Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 03:12:29 PM

Title: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 03:12:29 PM
I will be posting my Nullschool animations here from now on.
I hope you Like Them! And don't be shy to post your own!

Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-09 09:00 UTC
2019-09-14 06:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: blumenkraft on September 09, 2019, 03:27:12 PM
That's a good idea, Freegrass. :)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 03:40:16 PM
It's difficult to do good for everyone, so this is an elegant solution.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 07:15:54 PM
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water Forecast
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: stjuuv on September 09, 2019, 07:39:09 PM
Thank you for these, Freegrass!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 07:43:52 PM
You're welcome! Glad you like them!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 09, 2019, 09:48:33 PM
Wind @ 250hPa Forecast
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: petm on September 10, 2019, 04:03:19 AM
Good job on making this thread Freegrass. :)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 08:10:15 AM
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 08:58:21 AM
Wind + Temp @ Surface

2019-09-10 03:00 UTC
2019-09-15 00:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 10, 2019, 09:59:08 AM
I also thank you, Freegrass, but I'm also interested in hindcasts. Perhaps this is an appropriate place for me to explain why -- without spawning an OT clog in the main thread where angels fear to tread? (Speaking of chatter: I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.)

With my production technique (using a Photoshop doc to stack up screengrabs -- what the hell) I'm seeing a lot more volatility in hindcasts than might be expected. I mean, this is supposed to be past-tense, but it hasn't settled down, evidently, because data assimilation continues for awhile.

That was my impression, but I wanted proof. So I put together the following to illustrate the jitter of data assimilation -- with 24 hours between screengrab runs (the more recent, with the same timestamp, appearing second). Sorry this one has to be so jittery.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecast Graphics
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 10, 2019, 10:07:51 AM
Oops, I got so relaxed in your nice den here, Freegrass, I forgot to say why I like hindcasts. Watching the smoothed-out choreography of the hindcast versus the toggling, increasingly uncertain-looking movement quality of the forecast... that's what interests me. When I realized that Dorian was playing the same guessing game we've seen in the Arctic all year, I wanted to find out more about how models work, and whether chaotic factors are noticeably rising.

Thanks for listening!
Title: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 10:48:34 AM
I must say I am continually blown away that technology at the level of Nullschool is freely available. The more I learn about atmospheric science, the more amazed I am.
Thanks for the kind words and your contributions Aleph_Null! Keep them coming! I've been using Nullschool for many years now, and I love it. I prefer these visuals over raw data any day. That's probably because I'm not a real scientist, and I'm pretty sure there are many more people like me on this forum; People without a masters degree that just want to know more about the climate.

Did you know Nullschool is an open source Github project?
https://github.com/cambecc/earth

I just changed the topic title to "Nullschool Animations", that way it includes forecasts, hindcasts, and specials. Or do you have another suggestion?

Again, thank you for adding to this thread! There are so many possibilities with Nullschool that I'm sure we can turn this into a valuable place.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 11:37:19 AM
Animation of intense 2019 Siberian wildfires, visualized as carbon monoxide concentrations.

This two month time-lapse animation shows carbon monoxide surface concentration over Siberia, as modeled by GEOS-5, between June 1st and Aug 23rd, 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V2ZC5CQpSM
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 11:41:20 AM
Time-lapse animation of 2019 Amazon rainforest fires visualized with carbon monoxide.

This animation is a one month time-lapse of carbon monoxide surface concentration, as modeled by GEOS-5. Fires begin to intensify on Aug 5th, 2019.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kL7xJXyMfXU
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 10, 2019, 12:11:13 PM
That'll do, thanks. It looks like you're starting to flex your knuckles and dress up the place with fabulous new designs, now that you have some room to work!

The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.

Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires... oh: I see something very similar in Chem mode.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 12:49:57 PM
The daily pulse of smoke and flame in both of those time-lapse offerings is something I haven't seen before. It looks like respiration. I never imagined massive wildfires could seem so organic, like something happening in a petri dish. Deeply shocking.
That's actually day and night that you are seeing. The trees must be the ones doing the breathing.

Quote
Now I'm wondering what Nullschool thinks of those fires.
That animation was posted by Cameron Beccario on his twitter feed, the man who created Nullschool. https://twitter.com/cambecc

I have to figure out now how to make such smooth animations. They're so well made.
I'm combining GIMP with EZgif now. I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 01:40:21 PM
Wind @ Surface Forecast

2019-09-10 09:00 UTC
2019-09-15 06:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 10, 2019, 02:55:44 PM
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.0.html)" thread?
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 10, 2019, 03:44:42 PM
I really need to learn more about GIMP, and how to create great animations with it.

You may wish to peruse the "Creating Animated GIFs (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1259.0.html)" thread?
Thanks Jim! That's a lot of information. The A-team really went for it...
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 10, 2019, 05:11:42 PM
The A-team really went for it...

I came across this interesting reply in the animated gifs thread:

One of these days I'm going to read through this thread again from start to finish, and will then hopefully fully understand what it is you guys are doing with what, and maybe then I can be a target user who is able to express what he needs.

Sorry for not understanding already. My head is too full. I know you're doing awesome stuff, grade A citizen science.

At the moment, I'm having similar difficulties. Perhaps I'll remain a modest admirer of such works for now. I just hope not to come out with a meteorological projection as mistaken as the Sharpie Over Alabama (wasn't that a Billie Holliday song?)! My "target user" is me. I just make what I want to see, selfish as hell.

