Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: peterlvmeng on August 23, 2019, 09:57:49 AM

Title: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: peterlvmeng on August 23, 2019, 09:57:49 AM
I think it is time to open it.
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Wherestheice on August 23, 2019, 10:12:04 AM
I disagree
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on August 23, 2019, 10:13:13 AM
More importantly, Neven disagrees as well.
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 23, 2019, 10:36:23 AM
There is already a thread for the upcoming freezing season that I started a couple of days ago. And that thread was blocked by Mr. Neven😁
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 23, 2019, 02:12:29 PM
SIE, SIA and volume are still declining with minimums in extent normally occurring in the middle of September and we are opening a freeze season thread?
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on August 23, 2019, 02:17:01 PM
Too soon.  Wait until the ice approaches a minimum.
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on August 23, 2019, 09:50:50 PM
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Neven on September 21, 2019, 11:25:19 PM
I think it is time to open it.

It is now, one month later.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on September 21, 2019, 11:52:35 PM
The ESS cools but it still warmer in general. At this point I don't expect quickly extent increase in September. The peripheral seas will be ready to freeze in mid-October likely. But it need the heat advection to repeat the 2016 pattern. Also the land snow cover extent is now about normal despite some early snowfalls in Siberia
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paddy on September 21, 2019, 11:59:31 PM
I think it is time to open it.

It is now, one month later.

Changing over on the equinox as we are seems highly appropriate (even if it would have been a little early last year)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 22, 2019, 12:56:49 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on September 22, 2019, 01:24:48 AM
The ESS cools but it still warmer in general. At this point I don't expect quickly extent increase in September. The peripheral seas will be ready to freeze in mid-October likely. But it need the heat advection to repeat the 2016 pattern. Also the land snow cover extent is now about normal despite some early snowfalls in Siberia
Agreed,  the persistent anticyclone that is about to end has kept the ice nicely compacted, at the same time it has precipitated the refreezing inside the pack due to heat loss (reason why Gero observed as anomalous a week of extent drops coexisting with same week of area increases). 

Looking forward, yes it’s hard to imagine a fast refreeze with so much heat in the open ocean in general and the pack so closed and compact. ESS first?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 22, 2019, 01:31:58 AM

Changing over on the equinox as we are seems highly appropriate (even if it would have been a little early last year)

For most of the world, this year the equinox will not occur until Monday 23rd September.
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 22, 2019, 04:46:32 AM
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RealityCheck on September 22, 2019, 08:05:54 AM
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.
I agree with John Adams, then. It explains much about human nature, and our individual and collective behaviour eg towards our planet. There are some profound philosophies that agree also.... but I am already too OT for that here... I return to being the hero of my own dream...
Title: Re: 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 22, 2019, 08:36:07 AM
Why is there always a race to be the person who gets to start one of these threads?

John Adams believed that the number one motive of human nature is not benevolence or a commitment to justice, but rather what he called the "rage for distinction." According to Adams, each of us insists on being the hero of his (or her) narrative.

And here at the ASIF the honour of being the anointed thread starter comes with the heavy responsibility of trying to keep public order.

Welcome to the club Peter! If you're still around?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on September 22, 2019, 10:21:04 AM
The new ice is forming on the Laptev side, ice edge moves to the North by winds
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 22, 2019, 10:27:10 AM
Apparently, Neven didn't reopen my refreezing thread that was first I will reiterate my text from my post in that thread:

"First, 2019 has been a very bad year for the ice and will by extent numbers most likely end up being second lowest on record behind 2012. It remains to see where the volume will end up. We might imagine just how bad the season would have been if the weather pattern hadn't eased during July. Especially the ESS would have been warmer as pointed out by Friv in the melting thread.

However, as most people know 2012 was followed by two very good years for ice retention which 2013 and 2014 actually was. Since then, we have seen a Super El Nino and we now have a warmer world.

Another thing that will make its appearence is the Arctic amplification. Remember that 2012 refroze quickly after minima was achieved? Given all that heat that has been stored in Chukchi and Berings Sea, the refreezing should likely be much slower than back in 2012. And, regent winters have been warmer than 2013.

Can we hope for another 2013? I am pessimistic that we will have such luck again. More likely is a troublesome refreezing season. Another question is for how much longer we'll see -AO dominate? Worst possibly outcome is if 2019 is going to be a "prepper" year followed by an egen worse 2020...."
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Lord M Vader on September 22, 2019, 10:30:24 AM
Archimid and Stephen, you should reiterate your posts from that thread too. After that, Neven can probably remove it.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 22, 2019, 02:04:03 PM
Updated full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.2905.msg229994.html#msg229994

Hindcast: 9/18 to 9/22, Forecast: 9/22 to 9/26. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 22, 2019, 04:33:26 PM
At the risk of drifting off the topic of the OP, a cross post from Arctic Background:

"The Hearts in the Ice Expedition (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2920.0.html)"

Quote
Hearts in the Ice is a platform for social engagement around climate change, started by Hilde Fålun Strøm and Sunniva Sorby.  It is a 9-month overwintering project in the High Arctic of Svalbard, Norway. Starting in August 2019 Hilde (Norway) and Sunniva (Canada) will inhabit the 20 sq mtr trappers cabin “Bamsebu”- 78’N. They will be the first women to over-winter in Svalbard "without men".

The project will serve as a platform for global dialogue and engagement concerning the changes we are experiencing in the Polar Regions which impacts the world and what we all, individually, might be able to do about it. Life at Bamsebu will be broadcast and published via Iridium satellite through social media to scientists, school children, adventurers, and interested citizens from around the world.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2920.0;attach=133589;image)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 22, 2019, 07:06:57 PM
As the freezing season begins, here are some relevant things to track, besides total area/extent and total volume. The freezing season is a slow race, with a bit less drama than the melting season, but in the last few years it's been extremely interesting nonetheless.
* Tealight's FDD anomaly calculation, which normally correlates with PIOMAS volume.
* Wipneus' regional UH AMSR2 charts, focusing on the behavior of each sea, depending on the time of year. For the coming month, we shall wonder if the 2018 weirdness will repeat itself in the CAB.
* DMI's Temps north of 80o, which although does not give a proper average and is highly biased towards the pole, still gives some comparison with past years and some indication of how bad (warm) winter is. Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on September 22, 2019, 11:21:00 PM
As the freezing season begins, here are some relevant things to track...

* DMI's Temps north of 80o, which although does not give a proper average and is highly biased towards the pole, still gives some comparison with past years and some indication of how bad (warm) winter is. Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.
Thanks Oren!
Well it's obviously not that useless in Winter....
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 23, 2019, 07:36:57 AM
September 18-22.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg174001.html#msg174001).

Equinox.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 23, 2019, 02:31:48 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jplotinus on September 23, 2019, 05:19:32 PM
Divergence of DMI temp from norm suggests there may be another day or two of SIE declines before end of September. Plus, worldview shows little or no gain on Atlantic front between Svalbard and FJL, as I see it.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 23, 2019, 05:38:11 PM
The NSIDC haven't called the minimum yet. Here's their September 17th update:

"Sloshing Around in the Polar Twilight (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/09/sloshing-around-in-the-polar-twilight/)"

Quote
The end of the Arctic sea ice melt season is nigh. The last couple of weeks have seen small rises and falls in ice extent, primarily due to changes in wind patterns. However, falling temperatures will soon accelerate the pace of ice growth.

Arctic sea ice extent was 4.21 million square kilometers (1.62 million square miles) on September 16, which is likely near the seasonal minimum extent that is expected within the next week.

However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 23, 2019, 05:59:19 PM
However based on Wipneus' numbers I have no doubt Neven was right to open this thread!
I think so too, especially with cyclones showing up again that most likely will disperse some of the ice that isn't frozen solid yet.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 23, 2019, 06:55:33 PM
Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

 ;D Which would benefit us all.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jplotinus on September 23, 2019, 08:16:13 PM
Besides, it could drive A-Team to resume posting just to say how useless it is.

 ;D Which would benefit us all.

+1
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 23, 2019, 10:18:16 PM
Nippy in the far north today.

Minimum of -19.4 C at Alert, Nunavut and down to -19.9 C at Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland.

Cape MJ (4m ASL) was colder than the -17.5 C min at Summit Camp (3202 ASL) 

Edit: I notice too that Nullschool is currently reading over 10 C too high in the vicinity of Cape Morris Jesup.

At 19 UTC it is giving a temperature of +0.4 C whereas actual reading is -12.5 C.

And looking back over last 24 hours Nullschool did not dip below -10 C (in contrast to actual min of -20 C).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 23, 2019, 11:50:49 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230235.html#msg230235

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny version)
2019 September 1-15
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: subgeometer on September 24, 2019, 08:36:16 AM
Oe last look at the meltig seaso just past - I've posted a bunch of regional animations over on the test space thread , but here's one of the whole arctic drawn from Terra Modis on NASA worldview
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 24, 2019, 01:12:35 PM
Full-size versions available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230295.html#msg230295

Hindcast: 9/20 to 9/24, Forecast: 9/24 to 9/28. Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (tiny version)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 24, 2019, 02:17:48 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 23- 29

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on September 24, 2019, 09:13:15 PM
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on September 24, 2019, 11:46:57 PM
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on September 25, 2019, 01:15:37 AM
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.

Image to stay on-topic; ice formation in most sectors, but a bit of contraction in the western Laptev
I disagree.

2017 was off-the-charts low on PIOMAS volume starting spring, but was saved by the high continental snow, with a cold late NH spring, maybe it is correlated rather than causal (I think it’s a feedback so it’s both, the albedo feedback does not end in the ocean). 2018 was also a weak melting season.

2019 soon was very low on continental snow, so it was 2016, 2012, 2007...

It’s something to keep an eye in the freezing season. Apparently (I dunno) the warmest the Arctic stays in Winter the greater the snow dumps are in Siberia and possibly over the ice itself. To be proven over additional years, this negative feedback.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 25, 2019, 03:21:32 AM
I disagree.

I agree with you! See #5:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 25, 2019, 07:54:15 AM
September 20-24.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg174254.html#msg174254).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Darvince on September 25, 2019, 08:21:55 AM
The land snow cover extent back to its normal values. The snowfalls and heat wave are on Greenland now. I will pay attention to the snow tracking because it will be important next melt season

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.
The amount of snow cover on land is not very important until spring, especially late spring in May and June, as that determines the timing of when snow melt begins over the Arctic sea ice.



I wonder if we will see ice return to the north shores of Svalbard this winter? That region seems to be almost unaffected by the changing seasons, with ice cover being almost entirely determined by the strength and warmth of the West Spitsbergen Current.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 25, 2019, 08:38:11 AM


I wonder if we will see ice return to the north shores of Svalbard this winter? That region seems to be almost unaffected by the changing seasons, with ice cover being almost entirely determined by the strength and warmth of the West Spitsbergen Current.

There are other factors affecting ice cover around Svalbard. Synoptics and the Trans Polar Drift.

Persistent northerly winds will help drive ice against the WSC and vice versa with southerlies.

This article outlines recent changes in the Trans Polar Drift.

https://m.phys.org/news/2019-04-transpolar-drift-falteringsea-ice-nursery.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on September 25, 2019, 09:31:51 AM
This slide is from a talk given at the 2019 Spring Arctic Seasonal Review.

2019 was a bumper year for snow and the Arctic ice is shot to pieces at the moment.

I have seen snow chat plague these threads so even though its good to be having a debate i'm going to throw in the towel now.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on September 25, 2019, 09:45:33 AM
Whoa, just browsing the ASIG I noticed compactness is very high for the time of the year. Very fast internal refreeze of a pack that expands not so much...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 25, 2019, 01:46:35 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 24- 30

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: subgeometer on September 25, 2019, 04:43:42 PM
I disagree.

I agree with you! See #5:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/05/melt-pond-may-2019/

Not disagreeing but it also depends where the snow falls. Quebec vs Taymyr penisular for example. Its the stuff around the Arctic Basin that matters most here isnt it?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 25, 2019, 07:23:50 PM
How does snow influence the freezing season? How much does it have to snow to insulate the ice from refreezing?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 25, 2019, 07:29:13 PM
Ice drift map, two weeks, daily increments.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on September 25, 2019, 09:20:50 PM
How does snow influence the freezing season? How much does it have to snow to insulate the ice from refreezing?

You hit one of the influences: insulation, which works both ways (freeze & melt). There's also albedo (both on land and ice), melt-pond potential (?), and melting in spring injecting more fresh water into the system (halocline). That's off of the top of my waiting-for-my-morning-coffee head; I may have missed one & others here will be much more knowledgeable than I.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on September 26, 2019, 12:41:16 PM
Compaction is extreme, so there is no easy to freeze ice; SSTs are way above anything I have seen before, and there is warmer than average air over the Arctic the next few days. I would say that it is likely that 2019 will get to the first place some time October. Refreeze should be very very slow.
Or the Arctic will trick me again as it usually does :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 26, 2019, 01:35:27 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 25 - 1

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on September 26, 2019, 01:36:33 PM
The "slush floes" that dominated large parts of the CAB (facing the Laptev and the Beaufort) managed to survive thanks to the poor melting weather in August. This saved the melting season, but also gave a jumpstart to the freezing season, as cold fresh water intermixed with spread floes can freeze very quickly. Thus the very quick rise in area in the CAB. The CAA has seen a similarly quick refreeze around the surviving ice. Now that this process is (probably) over, it's gonna be mighty interesting. I expect a relatively slow refreeze especially in the ESS and Chukchi, as this summer they have been ice free longer than usual, giving the surface water time to heat and especially to mix.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on September 26, 2019, 08:34:43 PM
The "slush floes" that dominated large parts of the CAB (facing the Laptev and the Beaufort) managed to survive thanks to the poor melting weather in August. This saved the melting season, but also gave a jumpstart to the freezing season, as cold fresh water intermixed with spread floes can freeze very quickly. Thus the very quick rise in area in the CAB. The CAA has seen a similarly quick refreeze around the surviving ice. Now that this process is (probably) over, it's gonna be mighty interesting. I expect a relatively slow refreeze especially in the ESS and Chukchi, as this summer they have been ice free longer than usual, giving the surface water time to heat and especially to mix.

Jumpstart, I like that word to describe it.
Reminds to 2016 now, the fast inner refreeze, at least in what respects to area no?
Now the wall of SSTs...slow October.
Then who knows If atmospheric disruptions will keep on denormalizing the Arctic into the winter.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: VeganPeaceForAll on September 26, 2019, 11:12:56 PM
Area increases, thickness still very thin

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Michael Hauber on September 27, 2019, 03:27:04 AM

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.


More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling.  But the best way to get a wider cover of snow on the continents adjacent to the Arctic is to disrupt the polar vortex and allow more cold arctic air to spread further away from the central Arctic, meaning the central Arctic becomes warmer.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on September 27, 2019, 04:17:58 AM

I've seen a lot of debate about this, the consensus here is that continental snow doesn't really have much bearing on Arctic sea-ice. Recently (2017, 2018) the snow mass charts have gone off the scale in winter (ECCC had to make a new y-axis) and it really hasn't correlated with a change in Arctic sea ice melt.


More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling.  But the best way to get a wider cover of snow on the continents adjacent to the Arctic is to disrupt the polar vortex and allow more cold arctic air to spread further away from the central Arctic, meaning the central Arctic becomes warmer.
Yes! Extra snowcover also has the impact of aiding -500MB anomalies in the continents, with ensuing cold blasts into the mid-latitude oceans a particularly potent method of advecting additional oceanic heat into the Arctic. Continental snowfall is good from the perspective of blunting incoming warmth to the Arctic that would originate from the continents, it is bad from the perspective that -500MB anomalies are effective at evacuating mid-latitude oceanic heat northwards, into the Arctic.

IF the continents are snowcovered AND the Arcic is fully ice-covered, the outcome of snow-covered continents is probably net beneficial to sea ice. However, if the continents are snowcovered and the Arctic pack is entirely surrounded by water -- as is currently the case -- perhaps this is when the oceanic feedbacks derivative of the -500MB anomalies really kick into overdrive. When the sea ice is surrounded by hundreds or thousands of miles of open water, the positive benefits of continental snowcover are lost as that air which would normally advect overtop the sea ice, depleted of heat and moisture, is instead often muddled by cyclonic activity as it meets the open waters of the ESS / Laptev/ whathaveyou.

I had not considered this juxtaposition before, but it would make quite a bit of sense in explaining why atmospheric circulation goes to particular sh*t in the autumnal months as of late.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 27, 2019, 06:35:31 AM
September 22-26.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg174497.html#msg174497).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 09:06:01 AM
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 09:16:02 AM
Can anyone verify AAM is dropping

Nevermind, I found one.  http://atlas.niu.edu/gwo/

From the looks of things, going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization.  All at once.

The Arctic will stay fed by high pressure parcels every 4 days for the first half of October.

Here's a year of AAM
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 27, 2019, 09:47:41 AM
What's AAM, Sark? Why is it cooling the NH?

Google wasn't helpful:

Quote
AAM may refer to:
Academy of Ancient Music, a period-instrument orchestra based in Cambridge, England
Accademia di Architettura di Mendrisio
Active appearance model, a method for image detection, using statistical models
Air-to-air missile, a missile fired from an aircraft to attack another aircraft
Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers
American Alliance of Museums, an organization for museums and associated individuals
American Axle & Manufacturing, a supplier of automotive components
Al-Aqsa Mosque
Anti-Apartheid Movement
Aramanik language, an extinct language of Tanzania, ISO 639-3 designation
Association of Assistant Mistresses, a former British trade union
The US Army Achievement Medal, awarded for meritorious service or achievement
ASCII Adjust after Multiplication, computer instruction in Intel BCD opcodes#Multiplication
Automatic acoustic management, a technology to reduce hard drive seek noise
Mala Mala Airport in South Africa (IATA airport code: AAM)
Aam, a hamlet in the Netherlands
Alliance for Audited Media
The Association for Accessible Medicines, formerly known as the Generic Pharmaceutical Association (GPhA)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pleun on September 27, 2019, 10:03:33 AM
found this :

HEADLINE: Atmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM), a measure of how fast the atmosphere is spinning relative to the Earth's rotation, is a complex variable that can offer insight to particular flow configurations within the atmosphere.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 27, 2019, 10:04:59 AM
Thanks, Pleun. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 10:14:14 AM
it's like zonal mass.  sum total of everything torquing the atmosphere
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 27, 2019, 10:21:36 AM
Just reading up on it, Sark. Damn, that's interesting. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on September 27, 2019, 11:17:50 AM
Sark would you mind explaining why you think its "going to be one hell of a cold dunk into winter for Northern Hemisphere civilization" please?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 11:32:47 AM
Arctic air is being flung out of the Arctic.  High pressure dominates at the North Pole.  What will keep the vorticity together, the Fujiwhara effect?

It's already in the forecast.  Big cut off lows.  Spain saw one already.  Lots of cold fronts and lots and lots of meridional transport between equator & pole.

The polar cell is junk
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 27, 2019, 11:45:59 AM
1998 was a similarly broadly blocked year in a solar minimum with a large spread out anomaly like 2019 during the JJA period, and 2014 was the first Pacific Blob.

DJF of 1998+2014 is just one idea.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 27, 2019, 01:46:20 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 26 - 2

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 27, 2019, 01:48:44 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg230872.html#msg230872

Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 + MSLP + IWPD@850hPa (tiny version)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on September 27, 2019, 06:19:45 PM

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 27, 2019, 07:16:19 PM

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on September 27, 2019, 08:24:44 PM

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 27, 2019, 10:12:40 PM

More snow = more sunlight reflected = cooling. 

Not cooling but less or later warming, that's not the same.

Cooling would happen if temps would generally be lower than before but as they are generally higher (AGW!) we have reduced/later/ warming over snow covered area than over not snow covered area.

The biggest problem with more snow is that it makes it harder for the permafrost to refreeze, and that would lead to warmer landmass during summer, and more methane in the air.

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year
That's probably the better explanation of my simplified version.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 28, 2019, 12:19:34 AM
The CAB launching itself into the Beaufort.
Worldview, aqua modis, sep21-27  click to run
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 28, 2019, 08:24:28 AM
The wind has some say in this.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on September 28, 2019, 10:09:51 AM
48 hours out

2 meter temperature anomaly from GFS 00z Sept 28 2019

the nascent polar vortex is weakening

Who knows at this point.  Buckle up for October, although there are signs that atmospheric momentum is picking up, maybe because the polar cell being flung across the continents creates a lot of interaction with the land.  Maybe solar activity picks up a little bit (who knew)?  Maybe a bunch of ice melts.  Maybe the oceans will stop slacking on the job.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 28, 2019, 10:49:34 AM
Buckle up for October,<snippage>
Refreeze may be a bit slower
The wind has some say in this.
Yes, significant wind dispersion. unihamburg amsr2-uhh view of it, sep20-27. Cold there so the leads are likely to refreeze.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on September 28, 2019, 01:08:00 PM
worldview have an excellent setting for viewing through the winter night . recently the views have been excellent in the region of the ever growing pole-hole in other viewing options . Perhaps Uniquorn or someone can share the setting ? Alot of cracks show open water . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 28, 2019, 02:03:02 PM
I like Nighttime Imagery (Day/Night Band, Enhanced Near Constant Contrast) Suomi NPP / VIIRS.

Link >> https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-426576.63974346477,-259158.25889732456,405586.0350344804,219915.47219993867&p=arctic&t=2019-09-25-T11%3A54%3A14Z&l=Graticule,VIIRS_SNPP_DayNightBand_ENCC

And the RAMMB of course. :)

Link >> https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=6&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190928063132&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=day_night_band&x=16027.0009765625&y=15995.5009765625
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 28, 2019, 04:19:56 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 27 - 3

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame, or put it on a loop.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on September 29, 2019, 07:26:50 AM
September 24-28.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg174785.html#msg174785).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 08:57:24 AM
Arctic Sea Ice Reaches 2019 Minimum Extent

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2XKYdSqf2ss
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on September 29, 2019, 11:05:10 AM
Mercator sea temperature 0m overlaid with unihamburg amsr2-uhh at 50pc transparent. amsr2 0% ice (open water, normally dark blue) has been set to fully transparent. sep1-28.

The CAB pushing into the Beaufort meeting resistance with warm water from amundsen gulf  and eastern chukchi. The warm current from east spitzbergen finally making headway against the ice export towards the fram strait. Similarly with the warm current from the Kara sea. Laptev also warm.
Warm winds forecast across chukchi over the next few days.
Hurricane Lorenzo forecast to move north at speed.
click to run
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 11:23:27 AM
Oh cool, Meereisportal is having a nice ice edge comparison 2012/2019!

https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/mm_2012/

(https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/mm_2012/edge_20190927-201209_n_mosaic.png)

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on September 29, 2019, 11:27:48 AM
And here is a very depressing long term comparison.

https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/long/

(https://data.meereisportal.de/maps/mosaic/edge/long/edge_20190927-long_n_mosaic.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on September 29, 2019, 11:02:12 PM
Despite the persistent HP and lack of heat advection the high Arctic temperatures track near record warm levels
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on September 30, 2019, 08:37:06 AM
DMI >80° N temperatures are until now closest to the 2016 track.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 30, 2019, 11:48:05 AM
Has anyone noticed that the NAC is back? The ice lifted off the mainland all over the length of the CAB.

https://go.nasa.gov/2oqOofh
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on September 30, 2019, 01:35:34 PM
Last 48h + Five day Forecast
September 28 - 5

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 30, 2019, 02:26:40 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg231284.html#msg231284

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/25 to 9/30, Forecast: 9/30 to 10/3.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on September 30, 2019, 03:41:44 PM
Despite the persistent HP and lack of heat advection the high Arctic temperatures track near record warm levels
FDDs in 2016-17 were a record low.
The 2016-2017 freezing season ended with JAXA extent at a record low maximum with total extent gain about 4% below the 10 year average.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 01, 2019, 01:02:51 PM
There's a lot going on above the pea green soup of the Laptev, but I'm not sure it's refreeze yet.
https://go.nasa.gov/2npk5FM
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 01:38:07 PM
There's a lot going on above the pea green soup of the Laptev.
Are those algue a reoccurring event? It looks really green up there...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 02:09:06 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 30 - 6

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 04:48:53 PM
Maybe it's a consequence of the large fires? When it rains, all that burned carbon gets flushed down the rivers?

I found this article.
https://www.jyi.org/2019-march/2019/3/1/a-chilly-change-in-perspective-on-arctic-algae-blooms

Quote
When in bloom

These activity phases are determined by the abundance of sunlight and nitrates. As surface waters warm in the spring, they become less dense and less prone to mixing with the colder water below. Relatively heavy pieces of organic matter begin to sink, creating a nutrient maximum a couple of meters below the surface. Springtime sunlight and sub-surface nutrients drove the phytoplankton out from underneath the ice into the open water during the warmer months, behavior the scientists expected to see. What makes these results surprising is the relative rate of production of the activity phases: summer was not found to be the productive season for phytoplankton in the Greenland Sea. Most of the annual production occurred in equal parts under the ice and at the ice’s edge, with a much smaller contribution coming from summertime open-water blooms. Late winter and spring are therefore the most fruitful seasons for phytoplankton, a departure from the traditional school of thought on Arctic algae blooms. Without the Biogeochemical-Argo floats’ year-round data collection, this fact would have gone unrealized.

Climate change

It is especially important to have correct measurements of phytoplankton biomass and production in the face of climate change, since any estimation of future algal activity demands an accurate starting point. The Greenland Sea is already responding to new climatic pressures: warmer temperatures lead to thinner ice and melt pools, which are dark pools of water on top of the ice. Sea ice that is thin and wet has a lower albedo than normal sea ice, so the Greenland Sea is absorbing more solar radiation and heating at an accelerating rate. Increased solar radiation also makes the Greenland SIZ more hospitable for sub-ice algae blooms, which serve to darken the ice and perpetuate warming even further. The positive feedback loop becomes even more dire in light of Mayot et al.’s findings. Phytoplankton underneath and at the edge of the sea ice—now known to be the Greenland Sea’s most lucrative producers—are most susceptible to the effects of decreasing ice thickness. Higher initial counts of those populations suggest an even more drastic amplification of algae blooms and their associated effects.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 09:28:00 PM
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?

Edit; or is this just the reflection of the low sun on the clouds?
Edit2; Or the Aurora?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on October 01, 2019, 09:55:26 PM
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?
Winds have been very strong, and the North side of Svalbard is a lane where warmer saltier water circulates from the Atlantic, so that is a strong factor not in favor of ice coming back to the islands. But if strong winds turn direction it may do.
Actually the persistence of ice reaching as South as Svalbard has been weird in summer.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on October 01, 2019, 10:28:05 PM
It's weird that this is happening right now, at the start of the dark season. It's like they're all coming out from underneath the ice to suck up the last rays of sunlight. Can the refreezing and the release of salt have something to do with this?

Edit; or is this just the reflection of the low sun on the clouds?
I think my first comment in thi Forum was about this. What is first the chicken or the egg?

Now thanks to the winds there is room for the West Spitsbergen to strengthen and not to sink early forming a pool of Atlantic water.
Then ice will be fulminated when it comes back south (will it be??)
Next year no ice south of Spitsbergen.
And so we go until something happens that the current weakens, more ice gets to the islands, and the current says bye way earlier.
Then... cyclical.
That’s the way I see the egg-chicken of Spitsbergen (current).

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 10:40:38 PM
Actually the persistence of ice reaching as South as Svalbard has been weird in summer.
Yes, that was something that I was curious about, why the ice edge on the Barents and Kara sea didn't move all that much over summer, especially because of all that warm salty water.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 01, 2019, 10:52:17 PM
What is first the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. A proto chicken laid an egg with a small change in the DNA that made it the first chicken.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on October 01, 2019, 11:19:07 PM
Yes, that was something that I was curious about, why the ice edge on the Barents and Kara sea didn't move all that much over summer, especially because of all that warm salty water.

the reason is quite simple, at least the main reason that makes the difference:

Ice was driven over months towards the islands and piled up against them due to ice-drift.

I think the experts call this "ridging" and since the tendency continued over much of the melting season there was simply no ways that the ice there was able to melt in usual terms.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on October 01, 2019, 11:45:30 PM
What is first the chicken or the egg?
The egg came first. A proto chicken laid an egg with a small change in the DNA that made it the first chicken.
Well, there are internal factors, as the sinking force caused by ice presence dictates current flow, but depending where’s the ice is, the flow strength fluctuates, with some delay effect as massive currents  have lots of inertia, right? delay is the kind of thing that easily causes intrinsic pseudo cyclical behavior even in absence of external weather or flow fluctuations.

That’s what I am behind of with the egg-chicken thing, let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 12:27:59 AM
Ice was driven over months towards the islands and piled up against them due to ice-drift.
So those 3 island groups are basically preventing the ice from drifting too much into the hot salty waters of the Kara and Barents sea? It's a weird situation there, because the hot salty water seems to stay on the other side of the islands as well.

I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 12:30:26 AM
Let me know when you stay away from the pot and the drinks for long enough.
I try to restrict my drinking to ones every 2 weeks, but when I drink, I drink hard, and I can be an ashole sometimes when I'm in a bad mood...

My apologies for my bad behavior the other day!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on October 02, 2019, 12:40:30 AM
I wonder if the slowdown of the Gulfstream has something to do with the lack of ice loss on that side...

I don't think so in a currently significant manner.

Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.

Further as far as i can observe, the Atlantic warm waters flow ever farther east along the Russian coast. I think it has mostly to do with prevailing winds/currents and with the more mobile ice conditions.

In spring and during summer we could very well observe the thicker than usual ice north of the islands and since the north of the islands are in "Lee" current-wise it got kind of stuck there.

Of course what remains is to further carefully watch the coming seasons to see whether a pattern
is developing or not. Nothing is certain these day (or ever)

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 01:14:40 AM
Let's not forget that even though there may be a slow down, the waters are warmer i general, hence one would have to carefully calculate which effect is overruling the other.
I found this article. Interesting read!

Quote
When the current is faster, more of the warm, salty tropical water travels to the North Atlantic. Over years this causes more glaciers to melt, and eventually the freshwater makes the surface water lighter and less likely to sink, slowing the current.

When the AMOC is in a slow phase, the North Atlantic becomes cooler, ice melt slows, and eventually the freshwater melt source dries up and the heavier saltier water can plunge down again, which speeds up the whole circulation.

Recent high-tech tracking of the AMOC itself to suggest that its strength fluctuates as part of a roughly 60- to 70-year, self-reinforcing cycle.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/07/180718131128.htm
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 02, 2019, 04:50:32 AM

The ice extent reaching Svalbard after a few years of it melting out, even in winter, suggests a change in where the warm currents are going rather than variations in wind direction. Perhaps it's some oscillation in the turbulent mixing that goes on in the Fram Strait. My own theory is that the warm water has to go somewhere, and my guess is to the north coast of Greenland and from there to the Nares strait. It'll be interesting to see if the Nares stays open all year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 06:45:38 AM
7d hindcast mean...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 10:35:35 AM
What surprised me this year is the heat in the Atlantic. That "cold blob" is as good as gone, and the oceans around Greenland are especially hot this year. That would explain why Greenland is still having melt days this late in the season, but I don't understand it. The melting of the Greenland ice cap was enormous this year, and thus you'd think that the ocean would be cooler with all that cold meltwater. So what happened?

This is a comparison between 2018 and 2019. Notice also that the hot spot anomaly west of Svalbard has grown significantly. I haven't seen that before. I know that this hot spot has been debated before, and is thought to be an error, but why is it getting bigger this year?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 11:00:05 AM
Well, we may find out that the great AMOC slowdown isn't occurring.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 11:41:15 AM
I didn't know that there isn't a consensus yet under scientists that the AMOC slowdown is happening. I thought that this was settled science. (let's not debate that here)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 12:05:50 PM
I read that one recently, Freegrass:

Atlantic Ocean may get a jump-start from the other side of the world

Quote
A key question for climate scientists in recent years has been whether the Atlantic Ocean's main circulation system is slowing down, a development that could have dramatic consequences for Europe and other parts of the Atlantic rim. But a new study suggests help may be on the way from an unexpected source -- the Indian Ocean.

...

The researchers said their modeling indicates a series of cascading effects that stretch from the Indian Ocean all way over to the Atlantic: As the Indian Ocean warms faster and faster, it generates additional precipitation. This, in turn, draws more air from other parts of the world, including the Atlantic, to the Indian Ocean.

With so much precipitation in the Indian Ocean, there will be less precipitation in the Atlantic Ocean, the researchers said. Less precipitation will lead to higher salinity in the waters of the tropical portion of the Atlantic -- because there won't be as much rainwater to dilute it. This saltier water in the Atlantic, as it comes north via AMOC, will get cold much quicker than usual and sink faster.

"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation,"

Link >> https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/09/190916114032.htm
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 02, 2019, 12:50:45 PM
CanSIPS T2Ma for November is nearly exact same result as a month ago
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 02, 2019, 12:59:15 PM
Now it is October and we can see the SMOS thin ice thickness map. The survived ice in the Laptev side is really thin. Thanks to the August weather that slush have survived
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 01:09:39 PM
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation,"
Why did you leave out the next sentence?
Quote
"This would act as a jump-start for AMOC, intensifying the circulation," Fedorov said. "On the other hand, we don't know how long this enhanced Indian Ocean warming will continue. If other tropical oceans' warming, especially the Pacific, catches up with the Indian Ocean, the advantage for AMOC will stop."
I also think that the melting Greenland ice cap will produce a lot more fresh water to dilute that saltier ocean water than rain. But that's just MHO...

Isn't there a thread about the AMOC yet?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 01:47:04 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 1 - 7

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 01:58:39 PM
Why did you leave out the next sentence?

Because the question was "is there a consensus?".

Quote
Isn't there a thread about the AMOC yet?

Yes.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;topic=1755.80;last_msg=229197
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 02:16:12 PM
Because the question was "is there a consensus?".
And I think the answer is yes. There is a consensus that something is going on with the AMOC. A lot of research will still need to be done to find out exactly what, but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 02, 2019, 02:42:29 PM
I would like to see a publication or higher level interpretation of this blob of doom which has persisted off SW Svalbard for ~4 years.

I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.

Yes, thats a SSTA of 13 degrees Celsius.

Edit; im aware that its very unlikely this is actually a real SSTA value, probably closer to +3 or 4, but still, why?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 02, 2019, 03:14:31 PM
Why?
I'm thinking there are several 'strings' of Atl. water flowing according to the bathymetry of the Greenland/Norwegian seas. The northernmost following the shelf where Barents begins. These currents are pressed to move north into the Arctic proper for this they have to climb over the deep outflowing current, as they climb their inherent spin [they've been approaching the axis of rotation for some time] forces them into vortices where the various fractions sort themselves out but they also interefere with one another, so some excess heat will be released but perhaps the sensors are also detecting the turbulence of the interefering vortices.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 02, 2019, 03:20:31 PM
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 04:27:34 PM
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 02, 2019, 05:59:05 PM
I wonder if it has anything to do with the AMOC.
That's what I always thought. I thought that maybe the AMOC changed its path a little somehow, and is now bumping into Svalbard, causing it to rise to the surface, heating it up.

A valid hypothesis!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 06:31:28 PM
... but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 02, 2019, 07:03:24 PM
... but I guess we can agree that if there's a slowdown of the AMOC, that this could be a reason why the ice on the Atlantic side isn't melting as fast as the other parts of the arctic ocean. Is that a reasonable compromise?

Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
OCEANS 25 June 2018  16:00
‘Atlantification’ of Arctic sea tipping it towards new climate regime
Quote
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.

I think - well before 2040
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 02, 2019, 07:38:29 PM

Edit; im aware that its very unlikely this is actually a real SSTA value,

Here are the SSTs west of Svalbard from the Norwegian Met in colour contours at 2 C intervals. Orange 4 to 6 C, Red 6 to 8 C.

The Norwegian Ice Service states that "Sea surface temperatures are included as contours from thermal infrared imaging satellite data".
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on October 02, 2019, 08:29:41 PM
I wasnt aware (until today) that the old Norwegian Met Ice Service and charts, previously available at http://polarview.met.no/ (url no longer works) are now available in a new revamped website at:

https://cryo.met.no/en

I've just perused through this site and it is a treasure trove of charts and data. ASIF members, bookmark it ! 

Maybe mods would like to add it to the ASIG section ?

Here is a sample of some of the images available on the website  (Mosaic view of Sentinel 1 images) :

https://cryo.met.no/sites/cryo.met.no/files/latest/SAR-mosaic-latest.png
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 02, 2019, 08:31:34 PM
ASIF members, bookmark it ! 

Done! Thank you, Niall. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 02, 2019, 08:33:14 PM
Sorry mate, my pet theory is quasi the opposite. ;)

IMHO there is an Atlantification of the Arctic going on. We see Atlantic water go as far as the ESS.
It looks like Gerontocrat's graphs spell doom for my AMOC slowdown theory... :(
Or does it? I'm not giving up yet! hehe  :P

What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

I'm not arguing! I'm just a big believer in the AMOC slowdown theory, and I'm not gonna give up defending it yet! ;)

Edit:
The AMOC splits already, so I think that my theory isn't all that crazy. It could be that the Barents sea arm of the AMOC is getting stronger, while the Fram arm is getting weaker.

Is there any data available on this?

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/OCP07_Fig-6.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 02, 2019, 10:56:48 PM
I just read somewhere of a ~60 year cycle of AMOC speeding up and slowing down associated with something else - something like, (1) AMOC slows, more cold water sinking faster, AMOC speeds up; (2) AMOC speeds up, less cold water sinking, AMOC slows.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 03, 2019, 02:19:21 AM
Great explanation John, but why this persistence? A decadal swing in the location of these vortices or forcing due to sea ice changes?
Well I'm only guessing but it seems that as Atl. waters penetrate deeper into the Arctic more Arctic waters are forced out, whether on the surface or close to the deepest level. The loss of Barentz sea ice seems to be a key factor, so I assume the complex surface it once presented to tidal currents acted as a baffle, this gone allows a smoother inflow which in turn accelerates penetration. I've said elsewhere that it seems that currents are residuals of tidal flows and that currents on the scale we're examining appear to flow like slime bodies  So with more Atl. waters induced north in the general run of things only to be frustrated in their passage by particular circumstances we see persitent anomolies that wax and wane, related [i think] to the forcing of more variable surface outflows.
This season I expected a much earlier breakthrough of surface waters in the CAA, and more surface flow through Fram neither of which occured so perhaps there's been a significant increase in outflow  at depth through Fram forced by Atl. water ingress and in turn forcing Atl. waters ingress - evening out yet gently accelerating tidal fluctuations.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 03, 2019, 05:31:58 AM
Facts About the Arctic in October 2019

Link >> http://greatwhitecon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 03, 2019, 06:34:44 AM
+/- 200 meters

5 day running average height anomaly for the bottom half of the atmosphere, for September 2019

This is a violent start to the season of obscene weather in the Arctic.  October.  November.  There will be a SSW or splitting or both in DJF.  Arctic air outbreaks pinwheeling around Hudson Bay.

200 meter blobs meeting at the North Pole on the first day of October.  Good God.

Ocean oscillations + Ocean heat + solar minimum + thin sea ice + sudden loss of dimming

I think people are confusing weather with a restructuring of the atmosphere.

* https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z500_nh_anim.shtml

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 03, 2019, 08:48:03 AM
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.

Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 11:40:43 AM
Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Isn't this a place to gain more knowledge?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 03, 2019, 01:10:52 PM
Some people who seem to like posting pet theories here about the AMOC seem to lack the most basic understanding of how it works.
Isn't this a place to gain more knowledge?

Some people start by reading up on the easier and more accessible texts before regaling others with their pet theories. Particularly when it comes to the more serious threads such as this one.

There are other threads, such as https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.0.html and particularly https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2274.0.html where intellectual laziness is more acceptable.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 03, 2019, 01:29:34 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg231743.html#msg231743

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/28 to 10/3, Forecast: 10/3 to 10/6.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 01:40:49 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 03, 2019, 01:53:18 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 2 - 8

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
The colder temperatures exactly where the ice pack is. It's about a week until the inner basin should start to refreeze very quickly. But we'll see how it will go this year since it was the highest AWP in summer this year
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 03, 2019, 02:15:04 PM
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 02:52:32 PM
gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily .

As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 03, 2019, 03:12:18 PM
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

 Lorenzo has dropped by (N. Ireland ) .. wind and rain steadily increasing . A lot of L's energy is heading toward the Arctic , mostly via Greenland . Temps are forecast to briefly reach >0'C at the pole in a few days.
  Those last few days record low ice days from  2007 look like being replaced by 2019 later this month .
b.c.
 


Most regrettable you feel like that, I always welcome being able to read contributions that foster my own understanding and I have always felt that this forum has a brilliant tolerance to those less knowledgeable.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Mozi on October 03, 2019, 03:50:31 PM
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 04:10:42 PM
Free(grr)ass   .. gaining more knowledge can be done by reading the past .. your lack of knowledge could be overcome readily . AMOC and Svalbard's ghost hotspot have been frequent topics of discussion .
nothing new has been added to the debate in several years .. just new posters repeating .
 I usually avoid this thread now .. after multiple visits daily since 2013  . Thank you ! As you well know I cannot afford your continual delivery of self-loading mp4's .

I agree. It's admirable to want to learn about these topics but when the discussion here is dominated by those who (to put it kindly) are still in the process of learning, that dilutes the value of this thread which used to be filled by people who knew what they were talking about. There are other places on this forum to ask questions on pet theories or learn the basics.
It's only normal that when a forum like this grows, that people will show up that haven't had the privilege to study the arctic for multiple years. When you tell people like that to go away, they will, and this forum will stay small.

I see this thread more as the main ASIF thread. A place to discuss and learn about the arctic. There are other threads for pure data and science. Let this place be a place where people like me can learn, and get involved.

I try to contribute to this forum with my videos. Many people like them, some people don't. Those that don't, can just put me ignore, and all those videos will disappear.

So use the ignore button, or accept the fact that we're not all scientists.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2019, 04:54:54 PM
What if the Barents is warming because the slowdown of the AMOC - and probably other factors - causes it to rise more to the surface - hence the hotspot west of Svalbard -  and thus instead of the hot Atlantic water sinking to the deepest parts of the Arctic, it stays high, and heats up the Barents?

This is an incredibly persistent misconception. The warm Atlantic currents are surface currents. They do not "rise more to the surface" since that's where they are to begin with.

And hot (or warm) water does not sink unless external factors make them sink, of which there are basically two that can operate in tandem:

1) The hot (warm) water cools down on the surface, and due to it's high salt content it ends up sinking.
2) The hot (warm) current meats freshwater and sinks in spite of being warmer, since the salt content makes it heavier.

But then comes the "AMOC is slowing down" hypothesis which is based on increased amounts of fresh water (meltwater from Greenland) diluting the hot (warm) Atlantic surface water and stopping it from sinking!

Since the sinking of the (cooled-down) surface current is thought to be a large driver behind the AMOC (perhaps constituting 1/3 of the total), when less cooled-down water sinks due to lower salinity, the AMOC loses power and starts slowing down.
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
_______________________________________-
ps: The ESS is being attacked from both sides - earlier melt in Laptev & Chukchi, and from the south - a warming Siberia.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 05:25:51 PM
Meanwhile over 90% of the increased energy trapped by rising CO2 ppm is going into the oceans, and the North Atlantic is getting its fair share.
The Air temperature in the Arctic is warming at twice the world average.
The Albedo Warming Potential of seas like the Barents which are so much more ice-free much earlier in the melting season is rising quickly - (See the "May June July" line in the graph I attach again).

So my speculation that belongs to me is that a slowing AMOC might slow down the Atlantification of the Barents - (which then advances into the Kara, then the Laptev?) but cannot stop it. Timing - I have neither the maths nor the bank of supercomputers. Got a few hundred million bucks to spare?
+10 (if that were possible)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 03, 2019, 06:00:39 PM
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 03, 2019, 06:16:04 PM
fuck!  :'(
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 03, 2019, 06:19:58 PM
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
Let us hope you receive Justice, not The Law.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 03, 2019, 06:28:24 PM
Take care of yourself, too, b,c,.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 03, 2019, 06:32:13 PM
  ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)

I am so sorry to read these words.  You're in NI?  I sense that's among the most conservative areas in the British isles.  To be punished for being kind is a profound injustice.  Maybe a gazillion emails from us to the judge might help?  I wish I could do something.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 03, 2019, 07:17:40 PM
Yikes. Very best to you, b.c. I hope you get a good result.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on October 03, 2019, 07:58:07 PM
The trouble with the ignore button is that I'd rather not remove your or anyone elses posts from my potential viewing . Everyone has something worthwhile to bring at least occasionally ..
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

Anyway... This is waaaayyyyyyyyyy OT. I didn't want to reply because at first I thought you were pulling my leg, but then I saw all the replies, and thus... Read this...

Declaration of Principles on Equality
https://www.equalrightstrust.org/ertdocumentbank/Pages%20from%20Declaration%20perfect%20principle.pdf

Good luck!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 04, 2019, 05:00:11 AM
Facts About the Arctic in October 2019

Thanks for the mention B. See also:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/09/the-mosaic-expedition/#Oct-04

Quote
We finally found the piece of ice that will be the home for Polarstern for the next year. It’s a floe a few kilometers in diameter and with thickness ranging from half a meter to a few meters.

Photo credit: Janek Uin, Brookhaven National Laboratory
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 04, 2019, 06:47:32 AM

Early snow traps heat in the ground and in the ice. Instead of the surface being able to radiate heat directly to and through the atmosphere (say - 40°C) it has to conduct the heat through all those nice air pockets in the snow. On sea ice it would effectively lower the number of FDDs

Early snow = slows down heat loss (insulator)
Late snow = slows down heat gain (albedo, specific heat of melt to overcome before ice and ground heat up, insulator)

Of course and model would depend on the latitude and time of year

Interestingly, a similar argument was put forth a couple years ago during a fast refreeze of arctic ice. The proponent stated that arctic ice forming too quickly traps heat under the ice that would overwise be released into the atmosphere if open water remained for a longer period of time. Thus, fast early refreeze is bad because it traps too much heat in the ocean that will later result in faster melting.

This year extent has been increasing much more slowly than that year. According to the hypothesis, that may mean more heat is now escaping from the ocean into the atmosphere, which would be a good thing. It may result in short-term warmer air temperatures but faster cooling of the ocean.

I have been lurking around here for about 3 years and explanations for what's going on seem to change every year. However, to be consistent and make sense of it all, I try to recall, compare and contrast all the different hypotheses to come up with a consistent synthesis.

Returning to the hypothesis, the proponent seems to have been right because after fast early refreeze, maximum extent ended up being one of the lowest, if not THE lowest, on record up till that point. Therefore, if the hypothesis was correct then it should be correct now, which means after a slow initial refreeze we might see an increase in maximum extent compared to previous years. If not, then the hypothesis was just a lucky guess, nothing more.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 04, 2019, 07:04:29 AM
So sorry to hear that BC. FreeGrass doesn't mean giving away grass for free. It's just my way of saying "Free The Weed". Freedom for cannabis users. I've been fighting that fight for almost 40 years now, and if I were you, I would tell your lawyer to bring up the "Declaration of Principles on Equality". My conclusion after 40 years is that (illegal) drug users are being discriminated against. Why are deadly hard drugs like alcohol and cigarettes legal, and other, less harmful drugs, illegal? Why doesn't society like me? Because I use a much safer drug than alcohol? You've seen what alcohol can do to me... So the current drug laws are in conflict with the anti-discrimination laws. That's my end conclusion on the drugs debate...

[Sorry, totally off topic, but interesting nonetheless.]

Freegrass, I don't know where you live, but in the U.S. cannabis is slowly being legalized in more and more states. Most of the Dem candidates seem to be for federal legalization. More and more conservatives are getting on board too as more data is produced showing the benefits of weed compared to many legal drugs that are more harmful. There are cannabis conferences popping up all over the place, involving merchants and lawyers. Hemp-derived CBD is essentially legal nationwide since 2018 but regulatory schemes are still in doubt. The FDA may screw it all up as they often do.

