Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Rich on July 12, 2019, 02:59:22 AM

Title: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 12, 2019, 02:59:22 AM
The intention in creating this thread is to share ideas that will promote individual or community survival in the event that environmental degradation lead to a collapse of some important societal functions.

It's more or less a "What if" scenario we in which a future catastrophe is survivable.

I'm not a moderator here, so I can't tell people what to post or not post. I would ask that people not come along and say that prepping in general is a waste of time. I don't want to deligitimize that argument, just work under the assumption that we will be in a situation where preparation matters.

Some basic assumptions I would offer in the future scenario is that there will be interruptions or losses of basic necessities like food or electricity. If you live in a densely populated region and lots of people are competing for the same thing, that's not good.

The vision is that you'll need to build a community that is self reliant and off-grid with a big advantage if you have connectivity and cooperation to similar communities.

Things like food supplies and storage, defense, fuel supplies (for vehicles / equipment) power generation, medical supplies, book libraries, communications ability, etc. all seem like basic things a community needs to have.

Being part of an extended community that has advanced shared capability such as aircraft maintenance and operation or a hospital would obviously be advantageous.

I'm idea mining here. I'm personally kinda clueless about survivalism, but I have a hunch that I need to adapt.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 12, 2019, 03:02:33 AM
If we reach that point, the survival of the most barbarian is assured...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on July 12, 2019, 03:07:26 AM
If society truly collapsed, all the nuclear reactors would meltdown and the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable within weeks, and the Southern Hemisphere would probably follow within a few months. So you would probably just be dead.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 12, 2019, 05:54:59 AM
Simultaneous meltdown of all reactors would not come close to killing all humanity in either hemisphere. Catastrophe, yes. Extinction, far from it.

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on July 12, 2019, 06:37:58 AM
Simultaneous meltdown of all reactors would not come close to killing all humanity in either hemisphere. Catastrophe, yes. Extinction, far from it.

sidd
IDK. There are 100s and 100s of reactors... gradual meltdowns could actually be worse than simultaneous.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 12, 2019, 07:12:33 AM
The intention in creating this thread is to share ideas that will promote individual or community survival
<snippage>

Individualism, consumerism and TV/social media has killed of any real community-sense in my view (especially in the 'western world').
If an individual has a bit of money, a bit of land/garden and her/his own house it is possible to be somewhat independent.

What are the options of the majority of the people, the poor, who are not in this position of ownership and affluence? I am poor and people like me don't have money except for the basics. Just survival. I think it is important and just to take the silent invisible majority in consideration. And the infirm.

A good survival trait would be having old fashioned peasant skills & tools, horses and morality etc. Move to lower tech and you'll be less vulnerable. Technological progress has been the road to destruction obviously (global resource hunger).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 07:29:57 AM
You will need some guns and ammo, a garden, and some gold and silver could be usefull. And pray they don't ruin all sources of water before it happens. The guns and ammo you will need, because no matter how much you prep, if you can not defend it. Than somebody els will take it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on July 12, 2019, 07:39:52 AM
Why, exactly, do you want to survive?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on July 12, 2019, 08:17:08 AM
Why, exactly, do you want to survive?

Fear of death.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alison on July 12, 2019, 10:00:50 AM
https://youtu.be/r9r9daGEy3E
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 12, 2019, 10:22:58 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tony Mcleod on July 12, 2019, 10:27:45 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.

Not so fast. Is the miltary going to be on horseback?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 12, 2019, 10:30:35 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.

This is true only for earthly asylum. But if you build a colony on Mars, the problem of the military and marauders disappears. Elon Musk and SpaceX develop exactly this direction.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 11:27:13 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.
   

And how do you know at wich level they will be able to organise, these armed groups and the military ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 12, 2019, 11:27:41 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.

Not so fast. Is the miltary going to be on horseback?

No, they have  huge reserves of gasoline. They will ride tanks. And even without gas, how will you resist a heavy infantry platoon?

All we can do is try to be more and more sustainable NOW and not preparing for some imagined MadMaxWorld which we will not survive anyway
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 12, 2019, 11:29:01 AM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.
   

And how do you know at wich level they will be able to organise, these armed groups and the military ?

I don't need to know that. 20 machineguns against my family (even if all of us are armed). What chance would we have???

Forget MadMax, do something for the future NOW
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 11:57:27 AM
El Cid, it's not just your family. If they are able to organise, if they leave there family behind to go to the barracks. They will meet hundreds of families. Maybe they run out of bullets after the 10th family. Who will know ? Most people will only be able to do simple things. And going to Mars is not one of them.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2019, 12:40:24 PM
If civilization collapses - which I do not believe - there is no amount of prepping that will save your ass. In that case the military and armed groups take over, and however you prepare, (garden, animals, weapons, clean watersource etc) all will be taken away from you.
   

And how do you know at wich level they will be able to organise, these armed groups and the military ?
I know because I am organising one. Gerontocrat rules, OK. Geddit?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 12, 2019, 12:46:23 PM
Let's say that you are in a group and a bear attacks your group.  To escape, you don't have to outrun the bear, only the slowest person in the group.

It is the same with collpase, specially in the first world. All food will not disappear over night, there will be food but less food. Same with water. Same with fuel.

So what you need is:

1. Water: If money was no object I would buy an Solar Atmospheric water generator.  This way as long as the sun comes out, you will have drinking water. Else, water reserves will do for a while but you need to fins a way to replenish them. I can collect and store rainwater for this. 

2. Energy: You need to become energy independent, or as close to it as possible. Solar panels and batteries will keep your refrigerator powered and your lights on for decades, although if you use lights at night, you should cover the windows, or else you become a target.

3. Food: Always keep a few months worth of food in your home. Start a home garden with high calorie plants. Raise chickens. It will be incredibly hard to grow enough food to feed yourself year round, but any calorie that you can grow makes you a bit faster. Less food that you have to acquire.

4. Security. You need a weapon and ammo. You must have a plan to secure your perimeter. Keep your hoard a secret.

5. Neighbor relations: Your neighbor will either help you protect your stuff or try to take it away.  You must sort that out before collapse picks up speed.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 12, 2019, 12:51:58 PM
I guess this is a hard thread to start and hope that people don't get carried away by going uber extreme.

Let's try and keep it simple and start with a scenario where you assume you can defend yourself.

Imagine a world that shrinks to 1B people. Who survives and why?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on July 12, 2019, 01:22:07 PM
Kinda re-inventing the wheel here Rich.  There is tons of content on the web about prepping. As someone else mentioned, Reddit is chockablock full of it.  http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/ is pretty entertaining.

If the food stores empty out and can't be restocked, it's gonna sort out into who is armed and who is not pretty fast.  If the grid goes down for many months, there will be multiple nuclear meltdowns.  Sounds like fun, huh?



Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 12, 2019, 02:57:21 PM


What do you do when 'Gerontocrat' comes by with his merry men?
I'd say most people cannot afford to do those things you propose. What will they do?

How would you describe this post-collapse world? Do you find it worth living? Will schools still function? Shops? Moneysystem? It'll only get worse and then of course, the 'new weather' approaching fast.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 12, 2019, 03:58:18 PM
Most people will only be able to do simple things. And going to Mars is not one of them.

With computers, managing a Martian colony will be very easy. Now, even the world's libraries with millions of books easily fit on a simple hard disk.

The main problem is to save the colony of surviving marauders with weapons. Remember the story, all the tombs of great people (Faron, Genghis Khan, Chinese Emperors) with jewels were later looted. Therefore, on Earth it is impossible to create a safe colony of several thousand people. And on Mars is possible.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on July 12, 2019, 05:03:42 PM
If industrial production stops, the subsequent increase of 0.5c gat due to the loss of the aerosol masking effect will prove terminal.

To unleash 50 years of  modern warming in as little as 6 weeks would set off hyper feedbacks leading to things like Canfield oceans.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 12, 2019, 05:09:42 PM


How would you describe this post-collapse world? Do you find it worth living? Will schools still function? Shops? Moneysystem? It'll only get worse and then of course, the 'new weather' approaching fast.

I'm imagining significant population attrition. Poor countries in hot arid regions will be decimated. If a country like India fails, global supply chains will be irreparably damaged and martial law will be declared in many countries to maintain order.

Federal governments will still operate and manage a triage style operation to salvage what they can. Risk management will be key. Grid resources to ensure no nuclear meltdowns will be a top priority if they can be avoided at all.

The feds, military will national guard commandeer and ration the food supply from farm to table.

Proactive people with resources will retreat to remote bunkers with necessary resources and weapons.

Urban food shortages may be quickly resolved by either civilian conflict or starvation. After periods of regional chaos, some kind of equilibrium will settle in. Armed gangs might be able to maintain some local supremacy, but they aren't going to move across significant open territory as long as the military is functional. The firepower and intelligence and advantage is too great.

The government and military will have every interest in maintaining a large functional population for strategic international advantage.

Any border crises at a place like the US / Mexico border will be handled with lethal force. If we have millions of people trying to stream north, it could be a bloodbath.

US command will probably kindly explain to Canadian leadership that they are temporarily subordinate to US needs.

Some regions with limited utility and high maintenance costs may be abandoned. A city like Las Vegas might be shuttered for example as a water / energy hog with no more tourism. South Florida may be abandoned due to Flooding along with New Orleans.

Refugee / work camps will become common. People will be out to work doing all kinds of work from agriculture to levee repair.

Perhaps places in Africa / Middle East / India lose major chunks of population while the US loses half and Canada loses only 20% in a few years. Europe and the rest of Asia lose half as well. You've got 3.5B people.

Climate change continues to progress and sundry environmental / disease outbreaks continue to whittle the population down for another couple of decades until we're down to 1B people concentrated in the N. Hemisphere. Somehow nuclear war is avoided  At this point climate stabilizes and CO2 starts to come down with tech, afforestation and renewables.

You still have cities, hospitals, universities, telecommunications and a sufficient food supply. The environment is a mess but you have pockets of salvageable territory.

It's time to start over.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 12, 2019, 05:18:36 PM
I guess if anyone around here is a preper it's me. My primary goal is experimenting with low energy food production and an effort to depend as little as I can on fossil fuel energy supplies. These goals are mostly an effort to live a life with a smaller carbon footprint but retirement and controlling future expenses by purchasing solar panels, batteries, and energy supplies while I can afford to also play a part in my planning. Paying off the farm would be nice also but honestly Nanning has a real point about affordability of off grid solutions. A farm, solar, batteries, wells, septic, and those things that allow a modern lifestyle unplugged from the grid are expensive, way over a million $.
 I really think the most educational experience for me  was the challenge of feeding my wife and I without going to the store, first for one month and then for a three month period. Anyone can take on this challenge and after you get through it you will either gain some confidence in your abilities to forage and get by on stored dry goods , or give up on self sufficiency  Preparing for an extended period without a store required changing the food I grew in the garden to crops that could be dried and stashed away. Storing wild foods , fishing, growing chickens and maybe a pig or two , planting fruit trees, canning and plant identification are all skills to perfect before TSHTF.
 They are two different things , living a modern lifestyle with off grid renewable energy or preparing for almost zero energy. Living in a mild climate will save lots of effort chopping wood to keep warm . Keeping some iodine drops around and someplace to hole up with a clean water supply are probably all you need in a worst case scenario if you can forage. Knowledge will at that point be far more important than guns or solar panels. And yes Because, I would still want to live .
 
 
 
 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 12, 2019, 05:31:15 PM
I know because I am organising one. Gerontocrat rules, OK. Geddit?

How do i join this group? Sounds OK.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 12, 2019, 05:33:40 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkJCy2r0Uaw
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 06:14:05 PM
Most people will only be able to do simple things. And going to Mars is not one of them.

With computers, managing a Martian colony will be very easy. Now, even the world's libraries with millions of books easily fit on a simple hard disk.

The main problem is to save the colony of surviving marauders with weapons. Remember the story, all the tombs of great people (Faron, Genghis Khan, Chinese Emperors) with jewels were later looted. Therefore, on Earth it is impossible to create a safe colony of several thousand people. And on Mars is possible.


Does Mars has an atmosphere ? And if it would be so easy, than why don't they just manage Earth first .Because if you can create the conditions to create an atmosphere on Mars . Than why don't they create something like that to manage the temperature on this planet. Than global warming is finished.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 12, 2019, 06:45:19 PM
Does Mars has an atmosphere ? And if it would be so easy, than why don't they just manage Earth first .Because if you can create the conditions to create an atmosphere on Mars . Than why don't they create something like that to manage the temperature on this planet. Than global warming is finished.

There is a thin atmosphere on Mars. The problem is there is not enough oxygen. By introducing plants (theoretically) you could have it.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/27/PIA16460_Mars_Atmosphere_Gases_20121102.svg)

On earth, there aren't enough trees to suck the CO2 out of the air to fight climate change.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 12, 2019, 07:12:00 PM
Most people will only be able to do simple things. And going to Mars is not one of them.

With computers, managing a Martian colony will be very easy. Now, even the world's libraries with millions of books easily fit on a simple hard disk.

The main problem is to save the colony of surviving marauders with weapons. Remember the story, all the tombs of great people (Faron, Genghis Khan, Chinese Emperors) with jewels were later looted. Therefore, on Earth it is impossible to create a safe colony of several thousand people. And on Mars is possible.


Does Mars has an atmosphere ? And if it would be so easy, than why don't they just manage Earth first .Because if you can create the conditions to create an atmosphere on Mars . Than why don't they create something like that to manage the temperature on this planet. Than global warming is finished.

Why make the atmosphere for the entire planet? Enough to make the atmosphere in the underground Martian refuge. In it, the colonists will not get any marauders.

Elon Mask is committed to this very concept.

By the way, the first flights of the huge rocket are nearing for the creation of a Martian colony.

https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-elon-musk-starhopper-hover-test-date/

Quote
Eric Ralph
ByEric RalphPosted on July 11, 2019
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced via Twitter that Starhopper’s first untethered hover tests – flying as high as ~20 meters (65 ft) – could be attempted as early as Tuesday, July 16th.

SpaceX engineers and technicians have been working around the clock the last several months to prepare Starhopper for flight and – even more importantly – prepare the company’s next-gen Raptor engine to ensure it is reliable enough to risk losing the Hopper in flight. Neither task is a small challenge, with both pushing SpaceX’s workforce into new and (partially) unfamiliar territory, ranging from Starhopper’s use of steel propellant tanks to Raptor’s adoption of liquid methane and oxygen instead of the kerosene/oxygen or hydrazine SpaceX’s workforce is familiar with

Back in April 2019, SpaceX – having installed Raptor SN02 roughly two weeks prior – static fired Starhopper for the first time ever, simultaneously lifting the massive craft a few inches off the ground as it strained against its tethers. Three and a half months later, SpaceX engineers appear to have finally solved a mechanical resonance (vibration) issue that plagued all Raptors that came before SN06, forcing aborts, limiting test length, and even destroying or damaging engines beyond repair.

As previously discussed on Teslarati, Starhopper’s first true flight tests have been a long time coming. 9m (30 ft) in diameter and perhaps 25m (80 ft) tall, Starhopper is an extremely unusual and visually bizarre test article, effectively acting like a (vaguely) mobile Raptor test stand and a full-fidelity way for SpaceX’s aluminum-focused welding and fabrication crews to gain experience building a moderately functional stainless steel rocket.

Last month, there was some hope that Raptor SN05 would be capable of supporting Starhopper’s first hover tests as early as mid-to-late June, but it’s understood that the vibrational issue described above by Musk damaged the engine during one of its final acceptance tests, delaying Starhopper testing by several weeks. Had that resonance issue been solved months ago, it’s probable that Raptor SN02 could have taken Starhopper directly from its first static fires to untethered flight operations in April.

According to CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX’s Raptor manufacturing team is rapidly moving from a development-focused line to something more like mass-production. Once the design has been more thoroughly pinned down, the production ramp could max out with up to two Raptor engines completed daily, averaging out to an annual production rate of an incredible ~500 engines.

Additionally, Musk tacitly acknowledged that SpaceX’s recent development Raptors likely cost around $2M apiece, but the final mass-production cost could drop as low as $200,000 per engine, almost unfathomable for such a high-performance, cutting-edge engine.

For the time being, SpaceX will be focused on wringing out any subtler design flaws and general bugs in Raptor as the engines are gradually produced and tested at increasing volumes. This includes hop/hover tests like those Starhopper is scheduled to attempt next Tuesday, as well as even wilder ~20-km suborbital flight tests that could come once one or both of SpaceX’s “orbital” Starship prototypes are fully integrated.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 12, 2019, 07:16:56 PM
I guess if anyone around here is a preper it's me...I really think the most educational experience for me  was the challenge of feeding my wife and I without going to the store, first for one month and then for a three month period. Anyone can take on this challenge and after you get through it you will either gain some confidence in your abilities to forage and get by on stored dry goods , or give up on self sufficiency

Well Bruce, I myself never tried your challange but grow potatoes, sweetpotatoes, carrots, apples, nuts garlic, onions. They all keep very well for months and (theoretically) should be enough in themselves if push comes to shove. My grandpa & family lived on potatoes+onions+ goat's milk and apples for a year during WW2 and they did not lose weight or had any other problems by his account. So even without foraging I would think it is manageable, especially if you have some chicken and some goats/sheep.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2019, 07:41:10 PM
I guess if anyone around here is a preper it's me...I really think the most educational experience for me  was the challenge of feeding my wife and I without going to the store, first for one month and then for a three month period. Anyone can take on this challenge and after you get through it you will either gain some confidence in your abilities to forage and get by on stored dry goods , or give up on self sufficiency

Well Bruce, I myself never tried your challange but grow potatoes, sweetpotatoes, carrots, apples, nuts garlic, onions. They all keep very well for months and (theoretically) should be enough in themselves if push comes to shove. My grandpa & family lived on potatoes+onions+ goat's milk and apples for a year during WW2 and they did not lose weight or had any other problems by his account. So even without foraging I would think it is manageable, especially if you have some chicken and some goats/sheep.
City-dwellers in apartment blocks are stuffed, then, as your smallholdings are not going to grow a surplus. You will need a community defence force when the starving city dwellers scour the land for sustenance.

I did work in one African country where the rains failed one year and the maize crop was almost zero in parts of the country. The army units based in the bush were the biggest problem - raiding villages in search of hidden emergency stores. (Fortunately the next year the rains were good).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 07:43:10 PM
Arcticmelt, Is it not better to buy a gun. Than to hide in your grave on Mars. Because that story has something very sad.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 07:47:49 PM
Gerontocrat, if you read these stories about the army in Northern Nigeria. I think they are trained by a foreign force. They use the same tactics as these islamist terrorists. As soon as there are shortages, there will be no government army anymore. Just guys that try to safe their own ass.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 12, 2019, 07:48:39 PM
Arcticmelt, Is it not better to buy a gun. Than to hide in your grave on Mars. Because that story has something very sad.

Your choice with a gun is even sadder. What can you do with a gun against hungry soldiers in tanks with guns. It resembles a scene from the movie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC3IGts3Dyk

On Earth, you physically can not create a safe haven, inaccessible to robbers.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 12, 2019, 07:59:20 PM
That's the problems with guns.

Someone always has a bigger one.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 08:03:24 PM
The story you are telling is about a few 1000 people. So why are you telling it anyway ? Does Alan wants to get more printed money in his pocket. Than he can better move to another solar stelsel. Because all planets in this solar stelsel will have the same fate. When the sun dies, they are all finished. Or is he going to build a new sun ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2019, 08:04:39 PM
That's the problems with guns.

Someone always has a bigger one.
But if you can hang on until they are dead or nearly dead of hunger and disease....

you inherit the world. Lucky you.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 12, 2019, 08:17:40 PM
It's not about the guns itself. If people want to kill eachother. Than they will kill eachother. Just look to Ruanda, they killed 10 % of the population in just a few months, most of them in just a few weeks. And they only had knifes and sticks. In Syria they have all modern weapons from rockets to tanks, and after 8 years of shooting and bombarding 3 % of the population died. Ruanda is or was a more isolated country with not that much recources and a high population density.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aluminium on July 12, 2019, 08:19:57 PM
(https://pp.userapi.com/c851420/v851420358/1696ab/Zj6gFioVD2c.jpg)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ritter on July 12, 2019, 10:33:13 PM

I'm imagining significant population attrition.

[snip]

It's time to start over.

Pretty much nailed it.  :(
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: vox_mundi on July 12, 2019, 11:46:39 PM

   

I'm imagining significant population attrition.

[snip]

It's time to start over.

Pretty much nailed it.  :(
...
Dr. Strangelove: Sir! I have a plan... I would not rule out the chance to preserve a nucleus of human specimens. It would be quite easy...heh, heh...at the bottom of ah...some of our deeper mineshafts. Radioactivity would never penetrate a mine some thousands of feet deep, and in a matter of weeks, sufficient improvements in dwelling space could easily be provided.
President Muffley: How long would you have to stay down there?
Dr. Strangelove: Well let's see now ah...cobalt thorium G....Radioactive halflife of uh,...I would think that uh... possibly uh... one hundred years.
President Muffley: You mean, people could actually stay down there for a hundred years?
Dr. Strangelove: It would not be difficult, Mein Führer! Nuclear reactors could, heh...I'm sorry, Mr. President. Nuclear reactors could provide power almost indefinitely. Greenhouses could maintain plant life. Animals could be bred and slaughtered. A quick survey would have to be made of all the available mine sites in the country, but I would guess that dwelling space for several hundred thousands of our people could easily be provided.
Muffley: Well, I, I would hate to have to decide...who stays up and...who goes down.
Dr. Strangelove: Well, that would not be necessary, Mr. President. It could easily be accomplished with a computer. And a computer could be set and programmed to accept factors from youth, health, sexual fertility, intelligence, and a cross-section of necessary skills. Of course, it would be absolutely vital that our top government and military men be included to foster and impart the required principles of leadership and tradition. Naturally, they would breed prodigiously, eh? There would be much time, and little to do. Ha, ha. But ah, with the proper breeding techniques and a ratio of say, ten females to each male, I would guess that they could then work their way back to the present Gross National Product within say, twenty years.
Muffley: But look here doctor, wouldn't this nucleus of survivors be so grief-stricken and anguished that they'd, well, envy the dead and not want to go on living?
Dr. Strangelove: No, sir...excuse me...When they go down into the mine, everyone would still be alive. There would be no shocking memories, and the prevailing emotion will be one of nostalgia for those left behind, combined with a spirit of bold curiosity for the adventure ahead! [involuntarily gives the Nazi salute and forces it down with his other hand]Ahhh!
General Turgidson: Doctor, you mentioned the ratio of ten women to each man. Now, wouldn't that necessitate the abandonment of the so-called monogamous sexual relationship, I mean, as far as men were concerned?
Dr. Strangelove: Regrettably, yes. But it is, you know, a sacrifice required for the future of the human race. I hasten to add that since each man will be required to do prodigious...service along these lines, the women will have to be selected for their sexual characteristics which will have to be of a highly stimulating nature.
Russian Ambassador: I must confess, you have an astonishingly good idea there, Doctor.

----------------

Aluminium  +1
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Paddy on July 13, 2019, 12:24:17 AM
My prepping has been pretty low key, and as much for the economic damage of Brexit as anything else. But having some staples in reserve and a bit of capacity to provide for yourself gives a certain feeling of security, whether real or imagined.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on July 13, 2019, 12:34:48 AM
I'm not having kids, for one thing.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 13, 2019, 04:14:21 AM
If society truly collapsed, all the nuclear reactors would meltdown and the Northern Hemisphere would be uninhabitable within weeks, and the Southern Hemisphere would probably follow within a few months. So you would probably just be dead.

Chernobyl melted down and 20 km away, things never become uninhabitable. Japan got nuked twice and had a recent meltdown and the island densely populated. The world is large, so even 400 meltdowns down destroy all life.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on July 13, 2019, 12:07:49 PM
What do you do when 'Gerontocrat' comes by with his merry men?

I give him all my spreadsheets.  ;)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 12:33:25 PM
Chernobyl melted down and 20 km away, things never become uninhabitable. Japan got nuked twice and had a recent meltdown and the island densely populated. The world is large, so even 400 meltdowns down destroy all life.

Chernobyl killed ~100k people.

Times 400 that's 40 million deaths.

But the death toll in Chernobyl was so 'low' because they managed to seal it.

And there your theory goes bust. When you have nukes all over the world constantly leaking, it's rather sooner than later before the last one dies painfully.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 01:44:46 PM
What do you do when 'Gerontocrat' comes by with his merry men?

I give him all my spreadsheets.  ;)
Sorry, Neven, but you can't eat spreadsheets...........
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on July 13, 2019, 02:16:31 PM
What do you do when 'Gerontocrat' comes by with his merry men?

I give him all my spreadsheets.  ;)
Sorry, Neven, but you can't eat spreadsheets...........

Do you have any stats to corroborate this? If not, you should prepare them.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 13, 2019, 04:27:35 PM
I think, with tomato sauce and a blender, spreadsheets taste like a hot dog.

Tom Lehrer - We Will All Go Together When We Go - with intro ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIoBrob3bjI
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 05:45:18 PM
I think, with tomato sauce and a blender, spreadsheets taste like a hot dog.

And - since we are Preparing for Collapse
https://youtu.be/VTRHv1I0xig

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 13, 2019, 07:39:09 PM
Doesn't the nutritional value of spreadsheets vary considerably depending on the spread?
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2019, 08:20:49 PM
Doesn't the nutritional value of spreadsheets vary considerably depending on the spread?
Terry
I will make a spreadsheet to evaluate that, including eating the results, so I won't be able to send the report.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: b_lumenkraft on July 13, 2019, 08:25:31 PM
All this spreadsheet talk makes me hungry! [1]

[1] Likely a sentence that has never been formulated ever before in the history of mankind.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 13, 2019, 09:24:12 PM
...
I will make a spreadsheet to evaluate that, including eating the results, so I won't be able to send the report.
Don't you have a dog for that? (or at least, a neighbor's dog?)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 13, 2019, 11:21:13 PM
The best book I have read about collapse (perhaps except the one by Jared Diamond) was "When money dies" (https://www.goldonomic.com/When%20Money%20Dies.pdf) (pdf link). And the city dwellers did raid the farms.
But now the economy is global, supply chains are long, no country and no city is self-sufficient, and everything depends on high maintenance items - computers, satellites, the power grid, dams, nuclear plants. Agriculture depends on technological support. The population is dense. Even if no nuclear war happens (with India starving/becoming unlivable, will they wait quietly for death?), the chances of survival for a city dweller are nil. No food, too many hungry people. Highest survival chances are for those who are the most isolated, living in some forest or mountain or grassland, in low pop density countries, and growing their own food. Solar panels a plus.
Get away from high density countries, especially those in hot climates. Move somewhere isolated and empty. Patagonia? Canada? Wisconsin? Portugal? (Really I have no clue). Is it worth it to give up your current relatively good life, in order to increase survival odds from 0% to 20% in a world not much worth living in? I doubt it.
Don't expect hospitals, airports etc., when civilization is too complex its unwinding will be terrible. In 1500 or 1900 or even 1942 people were much more self sufficient, much less dependent on technology and imports of necessities. In 2040 or 2050 WTSHTF most people will be useless and hopeless in the face of a sudden collapse. It's not as if they will be told to prepare a decade or two in advance.
BTW Rich - I think you are an optimist of sorts, looking at your assumptions.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 13, 2019, 11:50:57 PM
As usual, good post Oren.

My friends and family don't consider me an optimist at all. I'm persona non grata for bringing this shit up.

But I figure an extended family of 50 people with a combined net worth of ~ $1M per person should be able to set aside 3-5% to give the kids and grandkids a chance even if it's less than 50/50.

I'm thinking some place like Saskatchewan. There are some inexpensive foods (like dried beans and rice) that will store for a century if properly stored. That region has petrol and aircraft maintenance and modern accoutrements far from the hungry hordes.

Patagonia would have a good climate, but the scale of suitable climate in the Southern Hemisphere would be much smaller and allow for something much more primitive than the N. Hemisphere.

We're programmed to try and survive. I'm just acting on that programming.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 01:12:16 AM
By the way, the first flights of the huge rocket are nearing for the creation of a Martian colony.

Oh ya, the rocket that blew over in a 40mph wind. I'm sure that thing will take us to Mars. The tortoise beats the hare after-all. 39mph all the way to Mars baby!!!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 01:15:10 AM
Patagonia would have a good climate, but the scale of suitable climate in the Southern Hemisphere would be much smaller and allow for something much more primitive than the N. Hemisphere.

Be honest with yourself. You don't want to try Patagonia cuz it is far away and different. The entire North Hemi ecology will upended. Most of it will burn. Enjoy the dried beans.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 01:29:17 AM
Chernobyl melted down and 20 km away, things never become uninhabitable. Japan got nuked twice and had a recent meltdown and the island densely populated. The world is large, so even 400 meltdowns down destroy all life.

Chernobyl killed ~100k people.

Times 400 that's 40 million deaths.

But the death toll in Chernobyl was so 'low' because they managed to seal it.

And there your theory goes bust. When you have nukes all over the world constantly leaking, it's rather sooner than later before the last one dies painfully.

Japan is less than 1/1000th on the world's landmass. They have had an ongoing meltdown for the past 8 years. 125 million people live in Japan. There is ONE death attributed to the radiation from the meltdown.

Wiki says:
In total nuclear test megatonnage, from 1945 to 1992, 520 atmospheric nuclear explosions (including eight underwater) have been conducted with a total yield of 545 megatons,[14] with a peak occurring in 1961–1962, when 340 megatons were detonated in the atmosphere by the United States and Soviet Union. while the estimated number of underground nuclear tests conducted in the period from 1957 to 1992 is 1,352 explosions with a total yield of 90 Mt.

That is a lot of radiation, and yet life goes on. Your brain may be fried, but the earth is still habitable. I'm not saying that hundreds of meltdowns wouldn't cause serious problems, but the idea that it is a nail in the coffin on humanity is silly.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 14, 2019, 02:12:04 AM
Patagonia would have a good climate, but the scale of suitable climate in the Southern Hemisphere would be much smaller and allow for something much more primitive than the N. Hemisphere.

Be honest with yourself. You don't want to try Patagonia cuz it is far away and different. The entire North Hemi ecology will upended. Most of it will burn. Enjoy the dried beans.

Nope. I'd rather be in a region big enough to support a few hundred million people than 1-2 million people.

Better chance of survival and rebuilding a non-primitive existence.

Lotta amateur mind readers here on ASIF. There should be a training course or something on how to do that with accuracy.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rod on July 14, 2019, 02:23:36 AM
Rich, I have stuck up for you several times this season.  Even when you pissed off A-Team with your ridiculous theories. 

I thought you were actually concerned about Sea ice and learning,  even when you attacked Gerontocrat and others for their contributions. 

Now I’m starting to think you are just here to concern Troll. 

There are plenty of places on Reddit and Facebook to do that. 

You have been way more disruptive than Hyperion ever was.  Please take your BS elsewhere.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 14, 2019, 03:59:57 AM
Rod,

Stop with the amateur mind reading.

I never, ever interacted with A-Team. I had a genuine ignorance of some of the properties of water and Binntho ultimately set me straight. I apologized to the entire forum for using the melting season thread for an ugly learning process that I should have taken to the Stupid Questions thread much earlier.

I'm not responsible for A-Team's personality.

I have consistently in the short-time I've been here expressed my gratitude for the data that Gerontocrat shares. I wasn't happy with the contempt he expressed for people on the melting season thread and suggested he take his criticism to then directly. It seemed like a fair request and there is no lingering bad feeling on my part.

I'm a thinking person. I challenge and question assumptions in order to try and iterate to a better understanding. That might be annoying to people who are motivated to conform.

My motivation in coming to ASIF is to try and understand how AGW and other environmental degradation might change the world much quicker than people are imagining. We're headed for catastrophe (IMO) and it's clear that the world isn't reacting in a timely manner. I'm looking for something more concrete to show that things are coming to a head sooner. But I have to actually believe it and understand it to be true in order to sell it to others.

Arctic sea ice loss and a BOE seems like a potential candidate for contributing to a near-term collapse. So I'm exploring.

It's fascinating stuff. A great forum here. But I'm a challenger of assumptions and conventional thinking.

Right now, I'm challenging the assumption that a BOE is relatively imminent (next 10-15 years) on the grounds that the CAB is a much different layer to bust through than the Arctic Ocean at large. I'm asking questions about the relationship between ocean depth and propagation of heat that I don't see other people asking or explaining.

My opinion about this year's outlook is very similar to Friv's and reflects a perspective that the CAB is a tough nut to crack.

I'm not a mind reader and I make it a habit not to project what other people are thinking. If I have a concern, I tend to ask the other person what they mean.

That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 04:08:39 AM
Rich, I'll try to avoid insults, but it will be difficult. You couldn't be more wrong about your plan. Where to begin?

-The idea that a few hundred million people are required to live a non-primitive life is ridiculous.

-The idea that a few hundred million people are going to move to Saskatchewan in the next decade or two and set up a non-primitive life is absurd.

-Saskatchewan is probably the 2nd worst region in the world (behind central asia) in terms of the amount of climate change likely to occur in the coming decades. (And it is literally the opposite of Patagonia in almost every aspect.)

-(Although totally irrelevant,) the amount of land needed to support a few hundred million people is not large. Patagonia is 7 times larger than Bangladesh, population 170 million. Patagonia is also larger than Saskatchewan. Granted most of Patagonia won't be habitable, but NONE of Saskatchewan will be.

If you are too uppity to live a primitive life, you are pathetic and deserve what you will most certainly get, which is death. You seem a decent fellow, but try to keep an open mind that you may (again) be very wrong about something, before you start throwing ideas around as facts. Cheers.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rod on July 14, 2019, 04:11:27 AM
Rod,

Stop with the amateur mind reading.