Incidentally, Freegrass: Thanks again for reminding folks of this thread in the main thread. I'll do the same from now on. No point sprucing up the place if we never get any company.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 01:26:21 AM
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

2019-09-10 21:00 UTC
2019-09-15 18:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 01:54:38 AM
Wind + Temp @ 1000hPa

2019-09-10 21:00 UTC
2019-09-15 18:00 UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: oren on September 11, 2019, 03:22:15 AM
This thread is a good idea.
In any case, better a smaller audience but that of of willing users who choose to participate and appreciate the effort.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: binntho on September 11, 2019, 06:25:55 AM
This thread is a good idea.
In any case, better a smaller audience but that of of willing users who choose to participate and appreciate the effort.
+1

I'm one of the regulars and appreciate the effort!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 10:42:57 AM
Thanks for the support guys! Like I said before, I think this is an elegant solution. Maybe a smaller crowd indeed, but that can always change. I love doing this. I learn a lot from it. And it's one of my little contributions to the climate change fight.

I'll do my best to make the graphics better! Feel free to add your own, and I'm always open to suggestions.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 02:09:41 PM
Wind + Temp @ Surface

2019-09-11 09:00 UTC
2019-09-16 06:00 UTC

I'm making the GIFs now completely with GIMP, and I think they already look a little bit better, no? They are certainly smaller in size. I just need to figure out now how to make the transitions smoother between the frames. I still use EZGif to convert the GIF to an MP4.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on September 11, 2019, 05:15:13 PM
When I was posting videos, I used ffmpeg to convert GIFs to MP4s. I just took a quick look on Google and there are all kind of options for smoothing videos by interpolating frames.

https://www.google.com/search?q=ffmpeg+smoothing
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 11, 2019, 05:16:27 PM
I just need to figure out now how to make the transitions smoother between the frames.

Attached please find a brief test of EZGif's crossfade (I always convert to mp4 before downloading), with frame-delay set to 100 and crossfade-delay set to 20. This is the first ten frames of my jitter test, above, slowed down a lot.

I seem to recall attaining a BA degree (fwiw!) in painting & animation. Somehow I gravitate to the non-lucrative pursuits. At any rate, perhaps it's interesting that my current focus (the swirly suites of IWPD) calls for an intentionally jerky look (because I want to scrutinize each 3-hour guess as it crosses my screen), while you aspire to the naturalistic feeling of the unforgettable COsc videos you posted. We both explore graphics to understand how weather works, but from different angles, at the moment -- with regard to crossfade, at least!

Note: This test of ten frames with crossfade makes a larger file than 50 frames without.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 06:02:04 PM
Thanks for all the help! I just found this software. Is anyone familiar with it? I'm gonna play around with it a little to see what I can do with this. I've never done video editing though. This is all new for me, but it's always good to learn new things!

OpenShot is an award-winning free and open-source video editor for Linux, Mac, and Windows.
https://www.openshot.org/
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 09:16:47 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 11, 2019, 09:57:22 PM
On guessing games and interpretation of data animation

The architects of the weather-data detection, assimilation, and prediction frameworks culminating in GFS & EURO might bristle at the suggestion that theirs, the most expensive and sophisticated stretch to play the odds in human history (not to mention humankind's premiere scientific accomplishment, imho), amounts to a guessing game. A super smart guessing game: a half-dozen interlocking differential equations conceived as an impossible dream by Vilhelm Bjerknes -- how could this work when it takes an army of human "computers" more than a year to figure out tomorrow's weather?

Somehow it all came together, with a little help from supercomputers, and from visionaries wild enough to see what happens if you fly into the eye of a hurricane. That's Harry Wexler, who bestowed my mantra: "The atmosphere is indivisible." From this mantra emerges all understanding. It'll take you clear through Climate Science to general enlightenment. Everyone's allowed one foolish hope. I've got dibs on that one...

Regarding the Arctic this summer, I hear consternation about continual disagreement between models in the 2019 melting-season thread. (Lurkers like me have been kindly re-christened "new ice" -- I don't know if this level of forecasting churn is unusual or not.) Lurking Dorian raises the question: given that a model's basic function is to project forward from past events, is it reasonable to expect a model capable of predicting the unprecedented?

So there are a couple of things my swirly suite of IWPD animations are meant to keep an eye on: the health of the planet, and how well the calculus of GFS holds up today, under apparently burgeoning chaotic factors. In particular, these animations intend to sharpen questions about the model to inquiries such as "What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 10:41:23 PM
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: philopek on September 11, 2019, 10:47:39 PM
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...

If that's a serious assumption/conclusion it has probably taken a lot of free grass LOL

Hoping for your sense of humor?
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 10:51:36 PM
If that's a serious assumption/conclusion it has probably taken a lot of free grass LOL

Hoping for your sense of humor?
No, I'm serious. I did watch that documentary, so I know it can be done. The question is; Has it ever been done? And there have been a few hurricanes now that completely veered off the predicted path. So I'm serious. I know it can be done. I'm just wondering if it ever was done.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: sailor on September 11, 2019, 11:10:24 PM
"What, where, when, and how did the forecast miss, in this hand of the guessing game?"
I don't think the models missed. I think someone altered the weather...

15 or 20 years ago I think it was I watched a documentary - on National Geographic I think it was - about "steering" hurricanes. They did it by altering the pressure through cloud seeding of systems around it. They said then it was possible to do this. So by this time, we have all these marvelous models that can predict the weather. So I don't think it's unreasonable to think that by now they have completely figured it out how to steer hurricanes. Just ask the model...

I remember from the documentary that they said that the more time they have, the easier it is to "steer" the hurricane. So when a hurricane threatens to destroy Mar-a-Lago, and someone tells Trump that they have the technology to avoid disaster, do you really think Trump would say no? He wanted to "nuke" the hurricanes...

So I don't think the predictions were wrong. I think that someone turned this hurricane into a weapon to destroy a "shithole country"...
No, the creator of TropicalTidbits, Levi Cowan explains days before Dorian reaching Florida the uncertainty that there was depending on the strength of two highs at both sides of Florida, the interaction with a trough on North America and the relative timing of the hurricane arrival and of the displacement of the trough.

