Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: VideoGameVet on June 26, 2019, 11:08:05 PM

Title: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 26, 2019, 11:08:05 PM
I decided the best thing I can do about the climate crises, besides the personal and political stuff (bike commuting, vegan, donating what I can to candidates who get it) is to apply my game design experience (decades) to a post-climate-apocalypse game.

As a child, the film "On The Beach" scared me, made me think.  I want this game to move people to seriously consider what a 4ºC warmer world would be like.

Assume a 4ºC rise in global temps (sure looks like we are heading there), what would the landscape look like (for example in Kentucky)? Would it be safe to assume that massive wildfires have already occurred?

I am already assuming institutional collapse and a massive die-off (see World Bank estimates). But I have to direct the art team on the visuals, so I could really use some advice.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world
Post by: Ken Feldman on June 28, 2019, 12:33:27 AM
Check out this book by Mark Lynas:

(https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/91+t4w6JKLL._AC_UL654_QL65_.jpg)

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/six-degrees/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/six-degrees/)

Quote
Six Degrees, as the title suggests, is comprised of six main chapters (plus an introduction and a conclusion). Each of the main chapters examine what the earth might look like as we raise the planet’s temperature by 1o, 2o, etc. degrees Celsius, based on what the scientific literature has to say about it. Laying out the book this way makes for a good logical progression of ideas, and a fair bit of suspense. Very few people, Lynas says, have got “the slightest idea what two, four or six degrees of average warming actually means in reality, and I’m sure he is right.

Quote
At 4o, we have “with global sea levels half a meter or more above current levels, [the Egyptian city of] Alexandria’s long lifespan will be drawing to a close. Even in today’s climate, a substantial part of the city lies below sea level, and by the latter part of this century a terminal inundation will have begun. … a rise in sea levels of 50 cm would displace 1.5 million people and cause $35 billion of damage.” Alarmist? Hardly. A 50 cm rise in sea level, is well within the conservative IPCC projections, even for temperature rises less than four degrees.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 28, 2019, 02:27:29 AM
Check out this book by Mark Lynas:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/six-degrees/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2007/11/six-degrees/)

Quote
Six Degrees, as the title suggests, is comprised of six main chapters (plus an introduction and a conclusion). Each of the main chapters examine what the earth might look like as we raise the planet’s temperature by 1o, 2o, etc. degrees Celsius, based on what the scientific literature has to say about it. Laying out the book this way makes for a good logical progression of ideas, and a fair bit of suspense. Very few people, Lynas says, have got “the slightest idea what two, four or six degrees of average warming actually means in reality, and I’m sure he is right.

Quote
At 4o, we have “with global sea levels half a meter or more above current levels, [the Egyptian city of] Alexandria’s long lifespan will be drawing to a close. Even in today’s climate, a substantial part of the city lies below sea level, and by the latter part of this century a terminal inundation will have begun. … a rise in sea levels of 50 cm would displace 1.5 million people and cause $35 billion of damage.” Alarmist? Hardly. A 50 cm rise in sea level, is well within the conservative IPCC projections, even for temperature rises less than four degrees.

Wow. Perfect.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: RealityCheck on June 28, 2019, 03:32:53 PM
Good idea, Vet.
At 4 deg C many here would think the IPCC predictions will be far exceeded, as said already.Sea level rise far above 1.5 or 2m for example. Bad disruption to agriculture. Drought and water shortage. So imagine all the consequential issues..... The movie 'The Road' might offer some inspiration? Hopefully not 'The Matrix'!
PS I thought of 'Six degrees' too... 😁
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 28, 2019, 04:42:00 PM
at 4 C globally, it would be like 5 C on the NH, and 3 C on the SH. Also NH land would warm 6 C, sea probably 2-3 C. So all you need to do is find a place that is 6 C warmer than now. Toronto becomes Richmond, Richmond becomes Savannah, Savannah becomes Havanna. That's it. And no arctic ice of course :)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 28, 2019, 04:58:10 PM
There could be levels.

2˚C = weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction

4˚C = only a few livable places where the rich life with the military to protect them, wild west scenario in the rest of the world, no functioning societies anymore

6˚C = only few human survivors left, trying to rebuild a civilisation
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 28, 2019, 06:59:17 PM
at 4 C globally, it would be like 5 C on the NH, and 3 C on the SH. Also NH land would warm 6 C, sea probably 2-3 C. So all you need to do is find a place that is 6 C warmer than now. Toronto becomes Richmond, Richmond becomes Savannah, Savannah becomes Havanna. That's it. And no arctic ice of course :)

I would also guess that in the southeastern USA wet bulb temps would approach the 94ºF unsurvivabe mark as well.

The game is a mix of a visual novel (characters talking about their world) and a journey north to Canada.

Really appreciate the advice.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 28, 2019, 07:07:16 PM
There could be levels.

2˚C = weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction

4˚C = only a few livable places where the rich life with the military to protect them, wild west scenario in the rest of the world, no functioning societies anymore

6˚C = only few human survivors left, trying to rebuild a civilisation

I was thinking of having 3 levels as you describe, maybe 4ºC, 5ºC, and 6ºC.

This would affect supplies and 'events' (heatwaves etc,)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 28, 2019, 07:21:07 PM
Cross over any locations under 90 feet above sea level. Well, at least describe them as soon-to-be abandoned/not economically maintained.

One scenario in the game could be a refugee ship passengers attempting to cross to the safe high ground. Thanks to weapons deals on the previous decade, they'll be armed and very hungry for any arable land.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 28, 2019, 08:14:23 PM
Cross over any locations under 90 feet above sea level. Well, at least describe them as soon-to-be abandoned/not economically maintained.

One scenario in the game could be a refugee ship passengers attempting to cross to the safe high ground. Thanks to weapons deals on the previous decade, they'll be armed and very hungry for any arable land.

I'm going to use a well loved game mechanic, having a party of survivors travel from Atlanta to Sault Ste. Marie.  Characters will mention the flooding, of course.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: wili on June 28, 2019, 11:15:12 PM
"I would also guess that in the southeastern USA wet bulb temps would approach the 94ºF unsurvivabe mark as well."

Perhaps, but most of the highest wbt/heat index records set in the US have been in the Midwest or even  upper Midwest:

"...during the July heat wave of 1995 that the highest dew point of all was measured in the Upper Midwest: 90° at Appleton, Wisconsin at 5 p.m. on July 13th of that summer. The air temperature stood at 101° in Appleton at that time leading to a heat index reading of 148°, perhaps the highest such reading ever measured in the United States..."

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/record-dew-point-temperatures.html

Crop transpiration seems to be a major factor here.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 12:21:30 AM
There could be levels.

2˚C = weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction

4˚C = only a few livable places where the rich life with the military to protect them, wild west scenario in the rest of the world, no functioning societies anymore

6˚C = only few human survivors left, trying to rebuild a civilisation

 2C is already happenning at 1C.
 
1. weather pattern shifting: atmospheric patterns are already shifting
2. weather extremes increasing: Already happenning.
3. first deep environmental changes: See the Melting season thread
4. mass extinction: we are right smack in the middle of it.

So I'll suggest this:

1C: We are here.  weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction. Peak humanity is past. Decay begins.

1.5C: Human system are already corroded by the relentless onslaught of extreme weather, then we get the first BOE. That's when SHTF. The year of the first BOE the weather will go bananas everywhere in the NH. Storms, hail, heatwaves during September-October, then, the heat is vented from the arctic and the snow begins. Snow like never before.  I'm talking about several meters of snow in some places, most people won't survive.  Other places get heatwaves. Winter heatwaves are the sweet spot to travel. After this, 10% of the population remains. Geopolitics can't be predicted because the change is too large.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: sidd on June 29, 2019, 12:46:20 AM
Re: "After the first BOE ... After this, 10% of the population remains."

Really ? How soon after the first BOE is this to be expected ?

sidd
 
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 01:13:47 AM
Quote
Really ? How soon after the first BOE is this to be expected ?

Disorder already started. The disorder will increase as we approach the first BOE. After the first BOE Disorder gets out of hand, systems collapse, war and famine begins. That is if we are not prepared.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: interstitial on June 29, 2019, 01:19:14 AM
the places becoming less livable thread should produce some ideas.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: sidd on June 29, 2019, 01:25:46 AM
I suppose, just like economists, never give a prediction coupled with a time. That way you are never wrong.

The question was, how soon after the first BOE would 10% of the population remain ? Or for that matter when is the first BOE to be expected ?

A year with an error bar for over/under would be nice.

sidd
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Ardeus on June 29, 2019, 02:48:28 AM
At 4 degrees C, industrial civilization already has collapsed, the arctic ice will be a distant memory.

Without arctic ice, there will be little difference in temperature between the north pole and the equator (the jet stream won't exist by then).

Large scale agriculture is no longer possible under these conditions due to drastic change in weather patterns. This will get hundreds of millions of people on the move.

I won't be surprised if all this unravels before you manage to get your game out.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 07:27:02 AM

2C is already happenning at 1C.
 
1. weather pattern shifting: atmospheric patterns are already shifting
2. weather extremes increasing: Already happenning.
3. first deep environmental changes: See the Melting season thread
4. mass extinction: we are right smack in the middle of it.

Yes, that's right. It's not so apparent for average joe though. Most people (at least the rich) still live their lives in a normal way. At 2˚C the symptoms are the same but will impact people in their daily lives other then it does today. Then it will become obvious.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 11:47:27 AM
To me it is obvious now, but I get what you mean.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 29, 2019, 12:42:56 PM
At 4 degrees C, industrial civilization already has collapsed, the arctic ice will be a distant memory.