Anyway, I don't think your fight has been in vain. Attitudes toward weed have liberalized radically over the past few years.

Although I have never been a pot user, I became interested in the commercial aspects of it because a fried of mine came up with an interesting product (combo drug). Also, I developed a terrible pain in my shoulder and neck about a year ago and found great relief using a topical salve I purchased in one of the states that legalized pot. I currently live in a state that doesn't yet permit the sale of cannabis, only the sale of hemp CBD. I therefore developed my own very effective topical pain salve that contains CBD (and presumably no more than the legal limit of 0.3% THC) and other components. It has miraculously cured my pain better than the stuff I bought before.

Anyway, this is no "snow job" so hopefully on topic!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 04, 2019, 07:51:38 AM
Thanks for the mention B.

Welcome, Jim! :)

I'm a subscriber of your blog now and see all new posts in my RSS-reader.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 08:15:54 AM
Winter Hype
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 08:18:15 AM
bbr, give us a way to send blessings.  post paypal here or in pm.  defense
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Neven on October 04, 2019, 09:47:06 AM
  As I'm up in court for sentencing tomorrow for giving free grass to a number of people with serious medical needs I may not be here for the next 6 months (or even 7 years) .. I am considered a 'persistent offender' having 8 previous convictions for 36 similar offences . These will be taken into account .
       just b.c. :)

Wow, that sucks. Good luck, I hope you have a good judge in a good mood.

Meanwhile, September 2019 didn't break any regional records, but was stil second warmest on record overall, and the third time after 2006 and 2016 to be above freezing (in my spreadsheet):
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 10:01:47 AM
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 04, 2019, 11:30:56 AM
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

By way of example please see:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg231704.html#msg231704
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 04, 2019, 11:34:46 AM
I'd have to quit my job and start writing!  Jeez

isn't it something to break major news on our Atmospherics thread? Pulling hard for us.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2692.msg231865.html#msg231865
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 04, 2019, 02:25:39 PM
Mercator (model) SST with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparent (0% concentration set to fully transparent) sep24-oct3. click to run
Warm pacific water still entering the chukchi from the pacific. Atlantic 'battle of the bulge' continues. Refreeze apparently making headway in the Laptev
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 04, 2019, 02:50:31 PM
... and CAA.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 04, 2019, 03:38:20 PM
I'll have to take over A-Team's position on this venerable board and start posting updates for you all to follow

You'll have to do a lot more than that to "take over A-Team's position on this venerable board"!

There are few here who could match the content, both breadth and depth, of A-Team. Hopefully this is snark.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: dnem on October 04, 2019, 03:45:19 PM
Def just a joke. A-Team always disparaged the usefulness of the DMI 80N temp data.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 04, 2019, 11:12:14 PM
Dnem,
Your earlier post was, to me, obviously a joke:  A-Team and that graph  -   ::)
Where's the emoticon with actual rolling eyes?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on October 04, 2019, 11:25:22 PM
Mercator (model) SST with unihamburg amsr2-uhh overlay at 60% transparent (0% concentration set to fully transparent) sep24-oct3. click to run
Warm pacific water still entering the chukchi from the pacific. Atlantic 'battle of the bulge' continues. Refreeze apparently making headway in the Laptev
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2019, 02:17:50 AM
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.

You're not suggesting that ice forming in the ESS soon is ominous are you? It became ice free very early and now shows that it will be freezing very late.

I suspect I have misunderstood you. What is ominous is how long the ESS is ice free,
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 05, 2019, 07:31:52 AM
Ice drift map from 25th.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 05, 2019, 09:04:11 AM
From the extent/area data thread...
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
October 4th, 2019:
     4,534,324 km2, an increase of 18,749 km2.
     2019 is 2nd lowest on record.
     (2007, 2012 & 2016 highlighted).
Prediction, mid-October - 2019 will drop behind 2012 to become consistently lowest extent for date, and will continue to be there through most of the freezing season.  I'm expecting a warm winter in the high arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 05, 2019, 09:12:26 AM
September 26 - October 4.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg175458.html#msg175458).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 05, 2019, 09:12:50 AM
Since i am a member of this forum it is suggested that people who have comments on the data would take the discussion about the data to this (i.e. melting) thread.

I think you are the first one i see actually doing so, JDallen. So big-time kudos to you! :D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 05, 2019, 09:17:01 AM
To support jdallen's post here is the SST anomaly for 2019/10/02 vs the average of the same date for 2007-2012-2016. The Laptev,ESS, Beaufort and Chukchi are much warmer than during those years. Atlantic side is similar on average with some very cold spots but those cold spots do not freeze anyway. So it would really be a surprise if the rate of freezing would not be very slow...No ice in the Bering this year????
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on October 05, 2019, 09:58:56 AM
Right about now the extent in 2012 started accelerating upward, so in two weeks or so we might be back to No.1 lowest extent for the date, if this continues.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 05, 2019, 12:17:39 PM
September 26 - October 4.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg175458.html#msg175458).
Thank you as always Aluminium.
I notice that the regions with the fastest growth, the sectors facing the Beaufort and the Laptev, are the same regions that had received consistent export in the second half of the summer. I am quite certain this made them more susceptible to refreezing, by decreasing the salinity of the surface water.
The big difference with 2012 is that the GAC stirred the water column so hard that it brought more saline water from below, and this caused melt to be aggravated and refreeze to be delayed by about a month, until the surface stratification was rebuilt.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sailor on October 05, 2019, 12:39:37 PM
Seems to me that Pacific inflow keeps temperatures up at Chukchi and even Beaufort, but the drop at ESS coasts seems ominous. A lot of snow has fallen over East Siberia already. Ice may form near the coast soon.

You're not suggesting that ice forming in the ESS soon is ominous are you? It became ice free very early and now shows that it will be freezing very late.

I suspect I have misunderstood you. What is ominous is how long the ESS is ice free,

Yes, my poor use of the English language.
Seeing how quickly the ESS coasts seem to cool down, I meant "something (refreeze) is about to happen there quite suddenly" without the negative connotation of the word "ominous".
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 06, 2019, 02:29:26 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232108.html#msg232108

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/1 to 10/6, Forecast: 10/6 to 10/9.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on October 06, 2019, 08:42:12 PM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Alexander555 on October 06, 2019, 09:00:54 PM
What we do see is that in the years 2010, 2011 and 2012 there are no cold records. Like you see in the summers after it.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on October 07, 2019, 04:17:08 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

Especially when you consider the broad area of low pressure that dominated the 2nd part of August  was positioned in such a way that it did not bring any warm air with it and the upper air at least was fairly chilly within the low. That coupled with wind direction saved the ice from going any lower so I can only assume high SSTS played a part?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on October 07, 2019, 05:32:45 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

Have you compared it to the satellite data?  UAH shows August with positive anomaly at the pole but not the highest anomaly for August.  I only took a quick glance but it would be interesting to compare the satellite anomalies with melt rates ... in one's spare time ... if one had any lol ....

UAH lower troposphere here - https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: etienne on October 07, 2019, 06:50:40 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019. That we only reached the second position because we started very low and because there was a lot of compaction at the end. The Greenland today page of nsidc https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ also shows an average year. That's something I worry about. What would happen if 2012 conditions would happen again?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on October 07, 2019, 07:15:13 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019. That we only reached the second position because we started very low and because there was a lot of compaction at the end. The Greenland today page of nsidc https://nsidc.org/greenland-today/ also shows an average year. That's something I worry about. What would happen if 2012 conditions would happen again?
2019 was much warmer than 2012
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on October 07, 2019, 07:21:26 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far. We don’t know an iota of what’s going on apart from the inexorable warming.

I am not sure that 2019 had the second warmest August on record. But trying to explain the low melt/compaction on August 2019, what I notice was that there was not strong wind. Some low pressures, but not enough to mix the ice with warmer waters and generate a melt.

What does anybody think about the low melt and compaction on August 2019?

(Sorry for the off topic, but the 2019 melting season topic is closed  ;) ).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 07, 2019, 07:37:53 AM
October 2-6.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg175803.html#msg175803)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 07, 2019, 07:59:52 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far....
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019.

WTF? Normal melting conditions? With warmest August, 2nd warmes June and 3rd warmest July (and it was quite sunny for a good part of the summer as well)? How can you call that normal? Based on temps, ice should have crashed to nil, but it held up very well, so I have the same question as the original poster: i wonder why we did not lose more ice?

My answers are:
- the GAC of 2012 was truly a powerful and rare phenomenon and simple warm weather is not enough to repeat it
- the Central Pack is really hard to crack
- the Arctic is a mystery :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: sark on October 07, 2019, 08:19:51 AM

Boundary layer protection over the ice perhaps.  can there be an inversion over the ice?

this sure is the most barotropic and anticyclonic I've ever seen the Arctic atmosphere in summer, at least going back to 1948.  solar minimum, thin sea ice, hot oceans, weak vortex, low atmospheric momentum.  disrupted vortex at both poles.  at the very least, the earth is spinning faster right now because of a global atmospheric line up of influences, a cosmic line up.  nobody has ever seen this. 

We all can see that it rains harder now.  When did this begin?  Because when that time came, it became Abrupt, and unless we intervene, it will Moist Greenhouse Runaway hell why not Venus

I'm not surprised the ice hasn't melted, I don't think it matters at this point.  between Spring extremes and Autumn extremes, there wasn't enough time to grow a crop on millions of US acres.

August was rather tranquil if I remember, and while the high pressure ridges blown out of the Tropics kept reaching the North Pole directly in huge cut off parcels of anticyclonic warm air throughout the atmosphere, there were still major differences in ground conditions (sea ice surface) at least whenever I checked

2 meters up is not high when you're on top of 1.4 meters thick sea ice even in full sunlight that is going to be cold.  at 925 millibars it could be different because it's still a cold desert down below.  waves won't propagate through the pause in layers.  wild guess.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on October 07, 2019, 08:44:40 AM
Still trying to understand how the *warmest* August on record, according to awesome +70N 925hPa temps chart produced by Zack Labe, led to such a poor loss of ice extent. No convincing explanation so far....
I am convinced that we had normal melting conditions in 2019.

WTF? Normal melting conditions? With warmest August, 2nd warmes June and 3rd warmest July (and it was quite sunny for a good part of the summer as well)? How can you call that normal? Based on temps, ice should have crashed to nil, but it held up very well, so I have the same question as the original poster: i wonder why we did not lose more ice?

My answers are:
- the GAC of 2012 was truly a powerful and rare phenomenon and simple warm weather is not enough to repeat it
- the Central Pack is really hard to crack
- the Arctic is a mystery :)
Your answers are good, especially the third.

When the melting momentum hit a wall in early August I commented then that we were missing something key in our understanding of what drives the melt.  They key things that stand out in my mind now are:

There's far more, no doubt, but that's what jumps out at me now.

I will be watching a number of things now on the refreeze.  As others noticed, we are seeing regular cyclical massive intrusions of heat and moisture all the way into the central basin, which themselves show no sign of diminishing.

I think the refreeze of the peripheral central seas (ESS, Chukchi and Laptev in particular) will be strongly retarded.  I think the Beaufort and CAA will actually refreeze fairly fast, in keeping with the development of the "cold pole" over northern Canada and Greenland.  I think they will catch up rapidly once we reach mid to late November, and I think continued intrusions of heat will offset what would normally be heat lost from those seas.  That heat retention will play a key role in how much thickening we see late in the refreeze season.

I will be watching the CAB with considerable interest and am overjoyed by the over-winter expedition being carried out.  My prediction of what's ahead is that we will see much higher than typical snowfall, which we know is a very two edged sword.  Next spring it will protect the ice.  However, if it stacks up too high and too fast, it will seriously impede the very necessary lost of heat out of the arctic basin we need to preserve the ice.

I'm tentatively thinking were going to see conditions much like 2016-2017, with serious drops in FDD's and anemic volume growth, much of which won't happen until after northern hemisphere snowfall locks in colder temperature over the continents.

It will be an interesting season.

(Post script - various models have the remnants of typhoon HAGABIS blowing back up into a *very* powerful storm in the Bering in a few days.  That could seriously disturb weather on the Pacific side of the basin.  Worth keeping track of, I think.)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 07, 2019, 05:12:35 PM
Ominous signal from the Arctic; it has never been warmer

Quote
~Complex system by its vastness,  the Arctic atmosphere warmed to #1 despite any clear year to year trend.
~600 mb temperature analysis reveals September 2019 surpassing 2012, despite 2012 having less sea ice at minima.   
~Shouldn't  2012 atmosphere have been the warmest one?

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/10/ominous-signal-from-arctic-it-has-never.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 07, 2019, 06:46:05 PM
 Does the "peak" of the freezing season have any impact on the "peak" of the subsequent melting season? If the ice expands record small this season, is it more likely to contract to record small next season?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 07, 2019, 07:57:55 PM
Even though 2016 had a similar minimum... it seemed like for a large part of the year we were way ahead of it...  Even the 2016 area minimum was only really for a three week period well below this year.  It seems we can't judge a year by a minimum... 2007 seemed like a very bad year and 2011 is often in the upper five?  Global ice missed 2016 numbers in area but seam to be keeping pace or besting the last two years which were also bad.  Global extent is another story... we are definitely looking at records below 2016 at this point. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 07, 2019, 07:59:49 PM
There are a lot of positive and negative feedbacks interacting. When weather happens, this will screw your math. So i guess the answer is: No one knows, Tom.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 07, 2019, 08:10:16 PM
if we are going to be braking the global ice record every two or three years as each year is always now in the top three most of the time, isn't this the global equivalent of a blue ocean... I mean we are talking a difference of 2 million square kilometers right?  Guess we learned a few important things this year... a GAC not critical, some [rare?] inverse dipole can stop ice lost any time of year, and sunny weather not always the best conditioner??  I've not heard any talk of methane during the melt season... we keeping track on this thread?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 07, 2019, 08:12:47 PM
Tom, I've been noticing that the minimum and peaks tend to be close together and its been the middle of the melt seasons that have been more record low... The time to panic for me is when Chukchi starts acting like the Bering in the Heart of winter 1/3rd as much while fluxuating drastically in size every other week.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 07, 2019, 08:54:07 PM
Even though 2016 had a similar minimum... it seemed like for a large part of the year we were way ahead of it...  Even the 2016 area minimum was only really for a three week period well below this year.  It seems we can't judge a year by a minimum... 2007 seemed like a very bad year and 2011 is often in the upper five?  Global ice missed 2016 numbers in area but seam to be keeping pace or besting the last two years which were also bad.  Global extent is another story... we are definitely looking at records below 2016 at this point.
The Global Extent in 2016 fell like a stone from now due to an unprecedented event in the Antarctic which very probably had nothing to do with the Arctic Freezing season. Probably an outlier rather like 2012 in the Arctic. Something extraordinary would have to happen for 2019 to get below 2016 by maximum in early November.

My last post about it is here....
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2136.msg232105.html#msg232105 ,
and is about JAXA Global Sea Ice Extent, which was 3.8 million km2 below the 1980's average on October 5th.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 07, 2019, 09:22:07 PM
Regardless of the minimum, CAB extent is edging towards the slow refreeze of 2018 (brown), 2012 is orange.
Wipneus amsr2 regional extent, oct6
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 07, 2019, 09:50:52 PM
Full-size version available, with September 2018, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232295.html#msg232295

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
September 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on October 07, 2019, 11:49:40 PM
Regardless of the minimum, CAB extent is edging towards the slow refreeze of 2018 (brown), 2012 is orange.
Wipneus amsr2 regional extent, oct6
Freezing is gonna speed up, people in tweeter talking about alignment and strengthening of tropospheric and stratospheric polar vortices,  “cooling the arctic and bringing mild temps to mid latitudes”.
ESS coast in particular should get to the point of freezing.

thanks to all who reflected on August slowdown of melting season after my post. I have very bad memory.
lack of wind pattern that could have hurt the otherwise well-protected CAB culprit #1.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 08, 2019, 02:24:01 AM
 I am certain that anything like the GAC would have halved the final numbers this year . Mosaic news reply 87 .. A-team SMOS runs show how little ice was left over 50cm thick . With a little bit of stirring almost any time in the late summer and the 50cm SMOS line could easily have been the minimum extent/area line .
 It was very much 'can sunny anti-cyclonic weather all summer melt all the ice' ?  Not yet . But scarily close . We are not so much 4,000,000 sq kms away from ice free . We are 50 cms away ! .. b.c.
 

 


?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 08, 2019, 10:52:47 AM
The IPCC's recently released "Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate":

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

Here's a recording of the associated press conference:

https://youtu.be/JYFMCU8L0zU

The first 37 mins are rather boring!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 08, 2019, 03:46:39 PM
...Like I said, it's a tease this year, 2019 extent graph almost intersecting 2007....
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 09, 2019, 06:59:51 AM
October 4-8.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg176362.html#msg176362).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Wildcatter on October 09, 2019, 07:44:30 AM
Someone keep an eye on the Beaufort Low this season!  + breakdowns of the Beaufort High. (sea level pressure).

It will be valuable insight for the freeze season, given some of correlation in the 2017 freeze season.

Anti-cyclonic circulation has been the general trend for about 15-20 years? And the connection with the gyre ice movement (clockwise).

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180320123450.htm (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/03/180320123450.htm)

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323879547_Collapse_of_the_2017_Winter_Beaufort_High_A_Response_to_Thinning_Sea_Ice (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/323879547_Collapse_of_the_2017_Winter_Beaufort_High_A_Response_to_Thinning_Sea_Ice)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 09, 2019, 12:19:07 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232452.html#msg232452

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/4 to 10/9, Forecast: 10/9 to 10/12.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 09, 2019, 01:34:10 PM
Temp anomalies still mostly +ve,
SST anomalies still mostly +ve.

Re-freeze still resisted?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: macid on October 09, 2019, 01:52:51 PM
I'm surprised the extent numbers are low after yesterday's polar crossing waft ripped the ice apart, polar view 8 to 9 oct around 100°E / 84-87°N approximately overlapped (click to play)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 09, 2019, 02:12:21 PM
There's still a bit of melt and compaction on the atlantic side
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 09, 2019, 03:15:27 PM
Charctic puts 2019 in second lowest extent for day of year - 4.879 against 4.882 for 2007.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 09, 2019, 03:17:26 PM
Oh, and I would like to make clear I have made many thousands of informative posts on this forum, it's just that my post count has been stuck at 62 since 1975.






 ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 09, 2019, 06:16:47 PM
Oh, and I would like to make clear I have made many thousands of informative posts on this forum, it's just that my post count has been stuck at 62 since 1975.
 ;)
I wish my age had been stuck since 1975.
____________________
Meanwhile...

What happened to the "Icy Desert" (to quote A-Team) that was the Arctic Ocean?

& how much fog (apparently a great way of restricting heat loss from open water) is still around?

A paper suggests that Water Vapour Content may well be significant..

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/8/12/241/htm
Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification
Quote
Abstract: Arctic amplification (AA) is the phenomenon by which climate change is amplified in the Arctic with respect to global changes. It is partly related to the ice–albedo feedback mechanism. The Arctic region is experiencing a strong surface warming and a decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. This well-documented phenomenon appears to be accelerating in the last decades.

Several feedbacks are involved in the AA , notably those associated with the atmospheric hydrological cycle ....

Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40%) south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%), also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20%) result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. ....Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

Arctic amplification (AA)  is the phenomenon by which climate change is amplified in the Arctic with respect to global changes. It is partly related to the ice–albedo feedback mechanism. The Arctic region is experiencing a strong surface warming and a decrease in sea ice extent and thickness. This well-documented phenomenon .. appears to be accelerating in the last decades. Several feedbacks are involved in the AA , notably those associated with the atmospheric hydrological cycle . The warming of the lower part of the Arctic atmosphere  is found to be sensitive to the albedo changes due to increasing pollution agents (such as black carbon) on the Arctic sea ice/snow , loss of sea ice coverage, as well as the increase of the atmospheric northward transport of heat and moisture. The spatiotemporal distribution of water vapour and the amplitude of its response to Arctic climate change are major sources of uncertainty in the understanding and prediction of the amplification mechanism ]. Cloud and water vapour-related feedbacks to the AA are of enhanced interest
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: NotaDenier on October 10, 2019, 01:48:43 AM
Temp anomalies still mostly +ve,
SST anomalies still mostly +ve.

Re-freeze still resisted?

Anyone notice you can see the shape of the ice pack in the temperature chart? Kind of cool.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on October 10, 2019, 06:01:51 AM
October 4-8.
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: peterlvmeng on October 10, 2019, 06:39:36 AM
The slow down freezing is predictable. Does anyone remember that the torching heat and solar insolation surrounding the arctic basin from May to August? Now it is time for those heat totally release from the ocean until the accelerating freezing will come. Most people care about the arctic sea ice minimum. But I have to say more ice melt in the August means less heat in the arctic ocean. More ice left in the August and September means more heat restored in the ocean. Now it is time for those heat to dominate the situation. Interesting!!!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 10, 2019, 09:31:57 AM
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.

If it was waves that did it I don't think they were from Lorenzo. There have been bigger storms in the far North Atlantic recently.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 10, 2019, 09:54:34 AM
indeed .. Lorenzo died over Ireland . But .. it had been expected to head Greenland way . It didn't , but it's warmth and moisture mostly did , joining and strengthening the storm that did provide the wind and warmth we have now seen the results of around Svalbard .
  the shape of the ice pack being seen in the 2m anomaly is becoming routine this time of year .. look back a year in the forecasts , it almost couldn't be otherwise  ... b.c.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 10, 2019, 10:45:20 AM
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 10, 2019, 11:42:50 AM
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.
I think the continual export into FJL and Svalbard area over the summer was more unusual. Ice along the atlantic edge has been weakened or melted by sitting over a warm current all that time. Now the drift has temporarily? changed direction it offers little resistance. Yes, it's strange that this has come so late.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, oct3-9
edit: looking at the forecast, export should resume shortly.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 10, 2019, 12:14:12 PM
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 10, 2019, 12:55:01 PM
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

Lovely figure gerontocrat
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 10, 2019, 01:19:45 PM
The remaining weeks of October are very important. Normally it should be a century uptick each day. 2019 can delay the fast refreeze because the peripheral seas have the extra heat stored. I'm curious to see how it will go. But I'm confident the inner basin must refreeze by early November anyway
Attached is a graph showing average, 2019 and 2018 extent change from mid Sept to mid-November (JAXA data).

The low 2019 refreeze since minimum is impressive, as was 2018 until now. My guess is that persisting high SST anomalies and +ve Arctic temperature anomalies averaging around +3 for the next week or so will keep refreeze below average for a bit longer - & then zoom up as in 2018 (or maybe not)?

Lovely figure gerontocrat
You can see it every day gradually morphing on the Sea Ice Extent & Area Data thread.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on October 10, 2019, 04:59:11 PM
SIE growth is slowing. Would not surprise me if it stays in 2nd place for a while.

Agree!

My guess is for about 10-14 days max before it becomes lowest again.

<Snipped> currently there is not that much cold enough
water to allow for significant ice-growth, given the right conditions, even a small drop would
be possible
even though not that probably at this time of the year.

BTW a 5-10 days long slow increase, given the melt onset in Antarctica, could see a significant
worsening of the global sea-ice situation as well.


There we went ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 10, 2019, 06:30:49 PM

My opinion is this season demonstrated that there isn't enough insolation to melt the ice above 80N from a 'normal' freeze season. Too much ice is built up and it doesn't receive enough energy directly from the sun.

For that 4m km2 to melt out there has to be more heat and therefore less ice (duh!). That heat has to come from the atmosphere through the 9 months of the year that insolation isn't dominant, or from the ocean as the result of a big storm or two late in the melt season.

This part of the freeze season is critical, if the seas south of 80N are warm then there will be less Freezing Degree Days over the main pack. Increased water vapor will effect any energy transfer, such as fog over the ice edge preventing both heat loss and the vaporistation/condenstation cycle transferring a lot of energy, and perhaps from snowfall providing insulation to the ice.

It's going to be interesting to watch the next couple of months to see if the thickness of the central pack grows slowly...





Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 10, 2019, 07:30:26 PM
Could be that Lorenzo's waves took a toll on the Atlantic Ocean side, especially around Svalbard?
Strange to see such a drop on October.
I think the continual export into FJL and Svalbard area over the summer was more unusual. Ice along the atlantic edge has been weakened or melted by sitting over a warm current all that time. Now the drift has temporarily? changed direction it offers little resistance. Yes, it's strange that this has come so late.
unihamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, oct3-9
edit: looking at the forecast, export should resume shortly.

That's not just drift. There is extensive melt happening, most noticeably on the tongue of ice that had extended towards the Barents between FJI and Svalbard. Also along the ice extending south along the coast of Greenland.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on October 10, 2019, 08:39:40 PM
I think the continual export into FJL and Svalbard area over the summer was more unusual. Ice along the atlantic edge has been weakened or melted by sitting over a warm current all that time. Now the drift has temporarily? changed direction it offers little resistance. Yes, it's strange that this has come so late.

That's not just drift. There is extensive melt happening, most noticeably on the tongue of ice that had extended towards the Barents between FJI and Svalbard. Also along the ice extending south along the coast of Greenland.
Whether it's [compaction]drift or melt, it does indeed feel a bit late for this & had it happened a month ago the minimum would have been even more interesting.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 10, 2019, 09:19:36 PM
Hope it's okay to speculate... I guess a tie with 2012 wasn't out of the question this year at some point, but I've been wondering about how much thicker 2012 ice was compared to 19.  If the ice was  thicker, perhaps it did not 'stick together'* like it seemed to this year instead of deep LONG cracks typical of thicker ice which then more easily separates???

* the ice this year seemed to be sticking together with few long cracks seen on the edges bar N.Greenland... This 'sticking together' of slightly warmer/thinner ice may counteract GAC type weather??? BTW... what's up with Global sea ice?  Challenge 16 for sure!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on October 10, 2019, 09:35:38 PM
We have now closed on the time of year, last year, where nine of the last 12 months were spent in the top three and three months broke all kind of new records.  Such a three-year cycle of record lows seems much more like a collapse than a gradual increase melt?   
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 11, 2019, 08:08:03 AM
October 6-10.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg176655.html#msg176655).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 11, 2019, 01:13:22 PM
The third MOSAiC IMB buoy has now gone live, somewhat confusingly named #2:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-11

This one is literally on very thin ice:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 11, 2019, 03:42:57 PM
Given the current SST's it's almost inevitable now that 2019 amsr2-uhh CAB extent will cross the 2012 line(orange), will it cross 2018??(brown)
wipneus CAB regional extent, oct10 https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 11, 2019, 03:43:48 PM
Could get interesting.
2nd lowest extent for this time of year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on October 11, 2019, 04:51:31 PM
Despite the positive AO, sea ice is struggling to form, not too surprising considering the heat intake especially across the ESS and the early ice melt across the Pacific side of the basin and as time goes by, expect this situation to become the norm as the Arctic gets ever warmer.

What is interesting for me however is despite similar results between 2018 and 2019 in terms of a slow refreeze, the weather for both years is completely different. 2018 had a persistent pattern of compacting winds against the ice pack and alot of warm air entering the basin with record breaking temperatures across the Chuckchi I believe, 2019 had an Arctic high in September but barely any WAA however the upper(850) temperatures were quite high and the PV struggling to form. This broken down in October to a more positive AO but ice is struggling to form still.

So all in all and imo, 2019 is showing what we probably expect in the future with a fast melt and very warm temperatures and a slow initial refreeze whereas 2018 slow refreeze was all down to the weather during September and October and if any year experienced that type of weather, then it would of lead to a slow refreeze regardless how much ice there was. Scary thought to think what the extent would be now if we had those conditions in September and October in 2018 this year!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on October 11, 2019, 05:05:39 PM
Great graphics, guys.  Amazing how the Atlantic Front receded like that so late in the season, eh.

There's a storm in the Barents ... can't help but stare at it and wonder, what the heck is coming next...!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 12, 2019, 11:49:52 AM
Sea ice extent in the Arctic is now once again “lowest for the date”, since the University of Bremen's AMSRE/AMSR2 based records began at least:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-12
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 12, 2019, 01:08:40 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg232846.html#msg232846

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/7 to 10/12, Forecast: 10/12 to 10/15.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: AndyW on October 12, 2019, 04:31:22 PM
Atlantic side gone from one extreme to another for the start of the freeze season.

Normally freezing from less ice extent helps the accumulation  of ice but it will be interesting to sea how this runs up to December/ January, and then how quickly it melts next year.

The tongue of multiyear ice into the East Siberian Sea  being melted away this summer is probably the big conversation point nobody is talking about ...

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on October 12, 2019, 11:12:49 PM
If we are eyeballing DMIs graph over Arctic temperaturen, we should start to see some decent extent gains soon. As Friv has pointed out earlier in another thread we should be very grateful that the melting in ESS was so resistent. Otherwise, the situation would have been a lot worse.

Without saying that we won't see what you suggest, we should still keep in mind that the regions above 80N are mostly ice covered by now and the reminder of the AO is quite warm still.

I personally expect a general delay of about 2-3 weeks from pre-2010 averages.

EDIT: copied/corrected from the data thread because it belongs here ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 13, 2019, 07:51:09 AM
October 8-12.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg176921.html#msg176921).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 13, 2019, 09:17:59 AM
October 8-12.
It appears as if extent growth is back at last (check out especially the Atlantic side).

On a more general note, now is the time of year for high growth on the Siberian side. Laptev is the most predictable, with ~600k of area to be added in the next 3 weeks. Kara and ESS are larger, but their timeline is spread over a longer period. The ESS could gain 800k of area in the next 2 weeks (2012) or just 300k in 3 weeks (2016). Kara could gain 500k by the end of October (2015), or just 200k in 5 weeks (2016).
Of course, there's also the CAB, that should have been past its growth stage already. From here on, it could gain 400k of area in 1 week (2012) or 400k in 3 weeks (2018).
Bottom line, area should be picking up fast, around 2.5M in 3 weeks. Gut feeling says it will be slower than most years, but still it should be much faster than the past few weeks.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Ardeus on October 13, 2019, 04:27:01 PM
The IPCC's recently released "Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate":

https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/home/

Here's a recording of the associated press conference:

https://youtu.be/JYFMCU8L0zU

The first 37 mins are rather boring!

And then at 50:00 minutes it gets really exciting when she refers to this paragraph:

"It is very likely that there will be at least one sea-ice free Arctic summer out of 10 years for warming at 2 degrees C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years at 1.5 degrees C”

What's the reasoning behind this and how does it stand against the trends on the ice volume chart? Saying something like that is just surreal.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on October 14, 2019, 12:52:24 AM
"It is very likely that there will be at least one sea-ice free Arctic summer out of 10 years for warming at 2 degrees C, with the frequency decreasing to one sea-ice-free Arctic summer every 100 years at 1.5 degrees C”

What's the reasoning behind this and how does it stand against the trends on the ice volume chart?

IPCC is said to be trying to improve their communication skills, but there is still room for improvement. 
RE: "sea-ice free Arctic summer".
   A literal interpretation would be that means zero ASI for every day between June 20 and September 21.
     vs. September average going below 1 million km2 Extent.
     vs.  single day September minimum going below 1 million km2 Extent.
     vs. September as a whole having zero ice.
     vs.  single day September minimum having zero ice.

So which is it?  More precise specification of dates and definition of terms for statements about future ice losses would greatly improve clarity and reduce confusion about what is being said.

Speaking of confusion, this discussion belongs in the "When will the Arctic Go Ice Free" thread, not this one.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 14, 2019, 03:24:46 AM
Sea-ice thickness looks exceptionally bad just now (bottom right).
This does not bode well for rapid extent recovery when the extent is 2nd lowest on record for this time of year, and closing in on lowest.

Comparing years.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on October 14, 2019, 08:20:35 AM
Booyah, JAXA extent lowest on record for the date: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2533.msg233023.html#msg233023
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 14, 2019, 08:36:59 AM
Compaction is extreme, so there is no easy to freeze ice; SSTs are way above anything I have seen before, and there is warmer than average air over the Arctic the next few days. I would say that it is likely that 2019 will get to the first place some time October. Refreeze should be very very slow.
Or the Arctic will trick me again as it usually does :)

...and amazingly I got this one right! Even I am surprised :)

And amazingly, SSTs are still way above the lowest extent years (2007,12,16) on the Pacific Side, although colder on the Atlantic side (see attached pic). Refreeze should still be very slow
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 14, 2019, 11:57:05 AM
Conditions in pretty much the entire Russian side of the Arctic are terribly warm at the moment. I don't see any real indication that a catch-up will be happening soon either.

There is evidence of a refreeze beginning in the Laptev but it is likely to be anaemic and limited to the coast.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 15, 2019, 08:21:32 AM
October 10-14.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg177177.html#msg177177).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 15, 2019, 01:52:01 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233143.html#msg233143

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/10 to 10/15, Forecast: 10/15 to 10/18.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 16, 2019, 12:35:19 PM
The Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring have just published the first CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map of the 2019/20 freezing season:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2019/#Oct-16

Quote
Note in particular the dark blue area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 16, 2019, 04:25:52 PM
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 17, 2019, 08:39:43 AM
September 26 - October 16 (fast).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 17, 2019, 09:38:21 AM
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 17, 2019, 09:56:04 AM
Ice begets ice. Even above 80N there is no ice creation except relatively close to the ice edge. What happens when there is no ice to begin with?
The shore begets ice as well.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 17, 2019, 10:23:43 AM
Indeed. In Aluminium's awesome animation that is evident.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 17, 2019, 01:34:51 PM
Someone theorized a couple years ago that when we lose all the summer ice, autumn ice growth will start from the edges. it seems reasonable to me now, although first ice will probably start to "grow" at the CAA/North Greenland and spread from there during the winter seasons of the future...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on October 17, 2019, 03:57:34 PM
We are now at all-time low NSIDC 5-day average extent for the date:

(https://i.imgur.com/XcOuLC3.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 17, 2019, 07:30:01 PM
A precarious combination.
Lowest extent for this time of year + lowest volume.
Extent - NSIDC
Volume - DMI
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 18, 2019, 12:06:59 AM
In the last week or so....
- The Central Arctic Sea (North of 80) is freezing quickly,
- Most other seas are freezing very slowly,

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.

Click gif to start - repeats 4 times

The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 18, 2019, 07:34:52 AM

Perhaps the persistent high +ve SSTs and the Arctic temperature anomalies (-ve near the pole, mostly +ve or very +ve elsewhere) have something to do with it.


The arctic temperature anomalies are more likely the result of the SSTs, not causing them. water has a vastly larger specific heat capacity than air.

I am no expert, but also think that at this time of the year what matters is SSTs and most everything else derives from that. Also, cloudiness plays an important part but that is mostly driven by ocean temp differences (with the surrounding land and the upper atmosphere).

High SSTs keep the air warm and clouds keep the warmth in the system, slowing refreeze very much and keeping SSTs still high, and you go back to the beginning of the sentence.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jontenoy on October 18, 2019, 10:08:50 AM
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 18, 2019, 11:35:49 AM
Extent is a LOT lower than the next lowest . I wonder what effect this could have on next September if the slope of the re freeze graph keeps to this rate ?
The ice could be more thin than usuall. But the freezing season is long enough to make up to 2m-thickness FYI. Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 18, 2019, 11:49:36 AM
Quote
Extra snowfalls can protect the ice in May and June like it was in 2017...

Snow has both saved us and failed us before.  I would prefer not to reach a new record minimum maximum and run the risk of a record melt season. There might not be a way back from that.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 18, 2019, 01:12:29 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233434.html#msg233434

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/13 to 10/18, Forecast: 10/18 to 10/21.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RikW on October 18, 2019, 01:28:03 PM
Finally a century increase, first of this melting season;

In the last 30 years (1990-2019) only in 1996 the first century increase was later, november 26th, but 1996 also had the highest minimum in the last 3 decades.

Another maybe interesting fact, since minimum the gain was 1.271.299; When we check other years, the gain from minimum was till october 17th was on average 2.1M. (90's: 2.18, 00's 2.09, 10's 2.07). That it is the lowest gain from minimum till october 17th in the last 30 years; 2018 2nd in that ranking, 2007 3rd;


Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on October 18, 2019, 02:05:36 PM
If Jaxa is correct, the most substantial gain today (yesterday) was on the Russian side. Coastal ice is expanding in all 3 seas (Kara, Laptev, ESS). The main pack looks to be just miles away from the Russian coast, at the Kara-Laptev border behind SZ, and there looks to be some ice in the middle of the ocean in ESS. I don't if it will become some kind of ESS arm or will it disappear on radar. I just know I wouldn't rely much on gfs temp anomalies on climatereanalyzer because the model can't include the ice that will probably form in the next days. This is a 10 days out anomaly forecast and you can clearly see an almost perfect ice pack border shape from today, surrounded by red color.

(https://pamola.um.maine.edu/wx_frames/gfs/arc-lea/t2anom/2019-10-18-06z/80.png)

And  if you take the slideshow, red "origin" doesn't move at all, it just expands towards the pole (which is probably real like a normal "heat" wave) and then "destroys" shape of the pack.  I mean anomaly itself is probably correct, it's just the progression (or the lack of) of it that is questionable, since model can't calculate new ice that is forming.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on October 18, 2019, 06:37:28 PM
look back a year and the temp anomaly outlook was very similar . However 10 days later the reality was a much colder Arctic . The refreeze had accelerated to @ 170k sqkm per day .. a rate that was maintained for @ 3 weeks and earlier long-range forecasts were proved meaningless . b.c.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 19, 2019, 07:23:13 AM
A GIF showing the freezing of the fjords northwest Greenland, taken from DMI Lincon crop.

The freezing starts around the 17th of September here.

From 06.08, many many frames, big file, click to play.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 19, 2019, 09:08:44 AM
Great animation, thank you b_l.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 19, 2019, 11:35:01 AM
Welcome, Oren! Glad you like it. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: aslan on October 19, 2019, 12:17:23 PM
Even for the Arctic Ocean, we will be hard press to end the winter with at least a 2m first year ice, putting the risk of a memory of this summer. The islands on the russian side are nearing or breaking record which are only a few years old, like Ostrov Vrangel :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982&month=10&year=2016

Or Ostrov Kotelnyj :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2019

versus 2018

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21432&month=10&year=2018

Or Ostrov Vize :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2019

versus 2016 :

http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=20069&month=10&year=2016

And again, a layer of low level clouds is keeping in check the refreze, as shown for example with Ostrov Vrangel between 300 and 600 meters since the end of the Summer :

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=21982&decoded=yes&ndays=50&ano=2019&mes=10&day=19&hora=06

And SSTs are still extrememly warm, locally up to 7 or 8 (!) °C. And with the clouds in place, cooling is going to be slow. It is a sure bet that southern Chukchi would not freeze before December or January, and it is increasingly likely that this sea could not fully refreeze before the end of the winter.
For now, the downward IR flux at surface is a bit less averaged over Arctic comapred to record holder 2018 and 2016, meaning a bit more heat is escaping the furnace of the Arctic. But we are starting with an ocean wich is way warmer than in 2016 or 2018 and to cool down this thing this small diff is not enough...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 19, 2019, 01:44:19 PM
Hullo aslan,

Really great to get real data from the Russian sites. I don't get to see it very often and the Russian Arctic shore is awfully long. Keep 'em going every so often, please.

The Chukchi & ESS Sea Ice graphs are writing lines on the unused part of the graph paper big-time.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on October 19, 2019, 03:52:42 PM
Arctic Basin at lowest extent for this time of year.
https://tinyurl.com/yyhw8bs4
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2019, 05:02:15 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 October 2019 (5 day trailing average) 4,313,171 km2 ...

Arctic Sea Ice Area is 752 k below the 2010's average.
...
In general, as climate change has caused, decade by decade, sea ice loss in the Arctic, I would expect the end of a decade to have less than the decade's average.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 19, 2019, 06:11:34 PM
Not by 752k if you think of the 2010's average as 5 years before today and a trend of around 80k per year.
Anyway the point of the post was to contrast the Central Arctic Sea with the other seas.

The mosaic project is happening when the Central Arctic Sea is not behaving in line with recent years.

And in considerable contrast with its neighbours - chukchi ess especially
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 19, 2019, 08:11:18 PM
Not really on-topic but surely of interest for anyone following this thread:

Omega Tau Podcast - Weather forecasting at the ECMWF

Quote
Earlier this year I visited the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, a European organization that produces global weather forecasts and performs research on how to improve those. The episode has three parts. First, Hilda Carr gives us an overview of the organization, its purpose, and its history. Then I talk with Peter Bauer about weather and climate modeling and about encoding these models efficiently in software programs that run on supercomputers. Part three is a conversation with Tony McNally about where the ECMWF gets its data and how it is continuously fed into the "running" model.

Direct link >> http://omegataupodcast.net/326-weather-forecasting-at-the-ecmwf/

Audio link >> https://overcast.fm/+T6jAOOlk
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 20, 2019, 08:23:11 AM
October 12-19.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg177709.html#msg177709).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 21, 2019, 12:42:05 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg233673.html#msg233673

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/16 to 10/21, Forecast: 10/21 to 10/24.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 21, 2019, 02:06:18 PM
October 12-19.

There seems to be some spontaneous growth in the ESS. Isn't that area where uniquorn is searching for shoals?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on October 21, 2019, 02:15:23 PM
About time.  ;)

And yes that is the area were most of the examples were from because it is rather shallow.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on October 22, 2019, 01:57:32 AM
When is the freeze season going to begin?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: tzupancic on October 22, 2019, 06:48:09 AM
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 22, 2019, 07:32:07 AM
October 17-21.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg177930.html#msg177930).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 22, 2019, 08:04:27 AM
.... Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

It seems to be THE most important factor
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on October 22, 2019, 08:19:34 AM
October 17-21.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg177930.html#msg177930).

Interesting difference between the two years - last year the growth is almost all from the ice edge, into the ESS and Chuckhi, while this year the growth seems to be mostly from the Siberian shores into the Laptev and western EES while the Chuckhi and Beaufort seem to be stalling big time.

Edit: Lookin at Null-School, there have been persistent cold winds blowing from the interior and into the Laptev, should explain the ice growth there.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: KiwiGriff on October 22, 2019, 09:21:52 AM
Quote
It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.
Many have nothing to add and don't want to get yelled at for cluttering up the thread with their inane chatter.
Albedo, ocean heat content , decline of old ice .
Weather is the other factor.
One would suggest that weather is all that is stopping A BOE in the near term.. less than a decade.
Then it will get truly interesting. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: slow wing on October 22, 2019, 09:22:11 AM
.... Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

It seems to be THE most important factor


Wondering if the record late refreeze may be due, at least in large part, to the Arctic basin having been stormy since the extent minimum?


I have posted my speculation on the importance of storms in the refreeze here on the Stupid Questions thread. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,143.msg233772.html#msg233772)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pearscot on October 22, 2019, 05:28:28 PM
I'm amazed to see how the arctic is looking. I thought the minimum would have been lower, but I normally get it wrong when it comes to my predictions here.

What a strange refreeze season though! I suspect all that heat (well relative heat) in the oceans remains a formidable force. Very shocking to me...I thought the ice was going to grow rather quickly given how weak of an ending the season had.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 22, 2019, 05:46:08 PM
Quote
It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.
Many have nothing to add and don't want to get yelled at for cluttering up the thread with their inane chatter.
Albedo, ocean heat content , decline of old ice .
Weather is the other factor.
One would suggest that weather is all that is stopping A BOE in the near term.. less than a decade.
Then it will get truly interesting.

My understanding is this: The heat lost through emission into the atmosphere is what cools the Earth. There isn't enough insolation to balance the heat loss through the year at the poles. The oceans and the Atmosphere transfer heat to the poles from the tropics where insolation is greater than the heat loss from emissions. The Arctic ocean is effectively insulated from oceanic transport by the continually refreshed halocline. The only way to create a BOE is transport of heat and water vapor by the atmosphere to north of 80 degrees, even from the surrounding peripheral seas. I'm not sure if this is what you mean by weather? If it's cold then there wont be a BOE, if it's warm and wet then there will be?


Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 22, 2019, 06:01:13 PM
The historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice extent is quite noteworthy, to say the least. It is also fascinating that so little attention has been paid to this ongoing event on this forum. Nevertheless, it would appear that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean/system is an important factor.

We're all paying attention to it from what I can see. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on October 22, 2019, 07:17:30 PM
Barrow webcam is on it's way back up to full service, just for those who are interested.

You have the visit their site and read the NOTE: to see what i mean ;)

The ASIG image does not represent the actual conditions.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 22, 2019, 08:33:43 PM
What a drift map. Don't think I have seen the just about the entire Arctic Sea Ice being shoved in one direction before.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on October 22, 2019, 08:37:00 PM
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 22, 2019, 08:47:52 PM
Good thing that didn't happen in July or August  :-\
The MYI leaving to the Fram strait and being replaced by FYI (or even open water) is not a good thing. We may start the next melt season with the thin FYI north of 80 latitude and very thin ice on the peripheral seas.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 22, 2019, 09:12:41 PM
Generally everywhere on the low side but it could have been worse :). CAB extent hasn't passed the 2018 line yet (brown)
Wipneus amsr2-uhh regional extent, oct21
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Sarat on October 22, 2019, 09:25:39 PM
Wondering how much ice if at all we will see in the Bearing Sea this year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: KiwiGriff on October 22, 2019, 10:20:52 PM
please excuse my yammering inane crap.
 
Quote
My understanding is this: The heat lost through emission into the atmosphere is what cools the Earth. There isn't enough insolation to balance the heat loss through the year at the poles. The oceans and the Atmosphere transfer heat to the poles from the tropics where insolation is greater than the heat loss from emissions. The Arctic ocean is effectively insulated from oceanic transport by the continually refreshed halocline. The only way to create a BOE is transport of heat and water vapor by the atmosphere to north of 80 degrees, even from the surrounding peripheral seas. I'm not sure if this is what you mean by weather? If it's cold then there wont be a BOE, if it's warm and wet then there will be?
Yes but.
The seas in the arctic are warming despite your claim they can not .
 http://oceanrep.geomar.de/10968/1/2010_Dmitrenko_JPO4339.pdf
https://archive.arcus.org/arcss/sass/sass1projects/downloads/10_steele_warmingtrends_08.pdf

ffs do I really have to explain the term weather on here?
weather
noun
the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.
 That word weather contains an entire scientific  discipline we call meteorology.
The interplay of weather on ice state is a hell of a lot more complex than warm wet= melt  and cold dry= no melt. 
Cold dry, less clouds, more  insolation, less atmospheric heat transport, more radiation to space , more sublimation. Warm wet, more clouds, less  insolation, more atmospheric heat transport, less radiation to space, less sublimation.  Wind effects sea state,   ocean mixing, ocean heat content profiles, salinity profiles. Wind can mean less ice or thicker pack ice . Wet falls as snow more insulation less surface melt,  etc etc etc...
 Weather is a complex random variable. You need at lest a doctorate and decades of work to begin to understand its full implications on ice state  .....

There is plenty of debate that we have reached a plateau in ice decline based on extent.
The same idea is not supported by the decline in volume.
 Continue the trend in ice volume/ extent  down and add the known variability from weather we see in the ice records.
How soon before BOE is a possibility? What implication will that have on weather and most interesting politics?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on October 23, 2019, 06:09:21 AM
“How soon before BOE is a possibility?”

About 14 years, if the linear trend continues
That’s a seriously scary number and worth mentioning in conversation, where appropriate.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png

With the spiky nature of the data, more likely to be sooner than that than not.
Also have to consider the many competing +ve and –ve feedbacks, but the timescale is so short, less than half of the Piomas record, I think their effect is unlikely to deflect the trend.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on October 23, 2019, 02:32:27 PM
Some advances beginning to happen
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on October 23, 2019, 04:50:41 PM
From an article on the MOSAIC thread:

Many of the best floes identified as being at least 80cm (32 inches) thick in satellite images have turned out to be less than half that.