....

That said, maybe some people think a newbie should just shut up and listen and not participate until after the world is condemned to a shitty outcome? We can agree to disagree about that.

I don't aspire to be popular and liked by anyone but I'm not doing anything with the intention of pissing anyone else off either. I'm not a troll. An asshole? OK. But not a troll. I'm genuine and transparent (which may be worse depending on your perspective).

Thanks for pointing out that I screwed up the quotation marks in that recent comment. I fixed it asap.

This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up. 

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe, and then pretend to be insulted when people point out your mistakes. 

It has become very disruptive.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 14, 2019, 04:40:19 AM

This is bull shit.  We have all supported your right to post your theories even as a newbie.   I went to war for you with A-team when he tried to shut you up. 

I’m getting discouraged by the way you continuously say things that are on the fringe

What have I written recently that it "on the fringe". Don't be oblique....spit it out.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 14, 2019, 04:49:54 AM
Rich, I'll try to avoid insults, but it will be difficult. You couldn't be more wrong about your plan. Where to begin?

-The idea that a few hundred million people are required to live a non-primitive life is ridiculous.

-The idea that a few hundred million people are going to move to Saskatchewan in the next decade or two and set up a non-primitive life is absurd.

-Saskatchewan is probably the 2nd worst region in the world (behind central asia) in terms of the amount of climate change likely to occur in the coming decades. (And it is literally the opposite of Patagonia in almost every aspect.)

-(Although totally irrelevant,) the amount of land needed to support a few hundred million people is not large. Patagonia is 7 times larger than Bangladesh, population 170 million. Patagonia is also larger than Saskatchewan. Granted most of Patagonia won't be habitable, but NONE of Saskatchewan will be.

If you are too uppity to live a primitive life, you are pathetic and deserve what you will most certainly get, which is death. You seem a decent fellow, but try to keep an open mind that you may (again) be very wrong about something, before you start throwing ideas around as facts. Cheers

LOL.

I don't think Saskatchewan could support hundreds of millions of people. That would be the entire NH potential.

N. Europe, Russia, China, Scandinavia, parts of US, etc. would combine to make up the potential population.

Saskatchewan is good for it's remoteness, oil supplies and infrastructure.

I'm just thinking out loud here....not presenting anything as fact.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on July 14, 2019, 05:40:06 AM
Just a note: The north half of Saskatchewan is dominated by the Canadian Shield, not an area noted for deep top soil generally.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 14, 2019, 06:00:20 AM
Just a note: The north half of Saskatchewan is dominated by the Canadian Shield, not an area noted for deep top soil generally.

I guess there's vertical farming. They also have caribou and deer there.

One might only have to find a place to survive a few decades while the Great Thinning takes place. A place with great topsoil might attract too many people.

Again, I'm winging it here. Where would you go?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on July 14, 2019, 06:18:05 AM
What happens to me is not very important. As they advised those in New Orleans recently, "Shelter in place."

Spending a lot of fuel moving everyone around is just going to exacerbate things further. But then, I've had a good full life, so I can't judge others' desires to extend theirs.

As Neven pointed out, people are anxious about their own survival mostly out of fear of death. But death is one thing, in this uncertain world, that we can all be 100% certain of.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 08:06:29 AM
Saskatchewan is good for it's remoteness

But you want to live with a couple hundred million people to avoid primitiveness. This is just an idea...but you are a moron.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 14, 2019, 08:24:45 AM
From en.wiktionary:
Quote
Noun

moron (plural morons)

    (informal, derogatory) A stupid person; an idiot; a fool.
    (dated, originally) A person of borderline intelligence in the former classification of mental retardation, having an intelligence quotient of 50-69.
I doubt anyone on this forum falls in that IQ category.

Please try to keep it civilised. It was not personal, and even then ;)
It takes effort to separate emotion from rational argument.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 08:28:02 AM
I guess there's vertical farming.

I genuinely think you haven't thought any of this through AT ALL. If 100 million people lived in Patagonia, each family of 4 could have 10 acres. Not exactly the situation for vertical farming.

I know, that that is not what you were arguing for but your overall message seems way off base.


Where would you go?

PATAGONIA!!!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 08:29:27 AM
From en.wiktionary:
Quote
Noun

moron (plural morons)

    (informal, derogatory) A stupid person; an idiot; a fool.
    (dated, originally) A person of borderline intelligence in the former classification of mental retardation, having an intelligence quotient of 50-69.
I doubt anyone on this forum falls in that IQ category.

Please try to keep it civilised. It was not personal, and even then ;)
It takes effort to separate emotion from rational argument.

I do! Just add 100
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Paddy on July 14, 2019, 09:55:43 AM
This thread went south fast.

I think, personally, the cost:reward of crisis prepping is on quite a steep bit of the curve when you start talking about packing everything up and moving to patagonia / new zealand / Saskatchewan / a remote island somewhere.

Prepping for temporary shortages is as far as I'm willing to go, personally. But in a way, I'm glad that some people do go a lot further.  A slightly higher chunk of the human race will go on as and when TSHTF courtesy of all the doomsday prepping, no doubt.  I'm unlikely to be one of them, but I'm actually ok with that.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 14, 2019, 11:45:11 AM
This thread went south fast.

About the only sensible remark for some time on this thread.

If anyone is looking for practical advice on prepping for collapse, look elsewhere.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 14, 2019, 11:52:21 AM

What do you do when 'Gerontocrat' comes by with his merry men?


See point 5. Your neighbors will take your stuff or help you protect it from the gerontoarmy. Who wins is up to the moment, but if you are in a defensive position, you have the advantage.

Quote
I'd say most people cannot afford to do those things you propose. What will they do?

Natural selection happens.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 14, 2019, 05:46:49 PM
<snippage>
Natural selection happens.

You call that natural selection? Wow.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 14, 2019, 05:55:06 PM
Quote
You call that natural selection? Wow.

It is literally natural selection. Like, textbook natural selection. Groups of animals fighting each other for resources, who ever lives gets to see another day.

That has always been the natural order, but food abundance made us forget about that behavior.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 14, 2019, 06:45:51 PM
I haven't ever seen a technological solution to our emissions frenzy. There just aren't working examples of modern humans living at emission rates that can turn around atmospheric  CO2 trends . I arbitrarily assign < 2 tons CO2 as each humans  fair share. Even at that rate we would still collectively emit over 15 GT CO2 and Mauna Loa GHG levels would continue to rise.
 So currently the only humans living a < 2 ton lifestyle are primitives.
 Natural selection will be income independent  on a planet wide scale. Encouraging primitive lifestyles would help survival chances of the largest number of humans but there is just no way for this planet to support 7-8 billion humans.  Carrying capacity is the number ( of any living thing ) an ecosystem can support.  I am killing our life support system, earth,  right along with the rest of you. Nature will deal with us . Root for nature, don't cry for us.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 14, 2019, 06:54:52 PM
I haven't ever seen a technological solution to our emissions frenzy. There just aren't working examples of modern humans living at emission rates that can turn around atmospheric  CO2 trends . I arbitrarily assign < 2 tons CO2 as each humans  fair share. Even at that rate we would still collectively emit over 15 GT CO2 and Mauna Loa GHG levels would continue to rise.
 So currently the only humans living a < 2 ton lifestyle are primitives.
 Natural selection will be income independent  on a planet wide scale. Encouraging primitive lifestyles would help survival chances of the largest number of humans but there is just no way for this planet to support 7-8 billion humans.  Carrying capacity is the number ( of any living thing ) an ecosystem can support.  I am killing our life support system, earth,  right along with the rest of you. Nature will deal with us . Root for nature, don't cry for us.

Therefore, we must build faster shelters for several thousand - millions of the elect, who will be able to raise the earthly civilization after the collapse.

Better to do it now, then it will be late. Elon Musk is a genius who strives to create reserve colonies.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 14, 2019, 07:01:22 PM
(https://pp.userapi.com/c851420/v851420358/1696ab/Zj6gFioVD2c.jpg)

Such a refuge is very easily taken by robbers with a small amount of explosives.

Better this way:

https://theculturetrip.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/living_on_mars-01.jpg

Or:

(https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--NwRMdSPR--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18w3hazzai2n1jpg.jpg)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 14, 2019, 08:23:09 PM
So a significant number of people think that Elon Musk is going to colonise Mars to save the human race.
FOOLS!

He has a fiendish and well thought-out plan. Every time someone buys a Tesla 3 they are helping to finance their assured destruction. Musk has seen the Bond movie. He knows that colonising Mars won't work. But sending a few thousand people up there with enough stuff for a few years is all that is needed and eminently doable.
______________________________________________________________
Last reel of the last Hollywood Blockbuster - " Mars One ".

Launch pad at Musk City
The last Space X heavy-lifter is on the launching pad.
The last cases of Krug Champagne are being loaded.
The starving hordes are storming the facility, mown down by the robot gatling guns on the ground and on the drones circling the launch pad.

Musk, turns, an ironic wave to the dying mob, and is whisked up to the entrance hatch.
The door shuts, the engines start, and away she goes.

Inside the control room of the heavy-lifter.
"Now?" asks Musk's ever faithful side-kick.
"Not yet" replies Musk, "Wait 'til zero-g. I want to see the payload on its way".

Zero-g. 
The hiss of escaping air as the entire side of the space vehicle opens.
In the time of one earth orbit, a large number of spherical objects leave the heavy-lifter and then under their own power head in different directions earthwards.

"I got the idea when we were sending up the internet constellation", murmurs Musk, sucking a drop of Krug. "Genetically modified virus, human specific for 100% mortality. Tested thoroughly  to ensure it self-destructs within one year. But we will stay on Mars for two. Damn cheap way to get a whole damn planet".

Fade-out with quiet laughter.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 14, 2019, 09:43:15 PM
Prepping is importand anyway. It gives you the time to reorganize without killing each other. But i wonder how these city boys are going to do that.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 10:34:45 PM
Prepping is importand anyway. It gives you the time to reorganize without killing each other. But i wonder how these city boys are going to do that.

They aren't. They are going to kill each other for medicine, water, food, and eventually their bodies meat. It will be pretty epic. Some of it will be filmed and be able to be watch eventually when things stabilize. Should be pretty epic footage. Something to look forward to.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on July 14, 2019, 10:38:29 PM
A realistic look at prepping and it´s bounds would have been interesting. Guess this is not it and if the question is where to relocate we also have a thread for that.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 14, 2019, 11:07:21 PM
A realistic look at prepping and it´s bounds would have been interesting.

Well let's make it that. I'll start.

Water is the hardest part. (Some places access isn't a problem, but only purification.) Well pumps last about a decade usually. So modern wells are basically worthless. Tanks of water last a couple decades. Perennial rivers and lakes are probably the only realistic answer. And purification is not actually realistic long term. The brutal truth is that what makes the most sense would be to start drinking dirty water now and allowing the body to adapt. Modern medicine could step in to prevent death if things go really bad, but in general the immune system should be allowed to adapt the best it can on its own.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on July 14, 2019, 11:37:26 PM
Uhm...not what i had in mind.

If you don´t have a clear stream or other reliable source you should boil it because there are certain amoeba ,bacteria and hookworms whom you don´t want messing with you. Your immune system does not adapt to those per se since there are so many types.

And would you have your 2/3 year old do that? Hope not. It is just not an option.

The immune system makes antibodies but it is for specific things that is why we can have partial immunity for certain flu strains but no protection for some of the common cold bacteria.

You cannot train your immune system the way you propose.   


 

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on July 15, 2019, 12:25:24 AM
That's not correct. The immune system is extremely complex and does have subsystems that variously target viruses, bacteria, worms, etc. Many of these are just starting to be understood. See e.g. https://www.newswise.com/articles/researchers-learn-how-the-immune-system-fights-parasitic-worms .

But I agree that purposefully feeding parasites to children is a very bad idea.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 15, 2019, 12:33:14 AM
That's not correct. The immune system is extremely complex and does have subsystems that variously target viruses, bacteria, worms, etc. Many of these are just starting to be understood. See e.g. https://www.newswise.com/articles/researchers-learn-how-the-immune-system-fights-parasitic-worms .

But I agree that purposefully feeding parasites to children is a very bad idea.
WaterAid reckon 800 children die every day from dirty water
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 15, 2019, 05:50:54 AM
Beer is nice and safe for drinking :)

<snippage>
 So currently the only humans living a < 2 ton lifestyle are primitives.

I am in that category.
Always knew I was antiderivative.

Never knew that natural selection functions in a capitalistic extremely unequal system as if it were living nature. You really must want to belieeeve you are a 'winner'. This rich and powerful Mr. Trump really is a 'winner', isn't he. The 'best fit'.

edit: added "living"
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 15, 2019, 09:05:19 AM
If this prepping thread were real (and not just for daydreaming and amusement) then you would be talking about the best ways to grow food low-tech, the best edible mushrooms, how to bake bread from acorn (like Bruce Steele), the best ways to get clean water, hunting with bows, discussing whether goats or sheep make more sense around a farm, the most resistant fruit-trees that can be grown without spraying, mudbrick-techniques, etc. I think if the proverbial SHTF most of you won't last a week. Sorry. Time to get real. 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 15, 2019, 11:07:35 AM
Very glad to know about you Nanning. As an answer to El Cid (=Matamoros, hope your not one of them)
I only have water from a spring, I have an useless arrow because I have hens, although only eat their eggs. I'm becoming an expert eating wild mushrooms (till i dye). Fresh and dry wild fruits, snails, ants, are good nourishment...
PV plaques are my only energy supply. No ICE generator. No roads...
Bruce, Nanning, Sidd, and others would understand that at the end of the day this way of living, trying to fuse into your environment is hard but very rewarding. Like running a marathon. Is natural and fulfill your spirit in a way that no modern commodity would. So, we're not part of the problem, and at the same time life is marvellous around us.
Is not a mater of winning or loosing (as Nanning ironically points), is a mater of getting rid of a lot of cultural crap and finding your true nature.
(Sorry for my dreadful English)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 15, 2019, 01:25:19 PM
Never knew that natural selection functions in a capitalistic extremely unequal system as if it were nature. You really must want to belieeeve you are a 'winner'. This rich and powerful Mr. Trump really is a 'winner', isn't he. The 'best fit'.
Capitalism swipes ideas for its own purposes, including vile behaviour to their fellow humans.

Victorian capitalism took Natural selection and from it made Social Darwinism to justify screwing the workforce into the ground.  Enlightened self-interest died.

Now we have a school of economics brought to a grateful capitalist world by by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942 - "Creative Destruction". No connection with Nazism, of course. Creative destruction can be described as the dismantling of long-standing practices in order to make way for innovation. The term creative destruction was coined by Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter in 1942.

It may underpin part of the "philosophy" of  Ayn Rand - author of "Atlas Shrugged". Selfishness is not just good, it is necessary for the development of mankind. Alan Greenspan was a devotee, an acolyte, of Ayn Rand.

The progress of man depends on the individual acting purely in his own interests. The destruction of the existing order is a necessary part of this. Those crushed by it are a necessary sacrifice. These ideas are mainstream in the corporate world, including silicon valley. Maybe even Elon Musk is a follower.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 15, 2019, 02:06:11 PM
gerontocrat's post is a perfect example of what I have written about: there is theoretizing and philosophizing instead of actual "prepping"; which is OK,  but then let's not fool yourselves about this whole prepping - whatever it means.

Which one of you knows how to scythe? Light a fire with a stone and steel? Make traps for rabbits? How to graft a tree? Make mud-bricks? Knows what to plant on which day? How to store food? I could go on and on
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 15, 2019, 02:45:12 PM
[quote author=El Cid link=topic=2799.msg213594#msg213594 date=156319237

Which one of you knows how to scythe? Light a fire with a stone and steel? Make traps for rabbits? How to graft a tree? Make mud-bricks? Knows what to plant on which day? How to store food? I could go on and on
[/quote]

Food storage sounds like a great topic. I'd love to learn more about that.

Food types, shelf life, container types, how many cubic feet per person per month of storage, managing temperature / humidity, canning, curing, etc.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 15, 2019, 03:08:48 PM
gerontocrat's post is a perfect example of what I have written about: there is theoretizing and philosophizing instead of actual "prepping"; which is OK,  but then let's not fool yourselves about this whole prepping - whatever it means.

Which one of you knows how to scythe? Light a fire with a stone and steel? Make traps for rabbits? How to graft a tree? Make mud-bricks? Knows what to plant on which day? How to store food? I could go on and on
Done quite a bit of that stuff when I was (a lot) younger.

But now, at my age all that physical stuff ain't my scene. But all societies, especially so-called "primitive" societies (which are actually very complex) need their priests - wise men. So I am prepping for that.

When will I grow my long beard?
When will I put on my "Moses" cloak?
When will I start practicing the wise look?

So you got it wrong. Get thee to the fields and spread this year's dung**.
______________________________________________________________________
To all Readers:- Don't think we will throw your crap away. It is a valuable resource, as is your piss.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 15, 2019, 05:17:40 PM
"To all Readers:- Don't think we will throw your crap away. It is a valuable resource, as is your piss"

:)

But this reminds me of one thing : piss is truly a very important resource. Did you know that 50% of N and 60-80% of P and K that leaves your body is in your piss, which by the way is - unless you are sick - quite sterile and can be used to fertilize your fields (diliuted with water minimum 1:5) ? On the other hand, your shit contains a smaller part of valuable things and is a hotbed for all sorts of problems.

One adult's daily piss is enough to fertilize about 1m2. Researchers grew plants with artificial fertilization and piss, and piss was almost as good as the factory stuff.

So when the piss hits the fan you know what you will have to do: use your piss for fertilization and get rid of your shit with at least two years' of composting to kill anything dangerous in it.

Hope this helps :)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 15, 2019, 06:01:29 PM
<snippage>
Quote
I'd say most people cannot afford to do those things you propose. What will they do?

Natural selection happens.

Re: Natural selection and the blindness for ones own priviledge, supremacy, being in richest 10%, lack of empathy.
The majority of people in the world are poor and have no chance in hell in this system to get to your level of ownership, affluence and security. Rich people (you) appease their conscience (e.g. why have I so much and they almost nothing) by telling yourself that it is on merit, you are a 'winner'; successful. And then say it is natural with a straight face.
I am poor by choice to have a high morality, happiness and a better view.


@Aporia_filia
Nice to read, thanks.

@gerontocrat
<snippage>
Selfishness is not just good, it is necessary for the development of mankind.
..
The progress of man depends on the individual acting purely in his own interests.
..

I strongly disagree. It is the path to destruction.
We are social animals. We should function as a team, as an intimate open group. With high morality.

BOTTOM NOTE: DON'T FORGET THE MAJORITY; THE POOR. PLEASE.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 15, 2019, 09:42:12 PM
Neighbours and community. Unless you live like a hermit, you will have neighbours. Go out and talk to them. Build things together. Help each other out. That will be of far greater help than anything you can do on your own.

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ShortBrutishNasty on July 15, 2019, 10:05:00 PM
You guys are making this difficult, although Gerontocrat was getting warm with the Ayn Rand selfishness stuff.  It's way more basic than capitalism, socialism, liberalism, conservatism, etc., etc..

Just get out your DSM-5: They're called sociopaths, psychopaths, narcissists, or anybody broadly lumped into the Anti-Social Personality Disorder ("ASPD").   They've been in our gene pool ever since we started chasing squirrels and picking berries, as these ASPD traits conveyed enormous survival benefits way back then.

The bad news is that they're very much still around and, depending on who's doing the measuring, make up between 1 and 4% of the population. 

More bad news is that they cannot be cured and they're almost impossible to control.

The really bad news is that they gravitate to far greater concentrations in prisons, Wall Street and  Washington, DC.  So, like it or not, they're running the show.  Into the ground.

The really, really bad news is that once the net and grid go down and a few psychos in the military shirts realize their game is over, they're gonna take it all down.  That's what psychopaths do.

Sorry.  It's been baked into the cake for a long time.  Agriculture, civilization and fossil fuels just sped things up.

Now, to leave on an upbeat "prepping" note, unless you're Aporia_f out in the woods all alone, you should commit to learning the 20 most common ASPD traits and be able to recognize if your brother-in-law is one.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 15, 2019, 10:32:30 PM
Nanning, You have taken a couple swipes at me .

Quote from: Bruce Steele on July 14, 2019, 06:45:51 PM
<snippage>
 So currently the only humans living a < 2 ton lifestyle are primitives.
Nanning responds
"I am in that category.
Always knew I was antiderivative.

Never knew that natural selection functions in a capitalistic extremely unequal system as if it were nature. You really must want to belieeeve you are a 'winner'. This rich and powerful Mr. Trump really is a 'winner', isn't he. The 'best fit'.

OK I live on a fairly standard /average income but my farm is worth a lot !  Should I sell it to the highest bidder and give up on my low carbon agriculture self education program ? I have solar panels, I am having Tesla Power Walls installed, my house and farm use very little grid supplied electricity, my water is well supplied , private wells , my septic is not municipal , I don't commute, I make my own biodiesel, I use a battery powered wheel hoe to cultivate the gardens and the bio tractor for tillage,
I collect and compost a couple tons a year.  I farm without outside fertilizer and try to get by without fossil fuels and if push came to shove I could feed several families using the same techniques. Am I privileged ? Yes, I am lucky and comfortable but I am not lazy , contented, or willing to go gently into any good night.
 I personally  think Aporia-filia has an enviable set-up and lives with a carbon footprint that puts most of us to shame. El Cid, Sidd, and I all share an interest in agrarian lifestyles and pursuits. Part of my reason to even explain the details of my farming techniques is to try and show such things are possible without totally giving up on a modern lifestyle. I worry about the  embodied energy of all the material possessions required to pull it off however and I also realize most people have not the time, money, or skill set to buy their own farm and run it this way. But someone should spend  their efforts at getting us off a dependence on fossil fuel and the 10 calories of fossil fuel burned for each food calorie produced.
 So while I can take whatever critique you offer I think you should better explain how you would propose to feed us all without fossil fuel ? Does your < 2 ton CO2 footprint feed anyone, could you feed several families if you had to without ff ?  So I am calling you out, tell us about your carbon footprint and please make your description enviable . People need to believe in something , please forgive me my delusions.
 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 16, 2019, 02:49:15 AM
If this prepping thread were real (and not just for daydreaming and amusement) then you would be talking about the best ways to grow food low-tech, the best edible mushrooms, how to bake bread from acorn (like Bruce Steele), the best ways to get clean water, hunting with bows, discussing whether goats or sheep make more sense around a farm, the most resistant fruit-trees that can be grown without spraying, mudbrick-techniques, etc. I think if the proverbial SHTF most of you won't last a week. Sorry. Time to get real.

Well I actually WAY undercut growing food, and started with WATER. But hey, if you think mushrooms are more important than WATER, then this thread probably isn't for you.

Ya, most people will die really quickly in 1st world countries if there is a sudden collapse. How does that make anything being said invalid? You just want to poo poo on any discussion of this sort.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 16, 2019, 02:55:16 AM
Uhm...not what i had in mind.

So what DID you have in mind? Rather than just whining non-stop, can you actually write in the manner which you seem to think everyone else should write?

If you don´t have a clear stream or other reliable source you should boil it because...

I'd love to drop you off in the middle of nowhere and watch you boil your water. LOL!

And would you have your 2/3 year old do that? Hope not. It is just not an option.

I wonder how the last 1000 generations (until the last 3) of your ancestors reproduced. If just drinking the water available wasn't an option, none of us would be here. You <snip, N.> can't imagine a world outside the one you were raised in, despite that being the world of your great grandparents, and the infinite generations before them.

Have you ever seen a wild animal purify their water before drinking it? LOL!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 16, 2019, 04:49:43 AM
http://www.fao.org/3/ca5249en/ca5249en.pdf

Quote
After decades of steady decline, the trend in world hunger – as measured by the prevalence of undernourishment – reverted in 2015, remaining virtually unchanged in the past three years at a level slightly below 11 percent. Meanwhile, the number of people who suffer from hunger has slowly increased. As a result, more than 820 million people in the world were still hungry in 2018, underscoring the immense challenge of achieving the Zero Hunger target by 2030.

Hunger is on the rise in almost all African subregions, making Africa the region with the highest prevalence of undernourishment, at almost 20 percent. Hunger is also slowly rising in Latin America and the Caribbean, although its prevalence is still below 7 percent. In Asia, Western Asia shows a continuous increase since 2010, with more than 12 percent of its population undernourished today.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 16, 2019, 05:35:39 AM
Thank you very much for your reply Bruce.

I'm sorry that my critique appeared personal, it was not. I respect you Bruce, I think you are a good person.

What triggered me:
First comes Archimid (whom I respect as well) with his interpretation of "natural selection" and the implication that because I'm poor and represent the poor, when TSHTF we 'the poor' are easy targets without security and when we die en mass, that is because we are 'less fit'. He calls that natural selection. The infirm also get 'natural' selectioned. What he/she calls our 'natural' world is one of violence, oppression and low morality.
Then you added "primitives". I don't know exactly what a swipe is but I felt a strong urge to react and hold up a reality mirror; point out the basis of supremacy and priviledge. You could also call it racism based on YES/NO affluence.

explain how you would propose to feed us all without fossil fuel ?

It can't be done. We live on borrowed time. When is Earth resource day? We live on borrowed planets. Well, when I say 'we', of course I don't mean the poor consuming the resources! No, that'll be the 'winners', the rich of course. But in this system where the rich take almost everything and don't share, it is called 'natural' selection when it collapses and the poor die. With poor I mean poor in possessions, in material stuff.
It is as if accumulation is seen as a 'natural' survival force. Insane.

Quote
I personally think Aporia-filia has an enviable set-up and lives with a carbon footprint that puts most of us to shame
Great idea, let's reintroduce SHAME. A hint of morality there? Why shame?

Quote
without totally giving up on a modern lifestyle.
This is the problem.

No prepping for me.

Survival: I'm 1m70 (5Ft7); 61 Kg; Blood pressure 120/80 mmHg; Total lung capacity 8L; No pain; I can jump over the saddle of my bike and land on my feet; Very athletic; I can walk on my hands and more gymnastics; I am fast, flexible and very strong. I have a good understanding of humans. Good non-verbal interpretation of humans. My intelligence works excellent outside abstractions; outside. I live in a rural place with a stronger older culture and a different language (Frisian). I make easily contact with others. Not authoritarian.
Hardly have any possessions and therefore mobile and free. In the last couple of years I've learned to go with less and less, and now I feel quite detached from possessions.
This is not just a good preparation but the road to happiness and to live freely and nobly; see Bertrand Russel's quote at the bottom of my posts.

Carbon footprint: In order to have a clear conscience, I cannot participate in any way in the ongoing destruction. So I have to live with a carbon footprint which when multiplied by 8 billion, would not give the living world the current problems. I have no direct emissions. Zero.

Quote
Does your < 2 ton CO2 footprint feed anyone, could you feed several families if you had to without ff ?  So I am calling you out, tell us about your carbon footprint and please make your description enviable.

I am not an expert but tend to look at all the humans through all of the past 5 million years. I just skip the last 250 years. Everything before that is a solution to your question. Though not ultimately sustainable I think (1000+ generations).
---

Quote
But someone should spend  their efforts at getting us off a dependence on fossil fuel and the 10 calories of fossil fuel burned for each food calorie produced.

I really think you are doing great experiments. I've enjoyed reading your posts and your solutions.


Dear Bruce, I feel strongly about these moral things and my language may be a bit stronger. please understand that swiping or putting someone down or whatever is absolutely not my intention.

---
Neighbours and community. Unless you live like a hermit, you will have neighbours. Go out and talk to them. Build things together. Help each other out. That will be of far greater help than anything you can do on your own.
Very good. Working together, sharing. Not being selfish.
You are on the right path I think sidd. And thank you for your, what I see as, higher morailty.

edit:added sidd quote
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rod on July 16, 2019, 05:53:24 AM
No prepping for me.

Survival: I'm 1m70 (5Ft7); 61 Kg; Blood pressure 120/80 mmHg; Total lung capacity 8L; No pain; I can jump over the saddle of my bike and land on my feet; Very athletic; I can walk on my hands and more gymnastics; I am fast, flexible and very strong.



LOL!   I’m in Gerontocrat’s army and while you are jumping over your bicycle we are going to steal your wife and take your food!  Now what? 

This thread has become totally ridiculous 😂😂😂
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 16, 2019, 06:36:20 AM
Nanning, Primitive isn't intended as a derogatory term either, well not by me anyhow. I would like to think we could save something of modern society and adapt it to a more primitive existence .
Primitive to me means living within the limits that local resources constrain you to. Rather like expecting the future to inform the past I suppose .
ps  It's getting hard to ignor the trolls . " It's a shame "



 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 16, 2019, 08:40:05 AM
(I put this here because of the recent discussion.)

Great article in the Guardian by Jeff Sparrow:

"Australia's Orwellian anti-refugee system hints at what's to come for climate refugees"
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/australias-orwellian-anti-refugee-system-hints-at-whats-to-come-for-climate-refugees (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/16/australias-orwellian-anti-refugee-system-hints-at-whats-to-come-for-climate-refugees)


Quotes
"Those are, of course, some of the poorest regions in the world, places that benefited least from the Great Acceleration of consumer capitalism in the post-war era. The carbon-belching industries of the 21st century have not enriched the average person in Somalia – and yet the UNHRC now warns of climate change in that nation exacerbating the floods and droughts already sending millions into camps."

"The oft noted scandal of climate change,” say Geoff Mann and Joel Wainwright in their book Climate Leviathan, “is that whose who caused it will not live to see its full consequences and those who are suffering or will suffer worst did not cause the problem."


"They might have done nothing wrong (few people have smaller carbon footprints than the inhabitants of sub-Saharan Africa).
..
As international law now stands, they’re not entitled to anything."


AND

"Instead of galvanising heroic innovation and international co-operation, growing environmental and socio-economic turbulence may simply drive elite publics into more frenzied attempts to wall themselves off from the rest of humanity. Global mitigation … would be tacitly abandoned – as, to some extent, it already has been – in favour of accelerated investment in selection adaption for Earth’s first-class passengers. The goal would be the creation of green and gated oases of permanent affluence on an otherwise stricken planet."
(bolded by me)

---------
Of course the 'goal' in the last sentence is no more than an insane fantasy by the blinded rich. Completely and deeply addicted and devoid of any empathy.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 16, 2019, 08:45:15 AM
LOL!   I’m in Gerontocrat’s army and while you are jumping over your bicycle we are going to steal your wife and take your food!  Now what?

I don't have a wife or children or other relationship and no food. And I own no house, I rent. I run away. Bye bye.

But this is hypothetical because I don't want to live past the next 10 years and experience 'Gerontocrat' and Rod. At first I though about euthanasia but that has risks and is a hassle. So I plan to go on 'hunger strike' but without the strike. I'll stop eating. Bye bye.

Quote
This thread has become totally ridiculous 😂😂😂
Feeling the heat?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on July 16, 2019, 09:00:53 AM
Aerosol masking effect is ironically keeping us alive.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 16, 2019, 09:03:20 AM
Nanning, Primitive isn't intended as a derogatory term either, well not by me anyhow. I would like to think we could save something of modern society and adapt it to a more primitive existence .
Primitive to me means living within the limits that local resources constrain you to. Rather like expecting the future to inform the past I suppose .
ps  It's getting hard to ignor the trolls . " It's a shame "

Thank you for explaining. I misunderstood, sorry Bruce.
And thank you for respecting me. I don't have all the answers. I think it is impossible to maintain modern living standards in a mitigated future. I don't think there will be a mitigated future, from looking at reality now. AGW is accelerating because of the large energy imbalance and I think many people don't understand the exponential function, non-linearity. I think consumers are in a strong fantasy (technology=magic) bubble that will soon burst, ie within 10 years. Look at their bodies, their lack of empathy and general lower morality, the mental health problems, suicidal teenagers, loneliness.
We are in the metaphorical situation were the dog is feverishly eating the last piece of cake as it sees the owner approaching with the rolled-up newspaper.
p.s. I am not good in identifying trolls. But I think  it is more than 'a shame'. It is evil.

This is a really great article by a 17yo girl in the Guardian I strongly commend:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/12/jamie-margolin-zero-hour-climate-change (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/12/jamie-margolin-zero-hour-climate-change)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 16, 2019, 10:22:40 AM

But this is hypothetical because I don't want to live past the next 10 years and experience 'Gerontocrat' and Rod. At first I though about euthanasia but that has risks and is a hassle. So I plan to go on 'hunger strike' but without the strike. I'll stop eating. Bye bye.

Dude, are you real? If yes then I think you need professional help. Seriously.

Do you know what allegedly Francis of Assisi said when asked what he would do if he knew that tomorrow is the Day of the Last Judgement? He said he would probably plant one more walnut tree. And that is what we all need to do.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: pleun on July 16, 2019, 10:53:22 AM
Why do we need so many walnut trees ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 16, 2019, 11:28:43 AM
it's just a sort of parable. Walnut trees grow very slowly, so if you plant a walnut tree, then the saying is that you plant it for your grandchildren. Planting a walnut tree is an investment into the faraway future...

...just like planting oaks. I planted many hectares of oaks from acorns, it took them 10 years to be 2-3 m tall :) I know I will never harvest those trees.

***EDIT: grafted walnut trees bear fruit faster but grafting walnut is much more difficult then other fruits, so until modern times walnut was usually ungrafted, growing from a chance seedling, and it often took 10 years to see what sort of fruit it bears (in case of a seedling you never know what you get, the fruit will not be like the one you planted) not to mention peak production which might take 20-30 years. 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 16, 2019, 12:55:29 PM
Quote
First comes Archimid (whom I respect as well) with his interpretation of "natural selection" and the implication that because I'm poor and represent the poor, when TSHTF we 'the poor' are easy targets without security and when we die en mass, that is because we are 'less fit'. He calls that natural selection
.