Without arctic ice, there will be little difference in temperature between the north pole and the equator (the jet stream won't exist by then).

Large scale agriculture is no longer possible under these conditions due to drastic change in weather patterns. This will get hundreds of millions of people on the move.

I won't be surprised if all this unravels before you manage to get your game out.

This is absoultely and completely baseless.

1) at 4 degrees C globally it is likely that Equator-regions will warm 1-2 C, and midlatitudes 4-6 C. That won't kill anyone, won't collapse anything, etc. If you live in Berlin would you say that if the weather became that of Rome people would die and government would collapse? Of course not. If you live in Rome would you say that people in Egypt are unable to survive? of course not.
2) No model whatsoever predicts an equable climate and we still do not know what causes an equable climate so stating that there will be little difference in temps between the NP and Equator is unscientific to say the least.
3) Guess what: large scale agriculture is happening even in the tropics, so stating that at warmer temps there will be no large scale agriculture is baseless again.

The only (probably) true statment from the above is that there will be places that will become unliveable (probably due to drought) and there will be millions on the move due to this. How we will handle this is unforeseeable and it will certainly cause big problems but the MadMax-worldview that you gave is not going to happen.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 01:13:11 PM

This is absoultely and completely baseless.

1) at 4 degrees C globally it is likely that Equator-regions will warm 1-2 C, and midlatitudes 4-6 C. That won't kill anyone, won't collapse anything, etc. If you live in Berlin would you say that if the weather became that of Rome people would die and government would collapse? Of course not. If you live in Rome would you say that people in Egypt are unable to survive? of course not.
2) No model whatsoever predicts an equable climate and we still do not know what causes an equable climate so stating that there will be little difference in temps between the NP and Equator is unscientific to say the least.
3) Guess what: large scale agriculture is happening even in the tropics, so stating that at warmer temps there will be no large scale agriculture is baseless again.

The only (probably) true statment from the above is that there will be places that will become unliveable (probably due to drought) and there will be millions on the move due to this. How we will handle this is unforeseeable and it will certainly cause big problems but the MadMax-worldview that you gave is not going to happen.

what a load of nonsense.

Quote
at 4 degrees C globally it is likely that Equator-regions will warm 1-2 C, and midlatitudes 4-6 C. That won't kill anyone, won't collapse anything, etc.

4C over 100 years is worldwide destruction with only the small organisms surviving and patches of humans struggling to survive.

Quote
If you live in Berlin would you say that if the weather became that of Rome people would die and government would collapse? Of course not.

That would depend on how fast the Berlinians can adapt their infrastructure to Roman climate.

But that is not what's going to happen at all.  Berlin will have Rome weather for a few weeks, then Siberian weather, for a few more weeks, then Saharan weather for a few more weeks, then it will have Caribbean weather for a few weeks, you name it, it will happen.


Quote
If you live in Rome would you say that people in Egypt are unable to survive? of course not

Adaptation is not instantaneous, nor it is guranteed. With people denying the dangers winning public opinion means we adapt like animals. Slow. Blind. Reacting confused and panicked.

Quote
2) No model whatsoever predicts an equable climate and we still do not know what causes an equable climate so stating that there will be little difference in temps between the NP and Equator is unscientific to say the least.

It is not an equable climate that you should fear. It is what is in between what we have now and an equable climate. The transition.


Quote
3) Guess what: large scale agriculture is happening even in the tropics, so stating that at warmer temps there will be no large scale agriculture is baseless again.


Agriculture is already being disrupted by changes in seasonality and hydroligic cycles. And this is just the very beginning.

Quote
The only (probably) true statment from the above is that there will be places that will become unliveable (probably due to drought) and there will be millions on the move due to this. How we will handle this is unforeseeable and it will certainly cause big problems but the MadMax-worldview that you gave is not going to happen.


Why? Because the world owes you a livable world? Or maybe because it has never happened before thus you "know" it can't never happen?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Qce on June 29, 2019, 01:51:05 PM
If you need a time frame, various sources put the earliest plausible time frame for +4C around 2050-70.

For example the SRES A1FI scenario:
- Rapid economic growth.
- A global population that reaches 9 billion in 2050 and then gradually declines.
- The quick spread of new and efficient technologies.
- A convergent world - income and way of life converge between regions. Extensive social and cultural interactions worldwide
- An emphasis on fossil-fuels (Fossil Intensive)

Also,
“a 4 degrees C future is incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable.”
(Kevin Anderson)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 02:11:27 PM
BTW VideoGameVet,

i keep recommending watching this brilliant talk. I think you as a programmer will enjoy it and it might give you a better idea on how to model such things.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDZkKvC8r40
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 29, 2019, 02:27:40 PM
Archimid, you have not provided one bit of evidence for your extraordinary claims. This is especially hilarious:

"4C over 100 years is worldwide destruction with only the small organisms surviving and patches of humans struggling to survive."

Considering that we have seen 10-15 C changes in midlatitude climate at the beginning and end of ice ages many times in the past one million years alone. And as we now know, these changes happened in a matter of DECADES. The Eocene had 14 C warmer average temps than now, and lo and behold there was life. So this statement of yours is really just hyperbole squared and goes against all evidence from the paleorecord.

also:

"Berlin will have Rome weather for a few weeks, then Siberian weather, for a few more weeks, then Saharan weather for a few more weeks, then it will have Caribbean weather for a few weeks, you name it, it will happen"

Utterly baseless, no model says anything like that will happen, and no paleorecord says it ever happened.

Last:
"Agriculture is already being disrupted by changes in seasonality and hydroligic cycles"

Also untrue. There is an overproduction of food globally, no disruption, no shortages.

Thing is, this is just a psychological phemonenon: people always love to imagine and fear a terrible all changing future that will cleanse the world of its sins. The Flood, the Last Judgement, you name it.

I agree that climate change is truly a huge danger and we need to deal with it quickly, but what you describe is utter unscientific nonsense

 
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Ardeus on June 29, 2019, 03:30:40 PM
Archimid, you have not provided one bit of evidence for your extraordinary claims. This is especially hilarious:

"4C over 100 years is worldwide destruction with only the small organisms surviving and patches of humans struggling to survive."

Considering that we have seen 10-15 C changes in midlatitude climate at the beginning and end of ice ages many times in the past one million years alone. And as we now know, these changes happened in a matter of DECADES. The Eocene had 14 C warmer average temps than now, and lo and behold there was life. So this statement of yours is really just hyperbole squared and goes against all evidence from the paleorecord.

also:

"Berlin will have Rome weather for a few weeks, then Siberian weather, for a few more weeks, then Saharan weather for a few more weeks, then it will have Caribbean weather for a few weeks, you name it, it will happen"

Utterly baseless, no model says anything like that will happen, and no paleorecord says it ever happened.

Last:
"Agriculture is already being disrupted by changes in seasonality and hydroligic cycles"

Also untrue. There is an overproduction of food globally, no disruption, no shortages.

Thing is, this is just a psychological phemonenon: people always love to imagine and fear a terrible all changing future that will cleanse the world of its sins. The Flood, the Last Judgement, you name it.

I agree that climate change is truly a huge danger and we need to deal with it quickly, but what you describe is utter unscientific nonsense

The Earth system has predictably proved time and time again that it is far to big and complex for computer models.

I honestly believe that subconscious evaluations of our current situation and predictions for the future are as trustworthy as current computer models.

Will anyone on this forum be surprised if we have a BOE in the next 3 years?

Can anyone expect climate patterns not being disrupted after that?

That being said, the BOE is a psychological milestone. No one knows for sure if we even need a full BOE to get changes in weather patterns that will disrupt agriculture to the point where it will create a few hundred millions of refugees.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 03:58:16 PM
Quote
Considering that we have seen 10-15 C changes in midlatitude climate at the beginning and end of ice ages many times in the past one million years alone. And as we now know, these changes happened in a matter of DECADES.

10-15c over decades? Citation needed.

Quote
The Eocene had 14 C warmer average temps than now, and lo and behold there was life. So this statement of yours is really just hyperbole squared and goes against all evidence from the

4C over 100 years is not the same as 4C over thousands of years. 4C over 1000 years is no problem life will adapt as proven by your statement.


Quote
"Berlin will have Rome weather for a few weeks, then Siberian weather, for a few more weeks, then Saharan weather for a few more weeks, then it will have Caribbean weather for a few weeks, you name it, it will happen"

Utterly baseless, no model says anything like that will happen, and no paleorecord says it ever happened.

This is just beginning. As the Arctic melts and the atmospheric currents lose regularity the NH starts feeling the effects I describe. If the Arctic holds models will acquire the new data and show what I speak of.

Last:
"Agriculture is already being disrupted by changes in seasonality and hydroligic cycles"

Also untrue. There is an overproduction of food globally, no disruption, no shortages.

No shortages... yet. Certainly disruption. But you can’t allow this simple fact to be true or your theory that we will magically adapt breaks.

Quote
Thing is, this is just a psychological phemonenon: people always love to imagine and fear a terrible all changing future that will cleanse the world of its sins. The Flood, the Last Judgement, you name it.

I think the problem is confirmation bias. The world has never collapse, thus it can’t collapse, even if all the evidence indicates that it will.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: kassy on June 29, 2019, 07:22:30 PM
What would the game teach? Or is it just a setting.

