Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Tom_Mazanec on June 03, 2019, 12:49:17 PM

Title: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 03, 2019, 12:49:17 PM
What effect of AGW is the worst specific one of all?
Increased heat?
Decreased food production?
Sea level rise?
Weather disasters?
New pandemic potentials?
Climate Refugees?
Trigger for War?
Something else?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: be cause on June 03, 2019, 12:52:31 PM
increased threads ? :) .. b.c.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 03, 2019, 01:02:27 PM
The upcoming massive growth of refugees.

Honestly, i'm sure mankind could theoretically cope with climate change just fine if we would act as one.

But we will use resources to keep people out who flee their land. We will build bombs and guns and walls and fences in order to preserve what's ours.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tony Mcleod on June 03, 2019, 01:27:24 PM
Weather disasters leading to decreased food production causing unprecedented famine, probably in South and East Asia and Africa where so many billions rely on regular monsoon rains to subsist.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 03, 2019, 01:34:11 PM
Tony, I knew about Asia, but does Africa have monsoons too?
And what does AGW do to monsoons?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: crandles on June 03, 2019, 03:05:21 PM
Tony, I knew about Asia, but does Africa have monsoons too?
And what does AGW do to monsoons?

http://www.clivar.org/african-monsoon
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 03, 2019, 11:09:37 PM
End of global civilization by 2050:
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/597kpd/new-report-suggests-high-likelihood-of-human-civilization-coming-to-an-end-in-2050?utm_source=reddit.com
EDIT: more o this:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12237332
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: magnamentis on June 03, 2019, 11:20:03 PM
What effect of AGW is the worst specific one of all?
Increased heat?
Decreased food production?
Sea level rise?
Weather disasters?
New pandemic potentials?
Climate Refugees?
Trigger for War?
Something else?

thanks for spamming the forum with ever new threads that make the list of last unread longer and longer until we lose track of what is really interesting because time is an asset that's not unlimited.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 04, 2019, 07:39:02 AM
Magnamentis, if you look carefully, you'll see that some of the threads Tom started are actually quite popular even though they all have this kind of post in them you just posted.

What is going on here? I honestly don't understand that.

If a new thread is useless and unpopular it will get buried by other topics anyway. It takes almost no resources to open a new thread. It's a link in a database, some bits and bytes, that's all. No harm is done by opening a new thread.

Calling someone a spammer, on the other hand, is doing harm. That's a person you are talking to.

So, can we stop the bullying already?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 04, 2019, 02:29:45 PM
A few days ago I was in a rush and forgot the threads I should have used. I apologized to never, and he forgave me.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on June 04, 2019, 05:55:42 PM
I like Neven, he is one of the Best consequences of AGW.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Rich on June 04, 2019, 06:11:56 PM
Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

They know they're screwed. Twice this year over a million kids skipped school on the same day and boomers yawn at them.

A century ago, the Nazi's used Zyklon B to kill with indifference.

American's are the modern analog for the Nazi's.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 04, 2019, 06:19:59 PM
Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

They know they're screwed. Twice this year over a million kids skipped school on the same day and boomers yawn at them.

A century ago, the Nazi's used Zyklon B to kill with indifference.

American's are the modern analog for the Nazi's.
All Westerners are the modern analogue if that's your gripe. It's not like Europeans or Australians or the Japanese do much better. In fact Canada and Australia are the worst of all per capita.

And this is why noone cares if a million children use CC to skip out on school. Do you think they actually have any idea what they are "protesting" or do they want to skip school? Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image. Greta is a dolt (sorry, it's true).

You can rant and rave about "Climate change will do XYZ!" but unfortunately none of the aforementioned individuals have a basic grasp on impending changes, or anywhere near the knowledge of even the entry-level posters of this forum. And the advanced posters here could tell you that we are completely screwed with or without action due to what's inevitably impending when SO2 and aerosols reduce.

So, you can call Americans Nazis and sound uneducated, or you can say that wealthy and middle class humans are responsible (and have always been responsible) for wreaking death and destruction on the poor, a trend which will only worsen as resource disparities continue to grow as poor populations continue to balloon unchecked in developing regions.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 04, 2019, 06:52:04 PM
Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

Please, don't take what i'm about to say as an attempt to downplay this important point.

As a young boy, when i learned about atomic bombs, i was pretty sure, i would die soon by nuclear warfare. This is just around the corner where Ramstein is. Everyone in Germany in the cold war knew this airbase would be the first Russian target for sure. And even if it wasn't, we would have been so fucked here between the lines... The sward of Damocles over our heads all the time, everywhere. Still, people did what they did, lived their lives. Because there was nothing we could possibly do (we thought).

Today's situation is different in a way that we know that we can do something against the pending doom.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 04, 2019, 06:56:00 PM
Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image

Bbr, when was the last time you thought telling the truth about climate change would be a great business model?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 04, 2019, 07:28:23 PM
Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image

Bbr, when was the last time you thought telling the truth about climate change would be a great business model?
I mean, this is kind of a non sequitur? My point is that even the supposed activists are completely misinformed and serve as propaganda for other means vs. Acting as agents of actual change or informed discourse. I would actually go so far as to say the ASIF is the only location on planet Earth where legitimate discourse can be had.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 04, 2019, 07:37:09 PM
In that case, bbr2314, I'm glad I found this site!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 04, 2019, 07:39:37 PM
  Do you think they actually have any idea what they are "protesting" or do they want to skip school? Greta Thurnberg is a tool being used by her celebrity mother to further her own image. Greta is a dolt (sorry, it's true).

You can rant and rave about "Climate change will do XYZ!" but unfortunately none of the aforementioned individuals have a basic grasp on impending changes, or anywhere near the knowledge of even the entry-level posters of this forum. 

I think you're short-changing Greta and the XR movement.  They've brought the issue of climate change to public attention more assertively than anyone since Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.  I think Thurnberg is a more credible and effective spokesperson than Gore, in fact.

Gore is no climate scientist either.  But what credentialled expert has had comparable impact on public awareness?

Public protests and civil disobedience are central to effecting social change.  They are, I believe, the most effective tools.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 04, 2019, 07:46:13 PM

Do you not find it a little bit odd, that you never had the idea of profiting from making climate change public yourself, yet you think others do it for exactly this reason (without any argument underlining this mind you). I think the motive you are assuming here, is some BS you overheard somewhere. Seems like you never had a second thought about that.
 
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Rich on June 04, 2019, 08:03:56 PM
Worst consequences of AGW is young people growing up knowing what's coming.

Please, don't take what i'm about to say as an attempt to downplay this important point.

Today's situation is different in a way that we know that we can do something against the pending doom.

Yet, you are downplaying it.

According to an article I read on Skeptical Science, it takes 35-40 years for the oceans to achieve just 60% of an equilibrium to an increase in CO2 levels.

What we are experiencing today is just scratching the surface of what has been committed to.

You and I both grew up with nuclear bomb awareness. It was binary and dependent upon powerful people willing to commit suicide. Mutually assured destruction was an effective deterrent and I didn't lose any sleep over nukes.

With climate change, the bombs have already been released and there is no anti-missile defense.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: be cause on June 04, 2019, 08:09:16 PM
 .. seeing Greta belittled on ASIF .. b.c.

     ffs .. :)

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Rich on June 04, 2019, 08:29:12 PM
Of course, America isn't the only country with above average GHG emissions.

But we have the power to force change and we don't. We have the $800 billion military that enforces the fossil fuel hegemony. We are alone among the Western nation's in having 1/4 of our voters who are religious fundamentalists. We have the climate denying POTUS.

We are now the biggest producer of fossil fuels. We are one of only two nations to reject the Paris Accord. Even the Democratic leaders like Pelosi and Biden are weak on climate.

Plenty of bad guys in the climate change story....but the US is by far the worst.

The death toll from environmental collapse is going to dwarf what WW II brought. My country is at the epicenter of that genocide.


 
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 04, 2019, 08:34:20 PM

Do you not find it a little bit odd, that you never had the idea of profiting from making climate change public yourself, yet you think others do it for exactly this reason (without any argument underlining this mind you). I think the motive you are assuming here, is some BS you overheard somewhere. Seems like you never had a second thought about that.
How would you know I haven't attempted to profit from making climate change public?

My assumed motive re: Thurnberg is not BS, but you are free to disagree with me!

My two passions are buildings and weather. I have monetized the former, but not the latter, because it is enjoyable to me to post here and interact with an established community vs. starting my own website / etc. I also think monetizing a hobby can diminish its enjoyability because it becomes about money (in part or in full) instead of pure enjoyment.

And, be cause: why should anyone here respect Greta? Because she skips school and encourages others to do so, or because she spouts BS demands that will make no difference while enjoying the benefits derived from Scandinavian society, which is entirely built on slave labor from abroad and fossil fuels / dirty mining etc at home? I know people like to look at Norway and Sweden as bastions of the progressive movement but it is easy to ignore the damage wrought by Norwegian petroleum and Swedish manufacturing when the negative externalities only occur elsewhere, while the alleged positives (a social welfare state that results in mindless drone citizens) are what's talked and bantered about on the interwebs.

I repeat: it is my opinion that Thurnberg is one such mindless drone, a tool of the capitalist elites in Sweden and elsewhere (including her mother) that acts as a mindless figure "against climate change" while simultaneously belonging to a culture that is most definitely responsible for a very significant portion of per capita emissions, even if they are hidden by offshoring all negative externalities.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 04, 2019, 08:37:02 PM
Of course, America isn't the only country with above average GHG emissions.

But we have the power to force change and we don't. We have the $800 billion military that enforces the fossil fuel hegemony. We are alone among the Western nation's in having 1/4 of our voters who are religious fundamentalists. We have the climate denying POTUS.

We are now the biggest producer of fossil fuels. We are one of only two nations to reject the Paris Accord. Even the Democratic leaders like Pelosi and Biden are weak on climate.

Plenty of bad guys in the climate change story....but the US is by far the worst.

The death toll from environmental collapse is going to dwarf what WW II brought. My country is at the epicenter of that genocide.

I disagree, I think Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, Europe, in fact every developed nation is equally to blame. If the US tamped on its fossil fuel output there would be riots in the streets in Europe and elsewhere. You can see this dichotomy in the politics section of this board where posters like Lurk say the entire would should have a middle class standard of living without realizing that said standard of living is single-handedly responsible for the destruction of the planet.

The problem is not the US, or China, or Russia, or France, or Saudi Arabia. The problem is the global middle class, and if you actually want to save the planet, it would have to be obliterated (which would mean no more posting on the forum for you, sorry!).
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: vox_mundi on June 05, 2019, 04:02:02 AM
Human Civilization Faces "Existential Risk" by 2050 According to New Australian Climate Change Report 
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/new-climate-change-report-human-civilization-at-risk-extinction-by-2050-new-australian-climate/

(https://video-images.vice.com/articles/5cf55060c020060007ffa4f0/lede/1559582858518-GettyImages-1015903012.jpeg)

A new report by Australian climate experts warns that "climate change now represents a near- to mid-term existential threat" to human civilization. In this grim forecast — which was endorsed by the former chief of the Australian Defense Force — human civilization could end by 2050 due to the destabilizing societal and environmental factors caused by a rapidly warming planet.

The report (https://docs.wixstatic.com/ugd/148cb0_a1406e0143ac4c469196d3003bc1e687.pdf), entitled "Existential climate-related security risk: A scenario approach," lays out a future where society could collapse due to instability set off by migration patterns of billions of people affected by drought, rising sea levels, and environmental destruction.

"Climate-change impacts on food and water systems, declining crop yields and rising food prices driven by drought, wildfire and harvest failures have already become catalysts for social breakdown and conflict across the Middle East, the Maghreb and the Sahel, contributing to the European migration crisis," the report said.

The new policy briefing is written by David Spratt, Breakthrough’s research director and Ian Dunlop, a former senior executive of Royal Dutch Shell who previously chaired the Australian Coal Association. Retired Admiral Chris Barrie—Chief of the Australian Defence Force from 1998 to 2002 and former Deputy Chief of the Australian Navy—endorsed the report and wrote a forward to it.

"After nuclear war, human induced global warming is the greatest threat to human life on the planet," Barrie wrote.

Using a worst-case scenario existential risk analysis, Spratt and Dunlop depict humanity falling into ruin under an additional 2 degrees Celsius of warming — a threshold scientists say the world is heading towards if current trends continue. In their scenario, "tipping points" occur when humanity fails to institute carbon emission reforms in the 2020s and 2030s. This creates a "hothouse" effect on Earth, leading to rapidly rising sea levels set off by melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and "widespread permafrost loss and large-scale Amazon drought and dieback."

As a result, the authors say, some of the world's most populated cities — Mumbai, Jakarta, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Hong Kong, Ho Chi Minh City, Shanghai, Lagos, Bangkok and Manila — would have to be abandoned due to their location in the tropical zone.

The assessment ends with a harrowing conclusion: "More than a billion people may need to be relocated and in high-end scenarios, the scale of destruction is beyond our capacity to model, with a high likelihood of human civilization coming to an end."

The report also paints a grim picture in terms of national security, with extreme climate conditions and the disruption of huge populations placing "the internal cohesion of nations ... under great stress."

"The flooding of coastal communities around the world, especially in the Netherlands, the United States, South Asia, and China, has the potential to challenge regional and even national identities," the report warns. "Armed conflict between nations over resources, such as the Nile and its tributaries, is likely and nuclear war is possible. The social consequences range from increased religious fervor to outright chaos."

https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers
https://apo.org.au/node/239741 

----------------------

The 'Great Dying' Nearly Erased Life On Earth. Scientists See Similarities To Today 
https://www.npr.org/2019/06/04/729341362/the-great-dying-nearly-erased-life-on-earth-scientists-see-similarities-to-today

There was a time when life on Earth almost blinked out. The "Great Dying," the biggest extinction the planet has ever seen, happened some 250 million years ago and was largely caused by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Now scientists are beginning to see alarming similarities between the Great Dying and what's currently happening to our atmosphere. ...
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on June 05, 2019, 05:17:10 AM
The worst consequence of climate change? The end of modern civilization and the reduction of the population to historical levels or less. There will be millions of humans around, but they won't be living. They will be surviving on an alien planet. But that only happens if the Arctic collapses and we are as unprepared as we are now. If we mount serious response in time we can completely avoid apocalypse and the opposite will come true. A new era of prosperity awaits.

I would like to answer a spin of this question. What is the most scary consequence of climate change? Heatwaves. Particularly after ASI is gone in the summer, deep inside the continents. The temperatures will rise to levels that no hominid have ever experienced in nature. Powerstations will blow up, rods will melt, metal will buckle. Very few people will survive.

Sure hurricanes and floods can be scary, but at least they are fast. Heatwaves may last weeks. I find it terrifying.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: oren on June 05, 2019, 06:07:52 AM
The worst short-term consequence of climate change is the rise of the Internet troll as a full-time job  :P Thank godNeven for keeping this place clean.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Wherestheice on June 05, 2019, 06:57:49 AM
The worst consequence of climate change? The end of modern civilization and the reduction of the population to historical levels or less. There will be millions of humans around, but they won't be living. They will be surviving on an alien planet. But that only happens if the Arctic collapses and we are as unprepared as we are now. If we mount serious response in time we can completely avoid apocalypse and the opposite will come true. A new era of prosperity awaits.

I would like to answer a spin of this question. What is the most scary consequence of climate change? Heatwaves. Particularly after ASI is gone in the summer, deep inside the continents. The temperatures will rise to levels that no hominid have ever experienced in nature. Powerstations will blow up, rods will melt, metal will buckle. Very few people will survive.

Sure hurricanes and floods can be scary, but at least they are fast. Heatwaves may last weeks. I find it terrifying.

If we take unprecedented actions, I can't say I agree that there will be a "new era of prosperity". We've already baked in enough crap for things to get worse than they are now
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on June 05, 2019, 08:30:17 AM
@Archimid
Just for the meaning of "Worst", I'll take it a bit further: >90% of life extinct; extinction of humans; end of the cenozoic (age of mammals) and a very very long time for biodiversity to build up again; for the now deciduous tree-of-life to regrow a canopy. And of course global nuclear contamination.
Now I am sad.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 05, 2019, 12:14:08 PM
Greta & XR have done , in a matter of months, what many of us posting here fought hard to try & achieve over 2 decades of attempting to raise awareness/battle deniers.

I am content they arrived on the scene & have spoken , in my language, about the scale of the threats now descending on us all.

If the elites are involved here it is in the kind of belittling of these guys efforts we see above!

Effective action means reigning in/ending global Capitalism in its current form & that includes 'money'

I'd always thought that the paid deniers were trying merely to enable the FF industry to maximise their profits. Now I see it was to push back the inevitable move towards a more 'socialist in outlook' planet

This negates the wealth & power the elites currently wield

Thing is Global Socialism had already begun to gain ground both in the U.S. & Europe ( and again the MSM neglected to report/inform on that cultural shift among both young and old.......odd that eh?) so the onset of global calls for realistic action to combat our climate crisis signals the end game for the elite in their current form?

There is no accident in the rate of increase in inequality this past 20 years as the global elite try to hoover up all of the last bits of available wealth from nation states , the poor & middle classes in preparation for their 'bug out' as we face a climate crisis that would have been avoided had we acted 30 years ago ( even 20 years ago when the elites made their decision to let us burn?) but we all saw what we saw. A concerted effort to pooh pooh any person raising climate concerns and the installation of the 'false consensus' which demanded equal representation for denier & scientist alike.

We either 'arise like lions from sleep' (200 yr anniversary of 'Peterloo' this year) or we are done.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Rich on June 05, 2019, 12:32:14 PM
I give Greta and XR a ton of credit. But let's also recognize that the IPCC SR 1.5 was probably an essential ingredient to their going viral.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 05, 2019, 12:49:45 PM
I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 05, 2019, 01:02:02 PM
Also, there have always been elites and there will always be elites. They are crucial for society to function. The same cannot be said for the global middle class. Dreams of socialist revolution will end in a reality of bloodshed for its perpetrators, but maybe that is necessary to save the planet.  ;D
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 05, 2019, 01:04:01 PM
They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr.  ;D
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on June 05, 2019, 01:40:00 PM
They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr.  ;D
Thanks for providing an example of a proletariat utopia without a functioning elite beyond the end game of Marxist theory  ;D
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 05, 2019, 01:44:35 PM
And you sir. Thanks for providing an example of gentry bootlicking.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Gray-Wolf on June 05, 2019, 01:49:47 PM
They are crucial for society to function.

Thanks for the good laugh Bbr.  ;D

For those trapped in , or clinging to, the current system their only faux comfort comes from the old 'if you shared all global wealth out it would still end up in the same hands' BS

There is a mentally deficient side to most who profit under this system and the proof of such is the state we find ourselves in today and the continued obfuscation of those who wield global Capital?

Change is coming whether we like it or not and our choice is either to sycophant to the elite in the hope that they will change their spots and be beneficent toward the brown nosers or we organise , unify and take matters into our own hands.

It will necessitate great changes for those who hoard Global Capital though, but then so will a dying Planet whether they believe it or not!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on June 05, 2019, 02:12:46 PM
Greta shames us all with her bravery and determination. She talks the talk and walks the walk. If we had more people like her we would have solve this shitty problem already.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 05, 2019, 05:38:00 PM
A survey of what rapid AGW is doing:
https://truthout.org/articles/arctic-is-thawing-so-fast-scientists-are-losing-their-measuring-tools/

EDIT: AGW makes war more likely (remember the 10,000 nukes?):
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/climate-change-helping-world-less-peaceful-global-peace-041000393.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZGFpbHljbGltYXRlLm9yZy8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAHZshLpdH0-URlwR437YvRxDNef4ThkwJfrb8ugGfZ1Pmr4wUMW1PebZ8nORR0zp4aB4Wu6wJ4ILYwqI7LMmWYam5brHisGnTaqqP-FVQlbnosemjohRiDmOl6drO1RaI2m7kqad3DZlzl6O-QdPe3RAc_NalLEe89z0nnDx9FfE

EDIT 2:
No government will survive what is coming after 5 more years of BAU:
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a28102591/india-drought-chennai-climate-change-five-years-transform/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Ktb on June 06, 2019, 08:13:38 AM
The worst consequence will be utter and complete collapse of human civilization as we know it.

And to some above replies: redistribution of wealth still keeps society in the game/prison of capitalism. The bars must be broken and humanity set free in order to save the earth and ourselves.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 27, 2019, 02:36:28 PM
I vote food. That is what will first hit almost everyone. Maybe when this year’s harvest comes in very low and food prices soar.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Pikk_Ax on June 27, 2019, 03:00:02 PM
The rest of the plants and animals on the planet will pay for our mistakes.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on June 27, 2019, 04:38:50 PM
I vote potable water.

Greta shames us all with her bravery and determination. She talks the talk and walks the walk. If we had more people like her we would have solve this shitty problem already.
People like her have been murdered throughout history. To be like that has not been a good survival strategy. Maybe that's why there are so few like her.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: El Cid on June 27, 2019, 05:07:07 PM
I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.

Totally true!

However the global middle class is not "us" (most of the posters are from developed countries here), because they are from India, Uganda, China, etc whose parents 50 years ago were subsistence farmers, but now they want to live like the US middle class they see in the movies: house in the suburbia, 1-2 cars, etc. Of course, this can not happen, the Earth's resources are not enough for that. So it is the developed countries' population who will need to heavily scale back its consumption of everything! Yes, it is you. All of you. And me...

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 27, 2019, 08:26:25 PM
I love how the rise of the global middle class is completely ignored in the above post as if the consumption habits of the elite, who have always been very limited and have always consumed as they do today, are something new. The global middle class is to blame, if this is not apparent to you its because you are middle class and would rather point fingers and blame "elites" instead of recognizing this crisis actually began with the French Revolution.

I disagree with this.  Here are some examples why:

1. FF and Auto industry fighting electric car initiatives.  The middle class can't buy EV's if they aren't available.  In the 1990's California EV initiative was overturned due to industry pressure.  Many of of the EV's that were available (the NiMh GM EV1 and Toyota RAV4 EV) had greater range capacity then the largest selling EV of the day, the Nissan Leaf (prior to the 2018 revision).

2. Subsidies to the FF industry.  Once again a case of using $$$ to influence policy.

3. Efforts by 'elites' to block mass transit projects.   See:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/19/climate/koch-brothers-public-transit.html

There's more of course.  You could go back to the destruction of Los Angeles' "Red Cars" in the 1950's or even Robert Moses' influence in NYC in the 1930's.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on July 04, 2019, 08:58:48 PM
Greatest fear(s)


Electrical Grid Collapse -> Communication Grid Collapse - Computers Crash -> Idiocracy without Wikipedia -> Transportation Collapse -> Famine -> Governmental Collapse -> Mad Max


I left out the untended Nuclear Power Stations, the unmanned dams & the well armed but unfed police and soldiers. ::)


Terry :(
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: magnamentis on July 04, 2019, 10:00:59 PM
the worst consequence that is certain and neither guesswork nor a lottery, is
Sea Level Rise by > 60m and hence inundation of most major cities world wide and a huge amount of arable land.

many will probably prefer to be dead than to live with those consequences to the immobile majority.

with immobile i mean no money, no job, no transport etc.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: sidd on July 04, 2019, 10:16:43 PM
Re: 60 m SLR

WAIS and GIS south domw are probably destabilized. It is not clear to me that EAIS is.

sidd
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2019, 10:37:43 PM
Worst consequences?  Dying, knowing I couldn't do anything effective significant to confront AGW, and I have kids who will see worse than what I'll see.
 :'(
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: magnamentis on July 04, 2019, 10:53:33 PM
Worst consequences?  Dying, knowing I couldn't do anything effective significant to confront AGW, and I have kids who will see worse than what I'll see.
 :'(

there we differ, death is a fact and i don't care much  about that, live with pain, miserable and other kinds of suffering are much worse for my type of person ;)

re 60m SLR

i wrote > 60m not = 60m just to make that clear and it does not much matter wether it will be 54 or 93 or any other number in that region, the effect will be catastrophic either way.

also i did not mention any time frame, can be much quicker and more abrupt than many of us think but too many unknowns to predict anything reliably.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2019, 11:41:47 PM
Mag,
I wrote nothing of death.  Maybe we're not so different after all!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on July 04, 2019, 11:57:11 PM
Mag,
I wrote nothing of death.  Maybe we're not so different after all!


If you think that death is the worst thing that life has to offer - you really haven't lived.
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: be cause on July 05, 2019, 12:00:33 AM
  .. Next birth .. in the post-apocaliptic world ... b.c.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: petm on July 05, 2019, 12:27:20 AM
Worst consequence? Complete ecosystem collapse. Maybe not too late to avert, but little to no chance that humans will take the necessary measures to do so even if it is possible.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 05, 2019, 01:52:09 AM
the worst consequence that is certain and neither guesswork nor a lottery, is
Sea Level Rise by > 60m and hence inundation of most major cities world wide and a huge amount of arable land.

many will probably prefer to be dead than to live with those consequences to the immobile majority.

with immobile i mean no money, no job, no transport etc.

By the time we reach 60 cm, much less 60 m, the increased heat and changed weather patterns would have disrupted food production to a Biblical extent.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: KiwiGriff on July 05, 2019, 02:19:13 AM
Security of food supply.

 “It has been said that civilization is twenty-four hours and two meals away from barbarism.”
― Neil Gaiman, Good Omens: The Nice and Accurate Prophecies of Agnes Nutter, Witch

We have already seen black swan events engendered by Climate Change cause issues with food supply around the globe
These events will continue to increase in frequency.
At some point in the next five decades or less we will see a number of such events coincide causing massive disruption to food supply  mostly in the third world.
Hundreds of millions will starve and a number of country's will irreversible collapse as a result.
The four Horsemen will ride out and take their toll on humanity.
War, famine, pestilence and death.   
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Rod on July 05, 2019, 02:35:08 AM
Hundreds of millions will starve and a number of country's will irreversible collapse as a result.
The four Horsemen will ride out and take their toll on humanity.
War, famine, pestilence and death.   

Well... that is a cheerful thought, but don’t forget climate change goes both ways 🤔. 
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: magnamentis on July 05, 2019, 03:33:57 AM
Mag,
I wrote nothing of death.  Maybe we're not so different after all!

you wrote: "Dying, knowing I ......."

IMO dying has a lot to do with death LOL, however, it's only about semantics here, not really groundbreaking.

also i said: "HERE" we are different, that implies else not so much, hence all good, not much difference ;) ;) ;)

some of the details may fall victim to native english terms against translated english. even though i use english more than german or spanish or french etc. nowadays, i'll never really get the same feel for that language like someone who spoke it from childhood + a slang that can't be translated with schoolbooks.

enjoy further :D :D
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on July 05, 2019, 03:36:28 PM
So it´s 2050 (or 2040). The grandkid asks why did you not do anything when you could stop all this?

That should be bad. Not the worst thing compared to all the death that would have occured by then but it is closer to home.

Not gonna happen to me because i decided to buy my mom a copy of The Storms of my Grandchildren at just the right time.

We knew we should have done something last century but making money was more important and for most people what matters is that their lives don´t get any harder so as long as we can consume it´s ok. Wetiko.

And there we go....the Paris goal is not that ambitious and they are slacking over that. All the time the carbon budget shrinks and i think we may well overrun that.

The worst consequence is that we ruin this planet for many future generations.
We will not see the worst of it, just the start.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 13, 2019, 07:29:34 PM
The internet is supposed to be able to survive a nuclear holocaust. But it may not survive AGW:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2018/07/news-internet-underwater-sea-level-rise/
And train travel may be ended by AGW as well:
https://mashable.com/article/train-tracks-climate-change-warping/
and truffle eating too:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/07/truffles-under-threat-climate-change/
starting to make conflict more likely:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/07/11/how-does-climate-change-impact-conflict-world/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d2db4be08ae5
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 24, 2019, 06:19:43 PM
All out thermonuclear war is the worst plausible human disaster, and AGW raises global tensions:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/07/a-brief-introduction-to-climate-change-and-national-security/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 27, 2019, 08:18:53 PM
This might be last on my list, but first on someone else's: sports
http://news.trust.org/item/20190724035458-18fka/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 02, 2019, 01:19:25 AM
Kids camps, sports, and AGW:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/hamilton/climate-change-soccer-sports-camps-footprint-1.5208434
Steel profitability and AGW:
https://www.edie.net/news/9/Climate-change-to-shock-steel-sector-profitability--report-warns/
Effects on Britain's formal gardens:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/01/britains-formal-gardens-could-changed-forever-global-warming/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 06, 2019, 10:31:00 PM
Tea plantations endangered:
https://eos.org/articles/climate-change-could-threaten-your-cuppa
Vegan ice cream threatened:
https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/aug/05/climate-change-is-hurting-vegan-ice-cream-industry/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 07:04:39 AM
Oh nooo, not the vegan icecream!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Darvince on August 07, 2019, 08:15:38 AM
I feel like, since AGW will impact civilization as a whole in every way, that, if this topic is just listing various things affected by AGW, that we can just post nearly everything that people are currently doing in this thread.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 07, 2019, 11:00:16 AM
I feel like, since AGW will impact civilization as a whole in every way, that, if this topic is just listing various things affected by AGW, that we can just post nearly everything that people are currently doing in this thread.
Well, when I first posted this thread, I was looking for a consensus on which affect of AGW would be the worst.
But I find a lot of articles giving a miscellaneous accounting of "minor" effects, and since they don't fit anywhere else, and I have resolved not to start any new threads, I put them here.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 05:06:48 PM
Tea plantations endangered:
https://eos.org/articles/climate-change-could-threaten-your-cuppa
Vegan ice cream threatened:
https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/aug/05/climate-change-is-hurting-vegan-ice-cream-industry/

Hi Tom, I think not all interesting articles should be posted. You should let some things go even though I think you are doing a good job in informing us. Thank you.
But especially vegan icecream is somewhat over the top to post here, don't you think?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 05:36:40 PM
Philippines declares dengue epidemic as deaths surge

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49249144 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-49249144)

Some excerpts:
The Philippines has declared a "national dengue epidemic" after at least 622 people lost their lives from the mosquito-borne disease this year.

At least 146,000 cases were recorded from January to 20 July - a 98% increase on the same period last year - the health department said.