...

Preliminary analysis suggests that the ice in this region is much younger than usually seen at this time of year. The ice around the ship started forming about 300 days ago – around two months later than the usual onset of the Arctic winter freeze. Those two months of missing freezing make a big difference, reducing the ice thickness by around half.

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191018-the-problem-of-thinning-arctic-sea-ice?ocid=global_future_rss

It will be interesting to see how slow this years refreeze will be. It looks like the slow pattern will continue.

At least with MOSAIC we will have a closer view then usual.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Comradez on October 24, 2019, 02:30:13 AM
Just think:  someday in our lifetimes we will be having polls about how many ice-free days there will be in the arctic each year. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: tzupancic on October 24, 2019, 04:28:33 AM
As the historically late advancement of the Arctic Sea Ice re-freeze continues, it would appear that understanding what changes in the system are affecting the current observed results would be useful.  I suggested that accumulated heat in the Arctic Ocean system is important and various sources such as http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/satellite/index.uk.php support that hypothesis.  Data does indicate that heat has increased in the Arctic Ocean. If so, where did this heat come from and how did it get there? This appears to be an important and interesting question.  I would suggest that aside from transport from outside the Arctic basin, total solar irradiance on the Arctic Sea itself had a significant impact on adding heat to the Arctic Ocean system in 2019. This was significantly affected by weather, of course, and also by early season reductions in albedo. 

Comments?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on October 24, 2019, 04:40:26 AM
Early loss of ice area inside the Arctic Basin as well as outside easily explains the accumulated heat. Check out the series of attached charts (big thanks to Tealight / Nico Sun for providing these in real time). Note the AWP calculation does not take clouds/weather into account, just solar angles and ice/water albedo.
Not surprisingly, the same areas with the highest anomalies are the same ones with relatively delayed refreeze. I expect this pattern to continue in November and December.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: tzupancic on October 24, 2019, 04:58:52 AM
Forum members will recall that earlier this year the discussion was largely about conditioning the ice. In particular heat transfer from water vapor just above the ice was seen as key to creating melt ponds that would drive melt. Low humidity, clear skies would not do this.  Solar energy impacting the system was not seen as a key driver of sea ice melt.

Thus, when significant low humidity clear skies occurred over substantial areas in the arctic basin many predicted a non record breaking melt. Which is exactly what transpired.

But what is the significance of the heat that entered the Arctic Sea system?  Is this added energy now affecting the re-freeze?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 24, 2019, 07:43:14 AM
October 19-23.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg178160.html#msg178160).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 24, 2019, 08:14:09 AM
...  I would suggest that aside from transport from outside the Arctic basin, total solar irradiance on the Arctic Sea itself had a significant impact on adding heat to the Arctic Ocean system in 2019. This was significantly affected by weather, of course, and also by early season reductions in albedo. 

Comments?

I would think that the whole Arctic Amplification thing is like this: heat reaching the Earth is mostly accumulated in oceans. So oceans are warmer. This warmth finds its way to the Arctic ("Atlantification" and "Pacification") making the ice extent smaller, and ice thinner. This makes it possible for the Sun to melt huge chunks of ice during summer, which leaves huge areas blue, and these absorb sunlight (seen on Nico's charts) which make the Arctic ocean even warmer.
And this happens every year. Some years the weather is more "helpful" to further this process than in others, but anyway the direction is obvious: warmer Arctic ocean, and more and more summer absorption of the Sun's energy.

This year was oustanding in regards to the above, as can be seen on the SST charts, attached (even relative to the warmest years the seas are still warm up there)

Sorry for the simplifications...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 24, 2019, 11:33:13 AM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 24, 2019, 12:26:43 PM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.


Who told you that? I attach 10hpa GFS forecast T+8 days. I see no split at all
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on October 24, 2019, 12:27:42 PM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.


Any hard data to substantiate the claim that "splits are happening earlier year by year"?

I don't think so

EDIT: just to clarify things, vortex splits are caused by sudden stratospheric warming events and happen 10-30 miles high up, as written well here:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/polar-vortex/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on October 24, 2019, 12:47:29 PM
My bad. I meant 70 hPa Level. Also, forgot to add link.

Well, just my Experience.
I remember 2013- 14 Winter saw this Configuration firstly in December, 2018 also around end of December.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 24, 2019, 01:11:59 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234080.html#msg234080

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on October 24, 2019, 03:34:09 PM
Now only volume data left for a slam-dunk record on all metrics for this date.

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 October 2019 (5 day trailing average)  4,665,239 km2

2016 is now MORE than 2019 by just 19 k, so on this day 2019 area is lowest in the satellite record. It is still likely that from now on 2016 will be the year to watch - very low area gains for some time to come (see graph).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 24, 2019, 05:36:04 PM
Forum members will recall that earlier this year the discussion was largely about conditioning the ice. In particular heat transfer from water vapor just above the ice was seen as key to creating melt ponds that would drive melt. Low humidity, clear skies would not do this.  Solar energy impacting the system was not seen as a key driver of sea ice melt.

Thus, when significant low humidity clear skies occurred over substantial areas in the arctic basin many predicted a non record breaking melt. Which is exactly what transpired.

But what is the significance of the heat that entered the Arctic Sea system?  Is this added energy now affecting the re-freeze?

I thought that the discussion was around this hypothesis; cloudy weather reduces heat loss and/or increases melting until around mid may depending on latitude. As the days lengthen insolation becomes the main source of heat and clearer days would transfer more heat to the ice. Melt ponds are the first indicator of  melting, and dramatically reduce albedo. I don't recall individuals saying clear skies would reduce ice melt in the high insolation months.

More heat in the ocean from decreased ice cover will slow down refreeze, particularly if that heat has been mixed in at depth. Cooling the surface water will induce convection if the salinity profile allows. However, a slow refreeze would be better in many ways for cooling the earth. When the ice forms it will insulate the mixed layer. Surface temperatures will fall further, because less heat is being transferred to the atmosphere from the ocean; it traps more heat in the ocean, and, presumably, slows down ice thickening. Putting a layer of insulation between the relatively warm ocean and the very cold Arctic night is not conducive to cooling the ocean

The best analogy I can think of is coffee, Putting a thin lid on it is a VERY effective way of stopping it cooling, as long as the lid doesn't melt, which makes the whole analogy rather disappointing for coffee drinkers.



Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on October 24, 2019, 05:53:24 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234080.html#msg234080

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
The wind bouts are arresting the growth of ice over ESS (temporarily)
And keeping the Chukchi wide open.
Chukchi has already passed the record of recent years by so much...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 24, 2019, 06:26:01 PM
I suggest that no matter how we got here, there is a connection between
- where the ice is and is not,
- SST anomalies,
- Surface temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 24, 2019, 06:43:18 PM
I suggest that no matter how we got here, there is a connection between
- where the ice is and is not,
- SST anomalies,
- Surface temperature anomalies.

Warm water stops the ice forming and heats up the air... if the air warn't warm then, I guess, the ocean wouldn't be losing heat....
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on October 24, 2019, 07:28:52 PM
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: KiwiGriff on October 24, 2019, 08:37:47 PM
As always reading the comments adds to knowledge. 
One small piece of the jigsaw not mentioned is some of the heat released from the oceans in autumn results in warming the surrounding land rather than being lost to space.
Some of this energy will be returned to the atmosphere over the sea  ice in spring hastening melting .
Of course as always it is far more complex than a few words will convey but most can full in the details.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 24, 2019, 08:56:40 PM
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.

Exactly. That's a much better explanation than I gave. The air has a much lower specific heat capacity than water, so water is the temperature 'buffer'. Once ice forms the ocean can no longer transfer heat to the air as effectively, and the temperatures will tend to the long term average.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 24, 2019, 09:16:27 PM
Probably best to use SST rather than anomalies, they only add another layer of complexity to think about. They look (and are) more dramatic though.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on October 24, 2019, 09:48:54 PM
I think the corresponding shape of ice-covered areas on the one hand and higher surface temperature anomalies on the other hand can be easily explained. If in the long term (e.g. median 1981-2010) a certain area of the Arctic Ocean has been usually covered with ice at a certain date and this year it is not, the difference in surface temperature (ice-covered = well below - 2°C; ice-free = above -1.8°C, maybe above 0°C) must be clearly visible in the SST anomaly map.

Exactly. That's a much better explanation than I gave. The air has a much lower specific heat capacity than water, so water is the temperature 'buffer'. Once ice forms the ocean can no longer transfer heat to the air as effectively, and the temperatures will tend to the long term average.
What about that heating 1 m3 of Water requires the same amount of energy as heating 3,000 m3 of air?
What about thermal conductivity?

Add wind, sea ice drift, ocean swells, cloud, fog and suddenly we are talking models with big computers and they still get it wrong.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 24, 2019, 10:29:35 PM

I think I'm missing the point. I'll try stating this in a different way to try and understand.

If there is, say, typically, 0.5m of ice, then there is less transmission of heat out of the ocean to the atmosphere because of the ice's insulating properties. If there is no ice, the ocean heat can freely escape to the atmosphere. If there is more heat coming out of the ocean the air will be warmer than over sea ice. It doesn't take much of a drop in water temperature to warm the air to the same temp. Of course, there may well be more water vapor to trap heat from the ocean, but that would also correlate with lack of ice, as one would expect both the temp and the frost point to be higher than average.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on October 24, 2019, 10:48:16 PM
tzu "comments"
My 2c, the slowing of the Gulf stream/N.Atlantic drift imho is caused by mixing with arctic waters which are inert and hold fast to the American mainland, that inertia is reflected in the size of the cold blob which is the G.S./Arctic water mixed to latitudinal equilibrium. The cold blob forces the G.S. south, it's relative inertia means it spends more time further south, travels further, gets warmer, more saline and arrives later. The loss of ice cover in Barentz has allowed more Atlantic water to force it's way into the Arctic over that shelf, in turn this has led to an [unconfirmed] steady increase in flow at depth though Fram. In turn this acts a little like a flywheel and if more water is leaving here more must flow in, according to 'current' circumstances. Generally this means increased inflow from the Atlantic either side of Svalbard or from the Pacific influenced by tides and barometric pressure, so extremely variable on any day. Every tidal cycle can add a little more power to the 'flywheel', and given the activity at Humbolt it seems something similar is evolving in Nares.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 24, 2019, 11:32:52 PM
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: harpy on October 26, 2019, 12:38:52 AM
I think that the anomalous temperatures by the Greenland "crack" offer the most compelling evidence for the connections between the sun, albedo, ice and open ocean.

That "crack' was much more than a crack. It allowed the ocean to absorb vast amounts of solar power that is now being irradiated out. Larger earlier cracks will make this anomaly stronger and last longer. At some point, the ice will thicken enough to reduce the anomaly

Which temperature anomalies are you referring to, exactly?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on October 26, 2019, 03:15:40 AM
Exactly the area around the Greenland crack as talked about in the following thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2839.msg232576.html#msg232576

An awesome image of the area I'm referring to, as posted by uniquorn in the above thread

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2839.0;attach=134829;image)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 26, 2019, 07:16:09 AM
October 21-25.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg178408.html#msg178408).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on October 26, 2019, 04:24:22 PM
Early loss of ice area inside the Arctic Basin as well as outside easily explains the accumulated heat. Check out the series of attached charts (big thanks to Tealight / Nico Sun for providing these in real time). Note the AWP calculation does not take clouds/weather into account, just solar angles and ice/water albedo.
Not surprisingly, the same areas with the highest anomalies are the same ones with relatively delayed refreeze. I expect this pattern to continue in November and December.

Spot on. The AWP matches the SST map almost perfectly. Except for one area, the Laptev bite.

The atlantification has caused the upwelling to be warmer (probably), and the ice pack mobility has allowed the ice in the area to consistently move toward the fram strait (definitely).

I expect this will last several more weeks, and in the next few years become almost a year-round feature.

A similar thing seems to be happening  in the lincoln sea, but there is just a lot more thicker ice in the area.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on October 27, 2019, 02:48:29 AM
It looks like Nares Strait has closed up.
Or does it take longer than a few days to make that call?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 27, 2019, 04:50:11 AM
To see if Nares has closed, you'll need to look at least the DMI Satellite images (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php). (Link is to "Kennedy" section - the middle part of the Strait - see at the the link links to "Kane" and "Lincoln" on the Greenland location map [and the rest of the Greenland coast]).  Looking back and forth between images with two dates (set to the same area - easy to do), you'll see in the lower Kennedy section, there is still ice movement.  In the Lincoln imagery, there isn't much right now.

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades.  It usually closes in the December to February period (IIRC) (and it didn't close at all in 2006-07 and 2018-19 winters).  This post in the Nares Thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg199310.html#msg199310) gives some history of Nares' closing dates.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 27, 2019, 06:23:01 AM
To see if Nares has closed, you'll need to look at least the DMI Satellite images (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/kennedy.uk.php).

As always, i did that and made GIFs. :)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,176.msg234471.html#msg234471
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 27, 2019, 06:28:04 AM
It looks like Nares Strait has closed up.
Or does it take longer than a few days to make that call?

If Nares freezes up this week for the winter, I think it would be unprecedentedly early in the last couple of decades

I don't think an early refreeze of NS this year is too unlikely because there is no surface current at the moment.

But, tidal forces hinder the freeze as of yet.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on October 27, 2019, 07:29:19 AM
The GIFs show it isn't closed.
Like the tidal movements they show.

I should have looked closer myself.... Aluminium's GIF looked like it was frozen over but it was just a lack of detail.

Thank you for GIFs
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on October 27, 2019, 08:12:54 AM
I should have looked closer myself.... Aluminium's GIF looked like it was frozen over but it was just a lack of detail.

Yes, this GIF is showing that there is ice which is correct. It can't show details like that though.

Sometimes i'm amazed how much we can see on the satellite pics. But mostly i want more. ;)

Quote
Thank you for GIFs

Welcome, Rodius. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on October 27, 2019, 08:47:41 AM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on October 27, 2019, 11:05:08 AM
More like Christmas than Halloween...what with all these GIFS....ooooo
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 27, 2019, 12:25:56 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234504.html#msg234504

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/22 to 10/27, Forecast: 10/27 to 10/30.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on October 27, 2019, 09:53:24 PM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.

Yup, it's better to release that heat. I guess the worse conditions for ice formation are a good thing when the energy balance is for heat loss. It's a worrying feeling though, hoping for less ice so the Earth can lose its excess heat. The problem is that the ocean just shouldn't be that warm.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on October 27, 2019, 11:36:28 PM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.

Why is the release of heat a bad thing since it can now radiate back into outer space? I am confused when the complaint is that heat is being trapped in the ocean and also when heat is not being trapped. I just want consistency.

The problem is that the splitting is done by extra heat from the oceans from the lower latitudes at a time of the year when that should not happen.

So this is not the same as heat released from Arctic oceans.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Ice Shieldz on October 28, 2019, 04:57:51 AM
A Polar Vortex Split is coming in about a week.
This is again, very bad news, coming earlier Year by Year.
The Oceans are just spewing out Heat, relentlessly.
For future reference, it would be helpful to indicate if you're talking about a stratospheric or tropospheric vortex split. Also can you provide a plot and/or analysis of the forecasted split. edit oh I just saw your follow up above.  Climate change and its connections to our planet's atmospheric circulation are very complex and if we want to persuasively show a climate connection we have to use clear science and not over simplify it.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 28, 2019, 07:38:46 AM
October 23-27.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg178593.html#msg178593).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on October 28, 2019, 01:27:08 PM
Thanks for the year to year comparisons.

The two years look quite alike in refreeze. You can also see a similarity in the 2018 and 2019 lines in the extent and area thread.

The main difference seems to be the amount of ice in missing in the Beaufort so it will be interesting to see how the ice develops there this season.

I don´t think the extra ice on the Atlantic side will make much of a difference.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pikaia on October 29, 2019, 12:17:06 AM
Surprisingly, the DMI Volume curve shows a rapid slowdown in the growth of ice over the last few days, in contrast to the rapid increase in area and extent. How much can we trust the DMI data?

http://polarportal.dk/fileadmin/polarportal/sea/CICE_curve_thick_LA_EN_20191027.png
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on October 29, 2019, 10:45:06 AM
today's windy ecmwf wam (waves)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: seaice.de on October 29, 2019, 12:03:30 PM
The SMOS sea ice thickness data product has moved to AWI. The SMOS processing at Uni Hamburg has stopped. You can find the SMOS and the combined SMOS and CryoSat2 products here: ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/ (http://ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/)

A description can be found here https://spaces.awi.de/display/CS2SMOS (https://spaces.awi.de/display/CS2SMOS)

If you want to learn more about the validation and difference between the UH (now AWI) and U Bremen product have a look here http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf (http://www.seaice.de/Kaleschke_RSE_2016_final.pdf)

Both SMOS data products underestimate the thickness on average by about 50-60%. However, the UH product performs better in comparison with the UB product with a reduced mean difference and RMSD.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Maplike on October 29, 2019, 05:22:57 PM
As someone already mentioned a few comments ago, this really doesn't look good.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/images/FullSize_CICE_combine_thick_SM_EN_20191028.png
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on October 30, 2019, 06:20:16 AM
October 25-29.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg178812.html#msg178812).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 30, 2019, 12:22:27 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg234855.html#msg234855

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/25 to 10/30, Forecast: 10/30 to 11/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on October 31, 2019, 10:03:03 AM
Sea Ice North of Canada appears to be receeding or do my eyes fail me?

Russian side is like someone squirting whipped cream.
If it kept at that pace the whole NH would freeze.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on October 31, 2019, 10:16:46 AM
GFS suppose the heat advection to the Arctic from the Pacific side in 8-10 days and cold anomalies in America. Not reliable by now, but could be the first significant heat wave this freeze season
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on October 31, 2019, 11:14:55 AM
Sea Ice North of Canada appears to be receeding or do my eyes fail me?

Russian side is like someone squirting whipped cream.
If it kept at that pace the whole NH would freeze.
[/quote

You'll have to explain that technical term, please...."squirting whipped cream"
 :o :o :o :o :o]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on October 31, 2019, 11:38:30 AM
Maybe something like this ….
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on October 31, 2019, 07:49:46 PM
You'll have to explain that technical term, please...."squirting whipped cream"
 :o :o :o :o :o

Google "Reddi-Wip".


...But TBH when I googled "squirting whipped cream"... well let's just say you should turn Safe Search ON if you're at work. Just sayin'.  :o :-[
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 01, 2019, 07:05:23 AM
October 27-31.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg179072.html#msg179072).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 01, 2019, 01:12:54 PM
October 27-31.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg179072.html#msg179072).

Damn, thats fast. I wonder if thats a new single-day gain record
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 01, 2019, 02:35:54 PM
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIJ6cPNWoAI33YP.jpg)

Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIQNERiWsAEOqGt.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: GoodeWeather on November 01, 2019, 03:04:33 PM
The Chukchi Sea still does not want to freeze.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIJ6cPNWoAI33YP.jpg)

Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIQNERiWsAEOqGt.jpg)

Chukchi took in a massive amount of heat this summer.  Heat in deeper waters will take more time to freeze.   I am amazed at how long it has lasted so far.  Could go another week before the real freeze takes over.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 01, 2019, 03:10:18 PM
The extent growth in the Kara and the Laptev is impressive, even if expected. In Aluminium's animations the role of bathymetry, shoals and the geometry of the sea ice is evident. Volume figures should be spectacular, given how fast thin ice grows.

 Warm sst's seem to be overpowered by ice growth when temperatures are low enough.  That extra energy will go somewhere, but it now has to pass through ice if it wants to go up. I expect air temperature anomalies to remain above average until at least February, depending on WAA.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Darvince on November 01, 2019, 06:31:54 PM
Based on the present SSTs in Chukchi, and the ESS, Laptev, and Kara having run out of water below -1C, I expect the extent growth to stall out again in 2 or 3 days time and not pick up again until the middle of November, perhaps as late as November 20th. Cold air masses removing heat from Hudson and Baffin Bays could negate this, however. There is quite a bit of water below -1C in Baffin right now.

The Beaufort has a significant amount of water nearing -1C, but that seems like it's been around -1C for a weirdly long time, so who knows what'll happen there. My guess is that we finally get significant Beaufort expansion around November 10th, weather patterns permitting.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 01, 2019, 09:27:35 PM
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 01, 2019, 09:38:50 PM
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

It's about 5 degrees warmer than normal.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/temperature/tn70026_1yr.gif

See the map in the lower left corner (pink area):

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/RecentT.pdf
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 01, 2019, 10:18:40 PM
Ascat A,B,C A,C,B day233-303. Some weather interference ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 02, 2019, 12:32:35 AM
look at how warm the pacific side is even relative to 2016. it will take weeks to freeze!

This GIF compares SSTs from Bering, Chukchi and southern Beaufort between end October 2018 and 2019.

Southern Beaufort is a lot warmer this year. Warm currents have spread right across the northern coast of Alaska around Point Barrow.

Most of the Chukchi was warmer this time last year.

Western Bering was also warmer in 2018 and Eastern Bering is about the same.

Unless there is a sudden increase in the Beaufort, progress into the Chukchi and Bering could be even slower than last year. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 02, 2019, 06:49:23 AM
Has anyone figured out where we are now walking on the average annual area in the Arctic?

The chances of a new annual record are growing. 3 monthly records have already been set (2016 - 4, 2018 - 2, 2012 - 2, 2017 - 2).

https://twitter.com/zlabe
Quote
Updated record low #Arctic sea ice extent months - @NSIDC data (satellite-era from 1978/1979)
--------------
2018 : January
2018 : February
2017 : March
2019 : April
2016 : May
2016 : June
2019 : July
2012 : August
2012 : September
2019 : October
2016 : November
2016 : December
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 02, 2019, 11:41:04 AM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235170.html#msg235170

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/28 to 11/2, Forecast: 11/2 to 11/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: morganism on November 02, 2019, 10:10:27 PM
Alaska is having a hell of a time growing sea ice

https://mashable.com/article/arctic-sea-ice-alaska-will-not-grow/

""It has been a remarkable freeze-season (or lack of) so far," noted Zack Labe, a climate scientist and PhD candidate at the University of California, Irvine. "Overall, the last month has featured large areas of open water north of Alaska and Siberia."
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 03, 2019, 07:07:42 AM
October 29 - November 2.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg179291.html#msg179291).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: NotaDenier on November 03, 2019, 12:34:12 PM
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 03, 2019, 03:25:27 PM
Well if there is a slow refreeze and no ice, where would that snow fall on? And what thickness would that "protected" ice have?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 03, 2019, 06:47:35 PM
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2019, 07:31:11 PM
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

It makes sense, a few points though;

The argument is normally that a delayed refreeze allows more heat to vent into space, not that it creates more snow. Snow protects sea ice during spring/summer but is bad for sea ice in the autumn as it insulates against the polar night.
But that venting into space may be reduced to some extent in an open water sea - warmer air, increased low cloud and fog.

And the worst of both worlds might be happening now. Amazingly fast freeze-up in the ESS, Laptev, and Kara (A-Team even used the term "flash-freeze"), before all the below surface ocean heat had vented out - insulating that ocean warmth from further quick cooling down.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 04, 2019, 01:21:16 AM
AMSR2 ice concentration on 25 Oct with ice since added in the 9 days to 3rd November (in white).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 04, 2019, 12:03:40 PM
The speed of the Russian side refreeze depends on which  timepoint you define as your starting one.

If it was 2 weeks ago it has been incredibly fast.

If it was 1 month ago it has been pretty slow.

So in terms of surface radiation its either been a good OR a bad year?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 04, 2019, 06:46:53 PM
Wow  :P

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIi4FwMU4AAqxwt.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on November 05, 2019, 06:32:21 AM
How much Bering ice will form?

How weak and thin will the Chukchi ice be?

How much will this lack of buffer effect early melt?


I think this next year may see severe anomalies and its effects may penetrate into the central arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: dnem on November 05, 2019, 01:11:18 PM
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

While there are arguments pro and con - "sealing in heat", less venting to space, less snow vs more humidity and warmth in the lower atmosphere, more insulating snow, etc. etc. I have to defer to Occam's Razor: more and earlier freezing is good for the ice; less and later freezing is bad. This is probably overly simplistic and there are likely countervailing samples here and there across the arctic, but overall, that's my guess.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 05, 2019, 01:27:14 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235509.html#msg235509

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/31 to 11/5, Forecast: 11/5 to 11/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 05, 2019, 03:17:56 PM
How much Bering ice will form?

How weak and thin will the Chukchi ice be?

How much will this lack of buffer effect early melt?


I think this next year may see severe anomalies and its effects may penetrate into the central arctic.

Everything is very bad. The Pacific side continues to overheat, the Beaufort circle is pumped with heat.

Even with a neutral ENSO index, we have almost a record for ocean temperature:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIk84LSUYAAbFkh.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 05, 2019, 05:38:09 PM
October 15 - November 4 (fast).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 05, 2019, 06:13:00 PM
I’m wondering if the very quick refreeze is actually a bad thing? I remember several people here stating there was a lot of snow on the ice pack in May. Which delayed melting (melt ponds didn’t form). I know the snow can come from other areas but the quicker the refreeze of the Arctic Ocean the less moisture would be available for snow to fall in the arctic.

Does this make sense?

While there are arguments pro and con - "sealing in heat", less venting to space, less snow vs more humidity and warmth in the lower atmosphere, more insulating snow, etc. etc. I have to defer to Occam's Razor: more and earlier freezing is good for the ice; less and later freezing is bad. This is probably overly simplistic and there are likely countervailing samples here and there across the arctic, but overall, that's my guess.

I agree. Also more and earlier melting is bad for the ice; less and later melting is good. This is why ice free days for individual seas is such a good metric to track.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 05, 2019, 07:40:46 PM
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 05, 2019, 08:23:02 PM
Love the fast ones, Aluminium.

Here is one month of sea ice drift in slow though. One needs to see the arrows.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on November 05, 2019, 10:28:19 PM
Fram export via Sentinel SAR

Click to play

Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on November 06, 2019, 08:52:28 AM
NSIDC posted their summary for last month titled "Wild ride in October": https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2019/11/wild-ride-in-october/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 06, 2019, 06:58:39 PM
Thanks for this. Some of those big floes could be very thick MYI according to Cryosat-2 data

You are most welcome, Pavel.

And i had the exact same thought.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on November 07, 2019, 04:23:43 AM
This is where "the action" will be this freezing season...


There isn't really much thick ice to export. So it is all about pacific intrusion.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 07, 2019, 09:10:46 AM
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 07, 2019, 09:23:24 AM
There certainly does seem to be a very cold corridor stretching from Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, and polewards. The rest of the Arctic seems to be having significantly above average temperatures.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019110700/gfs_T2ma_nhem_1.png)

As usual, the DMI graph only tells a small part of the story.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2019.png&hash=125e4b570a7f4c5c6a7b2b6c2b5319be)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 07, 2019, 09:56:26 AM
October 31 - November 6.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg179865.html#msg179865).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 07, 2019, 11:14:00 AM
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red). Real " hot zone" is the Russian side. Very much above average there, despite of ice, and btw also over Siberian land.   Very cold CAA. Cold center of the CAB,  aroubd the pole and Svalbard, cold Greenland sea and Atlantic side as a whole (Kara, Barents) except that usual hotspot near Svalbard
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 07, 2019, 11:34:39 AM
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red).

This does not quite match what the image shows. The entirety of ESS is covered in ice, and is still deeply red on the 2m Temporature Anomaly. Laptev and Beaufort ice is only covered in red. In fact, most of the sea ice at the moment has positive temp anomalies.

And the anomalies over Greenland are also significant.

I've drawn a very rough estimate of 80N and the ice edge (green line) on the image below, as you can see the area north of 80 is indeed very cold, all the rest of the Arctic is unusally warm, and this include most of the ice covered part of the Arctic.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on November 07, 2019, 12:19:46 PM
I kbow DMI has pole "bias" but I wouldn't disagree a lot with them this time. As we know the pole is centered more towards Atlantic side, so 80N seems to be average. The rest of the Arcric is also fairly average (or even colder where there is ice, hot zones in Chuckchi and Baffin are there because there is no ice yet. We can clearly "see" that ice border on this photo (Nares and eastern CAA in blue Baffin Bay in red).

This does not quite match what the image shows. The entirety of ESS is covered in ice, and is still deeply red on the 2m Temporature Anomaly. Laptev and Beaufort ice is only covered in red. In fact, most of the sea ice at the moment has positive temp anomalies.


That's not what my eyes see. Certainly on the forward side there is much red, but on the other...and still in the Arctic, vast areas of blue. Like most up here, you seem to be red biased....as I am blue...lol

And the anomalies over Greenland are also significant.

I've drawn a very rough estimate of 80N and the ice edge (green line) on the image below, as you can see the area north of 80 is indeed very cold, all the rest of the Arctic is unusally warm, and this include most of the ice covered part of the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on November 07, 2019, 12:52:10 PM
echoughton, you need to attend to your quote markings!

Code: [Select]
[quote]this is a quote[/quote]
Besides, which side is the forward side? Perhaps we are biased, if not directly color-blind, but your original point about one being able to see the ice edge from the color markings doesn't hold up.

And the logic behind claiming that 2m temperatures are showing anomalies because of lack of ice is not very strong, as opposed to if we were discussing SST anomalies. Just look at how the ice-covered areas of Beafort and EES are showing higher anomalies than the non-icecovered Chukchi.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 07, 2019, 01:14:22 PM
First of all, I said the real  hot zone is the Russian side (which includes ESS and Laptev obviously) because there IS sea ice and snow cover in Siberia, anomaly there is not due the lack of those. The no ice argument was meant mainly for Baffin and Chukchi (I'm not speaking  just of today). There is real warm air advection from the Pacific going on right now. And when I said Arctic as a whole looks faitly average, I didn't mean just CAB but also CAA and Atlantic (Kara, Greenland and Barents seas) That whole side is below average.

P. S. 2m anomalies can't go down THAT much, if there is no ice, it's the opposite to summer months, when DMI shows always 0-1C even if we have 5C temp 850hPa which on the land with that much insolation would result in 20C on a sunny day. Real warm air advections can be followed on a temp850hPa map, but that  also can be tricky due to inversions in winter. It depends how and where the high pressure system is located.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2019, 03:43:22 PM
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on November 07, 2019, 08:31:42 PM
who do we complain to about DMI... Better at least make obvious suggestions to their format.  Isn't there something we can do about including the extreme heat anomalies just outside this zone, say like including down to 70-deg.?  what about what is common on all our other charts such as comparison amoung years overlaying each other??? Ugh!  Greenland melt needs that too.  Sorry for not keeping up of late...  I have been watching daily gains and think they are nothing unexpected... I mean, freeze season WILL happen no matter what the +anomalies.  its the far more worrying rapid falls just after near equal peaks that we saw earlier this year to start off that worry me... To me, it'll be many decades 40-70 years before we are basically ice free year long.?~  We won't survive things as is.  Hope its not off topic, but as usual think we need to see the worrysome gobal picture...  We are seeing similar maximums but sharp decreases Mid-season so Yes... its now Antarctica's turn.  global ice extent is a very strong second after what... 9-months in the lead/tied with first?  Not good... Chukchi is now showing signs of Berring like collapse???

{edit} I mean I had to guess... what will global ice curve look like in 10-15 years??
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2019, 08:41:16 PM
Think the end of the century rises is close. Maybe 50k climbs now. The whipped cream has all been stirred up now and will just slowly spread out in the coffee cup
That's awfully cold coffee!
They charge more for iced  coffee. It takes a lot of energy to make the cold to freeze the hot stuff. Homo Sapiens rules, OK?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on November 07, 2019, 09:21:11 PM
      This might belong in the Stupid Questions thread, but can somebody explain how/why Laptev and ESS had such above average Extent and Area refreeze gains when the GFS temperature forecasts over the past two weeks have shown substantial above average temperature anomalies?

     In addition to the anomalies, some of the absolute temperature values were at or just below 0 C.  And if I remember correctly, not just 2m air temps., but also SST temps. were above normal.  So how does that turn into above average refreezing?

     I realize that those seas were starting from below average ice amount, were bound to catch up and by starting late, caught up faster than normal, and that the lack of ice cover may have allowed greater export of ocean water heat into the atmosphere.  But all of that doesn't seem to be enough to explain how such a burst of new freezing happened. 

     My guess is that the GFS air temperatures at 2 meters above the surface were reading high because of ice formation.  Thus in opposition to my assumption that elevated surface air temperatures would retard ice formation, it was the exact opposite, energy released by ice formation was warming the air.

    Regardless of my confusion based on expecting the opposite to have occurred, what explanation is there for the recent rapid ice accumulation at far above the normal rate?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 08, 2019, 12:33:07 AM
Here are the temperatures on Kotelny Island for the past 30 days, Glen.

Kotelny is located between the ESS and Laptev.

The temperatures show a considerable drop after the 28th. But that was after the ice growth had shut off the open water influence. Prior to that date, the temperatures were below zero but rarely below -8 C. Not enough you would think to start a big freeze.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 08, 2019, 12:40:21 AM
Full-size version available, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235916.html#msg235916

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
October 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 08, 2019, 01:10:58 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg235969.html#msg235969

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/3 to 11/8, Forecast: 11/8 to 11/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 08, 2019, 01:40:49 PM
Until the arctic ocean properties change, looking at Wipneus amsr2 regional extent charts, it would appear that there are limits to a late refreeze in the ESS and Laptev (edit: though there might be a retreat in the ESS over the next few days). Kara likely freezing earlier due to the push from the pacific side.
Polarstern temperatures further north perhaps offering some explanation.
Nonetheless, a clearish view of the pole today on worldview (https://go.nasa.gov/2NtQ2H9) suggests that all is not quite rosy and SMB thickness posted here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg235963.html#msg235963) would appear to corroborate.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on November 08, 2019, 02:44:45 PM
Could holes (polinios sp?) in the ice over winter cause extra circulation to draw up warmer water... couldn't this be what sustains some of them..  Wondering what 'shock' it might take the system to cause an El Nino like warm plum rising.  It's only a matter of time for the ice in general.  Get a Super El Nino Year mixed with maybe even two GACs and several bad years prior and....
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: karl dubhe2 on November 08, 2019, 03:30:07 PM
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 09, 2019, 07:07:11 AM
November 4-8.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180176.html#msg180176).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 09, 2019, 09:17:29 AM
Wow!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 09, 2019, 05:31:34 PM
Could holes (polinios sp?) in the ice over winter cause extra circulation to draw up warmer water... <snippage>
With air temperatures of -25C the leads (fractures) won't be open water for very long, though the thinner ice does show up warmer using worldview brightness temperature.

The animation below shows uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh ice concentration overlaid onto mercator (model) 0m sea temperature. (amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to transparent)
oct1-nov8. It looks like a wind driven retreat in the ESS.

edit: Polarview (https://www.polarview.aq/arctic) Sentinel 1A of wave action on thin ice near the Chukchi coast today.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 09, 2019, 06:55:38 PM
whoi-itp103 microcats still giving temperature and salinity data at 5m and 6m at the mouth of the amundsen gulf. (the profiler battery ran out some time ago)

edit: Internal buoy temperature and location suggesting that it may be iced in again after some time in open water.
Quote
Last buoy status on 2019/11/9 120101 UTC : temperature = -2.3125 °C, battery = 10.028 V
Last position on 2019/11/9 120101 UTC : 71.5516° N, 126.79° W
an example of trapped heat?
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=163356
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 10, 2019, 06:08:07 AM
Rapid refreeze now underway in Hudson Bay, should sustain for the next several days at least.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/WIS31CT/20191109180000_WIS31CT_0010842839.gif)

I think most of Hudson and all of the major Canadian lakes will be frozen by the end of the month, while Chukchi will remain mostly open and Beaufort / Bering too, the discrepancy between the refreeze date in these regions could be the worst on record (normally it would go Chukchi -> Bering / Hudson, not the other way around, and this has big implications for winter in North America IMO, in a snowy way).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freelance 1 on November 10, 2019, 07:34:11 AM
I have spent many years lurking on this forum. Over the years I see little to give me hope that climate change will not devastate the Arctic and the planet as a whole.

I teach climate change in my classes at a community college in Southern California. In my feeble attempt to explain how these great dips of the jet stream that bring an Arctic blast to the eastern half of the USA can hurt the Arctic I use a freezer we have in the classroom. I open it up to let the cold out and ask them “When I close the door, how does the freezer make it cold again?” I tell them about condensers and heat exchangers.

 I ask them “How does the Arctic keep so cold when its freezer door is opening when the jet streams make these large dips?” My feeble answer is we have a season of dark in the Arctic that is the time when we generate all the cold in the Arctic freezer by a lack of energy input directly from the Sun. Without that energy,  some of the energy brought in during the season of light will radiate into the atmosphere and eventually into space and at some point reach a point where the energy levels have dropped enough to freeze water and form ice that seals any remaining heat energy in the waters below it. Once the waters are sealed off by the ice, energy in the air continues to loose heat energy into space and becomes ever colder. So as long as the period of dark is exporting/exchanging more heat than it imports during the season of light we will have a functioning Arctic Freezer.

When the Arctic experiences two things: 1) Importing more heat during the season of light than it had before, and 2) opening the Arctic Freezer door more often during the season of dark, the Arctic Freezer will become more and more strained until it is no longer capable of acting as a freezer.

Why I watch this forum is to try and understand the heat gain and heat loose in the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 10, 2019, 03:50:50 PM
Last weeks Fram export.

Click to play.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 10, 2019, 05:29:20 PM
Rapid refreeze now underway in Hudson Bay, should sustain for the next several days at least.

very late start but it will catch up and freeze over completely.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on November 11, 2019, 06:57:32 AM
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

Not really.

The two biggest factors in how fast the ice melts are weather and snow depth.

The most ideal set up is to have very low snow cover in Spring because the Bare ice albedo is so low compared to snow the energy uptake during May can quickly change.

In the 2008-2012 period we had a couple years with almost no s no snow come May.


2011 was one and in turn the CAB almost melted out.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 11, 2019, 07:06:58 AM
November 6-10.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180444.html#msg180444).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 11, 2019, 12:42:29 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg236310.html#msg236310

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/6 to 11/11, Forecast: 11/11 to 11/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on November 11, 2019, 03:30:32 PM
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.

And then DMI80 is like "nah never mind":

(https://i.imgur.com/wscL02Z.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 11, 2019, 05:14:38 PM
LOL
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 02:28:15 AM
First ice now appearing on Lake Superior, I think this is exceedingly early.

(https://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/prods/NAIS25WCT/20191111180000_NAIS25WCT_0010845736.gif)

I anticipate a near-complete refreeze of the Great Lakes this winter, surpassing 2018-19 and comparing to or surpassing 2013-14.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on November 12, 2019, 02:48:01 AM
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

it looks like we shall see the first autumnal fall below mean on the dmi80 chart since 2015 . b.c.

And then DMI80 is like "nah never mind":

(https://i.imgur.com/wscL02Z.png)


24 hours later ...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

ice getting chilled for export ? b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 12, 2019, 12:20:28 PM
A gif showing the decline and fall of SST anomalies from August maximum to now.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 12, 2019, 12:45:41 PM
A Tale of 2 seas (NSIDC Sea Ice Area)

DMI North of 80 has been colder or much colder than in recent years. North of 80 is pretty much the area covered by the Central Arctic Sea - currently 31st lowest, i.e. 11th highest, in the satellite record, and nearly 200,000 km2 more than the 2010's average.

However, other parts of the Arctic have been relatively warm - e.g. the Chukchi.

The Chukchi Sea - currently lowest ( and for 151 days this year), and nearly 300,000 km2 less than the 2010s average.

The Arctic is certainly a mix of different seas.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 12, 2019, 01:29:52 PM
A comparison of nov1-11 from 2016-2019 using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh. click to run
Late refreeze in Baffin and Foxe Basin this year, also Chukchi.
2016 was late freezing in the Kara sea.
Maybe there is more fresh water refreeze in the Greenland Sea this year?

Wipneus regional extent for Baffin from nov9
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 12, 2019, 05:03:19 PM
Until recently there was only very small amounts of ice exported from Lincoln via Nares. This might have contributed to the low Baffin numbers?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 12, 2019, 05:13:28 PM
Windy weather is expected in the Chukchi Sea.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 12, 2019, 07:04:25 PM
This is a catastrophe. :(

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJL9QW6U4AAqLQX.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on November 12, 2019, 08:05:50 PM
Windy weather is expected in the Chukchi Sea.

Hi - novice/lurker question here: Given the open water, high winds and high pressure, would you expect accelerated IR heat loss to space in the Chuckchi...?  Trying to prime the pump of understanding what you guys "see" ... thanks!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 12, 2019, 08:11:19 PM
This is a catastrophe. :(

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJL9QW6U4AAqLQX.jpg)
No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

The Chukchi and the Central Arctic are opposite sides of the coin.  Let's see what the 2019 season brings.

ps: But what will the Bering Sea do - how open for how long - a big influence on the Chukchi's melting season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on November 12, 2019, 08:56:38 PM
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 12, 2019, 09:01:42 PM
No it isn't. It is impressive but it is a very early melt causing very high SST +ve anomalies followed by a very late freeze. There are those who say late freeze causes a colder sea (rapid venting of heat)  and when freeze occurs thickening can be rapid. There are those who say that late freeze means less time for ice to thicken.

This means further heat accumulation in the most vulnerable place in the Arctic - the Beaufort cycle.

Previous article about this:

https://www.sciencealert.com/ticking-time-bomb-hidden-heated-ocean-water-under-arctic-canada-basin-chukchi-sea

Quote
'Ticking Time Bomb' of Heated Ocean Discovered Hidden Under The Arctic

PETER DOCKRILL30 AUG 2018


(https://www.sciencealert.com/images/2018-08/296-arctic-heat-archive-ocean-melt-ice-1.jpg)

The Arctic is not in a good way. Its oldest, thickest sea ice is breaking. Strange lakes punctuate its landscape. The very chemistry of its water is changing.

Things could be about to get worse. New research has uncovered evidence of a vast reservoir of heated water building up underneath the Arctic Ocean and penetrating deep into the heart of the polar region, where it threatens to melt the ice frozen on top. And maybe a lot of it.

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," explains oceanographer Mary-Louise Timmermans from Yale University.

Timmermans and her team analysed temperature data on the Canada Basin taken over the last 30 years, and found that the amount of heat in the warmest part of the water had effectively doubled in the period 1987 to 2017.

The basin, which sits to the north of Alaska, is made up of mixed layers of ocean water, with cold, fresh water flowing at the surface, sitting on top of a body of warmer, saltier ocean trapped beneath it.

That dynamic has long been the case, but it's the rapidly heating conditions of the warmer reservoir below that has scientists concerned.

"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer," Timmermans says.

"Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

According to the researchers, the warmer submerged waters have been 'archiving' heat due to "anomalous solar heating" of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, which feeds the Canada Basin.

Basically, as sea ice seasonally and increasingly melts in the Chukchi Sea, open water gets exposed to the heat of sunlight, warms up, and is then driven northwards by Arctic winds – a current phenomenon called the Beaufort Gyre.

As this heated water travels to the Arctic, the warmer waters then descend below the colder layer of the Canadian Basin – but the amount they've heated up in the past three decades could represent "a ticking time bomb", the researchers warn.

"That heat isn't going to go away," one of the team, oceanographer John Toole from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, told CBC.

"Eventually … it's going have to come up to the surface and it's going to impact the ice."

While the researchers don't think there's any immediate threat, strong winds mixing the colder and warmer water layers – or an increase in salinity, driving the warmer water upwards – could severely impact Arctic ice.

And even if those outcomes don't result, the temperature trajectory already seen could be affecting ice coverage more subtly, although nobody knows the exact ramifications yet.


"It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics," the authors explain in their paper, although they note in the coming years the excess heat "will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth."

More research is needed to calculate just how serious this situation is, but there's no denying these mechanisms are all part of a much bigger problem – and one that isn't going away.

"We're seeing more and more open water as the sea ice retreats in the summertime," Timmermans told the Canadian Press.

"The Sun is warming up the ocean directly, because it's no longer covered by sea ice."
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 10:48:00 PM
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Klondike Kat on November 12, 2019, 11:25:17 PM
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.

Thus years harvest was not a catastrophe.  Corn production is only down about 9% from last year, and still above 2015 levels.  Wheat production was up 4% over 2018.  Food prices are down significantly from the spring scare, which caused more hype than harm.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: bbr2314 on November 12, 2019, 11:42:50 PM
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

We already have a catastrophe unfolding after this year's late start and early finish. If 2020 repeats the same pattern (or worse) there will be major shocks to food prices beyond what is already likely in the pipeline due to this year's harvest.

If the CAB has ice when people start to starve, BOE will be trivial at that point. The impacts are already well underway due to certain regions becoming increasingly ice-free, and we may not even need an ice-free CAB to see catastrophe unfold in the form of spiraling food prices.

Thus years harvest was not a catastrophe.  Corn production is only down about 9% from last year, and still above 2015 levels.  Wheat production was up 4% over 2018.  Food prices are down significantly from the spring scare, which caused more hype than harm.
It was a catastrophe, the data is still processing. There are more crops than corn. We obviously have redundancies but if the weather next year is worse than this one, the impacts will IMO be severe.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1182694890943275008

We are also free to disagree! :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on November 13, 2019, 01:05:46 AM
Re Timmerman's article on heat accumulation in the Beaufort Aug 2018, here is link to some of discussion about this on ASIF.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg170363.html#msg170363
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 13, 2019, 06:44:32 AM
November 8-12.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180773.html#msg180773).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 13, 2019, 07:49:54 AM
The Chuckchi sea (and the Bering) can really start the next melt season with the record low volume (again). But it won't be a catastrophe because the CAB still have the pretty thick ice that will mostly survive the melt season.
This is wrong. The Chukchi and Bering are, IMO, directly tied to the freezing season in North America and its duration. If the Chukchi and Bering's volume remains at record lows through the freezing season and into the spring, there is a very good chance winter will not abate until May, or even June, across the most productive food-growing regions on the planet.

Well, let's test this theory. 2016,17,18 autumn ice cover was very low in the Chukchi/Bering region. So I decided to see how that changed next spring's (so: 2017,18,19) temperatures vs the baseline of 1950-80. This should see serious cold in the NA region if the theory was true. This is what I found (see below)
 April is really a bit colder than the "good ol' days" but May is not at all. Neither June.

There is some merit to this theory, as there seems to be some displacement of the Arctic cold pole into the Hudson region but I think it is exagarrated very much. Anyway, we shall see what this spring brings. I am open to new ideas and like this theory but do not find strong support for it in the data (yet?)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on November 13, 2019, 09:44:54 AM
November 8-12.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180773.html#msg180773).

Is it possible to change the crop of the animation? I'd be interested in seeing Hudson and Baffin bay etc in the coming weeks
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 13, 2019, 01:00:55 PM
November 8-12.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg180773.html#msg180773).

Is it possible to change the crop of the animation? I'd be interested in seeing Hudson and Baffin bay etc in the coming weeks

It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.

You can follow them yourself very easily with this;

https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-3600916.995462227,-3416834.2540699844,-979476.9954622271,-1647362.2540699844&p=arctic&t=2019-11-12-T10%3A52%3A02Z&l=Graticule,Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_Brightness_Temp_BandI5_Night(palette=green_1,min=223.2,223.9,max=272.2,272.8,squash=true),Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 13, 2019, 01:24:20 PM
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 13, 2019, 02:02:46 PM
It is, but Aluminium prefers not to, I think it might be a filesize issue.
I think it's mostly a usability trade-off issue between too much cropping and too much zooming out, where I think Aluminium hit the sweet spot. And it's also a backward compatibility issue with his previous animations as he's been making these for over a year now using the same cropping template.
The downside is that at the end of the freezing season (Jan, Feb) all the action is in the far peripheral seas and the animation becomes less useful. That is the time of year when Aluminium decreases the publishing rate to once a week, IIRC.
I will take the opportunity to again thank Aluminium for this important service to the community.

