Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Jim Hunt on June 16, 2019, 11:09:30 AM

Title: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 16, 2019, 11:09:30 AM
Here are the alternative routes:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=123360;image)

Here is the current state of play (http://greatwhitecon.info/2019/05/the-northwest-passage-in-2019/#Jun-15) along "Amundsen's Route" (route 4):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=123356;image)

"Small vessels" usually take routes 5 or 6 in this day and age.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: be cause on June 16, 2019, 11:15:15 AM
  yay .. I've got 50% of the vote ! :) b.c.

 more seriously , I opted for early September as I feel the garlic press may be busy for some weeks before the 'all clear' is posted . It may well be the last ice in the arctic by then ...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 16, 2019, 11:20:14 AM
The link is now broken, but once upon a time there was a Canadian Ice Service document that stated their definition of "open" to be <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route.

I'll see if I can track it down again.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 11:33:47 AM
My bet is on route 1, July 15 - 31.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on June 16, 2019, 11:54:58 AM
Clueless, but went for Aug 15th-31st. At least I'm with the majority!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Stephan on June 16, 2019, 02:27:51 PM
Route #7 should be open late August 2019 - that is my guess
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 02:53:12 PM
Clueless, but went for Aug 15th-31st. At least I'm with the majority!

Chose a route Oren, B.C., Jim.  :D
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: johnm33 on June 16, 2019, 02:58:43 PM
"My bet is on route 1, July 15 - 31."
snap, ever the pessimist
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on June 16, 2019, 03:16:06 PM
Clueless, maybe routes 5/6.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 16, 2019, 03:19:58 PM

Chose a route Jim.  :D

I've gone for Route 5 August H2.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Avalonian on June 16, 2019, 03:24:01 PM
Route 6, 27th August.  8)

But, yeah - clueless really.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: crandles on June 16, 2019, 03:39:55 PM
Route 4, Aug 14th
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 03:59:29 PM
snap, ever the pessimist

Haha, i hope it's too pessimistic. ;)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 16, 2019, 04:56:13 PM
Kayaking by route 7 eastwards should become available rather quickly, granted you have to drift with the ice through the last channels but anyway. I'll allow a small outboard motor to help fulfilling the class 'small vessel'

Come to think of it, is there a club for people who have kayaked in meltpools?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: be cause on June 16, 2019, 05:13:28 PM
I'll go for route 66 until further notice .. :) b.c.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 16, 2019, 05:27:01 PM
Cannot compute. Route unavailable.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: interstitial on June 16, 2019, 05:47:49 PM
Hey I want to change my vote.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 16, 2019, 06:22:59 PM
Some background data - maps

1. Geography,
2. Bathymetry.

Will the US Secretary of the Navy carry out his promise to pollute the NW Passage with his presence this summer ?

To do so he will need a big boat 'cos he is a big-shot and so will need the Parry Channel open - unless PUTIN sends some icebreakers to do it for him if nature is unwilling.  At the moment the Parry Channel is solid with ice (image from JASMES site using JAXA MSR2 data attached). This is in contrast with many other parts of the CAA.

Question
The Parry Channel is pretty deep apart from a 100 metre or so bit where the channel narrows in the Barrow Strait. Do we know id there are any sub-surface currents flowing (in either direction) through it?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: johnm33 on June 16, 2019, 06:25:37 PM
Hycoms current thickness gif
(https://media.giphy.com/media/Jnw5dc0GjCrHLEGF3O/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 16, 2019, 06:33:35 PM
ps: If you fancy having a go for yourselves you may wish to consult

The International Code for Ships Operating in Polar Waters
The Code acknowledges that polar water operation may impose additional demands
on ships, their systems and operation beyond the existing requirements of the International
Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea (SOLAS), 1974, the International Convention for the
Prevention of Pollution from Ships, 1973, as modified by the Protocol of 1978 relating thereto
as amended by the 1997 Protocol, and other relevant binding IMO instruments.

http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/polar/Documents/POLAR%20CODE%20TEXT%20AS%20ADOPTED.pdf

Pesky bureaucrats - enemies of the people!!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 16, 2019, 11:05:39 PM
Can someone post the dates the NW Passage opened in recent years?  It didn't open at all in 2018, IIRC.

Edit:  see this post by NACK (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,530.msg209453.html#msg209453) for a 'complete' link of passages.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Juan C. García on June 17, 2019, 06:13:31 PM
Clueless, but went for Aug 15th-31st. At least I'm with the majority!
+1 (I first vote and then saw the comments, that is, I didn't copy to vote with the majority  ;) ).
The true is that I am not sure that it will be open this year.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2019, 08:41:46 PM
Can the ability to change vote be added?

I voted Aug 1 to 15 thinking about the Parry Channel. Mostly still pretty solidly blocked.
Now I am thinking about small vessels able to creep along close to the Canadian shore. Ice looking much less solid - July 16 to 31 would be my vote for that.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 17, 2019, 10:44:02 PM
Can someone post the dates the NW Passage opened in recent years?  It didn't open at all in 2018, IIRC.
I did a crude internet search and came up with the following.  I claim neither accuracy nor complete coverage.  Actual dates are sometimes 'when the ship went', rather than when such-and-such map said it was open, so I left the few days-of-month out.  Feel free to improve on this list!

September 2007
August 2008
September 2011
2012
September 2013
September 2015
August 2016
July 2017

Edit:  see this post by NACK (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,530.msg209453.html#msg209453) for a 'complete' link of passages.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Kognsfjorden on June 18, 2019, 03:39:18 PM
Here are some useful links ..

For small boats key timing is the ability to sail through the Bellot Strait and in recent years that seems to have been between August 15 and August 24. The boats that made the passage in 2018 all transited the Bellot strait in a 24 hour window, some had waited many days for that window, and others gave up.

One boat sank (S/V Anahita) due to ice on August 28, 2018 in the Bellot Strait, crew were rescued from an ice floe by a larger commercial vessel.

Vessel list and route, but no dates
https://www.spri.cam.ac.uk/resources/infosheets/northwestpassage.pdf

General information
http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com

http://arcticnorthwestpassage.blogspot.com/2018/12/seven-route-maps-and-list-of-vessels.html
Piloting information
https://rccpf.org.uk/pilots/136/Arctic---Northern-Waters
Guide for yachtsmen
http://80af75c8b1a6023efc9f-6aaa42fda065edd38c8fa3814d416772.r78.cf3.rackcdn.com/136_8054_2019%20Periplus%20to%20Northwest%20Passage%20PF2.pdf

Timings for Polar Bound (MotorBoat - 7 NW Passages - built for the Arctic) in 2016

Depart Julianehab Greenland: 2016.08.17
Crossed the Atlantic Arctic Circle in Foxe Basin: 2016.08.25-0544 hrs.
Transit Labrador Narrows in Fury & Hecla Strait: 2016.08.26-1758 hrs.
Crossed Bellot Strait west: 2016.09.03
Crossed Pt. Barrow Alaska west in 4-6/10 sea ice: 2016.09.20-1700 hrs.
Crossed the Pacific Arctic Circle in Bering Strait: 2016.09.23-1804 hrs.
Arrived Port of Nome Alaska: 2016.09.24
Route-7 West distance navigated: 2,638 nautical miles
Elapsed time enroute Arctic Circle to Arctic Circle: 29 days 12:18 hrs.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 20, 2019, 02:40:53 PM
Route 1 starting to give free its passage (slowly).
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NACK on June 21, 2019, 10:45:13 AM
Can someone post the dates the NW Passage opened in recent years?  It didn't open at all in 2018, IIRC.

Not all that recent but Amundsen entered Peel Sound on August 24th and Ross Strait on August 30th in 1903:

Here's his account of Peel Sound which is very stubborn to lose it's ice even to this day:

"We encountered no ice with the exception of a few narrow strips of old sound ice, carried by the wash. Of large Polar ice we saw absolutely nothing. Between Sherard Head, on Prince of Wales's Land, and Cape Court, on North Somerset, we encountered the first large accumulation of ice. Having the sun in our eyes, we took it, in the mirror-like glitter of the calm sea, to be a compact mass of ice extending from shore to shore. It seemed evident to me that we had now reached the point whence our predecessors had been compelled to return—the border of solid unbroken ice. Happily we were mistaken, as, in fact, we were several times afterwards, under similar circumstances. With the sun right on the glassy surface of a sea with pieces of ice scattered over, these may easily present the appearance of one solid, continuous mass. This optical illusion is also enhanced by the "ice blink" constantly occurring in the Arctic Sea.This ice blink magnifies and exaggerates a small block of ice to such an extent that it looks like an iceberg ;especially when looking at it through a telescope at short range you may easily imagine you are facing a huge ice-pack. But on the Arctic Sea you can never rely on what you fancy you "see," however distinct it may appear. Certainty can only be acquired by actual contact.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 22, 2019, 03:27:23 PM
Can the ability to change vote be added? Looks like no.

