Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 07:36:14 PM

Title: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 07:36:14 PM
Functionally, when will it (first) be possible to sail a non-icebreaker all along the Alaskan (northern) coast (not counting fast ice) this year?
No changing of votes, and to be a 'winner' (at the expense of Arctic ice) with Option 1 [< June 1], you have to have posted your guess prediction before it [ice lifting off coast] actually happens.  I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice.  (If he doesn't post it in this thread, we'll figure out his opinion from his postings elsewhere.)

For those interested in what happened in the Beaufort, back in 2016 (so as to compare to this year's situation), I wrote about it extensively on the ASIB. Here's a blog post (https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/05/beaufort-final-update.html) from May 21st, with links to previous blog posts in the first paragraph.

One thing I wondered about back then, and do again now:

Quote
The other thing is that there is actually not that much ice left between the large polynya (expanse of open water) in the Beaufort Sea and the smaller one in the Chukchi Sea:

(https://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f03a1e37970b01b7c86055f6970b-800wi)

Once this ice is gone, there will be open water all along the American coast of the Arctic Ocean. My guess is this could happen within two weeks or maybe even faster, which would be extremely early, given that the earliest time this has happened in the past decade (and probably much, much beyond that), was between July 1st and 7th in both 2009 and 2011.

My guess turned out to be wrong. It also took until the first week of July for open water to take over all along the Alaskan-Canadian coast.

But how about this year? Here's a comparison:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/DJEOgapTuogXVZLhsLRDJxCu2HKUCNVcNTMgfGFJofn7sEo950o69-pu91uuSDcwphvPAfbgUMIGSSm91_-Em1gkluCBZeOCwcqEfSfUBuIitAS6xBRkiUwXDjFjf3LdR4xY4QwFwoz0HsGYhlgIPFHgYnexidKJALfHKIEt3XXbSpgnvcWZm4QBdi9vDIngAyFso4fN6YMtnVxqQe29vfHY_9zsJgatphLvFQquAdm9urd4td3qaVNqCGdayruXC-Xmm2qIxiNrAPnXBdol9tMXKi3A9UHa9-CmTEsb48b2XJPBgRR1Y4AOu6G7S5-vOap2Rp6e09ooFQoXaeNIZZ8g2BsdLWpl4NOJoSiDMaJSFp2M_jbn9JAZ98T2qg-OAlcYctt4TYuPDCOHdcfRXO1VYwfVl0E-IGJ87D0-YNqeHNTF6NC6nLcceoq3JzqZ2Z2dxR2KxCmBDFQE0_Ue_XetjdoRhub32apMby-KfFD5EcnDBMAptoZBMq0UBpTznTv_zEVS9RS_mMVZ-El_KcT8miDQLMDi_-NFNteE8hSiYux_mdPzoQ8CnUzPILG6CM3vhgMAfap0KdyfN4FW83SPZScfzT3pB8XwJy9dXs5Zj5V7gWeZU1guk0oUvaW0V6YbPtW538ztkFS7PfokOSp44NXEVw4qdGzZkPrxaNjbdt1uo1L0JgYFhGYmZewJaTf1UMRTEBoSqHBkDbhozCQk=w500-h410-no)

The maps look very similar, so much so that one would be tempted to think there is something causing the ice to stay glued to the coast, all the way up to Utqiaġvik. But there's no "Chukchi polynya" now, with open water all the way to the Pacific and far into the Chukchi, meaning there is less ice to be blown back towards the coast, should the winds turn.

And the winds are another similarity. Both the weather forecast back then and the one this year show a change in the set-up that caused the early Beaufort opening, around the same time. However, this year there may be a return to that set-up next week.

So, wondering if there will be open water all along the Alaskan-Canadian coast before July this year...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 07:48:48 PM
Cross post that got me to create this poll:
The fast ice at Barrow doesn't appear as resilent as in 2016.

it will be gone very soon, one morning we wake up and it will be no more, i predict within days, rather than weeks.

my guess: 3-6 days from now but that's a guess based on the images of the webcam, one can't see the exact thickness.

I might be inclined the agree with your you. Given that there is something stubborn about that patch, I'm going to guess 1-2 weeks.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on May 23, 2019, 07:49:56 PM
June 8-17
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on May 23, 2019, 08:01:33 PM
June 1-7.

I think it will be possible to sail a non-breaker Friday from CAA to the Laptev by end of June.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on May 23, 2019, 08:05:36 PM
Cross post that got me to create this poll:
The fast ice at Barrow doesn't appear as resilent as in 2016.

it will be gone very soon, one morning we wake up and it will be no more, i predict within days, rather than weeks.

my guess: 3-6 days from now but that's a guess based on the images of the webcam, one can't see the exact thickness.

I might be inclined the agree with your you. Given that there is something stubborn about that patch, I'm going to guess 1-2 weeks.

i voted 1-7th of june in this thread while i predicted a few days for the fast ice at barrows.
to make sure there is no misunderstanding, the post that made you open this thread does not refer to the same part of the cost like the one you quoted. not saying you're not aware but wanna make sure that.

we were talking about below linked and illustrated stretch of coast:

https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam/

it's a bit foggy (intermittently heavy) so just come back if the image you look at is not of
satisfactory quality ;) i expect sunbeams breaking through later today once temps get beyond dewpoint. Expected high is around 6C
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 08:18:07 PM
Thanks for the clarification, Magnamentis.  Not a problem!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 23, 2019, 08:44:37 PM
Here's the current National Weather Service sea ice map for Alaskan waters (https://www.weather.gov/afc/ice), plus their current forecast:

Quote
FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (Days 1 through 5)...

Winds generally be light and variable through Monday. The ice pack will likely drift
southward 15 to 25 nm through Monday while continuing to melt/decay.

...BREAK-UP OUTLOOK FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA...

Looking at the big picture for the Beaufort Sea break-up, sea ice
has begun to melt from the Mackenzie River Delta westward into
Alaska waters. Break-up will continue from the east and to a lesser
extent from the west, with ice beyond the shorefast ice likely
melting before the shorefast ice break off and melts. As stated at
the beginning of the sea ice outlook, multi-year sea ice currently
north of approximately 72N may drift southward into navigational
waters through August.

From Point Barrow to Demarcation Point, sea ice is expected to no
longer be shorefast by the first week of July. There is some multi-
year ice on the northern edge of the shorefast ice, mainly noted
between Point Barrow and Cape Halkett. This ice will likely take
longer to break away and melt.

Beyond the shorefast ice from Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point to
72N, sea ice is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration during the
first half of August.

Beyond the shorefast ice from Pt. Barrow to Cape Halkett to 72N sea
ice is expected to reach 3 tenths concentration for the season
during the first half of August. It is possible that this area will
become sea ice free for the season by the end of August, however
this is highly dependent on local weather patterns and how fast the
multi-year ice in this area melts.