One important aspect in all this is generations. Hardly any game makes you care about those because usually choices don´t matter. I like One Hour One Life in this aspect.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 29, 2019, 07:31:24 PM
There could be levels.

2˚C = weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction

4˚C = only a few livable places where the rich life with the military to protect them, wild west scenario in the rest of the world, no functioning societies anymore

6˚C = only few human survivors left, trying to rebuild a civilisation

 2C is already happenning at 1C.
 
1. weather pattern shifting: atmospheric patterns are already shifting
2. weather extremes increasing: Already happenning.
3. first deep environmental changes: See the Melting season thread
4. mass extinction: we are right smack in the middle of it.

So I'll suggest this:

1C: We are here.  weather pattern shifting, weather extremes increasing, first deep environmental changes, i.e. mass extinction. Peak humanity is past. Decay begins.

1.5C: Human system are already corroded by the relentless onslaught of extreme weather, then we get the first BOE. That's when SHTF. The year of the first BOE the weather will go bananas everywhere in the NH. Storms, hail, heatwaves during September-October, then, the heat is vented from the arctic and the snow begins. Snow like never before.  I'm talking about several meters of snow in some places, most people won't survive.  Other places get heatwaves. Winter heatwaves are the sweet spot to travel. After this, 10% of the population remains. Geopolitics can't be predicted because the change is too large.

Sorry for my ignorance, but what does BOE stand for?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 29, 2019, 07:42:49 PM
What would the game teach? Or is it just a setting.

One important aspect in all this is generations. Hardly any game makes you care about those because usually choices don´t matter. I like One Hour One Life in this aspect.

OK, let me share the backstory (I may regret this one):

Backstory:  Climate has warmed to over 4ºC.  We live in a post-apocalyptic world where most people have died and storms and heatwaves remain a constant threat,

We start at a survivor camp in the ruins of the city of Atlanta.  Our group decides to make for Canada to escape the horrid conditions they are experiencing,  Gathering plant seeds, the only accepted currency, you have to decide what supplies to take.  Water and food will not be easily found.  Salvaged bicycles are loaded up and our small group of 4 survivors (you and 3 others) slowly make their way on the nearly 2000km journey to Canada and Lake Superior, in search of survival.

Along the way they will be plagued by storms, killing heatwaves, and mosquito born diseases.   Some may not make it.  As a leader, your decisions mean life or death.

You’ll meet other survivors who will share their stories and you’ll learn how all this came to pass. 



As you can guess, I'm using the Oregon Trail as a gameplay model.  Oregon Trail is the most successful educational game of all time having sold 65m copies.  There are visual novel elements to give the characters more depth and hopefully provoke some empathy and even anger.

I will be giving away this game because I figure maybe I can create some emotional impact that gets people considering just how bad the worst case can be.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 07:47:10 PM
Sorry for my ignorance, but what does BOE stand for?

No ignorance here. We have our jargon. ;)

It means blue ocean event. It means the Arctic is almost melted out and lost it's 'buffer' function. Several weird weather things gonna happen when this happens. The meteorologists here can address that way better than me.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: kassy on June 29, 2019, 08:29:53 PM
BOE is Blue Ocean Event or the year when arctic ice goes away at least in the summer or dips below 1m square miles.

Never heard of Oregon Trail but that is some cool game history.

The trouble is what kind of story you want to tell. I guess this is a cautionary tale...you don´t want this kids but the problem is that kids know. Maybe we need a game were global warming kills golf lawns.

If i were to make a game i would base it in Civ III (updated for all the extra PC power we have now). You have to run global Civilization so the world is on a survivable trajectory using IPCC scenarios and current science. Starting in the nineties would help. Needs a bit of tech tree rework...

Oh yeah and you also have to modernize the world as much as possible. So you share green tech and pay people to keep pristine forests instead of turning them into palm oil falms and all that.

Shared wealth slows population growth etc.

One scenario that might be interesting for the game is the vulnerability of small groups.
If the going is really tough a bigger group might take your stuff (or worse).

One of my favorite youth memories is an OdM/D&D type adventure where my best friends much older brother made up the story. He had some vampires in there we could not beat (without risk of death) but after a while we figured out the smart thing and we escaped after figuring out a puzzle....bottom line you can´t be heroes all the time. You also cannot trust bigger groups when resources are scarce.

Anyway GL on your project!
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: morganism on June 29, 2019, 08:53:25 PM
should have a scenario where we try geo-engineering , and it works !

then the permafrost meltout happens, and the methane kills all the hydroxyls, and creates permanent noctilucent cloud cover, stopping most sunlight from getting to the ground, ice age starts, and hello glaciers.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: aperson on June 29, 2019, 09:07:29 PM
Given the start and finish point for this game and the Oregon trail style, I think a major driver of variability between gameplays will be just how chaotic synoptic scale weather will be in this scenario.

Is there an option to start the journey at different times of year? Summer would essentially be hard mode compared to Winter. Some playthroughs should expect to see regions with neverending torrential rains while similar regions are covered in extreme drought on a different playthrough.

Would there be options to wait in place and consume resources instead of move on? Decisionmaking about whether a stuck weather pattern will moderate or whether one must instead just push through it would be critical.

Having someone in your party with access to satellite data from things like the GOES satellites that are still just up there orbiting would be a major boon to being able to make smart migratory decisions.

Lots of interesting options here with this style of game.

Edit: I'd also recommend putting the backstory in the OP to get more relevantly guided discussion. It may also be useful to consider what sort of concentration pathway got us to 4C. Is this 4C in 2150 or 2050?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 29, 2019, 09:27:32 PM
This one for Archimid from Nature, hope this will do:

https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/abrupt-climate-change-during-the-last-ice-24288097

There you have it:

"There are twenty-five of these distinct warming-cooling oscillations (Dansgaard 1984) which are now commonly referred to as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, or D-O cycles. One of the most surprising findings was that the shifts from cold stadials to the warm interstadial intervals occurred in a matter of decades, with air temperatures over Greenland rapidly warming 8 to 15°C"
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 29, 2019, 09:44:11 PM
should have a scenario where we try geo-engineering , and it works !


It's a video game, not a marketing campaign for big oil. ;)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: wili on June 29, 2019, 09:44:45 PM
EC, ice cores from Greenland can tell us a lot about shifts in temperatures in Greenland, but not that much about how quickly shifts happen elsewhere.

In any case, all these variations, going back tens of millions of years, were within a range that was mostly at about current global temperatures or below. We are now looking at significant and relatively rapid global shifts of temperatures up into regions the earth has not experienced for tens of millions of years. A lot of life has evolved to live within parameter that will no longer exist.

One wonders what your intentions might be for trying to downplay the very dire consequences that pretty much all climate scientists and the bodies that represent them recognize will be quite catastrophic, especially as we go to 4 degrees and more C above pre-industrial levels.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 29, 2019, 10:25:52 PM
Given the start and finish point for this game and the Oregon trail style, I think a major driver of variability between gameplays will be just how chaotic synoptic scale weather will be in this scenario.

Is there an option to start the journey at different times of year? Summer would essentially be hard mode compared to Winter. Some playthroughs should expect to see regions with neverending torrential rains while similar regions are covered in extreme drought on a different playthrough.

Would there be options to wait in place and consume resources instead of move on? Decisionmaking about whether a stuck weather pattern will moderate or whether one must instead just push through it would be critical.

Having someone in your party with access to satellite data from things like the GOES satellites that are still just up there orbiting would be a major boon to being able to make smart migratory decisions.

Lots of interesting options here with this style of game.

Edit: I'd also recommend putting the backstory in the OP to get more relevantly guided discussion. It may also be useful to consider what sort of concentration pathway got us to 4C. Is this 4C in 2150 or 2050?

Starting time was a big component of the Oregon Trail and it could be here.  I was also thinking, at the start, of giving the player 3 'difficulty' options: 4.0ºC, 4.5ºC, and 5.0ºC warming.

Random weather events and decision making about when to hunker down or when to travel will play a role.  Members of the party getting sick (dengue fever? dysentery?) and having to decide to rest or not.  Limited supplies of food and water.  Deciding if you want to spend a day distilling water found to remove pathogens (solar evaporator thing).

I want to try and get the impact that "On The Beach" had on me.  Even a successful game outcome should give the player the feeling that they have only bought some time before the end comes.

I wonder if we have had the worst outcome, the World Bank estimate of 80%-90% fatalities and institutional collapse, would there be any infrastructure to access weather satellites.  Things like cell service and the grid might be inoperable.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Paladiea on June 29, 2019, 10:27:46 PM
From what I can gather, a post 4°C world would be on the verge of global ocean anoxia, and most sea life would either be dead or dying.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on June 29, 2019, 11:17:44 PM
Few scientists are predicting a BOE (blue ocean event) soon. There certainly is some discussion of receding ice edge having impact on weather via jet stream changes but it seems somewhat controversial. I would be inclined to recommend against including BOE as a cause in game as I suspect it may well not age well. Changes to jet stream causing weather patterns to change without necessarily pinning this on a BOE seems adequate.

Warmer atmosphere holds more water so more intense downpours is pretty well established.

For droughts you want more blocking patterns keeping jet streams stuck in loops.

So more rainfall and more droughts is likely.

The combination causing top soil to be washed away causing agricultural problems and lots of climate refugees ....




 
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 29, 2019, 11:25:49 PM


One wonders what your intentions might be for trying to downplay the very dire consequences that pretty much all climate scientists and the bodies that represent them recognize will be quite catastrophic, especially as we go to 4 degrees and more C above pre-industrial levels.