June 21 Univ Bremen image and Beaufort + CAA area graphs attached. I guess (heuristically) that it will be the CAA that decides. Note how area loss in the CAA seems to stall for around 3 weeks at this time of year - every year.

I am sure this was discussed last year but I can't remember what the consensus regarding what causes this was.

EDIT Southern end of the Parry Channel opened quite a bit. (Baffin Bay melting out at a rate of knots)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 22, 2019, 04:14:38 PM
Can the ability to change vote be added? Looks like no.

I can edit some of the poll parameters, but not that one for some reason.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 22, 2019, 04:36:41 PM
Can the ability to change vote be added? Looks like no.

I can edit some of the poll parameters, but not that one for some reason.
I think Neven has fixed this (or told the thread owner how to it) on another poll.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on June 22, 2019, 06:16:52 PM
This fix is always done only by Neven.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 28, 2019, 05:06:25 PM
Since it's a hot topic for some reason now, let me share the disputed forecast here too.

Looks good for route 1, no?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 28, 2019, 06:59:43 PM
Just to be a bit snarky, might one interpret the poll's question, «When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?», to include small aircraft (probably with extended tanks)?

And because it doesn't ask when they do do it, I'll conjecture a bush pilot using the pilotage method of navigation under VFR (Visual Flight Rules) could do it in late February.  ;D

NW passage length (https://www.thoughtco.com/northwest-passage-overview-1435556):  900 miles (1450 km)
How far and fast can a small airplane go (https://www.quora.com/How-far-can-a-single-engine-airplane-fly): ~150 mph (240 km/hr) x 6 hours = passage length
When does the NW Passage first have 6 hours of daylight (https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/canada/resolute):  at Resolute Bay's latitude, February 18, 2019.

Note: I once traveled in a two-seater (home fabricated) plane that went over 200 mph (320 km/h), but I don't know if it had tanks for 4.5 hours of flight.  If it did, it could do the NW Passage using VFR as early as February 12.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on June 28, 2019, 07:02:41 PM
July 16-31.
Before August would it be a precedent?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on June 28, 2019, 08:28:54 PM
Worldview aqua modis, lancaster sound, jun26-28 https://go.nasa.gov/2X8zJBd
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 28, 2019, 09:38:29 PM
Might one interpret the poll's question, «When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?», to include small aircraft (probably with extended tanks)?

Nope. Not even in American English! https://dictionary.cambridge.org/dictionary/english/vessel
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on June 29, 2019, 11:11:40 PM
........
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 30, 2019, 02:46:32 AM
Drat.  But wait (https://www.thefreedictionary.com/vessel) ...
Quote
ves·sel  (vĕs′əl)
n.
1. A hollow utensil, such as a cup, vase, or pitcher, used as a container, especially for liquids.
2.
a. Nautical A craft, especially one larger than a rowboat, designed to navigate on water.
b. An airship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airship).

So not an airplane.  As an aside, I think dirigibles could be used to transport windmill parts to remote locations.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 30, 2019, 10:34:06 AM
I've brought my set of Canadian Arctic Archipelago animations up to date:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-regional-graphs/northwest-passage/#Videos

Here's the one from 2015, when route 1 was wide open for a while:

https://youtu.be/nWXvIYcdGWM
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 01, 2019, 12:44:16 AM
Worldview, Mclure Strait https://go.nasa.gov/2Xb6ayZ
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: charles_oil on July 01, 2019, 07:09:25 AM

Jim - it would be handy if the year was visible in a slightly shorter chart title - thanks.   Great illustrations BTW


May be my screen resolution but prior to clicking I just get: 
"The Main Northwest Passage Opens in Summer 2"
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 02, 2019, 12:33:45 PM
There was I thinking that the growing SSTs in Baffin Bay might significantly impact melt in, e.g. the Parry Channel. But now it looks probably only a little bit?

Because I read (1) that the top 200 metres of the Beaufort Sea is relatively fresh compared with that in Baffin Bay and that the Beaufort sea level is about 0.3 metres higher than Baffin bay so flow is from the Beaufort to the Baffin.

In that paper from 2012 I also see a diagram showing modelled September ice extent and flows.
The Beaufort and CAA are assumed to be pretty much still full up ice. Is the model still valid?

Then I read (2)
Quote
5. Driving Mechanisms of Volume Flow Through
the CAA
5.1. The Role of Sea Surface Height

[39] The SSH difference between the Arctic Ocean and
Baffin Bay (Figure 7b) not only leads to a net outflow from
the Arctic Ocean, its variability also drives the variation of
the CAA throughflow. Annual mean volume transports
though Lancaster Sound and Nares Strait are significantly
correlated with the along strait SSH gradients
and that is just the first few words that a long time later end up with....
Quote
The variability of the CAA transports is related to the large-scale atmospheric forcing pattern characterized by the NAO. Responses to the positive and negative phases of the NAO can be observed both in the Beaufort Sea and in the Labrador Sea. In the positive NAO phase, the atmospheric circulation over the western Arctic Ocean is mainly in the cyclonic phase [see, e.g., Proshutinsky et al., 2002], leading to a loss in the freshwater storage in the Beaufort Gyre and an increase in SSH along the American coast, and thus increased volume transport through Lancaster Sound. In the Labrador Sea the strong cooling during the NAO positive phase results in low sea level, which propagates northward along the west Greenland coast and leads to higher
transports through Nares Strait and Lancaster Sound.

Conclusion:-
I have not a clue as to the comparative importance of melting in situ and transport by currents has in opening up the NW Passage in the CAA.

I have not a clue as to whether the current state of the NAO is increasing flows through the CAA

It was an interesting read but beyond my pay grade, and gives me not a clue as to when the NW Passage will open. Ho hum.
_____________________________________________________________
(1) https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07055900.2012.704348
Flow Constraints on Pathways through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago July 2012

(2) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/jgrc.20330
The Canadian Arctic Archipelago throughflow in a multiresolution
global model : Model assessment and the driving mechanism of
interannual variability July 2013
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 02, 2019, 05:15:26 PM
The Baffin Bay side. 
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 03, 2019, 04:05:09 PM
The CAA is doing what it does at this time every year. Stalling.
I wonder what causes it.

So my bet is the Northern (Russian) Route opens first.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 03, 2019, 04:11:28 PM
The CAA is doing what it does at this time every year. Stalling.
I wonder what causes it.

So my bet is the Northern (Russian) Route opens first.

The CAA is unique. Little chance of ice import unless the garlic press opens for business and little chance of dispersion as well. This repetitive slowing must be related to the geography. A good question. Any ideas everyone?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 03, 2019, 04:26:20 PM
I think the relatively exposed Amundsen Gulf and Lancaster Sound regularly open up 'early' and then 'nothing happens' for a while (extent-change-wise)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 03, 2019, 04:49:41 PM
I think the relatively exposed Amundsen Gulf and Lancaster Sound regularly open up 'early' and then 'nothing happens' for a while (extent-change-wise)
It is warm in the CAA. How long before extent-change-wise wakes up?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: magnamentis on July 03, 2019, 05:20:31 PM
looking at AMSR2 concentration maps, the change from 30th of June to 2nd of July was whopping and eye-catching.

Extent my stall but things are in the works and in around 2-3 weeks it will become obvious, even extent wise while extent itself in those narrow straits and fjords is quite small anyways.

compare the Uni-Bremen Concentration Images published yesterday for the 1st of July and the one published 1 or 2 days before for the end of june and you gonna see what i mean.


https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 03, 2019, 11:28:37 PM
Worldview aqua modis, lancaster sound/somerset, jul1-3.
Note the start of open water nth of somerset. Perhaps the area stall is due to ice breaking up but taking a while to exit the channels.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: binntho on July 04, 2019, 07:52:00 AM
With all the clear skies over the CAA over the last few days, I've noticed a series of polynya in the Barrow strait (the central and relatively shallow part of the Barry channel).

In the image I've circled 11 distinct small polynya that have been opening up these last few days. They are all very small but I'm not seeing anything similar elsewhere in the CAA. The location of the Polynya is suggestive of them being caused by currents, i.e. they are almost all around a promontory or cape along the shoreline.

I've not been able to find any good bathymetry maps of the area other than what has already been published here in the forum, and those maps do not give any clear indication of what might be causing this.

I've tried marking as many islands as I could discover the names of. The small hamlet of Nunavut / Resolute  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resolute,_Nunavut)is just off screen, but I've helpfully put in an arrow.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: RikW on July 04, 2019, 09:04:00 AM
When looking at worldview I don't think it is looking good for the ice, especially because I doubt there will be a lot of import of ice from the arctic into the CAA, i've never seen such a large ice-free gap between the CAA and the arctic ocean early july, so when the ice is gone in the CAA it is really gone, there will be almost no import of ice.