Does anybody want to change their mind?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Stephan on May 23, 2019, 09:07:19 PM
I guess last week of June...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on May 23, 2019, 09:07:45 PM
Temperatures above freezing + some sunshine.
Prudhoe Bay forecast attached.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on May 23, 2019, 09:19:41 PM
after a few days a strong easterly may develop .. if it is from south of east .. then the end of May is not impossible unfortunately .. ( not talking @ our prime minister who is determined to limp into June :) ) b.c.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on May 23, 2019, 09:42:44 PM
My finger itched to vote for June 1-7, but I'll go for 8-17.

Quote
I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice.

I'm happy to be convinced, but the argument has to be based on Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps, as can be found on the ASIG (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/_/rsrc/1457432386590/concentration-maps/sic0525/20120525.png?height=400&width=261).
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Comradez on May 23, 2019, 11:07:39 PM
After looking at the worldview imagery of this region in June and July of 2012 and 2016, I've noticed some patterns:
1.  This ice never gets pushed north away from the coast by wind or currents.  The ice on either side of it does, in the Beaufort and Chukchi proper, but right it this area on the border between the two seas it just doesn't.  In fact, if anything this ice has a tendency to be pushed into the coast and replenished from the north, east, and west.  Something most be going on with ocean currents and subsea topography there.  Which brings me to...
2.  Hanna Shoal.  If you look at the region on July 22nd and July 23rd of 2012 and rock the image back and forth, it is obvious that one icefield located right near Hanna Shoal does not move along with the rest of the pack...and in fact, it never moves the entire season!  It eventually melts out in September, so I doubt it was an iceberg.  The ocean must be exceptionally shallow at that spot to ground a <2 meter icefield.  This topography could be protecting the ice in the area. 

Long story short, the Chukchi could get torched all the way to Wrangel Island, and the Beaufort ice pushed halfway across the Central Arctic Basin, and yet I think there will still be ice in this border region between the two seas well into July because that ice basically has no choice but to melt in-situ, with how the currents in the area seem to work.  That said, I voted June 8-17 because this year the entire arctic icepack is mobile enough to make room for the surrounding ice to sail northward like never before, and there is less ice than ever in the Chukchi with which to replenish this area, which means we would just need the southerly transpolar winds to continue to be predominant another couple of weeks to produce something unprecedented. 
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 23, 2019, 11:20:39 PM
...
Quote
I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice.
I'm happy to be convinced, but the argument has to be based on Uni Bremen sea ice concentration maps, as can be found on the ASIG (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/_/rsrc/1457432386590/concentration-maps/sic0525/20120525.png?height=400&width=261).
Good enough for me!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on May 23, 2019, 11:46:17 PM
It"s not a big deal but just to be clear. My interpretation of the prediction is when will someone be able to sail ice free from Beaufort to Bering....not the complete melt of every ice chunk sticking to the coastline.
.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on May 24, 2019, 12:23:49 AM
Yes, there needs to be continuous blue. Unfortunately, it seems that Uni Bremen SIC maps may not have good enough resolution.

Here's a map from July 7th 2016. I would say it doesn't qualify, but just barely (difficult to make out):
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 24, 2019, 12:40:04 AM
... My interpretation of the prediction is when will someone be able to sail ice free from Beaufort to Bering....not the complete melt of every ice chunk sticking to the coastline.
This matches my expectation of Neven's discernment.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 24, 2019, 12:50:44 AM
They say that the Pacific sector is on record.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1131580473417666560

Quote
Extent of #seaice in the seas around Alaska for May 22nd (@NSIDC data) is lowest of record at 1.61 million km², only 79% of 1981-2010 mean for the date. Bering Sea is 2nd lowest, Chukchi 1st lowest, Beaufort 3rd lowest.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7QsXFjV4AEhzX7.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 24, 2019, 01:24:37 AM
Yes, there needs to be continuous blue. Unfortunately, it seems that Uni Bremen SIC maps may not have good enough resolution.

You don't much care for the official NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program maps then?

IIRC the official criteria for an "open" Northwest Passage is <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route on the Canadian Ice Service maps, which have much better resolution than Bremen SIC! A current close up of the Beaufort choke point.

P.S. Added the Bremen AMSR2 equivalent:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: binntho on May 24, 2019, 08:18:35 AM
I wonder, after seeing Aluminiums latest gif (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg200820.html#msg200820) and also Oren's excellent combination (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg200510.html#msg200510) of same, whether we are seeing here a very-large-scale slime effect? Or soap bubble effect or whatever you want to call a sticky fluid that just doesn't want to let go of a fixed surface.

Perhaps not so farfetched - it is a well known maritime effect that two ships (or other floating hard bodies) will tend to drift towards each other, the same must apply to ice floes, between individual floes and between them and land.

So a certain amount of "stickiness" is to be expected from floating ice ...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on May 24, 2019, 09:43:36 AM
Yes, there needs to be continuous blue. Unfortunately, it seems that Uni Bremen SIC maps may not have good enough resolution.

You don't much care for the official NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program maps then?

IIRC the official criteria for an "open" Northwest Passage is <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route on the Canadian Ice Service maps, which have much better resolution than Bremen SIC! A current close up of the Beaufort choke point.

P.S. Added the Bremen AMSR2 equivalent:

Yes, those resolutions are much better. So, contiguous blue on the UH AMSR2 map and/or the CIS definition.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: johnm33 on May 24, 2019, 09:52:30 AM
I think what's happening here is that Amundsen tides are pushing the Gyre along the coast, carrying Mackenzie river water before it. The most energetic fraction of Pacific waters are moving north tight against the Alaskan coast, where they meet there's constant turbulence causing bottom melt, inverse ponding, and to some extent cancelling each others inertia. Both currents then move north carrying the meltwater with them, which incidentally causes rapid repair of any cracks in the ice.
I've gone for the 5th June, but don't really have a clue.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: iceman on May 26, 2019, 04:00:30 PM
Lacking strong conviction (earlier vs. later arguments seem about equally balanced) yet voting anyway - late June -  because this is one of the most noteworthy features of the early melting season.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ajouis on May 26, 2019, 07:22:56 PM
The melting is more advanced than previous years and with stronger forces moving the ice in the area, with predictions that it will continue, however there is still some older ice there, which is stronger and more difficult to melt, and it seems that this arm can only distort so much before the forces responsible for this cancel each other, so mid june is the most likely.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: CameraMan on May 26, 2019, 08:24:57 PM
Going for the mid-June basket.   I think the fast ice will last a week or more, but not 3+   
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Sterks on May 28, 2019, 09:27:55 AM
Watching the persistent isobars predicted by ECMWF today, I have voted June 1-7
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on May 29, 2019, 12:49:05 PM
Getting closer
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 29, 2019, 12:53:11 PM
Getting closer

No cigar yet though!