I advice you to watch this video and others that he prepared daily about the hurricane evolution and forecast.

https://youtu.be/ozRRjF7MC7c

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 11, 2019, 11:14:56 PM
Thanks Sailor. I'll watch it later. Probably better we move this discussion to another thread now. My bad to go OT!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 11, 2019, 11:59:46 PM
My bad to go OT!

OT? Oh shoot, I was proceeding on the assumption this is the OT thread. Now I'll have to sharpen up my discursive excursions, lest they wander into the dreaded swamplands. (Just yanking chains here, I hope that's okay in our Nullschool Greenroom.)

On-thread to the degree it's an image, off-thread in that it doesn't move. The following illustrates a double-exposure idea I'm kicking around. That IWPD layer works okay with the wind streaks as a monochrome image, which I can layer into a double-exposure as a tint. This one points out some places the forecast was wrong, from a couple of days before.

Pretty darn close, to be sure. The green layer is assimilated, the pink is forecast.

(Regarding whether weather can be controlled, I need to learn more about chaos theory, and the role it played in the development of atmospheric science.)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 12, 2019, 01:41:22 AM
Latest update, Wind @ Surface, September 11 - 16

Last week a depression dominated the CAB for a few days and the ice dispersed. Will this high pressure system compact the ice again and weld it together in a deep freeze?
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 12, 2019, 01:36:57 PM
Latest update, Wind + Temp @ Surface, September 12 - 17
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 12, 2019, 01:53:31 PM
Exclusively in the Nullschool Animations thread, this hindcast/forecast is the twin of the one in the main thread, except with the wind streaks turned off. IWPD factors in wind velocity, at least. Having a less fuzzy area to track will hopefully facilitate mechanical comparisons, such as pixel-counts. (Possibly a pixel hack could track GFS forecasting skill in the Arctic, as it varies.)

Hindcast: 9/8 to 9/12, Forecast: 9/12 to 9/16.
IWPD @ 850hPa [Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 12, 2019, 07:21:38 PM
Latest update, Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
September 12 - 17
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 07:08:27 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast.
I also included the last 24 hours this time. Use the pause function and the slider to go frame by frame.

Wind @ Surface
12 - 18 september
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 07:22:11 AM
Temp @ Surface
13 - 18 september
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 08:01:58 AM
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
13 - 18 september
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: blumenkraft on September 13, 2019, 08:43:15 AM
This one is most useful. If you could merge the temps in there that would be perfect.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 13, 2019, 12:42:00 PM
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing. I've combined Aluminium's last with the IWPD layer of my previous hindcast-forecast.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 01:04:14 PM
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Thank you for the feedback Blumenkraft! I was thinking that this one would be interesting. Clouds block the heat from escaping, right? And snow insulates the ice from freezing?

A combination of Nullschool graphics is also something that I've been wanting to do. I'll figure it out eventually! ;)

Keep the feedback coming!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 01:33:58 PM
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
13 - 18 september 9 am UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: blumenkraft on September 13, 2019, 01:36:01 PM
I'm not sure if this is comprehensible, or just confusing.

It is really awesome. !!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 13, 2019, 07:35:36 PM
This one is awesome Aleph_Null! I've been wanting to do this also, but I still have to figure out how.

Sincere thanks to you & blumenkraft for the initial feedback. Maybe this place is a good graphic test bed. I'm still a bit skeptical of information overload here -- like there's so much going on it's impossible to take it all in. (A complication for me with some layered views I see.)

I'm an old graphic pro from a couple of incarnations ago, hacking about with my prehistoric version of Photoshop. The basic approach: two or more layers are merged into one, over and over, then the merged layers are output as jpegs, thence to EZGif. To pirate Aluminium's artwork I needed a little help from their splitter: https://ezgif.com/split

[EDIT: To be clear: I'm not worried about information overload here in the greenroom, I was referring to my own product -- trying to keep it simple enough to grasp.]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 13, 2019, 08:20:24 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
12 - 18 september 3 pm UTC

Use pause function and slider to go frame by frame.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 14, 2019, 01:54:55 AM
My first attempt combining Temp + Total Cloud Water + Wind @ Surface
(I'll try to figure out how to reduce the file size next time)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 14, 2019, 02:11:18 AM
This is probably better for large file sizes. And I can tweet these...  ;D
https://youtu.be/JHEaNR3_hVw
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: blumenkraft on September 14, 2019, 08:02:13 AM
I hope others like it like i do! :D
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: be cause on September 14, 2019, 12:27:55 PM
.. Indeed .. that would allow even me to follow your posts and view as I choose without wasting my data allowance .. so thanks Freegrass . BTW your amazing download numbers on the main threads are just because of the autoloading .. you have been costing a lot .. :)
   pc b.c.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 14, 2019, 12:35:23 PM
This is probably better for large file sizes. And I can tweet these...  ;D

Absolutely! See for example:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCu_W8Y3lef2EEjzU-ouiQJg

Any and all likes/subscriptions welcome!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 14, 2019, 01:35:06 PM
Twin of this morning's Wind + IWPD animation, without the wind-streaks. At least, supposedly: a few minutes elapse between two runs of screengrabs on Nullschool, and in that interim the forecast settled down markedly in this run. Note the relative absence of wild thrashing in this slightly updated forecast, as compared to the Wind + version.

Hindcast: 9/10 to 9/14, Forecast: 9/14 to 9/18.
IWPD @ 850hPa [Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 14, 2019, 07:09:56 PM
Oy! It seems to be ton-of-bricks day for me in the main thread today. Silly me, I thought some 10,000 downloads of a previous animation was an indication someone found it interesting. It turns out (I am informed) that everyone who visits the page is forced to download my work! (Unaware that I had this power, I remain mystified how it eludes others.)

