Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 06:16:59 AM

Title: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 06:16:59 AM
Many believe that space colonization will not be able to solve the problem of the coming climate catastrophe. Most hope that it will soon be possible to create carbon-free energy. But the facts say that carbon dioxide emissions are increasing every year (despite the Paris Agreement).

https://phys.org/news/2018-12-strong-growth-global-co2-emissions.html

https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/hires/2018/stronggrowth.jpg

Moreover, in the United States, Trump became the president, who believes that there is no global warming.

In this regard, I decided to create a poll on when carbon dioxide emissions will pass...
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 06:24:45 AM
I went with 2020-2024. More wishful thinking than realism i guess.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 06:42:13 AM
I personally put on the 22nd century.

https://www.worldcoal.org/coal/where-coal-found

Quote
There are an estimated 1.1 trillion tonnes of proven coal reserves worldwide. This means that there is enough coal to last us around 150 years at current rates of production. In contrast, proven oil and gas reserves are equivalent to around 50 and 52 years at current production levels.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 28, 2019, 06:47:54 AM
AM2,
I need help with the question...  Are you asking when atmospheric CO2 concentrations peak? Or when the rate of increase will show deceleration?  Or something else:  industrial emissions ("coal"), direct human caused (industry, agriculture, forest clearing). Are you referring to a specific CO2 data set?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 06:50:21 AM
Well, because it's there does not necessarily mean we will pull it all out.

Renewables are cheaper now. These coal plants will all be obsolete sometime soon.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 06:53:51 AM
AM2,
I need help with the question...  Are you asking when atmospheric CO2 concentrations peak? Or when the rate of increase will show deceleration?  Or something else:  industrial emissions ("coal"), direct human caused (industry, agriculture, forest clearing). Are you referring to a specific CO2 data set?

Naturally, we are talking about the magnitude of annual emissions of CO2 by the civilization into the atmosphere.

https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/18/files/GCP_CarbonBudget_2018.pdf
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-emissions-reached-an-all-time-high-in-2018/
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Rich on May 28, 2019, 07:02:47 AM
Depends on who wins the US election. If Trump wins, kuck the can down the road. If Sanders or Warren win, they'll announce a climate emergency straight away.
 
Biden's lead climate advisor is a fracker. He would probably dick around for a few years.

I think a potentially more interesting poll is when will we hit net zero. Lot's of interesting things have to happen to get there.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 07:17:42 AM
Rich, China and India are the ones to focus on when it comes to CO2 emissions grow now. It doesn't matter in the great picture if the US will emit plus 5% or minus 5%, which might be the maximum influence the presidency has on CO2 emissions.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Rich on May 28, 2019, 08:16:34 AM
Rich, China and India are the ones to focus on when it comes to CO2 emissions grow now. It doesn't matter in the great picture if the US will emit plus 5% or minus 5%, which might be the maximum influence the presidency has on CO2 emissions.

I don't subscribe to the idea that the US has no influence on international affairs. If a US president ties trade, aid and military policy to emissions reductions, we can accomplish a lot.

Strong disagreement there.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 09:04:47 AM
Renewables are cheaper now. These coal plants will all be obsolete sometime soon.

This is a big doubt. The wind and the sun are not a permanent source of energy. Therefore, they cannot physically replace fossil fuels.

The only permanent source of renewable energy is hydropower plants, biofuels and hydro-accumulating stations. But their available potential is extremely small compared to fossil fuel reserves.

In this regard, even in green Germany, more than half of the electricity is still generated by burning coal.

I fear that no working alternative to fossil fuels to provide energy to many billions of people is impossible to create. In this regard, people will increase the emissions of greenhouse gases for many decades.

In addition, most people do not see danger in warming. On the contrary, they consider it a blessing. Therefore, they will continue to burn coal further and further, until the planet overheats.

It reminds me of the events of 2010, when people were chasing profits, completely losing their fear. When methane emissions from melting permafrost and bottom gas hydrates begin, let alone degassing the mantle will be too late.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grkruRVjveA#t=38m19s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5skn-tZTTc
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: oren on May 28, 2019, 09:29:53 AM
I went for 2040-2049, with a combination of too late and too little emission curbing effort, plus a high probability of a collapse of human civilization mid-century.
This might be a bit harsh because emissions may peak a decade earlier, but still be substantial enough to increase GHG concentrations significantly. So maybe I should have voted 2030-2039.

Re renewables, it's certainly feasible with a combination of overbuilding, storage, demand management to fit variable supply, and natgas backup for rare days. I just don't see humanity enter a war economy with a WW2 style effort to revolutionize civilization and stop emissions. I hope I am wrong.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 09:55:46 AM
plus a high probability of a collapse of human civilization mid-century.

I wonder what you associate a possible collapse of civilization?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 09:58:35 AM
Strong disagreement there.
Ok, then let us look at the numbers.

A US citizen is emitting ~15 t per year per capita [1] times 325m equals ~4.875b t. Statistica has it over 5b [3].
A European one ~8.7 [2] times 740m = ~ 6.5b t.
A Chinese one ~6.5 t [1] times 1.5b = 9.75b t.
A Indian one ~1.7t [4] times 1.3b = 2.21b t.

So let's say, for the sake of the argument, Bernie somehow achieves to lower the US emissions to Euro levels.

8.7t times 325m = ~2.828 = the Earth saves 2b t.

How about China and India. They will grow, that's for sure. What if they achieve a European lifestyle?

8.7 times 1.5b = ~13.05bt = 3.3b t more. Minus the 2b t we saved from US reduction still leaves a net plus of 1,3b.
Adding India,
8.7 times 1.3b = ~11.31b t = 9,1 more. Together with China we now added over 10b t.

[1] https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liste_der_Länder_nach_CO2-Emission
[2] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=t2020_rd300&plugin=1
[3] https://www.statista.com/statistics/183943/us-carbon-dioxide-emissions-from-1999/
[4] https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=co2+emission+india&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 10:15:10 AM
This is a big doubt. The wind and the sun are not a permanent source of energy. Therefore, they cannot physically replace fossil fuels.

That's just not the case. There are some countries/regions on earth that work on 100% renewables today.

All these paid for articles about how it can't work is part of a marketing campaign funded by the fossil fuel industry.

Links >>

(Sort by percentage renewable) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_production_from_renewable_sources

Quote
70%, 80%, 99.9%, 100% Renewables — Study Central
https://cleantechnica.com/70-80-99-9-100-renewables-study-central/

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A Rapid Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Across Europe is Possible
https://www.eveline-lemke.de/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/EWG-LUT_Full-Study_Energy-Transition-Europe.pdf

Quote
New Study: Global Energy System based on 100% Renewable Energy
http://energywatchgroup.org/new-study-global-energy-system-based-100-renewable-energy

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New Study: 100% Renewable Energy across Europe is More Cost Effective than the Current Energy System and Leads to Zero Emissions Before 2050
http://energywatchgroup.org/new-study-100-renewable-energy-across-europe
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 10:15:29 AM
CO2 emissions could peak this year, if the US China trade spat turns into a trade war and in turn provokes a financial and economic crisis (dodgy loans again). Some sort of economic downturn is overdue. 

But that could be a temporary peak, as to get world GDP back onto the infinite growth path quick and dirty economic stimuli are applied. I.e. rather than accelerating investing in emission reduction such as renewable energy production, EVs and energy efficiency, and CO2 sink enhancement measures such as forestation, the opposite will be done.

There will be CO2 emissions for many years yet. The effectiveness of the CO2 sinks will decline. I do not believe in the magic bullet of CO2 capture and sequestration. So atmospheric CO2 ppm will increase for many years yet, possibly at a reduced rate from its current rate of 2.5 to 3 ppm per annum.

What happens to the planet and the biosphere will depend on the final maximum value of CO2 ppm plus the other greenhouse gases, and I will be a long time dead and buried by then.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 10:21:23 AM
In this regard, even in green Germany, more than half of the electricity is still generated by burning coal.

The German energy mix is:

30% coal
48% renewable
8% gas
13% nuclear

Link >> https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie_de.htm
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 10:30:17 AM
This is a big doubt. The wind and the sun are not a permanent source of energy. Therefore, they cannot physically replace fossil fuels.

That's just not the case. There are some countries/regions on earth that work on 100% renewables today.

All these paid for articles about how it can't work is part of a marketing campaign funded by the fossil fuel industry.

These regions are either small countries with large hydropower plants or very poor countries that get electricity by burning wood.

There is not a single large isolated country in the world with a leading role of wind power plants or solar power plants.

In addition, the success in reducing emissions in rich countries is largely due to the removal of dirty (energy-intensive) industries to poorer countries (for example, in China). In this regard, it is not clear whether it is possible in reality to reduce world emissions or not.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 10:43:18 AM
There is not a single large isolated country in the world with a leading role of wind power plants or solar power plants.

Ok, i've given you a bunch of studies showing 100% renewables in the grid is possible. I can add many more, but would you read them?

You are still telling me it's not possible. Can you do something to underline your point? An argument perhaps, cite a study, something like that?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 11:01:25 AM
There is another important point. The largest known reserves of oil and coal are in very cold regions.
Warming dramatically simplify the extraction and transportation of these resources in these regions. In addition, the coldest regions are the least studied, and there is great potential for discovery in the future.
In this regard, in the near future a new boom of cheap fossil fuel extraction is expected, similar to the one that is currently happening in the US (shale gas and oil).
In addition, robotization is another important factor. The widespread use of robots simplifies mining in sparsely populated regions.

So only 50 thousand people in Australia mined a billion tons of iron ore. A small port of Hubbert with a population of 20,000 occupies the 5th place in the world in terms of cargo turnover.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_ports_by_cargo_tonnage

Robots dramatically reduce the cost of extraction of fossil fuels in all climatic conditions.

In this regard, I think that humanity will not calm down until it burns the last drop of oil, the last ton of coal and the last gas cylinder.

As a result of this, scenario 8.5 will be most accurate - the most pessimistic (business as usual). It reminds me of the events on Saint Helena in 1980, when the most pessimistic forecast turned out to be the most correct.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jEXLp2JKg4Y
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 11:09:31 AM
There is not a single large isolated country in the world with a leading role of wind power plants or solar power plants.

Ok, i've given you a bunch of studies showing 100% renewables in the grid is possible. I can add many more, but would you read them?

You are still telling me it's not possible. Can you do something to underline your point? An argument perhaps, cite a study, something like that?

The main difficulty in the need to build extremely expensive power lines of extra high voltage (it is extremely superconducting to minimize energy loss).

In addition to the high cost of construction and operation, this trend in Germany faced protests from the population. No one wants to live near a dangerous object (strong magnetic fields). In this regard, this trend is actually developing only in authoritarian countries, like China.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: oren on May 28, 2019, 11:22:54 AM
The main difficulty in the need to build extremely expensive power lines of extra high voltage (it is extremely superconducting to minimize energy loss).
This may be true, but certainly possible and feasible. It's a problem of human decision, not of any technology or economic obstacle.
You asked if it was possible in reality to switch to renewable energy. This depends on the definition of "in reality". In theory human and human societies are rational and driven by science. In reality humans and human societies are greedy and short-sighted. So yes, it's certainly possible in reality, but in real reality I am afraid it will not happen. I doubt that your comments here are contributing to the chances of it happening though, as you seem to be repeating defamations of renewables, which I suspect are spread by deniers and corporate interests.