BTW, it seems that I've previously neglected to mention that I voted for June 8-17. Currently in second place on the leaderboard.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 29, 2019, 06:57:41 PM
Cross post:
… Beaufort joining the Chucki sea shortly with open water according to nrlssc.navy forecast.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

June 4th-ish?  (Not what I voted...)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: jdallen on May 29, 2019, 07:12:13 PM
Cross post:
… Beaufort joining the Chucki sea shortly with open water according to nrlssc.navy forecast.

https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

June 4th-ish?  (Not what I voted...)
Not to mention it suggests part of the multi year "arm" will be obliterated along the way.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on May 29, 2019, 07:59:00 PM
 .. the Slater forecast somwhere on the forum the other day still had the ice firmly attached to Alaska on the 14th July . Even though it forecast a record low for the ice on that date this was one of the reasons I suspect it may be over optimistic. 
  .. I have forgotten how I voted .. will I be able to check after the event ? :) .. b.c.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 29, 2019, 08:42:09 PM
BC,
scroll to the top of this thread's page.  Your vote will be highlighted in the graph of 'current results'.  If you haven't voted, you'll see the voting options.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: petm on May 29, 2019, 11:48:41 PM
Yes, there needs to be continuous blue. Unfortunately, it seems that Uni Bremen SIC maps may not have good enough resolution.

You don't much care for the official NWS Alaska Sea Ice Program maps then?

Yes, those resolutions are much better. So, contiguous blue on the UH AMSR2 map and/or the CIS definition.

You can also get much better resolution from the Bremen regional maps, e.g. see attached for 2016-July 7th and 8th (click to zoom in). Looks like it may have been passable on the 8th but not the 7th. But 2016 looks like it was touch and go (open one day, closed another) until early August.

Here's a link for today's Chukchi-Beaufort regional. Just choose the day you want and then click the small map to open a full sized map in a new tab:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#day=28&month=4&year=2019&img={"image":"image-1","sensor":"AMSR","type":"nic","region":"ChukchiBeaufort"} (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#day=28&month=4&year=2019&img={"image":"image-1","sensor":"AMSR","type":"nic","region":"ChukchiBeaufort"})

Today's map (May 28) shows the beginning of the same rupture clearly shown on JayW's animation above. Shouldn't be long now unless the weather shifts...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on May 30, 2019, 11:14:01 AM
Here's a link for today's Chukchi-Beaufort regional. Just choose the day you want and then click the small map to open a full sized map in a new tab:

*snip*

Shouldn't be long now unless the weather shifts...

Thanks for that! Looks like it could be soon, indeed:

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/may/ChukchiBeaufort/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190529-v5.4_nic.png (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/may/ChukchiBeaufort/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190529-v5.4_nic.png)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on May 30, 2019, 11:36:38 AM
 10 day sea ice forecast from the ECMWF

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-slope/ice-ocean-lake/20190609-0000z.html
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 30, 2019, 01:30:53 PM
You can also get much better resolution from the Bremen regional maps

And if you download the NetCDF version you can use e.g. Panoply to zoom in as much as you want. See my image above.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 30, 2019, 05:21:37 PM
about 2 hours of voting opportunity left...  (about 7 people voted during the last day)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 30, 2019, 06:49:18 PM
about 2 hours of voting opportunity left...  (about 7 people voted during the last day)

And the lead has changed as a result :)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on May 30, 2019, 07:48:21 PM
 most recent VIIRS image.

Edit: I am in the June 1-7 camp.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: jdallen on May 30, 2019, 07:57:28 PM
It will be close, I suspect.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 30, 2019, 08:47:24 PM
There were 4 votes in the last 2 hours, but the horse race for category with the most votes didn't change.

Attached is an enlargement of Jay's image with crudely drawn lines added to trace North Alaska (green) and open water (blue) for those who cannot see the ice (or land or water) through the clouds …

Other ways of dicing the horse race statistics:
Period                        Votes/Day   DaysCovered/Vote
May (from poll open)     0.6                1.6              [nice to see the 'golden ratio'  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_ratio)show up]
June 1-7                       2.9                0.3
June 8-17                     2.5                0.4
June 18-30                   0.6                1.6
July                              0.2                6.2

… and nobody complained there wasn't a "Aug-Sep 2019" or "2020" or "It'll never open again!" option!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on May 31, 2019, 03:25:55 AM
12 hour loop.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: jdallen on May 31, 2019, 03:39:05 AM
12 hour loop.
Dang.  I'm gonna lose.  The pack is going to separate from the fast ice and open up a gap.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on May 31, 2019, 03:49:58 AM
12 hour loop.

15-20 knot tail winds pushing relatively warm water there.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: miki on May 31, 2019, 05:51:40 AM
That looks like a sweet but short lived kiss...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 01, 2019, 06:59:51 AM
Dang.  I'm gonna lose.  The pack is going to separate from the fast ice and open up a gap.

Don't give up all hope just yet JD:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: dingojoe on June 01, 2019, 08:00:55 AM
The forecast seems really locked in for the next 5 days for a steady strong easterly wind, so the bulk of the pack very well could make it past the Point by June 7th.  Unfortunately, without a southerly wind, I think it'll still have a narrow "comet's" tail trailing back along the fast ice and in fact the tail may be some of that ice unfastening.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 01, 2019, 09:20:52 AM
12 hour loop.
Dang.  I'm gonna lose.  The pack is going to separate from the fast ice and open up a gap.

I think there is a sense that we're all losing. If I'm right and the ocean opens by the 7th, I'm definitely not going to be happy about it.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 01, 2019, 09:28:34 AM
14 hour loop, ending on June 1, 01 UTC
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 01, 2019, 10:12:57 AM
14 hour loop, ending on June 1, 01 UTC

Wow....it's already disconnected. The ocean floes are freely sliding by the fixed coastal ice.

This poll will be ending before long.

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 01, 2019, 07:34:13 PM
At this rate, the 'dam' could be gone in about 3 days.  The rate won't stay constant, but early June sure looks possible, given the H over the Arctic is forecast to stay put for a while.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 01, 2019, 08:57:25 PM
doesn't look like a lot of changes and looking at waves hammering the dam chances are intact that we shall see a significant channel till the 7th

further the current conditions seem to remain quite "stable" for the next few days in all parameters like wind, waves and temps.

as you can see i changed my favourite weather provider for that region after the epic fail with barrow temps recently.

:D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: sark on June 02, 2019, 05:50:25 AM
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 02, 2019, 06:01:23 AM
Getting closer, according to Bremen AMSR2 June 1st, 2019.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 02, 2019, 06:29:58 AM
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)

I don't see a stall. Quite the contrary. A slight shift of wind direction today brought the floating ocean ice closer to the coast today.