No. I was asked a very specific situation. Gerontocrat comes around with his Army to take my stuff.  I try to fight him off with my neighbors. Whoever wins, proves to be the strong by winning and survives. The other one doesn't. Natural selection happens. That's all I said.

Rich people are only rich in the current world order. Under collapse, the difference between rich and poor dissolves, and it becomes the connected ones vs the unconnected ones. When food is scarce money losses its value, so there won't be a rich vs poor fight. Rich people lose the most from climate change.

I believe your overreaction stems  from including humans in natural selection. It is true that racist delude themselves into thinking they are strong and like to use natural selection analogies to affirm their superiority other other group they see as unfit. It actually brings me happiness to know that racist will get a huge reality check as they see their perceived superiority dissappears as the world order changes. However, that is not what I'm referring to. I know that "strong" or successful adaptation is a function of the environment, not the individual.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 16, 2019, 12:56:57 PM

But this is hypothetical because I don't want to live past the next 10 years and experience 'Gerontocrat' and Rod. At first I though about euthanasia but that has risks and is a hassle. So I plan to go on 'hunger strike' but without the strike. I'll stop eating. Bye bye.

Dude, are you real? If yes then I think you need professional help. Seriously.

Do you know what allegedly Francis of Assisi said when asked what he would do if he knew that tomorrow is the Day of the Last Judgement? He said he would probably plant one more walnut tree. And that is what we all need to do.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 16, 2019, 01:02:34 PM
Gerontocrat comes around with his Army to take my stuff.  I try to fight him off with my neighbors.

My "Army" are Freedom Fighters.
You and your neighbours are a bunch of terrorists.

I am therefore justified in wiping you and yours out by any and all means.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 16, 2019, 01:11:52 PM
Gerontocrat comes around with his Army to take my stuff.  I try to fight him off with my neighbors.

And that's the most likely scenario not utopia....
My "Army" are Freedom Fighters.
You and your neighbours are a bunch of terrorists.

I am therefore justified in wiping you and yours out by any and all means.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 16, 2019, 05:53:30 PM
And that's the most likely scenario not utopia....
And when the initial conflicts are over, people start dying in droves. Is this a world you want to live in?
AGW means the environment is going to get from bad to worse, accelleratingly (is that a word?). Then there's this fast mass extinction of natural life.

@gerontocrat
Are you being sarcastic/realistic or do you have a cunning plan? Are you Hannibal Smith?

edit: @Archimid: I don't know how to respond.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 16, 2019, 06:17:17 PM
I think he's serious, it's the coffee.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 16, 2019, 06:49:44 PM
India, which understands that the problem of overpopulation, hunger, coal consumption and the shortage of fresh water cannot be solved, is also investing its last money in space colonization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGaxR9yrUQY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dmZaBq8JzKs
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 16, 2019, 07:09:12 PM

And when the initial conflicts are over, people start dying in droves. Is this a world you want to live in?
@gerontocrat
Are you being sarcastic/realistic or do you have a cunning plan? Are you Hannibal Smith?
The people die in droves straight away. Biggest problem is safe and sanitary disposal of the corpses, especially in the cities.

Is this a world we want to live in? Like you think we've got a choice?

Am I being sarcastic/realistic or do I have a cunning plan?  That's for me to know and for you to hope you do not find out.

Am I Hannibal Smith? No. The bullets are real.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 16, 2019, 07:17:52 PM
Every single author/thinker that has dealt with a collapse scenario has ended with the same script.

Just pray there is no collapse in the works. Otherwise the storyline is clear as the day...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 16, 2019, 11:21:44 PM
The global collapse will come, I am quite certain, probably in 2040-2060. And while I may not be around by then, my daughters will. I just pray my country doesn't collapse much before that (as it seems hell-bent striving toward that goal), or that I manage to relocate beforehand. Thus my only prep is trying to get a foreign passport while the horizon is (relatively) clear.
Post global collapse, I do not expect to survive as a farmer/defender or as a pillager. Not in my skillset or inclination and not enough room on the planet.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 17, 2019, 07:09:01 AM
Biggest problem is safe and sanitary disposal of the corpses, especially in the cities.

Bon appétit! Get a flamethrower. Winner!

Quote
Is this a world we want to live in? Like you think we've got a choice?

Yes. Stop living while it's still good. OK, very radical and sad but I see no other choice. It is not living but survival already for most.
The end of the line.
[/quote]
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 12:50:09 PM

They've been in our gene pool ever since we started chasing squirrels and picking berries, as these ASPD traits conveyed enormous survival benefits way back then.


They have been in our gene pool for a long time but it definitely did not confer any superior traits. Back then we were social/altruistic people who needed to work together to survive. Psychopaths were likely to have been selected against. There are no selective pressures nowadays so they can thrive in this degenerate society.

That's the reason why I propose eugenics to weed out psychopathic traits from the human gene pool. Mandatory sterilization and/or life in prison if they commit a crime. They can be distinguished from the rest of the population with brain scans so there will be no chance of harming an innocent person.

By the way, squirrels did not have much meat in them and they're hard to catch. More likely we were hunting bigger critters.  :)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 17, 2019, 01:28:31 PM
Which altruistic, higher human beings will control eugenics and the decision who is a dangerous psychopath?? Very dangerous path, especially with our history of institutionalizing women in the 1800 and 1900s because they did not conform to the male standards.

Very dangerous...no thank you
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 01:36:53 PM
Quote
Your choice with a gun is even sadder. What can you do with a gun against hungry soldiers in tanks with guns. It resembles a scene from the movie:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cC3IGts3Dyk

On Earth, you physically can not create a safe haven, inaccessible to robbers.

Tanks only have a 250 mile range and need to be maintained quite often. The fuel they can steal, but the repairs require specialized labor and parts they are not likely to have. Yet generally you're right. That's why I advocate living in self-reliant eco-villages of 300-500 people. Well-armed people. There is safety in numbers.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 17, 2019, 01:37:38 PM

That's the reason why I propose eugenics to weed out psychopathic traits from the human gene pool. Mandatory sterilization and/or life in prison if they commit a crime. They can be distinguished from the rest of the population with brain scans so there will be no chance of harming an innocent person.

If people with your views ever get in charge,
God help us.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 17, 2019, 01:55:51 PM
Quote
That's why I advocate living in self-reliant eco-villages of 300-500 people. Well-armed people. There is safety in numbers.

This is "Saviors" level shit.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 01:56:40 PM
Which altruistic, higher human beings will control eugenics and the decision who is a dangerous psychopath?? Very dangerous path, especially with our history of institutionalizing women in the 1800 and 1900s because they did not conform to the male standards.

Very dangerous...no thank you

There are brain scans that could tell definitively whether a person is psychopathic or not. I would have triple redundancy in the tests to make sure that there is no mistake. The danger that a psychopath poses to society is well worth the expense and, so long as it is done with 100 percent certainty, society has the moral right to deal with the criminal elements amongst them.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 02:00:27 PM
Quote
That's why I advocate living in self-reliant eco-villages of 300-500 people. Well-armed people. There is safety in numbers.

This is "Saviors" level shit.

Perhaps I did not word it carefully. The well-armed villages would be defensive in nature. They would not be marauders or anyone who initiates harm to others.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 17, 2019, 02:03:31 PM

There are brain scans that could tell definitively whether a person is psychopathic or not. I would have triple redundancy in the tests to make sure that there is no mistake. The danger that a psychopath poses to society is well worth the expense and, so long as it is done with 100 percent certainty, society has the moral right to deal with the criminal elements amongst them.

No there are no scans that can tell who is a dangerous psychopath or not...good try..
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 02:06:33 PM

That's the reason why I propose eugenics to weed out psychopathic traits from the human gene pool. Mandatory sterilization and/or life in prison if they commit a crime. They can be distinguished from the rest of the population with brain scans so there will be no chance of harming an innocent person.

If people with your views ever get in charge,
God help us.

Society deals with its criminal elements with imprisonment. Dealing with congenital criminals should be justified. There would be no harm to society in general.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 02:10:02 PM

There are brain scans that could tell definitively whether a person is psychopathic or not. I would have triple redundancy in the tests to make sure that there is no mistake. The danger that a psychopath poses to society is well worth the expense and, so long as it is done with 100 percent certainty, society has the moral right to deal with the criminal elements amongst them.

No there are no scans that can tell who is a dangerous psychopath or not...good try..

https://www.med.wisc.edu/news-and-events/2011/november/psychopaths-brains-differences-structure-function/

Also:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-neuroscientist-who-discovered-he-was-a-psychopath-180947814/
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 17, 2019, 02:14:09 PM
May I suggest that this psychopathic discussion is OT for this thread?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 02:26:34 PM
May I suggest that this psychopathic discussion is OT for this thread?

Sorry about that. I realize that it is a digression.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 02:31:24 PM
Neighbours and community. Unless you live like a hermit, you will have neighbours. Go out and talk to them. Build things together. Help each other out. That will be of far greater help than anything you can do on your own.

sidd

Good suggestion.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 03:11:55 PM
This might be somewhat off topic but it touches on the subject.

I believe in an alternative civilization.

No cities, no suburbs. In their place a million villages. Self reliant eco-villages of 300-500 persons. Permaculture for their food supply. Stockpiles of food for 10 years - not so much for a social breakdown but necessary for ecological disruption and its consequences for agriculture.

Also, electrical power from windmills and/or solar.

Prepping for social collapse would require that these villages have the tools necessary to live throughout the generations without any input from society at large.

I envision an alliance of these villages both to create an alternative civilization and for the sake of self defense.

This type of society is likely to come about under the right circumstances which would be:

The book. The charismatic leader. Social collapse.

The book would be the equivalent of the Bible for an alternative society. I'm in the process of writing it.

The leader would be the equivalent of Moses. That's definitely not me.

Social collapse would be necessary since the elite of this society will try to put an end to any alternative society that works against their interests. With social collapse they would have other things on their minds and would leave us alone.

The population in general would support such a society and try to emulate them since their civilization would be collapsing without any hope of recovery.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2019, 03:22:05 PM
There are brain scans that could tell definitively whether a person is psychopathic or not.

Lol. Trump and Musk need scans immediately. I think we all know the results, but let's be sure.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on July 17, 2019, 03:25:41 PM
re #140

Ambitious writing project.

The problem here is a window of opportunity. You would like a start before things come crumbling down but then you are already on the map. And if you would start them now you might run into all kinds of regulations (i think that Bruce posted about things he could not add to the farm because of legal requirements).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: harpy on July 17, 2019, 03:40:04 PM

And when the initial conflicts are over, people start dying in droves. Is this a world you want to live in?
@gerontocrat
Are you being sarcastic/realistic or do you have a cunning plan? Are you Hannibal Smith?
The people die in droves straight away. Biggest problem is safe and sanitary disposal of the corpses, especially in the cities.

Is this a world we want to live in? Like you think we've got a choice?

Am I being sarcastic/realistic or do I have a cunning plan?  That's for me to know and for you to hope you do not find out.

Am I Hannibal Smith? No. The bullets are real.

Which pathogens are spread from dead corpses that poses such a big threat?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 17, 2019, 05:24:29 PM
We can imagine, dream, have great ideas about how to make a (brave) great new world. We can take important personal decisions on the way we live. Although, I think this will only have a solution in geological time. The problem is global so it is the human spices not the people (as we inevitably tend to think), the one that should change. We are the same people we were 2.000 years ago (or 20.000). Do your best but I'm afraid only evolution could give a chance to humans. Remember that the longest living creatures in the history of this planet are those with fewer energy needs.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180822092709.htm
"Looking at a period of roughly 5 million years from the mid-Pliocene to the present, the researchers analyzed 299 species' metabolic rates -- or, the amount of energy the organisms need to live their daily lives -- and found higher metabolic rates were a reliable predictor of extinction likelihood."
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 17, 2019, 05:40:58 PM
This might be somewhat off topic but it touches on the subject.

I believe in an alternative civilization.

No cities, no suburbs. In their place a million villages. Self reliant eco-villages of 300-500 persons. Permaculture for their food supply. Stockpiles of food for 10 years - not so much for a social breakdown but necessary for ecological disruption and its consequences for agriculture.

Also, electrical power from windmills and/or solar.

Prepping for social collapse would require that these villages have the tools necessary to live throughout the generations without any input from society at large.

I envision an alliance of these villages both to create an alternative civilization and for the sake of self defense.
 

Seems you're basically describing the Amish.  Why re-invent the wheel?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 17, 2019, 05:43:22 PM
Villabolo, The quote about ASPD and psychopaths was ShortBrutishNasty. There are so many mental health issues that will always be with us, " but for the grace of God." Maybe we shouldn't worry to much about the law or whatever we call the set of rules we use to control our worst instincts. I know it's important to keeping a group of people living together but I think something simple like a return to the golden rule, do unto others as you would have them do unto you. But the one difference would be the golden rule would apply to  all life.  I know I sound a little crazy but if we don't change something very fundamental about our relationship with this planet and the other life forms on this planet we collectively are the psychopaths.
 Look folks we are killing so many other living things that we gotta wonder if we are somehow flawed,
Our morals are not doing an adequate job.


 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 17, 2019, 05:55:42 PM
Which pathogens are spread from dead corpses that poses such a big threat?
If you really want to know, read the attached from
https://www.who.int/diseasecontrol_emergencies/guidelines/risks/en/

But in the event of societal collapse, it is likely that bodies will be left to rot, and become a food source for rats, dogs, cats, crows and just about every carnivore and omnivore in a place near you. Even then that might not be so bad if you get over the stink.

The bacteria involved in decomposition are not dangerous, because living people already carry identical germs in their own bodies. The maggots and other insects, though revolting, also constitute no threat to public health. Rats do host fleas, which can transmit typhus, typhoid fever, plague, and other diseases. But rats endanger public health wherever they mingle with people: They are no more harmful when they feed on corpses than at any other time. Despite ancient fears of death’s “miasma,” the foul odor emitted by the body as it rots is innocuous.

In a very few cases, bacteria from corpses can cause illness when they contaminate drinking water in large quantities. This could be a problem where large quantities of bodies are decomposing near a water source.

So it is best to leave the bodies to rot where they are, and AVOID CONTACT. Leaving the city if it is in a state of collapse sounds a good option.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 17, 2019, 06:05:10 PM
Most Governments in the Northern hemisphere already have their plans for dealing with these events. They were prepared during the Cold War - in the UK it was called Civil Defense, and were to allow Government to continue in the event of most of the population being nuked.

One sometimes wonders if Governments are dusting these old plans off, updating them, and checking out the old bunkers that still exist with a view to repair and upgrade.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 17, 2019, 06:18:29 PM
Quote
The leader would be the equivalent of Moses. That's definitely not me.
Of course, that's what Moses said:
reference (https://www.voiceofprophecy.com/articles/blog/moses-five-excuses)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 06:27:20 PM
Quote
The leader would be the equivalent of Moses. That's definitely not me.
[/li]
[li]
Of course, that's what Moses said:
  • Excuse 1: I’m not good enough - “Who am I that I should go to Pharaoh, and that I should bring the children of Israel out of Egypt?” -Exodus 3:11
  • Excuse 2: I don’t have all the answers -“Then Moses said to God, “Indeed, when I come to the children of Israel and say to them, ‘The God of your fathers has sent me to you,’ and they say to me, ‘What is His name?’ what shall I say to them?” -Exodus 3:13
  • Excuse 3: People won’t believe me - “Then Moses answered and said, “But suppose they will not believe me or listen to my voice; suppose they say, ‘The LORD has not appeared to you.’ ” -Exodus 4:1
  • Excuse 4: I’m a terrible public speaker - “Then Moses said to the LORD, “O my Lord, I am not eloquent, neither before nor since You have spoken to Your servant; but I am slow of speech and slow of tongue.” -Exodus 4:10
  • Excuse 5: I’m not qualified - “But he said, “O my Lord, please send by the hand of whomever else You may send.” -Exodus 4:13  -  Moses’ final excuse is desperate. “Please, anyone but me!”
reference (https://www.voiceofprophecy.com/articles/blog/moses-five-excuses)

Thank you for the compliment Tor.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 06:31:40 PM
This might be somewhat off topic but it touches on the subject.

I believe in an alternative civilization.

No cities, no suburbs. In their place a million villages. Self reliant eco-villages of 300-500 persons. Permaculture for their food supply. Stockpiles of food for 10 years - not so much for a social breakdown but necessary for ecological disruption and its consequences for agriculture.

Also, electrical power from windmills and/or solar.

Prepping for social collapse would require that these villages have the tools necessary to live throughout the generations without any input from society at large.

I envision an alliance of these villages both to create an alternative civilization and for the sake of self defense.
 

Seems you're basically describing the Amish.  Why re-invent the wheel?

I am not a primitivist. Besides, I don't think the Amish are into windmills or solar power.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 17, 2019, 06:49:33 PM

One sometimes wonders if Governments are dusting these old plans off, updating them, and checking out the old bunkers that still exist with a view to repair and upgrade.

I seriously doubt that any "dusting off old plans" is needed. The Pentagon and Secret Service (and their foreign equivalents) have to permanently ready and prepared for this type of discontinuity.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 17, 2019, 06:54:54 PM
eco-villages:

Nice. Who's going to produce all the solar panels and who's going to kepp science alive? Back to square one, you need cities, they are there for a reason.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Burnrate on July 17, 2019, 06:58:14 PM
I think most of the way people think about prepping is generally outdated and not applicable to the current situation.  The world's population has almost doubled in the last 30 years.  That means less places, or no places, will be safe from scavenging, raiding, or other conflict.

We also aren't just looking at a loss of government but a loss of ecosystem.  One the BOE hits and that causes the clathrate gun to go off along with all the permafrost melt we can say hello to the Canfield Oceans and aerosol loss making a super hot, low oxygen world that isn't survivable.

The real question here is how do we get a ticket to live inside one of the domed cities?  Countries like the US will have enough time and resources to protect certain areas, supply them with oxygen and other resources.  It won't be for most people though.

Even if you get in to one of these places, do you really want to be on the back of the train (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowpiercer)?

Is there any way we could survive without a larger group?  A small dome inflated over an acre of land with solar panels and hydroponics?  You won't have to worry about roving bands of thieves with things being the way they are.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on July 17, 2019, 07:54:48 PM
eco-villages:

Nice. Who's going to produce all the solar panels and who's going to kepp science alive? Back to square one, you need cities, they are there for a reason.

As I said previously, I am not a primitivist. With my society you can have all the infrastructure that our current civilization has. A hundred villages can get together and start a business making windmills. A hundred others can make solar panels, etc. It will simply be a decentralized society.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 18, 2019, 09:41:06 AM
You will not be just prepping for a bad period.

This isn't like a survivaltrip where you return from and be back in comfort.

It'll never ever get better, only accelleratingly worse. Never stability and security again. Fear. Lower and lower standards of living.  There's no light at the end of the tunnel, the tunnel doesn't end. Please think it through.

My heart goes out to all children (non-grownups), beautiful humans and all other life on Earth.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 18, 2019, 09:45:35 AM
<snippage>
A hundred others can make solar panels, etc. It will simply be a decentralized society.

Who'll provide for the resources, the materials. The children mining them in Congo etc. won't work for you anymore. Try to get an idea where all the parts and materials come from in a modern product. You need all those industries as well. Those industries depend on another range of parts and materials etc etc.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 18, 2019, 10:25:46 AM
<snippage>
A hundred others can make solar panels, etc. It will simply be a decentralized society.

Who'll provide for the resources, the materials. The children mining them in Congo etc. won't work for you anymore. Try to get an idea where all the parts and materials come from in a modern product. You need all those industries as well. Those industries depend on another range of parts and materials etc etc.

You have to buy the solar panels and related infrastructure before the collapse hits and have it ready to go. That's the point of prepping.

As you say, when collapse comes, the supply chain that results in easy access to solar panels probably disappears.

It would be interesting to consider what kind of barter market emerges from the salvage of failed cities.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on July 18, 2019, 12:01:44 PM
how inviting death looks as an option ... b.c.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 12:15:58 PM
Great, now that you have your batteries, how are you going to use them?

As you probably know, solar panels attached to the grid will not work when (in your MadMax world) the grid goes off. So, you need to deattach them. Also, you will need batteries for the panels to be of any use. Unfortunately current batteries can store very little electricity. A big Tesla Powerwall2 (5900 usd) can store 13,5 kwh. A typical American household uses 20 kwh PER DAY. If you want to use your panels for heating in the middle of winter you are going to freeze to death, it won't last a day. And unfortunately in most NH midlatitude countries the sun shines very little during winter. So the panels can be used for lighting and that's it. As for heating you'd better load up on wood. Look up coppicing, you'll need it.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 18, 2019, 12:37:32 PM

Quote
As you probably know, solar panels attached to the grid will not work when (in your MadMax world) the grid goes off. So, you need to deattach them. Also, you will need batteries for the panels to be of any use. Unfortunately current batteries can store very little electricity. A big Tesla Powerwall2 (5900 usd) can store 13,5 kwh.

13.5 kwh will run your refrigerator, your lights, some fans during summer, some heating during winter, communication equipment and you still have some energy to spare for your EV or to cook small meals. It will recharge every day the sun comes out.

13.5kwh is more than most people in the world will ever need to survive.

Going back to the bear analogy, in a collapse situation a properly defended home equipped with solar panels and batteries will give you an edge over everyone without back up generation or anyone  dependent on fuel for generators.

Quote
If you want to use your panels for heating in the middle of winter you are going to freeze to death, it won't last a day.

If you try to warm a whole house while hanging around in your underwear, sure. But if you use the energy for a small room and you use propper clothing and blankets, solar panels and batteries can make the difference between life and death.

Do you not see that or are you preventing people from protecting themselves??


Quote
As for heating you'd better load up on wood. Look up coppicing, you'll need it.

Wouldn't it be better if he had both? Also, why are you counting on wood don't you think everyone will be doing the same thing? See Haiti to understand what happens when fuel is scarce and everyone starts cutting wood for their energy needs.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on July 18, 2019, 01:05:21 PM
now all that's needed is armed security 24/7 Outside of the grate US of A where do we arm ourselves ? I do not relish a heap of dead bodies to deal with every day for the first few decades . Of course in the early days their fat would be useful for fuel and light , especially if they cut down your coppice . b.c.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on July 18, 2019, 01:32:11 PM
What you need is a fabrication lab in your Eco village.
Quote
A fab lab is typically equipped with an array of flexible computer-controlled tools that cover several different length scales and various materials, with the aim to make "almost anything".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fab_lab
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 18, 2019, 01:39:34 PM
What you need is a fabrication lab in your Eco village.
Quote
A fab lab is typically equipped with an array of flexible computer-controlled tools that cover several different length scales and various materials, with the aim to make "almost anything".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fab_lab

And a carpentry shop...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on July 18, 2019, 01:42:02 PM
and a smithy ..
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 01:49:26 PM
Seriously Archimid, do some math. A refrigerator uses 1-2 kwh PER day. Plus let's say that you heat just a room and that is also abnout 2kwh if you have very good insulation. plus lighting, etc. That is minimum 4 kwh per day. Your battery will last 3,5 days at best during winter, when you often go without any significant sun to recharge the battery for weeks. Get real now.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 18, 2019, 02:28:16 PM
Quote
Seriously Archimid, do some math.

Not only you want people to ignore the threat of climate change, you want to misinform them about their options to maximize their chance of survival.

Quote
A refrigerator uses 1-2 kwh PER day.

 An 18 inch modern refrigerator can consume much less than 1 kWh a day under normal use. A good chunk of that energy spent replacing the cold that escapes every time. If refrigerator discipline is kept and a high efficiency refrigerator used that consumption can fall drastically.

Quote
Plus let's say that you heat just a room and that is also abnout 2kwh if you have very good insulation. plus lighting, etc. That is minimum 4 kwh per day.

Look at your assumptions for crying out load. If you are using the batteries for heating, you don't need the batteries for refrigeration. Even then one, powerwall is 13.5kWh, 13.5-4 = 9.5, so even when using worst case scenario as you have tried, the powerwall is enough for 3 days and then some.

Not even doing the math you can see. That's how blind you are about this.

Quote
Your battery will last 3,5 days at best during winter, when you often go without any significant sun to recharge the battery for weeks. Get real now.

Get real? The energy you get during winter is function of the size of your array, the angle of the array relative to the sun. As long as there is light the batteries will at least trickle charge. The sun will eventually come out and will give you a significant charge. If the sun doesn't come out, you have bigger problems.

The fact is that having a home with back up power provided by sunlight is an strategic advantage. Take it or leave it.


Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 18, 2019, 05:05:42 PM
how inviting death looks as an option ... b.c.

I often tell my better friends:

I love live but won't protest once i'm done with it, in case that it were possible :D

Similar to endurance sportsmen and women, they look forward to it, fight to keep running but once they reached the arrival are happy to sit down, lay back and watch.

EDIT: Further i believe in spiritual (energetic) eternity and resurrection, hence look forward to the next round
or "set of lessons" if one prefers.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 18, 2019, 06:03:52 PM
Archimid, I have solar and I will have two power walls installed soon...I think...tesla wait...
It is damn expensive even with subsidies  but I am amazed at how much power a standard house sized system produces. We have lots of sun so solar works well here. I didn't install solar to get an edge on anyone post collapse however , I installed it to avoid using fossil fuel and if I paid too much maybe that will somehow help this technology expand. Early adopters pay extra .
 I think collapse is just a giant unknown. Maybe in some sort of financial soft collapse where unemployment gets very high, and food prices inflate, and property values collapse but civil order maintains a solar /battery system and a small farm would make life easier/cheaper.
 If social order were to collapse a small farm ( easy food ) solar and batteries ,let alone a tesla in the garage, are all just going to get you shot.
 Primitivism and some very remote location with water is about your only recourse in a fight for survival. You better have a very big jar of get tough pills if everyone goes apeshit crazy and their guns come out. Defending material possessions will likely just get you killed.
 So I envision some financial crisis is the trigger for a downsized version of modern life that will last until the oil finally runs out. Deep poverty will force us to live in small groups that can be somewhat self sufficient . The small groups that form in the depression will be the place that can teach future survival and primitive skills. People around here will learn to leach acorns.
 
 
 
 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on July 18, 2019, 07:40:46 PM
Solar energy is not only distributed daily but also seasonally. Seasonal distribution gets stronger the further away one moves from the Equator. That’s why heating with solar PV and batteries is not possible in many places where you really need to heat buildings not just for comfort but for survival. Heating with PV in these locations is not just a bad idea, it is a mathematical impossibility even when using heat pumps.

For reference a link to European PV potential maps https://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvg_download/map_index_c.html

See how parts of Scandinavia has similar PV potential to Central Europe. However up north solar energy is received during long summer days while peak demand is during dark winter months. Storage would need to cover several months of cold weather demand.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on July 18, 2019, 07:56:00 PM
I live at 39.3 deg N latitude. I have a grid-tied, net-metered 7 kW array and electric heat pumps.  And a wood burning stove.  I don't use very much electricity off the grid for heating in the winter.  If I had a decent sized battery I could stay warm and use no electricity off the grid. I live in a neighborhood with lots of mature trees and scavenge, cut, split and stack all my own wood for free.  Not that that has much to do with surviving a true collapse.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 08:03:16 PM
However up north solar energy is received during long summer days while peak demand is during dark winter months. Storage would need to cover several months of cold weather demand.

Thank you. This is what I tried to explain, but obviously Archimid will never understand, although it is pretty simple stuff.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 08:05:03 PM
I live at 39.3 deg N latitude. I have a grid-tied, net-metered 7 kW array and electric heat pumps.  And a wood burning stove.  I don't use very much electricity off the grid for heating in the winter.  If I had a decent sized battery I could stay warm and use no electricity off the grid. I live in a neighborhood with lots of mature trees and scavenge, cut, split and stack all my own wood for free.  Not that that has much to do with surviving a true collapse.

That's it. That's why I suggested looking up coppicing. In NH midlatitudes solar alone is not a solution in case of real problems. In wood you should trust.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 08:15:01 PM
One more simple maths exercise for people with basic maths knowledge:

https://www.ovoenergy.com/guides/energy-guides/how-much-heating-energy-do-you-use.html

In the UK and France (not very harsh climates as far as winter is concerned) they use 133 kWh / m2 for heating. Basically the heating season is half a year so they use about 0,7 kWh per m2 per day to heat. If you decided to heat only a 20m2 room, you'd use 20*0,7 =14 kWh per day. Ok, put some clothes on, so you use only half of that, 7 kWh per day. Wonderful, your Powerwall will last almost 2 days. And then you wait for the Sun to come up the next 2-3 weeks in the middle of winter. Good luck with that.

better get some wood instead
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 18, 2019, 08:45:29 PM
So much is dependent upon location. Around here demand spikes in the summer on hot days with lots of sun. On a daily basis demand peaks in the late afternoon/ evening so grid suppliers are switching to TOU (time of use) rate plans that increase during high demand hours. So the energy from solar that is produced from 10 am till 2 pm when you feed the grid is worth less than the energy you draw off the grid as the sun goes down. So batteries are a way to flatten out costs on very short term basis. The power wall dumps most of it's stored power back onto the grid every day and you as an owner cannot control whether you have 100% or 15% stored power when the power goes down unless you know a day in advance... Fat chance. So battery power in Calif. with subsidies is kind of a grab bag in a blackout if your sole purpose is emergency power.
 Puerto Rico isn't 39.3 north latitude and Archimid would on a crowded island have a whole set of problems and not the same problems of Northern Europe. We can't know how someone in a different culture and a totally different climate would address collapse. Archimid might know Puerto Rico better than the rest of us and after watching a big Huricane or two rip through maybe he also has a small view into collapse ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: El Cid on July 18, 2019, 09:23:27 PM

 Puerto Rico isn't 39.3 north latitude and Archimid would on a crowded island have a whole set of problems and not the same problems of Northern Europe. We can't know how someone in a different culture and a totally different climate would address collapse. Archimid might know Puerto Rico better than the rest of us and after watching a big Huricane or two rip through maybe he also has a small view into collapse ?

well, i did not know he was from Puerto Rico. Sure as hell, you don't need much heating there :) But anywhere in the NH midlatitudes, solar won't cover you during winter, not even one tenth of the way. That is 1000% sure. If you prepare for collapse (and presumably this thread is about that) you might as well forget solar (other than lighting) and concentrate on wood. That is why I emphasized coppicing. That is an ancient but very useful method of forest management. I do coppice some of my trees, so i have first hand knowledge...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bligh8 on July 18, 2019, 09:23:42 PM
Bruce....your remarks are not far from wrong about PR

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/puerto-rico-is-in-chaos-and-some-worry-continued-instability-is-a-major-threat/ar-AAEwpoi?ocid=spartandhp

Puerto Rico is in chaos, and some worry continued instability is a major threat

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico —Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans have been taking to the blue cobblestone streets of the old city here demanding that Gov. Ricardo Rosselló resign amid allegations of corruption and the revelation of a scandalous group chat involving his inner circle. The protests, increasingly intense, are an outgrowth of widespread indignation that has challenged his administration’s already tenuous credibility and imperiled the distribution of needed federal aid to a territory still reeling from disaster. .. more within the article
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 18, 2019, 10:38:00 PM
He archimid, everything ok ? Are there some riots in Puerto Rico for the moment ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 19, 2019, 12:37:36 AM
Once upon a time I found myself in the Netherlands for a few years and bought a farm house that had been built in the mid 19th century. It gave some insight as to how people stayed warm w/o electricity.

The living / sleeping quarters were all in one room with a central fireplace. The beds were closets around the world and perimeter of the room, each big enough for two adults and small enough so that body heat helped keep the compartment warm.

If you weren't married, you probably wound up sharing a bed with a sibling or two.

During winter, the cows came into an adjacent part of the house where they ate hay and provided more heat. During the daytime, people were doing physical labor of some sort to help stay warm.

Just an anecdote. It was not so long ago in the distant past that people lived w/o electricity.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 19, 2019, 01:12:34 AM
In the 1990's I (family of 4) lived off-grid at 43.7 N, generating about 1kwh on a sunny winter day with solar panels on the roof, which was my average daily usage.  Our electricity 'sinks' were the water pump (about 50 m down a 125 m deep ['artesian'] well) and a European-built high-efficiency full-sized refrigerator.  In the winter, I used an old chest freezer parked (unplugged) outside the north wall for freezing and I daily rotated gallon jugs of frozen water into the refrigerator for electricity-free fresh food storage.  My 'marine deep-cycle lead-acid' batteries had to be fairly well charged for the water pump to start, so I stored 400 liters in the top floor for 'bad days' that was plumbed into the house plumbing. (Worst case, and before the well was drilled, I walked a half kilometer to our neighbor's hand pump on his deep well.)  Heating was via an Amish-built wood cook stove.  A fungus is killing mature beech trees (actually making the wood brittle so they 'break', but not killing roots), so I never lacked recently fallen trees on my 20 acres (8 ha). 

My garden fed me for a couple weeks each year.  So don't count on me for survival!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 19, 2019, 01:39:28 AM
What are we "prepping" for?


If the grid works intermittently batteries and solar/wind turbines should smooth out some of the dips. State infrastructure will decay rapidly as hoarding replaces industry. Pockets of resistance to governments that can no longer provide security, sustenance or sustainability will be dealt with harshly - until they can't be dealt with at all.
Then the grid disintegrates.


When the grid is down permanently I can't believe that any State of any size will remain viable. Mad Max - with some generations existing on salvage, followed by or concurrent with some Neolithic/Paleolithic mix.


