Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: gandul on August 23, 2019, 12:03:30 AM

Title: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 23, 2019, 12:03:30 AM
This is a poll I am very interested in. I would prefer you people don’t comment on your vote, just answer truthfully, or ignore it, please. Everything anonymous (or anoni-miss in deplorables dialect).

Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: pietkuip on August 23, 2019, 12:19:02 AM
I am pretty sure it will happen soon.

And I hope I won't die soon.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 23, 2019, 12:46:49 AM
Two things are certain in life.... taxes and death....
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Human Habitat Index on August 23, 2019, 12:50:58 AM
Yes, the suspence is killing me.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 23, 2019, 01:22:11 AM
Well I think a BOE is not likely on a regular basis until late this century if at all, which might be beyond my lifetime (I'll be near 80 by 2050).  And I like being right about stuff.

I've often thought a perfect storm melt year like 2007 could lead to a BOE, but the difficulty in breaking 2012's record is starting to make me question this.  A one off BOE in the next few years would be lots of hype and doom and gloom, and then in following years there would surely be lots of claims of recovery etc.

A BOE event repeated over multiple years within the next 20 years would be a serous concern and mean I've underestimated the situation.  That would then be a case of trying to understand why it happened, and how that changes my expectations for global change.  Is methane venting rapidly from undersea clathrates?  Are temps rising rapidly?  Are other serious changes happening faster than commonly predicted?

I am reminded of storm and cyclone watching on weather forums.  I'm always excited about severe weather events, and kind of hope for these events to get as extreme as possible.  Then there is a bit of guilt because people can die in these events, or suffer serious property losses, and often discussions about how horrible it is that people are excited and hoping for severe weather, and many denials that no one is really hoping/excited, even though many posts seem to suggest that people are hoping/excited.  And I know that I personally am partly hoping/excited.  Maybe I'm sick.  Or maybe I'm just more willing to admit the excitement, and compartmentalise the guilt of the bad consequences under the logic of whether I hope or fear the severe weather event is coming anyway.  AGW has the additional element that we have (nearly?) all contributed, even if only a very small fraction of the total problem.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: be cause on August 23, 2019, 01:32:41 AM
I'm split .. now or never . I chose one .. b.c.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Jacobus on August 23, 2019, 01:57:20 AM
For the event it would be I want to see it, but for the tragedy it will be I am hoping a BOE won't happen. Things are clearly trending towards one in the next few years, so I expect to witness a BOE in my lifetime.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: oren on August 23, 2019, 02:30:00 AM
There's always the hope that a BOE ASAP will jolt humanity into action. As I doubt the jolting and especially the resulting action, I'd rather not ever see a BOE. Although I admit to a bit of horrified fascination when mother nature displays her powers.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Archimid on August 23, 2019, 02:49:33 AM
I'm not a religious person, but I pray that I don't ever see a BOE. There will only be one BOE, the first one. After that there will be blue oceans every summer but they won't be distinct events, only the new normal. As we approach the BOE the global climate will turn to s**t. It is very likely the BOE happens within 2 decades.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: marcel_g on August 23, 2019, 04:31:32 AM
I'm hoping it doesn't happen, but I'm pretty sure it will. The ice is much thinner, younger, and softer/weaker and not nearly as cold as it was recently. The freezing seasons are less cold and shorter, so less ice gets rebuild every year. Even a few years ago there was a Beaufort arm of old ice that didn't melt out. Now it's just not there.

And once the ice does melt out, it just won't recover very well, it just takes too much energy removed to overcome the conversion back to ice. Like the water in your glass in the summer, it stays at 0C until the last ice melts, and then the temperature shoots up rapidly. Once the last ice melts, ocean temps and surface salinity will shoot up, making refreeze a lot more difficult.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: sark on August 23, 2019, 05:16:13 AM
Yes,  I used to think this.  Secretly, around 2005, certainly after 2007.  since it seems people only think in story, my story was that the natural  variability would throw us a wild year like we know it can (from the little ice age, dust bowl, etc... natural black swans to us)

I hoped there would be maybe some Arctic El Nino we didn't know about and the ice would melt out in a flash, and the picture from space maybe enough to change all our minds at once

because it would have been that simple back then.  we'd have loved to build it, too

but that is not what's happening

BOE doesn't even matter.  It's already been tied securely to northern blocking, back when it would just ridge up into the Arctic from one side at a time.  Back when you might think winter polar vortex issues might still be coming at random.  Now it's repeatedly doing something that can only be called "catastrophic" & "present" and is being steered into the story of a mortal catastrophe for a lot of people.

...and what's happened already is why
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: interstitial on August 23, 2019, 06:48:43 AM
I don't hope for a BOE but expect one soon.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on August 23, 2019, 07:09:43 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Ktb on August 23, 2019, 08:11:20 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.


Humanity is a plague. A failed experiment.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: josh-j on August 23, 2019, 08:18:24 AM
I think its more complicated than Yes or No. I choose both yes and no. Human thought is a complicated thing, after all.

I don't know whether it would be better in the end to have such a sudden and sharp jolt to maybe wake the world up, or better to have longer before chaos reaches where I am (after all some places already face this chaos).

There's a part of me which I suppose is like slowing down to look at a car crash - it's just so dramatic and would be an incredibly historic moment. That part of me wants a BOE, and it's the part which is watching keenly each year when the ice gets low. I cannot deny that.

But the other part of me wants a goddamn normal climate back so that our futures can be bright again, and is fearful of what will come of humanity's reckless destruction of natural cycles. That part of me grieves for the animals (including humans), plants, and diversity and beauty of life that will be lost. This is the part of me that looks intently at a humble fly and watches it finding food and cleaning its wings.

At the end of the day, it will happen at some point. I just want to have a future, and I want the same for the rest of us living inhabitants of Earth. Eventually, there will be light at the end of the tunnel; I'm not totally fatalistic. But whether that is within my lifetime or not is impossible to know.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 23, 2019, 08:25:53 AM
Oh, another poll on whether some people benefitted from subprime-crisis.

Voted that of course there are such people. That however does not apply in physical sciences.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 23, 2019, 08:26:51 AM
Agree with josh-j.

I was unable to feel any "hope" for either the one or the other. In the end I went for "ASAP" - perhaps thinking that if it works for removing band-aids, it should work for ice removal (the faster the removal, the quicker the pain goes away).

Being extremely sceptical by nature, I am not expecting a BOE to have any significant or long-lasting effect on political behaviour in particular or human behaviour in general.

Being an eternal optimist, I don't think that a BOE is going to be catastrophical in and off itself.

Being easily bored, I am just hoping for something exciting to happen!
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: nanning on August 23, 2019, 08:35:57 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.

In my case:
My viewpoint, priority Nr.1, is about saving biodiversity, all life on Earth. What will be left of it after we're done?

For that, the ongoing mass extinction and ecosystems- and biodiversity collapses have to stop!
Human civilisation has to stop with its accelerating total destruction as soon as possible.

I think that can only be achieved by external factors, e.g. a BOE. For the sake of all life on Earth.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 23, 2019, 08:40:55 AM
PS I like the graduated ice symbolism that has replaced the "lurker, citizen ..." descriptions.

New ice
Frazil ice
Grease ice
Nilas ice
Young ice
First-year ice

Have I missed any? Wonder what it takes to become Multi-year ice?
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 23, 2019, 08:45:35 AM
I often follow category six and watch hurricanes.
Its exciting  it is also terrifying. I know the storm cause untold misery and feel for those who get hit yet still enjoy watching a storms progression and the live cams when they  impact  .
 
Some goes with a BOE I have kept up to date and lurked on here for years.
I often  think at the beginning of the season is  this the year?
Yet still know a BOE  is not a good milestone to hit .
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 23, 2019, 08:53:21 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.

Some perhaps want (as in “desire”) a blue ocean event. Those here who may, don’t do so because they want it. They most often do so because it is now inevitable in the very near term, and they perhaps believe that a BOE might shock other people into understanding the severity of where we are, the urgency and magnitude of what must be done, and to actually do something meaningful.

However, I think that the problem isn’t that at all. I don’t think anyone on this forum seriously wants or desires a BOE. The folks here understand what a BOE portends. It is the ringing of the bell announcing the beginning of the catastrophic changing of the climate of the world in ways mankind can barely imagine.

Throughout our society and world, people process information differently. We are not all the same. Much of humanity processes information strongly through the lens of emotion, through fear, desire, and other emotional frames.

A much smaller part of humanity uses emotion, but separates that from logic, reason, analysis and the like, and processes primarily through reason colored by emotion.

