Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Permafrost => Topic started by: bbr2314 on August 13, 2019, 11:15:21 PM

Title: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 13, 2019, 11:15:21 PM
THE THREAD HATH BEGUN!

Here are temp anomalies the last 12 months to kick things off.

I suspect we will see a worsening relative to 2018-19 as we head into 2019-20 due to the +accumulation of OHC in the Arctic / elsewhere this summer, as well as due to this year's acceleration in Greenland's melt relative to last year.

Current forecasts show falls occurring across much of the NW Rockies.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019081312/gfs_asnow_namer_65.png)

I believe today's 12z CMC is the first run where falls reach into the Lower 48 INSIDE the D10 period.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019081312/gem_asnow_namer_40.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 24, 2019, 07:29:54 AM
Il neige! Il neige beaucoup!

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082400/gem_asnow_us_40.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on August 24, 2019, 10:32:06 AM
OMG a total white-out on august 24th.  :o ;D

JK but this does not look like beaucoup to me but that might be because i have no idea what the actual neige baseline is for the time of the year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 26, 2019, 02:42:02 AM
Here are the four months centered on 2019's peak solar.

The only blue spots are derivative of persistent relatively low-latitude sea ice or snowcover (or both).

The question is, as we head into 2020, do the blues turn bluer and the reds turn warmer, or does everything turn warmer? I think it will be the former, although this reaction has definitely see-saw'd since we first saw it unfold after 2012.

I think that 2019's extant sea ice in Hudson Bay, the first instance since 2009 in spite of an XX% in GHGs since then, is confirmation that these negative feedbacks may locally overwhelm generalized warming (and perhaps in such a way that at a certain point the warming is simply fuel for a worsening reaction in the opposite direction that lasts for multiple years).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 26, 2019, 03:00:05 AM
Since January 1st, max temps have been running -4C (-7Fish) across the triangle of coldness between the Lakes and Hudson Bay and the Rockies. That is pretty incredible. I would bet the anomaly deepens further by 2019's end.

(https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/YearTMAXDeptUS.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on August 27, 2019, 01:26:04 AM
AC's still cranked up tight here between the lakes.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 27, 2019, 01:35:35 AM
In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 27, 2019, 01:48:17 AM
Year by year comparison of Great Lakes surface temps for the date --

https://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/compare_years/compare_years_o.html

Full volume temps vs 2018 / vs 2017

Superior: -.1F / -.5F
Michigan: -1.0F / -2.6F
Huron: -.7F / -1.5F
Erie: -1.0F / -1.2F
Ontario: -.8F / -2.1F

Surface temps vs. 2018 / 17

Superior: -3.2F / -1.0F
Michigan: -1.2F / +1.4F
Huron: -1.8F / +.7F
Erie: -.7F / +.3F
Ontario: -2.2F / +2.1F

Volume-wise, we are much colder than recent years across the board. The surface of some lakes is a bit warmer than 2017 but I think the whole volume metrics are more relevant to what happens in autumn and how quickly we see freeze-up come winter.

The differentials in Michigan and Erie would possibly indicate that Erie will freeze up earlier than usual, and that Michigan could freeze-up much more completely than usual. Just something to keep an eye on as we head into winter.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on August 27, 2019, 03:47:53 AM
In Michigan, we turned off the AC a week ago.
You southerners have everything so easy.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2019, 01:38:42 PM
The Glaciation of North America ?

It has snowed! Glaciation starts !

Hang on, the glaciation has moved from Quebec to the Northern Rockies and Alaska's North Slope.

Hang on again. A lot of the snow has melted.

click gif to start

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 29, 2019, 07:00:44 AM
The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

00z CMC shows first real snow in Quebec by D5-6.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082900/gem_asnow_namer_37.png)

GFS has been showing similar things every run or two. Looks like we should see coverage pick up by early September which could yield a very cold autumn for certain regions (the triangle of coldness in particular IMO).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 29, 2019, 07:03:50 AM
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082900/gem_T2ma_namer_39.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082900/gem_T2m_namer_39.png)

The GFS is not too different.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019082900/gfs_T2ma_namer_41.png)

Looks like consensus for the first legitimately cold outbreak of the season with frosts, freeze, and mountain snows could be building for 9/7-9/12.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 30, 2019, 01:23:28 AM
The Canuck maps show snow persisted atop the Torngats. Anyways.

As it needs to do each year if the remaining 100 or so small glaciers are to survive.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 30, 2019, 01:29:33 AM
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082900/gem_T2m_namer_39.png)


Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on August 30, 2019, 05:09:54 AM
The 00z CMC is preparing for most of the Upper Midwest's first frost / freeze by D10. Wow.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019082900/gem_T2m_namer_39.png)


Looking at this image, I see a tiny sliver of western N.D. below freezing. Did you mistype "most of the Upper Midwest's first frost?
It gets colder in subsequent frames and frosts also occur under 36F not 32F
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 01, 2019, 06:30:48 AM
Dorian could be first major blizzard of season for Quebec, would be very early

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090100/gfs_asnow_secan_31.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 08, 2019, 04:28:57 AM
Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

The next week++ looks to include more momentum in Siberia than North America, with major totals now appearing across very wide areas of northern Russia.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090718/gfs_asnow_asia_65.png)

I am not sure I agree with the temporary departure of most of the cold air over northeastern North America, but there is consistency in the modeling that Siberia is going to get colder than normal, and fairly snow-covered, by September 20th(ish). At the very least, the CCIN charts should start to move more substantially.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2019090718/gfs-ens_T2maMean_nhem_12.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 08, 2019, 12:33:04 PM
From Environment Canada https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

EURASIA
The snow graphs for Eurasia include the Himalayas. This makes them pretty useless for comments about the Arctic. As you can see from the first attachment the 2018-19 snowfall is still lying there in significant quantities while snow in the Eurasian Arctic is minimal.

North America
There have been 2 significant dumps of snow since Aug 1, but most has melted. The islands of the CAA are getting some snow as can be seen from the gif. (Click to start)

Next post has a couple of seasonal weather predictions.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 08, 2019, 12:46:46 PM
Seasonal Weather Forecasts.

CANADA - September October & November

High confidence for above average temperatures, especially in the far north.
This very high confidence is noteworthy

Low confidence for any variation in precipitation from the average.

RUSSIA - Oct- to Dec

Average temperatures in Central and Eastern Siberia,
Below Average temperatures in Western Siberia,
Cold in lower latitudes.

Low confidence of below average precipitation along much of coastal Siberia.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 09, 2019, 02:19:22 PM
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090906/gfs_asnow_eu_41.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 09, 2019, 06:54:37 PM
Dorian was not a major blizzard, however, modeling did keep totals in elevated splotches down to New Brunswick, so I would imagine many of the highest locations in Quebec / surrounds have seen an inch or four.

RAIN !!

No snow. Too much warmth left in the system?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 09, 2019, 06:56:18 PM
There was definitely snow, it may not have stuck that well, but there could also have been cloud interference with the maps (IDK). It snowed in Caribou, but I can't find any news stories (it was on social media).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 10, 2019, 02:02:06 AM
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090906/gfs_asnow_eu_41.png)

Forecast hour 240
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 10, 2019, 05:27:47 AM
Looks like winter may be coming early to high elevations of Norway this year, those totals are pretty ridiculous.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019090906/gfs_asnow_eu_41.png)

Forecast hour 240
That is through 240, i.e., D1-10, not D10.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 10, 2019, 01:03:59 PM
It has snowed somewhat on coastal Norway. A succession of Atlantic Lows charging up the Norwegian Sea. Remains of Dorian in a couple of days and the remnants of Gabrielle a day or 2 later. But they have residual warmth in them - more rain than snow?

ElDorado has some nice images
https://www.eldoradoweather.com/climate/world-maps/world-snow-ice-cover.html

And this site has chance of snow in Europe forecasts - says only bits and pieces in the next few days.
https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/forecastmaps?LANG=en&UP=0&R=0&MORE=1&MAPS=snw&CONT=euro&LAND=__&ZEIT=201909110600


It is Autumn, the season of equinoxial gales (also recorded in several novels about Alaska in the late 19th century), so Maritime regions are going to get a bit wet, and if cold enough, a dump of snow.

But so far nowt to get excited about.
_______________________________________________________________
speculation and a bit off-topic: If the reemergence of the North Pacific Warm warm blob comes to pass, the very strong equinoxial gales in the North Pacific that are usual at this time of year could shove a load of warmth into the Arctic via the Bering Strait. Too late for melting, but plenty enough to slow refreezing?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 12, 2019, 12:46:42 AM
September is usually the snowiest month at Alert, Canada and snowfall there has picked up in the last day or so.

Earlier today there was 17cm of lying snow.

Edit: snow is back today in Norilsk Russia. Temps just below zero and there was 10mm (rainfall equivalent) of snow
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 14, 2019, 12:45:17 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current :- 12 September

Early days yet.

A slowish start to the season in North America, snow cover extent at average.

An early blob of new snow on the Central Siberian coast (in the Yenisey(?) river valley). The Himalayas and Tibet is where excess snow has lain for over a year.

In a previous post I showed the Canadian forecast for above to very much above average temperatures from Sept to Nov, especially in the far north of Canada. We will see.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 15, 2019, 12:15:23 PM
The snow in Central Siberia has increased, and extent is very much above average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 16, 2019, 10:00:32 PM
Indeed it has, and again last night. I think by 10/1 we will be well above normal in Eurasia, by 10/10 we will be well above normal in North America as well. (we are well above normal in Eurasia already, but will probably diverge even more with normal over the next two weeks, with forecasts showing major snows across most of Siberia).

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)

This is going to have very interesting implications for the sea ice. We are going to have the most snowcover sandwiched (latitudinally) under open Arctic Ocean in the satellite record. This should act to advect an unprecedented amount of oceanic heat into the Arctic in sync with worsening +500MB anomalies centered overtop the Arctic. In short: snowcover growth and accumulation this year is, IMO, likely to be quite explosive.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on September 18, 2019, 06:48:46 PM

Hmm... Won't snow act to trap heat in the ground? I think the best analogy is when you burn yourself. The first thing you want to do is run lots of cold water over the burn.

Heat flow of a spike on the surface (say summer insolation) is best reduced by applying lots of cold to the the surface as quickly and for as long as possible. Having a nice snow cover reduces the heat loss dramatically compared to emissive heat loss from the ground itself. You have to conduct that heat through all those nice insulating air bubbles in the snow rather than just through a couple of meters of soggy ground.

Of course it depends on the timing, but I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost and sea ice retention. Snow on sea ice effectively reduces the FDDs buy elevating the temperature of the ice compared to having no snow. That snow cover persisting into the high insolation months has the opposite effect. Raising albedo when the sun should be warming the ground has the opposite effect.

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 18, 2019, 08:06:26 PM

Hmm... Won't snow act to trap heat in the ground? I think the best analogy is when you burn yourself. The first thing you want to do is run lots of cold water over the burn.

Heat flow of a spike on the surface (say summer insolation) is best reduced by applying lots of cold to the the surface as quickly and for as long as possible. Having a nice snow cover reduces the heat loss dramatically compared to emissive heat loss from the ground itself. You have to conduct that heat through all those nice insulating air bubbles in the snow rather than just through a couple of meters of soggy ground.

Of course it depends on the timing, but I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost and sea ice retention. Snow on sea ice effectively reduces the FDDs buy elevating the temperature of the ice compared to having no snow. That snow cover persisting into the high insolation months has the opposite effect. Raising albedo when the sun should be warming the ground has the opposite effect.

As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.
I think it IS trapping heat in the ground, but this is only happening in areas that have persistently warm summers, I.E., Siberia. Siberia's anomalies year over year have become increasingly HOT.

However, in parts of Canada, summertime anomalies are actually below recent normals. This would IMO have the inverse impact, of resulting in increasing / expanding permafrost zones. Of course, Siberia is much larger than Canada, but the seesaw is (IMO) occurring in opposite directions in both of these areas (and the warmer Siberia gets, the colder Canada becomes).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 18, 2019, 09:02:13 PM
...I think there would be a good thermodynamic argument that deep and early snow cover is really bad for permafrost...

There are numerous studies that have confirmed this. The increase in early snowfall across the NH is a disaster for permafrost.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 18, 2019, 09:07:30 PM
As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

Exactly what we are seeing.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2019, 10:56:44 PM
As the Earth warms, perhaps we will go through a phase of increased snowfall as the amount of water in the atmosphere increases, but that snow will melt out faster in the spring. The worst of both worlds for ice and permafrost.

Exactly what we are seeing.
The last climate change document I read from Canada forecast much less snow in Southern Canada, and later snow start, earlier melt, and overall less snow north of 55 degrees as was the long-term trend to 2015.

A warming climate must mean a snow line moving north and into higher altitudes, even though there will be more water in the atmosphere. Either way, I think it means nothing good for permafrost.

Another study, which I can't find, talked about a 1.5 degrees AGW meaning a long-term reduction in N. Hemisphere permafrost from over 16 million km2 to around 13 million Km2.