It's gotten to the point over there where the very idea of animated data maps is not only irrelevant, but antithetical to a rigorous understanding of atmospheric science. Just nice pretty stuff. It turns out the purpose of the Nullschool Animations thread is to entirely banish our work from the other one. Who knew?

Well here's my meager 1.5 MB (down from 5) of hobbled defiance! Just kidding: I don't have a problem with this smaller version -- I think it's more appropriate for the main thread. But it's sad that intelligent contributors get so squashed around here, sometimes. As a duffer, I'm well-accustomed to the thesis that nobody has much use for me -- so I don't find it discouraging, myself. But I worry about the extremity of hazing around here. Why do we need to flame newcomers so much? (My 5 MB file is far from the largest on that page.)

From now on, the smaller (relatively data-meager) one goes on the main thread, with a link to the bigger one in here. If that isn't an adequate compromise for everyone, I don't know what compromise would look like. I appreciate having a place to show this stuff, because I have personally found it surprisingly informative (about which I hope to say more, later).

Thanks!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 14, 2019, 09:28:28 PM
Aleph_Null, what I found out these last 3 months as a Newbie on this forum is that some people here don't like it when new members take away the spotlight from the oldtimers. Al they do is moan and bitch over file sizes, but they fail to reply to any other message I post. So what we have here my dear friend is a textbook example of bigotry. We are excluded from the group... They rather have we left, so they get all the attention again... But who cares? Leave those idiots be. Do what you know to be right, and work together for the benefit of all mankind! ;)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 14, 2019, 10:19:29 PM
This is probably better for large file sizes. And I can tweet these...  ;D

Absolutely! See for example:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCu_W8Y3lef2EEjzU-ouiQJg

Any and all likes/subscriptions welcome!
Your only contributions to this thread have been complaints and promotions for your own website.
Please refrain from doing so! If you have some Nullschool animation to contribute or comments on the work that is posted here, feel free to do so! If you only come here to complain and tell people what to do, please go away!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 15, 2019, 01:53:48 AM
some people here don't like it when new members...

I'm a thick-skinned relic. I don't mind getting extra hassles from others here -- nobody knows me and why would they suspect my psychedelic swirls are actually concerned with scientific content? Call me names, swear at me, whatever... but this professorial snarky-hints style (as if I'm just an undergraduate, so it's my job to figure out what the hell they want), it can nettle me -- refreshing my memory about why I hated school!

A godfather quote comes to mind: "What have I done to cause you to disrespect me so?"

Anyhow, I'm sorry to drag you back into this silly argument -- when people can just adjust their browser settings or site preferences and not have to act so unpleasant to us, when there are plenty more deserving candidates for accusations of abusing this site. If you'd forgive just a half-tsp of unsolicited advice from me, I'd urge you not to waste a moment's mental energy diagnosing the bizarre syndromes of haters. We got other stuff to do!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 15, 2019, 09:03:55 AM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
14 - 20 september 3 am UTC
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: MyACIsDying on September 15, 2019, 10:25:50 AM
There's many good reasons why MB's per comment should be ratio'd. All users with limited bandwidth (time to load) and data caps are affected. Advise to get around that with plugins is nice but, it's complicated, sometimes not possible (locked settings) and doesn't work for mobile users? I like to have as little as plugins as possible for privacy reasons..

One person may be complaining but possibly he's doing so for many lurkers & folks who don't want to get in an argument or ask for help with this config.

So the discussion of MB per comment value is a valid one. Please have it respectfully. I don't know what your godfather did to you Aleph_Null but no-one here has done something worth being disrespectful of.. just a discussion of an equation to be found. Having all hind/forecasts gif in a separate thread was a good solution imho, let's leave it at that?
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: pleun on September 15, 2019, 11:01:51 AM
lol, I think he meant this one :

Don Vito Corleone: What have I ever done to make you treat me so disrespectfully? If you’d come to me in friendship, then this scum that ruined your daughter would be suffering this very day. And if by chance an honest man like yourself should make enemies, then they would become my enemies. And then they would fear you.

The Godfather
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 15, 2019, 11:20:28 AM
Your only contributions to this thread have been complaints and promotions for your own website.

If you only come here to complain and tell people what to do, please go away!

Before I do that I'd just like to point out that you've managed to scrape into the GWC "New Einstein" contest for 2019 at the very last moment:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2019/03/the-great-white-con-2019-new-einstein-award/#Freegrass

In case it's not immediately apparent to you I'm a thick-skinned relic with a very dry Anglo-Saxon sense of humour. Now I'm off to troll Anthony Watts (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1173135836499648512) (amongst others!) a bit more.

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: gandul on September 15, 2019, 11:43:05 AM
I want to clarify the “troll” comment about JH. First it was not meant as insult but as he is very good using his native language (British English) and superb elite rhetoric against deniers and occasionally here with a new member.
Second, the problem with animations is one of confusion/lack of clarification. I am going to be constructive and collect what seems to be the common demands, perhaps somebody can solidify them somewhere:

- If one can go all the way to YouTube, seems the best option. Size UNLIMITED for the main thread.
- If you are with mp4, the jump to YT seems easy (upload it to your channel there; the embedding  here is just writing the YT video url and works like a charm)
- If you are with gif, or stuck with mp4, don’t post over 1.5MB in the main thread, or make it bigger than 700x pixels.
- if you cannot comply with any of the above, post it over here and link to main thread for discussion.

Yeah there one complaining about the sole existence of animations cluttering the main thread. I guess not everybody can be pleased wharever...
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: be cause on September 15, 2019, 11:55:36 AM
to clarify ,I have no complaint about animations .. I love them , but not as compulsory data demanding versions of a dollied up forecast devouring my data every time I visit a main thread ..
 Freegrass claims a concern for the environment then insists on my and every visitor's participation in 'fucking' it up .. what is that about ? Is that what being a 'dummy' is ?
 I have no bias toward old posters .. blumenkraft and others can vouch for that . I have a bias toward useful information delivered efficiently . Hence I guess I shall not be a frequent visitor to this thread .
 Have a nice day
 b.c.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 15, 2019, 12:46:02 PM
I want to clarify the “troll” comment about JH.