An even smaller fraction takes this much further and processes information almost exclusively through reason with little involvement of emotion. Others go even farther, and not through choice but by genetic inclination, and simply lack certain emotions. Depending on which emotions they lack, you may find them as firefighters, or as sociopaths; extreme polar opposites. 

The mistake I believe is to presume that when people say, report, suggest, or predict things like a blue ocean event, that that means that they want or desire such a thing. That is a misinterpretation. Commonly that has as its origin the confusion that arises from trying to interpret someone else’s statements based on ones own internal setup. The same happens in reverse of course, with different wording and conclusions, such as someone processing information via logic concluding that another speaker is emotional and therefor irrational.

More fundamentally, the error starts in presuming that everyone else is just like ourself in how they process information, in what their abilities are, and all manner of other ways. So therefor .... they said XXX, which must then mean that YYY.

The BOE is coming. Nothing we (all of mankind) can do now will stop that, shy of some damn fool starting a large nuclear exchange and triggering a global winter for a decade. Even then, that will only temporarily delay the BOE. It won’t prevent it.

You should not read those words as me desiring such a thing. Neither should you read it as me fearing one farther off and choosing to try to scare people. Both interpretations would be and are entirely wrong. I mean by my words quite literally what they say, and nothing more. A BOE is coming. It will arrive very soon. And we now lack the ability to stop it. At the very best, using tragic means, we could delay it.

I believe, perhaps wrongly, that the much worse condition of a full year BOE might yet still be avoided. That will require the immediate concerted and united actions of everyone on earth. And those actions will have to be devastatingly large civilization ending scales of action to succeed.

But, I do not see any chance that humanity will choose to take such bold actions. As a result, I see no chance that we will avoid the much larger catastrophes to follow as a result.

I don’t desire any of those things. Desire has absolutely nothing to do with it.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: mabarnes on August 23, 2019, 08:58:45 AM
Not only NO, but HELL NO.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: AmbiValent on August 23, 2019, 09:01:21 AM
In which interpretation? Essentially no sea ice or just below 1Mkm^2? Extent or area?

I think the ice trend will continue to go down. An equilibrium that would avoid getting a BOE would be nice, but I find it very unrealistic.

I would prefer a real recovery, at least for some years, stalling the process, but if the question is just "Is it just inside or just outside the definition of a BOE?" (and I fear it will be exactly that) then I'd prefer the BOE.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: mabarnes on August 23, 2019, 09:13:10 AM
I wanted to be the first to follow the requested instructions and just answer, not comment ... tho I suppose I broke that rule, mildly.

I don't understand those who desire doom and destruction, some verging on "apocalypse porn" even, when it comes to the ice.  I deal in a social science, so perhaps it's because I've learned the (sometimes costly) lesson - ALWAYS check your Assumptions.

So it seems misanthropic, some comments, wishing for disaster, even if to "wake up the world" ... to the disaster ... which if it doesn't happen wouldn't need anyone "woke" to it ... <continue circular reasoning here>.  Malthus was wrong.  Erlich was wrong.  Yes, SO FAR, for both.  But ... how many societies/cultures have reached steady, or even shrinking, population ALL BY THEMSELVES...?  Are people unaware that this is relatively common in "advanced" countries...? 

I'm hoping I don't see a BOE in my lifetime because that's a rational risk-averse position, even though study of history and technology leads me to be optimistic even if it warms, BOE is an annual thing, and the sea level rises 2 meters in my lifetime ... and covers the 8000 year old coral reefs at Jupiter Beach Florida, which are 2 meters above today's sea level.  It was on a visit to those reefs that I had a mild epiphany:  Things just might work out after all ... again.

Man is a tremendously adaptable species.  Filthy, rapacious, sure ... but adaptable all the same. The Dystopic Vision is fraught with assumptions.  And has ILL EFFECTS on health and well being - that consensus has long been "in" among doctors.  So relax, gents, and have a nice day. 
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 23, 2019, 09:32:18 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: RikW on August 23, 2019, 09:55:01 AM
My first hope is it never happens because I believe it will be catastrophic on the short (first 3 years after it), medium and long term;

My 2nd hope is that if it happens in the near future it will be because of an outlier which should happen soon to still be an outlier, will create havoc on the weather in the months after that and will make sure climate change is happening fast, while being an outlier gives humanity still the chance to change. And I hope the largest impact of it happening (even though I live there) are in North America and Europe, because we are the main culprit of climate change. And the evil part of me hopes it will be mostly in the USA in Republican territory...

My 3rd hope is that I won't see it happen in the near future and me and my kids won't suffer from the impact
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 23, 2019, 10:08:40 AM
This is a poll I am very interested in. I would prefer you people don’t comment on your vote, just answer truthfully, or ignore it, please. Everything anonymous (or anoni-miss in deplorables dialect).

In case I wasn’t clear. I did not and will not vote at all. I believe the question and poll is malformed. It is based on an interpretation of how and why people respond as they do that has little to do with reality.

Because I believe it is malformed, I believe the results will be entirely meaningless.

And also as a result, despite your desire that people simply vote and not comment, the only meaningful vote is the opposite - no vote, and lengthy comment.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: pleun on August 23, 2019, 11:51:26 AM
how can someone malform his own poll ? TS was looking for specific information and gave specific directions on how to get this. Think we should respect that.

now look what happened...
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Adam Ash on August 23, 2019, 12:12:54 PM
The options presented each contain two potentially conflicting or unhelpful statements. 

One may wish to vote 'No' (as I do), but neither 'I'm hoping it won't ever happen' nor 'I don't know...' are useful qualifiers.

I don't want to see a BOE in the same way I don't want to see desertification of most of my country.

No.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: karl dubhe2 on August 23, 2019, 12:28:40 PM
Unless I die in the near future, I expect to see one.   

Hope has nothing to do with it.   The question is 'wrong', it's an emotional question, not a 'scientific' one.    Hope is a form of belief, and that's not something you do with scientific things.   Scientific theories and hypotheses (even vague speculations) are things you accept, or reject.   IMO anyhow.

I don't think that a BOE will affect those who are committed to continuing the burning of fuels, they're making money and are 'religiously' certain that there will be technical solutions to any problems that humans encounter. 

Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 23, 2019, 01:19:38 PM
I'm split .. now or never . I chose one .. b.c.

dito

Since it's unavoidable the sooner the better for two reasons:

I. Wake-Up Call ( not probable, money, power and fame are still stronger ) :-(

II. To know the effects, better sooner than later, because those effects could finally see for a change

Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 23, 2019, 01:44:20 PM
I am continuously surprised that so many posters are hoping to witness a BOE.  Is it the downfall of civilization that they hope to envision or just the novelty of an ice-free Arctic?  Perhaps they just want to see if their predictions of what a BOE will cause in the way of climatic changes come to fruition.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Richard Rathbone on August 23, 2019, 01:53:32 PM
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Niall Dollard on August 23, 2019, 01:59:03 PM
I definitely don't hope to see a BOE in my lifetime.

For the purposes of this thread I'll just call it a "statistical" BOE - ie a BOE with extent dipping  < 1,000,000 km2.

I think there is a pretty good chance though I may see an sBOE some time before 2030 and if things stay pretty much as they are, I'd say it near certainty there'll be an sBOE by 2040.

I am not sure though about the impact this may have -as a wake up call. Will it be all that different a wake up call as 2012 was ?

Even with an sBOE you will get deniers saying "look there is still plenty of ice" and post pictures of the 1 million km2 broken bits.

ASIF members will see it as a huge watershed but unfortunately I think most of the world is not too bothered by statistics, whether it reaches 0.9 million, 1.0 million, or 1.2 million.

In any case, by the time it gets to say 1.2 million and not quite an sBOE, I think we will be in serious trouble.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: TeaPotty on August 23, 2019, 01:59:27 PM
Imagine denying that the data shows a BOE is only several years away.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 23, 2019, 02:16:13 PM
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.

I tend to agree.  A BOE is a symptom and less likely to cause anything extra.  There may be compounding effects due to more open ocean, but it will just add to existing effects.  Also, a BOE will not be permanent, as the open ocean will likely lead to a more dramatic refreeze (at least in the subsequent winter).
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 23, 2019, 02:34:51 PM
I'm not at all surprised of the current result. As the data shows no significant change in the accumulation of ghgs in the atmosphere is happening, hoping for a significant event that might induce a significant response from humanity isn't at all surprising. BOE would be a next in line, now after we've seen some heatwaves or extreme typhoons/hurricanes and somewhat messed up arctic weather has not been considered a sign of the times.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: mabarnes on August 23, 2019, 03:55:44 PM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 23, 2019, 04:46:34 PM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect


Don't think its on topic but here you go: I do not think that there is a mode of locomotion today that will not use _any_ FF in all its lifetime.... Even with your two feet... So the bar is placed _quite_ high...
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 23, 2019, 04:52:31 PM
I said "no comments". By the way, I like the comments. This forum is diverse.