The fixed connection between the coastal ice and the ocean interior is lost. The strong tail winds are forecast to remain in place for the next week and the SST's are above average. The entire pack is being pushed, sliding and scraping along the coast.

The wind is going to push the entire pack past Utqiagvik.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 02, 2019, 06:33:19 AM
I voted Juli because i thought the rotation might cause the pack to expand here. Looks like to be the wrong assumption.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 02, 2019, 06:37:00 AM
I voted Juli because i thought the rotation might cause the pack to expand here. Looks like to be the wrong assumption.
I voted June 8-17 and seems that it is going to happen sooner.
The ice is being moved to hot waters (see the gerontocrat post).

SST Anomalies @ 31 May from http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Really hot in the North Pacific.

Also some warmth way up north in Baffin Bay. Air temps have also been predominantly warmer than average  up there for some time.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 02, 2019, 06:39:35 AM
At least there is no money in the pot we lose Juan. ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 02, 2019, 09:15:32 AM
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
Worldview images from consecutive days can be as little as 51 minutes apart or a much as 47.5 hours apart, it depends on which orbital swath the image was taken from.

If you look at it with sub daily imagery, it marches along unabated.
13.5 hour loop

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 02, 2019, 09:56:30 AM
yup.  kinda stalled out there (animates on click)
Worldview images from consecutive days can be a little as 51 minutes apart or a much as 47.5 hours apart, it depends on which orbital swath the image was taken from.

If you look at it with sub daily imagery, it marches along unabated.
13.5 hour loop

Excellent gif. Thanks Jay.

The wind direction still has a role to play here. It it blows the last extension of the sea pack into the shore, there will be some more friction and twisting that could add a few days to the date of the opening.

I'll be looking at the angle of approach in the coming day or so.

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 03, 2019, 04:09:48 AM
In this weather, unsurprisingly, we have Alaska’s earliest freeing of ice.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7_5S7-V4AEVx0e.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D7_JxRzVsAUwmco.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8EG0ZPXkAEvJrK.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 03, 2019, 06:02:47 AM
The width of the ice barrier was reduced to 50 km.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 05, 2019, 03:22:13 AM
10 hour loop
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 05, 2019, 03:44:32 AM
In Kotzebue, this spring was warmer than past records for .... 3 DEGREES !!!

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8OeeAKU8AAERLG.jpg)

The Pacific sector continues to collapse.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8JS46wUEAEFlZT.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 05, 2019, 07:27:43 AM
A tenuous connection...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 05, 2019, 09:08:15 AM
Looking at JayW's animation, it shouldn't take long now. But I won't mind if the ice can hold out three more days.  ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 05, 2019, 09:52:30 AM
The winds have shifted again. Yesterday they were blowing more inland and now GFS has them blowing parallel to the coast. Still in the 15-20 knot range.

It's a cliffhanger.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: johnm33 on June 05, 2019, 10:45:09 AM
three more days? anything but today is a fail for me
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: RikW on June 05, 2019, 11:23:47 AM
If I voted today I'd still vote for 1-7 I think;

I guess it will be the 7th or the 8th it will be 'free'
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Sterks on June 05, 2019, 12:34:26 PM
The winds have shifted again. Yesterday they were blowing more inland and now GFS has them blowing parallel to the coast. Still in the 15-20 knot range.

It's a cliffhanger.
Yes and the ice drifts to the right. We may see a detachment before the 7
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 05, 2019, 03:40:06 PM
Looking at JayW's animation, it shouldn't take long now. But I won't mind if the ice can hold out three more days.  ;)
… I'll let Neven be the impartial determiner of when the Alaskan coast area is deemed clear enough of ice. …
It never crossed my mind (until now) that Neven can just declare that June 8 will be the first day a boat can sail where there is currently an ice dam.  Heck, why wait for evidence with such power!  :o ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 05, 2019, 03:56:34 PM
It never crossed my mind (until now) that Neven can just declare that June 8 will be the first day a boat can sail where there is currently an ice dam.

Rest assured that "Snow White" will hold Neven to account if he ignores the incontrovertible evidence!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 05, 2019, 04:07:32 PM
So, you didn't vote the way Neven did, I see.  (And Neven, by chance, voted the way I did, so you can guess where my loyalties lie [for the moment].) 

Isn't it incontrovertibly true that I'm - whoever is the "I" speaking - that I'm right?  ::) :P
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 05, 2019, 06:03:41 PM
10 hour loop



two and a half days to go depending on time zone. tight race to the next mark on the 7th of June ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 06, 2019, 06:29:56 AM
"...depending on time zone."
That can make an interesting debate of who won!  ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 06, 2019, 09:35:03 AM
From the archival images it follows that the passage first opened in early July 2009. 2019 is ahead of the past year, at least 3 weeks.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 06, 2019, 10:24:44 AM
Still not quite there yet:

(https://wvs.earthdata.nasa.gov/api/v1/snapshot?REQUEST=GetSnapshot&TIME=2019-06-06&BBOX=-1998848,605696,-1785856,808960&CRS=EPSG:3413&LAYERS=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&FORMAT=image/jpeg&WIDTH=416&HEIGHT=397&ts=1559809319285)

If the fast ice to the east of Utqiagvik disintegrates, it may even take a bit longer. And the forecast is slowly changing...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 06, 2019, 09:05:40 PM
The RAMMB SLIDER is working again. \o/

The latest frame is 06.06. 13:04h UTC.

Might be it's already detached by now.

(Click to play)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 06, 2019, 11:00:04 PM
very little left as it seems ;) curiously looking forwart to the next day
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 07, 2019, 12:45:25 AM
Can we call it?

If not yet, should be the next image.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: petm on June 07, 2019, 01:53:55 AM
I'd say still a km or two to go... yes maybe the next image.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 07, 2019, 04:23:21 AM
Oof!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 07, 2019, 05:31:49 AM
The pack ice has left the coast. I'm wondering if the space between the pack ice and the coast is a shallow shelf.



Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 07, 2019, 05:50:37 AM
Captain Cook is very sad. Two centuries ago, even on the most perfect ship of his time, he could not reach Barrow even in August.

https://infowebbie.com/scienceupdate/captain-cooks-detailed-1778-records-confirm-global-warming-today-arctic/

(https://beta.adn.com/resizer/pIDcjD5puHlP9m8TDQBNW9I3UJ0=/600x0/s3.amazonaws.com/arc-wordpress-client-uploads/arctic/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/17152300/20161117_COOK-1.jpg?token=bar)

Quote
Passengers simmered in Jacuzzis and feasted on gourmet cuisine this summer as the 850-foot cruise ship Crystal Serenity moved through the Northwest Passage. But in the summer of 1778, when Capt. James Cook tried to find a Western entrance to the route, his men toiled on frost-slicked decks and complained about having to supplement dwindling rations with walrus meat. The British expedition was halted north of the Bering Strait by “ice which was as compact as a wall and seemed to be 10 or 12 feet high at least,” according to the captain’s journal. Cook’s ships followed the ice edge all the way to Siberia in their futile search for an opening, sometimes guided through fog by the braying of the unpalatable creatures the crew called Sea Horses.