I voted 16-30 july when it can be passed and I fear almost all routes are possible in a couple of weeks.

I even more fear for the next melting season. Imagine the CAA being 90%+ ice-free for more than a month with most ice non-glaciers/ice-caps on the islands almost gone for several weeks with almost no import of older ice.

I hope I'm too pessimistic
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 04, 2019, 09:16:07 PM
Looking at worldview today combined with mercator 34m salinity (some cherry picking) and taking into account the longer than normal open water north of caa, could there be a new route?
edit:Larger fractures north of somerset suggest not but this year is quite different.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 04, 2019, 09:28:33 PM
Ah, good that you mention it Uniquorn.

Since any other route than route 1 has a left turn, i consider turning right from route 1 also route 1. That's fine, right?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 04, 2019, 09:45:05 PM
One of the few times when left has the advantage ;) btw I'm not voting. As you have seen previously, I lose all sense of objectivity.
edit: well, at least in humour....vbc poll https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2667.msg198822.html#msg198822
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 04, 2019, 09:48:56 PM
Wat? I've seen nothing of the sort.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: magnamentis on July 04, 2019, 11:05:15 PM
what's the definition of "small" ?

i think with some very small boat it's already possible, i.e. with a kayak ?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 04, 2019, 11:47:34 PM
Alas, we're held to dictionary definitions (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2759.msg209374.html#msg209374).  "bigger than a rowboat" (see post a couple above the link for this being a 'rule')

But Mag, we think alike!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: magnamentis on July 05, 2019, 03:39:49 AM
Alas, we're held to dictionary definitions (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2759.msg209374.html#msg209374).  "bigger than a rowboat" (see post a couple above the link for this being a 'rule')

But Mag, we think alike!

then i opt for a very small rowboat and apply an outboarder haha... just kidding

in serious, i understood, not a row boat or a small inflatable, something whit what one can travel a distance and have meals and sleep..
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 05, 2019, 03:51:50 AM
 :)
 ;) ;)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NACK on July 05, 2019, 12:23:32 PM
The NWP transit along route #1 from Halifax to Nome for example is approximately 5000 miles long, mostly wilderness, with very few places for resupply and only open for a relatively short duration.

It would take at least 6 months of paddling in a conventional kayak (multiple seasons)  and might be possible for someone like Freya Hoffmeister who is currently on a ten-year effort to circumnavigate North America. She won't be taking route #1, that's for sure, but similar conditions exist along all seven routes.

There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: magnamentis on July 05, 2019, 03:01:52 PM
The NWP transit along route #1 from Halifax to Nome for example is approximately 5000 miles long, mostly wilderness, with very few places for resupply and only open for a relatively short duration.

It would take at least 6 months of paddling in a conventional kayak (multiple seasons)  and might be possible for someone like Freya Hoffmeister who is currently on a ten-year effort to circumnavigate North America. She won't be taking route #1, that's for sure, but similar conditions exist along all seven routes.

There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

sorry if you took that serious, probably my fault, i wanted to be funny and forgot the appropriate hint though, you're absolutely correct that the entire passage in a kayak would take at least 2 seasons if feasible at all.

with i nice girl "on depot" somewhere mid-route for the winter, perhaps one day,who knows

 ;) ;) ;) ;) [another bit of fun, i mean the term "on depot" LOL]
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 05, 2019, 04:13:46 PM
There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

The Rêve de Glace team reckon they could have made it through the CAA section of the full Northwest Passage powered only by paddles in any year other than 2013:

https://paddlingmag.com/stories/paddling-the-northwest-passage/

However they did take some shortcuts along rivers rather than through the passage proper.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 05, 2019, 05:19:47 PM
There's no record of a kayak transit of the NWP but I think it is possible in one season if outfitted with sails and outriggers but would require an ice-free passage...

The Rêve de Glace team reckon they could have made it through the CAA section of the full Northwest Passage powered only by paddles in any year other than 2013:

https://paddlingmag.com/stories/paddling-the-northwest-passage/

However they did take some shortcuts along rivers rather than through the passage proper.
Kayak? Bleah.

Travel in style. From only £15,500

https://www.hurtigruten.co.uk/destinations/northwest-passage/in-the-footsteps-of-roald-amundsen/
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: magnamentis on July 05, 2019, 06:12:27 PM
we should try to stick to the original scenario:


a)  from nova scotia is not the same like from illulisat or similar location in greenland

b) a kayak with sails is a sailboat and only the hull looks like a kayak, adding even outriggers it's a trimaran or a katamaran, not a kayak.

really interesting how one make minor alteration to the original so that one can say now or start an argument.

from nova scotia with that wave action (i've lived there 12 years hence can tell) and around newfoundland even more so, it takes so long and is so slow (and dangerous) that it will make the entire thing at least 2-3 months and that needs extremely precise timing to reach the passage while it's open and get out of it while it's still open, but perhaps possible (no sails no outriggers)

a bentley with caterpillars instead of wheels is NOT A CAR, it's a snowmobile or caterpillar etc.

as you see i don't say no or sure, i dunno, but at least if we discuss something in serious we should not alter the specifications, the route etc.

the question was if a kayar to make the entire route from i.e. halifax to nome would make it in one season and i would say no, time is too short. and then there is the question whether we choose the route via satellite images or if we have to define the route beforehand.

getting stuck in the ice in october is a killer, hence one has to decide way before whether it's recommended to continue at the end of august from the last winterproof settlement and where the girl is to the end


Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NACK on July 05, 2019, 06:45:16 PM
The Foxe Basin is quickly melting and the Fury & Heckla Straits are almost open; Route #7 may be the winner this year.

There have only been eight transits of Route #7: a couple of research vessels, a couple of ice hardened cargo ships, an ice breaker, another cargo ship, a sloop and of course Polar Bound.

It is the least traveled route but in my opinion it is the most interesting:
An area with 4 times the polar bears of anywhere else on earth
The largest walrus herd in Canada
Transits of the Fury & Heckla Strait and Bellot Strait
Some of the most pristine areas in the CAA.

It is the shortest route and the most southern so why isn't it used more often.
The ice has been persistent and the strait is seldom open.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: JayW on July 06, 2019, 10:10:01 PM
100 hour loop,, Cornwallis island in the lower right corner.  The tides are doing some work. Pretty sunny as well.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on July 07, 2019, 12:33:57 AM
Simply amazing animation. Until this year I was not aware of the major effect tides have on sea ice.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Kognsfjorden on July 08, 2019, 10:26:31 PM
Tecla is pretty confident they will get through, otherwise their charter schedule in the Pacific will require a few changes ...

https://www.tecla-sailing.com/sailing-schedule-2019/

http://www.tecla-sailing.com/north-west-passage-ilulissat-nome/

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 09, 2019, 01:24:20 PM
The ice near Griffith Island is cracking!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: vox_mundi on July 13, 2019, 06:08:19 PM
Streaming live from the Arctic: the Northwest Passage Project
https://nunatsiaq.com/stories/article/streaming-live-from-the-arctic-the-northwest-passage-project/

A group of American and Canadian scientists are preparing to embark on a two-week research mission through the Northwest Passage.

Members of the Northwest Passage Project will depart from Greenland on Thursday, July 18, aboard the Swedish icebreaker Oden, equipped with the technology to share real-time observations and live broadcasts.

(https://www.arctictoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/northwest-passage-project.jpg)

The expedition’s first stop is Pond Inlet on July 20, when the team will livestream the first interactive broadcast from the Northwest Passage.

Viewers can tune into the live broadcasts from the group’s Facebook page on July 20 at 5 p.m. EST and then again on July 27 at 7 p.m. EST and July 30 at 7 p.m. EST.

From Pond Inlet, the expedition will sail through Lancaster Sound to Barrow Strait, stopping in Resolute. The group will then sail west to Melville Sound and south into Prince Regent Inlet on its way back to Greenland.

The Northwest Passage Project also has filmmaker David Clark aboard, who will produce a documentary on the expedition.

https://northwestpassageproject.org/
http://bit.ly/322hZei
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 07:33:45 PM
Quote
Viewers can tune into the live broadcasts from the group’s Facebook page


Oh no!  :-\

I don't use faceborg. Hope someone with an account will share it here...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: vox_mundi on July 13, 2019, 07:43:00 PM
A Faceborg account is not required. I don't use it either.

Use http://bit.ly/322hZei
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 07:54:48 PM
Thanks, Vox_mundi, but this is not working for me. I've deliberately blocked all FB domains on IP layer.

Since they are spying on all people, no matter if they have an account, this is the only possibility to dodge them.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on July 13, 2019, 08:04:05 PM
Thanks, Vox_mundi, but this is not working for me. I've deliberately blocked all FB domains on IP layer.

Since they are spying on all people, no matter if they have an account, this is the only possibility to dodge them.