Oh yes, i must be paid by the oil lobby or such.

Anyway, the fact is that during the past million years our planet went through many very quick temperature changes of more than 4 C and not just on Greenland but on the whole planet (see chart). Some species died, some adapted, some places became deserts, some turned from desert to forest, some places became drier, some wetter but sorry, no MadMaxWorld. Anyone who respects science and the facts understands this. Will there be species that can not adapt? Sure, no wooly mammoths or sabertooth tigers around anymore. But what most fantasize about here is untrue: the constantly happening extreme weatherevents that make all life impossible did not happen, not when global temps were 6 C beyond current or 12 C above. We owe it to the facts/science to understand/admit it. The game's basic premise, that a 4 C temp rise will lead to a MadMax type of World is simply very unlikely. I love facts and hate emotionally overhyped things.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 29, 2019, 11:42:18 PM
 El Cid we were talking about global temperatures, but you quickly mislead with a very local temperature over Greenland.  Global temperatures most certainly didn't not move 8C to 15C over decades, local temperatures did. Huge difference.

Furthermore, each one of these warming episodes was accompanied by significant changes in flora and fauna. That means species went extinct and were replaced by the species that adapted.  We are the fauna this time around but you just gloss over it.

Furthermore, your example proves that rapid local warming happens and it proves that it has global effects. A BOE is much more significant event than change in the Atlantic thermohaline because :

1. Arctic changes includes Atlantic changes
2. The Arctic is much more central to the North Hemisphere
3. There is no protection from the the North American or Eurasian Ice sheets.

Quote
And as we now know, these changes happened in a matter of DECADES. The Eocene had 14 C warmer average temps than now, and lo and behold there was life.

Of course there was life. As there will be plenty of life after a BOE or even a meteor strike. The point is that for most of the life present at the time there was test. The environment changed and they had to adapt or perish. Their change pales in comparison to the change that is happening right now.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 12:13:20 AM

Anyway, the fact is that during the past million years our planet went through many very quick temperature changes of more than 4 C and not just on Greenland but on the whole planet (see chart).


This is simply false. you will have to provide another citation because the one you provided last was local warming, not global. There have been global 4C changes over scales of thousands of years, not centuries, much less decades. Current warming is 10 times faster than the fastest warming on record. The only change that was probably faster than the one we are subjecting the planet to was the meteor that killed the dinosaurs and cooled the earth overnight.


Quote
Some species died, some adapted, some places became deserts, some turned from desert to forest, some places became drier, some wetter but sorry, no MadMaxWorld

Why would there be a madmax world if there were less than a million humans around. It wasn't until the long climate stability of the holocene that humans finally grew into what we are today. People that lived through those changes likely experienced hardship.

Quote
Anyone who respects science and the facts understands this

Understand what? That the species that lived through these times of change were stressed and many dint survive? No they don't. They take for granted that abrupt climate change won't happen because they are magical beings to whom the universe owes a perfect climate.

Quote
But what most fantasize about here is untrue: the constantly happening extreme weatherevents that make all life impossible did not happen, not when global temps were 6 C beyond current or 12 C above.

The lies you must tell yourself to believe your convenient truths. Your numbers don't even make sense. Global temperatures 6C and 12C above today at the same time we are talking about the last ice age?  6C-12C happenned last during the time of the dinosaurs. Not even the continents existed like they do today. You are speaking non sense.


Quote
The game's basic premise, that a 4 C temp rise will lead to a MadMax type of World is simply very unlikely
.

 You don't understand the difference between local and global temperatures and your lack of understanding of the time frames involved.

Quote
I love facts and hate emotionally overhyped things

Yet, your emotions betray you and make you ignore evidence in favor of comfortable lies. I understand. It is scary. Most people can't handle it.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: gerontocrat on June 30, 2019, 12:49:09 AM
Is not the Arctic warming at twice the rate of the world average?
If so, and the ratio is maintained, for the Arctic +4 = +8.

I think that means an ice-free Arctic summer.
I think that means an awful lot of Greenland Ice Sheet melting.
I assume the Antarctic gets somewhat warmer. I guess that means WAIS collapse.

I think that means AbruptSLR happening and unstoppable.
I think that means many hundreds of millions of people having to move. Where to?

Other major impacts
- too much water (not one-off floods, permanent rainfall increase) in some places
- too little water (not one-off drought, permanent rainfall decrease) in other places
- too much heat so large areas become Death Valley

A lot more of the planet becomes unsuitable for human habitation e.g. Middle East, Phoenix, Las Vegas, large parts of the Mississippi Missouri river basin.

Another few hundred million people have to leave. Where to?

NOT HERE. KEEP OUT!!
Europe bans immigration. Navies shoot on sight migrant ships.
Trump's successors build an electrified wall - border guards shoot on sight (learning from example of the Berlin Wall)

After several really difficult generations what comes out the other end ?
- A high-tech AI new human civilisation, or
- A few humans surviving quite well with pre-industrial technology, or
- Fewer humans than today with enough technology and the determination to screw up all over again. You can't change the nature of the beast?

I think if your game assumes that +4 degrees is going to happen it can't have a happy ending.
I've made myself a bit gloomy.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 30, 2019, 02:37:08 AM
should have a scenario where we try geo-engineering , and it works !

then the permafrost meltout happens, and the methane kills all the hydroxyls, and creates permanent noctilucent cloud cover, stopping most sunlight from getting to the ground, ice age starts, and hello glaciers.

Yeah, and the survivors are on a stupid nuclear-powered train that keeps circling the earth for no good reason when they could just park in a dome and heat it up.

You think people would go for a story like that?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on June 30, 2019, 02:39:45 AM


I think if your game assumes that +4 degrees is going to happen it can't have a happy ending.
I've made myself a bit gloomy.

It doesn't ... if you 'succeed' you will realize that you've only bought some time and people are already talking about going to the far north.

If I can get 10% of the emotional gut-punch that "On The Beach" gave me as a child, I will be satisfied.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: wili on June 30, 2019, 04:57:15 AM
"Oh yes, i must be paid by the oil lobby or such." Thanks for letting me know. I will now block you.

"Anyway, the fact is that during the past million years our planet went through many very quick temperature changes of more than 4 C ..."

And this further confirms your apparently well paid compulsion to misconstrue the facts, even as they have been just directly presented to you.

We have not, in fact, had changes of 4C degrees ABOVE current levels.

That was the whole point of my post. If you choose to totally fucking ignore my point, I will choose to fucking ignore you.

Have a good life, troll!

:)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: sidd on June 30, 2019, 05:36:30 AM
Re: "We have not, in fact, had changes of 4C degrees ABOVE current levels. "

Humans have not. But other creatures have. In fact almost everything before 15 or so MYr ago until 540 MYr (Phanerozoic eon) have been more than 4C hotter than present.

I attach temperature estimates from wiki for Phanerozoic.

sidd
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 30, 2019, 07:59:33 AM
wili,

calling me a troll and using the f word multiple times is pretty childish and won't change the facts and seems like a classic case of the reduction of cognitive dissonance (you are emotionally unable to accept new facts the contradict your original point of view)

archimid,

sidd attached the chart I meant to but unfortunately did not, and gerontocrat pointed your attention towards this thing we call Arctic Amplification that is happening right in front of our eyes: high latitude temperatures change more than mid and low lat temps DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME. sidd's chart shows global temps, and while Greenland temps had 8-15 C very quick oscillations (see Nature citation), global temps oscillated (as shown by sidd) 4-6 C. Same timeframe, smaller amplitude as can be seen. So we DID have multiple events of very fast global(not local!) 4-6 C changes in temps during the past one million years. Point proven.

Also, we probably had BOE about 120 000 years ago and we might have had BOE during the Holocene Optimum (see litreature for both).

I mostly agree in the consequences with gerontocrat: BOE, Greenland melting, possible WAIS collapse, abruptSLR and eventually the need to move millions of people (the question is how many, when and where to - I would say not before 2050 due to the slow nature of land-based ice melt). This is obviously bad, but still no MadMax.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 11:31:40 AM
El Cid. You are confused by the graph. Look at the time scales. To the left time is in thousands of years and to the right time is in millions of years. Your claims are wrong, but it seems like you have unconsciously thrown the towel. You don't want to see the difference between global and local.

The very few million people that lived through those event looked like mad max but without the technology and the nuclear waste. But luckily most of them where nomads, so when their dwelling was destroyed, they just pick and move.

We are not nomads.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on June 30, 2019, 12:11:03 PM
Archmid, that graph doesn't have the resolution necessary.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event

Quote
rapid climate fluctuations that occurred 25 times during the last glacial period.

Ice core evidence from Antarctic cores suggests that the Dansgaard–Oeschger events are related to the so-called Antarctic Isotope Maxima by means of a coupling of the climate of the two hemispheres, the Bi-polar Seesaw.

In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common.

Yes that 8C is local and global will be less. It is the local that does the damage so your

Quote
4C over 100 years is worldwide destruction with only the small organisms surviving and patches of humans struggling to survive.

seems extreme - not impossible that lots of refugees cause nuclear war ...  but I don't think we should be assuming this.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 12:58:54 PM
1. Global warming is not the same as local warming. Global warming of 4C over 100 years has not happenned on the paleo record, not even during the fastest global warming on record, the PETM

2. DO (Dasngaard-Oeschger) Events are a great analogy and example on how abrupt climate change is very likely and it is very destructive.