How many generations before we see successful City States capable of perpetuating themselves? How many more generations while unwashed "hill people" swarm, conquering and destroying all that the "civilized" have built and hoarded?


Teach your children welding. Teach them about germs. Assume they'll be migratory. Demonstrate reciprocity and affability. Teach them to repair, reuse, repurpose.
With great good luck your line might possibly survive.


Without an almost permanent grid we lose the internet. Paper books will be hoarded as the only source of stored knowledge. Wise men and wise women will be seen as wonderful assets - until something goes wrong and they're seen as witches and demons.


I see a massive bottleneck coming from which our species may or may not survive.
Preparations made now may or may not help. :'(
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 19, 2019, 01:57:39 AM
It's a big problem that there no big stocks of printed books any more. Stocks are kept at a minimum. There is so much knowledge only available electronically it's not even funny any more....
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 19, 2019, 10:53:49 AM
But anywhere in the NH midlatitudes, solar won't cover you during winter, not even one tenth of the way. That is 1000% sure.

This is simply not true. It is simply a matter of having a sufficiently large a array pointed in the right direction, a sufficiently large battery and a sufficiently low consumption.

Quote
If you prepare for collapse (and presumably this thread is about that) you might as well forget solar (other than lighting) and concentrate on wood

It doesn't require much to know this is horrible advise. For a prepping situation you should have solar, batteries, wood and a fossil fuel generator to top off in emergencies.

Solar energy will cover all BASIC energy needs almost year round and during winter, if your neighbors took all the wood, it may keep you alive.


He archimid, everything ok ? Are there some riots in Puerto Rico for the moment ?

yeah, thanks for asking, I'm unaffected by the protest. People are mad but that is almost normal here.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 19, 2019, 11:20:09 AM
Quote
Archimid might know Puerto Rico better than the rest of us and after watching a big Huricane or two rip through maybe he also has a small view into collapse ?

I did live through local, insulated, temporary collapse. No power, no water, no accessible roads, only one radio station, no TV, no internet, no banks to get cash, for weeks and months. It sucked, but I did learn a lot from it.

The most important lesson I confirmed? All my prepping will be moot in the face of global permanent collapse. It will suck. Life will be completely different.

I also learned that preparation gives you an advantage. Every bit of preparation multiplies your well being during collapse. Of all the preparation you can do, Energy is the most important. If you have energy then getting everything else is simpler.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 19, 2019, 12:28:52 PM
It is obvious that having a source of energy such as solar power, however limited in power and varying availability at different times of the year, is a damn sight better than not having it at all.

And using solar power for air conditioning is dumb. You can have windows that open and shut. You can adjust your life style to the climate. I worked close to the lakeshore in Malawi for nearly 4 years in the years B.A.C. (Before Air Conditioning). Although it was not official any more, essentially in the hot season we worked what was known as Hot Station Hours. Unlike the words of the song, we Mad Dogs and Englishmen did not go out in the mid-day sun.

The siesta is a practical adjustment to climate, not a symbol of laziness as believed by ignorant North Europeans.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 19, 2019, 12:44:41 PM
Quote
The siesta is a practical adjustment to climate, not a symbol of laziness as believed by ignorant North Europeans.

Correct. The same as daily showers. Down here not showering daily is offensive to others and a reason for shaming. It makes sense. In the constant heat of 18N a person will develop bad odors very quickly. Also showers cool down the body. Several showers a day are not uncommon during very hot, active days.

However, when it is very cold, there is no sweat, no humidity. The skin is very dry. No intrinsic offensive odors accumulate. Also showering means either losing body heat to cold water or spending lots of energy to heat the water.  It makes sense that daily showers are not required.

It is amazing how the climate shapes our society and behavior and how oblivious we are to it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 19, 2019, 12:50:39 PM
However, when it is very cold, there is no sweat, no humidity. The skin is very dry. No intrinsic offensive odors accumulate. Also showering means either losing body heat to cold water or spending lots of energy to heat the water.  It makes sense that daily showers are not required.

It is amazing how the climate shapes our society and behavior and how oblivious we are to it.

Guess again regarding sweat! When is cold you dress with multiple layers. Unless you stand still and not work or move from place to place, you sweat! You sweat at -40C unless you are freezing with a southern’s clothing preferences.

:) I have been at both 45C and -40C ...

And body odors have a lot to do with food preferences :) ... but I digress... cheers
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 19, 2019, 01:02:57 PM
Body odors are due to bacteria that lives on our skin. Food choices will alter the composition of our secretions, which in turn may alter our skin flora. But the smell of that flora is dependent on what the normal flora is composed of and their metabolism. Cold temperatures slow down their metabolism and warm temperatures speed it up. Same as farts.

You could eat nothing but rose petals and honey, if the skin flora that prefers that kind of sweat has a stinking by product, you will stink once their metabolism is accelerated.

That said, I wouldn't doubt if certain foods maximize the chances of non stinky bacteria.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 19, 2019, 01:03:55 PM
Quote
Archimid might know Puerto Rico better than the rest of us and after watching a big Huricane or two rip through maybe he also has a small view into collapse ?

I did live through local, insulated, temporary collapse. No power, no water, no accessible roads, only one radio station, no TV, no internet, no banks to get cash, for weeks and months. It sucked, but I did learn a lot from it.

The most important lesson I confirmed? All my prepping will be moot in the face of global permanent collapse. It will suck. Life will be completely different.

I also learned that preparation gives you an advantage. Every bit of preparation multiplies your well being during collapse. Of all the preparation you can do, Energy is the most important. If you have energy then getting everything else is simpler.
Archimid, I recall your posts during the Maria aftermath quite well. Thanks for those updates, indeed this was a good (very sad) example of local and temporary collapse, under the auspices of the great USA no less. When TSHTF and no one comes to help, it will of course be many times worse.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 19, 2019, 02:05:41 PM
Could the best prepping be adapting to the new, and stopping bad habits?
Not that long ago (and still nowadays) there were other totally fulfilling ways of living. And please, forget the Amish stereotype. Three short stories:
In 1997 a was part of the crew of a three masts ship. We went to the Marshall Islands to take back some islander families to their old island. As they had been all relocated when the nuclear tests were performed. After USA cleaned the beaches of their old island and declared them radioactive free.
I was on duty the first night we were in the atoll and an old islander, with a bit too much alcohol in him, came to tell me that they didn't need any help. The only thing they needed was us all, the 'civilized occidentals' leaving those islands for ever and letting them live their traditional way. The arrival of modernity was the end of their paradise.He was crying.

About 12 years ago one of my teachers, an old shepherd, told me how with 100 sheep he was able to build his house, marry, and send their two daughters to university. An orchard and a bit of communal work was in the mix. By the time he was telling this to me, he also said that these days, with 100 sheep, he would not be able to earn any money. Because of how the system works with grants and tons of bureaucracy. Also, wool has no market nowadays, overtaken by plastic fibers.

At about the same time, another of my teachers, also an old man who worked in the fields since he was 6, was always complaining about modern agriculture. He told me how when he was young there were no pests. Fruits and vegetables had plenty of flavor and life was hard but easier. He's favorite saying was: "this all went fucked when the first tractor came in, bringing poisons and chemicals to add to the soils".

Prepping is mainly psychological, we can live happy lives with very little.

(I live now in Asturias mountains, north Spain, very rainy, green as Ireland. Have a washing machine, a big fridge, the laptop and a few electric tools. My PV array is 2.700Wp and 900A -C100 batteries (48V). This is my second year here and I haven't seeing my batteries under 90% capacity. Adapt, adapt and adapt
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 19, 2019, 02:36:17 PM
Thanks for your interesting post A_f.
It occurs to me life might be better this way, at least for most people, hard but easier - but this lifestyle cannot support 8 or 10 billion people.
The "good" news is that post collapse there will not be 10 billion people. The supply chains and intensive agriculture will not be there to feed such a number of mostly city dwellers. So once the dust settles down and the survivors somehow stabilize, the simpler lifestyles you describe will be able to support quite a few.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Klondike Kat on July 19, 2019, 03:00:21 PM
A_f,
Very nice.  We can adapt to a new way of life.  These Mad Max scenarios seem rather extreme and unfounded.  Even in the worst of times, society has never degenerated into such chaos.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on July 19, 2019, 04:02:07 PM
This is maybe why el cid and archimid can not agree. And this is not even for the north, it's near Brussels. They only have a short winter. In the winter the production from that solar installation is only 1/10 from the production in summer. If you go further north the days get shorter in winter .I think in Puerto Rico almost all days are the same.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on July 19, 2019, 04:36:18 PM
A_f,
Very nice.  We can adapt to a new way of life.  These Mad Max scenarios seem rather extreme and unfounded.  Even in the worst of times, society has never degenerated into such chaos.

We're talking about unprecedently bad times to come. Look at the example of the Donner Party. for how norms shifted when survival was on the line.

Imagine the jobs of the people working the gas Chambers and crematoria at Birkenau. How was your day honey? Oh, pretty good...we hit our quota of 3,000 twenty minutes early and the Commandant treated us to a case of Spaten and bratwurst.

Must have been some bizarre coffee break discussions.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 19, 2019, 05:09:40 PM
Rich, Maybe collapse is just to difficult to talk about , we all know very difficult times are likely to arrive soon enough . But for the next couple weeks could you please keep the hitler, concentration camp stuff to yourself ?
 I try to think about how I might make someone's future a more livable one, maybe just dreaming .
Maybe rationalizing. But I get a little light from people like Aporia-filia, that not all futures are unbearable. Maybe even a better place. Think of something nice , Neven needs us to take care of ourselves for awhile.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 19, 2019, 05:41:45 PM
<snippage>
So once the dust settles down and the survivors somehow stabilize, the simpler lifestyles you describe will be able to support quite a few.

I try to imagine what happens to the good people who live in the Bronx, New York, for example.

<snippage>
In the constant heat of 18N a person will develop bad odors very quickly. Also showers cool down the body.
Anecdotal:
It is summer here (53N) and I haven't showered the last 3 months; when my skin organ is left alone with all the beneficial micro-organisms, I don't stink. I change my clothes if they stink. My skin is delightfully soft and also healthy. It could be the food but I do eat meat (organic).
Just my experience. Maybe drinking beer is good after all ;)

---

@Rich this thread has given me the opportunity to post my opinions. Thank you. (also for not claiming the thread).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 20, 2019, 01:37:53 AM
This is maybe why el cid and archimid can not agree. And this is not even for the north, it's near Brussels. They only have a short winter. In the winter the production from that solar installation is only 1/10 from the production in summer. If you go further north the days get shorter in winter .I think in Puerto Rico almost all days are the same.

Thanks for trying to help finding an agreement. But I am aware that solar insolation gets weaker at higher latitudes. I'm not challenging that notion.

What El Cid is not getting is that in an emergency situation energy used gets rationed and cut to a minimum.  13.5 kWh is a huge energy reserve if used correctly, specially if the sun can replenish even a few kWh a day.

I'm not saying, use solar as primary source of heat for a modern high north home under normal usage scenario. Sadly that is an unsolved problem as far as I know.

I'm saying that in a global collapse situation, having even trickle of power can mean the difference between life and death. I'm saying that a home equipped with solar and batteries can serve as a last resort heat energy source during winter. The rest of the year it can serve as a primary source of energy independent of the grid.

This is not even controversial.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on July 20, 2019, 01:46:05 AM

Anecdotal:
It is summer here (53N) and I haven't showered the last 3 months; when my skin organ is left alone with all the beneficial micro-organisms, I don't stink. I change my clothes if they stink. My skin is delightfully soft and also healthy. It could be the food but I do eat meat (organic).
Just my experience. Maybe drinking beer is good after all ;)


I believe you. However, come down to 18N during summer and lets do some work outside. You will be begging for a shower, just to cool down. Then after a few hours you will be sweating again thinking hard about another shower.

Also, while I don't doubt that the right food will  minimize the growth of smelly bacteria, your bacteria changes according to the environment you are in. So in the wrong environment the  same habits that let you stay naturally fresh might work against you. I hope not tho. The way you describe it sounds like a very pleasant way of living.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 20, 2019, 03:54:25 AM
In California and Nevada it's illegal to heat a home or business using electricity as resistant heat. Heat pumps are so inefficient from +9C that resistant heat is actually a better choice!
In the event of a collapse, those few with the knowledge and tools to repair heat pumps will, after a short time, run out of the materials required to make these repairs.


Homes in Canada were viable well before electricity was available. I lived in a 5 chimney home that originally boasted 8 fireplaces. I'm sure it was comfortable even on the coldest nights, but 2 of the smallest bedrooms were originally reserved for servants. It takes a fair amount of sweat to fuel 8 fire places without chainsaws or tractors - and when the local trees have been chopped the groundsmen will need to venture ever further in their quest for fuel.


The First Nations people that lived here dwelt in 3 to 5 fire longhouses. They ended up clearing vast acreage for their corn fields while providing fuel for their fires. After a few generations they moved on as the villages weren't sustainable.


Migrants out west built very well insulated "soddies", burning cattle poo to cook their food & body heat to survive the winters. No trees, no electricity - no running water, and some even survived the winters.


Harvesting pond ice for ice boxes only went out here in the early 50's. Insulated in straw it survived through the year. Everyone can learn to saw ice, store it, and place it in a refrigerator. Not 1 in a thousand can repair an electrical refrigerator - and no one will have the needed parts and gasses after a very few years. - when the pond no longer freezes, move north.


If you can build a PV system from scratch then relying on the system makes sense.


I could build a thermal, micro hydro or wind system using lead acid batteries and auto generators, but I'm not sure it would be worth my time or energy. I'd be more likely to build solar heaters or a solar distillery.


Recall that we're not discussing "emergency situations", rather a new normal that will last many generations. We need solutions we can pass onto our children, and their children.


IMHO
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 20, 2019, 06:24:07 AM
Earth Abides is a book that has much influenced my outlook on survival. (I first read it as a young teen at my older brother's urging.)  From wikipedia:
Quote
Earth Abides is a 1949 post-apocalyptic science fiction novel by American writer George R. Stewart. It tells the story of the fall of civilization from deadly disease and its rebirth. The story was set in the United States in the 1940s in Berkeley, California and told by a character, Isherwood Williams, who emerges from isolation in the mountains to find almost everyone dead.

Earth Abides won the inaugural International Fantasy Award in 1951. It was included in Locus Magazine's list of best All Time Science Fiction in 1987 and 1998[2] and was a nominee to be entered into the Prometheus Hall of Fame.[3]
Many of the scenarios in the book wouldn't work today, but the idea of societal transition feels robust.  Something like: First generation survivors will use solar panels, crossbows and clothing from stores.  Second generation survivors can read books.  Third generation survivors will have their myths about how things work.  Our prep work is to make possible 2nd and 3rd generations.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on July 20, 2019, 08:06:59 AM
AshesAshes has a great episode on prepping and the coming collapse :

Quote
Episode 77 - Coping With Collapse
Awareness of the systemic threats to our world comes at a cost. Often, that cost includes feelings of isolation, existential dread, depression, shock, and other uncomfortable realities. But these emotions do not define the final stage of our journeys. This week we read from listener emails, each describing a different point along the path of coming to terms with uncomfortable truths, and from these we learn that there is a way to move forward. Through confronting the denial that our society wants us to consume, pushing past hopelessness, and expressing our grief, we can begin to reconnect with other humans, build communities, "prep" for the future, and build a better world together.

https://ashesashes.org/blog/episode-77-coping-with-collapse
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: interstitial on July 20, 2019, 08:25:09 AM
Heat pumps are so inefficient from +9C that resistant heat is actually a better choice!


Things especially technology changes with time. Efficiency ratings on new pumps is superior down to about -4 C or so depending on the specific model purchased. Further new heat pumps have resistance heaters built in for when the difference between outdoor and indoor temperatures is too much for providing all of your heat with the heat pump. The resistance heater supplements the heat pump so it is still more efficient than strait resistance heating. If you live in a cold climate using ground as a source is far more efficient and four or 5 feet underground temperatures don't change much from season to season.


For prepping everything but biofuel will be unfixable soon after collapse.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: interstitial on July 20, 2019, 08:31:48 AM
I just looked online the first heat pump I looked at the inexpensive one from a big box store was rated down to 5F or -15C.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tunnelforce9 on July 20, 2019, 08:48:50 AM
One of the things you want to check is the noise levels, cheap models are notoriously loud.
Another thing you need to keep in mind is that you'll need floor heating and very good isolation in your home.

One way you can check if your home is properly isolated is to put your heater on at 55C (if you have a central heater you can change water temp settings to 55C) and check if your house is warming properly, this is because the heat from the pump is around 55C
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 20, 2019, 09:22:12 AM
Very good post Terry.
People have survived in forest environments in cold northern climates and will do so again, despite the leftovers of the collapsing civilization - eroded topsoil, armed marauders and pillagers, meltdown radiation, forest fires as the flora adapts itself to the changing climate, etc., which is why I think humans will not go extinct post-collapse.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 20, 2019, 09:23:06 AM
Earth Abides is a book that has much influenced my outlook on survival. (I first read it as a young teen at my older brother's urging.)  From wikipedia:
Quote
Earth Abides is a 1949 post-apocalyptic science fiction novel by American writer George R. Stewart. It tells the story of the fall of civilization from deadly disease and its rebirth. The story was set in the United States in the 1940s in Berkeley, California and told by a character, Isherwood Williams, who emerges from isolation in the mountains to find almost everyone dead.

Earth Abides won the inaugural International Fantasy Award in 1951. It was included in Locus Magazine's list of best All Time Science Fiction in 1987 and 1998[2] and was a nominee to be entered into the Prometheus Hall of Fame.[3]
Many of the scenarios in the book wouldn't work today, but the idea of societal transition feels robust.  Something like: First generation survivors will use solar panels, crossbows and clothing from stores.  Second generation survivors can read books.  Third generation survivors will have their myths about how things work.  Our prep work is to make possible 2nd and 3rd generations.

What a concise synopsis!
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 20, 2019, 09:48:04 AM
Re: "everything but biofuel will be unfixable"

wait, what ?

solar hot water is even easier than biofuell, solar furnace is harder but doable.
thermoelectric is not too difficult.
windpower on small scale (say 1500watts) is doable

look at some of these sites

https://otherpower.com/

https://www.notechmagazine.com/category/obsolete-technology

https://solar.lowtechmagazine.com/obsolete-technology.html

sidd


sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 20, 2019, 06:28:53 PM
sidd


It you ever get around to poking about in Death Valley, Scotty's Castle has a solar hot water/heating system that had been installed in the 1930s and was viable the last time I was by.
Brazed 1/2" copper lines with a 3/4" header above and below covered with a single pane of glass.
100% gravity feed for hot water and old fashioned radiators to heat the building during nights in the winter.


Not the most efficient system, but if you've plenty of copper tubing, glass and land who gives a damn about efficiency.


Death Valley Scotty was quite the character, the Musk of his age. ;)
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 20, 2019, 08:34:55 PM
Solar hot water is so easy that i am always surprised that it is not much more frequently used. I know of several installs because I make it a point to suggest and help install. But the rate of utilization is still very low. Now these days, the cost of factory manufactured PV has dropped so much that heat from resistance heaters powered by PV is actually cheaper than from evacuated tube solar heat collectors. But for DIY, lo tech solar hot water is still the best.

I know of a couple four season greenhouse operators who use exclusively solar for heat, even in midwest winter. Hang the panels vertical facing south so snow drops off, and overbuild so they have to dump heat or shade, or turn off some collectors in summer. Few thousand gallon insulated water tanks for storage suppling hydronic heated  concrete slabs. Keeps going even in extended weeks long winter overcast. It's surprising how much heat you can collect even on winter overcast days.

Keeping livestock warm is another application. The barn cats love it too, make a little nest on top of the storage tanks, and some of the chickens flutter up there sometimes. (No, the cats dont kill the chickens ... actually the roosters put more of a beating on the cats than vice versa.)

I use solar for some process heat and preheat, saves a bunch of fuel consumption. I know of a some other farmers doing the same. This year one of them is running solar heated air thru his compost pile and another is experimenting with predrying oilseed in a similar way. 

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 20, 2019, 09:19:32 PM
Solar hot water is so easy that i am always surprised that it is not much more frequently used.

True, while there are places, especially in the middle east, including if not especially in Israel, where "felt" most homes/houses have such an installation + reservoir on the roofs.

I personally prefer solar panels and a small marine wind turbine (not so noisy) because water and its weight on the roof is not something that makes me feel comfortable.

Last but not least, liquid system can/do leak from time to time and that's something that costs perhaps in times where money is sparse?

This is not meant to value one or another solution, it's just about personal preference.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 20, 2019, 09:59:20 PM
In Israel rooftop solar water heating is mandated by law since 1976 with some exceptions, and ~85% of residential buildings are equipped with such systems.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 20, 2019, 11:03:32 PM
In Israel rooftop solar water heating is mandated by law since 1976 with some exceptions, and ~85% of residential buildings are equipped with such systems.
That's a very reasonable regulation!
(It's nice to think nice thoughts about the Israeli Government) ::)


Are "swamp coolers" at least promoted by the government? They cut summer power use to a fraction of that used by ACs, and will cool a building to very close to wet bulb temperatures.


sidd
I've adjusted the controls on a large So. Utah home that was both heated and cooled by a fairly narrow (15 ft.) greenhouse attached to the southern wall of the house.
They used growing grape vines outside to restrict the sun in summer.
In Winter the doors & windows were opened, then in summer the heated air was directed through the attic to vents on the far side & make up air filled the house from an opened basement door.
Add a small swamp cooler and it stayed comfy all year.


Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 20, 2019, 11:16:05 PM
Terry, TBH it's not the current government that set this mandate, though this one deserves credit for setting aggressive goals for solar PV deployment (while taking the country in an unthinkable direction).
In the Israeli south there is use of "desert coolers", basically a fan and water injection system that outputs very cold air at little energy cost.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 21, 2019, 12:04:58 AM
oren


A swamp cooler simply keeps pads damp as a central fan blows the chilled air into the building. More complicated versions use a heat exchanger to recycle the home's air through the chilled air in the cooler itself.
In the pre-electric days in the Mojave Desert small hand filled units were used as refrigerators that would keep your beer cool. 8)



Are you living in one of the more arid regions?


If so you might want to investigate reverse chimney designs. No fans, simply a very small water pump to return any unused water to the top of the chimney.


I've enjoyed these in Arizona, Nevada and So. Utah. EZ to build and maintain, they will bring a large area to just above wet bulb temperature if that is desired, and wet bulb temperatures in the desert will usually leave you shivering.


Other than the small pump there are no moving parts and they're most effective when most needed.


I'm sure the internet has examples.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 21, 2019, 01:31:55 AM
I understand that swamp coolers use a lot of water, and in arid places, added photovoltaic panels for extra electricity makes more sense than lowering the water table (or trucking in extra water).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 21, 2019, 02:17:57 AM
I understand that swamp coolers use a lot of water, and in arid places, added photovoltaic panels for extra electricity makes more sense than lowering the water table (or trucking in extra water).
Tor
They do use water, but not a great deal. A 1/8 inch copper supply tube is commonly used, and I've never seen or heard of one that went dry. Possibly a gallon/hr?


Some PV panels to spin the fan and pump the water (or a windmill if the water table isn't too low) will work better than many additional panels straining to keep an AC compressor pumping at the high pressures needed on a very hot day. It's these days that tear the guts out of an AC system, particularly air/air systems.


Remember that the water doesn't need to be potable for this use. The old Mojave refrigerators only held 1 quart at a time and were refilled 3 or 4 times a day. They had no capability for recycling any of the water and would keep milk from spoiling using straw filled burlap as "pads".


Just keeping yourself hydrated in the desert requires lots of potable water. If there's no reliable water source where you're at it's best to keep moving. We used to haul in 10 gallons/person/day and always ended up with more than we needed.


Gatorade 50/50 at ambient temperature was the preferred drink. :)


A double walled tent rigged with a 12 inch reverse chimney requires 5 gallons on gravity fed water/day. You won't catch cold inside, but it's a nice relief after a few hours in the sun. - That was in Death Valley in spring or fall.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: oren on July 21, 2019, 07:58:52 AM
oren

A swamp cooler simply keeps pads damp as a central fan blows the chilled air into the building. More complicated versions use a heat exchanger to recycle the home's air through the chilled air in the cooler itself.

Are you living in one of the more arid regions?
Turns out swamp cooler and desert cooler are different names for a similar device (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evaporative_cooler).

I live in Tel Aviv, one of the relatively saner parts of the country, but with an extremely humid summer climate, where if you lack A/C you're as good as dead. I recall the desert cooler from childhood visits to Eilat, Israel's southernmost city and a baking oven.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 21, 2019, 08:35:12 AM

Turns out swamp cooler and desert cooler are different names for a similar device (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evaporative_cooler).

I live in Tel Aviv, one of the relatively saner parts of the country, but with an extremely humid summer climate, where if you lack A/C you're as good as dead. I recall the desert cooler from childhood visits to Eilat, Israel's southernmost city and a baking oven.


Different names for the same device is certainly a possibility, in fact "desert cooler" makes much more sense since a swamp cooler certainly won't work in a swamp.


Regions that couple high heat with high humidity require AC today, and are liable to be unlivable in the not too distant future.


Keep your AC serviced, change the filter monthly & hope that the power stays on. :(


Best of luck with your election.
Terry

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 21, 2019, 09:54:49 AM
http://journeytoforever.org

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 21, 2019, 02:59:52 PM
Thank you Oren, very much appreciate you.
Thank you Sidd, that kind of knowledge that you share is something I love. Were you the one from whom I have this link?:

http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/buffalo/garden/garden.html

Thaks also Terry, reducing our consumption should be a must.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 21, 2019, 06:23:18 PM
Is 'collapse' meant only in human civilisation context?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 21, 2019, 06:35:55 PM
Is 'collapse' meant only in human civilisation context?
It could mean the joke's on us.

"collapse of stout party". It is said to be the punchline of a certain kind of ponderous and verbose joke that’s characteristic of the nineteenth century. It signals that the victim has realised he has been bested and is wilting in embarrassment and chagrin.

Nature won, we lost.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on July 21, 2019, 08:11:34 PM
Well, this precious bit of nature does not seem to have 'won,' nor have thousands of others, and millions more soon to similar disappear:

https://www.facebook.com/SESDTU/photos/a.2872085269483943/3593414087351054/?type=3&theater
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 21, 2019, 08:39:25 PM
Re: Buffalo Bird Woman's Garden

I have posted a link to that before, it is a wonderful book. But I am sure others have also.

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 22, 2019, 02:55:36 AM
Thank you Oren, very much appreciate you.
Thank you Sidd, that kind of knowledge that you share is something I love. Were you the one from whom I have this link?:

http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/buffalo/garden/garden.html (http://digital.library.upenn.edu/women/buffalo/garden/garden.html)

Thaks also Terry, reducing our consumption should be a must.
Thanks for the nod!


When the grid fails reducing consumption becomes a survival strategy, rather than an act of charity.
Climate refugees will eat their way through whatever stands in the way of feeding their young. Those defending what they see as theirs will resort to scorched earth policies to keep the invaders at bay, while marauders attempt to starve out the defenders.


Its happened many times before, just not at this scale. Joining Gerontocrat's Irregulars might be a better strategy than defending sidd or Bruce's bucolic communes?
Do we stop the downward spiral at the walled city stage, the tribal stage or the isolated family within a nebulous clan stage? Damned if I know. Damned if I know how to nudge the odds to favor an outlook that I'd prefer.


Staying alive is liable to become a full time job for much of the next generation. Perhaps the best we can do is to acquire, horde and diffuse knowledge. It's the only thing that Gerontocrat's minions can't steal.


Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 22, 2019, 05:58:08 AM
Re:  sidd or Bruce's bucolic communes

heeheehee

far from bucolic.

whatcha gonna do, seize the grain elevators ? thats what the government will do b4 you.

Gonna cruise the back roads looking for livestock and grain silos ? good luck with that

Cool, now you  few found a few hundred pigs in a barn, or a few thousand chickens,  whatcha gonna do with them ? You got slaughter faclities  and refrigeration ?

Mebbe you grabbed a reefer trailer fulla eggs. You gonna live off them ?

So you and a few buddies with weapons seize a few houses and rape all the women and kill all the men.

What next ? You know how to milk the cows ? You know where the chickens roost ? you know which silage is next in feeding mix ? You know to move the trailer at the top of the hill with the guinea hens ? You know which wells have sulfur in the water and which ones dont ?

You and your buddies will be dead before the first winter is done. Partly because the whole neighbourhood will have firearms trained on you and  trees and bridges down to stop you.  And they know the land much better than you.

Remember, everyone owns a firearm or more in dem dere hollers.

sidd
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 22, 2019, 08:31:21 AM
Whoa-Ha Pardner


I wouldn't last a month without the grid, and one thing I'm totally ignorant about is military matters. I'm barely of value in this iteration of society, and few "communes" have the resources to support an enfeebled old man.
The last only time they put me in charge of "Security" I forced all my muscle bound minions to wear polka dot vests, causing all but one to quit in disgust. I assigned him to the door and the weekend was a delight. Ha-Ha Mission accomplished!


It won't be me that sweeps down from the hills, nor those like me. We'll have been gone for sometime before things get bad. Few communities will be able to afford a high maintenance, guru despising wise ass who spends most of his time explaining to others why their ideas just won't work.


Hell, I don't understand why my present crowd puts up with me. I've ended so many's foolish dreams of "getting rich quick" by popping their half baked balloons that it's a wonder they don't mob the exits when I appear.


Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 22, 2019, 01:05:52 PM
"Staying alive is liable to become a full time job for much of the next generation. Perhaps the best we can do is to acquire, horde and diffuse knowledge. It's the only thing that Gerontocrat's minions can't steal."

I'm with that Terry, and if we want to think of Geron's minions, remember that only "guerra de guerrillas", since the Roman Empire and before, has been the only way to frustrate regular armies, as Sidd suggests.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 22, 2019, 08:39:21 PM
Another nice topic to discuss that will certainly lead to heated debate ;)

Let's assume that all negative feedbacks and consequences come true and our civilization is getting under serious pressure and danger to be vastly decimate but not extinct;

What exactly would global warming AKA man made climate change destroy???

IMO it will destroy the cause for itself, the so called civilization with all it's excesses!

And now the question that many won't like and that will hurt those who think that we humans
are important in an universal context and that we are the crown of creation.

I think that self-importance (the human race as a whole) is a huge part of the root-evil that brought
as where we are today.

Is that such a bad outlook if this sick system finally is doomed is flushed down the toilet ?

Interested to see feedback. Also if someone finds it interesting enough to open a separate thread, i won't. I'm more interest to know my companions in this forum and this i can learn from replies to such provocative questions that finally implies sanctioning of mass-extinction of a majority.

And before someone jumps to high, this is what is predicted in the holy bible, not that i believe every word in that book, but i just want to remind the too exited that this is the verdict of the god(s) many of us believe in.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on July 22, 2019, 08:59:14 PM
the inner explorations I have done have shown me there is only one of us , appearing in all our billions of guises . Not best to wish a large part of yourself dead . b.c.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 22, 2019, 10:37:01 PM
the inner explorations I have done have shown me there is only one of us , appearing in all our billions of guises . Not best to wish a large part of yourself dead . b.c.

Back to self-importance, many people were ready to die what they thought is a valuable cause.

I love life but won't cry the day i'm going on eternal holiday ;)

Don't get me wrong, i got your point and it's valid, just not mine. I believe that
each of us should learn an do our best but that we're indeed not even a dust-particle and very unimportant accordingly.

That means, if we don't exist nothing will change with the greater fate of the universe, not even our planet that will evaporate in around 2.5 Billion years anyways.

I think not holistic like whole body, whole humanity or hole earth but hole universe and we're just a blink of the size of a quark or even smaller in that context.

Result of this is one becomes able to smile about our poor attempts to make ourselves more important than other nothings and to make sure that this doesn't sound wrong, "Us" means all of us, just in various fields a different scales but nevertheless.

I often tell my grand-kids, admit your failure but don't be angry, neither with you nor with others while the latter is my most frequent fail.

Thanks for your feedback, very much appreciated.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on July 22, 2019, 10:42:07 PM
dust and yet the divine children of god .. gods ourselves .. Have I not said , ye are all gods ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 23, 2019, 01:44:30 AM
dust and yet the divine children of god .. gods ourselves .. Have I not said , ye are all gods ?

I read you ;)

just corrected the whole/hole errors thanks to Tor B. who made me aware

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: sidd on July 23, 2019, 07:00:56 AM
Re: "won't be me that sweeps down from the hills"

Now that's funny.  I had a conversation sorta like that with a member of the 0.01% (USA) wealth class.

First, some background,  older guy who grows potatoes and makes potato chips. I helped set him up with his own oilseed growin and crushing operation for oil for his potato chips The reason he is in that wealth bracket is that his land is next to some very, very valuable housing real estate, and developers have been beggin him to sell for decades. Last offer i heard was 140e6 USD, probably more now. But he don't need the money, been rich all his life, and he wants to keep making potato chips forawhile.  He's on the local council, so he blocks attempts to zone or tax him out, but his kids are gone and he knows that whoever inherits the property and the operation will sell out. That dont bother him too much. I reproduce the conversation as I recall.

He was telling me about the 0.1 % living in the lo class neighbourhood on one side of him who were complaining about the noise from choppers of the .01 %  on the other side. So i look at him and go, "Dude, you're in the 0.01 %"

He grinned and went, "Ya but I hate the choppers too. But I got animals that spook." Then he looked me in the eye and went, "Sidd, I know when you boys come down from the hills, I'll be one of the first against the wall or strung up a pole.  "

I said "You really think that's gonna happen ?"