You can use this for rare exceptions without exposing or revealing any information about yourself or your machine. No browsing history, no cookies, you name it and you chose by selecting the highest security level.

https://www.torproject.org/download/
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 08:50:48 PM
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 13, 2019, 09:35:36 PM
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)
I regularly get confused when I see statements like this:  I'm an 'idea'? ? ? ???  It doesn't take much research (in this case, reading the previous post) to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 09:40:45 PM
Sure, Philopek, Tor is an idea! Thanks. :)
I regularly get confused when I see statements like this:  I'm an 'idea'???  It doesn't take much research (in this case, reading the previous post) to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o

I always read your name as the god from the Edda.

Odin, Tor and the other Norse Gods
https://en.natmus.dk/historical-knowledge/denmark/prehistoric-period-until-1050-ad/the-late-iron-age/iron-age-gods/odin-tor-and-the-other-norse-gods/
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 10:26:48 PM
It doesn't take much research to remember I'm not the only "Tor" around.   :o
It did not. A selection of Tors.....

hard, difficult; strong; rich

A craggy outcrop of rock on the summit of a hill.

A hill.

Toronto

an implementation of second-generation onion routing.

Plural form of torus.

a tower; a turret

high-pointed hill; a rocky pinnacle

A tor is a large, free-standing residual mass that rises abruptly from the surrounding smooth and gentle slopes of a rounded hill summit or ridge crest. In the South West of England, where the term originated, it is also a word used for the hills themselves – particularly the high points of Dartmoor in Devon and Bodmin Moor in Cornwall.
_____________________________________________________
And finally the one in question

Totally Offgrid Reality.
Used as a gateway to unregulated, free, old school, anarchistic, extremely diverse, at your own risk internet.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 16, 2019, 09:06:08 PM
Polynya west of amund ringnes https://go.nasa.gov/2lOjrR5
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 17, 2019, 09:54:05 PM
A little way north of amund ringnes. Polynya or melt pond?
forgot link: https://go.nasa.gov/2LRRxi2 I think it's polynya.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 18, 2019, 12:25:22 AM
Mclure Strait is probably more relevant over the last two days.
edit: full moon jul16 so maybe tidal
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: be cause on July 18, 2019, 01:15:17 AM
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on July 18, 2019, 02:15:13 AM
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 

You are weird... that's all
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on July 18, 2019, 05:13:39 PM
It is interesting that although I believe this to be an exceptional melting season , only 1 person expects a later ''opening'' than me . b.c.
 

You are weird... that's all

Not being weird means being normal means being average means being mediocre at best uppss...

However that is, all good and outstanding people known from the past were considered weird by the non-comprehending majority which is why to be acclaimed by too many while still alive is a disqualification.

After ones death that may change because there is no more danger to be second to someone.
The ever present human competition neurosis can finally be overcome.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: be cause on July 18, 2019, 05:32:51 PM
Glad to get a diagnosis from the Dr .. and welcome , philopek ..

I guess if the NW passage had IBS it would be open already .. but .. it's constipated atm . b.c.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 18, 2019, 11:11:04 PM
New fractures west of buckingham island  https://go.nasa.gov/2JEW2Lt
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 19, 2019, 05:00:52 PM
I predicted the first half of August (I think).

Still 4 weeks left.
Might be needing every day.

gif plays 3 times and then dies.

Just to keep Tor happy/shut him up (delete as applicable or leave both)

click gif to play and it will never stop
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 19, 2019, 07:06:52 PM
 :)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on July 21, 2019, 03:43:29 PM
Gateshead Island, July 19
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on July 21, 2019, 04:55:18 PM
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on July 21, 2019, 05:29:26 PM
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?

I use b_lumenkraft's trick of custom rendering in Sentinel Hub with the formula:

  return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]

Then I load the image into GIMP, do auto white balance [Colors | Auto | White Balance], then play with the red channel hue until the colors look more natural [Colors | Hue-Saturation..., select Red, adjust Hue slider].
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on July 21, 2019, 06:21:59 PM
Gateshead Island, July 19
May I ask how do you get these wonderful images,  Alphabet Hotel? Is it a special filter on Sentinel 2?

I use b_lumenkraft's trick of custom rendering in Sentinel Hub with the formula:

  return [B8A*2,B03*1,B02*1]

Then I load the image into GIMP, do auto white balance [Colors | Auto | White Balance], then play with the red channel hue until the colors look more natural [Colors | Hue-Saturation..., select Red, adjust Hue slider].
Thanks, I’ll give it a try
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 22, 2019, 12:27:26 AM
There is some open water visible through cloud south of Bathurst, but a lot more breaking up further north towards amund Ringnes.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on July 22, 2019, 12:44:45 AM
CAA is under attack, won't take too long for one or more open routes IMO
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 22, 2019, 01:10:56 PM
Piomas percentage loss from of maximum for CAA.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on July 22, 2019, 07:46:45 PM
Bellot Strait is pretty much open. Looks like the ice broke up and got pushed out the eastern end. Ice is breaking up from the western end of the strait all the way down to Gjoa Haven.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on July 23, 2019, 04:13:10 AM
Where is Jim Hunt?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on July 23, 2019, 04:20:35 AM
Where is Jim Hunt?

He is active. No much posting.  Maybe he is busy...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Kognsfjorden on July 23, 2019, 05:39:08 PM
A few boats on their way.

http://www.ant-arctic-lab.com/tracking-by-isax/

This is a boat planning on sailing single handed, non stop, France - North West Pasage - west coast of Americas - round antarctica - back to France. I wish him luck - a bold plan.

Boats also heading West to East - leading boat waiting at Herschel island.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on July 26, 2019, 11:43:16 PM
Very clear weather, light contrast enhancement. Large to show detail (don't click)
https://go.nasa.gov/2K5tSbr
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on July 27, 2019, 12:04:30 AM
Very clear weather, light contrast enhancement. Large to show detail


Wow, looks more like a debris field. Some rapid melting going on, and a lot of the ice has an unhealthy color. Only one small part of the CAA is holding up.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 03, 2019, 05:20:03 PM
I voted for the first half of August, and for quite some time regretted it.
But now?

- Area loss accelerating day by day, and area now below the 2010's average.
- The temperature anomaly is +ve by quite a bit for the next week or so,
-Only need a little more strong melt tp take a southerly route,
i.e from Baffin Bay up the Parry Channel, take the 1st or 2nd left, and then turn right along the Canadian mainland shore.

It is even possible the main Parry Channel could open later?

So confidence increased - though could be misplaced

Things attached, including a short gif - click to start.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 03, 2019, 05:41:08 PM
I think it will open in about a week.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg218789.html#msg218789
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on August 03, 2019, 05:58:08 PM
It can't open without Jim Hunt declaring it so!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 03, 2019, 05:59:27 PM
Climate Change is Luring Cruise Ships to Sail Risky Arctic Passages
https://qz.com/1679630/climate-change-lures-cruise-ships-to-sail-risky-arctic-passages/

August 1, 2019: On August 27, 2010, in Canadian waters above the Arctic Circle, a cruise ship called the Clipper Adventurer ran aground on a rock no one knew was there. Two hundred passengers and crew had set out on an adventure few tourists have experienced: a journey through the Northwest Passage.

The ship, a 295-foot (90-meter) vessel operated by the travel company Adventure Canada, struck the rock early on a Friday evening. The closest humans were in coastal Kugluktuk, 55 miles away, a mostly Inuit community of about 1,400 people in the Canadian Arctic region of Nunavut. A Canadian icebreaker, surveying waters 500 miles away, changed course to conduct a rescue operation. It arrived on Sunday.

Weather was calm but that’s hardly a given that far north, where storms and extreme conditions can roll in quickly. In the vast Canadian Arctic, fewer than 10% of the waters are charted. As more ships brave the territory—encouraged by passageways thawed by temperatures rising faster than anywhere else on Earth—the likelihood of a dangerous grounding increases.

The Edmonton Sun (https://www.cruiselawnews.com/2010/08/articles/sinking/clipper-adventurer-cruise-ship-runs-aground-in-the-arctic/) interviewed the owner of the tour company who was quoted saying: "we were simply following the chart that we had and right where there wasn’t any indication that there was something in the water, there was this large rock.”  (... Surprise!)

(https://ing.dk/sites/ing/files/styles/large/public/images/48951.jpg?itok=X_4E9IYz)

Canada, which used to expect just a few yacht voyages a year, is now dealing with almost two dozen. Vessels of all kinds—including cargo ships—are on the rise too, and the number of trips taken in Canadian Arctic waters nearly doubled in the last decade.

https://www.theatlas.com/charts/xbKAW0C86

In August 2018, another cruise ship struck a rock, also off the coast of Nunavut. The ship, operated by Canadian cruise company One Ocean Expeditions, was carrying 162 passengers and crew. The rescue operation cost the Canadian armed forces half a million dollars.

