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Off-topic => The rest => Topic started by: ASILurker on February 23, 2019, 06:43:04 AM

Title: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on February 23, 2019, 06:43:04 AM
Who is your Preferred Choice today to be the Democratic Party Presidential Nominee in 2020?

Not who you think will win it, but who you want to win it.

This is a Pre-Primary Poll which closes on 31st Dec 2019.

You can change your Vote at any time.

Non-Americans are encouraged to cast your Vote too.


Current RCP Polling
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Wiki 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primaries information to date
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on February 23, 2019, 10:04:35 AM
Bernie for President!

Warren as the vice.

That's my personal dream team.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: karl dubhe2 on February 23, 2019, 12:27:23 PM
Go Pete, go!

I'd love to see him take a victory over You-Know-Who.

Young, has a good beard...
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2019, 01:19:33 PM
"Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn" - on this forum.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: oren on February 23, 2019, 02:19:34 PM
Bernie, the only one who can and will make a big change about climate change.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 23, 2019, 02:40:06 PM
I agree with Rhett.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Rob Dekker on February 24, 2019, 09:51:08 AM
I was with Bernie in 2016 and am with him for 2020.

His policies, across the board, align with my own opinions about justice.
Economically, politically and environmentally.

Knowing what we got with Trump, maybe we all realize that :

(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRyDYOS97WT_paWIPL6Xd5XAJ1B7VxP0JYIP_8suJZmtru6RHhV)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ritter on February 25, 2019, 05:55:41 PM
Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ritter on February 26, 2019, 06:00:31 PM
Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.

Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like?

I'd check the record if I were you. She has repeatedly cleared that up and apologised.

Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton too) was elected multiple times not supporting Gay marriage and outright being against it - they changed their minds on that.

But Gabbard has gone much further than either of those tow did. She means it, they did not.
Yes, she has apologized. Who knows what's in her heart.

Honestly, all the dem candidates have things I don't like, primarily around gun control as a tenet of electability--a very restrictive policy platform that has much better root cause solutions that would actually reduce all violence and that don't erode an enumerated right (rather not get too far into the weeds on this since I know it's a minority opinion on this board and isn't central to any of the discussions here). But those root cause solutions actually require real work to bring up the poor and provide equal access, something Republicans will never acknowledge and Corporate Dems won't address either.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 26, 2019, 06:28:02 PM
Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.

Being Californian and witnessing Harris for several yeas, I won't vote for her. She's an opportunist/corporate Dem in progressive clothing, no question about it.

Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like?

I'd check the record if I were you. She has repeatedly cleared that up and apologised.

Barack Obama (and Hillary Clinton too) was elected multiple times not supporting Gay marriage and outright being against it - they changed their minds on that.

But Gabbard has gone much further than either of those tow did. She means it, they did not.
Yes, she has apologized. Who knows what's in her heart.

Honestly, all the dem candidates have things I don't like, primarily around gun control as a tenet of electability--a very restrictive policy platform that has much better root cause solutions that would actually reduce all violence and that don't erode an enumerated right (rather not get too far into the weeds on this since I know it's a minority opinion on this board and isn't central to any of the discussions here). But those root cause solutions actually require real work to bring up the poor and provide equal access, something Republicans will never acknowledge and Corporate Dems won't address either.

Yes, the parties have become quite restrictive in what their respective candidates are allowed to support.  Very few people align with either party on all issues, why should the candidates?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ritter on February 26, 2019, 06:45:42 PM
Very few people align with either party on all issues, why should the candidates?

Most of the Dem candidates are right in line with the DNC platform. Sanders, less so. I suppose at this point in time, I expect some outside of the box thinking by those running and create some policy that will advance goals of: environmental quality, affordable health care and education, a functioning mental health and social support system and protection of rights. Instead, we get the same policy of incrementalism on those issues topped with a whopping serving of gun control as the most pressing thing in the US. It just isn't. The Green New Deal is about the best breath of fresh air I've seen in my lifetime and the establishment Dems are doing their best to erode it.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on February 27, 2019, 12:11:15 AM
Longer discussions are best had on this thread

Who should be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020?
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2200.0.html
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 27, 2019, 01:41:52 AM

Most of the Dem candidates are right in line with the DNC platform.

That is too bad.  I would like to some fresh, independent ideas.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on February 27, 2019, 02:57:16 AM
Leader Board Combining the Two Polls to date 24th February

Total Votes 34

1) Bernie Sanders    13 Votes 38%

2) Kamala Harris      4 Votes 12%
2) Elizabeth Warren  4 Votes 12%

3) Tulsi Gabbard      3 Votes  9%

             Their Votes equal 71%

You irresponsible bunch of radicals you are.