He replied: "I'm amazed it hasn't already. We rich folk ran outta foreign parts to loot, it's getting too expensive, so now for forty year, we been looting the rural states and poor and lower middle class. It's coming. I might see it before I'm dead." He's over 80 years old, but in very good shape, could probably work me to the ground trying to keep up with him.

That guy believes that armed revolution is gonna happen, probably led by rural communities. But he ain't hunkering down, he ain't building no safe spaces or bunkers. He says when we come for him, he'll drink a shot and eat a bullet.

sidd




Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 23, 2019, 11:20:51 AM
 He is 80 after all..
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on July 23, 2019, 12:54:09 PM
As I see it, god is a narcotic idea that gives comfort and security in front of the unknown, relief pain, ease future views,...it has also been used to domesticate people, to strengthen tribalism,...
It obviously has an evil side on it.
But, are there any thing intrinsically good or bad??? It all depends on the position of the observer.
And the observer/observed would be responding to their genes/environment.
How is not just pure hubris and a proof of being our creation that god is always humanoid???
The way humanity behaves as a species is more like Icarus, not because of an ill evil self-importance. I'm sure the rest of living creatures do also have a lot of self-importance, they just are not as corrosive to the environment as we are.
I'm afraid that as a species, we behave like a cancer. All body resources redirected to drive our crazy exponential growth, cutting communication with the body we were born. That's way I think we need evolution to give us a nudge
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 23, 2019, 01:43:24 PM

That guy believes that armed revolution is gonna happen, probably led by rural communities. But he ain't hunkering down, he ain't building no safe spaces or bunkers. He says when we come for him, he'll drink a shot and eat a bullet.

sidd

That is so certain that i would rather use the term "knows" instead of "believes"

This is one of the few things i'm totally sure about it. BTW at age 12 I once predicted the downfall of the USSR and guess what the echo was.

This kind of development is so 100% logical and at times i compare the underlaying laws of social movements with "laws of physics"

Like laws of physics it can't really be discussed, what has to happen will happen.

BTW "they" know it's coming, they already start to deprive the average citizens of their
chance to get to save heavens.

I. They reduce cash to whatever minimum they can get away with, Sweden is in the lead AFAIK
(but there you also need kind of written consent to be save from charges after making love)

II. The limit the use of cash-purchases, in Spain it's down to 1'500€ and above that is fined

III. They restrict purchases of precious metal physically to a fraction in value, Germany down to
2'000€ coming form 10'000 coming from 15'000€. Applies to cash purchased but then that means
all gold owners of relevance are know by name and once gold prohibition would be implied again
it will be easy.

IV. They steal the hard earned and taxed savings from most people with small savings by cutting
interest rates down to below inflation rate.

This list can be continued and currency reforms are waiting for those with cash savings etc. etc.

My only concern are my family because I'm quite done with any illusions but the younger are still
dreaming full of optimism, naivety and idealism and it's a difficult task to warn them in a way to not spoil there youth and let them have their good time.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 23, 2019, 03:50:59 PM
philo
I don't think there will be any large uprising until we lose the grid. We made it through the 30's and the 60's.


Were you 12 when The Third Wave was published? Toffler not only predicted the end of the Soviet Union, he followed that with a prediction that the US would follow.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 23, 2019, 06:50:12 PM
About time (the USA follows). So many USA inhabitants are not living the 'American Dream'. It's getting worse all the time.

edit: @philopek Great post in my opinion.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 23, 2019, 07:58:13 PM
philo
I don't think there will be any large uprising until we lose the grid. We made it through the 30's and the 60's.


Were you 12 when The Third Wave was published? Toffler not only predicted the end of the Soviet Union, he followed that with a prediction that the US would follow.
Terry

In 1980 i was 30 years old but did not read "Toffler's" wave theories.

The U.S. IS following at this very moment, only that it will take time to hit the bottom. The process is ongoing and will reach the bottom in about 170 years from now, self-evidently with many ups and downs and a lot of hiding of the true state of the Union ;)

Also we have to distinguish between the loss of sustainability or profitability or growth if someone prefers that term and the political downfall as a Country.

The later will take the longest due to accumulation of wealth as well due to a  huge advantage in military power for which it will take years until it's weakened to a point that will matter (make the country vulnerable to be toppled)

I agree about the uprisings happening once we lost the grid but who tells you that it will not be soon ;) ;) ;) :D :D :D

I expect that within the next 2-18 years, now it depends whether that is soon for you, for me this is soon, especially if i look at my grandchildren of age 7-19, they will be in the middle of everything during that time frame.

If you have reason for a later happening, I'm very interested to hear new input on the matter.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 23, 2019, 10:26:37 PM
I find it interesting that this thread goes from the technical merits of heat pumps to the philosophical need to recognize ones mortality.

The latter is better prep for the collapse IMHO.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DaveHitz on July 24, 2019, 04:44:47 AM
What exactly would global warming AKA man made climate change destroy???

...

Is that such a bad outlook if this sick system finally is doomed is flushed down the toilet?

I don't mourn the "sick system" being flushed. I mourn all of the knowledge that will be lost. I love the idea that there is intelligence in the universe seeking to understand the universe. It's possible that there are other intelligent species in the universe, but it's also possible that there aren't. Fermi's equation has too many unknowns. Lots and lots of suitable planets! But what are the barriers to creation of intelligence and to its long term survival? I'm pretty confident that the universe is full of bacteria. Not sure at all about intelligence.

If I knew there were other smart entities out there, I would care less about our own loss. I don't even care if it is humans who survive or our AI/Robot "descendants." As a person, I am comfortable with the idea of death and happy that I have a daughter who will succeed me. I'm willing to take that same view about the human species.

Here's hoping that our AI/Robot descendants can handle warm temperatures.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 24, 2019, 07:18:13 AM
@DaveHitz
So we (techno 'civilisation') can continue our imaginary supremacy over all other lifeforms indefinitely?
So we go on techno killing and destroying, by pushing buttons, and never have to learn? No limits eh?

It's almost as if people see technology as magic. Intelligence is not the same as technological !
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 24, 2019, 01:36:28 PM

In 1980 i was 30 years old but did not read "Toffler's" wave theories.
Toffler considered the 1st Wave to have been the Agricultural "Wave" marked by the change from the hunter/gatherers of the Paleolithic to the farmers and herding cultures that marked the Neolithic.
His second Wave was the coming of the industrial era. He used the proliferation of steam power following Watts as the birth of this "wave"
The Third Wave he saw as the Post-Industrial or Information Era, a "wave" that began with the computer that cracked the German Enigma codes and the televisions that soon became the technology that brought change into every's living room, yurt or village.
Quote
The U.S. IS following at this very moment, only that it will take time to hit the bottom. The process is ongoing and will reach the bottom in about 170 years from now, self-evidently with many ups and downs and a lot of hiding of the true state of the Union ;)
Toffler believed that 'Information Overload" would end all the empires that the Industrial Era had favored, that ready access to information would allow the have nots to glimpse not just the lifestyles of the "rich and famous", but will also allow them to recognize that the favored were in no way superior by way of morality, intellect, race, nationality or ability.
He saw revolution and the devolution of centralized power as our near future and a rebirth of City States where individualized needs can more easily be met as a longer term outcome. Standardization, the heart and soul of the Industrial Age would no longer suffice. One size fits all was never a good fit.
The US surviving for 170 years of BAU seems improbable to me, even if AGW were not taken into consideration.
Quote
Also we have to distinguish between the loss of sustainability or profitability or growth if someone prefers that term and the political downfall as a Country.

The later will take the longest due to accumulation of wealth as well due to a  huge advantage in military power for which it will take years until it's weakened to a point that will matter (make the country vulnerable to be toppled)
Quote
I've only been considering the political stability of the country. Some of the fabulously wealthy oligarch's hoards will sustain their heirs as long as money or it's equivalent holds some value.
Does the military follow orders when their families aren't being fed? Do the police defend property rights when their paychecks can't be cashed?
I agree about the uprisings happening once we lost the grid but who tells you that it will not be soon ;) ;) ;) :D :D :D

I expect that within the next 2-18 years, now it depends whether that is soon for you, for me this is soon, especially if i look at my grandchildren of age 7-19, they will be in the middle of everything during that time frame.

If you have reason for a later happening, I'm very interested to hear new input on the matter.
New input is a very high bar.
I can only extrapolate from the limited information I've had access to. History offers little from the viewpoint of the vanquished. Futurists like Toffler need to be read while bearing in mind the environment that they were experiencing when they were writing.


I think that regardless of present leadership the US will be forced to bow to the world's concerns over AGW. Whether militarily or economically America, and other entities that see global warming as a hoax will be forced to make good on their Paris pledges.
That will buy us some time.


Most of the more optimistic predictions stumble when they call for the magical/technological removal of GHG's from the atmosphere. That ain't happening - or at least it won't happen at the scale needed.


The grid won't be down in two years baring a very large nuclear war. The grid may fail in small isolated regions, but this isn't the unique catastrophe we're discussing.
18 years, again baring massive global conflict, is too early primarily because of the huge and redundant resources that can and will be expended in efforts to continue BAU. If the US were to lose the power from sea shore nuclear power plants due to sudden sea level rise rationing would allow us decades to build out enough gas, solar or windfarms to take their place.


The Soviet Empire died suddenly, but within a decade the Russian Federation had risen in it's stead.
If the US, the EU or even China were to fail politically or economically, the built up infrastructure would be patched together well enough to sustain some form of government, some form of economy, something close to BAU that would exist for decades or generations.


Alexandria slipped beneath the sea, but Egyptians moved to higher ground and are still extant.
Santorini exploded and peoples about the Mediterranean were decimated. A massive catastrophe that destroyed governments, altered weather and destroyed at least one culture. It's history survives in some of our most highly regarded mythologies.
What we're contemplating is something that dwarfs Santorini. What do we expect within 18 years that would equal that level of disruption?


It will come. It will be unimaginably damaging, but it won't occur suddenly nor without warning.


An island nation will sink. A crop failure will cause another Serbia, and another. Millions will die from heat exposure, more millions will be climate refugees. After all of these events have taken place. After international trade is curtailed. After localized wars for water, for food and for cooler lands the collapse will begin and the grid will fail.


We've yet to face the inundation of the first island nation. The grid will be extant for more than 18 years. :)


Please forgive both the pedantic nature and tome like size of this post. I'll attempt more succinct replies in the future. :-\
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 24, 2019, 02:54:33 PM

your input


I keep it short:

1. Thanks

2. New input was meant new to me, hence the task is obviously way lower ;)

3. I do not say that the U.S. will survive in their current state or even close to it for 170.
I think you overlooked or didn't consider the full meaning of "BOTTOM". If i say the bottom i mean the bottom and that is way lower a level that most countries are, they are mostly in between.

But those are only small semantic variations, i got your message, mostly agree and again thank you for taking the time to share your takes and thoughts with us.

BTW for me, TLTR does not exist while "Too Short To Convey The Full Message" does and is state of the art most of the times.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 24, 2019, 03:33:48 PM
Thanks, but I recognized I was getting way too verbose long before I posted.


The wife says that if you ask me the time I'm liable to tell you how to build a clock. :-[
Terry

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on July 24, 2019, 03:40:39 PM
Well if they listen and understand and build a clock they would never ask again.
It is possibly efficient.  8)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on July 24, 2019, 03:43:29 PM
Thanks, but I recognized I was getting way too verbose long before I posted.


The wife says that if you ask me the time I'm liable to tell you how to build a clock. :-[
Terry

But that's my defect, ok I'm willing to share a bit :D :D
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 29, 2019, 08:38:33 AM
The rich people prepping:
(From the Guardian)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 29, 2019, 08:28:10 PM
Cross posted from Heatwave thread.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: morganism on July 30, 2019, 12:31:01 AM
Currency (Restrictions on the Use of Cash) Bill 2019 (Australia)

"
14 days left to have your say
blackeconomy@treasury.gov
At a glance summary of how the cash payment limit will work 176.33 KB

In the 2018-19 Budget, the Government announced it would introduce an economy-wide cash payment limit of $10,000 for payments made or accepted by businesses for goods and services. Transactions equal to, or in excess of this amount would need to be made using the electronic payment system or by cheque. The Black Economy Taskforce recommended this action to tackle tax evasion and other criminal activities."

https://www.treasury.gov.au/consultation/c2019-t395788
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on July 30, 2019, 11:50:09 AM
Cross posted from Heatwave thread.

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/
Thanks, this was a very interesting and well written piece.

The most important point was that AGW is not some apocalyptic event that will unfold like the ones in our cultural imagination.  It won't come and go and suddenly change our world into a new state.  AGW does not have a beginning and end like asteroid impact or thermonuclear exchange, or zombiecalypse, extraterrestrial invasion or whatever popular catastrophe you prefer.

Instead it is an ongoing process that is already progressing, a switch to a new geological era that will transform the planet into a world that is alien and potentially hostile to us. How do you prepare for such a thing? Installing solar panels? Storing bullets and canned food underground? Yes there will be events, in fact there will be a series of ongoing and increasingly worsening events that will push our civilization towards economic hardship, unrest, chaos, bloodshed and war. The article tells us to learn from native Americans during post Columbine era, surviving in their reservations, adapting to a new way of life and trying to preserve what they can. So what exactly should we do?

I have to admit I am somewhat fascinated to watch all this happen live, although I mourn for the disappearing beauty of the natural world. But the sadness truly hits me when my 7 year old daughter tells me about her interests and future plans. And I know her life will be so different than mine.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 30, 2019, 06:47:11 PM
<snippage>

I'm sorry I couldn't resist to respond. I like your posts SH and bluice but,
Quote
AGW is not some apocalyptic event
Okay, so suppose at some point in time at your place there's no electicity for a long time and the shops don't work because large infrastructures don't operate anymore as a direct or indirect result of AGW. What will you do in wintertime when it's freezing? How will you get your ordinary 'neccessary' stuff? What if you don't have safe drinking water? Or water at all. Earth is more than the 'western world'.
How is that not apocalyptic?

Quote
AGW does not have a beginning and end
Yes it does, and the beginning of civilisation collapse is THE END, I think.

Sorry, couldn't resist:
Quote
economic hardship
Ouch. Who will suffer?

Quote
although I mourn for the disappearing beauty of the natural world.
I do too. Very much so, but I have accepted.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on July 30, 2019, 10:50:09 PM
Nanning, I have a feeling you somewhat misunderstood me.

My point, and that of the article, is that agw is not an isolated event we know from our popular culture, a some kind of cleansing and baptizing turning point that we need to endure.

Climate change certainly is apocalyptic though. It will keep on going to make peoples lives ever more difficult and at some point maybe impossible.

As you wrote, how can you prepare for something like this?

I strongly suggest you to read the article unless you haven’t already done so. I think you’d appreciate it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 31, 2019, 05:49:08 AM
Thank you bluice. My brain was a bit out of focus and mistier than normal at the end of the of day. I had a great day  :). Maybe I should have resisted stronger.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 31, 2019, 06:23:39 PM
<snippage>
Hi bluice,
Now I've read the article, I have to agree with you; a very interesting and well written piece I enjoyed reading because it mentions many significant effects. Thanks SH for the cross-post.

Where I differ in view, is how fast it will go. The article refers to years after 2050 when living might get really hard. I don't think it'll come to that. Our interconnected technological infrastructures and global interdependence on parts and resources make the system very vulnerable (e.g. what products in your supermarket or in another shop are made completely locally?).

Then there's lower and lower human morality. There are many groups on the Internet with bigot ideas and violent intent. In another thread someone (DrTskoul?) mentioned bigot people really hating Gretha Thunberg and that throwing her out of a helicopter would be a mild fate compared to other suggestions that were made. Think about it. In desperate situations these people will be violent and torturous. There'll be nothing restraining them apart from other violent groups.
I don't think there'll be a normal stable and safe family 'good life' after the collapse of large infrastructure or with war, hunger, thirst, loss of comforts, really extreme weather.
We'll see how it plays out the coming years. My wish is it'll happen sooner rather than later because of the PLEASE LET THE DESTRUCTION STOP - yell of all other life on Earth. Pity that most human ears are deaf for this yell.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 06:47:50 PM
It was not me, but it does not matter. Message is the same. Look, we are talking about collapse, apocalypse etc. it is understood that the consequences are going to be severe but for better or worse it won’t be the end of the human civilization. Humans will find a way. During World War II vast cities have been rendered fields of ramble. Those were rebuilt and nobody remembers that any more. Hundred of thousands have died in an instant in various catastrophes. Nobody remembers or sees the results of now. Famines that killed millions have been overcome.

 However the coming changes will affect the biosphere much more severely as in general other living species take much more time to rebound. Nature eventually rebounds but at a much slower rate. What we are going to lose is the saddest part. There are many parts of the world that we shouldn’t have inhabited any way.

Will there be suffering? Yeah. Should we do everything we can as a society? Absolutely. Should we approach the problem with terror and knee-jerk reactions? No. Will people in general accept a much reduced quality of life as a way to solve the problem? Good luck with that - reduces quality of life will be forced to us by the consequences. It’s a very large and slow moving train. It cannot just be stopped.

I am rambling and probably be nonsensical but this is my gut feeling of how things might unfold.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on July 31, 2019, 07:16:39 PM
I respect your view DrTskoul.
Please respect my view. I could be wrong with my view of course.
I had a minor struggle with this:
<snippage>
Should we approach the problem with terror and knee-jerk reactions?
Assuming you mean my post, I don't think it qualifies as such. That post was my unemotional explanation. There's information in it. You may not like it of course, but it is no knee-jerk. I have given this much much thought and observations.

edit: compared to earlier times our civilisation is now so much more global and technological. I think earlier times are no analogy. Almost forgot the climate crisis and mass extinction event.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 07:33:25 PM
I respect your view DrTskoul.
Please respect my view. I could be wrong with my view of course.
I had a minor struggle with this:
<snippage>
Should we approach the problem with terror and knee-jerk reactions?
Assuming you mean my post, I don't think it qualifies as such. That post was my unemotional explanation. There's information in it. You may not like it of course, but it is no knee-jerk. I have given this much much thought and observations.

edit: compared to earlier times our civilisation is now so much more global and technological. I think earlier times are no analogy. Almost forgot the climate crisis and mass extinction event.

I was not referring to your approach. Sorry if I was not clear. I mean society and governments in general. I was not answering or commenting on any ASIF member's view.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 31, 2019, 09:01:04 PM
I have been picking and canning apricots. 7 gallons in pint and quart jars. I still have another twenty pounds to go. Strange thing this because usually it is a race with the birds and picking season would have ended by now.Aug. 1 strange but there are no crows. My resident pair are not around and the murder of crows that normally flies from their roost twice daily past my window are not around either.
The swallows nested and abandoned their nests as they did last year. I don't really have any idea if there is even a problem with the local crow population but something changed or I wouldn't be picking apricots in August.
 I spent almost forty years as a commercial sea urchin diver and the whole nearshore kelp ecosystem has changed in Northern California from what it was thirty years ago. We are about five years into a very large ecosystem shift and after getting to know the kelp ecosystem you expect it to change back.
But cycles not the same thing as clinal shifts or collapses. We expect the world to cycle and for me the hard part is conceptualizing a linear trend , that ecosystems change to something you don't recognize and never change back.
 I am a fisherman, a farmer and much of my success or failure depends on my ability to predict where to go fish, or when I should stay home, when to plant.  The only way to do that is to build up a lot of experiance but how do you deal with an enviornment that changes to one you don't know ? Then changes again .
Pack seeds away like a squirrel in a heavy mast ,I guess.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on July 31, 2019, 09:09:01 PM
That was the Holocene climate - varying, but mostly within limits that did not completely prevent planting and harvesting at least something.

But now we have the anthropocene climate - varying between unknown but greatly expanded limits. Bruce and his fellow farmers & fishermen know the consequences for the rest of us.

Even farmers in Queensland - the Aussie denier heartland, are getting the message big-time.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on July 31, 2019, 09:21:49 PM
The biggest problem is the uncertainty and the unknown patterns...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on July 31, 2019, 09:43:24 PM
Bruce
I haven't noticed a lack of crows here yet. Robins and songbirds are scarce and the starlings that were once a plague are gone. I've seen one cardinal in the last two years.
Whatever the birds were that used to rouse me in the early hours have been missing for the last few years.


I'll keep my eyes (and ears) out for crows and report back.
Terry
PS
Ten or so years ago when up near Hudson's Bay a Cree asked what kind of bird we were looking at. It was a robin that was apparently far from his usual habitat.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on July 31, 2019, 09:58:26 PM
Even farmers in Queensland - the Aussie denier heartland, are getting the message big-time.

Same in the American heartland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PiLeu3qc7fI

Somehow country folk are *still* clinging to right-wing propaganda, despite their own direct experiences and the looming loss of their very way of life.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on July 31, 2019, 10:05:17 PM
The only way to deal with uncertainty is precaution. So maybe if you thought you needed enough food stored away to get you through a failed crop season and enough seed to get you through a second planting season you'd be OK. but two failed planting seasons would mean preparations would require three years of seed set aside and two years of food.
 And no I'm not trying to rationalize why I am canning ten + gallons of apricots.

Terry, I don't think there is anything wrong with the local crows. They probably found free food where they don't fly right past my window. The apricot crop just got me to wondering . But then Newcastles sometimes makes it's rounds. I'd know about Newcastles if it was killing the crows how ever because there would be signs at the feed store.
 But then after a short search

https://www.dailynews.com/2019/02/27/chicken-killing-newcastle-disease-prompts-widespread-quarantines-in-southern-california/
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: vox_mundi on July 31, 2019, 10:11:41 PM
Bruce, your resilient approach brought this study to mind...

It Pays To Explore In Times of Uncertainty
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-07-explore-uncertainty.html

When making choices, people tend either to go with what they know or try something new. We experience this trade-off every day, whether choosing a route to work or buying breakfast cereal. But does one strategy have an advantage over another? Researchers decided to examine this question by looking at fishing boat captains, who face this choice again and again when deciding where to fish.

To find out which strategy leads to greater success in the real world, scientists from the University of California, Davis, and their coauthors examined 540,000 fishing vessel position records from nearly 2,500 commercial fishing trips in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, along with their revenues. The results are published today in the journal Nature Communications.

"It looks like exploration pays off in the face of uncertainty," said co-leading author Shay O'Farrell, a postdoctoral researcher in the lab of Professor James Sanchirico from the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. "This is particularly important in the context of global environmental change, when disturbances such as storms and droughts are predicted to increase."

The study found that some vessels consistently explore new territory more than others and invest more time and resources into sampling new places to fish. In times of stability, exploratory vessels performed no better or worse on average than vessels that stuck with consistency.

"In relatively stable environments, we would expect that any gains from switching behaviors would usually go away, otherwise vessels would be changing how they fish," Sanchirico said.

But when boats were suddenly forced to fish elsewhere during a 2009 closure of popular fishing grounds in the Gulf, those with a history of exploration experienced significantly less impact from the disruption. That may be because the boat captains could draw from their history of exploration to select new grounds.

O'Farrell suggests the findings may hold lessons for times of uncertainty.

"One way in which we can future-proof our livelihoods is by exploring new options," O'Farrell said. "That way, if our current options become unavailable or less attractive in the future, we can fall back on our knowledge of alternatives. Sharing our knowledge could make us even more resilient still, as we can draw from a larger pool of experience."

Open Access: Shay O'Farrell et al, Disturbance modifies payoffs in the explore-exploit trade-off (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11106-y), Nature Communications (2019)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bugalugs on August 01, 2019, 12:49:21 AM
No apocalypse hits everyone at the same time, unless the world explodes.

The apocalypse is a personal experience.

When you lose your job or home to climate change, and can't find another, the apocalypse has arrived.

Prepping therefore means either making things so you don't need a job to live, or making yourself fully employable in a declining economy.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on August 02, 2019, 10:58:00 PM
<snippage>
Our interconnected technological infrastructures and global interdependence on parts and resources make the system very vulnerable (e.g. what products in your supermarket or in another shop are made completely locally?).

I totally agree Nanning.  The growth dependent global finance system and wickedly complex just-in-time global supply chains are poised on a knife edge and could become drastically unstable very quickly.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: morganism on August 02, 2019, 11:38:54 PM
CDMA Network Retirement (now extended to end o 2020)

"As we complete our network transition to 4G and 5G, we at Verizon would like to keep you up to date with some important activities.

We are moving all devices to our HD Voice LTE network, which offers superior coverage and performance compared to previous generation networks.  Starting January 1, 2020, Verizon will no longer allow any CDMA (3G and 4G Non-HD Voice) 'Like-for-Like' device changes.

Additional changes include but are not limited to:

    Starting 1/1/2020:
        No Longer Allowed:
            Transfer of Service, moving from one account to another account
            Bring Your Own Device (BYOD), providing a CDMA device to activate on an existing line
            Swapping one CDMA device for another CDMA device
            Roaming outside of the US

https://www.verizonwireless.com/support/knowledge-base-218813/

This hurts all of us in the western US, where CDMA/Verizin is the only thing that works in mountainous areas.

If you just need to contact your neighbors and you are pretty close, you can use a Go-tenna setup for making a text network over low power radio.

If you have good internet, you can set up a VoIP setup.

https://www.lifewire.com/free-sip-softphone-apps-3426673

5G has VERY limited range, and line of sight basically. In town, they are planning on making ALL routers open as wi-fi repeaters to make up for it, in the mountains, you will basically be losing fone service.

If you are going to add an CDMA/verizon fone before the deadline, make SURE it handles "digital voice" "LTE+" or HDvoice". All others won't work once they go to the new LTE platform.

I would be tempted to buy an el-cheapo , chinese, dual-sim card fone now (huewei?), activate it, and order another sim to use with the VoIP apps listed above.

I did get a Samsung J Luna Sky Pro, (in CDMA and LTE) which said it had HDvoice, but when received, it had no settings for that , just a "stereo voice" feature, which some say still counts. (tracfone)

If comms is important to you, you may want to get a teen to help you figure out what to do soon, before you can't add a new CDMA fone in your area.

for real tech and answers, you need to work the Howard Forums, where the techs hang out.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 03, 2019, 10:20:13 AM
After watching Titanic for the umpteenth time I realized it is probably not a bad indicator on what to expect in a contained collapse scenario where 1) there will be mass death 2) there will be survivors 3) resource distribution is unequal 4) maximization of absolute NUMBERS for survival is not the key goal and there will be "capacity" to spare for which some will die.

https://titanicfacts.net/titanic-survivors/

31.6% – the percentage of people aboard (passengers and crew) who survived the sinking.

53.4% – the total percentage who could have survived, given the number of spaces available on the lifeboats.

492 – the number of Titanic passengers who survived.

37% – the percentage of passengers who survived.

61% – the percentage of First Class passengers who survived.

42% – the percentage of Standard Class passengers who survived.

24% – the percentage of Third Class passengers who survived.

2 – the number of dogs believed to have survived (both were lapdogs taken onto lifeboats by their owners).

20% – the percentage of male passengers who survived.

75% – the percentage of female passengers who survived.

214 – the number of Titanic crew members who survived.

24% – the percentage of crew members who survived.

22% – the percentage of male crew members who survived.

87% – the percentage of female crew members who survived.

50% – the percentage of Navigation Officers who survived (4 out of 8).

0% – the percentage of Engineering Officers who survived (all 25 perished, bravely working to keep the ship afloat for as long as possible).

100% – the percentage of lookouts who survived.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on August 03, 2019, 10:45:31 AM
I found @ 500 crows/rooks/jackdaws poisoned and dumped at the edge of a local lake 2 years ago .. some folk don't sow a share for nature .. b.c.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on August 03, 2019, 02:23:15 PM
I found @ 500 crows/rooks/jackdaws poisoned and dumped at the edge of a local lake 2 years ago .. some folk don't sow a share for nature .. b.c.

That is sickening ...
.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 03, 2019, 03:20:24 PM
“This moment in history marks the end of a long, sad tale of greed and murder by the white races. It is inevitable that for the final show we vomited up a figure like Trump. Europeans and Americans have spent five centuries conquering, plundering, exploiting, and polluting the Earth in the name of human progress. They used their technological superiority to create the most efficient killing machines on the planet, directed against anyone and anything, especially indigenous cultures which stood in their way. They stole and hoarded the planet’s wealth and resources. They believed that this orgy of blood and gold would never end, and they still believe it. They do not understand that the dark ethic of ceaseless capitalist and imperialist expansion is dooming the exploiters as well as the exploited. But even as we stand on the cusp of extinction, we lack the intelligence and imagination to break free from our evolutionary past. As the warning signs become more palpable – rising temperatures, global financial meltdowns, mass human migrations, endless wars, poisoned ecosystems, rampant corruption among the ruling class – we turn to those who chant, either through idiocy or cynicism, the mantra that what worked in the past will work in the future. Factual evidence, since it is an impediment to what we desire, is banished.”

Chris Hedges (America: The Farewell Tour)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 03, 2019, 05:12:18 PM
Great text SH, thanks.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on August 03, 2019, 05:37:27 PM
<iframe src="https://player.vimeo.com/video/240397901" width="640" height="512" frameborder="0" allow="autoplay; fullscreen" allowfullscreen></iframe>
<p><a href="https://vimeo.com/240397901">Marko Pogačnik Gaia Quantum Leap</a> from <a href="https://vimeo.com/bojanbrecelj">Bojan Brecelj</a> on <a href="https://vimeo.com">Vimeo</a>.</p>




Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on August 03, 2019, 06:03:32 PM
But even as we stand on the cusp of extinction,

Chris Hedges (America: The Farewell Tour)

Probably i should keep it for myself but that is such a great resume that if the word "extinction" would be replaced with the term "mass mortality" it were a perfect "one-hundred-percenter".
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 03, 2019, 06:06:45 PM
“It is inevitable that for the final show we vomited up a figure like Trump.”
Chris Hedges (America: The Farewell Tour)

Well put.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 03, 2019, 07:25:54 PM
“This moment in history marks the end of a long, sad tale of greed and murder by the white races. It is inevitable that for the final show we vomited up a figure like Trump. Europeans and Americans have spent five centuries conquering, plundering, exploiting, and polluting the Earth in the name of human progress. They used their technological superiority to create the most efficient killing machines on the planet, directed against anyone and anything, especially indigenous cultures which stood in their way. They stole and hoarded the planet’s wealth and resources. They believed that this orgy of blood and gold would never end, and they still believe it. They do not understand that the dark ethic of ceaseless capitalist and imperialist expansion is dooming the exploiters as well as the exploited. But even as we stand on the cusp of extinction, we lack the intelligence and imagination to break free from our evolutionary past. As the warning signs become more palpable – rising temperatures, global financial meltdowns, mass human migrations, endless wars, poisoned ecosystems, rampant corruption among the ruling class – we turn to those who chant, either through idiocy or cynicism, the mantra that what worked in the past will work in the future. Factual evidence, since it is an impediment to what we desire, is banished.”

Chris Hedges (America: The Farewell Tour)


Thanks so much SH!


I fear that the underlined phrase may well be our eulogy, writ large in the jumbled strata that marks our passing.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on August 03, 2019, 08:09:55 PM

we turn to those who chant, either through idiocy or cynicism, the mantra that what worked in the past will work in the future. Factual evidence, since it is an impediment to what we desire, is banished

I fear that the underlined phrase may well be our eulogy, writ large in the jumbled strata that marks our passing.
Terry
Terry.
Buck up. You know very well that all is for the best in the best of all possible worlds.

I am told the Buddhists say that what is to come is necessary. That our individual fates are part of the necessary wheel of life for us as individuals.
My daughter also tells me that the Dalai Lama has said that he is the last. When he is gone - that's it. (No matter if the Chinese put a puppet in his seat).

See, I told you, everything is for the best (he said, reaching for the alcohol).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 03, 2019, 08:27:49 PM
après moi le déluge - said the narcissist to his gullible unlettered disciples.

I'd no idea that Mr. Lama was so full of - - (himself?)

Pass the bottle, and don't bogart that joint my friend.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on August 03, 2019, 08:28:56 PM
Right on....
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rich on August 03, 2019, 09:27:32 PM
It is inevitable that for the final show we vomited up a figure like Trump.

I guess it was also inevitable that the Democrats vomited up Hillary Clinton, one of the only people who could have lost to Trump?

Nature abhors a vacuum. If American's couldn't vote against the interests of Goldman Sachs, they rolled the dice on someone who they hoped would destroy the whole system.

Now, the Goldman types are propping up Biden while nature is pushing Sanders to fill the vacuum.

I'm off to check out Sen. Sanders live this afternoon and then partake in the excellent, cheap and legal weed Vegas has to offer.

Catch ya' later quitters.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 04, 2019, 02:03:27 AM
What is wrong with you people. It's like the flagellants during the Bubonic Plague. White people are just like other people. Where would we be without electricity, modern medicine, etc. It is easy to say "omg white people evil" while ignoring all the positives. Just as it's easy to say white people are to blame for slavery when it was actually the Africans who were first engaging in the practice (not that it is acceptable in either case, but really, why is one evil worse than the other).

If you want to flagellate I guess that's fine but I don't think it is a reasonable response and I'm not going to join you or condone it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 04, 2019, 02:08:19 AM
What is wrong with you people. It's like the flagellants during the Bubonic Plague. White people are just like other people. Where would we be without electricity, modern medicine, etc. It is easy to say "omg white people evil" while ignoring all the positives. Just as it's easy to say white people are to blame for slavery when it was actually the Africans who were first engaging in the practice (not that it is acceptable in either case, but really, why is one evil worse than the other).

If you want to flagellate I guess that's fine but I don't think it is a reasonable response and I'm not going to join you or condone it.


Should we assume you're white then?
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 02:24:40 AM
One of the few silver linings of Trump is that a lot of thinly buried ... is being unearthed. It's amazing the contortions people achieve to do deny reality. Very close analog to climate change denialism, and not at all disconnected.