Floating ice with a height of 12 feet means multi-year ice with a total thickness of 30 meters (Archimedes' law into action).
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 07:51:53 AM
The latest picture was taken 00:56h UTC. The satellite will not orbit the area for a few hours after that.

This is exciting!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: binntho on June 07, 2019, 07:57:08 AM
Worldview this morning - seems to be almost there, but the lump of ice that seems to be landfast is in fact just a load of rubble and the first puff of off-shore wind will blow it out to sea.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: binntho on June 07, 2019, 07:58:52 AM
Last relatively clear day in this area was the 25th of May where the rubbleness of the "landfast" ice is obvious:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 08:48:43 AM
The latest picture was taken 00:56h UTC.

Correction: In the natural colours band there is a pic taken 03:28h UTC.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 07, 2019, 11:06:36 AM
Well, it's the 7th today. If by midnight tonight CET, no image is posted that clearly shows open water all along the coast, the June 1-7 bin will be out of the game!  ;D

I think this is the best poll ever posted on the ASIF.  :D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 11:21:54 AM
06:51h UTC

The satellite passed Ellesmere Island.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on June 07, 2019, 11:40:55 AM
 looks all over bar the shouting .. :) .. what @ 0pen water Bering to the Lena delta next ? .. b.c.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 07, 2019, 11:44:03 AM
MODIS 826Z

http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu/search?utf8=%E2%9C%93&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B4%5D=1&search%5Bsensors%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B16%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B1%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B15%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B17%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B3%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B18%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B10%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B11%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B9%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B8%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B12%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B13%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B14%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B6%5D=1&search%5Bfeeds%5D%5B5%5D=1&search%5Bstart%5D=&search%5Bend%5D=&commit=Search
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 11:59:07 AM
08:32h UTC

The satellite over the Amundsen Gulf.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 07, 2019, 12:02:23 PM
This doesn't meet my definition of 'open', need something better, today:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on June 07, 2019, 12:31:42 PM
Cloud when you really don't need it.

Reminds me of Monty Python's "Total Eclipse of the Sun 1972".... "Rain... Rain".
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 07, 2019, 12:36:42 PM
And let us remember the time zones. Is Barrow at +9, +10 or +11?

(Oh, it 's at +8, or rather,  -8 so utc 8:00 on 20190608 is the proper change of date.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 07, 2019, 12:50:31 PM
Cloud when you really don't need it.

Reminds me of Monty Python's "Total Eclipse of the Sun 1972".... "Rain... Rain".

I think we may get lucky and get some clearing around 15Z.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 01:34:35 PM
10:42h UTC
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rodius on June 07, 2019, 02:21:54 PM
I really need to go to bed but I want to be right about June 1 to 7.
I will be up early to check the result in the morning.

I cant figure out if I need a social life or not.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 07, 2019, 02:27:18 PM
F***ing hell that last finger is arcing like it's electric!

Just let go!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 03:34:00 PM
LOL

12:21h UTC
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 07, 2019, 03:40:05 PM
Nope, not open.  ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 05:07:47 PM
14:02h UTC

Still a big nope. That thing is elastic!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on June 07, 2019, 05:56:03 PM
BBC Weather for utqiagvik

FOG until 3 pm Barrow time = 11 pm GMT = midnight BST = 1 a.m. 8 June European time
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 06:19:06 PM

FOG

It's already clearing up from the east.

15:41h UTC

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 07, 2019, 06:24:35 PM
We need a second poll on which part of the elastic finger the release will occur at...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 07:54:30 PM
15:42h UTC

Not quite yet.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 07, 2019, 08:39:52 PM
13+ hours to go   ::)

hophe tha satellite didn't crash, missing the next pics LOL

self-evidently i'm in the 1st - 7th slot
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 07, 2019, 09:29:42 PM
It is good fun that the apparent 'evaporation' (actually melting and/or dispersion) of the ice dam is occurring at the cusp of the two most-voted-in options.  I was obviously prescient with my decision to make somebody else (i.e., Neven) judge the transition from 'closed' to 'open'.  I may want him to sway one way while another coaxes him in another direction, but he is more used to handling such pressures than am I.

Long live Neven.  (hint, hint) ;)

And if you want to influence him, there is always the "Support and Donate (https://www.paypal.com/donate/?token=Muxw0zb07Zcc-xeeXGC_OF7K3YZ3G2Lyn5hySogczg45jjtBTklIZ0q72hMjJRw1jxb11G&country.x=US&locale.x=US)" button on the Arctic Sea ice (ASI) Blog (https://neven1.typepad.com/) (on the right margin).

I may be suggesting bribery in jest, but I am seriously suggesting you support this project of Neven's (the ASI blog, forum and graphs - see links at top right of this page for Blog and Graphs).
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 09:41:11 PM
18:58h UTC

Clouds are gone. Clear view showing: Still connected
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 07, 2019, 09:58:09 PM
18:58h UTC

Clouds are gone. Clear view showing: Still connected

this does not count no need to mention again LOL but the bridge is gone, a matter of hours considering wind speed, direction and temps.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 07, 2019, 10:12:06 PM
Windy is a model.

Satellite pictures show what actually happens.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 07, 2019, 10:56:30 PM
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on June 07, 2019, 11:08:18 PM
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D
Neven - you said based on the university of bremen sea ice concentration maps.
Does that mean we wait until tomorrow for the 7 june map?
Does that mean that the time depended on when the satellite made its pass over that little bit of the coast?

Reputations and honour are at stake. This could mean - Civil War on the ASIF !!?*?**!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 07, 2019, 11:31:53 PM
13+ hours to go   ::)

I thought I said midnight CET. It's almost 23 hours in Europe right now.  ;D

ahhh.. ok, up to you i didn't even think that we would use anything but local event time but point taken.

thanks for the heads-up, i missed that part obviously ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 07, 2019, 11:53:30 PM
Okay, I won't be a cold-hearted assh**e (who voted 8-17) and close the poll in 8 minutes.

But I want to see some good, high-resolution images tomorrow with the right time stamp on it (no photoshopping!).

Off to bed now, hoping I can sleep with all this excitement going on. Thanks, Tor...  ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 08, 2019, 03:01:34 AM
I'm calling it open, as I could no doubt paddle my old aluminum canoe through that wispy slush ribbon right now.  ;D

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rodius on June 08, 2019, 03:11:19 AM
The suspense.... the drama
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 08, 2019, 04:08:39 AM
In any case, there is no doubt that the Pacific sector is unprecedentedly bad.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8ekTYZV4AEFfpD.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 04:58:39 AM
Good morning America, how are you?