I'll do this less often as the months go on .. but fwiw now 27-02

Combined results - Total Votes 41

Top Three
Bernie - 16 - 39%
Harris - 6 - 15%
Warren - 5 - 12%

Their Votes equal 66%

In national polling Joe Biden is still up around 30%

I think this race is going to be more interesting and more dramatic than 2008 or 2016 (gut feel)

Only 350 Days to the 2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary

Only 616 Days to the Election Day :)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on February 27, 2019, 06:00:18 PM
Political Forecast - Election Predictions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPmuUo4UOec
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on February 28, 2019, 12:27:51 AM
Political Forecast - Election Predictions


Thanks that was fascinating insights.

Here's the link to the source info
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on February 28, 2019, 03:00:01 PM
Political Forecast - Election Predictions


Thanks that was fascinating insights.

Here's the link to the source info
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

I tend to agree.  If Biden runs, he will be the front runner and likely nominee.  He probably has the best chance of winning too.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: colchonero on March 09, 2019, 11:50:22 AM
Daily Kos independent visitor Poll
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/3/5/1839795/-Test-2-W-Poll

23210 votes - Who is your preferred candidate for President?

Bernie Sanders  70%
Andrew Yang 12%
Tulsi Gabbard 6%

Harris 3%
Warren 2%
Joe Biden 1%


Well there's a realistic poll ;D 8)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Paddy on March 10, 2019, 02:40:58 PM
I honestly don't know. I look at each name and think either "not him/her" and "who"s that?"

To those backing Bernie: I kind of like him, but do you not see his age as an obstacle? The oldest ever elected president was Reagan, who was 73 at the time of his second election. Bernie will be 78 in September. 
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 10, 2019, 03:17:12 PM
What do you think is the max age and why, Paddy?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Paddy on March 10, 2019, 07:29:35 PM
It's not that I think there should be a specific cut off, but being of an age at which more than half of American men would already be dead would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning (the Republicans came up with a lot of bs about Hillary's health, and she was a lot younger) and for doing the job itself.

Sanders and Biden are just a tad too old to inspire the confidence of swing voters etc. Sanders even looked a bit too old at the time of the *last* primaries, and he's not getting any younger.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 10, 2019, 08:16:09 PM
Thank you for your answer Paddy. Allow me to debunk that.

It's not that I think there should be a specific cut off

Good, he fits this criterium.  ;)

Quote
but being of an age at which more than half of American men would already be dead

There are younger presidents died younger, and there are Americans being older.

He seems healthy, so this is pretty arbitrary.

In most societies, it is assumed an older person is wiser and more experienced. I can't see how this shouldn't also be a consideration for the most important job in the world.

Quote
would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning

There is a huge grassroots army out there helping. I do not worry about that at all.

More than 1 million volunteers, the many small donations, word to mouth this is gonna be big!

Also, damn, he is a really good campaigner. Did he campaign his ass off for Hillary, or not?

Quote
(the Republicans came up with a lot of bs about Hillary's health, and she was a lot younger)

Idk man, the GOP smear machine will find smears no matter what. The Democratic candidate ought to wins with their agenda.

Quote
swing voters

To quote AOC here: " But he does!"

Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: oren on March 10, 2019, 10:47:48 PM
I sure wish he was younger, but nobody's perfect.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 11, 2019, 07:23:18 AM
Our policy failed, we need to bend the knee.

Why there needs to be a candidate from the "radical left".

Neoliberal Policy Architect: Whoops!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmmbZLp3D34
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Paddy on March 11, 2019, 06:39:28 PM
Thank you for your answer Paddy.

You're welcome - thank you too!

Quote

He seems healthy, so this is pretty arbitrary.

In most societies, it is assumed an older person is wiser and more experienced. I can't see how this shouldn't also be a consideration for the most important job in the world.

It's also noted in most workplaces that performqnce drops with age. Athletes in most disciplines peak by 30, surgeons about age 40, and most people retire around age 60 or 65. Many who try to stay on later still end up being unproductive and often a bit of a problem for their colleagues.  Past 80, he's going to be accruing health problems pretty quickly however perky he looks at 77, as entropy inevitably takes its toll.

Quote
Quote
would seem distinctly disadvantageous, both for campaigning

There is a huge grassroots army out there helping. I do not worry about that at all.

More than 1 million volunteers, the many small donations, word to mouth this is gonna be big!

Also, damn, he is a really good campaigner. Did he campaign his ass off for Hillary, or not?