Quote
In addition to the high cost of construction and operation, this trend in Germany faced protests from the population. No one wants to live near a dangerous object (strong magnetic fields). In this regard, this trend is actually developing only in authoritarian countries, like China.
This is plain nonsense. I'd much rather live besides a solar or wind farm than besides a coal plant. Dangerous object, strong magnetic field? What? Why?

In this regard, I think that humanity will not calm down until it burns the last drop of oil, the last ton of coal and the last gas cylinder.

As a result of this, scenario 8.5 will be most accurate - the most pessimistic (business as usual). It reminds me of the events on Saint Helena in 1980, when the most pessimistic forecast turned out to be the most correct.
I tend to agree with the RCP 8.5 scenario until the planet's carrying capacity limits and resource constraints will pull civilization down, thus ending business as usual. This will happen long before the last oil coal and gas are burned.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: S.Pansa on May 28, 2019, 11:25:10 AM
In this regard, even in green Germany, more than half of the electricity is still generated by burning coal.

The German energy mix is:

30% coal
48% renewable
8% gas
13% nuclear

Link >> https://www.energy-charts.de/energy_pie_de.htm

That's not the energy mix,  but the electricity generation mix. A slender but essential difference.

100% renewable electricity generation (globaly - at some places it is already reality) might be well achievable (some papers say yes, others (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2016.02.051) are more sceptical; depends also on the demand-side: we wont green-grow our arse out of this mess, that's fore sure) - 100% renewable energy production is a totaly diffent ballgame tough (http://www.bpb.de/nachschlagen/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52741/primaerenergie-versorgung).

World energy consumption ~170 TWh
World electricity consumpiton ~ 25 TWh

Or here in Germany: Primary Energy generation looks more like this (source (https://www.bmwi.de/Redaktion/DE/Publikationen/Energie/energieeffizienz-in-zahlen-2018.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=12), p. 15)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 11:26:34 AM
The main difficulty in the need to build extremely expensive power lines of extra high voltage (it is extremely superconducting to minimize energy loss).

Erm, no. A grid with a lot of renewables is rather decentralized. You ideally produce and store energy locally (pumped (hydro) storages, batteries). This is a factor that reduces the need for extensive power grids.

Whole continents are one big grid today needing these high voltage cables with conventional power sources. These strong magnetic fields in high voltage cables exist since we do electricity. This is not at all caused by renewables. And if it's even a health risk is a whole other discussion (hint: not!).

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 11:28:35 AM
That's not the energy mix,  but the electricity generation mix. A slender but essential difference.

Of course, that's correct.

Excuse my sloppy language here.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Rich on May 28, 2019, 12:25:13 PM
Strong disagreement there.
Ok, then let us look at the numbers.

So let's say, for the sake of the argument, Bernie somehow achieves to lower the US emissions to Euro levels.

How about China and India. They will grow, that's for sure. What if they achieve a European lifestyle?


How about assuming we get the votes for something like a Green New Deal and we do what the scientific community recommends and work toward net zero emissions?

How about solar and wind becoming cheaper than gas?

It's all in the assumptions.

Your floor seems to be current EU emissions of 8+ tons per capital.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 12:37:13 PM
This is plain nonsense. I'd much rather live besides a solar or wind farm than besides a coal plant. Dangerous object, strong magnetic field? What? Why?

It's all over the news. The biggest problem is overcoming the resistance of the population about the construction of new power lines. For example:

https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/german-farmers-protest-against-green-energy-grid-expansion/

https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-energy-protests-idUSL6N0WH0WH20150603

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/german-failure-on-the-road-to-a-renewable-future-a-1266586.html

Quote
The expansion of Germany's electrical grid has suffered the most from this lack of political impetus. More than a decade ago, the German government passed a resolution to quickly build the necessary high-voltage transmission lines, with experts today saying there is a need for 7,700 kilometers (4,800 miles) of such lines. But only 950 have been built. And in 2017, only 30 kilometers of lines were built across the whole country.

In Berlin, one can hear the wry observation that 30 kilometers is roughly the distance that a snail can travel in a year.




The fact that power lines are dangerous there is little doubt:

(https://s16164.pcdn.co/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/tower-distance-grey1.jpg)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 12:42:13 PM
Well, my personal floor is actually a sealing and it's 3t per capita and way fewer people. And sooner or later we'll get there. But even sooner in this picture is a long term figure. For the short term, we'll see an increase of CO2 emissions which will mostly come from China and India. A shitton of coal plants is being built there as we speak.

What i wanted to point out with my calculation are the magnitudes we are dealing with (per capita wise).
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 12:47:05 PM
It's all over the news.

It's all over the esoteric-scene!

FIFY :)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: bluice on May 28, 2019, 12:53:26 PM
Ok, i've given you a bunch of studies showing 100% renewables in the grid is possible. I can add many more, but would you read them?

You are still telling me it's not possible. Can you do something to underline your point? An argument perhaps, cite a study, something like that?
Maybe I can try also? :)

The way I see it is that they are just studies, the like we've all been reading since the nineties. These studies are often published by interest groups (although definitively not all), they have been challenged and there are other studies out there also. Because I don't have the knowledge and credentials to debunk or approve them, I can only look what's happening in the real world.

We hear a lot how 100% renewable economy is feasible and how renewables are nowadays the cheapest form of generation. We see two or three digit global growth figures for renewables. Yet emissions are growing every year. How can that be? Something ain't right here.

Non-hydro renewables are intermittent. To cover the downtime we need overcapacity, extensive power grids, grid-scale storage, fossil fuel back up power and/or flexible demand. These all add costs. Using FF backup is no longer carbon free. Storage + adjusting demand aren't available in commercial grid-scale solutions, no matter what the studies say.

My claim is that when taking all the additional costs into account renewables are no longer cheap but extremely expensive. German energiewende is a case in point. With a cost so prohibitive that only a handful of countries in the world would be able to afford it, Germany has been able to generate less than 50% of it electricity (not primary energy) with non-hydro renewables. As a consequence Germany is failing its emissiong goals.

Historically emissions have been falling by post-oil crisis nuclear construction for example in France and Sweden, economic collapse/recession for example former Soviet Union and the financial crisis, switching coal to gas with several examples around the world.

I'd like to believe it is also possible to reduce emissions by pricing carbon politically/fiscally, unfortunately the trumps and bolsonaros don't give me much hope we will be able to try this option anytime soon. I voted 2040-49 because I think by then the inevitable climate related economic stress will lead to emission peak and subsequent reduction. I'd be very happy to be proven wrong.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 01:08:25 PM
Downside of electromagnetism from High-Tension electricity transmission lines?

This is plain nonsense. I'd much rather live besides a solar or wind farm than besides a coal plant. Dangerous object, strong magnetic field? What? Why?

I used to think it was all nonsense until...

I went for a walk through some cherry orchards with an old fella at the end of the Bosnian war. He showed me how the cherry trees underneath the 132k? 400k power lines were in really poor condition - stunted, little fruit. Was it the lines? They were working (to my surprise) and I could certainly hear the buzz from them and feel some electrostatic effects (hair on the arms standing up). But maybe it was that the soil was messed up during construction (it was a line built not that many years before the war started) and so affected growth of the cherry trees .

After all, our bodies depend on internal electrical flows to function - exposure to additional electrical forces could mess up our internal systems.

So I am putting that one in a don't know category. And I  would still  much rather live besides a solar or wind farm than besides a coal plant.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 01:15:52 PM
Downside of electromagnetism from High-Tension electricity transmission lines?

There should be no contradictions here. Iron is one of the main elements in the blood (hemoglobin).

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: be cause on May 28, 2019, 01:22:31 PM
In answer to the original question .. about 5 years after a BOE .. so the sooner we have one the better for most of humanity .. b.c.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 28, 2019, 01:28:35 PM
I voted for early 20s because I still think we will run out of economically accessible fossil fuels in this century, so Peak Carbon will occur soon.
I hope.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 01:30:14 PM
These studies are often published by interest groups

Ok, here is a one from a publicly funded German science centre Frauenhofer, you can't get any more substantial and neutral:

Quote
Die Bereitstellung von 100 % erneuerbaren Energien im Strom- und Wärmesektor Deutschlands ist technisch möglich und nach erfolgter Umstellung des Energiesystems sind die jährlichen Gesamtkosten nicht höher als die Kosten unserer heutigen Energieversorgung.
https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/studie-100-erneuerbare-energien-fuer-strom-und-waerme-in-deutschland.pdf

Translates to 'Yeah, possible! For both sectors, and it's not even more expensive'.

Quote
Yet emissions are growing every year. How can that be?

Talked about China and India there, you might wanna read up on that.

Quote
Non-hydro renewables are intermittent. To cover the downtime we need overcapacity, extensive power grids, grid-scale storage, fossil fuel back up power and/or flexible demand. These all add costs. Using FF backup is no longer carbon free. Storage + adjusting demand aren't available in commercial grid-scale solutions, no matter what the studies say.


Really, you should at least read one of the many links i shared by now. All your questions will be answered then.

Quote
German energiewende is a case in point

You are comparing apples with oranges. Renewables are subsidised with an extra tax on the energy price the households pay. Nuclear, oil, coal and gas are subsidised by the governmental from federal budget. German customer see what the extra cost for renewables are. But when they pay income tax, they don't see that this money is also paying for energy.

Quote
nuclear construction for example in France

Nuclear is extremely unpopular in Germany. You can't build those anymore. The ones working today all have an expiring date.

Quote
I'd like to believe it is also possible

Then why not stop believing the denier shit and read up on what i provided so far?

Also this one should clear things up >> http://omegataupodcast.net/299-gravity-storage/

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 01:36:31 PM

The way I see it is that they are just studies, the like we've all been reading since the nineties. These studies are often published by interest groups (although definitively not all), they have been challenged and there are other studies out there also. Because I don't have the knowledge and credentials to debunk or approve them, I can only look what's happening in the real world.

The way I see it is that they are just studies
The real world says the auction prices for solar and wind power are dropping like a stone. The only thing that stopped CO2 emissions from already being in significant decline is lobbying and dirty money from the fossil fuel industries, and inertia in the automotive giants.

https://www.solarpaces.org/morocco-breaks-new-record-with-800-mw-midelt-1-csp-pv-at-7-cents/
Morocco’s 800 MW CSP-PV Noor Midelt breaks last year’s auction price record of 7.3 cents set by DEWA in the UAE, with winning bid at USD 7 cents/kWh
Quote
The Moroccan Agency for Sustainable Energy (MASEN) has announced that the consortium of EDF Renewables, Masdar, and Green of Africa – a joint venture between three Moroccan groups; FinanceCom, Akwa Group and AMHAL – has been awarded the tender for the design, financing, construction, operation and maintenance of the Noor Midelt Phase 1 multi-technologies solar power plant.

The project, which will have a total installed capacity of 800 MW, is the world’s first advanced hybridisation of concentrated solar power (CSP) and photovoltaic (PV) technologies. On completion, it will provide dispatchable solar energy during the day and until five hours after sunset for a record-low tariff at peak hours of 0.68 Moroccan dirhams per kilowatt-hour.

A longer read here..
http://euanmearns.com/a-review-of-recent-solar-wind-auction-prices/
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Archimid on May 28, 2019, 02:02:44 PM

Naturally, we are talking about the magnitude of annual emissions of CO2 by the civilization into the atmosphere.


