Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: sark on May 18, 2019, 10:47:40 PM

Title: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 18, 2019, 10:47:40 PM
Opening this new thread in response to long range weather forecasting discussions in the main melt season thread.  From pages 14-15..  Anything goes.

I would propose a 'Long Term Weather Forcast Thread'.

There are obviously people not interested in this kind of content. By having it in a separate thread they could easily avoid it. And the ones interested wouldn't feel restricted and could post freely.

and I'll open with my "Autosquint" 500mb anomaly 21 day comp mean, with one of today's GFS runs tacked on to the end

This could use a synopsis of the SSW style final warming of 2019, with the ensuing coupled barotropic polar atmosphere that has beaten into the high north.  Analogues, models, papers

I feel like it'll calm down once the snow melts, but 2019 is a continuation of a really disappointing trend.  I spent 3 days curled in a ball last week.  I'm not a scientist and I don't play one so I can say this: The polar cell is failing.  It has been for years.  The trend is not your friend, but it's still a trend... and the emerging trend has to be indicative of the drastic, faster-than-expected breakdown of the polar cell.

What the hell is even happening?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: FishOutofWater on May 18, 2019, 11:30:18 PM
I wrote about what's happening over at a fading political blog the other day. Intense end warmings in the stratosphere have consequences. The sudden warming of the region from 60N to the pole from the surface to the top of the stratosphere is what I was referring to by the description "atmospheric convulsion." There's likely to be a horrific tornado outbreak on Monday and Tuesday as the storm that's now giving California a very late soaking reforms on the east side of the rocky mountains.

Zach Labe understands the physics of this situation better than I do - he's studying it for an advanced degree. I doubt he's reading this but I wouldn't mind being corrected if I made a mistake.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/5/15/1857911/-Atmospheric-Convulsion-Will-Cause-Historic-Disasters-of-Arctic-Melt-U-S-Storms-Next-Week
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: vox_mundi on May 19, 2019, 01:10:04 AM
Long-term weather starts to get into tele-connections ...

Hot Arctic and a Chill in the Northeast: What’s Behind the Gloomy Spring Weather?
https://blog.ucsusa.org/brenda-ekwurzel/hot-arctic-and-a-chill-in-the-northeast-whats-behind-the-gloomy-spring-weather

... It may seem counter-intuitive, but the story of the strange weather unfolding this spring in the US is related in part to snow last October in Eurasia. This indicator—the Eurasian October snow cover extent indicator—is proving to be worthy of additional attention by US weather geeks. The good news is that the scientists who were paying attention to the Eurasia snow extent behavior during October, along with a host of other indicators, gave advanced warning of the emerging US winter and spring weather pattern for 2018/2019. 

... I encourage those who want to know, to spend some time clicking on the links here or links in earlier blogs that point to even more information (see here, here, here, and here). These describe the details regarding how Arctic sea ice decline, particularly in the Barents-Kara sea ice, north of Scandinavia and Russia, contributes to ocean and atmosphere behavior. Which contributes to Eurasian snow cover extent behavior. And ultimately a wavy jet stream with episodic cold outbreaks over winter and spring in the Northern Hemisphere, including the US.

... Here is an example of the science as Judah Cohen explains, “There is a growing consensus that it is Barents-Kara sea ice in the late fall and early winter that has the greatest impact across Eurasia.  Therefore, low Barents-Kara sea ice in November for example, favors a strengthened Siberian high, increased poleward heat flux, a weak stratospheric Polar Vortex and finally a negative Arctic Oscillation. An important point regarding the Siberian high is that it strengthens or expands northwest of the climatological center.  For low snow cover and/or high sea ice the opposite occurs.”  Translation, a weakened polar vortex means more cold outbreaks deep into US territory like this past winter and spring. ...

North Atlantic Warming Hole Impacts Jet Stream
https://phys.org/news/2019-04-north-atlantic-hole-impacts-jet.html

The North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH), a region of reduced warming located in the North Atlantic Ocean, significantly affects the North Atlantic jet stream in climate simulations of the future, according to a team of researchers.

... To investigate how the development of the NAWH impacts the jet stream, the team conducted a series of large-ensemble, atmospheric model experiments in the CESM with prescribed SST and sea ice levels over three different time periods.

Their results indicate that the NAWH plays an important role in midlatitude atmospheric circulation changes in the model's future climate simulations.

"We found that it's really quite important for that region," said Gervais. "The NAWH seems to be elongating the jet even further and shifting it a little bit north. Instead of just thinking about how the tropics and arctic amplification are influencing the jet, we now also need to think about how this warming hole is going to influence the jet. These local changes in the North Atlantic jet are of a similar magnitude to the full climate-change response in the region, indicating that the North Atlantic warming hole could be an important additional factor in the tug of war on midlatitude circulation, that has received little attention."

Melissa Gervais et al, Impacts of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in Future Climate Projections: Mean Atmospheric Circulation and the North Atlantic jet, Journal of Climate (2019)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0647.1
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 26, 2019, 12:36:18 PM
1st image is ESRL 1000mb air temperature anomalies month by month, 2012-2018 compared to 1979-2000.  This shows that the temperatures have dropped significantly around Hudson Bay, especially in March April May.  The big signal here is that in recent years, the Polar Cell has elongated toward Hudson Bay and Siberia.  Meanwhile, ridging from both oceans has taken turns reaching into the Arctic and delivering those bursts of high temperature we all get excited about, the DMI 80N movers.  However, those Arctic incursions have always came singly, and not from both sides of the planet at the same time.

Dr Judah Cohen has published AER's summer temperature forecast.  https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

2nd image attached is AER's GEFS Polar Cap Height including forecast.  The current conditions are updated here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

3rd image is now a 7 day composite of the 500 mb anomaly from ESRL, and the 18Z GEFS 5 day averages tacked onto the end, which is what I stare at to guess where in the Arctic will get hit by these recurring short circuit ridges.  Looks like once this Bering Blast wears out, another long reaching ridge coming across the Kara Sea brings another big block of high pressure right to the pole.

Gav's weather vids on YouTube has been doing analogs and seasonal models of interest in the UK.  The analogs have been extremely interesting.  https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Michael Ventrice on Twitter: "With a strong suppressed phase of a Kelvin wave to pass the Western Hemisphere during early June, I'm thinking severe thunderstorm activity in the U.S. quiets down. Good news for parts of the Plains.  Early June likely meaning June 7-20+"

Michael Ventrice regularly reports on the synoptics and there's a great image here.  Little bit over my head with the MJO.  He's been "bearish" on El Nino lately. 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1132225653867204609?s=19

I've been staring at models until I can see it with my eyes shut.  I've been doing this because it seems like something is very wrong.

Firstly, GFS runs hot & is a little bit fast at the end.  When I see a high 500mb anomaly, the resulting action is much more diffuse and less sharp.  The GFS paints a bright dot on an area, reality waters it down.  Same amount of ink, just spread out.

The timing of GFS is a little bit fast in the 10-16 day.  Whatever it was developing speeds up at the smaller resolution and the temperature and speed runs away.  What is depicted turns out to be less energetic.

I like how it is "sensitive" and one run van vary widely from the next, but you get great indications of major moves 16-20 days out in the hour 384.

Yeah and it will suffer a heat wave right over the Beauforts area, above zero temps with high pressure in 15-20 days.  I guarantee it.

Ask me how I know

Someone asked me how I knew the Beaufort would be buried in high pressure & heat May 21-26.  I wanted to say something pithy about the value of long range GFS.  I mean, it's working.  But there's more to it. 

Hurricane Oscar, the last named hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic Season was turned out to sea and became and extratropical cyclone.  It entered the Arctic on November 1.  500mb charts from GFS and ECMWF showed it entraining with the polar cell and landing right at the north pole around November 5th.  Within days, the stratospheric polar vortex began ping ponging around the Arctic.  Displacement eventually yielded elongation, splitting, and a notable 3 PV setup.  The PV split worked its way down to the ground for 5 weeks, and then we had the major arctic air outbreaks of last winter.

Since all this happened, the flow has been often split and two major sections of polar cell depart the Arctic for colder land.  The two cells find separation while the jet stream reaches up from both oceans and short circuits at the pole.

4th image.  Big time separation.  There are now two areas of polar cell instead of one.  It is a repeating pattern of meandering, pinching in half, churning in heat at the pole, and then slapping back together again.  It repeats and repeats coming every 6 or 8 weeks.

Now you can expect there will be ridging from opposite sides of the planet at the same time, nearly reaching the pole simultaneously.  The aggressiveness of GFS often shows waves crossing the Arctic and landing on the other side of the planet.  In reality, it's a little bit less simultaneous, a little bit less of a short circuit.

So, what we can all see in the models is a new block of high pressure forming in Russia and then curling into the Arctic, buring the Kara Sea in high pressure and warmth incursion, and delivering another parcel of high pressure to the Arctic.  This is shown in the June 1-9 period.  It is accompanied by a ridge from the Pacific reaching toward the Beaufort.  Models are showing this one a little less energetic and low pressure begins to deepen in the region of Greenland & Baffin Bay around June 10.


Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 26, 2019, 12:41:30 PM
I made my guesses at beyond June 10th below
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: be cause on May 26, 2019, 01:01:22 PM
Great contributions Sark .. but could you please up size to 701pixel so that they don't all load together .. and eat up resources unnecessarily  ? Also allowes the viewer a little more control ..  cheers b.c.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2019, 10:05:42 PM
I made my guesses at beyond June 10th below
Brilliant work in both posts, Sark!

Thank you for condensing, presenting in imagery and describing what I've been wondering about.

I tend to agree - the GFS has been improving on predicting general regional conditions further out, if not the exact details to their distribution and intensity.

I think we've all been seeing the general pattern of HLHL around the pole, if not fully comprehending it. Though at times I've thought I've seen it divided out even further - HLHLHL or even HLHLHLHL; the overall takeaway is, the Polar cell has been blown to tatters, and circulation is becoming nearly as chaotic as water on the boil.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 26, 2019, 10:20:38 PM
Great contributions Sark .. but could you please up size to 701pixel so that they don't all load together .. and eat up resources unnecessarily  ? Also allowes the viewer a little more control ..  cheers b.c.

I haven't figured out how to correct the scaling & sizing issues of this forum yet, can you be more specific or point me to the right place to read about some better practice?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 26, 2019, 10:37:18 PM
I haven't figured out how to correct the scaling & sizing issues of this forum yet, can you be more specific or point me to the right place to read about some better practice?

It took me some time to understand that myself but i think i get it now:

If you post a GIF which is 700 pixels wide or high (or smaller), the forum software would load the GIF automagically without leaving you to decide if you want to download it. This is rather shitty for folks on throttled internet connections.

Now, if you chose to make the GIF 1 pixel wider or higher (701 pixels or more) you need to click it to download. If every GIF in a thread has this (bigger) size, you save data consumption on both sides, Nevens servers and your computer because you only download the GIF you really want to see opposed to all the GIFs in the thread.

If you have a GIF with 700 pixels, you can easily resize it to 701 pixels here >> https://ezgif.com/resize

When a GIF is very small in file size (i.e. less than 1MB), i wouldn't bother resizing, but the GIFs you posted above are very big file size wise. Those would be better if the user could decide if they want to download it ergo they should be 701 pixels.

I hope this makes sense. :) 
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: FishOutofWater on May 26, 2019, 11:42:27 PM
El Niño appears to be fading fast. The excess heat stored in the upper ocean, that drives El Niño, is exhausted.

As the impact of the intense end stratospheric warming fades along with the El Niño, expect weather patterns to shift and heat to build up in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. The Indian monsoon has been delayed but it could come on with a vengeance because of the heat build up in the north Indian ocean.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2019, 11:54:02 PM
El Niño appears to be fading fast. The excess heat stored in the upper ocean, that drives El Niño, is exhausted.
<snip>

Saw some of this elsewhere; the other take away I got from the graphing of sub-surface anomalies was that it doesn't suggest a flip into La Nina, but rather to more ENSO neutral conditions.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 26, 2019, 11:56:34 PM
fixed the heavy loading of gifs, thank you for the help
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 27, 2019, 08:23:42 AM
I think this belongs here:

Quote
Karsten Haustein has comparisons 'of previous model runs for current forecast time step', and they show that GFS forecast mostly run too hot.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg201291.html#msg201291

and

Quote
We should be very skeptical about GFS temperature predictions over snow and ice.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg201291.html#msg201291

The 'Comparison of previous model runs for current forecast time step (model bias)' is here >> http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php#forecast
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on May 27, 2019, 07:33:20 PM
Air temperatures in the Arctic.  This is DJF 1000mb potential temperature.  You'll get the same signal from 1000-850mb for air temperatures.

In the cylindrical view it has the character of a standing wave.  No wonder chaos reigns.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: be cause on May 27, 2019, 08:59:08 PM
Thanks sark and b.lumenkraft .. every little helps to save our planet .. cheers b.c.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 28, 2019, 02:36:00 AM
     NOAA's new FV3GFS replacement/upgrade for GFS scheduled to go live on June 24.  This is 3rd scheduled operational date, first delayed by shutdown, then they found a temperature bias issue which needed correction.  I think this time they will actually do it. 

     FV3GFS 1.0 not expected to provide better accuracy right away, but the new platform provides a better foundation for development.  Original plan call for extending hourly runs at 13km resolution from current 10 day limit out to 16 days.  (Current GFS runs at 35km resolution and 3-hour time steps for days 11-16).

   New model will make better use of the awesome new GOES East and West satellites.  (Think color TV vs B&W still pictures).

   A version 2.0 of FV3GFS planned for a year after 1.0 version.  2.0 will bring new physics package.  And about a year after that, timeline shows a possible resolution improvement down to 9km.  Improved ensemble forecast system scheduled for FY2020. No mention of seasonal forecasting until at least FY2023. 

   This all driven by playing catch-up with ECMWF that called Superstorm Sandy path change a day earlier than GFS.  Of ECMWF isn't standing still either.  This is the kind of arms race we need.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 31, 2019, 02:17:57 AM
As noted by Sedziobs in #1333 of the 2019 Melt Season forum:
A sneak peek at GFS FV3 running in parallel mode is at
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2019053012&fh=6 (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=nhem&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2019053012&fh=6)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 01, 2019, 04:24:31 AM
:0 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019053118&fh=0

That's a wave 4
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 01, 2019, 05:58:06 PM
Hour 108 T2anom from the interim GFS-FV3.  I find it interesting that the heat is stacking up right over the two cold poles that have been driving the polar atmosphere to circulate in two parcels.  what this means?

this model produced a wave 8/4 pattern in the final hour of yesterdays 18Z.  forecasters are offering views of wave 6, i dunno.

in my view, this June is going to be extremely chaotic & patterns hard to describe, but 8/4/2 makes sense given the splitness of the polar cell
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 01, 2019, 08:55:59 PM
Incredible FV3-test model run from last night.  These things turn down different paths around hour 150 and derive some pretty wild results.  today's 12Z fv3 is sickening

click to run if you wish
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on June 01, 2019, 09:05:09 PM
Incredible FV3-test model run from last night.  These things turn down different paths around hour 150 and derive some pretty wild results.  today's 12Z fv3 is sickening
4 cyclonic heat pumps shoving warm air from lower latitudes into the Arctic Circle.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 02, 2019, 10:16:37 AM
Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice

Semmler, T., Jung, T. & Serrar, S. Clim Dyn (2016) 46: 1015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2629-7

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2629-7

https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007%2Fs00382-015-2629-7.pdf

In order to understand the influence of a thinner Arctic sea ice on the wintertime atmosphere, idealized ensemble experiments with increased sea ice surface temperature have been carried out with the Integrated Forecast System of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts.

The focus is on the fast atmospheric response to a sudden “thinning” of Arctic sea ice to disentangle the role of various different processes. We found that boundary layer turbulence is the most important process that distributes anomalous heat vertically. Anomalous longwave radiation plays an important role within the first few days before temperatures in the lower troposphere had time to adjust. The dynamic response tends to balance that due to boundary layer turbulence while cloud processes and convection play only a minor role. Overall the response of the atmospheric large-scale circulation is relatively small with up to 2 hPa in the mean sea level pressure during the first 15 days; the quasi-equilibrium response reached in the second and third month of the integration is about twice as large. During the first few days the response tends to be baroclinic in the whole Arctic. Already after a few days an anti-cyclonic equivalent-barotropic response develops over north-western Siberia and north-eastern Europe. The structure resembles very much that of the atmospheric equilibrium response indicating that fast tropospheric processes such as fewer quasi-barotropic cyclones entering this continental area are key opposed to slower processes such as those involving, for example, stratosphere-troposphere interaction.


Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 03, 2019, 12:12:47 AM
Jennifer Francis discussing jet stream in 2017

timestamp 2255 (37:35)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtmuBoolHQg&t=2255
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on June 03, 2019, 12:32:29 AM
Incredible FV3-test model run from last night.  These things turn down different paths around hour 150 and derive some pretty wild results.  today's 12Z fv3 is sickening


That high just sits there for the whole run. Is there somewhere I can find an explanation for that?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 03, 2019, 12:59:15 AM

Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather
https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2234

Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595

Stratospheric response to Arctic sea ice retreat and associated planetary wave propagation changes
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19375

Amplified Arctic warming and mid‐latitude weather: new perspectives on emerging connections
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/wcc.474

Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid‐latitudes
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2012GL051000

Weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by Arctic sea-ice loss
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms5646?cmpid=newscred

Go to Google Scholar and key in Jennifer Francis, Judah Cohen, Jason Furtado, Baek-Min Kim, Kai Kornhuber, Dim Coumou, Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute, etc etc.

Best briefing available is to read the papers if there isn't an academic lecture available on YouTube

for example:

Stratosphere-troposphere coupling across timescales - Jason Furtado
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gm1Pi3sXPQM&t=1531s

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 03, 2019, 01:15:42 AM
Long story short?  The cold is pulled away from the Arctic ocean and over the land.  Mirrored by atmospheric circulation.  This much is obvious.  Why that's the case .. ??  The literature points to the thinning sea ice.

Nobody expected the blocks from E-W to show up like they have and cause this much trouble, this early.  In fact, nobody has come out and said much about what's happening now.  But I am not a scientist.  I'll say it:  Earth's northern polar cell is failing.  This looks like the abrupt scenario.

You be the judge.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on June 03, 2019, 01:35:04 AM
Long story short?  The cold is pulled away from the Arctic ocean and over the land.  Mirrored by atmospheric circulation.  This much is obvious.  Why that's the case .. ??  The literature points to the thinning sea ice.

Nobody expected the blocks from E-W to show up like they have and cause this much trouble, this early.  In fact, nobody has come out and said much about what's happening now.  But I am not a scientist.  I'll say it:  Earth's northern polar cell is failing.  This looks like the abrupt scenario.

You be the judge.
I think you are correct but I don't think it's exactly accurate to say the polar cell is failing -- the *single* polar cell system is now changing into a state where we have two smaller continental polar cells centered over North America and Eurasia, with increasing dominance of the NAmerican cell (IMO).

So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 03, 2019, 01:45:36 AM
Hahaha.  Ok
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on June 03, 2019, 06:28:11 AM
Someone just posted this on Twitter. Frost and freeze warning around the Great Lakes tonight. I'm not sure if this is the right place for it.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Dharma Rupa on June 03, 2019, 07:56:05 PM
So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).

WACCy weather.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 03, 2019, 09:47:02 PM
In the model runs (look at fv3 hour 200-262 from today 06z!)  The high pressure incursions are traveling CCW about Hudson Bay, incursions from the Atlantic are blowing right through the polar cell and exciting on the other side of the planet

Similar story on the Scandinavian block

The ridiculously resilient ridge and Scandinavian block are meeting at the North Pole

So far it has been exaggerated by the models and reality has seen the polar front remaining intact even when the ridge pushed above 80N and fed out anticyclones over the North Pole.  Instead of such sharp features derived by the model you see reality much more diffuse and maybe not as severe--but still

We do not have words for what is happening, so I will defer to one of the greats

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s86K-p089R8
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 04, 2019, 05:29:30 AM
James G Anderson

watch this interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y12P76EYQJ8
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 04, 2019, 07:13:18 AM
For the past 1-2 days, none of the models can decide where the next block comes from.  I hope this means the polar front stays intact

however a few runs have given a very high (360 meter plus) 500mb anomaly within 240 hours, something i've not seen since February-March

must be lining up with some wave action?  none can decide where it shows up

these blocks ripping through the jet stream into the arctic / ridges pinching off highs in the arctic / jet stream amplitude causing accelerated arctic warming... whatever has been happening more and more over the past 18 months

STILL is showing no sign of changing pattern.  Already looks like a lot of summer outlooks are going to be invalidated.  it just keeps getting worse and worse and worse
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on June 04, 2019, 07:32:08 AM
These forecasts are more than ten days out - might mention that in the text.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 04, 2019, 07:42:21 AM
I think you are correct but I don't think it's exactly accurate to say the polar cell is failing -- the *single* polar cell system is now changing into a state where we have two smaller continental polar cells centered over North America and Eurasia, with increasing dominance of the NAmerican cell (IMO).