Was. Was a good campaigner. And Hillary still didn't win, of course.

He's going to be slower now than he was then, physically and mentally. When Dems have won in the last few decades, it's been with candidates who were young, charismatic and energetic (Barrack Obama, Bill Clinton).  They need someone who can do now what they did then, and no 78 year old on earth would fit that bill.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 11, 2019, 07:23:19 PM
Noam Chomsky at age 91 is still Americas brightest thinker. The mind tends to grow with age unless you are mentally unhealthy like the acting president* indeed is.

Bernie is not candidating for being an athlete so i don't really get your point.

We have to agree to strongly disagree Paddy. ;)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Paddy on March 12, 2019, 08:13:43 PM
Noam Chomsky at age 91 is still Americas brightest thinker. The mind tends to grow with age unless you are mentally unhealthy like the acting president* indeed is.

On the contrary, cognitive decline is part of the normal aging process https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4906299, even if you're lucky enough to avoid dementia, stroke, head injury or brain mets.

Quote
Bernie is not candidating for being an athlete so i don't really get your point.

It wasn't the best point, I'll confess... but the truth is that general physical decline begins in early adulthood.

Quote
We have to agree to strongly disagree Paddy. ;)

Maybe so.  But just out of curioaity: how old would a candidate need to be before you had second thoughts on thst basis? 85? 90?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 12, 2019, 09:05:12 PM
It's the agenda that counts for me entirely Paddy. I don't have an age limit, i have an issue limit. :)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ritter on March 14, 2019, 04:20:40 PM
Currently, I'd vote for Sanders first and Gabbard second. Gabbard has some anti LGBTQ baggage that I don't like.
Beto O’Rourke has stated he's running. He's moved to first place for me based on his statements surrounding the urgency of climate change. 12 years to get it done. Sanders is now second.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 15, 2019, 01:47:26 PM
Tamino on Why you need to support Jay Inslee, even though you’d rather choose another candidate (https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/03/15/why-you-need-to-support-jay-inslee-even-though-youd-rather-choose-another-candidate/)
Quote


So I suggest you throw your support 100% behind the candidate who I don’t think can get the nomination. Jay Inslee.

What??? Why would I suggest you not only support, but vigourously support the guy I think won’t even get the nomination? Let me tell you.



If you love Bernie, keep Jay in the race so when the bitch-slaps come, the only ones left standing are Jay and Bernie. If you love Elizabeth, give her the bitch-slap she desperately needs, not just to get the nomination and the presidency, but to do right by us when she does.

Whoever gets the democratic nomination, needs to hear Jay Inslee’s voice loud and clear, right on their heels.

Tamino usually makes sense.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 15, 2019, 02:18:22 PM
So, it's either a strong candidate with good climate action or a candidate with great climate action but less popular.

Also, it's either seeing Bernie win the primaries or seeing Kamela* win because the vote was split between Jay and Bernie.

*maybe Beto even...!?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on March 16, 2019, 03:02:28 AM
Tamino usually makes sense.  (?)

So Tamino still believes the illusion that whoever wins the Democrat primary and the US Presidency will actually make a difference to the global climate crisis and the GHG emissions of the USA into the future. Gosh they might even be able to roll out a Green New Deal ... wow.

Seriously?

There's one born every minute.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Paddy on March 17, 2019, 01:10:49 PM
Eh, with a democratic congress they may make some difference. Obama was a bit hamstrung.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: oren on March 17, 2019, 01:23:44 PM
A little difference is better than nothing. It's not as if there are other alternatives that will make a big difference.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on March 17, 2019, 08:03:40 PM
Eh, with a democratic congress they may make some difference. Obama was a bit hamstrung.

Really?  He had two years of total control, and focused on an economic stimulus package and the affordable care act. 
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 18, 2019, 10:07:07 AM
Bernie Sanders Frontrunner Wisconsin Democratic Primary Poll Emerson March 2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F0LR6uXhxg8
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Neven on March 18, 2019, 11:55:22 PM
I've added Andrew Yang (https://www.yang2020.com/) to the list.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on April 10, 2019, 08:44:38 AM
 Who’s Leading Now

The figures are broken out among Democratic primary voters nationwide and in early primary states, which includes just voters who live in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, or Nevada.

The latest results are based on 13,644 interviews with registered voters, collected from April 1-7 2019.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Pete Buttigieg Mayor, has jumped 2% to 5% in about 2 weeks.
Biden and Sanders both dropped ~3% in recent weeks.

Second Choices: Where Voters Could Migrate

This to me is the most curious aspect of voter polling at this time -- about 30% of current Biden and Warren supporters would switch to Bernie if those two dropped out.