I'm sorry if I posted this in the wrong thread.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 08, 2019, 02:21:26 PM
Tea plantations endangered:
https://eos.org/articles/climate-change-could-threaten-your-cuppa
Vegan ice cream threatened:
https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/aug/05/climate-change-is-hurting-vegan-ice-cream-industry/

Hi Tom, I think not all interesting articles should be posted. You should let some things go even though I think you are doing a good job in informing us. Thank you.
But especially vegan icecream is somewhat over the top to post here, don't you think?

There will be thousands of consequences of AGW, dozens of them catastrophic, but most just annoying. You’ll you want me to start a new thread for the annoying ones? And maybe someone else is a lover of vegan ice cream.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: DrTskoul on August 08, 2019, 02:48:46 PM
Tea plantations endangered:
https://eos.org/articles/climate-change-could-threaten-your-cuppa
Vegan ice cream threatened:
https://www.columbian.com/news/2019/aug/05/climate-change-is-hurting-vegan-ice-cream-industry/

Hi Tom, I think not all interesting articles should be posted. You should let some things go even though I think you are doing a good job in informing us. Thank you.
But especially vegan icecream is somewhat over the top to post here, don't you think?

There will be thousands of consequences of AGW, dozens of them catastrophic, but most just annoying. You’ll you want me to start a new thread for the annoying ones? And maybe someone else is a lover of vegan ice cream.

Fuck no...I rather have my #=@ cut off..
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: petm on August 08, 2019, 03:05:57 PM
Quote
Climate Change Threatens the World’s Food Supply, United Nations Warns

The world’s land and water resources are being exploited at “unprecedented rates,” a new United Nations report warns, which combined with climate change is putting dire pressure on the ability of humanity to feed itself.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/08/climate/climate-change-food-supply.html

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srccl/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 09, 2019, 01:45:23 AM
AGW worsens homelessness:
https://www.fastcompany.com/90386051/homelessness-is-already-a-crisis-but-climate-change-makes-it-much-worse
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: be cause on August 09, 2019, 02:00:51 AM
I don't read Tom's posts as they require I consent to advertising and analysis gathering .. they mostly come from unrecognised on-line publications whose aim is profit . Tom .. do you earn a living doing this dumping of 'info' from the advertisers and the anal ysers ? If not I'm sure you could . b.c.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 09, 2019, 02:03:08 AM
I don't read Tom's posts as they require I consent to advertising and analysis gathering .. they mostly come from unrecognised on-line publications whose aim is profit . Tom .. do you earn a living doing this dumping of 'info' from the advertisers and the anal ysers ? If not I'm sure you could . b.c.

While I find a few others in other places, the bulk of my links comes from https://www.dailyclimate.org/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 10, 2019, 08:17:30 PM
UN Report: North Africa, Middle EAST and South and East Asia already drier:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/08/climate-change-is-taking-a-bigger-toll-on-our-food-water-and-land-than-we-realized/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 12, 2019, 06:49:21 PM
In addition to the above, I'd add massive uncontrolled wildfires that drive CO2 levels and are too numerous and powerful to be controlled.

Think "Paradise Fire" x 1m.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: philopek on August 12, 2019, 07:06:55 PM
In addition to the above, I'd add massive uncontrolled wildfires that drive CO2 levels and are too numerous and powerful to be controlled.

Think "Paradise Fire" x 1m.

But that intersection will be way below sea-level by then ;) [JK]

Your message is received, just coulnd't resist, hope for some sense of humor ;)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on August 12, 2019, 08:22:22 PM
Adding humor to such a dark setting will certainly help lighten things up without resorting to comfortable lies.

I like it so far.

On your economic system, I understand the value of a coin, but seeds in a post apocalypse where the climate is not stable for long enough to grow plants, seeds seem like a bad coin. Unless it's some special seed.

Perhaps later a barter system can be added. Barter is the default human trading method that does not require coin. Trading water for food or food for spare parts seem like the way to go.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 13, 2019, 02:40:32 AM
Matterhorn is becoming too dangerous to climb
(It is shale, not granite, and melting ice and permafrost is lubricating it):
https://www.outsideonline.com/2400768/climate-change-matterhorn-climbing-dangerous
AGW increases mercury in seafood
For every 1 degree the ocean warms, dogfish are exposed to 70 percent more mercury. Cod, which also live in the researchers’ study area off the coast of Maine, are exposed to approximately 32 percent more mercury for every single degree the ocean warms.
https://inhabitat.com/as-ocean-temperatures-rise-so-does-mercury-exposure-in-seafood/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 17, 2019, 08:45:35 PM
With the weapons we have, war might be the biggie:
https://www.newsecuritybeat.org/2019/08/search-consensus-climate-conflict-links/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1300-6
Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict are diverse and contested. Here we assess the current understanding of the relationship between climate and conflict, based on the structured judgments of experts from diverse disciplines. These experts agree that climate has affected organized armed conflict within countries. However, other drivers, such as low socioeconomic development and low capabilities of the state, are judged to be substantially more influential, and the mechanisms of climate–conflict linkages remain a key uncertainty. Intensifying climate change is estimated to increase future risks of conflict.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Bugalugs on August 19, 2019, 02:39:12 AM
This is the worst consequence IMO .... https://www.newscientist.com/article/2213529-plant-growth-has-declined-drastically-around-the-world-due-to-dry-air/

Forests seem affected. Will crops be affected?

Interesting to note that there was initial global greening into the late 1990s, presumably from raised CO2, which has now changed to browning as a consequence of vapour pressure deficit.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Juan C. García on August 19, 2019, 04:33:06 AM
The worst consequence would be that humanity loses the control of Anthropogenic Global Warming and we start a new extinction, like the one that happened at the end of the Permian era.
This event is described in Neil DeGrasse's Cosmos chapter "The Lost Worlds of Planet Earth".

Of course, it will not be identical, but the question is if humanity can lose control and what could happen next.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on August 19, 2019, 11:11:09 AM
This is the worst consequence IMO .... https://www.newscientist.com/article/2213529-plant-growth-has-declined-drastically-around-the-world-due-to-dry-air/

Forests seem affected. Will crops be affected?

Interesting to note that there was initial global greening into the late 1990s, presumably from raised CO2, which has now changed to browning as a consequence of vapour pressure deficit.

vox-mundi has recently made a post about this with more information:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.msg222302.html#msg222302 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1786.msg222302.html#msg222302)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on August 19, 2019, 11:14:03 AM
The worst consequence would be that humanity loses the control of Anthropogenic Global Warming and we start a new extinction, like the one that happened at the end of the Permian era.
This event is described in Neil DeGrasse's Cosmos chapter "The Lost Worlds of Planet Earth".

Of course, it will not be identical, but the question is if humanity can lose control and what could happen next.

[sarc]
You think humanity has control?  :o
[/sarc]
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 27, 2019, 09:12:38 PM
The toxic waste threat that climate change is making worse
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/26/toxic-waste-climate-change-worse-1672998
Quote
More than 100 storage sites for coal-burning power plants’ toxic leftovers lie in areas that federal emergency managers have labeled a high risk for flooding, according to POLITICO’s examination of government and industry data.

That finding comes as scientists and pollution experts warn that coal ash — a multibillion-dollar liability problem for communities across the country — may become an even greater danger because of heavier rains triggered by climate change. Already, federal agencies warn that the government’s flood maps most likely understate the risks of deluges in much of the country, including the Southeast, where at least 42 storage sites in POLITICO’s analysis are located.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 29, 2019, 11:02:46 PM
From Yemen to South Sudan, climate and water stress seen worsening conflict
http://news.trust.org/item/20190828194523-tnitl/
Quote
Social and political tensions fuelled by climate change have yet to translate into international military confrontations, but local conflicts are heating up due to pressures such as drought and water scarcity, officials and researchers said on Wednesday.

In fragile states like Yemen and South Sudan, competition for scarce natural resources is increasing while a growing need for humanitarian aid undermines states' ability to deal with climate risks, said Johan Schaar of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bligh8 on August 30, 2019, 04:32:03 AM
I read a paper several days ago that I thought was to alarmist even for this forum, so I just forgot about it .. except here's the thing, within that paper they predicted one million AGW related deaths per week by the middle of the next decade.  After some thought and reading abit this does not sound to outlandish .. and, @ 1 million deaths per week, the global population would still be growing.

bligh
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on August 30, 2019, 08:39:45 AM
I read a paper several days ago that I thought was to alarmist even for this forum, so I just forgot about it .. except here's the thing, within that paper they predicted one million AGW related deaths per week by the middle of the next decade.  After some thought and reading abit this does not sound to outlandish .. and, @ 1 million deaths per week, the global population would still be growing.

bligh


That figure is very disturbing  - Twice over!
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 30, 2019, 01:48:13 PM
I read a paper several days ago that I thought was to alarmist even for this forum, so I just forgot about it .. except here's the thing, within that paper they predicted one million AGW related deaths per week by the middle of the next decade.  After some thought and reading abit this does not sound to outlandish .. and, @ 1 million deaths per week, the global population would still be growing.

bligh
WHO estimated that between 2030 and 2050 an additionally quarter million deaths per year will occur due to heat exposure (mostly in the elderly) and an additional number due to disease and malnutrition (mostly in the young).  That adds up to half a million per year or 10,000 per week.

https://www.who.int/globalchange/publications/quantitative-risk-assessment/en/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 04, 2019, 06:23:40 PM
Gracious, does this mean I won't be able to get wine with Communion any more?  ;D
Watch: Climate change hits Greek wine as grape harvest falls 30%
https://www.euronews.com/2019/09/02/watch-climate-change-hits-greek-wine-as-grape-harvest-falls-30
Quote

Climate change is creating new challenges for Greek wine producers. The grape harvest is down 30 per cent since 2018 and 50 per cent from 2017, according to one Santorini winery's chief oenologist.

Winemakers fear that Increasing temperatures are also changing the character of the remaining grapes – Santorini wines are famously sharp but higher temperatures could change the acidity of grape varietals and result in a more fruity, sweeter wine in the future.

And forget about eating banana splits
Climate change could cause global banana shortage
https://metro.co.uk/2019/09/02/climate-change-cause-global-banana-shortage-10672301/
Quote
A new study shows that global production of bananas could be threatened by global warming. It shows that in 27 countries which account for 86% of global dessert banana production, climate change has so far resulted in more favourable conditions for the crop. However, if things continue as they have done, the gains will reduce or disappear completely by 2050.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2019, 01:08:20 AM
Climate Gentrification: Coming to a Community Near You
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/09/climate-gentrification-coming-to-a-community-near-you/
Quote
“Climate gentrification is when the response to climate impacts indirectly increases disparities in communities,” Jennie Stephens, director for strategic research collaborations at Northeastern’s Global Resilience Institute, says. Wealthy people seeking refuge from the effects of climate change are starting to move into neighborhoods that were once considered undesirable. The term is fairly new, but there are already examples of this new kind of gentrification taking place—and not just in coastal areas. “It can happen and it is happening in all kinds of communities,” Stephens says.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 09, 2019, 06:00:34 PM
Climate change is coming for your wine. What the world's wineries are doing to save grapes
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/09/08/climate-change-threatens-worlds-wineries-which-grapes-saved/2136457001/
Quote
Soaring temperatures, irregular rain patterns and the ever-present threat of fires is causing winery owners here and around the world to adopt aggressive strategies to safeguard their livelihoods. These tactics include experimenting with new varieties of grapes, finding new ways to maximize water use and even seeking out land in areas that formerly were too cold for vineyards.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 11, 2019, 08:35:07 PM
Climate crisis is greatest ever threat to human rights, UN warns
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2019/sep/09/climate-crisis-human-rights-un-michelle-bachelet-united-nations
Quote
The UN rights chief, Michelle Bachelet, cited the civil wars sparked by a warming planet and the plight of indigenous people in an Amazon ravaged by wildfires and rampant deforestation.

She also denounced attacks on environmental activists, particularly in Latin America, and the abuse aimed at high-profile figures such as the teenage campaigner Greta Thunberg.

“The world has never seen a threat to human rights of this scope,” she told the UN human rights council in Geneva.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 10:27:28 PM
Could Climate Change Benefit Companies Like Amazon
https://www.inverse.com/article/59190-climate-change-amazon-shopping-consumer-trends
Quote
According to a new report from the Federal Reserve, extreme weather caused by climate change could have a significant impact on in-person retail sales in the not-too-distant future, but it’s unclear if online retailers will benefit.

When the weather is bad, author Brigitte Roth Tran found, people are less likely to go shopping. This is both harmful to the stores seeing a decline in sales and to the employees who might see fewer shifts available due to a lack of foot traffic. However, this doesn’t necessarily mean people will simply choose to order everything they need online.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 14, 2019, 02:04:55 PM
Climate Reality: "September 1 is now a day etched into the marble of Bahamian history and Bahamian memory. But it’s also a day that should be remembered the world over: the day that our accumulated choices and our inaction against climate change swelled into a storm."
https://mobile.twitter.com/climatereality/status/1172640867066290176

Hurricane Dorian Was a Climate Injustice
Quote
The Bahamas has been struck by many of the storms that have plowed through the Caribbean in the last few decades: Hurricane Andrew, Hurricane Floyd, Ike, Matthew, Irma, and so on. We’re familiar with their destruction, and so we have our protocols, our shelters, our rigorous building codes, and our years and years of experience. We also have the stories that have been passed down through generations, the ones that taught us about the worst dangers of the hurricanes that have hit our archipelago, and the legends of how people survived them.

But that’s no longer enough. “I have never seen nothing like that,” a woman screams at the top of her lungs in a video that was widely shared on Instagram. “There’s not one house in Marsh Harbor that’s standing,” she says. “Dead bodies everywhere.” Her eyes are wide and darting quickly, as if she has just seen a ghost, or many. “That couldn’t have just been a hurricane.”
https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/hurricane-dorian-was-a-climate-injustice
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 18, 2019, 07:17:01 PM
War is likely the worst consequence of AGW:
The Blood-Dimmed Tide
https://newrepublic.com/article/154953/climate-change-future-global-conflict-nationalism
Quote
With all these catastrophic scenarios now daily facts of life, the specter of climate upheaval—long held forth as the urgent, and quite possibly final, imperative to overcome tribal political divisions and the human race’s retrograde hoarding instincts—is acting as an accelerant of global conflict, plunging nationalist powers into a regressive rivalry to seize scarce resources and deny access to putative outsiders of all descriptions. The lineaments of a more equitable, sustainable, and cooperative world sketched out by advocates of a Green New Deal have given way, in stunningly short order, to a race to a new global bottom, equal parts Thomas Hobbes and Mad Max.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 21, 2019, 12:49:13 AM
CLIMATE CHANGE FORUM: MORE IMPACTS TO COME, BUT SOME ALREADY ‘IN THE REAR VIEW MIRROR’
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/climate-change-forum-more-impacts-to-come-but-some-already-in-the-rear-view-mirror/
Quote
In the 1970s, climate change activist Rafe Pomerance said, “nobody ever heard of the problem. … Now, there’s total recognition globally. The advance in the recognition recently is huge because … many of the impacts that were forecast in those assessments at that time have come to pass. We’re now see climate change — the forecast, still in the windshield, but we’re seeing impacts in the rear view mirror.”

Pomerance and David Roberts, who covers energy and climate change for Vox, spent about an hour talking about climate change challenges and potential solutions at “Energy Policy Then and Now,” a forum produced by the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, Sept. 12 in Philadelphia.

Climate Change Won’t Affect All Washingtonians Equally
https://dcist.com/story/19/09/19/climate-change-wont-affect-all-washingtonians-equally/
Quote
“Climate does not work in a vacuum,” says researcher Malini Ranganathan, an assistant professor at American University who co-authored a recent paper arguing for “abolitionist climate justice” in D.C. “It works in unpredictable ways as a catalyst for already existing challenges.”

Climate change is expected to make D.C.’s weather conditions warmer, wetter, and wilder, as the District Department of Energy and Environment’s climate chief recently put it. The District’s poorest residents are already facing enormous challenges around housing and health. And without significant intervention, advocates say that rising temperatures, increased rain, and more intense flooding will almost certainly exacerbate these interrelated problems.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 24, 2019, 08:06:18 PM
Consequences getting worse at accelerating rate:
Climate change impact accelerating: report
https://www.news.com.au/world/breaking-news/climate-change-impact-accelerating-report/news-story/f4b5086fb6d7359af109395062e81935
Quote
Climate change is accelerating, with carbon dioxide levels increasing, sea levels rising and ice sheets melting faster than ever, experts have warned.

The warning from the World Meteorological Organisation forms part of a "united in science" review for a UN climate action summit at which countries are being urged to increase their ambition to tackle emissions.

and
Climate change: Impacts 'accelerating' as leaders gather for UN talks
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-49773869
Quote
The climate statement is a pull-together of the latest science on the causes and growing impacts of unprecedented levels of warming seen in recent years.

Recognising that global temperatures have risen by 1.1 degrees C since 1850, the paper notes they have gone up by 0.2C between 2011 and 2015.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 25, 2019, 04:41:02 PM
AGW Consequences September 25

Climate change could stretch our capabilities, Defence Force chief speech warns
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-25/australian-defence-force-angus-campbell-climate-change-speech/11543464
Quote
Key points:
The Defence Chief's speech warns of the threat climate change poses to Australia's military and deployments
The speech was prepared for General Angus Campbell for an invitation-only event in regional NSW
It stated that climate change disasters have required more Australian personnel than the Afghan war
My cousin was in the army in Europe and took part in helping recovery in Italy from an earthquake, so the military is on the frontlines of disasters.
 
Could Massive Storm Surge Barriers End the Hudson River’s Revival?
https://e360.yale.edu/features/could-massive-storm-surge-barriers-end-the-hudson-rivers-revival
Quote
As threats from major storms increase, authorities are proposing surge barriers to protect New York Harbor. Some ecologists are concerned these giant barriers could have serious consequences for the Hudson, now hailed for its much-heralded recovery, and for other area waters.
They will have to put up such barriers, but they will have unintended consequences. Trying to prevent flooding damage (which will only work for a short time as SLR continues) will at the same time harm the ecology.

Zimbabwe’s capital runs dry as taps cut off for 2M people
https://www.apnews.com/4e12b39584dc4f8eaf6796b9582ada56
Quote
Tempers flared on Tuesday as more than 2 million residents of Zimbabwe’s capital and surrounding towns found themselves without water after authorities shut down the main treatment plant, raising new fears about disease after a cholera outbreak while the economy crumbles even more.

Officials in Harare have struggled to raise foreign currency to import water treatment chemicals; about $2.7 million is needed per month. Meanwhile, water levels in polluted reservoirs are dropping because of drought.
No particular drought can be blamed on AGW. However, AGW does increase the likelihood of droughts in many parts of the world (for example, the western half of the contiguous US, or southern Europe, IIRC). This could be the city your children live in.

World's oceans are losing power to stall climate change
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02897-7?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf220065067=1
Quote
The special report on oceans and ice by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that without steep cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, fisheries will falter, the average strength of hurricanes will increase, and rising seas will increase the risk of flooding in low-lying areas around the globe.
They also upped their SLR estimate for 2100 to 1.1 meters. AS has been noted elsewhere here, the IPCC is, if anything, conservative.

Fire threat brings power cuts to thousands in California
https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/fire-threat-brings-power-cuts-thousands-california-65842744
Quote
Tens of thousands of Northern Californians will find themselves without electricity Wednesday as Pacific Gas & Electric cuts power to reduce the threat of hot, dry, gusty weather knocking down power lines and sparking wildfires.
A year or two ago, we had a blackout here in Twinsburg for half a week, so I know these kind of things are an angina in the gluteus maximus. and as hot, dry weather becomes more prevalent, such anginas will become more common.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 25, 2019, 05:47:03 PM
Tom,
Thanks for putting your posts (or at least most of them) in one place (here).  It has to be easier on you, too!  If a post 'really belongs' someplace else, though (like a great picture of Arctic ice), put it where it 'belongs', if you like.
Tor
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 25, 2019, 06:27:25 PM
Not only is it easier, but it gives me more time for what Neven calls "interesting discussions".
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on September 25, 2019, 06:58:23 PM
Tom, i noticed you are interacting more recently. I like that. Always nice to hear about your view on things. :)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on September 25, 2019, 07:22:13 PM
^^
Seconded :)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: RealityCheck on September 25, 2019, 07:37:46 PM
'Thirded'
I think collecting such items under this thread's banner is actually very useful. The material is certainly relevant, and serves as a fast way to appreciate the scale and variety of impacts as they affect real people. I also appreciate the more focussed approach for contributions on other threads. Keep those fast fingers flying here for us.. 😁
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: wili on September 25, 2019, 07:53:09 PM
I'm not sure whether it was Tom or someone else that first posted this, but I'd like to hear some of Tom's reflections on it:

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/climate-change-poll_n_5d87ab74e4b0849d472adbb3

Every Group Except Older Republicans Is Concerned About Climate Change
Most Americans want the U.S. to take a global leadership role on climate change, but only about a quarter think the country is doing so.


As an older (I assume, perhaps wrongly?) Republican who is bucking this trend, perhaps you could give us insights into why so many from this segment seem so intent on ignoring science. Thanks ahead of time.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 25, 2019, 08:18:31 PM
Well, I was born March 5,1958. I am certainly not a younger anything.
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.
I have been a lover of science all my life. When I was a toddler I insisted on getting toy ray guns. My coin bank was a rocket which shot the coins into the slot. I earned a B.S. in Astronomy in 1989 and another B.S. in Computer and Information Science in 1983.
As for why someone else would ignore science, your guess is as good as mine.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on September 25, 2019, 08:27:49 PM
<snip>
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.

Wow. That's very nice to read Tom :).

I guess what you learned in computer science in 1983 became outdated very fast? (technology)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: wili on September 25, 2019, 08:32:35 PM
Thanks, Tom. I just thought maybe you were well acquainted with a number of folks that fit that description and may have an idea about how they tick.

I have an uncle who was a research scientist in hematology and later a dean of a major medical school, so very much a lover of science in most regards, but he still (now in his 90s) does not accept the science of AGW.

His ideology just seemed to be too much of a blinder in this case, apparently.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on September 25, 2019, 09:11:42 PM
Wili, the Kochs spend so much money on misinformation campaigns that your uncle heard climate 'change is a hoax' 100 times more often than the truth. Marketing works.

And for any dollar spend on manipulating the public opinion they earned 100 times the amount by keeping polluting the earth.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 25, 2019, 09:35:10 PM
<snip>
I am now an ex-Republican, partly because of this but even more because of the GOP war-on-the-poor.

Wow. That's very nice to read Tom :).

I guess what you learned in computer science in 1983 became outdated very fast? (technology)
I learned computing first as an Astronomy student.
We used punched cards.
Each card punch had something wrong with it. One could not punch "e"s so you could only use it for numerical data, another passed two cards for each one punched, so you had to take a card out and put it back, a third jumped a column after each character and you had to backspace...
Then we ran a shoebox full of cards through the reader, and went out for another class or lunch or studyhall or whatever. Come back an hour or two later when they put your printout into a cubbyhole numbered the last two digits of your student number.
Then you deciphered the hexadecimal error codes on the newpaper sized printout, debug the program, and do it all over again.
Yes, technology has changed!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on September 25, 2019, 09:41:49 PM
Sounds like USB-C to me. I have a shoebox of them. One does data but no power. The other does power but only 12W. One can do power in only one direction. Those can't do data. Another one is working sometimes. I also have a perfect 60W & data cable somewhere, can't find it.

Some things never change...
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 26, 2019, 06:11:27 PM
AGW consequences September 26, 2019

Why climate change is also a public health problem
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/climate-change-public-health-problem/story?id=65821388
Quote
Disease-carrying insects, and their habitats, spread
More heat- and cold-related deaths from extreme temperatures
Air pollution triggers battery of health problems
Mental health disorders and violence in the wake of hurricanes and floods
Also, for a personal view, first frost comes later. I used to be a miserable hay fever sufferer until I got a battery of shots.

A glacier in the Alps might collapse, thanks to global warming, officials say
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/116103246/a-glacier-in-the-alps-might-collapse-thanks-to-global-warming-officials-say
Quote
Global warming has put a glacier in the Italian Alps at risk of collapse, officials warned, leading to road closures, travel restrictions, and evacuations in the immediate vicinity.

Municipal officials issued the order after surveyors observed a significant increase in the sliding speed of the Planpincieux glacier, which rests on the Italian side of the Grand Jorasses peak. The mountain is one of several in the Mont Blanc massif, which runs through Italy, France and part of Switzerland.
This is something I did not think of. I know glaciers are a part of our world and losing them would be a loss, but I thought their areas were undeveloped.

From Antarctica to the Oceans, Climate Change Damage Is About to Get a Lot Worse, IPCC Warns
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/25092019/ipcc-cryosphere-ocean-report-climate-change-sea-level-rise-greenland-antarctica
Quote
As the planet warms, diverse ecosystems—from mountain glaciers to the icy Arctic to the oceans—are already seeing dangerous effects from climate change. Future warming will threaten food supplies, force the migration of countless species and dramatically change the icy regions of the world. The changes are coming. How much is up to us, scientists warn in a new report released Wednesday by the United Nations.
The article focuses most on the oceans, but also mentions other consequences. Everybody loses something. For example, in arctic areas, you think warmer weather is good? You might till the permafrost thaws under your house and it shifts and is damaged.

No Plan B: Deciding Not To Have Children Because of Climate Change
https://www.delmarvapublicradio.net/post/no-plan-b-deciding-not-have-children-because-climate-change
Quote
Under current projections, analysts are expecting severe environmental disruptions due to climate change by the time babies born today enter adulthood.
This forecast has some young people questioning whether to bring more children into such a world.
Some don’t want to bring children into the world who will ultimately feel the same fear they do. They also worry about the climate footprint of raising a child. And, they don’t want their children to have to live in a world struggling with flooding, fires and more frequent harsh storms.
How does raising a child affect one’s carbon footprint? What would this mean for populations already in decline? We assemble a panel to find out.
The long term number of children per couple should be the replacement level. Maybe NPG is good for a few generations, but ultimately it must be ZPG or we die out.

Alaska residents are watching climate change warm the Arctic before their very eyes
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/alaska-residents-are-watching-climate-change-warm-arctic-their-very-ncna1058416
Quote
Walter Peter, a Gwich’in hunter from Fort Yukon, Alaska, stood in front of the audience under an outdoor octagon of raw logs and listed the changes he’d seen: unreliable river ice, unpredictable salmon runs, altered goose migrations, tick-infested moose, diseased caribou. He spoke in a quiet, respectful voice and was respected in return. He didn’t crack a smile until he noted “there’s nothing better than fat moose kidneys and blueberry pancakes.” But he shook his head at the thought of all that is being lost.
Every culture and subculture in the world will lose many things that they treasure if AGW is unabated.

Extreme sea level events ‘will hit once a year by 2050’
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/extreme-sea-level-events-will-hit-once-a-year-by-2050
Quote
Extreme sea level events that used to occur once a century will strike every year on many coasts by 2050, no matter whether climate heating emissions are curbed or not, according to a landmark report by the world’s scientists.
The stark assessment of the climate crisis in the world’s oceans and ice caps concludes that many serious impacts are already inevitable, from more intense storms to melting permafrost and dwindling marine life.
But far worse impacts will hit without urgent action to cut fossil fuel emissions, including eventual sea level rise of more than 4 metres in the worst case, an outcome that would redraw the map of the world and harm billions of people.
I live about 1000ft/300m above sea level. But migrants from the East Coast might crowd my high ground. I will be 92 in 2050 and my uncle is already older than that, so I may make it.

What an ice-free Arctic really means, and why it matters so much
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/ice-free-arctic-1.5291966
Quote
And then there's the weather around the world. The jet stream, a column of air that travels from west to east that drives weather across the northern hemisphere, relies on the temperature difference between the Arctic and the south. But when the temperature difference is not as pronounced, the jet stream begins to develop kinks. This can have widespread effects such as creating systems that prolong heat waves in southern Ontario and Quebec or even Europe, or slow hurricanes to a near standstill, as was seen with Dorian earlier this month.
So although most Canadians — and most of the world's population — live far from the Arctic, its rapid changes will have effects felt across the globe.
"I think we have an incredible capacity to adapt, but we're going to push our limits, and we're going to live in a world that is already difficult for very many," Crowley said. But, he added, bluntly, "Of course we can better prepare, and be better at giving ourselves a chance at being resilient, but we need to stop crapping in our own bed."
Superstorm Sandy may have been enabled by the record small arctic sea ice, one poster saud to me here, so this might already be beginning.

Canadian fishermen feel effects of climate change as world panel sounds alarm bell
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/un-climate-change-report-nova-scotia-lobster-fishery-1.5296635
Quote
Boris Worm, a professor of marine biology at Halifax's Dalhousie University, contributed science that was assessed in the new report.
Worm said if the world continues on the current path, there will be 17 per cent less marine life globally on average by the end of the century.
Ocean temperatures change very slowly (thermal inertia), so I imagine there might be more like 70 percent less land life?

Panthera: At least 500 jaguars lost their lives or habitat in Amazon fires
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/panthera-at-least-500-jaguars-lost-their-lives-or-habitat-in-amazon-fires/
Quote
he fires in the Amazon forest in Brazil and Bolivia this year have burned key habitats of at least 500 adult, resident jaguars as of September 17, experts at Panthera, the global wild cat conservation organization, estimate. The numbers will continue to increase until the rains come, researchers say.
In Bolivia in particular, the fires have so far destroyed over 2 million hectares of forest in one of South America’s key “catscape”, a region that Panthera has identified as having the highest predicted density of cat species on the continent.
Panthera researchers also predict that many more jaguars will also likely starve or turn to killing livestock in neighboring ranches as a consequence of the fires, likely increasing conflict with the ranchers.
Wildfires are more likely in a warmer world. Which will release more CO2. Making the world still warmer...