Count the ways in which we are screwed.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on September 23, 2019, 02:11:51 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

3 weeks into this year's snow season, so here are some graphs etc.

The season is very much as average. Even in years with very high snow amounts, this happened later.

Once again, if not for a lot of snow from last season in the Himalayas and Tibet that did not melt , Eurasia snow would be much less.

Attached is a gif of North America snowfall to add interest to a boring post. One or two ays missing. Click to start.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Alexander555 on September 28, 2019, 07:51:09 PM
The jet steam is moving. https://watchers.news/2019/09/26/historic-early-season-snowstorm-montana-rockies/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 29, 2019, 07:29:57 PM
Has anyone seen bbr2314. I'm a little worried about him.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 07:38:06 PM
Yep, he posted in the freezing season thread recently >>

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg230812.html#msg230812
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 30, 2019, 12:14:53 AM
Has anyone seen bbr2314. I'm a little worried about him.
I <3 you too  ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on September 30, 2019, 11:02:18 PM
The greens are finally growing in both continents.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png)

It looks like snowcover is at about 7M KM^2 across the NHEM. Within the next week its extent should be about double that of the sea ice.

In a situation where snowcover expands more rapidly than sea ice, and can cover a much wider area much faster to much greater albedo differential, the Daisy Experiment explains why land snowcover compensates for blue ocean in the Arctic when surface ice caps are still extant to sufficient volume (which they are).

You can say Milankovitch Cycles 10 times over and they still can't properly account for how ice ages actually occur. I think this is the simplest explanation and it is unfolding before our eyes. Yay!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 01, 2019, 12:33:11 PM
Away we go!

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_swe.png)

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_sce.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 01, 2019, 02:52:57 PM
One dump of snow a New Ice Age doth not make.

It blows hot & cold at this time of year. (Max & Min forecast temps attached)
The battle between snowfall and melt is underway.

Gif of snow season to date also attached - click to play (it plays three times until clicked again)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 01, 2019, 04:13:14 PM

In a situation where snowcover expands more rapidly than sea ice, and can cover a much wider area much faster to much greater albedo differential, the Daisy Experiment explains why land snowcover compensates for blue ocean in the Arctic when surface ice caps are still extant to sufficient volume (which they are).

You can say Milankovitch Cycles 10 times over and they still can't properly account for how ice ages actually occur. I think this is the simplest explanation and it is unfolding before our eyes. Yay!
For those who want a good intro to Milankovitch Cycles you can't do better than to go to ....
https://phys.org/news/2016-12-ice-ages-linked-earth-orbitbut.html
Ice ages have been linked to the Earth's wobbly orbit—but when is the next one?

I'm inclined to go along with the author's final remarks...
Quote
One idea is that small increases in greenhouse gases due to the expansion of agriculture that started 8,000 years ago have in fact delayed the next ice age. What's more, if we continue emitting greenhouse gases at the same rate, we might have put off the next ice age for at least half a million years.

If we have merely delayed the next ice age, we will still be in the Quaternary Period – the last 2.58m years defined by the ice age cycles. But if we have stopped the ice ages, humans will have caused a much greater change and so have entered the Anthropocene period as some argue. If I had to put money on it, I'd say the Earth has experienced its last ice age for a very, very long time.

Meanwhile,  Environment Canada & the NOAA-CPC have issued their seasonal forecasts for Oct-Dec. Warm
The Russian HMC have issued their forecast for Nov19 to Jan20 - High Arctic -COLD


We will see.
 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 01, 2019, 04:18:49 PM
Whoops - forgot USA - but who cares what happens south of 49 North?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 02, 2019, 12:53:26 AM
One dump of snow a New Ice Age doth not make.

It blows hot & cold at this time of year. (Max & Min forecast temps attached)
The battle between snowfall and melt is underway.

Gif of snow season to date also attached - click to play (it plays three times until clicked again)
You are correct. But that is not what we have had. We have had tons of snow at all times of year resulting in very much below normal temperatures for the "triangle of coldness" centered on Montana for three years running, worsening year over year.

Will it relent at some point? Probably. But how long until it happens again, if it does not happen this time, and what happens when it is -10F on the year instead of -5F? At that point the snow will be falling through July and August with much more depth and coverage, and the scope of negatives has the potential to increase in breadth dramatically. The longer these anomalies persist into the spring and summer the more negative they are (when considering the continents). The same can be said for re-appearance of snowcover earlier than normal in autumn.

In the Nebraska climate record maps (limited back to 2003) 2018+2019 are by far the coldest couplet in this region. 2008-09 are the next closest. In that situation, the cold lingered into 2010 and 2011, though less severely, before relenting majorly in 2012. I think the problem is that 2012 was a threshold in its own right and we may no longer be able to see such an event due to how much the snowfall is now compensating for the sea ice.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 02, 2019, 12:56:37 AM
L-oh-L

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 04, 2019, 01:49:13 PM
Below is a complete copy of a post by AbruptSLR, from which I quote

.....50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain,..............

But then again, Nebraska isn't in the Arctic.
__________________________________________________________
ps:
North America Snow Cover Extent back down to average (due to melt),
Eurasia Snow Cover Extent still going up strongly,

__________________________________________________________
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2205.msg231856.html#msg231856

Quote from: AbruptSLR on October 03, 2019, 10:55:10 PM

Edit: I note that consensus models project that with continuing global warming, rainfall will increase in the Arctic in coming decades; which will not only impact: Arctic sea ice extent, potential release of excess freshwater from the Arctic Ocean, glacial ice, but also permafrost (which will not only increase CO2 emissions, but also methane emissions from thermal karst lakes).

Imagine what Bintanja (2018) would project if it had used a model with ECS greater than 5C:

R. Bintanja (2018), "The impact of Arctic warming on increased rainfall", Scientific Reports,  8, Article number: 16001, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-34450-3

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

Abstract: "The Arctic region is warming two to three times faster than the global mean, intensifying the hydrological cycle in the high north. Both enhanced regional evaporation and poleward moisture transport contribute to a 50–60% increase in Arctic precipitation over the 21st century. The additional precipitation is diagnosed to fall primarily as rain, but the physical and dynamical constraints governing the transition to a rain-dominated Arctic are unknown. Here we use actual precipitation, snowfall, rainfall output of 37 global climate models in standardised 21st-century simulations to demonstrate that, on average, the main contributor to additional Arctic (70–90°N) rainfall is local warming (~70%), whereas non-local (thermo)dynamical processes associated with precipitation changes contribute only 30%. Surprisingly, the effect of local warming peaks in the frigid high Arctic, where modest summer temperature changes exert a much larger effect on rainfall changes than strong wintertime warming. This counterintuitive seasonality exhibits steep geographical gradients, however, governed by non-linear changes in the temperature-dependent snowfall fraction, thereby obscuring regional-scale attribution of enhanced Arctic rainfall to climate warming. Detailed knowledge of the underlying causes behind Arctic snow/rainfall changes will contribute to more accurate assessments of the (possibly irreversible) impacts on hydrology/run-off, permafrost thawing, ecosystems, sea ice retreat, and glacier melt."

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 06, 2019, 06:20:02 AM
Blizzard #2 getting ready to bear down on Montana and Upper Plains

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019100600/gfs_asnow_us_27.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 11, 2019, 08:07:39 AM
17 days earlier than the earliest on record, set almost one century ago... when CO2 was at approximately 305PPM... over 100PPM or only 75% of today's values.

Maybe it is time to acknowledge that CO2 is an albedo accelerant when ice caps are still extant, and that it is albedo which primarily drives our climate, a factor that is only modulated by GHG. And GHG are going to flip land albedo to "white daisies" as oceans heat up, more moisture becomes available, and the sea ice dwindles. The only way to maintain equilibrium is to compensate with more snowfall on land. This is already happening. 

Equilibrium in the system is maintained by LAND albedo flux much more easily than oceanic albedo flux. In short, this means more "white daisies" as the oceanic heat load worsens alongside the continuous rise of GHGs.

Just wait til it keeps snowing into July, then August, and we get a year without a summer at all in these regions. At that point the only thing left to do will be to LOL.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 11, 2019, 04:44:16 PM
Just wait til it keeps snowing into July, then August, and we get a year without a summer at all in these regions. At that point the only thing left to do will be to LOL.

I like this thread and am absolutely certain that the trend towards increased NH snow cover in the fall is directly due to changes driven by AGW. More stretches of open water, increase in atmospheric water content and a loopy jet stream that allows for Arctic air intrusions into the lower latitudes are all contributing factors. Never the less, despite these large positive snow anomalies in the fall and early winter, we are still seeing large negative snow anomalies in the spring and summer due to the much warmer temperatures rapidly melting all of this snow earlier and earlier in the spring.

When you insert comments like the one above, you actually undermine the very real expertise that you have when evaluating this new phenomena which makes this thread less valuable as a result. Your contributions here are valuable and I have made it a regular habit to visit. Perhaps we should wait for evidence that snow is persisting into the late spring and summer before we declare the beginning of the new ice age.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 11, 2019, 06:52:55 PM
Snow is an insulator and a reflector. It prevents the earth losing heat and increases albedo. I foot of snow is equivalent to R15 insulation. It doesn't matter if the year was a "cold" or "warm" one, the difference is that the surface of the ground is insulated against emitting heat into space, the "ground" surface doesn't drop to -40 C or what ever the ambient temperature is. The contrast one has to consider for the analysis is the difference between winter and summer temperatures, not year on year changes.

Albedo is more important when the balance of heat loss prevented by the insulation throughout the day is less than the amount of heat added from insolation. If snow cover DOES persist into the summer then one, clearly, can make an argument that heat into the earth from insolation is going to decrease. From Shared Humanities post, the evidence is that this is not happening. Snow is melting out rapidly in the spring.

Basically we apply a nice reflective blanket in the cold of the night, to keep the heat in, then we pull it off as soon as there is enough warm sunshine to heat up the ground. My guess is its a strong positive feedback loop into warming the earth.

There will be nice deep early snowfalls from a meandering jet stream and an increasingly wet atmosphere, the latitudes that the snow will persist into spring will move north. The permafrost that relies on winter heat loss will thin and decline in extent, releasing more methane and CO2 and feeding the increasingly warm wet cycle towards an equitable climate.

The above are some of the feedbacks that amplify Milankovitch cycle variations. The cycles themselves don't change the heat input into the earth enough to cause the variations that we observe in previous interglacials. We are in a Milankovitch interglacial now and have accelerated the feedbacks by the release of gigatons of CO2.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 16, 2019, 07:29:28 AM
This would be a TAD EARLY though it is way off in la la land.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019101600/gfs_asnow_us_65.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 17, 2019, 04:11:31 AM
16 days!!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on October 17, 2019, 01:27:20 PM
In la la land the snow falls thick as ice cream off a lolly stick
and every year an ice age starts , denied again by some old farts

while forecasts come and forecasts go , we only mention those with snow
all the others we ignore 'cause sunshine's such an effing bore.


 


Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 17, 2019, 09:34:49 PM
In la la land the snow falls thick as ice cream off a lolly stick
and every year an ice age starts , denied again by some old farts

while forecasts come and forecasts go , we only mention those with snow
all the others we ignore 'cause sunshine's such an effing bore.
+5000  ;D
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 19, 2019, 03:23:44 AM
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/882EB4EAFFC0A047D81202E95D74F00D/S002214300003121Xa.pdf/on_the_hypothesis_of_ice_ages_suggested_by_captain_e_s_gernet.pdf

Apparently "The ice lichens, a new theory of ice ages" is a long-lost book containing much of what I have speculated in this thread, I am not surprised it was eliminated from history considering it exposed what is perhaps mankind's greatest existential threat. It is tragic that actual research into this field has been buried since the 1950s, but unsurprising if the assertions of Captain Gernet do turn out to be correct (which I believe they will).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 19, 2019, 02:47:34 PM
Snow data from https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 18 Oct 2019


It snows, it melts, it snows again, it melts again.. until winter properly arrives.

North America. Snow cover extent 1 SD above average. Much as in recent years.
However, the beginning of the new Ice Sheet seems to have moved from Quebec to Alaska this year.

Eurasia A recent big melt brings snow cover extent to below average.

ps: Greenland snowfall so far at average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on October 19, 2019, 11:38:18 PM
https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/882EB4EAFFC0A047D81202E95D74F00D/S002214300003121Xa.pdf/on_the_hypothesis_of_ice_ages_suggested_by_captain_e_s_gernet.pdf

Apparently "The ice lichens, a new theory of ice ages" is a long-lost book containing much of what I have speculated in this thread, I am not surprised it was eliminated from history considering it exposed what is perhaps mankind's greatest existential threat. It is tragic that actual research into this field has been buried since the 1950s, but unsurprising if the assertions of Captain Gernet do turn out to be correct (which I believe they will).

The article talks about the publications history. It was always rather obscure.

Many people have been looking into icesheets and ice ages from many angles and science fields which lots more observing and computing power since the 1950s.