So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).

I think I understand what you're saying..  is it like the pattern of "polar cell" has become more chaotic? 

What traces would this leave on a chart?  I'm seeing a lot of 500mb & even some 250mb easterly winds.  When the jet stream breaks in the Arctic and leaves an in intense anti-cyclone, it often moves in retrograde.  I bet that would look good on a map... but which one?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 04, 2019, 08:03:23 AM
These forecasts are more than ten days out - might mention that in the text.

i am not a scientist <-- it says it right here.  of course they are.  the topic of the thread ends with "long range weather forecasting".  You know, just like summer outlooks, CFS, CanSIPS, RCPs, and millions of conversations about next year, none of which are splashed with warnings about uncertainty in the 10 day forecast

I'm not responsible if you show up with an umbrella when it's sunny out.  But that granular focus to which 5, 8, 10 day uncertainty applies is not relevant to the topic.  I'd rather see a model fail and stipple out on something it can't grapple with so I can think about that and observe how whatever patterns it was projecting actually play out in real life

this isn't an observational science to me.  this is runaway climate change.  whatever climate & weather communications thus far have resulted in the US being record breaking short corn going into a planting season with no prospect of better conditions coming

Quote
In 1930 and early 1931, the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles were known as the most prosperous regions in the nation. For plains farmers, the decade opened with prosperity and growth. But in the summer of 1931, those farmers would face the most difficult eight years of their lives.... The rain simply stopped.

https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h1583.html

Maybe you don't realize it yet.  I'm safe saying the US corn yield will be down 20-30% in 2019

and that's just the tip of the iceberg

All I'm doing is seeing the truth and telling it like it is.  I'm clearly not playing scientist.  I'm trying to figure things out, do I buy my family food or air filters?  do I move?  Because I want to do that before the rush.

While we still have time I'm going to use my intelligence to figure out exactly how this thing is swinging, with or without this forum.  Please help examine the models & present conditions & reanalysis so the developing catastrophic situation can be understood

that's the last I'll say about it.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on June 04, 2019, 08:04:51 AM
These forecasts are more than ten days out - might mention that in the text.

i am not a scientist <-- it says it right here.  of course they are.  the topic of the thread ends with "long range weather forecasting".

Sorry - I was being stupid ...
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 04, 2019, 08:18:00 AM
I'm scared.  We're seeing an inability to adapt to minor stuff.  This thing has been coming on & growing for over 18 months.  We saw it in November 2016, and in November 2018 it accelerated even more.  Nobody's talking about it, why?  Are we afraid of being laughed at or ran out of town? 

You're not stupid.  You're just supporting the orderly process of discussion and discovery that worked great when we weren't in a catstrophe.

It's not scientists responsibility to fight for our lives, it's people like me who can see it... who don't have a responsibility to science, but have a responsibility to our family & communities... it's we who need to stand up and start understanding and talking about this.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Rodius on June 04, 2019, 09:05:27 AM

It's not scientists responsibility to fight for our lives, it's people like me who can see it... who don't have a responsibility to science, but have a responsibility to our family & communities... it's we who need to stand up and start understanding and talking about this.

This is a very good point.
The general public are the ones responsible for forcing the adaptions we need to save ourselves. And we all can do our small part. For me, I no longer care if people think I am paranoid of negative, I simply ask people questions and go from there while providing the supporting information when required.

I really dont know what else can be done given the reluctance for change.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 05, 2019, 08:48:12 AM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019060418&fh=0

Actually a calmer looking projection in that run.  Models flip flop between continued high polar cap height anomaly and some calming, well under 240 hrs before the next block either bobs into the Arctic, or the polar front stays intact and the pattern shifts

I think I'm gonna go get some corn
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on June 06, 2019, 01:16:35 AM
According to recent study as described by NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis - June 4 edition:
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)
 
    "While Arctic sea ice extent is declining sharply, it is also highly variable from one year to the next. Scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the University of Stockholm have proposed that this strong variability is closely related to fluctuations in the air temperature above the Arctic Ocean driven by atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic from lower latitudes.
 
      In contrast to previous assumptions, they argue that other factors, such as the ice-albedo feedback, cloud and water vapor feedbacks, and oceanic heat transported into the Arctic together explain only 25 percent of the year-to-year sea ice extent variations. Most of the sea ice variations are thus directly caused by mid-atmospheric temperature conditions..."
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 07, 2019, 09:28:54 AM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019060618&fh=168

983mb June 12th, forecast hour 132

We're making GFS great again
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: be cause on June 07, 2019, 09:52:32 AM
'983mb' .. does my LAC become a GAC ? or is our new GFS as wild on deepening lows as the old was at overheating the Arctic ? .
  I do wish TTb's maps ( and Windys ) came with fewer isobars .. Highs look like lows and lows look like hurricanes to those who grew up with 4 isobar spacings .. b.c.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Sterks on June 07, 2019, 03:24:52 PM
'983mb' .. does my LAC become a GAC ? or is our new GFS as wild on deepening lows as the old was at overheating the Arctic ? .
  I do wish TTb's maps ( and Windys ) came with fewer isobars .. Highs look like lows and lows look like hurricanes to those who grew up with 4 isobar spacings .. b.c.
No but it’s going to give a stir to the blocks floating around.
All in all the forecast, I think, has improved, but there’s a general circulation around Greenland that does not go away. Who knows how persistent. (Hey its a non-rhetorical question: who knows?)
And in any case expect big roast in Laptev Sea and Siberian coast in general, as well as CAA surface melting.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 07, 2019, 09:47:11 PM
Dr Judah Cohen has updated the AER blog June 7:

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

Continued northern blocking predicted by GFS ensemble rolling forward

*edit how do I make a chart like this?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on June 09, 2019, 12:20:49 AM
    I just read about yet another feedback mechanism I was not previously aware of:
      ' Freshly melted ice ... creates a layer of cold water that protects sea ice above from more melting.   "It isolates the ice from the hot devil water sitting at the bottom waiting to come up" Wagner explains.  Less sea ice means there will be less of that protective cold layer, leading to even more melting. '
https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/world/arctic-beneath-ice-intl/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/08/world/arctic-beneath-ice-intl/index.html)

     Which got me thinking it would be useful to have an inventory of all the significant reinforcing ("positive") and suppressive ("negative") feedbacks that affect Arctic sea ice.

    I did not find any forum title where this would fit, but this section seems to be the most closely related topic.  It could require its own thread, similar to the Glossary.

Here is the kind of list I have in mind:

Reinforcing feedbacks:
1. Melted ice creates cold layer that insulates remaining ice from warmer subsurface water.  Less ice to melt reduces this insulating layer.  Which leads to even less insulating cold layer water.

2. Less ice leaves darker ocean water with lower albedo, thus energy from solar radiation is absorbed into water instead of reflected.  Warmer water leads to less ice.

3.  Overall, fractured ice is more mobile and thus more susceptible to being exported via Fram Strait or Nares Strait.  There is chance of an ice bridge to block export via Nares Strait with fractured, reduced ice cover.  Increased export results in less multi-year thick ice, and more mobile young ice the next year.

4.  Fractured or thin sea ice floes have more surface area per unit volume and therefore melt at lower temperatures than thicker ice, or larger ice floes.  This leads to less surviving ice the summer to become thicker multi-year ice.

5.  Fractured vs. contiguous ice allows more wave action that interferes with freezing of ice and allows wave action to break ice into smaller pieces less resistant to melt.  Resulting in more fracturing of the remaining ice and even more wave action.

6.  Albedo reduction by replacing ice with dark water leads to warmer water and more energy in the Arctic Ocean system.  That in turn increases frequency, intensity, or both, of cyclones causing wave action that break up ice. Which reduces albedo even further.

7.  Weakening of the Polar Cell results in more frequent occurrence of Arctic Dipole, that increases export of ice out of the Arctic, which lowers Arctic sea ice, which leads to warm Arctic Ocean water, which leads to further weakening of the Polar Cell.  (whew, that's a long chain)

8.  Loss of ice cover weakens the polar cell which in turn allows more incursion of of warm moist air masses from the south into the Arctic, which leads to more weakening of the polar cell.

9.  Weakening of the polar cell allows more cyclonic systems to move into the Arctic.  Those cyclones disrupt the Arctic sea ice, and in doing so further weaken the polar cell.

10.  Younger, thinner ice has higher salt content and thus lower melt temperature.  Therefore it has less chance of surviving the summer melt to become more resistant, thicker multi-year ice.

11.  Reduced snow cover allows earlier spring warm up of Arctic land mass, which results in warmer air flowing onto the Arctic Ocean. This warms the system as a whole, leading to reduced snow cover and earlier snow loss the following year. 

12.  More open ocean leads to higher humidity and more extensive or thicker cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean in the fall and winter.  More extensive or thicker cloud cover in fall and winter reduces heat loss thus reduces winter refreezing.

13.  Earlier spring warm up of Arctic land mass, results in increased permafrost and land ice thaw, resulting in earlier and more melt water flowing from land into the Arctic Ocean. The meltwater warms the Arctic Ocean and reduces Arctic sea ice.  Which leads to more open water with lower albedo to absorb solar radiation in the summer, increasing summer heat content of the system  More open water allows this heat to escape to moderate winter air temperatures and earlier spring warm up.

14.  Reduction of Arctic sea ice allows increased flow of warmer Pacific or Atlantic water into the Arctic, leading to further decline of Arctic sea ice, leading to more Pacification and Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean.

***
Compensatory or Suppressive feedbacks:
1.  Ice cover insulates the Arctic Ocean in winter.  With less sea ice cover there is faster energy loss and winter cooling, and thus faster winter ice increase after a lower September minimum extent.

2.  Thin ice grows much faster than thick ice.  Thus faster winter ice increase compensates for thinner ice after a strong melt season. 

3.  More open ocean leads to higher humidity and more extensive or thicker cloud cover over the Arctic Ocean in the summer.  More extensive or thicker cloud cover in summer reflects more solar radiation and thus reduces summer ice melt.

*****************************

     My wording is no doubt less than perfect for many of these.  Some may be just plain wrong.  Some I just made up!  Maybe I should just find a good book or review article with such a list.  Any suggestions?

   If you think a proposed feedback is incorrect or wrongly stated, it would helpful to have that noted.  But I'm not looking to start multiple debates about which feedbacks are most important. 

      I don't get a commission for each new proposed feedback, so there's no need to get heated.  The planet is hot enough as it is.  These are just suggested entries.  There must be suppressive feedbacks missing from the list.

   I just thought a list would be interesting because I keep finding out about feedbacks I had not previously been aware of. 




Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: wili on June 09, 2019, 02:42:35 AM
I have been more or less obsessed with feedbacks since I first understood their significance. These are a good start for this region. For now, I'll just also point out that more open water in the Arctic allows for bigger waves to form, which in turn can more easily churn up whatever ice (or slush) is left.

The larger amplitude waves may also lead to churning of that lower strata of warmer, saltier water up toward the surface. Both of these processes of course melt more ice, creating more open water, allowing for bigger and bigger waves...

We are probably mostly now past this stage, but I suspect that a few years ago, a 'flash melt' event we had was exacerbated by the fact that some old ice as it broke up formed icebergs, some of which went down to considerable depths. When high winds hit the top of these, their much deeper and bigger sub-sea bodies would sway back and forth, churning that deeper, warmer strata up toward the surface.

This is just my theory, and we now will see very little of this, except from icebergs calved from glaciers, since nearly all of the thick old ice is now gone.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Bruce Steele on June 09, 2019, 05:53:31 AM
This list by ASLR on the Blue Ice thread #7 May 15 , 2016 includes fresh water flushing and the slowdown in the MOC. This results in less carbon sequestration into bottom or deep water.

- Resource extraction (oil, gas, coal, iron etc) will increase.
- Both wave action & Ekman Pump action will increase the bottom water temperatures in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, which will increase methane emissions from hydrate decomposition.
- Permafrost decomposition will accelerate; which will increase both CO2 and CH4 emissions.
- Boreal wildfires will increase (like in Fort McMurray only further north and worse).
- The atmospheric thermal gradient will decrease, which will decrease the constraints on the Jetstream, which will increase blocking events which will increase extreme weather events.
- Warming over Greenland will accelerate, which will increase ice mass loss & associated SLR.
- The specific humidity in the Arctic will increase, and as water vapor is a GHG, this will increase Arctic Amplification; which will decrease snow cover that will act as a positive feedback for more warming due to decreasing albedo.
- Shrub growth in the tundra will increase, which will also act as a positive feedback for more warming by decreasing albedo in the tundra.
- Pests will more further north, which will attack boreal forests and tundra shrub growth.
- Ground burrowing animals (like ground squirrels) will more north, which will accelerate permafrost degradation.
- Farmland will more northward, which will decrease albedo and will accelerate permafrost degradation.
- Plankton growth will accelerate in the Arctic; which will be smaller in size than the current average, which will sequester less carbon.
- The thermohaline  circulation (great oceanic conveyor) will both slow and will also convey more warm into the Barents/Kara Sea areas.

There are many other positive feedbacks (like Hansen et al (2016)'s ice-climate feedback), but I need to do my shopping.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 10, 2019, 02:28:33 AM
don't forget Whales & Dolphins that might show up & drive up shoaling of deep ocean water.  I wanted to include Biology and Chemistry in the topic.  I'd rewrite for a new topic if anyone has a better heading.  I'm reminded of a book

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting

https://www.gjopen.com/ - put yourself to the test
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on June 10, 2019, 10:43:10 PM
     Stepping away from the feedback discussion (I'm still hoping for more suggestions or critques), here is an abstract I bumped into today that is entirely in sync with the thread topic.

Multiweek Prediction Skill Assessment of Arctic Sea Ice Variability in the CFSv2
Liu, Yanyun; Wang, Wanqiu; Kumar, Arun. Weather and Forecasting; Boston Vol. 33, Iss. 5,  (Oct 2018): 1453-1476. DOI:10.1175/WAF-D-18-0046.1
Publisher logo. Links to publisher website, opened in a new window.

Abstract
     "Skillful Arctic Sea ice prediction is becoming increasingly important because of its societal, industrial, and economic impacts over the polar regions and potential influence on lower-latitude weather and climate variability. In this work, we evaluate the multiweek forecast skill of Arctic sea ice using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first effort to diagnose and assess the skill of multiweek Arctic sea ice prediction from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Analysis of a suite of retrospective 45-day forecasts spanning 1999-2015 shows that CFSv2 captures general features of sea ice concentration (SIC) variability.

    Total SIC variability is dominated by interannual variability, which accounts for more than 60% of the total variance. Submonthly variability accounts for 29% of the total variance in December, 20% in March and June, and 12.5% in September. We assess the ability of CFSv2 to predict the pan-Arctic SIC, as well as regional SIC in nine Arctic regions. Results show that the SIC prediction skill is highly region dependent (e.g., higher prediction skill for Kara/Barents Seas and lower for the Canadian Archipelago). Overall, the maximum anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) of SIC for both melt and freeze-up seasons is near the marginal zones, and their spatial distribution shows a relationship with the distribution of the variance. If the ACC of 0.5 is taken as the critical value for skillful prediction, the predictability of weekly SIC near the marginal zones is about 5-6 weeks. Prediction skill for Arctic sea ice extent is above 0.6 for the entire six target weeks and has a large contribution from interannual variability."
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 21, 2019, 09:13:51 PM
Dr Judah Cohen has published an update to the AER blog.  Forecast ensemble sees a continued cooling in upper level polar cell with continued troposphere warmth into the first weeks of July.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

I was really hoping this pattern would break as soon as the snow melted of land
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: FishOutofWater on June 23, 2019, 04:58:00 AM
Ocean heat is impinging on the Arctic from both the Atlantic and Pacific sides. That's what's intensifying the warm Arctic cold continents pattern. Blocking highs tend to form over the oceans at preferred locations near 0 and 180 degrees. This leads to increased heat transfer from the Atlantic and Pacific ocean heat sources to the arctic atmosphere. This situation weakens the polar vortex and  causes WACCy weather. I wouldn't call it the failure of the polar cell, but the polar circulation is increasingly being disrupted by heat advected from the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on June 24, 2019, 02:01:23 AM
Fish - Is there precedent for Atlantic ocean heat intrusion meeting up with Pacific side?  Any chance of that happening this year?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on June 24, 2019, 03:52:35 AM
I think you are correct but I don't think it's exactly accurate to say the polar cell is failing -- the *single* polar cell system is now changing into a state where we have two smaller continental polar cells centered over North America and Eurasia, with increasing dominance of the NAmerican cell (IMO).

So, yes, the single-polar-cell system is failing, but we still have polar cells, they are just centered in abnormal locations and are now advecting heat into the High Arctic instead of dissipating heat entering the High Arctic (at least, advection is now occurring more often than dissipation).

Pretty much how I see it.  Except there's sort of a third polar cell going on, often over Sea of Okhotsk.

I love this video of a winter PV split

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOlmDvYn3Fc
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on June 24, 2019, 09:56:39 PM
Quote
I love this video of a winter PV split
So do I. How do you make one?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Glen Koehler on June 28, 2019, 08:08:32 PM
RE post #2751 about albedo in the 2019 Melt Season thread

Radiative Heating of an Ice‐free Arctic Ocean
Kristina Pistone Ian Eisenman V. Ramanathan
First published: 20 June 2019
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082914

"During recent decades, there has been dramatic Arctic sea ice retreat. This has reduced the top‐of‐atmosphere albedo, adding more solar energy to the climate system. There is substantial uncertainty regarding how much ice retreat and associated solar heating will occur in the future. This is relevant to future climate projections, including the timescale for reaching global warming stabilization targets. Here we use satellite observations to estimate the amount of solar energy that would be added in the worst‐case scenario of a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice throughout the sunlit part of the year. Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global warming by an estimated 25 years."

Trillion tons CO2, i.e. about 25 years of current annual global emissions.  That's just a theoretical benchmark number of course, we are a long way from Arctic being ice free all summer.  But every portion thereof adds another slice of warming energy. 

Same authors did an earlier, more practical study:
Observational determination of albedo decrease caused by vanishing Arctic sea ice
Kristina Pistone, Ian Eisenman1, and V. Ramanathan
322–3326 | PNAS | March 4, 2014 | vol. 111 | no. 9
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1318201111


"The decline of Arctic sea ice has been documented in over 30 y of
satellite passive microwave observations. The resulting darkening
of the Arctic and its amplification of global warming was hypothesized
almost 50 y ago but has yet to be verified with direct
observations. This study uses satellite radiation budget measurements
along with satellite microwave sea ice data to document
the Arctic-wide decrease in planetary albedo and its amplifying
effect on the warming. The analysis reveals a striking relationship
between planetary albedo and sea ice cover, quantities inferred
from two independent satellite instruments. We find that the Arctic
planetary albedo has decreased from 0.52 to 0.48 between 1979
and 2011, corresponding to an additional 6.4 ± 0.9 W/m2 of solar
energy input into the Arctic Ocean region since 1979. Averaged
over the globe, this albedo decrease corresponds to a forcing that
is 25% as large as that due to the change in CO2 during this period,
considerably larger than expectations from models and other less
direct recent estimates. Changes in cloudiness appear to play
a negligible role in observed Arctic darkening, thus reducing
the possibility of Arctic cloud albedo feedbacks mitigating future
Arctic warming."

Note that study period ended in 2011.  After 2019 easy to think that 25% could be up to 30%.