‘IT’S JUST BAFFLING’: APPLE GROWERS FACE AN UNKNOWN THREAT THAT’S KILLING TREES
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/its-just-baffling-apple-growers-face-an-unknown-threat-thats-killing-trees/
Quote
Peters doesn’t think this is caused by an insect or a disease that spreads from tree to tree.
A study by Cornell University published this year found that weather-related stress like drought and severe cold could be an underlying cause. 
Peters doesn’t believe that’s the whole story. She has other theories, including increased rainfall or certain herbicides. A variety of stressors could be working together to lead to Rapid Apple Decline. 
“We just don’t know,” Peters said.
If AGW is part of it it is likely to get worse. I eat an apple a day(macintosh in the morning), so this is something I would not like.

Mountain Regions, ‘Taking the Heat,’ Face Growing Hazards As Ice Melts, UN Climate Panel Warns
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/mountain-regions-taking-the-heat-face-growing-hazards-as-ice-melts-un-climate-panel-warns/
Quote
Melting glacial ice, driven by man-made temperature changes, is disrupting the supply of water, food, and energy downstream while raising the risk of landslides, floods, and other natural hazards in the Alps, Andes, Caucasus, Himalayas, and other major mountain ranges. Along with the collapse of ice sheets on Antarctica and Greenland, the meltwaters also contribute to an accelerating rise in sea levels. In the Arctic, permafrost is weakening, causing land to slump and destabilizing roads and structures.
My cousin Sharon and her husband Bill live in Colorado. Bill is a ski instructor. At least he is now, if there is no skiing in a few years...
PS If you come here after I edit this post, please understand. I am not eager to list 10 links with quotes and comments, only to have the power blink or my computer time out or something on the ninth link.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 27, 2019, 06:19:09 PM
AGW Consequences September 27

Is Climate Change Driving Pirate Attacks in Indonesia?
https://theglobepost.com/2019/09/26/climate-change-pirates/
Quote
According to research by Sebastian Axbard, a lecturer of economics at the Queen Mary University of London, there is a correlation between poor local fishing conditions and increases in the rate of pirate attacks in Indonesia. Fishing conditions are influenced by oceanographic conditions like water temperature and levels of phytoplankton – a key source of food for fish.
I once saw a chart comparing rising climate temperatures and declining piracy. But in renent years, piracy has been on the rise (Somalia, then others) while temperatures continue up, so I guess the correlation is bogus.

Melting permafrost in the Arctic is unlocking diseases and warping the landscape
https://www.vox.com/2017/9/6/16062174/permafrost-melting
Quote
Now it’s melting. And things are getting weird and creepy: The ground warps, folds, and caves. Roadways built on top of permafrost have becoming wavy roller coasters through the tundra. Long-dormant microbes — some trapped in the ice for tens of thousands of years — are beginning to wake up, releasing equally ancient C02, and could potentially come to infect humans with deadly diseases. And the retreating ice is exposing frozen plants that haven’t seen the sun in 45,000 years, as radiocarbon dating research suggests.
The Black Death killed something like a third of the human race in the 14th Century, and smallpox killed something like two-thirds of the Western Hemisphere in the 17th Century. Wanna open Pandora's box?

Indigenous Knowledge Puts Industrial Pollution in Perspective
https://eos.org/articles/indigenous-knowledge-puts-industrial-pollution-in-perspective
Quote
Some arsenic released by Giant Mine was sequestered in sediments on lake bottoms, but some researchers say climate change could cause it to be released.
Arsenic is the stereotypical poison (Arsenic and Old Lace).Lucretia Borgia would be proud.

The Storm of the Century Could Soon Happen Every Year
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/09/extreme-weather-climate-change-sea-level-rise-floods-cities/598795/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheAtlanticCities+%28CityLab%29&utm_content=FeedBurner
Quote
According to the report, some islands in the Pacific and Indian oceans, as well as coastal cities in the Caribbean, are already seeing local sea levels rise each year to heights that used to be seen about once per century. In the best case scenario, in which global warming is limited to around 1.5 degrees, some cities along both the U.S. East and West coasts could see similar trends as early as 2035.
If that's the best case, what's the worst case?

A Plague of Cactus
https://www.biographic.com/posts/sto/a-plague-of-cactus
Quote
What’s happening in Kenya’s Laikipia region is a case study in how degraded land—damaged by unsustainable grazing practices and harmed further by climate change—is giving invasive species a leg up. Sometime in the late 1940s or early 50s, British colonial officials planted Opuntia stricta, a cactus native to the Americas, around their outpost in the tiny town of Dol Dol, a few miles from Larpei’s homestead. The shrubby plant’s attributes—bright yellow flowers, purple bulbous fruit, and protective spines—apparently made it both ornamental and functional, as a living fence or hedge.
My fondest hope is that a hurricane gets a pregnant female Herpestes auropunctatus blown from the Caribbean to Florida, and then that global warming allows the descendants of her litter to reach Ohio.  ;D

How Climate Change Is Affecting Our Children's Health
https://www.wgbh.org/news/science-and-technology/2019/09/26/how-climate-change-is-affecting-our-childrens-health
Quote
Climate change doesn't just affect our planet's health, but also our own health — and particularly that of children. Dr. Aaron Bernstein, a pediatrician at Boston Children's Hospital, joined Boston Public Radio on Thursday to explain how climate change harms our health and which groups are affected the worst.
"The way the climate is changing has real relevance to children," Bernstein said. "What we do today is going to matter a heck of a lot more to them over their lifespans."
Children of color and children from low-income households face disproportionately negative impacts from climate change, Bernstein noted.
"Pollution is definitely affecting people of color and people who are poor across the country, and right here in Boston, more than others," he said. "If we stop burning fossil fuels and coal and oil and gas, we can get rid of those disparities. "
It is long since I was a child, and I have no children, but this still hurts.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on September 27, 2019, 07:10:07 PM
The Black Death killed something like a third of the human race in the 14th Century, and smallpox killed something like two-thirds of the Western Hemisphere in the 17th Century. Wanna open Pandora's box?

Both black death and smallpox evolved with us and at some point turned nasty.
I would not worry about what comes out of the ice disease wise. The carbon is bad enough.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 27, 2019, 07:30:51 PM
Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: wili on September 27, 2019, 09:46:58 PM
"Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes."

Yes, correlation, of course, by itself, does not prove causation. But for your particular example there is other evidence that there may, in fact, be causation going on between increased suicides and increased numbers of extremely hot days:

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/07/high-temperatures-cause-suicide-rates-to-increase/565826/

Climate Change May Cause 26,000 More U.S. Suicides by 2050


Unusually hot days have profound effects on mental health and human physiology.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Ardeus on September 28, 2019, 12:49:55 PM
Has more research been done on UV-C in solar radiation reaching the Earth surface?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251429767_Comment_on_Extreme_environments_in_the_forests_of_Ushuaia_Argentina_by_Hector_D'Antoni_et_al

The reviewer of this paper points that their measurements "must be wrong" just because the atmosphere would prevent UV-C radiation from touching the ground.

With sea ice declining, we get a smaller difference between weather in the arctic and the equator, more water vapour in the stratosphere and less ozone. Less ozone means less UV-C absorption.

If I had to guess what's behind the insect decline I would point at UV-C radiation.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on September 28, 2019, 02:25:27 PM
Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 28, 2019, 04:44:12 PM
AGW Consequences September 28
Beyond the Headlines
https://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=19-P13-00039&segmentID=5
Quote
In this week's trip beyond the headlines, Peter Dykstra joins Host Steve Curwood to take a look at recurring devastation left behind by storms, and how quickly the media moves on from covering them. Then, the two discuss which nations are on track to meet their 2015 Paris Climate Accord goals and which are falling behind. Next Peter and Steve talk about a new law in Florida that could have a chilling effect on environmental challenges to projects. Finally, the two discuss the 2019 Arctic ice cover minimum as well as reminisce about a famous television evangelist who believed that he could pray a storm away.
Global Warming means more energy in the atmospheric system, which means more activity, which means more storm.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on September 28, 2019, 05:35:49 PM
Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.

I'm with you dnem.
Klondike, please have some empathy.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 28, 2019, 06:40:53 PM
Has more research been done on UV-C in solar radiation reaching the Earth surface?

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/251429767_Comment_on_Extreme_environments_in_the_forests_of_Ushuaia_Argentina_by_Hector_D'Antoni_et_al

The reviewer of this paper points that their measurements "must be wrong" just because the atmosphere would prevent UV-C radiation from touching the ground.

With sea ice declining, we get a smaller difference between weather in the arctic and the equator, more water vapour in the stratosphere and less ozone. Less ozone means less UV-C absorption.

If I had to guess what's behind the insect decline I would point at UV-C radiation.

That's a fascinating lead.  What pops up from that link is hard to read from my browser, but I'll be looking into this.

Edit:  further research suggests the exact nature of the instrument error likely to cause such peculiar findings:
Debunked: "Deadly Ultraviolet UV-C and UV-B Penetration to Earth’s Surface:" [Stray Light]
https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-deadly-ultraviolet-uv-c-and-uv-b-penetration-to-earth’s-surface-stray-light.t9627/ (https://www.metabunk.org/debunked-deadly-ultraviolet-uv-c-and-uv-b-penetration-to-earth’s-surface-stray-light.t9627/)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Ardeus on September 29, 2019, 09:31:30 AM
Thanks a lot for digging up that discussion. Good to know that it was a measurement flaw.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 29, 2019, 02:43:52 PM
Almost anything that has increased in recent decades could be “correlated” with climate change.  That does mean there is any connection.  Teen suicides are on the rise, but I doubt there are a result of global climate changes.

Jeez, KK, do you have kids?  I have one. Did you hear Greta's cri de coeur? Do you think the direction the human endeavor is heading in is making kids LESS anxious?  You may think everything's gonna be fine but the kids DON'T! Crikey.

Dnem, yes and they are all grown.  I also know parents who have dealt with this and not one could be attributed to climate.  Empathy is understanding, not using these events for activism.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on September 29, 2019, 03:19:44 PM
Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on September 29, 2019, 03:39:44 PM
<snip>
Empathy is understanding, not using these events for activism.

Empathy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empathy) is the capacity to place oneself in another lifeform's position.
It means being human!

Please consider the image below:
Your point seems to be: The little boy stands nearby and observes the situation and understands.
-> In reality the boy went to the girl who was in pain to comfort her! To touch. To assure. Human behaviour.

--
And I agree with dnem.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on September 29, 2019, 04:18:23 PM
You are all wasting your time. KkK has shown sufficient  intellectual capacity to understand the threat we all face, thus he does not have the benefit of ignorance that we can give others. He has obviously panicked about climate change and is trying to bring other down to the pits of panic with him. Like all other deniers, he has lost contact with reality due to fear. It is really not his fault at all. It is just a function of human psychology and the magnitude and scope of climate change.

This is on topic because panicky people like KkK and Trump actively hinder logical responses to climate change making the worst consequences of climate change worse.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 04:24:26 PM
It is really not his fault at all.

Well, Kant would disagree. I would too.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 29, 2019, 07:53:42 PM
Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet. 
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: zufall on September 29, 2019, 07:55:02 PM
I went to one of the first school strike events at the beginning of this year when they were not widely known. I had taken a day off, and the kids had made it clear that adults were welcome at their events. I just stood at the side and watched. It wasn't really organized, they had open microphone. A maybe 16-17 year old girl took the mike and said that she loved children more than anything and that she absolutely wanted to have children, but decided not to have any because she was so depressed and afraid of the future and that to think about the topic made her very sad. Of course she may later change her mind, who knows, but it was obvious that she totally meant what she said, and her words impressed me the most on that day. I don't doubt that many of her age think this way.

Side note: When I tried to relate the event to my friends which are in my generation (40-55), I found out that no one had heard about school strikes. It's my generation that is detached from reality (now maybe not so much anymore, but many try to escape the problem by simply not thinking and not talking about it).
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 29, 2019, 08:54:39 PM
AGW Consequences September 29

Arctic breakdown: what climate change in the far north means for the rest of us
https://theconversation.com/arctic-breakdown-what-climate-change-in-the-far-north-means-for-the-rest-of-us-123309?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=twitterbutton
Quote
In the Arctic, a summer of heat, melting and fire was rounded off by news that 2019 saw the second-lowest ever minimum extent of sea ice. That’s the point in early autumn each year when scientists say that the Arctic Ocean will begin to freeze again. By that measure, only 2012 had less sea ice than this year.
Meanwhile, the IPCC’s latest special report on the oceans and cryosphere was full of bad news (the cryosphere is that part of the earth system where water occurs in its frozen form, usually as snow or ice). The region’s glacier ice is retreating, the ground is thawing, forests are becoming a fire risk. Only people in low lying islands are as vulnerable to climate change as those in the Arctic, according to the IPCC.
The Arctic was the original focus of this forum, as I understand it. But AGW will affect everybody everywhere.

A possibly historic snow storm in the West plus a heat wave in the East — what’s going on?
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2019/09/28/historic-snow-storm-in-the-west-plus-a-heat-wave-in-the-east-whats-going-on/#.XZD7A0xFyUl
Quote
As the graphic above shows, the contiguous United States has seen a rising trend in the percentage of the region experiencing daily high temperatures that are much above normal. A similar rising trend has occurred in the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme one-day precipitation events.
At this point, it would be inappropriate to directly attribute both the developing northern Rockies early autumn snow storm, and the Eastern heat wave, to human-caused climate change. That kind of direct attribution takes detailed scientific detective work after the fact.
But what we’re seeing is part of a broader trend that research increasingly links to our influence on the climate.
Of course this is Arctic Amplification turning the Jet Stream from a straight line to a bunch of meandering waves. But of course the Deniers say "Two feet of snow in Colorado in September? Global Warming, BAH!"

‘Worse Than Anyone Expected’: Air Travel Emissions Vastly Outpace Predictions
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/climate/air-travel-emissions.html
Quote
Greenhouse gas emissions from commercial air travel are growing at a faster clip than predicted in previous, already dire, projections, according to new research — putting pressure on airline regulators to take stronger action as they prepare for a summit next week.

This means either we give up flying or the other consequences get a lot worse.

Arctic Sea Ice Hits 2nd Lowest on Record
https://weather.com/en-CA/international/videos/video/arctic-sea-ice-hits-2nd-lowest-on-record
Quote
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice has tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6 million square miles.
Already the Arctic Ocean is mostly ice free in September in a typical year, not a freak like 2012.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on September 30, 2019, 01:38:04 PM
Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

Archimid is obviously correct.  Even if she is wrong, Greta stopped eating and speaking bc she was so distraught over climate change. She literally stunted her fucking growth bc of it. Do you think she is the only kid on the planet to be affected? You are a heartless person.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on September 30, 2019, 02:08:06 PM
Directly attributable? Of course not. Is the dramatically worsening climate situation adding to a rising sense of anxiety and unease in kids today? I think you'd have to be blind to say that it is not.

I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.


Archimid is obviously correct.  Even if she is wrong, Greta stopped eating and speaking bc she was so distraught over climate change. She literally stunted her fucking growth bc of it. Do you think she is the only kid on the planet to be affected? You are a heartless person.

Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.  I disagree vehemently.  This technique is a proven failure.  I am sorry if truth and facts appear heartless.  But identifier single individuals among the masses to change opinions is what politicians do, not scientists.  This thread is not about individuals, but the bigger picture.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on September 30, 2019, 05:19:36 PM
Quote
Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.

Wrong. My "agenda" is to portray the risk to the best of my understanding to promote action. It is not an exaggeration to say that we may be ice free in the North Pole in September next decade. It is downright likely. The consequences of this event ( or continuum of events that already started) will be catastrophic for the North Hemisphere and the world at large. We are just at the beginning of it and insurance is already failing.

The threat is as real as it gets. Fear is 100% warranted and expected. If you do not feel fear about this, then you do not understand the danger.

As Donald Trump clearly shows fear is one of the most powerful motivators of humans at a society level. Trump exploits xenophobia to make some Americans scared shitless of brown children to such an extent that they exert cruel and unusual punishment and violate their human rights to keep them away. They love it because it appeases fear, however fake the fear is, and Trump takes full advantage of it.

Fear of climate change is completely warranted. That fear will cause action, if properly channeled that fear will produce the correct action against the real threat. Denying the danger blunts the actual fear that we should have, blunting action.

Fear of real danger is very good and a necesary response to activate human defenses.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on September 30, 2019, 05:34:34 PM
^^
I completely agree Archimid. Thanks for those true words.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 30, 2019, 06:58:54 PM
New Zealand tourism sees threat if climate change deters long-haul flyers
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/116193329/climate-change-threat-for-tourism-sparks-research-on-impact
Quote
A report on New Zealand's tourism industry says concerns about carbon emissions pose a threat to long haul travel and the industry's future.
A Ministry of Business Innovation and Employment (MBIE) report on Tourism New Zealand (TNZ) released on Monday highlighted the challenges it will face.
They include softening international growth, fierce competition for customers, and the risk of carbon emissions affecting travel choices, particularly for long haul trips.
More jobs lost, and less chance to travel. Not a good future.

RPT-Drought-hit Australian towns prepare for 'unimaginable' water crisis
https://www.reuters.com/article/australia-drought/rpt-drought-hit-australian-towns-prepare-for-unimaginable-water-crisis-idUSL3N26K0DC
Quote
* Some regional Australian towns have trucked in drinking water
* Several towns forecast to hit ‘day zero’ next year
* The drought is party driven by warmer sea and air temperatures
* Farm production is declining, hurting Australia’s economy
I live in the Great Lakes area, so drought is not a problem here. Even in 1988, Maple Heights had fireworks by firehosing the launch field. But not everybody is so lucky.

In Dorian's wake, Bahamas appeals for climate action at UN
https://www.wxyz.com/news/political/national/in-dorians-wake-bahamas-appeals-for-climate-action-at-un
Quote
As the Bahamas strives to recover from Hurricane Dorian, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis appealed to world leaders Friday to tackle climate change — and encouraged travelers to visit to help the country rebuild.
Of course that would require more tourism, exacerbating global warming and thus making more major hurricanes...

Ticks and Climate Change Impact on Moose
https://www.wagmtv.com/content/news/Ticks-and-Climate-Change-Impact-on-Moose-561707531.html
Quote
The devastating toll of ticks on New England's moose herd has caused the region's population to shrink, and experts worry it could get worse with climate change. The northern New England states are home to thousands of moose, but the herd has dwindled in the last decade, in part because of the winter ticks.
Don't ticks also spread disease to humans?

Climate Risk in the Housing Market Has Echoes of Subprime Crisis, Study Finds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/climate/mortgage-climate-risk.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
Quote
Banks are shielding themselves from climate change at taxpayers’ expense by shifting riskier mortgages — such as those in coastal areas — off their books and over to the federal government, new research suggests.
After hurricanes, mortgage lenders offload more of their vulnerable loans to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, whose rules prevent them from saying no. Next financial crisis?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 01, 2019, 07:43:43 PM
AGW Consequences for October 1

Climate Change Is Decimating Mojave Desert Birds
https://laist.com/2019/09/30/climate-change-mojave-desert-birds-death-heat-water.php
Quote
We found out last year that hotter, drier weather due to climate change is likely causing bird populations in the Mojave Desert to collapse at an alarming rate. A new study published today suggests one big reason why: Birds are having a hard time staying hydrated, which means they're having a hard time staying cool.
Over the past century, temperatures in the Mojave Desert have risen about 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit, while precipitation has declined in some parts. That's coincided with a roughly 40 percent decrease in the number of bird species documented there.
I would have expected the Mojave to have warmed less than that, since it would not be subject to Arctic Amplification

U.S. taxpayers are at risk for homes threatened by climate change
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/banks-shift-mortgages-on-disaster-prone-properties-to-taxpayers-study-shows/
Quote
Banks are selling mortgages on homes in coastal areas around the U.S. that are vulnerable to natural disasters to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a study finds.
That could leave taxpayers footing the bill because the two government-sponsored enterprises buy the mortgages without adequately accounting for the heightened property risks.
"Climate change could lead to a 'Big Short' kind of crisis," one of the study's authors said.
Are you an American taxpayer? If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

CLIMATE CHANGE MAY TAKE AWAY YOUR ABILITY TO FLUSH THE TOILET
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-stop-flushing-toilets-1462121
Quote
A new United Nations report states that rising sea levels could render as many as 60 million toilets inoperable in the United States alone, as traditional septic systems are threatened by increased groundwater.
About 1 in 5 American households rely on septic systems to handle their toilet waste, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. These systems work by draining flushed toilets into an underground tank, where bacteria breaks it down into water and solid sludge. That water moves through an outflow tube into a drainage field.
However, as sea levels rise, those drainage fields are becoming saturated, preventing them from absorbing liquid from septic tanks. In addition, erosion removes the necessary soft earth to filter out pollutants, resulting in public health hazards and groundwater contamination.
I never thought toilet flushing would be a problem.
I have nightmares about not being able to flush the toilet!

At a Cambodian Lake, a Climate Crisis Unfolds
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/30/opinion/tonle-sap-cambodia-climate.html
Quote
A trifecta of climate change, hydropower dams and illegal fishing are threatening the Tonle Sap, and the people who rely on its fish.
Illegal fishing might yield to more law enforcement, and maybe dams can be prevented by civil action, but AGW is a toughie.

Climate Change Threatens the World’s Fisheries, Food Billions of People Rely On
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27092019/ocean-fish-diet-climate-change-impact-food-ipcc-report-cryosphere
Quote
Fisheries are often overlooked when researchers and policymakers focus on land-based agriculture as the primary food source for a growing global population, yet fish are an essential protein source for 3.2 billion people and provide 17 percent of the world's animal protein. They're especially important in some developing tropical countries that rely on fish for 70 percent of their nutrition.
"The changes in the oceans will have direct impacts on people who are depending on these systems for food," said William Cheung, a professor from the University of British Columbia and a lead author of the report's chapter covering fisheries.
The scientists determined that the sustainable fish catch—the amount of fish that can be caught without decimating populations—could drop by as much as a quarter by the end of the century if greenhouse gas emissions continue on their current trajectory.
Of course those developing countries in the Tropics have some of the fastest growth rates of anyplace on Earth.

Calm Before the Storm
https://newrepublic.com/article/154942/america-nuclear-power-plants-climate-change-risk-fukushima
Quote
The chance of a nuclear accident releasing significant radioactivity and harming the public is “very small,” according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the federal agency whose mission is, in part, “to provide reasonable assurance of adequate protection of public health and safety.” But as sea levels rise, a flawed understanding of climate science and the outsize influence that the U.S. nuclear industry exerts on the NRC have converged, increasing the risk of disastrous flood-induced accidents at coastal nuclear power plants around the United States.
How about a coastal Chernobyl at your favorite seaside site?


'We know they aren't feeding': fears for polar bears over shrinking Arctic ice
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/29/polar-bears-arctic-sea-ice-environment
Quote
The loss of Arctic ice from glaciers, polar land and sea is increasing faster than many scientists expected, as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) report on oceans and the cryosphere said this week.
That’s bad news for polar bear populations, a top expert involved in field studies on the endangered animals has told the Guardian.
This year’s annual minimum of the Arctic sea ice tied with the second-lowest extent on record, a mere 1.6m sq miles, and badly affected polar bear populations that live and hunt on the north slope of Alaska, plus those that live on the ice floes in the Bering Sea.
How did polar bears survive the Eemian? Or hadn't they evolved yet? Or was the Eemian still filled with Arctic Ice?

Yellow Fever And Malaria In The US? With Climate Crisis, It's Within The Realm Of Possibility
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/09/30/infectious-disease-climate-change
Quote
"For instance, mosquitoes are animals that really depend on water in order to breed. And they also tend to be more active at higher temperatures. So as we see rising temperatures, increased rainfall worldwide, we see an increase in the range and number of mosquitoes. For example, Aedes species mosquitoes, which spread diseases like dengue, Zika virus, chikungunya, West Nile virus; currently about 50% of the world population is susceptible to being bitten by those mosquitoes. We expect that to increase as the climate continues to warm."
I wonder if I will die of one of these "tropical" diseases?

Climate change is changing the flavor of French wine
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/09/wine-harvest-dates-earlier-climate-change/
Quote
Now, a nearly 700-year-long record of harvest dates from the town of Beaune, in Burgundy, shows that early harvest dates like the one from 1540 are now par for the course, thanks to climate change. Scientists and historians stitched together a record of grape harvest dates going back to 1354. They found that air temperatures have warmed so much—and especially in the last 30 years—that grapes are now harvested almost two weeks before their historical norm.
“We can clearly see the reaction of the grapes to the rise in temperature,” says Thomas Labbé, an historian at the University of Leipzig.
And that reaction is changing the wine itself.
I only drink wine at Communion, but I still don't want it to change.

Australia’s vast carbon sink releasing millions of tonnes of CO2 back into atmosphere
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/01/australias-vast-carbon-sink-releasing-millions-of-tonnes-of-co2-back-into-atmosphere
Quote
Serrano said: “When these ecosystems are damaged by storms, heatwaves, dredging or other human development, the carbon dioxide stored in their biomass and soils beneath them can make its way back into the environment, contributing to climate change.
“Globally, vegetated coastal ecosystems are being lost twice as fast as tropical rainforests despite covering a fraction of the area.”
Just one more feedback of many...

The Displaced: I lost my house to climate change
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-49859408/the-displaced-i-lost-my-house-to-climate-change
Quote
Vietnam is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change - we meet the families on the front lines.
How likely are you to lose your home to AGW?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on October 01, 2019, 08:44:25 PM
If in another nation, how does your country "do it"?

🙈🙉🙊 << Like that.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: aperson on October 01, 2019, 09:30:57 PM
I can see quite clearly that it is not a cause of anxiety and unease.  Sorry, but the climate situation is not the cause of every ill on this planet.

I imagine it's pretty easy to see that when your entire posting career is one Type II error after another.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on October 02, 2019, 04:58:34 AM
Hope without fear blunts the reaction.
Fear without hope induces panic.
DON'T PANIC.

There is green left. There is life left. Amazing people have been working to solve this for years, each one with their small part of the big puzzle. Solutions are emerging. Humans can do this.

We do need to hurry. It is already too late for some.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2019, 06:19:33 PM
Quote
Archimid has a separate agenda - that of exaggerated the effects in order to promote action.

Wrong. My "agenda" is to portray the risk to the best of my understanding to promote action. It is not an exaggeration to say that we may be ice free in the North Pole in September next decade. It is downright likely. The consequences of this event ( or continuum of events that already started) will be catastrophic for the North Hemisphere and the world at large. We are just at the beginning of it and insurance is already failing.

The threat is as real as it gets. Fear is 100% warranted and expected. If you do not feel fear about this, then you do not understand the danger.

As Donald Trump clearly shows fear is one of the most powerful motivators of humans at a society level. Trump exploits xenophobia to make some Americans scared shitless of brown children to such an extent that they exert cruel and unusual punishment and violate their human rights to keep them away. They love it because it appeases fear, however fake the fear is, and Trump takes full advantage of it.

Fear of climate change is completely warranted. That fear will cause action, if properly channeled that fear will produce the correct action against the real threat. Denying the danger blunts the actual fear that we should have, blunting action.

Fear of real danger is very good and a necesary response to activate human defenses.

Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.  The evidence that this state will be catastrophic is severly lacking.

Fearmongering will not help the situation.  All it has done in the past is alienate the populace, who relate the fearmongerers to other Armageddon prophets.  The best approach is to educate the people on the real consequences and timing of such.  Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on October 02, 2019, 06:29:32 PM
<snip>
Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.

"Fearmongering"
Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.

You are desperate and searching in corners with 2031-2029>0. You also lie in your last sentence! I think you are scared and have low morality. Something you can change :) .
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 02, 2019, 06:41:47 PM
AGW Consequences October 2

Science data struggles to keep up with climate change
https://www.thecordovatimes.com/2019/10/01/science-data-struggles-to-keep-up-with-climate-change/
Quote
To assess the pace of change in cumulative human impacts (CHI) they calculated and mapped the cumulative impact of 14 stressors related to human activities, which included climate change, fishing and land-based pressures, on 12 marine ecosystems globally for each of 11 years spanning 2003 to 2013. The stressors included ocean acidification, sea surface temperature, sea level rise, shipping, nutrient pollution, organic pollution, direct human, light pollution, five types of commercial fishing and artisanal fishing.
Halpern and Frazer said they found that 59 percent of the ocean is experiencing significantly increasing cumulative impact, in particularly from climate change, but also from fishing, land- based pollution and shipping.
According to Frazier “increasing greenhouse gas emissions have resulted in large increases in ocean temperature which impact many ocean habitats and animals.”
AGW is comparable to the other 13 stressors combined.

Climate change means the government faces more costs from natural disasters. If only it admitted it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/climate-change-means-government-faces-more-costs-natural-disasters-if-ncna1059901
Quote
Hurricanes might not be becoming more frequent, but they are certainly becoming more intense, and they are doing so in ways consistent with the predicted impacts of climate change. We only need to look as far as the Caribbean to observe this in the extraordinary damage caused by Hurricane Dorian this September — flooded houses, destroyed cars and swamped infrastructure that caused scores of deaths.
Human settlements are getting more vulnerable to those hazards as the climate changes around them. Climate change can speed erosion and change shorelines and vegetation patterns, reducing natural barriers and making it harder to mitigate the devastation.
Don't worry. The US government is only twenty-odd trillion dollars in debt, plus a hundred plus trillion in unfunded liabilities. :D

Climate Change Could Lead to More Conflict Between Species as They Adapt and Move, Increasing Extinctions
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-conflict-species-adapt-move-1462402
Quote
Climate change poses an existential threat to many animal species on the planet. Now, research suggests that species are going to come into conflict with one another as they genetically adapt or migrate to more suitable habitats.
I know mongooses are at war with snakes, but now they will be at war with everything?

As tick-borne illness spreads across the U.S., so does grassroots education to prevent it
https://ensia.com/articles/as-tick-borne-illness-spreads-across-the-u-s-so-does-grassroots-education-to-prevent-it/
Quote
According to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), climate change is likely increasing the risk of Lyme disease. Rising temperatures have led to an expansion in tick ranges and have allowed more regions to become suitable for tick proliferation. Additionally, shorter winters can increase the portion of the year during which ticks are active and able to transmit Lyme disease.
The description of LD in the article sounds nasty. I do not want to catch it!