3. If a DO event happen today, that is, if the average temperature over Greenland rose 8C in 4 decades it would lead to war, famine and an end to human civilization as we know it. European and North American weather will go to s**t. Mass agriculture will fail for several years.

4. No madmax event can be perceived from DO events because there was no human civilization. There were humans, modern humans with all the mental capacity we have today, but they never could settle. I'm sure the rapidly changing climate didn't help. It wasn't until the Holocene climate stability that civilization emerged.

So literally the evidence indicates that during fast local warming episodes the normal human population is somewhere around 1 million individuals.

5. A BOE is much worse than a DO, with much farther reaching consequences.

6. Temperatures in the Arctic region have risen almost 1C a decade for the last 2 decades and accelerating.


The initial climatic repercussion are just starting to be felt, just like during the DO.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on June 30, 2019, 01:13:42 PM
3. If a DO event happen today, that is, if the average temperature over Greenland rose 8C in 4 decades it would lead to war, famine and an end to human civilization as we know it. European and North American weather will go to s**t. Mass agriculture will fail for several years.

5. A BOE is much worse than a DO, with much farther reaching consequences.

Says you and which scientists? Refs please.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on June 30, 2019, 01:54:28 PM
Arctic Amplification to demonstrate that the changes happen during the same time frame but with lower amplitude the farther we get from the Pole. The Arctic has already warmer 2-6 C during winter vs the 1950-80 baseline while NH midlatitudes warmed 1-2 C, and the global average is up 0,8 C on this timeframe
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 03:00:14 PM
Quote
3. If a DO event happen today, that is, if the average temperature over Greenland rose 8C in 4 decades it would lead to war, famine and an end to human civilization as we know it. European and North American weather will go to s**t. Mass agriculture will fail for several years.

Any scientist who has studied the consequences of DO events on planetary climate patterns calls it abrupt climate change for a good reason. Precipitation changes and temperature changes lead to vegetation and hydrologic changes that would have destroyed modern civilization.

https://www.clim-past.net/15/811/2019/

Quote
Other proxy records throughout the Northern Hemisphere also document the widespread environmental imprint of these rapid warming events. Marine sediment cores (Dokken et al., 2013) and aerosol records from Greenland (Spolaor et al., 2016) show a reduction in perennial sea-ice cover in the Nordic Sea and Arctic Basin, and ocean circulation proxies indicate an increase in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) (Lynch-Stieglitz, 2017). Records from North America indicate a change in the moisture advection from the Pacific with drier conditions during the warm interstadial periods likely related to changes in atmospheric circulation (Wagner et al., 2010; Asmerom et al., 2010). These circulation changes coincide with increased wildfire activity in North America as clearly imprinted in the Greenland ice-core record (Fischer et al., 2015). Furthermore, records from Eurasia indicate rapid changes in the local ecosystems (Rousseau et al., 2017). In the lower latitudes, speleothem and sediment records from both South America (Wang et al., 2004; Deplazes et al., 2013) and eastern Asia (Wang et al., 2008) indicate a northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) at the time of DO warming (Cheng et al., 2012) resulting in rapid changes in tropical hydroclimate and methane emissions from the tropical wetlands (Baumgartner et al., 2014).

As expected.

I can give you hundreds of links showing that DO events changed precipitation patterns and vegetation significantly all over the world, but they are of too low resolution, hundreds of years.
To asses the impact on civilization we need a resolution of decades. That simply doesn't exist.

So we are left wondering, if there was a sedentary, global civilization, who enjoyed 10,000 years of relative climate stability  and built their infrastructure for the parameters of their stable climate, would it survive climate change at the scale of a DO event?

The answer is a resounding no. Holocene climatic changes that were of much less magnitude than the changes that happenned during DO events have been responsible for the disappearance of entire civilizations, they have cause wars and they have cause famine.  To assume that the much more abrupt changes of an event similar to a DO will not have a negative effect on civilization is absurd. However, it is mentally comforting.


Quote
5. A BOE is much worse than a DO, with much farther reaching consequences.

See my previous response on why a BOE is much worse than a DO event. DO events were largely in part because of changes in arctic sea ice, and they had the protection of icesheets. A DO event would have ended civilization.  A BOE will end civilization and large part of current nature.  Nature will most certainly reassert itself after sometime.  To an observer in the future it will be like nothing ever happened. To the ones that lived the changes it will suck.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 03:19:25 PM
Arctic Amplification to demonstrate that the changes happen during the same time frame but with lower amplitude the farther we get from the Pole.

This image demonstrates the changes in temperature, not the changes in climate. Huge difference.

Quote
The Arctic has already warmer 2-6 C during winter vs the 1950-80 baseline while NH midlatitudes warmed 1-2 C, and the global average is up 0,8 C on this timeframe

And the 6th mass extinction is well under way, with dramatic changes in local climate just starting to show up. As it gets warmer, it all accelerates.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on June 30, 2019, 04:18:19 PM
I can give you hundreds of links showing that DO events changed precipitation patterns and vegetation significantly all over the world, but they are of too low resolution, hundreds of years.
To asses the impact on civilization we need a resolution of decades. That simply doesn't exist.

DO events are certainly dramatic and I expect large falls in food production. Question is how much: A 75% fall or more and I would agree civilisation collapse is likely. However, I haven't seen anything from you to indicate it will be more than say a 25%-50% fall in production. We waste half our food production and if a civilisation threat appeared I don't see why we can't cut the waste to ~3% or so and avoid civilisation collapse. In addition, over a period of a few years there will be some adaptation to new emerging conditions. We would put more effort into growing food in more locations and doing more to protect crops from pretty bad conditions even if we cannot protect from the worst. The worst conditions will get much more common but they still won't be anywhere near everywhere, all the time.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on June 30, 2019, 04:43:15 PM
 We would put more effort into growing food in more locations and doing more to protect crops from pretty bad conditions even if we cannot protect from the worst?

Why would be protect our crops? The line is that we shouldn't fear famine because we currently over produce and the changes in climate will be a minor grievance. The problem is for 2100, for brown people, in third world countries.

If the line was, "we better protect our food because climate change might take it away", then maybe. But the line is "Don't worry, I have enough food".

Now, I know that as these events occur more often and with more intensity more people will jump into action and the panorama changes. But the longer it takes, the more damage and the more difficult to come back. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound cure.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: P-maker on June 30, 2019, 05:08:35 PM
Please remember the following:

1) DO events happened mainly during the last ice age, thus modern analogies are highly uncertain
2) A BOE  - should it happen - will definitely be a game changer, but unprecedented as far as we know
3) The coming influx of moist, warm air through the Bering Sea may be a forewarning of a +4C world

Expect drizzle for weeks, droughts for months and millions of emigrants.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on July 01, 2019, 02:46:30 PM
Folks - VideoGameVet came up with a wonderful (though gloomy) initiative, and you insist on hijacking the thread just to argue between yourselves. Not nice behavior. May I recommend to take this argument elsewhere? Each person may post what they think a +4C scenario will be like, this is just advice for a game, not peer-reviewed science. Whoever wants to argue should post the response in an appropriate thread. VGV will decide the game, science will decide the science.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: gerontocrat on July 01, 2019, 03:19:55 PM
Why theorise when reality is available?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2019/jul/01/its-getting-warmer-wetter-wilder-the-arctic-town-heating-faster-than-anywhere
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on July 01, 2019, 03:30:39 PM
If we had a decadal resolution for DO events we would have more accurate picture for VGV's game, but you are right, it is a bit offtopic. Let me try to make amends.

If the point of the game is to raise awareness, then it is important that it has a good basis in reality, even after artistic freedoms are taken.

4C by 2100 will certainly have an apocalyptic feel but it will miss some very important tipping points that will happen on our way to 4C, ( way before 4C), that may provide a better setting for the game than 4C.

For example a BOE.

A BOE will have similar but worse effects than DO events in the short term. As the world transition from a block of ice on the Arctic ocean during summer to "warm" ocean summers there will be abrupt climate disruptions.  However after sometime, perhaps decades, the climate should reach a new normal. That is the 4C world.

The look of the 4C world depends greatly on the human reaction to abrupt climate change. If we go to war with each other then you get a madmax world. Nuclear winter, followed by resumed warming after particles settle and radiation sticks for millenia.

If we decide to fight for survival and fight climate change instead of each other but we fail anyway, 4C won't be that much different than today except that first world countries will live like third world countries and there won't be third world countries.

SO much change will happen that no geopolitics can be predicted. You imagination will likely suffice.

Things that will become a permanent threat to humans that could serve as game mechanics.

 Heat waves: heatwaves when there is no ice in the summer will be like nothing any human has ever seen.  Temperatures will regularly climb in the 50's in the continental Northern hemisphere with 60's going from unthinkable to rare.

A well equipped traveling party caught in such heat wave will be slow down to a crawl for days or weeks. If they don't have water and refuge they are done in a matter of hours, minutes in the case of extremes. If they have plenty of water they can survive as long as they have refuge from the heat, probably somewhere underground or caves.


Monster snow storms:

This is a problem mostly for the northern most NH. A warm arctic ocean during summer means lots of water vapor.  However warm the Arctic gets during summer, it will cool down to below freezing with the long Polar. This snow will bury entire cities after a BOE but, by 4C, remaining humans may adapt.

It won't be terribly cold, but the snow will be unpassable by current means.