 If Bernie Sanders dropped out 33% would go to Biden, and 17% to Warren.

If when Harris dropped out 20% would go to Biden, and 14% each to Sanders and O'Rourke.

If when O'Rouke drops out, 25% would jump to Biden and 21% to Sanders.

 What this tells me atm is that there is a strong identification of most voters towards both Sanders and Biden no matter which one they primarily support. This leaning is much stronger than all the others in the race whose polling seems more "scattered" but still leans heavily to BOTH Biden and Sanders. 

Reading the tea leaves here but considering history patterns and recent polling, to me it shows that if Biden was to run and drop out, and if Sanders is doing ok then a very high majority of DEMS (25-35% or even more) will switch automatically enmass to Sanders, and not the others.
And the reverse is also true but it's not quite as strong a leaning. I think that is really interesting and worth following where it is at in early 2020 and if Biden does run, what happens then.

 Now I am going to update the candidate poll list as at 9th April.

Feel free to change your choice anytime.

Now with 21 Candidate options, plus "someone/anyone" else or don't give a dam :)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on April 25, 2019, 01:01:55 PM
As Joseph Biden throws his hat in the ring. Excitement plus?

https://www.politico.com/news/joe-biden-2020-presidential-election
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: ASILurker on April 25, 2019, 01:07:27 PM
Latest from https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

A two horse race?

1
Joe Biden Former Vice President
30%

2
Bernie Sanders U.S. Senator
24%

3
Pete Buttigieg Mayor
9%

4
Kamala Harris U.S. Senator
8%

5
Elizabeth Warren U.S. Senator
7%

6
Beto O'Rourke Former U.S. Representative
6%

7
Cory Booker U.S. Senator
4%

8
Amy Klobuchar U.S. Senator
2%
Andrew Yang Business Person
2%

10
Julian Castro Former Secretary, HUD
1%
Tulsi Gabbard U.S. Representative
1%
Kirsten Gillibrand U.S. Senator
1%
John Hickenlooper Former Governor
1%
Jay Inslee Governor
1%
Tim Ryan U.S. Representative
1%
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on April 25, 2019, 04:30:19 PM
I really expect a two-horse race.  The big question is how long the other candidates remain in the race, and how many delegates they retain.  I suspect most will drop out and throw their support to one or the other.  The party bosses wants to avoid a brokered convention, and may just push Biden over the top.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Ken Feldman on April 25, 2019, 10:09:02 PM
In April 2015, Sen. Rubio (FL) held a narrow lead over Gov. Jeb Bush (FL) and Gov. Scott Walker (WI) for the Republican nomination.  Walker dropped out before the primaries, Bush did nothing but had the money to hang around for a while, and Rubio waited until losing in Florida before dropping out.

So polls 8 to 9 months before the primaries begin aren't the best indicator of who's going to be the nominee.  It will be interesting to see how the candidates hold up as the debates begin and name recognition fades as the main factor separating candidates.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Ken Feldman on April 25, 2019, 10:28:52 PM
Here's an interesting article on how Sander's polling numbers compare to other candidates who had national name recognition from previous elections.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/ (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-can-win-but-he-isnt-polling-like-a-favorite/)

Quote
1.While Sanders is one of perhaps a dozen candidates with a plausible shot at the nomination, the field is fairly wide open, and it’s too early to say how formidable he is.
2.It’s also too early to conclude very much about Sanders’s “electability” against Trump, especially in comparison to other Democrats.
3.Finally, even if they wanted to stop Sanders, it’s too early for the party establishment to know how to go about doing that — without more input from rank-and-file voters, any move meant to hinder Sanders could backfire.

Each one of these claims could be the subject of a long post — so I just want to focus on the first one for today and leave the others for later.

To be clear, I think Sanders can win the Democratic nomination. He’s probably the 3rd- or 4th- most likely nominee, in my estimation — slightly behind Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and roughly tied with Pete Buttigieg, but ahead of everyone else. All of these candidates (and others such as Elizabeth Warren and Beto O’Rourke) have their own assets and liabilities, so I wouldn’t go to the mat if you put them in a different order.

But sometimes, I get the sense from Sanders backers — or from other election analysts who look at the polls a little differently than I do, or from traditional reporters — that they think Sanders’s strength in the polls is being ignored. Empirically, however, Sanders’s position in the polls is not all that strong; it’s consistent with sometimes winning the nomination but usually not.

Quote
Across the board, those numbers are well down from 2016 — when Sanders got 43 percent of the vote nationally, along with 50 percent in Iowa and 60 percent in New Hampshire.