The strange, uncertain fate of Alaska’s biggest wild salmon habitat
https://thefern.org/2019/10/the-strange-uncertain-fate-of-alaskas-biggest-wild-salmon-habitat/
Quote
For her generation of fishermen, investing here is more of a gamble than ever. Twin threats hang over this place where many of America’s salmon dinners come from: a rapidly warming climate, which has already scrambled the pattern of the seasons across vast swaths of Alaska, and Pebble Mine, a proposed open pit mine at the bay’s headwaters, which has been given new life by Donald Trump’s administration. Many who live and fish here, including Hoover, worry that once the mine is built, pollution is inevitable and that together these two forces could destroy this rare, pristine ecosystem, threatening salmon, communities, and whole ways of life.
I used to get Salmon at lunch at the Mandarin Seafood Buffet. Now they don't offer it then...too expensive. Is this why?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2019, 06:58:17 PM
<snip>
Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.

"Fearmongering"
Past fearmongering has delayed action by decades.

You are desperate and searching in corners with 2031-2029>0. You also lie in your last sentence! I think you are scared and have low morality. Something you can change :) .

I think you might improve your credibility by not resorting to name-calling those with whom you disagree. 
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on October 02, 2019, 07:10:36 PM
There is no name calling there. He calls out one lie and the rest is prefaced by ´i think´.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2019, 07:39:49 PM
There is no name calling there. He calls out one lie and the rest is prefaced by ´i think´.

That is a cope out response.  Prefacing a verbal attack by "i think" in no way changes the intent.  Additionally, there was no lie.  That is just another verbal attack.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on October 02, 2019, 07:45:24 PM
How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 02, 2019, 08:33:24 PM
How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.

You must be realtively new to the issue.  A few examples include the 2005 season being the new "normal" for hurricanes.  Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.  50 million climate refugees by 2010.  It is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.  My personal favorite is snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event (although this might be welcome news to some).  What about the predictions of an ice-free Arctic in 2008? 

The reason that the issue has not been important is these ridiculous claims.  Granted, many people are little concerned about consequences decades into the future.  However, claiming that these consequences were imminent (in order to pursuade people to act) wound up making their claimants appear as chicken littles.  The general populous may not be the most intelligent, but they are not all together stupid either.  If someone makes enough false claims, they will begin to question the accurate ones also.  Presenting the issue in a factual manner is the best approach.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on October 02, 2019, 09:31:58 PM
How did past fearmongering delay action? Any concrete example of that?

I don´t recall any fearmongering. For most people the issue was never important.

You must be realtively new to the issue.  A few examples include the 2005 season being the new "normal" for hurricanes.  Entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.  50 million climate refugees by 2010.  It is possible that carbon dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020.  My personal favorite is snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event (although this might be welcome news to some).  What about the predictions of an ice-free Arctic in 2008? 

The reason that the issue has not been important is these ridiculous claims.  Granted, many people are little concerned about consequences decades into the future.  However, claiming that these consequences were imminent (in order to pursuade people to act) wound up making their claimants appear as chicken littles.  The general populous may not be the most intelligent, but they are not all together stupid either.  If someone makes enough false claims, they will begin to question the accurate ones also.  Presenting the issue in a factual manner is the best approach.
I disagree with KK frequently but he is correct here. It is also why a shrieking teenager like Greta is very bad for the message re: what actually needs to be done. It is easy to get hysterical (I have done this myself) when the news is XYZ is happening and the world will end in 5 years. It is hard to remember the news is designed to sell advertising via your fear. And a child like Greta does not even realize that the news is selling ads via fear (in fact Greta is helping them monetize despair / etc).

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 02, 2019, 11:11:31 PM
Quote
Fearmongering will not help the situation.  All it has done in the past is alienate the populace, who relate the fearmongerers to other Armageddon prophets. ...
I think fearmongering by a populist leader can move mountains.  Think "war hysteria".  (I don't like the mountain being moved, but that's another issue.)

I prefer the research that finds that non-violent movements are much more likely to succeed than violent ones. (e.g., here (http://globalcomment.com/which-is-more-effective-violent-or-nonviolent-resistance/))
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on October 03, 2019, 12:32:18 AM
I don´t think any of the publicity related to those events did anything. For the majority of people it always was a ´someone else will fix it´ problem or not even on the radar.

Anyway we need action now and that is not fearmongering so it is good that people are starting to put pressure on governments with the protests and also targeted legal action.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: VideoGameVet on October 03, 2019, 02:29:55 AM
Wili, the Kochs spend so much money on misinformation campaigns that your uncle heard climate 'change is a hoax' 100 times more often than the truth. Marketing works.

And for any dollar spend on manipulating the public opinion they earned 100 times the amount by keeping polluting the earth.

Yep

(https://i.imgur.com/Ce6j1qZh.jpg)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on October 03, 2019, 05:24:20 AM

Odd, as your loast post in when will the arctic be ice-free thread stated that an ice-free condition will occur around 2031 - definitely not next decade.  The evidence that this state will be catastrophic is severly lacking.

Your fear plays tricks on you. I said it was likely to happen next decade, and I said it because to the best of my understanding the most likely date is somewhere around 2031 plus or minus some years. A BOE could happen any year now, given a low enough max volume like  2016-2017 and a strong melt season like 2012, 2016 and 2019. Thus the event of an ice-free Arctic next decade is very possible.


On the destructiveness of an ice-free arctic on the NH climate, I'm so sorry that you don't get it. It is difficult to explain the obvious to someone who doesn't want to understand the obvious.

A very dry, cold, old, central and large part of the world is undergoing an extraordinarily fast change. That change propagates to the rest of the NH. Climate Change like this happened before in the history of the earth, but never as fast (except the dinosaurs) and always followed by extinction.

A change this large, this fast, has certainly not happened in the history of human civilization, much less to a modern world with 7 billion people.
 

Quote
Fearmongering will not help the situation. 

 I am not fearmongering, because the threat is as real as it gets. I'm warning whoever would listen about the threat as best as I understand it, and I have made a considerable effort in understanding the threat.

On the other hand, you are telling people to ignore the danger. Pffft. I almost feel sorry for you when you finally realize your error.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nukefix on October 03, 2019, 10:10:03 AM
Yep
(https://i.imgur.com/Ce6j1qZh.jpg)
What is the original source of this graph?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 03, 2019, 02:58:13 PM
Archimid, it is not a matter of "getting it."  I "get it."  We just differ on the outcome.  The arctic sea ice minimum has decreased by more than 40% over the last three decades.  The changes that have resulted have not been catastrophic.  What makes you think that another 40% will make such a big difference.  I am not the only scientist who disagrees with your prediction.

https://climatetippingpoints.info/2019/04/02/fact-check-will-an-ice-free-arctic-trigger-a-climate-catastrophe/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2019, 05:07:08 PM
Nature abhors a straight line though a straight line might fit the data for a good many years.

Many natural systems can take punishment with little visible effect for a long time until......
My favourite one is adding nitrates and phosphates to a water body with little impact. Then a tiny bit more and poof! Eutrophication.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 03, 2019, 07:39:20 PM
In Saratoga Springs, experts talk climate change impacts on invasive species
https://www.timesunion.com/news/article/In-Saratoga-Springs-experts-talk-climate-change-14486536.php
Quote
“Longer growing seasons are virtually certain,” said Bethany Bradley, an associate professor of ecology at the University of Massachusetts. With longer seasons due to earlier springs, almost all plants will do better. And  more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can also promote plant growth. But invasive species – plants, insects or animals — are so-named in part because of their ability to out-compete other species.
Good news/Bad news joke:
Good news - in the long run invasive species are good for biodiversity.
Bad news - the long run is about ten million years.

Soaring eagle films crumbling Alpine glaciers as Earth warms
https://www.kansascity.com/news/nation-world/article235715672.html
Quote
Disintegrating permafrost, which now glues a glacier’s rocks together, can cause them to crumble with potentially devastating consequences.
Victor’s flight comes as Italian authorities are scrambling to respond to fears that part of a large Italian glacier near Mont Blanc is on the verge of collapsing. They’ve warned that falling ice could endanger homes and people in the Val Ferret area, a popular hiking area.
At the rate the planet is warming, it’s too late to save the Alps’ glaciers, Freedom Conservation Managing Director Ronald Menzel said. But it’s not too late to fight climate change more broadly. He hopes Victor’s popularity will spur viewers into action.
There are no glaciers within a couple thousand miles of me. Someday there may be none anywhere.

Climate change is coming for our toilets. Here’s how we can stop it.
https://grist.org/article/climate-change-is-coming-for-our-toilets-heres-how-we-can-stop-it/
Quote
While the report is not specifically about your bathroom, per se, it shows how a stealthy threat — sea-level rise — could make it more difficult for people with septic systems to flush their toilets. A brief primer on septic systems, which are common in rural areas: The stuff in your toilet goes into an underground tank, where it breaks down (I’m gagging) and gets drained out into a leach field (gross) that’s at least 20 feet from your house. In order to function properly, those drainage fields have to be relatively dry.
My late uncle had a septic tank and had all kinds of problems with it even without sea level rise (he lived in Ohio like me). This is one problem I would not want.

STORM FORCE Storm Lorenzo – Climate change expert’s grim warning for Ireland as he predicts Storm Lorenzo is ‘sign of things to come’
https://www.thesun.ie/news/4615021/irish-weather-forecast-storm-lorenzo-climate-change-warning/
Quote
Dr O'Dwyer said that as the earth heats up as a result of climate change, there is more moisture in the atmosphere than cooler air - which is then available to storm systems.
He told the Irish Sun: "As the earth warms as a result of manmade climate change, the atmosphere can contain more moisture than cooler air.
"This extra moisture is available to storm systems, resulting in heavier rainfall. Climate projections suggest an increase in the occurrence of hurricanes into the future."
And he cautioned that Ireland is not ready to feel the force of such weather events.
284 years passed between the Great Storms of 1703 and 1987. How long till the next one?

n Houston, a Rash of Storms Tests the Limits of Coping With Climate Change
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/02/climate/hurricane-adaptation-houston.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate
Quote
Houston’s challenge reflects the dilemma facing cities everywhere: As the climate changes, disasters aren’t just becoming more severe, but also more frequent. So even as the amount of damage increases, governments and residents have less time to repair before the next storm hits. And structural changes that might reduce cities’ exposure require years or decades to complete.
And by the time those adaptations are installed, the effects have grown even greater still.

Washington's coastal tribes are working to escape rising sea levels. A bill in D.C. could help
https://crosscut.com/2019/10/washingtons-coastal-tribes-are-working-escape-rising-sea-levels-bill-dc-could-help
Quote
For the Native tribes that have historically lived along Washington’s Pacific coast, the threat of rising waters is real and imminent. As a result, many must grapple with the forced relocation of entire villages to higher ground before their homes are submerged.
D.C. might be able to pay for thousands of Indians to move. Will they be able to pay for millions of people?

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: VideoGameVet on October 04, 2019, 12:04:55 AM
Yep
(https://i.imgur.com/Ce6j1qZh.jpg)
What is the original source of this graph?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2019/03/25/oil-and-gas-giants-spend-millions-lobbying-to-block-climate-change-policies-infographic/#dd75afb7c4fb
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 04, 2019, 04:40:23 PM
‘Prepare now or pay later’: Financial regulators must account for climate change risk to corporate bottom lines, Citigroup says
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/02/financial-regulators-climate-change-risk-to-corporate-bottom-lines.html
Quote
Financial regulators must transform how they account for the economic risks of climate change, Citigroup said in a new report Wednesday.
The report on climate risk comes shortly after a slew of extreme weather events across the world.
Most recently, Hurricane Dorian stalled over and decimated the Bahamas, and raging wildfires have destroyed a large swath of Amazon and Bolivian rainforests.
For major companies across the world, trillions of dollars are at stake as climate change threatens to disrupt their supply chains.
A trillion here, a trillion there, and pretty soon you are talking real money.

Amazon wildfires causing spike in children's breathing problems
https://www.channel3000.com/health/amazon-wildfires-causing-spike-in-childrens-breathing-problems/1128589519
Quote
Wildfires raging in the Amazon rainforest are driving a spike in breathing problems and hospitalizations among children in Brazil, according to a new report.
The fires, which have now been burning for months, are posing "a major risk to the health of the population," said the report, published Wednesday by public health research institute Oswaldo Cruz Foundation
My cousin in Colorado commented how bad the air was there from the fires, and Colorado doesn't hold a candle to Brazil.

Heartbreaking photos show emaciated grizzly bears wandering through the Canadian wilderness after freak salmon shortage caused by warming waters and open fish farming - just one month before they're supposed to go into hibernation
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7532501/Heartbreaking-photos-emaciated-grizzly-bears-Canada-salmon-shortage.html
Quote
Shocking photos of an emaciated mother grizzly bear and her two starving cubs have gone viral
Photographer Rolf Hicker snapped the animals searching for food on the Knight Inlet in British Columbia
He said he saw the bears several times, desperately searching for food amid a salmon shortage
Commercial fishermen in British Columbia have called this year the worst salmon season in nearly 50 years
A report by Fisheries and Oceans Canada said that climate change is negatively impacting the fish stocks
Each little hole in the ecoweb weakens the natural environment a little more. Eventually it will collapse.

Record Heat Thrusts Hawaii Corals Into ‘New Era’ Of Bleaching
https://www.civilbeat.org/2019/10/record-heat-thrusts-hawaii-corals-into-new-era-of-bleaching/
Quote
The reefs have never had to endure such conditions. Marine scientists remain optimistic but warn that time is running out for society to step up.
Corals survived the Permian Extinction. Will they survive the Holocene Extinction?

Tracking the Atlantic Ocean's Inland Creep in Miami-Dade County
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/tracking-the-atlantic-oceans-inland-creep-in-miami-dade-county/
Quote
Rising seas are a visible threat to coastal areas. But the danger above is mirrored below in the form of rising salt concentrations in many coastal aquifers. In Miami-Dade County, the USGS study mapped the boundary where salt water meets the base of the Biscayne. Because it is less dense, fresh water sits on top of the saltwater wedge, which is thickest near the coast and thinner inland
Will it be "Water, water, everywhere, and nary a drop to drink?

Radical warming in Siberia leaves millions on unstable ground
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-siberia/
Quote
A Washington Post analysis found that the region near the town of Zyryanka, in an enormous wedge of eastern Siberia called Yakutia, has warmed by more than 3 degrees Celsius since preindustrial times — roughly triple the global average.
The permafrost that once sustained farming — and upon which villages and cities are built — is in the midst of a great thaw, blanketing the region with swamps, lakes and odd bubbles of earth that render the land virtually useless.
You would think Siberia would welcome warmer weather, but this shows the answer is "Nope!"
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 04, 2019, 11:04:43 PM
Quote
Corals survived the Permian Extinction. Will they survive the Holocene Extinction?
The end-Permian extinction event, "during which 96% of marine species were wiped out" [link (http://globalreefproject.com/coral-reef-history.php)] had remarkably different kinds of corals before and after the extinction.  Yes, corals then and corals now, but with a 1.5 million year gap in-between, it's like saying "reptiles before and reptiles after the extinction event", with no regard to what type of reptiles.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 06, 2019, 08:08:40 PM

A monster grew in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s why more may follow
https://www.jacksonville.com/news/20191005/monster-grew-in-gulf-of-mexico-heres-why-more-may-follow
Quote
Hurricane Michael grew to Category 5 prowess in an overly warm Gulf of Mexico that likely will continue to heat with climate change.
In the record-hot Florida fall of 2018, Hurricane Michael was rabid with hidden energy absorbed from a Gulf of Mexico 4 to 6 degrees warmer than normal
And the sea level in the Gulf of Mexico is rising. And the land is sinking. Get ready to move!

This depressing map of the Arctic lets you track 40 years of melting sea ice
https://www.fastcompany.com/90412968/this-depressing-map-of-the-arctic-lets-you-track-40-years-of-melting-sea-ice
Quote
As the world reckons with a climate in crisis, marching in the streets, and demanding world leaders and corporate honchos act to get greenhouse-gas emissions under control, oceans are storing the excess heat made by humankind’s bad choices. As the ocean warms, temperatures under the world’s ice sheets heat up. And as everyone who has ever waited too long to chug a slushy knows, when ice gets warm, it melts. That includes some of the older ice that one NASA researcher says serves as an “insurance policy” for the rest of the ice pack.
Will we live to see this forum's main topic become just a memory?

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: bbr2314 on October 06, 2019, 11:53:48 PM
The worst consequence of AGW could also technically be its solution. New modeling shows a nuclear exchange on the Indian subcontinent would be very effective in overwhelming the warming residual from +GHG. I wonder if Washington, Moscow, Beijing, London, Paris, Pyongyang, and Tel Aviv would sacrifice a billion or three untouchables so way of life for the elites can continue. I would think it would be perceived to be a reasonable trade-off.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/10/misery-of-a-nuclear-war-between-india-and-pakistan-would-be-global/

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/nuclear_war_india_pakistan_SI-7-800x387.png)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 08, 2019, 03:47:16 PM
bbr2314:
Nuclear winter lasts on the scale of months to years.
Global Warming lasts on the scale of centuries to millennia.
Do we have to have a thousand nuclear wars to solve this problem permanently?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 08, 2019, 04:26:00 PM
Climate change poses menace to wild bees
https://www.dailysabah.com/environment/2019/10/07/climate-change-poses-menace-to-wild-bees
Quote
With many wild bee species only able to survive within specific temperature ranges, global warming has placed the global bee population in peril.
"Global warming is believed to be a major driver of wild bee declines. Some wild bees can only survive in a narrow range of temperatures. As their habitats get warmer, the places where they can live grow smaller," said Philip Donkersley, senior research associate in entomology – the study of insects – at the U.K.'s Lancaster University.
I once read if all the bees died, humanity would be extinct in two years.

The Gulf Of Maine Is Warming, And Its Whales Are Disappearing
https://www.wgbh.org/news/local-news/2019/10/06/the-gulf-of-maine-is-warming-and-its-whales-are-disappearing
Quote
But lately, the whales have been harder and harder to find. Waters in the gulf have been warming, sending the whales' food supply searching for cooler temperatures. The whales have gone with them. Some days this summer, Parker says he didn't spot a single one. Business fell 20%, forcing him to cut his season short.
When they run out of cooler water maybe we can send the Starship Enterprise back in time to get some if Vger comes.

Diseases like West Nile, EEE and flesh-eating bacteria are flourishing due to climate change
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/10/05/climate-change-worsen-diseases-equine-encephalitis-west-nile-dengue-fever/3859382002/
Quote
An outbreak of a deadly and rare brain disease has killed at least 11 people in the United States so far this year. Scientists say the mosquito-borne illness, Eastern equine encephalitis, may be worse because of unseasonably warm temperatures. It’s one of just several diseases scientists worry are being affected by climate change.
Which tropical disease do you want to die from?

OPINION: Climate crisis: We are running out of time
http://www.thedutchharborfisherman.com/article/1941climate_crisis_we_are_running_out_of_time
Quote
Our Yupik people of Sivuqaq (our traditional name for St. Lawrence Island) are witnesses to the massive die-offs of seabirds, seals and whales. We have coexisted with these animals for thousands of years. These massive die-offs are a warning to us all and a threat to our culture and to the very existence of our Sivuqaq Yupik people of Alaska and the Arctic. We are overwhelmed with concern about the health harms associated with climate change, the loss of sea ice and melting permafrost and the mobilization of chemicals and plastics — these are all interconnected.
We are running out of time!
Actually, we have probably already run out of time.

Peruvian Glaciers Have Shrunk By 30 Percent Since 2000
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/peruvian-glaciers-have-shrunk-by-30-percent-since-2000
Quote
Nearly 30 percent of Peru’s glaciers have melted away since 2000, threatening a critical source of drinking water and irrigation for millions of people downstream, according to a new study published in the journal The Cryosphere. Overall, the country lost nearly 8 gigatons of ice from 2000 to 2016, with 170 glaciers — covering an area equivalent to 80,000 soccer fields — disappearing entirely.
If it's not one thing it is another. No part of the world will escape the consequences og AGW.

In the Mountains, Climate Change Is Disrupting Everything, from How Water Flows to When Plants Flower
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/07102019/mountain-climate-change-disruption-glaciers-water-ecosystems-agriculture-plants-food
Quote
With ominous orange-gray smoke clouds seething on the western horizon, it's easy to understand how Colorado's highest city and other mountain communities are directly threatened by global warming.
Mountain snowpack is shrinking and melting earlier in the spring. Warmer and longer summers dry out vegetation and increase the threat of wildfires in western mountain forests, where the fire season has lengthened by at least a month since 1979.
The growing wildfire risk is just part of an accelerating cycle of global warming impacts in the world's mountain regions, according to a new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that includes a section focused on mountains for the first time in more than 20 years.
We will be killed by the Orient Express method...a dozen different things working together to finish us off.

Tropical fish, microplastics and disappearing beaches: Climate change along the Central Coast
https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/kcrw-features/tropical-fish-microplastic-and-disappearing-beaches-climate-change-along-the-central-coast
Quote
Butterfly Beach in Montecito is popular among beachgoers. But 30 years from now, there won’t be much of it left to enjoy.
“You're going to have more hours a day where the waves are just lapping up onto the seawall,” said Monique Myers, a California Sea Grant researcher studying the vulnerability of Santa Barbara’s coast.
Sea levels are expected to rise by about a foot by 2050, according to Myers.
And while coasts are getting too much water, interiors are in drought. It's like having to pee while dying of thirst.

What Climate Change Could Do to Cities' Power to Borrow Money
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/climate-change-could-make-borrowing-costlier-states-and-cities/599464/
Quote
Someday soon, analysts will determine that a city or county, or maybe a school district or utility, is so vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding, drought, or wildfire that it is an investment risk.
Already many cities are in a cash crisis situation. What happens if they become considered climate risks?

New England winters are on the decline due to climate change, study says
https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2019/10/07/study-new-england-winters-are-decline-due-climate-change/vvlEmJw38WyF5fIpS7jABP/story.html
Quote
New Englanders may take cold, snowy winters for granted, but those are in jeopardy due to climate change — and that could affect everything from forest ecosystems to human health, researchers say.
Alexandra Contosta, assistant professor at the University of New Hampshire’s Earth Systems Research Center, and her team looked at 100 years of weather station data from forests in the northern United States and Canada, and found that milder winters are having widespread impacts, she said.
I don't like winter (as I don't like bees...see above) but I am smart enough o know we need them both.

How extreme sea level events are going to increase in Australia
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/oct/08/how-extreme-sea-level-events-are-going-to-increase-in-australia
Quote
A major new report predicts extreme sea level events that used to occur once every hundred years will occur at least once a year in many regions around the world by 2050.
The Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change looks at the impacts of climate change on glaciers and ice sheets, sea level rise, extreme sea level events and ocean ecosystems.
With immediate cuts to carbon emissions, scientists expect sea level rise of 30cm-60cm by 2100. Without cuts in carbon emissions, the ocean is expected to rise between 61cm and 110cm.
I will turn 92 in 2050. My uncle is older than that, so I might make it and see the first happen. If you are young enough, you might live to see 2100 and see the real disaster.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 10, 2019, 07:14:03 PM
How Climate Change And Flash Flooding Is Affecting Communities Across The Country
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/08/768373866/how-climate-change-and-flash-flooding-is-affecting-communities-across-the-countr
Quote
Climate change is driving deadly flash flooding across America. In one Maryland town, back-to-back flooding has forced residents to make huge decisions about how their community will adapt.
Can you swim in a raging flash flood? And even if you can, is your home waterproof?

Climate change will make California wildfires even worse
https://www.futurity.org/wildfires-climate-change-california-2179612/
Quote
The severity of wildfires in the Sierra Nevada region of California has been sensitive to changes in climate over the past 1,400 years, according to new research.
Forget water, are you and your home fireproof?

What Happens When Your Town Dries Up?
https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/599635/dry-town-central-valley/
Quote
“In bigger cities, we are often insulated from the direct impacts of climate change and how it affects our immediate environments,” Vaughan-Lee said. “We see hotter days, erratic weather, and, most recently, fires—but we aren’t as close to the front lines as many of these smaller towns and communities.”
Fortunately, the California drought has relented in recent months. But many believe this to be a short-lived respite. “The aquifer in the Central Valley is being depleted at a rate much higher than can be replenished by rains, so it’s only a matter of time before farming becomes unviable,” Vaughan-Lee said. “When this happens, many towns in the Central Valley may not survive.”
You may not drown in a drought, but you may starve in droughts grow enough to endanger food production.

Want to know what climate change feels like? Ask an Alaskan.
https://grist.org/article/want-to-know-what-climate-change-feels-like-ask-an-alaskan/
Quote
Adrienne Titus was heading back to her parents’ village on a sweltering afternoon in early July when she saw the dead salmon. She had been fishing upstream with her mother on the banks of the gorgeous Unalakleet River, which Chinook, pink, coho, and chum salmon travel up every year in order to spawn. Down closer to the village of Unalakleet, though, there were no signs of life on the water that day — just hundreds of soft bodies floating belly up.
Titus, a 39-year-old Iñupiat woman who lives in Fairbanks but grew up in Unalakleet, had never seen anything like it before. Neither had her mother, or any of the village elders that they asked in this small fishing community on the shores of the Norton Sound in the central Bering Sea.
“It was scary,” Titus said. “It put fear into us.”
Similar reports of dead pink salmon came in all across the Norton Sound that week as temperatures soared into the high 80s and low 90s during a statewide heatwave that “re-wrote the record books,” according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. Fisheries biologists say that’s no coincidence: Warm water stresses the animals out, and temperatures above a certain threshold can kill them. In a statement issued on July 11, the Norton Sound Economic Development Corporation warned that the salmon die-offs appeared to be part of a “larger ecosystem-level shift” taking place due to rising temperatures.
Even if you don't eat fish, there are other things you eat that will be killed off. And even if not, people switching from fish will raise your food prices.

Climate Change Already Altering Ozark Forests Composition, Researcher Says
https://www.kuaf.com/post/climate-change-already-altering-ozark-forests-composition-researcher-says#stream/0
Quote
University of Missouri-Columbia research associate professor ermeritus of forest health and mycology, Johann Bruhn, says climate change is already affecting Ozark forests. Bruhn travels with Citizen Climate Lobby Missouri co-coordinator, George Laur, educating the public. The USDA Forest Service has launched an online Climate Change Resource Center to provide guidance.
I love forests. I would hate to see them pass away.

Sea-level rise threatens 13 million Americans. Can FEMA help?
https://grist.org/article/sea-level-rise-threatens-13-million-americans-can-fema-help/
Quote
But in many respects Yang’s realism is spot on. If the world keeps burning fossil fuels as usual, between four and 13 million Americans will see their homes inundated by sea-level rise this century. In the future, managed retreat will become unavoidable.
This is one to four percent of all Americans. And America is probably the best situated country to handle Sea Level Rise.

Climate change is already harming Great Lakes region, Debbie Stabenow warns
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/10/climate-change-is-already-harming-great-lakes-region-debbie-stabenow-warns.html
Quote
A "climate crisis" is affecting Michigan’s economy, agriculture, public health and the Great Lakes, according to a new report.
This hits me where I live.
Literally.

One Thing You Can Do: Talk to Your Children About Climate Change
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/09/climate/children-anxiety-climate-newsletter-nyt.html
Quote
Climate change and related natural disasters can take a toll on mental health, according to a 2017 report by the American Psychological Association. That can include depression and anxiety. Children may be one of the hardest-hit groups.
I grew up during the Cold War. I remember having nuclear nightmares.

What will we lose? Tracking climate change in Yellowstone
https://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/news/environment/what-will-we-lose-tracking-climate-change-in-yellowstone/article_2cd9181a-4a05-527c-aaf3-3fbad9596cee.html
Quote
The Yellowstone scientist best known for his work on wolves is now leading a study of jays, warblers and sparrows, among other bird species. His researchers wake up obscenely early, leave the office by 3:30 a.m., and are in the woods listening for bird calls before the sun comes up.
The goal is to figure out what migratory and resident birds are living in old growth, subalpine forests consisting of spruce and fir trees — a forest type climate change could erase.
I went to Yellowstone National park twice. It is my favorite spot in the world. But even this is not safe.

How The Ala Wai Flood Project Illustrates The Challenge Of Adapting To Climate Change
https://www.hawaiipublicradio.org/post/how-ala-wai-flood-project-illustrates-challenge-adapting-climate-change#stream/0
Quote
But climate change-fueled storms are now at risk of overwhelming that system.
As the atmosphere warms, it is able to hold more water vapor. That means when storms form, they can deposit a higher volume of water in the form of rain. We saw this at work during the 2018 “rain bomb” floods in Hanalei and Aina Haina.
At just under 50 inches of rain, the Hanalei event set the current record for highest 24-hour rainfall total in the United States. It caused an estimated $125 million in damage.
Such an event would cause over $1 billion worth of destruction in the Ala Wai watershed — home to the state’s economic engine, Waikiki. That damage estimate comes from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the federal agency charged with managing the nation’s waterways.
A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon you are talking real money.

How climate change primed California’s power shutdown
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/climate-change-california-power-outage/
Quote
Frequent fires are part of California’s natural state. Many of its ecosystems, from the chaparral of Southern California to the northern pine forests, evolved to burn frequently. But since the 1980s, the size and ferocity of the fires that sweep across the state have trended upward: Fifteen of the 20 largest fires in California history have occurred since 2000. And since the 1970s, the amount of area burned in the state has increased by a factor of five.
Climate change’s fingerprint is evident in many of the fires, scientists say, primarily because hotter air means drier plants, which burn more readily
Over the past century, California has warmed by about 3 degrees Fahrenheit, more than the global average of about one degree Fahrenheit. Hotter air draws water out of plants and soils more efficiently than cool, leaving the trees, shrubs, and rolling grasslands of the state dry and primed to burn.