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on July 04, 2019, 03:03:21 AM
Scary storm fires up off thunderstorm activity in the GFS, hour 70-180
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: wdmn on July 04, 2019, 03:23:54 AM
What am I looking at here? Green is rain? Am I looking at the part over the lower Great Lakes St. Lawrence?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on July 04, 2019, 06:28:13 AM
That's the Eastern US and East Atlantic. Click to run gif.  Midlats cyclone headed north up the Eastern seaboard in hour 70+


Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 04, 2019, 07:37:17 AM
Sark, there is no GIF. :P
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on July 04, 2019, 08:42:20 AM
Scary storm fires up off thunderstorm activity in the GFS, hour 70-180
I'm just hoping for a Thunderstorm in DC just in time for the parade.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on July 04, 2019, 07:16:38 PM
Storm granted

https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1146790127169150976?s=19
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: vox_mundi on July 04, 2019, 07:31:54 PM
^ +1 ... LMAO
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on July 04, 2019, 08:42:03 PM
^ +1 ... LMAO

Ditto.  My Schadenfreude meter just pegged itself.  ;D  XD XD XD
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: vox_mundi on July 08, 2019, 11:05:34 PM
Indian Ocean Causes Drought and Heatwaves in South America
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-indian-ocean-drought-heatwaves-south.html

New research has found the record-breaking South American drought of 2013/14 with its succession of heatwaves and long lasting marine heatwave had its origins in a climate event half a world away—over the Indian Ocean.

(https://media.springernature.com/w685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41561-019-0393-8/MediaObjects/41561_2019_393_Fig5_HTML.png)

It all started with strong atmospheric convection over the Indian Ocean that generated a powerful planetary wave that travelled across the South Pacific to the South Atlantic where it displaced the normal atmospheric circulation over South America.

"The atmospheric wave produced a large area of high pressure, known as a blocking high, that stalled off the east coast of Brazil," said lead author Dr. Regina Rodrigues.

"The impacts of the drought that followed were immense and prolonged, leading to a tripling of dengue fever cases, water shortages in São Paulo, and reduced coffee production that led to global shortages and worldwide price increases."

That impact wasn't just felt on land as the high-pressure system stalled over the ocean.

"The result of this blocking high was an unprecedented marine heatwave that amplified the unusual atmospheric conditions and likely had an impact on local fisheries in the region."

(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41561-019-0393-8/MediaObjects/41561_2019_393_Fig3_HTML.png)

... The 2013/14 South American drought and marine heatwave is the latest climate case study to show how distant events in one region can have major climate impacts on the other side of the world.

"Researchers found that Australia's 2011 Ningaloo Nino in the Indian Ocean, which completely decimated coastal ecosystems and impacted fisheries, was caused by a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific," said Australian co-author Dr. Alex Sen Gupta.

"Here we have yet another example of how interconnected our world is.

Regina R. Rodrigues, et.al., Common cause for severe droughts in South America and marine heatwaves in the South Atlantic (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0393-8), Nature Geoscience (2019).

------------------------------------

Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming Found Related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-summer-eurasian-nonuniform-atlantic-multidecadal.html

(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/csz/news/800/2019/summereurasi.jpg)

"Previous studies indicate the Eurasian nonuniform warming since the mid-1990s may be related with the phase shift of the AMO, and we validate this point by using ensemble experiments with three AGCMs [atmospheric general circulation models]," the lead author says. "The overall consistency among the three AGCMs illustrates the robustness of the AMO's influence, although the models are not the most recent updated versions," she adds.

The authors diagnose the underlying mechanism of the AMO's influence on the Eurasian nonuniform warming from the perspective that the boundary forcing modulates the intrinsic atmospheric variability. The results highlight the role of the Silk Road Pattern.

"The AMO-related tropical diabatic heating anomaly excites the Silk Road wave-train over Eurasia with positive geopotential height and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia, but negative geopotential height and cyclonic circulation over Central Asia. Such opposite circulations lead to opposite changes in temperature advection, precipitation, cloud cover and solar radiation. When these effects overlap the signals of global warming, it causes amplified warming," the authors explain.

Xueqian Sun et al, Simulated Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Summer Eurasian Nonuniform Warming since the Mid-1990s (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-019-8169-z), Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2019)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 21, 2019, 05:07:17 AM
It's my fault.  I should have made this thread more useful.  Perhaps a new thread in Consequences?  I dunno

Role of the stratosphere (sudden warmings) on intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions
•Published on Nov 28, 2017
https://youtu.be/-3jCtFj8OXA?t=3

Introduction to stratospheric dynamics and stratosphere-troposphere coupling
•Published on Nov 28, 2017
https://youtu.be/6HYRz8mwqkE?t=93

Rough Weather Ahead with Dr. Jennifer Francis
•Published on Aug 22, 2019
https://youtu.be/QmGK6TpiwIA?t=284s

My polar vortex PhD thesis: explained
•Published on Feb 21, 2019
https://youtu.be/BIYEvO4AA6o?t=3

How I chose my research field (PhD)
•Published on Jan 30, 2019
https://youtu.be/BIYEvO4AA6o?t=1


https://diegofdezsevilla.wordpress.com/





Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 21, 2019, 10:48:13 AM
cross posting for future reference.
When was the last time the jet stream regularly reached the North Pole from both sides of the planet simultaneously besides the 16 times it happened this year?  (Jan 2014?)

What's the difference from prior years?  Now it's symmetrical and intense and unlike any weather ever recorded.

Whiplash hot/cold with 7" of rain in a pop up thundercloud, wiping out whole counties.  There are squall lines with outburst that knock down enough crops to require adding it to the spreadsheet.  108.7f in Paris? 

It's a funny failure of human dignity to observe it, until it arrests their personal experience.  The hero of the story is a fool.  It's the technique of a joke. 

Why would anyone think a completely split, dual polar cell that breaks up into pieces that fling out of the Arctic is a system we can count on to die slowly?

Apparently packets of vorticity in the Arctic will fling out and become tremendous storms as we watch tropical height atmosphere establish & grow over the North Pole first.

Well, whatever happens, do you agree that you and I both have the opportunity to observe it?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp

here's our bad guy: https://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/09/10/0000Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/anim=off/orthographic=-90.45,90.52,547

The polar cell is failing.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133375;image)
You'll notice that actual air temperatures are often colder over land than over the Arctic.  Now we got a major dynamic polar shit storm going on.  Sometimes that makes me laugh, but not often. 

Potential temperature is a pressure level which speaks more to the dynamics of the atmosphere than they do to "global warming".  Because instead of a pinwheel centered mostly over the Arctic Ocean, it's a fidget spinner with dual Arctic systems.

are they gonna do the Fujiwhara and maintain position over the pole?  no way.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133376;image)
May Day, 2019

We saw a sample of this back in November and again in January.  That was a result of Sudden Stratospheric Warming #1 of winter 2018/2019.  Then we experienced a 2nd at the final warming of the winter polar vortex.  It died very badly in 2019 in a SSW, 2nd of the year.

Yearly average is 0.6 sudden stratospheric warmings.

This is Eemian weather.  2019 is too much already.

So far this year has been alarmingly off the charts abnormal in every aspect.  that's why I'm not explaining this much, because I'm pretty convinced it doesn't make a difference

But FWIW it's been lining up as a quadrupole.  It's ok to say quadrupole.  It's in Mitchell 2013.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133377;image)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133378;image)
Essentially it wants to be an equable climate but it stayed too cold at the pole to allow it.  Like the Southern Hemisphere.  Well, we hit the point where that's no longer working.

now we're seeing a mix of interglacial / equable climate regimes blending together.

It is changing faster than it is warming.  It's the dynamics that are in trouble.  Almost every year will be palpably worse.  That is abrupt climate change featuring a runaway of the climate structure.

Jet streams will start dissolving as big packets of tropical height atmosphere flood to the pole.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133379;image)
Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2629-7
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=133383;image)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 21, 2019, 03:07:48 PM
A relevant thread had already been created!  :)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 21, 2019, 03:08:49 PM
cross posting for future reference.


Thank you very much for this.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 21, 2019, 03:11:03 PM
It's my fault.  I should have made this thread more useful.  Perhaps a new thread in Consequences?  I dunno


No. This is the perfect place. Keep up the good work. Be sure to comment on current atmospherics on the upcoming freeze season thread but link to here for the more in depth discussion.

Great work!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 21, 2019, 04:55:22 PM
I agree. It would be nice to have a thread with a discussion of this topic.
Question: Does anyone know about a paper about a possible winter atmospheric setup and its consequences in the future, where there are two poles of cold (Siberia and Greenland-Canada) with a warm(er) Arctic in between?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 21, 2019, 05:36:25 PM
Cross-posting the image with expanded Hadley Cell and mixed Ferrel/Polar Cell here. The thought was, summers might see a temporary exclusion of Polar Cell during summers with a Blue Arctic, but what we would see during winters, would be unclear. Really the thing should be remade with maps somewhat like Sark has done by observational data selecting weather situations to expect.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: nanning on September 21, 2019, 05:43:24 PM
<snip>
How I chose my research field (PhD)
•Published on Jan 30, 2019
https://youtu.be/BIYEvO4AA6o?t=1

Great to listen to your youtube video ("How I chose my research field (PhD)") sark :) . Very nice that you have found an important goal, and be able to pursue that amibition and curiosity.
I wish you the freedom to do good research.

Something's puzzling me: at 2m52 what do you mean by "circuits"?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: wdmn on September 21, 2019, 06:32:18 PM
Following up on Nanning's comments, the other video (about your thesis) does not have the correct link.

Also, guys, sark IS a scientist.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 21, 2019, 07:35:30 PM
That was not my intention.  I am not that PhD guy.  It is the field of research that needs to be highlighted.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 02:35:35 AM
No I'm not a Dr. but probably need one

posting these here for posterity

I'm at a 3 out of 5 on alarm right now.  But my mood swings with the AO index.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 03:02:46 AM
Quote
Something's puzzling me: at 2m52 what do you mean by "circuits"?

I think he is saying electrical circuits, among the things he studied, along the way with optics and then finally fluids caught his attention

Yes, this guy is amazing.  Also, the work he did is a truer description of how the atmosphere is coupled.  It only makes sense, but to actually put it into a chart is hard.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 03:24:35 AM
The hunch I have fostered is that the dynamics were not properly assessed... because of evidence like these

Based on how absolutely mad the weather has been.

I don't recall ever hearing about two polar cells "oh it looks like we have two polar cells."  Never.

Oh, by the way.  The pattern is changing to  an inverted quadrupole.  I didn't invent quadrupole (It's in Mitchell, 2013).  I'm pretty sure I did invent Octopole to describe the atmosphere

I work 55 hours a week machining parts, haha.

Enhanced Stratosphere/Troposphere Coupling During Extreme Warm Stratospheric Events with Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillation

Atmosphere 2018, 9(12), 467; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9120467

Enhanced Stratosphere/Troposphere Coupling During Extreme Warm Stratospheric Events with Strong Polar-Night Jet Oscillation
by Dieter H.W. Peters, Andrea Schneidereit, Alexey Y. Karpechko
1
Leibniz-Institute for Atmospheric Physics, University of Rostock, Ostseebad Kühlungsborn, D-18225 Mecklenburg, Germany
2
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Arctic Research, PL 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland

Extreme warm stratospheric events during polar winters from ERA-Interim reanalysis and CMIP5-ESM-LR runs were separated by duration and strength of the polar-night jet oscillation (PJO) using a high statistical confidence level of three standard deviations (strong-PJO events). With a composite analysis, we demonstrate that strong-PJO events show a significantly stronger downward propagating signal in both, northern annular mode (NAM) and zonal mean zonal wind anomaly in the stratosphere in comparison with non-PJO events. The lower stratospheric EP-flux-divergence difference in ERA-Interim was stronger in comparison to long-term CMIP5-ESM-LR runs (by a factor of four). This suggests that stratosphere–troposphere coupling is stronger in ERA-Interim than in CMIP5-ESM-LR. During the 60 days following the central date (CD), the Arctic oscillation signal was more intense during strong-PJO events than during non-PJO events in ERA-Interim data in comparison to CMIP5-ESM-LR runs. During the 15-day phase after CD, strong PJO events had a significant increase in stratospheric ozone, upper tropospheric zonally asymmetric impact, and a regional surface impact in ERA-Interim. Finally, we conclude that the applied high statistical threshold gives a clearer separation of extreme warm stratospheric events into strong-PJO events and non-PJO events including their different downward propagating NAM signal and tropospheric impacts.

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/9/12/467/htm
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 04:02:06 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

A ridge in the jet stream will form and dive right onto the Arctic to reach the North Pole on those dates.  Looking down from the north, traveling clockwise.  Often the loading pattern of high pressure anomalies as they travel together toward the Arctic will be across the international date line, or Prime Meridian.  Heat wave from Azores or Europe traveling straight up into the Arctic and reaching the pole, meanwhile, the same thing is coming across Alaska.  Little meridional handshake at the North Pole, that's all

:)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 06:24:31 AM
Anthony Masiello the absolute God

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1175450831849775104

All defined stratospheric pressure levels are seeing new temperature minimums set over the Tropics, but 30mb for 25°S-25°N stands out. Any other SH strat-disturbed year (e.g. 2002) didn't see a response like this over the Tropics (strat data sets aren't great)!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 06:27:15 AM
I agree. It would be nice to have a thread with a discussion of this topic.
Question: Does anyone know about a paper about a possible winter atmospheric setup and its consequences in the future, where there are two poles of cold (Siberia and Greenland-Canada) with a warm(er) Arctic in between?

El Cid.  Help.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 08:21:37 AM
I produced this image of North / South winds at the level of the jet stream.  This is not anomaly graph, just the plain 5 day meridional wind, 1978 and recent.

the meridional wind component is positive if from the south, and negative if from the north.

not ground breaking stuff, it just helps me understand noticing more dissolving winds of the jet stream on weather maps.  It's also not obvious what's different, so I have something to help sleep tonight.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 22, 2019, 08:39:25 AM
Well, it's spring/autumn switch time from summer to winter, and in stratosphere these show up much clearer than in troposphere. The Antarctic 'bent vortex' and the Masiello note of very cold mid-latitude strat show that something out of the ordinary is going on. I'd wait the two weeks i mentioned in SH vortex thread and see if this settles to something more familiar.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 09:39:43 AM
Oh, well what will we talk about for two weeks?

Is there such a thing as a high pressure "storm"?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 22, 2019, 09:49:46 AM
Oh, well what will we talk about for two weeks?

Is there such a thing as a high pressure "storm"?

That's just me, and I am NOT familiar with stratosphere patterns, this four-fold symmetry might be very unusual and result in unexpected cold bursts very far south and vice versa, high warmth in the north. (and opposite in S(outhern)H(emisphere) of course.

Visited nullschool for the first time since spring just to see how this shows up there. I'm out of touch. Ended up toying with the settings and found a new liking for the Atlantis-projection. Setting it so the equator is dead center in the middle and the edge shows the locations of jets quite nicely. Huge bit of SH midlatitude jet rotating over Australia f.e., I don't know what that means.

Also, I don't get why the jet over the Tropical Convergence Zone isn't on the Equator right now, Maybe this is normal, but I'd have expected it to be very much on the Equator and not mostly still on Northern Hemisphere?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 10:21:21 AM
The ITCZ clouds move north and south throughout the year but normally north of the equator.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/itcz/index.html

http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/users/xie/ITCZ.html
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 22, 2019, 10:46:50 AM
The ITCZ clouds move north and south throughout the year but normally north of the equator.

http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/itcz/index.html

http://iprc.soest.hawaii.edu/users/xie/ITCZ.html

Thanks, Sark. Xie at Hawaii explains at lenght and it gets complicated, but probably right...

That off-center souther vortex though... Are there people present who have followed sci-discussions on stratosphere for decades/years? Please explain how that is the way it is?

(Added after seeing Gerontocrats message on Antarctic SSWs)
This is the third known time of this happening. So not common and I was too reticient on my comment before.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 11:09:22 PM
The way I understand it:

Rossby waves climbing up & over the winter PV is the stratospheric sudden warming process.  The waves have to perturbate the atmosphere in a proper configuration for the SSW to occur.  Wave strength is not as important as timing.

I would expect:

The configuration required for a SSW event is aligning in the entire structure of climate & oceans, leading to increased destabilization of the polar vortices at both poles.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 11:13:05 PM
https://scholar.google.com/

(shields up) https://sci-hub.tw/

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/

https://youtu.be/m82Qk2b0dgU?t=1
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 23, 2019, 04:52:08 AM
Am I crazy?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on September 23, 2019, 04:56:49 AM
Am I crazy?
No. This has quickly become one of the best threads on the forum.  :)

We should see +500MB height anomalies in the Arctic steadily worsen as we head through autumn as the PV repeatedly splits. As snowcover revs across the continents under the guts of the Arctic (-500MB anomalies, which seem end up being quite tenacious when they get going across the continents), this will get much worse through October.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 23, 2019, 07:57:40 AM
Once again sark, please, explain your meaning a little bit better
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 23, 2019, 08:12:23 AM
Once again sark, please, explain your meaning a little bit better

High pressure is dominating at the pole featuring intense meridional transport.  The system is locking into a wave 4.  And, it looks like a swastika.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 23, 2019, 08:21:51 AM
jet stream meridional wind composite anomaly for 5/15-8/15 2019

you can see it by going to climate reanalyzer https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.nh-sat1.ws250-snowc-topo press > then +++++
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 23, 2019, 08:51:17 AM
Ilkley Moor Swastika stone.  UFOs.  Time Travel.  Potential vorticity.

Nuff said
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 23, 2019, 09:50:32 AM
“The 2015-17 unprecedented disruption of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation”

Dr. Paul Newman, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Here we describe an unprecedented disruption of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) QBO during 2015-2017 period. The QBO is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with a period of ~28 months. First discovered in 1960, observations of the QBO extend back to 1953. The QBO propagates downward from the middle stratosphere to the tropopause with a period of about 28 months, with a range of 24-32 months. The QBO is a major source of stratospheric variability, and in addition to influencing the zonal wind behavior, the QBO affects stratospheric temperatures and trace gases, particularly ozone and water vapor. Here we describe the unprecedented disruption of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015-17 using Singapore wind radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015-17, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on, or “cut-off” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa.  Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953-present record demonstrate that this anomalous 2015-17 QBO is unprecedented. More specifically, this talk will focus on the impact of the QBO disruption on trace gas distributions. The disruption led to a reduction of ozone in the June-September period of the Northern and Southern hemisphere extratropics, along with perturbations to water and hydrochloric acid (HCl). In the NH, these total ozone values were either at or near record low levels.

https://science.gsfc.nasa.gov/sed/bio...

https://youtu.be/NHCiXPGqlVY?t=99

Singapore Sonde Station: https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#intro

Notice the drop in ozone in September of 2019.  Related to the SSW in the southern hemisphere, I'm sure.  The QBO process periodicity is 24 months, 30 months, or 36 months and I believe we are reaching 24?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 23, 2019, 11:28:25 AM
Am I crazy?
Probably not. Either way, it's interesting stuff. Please carry on.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 23, 2019, 12:55:56 PM
I like longer timeframes so I took a look at geopotential height anomalies for this summer (jun-aug) vs 1980-2010 and the last few years. There were some very marked positive anomalies over the arctic.
I would be happy if someone could come up with a forecast and reasoning(!) as to what it means for arctic and midlatitude weather the following months
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 24, 2019, 07:10:18 AM
subtracting El Nino years would yield roughly the same.  I believe this summer had the largest increase in atmospheric height over the Arctic of any summer since observations began.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 24, 2019, 08:46:16 AM
subtracting El Nino years would yield roughly the same.  I believe this summer had the largest increase in atmospheric height over the Arctic of any summer since observations began.

Arctic atmosphere is generally thickening because of repeated SSWs and warm incursions from south? The older model of tropopause heights lowering towards arctic isn't too good anymore? Is cloud height over Arctic increasing? Please do the same for dec-march. The warming should be more pronounced during winters, thus even higher anomalies might be present.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 24, 2019, 08:58:51 AM
I want to find if the period of May 1 - Present is the longest span of negative Arctic Oscillation index in recorded history

Many many such records are being annihilated by this... Thing

May 1, 2019.  At the final warming of the winter polar vortex, we had a Sudden Stratospheric Warming come and take it out violently.  The Atmosphere of the Arctic split in 2 from Space to Earth, leaving a huge tropical height air mass balancing itself over the North Pole.

that made 2 SSW last winter.  average is 6 per decade.

Right now we stand, in science, with disagreement over if thin sea ice promotes impacts that can be felt where we live.  That's the bar.

No paper is allowed to say that SSW are increasing severely.  Acceleration is barely rising to attention.  Oh, DO YOU THINK ATMOSPHERIC BLOCKING IS ON THE RISE?? No journal has suggested that Arctic Sea Ice could disappear in the 2020's.  This was the province of sects and of alarmists, catastrophists and doomers

These are called "blocks" but really what they are is tropical air reaching the North Pole.  They were called "blocks" because they held position somewhere and blocked.  I've never heard of dual roving heat domes arising in the Tropics proceeding due north along the Prime Meridian and cutting the polar cell in half on every weather graph.

As a result,   2019 has been an absolute climate disaster worldwide.