Just this March (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg192680.html#msg192680), a cruise ship’s engines broke down off the coast of Norway with more than 1,300 passengers on board. Helicopter rescue teams managed to airlift 500 people off the ship, and it was headed for a collision with rocks while 800 people were still on board, Byers says. By a stroke of luck, the ship’s crew managed to restart the engine before that could happen. But the near-miss signals another problem: “When you talk about large ships, you just can’t get people off in time,” he says.

---------------------

Arctic Cruise Ship Owners Ordered to Pay $469K in Costs for 2010 Grounding
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/cruise-ship-clipper-adventurer-nunavut-judgement-1.3973937

-------------

Other 'groundings': http://www.komar.org/faq/travel/vacation/antarctica/ocean-nova/ 
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 03, 2019, 06:09:17 PM
Where is Jim Hunt anyways? Is the Chukchi surfing too good to make time for posting?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: P-maker on August 03, 2019, 06:45:34 PM
petm,

you are genuinely a pita (pain in the ass). If Jim wants to join in, he will do so. Leave it there. Enjoy the surf, relax, have a good life. Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.

Have a nice weekend

P
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 03, 2019, 06:52:37 PM
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do. Thanks for your meta-wrong comment on not disturbing others by sending a direct and completely uncalled for insult my way. Jerk.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 03, 2019, 06:53:48 PM
petm,

you are genuinely a pita (pain in the ass). If Jim wants to join in, he will do so. Leave it there. Enjoy the surf, relax, have a good life. Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.

Have a nice weekend

P

So much sensitivity about a joke of a reputable person about someone with a renown sense of humor?

Each day I learn here but also each day I'm surprised as to what's walking upright, no wonder we can't build a front against trumpists and the likes because the are united in their love for booze, guns, Pick-Ups. cowboy boots, belts, hats and the likes ;) ;)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 03, 2019, 07:15:06 PM
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do.

I'm also not sorry for missing Jim and expressing it hereby.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 04, 2019, 03:28:16 PM
If this rate of ice decomp continues, three days? Maybe Aug 6th or 7th?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 05, 2019, 03:39:29 PM
Satisfactory progress to a 1st half of August opening continues
- daily area loss remains high, and area now below the 2010's average.
- The temperature anomaly is still +ve by quite a bit for the next week or so,
- Only need a little more strong melt tp open a southerly route,
i.e from Baffin Bay up the Parry Channel, take the 1st or 2nd left, and then turn right along the Canadian mainland shore.
- It is even possible the main Parry Channel could open later?

Things attached, including a short gif.
_______________________________________________
ps Attached is thickness graph to 31 July (PIOMAS volume divided by NSIDC area).
It indicates thickness was declining even when area loss was stalled - i.e. melt was happening.
An illustration of how actual melt can be independent of area and extent measurements?

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on August 06, 2019, 08:16:00 PM
polarview, Prince Gustav Adolf Sea, yesterday. https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on August 06, 2019, 08:23:45 PM
Well I'm sorry that I expressed how I miss Jim Hunt's posts. What a terrible thing to do. Thanks for your meta-wrong comment on not disturbing others by sending a direct and completely uncalled for insult my way. Jerk.
lol
Well said.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on August 06, 2019, 08:27:42 PM
Please don't disturb other people, unless you have something meaningful to say.
... apply this philosophy to yourself.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: be cause on August 06, 2019, 08:29:51 PM
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2759.0;attach=129222;image

 is the CAA ice really averaging only 20cm thick atm vs 1.8m thick in the 2000's ? .. that is amazing ! .. complete melt out should be imminent .. as shocking as losing the CAB . Why was the 2000's graph so different to more recent years ?   b.c.

ps .. thanks Sterks for adding such value to the thread ..
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on August 06, 2019, 08:59:32 PM
Another way of looking at it, percentage of max volume remaining, CAA.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 06, 2019, 09:13:56 PM
Is the CAA ice really averaging only 20cm thick atm vs 1.8m thick in the 2000's ? .. that is amazing ! .. complete melt out should be imminent .. as shocking as losing the CAB . Why was the 2000's graph so different to more recent years ?   b.c.
Looking at the smaller seas these 2000's high measurements are quite common. Beware as maybe there were some problems in those earlier years in the summer measurements in these small seas.

The rule seems to be that the bigger the sea and the greater the volume the more reliable the thickness data is. I am more confident about the 2019 data for the CAA than the 2000's data.

BUT - remember it is an average. Much of the southern part of the CAA is melted out, much of the middle down to 50 % and still some lumps of deep purple on the Bremen image here and there. It only needs one lump towards the eastern end of the Parry Channel to block all routes.  (A small patch of rubbish ice in the Kara/Laptev border blocked the Northern sea route for...ages.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 06, 2019, 09:18:33 PM
Nearly a quarter of the brave souls who voted in this poll were premature in their expectations.  (But God bless 'em for voting; it'll make the others look better!  :o)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 06, 2019, 10:19:31 PM
If the darn clouds would move out of the way, I have a feeling the southern route may be about to open.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Sterks on August 06, 2019, 11:43:15 PM
ps .. thanks Sterks for adding such value to the thread ..
Yeah, one liners, learning from the best  :P
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 07, 2019, 05:41:31 AM
Latest Bremen confirms (despite cloud interference) that the southern route is still clearing fast and very close to opening.

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/aug/Resolute/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190806-v5.4_nic.png)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: binntho on August 07, 2019, 07:13:17 AM
That ice thickness graph is scary!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on August 07, 2019, 07:35:38 AM
I would really like to see someone take the route through the Fury and Hecla Strait this year.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 07, 2019, 11:38:41 AM
It can't open without Jim Hunt declaring it so!

For some strange reason my ears are burning!

The Canadian Ice Service is still showing 9-10 tenths concentration sea ice blocking the way:

https://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod/page2.xhtml?CanID=11090

However it looks as though Randall Reeves expects the way to be clear by the time Moli gets to Bellot Strait.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 07, 2019, 05:27:24 PM
However it looks as though Randall Reeves expects the way to be clear by the time Moli gets to Bellot Strait.

Looks amazing!
http://figure8voyage.com/figure-8-map/
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on August 08, 2019, 12:59:02 AM
Nearly time for itp89 to stretch it's 'legs'  https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148096
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 08, 2019, 06:40:18 AM
Maybe a couple more days...

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/aug/BeaufortArcticArchipelago/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190807-v5.4_nic.png)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on August 08, 2019, 10:51:21 AM
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 08, 2019, 06:54:02 PM
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.

I like your analysis, Oren; maybe because I voted for the 2nd half of August.

Please can someone get out there and push some flows south??
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 08, 2019, 10:20:52 PM
I think the ice to the north will migrate south once the southernmost ice melts, delaying the opening of the passage through Bellot Strait.

I like your analysis, Oren; maybe because I voted for the 2nd half of August.

Please can someone get out there and push some flows south??

For most of the time I can see winds heading from south to north more likely than the other way, therefore i doubt that.

Nevertheless some of the ice appears to be quite a bit of "stubborn" hence second half of August is well possible.

Right now I fear that we shall have a similar race like not too long ago with the opening between beaufort and chucki that was kind of a matter of hours in favor of the later slot.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 08, 2019, 11:45:42 PM

....

Right now I fear that we shall have a similar race like not too long ago with the opening between beaufort and chucki that was kind of a matter of hours in favor of the later slot.

Yes, and I definitely got that one a few hours two early, darn it. Grrr... That little stringer of ice.

Lets hope for the same again :)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 09, 2019, 01:08:43 AM
Bellot Strait doesn't need to open as it looks like you can go around the other way.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 09, 2019, 06:24:47 PM
Only 7 days left for my prediction hat belongs to me to come true.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: AndyW on August 09, 2019, 06:45:18 PM

The Canadian sea ice service bulletins need  to used for this.

To me though it does not matter, because commercial shipping uses the Northern passage and this is more important for a clear passageway.

NW is just for stuck yachts or historically inclined adventurers trying to get through. With 21st C commerce the Northern passage is far more important.

Andy

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 09, 2019, 07:08:28 PM
Only 7 days left for my prediction hat belongs to me to come true.

You gonna make it, 2-4 days out for two routes at least ;)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 10, 2019, 10:41:35 AM
It's open, so far as I'm concerned. Use the slider at Worldview over the last ice there blocking the way and you can see the right side is clear on the 8th and the left side is clear on the 9th, thus, it's open.

You heard it here first! Or didn't!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 10, 2019, 11:11:50 AM
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: crandles on August 10, 2019, 01:48:35 PM
(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png)

routes 3,4 and 7 only having a very short green/yellow blockage to clear. Routes 5 & 7 having an additional very narrow passage that can be avoided by choosing route 3 / 4 / 7.

(I went route 4 on Aug 14 so likely to be just a few days too late?)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 10, 2019, 01:55:06 PM
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

Why use interpretations when you can just look?