To me this is not obvious at all. Emissions from permafrost, methane, forest fires and the ocean capacity to exchange CO2 all have a huge impact in the total number of CO2. My answer to the poll question before I read the thread was a century of more, because I was thinking of natural emissions.

However after seeing your clarification, which only includes human sources of CO2 my answer gets pulled to within the next two decades. 

The answer depends on two things. The renewables revolution and Arctic sea ice. They both determine when human CO2 emissions peak. Each one can stop the other from happening. The difference is that one ends humanity as we know it and the others ushers humanity into a new era of prosperity and balance with the environment.

Difficult indeed.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 02:23:17 PM
Power generation by source in EU countries (2000–2018)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: bluice on May 28, 2019, 03:18:45 PM
”Then why not stop believing the denier shit and read up on what i provided so far?”

I don’t believe any ”denier shit” but I don’t believe greenwashed crap either. I believe renewables reducing emissions when I see it happening. No studies, papers, plans but the actual emissions falling.

Why is Germany not meeting emission goals?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 03:20:57 PM
Why is Germany not meeting emission goals?

Because Merkel cut down on subsidies (Einspeisevergütung).
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 28, 2019, 03:23:29 PM
Naturally, we are talking about the magnitude of annual emissions of CO2 by the civilization into the atmosphere.
To me this is not obvious at all. Emissions from permafrost, methane, forest fires and the ocean capacity to exchange CO2 all have a huge impact in the total number of CO2. My answer to the poll question before I read the thread was a century of more, because I was thinking of natural emissions.
Thanks, Archimid!

AM2,
Both of the links mix "industrial output" with "global CO2 concentrations", e.g.,
Quote
The scientists project that fossil-fuel-related carbon dioxide emissions will hit a record high of 37.1 billion metric tons by the end of this year. And they estimate that total carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere will also hit their highest level ever, at 407 parts per million—about 45 percent higher than their preindustrial levels.
Also, I didn't see a highlighted dataset identified in either article, so I'm still not sure of the yardstick being used to determine 'who guessed right'.  At least one article referenced non-fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (cement production), but (like the quote above) there is a focus on fossil-fuel-related emissions.  Obviously (at least to Archimid and me) global (or Mauna Loa) atmospheric concentrations incorporate all sources (and sinks).  So I'm left with my bottom line question (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2708.msg201596.html#msg201596) intact: what dataset are you using?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 28, 2019, 03:25:09 PM
UK Coal right now: None!

Quote
UK Coal (@UK_Coal)
5/28/19, 9:02 AM
GB National Grid: #Coal is currently generating 0.00GW (0.00%) out of a total of 35.76GW
Continuous hours without coal: 262 (10 Days 22 Hours)
https://twitter.com/uk_coal/status/1133357777571778560

The previous record was set only a few weeks ago:
Quote
UK Coal (@UK_Coal)
5/9/19, 9:58 AM
This #Coal free run ended at 8 Days 1 Hour 25 Minutes.
This is the longest run without coal for Great Britain since 1882.

Generation during this time was met by: Gas 45%, Nuclear 21%, Wind 12%, Imports 10%, Biomass 6%, Solar 5%, Large Hydro <1%, Storage <1%
https://twitter.com/uk_coal/status/1126486631383478272
Graph below; more at the link.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 03:34:29 PM
It's all over the news. The biggest problem is overcoming the resistance of the population about the construction of new power lines.

The root cause of these protests is another.

You need to understand what these power lines are built for. They are built to connect the wind-rich north with the south where more energy is needed.

This is an extremely stupid approach. As i mentioned above, you better produce the power locally.

So why do the farmers protest really? They are the one group that profited most from the boom of decentralized renewables here? Those cables are good for renewables, right?

No! These cables are for the energy giants in Germany who would like to build huge offshore wind parks.

This is why there are protests. Not because people are against renewables. It's because they want to produce the power themselves, locally. As it is supposed to be.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 03:37:41 PM
So I'm left with my bottom line question (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2708.msg201596.html#msg201596) intact: what dataset are you using?

The greatest confidence is in the BP data. But in 2018 they will be only in the next month. Therefore, I limited myself to a preliminary assessment Global Carbon Budget.

Or do you think that in 2018 emissions have decreased?

This is very unlikely, since all the news speaks about the growth of world oil and gas production.

Moreover, stable growth is predicted for coal.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2019/03/06/global-coal-production-forecast-to-grow-to-2022/

Quote
Coal production is forecast to grow globally over the next three years despite major players scaling down their capacity.

That’s according to a new report, which predicts expansion of production capacity in India and Indonesia to boost output to 7.6 billion tonnes in 2022.

GlobalData suggests coal production in India, Indonesia and Australia is forecast to grow at compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of 10.9%, 3.9% and 2.3% respectively between 2018 and 2022, with the high growth in India helping reducing the nation’s reliance on imports.

More than 300 coal projects are expected to start operations between 2019 and 2022, out of which 92 are currently under construction and the remainder under various stages of development.

A total of 57 are in Australia, 55 in India, 54 in China, 30 in South Africa, 18 each in Canada and Indonesia and 15 in the US.

Global production of coal increased by 2.8% in 2017 after falling consecutively for three years and rose again by 0.1% last year – driven by India, Indonesia and Russia.

Vinneth Bajaj, Senior Mining Analyst at GlobalData said: “Despite growth in 2017 and 2018, production has yet to reach historic levels as several mining companies have withdrawn, either partially or completely, from the coal business.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 03:43:19 PM
This is why there are protests. Not because people are against renewables. It's because they want to produce the power themselves, locally. As it is supposed to be.

Are you sure this is possible? Sea windmills are characterized by the highest loading factor (up to 50%). In the south, very weak winds, and in the sun the loading factor does not exceed 20%.

Without cheap energy from the north, the inhabitants of southern Germany receive an even greater increase in electricity prices.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 04:09:00 PM
In Germany, you can choose your power provider freely. There are no differences between north and south in the price. There is only a difference in price when it comes to power provider.

Onshore wind is cheaper than offshore, so yes, you can also deploy the wind turbines and solar cells in the south.

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: crandles on May 28, 2019, 04:41:58 PM
So I'm left with my bottom line question (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2708.msg201596.html#msg201596) intact: what dataset are you using?

The greatest confidence is in the BP data. But in 2018 they will be only in the next month. Therefore, I limited myself to a preliminary assessment Global Carbon Budget.

BP do a statistical review of world energy and other such things.
This has a table with a note which says:

Quote
Notes: The carbon emissions above reflect only those through consumption of oil, gas and coal for combustion related activities, and are based on ‘Default CO2 Emissions Factors for
Combustion’ listed by the IPCC in its Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (2006). This does not allow for any carbon that is sequestered, for other sources of carbon emissions,
or for emissions of other greenhouse gases. Our data is therefore not comparable to official national emissions data.


So is the measure for this poll aimed at being anthropogenic CO2 emissions, excluding breathing but including CO2 which will come from methane leakage which breaks down to CO2 over time and also other anthropogenic emissions such as cement production, land use change like deforrestation etc?, or
 
anthropogenic ff related emissions (including leakages, flaring but not other emissions like cement land use change)?, or

anthropogenic ff consumption converted to CO2 (including or excluding CO2 from flaring, leakages etc)? or
... ???

Edit: BTW The total line for 2007 through 2017 says
Quote
Total World 30078.7 30381.8 29714.2 31074.2 31970.5 32317.8 32802.0 32886.8 32851.9 33017.6 33444.0
(Million tonnes of carbon dioxide)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 04:53:30 PM
So is the measure for this poll aimed at being anthropogenic CO2 emissions, excluding breathing but including CO2 which will come from methane leakage which breaks down to CO2 over time and also other anthropogenic emissions such as cement production, land use change like deforrestation etc?, or
 
anthropogenic ff related emissions (including leakages, flaring but not other emissions like cement land use change)?, or

anthropogenic ff consumption converted to CO2 (including or excluding CO2 from flaring, leakages etc)? or
... ???

This difference is minimal.

https://www.co2.earth/global-co2-emissions

Quote
Human Sources

Fossil fuel emissions (including cement production) accounted for about 91% of total CO2 emissions from human sources in 2014. This portion of emissions originates from coal (42%), oil (33%), gas (19%), cement (6%) and gas flaring (1%).

Changes in land use are responsible for about 9% of all global CO2 emissions.

In 2013, the largest national contributions to the net growth in total global emissions in 2013 were China (58% of the growth), USA (20% of the growth), India (17% of the growth), and EU28 (a decrease by 11% of the growth).

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/10/195/2018/essd-10-195-2018.pdf
Quote
Global CO2 emissions from cement production
We show that global process emissions in 2016 were 1.45 ± 0.20 GtCO2, equivalent to about 4 % of emissions from fossil fuels
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 28, 2019, 04:56:05 PM
If someone believes that the anthropocentric global emission of carbon dioxide has decreased in recent years with a different method of counting, then please show this data.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 05:49:39 PM
I did not think anyone believed CO2 emissions had peaked. Added to that is the decline in CO2 sequestration by the carbon sinks.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018
Quote
The research by the Global Carbon Project was launched at the UN climate summit in Katowice, Poland, where almost 200 nations are working to turn the vision of tackling climate change agreed in Paris in 2015 into action. The report estimates CO2 emissions will rise by 2.7% in 2018, sharply up on the plateau from 2014-16 and 1.6% rise in 2017.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/2019-carbondioxide-forecast
Quote
During 2019 Met Office climate scientists expect to see one of the largest rises in atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in 62 years of measurements.  The Met Office  CO₂ forecast is based on a combination of factors including rising anthropogenic emissions and a relative reduction in the uptake of carbon-dioxide by ecosystems due to tropical climate variability.

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 05:58:45 PM
Does "Damage to forests" count as (indirect) man-made CO2 emissions or as a reduction in carbon capture by CO2 sinks?

Quote
And Jos Barlow, of Lancaster University’s Environment Centre, warned that forest clearance in the tropics continued as a hazard.

“Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon increased to around 8,000 square kilometres in 2018, which is equivalent to losing a football pitch of forest every 80 seconds. This alone would result in CO2 emissions that exceed those of the UK over the same time period.”
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: nanning on May 28, 2019, 06:52:39 PM
I think that if damage means removal of the trees and then use them as fuel, it is direct human emissions (it goes into the air and not the ground, so outside the carbon cycle). If it is for e.g. furnature or floors, it is a reduction in carbon capture by CO2 sinks (the ground), and temporarily outside the carbon cycle.
If the forest clearance means the now bare ground will start being a carbon source (I'm no expert) then that should count as human emissions (land use change) I think.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on May 28, 2019, 06:54:07 PM
If someone believes that the anthropocentric global emission of carbon dioxide has decreased in recent years with a different method of counting, then please show this data.
Your PB data, according to Crandles, shows a decrease in 2009, but as Gerontocrat commented, [No one believes CO2 emissions have actually peaked](paraphrased), and didn't at that time, either.
Quote
BTW The total line for 2007 through 2017 says
Quote
Total World 30078.7 30381.8 29714.2 31074.2 31970.5 32317.8 32802.0 32886.8 32851.9 33017.6 33444.0
(Million tonnes of carbon dioxide)
I wouldn't consider the BP data to include all anthropocentric global emissions, so there is a disconnect here.  Oh well.  Certainly some interesting discussion on this thread.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: bluice on May 28, 2019, 07:53:11 PM

The real world says the auction prices for solar and wind power are dropping like a stone. The only thing that stopped CO2 emissions from already being in significant decline is lobbying and dirty money from the fossil fuel industries, and inertia in the automotive giants.
I’m not questioning the competitiveness of wind and solar by a megawatt produced. I’m questioning if and when renewables will be able to reduce co2 emissions.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 07:55:54 PM
With every kw/h generated with wind or solar, you already have reduced co2 emissions compared to any other energy source.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 28, 2019, 08:18:15 PM

The real world says the auction prices for solar and wind power are dropping like a stone. The only thing that stopped CO2 emissions from already being in significant decline is lobbying and dirty money from the fossil fuel industries, and inertia in the automotive giants.
I’m not questioning the competitiveness of wind and solar by a megawatt produced. I’m questioning if and when renewables will be able to reduce co2 emissions.
I voted 2020-2024, simply because the steep rise in renewables over the next 5 years (with luck) will be more than the increase in overall demand for energy (just) and the roll-out of EVs will be significant by 2024.