01:06h UTC

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 08, 2019, 05:04:14 AM
Quote
Good morning America, how are you?
Still dwelling in yesterday.

The train used to go through Tallahassee on its way to New Orleans, but a hurricane years ago put an end to that.  :'( (But they say it's coming back!  :))
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TvMS_ykiLiQ
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 05:27:40 AM
Years ago, eh? America sure is taking infrastructure seriously...  ::)

Sleep well America, we wait for you.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 08, 2019, 05:33:20 AM
EDIT: SPOILER ALERT

At the end of yesterday I was very confident it would happen today.

About half way through the day today, looking at that elastic finger, I lost hope.

With only a few hours left local time, based on the latest RAMMB slider image, I now think that the elastic finger will break in time, but that the trail of slime it has left behind will make it difficult to declare that we have open water...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 05:40:42 AM
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 08, 2019, 05:55:02 AM
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..

I added a spoiler alert to my previous post  :-*
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 05:56:26 AM
LOL  ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 08, 2019, 05:57:00 AM
Quote
Prior to Hurricane Katrina in 2005 Tallahassee was a station stop on Amtrak's Sunset Limited
Quote
Amtrak Could Resume Service in Tallahassee By 2020
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 08, 2019, 06:03:47 AM
Upss!
Is there a green point?
I didn't put it with Paint!  ;)
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/)


Alaska: 3 hours to end the day.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 06:03:47 AM
Well, what do i do judging American infrastructure? Berlin's new airport is also a source of neverending joy...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 08, 2019, 06:19:30 AM
Worldview with time stamp:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 07:08:03 AM
04:18h UTC - MODIS 721

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 08, 2019, 07:21:38 AM
04:18h UTC - MODIS 721

I can almost see a passage through... it's 9:20 pm in Barrow.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 07:30:58 AM
Wdmn, i'm not gonna call it. Too risky. ;)

IMHO there are still too many brightish dots all the way up.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wdmn on June 08, 2019, 07:38:02 AM
Wdmn, i'm not gonna call it. Too risky. ;)

IMHO there are still too many brightish dots all the way up.

I know, I know. You're right.

Thoughts and prayers!

Mr. Gyre, tear down that wall!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Aluminium on June 08, 2019, 07:43:48 AM
Julian calendar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_calendar). ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: binntho on June 08, 2019, 08:33:26 AM
Julian calendar (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_calendar). ;)

Another calendar I have to refer to quite a lot is the Ethiopian which is "semi-Julian", i.e. same problem with leap years but very different from the Russian-Orthodox calendar, the other well known Julian calendar.

Today June 8th 2019 at 08:10 would translate into 02:10 on Sanni 1st (which equates to June 1st) in the year 2011.

So any Ethiopians out there still have 6 days to fit into the 1-7 slot, but which year though?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 08, 2019, 09:29:20 AM
This is where things get interesting. If the fast ice along the coast disintegrates, the passage will be blocked a while longer. In the meantime, the winds will start to blow the other way, with a cyclone coming in. It's all up to melting now, and with a bit of bad luck even the '8-17' bin may not be a winner.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 09:36:17 AM
05:53 UTC

Neven might be right and this is not at all this imminent event we thought.

Found a Dragon nearby.:
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on June 08, 2019, 10:56:40 AM
It is a mountain lion looking down over the edge of the icy precipice.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 11:00:37 AM
Rotate it 90˚to the left, and it becomes a cute little horse.  :D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: iceman on June 08, 2019, 11:25:21 AM
Gonna show the thriller as seen on RAMMB even though there are spoilers in the thread..

I'm sitting and staring wide-eyed, mindlessly cramming popcorn into my mouth.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 11:40:10 AM
I mean, who doesn't?? ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 12:01:09 PM
A zoom in on the elastic slush.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 08, 2019, 02:00:52 PM
As I understand it, this isthmus consists of old ice?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=120862;image)

Or is the language of old ice already shifted to the Chukchi Sea?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 03:22:52 PM
That's a great find ArcticMelt2, i didn't realize that.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 08, 2019, 03:35:47 PM
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 08, 2019, 09:25:07 PM
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Well, you are right.

It is just a day stamp, not a time stamp.
Surely someone here knows about the satellites timing, but I don't.
So, I cannot tell you.  :(


P.S. I post it ~3 hours before Alaska midnight.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 08, 2019, 09:44:26 PM
NASA WorldView doesn't have timestamps. Neither does Sentinel Playground. Only the day and it could be taken anytime during this day.

Sites with timestamps:

Rammb Slider: http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/.

PolarView: https://www.polarview.aq/antarctic

GINA Puffin Feeder: http://feeder.gina.alaska.edu
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 08, 2019, 10:01:05 PM
https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/index.html?date=&prod=SIC&area=NP&sensor=MOD
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 08, 2019, 10:02:56 PM
Worldview with time stamp:

i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp nor do i see one in your posted image, it only tells the day but not the time, can you provide help how to find the time in those images, i rarely use those and have little experience, thanks.
Well, you are right.

It is just a day stamp, not a time stamp.
Surely someone here knows about the satellites timing, but I don't.
So, I cannot tell you.  :(


P.S. I post it ~3 hours before Alaska midnight.


ahh... ok, thought i missed the feature, B_L posted images with a mention of the hour but no timestamp included in the image as well. i'm still searching

in the mean time i found the above, i know it's not a proof but apparently it's open in one or another way now. it's not a model but based on sat-observation:

GCOM-W AMSR2
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 09, 2019, 04:36:12 AM
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: sqwazw on June 09, 2019, 05:33:48 AM
Is there a green point?

Not any more...surrounded by blue on the 8th.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 09, 2019, 05:53:20 AM
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.


P.S. Officialy open more or less one month earlier than any other year.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 09, 2019, 06:29:26 AM
timestamp included in the image as well

The Rammb Slider site does that.

If you take a screenshot without timestamp included, you can always post the link to the picture in question.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 09, 2019, 08:48:52 AM
Close, but still no cigar?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 09, 2019, 11:53:57 AM
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.


P.S. Officialy open more or less one month earlier than any other year.

8th, going by this one (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/jun/ChukchiBeaufort/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190608-v5.4_nic.png). (personally, I don't consider slush to be solid connected ice, so 6th!)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on June 09, 2019, 11:58:10 AM
I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rich on June 09, 2019, 12:16:25 PM
I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.

I agree. But it's not worth arguing over.

The big picture is that this is happening a month earlier than in the past.  With the heat coming to Arctic coastlines in the coming days, would be sailors are going to find ever increasing navigable waters
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 09, 2019, 12:29:05 PM
So for the moment, we can't see due to the hefty cloud cover.

But the latest Sentinel playground picture i looked at, i wouldn't go through there with a non ice breaker. It might look like slush but mind the scale. There are huge floes inside that slush and the slush itself is very compact.