It's open. Any self-respecting Arctic-capable ship would get through, and maybe any careful ship, too. Got water, what else do they need?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 10, 2019, 02:02:50 PM
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side, which is why it can be indeed open in reality, but not yet officially.

I assume that this is a place where official declaration count, therefore so be it ;)

I give it another few days max, hoping for a clear sky to verify.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 10, 2019, 06:27:47 PM
CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side, which is why it can be indeed open in real but not yet officially.

An alternative interpretation from the crew of a large "small vessel" currently attempting the Northwest Passage:

Quote
When we got in to the heaviest part, the radar was of little use.  Sea ice stretched out as far as we could see, not as a solid mass but as individual sheets, low and flat, some a few meters long others as large as Rosehearty.  The radar display was jammed with echoes in no discernible order  The location of the ice was forecast correctly on the Canadian ice service chart; the density, however, was not.

http://www.syrosehearty.com/captains-blog/2019/8/9/nanuk
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 10, 2019, 06:46:47 PM
It's open, so far as I'm concerned.

For an alternative interpretation from the CIS see:

Why use interpretations when you can just look?

It's open. Any self-respecting Arctic-capable ship would get through, and maybe any careful ship, too. Got water, what else do they need?
Remind me not to get on a boat if you're the skipper.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 10, 2019, 10:47:13 PM
Not Open

Attached image is per today, not yesterday there is a small ice-bridge as an obstacle that might be gone in day or two
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 11, 2019, 08:07:02 AM
Not Open

Attached image is per today, not yesterday there is a small ice-bridge as an obstacle that might be gone in day or two

Yeah... not so much. (See image. And, the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.)

Gerontocrat said he'd not board a boat I skippered? Fine. I'll board your boat, tho', just so long as you're not the navigator.

;-)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 11, 2019, 10:48:31 AM
Meanwhile the Canadian Ice Service and all the trackable navigators in the vicinity still beg to differ.

There's an area of 7-8 tenths concentration sea ice across Larsen Sound. To add insult to injury the CIS map also now shows Bellot Strait chock a block with 9-10 tenths.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 11, 2019, 03:10:48 PM
Meanwhile the Canadian Ice Service and all the trackable navigators in the vicinity still beg to differ.

There's an area of 7-8 tenths concentration sea ice across Larsen Sound. To add insult to injury the CIS map also now shows Bellot Strait chock a block with 9-10 tenths.

1. I'll take a real picture over someone's drawing, or model or whatever that is, always.

2. 7/8 and 9/10ths means open water exists. Also, a goodly percentage of those tenths are filled with mush.

3. The pixels in even the most zoomed images still cover quite an area. Ships are pretty small in comparison. I'm of the opinion there's really no reason they can't get through with a little caution applied.

I do not begrudge you your willingness to wait for officials to say so, so hopefully you will not begrudge me my willingness to use my own eyes. This has always been my metric and i suspect it always will be because, well, we have pics to look at so have no reason to rely on anyone else's opinion.

Cheers
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on August 11, 2019, 03:17:21 PM
9/10 is not an open passage. The ice is mobile and open water appears and disappears
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 11, 2019, 03:18:47 PM
Go then!!!! Hahaha, you are funny... a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space?? D-K is fully strong in you....
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 11, 2019, 06:02:38 PM
Oren, obviously.

Dr,

First, this "a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space??" makes no sense.

Second, I'm using the same criteria I have for ten years, thank you. Why do we have to accept others' definitions? I've always chosen to think for myself: Follow when it makes sense, go my way when it doesn't. Should I laugh at you for not thinking for yourself?

I did, btw, state in my OP, "...as far as I'm concerned." That should have been caveat enough for anyone. Your derision changes nothing.

Cheers
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 11, 2019, 06:14:45 PM
CIS has a great responsibility and in case of incidents can be at a risk to be sued, hence they have to opt for the 100% safest possible side

Indeed. They should, indeed, be diligent in their duties, and why "which is why it can be indeed open in reality, but not yet officially" is sometimes true.

Quote
I assume that this is a place where official declaration count, therefore so be it

I wasn't aware there was a rule against opinions.

Cheers
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: HapHazard on August 11, 2019, 08:04:47 PM

the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.

Drawing a line through ice /= "no ice". Altho I'd do that route in my trusty kayak, like I did off the coast of Barrow earlier this year.

<= 6/10 concentration along the entire route is the definition for this thread's purposes, BTW:

The link is now broken, but once upon a time there was a Canadian Ice Service document that stated their definition of "open" to be <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route.

I'll see if I can track it down again.

3rd post, by the poll's OP. So Jim is correct, as far as this particular thread/poll goes.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 11, 2019, 08:48:00 PM

the line at the far right should have been drawn through that thinner ice closer to the coastline.

Drawing a line through ice /= "no ice". Altho I'd do that route in my trusty kayak, like I did off the coast of Barrow earlier this year.

<= 6/10 concentration along the entire route is the definition for this thread's purposes, BTW:

The link is now broken, but once upon a time there was a Canadian Ice Service document that stated their definition of "open" to be <= 6/10 concentration along the entire route.

I'll see if I can track it down again.

3rd post, by the poll's OP. So Jim is correct, as far as this particular thread/poll goes.

Your entire post is pointless, you realize? No? I don't think you read my comments keeping in mind the full context.

1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.

2. I never stated even the slightest opposition to the definition you all are choosing to use, and in fact agreed it was wise within the context it was promulgated. I simply do not use it and made that clear. You are just not paying attention, it seems.

3. The line/no ice point was rude.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: HapHazard on August 11, 2019, 09:07:23 PM
Amazing.  ;D
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 12, 2019, 12:12:10 AM
No further comment see for yourself

https://kuroshio.eorc.jaxa.jp/JASMES/daily/polar/data/SIC/201908/GW1AM2_20190811B_IC0300_NP.png
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 12, 2019, 01:49:38 AM
Oy vey... I rest my case...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 12, 2019, 01:58:55 AM
From the Canadian Ice Service: Manual of Ice (https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/weather-manuals-documentation/manice-manual-of-ice/chapter-5.html)

Explanation of egg chart and color coding...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 12, 2019, 02:03:02 AM
(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/Ice_Can/ANIM-CMMBCTCA.gif)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 05:40:15 AM
Looks open now.

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2019/aug/Resolute/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20190810-v5.4_nic.png)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 12, 2019, 09:43:13 AM
Looks open now.

Not according to the Canadian Ice Service it doesn't.

According to the terms of this poll (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2759.msg206102.html#msg206102) Bellot Strait is full of 9/10 "thick first year ice" and the path through Franklin Strait is blocked by 6/10 "old ice" or worse.

Note the "based on" section of the "Stage of Development" map. It makes no mention of MODIS or AMSR2. If you want a second SAR based opinion you could try MASIE:

http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/latest/4km/masie_all_r09_4km.png

That map is of course not based on a 60% concentration threshold.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 12, 2019, 10:13:57 AM
1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.

In which case please confine further off topic "perspectives" to:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg221251.html#msg221251
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 12, 2019, 12:12:35 PM
I will accept Jim Hunt's decision unreservedly unless his decision on the data for the 15th August is that the NW Passage is still not open. After that decision I will post incessantly about how Jim Hunt has got it all WRONG!!**.

(I went for a first half of August opening).

ps: Does the decision hold if the passage opens but after a day or two contrary winds and currents send ice to block it again ?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Phil. on August 12, 2019, 12:42:54 PM
The view from Randall Reeves yacht near Pond Inlet a couple of days ago.
(https://i2.wp.com/figure8voyage.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/IMG_5970.jpg?w=1280)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Peter Ellis on August 12, 2019, 02:37:27 PM
1. Don't care what the definition is bc I do not now, and never have, agreed with it, thus stated I was stating my perspective from my very first post. Ergo, I cannot be wrong within that context. I am not attempting to conform.
(https://i2.wp.com/boffosocko.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/John-Tenniel-Humpty-Dumpty.jpg)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 02:44:20 PM
Not claiming that the terms of this poll are met. Also not saying that I'd take a boat in there today. :) Just saying that this is the first day it has looked open according to the concentration map. At the rate it's changing, I guess it would be open by any criteria within a few days.

Edit: If I understand correctly, the terms of this poll would be met if that large "orange G" block were yellow?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on August 12, 2019, 03:45:25 PM
Not claiming that the terms of this poll are met. Also not saying that I'd take a boat in there today. :) Just saying that this is the first day it has looked open according to the concentration map. At the rate it's changing, I guess it would be open by any criteria within a few days.
Agreed.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 12, 2019, 03:51:00 PM
If I understand correctly, the terms of this poll would be met if that large "orange G" block were yellow?

Correct, albeit not the route via Bellot Strait just at the moment.