Thanks for that Gandul, and no offence taken. Did I mention that I'm very thick skinned?!

Thanks very much also for your heads up (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,578.msg228238.html#msg228238) about Donald Trump.

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: blumenkraft on September 15, 2019, 01:31:38 PM
blumenkraft and others can vouch for that .

I hereby do! :)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 15, 2019, 02:39:16 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

14 - 20 september

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 15, 2019, 04:30:24 PM
Latest 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Combined!

14 - 20 september

YouTube really does do a lousy job converting them...

https://youtu.be/9IieTuVWc1E
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 15, 2019, 11:49:07 PM
So the discussion of MB per comment value is a valid one.

I appreciate your concern, and thank you much for posting it here. I'll be severely "rationing" my posts to the main thread in response to the concerns I heard yesterday. I have zero problem with that. My own work is mainly scrupulously-handled GFS data maps, of late provenance. There's nothing to disrespect in that -- suggestions that such material belongs on YouTube are in-your-face disrespect to nothing but the work I do, which I do competently, I'll insist.

I should not have to defend the legitimacy of a 1.5 MB hindcast/forecast of GFS data as a post in the melting thread, where it is not only relevant, but obviously in high demand. Further attacks on this work, after I have compressed it into a low-rez version, would be uncalled for.

I'm contributing work here in ASIF, and here alone, unlike anything else. I'm comfortable with and accustomed to my work going unappreciated, but I at least hope to avoid having to call out unnecessary disrespect to this work.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 16, 2019, 02:09:30 AM
On the subject of where the "downloaded" count comes from, my scientific investigation of the evidence in the form of 50-post pages of the main thread reveals:

Damn! Mostly right, I think.

I observe a consistent pattern of high counts for highly-placed mp4's, steadily decreasing for each mp4 lower on the page. Every once in a while something breaks the pattern to show some influence of actual clicks, of uncertain importance.

Now I feel terrible about this. I hope the low-rez 1.5 MB isn't too much. It turns out, the way they design browsers, mp4's are more consequential in terms of traffic than I would have dreamed possible. I'm a lowly artist, trapped in a universe where they've made the most efficient compression algorithm for animated content into something toxic. In a sane world, protesters would be mobbing the offices of browser vendors, demanding they stop carbon-wasteful practices. (I'm totally serious there: it's a huge issue all over the internet.)

You see, it's also wasteful for the wires to be carrying files three times the size. There's no responsible option for me. The way they've set up this world: it sucks.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 16, 2019, 02:49:14 AM
Okay. Chastened and ashamed, I undertook to shrink the low-rez version so much, the timestamp is nearly illegible. This puppy is now down to < 600 KB. Still, the emphatic aspect of IWPD data maps retains a broad, basic description of 850hPa, even at such a tiny size, so it's okay.

Another thing evident from this pass: my intent is not to make something pretty. When the forecast gets all jittery and can't decide what's next, that's more interesting than "pretty" to me.

[Edit: it needs to be slower than this, which increased filesize in one test, and decreased it in another. Hoping against hope for clear sailing and tiny, well-behaved files...]

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 16, 2019, 01:56:13 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
September 15 - 21

Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 16, 2019, 02:25:50 PM
Hindcast: 9/12 to 9/16, Forecast: 9/16 to 9/20.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 16, 2019, 07:20:25 PM
Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
September 16 - 21
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: binntho on September 17, 2019, 06:48:25 AM
Sitting in a Derg era hotel in Addis Ababa and trying to follow this thread has certainly turned me into a minimalist. The smaller the better (in most things ...  8) )

But the YouTube embedding seems to be the one that works best, from the tropics anyway!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 17, 2019, 08:29:43 AM
Five day Forecast

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
September 17 - 22
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 17, 2019, 01:51:49 PM
Five day Forecast
September 17 - 22

Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 17, 2019, 06:40:48 PM
But the YouTube embedding seems to be the one that works best, from the tropics anyway!

There may be infrastructural reasons, with how they've set things up, which make video stream better out of YouTube (hopefully without too many commercials, not yet). I'm in the awkward position of having to withstand some irrational generalizations about mpeg's, stemming from situations like this. (Picture how you might feel to hear amateurs confidently expounding on a field in which you know better.)

So forgive me for lecturing a moment on MPEG. I had a previous question about compression anyhow. It stands for "Motion Picture Experts Group" (as JPEG is "Joint Photographic Experts Group") to standardize how lossy compression works for digitized content. For some visual content, the integrity of each pixel might be so important that a lossless compression scheme, such as gif, is preferred. But lossless never squeezes as much as lossy.

Usually, it's going to make the most sense to compress animations via MPEG (the "mp4" revision mainly concerned enabling copy protection). It's the medium, now. In my opinion, relatively small data-intensive movies are particularly useful when downloaded into a local viewer to toggle back and forth, etc. That's why there are timestamps in my work. Different movies belong in different places, depending on what they are.

The most sensible place to archive or retrieve the data-maps I scrutinize is here, in my opinion, with the other archived data concerning the Arctic Sea Ice. Beyond that, there really is a danger in consigning all movies in the world to YouTube. (Maybe all books belong in Modesto, CA. Nobody reads anymore, anyhow.)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 17, 2019, 07:24:24 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast

Wind @ Surface
September 16 - 22
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: gerontocrat on September 17, 2019, 08:23:23 PM
But the YouTube embedding seems to be the one that works best, from the tropics anyway!