For those who say the poll is malformed or not scientific, I wanted the emotional response of the forum. This construction will do. If one wants to respond NO and the answers don't exactly reflect what you feel, just choose one of the two "NO". Or pass. The same for YES. If the numbers come a bit corrupted that's fine.

Seems pretty divided to me.
And I have a lot of company.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 23, 2019, 05:03:34 PM
The misconceptions involved in the question and the array of potential responses has the same relevance to anything as asking the question:

"Why do you you hope that unicorns will successfully rise up and take over Mars?"

A. "Because unicorns are fluffy descendants of wombats."
B. "Because I want to see an economic recovery in my lifetime."
C. "Because yellow is the most perfect color."

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Yossarian80 on August 23, 2019, 05:31:58 PM
In order to “hope” for something you need a reasonable chance of that thing happening.  I don’t sit around hoping for things that are near impossible...doing so is the equivalent of emotional suicide; not good for mental health.  I would be blown away with surprise if we make it past 2050 without a BOE... seems almost impossible and not really worth “hoping” for unfortunately. 

I’m starting to think there’s a less than 50% chance that we even make it past 2030.  I still voted no, but that’s my main issue with the poll... no reasonable “hope” left to avoid many climate impacts and effects, and this is one of them.  We are better off preparing than wasting time and emotional energy hoping for the near impossible.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: jplotinus on August 23, 2019, 05:32:26 PM
The action associated with the word “hope” centers in the desire component of human perception. I consider “desire” to be an emotional response, calling for consideration of how one feels about something or another thing.
For me, sea ice monitoring is not at all centered in emotion; rather, what I do here is utilize  as best I can the function of reason. There is reason to assert that a BOE is possible. All one has to do is observe Juan C Garcia’s daily posting of jaxa sie data and in particular the component of that posting listing the 1980s ave, the 1990s ave, the 2000s ave  and the 2010s ave. In so doing, one has reason to think (not hope) that a BOE may occur within the lifespan of people living now.

I will conclude by observing that it can be misleading to frame a question that conflates or confuses emotion for reason.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: pearscot on August 23, 2019, 06:12:12 PM
In my opinion, I don't foresee the rate of arctic sea ice decline to continue at linear rate - I think it's going to be a negative logarithmic function to which *some* ice will always exist, but not much.  I'm the last person on earth who needs to be educated on the vast array of unintended consequences of climate change, but I think a BOE, insofar as our climate is transitioning to the new holocene epoch, is still many years off. That's not to say that what occurred in 2007, 2012, and perhaps this year, are 'one off' events. I think that the system at large will continue to intake vast amounts of energy deep below the surface and given the exact 'perfect storm' of conditions we may witness a BOE within the next 20 years.

New features this year, such as the massive crack above Greenland to me really pique my interest and at the same time show that what was one the safe area of old ice no longer exists.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: AmbiValent on August 23, 2019, 06:25:20 PM
A BOE is pretty irrelevant. It will be small beer compared to all the other stuff that happens as and when enough CO2 for a BOE to be possible accumulates. A BOE will simply be a symptom that we are living in a 2-3C world, it won't actually cause anything extra to happen in that world.

If we get there under BAU, I hope to live that long, but I also hope BAU dies in the next decade.
I fear that while a single BOE just barely fitting the requirement might not mean much "extra", but the less sea ice there is to melt, the more we will move from an Arctic that spends the summer around 0C to a warmer one - and some regions will make the transition earlier than the rest. Or rather, we have clearly left the start of the transition behind us and are slowly on the way to the other side.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 23, 2019, 06:29:59 PM
For these past three decades of battling to have the 'data/facts' heard above the drone of the Denier it has become amply clear that;

1/ The 'Denier' won and put us beyond avoiding AGW issues and into a time where we ought expect 'Black Swan Events' driving climate cascades that will impact all

2/ Humans are hard wired only to 'react' to clear and present danger to their own lives.....Fight or flight (I know there are exceptions but then do they not go to proving the 'rule' true??)

So I am now ,grudgingly, of the opinion that we need a global climate 'Hit' to raise the 'awareness' of the folk up to the dangers we all now exist within?

Our job (those who fought the good fight these past decades?) is to be there 'For The Many' when they suddenly realise the peril they face?

To 'bring them up to speed' on just what we have unleashed and might 'expect' to see?

A B.O.E. may well prove to be such an event that , unlike the Brazilian rainforest, will not spend 16 days effectively missing from the MSM until 'Social Media' (US??) forces them to run a piece on it?

I know it is a dower outlook but there you have it!

Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 23, 2019, 06:40:58 PM
I'm with Sam, and cannot vote in this poll.  And I love polls - my wife cannot believe how happy I am to answer political questions on the phone.  Once when visiting in Brisbane, Australia, my host got a polling call and said, "Nobody here wants to respond," and hung up, too late for me to volunteer.  :'(  Push polls are sometimes a bit tedious, so I just think about how the poor smuck on the other end of the line gets paid for completing a call, and I try to hang on.
Sorry, Gandul, but you are not a smuck!  ;)

My being certain a BOE will happen as a consequence of the CO2 already emitted (and in the atmosphere or oceans, etc.) (and utterly inevitable with BAU as we are experiencing it), I cannot reasonably "hope it won’t ever happen" and cannot claim "I don’t know if eventually it will happen".  And I certainly don't "hope" for the event, soon or otherwise.  As others have posted, I think a BOE will be one week's news, to be followed by a mass shooting (My hometown has had two this year; how many has yours had? "Squirrel!") or a superstar's wardrobe 'event' (Did you see that!  :o).

I try to keep hope in the arena of affirmation.  Paraphrased,
Quote
Those with hope will renew their strength.  They will soar with wings like eagles.
Isaiah 40:31
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 23, 2019, 06:48:10 PM
I'm with Sam, and cannot vote in this poll.

+1

Sam is such a clever and knowledgeable person, people should read all his posts!!11!
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: nanning on August 23, 2019, 06:59:48 PM
^^

Hi Tor, from the paraphrase, would it be possible for you to define "hope"? :)
I don't know what it means, does it mean the belief that things'll get better?

edit: with 'witness' I assume it means 'observe' via technological media.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 23, 2019, 07:27:38 PM
Gandul (and others),

The crux of the difficulty I think we are having in society at large, and here as a microcosm of that, is a fundamental difference in how we each process information. For some, emotion plays a (if not 'the') central role. For others logic and data play the central role. For others yet it is a hybrid of these. And no doubt there are still others that do not easily fit this simple mental model.

Crudely (and wrongly), emotion is often seen to be focused in the right brain, where information seems to be processed in a manner that is very centered on the now, the local, the self, the family, ...  Language seems to be processed in a nonlinear way such that word order is unimportant, and negation (among may things) does not work. More often, communication as a larger set of language seems to focus on symbolic uses, and to heavily rely on relations and relationships among people and things.

Also crudely (and wrongly), logic is often seen to be focused in the left brain, where information seems to be processed in a manner that is very much centered around structured complex organizations of ideas, temporally segmented (far past, past, near past, present, near future, future, far future), spatially segregated (near, close, distant, far, irrelevant), prioritized (life threatening, critical, dangerous, caution, wariness, null, safe, irrelevant), and others ...  Language works as expected with negation and degrees of value.

This simple model is not correct. It is often useful as a crutch.

Within each of us, these two hemispheres operate semi-autonomously. Each is effectively a separate person, a separate identity and a separate self. The primitive brain adds a third identity to the mix and adds difficulty to the model. So too do other aspects, such as the spine, the physical heart, the gut and others.

In logical and relational processing, the two hemispheres and the primitive brain seem to dominate in importance, with the two hemispheres taking the lions share of that.

Both hemispheres take full ownership and responsibility for every thing the body does, thinking, believing and feeling they are the whole of the body and mind.

The difficulty we seem to be having in our discussions (here and in society) seems to be a difference in the relative weight given to which of these players is in control and dominates.

And just as in the 'mind', this leads to no end of confusion and misunderstanding.

Gandul (and others who want to chime in), you seem to process heavily using emotion as your basis. What brought you to the issue of climate change and the arctic ice? What motivates your concern(s)? What language grabs you to want to act?

I ask these questions sincerely. In the larger world of science (particularly of climate change and the arctic ice), many of us have difficulty understanding how to reach the broader parts of society who do not live enmeshed in data and science, and who are not primarily driven by logic. For me (and no doubt many of us), it is perplexing and baffling why the catastrophes we so clearly see crashing down on us fail to catch the attention of most people, let alone motivate them to urgent action.