Seconded on that, your figures are always appreciated Aluminium
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on November 14, 2019, 06:47:48 AM
Am I wrong in speculating that the faster the ice freezes this winter the faster it's likely to melt out next spring?  I think so, as such 'predicticating' is utterly without any science to back it up.   :)

You are right! Your thoughts are in line with several similar statements over the past few years. However, this year saw the slowest refreeze in history as the extent dropped below 2012 and every other year even after being higher than several years back in the spring and summer.

So, if the hypothesis is correct, ice might melt more slowly this coming spring.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on November 14, 2019, 07:46:13 AM
I've been away for a few days and man, what an unbalanced refreeze.

That said, the lack of refreeze in the Chukchi and Bering I find very disturbing.  To a lesser degree I'm concerned about the Hudson and Baffin.

But the lack of ice in the Chukchi and Bering speak very strongly to what will happen next spring on the Pacific side.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 14, 2019, 09:48:58 AM
grixm https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/sea-ice-concentration/ which leads to https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_visual.png or even (https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser/#day=13&month=10&year=2019&img={%22image%22:%22image-1%22,%22sensor%22:%22AMSR%22,%22type%22:%22visual%22,%22region%22:%22Arctic%22})
not much to animate yet, https://ezgif.com/ if you fancy it.
otherwise i echo oren
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on November 14, 2019, 12:11:56 PM
Quote
But the lack of ice in the Chukchi and Bering speak very strongly to what will happen next spring on the Pacific side.

There is some multiyear ice in the Beaufort sea. Maybe, once the gyre gets going, that thick ice moves somewhere in between the Chukchi and the central sea, protecting the central sea from early insolation.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 14, 2019, 12:34:56 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg236697.html#msg236697

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/9 to 11/14, Forecast: 11/14 to 11/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 14, 2019, 01:29:53 PM
I hope the current forecast holds, so we can get decent ice formation. In the first couple of days, we have very cold Hudson Bay region, with favorable winds from the northwest, then Chukchi should get going (finally!) with cold weather + wind from the north, and most importantly it looks like the cold could stay there and in the basin as a whole, for a while at least. Kara could close too, but we'll see.

We'll see if SST in Chukchi is still too high to freeze, even with favorable conditions, I hope not.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on November 14, 2019, 07:13:12 PM
GFS and GEM wind forecast  for today. Look at Chukchi. This shouldn't even be a forecast, it is for today and the time "forecasted" is just 1h after the publication of those runs. And yet there couldn't be more of a difference in wind, direction-wise. Canadians (I know it's them that are wrong, because I looked at all other models, and they are in line with GFS), really have to fix their "wind bug". It is similar to JMA (Japanese model) forecasting 1080-1085hPa over Greenland every other run, when we have high pressure over that region.

GFS
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgfs%2Fruns%2F2019111412%2Fgfsnh-14-6.png%3F12&hash=cc64728139ccfb30c04a260d11e7ed4c)

GEM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgem%2Fruns%2F2019111412%2Fgemnh-13-6.png%3F12&hash=60b92b6b42e14e930bb71b0189bbfe42)


Edit: I looked into it right now, it happens only on their NH map, when you click on North America or Europe, it works fine. I mean on N hemi it is forecasting northern winds in the Pacific near Alaska-Canada border, but on just North American map, it has southern winds which is obviously correct, since it is really basic meteorology knowledge, that if there is a cyclone, there will be southern or SW winds on its warmer front side and northern winds o its backside. Because cyclones spin counterclockwise on NH, that means if the cyclone is located west of certain location it will get southern winds, and "warmer" air, and if it is located east, that location will get northern colder winds.

GEM NH
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgem%2Fruns%2F2019111412%2Fgemnh-13-12.png%3F12&hash=fe4008573a1c0ac37def1f075b7b615f)

GEM NA
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmodeles.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fgem%2Fruns%2F2019111412%2Fgemna-13-12.png%3F12&hash=3d07cc27be75a2666b2947c7d69f6ba8)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 15, 2019, 07:02:05 AM
November 10-14.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg181072.html#msg181072).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on November 15, 2019, 08:13:54 AM
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Darvince on November 15, 2019, 09:43:11 AM
I would think that it should be wind-driven movement; temperatures there appear to be moderately below freezing on models, and the weather station at Pevek verifies this:

https://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=25051&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2019&mes=11&day=15&hora=06
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 15, 2019, 09:43:16 AM
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 15, 2019, 02:12:55 PM
November 10-14.


Is the ESS ice near the shore being melted, or just pushed away by wind?

It looks like the ice follows the predominant wind pattern over the same period, my money would be on wind
SimonF92, I think your money is safe.

http://osisaf.met.no/p/osisaf_hlprod_qlook.php?year=2019&month=11&day=14&prod=LR-Drift&area=NH&size=100%25
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 15, 2019, 07:13:24 PM
Looks like Fram export could stall.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 15, 2019, 07:20:11 PM
Looks like Fram export could stall.
..increasing the chances of itp116 (https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=164836) making it to the Nares ;)

AWI CS2SMOS merged thickness from .nc using panoply, nov1-12
png files are also available here  (http://ftp://ftp.awi.de/sea_ice/product/cryosat2_smos/v202/nh/LATEST/)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 15, 2019, 07:20:32 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.karstenhaustein.com%2Freanalysis%2Fgfs0p5%2FANOM2m_arctic%2FANOM2m_past07_arctic.png&hash=350e5d77248a21996a392eefb2aa2f94)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 16, 2019, 12:04:04 PM
..increasing the chances of itp116 making it to the Nares ;)

#hellyeah! :)

In other related news, we have a liftoff.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 16, 2019, 04:41:57 PM
Looks like Fram export could stall.

More a reversal than a stalling.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pleun on November 16, 2019, 08:46:17 PM
Big spike up on the dmi north of 80 graph!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on November 16, 2019, 10:45:08 PM
Big spike up on the dmi north of 80 graph!

lol damn you weren't kidding

(https://i.imgur.com/bRGHeCW.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 16, 2019, 11:08:28 PM
In 2016 the real spike started from the latest value.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 16, 2019, 11:46:21 PM
Polarstern temperatures
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 17, 2019, 06:32:51 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.karstenhaustein.com%2Freanalysis%2Fgfs0p5%2FANOM2m_arctic%2FANOM2m_f00_arctic.png&hash=fbf146e86ab26e093dfadab2be4f42f3)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 17, 2019, 08:18:43 AM
November 12-16.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg181278.html#msg181278).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 17, 2019, 09:16:22 AM
Ice drift from 08.11. to today.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 17, 2019, 01:08:07 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg237055.html#msg237055

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/12 to 11/17, Forecast: 11/17 to 11/20.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 17, 2019, 01:37:47 PM
Polarview image (https://www.polarview.aq/arctic) of ESS west of Wrangel Island yesterday. Maybe some melt with the wind driven retreat.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on November 17, 2019, 08:13:56 PM
Quote
The northern Chukchi Sea is finally starting to freeze, but #seaice extent from @NSIDC remains by far the lowest of record this late in the season. Ice also forming near land on the Alaska side of Bering Sea but extent is half of average.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EJl3M1TVUAArCk9.jpg)

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Eco-Author on November 18, 2019, 07:24:14 AM
So Chukchi is almost a month behind... combined with record low mid year this could be one of the most obvious lengthening of the season indicators we have.  Chukchi will freeze over but will it fluctuate along with Bering??  The collapse we are seeing is not necessarily record lows or highs, but mid year.. and quick declines right after max.  ESS often develops those cracks something I didn't see a lot of in '18.  Antarctica is well below the line pulling numbers down too. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on November 18, 2019, 02:28:55 PM
Wondering if recent spike in dmi will elevate the whole System to a higher Baseline, just like after 2015 december spike. Remarkably, now a full 1,5 month earlier did this spike occur.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 19, 2019, 07:32:32 AM
November 14-18.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg181455.html#msg181455).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 19, 2019, 01:02:13 PM
I've got a feeling that over the next few days it is goodbye to the Chukchi Big Bite.

Nullschool wind @ 22 Nov attached.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 20, 2019, 12:40:27 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg237551.html#msg237551

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/15 to 11/20, Forecast: 11/20 to 11/23.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 20, 2019, 12:41:57 PM
Updated gif on SST anomalies from August max to Nov 19, from http://ocean.dmi.dk/satellite/index.uk.php

Plays 4 times then stops.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on November 21, 2019, 08:03:15 AM
I've got a feeling that over the next few days it is goodbye to the Chukchi Big Bite.



2017 had about the same size of "bite". it only closed by the middle of December, and SST as somewhat higher now
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 21, 2019, 05:29:18 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.karstenhaustein.com%2Freanalysis%2Fgfs0p5%2FANOM2m_arctic%2FANOM2m_past07_arctic.png&hash=350e5d77248a21996a392eefb2aa2f94)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on November 21, 2019, 05:35:11 PM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on November 21, 2019, 06:32:54 PM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

I tried to make a nullschool gif but it was simply horrible, you can see for yourself here;

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/25/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.75,68.91,1093
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 21, 2019, 07:10:23 PM
Recent tweet from Rick Thoman has pointed out that Bering sea ice extent has kicked off and reached the 50,000km2 mark. (NSIDC data)
Earliest date it has reached this level since 2012.

It's only though in the shallow sounds and bays and will still be vulnerable to destructive swells and wind.

Although if you look at the higher resolution Uni-Bremen there is not as much ice in those bays.

Response to a discussion in the data thread. UH animation, 2016 to 2019. Click to start.
2019 initial Bering refreeze is indeed earlier.

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.

I tried to make a nullschool gif but it was simply horrible, you can see for yourself here;

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/25/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-198.75,68.91,1093
You beat me to it.  But my image is just a png for all the Arctic as at 24 Nov. . As you say, and nullschool says,  the switch to winds from the SW seems due on about the 25th. But 3-4 days of those winds and the Chukchi big bite will be a teensy-weensy bite ?

I chose all the Arctic to look at those 30km winds blowing up the Polar-Stern's behind, and the quite impressive wind that's a Norther heading South on East Greenland, turning the corner into a Southerly up the Baffin.

With all this thin and broken up ice around, maybe temperatures are taking a back seat when some real winds turn up.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 22, 2019, 09:47:40 AM
November 16-21.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg181646.html#msg181646).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on November 22, 2019, 05:43:56 PM
Chukchi Freeze

There has been a pretty constant northerly wind on that area for about a week now.

That looks set to change within a few days to south-westerlies. I'm guessing the change in winds will be pretty negatively impactful for the ice thats forming there.


NullSchool has changed its mind ? By the 27th strong winds aimed at the Bering Strait from the Beaufort return?

click gif to play - plays 3 times & stops.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 22, 2019, 06:30:30 PM
NullSchool has changed its mind?

Last weeks forecast for this week in Nares turned out to be wrong either. They forecasted calmness but it was windy. This was ECMWF though, Nullschool is GFS.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 23, 2019, 01:22:59 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238024.html#msg238024

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/18 to 11/23, Forecast: 11/23 to 11/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 23, 2019, 01:38:27 PM
Fram (non)export
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 23, 2019, 10:00:16 PM
Comparison of nov22, 2016-2019 using unihamburg amsr2uhh.
That chukchi little bit bigger bite would seem to be getting more resilient as the years go by. As noted already, some welcome early ice in the Bering.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
Last weeks ice drift.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 25, 2019, 07:43:01 AM
November 19-24.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg181967.html#msg181967).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on November 25, 2019, 11:35:46 AM
I was wondering about the effect of bathymetry on melt so looking at the sss anim. at hycom and the similarity the spreading lower salinity has to the shape of Lomonosov, 1km below and 10s of Kms away. Then noticed that one of the livelier areas is more or less where P.S. is
(https://media.giphy.com/media/jnbX6o7fAJFJYW2dyH/giphy.gif)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 25, 2019, 02:02:22 PM
 <effect of bathymetry on melt>
worldview brightness temperature image of the saline water north of Svalbard sinking and/or mixing. This persistent lower concentration ice area is getting easier to spot as the export ice gets thinner. Click for full res. https://go.nasa.gov/2DbiRCm

Maybe the extra buoy data from PS and mosaic are already improving the models in that area.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 26, 2019, 12:28:05 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238478.html#msg238478

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/21 to 11/26, Forecast: 11/26 to 11/29.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 26, 2019, 01:57:33 PM
That wind over the chukchi is almost certain to be mixing the relatively shallow water there. Whether that raises the SST or increases heat loss I'm not sure, but for a while, with air temps of ~-2C, probably not so much heat loss yet.
edit: unless it's the heat loss keeping the air temps higher
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 27, 2019, 10:04:48 PM
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator temperature 0m at 80% transparent. amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to fully transparent. Chukchi, Nov1-26
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on November 28, 2019, 08:15:50 AM
November 22-27.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg182296.html#msg182296).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 29, 2019, 12:25:31 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg238837.html#msg238837

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/24 to 11/29, Forecast: 11/29 to 12/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 30, 2019, 03:32:43 PM
Here using mercator (model) salinitytemperature at 34m to show currents at 34m that may help to explain the resilience of the extended Chukchi bite. Sep21-nov29. Turbulence along the edge of the chukchi plateau is likely to increase mixing of shallow water.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on November 30, 2019, 06:20:22 PM
Air temperature anomalies, 7-day hindsight mean.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on November 30, 2019, 08:50:34 PM
Barents and Greenland seas pushing towards previous recent upper limits, Chukchi and Baffin finding new lows.
Wipneus regional extent for nov28.  https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 01, 2019, 08:01:45 AM
Major stratospheric warming under way(starting today-tomorrow and getting stronger every day)! This will probably have all kinds of consequences for NH midlatitude weather and Arctic weather as well. Pic of T+10 days as an example. (no polar vortex split seen in the forecasts yet)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: meddoc on December 01, 2019, 08:34:10 AM
Major stratospheric warming under way(starting today-tomorrow and getting stronger every day)! This will probably have all kinds of consequences for NH midlatitude weather and Arctic weather as well. Pic of T+10 days as an example. (no polar vortex split seen in the forecasts yet)

10 mb level tropospheric Vortex is already going bonkers, split into 2, with a pathological System spinning in opposite Direction, centered over the Bering.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on December 01, 2019, 08:42:58 AM
Ah, Now I get it.

A brief explainer on what a SSW is and possible effects:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: charles_oil on December 01, 2019, 10:34:02 AM

Thanks Iain - somehow it would be more convincing if the map was a bit more credible and the spinning disk of tea was a bit better placed / scaled - it looks way out in space to me!
 :-\
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 01, 2019, 09:46:15 PM
Quote
The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKtzJE2UYAAEBIU.jpg)


Quote
Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKt5yGKUcAAe3K2.jpg)


https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 01, 2019, 10:34:14 PM
Baffin perhaps missing some MYI intake, or maybe it's just weather. Either way, quite a step change into new territory.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on December 02, 2019, 06:05:30 AM
@charles_oil

LoL, yes, it is set at a level Joe Public would be able to follow.

The BBC charter includes a commitment to  " ...inform, educate..."

E.G the recent nature programmes highlighting plastic waste in the seas being ingested by marine life .

Significantly, many more of the public now realise their small action has a consequence.

< I'm drifting OT, last post on this >

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 02, 2019, 07:31:10 AM
November 25 - December 1.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg182916.html#msg182916).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 02, 2019, 12:00:15 PM
Quote
The rapid Chukchi Sea ice extent increase has abruptly stopped due to change in winds; November ends with lowest #seaice extent of record in @NSIDC data. Bering Sea extent better but is still less than half of average for Nov 30. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ZLabe @seaice_de

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKtzJE2UYAAEBIU.jpg)


Quote
Autumn 2019 at Utqiaġvik easily the warmest of the past 99 years due to no sea ice & record high nearshore #ssts. Avg temp 28.8F (-1.8C), previous warmest 2016. Trend of 10F (5.6C) since early '90s is stunning. #akwx #Arctic

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EKt5yGKUcAAe3K2.jpg)


https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Rules for fitting a linear regression;

Constant variance
Linear
Independence
Normal distribution
Error free sampling of residuals

Makes me cringe seeing important data like that, represented like that.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 02, 2019, 12:48:00 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239150.html#msg239150

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/27 to 12/2, Forecast: 12/2 to 12/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 02, 2019, 05:37:50 PM
Whoops, i forgot to post the Fram export via SAR yesterday.

Here is from 24.11 to 02.12. - including some bitchy flight paths.

And the wind forecast for Thursday.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 03, 2019, 06:28:14 PM
Last year (Oct 2018 to May 2019)  a transpolar drift moved North Pole ice toward Fram Strait and ESS ice toward the NP. (See May 2019 post [with GIF] by A-Team in the Test thread)  This year, Mosaic is dancing around not going anywhere, it seems (so far).  This may be good for the ice, even as it gets chopped up and pushed together due to weather. 

The more ridges there are, the more snow stays on the surface (in drifts), unless all the snow gets blown into leads.   Hmmm.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on December 03, 2019, 10:34:39 PM
A 946 hPa cyclone is going to set up in the northern Atlantic. Won't affect the ice pack directly but will boost the Fram export
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 05, 2019, 07:03:19 AM
The Pacific side is in line with 2017.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EK9BKFJVAAIZBRp.jpg)

But according to the average annual values, 2019 is unprecedented.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EK-3CkOUUAAWer6.jpg)

The Pacific side of the record is weakened. It could be terrible for the 2020 melting season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 05, 2019, 09:35:58 AM
Arctic Resurrection Lows; Passing the Baffin Bay Cyclone cemetery once again.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/11/arctic-resurrection-lows-passing-baffin.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 05, 2019, 12:44:43 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239603.html#msg239603

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/30 to 12/5, Forecast: 12/5 to 12/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 07, 2019, 08:03:43 AM
November 29 - December 6.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg183381.html#msg183381).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 08, 2019, 12:59:16 AM
Full-size version available, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}, in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239938.html#msg239938

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
November 2019 review.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 08, 2019, 01:45:36 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg239968.html#msg239968

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/3 to 12/8, Forecast: 12/8 to 12/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 08, 2019, 04:26:56 PM
7-day hindsight mean Arctic temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 08, 2019, 04:39:41 PM
Last weeks Fram export
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 10, 2019, 07:54:24 PM
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh overlaid onto mercator salinity 34m at 60% transparent. amsr2 0% concentration, normally dark blue, has been set to fully transparent. Chukchi, sep21-dec9.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 10, 2019, 10:38:07 PM
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on December 11, 2019, 12:18:44 AM
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 11, 2019, 01:31:36 AM
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Somebody here explained why the door is left open in the winter. I think it had to do with snow covered, icy outerwear which they peel off on the porch and leave hanging in the cold. If the porch were heated, the snow and ice would melt, soaking the outerwear and making it unusable the next time out.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 11, 2019, 01:50:10 AM
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Somebody here explained why the door is left open in the winter. I think it had to do with snow covered, icy outerwear which they peel off on the porch and leave hanging in the cold. If the porch were heated, the snow and ice would melt, soaking the outerwear and making it unusable the next time out.


thank you for the information.

While i'm fully aware that the porch is not heated I thought that if the door were closed, it would perhaps  be between -10 to -20C instead of -25 to -35C and that would suffice to keep the clothing frozen as well as to contribute to less energy consumption in the bordering heated rooms.

In my understanding those porches are used in many places to build a buffer between the windy really cold nature and the heated part of a house.

nevertheless at least there seems to be a reason, only question that remains is whether they ever considered a more "modern" solution that takes our current problems into account or whether i just don't have enough insight and that it's really necessary.

In that case i'd basically propose to go without door entirely and ask why only one house has the porch door open while any other house far north i've ever seen has all doors closed.

Not really important perhaps but nevertheless interesting to know and i've always been a curious person ;) ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on December 11, 2019, 02:57:52 AM
Arctic Sea Ice forms a formidable barrier for oxygen to penetrate into the ocean, but also does help the ocean to retain more of its existing oxygen in summers as the melting ice keeps water below ice cooler - so that more oxygen can remain dissolved within the water. This topic has come up at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)'s annual roadshow UN Conference of Parties 25 (COP25) currently meeting in Madrid, Spain. However, at first, there is also a passage of a very sad news item - which I must pass first :'(:

IN MEMORIAM: DR MATTI K. LAPPALAINEN

Dr. Matti K. Lappalainen, Councellor of the State of Finland on Environment ('Ymparistoneuvos'), the world's foremost expert in large water body oxygenation (oceans, seas, the Amazon river etc) has died in a research-related accident. As a Vice-President, Environmental Affairs at Sea Research Society, I was often doing projects with him and he was my co-author on research on mitigation of the Amazon ecosystems for the changing climate which we presented at the World Water Week, Stockholm, August 2007. More recently Matti worked to oxygenate the Baltic Sea. In Tammisaari, Finland he rehabilitated 28km2 pilot plot and another anoxic sea area near Stockholm, Sweden of slightly smaller size. Future plans held for oxygenation of anoxic sea area east of Gotland, Sweden and in various other locations around the Baltic Sea. Before Dr Lappalainen, no one had ever attempted or succeeded in recovering anoxic seas and oceans by the breakthrough Mixox technology. He also made dissertation of his work for the University of Oulu. The world has lost one of its greatest minds and unique expert who is near impossible to replace.

https://www.academia.edu/4299120/Kallio_Veli_A._and_Lappalainen_M._Preparing_the_Amazon_Ecosystems_for_the_Changing_Climate_pp._240-241
(PDF) Kallio, Veli A. & Lappalainen, M.: Preparing the Amazon Ecosystems for the Changing Climate, pp. 240-241. | Veli Albert Kallio - Academia.edu

The issue is absolutely important, the United Nations Conference of Parties 25 is just debating on the matter: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

Prof Dan Daffoley - IUCN Deoxygenation of Oceans - YouTube
"We are now seeing increasingly low levels of dissolved oxygen across large areas of the open ocean. This is perhaps the ultimate wake-up call" https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=501&v=s-C9RfKdiow&feature=emb_logo

The most recent research and PhD dissertation of Matti Lappalainen1,2 (268 pages)
1University of Oulu Graduate School
2University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology, Environmental Engineering

The dissertation was publicly defended at the East Finland University in Kuopio on large water body oxygenation (in this case the Baltic Sea) and analysis of the problem (with the Baltic Sea's anoxic situation) is downloadable here as electronic version:

http://urn.fi/urn:isbn:9789526219417
http://jultika.oulu.fi/Record/isbn978-952-62-1941-7   
http://jultika.oulu.fi/files/isbn9789526219417.pdf

Lappalainen, K. Matti, A renewed diagnosis and paradigm for eutrophication of the Baltic Sea. University of Oulu Graduate School; University of Oulu, Faculty of Technology

Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS
Vice-President, Sea Research Society
Environmental Affairs Department
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_Research_Society

https://exploresrs.academia.edu/VeliKallio
Veli Albert Kallio | Sea Research Society - Academia.edu
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 11, 2019, 12:37:28 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg240321.html#msg240321

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/6 to 12/11, Forecast: 12/11 to 12/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 11, 2019, 01:23:51 PM
The guy obviously likes to contribute to AGW, just wondering how much heat escapes through that door as compared to if it were closed.

I am going to go there one day and talk to the owner and inform them they are world famous on this forum.

Perhaps the owner is already with us ;) ;) ;) :D :D :D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 11, 2019, 10:15:30 PM
SST anomalies from Aug 6 to Dec 10

plays 3 times then stops.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 12, 2019, 07:07:12 AM
December 4-11.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg183951.html#msg183951).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 12, 2019, 04:48:06 PM
Aluminium, congrats on 444 posts! \o/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 13, 2019, 01:15:45 AM
Thanks. Is not too far before 65536. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 13, 2019, 02:06:13 PM
Comparison of the pacific side using unihamburg amsr2-uhh, dec12, 2013-2019
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 14, 2019, 12:44:43 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg240683.html#msg240683

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/9 to 12/14, Forecast: 12/14 to 12/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 14, 2019, 07:26:20 PM
Mackenzie Bay losing some recently fast ice over the last few days. Refreeze in parts of the Beaufort struggling to keep up with mobility for now.
https://go.nasa.gov/2PLJDHm  dec6-14   ctr
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 15, 2019, 01:56:40 PM
Ice drift 08. to 14.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 15, 2019, 02:08:00 PM
7-day hindsight mean anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 15, 2019, 03:40:20 PM
Fram export via SAR
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 15, 2019, 04:49:38 PM
This year there is a snowless winter in Eastern Europe. This is very similar to the situation in December 2006. Interestingly, we can expect a repeat of the summer of 2007 in the Arctic?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 15, 2019, 06:16:42 PM
Interestingly, a similar snow anomaly in Eastern Europe in the 21st century was observed three more times on a smaller scale. In December 2000, 2008 and 2011.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 15, 2019, 06:30:11 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Chukchi Sea #seaice extent in @NSIDC data is 2nd lowest of record for Dec 14, behind only 2007. Bering Sea ice extent is 3rd lowest in 42 year satellite era. Cold weather later this week will help thicken existing ice & promote new ice development. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EL13dqKU8AACL0g.jpg)

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 15, 2019, 07:30:45 PM
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Recent weather conditions have pushed the extent of #Arctic sea ice in the Bering-Chukchi Seas back to the 2nd lowest on record. Data from @NSIDC.

The record low sea ice cover this year has directly impacted many Alaskan coastal communities.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ELy4vinUEAEXLqt.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 16, 2019, 12:50:43 PM
It doesn't really look like the situation in Europe will be changing any time soon either.

Personally im not convinced that there are enough residuals to draw a correlation between European snow cover and Arctic ice. You may be onto something though- so why not try?

Last year I plotted UK June rainfall against September minimum and nearly got a significant correlation.

More importantly however it DOES look like the Chukchi is finally going to get cold.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 16, 2019, 01:12:10 PM
Heres an mp4 of that temperature change.

Its limited to 10fps for those with low bandwidth
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on December 16, 2019, 03:37:01 PM
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 16, 2019, 11:08:05 PM
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on December 16, 2019, 11:22:15 PM
Is that the true reason behind Brexit?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 16, 2019, 11:29:12 PM
Is that the true reason behind Brexit?
Yep. Little Xenophobic Englanders rule, OK?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Human Habitat Index on December 16, 2019, 11:55:08 PM
Is that the true reason behind Brexit?
Yep. Little Xenophobic Englanders rule, OK?

Coincidence there was a terror event during the election campaign.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on December 17, 2019, 12:55:35 AM
And now all I can think of is this:

https://youtu.be/Rgiyq7rqWhg

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 17, 2019, 07:27:35 AM
December 9-16.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg184212.html#msg184212).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 17, 2019, 12:25:18 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg241042.html#msg241042

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/12 to 12/17, Forecast: 12/17 to 12/20.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on December 17, 2019, 01:23:11 PM
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Universal Coordinated Time not UK time, often referred to by pilots as Zulu Time.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 17, 2019, 01:42:36 PM
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Universal Coordinated Time not UK time, often referred to by pilots as Zulu Time.
Universal Coordinated Time  is a johnny-come-lately invention that simply renames GMT - Greenwich Mean Time, which reflects that - 00 degrees longitude runs through Greenwich, London, the original home of the Royal Astronomical Observatory & the Greenwich Naval College.

Of course Universal Coordinated Time  is now - International Atomic Time (TAI),  a time scale that uses the combined output of some 400 highly precise atomic clocks. It provides the exact speed at which our clocks tick. And every so often an extra second has to be added to align it with earth time (GMT) due to the slowing rotation of the earth.
_____________________________________________________
ps:- You may find an old Soviet era map that has 00 degrees longitude running through Moscow.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on December 17, 2019, 03:11:41 PM
The M stands for Meridian, not Mean.
And UTC is a reference of time intended to be used globally while GMT is no more than a time zone.
TAI is not UTC, TAI is very accurate time in seconds. UTC now uses TAI as a reference, plus leap seconds adjusted by astronomers from time to time, so that UTC midday is in sync with solar midday along Greenwich meridian, since Earth motion is not completely regular.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 17, 2019, 03:33:42 PM
The M stands for Meridian, not Mean.
Nope...

Quote
The name of the clock that shows Greenwich Mean Time at the Royal Observatory in Greenwich, London, UK, is Shepherd Gate Clock
GMT is used as Standard Time in the UK and several other countries and is also a time zone
Offsets or time differences are generally written as UTC/GMT plus or minus a number of hours.
https://greenwichmeantime.com/what-is-gmt/

Xenophobic Little Englanders Rule, OK?

'nuff said.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 17, 2019, 05:52:46 PM
It doesn't really look like the situation in Europe will be changing any time soon either.

Personally im not convinced that there are enough residuals to draw a correlation between European snow cover and Arctic ice. You may be onto something though- so why not try?

Last year I plotted UK June rainfall against September minimum and nearly got a significant correlation.

Since the Earth has a common atmosphere, the most significant weather events in different parts should correlate. There is nothing fantastic here.


More importantly however it DOES look like the Chukchi is finally going to get cold.

But the Pacific side is continuing to be weakened.

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent is 2nd lowest for this point in the season in @NSIDC daily data, even less than the past two years (only 2007 lower). Weather the next week looks to be conducive to some but not dramatic ice growth. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @arctic_today @YJRosen

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EL_57ijU8AA-tDC.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 17, 2019, 06:25:56 PM
I've been reading here and there on the ASIF about increased mobility of Arctic Sea Ice.  Generally, this mobility suggests more likelihood of export (into melting fields).  But I want to look at a different consequence.

Two examples of this 'mobility' are reported in The more the Arctic acts like an accordion the more short-lived leads will form.  Five or ten centimeters of ice can form fairly quickly in -30ºC temperatures, and when these leads collapse, all that weak ice gets piled up into new ridges (along with some of the 'old' meter-plus thick ice).  Of course, leads have always opened and closed in the Arctic, but maybe more are opening now than before.  If there are more of these "massive pack ice hummocks", will there be more snow drift traps?  Will there be more exposed ice (hummock peaks) to trap spring sunlight?

Is something new happening?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on December 17, 2019, 09:12:59 PM
Something new is always happening .. :) .. this ridging would allow greater melt especially in sunny summers like 2019 .. 24/7 sun went on for days last June . Scale makes observation difficult , but watching the melt occur around some of the ice covered Russian islands , it was clear that melt was very active where the slope was steep .. as it would be in the micro-scale of ice ridges and 'hummocks' .. b.c.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 17, 2019, 09:19:08 PM
As far as the Atlantic Front is concerned, Nullschool says strong winds heading sort of south from Novaya Zemala to the South of Greenland from now for at least the next 5 days.

Which is a continuation of the last few days.

Also mainly North winds in the Baffin of variable strength.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 17, 2019, 09:38:59 PM
Watching that animation all I can think of is that the solstice is the 21st of December.
Nope...
Solstice 2019 will be at 04:19 on
Sunday, 22 December
All times are in United Kingdom Time. (UTC)

Late at night on the 21st in the USA, but that don't matter.

Only the USA matters. MAGAT!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on December 17, 2019, 09:43:01 PM
  Ho.. Ho.. Ho.. :)  ^^ .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 17, 2019, 10:34:39 PM
ArcticMelt2 this is a great resource for looking at relationships

https://ecm.um.maine.edu/reanalysis/monthly_correl/index.php
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 17, 2019, 11:02:50 PM
The M stands for Meridian, not Mean.
And UTC is a reference of time intended to be used globally while GMT is no more than a time zone.
TAI is not UTC, TAI is very accurate time in seconds. UTC now uses TAI as a reference, plus leap seconds adjusted by astronomers from time to time, so that UTC midday is in sync with solar midday along Greenwich meridian, since Earth motion is not completely regular.

The M stands for Meridian, not Mean.
And UTC is a reference of time intended to be used globally while GMT is no more than a time zone.
TAI is not UTC, TAI is very accurate time in seconds. UTC now uses TAI as a reference, plus leap seconds adjusted by astronomers from time to time, so that UTC midday is in sync with solar midday along Greenwich meridian, since Earth motion is not completely regular.

not quite and even if both were right, that wouldn't make it worth to correct the othe correct term, but then read for yourself.

dunno your age but sind i can think and that's many decades it has always been referred to as "Greenwich Mean Time" anywhere and by anyone and UTC, no matter what the reason "excuse" was to rename GMT to UTC, because it IS the same time and has always been use as an international reference, probably a few guys were not comfortable that greenwich got all the fame ;) hence the newer empire had to take the name away from the ancient empire. so low level envy based behaviour, but before i get up to speed, here is one of thousands of links that say the same.

https://greenwichmeantime.com/what-is-gmt/greenwichmeantime.com › what-is-gmt

TAi is only another name for the same time with a different measurement method and then we all forgot about 24h and am / pm thingy. perhaps someone has got the mood to look even smarter.

EDIT: forgot to mention that all search results came up with "mean" time even though the search term was "meridian"

https://www.google.com/search?q=greenwich+meridian+time&oq=greenwich+meridian+time&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.8357j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on December 18, 2019, 02:23:00 AM
So GMT is the analogue and all the rest digital ?  b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Yuha on December 18, 2019, 07:58:42 AM
Actually GMT is equivalent to UT1 time. They are based on astronomical measurements. Because the Earth's rotation is slowing down, a day lasts 24 hours and a small fraction of a second according to GMT/UT1.

On the other hand, by UTC a day always last either exactly 24 hours or 24 hours and one second based on atomic clocks. That leap second is added occasionally to keep UT1 and UTC within 0.9 seconds of each other.

Source: Wikipedia
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 18, 2019, 10:24:40 AM
ArcticMelt2 this is a great resource for looking at relationships

https://ecm.um.maine.edu/reanalysis/monthly_correl/index.php

Unfortunately, there is no exact data on snow cover in Europe in December. The Rutgers website has only data for all of Eurasia.

From these data it really follows that December 2006 was the least snowy in Eurasia after 1996.

The maximum occurred in December 2012 (the maximum value after December 2002).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 18, 2019, 11:19:22 AM
If we take the average temperatures in Europe in December, then they really coincide with the minimums of ice in the Arctic in September.

2000    0.807
2001   -1.943
2002   -2.433
2003    0.249
2004    0.182
2005   -0.268
2006    1.607
2007    0.777
2008    0.549
2009   -0.681
2010   -1.339
2011    0.995
2012   -1.213
2013    0.832
2014    0.626
2015    1.884
2016    0.246
2017    0.951
2018    0.750
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 18, 2019, 02:12:59 PM
If we take the average temperatures in Europe in December, then they really coincide with the minimums of ice in the Arctic in September.
The statistical fit is quite poor IMHO, and the physical basis is even poorer
A general fit of the trends is not enough, as both are caused by AGW, and the peaks anג valleys don't seem to be very much correlated. Chart them together and it will be apparent.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 18, 2019, 02:44:10 PM
If we take the average temperatures in Europe in December, then they really coincide with the minimums of ice in the Arctic in September.
The statistical fit is quite poor IMHO, and the physical basis is even poorer
A general fit of the trends is not enough, ass both are caused by AGW, and the peaks an valleys don't seem to be very much correlated. Chart them together and it will be apparent.

The calculated correlation coefficient of both arrays is only -0.4 If we take data only for Eastern Europe and since 2004, then it rises to -0.2

In any case, let's see what area of ice will be next summer. This December in Europe is comparable to December 2006.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 18, 2019, 05:24:52 PM
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 18, 2019, 05:54:24 PM
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?

Just now there is a lot of news on the Internet about a very warm winter in Europe. Everywhere they write that last similar winter was in 2006-2007. Therefore, the correlation with the minima of the Arctic ice suggests itself.

I also came across studies about the possible connection of strong Arctic minima with El Nino and minima of solar activity (in 2007 there was a minimum of solar activity, in 2012, the maximum was the opposite).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 18, 2019, 05:55:48 PM
I see. Thanks, AM. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on December 19, 2019, 12:19:37 AM
Is something new happening?
I think it's just the result of Atlantification, and that that took off with the loss of cover over Barentz. The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water. The tidal inflows always take the path of least resistance, which remains variable and thus opaque, the outflows are at depth in Fram, Nares and through the CAA plus the surface ice lost through Fram and a little via Nares.
Previously the surface water flows were inhibited/calmed/baffled by the complex geometry of submerged ice, fixed and landlocked, now the ice moves perforce with near surface currents. Thats to say that there's a substantial difference in energy loss between inducing waves in deeper denser water than in moving ice through air. If, as i assume, the ice presents little resistance to surface currents then all the energy that would have been consumed/lost at the deeper interface with denser water now goes into moving the ice. 
Looking at the recent movent/schism by Mosaic for instance, my guess would be that tidal forces induced a flow of Atlantic waters to pass east beneath the spreading Pacific waters and drop over Lomonosov into the deep, were the ice thick enough that would have passed unseen/unimagined.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 19, 2019, 06:07:16 AM
The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water.
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on December 19, 2019, 08:36:59 AM
The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water.
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.

Kind of. But up and down movements can create serious lateral flows depending on (mostly) the bathymetry.

Ice may not effect tides very much but it does effect tides effect on ice flows. I believe what johniepooboy is saying is that the tides were previously not able to create any lateral ice lateral movement due to thick ice pack, but that they are now due to ice pack weakness and mobility.

In general, the whole theory 33 YO John Miller is putting forward confuses me though.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 19, 2019, 11:43:47 AM
The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water.
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.
Tides move water back and forth over long distances, and effects of friction/bathymetry and coriolis/vorticity can generate net tidal residual flows and gyres. This could very well be the case for the North Atlantic/Barents/Arctic Ocean system, though I couldn't find anything very specific with a cursory search. Here's one related link:
Diurnal tides on the Barents Sea continental slope (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096706371400212X)

I hope johnm has more relevant material to share.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 19, 2019, 01:10:24 PM
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?

Just now there is a lot of news on the Internet about a very warm winter in Europe. Everywhere they write that last similar winter was in 2006-2007. Therefore, the correlation with the minima of the Arctic ice suggests itself.

I also came across studies about the possible connection of strong Arctic minima with El Nino and minima of solar activity (in 2007 there was a minimum of solar activity, in 2012, the maximum was the opposite).

I plotted it and you may well be onto something :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 19, 2019, 03:24:15 PM
I for one, like your finding correlations all over the place, ArcticMelt. Very impressive even if they turn out not being causation. How do you find them?

Just now there is a lot of news on the Internet about a very warm winter in Europe. Everywhere they write that last similar winter was in 2006-2007. Therefore, the correlation with the minima of the Arctic ice suggests itself.

I also came across studies about the possible connection of strong Arctic minima with El Nino and minima of solar activity (in 2007 there was a minimum of solar activity, in 2012, the maximum was the opposite).

I plotted it and you may well be onto something :)

It looks interesting, thanks.

The only thing you have to shift these values by a year. That is, December 2006 corresponds to the ice area in September 2007, and not in September 2006.

In general, there seems to be a clear connection with solar activity. The greatest loss of ice occurs during extremes of solar activity.

2007 is a minimum of solar activity. 2012 is the maximum of solar activity. Now, on the contrary, a new minimum of solar activity.

And then these switching of solar activity (up or down) will affect atmospheric processes: the temperature in Europe in winter, the phases of the Pacific oscillation or the fluctuation of the ice area in the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 19, 2019, 03:35:00 PM
Ah sorry about the mistake, I am pretty hungover today and did that earlier to avoid doing the work I should actually be doing.

You can see the code (sorry if you dont think R is code) on the left, so replicating the analysis and plots should be pretty straightforward with other data-sets- if you do like the way it was done.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Phil. on December 19, 2019, 04:23:13 PM
The result has been ever increasing tidal flows into the Arctic, leading to greater outflows of other water.
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.

Actually tides do move water laterally, the moon and sun do raise the water up and down but the earth moves with respect to the bulge thus there is flow wrt the earth's surface.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 19, 2019, 04:34:56 PM
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.

You should check the RAMMB once in a while. You can literally see the lateral movement all the time and all over the place.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=jpss&z=5&im=60&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=0&lat=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20191216160913&slider=-1&hide_controls=1&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=northern_hemisphere&p%5B0%5D=day_night_band&x=18153.322265625&y=16014.21484375
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 19, 2019, 04:39:29 PM
Ah sorry about the mistake, I am pretty hungover today and did that earlier to avoid doing the work I should actually be doing.

You can see the code (sorry if you dont think R is code) on the left, so replicating the analysis and plots should be pretty straightforward with other data-sets- if you do like the way it was done.

It’s easier for me to plot this graph in Excel.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 19, 2019, 04:40:04 PM
33 YO John Miller

Can you say anything without making shit personal? What is wrong with you?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 19, 2019, 05:46:54 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent is the lowest of record for Dec 18th in the 42-year @NSIDC data, less than a third of the 1981-2010 average though not too different from three of the past four years. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @amy_holman @ZLabe @ArcticResearch @KNOMnews @KYUKNews

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMKMPEnU8AAHRTc.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 19, 2019, 06:10:45 PM
33 YO John Miller

Can you say anything without making shit personal? What is wrong with you?

I dread to think how lowly the 92 in my name must be interpreted. But then again Einstein published four 1st author papers at 26- technically his best year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 19, 2019, 06:49:24 PM
33 YO John Miller

Can you say anything without making shit personal? What is wrong with you?

I dread to think how lowly the 92 in my name must be interpreted. But then again Einstein published four 1st author papers at 26- technically his best year.

I find your thoughts very interesting and worth to be considered. As to the quoted part:

an argument that i'm very careful to use, the replies are too foreseeable but I for one concur with you, anyone's thoughts, until proven otherwise, should be taken with 100% respect and without pre-justice.

Only remains to say, keep it coming and then the rudeness of some as well don't take much away from their contribution, just saying, it goes both sides.

The only thing that should count is the truth in what is said or written and eventully how much room for interpretation we are willing to accept.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 19, 2019, 07:05:54 PM
Wat?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on December 19, 2019, 10:34:32 PM
Currents (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Dominating-Arctic-Ocean-currents-with-inflowing-relative-warms-surface-currents-red-and_fig1_286480473) Tides (https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-schematic-pattern-of-the-model-M-2-energy-flux-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-and-adjacent_fig5_44021887) compare. Brief (https://www.uaf.edu/cfos/research/institute-of-marine-scien/zygmunt-kowalik-publicati/Kowalik-Tides.pdf), 5 pages
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on December 19, 2019, 10:51:30 PM
Animation (https://www.esr.org/research/polar-tide-models/movies/) with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges onto the Barentz shelf, that water having come from due south[+/-] is moving faster than the earths tangential surface speed so once on the shelf very little returns the same way, instead it flows into the basins and points east. That in turn forces deeper water to flow out through Fram, to a similar magnitude. The tidal inflow is periodic and variable but the outflow tends to be self similar and I suspect acts like a flywheel in that it will continue to pass water south despite tidal forcings. In this way Atlantification accelerates.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 20, 2019, 08:45:47 AM
Animation (https://www.esr.org/research/polar-tide-models/movies/) with the full moon around the 9th
So what I'm suggesting is that without ice there's nothing to inhibit the lateral flow of tidal surges

John, you are totally off on a mistaken tangent here in your two assumptions,  1) that the tides are somehow causing a major lateral movement in the Arctic ocean and 2) that surface sea ice would somehow inhibit this movement if it existed at all.

In my comment from a few days ago I wrote:
Sea ice doesn't change tidal movements in any significant way. And generally speaking, the tides do not move water laterally, it's an up and down movement. So there is no tidal inflow, and hence no tidal outflow.

Somehow a lot of people found it necessary to point out the blindingly obvious fact that up and down wave action will also cause lateral, i.e. back and forth, movement when the wave meets land. Anybody with half a brain knows this, everybody who has ever walked along a shore has seen this, and quite a lot of people have witnessed strong tidally induced flows in narrow fjords etc. - but nota bene, always first one way and then the other.

In my original comment this insignificant lateral movement was (perhaps optimistically) covered by me in the caveat "generally speaking". But it seems you can never caveat enough!

The gravitational pull of the moon and the sun does presumably cause an ever so slight east-to-west pull (seeing as how both celestial bodies move from east to west as observed from earth), I'm not sure if it's measurable at all (i.e. if any water can be observed to move due to this pull), but note that it is in the wrong direction! The main North-Atlantic tidal wave moves north and east, up the Atlantic and into the Arctic, i.e. in more or less the opposite direction to that caused by any gravitational pull, and again: It does not move any water. This seemingly illogical direction of the tidal wave is caused by quite lot of complicating factors, as is the fact that much oft the oceans do not see any significant tidal movement at all
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/M2_tidal_constituent.jpg (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/5e/M2_tidal_constituent.jpg)

To be precise, the tidal wave is stationary while the earth rotates. The two tidal bulges are on opposite sides of the planet, and a simplistic explanation is that one is caused by the gravitational pull of the moon and the other by the slight moon-ward shift of Earth's center of gravity, causing a fall in gravity on the opposite side to the moon. The sun adds it's mite, complicating matters.

The rise and fall of the surface of the ocean is caused mainly by gravity-induced changes in pressure, it is not caused by hundreds of thousands of cubic kilometers of water being pulled in from the sides and sent back again. The same effect can be observed when sea level changes by tens of centimeters, and up to 1 or 2 meters in extreme cases, with changes in atmospheric pressure. Pressure is primarily caused by gravity, less gravity means less pressure.

Just to add another caveat: I have read an interesting hypothesis that suggests that some (perhaps significant) part of the energy behind the AMOC overturning results from a combination of the up and down movement of the tidal wave, the momentum of the current and the serious obstacle that is the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. The AMOC crosses the ridge to the west of Portugal as shown on most diagrams, so if this effect is real then that's where it would be located. But to be honest, I don't really see how it could happen and I don't think that this hypothesis has found many takers.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 20, 2019, 12:28:41 PM
Thanks johnm33, I hadn't seen these before.

https://www.uaf.edu/cfos/research/institute-of-marine-scien/zygmunt-kowalik-publicati/Kowalik-Tides.pdf
Quote
The  largest  component  of  the  tide  in  the  Arctic  Ocean  is  the  semidiurnal  M2 (period  12.42h).  Since  the  tide  producing force for this constituent in the Arctic Ocean is very  small,  the  origin  of  this  wave  is  an  incoming  tide  from  the  Atlantic  Ocean.  The  M2  tide  entering  the  Arctic  Ocean  between  Greenland  and  Scandinavia  is  divided  by  Spitsbergen into two branches. The main wave enters through the Greenland Sea and the secondary wave propagates around Scandinavia  towards  the  White  Sea.  The  latter      has  amplitude at Northern Norway of about 1m. In the White Sea at the entrance  it grows to  about 2-3m and in the shallow Mezen Bay the amplitude is greater than 4m.   The  M2 wave  in  the  main  basin    of  the  Arctic  Ocean  propagates  during  one  period,  counterclockwise  around  an  amphidromic point located off the Canadian Archipelago. The tidal  amplitude  is  zero  at  an  amphidromic  point,  and  it  increases    towards  the  shoreline.  While  traveling  in  the Arctic Ocean the M2 wave undergoes transformation. When it impinges  on  the  North  Siberian  Shelf  its  amplitude  diminishes  through  the  bottom  friction.  Along  the  North  Siberian  Shelf  the  amplitude  is  about  20-30cm  and  further  the amplitude decreases to 5-10cm at the Alaskan shore. The M2   tidal currents in the deep basin are quite small of the order of 2cm/s. The strong currents were observed along the coasts in the shallow water of the Barents Sea, especially over  Spitsbergenbanken  and    close  to  the  Bear  Island.  The  strongest  currents  often  up  to  2m/s  occur  at  the  entrance    to  the  White  Sea.  Along  the    North  Siberian  Shelf, 
especially  in  the  region  of  the  New  Siberian  Islands,  the  M2   tide  currents  are  often  of  the  order  of  50  cm/s.  The  variability of the tidal currents is much stronger compared to  the  tidal  levels,  because  currents  depend  on  the  local  conditions, e.g., the currents along Alaska Beaufort coast are  of  the  order  of  5-10cm/s,  but  in  the  narrow  entrances  to the coastal lagoons they  can be enhanced several times. Amplitudes of the second semidiurnal constituent S2 (period 12h)  are  much  smaller  but  the  general  picture  of  the  wave  propagating  counterclockwise  in  the  main  basin  is  very  similar to the M2 wave. 
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-schematic-pattern-of-the-model-M-2-energy-flux-in-the-Arctic-Ocean-and-adjacent_fig5_44021887
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 20, 2019, 01:08:59 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg241474.html#msg241474

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/15 to 12/20, Forecast: 12/20 to 12/23.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 20, 2019, 05:15:31 PM
when the wave meets land

Tidal forces occur all over the planet all the time! And they cause currents, sheers, waves, upwellings, gyres - not only where they meet land! How is that not obvious to you, Binntho? I'm honestly baffled.  ???
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: arctic-watcher on December 20, 2019, 08:24:51 PM
With all the cold air headed toward Chukchi now it looks like final ice-over this weekend is almost certain.  Might get some nice gains in Bering too.  Isn't this almost the same timing as last year? 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 21, 2019, 10:05:21 AM
With all the cold air headed toward Chukchi now it looks like final ice-over this weekend is almost certain.  Might get some nice gains in Bering too.  Isn't this almost the same timing as last year?