The tropics breaking the jet stream to reach the pole has been unrelenting and symmetrical.  It's ran off the charts of the AO Index.  The jet stream has been reaching the north pole from both sides of the Earth simultaneously nonstop in 2019.  embarrassing.

I will never publish in a journal.  I will die from an abrupt and running away climate.  oh well, life is meaningless, and I was happy with that long ago. 

I don't want to do this but I will.

The climate is essentially a mix of equable and interglacial climate patterns right now, has been for months, and potentially will be deep into Autumn.

I would predict storms, lots of huge fucking storms, amidst a back drop of complete atmospheric restructuring.

This is the Fourth Bowl of Wrath.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 24, 2019, 09:15:39 AM
Arctic atmosphere is generally thickening because of repeated SSWs and warm incursions from south? The older model of tropopause heights lowering towards arctic isn't too good anymore? Is cloud height over Arctic increasing? Please do the same for dec-march. The warming should be more pronounced during winters, thus even higher anomalies might be present.

November 2016 off the top of my head.  11/1 through 11/15 GHPA over the Arctic was in the 200's.  But this isn't Winter.

Put it this way:  Last winter we had a wicked Polar Vortex in January.  We just had a Spring & Summer with 20 more.

I'll find what I think are the best analog years.  Years in which such influences might have been present in an older Arctic.  There are some, suggesting solar minimum and thin sea ice are both parts of the problem right now... neither of which is going away in one year's time.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 24, 2019, 10:06:04 AM
  I will die from an abrupt and running away climate.  oh well, life is meaningless, and I was happy with that long ago. 



The climate is essentially a mix of equable and interglacial climate patterns right now, has been for months, and potentially will be deep into Autumn.

I would predict storms, lots of huge fucking storms, amidst a back drop of complete atmospheric restructuring.

This is the Fourth Bowl of Wrath.

I don't know about the apocalypse and the huge m**f**ing storms, BUT:

We know that during the Eemian we had no ice cover over the Arctic and yet that did not lead to an equable climate. So hold your horses for a while yet. Besides, despite the warm intrusions, summers are still dominated by much lower geopotential heights over the Arctic than the tropics:
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 24, 2019, 10:09:35 AM
Just a quick reminder on the Eemian from wikipedia:

"Although global annual mean temperatures were probably several degrees warmer than today, during summer months, temperatures in the Arctic region were about 2-4 °C higher than today.[10] The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape, Norway (which is now tundra) well above the Arctic Circle at 71°10′21″N 25°47′40″E. Hardwood trees such as hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.

At the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames.[11] Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest"

AND:

"Sea level at peak was probably 6 to 9 metres (20 to 30 feet) higher than today,[17][18] with Greenland contributing 0.6 to 3.5 m (2.0 to 11.5 ft),[19] thermal expansion and mountain glaciers contributing up to 1 m (3.3 ft),[20] and an uncertain contribution from Antarctica.[21] Recent research on marine sediment cores offshore of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet suggest that the sheet melted during the Eemian, and that ocean waters rose as fast as 2.5 meters per century.[22] Global mean sea surface temperatures are thought to have been higher than in the Holocene, but not by enough to explain the rise in sea level through thermal expansion alone, and so melting of polar ice caps must also have occurred"
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 24, 2019, 10:17:11 AM
El Cid wrote:
Quote
We know that during the Eemian we had no ice cover over the Arctic and yet that did not lead to an equable climate. So hold your horses for a while yet. Besides, despite the warm intrusions, summers are still dominated by much lower geopotential heights over the Arctic than the tropics:
Yes tropical cloud height has increased a bit in the last twenty something years. This would be why anomalies or absolute amount of changes from 80s-90s, over the Arctic and Antarctic could make for a more clarifying image.
Quote
Global mean sea surface temperatures are thought to have been higher than in the Holocene, but not by enough to explain the rise in sea level through thermal expansion alone, and so melting of polar ice caps must also have occurred"
This would probably have happened in WAIS, since the Eemian layer there are, if remembering correctly, quite messy.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 24, 2019, 10:26:24 AM
Thank you.

Yes, the Eemian.  Will we shoot right past it.

I wasn't aware the Eemian saw complete loss of Arctic Sea Ice?

"The latter is a time interval when the high latitudes were significantly warmer than today. We document that even under such warmer climate conditions, sea ice existed in the central Arctic Ocean during summer, whereas sea ice was significantly reduced along the Barents Sea continental margin influenced by Atlantic Water inflow. Our proxy reconstruction of the last interglacial sea ice cover is supported by climate simulations"

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00552-1
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 24, 2019, 10:54:51 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on September 24, 2019, 12:07:05 PM
I did read some studies that claimed that the Eemian was likely ice free during summer, eg:

"A seasonally sea ice-free Arctic hypothesis, however, is supported by recent studies of the last interglacial in
high Northern Hemisphere showing evidence that some part of the last interglacial was warmer than the
Holocene interglacial"
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1755-1307/6/7/072002/pdf

and even the one you quoted says:

"During the MIS 5 interstadials, a seasonal sea ice cover and ice-edge conditions seem to have been most prominent, with minimum sea ice concentrations towards almost ice-free summers during MIS 5e (Eemian)"
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 25, 2019, 11:24:02 AM
This is the largest JJA atmospheric height anomaly over the Arctic in the records, by far.  Did not even need to look

I'm surprised it wasn't 1997 or 2007 that struck out.  1977 and 2011 have even higher heights in much more confined anomalies  1998 is the one that looks the most similar.  There's many things to see in the record.  The two most important factors seem to be Solar Minimum, & Thin Sea Ice.

54, 58, 60, 77, 93, 98, 07, 09, 11, 15 for JJA.  2019 wins.

Any other span of time since May 1 2019 and still the champion * BUT PROBABLY a different set of contenders!

The analog years are all in the Eemian.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 25, 2019, 11:57:09 AM
actually, I take that back.  the June July August heights in 1977, 2007, and 2011 heights are all very sharp and pronounced, with wide areas above 110 meters.

in 2019 the stability of high height anticyclonic air over the North Pole is apparently nothing compared to those years, in JJA.  the persistence is all new, of this there is, so far, no doubt.

I wish there was better ways to see past weather.  This analog effort appears to be handy.

This would be the best chart to run.  "Atmospheric Polar Cap Height"  Anybody know how to make them?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 25, 2019, 12:53:44 PM
This is one of the rare signs of recovery that have come & gone in 2019 ... something has to break this pattern or we'll have to restart the polar cell ourselves

First long range indication from GFS ensemble of a true positive break in the AO index.  Some such forecasts have come & gone but it has long been expected that the anomaly will subside at some point before winter, and all expectations have been disappointments since the first of May.  Well... here comes the first chance we have,  I think, to see a break in the pattern.

A tighter AO would I believe have good implications for weather worldwide, or at least in the Northern Hemisphere, by around October's end.  Less superblizzards and droughts everywhere, perhaps.  Less hail damage too.

I don't believe the AO can be positive much longer.  If these types of years are 3 out of 10, what would one of these do to the Arctic in 10 years?  say, next solar minimum?  No sea ice + tropical air has a tendency to reach the North Pole because of sunspots or some other cycle 

The Arctic would absolutely flip to tropical.

Greenland would be all that is left to provide us with a jet stream.

In ten years nothing will be ready for that kind of thing.  We would collapse & die off.  Permafrost would double the GHG again.  It would runaway.

It's just us
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 08:51:49 AM
Past 15 days have been lining up to something really pretty global.  October 4th is when it all sort of comes to fruition and we have hot oceans, thin sea ice, solar minimum, SSW

Something to do with AAM.  Anybody know where to see a forecast of atmospheric angular momentum?  (password changed)

Edit: http://atlas.niu.edu/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 10:07:24 AM
Jason Furtado

Heat flux from the Pacific sector forecast to enter the stratosphere in the next two weeks (first two maps - orange/red). Should build an Siberian anticyclone into the lower and mid-stratosphere, weakening the stratospheric #PolarVortex (last plot).

https://twitter.com/wxjay/status/1177235181729697793

Judah Cohen

Is it too soon to talk about the #PolarVortex (PV)? Well GFS is predicting first minor disruption of PV of the season the second week of October with elongation of PV from Siberia to Canada and negative stratospheric #Arctic Oscillation that favors buildup of #cold air in Canada.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1177210678693830658

Judah is still worried what other people think, so that's a good sign I guess.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

The polar cell can't "die" can it?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: HapHazard on September 27, 2019, 08:05:20 PM
Really digging this thread, thanks.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 27, 2019, 08:18:38 PM
Something to do with AAM.  Anybody know where to see a forecast of atmospheric angular momentum?  (password changed)

Edit: http://atlas.niu.edu/
Much of the AAM/GWO mapwall doesn't load for me on that link. Where did the animation come from?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 08:21:57 PM
the niu.edu link was for a graph of atmospheric angular momentum.

the Z200 heights is from CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 27, 2019, 08:31:18 PM
thanks, saw the graph there and now ncep ani
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 28, 2019, 10:25:16 AM
Hurricane heading north
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/09/29/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-47.79,19.23,558
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 28, 2019, 11:19:11 AM
Hour 360 GFS, my favorite tool for indicating distant northern blocking patterns.  This one looks pretty stable over the North Pole
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on September 28, 2019, 11:40:49 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.
I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims
How is sep30 looking?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 28, 2019, 03:17:44 PM
We got Sept 30 peaking right now

and Oct 8 is lining up, muted now in ECMWF long range (which is also showing a blob over the North Pole)  and the Oct 17 blocking would be showing up soon.  I think it just did as that dot dead center as Oct 13... should materialize
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 29, 2019, 08:28:31 AM
Given the implications of a stalled atmosphere at these temps and Holy Christ I thought it is running away to Hothouse now

Maybe next El Nino
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Pmt111500 on September 29, 2019, 08:55:53 AM
Given the implications of a stalled atmosphere at these temps and Holy Christ I thought it is running away to Hothouse now

Maybe next El Nino

Umm, this would fit to the 2022-23 I got after sometime (2015?) using the most extreme extrapolation I could allow. This would be a possible mechanism of speedy clearance of Arctic Sea Ice. After 2017 didn't fall very low I've been more towards the speedier models estimate of late 2030s-40s. Not ruling this fast thing out, though. Some cool years ahead for North Atlantic after clearance, not much elsewhere.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on September 30, 2019, 02:21:03 AM
Here's a combined image of Arctic Atmosphere Height since it literally ran off the chart.

5 months straight.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 02, 2019, 09:04:33 AM
00z Wednesday GEM.  Can't post this on Twitter because their software filters out disease.

850mb Temp Anomaly of a very large input ensemble weather model: GEPS.  Hour 222

It's not quadrupole any more.  The entire atmosphere slowed down all September.  I say OCTUPOLE

Anthony Masiello says quadrant-symmetric, k=4

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1179074664817188866

GIF hosted here https://imgur.com/a/D9x2GOa
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 02, 2019, 12:32:47 PM
CanSIPS is out for October.  Here's the month of October 500mba
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 03, 2019, 04:46:29 AM
Vorticity reaches out over more of the globe as the entire pattern of "polar cell" precesses about, impinged by floods of Tropical Air reaching the North Pole every 15 days, every 8, and now every 4.

SPOOKY OCTOBER.  Blocking loading pattern is a cross.  It looks a lot like the first steam toy ever created, a pivot with 4 pipes like the spokes of a wheel.  sitting above water in a crude boiler and a stem, steam would shoot out of the 4 pipes.

The polar cell is severely impinged.  The way hot air is rocketing in from all sides simultaneously, My God.  Waves are breaking in the Arctic every 4 days at this point.

This GEM t850mba illustrates that fact of life.

Frightful!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 03, 2019, 04:56:43 AM
Anthony Masiello the Archangel has already found some kind of analog I don't even understand

"I sorted the Hurrell PC-based DJF NAO years since 1979 by most positive/negative. I plotted the 250mb height difference by subtracting the 10 most positive DJF from the 10 most negative DJF for Sep, Oct and Nov. Below is a loop of the 3 months in R1."

https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1178786898816503809
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 03, 2019, 06:13:02 AM
I don't know this signal, but from what I saw it went down to about the lowest ever.
Top is a year of total atmosphere force.  July, August, and September are all under.

http://atlas.niu.edu/analysis/aam/MR-latest-365days.png

This kind of thing is dangerous, a line up of influences that contribute to weak polar vortex.  for now, I think just amped extremes, retrograde surprises, weak polar vortex, more of the same, only worse.

The ozone thing is due to the Southern SSW and the polar strataospheres.  I wonder what age of air looks like.  From where I'm sitting, looks like ozone created at the poles and not at the tropics lately

Singapore Sonde Station:  https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 08:34:10 AM
AAM dropping

Ensembles are strongly AO-

can't turn away.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 09:33:19 AM
QBO winds shapes in the form of a trend graph.  Gives you the sense 2019 is making a turn in the same way as 2016.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/#singaeof

2015-2016 was the first time there was an interruption of the QBO progression.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/#momentump

https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/6813/2017/

Response of trace gases to the disrupted 2015–2016 quasi-biennial oscillation

This should have been a once in a lifetime event.  I'll bet $300 it is happening again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NHCiXPGqlVY
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 09:38:29 AM
Right now you can literally post any chart and you'll look like a genius because there's a cool signal on each one!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 05, 2019, 07:33:50 AM
Or literally just post any academic paper

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600

It is well known that global warming in the 20th century has influenced the global circulation of the atmosphere. Atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the Earth's axis, is a useful quantity to investigate changes in the global atmospheric circulation. In this study, 20th century trends in the AAM budget are determined using the ERA‐20C reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). In addition, the closure of the AAM budget is determined to assess the ability of ERA‐20C to conserve angular momentum. The total AAM has increased in the 20th century, associated mainly with an increasing relative (zonal wind) AAM in most of the stratosphere and the tropical upper troposphere, and a poleward redistribution in the midlatitudes. These trends can be related to the warming in the troposphere and cooling in the lower stratosphere found in this study, likely caused by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The Ω‐AAM, representing the rotation of the atmosphere along with the Earth, shows no clear trend, but a spurious peak around 1920. This peak is caused by a global increase in surface pressure and is considered an artefact of changes in the amount of assimilated observations. It is also found that the AAM budget is not well closed in ERA‐20C, which is mainly the result of the assimilation of observations during production of the reanalysis. The trends in the AAM budget in ERA‐20C are likely affected by changes in the number of assimilated observations and should be validated with other reanalyses in further research.

http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 05, 2019, 07:55:08 AM
same article

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600

A useful quantity to study the global circulation of the atmosphere is the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM), which is related to the global surface pressure and zonal wind distributions. The AAM is a measure of the rotation of the atmosphere around the north–south axis of the Earth. Since angular momentum is a conserved quantity, the angular momentum of the atmosphere, the solid Earth, and oceans combined is constant in the absence of external torques (Peixoto and Oort, 1992). However, angular momentum is exchanged between the atmosphere and the Earth and oceans by torques. The two main torques acting on the atmosphere are the friction and mountain torque, caused by friction at the Earth's surface and surface pressure gradients across orography, respectively (Peixoto and Oort, 1992).

With all these predictive signals lighting up hot what gives.  Is QBO-E better or worse for polar vortex?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: MyACIsDying on October 05, 2019, 01:30:51 PM
same article

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600
..

Lots of one year graphs/temporal events in this thread, AAM is on an upward trend if anything? They're using a lot of different Mx figures though, where do I find a long term graph of your one year source that puts this largest drop ever into context?

Quote
5.2 Trend analysis
To study trends in the AAM budget, the monthly mean AAM and monthly mean torques were calculated throughout the 20th century using the ECMWF ERA‐20C reanalysis. We found that the total AAM has increased during the 20th century with a linear trend of approximately 0.86×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year. In response to a doubling of the CO2 concentration in about 60 years, Huang et al. (2001) observed an increase in AAM of approximately 2.4×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year. Averaged over 16 climate models, Räisänen (2003) found an increase in relative AAM of about 1.0×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year when the CO2 concentration doubles in 70 years. Both increases are larger than the trend found in this study, which is not surprising, because the CO2 concentration has not doubled yet in the 20th century (IPCC, 2013). In reanalysis data, del Rio (1999) found an increase in the length of a day of about 5.6×10−5s per year between 1949 and 1997, which corresponds to an AAM trend of approximately 3.3×1023 kg m2 s−1 per year (Rosen and Salstein, 1983). This trend is also significantly larger than the trend in this study, which may to some extent be explained by the shorter time period studied by del Rio (1999): as shown in Figure 3b, the AAM trend in the second half of the 20th century is slightly larger than the trend in the whole 20th century. Paek and Huang (2013) found a positive AAM trend in the 20th century in CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations, due mainly to an increase in relative AAM. Using the NCAR/NCEP 20CR reanalysis data, Paek and Huang (2012) also found an increase in relative AAM between 1871 and 2008. Although they did not quantify the trend explicitly, it is of the same order of magnitude (figure 1a in Paek and Huang (2012)) as the trend in this study.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2019, 06:36:24 PM
sark...would like to thank you for bringing this thread to life with links to research. No doubt, global warming will have huge impacts on atmospheric circulation. Would love to have the more informed here explain to idiots like me what these changes mean. Something more than we're screwed please.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: HapHazard on October 06, 2019, 02:25:00 AM
sark...would like to thank you for bringing this thread to life with links to research. No doubt, global warming will have huge impacts on atmospheric circulation. Would love to have the more informed here explain to idiots like me what these changes mean. Something more than we're screwed please.

+1
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 07, 2019, 01:07:05 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

October 7th is here and the cut off block is reaching the North Pole on time.  Every 8 days, no change yet.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 07, 2019, 01:33:34 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

I'm trying to put an end to this with falsifiable claims

October 7th is here and the cut off block is reaching the North Pole on time.  Every 8 days, no change yet.
This will be accompanied by the second major snowstorm of the season for Montana, with heavy totals now also forecast for everything from Minneapolis and west. Most of the agricultural heartland could see temperatures dip well below freezing. And I think snowfall totals may ultimately extend into the Chicago suburbs. Very bad news!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 07, 2019, 02:05:17 AM
So far, nobody thinks the QBO progression is reversing.  Looking around at all the indications and factors that enhance long range predictability, right now everything is lined up for weak polar vortex

Except the QBO

So I kinda think QBO-E rising.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 07, 2019, 03:16:07 AM
I've combined the CPC's Arctic Atmosphere polar cap height to include the entire event in the Northern Hemisphere.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml


Very interesting reading:

Brian Farrell, however, argues that the assumptions are not accurate for equable climates and that during equable climates, angular momentum is not conserved in poleward moving particles (1990). He claims that angular momentum sinks, essentially sources of friction, could have been stronger during the Eocene and the Cretaceous. Farrell estimates that the friction term in his model would increase by eightfold under equable climate conditions. This change would prevent angular momentum from being conserved. In this situation, the zonal velocity would not become strong enough to stop air from moving poleward. Instead, air from the equator would be able to travel all the way to the poles in extended Hadley Cells.

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html

https://brian-f-farrell.fas.harvard.edu/publication
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 07, 2019, 09:38:38 AM
papers are dropping hot in 2019

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00703-019-00663-y

A weak positive AAM trend is detected, but an examination of the AAM budget shows that on annual to decadal scales, the signals of the AAM and total torque are inconsistent. During the study period, the total torque was mostly negative and had a decreasing trend, suggesting a decrease of the AAM. To check this inconsistency, we analyze the time series of the length-of-day anomalies, ΔLOD. It is found that ΔLOD is weakly correlated with the AAM, while the derivative of the earth’s core-induced ΔLOD is strongly correlated with the torque. If this is correct, then a core-induced climate change can indeed happen.

if you look for things that could be restructuring boy the hits just keep coming

the Chinese are more fun than Harvard
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 08, 2019, 09:10:42 AM
Dr. Judah Cohen at the AER Risk Assessment has identified a coupling of tropospheric and stratospheric polar lows, looking forward about 10 days time.  This would create a proper basin in atmospheric heights over the Arctic for a positive arctic oscillation mode, with a slightly less "wavy" jet stream, or at least one that isn't dissolving as much

This forecast is an improvement and it would, for the first time, interrupt the 5 straight months of high anomalies over vast reaches of the Arctic.  We would get less severe weather, and I think zonal flow would start to strengthen.

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1181231290349215744

It was famously predicted, here in this thread, that there will be jet streams at the north pole 4 times, 8 days apart.  I didn't want to predict anything because of how much of a complete nonsense Dunning Kruger I am on this, but I went down the rabbit hole to see for myself, so might as well see what it's worth.
 