Gernet appeals for the necessity of mankind destroying the Greenland ice sheet.

So you agree with that too?

Maybe we have been working on that in secret inspired by the captains book all this time?  ::)

Anyway it was an interesting read.
Of his points:
i) Normal condition of the Earth is no ice ages.

Our modern normal condition is with ice ages and our present culture evolved with them

ii) about the origin is the same as i) By Gernet and Stokes so that is ok.
iii) glaciers and ice sheets are a self regulating process and they are like disease of the planet

They are not like a disease
So this loops back to one. I read on to find what he would say about the retreat part but there is not much but this which you probably like:

The retreat stage lasts up to the moment when accumulation exceeds melting which occurs after the Arctic Ocean becomes free of ice. Then the above-mentioned cycle begins again.

This way it works when the conditions remain more or less the same so waxing and waning due to Milankovitch cycles.

But on a grander scale geologic changes are more important for turning them on or off.
And that includes our puny humans PETM beating run.

I am not surprised it was eliminated from history considering it exposed what is perhaps mankind's greatest existential threat.

Anyway i think it´s interesting that you seem to think glaciation is the greatest threat. Always made for some nice niche entertainment.  ;)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 20, 2019, 10:54:41 AM
There are clearly many issues with the publication, but I like the conceptualization of ice sheets as a disease, or rather, as an organism. I think that is actually a sensible way of looking at things if Daisy  World is of real value (which it is). The ice sheet is not literally a living entity. But it helps in realizing why it spreads or retreats.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102000/gfs_T2m_us_39.png)

The models are trending very cold in the mid to long range across North America. These anomalies result in actual temps of something like -20F up at Yellowstone. While they are used to early winters, I think this year could be the worst start in quite some time.

Even before ^ output, the forecast is decidedly frigid. It is only mid-October.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on October 20, 2019, 03:58:29 PM

The models are trending very cold in the mid to long range across North America.

The image is not for all of North America. Indeed most of the really cold Arctic type weather is in Canada.
Canada 28 day forecast attached. Pretty much average over land, above average temps over the CAA, Baffin Bay and Pactic Ocean. https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s

The US CEP says there will be a cold blob in late October /Early Nov.
But overall November looks really average for the lower 48 & Alaska above average.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 21, 2019, 04:23:38 AM
I think November is going to be cold for the Lower 48.

Across the pond, the GFS is now showing snow across much of Ireland in 4-5 days.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eu_20.png)

I believe such an event for Ireland would be unprecedented at this time of year, snow is rare enough there in general.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102018/gfs_asnow_eu_24.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 22, 2019, 07:15:11 AM
Looks like GFS has backed off the snow in Ireland which is not too surprising. According to Rutgers we are now way above normal again. I suspect this will be reflected in Canuck extent imminently but it should be noted that despite the temporary extent drop we did see, SWE remained above +1SD in both Eurasia and NAmerica.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 24, 2019, 04:00:44 AM
There are a couple counties out west where this is now the case for 2019 (coldest max temps ever for rolling period yr to date)

It should also be noted that February 2019 sticks out like a sore thumb. The only months that came near it previously across the High Plains were February of 1936 and March of 1843, apparently.

The area of the negative departures (up to 30F this February) was coupled with what are some of the coldest areas naturally occurring in the Lower 48 resulting in particularly exceptional temperatures. Like, not seen since 1936.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493%281979%29107%3C1688%3ATETAOM%3E2.0.CO%3B2

I think 2019-20 will repeat these conditions but the core of the anomalies will be farther east, over the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan / Ontario. That could result in the worst anomalies being situated much closer to population centers.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 25, 2019, 03:23:43 AM
October is ending with quite a bang

Also note the correlation between the worst-ever pinks over the Chukchi etc this year and the worst-ever purples now occurring over the "Triangle of Coldness" on REPEAT this autumn.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102418/gfs_T2ma_namer_13.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102418/gfs_T2ma_namer_21.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019102418/gfs_T2ma_namer_65.png)

I think the GFS is wrong in the delay between the second cold shot ^ and the worst one at the end of its run. The CMC maintains the cold more steadily and I think it is correct. But I think that also lends credence to the notion that these shots of cold are still worsening and so there will be some ridiculous -20F or greater departures across parts of the High Plains by early November as depicted by the most recent GFS in the very extended range.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019102412/gem_T2ma_namer_22.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019102412/gem_T2ma_namer_26.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019102412/gem_T2ma_namer_30.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 26, 2019, 04:27:00 AM
Yikes

https://sercc.com/climper/ClimPerList.php?station=RAPthr&mode=ClimPer&date=2019-10-24&count=297_DAY
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on October 30, 2019, 09:36:28 PM
The models are now hunkering down on a period of extremely severe cold across most of North America centered in the "triangle of coldness" through 11/15 and maybe beyond.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2019103012/gem_T2m_us_41.png)

Those are sub-0F temps being forecast across Iowa etc. And it is early November! The GFS and EURO are similar with overall picture. In fact the consensus would indicate parts of Montana / ND could be running up to -10C or cooler for November as a whole by the middle of the month.

Temperatures are forecast to remain intermittently above freezing or much above freezing across the Bering / Chukchi through D15 as well.

The out-of-sync nature of where Arctic airmasses should be vs. where they are is (IMO) going to result in a VERY early refreeze of most freshwater lakes in North America (possibly underway already in much of Canada). As we head deeper into November this may result in the gradient with Bering + Chukchi worsening even further, and I would think that will result in a "stuck" pattern worsening for much of the foreseeable future, with the core of the cold anomalies slowly dropping eastward alongside the albedo / snowfall gradient to gradually encompass all of the Midwest and Northeast.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 01, 2019, 04:40:39 PM
November forecast from the US CPC & Environment Canada.

USA - Warm in the West, cold in the East. Canada - mixed

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 08:40:07 AM

576
SXUS73 KLOT 120639 CCA
RERORD

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
1237 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2019

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AND RECORD LOW SET AT CHICAGO-
OHARE IL...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 3.4 INCHES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE IL MONDAY
NOVEMBER 11TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.9 SET IN 1995.

A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 13 DEGREES WAS SET AT CHICAGO-OHARE IL
MONDAY NOVEMBER 11TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 15 DEGREES SET
IN 1950.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 08:48:05 AM
I think there is the best chance we have had for a total refreeze of Lake Michigan this winter. The background conditions are already frigid and the entirety of the lake is now surrounded by anomalously early snowcover (and has been from time to time this season, in fact Chicago has recorded snowfall 4 days so far this month, and this is after O'Hare had the record event in late October).

Conditions are priming Michigan, Superior, and Huron for a very early refreeze, I believe.

(https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/30dTDeptUS.png)

This will have major ramifications into springtime and maybe even summertime if it does occur. In 2013-14 the lakes had substantial coverage into April, with remnant ice making it into June in parts of Superior. Any additional headstart on that event could result in substantial comparative mass + coverage gain by springtime. And the later the ice melts in spring, the more it thickens in the meantime as it keeps snowing in the vicinity (generally speaking).

It would really be something to see Michigan freeze over 100% completely, which it never has before (mid-90s max). When a lake freezes completely I wonder if mass gain accelerates as well? IDK just a thought
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on November 12, 2019, 10:28:13 AM
  an early freeze would reduce snowfall in the vicinity by killing lake effect snow .. b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 10:37:35 AM
  an early freeze would reduce snowfall in the vicinity by killing lake effect snow .. b.c.
It doesn't eliminate LES, strong winds move ice around and re-open the Lakes until at least Feb / Mar, and even with full 100% coverage this will still happen. It does cut down on LES.

But with the Chukchi now open in all of November and Bering the same for DJF, there is probably enough offset from up north for the difference to be less relevant than it would be otherwise (and this is the primary reason for the supremely FRIGID temps of late, as the +precip / +snowfall in areas that are close to desert is enough to drop their temps dramatically, which translates downwind). This is specifically in reference to the elevated "Triangle of Coldness" between the Northern Rockies, Hudson Bay, and the GL.

By springtime, as the ice begins to melt, I think the flux and extant ice are very much supportive of much more snowfall as a percent of overall precip when the lakes are covered (at least in their vicinity +/- a few hundred miles).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 15, 2019, 11:04:19 PM
The departures this month (to date) are, I believe, unprecedented. In Chicago, the monthly temp to date is below the all-time coldest November, which is quite a feat considering we are halfway through the warmest part of the month! While we may see some moderation in the second half, a top-5 finish would appear likely.

I think this is directly tied to the increasing precipitation totals in Montana. It is the most notable variable that appears to be correlated with these episodes of frigidity (and derivative of the lack of sea ice way up north). The lack of sea ice in Chukchi / etc sends the jetstream N->S across the Rockies instead of W->E. This results in CA dryness, and a HUGE increase in precipitation for north-facing slopes of the High Rockies east of the Continental Divide.

(https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dTDataUS.png)

(https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dTDeptUS.png)

(https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/7dPNormUS.png)

This is only going to get worse and worse as the sea ice continues to fade. AND, it is going to be coupled with dropping temps in the Great Lakes as it keeps getting worse. We may still see a year or two like 2011-12 in between now and BOE where the reaction fades, but I am now increasingly convinced we are hurtling towards a localized resurgence of the ice age, which will eventually become non-localized.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: El Cid on November 16, 2019, 08:52:24 AM
The departures this month (to date) are, I believe, unprecedented. In Chicago, the monthly temp to date is below the all-time coldest November, which is quite a feat considering we are halfway through the warmest part of the month!

Just an interesting tidbit relating to that: central Europe had its 1st/2nd/3rd warmest October (depending on location) and it seems to be on track to have its 1st/2nd warmest November (see our weather forecast - in degree C, its been similar to that the whole month).  <our average November temperature used to be 5-6 C, the last 10 yrs around 8 C, and this month is likely to be above 10 C>
I think that as the Arctic warms the pole of cold is moving from the Greenland/North Pole area towards the Greenland-Hudson area (added snow for albedo effect due to lots of moisture export). This makes it possible to push more warm air into Europe...

(BTW, Budapest has not seen freezing temperatures, that is below 0 C since February 25th and will likely not see any until at least the end of November - that is unprecedented and pretty much subtropical)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 16, 2019, 03:11:12 PM
USA-
- earlier this month damn cold and loads of snow in the West
- then warmth arrived and most of the snow has melted
- so the damn cold moved east, loads of cold and snow.
But it looks like the cold may moderate and a lot of that snow may melt in the next few days.

North America -as at 15 Nov Snow Cover Extent more than +1SD above average but quite an impressive melt in the last couple of days.

I am sure another blast of cold and snow will roar down from the North as a big wobbly Rossby wave drifts in from the west.
I am also (not quite so) sure that a big wobble Rossby wave will come from the south some time or other.

So my speculation that belongs to me is that while the Polar Vortex stays feeble we will see more drama in both cold and warmth and snowfall and snow melt, each lasting longer than what was once the norm.

ps: Eurasia - as at 15 Nov snow cover extent just a tad above average according to the graph, while it looks less than average on the map..

pps: Most of the snow in North America is not in the lower 48 of the US of A.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 16, 2019, 09:53:30 PM
Currently 40F and sunny in Chicago. 3 inch snow from earlier this week is disappearing. Highs for all of next week are from 40F to 50F.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on November 16, 2019, 10:31:04 PM
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.


To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 17, 2019, 12:52:00 PM
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.


To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
But South of 49, the melt goes on...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 17, 2019, 02:02:32 PM
Warmer (more typical) weather will melt much of the snow in the eastern U.S.  This will be countered by heavy snow out west.  May balance out or may not.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 17, 2019, 04:49:57 PM
The departures this month (to date) are, I believe, unprecedented. In Chicago, the monthly temp to date is below the all-time coldest November, which is quite a feat considering we are halfway through the warmest part of the month! While we may see some moderation in the second half, a top-5 finish would appear likely.

Mini ice ages are phenomena that extend over thousands of years. I just find it odd that two weeks of 'unprecedented' cold anomaly across NA would cause anyone to be.,,

...now increasingly convinced we are hurtling towards a localized resurgence of the ice age, which will eventually become non-localized.

Having said that, it appears the trend of positive snow fall anomalies early in the winter in the NH are showing up again.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 17, 2019, 05:51:03 PM
 Trends in snow cover data for 1950–2012 in Canada. Upward (downward) pointing triangles indicate Positive (negative) trends. Solid triangles correspond to trends significant at the 5% level. (Vincent et al. 2015).

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/past/snow_cover_triangles.jpg

Trends are almost uniformly down during this time frame.

"Snow depth measurements are made daily at Canadian climate stations from manual ruler observation or from automated gauges that continuously measure the distance to the snow surface via ultrasound. Trend analysis of stations with continuous daily snow depth data from 1950-2012 (Figure 2) shows that the duration of snow on the ground has decreased almost everywhere in Canada with the largest decreases in the spring. The average decrease in snow cover over the period was 18 days and was accompanied by decreases in maximum winter snow depths and a shift in the date of peak snow accumulation to earlier in the season. The decrease in the maximum snow depth over southern Canada is being driven by less winter precipitation and a lower fraction of precipitation falling as snow in response to winter warming (Vincent et al. 2015). Satellite monitoring of the total snow covered area of Canada began in the early 1970s and these data confirm the significant reductions in spring snow cover seen at the climate stations."
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 17, 2019, 06:08:45 PM
You can create SWE animations for Canada from 1979 to 2012 here.