Let's hope this balances the situation somewhat.

https://twitter.com/Climatologist49

Quote
Utqiaġvik (Barrow), Alaska, had a daily temperature below normal today for the first time since June 24th! #akwx @AlaskaWx

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMMwv6GVAAIAfWU.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 21, 2019, 11:36:20 AM
ArcticMelt2:
And look at those tiny blue dips and the huge red mountains on that chart!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 22, 2019, 08:29:22 AM
December 14-21.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg185141.html#msg185141).

Solstice.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 22, 2019, 10:02:24 AM
when the wave meets land

Tidal forces occur all over the planet all the time! And they cause currents, sheers, waves, upwellings, gyres - not only where they meet land! How is that not obvious to you, Binntho? I'm honestly baffled.  ???

Well, to me it seems obvious that a movement that is essentially up and down will not be doing much in the way of moving water laterally. Do you perhaps have links to any literature that details how the tidal forces cause "currents, sheers, waves, upwelling, gyres", nota bene "all over the planet all the time" ...

How many currents, sheers, waves, upwellings and gyres does the tidal force cause in the Pacific? How many in the Atlantic? Details, locations and documentation thereof would be well received, since any and all would be a true revelation.

But in all honesty - the lack of understanding in this forum of basic wave action is sometimes truly incredible. A lot of those writing here seem to think that waves in liquids actually transport liquids laterally. But they don't - tidal waves, tsunami waves or even your standard everyday ocean waves are almost exclusively up and down motions and ONLY cause lateral movement where other factors come into play, such as shelving forelands, beaches and shallows.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 22, 2019, 11:11:00 AM
Hmmm
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: J Cartmill on December 22, 2019, 01:00:39 PM
Very readable overview of open ocean tides here:

http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/tides-ocean.htm (http://oceanmotion.org/html/background/tides-ocean.htm)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on December 22, 2019, 01:05:56 PM
thanks bl.
Now imagine there's a surface current moving in the same direction as the wave, then think that after say 10,000years of repetitions [@6.5million] that very wave action caused the current. Didn't read this anywhere so no links but noticed whilst trying to figure out tidal action in Baffin that the currents tended to follow the tidal path, then looked around and saw that this was generally the case, so I supposed currents are residuals of tides, reinforced by inertially driven movements of waters as they move closer to/further from the equator, eventually taking on 'a life of their own'. A process in it's infancy in the Arctic.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.freegrab.net%2FTide%2520waves.gif&hash=47ddd767d2ff2d19d6dd594d6cf3e1e9)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 22, 2019, 01:32:37 PM
Hmmm
Has nobody ever tried moving a floating object by sending waves towards it? Try it in the bath! It can't be done, because waves are up and down movements of liquids.

There is of course always a very small lateral movement, something known to sea captains. Two ships too close together will pull towards each other because the waves between them are smaller than the waves to either side.

But basic physics, as well as common sense, both point to the obvious: Wave movement in liquids is not lateral movement. Not tidal waves, not wind driven waves, not earthquake generated waves. Except when they meet land, when the up and down is interrupted and changes to a from side-to-side movement.

And blumenkraft, I'm still waiting for your response to the following:

Do you perhaps have links to any literature that details how the tidal forces cause "currents, sheers, waves, upwelling, gyres", nota bene "all over the planet all the time" ...

How many currents, sheers, waves, upwellings and gyres does the tidal force cause in the Pacific? How many in the Atlantic? Details, locations and documentation thereof would be well received, since any and all would be a true revelation.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 22, 2019, 01:38:27 PM
johnm33 the tidal wave in the North Atlantic coincides with the direction of surface currents. But that does not indicate causality, and if you look at your own map of tidal waves and compare to maps of surface currents you will see that the surface current in the South Atlantic moves against the tidal wave, as does the surface current in the Northern East Pacific, as well as in the Southern West Pacific.

Ocean currents are not caused by tidal action, can we please stop this nonsense. Read up on ocean currents, there is plenty of material online, but ocean currents are basically caused by temperature differentials, as are the atmospheric currents, coupled with the earth's rotation.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on December 22, 2019, 01:44:50 PM
I'd suggest that anybody wanting to say more on waves causing lateral movement of water first take a look at wave propelled ships. A simple Google search will do it.  :o
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 22, 2019, 02:12:14 PM
Do you perhaps have links to any literature that details how the tidal forces cause "currents, sheers, waves, upwelling, gyres", nota bene "all over the planet all the time" ...

I'm having eyes to see. Hope that counts.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 22, 2019, 05:21:28 PM
Last weeks Fram export. You'll notice the 19th is missing, it never came in.  :-\
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 22, 2019, 05:28:39 PM
The 7-day hindsight mean GIF as well is missing the 19th. Not due to external issues though. I just saved the wrong one that day. Meh.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 22, 2019, 10:05:37 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Chukchi Sea #seaice continues to increase, though open water/low concentrations persist north of Bering Strait & east of Wrangel Island. Bering Sea ice extent only 34% of 1981-2010 average in @NSIDC data. Significant ice growth likely upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMZ9VFqUYAAackG.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 23, 2019, 01:22:56 PM
Full-size version available in the Nullschool Animations thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2905.msg241732.html#msg241732

pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/18 to 12/23, Forecast: 12/23 to 12/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [tiny version]
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: colchonero on December 23, 2019, 03:34:24 PM
It is going to get really really cold in Alaska. GFS has it at  20-30c below average on Climate Reanalyzer. :o

 This is the first time in years in winter, I see most CAB in "solid blue" in mid range forecast, for an extended period of time. I don't know though will it hold or not, but it is certainly nice to see, at least.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 23, 2019, 10:45:39 PM
The Barents Sea Ice continues to increase in area, extent and volume at well above recent years.

Note the ice thickness does not change that much.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 24, 2019, 07:25:16 AM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Chukchi Sea #seaice extent up to ~96% of the basin in  @NSIDC data. This makes Dec 22 the third latest for first date in the autumn for extent to reach ≥95%. The trend is extreme: ice-over is now typically four weeks later than ~1990. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @YJRosen

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EMfHUTaUcAA8Wy5.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on December 25, 2019, 10:00:42 AM
The snow cover extent drops well below average and it is especially low in Europe. The sun is low in the sky but it will turn back soon
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on December 25, 2019, 04:59:02 PM
Although sea-ice extent is not the lowest right now, volume appears to be low, and might influence extent to become a low maximum this winter.
2012, 2016, 2019 compared.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on December 25, 2019, 05:00:57 PM
Deleted thickness up to 2 metres.
2012, 2016, 2019 compared.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on December 25, 2019, 05:13:43 PM
Although sea-ice extent is not the lowest right now, volume appears to be low, and might influence extent to become a low maximum this winter.
2012, 2016, 2019 compared.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

If I remember correctly, DMI modified their volume model in a recent year, so that it is not possible to directly compare 2012 with now, maybe 2016 too.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on December 25, 2019, 07:18:13 PM
Although sea-ice extent is not the lowest right now, volume appears to be low, and might influence extent to become a low maximum this winter.
2012, 2016, 2019 compared.

http://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume/#c23629

If I remember correctly, DMI modified their volume model in a recent year, so that it is not possible to directly compare 2012 with now, maybe 2016 too.

what you say makes sense but be assured that the general picture by using any other source remains the same.

generally speaking i and many others are pointing out since long that ulitmately it's volume that counts. Extent for one could be seen as "ice weather" while volume represents the "ice climate" and the trend is obvious and therefore details don't matter.

also even if models are adapted to latest level of knowledge and computing, that does not mean that ice thickness in general and overall changes significantly between models, there may be an impact of +/- something and/or regionally but after all the ice is getting thinner and thinner and no model or algorithm is saying otherwise.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on December 26, 2019, 06:59:44 PM
In 72h according to GFS very cold surface temperatures Arctic-wide, will make a bridge between the usually gelid Greenland and Siberia, leaving Europe and North America relatively warm.
Cold Arctic / warm (some) continents.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mdoliner on December 26, 2019, 08:42:15 PM
When ice forms it gives up heat. I assume that ice that forms early in the freezing season gives up more of that heat to the atmosphere than ice that forms later under already frozen seas. Is this extra heat significant or merely a rounding figure?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on December 26, 2019, 09:23:44 PM
It freezes every year and it freezes around the same temperature so it loses about as much heat if it is a similar chunk you are considering year over year. There is energy radiating out the whole polar night aka winter.

Ice types (see formation):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_ice#Classification_based_on_age

 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 27, 2019, 05:37:01 AM
MDoliner, for how i understand it, there are still some question marks on those variables (like heat flux). This is one of the reasons MOSAIC is taking place. They want to find out.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on December 27, 2019, 08:12:04 AM
December 19-26.

2018 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg185404.html#msg185404).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 27, 2019, 10:05:56 AM
The Bering Straight is frozen up,
the Chuckchi is totally frozen.
See Aluminium's gif above to see the gate closing.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 27, 2019, 10:16:07 AM
... even the Nares is getting there.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on December 27, 2019, 12:26:31 PM
https://go.nasa.gov/37ei6oZ , dec21-26, click to run
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on December 27, 2019, 12:27:44 PM
After being a region of ice pain throughout 2019, the Chukchi has made a big jump thanks to supporting weather and completed freeze-up a few days before the turn of the year, avoiding the fate of 2016 and 2017 both of which achieved the feat only in the following January.
Will the Bering follow suit and manage a big jump using the same weather? If so, it could affect the extent maximum, which is typically decided by the Bees: Bering, Baffin, Barents, and (B)Okhotsk.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 27, 2019, 01:52:07 PM

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

This present NH mean sea level set-up reminds me very much of December 1988. That was the month that began a very mild winter in western Europe and the time when I first started to take notice of "global warming" or whatever it was called back then.

Here is the Dec 1988 pattern and the current GFS 10 mean forecast.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on December 27, 2019, 07:43:51 PM

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

This present NH mean sea level set-up reminds me very much of December 1988. That was the month that began a very mild winter in western Europe and the time when I first started to take notice of "global warming" or whatever it was called back then.

Here is the Dec 1988 pattern and the current GFS 10 mean forecast.

That looks rather interesting! 1989's sea ice was fairly unremarkable, following a similar path to its neighbouring years according to NSIDC (see graph from charctic screenshotted below (if I've got attatching files right!)), though it did have some early losses in April and May. Perhaps 2020 will also look very similar to 2018 and 2019, while having even earlier losses in the start of melting season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on December 28, 2019, 12:13:10 AM

To the "old hands" out there ... wondering if this is what the "old normal" used to look like...? 
A glimpse of the past, for a week at least...?

This present NH mean sea level set-up reminds me very much of December 1988. That was the month that began a very mild winter in western Europe and the time when I first started to take notice of "global warming" or whatever it was called back then.

Here is the Dec 1988 pattern and the current GFS 10 mean forecast.
Hey, Thank You for the info, Niall.  I'm "new ice" and very interested in the knowledge on this board.  The low pressure on the - what do you call it - Russia/Norway side of the Arctic ... how does that impact radiation outbound (cooling)...? 

I've been trying to get the relationships down - low pressure = rising air, etc ... but why the low?  With little or no cloud cover.  It's a mystery to me ....

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 28, 2019, 01:43:12 AM



Hey, Thank You for the info, I'm "new ice" and very interested in the knowledge on this board.  The low pressure on the - what do you call it - Russia/Norway side of the Arctic ... how does that impact radiation outbound (cooling)...? 

I've been trying to get the relationships down - low pressure = rising air, etc ... but why the low?  With little or no cloud cover.  It's a mystery to me ....


In the present set-up we have the polar vortex in the upper atmosphere near the pole and it's keeping the cold air locked up in the Arctic.

Good for ice in the Arctic now but low snow cover extent would be concern come Spring time.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on December 28, 2019, 03:44:36 AM
The low snow cover is mainly down to the lack of snowfall across Europe, I would of think this will has less effect than say the Eurosian snow cover on sea ice.


Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 28, 2019, 11:23:05 AM
https://twitter.com/ZLabe

Quote
Bering sea ice extent (near Alaska) remains well below average. However, it is beginning to quickly expand in response to favorable weather conditions (cold, northerly flow). Data from @NSIDC.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EM0xyPZWoAADoYp.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on December 28, 2019, 11:02:30 PM



Hey, Thank You for the info, I'm "new ice" and very interested in the knowledge on this board.  The low pressure on the - what do you call it - Russia/Norway side of the Arctic ... how does that impact radiation outbound (cooling)...? 

I've been trying to get the relationships down - low pressure = rising air, etc ... but why the low?  With little or no cloud cover.  It's a mystery to me ....


In the present set-up we have the polar vortex in the upper atmosphere near the pole and it's keeping the cold air locked up in the Arctic.

Good for ice in the Arctic now but low snow cover extent would be concern come Spring time.

Thanks again ... I think I need to read more history ... it's fascinating!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on December 29, 2019, 12:25:40 AM
Quote from: mabarnes

Thanks again ... I think I need to read more history ... it's fascinating!

No problem !

And the next chapter to read up on is what can happen to disturb the polar vortex - namely Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).

Sudden warming in the stratosphere near the pole can have a significant effect on conditions down in the troposphere. There have been SSW events in recent winters but this winter, warmings have been only peripheral, so no sign of any major SSW yet this winter.

Edit : And hurrah - I see that has tipped me over the 500 posts and into the Grease Ice !  ;D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on December 29, 2019, 01:52:06 AM
And whats more, there are no indications of any imminent SSW events.

Its strange how a toasty Chukchi so quickly transitioned into extreme cold over Alaska (which looks to be sustained for the [accurately] foreseeable future).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 29, 2019, 08:56:00 AM
Edit : And hurrah - I see that has tipped me over the 500 posts and into the Grease Ice !  ;D

Congratulations man! \o/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 29, 2019, 06:08:20 PM
This is a GIF showing the Lincoln Sea via I5 band (infrared) before and after the storm that just passed.

The ice stikes me as weak...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 29, 2019, 06:34:58 PM
The Arctic finally cooling down now, showing in the 7-day highlight mean.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on December 29, 2019, 07:25:42 PM
Barents extent is very big this year and this might explain the stability of the polar vortex, keeping the arctic relatively cold and the continents warmish
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 29, 2019, 07:50:32 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Colder weather has allowed for significant #seaice growth in the Bering Sea. But…ice extent far below long-term average in @NSIDC data, at 3rd lowest of record for the date. Weather pattern looks good for continued ice growth at least another week. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EM-GOLjUcAA3PHg.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on December 29, 2019, 08:28:31 PM
Fram export via SAR imagery.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on December 31, 2019, 01:38:27 PM
NullSchool image for New Year's Eve

Cold wind pouring out of the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea


https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/12/31/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-42.61,94.89,562/loc=1.394,89.560
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on December 31, 2019, 07:30:55 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Alaska 2019 climate review starts at the top: Utqiaġvik had by far the warmest year in the past 99 years, more the 11F (6C) above the pre-1980 average. Think about that. Eight of the 10 warmest years in #2010s. Why? Collapse of #seaice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @ajatnuvuk

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENInXo3UwAAAJtf.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 01, 2020, 01:37:34 AM
https://go.nasa.gov/39sABbd  dec25-31 ctr
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 02, 2020, 10:37:32 AM
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Standardized anomalies of annual regional #Arctic sea ice extent - now updated through 2019. New record low this year for the Chukchi Sea.

[Data from @NSIDC; Bright blue = maximum year, bright red = minimum year, vertical lines = 2007/2012/2016/2019]

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENOnI6HXUAAiBU_.png)

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
The Bering Sea average ice extent for December was second lowest in the 42-year from @NSIDC passive microwave data, only 41% of 1981-2010 average. Good weather now for ice growth but late start sure to reduce thickness. #akwx #Arctic #seaice @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @KYUKNews

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENOVeGaUcAAhZiX.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 02, 2020, 06:43:12 PM
https://twitter.com/zlabe
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENOnI6HXUAAiBU_.png)

Ignoring Hudson Bay, which is a different arena, compared to the other Arctic ocean regions, the CAA shows somewhat less extreme and less consistent decline than the others.  I suspect that is because wind and water currents pile up remaining ice in the CAA.  And with declining thickness and thus increased ice mobility, the piling ice effect continues as strong or stronger than pre-2000, supplying ice to the CAA from other regions.  That all fits with the idea that CAA will be the last refuge for declining Sept (then Aug/Oct/July) ice persistence.  Does this make sense, or am I just making this up?



Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 02, 2020, 10:42:38 PM
That all fits with the idea that CAA will be the last refuge for declining Sept (then Aug/Oct/July) ice persistence.  Does this make sense, or am I just making this up?

In the late 2019 melting season, the CAA ice didn't look to me like it was fated to be a "last refuge" in future years. Probably the megacrack, should it become a recurrent feature, changes the CAA situation entirely. I'm just going on unscientific hunches here, based on watching the ice awhile.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 03, 2020, 04:50:14 AM
Happy New Year everyone!
Just dropping in to let you know it's 10°C here in Antwerp, at 5 am, in deep winter...
This is insane!

https://wow.meteo.be/nl/?id=b8752975-ebea-e711-bd60-0003ff5962e0&lat=51.2127041288397&long=4.43905472517008
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 03, 2020, 08:47:53 AM
Did Nullschool change it's data set for ocean temperature? That Svalbard hotspot is gone, and the overall look is different.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-43.52,59.73,873
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 03, 2020, 08:57:33 AM
Judging by the ice, or better to say by the lack thereof, SSTs are still high there.

Happy future to you too, Freegrass :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 03, 2020, 10:50:53 AM
Did Nullschool change it's data set for ocean temperature? That Svalbard hotspot is gone, and the overall look is different.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-43.52,59.73,873

Happy New Year to you too Freegrass !

Yes it has been a very mild winter in Europe so far. This morning for example it is + 2 C in Moscow, +4 C in St Petersburg and +5 C in Helsinki.

Yes Nullschool have changed their data source see these two images. New source (which is more correct for SST in my opinion is OSTIA/UK Met +GHRSST + CMEMS

Old source I gleaned from the old nullchool thread was RTG SST/NCEP
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 03, 2020, 01:41:02 PM
uni-hamburg amsr2uhh, atlantic side, dec25-jan2.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 03, 2020, 06:10:40 PM
Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948

Quote
December 31 2019,  with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date,  surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018)
.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 03, 2020, 06:20:06 PM
Yes Nullschool have changed their data source see these two images. New source (which is more correct for SST in my opinion is OSTIA/UK Met +GHRSST + CMEMS

Old source I gleaned from the old nullchool thread was RTG SST/NCEP
Thanks Niall! (Is your name pronounced as Neal, or Nile?)
This new data set does looks better than the old one, but it'll take some time to get used to it again.

I'm always watching the El Nino pattern that now seems to be prevalent all year round. Another one is predicted for this year, again...

The next expected El Nino, due to peak in late 2020, could push global average annual temperature rise to a new record in 2021, the researchers said.

https://www.voanews.com/science-health/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-based-earlier-warning-method
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 03, 2020, 06:32:30 PM
Coldest New Years Eve Cold Temperature North Pole in Meteorological history, since 1948

Quote
December 31 2019,  with Polar Vortex off center weighted temperature measuring -48 C CTNP over Ellesmere Island, the coldest such air ever measured for this date,  surpassing all others by 4 degrees C (1948-2018)
.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/01/coldest-new-years-eve-cold-temperature.html
Is there any data on the temperatures in Siberia? It looks like southern winds are keeping Siberia pretty warm these days, and that can't be good for the coming summer and the permafrost...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 03, 2020, 06:58:11 PM
Yes, Freegrass, the article mentioned how the air around this tiny vortex is rather warm.

Europe snow cover is also below average.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 03, 2020, 06:58:50 PM
Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 03, 2020, 07:07:36 PM
Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.
Other than for the climate and the animals, I don't care about the fires in Climate Change denying Australia with it's huge coal mines and right wing criminal nutcases. Let them burn in hell!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on January 03, 2020, 07:44:38 PM
uni-hamburg amsr2uhh, atlantic side, dec25-jan2.

wow! whatsuppwiththat?? has the new  melting season begun??? :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 03, 2020, 08:00:21 PM
I think it's due to cracks and open leads. Apparently it was stormy there.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 03, 2020, 10:27:52 PM
I think it's due to cracks and open leads. Apparently it was stormy there.
It was, and.....

UK Metoffice says the jet stream is going to be a blast next week from the mid-Atlantic heading north-east, bringing lows and gales with it.

Could be really stormy on the Atlantic front. Attached is NullSchool for the 8th January.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 03, 2020, 11:02:10 PM
(Is your name pronounced as Neal, or Nile?)

Yes, it's sounds more like the African river.  :)

But anyway back to the freezing season and I have to say I am surprised by ice conditions currently off the west Spitzbergen coast.

The West Spitzbergen current normally keeps this side of Svalbard ice-free. The current norwegian ice chart shows quite substantial ice present. Also the SSTs are quite low compared to the recent years at this  time of year. The +4 C and above area (coloured magenta) is quite south of the island.

And yet others have highlighted that there is quite a bit of movement on the Atlantic side at present.

Questions: Is this a sign of a weakening of the West Spitzbergen ? Is it AMOC related ? I wonder what the sea temperature conditions are like at depth ?
It looks like it arrived from around the south tip of the island. But other years this would melt out quickly.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 03, 2020, 11:11:16 PM
Contrast ice chart this time 3 years ago, with West Spitzbergen SSTs approx 2 C higher. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on January 04, 2020, 12:02:19 AM
Freegrass, it will also dry out Australia, so next fire season will be even worse than this one.
Other than for the climate and the animals, I don't care about the fires in Climate Change denying Australia with it's huge coal mines and right wing criminal nutcases. Let them burn in hell!

Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people. Saying Australia can burn in hell when there are 20,000 people trapped between firestorms and the ocean is really disgusting.
I have no idea how this climate denying Govt got voted in, they are probably going to be gone soon but then the opposition isnt much better. The Oz Govt is corrupt, the people are sick of it.

So, please be careful about what you say about these types of things.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 04, 2020, 02:26:27 AM
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 04, 2020, 02:56:01 AM
(Is your name pronounced as Neal, or Nile?)

Yes, it's sounds more like the African river.  :)

But anyway back to the freezing season and I have to say I am surprised by ice conditions currently off the west Spitzbergen coast.

The West Spitzbergen current normally keeps this side of Svalbard ice-free. The current norwegian ice chart shows quite substantial ice present. Also the SSTs are quite low compared to the recent years at this  time of year. The +4 C and above area (coloured magenta) is quite south of the island.

And yet others have highlighted that there is quite a bit of movement on the Atlantic side at present.

Questions: Is this a sign of a weakening of the West Spitzbergen ? Is it AMOC related ? I wonder what the sea temperature conditions are like at depth ?
It looks like it arrived from around the south tip of the island. But other years this would melt out quickly.
So Niall Dollard basically means the money river?
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mysmiley.net%2Fimgs%2Fsmile%2Fanimated%2Fanim_63.gif&hash=12421d4db510277fab153e866021f024)

I was just looking at the new ocean data on Nullschool, and now you can really see the currents very clearly. If there's just a little difference somewhere in the speed of the AMOC, it's quite normal that in that area around Svalbard, where hot and cold water meet, that big differences will occur.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=currents/orthographic=-5.10,75.59,3000

I've been pondering on a new theory of mine.

If the AMOC is indeed slowing down, that would mean that less (but warmer) water is entering the arctic ocean from the Atlantic side.

I've read somewhere that the water level in the Chukchi sea is lower than the water level in the Bering sea, which results in the Bering Strait current usually flowing from the ever increasingly hotter Bering sea, toward the Chukchi sea. Unless the wind direction is south.

If the AMOC is indeed slowing down, then less water will be entering the arctic ocean from the Atlantic side. Then it would also be reasonable to presume that the water level in the arctic ocean must be going down. Which would in turn increase the inflow of hot Bering sea water into the Arctic ocean. Speeding up the warming of the arctic ocean from the Pacific side.

Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades? If my theory is correct, it should be detectable there.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on January 04, 2020, 06:38:57 AM
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perpective and grow some empathy.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 04, 2020, 08:02:25 AM
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

IIRC you are Polish, aren't you? By your logic that makes you a religious fundamentalist and right-winger. I don't think you are though.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 04, 2020, 03:42:52 PM
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.
My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2020, 09:10:30 PM
Wind and warmth heading up to the Atlantic front over the next few days.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on January 04, 2020, 11:43:39 PM
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.
My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

This is the last mention of this on this thread, if you want to continue, do it on the "I am an ignorant, pedestal standing idiot thread"

I suspect most people here know how screwed we are. I know it as well. You are preaching to the choir and sounding like you are enlightening people. It sounds stupid, to be honest.

500+ million animals dead, large destruction of forest and it will be ongoing for at least to more months. How the Govt here has allowed the destruction of the environment is criminal, and exporting coal is beyond belief, more so when demand is dropping.
The last election the Govt got in with less than 50% of the votes.
We have Murdoch media running rampant swaying public opinion into climate denial. And Govt corruption increases more over time to maintain their power (they are attempting to put through a law that could jail climate protesters up to 21 years and it is looking like it will get through).
Climate activists are disappearing.
So, yeah, you can stick your higher than thou attitude where it hurts.
In the meantime, indigenous people and people without money are losing homes, lives and livelihoods, many of which would be included in your group of truly poor people because, while Australia is rich on paper, only the top 0.5% hold the majority of that money and wealth.
And to be honest, while out per capita emissions is extremely high, and it is a country I am embarrassed to be living in, the cause of this problem includes many other rich countries with people who dont deserve to be relegated to "Who gives a fuck".
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 05, 2020, 09:30:05 AM
You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.
It's not going to kill everybody on the planet. What rubbish. But attitudes as those expressed here are responsible for killing a hell of a lot of people through the ages. The righteousness of the apocalypticists is the biggest threat to human societies everywhere.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 05, 2020, 10:22:42 AM
Freegrass, where do you live? Will you feel the same when that place burns? If you have access to the Internet you have a carbon footprint of your own bigger than those poor people.
When it’s your turn remember your posts here.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on January 05, 2020, 12:15:27 PM
Quote
It's not going to kill everybody on the planet

Tell me, what makes you so sure of it? I would really like to know. From my perspective, there is nothing holding a habitable climate together, other than accumulated luck of a favorable climate for a long time.

We are changing that luck induced climate in ways no one can possibly understand.

99.9999% of all species ever have gone extinct. What makes you so sure we are different? Why should a climate change of a magnitude greater than all mass extinctions before of us not result in the extinction of humans? Have you considered the wars this will bring in your calculations?

It is 100% reasonable to fear for your personal life in the face of climate change. It is the logical, and natural response.  Is it cool, reassuring or comfortable? NO. And it shouldn't be. Fear is what activates the human defenses and fear of climate change is 100% acceptable as long as you follow rule number one. Don't Panic.


That said, being glad for what climate change will indiscriminately bring is just really bad karma. Like Tom said, Freegrass, you are using the internet. Like all of us, you are guilty of exerting too much change over the world. So if we judge you by the same measure as you judge these people. we should be glad when climate change hits you too. I won't be. Like almost everyone else, you are a victim of the circumstances.

The people who are to blame are people who profited from lying about climate change (fraud) and officials who grossly neglected their duties by hiding climate change from the public. they must be used to set an example out of them and launch every other living person on this planet on a path to climate change action.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on January 05, 2020, 12:42:56 PM
There is no one to "Blame" Intelligent human beings have created an amazing world. Those living 150 years ago...shit! 50 years ago!!...could never possibly imagine what has been created, transforming transportation, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing...EVERYTHING imaginable...and all to the betterment of humans. We live longer, healthier, richer lives in the west...and that has spread like wildfire...oops...to the darkest places on earth. We now have a big problem with climate change , partly because of all this...but it's nothing we cannot manage.

So utterly exhausted by alarmism.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on January 05, 2020, 12:57:38 PM
Liars who profited from their lies about climate change and officials with sworn duties who lied to their people about climate change need to face justice, like Nazis. An example must be made.

Quote
So utterly exhausted by alarmism.


I'm much more exhausted by the increasing disasters. They will only get worse. It's like compound interest in reverse.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: echoughton on January 05, 2020, 01:04:59 PM
Liars who profited from their lies about climate change and officials with sworn duties who lied to their people about climate change need to face justice, like Nazis. An example must be made.

Quote
So utterly exhausted by alarmism.


I'm much more exhausted by the increasing disasters. They will only get worse. It's like compound interest in reverse.

Like companies who supply energy to heat and cool homes? And politicians who don't want their constituents to freeze to death or roast in their bedrooms? If you think it okay to bring these people and corporations up on some trumped-up charges of crimes against humanity, YOU are the Nazi. I'm done
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pleun on January 05, 2020, 01:27:13 PM
All politicians lie to the public. it's in their nature and inherent of their function. But I think there are two subgroups : one that has the publics best interest at heart and one that has a different agenda, usually their own benefit. It is the latter group that people like Archimid and myself have a problem with...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Archimid on January 05, 2020, 01:36:24 PM
If they lied about climate change to preserve their profits, they need to pay. If they never engaged in denial or even better, they are looking for solutions, then they are innocent.

The problem of making the world sustainable is no one's fault because it is everyone's fault. However, those that delayed the transition through deceit and for-profit must pay. I have no problem with those who profit without deceit, as they are just playing by the rules or those who deceive without profit because they are just useful idiots.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on January 05, 2020, 02:06:08 PM
Is there so much ice in the Arctic this year that there is no need for the freezing season stuff anymore?
Please, get back on topic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on January 05, 2020, 02:20:07 PM
this is the freezing season .. so just chill .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 05, 2020, 02:32:26 PM
Please bear in mind that you need to state the difference between hating the politics and not the people.
Politicians are representatives of the people, aren't they?

Not always.
And the politics of a country is not a reason to hate on the people who live there. People are people. Get some perspective and grow some empathy.
My empathy is with the poor people in poor countries that are currently already dying because of climate change that they had no part in.
My empathy is with the animals that are dying, nature that is being destroyed, and entire ecosystems that are being destroyed because of the greed of my own kind, the white ass greedy monkeys.

You still don't get it what we're fighting for, do you? Climate change is gonna kill everyone on this planet. So excuse me for not feeling sorry for a few idiots that would STILL keep those coal mines open after their entire house burned down.

This conversation is best carried on here.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1428.350.html

Please stop cluttering a thread that is supposed to track the freeze season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 05, 2020, 04:24:07 PM
For a change, a post that may have some relevance to the 2019-20 Freezing season

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 05, 2020, 05:17:45 PM
Sunday movie time!  ;D

7day hindsight mean.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 05, 2020, 05:18:38 PM
SAR Fram export.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 05, 2020, 09:24:53 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea ice extent has expanded significantly with sustained north winds. Currently at 83% of 1981-2010 average extent from @NSIDC data, but a bit behind 2019. Change in the weather pattern is likely later this week that will slow #seaice growth. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ENiJB0xVAAYFAg0.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 05, 2020, 10:36:35 PM
Extent is growing late but very fast. Very unlike 2017/2018 and a little bit behind 2018/2019 which declined very early in February. It will be interesting to see if late forming ice melts out early again this year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 06, 2020, 10:17:04 AM
December 24 - January 5.

2018/2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg185774.html#msg185774).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on January 06, 2020, 10:39:01 AM
The new thin ice is forming in the Laptev sea while the old ice is moving to the Fram strait. This is the usuall pattern but this summer the Siberian and the Chuckchi side could be vulnurable because of lack of thick ice
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 06, 2020, 02:06:26 PM
Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?
Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 06, 2020, 04:53:22 PM
Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?
Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

here (the format is a bit weird but the data is great):

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 06, 2020, 07:32:48 PM
Is there any data on the strength of the current in the Bering strait over the last few decades?
Everyone was attacking my drunken message, but I didn't get any response on the question if there is any data available on the strength of the Bering Strait current over the last few decades? I would like to know if that current became stronger, or stayed the same in the last 50 years or so, but I can't find any graphs on Google..

here (the format is a bit weird but the data is great):

http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/BeringStraitSeasonalInterannualChange2017.html
Thanks Simon! This is what I was looking for.
Quote
Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990-2015) document a long-term increase (~0.01Sv/yr whole record, ~0.02Sv since 2000) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic.  Between 2002 and present (2015), all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (~0.8Sv).
Does this mean that my theory could be true? That the inflow from the Bering strait increases as the AMOC slows down?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Neven on January 07, 2020, 10:52:27 AM
I've been ill for a few days, so sorry for not responding to complaints regarding Freegrass' 'drunken message'. I do not necessarily have a problem with the content of the message, although I believe these things can be expressed in more nuanced - or less drunken - ways. I do, however, have a problem with the derailment potential of such remarks in this central forum thread, as evidenced. So, sorry again, for not responding in time. And Freegrass, don't make such remarks over here, drunk or not, thanks.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 11:12:36 AM
I've been ill for a few days, so sorry for not responding to complaints regarding Freegrass' 'drunken message'. I do not necessarily have a problem with the content of the message, although I believe these things can be expressed in more nuanced - or less drunken - ways. I do, however, have a problem with the derailment potential of such remarks in this central forum thread, as evidenced. So, sorry again, for not responding in time. And Freegrass, don't make such remarks over here, drunk or not, thanks.
Hi Neven. So sorry to hear you've been ill. Hope you're feeling better right now!
My apologies for that message, but sometimes I just get so depressed and angry when I see our beautiful planet destroyed...

If I can make a suggestion, I would delete messages that contain personal attacks. That's the rule on the investors hub message board. No personal attacks, because it's those messages that really mess up a good conversation.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 07, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
Figure 7C from that paper seems to suggest that the damage to the Chuchki in terms of Oceanic heat transfer is being done in high-summer (~ June, July, ~ August) and not just in the Autumn when the effects manifest.

I suppose in a way that makes sense, but its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 12:21:58 PM
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 07, 2020, 01:24:04 PM
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 07, 2020, 01:36:35 PM
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue
But do you think that will actually be done?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 07, 2020, 01:40:24 PM
...its still interesting to see peer-reviewed data showing this.
I think we're already seeing the results during the melting and freezing season, no? It took ages for the Chukchi sea to freeze over, and during summer, most of the melting is on the Pacific side, while melting on the Atlantic side wasn't all that fierce last year.

The danger I see is that most of the methane hydrates are located on the side that's warming up the fastest. When more heat starts to enter the Arctic ocean from the Bering sea, this puts those hydrates at even more risks of melting much sooner...

Several billion tonnes of cement poured into the strait and a Beluga trebuchet to prevent ecological disaster will fix the issue
But do you think that will actually be done?

Personally I dont think Geoengineering on that scale is ever a good idea, even if it would almost certainly help preserve ice.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 02:04:17 PM
Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did we just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?

Edit: And when you have less hot water flowing in from the Bering strait, you also have less cold water flowing out through the Fram...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 07, 2020, 02:20:09 PM
Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did I just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?
No. The law of unintended consequences would be bound to apply. AGW would still happen,
If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

It is a lunatic idea and thus is likely to be attempted. After all, a mere couple of hundred million tonnes of cement should be enough to make sufficient concrete for the job, and that's only 5% of annual world cement production.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 02:33:32 PM
Why cement? Just drop a lot of rocks into the Bering Strait until the flow decreases to a level that preserves the ice, but still allows marine life do its thing. It's maybe not so crazy at all...

Did I just save the planet by closing the door of the fridge?
It is a lunatic idea and thus is likely to be attempted.
Funny, but true!  :-\

But I don't really think it's all that crazy if you just start by reducing the flow to its original state. And you could do this slowly. Poor in some rocks, and see what happens. Poor in some more, and when bad things start to happen, stop pouring and take out some rocks again.

It would surely give us more time with those dangerous hydrates...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 02:55:52 PM
If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

I actually think that by stopping hot water to enter from the Bering sea, that the cooling of the Arctic would help to protect the permafrost.

The flow of the water is always into the Arctic ocean, and so no cold water ever flows from the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea, unless there is a southern wind. (this needs a fact check) So by stopping hot water to enter the Arctic, you keep it cool, which will help to keep our planet cool.

AGW will indeed still continue. It needs to be stopped. But maybe we can stop a disaster by doing this. It's cheap, easy, and low impact on marine life IMHO. Although I'm sure a lot more educated people than me will have something to say about this...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 07, 2020, 03:14:21 PM
Yep, the current in Bering Strait is mostly northwards, though with occasional reversals. The surface is quite rarely outbound of Arctic, the bottom (c.50m deep) more often, but the net is usually northwards. Formerly Oyashio-current was more powerful when Ohotsk and Bering Sea had thicker ice.

If someone did the dam there they'd better open it when ever current is southbound, I guess.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 07, 2020, 03:24:52 PM
In my effort to be facetious I have dragged up a pretty long standing discussion about the dam which you can find over at

"Stupid questions :o"

I think it was gerontocrat himself (could be wrong though) who provided me with some good reading over there about it, if any of you want to have a look.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 03:26:59 PM
Yep, the current in Bering Strait is mostly northwards, though with occasional reversals. The surface is quite rarely outbound of Arctic, the bottom (c.50m deep) more often, but the net is usually northwards. Formerly Oyashio-current was more powerful when Ohotsk and Bering Sea had thicker ice.

If someone did the dam there they'd better open it when ever current is southbound, I guess.
The big question is where that cold water would have most of its benefits; Cooling the arctic, or cooling the giant pacific ocean...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=currents/orthographic=-175.46,60.85,2647

Edit: here's a crazy thought... Did the closing a change in direction of the current in the Bering Strait cause Ice ages? Is the Bering Strait our termostat?

Edit2: I love this idea... During an ice age the ice builds up in the arctic, which in turn will push the earth's crust down. And at a certain point in time, the arctic will have dropped so much, that the hot water from the Pacific start pouring into the arctic again through the Bering Strait. Heating up the arctic ocean, ending the ice age, raising the land again, reversing the current again, causing a new Ice age, etc...

How feasible is this hypothesis?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RikW on January 07, 2020, 04:07:47 PM
not; since sea-ice will have almost no effect on the balance distribution :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: FrostKing70 on January 07, 2020, 04:35:39 PM
Let's be careful not to spend to much time and effort on dealing with a symptom of the problem...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on January 07, 2020, 04:36:32 PM
Freegrass and all, having just been told a no-no about derailment of this thread, please avoid further derailment by the Bering Strait dam idea. It has its own thread (with 181 posts!), but in any case this is certainly not the place for such discussion.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 04:42:42 PM
Freegrass and all, having just been told a no-no about derailment of this thread, please avoid further derailment by the Bering Strait dam idea. It has its own thread (with 181 posts!), but in any case this is certainly not the place for such discussion.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1545.msg76945.html)
Thanks Oren. Good to know my idea isn't all that crazy after all. I'll read up on the topic over there. Thanks!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 07, 2020, 06:24:12 PM
If warmth can't enter the Arctic Ocean through the Strait then at other times cold can't exit the Arctic into the North Pacific. The Bering Sea would likely heat up even faster - perhaps large parts of Alaska and far East Russia too, accelerating permafrost melt and thus methane and CO2 emissions.

I actually think that by stopping hot water to enter from the Bering sea, that the cooling of the Arctic would help to protect the permafrost.

The flow of the water is always into the Arctic ocean, and so no cold water ever flows from the Arctic Ocean into the Bering Sea, unless there is a southern wind. (this needs a fact check) So by stopping hot water to enter the Arctic, you keep it cool, which will help to keep our planet cool.

AGW will indeed still continue. It needs to be stopped. But maybe we can stop a disaster by doing this. It's cheap, easy, and low impact on marine life IMHO. Although I'm sure a lot more educated people than me will have something to say about this...

Blocking the Bering is more akin to putting a blanket over your air conditioner heat exchanger, rather than closing your fridge door. The AC heat exchanger gets really cold: The rest of the room heats up until equilibrium is reached.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 07, 2020, 07:26:53 PM
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 07, 2020, 07:30:06 PM
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

https://go.nasa.gov/39PbQGg
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: longwalks1 on January 07, 2020, 07:34:13 PM
The beluga trebuchet lets me know that it is <<sarc>>  please move on.  SimonF92 I really did enjoy your sarcasm.  A team of narwhals assist  to load the trebuchets buckets appeared to me mentally and I spit some of the coffee in my mouth.. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 07, 2020, 07:43:17 PM
gnnng sdlkto vlspto  ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 07, 2020, 09:22:20 PM
gnnng sdlkto vlspto  ;)
Nice synoptic view.  Took me a while to figure out the legend - each frame is a day starting in September 2019 to Jan. 6, 2020.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on January 07, 2020, 10:37:29 PM
thanks Uniquorn .. looks like the whole Arctic is as directionless this season as Polarstern's buoys . Very different to recent years and poles apart from last year's charge from Siberia toward Fram . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 07, 2020, 10:44:39 PM
Would like to let everyone here working intently to derail this thread that I have decided to no longer visit this thread for freezing season updates as I do not have the time to waste.

Congrats!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on January 07, 2020, 11:01:12 PM
I cribbed this Worldview set-up from Uniquorn's, in the Megacrack thread. Then I zoomed in on the ice east of Barrow. From this view of four days ago to today, this "Brightness Temperature" band is so cool I think it's of general interest. In case folks didn't know Worldview allows us to see in the dark this way. It's obscured by atmospheric conditions like an optical image (only worse -- through a stein of beer, darkly), but the clearings tell thrilling tales of ice dynamics:

https://go.nasa.gov/39PbQGg

a perfect opportunity to remind folk that this Worldview is the perfect medium for looking at previous winters . For a true Megacrack go back to Valentine's day 2018 . The following 2 weeks are compulsive viewing .. b.c.

ps .. please don't all but the shit dumper's jump ship .. there is a long way to go to the melting season .
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on January 08, 2020, 01:06:07 AM
ps .. please don't all but the shit dumper's jump ship .. there is a long way to go to the melting season .
It was never about the videos I posted, was it, you little shit? You just don't want me to post anything at all, isn't it, you miserable little shit?
Seriously?
First, you want Australia to burn in hell, then you blame drunkness and fail to apologize.
When asked to stop derailing the thread then immediately double down and derail it even more.
To add insult to injury, you ask Neven to delete personal attacks (I assume) on you and not long after you are insulting people.
Seriously.... just stop it, you are killing the thread.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on January 08, 2020, 02:31:14 AM
thanks again , Uniquorn . b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 08, 2020, 02:58:07 AM
sdft: lkjjthe oeuthglod '[aw  ;)  :)
asldkfjiov laigal iaoiu :P
apologies, I couldn't be bothered to type on this thread last night
ascat overlaid with unihamburg amsr2-uhh at 80% transparent.
amsr2 100% concentration, normally white, has been set to fully transparent to allow ascat features to show through. Missing or poor quality ascat days have been duplicated with the nearest day causing stutter.
sep21-jan6
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on January 08, 2020, 08:53:39 AM
Uniquorn the animation is superb, but what's with the gibberish? I must be thick headed as I'm not getting it.
Edit: Thank you for the explanation.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 08, 2020, 05:53:02 PM
Great animation!

I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year. For the previous few of years it barely made it over the Nansen Basin continental shelf with incursions up the St Anna Trough. This year it's filling up the sea between FJL and Svalbard.

Is this a worrying indication of less heat transport from a slowing AMOC? Nothing else seems to have changed.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 08, 2020, 06:07:38 PM
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

This is entirely wrong. Hot things emit more heat than cool things. The low latitudes gain heat through insolation. The whole planet is losing heat all the time, more rapidly at the low latitudes as they are warmer. The disparity in insolation heating causes the atmosphere and oceans to operate as heat pumps, transferring heat from the low latitudes to high latitudes and increasing the overall efficiency of heat loss. If you stop the transfer of heat to the poles you reduce the ability of the earth to lose heat.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 08, 2020, 10:53:43 PM
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 08, 2020, 11:11:21 PM
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

This is entirely wrong. Hot things emit more heat than cool things. The low latitudes gain heat through insolation. The whole planet is losing heat all the time, more rapidly at the low latitudes as they are warmer. The disparity in insolation heating causes the atmosphere and oceans to operate as heat pumps, transferring heat from the low latitudes to high latitudes and increasing the overall efficiency of heat loss. If you stop the transfer of heat to the poles you reduce the ability of the earth to lose heat.
Yeah, when I wrote that I was already doubting if it was correct. I remembered something I read here about cooling at the poles. I can't remember what it was.

The problem I see is that without ice, the Arctic ocean soaks up a lot more heat then when it would still be covered with ice. So I'm still thinking that preventing the ice to melt on the pacific side would be a smart thing to do. You don't need to build an entire dam and close up the whole strait. I think you just need to squeeze the flow of water just enough so that you don't lose the ice in summer. This would increase albedo and slow the warming IMHO.

Transport of ocean heat would still continue on the atlantic side and through weather systems, but I think that flooding the arctic ocean with increasingly hot water from the gigantic pacific ocean is a bad idea. It melts the ice faster, and increase the uptake of solar energy. That's why I think that closing up the Bering strait a little may help to slow down global warming... But I'm still reading that other thread. So I'm still updating my brain...

<Take this discussion elsewhere, please, thanks; N.>
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 08, 2020, 11:15:02 PM
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6
There was a strong northern wind blowing over the Barents sea for a long time at the end of this summer, and that cooled it down a lot.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 09, 2020, 07:07:14 PM
I'm still wondering what has changed to increase the ice in the Barent Sea over the last year.
Perhaps the ice is more mobile. osi-saf drift sep21-jan6

Thanks for the animation! Ether more cold input or less heat or a bit of both. It could be that there is much more ice being pushed out over the Barents, that the yearly changes are just noise. We remain avid observers.

If you had to pick one visible symptom of a slowing AMOC in a warming world? For me it would be less heat in the Barents, and more ice, it's far to the North and only the AMOC's heat keeps it ice free.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Steven on January 09, 2020, 10:03:56 PM
There was a strong northern wind blowing over the Barents sea for a long time at the end of this summer, and that cooled it down a lot.

Indeed.  There have been cold north winds in that region for much of the past year.