These State Birds May Be Forced Out of Their States as the World Warms
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/10/climate/state-birds-climate-change.html
Quote
New research shows that hundreds of North American birds are at risk of major habitat disruption from climate change.
I wonder if our state bird (Ohio Cardinal IIRC) is one of these?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 13, 2019, 07:27:20 PM
Hikers: Beware of Falling Trees
https://www.outsideonline.com/2402646/falling-trees-deaths-hiking-danger
Quote
In California and Colorado, there are forests with more dead trees still standing, known as snags. An unprecedented 129 million trees in California have died from drought and bark beetles since 2010. All of those dead trees, in addition to the deadwood that has accumulated over a century of fire suppression, can lead to the kind of massive, out-of-control wildfires that have plagued California in recent years. These fires, of course, kill even more trees, and burn areas are particularly at risk for falling timber. In Colorado, there were 834 million snags as of 2017, or one in 14 trees—30 percent more than in 2010. Plus both the Pacific Crest and Colorado Trails go through extensive burn areas. The issue of dead timber is likely to worsen, due to the ongoing climate crisis.
“As the climate gets dryer and hotter, these problems are going to become even greater, at least until we change the way our forests are managed,” says Trimble.
Another consequence I did not think of.

Four Ways Alaska’s Unending Warming Impacts Everyone
https://therevelator.org/alaska-warming-impacts-everyone/
Quote
Melting Sea Ice Accelerates Warming…and May Disrupt Global Weather Patterns
Increasing Wildfires Torch the “Legacy Carbon” of Northern Forests
Alaska’s Melting Glaciers Raise Global Sea Levels
Thawing Permafrost and the Carbon Bomb
What happens in Alaska does not stay in Alaska.

FEMA Bought 44,000 Flood-Prone Homes. They May Have to Buy Millions More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/fema-may-have-to-buy-millions-of-homes-due-to-climate-crisis
Quote
This 30 year-trickle is nothing compared with the great climate exodus to come. The potential number of homes that may be abandoned is staggering, said A.R. Siders, a co-author and assistant professor at University of Delaware’s Disaster Research Center. “There are 49 million housing units in at-risk areas on the U.S. coast, and over $1 trillion worth of infrastructure within 700 feet of the coast,” she said. The government isn't prepared to relocate even one-tenth of that, if it needed to, Siders said.
Maybe we can just put them in the deserts droughts will make?

Billions face food, water shortages over next 30 years as nature fails
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/billions-face-water-food-insecurity/#close
Quote
A new model shows which areas of Earth will likely be hit the hardest by the changes caused by human activity, also revealing possible solutions.
That means basically everybody and their pets.

‘They should be allowed to cry’: Ecological disaster taking toll on scientists’ mental health
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/ecological-disaster-mental-health-awareness-day-scientists-climate-change-grief-a9150266.html
Quote
Leading researchers have published a letter saying many scientists experience “strong grief responses” to the ecological crisis and there are profound risks of ignoring this emotional trauma
When scientists start sobbing and weeping, you know it's time to panic.
 
Loons likely to disappear from Minnesota due to climate change, new report warns
http://www.startribune.com/loons-likely-to-disappear-from-minnesota-due-to-climate-change-new-report-warns/562874132/
Quote
The black and white bird — whose haunting cries define Minnesota as much as lakes, snow and hot dish — is among 55 species likely to disappear from the state for the summer by 2080 if the world does nothing to cut greenhouse-gas emissions, according to a new report by the National Audubon Society, Survival by Degrees: 389 Bird Species on the Brink
How long until the humans vanish from Minnesota?

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 15, 2019, 08:28:09 PM
Firms ignoring climate crisis will go bankrupt, says Mark Carney
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/13/firms-ignoring-climate-crisis-bankrupt-mark-carney-bank-england-governor
Quote
Companies and industries that are not moving towards zero-carbon emissions will be punished by investors and go bankrupt, the governor of the Bank of England has warned.
Mark Carney also told the Guardian it was possible that the global transition needed to tackle the climate crisis could result in an abrupt financial collapse. He said the longer action to reverse emissions was delayed, the more the risk of collapse would grow.
Do you own stock in a vulnerable company? Are you employed by a vulnerable company

This Is What Adapting to Climate Change Looks Like
https://www.citylab.com/environment/2019/10/what-adapting-climate-change-looks-like/599872/?utm_source=feed&silverid=%25%25RECIPIENT_ID%25%25
Quote
California has always promised Americans a glimpse of the future. But this week, the Golden State is forecasting a future that nobody wants to live in.
Millions of people across California lost their power this week, after the local utility Pacific Gas and Electric intentionally shut off electrical lines to avoid starting wildfires in dangerously dry and windy conditions.
Try living without power for a few days. Preferably in a heat wave.

Forty Percent of Pennsylvania Bird Species Are Vulnerable to Climate Change
https://www.alleghenyfront.org/forty-percent-of-pennsylvania-bird-species-vulnerable-to-climate-change/
Quote
“Forty percent of Pennsylvania’s 227 bird species are vulnerable to climate change,” said Greg Goldman, executive director of Audubon PA.  “Extreme spring heat is the greatest concern.”
The sound of the Great Horned Owl – so common in the woods of Pennsylvania today – could be less common if carbon emissions aren’t brought under control, said Goldman.
Another common sight in the region’s wetlands is the American black duck – not actually black but brown with a splash of purple on its wing.
“It’s a really iconic water bird, it’s here summer and winter,” said Beth Brown, director of Audubon PA’s Delaware River Watershed Program. “It’s kind of out there doing its job providing services in the ecosystem and it’s sort of your typical American duck.”
Brown says the American black duck is one of hundreds of birds nationwide that could lose habitat from a changing climate. Some are moving north, but that may not be an option for all of them.
Silent spring could happen even without DDT, just CO2.

Higher temperatures driving 'alarming' levels of hunger – report
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2019/oct/15/higher-temperatures-driving-alarming-levels-hunger-report-climate-crisis
Quote
Extreme weather events are putting food production and security in jeopardy and the risk is expected to increase. Food production is likely to fall due to higher temperatures, water scarcity, greater CO2 and extreme weather events. Yields of maize and wheat are already declining.
and
Global Hunger Index says progress isn't happening fast enough
https://www.fastcompany.com/90417159/the-people-who-are-going-to-be-starved-by-climate-change-didnt-cause-it
Quote
A new report finds that the fight to end global hunger is being put at risk by the changing climate’s effect on agriculture.
And that blizzard in the United States we just had has ruined our season's late harvest.

Indigenous farming practices failing as climate change disrupts seasons
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/climate-change-killing-thousands-of-years-indigenous-wisdom/
Quote
Climate change is upending millions of people’s lives, yet few communities are seeing their crops and worldviews crumble quite like those that rely on indigenous weather forecasting. Dependent in many cases on millennia-old trial and error, as well as analyses of the landscape to gauge planting cycles, their fields are withering as the conditions on which the calendars are predicated change. Without that accumulated wisdom to fall back on—bird migrations, wind direction, stars, and more—farmers are feeling particularly defenseless just as other consequences of climate change complicate their lives.
We will all see our eternal verities go by the wayside as climate changes.

Japan’s Seaweed Industry Is in Jeopardy
https://www.ozy.com/acumen/japans-seaweed-industry-is-in-jeopardy/219660/
Quote
That’s pushing up prices and threatening a cherished staple of the Japanese diet. The disruption offers an early hint of how environmental change will affect food production, forcing long-standing industries to adapt.
The problems are twofold: warming seas and not enough pollution. Climate change has led to a significant rise in water temperatures around Japan in recent decades. “We don’t know the causes for sure, but I think the biggest factor here is global warming,” says Koizumi.
Sushi is coming to an end in Japan. What else will soon come to an end?

'I'm standing here in the middle of climate change': How USDA is failing farmers
https://www.politico.com/news/2019/10/15/im-standing-here-in-the-middle-of-climate-change-how-usda-fails-farmers-043615
Quote
But the Agriculture Department is doing little to help farmers adapt to what experts predict is the new norm: increasingly extreme weather across much of the U.S. The department, which has a hand in just about every aspect of the industry, from doling out loans to subsidizing crop insurance, spends just 0.3 percent of its $144 billion budget helping farmers adapt to climate change, whether it’s identifying the unique risks each region faces or helping producers rethink their practices so they’re better able to withstand extreme rain and periods of drought.
And this year is already the worst for extreme farming weather in the USA in decades, if not ever.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 17, 2019, 08:14:40 PM
Climate change could push Ebola into untouched regions, report warns
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/climate-change-could-push-ebola-untouched-regions-report-warns/
Quote
A
“perfect storm” of climate change, population growth and poverty could push Ebola into previously untouched regions, experts have warned.
In a study published in Nature Communications journal, researchers used a statistical model to predict how increases in temperature and socio-economic development will affect the spread of Ebola over the next five decades.
They found that in a worst-case scenario, the area at risk of disease outbreaks could increase by 14.7 per cent, stretching beyond the current endemic zone of central Africa. 
The study also found that human factors such as population growth, rising poverty levels and poor health infrastructure could cause a 50 per cent rise in the number of outbreaks.
Remember how scared we were of Ebola a few years ago? My cousin stocked up on rice to get us through the collapse of Civilization.

Greenland's melting ice may affect everyone's future
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/greenland-ice-oceans-melting-fast/
Quote
But exactly how much ice it will deposit, and how fast, is still an open question. Greenland is currently the biggest contributor to global sea level rise. By 2100, will its ice sheet’s melt add inches to the world’s oceans—or will it add much more?
That’s a trillion-dollar question. Nearly 70 percent of Earth’s population lives within 100 miles of a coast, and vast amounts of infrastructure—from airports to ports to cities to roads to Internet cables—sits in zones that could flood within decades. Small, low-lying island nations, city planners, insurance adjustors, homeowners—everyone is clamoring for the most accurate estimates of how much extra water they’ll need to prepare for.
Hail Atlantis! Way down, under the ocean; that's where you're gonna be

Can Insurance Companies Weather The Storm? What Climate Change Means For The Industry
https://www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2019/10/15/climate-change-insurance-coverage
Quote
Last year, insurance payouts caused by climate-related events totaled $2.4 trillion worldwide.
And with forecasts that climate events — floods, fires, hurricanes and droughts — will become more severe, the risk becomes more difficult to assess, and insurance companies may find it more difficult to cover those losses.
The Economist finance correspondent Matthieu Favas (@MatthieuFavas) recently wrote about the issue in an article titled "Changing Weather Could Put Insurance Firms Out of Business." He joins host Robin Young to discuss.
Insurance companies fulfill a very real need. Where will we be when they all go broke?

Anchorage talk will dive into ocean acidification’s impact on Alaska marine life
https://www.adn.com/business-economy/2019/10/15/anchorage-talk-will-dive-into-ocean-acidifications-impact-on-alaska-marine-life/
Quote
Ocean acidification is caused when carbon dioxide gas from the atmosphere dissolves in the ocean, lowering the water’s pH level and making it more acidic. The imbalance prevents marine creatures from forming shells and skeletons, among other things.
So even if we orbit millions of giant mirrors to cool off the Earth, we will still have an Extinction Level Event from rising CO2.

Is climate change responsible for the conflicts we’re seeing around the world today?
https://ensia.com/features/climate-change-conflict-violence-extremism-draught-flood/
Quote
An international group of scholars recently concluded that severe climate change will lead to more conflict in the future. But disentangling higher temperatures, drought and sea-level rise from other factors is difficult. Even though a link between climate change and violence is supported by many independent studies, there is little hard scientific evidence to directly link the two, says Alex de Waal, executive director of World Peace Foundation at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, who studied drought and famine in Darfur in the 1980s.
AGW doesn't help conflict on the world stage, that is for sure. Any conflict could spark a World War and leave us with A Canticle For Leibowitz.

Initiative Aims to Create 3D Map of the World Before Climate Change Alters It
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/initiative-aims-to-create-3d-map-of-the-world-before-climate-change-alters-it
Quote
Scientists have launched a new initiative to create a highly detailed, 3D map of the planet. The project, known as the Earth Archive, aims to capture a record of cultural sites, ecosystems, and landscapes before they are transformed by the impacts of climate change, such as rising seas, melting ice, and wildfires.
“We are going to lose a significant amount of both cultural patrimony – so archaeological sites and landscapes – but also ecological patrimony – plants and animals, entire landscapes, geology, hydrology,” archaeologist Chris Fisher of Colorado State University, a co-founder of the new initiative, told The Guardian. “We really have a limited time to record those things before the Earth fundamentally changes.”
The nature of this thread makes it rather grim, but here is at least a small glimmer of light.

Future cool: Minnesota city ponders new boom as a climate migrant destination
http://news.trust.org/item/20191016103325-fija0/
Quote
DULUTH, Minnesota, Oct 16 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Before the advent of air conditioning, this northern U.S. city on the shore of Lake Superior promoted itself as a cool summer haven for the sweaty and allergy affected.
One day Duluth might offer another kind of relief: As a haven for future U.S. migrants fleeing runaway heatwaves and other extreme weather elsewhere in the country.
When I was a little tyke this city became famous as the home of the Duluth Mongoose Mr. Magoo, narrowly saved from execution by the Federal Government. Maybe when the heat forces me to move there I can see his stuffed body.

Brussels seeks new solid ground in melting Arctic
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/10/brussels-seeks-new-solid-ground-melting-arctic
Quote
Unprecedented and looming changes at alarming speed. The melting of the Arctic has devastating global implications and the EU is not ready to stand by watching.
Only three years after it adopted its Arctic Policy, the European Union now starts the work with a new Arctic strategy document.
The Arctic is opening up as a new frontier, with abundant resources, which is causing tension among the circumpolar nations.

Leader of Russia’s meteorological authority is brought down by extreme weather
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2019/10/leader-russias-meteorological-authority-brought-down-extreme-weather
Quote
No official reason has been given for the dismissal. But the Ministry of Emergency Situations reportedly had complained about insufficient warnings from Roshydromet ahead of this year’s major floods in the Far East. Ministry leader Yevgeny Zinichev had told President Putin that the consequences of the floods could have been avoided had meteorological information been given in due time, newspaper Vedomosti reports.
The federal government now says that Roshydromet is up for a major restructuring. According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Roshydromet will experience a strengthening of material and technical capacities that ultimately will enhance the reliability of the monitoring and prognosis systems.
There is a scary consequence...a pink slip.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on October 18, 2019, 01:49:08 PM
I was wondering why there would be a temperature gradient in ebola but the answer is the host species:

Attempting to understand zoonotic epidemic risk, however, using a human-only transmission model and without incorporating host ecology would inevitably lead to areas with high human density and connectivity being identified as the regions with the highest risk, despite some areas of these lacking competent hosts. Therefore, to model both the spatial variation in spill-over risk and, concurrently, the likely progression of subsequent outbreaks in human populations, we need to take a system-dynamics modelling approach1,33. Key non-linear feedbacks can also be captured, for example, the trade-off between increasing human populations and any potential loss of reservoir host species through anthropogenic land-use conversion.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12499-6
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: ColinOH on October 18, 2019, 05:54:04 PM

<snip>
Climate change is already harming Great Lakes region, Debbie Stabenow warns
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2019/10/climate-change-is-already-harming-great-lakes-region-debbie-stabenow-warns.html
Quote
A "climate crisis" is affecting Michigan’s economy, agriculture, public health and the Great Lakes, according to a new report.
This hits me where I live.
Literally.
<snip>


I really appreciate all your comments and links and, as you note, "this hits me where I live," too. I'm in eastern Lorain County. We seem to have similar perspectives and perhaps we could "chat." Reach me via golfwalker at hotmail dot com at your discretion.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 20, 2019, 07:48:43 PM
Extreme snowfall led to reproductive collapse in some Arctic wildlife in 2018
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/extreme-snowfall-led-to-reproductive-collapse-in-some-arctic-wildlife-in-2018/
Quote
In 2018, while the Arctic continued to see warmer summers and retreating snow cover in general because of rising global temperatures, there was also very heavy snowfall that kept several areas covered in “unusually large amounts of snow” even in late summer, when much of it should have melted.
In northeast Greenland, one of the regions affected by the excessive snowfall, most animals and plants, including Arctic foxes and migratory shorebirds, failed to reproduce, researchers found.
While one non-breeding year may not spell doom for Arctic wildlife, frequent extreme weather events like the one in 2018 could make it harder for Arctic species to bounce back and survive, the researchers warn.
This is millions of years of evolutionary wisdom being imperiled.

Glass art is a gas guzzler. Can Seattle stoke the flames of environmental change?
https://crosscut.com/2019/10/glass-art-gas-guzzler-can-seattle-stoke-flames-environmental-change
Quote
“We have always been harmful to the environment in that in early years we used wood-fired furnaces, so we were responsible for the deforestation of large areas to make glass,” says Clark of the Glass Art Society. Later, the industry shifted to burning coal, and then natural gas.
I did some stained glass artwork at the Senior Center. Hate for the hobby to disappear to fight AGW.

Amazon Watch: What Happens When the Forest Disappears?
https://e360.yale.edu/features/amazon-watch-what-happens-when-the-forest-disappears
Quote
Deforestation is dramatically raising local temperatures. The air over the farm is on average 5 degrees Celsius hotter than in the forested reserve over the fence: 34 degrees C, rather than 29 degrees C. The difference rises to a staggering 10 degrees at the end of the dry season, says Coe.
And the dry season is lengthening. Across the Xingu Basin and through the southern Amazon region known as the “arc of deforestation,” it lasts almost four weeks longer than half a century ago.
Why these huge changes? The answers lie not in global climate change but in the impact of deforestation, says Coe. In the old days, the trees of the rainforest acted as water pumps, recycling most of the rainwater, which they pumped from underground and released into the atmosphere from the pores in their leaves, a process known as transpiration.
But this is being exacerbated by AGW, and it is a feedback.

The Stark Inequality of Climate Change
https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-stark-inequality-of-climate-change
Quote
When Florence made landfall, it didn’t rage, as predicted, at the coast—instead it moved inland and stalled, dumping what the journalist Gilbert Gaul calls a “rain bomb” over the state. It killed more than fifty people, drowned thousands of hogs and millions of chickens, and left whole communities swamped in agricultural contaminants. Purdy writes that the damage “fell unequally on North Carolinians. It always does.” The contamination disproportionately affected rural, poor people of color, showing the unnaturalness of “natural disasters.” Similar contamination followed Hurricane Floyd, in 1999, Purdy points out. And despite these damages, and the increasing power of hurricanes as the sea warms and rises, the state legislature passed a statute in 2012 prohibiting planners in North Carolina from taking rising sea levels into account until the law expired in 2016, not wanting to burden developers along the coast.
Will we realize that our survival and "their" survival are inextricably linked?

The world’s ecosystems are being fundamentally transformed in the human era
https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2019/10/17/worlds-ecosystems-are-being-fundamentally-transfigured-human-era/
Quote
In the midst of a global environmental crisis, when an estimated 1 million species are said to be at risk of extinction, the study offers an important look at biodiversity on the level of individual ecosystems, the authors said. It suggests that for now, at least, human activities have resulted not so much in outright losses as in large-scale reorganization.
But the function of ecosystems — their capacity to filter water and clean air, to sustain the plants and animals we rely on and admire — depends on the activities and health of their inhabitants. And those qualities are at risk.
“It’s a little bit like we’re playing musical chairs at the moment,” said macroecologist Maria Azeredo de Dornelas, a co-author on the report. “You have a lot of things moving around, and chances are that some things are going to end up without a chair.”
Maybe there is still time to end the game of musical chairs?

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on October 21, 2019, 07:51:25 AM
  World economy is sleepwalking into a new financial crisis, warns Mervyn King

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/20/world-sleepwalking-to-another-financial-crisis-says-mervyn-king
 by Larry Elliott
Past crashes spawned new thinking and reform but nothing has changed since 2008 banking meltdown, says former Bank of England boss

 Quotes:
Lord King, who was in charge at Threadneedle Street during the near-death of the global banking system and deep economic slump a decade ago, said the resistance to new thinking meant a repeat of the chaos of the 2008-09 period was looming.

He added that the US would suffer a “financial armageddon” if its central bank – the Federal Reserve – lacked the necessary firepower to combat another episode similar to the sub-prime mortgage sell-off.

The former Bank governor said the economic and political climate had rarely been so fraught, citing the US-China trade war, riots in Hong Kong, problems in key emerging countries such as Argentina and Turkey, the growing tensions between France and Germany over the future direction of the euro, and the increasingly bitter political conflict in the US at a time when the willingness of the US to act as the world’s policeman was disappearing.

King said the world economy was stuck in a low growth trap and that the recovery from the slump of 2008-09 was weaker than that after the Great Depression.

Standard models were unhelpful in two important areas of economic policy – getting the world economy out of its low growth trap, and preparing for the next financial crisis.

(personal:
>  I read "low growth trap" !
>  I say growth is the real trap. We have to un-grow, to go smaller, less.
)

He said: “Congress would be confronted with a choice between financial armageddon and a suspension of some of the rules that were introduced after the last crisis to limit the ability of the Fed to lend.”

&

  Global trade disruption is a symptom of a deeper malaise

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/12/global-trade-disruption-a-symptom-of-deeper-malaise-us-china
 by Mohamed El-Erian


As growth prospects deteriorated, debt and leverage issues would come to the fore in certain countries, adding financial instability to an already damaging economic cocktail. And with the US-China row now extending beyond economics to include national security and domestic political issues, the best-case scenario on trade is a series of ceasefires; the more likely outcome is escalating tensions.

Monetary policy has not been very effective in boosting sustainable growth but it has lifted asset prices significantly. This has further fuelled complaints that the system favours the already rich and privileged rather than serving the broader population – let alone helping more disadvantaged groups.

In particular, the protracted use of unconventional monetary policies has entailed costs and risks that have intensified over time. These include attacks on the operational autonomy of central banks, the excessive decoupling of asset prices from their underlying economic and corporate fundamentals, and systemic overpromising of liquidity to end users (particularly in the non-bank sector). Today, a policy mistake or a market accident could make the journey much faster and a lot bumpier.

With concerted global action of this type, the world economy could navigate the upcoming T-junction favourably. Without it, current complaints about economic and financial instability and insecurity could pale in comparison to what comes next.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on October 21, 2019, 12:19:26 PM
  IMF haunted by fears that history might be about to repeat itself

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/imf-haunted-by-fears-that-history-might-be-about-to-repeat-itself
 by Larry Elliot

With corporations loading up on debt, any recession would have dire consequences

 Quotes:

in 2008, the result was the most profound economic shock since the 1930s. Supervision and regulation of banks was tightened, but only when it was too late.

In light of that experience, the latest IMF Global Financial Stability Report makes for scary reading. Corporations see no end to the era of low interest rates and have loaded up on debt. In the event of a recession only half as severe as that of 2008-09, the IMF estimates that in the major countries studied, the debt of companies where the interest payments could not be met from earnings would reach $19tn (£15tn) – almost 40% of the total.

But in the past 12 months, central banks have started easing policy once more, and that has set off alarm bells at the IMF. It is telling governments it would be a good idea to improve supervision and crack down on over-leveraged companies now, rather than do it in five years’ time after yet another crisis.


&

  Global economy faces $19tn corporate debt timebomb, warns IMF

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/global-economy-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf
 by Larry Elliot

Update on markets lists eight leading countries, including US, China and UK, as vulnerable

 Quotes:

Officials at the Washington-based organisation fear that the buildup of debt makes the global financial system highly vulnerable and are telling member states not to repeat the mistake of the early 2000s, when warning signs of a possible market meltdown were ignored.

Adrian and Natalucci said the cheap money policy adopted by central banks was helping to boost financial markets in the short-term but, by encouraging investors to take more chances in the quest for higher yields, risked instability and lower growth in the medium-term.

“Very low rates have prompted institutional investors like insurance companies, pension funds and asset managers to reach for yield and take on riskier and less liquid securities to generate targeted returns,” Adrian and Natalucci said.

“For example, pension funds have increased their exposure to alternative asset classes like private equity and real estate. What are the possible consequences? Similarities in portfolios of investment funds could amplify a market sell-off, and illiquid investments by pension funds could constrain their traditional stabilising role in markets.

&

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2019/10/01/global-financial-stability-report-october-2019
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: be cause on October 21, 2019, 12:26:59 PM
so those with all the money have taken another $19 trillion out of the pockets of our children .. krazy b.c.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on October 21, 2019, 02:15:22 PM
Some of us have been going on about the looming second debt crisis for yonks.

But it is not a consequence of AGW. It is just another expression of society's inability to consider and deal with the long-term consequences of our actions, as is AGW.

Now the crash seems a lot closer. But the pyramid / ponzi dance of of fools will last a bit longer. We could see the 2008-9 financial crash coming by 2004-5, but things always hang on longer than reason would suggest. The structural problems in the global financial and economic systems exposed in the 2008-09 crisis have not really been fixed. When this crash happens "The Masters of the Universe" will find there is not a lot of ammo left in the box to fix it.

So 2020 (or 2021) could see a drop in CO2 emissions.
Hoorah? No.
Because the capital required to invest in renewable energy, energy efficiency and repair to at least some of the other environmental damage we have caused, will not be there. The switch from coal and gas may be stopped in its tracks.

And I am not just talking about the West. China and India have just as deep and fundamental structural imbalances in their financial and economic systems as the OECD countries.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on October 21, 2019, 06:11:28 PM
<snip>
But it is not a consequence of AGW. It is just another expression of society's inability to consider and deal with the long-term consequences of our actions, as is AGW.

Beautiful. I completely agree.
To add: Tradition,dogma=not thinking.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 22, 2019, 08:15:28 PM
Invasive lionfish have huge appetites. Hotter oceans will make them hungrier, new study finds
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article236419363.html
Quote
As the ocean gets warmer, lionfish get hungrier, a new study indicates. With climate change happening now, that’s bad news for the Atlantic marine ecosystems the invasive lionfish has ravaged for decades.
I wonder if mongooses get hungrier in hotter weather...

Artist uses ‘historic’ markers to raise climate awareness
https://www.apnews.com/273bc827d08a4f98b6f546733cc3485c
Quote
Rather than commemorating important people or places in history, many of these dinner plate-size signs detail events like rising sea levels and an explosion of ticks that have yet to happen — part of an effort to draw attention to the potential effects of climate change.
The signs are based on possibilities laid out in the scientific research that the towns have used to develop their climate plans and written from the perspective of someone in the 22nd century looking back.
Take a walk around his area and see what is in store for you.

How to Mourn a Glacier
https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/how-to-mourn-a-glacier
Quote
Although nearly every mountain, stream, and valley in Iceland has a name and a history, Ok isn’t particularly famous. No path brings tourists to its summit, and those who travel the one-lane gravel road through the valley floor typically take no note of Okjökull—meaning “Ok’s glacier”—which spanned sixteen square kilometres at its largest, at the end of the nineteenth century. By 1978, it had shrunk to three square kilometres. In 2014, Iceland’s leading glaciologist, Oddur Sigurðsson, hiked to Ok’s summit to discover only a small patch of slushy gray ice in the shadow of the volcano’s crater. Okjökull could no longer be classified as a glacier, Sigurðsson announced to the scientific community. It had become “dead ice.”
The first fatality of many.

Diseases are spreading with climate change. Panic doesn’t have to.
https://www.hcn.org/articles/public-health-diseases-are-spreading-with-climate-change-panic-doesnt-have-to
Quote
Now, new research suggests that Valley fever will continue to spread as the climate changes. This growth is a reflection of a greater trend across the nation as mosquito-borne West Nile virus and tick-borne Lyme disease also expand their range.
Information and preparation are stressed, but that can only go so far.

New study pinpoints the places most at risk on a warming planet
https://grist.org/article/new-study-pinpoints-the-places-most-at-risk-on-a-warming-planet/
Quote
As many as five billion people will face hunger and a lack of clean water by 2050 as the warming climate disrupts pollination, freshwater, and coastal habitats, according to new research published last week in Science. People living in South Asia and Africa will bear the worst of it.
But everyone and everywhere will suffer to some extent.

Are Clues to the Coming Winter Blowing in the Autumn Wind?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/18/us/winter-weather-climate.html?rref=collection/sectioncollection/climate&action=click&contentCollection=climate&region=stream&module=stream_unit&version=latest&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront
Quote
In fact, it is possible to see global warming even in the seasonal forecast. The climate center has issued temperature forecasts for every three-month period between now and a year from now, and all of the maps show only red or white, with no blue shading anywhere in the continental United States. That means all the forecasts are for conditions that are warmer, or at least no cooler, than the average for the last 30 years.
The confidence levels for the temperature forecasts are much higher than those for precipitation — as high as 80 percent in the Southwest for the coming three months. And the fact is, a forecast of higher average temperatures would be a pretty good bet even if it were for one, two, five or 10 years from now. The planet is warmer now than in any previous decade on record, it will continue to get even warmer, and the forecasting models and the scientists who use them know why.
Back in the 80s I saw this even then. The Plain Dealer had the temperature variation for the month in the weather report. I t was almost always above average.

The return of the 'blob': Hawaii's reefs threatened by marine heat wave
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/21/climate/hawaii-coral-bleaching.html
Quote
“The event in ’14-15 was maybe eight to 10 times the size of Alaska. And the current event we’re having is nearly that big,” Dr. Leising said. “And then, everything else is sort of an even further distant third or fourth.”
Researchers say they think that climate change strongly influenced the original blob’s creation.
The blob also led to the first known mass bleaching event in Hawaii, in which coral reefs stressed by the extreme temperatures shed the symbiotic plant that both gives them their flamboyant coloration and provides them with oxygen.
Blobs will grow, deepen and multiply over the course of this century.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on October 23, 2019, 05:49:49 PM
Article in today's NYT:
Climate Change Will Cost Us Even More Than We Think
Economists greatly underestimate the price tag on harsher weather and higher seas. Why is that?

For some time now it has been clear that the effects of climate change are appearing faster than scientists anticipated. Now it turns out that there is another form of underestimation as bad or worse than the scientific one: the underestimating by economists of the costs.

The result of this failure by economists is that world leaders understand neither the magnitude of the risks to lives and livelihoods, nor the urgency of action. How and why this has occurred is explained in a recent report by scientists and economists at the London School of Economics and Political Science, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Earth Institute at Columbia University.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/23/opinion/climate-change-costs.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Recently I saw an article that was supposed to be alarming that stated that climate change could reduce US GDP "by 10% by 2100" if urgent action is not taken.  How insane! The us economy is $20 T/yr.  Who honestly thinks that can peg the size it will be in 2100 within 10%, climate change or no?! A 10% reduction is the difference between a 2% growth rate and a 1.87% rate. Economists!!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Klondike Kat on October 23, 2019, 06:00:20 PM
Recently I saw an article that was supposed to be alarming that stated that climate change could reduce US GDP "by 10% by 2100" if urgent action is not taken.  How insane! The us economy is $20 T/yr.  Who honestly thinks that can peg the size it will be in 2100 within 10%, climate change or no?! A 10% reduction is the difference between a 2% growth rate and a 1.87% rate. Economists!!