You could take a glass-half-full view of this for Sanders, however. Sure, he isn’t getting as many votes as last time around, but you wouldn’t expect him to in a field that already includes 17 major candidates, rather than just Sanders and Hillary Clinton. And 20 percent or 30 percent of the vote could still be good enough for first place in the early states.

Historically, though, candidates who are polling at only about 20 percent nationally despite the near-universal name recognition that Sanders enjoys don’t have a great track record.

The story goes on to list 15 candidates who had similar polling leading up to the primaries, and only three of them won the nomination, Obama, Romney and McCain.  Then it describes other factors that lead up to winning delegates for the nominating convention.

Quote
You could also argue that the three winning candidates from the list — Barack Obama and John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 — aren’t good comparisons for Sanders, especially from a “The Party Decides” standpoint where preferences among party insiders and activists are leading indicators of voter preferences. Romney, for instance, had the backing of the GOP party establishment as a potential consensus choice, whereas Sanders largely lacks it from Democrats. Obama was a rising star, rather than someone left over from a previous cycle, and gained a lot of momentum among party elites as the 2008 cycle wore on, even if they also liked Clinton. McCain, who ran against the party establishment in 2000 but was someone the party could live with in 2008, is in some ways the most favorable comparison for Sanders.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Steven on May 01, 2019, 11:38:44 AM
Latest polls: Biden is far ahead of the others.  Sanders lost some ground.  Warren is now in third place and Buttigieg in fourth place.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-is-way-out-in-front-second-place-is-anyones-guess/

Average results of the four polls released yesterday:

Biden      36%
Sanders  16%
Warren     9%
Buttigieg   7%
Harris        6%
O'Rourke   5%
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on May 01, 2019, 02:16:54 PM
I suspect that Biden will run away with the nomination.  There are many high up in the party that feel he is their best chance to unseat Trump, and will throw their weight behind him.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Steven on June 28, 2019, 10:19:13 PM
Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris did very well in the first Democratic debate(s).  Joe Biden underperformed.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/democratic-debate-poll/

Quote
Among all 20 candidates, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Julián Castro earned the highest scores for their debate performances relative to their favorability rating before they took the stage, according to the voters in our poll. Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker also rated well, but their scores were more in line with their pre-debate favorability.

(https://i.imgur.com/wRxgiUG.png)
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 07:07:07 AM
Biden in neutral? I'm laughing my ass off here.

Harris tarred and feathered him with works. And then he cried and lied.

Silver is so full of shit...
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Steven on July 06, 2019, 10:47:23 AM
Several new polls have been released this week.  Biden is still clearly in first place but lost some ground.  The difference between 2nd and 4th place is quite small: Sanders, Harris and Warren are nearly tied in the polling average.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/democratic_nomination_polls/

Average results of the 7 polls released between 30 June and 3 July:

Biden       28%
Sanders   15%
Harris       14%
Warren    13%
Buttigieg    5%
O'Rourke    2%
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 06, 2019, 11:43:05 AM
Bidens supporter will jump the bandwagon faster than he can, so he will drop out soonish.

Leaves us with Sanders, Harris, and Warren.

The mainstream media will prop up Harris, that's for sure because she is the least progressive.

Of course, corporate America hates Sanders, so he will need any support. Go out there and ring some bells!
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Steven on October 09, 2019, 08:20:36 PM
Warren has taken the lead in the RCP polling average: she's now slightly ahead of Biden.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Warren    27%
Biden       26%
Sanders   15%
Buttigieg    6%
Harris        4%
Yang          3%
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Rob Dekker on November 10, 2019, 09:58:11 AM
Update on the realclearpolitics poll average : I prefer Sanders, but it seems that the US public still prefers Biden.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

One reason may be a reality check :
The US is fed-up with Trump's hypocrisy, and wants a return to the reason and integrity and normalcy of the Obama period.
Which is Biden.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 10, 2019, 01:48:24 PM
Rob, that makes a ton of sense.  I do not believe that the candidates that talked the Obama administration did themselves any help during the last debate.  The best thing Biden did at the debate was defend Obama.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 10, 2019, 01:57:34 PM
Oh, right. Obama the glowing hero.

The hero who bombed and killed worldwide just like his Republican preprocessors. Surely a true American hero.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 10, 2019, 06:11:56 PM
Oh, right. Obama the glowing hero.

The hero who bombed and killed worldwide just like his Republican preprocessors. Surely a true American hero.

You are but one vote.  The majority of Americans feel differently.  Alienating those voters is not a good strategy to win an election.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 10, 2019, 06:17:57 PM
Sadly, i'm not even a vote, Kat.