Can you share any insights from your perspective and world view?  And again - mind you - my question is not about the facts. It is about motivations.

Thank you

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: petm on August 23, 2019, 09:27:08 PM
For me it's simple: Humans have proven incapable of sufficient self control to forestall ecological disaster. So, Mother Nature will have to do it instead, and the sooner she does (incl. BOE), the less the long-term damage.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 23, 2019, 09:37:06 PM
I expect a BOE to happen, but hope it never does.   "Hoping" was the key word in the poll for me....I never hope for a disaster, even when I expect it to happen.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: HapHazard on August 23, 2019, 09:47:14 PM
···
···

Off the top of my head. Dunno how to vote, honestly.  :o
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 23, 2019, 09:52:16 PM
First I thought the same like Tor said but then it's about the word hope that should be replaced. of course i don't HOPE in the way to find it a great thing but then most understand how it was meant.

If we want to know the sad truth, we only have to watch what humans with free choice are eating.

It's obvious that an entity that is permanently and knowingly poisoning it's own body for reasons like fun and comfort, will never ever come close to what it takes to:

I. keep the next greater body (i.e. a marriage) healthy

II. Of course even less so te next greater body, i.e. family as a whole

III.Even less so of course all greater bodies like communities, countries etc.

IV. And far from coming close to keep an entire planet healthy.

It's impossible because humans are ill wired and the problem starts at the lowest possible
level that is to keep themselves healthy with a little effort that pays of so well.

And then there are some who indeed succeed in keeping their body healthy but
get so dogmatic in the process that their mind is suffering with an often even worse outcome.

Looking at things how they are and how they were described at all times, no matter which
philosophers or spiritual leaders with clean intentions, it's a systemic issue and only
a proper ethic, self-confidence and mental power and stability can in very rare cases
overcome.

I recommend to everyone, no matter what they believe, read the new testament and other worthy books of course, it's all described therein since thousands of years and no-one with a genuine
interest to understand how nature and humans especially "TICK" can say he wasn't told.

Instead most humans with the necessary capacity lose themselves in petty nitpicking, narrow mindedness, preferring to be the best in something instead of knowledgeable in most things and
talk about irrelevant details all their lives instead of tackling the root problems.

Envy, eternal competition, greed and such are the roots of all evil and AGW and other horrible results are only symptoms of the very same mental illness that is based mostly on lack of ego-control, boosted by too many who acclaim all kind of non-sense and bash unpleasant truths.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 23, 2019, 11:41:49 PM
The misconceptions involved in the question and the array of potential responses has the same relevance to anything as asking the question:

"Why do you you hope that unicorns will successfully rise up and take over Mars?"

A. "Because unicorns are fluffy descendants of wombats."
B. "Because I want to see an economic recovery in my lifetime."
C. "Because yellow is the most perfect color."

Sam
Ok, lol.
Fair enough.
I won’t change the poll, though. Thank you all that participated or commented (so far).
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sahelian on August 24, 2019, 12:51:30 AM
I'm surprised there haven't been comments from people who hope for a BOE because they think it'll be beneficial. Less ice should mean higher Sea Surface Temperatures, which should boost the anomalous heating of the Northern Hemisphere, which should drag the monsoon further north. There seems to be a teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and North Africa such that the extent of the former correlates to the aridity of the latter. An ice free Arctic should mean a far wetter and more liveable North Africa.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: sailor on August 24, 2019, 01:01:29 AM
One is human and may have a morbid curiosity on Arctic gradual or abrupt loss of ice; it’s also fascinating to watch all the physical processes it involves. OTOH I wish AGW didn’t exist. So, I can’t really answer.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: ShortBrutishNasty on August 24, 2019, 02:44:59 AM
I've only read a sampling of the responses.

My response is that the question posed is not productive nor discriminating.

Next.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 24, 2019, 06:54:19 AM
^^

Hi Tor, from the paraphrase, would it be possible for you to define "hope"? :)
I don't know what it means, does it mean the belief that things'll get better?

edit: with 'witness' I assume it means 'observe' via technological media.
Good question, Nanning.  hope = (something like) longing with a spiritual dimension. As in "hope in the Lord", "trust in the Lord" (other translations of Isaiah quote).  Maybe also (or another way of saying it) a 'not quite earned' dimension.  "Hoping your friend says 'Yes'" has a longing aspect and a need-for-afirmation aspect.  "Hoping a solution to the problem will emerge" is a request for revelations not quite earned, requiring insight or inspiration on top of hard work.  (With its fruition, something like some of Newton's and Einstein's revelations, but I think we all experience this occasionally.)
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 24, 2019, 07:12:01 AM
Difficult word that. What does it mean in e.g. "Land of Hope and Glory"? (I'm assuming that Hope and Glory are not two ladies of that Land).

Other ways to use the word "hope" could be "inspiring hope", or the three theological virtues of "faith, hope and charity".
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 24, 2019, 01:12:36 PM
Difficult word that. What does it mean in e.g. "Land of Hope and Glory"? (I'm assuming that Hope and Glory are not two ladies of that Land).

Other ways to use the word "hope" could be "inspiring hope", or the three theological virtues of "faith, hope and charity".
Hope is the word because it implies not only expectancy but also desire. It is also what causes the poll to be incomplete or flawed as people pointed out, because may expect one thing and desire another. Or may desire conflicting things, because desire is irrational.
This poll is not as the usuals here, but I'm happy with the engagement and with the results.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 24, 2019, 01:14:15 PM
Imagine denying that the data shows a BOE is only several years away.
Which data are you referring to, specifically?
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Stephan on August 25, 2019, 11:50:43 AM
I voted for "Yes ASAP".
Not because I'd like to see it happen (so also for me "hope" is a wrong word to describe it) but the public will once more see in how dire state our planet is. And this message to all (including AGW deniers) is essential and it will push the community fighting against climate change forward and may lead to further actions of the governments.
The same public attention may arise when atmospheric CO2 will reach 420 ppm, because it is exactly 50 % more than "preindustrial". 420 ppm will be as damaging to the climate as 419 ppm, but 419 ppm will only be noticed by experts and people like us in ASIF.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: bluice on August 25, 2019, 01:16:41 PM
Stephan, I feel that’s wishful thinking. IMHO people will demand action only when they personally feel the negative effects of AGW, and even this can be delayed by ideology.

The people in power OTOH will respond to these demands when their position in power is directly threatened, meaning economy must be hit by AGW or elections will be lost by not taking action. Undemocratic countries have somewhat different mechanisms, but the fundamental logic remains the same.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 25, 2019, 02:21:28 PM
Stephan, I feel that’s wishful thinking. IMHO people will demand action only when they personally feel the negative effects of AGW, and even this can be delayed by ideology.

The people in power OTOH will respond to these demands when their position in power is directly threatened, meaning economy must be hit by AGW or elections will be lost by not taking action. Undemocratic countries have somewhat different mechanisms, but the fundamental logic remains the same.

This how you put it is exactly how it is.

Nevertheless, with each big event that frightens each time a few more people, we are slowly but surely to the historically proven point of public momentum of 27-29% of the population, where the positions of the people in power and the system as it is at a given moment is indeed endangered.
This means that one of your correct verdicts will then happen, while the other, that sufficient
people get afraid and feel threatened by what they see coming, happens some time before
that, it's basically the base of the later danger for the governments.

In fact it won't take that much anymore, look how more and more people vote (Trump, Orban, Salvini etc. etc.) a clear sign.

What it will take is a trigger. To imagine how this could turn out, we only have to imagine what happens if the shelves in supermarkets remain empty for some time and when ATMs won't spit money for some time.

It happened already on small scale in smaller countries, once it will hit larger nations the sh... will hit the fan for sure.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 25, 2019, 03:04:37 PM
Climate change, by itself, does not rank at the top of the voters priority list.  However, since the economy has always ranked near the top, any financial demise as the result of climate change would have a major impact.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bankrate.com/surveys/presidential-election-survey-july-2019/amp/

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/596623/
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: bluice on August 25, 2019, 06:54:31 PM
Philopek may be I misunderstood you but people don’t vote populist right because they are worried about AGW.

But it’s true that at least in Europe people are becoming increasingly anxious about climate. A big reason for this is the personal experience of heatwaves this summer.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 25, 2019, 07:13:21 PM
Philopek may be I misunderstood you but people don’t vote populist right because they are worried about AGW.

But it’s true that at least in Europe people are becoming increasingly anxious about climate. A big reason for this is the personal experience of heatwaves this summer.