2018/2019 was a cold winter on this chart, never expected it to be so well behaved again?
 http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Well what have I heard a dozen times?  That the recovery enables the big anomaly.  A big melt year will be preceded by a recovery year.

In systems thinking you could also identify a return to normal right before an outright crash.  Resistance right at the breaking point.

What I do, is just like... we could be experiencing mixed modes of ice age inter-glacial vs. Eocene Hothouse and be losing angular momentum as a result.  That would, complete wild guess, be a feedback that is not assessed.  Climate models are tested for retained atmospheric angular momentum, because it is a value that is assumed to be conserved in our future.  Well if there's this much mixing, where's the friction?  Adiabatic heating and wave interference along with heavier storm bursts.  Raising the tropopause 15 meters worldwide was a really bad idea.  It allows waves from the tropics to cross over the north pole.

So I am extremely interested in how this forecast plays out.  I want to be wrong about there being perpetual splashes of jet stream across the Arctic four or eight days apart, making it look like the whole atmosphere is stalling. 

It never should have lasted this long.  Since May 1 2019.  I thought it would not have lasted this long, but stratospheric polar vortex was always gonna stomp all over this thing in the end.  There will be a stratospheric PV formation just like every winter.  It will catch a wave and begin to pinball around the Arctic in November, and it will experience a messy destruction in January or February with cruel cold Arctic outbreaks in the Upper Plains & Great Lakes, and this will be completely normal and boring compared to the past five months of 2019.

I know some predictive tools have been bullish on a very strong polar vortex signal with definite AO+ NAO+ going back 6 weeks.  Now it's showing up in the weather models.

If this is coming true, then there will not be a large heat anomaly and accompanying jet stream ridge breaking off into a cut off high in the vicinity of the North Pole on October 16-18 and there is hope for a real change in the pattern.

and if not*, I will bug out early, see you in Patagonia where we will eat beavers and wait for land to open up in Antarctica

I will be watching the ocean heat anomalies

I will be watching the polar cap height FOR SOME BLUE https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

The AO index and predictability: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

And I will be watching very closely for evidence we aren't bleeding AAM like we're dying http://atlas.niu.edu/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on October 08, 2019, 11:27:59 AM
A nice summary. Is there an archive for polar cap height somewhere?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 08, 2019, 11:31:46 AM
A nice summary. Is there an archive for polar cap height somewhere?

yeah.  ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/

I haven't found an easy way to look at them, instead am just looking at 500mb over the Arctic for summers back to '48.  I'd like to plot or find a method to plot them in this format, if you can find one
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 09, 2019, 08:14:45 PM
Good strength here.  Continued deepening low over the North Pole in ensemble forecast.  In my view, this forecast breaks the five month streak of runaway worsening conditions for structural coherence of the atmosphere.

I do think the high height anomaly on Oct 16-18 arching up over the Kara Sea region will strengthen but so far the symmetrical loading from the other side of the planet looks rebuffed by a loose polar front.  A crazy ridge & Scandinavian block is preferable, IMHO, to a wide open incursion of high heights blasting across the North Pole.

Think positive AO
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 11, 2019, 08:55:53 AM
This is the most impressive I have seen it for five and one half months.  Good strengthening trend observed. 

around the 1st of October it seems like a lot of people on wxtwitter were saying Boom.  I don't know what it was, but in early September I saw it referred to as a "line up."  something about the climatology lining up with the weather patterns.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 11, 2019, 11:15:44 AM
Sark - FYI a brief discussion between my Arctic alter ego and Judah Cohen:

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1182311566265462784
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 05:22:34 AM
did you know about this
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 05:25:22 AM
look at the actual values of meridional

will it look stupid if I draw all over these charts with shitty GIMP tools to point stuff out

how this all comes together.  it's very bad
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 05:38:10 AM
It's the dynamics
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 06:31:34 AM
Red is height?

Apparently the tropopause pressure is lowering as the height increases.  Yes I know it is a short period but that's the point.  This started with "what's really going on" after merely watching for the past 20 years.  I spent the past year looking for my answer and I'm feeling close to finished

Tropopause pressure is lower meaning IMHO the wave tank is taller by in the neighborhood of 200 meters?  In my mind,  atmospheric momentum must be slowing by this cap height rise.  different waves can propogate with a slowdown.  well, dynamics.

: http://code7700.com/weather_tropopause.htm

So AAM should be long term down as in Gong 2019 starting right about 1998 when things really kicked off with the jet stream, and the weather, die-off, heat rise, sea ice, etc.  Clearly clearly we are in Runaway with no one stopping it.

I can't believe anyone would think snow cover on land is not an important coupling with the atmosphere and therefore, extreme weather.  I saw those papers coming out trying to discredit the good work done by very technical, careful application of science into new frontiers

This  is a public service.  There's no time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ls2q6cTZMRs
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 13, 2019, 11:27:25 AM
I would propose we re-dub our current year -12. By all accounts 2031 is our new year 0. We just have not yet acknowledged it.

It is interesting to consider what the practical implications would be of a BOE. Like, heavy snows beginning in August, no cohesive polar vortex, and dual vortices establishing themselves early in Eurasia and North America. At that point the only remaining MYI may actually be sheltered in Hudson or Kara or Okhotsk (or some combo of the three) in addition to the CAA and southern CAB.

When the event begins, as it did in the Younger Dryas, the snowfall will not stop for the next summer in the coldest locations. Imagine winter 2014-15 in Boston, but tack on another 100" in March, and then in April, with another 50" in May and continued snows into June before insolation ultimately does the trick (for the last time in a long time).

How much snow will it take until the interstates are unusable? How much SWE will it take before roofs start caving in? How deep does the snow have to get before the power fails? How frequently do storms have to occur for maintenance to become impossible?

If a population is frozen in place, with no way to escape, and the power fails, there would be guaranteed mass death occurring in short order. Such an event would be much more democratic than heatwaves, where air conditioners provide relief for some.

What use is a generator when it is encased in snow 10' deep, and you can't vent through your roof because it is also covered in snow XX feet deep, and the power goes out? At that point, you are dead, and so is everyone else. Either from freezing, running out of food, carbon monoxide, or your roof caving in.

History indicates this is precisely what happened at the onset of the Younger Dryas. It didn't happen everywhere -- the Southeast US was safe -- but where onset occurred, the switch flipped instantaneously, in the span of a year. It is because the impending event is due to cascading impacts that will only be realized to be "final" (for our purposes) after they have already occurred.

#blackpill
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: be cause on October 13, 2019, 01:37:02 PM
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 02:27:28 PM
I tend to believe the weather models that line up with the near term climatology.  that whole quadrupole thing is coming back in a big way.  See how many isobar figure 8s you can find across the north pole https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019101212&fh=1

240 hour GEM *is* the tropopause anomaly.  this is what is meant with "lining up with the climatology" as I understand it.  this thing is a wave guide for weather we don't like
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 02:29:49 PM
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.

Why not all three?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 13, 2019, 07:47:14 PM
so if the warming doesn't get you , bbr's snow most certainly will . Just chill .. b.c.

Unpacks parka...
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 13, 2019, 09:22:51 PM
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.

Operating theory is "we are in a runaway abrupt climate flip" and I want to disprove it to myself, but bear it in mind that I am completely unconstrained in my thinking & language.  Full power Dunning-Kruger.  This is from a lone mind bent on survival.  I don't have any allegiance or hesitancy based on academic norms.

I managed to click on the running mean AO index from 1950-present over here https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/month_ao_index.shtml

Added Paint.exe black line connecting the Jan 1 position for the last couple of years.  It would seem reasonable to guess that the AO index will be hovering around neutral on Jan 1 2020.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 05:20:34 AM
When October looks like the thing, heh.  Yeah.  Things are changing at an exhilarating pace.

If you don't know what any of this means, just think the same general trends of the past 3-5 years, but more of it in the future.  Big mf storms.  Like in the Eemian, we're basically at that point now.

I would think that in 5 or 10 years it'll go beyond that.  At some point population will peak and then we will turn away.

This is giving voice to the unthinkable.  That's my special sight.  I'm just a broken clock pointed in the right direction.  IMHO
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 05:41:37 AM
at all levels practically.

doesn't matter that we still have sea ice.  whatever is wrong is already wrong too much, by looking around

I don't even need a bunch of fancy analogs, just use the last 3 or 5 years.

I question everything and wouldn't be surprised to see everything swing the other direction even worse.  I can't tell what the pattern of this quadrupole shape is actually doing right now, because the signal of rise in common atmosphere heights is so fast it blows out anything else.  the point is, what we already got is too much to take.  I'll tell you one thing, it's not gonna stop getting worse.  what's the rate it's already worsening at, collapsey?  This is apocalyptic.

Stupid polar cell is failing, we get it.  that's what the science all proved years ago.  Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more.  I've talked about this because it's to the point I'm thinking last hail mary moves to make.  I want to know more but it may have to wait

the risk of BAU is too much for me.  I might bug out a little early and catch some more conifer forests before they're gone.  I don't necessarily think fast collapse is in our DNA and it'll be much more like 2035 before human population peaks, but that's cynical and based on what we all do next

you be the judge
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 20, 2019, 09:12:24 AM
I feel like there used to be one spinning top (the Polar Cell). Now we have multiple spinning tops. The switch from one spinning top to multiple spinning tops initially results in chaotic locations for the new vortices (tropospheric polar vortices, as distinguished from the traditional polar cell), but over time, as the old primary polar cell dwindles further and further (because it isn't entirely dead yet), the new cells are gaining much more continuity.

By the time the transition is complete, I wonder if we will have relatively stable multiple secondary vortices. In sync with no main polar cell at all. This would actually make quite a bit of sense if continental snowcover keeps increasing as sea ice heads towards 0.

If sea ice is under 1M KM^2 and there is something like 10-15M KM^2 of continental extent (or greater), and this is a scenario that is very possible in a very short order (relatively speaking -- like, maybe 10 years away, at most probably 15), the failure of the sea ice is going to put a wall of extreme +500MB anomalies across almost all of the Arctic Ocean. At that point we will have two (or more) vortices across North America / Greenland and Eurasia. Instead of the old weather we are used to, there will be relatively steady -500MB blobs focused in the continents, continually advecting cold blasts over the oceans, and ensuing oceanic heat up into the Arctic.

As long as Greenland is extant, we have at least one cold air source as potent as Antarctica remaining in the NHEM (although it is far smaller aerially). The higher the temps in the Arctic go, the more efficient the continental snow engine will become, and the more steady the pattern will also become, because Greenland is barely melting even with +1.5C of warming vs 100 years ago (or whatever we are at).

To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

The shifts in the atmosphere in recent years, as posted by Sark, illustrate this explicitly.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 20, 2019, 10:42:39 AM
sark, I still do not understand what you are trying to point to, other than the possibility of runaway climate change in general but I do not think your charts support that

yes, there is arctic amplification, we all know that

yes, the quickly changing arctic is creating perturbations elsewhere, eg. the cooling of the Hudson/Great lake regions and Inner Asia during winter; more snow and rain in Siberia/Alaska/Greenland; a curvier jet stream, leading to usually a warmer Europe and Alaska during winter; cold outbreaks, mostly in N.America; PV splits, leading to changed wind patterns in NH midlatitudes.
These are all well known, yet it does not mean runaway climate change. If you have any ideas other than these (and the like) please be less cryptic and give us more solid, understandable explanations about the reasons and the consequences.

Eg to stay on topic: a warmer indian ocean has a strong teleconnection to warmer Bering waters,etc...
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on October 20, 2019, 10:52:11 AM
Talking of the Indian ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is off the chart (https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/unusually-strong-indian-ocean-dipole-australia-europe-fa/) at the moment, apparently by far the biggest positive value they've measured in 60 years.

(https://www.severe-weather.eu/wp-content/gallery/long-range/iod1.png)

Unusually strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event develops, powers severe droughts in Australia, and supports warmer October in Europe. (https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/unusually-strong-indian-ocean-dipole-australia-europe-fa/)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 20, 2019, 12:57:40 PM
Talking of the Indian ocean, the Indian Ocean Dipole is off the chart (https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/unusually-strong-indian-ocean-dipole-australia-europe-fa/) at the moment, apparently by far the biggest positive value they've measured in 60 years.
...Unusually strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event develops, powers severe droughts in Australia, and supports warmer October in Europe.[/url]


This is a nice one binntho, thanks! This one is definitely going to be the warmest October since at least 1900 in Central Europe!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Archimid on October 20, 2019, 01:23:27 PM
Quote
These are all well known, yet it does not mean runaway climate change.


None of this is well known. This is all new and it's consequences unknown by anyone in the world. This is all currently subject to intense scientific scrutiny. Yet you are pretending this is all "well known" because you can't handle the truth. There is nothing logical scientific in that statement. Only pure fear psychology pleading for comfortable lies.

Please stop trolling sark, he is doing important stream of consciousness work on a phenomenon that will likely change all of our lives.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on October 20, 2019, 01:53:08 PM
Please stop trolling sark, he is doing important stream of consciousness work on a phenomenon that will likely change all of our lives.

If you read Sark's postings as a neo-post-apocalyptic poetry, then they are fine. Perhaps they should have their own "arctic literature" thread.

Try to get any relatable information whatsoever out of them is hopeless. El Cid was just posting what perhaps a lot of us are thinking.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Archimid on October 20, 2019, 02:52:34 PM
I read sark as a person exploring a phenomenom he doesn't fully understand, but he is trying to. I believe he posts here with the hope of acquiring insight from other posters and at the same time informing us of the changes. The vagueness is a function of his unknowledge. Exploratory science at its best.

But instead of receiving input from those who claim this is "well known", he gets pointless criticism and calls to shut up. Peer pressure.

And on the apocalyptic calls, apocalypse is the expected outcome of these changes, once you remove the illusion of human permanence. They are just barely beginning and they are being felt across the hemisphere, almost directly. It is not going to get better. Sark is right on point on that too. Scary, sure, but said any other way is lying.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on October 20, 2019, 03:10:09 PM
The human tendency to constantly expect an apocalypse of one sort of another is a very common delusion. This thread isn't about that. Sark's postings are on-topic but his skills as a communicator seem to be very small. When people express their frustration over the fact that he seems to be trying to say something very important, but totally failing to explain what it is, then they are suddenly trolling a "flow of consciousness" artist?

Please ...
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Archimid on October 20, 2019, 03:51:41 PM
Then you go ahead and explain the changes in the atmosphere and it's connections to the rest of the climate in near real time, with supporting images.  If this is such a simple and "well known" topic help sark, don't hinder him, much less shame him into silence.

But of course this isn't either well known or simple, and the possibility of apocalypse is so real that some people can't talk about it or bear the mention of it. So I'm not expecting any contribution.

I'm done interrupting this thread.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 20, 2019, 04:55:04 PM
Thank you all for not just laughing at me.  Although it is kind of funny.  What I have posted on this thread is truly thrown together by a completely unqualified researcher in full batshit mode.  There will be a more thorough and thoughtful write up, in time.



I think this is a hugely important topic...very complex and if it could be truly understood we would understand the world of hurt coming our way as this goes to the very heart of climate change. Very happy you created this thread. I visit often but have little to contribute as it is too complex for me.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 20, 2019, 05:01:49 PM
Now there's new papers coming out of China in 2019 that I don't even want to read any more. 

This is where you attach links to papers if you want this thread to be useful.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 05:49:01 PM
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-019-00663-y

Long‑term variations of atmospheric angular momentum and torque

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 05:58:26 PM
JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3823.1

Angular Momentum Conservation and Gravity Wave Drag Parameterization: Implications for Climate Models

The importance of gravity waves in determining the large-scale structure of the middle atmosphere is well established (Fritts and Alexander 2003). Gravity waves transport angular momentum from their source regions in the troposphere and exert a torque where they dissipate in the middle atmosphere. The angular momentum transfer due to small-scale gravity waves [gravity wave drag (GWD)] is not explicitly resolved and thus must be parameterized in general circulation models (GCMs); not parameterizing this process leads to unacceptable climate biases such as the cold pole problem
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 09:04:57 PM
I don't disagree with anything you are all saying except the bit about "shame" or "peer pressure" ... because LOL

no one is in danger of shutting me up

I have a timing belt job to do today or I would be writing this down from start to finish.  I work 55 hrs a week or there would be more time to put this down in coherent language.  As it is, I spend every waking moment outside of work going through what I've gleaned from 20 years of watching the planet's weather system contorting, in order to understand what is happening to our weather, what is wrong with the system, and therefore how it will look in the near future.

I am completely untrained and non-academic and these thoughts & opinions are formed out of casual observation of 20 years.  During the past year it has become a closely watched obsession because of the 500 millibar charts of the Northern Hemisphere (polar stereographic).  Watching the charts in motion during the past year has revealed something that is new and as yet unassessed by any science I can find...

Instead of a central polar cold basin in the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, the system is being stretched out to TWO main poles of cold, one centered over the Kara Sea and the other Hudson Bay.  These two poles of cold are extremely evident in weather forecasts, reanalysis, and climate studies which model the impact of thin sea ice.

Zonal winds on planet Earth are Westerly, yes?  In fact, if you were floating in geostationary orbit, the Earth's rotation would be Westerly.  Headed toward the East.  So, the atmosphere is flinging forward of the rotation of the Earth.  From East to West. 

Jets form up where this spiraling North pattern of zonal wind folds over itself.  A rough illustration of a northward westerly spiral on a globe is offered in image 2

The climate system of the Earth is a twist on a globe.  It's also possible to think of it as a *whistle* but that's going to be a tough sell I think

So what have we all been seeing for 20-30 years in macro weather on Earth?  Jet stream ridges and troughs amplified.  Arctic Amplification.  The central theory behind why jet stream waviness is increasing is that the atmospheric heights over the Arctic are rising.  There is a decreased slope from Tropics to Pole in the atmospheric height.

When this effect becomes as extreme as we have seen in the past 3-5 years, the two main poles of cold emerge in all of the charts.  Now you get vorticity axes pulled out of the central Arctic and pinwheeling around TWO locations.  Grinding gears.  Two low pressure centers of atmosphere in close proximity.  What happens where they grind?  Well, you create two HIGH pressure centers at a 90 degree angle.  Thus, the quadrupole.  Not a dipole, a quadrupole.  Dynamically, the two low pressure centers are cast apart while the high pressure centers wheel in to the center.  From both sides of the Earth simultaneously, "blobs" or anticyclones breaking *through* the jet stream to reach the Arctic basin in chronic and repeated fashion.

Ok, well blocks and blobs and jet stream ridges have been with us forever, right?  What's the difference?  it's the *dynamics* now.  The fluid is churning.  Imagine a bathtub drain vortex.  As the water level decreases, the vortex begins to distort as the influence of waves generated in the fluid impact the rotation.  Well what would you expect if there are two drain holes down there instead of one?  A mighty slurp!  It will slow down the vortex through the effect of small amplitude, high frequency waves.

What happens eventually is the rotation of the body of water slows down and the water simply proceeds straight into the center without circling the drain.  Tropics to pole direct.

Right now we're in this chaos transition from a spiraling northward climate system to one more similar to an equable climate system.

It's been circling the drain forever.  Now the heights are such that the drain is slurping.  As a result, the circling slows.

As a wave guide, the geopotential height over the Arctic used to be more of an oval.  Now it is a figure of 8.  This is a catastrophic breakdown in the dynamical process that creates weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere.  We've been watching it happen for 20 years.

Atmospheric Angular Momentum is SLOWING

Every single climate model is tested to ensure that Atmospheric Angular Momentum is CONSERVED so that it does NOT run away.

IN THE REAL WORLD IT IS RUNNING AWAY

I mean look around... Does anyone think things will stop getting worse?

This is a feedback that is not assessed.  Prove me wrong, please!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 20, 2019, 10:19:13 PM
To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

I don't disagree with the overall picture expressed in this post, but I'm not sure there's enough time for a meaningful glacial expansion.  The Younger Dryas example is very interesting, but crucially, this occurred at a time when global temps were lower.  Now we are on this trajectory headed higher than even the conditions of the Eemian.

There will certainly be extremes of snow extending further out of the NHEM winter season.  I tend to think of it as the system fighting back, a negative feedback to global warming.  This is a system at the breaking point.  The incredible stability of the past 10,000 years of weather gives some indication that it is hard to break.  This also suggests that once broken, it will be very hard to get back.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 20, 2019, 11:30:29 PM
all right sark, this is much better I now understand more what you think of (and that is all i wanted regardless of what others might have implied)!