Not arguing, only saying i wouldn't do it!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 09, 2019, 04:04:39 PM
Open or not?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 09, 2019, 04:32:53 PM
Close, but still no cigar?

I'm not willing to call it yet. It has to be open water all the way, really open water. Or else there's no point in me writing a blog post about it.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 09, 2019, 05:53:54 PM
It's been nothing but a string of slush for 2 days.
So, June 7th, 8th or 9th?
I think June 8th or 9th.

as a 1-7th slot representative i agree with 8th or 9th, was interesting and fun either way, thanks to all positive contributors to this exiting event coverage.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 09, 2019, 07:26:10 PM
16:45 UTC

Still can't say for sure...  :-X
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 09, 2019, 09:11:25 PM
18:22 UTC

Is it?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 09, 2019, 09:20:08 PM
...  open more or less one month earlier than any other year.
This, of course, is the main purpose of this poll - to help us recognize what's happening.  :'(

I would certainly feel that 'sailing a non-icebreaker' along the Alaskan coast has been possible for a few days now .. that was the original definition of 'open' .. b.c.
Well, Neven's interpretation of this ...  :P
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 10, 2019, 12:44:14 AM
18:22 UTC

Is it?

I think that front blew a path through the slush, but until all the clouds clear, can't be 100 percent positive.  There's a real chance the winds blow the pack back in, and I'm not sure if that would nullify any "open" path.   I'll let others decide.
2139Z
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 10, 2019, 01:07:34 AM
I paddled my canoe thru there on the 6th, honest.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 10, 2019, 01:12:30 AM
I'm quite willing to believe you, Hap.  Pity it wasn't a sailboat.   ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 10, 2019, 03:43:29 AM
Here is a Sentinel-hub Playground (https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/sentinel-playground/?source=S2&lat=71.63391059639261&lng=-155.0907325744629&zoom=13&preset=1-NATURAL-COLOR&layers=B01,B02,B03&maxcc=41&gain=0.2&gamma=0.5&time=2018-12-01%7C2019-06-09&atmFilter=ATMCOR&showDates=true) 'close up' of the icy isthmus from a couple days ago.  Amazing how dense it it, given the individual floes are pretty much 25 meters across or less (much less, mostly). (scale in the lower right corner - you may need to scroll to see it)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rod on June 10, 2019, 04:17:56 AM
I think it's over ...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 10, 2019, 04:20:39 AM
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.


Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Rod on June 10, 2019, 04:30:31 AM
I think Neven is asleep.  When he wakes up, I'm pretty sure he will agree it is open.  Wow!   So early for a clear path around Alaska!

PS. - Great image JayW!!!   
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 10, 2019, 05:23:31 AM
Bremen false color map...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 10, 2019, 05:29:14 AM
And Worldview for June 10th. (At this time, only appears Chukchi and Beaufort Seas).
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 10, 2019, 05:40:40 AM
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

How do you make a loop with the stills filtered out? On ezGIF?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 10, 2019, 06:01:24 AM
https://twitter.com/lavergnetho

Quote
The regional #SeaIce extent curve is one month earlier 2017, and two whole months earlier than in the 1980s.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D8pqYqGXUAIL75t.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 10, 2019, 06:04:30 AM
i was looking at the same but didn't find a time stamp ...
It seems that Worldview doesn't have a timestamp because it makes the full Arctic picture with several images taken at different times. It has been starting a new day with Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 10, 2019, 06:23:18 AM
Y'all can go on about it being open if you want - me, I'm gonna keep on paddlin' to Prince Patrick Island.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: dingojoe on June 10, 2019, 06:40:44 AM
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

If you look closely, you can see how the ice stretched out like the tape at the finish line of a race, and HapHazard paddled through in his canoe and the tape snapped in two.  He had his calendar upside down though, and it was the 9th not the 6th.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 10, 2019, 06:45:48 AM
I blame the Laphroaig.  ;D
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Neven on June 10, 2019, 06:47:25 AM
I'm awake and it's open. Good to see that Rick Thoman follows this forum.  ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: wallen on June 10, 2019, 07:34:22 AM
Assuming this remains opens, would be interested to hear of the impact it may have, over the rest of the melt season.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: sark on June 10, 2019, 08:53:19 AM
Y'all can go on about it being open if you want - me, I'm gonna keep on paddlin' to Prince Patrick Island.

Plant some Cycads and Citrus trees
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 10, 2019, 10:51:37 AM
32 hour loop, the frontal passage and associated wind shift is quite evident, it also removes all doubt from my mind that it's clear sailing for a non-icebreaker.

How do you make a loop with the stills filtered out? On ezGIF?
No filter,.I omit the frames when the satellite doesn't image the area by taking screenshots, it's a bit tedious, but makes for a better finished product in my opinion.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 10, 2019, 11:13:48 AM
Oh, that's a lot of work for a GIF. Thanks for the effort man! Well done.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: seaice.de on June 10, 2019, 01:26:04 PM
AMSR2 animation the scene.

https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1138007405369942016

As always click to play
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 10, 2019, 01:34:07 PM
Holy cow, seaice.de! What a freaking awesome animation.

Thanks so much for sharing.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 10, 2019, 04:27:32 PM
I'm awake and it's open. Good to see that Rick Thoman follows this forum.  ;)
Ever the statesman, I note Neven didn't say when!  And then he pulled a 'squirrel' so we wouldn't notice.   :o  ::) :P  ;D
Thanks for all the interesting comments and creative presentations. 

And remember not to drink and paddle drive, unless your vehicle has Full Self-Driving Capability.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 10, 2019, 05:55:02 PM
I blame the Laphroaig.  ;D

i prefer the lagavulin ;)  :P
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on June 10, 2019, 06:25:26 PM

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 10, 2019, 06:51:17 PM
I kept looking yesterday, but the NWS don't seem to work on Sunday. Today's update seems conclusive however?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 10, 2019, 08:11:03 PM

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...

you mean those with up to 70 degrees and a drop of distilled water from a pipette ?   

even though i'm mostly with you, for "weekly use" LOL (don't want to out me as a "daily")
there are a few nice ones, i.e.

- Isabella's Islay
- Macallan "M" whisky
- Macallan 64 Year Old in Lalique
- Dalmore 62 Single Highland Malt Scotch
- Dalmore 64 Trinitas

all true but still a bit [kidding] certainly you know why LOL [big fun]

i'll let you know when i drive by with my 2-wheeler the next time (this summer hopefully) perhaps i can learn new things.

Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 10, 2019, 09:46:14 PM
If you're not taking out a 2nd mortgage for a bottle of scotch, it's crappy scotch.