Of course white people are to blame and of course bigotry and inequality persist. We won't be able to fix bigotry until the obvious truth of it is accepted, just as we won't be able to fix climate change until the obvious truth of it is accepted.

And the argument that Trump is some kind of antidote to big money is patently absurd. He is by far the most corrupt president in recent history, and it was obvious from the that start he would be.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 03:04:38 AM
In other news (not news, hasn't changed since the '80s and well before), this is a neat clip pre-dating the internet by decades in which Al Gore plainly states the reality of climate change and its consequences, at a time when strong action probably would have been early enough to avert ecosystem collapse. The ruling class has clearly known for ~50 years what's coming. Don't hold your breath for imminent action.

https://youtu.be/f9pH5d7vKBs

Jump to minute 1:00 to see Gore's short CSPAN clip.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on August 04, 2019, 03:25:26 AM
Quote
The ruling class has clearly known for ~50 years what's coming.

I don't think they do. If they did they wouldn't let it happen. Climate change  will take most from the ones who have the most. Its the end of the world as we know it. Those with power will lose it, those with money will lose it.

I do agree that they think some bad stuff is going to happen to poor countries while they eat popcorn. They probably think a culling is a good idea, the fools. Their confirmation bias blinds them to what is coming.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 03:50:37 AM
I don't think they are capable of taking action. They rule but they are not individually in control. They themselves are subject to the constraints of their part of the system.

For instance, Al Gore tried to sound the alarm, and what did it get him besides a stolen election? The rich are rich because they are ruthless. They are not capable (either by nature or by constraints) of considering the overall good, even if they are aware of it, even though they are part of it.

If there is a profit to be made, it will be made. If not by you then by me, and you lose.

They will try to make only sufficient feigns to barely avert violent uprising, for as long as possible. After, they will bunker down and continue to live the good life. Given their immense resources (thousands of times greater than those most people would consider rich), and providing they aren't too stupid to have properly prepared, they certainly can continue to live a very good life (materially), even after society collapses, probably even after a mass ecosystems collapse, at least for their lifetimes and their children's.

Or maybe I've been reading too much Atwood.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 04, 2019, 04:27:28 AM
Sorry about that comment but it is pretty much how I feel.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 04, 2019, 04:35:13 AM
Jump to minute 1:00 to see Gore's short CSPAN clip.

Also 22:28: Ice shelf melting does not show up in gravity satellite measurements of mass (i.e. GRACE). Makes sense, but I hadn't considered it before.

SH, no need to apologize. I think a lot of us feel that way, myself included.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on August 04, 2019, 05:08:32 AM
Quote
The ruling class has clearly known for ~50 years what's coming.

I don't think they do. If they did they wouldn't let it happen. Climate change  will take most from the ones who have the most. Its the end of the world as we know it. Those with power will lose it, those with money will lose it.

I do agree that they think some bad stuff is going to happen to poor countries while they eat popcorn. They probably think a culling is a good idea, the fools. Their confirmation bias blinds them to what is coming.


 I think we ascribe too much intelligence to the ruling class. Similar to other self organizing systems, it takes a few simple rules and not a grand intelligence...

The information has been around for 50+ years. Denial is strong and it takes big events to break through the collective mental barrier....
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: swoozle on August 04, 2019, 05:12:02 AM
I don't agree with this either. You're attributing selfless motives to a class of people that (imho) think primarily of themselves. I don't think that, on the whole, the .1% that are in positions of decision-making power will prioritize their descendants' wealth over their power/wealth today. Every single one of those powerful sociopaths expect to be dead before the SHTF.

Quote
The ruling class has clearly known for ~50 years what's coming.

I don't think they do. If they did they wouldn't let it happen. Climate change  will take most from the ones who have the most. Its the end of the world as we know it. Those with power will lose it, those with money will lose it.
...snip
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 04, 2019, 06:03:48 AM
<snippage>
 I think we ascribe too much intelligence to the ruling class. Similar to other self organizing systems, it takes a few simple rules and not a grand intelligence...
Completely agree. They employ very intelligent people and PR companies that make them look smart.

If the very intelligent people would all strike because they understand their role, technological civilisation would fall apart. They are the most important 'resource' !
No new tech and complex solutions anymore without this minority; the toolmakers and problem solvers.
(now I'm thinking of the B-ark of Douglas Adams' hitchhiker books)

Who's striking with me? Beer on the house. Joints shared around.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 04, 2019, 04:33:59 PM
I don't agree with this either. You're attributing selfless motives to a class of people that (imho) think primarily of themselves. I don't think that, on the whole, the .1% that are in positions of decision-making power will prioritize their descendants' wealth over their power/wealth today. Every single one of those powerful sociopaths expect to be dead before the SHTF.

Quote
The ruling class has clearly known for ~50 years what's coming.

I don't think they do. If they did they wouldn't let it happen. Climate change  will take most from the ones who have the most. Its the end of the world as we know it. Those with power will lose it, those with money will lose it.
...snip

There are very few of the wealthiest and most powerful who do not believe in AGW. The science is sound and readily available and they are as well informed as those of us here. I think that many even understand that BAU will be a disaster. Benefiting the most from the system that is driving it, they are calculating that their wealth and power will protect themselves and their children and grandchildren from the effects. This is a dreadful miscalculation.

BAU will deliver us a world that is incompatible with human civilization no later than 2070. When a system begins to collapse, the persons who suffer the most are the same ones that benefit the most from the system functioning well.. Their wealth, particularly their financial wealth, will simply go poof, disappearing into thin air. They will be left with few practical skills to cope with the new world. The small family farmer who raises most of the food he and his family needs and supplies the same to the local community in which he lives will find himself a wealthy man.

At its worst, the wealthy and powerful in wealthy countries will suffer the same fate as  King Louis XVI.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Ktb on August 06, 2019, 12:28:12 AM
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 06, 2019, 01:08:37 AM
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.


Why stockpile? Those needing refrigerated medicines aren't going to be with us for long anyway.  :-\
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 06, 2019, 03:43:18 PM
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.

Ten percent may be diabetics (mostly older, sedentary, overweight Type 2), but I can't believe 10% of the population are treated with insulin. 

If civilization collapses, obligate fasting will control blood sugars nicely for most.  For most of the others, increased exertion will help control blood sugar levels.  Civilization collapse would likely be curative of the diabetic state for most, within a month or so.  A silver lining.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 03:53:05 PM
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.

Ten percent may be diabetics (mostly older, sedentary, overweight Type 2), but I can't believe 10% of the population are treated with insulin. 

If civilization collapses, obligate fasting will control blood sugars nicely for most.  For most of the others, increased exertion will help control blood sugar levels.  Civilization collapse would likely be curative of the diabetic state for most, within a month or so.  A silver lining.

Death is not a cure, and you are delusional.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 06, 2019, 05:02:39 PM
<snip>
Death is not a cure, and you are delusional.
Why are you so judgmental? Without arguments.

The cure is to stop participating in the accelerating destruction.

Do you think everyone will die shortly after the collapse?

edit: everyone = those who depend on refrigerated medicines
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 06, 2019, 06:13:07 PM
Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.

Ten percent may be diabetics (mostly older, sedentary, overweight Type 2), but I can't believe 10% of the population are treated with insulin. 

If civilization collapses, obligate fasting will control blood sugars nicely for most.  For most of the others, increased exertion will help control blood sugar levels.  Civilization collapse would likely be curative of the diabetic state for most, within a month or so.  A silver lining.

Death is not a cure, and you are delusional.

You're jumping to conclusions about my words.  Reduced caloric intake  + exercise will often resolve Type II diabetes, no demise required.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 08:36:45 PM
<snip>
Death is not a cure, and you are delusional.
Why are you so judgmental? Without arguments.

The cure is to stop participating in the accelerating destruction.

Do you think everyone will die shortly after the collapse?

edit: everyone = those who depend on refrigerated medicines

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Has anybody considered that even if everybody survived collapse, within 3 months about ~10% of the US adult population would be dead from lack of insulin. Stockpile now!

Not to mention all the other health conditions that would suddenly go untreated.

Ten percent may be diabetics (mostly older, sedentary, overweight Type 2), but I can't believe 10% of the population are treated with insulin. 

If civilization collapses, obligate fasting will control blood sugars nicely for most.  For most of the others, increased exertion will help control blood sugar levels.  Civilization collapse would likely be curative of the diabetic state for most, within a month or so.  A silver lining.

Death is not a cure, and you are delusional.

You're jumping to conclusions about my words.  Reduced caloric intake  + exercise will often resolve Type II diabetes, no demise required.
Tell that to the Type II diabetics and they will start jumping on treadmills today, why wait for societal collapse! Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Hey everyone, SteveXYZ has cured the diabetes, praise jeebus! Now give them their cure pills.  ;D
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 06, 2019, 08:46:31 PM

Tell that to the Type II diabetics and they will start jumping on treadmills today, why wait for societal collapse! Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Hey everyone, SteveXYZ has cured the diabetes, praise jeebus! Now give them their cure pills.  ;D

Sigh.  The reason Type II DM is widely considered a chronic, incurable disease is that it's bloody difficult for most such sufferers to change life-long habits to get sufficient exercise and substantial weight loss.   For some, even dramatic changes won't totally put the condition into remission, but almost all will have very substantial improvement.  Type II DM has multi-factorial pathology.

It's quite different for Type I DM, of course.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 08:49:34 PM

Tell that to the Type II diabetics and they will start jumping on treadmills today, why wait for societal collapse! Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Hey everyone, SteveXYZ has cured the diabetes, praise jeebus! Now give them their cure pills.  ;D

Sigh. The reason Type II DM is widely considered a chronic, incurable disease is that it's bloody difficult for most such sufferers to change life-long habits to get sufficient exercise and substantial weight loss.   For some, even dramatic changes won't totally put the condition into remission, but almost all will have very substantial improvement. Type II DM has multi-factorial pathology.

It's quite different for Type I DM, of course.

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on August 06, 2019, 08:52:15 PM

Tell that to the Type II diabetics and they will start jumping on treadmills today, why wait for societal collapse! Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Hey everyone, SteveXYZ has cured the diabetes, praise jeebus! Now give them their cure pills.  ;D

I was just opening one of your posts to see whether at least in such an obvious case you could jump over your shadow and simply say sorry for misinterpretation?

Of course not. All your input is 90% poisonous, not one tiny bit of collaboration or consensus seeking.

How do you think there would be the tiniest chance to avoid said collapse if everyone behaved like you do? But you're in good company, only that most of the majority would NOT inject their venom in such a forum, which, BTW is ultimately worse.

I think it has to be told from time to time.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on August 06, 2019, 09:01:04 PM
most type 2 diabetics seem to prefer to lose a limb or two rather than change their diet . My aunt lost a foot then a leg  rather than eat vegetables . Those who do change diet and behaviour usually can cease their meds and return to a healthy life . Maybe societal collapse will be the end of type 2 diabetes .. an ill wind etc .. :) .. b.c.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 09:06:39 PM

Tell that to the Type II diabetics and they will start jumping on treadmills today, why wait for societal collapse! Do you realize how ridiculous you sound? Hey everyone, SteveXYZ has cured the diabetes, praise jeebus! Now give them their cure pills.  ;D

I was just opening one of your posts to see whether at least in such an obvious case you could jump over your shadow and simply say sorry for misinterpretation?

Of course not. All your input is 90% poisonous, not one tiny bit of collaboration or consensus seeking.

How do you think there would be the tiniest chance to avoid said collapse if everyone behaved like you do? But you're in good company, only that most of the majority would NOT inject their venom in such a forum, which, BTW is ultimately worse.

I think it has to be told from time to time.
?

My input is not 90% poisonous, I have a realistic viewpoint for human behavior, if you want to exist in a fairyland that is your prerogative, unfortunately I am stuck on The Planet of the Apes and imminent doom is likely near, and there is nothing you or I or anyone can do about it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 06, 2019, 09:07:08 PM
most type 2 diabetics seem to prefer to lose a limb or two rather than change their diet . My aunt lost a foot then a leg  rather than eat vegetables . Those who do change diet and behaviour usually can cease their meds and return to a healthy life . Maybe societal collapse will be the end of type 2 diabetes .. an ill wind etc .. :) .. b.c.
But what's his name said your aunt just needs exercise and then she'll be fine! LOL
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: be cause on August 06, 2019, 09:47:43 PM
My aunt ? .. she's decomposing atm .. ( LOL ? ) ..  it's healthy eating AND exercise that prevent or cure Type 2 ..
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on August 06, 2019, 10:09:06 PM
My aunt ? .. she's decomposing atm .. ( LOL ? ) ..  it's healthy eating AND exercise that prevent or cure Type 2 ..

Just to tell:

I have/had Type 2 at age 42, changed my nutrition and do exercises and cardio every day. 

Nowadays I often jump out of bed in the morning and run down the stairs while decades earlier i needed hand rails due to rigid muscles and aching joints + restless leg syndrom then now gone.

Only thing that never recovered from that time is eye-sight but it remained within range and then esophagus remained sensitive to alcohol, wheat and sweets.

Same glasses for 15 years, before that I tried without glasses but ultimately had to succumb ;) ;)

So it's exactly true that nutrition cures the symptoms while the damage is done and there is no way back to conditions before it started.

Last but not least i can't tell how much and what I ate before, I'm embarrassed.

Not bad quality but up to 7000kcal per day, mostly sweets, beer, booze, pizzas and steaks and spaghetti. Fortunately jointly with about 24 hours sports per week so at least I wasn't getting too fat.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 07, 2019, 05:29:40 AM

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!

Quite the opposite.  Civilization collapse would likely cause the vast majority to switch to a low calorie diet and greatly increase their activity level. No choice there. Meanwhile, insulin can be kept at room temperature for at least a month, with FDA-approved levels of potency remaining.   Beyond which, most Type II's need only oral medication, with stability of agents for many months.

You're right, though, about the less common Type I folks.  Without insulin, they're gonners, regardless of diet and exercise.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2019, 05:44:14 AM

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!

Quite the opposite.  Civilization collapse would likely cause the vast majority to switch to a low calorie diet and greatly increase their activity level. No choice there. Meanwhile, insulin can be kept at room temperature for at least a month, with FDA-approved levels of potency remaining.   Beyond which, most Type II's need only oral medication, with stability of agents for many months.

You're right, though, about the less common Type I folks.  Without insulin, they're gonners, regardless of diet and exercise.

I think you are extremely naively optimistic.

The initial carnage of the first week or two post-collapse would probably result in the deaths of a very substantial portion of the population. No law, no order, no food for some -- in dense areas you would probably be seeing cannibalism by the third week.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 07, 2019, 05:52:46 AM

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!

Quite the opposite.  Civilization collapse would likely cause the vast majority to switch to a low calorie diet and greatly increase their activity level. No choice there. Meanwhile, insulin can be kept at room temperature for at least a month, with FDA-approved levels of potency remaining.   Beyond which, most Type II's need only oral medication, with stability of agents for many months.

You're right, though, about the less common Type I folks.  Without insulin, they're gonners, regardless of diet and exercise.

I think you are extremely naively optimistic.

The initial carnage of the first week or two post-collapse would probably result in the deaths of a very substantial portion of the population. No law, no order, no food for some -- in dense areas you would probably be seeing cannibalism by the third week.

It's hard to guess what collapse will look like.  But I think the example of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico may be a good case study.  Weeks of no grid electricity.  A functioning military and national guard for quite some time.  They're geared for operating for long periods without a grid or gas stations.  It was actually the rural areas that had little or no support.  Urban areas had better lifelines. 

In all, I expect a stuttering collapse--two steps backwards for each periodic step forward.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 07, 2019, 05:58:04 AM

OK, so we are back to  --

99% of those people will die within a month of collapse.

Thanks!

Quite the opposite.  Civilization collapse would likely cause the vast majority to switch to a low calorie diet and greatly increase their activity level. No choice there. Meanwhile, insulin can be kept at room temperature for at least a month, with FDA-approved levels of potency remaining.   Beyond which, most Type II's need only oral medication, with stability of agents for many months.

You're right, though, about the less common Type I folks.  Without insulin, they're gonners, regardless of diet and exercise.

I think you are extremely naively optimistic.

The initial carnage of the first week or two post-collapse would probably result in the deaths of a very substantial portion of the population. No law, no order, no food for some -- in dense areas you would probably be seeing cannibalism by the third week.

It's hard to guess what collapse will look like.  But I think the example of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico may be a good case study.  Weeks of no grid electricity.  A functioning military and national guard for quite some time.  They're geared for operating for long periods without a grid or gas stations.  It was actually the rural areas that had little or no support.  Urban areas had better lifelines. 

In all, I expect a stuttering collapse--two steps backwards for each periodic step forward.

IDK, when Sandy happened in NYC, Lower Manhattan was essentially a war zone by day 3 or 4. Not with crime, but it was completely abandoned. There were massive fuel and logistics issues as well, with the subways largely down. That was only three to four days.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 07, 2019, 06:46:52 AM
Collapse won't be all at once, like in a movie. It will accelerate gradually over a period long enough that people won't really notice, at least not for a while and not until it's too late to do much about. Just like climate change. And also just like climate change, although you need to pay attention and know where to look to see the symptoms, the collapse of civilization has already begun. A few decades from now, both will be obvious. A few generations from now, both will be unrecognizable.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on August 07, 2019, 09:25:38 AM
When ecosystem collapse happens it will become everyday life, and I think it's fair to ask whether we are in this phase already. Even major ones such as coral reefs are on the brink of collapsing entirely. At the same time biodiversity is being lost at an alarming rate all over the world which paints a picture of underlying poor health of ecosystems around us. The pressure is simply too strong and rate of change too rapid.

Environmental change will eventually cause societies to fail but here human factors come to play as well. This can be a gradual process also. Venezuelan economy and society has in many ways collapsed and I doubt this has caused neither imminent deaths nor improved health for Venezuelan type 2 diabetic patients.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 12:26:11 PM
<snip>
Venezuelan economy and society has in many ways collapsed and I doubt this has caused neither imminent deaths nor improved health for Venezuelan type 2 diabetic patients.

Many left the country. Exercise.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on August 07, 2019, 01:08:58 PM
Many left the country. Exercise.
Yep. And to get back on topic: how do you prep for a situation such as Venezuela? It's a good example of an economic collapse leading to breakdown of law and order. Not a one off incident but steady decline.

I suppose it's useful to be able to grow some food, generate some electricity and have reasonable stockpiles to get over the worst periods. Even more important would be to have practical skills and a good network of reliable friends and family. Electricians, mechanics and doctors can always trade their labour to useful things. This is not so easy for marketing managers and HR consultants.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on August 07, 2019, 02:56:42 PM
Venezuelan economy and society has in many ways collapsed and I doubt this has caused neither imminent deaths nor improved health for Venezuelan type 2 diabetic patients.
I did some research on health statistics on Iraq after the 2003 war. Lost when my laptop was stolen.
Diabetes was / is a big problem in Iraq, and the supply of insulin went down to almost zero, and a good many people died.

But the real killer was the collapse of the water and sanitation systems. Dysentry, some out breaks of cholera and non-availability of the basic magic fluid (sugars and salts and incredeibly cheap) caused the greatest number of deaths amongst the very young and very old.

And we are talking thousands, many thousands.

Your basic prepping package should include water purification filters and tablets, and a way of disposing of fecal matter safely, and in the longer-term ways of acquiring clean water.

 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 05:18:25 PM

Yep. And to get back on topic: how do you prep for a situation such as Venezuela? It's a good example of an economic collapse leading to breakdown of law and order. Not a one off incident but steady decline.

Global infrastructure is still intact. So not a good example I think. It is more of a south-american 'island' under severe attack from the U.S.A.. For decades.

@gerontocrat
"Lost when my laptop was stolen."
Shit!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 07, 2019, 06:58:46 PM
<snip>

Hi bbr2314,this is a well meant post. I feel your anger I think. Maybe I'm wrong but just wanna say that personally I have accepted that there's nothing we can do. Therefore I have peace and tranquillity.

I'm not downbeaten by the apocalyptic catastrophy unfolding because I'm not responsible, I'm not participating.
Humankind, or better: Civilisation is the destroyer. The conqueror.
To express my disgust of living in this civilisation, I try to be a good beautiful human with high morality and empathy. This is not my world. I live outside civilisation where possible. You should try it.

Perhaps time for change?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 07, 2019, 07:13:12 PM
Maybe I'm wrong but just wanna say that personally I have accepted that there's nothing we can do.


Well at least you qualified the statement. You are wrong. There are things we need to do and we need to start immediately. Going carbon free by 2050 will have a dramatic impact on the future of this planet and to suggest otherwise is dangerous.

Reminds me of a comment Bobby Knight (famous division I basketball coach) made in 1988.

''I think that if rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it.''

He was roundly criticized.

https://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/27/sports/knight-is-criticized-over-rape-remark.html
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 07, 2019, 09:04:15 PM
Creating and living an enviable lifestyle that both both remains comfortable and solves our fossil fuel dependence is the brass ring. First we figure out how to do that and then we need the costs of the infrastructure to drop to make it possible for the poor to participate.
 Spending lots of energy trying to change other people without good suggestions about what they should do seems pointless. People around here put up solar because it saves them money, EV seems to be getting there also. Smart meters and TOU ( time of use ) electric rates can incentivize grid users to move electric use to low cost hours and help flatten out use spikes. Batteries , solar , wind and a smart grid can decentralize power production.
 
Industry, the police, the military, aviation, food production, trucking ??  Big segments of our societies fossil fuel consumption seem deaf.  If this large segment of civilization, the parts that facilitate civil society , cannot also get their emissions moving towards zero then what ? 
 It seems we have a system where the largest portion of our carbon footprint continues unabated while our residential electricity and EV use are improving at least for the wealthy.  I can understand how people without money might question how they should proceed. Forward into the gleaming cities or back onto grandpa farm.  So going back or dropping out do have an appeal and for some I would think it makes more sense .  It's not like they are making a choice between a low carbon rural life that can address food , transport and infrastructure costs and the choice/option of a solar/battery suburban home with an EV in the garage. They don't have two options. 
 Not if reducing their carbon footprint is their goal.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 08, 2019, 05:04:57 AM
SH, I understand your view as one from inside civilisation. A correct one in that context I think.
Bruce, thank you for the different and, I think, more realistic and emphatic view.

My main concern is with how much remaining biodiversity there will be after civilisation has collapsed. How much beautiful rich complex life will survive the anthropogene. In my view, mass extinction and los of ecosystems is the main catastrophy. Most people are extreme human-centric (egocentric) I think.

I recon that the earlier civilisation collapses, the more life will remain to start a new episode without human technology; when rebuild of new biodiversity has still a good chance (ie not having to wait for millions of years).

Every extra year is another year of accelerated destruction. I think we agree on that.

Nobody's steering our 'Titanic' and all life on Earth are caught up in human's metaphorical Titanic. I wish, and expect, this Titanic to go crashing down under the waves soon. I have my eye on all other life on Earth. Not just humans and especially not civilisation which is responsible for so much suffering and destruction.
I have understood the unnatural (against nature) foundations of civilisation and understand there will never be a non-destruction future, ever, with these unnatural foundations.
It is so crazy that people don't want to think or even hear about these foundations. I've got used to getting bashed. Also from friends and family. I am alone alas. It is what it is.

I think only Earth's nature constraints will stop this. Technology (magic) cannot save us. No free lunch. Affluence is unsustainable, even for just the minority of richer people. It's also the blind and evil externalisation of 'costs'. Keep the dream alive for the richer minority (= nightmare for the majority, including all other life!).
You cannot cure the insanity of the system, the culture. It's a stampede.

I feel that I haven't been able to find the precise wording to express my ideas about this. Sorry if I have failed to be clear.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on August 08, 2019, 05:51:02 AM
nanning, I very much appreciate your posts.

We can be alone together  :)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 08, 2019, 08:40:49 AM
Thank you Human Habitat Index!
Alone but not lonely :). Here is an imaginary warm hug from me.


My 'preparation' for collapse story.

There was only one right thing I could do when learning about AGW and mass extinction and that is:

1. STOP PARTICIPATING.

During my hermitic research to find the foundations, the causes, I came to understand the madness of civilisation (see my posts in the "Is man the unnatural animal?"-thread).

2. MOVE OUT OF THE CULTURE OF CIVILISATION AS FAR AS POSSIBLE.

So I
 - Don't participate in the destruction, which means no affluence or ownership, be poor, don't take more than you need,  low CO2 etc.
 - Don't participate in the culture of low morality. I've raised my morality such as don't lie (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie), show respect and be kind to everyone, don't call names or curse, other life is as imporant as my own, no group behaviour, no temptations etc. I think I've understood/defined general morality. Why it matters and what it means (see posts in mentioned thread).

By choosing to be affluence-poor and reach for high morality I paved the way for me to be sane, happy and complete.
My 4 years in hermitage have been an enormous personal transformation and eyeopener. My 'view' has changed almost completely.
I'd like to think I have become a very rich human.

----------------------
As a side note:
Interesting from wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie#Consequences (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lie#Consequences):
Quote
When a lie is discovered, the state of mind and behavior of the liar is no longer predictable.

Hannah Arendt spoke about extraordinary cases in which an entire society is being lied to consistently. She said that the consequences of such lying are "not that you believe the lies, but rather that nobody believes anything any longer.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on August 08, 2019, 11:58:43 AM
Yeah, nanning, I agree.
If you don't try LSD or if you don't ever fall in love, you wouldn't know what a high in drugs means.
Unless you move away from civilization in a spiritual and physical way, you wouldn't feel that deep contact with nature that makes you feel so complete and serene.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on August 08, 2019, 12:06:13 PM
I like to think that I am a spiritual being having a human experience rather than a human being having a spiritual experience.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on August 08, 2019, 12:52:13 PM
Nanning, many others share your general perspective, even if perhaps few have been as successful at fully decoupling from the juggernaut.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 10, 2019, 12:46:58 PM
For me collapse will come like a candle snuffed out in a cave.


The garage door doesn't respond to repeated clicks - so I back up the ramp, fumble for my key and work the lock - to no avail.

To hell with it. As I head to the restaurant I notice that traffic lights are down. Everyone's calm, this is Canada, make way for the other guy and wait your turn. The doors are open wide at Maria's. She greats me at the door and explains in broken English that the power's out, the water's off and the gas is down. She's let the help off for the evening shift. Over luke warm cokes she begs my forgiveness, assures me she'll be open for breakfast - and waves off payment for the drink.

Back at my building the door to the lobby's propped open, the chairs and couches are fully occupied by old ladies who call the building home. They're probably in the lobby to avoid the hike to their apartments with the elevators frozen in place. I consider the climb to my 16th floor flat, then opt for the Hilton.

Still no traffic lights, but on arriving I discover that my plastic is worthless.
I head toward the hospital hoping to re-up my meds, but traffic is impossible so I drive to a friends home in Kitchener using the back roads. No radio, no TV, no phones, no way to contact anyone, no way for them to contact you. No one has any idea what's happening anyway.

I garage my car, poop in her garden and pee beside her house. We share some warm beer, a few cold sandwiches and any number of conspiracy theorys - but my pills are in short supply. I head back to Cambridge after a tearful goodbye, only to find the pharmacy's shelves have been stripped - and that the warm refrigerated boxes smell badly even with the contents gone. I spend the night sleeping in the car outside my apartment building. Sleeping in the car leaves me cramped, stiff and grumpy.

Then they begin. Thousands from Toronto with curious children and terrified wives. Soon tens of thousands more arrive, cars are abandoned on streets, roads and the 401. The next day the migrant hordes increase yet again, but now they're on foot and all are desperate. Nothing is secure from them, nothing survives their rapacious hungers. Parents fear for their children, children fear their surroundings and everyone fears what the future holds. My still operating car gets noticed, noticed but not attacked.

It's been a week. No word from anyone or anywhere. Looted stores, food vending machines torn open, but coins left strewn across the floor. Some people have formed into mobs. Some defending against the interlopers, some battling against the defenders. All sure that their side is justified. All sure their side will prevail. Fires flicker through the night. Families and loners stumble across trampled fields in search of sustenance. Something to eat - perhaps just somewhere to hide that night. Overloaded canoes manned by people who've never been on the water, but who believe that things must be better down stream. The local weir becomes a deathtrap. Bloated bodies bob in the river or tangle against the shoreline, disturbing those filling their water bottles. We locals know where the streams are - not pristine, but surely better than the river.

Fishermen swarm the banks and the bridges. The few who meet with any success scurry off with fish tails flapping from a bulging pocket. Abandoned children cast covetous glances at the scaly protrusions as the triumphant anglers shrink their postures and furtively make for some hidden spot to prepare their tiny, but hopefully solitary repast. Most everyone is silent, avoiding others, especially the eyes of others. The Farmer's Market is abandoned for the first time in 150 years. Barter might have worked, but the farmers that could still manage their bi-weekly journeys are not interested in leaving their fields, their families or their livestock.

If there is law enforcement, they are certainly invisible. No sirens, few horns, a few muffled explosions  - usually at night - The heavy bell donated by Queen Victoria must have been electrified at some point, it's been silent from the first. Now the silence is only broken by an occasional shout, a scream or the rare shot. I've swung by city hall, but the broken windows and small fires don't engender hope from that quarter. Homes and apartments are mainly occupied by owners and renters. Public buildings, stores and shops are freely used by others. Some have been trashed - most provide shelter, at least marginally.

I've given up on my 16th floor apartment and it's contents - but note my great coat covering an emaciated form sleeping under someone's hedge. The weather has been good. Not too hot during the day. Not too cold at night. Thank God there's been no rain as the big storm drains have been occupied for days.

As my metabolism slows my hunger is abated. I haven't seen a pet for days or heard a dog bark. Even squirrels are scarce. I'm running on empty and so is my car. I decide to set out for Blair. Only an easy hike from the city but few people and little traffic - even the Toronto crazies may have missed Blair - perhaps the GPS going down isn't without benefit. My car shudders to a stop just short of the village. It blocks one lane, but I haven't seen a moving vehicle for hours. I hobble along Blair Road, fill my bottle at the old mill pond, then up the steep hill to the old cemetery. I know the area well.

I obey the No Trespassing signs and avoid cutting through peoples yards. Old habits die hard in the minds of the old. My childhood home is beside the cemetery, it peaks out between the now mature pines.

The view is still magnificent. If there had been cattle or sheep they're gone. The ospreys, eagles and hawks still tend to their fledglings, but vultures don't waste time circling as rotting carrion is everywhere. Ageless root fences break the horizon. Not a cloud in the sky - nor a contrail.

Walking has been difficult for decades. I lean against a gigantic willow, remembering that the Iroquois called this the valley of the River of Weeping Willows. Maybe this one was flourishing then - it's certainly big enough. The aged Ash I'd once waxed poetic about has been axed. I found a large hollow and pressed myself into the willow. I close my eyes.

Through lowered lids I reviewed the past week. Was this the collapse we so feared? Why were we never notified? Why didn't the authorities take any interest? Were similar scenarios playing out through the country, the continent, the world? I'll never know. I'll never reopened my eyes.

Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 10, 2019, 04:20:14 PM
Not to be rude but it is much more likely you will be dead before "collapse" as an old person, this is also why old people fantasize about collapse in particular, because it is re-assuring to imagine the world you were born into is obliterated before you are dead, as if it cannot go on without your existence.

For TerryM, and for most or all of us here, death is likely to come anticlimactically from heart attacks or cancer or strokes or sudden car crashes.

Perhaps this is why the collapse narrative is so prominent and attractive to so many (even if it is also actually possible).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 10, 2019, 04:45:43 PM
Wow Terry, you've missed a calling. Great to read and very plausible I'd say.

Of course there's the military etc. Are they going to save the country?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on August 10, 2019, 04:49:01 PM
How would you describe the collapse bbr2314? I don't mean when.
Such as if large electricity infrastructure fails, as in Terry's story.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on August 10, 2019, 06:23:16 PM
Wow Terry, you've missed a calling. Great to read and very plausible I'd say.

Of course there's the military etc. Are they going to save the country?
If push comes to shove, they will save themselves, as will those who have an entree to the safe places built during the cold war.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on August 10, 2019, 10:51:44 PM
Not to be rude but it is much more likely you will be dead before "collapse" as an old person, this is also why old people fantasize about collapse in particular, because it is re-assuring to imagine the world you were born into is obliterated before you are dead, as if it cannot go on without your existence.

For TerryM, and for most or all of us here, death is likely to come anticlimactically from heart attacks or cancer or strokes or sudden car crashes.

Perhaps this is why the collapse narrative is so prominent and attractive to so many (even if it is also actually possible).

Most people actually spend their final years to keep everything as is, so that the world doesn't change after they're gone. People become more conservative as they grow older, and I don't find fantasizing about collapse a very conservative thing to do.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on August 11, 2019, 12:11:22 AM
Not to be rude but it is much more likely you will be dead before "collapse" as an old person, this is also why old people fantasize about collapse in particular, because it is re-assuring to imagine the world you were born into is obliterated before you are dead, as if it cannot go on without your existence.

For TerryM, and for most or all of us here, death is likely to come anticlimactically from heart attacks or cancer or strokes or sudden car crashes.

Perhaps this is why the collapse narrative is so prominent and attractive to so many (even if it is also actually possible).

Most people actually spend their final years to keep everything as is, so that the world doesn't change after they're gone. People become more conservative as they grow older, and I don't find fantasizing about collapse a very conservative thing to do.
This may be so, but I still think what I said holds true for many people (particularly men). It is why end-of-world conspiracies are so attractive etc, in my opinion.