Torrential rains:

We've all seen strong rain. But nothing like what is coming in a warmer world. Take the strongest rainfall you have seen and multiply it by 2 or 3. Rivers will from in flat land in a matter of days, making the terrain unpassable until the rains subside.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: El Cid on July 01, 2019, 04:07:51 PM
Folks - VideoGameVet came up with a wonderful (though gloomy) initiative, and you insist on hijacking the thread just to argue between yourselves.

Oren, you are absolutely right. It is partly my responsibility because although I think that a game like this could raise awareness of the impending dangers, so it could be useful but at the same time I consider it scaremongering. Can we lie for a higher purpose? Should we make a game of a worst case scenario to make the world a better place? I am not sure about the answers.
Nonetheless, this truly is not the thread where we should argue about this. Back to your game VGV!
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on July 01, 2019, 05:16:32 PM
Quick defense. I'm not lying. I don't believe El Cid is lying either. He simply can't accept the difficult reality of climate change, so his brain plays tricks on him. He ignores evidence and uncertainties in favor of a rosy reality. Can't blame him. This is happening at all levels of climate science and human leadership.

It is very easy write a forum post. But to say the things I say here in a scientific conference or journal is an entirely different thing.  Few do it, and the ones that do are shamed for it.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: TerryM on July 03, 2019, 12:46:18 AM
Folks - VideoGameVet came up with a wonderful (though gloomy) initiative, and you insist on hijacking the thread just to argue between yourselves. Not nice behavior. May I recommend to take this argument elsewhere? Each person may post what they think a +4C scenario will be like, this is just advice for a game, not peer-reviewed science. Whoever wants to argue should post the response in an appropriate thread. VGV will decide the game, science will decide the science.
I fully concur and see this as a thread where we can let our imaginations soar, even as we keep a tight rein on our emotions.
Personally I've more questions initially than answers:


How long has the climb to 4c taken. Did the players grew up under terrible conditions or was the rug pulled out from under them within a very short span?
How and where will they cross into Canada. Will Canada exist and attempt to guard her borders?
Does the US exist and does it exert any influence over our merry band of travelers?
Is the electrical grid functioning? If not for how long has it been down?
Why Sault Ste. Marie - and are you locked into it as a destination?


I've been thinking of a Grapes of Wrath scenario where climate change and unhelpful officials stand between the travelers and their destination. When they arrive they find conditions much worse than any they'd previously suffered through.
Does this fit with your vision at all?


You've a wonderful idea.
All My Best
Terry
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on July 26, 2019, 11:50:03 PM
Sorry to have missed some of this, but the game has come along quite a bit.

Here's a website that has my developer blog as well as some images from the game.  I have the "Oregon Trail" part of the game running and am rolling in the visual novel and information aspects of the game.  See more at:

http://TheClimateTrail.com

Some screens:

(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d2fe6410d4afd00010328eb/1563838445705-8YMZ7FMOYZ33OPFB8CPU/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kCpDl4bJSqCzwl_wF5rY_VF7gQa3H78H3Y0txjaiv_0fDoOvxcdMmMKkDsyUqMSsMWxHk725yiiHCCLfrh8O1z5QPOohDIaIeljMHgDF5CVlOqpeNLcJ80NK65_fV7S1UURrlYUo6U3xwNexnyaQGkkNJUCXw2TzaYqAFOV1YWXLAHrY5d348jsnATXBfBzSbQ/fullsizeoutput_62ce.jpeg?format=2500w)

(https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d2fe6410d4afd00010328eb/1563838510902-JEVRGMKC3SO967NIU8EW/ke17ZwdGBToddI8pDm48kCpDl4bJSqCzwl_wF5rY_VF7gQa3H78H3Y0txjaiv_0fDoOvxcdMmMKkDsyUqMSsMWxHk725yiiHCCLfrh8O1z5QPOohDIaIeljMHgDF5CVlOqpeNLcJ80NK65_fV7S1UURrlYUo6U3xwNexnyaQGkkNJUCXw2TzaYqAFOV1YWXLAHrY5d348jsnATXBfBzSbQ/fullsizeoutput_62bc.jpeg?format=2500w)

Thank you.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: kassy on July 27, 2019, 07:54:17 PM
I grew up with the graphically less accomplished BBC B but that screeny instantly gives me a huge +100 nostalgia bonus.  :)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on July 27, 2019, 09:24:17 PM
I grew up with the graphically less accomplished BBC B but that screeny instantly gives me a huge +100 nostalgia bonus.  :)

I used an art team I had worked with in mobile games, they came through with some nice art.

Also the music is by "The Fat Man" (famous game music composer).

One advantage of making the game Really Free is that people will contribute at far lower expense.

Although I could have bought a 2nd Brompton folding bike (for my wife) with the expense on this.

More on why I decided to give it away:

https://www.theclimatetrail.com/development-blog/why-am-i-giving-this-game-away-or-can-a-game-make-you-cry
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 09, 2019, 02:06:23 AM
Video:

https://youtu.be/188XWVOTh5M
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on August 09, 2019, 02:56:14 AM
Looks very interesting.
Some thoughts and ideas:
With all the rain about, a flood should hit from time to time, causing some damage to supplies or health or some delay.
It should be possible at some point to find more sellers of food, not just at the beginning.
It should be possible at some point to find some food in fields or orchards along the way, not just in cities.
The party would probably go to half rations of food when nearing zero, with resulting partial damage.
There should be some risk of attack along the way, with possible damage to supplies or health or morale.
It should be possible to spend a day raising health at the expense of time/food/water.
I thought the sickness passed too quickly.
I thought health improved too quickly when they found food again.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 09, 2019, 07:59:07 PM
Looks very interesting.
Some thoughts and ideas:
With all the rain about, a flood should hit from time to time, causing some damage to supplies or health or some delay.
It should be possible at some point to find more sellers of food, not just at the beginning.
It should be possible at some point to find some food in fields or orchards along the way, not just in cities.
The party would probably go to half rations of food when nearing zero, with resulting partial damage.
There should be some risk of attack along the way, with possible damage to supplies or health or morale.
It should be possible to spend a day raising health at the expense of time/food/water.
I thought the sickness passed too quickly.
I thought health improved too quickly when they found food again.

Yes, there are additional sellers being added at some cities.  There's a 'rest' option in the game already .  Rationing of water and food is also being added.

The game assumes massive wildfires have decimated the landscape.  So no orchids.  Flood idea is interesting as well, maybe tied to the storms.

There is also a character (feral boy) who plays a role in helping the party out IF they do the right thing.

Yes, I think dysentery should last a few days.  Also if you travel during the storm or heatwave, there will be a possibility of serious harm to one of the party members.

The big part remaining is the beginning, the characters need to meet the player and the 'why' needs to happen.

I've been getting some criticism from the game engine person, who is sort of a denier.  He shared this with me:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thirty-years-on-how-well-do-global-warming-predictions-stand-up-1529623442

So I blogged about the game's dystopian future:

https://www.theclimatetrail.com/development-blog/propaganda-and-alarmism-could-it-really-get-this-bad
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game,
Post by: Ken Feldman on August 09, 2019, 08:22:10 PM
You may want to show your denier developer the following:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/30-years-after-hansens-testimony/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/06/30-years-after-hansens-testimony/)

Quote
The first transient climate projections using GCMs are 30 years old this year, and they have stood up remarkably well.

We’ve looked at the skill in the Hansen et al (1988) (pdf) simulations before (back in 2008), and we said at the time that the simulations were skillful and that differences from observations would be clearer with a decade or two’s more data. Well, another decade has passed!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.realclimate.org%2Fimages%2Fh88_proj_vs_real.png&hash=a6555e34bf4ab9c19940318b6557fb80)

Quote
The easiest assessment is the crudest. What were the temperature trends predicted and what were the trends observed? The simulations were run in 1984 or so, and that seems a reasonable beginning date for a trend calculation through to the last full year available, 2017. The modeled changes were as follows:
•Scenario A: 0.33±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)
•Scenario B: 0.28±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)
•Scenario C: 0.16±0.03ºC/decade (95% CI)

The observed changes 1984-2017 are 0.19±0.03ºC/decade (GISTEMP), or 0.21±0.03ºC/decade (Cowtan and Way), lying between Scenario B and C, and notably smaller than Scenario A. Compared to 10 years ago, the uncertainties on the trends have halved, and so the different scenarios are more clearly distinguished. By this measure it is clear that the scenarios bracketed the reality (as they were designed to), but did not match it exactly. Can we say more by looking at the details of what was in the scenarios more specifically? Yes, we can.

BTW, one of the co-authors of the denial piece in the WSJ was Pat Michaels, who is in the pay of Big Oil specifically to write articles denying climate change.

https://skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html (https://skepticalscience.com/patrick-michaels-history-getting-climate-wrong.html)

Quote
Who Is Patrick Michaels, Cato's Contrarian Climate Scientist?

Despite Being One Of A Few Contrarians, Michaels Is Prominent Media Figure. Michaels made about 49 major media appearances from 2007 to July 2011 (13 of them on Fox News), according to a Nexis search. In addition, The Washington Times and Forbes often publish opinion pieces by Michaels and do not disclose his funding from the fossil fuel industry. Yet during that time, Michaels only published four peer-reviewed climate articles. In comparison, 97 percent of the most actively publishing climate researchers agree that "most" of recent warming is manmade, and 84 percent of climate scientists say the public should be told to be worried or "very worried" about climate change. Despite this, USA TODAY, The Washington Post, and CNN all hosted or quoted Patrick Michaels in 2012.