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/past/swe

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 17, 2019, 06:09:45 PM
The current conventional wisdom from the climate models is that snowfall will increase at high latitudes as less cold air with higher water content heads north. On the other hand, at lower latitudes the snow season will start later and end earlier,i.e. over the year less snow and more rain.

I doubt the models yet incorporate the effects of a wobbly weak polar vortex allowing large slowly moving Rossby waves occasionally bringing down polar air to low latitudes as happened recently. The vice versa is relatively very warm air heading to the high north from low latitudes.

So my speculation that belongs to me is to see more often extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth. But who knows what this winter will bring.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2314 on November 17, 2019, 08:13:11 PM
Trends in snow cover data for 1950–2012 in Canada. Upward (downward) pointing triangles indicate Positive (negative) trends. Solid triangles correspond to trends significant at the 5% level. (Vincent et al. 2015).

https://www.ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/past/snow_cover_triangles.jpg

Trends are almost uniformly down during this time frame.

"Snow depth measurements are made daily at Canadian climate stations from manual ruler observation or from automated gauges that continuously measure the distance to the snow surface via ultrasound. Trend analysis of stations with continuous daily snow depth data from 1950-2012 (Figure 2) shows that the duration of snow on the ground has decreased almost everywhere in Canada with the largest decreases in the spring. The average decrease in snow cover over the period was 18 days and was accompanied by decreases in maximum winter snow depths and a shift in the date of peak snow accumulation to earlier in the season. The decrease in the maximum snow depth over southern Canada is being driven by less winter precipitation and a lower fraction of precipitation falling as snow in response to winter warming (Vincent et al. 2015). Satellite monitoring of the total snow covered area of Canada began in the early 1970s and these data confirm the significant reductions in spring snow cover seen at the climate stations."

This is very useful however my whole thesis has been that 2012 was the "apex" of the warmth and we have only seen the snowy trend emerge in force since that year. Or perhaps 2007-2012 was the apex. In any case, this is still wonderful!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 18, 2019, 04:07:03 PM
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.


To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
But South of 49, the melt goes on...
and on.....
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: TerryM on November 19, 2019, 03:16:41 PM
Yea I'm in Canada but at about the same latitude as the California/Oregon border. A little north of that border, but not by much.
No new snow last night and grass showing everywhere. Only the best insulated roofs are snow covered.
I don't think I've experienced a week since 2004 when I couldn't see grass - but my balcony faces south. :)
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 20, 2019, 11:14:06 AM
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.

To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
But South of 49, the melt goes on...
and on.....
and on....

Turning into an event, i.e. a bit more than a hiccup. Can this melt persist ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2019, 05:04:18 AM
Today in Chicago, it was sunny with a high of 48F. Tomorrow's high will be 54F but a lot of rain in the forecast. I would say the melt could continue but there is no snow to melt here.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Midnightsun on November 21, 2019, 08:50:32 AM
So my speculation that belongs to me is to see more often extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth. But who knows what this winter will bring.

Extreme cold + snow followed by extreme warmth has been delivered here in Northernmost Sweden. From -30C and snowcover at start of November (extreme cold anomaly -10C), to +3C and rain for days now (extreme warm anomaly +10C).

It was also strangely humid despite the cold degrees.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2019, 12:17:12 PM
Still damn cold & snowy here in Cambridge Ontario.

To be honest I recall many a snowy Halloween in my long past youth.
Terry
But South of 49, the melt goes on...
and on.....
and on....

Turning into an event, i.e. a bit more than a hiccup. Can this melt persist ?
Looks like snow in the West, more melt in the East (if its not completely gone as in Chicago already)
________________________________________________________
Stupid question - if in a melting season all the ice and snow is completely gone, is it still the melting season?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 24, 2019, 04:29:17 PM
Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover is - average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 25, 2019, 04:37:00 PM
Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover is - average.
North American Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover is - below? average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 25, 2019, 05:38:06 PM
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 26, 2019, 01:43:55 AM
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.

Approaching where?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 26, 2019, 02:58:11 AM
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.

Approaching where?

Western and central U.S.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 28, 2019, 08:35:44 PM
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.

Approaching where?

Western and central U.S.
Yep, it has snowed. (H2O, not the other sort of snow).

Qu1: Any more snow to come?
Qu2: Will it melt? Maybe in the Lower 48 next week.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 29, 2019, 02:14:48 PM
Wait a few days.  A big snowstorm is approaching.

Approaching where?

Western and central U.S.
Yep, it has snowed. (H2O, not the other sort of snow).

Qu1: Any more snow to come?
Qu2: Will it melt? Maybe in the Lower 48 next week.
Qu1: Any more snow to come? Yep.
Qu2: Will it melt? Not yet.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on November 30, 2019, 08:05:37 AM
My snow shovel is still collecting dust in the garage. In my 12 years here (south BC interior), the previous record for "latest into the winter season I had to get the snow shovel out" was November 8th.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on November 30, 2019, 01:54:35 PM
My snow shovel is still collecting dust in the garage. In my 12 years here (south BC interior), the previous record for "latest into the winter season I had to get the snow shovel out" was November 8th.
Looks like your snow-free patch is surrounded by the white stuff.

https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/plot_anom_sdep.png

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on December 01, 2019, 12:53:40 AM
My snow shovel is still collecting dust in the garage. In my 12 years here (south BC interior), the previous record for "latest into the winter season I had to get the snow shovel out" was November 8th.
Looks like your snow-free patch is surrounded by the white stuff.

Yep. (and hopefully it stays this way!) Weather vs. climate & all that. Still waiting for that Quebec glaciation to happen.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: philopek on December 01, 2019, 02:21:47 AM
My snow shovel is still collecting dust in the garage. In my 12 years here (south BC interior), the previous record for "latest into the winter season I had to get the snow shovel out" was November 8th.
Looks like your snow-free patch is surrounded by the white stuff.
Yep. (and hopefully it stays this way!) Weather vs. climate & all that. Still waiting for that Quebec glaciation to happen.

Not to forget about the Swiss cheese kind of a Greenland ice-shield  8)

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 03, 2019, 04:19:08 PM
Anyone would think winter had arrived.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2019, 07:21:51 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 4 Dec

But how much melt before the next blast ?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 09, 2019, 11:58:03 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 4 Dec

Qu: But how much melt before the next blast ?
_____________________________
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current - 8 Dec

A:  Quite a lot (North America and Eurasia)

My speculation that belongs to me (mostly stolen from real scientists) - for North America especially ↠↠
Global heating ↠ Weak Polar Vortex
↠ ↠ large slow-moving Rossby Waves 
↠ ↠ influx of cold & snow from the North
↠ ↠ followed by influx of warmth from the South

= record snowfall & storms followed by strong melt = overall average snow cover.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 09, 2019, 10:42:10 PM
47F and raining in Chicago.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 15, 2019, 03:07:30 PM
Generally, over recent years, snow cover extent has lagged snow water equivalent in the NH.

https://www.ccin.ca/index.php/ccw/snow/current

If we look at the current map for snow depth anomalies, it is clear what is happening. Positive anomalies are generally occurring at higher elevations and latitudes while negative anomalies are occurring at lower elevations and latitudes. Kind of expected, IMHO.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 18, 2019, 02:37:34 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 17 December

New snow in North America, but wunderground.com say temperatures will rise in the US Lower 48. A thaw coming?

In Eurasia only modest new snowfall.

Overall snow cover extent for the Northern Hemisphere very much average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on December 23, 2019, 06:12:10 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 December

Interesting contrast between Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).

In North America (NA) SCE is a average after a thaw at low latitudes, relatively low compared with the last 2 years. But SWE is above average.

Eurasia (EU) SCE is very much below average, mainly due to an absence of snow cover in Europe. But SWE is well very much above average.

In other words, where there is snow its thickness and therefore mass is very much above average.

We are also getting close to the maxima of SCE and SWE for the northern hemisphere, though from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2020, 08:26:48 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 3 January 2020

The situation as described below on 22 December has not changed. i.e. Snow Cover Extent at or below average, Snow Water Equivalent well above average, meaning average snow thickness (where it is lying) very much above average.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 December

Interesting contrast between Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).

In North America (NA) SCE is at average after a thaw at low latitudes, relatively low compared with the last 2 years. But SWE is above average.

Eurasia (EU) SCE is very much below average, mainly due to an absence of snow cover in Europe. But SWE is well very much above average.

In other words, where there is snow its thickness and therefore mass is very much above average.

From now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.

ps: Snowfall on Greenland is also a bit below average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tammukka on January 17, 2020, 09:44:21 AM
Im from Finland and I was amazed about inaccuracies on snow cover data. We have 1/4 country, about 80 000 km^2 snow free, and in nooa and rutgers it seem all snow here.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 17, 2020, 03:21:43 PM
The Snow Cover Extent and Snow Water Equivalent metrics are getting a little crazy.

(I miss having bbr2314 here saying it is heralding a new ice age.)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 17, 2020, 04:23:37 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 16 January 2020

The situation as described in the quotes below has not really changed. i.e. Snow Cover Extent at or below average, Snow Water Equivalent well above average, meaning average snow thickness (where it is lying) very much above average.

The snow drought in much of Europe is impressive (see next post)
Snowfall on Greenland is somewhat below average (see next post)

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 3 January 2020

The situation as described below on 22 December has not changed. i.e. Snow Cover Extent at or below average, Snow Water Equivalent well above average, meaning average snow thickness (where it is lying) very much above average.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current as at 22 December

Interesting contrast between Snow Cover Extent (SCE) and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE).

In North America (NA) SCE is at average after a thaw at low latitudes, relatively low compared with the last 2 years. But SWE is above average.

Eurasia (EU) SCE is very much below average, mainly due to an absence of snow cover in Europe. But SWE is well very much above average.

In other words, where there is snow its thickness and therefore mass is very much above average.

From now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.

ps: Snowfall on Greenland is also a bit below average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 17, 2020, 04:24:55 PM
The snow drought in much of Europe is impressive
Snowfall on Greenland is somewhat below average
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: SimonF92 on January 17, 2020, 04:40:24 PM
An interesting paper on modelling changes in Arctic precipitation over time

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2020, 06:27:55 PM
https://www.wunderground.com/article/storms/winter/news/2020-01-21-persistent-winter-storm-track-not-favorable-snow-south-east-us

illustrates ice deficit at lower latitudes, ice surplus at higher latitudes - the dividing line very much according to the average storm track largely determined by the track of the polar jet stream.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2020, 02:09:16 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 22 January 2020

North America
Despite storms and headlines about Newfoundland under a record blanket of snow,
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is back to within +1SD of average, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia  is impressive, resulting in SCE at more than 1SD below average.
Even more impressive is SWE, steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD above average.

In other words, where there is snow its thickness and therefore mass is very much above average.

From now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on January 23, 2020, 07:32:27 PM
Is it reasonable to assume that high SWE relates to deeper snow ? Could it not be wetter snow ? b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on January 23, 2020, 11:03:05 PM
Could be. That is why they do SWE in the first place.

To determine snow depth from SWE you need to know the density of the snow. The density of new snow ranges from about 5% when the air temperature is 14° F, to about 20% when the temperature is 32° F. After the snow falls its density increases due to gravitational settling, wind packing, melting and recrystallization.

https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2_046155

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2020, 08:31:09 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 26 January 2020

North America
Despite storms and headlines about Newfoundland under a record blanket of snow,
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) has reduced to average, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, though not increasing

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia  is impressive, resulting in SCE at more than 1SD below average.
Even more impressive is SWE, steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe moreabove average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

From now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
[/quote]
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: The Walrus on January 27, 2020, 10:20:22 PM
In all likelihood, the decreased snow cover can be related to the positive AO and fast polar jet stream.  This has locked up the cold air closer to the pole.  This is likely the cause of the colder Arctic and increased sea ice this winter.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 02:57:34 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 29 January 2020


The map shows the low latitudes and Europe where the snow isn't where it should be and where it is well below average depth,

and the higher latitudes where it is at greater depth than usual.
__________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:48:42 PM
I imagine snow cover would be much more variable than sea ice, right?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2020, 07:52:21 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 31 January 2020

North America
Despite storms and headlines about Newfoundland under a record blanket of snow,
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is at  average or even belw, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and increasing

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia  is impressive, resulting in SCE at much more than 1SD below average.
Even more impressive is SWE, steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

Even so, from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2020, 05:46:15 PM
And so it goes on
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 31 January 2020

North America
North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is at  average or even below, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and increasing. (NO IMAGES TODAY)

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia is even more impressive, resulting in SCE at very much more than 1SD below average.