So, we have two poles of cold instead of one. That is evidently happening, no argument there. However, your poles of cold are NOT low pressure centers, but highs (like the Siberian high). You will have one HP center in Siberia and one in the Hudson/CAA/Greenland region. And you have two low pressure centers in Bering/Alaska and Barents. In my view as we lose arctic ice only one of those remains, an elongated one all over the Arctic Sea (i attach a very poor drawing of what i think of - sry for the quality).
Now, the question is, what sort of changes would this setup mean for NH midlatitudes????
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 21, 2019, 12:23:31 AM
...You will have one HP center in Siberia and one in the Hudson/CAA/Greenland region. And you have two low pressure centers in Bering/Alaska and Barents. In my view as we lose arctic ice only one of those remains, an elongated one all over the Arctic Sea (i attach a very poor drawing of what i think of - sry for the quality).
Now, the question is, what sort of changes would this setup mean for NH midlatitudes????

Interesting idea.  Persistent winter low over the arctic ocean would have fairly powerful effects in retarding emission of heat to space in the long polar night.  This might be how it is that alligators used to live on Ellesmere island.  Winter clouds along with summer sun would tend to store huge amounts of heat in the upper levels of the arctic ocean.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: HapHazard on October 21, 2019, 01:34:23 AM
all right sark, this is much better I now understand more what you think of (and that is all i wanted regardless of what others might have implied)!

Exactly what I was looking for, as well. Thanks for sharing, sark, and keep it up!  :)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 01:54:29 AM
the Siberian high is a winter sea level pressure phenomena whereas the focus on structure & dynamics of the polar cell is better spent above about 850hPa
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 02:16:06 AM
I will re-post this gif which is historical and not prediction.  I took all the hour 0's from GFS and put them together to animate the polar cell at 500 millibar height across the beginning of May, 2019

This is the whole issue to me right here.  This keeps happening.  The anomaly shown above has grown to the point that the entire polar cell splits in half and there are at least a dozen examples in the past year. 

The polar cell is trying to rip in half in order to circulate about the two cold poles.  Of course it splashes right back in to the center, but then you find it setting right back up again.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 21, 2019, 02:38:00 AM
To date, in modern human history (and since 11,000 years ago), the annual snow engine has been idle enough to AVOID glacial expansion under the moribund equilibrium. Turning the Arctic Ocean ice-free will change that. When the land becomes the primary area of "cryospheric battery" for which the atmosphere gets more bang for its buck, I think it is possible we see primary annual ice-mass gain transfer from the ocean to the land, a process that is already underway. This eliminates the impact of warm Arctic waters on albedo, as well (from a net perspective, a la Daisyworld, and the system will indeed optimize for efficiency in this case as well)

I don't disagree with the overall picture expressed in this post, but I'm not sure there's enough time for a meaningful glacial expansion.  The Younger Dryas example is very interesting, but crucially, this occurred at a time when global temps were lower.  Now we are on this trajectory headed higher than even the conditions of the Eemian.

There will certainly be extremes of snow extending further out of the NHEM winter season.  I tend to think of it as the system fighting back, a negative feedback to global warming.  This is a system at the breaking point.  The incredible stability of the past 10,000 years of weather gives some indication that it is hard to break.  This also suggests that once broken, it will be very hard to get back.
I think the problem is that as the state-shift occurs the dual vortices are going to get much stronger. Winter is going to start earlier and last later for certain regions.

But what happens when we hit BOE and the re-icing is minimal? Like, 1M KM^2 minimum, on October 1st, with only 3-4M KM^2 in extent by New Years? At that point volume is going to barely recover.

But you know what will be taking up the slack? The snowfall on the continents. In fact the warmer the Arctic gets while Greenland is extant, the more snow will fall. We have melted .1% of Greenland since 2000. .1%!!!! In 20 years!!!! We are not getting to 10% let alone 5%, IMO.

The yearly anomalies for 2019 are going to be the most extreme since the 1970s or earlier across the United States. Parts of the Dakotas and Montana are going to finish -3/-4C for the YEAR. ! The highest maximums on the positive side are now substantially less relatively impressive than the colder minimums on the negative side. And that is with only .1% of Greenland gone!

What is going to happen next? The continental snowfall increase is going to start worsening exponentially as more and more open water persists each year. We are going to hit an annual max of 5,000 KM^3, then 6,000, then 7,000, then 10,000KM^3.

Around that point the annual cryospheric mass balance will probably shift to snow versus sea ice and we will see the first year with snow persisting in the higher elevations of North America through summer. That same summer could very well be the BOE up north. From that point the residual snowpack across the continents has an expanded baseline to grow on during summertime, through solstice, and it begins increasing exponentially in depth and water content. By the third or fourth year as the snows have spread, May, June, July, and August become the prime time for snowfall accumulation in the glacial zone, with the contrast between the GHG-enhanced oceanic warming and the albedo-cooled continental interior sufficient to result in quasi-permanent mega-storms in the flux regions of the -500MB vortices over Hudson Bay and the Kara (this is how Hansen's mega-storms occurred).

I think it is important to note that while each autumn will revert to the dual-vortex state mentioned by sark, without the sea ice, momentum is (IMO) on North America's side by springtime due to its positioning near Greenland, especially as sea ice dwindles further near Eurasia. If Hudson Bay becomes a bastion of MYI, which it will if snow begins building across North America's higher elevations, the Kara vortex will collapse by April or May as Eurasia is overwhelmed by the raw impact of continental heatwaves (since CO2 is still 420ppm or at that point, 435ppm or whatever).

The North American vortex will persist through the summer until a new Eurasian vortex again appears in the fall. So Eurasia becomes the focus of massive summertime heatwaves and an extension of major positive height anomalies while the opposite occurs in North America (much of Eurasia will eventually follow into perpetual winter as the NAmerican pack expands dramatically each year but it will take some time since concurrent with North America's cooling, there is a decent chance that through all of this the Arctic Ocean will STILL BE WARMING).

The coupling of the vortex, snowfall, sea ice, and residual ice sheet (Greenland) is likely to result in a much earlier "winter" for North America than Eurasia, and this event sequence is also confirmed by the staggering of the arrival of previous cold periods per geological records (it generally goes North America -> NW Europe -> Eurasia -> East Asia). So while the two vortices we are seeing form are quite interesting, I think the North American vortex is the more anomalous, and will eventually become more dominant on an inter-annual basis, at least for a few decades.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: philopek on October 21, 2019, 03:39:35 AM
As usual there is too much talk about persons instead of practical no-nonsense.

Due to never ending rivalry and group (herd) dynamics people have obviously trouble to discuss differing points of few without getting to offense and defense patterns.

One guy makes an esoteric statement based on good expertise, someone else starts to question a few extreme terms based on realistic views and the always present gooders found another reason to play their role as good hearted defenders of the poor.

Result, everything useful on the topic has been suppressed and the bickering goes on for pages to come.

We all know that @sark knows what he's talking about while my thought was what he threw in before posting, 2 whiskies or 2 joints.

This is not offending, it's just that the terminology needed to get used to and it's totally legit to tone down to a more factual level without disregarding the good intention and the valuable core of the content.

It's those who think they're entitled to fall into defense mode and defend themselves and everyone does not receive pure acclamation. It's basically the root of leftism that is well meant but will never work because we cannot afford to push the weak up and pull the strong down.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: aperson on October 21, 2019, 03:58:50 AM
My naive impression is that we're seeing the beginning of an equable climate forming in the night time tropospheric polar vortex. In general, the shapes sark is showing look like patterns composed of spherical harmonics that are moving from a lower energy state to a higher state. These higher energy states seem to be stable as they increase meridional heat transport and form stable blocking patterns. In essence, once you break out of the lowest level harmonic (a single large tropospheric vortex), you get self reinforcing patterns that let air in and out of the Arctic (configurations with 4, 6, 8, etc... quasi-symmetric nodes).

Of course, this is all conjecture from me as well since I'm not a researcher in this field. But these patterns have jumped out to me as a casual weather watcher as well.

Edit: Maybe Chladni plates provide another example of what these cross-sections look like as they move from lower to higher energy states (in this case, lower hz to higher hz): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tFAcYruShow
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 05:07:13 AM
One guy makes an esoteric statement based on good expertise, someone else starts to question a few extreme terms based on realistic views and the always present gooders found another reason to play their role as good hearted defenders of the poor.

I take your points and enjoyed reading that, but don't really see it on this thread. 

And yes, in order to give voice to the unthinkable it has been necessary to dive deeply, and this state of mind is useful to gain insights into the real world.  I've been at this for over a year and the topic is starting to gain traction with serious meteorologists and researchers, so relief is at hand.

Soon it will be satisfied and no more such travel will be necessary.

I can't take any insult or credit, unfortunately.  Neither finds purchase.  I'm ok, you're ok.

Thank you for thoughts.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 10:27:47 AM
This short video series by the Met Office talking all about global circulation is actually some of the best work I've seen actually illustrating the topic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDEcAxfSYaI

I know I saw the name of the 3d polar vortex modeling, that I first saw from Andrej Flis.  Somewhere there is a paper about winter PV splits where the method used to draw a 3d polar vortex in software.  this is my favorite one, a classic SSW wave that actually arises as a rossby wave.  when the wave spirals up toward the Arctic,  it for some reason just proceeds to climb all the way up the polar vortex and destroy it

all the air that used to be a strong winter PV just drops.  the polar vortex starts all over again.  but it's the dead of winter so it'll spin right back up. 

But when that happened on May Day of 2019, it finished the winter PV off right then and there.  but instead of a peaceful fade of the westerly winds of the 10-6hPa polar vortex, there was a 2nd SSW last winter

and there was no correcting influence all spring & summer long

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jas2EPAEb0

I'm happy the PV is back but... it will do all the displacement & wave climbing & splitting things.  $45 on there being a SSW this winter.  It would be exciting to not see Arctic Outbreak across Eastern Montana, Both Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, New England etc.   right?

Last year there was a PV split.  I can't find a climatology on the 2014-present PV splits.  Was it all of them?

Look, it's already doing the thing

:D
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 10:53:52 AM
10hPa Wind on Nullschool.  The true "polar vortex" is the area surrounded by the rather strong, still forming Winter Night Jet, which surrounds the stratospheric polar vortex.  when this wind system experiences a sudden stratospheric warming its circulation gets polluted by a tropospheric wave. and only some waves, not all of them

with the above image depicting the first disruption of the still forming PV still in October.  Jesus Christ.  winter is coming early to a lot of places.  kind of a classic bad feedback.  thrown afield and absurdly wavy polar cell reaching out, dumping snow... warm arctic, cold continents.  so true.  so if the geopotential height is actually deeper at places outside of the CAB than it is above it, it has to split.

and what you'll see is the system oscillating in and out.  the AO index is probably ripe

I think we're seeing prediction factor indicators lead healthily out of the weird low, and the timing of a second SSW at Final Warming in 2020 would be absolutely bonkers.  2 in a row?  I think it will get better before it gets worse, but still

$45 on 2nd SSW at Final Warming in 2020
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 10:56:09 AM
aperson I think you're right about the tropospheric PV system in winter

I found it at 1000mb Potential Temperature.  Now, i'm not certain that means geopotential.  I think it means something else.  But, it's there

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 11:14:19 AM
November & December 2018

I bet every time it does this bad things happen down the road
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 11:34:02 AM
So all this came around eventually to what does it look like now?

Oct 11-18 1000 millibar air temperature, whatever that means, +/- 25C from the freezing point (you have to convert from K for dailies)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

1000mb is like 364 feet altitude standard height.  Our breath is in it
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 21, 2019, 12:13:11 PM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.

A ridge in the jet stream will form and dive right onto the Arctic to reach the North Pole on those dates.

This covers Oct 17, and that little low stayed put

3 out of 4 tho
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Archimid on October 21, 2019, 01:57:00 PM
This short video series by the Met Office talking all about global circulation is actually some of the best work I've seen actually illustrating the topic


Thanks for that video, from 4:03-4:28 explains what I believe to be the root problem. The polar front exists because the ice exists. Without ice then the temperature at the surface is warmer, removing the "force" created by the difference in temperatures/humidity.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 22, 2019, 04:47:30 AM
posting a wide image.  it is the product at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.shtml

because the "event" of summer 2019 goes clear back to May 1,  it is necessary to bolt two of these together

What you're seeing is a diagram of atmospheric height anomalies in the entire column of atmosphere in the Arctic.  This is a slowing

and folks, I'm not sure what is the seasonality of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum or Global Wind Speed calculation.  I know nothing about AAM. 

so here is a comparison of Arctic atmosphere average heights to AAM.

it'd be nice to build a polar cell map wall

*edit: almost gave myself a heart attack so I drew a box to illustrate the line up of the two, so the features don't look too similar
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 22, 2019, 08:47:34 AM
Textbook!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019102200/ecmwf_z500aNorm_nhem_9.png)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on October 22, 2019, 11:55:11 AM
Quick prediction easy to make:  atmospheric blocking reaching the North Pole..   Sept 30, Oct 8, Oct 17, Oct 25th.
A ridge in the jet stream will form and dive right onto the Arctic to reach the North Pole on those dates.
This covers Oct 17, and that little low stayed put
3 out of 4 tho
Thanks for following up on those predictions sark
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 23, 2019, 04:06:07 AM
Thanks for following up on those predictions sark

Absolutely.  When *my* predictions fall apart, it's a GOOD thing.  Love to be wrong about the central import of this, being "next year will be worse for food production".

The abrupt part is already established.  There is probably a department of a University or two titled something along the lines of "Abrupt Climate Change".  Plenty of orthodoxy science has expressed that.

Runaway probably requires a little more definition, in my view.  Runaway moist greenhouse is the thing that happened to Venus.  I don't think that.

Runaway to me means self-accelerating.  I do think we're there already.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 23, 2019, 05:29:22 AM
this link will only be active for a couple of days.  Press > press +++++

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2019102218&fh=132

Wow.

GFS gets it.  GFS shows us having 2 polar cells.  500 millibars.  This is completely realistic forecast, although it will not be as symmetrical or ugly as that.  but it looks bad at hour 0 just the same.  sure as hell looks like the worst winter PV state ever at 10hPa

It's been doing this for over a year.  It's been nearly 6 months since it convincingly held together in the middle for a period of time longer than 2 days.  It's coming back from the extreme negative northern annular mode where anticyclones were frozen in and traversing the North Pole with a period of 4 days recurring, and the stratospheric polar vortex is why it will improve to splitting every 8-16 days through Autumn.  As it descends & strengthens in the long polar night, it will create a very strong barrier against warm air.  and then the deep -AO events will stop.  Probably we will just return to super strong blocking as the overall situation improves for our dear Polar Cell

but the still forming polar vortex (not pictured) is already being hit by waves.  Jesus Christ

So it will hold together in winter but will be a marked increase in record setting stratospheric measurements like earliest winter PV displacement/split

I thought this was a joke back in February.  I said the polar cell is FAILING.  I still stand by that.  It's split from surface to tropopause and the tropopause is rising and splitting

Why I think it's runaway is because we have 2 polar cells.  That does not look good.  that could lead to a very rapid increase in places like Wyoming to become like South Texas.  No freezing temps year round.  Permafrost activating, I won't write the rest of the litany

if you're coming to it from reading paleoclimatology and seeing the Greenland ice core data, you might like the idea of 3-5 years before like SHTF truly with regard to climate.  Honestly I think it's worst case scenario and WCS is a threat.  Think of the fucking forcing at play right now

Climate Strikes are making it worse faster if we're losing dimming...

Turn something off!

and because we haven't approached this problem squarely yet.  we already have this catastrophic weather.  Corn is easily taking a -20% hit this year because of extreme weather.  Come on.  Cruelly satisfactory to "what collapse would look like" that a trade war among the powers over US Ag has perfectly played the farmers.  Plant lots of corn, now make due with $3 corn.  Corn is in serious danger from severe weather.  Hope you like sand in your tortilla chips IMHO

use Twitter somehow and go look up #Harvest19 and you'll see it

#Plant19 was scary.  #Harvest19 is scary.

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/63/2017/essd-9-63-2017.pdf

#9 28-Nov-68 earliest SSW in ERA-40 and the NCEP-NCAR I has one at 30-Nov-58

I think I'm losing the bet on QBO reversal.  That would be more like the moist greenhouse if that happens this year IMHO so I'm -$45

$45 on earliest SSW
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 23, 2019, 07:53:32 AM
Textbook!


There are big differences between ECMWF & GFS right now even though they're pulling closer together in the 18Z and 00Z Wednesday.  Inside of 100 hours.  Predictability seems *very* low, although once GFS hit into the cut off low over the US and caught up with the Euro, it established the same 360+ decameter height anomaly in the region of Alaska, 7 days later, Greenland, and 8 days after that voila an hour 360 blocking.  This is one amazing hobby lately...

At the end of summer there I think we saw a complete failure of the polar cell.  The height anomalies softened and broadened as there was no more resistance.  The chart red won.  Time spent in that mode at the end of summers will probably be when the worst damages are done.  There was no more 2 polar cells, there was just an annular ring of storms

Now we're back to having 2 polar cells, and it'll fill in more & more until there is a split and/or fall of the winter polar vortex.

I have a feeling the very beautiful and stable 2 twin daughter vortex PV splits of winters past are behind us and they will be more & more messy looking

check out the vorticity motion around this date, eyes on the north pole

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=DTpres&runtime=2019102300&fh=318
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 23, 2019, 10:05:40 AM
....  we already have this catastrophic weather.  Corn is easily taking a -20% hit this year because of extreme weather.  Come on. 

Corn is NOT taking a 20% hit.

See:

https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/14497-us-lowers-2019-corn-soybean-production-forecasts

Corn production is forecast 4.3% lower than 2018, and ABOVE the average of the 2010s. So much for arcticapocalypticpoetry
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 23, 2019, 10:57:54 AM
13.8 million bushels huh.  I'd recommend paying more attention to Ag, my friends.  You know both Dakotas hard froze on the 10th, right?  Was 30% of it mature?

https://twitter.com/kannbwx/status/1181306746683428864

You are constantly given opportunities to see these things for yourself, instead of complaining about my prose, do something helpful?

I found an interesting graphic to illustrate what happens with two co-rotating vortices:

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 23, 2019, 11:13:26 AM
Freezes ended the 2019 growing season across much of the western Corn Belt. Impacts on crop yields have not yet been fully assessed. U.S. corn & soybean development in other regions continues at record-slow pace.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1184823930688888832

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 23, 2019, 11:24:17 AM
The data is not yet apparent because the damage is still being done and has not been fully assessed, as sark's posts confirm. Also from the same account -- the soybean yield decrease this year is actually unprecedented.

It should be noted that it took about 2-4 years for the full impacts of the 2007 yield crisis to reverberate across the world. This was when Syria and Libya both collapsed, as did Egypt temporarily. What happens this go-round, especially if 2020 is worse than 2019?

Wyoming is clearly not going to become like Texas, in fact, Yellowstone's anomalies this year may be the coldest in the recent satellite record (no offense, sark). I believe Wyoming is at the center of the ongoing / worsening "cold pole" developing in tandem with the strengthening NAM remnant vortex.

It should be noted that lack of precipitation is the controlling factor for many areas of Greenland that do not have snow, as opposed to warm temps. I actually think this is also true in the High Rockies. Precipitation this year is 50-100% above normal (or higher) and much of that departure has come in the form of snowfall, and that is why we are now seeing yearly temps up to -6F over the Dakotas -- anomalies that could worsen further by December!

Yearly max temps up to 8F below normal is literally unprecedented in the modern record for the US (at least as far as I know). What happens if 10F, then 15F are around the corner? If winter expands further into May and June and September and October in these regions in the near future, which it is already showing signs of doing, we will hit those numbers very easily and in very short order. And by that point July and August will be next, and they will fall very quickly (IMO) and in tandem with the BOE (2031?).

While a Wyoming-to-Texas climate scenario is certainly possible, the increasing amount of moisture available at all times of year is (IMO) going to result in the snow line beginning to encompass much of the higher Rockies all year round. And this occurring already is why we are now seeing these ridiculous anomalies and failing crops.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 23, 2019, 11:39:03 AM
And now let's see the truth of geopotential height above the Arctic between May-Sep. Two pictures. 1950-80 ("baseline" of sorts), and 2016-19.

heights are getting higher everywhere, note Africa and the Carribean, but no disappearance of the polar cell so far
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 23, 2019, 11:49:26 AM
The polar cell has not disappeared, it has failed in its old form, and your maps scale is insufficiently specific to capture this change.