Yes, misunderstanding, i was referring to that politicians only will react once their power is in danger and people only will react once their comfort-zone is endangered and hinted at that the political and economic developments are full of signs that this will happen sooner than many believe.

The voting habits is just one of them.

All this topics fill entire bookshelves, study and history wise and it's often difficult to touch
something with a restraint in space.

Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various repating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently. My apologies for not being more clear and thanks for giving me the opportunity to shed a tiny bit more light to my intention.

:D
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2019, 08:43:27 PM
Yes, and before 2030 because
- there is some sour satisfaction in seeing what you believed was going to happen - happen,
- if it happens after 2030 statistics suggest I will be either doo-lally or dead.

No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,
- I attach my posts "epitaph: damn, I wanted to see what happened next."
The events of which a BOE will be a part and the events after that will not be good to see. The motivation to keep soul attached to flesh, often a bit weak, will be weakened more.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 25, 2019, 08:55:49 PM
epitaph: "damn, I wanted to see what happened next."

For me, this is one of the most tragic sentences ever expressed in the history of mankind...
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 25, 2019, 09:04:42 PM
Yes, and before 2030 because
- there is some sour satisfaction in seeing what you believed was going to happen - happen,
- if it happens after 2030 statistics suggest I will be either doo-lally or dead.

No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,
- I attach my posts "epitaph: damn, I wanted to see what happened next."
The events of which a BOE will be a part and the events after that will not be good to see. The motivation to keep soul attached to flesh, often a bit weak, will be weakened more.

You say it ;)

Similar to the return of Christ, Armageddon, Apocalypse and the likes.

Only that this will indeed happen since I will see my 100's birthday can't dodge the bullet probably.

[JK]
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Cook on August 25, 2019, 09:56:44 PM
I hope to see a BOE event ASAP because it will help kick humanity into action.

I hope we are mature enough to tackle climate change in a compassionate and productive way. Compassionate in the sense that people who are negatively effected are helped, and productive in the sense that the benefits, yes in spite of all the negatives there are in fact benefits, are recognized and utilized in a way that helps mankind, especially those who may locally lose land and the means to support themselves.

Finally, I pray that we figure out the basic fact that our planet is over populated by human beings and that we have an obligation to future generations to prevent mass extinctions and to protect habitats.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: petm on August 25, 2019, 09:59:33 PM
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

Quote
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Or,

Quote
“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”

-- https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

 ;)
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Threebellies on August 25, 2019, 11:23:44 PM
Usually those who consider history as a kind of script for the future, mostly due to various rep[e]ating patterns, will understand the short form and sometimes the short-form is too short like in this case apparently.

Quote
“History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes.”

Or,

Quote
“History,” it has been said, “does not repeat itself. The historians repeat one another.”

-- https://quoteinvestigator.com/2014/01/12/history-rhymes/

 ;)

Longtime lurker here, I thought it might be relevant to chime in to this discussion. Usually I don’t necessarily have incredibly insightful things to add to a board about ASI melting and the scientific discussion of that. Often, a reader finds well constructed comments, paper citations, objective, rational discussions, data, and well moderated delivery. It is appreciated. I highly doubt ASI loss, climate change, or the sixth mass extinction are areas which are really up for debate in here, for the extreme majority of participants, and perhaps even avid followers such as myself.

It therefore is a welcome break from the b.s. discussion which goes on in society at large. The discussion in society at large absolutely contains all of the emotional baggage of everyone and what the consequences of these events are. These people are in here studying it objectively and rationally.

It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

We’re lucky such a board remains public so that these kinds of folks’ discussion and 5 cents isn’t locked down, charges for, and moderated even more heavily so that content contributors and important discoveries aren’t locked away for their own protection from the general public of people who armchair question the moral motivations for these discussions from a point of view which is utterly irrelevant to the data which is observed.

I once worked in a plant virology laboratory, and we took bets sometimes when we’d attempt a quantitative analysis of some plant virus protein, how much might be in given regions and various plants. Was that morally questionable because we were investigating the nature of plant viruses?

We must be careful and appreciate this resource for what it is and not rush to put up such things which may give pause emotionally to the folks who put in a lot of effort for content. Waiting all hours of the day and night for data to come available from various buoys, international space agencies, ocean administrations, and published works in reputable journals. The data analysis performed on this site is sometimes used by media outlets even when talking about stories (often without due Citations!), hell there is another thread where it looks like /u/unicorn may be identifying previously unmapped, unnamed shoals as things melt out.

We need resources like what these fine ladies and gents here do, day in and out. A truthful objective resource based on data and not opinions is one of the most critical hangout spots I can imagine for Arctic climate geeks or just climate aficionados and professionals the world over. This is a treasure which would benefit if more important people paid attention to it, instead of attempting to shoot the messenger or morale the community out to be a bunch of doomsdayers or collapsers. It isn’t fair to the data or the planet either.

Thanks to you for you good posts over the time, PETM.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: petm on August 25, 2019, 11:56:41 PM
It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

Hi Threebellies. Excellent point and overall post. Glad you joined the conversation. :)
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Villabolo on August 26, 2019, 02:24:21 AM
I'm curious why so many ppl want a BOE as soon as possible.
Equating hopes and things to want. I might want a way to travel by a vehicle that's not using any fossil fuels in all it's lifetime, but there's no hope I could afford it LOL.

Here ya go ...  8)

https://www.equine.com/horses-for-sale/thoroughbred/9d04a660-8-yo-thoroughbred-gelding-low-level-hunter-prospect

There isn't enough feed for all the horses a nation would need in order to retire automobiles. I've posted this before but, it bears repeating:

https://sunbicyclesnashville.com/trikes.php

Slap an electric hub motor on, and you can go far.

My apologies to the OP for this digression.

And yes, I hope to see a BOE within my lifetime. Preferably in ten years. It's going to happen anyways, and we'll be unprepared for it no matter how long it takes.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: oren on August 26, 2019, 02:40:46 AM
It is not pretty if you think about it, no. But do we hold the heart surgeon guilty of maintaining a gore porn fetish necessarily because she displays an interest in cardiac and or pulmonary system sciences? Is the detective or investigator held morally responsible for trying to understand the minds of criminals? No of course not, society needs them too.

Hi Threebellies. Excellent point and overall post. Glad you joined the conversation. :)
+1
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: nanning on August 26, 2019, 07:38:44 AM
<snip>
No, because
- then much of life on earth will really be waiting for extinction,

Dear gerontocrat, I don't understand that.
Can I ask you if you agree with these considerations?:

The longer the BAU: the higher the GHG level, the more habitat loss and poisoning.

After BOEs etc ..--> Collapse of anthropogenic destruction: No more BAU -> GHG levels off. Habitat loss stops. Poisoning stops. (OK we might get nuclear radiation but that'll probably happen anyway)

The longer the BAU: the greater the total mass extinction; the lower the remaining biodiversity.


If you're able to hold on for another 10 years, I'm certain you will not be disappointed. You probably don't want to see 'what's next' after that time.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 07:48:03 AM
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 26, 2019, 10:25:00 AM
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

I don't think anyone "hopes" for that but then a collapse and related reduction in earth population is part of the natural corrective, no matter why, when and how it happens.

Some people like myself see and know a bit about the regulative mechanisms, the ways how nature
as a whole regulates things and a huge and nasty collapse will and has to happen.

This does by no means imply "hope" for it but it's kind of discussing the inevitable.

To anyone who is trying to refuse some future facts, based and past facts and sheer logic as well as laws of physics and mathematics, i recommend to read a bit in history books to get the bigger picture, no details, and then consider who survived such collapses and prospered thereafter (groups, not individuals) ?

Those who saw it coming and/or happening and took measures and you can be sure that before they (the survivors) took action they discussed things and at times even fought over solutions, similarly like we do here sometimes :D :D
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 11:42:31 AM
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

I don't think anyone "hopes" for that but then a collapse and related reduction in earth population is part of the natural corrective, no matter why, when and how it happens.


Well, you see, this is where I totally disagree. I do not think that a collapse and a reduction in earth population can be consideret in any form as a "natural corrective".

And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?

This is just pure nonsense.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: petm on August 26, 2019, 01:43:51 PM
The main problem is that there won't be enough food. Societies do tend to collapse when that happens.

(Not caused (only) by a BOE, of course.)
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Avalonian on August 26, 2019, 02:23:28 PM

Well, you see, this is where I totally disagree. I do not think that a collapse and a reduction in earth population can be consideret in any form as a "natural corrective".

And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?

This is just pure nonsense.