Quote
Michaels Estimated That 40 Percent Of His Funding Comes From Fossil Fuel Industries. In 2010, Patrick Michaels estimated that about 40 percent of his funding comes from fossil fuel industries:


FAREED ZAKARIA, CNN HOST: Can I ask you what percentage of your work is funded by the petroleum industry?

PATRICK MICHAELS: I don't know. Forty percent? I don't know. [CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, 8/15/10, via Think Progress]

Michaels Initially Did Not Disclose His Publication Was Funded By Coal Industry Association. The Society of Environmental Journalists reported in 2007 that Michaels initially did not disclose that World Climate Report, published by Michaels' PR firm New Hope Environmental Services, was partially funded by the Western Fuels Association, an association of coal mining companies and coal-fired utilities:


Michaels' web publication, World Climate Report, and its skeptical predecessors have been heavily funded by coal and electric utility industries with a large financial stake in preventing regulation of greenhouse emissions. In the 1990s, he published World Climate Review without clearly disclosing in the publication itself that it was funded by the Western Fuels Association - until after journalist Bud Ward brought this to light in the Environment Writer newsletter. [Society of Environmental Journalists, 9/19/07] [Western Fuels Association, accessed 7/8/13]
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 09, 2019, 09:05:15 PM
Hey, thanks for that ... but since he created the game platform (Ren'Py) I don't know if I want to trigger his cognitive dissonance :-)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 10, 2019, 02:08:27 AM
I shared it anyway.  Reply was interesting:

That is interesting, to be  honest - though it's interesting that if it wasn't for the three most recent years, we'd consider C to be the right one.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 22, 2019, 03:17:37 PM
The first version of the game has been released.

https://deepstategames.itch.io/the-climate-trail-10
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on August 22, 2019, 09:06:34 PM
feedback:
Spelling errors: Introduction:

greenhouse effect in the atomosphere  should be atmosphere.
Sea level rise flooded most of the costs should be coasts.

In heatwave message should be dangerous not dangerious.

'Not too distant future' and once the ice melted sea level was 80m higher in past tense sounds rather weird, it is going to take centuries before all the ice melts. 100 years since Vietnam is not long enough for all of East Antarctica or even Greenland to have already melted. 4 meters by 2070 and another 75m to come would still fit the 'worse than thought' narrative and be more realistic.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 23, 2019, 06:19:28 PM
Revision uploaded on the typos.  Thank you.

feedback:
Spelling errors: Introduction:

greenhouse effect in the atomosphere  should be atmosphere.
Sea level rise flooded most of the costs should be coasts.

In heatwave message should be dangerous not dangerious.

'Not too distant future' and once the ice melted sea level was 80m higher in past tense sounds rather weird, it is going to take centuries before all the ice melts. 100 years since Vietnam is not long enough for all of East Antarctica or even Greenland to have already melted. 4 meters by 2070 and another 75m to come would still fit the 'worse than thought' narrative and be more realistic.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: crandles on August 23, 2019, 07:01:20 PM
My first thought was cities would be first places to run out of food. I suppose some people might hide cache of food then die without a second person knowing about it.

I would have expected people attempting to farm and perhaps others along way who would be willing to trade. Rather than fixed prices, they would vary quite dramatically depending on the weather the location has had, which may be different to the weather travellers experienced. Being able to trade at advantageous prices seems a more realistic route to success than being lucky in finding stuff.

I didn't pay close attention to whether distance travelled each day depended on weight being carried. Did it?

Being allowed or forced to use more water in heatwave to stop heat exhaustion having more effect on health seemed an obvious effect missed (unless it was me that missed it).

Seeds as money. Sounds sensible (valuable and lightweight) but I wonder if there is a problem: How do you tell the difference between seeds well looked after and likely to grow from seeds that will fail to germinate?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 27, 2019, 07:53:03 PM
Distance traveled is based on food/water rations and morale.  I could factor in weight, but the game is difficult as it is.

I generalized the predictions on sea-level rise (no specific claims), added a scrolling map, and have the current Amazon situation mentioned in the intro.

Latest video: https://youtu.be/u2g4TlHX9ck

Free download: http://TheClimateTrail.com

Thoughts on who should know about the game and how to contact them would be appreciated.

Thank you.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: TerryM on August 27, 2019, 10:00:27 PM

Thoughts on who should know about the game and how to contact them would be appreciated.

Thank you.


It's usually about board games - but the times are changing.


https://mensamindgames.com/ (https://mensamindgames.com/)


The publicity's mind blowing.
Join the group if possible.


Mensa Canada has on occasion introduced new/unique games at Annual Gatherings.


If you run into problems let me know. (WRT entering the game - not taking the test) I've some sway with the Canadian group, and the wife still has some standing in the US.


Good Luck (it's still needed)
Terry
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on August 27, 2019, 10:42:43 PM
I played the game at the 4C level and it was quite frustrating. 9 tries to find food and water in cities, 9 consecutive failures. Ended up dead of course... I think gameplay would be more attractive with a bit more balance on the probabilities.
The game itself was quite captivating, but failure after failure detracted from the experience.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 28, 2019, 08:51:58 PM
I played the game at the 4C level and it was quite frustrating. 9 tries to find food and water in cities, 9 consecutive failures. Ended up dead of course... I think gameplay would be more attractive with a bit more balance on the probabilities.
The game itself was quite captivating, but failure after failure detracted from the experience.

I can adjust the levels (4, 5, and 6ºC) ... Of course, I complete the 4º level every time, but I'll make a shift and allow the 4º level to be easier.

The key to success in the game is the use of rationing when supplies are limited, reserving 'funds' for the 2nd store and being 'kind.' (I don't want to spoil that moment for others).  Also one has to be strategic about when to obtain less than ideal water.

Thanks for the feedback.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 28, 2019, 08:53:03 PM

Thoughts on who should know about the game and how to contact them would be appreciated.

Thank you.


It's usually about board games - but the times are changing.


https://mensamindgames.com/ (https://mensamindgames.com/)


The publicity's mind blowing.
Join the group if possible.


Mensa Canada has on occasion introduced new/unique games at Annual Gatherings.


If you run into problems let me know. (WRT entering the game - not taking the test) I've some sway with the Canadian group, and the wife still has some standing in the US.


Good Luck (it's still needed)
Terry

Thank you.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 28, 2019, 10:47:55 PM
Did a minor revision, ran everything past Grammerly.  Multiple typos caught and fixed.

I also did some playthroughs on level 4ºC, and if you take the hints ... you can get to Canada pretty easily.

Keep at it.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on August 28, 2019, 11:21:56 PM
Will do!
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 30, 2019, 12:41:20 AM
Now that the "lungs of the planet" myth has been exposed, what would be correct to say about the role of the Amazon in global climate?

That it serves (served?) as a carbon-sink helping to reduce the CO2 levels?

Thanks in advance.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Richard Rathbone on August 30, 2019, 03:58:29 PM
Forests are a carbon store. Burning them releases that store into the atmosphere. Allowing them to regrow pulls carbon out of the atmosphere to fill up that store. Leaving a mature forest in place doesn't change CO2 levels either way.

The Amazon forest is extremely important for regional climate. It creates a lot of its own rainfall and if enough of it is chopped down, it will make the climate too dry for the rest to survive and the remainder will go up in smoke whatever people do. The global effect is the CO2 from it all burning, but it will have pretty dire regional effects from drought too.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on August 30, 2019, 09:00:25 PM
Forests are a carbon store. Burning them releases that store into the atmosphere. Allowing them to regrow pulls carbon out of the atmosphere to fill up that store. Leaving a mature forest in place doesn't change CO2 levels either way.

The Amazon forest is extremely important for regional climate. It creates a lot of its own rainfall and if enough of it is chopped down, it will make the climate too dry for the rest to survive and the remainder will go up in smoke whatever people do. The global effect is the CO2 from it all burning, but it will have pretty dire regional effects from drought too.

Excellent.  Thank you.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: morganism on August 31, 2019, 01:42:59 AM
Actually, they found heat stress causes forests to be carbon emitters, even without fires, IIRC. One paper said that if you lose 20% of a forest, it won't come back.

I would think a farmers almanac would be a pretty hot trade item, along with portable sundials.

Govt will only bring supplies to midsize cities, they want to empty out large ones, but most plans i have seen hav Gov deploying supplies to freeways running into mid size cities near Nat Guard deployments. Keeps folks moving, instead of looting and burning out those cities that are still functional.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Archimid on August 31, 2019, 07:12:17 PM
Forests are a carbon store. Burning them releases that store into the atmosphere. Allowing them to regrow pulls carbon out of the atmosphere to fill up that store. Leaving a mature forest in place doesn't change CO2 levels either way.

So the questions are:

How fast can a forest burn? 
how fast can a mature forest reform?

How to account for the extra CO2 in terms of gross quantity released, how fast it will be reduced and in terms of decreased role in the carbon cycle?

And lastly, how do you guarantee that a forest returns?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on September 04, 2019, 01:40:35 AM
I managed to get the game running on my iPhone, which is complex (XCODE etc.).

That is good news.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on September 09, 2019, 06:55:26 PM
Version 1.3 released.  Bug fixes and some info from 350.org.

iPhone version in test.

http://TheClimateTrail.com
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on September 16, 2019, 06:39:10 PM
Game is in review at Apple.  Android versions to follow.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: gerontocrat on September 16, 2019, 07:01:20 PM
Forests are a carbon store. Burning them releases that store into the atmosphere. Allowing them to regrow pulls carbon out of the atmosphere to fill up that store. Leaving a mature forest in place doesn't change CO2 levels either way.