A majority of Americans want universal healthcare, want to stop never-ending wars, want clean air and water. And there are many more problems Obama never even tried to touch.

If it means alienating conservatives when you stubbornly demand those changes and blame the murderous politics of past presidents, i'm fine with that.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 10, 2019, 06:38:57 PM
Sadly, i'm not even a vote, Kat.

A majority of Americans want universal healthcare, want to stop never-ending wars, want clean air and water. And there are many more problems Obama never even tried to touch.

If it means alienating conservatives when you stubbornly demand those changes and blame the murderous politics of past presidents, i'm fine with that.

Conservatives?  I would hardly call Obama supporters conservative.  Sure, they are many problems, none of the past presidents addressed, and it has been almost a century (perhaps longer) since a president did not bomb anyone.

  From I have read, the majority of Americans do not want universal healthcare. 
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 10, 2019, 06:58:39 PM
When the politics is conservative, everyone voting for the guy voted conservative.

The above-mentioned politics is extremely conservative.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sidd on November 10, 2019, 07:49:11 PM
Re: the majority of Americans do not want universal healthcare. 

cite ? Here is one poll that says a majority do want universal health care

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/279991-poll-majority-of-americans-support-federally-funded-healthcare

here's a couple more:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/08/new-poll-majority-of-gop-voters-support-medicare-for-all.html

https://www.healthpopuli.com/2019/01/24/americans-are-warming-to-universal-health-care-kaiser-poll-finds/

sidd
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Neven on November 10, 2019, 08:16:54 PM
Quote
cite ?

He's just parroting establishment media. Just like a lot of polls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgrmJBkm9jY
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Rob Dekker on November 11, 2019, 05:47:21 AM
Regarding polling for the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Nomination fivethirtyeight.com has a great collection of polls both broad and deep :

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/

Enter "National Polls" for an overview of nation-wide polls.
Or enter your favorite state and see the polls for that state.

They also include the time period when each poll was taken, and a rating for the quality of each poll.

All in all, a very valuable resource.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Neven on November 11, 2019, 01:27:14 PM
Very, very reliable. Too bad they had to let Roger Pielke go.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 11, 2019, 07:28:42 PM
Re: the majority of Americans do not want universal healthcare. 

cite ? Here is one poll that says a majority do want universal health care

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/279991-poll-majority-of-americans-support-federally-funded-healthcare

here's a couple more:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/08/new-poll-majority-of-gop-voters-support-medicare-for-all.html

https://www.healthpopuli.com/2019/01/24/americans-are-warming-to-universal-health-care-kaiser-poll-finds/

sidd

One needs to dig a little deeper into the polling numbers.  Yes, the majority want some sort of government-provided healthcare, but very few want a government-only system (13%).  Conversely, very few want a private-only system (15%).  Most want some sort or private/government mix.  Of course, those pushing one form or the other can manipulate these figures to their own advantage.  We all know about liars and statisticians.

https://thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/428958-poll-voters-want-the-government-to-provide-healthcare-for
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 11, 2019, 07:36:13 PM
Kat, imagine you would run an insurance company. Who would you rather insure a bunch of young healthy folks or the same amount of ill elderlies?

Or when it comes to the size of the company, would it be better to have a small number of folks inured where one cancer patient could bankrupt the company versus a really large pool where you can balance out the risk?

Now, put those measures on the thing you just proposed. How would that work?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sedziobs on November 11, 2019, 10:30:19 PM
Round and round we go. I'm having flashbacks to almost exactly one year ago.

Quote
Medicare-for-all gets nearly two-thirds support, but a “single-payer health insurance system” is a little more divisive: 48 percent have a positive reaction, and 32 percent have a negative reaction; the gap between favor and disfavor closes considerably. Medicare buy-ins poll the highest, with the support of three-fourths of Americans, including 6 out of 10 Republicans.

You could absolutely argue these numbers still seem pretty strong for single-payer described as such, given the conventional wisdom that such a plan is unworkable. But it is undoubtedly true that Medicare-for-all, as a slogan, is more popular — as are some of these more incremental policies, like giving people the option of buying into Medicare.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/2/17468448/medicare-for-all-single-payer-health-care-2018-elections (https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/7/2/17468448/medicare-for-all-single-payer-health-care-2018-elections)

Same with free college tuition.  Conservatives want that too.  But they don't want to raise their taxes to pay for it.
Quote
Just 57 percent of free higher ed supporters would agree to coughing up more for Uncle Sam to get there.
https://www.ozy.com/acumen/ozy-poll-free-college-for-everyone/80096 (https://www.ozy.com/acumen/ozy-poll-free-college-for-everyone/80096)

That's the main point I am making.  Conservatives support progressive ideas generally, but are opposed to the costs of their implementation.  It's a problem that can't be wished away.

