Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Juan C. García on July 01, 2019, 04:57:01 AM

Title: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 01, 2019, 04:57:01 AM
ATTENTION: There are two polls on the ASIF. This one is for NSIDC sea ice extent monthly minimum or September average (which is also used for the SIPN sea ice outlook), the other is for JAXA sea ice extent daily minimum (provided by JAXA (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP).
Make sure you are aware of the difference before voting.

These are the September averages on 2000-2018 (in millions km2):

   Year          Extent
                10^6 km2
1980's Avg.   7.21
1990's Avg.   6.66
2000's Avg.   5.65
2010's Avg.   4.68
2000             6.25
2001             6.73
2002             5.83
2003             6.12
2004             5.98
2005             5.50
2006             5.86
2007             4.27
2008             4.69
2009             5.26
2010             4.87
2011             4.56
2012             3.57
2013             5.21
2014             5.22
2015             4.62
2016             4.53
2017             4.82
2018             4.71

From lowest to highest:
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Lord M Vader on July 01, 2019, 05:12:19 AM
As first böter, I think we likely will be in the orange 4,00-4,50. Depending on how July unfolds I night bin den one step at next time for voting.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Rich on July 01, 2019, 05:49:39 AM
3.5 - 4.0
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 01, 2019, 05:56:29 AM
Going up one bin on this poll.
Now 4.0-4.5
I have 10 days to change my mind.  8)


PS: I forgot to activate the "REMOVE VOTE" option.
Can Neven or DungeonMaster help us activating it?
Thank you!  :)

<edit Neven: done.>
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Paddy on July 01, 2019, 03:26:54 PM
Sticking to 4.25 - 4.75 for now.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Stephan on July 01, 2019, 04:36:33 PM
My guess is 4.25 ± 0.25 M km²
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 01, 2019, 05:08:14 PM
Wait, i'm the only one voted "Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km2"??

That's the winning bin though!
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Sterks on July 01, 2019, 07:10:41 PM
3.5 - 4.0
+1, to be consistent with my vote in the Jaxa thread
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: passenger66 on July 01, 2019, 09:11:37 PM
I guess 3.5 and record low PIOMAS.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: petm on July 01, 2019, 09:53:23 PM
3.5 - 4
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Paddy on July 06, 2019, 09:27:36 AM
Gone down a half step to 4 - 4.5. Thinking about going lower again if high rates of loss continue.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: gerontocrat on July 06, 2019, 05:34:13 PM
4 to 4.5.
2nd lowest a bit below 2007.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 06, 2019, 05:43:37 PM
Going back to 3.75-4.25M km2.
The bet is that 2019 will be below 2007.
Kind of difficult bet, because 2007 was slow on starting the freeze at the 2nd half of September.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: icefisher on July 06, 2019, 09:35:21 PM
4.487 average so 3rd place just ahead of 2016.  Expecting 10-12 days small daily movements up and down around the minimum.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: kynde on July 07, 2019, 10:07:29 AM
3.5 - 4.0

In spite of the high albedo potential and all the momentum, I'm guessing it'll fall short from 2012 as I'm assuming:
- odds for a GAC are still relatively low
- supposedly the weather is about to take turn to something a bit closer to normal
- the accumulated/dispersed ice in North Atlantic and even in Beaufort will delay melt and reduce albedo potential in said regions

But admittedly this year there's plenty potential still to swing in either direction.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: CameraMan on July 07, 2019, 06:29:13 PM
Staying with 3.75 and 4.25
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: DavidR on July 08, 2019, 07:15:37 AM
Moved down to  3.75 to 4.25.  It looks like a result below 2007 is now most likely with 80N+ temperatures still well above anything in the past 10 years.  If 2019 keeps pace with  2011-2013 over the next 4 days,  I will go  lower.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: magnamentis on July 08, 2019, 08:54:22 PM
3.5 - 4.0

In spite of the high albedo potential and all the momentum, I'm guessing it'll fall short from 2012 as I'm assuming:
- odds for a GAC are still relatively low
- supposedly the weather is about to take turn to something a bit closer to normal
- the accumulated/dispersed ice in North Atlantic and even in Beaufort will delay melt and reduce albedo potential in said regions

But admittedly this year there's plenty potential still to swing in either direction.

2019 has started to fall away from 2012 now.

it's quite easy ot see when the GAC started and how much it made 2012 fall away from the pack.

now what you can do is to look how much 2019 will fall below 2012 until august. if the difference between 2012 and 2019 at the date when the GAC started in 2012 is around or larger than the impact of the GAC in total, we won't need GAC and if we are only slightly less far away on that date it won't take a GAC, a SAC (small artic cyclone) or any other similar event will finish the ice off.

last but not least we have definitely warmer temps in the water, increased humidity and energy in the air and more heat at depth. depending on which if not all of those factors will come into effect during the next 45 days, we won't need any outstanding event at all.

further, even if we come above 2012 in mid august, that does not mean that we can't fall back below thereafter. after all this melting season is quite regular, few long and large cliffs and few long and significant stalls. this means if that continues and we shall draw the line till mid august and a bit beyond, we again can be lowest at the end of august.

let's see, nothing is certain, this is just one possible way to see things, life will tell the true story
as always ;) ;)
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Neven on July 09, 2019, 01:01:46 PM
I believe that the 2012 record can be broken, and so I have no choice but to choose the bin that 2012 is in: Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 10, 2019, 03:45:19 AM
Only one day to vote or change your vote.  8)
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: BenB on July 10, 2019, 07:35:14 PM
Went for 3.25-3.75, but anywhere in the range 3-4 is reasonably likely, in my view.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: slow wing on July 11, 2019, 12:01:47 PM
Missed the time cut-off but would have gone "Between 3.50 and 4.00 million km^2". Like last month, that's 1 bin higher thanmy daily minimum prediction (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2778.msg212636.html#msg212636).
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Klondike Kat on July 22, 2019, 03:54:42 PM
Based on past melt seasons, we just passed the average date at which two-thirds of the melt has occurred.  The 2019 melt to date has been 7.34m sq km.  The winter maximum was 14.777m.  Using this [rather crude] metric, the expected annual 2019 melt will come in ~11m sq km (second higher after 2012).  That would put the minimum at just under 3.8m (second lowest), and the September average close to 4 million sq. km.
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: Rob Dekker on October 12, 2019, 09:31:22 AM
End result of the NSIDC Sep. average sea ice extent was 4.32 million km^2 :
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/monthly/data/N_09_extent_v3.0.csv

This is very close to the July (based on June data) ARCUS Sea Ice Prediction Network median of 4.28 million km^2 :
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/july

And not too far from our own ASIF prediction (3.75 to 4.25 million km^2).

Thanks everybody !
Title: Re: NSIDC 2019 Arctic SIE September average: July poll
Post by: jdallen on October 15, 2019, 01:52:57 AM
And not too far from our own ASIF prediction (3.75 to 4.25 million km^2).
*Dang*.

One bucket too low.