CCGS Terry Fox is currently leading MS Bremen south through Peel Sound. Ahead of them both is an adventurous "pleasure craft" that has evidently decided to brave "block G" in the not too distant future! Being a cheapskate non subscriber to Marine Traffic I'm currently unclear about the identity of that "small vessel":

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-95.4/centery:73.7/zoom:8
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 12, 2019, 04:12:36 PM

Jim, oh great thread arbitrator, are you accepting bribes?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 12, 2019, 04:19:45 PM
Are you accepting bribes?

No. However perhaps you should be making the CIS an offer they can't refuse?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 04:37:36 PM
CCGS Terry Fox is currently leading MS Bremen south through Peel Sound. Ahead of them both is an adventurous "pleasure craft" that has evidently decided to brave "block G" in the not too distant future!

The race is on! /watching 0.0
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 05:45:25 PM
The 2 blue boats (Terry Fox & Bremen?) passed the pink one and have made quite a lot of distance (~50 km?). At this rate, they'll be in the "G" uh block in a few hours...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 12, 2019, 05:54:36 PM
Will the people on the 2nd boat rescue the people on the 1st boat when its hull 'opens' due to ice cutting into in?  Or will the blue boat people have to wait for the pink boat people?  Or is everything hunky-dory in the ice-free [enough] CAA?  (Wait, if it's hunky-dory, it won't be ice free … )  :o :-X
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 12, 2019, 06:16:02 PM
Jim is basing his judgement solely on Canadian Ice Service while all-together we've seen many other sources showing different results including the bit in question viewed at on sat-images.

- I think it's not good to rely on a single source, especially when there is a liability bias

- The question was: When will "small vessels" first be able to traverse the Northwest Passage in 2019?

This is not the same question like "when does CIS declare the NWP open

Therefore all the hinted bashing of those who base their opinion on other data but data still, is not justified and helps to streamline content into the direction of a few who claim the right to know what counts and what not.

So next year I suggest that the thread title will be: When does the CIS declare the NWP open or, when does Jim Hunt, based on CIS declare the NWP open.

I was watching 5 different sources, all show open water, only CIS not and if they were not there in person to verify their biased (liability in favour of insurances in case somehting happens) data, there is now reason to favor their drawings over sat-data-based input.

Perhaps many of you are not aware how many laws are and were introduces by the bribed governments of this world to imrove the profit ratio of insurance companies, seat belts, helmets on motorbikes end many many more.

Why do i write this, because of the sarcasm i've seen here and elsewhere towards those with an own opinion, wrong or right, as long as there is no PROOF but only one opinion (drawing) against many ohters (i.e sat data and sat images) such condescending replies are not justified.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 07:05:45 PM
Will the people on the 2nd boat rescue the people on the 1st boat when its hull 'opens' due to ice cutting into in?  Or will the blue boat people have to wait for the pink boat people?  Or is everything hunky-dory in the ice-free [enough] CAA?  (Wait, if it's hunky-dory, it won't be ice free … )  :o :-X

Seems that the 1st boat is a heavy icebreaker, so probably hunky dory (and not necessarily ice free)...

https://www.cruisemapper.com/?imo=8127799
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCGS_Terry_Fox
https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen

Does anyone know of a webcam or other photo source on either of these vessels? Jim?

@philopek No need to be upset. There is a difference between when a small boat can get through and when some specific requirement is met. I don't think anyone's disputing that.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: HapHazard on August 12, 2019, 07:14:45 PM
@philopek

It's just a fun poll, accent on the fun. OP sets the parameters, which keeps it simple, and from there we merely enjoy the ride/developments. Threads like this provide some much-needed (IMO, OFC) levity. IDK why some "Buzz Killington" types like to barge into a thread like this & throw their ego around. (To be clear, I'm not accusing you of any of the above, philopek  :)  )

At any rate, the pink boat is me in my kayak, and I'd have paddled thru already but I ran out of coffee. Currently adrift.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 12, 2019, 09:07:26 PM
Does anyone know of a webcam or other photo source on either of these vessels? Jim?

See: https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position

Ignore the alleged "position" though.

It looks as though some ice has recently been spotted:
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 09:12:05 PM
Thanks! Wish I were on board, looks lovely.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 12, 2019, 10:01:43 PM
Looks cold.  (Yes, I live in Florida.)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 12, 2019, 10:06:28 PM
Looks cold.  (Yes, I live in Florida.)

Everywhere looks cold from Florida.

And dry.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 11:19:00 PM
Cold is lovely! :)

Today's CIS map still shows a narrow band of orange blocking the way.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190812180000_WIS38CT_0010714949.gif)

... which our noble vessels are fast approaching...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 11:54:17 PM
Passed through an icy region recently (near the end of the video):

http://www.hl-cruises.com/fileadmin/webcams/bre/2019_08/2019_08_12.mp4
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 13, 2019, 12:28:25 AM
Regionally clear skies today. Looks clear by satellite. Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

https://go.nasa.gov/33tgBSS

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/4e/Canada_Weed_Flag.svg/500px-Canada_Weed_Flag.svg.png)

 ;D
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: crandles on August 13, 2019, 02:08:41 AM
Speed down to 9 knots from 11 knots earlier. Think they have entered orange area now on 13th UTC.

Biased opinion: Needs an icebreaker for another few hours for my 14th Aug guess  ;) ;D
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 13, 2019, 02:21:19 AM
No Little ice showing on the webcam except for about 1 hour several hours ago (Aug 12 UTC).

https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: ghoti on August 13, 2019, 02:43:29 AM
It appears some other bloggers think the passage opened already:

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2019/08/august-11-and-northwest-passage-is-open.html

Though perhaps they don't read these forums and so they are misinformed.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 13, 2019, 09:09:30 AM
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: HapHazard on August 13, 2019, 11:12:02 AM
I had to turn on "Flight of the Valkyries" while watching that video.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 13, 2019, 11:12:40 AM
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: crandles on August 13, 2019, 12:03:50 PM

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.

Through Hudson / Fox is route 7 which goes through Bellot strait (looks more dodgy) and also where  these ships are going now. So it isn't clearer. Route 3 looks most sensible at the moment, with route 4 possibly just about as clear but longer.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: oren on August 13, 2019, 12:04:33 PM
Not sure what the CIS is smoking...

"Orange G" ?

There is another route through "hudson" (Fox Basin) that has no such ice and i think it's possible to pass there slowly. I've seen small "plastic" [JK] sailboats going through this kind of ice over several days and not an isolated relatively small ice-field.
Even when going through Foxe Basin, one must still cross either Bellot Strait or Peel Sound, so it's back to the same (very temporary) problem.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 13, 2019, 03:10:17 PM
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 13, 2019, 03:42:40 PM
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.
Unless ice area loss stalls
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: philopek on August 13, 2019, 03:50:37 PM
McLure, certainly after the 15th but with a fair chance to open up in a week or two.
Unless ice area loss stalls

Yes, thought it but didn't mention, thought the "fair chance" includes the "perhaps not", the "certainly"  refers to the "earliest 15th, bad English obviously

thanks for putting it right ;)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 13, 2019, 04:01:31 PM
Yep they found a little bit of thin ice here and there, although not in the places the CIS map claims it should be. They're south of PW island now, foggy morning. Still looks lovely!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 13, 2019, 07:55:14 PM
At long last a Sentinel 1 image of the Franklin/Bellot Straits region from earlier today:

https://www.polarview.aq/arctic
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 13, 2019, 10:19:09 PM
Nice. There's the bits of ice they passed through.

Now parting ways?

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190813180000_WIS38CT_0010716499.gif)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 14, 2019, 02:25:08 AM
Yep, the MS Bremen is on her own now.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 14, 2019, 11:59:31 AM
Cross posting from the main NW Passage thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg221973.html#msg221973), a "small vessel" has successfully made it into Franklin Strait:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=762.0;attach=130147;image)

This evening's CIS map should be interesting!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: AmbiValent on August 14, 2019, 12:10:37 PM
Go then!!!! Hahaha, you are funny... a real picture with a resolution of a boat ??? From space?? D-K is fully strong in you....
Ummm... are you aware that on pictures from satellites you don't just see cars which are smaller than boats, you can even see the thinner markings separating parking spaces?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: uniquorn on August 14, 2019, 12:15:48 PM
itp89 on the move again https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=148096
Last position on 2019/8/14 16 UTC : 72.7984° N, 108.451° W
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 14, 2019, 12:31:37 PM
Ummm... are you aware that on pictures from satellites you don't just see cars which are smaller than boats, you can even see the thinner markings separating parking spaces?