Even more impressive is SWE, still steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

Even so, from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen, but each day the window closes a bit.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
[/quote]
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2020, 07:49:47 PM
I wanted a closer look at Europe Snow - & the penny dropped.

Tealight (aka Nico Sun) has some really good stuff @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/index.html

Shows how really low snow cover in Europe is, especially compared with last year. More than 2 SDs below average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 08:17:12 PM
Declining snowfall in the US - especially fall & spring

https://www.wunderground.com/article/safety/winter/news/2020-02-05-snow-season-shorter-us-climate-central-study

https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-the-case-of-the-shifting-snow

& lots of graphics @ https://medialibrary.climatecentral.org/resources/2020-snow-report
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2020, 02:33:54 PM
Life is getting interesting for this thread. While Snow Water Equivalent continues to strongly increase, it is possible that Snow Cover Extent is reaching or has reached maximum for the winter 2019-20. It is more than 50 days after solstice. So at lower latitudes especially, on sunny days solar radiation is strong enough to melt snow even if air temperatures are at freezing.

So when will Snow Water Equivalent maximum be reached this year?

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 11 February 2020

North America

The snow that last week reached as far south as Texas has melted away, bringing North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) back to average or even below, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and increasing.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive, and looks like continuing for at least the next few days as the jet stream continues to hurl mild air nto Europe fom the West.

SCE is wobbling up and down at 1SD or more below average.

SWE is still steeply increasing and at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average.

In other words, where there is snow its **thickness(?) and therefore mass is very much above average.

Even so, from now to March or even April large snowfalls can happen, but each day the window closes a bit.

** OK - as the season progresses new snow will compress older snow.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date is also somewhat below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on February 12, 2020, 03:31:00 PM
For example, say there is a swimming pool that is filled with 36 inches of new powdery snow at 10% snow water density. If you could turn all the snow into water magically, you would be left with a pool of water 3.6 inches deep. In this case, the SWE of your snowpack would equal 36" x 0.10 = 3.6 inches.

...

To determine snow depth from SWE you need to know the density of the snow. The density of new snow ranges from about 5% when the air temperature is 14° F, to about 20% when the temperature is 32° F. After the snow falls its density increases due to gravitational settling, wind packing, melting and recrystallization.


So density 5% at 10C and 20% at around 0C.
So there is more water in snow at higher temperatures.

So the snow is in an overall warmer temperature range i guess.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 07:48:11 PM

Tealight (aka Nico Sun) has some really good stuff @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/index.html

The Graph Shows how really low snow cover in Europe is, and my guess its going to shrink some more.

The map shows snow extent at lower latitudes is well below average pretty much everywhere in the Northern Hemisphere.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 16, 2020, 08:53:18 PM
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 09:11:48 PM
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?
I think "ice" refers to sea ice.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 16, 2020, 11:39:24 PM
Are the positive ice anomalies showing where freezing rain is occurring instead of snow?
I think "ice" refers to sea ice.
should have put that in stupid questions thread
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2020, 05:07:15 PM
While Snow Water Equivalent continues to strongly increase, it is possible that Snow Cover Extent is reaching or has reached maximum for the winter 2019-20. It is more than 55 days after solstice. So at lower latitudes especially, on sunny days solar radiation is strong enough to melt snow even if air temperatures are at freezing.

So when will Snow Water Equivalent maximum be reached this year?

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 17 February 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) is back to average or even below, while Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and still increasing strongly.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive,

SCE is wobbling up and down at around 1SD below average.

SWE is still increasing, at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average, but maybe a slowing down in the rate of increase.

Where there is snow its mass per km2 is very much above average.

We will probably see some wobbles from now on in SCE and in SWE very soon.
________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland to date remains somewhat below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2020, 12:42:39 PM
When will Snow Water Equivalent maximum be reached this year?

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 19 February 2020


Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive,

SCE is wobbling up and down at around 1SD below average, wih a significant drop on the 18-19 Feb.

SWE has a kink downwards on the 19th Feb - first dip since the snowfall season got underway

Has the max in Eurasia happened?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on February 22, 2020, 09:48:48 PM
Europe's snow cover is way down again. (left-hand scale is extent in 10^6km2)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on February 24, 2020, 06:38:52 PM
Wow, Northern hemisphere snow cover has gotta be approaching 2 standard deviations below normal now.  The albedo difference will now be having a signficant impact. 

Cryosphere Computing now has the northern hemisphere ice extent anomaly at -203,735 km^2 and the snow extent anomaly at -2,673,110 km^2...or a combined anomaly of -2,876,845 km^2.  This will be an interesting number to track this upcoming melting season.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: The Walrus on February 24, 2020, 08:22:53 PM
The Eurasian snow cover is approaching 2 sds below normal.  North America has near normal snow cover, but that is likely to change with the big snowstorm this week.  Overall, the snow cover is below normal, especially considering that the Eurasia snow cover is about twice that of North America.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on February 26, 2020, 09:19:58 PM
Latest from Cryosphere Computing as of Feb. 25th:

Sea ice extent anomaly:  -331,629 km^2
Land snow extent anomaly:  -3,407,589 km^2
Combined:  -3,739,218 km^2
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 01, 2020, 12:36:06 PM
With just 3 weeks to the Sping Equinox, at lower latitudes especially, on sunny days solar radiation is strong enough to melt snow even if air temperatures are at freezing.

So when will warmth defeat cold this year?

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 29 February 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, but the direction of travel is definitely down.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and still increasing strongly.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive.

As for North America, it snows, it melts, but the direction of travel of SCE is definitely down.

SWE is still increasing, at a guess +2SD and maybe more above average, but just maybe is peaking.

Where there is snow - i.e. at high latitudes -  its mass per m2 is very much above average.
Could this slow the final thaw?


________________________________________________
(Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time is significantly below average)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on March 05, 2020, 02:42:58 AM
March 3rd, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -233,268 km^2
Snow:  -2,734,452 km^2
Total:  -2,967,720 km^2

More warm weather in North America and Eurasia on the way...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: wdmn on March 05, 2020, 06:26:24 AM
March 3rd, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -233,268 km^2
Snow:  -2,734,452 km^2
Total:  -2,967,720 km^2

More warm weather in North America and Eurasia on the way...

What are these numbers in relation to? What is the baseline?

Thanks
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 05, 2020, 01:10:58 PM
March 3rd, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -233,268 km^2
Snow:  -2,734,452 km^2
Total:  -2,967,720 km^2

More warm weather in North America and Eurasia on the way...

What are these numbers in relation to? What is the baseline?

Thanks
According to https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent - SCE @ 4 march circa 38 million km2.
Nearly 1SD below average

Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent (mass) - SWE  @ 4 march circa nearly 4,000 km3 (GT).
At least 2 SD (600 km3) above average.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on March 06, 2020, 05:01:04 PM
March 5th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -247,586 km^2
Snow:  -2,852,769 km^2
Total:  -3,100,355 km^2
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on March 08, 2020, 03:05:44 PM
March 7th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -381,036 km^2
Snow:  -2,927,178 km^2
Total:  -3,308,214 km^2

This spring is definitely going to be a test of whether Warm Arctic/Cold Continents (more like 2019) or Cold Arctic/Warm Continents (this spring of 2020 so far) is eventually more damaging to the summer sea ice. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on March 09, 2020, 05:31:32 PM
March 8th, 2020 NH snow and ice extent anomalies:
Ice:  -387,800 km^2
Snow:  -2,707,626 km^2
Total:  -3,095,426 km^2

The weird thing is, NH snowcover in 2012 on this date was still waaaay above normal.  (And sea ice extent was not markedly different).  So I'm not sure how much this data series really matters at this point for predicting eventual September ice extent.  But the lower albedo in the NH in 2020 has got to be having an effect by now.  According to CCI Reanalyzer's 10-day forecast, the above-average warmth will continue along the snow retreat lines in the Eastern U.S. and in Europe and East Asia for the next 10 days, with average 24-hour temperatures being above freezing.  The Western U.S. may get some snowfall, but regardless we will likely be looking at a significant snow extent deficit heading into the spring equinox. 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2020, 10:45:36 PM
A couple of images from Nico Sun's site @ https://cryospherecomputing.tk/index.html

Snow extent drought in Europe really a wow observation.

ps: No a clue why Nico's anomalies should be a bit different from those quoted by Comradez.
pps: Snow mass in Asia and Ameriky still miles above average. https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/nh_swe.png
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 02:42:06 PM
Just one week to the Spring Equinox.
At lower latitudes especially, on sunny days solar radiation is strong enough to melt snow even if air temperatures are at freezing.

The point at which warmth defeats cold this year may well have been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 29 February 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, but the direction of travel is definitely down.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and still increasing but only in fits and starts.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe and lower latitudes in Asia remains impressive.

As for North America, it snows, it melts, but the direction of travel of SCE is consistently down, with SCE more than 1SD below average.

Just maybe SWE is at the peak.

Where there is snow - i.e. at high latitudes -  its mass per m2 is very much above average.
Could this slow the final thaw?


________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 02:46:42 PM
& here are NICO SUN's images, showing
- the ridiculously low snow cover in Europe,
- how below average snow cover is at lower latitudes.

This year is bang online with the predictions of the climate science modellers.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: jdallen on March 18, 2020, 11:07:48 PM
Just one week to the Spring Equinox.
<snip>
Where there is snow - i.e. at high latitudes -  its mass per m2 is very much above average.
Could this slow the final thaw?

<snip>

I suspect that will depend a great deal on local albedo. On Tundra and Prairie, maybe.  On Taiga or Boreal forest, probably not so much.

There *will* be a lot more melt running into Arctic river systems, for longer and possibly sooner, which could have a pronounced effect along the major river deltas.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2020, 08:36:47 PM
Below average Snow Cover Extent now confined entirely to Europe. Asia tiny bit above & North America significantly above average.

But there is a lot of very recent new snow in NA which could disappear very quickly.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2020, 02:00:35 PM
One week after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America.

The point at which warmth defeats cold this year may well have been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 29 February 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, its snows.
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, and still increasing but only in fits and starts.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe remains impressive, in Asia not.
SCE definitely reducing

Just maybe SWE is at the peak.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2020, 10:39:00 AM
Nearly 3 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 7 April 2020

North America

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, its snows now it melts more than it snows..
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, but th decrease has started.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe remains impressive, in Asia not so much.
SCE & SWE definitely reducing.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....
Quote
When in April the sweet showers fall
That pierce March's drought to the root and all
And bathed every vein in liquor that has power
To generate therein and sire the flower;

When Zephyr also has with his sweet breath,
Filled again, in every holt and heath,
The tender shoots and leaves, and the young sun
His half-course in the sign of the Ram has run,
And many little birds make melody
That sleep through all the night with open eye
(So Nature pricks them on to ramp and rage)
Then folk do long to go on pilgrimage...
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on April 08, 2020, 06:33:51 PM
I much prefer the it thus:
"When April with its showers sweet
The drought of March has pierced to the root
etc"
It better captures the middle English rhythms, IMHO.

Back to snow...
Here in the Yukon, we are at 150% SWE across most of the territory.
The melt has not even begun yet- which is pretty late.
The later it melts, the fast it goes.
Watch for wild and wet breakups!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Phoenix on April 09, 2020, 11:41:04 PM
These are some very interesting charts Gerontocrat. The extra 600 km3 in snow water content in N. America might deserve some recognition as an extreme precipitation event lasting over an entire season.

For comparison, Hurricane Harvey dumped about 120 km3 of rain in one concentrated event and my math tells me that 600 km3 corresponds to ~ 1.6mm of global sea level rise. It's a lot of water.

Are there historical charts of NA Snow water content which tell us if this was an exceptional winter?

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2020, 02:59:59 PM
Are there historical charts of NA Snow water content which tell us if this was an exceptional winter?
I have yet to find historical data on SWE - SCE is easy to find - Rutgers Snow Lab et al.

If anybody fnds it - please, pretty please.....
____________________________________________
It is 3 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 11 April 2020

North America


North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snows, it melts, it snows, now it melts more than it snows..
Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) remains very high, but the decrease has started.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe has nearly ended, simply because (apart from Norway etc) there is almost no snow expected, nor is there not a lot left.

In Asia both SCE and SWE declining strongly, though SWE still very much above average..

________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....

Sound the Flute!
Now it's mute.
Birds delight
Day and Night.
Nightingale
In the dale
Lark in Sky
Merrily
Merrily Merrily to welcome in the Year.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: The Walrus on April 12, 2020, 04:10:23 PM
Yes, NA continues to resist spring.  Today’s Easter snow storm will extend the line further above average, and the cold temperatures behind will cause much snow to remain throughout the week.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: wdmn on April 12, 2020, 06:44:14 PM
We've had good melt here on the Eastern shore of Lake Superior after a pretty good snow pack formed this winter (lots of ice layers in it), but we're expecting 20-25cm here tomorrow and up to 50cm elsewhere in the region. Alas... the shovelling is not done.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Freegrass on April 13, 2020, 10:10:50 PM
Oren asked me to move this discussion over here from the melting thread. So here it goes.