These types of prediction are pure folly.  To be within 10% by 2100, would require an amazing accuracy by the soothsayer.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on October 23, 2019, 06:03:21 PM
My point exactly!
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: blumenkraft on October 23, 2019, 06:13:48 PM
Recently I saw an article that was supposed to be alarming that stated that climate change could reduce US GDP "by 10% by 2100" if urgent action is not taken.  How insane! The us economy is $20 T/yr.  Who honestly thinks that can peg the size it will be in 2100 within 10%, climate change or no?! A 10% reduction is the difference between a 2% growth rate and a 1.87% rate. Economists!!

I would take these numbers with a mountain of salt. There is too much assuming here. Not only in the numbers but also in the 'theories'. Economy is not a science. It's only bullshitter bullshitting. So don't ask the economists, ask the socialists.

From a socialist perspective, when the government prints money to finance renewables on a large scale, when there is legislation put in place for CO2 reduction (i.e. a carbon tax), and you then redistribute the taxes to the poor so that they can invest in climate-friendly measures (i.e. insulating houses) you create a huge economic expansion. The money comes back in taxes. Trickle-down has proven to be a hoax. Trickle back (i.e. people invest in goods, this creates jobs, more taxable money in the system in general) works.

Of course, you have to have all parts of the infrastructure in public hands, so that earnings also trickle back.

The problem with climate change is, that it will possibly kill all humans, not that humans have to have societies until it happens.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 23, 2019, 08:23:43 PM
Recently I saw an article that was supposed to be alarming that stated that climate change could reduce US GDP "by 10% by 2100" if urgent action is not taken.  How insane! ... Economists!!
I agree that conclusion is fantasy.   I suspect (order of magnitude sort of reasoning) climate change is affecting about 10% of the current economy (mostly not killing it, just affecting it).  With each decade, this 'influence' will double, so in 20 years 40% of the economy will be influenced by climate change.  In 40 years functionally all of the economy will be affected by it.

Maybe my current "10%" is only "5%" and it's a 15 year doubling, not 10, but by 2100, our entire economy will be influenced by climate change.  There will be losers and might be a few winners.  And there might not be a 'national economy' then.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on October 23, 2019, 09:57:11 PM
IPCC Reprt on Oceans & the Cryosphere.

Plenty of worst consequences of AGW.

Summary from SkepticalScience - https://skepticalscience.com/overview-ipcc-oceans-ice.html
&
Link to IPCC reports - https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/download-report/
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 24, 2019, 08:35:48 PM
Climate change has turned permafrost into a carbon emitter
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/permafrost-climate-change-1.5330144
Quote
Research has found Arctic soil has warmed to the point where it releases more carbon in winter than northern plants can absorb during the summer.
The finding means the extensive belt of tundra around the globe — a vast reserve of carbon that dwarfs what's held in the atmosphere — is becoming a source of greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change.
"There's a net loss," said Dalhousie University's Jocelyn Egan, one of 75 co-authors of a paper published in Nature Climate Change.
"In a given year, more carbon is being lost than what is being taken in. It is happening already."
Well, there goes one sink of CO2.

Alaska: Climate change threatens indigenous traditions
https://www.dw.com/en/alaska-climate-change-threatens-indigenous-traditions/a-50722471
Quote
Hunter said in past years, the salmon would come up first through the Kuskokwim River in June and the berries would be ready for picking in August. But now the berries are ripening earlier, overlapping with the fishing season. That means people have to fish and harvest fruit at the same time in order to store enough food for the winter.
"It's a little difficult to do both at once," Hunter told DW. "[You have to] worry about your fish and then [have to] think of your berries."
Evry tradition will ultimately be threatened by climate change.

‘We really need to wake up quickly’: Al Gore warns of a looming food crisis caused by climate change
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/food/this-is-really-dangerous-al-gore-warns-of-a-looming-food-crisis-caused-by-climate-change/2019/10/21/bd3eec7e-f1cf-11e9-89eb-ec56cd414732_story.html
Quote
“This is in Georgia; a heat wave cooked these apples before they could be harvested,” he said, issuing forth rapid-fire examples alongside bone-chilling images and video. “This is the Australia wine region that’s going to be untenable. . . . Rice yields in 80 percent of Japan have declined due to the rising temperatures. . . . In nearby Murfreesboro, Tenn., we’ll see a quarter decline in soybean yields within the next 30 years.”
A little here, a little there, and soon everybody is very hungry.

The warming climate is making baby sea turtles almost all girls
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/the-warming-climate-is-turning-baby-sea-turtles-one-gender/2019/10/21/d571f3fe-e3a6-11e9-b0a6-3d03721b85ef_story.html
Quote
She emerged from the ocean just before midnight, clambering up the shore as her ancestors have for 200 million years.
Only stars glowed on this remote beach, where the sea turtle arrived to lay her eggs. She dodged plastic, fishing nets and oil spills to get this far. But another threat to her species lurks in the ground: sand temperatures that foster only one gender.
“One hundred percent girls,” whispered the biologist, crawling next to the pregnant reptile. “This nest will be 100 percent girls.”
As the earth gets hotter, turtle hatchlings worldwide are expected to skew dangerously female, scientists predict, making the animals an unwitting gauge for the warming climate.
A lot of animals decide sex by temperature, not just sea turtles.

What’s driving up bacteria levels in Ketchikan’s drinking water? Climate change. And goats.
https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/10/23/whats-driving-up-bacteria-levels-in-ketchikans-drinking-water-climate-change-and-goats/
Quote
Ketchikan’s source of drinking water might have too much bacteria, and that could mean expensive upgrades for the city’s water department. And mountain goats and climate change might be to blame.
Don't drink the water and don't breath the air.

Peacebuilding in Somalia - another victim of climate change?
http://news.trust.org/item/20191023152834-81kfn/
Quote
"What surprised me most was the impact that climate change has on pretty much every element of UNSOM's mandate," report co-author Florian Krampe told the Thomson Reuters Foundation.
"Climate change deeply burdens UNSOM in its work to provide peace and security, and also in its efforts to establish functioning governance and judicial systems."
He said people escaping weather crises were vulnerable to recruitment by militants, crowded camps became hot beds for traffickers and more fights erupted over resources. Militants also exploited climate crises to win legitimacy, he added.
As long as we have the equivalent of maybe a million Hiroshimas on hair-trigger conflict could become the worst consequence of AGW.

Gullah Geechee: distinct US culture risks losing island home to climate crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/23/gullah-geechee-distinct-us-culture-risks-losing-island-home-to-climate-crisis
Quote
“The biggest concern is the massive number of [storms] that are arriving on our coast annually,” said Queen Quet, also known as Marquetta L Goodwine, who is also a computer scientist and historian. In the English-based creole language used by the Gullah Geechee, she is known as the “head pun de boddee”.
“We are convinced that this is directly linked to climate change dynamics,” she said. “There have never been this many hurricanes and tropical storms in succession. This is causing a major strain on the community being able to recover financially from these.”
Sea level rise doesn't exactly help either.

Amazon rainforest 'close to irreversible tipping point'
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/23/amazon-rainforest-close-to-irreversible-tipping-point
Quote
Soaring deforestation coupled with the destructive policies of Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, could push the Amazon rainforest dangerously to an irreversible “tipping point” within two years, a prominent economist has said.
After this point the rainforest would stop producing enough rain to sustain itself and start slowly degrading into a drier savannah, releasing billions of tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere, which would exacerbate global heating and disrupt weather across South America.
The lungs of the planet are getting emphysema.

How more organic farming could worsen global warming
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/how-more-organic-farming-could-worsen-global-warming
Quote
Organic farming typically produces lower crop yields due to factors such as the lower potency fertilizers used in the soil, which are limited to natural sources such as beans and other legumes. Williams’ model found that a 100 percent organic farming system in England and Wales would mean much smaller crop yields. For wheat and barley, for example, their production would be halved relative to conventional farming.
“Having established that there would be a shortfall in massive production, the gap would be filled by increased imports, ” Williams said.
This outcome could lead to a 21 percent rise in greenhouse gas emissions from England and Wales because those imports would likely be raised overseas through conventional agriculture. Such a transition would render moot the potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions that would otherwise be achieved by the switch.
DAG-NAB IT IS EVERYTHING BAD FOR THE CLIMATE?

North America's Best Ski Routes Are Disappearing
https://www.outsideonline.com/2404156/cody-townsend-the-fifty-climate-change
Quote
Take Mount Baker, Washington. Preparing to ski the Watson Traverse in May, Townsend and videographer Bjarne Salen had looked at a friend’s five-year-old photos and picked a seemingly mellow line. But when they arrived, they found that the glacier was broken up and riddled with crevasses. “Bjarne and I skied on a rope the whole way down, because there were giant crevasses and seracs peeling off,” he told me. “It was the scariest 25-degree slope I’ve ever skied in my life. I came away from that being like, At this pace, this line is going to be unskiable in ten years, tops.”
I know skiing is a luxury, but my cousin's husband is a ski instructor, so is likely to lose his job.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: jai mitchell on October 25, 2019, 08:05:53 PM
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x?deniedAccessCustomisedMessage=&userIsAuthenticated=false

By 2200, the PCF strength in terms of cumulative permafrost carbon flux to the atmosphere is 190 ± 64 Gt C. This estimate may be low because it does not account for amplified surface warming due to the PCF itself and excludes some discontinuous permafrost regions where SiBCASA did not simulate permafrost. We predict that the PCF will change the arctic from a carbon sink to a source after the mid‐2020s and is strong enough to cancel 42–88% of the total global land sink. The thaw and decay of permafrost carbon is irreversible and accounting for the PCF will require larger reductions in fossil fuel emissions to reach a target atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 26, 2019, 06:52:14 PM
Emaciated grizzly bears in Canada spark greater concerns over depleted salmon population
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/03/americas/emaciated-grizzly-bears-knights-inlet-canada-trnd-scn/index.html
Quote
In August, a report released by the Fisheries and Oceans Canada noted that Canada's climate is warming twice as fast as the global average, drastically impacting the salmon's ecosystems. The report also cited marine heatwaves, increased floods and droughts as causing greater stress on the fish.
Even if a bear (or a human) doesn't die of the heat, if your food does, you're sunk.

Climate change could cause U.S. military collapse, new report warns
https://www.mic.com/p/climate-change-could-cause-us-military-collapse-new-report-warns-19266239
Quote
The report, titled Implications of Climate Change for the U.S. Army, focuses primarily on doomsday scenarios, though they aren't presented as some far-flung dystopia. Rather, the report approaches the situations as realistic possibilities that we may face in the coming decades if the global temperature continues to increase and we aren't able to reverse course on our level of greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. Failing that, we'll be facing down a considerable number of unintended consequences that could overwhelm even the most well-funded and prepared military in the world. The combination of humanitarian aid and intervention in foreign regions combined with domestic issues may stretch the military to its breaking point, the report warns.
Maybe this will interest the pro-military GOP?

Global warming is changing wine
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-10-24/global-warming-is-changing-wine-video
Quote
Global warming is leading to sweeter and less acidic wines - but is also helping cooler places produce better wines.
I suppose this is one good thing, since I prefer sweet to sour in my Communion wine.

Stopping Global Warming Will Cost $50 Trillion: Morgan Stanley Report
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/24/stopping-global-warming-will-cost-50-trillion-morgan-stanley-report/#4293ed251e23
Quote
While estimates vary on the cost of halting global warming and reducing net carbon emissions to zero, a new report from Morgan Stanley analysts finds that to do so by 2050 the world will need to spend $50 trillion in five key areas of zero-carbon technology.
OK, this isn't even a ---- here and a ---- there...we are talking real money right now.

Cities Are Behind in Gauging Their Climate Risk
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cities-are-behind-in-gauging-their-climate-risk/
Quote
More than 500 cities around the globe are already feeling the effects of climate change, according to a report released this week.
“Cities at Risk” by the environmental nonprofit CDP found that 85% of cities surveyed last year are reporting climate hazards—including flooding in London, extreme winters in New York City, and forest fires and extreme heat in Quito, Ecuador.
And 15% just don't admit it.

Sea urchin population soars 10,000% in five years, devastating US coastline
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/24/sea-urchins-california-oregon-population
Quote
Scientists are not yet sure if the climate crisis is responsible for the sea urchin explosion, but they suspect it plays a role in the cascade of events that allowed the purple urchins to boom. And kelp, already under siege from warming waters, is not as resilient as it once was, said Norah Eddy, an associate director at the Nature Conservancy California’s oceans program.
“We’re going to see climate change as a big driver of changes in kelp forest as we move forward, and we are already seeing that,” said Eddy, who is leading an effort to use drones to map and monitor northern California’s last remaining kelp forests.
This means no more kelp. The sea otter (my second favorite animal...guess what is my first) may like the increased food, but without kelp they are literally out to sea.

Kincade Fire: The Age of Flames Is Consuming California 
https://www.wired.com/story/kincade-fire/
Quote
Welcome to what fire historian Steve Pyne calls the Pyrocene, a unique time in history when human use of fire, particularly the burning of fossil fuels, and the attendant climate change combine to create hell on Earth. “We are creating a fire age that will be equivalent to the Ice Age,” he says. The reckoning is here, and California—a highly flammable state packed with people—is getting it worse than just about anybody in the world.
Gee, that Anthropocene was sure a short time.

Coral cover around popular Great Barrier Reef islands has almost halved
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/25/coral-cover-around-popular-great-barrier-reef-islands-has-almost-halved
Quote
Scientists are concerned that major coral bleaching and heat stress events caused by ocean heating will hit the Great Barrier Reef at intervals too short to let corals recover.
The reef, the world’s biggest coral reef system, was hit by major bleaching events in 2016 and 2017, with impacts concentrated in the northern parts of the reef.
The study also questioned a previous conclusion that corals on inshore reefs were more tolerant of higher temperatures.
This is imperiling the largest structure ever built by living things.

Images reveal Iceland's glacier melt
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50160039
Quote
A photography project has highlighted the extent of ice loss from Iceland's glaciers.
A team from Scotland and Iceland compared photographs taken in the 1980s with present-day drone images.
They focused on the south side of the Vatnajökull ice cap, which covers about 7,700sq km of land.
Dr Kieran Baxter, from the University of Dundee, said: "We saw a staggering difference in a very short amount of time."
Will we someday have before and after pictures of Greenland and Antarctica?

Climate change is wiping out Harriet Tubman’s homeland, and we’re doing little
https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2019/10/24/climate-change-claiming-harriet-tubman-homeland-among-other-key-sites/hCnqd8w61SdnWBVJvfYTkI/story.html?fbclid=IwAR3PGCxtFnUKlzzRye5QG4Bz9Xf4NxxsDO4vJ9xMaGWe-XiK1IPdJ8UcE9g
Quote
The Chesapeake Bay and the rivers that feed it are rising, along with most of the rest of the world’s bodies of water, encroaching on the now-marshy expanses where Tubman lived and worked alongside her father, Benjamin Ross, a gifted woodsman. The land is subsiding, too, as farmers withdraw water to irrigate crops and communities reach ever deeper into the aquifers for clean drinking water. Graves, some unmarked, are collapsing, hidden in woods next to forlorn houses of worship. Ghost forests dot the landscape, once-lush loblolly pines reduced to mere skinny sticks; timbering thinned the forests, and saltwater intrusion is trying to finish the leveling.
The loss of these lands will make it much harder for future generations to understand Tubman’s story and how the community of freed and enslaved peoples networked and relied on each other to free themselves from bondage. That Maryland — and the rest of the nation — might be willing to lose these places speaks volumes about how governments and preservationists view the first lands that African-Americans were able to call their own.
Every coastal area on Earth is in this crisis, of course.

Why Rising Acidification Poses a Special Peril for Warming Arctic Waters
https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-rising-acidification-poses-a-special-peril-for-warming-arctic-waters
Quote
“Warm, fresh, and sour,” says Stedmon of the changes sweeping Arctic seas, which, along with the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica, are acidifying faster than any other marine waters on the planet. He and the rest of the crew of researchers from across Europe are trying to decipher how a warming Arctic is, as Stedmon puts it, “melting ice, freshening seawater, and reducing its ability to resist acidification.”
A triple threat. The Arctic Ocean is doomed.

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: dnem on October 27, 2019, 01:27:36 PM
Stopping Global Warming Will Cost $50 Trillion: Morgan Stanley Report
https://www.forbes.com/sites/sergeiklebnikov/2019/10/24/stopping-global-warming-will-cost-50-trillion-morgan-stanley-report/#4293ed251e23
Quote
While estimates vary on the cost of halting global warming and reducing net carbon emissions to zero, a new report from Morgan Stanley analysts finds that to do so by 2050 the world will need to spend $50 trillion in five key areas of zero-carbon technology.
OK, this isn't even a ---- here and a ---- there...we are talking real money right now.

Real money right now? The global economy is US $84 T/yr. So this nonsense is suggesting we can "stop global warming" by spending $50 T over 30 years, or about 2% of global GDP over the period.  And the article even tosses in a few stock picks so you can make extra money along the way!  Yah, that's it, as long as the global industrial machine devotes a couple of percent of its investment to big "renewable energy" projects, everything will be fine, carry on folks, nothing to see here. Oh, and buy these stocks.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 28, 2019, 06:17:17 PM
Climate change is wiping out Harriet Tubman’s homeland, and we’re doing little
https://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2019/10/24/climate-change-claiming-harriet-tubman-homeland-among-other-key-sites/hCnqd8w61SdnWBVJvfYTkI/story.html?fbclid=IwAR3PGCxtFnUKlzzRye5QG4Bz9Xf4NxxsDO4vJ9xMaGWe-XiK1IPdJ8UcE9g
Quote
The Chesapeake Bay and the rivers that feed it are rising, along with most of the rest of the world’s bodies of water, encroaching on the now-marshy expanses where Tubman lived and worked alongside her father, Benjamin Ross, a gifted woodsman. The land is subsiding, too, as farmers withdraw water to irrigate crops and communities reach ever deeper into the aquifers for clean drinking water. Graves, some unmarked, are collapsing, hidden in woods next to forlorn houses of worship. Ghost forests dot the landscape, once-lush loblolly pines reduced to mere skinny sticks; timbering thinned the forests, and saltwater intrusion is trying to finish the leveling.
The loss of these lands will make it much harder for future generations to understand Tubman’s story and how the community of freed and enslaved peoples networked and relied on each other to free themselves from bondage. That Maryland — and the rest of the nation — might be willing to lose these places speaks volumes about how governments and preservationists view the first lands that African-Americans were able to call their own.
Every coastal area on Earth is in this crisis, of course.

The Chesapeake Bay coastline including the tidewater sections of the rivers is 11,684 miles long. All of it is low elevation tidewaters. The entire U.S. Gulf coastline is 1,631 miles.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 31, 2019, 06:44:37 PM
Climate Change Is Benefiting Terrorists In Somalia
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinero/2019/10/27/climate-change-is-benefiting-terrorists-in-somalia/#335f01e51016
Quote
The more punishing climate is damaging means of earning a living, as most Somalis rely on agriculture, forestry, or fishing for their food and their income. For instance, long-used grazing routes don’t offer much food for livestock anymore. So nomadic herders (94% of whom live in poverty) need to find new pasture or new livelihoods. This brings them into conflict with non-nomadic communities, over land as well as water. Meanwhile, the amount of cultivable land is diminishing due to land degradation and other environmental processes, leading to rising tensions between different clans attempting to hold onto land.
So what good is killing the head of ISIS?

A disastrous disconnect
https://publicintegrity.org/environment/one-disaster-away/a-dangerous-disconnect-disaster-prone-states/
Quote
Flash floods have troubled Kentucky for decades. Now, extreme rainstorms are worsening with climate change, increasing the odds of more disasters like the one Bentley’s community endured. For Kentucky’s poorest residents, the people living in flood-prone hollows with surface mines nearby, that means an ever-present threat to both life and hard-won possessions.
But the state isn’t on the front lines of the fight against global warming. Its leaders, concerned about the impact on coal, have positioned themselves on the other side of that battle.
That’s created a dangerous and expensive disconnect — and not just in Kentucky, a Center for Public Integrity analysis shows.
So increasing climate stress does not necessarily lead to climate action

South Africa rations water to save dwindling supplies
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-drought/south-africa-rations-water-to-save-dwindling-supplies-idUSKBN1X71H0
Quote
“Indications are that are our rainfall patterns are getting harder to predict. What we’re seeing, like other parts of the globe, is the dry season is getting longer, harsher and more intense. Climate change is a reality and is affecting South Africa.”
Wait till you have to choose between flushing the toilet or taking a bath.

Climate change increases flooding risk to homes, study shows
https://www.ft.com/content/a170fca6-f767-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654
Quote
The number of households in Britain at risk of flooding will more than double by 2050 to more than 1.9m owing to the effects of climate change, research from data provider MSCI has found.
Had a flood in my condo when the patio drain plugged.
It's cost was in four figures.

Farmer to sue German government over failure to tackle climate change
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/farmer-court-germany-government-climate-change-crop-failure-a9174451.html
Quote
"We’ve lost over a third of our millet crop, half our hay crop,” Mr Schwienhorst said. “It’s a catastrophe.”
Well, one consequence could be clogging the courts...

California’s fire season is longer and deadlier than ever, causing annual treks south by Oregon firefighters
https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2019/10/californias-fire-season-is-longer-and-deadlier-than-ever-causing-annual-treks-south-by-oregon-firefighters.html
Quote
The fires have become progressively worse in recent years - and experts believe they're a harbinger of an even bigger problem.
As Beaver said to Franklin Turtle "In a fire you lose everything.

How Climate Change Could Shift California’s Santa Ana Winds, Fueling Fires
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/28/climate/santa-ana-winds.html
Quote
Recent research suggests that as the climate warms, Santa Ana winds may become less frequent. Coupled with precipitation changes, that could mean more intense fires later in the year.
Sigh. Another feedback...

The California fires show how unprepared we are for climate change
https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/29/20936979/california-kincade-fire-wild-climate-change-disaster-preparedness
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Fires are a fact of life in California, but the state’s fire season has grown wilder and more destructive as the planet warms, and these fires give us a taste of what climate change will mean in human terms. Longer droughts and more unpredictable winds turn what would once have been manageable fires into region-wide catastrophes. We’re only one year removed from the largest fire in California history, and few think that record will hold much longer. The slow-moving nature of the climate crisis means that, under even the best scenarios, these fires will keep growing for the next 40 years. The longer we keep going this way, the more powerful they’ll get.
and
Shifting Winds and the Changing Shape of California Fires
https://www.wired.com/story/santa-ana-winds-might-dwindle-but-fire-danger-remains/
Quote
Even if fewer Santa Anas mean fewer wildfires, it won’t mean no wildfires. Remember that climate change is disrupting the whole system. “We were like, well, this is good news in terms of wildfires,” Guzman-Morales says. “But then, wildfires are not caused solely by Santa Ana winds. It’s a conjunction of weather conditions, and we can’t forget precipitation.” October brings fires in part because rain-free summers dry out hillside vegetation, and other researchers have found that climate change is pushing the rainy season back in SoCal. Right now, the Santa Anas continue all through the winter, but they don’t start as many fires because the rains come, too. In the future, all that vegetation will stay drier for longer, which means more chances for ignition. By 2025, fire season might just be Christmas.
Burn, baby, burn.

Chateau Viking: Climate Change Makes Northern Wine a Reality
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chateau-viking-climate-change-makes-northern-wine-a-reality-11572366566
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Vintners in Scandinavia are growing bold with their marketing, winning awards and prompting predictable sniffs from the French. ‘I don’t think they are at all our level yet.’
Well, at least I can still get my Communion Wine from somewhere.

Far more people are threatened by rising seas than scientists realized, a study shows: 'The magnitude of the numbers speaks for itself'
https://www.businessinsider.com/sea-levl-rise-flooding-risk-higher-estimates-2019-10
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The number of people threatened by sea-level rise and high-tide flooding around the world could be triple previous estimates, according to a new study.
The research found that 110 million people currently live below the high-tide line, and 250 million live on land below current annual flood levels — that's far higher than previous estimates.
If greenhouse-gas emissions continue unabated, up to 630 million people globally could occupy land below projected annual flood levels by 2100.
Warming ocean water and unprecedented ice-sheet melt could cause sea levels to rise by more than 3 feet by the end of the century.
People tend to build big cities where ocean ships can arrive/depart.
And these tend to be at sea level.


Climate change could leave southern Britain ‘unable’ to support crops
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/farming-climate-change-crisis-latest-uk-crops-a9175961.html
Quote
If emissions continue at current rates, Britain will be 5C warmer by the end of the century, and would experience up to 140mm less rainfall during the growing season between April and September, according to the paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters.
5C by 2100 is over a degree F a decade. And those Brits will have to get their food somewhere, so everyone will have too pay more.

Minnesota birds affected by climate change: Itasca County loons remain stable
https://www.grandrapidsmn.com/free_press/minnesota-birds-affected-by-climate-change-itasca-county-loons-remain/article_352bf012-f764-11e9-b6ee-2bab6a2e2e9c.html
Quote
In the report, “Survival by Degrees: 389 Bird Species on the Brink,” published by the National Audubon Society, Minnesota’s state bird was listed as one of 55 species that are likely to disappear from the state by 2080 if greenhouse-gas emissions are not cut. Gaea Crozier, Nongame Wildlife Specialist with the Division of Ecological and Water Resources at the Grand Rapids Department of Natural Resources, shared what they have observed in the common loon population of Itasca County.
Birds survived Chixculub. Will this be what brings a Silent Spring?

World unprepared for impact of climate change on mountain water supplies: experts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-mountain-summit-previe/world-unprepared-for-impact-of-climate-change-on-mountain-water-supplies-experts-idUSKBN1X8193
Quote
“We are woefully underprepared. Our infrastructure was built in the 19th and 20th centuries in the mountains and downstream of the mountains and we don’t have that climate any more,” said John Pomeroy, a professor at Canada’s University of Saskatchewan, who is co-chairing the event.
Either too much or not enough. AGW is messing up water everywhere.

Deadly Algae Are Creeping Northward
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/10/plague-toxic-algae-making-shellfish-deadly/600406/
Quote
Globally, HABs are exploding. In recent years, toxic blooms have started to occur in places where they’ve never happened before, and during more months of the year. The expansion of HABs is linked to rising sea temperatures, but pollution, the dumping of ballast water from ships, and the transplantation of shellfish stocks may also play a role.
The Mandarin Seafood Buffet closed down in Twinsburg, so my eating of ocean food is already defunct.

The False Comfort of Higher Seawalls
https://newrepublic.com/article/155519/false-comfort-higher-seawalls
Quote
As climate change races towards us, hurricanes are growing more destructive. Studies have suggested that today’s climate made Harvey more intense than it might have otherwise been. Such storms will become more frequent. Basic physics dictates that a warmer atmosphere holds more water, meaning that heavy downpours are becoming all the more common and intense as the world heats up. An ever-changing and transmogrifying enemy is hard to tackle: “It highlights the need to consider that our hazards are changing over time, and that we should be considering those changes in the design of our infrastructure,” Antonia Sebastian, a flood engineer at Rice University, said in a 2017 press release on her and other scientists’ Harvey-related research.
Maybe everybody should just get brooms and sweep back the sea?

Rising seas will erase more cities by 2050, new research shows
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/29/climate/coastal-cities-underwater.html
Quote
Scientists devised a better way to calculate land elevations and their findings are dire: Far more cities will be inundated by climate change than previously thought.
and
Shocking New Maps Show How Sea Level Rise Will Destroy Coastal Cities By 2050
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2019/10/30/shocking-new-maps-show-how-sea-level-rise-will-destroy-coastal-cities-by-2050/#7bb3eedb456c
Quote
By 2050, sea-level rise will push average annual coastal floods higher than land now home to 300 million people, according to a study published in Nature Communications. High tides could permanently rise above land occupied by over 150 million people, including 30 million in China. Without advanced coastal defense and planning, populations in these areas may face permanent flooding within 30 years.
A baby conceived today will be only 30 years old then.

California shows the difficulties of hardening the nation to climate change
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/california-shows-the-difficulties-of-hardening-the-nation-to-climate-change/2019/10/29/3e1a902e-f9c7-11e9-8190-6be4deb56e01_story.html
Quote
There is a bigger lesson for California, as for every other state. Hardening the nation to the effects of climate change will not just require sea walls around large coastal cities. It will demand expensive infrastructure changes and shifts in routine all over the economy — as with power lines surrounded by vegetation that is increasingly dry and combustible. Some of these changes will be unexpected, unwelcome and difficult to predict. Government and corporate leaders must nevertheless try. The first goal, about which the Trump administration remains inexcusably negligent, is to restrain the warming as much as possible. The second is to prepare for the warming that is already on its way.
AGW changes everything.


How climate change creates a ‘new abnormal’ for the real estate market
https://www.curbed.com/2019/10/29/20930330/real-estate-climate-change-federal-reserve-flooding
Quote
According to a 2018 report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, “Underwater: Rising Seas, Chronic Floods, and the Implications for U.S. Coastal Real Estate,” an estimated 300,000 residential and commercial properties will likely face chronic and disruptive flooding by 2045, threatening $135 billion in property damage and forcing 280,000 Americans to adapt or relocate. This long-term analysis of how increased flooding will depress coastal real estate noted, alarmingly, that most investors in and developers of coastal real estate do not factor these risks into current value projections. Worldwide, according to the International Monetary Fund, significant assets, including property, could be “stranded” due to climate change, a reference to being both physically inaccessible and financially drained of value.
And these are just a few examples.

Climate change a financial and investment risk - report
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/402165/climate-change-a-financial-and-investment-risk-report
Quote
The forum's interim report set out the considerable financial risk to industry and government, where climate change was concerned, and included a legal opinion from Circle partner Chapman Tripp, which clarified the legal obligations directors and fund managers have to account for climate change in their decision-making.
Are you an investor, or do you know one?