Beyond that, there really is a danger in consigning all movies in the world to YouTube. (Maybe all books belong in Modesto, CA. Nobody reads anymore, anyhow.)
There is no guarantee that Youtube will not end bankrupt. Plenty of others have.

Some of us still read stuff on paper. We aren't all dead - yet.

By the way, the building in Mostar, former Yugoslavia, that housed the land records was mortared, blown up and burnt. Most of the paper records in the ledgers survived. Anything on computers did not.

A recent bbc article on what Trump is doing to science included that many thousands of pages about climate have been disappeared from the Government websites. Destroyed or just hidden ?

One day the ASIF will be no more - and the data stored in it? Who knows.

Anyway, I store my data in more than place. Total reliance on, e.g. the cloud, is an invitation to disaster.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 18, 2019, 12:41:56 AM
A recent bbc article on what Trump is doing to science included that many thousands of pages about climate have been disappeared from the Government websites. Destroyed or just hidden ?

If you have to guess, you haven't been paying attention...

Gosh, I'm so honored by your presence and your comment here, I can't let the occasion pass without at least a bit of appropriate groveling. I am so unworthy. Putting out the data day after day, formatted consistently so it's easy to quickly scan, with just a light touch of commentary. I don't know how you summon the energy to keep doing so much every day, but if the knowledge that you are adored as a demigod all over the globe helps, there you are.

THANK YOU FOREVER, GERONTOCRAT!

There, maybe that's emphatic enough. (I'm done with that business now, don't worry.)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: blumenkraft on September 18, 2019, 09:51:40 AM
+1
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: uniquorn on September 18, 2019, 12:21:29 PM
I wonder if nullschool animators could help me identify the dark weather event that shows up on this ascat animation travelling from chukchi to the caa, day249-253? (sep6-10)
A quick look back suggests a fast moving high pressure cyclone.
I'm looking for reasons for a sharp salinity drop in itp104-5 here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg229014.html#msg229014

thanks, ascat ani removed
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 18, 2019, 01:02:26 PM
Looking back on Nullschool, I don't see a big event around that time. I started this thread on September 9, so the graphics from around that time should still be found on the main melting season thread, or on Nullschool directly.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/09/06/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1829
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 18, 2019, 01:07:59 PM
travelling from chukchi to the caa, day249-253? (sep6-10)

I've only been tracking this mixture of wind speed and density at 850hPa, because it's a loud one, and I wanted to concentrate on one. But it's also shaky, and even the hindcasts take a few days to settle down as data assimilation continues. So the most reliable hindcasts I have to offer would be the ones starting on the 6th, and on the 8th (taken on the 10th & 12th, all times are UTC, of course):

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=132556
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2591.0;attach=132733
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 18, 2019, 01:21:20 PM
Hindcast: 9/14 to 9/18, Forecast: 9/18 to 9/22.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 18, 2019, 02:29:55 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 17 - 23

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 18, 2019, 08:00:53 PM
Five day Forecast
September 18 - 23

Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 19, 2019, 01:25:39 AM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 17 - 23

Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 19, 2019, 01:57:20 PM
Five day Forecast
September 19 - 24

Wind + Temp @ Surface

Converted with this free new site I found where you can choose which file size you want and convert it to any type of video you like.
https://www.online-convert.com/
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 19, 2019, 07:02:54 PM
Amateur Scientist?

I recently endured a very unpleasant encounter with a writer at a party. He liked to fling the word "science" about, but didn't like being politely asked to explain what he means in his usage of that word. It can destroy a friendship, for me, if I sense careless abuse of science. (Incidentally, I grew up marinated in such abuse, under the ridiculous moniker "Christian Science" -- which, of course, is manifestly neither.)

What is an amateur scientist? There's a real briar-patch of a question, imho. Climate Science has benefited from pivotal contributions of amateurs as far back as Guy Stewart Callendar (https://history.aip.org/climate/co2.htm#SC), and so continues. Most notable are the contributions of our host. Beyond garnering the respect he deserves for his well-grounded ideas, Neven excels, possibly beyond the skills of any other genius on Earth, at "herding cats." (I'm old enough to just say what I think, even when it automatically goes into the brown-nose bin.) In a few cases, it's easy to say: that's an amateur scientist.

In most cases, there's a hazard of implicitly getting slipshod about science. My own amateur specialty is Mathematical Logic, a field too general to exclude Philosophy, but too specialized to live there. My studies lead to growing uncertainty regarding what kind of beast Mathematical Logic is or ever has been. I don't call myself an amateur scientist, but I know enough to scrupulously preserve the integrity of scientific data passing through my hands. We do keep in mind: To knowingly distribute a false or distorted weather forecast is a serious crime.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: uniquorn on September 19, 2019, 09:54:19 PM
Amateur Scientist?
I don't call myself an amateur scientist, but I know enough to scrupulously preserve the integrity of scientific data passing through my hands. We do keep in mind: To knowingly distribute a false or distorted weather forecast is a serious crime.
Crikey. I hope that isn't me
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: philopek on September 19, 2019, 10:02:24 PM
Five day Forecast
September 19 - 24

Wind + Temp @ Surface

Converted with this free new site I found where you can choose which file size you want and convert it to any type of video you like.
https://www.online-convert.com/

Useful link, bookmarked among others, thanks.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 19, 2019, 10:45:42 PM
Crikey. I hope that isn't me

To be clear: Uniquorn's sister Shirley U. Giest inspired that post.