Average surface wind anomalies during the past 12 months: (source (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Vector+Wind&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=1&dayr1=1&monr2=12&dayr2=31&iyr%5B1%5D=2019&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=1&cint=0.1&lowr=0.6&highr=2.7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=60&xlat2=80&xlon1=0&xlon2=70&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot))

(https://i.imgur.com/9j0iWG2.gif)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2020, 05:28:57 PM
Atlantic Front

Greenland and Barents Seas lost some sea ice area in the last few days. First 2 images

But I don't think it will last somehow. Warm winds into the Norwegian Sea but.... (last image)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 12, 2020, 06:50:57 PM
Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 12, 2020, 06:58:01 PM
Last weeks ice-drift map, 05th to 11th.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 12, 2020, 07:05:40 PM
For some reason, the Norwegian met site stopped working on the 9th. So here is a half a week of Fram export via SAR.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 12, 2020, 11:10:34 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea ice extent growth in @NSIDC data has slowed in recent days as winds have turned more southerly. Extent is just above 2019 and just below the 1981-2020 median. Weather upcoming week will not be favorable for much #seaice extent change. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOFxsXoWoAEM420.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 14, 2020, 09:10:44 AM
https://twitter.com/CinderBDT907/status/1216839830400913410

Quote
Ponds nearshore today. And this is before the increase in insolation that will come at the end of the month when the sun comes up.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam/ …

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOMVXfRWsAAl1fu.jpg)

https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Shorefast #seaice broke off at Utqiaġvik a couple days ago. In mid-January. Tough to work on this ice. #akwx
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: F.Tnioli on January 14, 2020, 02:14:46 PM
Those ponds, together with "Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)" posted by Blumencraft just few posts above, confirm one big suspicion i had for this freezing season: namely, the huge winter mode shift for Arctic and subarctic regions. Which shift is more heat and moisture in the system causing more clouds remaining for much of the winter, which clouds then dramatically slow down winter-time heat loss from both the surface and lower athmosphere. Which slowing further massively extends duration and scale of "thickly clouded" areas - a runaway process.

Obviously, any prolonged periods of massively dwarfed heat-loss process in Arctic and adjucent regions - will have significant impact on following melting season(s), but there is yet one much more serious implication: the "albedo connection" as one may perhaps call it. The warmer things are, the less places are snow-covered by the time insolation starts to be a thing again (and the less snowcover's thickness / brightness is there in places which still retain some snowcover, too). Just like ArcticMelt2 just mentioned: "when the sun comes up", which for sub-arctic regions is already pretty much "now" or "very soon".

Right about now, we have much of the Arctic cloudy (good bye, "polar desert", eh), and even some parts of it - between Iceland and UK/Scandinavia - getting few millimeters of rain. If those cyclones would keep coming same way, then together with seriously positive SST anomalies around Scandinavia and all along US eastern coast - then i wouldn't be surprised to see Atlantic side of the Arctic going blue much much earlier than ever before, later this year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on January 14, 2020, 03:21:29 PM
Those ponds, together with "Last weeks 7-day hindsight means GIF (anomalies)" posted by Blumencraft just few posts above, confirm one big suspicion i had for this freezing season: namely, the huge winter mode shift for Arctic and subarctic regions. Which shift is more heat and moisture in the system causing more clouds remaining for much of the winter, which clouds then dramatically slow down winter-time heat loss from both the surface and lower athmosphere. Which slowing further massively extends duration and scale of "thickly clouded" areas - a runaway process.

Obviously, any prolonged periods of massively dwarfed heat-loss process in Arctic and adjucent regions - will have significant impact on following melting season(s), but there is yet one much more serious implication: the "albedo connection" as one may perhaps call it. The warmer things are, the less places are snow-covered by the time insolation starts to be a thing again (and the less snowcover's thickness / brightness is there in places which still retain some snowcover, too). Just like ArcticMelt2 just mentioned: "when the sun comes up", which for sub-arctic regions is already pretty much "now" or "very soon".

Right about now, we have much of the Arctic cloudy (good bye, "polar desert", eh), and even some parts of it - between Iceland and UK/Scandinavia - getting few millimeters of rain. If those cyclones would keep coming same way, then together with seriously positive SST anomalies around Scandinavia and all along US eastern coast - then i wouldn't be surprised to see Atlantic side of the Arctic going blue much much earlier than ever before, later this year.

very well said/written as always and very much along my line thinking also as usual ;) ;)

as posted here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg243972.html#msg243972

interestingly "the heck" some apperently do not agree but unfortunately i've not seen any
arguments against our way of seeing things.

As to insolation, starting the 24th of January in Utqiagvik/Barrow
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on January 14, 2020, 03:22:13 PM
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 14, 2020, 03:53:40 PM
Average surface wind anomalies during the past 12 months: (source (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Vector+Wind&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=1&dayr1=1&monr2=12&dayr2=31&iyr%5B1%5D=2019&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&skip_vector=1&cint=0.1&lowr=0.6&highr=2.7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=60&xlat2=80&xlon1=0&xlon2=70&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot))
Thanks Steven. Here comparing noaa/esrl sep-dec wind anomaly with jan1 uni-hamburg amsr2, 2013-2020. click to run.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 14, 2020, 08:56:26 PM
The one exception I have with your sharp analysis is that a wetter Arctic results in more snow. We might see a delay in ice melt because so much snow needs to melt first.

While NH snow cover extent is much below average, snow water equivalent is much above average. Where there is snow, it is much deeper than normal.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.100.html#lastPost

If there is precipitation in the Arctic, it is falling as snow.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 14, 2020, 08:57:23 PM
What we know for certain is this will be a riveting melt season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 14, 2020, 10:10:07 PM
The one exception I have with your sharp analysis is that a wetter Arctic results in more snow. We might see a delay in ice melt because so much snow needs to melt first.

While NH snow cover extent is much below average, snow water equivalent is much above average. Where there is snow, it is much deeper than normal.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.100.html#lastPost

If there is precipitation in the Arctic, it is falling as snow.
That snow is a very bad thing for the permafrost. just like the high temperatures in Siberia. I guess we'll be seeing a lot of methane being released this coming summer.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on January 14, 2020, 11:21:02 PM
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 15, 2020, 12:55:32 AM
It was quite a spectacular lift off from Barrow/Utqiagvik.

Here is sketch of the local currents and the effects they have on the ice. Sounds like the recent event was caused by the "Atchagnaq".

I agree with comments before that much of the ice around is thin (late formed). There is old ice to the north of Point Barrow.

I think what made this one so dramatic is that it stripped away practically all the shorefast ice at Utqiagvik and also a considerable amount of shorefast broke away along the north coast east of Point Barrow. (as per BL's excellent video).

This evening the ice is back.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on January 15, 2020, 02:59:08 AM
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Silly question.
It looks like there is less cloudiness in the arctic region.
But does that translate to less precipitation?

In my head, you might have less cloud cover in the sky, but it is possible for the clouds to carry more moisture and drop it in larger and fast amounts.

Is it possible that this is the situation in the artic?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Wildcatter on January 15, 2020, 04:13:56 AM
Hi all,

As an amateur observer, I've paid quite close attention to the Arctic this season, so maybe others can elaborate on some things i've noticed.

1) Cyclones in the North Atlantic. For the last 2-3 weeks, deep developing cyclones have been a constant. A couple have reached 940mbar, real monsters. Pulling right down the Greenland current, and undoubtedly affecting Arctic inflow with Atlantic water. Sidenote: I have to imagine these winds and 15m waves hitting Greenland, probably has some affect on underwater melting via mixing?
 
https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/north-atlantic-onroll-intense-extra-tropical-cyclones-mk/ (https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/north-atlantic-onroll-intense-extra-tropical-cyclones-mk/)

2) Incoming collapse of the Beaufort High. The typical anti-cyclonic gyre wind and pressure is getting increasingly encroached by cyclonic low-pressure. I don't know enough about this, but the research i've seen has insinuated the effect on ice formation in the Pacific ice, Beaufort/Chukchi/ESS, but can also affect the CAA.

Zack Labe actually had a picture in the melting season, that showed the significant meridional anomaly right up the Bering for the year (pic link right below). I'm guessing it was the high pressures from the Pacific contrasting with the Aleutian lows. I haven't watched enough years for precedent data, but there's also been some cyclone formation closer to the land masses on the Pacific this winter season. That can advect some real warmth.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB5d4YuU4AAgalW.jpg (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EB5d4YuU4AAgalW.jpg)

And just my opinion, but baroclinity and cyclone formation + the low pressure patterns they arise from (and contrasting high pressures) with baroclinity differences seem like they may be understated in the grand scheme of things. We've seen the effect in late summer, the effect it can have over the Barents, and the water flow + advection they can perform, which could serve to only exacerbate the situation. Long term, anyway.

The US has also been getting hit by severe weather, and more coming the next 5-7 days. So if you're interested in snow extent, snow depth, etc, may want to check on that the next week. There was also a minor chance of a vortex disruption, but who knows. The last few have occurred around early February for US weather, I believe.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/15-day-outlook-ridge-cold-usa-europe-fa/ (https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/15-day-outlook-ridge-cold-usa-europe-fa/)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 15, 2020, 09:56:21 AM
Interesting.

What are the best ways to see cloudiness in the arctic?

https://climatereanalyzer.org/reanalysis/monthly_tseries/

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

Very interesting. Cloud cover is not everything of course, and in the Arctic, low-lying fog is quite common and probably not counted as cloud. I wonder if anybody is qualified to claim anything about changes in fog prevalence in the Arctic?

Also it'd be interesting to see if humidity has changed (or rather, the total amount of water vapor - which I presume has increased).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on January 15, 2020, 08:01:11 PM

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

That looks to be a yearly tally. What about seasonally?

I used to live in a city in BC which is ranked as one of the sunniest in Canada. But it's simultaneously one of the cloudiest - in the winter.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on January 15, 2020, 10:18:13 PM

Here is a plot showing the opposite of what is claimed about increasing cloudiness.

That looks to be a yearly tally. What about seasonally?

I used to live in a city in BC which is ranked as one of the sunniest in Canada. But it's simultaneously one of the cloudiest - in the winter.

Here is the cloud cover for October - April.
You can select any period you want at the Reanalyzer.

Same impression, cloudiness is down.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on January 15, 2020, 10:22:21 PM

Very interesting. Cloud cover is not everything of course, and in the Arctic, low-lying fog is quite common and probably not counted as cloud. I wonder if anybody is qualified to claim anything about changes in fog prevalence in the Arctic?

Also it'd be interesting to see if humidity has changed (or rather, the total amount of water vapor - which I presume has increased).

Hi binntho,
here are some plots from the Reanalyzer, it's snow depth, TPW and precipitation. All year.
Snow depth is a bit down, TPW is a bit up.

If you want some specific month or range of months, you can select that.
I checked TPW for October - April also, and it's significantly up, see last attachment. So maybe gives some input to the issue of 'fogginess'.

You can also respecify what area you want to include. Their 'Arctic' goes all the way down to 60 N, but you can choose another latitude as you like.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 16, 2020, 06:23:54 AM
Thanks Hefaistos. Total precipitable water has been going up (as I expected), while snow water equivalent seems to be mostly stable, perhaps decreasing slightly.

Does that indicate more fogginess? Ground-hugging fog probably has a big effect on heat transfer and insolation. But I'm not sure how big, and lacking direct evidence, I guess one can't say anything about eventual changes in fogginess either.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 16, 2020, 07:07:41 AM
January 3-15.

2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg186355.html#msg186355).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 16, 2020, 09:50:24 PM
Thanks for the regular aminations Aluminium. Focusing on the Atlantic side, a number of interesting transitory features stand out today.
The low concentration ice over the Yermak Plateau, north of Svalbard, detailed on the rammb thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2649.msg244558.html#msg244558) by Blumenkraft.
Low concentration ice close to the edge of the Nansen Basin as far as FJL.
More sea ice to the south west of Svalbard.
Transitory ice edge correlations with bathy in the Barents
gmrt bathymetry map here (https://www.gmrt.org/GMRTMapTool/np/)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 17, 2020, 11:44:32 AM
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 17, 2020, 03:17:28 PM
I was reading this last week, seems pretty relevant

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-34450-3

Very relevant. Could you post that here too?

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2876.100.html#lastPost
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 17, 2020, 11:43:20 PM
GISS December 2019 land-ocean temperature anomalies
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 19, 2020, 06:09:11 PM
Moah data! \o/

Temperature anomalies 7-day hindsight mean.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 19, 2020, 06:09:45 PM
Fram export via SAR
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 19, 2020, 06:10:29 PM
And ice-drift!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 19, 2020, 07:03:03 PM
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOqSdbiU8AARHCK?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 20, 2020, 12:29:46 AM
GISS December 2019 land-ocean temperature anomalies
I'm wondering if the fires of this summer and the heat of this winter in Siberia could be related to each other. The CO2 from those fires would have gone around the globe already, right? So could there be some other effect? Like maybe darker soil from the fires that soaked up more heat? Or maybe the peat fires? Just wondering.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on January 20, 2020, 01:34:04 PM
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOqSdbiU8AARHCK?format=jpg&name=small)

Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 20, 2020, 04:23:18 PM
Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..
When sea ice forms, salt is released. Does the formation of more sea ice in the Bering sea increase the salinity of the water that is flowing through the Bering strait in winter?

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10872-017-0453-x
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on January 20, 2020, 05:38:59 PM
https://twitter.com/zlabe

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent fell by more than 20% in the past week and as of January 18th was at 67% of the 1981-2010 average. Lack of ice is especially notable off the Chukotka coast. Quite likely to see expansion of the extent upcoming week. #akwx #Arctic
@Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EOqSdbiU8AARHCK?format=jpg&name=small)

Given the conditions of the Bering in early 2012, extensive cover would just seem like a bad omen.

Its probably the one place id be genuinely concerned if extent was high, even though that's just superstition and not backed by any evidence..

Extent was high in 2013 also and sea ice by September was much higher than 2012. Although 2012 dropped to record lows, the high sea ice extent in the Bering may of helped the Chuckchi ice to drop slowly, of course the condition of that ice and the ice at higher latitudes was poor but imo, it had an impact of slowing the retreat down in the Chuckchi Sea during the Summer.

Conclusion would be ice extent in the Bering is not the be all and end all inn terms of the numbers come September but I much rather have an extensive sea ice in the Bering to slow down the warmth of the Pacific heading into the basin.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 21, 2020, 12:23:50 AM
Cool tool. I don't think I saw this here before.

Bering Sea: Salinity Climatological Fields

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/PACIFIC2009/showclimatmap.pl?MapType=bs
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: icefree on January 23, 2020, 04:04:35 AM
I'm new and not up to speed on all the intricacies of the Arctic melting and refreezing but wouldn't the salinity concentrations and the dilution of the Arctic seas from the vast amounts of freshwater entering the Arctic from melting glaciers (especially Greenland) cause a significant increase in ice extent since the less saline water freezes more easily (higher temperature) than the albeit thinner and more prone to melting the next melt season?

Wouldn't the less saline fresh melt water tend to float above the higher salinity water which is denser and sinks lower and contribute to larger extent areas following strong melt seasons?

Sort of like a two steps forward and then one step back kind of progression?

Wouldn't that explain this years unusual refreeze as well as 2012?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 23, 2020, 06:49:25 AM
I'm new and not up to speed on all the intricacies of the Arctic melting and refreezing but wouldn't the salinity concentrations and the dilution of the Arctic seas from the vast amounts of freshwater entering the Arctic from melting glaciers (especially Greenland) cause a significant increase in ice extent since the less saline water freezes more easily (higher temperature) than the albeit thinner and more prone to melting the next melt season?

Well as for the melting Greenland glaciers, along the east coast, the coastal currents would push any meltwaters southwards, then north into Baffin bay where any meltwaters from the Western coast would be added to it and then make it's way west and south again and into the Atlantic. Since this happens in summer, any meltwaters from Greenland would long have disappeared from Arctic waters before areas like northern Baffin start to refreeze (late October / early November)

I'd guess that any glacial meltwater from other sources reaching the Arctic Ocean itself would be hugely dwarfed by the fresh-water rivers that drain into it.

So no - I wouldn't expect glacial meltwaters to have any noticeable effect on ice extent by itself.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2020, 01:44:28 PM
Environment Canada says a very high chance of below average temperatures from 27 Jan to Feb 24 in the far north of Canada including the CAA, Baffin Bay and the blob south of Greenland.

Adds to the prospects of the impressive gains in sea ice extent and area in recent weeks continuing. (And to increases in sea ice thickness?)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Feeltheburn on January 25, 2020, 07:12:28 AM
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature and lowest relative humidity (e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Fractious on January 25, 2020, 07:17:58 AM
This is great news
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on January 25, 2020, 11:38:12 AM
January 13-24.

2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg187137.html#msg187137).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on January 25, 2020, 06:08:22 PM
Aren't the poles the only places where the planet can lose its heat? I'm thinking that if there would be more ice, that the Arctic would be colder and able to release more heat into space, overall cooling the planet, and giving us more time before the feedback loops kick in and the climate runs out of our control.

The Arctic is heating up faster than any other place on earth, so cooling it down seems logical to me. And I don't think this would heat up the rest of the planet more.

My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature and lowest relative humidity (e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

If the poles were the only places to lose heat then nights wouldn't be cooler than days anywhere except the poles. All the surface of Earth is losing heat all the time, more rapidly where the Earth is warmer.

To illustrate FTBs point: From Wikipedia - on diurnal temperature ranges:

...diurnal temperature variations typically range from 10 or fewer degrees in humid, tropical areas, to 40-50 degrees in higher-elevation, arid to semi-arid areas, such as parts of the U.S. Western states' Intermountain Plateau areas...

Illustrating how daytime heating from insolation is lost to space, and how humidity (water vapor acting as a GHG) slows down that heat loss.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 25, 2020, 06:42:41 PM
An interesting new paper concerning the Arctic surface energy balance from the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Utah:

Midwinter Arctic leads form and dissipate low clouds (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-14074-5)

Also here's an introductory overview:

https://phys.org/news/2020-01-arctic-sea-ice-clouds.html

Quote
In the wintertime Arctic, cracks in the ice called "leads" expose the warm ocean directly to the cold air, with some leads only a few meters wide and some kilometers wide. They play a critical role in the Arctic surface energy balance. If we want to know how much the ice is going to grow in winter, we need to understand the impacts of leads.

The extreme contrast in temperature between the warm ocean and the cold air creates a flow of heat and moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere. This flow provides a lead with its own weather system which creates low-level clouds. The prevailing view has been that more leads are associated with more low-level clouds during winter. But University of Utah atmospheric scientists noticed something strange in their study of these leads: when lead occurrence was greater, there were fewer, not more clouds.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 25, 2020, 06:46:01 PM
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 25, 2020, 07:06:32 PM
Nice to see you around, Jim! :)

Likewise BK!

Whilst I'm here perhaps I might repost this A-Team animation from the MOSAiC thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg245823.html#msg245823)?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2906.0;attach=141814;image)

Quote
The overall motion of the icepack over the last three weeks is better described as a 'Siberian Slam' against the CAA than TransPolar Drift. Note the boundary between FYI and MYI remains quite distinct and easy to track.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 26, 2020, 08:03:03 AM
Last week in temperature hindsight:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on January 26, 2020, 11:18:29 AM
The snow cover extent still well below average while the sun comes back.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 26, 2020, 01:46:20 PM
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, atlantic side, dec1-jan25
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on January 26, 2020, 06:09:17 PM
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 27, 2020, 12:19:52 AM
Ice around the Lena delta looking more fragile compared to the last two years.
https://go.nasa.gov/3aKTfvC 2018-2020   click to run
20180128 was clearer
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on January 27, 2020, 03:29:19 AM
The strongly positive arctic oscillation is likely responsible for both the diminished northern hemisphere snow cover and enhanced arctic sea ice.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 27, 2020, 12:05:54 PM
Sunday to Sunday ice drift map.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 27, 2020, 12:12:55 PM
Sunday to Sunday Fram export via SAR.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 27, 2020, 01:12:11 PM
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the  first link (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance/page4.php) gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on January 27, 2020, 01:21:04 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1221476994849873921

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent from NSIDC is slowly increasing, but remains below the long term average & last year. But extent isn't everything. Sustained cold weather near the Alaska coast since mid-Dec helping to thicken and stabilize nearshore ice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPOO1e-U0AA_7Ug?format=jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 27, 2020, 02:59:29 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/1221476994849873921

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent from NSIDC is slowly increasing, but remains below the long term average & last year. But extent isn't everything. Sustained cold weather near the Alaska coast since mid-Dec helping to thicken and stabilize nearshore ice. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

Which, of course, will all melt out this season and, more than likely, early.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on January 27, 2020, 05:58:48 PM
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the  first link (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance/page4.php) gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 27, 2020, 08:12:00 PM
Sunday to Sunday ice drift map.
Thanks Blumenkraft.  Can you also post the drift anomaly?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on January 27, 2020, 08:16:42 PM
Where would i get that, Glen?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 27, 2020, 09:45:53 PM
Bering Sea looking beautiful at the moment. Extent racing away to the sunlit uplands :)
https://go.nasa.gov/3aPDKSW  jan22-26, click to run
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 27, 2020, 09:47:40 PM
At the start of the year the SSTs over the West Spitzbergen Current were relatively low. Lowest I can recall for some time.

Comparison between the Norwegian Met Ice Service chart on 6th and 24th January shows that the warmer SSTs (over 4 C) have surged northwards since then.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 27, 2020, 09:59:46 PM
Bering Sea looking beautiful at the moment. Extent racing away to the sunlit uplands :)


Ice edge on 26th was about 25 km away from St. Matthew Island.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on January 27, 2020, 11:08:35 PM
My guess is that, based on my understanding of thermodynamics, more heat is lost in areas with combinations of highest temperature difference and lowest relative humidity (e.g. Arctic regions, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given year). In such areas there is the greatest differential between the heat source (earth) and heat sink (outer space), coupled with the lowest combination of greenhouse gases (water being by far the most important).

So you quote Feeltheburn almost verbatim, only changing the paranthesis:

(e.g. deserts, which typically have the highest spread between high and low temperatures on any given day). 

The point being? But since you seem to dispute Feeltheburn's post (albeit in a rather underhand way), I was tempted to do a Google search on "where does earth lose most heat" and the  first link (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/EnergyBalance/page4.php) gave me this underlying image, from Nasa.

Seems that Feeltheburn's understanding was spot on, at least for the month of September 2008. And I'd be very much surprised if the Arctic (or the Antarctic for that sake) would show enough heat loss in their respective summers to trump the tropics or the mid-latitude desert bands on an annual basis.
It's frustrating that I can't remember exactly what it was all about. Could it be that it was something that in winter the arctic loses a lot of heat because of a thinner atmosphere?

The polar vortex had something to do with it also I think.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 28, 2020, 01:33:12 AM
In the absence of the mid January PIOMAS update I'm being moaned at over at "Climate Etc.".

Hence please feel free to compare and contrast:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 28, 2020, 01:54:24 AM
Jim -
     Both Thickness and Extent seem to be much less in 2020 than 2019 in those images.  But the December PIOMAS Volume data show Dec 31 2019 only about 3% below Dec 31 2018.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997)

 The dramatic difference in Thickness and Extent in those maps look like a lot more than a 3% Volume decline. 

    Or is the January PIOMAS going to deliver a bombshell?  But that also seems unlikely given robust Extent gains in recent  weeks.  And there has only been 19 days between Dec 31, 2019 and the Jan. 19, 2020 graph. 

   CryoSat vs. PIOMAS difference doesn't explain it either, since both images are CryoSat.  Something is not lining up.   The only explanation I can think of is a re-calibration of CryoSat.  But I don't have any info pointing to that. 

   Bottom line:  the 2019 to 2020 difference in those maps is too huge to believe.  If it is real then it looks the Arctic is going to get blitzed in the 2020 melt season.

    Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 28, 2020, 02:21:47 AM
Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?

Well, since I grabbed the 2019 data earlier today rather than a year ago that map is based on a "reanalysis", whereas the 2020 one is based on "operational" data. That may have something to do with it?

I'll have to do a lot more digging to confirm that, or otherwise. However that will have to wait for another day, since it's now well past my normal bedtime (UTC)!

Should anyone else be interested in investigating the data are at:

ftp://ftpsrv2.awi.de/sea_ice/product/cryosat2_smos/v202/nh/ (ftp://ftpsrv2.awi.de/sea_ice/product/cryosat2_smos/v202/nh/)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 28, 2020, 09:05:43 AM
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on January 28, 2020, 10:50:16 AM
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
Im not good at rhetoric, I leave that to you.
deserts have the same albedo in daytime than 40 years ago, Arctic does not, it absorbs much more heat in its daytime (summer). Deserts lose similar heat during night than they used to 40 years ago. Arctic night (Winter) is very complex, some winters it acts as an alleviation of the record heat accumulated in summer; some recent winters, however, the venting has been blocked by excess humidity, leading to a poor ice recovery in winter.
FTB gives a good example. But you want to convince who of what? Of course the Arctic radiative heat cycle is more important for climate, at least as a manifestation of its change but also cause it feeds back in atmospheric and oceanic changes.
Just look at Fall temperatures in Alaska for the last 40 years and STFU.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 28, 2020, 11:20:43 AM
Yas, yas. Ftb gave an eg. of daily cycle of extreme radiative heat gain/loss, I thought the Arctic qualifies for the same in an annual cycle. Probably variation of this annual cycle is more impactful over the planetary weather/climate though than daily cycle on desertic areas.
Well you thought wrong, the annual arctic cycle is not "more impactful" and if you think otherwise, plese substantiate.
Im not good at rhetoric, I leave that to you.
deserts have the same albedo in daytime than 40 years ago, Arctic does not, it absorbs much more heat in its daytime (summer). Deserts lose similar heat during night than they used to 40 years ago. Arctic night (Winter) is very complex, some winters it acts as an alleviation of the record heat accumulated in summer; some recent winters, however, the venting has been blocked by excess humidity, leading to a poor ice recovery in winter.
FTB gives a good example. But you want to convince who of what? Of course the Arctic radiative heat cycle is more important for climate, at least as a manifestation of its change but also cause it feeds back in atmospheric and oceanic changes.
Just look at Fall temperatures in Alaska for the last 40 years and STFU.
Gandul, we are getting somewhat off-topic here.

I am not trying to convince anybody of anything. But I read Feeltheburn's original posting and had nothing to add, I thought it sounded very sensible.

You did not, fair enough, but instead of saying so in your own words, you took Feeltheburn's words and posted as your own, but with an important change. So you used a dishonest method to imply disagreement, rather than saying so directly, posting no evidence of your own and giving no arguments for your position.

Your above posting is disjointed, without any real substance, illogical as well as rude. So let's stop this silly off-topic argument, and I hope that when next I see a posting from you, it will be both polite and well considered.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on January 28, 2020, 11:34:02 AM
Jim -
     Both Thickness and Extent seem to be much less in 2020 than 2019 in those images.  But the December PIOMAS Volume data show Dec 31 2019 only about 3% below Dec 31 2018.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg242997.html#msg242997)

 The dramatic difference in Thickness and Extent in those maps look like a lot more than a 3% Volume decline. 

    Or is the January PIOMAS going to deliver a bombshell?  But that also seems unlikely given robust Extent gains in recent  weeks.  And there has only been 19 days between Dec 31, 2019 and the Jan. 19, 2020 graph. 

   CryoSat vs. PIOMAS difference doesn't explain it either, since both images are CryoSat.  Something is not lining up.   The only explanation I can think of is a re-calibration of CryoSat.  But I don't have any info pointing to that. 

   Bottom line:  the 2019 to 2020 difference in those maps is too huge to believe.  If it is real then it looks the Arctic is going to get blitzed in the 2020 melt season.

    Or am I missing/misinterpreting something?
The extra volume this year is in the Barents (and the Kara), as can be seen in Jim's image based on Cryosat/SMOS, as well as in Wipneus' diff map based on PIOMAS. The missing volume this year is next to the CAA, again seen both in Cryosat/SMOS data and in PIOMAS. These two sources are very different (one is mostly measured, one is mostly modeled), but are in general agreement. I do not expect a January bombshell, but the melting season could become interesting should there be an early meltout of the Barents.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 28, 2020, 11:46:16 AM
The extra volume this year is in the Barents (and the Kara)

I've done my due diligence this morning (UTC), and there's still a total absence of any ice >= 4m thick to be seen on the most recent CS2/SMOS reanalysis. Chapter and verse over at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/

including this (hopefully?) explanatory video:

https://youtu.be/p1s5_AZfUG0

Quote
Not unexpectedly that meant that ice in the northern Barents Sea was slow to melt out in the summer of 2019, whilst after a fast start the melt in the Beaufort Sea suffered a “brief hiatus” in June before ultimately melting out almost completely.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on January 28, 2020, 01:32:24 PM
"I do not expect a January bombshell, but the melting season could become interesting should there be an early meltout of the Barents."

Absolutely right. With weakness almost everywhere save the Barents, an early meltout there would leave the whole Arctic very vulnerable...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on January 28, 2020, 01:35:20 PM
The sea of Okhotsk doesn't feature much in this thread but affects extent at this time of year. Here is a comparison using uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh from 2013-2020, jan27
added Bering Sea comparison
combined them
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 28, 2020, 05:37:41 PM
I've done my due diligence this morning (UTC), and there's still a total absence of any ice >= 4m thick to be seen on the most recent CS2/SMOS reanalysis. Chapter and verse over at:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/

Thanks Jim.  The  Jan 11, 2020 vs Jan 11, 2019 contrast in the Great White Con images is much less dramatic than the Jan 19, 2020 vs 2019 images posted upthread.  Ditto, the PIOMAS difference maps posted by Oren are not as dramatic either.  I suspect there is an issue with color scaling in the Jan 19, 2020 CryoSat image upthread.  So I consider that issue resolved or at least unimportant.

   What is important is the lack of >4m thick ice and overall thinner and less consistent thickness shown in your January 2020 Great White Con maps.  Not only is the thickest ice gone, but the ASI as whole looks weaker and more variable.  In particular, the Atlantic side from the North Pole down to Greenland and Fram Starit looks more vulnerable than same dates in 2019 and 2018.

   The 2020 melt season seems to have potential for dramatic acceleration relative to the long term trend.  In simpler words: it looks like it could be on the edge of falling apart by September 2020.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on January 28, 2020, 08:27:21 PM
Possibly.  However, the sea ice extent this year is greater than 8 of the past 10 years.  The only two years with greater extent were 2013 & 14, which also had the highest minima over the past decade.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 28, 2020, 09:37:55 PM
However, the sea ice extent this year is greater than 8 of the past 10 years.

So sea ice thickness is irrelevant to your potential prognostications? Here's another sea ice motion video for you:

https://youtu.be/E-6uPrJJl6Y

Guess what happened next?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on January 28, 2020, 10:09:23 PM
It is amazing to see. Especially if you remember what the age/thickness charts looked like in the early noughties.

It would have been nice to have a month year counter pasted over some continent.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 28, 2020, 10:15:57 PM
It would have been nice to have a month year counter pasted over some continent.

Isn't the year/week counter at the bottom right sufficient?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 28, 2020, 10:22:40 PM
Excellent global summary posted by Bob Henson yesterday:

"from January 1 to 27, the AO has averaged above +2.0. According to NOAA, only four Januarys since 1950 have seen a positive AO this strong, including 1993 (+3.495), 1989 (+3.106), 1957 (+2.062), and 2007 (+2.034). Even if the AO weakens in the next few days, this month could end up with the third highest January value in 71 years of recordkeeping."

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Polar-Vortex-Keeps-Cold-Bottled-How-Long-Will-It-Last?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on January 28, 2020, 10:48:39 PM
However, the sea ice extent this year is greater than 8 of the past 10 years.

So sea ice thickness is irrelevant to your potential prognostications?

No.  Just less relevant.  Neither yields a perfect correlation, but extent does better.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 28, 2020, 11:55:55 PM
No.  Just less relevant.  Neither yields a perfect correlation, but extent does better.
Correlation of what with what?
Volume is the bottom line measure of how much ice there is. 
Thickness indicates a key component of the Volume calculation (Thickness x Extent or Thickness x Area).
  Also, it provides qualitative information about the condition of that ice.  Older thicker ice is more resistant to melt than younger, thinner ice.

Extent and Area are more directly related to the albedo impact of ASI decline.

So each measure has value for addressing different issues / answering different questions.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 29, 2020, 12:12:04 AM
    Is there an index that relates ice thickness to melt resistance?
    It would be interesting to see a calculation of the melt resistance for the total ASI melt resistance for standardized month/day dates compared across years.
    That might be a better indicator than even Volume for how much change has occurred to the ASI.  For example -- A million km3 of ice in 2020 might be more vulnerable to melt (require less melting energy) than a million km3 of ASI in 2010.

    In addition to thickness, other variables like continuity, average floe size and variability, and salinity could go into it.  That all seems intractably difficult, esp. since values of those characteristics for the Arctic ice pack are probably not available. But a measure of the average thickness for the ASI ice pack combined with some reasonably accurate method to account for the relative melt resistance for sea ice of different thicknesses could be enlightening.  (Though an Arctic wide melt resistance value would need to account for volume within each thickness category separately, so average ASI thickness would not suffice).

    But first things first.  Is there some formula for translating the thickness of a single chunk of ASI ice into a relative or absolute melt resistance value?   I postulated such a thing by reversing the Thorndike ice growth rate curve for different ice thicknesses a few months ago and posted it on ASIF, but was informed by ASIF contributors who actually know about these things that a simple reversal of the energy in/out equation was not valid.  Thorndike defined an ice growth vs. thickness curve, so it seems like Thorndike or somebody must have done the opposite, define a ice melt vs. thickness curve (for a fixed melting energy input).  That would give us another handle for understanding the significance of the loss of thickest oldest ice, and the overall decline in average ASI thickness.
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 29, 2020, 01:52:41 AM
Possibly.  However, the sea ice extent this year is greater than 8 of the past 10 years.  The only two years with greater extent were 2013 & 14, which also had the highest minima over the past decade.

Looking at extent figures now (Jan 27th) is not much guarantee of a high minimum come September.

Example 1 : 2007 . The joint second lowest min on record. Yet extent on Jan 27th 2007 was higher than it is currently in 2020. A lot can happen.

Example 2 : 2012. The lowest year of all. Jaxa extent on Jan 27th 2012 was only 115 k less than extent is currently

Re the ice thickness  charts, I am not that confident in what they show. Some are better than others.

Last year over on the Nares Strait thread, we were saying that the ice north of Greenland in the Lincoln Sea must be thin as it kept fragmenting and there was no arch in the strait. Yet the 2019 chart above appears to show thicker ice above Greenland than this year.

Instead last December the arch did form. Was the ice than thicker this winter contrary to what the charts indicate.

Or is arch formation more to do with tides, currents and surface winds coming together at the right time rather than how thick the ice is ?   
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on January 29, 2020, 02:43:31 AM
I think some are forgetting volume in January 2019 will probably be higher than 2020 because the volume during the latter parts of 2018 increased quite steady. It was during February 2019 the volume flatlined due to frequent warmth coming in from the Bering Sea and the spring of 2019 probably was not the best for sea ice as open water was observed very early in the Beaufort sea.

What we can say, the ice is probably not as vulnable as it was in 2017 and its too early to say what the melt season may or may not produce.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Thomas Barlow on January 29, 2020, 04:35:20 AM
Well, that's new. Haven't seen anything like this for a while.
According to this, sea-ice extent has about 10 lower years for this time of year. Even 2005 and 2006 are lower.
Still among the lowest group on record, so not celebrating too much.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on January 29, 2020, 08:12:54 AM
    Is there an index that relates ice thickness to melt resistance?
    It would be interesting to see a calculation of the melt resistance for the total ASI melt resistance for standardized month/day dates compared across years.
    That might be a better indicator than even Volume for how much change has occurred to the ASI.  For example -- A million km3 of ice in 2020 might be more vulnerable to melt (require less melting energy) than a million km3 of ASI in 2010.
Of course, it is not that it requires less energy to melt, but it enables faster heat transfer. Thinner ice permits direct solar radiation to reach water beneath ice. Thin ice also breaks down more easily into smaller chunks, eventually melting out by top, bottom, lateral melting and wave washing. It is also increasingly first year ice, which is easier to melt than multi year ice.
This reduction of melt resistance is another feedback contributing to the loss of Arctic ice.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 29, 2020, 10:00:48 AM
Last year over on the Nares Strait thread, we were saying that the ice north of Greenland in the Lincoln Sea must be thin as it kept fragmenting and there was no arch in the strait. Yet the 2019 chart above appears to show thicker ice above Greenland than this year.

And what happened to the "thicker ice above Greenland" of which you speak after mid January 2019? According to the theory which is mine (http://greatwhitecon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/):

Quote
Over the winter of 2018/19 ASCAT revealed that there was a relentless movement of multi-year ice towards both the North Atlantic and the Beaufort Sea. Perhaps a significant amount of the multi-year ice that survived the winter of 2018/19 has now simply melted away in warm water, to be replaced by much less robust first year ice in the area between the North Pole and the Siberian coast?

I'll allow that some melted out in Baffin Bay as well.

RIP Terry Jones:

https://youtu.be/Xs7r5xfucPs

John & Eric are still with us!


Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 29, 2020, 10:26:15 AM
Is there some formula for translating the thickness of a single chunk of ASI ice into a relative or absolute melt resistance value?

Not that I'm aware of. Melting is a much messier process than freezing.

A "Great Arctic Cyclone" in August seems to have a significant effect on Arctic sea ice melt for example!

https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/arctic-summer-storm-open-thread.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on January 29, 2020, 06:05:42 PM
Possibly.  However, the sea ice extent this year is greater than 8 of the past 10 years.  The only two years with greater extent were 2013 & 14, which also had the highest minima over the past decade.

Looking at extent figures now (Jan 27th) is not much guarantee of a high minimum come September.

Example 1 : 2007 . The joint second lowest min on record. Yet extent on Jan 27th 2007 was higher than it is currently in 2020. A lot can happen.

Example 2 : 2012. The lowest year of all. Jaxa extent on Jan 27th 2012 was only 115 k less than extent is currently

Re the ice thickness  charts, I am not that confident in what they show. Some are better than others.

Last year over on the Nares Strait thread, we were saying that the ice north of Greenland in the Lincoln Sea must be thin as it kept fragmenting and there was no arch in the strait. Yet the 2019 chart above appears to show thicker ice above Greenland than this year.

Instead last December the arch did form. Was the ice than thicker this winter contrary to what the charts indicate.

Or is arch formation more to do with tides, currents and surface winds coming together at the right time rather than how thick the ice is ?   

Actually, 2012 is the only real anomaly.  The average January extent in 2016 and 2019 were not much lower than 2007, and had similar minima.  The correlation is not great, but it is better than others.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 30, 2020, 08:48:24 PM
XY Plot of NSIDC Average January extent versus the following September's min from year 2006 onwards.

TBH I think it is a bit of a meaningless plot because it takes no account of ice thickness and there are so many other factors that can affect ice between January and September.

Over this time period a january average of circa 13.7 was followed by a range of Sept Mins of anywhere between 3.39 and 5.05 million km2 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on January 30, 2020, 09:55:18 PM
DUUDDD+(2012)UD-DDUED

Down up or equal.

Ds win.

I think some year those factors that saved the ice before might align the wrong way.

Also see the last dance of thick ice ase posted above by Jim Hunt.

A little more then a month and then we are back to the melting season.  :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 30, 2020, 10:35:00 PM
XY Plot of NSIDC Average January extent versus the following September's min from year 2006 onwards.
TBH I think it is a bit of a meaningless plot

True that!  You'd be hard pressed to come up with a better example of random noise vs. a causal correlation.  Also, X drives Y so the graph should have January Extent on the X axis and following Sept. min. on the Y axis.

Nothing to see here folks, keep moving...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: dnem on January 30, 2020, 10:49:17 PM
That hardly makes it meaningless!  It says that January extent is NOT predictive of September extent.  That's useful, no?

Is this a reasonable summary?: Strong positive AO and orderly Polar Vortex have made for "CAWCy" weather this winter. The cold arctic/warm continents has led to decent sea ice extent gains but also low snowfall across much of the Northern hemisphere.  This potentially sets the stage for an early warmup and early melt as the sun returns to the north.

I would also add that because of background warming, now, when we get a fairly "normal" winter without large breakdowns of the PV, it is now too warm to get normal snows across most of the NH.  Additionally, even with polar air bottled up at the pole it's not really THAT cold and extent gains are not extreme.

Looks like BBR might need to wait another year for his ice age.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 30, 2020, 11:22:25 PM
Agreed, I was conflating "statistical insignificance" with meaningless.  Yes, there is value in knowing that something doesn't work. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on January 31, 2020, 12:07:48 AM
Agreed, I was conflating "statistical insignificance" with meaningless.  Yes, there is value in knowing that something doesn't work.

Yes same here. That was my intention.

There should be no bravado about the current state of the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on January 31, 2020, 02:45:19 PM
XY Plot of NSIDC Average January extent versus the following September's min from year 2006 onwards.

TBH I think it is a bit of a meaningless plot because it takes no account of ice thickness and there are so many other factors that can affect ice between January and September.

Over this time period a january average of circa 13.7 was followed by a range of Sept Mins of anywhere between 3.39 and 5.05 million km2

Ah yes, a classic example of cherry-picking the data to arrive at your preconceived conclusion.  The question one must ask is why did you choose 2006 as a starting point?  Simple, it shows the lowest correlation.  Added just five previous years of data shows a much stronger correlation.  Ten shows even more.  Ironically,  dropped the first two years of data from your plot shows a better correlation.  Amazing how so many posters were hoodwinked by your graph!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on January 31, 2020, 03:02:51 PM
Ah yes, a classic example of cherry-picking the data ...

Here's a graph covering the years 1979-1919 showing March average on Y axis vs. September average on X axis, from NSIDC.

The correlation is very strong but equally meaningless. Both winter max and summer min have trended downwards with time, and the plot says absolutely nothing more than Niall's graph further up.

I.e. it is not possible to predict with any certainty what the summer mininum will be based on the winter maximum that year.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 31, 2020, 09:30:11 PM
binntho
  To resolve the earlier discussion, can you graph January Extent on X axis vs. September Extent on Y axis for 1979-2019?  Even better if you show not just the slope equation but the R2, F and df (all included in the output table if you are using Excel).  That would let us estimate statistical significance. 

    The March-Sept correlation is middling, but the original question was about predicting Sept. Extent from prior January, which is a lot more tenuous.  And of course, Extent is only part of the story.  (I think the main issue is ASIF folks with cabin-fever looking for something to argue about while waiting for the 2020 melt season).

     I may have over-reacted to the weak looking ice thickness map for Jan. 2020 vs. 2019 and 2018 as shown on Jim Hunt's Great White Con post. 
http://greatwhitecon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/ (http://greatwhitecon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/)
The early January 2020 ice thickness map shown there may be simply be showing that the 2019-2020 freeze season got off to a late start.  A lot could change before March-April. 

     Any single year is short term noise around what really matters - the long term trend for less Arctic sea ice.  But 2020 is a particularly interesting year to watch. 

    By the long term volume trend, 2020 has about a 50:50 chance of going below the 2012 record low.  The long term trendline for Extent gives a 2020 estimate that is still roughly 20% above the 2012 record low.  The Great Arctic Cyclone caused a greater loss to Extent than it did to Volume. 

     As both values diminish, the Extent trend slope has to bend down faster to catch up to Volume - because at the end zero Volume dictates zero Extent.  The fact that thinner ice melts faster contributes to that.  An Extent maximum of 14.5 km2 in March 2020 will be more vulnerable to melt than the same Extent in earlier years when average thickness was thicker.  However, I don't think that effect has really taken hold yet, given that the March vs. September Extent correlation appears to still fit a straight line, with no suggestion of an increasing curve in the correlation that would/will become apparent when/if declining thickness causes faster Extent loss.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on January 31, 2020, 10:39:56 PM
Here I have plotted the normalized average extents in january, februrary and march, compared to september. Normalized meaning the value divided by the average value for the whole year. This means that the long-term trend of general melting is removed.

There seems to indeed be a strong correlation of high extent early season = low extent late season, for all three months graphed.

(https://i.imgur.com/FZSnfZG.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/bl8RRBP.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/twjL0fM.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on February 01, 2020, 04:47:59 AM
binntho
  To resolve the earlier discussion, can you graph January Extent on X axis vs. September Extent on Y axis for 1979-2019?  Even better if you show not just the slope equation but the R2, F and df (all included in the output table if you are using Excel).  That would let us estimate statistical significance. 
Sounds complicated. Besides grixm seems to have done the necessaries

Here I have plotted the normalized average extents in january, februrary and march, compared to september. Normalized meaning the value divided by the average value for the whole year. This means that the long-term trend of general melting is removed.

There seems to indeed be a strong correlation of high extent early season = low extent late season, for all three months graphed.

I for one am surprised that there is any correlation at all. And if this is real and not statistical noise, what could be the mechanism behind it?

Not only does it seem that a large extent in winter might indicate a low extent in September. Looking at the difference between the three months, if I read the graphs correctly, the longer the winter extent stays high, the stronger the correlation with low September extent.

EDIT:
The March-Sept correlation is middling

According to grixm's graphs, the March-Sept correlation is the strongest, while the Jan-Sept is the weakest of the three.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: mabarnes on February 01, 2020, 06:30:57 AM

I for one am surprised that there is any correlation at all. And if this is real and not statistical noise, what could be the mechanism behind it?


A possible mechanism?  The smaller the floating ice "cap" on the Arctic Ocean, the more open water is able to radiate heat to space, especially once the sun sets for a long period - six months at the pole, less further south but still substantial (112 days at Svalbard).  Perhaps the greater amount heat that "bleeds" from the ocean during this period influences the January extent?

Just takin' a shot.  Question for grixm - my slightly baked theory (microwaved?) would suggest September extent as the independent variable (x-axis) ... is it the other way around because your postulating "more in spring -> less in September" ...?  Thanks
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on February 01, 2020, 06:48:44 AM

I for one am surprised that there is any correlation at all. And if this is real and not statistical noise, what could be the mechanism behind it?


A possible mechanism?  The smaller the floating ice "cap" on the Arctic Ocean, the more open water is able to radiate heat to space, especially once the sun sets for a long period - six months at the pole, less further south but still substantial (112 days at Svalbard).  Perhaps the greater amount heat that "bleeds" from the ocean during this period influences the January extent?

It seems reasonable that any possible mechanism has to do with the insulating properties of ice since insolation does not enter the picture in winter. The faster the onset and larger the area of surface freezing, the more heat gets trapped. Thus bottom melt becomes a bigger factor in the following melting season.

All pure speculation. And I do not follow the logic of your last sentence. I'd think that this putative mechanism possibly causing a large winter extent to be followed by a small summer extent would precisely be caused by the ocean not bleeding the excess heat.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: psymmo7 on February 01, 2020, 09:09:33 AM
Thx grixm for focussing the argument
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on February 01, 2020, 09:15:14 AM
Overnight I realized that my graphs has a big flaw, the fact that the years are normalized with themselves can induce a lot of autocorrelation. For example, if it is the case that a low september minimum is completely random, that would still increase the ratio of normalized winter extent vs normalized september extent, because the low september extent would drag the average for the whole year down, thus increasing the normalized winter extent. Furthermore, since calculating the normalized extent requires knowledge of the average for the whole year, it is not possible to predict anything with it beforehand.

Therefore, I experimented with instead normalizing the years to their predicted average extent from a linear regression of all the years. Now, it should be truly neutral, and also you can make predictions. Unfortunately, doing this does reduce the correlation a lot, but it is still there.

Now, we can make  a prediction for 2020 based on the january value. The high extent compared to the ever-decreasing trend makes this year stand out a lot, the normalized january extent is an all-time high: 1.322. See the red area on the january graph. Will this mean the september extent  will be very low like the graph suggests? Or does it mean the correlation will break down? If we trust the graph naively, the expected normalized september minimum average for this year is 0.42, which is 4.30 Mkm^2 (which is third lowest of all time, behind 2012 and barely 2007), with a lower uncertainty bound of ~2.97 Mkm^2 and a high bound of ~5.33 Mkm^2.