11 ways climate change and air pollution can damage your health
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/lifestyle/11-ways-climate-change-and-air-pollution-can-damage-your-health-960749.html
Quote
Premature birth and stillbirth
ADHD and low IQ
Asthma and childhood respiratory illnesses
Cardiovascular disease
Cancer
Obesity
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
Dementia
Diabetes
Mental Health
Spread of Disease
Are those enough for you?

EDIT:

Climate crisis: business leaders say cost to taxpayers will spiral unless new policies introduced
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/oct/30/climate-crisis-business-leaders-say-cost-to-taxpayers-will-spiral-unless-new-policies-introduced
Quote
A joint letter by 10 business organisations, including the Australian Industry Group and the National Farmers’ Federation, says the government will either need to back new climate policies that drive private-sector action or boost taxpayer funding now and into the future.
What is true for Australia is true for your nation.

Another Rising Cost of Climate Change: PG&E's Blackouts, Now Needed to Prevent Wildfires
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/30102019/california-wildfires-cost-climate-change-blackouts-business-schools
Quote
Shutting down the power has become PG&E's primary defense to keep its troubled power lines from sparking wildfires in the dry landscape, as happened in 2017 and 2018 to deadly effect.
It also vividly illustrates how the costs of failing to address climate change reach far wider than just property lost to the flames. The blackouts, while likely saving homes and lives, mean many businesses and industries can't operate, schools can't open, and gas stations remain shuttered. For small businesses, several days without power or customers could be devastating. Just the blackouts alone could cost the state billions.
You just can't win for losing.

'Frightening.' Scientists contemplate the melting Arctic
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1061411229
Quote
Leaving the central Arctic is a special kind of bittersweet. For many travelers, there's a good chance they'll never visit again. And for those who do, the region could look dramatically different the next time they see it.
That's because Arctic temperatures are rising at least twice as fast as the rest of the globe. And as the region warms, the sea ice that covers the Arctic Ocean is steadily melting away.
Maybe we will have to change the title of this forum to The Arctic Sea Water Forum.

Climate change drives policy change in West Van
https://www.nsnews.com/news/climate-change-drives-policy-change-in-west-van-1.23991756
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While most of the major tools to tackle GHGs are in provincial and federal hands, municipalities do influence where people live and how they get around through their official community plans. In West Vancouver’s case, the recommendation is densification of smaller, more efficient homes around walkable village centres with access to transit and active transportation options.
At least one consequence of AGW is positive.

Climate Change Is Already Affecting Western PA, How Can We Manage The Inevitable Effects?
https://www.wesa.fm/post/climate-change-already-affecting-western-pa-how-can-we-manage-inevitable-effects#stream/0
Quote
“For example, we’re getting more of our precipitation is happening in very heavy events that lead to flash flooding … and we can expect them to increase into the future,” said Penn State University's Ray Najjar. 
Heavy precipitation can cause significant infrastructure damage and exacerbate sewer overflows.
“If we choose, however, to reduce our emissions, we’ll probably still continue to see those effects, but to a much more manageable degree," he said.
That's a pretty big 'if'.

People with disabilities unsheltered in Tornado Alley
https://publicintegrity.org/environment/one-disaster-away/people-with-disabilities-unsheltered-in-tornado-alley/
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Disasters are becoming more common in America. In the early and mid-20th century, fewer than 20 percent of U.S. counties experienced a disaster each year. Today, it’s about 50 percent. According to the 2018 National Climate Assessment, climate change is already driving more severe droughts, floods and wildfires in the U.S. And those disasters are expensive. The federal government spends billions of dollars annually helping communities rebuild and prevent future damage.
So why did Oklahoma close down its shelters?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2019, 07:29:12 PM
Algae blooms to make glaciers melt faster than thought: scientists
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-mountainsummit/algae-blooms-to-make-glaciers-melt-faster-than-thought-scientists-idUSKBN1XA1WQ
Quote
“Glacial darkening” is where deep purple, bulbous algae sprout on a layer of naturally occurring dust mixed with soot from air pollution and forest fires. Their presence has been confirmed for decades but as temperatures rise, more algae are thriving on the ice surface, staining glaciers the world over.
Feedback No. 721.

One Wildfire is Spewing Enough Smoke to Rival 320,000 Cars
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-31/one-wildfire-is-spewing-enough-smoke-to-rival-320-000-cars?srnd=climate-changed
Quote
“The increase in fires makes it incredibly difficult to meet our goals,” said Jim Randerson, professor of earth system science at University of California, Irvine.


In 2017, for instance, California cut its carbon dioxide output from from power generation, transportation and other sources by about 5 million metric tons, or about 1% from the previous year. Wildfires, meanwhile, spewed 36.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, according to the California Air Resources Board.
Feedback No.722.

The dead can't escape climate change
https://www.eenews.net/stories/1061420585
Quote
The dead rise in Louisiana. All it takes is some floodwater.
People in this low-lying state are typically buried in aboveground vaults — the bane of Charlie Hunter, chief investigator for the Calcasieu Parish Coroner's Office, who has to hunt down the caskets that get washed away during floods. It's become a serious part of his job over the past decade.
The caskets and their surface vaults are sealed airtight, so pressure builds inside them when a hurricane or flash flood covers them in water. Moisture weakens the vault seal, and eventually the water begins to bubble with dead air — the tell-tale sign a casket is ready to pop out of its grave, Hunter said.
You mean you can't get away from AGW even after you're dead!?

The Coming Flood: A Data Error Is Corrected, and Our Future Is Rewritten
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/sea-level-rise-climate-central-study-906178/
Quote
According to the new analysis, roughly three times as many people are at risk from being inundated by rising seas than previously reported — 150 million people are now living on land that will be below high tide by 2050. And this is a hopeful scenario, where warming is held to 2 degrees C and the ice sheets don’t collapse in the near future. In a more pessimistic scenario, the numbers double to 300 million people flooded out by 2050. That is roughly equivalent to the entire population of the United States going underwater in the next three decades.
Even I'm stunned by that number.

Carbon emissions from loss of intact tropical forest a ‘ticking time bomb’
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/carbon-emissions-from-loss-of-intact-tropical-forest-a-ticking-time-bomb/
Quote
When undisturbed tropical forests are lost the long-term impact on carbon emissions is dramatically higher than earlier estimates suggest, according to a new study.
Between 2000 and 2013, about 7 percent of the world’s intact tropical forests were destroyed, leading not just to direct carbon emissions but also “hidden” emissions from logging, fragmentation and wildlife loss.
Another key difference between the old and new estimates is that the latter take into account the diminished carbon sequestration potential of these forests.
The authors write that the indigenous communities who live in and protect about 35 percent of these forests will have a bigger role to play in the fight against climate change.
Clock reads 11:59:58.

Facing a future of flooding, Hillsborough County officials ponder how to keep communities above water
https://www.tampabay.com/news/hillsborough/2019/10/30/facing-a-future-of-flooding-hillsborough-county-officials-ponder-how-to-keep-communities-above-water/
Quote
To county officials, the headlines are the stuff of nightmares.
The waters in Tampa Bay could rise above today’s sea level by as much as 8.5 feet by 2100, one report says.
That's almost three feet above my head.

Finding The Right Chunk Of Arctic Ice
https://www.npr.org/2019/11/01/775305573/finding-the-right-chunk-of-arctic-ice
Quote
A ship full of researchers is crossing the Arctic attached to an ice floe. But finding the right chunk of sea ice was a challenge, in part because warmer temperatures are making it thinner.
Even scientific research is being endangered.

In Napa Valley, Winemakers Fight Climate Change on All Fronts
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/31/dining/drinks/napa-valley-wine-climate-change.html
Quote
Wine producers are grappling with a maelstrom caused by a warming planet: heat waves, droughts, cold snaps, wildfires and more.
The drink of civilization for millennia going away?

This classroom on a Chesapeake Bay island taught generations of students. As the sea rises, its doors are closing.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/this-classroom-on-a-chesapeake-bay-island-taught-generations-of-students-as-the-sea-rises-its-doors-are-closing/2019/10/31/cccfd2be-fbea-11e9-8190-6be4deb56e01_story.html
Quote
In 1773, when the island was first discovered, its land stretched for about 426 acres, said Tom Horton, an author and former Baltimore Sun reporter who has written eight books about the Chesapeake Bay.

When the Chesapeake Bay Foundation conducted a satellite survey earlier this year, the group found there were about 34 acres left.
At that rate it will be gone in my lifetime.

Rising Seas Threaten Tens of Millions More People with Inundation, Study Says. Even That May Underestimate the Impact
https://www.circleofblue.org/2019/world/rising-seas-threaten-tens-of-millions-more-people-with-inundation-study-says-even-that-may-underestimate-the-impact/
Quote
The Climate Central study did not account for relative sea-level rise. It assumed that land elevations remained constant. In the dynamic world, that is not the case.
Some of the most dramatic land alterations are a result of local and regional water use. Locally, groundwater pumping can cause the land to compact, lowering its elevation. This subsidence is occurring in coastal megacities across Asia, including Bangkok, Dhaka, and Jakarta, where a sea wall protects land that is already below sea level.
So even this study underestimates the situation.

Wildfires pose new threats as homes burn, releasing toxic fumes
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/airborne-health-concerns-emerge-from-california-wildfire/
Quote
The samples he collects will help scientists better understand how the massive increase in seasonal wildfires burning through residential areas might be affecting our health. Where smoke once contained the remnants of only biomass (trees and other organic matter), fires are now burning up homes—structures that contain thousands of synthetic chemicals, paints, plastics, and metals that smolder and combust into tiny particles.
So not only are fires getting bigger and more frequent, they are more poisonous.

The ice used to protect them.
Now their island is crumbling into the sea.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/world/climate-environment/canada-quebec-islands-climate-change/
Quote
The more than 12,000 residents of this windswept Canadian archipelago are facing a growing number of gut-wrenching choices, as extreme climate change transforms the land and water around them. Season after season, storm after storm, it is becoming clearer that the sea, which has always sustained these islands, is now their greatest threat.
Quote
I like islands. I'm gonna miss them "Way down, under the ocean..."

If Emissions Continue, India Could See 1 Million Heat Deaths a Year
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/if-emissions-continue-india-could-see-1-million-heat-deaths-a-year/?utm_medium=social&utm_content=organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SciAm_&sf222767070=1
Quote
A new study predicts there’ll be more than 1 million deaths a year from extreme heat in India by the next century if greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current level.
Research by the Climate Impact Lab with the University of Chicago’s Tata Centre for Development projects India’s average annual temperature will rise 4 degrees by 2100.
This, I must admit, is getting close to the abortion toll in America.
This is worrying me.

Climate Change Is Burning Down California. It's Time We Stopped Adding Fuel to the Fire
https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-california-fuel-fire-1468431
Quote
Once a fire ignites, the conditions fostered by climate change increase the size, frequency, and intensity of wildfires, and lengthen the fire season. A slew of studies have identified these climate change signals in recent western wildfire trends. Climate change has led to an average temperature increase of 2°F in the western U.S., and this is making fires worse by heating up and drying out the landscape. When the ground is parched and plants are dry, it's far easier for fire to spread further, and faster.
Do I have to say it? Eedbackfay.

California wildfires: Climate change driving ‘horror and the terror’ of devastating blazes, say scientists
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/california-wildfire-climate-change-evacuation-santa-ana-winds-devil-diablo-a9181886.html
Quote
“I said it was the new normal a few years ago,’’ says Jerry Brown. “This is serious, but this is only the beginning. This is only a taste of the horror and the terror that will occur in decades.”
Drier, warmer weather makes wildfires worse.

Melting in the arctic may trigger more abrupt climate change than predicted: Study
https://www.dailyexcelsior.com/melting-in-the-arctic-may-trigger-more-abrupt-climate-change-than-predicted-study-2/
Quote
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, suggests that the severity of wildfires could double from one year to the next, and remain at the new higher rate for several regions in Canada including Yukon, as the permafrost across the territories degrade.
If it weren't for bad news we would hardly have any news at all.

UK and Amsterdam pictured 'underwater in 80 years' in chilling doomsday map
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/uk-amsterdam-pictured-underwater-80-20801955
Quote
Amsterdam and parts of the UK have been pictured underwater in a terrifying flood map as rising sea levels threaten to wipe out huge chunks of the world, experts have claimed.
Coastal and in-land areas including Blackpool, Liverpool and Hull in the UK and almost all of the Netherlands could be wiped out as early as the year 2100, according to Climate Central.
Waterworld, here we come. Where's Kevin Costner when we need him?

‘I can’t believe how much of it is gone’: Chesapeake Bay Foundation says goodbye to Fox Island as seas rise
https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/environment/bs-md-fox-island-20191101-ch3lyq6bwbhp3djo3etl5acmhq-story.html
Quote
Those gradual changes can be hard to see in many places, but they appear in sharp relief on Fox Island, which has lost 70% of its area over the past half a century. The archipelago gets its name from a vivid resemblance it once bore to a fox in full stride, its tail wagging north and nose pointed south. That hasn’t been apparent from a bird’s-eye view for a long time.
Maybe they'll call it Fox Reef?



EDIT:


Why are birds and seals starving in a Bering Sea full of fish?
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/environment/why-are-birds-and-seals-starving-in-a-bering-sea-full-of-fish/
Quote
But as climate change warms the die-offs of seabirds and marine mammals have been on the rise. The grim tally includes a nearly fivefold increase in ice-seal carcasses spotted on shore, strandings of emaciated gray whales, and near the St. Lawrence Island village of Savoonga, a discouraging spectacle: auklets abandoning seaside nests as their chicks succumb to hunger.
You would think wildlife in the arctic would benefit from AGW, but nope.

Climate Change 101: A Kansas City Scientist Explains What's Going On
https://www.kcur.org/post/climate-change-101-kansas-city-scientist-explains-whats-going#stream/0
Quote
The changes in climate that people in the Kansas City region are now experiencing haven't been seen in previous lifetimes.
That's according to Doug Kluck, a regional climate services director for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He also spent 18 years with the National Weather Service as a researcher and forecaster.
KCUR recently sat down with Kluck in an effort to provide readers with some perspective on what's happening. Below is the edited version of that conversation.
It's not just the change, it is the speed.

Arctic islands 8 degrees warmer than normal
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2019/11/arctic-islands-8-degrees-warmer-norma
Quote
The Russian archipelagos of Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya experienced the warmest ever October on record. According to Russia’s meteorological service Roshydromet, average temperatures on the islands were up to eight degrees Celsius higher than normal.
Temperature maps from the meteorologists show a belt of warm air stretching across major parts of the Arctic. The biggest abnormalities are found in the area of the Franz Josef Land and Severnaya Zemlya, as well as further west in an area on the northeastern coast of Greenland.
And that's Celsius, not Fahrenheit.

Global Warming Is Already Destroying New England’s Fisheries
https://newrepublic.com/article/155586/global-warming-already-destroying-new-englands-fisheries
Quote
But deep down, we know better. And if the national discussion hasn’t moved to climate change in the Northeast yet, it soon will. The effects are already profound—they just happen to be underwater.
Fourth-generation fisherman Al Cottone holds no illusions of being spared climate impacts in 2019.  He captains one of the 15 fishing boats still active in the waters around Gloucester, Massachusetts. Not a decade ago, there were 50. To fish in the Gulf of Maine—the ocean inlet spanning from Cape Cod up to the southern tip of Nova Scotia—is to navigate one of the fastest-warming bodies of water on the planet. “It’s not something you see with your naked eye,” Cottone told me. “But fish are definitely reacting differently, and I’m attributing it to climate change. We’re seeing them in deeper water—they’re trying to get the right temperature at depth.”
Will this mean an end to my Lenten fish fries?

Sea level will rise for centuries. We can control how much and how fast.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/paris-agreement-period-still-leads-to-sea-level-rise/
Quote
But even if the U.S. stayed in the agreement, finds new research published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday, there are long-tail, unavoidable consequences for the world’s coastlines. Even if all countries hit their Paris targets by 2030 and then stopped emitting carbon entirely, an unrealistic scenario but a useful thought experiment, the world’s oceans will still slosh higher. Under these idealistic conditions, by 2300—about eight generations away—sea levels around the world will be about 3 feet higher than today, the scientists say.
Of course, we will not even get close to meeting these goals.

Thirsty future ahead as climate change explodes plant growth
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/10/plants-consume-more-water-climate-change-thirsty-future/
Quote
By the end of the century plants could consume substantially more water, leaving less for people across North America, Europe, and Central Asia—even if it rains and snows more, a new study reports today in the journal Nature Geoscience.
So we will have to choose between drinking and eating?

A Lake With Stingless Jellyfish and Hints of Hotter Seas
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/world/asia/indonesia-marine-lake-stingless-jellyfish.html
Quote
For divers, the millions of harmless jellyfish in an Indonesian lake are must-see novelties. For scientists, the warmer, more acidic and less oxygenated water is “a projection of our future climate.”
Maybe we can have jellyfish fries on Lenten Fridays?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 06, 2019, 08:31:23 PM
I couldn't find the documentaries thread via 'search' so I'll post this here.

Another recording of a great and insightfull talk by Jeremy Jackson, emeritus professor of Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
From 40m40 on he says a very important thing.

Provost's Lecture 16 Oct 2018
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Qbpo7LcbQQ

edit: improved wording of second sentence
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 08, 2019, 09:25:20 PM
Most countries aren't hitting 2030 climate goals, and everyone will pay the price
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2019/11/nations-miss-paris-targets-climate-driven-weather-events-cost-billions/
Quote
Their report, “The Truth Behind the Paris Agreement Climate Pledges,” warns that by 2030, the failure to reduce emissions will cost the world a minimum of $2 billion per day in economic losses from weather events made worse by human-induced climate change. Moreover, weather events and patterns will hurt human health, livelihoods, food, and water, as well as biodiversity.
Will we miss the goals? Of course we will.

Wall Street increasingly weighs risk from climate change
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-results-climatechange-analysis/wall-street-increasingly-weighs-risk-from-climate-change-idUSKBN1XF2CS
Quote
Investors, analysts, research firms and companies are putting more emphasis on how climate issues ranging from rising sea levels to record heatwaves will affect profits and revenues in the United States and what companies are doing to address those risks.
Is your company prepared?

The Tragic Irony of “America First” Climate Denial
https://newrepublic.com/article/155604/tragic-irony-america-first-climate-denial
Quote
There are consequences for all of these actions, but those consequences are rarely felt by those pulling the strings. Biodiversity is decreasing at an alarming rate, raising the the threat of an “extinction crisis.” The oceans are rising, both in terms of sea level and temperature. And the natural wonders both on land and in the water are rapidly decaying. Native nations in the Midwest are being flooded and left by state forces to fend for themselves; fishers across the country—from the Northeast to all along the Mississippi River and out along the Gulf—are being put out of business due to polluted and warming waterways. Farming is becoming harder and harder—particularly for the dwindling population of small farmers. The poorest citizens in low-sitting cities like New Orleans and Miami have, maybe, another couple of decades before they’ll be forced to relocate. Meanwhile, the closest the wealthy have come to being truly harmed by the volatile effects of climate change is when a celebrity has been forced to live-tweet their departure from a hillside mansion in California to a nearby five-star hotel as forest fires inch closer.
And the band plays on...

Our Wine Critic Reviews Climate Change’s Impact on an Industry
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/reader-center/wine-industry-climate-change.html
Quote
Eric Asimov says we have to rethink every element of wine, from where we farm it to how we buy it.
And how we drink it?

Virus from tick that killed former Sen. Hagan has never been detected in N.C.
https://www.northcarolinahealthnews.org/2019/11/05/virus-from-tick-that-killed-former-sen-hagan-has-never-been-detected-in-n-c/
Quote
The study — “Ticking Bomb: The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease” — examined the relationship between climate change and Lyme disease in the 15 states that contributed to more than 95 percent of reported cases.
“Complex interactions between humans and climate change are contributing to the emergence of new diseases and the spread of already known ones to regions where they were unable to exist before.” the study concludes. “Environmental factors such as temperature and humidity have been shown to influence tick abundance, availability of hosts, their survival, and disease transmission.”
The study predicts that the number of Lyme disease cases in the United States will increase by more than 20 percent in the coming decades.
I never even heard of the disease in the report.
But Carl Sagan never heard of the disease that killed him, either.


Despite a Warmer, Wetter World, There May Be Less Water Available for Human Use, Study Finds
https://e360.yale.edu/digest/despite-a-warmer-wetter-world-there-may-be-less-water-available-for-human-use-study-finds
Quote
Mankin and his colleagues’ findings suggest wetter land will be limited to tropics and extremely high latitudes where freshwater is already plentiful and competition for it is low. Plants in the mid-latitudes, on the other hand, are projected to need more water, making the land drier.
Let them drink wine (see above).

Earth sizzles through October as another month ranks as the warmest on record
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/05/earth-sizzles-through-october-another-month-ranks-warmest-record/
Quote
During October, the Western United States and parts of Canada stood out for being cooler than average. However, temperatures were “markedly above average” over much of the Arctic, where sea ice extent hit a record low for the month. Europe was warmer than average, as was the Eastern United States and Canada, the Middle East and much of North Africa and Russia.
Look at the map in the article. Two-thirds of the United States are blue, while almost the world outside is red.

Climate change may affect your homeowner’s insurance policy in 2 ways
https://www.businessinsider.my/climate-change-may-affect-your-homeowners-insurance-policy-in-2-ways/
Quote
Dramatic weather events are on the rise all over the world thanks to climate change.
While homeowner’s insurance typically covers things like wildfire and tornado damage, earthquakes require additional coverage.
Homeowners in high-risk areas will want to re-evaluate their policies with the help of an insurance adviser, though all homeowners can expect their premiums to climb thanks to the rising cost of weather-related disasters.
Insurance, shminsurance. I'll just not have it.
Ooops…

Burkina Faso: Climate Change Triggers Rural Exodus
http://www.ipsnews.net/2019/11/burkina-faso-climate-change-triggers-rural-exodus/
Quote
The Sahel is experiencing an overall decrease in rainfall, but also a depletion of soils due to agricultural overexploitation and progressive deforestation of the original savannahs by cutting firewood, bush fires and stray animals, the NGO SOS Enfants explains.
“Climate changes are evident throughout Burkina Faso. The eastern and southwestern parts of the country, which generally have more favourable weather, are increasingly hit by high temperatures and pockets of drought,” the U.N. Development Programme says on Adaptation-undp.org.
From employing 90 percent of the country’s almost 7-million strong workforce in 2012, as per FAO figures, the agriculture sector now provides 80 percent of all jobs, still accounting for a third of the country’s GDP. However, more than 3.5 million people are food insecure, according to a USAID report.
Farmers in Burkina Faso, and especially those living in the Sahelian areas of this country, are now facing a serious problem of food security and growing impoverishment, SOS Enfants has pointed out. Conflicts over land use and massive migrations are persistent.
One of these days I'm gonna post Led Zepplins's "Immigrant Song" on Good Music.

Goat farmers at climate change frontline in Argentina's wine belt
https://www.batimes.com.ar/news/argentina/goat-farmers-at-climate-change-frontline-in-argentinas-wine-belt.phtml
Quote
Goat breeders scattered along the Andes foothills on the frontline of climate change, where conditions force them to take their herds higher up the mountains every year in order to graze. 
Zen koan: Climb to the top of the mountain. Then climb higher.

Wildfire smoke is a silent killer — and climate change is making it worse
https://grist.org/article/wildfire-smoke-is-a-silent-killer-and-climate-change-is-making-it-worse/
Quote
Researchers expect that particulate matter from wildfires will rise dramatically in the Western U.S. as the planet warms. One study estimates that between 2046 and 2051, wildfire-related PM2.5 levels will likely increase by 160 percent on average if temperatures continue to rise. Northern California, the Pacific Northwest, and forests in the northern Rocky Mountains will experience the worst of it, the researchers concluded.
Advice for living in the year 2051...don't breathe the air.


Study: Sea level rise likely to be determined by speed of carbon emission reductions
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2019/11/06/Study-Sea-level-rise-likely-to-be-determined-by-speed-of-carbon-emission-reductions/4051573056299/
Quote
Climate change has already caused sea levels to rise, and new research suggests warming air and ocean temps are going to continue to melt glaciers and promote higher seas. But how quickly sea levels rise, researchers contend, depends on how fast the world's governments can shrink carbon emissions to zero.
According to a new study, even if countries meet all of their emissions reduction targets set by the 2015 Paris Agreement by 2030, those 15 years of CO2 emissions will bake another 8 inches of sea-level rise into the system.
How long can you tread water?

Climate Change May Be Making Deer Evolve to Give Birth Earlier in the Year, Scientists Discover
https://www.newsweek.com/red-deer-give-birth-year-climate-change-1470035
Quote
Researchers say their findings represent some of the first evidence that evolutionary changes are affecting the time of year that wild animals give birth.
I hope they can adapt. I loved reading Bambi when I was 11.

A deadly virus is spreading in marine mammals. Scientists say climate change is to blame.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/deadly-virus-spreading-marine-mammals-scientists-say-climate-change-blame-n1078331
Quote
Their conclusion: Melting Arctic sea ice brought on by the Earth’s warming climate created a way for the virus to move into a new region and infect a new population of sea life.
Humans aren't the only ones to suffer from AGW. Sea otters and seals suffer as well.


Climate Change Could Make Russia Great Again
https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/.premium.MAGAZINE-climate-change-could-make-russia-great-again-1.8094614
Quote
A decade ago, geologists estimated that 30 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves and 13 percent of its petroleum deposits were trapped beneath the ice floes of the Arctic Circle, along with rare minerals and other valuable resources. As the rising temperature melts the icebergs, not only will those resources become accessible but, as U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in May, “Steady reductions in sea ice are opening new passageways and new opportunities for trade. This could potentially slash the time it takes to travel between Asia and the West by as much as 20 days. Arctic sea lanes could become the 21st century Suez and Panama Canals.”
And how will this affect the global balance of power?

UK railways cannot cope with climate crisis, says rail boss
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/07/uk-railways-cannot-cope-with-effects-climate-change-warns-rail-boss
Quote
Britain’s railways can no longer cope with the effects of the climate crisis, a senior rail executive has warned.
Extreme weather events including heatwaves, storms and flooding have damaged infrastructure and halted thousands of services across the UK this year.
Alex Hynes, the managing director of Scotland’s railway, said more investment would be needed to future-proof the railway against rising temperatures.
“The railway in this country can no longer cope because of climate change,” he said.
Maybe people will have to replace rail with cars and planes?  ???

Ontario plans to do assessment on impact of climate change
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ont-climate-assessment-1.5351577
Quote
Ontario will conduct a multi-year study to assess the impacts of climate change, but critics say the work will take too long and likely won't be complete before the next election.
Environment Minister Jeff Yurek announced the assessment, which will look at how climate change will affect the province's economy, environment, infrastructure and communities, on Thursday.
Spoiler: It will hurt. Bad.

One of the world's thickest mountain glaciers is melting because of global warming
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/11/07/climate-change-taku-glacier-starting-melt-due-global-warming/2517677001/
Quote
Up until now, of the 250 glaciers he has studied, all had retreated except one: Taku Glacier. But an analysis shows Taku has lost mass and joined the rest of the retreating glaciers.
“This is a big deal for me because I had this one glacier I could hold on to,” Pelto told NASA's Earth Observatory. “But not anymore. This makes the score climate change: 250, and alpine glaciers: 0.”
So the last one standing has fallen  :(

A 'green interest rate?' Fed digs into climate change economics
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-climate-change/a-green-interest-rate-fed-digs-into-climate-change-economics-idUSKBN1XH2G4
Quote
But as worries about the warming planet increase, the U.S. central bank is taking a closer look at the economic impacts of higher temperatures, more frequent severe weather, and rising sea levels.
About time. Maybe some economists are getting a clue?

This Popular Indian Festival Is Sinking Into the Sea
https://www.ozy.com/good-sht/the-annual-festival-slowly-disappearing-underwater/221651/
Quote
However, Sagar Island — and with it, the future of the festival — is under threat. Rising sea levels and coastal erosion are encroaching upon the land all across the Sundarbans, a delta of tiny islands nestled between east India and Bangladesh. The Kapil Muni Temple, where pilgrims offer prayers after a dip in the sea, has been moved several times to avoid being submerged.
One of my best friends is Indian. Perhaps I should ask her about this.


Note: Sorry about all the edits...the computer here is going wonky and I didn't want to lose all my work.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 12, 2019, 11:37:02 PM
AFTER THE WATER
https://apps.npr.org/ellicott-city/
Quote
When a flash flood ripped through Old Ellicott City in Maryland, residents thought it was a freak occurrence. Instead, it was a hint about the future. And adapting to that future has been painful.
A warmer atmosphere means a more energetic and water vapor filled atmosphere, thus more flash floods.

Deputy PM slams people raising climate change in relation to NSW bushfireshttps://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/raving-inner-city-lunatics-michael-mccormack-dismisses-link-between-climate-change-and-bushfires-20191111-p539ap.html
Quote
Glen Innes council mayor Carol Sparks, the first Greens member to hold that position, said last week "there's no doubt" climate change was contributing to drought and the lack of rain and said Prime Minister Scott Morrison should act on this.
So America is not the only nation with climatologically clueless heads of state.

Panel delves into impact of ocean acidification
https://www.capecodtimes.com/news/20191110/panel-delves-into-impact-of-ocean-acidification
Quote
According to Rheuban, several billion tons of carbon dioxide are emitted each year, and a quarter of that ends up in the ocean. As carbon dioxide levels in the ocean rise, the pH level goes down, resulting in acidification.
So even though the ocean soaks up CO2, that's bad.

Ireland could experience 'Armageddon weather' in near future due to global warming, experts warn
https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/ireland-could-experience-armageddon-weather-20855375
Quote
Ireland could end up with the climate of Iceland if the Gulf Steam completely shuts down
Think they will become climate deniers when it gets colder?