I was tempted to plump for 2024-2029.

BUT I still expect CO2 ppm to reach 450 in the early '30s. (Populist Presidents trashing the land and the oceans).


Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 28, 2019, 08:26:37 PM
I voted for early 20s because I still think we will run out of economically accessible fossil fuels in this century, so Peak Carbon will occur soon.
I hope.

So in a couple of years?  :o
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 28, 2019, 08:32:45 PM
Without cheap energy from the north, the inhabitants of southern Germany receive an even greater increase in electricity prices.

And you say this as if it's a bad thing?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 08:37:50 PM
Good point SH! Energy needs to be taxed way higher anyway. The revenue from this tax should go to subsidize renewables.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 28, 2019, 08:39:05 PM
If someone believes that the anthropocentric global emission of carbon dioxide has decreased in recent years with a different method of counting, then please show this data.
Your PB data, according to Crandles, shows a decrease in 2009, but as Gerontocrat commented, [No one believes CO2 emissions have actually peaked](paraphrased), and didn't at that time, either.
Quote
BTW The total line for 2007 through 2017 says
Quote
Total World 30078.7 30381.8 29714.2 31074.2 31970.5 32317.8 32802.0 32886.8 32851.9 33017.6 33444.0
(Million tonnes of carbon dioxide)
I wouldn't consider the BP data to include all anthropocentric global emissions, so there is a disconnect here.  Oh well.  Certainly some interesting discussion on this thread.

Pretty severe worldwide recession in 2009. Numbers are likely good.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 28, 2019, 08:40:43 PM
With every kw/h generated with wind or solar, you already have reduced co2 emissions compared to any other energy source.

 :o Renewables are growly rapidly but not yet fast enough to cover the general growth of energy consumption.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 28, 2019, 08:44:40 PM
I voted 2030 to 2039 and I hope I am pessimistic.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 28, 2019, 08:50:50 PM
Renewables are growly rapidly but not yet fast enough to cover the general growth of energy consumption.

Agreed.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: FrostKing70 on May 28, 2019, 09:29:29 PM
Unfortunately, I feel that 2030-2039 is too optimistic, I went with 2040-2049.

Too many emissions in the United States, with climate change denialists currently in office, as well as a large demand from a growing middle class around the world.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: NeilT on May 29, 2019, 01:14:38 AM
even in green Germany

Really?  Green Germany?

Annual Tonnes per capita (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita) CO2 for Germany is 8.9.  For the UK it is 6.5, for France it is 4.6 and Sweden is 4.5.

France is mostly driven by Nuclear power, which keeps the whole figure low.

Germany also has some of the most expensive energy in the EU.

If that is how we target success, god help us with failure.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 29, 2019, 03:42:07 AM
Without cheap energy from the north, the inhabitants of southern Germany receive an even greater increase in electricity prices.

And you say this as if it's a bad thing?

This can provoke unrest and rebellion. Many people do not understand that warming is dangerous. They believe that it is vice versa good (less heating costs, better navigation in the polar regions, more yields, less costs for warm clothes).

In this regard, the expensive green energy will lead to the loss of environmental parties. In this regard, I doubt that the peak of the emission will come in the 21st century.

Green energy is expensive (if you count not only generating capacity, but also power lines and energy storage infrastructure).
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 29, 2019, 06:49:08 AM
provoke unrest and rebellion

For how i see it, there is indeed some provoke unrest and rebellion free-standing at the moment. Young people around the world realize a carbon tax is needed and not implemented. They protest on Friday and they do not protest for lower energy prices.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on May 29, 2019, 07:12:08 AM
provoke unrest and rebellion

For how i see it, there is indeed some provoke unrest and rebellion free-standing at the moment. Young people around the world realize a carbon tax is needed and not implemented. They protest on Friday and they do not protest for lower energy prices.

Unfortunately, there are still many climate optimists who consider the problem of warming to be nonsense. Many of them are presidents of large countries (Trump, etc.). Others are directors of the most expensive films.

If you watch any fresh, expensive Hollywood movie about villains, most of them are struggling with global warming.

This is, for example, the Kingsman Security Service or the last part of the Resident Evil.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resident_Evil:_The_Final_Chapter

Quote
The Red Queen appears to Alice and explains that her program is in conflict, as she can never hurt an Umbrella employee but also must value human life. She plays a video of Isaacs explaining to Umbrella's executives a plan to release the T-virus, cleansing the world of humanity and its tendency of causing destructive catastrophes; many of the rich and powerful, including the company executives, are stored in cryogenic capsules in the Hive, with the intention of them rebuilding the world following the resulting apocalypse. The Red Queen warns Alice that someone in her group is helping Umbrella.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Hefaistos on May 29, 2019, 04:28:00 PM
1. BP has good analysts for future use of FF. You only need to read their latest report to realise that FF production and consumption will continue to rise for at least 10 years, maybe 20 years.

2. Lot's of catch up countries with enormous population growth in Africa and SE Asia will drive consumerism to new peaks. Poor people will not pay the extra dollar for green tech.

3. Lot's of methane in the air, and ever more so as natural gas replaces coal. Methane yields CO2.

I voted the 2040/49 span.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 31, 2019, 06:26:43 PM
1. BP has good analysts for future use of FF. You only need to read their latest report to realise that FF production and consumption will continue to rise for at least 10 years, maybe 20 years.

2. Lot's of catch up countries with enormous population growth in Africa and SE Asia will drive consumerism to new peaks. Poor people will not pay the extra dollar for green tech.

3. Lot's of methane in the air, and ever more so as natural gas replaces coal. Methane yields CO2.

I voted the 2040/49 span.

On point number 2, keep in mind that renewables are now cheaper than coal and quickly becoming cheaper than natural gas.  And the price of batteries continues to plummet as energy density continues to increase.  So new coal plants probably wont be built after 2025 and new natural gas plants probably wont be built after 2030.

Also, electric vehicles are projected to surpass internal combustion engine vehicles within the next ten years. 

I voted for 2024 to 2029, but I wouldn't be too surprised if we beat that by a few years and peaked in the early 2020s.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Klondike Kat on May 31, 2019, 07:55:06 PM

Also, electric vehicles are projected to surpass internal combustion engine vehicles within the next ten years. 


Not so sure about that.  A recent analysis estimated that as sales of EVs, they are expected to reach 20% only of total sales by 2030.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 31, 2019, 09:07:42 PM

Also, electric vehicles are projected to surpass internal combustion engine vehicles within the next ten years. 


Not so sure about that.  A recent analysis estimated that as sales of EVs, they are expected to reach 20% only of total sales by 2030.

Cross posted from "Cars, Cars,..."

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/05/30/iea-predicts-250-million-evs-on-the-road-by-2030/

Quote
What a difference a year makes. Last year, the International Energy Agency annual report predicted there would be 125 million EVs on the road worldwide by 2030. Its new 2019 report is out and it has doubled that prediction to 250 million electric vehicles by 2030, assuming the 25 nations that are part of the Clean Energy Ministerial EV30@30 program honor their commitments.

electric car sales If they do, that will mean 43 million new EVs are sold in 2030. If the more conservative “new policies” scenario prevails, 23 million EVs will be sold in 2030 and the total worldwide will reach 130 million.

Quote
In general, IEA predictions tend to be on the conservative side, so the size of the EV market in 2030 could be significantly larger than suggested by this year’s report. After all, the IEA’s own forecast doubled in just the past 12 months. Absent the US forcing the world to start driving coal burning vehicles, for EV advocates the future is bright indeed.
 


Around 70 million cars are produced annually now.  So 43 million EVs in 2030 would be taking more than half off the road.

The IEA report is pretty conservative.  I've seen other articles that indicate that once EVs reach price parity with ICEs, the demand for ICEs will plummet due to the advantages of owning EVs (lower maintenance, better performance, etc...)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Archimid on May 31, 2019, 09:13:19 PM
If if one million miles batteries are developed for EVs, and those EVs are driven a lot more, then a lot less EVs will be needed to replace ICEs, lowering emissions faster.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 01, 2019, 03:43:12 PM
Here is what it will take for EU to go net-zero by 2050:
https://www.dw.com/en/net-zero-by-2050-what-does-it-mean/a-48958487
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 01, 2019, 04:59:23 PM
CO2 emissions could hit a (temporary) peak in 2019.

Pourquoi?

China has internal structural problems, specifically
- the existing and growing loans to State Owned Enterprises, especially by Provincial and Local Governments, which never gets fixed,
- other ills hidden in the Shadow Banking System of which the West knows but a smidgeon.

India- Modi might have won a landslide victory but ...
https://qz.com/india/1630936/can-the-new-modi-cabinet-fix-the-indian-economy/
Modi inherits a troubled economy—all credit goes to him
Read it if you want to know.

EU - Germany Germany is the engine of EU economic growth and depends muchly on China's growth feeding demand for Germany's industrial products (e.g. machine tools)

Trump.
Bloomberg and others have already commented on how the sugar-rush from last year's tax cuts have evaporated,
The China US trade spat is morphing into war,

- and now for no good reason he is having a go at Mexico. This has really spooked the markets, fear has overcome greed. When the price of crude goes down (despite Iran, Libya, Venezuela) and the price of Gold and US Treasuries goes up on the same day you know a lot of people are running to safety.

Trump could be the trigger that pushes the world into recession. Given that the world is awash with more debt than 2009 on any measure you choose, failure to sort out this market decline and possible recession could take the world into another depression, in time for the November 2020 US Presidential election. (Couldn't happen to a nicer guy) Emoji for sarcasm required.

In other words, Trump's dumb bash at Mexico could be a tipping point for the world economy. Chaos theory and butterfly's wings etc. (Trump a butterfly? No. Butter? No. Lard? Yes. Fly? Yes.)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2019, 07:05:03 PM
Quote
CO2 emissions could hit a (temporary) peak in 2019.
...

In other words: a recession?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 01, 2019, 07:21:55 PM
Quote
CO2 emissions could hit a (temporary) peak in 2019.
...

In other words: a recession?
Possibly.
The longer Trump keeps throwing muptiple spanners in the works the more likely it will be.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 02, 2019, 08:50:39 PM
Quote
CO2 emissions could hit a (temporary) peak in 2019.
...