(https://i.imgur.com/c03eTkF.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/G1R5Mfh.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/I1OAO2c.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on February 01, 2020, 10:17:25 AM
grixm: Brilliant! Good statistics, but what's more, actual predictions to add spice to the winter dullness. Can't wait to see how February and March turn out - and of course, to match it up to the eventual September average extent.

Which brings me to a niggle: Your graph for January predicts a September average of 4.3 Mkm2 and not a September minimum of 4.3. Correct me if I am wrong! NSIDC September average for 2012 was an amazing 3.6 but both 2007 and 2019 came in at very close to 4.3.

As for the possible mechanism behind this statistically apparent correlation: The capping of excess ocean heat by an unusally rapid freeze and larger winter extent has already been mentioned. Another mechanism could be to do with weather, in two (possibly related) ways: The same winter weather that produces rapid freezing also results in stronger preconditioning come spring, or alternatively, a bigger extent at maximum increases the changes of stronger preconditioning weather in spring.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 01, 2020, 10:22:15 AM
Higher extent could imply more export.
unihamburg-amsr2-uhh, pacific side, jan22-31
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on February 01, 2020, 10:36:06 AM
Which brings me to a niggle: Your graph for January predicts a September average of 4.3 Mkm2 and not a September minimum of 4.3. Correct me if I am wrong! NSIDC September average for 2012 was an amazing 3.6 but both 2007 and 2019 came in at very close to 4.3.


Yes that is correct, I've edited the post
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on February 01, 2020, 06:01:51 PM

HI,
An R^2 of 0.3 or 0.4 means a 60 to 70% of variability  has to be attributed to other sources. So any prediction of summer based on this is similar to pissing around strong winds, you may think you are safe you may end up very wet.

The Forum sentiment for years is that it is worthless to project until May, and taking into account other stuff, continental snow, early area loss by ponds, extent in May, etc.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Steven on February 01, 2020, 07:16:59 PM
Here I have plotted the normalized average extents in january, februrary and march, compared to september. Normalized meaning the value divided by the average value for the whole year. This means that the long-term trend of general melting is removed.

Not really.  Your method is skewed by the fact that the long-term extent losses are happening more rapidly in September than in January/February/March.

September extent in the last few years is about 40% lower than in the 1980s, whereas March extent has decreased by only 10%.  So your "normalized" March extent has an upward trend over the last few decades, whereas the normalized September extent has a downward trend.  So it's not surprising that you get a negative correlation between them.  But that correlation is spurious.

A more meaningful method is to detrend the data (see e.g. here (https://youtu.be/2-nMsoE_in0?t=1) for some background on detrending).  It turns out that the correlation between the detrended March extent and the detrended September extent is very weak: the correlation coefficient is  -0.029.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: edmountain on February 01, 2020, 11:52:23 PM
Here I have plotted the normalized average extents in january, februrary and march, compared to september. Normalized meaning the value divided by the average value for the whole year. This means that the long-term trend of general melting is removed.

Not really.  Your method is skewed by the fact that the long-term extent losses are happening more rapidly in September than in January/February/March.

September extent in the last few years is about 40% lower than in the 1980s, whereas March extent has decreased by only 10%.  So your "normalized" March extent has an upward trend over the last few decades, whereas the normalized September extent has a downward trend.  So it's not surprising that you get a negative correlation between them.  But that correlation is spurious.

A more meaningful method is to detrend the data (see e.g. here (https://youtu.be/2-nMsoE_in0?t=1) for some background on detrending).  It turns out that the correlation between the detrended March extent and the detrended September extent is very weak: the correlation coefficient is  -0.029.
This.

Also normalizing the data in above fashion creates a singularity as the mean extent tends towards zero. The non-linearity associated with this singularity further skews the statistics.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on February 03, 2020, 11:35:55 AM
The snow cover extent is about 3 mln sq km below average. It's important because we have lack of snow in the lower latitudes and albedo is important.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 03, 2020, 05:40:39 PM
Last week's 7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 03, 2020, 05:41:23 PM
Last week's ice drift map.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 03, 2020, 05:43:53 PM
Fram export GIF is very, very bad this week due to a missing day and otherwise pretty shitty flight paths. I made it anyway for consistency's sake...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 03, 2020, 07:04:32 PM
Now that January is in the books, we can test out the theory of September minimum based on January extent.  After all, that is how science works.  The January average this year was 13.56 sq. km.  Based on an analysis of the entire four decades of measurements, the September minimum would cone in around 4.9 sq. km.  Using only the past 20 years of data, the minimum would come in slightly lower at 4.8 sq. km.  Comparing to the more recent past, this year’s average falls between 2014 and 2015, which were 13.56 and 13.53 sq. km. respectively.  The minima for those years were 5.0 and 4.4.  The uncertainty is rather high, as the correlation is only fair, so that a likely range would be 4.2 - 5.5.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 03, 2020, 07:08:51 PM
Walrus:
You mean million sq. km.?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 03, 2020, 10:06:14 PM
Walrus:
You mean million sq. km.?

Yes, of course.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 04, 2020, 09:39:51 AM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
January was a persistently cold month across nearly all of Alaska, though only a few records were set. Much of mainland Alaska was the coldest January since 2012 but Panhandle was coldest since 2004. Lots of snow some near-coastal areas

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP4ZO8dVAAA7nfU?format=jpg&name=small)

Quote
Kodiak saw the 5th coldest January in more than a century  of records: average temperature was 21.9F (-5.6C). This is 8.6F (4.8C) below 1981-2010 normal. January in the 21st century has seen big swings, with 3 of the coldest and 2 of the warmest.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPy6p48U4AABQ_U?format=jpg&name=small)

The coldest January on Kodiak is the forerunner of the big summer ice loss? Top 10 includes January 2007 and 2012.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 04, 2020, 09:43:41 AM
Quote
The January average temperature at Bethel of -5.5F (-20.8C) was 12.1F (6.7C) below 1981-2010 normal but not low enough to break into the top ten coldest. There is no trend at all for January temps at Bethel past 95 years.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPvSiMGU0AAQTAC?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 04, 2020, 09:45:36 AM
Quote
Bering Sea #seaice extent up to about 87% of 1981-2010 average for the start of February in @NSIDC data. Stormier weather pattern already underway for the region. This is likely to slow growth & modify ice distribution in the coming week.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPyXEOFVAAAP6wM?format=jpg&name=small)

Quote
Average #seaice extent in the Bering Sea for January from @NSIDC  data was a bit lower than 2019 and only 81% of the 1981-2010 average. Weather was favorable for ice: a late start to ice-up & above average #sst slowed ice growth.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPvFMreU4AAL-Ab?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 04, 2020, 09:50:27 AM
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49

Quote
The NCEP/NCAR (R1) Reanalysis agrees with the JRA55, January 2020 was the 2nd warmest on record behind 2016. For the Lower 48, it was the 5th warmest since 1948 (and probably top 5 to 8 since 1900). For Europe, possibly 2nd warmest.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EP1VTEPUcAAEHPb?format=jpg&name=small)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on February 04, 2020, 10:48:55 AM
"The coldest January on Kodiak is the forerunner of the big summer ice loss? Top 10 includes January 2007 and 2012."

I think there might be some truth to that. Alaska is cold during the winter and Europe/lower 48 US is warm when the polar vortex is well behaved and no "cold-spills" reach them. Due to this there is usually little snowcover in NH midlatitudes so when spring comes they should warm up fast. This could of course lead to a fast meltout of the periphery in the Arctic which - given good weather - would lead to fast ice loss especially as there is not much old ice nowadays.

There are many ifs though...but I think we have a good chance of seeing some "fireworks" during this summer in the Arctic
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 04, 2020, 11:04:23 AM
A quick look at the Atlantic side, jan10-feb3, uni-hamburg amsr2uhh
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on February 04, 2020, 01:34:17 PM
January 22 - February 3.

2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg188003.html#msg188003).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 04, 2020, 05:29:09 PM
Therefore, I experimented with instead normalizing the years to their predicted average extent from a linear regression of all the years.
Your method is skewed by the fact that the long-term extent losses are happening more rapidly in September than in January/February/March.

September extent in the last few years is about 40% lower than in the 1980s, whereas March extent has decreased by only 10%.  So your "normalized" March extent has an upward trend over the last few decades, whereas the normalized September extent has a downward trend.  So it's not surprising that you get a negative correlation between them.  But that correlation is spurious.

A more meaningful method is to detrend the data (see e.g. here (https://youtu.be/2-nMsoE_in0?t=1) for some background on detrending).  It turns out that the correlation between the detrended March extent and the detrended September extent is very weak: the correlation coefficient is  -0.029.

    Many thanks to grixm and Steven et al. for wrestling with the numbers.  It looks like the jury is still out on this one.  While counter-intuitve [more Extent early leads to less 8 months later (Jan-Sept), 7 (Feb-Sept.), or 6 March-Sept.)], the insulating ice theory at least sounds plausible. 

    But assuming Steven's -0.029 correlation coefficient for March-September Extent is correct, that is low even for noise, and certainly not signal.  I find such a low correlation equally counter-intuitive.  My naive guess is that there would be some influence of March Extent on September Extent only 6 months later.

    Which leaves me even more jaded about Extent as being a flukey measure for status of the Arctic sea ice.  It is a real thing, and the most directly measurable, so I'm not discrediting it entirely.  But this episode seems to demonstrate that caution is needed in equating the annual maximum or minimum Extent as a precise measuring stick for ASI status and trend.  It is what it is, and the long-trend in Extent decline certainly shows us a real effect, but for year to year, or within-year, comparisons it seems too variable to draw short-term conclusions or predictions.

    If anybody is up for graphing a detrended March vs. September average Volume, that might be more conclusive.  But even that would still be subject to unknown melt season weather.  Given the considerable year to year variation we see in Volume also, as shown in the recently updated Wipneus PIOMAS volume graphs --
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas)
it seems that what we need is a skilled forecast for melt season weather. 

    My amateur foray into estimating forecast skill at 6-9 month range for midlatitude U.S. (45 degrees N, 69W) temperature and precip found a little bit of skill beyond climatology out to 6 months for temperature, but nothing worth mentioning for precip beyond about a month.  ASI melt weather seems strongly influenced by clear vs. cloudy skies.  The inability to forecast precip at a more intensively monitored and presumably better understood temperate mid-latitude location beyond a month suggests that we will not have skillful multi-month Arctic melt season forecasts anytime soon.  So we'll just have to wait and see what happens in 2020.

    But there's still room for some alarmist notification and unmitigated voodoo.  The Wipneus exponential volume trend puts the 2020 Sept. minimum more than 1 million km3 BELOW 2012.  I put more faith in the straight line trend, but even that puts 2020 at matching the 2012 record low. 

     As for the voodoo,
1) the recent low snow cover post by Pavel https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247615.html#msg247615 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247615.html#msg247615),
2) the speculation by El Cid about a cold Alaska winter leading to a strong melt season. https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247815.html#msg247815 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247815.html#msg247815)
3) the continuing trend to thinner ice and recent obliteration of old thick ice
4) and the animated ice pack image posted above by Alumimiun - which looks to me like the Atlantic front is already retreating (though that could just be daily variation) -
have got me suspecting that 2020 could have a very active melt season.  Maybe that will bring necessary attention to the larger problem.   
     
 

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on February 04, 2020, 07:45:23 PM
The Winter of 16/17 was very warm in the Arctic and the ice was crazy record low in volume starting the 2017 summer season. However, that was a warm Arctic / cold continents winter with very deep snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Siberia. Thus, Spring and summer were really late, and there were not many warm punches from the continents, rather the contrary.

This winter is kind of the opposite with this very persistent and strong Polar Vortex. However, note that the polar vortex has displaced the Arctic warm anomalies accumulated in Summer and vented out in Fall, to the high and mid latitudes of the NH. In fact it is really warm relatively speaking, probably one of the warmest Januaries for the NH.
There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring. Pray that it snows soon. An early Spring due to lack of NH snow cover is for me probably the most determining factor to start a warm melting season. True that Arctic winter is being cold and more benign for the ice but Wipneus just showed PIOMAS volume is 5th lowest in record. Not really impressive. 
Edit: Zack Labe reports a January anomaly of 3C !! Not sure if that is global or only Europe...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on February 04, 2020, 08:11:40 PM
Therefore, I experimented with instead normalizing the years to their predicted average extent from a linear regression of all the years.
Your method is skewed by the fact that the long-term extent losses are happening more rapidly in September than in January/February/March.

September extent in the last few years is about 40% lower than in the 1980s, whereas March extent has decreased by only 10%.  So your "normalized" March extent has an upward trend over the last few decades, whereas the normalized September extent has a downward trend.  So it's not surprising that you get a negative correlation between them.  But that correlation is spurious.

A more meaningful method is to detrend the data (see e.g. here (https://youtu.be/2-nMsoE_in0?t=1) for some background on detrending).  It turns out that the correlation between the detrended March extent and the detrended September extent is very weak: the correlation coefficient is  -0.029.

    Many thanks to grixm and Steven et al. for wrestling with the numbers.  It looks like the jury is still out on this one.  While counter-intuitve [more Extent early leads to less 8 months later (Jan-Sept), 7 (Feb-Sept.), or 6 March-Sept.)], the insulating ice theory at least sounds plausible. 
[..]

I normalized the months to the trend of its month alone, instead of to the whole year, like pointed out. And it seems Steven is correct. The correlation is gone..

(https://i.imgur.com/jrh3UCe.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/Fm5RsHq.png)
(https://i.imgur.com/xkJNmKz.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 04, 2020, 08:48:05 PM
Thanks grixm!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: harpy on February 05, 2020, 05:09:28 PM
The Winter of 16/17 was very warm in the Arctic and the ice was crazy record low in volume starting the 2017 summer season. However, that was a warm Arctic / cold continents winter with very deep snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, especially Siberia. Thus, Spring and summer were really late, and there were not many warm punches from the continents, rather the contrary.

This winter is kind of the opposite with this very persistent and strong Polar Vortex. However, note that the polar vortex has displaced the Arctic warm anomalies accumulated in Summer and vented out in Fall, to the high and mid latitudes of the NH. In fact it is really warm relatively speaking, probably one of the warmest Januaries for the NH.
There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring. Pray that it snows soon. An early Spring due to lack of NH snow cover is for me probably the most determining factor to start a warm melting season. True that Arctic winter is being cold and more benign for the ice but Wipneus just showed PIOMAS volume is 5th lowest in record. Not really impressive. 
Edit: Zack Labe reports a January anomaly of 3C !! Not sure if that is global or only Europe...

Right, because as the sun incidence increases over the next 30 days, it will act as a positive feedback loop on global warming when all of the landmass is dark and absorbent.

Thank you for pointing this out. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 05, 2020, 06:36:15 PM
RE grixm
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247928.html#msg247928 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247928.html#msg247928)

     I thought we were done with this, but I have another favor to ask.  Can you extend the early vs Sept. Extent comparison charts to April-August? 

    You showed above that there is no correlation of March to September, but surely there must be correlation by August.  This is probably in a journal article somewhere, but your charts are lovely and can be up to date to include 2019.  Seeing the data point spread would be really interesting.   

     For sporting interest, I'll wager such charts would show R2 around:
April 10%
May 20%
June 30%
July 50%
August 80%

    And if anybody did the same for Volume, that would be icing on the cake.

PS in case you zipped past binntho's post in the data thread at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg247842.html#msg247842 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg247842.html#msg247842)
   The articles he cites there provide really nice long-term context for ASI variability and current situation.  Good stuff.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on February 05, 2020, 07:39:22 PM
RE grixm
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247928.html#msg247928 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2888.msg247928.html#msg247928)

     I thought we were done with this, but I have another favor to ask.  Can you extend the early vs Sept. Extent comparison charts to April-August? 

    You showed above that there is no correlation of March to September, but surely there must be correlation by August.  This is probably in a journal article somewhere, but your charts are lovely and can be up to date to include 2019.  Seeing the data point spread would be really interesting.   

     For sporting interest, I'll wager such charts would show R2 around:
April 10%
May 20%
June 30%
July 50%
August 80%

    And if anybody did the same for Volume, that would be icing on the cake.

PS in case you zipped past binntho's post in the data thread at
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg247842.html#msg247842 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg247842.html#msg247842)
   The articles he cites there provide really nice long-term context for ASI variability and current situation.  Good stuff.

(https://i.imgur.com/rABytls.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/2c9F4AD.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/cweoiPc.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/LlxBsbr.png)

(https://i.imgur.com/tREQnQ4.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 05, 2020, 07:45:36 PM
Nice!  Thanks!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2020, 12:12:17 PM
Wipneus just showed PIOMAS volume is 5th lowest in record. Not really impressive.

However further to previous discussions the "measured" volume using CryoSat-2/SMOS data is significantly lower than PIOMAS this year:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3000.0;attach=142716;image)

In case it's of interest the source code for the program that crunched the numbers and the resulting raw "measured" volume data can be downloaded over at:

"CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic Sea Ice Volume (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3000)"

ASIF topic number 3000!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 06, 2020, 12:47:01 PM
Nice!  ;D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: weatherdude88 on February 06, 2020, 01:13:45 PM
Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.
(https://i.imgur.com/V8WI6RG.png)


However, the snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.
(https://i.imgur.com/dkT3eII.png)


The higher latitude regions that have snow cover, have a lot of it.
(https://i.imgur.com/oEClvaH.png)



As we approach the end of the 2019/2020 freezing season, we may have more ice and snow volume, in harder to melt areas at higher latitudes, than all years in the previous decade.

There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring.

To the contrary, we may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2020, 01:18:45 PM
However, the snow water equivalent (the total volume) is significantly above the 1998-2011 average.

However, where albedo is concerned surely area is more relevant than thickness? Whether one is talking about sea ice or snow cover!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#comment-313127

Quote
As I have stated numerous times, let’s see how things look in May before jumping to any hasty conclusions about what the 2020 Arctic sea ice melting season might bring?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on February 06, 2020, 03:14:49 PM

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
In february and march the lower latitudes are more important in terms of albedo while the higher latitudes snow cover become important in May/June. We have now extra heat absorbing in 3 mln sq km of land
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 06, 2020, 04:45:41 PM

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
In february and march the lower latitudes are more important in terms of albedo while the higher latitudes snow cover become important in May/June. We have now extra heat absorbing in 3 mln sq km of land

True, but how relevant is it to Arctic sea ice.  Much if the lower latitude snow cover can be correlated with temperatures (melt is significant as temperatures rise above freezing).  Using the average January temperature in Chicago (using other U.S. cities will yield comparable results), since 1998 (the year the ice started its precipitous decline), there is no correlation with Arctic sea ice.  The trend line is completely flat.  The warmest January averages (prior to this year) were 2006, 2002, 2012, 1998, and 2017 respectively. 2012 is a noteworthy year, but the others are unremarkable.  Two resulted in declining sea ice at minimum, while two yielded increasing sea ice.  The warmest year, 2006, was one of the highest year-over-year sea ice gains.  The coldest years were 2014, 2009, 2004, 2011, and 2019 respectively. 

One could argue that this analysis of increased temperatures and decreased snow cover only covers the lower latitudes of North America.  Interestingly enough, the warmest January in Chicago (2006) corresponded to the second coldest January in Fairbanks, Alaska, and the coldest (2014) was the second warmest.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on February 06, 2020, 06:06:27 PM
Northern hemisphere snow cover is well below average this winter.
...
There is an astounding lack of snow cover in Europe, and also a relative lack in America. The heat may come to the Arctic with a vengeance in the form of a very early NH Spring.

To the contrary, we may have an extended 2019/2020 freezing season. The 2020 northern hemisphere sea ice melting season may get off to a slow start.

There has been significant focus on the lack of snow extent cover, at lower latitude and easier to melt regions, even though we have near record snow/ice volume in the more difficult to melt regions.
Fair enough, if the volume at high latitudes is so high, we'll see. One thing though, the second plot you show, snow volume, is every year the same anomalously high. Not very useful.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 06, 2020, 06:45:18 PM
Snow area in January ranked third in the 21st century after 2007 and 2014.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: edmountain on February 06, 2020, 07:32:50 PM
Snow area in January ranked third in the 21st century after 2007 and 2014.
I assume you mean third lowest? What's the source of the data?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2020, 07:47:11 PM
One thing though, the second plot you show, snow volume, is every year the same anomalously high. Not very useful.

See for example:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globsnow.info%2Fswe%2FGCW%2FGCW_Snow_Watch_plot_20190203_SWE_NRT_v1.3.png&hash=897bbde7beb0e2ff6e9673a8cf8475f2)

There's plenty more where that came from:

http://www.globsnow.info/swe/GCW/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2020, 07:50:44 PM
What's the source of the data?

https://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_anom.php?ui_set=1&ui_region=nhland&ui_month=1
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on February 06, 2020, 09:33:04 PM
you would never guess there is a thread for northern hemisphere snow cover .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Steven on February 06, 2020, 11:18:15 PM
You showed above that there is no correlation of March to September, but surely there must be correlation by August.

As an addition to grixm's graphs, below is a table showing the correlations between detrended monthly sea ice extent data for each possible combination of months, from January to December.  For the calculation, I used the NSIDC extent data for 1979-2019.  The detrending that I'm using is slightly different from the one used by grixm, but the results seem to agree very well with his.

Note that the table shows the monthly correlation coefficients R rather than the squared correlations R^2, and it  has some grey background colors to indicate the strength of the monthly correlations, with darker colors indicating stronger correlations:

(click to enlarge the image)

(https://i.imgur.com/fx2xsOX.png)


The most noteworthy feature to me is the lack of correlation between May and June.  I guess it's because the weather conditions and preconditioning in late May and in June play a very important role for the rest of the melt season.  That time of year is basically the start of the melt pond season in the Arctic proper.

And here is a similar graph (https://imgur.com/a/O82kzZZ) for monthly PIOMAS volume data, rather than extent.  As expected, the correlations are much stronger in that case.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on February 06, 2020, 11:23:36 PM
for the ice but Wipneus just showed PIOMAS volume is 5th lowest in record. Not really impressive. 
Edit: Zack Labe reports a January anomaly of 3C !! Not sure if that is global or only Europe...

Considering that Extent is between 10th and 15th and volume is 5th lowest that tells me at least a big story and is very impressive indeed.

The point is that ice must be significantly thinner than back in time when extent was around that and volume in similar positions.

If we further put into account that piomas is most probably on the "optimistic" side, there are indicators that this is so, everything is even worse and therefore way more impressive.

Since this trend is continuing if not accelerating a few of the not impressed will have a nasty wakeup call in the not so distant future. Better be prepared.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on February 07, 2020, 06:50:16 AM
Moved from the data thread after a kindly reminder ...  8)

Before we all start to get too expressive about excessive extent, I'd like to point out that we are talking about comparatively small differences between the various years. Random weather effects  such as wind driven export could easily account for all the variation we see in the last decade.

And of course, as much cleverer people than me have decisively shown (I trust ...) there is absolutely no correlation with summer extent. Which tempts me to conclude that there is no correlation with temperatures either - i.e. winter extent will be more or less what we are seing now, with small random variations, until at some point in a (probably) distant future when winter refreezes doesn't manage to fill the entire Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 07, 2020, 02:24:50 PM
Considering that.... volume is 5th lowest that tells me at least a big story

That depends on which metric you look at. At the risk of repeating myself (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3000):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3000.0;attach=142715;image)

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 07, 2020, 02:27:37 PM
you would never guess there is a thread for northern hemisphere snow cover .. b.c.

There doesn't seem to be an adequate emoticon, in which case ROFL!

ASIF topic #103:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,103
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 07, 2020, 02:53:09 PM
Considering that.... volume is 5th lowest that tells me at least a big story

That depends on which metric you look at. At the risk of repeating myself (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3000):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=3000.0;attach=142715;image)

At the risk of sounding stupid, there is 3 lines there upto the current date, 2 of them are dashed lines in totally different positions so what does that graph tells us? Should we just look at the solid red line and suggest volume is at 2nd lowest just above 2017(despite being totally opposite freezing seasons). Also I'm sure I read in the past that crysosat may get confused with snow on the ice itself?

PIOMAS may not be perfect but it does seem more realistic given the freezing season so far?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on February 07, 2020, 03:57:43 PM
The dashed lines are the upper/lower bounds. I would just go with the red line. This is rather new so in a couple of years we will know when it is becoming less reliable in the year and how it compares to PIOMAS or even better measures if available...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 07, 2020, 04:26:34 PM
Actually I looked at that chart again and it suggests the start of 2013 has the lowest volume on record despite 2013 having a better refreeze season after the record melt.

Not sure I fully trust that chart to be honest, all that said things can change rapidly in the Arctic so anything can happen by September.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 07, 2020, 04:48:20 PM
"The coldest January on Kodiak is the forerunner of the big summer ice loss? Top 10 includes January 2007 and 2012."

I think there might be some truth to that. Alaska is cold during the winter and Europe/lower 48 US is warm when the polar vortex is well behaved and no "cold-spills" reach them. Due to this there is usually little snowcover in NH midlatitudes so when spring comes they should warm up fast. This could of course lead to a fast meltout of the periphery in the Arctic which - given good weather - would lead to fast ice loss especially as there is not much old ice nowadays.

There are many ifs though...but I think we have a good chance of seeing some "fireworks" during this summer in the Arctic

A similar picture throughout Alaska

Quote
January 2020 was plenty cold in Alaska, but it did not crack the bottom ten for Alaska over the past 96 years. There is not a significant linear trend over that time, but there is a well defined "step" increase in the mid-1970s. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQHId5kVUAAa0Kw.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 07, 2020, 07:32:26 PM
Actually I looked at that chart again and it suggests the start of 2013 has the lowest volume on record.

From the summer of 2013:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2013-images/

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 10:15:13 PM
Looks like much of Canada in the deep freeze for the next 4 weeks.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s

Not often you see a 100% expectation of below normal temperatures over such a large swath of the Canadian far North
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 07, 2020, 10:23:46 PM
Actually I looked at that chart again and it suggests the start of 2013 has the lowest volume on record.

From the summer of 2013:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2013-images/

But the lowest volume was recorded during the winter of 2013 according to that chart and not during the summer when that chart of the pole  was posted.

I find it (very) hard to believe that volume in 2017 is higher than it was in 2013 and this year given how warm the 16/17 winter was. The theory that crysosat confuses heavy snow cover for volume could well be the case here as lots of snowfall must of fell onto the ice pack giveen how much moisture headed upto the pole that winter.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 07, 2020, 10:40:44 PM
The theory that crysosat confuses heavy snow cover for volume could well be the case here as lots of snowfall must of fell onto the ice pack giveen how much moisture headed upto the pole that winter.

I'm not sure that adequately describes "the theory". CryoSat makes some assumptions about snow cover when it converts freeboard measurements to ice thickness. There's plenty more on all that sort of thing over on ASIF topic #8:

"PIOMAS vs CryoSat (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8)"
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: edmountain on February 07, 2020, 10:52:22 PM
Not often you see a 100% expectation of below normal temperatures over such a large swath of the Canadian far North
I think it's technically in the 90-100% range. But still unusual for sure.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: NotaDenier on February 08, 2020, 04:52:14 PM
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-arctic-ice-ocean-currents.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on February 09, 2020, 11:18:58 AM
The Laptev sea has the huge areas of the new thin ice. The wind pattern in the next days will continue to push the ice toward the Fram strait.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 09, 2020, 12:33:14 PM
Together with the latest CS2/SMOS volume. The "blip" at the end of January will probably disappear when the "reanalysed" data reaches that date:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on February 09, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
ESRL ice thickness for 8th Feb 2020, also showing the thin ice in Olenekskiy Bay (Laptev Sea) as mentioned by Pavel.

Contrast ESRL ice thickness from just over a year ago (end of Janaury 2019) 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 09, 2020, 04:43:38 PM
7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies, Sunday to Sunday.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 09, 2020, 04:51:38 PM
Last weeks Fram export via SAR
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 11, 2020, 12:43:27 PM
Together with the latest CS2/SMOS volume. The "blip" at the end of January will probably disappear when the "reanalysed" data reaches that date:

Stefan Hendricks has just explained "the blip":

https://spaces.awi.de/display/SIRAL/2020/02/11/CryoSat-2+-+missing+NRT+data+in+baseline-D

Quote
The NRT Level-1 data to the CryoSat-2 sea ice product is missing several orbits, mostly in the Russian Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on February 12, 2020, 11:03:12 AM
Look at all these polynyas and cracking in the ESS/Laptev. Is this normal during peak freeze season?

(https://i.imgur.com/4u4nbGn.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on February 12, 2020, 11:43:13 AM
 ^^ yes .. take a look at last year for example .. the ice leaving Fram or ridging must be replaced . This is where it mostly happens to happen .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 12, 2020, 12:26:36 PM
It's normal to see polynya and ridging along the fixed ice line. Not so sure about the large radial leads. https://go.nasa.gov/39ujJ38 (suomi/npp only goes back to sep2017)

Animation here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg249252.html#msg249252)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on February 12, 2020, 12:42:33 PM
https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx

Quote
Bering Sea #seaice continues to increase & total extent is now almost at the 1981-2010 median for the date from @NSIDC data. Bering ice at the highest extent for early February since 2013. Increase this week mostly near Chukotka. #akwx #Arctic @Climatologist49 @KNOMnews @KYUKNews

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQWQ-CAU4AAgXv0.jpg)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 12, 2020, 01:47:09 PM
Now that is strange, really different Arctic circulation patterns countinue

Quote
Yes a Cyclone from the Atlantic is heading to the Pacific straight from East to West.  Because the CTNP,  the North American Cold Temperature North Pole vortice is well South of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.   Is quite warm over Ellesmere Island at present compared to further South.  Even though Ellesmere is still plunged in 24 hour darkness.   All in all, 19-20 winter is no recent year pattern repeat.  This feature announces more strangeness to come.

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/02/now-that-is-strange-really-different.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: dnem on February 12, 2020, 03:56:16 PM
Is vortice a word? Vortex singular; vortices plural, no?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 12, 2020, 07:02:27 PM
Last week ARCUS held a webinar on my favourite topic. “Ocean Waves in the New Arctic”, presented by Jim Thomson from the University of Washington.

Here's the story of how I only managed to watch the second half live:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/02/jim-thomson-waves-in-ice-webinar/

and here's the recording:

https://youtu.be/5sv3165xtIg

Essential viewing. IMHO!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2020, 07:31:01 PM
Is vortice a word? Vortex singular; vortices plural, no?
Does the name of a company count as a word?

https://www.vortice.ltd.uk/
The best ideas
for ventilation
Improving the quality of life also means improving the quality of the air we breathe. VORTICE was incorporated to design and distribute ventilation appliances for heating, cooling, refreshing and cleaning the air in enclosed spaces where people live and work.

Combining design and practicality, VORTICE ventilation products handle air efficiently and safely, with care for the environment and for the well-being of people.  If you’re looking for bathroom fans, kitchen fans, utility fans or heat recovery systems, shop for our products now!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on February 14, 2020, 11:21:27 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2906.0;attach=143304;image)
Looking at Nullschool (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/02/11/0000Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-42.86,82.60,512/loc=167.653,76.882)  suggests that a combination of high pressure and low tides were contributing to a rush for the exits.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 14, 2020, 12:55:05 PM
Despite the drift, plenty of 1-2yr old ice is still melting on arrival at Svalbard. The forecast deep cyclone over Barents/Kara persists from the long term into medium term.
Extent on feb10 "10,048 k, 790 k (8.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,258 k." (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg249132.html#msg249132)
Near term Kara drift possibly outweighs upcoming Barents drift and melt.
Bering sea already way over recent maximums
Baffin at all time low, very little MYI component.
Relatively mild over Okhotsk coastal region.

Early maximum extent?
Wipneus regional area feb12
Worldview, Atlantic side, https://go.nasa.gov/3bFFajp (rotated-north is down)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 14, 2020, 02:04:15 PM
Early maximum extent?

Who'd have thunk it? "Snow White"!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#comment-315058

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gandul on February 14, 2020, 03:06:47 PM
Early maximum extent?

Who'd have thunk it? "Snow White"!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#comment-315058

"Fluctuations are normal this time of year."
The perfect non-explanation of it
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Unmex Chingon on February 14, 2020, 03:41:09 PM
Early maximum extent?

Who'd have thunk it? "Snow White"!

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#comment-315058

Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: pauldry600 on February 14, 2020, 05:26:40 PM
I'll call it

No it will go up and down until the end of month at least

There

Watch it drop like a stone now
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 14, 2020, 05:53:10 PM
Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?

I'm teasing a subset of Judith Curry's denizens.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2020, 06:43:37 PM
From one of my posts on the extent thread
___________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.7 to +2.9 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice). To add to that, the extra strong polar vortex in the Atlantic spawned Storm Ciara and now Storm Dennis which look like it has caused, is causing and will cause havoc in the Atlantic Front.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
__________________________
When looking beyond 5 days the crystal ball goes foggy.
It is about 4 weeks before the average date of maximum, and the minimum date of maximum since 2002 is 15th Feb (2015), 2nd earliest 28 Feb (2016).

As I am in need of light relief I look forward to science-based forecasts of the maximum date and maximum value
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 14, 2020, 11:02:00 PM
great webinar!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on February 15, 2020, 07:19:54 AM
From one of my posts on the extent thread
<snippage>
A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice). To add to that, the extra strong polar vortex in the Atlantic spawned Storm Ciara and now Storm Dennis which look like it has caused, is causing and will cause havoc in the Atlantic Front.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
__________________________
When looking beyond 5 days the crystal ball goes foggy.
It is about 4 weeks before the average date of maximum, and the minimum date of maximum since 2002 is 15th Feb (2015), 2nd earliest 28 Feb (2016).
Incisive as ever.

I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.  As you well point out, prediction right now is a mugs game, but the train of heat starting in the Caribbean stretching all the way to Scandinavia is astounding, along with the incredible low pressures they achieved.

All that energy has been crashing into the Barents/Kara region, and the low pressure systems themselves are predicted to track north through the Norwegian Sea into the Barents over the next few days.  At the least, that will make expansion of ice very difficult, and may dredge heat from depth that will similarly impede freezing.  I will be watching how the systems evolve closely, as well as the incredible atmospheric rivers exporting of moisture out of Caribbean and elsewhere
 in the tropical Atlantic.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on February 15, 2020, 01:21:09 PM
I'll take a punt, stall/small drop for a couple of days, then steeper drop for another couple, likely into new territory [on G's graph]  then accelerated drop which will either go into overdrive or halt and reverse dependent on whether the low moves over the deep [St. Anna/Nansen] or heads south over Siberia.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 15, 2020, 01:29:38 PM
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1228656494951960578):

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 15, 2020, 06:22:52 PM
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1228656494951960578):

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:

The flow goes via Scandinavia and up towards the North Pole via the Kara sea so any tropical elements of the low pressure system is well gone but yes temperatures across the Kara sea and up towards the pole is set to rise quite a bit. May not last long though so I doubt it will have too much affects apart from potential ice loss in the Kara sea.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 15, 2020, 07:17:03 PM
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1228656494951960578):

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:

Warmth has been intruding into the Arctic from western Russia for much of the winter. My guess is the Chukchi, Laptev and Kara Seas are going to have a bad melt season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 15, 2020, 09:11:53 PM
I think we may look back at the explosion of Storm Ciara/Dennis as being a key point in the year.

As my alter ego has just pointed out over on Twitter (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1228656494951960578):

In due course the "phenomenal winter warmth" from Storm Dennis will reach the  North Pole:

Warmth has been intruding into the Arctic from western Russia for much of the winter. My guess is the Chukchi, Laptev and Kara Seas are going to have a bad melt season.

That's not what I been seeing, for the most part the Barants sea lows has been deflected by the PV and colder winds have dominated the Kara sea as a result, its only in the last few days warmer winds have been hitting the Kara sea area and ice is now lifting and retreating(although probably not melting) this is look to continue for a while yet.

Chukchi Sea ice looks more resilient than the last 2 years due to lack of ridges heading into the Bering sea, of course things can change but at the moment I'll be surprised if we l see an early retreat of the Chukchi sea ice like we have seen in the past 2 years.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on February 16, 2020, 09:03:39 AM
February 1 - 15.

2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2413.msg188865.html#msg188865).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 16, 2020, 12:22:22 PM
North Atlantic Storminess – February 13-15, 2020

Quote
A rapidly intensifying low pressure system made its way into the Atlantic on Tuesday, 11 February 2020 and quickly grew into a powerful extratropical cyclone producing hurricane force winds by Thursday, 13 February 2020. By 0600 UTC on 14 February 2020, the low bottomed out with a minimum low pressure of 929mb. This system deepened by more than 40 mb in 24 hours during its rapid intensification phase, classifying it as a “bomb” cyclone. It tracked north towards Iceland where it caused hurricane force wind gusts, the highest gust, although terrain enhanced, reached 159 mph (https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/near-record-wind-gusts-255kmh-hafnarfjall-iceland-mk/). These gusts were recorded on the leading edge of the cyclone where the cold conveyor belt north of the occluded front in the N-NE quadrants played a role.

Link >> https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2020/02/16/north-atlantic-storminess-february-13-15-2020/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 02:26:57 PM
North Atlantic Storminess – February 13-15, 2020

See also the February 16th "Storm Dennis" update:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2984.msg249638.html#msg249638
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 02:29:35 PM
Here's the latest update of "Snow White's" novel "near real time" Arctic sea ice volume (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2969.0.html) metric:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#Feb-16

Please note that there is a known problem with the NRT data from January 31st onwards.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Unmex Chingon on February 16, 2020, 05:06:28 PM
Jim - Are you calling it the maximum extent already? Yes or No - Or are you "kind of" in case it does happen and you can say you told us so?

I'm teasing a subset of Judith Curry's denizens.

Got it...  You did NOT call it yet then...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 16, 2020, 06:15:17 PM
7-day hindsight mean temperature anomalies.

Sunday to Sunday.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 16, 2020, 06:28:30 PM
Sunday to Sunday Fram export via SAR.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 16, 2020, 07:08:55 PM
Here's the latest update of "Snow White's" novel "near real time" Arctic sea ice volume (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2969.0.html) metric:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/01/wheres-the-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-gone/#Feb-16

Please note that there is a known problem with the NRT data from January 31st onwards.

Wow! Just wow! Given that volume is the most important metric when measuring the long term health of arctic ice, this chart is scary.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 07:48:41 PM
Wow! Just wow! Given that volume is the most important metric when measuring the long term health of arctic ice, this chart is scary.

Agreed, but it will be interesting to compare those numbers with the mid-month PIOMAS update, assuming that one appears this month.

For some reason this year CS2 and PIOMAS seem to be at variance more than usual, so a pinch or two of salt is required.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 17, 2020, 09:47:04 AM
JAXA's AMSR2 extent has turned down again, but Wipneus's high resolution 3.125 km grid area never turned up! Hi res extent did, but barely.

JAXA includes the 16th. Hi res does not.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on February 20, 2020, 11:55:50 AM
Daylight has returned to the Parry channel, a potential export route late in the melting season

There is movement of ice East of the ice bridge:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Iain on February 20, 2020, 11:58:23 AM
2020 extent of moving ice is further West than in 2019, but not so far as 2018 or 2017
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 20, 2020, 12:19:52 PM
https://go.nasa.gov/37EBZFr, Okhotsk sea (north), feb10-20, unihamburg-amsr2uhh inset. ctr

edit: Early maximum extent just about hanging in there. Probably dependent mostly on possible increases in Okhotsk and Baffin/Newfoundland (still at all time low). Bering still high for recent years and Barents/Kara forecast for southerly winds, so drifting north. Very little MYI in Greenland and Baffin Seas.
Wipneus regional extent, feb18. updated to feb19 - barentsz/kara drop, baffin/nfld rise, okhotsk slightly up, bering(very southerly) likely over reached with the continuous drift.
hmm St Lawrence
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2020, 02:35:58 PM
Looks like bloody cold in Canada (and much of USA) over the next few weeks.

Also looks likely to be a big contrast with Northern Europe and Siberia for some time to come.

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/image_e.html?img=mfe1t_s
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 20, 2020, 05:59:58 PM
Drift on the Atlantic side before the forecast warm spell.
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, atl, feb10-19
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 21, 2020, 12:40:25 AM
That cold/warm dichotomy may stall any growth in ice extent.  Most of the growth potential is on the European side.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 21, 2020, 10:03:48 AM
New maximum extent.
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
February 20th, 2020:
     14,099,241 km2, a century increase of 114,662 km2.  :o
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Less running commentary ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 21, 2020, 10:26:58 AM
New maximum extent.

It will be interesting to discover when Wipneus's hi res numbers follow suit. In the mean time DMI T2 has reacted as predicted:
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jontenoy on February 21, 2020, 05:35:11 PM
Why does sea ice volume reach  a maximum 6 weeks after sea ice extent ?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 21, 2020, 05:50:29 PM
Why does sea ice volume reach  a maximum 6 weeks after sea ice extent ?

Because the thin peripheral ice starts to melt even whilst the thick central ice continues to get thicker.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 22, 2020, 02:31:46 PM
It's a bit cloudy, and today's daylight images haven't arrived yet, but band 31 reveals some recent movement in the Beaufort Sea:

https://go.nasa.gov/2ujNZ1x
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 22, 2020, 02:36:53 PM
It's not summer yet, but this new discussion paper makes interesting reading nonetheless:

https://www.the-cryosphere-discuss.net/tc-2020-35/

Quote
We report on results of a systematic inter-comparison of 10 global sea-ice concentration (SIC) data products at 12.5 to 50.0 km grid resolution from satellite passive microwave (PMW) observations for the Arctic during summer. The products are compared against SIC and net ice-surface fraction (ISF) – SIC minus the per-grid cell melt-pond fraction (MPF) on sea ice – as derived from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite observations and observed from ice-going vessels.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 22, 2020, 11:25:39 PM
Recent movement north of Greenland. rammb feb18-22
North is left, Greenland top right.
https://col.st/JoIXp

edit: Today's worldview image https://go.nasa.gov/2unex1X
click for full resolution
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 23, 2020, 10:46:28 PM
Hindsight time!

First, the ice drift map.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 23, 2020, 10:47:24 PM
7-day mean temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on February 23, 2020, 10:48:12 PM
And the thick ice down the drain, the Fram export via SAR.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on February 24, 2020, 11:51:37 AM
Winds in the strait will be strong next days.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on February 25, 2020, 05:09:42 AM
There is very definitely a serious back-and-forth dance going on, especially on the Atlantic side - day over day swings of 50,000km2 both up and down.

The divergence in increase and rate between area and extent - in some cases it appears with area dropping while extent increases - has me thinking most recent increases are the formation of lead ice in between older floes.  Add to this, that a significant fraction of the increase in both is in Okhotsk, that suggests the other changes are less meaningful.

I think we are very close to max, and the continuing high temperatures aren't particularly good for late season thickening that needs to take place; DMI 80n temps continue to run close to 10c above normal.

Northern hemisphere snow distribution is uneven - modest positive anomalies across parts of Siberia and N. America, but significant regions at high latitude in Europe that are currently snow-free with daily increasing heat.

Again, not sure what to conclude yet, but nothing happening this year I can consider any sort of a "recovery" even with the strong polar vortex we had for a while.  That still hasn't prevented big lows from pumping heat out of the tropics to high latitude.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: F.Tnioli on February 26, 2020, 12:14:38 PM
...
Northern hemisphere snow distribution is uneven - modest positive anomalies across parts of Siberia and N. America, but significant regions at high latitude in Europe that are currently snow-free with daily increasing heat.
...
My bold. I said it a while ago about "no snow cover during late winter triggers massive albedo feedback", meaning by this significant insolation in February, March and April hitting dark Earth surface instead of white snow. Which brings in - as it stands right now - truly massive extra heat into the system where and when this heat is not supposed to be. Above posted temperature anomalies for large area south of Scandinavia and large parts of Siberia - are mind-boggling to me.

I foresee highly unusual melting season as a result. In particular, i expect great number of strong cyclones entering the Arctic and some, possibly, forming in it much earlier and stronger than ever before. Russian Far East and much of Canada remaining cold while Atlantic side warming up at an accelerating pace (low albedo plus rapidly increasing effective insolation as Sun gets higher over horizon for longer times in more and more places) - will create huge air masses of wildly different temperature, which will sooner or later interact with quite predictable result. Not good for ice, i guess...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on February 26, 2020, 12:46:45 PM

My bold. I said it a while ago about "no snow cover during late winter triggers massive albedo feedback", meaning by this significant insolation in February, March and April hitting dark Earth surface instead of white snow. Which brings in - as it stands right now - truly massive extra heat into the system ...

hi.
I live on 60N in Scandinavia and this has been the 'new normal'  winter for a decade at least. Our winters are getting much shorter as a result.

But there is no punch at all in the sun at these latitudes in Feb., and March. It's not gonna bring in "massive extra heat" as you write. In April insolation is strong, but by then snow is mostly gone anyway.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on February 26, 2020, 03:25:18 PM
hi.
I live on 60N in Scandinavia and this has been the 'new normal'  winter for a decade at least. Our winters are getting much shorter as a result.

But there is no punch at all in the sun at these latitudes in Feb., and March. It's not gonna bring in "massive extra heat" as you write. In April insolation is strong, but by then snow is mostly gone anyway.

A few remarks:

- you may not feel the punch in cold air-masses and the frequent inversions where the air at ground level and close to it is colder than at some higher altitudes.

- nevertheless the energy that can be measured, even at low sun-angles IS SIGNIFICANT.
. In fact, compared to zero it's even huge while not TOP-Level of course.

- Said energy, meeting darker surfaces, makes a "HUGE" difference. Not only in absorbing
. energy but also by quicker melting of the remaining and/or existing snow cover.

- 60N is slightly north of  Oslo and goes through St. Petersburg to name just 2 of the largeer and
. better known places. That's "NOT" very far north, it's around the northernmost tip of the UK.

Whatever the details, the impact on darker surfaces, compared to white surfaces, is significant at "ANY" sun angle. Even though our thickly dressed protected skin does not feel that way, last but no least due to wind and humidity as 2 of several key factors. More humid air in winter often sticks to the ground with an impact as described above.

There is more to it but then I only wanted to +1 F.T.,
I found his description, in all briefness, kind of spot on.

Thing is that if we write long/much, it's frowned upon. If we write short, those with a tendency to find a hair in every soup would easily find their "angle of attack" while the original meaning
was quite accurate and mostly well meant.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on February 26, 2020, 09:36:56 PM
hi.
I live on 60N in Scandinavia and this has been the 'new normal'  winter for a decade at least. Our winters are getting much shorter as a result.
<snip>

A few remarks:

- you may not feel the punch in cold air-masses and the frequent inversions where the air at ground level and close to it is colder than at some higher altitudes.

- nevertheless the energy that can be measured, even at low sun-angles IS SIGNIFICANT.
. In fact, compared to zero it's even huge while not TOP-Level of course.

- Said energy, meeting darker surfaces, makes a "HUGE" difference. Not only in absorbing
. energy but also by quicker melting of the remaining and/or existing snow cover.
<snip>

+1 to your +1;

I think to put it in context Hefaistos, you need to think not necessarily about what's happening now, but where conditions will be in 3-4 weeks.

What is happening is setup, much like how much running room you have leading up to a broad jump.  By losing snow this early, and picking up what are modest but still significant amounts of solar energy means that considerably more energy will
(1) ... be captured directly at Arctic latitudes
(2) ... be available early in the melt season
(3) ... not be required for/buffered by local phase change (e.g. melting snow locally)
(4) ... indirectly permit more transport of heat to the Arctic from lower latitudes. (primarily via
          increased moisture)

We are not necessarily increasing the amount of energy available, but we are extending the melt season by way of making it possible to capture that energy earlier.

Another way of looking at it is to think about melt rate at the peak of the season.  The difference between 2012 and pretty much every year starting with 2016 is 7-10 days of peak melt.  That's the razor's edge we are on.