I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.

Snow is rarely very thick in flat areas without tree cover. The wind tends to blow it away, but of course there can be very deep accumulations where an obstruction gives some shelter.

The very deepest even snow layer I ever saw was about 2 m, covering a flat valley floor perhaps 2 or 3 km wide. The surrounding mountains were mostsly windswept and bare, so averaging over the entire area would probably be well under 1m.
Well that's why I find it weird that the scale only goes to 72 cm, when there are clearly places with a lot more snow than that. I understand that snow can get blown away, but 1 or 2 cm of snow is nothing. That's 1 hour or less of snow. Surely there must be more?

But I guess the people who made that site must know what they are doing. I just find it odd... Can we say that Siberia is like a desert? With very little precipitation? Is that why I'm understanding snow cover in Siberia and the Arctic wrong?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on April 13, 2020, 10:53:00 PM
I am far from being an expert on snow but here are a couple of links showing actual snow depth in Tiksi (Laptev coast) and Pevek (ESS coast). It's far lower than intuition would tell you about Siberia. In Pevek snow depth decreased from 10-15cm to 0 over the last month, despite max temps never reaching above zero. In Tiksi depth actually increase by a few cm recently when temps edged near and above zero.

Tiksi:
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=21824 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=21824)

Pevek:
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=25051 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=25051)

On the other hand, some random location in Russia (Lensk) is showing much more snow at 47cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=24923&ano=2020&mes=4&day=13&hora=18&min=0&ndays=30 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ind=24923&ano=2020&mes=4&day=13&hora=18&min=0&ndays=30)

Browse the following map, zoom to regions, click on random stations and compare them to the map you asked about. Be sure to check altitude to avoid mountains.
https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en (https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Freegrass on April 13, 2020, 11:10:34 PM
Browse the following map, zoom to regions, click on random stations and compare them to the map you asked about. Be sure to check altitude to avoid mountains.
https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en (https://www.ogimet.com/gsynop_nav.phtml.en)
Thanks Oren! I made it easy for myself, and just checked the snow cover on the ice, and that is indeed exactly the same as on the Reanalyzer image I posted. 20 cm...

So I guess it's probably correct to say that Siberia is a desert in winter time? And all that snow you see in video's of Siberia is just horizontal, blown away snow?

Edit: I did find some places with more snow. Like Brohovo with 120cm, and a few more. But most places have very little snow. I'm amazed! Thank you for that link!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: be cause on April 14, 2020, 12:13:33 AM
Sublimation can be pretty effective in the Siberian and Arctic winter too .. b.c.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: binntho on April 14, 2020, 06:18:07 AM
My experience of snow in Iceland is this: It may snow a lot but if there is any wind at all (which is most ofthe time), the snow gets blown about before settling down and in some cases simply disappearing out over the ocean.

In a snow storm, all the roads close but once reopened, they will need to be constantly cleared for several days while all the snow is still blowing around. Eventually most of the snow "disappears" (blown out over the ocean?) and things settle down.

I used to go skiing in winter, mostly long-run skiing, and even after long periods of lots of snow the average snow cover would be from a few tens of centimetres of snow accumulated in dips and hollows, with bare ground inbetween. And and this part of Iceland is definitely not a desert, recieving upwards of 1000 mm of precipitation every year

In Siberia, the snow can't just "disappear" unless it blows far enough south to simply melt. But average precipiation is very low in many areas, as low as 150 mm per year, so it is easy for me to visualize a tundra where every bump, hillock and tuft of grass is mostly free of snow, with a few centimetres lying inbetween.

If so, the area would be less than totally white in satellite images.  The image posted by Pearscot here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg259675.html#msg259675) shows large areas of northern Greenland with a distinctly yellow brown hue. This is probably exactly the sort of thing I visualize for Siberia.

My Ethiopian internet connection doesn't really allow for satellite image browsing, but I had a (slow) look at yesterdays Worldview and saw what I remember seeing regularly: Most of the "snow-covered" parts of Siberia look deciedly off-color except for maybe a 50-100 km stretch along the coast.

So this white coastal area matches pretty well up with the purplish to orange colors on the snow depth map - i.e. somwhere between 12 and 36 cm. on average. My guess is that snow from further south blows into this area and settles down, Looking at the satellite imagery in Google Maps the same areas seem decidedly flattish, and most of them get very little if any sunlight during the winter months.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Pavel on April 14, 2020, 07:14:11 AM
Significant snow loss is expected on the Barents, Kara and Laptev coasts. The Taimyr peninsula snow will start to melt at least one month earlier than usual, much worse than in 2012
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on April 14, 2020, 07:15:49 AM
I get the feeling GFS is underestimating snow depth in that region. ECMWF is showing much higher depths, assuming I am reading this correctly. Beats me how such a difference is possible, as there are plenty of weather stations measuring actual snow depth.
Note the scales for each model are different.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html (https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html)
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html (https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/irkutsk/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html)

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html (https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html)
https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html (https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/sakha/snow-depth/20200414-0600z.html)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Freegrass on April 14, 2020, 09:16:01 AM
In Siberia, the snow can't just "disappear" unless it blows far enough south to simply melt. But average precipitation is very low in many areas, as low as 150 mm per year, so it is easy for me to visualize a tundra where every bump, hillock and tuft of grass is mostly free of snow, with a few centimetres lying in between.
Sublimation can be pretty effective in the Siberian and Arctic winter too .. b.c.
CHICKEN! And more particularly; The chicken fillet that I left for too long in the freezer. When I open the plastic container, the chicken will be all dried out, and the moisture from the chicken will be stuck on the sides of the container in beautiful crystals. So basically the chicken freezedries, and for some reason that ice moves from the chicken to the container, without wind.

My understanding of this was that  the water is squeezed out of the chicken because ice expands. But I'm sure that some of that is some form of sublimation?

Quote
Can't sublimate without the heat

Without the addition of energy (heat) to the process, ice would not sublimate into vapor. That is where sunlight plays a large role in the natural world. Water has a physical property called the "heat of vaporization," which is the amount of heat required to vaporize water. If you want an exact amount of heat, the heat of vaporization of water is 540 calories/gram, or 2,260 kilojoules/kilogram. That is a lot more energy than is needed to convert water to ice (the latent heat of fusion), which is 80 calories/gram. And, it is also about five times the energy needed for heating water from the freezing point to the boiling point. In summary, energy is needed for the sublimation of ice to vapor to occur, and most of the energy is needed in the vaporization phase. A cubic centimeter (1 gram) of water in ice form requires 80 calories to melt, 100 calories to rise to boiling point, and another 540 calories to vaporize, a total of 720 calories. Sublimation requires the same energy input, but bypasses the liquid phase.

https://www.usgs.gov/special-topic/water-science-school/science/sublimation-and-water-cycle?qt-science_center_objects=0#qt-science_center_objects

There's no sun in my freezer...  :-\

I need to do a lot more research on this, and I will! Because this is interesting! Here's how I see it now in my very own simplistic way...

First of all, there is not a lot of moisture in cold air. So yes, the Arctic is a little like a desert. That's what they call Antarctica right? A desert?

The moisture that does get in, turns into very small ice crystals. I need to forget about snow in Europe. That is "wet and sticky snow". Ice crystals in the Arctic are totally different. Much smaller, and they won't make a sticky snow layer like I know from European snow, right?

So what we got here are small crystals that will be picked up easily by the wind, and get transported over long distances. Some of this "snow dust" might actually go back up into the atmosphere and jetstream I presume?

And when they are blown back into the air, those crystals bang together and become even smaller, and lighter?

I'm understanding now why that scale was in centimeters. I also understand now that I'm reminded that conventional thinking doesn't always apply in the Arctic...

I'll definitely be studying more on this! I love the weirdness of nature...  ;D

Thank you!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on April 14, 2020, 09:27:43 AM
The ice crystals on your chicken emerge due to you opening the freezer door once in a while and letting warm moist air in which then freezes when you close the door. I think this is another phenomenon, Freegrass.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Freegrass on April 14, 2020, 09:33:45 AM
The ice crystals on your chicken emerge due to you opening the freezer door once in a while and letting warm moist air in which then freezes when you close the door. I think this is another phenomenon, Freegrass.
No, that's something else. That doesn't explain why my chicken in a sealed container is drying out. The ice crystals in the closed container do come from the chicken, not from opening the door and letting moisture in.

Edit:
Quote
Freeze drying, also known as lyophilisation or cryodesiccation, is a low temperature dehydration process that involves freezing the product, lowering pressure, then removing the ice by sublimation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freeze-drying

EDIT: I moved this discussion to the newbie thread.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3060.0.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on April 14, 2020, 10:35:53 AM
Freegrass, the chicken is best taken elsewhere.  Google and Wikipedia are your friends, the forum is not a solution for every question.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 14, 2020, 07:10:25 PM
Freegrass, the chicken is best taken elsewhere.  Google and Wikipedia are your friends, the forum is not a solution for every question.

Sounds like a question for the Kitchen Chef.

I mean, I have heard of off topic but WTH.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on April 14, 2020, 07:13:31 PM
The chicken started as a useful analogy but then it took on a life of its own.
It's already been sorted.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on April 14, 2020, 07:16:00 PM
Can anyone with expertise  shed light on the vast apparent difference between GFS and ECMWF snow depth maps? Do they really contradict one another? Does this happen in North America as well? Which one of them is right?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2020, 10:59:37 PM
It is getting on towards 4 weeks after the Spring Equinox, and winter just will not let go, especially in North America. Nevertheless, the point at which warmth is defeating cold this year has been reached.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 15 April 2020

North America


An interesting contrast on display.

North America Snow Cover Extent (SCE) - it snowed, a vast swathe of thin new snow in the Central USA. (Already starting to melt).

But at the same time Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) drops like a stone from its very high levels.

Eurasia
The snow drought in much of Europe has nearly ended, simply because (apart from Norway etc) there is almost no snow expected, nor is there a lot left.

In Asia both SCE and SWE declining strongly, SCE glued to 1 SD below average, SWE a bit more than 1 SD above average.. (no images attached).

________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Sprung....perhaps not in the Yukon?

If ever I saw blessing in the air
I see it now in this still early day
Where lemon-green the vaporous morning drips
Wet sunlight on the powder of my eye.

Blown bubble-film of blue, the sky wraps round
Weeds of warm light whose every root and rod
Splutters with soapy green, and all the world
Sweats with the bead of summer in its bud.

If ever I heard blessing it is there
Where birds in trees that shoals and shadows are
Splash with their hidden wings and drops of sound
Break on my ears their crests of throbbing air.

Pure in the haze the emerald sun dilates,
The lips of sparrows milk the mossy stones,
While white as water by the lake a girl
Swims her green hand among the gathered swans.

Now, as the almond burns its smoking wick,
Dropping small flames to light the candled grass;
Now, as my low blood scales its second chance,
If ever world were blessed, now it is.

April Rise                   Laurie Lee
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2020, 09:58:26 PM
It is one month after the Spring Equinox, and warmth (and rain) is attcking the snow cover, but erratically.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current Snow Cover Extent and Mass as at 21 April 2020

North America


Both SCE and SWE  falling quickly from what seems to be getting to be the new normal for SWE of being very much above the average at maximum.

Eurasia
SWE declining strongly again from a very high maximum, and in contrast SCE, that was  glued to 1 SD below average, has decllined slowly and now blipped up to 1SD above average.
________________________________________________
ps: Snowfall on Greenland (SMB) at this moment in time remains significantly below average.
________________________________________
pps Spring Has Verily Sprung....perhaps not in the Yukon?

Betcha the snow will all be gone at the average date.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on April 23, 2020, 03:41:34 AM
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Paul on April 23, 2020, 09:00:59 PM
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.

COVID19  or no COVID19, you always think this is the year of an BOE. Considering we have not even seen an ice free north pole, I think an BOE this year is probably less than a 1% probability(always bear in mind nothing is impossible).

Regarding the snow cover situation. Quite an odd situation has occurred, is the significant gains on the Asian snow cover an error or genuine? I think a colder plunge has headed that way whilst a warm plunge has headed towards the Arctic but it does look quite odd imo.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Wherestheice on April 23, 2020, 10:15:55 PM
I fear the COVID situation will precipitate a BOE or near-BOE this summer as we deal with the ramifications of a 30% drop in industrial output, or whatever it is, and ensuing fall in particulates / SO2.

I suspect Hudson Bay will be a lone redoubt for the sea ice, even if it still melts entirely, which is no guarantee. This upcoming winter, I anticipate a very lackluster refreeze, but a very severe winter across North America in particular, with a situation worse than this spring (or 2018) unfolding in 2021. I could see Eurasia being dominated by warmth and having another very early spring / summer next year, just like this one, while the remnants of the PV plop into Hudson Bay and stay there into May, June, and July.

I wonder how long the SWE will persist this yr, as well.

COVID19  or no COVID19, you always think this is the year of an BOE. Considering we have not even seen an ice free north pole, I think an BOE this year is probably less than a 1% probability(always bear in mind nothing is impossible).