In other words: a recession?
Possibly.
The longer Trump keeps throwing muptiple spanners in the works the more likely it will be.

But don't take my word for it.

Economics
Morgan Stanley Sees Recession Within a Year If Trade War Gets Any Worse
By Will Mathis
2 June 2019, 14:42 BST
 Chief Economist Chetan Ahya warns of impact to global economy

 Investors underestimate threat of increased tariffs on China
Quote
Investors may still be underestimating the full risk to the global economy from a trade war, even after U.S. stocks capped the worst month of the year.

A recession could begin in as soon as nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates with its own countermeasures, according to Chetan Ahya, chief economist and global head of economics at Morgan Stanley.

The rift between the Trump administration and China has escalated as each side blames the other for the breakdown in talks. Over the weekend, Trump celebrated his trade policies and the recent move to impose tariffs on Mexican goods in response to illegal immigration.

Quote
When you are the “Piggy Bank” Nation that foreign countries have been robbing and deceiving for years, the word TARIFF is a beautiful word indeed! Others must treat the United States fairly and with respect - We are no longer the “fools” of the past!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 1, 2019

While stocks have declined, investors are still overlooking the impact the trade war will have on the global macroeconomic outlook, Ahya wrote in a note on Sunday. Growth will suffer as costs increase, customer demand slows and companies reduce capital spending, he said.

As the negative effects of the tariffs become more apparent, it may be too late for political action, according to Ahya. Policies to ease the impact are likely to be too reactive and slow to take effect.[/size]
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-02/morgan-stanley-sees-recession-within-a-year-if-trade-war-builds?srnd=premium-europe
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 09, 2019, 02:34:47 AM
Well, after years of decline, Fort Collins emissions rise:
https://www.coloradoan.com/story/news/2019/08/06/fort-collins-greenhouse-gas-emissions-climate-action-plan/1933522001/
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: rboyd on August 11, 2019, 11:58:51 PM
Yep, recession in 2020 and therefore probably a peak this year (2019). Then it depends on how fast, if at all, a proper recovery can be triggered. Oil demand may then be in a tug of war between EV's and other electrification (trains, short journey ships etc.) and economic recovery.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: philopek on August 12, 2019, 12:20:51 AM
Looking at Venus, perhaps never.

Perhaps it's just me but how does anyone assume that there will or HAS TO BE a peak?

There is nothing that i know of that would make a peak a sure thing.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 12:35:57 AM
If we're talking about anthropomorphic emissions, then yes there will certainly be a permanent peak at some point. It could be when the sun expands and melts us off the planet in ~ 5 billion years. But there are some very good reasons to think it will be much sooner. ;)

I don't think political action will ever get close to accomplishing it though. Either a complete collapse of civilization as we know it, or at least a massive population collapse. On the order of centuries, maybe sooner.

But if we're talking about when atmospheric CO2 will next peak, then on the order of millions of years.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2019, 12:49:18 AM
<snip>
But if we're talking about when atmospheric CO2 will next peak, then on the order of millions of years.


Why so?
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 12:57:56 AM
Because positive feedbacks will sustain carbon emissions and isn't this the time scale of carbon removal by normal carbon cycle processes?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 12, 2019, 04:38:17 AM
The ice stages these past few million years tended to cycle about 100,000 years: 10 interglacial, 90 icy K years.  I recall from Richard Alley's The Greatest Control Knob (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RffPSrRpq_g) - entertaining 2012 one-hour long lecture on the geological process - that the natural Earth processes to reduce CO2 by weathering of minerals (olivine, etc.) is on the order of 100,000 years.

a day at the park to a geologist
an afternoon lark to an astronomer
more than forever to a politician
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: crandles on August 12, 2019, 01:30:12 PM
Because positive feedbacks will sustain carbon emissions and isn't this the time scale of carbon removal by normal carbon cycle processes?

It may take 100,000 years to fully remove 93% a carbon spike back towards the prior level. However the peak could be inside 1 year. the 100,000 years is of slowly declining levels ie after the peak not before the peak.

You brought in carbon feedbacks and I am not sure how long we would expect these to go on for. I imagine there may be possibility of a temporary runaway effect which grows in size for a few decades. However, we generally think we are a long way off a true runaway effect.

Without invoking a true Venus like runaway effect, I don't see how you get millions of years before the peak.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/03/how-long-will-global-warming-last/
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Simon on August 12, 2019, 02:13:24 PM
What needs to happen is that the world stops increasing atmospheric co2 mainly by the cessation of fossil fuel burning by around 2040. Otherwise we will be tracking somewhere between rcp6 and rcp8.5 and human civilisation will experience a disaster well before the end of this century.

We use an energy production capacity of about 20TW and we can meet that with zero carbon emitting sources. The one which can be quickly installed in large numbers is solar PV. 400 000km2 on rooftops, pontoons and in sunny desert areas would provide well above half of our consumption. Buffering, storage and transport are only a slight technical problem. We can do it and governments will realise within a matter of months that they will have to.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 12, 2019, 04:37:45 PM
Simon:
Why within months, if they haven’t realized after decades?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 05:06:03 PM
The ice stages these past few million years tended to cycle about 100,000 years: 10 interglacial, 90 icy K years.

Sure, probably due to orbital variations (Milankovitch cycles), which causing very minor forcing over long periods (relative to anthropogenic emissions).

Quote
natural Earth processes to reduce CO2 by weathering of minerals (olivine, etc.) is on the order of 100,000 years

Fair enough. I was too bold in saying the wouldn't be a maximum for millions of years. On the other hand, I also don't think comparisons to the last million years are necessarily relevant anymore. There is mounting evidence that we are entering a new era now, so who knows what feedbacks there will be. Has it been studied? E.g., Apparently much of the atmospheric CO2 removal near glacial peaks was due to weathering of newly exposed continental shelves due to sea level drops. Obviously we won't be seeing any of that...

Quote
Our results also support the notion that the current CO2 concentration of more than 400 ppm is unprecedented over at least the past 3 Ma and that global temperature did not exceed the preindustrial value by more than 2°C during the Quaternary. In the context of future climate change, this implies that a failure in substantially reducing CO2 emissions to comply with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming well below 2°C will not only bring Earth’s climate away from Holocene-like conditions but also push it beyond climatic conditions experienced during the entire current geological period.
-- https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav7337
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 05:24:07 PM
It may take 100,000 years to fully remove 93% a carbon spike back towards the prior level. However the peak could be inside 1 year. the 100,000 years is of slowly declining levels ie after the peak not before the peak.

I stand corrected. I should have said orders of magnitude longer, not millions of years. And furthermore there are different types of peaks: some are sharp, while others are at start of a gradually sloping plateau. I guess I had this in mind...

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/65_Myr_Climate_Change.png)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: crandles on August 12, 2019, 05:43:15 PM
while others are at start of a gradually sloping plateau. I guess I had this in mind...


Fair enough.

I assume we take it that 5 or 10 million years of gradual slope towards Eocene Optimum is a long period of increasing forcing rather than a quick spike release. While correct on timescale following a spike release, I should admit it still means I haven't ruled out a million or 10 million year period of increased forcing being triggered. Shorter period seems more likely (many more fast wriggles) but still a possibility.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: crandles on August 12, 2019, 06:05:00 PM
E.g., Apparently much of the atmospheric CO2 removal near glacial peaks was due to weathering of newly exposed continental shelves due to sea level drops. Obviously we won't be seeing any of that...


Does it have to be "newly exposed"? & "won't be seeing any":

I thought the long term balance from weathering was that warmer weather means more and heavier rainfall causing more weathering which reduces the CO2 level and temperature. Colder weather means less weathering so volcanic action puts more CO2 into atmosphere than the weathering removes.

So we will be seeing more rock weathering, but it is a very slow feedback, as in millions of years to have much effect. Or have I got this wrong?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 06:33:59 PM
I thought the long term balance from weathering was that warmer weather means more and heavier rainfall causing more weathering which reduces the CO2 level and temperature. Colder weather means less weathering so volcanic action puts more CO2 into atmosphere than the weathering removes.

So we will be seeing more rock weathering, but it is a very slow feedback, as in millions of years to have much effect. Or have I got this wrong?

Makes sense: More rain + more carbon -> more carbonic acid weathering: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/CarbonCycle/page2.php.

Wrt. newly exposed shelves, I was thinking of the following. But it appears to not be well-established:
Quote
Elevated carbonate weathering on exposed shelves and enhanced nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean due to enhanced dust deposition also play important roles, especially toward glacial maxima.
-- https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/4/eaav7337
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Simon on August 12, 2019, 06:42:28 PM
Simon:
Why within months, if they haven’t realized after decades?
Whilst some governments have declared climate emergencies, they do not appear to realise they need to act upon it. Even the UK seems hell  bent upon a fracking programme for gas extraction. This needs to stop and a zero carbon energy infrastructure needs to be developed and quickly.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 06:50:07 PM
we will be tracking somewhere between rcp6 and rcp8.5

Right. Or higher, since IPCC projections are conservative. How could emissions stop or even substantially slow by 2040? So far there is almost no change (except for the worse), despite awareness of the problem for many decades.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 12, 2019, 07:13:47 PM
we will be tracking somewhere between rcp6 and rcp8.5

Right. Or higher, since IPCC projections are conservative. How could emissions stop or even substantially slow by 2040? So far there is almost no change (except for the worse), despite awareness of the problem for many decades.

Renewables are now cheaper than coal and natural gas.  Investments in renewables are far outpacing investments in fossil fuels.  In the USA, utility companies are shutting down coal plants and replacing them with wind and solar.

EVs are already cutting into demand for ICEs.  Within 10 years, EVs are projected to outsell ICEs.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2019, 07:51:00 PM
<snipped>

EVs are already cutting into demand for ICEs.  Within 10 years, EVs are projected to outsell ICEs.
Where and by whom?
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 12, 2019, 07:56:53 PM
<snipped>

EVs are already cutting into demand for ICEs.  Within 10 years, EVs are projected to outsell ICEs.
Where and by whom?
Terry

Projections are for EVs and hybrids to account for 7-8% of total sales by 2026.  A far cry from outselling.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-electric-forecast/outside-of-tesla-future-ev-sales-in-u-s-may-be-thin-for-most-brands-study-idUSKCN1SZ20I
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: crandles on August 12, 2019, 08:00:07 PM
<snipped>

EVs are already cutting into demand for ICEs.  Within 10 years, EVs are projected to outsell ICEs.
Where and by whom?
Terry

here is one
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikescott/2019/06/10/electric-models-to-dominate-car-sales-by-2040-wiping-out-13m-barrels-a-day-of-oil-demand/#260add6d342e

Quote
according to BloombergNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019.

The report shows that electrics will take up 57% of the global passenger car sales by 2040, with electric buses dominating their sector, holding 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date.

Edit: That is of course 21 years not 10.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 08:18:49 PM
The report shows that electrics will take up 57% of the global passenger car sales by 2040, with electric buses dominating their sector, holding 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date.

Good to see such a prediction (although I'll believe it when I see it). But even if it did come to pass, would it mean a reduction in emissions, even just from this sector (transportation), or would it only offset some of the increased driving? And how much of the energy used to build and charge these EVs will come from renewables? In the grand scheme of things, how much would this bend the emissions curve? Still, it's good to hope for some bending...