The earlier the heat can be made available is that much more opportunity for us to have those peak melt days, and regardless (within reason) of the starting ice conditions that makes a 2012 event more likely.

If we have another "perfect" melt season like 2012, it means blowing past that year into the realm of sub-3 million km2 extent.  *Well* past.

We've been rolling dice with this for the best part of a decade.  Each additional year has loaded the dice progressively in favor of melt.

That's why lots of bare ground at high latitudes is concerning, even before the equinox.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Hefaistos on February 26, 2020, 10:43:15 PM
Thanks for your input.
F.Tnioli made a pretty bold statement:
Quote
I foresee highly unusual melting season as a result. In particular, i expect great number of strong cyclones entering the Arctic and some, possibly, forming in it much earlier and stronger than ever before.

I don't see the link between a very gradual loss of albedo over land in the early months of the year when insolation is very weak, to the formation of a "great number of strong cyclones".

The Arctic sea ice has had a good year so far compared to the decadal average.
I hypothesize we will have an average melting season without much drama.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 26, 2020, 10:49:01 PM
Thanks for your input.
F.Tnioli made a pretty bold statement:
Quote
I foresee highly unusual melting season as a result. In particular, i expect great number of strong cyclones entering the Arctic and some, possibly, forming in it much earlier and stronger than ever before.

I don't see the link between a very gradual loss of albedo over land in the early months of the year when insolation is very weak, to the formation of a "great number of strong cyclones".

The Arctic sea ice has had a good year so far compared to the decadal average.
I hypothesize we will have an average melting season without much drama.

Let me be the first to agree with you.  Let’s see how many follow suit.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on February 26, 2020, 10:55:30 PM
Another way of looking at it is to think about melt rate at the peak of the season.  The difference between 2012 and pretty much every year starting with 2016 is 7-10 days of peak melt.  That's the razor's edge we are on.

Interesting point. This year might be a good test with all the extras we get via the pandemic. There was already going to be a change in shipping emissions and that signal got extra strong with reduced shipping and there are lots of other knock on effects on the way.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on February 26, 2020, 11:48:40 PM
I think it's far too early to really speculate what the melting season may hold, it's too easy to say we may head for a bad melt season just because Europe snowcover is below average. I believe the Eurasian snow cover is marginally above average so its apples and oranges as far as I'm concerned.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on February 27, 2020, 08:00:05 AM
Another way of looking at it is to think about melt rate at the peak of the season.  The difference between 2012 and pretty much every year starting with 2016 is 7-10 days of peak melt.  That's the razor's edge we are on.

Interesting point. This year might be a good test with all the extras we get via the pandemic. There was already going to be a change in shipping emissions and that signal got extra strong with reduced shipping and there are lots of other knock on effects on the way.
I fear a single year's variation in emissions really won't seriously affect any given melt season.

There's already been far too much of an increase in total system enthalpy, and the whole climate is trying to shift to accommodate and re-balance itself with the already existing increase in greenhouse gasses.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on February 27, 2020, 08:45:42 AM
Emissions meant masking aerosols in this case, removal of which may lead to short-term warming.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: nanning on February 27, 2020, 10:00:41 AM
^^
Local short-term warming, so not directly affecting the Arctic I think.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Rodius on February 27, 2020, 10:42:03 AM
^^
Local short-term warming, so not directly affecting the Arctic I think.

Local China is turning into local Europe and local USA in the coming few months.
While I have no idea what the results will be, it could give us a lot of interesting information moving forward.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on February 27, 2020, 01:15:55 PM
https://go.nasa.gov/2w5JEzD, update on ice north of Greenland. Not looking too good despite the cold.
ascat, feb20-26
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on February 27, 2020, 03:56:45 PM
Very quick export in just a week. The Laptev sea looks vulnerable because it has lost its autumn ice and has lack of fast ice, combined with the late start of refreeze. If the Siberian snow will melt early the Laptev bite could be very strong this summer
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on February 28, 2020, 12:25:06 AM
Agreed Pavel.

And I expect the Kara Sea will melt out quickly this year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: johnm33 on February 29, 2020, 12:40:56 PM
"ice north of Greenland" With persistent lows over Barents the tidally enhanced flow into the arctic would increase, some water has to leave, i guess the shear zone is quite shallow and everything above it is moving towards Fram, hence the unusual size of the area on the move. The more or less persistent high[mslp] on the Beaufort side would add to the impetus. It's hard to establish any current but once established a 'slime effect' come into play and until some other random event disturbs the flow it'll persist. If Wayne at eh2r is right we may be stuck with this weather pattern for some time, so the loss of ice may begin to define the season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on February 29, 2020, 01:29:18 PM
I suspect that the Laxton Sea will materialize this year. The late University College London Professor late Seymour Laxton's seminal forecast of summer 2020 being the first year when the Arctic Ocean becomes ice free 'blue ocean' in summer time

The Laxton Sea (Blue Ocean Event) sits roughly in the mid-point of the early millennium 'early-bird forecasters for fast North Pole sea ice loss' against the forecasts of the IPCC and the Arctic Council.

Even as late as February 2007, the Arctic Council's "Arctic Impact Report" proposed the Arctic Ocean becoming ice free as late as year 2150 (which of course flied into face of FIPC's campaign of imminent event at the time).

Arctic Council produced two stage graphs with purpose to show two interim stages to the ice-free ocean. One of these suggested ice area for around 2040-2060 period, and another for 2070-2100 period. Only four to five months later (July-August 2007) the sea ice area loss approached this 2040-2060 graph with the Arctic Council abandoning its report. I got called to present FIPC point of view at RSE VII Symposium: Arctic - Mirror of Life where I was sitting on a press panel with Robert W Correll  (Arctic Council's lead author), Jane Lubchenko (then-to-be NOAA head), and Terry Callaghan http://www.rsesymposia.org/hbmore.php?catid=164&pcatid=162&thehbid=27

FIPC (Frozen Isthmuses' Protection Campaign of the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean, and myself) based our extrapolation of the rapid sea ice area shrinking on summers 2005, 2006 & 2007 which was a linear extrapolation to hit (at that given rate) to zero around 2010 - only if sea ice area reduction had continued shrinking on that 3-year decline rate, perhaps slightly accelerating). This was, of course, not looking at thickness and other complex issues which have become obvious.

Peter Wadham of Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group in the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge was perhaps the first person to raise concern for the shrinking ice body in the Arctic Ocean having observed a considerable thinning for years before the issue became visible on sea ice's spatial extent and stability. Already in 1990's Peter Wadhams appeared in the British newspapers pointing to considerable thinning in submarine upward sonar measurements taken throughout the Cold War as part of war games with the then USSR and then Russia. Peter Wadham's first ice free Arctic Ocean was forecast slightly later to FIPC date 2010, suggesting the summer 2012 in the forecast made towards the end of the first decade of the third millennium. (This made the full front page news on The First News newspaper at the time and appeared reported less prominently in other papers at the time in the UK.)

Wiesław Masłowski of Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California was third early bird at the time also suggesting early sea ice loss against the conventional views of the time. Though I do not have the exact dates for him, perhaps because his influence is in the US regions.

So, how the Laxton Sea materialises now? Perhaps, with the fringes melting really fast, followed by unstable and migratory Central Arctic ice pack that is increasingly tossed around and smashed by waves and weakened by warm temperatures. It is, of course, far too much said that persistent wind patterns, jet streams, and movement of depression systems and flow of warm air pan out.

My main concern for the Laxton Sea this summer would be its impact on north Greenland Ice Sheet and build up of water in moulins and crevasses and destabilzation of land ice post sea ice:
https://www.academia.edu/37157851/Our_Changing_Climate_in_Action_the_Risk_of_Global_Warming_and_the_Environmental_Damage_from_the_Rising_Ocean_Water_Table_Sustainable_Seas_Enquiry_Written_evidence_submitted_by_Veli_Albert_Kallio_FRGS_SSI0121_Ordered_to_be_published_23_May_2018_by_the_House_of_Commons

IPCC's very first date for the ice-free Arctic Ocean remains year 2030 (hence my statement of the Laxton Sea sitting on the mid-point of early birds 2010 and laggards earliest point at 2030).

"ice north of Greenland" With persistent lows over Barents the tidally enhanced flow into the arctic would increase, some water has to leave, i guess the shear zone is quite shallow and everthing above it is moving towards Fram, hence the unusual size of the area on the move. The more or less persistent high[mslp] on the Beaufort side would add to the impetus. It's hard to establish any current but once established a 'slime effect' come into play and until some other random event disturbs the flow it'll persist. If Wayne at eh2r is right we may be stuck with this weather pattern for some time, so the loss of ice may begin to define the season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 29, 2020, 03:02:16 PM
I would say that the early birds are those predicting an ice-free Arctic prior to 2030, and the laggards much later in the century.  Mid-century seems to be more average.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/when-will-all-the-ice-in-the-arctic-be-gone/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 29, 2020, 03:32:33 PM
I would say that the early birds are those predicting an ice-free Arctic prior to 2030

I surreptitiously recorded that question being posed at The Economist's 2013 Arctic Summit in Oslo. Of course the assorted learned speakers might have revised their opinions since then? However have a listen:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us/ice-free-summer-arctic-numbers
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on February 29, 2020, 04:24:14 PM
I would say that the early birds are those predicting an ice-free Arctic prior to 2030

I surreptitiously recorded that question being posed at The Economist's 2013 Arctic Summit in Oslo. Of course the assorted learned speakers might have revised their opinions since then? However have a listen:

https://soundcloud.com/water-connects-us/ice-free-summer-arctic-numbers

Yes, that was after the infamous 2012 Arctic melt.  I suspect that the learned have revised their opinions since - especially the prediction of 2014. 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 29, 2020, 07:12:22 PM
Last week ARCUS held a webinar on my favourite topic. “Ocean Waves in the New Arctic”, presented by Jim Thomson from the University of Washington.

A slightly less technical video featuring Jim Thomson and some big waves in the New Arctic:

https://youtu.be/Hb7l6kPkfbc
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 01, 2020, 02:21:27 AM
Passing the February leap day, we have now arrived to the start of the spring quarter, which means that the spring equinox is now only three weeks away - bringing the sun out of hiding on the North Pole, visible light images on the Arctic Ocean improving.  8)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on March 01, 2020, 11:08:07 AM
November 12 - February 29 (fast).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 01, 2020, 11:29:00 AM
Thanks Aluminium.

The state of the Russian side now, Kara to Laptev, is worrying.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 06:10:41 PM
Yep, the Russian side developing big holes.

Sunday to Saturday ice drift map.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 06:12:27 PM
7-day hindcast temperature anomalies, Sunday to Sunday

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 06:13:39 PM
Fram export via SAR. Sunday to Sunday.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Stephan on March 01, 2020, 07:04:20 PM
Oops...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on March 01, 2020, 08:54:38 PM
Not too long ago there was a discussion about the effect of lower albedo at this time of the year about 60N.

If you look at the attached image you shall see that the sun at Utquiagvik already now, from about 10:00 A.M. way farther north than that, it's around 70° N, has a significant effect as soon as only the slightest spot without snow is there to absorb the energy. Even that it's grey on top an the black part was snow covered as still is the part that does not get sunlight after 10:00 A.M. or is behind the construction that hosts the camera.

It's about what i tried to say back then. Where i grew up in the alps, even in January and almost 2000m above sea-level, once the wind blew the snow from the rocks, the snow melted in overdrive all around that snow-free location.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 02, 2020, 09:13:13 AM
Oops...
That's Good News, actually.

Unfortunately, it's offset by the unusually high temperatures over Eurasia.

There's also a lot of snow cover missing, in particular over Europe. 

Like others, I'm also concerned about what's happening in the Kara, and to a lesser extent, the Barents, as well as export of MYI out of the Fram.

To make me happy, I'd like to see those DMI temps 10C *below* normal.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on March 02, 2020, 09:45:38 AM
I took a look at Bremen, picture attached for 20200301. I looked at the previous years. Never have we ever had so much "red" and "yellow" in the Kara-Laptev region. The ice there is likely very fractured and thin and will go poof extremely quickly come May...I attach 2016/03/01 for comparison
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on March 02, 2020, 10:54:46 AM
I wrote a script that mines MASIES's data.

It takes the current area for each region and compares the area on today's date versus the decade mean for that date.

It also calculates the rate and direction of change in each area (growth or decline), by calculating the change between present day and 10-days ago.

 df2['ROC'][df2["Rate"] > 0.05] = 'Strong Growth'
    df2['ROC'][(df2['Rate'] > 0) & (df2['Rate'] < 0.05)] = 'Growth'
    df2['ROC'][df2['Rate'] == 0] = "Stable"
    df2['ROC'][(df2['Rate'] < 0) & (df2['Rate'] > -0.05)]= "Decline"
    df2['ROC'][df2['Rate'] < -0.05] = "Strong Decline"

Its supposed to be a summary of the regional data found here;

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

Heres the script, would be happy to take comments.

https://github.com/SimonF92/Arctic/blob/master/Arctic_Regions_Decadal.py

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 02, 2020, 11:26:30 AM
We just had the numbers in on our Belgian winter, and it was the third warmest on record, after 2007 and 2016. Is that sign of things to come this summer in the arctic? I still have plants that can't survive a -1°C temperature, and they're still flowering right now. So not even at night did it freeze in my garden, in the city of Antwerp. CRAZY!

My apologies for the Flemish, but there's no english translation for this article.

Quote
De voorbije weerkundige winter (december, januari en februari) had een algemene gemiddelde temperatuur van ongeveer 6,3 graden. Na 2007 en 2016 wordt het daarmee de op twee na warmste winter in bijna twee eeuwen, sinds het begin van de waarnemingen in Ukkel in 1833. In 2007 bedroeg de gemiddelde temperatuur 6,6 graden Celsius, 3 graden boven de normaalwaarde.

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/02/25/de-winters-in-belgie/
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: binntho on March 02, 2020, 12:13:11 PM
Brilliant!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 02, 2020, 12:16:26 PM
...
I think to put it in context Hefaistos, you need to think not necessarily about what's happening now, but where conditions will be in 3-4 weeks.

What is happening is setup, much like how much running room you have leading up to a broad jump.  By losing snow this early, and picking up what are modest but still significant amounts of solar energy means that considerably more energy will
(1) ... be captured directly at Arctic latitudes
(2) ... be available early in the melt season
(3) ... not be required for/buffered by local phase change (e.g. melting snow locally)
(4) ... indirectly permit more transport of heat to the Arctic from lower latitudes. (primarily via
          increased moisture)
...

That's why lots of bare ground at high latitudes is concerning, even before the equinox.
Right. I can also add (5) to the list: less snow cover "buffer" to resist melting season start.

By this, i mean that when some place say south of Finland has 0 cm snow cover or say 10 cm snow cover - while the average for the place is say 1 meter of snow cover, by March 1st, - then very little to zero heat is needed to have the place's surface to start absorbing sunlight as soon as the Sun starts to put any substantial amount of it in. When such a place is say few millions km2, this will warm up cyclone-scaled air masses in a matter of couple weeks or so; while normally, they'd remain on top of (slowly melting, but still largely white) snow-covered land. Means most outcoming radiation is simply reflected, i.e. short-wave; while in this "new normal", lots of outcoming radiation is long-wave (infra-red), thus greenhouse gases further add in even more heat to the air.

There certainly are some situations in Arctic and next to it when further increase of temperatures is slowed / halted by some strong negative feedbacks, but "little / no snow late winter and early spring" is one opposite case; positive feedbacks seem to strongly prevail.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 02, 2020, 10:51:24 PM
...
I think to put it in context Hefaistos, you need to think not necessarily about what's happening now, but where conditions will be in 3-4 weeks.
<snip>
Right. I can also add (5) to the list: less snow cover "buffer" to resist melting season start.
<snip>
There certainly are some situations in Arctic and next to it when further increase of temperatures is slowed / halted by some strong negative feedbacks, but "little / no snow late winter and early spring" is one opposite case; positive feedbacks seem to strongly prevail.

Agree.  In essence, we are shortening the "fuse", as well as increasing the size of the "charge" it is setting off.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 02, 2020, 11:55:41 PM
I took a look at Bremen, picture attached for 20200301. I looked at the previous years. Never have we ever had so much "red" and "yellow" in the Kara-Laptev region. The ice there is likely very fractured and thin and will go poof extremely quickly come May...

From a preservation of sea ice in the Arctic Basin point of view, I would much prefer to have thicker/more extensive ice in the Kara/Laptev than in the Bering. This is not good at all. 
 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on March 03, 2020, 01:12:12 AM
I took a look at Bremen, picture attached for 20200301. I looked at the previous years. Never have we ever had so much "red" and "yellow" in the Kara-Laptev region. The ice there is likely very fractured and thin and will go poof extremely quickly come May...

From a preservation of sea ice in the Arctic Basin point of view, I would much prefer to have thicker/more extensive ice in the Kara/Laptev than in the Bering. This is not good at all.

Apart from during most of February the Kara sea has been cold this winter so the ice should be thicker than some years. The concentration of the ice does not fully reflect on how thick it is, it might just be highly fractured because of the recent weather where it has been stormy with strong southerly windsbso no doubt some compaction going on aswell somewhat.

I don't think the ice around the Kara plays a huge part as it melts out anyways and sometimes the ice around Novaya zemlya gets seperated from the main pack like it did in 2018.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: ReverendMilkbone on March 03, 2020, 05:08:22 AM

[/quote]

Apart from during most of February the Kara sea has been cold this winter so the ice should be thicker than some years. The concentration of the ice does not fully reflect on how thick it is, it might just be highly fractured because of the recent weather where it has been stormy with strong southerly windsbso no doubt some compaction going on aswell somewhat.

I don't think the ice around the Kara plays a huge part as it melts out anyways and sometimes the ice around Novaya zemlya gets seperated from the main pack like it did in 2018.
[/quote]

IDK...looks like a slushy mess to me...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on March 03, 2020, 08:02:17 AM
We have 0.5 mln sq km of additional sea ice extent but also 4 mln sq km of the gray land where we expect to have the white snow this time of year. It's spring now and albedo is important
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Paul on March 03, 2020, 01:32:34 PM


Apart from during most of February the Kara sea has been cold this winter so the ice should be thicker than some years. The concentration of the ice does not fully reflect on how thick it is, it might just be highly fractured because of the recent weather where it has been stormy with strong southerly windsbso no doubt some compaction going on aswell somewhat.

I don't think the ice around the Kara plays a huge part as it melts out anyways and sometimes the ice around Novaya zemlya gets seperated from the main pack like it did in 2018.
[/quote]

IDK...looks like a slushy mess to me...
[/quote]

If/when the winds change direction and pushes the ice back towards the landmasses then the ice will look less thin and concentration will rise again. 

2017 had quite a retreat in the Kara sea during March but the cold weather returned and ice declined less quickly than in years like 2012 where the ice struggled to form all winter that year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 03, 2020, 04:48:08 PM
I'm curious... When you have the ice pack cracked up and smashed together like it is now, don't a lot of the ice slabs stick out deep underneath the ice pack? And would that cause that ice to melt out quickly with bottom melt?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on March 04, 2020, 09:12:33 PM
It's cold north of 80 latitude but warmer than average in the lower latitudes. Not a good pattern for the sea ice because the Fram export is high and the thick ice will leave anyway but the land snow is starting to melt more quickly
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 04, 2020, 11:53:15 PM
I'm curious... When you have the ice pack cracked up and smashed together like it is now, don't a lot of the ice slabs stick out deep underneath the ice pack? And would that cause that ice to melt out quickly with bottom melt?

Not certain if this is a full answer to your question FG, but have a read of this snippet taken from a recent blog from the MOSAiC page :

According to the sea-ice expert, “Over the past few months, we’ve been able to observe winter at the North Pole more consistently and precisely than ever before. The ice thickness has doubled to an average of 160 centimetres since December, which corresponds to a growth rate of roughly ten centimetres per week.”

In addition, with the aid of helicopter laser-scanner readings, Polarstern’s radar system, and buoys, the researchers were able to observe how the ice deformed, and channels opened and closed again. Thanks to the warming of the Arctic Ocean, smaller and thinner ice floes are becoming more common. Driven by the wind, they can collide and overlap, producing pack ice hummocks up to four metres tall. Since a great deal of their mass lies underwater, some hummocks are 20 to 30 metres thick – a phenomenon that now represents a challenge for the resupply icebreakers.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 05, 2020, 08:36:28 AM
It's cold north of 80 latitude but warmer than average in the lower latitudes. Not a good pattern for the sea ice because the Fram export is high and the thick ice will leave anyway but the land snow is starting to melt more quickly
I think that's the farthest below normal the 80N DMI graph has been in nearly 5 years.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 05, 2020, 05:44:08 PM
Since a great deal of their mass lies underwater, some hummocks are 20 to 30 metres thick
Wow! That's like little icebergs, something we discussed here last summer.
I think it's reasonable to assume that this deep ice will melt out more quickly with bottom melt? Stacked Ice also will leave spots with fewer ice, that'll melt out faster, creating open water.

Ice + storm = not good...

Thanks Niall!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on March 06, 2020, 11:14:57 PM
A strong 963 hPa cyclone is going to set up in several days. Huge polynyas could be open in the Laptev sea and ESS
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 07, 2020, 02:14:53 AM
A strong 963 hPa cyclone is going to set up in several days. Huge polynyas could be open in the Laptev sea and ESS
The ice is getting banged up at the frontend of what will probably become a serious melt season. Not looking good for the ice this year!

What's going on in the ESS? The ice is already seriously banged up there, and there seems to be a river of ice flowing all the way to the Bering strait. (I know it only seems that way)

https://go.nasa.gov/2PS7CFw
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 07:29:53 AM
One more day and I think we should start the melting season thread

It's not your call, Wherestheice!

You are contributing absolutely nothing of substance!

You are only cluttering the data thread every now and then even though you are asked not to do this!

Leave the data thread to the ones who actually contribute something!!!

It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: HapHazard on March 08, 2020, 09:10:23 AM
Couldn't agree more, BK.

I think there is a better than 50/50 chance we have seen the maximum. That's my take.

Anyone dare to disagree?  8)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 09:19:24 AM
Thanks, HapHazard.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 08, 2020, 02:05:54 PM
I must also apologise for cluttering the data thread. I'm new here, so I did not realise that casual discussion was inappropriate.

Out of interest, is there a place where casual discussion about sea ice area and extent data is appropriate? Is it here or somewhere else?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 02:14:35 PM
Thanks for your understanding, PA!

This is the right thread. And soon it's the 20/21 melting season thread.

If you want to comment on something specific from the data thread, hit the quote button there, copy the text out of the text field, and then come here (or the melting season thread) and paste it.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on March 08, 2020, 03:19:50 PM
Early spring in Eurasia. Snow cover will retreat fast according to the forecast. Later, lack of snow may accelerate the melting season but winter may strike back.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 03:45:08 PM
Your weekly updates. Ice drift map first for a change.

CAA is remarkably static. The low winter temperatures in this area are showing.

Polarstern continues its drift towards Fram after a day with handbrakes on.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 03:46:05 PM
7-day mean temperature anomalies.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 08, 2020, 03:46:48 PM
Fram export via SAR.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Wildcatter on March 09, 2020, 12:51:46 AM
Nullschool 3-13

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-171.519,70.953 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-171.519,70.953)

Nullschool 3-13 ~9 hours later, with clouds

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-168.000,62.477 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1800Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-62.25,81.29,461/loc=-168.000,62.477)

(In the box in the lower left, you can adjust settings, the << >> arrows under "Control" are hour and day selectors, TCW = cloud water)

Influx of heat + wind and clouds coming over Bering, moving from Chukchi to Beaufort. Kara also covered with clouds and winds. Bering really gets hit starting on 3-12.

The ice just north of Greenland looks like it's going to get a bit of a rough start, with winds picking up there and along the Lincoln + even parts of CAA on 3-10. The winds, in general, look like they could really strain the ice. Looks like they're going to try their hardest to shove the East CAB into the Barents/Fram/Greenland Sea.

It's hard to say if we've hit "max extent" already, if you see the temps + wind. There's also going to be cloud cover which can usually skew extent numbers a bit. Regardless, I think we can all agree that this setup is noticeably worse than any temporary gain in "extent" will be.

The +NAO/+AO this season has led to these big cyclones all winter season, except for a small break in late Feb/Early March. Now we see not only Atlantic cyclones entering the Arctic, but a Pacific cyclone that gathers steam in the Sea of Okhotsk and rolls over into the Arctic. I've seen differing projections on the NAO for the 2nd half of March, so not sure if the Atlantic portion keeps the same cycle. But, in the short-term, the ice is about to get hit from both sides on the onset of melt season.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 09, 2020, 02:16:49 AM
I was just about to post the same thing. Not looking good there in the Bering strait. It's gonna get its pipes cleaned. Look at all the energy that's entering the arctic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-44.82,94.80,1323/loc=-168.957,66.088
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 09, 2020, 02:32:46 PM
I was just about to post the same thing. Not looking good there in the Bering strait. It's gonna get its pipes cleaned. Look at all the energy that's entering the arctic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-44.82,94.80,1323/loc=-168.957,66.088

I agree. It looks like a Pacific is about to take a beating. However, that wind has to go somewhere and that somewhere seems to be the Atlantic.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-9.26,79.92,1323/loc=-2.813,79.927 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/0300Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-9.26,79.92,1323/loc=-2.813,79.927)

Maybe the Atlantic sea ice extent will continue growing while Pacific starts to melt early?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 09, 2020, 02:47:50 PM
Don't forget the sea temperatures there, PA. If the ice is getting pushed south into warm waters, it will just melt away.

Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 09, 2020, 07:24:12 PM
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and call peak ice. Just look at these storms that'll be hitting both sides of the ice pack in a few days from now. Surely that'll make an end to the ice growth, no?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1746/loc=-130.573,74.542
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 09, 2020, 10:02:33 PM
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and call peak ice. Just look at these storms that'll be hitting both sides of the ice pack in a few days from now. Surely that'll make an end to the ice growth, no?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1746/loc=-130.573,74.542
You may well be right, but I'm not quite ready to call it.

The weather is suggestive, but clouds will both help and harm at the same time.  At higher latitudes it will keep heat in.  At lower, it will keep burgeoning sun out.  Outcomes will also be affected by the payload - how much moisture is transported along with it's latent heat, to where.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 09, 2020, 10:40:02 PM
The weather is suggestive, but clouds will both help and harm at the same time.  At higher latitudes it will keep heat in.  At lower, it will keep burgeoning sun out.  Outcomes will also be affected by the payload - how much moisture is transported along with it's latent heat, to where.
I agree, but I don't think the temperature really matters. I'm talking about ice destruction and stacking because of wind. The question will be if it's still cold enough to refreeze all that open water that these storms will create.

Don't forget that the ice in the Chukchi sea will be very weak because of all the inflow of warm water from the pacific during winter. I'm curious to see what'll happen there. I think it's gonna be carnage.

I'm almost up to a full year of watching the ice in the arctic now, so this month is still new to me. How unusual are these storms?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 10, 2020, 11:07:25 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2020:
     14,296,768 km2, an increase of 15,184 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

Ice is increasing again (especially in the area department). I still thing it's reasonably safe to call maximum, but bigger surprises have happened.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: SimonF92 on March 10, 2020, 11:23:53 AM
Today's regional data (from here https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 10, 2020, 11:24:00 AM
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.

I guess the question at the moment is if the Atlantic water is warm enough to melt the export away quickly enough. If not, a big increase can still happen.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 10, 2020, 12:42:19 PM
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.

I guess the question at the moment is if the Atlantic water is warm enough to melt the export away quickly enough. If not, a big increase can still happen.
The melting is strong in this one...

https://go.nasa.gov/2veIFgA
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on March 10, 2020, 02:25:21 PM
Seems, snow will be halved in Eurasia in 5 days. Spring is far ahead average.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Aluminium on March 11, 2020, 01:55:44 PM
February 27 - March 10.

2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg191610.html#msg191610).
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on March 11, 2020, 02:06:44 PM
Thanks Aluminium! I really like the year to year comparisons you created.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 11, 2020, 02:15:02 PM
The melting is strong in this one...

Agreed!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 11, 2020, 05:28:17 PM
I haven't made one of these in a long time, but I couldn't just let these storms pass by without one. Hope you like it!

Last 24h + Five day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Neven on March 11, 2020, 08:58:56 PM
15 MB is a bit much for a GIF, FG... Can you make it smaller somehow?

Edit: Thanks!
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Pavel on March 12, 2020, 09:36:23 AM
The spring is coming half month earlier than usuall. There is more snow depth in the higher latitudes but it may start to melt earlier
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 09:57:46 AM
I haven't made one of these in a long time

Just a tip, Freegrass: If you scale it down first and then optimize, you'll likely get a smaller file size than if you do it the other way around. If you already knew, just ignore me. ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 12, 2020, 12:03:17 PM
I haven't made one of these in a long time

Just a tip, Freegrass: If you scale it down first and then optimize, you'll likely get a smaller file size than if you do it the other way around. If you already knew, just ignore me. ;)
The problem is that it's 48 frames. It's a lot of information. The best way to do this is really to make those videos again, and then upload them to Youtube or somewhere else. The problem with Youtube is that uploading it there completely destroys the quality. So I need to find a better way to do this. Maybe I'll just upload the file into a folder and then share the file.

But don't worry! I'm not gonna make daily video's like this again. I'm just gonna do it with special weather events. I'm getting ready to move back to SE-Asia, to go back into the temple and meditate...Time to find some peace in this crazy world...

Edit: That GIF was 2Mb and very small, autorunning. So I replaced it with a larger 2Mb video file. I won't be posting these videos daily again, so I hope a 2Mb video file from time to time isn't a problem for anyone. Please don't reply to this message here! Send me a PM if you have any comments. Thanks.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 12, 2020, 02:20:21 PM
VISHOP is back up.

Loss of -4400 km^2 on March 10th.
Loss of -5667 km^2 on March 11th.

Current extent 14,286,701 km^2.

One more day of losses and I think it will be time to call maximum. Are others in agreement?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 12, 2020, 04:08:12 PM
Count me in agreement, PragmaticAntithesis.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 04:15:38 PM
If it's a century drop, count me in as well. :P
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 12, 2020, 04:17:46 PM
I think we'll see a little growth for one more day before carnage kicks in. So I say lets do it! It's already melting in some places, isn't it?  ;D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 06:45:29 PM
Here are some graphs telling me the max might not be in yet.

Edit: 600 milliseconds and not a millisecond more, B. C.! ;)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: be cause on March 12, 2020, 09:06:13 PM
could you slow your graphics a bit .. please bl .. b.c.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 10:01:45 PM
Freegrass, i think B.C. meant my GIF. I've already changed it to a slower going one. :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on March 12, 2020, 10:24:27 PM
Has anyone notices that there is a large "valley" in the Fram strait in the DMI thickness map? If that's accurate then the ice near the pole could be unusually weak this year.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fsea%2FCICE_map_thick_LA_EN_20200311.png&hash=4275cdc06117ae13f3c3ab398376d7c6)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on March 12, 2020, 10:56:09 PM
Here are some graphs telling me the max might not be in yet.


You may be correct.  Over the past two decades, 14 years have seen a peak prior to this date.  In ten of those years, the ice grew to exceed that peak, while the other four resulted in a secondary, but smaller peak.  The temperature data north of 80 suggest further growth.  Too early to call a max.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Wildcatter on March 13, 2020, 05:32:22 AM
Extent is now down about 180k from it's peak.

Cracks showing along coasts of Bering on both sides, up ESS and down Chukchi and Beaufort. Cracks + chunks peeling off coasts in ESS and Laptev.

Okhotsk ice detaching and looks like a bunch of rubble, Hudson looks like it's starting to get dinged up.

With the forecast, I'd be surprised if we passed the former peak extent, even with the cold in the Barents + Fram/Greenland Sea (the killing fields) and dispersion, drift.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 13, 2020, 07:18:28 AM
Has anyone notices that there is a large "valley" in the Fram strait in the DMI thickness map? If that's accurate then the ice near the pole could be unusually weak this year.
That looks so scary... Think away all the blue, and what we lost last year, and there won't be much ice left... There's also no "arm" of thick ice protecting the CAP in the Chukchi sea, so the inflow of hot pacific water will penetrate deep into the CAP this year.

And we've already got storms destroying a lot of ice right now. So I'm gonna go on record in saying that 2020 will be a lot worse than 2012.

The only unknown this year is the impact of lower CO2 emissions because of the crisis. But that'll probably be insignificant ...
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 13, 2020, 07:56:26 AM
The only unknown this year is the impact of lower CO2 emissions because of the crisis. But that'll probably be insignificant ...

It is worth noting that sun-dimming aerosols being removed from the atmosphere will likely cause a temperature increase before we see any significant cooling caused by the lowered CO2.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 13, 2020, 08:00:57 AM
Indeed! It takes years/decades for CO2 to unfold its full potential.

Within days/weeks the sun-dimming aerosols are washed out of the atmosphere.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 13, 2020, 08:30:16 AM
It is worth noting that sun-dimming aerosols being removed from the atmosphere will likely cause a temperature increase before we see any significant cooling caused by the lowered CO2.
I completely forgot about that. That is so true! And not only that, 9-11 showed that less air travel also increases the temperature.

Do we dare to say BOE?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 13, 2020, 11:10:49 AM
Do we dare to say BOE?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on March 13, 2020, 12:56:00 PM
This winter was already like 2006/7, so I had thought that things would get serious during summer. Then I saw the state of the ice from the Laptev to the Kara. Then came global aerosol collapse.

Arctic Ice probably needs a miracle to avoid the bullet this year
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 13, 2020, 01:25:28 PM
This winter was already like 2006/7, so I had thought that things would get serious during summer. Then I saw the state of the ice from the Laptev to the Kara. Then came global aerosol collapse.

Arctic Ice probably needs a miracle to avoid the bullet this year
I don’t think the BOE bullet will hit, but I think it will come much closer this year.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: RikW on March 13, 2020, 02:02:58 PM
If Corona keeps going on as it does now, i'd see a huge economic slow-down coming months, especially in production facilities (too much people sick, no work@home options) and air-travel (travel restrictions to prevent spreading). Thus much lower aerosols, much higher temperatures during melt season. A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months. And we need an extraordinary melting season for blue ocean. We have the ingredients this year that could trigger such a season. But I'd say chances are still low for that to happen.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 13, 2020, 03:27:17 PM
A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months.

That would pull us over the 2oC threshold.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 13, 2020, 03:42:41 PM
A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months.

That would pull us over the 2oC threshold.
A 1°C increase in global temperatures would be an increase in the arctic of around 3°C? In some very sick way, I do hope it happens this year. The world needs a good scare it seems before they wake up. Hopefully the world will come together now to fight the virus, and stay together to fight climate change. If we do go above 2°C, that should be scary enough. But I doubt that this will happen.

A gap has opened up in the Chukchi sea.
https://go.nasa.gov/2vi6iEQ
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: The Walrus on March 13, 2020, 05:10:00 PM
If Corona keeps going on as it does now, i'd see a huge economic slow-down coming months, especially in production facilities (too much people sick, no work@home options) and air-travel (travel restrictions to prevent spreading). Thus much lower aerosols, much higher temperatures during melt season. A semi-sudden world-wide temperature increase of 1 degrees because of lower aerosols would surprise me, but that would probably do weird things with weather if it is for several months. And we need an extraordinary melting season for blue ocean. We have the ingredients this year that could trigger such a season. But I'd say chances are still low for that to happen.

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 13, 2020, 05:43:05 PM
2020 Lower Polar Vortex shrank by 8.5 million square kilometers compared to 2012 , 2020 has smallest area every year since

Quote
~The lower in altitude Polar Vortex area right above surface of Earth is warming fast
~ Even compared to 2016,  El-Nino driven warmest year in history
~It is unquestionably clear,  warming at the core of the vortex is from over all thinner sea ice

Link >> https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2020/03/2020-lower-polar-vortex-shrank-by-85.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: philopek on March 13, 2020, 08:01:49 PM
Perhaps a few more things to consider:

a) Solar minimum has been reached, new max expected for 2024/25, that's not that far out hence the increase curve should be steep.

https://electroverse.net/the-sun-has-been-spotless-for-224-days-in-2019/

b) Above 80N temps at this time of the year have ZERO impact on extent development, contrary to what was said upthread. The Periphery is warming up quickly and the snow cover is low and I doubt that the March-Sun allows for significant cooling below 65N other than intermittent cold and warmth that is wind/weather driven.

If we keep in mind that last years second lowest was reach during the year with the lowest number of sun-spots in a long time, not only due to the minimum of the cycle but also compared to many previous cycles, we could be in for some nasty surprises even seen under the pretense that not much good can be expected anyway.

This in addition to what was already mentioned up-thread
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2020, 09:08:53 PM
Do we dare to say BOE?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
Attached is a graph of the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Monthly Averages since 1979 and the deviations from the linear trend.

You will see that the maximum -ve departure from the trend was in 2012 at just over 1.5 million KM2. 2nd was 2007 with an anomaly of -1.2 million km2.

A BOE (using BOE defined as sea ice extent of 1 million km2) would require melting of about 3 million km2 below the trend value for 2020 of about 4 million Km2, double the previous maximum deviation.

Data is such a bummer
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 13, 2020, 09:50:56 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb and say no. A BOE would require extent to be ~4Msqkm below the new normal come September, which I don't see happening even if we have a brutal melt season. Variability caused by weather is usually on the order of <1Msqkm.
Attached is a graph of the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Monthly Averages since 1979 and the deviations from the linear trend.

You will see that the maximum -ve departure from the trend was in 2012 at just over 1.5 million KM2. 2nd was 2007 with an anomaly of -1.2 million km2.

Whoops. I defined 'new normal' as the 2010's average instead of using the linear trend, and I forgot that BOEs are <1Msqm rather than no ice at all. At least I got the right idea that year-on-year extent variability is still significantly less than the actual extent?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 13, 2020, 11:18:27 PM
Isn't volume the big problem Gerontocrat? What I see on that ice thickness image is a lot of thin ice. So isn't it possible that the ice is so thin now, that we could see a big collapse in area?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 14, 2020, 12:47:33 AM
Isn't volume the big problem Gerontocrat? What I see on that ice thickness image is a lot of thin ice. So isn't it possible that the ice is so thin now, that we could see a big collapse in area?

According to PIOMAS's volume trends (see attached), a true BOE (no ice at all) is just over 2 standard deviations below what one would expect. Very unlikely, but not impossible. Also worth noting is that the graph doesn't seem to swing wildly (only 9 swings of >1σ, 5 of which were consecutive zig-zagging, no swings of >2σ), so 2019's volume being almost exactly on the trend line seems to bode well for now.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2020, 10:36:03 AM
<snip>
A gap has opened up in the Chukchi sea.
https://go.nasa.gov/2vi6iEQ

Not sure about the rest of it, but while not atypical it's a new phenomena and likely symptomatic of just how fragile the pack is.

2017 looked very similar but more severe like it had been developing longer.

2013 had a crack, 2011 had a smaller gap, not as well developed.

It should be thick land-fast ice.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2020, 10:44:26 AM
<snip>

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714

Disagree.

CO2 emmissions falling wouldn't cause that kind of pause.  You still have approximately the same  CO2 concentration, and small twitches of a few PPM aren't going to trigger dramatic year over year variations in climate.  The differences in forcing are too small.

It would have to be something else, quite probably unrelated to the change in fossil fuel consumption.  I think the first place I would look would be ENSO, and after that, precipitation patterns.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on March 14, 2020, 11:07:13 AM
It's a bit too cloudy to tell but there doesn't appear to be much sign of refreeze yet on the open leads east of Wrangel Island.
Chukchi Sea, https://go.nasa.gov/3aMQDfY (contrast),mar14, uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, feb13 inset.
click for full resolution
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 11:53:28 AM
<snip>

I think the opposite will occur.  During the last recession, the decrease in travel and consumption resulted in CO2 emissions falling 11%.    While some claim that the flattening of the temperature curve during this timeframe was just noise in the data, the timing corresponds with the global recession, and the sharp increase thereafter with the global expansion. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8714
Even if CO2 emissions fall, CO2 ppm in the atmosphere will increase, but by less.
Add to that the real possibility that parts of the land and ocean carbon sinks are failing, so less CO2 emissions at least partially offset by lower CO2 sequesteration.

Disagree.

CO2 emmissions falling wouldn't cause that kind of pause.  You still have approximately the same  CO2 concentration, and small twitches of a few PPM aren't going to trigger dramatic year over year variations in climate.  The differences in forcing are too small.

It would have to be something else, quite probably unrelated to the change in fossil fuel consumption.  I think the first place I would look would be ENSO, and after that, precipitation patterns.
A fall in CO2 emissions merely reduces the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2 ppm.
Add to that the real possibility that parts of the land and ocean carbon sinks are beginning to fail, meaning less of the CO2 emissions are sequestered.

Arctic Sea Ice is on a downward path to oblivion, the only question is how steep is that path.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: El Cid on March 14, 2020, 02:21:12 PM
I agree with jdallen. Even a significant fall in Co2 emissions won't change anything, as Co2's "half-life" is very long. Aerosols and the cloud-effect from contrails will dissipate in a few days and cause warming immediately as was proven after 9/11.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 02:56:07 PM
So we also now have 2, two, "2020 Melting Season" threads.

Just been reading a novel with old military history stuff - including the term "going off half-cocked".
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 14, 2020, 03:42:24 PM
Svalbard, March 13th:
The last time there was this much sea ice around Svalbard on this day of the year was 1998, with 532,969 sq km. That was the 3rd highest in our 54 year record, and this year is only exceeded by, in ascending order, 1989, 1969, 1979, 1977, 1998, 1997 and 1978

This article  (https://www.hi.no/hi/nyheter/2020/januar/barentshavet-har-blitt-kjoligere-det-flytter-iskantsonen-lengre-sor) states that the Barents Sea has become cooler because the water coming in with the Norwegian Atlantic current, which is the continuation of the Gulf Stream, has been cooler.

Trend has been upwards but in the last 5 years have been cooler.

Researcher Randi Ingvaldsen puts it down to natural variation.

Ocean temperatures in the Barents Sea vary naturally. That is, the temperatures go up and down over time.

- It is well known that the Barents Sea has become much warmer over the last 40 years. But in recent years we have seen a decline, and that is part of natural fluctuations that will always be present

- This does not change that a continuous global temperature rise raises the temperature curve, so that both the highest and the lowest temperatures are generally higher than before.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: uniquorn on March 14, 2020, 06:21:34 PM
Quote
This article  (https://www.hi.no/hi/nyheter/2020/januar/barentshavet-har-blitt-kjoligere-det-flytter-iskantsonen-lengre-sor) states that the Barents Sea has become cooler
An interesting article, do you think it refers to surface temperature or an average over depth? It says temperatures but not which.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on March 14, 2020, 06:32:38 PM
The Norwegian Current (also known as the Norwegian Coastal Current) is a water current that flows northeasterly along the Atlantic coast of Norway at depths of between 50 and 100 metres through the Barents Sea Opening into the Barents Sea.

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on March 14, 2020, 06:44:36 PM
It's a bit too cloudy to tell but there doesn't appear to be much sign of refreeze yet on the open leads east of Wrangel Island.
Chukchi Sea, https://go.nasa.gov/3aMQDfY (contrast),mar14, uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, feb13 inset.
click for full resolution

It has been quite warm in this area the last day (and will stay warm too). It's even possible we might see some surface melt during the day.

(https://i.imgur.com/fGb0UQu.png)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 14, 2020, 07:04:53 PM
Speaking of melting, the 2020 melting season thread is open BTW.

Shouldn't we all switch there now?

Link >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.0.html
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: grixm on March 14, 2020, 07:19:56 PM
Speaking of melting, the 2020 melting season thread is open BTW.

Shouldn't we all switch there now?

Link >> https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.0.html

Feels a bit early still, and the thread hasn't been made a sticky, but I guess I will change if I post about melting.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: blumenkraft on March 14, 2020, 07:40:57 PM
Alright! :)
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 14, 2020, 09:25:10 PM

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.

The article didnt say at what depth but I'd agree with you Kassy that it is an average of depths between 50m and 200m.

I'm not a big fan of answers like "natural variabilty".

I expect the current very positive AO is working to keep the sea surface temperatures cool but would this be seen at 50m to 200m depth ?

Then there is the AMOC. Is this an indication of a weakened AMOC and transport of Atlantic water at these high lattitudes ?

Another possibility is this a response to shifting and melting of pack ice towards the Atlantic side. So much ice melted out especially in the summer of 2016. Maybe this left a legacy at depth and started this recent downward trend? 
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: oren on March 14, 2020, 10:26:56 PM
Note to Neven: please make the new melting season thread sticky. Looking at extent and area numbers, the freezing season is over.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 14, 2020, 11:40:06 PM

So between 50 and 100 m and up i guess.

The article didnt say at what depth but I'd agree with you Kassy that it is an average of depths between 50m and 200m.

I'm not a big fan of answers like "natural variabilty".

I expect the current very positive AO is working to keep the sea surface temperatures cool but would this be seen at 50m to 200m depth ?

Then there is the AMOC. Is this an indication of a weakened AMOC and transport of Atlantic water at these high lattitudes ?

Another possibility is this a response to shifting and melting of pack ice towards the Atlantic side. So much ice melted out especially in the summer of 2016. Maybe this left a legacy at depth and started this recent downward trend?
I was immediately thinking about the slowdown of the AMOC as well. Could it also be that the meltwater from Greenland is cooling the Atlantic water down that's flowing into the Greenland and Barents sea?
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: kassy on March 15, 2020, 06:43:59 PM
The article has a graph showing this is a trend over the last 5 years or so. I guess we will have to settle for natural variability any way. Basically it just means the Barents ice edge moves further south.

The amount of heat flowing into the Barents Sea affects how much of the sea area is covered by ice. The ice edge has moved south since 2016.

So this is a relatively slow effect and not cause by anything happening now.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: jdallen on March 16, 2020, 04:58:02 AM
Another drop today in extent, now around 200K below the max back a week ago.

I think we've hit max, and the melt season has started.  Gerontocrat thinks so too....
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Juan C. García on March 19, 2020, 05:10:38 AM
With today's drop of -65,947 km2 (ADS-NIPR-VISHOP-JAXA ASI), I think it is save to say that the 2019/2020 freezing season is over.

Today's extent (March 18th) is  238,079 km2 under the max of 14,447,641 km2 that happened on March 3rd.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 19, 2020, 09:32:40 AM
Thanks Juan.
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 19, 2020, 12:09:04 PM
Accepting that the max is over, according to the NSIDC extent trailing 5 day mean data, the max of 15.05 million km2 was reached on March 5th.

This is the 11th lowest max in the series going back to 1979.

In order of lowest:

2017
2018
2016
2015
2011
2006
2007
2019
2005
2014
2020
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Freegrass on March 19, 2020, 01:21:01 PM
Accepting that the max is over, according to the NSIDC extent trailing 5 day mean data, the max of 15.05 million km2 was reached on March 5th.
I called it on March 9. Not too bad for an amateur like me...  ;D
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Jontenoy on March 19, 2020, 06:19:04 PM
Interesting that 2012 was not in the 10 lowest maxes and then produced the lowest minimum !
Title: Re: The 2019/2020 freezing season
Post by: Niall Dollard on March 19, 2020, 10:18:37 PM
Interesting that 2012 was not in the 10 lowest maxes and then produced the lowest minimum !

And also that 2013 was not in the top ten either. Only 6 months or so earlier and ice was at its lowest extent on record.

However I am not surprised that 2017 had the lowest max. Of all the satellite images of the Arctic  since then,  I still consider the ice was in its worst condition in late Summer 2016. It was very spread out and full of holes. The 2016/2017 freezing season then was very slow to start and temperatures remained relatively mild over the Arctic Basin.