In a 2018 Gallup poll (https://news.gallup.com/poll/1666/military-national-defense.aspx), only 13% thought the military was stronger than it needs to be.  39% said it's not strong enough, and 46% think it's just right.  68% think it's important for the US to be the world's #1 military power.  Middle America loves its military.

Of course everyone wants living wages, ending student debt, and medicare.  I don't need to look at opinion polls to understand that.  Conservatives want those goals achieved through the private sector.  They're not going to support federal programs that will raise their taxes.  I don't have to use the socialism label, they'll do it for me.

Then there's the issue of abortion, which makes single-issue voters out of many theocrats.  They're not going to be swayed by you or me standing for what is right.  I live among them, they're ideologues.  You said it well, "They cling to their identity and conditioning, to their need of an enemy, to their little socio-economic bubble, oblivious of universal principles and the needs and feelings of people who have it worse than them." (Yes, I know you were referring to me.)  This indicates that you are aware that the status quo is ingrained and won't change just by pushing ideals, whether it's Republicans! or liberals like me who just want to please the mommy and daddy in their heads.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 12, 2019, 02:50:33 AM
I think you are right.  People like the idea, but balk at the cost.  In order to receive similar care as they are receiving today, the costs are quite high.  Warren’s claim that all these costs can be borne by the rich is a fallacy.  At least Sanders admits that taxes must go up for everyone in order to pay for his plan.  Getting the people to support this is the real stickler.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sidd on November 12, 2019, 07:16:58 AM
Re: costs are quite high

Of course they are. Your regulators are bought, your politicians are bought. Look at the costs in other countries and compare.

sidd
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Neven on November 12, 2019, 10:32:50 AM
At least Sanders admits that taxes must go up for everyone in order to pay for his plan.  Getting the people to support this is the real stickler.

People support it because their premiums will go down, and so they save money. Cutting out the middlemen saves money, everybody gets that. Unless you confuse that understanding by sowing disinformation. Stop doing that here, please.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: TerryM on November 12, 2019, 02:11:54 PM
I doubt that there is a Canadian that would settle for "similar care as (Americans) are receiving today". Medical personnel would certainly be up in arms.
Two of the 5 specialists I see formerly worked in the States, neither plans to return.


I've been told that some of the European health care services are superior to Ontario's.
Terry
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sedziobs on November 12, 2019, 03:55:57 PM
It doesn't really matter why people support single payer, or why any of us think it is the best system. It only matters that most are not yet willing to vote for it. Much of the country will not vote for a tax increase, and they are not going to research other countries. Conservatives and many independents are against increasing the size of the federal government in just about every way except military spending.

Electing Sanders would be a good first step. A Democratic senate will also be required. If it gets passed, I'd expect a conservative backlash like the Tea Party against Obamacare, and much will be undone. This cycle should repeat until demographics are such that the older generations in both parties have lost influence. I'm still of the opinion that lasting change will not be realized until progressives are being elected in rural middle America.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 12, 2019, 04:34:44 PM
Unless you confuse that understanding by sowing disinformation.

I wonder how stupid one has to be to hear that any country in the world with single-payer only pays half of the cost for healthcare and still think this is not applicable to the US.

At this point, any discussion about the topic should be over.

Kat, i asked you once if you think that Americans are too stupid to pull that off. You never answered i think. So let me ask again. What is your argument to why it's possible in any random country in the world but not the US?

I suggest you stop talking about the topic unless you can answer this question without BS.

Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 12, 2019, 04:42:30 PM
Much of the country will not vote for a tax increase, and they are not going to research other countries. Conservatives and many independents are against increasing the size of the federal government in just about every way except military spending.

If you ask people on the issues, they are progressive.

But people don't remember the issues and who is proposing what when they vote.

You can change that by talking about the issues and how candidates differ. You can't wait for the media to do that because it will not happen with a for-profit media landscape.

Dear American people: It's either you do this democracy thing or no one does it. Call people, ring doors. This time it really matters!
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 12, 2019, 07:34:35 PM
Unless you confuse that understanding by sowing disinformation.

I wonder how stupid one has to be to hear that any country in the world with single-payer only pays half of the cost for healthcare and still think this is not applicable to the US.

At this point, any discussion about the topic should be over.