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2019, 09:03:38 PM
The report shows that electrics will take up 57% of the global passenger car sales by 2040, with electric buses dominating their sector, holding 81% of municipal bus sales by the same date.

Good to see such a prediction (although I'll believe it when I see it). But even if it did come to pass, would it mean a reduction in emissions, even just from this sector (transportation), or would it only offset some of the increased driving? And how much of the energy used to build and charge these EVs will come from renewables? In the grand scheme of things, how much would this bend the emissions curve? Still, it's good to hope for some bending...

https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change (https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change)


My hope is that E-Buses snag the subsidies, that fares drop precipitously or are canceled, and that people go about their daily commutes while enjoying the company of their neighbors. :)


A better quality of life - and it might even save some CO2 emissions.


If you fear your neighbors then flee back to your gated communities, pay the guards in a timely manner and withdraw from society. You may be astonished at how few morn your departure. ;)
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 12, 2019, 09:47:24 PM
<snipped>

EVs are already cutting into demand for ICEs.  Within 10 years, EVs are projected to outsell ICEs.
Where and by whom?
Terry

It actually happened in Norway earlier this year.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/04/world/norway-zero-emission-vehicles-trnd/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2019/04/04/world/norway-zero-emission-vehicles-trnd/index.html)

Quote
CNN) — Electric vehicles outsold gas and diesel models in Norway for the first time ever last month, accounting for 58.4% of all vehicle sales.

Norway is a leader in the adoption of zero-emission vehicles and the government has set an ambitious goal to stop selling new gas and diesel passenger cars and vans by 2025.

In March, 18,375 new cars were registered in the country and 10,732 of those were zero-emission vehicles, according to Norway's Road Traffic Information Council, or OFV. That's more double the number of zero-emission vehicles sold in March 2018.

Analysts are projecting it will happen by 2030 globally.

https://www.npr.org/2019/02/16/694303169/as-more-electric-cars-arrive-whats-the-future-for-gas-powered-engines (https://www.npr.org/2019/02/16/694303169/as-more-electric-cars-arrive-whats-the-future-for-gas-powered-engines)

Quote
"Probably in the mid-2020s time frame, it becomes comparable or cheaper to actually buy and operate an EV than an internal combustion vehicle," says Sam Abuelsamid, an auto analyst with Navigant.

Felipe Munoz, a global analyst at JATO, predicts electric vehicles will outsell conventional ones by 2030.

Other analysts say this change could be slower — but most agree it is coming.

Quote
It could also be motivated by consumer choices, argues Dan Neil, automotive columnist at The Wall Street Journal.

Electric vehicles "are such better machines than the machines they're replacing," he says, that consumers might choose to retire their gas guzzlers long before the end of the vehicles' useful lives.

"Just like plasma TVs," he says. "A lot of plasma TVs didn't see the useful end of their lives before they were replaced by much cheaper, but also much better, LCD screens."

Quote
The transformation of the auto industry is real, experts say — and happening much faster than skeptics would have predicted just a few years ago.

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 12, 2019, 09:52:52 PM
Bloomberg New Energy Finance also projects EVs outselling ICEs by 2030.

https://thinkprogress.org/gas-cars-electric-vehicles-battery-price-99d1f99ab987/ (https://thinkprogress.org/gas-cars-electric-vehicles-battery-price-99d1f99ab987/)

Quote
Plunging battery prices are bringing the age of gasoline-powered cars to an end faster than anyone expected, according to a new report from Bloomberg NEF (BNEF). That means peak oil demand will also arrive sooner than expected — which in turn means ambitious climate goals will be more affordable than previously thought.

“Sales of internal combustion passenger vehicles have already peaked, and may never recover,” BNEF’s Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 finds.

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are now seriously eating into internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales — and that trend is projected to accelerate in the coming years.

Quote
Other findings in BNEF’s chart-filled report are equally astonishing. For instance, the EV adoption rate is so rapid that EVs will reach 50% of new car sales in both China and Europe around 2030 — at which point EVs will make up some 40% of new U.S. passenger vehicle sales.

Quote
In three years, EVs will actually be cheaper up front than combustion vehicles, which will make EVs the increasingly attractive option. After all, they are already superior to gasoline cars in many key respects: EVs have faster acceleration, lower maintenance costs, zero tailpipe emissions, and a much lower per-mile fueling cost than petrol cars , even when running on carbon-free fuel.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 13, 2019, 03:11:25 AM
For Ken's eyes only


https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/)


And that was their best quarter ever.
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 13, 2019, 07:01:46 PM
For Ken's eyes only


https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/)


And that was their best quarter ever.
Terry

It's paywalled.  I can't see the content.  Care to share?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 13, 2019, 07:27:58 PM
In 2018, JP Morgan was projecting that EVs would grow to 30% market share in 2025 and 60% by 2030.

https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-vehicles (https://www.jpmorgan.com/global/research/electric-vehicles)

Quote
Automakers are preparing to phase out cars powered solely by internal combustion engines (ICEs) as governments look to tackle fuel emissions. The growth in electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) is climbing and by 2025, EVs and HEVs will account for an estimated 30% of all vehicle sales. Comparatively, in 2016 just under 1 million vehicles or 1% of global auto sales came from plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs).1

By 2025, J.P. Morgan estimates this will rise close to 8.4 million vehicles or a 7.7% market share. While this jump is significant, it doesn’t compare to the kind of growth expected in HEVs - cars that combine a fuel engine with electric elements. This sector is forecast to swell from just 3% of global market share to more than 25 million vehicles or 23% of global sales over the same period.1 This leaves pure-ICE vehicles with around 70% of the market share in 2025, with this falling to around 40% by 2030, predominantly in emerging markets.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 13, 2019, 07:47:44 PM
The linked article discusses why projections for future EV market share vary so widely.

https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/ (https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/)

Quote
The only thing sure about electric cars is they will eclipse the internal combustion engine—one day. The timing, however, is the topic of fierce and wildly divergent speculation. At the moment, only one in 250 cars on the road is electric. Battery electric cars comprise 2.1% of new global auto sales (about 2 million passenger vehicles). Electric vehicle (EV) sales should hit 2.7 million in 2019 even as the broader auto market declines (paywall).

But guesses about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map. Quartz assembled several of the top projections to gauge the size of the discrepancy. Optimists such as Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) in its 2019 Electric Vehicle Outlook report see the total EV stock soaring to 548 million by 2040, or about 32% of the world’s passenger vehicles. Bears, such as ExxonMobil and the oil cartel OPEC, put that day far into the future. Exxon’s most recent predictions, the most pessimistic (or optimistic?), show the global stock of EVs reaching only 162 million by 2040. That’s 70% lower than BNEF’s base case.

Quote
Two assumptions make all the difference in EV adoption models, says Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF. The first is price parity. EV’s sticker price is expected to exceed conventional cars’ until the mid-2020s. Right now, electric vehicles are more expensive than conventional counterparts thanks to their pricey batteries and relatively small EV manufacturing capacity. No one is sure how far battery costs, the biggest expense in making EVs, can fall (they’ve already dropped 85% since 2010), and when EVs will achieve the same economies of scale as combustion engines have secured over the past century. The price of oil changes the total cost of ownership as well (New York City says EVs’ lower fuel and maintenance costs already makes them the cheapest option for its fleet).

The article assumes that EVs wont reach price-parity with ICEs until the mid-2020.  However, I've seen several sources that project that will happen in 2022 or even sooner.  Battery prices continue to decline and they're the major factor in the up-front cost of an EV.

Quote
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), America’s official source for energy statistics, has made one of the biggest adjustments to forecasts. Since its original one in 2011, the agency has raised its projections for EV stocks in the US by a factor of 20. Price played a big role. As recently as 2017, the EIA was predicting a $35,200 EV wouldn’t arrive until 2025. Several arrived last year.

The EIA is notorious for underestimating the installation rate of renewables too.  They make the same mistake that posters on this website frequently do, looking at the past few years when renewables were more expensive than fossil fuels and not looking at current or projecting future behaviors based on renewables being cheaper than fossil fuels.  In this case, it's gasoline powered cars versus battery electric vehicles.  When the costs for BEVs is cheaper than the cost of ICEs, the demand for ICEs is going to crash.

https://thinkprogress.org/electric-vehicles-gas-cars-cost-31a68bcdcee1/ (https://thinkprogress.org/electric-vehicles-gas-cars-cost-31a68bcdcee1/)

Quote
Within a few years, electric vehicles (EVs) will be superior to gasoline powered cars in every respect.

In fact, leading experts now predict that EVs will soon have a lower upfront cost to go with their many superior attributes, which include a much lower operating cost and much faster acceleration.

But that means if you buy a new gas-powered car, SUV, or truck in the near future, you may find it increasingly obsolete and difficult to resell.

Quote
“During the reasonable service life of any vehicle I buy today, I expect the demand for IC-powered vehicles will drop to practically zero, equivalent to the current market penetration of flip phones,” Neil predicts in his column. “No one will want them.”
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 13, 2019, 08:28:12 PM
When EV's reach price parity with ICEs, an important factor affecting the demand for ICEs will kick in, the Osborne Effect.  The linked article explains the Osborne Effect and how it will impact the auto industry in the next decade.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/ (https://cleantechnica.com/2019/02/25/the-osborne-effect-on-the-auto-industry/)

Quote
A perfect storm is brewing above the automotive industry. Three hardly grasped phenomena are working together. Just like a real storm, when the conditions align in the best/worst way, we get a devastating superstorm. These phenomena (or events) are the Osborne effect of delayed demand, the technology (cost) curve of battery prices and other technology, and the S-curve that describes market acceptance of new technologies.

These phenomena are often observed and not very difficult to understand in theory, but our mind is not wired to comprehend the implications. Our mind visualizes simple linear development, direct cause and effect. Together, these three create chain reactions of exponential and logarithmic trends and our mind is simply not able to understand the consequences.

Quote
At some point relatively soon, the car market will move from having about a dozen viable electric cars to one in which there will be three dozen of them. Most of the new cars will be a better value proposition than what is now on the market. These new entrants will garner a lot of press coverage and word-of-mouth buzz.

The effect will likely be that fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will not just be something that only the nerds and very early adopters know about. It will become real for a large portion of the public. Realizing that far better cars are just around the corner, they just have to wait a few more moments for them.

Waiting for the next version of the product you want to buy is called the Osborne effect. According to Wikipedia: “The Osborne effect is a social phenomenon of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company’s announcing a future product prematurely.”

It's a long article that also describes technology cost curves and shows how quickly electric drivetrains are dropping in price. The article than combines the Osborne Effect with the technology cost curves to get the following graph:

(https://cleantechnica.com/files/2019/02/Osborne-Effect-Auto-Industry.png)

Quote
A rule of thumb for S-curve disruptions of the market is that it will take about as long to reach 1% as it will take to go from 1% to the top of the curve. That first part is often not shown, but for those following the market for years, and realizing that we crossed the 1% threshold in 2018, it is included. If anybody is not scared of this graph, read on to enter a nightmare scenario.

The demand for fossil fuel cars is the red line, the wildfire of public perception. The blue line is the carmakers’ reaction to the demand. It is way too optimistic — carmakers can’t scale this fast — but the function I use for S-curves draws it like this. Also, Elon Musk and Cathie Wood (CEO of ARK Invest) mentioned even more optimistic numbers for 2023 in a recent podcast.