Here is the annual temp map for the US since 2016. We evidently go through cascading snowfall cycles that last multiple years (2011-2012 (WARM)->2012-2013 (transitioning to cold)->2013-2014 (COLD centered in Midwest / Rockies)->2014-2015 (COLD centered in Great Lakes) / reset (Super Nino, WARM winter 2015-2016). 2016->2019 is below.

(https://media.giphy.com/media/U1VDmTmofQN8h4dBfw/giphy.gif)

We are probably going to see another reset or two before the BOE occurs. Until that point, there will not be enough +OHC in the Arctic to result in substantial year-round snowcover outside of Greenland, so the reaction will continue running out of steam (although its severity is likely to continue increasing). But by 2031? With a BOE? Maybe it won't run out of steam.

It is interesting to note the sheer decline in annual temps since 2016 across the High Plains. Splotches of South Dakota were 50F for a 365-day average around this date in 2016. In 2019, they are under 40F for the last full-year period -- that is a HUGE shift! There is a huge swath of the northern plains that has colder temps than most of the highest Rockies did in 2016.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on October 23, 2019, 12:14:59 PM
Who needs crops!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019102300/gem_asnow_us_40.png)

Hopefully not us
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 23, 2019, 02:26:19 PM
Freezes ended the 2019 growing season across much of the western Corn Belt. Impacts on crop yields have not yet been fully assessed. U.S. corn & soybean development in other regions continues at record-slow pace.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1184823930688888832

You are correct in that the impacts have not been fully assessed.  That will not be known until years' end.  However, the markets are rarely off significiantly, and the current estimate of 13.8 million bu has not changed, and while the futures price went up slightly after the blizzard, it has settled back down to where it stood at the end of September. 

Both Dakotas combined account for about 8.5% of the total corn production in the U.S.  Most of the corn there reached maturity, before the blizzard hit.  Some farmers may be challenged to bring in the remainder of the crop before the expected hard freeze next week.   All in all, your prediction of a 20% hit to production seems rather pessimistic.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: HapHazard on October 23, 2019, 09:38:47 PM
I think I took a wrong turn somewhere & ended up in a thread about corn?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on October 24, 2019, 05:58:40 AM
arcticapocalypticpoetry
good one!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: binntho on October 24, 2019, 07:46:37 AM
An interesting article about current status and impending changes in the Polar vortex and the resulting changes in weather in Europe and the US. Large blocking highs over Greenland and Alaska, massive heat incursions into the Arctic, sever cold into central Canada and US, central and eastern Europe.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/pattern-change-cold-air-usa-europe-snow-expand-fa/?fbclid=IwAR1IkV0ym-7zFnlgzaK5U3rd4RQ5frUsPBqPRNEg1caFY47M-_PUGUZBVCo

They are predicting good news for snow lovers in areas where the Italian meterological site ilmeteo.it was only last week predicting minimal snow this winter (so much for long range forecasting, huh!)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 25, 2019, 04:32:57 AM
Nothing anyone says sounds right to me any more.  It was a mistake to bring up markets around humans.

My mistake

Fight me
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 25, 2019, 05:03:28 AM
I read somewhere, when looking up the cold pole problem, that not conserving atmospheric angular momentum would also increase precipitation. 

But we don't have a cold South Pole right now.  In fact,

Both polar cells are failing now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 25, 2019, 05:37:13 AM
bbr and others... now I see it.  compression snows and cut off lows

SNOW I SEE IT
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: apocalyps on October 25, 2019, 03:04:37 PM
I read somewhere, when looking up the cold pole problem, that not conserving atmospheric angular momentum would also increase precipitation. 

But we don't have a cold South Pole right now.  In fact,

Both polar cells are failing now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

I have trouble visualising the collapse of the southpole polar cell. Could you explain what is happening there? Love your insights and others, it made me sign up after lurking for 5 months
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: ReverendMilkbone on October 26, 2019, 03:10:46 AM
Is there any connection between the breakdown of the polar vortex and the crazy winds we are having in California?  PG&E is about to cut power again for the weekend.  :(
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 26, 2019, 05:57:00 AM
IMHO

Yes, if it is weather in the continental midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.  what we experience of weather is largely derived from the expression of the polar cell in this fluid system

Outside of the central tropics, the Earth's atmosphere progresses East, headed toward the rising sun.  Westerly Atmosphere flow.  Prevailing winds from the West

Overall the sky is flinging forward of the Earth's rotation, spinning faster than the planet.  this atmosphere direction is called zonal flow.  U+

it's a spiral from equator to pole.  like a twist top ice cream cone

where it twists, there's a jet stream

the polar cell is like a candy cherry garnish.  but your treat is melting in the sun & a little pool underneath the cherry has sent it adrift and it's wobbling around on top.

why not

Zonal flow causes winds from the West, or Westerlies, and these winds progress zonally like from Seattle to New York.

this could be described with flight of aircraft and angular momentum in the atmosphere & earth but thrust and friction and landing weight, a bit of a stretch for me, let's be honest

the opposite of zonal is meridional and that's wind blowing North South.  V+  Well,  since about the mid-1990's and definitely increasing the entire time since then is WHAT!?  not just of the jet stream, but everything.  literally weather extremes of ridges and lows and pretty much all storms.  Your situation is exactly that, something that always existed, but now it's severe weather.  The jet stream is crashing into the Earth.

well the major torque exerted between the rotating earth, the rotating fluid core, and the rotating atmosphere, and hell Retrograde planets & the Sun too, it is conserved.  AAM -is- slowing over time in our measurements.  Meridional measurements are pretty good and um, wow

https://www.timeanddate.com/time/earth-rotation.html#calc-daylength

because all the North South long contorted dissolving breaking jet stream action has begun scrubbing into the Earth with meridional friction.  letting the clutch out.

the Earth is speeding up.  the Earth's relative motion with regard to the atmosphere is catching up.  Days are shorter and gravity waves are sound

Climate models need to have atmospheric angular momentum reinforced with a parameter so it is not lost, because they're still practicing on the QBO

if GW isn't conserved in an atmospheric model, the energy basically gets "rained out" and the south pole gets very cold, because they don't have waves that can jack into the strength of the Antarctic winter polar vortex, which would become deeper in a warming model

the suspected reason for the too cold pole is the lack of wave interaction with the winter PV over Antarctica... so this SSW we are still having over Antarctica nearing its final warming.  Brutal

Because the slowing at the north pole has translated to the Southern hemisphere with some torque of its own and the whole entire atmosphere got VERY slow recently, about the slowest on record from when I had a chance to see a good record of AAM.  Right around Oct 1

So yeah pretty much any annoying weather is your own personal observation of it since the 90's but obviously since 2014
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on October 26, 2019, 07:59:16 AM
Atmospheric angular momentum:

nice summary on this site, worth reading:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90558-the-fundamentals-of-atmospheric-angular-momentum/

and a study:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 26, 2019, 08:29:39 AM
MJO ensemble forecasted into the circle of death

meaning what?

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really

on the first image in this thread you'll notice the MJO chart is up to date, because it was linked to a live image url. so the comment regarding what was shown at the time is unrelated to the up to date chart... you gotta scroll down to the bottom to see what it looked like in someone's response
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 26, 2019, 09:16:20 AM
Still have only seen the one site with an up to date charted AAM reading, atlas.niu.edu

This is a good explainer that describes what "Weak GWO" means, as is currently forecast

https://www.weather.gov/media/grr/GLOM2015/Presentations/Marino_GWOSevereStorms.pdf

weak global winds

it's been this way for four months.  I'd like to know what is the longest, weakest period of GWO in the archive
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 27, 2019, 01:30:34 AM
DUN DUN DUNNNN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gr_eg5Ri59E
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 27, 2019, 07:17:04 AM
This is Ed Berry https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-berry

One of the authors of the global synoptic–dynamic model (GSDM).  The product was available as GWO phase space on the CPC's website but it is currently offline there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cv5CblXbYuQ
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 31, 2019, 04:01:29 AM
plain 500mbs

First, well,
you see it

then a moment 48 hours from now

then the latest CFSv2 for November

lastly, November '18

spooky.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on October 31, 2019, 04:26:46 AM
I actually hate this

November 18

Actual temp readings in the Arctic are *often* split into two poles of cold, and dear Lord the actual atmosphere responds

Why wasn't this a problem when it was driven by solar minimum and thick sea ice weather?  What the hell happened in 1977?  because the thin sea ice is part of what causes this

Now you got solar minimum & thin sea ice piling on and creating a deepening crisis wherein atmospheric angular momentum has fallen negative for 4 months and doesn't appear to be rising yet, in fact signs point to nope

Well you would too if you had to flow around this damn thing

Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 01:40:40 AM
New CanSIPS is out and this is the prediction for November
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 04:06:18 AM
This is an 18 October Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model plot showing 4 weeks of information that is able to be conveyed on a single chart.  It's called a phase space diagram and you'd have to watch Ed Berry explain it on YouTube. 

I had the good fortune to run into this recently. (first image)  It shows conditions leading to barely neutral to negative global wind

The AAM is computed by interolating forecast of the operational numerical weather model:  http://aam.earthrotation.net/rt/

GIFS 1 & 2 Northern Hemisphere & Southern Hemisphere show complete polar vortex breakdown at all  levels.  Something is wrong.

Below that is the ECMWF at hour 240 around November 11 which is still on an 8 day cycle of the polar cell gyrating in & out as it turns atop the Earth.  Once the rest of this area fills in and the winter tropospheric polar cell gets going, there are models indicating very low sea level pressure over the Arctic in DJF.  Well, maybe the built up atmospheric angular momentum that is conserved in models by parameter wants to now push it forward and create a very strong zonal jet stream over the U.S.  why not

I hope it works that way but about half of these waves are breaking through the jet stream in late Summer - Autumn

Anyway, a lot of the other indicators like La Nina temps off the South American West coast suggest continued negative global wind speed (Mr) as measured atmospheric angular momentum.

In that lecture linked above on this page of Ed Berry in 2018, he speaks about a risk.  Atmospheric super-rotation, a condition in which tropical convection firing in the ITCZ tends to accelerate the atmosphere faster than the Earth's rotation

Ed also attests to a recent (since the 90's) trend of lower AAM, while he also asks *why* does thin sea ice lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation.

I think they lost faith in the GSDM after 2018.  Just like the Madden-Julian Oscillation long-range weather indicator is increasingly stuck in Phase 8, 1,  and 2

Academics aren't allowed to say this stuff, and in Ed's lecture he doesn't finish the sentence, but an atmospheric super-rotation is what most planets do.  Like Venus.  He may have been about to describe the differences in where waves originate on such bodies

We are at points on both of those renowned teleconnections GWO and MJO indicating low atmospheric angular momentum and seem to be stuck there

In forecast these products rely on models but they have to be watched real time, but they should outperform numerical models

well they do.  the remaining polar low is in such a shape that it causes a split vortex.  We see it when polar arms get spun out by tropical highs busting right through the jet stream and sticking to the North Pole until they dissipate. 

Maybe a big driver of that is solar minimum.  I kinda pray it.  It's also super obvious that another big factor is thin Arctic sea ice.

What I don't think *anybody* expected was according disruption of the Southern polar cell.

We're right now seeing a sudden stratospheric warming following through from the stratosphere to the ground and it is predicted to final warm the winter polar vortex over Antarctica in the next few days.  Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November.  This could be the earliest polar vortex sudden warming in NH winter ever.  I tend to think it will slightly defy description.

what we are seeing since 2013 and especially 2016, 2018, and 2019 is atmospheric restructuring.  all the processes of a stable global interglacial distribution of ground temperatures are broken.  the polar vortex, jet stream, zonal mass, and geopotential height over the poles.

this is the hothouse Eocene climate waking up.  how long is that supposed to take, 3-15 years?

WHY?  Well, one explanation is a self-reinforcing bad feedback loop worldwide with all these fatal factors piling on at once.

Jesus, be a sun spot.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 05:01:41 AM
hour 198 on the GFS starts to get realistic in terms of jet stream.  there is now an early indication that the block forming up near Alaska will result in a strong anticyclonic jet stream in the Arctic.  This is what happened October 26th over Greenland.  That frozen in anticyclone was also picked up by GFS at hour 198.  It pierces the polar front and results in a strong anticyclonic jet stream inside the Arctic Circle.

*16 days.  up from 0 and 4 and 8*

Winter is powerful.  it will get cold.  There is a polar front beginning to  form up as the rest of the Arctic Ocean area cools.  there will be a winter stratospheric polar vortex.  I just don't think it'll be very stable, which is adding to the problem of anticyclones cutting the polar cell in half, which is adding to the split condition

so the conjecture is, this is a self-reinforcing dynamic mode change.  That would explain why 2 years looked damn similar in a row
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 05:32:51 AM
The Southern Hemisphere's winter polar vortex has been destroyed by the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that began at the end of austral winter.

I will take questions now.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 01, 2019, 09:43:45 AM
Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November. 

There is absolutely no polar vortex spilt on any models, any timeframes at all
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 12:30:33 PM
Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November. 

There is absolutely no polar vortex spilt on any models, any timeframes at all

This is for 12 Nov at 50hPa
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 12:41:36 PM
notice the tropopause?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 01, 2019, 04:20:27 PM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

signs of warming already
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 01, 2019, 09:24:47 PM
This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 02, 2019, 01:17:07 AM
This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=39&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=3#mapref
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on November 02, 2019, 10:38:06 PM
This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=39&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Posing a question, as I have no rigorous understanding as yet of the dynamics here.

Would it perhaps be implied here that there is increasing turbulence resulting in disconnections in behavior between layers of atmosphere? 

Or, if the apparent disconnections is purely coincidental, is what we are seeing evidence of increased turbulence and increased disruption of existing patterns?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 04:41:47 AM
Posing a question, as I have no rigorous understanding as yet of the dynamics here.

Would it perhaps be implied here that there is increasing turbulence resulting in disconnections in behavior between layers of atmosphere? 

Or, if the apparent disconnections is purely coincidental, is what we are seeing evidence of increased turbulence and increased disruption of existing patterns?

That's an interesting question, afraid I can't touch it.

As far as what's in the forecast, the tropospheric polar vortex (or simply "Arctic air") is going to divide rather neatly into two chunks in the week Nov 7-14.  When looking at 50hPa the atmosphere responds in these GFS forecasts.  So basically you get  a perturbation and split polar vortex in the *troposphere* which then propogates upward and reaches as high as the top of the tropopause.

Does this convulsion enter the stratosphere and impact the winter Strat PV?

Not yet.

https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 06:22:22 AM
There is a convulsion coming
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 07:32:51 AM
https://imgur.com/a/eIdjZT0

The 00Z GFS runs away starting at hour 240

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019110300&fh=240
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 07:42:35 AM
When angular momentum is not conserved by parameterization in a weather model, it leads to a too-cold Southern Pole, as the models cannot resolve waves interfering with the stratospheric PV in the Southern hemisphere, and the lost momentum is rained out as precipitation.  Just sayin'

total rainfall should be showing increased in 2019 more than can be expected by the measly +1.3C global temp. I understand it can be difficult to get a good measurement of that.

Our global winds are crashing.

wind speeds at the surface rising, that means atmosphere slowing, right?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on November 03, 2019, 07:54:52 AM
This is super far out but it illustrates what Sark is describing perfectly. And while it is super far out I think we will see a look like this by the middle of the month.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110300/gfs_z500aNorm_nhem_65.png)

Oh, and the US is freaking FRIGID for the duration. The 00z GFS actually shows a major snowstorm in the Southeast, although I don't think it will verify, it is only 5 days out.

I would not be shocked if many locations in Montana etc "the Triangle of Coldness I will not shut up about" record their coldest Novembers on record. What is most disturbing is that there is such a seemingly strong correlation between this unprecedented cold in the NW Rockies and the ice-free conditions in the Bering etc. So what happens in 2025 when it is even worse, and doesn't refreeze at all, and we are piling up snow in these regions from September to May, and then it doesn't melt?

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110300/gfs_T2m_nhem_55.png)

While the above frame is over 10 days out, there are a couple before then that look very similar, mimicking the weather we have seen since September, which I imagine will only get worse.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110300/gfs_T2m_nhem_38.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110300/gfs_T2m_nhem_35.png)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 03, 2019, 09:11:18 AM
Lower level winter "splits" are not interesting, they happen every year very routinely. Does not mean anything. Just one example (the first date I randomly picked had it). You can find tons like these every year
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 09:42:18 AM
It usually doesn't happen all Spring & Summer & Autumn with a period of under 16 days, and then spread to the Southern Hemisphere.

Best I can suggest is check the rainfall quantities.  This should have increased more than the temperature increase would suggest, due to the falling AAM.

if this was 1968 or 1977 there would be less of a problem because the geopotential height over the Arctic was deep.  thick sea ice.  Now we seem to have the issue outlined above.  whatever influences are piled on here are resulting in a system that is showing signs of breaking.

How many stratospheric splits and SSW has the NHEM experienced since 2013?  Seems it ain't 0.6 per year.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 10:41:14 AM
Lower level winter "splits" are not interesting, they happen every year very routinely. Does not mean anything. Just one example (the first date I randomly picked had it). You can find tons like these every year

this is why we do things like look at anomalies

but this isn't going to be assessed here on this forum.  i'm not here to play scientist, and I'm sure as hell not the one to assess this information

you'd have to beat this, not point at random
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 11:09:12 AM
these are the years that stuck out in JJA anomalies and a couple of them beat '19 in severity & focus on the North Pole

but now we're kind of pushing 7 months straight :/

I'll have to re-do this on all the years in the archive using May-Oct to know if it beats all.  meanwhile the 06Z GFS is coming in
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 06:48:51 PM
500 millibar height anomaly +/- 90 meters, period of May 1 - October 31 from 1948 - 2019
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 03, 2019, 07:06:06 PM
Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet) 
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 07:42:42 PM
Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet)

Strawman

1.
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

and it's a real habit
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 03, 2019, 08:56:38 PM
This line of thinking should be assessed by someone else.  It's not going to be debated emotionally here on this hobby forum.  I'm not here to play scientist with you lot or participate in a nerd fight.

How many times can I repeat the thesis in question?  It must be a round peg for square holes.

Polar vortex destruction is leading to decreasing atmospheric angular momentum, which is a feedback upon itself.

Major factors include:

1) ocean heat / thin sea ice
2) solar minimum
3) annual geopotential heights

If this is true, it is an unassessed feedback in dynamics that could meet the definition of abrupt runaway, a self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to a relatively rapid change of system mode.

If not true, we'll see AAM roar positive, continuing to oscillate along a reasonable trend line, even if long term in decline.  In that case, it's just abrupt normal apocalyptic mainstream climate change,  which is well covered already.

I've not seen it addressed yet, that's what I'm here for.  I appreciate defending this line of thinking against solid reasoning, but this isn't going to become another forum nerd fight.  This is just a place to put it all down for future reference.

It might be evident in precipitation quantities that exceed the increase expected by mean global temperature.  It might be evident in winds or relative AAM.  I don't even have access to the GSDM as the CPC product was taken down and passwords on GSDMsolutions changed *both* within the past year.

What do I do at this point?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on November 04, 2019, 12:32:31 AM
Very very heavy rain here last night. ;)
Quote
What do I do at this point?
be amazed at the information available at our fingertips :)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 06:18:26 AM
There is an ongoing scientific investigation into whether or not the hemispheres can be connected in this way.

For me, it's much more simple than that.

Isaiah 28:20

The bed is too short to stretch out on, the blanket too narrow to wrap around you.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 07:12:45 AM
In case anyone missed it, there was a GFS run that flat out ran away after hour 240...

it'll be available here for several more days until it cycles out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019110300&fh=240

As a diagnostic it is a valuable run to look at all the various attributes.  it's one to study.  we're seeing what happens when the polar front is broken completely and tropical air floods in to the Arctic from all sides.  When this happens, the polar cell is completely flung afield.

Subsequent runs have not broke so completely and we're starting to get an inkling of what it will look like.  It's bad.  It adds a 7th month to extreme polar atmospheric height anomalies.  It's a '57 or '59 or '60 on a much warmer Earth.  It's not a runaway in week 3 in the latest runs, but it is bad.

Speaking of:  here's Elwynn Taylor speaking in June of 2018... another who made the mistake of being bullish corn.  Well, ya can't help it :)

What this man saw back in the 80's is extraordinarily interesting and is observed in a chart, although I think the progression has been interrupted somewhat in our new, modern climatology.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/JFM_season_nao_index.shtml

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cP8PaUEPlzU
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 07:31:41 AM
In case anyone missed it.