From a palaeoecological perspective, I do tend to agree with Philopek here, and with Nanning in general... I try to consider the biosphere as a whole, rather than just humans, in my moral judgements, even though others will have different views on that. (That's fine, so long as nobody goes all moral absolutist on us..!) Regarding collapse: we have seen what happens when conditions change dramatically in geological time, such that the resources that used to be in place are no longer available: mass extinctions. We also know what happens when a species booms, and uses all the available resources in its environment: an inevitable bust, often taking other things with it due to the radical exploitation of resources. From an ecological perspective, humans are so far out of balance (Earth Overshoot Day, anyone?) that we're having to do all sorts of things involving unsustainable land use. The difference between us and locusts is that we get to affect the whole world. That's not a moral judgement; just an ecological observation, based on my understanding.

As for preparing for collapse, and trying to mitigate it by advance planning (while trying to prevent it where possible, of course!)... I don't see that we have any moral imperative to do anything else. As threebellies says, sometimes society needs people who have a sense of humour or a moral compass that we find distasteful, because they're the ones who can make a difference to the chances of survival of the rest of us. And if there is to be a collapse... well, I too can hope to be among the survivors, without wishing any ill on anyone else. That's just human nature, and blaming people for doing what they can to give themselves and their communities a chance a distraction from the real issue, IMO.

Oh, and since everyone has been commenting  on the poll anyway ( ;D ) I went for asap. Similar reasoning to Nanning; the longer this protracted but gentle decline goes on, the less likely governments (and people) are to act in the radical ways that we need them to. We need urgency, and we need it yesterday; a BOE is one of the things that might just generate it.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 26, 2019, 03:07:58 PM
In conjunction with Avalonian, I tend to agree in general.  The big question is what is the carrying capacity of the earth (for humans)?  Edward Wilson wrote in his 2002 book, "The Future of Life," that the Earth could support about 10 billion people.  Others have argued that it is higher or lower.  As opposed to other life forms, which are totally dependent on the earth for support, mankind has altered the environment to support more life than would otherwise occur.  Some have argued that this will lead to more sudden and violent collapse, will others claim that this is sustainable.  Patricio Grassini has argued that crop yields have already begun to decrease.  Others have argued that sustainable agriculture can ensure future food production.  Difficult to say which way this will go.  All told, agriculture will determine the future of mankind.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 26, 2019, 03:12:51 PM
Civilisation is not going to collapse from a BOE. And I for one do not believe that the current trend towards higher temperatures is going to cause any permanent collapse of civilisation.

But what worries me way more than any putative "hope for BOE" is the apparent "hope for civilisational collapse" thinking I see expressed here. Do people really hope for a civilisational collapse, with all the human suffering that implies?

Binntho,

Once again .... the discussion here is about the impacts that catastrophic climate change will have. Prognosticating on those based on the science is -not- hoping (an emotional state) for them to happen.

A BOE in and of itself won't do anything to collapse civilization. However, the knock on effect of the absence of ice (the cold pole in the Earth's atmospheric and oceanic systems) will have on the thermodynamics that drive the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans will lead inexorably to the destruction of civilization.

This is not a hope. This is not a fear. Those are emotional states and reactions to conditions. We have to get that right. Emotion does not in any way control what happens to the environment, except in so far as emotion drives human actions and inaction. Emotion is not central or controlling. Physics is.

As and when the atmospheric circulation loses its cold pole driving force, major reorganization and changes are inevitable and unavoidable. Greenland will for at least centuries act as a brake on the sudden shift to a wholly different circulation. Whether that is enough is an as yet unanswered question.

However quite certainly the loss of the immense area of cold that is the Arctic Ocean and the continental land masses will have a dramatic effect. We are already seeing the beginnings of that with serious changes in the circumpolar jet stream, and the continental jet stream.

The circumpolar jet stream (the northern of the two that forms the boundary between the Ferrell and Polar atmospheric cells has all but disappeared for much of the year. It has been replaced by a highly disorganized set of circulations.

The continental jet stream (the jet stream we all recognize as "the" jet stream) has lost much of its driving force for much of the year. As the Arctic warms and the ice cover is lost, and with it the driving force for circulation, the jet stream has become highly erratic. It has exhibited great swings north and south that have in turn steered massive changes in weather dragging cold blasts far south and extreme warmth far north. It is already causing huge changes in the timing and amount of rain falling on the continents. This will get progressively more severe until finally the jet stream vanishes entirely.

At that point, the climate system shifts into a new and completely different mode. The Hadley, Ferrell and Polar cells will then cease to exist. They will be replaced by a circulation dominated by a single hemisphere wide Hadley circulation combined with some sort of polar condition that we lack the data to even model. This has happened for long periods in Earth's past. We know aspects of how it did behave. But we do not know enough to replicate this with models. This is the "equable" climate.

During the shift, rain, storms, heat, drought, wind and more will all under go massive changes. Agriculture depends on having a reasonably stable climate with predictable timing of temperature, and precipitation. That will be gone. Agriculture as we know it will end. It may continue in some changed form. However, the reliable conditions we have known will end.

With the end of agriculture and the loss of the food stuffs agriculture provides inevitably comes starvation and population collapse. With that comes mass relocation of populations, war and worse. Those will coincide with the end of human civilization as we know it.

Beyond this one effect, the impacts on other species, on drought, disease, and other factors will be equally immense.

These are not things that anyone hopes for. They are the inevitable end of the chain reaction that starts with the loss of the Arctic ice, which is signaled by the BOE. That in turn isn't a simple thing. The first ice free day in the Arctic won't be the end. The first ice free summer (months long) may be. The first ice free spring and fall almost certainly will be. And the first ice free Arctic winter absolutely will be.

I asked earlier about the emotional driving forces in people's thinking. And this is why. A large portion of the population has their thought processes dominated by emotion. That serves us well for local things (local in both time and space). It does not serve us well outside of those. To the contrary, it serves to tremendously confuse the discussion and to dramatically limit action.

It should be the reverse, but it isn't. Fear of the impacts should drive massive action to prevent the actions that lead us exorably to the end of civilization and deep into the sixth great extinction event. But fear doesn't work that way. Fear inhibits reason. And that prevents the very deep analysis required to understand the problems and to developing and implanting the actions required to prevent catastrophe. Fear instead leads to avoidance, opposition and paralysis

Emotional thinking in this regard is a huge negative. It leads to misplaced assignment of people's motivations. It leads to the erroneous belief that people want or hope for tragedy to happen. And that ends up derailing the very discussions that are required to meaningfully understand what is happening and to then doing anything to prevent it.

We have to get past this.

Sam

Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 26, 2019, 03:19:48 PM
In conjunction with Avalonian, I tend to agree in general.  The big question is what is the carrying capacity of the earth (for humans)?  Edward Wilson wrote in his 2002 book, "The Future of Life," that the Earth could support about 10 billion people.  Others have argued that it is higher or lower.  As opposed to other life forms, which are totally dependent on the earth for support, mankind has altered the environment to support more life than would otherwise occur.  Some have argued that this will lead to more sudden and violent collapse, will others claim that this is sustainable.  Patricio Grassini has argued that crop yields have already begun to decrease.  Others have argued that sustainable agriculture can ensure future food production.  Difficult to say which way this will go.  All told, agriculture will determine the future of mankind.

KK,

Too often the carrying capacity of the Earth is taken as being dome fixed value. It isn't. The carrying capacity is dynamic. It depends on a huge array of factors. And it is hysteretic. Once exceeded for long enough to force collapse, the very conditions that allowed it to be that large will have changed in huge ways that dramatically reduced the carrying capacity.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 03:22:30 PM
Agriculture, and food production in general, will indeed be the decisive factor. And the real and imminent threat from AGW is the very real possibility of falling agricultural yields.

I remember back in the 80's when the newly published "State of the World 2000" was the talk of the day. That, and other similar Malthusian predictions, have a tendency to fail spectacularly. Of course, one of them might come true, but I don't really expect that to happen.

But I do not think that there is any self-regulating Gaia and if one wants to talk about the moral dimension, then in this case there is only one: The Human one.

"Collapse of civilisations" has historically only happened locally (logical enough, since the only global civilisation is still ongoing), and there aren't really that many good examples of civilisational collapse. The only ones we really have are various collapses of American Indian civilisations due to localised climate change or overuse of resources, I guess if we had better information we would find the same thing in other continents. But these were all tiny, or protracted, or both.

But our current civiliasation will not collapse due to AGW. What may happen is that large numbers of people will die from starvation. In the 1930s and 1940s we counted them in the tens of millions, this time round it might be in the hundreds of millions. But civilisational collapse? Not really.