You can't see boats on the near real time satellite images of the Arctic we mere mortals have access to. MODIS resolution is 250 meters for example.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: crandles on August 14, 2019, 11:53:26 PM
(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190814180000_WIS38CT_0010718004.gif)

Still blocked per these maps unless you say that on 11th/12th August you could get to Western end of Bellot Straigt, find somewhere (preferably sheltered) to anchor and let that orange block drift northwards. Now you can continue along route 4.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fice-glaces.ec.gc.ca%2Fprods%2FWIS38CT%2F20190811180000_WIS38CT_0010713325.gif&hash=479e2dd8f6fe6857fb60be7c4ab0126c)

Hmm Second image not showing should be:

http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190811180000_WIS38CT_0010713325.gif

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 15, 2019, 11:12:17 AM
Still blocked per these maps

Quite so. Here's another new Sentinel 1 image recorded yesterday.

Despite the CIS's reservations some more "small vessels" have made it past the orange block and into Franklin Strait, whilst Bremen looks to be en route to Gjoa Haven:

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 15, 2019, 01:50:49 PM

Despite the CIS's reservations some more "small vessels" have made it past the orange block and into Franklin Strait, whilst Bremen looks to be en route to Gjoa Haven:
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?
If they are, does it count if they make it through?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: AndyW on August 15, 2019, 03:07:51 PM
In regards to the NW passage being navigable I don't think this is a very interesting topic until year on year you can go north of Victoria Island  and do the direct route.

That would then equate to ships transversing the Northern passage on the eastern side easily, as per all the action currently.

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: petm on August 16, 2019, 05:18:28 AM
Open on the latest CIS map it seems:

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS38CT/20190815180000_WIS38CT_0010719466.gif)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 16, 2019, 11:06:17 AM
Open on the latest CIS map it seems

In conjunction with the Resolute/Lancaster Sound CIS map and assorted tracking maps we can safely say that routes 3 and 4 opened in the first half of August. However routes 5,6 and 7 are still blocked at Bellot Strait.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 16, 2019, 11:14:36 AM
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?

Not necessarily. Tecla (https://classic-sailing.co.uk/article/tecla-first-tall-ship-attempt-north-west-passage) is "an original Dutch herring drifter built in 1915 to fish the North Seas under sail" and claims to be "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage":
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: binntho on August 16, 2019, 12:03:36 PM
What do they mean by "tall ship" in this context? I also seem to remember reading that wooden hulls are better able to withstand being frozen in ice, but perhaps not so good at ramming ice.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: BenB on August 16, 2019, 12:12:26 PM
Tall ships:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tall_ship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tall_ship)

Basically they're large, traditionally-rigged sailing ships.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: binntho on August 16, 2019, 12:39:13 PM
That's how I've always understood the term "tall ship". So when they say "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage", they presumably assume that earlier attempts to find the North West Passage do not count as attempts at the North West Passage.

But then what about Amundsen's Gjøa?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 16, 2019, 12:58:08 PM
That's how I've always understood the term "tall ship". So when they say "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage", they presumably assume that earlier attempts to find the North West Passage do not count as attempts at the North West Passage.

But then what about Amundsen's Gjøa?
Indeed. Perhaps they should add "in modern times", and still hope for good weather.

https://www.rmg.co.uk/discover/explore/john-franklin-final-north-west-passage-expedition-1845
John Franklin's final North-West Passage expedition 1845

Quote
In May 1845 two ships, HMS Erebus and Terror sailed from Britain to what is now Nunavut in Northern Canada. Explorations of the Arctic coastline had led to great optimism that finding and charting the final part of the North-West Passage – the seaway linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans – was now within reach. Explorer John Franklin, who had made two previous attempts to find it, was keen to claim the prize.

By previous standards the Erebus and Terror were powerful and luxurious, with heating systems and vast supplies of preserved foods. In late July, the two ships were seen by a whaler in Baffin Bay, waiting for ice to clear in Lancaster Sound and to begin their journey to the Bering Strait. It was the last time any of the 129 crewmen were ever seen alive.


The image is worth a click
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: binntho on August 16, 2019, 01:03:07 PM
There's a fairly recent and extremely good book about the Terror and Erebus expedition called simply "The Terror" by Dan Simmon. I think we have mentioned it before here, but for all ice enthusiasts it's really worth reading.

That painting is magnificent - and the painter does know what ice looks like, even if he may be exaggerating a little bit.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 16, 2019, 04:13:30 PM
read online:  https://www.onlinebook4u.net/horror/The_Terror/
Internet search for other (free) on-line, downloadable and audiobook options
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: HapHazard on August 16, 2019, 06:19:52 PM
Brilliantly done TV show, too.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 16, 2019, 07:03:34 PM
Some slightly less terrifying sea ice seen on Altego II's recent excursion through Peel Sound:


https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2584049234961317&id=100000687980960
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Phil. on August 16, 2019, 07:07:04 PM
Bremen has travelled through ice-free flat calm waters for the last couple of days and is now off Cambridge Bay.  Looks fairly uneventful.
(https://static.hl-cruises.de/fileadmin/_processed_/7/e/csm_f_2019_08_161810_5f76343e38.jpg)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 18, 2019, 05:28:48 PM
Are these small vessels' hulls strengthened against ice?

Not necessarily. Tecla (https://classic-sailing.co.uk/article/tecla-first-tall-ship-attempt-north-west-passage) is "an original Dutch herring drifter built in 1915 to fish the North Seas under sail" and claims to be "The first tall ship to attempt the North West Passage":

And not waiting around for 6/10:

"We have left Pond Inlet behind and set sail for Navy Board Inlet, currently almost at the end of the Inlet, ready for Lancaster Sound. Lancaster Sound is said to be open enough to pass through with 2/10 ice and some isolated Icebergs."

Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2019, 11:41:52 AM
And not waiting around for 6/10

From Tecla's August 15th report (https://www.tecla-sailing.com/ice-on-our-mind/) in Peel Sound:

"Now we are slowly making our way through some big pack of sea ice. The flow North has become thicker, making it harder to manoeuvre.  We are trying to spot the way through by going up high into the mast, but for now the ice seems to be all around. We had all expected it to start at some point, so for now we are just biting our way through, poles at the ready to poke away bigger ice!"
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Phil. on August 19, 2019, 02:20:56 PM
Randall Reeves seems to have made good progress down Peel in the last 24 hrs.
http://figure8voyage.com/figure-8-map/ (http://figure8voyage.com/figure-8-map/)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Killian on August 19, 2019, 04:23:22 PM
so for now we are just biting our way through, poles at the ready to poke away bigger ice!"

Exactly as one would expect. In the Arctic. No? If I sailed through the NWP and never had to slow down, I'd be really, really disappointed. The thrill comes from the location, certainly, but more so from the danger element. I'd want to spend hours or days having to pick through ice, or else why go?

Merriam-Webster says:

Quote
Definition of navigable

1a : deep enough and wide enough to afford passage to ships navigable waterways
b : capable of being navigated

Don't say nuttin' 'bout no ice!

;-)

Navigable is navigable. Can be gotten through or not - and need not be safe for every vessel, either, nor successful. That's a risk assessment issue, not a definition issue. I think maybe a series of benchmarks might be an interesting approach:

When icebreaker navigable - irrelevant at this point?
When double-hulled, Arctic-rated navigable.
When single-hulled, Arctic-rated navigable.
When double-hulled freight/oil navigable.
When single-hull freight/oil navigable.
When cruise ship navigable.
When yacht/pleasure craft/fishing boat navigable.

Or whatever. Maybe there's not enough difference to attempt a distinction...
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Phil. on August 20, 2019, 02:31:29 PM
Randall Reeves seems to have cleared the ice in  Peel.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffigure8voyage.com%2Ffigure-8-map%2F&hash=1e3b4d8eaa6e5ef1618e47d0c04b3af7)
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 20, 2019, 03:18:38 PM
Killian...still boxing with shadows I see.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: bill kapra on August 21, 2019, 02:28:51 AM
Was looking for the Parry ice chart on Canadian Ice Service website but it comes up as unavailable and dated Aug.1. Is that because they don’t post until near-navigable?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 21, 2019, 10:36:20 AM
Was looking for the Parry ice chart on Canadian Ice Service website but it comes up as unavailable and dated Aug.1. Is that because they don’t post until near-navigable?

Yes.

Plan B is to look at the weekly chart, but that is still dated August 12th:
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: Kognsfjorden on August 21, 2019, 03:43:31 PM
It appears at least four small sailing boats are now through the worst of the ice, Alioth, Mandregore, Tecla and Moli, so the passage was open by at least August 19 th.
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NeilHamp on September 02, 2019, 07:54:13 PM
Does anyone know if any more than these four have got through this year?
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NeilHamp on September 02, 2019, 08:06:07 PM
2017 32 transits of NW passage
2018 only 2 transits
2019 only 4 transits so far

Looks like its getting tougher up there!
Title: Re: When will the Northwest Passage "open" in 2019?
Post by: NeilHamp on October 22, 2019, 09:11:16 AM
2019 transits have been updated at

https://www.spri.cam.ac.uk/resources/infosheets/northwestpassage.pdf

Looks like 24 made it this year