It is actually kind of re-assuring to think that most, or all, of us are likely to die of boring horribly natural non-cataclysmic causes vs. as a result of collapse. Glass half full!  8)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: MyACIsDying on August 11, 2019, 10:47:41 AM
Bbr, what you're describing is only valid for the immoral man. Terry's story serves as a beautiful contrast.

The immoral man, who fears judgment, would be unable to see such peaceful end. Instead they fantasize about becoming kings of their own domain, rewriting all rules to be buried in gold and honour, redeemed of the crimes they committed in their previous life.

I do find solace in the idea that even if the rich manage to escape to their doomsday bunkers, they have clearly forgotten the fact that their top position in the system is worthless once the bottom falls out. No doctors, no farmers, no plumbers, no engineers. The provisions they stored will only give them more time to realize how poorly they've treated the common folk.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on August 14, 2019, 03:47:54 PM
Quote
SteveMDFP

You're jumping to conclusions about my words.  Reduced caloric intake  + exercise will often resolve Type II diabetes, no demise required.

Don't forget to mention a high potency vitamin intake with reduced caloric diets. Without them you will suffer from malnutrition.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on August 14, 2019, 06:04:06 PM
If you reduce calories by eating sensible nutritious food instead of hamburgers and fries (as a random example) you don´t need vitamin pills.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on August 14, 2019, 07:13:41 PM
Some people absorb vitamins at a different rate. So some vitamins can always be needed ( e.g. D )
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Villabolo on August 14, 2019, 09:52:09 PM
<snip>

I do find solace in the idea that even if the rich manage to escape to their doomsday bunkers, they have clearly forgotten the fact that their top position in the system is worthless once the bottom falls out. No doctors, no farmers, no plumbers, no engineers. The provisions they stored will only give them more time to realize how poorly they've treated the common folk.

Unfortunately, many of the elite are buying property and houses in New Zealand, apparently with the assurance that they would have access to modern infrastructure and services. Those rats will be the first to abandon ship.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DrTskoul on August 15, 2019, 02:48:15 AM
New zealanders are rather independent and stubborn folk.... will see where elites go to when the rest figure it out...
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 15, 2019, 03:33:20 AM
We also are inclined to be horribly disrespectful of your social position.
Those who think they will come here and lord it over us will be in for a shock.
 
There was an interesting discussion here on talk back a few months back.
How will the elites who come here to bunker down keep their position if their money no longer buys loyalty? If your money is worthless along with your skills you will be prey.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on August 15, 2019, 07:34:18 PM
^^
Ramen


Years ago one of the prepper sites strongly advised everyone to stay where they were and to build deep ties to the local community.
I think that was just before I moved across the continent. ???
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rodius on August 18, 2019, 10:03:21 AM
Those rich people who thinking hiding in New Zealand will find New Zealanders wont take kindly to them.
The people there will find them and deal with them fairly appropriately.
And there are not many places to hide in NZ either.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Ktb on August 18, 2019, 02:27:27 PM
And there are not many places to hide in NZ either.

Actually, New Zealand has the best trail hiking system I have ever encountered, with huts with beds and fireplaces, long drop toilets and more. I hiked out to a hut that nobody had been to for more than 6 years.

New Zealand has millions of places to hide out.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 19, 2019, 12:05:23 AM
Yeah: watch Hunt for the Wilderpeople (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8Xvsjy57X0)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: petm on August 19, 2019, 12:27:49 AM
That looks awesome!  :D
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Rodius on August 19, 2019, 08:30:28 AM
And there are not many places to hide in NZ either.

Actually, New Zealand has the best trail hiking system I have ever encountered, with huts with beds and fireplaces, long drop toilets and more. I hiked out to a hut that nobody had been to for more than 6 years.

New Zealand has millions of places to hide out.

I spent a good twenty years hiking all over NZ.
And you are right, the huts and tracks are good.... but not for the rich and certainly not a place most people could survive without taking stuff with them. I could do it only because I have a truck load of experience doing it.... but not many others would. The environment alone would kill most, finding enough food would be second. Heaps of water though.

As for hiding out, NZ is small, there is nowhere to hide that you can live long term in and for the entire year.
I have bumped into too many hunters and locals to believe anyone wanting to hide in the bush in NZ will remain hidden or long.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 31, 2019, 09:18:55 PM
Here's a model for how a community might survive civilization collapse:
 
The Pacifist Democracy That's Survived for Nearly Two Thousand Years
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jw8ZQAQyH8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jw8ZQAQyH8)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 09, 2019, 06:22:52 PM
Very provocative article in The New Yorker by the Jonathan Franzen:
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultural-comment/what-if-we-stopped-pretending?

Cultural Comment
What If We Stopped Pretending?
The climate apocalypse is coming. To prepare for it, we need to admit that we can’t prevent it.
By Jonathan Franzen
September 8, 2019

Franzen believes that while it may be theoretically possible to avoid climate apocalypse, the chances of actually avoiding it are vanishingly small.  This leads him to several interesting observations about what we should be doing.  Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

For example "Every billion dollars spent on high-speed trains ... is a billion not banked for disaster preparedness, reparations to inundated countries, or future humanitarian relief."  He argues that we should be thinking about how to delay calamity and how to respond to it, not "waste" resources on projects that cannot and will not accomplish the objective of "solving" the climate problem.



Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 09, 2019, 07:32:14 PM
And the inevitable blowback:

https://www.businessinsider.com/scientists-blast-jonathan-franzens-climate-doomist-new-yorker-op-ed-2019-9?fbclid=IwAR2eLlRGZKIdYyBtyv2Xl_dh79zEpWVhCRgkeWERxm3X9IQcIwZTAut_WZM
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on September 09, 2019, 09:19:18 PM
I've read both the article and the blowback, and the latter to me exemplifies left-wing denial that in some ways is even worse than the classic climate risk denial. I will dive some more into the blowback on Twitter to see if they actually address points made in the New Yorker article.

edit: Diving into the blowback reinforced my opinion. So many people who claim to accept AGW just don't get it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 09, 2019, 09:34:38 PM
I agree, Neven.  And if you hear any rebuttals of Franzen's piece, or really any statements about the fight against climate change that include any of the following, you are being sold the kind of "left-wing denial" that Neven calls out: "Not only must we fight climate change, but it will be GOOD for the economy," or "Fighting climate change will provide millions of great, high paying jobs," or other similar arguments.  Green New Deal, anyone?  This is exactly the wrong message.  We need to be striving for new ways of thinking about employment, success and life-satisfaction that are completely divorced from the production/consumption economy.  If we aren't having that discussion, we aren't talking about addressing the sustainability crisis.  Well, we aren't having that discussion, and I think this is why Franzen does not think we will meet the challenge.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bbr2314 on September 09, 2019, 09:36:23 PM
I've read both the article and the blowback, and the latter to me exemplifies left-wing denial that in some ways is even worse than the classic climate risk denial. I will dive some more into the blowback on Twitter to see if they actually address points made in the New Yorker article.

edit: Diving into the blowback reinforced my opinion. So many people who claim to accept AGW just don't get it.
The left-wing denial is worse because they say they are educated and look down on all the right-wing deniers in spite of their "privileged" position re: information / etc. It is the difference between simple and occasionally malevolent ignorance, and insufferable righteousness.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on September 09, 2019, 10:07:21 PM
Well, we aren't having that discussion, and I think this is why Franzen does not think we will meet the challenge.

Yes, ironically, the 'blowback' proves his point.

The left-wing denial is worse.

Yes, in some ways it is worse, because it is even more difficult to overcome than classic climate risk denial, but nothing tops the right-wing PR 'doubt is our product' industry.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on September 09, 2019, 10:53:02 PM
The problem is that Franzen's piece (that I have read) will be taken up by the Heritage Foundation et al, and twisted and distorted by their tame "experts" e.g. Bjorn Lomberg, into the "The solutions are worse than the problem" denial paradigm.

Our loony right-wing will be so happy to pick up from a pseudo-scientist such a false story built from perverting the thoughts of a good man like Franzen, and many voters will swallow it. More obstacles in the way of practical steps such as getting rid of fossil fuel electricity and replacing it with cheaper electricity.

I agree with Franzen that really horrible times are coming (not just from Global Heating), and there will be some daft projects. But if they are stopped, does he really believe the capital will be spent on "prepping for collapse"? Not a damn chance, more like on projects accelerating BAU.

And when these horrible times come, those who have access to electricity from renewable energy (especially on the roof) will have a better chance of survival than those who do not.
____________________________________________________________
In a mid-latitude country like the UK, on-shore wind is the cheapest form of electric power generation, cheaper even than the most efficient coal or gas existing generators. Even Solar is cheaper than the asset life cost of generating electricity from new gas (or nuclear) power stations.

My excuse for a Government has banned new on-shore wind and is promoting furiously new nuclear.

It's economic policy? In 3 words - GDP growth (forever)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: DaveHitz on September 10, 2019, 12:48:30 AM
Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

Here's my problem with this line of thinking. I do not think it's possible to "win" in the sense of avoiding climate change. Too much is already baked in.

However, with inaction it is possible to make things ever worse. Even if we've "lost" the war, we should still stop digging our hole deeper, faster.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 10, 2019, 02:54:19 AM
Did you read the piece, DH? I think Franzen would endorse both of your statements.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: zizek on September 10, 2019, 05:02:13 AM
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Hefaistos on September 10, 2019, 05:15:30 AM
Perhaps most provocatively he writes "All-out war on climate change made sense only as long as it was winnable." 

Here's my problem with this line of thinking. I do not think it's possible to "win" in the sense of avoiding climate change. Too much is already baked in.

However, with inaction it is possible to make things ever worse. Even if we've "lost" the war, we should still stop digging our hole deeper, faster.

After all, we don't know the time scale of climate change. But we know the time scale of history. We know what incredible achievements mankind has made in terms of fighting disease, poverty, etc. And all this has happened during 3-4 generations.
We know that technology is forewer developing. We know that some renewables are already cheaper than fossile fuels, and that trends are very promising for these technologies. We know that humanity is extremely adaptable to changing conditions.
The time scale of climate change, to achieve a state of equilibrium, is not 100's of years, it's 1000's of years. Bad things will undoubtebly happen to the next 3-4 generations, but the time scale is one magnitude larger, more like 30-40 generation.
There is as much hope today, as there was in the 1970's when we were all soon to be doomed by the Club of Rome modelling excercises.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 10, 2019, 08:01:35 AM
Thanks for your post Gerontocrat. I'd like to put a spotlight on your survival statement (not adressing you btw).
<snip>
And when these horrible times come, those who have access to electricity from renewable energy (especially on the roof) will have a better chance of survival than those who do not.


Indeed a horrible future.
I imagine the new normal situation where those with renewable energy and/or food will agressively defend their 'castle' and possessions while the majority who don't have any energy or food will be left to starve or fight and win.

Eternal competition in the evil fantasyworld of 'survival of the fittest'.

Cooperation doesn't seem to enter the minds of most people.
Our very basic strength as a social species doesn't seem to exist in consumerists' minds.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on September 10, 2019, 10:04:05 AM
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

That would be me. I just used a quick, general term for expediency.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: aperson on September 10, 2019, 10:31:37 AM
I think some of you are confusing liberal denial with "left-wing denial".

This is an excellent and important distinction to clarify. The liberals want to maintain the status quo just as much as the denialists, they just have different tactics. It is important we don't use tactics that can be coopted by them when advocating environmental justice.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: MyACIsDying on September 10, 2019, 11:10:31 AM
I still find this 'left-wing denial' attitude seen battled here by Frazer and recently by Zizek, a straw men. Who are they talking about specifically may I ask?

Politicians like AOC who vote yes for emergency children concentration camp funds after a tearful photo-op at such place?

Bernie Sanders? He'll turn red and shut over-production the fuck down as soon as he get's a chance. He's just navigating the precarious waters of domino theory induced anti-communist sentiment.

The voters? Again.. I don't recall any left-side-of-isle voter who believes the planet will be fine if we install enough renewables or that we'll remove all risks and current trajectory with a carbon tax. They all know that's first we need to fix the corruption if real changes are to happen. How that's supposed to happen doesn't hinge on our believe that we're doomed. It hinges on common sense. As in sense of the common.

So be careful with strawmen. It never helps make anything more clear. Perhaps Zizek's debate with Peterson got him to caught up in that world of echo chambers needing their hate posters.

Frazer just pisses me off having to read how there's no sense to do anything because you're foolish to think there's hope, but still go do exactly those things because there's some sense to them.. A small note about radical change meaning a downturn in production but then not provide any realistic suggestions. This stuff only serves to feed the reactionary drama machine and make scientists appear destitute.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Simon on September 10, 2019, 12:20:59 PM
We need to source our primary energy in such a way that does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels. This is actually quite easy compared with mining coal, extracting oil and gas.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 10, 2019, 01:23:19 PM
A couple of points here.  The Democratic party in the US would be a centrist party in much of the world.  Warren regularly calls herself a "capitalist" and argues that fighting climate change will be good for the economy and create tons of great jobs. The Green New Deal sells itself as a jobs program.  Only Andrew Yang is talking about the future of work, which is one of the key issues facing humanity.  Bernie comes close to getting it (maybe), but with the balance of powers in the US Constitution and the current make up of the Supreme Court, no president could possibly create change at the scale that is required.

Just because renewables are "cheaper than coal" does not mean that we can transform the global energy system in anything remotely close to the needed timescale. The fossil fuel industry will fight for DECADES to amortize the sunk costs of its infrastructure and to avoid stranding its booked assets.

It is these socio-economic forces that makes Franzen pessimistic that humanity will rise to the challenge.  By all means fight them, but they are massive and tenacious.

And finally, Franzen is NOT saying "Give up and party 'cause the game is up." He is saying we need to think carefully about our priorities.  Taking the argument to its extreme, if a storm flooded New York and a million people were homeless and desperate should the government say "Hey, sorry, we're building solar farm and have no money to help you"?  That's (one of) the questions he asking.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: MyACIsDying on September 10, 2019, 02:11:09 PM
The Democractic party is not centrist. Hillary nuked socialism, as I mention AOC (the most leftist??) votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

The 2016 election showed that they don't even care about what little electoralism is left of Democracy in the US. It's a nepotistic party of anti-humanitarians who'd rather see the world burn so they don't have to take care of all the poor folks anymore.

Franzen re-prioritizes the same things we already know, while in the meantime providing fodder for all kinds of AGW denialists, Collapse fantasizers and most importantly the status quo to not really change anything, because he says right there it's extremely unlikely to happen.

What about some actual, realistic suggestions? If you want to highlight problems with the Green Deal, do so properly, I read this yesterday and makes for a lot saner perspective than this drama inviting provocation. https://www.marxist.com/marxism-vs-modern-monetary-theory-mmt.htm

Saying we can't afford solar panels because else we might miss funds to take care of people later is a completely useless and bs argument. How about taking care of both? And yes, also reducing productivity greatly. It's all possible if we stop being so obsessed about having to prove how other peoples ideologies are wrong. Just prove that yours is right.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: NevB on September 10, 2019, 03:12:07 PM
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments are helpful or fair as there's no evidence for this, it's just conjecture that suits your bias. Wouldn't it be better to find what she actually said about the situation ?

As an outsider (Perth Australia) with no knowledge of the details I would imagine emergency funding would be kind of essential after locking the children up (which wasn't her doing) what's she supposed to do block funding and allow them to starve?

Is there any better reason with any evidence of why this happened ?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: MyACIsDying on September 10, 2019, 03:46:52 PM
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments are helpful or fair as there's no evidence for this, it's just conjecture that suits your bias. Wouldn't it be better to find what she actually said about the situation ?

As an outsider (Perth Australia) with no knowledge of the details I would imagine emergency funding would be kind of essential after locking the children up (which wasn't her doing) what's she supposed to do block funding and allow them to starve?

Is there any better reason with any evidence of why this happened ?
Sometimes I get lost in trying to imagine the real world behind those political words. There's no reason to expect news will cover the majority of the horrific side of the establishment so I feel like I try to make sense in the best way I can. Don't get me started on Betsy deVos.

They cannot vote for such funding under the motto of providing better care. The taxpayer pays over $700 per night per child. https://www.gq.com/story/trump-detention-camps-cost
Trump hotels don't even charge that much.
Nancy does hold a lot investments. In companies linked to these firms, and that's what we know. https://gizmodo.com/turns-out-all-kinds-of-tech-companies-are-working-with-1827006046
A little far fetched maybe but in the end is all about creating demand for the companies you can pick.

AOC recently got rid of her good leftist political advisors and has since voted yes on a recent emergency funding addition of a few hundred million I cannot find back.. I looked at the house voting records. I can only imagine what happened and apologize for stating my conjecture as fact.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: NevB on September 10, 2019, 03:50:24 PM
votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

I don't think these sort of comments ......
Sometimes I get lost in trying to imagine the real world behind those political words. There's no reason to expect news will cover the majority of the horrific side of the establishment so I feel like I try to make sense in the best way I can. Don't get me started on Betsy deVos.

They cannot vote for such funding under the motto of providing better care. The taxpayer pays over $700 per night per child. https://www.gq.com/story/trump-detention-camps-cost
Trump hotels don't even charge that much.
Nancy does hold a lot investments. In companies linked to these firms, and that's what we know. https://gizmodo.com/turns-out-all-kinds-of-tech-companies-are-working-with-1827006046
A little far fetched maybe but in the end is all about creating demand for the companies you can pick.

AOC recently got rid of her good leftist political advisors and has since voted yes on a recent emergency funding addition of a few hundred million I cannot find back.. I looked at the house voting records. I can only imagine what happened and apologize for stating my conjecture as fact.

Thanks, that's I very decent of you.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: blumenkraft on September 10, 2019, 03:55:01 PM
Thanks, that's I very decent of you.

+1
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 10, 2019, 04:18:53 PM
I don't think a discussion about political parties gets us to a renewable infrastructure. It probably will just get us in a fight ,as usual. There has to be someone working their ass off somewhere who has either conquered or nearly conquered this challenge . Grow food, use renewable energy and transport options to get the job done. Every tool we need is already available but I have still not seen a working example. Well there are lots of primitive options but let's restrict ourselves to options that can scale to feeding billions of people.
 Maybe because I am a farmer and a fisherman I think food is key to any sustainability conversation.
Housing , heating or cooling, and transport all have to have their part but I think food production is where we are really falling down. Yes growing a garden and foraging can get someone through a collapse scenario but scaling those options won't get anywhere near enough food to sell and support a large village or city. 
 Money will buy the tools to accomplish a low carbon infrastructure but to really get to zero carbon you need to bury carbon also. There is just too much embodied energy in steel or batteries to get to zero carbon without sinking carbon and there currently isn't a way to sink carbon without proper farming techniques. . So again I think farming is the key although sail supported fishing also fits the bill or at least compliments a healthy zero carbon farm. 
 So we collectively spend billions on solar, wind and batteries but somehow farmers going broke or ways to fix our soils is the business of who ?
 This is NOT an impossible task. We are not doomed to failure although no existing political structure is prioritizing farming as the key . So we need a political structure that does and I assume after enough people get onboard politicians will figure out how to skim their profits . Skimming enough to pay their six figure pensions is the topic of another talk about priorities .
 
 

 
 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on September 10, 2019, 04:59:37 PM
David Wallace-Wells wrote something on the lines that we have technology to prevent CC just as we have the technology to prevent wars, crime and poverty. Yet they are all here because technology is not the difficult part.

We can like or dislike Franzen's opinion all we want, but the inconvenient truth remains that facts are pointing towards an incoming climate catastrophe. Despite all the hot air about dirt-cheap renewables and fancy electric vehicles we cannot even stop the growth of emissions, let alone reduce them to zero. Many, if not the most, nations and corporations aren't even trying. Let's face it fellas, it's not gonna happen.

I didn't read Franzen's article as a recommendation to party like it's 1999.  On the contrary, we should do everything in our power to soften the blow while at the same time prepare for it.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 10, 2019, 05:38:28 PM
Blueice, To say " we have the technology to avoid cc "  is not the same thing as demonstrating the capabilities of existing infrastructures.
 To say " technology is not the difficult part " without offering up a single working example is weak beyond comment . Considering what's at stake we need more prepping, at least that is action and almost always involves some gardening.
 I happen I like the David Wells, Franzen , Gretta style of in your face comunication. I also think their message would be much stronger with real world examples of excellence. Who are our real leaders out there who can show us what we can individually do, what it will cost, and how to create a movement around success?  The one thing I am sure about is that money is not the limiting factor although profit may be.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 10, 2019, 06:25:51 PM
I'm with you Bruce, all the way but we differ on what we individually can do. For a start we could live like we did in the 50s. Less energy use. Less technology. More connected to others. More cooperation :). There's your 'prepping' best chance.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bluice on September 10, 2019, 06:37:27 PM
Bruce, ”technology is not the difficult part” is counter argument to the technocrats and techno-utopians out there who think that once renewables are cheap enough and technology mature enough we can just sit back and wait for the emissions to fall. In reality however we are not lacking tech but people’s involvement and that’s why it’s important that someone like Greta shows us that emperor has no clothes.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 10, 2019, 07:59:13 PM
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 10, 2019, 08:04:18 PM
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 10, 2019, 08:24:34 PM
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: bligh8 on September 10, 2019, 09:06:57 PM

"We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink."

Stop burning natural gas .. all of it! There's your engineered collapse, let the cards fall where they
will.

"I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie."

Did you take the red or blue pill, but a bit more serious....I'm with ya that one.

bligh 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: philopek on September 10, 2019, 10:24:17 PM
BAU is driving us to collapse.

Yeah and still most people, even here, promote BEVs and Batteries as solutions while they are not.

Batteries are just like covering old debts with new money in a ponzi scheme. Batteries are a workaround at best but far from being a solution and certainly part of one of the many next big problems.

We have to change our lifestyle radically and if we don't do it freely we shall end up with things forced upon us and once again only a few will be able to dodge those bullets.

This means that I agree 100% with your views but have to restrain myself a lot to stay put when reading through all the illusionary hypocrisy elsewhere where some guys really only ponder over
how to maintain the current lifestyle, a undertaking that is doomed like nothing else.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 10, 2019, 11:39:28 PM
<snip>

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink.
This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.
Thanks SH
I'm in total agreement with your 1st paragraph.


I don't understand yet why collapse now would be preferable to collapse then. Most of the damage that we can do has already been done. We might save a few forests by acting now, but these will probably be lost in the chaos of the collapse in either case.


I can't think of what benefits an "induced" collapse would bring to the survivors. Benefits that wouldn't be destroyed during the collapse itself.  I can imagine that if we were somehow able to push collapse back an extra decade or so, some might be better prepared than they are now to put in place systems that might survive.


If Bruce has additional decades to work on his sustainable farming experiment he might just succeed. If sidd's farm has more time to evolve, the results might increase the odds of survival for many. I don't want to continue naming specific individuals because I'll miss some that should have been included, but even in our tiny community there are many that are highly motivated to learn and teach others techniques that might mitigate some of the horrors the next generations will face.


I've no idea what their odds of success are, but anything that increases the time they have to work on these problems has to be a positive, doesn't it?
Terry

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 11, 2019, 01:41:33 AM
Terry, I got into the global warming/ arctic ice melt discussion because I was early into research on the ocean acidification problem which quickly leads into the carbon cycle ( they are kinda the same thing ).
Ocean heating , atmospheric heating, ocean acidification, ocean hypoxia, and arctic melting are all tied together.
 To get the average surface ocean pH down to where we reach omega , about 7.8pH, and where
aragonite
( a common form of biological calcium carbonate ) begins to dissolve we need to dump ~ 5000 GT carbon into the atmosphere. So far we have dumped between 600 and 700 GT carbon.  Yes the permafrost will continue to melt and release methane and CO2 even after we stop our fossil fuel frenzy and we are already locked into additional greenhouse gas emissions but I don’t think the system is locked into 4300 GT of carbon yet. If I am wrong it’s already game over but I don’t feel like conceding
quite yet.
 We didn’t have solar or battery technology that might , just might , soften the blow one or two decades ago.We didn’t have today’s technology and efficiencies of solar power will improve as we move forward.
 No we can’t run BAU on solar but we can use it to improve survivability/ sustainability at least for a decade into the future... whenever the lights go out. It most certainly will power water wells, help with sanitation, refrigeration and as a result makes small agriculture more viable. Biodiesel isn’t that difficult either so we can power tractors far into the future. So if groups of people that have no idea how to feed themselves need a decade to learn it buys some time. If those of us motivated can prove up on low carbon farming and get the word out to whoever is interested it affords the possibility that there will be enough food around to get a larger number of agrarians through a bottleneck. If civilization falls hard the supply chains that keep equipment running will fail so most all technology will have a short timeline until a breakdown means we go back to beasts of burden. A decade or two allows some sort of planned retreat.
 I happen to believe civility and law of some form are preconditions to any orderly retreat . I don’t know how to prepare for civility if total chaos ensues. If chaos is our only way to save the vast biological heritage of earth then let lose the dogs but I am not sure chaos is inevitable or that all is lost yet. Where between 600 and 5000 GT we cross that line I am not sure and nobody else knows either.
If we are still talking about this as we cross 1000GT and our 2 degree thermal limit then maybe I will wish Shared Humanity managed to pull us down earlier.
 
 
 




Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ShortBrutishNasty on September 11, 2019, 03:49:46 AM
Here is the obligatory two-part analysis for any article coming out of NYC or MSM:

1.  Is the author denying climate change? 

2.  If not, is the author denying urgency?

Franzen's little nugget (from Reply #350):

"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.


Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 11, 2019, 05:49:15 AM
Bruce
Something I've seen here were 3 antique tractors that were engineered to run on just about any liquid that would burn. They were started using gasoline, then switched tanks to allow them to burn heating oil, kerosene, alcohol or just about anything else according to their proud owners.
I don't remember the manufacturer, (they may have been from Eastern Europe?). they were pre WWII and a distinguishing feature was the horizontal radiator that used heat being dissipated to suck fresh air through the radiator even when idling or operating a power takeoff. My guess is that they were using some modified version of a hot bulb engine.
Sorry I don't have any more information. I've been unable to find anything on the internet that looks like the three that I saw. I'll try to get more information if I see another at the fall fairs.


I'm mentioning this because if such a beast could be located and rebuilt it might prove it's worth when or if fuel supply lines are cut. Hot bulb engines weren't terribly efficient, but they were reliable and weren't fussy about what they burned.


Best of luck with the new batteries. :)
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Ktb on September 11, 2019, 06:09:14 AM
"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.

Net zero by 2050 is a joke.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 11, 2019, 06:33:15 AM
<snip>
BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I completely agree SH. This is what I've been thinking for some time.
De-growth is essential. It means stopping the growth. Doing away with the GDP 'metric'. Stopping profit. Stopping return-on-investment. Stopping the addiction to more more more.

As we are currently losing more and more of our political systems to commerce and rich people, and human rights are lost in the process. So using politics to bring about change in the growth system is a vanishing option.
Even China and Russia, having more powerful political systems, cannot go back. It is a race to the end (like the final moments after untying an inflated party-balloon).

What SH wrote is correct imo. Apart from the approaching uncontrolled collapse, the growth system stops only if enough of the consumerists stop. Enough of them to start influencing the rest through grouppressure and being a good example. Critical mass etc.
I am setting a good example; living amongst consumerists and having a very decent living. For everyone to see. Right in your face. But if it's only 1 person it won't work.

First step: break MSM and marketing. That is what's keeping consumerists in 'The Dream', otherwise known as 'The Apocalypse'.

How to wean people from the almighty TV and from constantly being inside (heated/airco'd home and car and office and shops).
Inside is the destructive dream. Outside is reality.

Question: How many hours/minutes per day on average are you outside, unprotected by enclosure and without smartphonescreen (=inside)?


edit: added shops
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 11, 2019, 07:01:16 AM
We need to source our primary energy in such a way that does not increase atmospheric CO2 levels. This is actually quite easy compared with mining coal, extracting oil and gas.

We(*) had it so easy with so much freedom, equality, diversity and intense shared experiences not so long ago. For the 'we' in the expanding conquering civilisation you have to go further back. 10000 years or so.
Civilisation went totally in the wrong direction. Control living nature by technological forces in stead of cooperating and living with nature. We have to revert to old ways of doing things. Retrace our steps, our wrong cultural choices.

(*) this "We" means all of humankind, not just civilisation. For example the Frisians lost it 2000 years ago, the North-American indiginous 'indians' lost it 400 years ago, the Australian aboriginals lost it some 250 years ago, the Amazonian indiginous 'indians' are losing it NOW.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ritter on September 11, 2019, 05:38:10 PM
Prepping for collapse is one approach. Working together to engineer a collapse that occurs more rapidly than the one we work to forestall is a better approach.
Could you expand on this? It sounds counter intuitive.
Thanks
Terry

BAU is driving us to collapse. Over the past 40 years, nothing has been done to derail us from behavior that is causing rapid increases in atmospheric CO2. This approaching collapse will be total; environmental, institutional, societal; an end to human civilization as we know it.

We need to engineer a collapse in the growth system that is driving us to the brink. This is simultaneously our only hope and terrifying. 2008 demonstrated just how fragile the worldwide financial system is. The engine that drives the system is consumers. Industry supplies what we demand. A fairly significant percentage of consumers need to decide to no longer participate in this dance with death, alter their consumption patterns to such an extent as to bring down the entire financial edifice, disaster capitalism if you will with the sole purpose of reinventing how we live.

I sometimes feel as if I am living in the Matrix movie.

In some respects, the sooner collapse happens, the less destruction we will have wrought and the more resources will remain to transition to.... something else. It's a horrible thing to contemplate. Very interesting discussion going on.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 11, 2019, 09:00:02 PM
The Democractic party is not centrist. Hillary nuked socialism, as I mention AOC (the most leftist??) votes for children concentration camp emergency funding after a tea-session with Nancy Pelosi sharing her investment portfolio tips about the companies that profit of it.

T

My point about the US Democratic Party is that it is seen as "the left" here in the US.  Many, many Americans see Warren or Bernie as far too progressive.  My point was that in most other places the US Democratic Party would be seen for what it is, a center (or maybe center right) party. If you want a marxist revolution, fine, but the point is that politics are what they are and that is why Franzen doesn't think humanity is up to the task at hand.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 11, 2019, 09:18:57 PM
When It Comes to the Future, Hope Is All There Is
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/jonathan-franzen-is-wrong-climate-change-demands-big-dreams.html
Quote
Franzen is not the first person to tell the left that its dreams are too lofty for the world. It’s a familiar enough argument, applied not just to the Green New Deal but to any left-wing bid to avert disaster in the making. Extreme wealth inequality, for example, lacks the specific timetable of ecological collapse, but it is a global problem that brings us closer to social breakdown as it worsens. There are solutions — radical ones, which would require governments to drastically reconsider their financial priorities — but the sensible classes in the U.S. and abroad dismiss them as frivolities. But rejection of the radical cures hasn’t led to bipartisan adoption of incremental policy. The notion of raising taxes on the rich to fund public services does not, in isolation, lay out the road to revolution, but that hasn’t prevented its critics from calling it an unworkable plan that would block the wealthy from creating jobs. The U.S. government hasn’t raised the federal minimum wage since 2009, but it’s taken years of organizing work for mainstream Democrats to concede that it may perhaps be time to raise it to $15 an hour. In Europe, centrists and conservatives alike sold austerity as pragmatism, and railed against welfare spending, despite clear evidence that cuts to public funding exacerbated poverty and widened inequality.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 11, 2019, 09:22:48 PM
"We need to approach zero net emissions, globally, in the next three decades."

Transl.:  We have 30 more years to dick around.

Net zero by 2050 is a joke.

I don't get either of these comments.  Getting to net zero by 2050 will be a gargantuan task.  To say THAT will be "dicking around" shows a lack of understanding for the enormity of the problem facing us.  And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

Relevant anecdote.  I got an email yesterday from a friend linking to an article entitled "We Need More Startups That Don’t Prioritize Growth Above All Else," to which I replied "we need an entire economy that prioritizes degrowth above all else!"  Her response was "Then the global economy would crash!"  I would characterize her as environmentally conscious, deeply concerned about climate and generally "woke."  Definitely more so than 90 or 95% of other Americans.  That's what we're up against and what Franzen was recognizing.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 11, 2019, 09:26:06 PM
When It Comes to the Future, Hope Is All There Is
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/jonathan-franzen-is-wrong-climate-change-demands-big-dreams.html
Quote
Franzen is not the first person to tell the left that its dreams are too lofty for the world. It’s a familiar enough argument, applied not just to the Green New Deal but to any left-wing bid to avert disaster in the making. Extreme wealth inequality, for example, lacks the specific timetable of ecological collapse, but it is a global problem that brings us closer to social breakdown as it worsens. There are solutions — radical ones, which would require governments to drastically reconsider their financial priorities — but the sensible classes in the U.S. and abroad dismiss them as frivolities. But rejection of the radical cures hasn’t led to bipartisan adoption of incremental policy. The notion of raising taxes on the rich to fund public services does not, in isolation, lay out the road to revolution, but that hasn’t prevented its critics from calling it an unworkable plan that would block the wealthy from creating jobs. The U.S. government hasn’t raised the federal minimum wage since 2009, but it’s taken years of organizing work for mainstream Democrats to concede that it may perhaps be time to raise it to $15 an hour. In Europe, centrists and conservatives alike sold austerity as pragmatism, and railed against welfare spending, despite clear evidence that cuts to public funding exacerbated poverty and widened inequality.