*clangs back a PBR*
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: johnm33 on June 10, 2019, 10:30:43 PM

You guys should join the Scotch Malt Whiskey Society. Though I warn you, you'll never drink an off the shelf bottle again...
Unless you move to Constantine (https://www.drinkfinder.co.uk/world-whisky)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Darvince on June 11, 2019, 11:38:55 AM
Oof! I was dramatically beaten in this poll by the weather. I was one of the fellows who voted for July. I didn't have much reason for voting July, and looking at 2016 vs '19 in the first post now, it is clear that it was going to be much easier for this year to achieve open water between them than it was in '16, due to the different angles the ice was moving at. It is quite unsettling to see it open so early :D :o :(
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on June 11, 2019, 12:02:54 PM
I too was beaten by the weather .. I had felt it possible that it could have happened before the end of May ..:) .. b.c.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 11, 2019, 06:58:09 PM
BTW, it seems that I've previously neglected to mention that I voted for June 8-17.

Is the consensus here now that June 8-17 was the "right" answer?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 11, 2019, 07:10:12 PM
BTW, it seems that I've previously neglected to mention that I voted for June 8-17.

Is the consensus here now that June 8-17 was the "right" answer?

one can say so, it was tight as predicted but the 8th, published at the 9th, was the first day that was showing a clean channel. the rest remains prone to definitions but in case of doubt i'm opting for clear visuals instead of half smart artificial definitions.

WHICH is why i dislike to read 1'000'000 km/2 of ice extent as "Ice-Free" i pledge for a consequent approach to such matters, else things have a small of arbitrariness at the will of a few.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 11, 2019, 08:52:48 PM
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on June 11, 2019, 08:59:48 PM
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

Well that certainly wasn't very haphazard of you. Please could you be a little more random in your guesses? Otherwise I'll be asking Neven to change you name to something more suitable. e.g. "NotVeryHapHazard".
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Juan C. García on June 11, 2019, 09:17:55 PM
I voted for bin Jun 6-10.

Well that certainly wasn't very haphazard of you. Please could you be a little more random in your guesses? Otherwise I'll be asking Neven to change you name to something more suitable. e.g. "NotVeryHapHazard".
There is not a bin Jun 6-10.
But lucky you! Completely right in the middle!  ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: HapHazard on June 11, 2019, 09:27:55 PM
Lucky indeed!

(my OCD dictates that voting bins should be equal in duration.)

This was a fun poll. I normally don't participate in them (even avoiding those threads), as I don't want to introduce any subconscious bias regarding my interpretation of the pressing issues here in the North.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 11, 2019, 09:50:27 PM
I lost. I assumed wrong physics.

Yes Hap, i agree. This was a cool poll.

Thank you, Tor, for initializing it.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 11, 2019, 10:23:47 PM
before i forget it:

after or during each of those poll i strongly recommend the thread owners to use overlapping bins next time.

this poll showed very well why, i think it's obvious. one has to go for this or next week while in fact the uncertainty layed around the switch dates.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 13, 2019, 12:19:11 PM
What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Sterks on June 13, 2019, 12:42:28 PM
New thread:
Poll: Beaufort Polynya re-connecting to Bering Strait open water
This one is much more difficult.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 13, 2019, 12:44:16 PM
What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?

I think the winds made a good run at closing it back up, but fell short, at least so far.  The pack becoming more disperse is allowing the complex currents to reveal themselves.  I'd say a non icebreaker can still safely navigate, but others may have a different opinion on what's considered open.

Contrast boosted for detail
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 13, 2019, 04:52:59 PM
What does the team make of the latest NWS ice map?

we have to keep in mind that:

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

c) a + b together mean that those maps are on the most cautious and consevative side and in fact one can sail through without any issues and with any kind of vessel/boat with caution.

d) sattelite images show exactly the above.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 13, 2019, 09:10:53 PM

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

The yellow area is up to 6/10 concentration, which is indeed "passable with caution". I'm not necessarily sure that applies to "any kind of vessel" though!
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: be cause on June 13, 2019, 09:16:28 PM
 Has the boat not already sailed ? .. b.c. :)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: gerontocrat on June 13, 2019, 10:11:17 PM
Has the boat not already sailed ? .. b.c. :)
The jaws of fate may close again. The boat may meet an untimely end.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 13, 2019, 10:16:32 PM
I understand the boat sailed from Maryland, USA on June 13, 2011 (and returned 310 days later making only left turns):  I refer to Matt Rutherford on the St Brendan, an 8.2 m sail boat.  Everybody should watch the movie Red Dot on the Ocean (https://reddotontheocean.com/).
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: JayW on June 14, 2019, 02:55:04 AM
Pack looks like it's retreating north once again, but a portion of fast ice just came loose.
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=band_i01&x=15501.2783203125&y=20923.083984375
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: magnamentis on June 14, 2019, 03:51:15 AM

a) those drawings cover areas while in fact within those areas ice is not evenly distributed, there are ice-free paths and spots as well as ice-fields.

b) those maps are made for marine traffic and has the main purpose keep them at maximum safety.

The yellow area is up to 6/10 concentration, which is indeed "passable with caution". I'm not necessarily sure that applies to "any kind of vessel" though!

ok, we can discuss the term "any kind" while very small boats should have no issues and larger boats should have some stability while a tourist river boat from "La Saine" in Paris perhaps won't make it, only that we probably won't find any of those non-sea-worthy boats or ships up there.

so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Peter Ellis on June 14, 2019, 10:02:34 PM
so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise ;)

Well quite.  You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.  After all, you can't have your kayak and heat it.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 14, 2019, 11:52:27 PM
You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.

You might if you looked hard enough. And how about a one woman craft in those waters?

http://anne-quemere.com/en/les-aleas-du-passage-du-nord-ouest/
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 15, 2019, 06:57:53 AM
Oh cool. With solar cells.

That's especially clever up there in summer.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: binntho on June 15, 2019, 07:21:22 AM
so my meaning applies to all kinds of boats an ships that dare to cruise the arctic in the first place.
hope that's more precise ;)

Well quite.  You wouldn't find anyone paddling a one-man craft in those waters, they'd freeze to death.  After all, you can't have your kayak and heat it.
Isn't that what the Inuits have been doing these last 1000 years or more? I.e. paddling around in their one-man kajaks in Arctic waters?

The inuits apparently developed the technology necessary to live all-year-round in the high Arctic some 1000 - 4000 years ago (according to Jared Diamond, from memory), and one of their innovations was seal fishing from kajaks rowing between floes in semi-frozen waters.
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 15, 2019, 09:47:11 AM
Plenty of clear skies recently, revealing crumbling fast ice and clear water:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/06/facts-about-the-arctic-in-june-2019/#Jun-15
Title: Re: Poll: Beaufort Polynya connecting to Bering Strait open water
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 21, 2019, 08:56:44 PM
The last three winters (from October to May) in Barrow are 6 degrees warmer than the average in the 20th century (-17 degrees Celsius).