So the questions are:

How fast can a forest burn? 
how fast can a mature forest reform?

How to account for the extra CO2 in terms of gross quantity released, how fast it will be reduced and in terms of decreased role in the carbon cycle?

And lastly, how do you guarantee that a forest returns?
Leaving a mature forest in place doesn't change CO2 levels either way. That ain't necessarily so.

There are forests, e.g. in the Congo, Indonesia and I guess part of the Amazon, where dead trees and foliage become part of the soggy forest floor and have created huge carbon reserves in the form of peat**. So that mature forest continues to sequester carbon for many thousands of years. Those forests are also a valuable source of oxygen.

When a forest burns it can, and sometimes does, set the peat alight and it continues to burn indefinitely, often invisible on the surface, returning that carbon to the atmosphere as CO2.

By the way, in reply to the question how fast can a mature forest reform? the answer is sometimes - NEVER.
__________________________________________
**That was the beginning of coal,  carboniferous swamps of giant ferns etc.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on September 30, 2019, 06:55:19 PM
Apple approved the game.  Out for iPhone and iPad.

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/the-climate-trail/id1479119216
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: blumenkraft on September 30, 2019, 07:13:23 PM
Cool! Congrats! :D
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: kassy on October 26, 2019, 09:25:28 AM
Some press for the game:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-7614859/Video-game-tests-skills-climate-change-apocalypse.html
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 26, 2019, 06:23:33 PM
Tried it and didn't even get half-way (of course I tried the hardest setting).
Any strategy tips, like what I should focus on?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: kassy on October 27, 2019, 10:12:54 AM
VGV said this in post 80:

The key to success in the game is the use of rationing when supplies are limited, reserving 'funds' for the 2nd store and being 'kind.' (I don't want to spoil that moment for others).  Also one has to be strategic about when to obtain less than ideal water.

And maybe just drop the difficulty setting a bit.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on October 28, 2019, 11:41:37 PM
Tried it and didn't even get half-way (of course I tried the hardest setting).
Any strategy tips, like what I should focus on?

People HAVE solved the 6ºC level.

I am not one of them.

Play at 4ºC, it's much much easier.

Best headline for a game review:

The Climate Trail is like Oregon Trail set in a post-apocalyptic hellscape (https://gamefreaks365.com/the-climate-trail-is-like-oregon-trail-set-in-a-post-apocalyptic-hellscape/)
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 29, 2019, 01:34:27 AM
When people start dying, maybe you could add a Donner option for the survivors.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on October 29, 2019, 09:21:40 AM
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F%7Emhs119%2FTemperature%2F1880-1920base.png&hash=5b78b3f8407c930a7728c68a8e9cd0d9)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.columbia.edu%2F%7Emhs119%2FTemperature%2FT.1990-2019vs1880-1920.png&hash=1fa26762ff88fa37bbc6954866cfca91)

A graphic illustration of the acceleration of warming.

Over the past 150 years the rate of warming is less than 0.1 degrees per year

After 1970 the rate rose to 0.18 degrees per decade, in the 21st century the speed has grown to 0.23 degrees per decade. In the current decade, the rate is already 0.37 degrees per decade.

It's like the launch of a space rocket.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: Pmt111500 on October 29, 2019, 12:37:24 PM
And once Arctic is energetic enough to shed it's ice cover in august or july we'll see the next step of speeding up, I'd say. A rather realistic timeperiod for the game could be as early as 2060s. The harder levels late in the century or maybe even 2100s.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on October 29, 2019, 03:40:47 PM
Well I'm glad I won't be around by 2100, as I found the game too hard even at 4oC...
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 04, 2019, 06:42:49 AM
ENSO index remains in neutral phase:

(https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/img/meiv2.timeseries.png)

But this year is already competing with 2016 for the title of warmest.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0.58 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0.54 С to norm 1981-2010 years


The planet is entering a new phase of accelerating warming
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on November 07, 2019, 02:44:47 AM
I was interviewed about the game by The Weather Channel on Monday:

Interview: https://youtu.be/vcO2FFJmFmg
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on November 07, 2019, 02:46:17 AM
Well I'm glad I won't be around by 2100, as I found the game too hard even at 4oC...

Hint: You can severely ration until someone gets hurt, then adjust that and when they are better ration again.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on November 07, 2019, 04:32:29 AM
Please create a global survival / first person shoot game, where every person on earth get only one "life" to play with.

This will help explain the situation.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on December 18, 2019, 01:23:41 AM
This is the best climate curriculum I have found:

https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/introduction/

Does anyone have a contact there?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on January 16, 2020, 12:23:11 AM
This is the best climate curriculum I have found:

https://www.climatecommunication.org/climate/introduction/

Does anyone have a contact there?

Climate Communications is on board, good people.

Latest coverage of the game: https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/the-climate-trail-survival-game-pits-players-against-climate-catastrophe/
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on January 22, 2020, 12:59:11 AM
I'm getting interviewed by NPR this Friday.  My goal is to get them to realize that worse case scenarios aren't impossible (BOE, >35ºC Wetbulb, Permafrost melt etc.) and even at low probabilities, cause for concern.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on January 22, 2020, 02:31:44 AM
Keep up the good fight VGV.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: dnem on January 22, 2020, 12:44:40 PM
What show will you be on VGV? Science Friday?
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on January 26, 2020, 09:34:18 PM
What show will you be on VGV? Science Friday?

KPBS, Midday Edition, already recorded ... will be on next week.

Also:

The Climate Trail gets covered in this podcast at 23:30. https://eaarthfeelspodcast.com/episode-31-will-australia-climate-crisis-be-enough-to-convince-the-world-to-act/
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on January 26, 2020, 09:37:19 PM
Excellent review of using the game in a classroom. I’m adding a climate reference to the game (thanks to Climate Communications) with hyperlinks from character conversations. More gameplay elements (hidden object etc) as well.

https://blogs.agu.org/geoedtrek/2020/01/24/climate-trail/
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on February 06, 2020, 07:31:40 PM
NPR Interview: https://www.kpbs.org/news/2020/feb/05/youve-heard-oregon-trail-what-about-climate-trail/
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on February 28, 2020, 12:15:07 AM
The 2.0 version of The Climate Trail (http://TheClimateTrail.com) is now out for all platforms.  I've incorporated 60 screens of climate information courtesy of ClimateCommunication.org (with some of the items updated to current stats).  Technical terms are hypertexted from the "climate book" and character dialogs.  There's more game activities (hidden object game) as well.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on March 06, 2020, 12:28:13 AM
Good expose on how energy companies are spending to push climate misinformation in the classroom:

https://heated.world/p/the-fossil-fuel-industrys-public

The fossil fuel industry's public school takeover
Big Oil is pouring millions of dollars into creating pro-fossil fuel classroom content for children across the country.

Because of this I decided to raise $$$ to reach out to schools nationwide:

https://www.gofundme.com/f/the-climate-trail-changing-hearts-and-minds
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on July 22, 2020, 09:46:26 PM
Just wanted to share some good news.  The Climate Trail (game and eBook) won a Bronze award at the Serious Play 2020 event in the non-profit category.  More details here:

https://seriousplayconf.com/july-8-2020-11-games-created-for-use-in-corporate-or-non-profit-training-programs-win-awards-in-serious-play-competition/

Also here’s a link to my presentation at Serious Play:

https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1oBI0Hr9EABvhsbpvlo8CoI8rrBugn1k8VUhX5w23CYw/edit?usp=sharing

I am committed to working with schools to help them reach their climate curriculum goals.  This is why I am giving away The Climate Trail and with the help of ClimateCommunication.org have included a climate eBook into the release.

For more info please see http://TheClimateTrail.com
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: oren on July 23, 2020, 12:04:35 AM
Nice! Thanks for the update VGV.
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: etienne on July 23, 2020, 07:09:54 AM
I just tried the game. I found it ok but maybe a little bit monotonous. I don't know the Oregon Trail game so I can't compare, but I would add more survivors, more shops... along the way. Maybe places where it would be possible to work to get some more food, groups that could be joined for a part of the trip, springs where water could be collected.
I died at about 300 miles of Canada, and only met a feral boy. It would be interesting to be able to ask to other survivors how much miles there are to the next supply shop, what happened in their area... if some people survived in Atlanta, there is no reason that everybody left Detroit. Are there no rivers where boats are required to go on the other side...
Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: etienne on July 23, 2020, 07:14:20 AM
Time doesn't seem to be an issue. Maybe it could be interesting to start the trip in October and the arrival would have to be before April otherwise there would be too many heat waves and not enough rain anymore.

Title: Re: Working on (free) Climate Themed Game, advice on a post 4ºC world looks like?
Post by: VideoGameVet on October 14, 2020, 08:55:46 PM
Time doesn't seem to be an issue. Maybe it could be interesting to start the trip in October and the arrival would have to be before April otherwise there would be too many heat waves and not enough rain anymore.

It's a valid point.  Thanks.

The reason for the lack of characters is that my biggest expense is the art (I did all the coding).  I managed to produce this for about $3k.

A few months ago I was hired to run the game division of a pretty decent sized company.  So not much time for this, but in a way doing The Climate Trail may have helped me get hired in the first place.

Climate related note:  I commute once a week from the San Diego area to Los Angeles, as I did from 2018-2020 (Feb.).  Since Amtrak isn't an option (wife is convinced that she got COVID in Feb. from whatever I caught from a sick coughing passenger on my last train trip), I ended up getting an electric car.  Still use a bicycle to get around when I'm here.