Out here in Nullschool Animations I feel so relieved to be able to go on and on about how much I admire Uniquorn's works, which are an inspiration to me, without worrying about Freegrass swooping down to responsibly reprove me for going OT again. ("We have an Abject Adoration thread for that purpose.") I like it here!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 20, 2019, 01:17:56 PM
Hindcast: 9/16 to 9/20, Forecast: 9/20 to 9/24.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 20, 2019, 01:47:56 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 19 - 25

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 20, 2019, 09:40:41 PM
The OT Gauntlet

In an earlier post, I closed by making fun of moderators a little bit, which should now be tempered with effusive appreciation of how moderation has preserved the value of the historically-vital online resource for the world which is ASIF. There was some fascinating description in the main thread yesterday from Sark, who obviously has profound insights, but leaves many of us in the dust, yearning to better understand the numbers he regularly posts. A couple of posters were finally bold enough to beg for more, and Sark complied, but that led to some of to the usual OT arguments (possibly sooner than necessary, imho).

At any rate, a positive outcome was a most loving and concise explanation of why OT matters, from F.Tnioli, which I'd like to reproduce here for reference. It's a subject of interest to Nullschool Animators, perhaps:

Sam, multi-year dynamics are off-topic here as long as discussing them does not lead to anyhow better understanding of the 2019 melting season. The _topic_ is named "The 2019 melting season", and thus any discussion which does not and/or can not allow to gain knowledge about this one single melting season, in here - is off-topic by definition. This does not anyhow reduce such discussion's own value, of course. The term "off-topic" merely indicates the discussion, however valuable, is not supposed to happen in this particular topic, nothing more and nothing else.

That said, there are indeed some subjects which, despite being off-topic, may be allowed to be discussed in this topic by the board's administration, to some finite length. The one Sark so originally touched - is probably among them. Importance and obvious relation to this melting season are among probable reasons for it to be. However, please always remember that the more off-topic discussion we'd do here, the less compact and "handy" the topic becomes for great many people who come to it for information specifically about the melting season itself. It is, you see, much about respect to other people to limit off-topic discussion here quite much, even if and when there would be good reasons to have it.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 21, 2019, 08:45:16 PM
The following animated investigation (and monthly documentation scheme) was conceived, in part, to validate my hunch that such hijinks @ 850hPa bear a temporal relationship to jiggling ice. At least one of our correspondents doesn't think mp4's belong in the main thread, period (an attitude addressed previously). I have implicitly pled guilty to presumptuousness in planting several 5 MB datamap-movies where their heft was troublesome. I wanted assurance from the iwpd data that it does, indeed, seem to move with the ice. Without it, I would withhold my 1/4 scale, doubletime hindcast/forecast from the season thread, even though it's only 3/4 of a MB.

My nickname for the following is Arctic Synchronicity because I'm wary of cause and effect around the atmosphere (remembering my hurricane-hunter's mantra). We see two things happening in concert, not necessarily one causing the other. U. Hamburg's sea-ice concentration maps are wondrous to behold. I feel immeasurably wealthy to have access (like everyone else) to their AMSR2 datamaps.

That much needed to be said. I'll save further reflections for later, except to mention in passing that I'm happy about how this experiment turned out, and it wouldn't have happened without the fellow who started Nullschool Animations, for whom my gratitude is boundless.

Dedicated with love and respect to Freegrass...

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size versions)
2019 March-April-May
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 21, 2019, 08:47:55 PM
One more post with doubletime miniviews attached, in case these are handy anywhere. The weather moves so quickly it can be tough to follow at two frames per day. (Full-size versions of amsr2+iwpd carry four frames of weather data per day.)

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny versions)
2019 March-April-May
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 22, 2019, 12:48:23 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
September 21 - 26

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 22, 2019, 01:52:10 PM
Hindcast: 9/18 to 9/22, Forecast: 9/22 to 9/26.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)

[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on September 23, 2019, 02:02:21 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
September 22- 28

Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 23, 2019, 06:22:41 PM
Suddenly last summer...

amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size versions)
2019 June-July-August
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 23, 2019, 06:25:24 PM
amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (tiny versions)
2019 June-July-August
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 23, 2019, 11:43:17 PM
This half-month, too-recent acquisition still looks a little wild, because data-assimilation for 850hPa takes a while, I suspect. At any rate, the grabs I got in this run leave me with a thorough means of independently determining, on the output end, when the GFS data from Nullschool settles down. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes longer than two weeks, though.

My impression, educated solely by the data, is that much about 850hPa is inferred from diverse sources of measurement. Initial approximations get revised to make fluid-dynamical sense, perhaps. (The forecast end of hindcast/forecast views I've shared are replete with loud examples of fluid-dynamical apparent nonsense, from one 3-hour interval to the next. Sorry about that.)

At any rate, this quick take should be deprecated when the full-month version (which should be smoother) joins the archive.

[weather data acquired 9/23]
amsr2+iwpd@850hPa (full-size version)
2019 September 1-15
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 24, 2019, 01:02:52 PM
Hindcast: 9/20 to 9/24, Forecast: 9/24 to 9/28.
IWPD @ 850hPa, Wind + IWPD @ 850hPa (full-size versions)


[Instantaneous Wind Power Density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 24, 2019, 10:32:12 PM
Same as the half-month quick-take before, only adding a little mean sea-level pressure to the mix. A triple-layer cake. I'm wary of making it too complicated (not for production, for the viewer). My first impression: this way might be more legible for me, trying to read the weather as the frames go by. There are basic cognitive reasons I prefer blobs to streaks, again having to do with avoiding excessive noisiness for the viewer. The AMSR2 datamaps are so beautiful, I mean to slightly illuminate without blocking them.

amsr2+mslp+iwpd@850hPa.mp4
2019 September 1-15
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 25, 2019, 09:55:33 AM
One more try, with more pressure. Sorry to post a third revision if that's annoying. Possibly it's interesting to some here to watch something like this develop.

amsr2+mslp+iwpd@850hPa.mp4
2019 September 1-15
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 27, 2019, 01:33:24 PM
Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 [U. Bremen sea ice concentration] + MSLP [mean sea level pressure] + IWPD@850hPa [instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3] (full-size version)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 27, 2019, 08:08:14 PM
Sky & Ice

The closer I examine U. Bremen sea ice concentration datamaps [ASI (from AMSR2) ver. 5.4, Grid 6.25 km], the more I find to appreciate. The depth of information compiled in their visual renditions is amazing -- particularly when compared sequentially. But -- what is it with these people? -- someone over there decided it would also be informative to make their datamap renditions beautiful, of all things! A humble artist stands at risk of falling in love.