Kat, i asked you once if you think that Americans are too stupid to pull that off. You never answered i think. So let me ask again. What is your argument to why it's possible in any random country in the world but not the US?

I suggest you stop talking about the topic unless you can answer this question without BS.

It is not a matter of the Americans being too stupid.  Rather, it is a matter of what they want.  They look at the system in other countries and see lower costs for lower care.  Many would argue that we should get lower care, as many tests and/or procedures are unnecessary.  On the other hand, some want the extra precautions and elective surgeries.  The other difference is the speed at which non-critical care occurs in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world.  Lastly, there are those who would rather take the chance of not needing healthcare, and spending their money elsewhere.  Many ignore these people, because they cannot fathom the idea that some people choose to be uninsured.  This should come as no surprise, compared to the numbers that do not have life insurance, fire insurance, etc.

How is that for an answer without BS?
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 12, 2019, 09:04:57 PM
I didn't ask for your view of what people want but for a counterargument.

The 'what people want' question is addressed upthread!
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Neven on November 12, 2019, 10:21:35 PM
How is that for an answer without BS?

Very, very bad. 'Lower care' is pure BS.

I suggest you restrict yourself to the Arctic sea ice part of the Forum.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: TerryM on November 12, 2019, 11:32:40 PM
KK
Other countries haven't settled for lower care levels, or longer wait times, they simply supply better care at lower cost. American voters aren't particularly stupid, they just grew up in a propaganda bubble that is making a few of them obscenely wealthy even as it reduces everyone else to penury.


I was told by Nevada's best doctors that I had <6 months to live. I promptly sold everything and came back to Canada for a final look at the country of my birth. That was in 2004!


In my first week back my cancer had been confirmed and the operation completed. It was a few months before my neurological problems came out of remission and could be treated - a treatment that was simply far to expensive for my HMO to offer. Within a few months I left my cane behind and could actually run - not too far or to fast, but running, not hobbling on a cane!


At the moment it's been 10 years since the cancer has last reappeared, and my CIDP hasn't raised it's head for even longer. I'm still a very long way from being healthy, but I've outlived the majority of my peers in Las Vegas & I'm sure that when my time does come I will have had the best care available anywhere, and my family won't be out a nickel.


I've been very ill in both countries. I've experience with both plans. Anyone voting for the status quo in the US is simply the victim of a very evil propaganda campaign & the successful lobbying efforts of Big Pharma and the AMA.


Keeping people healthy is much less expensive than trying to keep them alive for a few weeks or months after years of neglect have taken their toll. Don't fall for any of the BS that's being fed to you.
Terry
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 13, 2019, 12:34:30 AM
How is that for an answer without BS?

Very, very bad. 'Lower care' is pure BS.

I suggest you restrict yourself to the Arctic sea ice part of the Forum.

Fine.  Less care if you are going to nitpick. 
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sidd on November 13, 2019, 12:46:30 AM
Re: They look at the system in other countries and see lower costs for lower care.

Anyone stating that is misled or lying.  Other countries in the west have far lower costs for superior care. 

sidd

Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 13, 2019, 12:57:23 AM
Re: They look at the system in other countries and see lower costs for lower care.

Anyone stating that is misled or lying.  Other countries in the west have far lower costs for superior care. 

sidd

See previous post for clarification.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: sidd on November 13, 2019, 07:37:36 AM
Define "lower care" perhaps ?

A huge expense as billed comes from end of life care in the USA. Other countries have more realistic views on where the money should be spent. If that is "lower care" i say lower away. I have seen far too many cases of US doctors overruled by family on keeping the poor sod alive with multiple tubes for multiple weeks in vegetative state with no benefit except to the US medical industry. And leaving the family with crushing debt.

Fuck that noise. I have experienced and witnessed medical care in several countries, as have many here, and when we tell you that the US medical system sucks,  we are speaking from experience.

But really, what we on the forum think is irrelevant. For this thread, what matters is if a public health care system like sanders is enuf to sink him as candidate. I doubt it.

sidd
 


Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: bbr2314 on November 13, 2019, 10:45:01 AM
I change my vote to Bloomberg / Buttigieg

Bloomberg will crush kill destroy the competition if he does actually run

Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on November 13, 2019, 07:37:08 PM
Of course, you do, Bbr.
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Ktb on November 14, 2019, 04:28:34 AM
I change my vote to Bloomberg

"You know who is disenfranchised and needs more power? The 14th wealthiest person alive today!"
Title: Re: Poll for the Democratic Party's Nomination for U.S. President in 2020
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 16, 2019, 01:35:57 PM
Ian McKellen.  ::) :P :-\ ;)