Regarding the snow cover situation. Quite an odd situation has occurred, is the significant gains on the Asian snow cover an error or genuine? I think a colder plunge has headed that way whilst a warm plunge has headed towards the Arctic but it does look quite odd imo.

I feel like its more like 10% chance of a BOE occuring at any given year now. In 5 years it will probably be 50% in any given year. In 10 years, somewhere in the 90% margin
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: kassy on April 24, 2020, 04:33:27 PM
We have a dedicated thread for BOE.

Meanwhile lets keep tracking the snow cover (it is an important input for succesful predictions).
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 24, 2020, 09:53:11 PM
Thank you Kassy.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 02:51:21 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Looks to me very much like the new normal.

It snows a lot more at high latitudes, and not so much at low latitudes.
Snow melts out more rapidly and my guess is to an average date for complete thaw.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Pavel on April 27, 2020, 09:52:27 AM
Just to compare how Siberia looks today and at the same date of 2012.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on April 27, 2020, 11:41:01 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow melts.

In North America this week looks like warmth building in the West, in the East cool but lots of rain + a bit of wet snow. Melt will accelerate?


Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on April 28, 2020, 01:11:24 AM
12z EURO shows a 6" to a foot or more of snow on May 6th-7th across parts of the interior.

I think my language re: "new ice age" needs revisions. While the Earth will continue warming, it is becoming increasingly plausible that parts of North America could become a new anchor for the NHEM cold pole, or at least the "primary" cold pole, which entails a possible rapid reversion to year-round snowcover and glaciation in a limited region. At the same time, it appears Siberia is only going to keep getting warmer, even if it does snow more, it isn't sticking around in Eurasia anywhere near as much as it is in North America.

<I have approved this just to explain: I will not tolerate 10-day snow forecasts. I will not tolerate idle speculation and discussion of glaciation and year-round snowcover. I will let through actual snow accumulations and their deviation from normal, though Gerontocrat usually keeps us well posted on such. I will let through actual evidence of year-round snowcover, for example, certain locations that have snow lingering beyond what is normal for the location. However, this will be backed by numerical data, such as found in present vs. past Synop reports, and not by hard-to-read huge maps with zero resolutions. I will not tolerate speculation that heavy winter snow will surely linger in summer, unless actual evidence of correlation supporting this is posted. I will not tolerate idle speculation of AMOC disruption due to increased snowmelt and oceanic discharge, unless evidence of said discharge and its deviation from normal is posted. Thanks. O>
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 10:05:17 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

What with it being late spring 'n all, the snow melts.

In North America - very, very large losses in snow mass (SWE) in the last 2-3 days- somebody must be getting wet feet.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2020, 02:38:16 PM
From https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow melts but clings on in Central Northern Canada & Western Siberia.

Looks like warmth reaches Northern climes except for those same areas, that may well be laggards in melting.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on May 10, 2020, 07:17:32 PM
Snow fell in NYC yesterday, tying 1977 for the latest T in recorded history for the Big Apple.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on May 11, 2020, 05:44:26 AM
Snow cover in Alaska has been decimated in the past few days, judging by the snow depth in Bettles Airport, down from 50cm to 11cm. A couple more days and it's gone.

In the meantime, snow cover in various Siberian stations is stable.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/AKMap-doton-Bettles.PNG)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on May 13, 2020, 12:03:11 PM
Snow is very deep still in northern Norway.

The port of Tromso is still reporting  132cm snow lying. It could be there until June.

Quick look back there on previous years reveals (depths on May 12th) :

2020 132cm
2019 0cm (snow gone by 11th May)
2018 0cm (snow gone by 6th May)
2017 37cm (snow went on 21st May)
2016 0cm (snow gone on 2nd May)
 
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 14, 2020, 02:33:34 PM
The environment Canada graphic says Ellesmere island is 100CM+ above normal.

The black and white graphic on the EC website has 1327CM as the peak on the island with most of it between 500-1000CM.

There is no way.  By August most of the island will be snow free except on the glaciers.

So why these wildly off numbers?

It has 50-300CM of snow depth on the Arctic ice sheet centering near the pole with the 300CM depth.

Which is nuts...at the MOSIAC project snow depth is 7-9cm.

Also the Tibetan Plateau is mostly 100CM above normal at well.

That's very unlikely and modis worldview shows no snow there except on glaciers and that is very wet this time of year.

Sounds like these things skew the anomalous positive departures
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 14, 2020, 02:51:55 PM
All we can do is use the data available to us, but maybe with a big "caveat emptor"  sign.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on May 14, 2020, 05:28:40 PM
That EC map is barely readable, I never did like it much. But in coastal weather stations  there's hardly any snow.

In Alert at the NE edge of Ellesmere there's 11cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355)

In Eureka at the western coast of Ellesmere there's 8cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613)

In Isachsen on Ellef Ringness Island there's 16cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 14, 2020, 06:09:14 PM
That EC map is barely readable, I never did like it much. But in coastal weather stations  there's hardly any snow.

In Alert at the NE edge of Ellesmere there's 11cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71355)

In Eureka at the western coast of Ellesmere there's 8cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71613)

In Isachsen on Ellef Ringness Island there's 16cm.
https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074 (https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&ord=REV&ndays=50&ind=71074)

Thanks for the info. 

I don't know how much a place the size of Ellesmere island and the tibetan plateau both showing to have 100CM+ anomalies that are straight off the charts wrong effects the swe.

I'd guess not a ridiculous amount.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 11:20:15 AM
I am sticking with Environment Canada data. Although all models are prone to error, by staying with just the one data set at least there is a chance that the error will be consistent.

https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

North America snow melt still behind schedule by one to two weeks , as is Eurasia melt by somewhat less.  Of interest will the progress of snow cover retreating to the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Central Canada looks like it will be the laggard (again?).

Also attached is the snow anomaly map from Nico Sun
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 01:00:03 PM
Looks like that surge in warmth in Siberia is now doing snow mass a real mischief.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 20, 2020, 10:00:17 AM
So by the end of May it looks like goodbye to snow in the Russian Arctic, & goodbye to snow in North America apart from that obstinate cold blob in central north Canada (& maybe the Russian side of the Bering Strait?).

https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on May 20, 2020, 08:45:38 PM
I wonder if the aerosols + contrails situation have aggravated baseline albedo trends (=warmer Eurasia, colder North America). The year-over-year change for the date in Siberia is......

(https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-6edb6cd04055.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: grixm on May 21, 2020, 08:58:41 AM
South of the Laptev over the past 4 days. Click to play
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 22, 2020, 01:31:58 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/


Eurasia
Goodbye to Siberian snow by the end of the month.
But given the large SWE anomaly at maximum - is this early?

The River discharge data fot the Lena, Yenesei, & Ob could tell us how much discharge above average and the timing therof.

North America - the snow is melting but that big cold blob over & beyond the CAA is hanging on.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on May 24, 2020, 07:39:47 AM
The EURO and CMC both show very cold and snowy airmasses subsisting and then growing across Quebec and the Yukon / Nunavut from D6-10.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020052312/ecmwf_T850a_namer_8.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020052312/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png)

The deeper we get into June and the longer the snowpack is sustained the larger the -anomaly becomes against normal for regions supposed to be snow-free by now.

While we should see snowy and cold conditions linger into June I do imagine they will dissipate for most areas currently impacted by 7/1 across the Canadian Shield -- that means a cold pocket could also feasibly continue in this area in July and August, accompanying an early growth in snowpack by August as most of the rest of the Arctic becomes completely overwhelmed in heat.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on May 24, 2020, 08:00:07 AM
Thanks for the weather updates and analysis. Just please don't start with that old theory. "Early growth in snowpack by August as most of the rest of the Arctic becomes completely overwhelmed in heat" will not happen.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on May 27, 2020, 11:08:51 AM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/

North America - the snow will go but that cold blob over Central Northern Canada is really impressive by its strength & persistence.

Arctic Eurasia - the fast melt of the remaining snow looks set to continue at a rapid pace.
_______________________________________
It looks to me that maybe much of the snow on the Tibetan plateau may melt in the coming 10 days.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Niall Dollard on May 28, 2020, 06:31:26 PM
Uniquorn posted this link (in another thread). It's confirmation of what we had often suspected but it's good to have on the spot reporting, out on the pack.

Also they noticed that first year ice quite often froze to around the same depth/thickness as the multi year parts.

"MOSAiC scientists measured as much as 68 centimetres of snow on multi-year ice, whereas first-year ice gained only a few centimetres. (The reason is simple: snow tends to accumulate on the thick ridges of multi-year ice, but gets swept across smooth first-year ice.)"

https://www.nature.com/immersive/d41586-020-01446-x/index.html
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on May 30, 2020, 09:25:14 AM
The models are showing snow clinging firmly to much of Quebec through day 10. The CMC and EURO both show major new snowfalls in the higher elevations. The heat this week definitely did a number on the southern parts of the province, but it appears most of the pack a few hundred miles and up on north of Montreal has held firm.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2020053000/gem_asnow_namer_40.png)

Volume is now running about 30 days behind normal, aka, our current SWE is roughly equivalent to what would be normal in late April.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on May 30, 2020, 03:41:49 PM
Barents region prepares for flooding after snowiest winter in years

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/05/barents-region-prepares-flooding-after-snowiest-winter-years
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 01, 2020, 06:41:27 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst_outlook/


North America - the snow will go,  even that cold blob over Central Northern Canada looks like shrinking & weakening this week.

Arctic Eurasia - Siberia just too warm for the snow to survive for long.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on June 03, 2020, 04:57:28 PM
One impressive chart!

(https://cryo.met.no/sites/cryo.met.no/files/latest/snowdepth_90450_latest_en.png)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on June 04, 2020, 01:15:31 AM
This is a bit tangential but I think it is not hysterical and reasonably well-reasoned.... I hope? In any case..... RAMBLINGS:

Comparing EOSDIS from today to every year in the satellite record, 2020 is far and away the leader in both extent and albedo in North America, IMO. Not only is it still snowy, in Nunavut, it is still DEEP, sufficiently so that reflectivity remains very high. The only years since 2000 that come kind of close are 2002 and 2009.

With 18 days to go til solstice, this year's snowcover could be a valuable datapoint as we move forward. When is it going to melt completely? As we can see in the data from Tromso, many locations with abnormally high snowcover are now melting out completely. But besides the record depth for much of spring, the melt itself has occurred in an extraordinarily abbreviated window in these locations, as well.

I think the evolution of the climate from 2012 to 2020 makes several observations now evident and important.

1) The PEAK "snow-water-equivalent" in both North America and Eurasia is moving LATER into the year. It is also becoming much HIGHER. Max values are now approaching +50% of 1998-2011 max, however, the discrepancy is especially high in April, May, and now, June, where the differential vs. normal is now oftentimes +100% or higher.

2) When snow melt occurs, it increasingly does so extremely rapidly, even with much higher snow-water-equivalent. With the overall volume and flux of the pack (unfortunately we do not have a measurement on FLUX, this would be very useful!!!), this means that MUCH MORE snow is melting MUCH LATER in the year than during the 1998-2011 period, especially in North America.

3) As Greenland apparently becomes the center of the "cold pole" we are also seeing an increasing shift in snow mass towards North America and, evidently, now Scandinavia. Thus, while these regions are seeing the consequences of greater / later meltwater flux, parts of Siberia are seeing the opposite unfold, where less snow / earlier melt = earlier abatement of meltwater flux = earlier onset of true summer conditions?

From these observations we can ask several questions.

1) How much SWE is necessary for remaining volume in July, and August, and September?

Moderator's Note: In order to ask this question you must first show a correlation between higher wintertime SWE and later melt-out dates. For example, the case of Tromso posted above does not support such a correlation. Until such proof is presented, this is purely speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.

This winter, we saw about 300 KM^3 of volume accretion in November, December, January, and February. March had about 200 KM^3 of accretion, October had about 160 KM^3.

It seems the deeper into WACCY weather we get, the more consistently snow accumulates at a greater pace than normal on the continents (esp North America). However, my big question here, is does monthly accumulation depend on meeting a baseline, and then hit a "sticky" number thereafter?

I.E., once we hit 200 KM^3, we can then rack up gains of 300KM^3 a month until spring.

Does hitting 200KM^3 earlier in the year open the door to FASTER and more consistent accumulations? Why can't October become apart of the +300KM^3 club? Why not September?

Moderator's note: Snow season does not begin in September. In a warming world snow season is not expected to begin earlier, until proof is presented of it actually beginning earlier this is speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.

I have a very strong hunch there is no reason these months CANNOT become part of this club but it hinges on enough volume surviving into the autumn to provide a sufficient baseline for regrowth. Regrowth from practically zero results in months of lag, but regrowth from ~200KM^3 could be sufficient to provide much faster and more reliable gains much earlier in the winter season.

Moderator's Note: There is no evidence that supports widespread snow survival through the summer into the autumn. Until such evidence is presented showing actual survival, this is speculative and considered disruptive to the forum.