And hundres of millions dying from starvation in Farawaystan will not change the consumption patterns of us wealthy westernes to any real degree.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 26, 2019, 03:33:05 PM
As a collapse of a civilization due to climate change we have the notable example of the first Egyptian Kingdom. The few texts translated speak of a swift horrendous fall into hunger, chaos, cannibalism and disappearance.
Recently it was linked to an abrupt cooling of the Atlantic Ocean. So imagine today. But many other tribes didn't notice such drastic changes (Nile lowering level and shifting meanders, desert overtaking entire cities, etc).
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 26, 2019, 03:35:38 PM
And I must admit that I find the rest of your posting rather disturbing, philopek. Do I discern a hope for mass death of the ignorant and the unwashed so that the few and brave "cognizants" can survive in a brave new post-apocalyptic world?


Your feeling disturbed does not change the smallest of historical, physical, astrophysical, philosophical and/or psychological facts.

I could now start a huge post as to what your being disturbed means and where to put it but in short, your KIND of political correct, facts denial and denial of laws of nature as well as denial of laws of physics is in large part responsible for that nothing has happened even though we know whats comming since decades if one had a close look.

The same way you deny what i say and find it disturbing, what's happening now and next, economically as well as ecollogically, has been denied for decades by those who stand there, play Mr. and Mrs. nice and say "but you can't say that, it's cruel"

That you try to put me into the corner of someone who wishes anything bad to people is not only offensive, evil and dirty playing, it's also part of the concept of our leftist societies that as well has been leading to where we are now and where we are heading.

First people lie to themselves and then to all others and to justify their lies they try to undermine the reputation of those who look, see and state the truth, nothing really new and either you are very young, or a first class hypocrite or both and that you call the truth non-sense is making a lot very clear and obvious. Even if you disagree, I know that it's no non-sense at all because up to this very day it has been like this for thousands of years without one exception.

So if anything is non-sense is to deny things that have happened in the past and are happening right now again and behead the messenger, because that's what you're trying to do, if not literally then still symbolically.

BTW i want to thank to all those who like my posts and are not so disturbed like others, after all 100 likes of 300 posts is a rather nice quota that I'm  even a bit positively surprised about ;) ;) ;)
For me that means not all is lost and not all the pearls are thr........etc. etc.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 26, 2019, 03:58:39 PM
Agriculture, and food production in general, will indeed be the decisive factor. And the real and imminent threat from AGW is the very real possibility of falling agricultural yields.

I remember back in the 80's when the newly published "State of the World 2000" was the talk of the day. That, and other similar Malthusian predictions, have a tendency to fail spectacularly. Of course, one of them might come true, but I don't really expect that to happen.

But I do not think that there is any self-regulating Gaia and if one wants to talk about the moral dimension, then in this case there is only one: The Human one.

"Collapse of civilisations" has historically only happened locally (logical enough, since the only global civilisation is still ongoing), and there aren't really that many good examples of civilisational collapse. The only ones we really have are various collapses of American Indian civilisations due to localised climate change or overuse of resources, I guess if we had better information we would find the same thing in other continents. But these were all tiny, or protracted, or both.

But our current civiliasation will not collapse due to AGW. What may happen is that large numbers of people will die from starvation. In the 1930s and 1940s we counted them in the tens of millions, this time round it might be in the hundreds of millions. But civilisational collapse? Not really.

And hundres of millions dying from starvation in Farawaystan will not change the consumption patterns of us wealthy westernes to any real degree.

You certainly need to read more and emote less.

Malthus prediction was reasonable within the bounds of the problem as he understood it. His understanding was far from complete. His simple analysis didn't include compensations. And compensations of all sorts play major roles in systems. That does not make his prediction wrong. It simply delays when it happens to a point after the compensations lose their ability to prop up the system.

For example: in the latter half of last century the development of the Koch and Haber processes for fixing nitrogen and producing fertilizer dramatically compensated for the depletion of natural nitrogen fertilizers. Those did not change the fact that there is a limit to agriculture based on fertilizer. It did greatly extend the time until we reach that limit. But that came at a series of costs measured in pollution, increased population, decreased nutrients, huge distortions in the natural world, and inevitably a vastly more severe collapse once the ultimate limits are reached and exceeded. The green revolution didn't "save us". It gave us 30 years to solve our problems with population. Instead we ignored that problem and compounded it.

Your belief or lack there of that the Earth (Gaia) is self regulating changes nothing about the existence and functioning of the Earth as a self regulating and balancing system.

Collapse of civilization has been global many times in the past. Continent wide collapses have been common in human history. Argument to the contrary is simply ignorance.

And again, your personal limitations based on belief in no way control reality. Reality is. Physics is. Thermodynamics is. These control what ultimately happens, not belief or lack of belief.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 04:13:08 PM
It's actually a bit uplifting to be assumed to be young - but I must put it to you sirs, Sam and philopek, that I believe myself to be both older and better read than both of you. And nothing that you have written so far convinces me otherwise.

And the willingness to go for the personal attack is simply astounding. Are you by any change North American?

First to Sam:


And to Philopek:

But I would like to apologize to philopek if I have misconstrued his earlier posting. However, I read it in the light of my earlier question, whether there actually were people who were hoping for civilsational collapse. And that talk of "survivors" and statements like "a huge and nasty collapse will and has to happen" makes me want to reconsider my apology. But never mind, take it or leave it as you wish!
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 26, 2019, 04:18:48 PM

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 26, 2019, 04:25:32 PM
It would be easier to discuss whether the skies are blue or not, that at least depends on where and when, but this ......

Over and Out @Binntho, that's too much, you won (in your world)
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 04:28:09 PM

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam

That's one of the quickest jumps out of a rhetorical hole I've ever seen! And you seemed so certain earlier!

And even though old Spengler had some interesting ideas, I would be rather loath to use him as my authority in any argument that pretended to have a scientific basis.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: bluice on August 26, 2019, 04:31:18 PM

First to Sam:

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

Your ignorance is simply astounding. Start by reading Ostwald Spengler. Then we can talk.

Sam
Surely you can mention some examples? We all know civilizations come and go but you claimed there are precedents of global civilizational collapse. I, for one, don’t know any.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Juan C. García on August 26, 2019, 04:31:38 PM
I vote for:
"No, I don’t know if eventually it will happen, but don’t wanna see it"

but there is no option in which I would agree 100%. I would like the following option:

"I think that eventually it will happen, but I am not hoping to see it happen"

Maybe I should vote for: "No, I am hoping it won’t ever happen", but there is not the "Remove vote" option. The wish that I have is a reaction of humanity against AGW, before it happens. But I am not seeing that reaction, so I think that eventually, it will happen.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 04:34:51 PM
It would be easier to discuss whether the skies are blue or not, that at least depends on where and when, but this ......

Over and Out @Binntho, that's too much, you won (in your world)

So I take it that you have no answers to my simple questions. Well it's easy to accuse others of ignorance and stupidity and what have you, but it can quickly become tricky when you have to justify those claims.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: MyACIsDying on August 26, 2019, 05:46:54 PM
<snip>

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

<snip>

I'm not sure if I'm getting your perspective right but in terms of temperature, the earth is definitely self-regulating. In danger of sounding condescending I will try to explain anyway, because either way it's a key point to understanding how our thermostat works and I wasn't well aware until recently myself.

All matter with a temperature greater than absolute zero emits thermal radiation. The Stefan–Boltzmann law states that the total energy radiated per unit surface area of a black body across all wavelengths per unit time (j*) (also known as the black-body radiant emittance) is directly proportional to the fourth power of the black body's thermodynamic temperature T: j* = σ T^4.

This means if you'd take a 0 degree (K) earth and let it fly around the sun for a million years, it will steadily increase in temp until it reaches an equilibrium where the emittance matches the incoming solar radiation.

The law is applied to earth in the wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law#Effective_temperature_of_the_Earth.

The added complexity of the atmosphere and albedo fine tune our thermostat but will never be able to override this core strive towards temperature equilibrium.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: binntho on August 26, 2019, 05:57:48 PM
<snip>

  • The Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.
  • Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
  • Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

<snip>

I'm not sure if I'm getting your perspective right but in terms of temperature, the earth is definitely self-regulating. In danger of sounding condescending I will try to explain anyway, because either way it's a key point to understanding how our thermostat works and I wasn't well aware until recently myself.


Thanks for the correction. I was referring to the Gaia hypothesis, should have madet that clearer. Perhaps I should have said that "the Earth's biosphere" wasn't a self-regulating and balancing system.

Physics is, after all, both self-regulating and balancing. It's the pesky lifeforms with their localised decrease in entropy that are the problem!
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: Sam on August 26, 2019, 06:39:35 PM
Surely you can mention some examples? We all know civilizations come and go but you claimed there are precedents of global civilizational collapse. I, for one, don’t know any.