This got my pulse up.  It was 2 hours before the ECMWF showed a more diffuse setup to the event beginning at hour 240

A lot of forecasters took this run seriously, which surprised me, so what you might have read in the past day about long range weather forecast could have been based on this runaway model.

Ever seen anything like it?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 04, 2019, 09:37:10 AM
So the story is that as the globe warms, winds cease/weaken, the polar cell can not be sustained, tropical air pours into the Arctic and this leads to an equable climate.

I have two problems with this:
1) We did not have an equable climate in the past few million years even when we had highert temps than today
2) There is nor real scientific explanation for an equable climate, ie. loss of AAM is not explained, see eg here:

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html

"...The main problem is that Farrell does not provide any explanation for why angular momentum sinks would have become stronger during the Cretaceous and the Eocene...This lack of information in the argument makes the theory harder to accept, and until this portion of the argument is explored in greater depth, Farrell's theory cannot be accepted as the correct explanation of equable climates."
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 09:40:05 AM
I don't always read this forum.  You're either going to be helpful  or not.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 09:44:03 AM
This is super far out but it illustrates what Sark is describing perfectly. And while it is super far out I think we will see a look like this by the middle of the month.

That normative anomaly was good.  Less energetic, more diffuse, not as simple.

That's what it looks like now for the 15th.  way more diffuse but right on time for 16 days.  October 26-28th was when the wave break & anticyclone over Greenland reached its apex.  This ain't a frozen in tropospheric polar vortex anticyclone though.  in the subsequent forecasts,  it's just wide open like Oct 4.

seeing that the model is capable of something so structurally severe was blinding.  that was some flavor of runaway.

anyway, this was a great tool at the time
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 04, 2019, 10:05:55 AM
The QBO is proceeding peacefully.

Point in favor of not runaway IMHO

We could create a runaway index.  One factor could be consecutive months being all time record warm.  Length * height of geopotential anomalies over the poles.  Number of sudden stratospheric warmings in the past 10 years.. I think we're at 8 or 9 on that front

Was there two SSW in JFM of 2014?

What else might be included?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: jdallen on November 04, 2019, 05:21:44 PM
When angular momentum is not conserved by parameterization in a weather model,...

HMMM. Another thought popped up... there's a whole kinetic energy dynamic that's in play here as well.  Slowing millions of km3 of atmosphere requires dumping of energy via friction loss as heat, and it's not inconsequential.  The delta vee between equator and pole is over 400 m/sec.  It may be lost over a distance of 10,000km but is far from inconsequential.

Similarly air moving south has an equivalent problem in reverse, but it's picking up kinetic energy off of the ocean or land surface, or translating it out of atmosphere it runs into moving at a different velocity.  It's an interesting illusion, as from the ground we perceive blasts of cold air roaring south, when in fact its us moving at a differential velocity slamming into that cold air which has much lower angular velocity.

But again, more energetic atmosphere means more displacement.  I wonder how that exchange of energy from velocity to heat is being managed in the models (or not, as the case may be) and what kind of heating potential it represents? 

It would be zero-sum over all, as energy dumped in the Arctic would be picked up by air masses being displaced south, but does represent another mechanism by which heat exchange is taking place.  In short, more breakouts over time reflect a decrease in gradient of net enthalpy, I'd imagine.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 05, 2019, 11:18:42 AM
Since the forecast for this November was so similar to reanalysis Nov '18

I tacked Nov '18 onto the end of the past 6 months

Nothing like it since at least 1948.  November is not needed for that trick.  There is a huge structural anomaly over the North Pole this year.  It is not like the other years.  Not even as bad as summers of 1959 or 1960.  The polar cell is getting shredded apart right now, not like usual.

I bicycled out of the San Juan mountains of Colorado in November of 2016, traveling South.  I remember 2016 on these same charts.  November of 2016 was astonishingly bad, but I remember thinking it's not runaway, got bored and turned away.  It was expected to be bad

May - October, not a time known for Arctic Amplification, with a 6 month polar height anomaly of A HUNDRED METERS

that's unexpected.

we are having a tremendous world-record colossal polar geopotential height centered right over the North Geomagnetic Pole, slashing right through our traditionally stable seasons

nobody can freak out because they'd lose their health insurance.  I get it.  what if next year gets better and it won't do us in until the next solar minimum?  then you'd look like a real jerk

the tropics are flooding freely into the central Arctic like never before, and basically the whole system of polar vorticity just octopuses out in response.  What was that ancient hypothesis of Open Polar Sea, the polar cell is made of islands and the North Pole is Tropical?  maybe a genetic memory of the the late Eocene?

well, that's gonna speed up the day.

whatever is stacked up to cause this is a threat and needs to be confronted IMHO

Lord Jesus, Be a Sunspot
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: macid on November 05, 2019, 12:02:09 PM
..
we are having a tremendous world-record colossal polar geopotential height centered right over the North Geomagnetic Pole, slashing right through our traditionally stable seasons
..
Can we really deduce something tremendous from a partial period anomaly map? For reference I've plotted the anomaly of the year so far and a similar subset of the past 5 years.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 05, 2019, 12:48:05 PM
Why would 2018 be included in the season May - October of 2019?  (growing season for US Ag)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: macid on November 05, 2019, 01:09:22 PM
I'm trying to show that when you take the seasonal map of a similar period, it will show the similar amounts of delta, I could run them again with same year may-oct but the point remains, I don't see anything tremendous about this years seasonal anomaly when you compare to previous years.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 05, 2019, 01:16:08 PM
I think your charts are showing a period of a year and a half.

the reason to look at the period of May - October is dual.  One, the event unfolding worldwide.  It started on May Day 2019.  That's what got this thread started. 

I'll repost some images from earlier pages if I think I can answer the question, but it doesn't help when the information is as buried as it is now.  This needs to be collated.

JJA would be a fine period.  2019 beats all there too.  But don't forget May when it all began, and be aware we're into month 7 now

you start broadening the lens from May through October and you have a 100 meter geopotential height anomaly in the Arctic over *that* period?

Those were our stable months.

Looking at month by month temperature anomalies over the past few years bears this out.  It's the Warm Arctic, Cold Continents phenomena.

It has become year round.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 05, 2019, 01:18:48 PM
I'm trying to show that when you take the seasonal map of a similar period, it will show the similar amounts of delta, I could run them again with same year may-oct but the point remains, I don't see anything tremendous about this years seasonal anomaly when you compare to previous years.

then I must be seeing something wrong

lock the time period, lock the scale, and run ever year in the archive

it's *blinding*
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 05, 2019, 01:26:45 PM
winds at 10hPa are currently forecast by GEFS on a trajectory to hit 0 somewhere near the end of November.  November 27th is the date to beat for sudden stratospheric warming, that would be the earliest recorded

I don't know which is better, if it just dies early and forms back up, maybe it could be stable.  Or it might just ping pong around the Arctic for a month like it did in 2018, elongate, and then die.  so far this has given the impression of a very dynamic and major sudden stratospheric warming.

this is the 384 forecast hour at Nov 20
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 05, 2019, 01:40:57 PM
Although I would not put a penny on any 384 hour forecast, I must say that the SSW is actually there! Although the split is not (yet?)
10hpa GFS 384 hrs. let's see how the forecast evolves in the next few days!
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: macid on November 05, 2019, 02:04:55 PM
I'm trying to show that when you take the seasonal map of a similar period, it will show the similar amounts of delta, I could run them again with same year may-oct but the point remains, I don't see anything tremendous about this years seasonal anomaly when you compare to previous years.

then I must be seeing something wrong

lock the time period, lock the scale, and run ever year in the archive

it's *blinding*

I see what you mean. Due diligence attached, locked scales to 100,-100, only necessary for the last 2 years..
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 05, 2019, 05:00:37 PM
Changes in high-altitude winds over the South Pacific produce long-term effects on the Antarctic

Quote
“The study provides the first evidence of long-term changes in the high-altitude winds of the southern westerly wind belt over the South Pacific,” explains Dr Frank Lamy. “Our findings indicate closer atmospheric ties between the tropics and mid to high latitudes than in other sectors of the Southern Hemisphere, with consequences for global overturning circulation and the storage of atmospheric CO2 in the ocean.”

The team’s findings are also important with regard to understanding current and especially future large-scale climate mechanisms in the comparatively under-researched Southern Hemisphere. One crucial aspect is the coupling of the tropical Pacific with the source of the global climate phenomenon El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the West Antarctic. The data shows that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet’s high sensitivity to ENSO in the Pacific sector, which can be seen in satellite observations made over the past few decades, is most likely also significant over much longer time scales. “A change in the high-altitude winds over the South Pacific in response to the increased frequency and intensity of El Niño events that many climate models predict would reduce the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, while also negatively impacting CO2 storage in the South Pacific,” says Lamy, putting the findings in perspective.

Link >> https://www.awi.de/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/changes-in-high-altitude-winds-over-the-south-pacific-produce-long-term-effects-on-the-antarctic.html
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 06, 2019, 07:33:25 PM
More numerous Californian wildfires, the Arctic perspective

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/more-numerous-californian-wildfires.html
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 07, 2019, 04:34:41 AM
GFS is running away after hour 240 consistently for several days now.  It's providing lots of very interesting opportunity in things like potential vorticity and jet stream dynamics *all* available on tropical tidbits press > press +++++

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2019110618&fh=6

but the ECMWF is handling it well

in GFS you can see exactly what happens Nov 14-17.  select 2 PVU pressure & wind on the GFS in NHEM view.  Or just jet stream.  You see big temperate air packets getting pulled in over the Beringian and Scandinavian blocking pattern

from both sides simultaneously :[

There still has been no purple on ECMWF near the 14th-17th.  it's just as bad as GFS frankly but it doesn't achieve the shots colliding in center violently thing

I would expect it to continue to act just as awfully in 2020 if not worse, but we're learning all new ways that it *can* look also

this blob is showing us how bad that frozen in anticyclone jet was over Greenland on October 26.

ridges in the jet stream bending up so high on the planet that they reach the North Pole.  but the polar front keeps this from happening and is the reason for freezing temperatures, that and all the ice conspire to create a polar front

but the polar front is breaking at least every 16 days going on 7 and a half months now.  It's due on the 15th if not the 14th, and that's when it should be peaking

in the GFS these temperate air packets shoot in violently and collide in the middle, which goes bright purple on the 500mb anomaly,  less like a splashing rossby wave and more like a dynamic dual/tri/wobble poling of the whole polar cell ... the whole "thing" ripping in half.

that's why it doesn't make much sense for the wave breaks to strike exactly there simultaneously with the MJO in wave 7 or wherever it is.  it's more like the Fujiwhara effect between two hurricanes.  its not quite a Rossby wave break, it's just stringers in the tropospheric polar vortex.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 07, 2019, 06:40:05 AM
The 00Z is coming in and will be one of the more moderate members of the AO ensemble, which I will be checking in morning

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif

I'm been getting sick of looking at 2 polar cells and proving that our May-October period was the worst footing our polar vortex system has ever endured

https://imgur.com/a/rgvIwTv

you all know what happens next right
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 07, 2019, 08:04:35 AM
"you all know what happens next right"

I do not

What happens next?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 07, 2019, 08:25:52 AM
"you all know what happens next right"

I do not

What happens next?

it splashes back together again in the middle
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 07, 2019, 11:01:25 AM
This belongs here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/polar-vortex-under-attack-stratospheric-warming-possible-fa/
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 07, 2019, 03:13:21 PM
Expect to see all manner of negative Arctic Oscillation on the GFS today.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 09, 2019, 03:38:34 AM
there's been a real nice oscillation going on this thing all year long ... but ... if this wave is normal howcome there's no word for it when I ask?

folks, I'm sorry about these gifs :>
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 09, 2019, 07:52:10 AM
I'm so lost, Sark.  Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the GIF showing?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: macid on November 09, 2019, 01:00:47 PM
One rotation represents ~5 days, one phase of the MJO? When you follow individuals lows you see them elastically bound to the circle and the square acts as a shield, with edges popping lows down south.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 09, 2019, 01:16:00 PM
Oh, i see it now! Thanks so much, Macid! :)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 09, 2019, 03:48:58 PM
One rotation represents ~5 days, one phase of the MJO? When you follow individuals lows you see them elastically bound to the circle and the square acts as a shield, with edges popping lows down south.

even if you are right, what does it all mean? what is its significance, relevance to "atomspheric connection, structure and long range weather forecasting"?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 09, 2019, 04:50:41 PM
I'm so lost, Sark.  Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the GIF showing?

Looks cool though.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 09, 2019, 05:03:06 PM
Yeah, mesmerizing! :)
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 09, 2019, 05:19:43 PM
GFS runs have all slammed into alignment suddenly.  GFS accuracy at 7 days is trending pessimistic

The polar cell is wobbling, gyrating, as well as splitting up?  As a vortex this thing is "roping out" and forming stringers.  that's my view
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 09, 2019, 06:00:27 PM
I'm so lost, Sark.  Sorry for my ignorance, but what is the GIF showing?

That gif is a 500 mb anomaly from Tropical Tidbits for a mid-August GFS run with an overlaid gif of mechanical precession.

I put it together because it is always possible to see, sometimes quite obvious to see, a retrograde wave of high pressure against the Rossby waves.  The timing seems to be somewhere around 8 days.

Bear in mind this is in forecast and an analysis of operational hour 0's would be more fruitful.  I'm probably working on stringing those together next, to create a chart gif consisting of only historical data as modeled in these weather models with no forecast data, spanning over a month's time, for example.

I'm tending toward this concept that the heat incursions, atmospheric height anomalies, and flow characteristics over the Arctic are less Rossby waves and more "mechanical".  Thought experiment: If the troposopheric polar vortex starts fragmenting, that's bigger than Rossby wave breaks.  In fact, the cycle of fragmentation and slamming back together in the tropospheric polar vortex would guide Rossby wave patterns, as opposed to Rossby wave peaks breaking in the Arctic causing the same thing.

Because dual-and-simultaneous ridges from both sides of the planet meeting at the North Pole doesn't look like Rossby waves to me.  It looks like the polar cell ripping into fragments, mainly two, causing two ridges to be pulled into the Arctic in the void left behind

These aren't wave breaks, it's just empty space where there used to be a polar cell.

The interaction between the packets of "polar cell" is becoming more like the Fujiwhara effect
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: uniquorn on November 09, 2019, 06:36:39 PM
<> an analysis of operational hour 0's would be more fruitful.  I'm probably working on stringing those together next, to create a chart gif consisting of only historical data as modeled in these weather models with no forecast data, spanning over a month's time, for example.<>
Great idea.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 09, 2019, 08:28:47 PM
Global winds reaching close to baseline here.

I'd have to refer you to this for more, since I can't see how to explain it quite yet

https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3293.1
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on November 09, 2019, 09:41:34 PM
I have a notion that may be insane but I think it belongs in here with sark's ideas.

Is it possible that, with the collapse of the tropospheric polar cell, that the stratosphere could actually reach the surface in places?

Per Wikipedia, the stratosphere drops as low as 20K feet around the poles and northern latitudes.

IF the tropospheric PV collapses / fragments, why couldn't it be possible that the stratosphere descends to 10K feet (or lower) on occasion in parts of the NHEM? This would result in "holes" in the troposphere where the stratosphere is connected directly to the surface. Perhaps this is part of what SSWs are -- or where they are heading, rather.

This would be quite possible in regions like the northernmost Rockies (the triangle of coldness and further north), as well as the high mountain ranges of Eurasia.

I don't know if I am explaining this well, but I think it would explain why we saw such a sudden drop in Greenland's temperature at the onset of Younger Dryas etc as well. If the polar cell collapses and we have remnant tropospheric PVs, why couldn't it be possible that chunks of the highest elevations then become connected to the stratosphere from time to time during winter -- or even more frequently in other parts of the year?

I have illustrated this below in a series of very poorly produced diagrams. The dark blue lines on the geographic map indicate the areas that could be most prone to stratospheric-surface coupling in instance of complete collapse of the trop polar cell, and the light blue areas would also be prone to impacts due to positioning in between the highly elevated "anchors" for surface-strat-coupling.

Please tell me whether this is insane or if it makes sense -- I suppose I am positing a system where the tropopause is no longer as dominant at the surface at current in future, and where it gives way to stratospheric "intrusions" or holes (massive vortexes) that connect directly with the surface.

This is quite possible IMO because as heights increase and equalize across the North Pole as the sea ice fails completely, there is going to be impetus for massively low heights across the snowbound portions of the highest elevations of the continents (the -500MB anomalies we are now seeing in Siberia and Canada). As the heights keep rising over the Pole, they will keep falling over the highest elevations in these regions. And thus, as tropospheric heights over the Pole equalize with those in mid-latitudes and the tropics to some extent, this results in massive holes ripping open the troposphere atop the highest mountains in the high latitudes, and the stratosphere couples with the surface, producing extreme cold that matches what we see in Greenland's ice records.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: blumenkraft on November 10, 2019, 10:40:53 AM
<> an analysis of operational hour 0's would be more fruitful.  I'm probably working on stringing those together next, to create a chart gif consisting of only historical data as modeled in these weather models with no forecast data, spanning over a month's time, for example.<>
Great idea.

+1

Thanks for the explanation, Sark.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: El Cid on November 10, 2019, 11:23:14 AM
Global winds reaching close to baseline here.


So is the doomsday scenario off?
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: dbarce on November 10, 2019, 12:09:31 PM
Out of curiosity I checked other wind related data at Climate Reanalyzer and found this 10m windspeed anomaly graph. I am not a climate scientist, so I dont understand the relation of Angular Momentum in wind to this. It does seem to show an increase in surface windspeeds over the last decades right?

Edit: Assuming Mr in Sark's graph does stand for mean angular momentum.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 10, 2019, 10:12:18 PM
...
Is it possible that, with the collapse of the tropospheric polar cell, that the stratosphere could actually reach the surface in places?

Per Wikipedia, the stratosphere drops as low as 20K feet around the poles and northern latitudes.
...
Mt. Everest (aka Sagarmatha or Chomolungma in more local languages - I saw it in person in 1980, standing on a bump on the side of a nearby mountain [at ~5,600 m] overlooking 'base camp') is 8.8 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than half there.  Denali (in Alaska) is almost 6.2 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than 2/3rds there.

But what might happen with climate chaos, I haven't a clue.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: kassy on November 10, 2019, 11:16:35 PM
Quote
Going upward from the surface, it is the point where air ceases to cool with height, and becomes almost completely dry. More formally, the tropopause is the region of the atmosphere where the environmental lapse rate changes from positive, as it behaves in the troposphere, to the stratospheric negative one. Following is the exact definition used by the World Meteorological Organization:

The boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere, where an abrupt change in lapse rate usually occurs. It is defined as the lowest level at which the lapse rate decreases to 2 °C/km or less, provided that the average lapse rate between this level and all higher levels within 2 km does not exceed 2 °C/km.[1]

Above is the definition of the tropopause.
Below it lapse rate is 6,5 C/ km

Now these high regions could be very cold but they still get weather from elsewhere so my hunch is that it is not possible.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: bbr2314 on November 11, 2019, 02:56:39 AM
...
Is it possible that, with the collapse of the tropospheric polar cell, that the stratosphere could actually reach the surface in places?

Per Wikipedia, the stratosphere drops as low as 20K feet around the poles and northern latitudes.
...
Mt. Everest (aka Sagarmatha or Chomolungma in more local languages - I saw it in person in 1980, standing on a bump on the side of a nearby mountain [at ~5,600 m] overlooking 'base camp') is 8.8 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than half there.  Denali (in Alaska) is almost 6.2 km tall, so the troposphere would have to thin more than 2/3rds there.

But what might happen with climate chaos, I haven't a clue.

Not to nitpick but this is incorrect -- at Denali the tropopause is at 8KM (on occasion), so at 6.2KM, it only needs to drop ~20% to reach the peak.
Title: Re: Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting
Post by: sark on November 13, 2019, 09:22:56 AM
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

UK Met Office seasonal prediction done by a dynamic numerical model ensemble, pictured below is Sea Level Pressure for Nov/Dec/Jan

You wouldn't know it by looking at the product's other maps except maybe the 500mb anomaly.  Temps are high in the Arctic but not over Antarctica, not even at 850mb.  This does predict a deep hole of -60 meters GPH over Greenland/Iceland... but when, and how?

This would be a very positive NAO forecast, +NAM, and negative Southern Annular Mode.  If the sudden & dynamic final warming of the Southern Hemisphere's winter PV hits the Antarctic like it did the Arctic this year, wow.

CFSv2 is on this pattern also in December

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=cfs-mon&region=nhem&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2019111206&fh=0

but the temps are warm.

Why the low sea level pressure?  Storms?