Auto sales have been down this year.  Is it the beginning of the Osborne Effect?

https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-international-worldwide-car-sales/ (https://www.best-selling-cars.com/international/2019-latest-international-worldwide-car-sales/)

Quote
January to June 2019: During the first half year of 2019, car sales were lower in all major car markets in the world with the exception of Brazil where sales increased by 11%. The Japanese car market was flat while the US and Russian markets contracted by around 2%. In the European Union new passenger vehicle registrations were down by 3% but remained at relatively high levels. In India, new car sales during the first six months of 2019 were down by a tenth while China remained the world’s largest new car market despite a 14% contraction.

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 14, 2019, 02:02:42 PM
For Ken's eyes only


https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/)


And that was their best quarter ever.
Terry

It's paywalled.  I can't see the content.  Care to share?


Ouch
pulling it up again lead me to a paywall!


What it showed was a chart of

"Selected automakers' U.S. YTD market share in 2nd quarter 2019, by key manufacturer"
These began with
1  -General motors at 16.58%
2  -Ford Motor Company at 14.44%
3  -Toyota Motor Corporation at 13.75%

followed eventually by

13 - Tesla at 1.2%

From some of the charts floating about it's likely that some believed that Tesla held a much larger share of the American and of course the World markets.


When seen against other auto companies (sometimes referred to as failing or failed ICE companies) it's evident that the 1.2% share has a way to go before it becomes a major player.

The 12 companies that sold more cars into the American market as far as I know have recently been or are now profitable. Tesla by comparison has never had a profitable year, so we're comparing the number of cars that others can sell at a profit against the number of cars that Tesla has sold dumped at a loss.

I'm sorry re. change to a paywalled site. I eventually located a copy that I'd kept open or I'd have been locked out myself.

It had been a bar chart that was much more impressive than my synopsis.
A damn shame that it's gone because it provided a quick visual to point out the relative size of the American market's players.
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 14, 2019, 02:57:31 PM
The combined hybrid/electric vehicle market share was just over 9% in 2013.  That has risen to about 11.5% today.  Not quite the meteoric rise that some predicted.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 14, 2019, 03:21:28 PM
Unfortunately, low oil prices allow most people to make a short term economic decision to continue to buy ICE vehicles.   The change is coming, but slowly.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 14, 2019, 03:57:38 PM
You should hear the rhetoric here in America. Any progress that was made toward environmental awareness up to 2016 is now rolled back by a decade at least. I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 14, 2019, 07:22:37 PM
For Ken's eyes only


https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/ (https://www.statista.com/statistics/343162/market-share-of-major-car-manufacturers-in-the-united-states/)


And that was their best quarter ever.
Terry

It's paywalled.  I can't see the content.  Care to share?


Ouch
pulling it up again lead me to a paywall!


What it showed was a chart of

"Selected automakers' U.S. YTD market share in 2nd quarter 2019, by key manufacturer"
These began with
1  -General motors at 16.58%
2  -Ford Motor Company at 14.44%
3  -Toyota Motor Corporation at 13.75%

followed eventually by

13 - Tesla at 1.2%

From some of the charts floating about it's likely that some believed that Tesla held a much larger share of the American and of course the World markets.


When seen against other auto companies (sometimes referred to as failing or failed ICE companies) it's evident that the 1.2% share has a way to go before it becomes a major player.

The 12 companies that sold more cars into the American market as far as I know have recently been or are now profitable. Tesla by comparison has never had a profitable year, so we're comparing the number of cars that others can sell at a profit against the number of cars that Tesla has sold dumped at a loss.

I'm sorry re. change to a paywalled site. I eventually located a copy that I'd kept open or I'd have been locked out myself.

It had been a bar chart that was much more impressive than my synopsis.
A damn shame that it's gone because it provided a quick visual to point out the relative size of the American market's players.
Terry


While Tesla dominates the electric vehicle market in the US today (with about 67% of EVs sold in the US), many companies are designing EVs that will launch within a few years.

And the market share of EVs is growing rapidly as the following article shows.

https://thedriven.io/2019/08/09/tesla-model-3-dominates-us-electric-vehicles-sales-growth-in-2019/ (https://thedriven.io/2019/08/09/tesla-model-3-dominates-us-electric-vehicles-sales-growth-in-2019/)

Quote
Overall, the US EV market increased by 23% compared to the first half of 2018, with 72% of all plug-in sales being pure battery electric.

Quote
While the premium-priced Model S and X certainly broke the mould for the auto industry as a whole, it would seem that the more affordable Model 3 is simply out of the league of other electric vehicle models in its class.

Its introduction to the US market by Tesla in July 2017, it has driven growth of the American EV market ever since, with 140,000 units sold in the USA in 2018.

However, while 2018 saw a distinct jump in EV sales in the US (from 1.2% market share and approximately 200,000 sold in 2017 to 2.1% market share and about 358,000 units sold in 2018), EV-Volumes predicts that 2019 will not see a similar increase.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2019, 08:00:26 PM
I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.

Honestly curious. Why would that be?

I think it is clear that long term fossil fuel will increase in price. Peak oil is a thing if we talk 3 decades. On the other hand, you have research showing there will be massive increases in efficiency when it comes to renewables. Electric power will, compared to fossils, only become cheaper. How will it be possible to afford an ICE car?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 14, 2019, 08:09:09 PM
I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.
Honestly curious. Why would that be?
No data in this case. Just based on my perception of sentiment in the States (as I implied). I agree that if it becomes much cheaper to get an EV than an ICE, the obvious would happen. But will it? I've been hearing talk of peak oil for several decades now...

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/Hubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_1956.png)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2019, 08:33:04 PM
Quote
But will it?

Well, renewables are getting cheaper. Fossils not!
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 14, 2019, 08:37:33 PM
I doubt electrics will be anything more than a niche market for another 30+ years.
Honestly curious. Why would that be?
No data in this case. Just based on my perception of sentiment in the States (as I implied). I agree that if it becomes much cheaper to get an EV than an ICE, the obvious would happen. But will it? I've been hearing talk of peak oil for several decades now...

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f2/Hubbert_Upper-Bound_Peak_1956.png)
This is what I think is going on.

There is physical peak oil and price peak oil.

Physical Peak Oil is all about annual production capacity, avoiding the over-extraction that happened in the US especially in the 20s and 30s.

Talk about it appeared 10 or so (?) years ago. An analyst looked at known depletion rates of existing world oil fields and applied that as well to estimates of technically recoverable deposits to estimate future maximum annual production levels. Made sense at the time.

But along came new technology to exploit the Tar Sands and fracking of the Texas Permian et al. Now there are questions on whether those additional unconventional resources are close to maximum  annual production levels, which combined with depletion of conventional fields could reduce overall production capacity. If there is confirmatory data about this, I guess its kept under wraps.

The Peak Price of Oil is the demand / supply equation. EVs when adopted on a large scale would certainly be a negative price push.

LNG
I think it is Shell who have made it policy to shift from oil and concentrate on LNG. Adoption of **Solar and Wind are the threats to LNG prices. There is enough LNG in the ground to fry the world several times. BUT, there are rumours on LNG production from fracking in the USA - too many wells, too quick extraction - Physical Peak LNG a threat to Trump's World Energy Dominance (part of the Masters of the Universe Foreign Policy?) ?
EDIT ** plus utility-scale batteries

All this gets hidden by noise - Wars & Rumours of Wars.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 14, 2019, 08:45:17 PM
But along came new technology to exploit the Tar Sands and fracking of the Texas Permian et al. Now there are questions on whether those additional unconventional resources are close to maximum  annual production levels, which combined with depletion of conventional fields could reduce overall production capacity. If there is confirmatory data about this, I guess its kept under wraps.

I agree with what you said Gerontocrat and want to add, the low hanging fruits are gone. Oil production will be more expensive in the future. You always have to drill deeper or move mountains or whatnot.

Today it's done due to the massive subsidies. Who knows how long people allow this to happen. And then the oil industry goes poof anyway.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 14, 2019, 09:15:36 PM
All good points, both. There is a lot of uncertainty and missing information. Gerontocrat's point about new sources / extraction technologies and Blumenkraft's about low hanging fruit are connected. The low hanging fruit of traditional extraction may be almost picked (except for thus-far protected areas -- including in the Arctic -- that are not immune from pilfering from the likes of Trump), but who knows how much additional LNG or other yet-to-be discovered sources there are?

Hopefully none. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 21, 2019, 04:12:09 AM
Quote
No way out? The double-bind in seeking global prosperity alongside mitigated climate change

Timothy J. Garrett
(Submitted on 3 Oct 2010 (v1), last revised 6 Jan 2012 (this version, v3))

In a prior study, I introduced a simple economic growth model designed to be consistent with general thermodynamic laws. Unlike traditional economic models, civilization is viewed only as a well-mixed global whole with no distinction made between individual nations, economic sectors, labor, or capital investments. At the model core is an observationally supported hypothesis that the global economy's current rate of primary energy consumption is tied through a constant to a very general representation of its historically accumulated wealth. Here, this growth model is coupled to a linear formulation for the evolution of globally well-mixed atmospheric CO2 concentrations. While very simple, the coupled model provides faithful multi-decadal hindcasts of trajectories in gross world product (GWP) and CO2. Extending the model to the future, the model suggests that the well-known IPCC SRES scenarios substantially underestimate how much CO2 levels will rise for a given level of future economic prosperity. For one, global CO2 emission rates cannot be decoupled from wealth through efficiency gains. For another, like a long-term natural disaster, future greenhouse warming can be expected to act as an inflationary drag on the real growth of global wealth. For atmospheric CO2 concentrations to remain below a "dangerous" level of 450 ppmv, model forecasts suggest that there will have to be some combination of an unrealistically rapid rate of energy decarbonization and nearly immediate reductions in global civilization wealth. Effectively, it appears that civilization may be in a double-bind. If civilization does not collapse quickly this century, then CO2 levels will likely end up exceeding 1000 ppmv; but, if CO2 levels rise by this much, then the risk is that civilization will gradually tend towards collapse.

https://arxiv.org/abs/1010.0428
https://www.ecoshock.org/2014/07/the-big-picture-like-it-or-not.html


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpRGMTPLd74
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 21, 2019, 05:34:09 PM
But along came new technology to exploit the Tar Sands and fracking of the Texas Permian et al. Now there are questions on whether those additional unconventional resources are close to maximum  annual production levels, which combined with depletion of conventional fields could reduce overall production capacity. If there is confirmatory data about this, I guess its kept under wraps.

I agree with what you said Gerontocrat and want to add, the low hanging fruits are gone. Oil production will be more expensive in the future. You always have to drill deeper or move mountains or whatnot.

Today it's done due to the massive subsidies. Who knows how long people allow this to happen. And then the oil industry goes poof anyway.

Just to note sth ( from Forbes) but that information is available everywhere...

Quote
The top six “subsidies” included in the $10-$18.5 billion estimates are as follows:

Master Limited Partnerships ($3.9 billion “subsidy”) – Ending the MLP “subsidy” would result in MLP’s being considered corporations that must be taxed before their distributions are passed along to shareholders. Therefore, any MLP income would be taxed at the corporate level and then again at the dividend level. Distributions to shareholders would be impacted substantially. Preventing double taxation is not a subsidy. MLPs also exist for Real Estate and other industries. Furthermore, the “subsidy” affects people across the spectrum from Pensioners, 401ks holders, to widows and orphans – hardly a “subsidy” for the oil and gas industry.