'Wildfires have turned the heat up on Donald Trump's climate change strategy'
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/us-news/wildfires-turned-heat-up-donald-20855122
Quote
While wildfires in this part of the world are not uncommon, climate change is one of the factors making matters worse. The Santa Ana winds have been a phenomenon for thousands of years. But these regular winds are leading to a crisis when they intersect with
the drier landscape and man-made triggers like the state’s failing private power infrastructure.
Add to the fact California is about three degrees ­Fahrenheit hotter today than it would be without climate change, meaning everything is now occurring against a warmer backdrop.
The wildfires are obviously a Chinese hoax.

Fed sees climate change shaping economy, policy
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-climate-change/fed-sees-climate-change-shaping-economy-policy-idUSKBN1XI218
Quote
“To fulfill our core responsibilities, it will be important for the Federal Reserve to study the implications of climate change for the economy and the financial system and to adapt our work accordingly,” Fed Governor Lael Brainard said in remarks released at the start of the Fed’s first-ever conference on climate change and economics.
The Fed, she said, will need to look at how to keep banks and the financial system resilient amid risks from extreme weather, higher temperatures, rising sea levels and other effects of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
And increasingly, she said, “it will be important for the Federal Reserve to take into account the effects of climate change and associated policies in setting monetary policy to achieve our objectives of maximum employment and price stability.”
The Fed is the most powerful entity in the American, and arguably the world, economy.

Vast bush fires rip across Australia, destroying 150 homes and killing 3
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia-pacific/vast-bush-fires-rip-across-australia-destroying-150-homes-and-killing-3/2019/11/10/8680e968-038f-11ea-9518-1e76abc088b6_story.html
Quote
An estimated 350 koalas died when fire swept through their breeding ground near the coastal city of Port Macquarie. Koalas typically breed once a year, and it will be difficult for the population to recover, according to Sue Ashton, president of the local koala hospital. “I don’t know how we are going to come back from this,” she told the television show “Today.”
These wildfires endanger animals as well as trees and humans.

At 2022 World Cup, the global game will meet global warming
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/soccer/at-2022-world-cup-the-global-game-will-meet-global-warming/2019/11/10/bfd348d2-0277-11ea-8501-2a7123a38c58_story.html
Quote
Qatar is hot, baby. And getting hotter.
Temperatures in its capital city, Doha, have risen five degrees since 1962. Earlier this decade, during what can only be described as a particularly unforgiving heat wave, they recorded an all-time high reading of 122.7 degrees.
The average high temperature in Qatar in June and July — when the World Cup is typically played — is 108 degrees; the average low is in the mid-80s.
If twenty players die of heatstroke, whenever they play it there, would that alert the world?

How the U.S. betrayed the Marshall Islands, kindling the next nuclear disaster
https://www.latimes.com/projects/marshall-islands-nuclear-testing-sea-level-rise/
Quote
Here in the Marshall Islands, Runit Dome holds more than 3.1 million cubic feet — or 35 Olympic-sized swimming pools — of U.S.-produced radioactive soil and debris, including lethal amounts of plutonium. Nowhere else has the United States saddled another country with so much of its nuclear waste, a product of its Cold War atomic testing program.
Between 1946 and 1958, the United States detonated 67 nuclear bombs on, in and above the Marshall Islands — vaporizing whole islands, carving craters into its shallow lagoons and exiling hundreds of people from their homes.
U.S. authorities later cleaned up contaminated soil on Enewetak Atoll, where the United States not only detonated the bulk of its weapons tests but, as The Times has learned, also conducted a dozen biological weapons tests and dumped 130 tons of soil from an irradiated Nevada testing site. It then deposited the atoll’s most lethal debris and soil into the dome.
Now the concrete coffin, which locals call “the Tomb,” is at risk of collapsing from rising seas and other effects of climate change. Tides are creeping up its sides, advancing higher every year as distant glaciers melt and ocean waters rise.
This is one consequence of sea level rise I did not think of.

As the ice disappears, climate change is coming for the emperor penguin
https://www.fastcompany.com/90428384/as-the-ice-disappears-climate-change-is-coming-for-the-emperor-penguin
Quote
Our newly published study found that if climate change continues at its current rate, emperor penguins could virtually disappear by the year 2100 due to loss of Antarctic sea ice. However, a more aggressive global climate policy can halt the penguins’ march to extinction.
Chilly Willy is in trouble.

Climate events have cost the US economy more than $500 billion over the last 5 years, Fed official says
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/climate-change-impact-on-economy-has-cost-500-billion-fed-2019-11-1028675379
Quote
Climate- and weather-related events have directly cost the US more than $500 billion over the past five years, according to a Federal Reserve official.
In addition to causing damage to natural resource and infrastructure, global warming is expected to disrupt business operations and economic activity in the coming years.
In January, top economists from both sides of the aisle signed a letter that said climate change was "a serious problem calling for immediate national action."
That's over $1500.00 per citizen. What could you do with that kind of money?

The causes of unprecedented bushfires are complex but climate change is part of the puzzle
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-12/cause-of-bushfires-is-complex-but-climate-change-is-part-of-it/11692176
Quote
The deterioration of fire weather patterns, apparent around the globe, closely matches the prediction of climate change analysts.
There is good reason to understand our current situation as an intellectual transition from the stage of "what climate models tell us about the possible effects of climate change on bushfires", to "observing and experiencing extreme, unusual, and ecologically and economically damaging bushfires driven by anomalous climate conditions".
I didn't think I would live to see that transition.

As the climate changes, architects and engineers need to design buildings differently
https://www.mic.com/p/as-the-climate-changes-architects-engineers-need-to-design-buildings-differently-19313332
Quote
As Earth’s climate changes, the frequency, intensity and duration of these extreme weather events is expected to increase. At the University at Buffalo, I lead a laboratory that studies climate change and buildings. Our research shows that the U.S. building stock may not be prepared for future climate-related storms and flooding.
That';s good for future buildings, but what about the ones we already have?

California is one of many places wrestling with its climate change future
https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/natural-disasters/468785-california-is-one-of-many-places-wrestling-with
Quote
Over the past few weeks, wildfires in California have captured national attention.
This led some to say California is becoming unlivable, but the question of livability doesn’t just apply to the Golden State.
For example, communities around the globe are grappling with sea-level rise and other climate impacts.
What is Ohio doing? What is your community doing?

WHY CLIMATE CHANGE IS A WINNING ISSUE IN LANDLOCKED IOWA
https://www.ozy.com/acumen/why-climate-change-is-a-winning-issue-in-landlocked-iowa/230550/
Quote
That reality has led to the Democratic candidates campaigning directly to the weather-related concerns of Iowans in the critical first caucus state. Bernie Sanders recently moved to refocus his Iowa strategy around climate change, furthering a $1.3 million Iowa ad buy with a television spot about the Green New Deal and campaigning with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Des Moines to talk about the $16 trillion climate-focused stimulus plan.
We'll find out if this is a political consequence of AGW in the next twelve months.


BONUS:
Banking giant HSBC gives shocking warning of US$10 trillion a year climate health bill
https://reneweconomy.com.au/banking-giant-hsbc-gives-shocking-warning-of-us10-trillion-a-year-climate-health-bill-76138/
Quote
Major global bank HSBC has issued a shocking assessment of a world impacted by climate change, predicting the health costs of the world’s fastest-growing economies could reach almost US$10 trillion (A$14.5 trillion) a year by 2050.
In a paper titled ‘Future cities: global warming and the risks to health’, HSBC Global Research predicts climate change will contribute to a five-fold increase in the cost of public health, as higher temperatures drive increases in the risk of heatstroke, dehydration and respiratory problems, as well as turbo-charging the growth of some diseases and illness.
The report focused on cities across the 11 members of the G20 considered ’emerging markets’. These are countries with the fastest-growing economies, including China, Brazil, India, South Korea and Indonesia, where climate impacts and rapidly changing demographics will lead to dramatic escalations in health costs.
This is not over 30 years, this is per year. Now that's real money.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 17, 2019, 08:13:17 PM
You know, I get just about all my links from Daily Climate:
https://www.dailyclimate.org/
I mentioned this before, but thought it good to post here for people who follow this thread and not the other. Since I will have to stop after a couple months or so because of my pilgrimage. and since this takes up so much time, I might as well do it now.
EDIT 2: The thing I liked about my old way of posting was that I was segregating the links by topic. If you were interested in heatwaves, for example, that was where you would find pertinent links. But now using just one thread is redundant with Daily Climate.
Thank you.
EDIT: But here is a video I just found somewhere else -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0YssYbZ-EhU
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: sidd on November 17, 2019, 10:27:56 PM
Lapham at his quarterly: the piper will be paid

"Nature doesn’t take checks. Who then pays the piper—does capitalism survive climate change, or does a changed climate put an end to capitalism?"

"The carbon in the biosphere is the weapon of mass destruction"

"finding it easier to imagine the end of the world than to conceive of an end to capitalism."

"The global consumer market is an universal wolf. Left to its Neolithic instincts, it must perforce eat up itself, devour and destroy the human race. Not with malice aforethought or for reasons ideological, but because it is a machine, and like all machines, among them the atomic bomb and Facebook, knows not what else to do."

"Losing sight of ourselves as human beings, we look to machines to tell us who and why and what we are, what to do and where to go, what to eat and buy and think, when to cry, how and at whom to laugh."

"The only power on earth capable of saving the human race is human, the means of doing so the learning that we are one with nature, not superior to or separate from."

https://www.laphamsquarterly.org/climate/paying-piper

sidd
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 18, 2019, 05:51:38 AM
<snip>
"The only power on earth capable of saving the human race is human, the means of doing so the learning that we are one with nature, not superior to or separate from."

Thank you very much sidd.

The ultimate answer!
No supremacy over other lifeforms :) :). No supremacy over other humans. No supremacy!
(supremacy->insanity->destruction)
Civilisation culture is fundamentally wrong. The premise of supremacy over living nature is fundamentally wrong.
Civilisation is not the 'winner', it is the all-destructive transgression; the ultimate 'sin' if you want.
The other fundamentally wrong pillar of civilisation is the concept of family and fathers, and humans as predators.

For example, sitting on a horse, having a pet animal or mowing the grass are evil actions (i.e. very low morality)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 18, 2019, 01:27:27 PM
Is using antibacterial soap or mouthwash evil (low morality)?
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: kassy on November 18, 2019, 04:09:22 PM
It is totally useless for the handsoap not sure about the mouthwash.

https://www.fda.gov/consumers/consumer-updates/antibacterial-soap-you-can-skip-it-use-plain-soap-and-water

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 18, 2019, 06:02:01 PM
Yes Tom. If it is technology (soap) that's outside living nature and if it kills other lifeforms (not for food) then it is low morality.

What I wrote is the view from reality and long term thinking. I have been riding horses myself. Most part of my life was in civilisation. I don't give judgement on people from civilisation today who perform those kinds of low morality actions. I have done it myself. Now I know better. It is not the people doing what's 'normal' in civilisation, I blame the civilisation culture itself.
We have been told/advised that our systems must change. I very much understand why. The last sentence of sidd's great  post reminded me of the view from reality and the ill of all supremacy.

I have thought a lot about the very long term and the relation between humans and living nature. What's long term 'sustainable' = being part of living nature. No supremacy. No technology beyond stone age. No ovens  :o.

This is my view and results of my research. I'm not a gambler. I am someone who understates.
I live by my own high morality in my actions and life path (if possible in current society). That path is a small, tough and lonely one. Remember, I chose to be poor. I could easily have been very rich if had prioritized material wealth.

Stone age technology will likely be the remaining techology level, 20-30 years after global economic and infrastructure collapse. If there is still an ecosystem left. If there are still humans left..
In this final context I want to thank Terry again for his great post in the Renewable Energy thread. He has a way with words that I lack  :-\:)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 18, 2019, 06:25:58 PM
Obviously, nanning, you have access to the Internet.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 18, 2019, 07:31:18 PM
Obviously, nanning, you have access to the Internet.

Quote from: nanning
I live by my own high morality in my actions and life path (if possible in current society).
Emphasis by me.
What do you want me to do more Tom? Is there any relation with your own actions and life? A mirror is missing ;).
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 18, 2019, 08:33:07 PM
Quote
What do you want me to do more ...?
Maybe be a hermit on some mountaintop leaving us alone  ;D ;) :P ::)
Then I could feel guiltless about dreaming of having a Tesla Model 3 (or X or Semi).  Because of you (well, not just you, but you get the idea),
Speaking of which, I'll be attending a workshop on "How We Win (https://www.mhpbooks.com/books/how-we-win/)" by peace and social justice activist George Lakey (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Lakey).  I first learned of him through the Movement for a New Society (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Movement_for_a_New_Society) (subsequently participating in a weekend training in 1979).
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 18, 2019, 09:19:30 PM
It's possible, even in current society, to live without the internet.
I did it for four decades. I would not like to do it again, but if I thought it would reduce abortion in the country, I would.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on November 19, 2019, 12:47:29 PM
nanning
Thanks for the kind words, but I don't understand your definitions of immorality. Our last two cats had been rescued by my wife when their mother abandoned them beside our pool.
Both were very sick and required ridiculously expensive veterinary services, then feedings of kitten formula by eyedropper for a few weeks.
They lived well into their late teens, then died after another round of expensive vet services. They were unusual in that they never learned to meow. Their needs were met when we heard one of them murmur imploringly.
I like to believe that they each lead a happy, carefree existence. Neither was ever in a fight, neither ever missed a meal, was disciplined, or had any bad health until the end was near.


How this act of kindness could be misconstrued as an act somehow lacking in morality escapes me.


Tor
Did you ever read Maugham's 'The Razor's Edge'? One of the strong themes is that religious studies, even retreating to a frigid Himalayan Peak to seek enlightenment is all an exercise in futility.
The secret is that there is no secret.


Once that's clear, you're freed to follow the mandates of your own conscience without living in guilt, instructing others in their spirituality, or acting in the expectation of reward.


Somerset's works been wonderful companions. Everything he wrote deserves at least two reads.
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 19, 2019, 03:06:25 PM
...
Tor
Did you ever read Maugham's 'The Razor's Edge'? One of the strong themes is that religious studies, even retreating to a frigid Himalayan Peak to seek enlightenment is all an exercise in futility.
The secret is that there is no secret.
...
I haven't read that book.  I went to the Himalayan foot hills not to seek enlightenment, but to practice the lack of secrets, and thoroughly enjoyed my time with Buddhist monks, nuns and practitioners.  (I had the opportunity to hold the (a?) famous yeti skull (probably this one (https://www.atlasobscura.com/places/the-yeti-scalp-of-khumjung-khumjung-nepal)), but declined as I didn't 'believe' in it.  But I did get to view it closely.)

Of course, arguing on these fine threads Neven makes available can be seen as being "all an exercise in futility."
Love you!
 :)
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on November 19, 2019, 03:33:32 PM
Thanks for the kind thought!


I find that the back and forth helps me organise my thoughts and stay abreast of subjects I care about. There's a collegial atmosphere here that's lacking at so many sites. Most have settled into the habit of disagreeing, sometimes strongly, without being disagreeable.


I came for the ice & stayed for the rest. You're all part of the rest.
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 19, 2019, 06:05:35 PM
nanning
Thanks for the kind words, but I don't understand your definitions of immorality. Our last two cats had been rescued by my wife when their mother abandoned them beside our pool.
Both were very sick and required ridiculously expensive veterinary services, then feedings of kitten formula by eyedropper for a few weeks.
They lived well into their late teens, then died after another round of expensive vet services. They were unusual in that they never learned to meow. Their needs were met when we heard one of them murmur imploringly.
I like to believe that they each lead a happy, carefree existence. Neither was ever in a fight, neither ever missed a meal, was disciplined, or had any bad health until the end was near.


How this act of kindness could be misconstrued as an act somehow lacking in morality escapes me.
<snip>

Dear Terry, I think what you did in caring was intended to be high morality. I'll try to explain why I wrote 'intended'.

It is the whole idea of cats, these are predators, in captivity, brainwashed and owned by humans, which is just another lifeform, a prey animal even. Do you think the 'good life' of your cat has any resemblance to a real natural cat that lives a life in living nature?
We civilisation humans don't have cats for food; to eat them. We don't even put them to work like in the old days catching mice. They are just for fun. Decoration.

It is nice and I appreciate your good intention that you cared for the cats but that caring action in reality, in living nature would not be possible. Only through our supremacy and technology.

This post is meant to be clarifying and friendly  :).
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: sidd on November 19, 2019, 10:20:59 PM
"We don't even put them to work like in the old days catching mice. They are just for fun. Decoration."

Mmmm. Who is we ?

If the barn cats i am looking at right now through the window could read, and cared much what humans think, they might be offended. They hang about around the barns, roam far and wide in the neighbourhood,  get fed at every farmhouse in the vicinity and occasionally die from predation or accident.

If you have any sorta grain storage, mice appear. And shortly thereafter, cats.

sidd
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on November 19, 2019, 11:20:54 PM
House cats are symbiotic species with humans. We evolved together. We affected their evolution and they affected ours. The same for dogs, cows, sheep, and horses. There is nothing immoral about riding a horse or training a dog to do any job you can train them to do. That's just life.

Then there is food. I know it as a fact that most well-treated cows are more than willing to exchange milk for food, water, and safety. That was bred into them.

 I still struggle with the bull who will enjoy some good years of worry-free living to end up in a slaughterhouse. It is their purpose in life to serve as food for humans, just like zebras are food for lions, cheetas and eventually worms and microbes. And frankly, I like how they taste. So I try not to dwell too much on this question...
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: sidd on November 20, 2019, 05:25:21 AM
House pets are prisoners. I feel sad to see cats and dogs penned up in houses looking out of windows, allowed out under supervision for small parts of the day. For cats, sometimes never.

That said, i agree that dogs have co evolved forawhile with humans. Cats, much less so.

sidd
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on November 20, 2019, 08:01:56 AM
Thanks sidd, for that voice of reason and morality.

The supremacy is strong here.

Reflecting the 'normal' from civilisation culture. Ye all can't help it I guess. It requires a leap of the mind to break through the safetyglass of the cultural bubble and see humans as just.another.lifeform. Nothing higher or better.

What we see as immoral and normal is a baked-in tradition. That means there has been no thinking! We (civilisation) have always done it like this so it must be absolutely correct and the only possible way.
What's seen as immoral by civilisation has not much to do with my morality theory, even though the words share some syllables. But Jezus' morality views for example, have a lot to do with my morality theory.
Breeding is also a form of supremacy, overriding and destroying living nature's evolution. By destroying natural selection for those plants and animals. Very low morality.

edit: added Jezus' morality
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on November 20, 2019, 11:13:11 AM
That's ridiculous.

Quote
When humans were predominantly hunters, dogs were of great use, and thus were domesticated long before cats. Cats, on the other hand, only became useful to people when we began to settle down, till the earth and—crucially—store surplus crops. With grain stores came mice, and when the first wild cats wandered into town, the stage was set for what the Science study authors call "one of the more successful 'biological experiments' ever undertaken." The cats were delighted by the abundance of prey in the storehouses; people were delighted by the pest control.

"We think what happened is that the cats sort of domesticated themselves," Carlos Driscoll, one of the study authors, told the Washington Post


Read more: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/a-brief-history-of-house-cats-158390681/#jGHlKbHR0CBwIzZH.99
Give the gift of Smithsonian magazine for only $12! http://bit.ly/1cGUiGv
Follow us: @SmithsonianMag on Twitter


Cats and dogs, together with the rest of the domesticated animals are part of the human species like the bacteria that live on our guts is part of the human species. Cats and dogs without humans evolve into some other species all together and go extinct.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on November 20, 2019, 03:30:43 PM
sidd
It's not often that I disagree with you.
Perhaps house cats that were snatched from the wild react as you've described. My previous felines had all been quite similar to the "barn cats" you've accurately portrayed. My house was a large part of their territory, but they demanded access to all of their domain.


This pair were never exposed to the wild, or even our backyard. They had no knowledge of, nor attraction to anything beyond the bounds of our residence. An open door, even one leading out to an apartment hallway was something to avoid. Windowsills exposed to full sunlight were prefered places of repose, but the cats never displayed more interest in the outdoors than they did to scenes they viewed on television.


They weren't predatory, probably because they'd never observed predation.  A few neighborhood cats in Vegas would come to visit from time to time and neither of our's showed any interest in defending their food. Probably the only "natural" instinct they displayed was in the territorial defence of a favored chair or carpet.
They certainly weren't cats that could have survived on their own at any stage of their existence, and as nanning mentioned their 'purpose' was ornamental, but they also provided and appreciated companionship.
Just as there is much more to human life than being productive, companionship is something that mammals at least require. These animals might not have protected our grainery, but they provided companionship that was as important to us as a rat free grain might be to a farmer.


My wife claims that she was attracted to me in part after meeting my dog. She was not much larger than a good sized cat, but without the excitability that so many dogs of her size display.
She'd also been separated from her mother far too early.
She naturally house broke herself and had never been trained nor expected to do anything but what she wanted to do. The wife had raised a succession of dogs with her previous husband, they were well trained dogs that would follow any number of verbal commands. Carole had never before met a dog that had been allowed to simply be a dog. One that interacted with people without fear or any sense that people needed to be appeased or appealed to, she was her own person, as a dog, and she viewed us as companions, rather than as masters. No alphas to fear, resist, or to acquiesce to.


She too was a wonderful companion that lived a happy life.


If feeding and caring for these companions was immoral, I'm afraid you'll have to live with the knowledge that you've been conversing with an unrepentant sinner. My interactions with these animals certainly increased their longevity, and if the quality of their life was somehow negatively affected they gave no indication that this was so.
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: sidd on November 20, 2019, 09:27:56 PM
" Cats and dogs without humans evolve into some other species"

Do tell. What definition of species are you using ? Is it you contention that after a few generations in the wild, they cannot interbreed with house pets ? If that is the case, how is is possible today to have wolf-dog crossbreeds ? Although gray wolves and domesticated dogs have lived apart for a very long time ...

sidd
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: TerryM on November 21, 2019, 06:12:45 AM
" Cats and dogs without humans evolve into some other species"

Do tell. What definition of species are you using ? Is it you contention that after a few generations in the wild, they cannot interbreed with house pets ? If that is the case, how is is possible today to have wolf-dog crossbreeds ? Although gray wolves and domesticated dogs have lived apart for a very long time ...

sidd


AAAWWK
I searched through my posts, trying to find what context I might have used that phrase in. Thank god I don't need to defend that one! :P


FWIW I'm particularly enamored of the Wolf-Coyote breed that's becoming more prevalent here. Barking is OK, but plaintive howlings warbling through an otherwise silent night are one of the great joys of life.
Terry
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on November 21, 2019, 11:28:33 AM
 The wolf and the dog are different species and they interbreed. I'm not sure what is your point.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Bernard on November 21, 2019, 12:01:37 PM
House pets are prisoners. I feel sad to see cats and dogs penned up in houses looking out of windows, allowed out under supervision for small parts of the day. For cats, sometimes never.

Well, not all cats live this way. We have a she-cat, or should I say a she-cat is living in our garden. She lives completely outside, we don't let her inside ever, even in the heart of winter with snow and hard freeze (we live in the mountains). We just feed her, she goes wherever she wants, no barriers whatsoever, but she never ventures much further than the street corner. She's 17 and as healthy as can get a cat of this age.
I've known many stray cats, they mostly live in parasits and scavengers of mankind's food, but many of them could survive in the wild if needed. There would be less of them, but much  more healthy than home/pet cats.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Archimid on November 21, 2019, 12:28:22 PM
Stray dogs and cats are often impressive. Stray cats and dogs that are not impressive in some way are rare because most of them die of hunger, disease or run over by a car. Without a human source of constant food, their chances are not good and life is rough. That pressure forces quick selection.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 21, 2019, 02:10:54 PM
Ferrets would not survive in the wild.
They have enough trouble surviving indoors.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2019, 02:20:11 PM
Ferrets would not survive in the wild.
They have enough trouble surviving indoors.
Ferrets have trouble surviving in the wild because man has destroyed most of their natural habitat.

Read on:
https://www.cuteness.com/article/natural-habitat-ferret

European Ferret
The European ferret (Mustela putorius) is found throughout Europe as well as in northern and western Asia and northern Africa. These ferrets are found in forests, meadows, parks, villages, farms and barns. In general, they are located anywhere that their food sources can be found. They feed on mice, rats, small mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians.

Black-Footed Ferret
The black-footed ferret (Mustela nigripes) is found in North America. Black-footed ferrets are highly specialized predators that depend on prairie dogs for both food and shelter.The majority of the black-footed ferret's diet is made up of prairie dogs. The ferrets live in prairie dog towns in underground tunnels.

Topographical Regions
Ferrets live in a variety of habitats, including plains, forests, mountainous regions, deserts, tundra and grasslands.

Dwindling Numbers
Because of the loss of habitat European ferrets have been faced with, the number of ferrets in the wild is dwindling. The black-footed ferret declined almost to extinction at one point and remains threatened. However, they are making a comeback after a population of over 100 ferrets was discovered in Wyoming. The conversion of grasslands to agricultural use and programs that have been put in place to eradicate prairie dogs have reduced the ferret habitat. It is now less than two percent of what it once was.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2019, 02:28:28 PM
" Cats and dogs without humans evolve into some other species"

Do tell. What definition of species are you using ? Is it you contention that after a few generations in the wild, they cannot interbreed with house pets ? If that is the case, how is is possible today to have wolf-dog crossbreeds ? Although gray wolves and domesticated dogs have lived apart for a very long time ...

sidd
The Scottish wildcat is regarded as a separate species of cat. It can and does breed with domestic cats that have gone feral.
____________________________________________________________
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_wildcat
The Scottish wildcat (Felis silvestris silvestris syn. Felis silvestris grampia) is a European wildcat population in Scotland.[1] This population is estimated to comprise between 1,000 and 4,000 individuals, of which about 400 cats are thought to meet the morphological and genetic criteria of a wildcat.[2] The Scottish wildcat population used to be widely distributed across Britain, but has declined drastically since the turn of the 20th century due to habitat loss and persecution. It is now limited to north and east Scotland.[3] It is listed as Endangered in the United Kingdom and is primarily threatened by hybridization with domestic cats.[4] Camera-trapping surveys carried out in the Scottish Highlands between 2010 and 2013 revealed that wildcats live foremost in mixed woodland, whereas feral and domestic cats were photographed mostly in grasslands.[5]
____________________________________________________

However, I do not think the survival or otherwise of domestic pets after "AGW Armageddon" is the worst consequence of AGW. Perhaps I am wrong about that. "ApoCATlypse  now?"
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 21, 2019, 02:29:38 PM
Mustela furo has trouble surviving because of its suicidal curiosity.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 20, 2020, 04:27:54 PM
How climate change is killing Alpine skiing as we know it
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/travel-troubles/118899340/how-climate-change-is-killing-alpine-skiing-as-we-know-it
Quote
Like other resorts at relatively low altitude, global warming has left its mark on Garmisch-Partenkirchen – the site of the 1936 Winter Olympics – putting the town's identity and affluence at risk. It's January and there's so little natural snow that anxiety is building whether upcoming ski races can go ahead.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 20, 2020, 08:35:08 PM
What could be worse than the loss of recreational snow skiing? :o ::) :P ;)

Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2020, 08:43:26 PM
What could be worse than the loss of recreational snow skiing? :o ::) :P ;)
loss of recreational snow-boarding.

Skiing is so last century
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: philopek on January 20, 2020, 10:07:50 PM
What could be worse than the loss of recreational snow skiing? :o ::) :P ;)
loss of recreational snow-boarding.

https://nypost.com/2015/01/23/why-snowboarding-is-fading-in-popularity/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/376710/active-skiers-and-snowboarders-in-the-us/

https://www.denverpost.com/2013/12/26/snowboarding-declining-in-stats-coolness/

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/sports/snowboarding-once-a-high-flying-sport-crashes-to-earth.html

 8)
Skiing is so last century
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: nanning on January 21, 2020, 07:04:44 AM
   Humans risk living in an empty world, warns UN biodiversity chief

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/20/humans-risk-living-in-an-empty-world-warns-un-biodiversity-chief-aoe
  by Patrick Greenfield


  Excerpts:
Humanity will have given up on planet Earth if world leaders cannot reach an agreement this year to stop the mass extinction of wildlife and destruction of life-supporting ecosystems, the United Nation’s new biodiversity chief has warned.

Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, the acting executive secretary of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, has implored governments to ensure 2020 is not just another “year of conferences” on the ongoing ecological destruction of the planet, urging countries to take definitive action on deforestation, pollution and the climate crisis.


The ongoing destruction of life-supporting ecosystems such as coral reefs and rainforests means humans risk living in an “empty world” with “catastrophic” consequences for society

“People’s lives depend on biodiversity in ways that are not always apparent or appreciated. Human health ultimately depends on ecosystem services: the availability of fresh water, fuel, food sources. All these are prerequisites for human health and livelihoods,”

In May last year, the world’s leading scientists warned that nature is disappearing at a rate tens to hundreds of times higher than the average for the past 10m years. Experts have previously warned that humans are driving the sixth mass extinction event in Earth’s history, cautioning there is a short time to act.


The commitments in the draft text, which is expected to be adopted by governments in October at a crucial UN summit in the Chinese city of Kunming, have been kept intentionally modest


it means the global community will have said: let biodiversity loss continue, let people continue to die, let the degradation continue, deforestation continue, pollution continue, and we’ll have given up as an international community to save the planet.


“Our children are asking what climate are they going to inherit from us if the planet they are seeing is polluted. The ocean they are seeing is full of plastic, the forest they are told to be seeing becomes bare land, the consumption patterns are leading to more pollution.
Title: Re: Worst consequence of AGW
Post by: gerontocrat on January 21, 2020, 12:38:14 PM
What could be worse than the loss of recreational snow skiing? :o ::) :P ;)
loss of recreational snow-boarding.

https://nypost.com/2015/01/23/why-snowboarding-is-fading-in-popularity/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/376710/active-skiers-and-snowboarders-in-the-us/

https://www.denverpost.com/2013/12/26/snowboarding-declining-in-stats-coolness/

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/07/sports/snowboarding-once-a-high-flying-sport-crashes-to-earth.html

 8)
Skiing is so last century
Just proves humanity is going backwards.