Gah, another critic who apparently didn't even read the friggin' thing!:

"In this respect, any movement toward a more just and civil society can now be considered a meaningful climate action. Securing fair elections is a climate action. Combatting extreme wealth inequality is a climate action. Shutting down the hate machines on social media is a climate action. Instituting humane immigration policy, advocating for racial and gender equality, promoting respect for laws and their enforcement, supporting a free and independent press, ridding the country of assault weapons—these are all meaningful climate actions. To survive rising temperatures, every system, whether of the natural world or of the human world, will need to be as strong and healthy as we can make it."
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 11, 2019, 11:47:26 PM
dnem, SBN I think means Franzen gives people the impression they have thirty more years before they need to act. A procrastination rationalization .
 And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

I find it ironic that the money the world collectively spends on weapons and wars could be rechanneled into building the green infrastructure we need . But apparently man ,in his wisdom ,would rather fund killing each other than try to save the biosphere.
So we will build the bombs and the war machine and neither mankind nor the biosphere will benefit.

SBN and ktb , Excuse in advance if I misinterpreted.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 12, 2019, 12:14:30 AM
Well, Franzen surely doesn't say we can wait 30 years to act, he says we only have 30 years to get to ZERO which is a huge task.  That would take a fat negative emissions growth rate, year after year after year.

I agree w KTB. The Paris pledges and beyond ain't worth the reams and reams of paper they're printed on.

And yes, if we all woke up tomorrow and agreed to get it done (end the war machine, for one), it is all totally possible.  Franzen simply says what he has seen of human nature makes him highly dubious we will.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on September 12, 2019, 02:15:12 AM
How Petrodollars Affect The U.S. Dollar

After the collapse of the Bretton Woods gold standard in the early 1970s, the United States struck a deal with Saudi Arabia to standardize oil prices in dollar terms. Through this deal, the petrodollar system was born, along with a paradigm shift away from pegged exchanged rates and gold-backed currencies to non-backed, floating rate regimes.


The petrodollar system elevated the U.S. dollar to the world's reserve currency and, through this status, the United States enjoys persistent trade deficits and is a global economic hegemony. The petrodollar system also provides the United States’ financial markets with a source of liquidity and foreign capital inflows through petrodollar "recycling." However, an explanation of the effects of petrodollars on the U.S. dollar requires a brief synopsis of the history of the petrodollar.

History of the Petrodollar
Faced with mounting inflation, debt from the Vietnam War, extravagant domestic spending habits and a persistent balance of payments deficit, the Nixon administration decided to suddenly (and shockingly) end the convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. In the wake of this “Nixon Shock,” the world saw the end of the gold era and a free fall of the U.S. dollar amidst soaring inflation. According to, Dr. Bessma Moomani in the article, " GCC Oil Exporters and the Future of the Dollar," through a series of carefully crafted bilateral agreements with Saudi Arabia beginning in 1974, the U.S. was able to promote bilateral political and commercial relations, market imported U.S. goods and services, and help recycle Saudi petrodollars

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/072915/how-petrodollars-affect-us-dollar.asp

Both Saddam Hussein and Gaddafi did propose that oil be traded in alternative currencies.

The US Dollar and oil are inextricably linked.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: ShortBrutishNasty on September 12, 2019, 04:45:21 AM
@Bruce Steele:  No probs with your reading comprehension.  Thanks for being there. @ktp.  You, too.

For a long time, insidious Denial of Urgency articles ALWAYS had an expectation/statistic/measurement for the year 2100.

What year did Franzen use?  Huh?  What's his timetable?  When should we start to get concerned and panic??  When is our house really on fire??  (Hat tip Greta T.)



Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 12, 2019, 05:29:37 AM
<snip>
"In this respect, any movement toward a more just and civil society can now be considered a meaningful climate action. Securing fair elections is a climate action. Combatting extreme wealth inequality is a climate action. Shutting down the hate machines on social media is a climate action. Instituting humane immigration policy, advocating for racial and gender equality, promoting respect for laws and their enforcement, supporting a free and independent press, ridding the country of assault weapons—these are all meaningful climate actions. To survive rising temperatures, every system, whether of the natural world or of the human world, will need to be as strong and healthy as we can make it."

Great! Having high morality and acting upon it (ethics) is meaningful climate action  :D.

High morality such as taking other people into account; treat everyone with respect; be kind; have a very low carbon footprint; don't give in to temptation (buying stuff and candy, making everything easy on yourself); do not hurry; don't be rich; ride bicycle; share; pay compliments; don't care about 'status' etc.
Why aren't people doing that? What's the problem?
 ::)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Ktb on September 12, 2019, 06:06:10 AM
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on September 12, 2019, 12:35:52 PM
I find specially easy to join Bruce opinions, maybe because I have been sailor, fisherman and farmer. Producing or procuring your own food is not that easy. Near where I live now there are some traditional families (with no children) living from ~20, ~25 caws who live on the mountains. The youngest is 58. They walk 5-20Km a day with hundreds of meters of unevenness,  just to start working.
I started worrying about the environment when I saw how industrial fishing totally deployed the Gulf of Cádiz from its wonderful biodiversity. Many years ago, before we saw the CO2 problem.
In this discussion the problem of overpopulation is undervalued. But it might be popping out as that "amoral" desire of having a quick Big Crash. I think that most of us considers population a problem. Some have stated that our farming only started after growing too much to keep being hunters/gathers.
We can not "morally" accept a cull on humans but our intuition is telling us that it's becoming a must. And that's why is not rare to will for a 'natural' wipe out.
That strange collective property of our minds, something emerging from the human's super organism is not identified by individuals but moves them to unconsciously create a state of war. Another intuitive possible outcome of our overuse of energy and resources.(obviously this is bs speculation, but the grass I was given in advance was terrific)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 12, 2019, 01:08:05 PM

What year did Franzen use?  Huh?  What's his timetable?  When should we start to get concerned and panic??  When is our house really on fire??  (Hat tip Greta T.)

40 years ago? Did you READ it?  Geez, he's being pilloried all over the internet for saying that there is no level of panic deep enough or soon enough to address our overlapping crises and you want more?  What the heck?  It is one of the most widely circulated and discussed essays on the impossibly dire straits that humanity is in.  That's why I posted it and why I was interested in starting a discussion about it here.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Archimid on September 12, 2019, 01:28:04 PM
Work expands to fill the time available for its completion. Parkinson’s Law.

If we want to solve climate change by 2100, then work will expand to meet that deadline.
The same for 2050 or 2030.

There is of course a minimum time where it is theoretically possible to solve climate change. Our goals should be as close as possible to the minimum time.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2019, 03:47:46 PM
And KTB, are you saying it's a joke because we won't get there or because that isn't fast enough, or what?

And ktb implies that the governments that agree to zero by 2050 are pulling our leg, jerking us around, or maliciously baiting the public with promises they never will keep.

Mostly that net zero by 2050 is decades too late. And even if it was not too late, we probably will not achieve that goal anyway.

Does not matter that it is too late. We still absolutely need to do this.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 12, 2019, 03:49:33 PM
I find specially easy to join Bruce opinions, maybe because I have been sailor, fisherman and farmer..

Sounds like an interesting life outside :).
Quote
Some have stated that our farming only started after growing too much to keep being hunters/gathers.

I don't think so, seeing all indiginous tribes prospering since our agricutural beginning, until they met civilisation.

Quote
We can not "morally" accept a cull on humans but our intuition is telling us that it's becoming a must. And that's why is not rare to will for a 'natural' wipe out.

I don't understand. I have no such intuition. A cull? Did you really mean to write that?
There's a cull planned in the U.K. for 10000's badgers. A wet dream for hunters. Most hunters are humans, a prey animal, pretending to be predators by using technology. Pushing buttons. Sorry for the off-topic part.

Quote
That strange collective property of our minds, something emerging from the human's super organism

In my opinion those ideas don't describe reality.


edit: added badger cull text
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 12, 2019, 04:55:50 PM
predators can be prey. I saw a picture of an eagle eating a mongoose.
And just because we don't use fangs and claws to kill our prey does not mean we are not predators.
In fact, we are probably too much of a predator.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 12, 2019, 06:00:03 PM
Look at our teeth and molars. We are not predators. Our eyes are in the front because we needed to catch the branch after leaping.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 12, 2019, 06:10:53 PM
Are spiders predators? They don’t have canine teeth. We use utensils to cut food and cooking to soften it
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Aporia_filia on September 13, 2019, 11:29:05 AM
Nanning, about the origins of agriculture this has been posted more than once:

Re: Is Man the "Unnatural Animal?"
« Reply #259 on: September 05, 2019, 02:29:25 PM »
Quote
This is an interesting study posted in the forum long ago.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160802104526.htm
"University of Utah anthropologists counted the number of carbon-dated artifacts at archaeological sites and concluded that a population boom and scarce food explain why people in eastern North America domesticated plants for the first time on the continent about 5,000 years ago."

And Tom is right, we don't have very good teeth because we process our food, but humans are the most feared animals (there is at least one study I can't find now)) and without any doubt, we are the biggest murder  https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/animal-emotions/201702/murder-she-didnt-write-why-can-only-humans-be-murdered&ved=2ahUKEwiAzP6du83kAhXQzYUKHctoDHoQFjAAegQIARAB&usg=AOvVaw2s8QNY_77ot_wxfNYBs858

About the cull. The word is used on porpoise because we do it sooo easily against animals as if they had not the same right to live as we do.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 02:21:02 PM
I read somewhere that humans are second most murderous animals.
Meerkats came in first.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on September 13, 2019, 05:16:37 PM
So that is why one of them is always on the lookout.  :o

Bet we win in absolute numbers.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 13, 2019, 06:39:03 PM
A true predator would want to kill it's own food.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 13, 2019, 09:56:48 PM
The controversy over Jonathan Franzen’s climate change opinions, explained
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/11/20857956/jonathan-franzen-climate-change-new-yorker
Quote
His apocalyptic rhetoric starts to sound like it’s sliding into a breed of denialism (or “de-nihilism,” as Mary Annaïse Heglar of the Natural Resources Defense Council dubbed it): the denial that there’s any sense in focusing on the fight for a better climate.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: dnem on September 14, 2019, 01:43:38 PM
The essay has become an interesting litmus test. Personally, I think he will be proved right and it won't be because his little essay in an elite literature magazine made people give up when they would have won if only they had kept fighting. Also, whether intentional or not, Franzen has provoked a wide debate on the likely trajectory of climate change, and the best responses to it.  That can only be a good thing.

For me, the most salient point he makes is that fighting the good fight is a moral imperative, regardless of whether we are likely to win or lose.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 15, 2019, 05:40:19 PM
- Why has there been no success in eliminating tax havens?
- Why is the Keeling curve accelerating since the 2015 Paris accord?
- Why are there still massive subsidies given to fossil fuel related corporations?
(I could make this list much longer)

Please think about what these questions tell us about our leadership?
(hint: There's no meaningful effort at all, just make-belief and BAU)

Is really nothing big going to change? (Apart from the elimination of ecosystems and all other lifeforms, and receiving increasingly catastrophic weather)
How long is this going to go on?
In this way you are assured of collapse, almost working towards it in the most effective way.

I'd say supporting the current systems is very very stupid in this regard.
Very stupid to acquiesce with this destructive insane system that is responsible, and work towards your own lifestyle's quick end.

Please stop your bad behaviour. Please don't give in to ease, perceived 'comfort' and temptation; it is not the 'good life' you are sold, it is a destructive and by MSM/advertising conditioned 'dream'.
Why have a career? Just have a good and full and, yes, more difficult life. You'll get richer!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Ktb on September 16, 2019, 03:03:23 AM
Here is why we will never reduce CO2 in time: I present the prisoner's dilemma. A classic game.

We have a multi person prisoner's dilemma in which any individual is pitted against the entire rest of the world. This prisoner's dilemma would hold true for the vast majority of people, i.e. if you replaced individual A with individual B from the "everybody else" section, this would still be true.

We look at the individual's preference ranking.

1st choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. CO2 still reduced enough by rest of the world to avoid major consequences of CC.

2nd choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else also decreases enough to avoid major consequences of CC.

3rd choice - Individual makes no, or minimal lifestyle changes. Individual does not attempt to reduce CO2 output. Individual makes no significant sacrifices. The rest of the world also does not reduce CO2 output. Climate change has severe and widespread impacts.

4th choice - Individual makes lifestyle changes to reduce CO2. Some lifestyle changes may cause discomfort. CO2 production by everybody else does not decrease by enough to avoid major consequences of climate change. Individual feels that he/she was played for a fool, made sacrifices for no reason.

Unfortunately, the dominant strategy here is for the individual to make no lifestyle changes. And indeed, we see that playing out with the vast majority of the general populace.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 16, 2019, 05:30:02 PM
Facing a possible Climate Apocalypse: How should we live? (commentary)
https://news.mongabay.com/2019/09/facing-a-possible-climate-apocalypse-how-should-we-live-commentary/
Quote
We live today under threat of Climate Apocalypse. But two world wars, genocides, the Bomb and untold suffering around the globe reported daily have all perhaps dulled our senses and our resolve; resulted in elders – especially our leaders – failing to face humanity’s ultimate existential crisis.
More than 30 years after the Climate Emergency was publicly declared by climatologist James Hansen, disasters multiply – record heat, drought, deluge, rising seas. But climate change deniers hold sway in the U.S. and abroad, with almost no nations on Earth on target to achieve their deeply inadequate Paris Agreement goals.
Now an even higher imperative has emerged, as new studies point not just to escalating risk, but toward potential doom. Understandingly, young people are angry and openly rebelling against their elders. The young point to a failure to act, and declare: there is no time for politics and business as usual. They’re right.
Humanity’s only way out – the path to saving civilization, and much of life on Earth – is to act as though our lives, and our children’s lives, depend on it. Because they do. And one more thing: we mustn’t give up hope. This post is a commentary. Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily Mongabay.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 18, 2019, 05:10:20 PM
There's a likely scenario where, after collapse of large infrastructure and/or food problems, the military and criminal organisations take over the country.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 19, 2019, 12:22:22 AM
There's a likely scenario where, after collapse of large infrastructure and/or food problems, the military and criminal organisations take over the country.
Take over from who?


Sounds more like an intramural scrimmage than an actual battle.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 19, 2019, 06:11:21 AM
Well, I was thinking that when the government has no working communication systems anymore, the military may step in to enforce 'order', food distribution and other logistics, using their own communication systems. To protect the rich people and shops/companies. Maybe I'm wrong in this and we will all start sharing food and energy and be nice to each other.

Criminal organisations may see their chance clear because they have weapons and a clear organisation in a country where the public don't have weapons. I don't know whether or not they'll still be able to communicate electronically. Probably not, but I think most criminals organisations are more concentrated, more local. ICE's will still have some fuel left.

I don't know which one is the worst to fear.
Battle may not be necessary to enforce 'order'/chaos. It may be wise to leave the country if possible.

In the U.S. where powerful weapons are everywhere, I expect more than a little battle.


P.S.  Terry, congratulations on becoming First-year ice. A select group :)
Thanks for all your well-informed opinions and clarity of view.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 20, 2019, 02:13:09 AM
Well, I was thinking that when the government has no working communication systems anymore, the military may step in to enforce 'order', food distribution and other logistics, using their own communication systems. To protect the rich people and shops/companies. Maybe I'm wrong in this and we will all start sharing food and energy and be nice to each other.

Criminal organisations may see their chance clear because they have weapons and a clear organisation in a country where the public don't have weapons. I don't know whether or not they'll still be able to communicate electronically. Probably not, but I think most criminals organisations are more concentrated, more local. ICE's will still have some fuel left.

I don't know which one is the worst to fear.
Battle may not be necessary to enforce 'order'/chaos. It may be wise to leave the country if possible.

In the U.S. where powerful weapons are everywhere, I expect more than a little battle.


P.S.  Terry, congratulations on becoming First-year ice. A select group :)
Thanks for all your well-informed opinions and clarity of view.
Thanks nanning - I had no idea I was approaching such a milestone of verbosity. :D


My comment was meant to indicate that there might not be too much difference between the coming "military and criminal organizations" and the militarized cops protecting the criminalized politicians that are our present overlords. :(


It gets ever more difficult to tell the good guys from the baddies.
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: wili on September 20, 2019, 02:32:19 AM
"milestone of verbosity"

Terry, it's not just quantity...as you prove here, you, like our fearless leader, have the best words! :)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 21, 2019, 01:18:04 AM
How to talk to children and teens about their fears surrounding climate change
https://www.today.com/parents/how-talk-children-about-climate-change-t162981
Quote
Adults aren’t the only ones feeling anxiety over climate change.

Americans are worried as ever about climate change, separate Gallup polls reveal. However, climate grief and climate anxiety extends to children, Dr. Sudeepta Varma, a board-certified psychiatrist and clinical assistant professor of psychiatry at the NYU Langone Medical Center, told TODAY as part of NBC's series "Climate in Crisis."

"Teens are saying they're more worried about their climate anxiety than their homework," she said. So how can parents help relieve that stress? Here are four tips:
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: TerryM on September 23, 2019, 01:46:08 PM
Thanks Wili :-[
Terry
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on September 29, 2019, 06:50:01 AM
The Rich people's behaviour:
When the hungry and thirsty arrive, you don't share but use guns to kill them.

---

  Sustainability expert Michael Mobbs: I’m leaving the city to prep for the apocalypse
 by Janine Israel

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/29/sustainability-expert-michael-mobbs-im-leaving-the-city-to-prep-for-the-apocalypse

  Quotes:

The 69-year-old former environmental lawyer who, in 1996, converted his two-storey 19th century Sydney terrace into one of the world’s first inner-city self-sufficient homes, is selling his famous passion project and moving to a remote coastal location to prepare for what he predicts will be impending societal collapse induced by climate change.

That is, he says, a total breakdown within the next three to five years.

“My guess is water, energy, food, the seasons and economies will collapse in the next three to five years,” he says. “Am I certain of these things? No. But like someone diagnosed with a cancer expected to kill me in the next five years, I am now preparing for my personal circumstances over the next few years. The star I steer by is an article by Catherine Ingram, Facing Extinction.”

“I want to get away from the major cities because I think they’ll become unsafe. You look at what happens in places that get cyclones or tornadoes; when the food runs out and it’s hard to get power and water, civil unrest happens in about two or three days,” he says.

“People die without food and water in a week, and if there are a lot of people dying or at risk of dying, their behaviour will become uncontrollable.”

Still, he believes those in the city who are more self-sufficient, including the future occupants of this house, will have an advantage. “[But desperate people] will come here for the water and the energy,” he says, adding drily: “Maybe I should sell it with guns.

He said ‘I’m moving out of my Melbourne house and back to Bermagui.’ He said ‘Come to Bermagui. It’s got two wooden bridges which could be burned down should the town need defending.’ I thought, ‘This is my man!’”

The latest worst-case scenario projection from WaterNSW is that Warragamba Dam – Sydney’s primary water supply – will stop flowing by January 2022.


edit: bolded parts
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: gerontocrat on September 29, 2019, 07:16:20 PM

Sustainability expert Michael Mobbs: I’m leaving the city to prep for the apocalypse[/size]


The guy has been prepping for collapse for over twenty years in the city.
He has abandoned hope for the city and moving out.

In fact he has abandoned hope for the survival of the modern Nation State, which is Urban-centred.

I always thought  prepping for collapse just meant practical steps for the survival of oneself, one's family, and if you're lucky a group of like-minded individuals, and not endless discussions (which is why I abandoned this thread).


Attached: A relic of man's presence on the planet?
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Alexander555 on September 29, 2019, 08:00:41 PM
If you are interested in guns. The Germans still manufacture nice pieces. They cost a little more, but very accurate.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: vox_mundi on October 01, 2019, 05:45:21 PM
New Zealand: Lifeboat to Save Humanity from Extinction in a Catastrophic Pandemic, Researchers Say
https://phys.org/news/2019-10-zealand-lifeboat-humanity-extinction-catastrophic.html

New Zealand, Australia and Iceland could act as island refuges to save humanity from extinction in the event of a catastrophic global pandemic, researchers have found.

The researchers, from the University of Otago, Wellington and Adapt Research, have ranked 20 island nations which could act as refuges from which large-scale technological society could be rebuilt. From this process, New Zealand came out second best.

Their work has just been published as a research paper in the international journal Risk Analysis.

Quote
... "Discoveries in biotechnology could see a genetically-engineered pandemic threaten the survival of our species. Though carriers of disease can easily circumvent land borders, a closed self-sufficient island could harbor an isolated, technologically-adept population that could repopulate the earth following a disaster." ... "It's like an insurance policy. You hope that you never need to use it, but if disaster strikes, then the strategy needs to have been in place ahead of time."

The researchers ranked island nations with populations of more than 250,000 as possible refuges, considering that the larger the population, the more likely it was that the refuge would ultimately be able to reboot global civilization.

The researchers say that for such a strategy to succeed, preparations must be made ahead of time. They suggest that New Zealand consider investing in resiliency measures and rehearse the rapid introduction of border controls.

Matt Boyd et al. The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics (https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/risa.13398), Risk Analysis (2019)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fbigwnews.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F10%2Fccelebritiesfoto0_PAY-WastelandWeekend-TodSeelie-27.jpg&hash=f5fbfbf4f3c36809f658eec6958e00e4)

https://www.wastelandweekend.com/
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: nanning on October 01, 2019, 05:55:32 PM
Thanks vox.

New Zealand: Lifeboat to Save Humanity from Extinction in a Catastrophic Pandemic, Researchers Say
<snip>
They suggest that New Zealand consider investing in resiliency measures and rehearse the rapid introduction of border controls.

A lifeboat with very high sides. Only for helicopter people.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on October 01, 2019, 06:46:41 PM
And for a not very realistic scenario. It´s not like we ever got close to that in any pandemic.

With the Black Death you see interesting shifts in society (labor becomes more scarce so people earn more and lots of ´male jobs´ were done by women until there were enough men to push them out again) but there is no collapse.

All the extinction events were planet wide calamities so there is no island lifeboat.

There is just one planet lifeboat.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 03, 2019, 10:29:20 PM
I posted a thread on this, but in case you ignored it it would also fit here.
If you expect a collapse, but for a fragment of humanity to survive, donate a test to the Memory of Mankind:
https://www.memory-of-mankind.com/
Quote
The most durable data carriers (in the form of ceramic tablets), stored deep in the oldest salt mine in the world will carry our stories hundreds of thousand of years into the future.

Everyone can participate within drawing this portrait of our era: You can contribute a personal story, your favorite poem, or newspaper articles which describe our problems, visions or our daily life.

To give everyone on the globe the chance (regardless of origin or income) to contribute to MOM, the storing of texts in this archive is free of charge.

You can also support MOM with funds or purchase your personal tablet with texts and images combined (and receive a duplicate which you can pass on to your own offspring!)
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Human Habitat Index on October 04, 2019, 02:01:30 AM
And for a not very realistic scenario. It´s not like we ever got close to that in any pandemic.

With the Black Death you see interesting shifts in society (labor becomes more scarce so people earn more and lots of ´male jobs´ were done by women until there were enough men to push them out again) but there is no collapse.

All the extinction events were planet wide calamities so there is no island lifeboat.

There is just one planet lifeboat.

Was the Black Death caused by climate change induced famine ?

"Now, new research using a unique combination of ice-core data and written historical records indicates that the cool, wet weather blamed for the northern European famine actually affected a much wider area over a much longer period. The work, which researchers say is preliminary, paints a picture of a deep, prolonged food shortage in the years leading to the Black Death.

“The evidence indicates that the famine was a broader phenomenon, geographically and chronologically,” said Alexander More, a postdoctoral fellow in the Harvard History Department and a lecturer in the History of Science Department.

A widespread famine that weakened the population over decades could help explain the Black Death’s particularly high mortality. Over four or five years after arriving in Europe in 1347, the pandemic surged through the continent in waves that killed millions.

The ice-core data is part of a unique program linking traditional historical research with scientific data-collecting techniques. The program, called the Initiative for the Science of the Human Past at Harvard (SoHP), is headed by Michael McCormick, the Francis Goelet Professor of Medieval History. SoHP’s ice-core project is being conducted in collaboration with the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute and researchers at Heidelberg University. The project’s approach puts it at the juncture of environmental science, archaeology, and history. It is supported by the Arcadia Fund of London."

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2016/01/did-famine-worsen-the-black-death/

Climate change, not Global Warming caused the Black Death (bubonic plague) that killed an estimated 75 million people, or 1/3 of the Western Christian Civilization in Europe.
A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in January of 2008 details the research of Anthropologists Sharon N. DeWitte and James W. Wood.
They examined the human remains of a Black Death cemetery in London and compared them with remains from cemeteries in Denmark, where the Black Death did not affect the local population.
The results were this:

Black Death killed more people who were starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease then it did well fed and healthy persons.
Why were they starved of essential nutrients and already suffering from disease?
Because the Medieval Warming Period, which ended around the year 1300, enabled abundant crops over much of Europe for hundreds of years. This continual abundance of food then created a population boom. The milder winters and longer growing seasons resulted in smaller amounts of environmental stress on the European peoples. As a result, by the year 1300 most of Europe’s people’s were well fed and generally healthy.


Then came the Great Famine of 1315–1322, the direct result of the cooling of the European climate, usually called the Little Ice Age. It started with three years of torrential rains beginning in 1315.The bad weather of the spring of 1315 resulted in crop failures over most of Europe and lasted until the summer of 1317.The unstable weather lasted in Europe until the 19th century and was characterized by severe winters and no or very short growing seasons.

When did the Black Death ravage Europe? From the years 1347 to 1351.

It doesn’t take a college degree to figure the natural chain of events caused by the Climate Change of 1300 to 1322.

The so called “Global Warming” of the Medieval Warming Period sparked the greatest boom in prosperity and health of the last 1,000 years in Europe. The climate change resulting in the Little Ice Age caused massive death and misery.

When people of the first half of the 1300's became starved, their immunity to common infections dropped, that combined with improper sanitation,lack of clean water and environmental stress set the stage for the Black Death.

https://earthsciencesus.blogspot.com/2008/01/black-death-and-climate-change.html
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on October 06, 2019, 04:10:01 PM
I think one way people could get around the military problem could be to go out to sea. If one can take their sustainable environment and put it on a boat, they won't have to worry about being attacked. After all, if the ship sinks, no-one gets the resources. Why would anyone want to sail over megametres of ocean just to get nothing? As long as Noah's Ark can sustain about 3x as many people as it starts out with (remember that your population will grow over time!) and can outlast land-based militaries, it will eventually be able to land in an uninhabited area and establish a beachhead colony.

Water isn't a problem, the ship can just boil and distil the sea.

Power isn't a problem, the ship has wind and solar.

Food can be grown as long as it's protected from the salt.

Typhoons (and other extreme weather) can be dodged by physically moving the ship out of the way!

The only real problem is that building the ship will be a huge undertaking, and will only be able to sustain so many people, so this is really only an option for the rich. Still less ridiculous than building something on Mars, though!
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Wherestheice on July 29, 2020, 05:48:21 AM
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Neven on July 29, 2020, 10:31:26 AM
I'd say chances are already 25% right now if COVID-19 continues to get hyped the way it has been so far. And it probably will, as Trump is still in the WH.
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: The Walrus on July 29, 2020, 04:23:46 PM
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse

That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

That paper claiming the demise of the forests also states that the rate of deforestation has declined.  Another paper using satellite imagery has shown that forested area has actually grown over 35 years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: glennbuck on July 31, 2020, 10:51:43 PM
Over the past year more scientists have spoken candidly about the implications for humanity of recent climate observations and research. They have begun to warn more clearly of the potential and even likelihood of societal collapse due to the direct and indirect impacts of dangerous climate change. These warnings are being lost in the winds of news cycles and drowned out by scientists who prefer assessments that are less challenging to humanity and our elites. Therefore, in one place, here are some of the latest interpretations of the science from scientists who do not hold back.

Dr. Graham Turner was formerly a senior scientist with an Australian federal government agency responsible for scientific research (CSIRO). He told Asher that: “There’s an extremely strong case that we may be in the early stages of a collapse right at the moment. Vested interests and corrupt politicians combined with a population happy to deny problems overwhelm those that are trying to promulgate truth and facts.” Dr. Anitra Nelson, a principal fellow at the University of Melbourne concurred: “I do actually think we’re already into the collapse and it’s just likely to get worse and more quickly worse as we go.”

https://jembendell.com/2020/06/15/climate-science-and-collapse-warnings-lost-in-the-wind/#more-1963

https://jembendell.com/2019/07/31/climate-scientist-speaks-about-letting-down-humanity-and-what-to-do-about-it/
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: interstitial on July 31, 2020, 11:51:07 PM
Not sure if anyone has read this article, or the one by vice, or even the study that these articles refer too, but thought this should be shared

TDLR: Scientists give us a 90% chance of collapsing in the next 2-4 decades..

https://futurism.com/the-byte/physicists-90-percent-chance-civilization-collapse

That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

That paper claiming the demise of the forests also states that the rate of deforestation has declined.  Another paper using satellite imagery has shown that forested area has actually grown over 35 years.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14967?proof=true

Misrepresenting the facts as always. The article says that the number of living trees has fallen by 46%. Your statement implies otherwise. 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 01, 2020, 12:35:48 AM
Glenbuck, Deep adaptation. Really can’t have a foot in two worlds IMO. If it’s over we are just talking something like trying to judge market tops and bottoms if we are waiting for the perfect moment to disengage.
 
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 01, 2020, 01:23:44 AM
Quote
That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.
logic error.
non sequitur.
Ecological collapse is not the same thing as cutting down trees.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-climate-change-and-deforestation-spark-amazon-dieback
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Cox-et-al-2004-Fig6-Amazon-dieback.png)


Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: The Walrus on August 01, 2020, 02:58:14 PM
Quote
That paper pins global collapse to the loss of global forests, which they claim will occur between 100 and 200 years.  Yet, over the entire course of human civilization, scientists have estimated that less than 50% of the trees have been cut down.
logic error.
non sequitur.
Ecological collapse is not the same thing as cutting down trees.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-could-climate-change-and-deforestation-spark-amazon-dieback
(https://www.carbonbrief.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Cox-et-al-2004-Fig6-Amazon-dieback.png)

Read further.  The authors state that “recent research hints that the Amazon forest may be more resilient to climate change.”  “It not seems that climate change is unlikely to be as damaging as we originally feared, and “most models show increasing forest cover due to CO2 fertilisation.”
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 01, 2020, 04:50:09 PM
Bullshit cherry picking yet again .

Quote
The Amazon rainforest sustains its own climate by recycling water to the atmosphere, which maintains rainfall and reduces the length of dry seasons. Deforestation undermines those regulatory mechanisms and may, ultimately, lead to a tipping point.

This, in combination with the dry season becoming long enough to permit regular natural fires, could see the forest transition to a permanent savannah. This would be characterised by a mixed tree and grassland system with an open canopy that allows the soil to become much hotter and drier, as well as store much less carbon.

Therefore, the twin pressures of deforestation and climate change on the Amazon rainforest remain a great concern. We are unlikely to know the vulnerability of the rainforest to climate change with any confidence until it is too late. However, we are sure that human-caused deforestation reduces the resilience of the forest to climate change and other stressors.

Many had thought the problem of Amazonian deforestation was on the path to being solved. The rate of deforestation dropped from a peak in 2004 of 28,000 square kilometres (km2) – equivalent to removing an area of forest almost the size of Belgium each year – to less than a fifth of that rate by 2014.

But that is all in the past now. With deforestation on the up and global warming continuing, there are, once again, multiple threats to the longevity of the Amazon rainforest.

In NZ there was once extensive forest cover on the east-coast of the south island '.
Early Maori  hunting the Moa burnt it  circa 1.200 to 1.400 CE.
now?
Repeated burning and resulting loss of tree cover changed the climate so much it has never recovered and the land is now  Tussock grassland .
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: kassy on August 01, 2020, 05:00:50 PM
Well resilience against climate change is not going to help the Amazon if they keep converting it to soy farms and building roads. But since i like good news do share some details from the paper.

And it not just about cutting forests. The temperature range keeps shifting which means a lot of forests will get into trouble.

The canopy counting alone is problematic because it does not differentiate between forests. The loss of old growth forests has an oversized influence on carbon loss and then there is the much less visible loss of all varieties of life. 

Counting methods have been updated since 2015 and quite a bit more happened after that so one could ask how relevant these papers are since they are both from 2015.

Then again getting forest measurements is not the most important thing for those prepping for collapse (just mentioning that since it is the thread title  ;) ).
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 01, 2020, 05:14:25 PM
It is another point on the time line toward collapse and also a feedback when all that carbon in mature rain forest gets released.
I find one somewhat nearer according to the IPCC more concerning. The loss of coral reefs and resulting loss  of commercial fish species that are dependent on them for part of their life cycles.

Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: The Walrus on August 01, 2020, 05:39:50 PM
see 2 posts up

Yes, their conclusion was that clear cutting the forest would do more harm than could be compensated naturally.  <In the future you will need to back up these claims with actual quotes from the articles, TIA! kassy>

I know Kiwi calls this cherry picking bullshit, but that is the conclusions they reached.  It is not often that researchers retract previous statements, so I applaud the authors for doing so.

<But did they? And if they had why not provide a quote for extra glee? kassy>
Title: Re: Prepping for Collapse
Post by: glennbuck on August 02, 2020, 07:11:06 PM
Living in the Time of Dying

Living in the Time of Dying Documentary 53:51

If we accepted the climate science was true, how would we choose to live and what would matter to us? This is my journey exploring these topics.  Interviews with: Author of " Deep Adaptation" Professor Jem Bendell, Dharma teacher and author of "Facing Extinction "Catherine Ingram, journalist and author of "The End of Ice" Dhar Jamail and Elder, teacher , author and Citizen of the Chiricuhua Apache Nation, Stan Rushworth.

https://www.livinginthetimeofdying.com/documentary?fbclid=IwAR3TUozlFJOaH4F0--R6Wixm_Bcuzxe-c7zCLKoEhjX6oyAwxNEBBl0i3oo