Finally, on a more imaginative note, let's guesstimate 15 years into the future. The year is 2035.

SWE peaks at 2,400 KM^3 in North America. That is about 2X a good year 30 years ago. But more important than the raw increase in volume, was the fact that the peak does not occur until April 25th, leaving about 2,000 KM^3 of volume as of May 1st.

Moderator's Note: Such SWE accumulations are idle speculation. Moreover, the following part is even more speculative. Actual observed SWE progression during snowmelt season does not follow your speculations.

That number drops to 1,200 KM^3 by June 1st. The June 1st volume of snow in North America is about what it is at peak February thirty years prior. And it has increased about 12X from the 6/1 volume from 6/1/2005.

600KM^3 remains on 7/1. And 300KM^3 remains as of 8/1. The longer the snow stays in the summertime in substantial volume, the more snow falls atop the existing cover and in surrounding regions, effectively turning winter into a full-year affair in the regions of least melt.

By September 1st, volume has hit a minimum of 150KM^3 in the middle of August, before rapidly rebounding to about 200KM^3.

The next six months all feature gains of 350KM^3 apiece, taking volume to 2,400KM^3 by 3/1/2036. It hits 2,700KM^3 on 4/1/2036. And in 2036, the maximum does not happen until May 1st, at 2,850KM^3.

We still lose 40% of the volume that May. It is 1,700KM^3 as of 6/1/2036, but this year, the VERY late release and very MASSIVE release relative to time of year acts especially protective re: North America. 800KM^3 remains as of 7/1, 400KM^3 remains by 8/1, and from this trend,
it becomes clear how residual anomalies through summertime could have a snowball effect on overall anomalies IF AND WHEN THEY DO SURVIVE.

Moderator's Note: When residual anomalies do survive you can revisit these idle speculations.

There is another caveat here. Will the rate of continental accretion continue to increase during wintertime as the oceans get warmer and the Arctic becomes increasingly ice-free? I think there is an argument to be made that this is also a trend now worsening.

So basically the next twenty years we have a few things to keep closest eye on.

1) Is more snow falling each and every year? (YES)
2) Is the time of year where snow can accrete at its fastest rate INCREASING in duration? (YES)
3) Is the time of year for absolute snow melt (SWE-volume wise) DECREASING in duration?  (YES)
4) Is the rate of snow melt increasing? (YES)
5) Is snow melt shifting proportionately later into the year (YES)

Moderator's Note: Does more SWE in winter mean later melt-out date in summer? (Proof is required). Show that specific locations are exhibiting such a correlation, before you are allowed to continue in such speculation as edited above. Following posts with similar speculative content will be edited out or removed entirely without much ceremony.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on June 05, 2020, 12:43:18 AM
12z EURO = wow for Ontario // + Cristobal!

Also volume going up again temporarily in North America. I will follow up to oren's edits to ^ post in a bit. But the fact we can see a volume increase in North America on June 3rd, which is 18 days from solstice, is pretty incredible.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/na_swe.png)

For reference, we were at about 200KM^3 at this time last year, and only a bit below the current level in 2018, which I believe may have been a record at the time (?) it certainly had cold anomalies over the Shield though 2020 has been worse.

Comparing the May temperature departure map with 2018, I would say that WACC-Y breakdown has accelerated since 2018, with more Poleward heat transfer during the month and more pronounced negative anomalies in the continents adjacent to and over the areas with abnormal snowfalls.

Paradoxically this year the positive anomalies have been positioned in a way to maximize the overall snowfall coverage in the continent as a whole, being centered over the regions with very coldest May normals, and thus not resulting in appreciable melt (and possibly actually enhancing snowfall?). While Quebec was warmer than 2018 in 2020, these areas are still normal or colder than normal overall vs the climate period (Quebec, etc centered around the Baffin+).

It will be interesting to watch the Cristobal situation over the next week. I anticipate we will see most of the snow melt in June if 2018 was any guide, but we may still be in for a few unseasonal surprises yet along the way to zero.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 05, 2020, 12:54:41 PM
Snow in North America showing another blip up - but it will not last.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on June 05, 2020, 04:43:49 PM
Bbr, I dislike 10-day forecasts as a rule, unless you revisit them later and explain if the forecast came true or not. If you continue not to, I may remove them in the near future.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 11, 2020, 01:17:35 PM
https://www.ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

And the snow? It goes.

And the temperatures do not look good for snow survival.
__________________________________________
ps: I asked Waterloo University (who apparently do the website page from Environment Canada data) if they had snow data files we could access.  Got a nice e-mail back but no joy.

Quote
As for table of snow cover and swe, we just have the real-time graph on the website as we pull the information from EC. WE do not archive this information.

I hope this is helpful, please let me know if you have any other question!

Gabrielle
--

Gabrielle Alix
Data Manager
Polar Data Catalogue & Canadian Cryospheric Information Network
Interdisciplinary Centre of Climate Change
University of Waterloo
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 13, 2020, 09:11:00 PM
Looks like the heat has hit the far north of North America - snow mass (SWE) falling like a stone.
Snow cover extent (SCE) will surely follow once snow depth approaches zero.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 14, 2020, 06:32:56 PM
Looks like the heat is continuing to hit the far north of North America - snow mass (SWE) falling like a stone.
Snow cover extent (SCE) follows as snow depth approaches zero.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2020, 01:34:42 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in North America continues a near vertical descent.
Snow Cover Extent (SCE)  decline much gentler - but must catch up soon, because...

warmth continues to build - afternoon temperatures getting really high by the weekend & beyond.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 20, 2020, 01:07:40 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in North America continues a near vertical descent.
Snow Cover Extent (SCE)  decline was much gentler - now catching up.

warmth continues to build - afternoon temperatures getting really high this weekend & beyond.

EURASIA - I attache the graphs for the last time. Why? Because the map shows that apart from some scraps, the graphs are showing snow on the Himalayas & the Tibetan Plateau. This is of great importance for several hundred million people dependent on snow melt into South & SE Asia, but not to the Arctic Snow thread
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 22, 2020, 01:12:42 PM
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow in the far North of Canada continues to vanish. It is interesting that the strongest +ve temperature anomalies are where not so long ago the strongest -ve temperature anomalies were, i.e. Central Canada & the CAA.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 22, 2020, 10:20:08 PM
Which would deserve a headline, or even a note?
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on June 23, 2020, 09:07:54 AM
Above-average snow masses decrease rapidly - flooding expected

There you have your headline. :)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on June 26, 2020, 10:30:31 AM
Which would deserve a headline, or even a note?
  • Snow Melts Rapidly in Northern Hemisphere Summer
  • For Months, Now, Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent and Volume Remain Above Average
Or, you could say ...
"the snow year has been a demonstration of what the climate models predict."
Or you could say ...
"development of the new ice sheet in the far North of Canada has been delayed for yet another year."

Meanwhile.....
https://ccin.ca/ccw/snow/current

The snow in the far North of Canada continues to vanish. The slope of decline reduces as the available snow declines in thickness and extent- The Gompertz curve kicks in. This I presume will reduce the snowmelt run-ff into the channels of the CAA.

The strongest +ve temperature anomalies are still where not so long ago the strongest -ve temperature anomalies were, i.e. Central Canada & the CAA, and looks set to remain high. As the snow cover disappears I guess the albedo on land will greatly reduce , the land will dry out, and therefore heat up quickly.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on June 30, 2020, 07:20:29 AM
Eurasian's SWE decline has slowed dramatically.... North America's has also although it is only somewhat above the blue line.

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/eu_swe.png)

Extent also looks to be at least 1M KM^2 above normal?

(https://ccin.ca/home/sites/default/files/snow/snow_tracker/eu_sce.png)

In either case I am guessing that the Himalayas are to blame for the majority of this discrepancy. Perhaps this has some correlation with the massive floods swallowing parts of China (more snowfall = more snowmelt = more rainfall downwind as well ? (i.e. the airmasses from the Himalayas traversing snow-covered vs barren land would probably have more clouds when they arrive downwind over China from whatever time to whatever time). IDK.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: blumenkraft on June 30, 2020, 09:08:21 AM
There was fresh snow in east Siberia. Should be gone in no time.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on July 01, 2020, 12:31:46 PM
My last post on this thread unless something really, really weird happens.

Eurasia - apart from scraps its all about the Tibetan Plateau & the Himalayas,

North America - it's just scraps. Of interest is the CAA, which other threads look at in greater detail. And with all that heat currently there, won't be much snow left.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on July 11, 2020, 02:52:02 AM
Hudson Bay down to a solitary blip of coverage but 87cm remains at the apex of Labrador:

(https://weather.gc.ca/data/analysis/352_50.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on July 14, 2020, 06:47:03 PM
GFS has some snows into Alaska and other modeling looks like it may be supportive of a wintery intrusion as well.

I have to say that I suspect that as we see increasing +SWE during summertime coupled with dwindling extent, that when we see this anomalous blips of coverage, the albedo gradient vs the nearby open water is likely to contribute to enhanced baroclinic gradients and accompanying cyclonic activity.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020071412/gfs_asnow_namer_29.png)

These minor blips of coverage are certainly effective at reflecting W/M^2, as well!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on July 24, 2020, 07:45:31 PM
Evidently some sensors are experiencing issues... bleep bloop, bleep bloop, lol

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fglobalcryospherewatch.org%2Fstate_of_cryo%2Fsnow%2Ffmi_swe_tracker.jpg&hash=7d01448218c9fe1555d12dad667406c0)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Comradez on August 03, 2020, 11:04:45 PM
Looks like some fresh snow fell on Axel Heiberg Island in the CAA on August 3rd.  It's early enough that it may re-melt again before the freeze season.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on August 06, 2020, 12:39:46 AM
Some time ago I posted regional snow extents, but the topic is kind of lost in the depth of the forum. After some minor improvements and adding two new regions in Asia I created a seperate webpage for the data. It makes it easier to analyse than several different forum posts.

On the snow-cover webpage, featuring snow maps I added the long term NOAA data since 1967. The low 200km resolution looks terrible compared to the new 24km, but the longer timespan is better to judge changes over time.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/Snow-Cover
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/snow-regional
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on August 06, 2020, 03:40:09 AM
Thanks a lot Tealight. Amazing work, and great improvements. Added to bookmarks.

Is there a way in the "snow-cover" section to add data for the current year, and somehow compare with same-date cumulative data from years past? For example cumulative 2020 snow cover days map, side by side with a map from 2012 until the current date.

Here's a good chart showing Northern Canadian snow cover is actually disappearing earlier in spring, compared to past decades.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Tealight on August 07, 2020, 09:32:15 PM
Is there a way in the "snow-cover" section to add data for the current year, and somehow compare with same-date cumulative data from years past? For example cumulative 2020 snow cover days map, side by side with a map from 2012 until the current date.

Sure it's possible, but are you satisfied with only 2012? What about 2016, 2019 or the long term mean? It's either significantly more calculation to be done per day or storage taken if you pre calculate every single day of previous years.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on August 07, 2020, 11:49:33 PM
Good points of course, but I think a 'near real time" snow cover product will be quite useful. Maybe just add an anomaly map of current year cumulative up to to date cumulative, compared to the long term mean cumulative up to current date. Obviously I don't know much about the computing limitations, I just give the "user" perspective.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: bbr2315 on August 15, 2020, 12:59:12 AM
The post-solstice weather pattern shows that this year the snowfalls have been occurring more thoroughly through summertime across highest elevations, and the map is supported by the Canucks and EOSDIS. There are likely substantial areas at highest elevations in NE Eurasia, the Himalayas, and the NW Rockies that retained snowcover through summer 2020.

Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 17, 2020, 07:10:07 PM
Time for a new thread?

Canada starts a new year from Aug 1. Mind you with AGW maybe summer lasts longer, at least at lower elevations.
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: HapHazard on August 17, 2020, 08:19:46 PM
Canada starts a new year from Aug 1.

(https://64.media.tumblr.com/ef1b0fa43e017ce33cbbb3e7b3da96a5/tumblr_oiv32ruCtp1u501aoo1_400.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 18, 2020, 02:58:19 AM
The post-solstice weather pattern shows that this year the snowfalls have been occurring more thoroughly through summertime across highest elevations, and the map is supported by the Canucks and EOSDIS. There are likely substantial areas at highest elevations in NE Eurasia, the Himalayas, and the NW Rockies that retained snowcover through summer 2020.
OTOH, it appears we dodged the impending glaciation centred in Labrador/Quebec again; all the snow there seems to have melted. Phew!
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: gerontocrat on August 22, 2020, 01:00:49 PM
Canada starts a new year from Aug 1.

(https://64.media.tumblr.com/ef1b0fa43e017ce33cbbb3e7b3da96a5/tumblr_oiv32ruCtp1u501aoo1_400.gif)
Title: Re: Northern Hemisphere Winter 2019-2020 Snowcover / Misc Obs
Post by: oren on August 22, 2020, 01:15:18 PM
Yeah, I guess time for a new thread.