Intangible Drilling Costs ($3.5 billion “subsidy” – low estimate is $780 million) – Intangible Drilling Costs are essentially the cost of drilling a new well that have no salvageable value. Currently, most exploration companies are allowed to deduct 100% of the costs in the year they are incurred with the majors able to deduct 70% of the costs immediately with the remaining 30% amortized over 5 years. In what world would money spent that may or may not be recovered be capitalized as an asset?

Royalty Payment Reductions on Federal Lands ($2.2 billion “subsidy”) While paying no royalties on some offshore plots and reduced royalties in some regions might be considered a break by many. The incomes derived from operations are taxed at the same levels as any other income – hardly a “subsidy”.

Depletion Allowance ($1 billion subsidy – low estimate is $900 million) The depletion allowance allows companies to treat reserves in the ground as a capitalized asset that may be written down by 15% per year. The government only allows the “subsidy” for independent producers. Integrated oil companies such as Exxon, BP etc. are not allowed the exemption. Companies across the US are allowed a depreciation deduction for taxation purposes. The oil & gas industry should not be an exception.

Domestic Manufacturing Deduction ($1.7 billion per year – low estimate is $574 million) – Congress passed the tax break in 2004 to encourage manufacturing companies to maintain their operations in the US. The tax break has been extended to oil & gas companies and allows them to deduct 9% of their income from operations. Critics charge that companies would not leave for a lower tax rate. Ever looked at how much cheaper it would be to operate a refinery in another country? Furthermore, the tax break extends to companies across multiple business segments – not just the oil & gas sector.


Foreign Tax Credit ($900 million) The tax break allows US companies to deduct taxes paid in foreign countries from profits when the money is returned to the US. Of all the tax breaks, calling the Foreign Tax Credit a subsidy for the oil & gas industry has to be the most egregious. The US Federal Government allows any corporation doing business outside of the US the same exception.

Several “subsidies” totaling an additional $3 billion combine to complete the $18.5 billion estimate.

In addition to the $18.5 billion in “subsidies” states also grant an additional $3 billion in tax breaks to the oil & gas sector that can be considered subsides. Politicians and political pundits tend to lump state and federal subsidies together. Shockingly, nobody holds them accountable for their misstatements. In addition to the “subsidies” given to oil & gas company operations, politicians attempt to lump in an additional $16 billion in consumption incentives to the oil & gas industry. Consumption incentives range from direct subsidies to low income households for heating oil to tax breaks for farmers, and the US military. It seems that these should be classified as breaks for farmers and the military rather than to oil & gas industry. To somehow get to the $52 billion total, activists then lump in the military costs to defend shipping lanes and pipelines in the Middle East.

Now let’s analyze what the oil & gas sector pays in taxes. In 2012 the top two corporations paying federal taxes in the US were ExxonMobil and Chevron paying a combined total of $45.2 billion. On average, the industry pays a 45% tax rate when all state, federal, and foreign taxes are totaled up. By comparison the Healthcare Industry pays a total rate of 35% and the Pharmaceuticals pay an estimated rate of 21%. Based upon these numbers it’s hard to believe which business sector is criticized the most for “subsidies”.

I only see a couple of subsidies that are not claimed by other industries too..although I am sure mining of all shorts has similar ones.

So which are the massive subsidies that oil and gas industry has ??
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 21, 2019, 06:00:27 PM
First of all, DrTskoul, why don't you link the source? It sounds awfully like FF propaganda to me.

Anyway, here are some numbers:

Quote
A 2016 IMF working paper (not necessarily representing the views of the IMF) included the costs of environmental externalities in their definition of subsidies and concluded that global fossil fuel subsidies were $5.3 trillion in 2015, which represented 6.5% of global GDP.

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies#Environmental_externalities



You might also read this section >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies#Fossil_fuel_subsidies



Quote
$400bn in global fossil fuel consumption subsidies, twice that for renewables

Link >> https://energypost.eu/400bn-in-global-fossil-fuel-consumption-subsidies-twice-that-for-renewables/



Quote
Just 10% of fossil fuel subsidy cash 'could pay for green transition'

Link >> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/aug/01/fossil-fuel-subsidy-cash-pay-green-energy-transition



Quote
Update On Recent Progress In Reform Of Inefficient Fossil Fuel Subsidies That Encourage Wasteful Consumption

https://www.oecd.org/fossil-fuels/publication/update-progress-reform-fossil-fuel-subsidies-g20.pdf

Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 21, 2019, 06:17:09 PM
I found it by searching at google from forbes.com

What are the environmental externalities of agriculture, forestry, building construction? Why aren't those counted for those sectors ? Do you think they are smaller ?  FF demand and use does not happen in vaccum or forced on to people.  The whole system of modern life is entangled with energy use. And usually the cheaper source wins.  Make FF more expensive and other sources will be used instead, preferably renewable. In the mean time if a tax subsidy is available to many companies why do FF ones have to be exempt from those? You want to count externalities as cost do it for all...



Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 21, 2019, 07:18:36 PM
Yes, do it for all, i agree! This is why i'm in favor of a $150 (+15%/year) carbon tax transferred directly into subsidies for renewables. This is how you accelerate the energy transition.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Mozi on August 21, 2019, 07:36:43 PM
Forbes allows any person to become a 'contributor' and post pretty much anything they want to. Just because an article appears on their website does not mean it's any good at all.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 21, 2019, 08:24:54 PM
That may be so, but I have seen similar numbers to what Dr T has posted.  They look accurate to me.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 21, 2019, 08:33:57 PM
Forbes allows any person to become a 'contributor' and post pretty much anything they want to. Just because an article appears on their website does not mean it's any good at all.

The 'contributor' is what i'm interested in. I guess it's some guy from a think tank financed by Koch industries. ;)
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 21, 2019, 10:43:41 PM
And even if they do peak, how long before any substantial reduction?
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: TerryM on August 22, 2019, 05:22:00 AM
^^
Not terribly encouraging.
BTW
When the green and the yellow reach say 75% of the mix, I'll begrudgingly accept that EV's should be subsidized because they'll be a positive force to reduce GHG.
Eliminating coal is also needed.
Terry
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 22, 2019, 01:06:10 PM
Yes, do it for all, i agree! This is why i'm in favor of a $150 (+15%/year) carbon tax transferred directly into subsidies for renewables. This is how you accelerate the energy transition.

It has to be transferred back to the people....otherwise it is a very regressive tax. Poor and middle class spend higher percentage of their income to energy use.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 22, 2019, 01:43:16 PM
Yes, do it for all, i agree! This is why i'm in favor of a $150 (+15%/year) carbon tax transferred directly into subsidies for renewables. This is how you accelerate the energy transition.

It has to be transferred back to the people....otherwise it is a very regressive tax. Poor and middle class spend higher percentage of their income to energy use.

Good point.  One of the oft quoted oil subsidies is the Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP).  This program provides funding for low income homes to meet certain energy needs.  It amounts to around $3 billion annually in the U.S. for indirect payments to the poor.  Calling this program a subsidy, and lumping with all the others is quite misleading.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: oren on August 22, 2019, 03:23:26 PM
I am not impressed by that biased Forbes text, which appears to be written by an oil lobbyist.

Quote
Depletion Allowance ($1 billion subsidy – low estimate is $900 million) The depletion allowance allows companies to treat reserves in the ground as a capitalized asset that may be written down by 15% per year. The government only allows the “subsidy” for independent producers. Integrated oil companies such as Exxon, BP etc. are not allowed the exemption. Companies across the US are allowed a depreciation deduction for taxation purposes. The oil & gas industry should not be an exception.
That is complete nonsense.  In other industries the asset is built up by investment, and then allowed depreciation. That causes expenses to be deferred for tax purposes.
Here we have the investment treated as expense, the asset ia magically acquired with no tax implication, and then the loss from its depreciation is suddenly deductible. It's a crying-out-loud subsidy and let no one be suckered.

Example:
I build a factory, with $1B cost. Building expenses are not deductible, but the asset depreciates over a number of years.
I drill an oil field for $1B. The expense is deductible. I then claim the field is worth $1B based on its reserves, and expense its depreciation although I have never bought it, accounting-wise.

Quote
Domestic Manufacturing Deduction ($1.7 billion per year – low estimate is $574 million) – Congress passed the tax break in 2004 to encourage manufacturing companies to maintain their operations in the US. The tax break has been extended to oil & gas companies and allows them to deduct 9% of their income from operations. Critics charge that companies would not leave for a lower tax rate. Ever looked at how much cheaper it would be to operate a refinery in another country? Furthermore, the tax break extends to companies across multiple business segments – not just the oil & gas sector.
The refinery is a misleading argument. We are talking about domestic drilling operations, which you can't operate elsewhere. Such a tax break should only be given (if at all) to companies actually choosing their manufacturing location.
Besides, oil&gas is not manufacturing, it's extraction.
Total sham, a pure tax gift to such companies.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 22, 2019, 03:46:45 PM

The refinery is a misleading argument. We are talking about domestic drilling operations, which you can't operate elsewhere. Such a tax break should only be given (if at all) to companies actually choosing their manufacturing location.
Besides, oil&gas is not manufacturing, it's extraction.
Total sham, a pure tax gift to such companies.

While I agree with your post in general, this point should be clarified.  Oil refineries are, indeed, considered manufacturing.  Until just a few years ago, export of crude out of the US was prohibited.  The oil lobby changed that, and now the US exports crude to offshore refineries.  This raised costs for US consumers while reducing the US manufacturing base of employment.

It would be best to reinstate the crude export ban and forbid this particular manufacturing from tax breaks.  FF industry would cry foul, but they shouldn't get the tax break as long as their product causes harm to the environment that they're not otherwise having to pay for.  When they pay a fair carbon fee, then they can get this tax break.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 22, 2019, 10:26:50 PM
Yes, do it for all, i agree! This is why i'm in favor of a $150 (+15%/year) carbon tax transferred directly into subsidies for renewables. This is how you accelerate the energy transition.

It has to be transferred back to the people....otherwise it is a very regressive tax. Poor and middle class spend higher percentage of their income to energy use.

Every government must protect the poor, of course. And if a carbon tax affects the poor, there needs to be compensation. Here i agree 100%.

As for the middle class, it's not expensive to consume less - on the contrary. Actually, this is the whole point of a carbon tax. We need to bring CO2 consumption down.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: petm on August 23, 2019, 01:18:40 AM
Less consumption is not politically possible under our current economic system.
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 23, 2019, 01:19:25 AM
Less CO2 emissions per unit of consumption however is...
Title: Re: When will CO2 emissions peak?
Post by: nanning on August 23, 2019, 06:32:25 AM
Less consumption is not politically possible under our current economic system.

Sorry to disagree petm.
I think: When the 'middle class' and the poor would live, or strife to live, like me (very low consumption, no direct emissions, high-quality local (food)products), consumption does a nosedive and a change in politics and the economic system follow.

The economic system is not fixed, it is fabricated by lying and manipulating neo-liberalistic capitalism.
The perverse addiction to profits and grown-ups' life of accumulation must end. Why profits? Stop with more, more, more.
People power! Or... is there no people power? Are people like blind sheep? Have people no capacity for self-determination (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-determination_theory)? In that case I do agree with you petm. :)