They are plentiful. Within the historic record, Spengler and Toynbee provide detailed histories for a huge number of civilizations. Their theses about the collapse of those civilizations are for the most part about internal processes, with some external. Environmental collapse plays a role in that.

The most recent collapses of this sort include the dark ages in Europe following environmental shifts, particularly in the 5th and 6th century, coincident with the collapse of the Maya and populations across meso america as drought ended their ability to support their civilization. These were likely caused by the impacts of the eruptions of Krakatoa in 416 and 535, and Ilopango in 539-540..

The Harappan civilization is another that is almost certainly an environmental collapse. Ditto a civilization in the Arabian Peninsula. Many of these are temporally linked like the Mayan and European collapses following the major eruption of Karakatoa in 535, and the eruption of Ilopango in 539-540.

The eruption of Thera circa 1642–1540 BCE obliterated the Minoan culture and dramatically impacted all of the cultures around the Mediterranean Sea, with impacts that girdled the globe.

Ample and serious as they were, these were all relatively minor environmental shifts involving drought of a decade or so in duration, or darkening of the skies from massive volcanic eruptions. They reshaped entire continents as civilizations collapsed, people migrated, wars ensued and history suddenly changed.

Before these there were the dramatic shifts in environment that led to the formation and loss of the great Saharan and African lakes and the verdant ecosystems they supported, as well as at least two different successive cultures that flourished in what is now the Sahara desert.

The bigger shifts affected populations long before the modern record in the time pre-"civilization". These include the the dramatic changes at the end of the last ice age that drowned Doggerland, and indundated huge swaths of the Pacific Northwest in the United States with episodic catastrophes from the repeated filling and draining of Lake Missoula, and Lake Bonneville; and the Black Sea Deluge in the late pleistocene. At about the same time, the great lake Lahontan and the related pluvial lakes of Utah and Nevada supported the founding populations of the Americas. There are many many more.

The largest are farther back yet with events like the eruption of the Toba Supervolcano that nearly extinguished all major primates 75,000 years ago, and that almost certainly played a key role in the ending of the separate existence of the Neanderthals and Denisovans as they merged with the African Homo line. This likely also involved at least two other branches of the tree of man that we have genetic indications of in our human ancestry, but for which we have no bones or other paleological evidence.

The disruption we are headed into is on a scale much larger than a super volcano erupting. It will play out more slowly, but with vastly greater impact.

And that is the point here. The Arctic is our proverbial canary. It is our early warning about that which is to come. That is what makes it so very important.

Even more importantly, the arctic is a major factor in the driving forces for the atmosphere and the oceans. And when we lose that, we lose everything we know. That is simple physics. We are thermodynamically close to the edge on maintaining the atmospheric and oceanic circulations that support our world.

There won't be any possible adaptations to replace those. They are simply too big and too important to everything. We can find replacements for iron, copper, aluminum and other minerals. We can find ways to make fertilizers from air. But we can't replace the circulation of the air and the oceans. They are simply too fundamental to all life on earth.

Sam
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: kassy on August 26, 2019, 06:47:59 PM
I was referring to the Gaia hypothesis, should have made that clearer. Perhaps I should have said that "the Earth's biosphere" wasn't a self-regulating and balancing system.

That does make a huge difference.

We have not seen global civilization collapse because global civilizition is very recent. And barring the huge volcano eruptions most other collapses were local. Collapse is something worse then just a long time of economic downturn.

The problem is that we ramp up the masterswitch(es) so global is now local.
 
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: wili on August 26, 2019, 06:52:27 PM
Quote
the Earth is not a "self-regulating and balancing system". Some people have made that claim, but empirical evidence is sadly lacking.

I agree that this approach can be overstated, and I find Peter D. Ward's 'Media Hypothesis' (riffing on Lovelock's 'Gaia Hypothesis') to be a good corrective to some of the more extreme claims of the latter. But are you really denying that there are no feedbacks that can serve to regulate systems, at least to a point? There is a whole field in Biology that studies this, so it seems a bit of a stretch to say that there is no evidence to support any such dynamic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_system_science

But perhaps I am mis-reading your position here? If so, I look forward to your always eloquent further clarification! :)

Quote
Name me one example of global civilisational collapse
Name me one example of a continent-wide civilisational collapse

You seem to be saying here that if something has not happened before, it can never happen. This is an obvious logical fallacy. For the first claim, in particular, there has not really been a global civilization till quite recently. So here I must assume that I am misinterpreting your position in some way, for which, again, I breathlessly await further illumination from your general direction!

ETA: I see some of these have been addressed--and I agree that the original Gaia Theory went a bit too far. But do really reject all of Earth Systems Science?

Sam presents many examples of collapse. There is a fairly large and growing literature on civilization collapses and their causes. I'm not sure any of them rise to the level of continental collapse, but probably there are more than one definition of these terms being assumed here. Again, further clarity on these points would be appreciated.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: wili on August 26, 2019, 07:19:25 PM
"... pesky lifeforms..."

????

Soooo, you agree that the temperature is self-regulating, but seem to forget that it is (primarily) CO2 that regulates the temperature, and that CO2 concentration is (or was until recently) largely regulated in the atmosphere by of those very same 'pesky lifeforms'...

Again, am I missing something here?
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: bluice on August 26, 2019, 07:49:29 PM
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: philopek on August 26, 2019, 07:54:41 PM
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.

He didn't mean that and in any case was mentioning continental collapses that happened and that during 5th/6th century were several local collapses and whether we want to call KNOWN collapses due to i.e. tectonic/volcanic events global or not can be discussed. For example the volcanic events he mentioned had a global impact and just because there are two documented collapses in the after math and on two continents, does not mean that there were no others among less literate/less developed cultures.

I think he made a great effort to hint into the right direction for those who are blunt deniers of those facts and it does make little sense to rip that effort apart and nitpick on it. It's generally a pity that once the main points were made we lose  ourselves in petty details instead of letting the main point stand.

At least one could begin a dispute with a "YES-But" instead of the usual no, nope or what-have-you. That would contribute a lot more positive energy to further allow for a fruitful discussion.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: nanning on August 26, 2019, 08:01:19 PM
@avalonian
Thank you for your acknowledgments. And your non-human-centric worldview!  ;D ;D  :-*

@sam
I have liked your posts :)

Quote
The green revolution didn't "save us". It gave us 30 years to solve our problems with population. Instead we ignored that problem and compounded it.

[sarc]Yes, our medical technological progression was great wasn't it? ;)[/sarc]
More importantly I think, it gave our soils and waters 50 years of poisons. Abhorrent treatment of animals.

@binntho
Quote
Name me one example of global civilisational collapse

Don't you see that especially the global part is an enormous (I like this word) vulnerability?

There will be only 1 example. I will not name it.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: bluice on August 26, 2019, 08:09:12 PM
Sam I don’t agree there was a global collapse during 5th & 6th centuries. Surely it wasn’t the best of times, but Byzantium muddled through and the Gupta empire thrived in India, just to name a couple of examples.

I do agree AGW has the potential to become a civilization-ending or even existential threat to us, but this is far from certain.

He didn't mean that and in any case was mentioning continental collapses that happened and that during 5th/6th century were several local collapses and whether we want to call KNOWN collapses due to i.e. tectonic/volcanic events global or not can be discussed. For example the volcanic events he mentioned had a global impact and just because there are two documented collapses in the after math and on two continents, does not mean that there were no others among less literate/less developed cultures.

I think he made a great effort to hint into the right direction for those who are blunt deniers of those facts and it does make little sense to rip that effort apart and nitpick on it. It's generally a pity that once the main points were made we lose  ourselves in petty details instead of letting the main point stand.

At least one could begin a dispute with a YES but instead of the usual no, nope or what-have-you. That would contribute a lot more positive energy to further allow for a fruitful discussion.
What exactly was that direction? It’s obvious that environmental changes can and have caused societal collapse. We all know this.

What none of us do know is whether AGW will cause a global civilizations collapse. To claim otherwise is hubris. It is notoriously hard to predict the future.

I don’t agree with everything binntho writes, but I think he is 100% right there are many posters on the forum longing for a dystopian collapse.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 26, 2019, 08:12:21 PM

[sarc]Yes, our medical technological progression was great wasn't it? ;)[/sarc]

You can remove the sarc from this sentence. You probably would have died as a child or in your mother’s womb were you conceived in xix century, so you should show a bit of thankfulness and respect for humanity, or some of its deeds.
Title: Re: Are you hoping to witness a BOE?
Post by: gandul on August 26, 2019, 08:19:45 PM
The poll was great. I voted ASAP to raise political awareness, as for the effects I think we are starting to feel it.
Thank you all.
This thread has become an outlet for cheap philosophical messages. I’ ll try to close it now