I've heard the question raised: What are you-all trying to prove with these animations? Perfectly sensible question, I think, from busy people with no time for any of that touchy-feely nonsense. I can't speak for anyone else but myself. The nature of my work is more a question than a statement. The sky & ice relate to each other in so many complex ways -- can sequential imagery bring to light any interesting details of that relationship?

For me it can, but U. Bremen's naturalistic-looking approach constrains me, as I figure out how much sky to show with this ice (I know it's concentration data, but it sure looks like ice). Cognitively, we're simply incapable of comprehending two unrelated things simultaneously. (Try counting to ten: English number-names for even, German for odd. No, I mean out loud, and faster. See?) There's so much happening in the atmosphere every three hours (as reported by Nullschool). If I don't want to graphically blast U. Bremen's gorgeous work to smithereens with incomprehensible noise, I can only pick a few key details.

I've settled on the depiction above for both the hindcast-forecast and for the monthly look-back I'm working on. Taking it to the hindcast-forecast necessitated a second (usually redundant) date-stamp pertaining only to the once-a-day AMSR2 image (so that the date-stamp is always accurate for the AMSR2 datamap displayed).

As part of production, I wind up compiling unadorned AMSR2 monthly sequences. Below is August 2019.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on September 30, 2019, 02:14:37 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/25 to 9/30, Forecast: 9/30 to 10/3.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 03, 2019, 01:21:36 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 9/28 to 10/3, Forecast: 10/3 to 10/6.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: sailor on October 03, 2019, 07:33:47 PM
Hindcast: 9/22 to 9/27, Forecast: 9/27 to 9/30.
AMSR2 [U. Bremen sea ice concentration] + MSLP [mean sea level pressure] + IWPD@850hPa [instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3] (full-size version)
Some of these visualizations are really really good in showing the effect of winds and coldness on ice expansion.
I wonder if you could use amsr2 Uni Hamburg (with a ftp client you can download an entire season if you wanted) and transform the blue outside the ice in transparent, the white of the ice in transparent leaving only the edge against the nullschool material overlaid... Uniquorn uses that to overlay ocean temp and it is really cool.
That I would like to try if I had the software/skills. Which I do not.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 03, 2019, 10:43:26 PM
Some of these visualizations are really really good in showing the effect of winds and coldness on ice expansion.
I wonder if you could use amsr2 Uni Hamburg (with a ftp client you can download an entire season if you wanted) and transform the blue outside the ice in transparent, the white of the ice in transparent leaving only the edge against the nullschool material overlaid...

Thank you most egregiously for your kind words. The Monthly Review portion of my "pressure, etc." series  is the main emphasis of my effort. Different folks have different approaches. My idea is to keep to the same visual language, as it were, for both the Hindcast-Forecast and the Monthly Review (not yet released). Hopefully, the two modest views can reinforce and explain each other. My overarching goal is merely to provide concise, comprehensible documentation of atmosphere and sea ice as they engage each other, through the seasons.

For the first time ever in my career as a production artist, I'm under no obligation to heed the demands of design-by-committee here, and I can't fully express how exhilarating that freedom feels for me! From my professional experience I know that ambition kills, if I take on too much at once, it will be too much for the form of sequential imagery I work in. Just try explaining something like that to a damn committee!

So I'm not necessarily looking for new visual experiments (thanks anyways, I might in future be probing mechanically to assess forecasting skill, that kind of thing). The expressiveness of the U. Bremen maps has me so floored, I can't imagine anything better, for my purposes. I even like the occasional stab of gray no-data, to remind folks this isn't really a photo!

I go back many seasons from monthly directories like this at U. Bremen, at present:
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2019/oct/Arctic/
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: sailor on October 03, 2019, 11:37:06 PM
OK, they are great as they are, especially the one showing wind density power, like how the ice pack responds to cold strong wind, as the recent refreeze at Beaufort.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 04, 2019, 01:17:41 AM
I'm seeing some shapes and transitions I didn't know could be physical, but (as Dave Barry says) I swear I'm not making this up. (Processing kept as minimal as possible) Continuity gives much more room for synchronicity to show itself, so the monthly review (September 2019 coming soon) will hopefully make more sense. The weather moves so gosh-darn fast, those doubletime post-it notes I cook up for the main thread can be a bit startling to the uninitiated. (I'm getting so I can read these blobs, even when they're not moving.)

Your support, sailor, is a first for me, in a way. Thanks much. I'm still tying off details of "pressure etc." production (the size of work-files involved is formidable). One idea that keeps haunting the back of my mind is that AAM that's been going around (wow! I just made a pun!) If the Atmospheric Angular Momentum is something distinct from the pace at which the Earth turns, I'm curious how it would look to graphically stabilize the atmosphere, let Greenland spin around instead. Probably silly.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on October 04, 2019, 01:48:00 PM
Last 24h + Five day Forecast
October 3 - 9

Wind + Temp @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 06, 2019, 02:18:02 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/1 to 10/6, Forecast: 10/6 to 10/9.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 07, 2019, 09:40:36 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
September 2019 review, with September 2018.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size versions]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 09, 2019, 12:12:04 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/4 to 10/9, Forecast: 10/9 to 10/12.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 12, 2019, 12:57:26 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/7 to 10/12, Forecast: 10/12 to 10/15.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 15, 2019, 01:45:51 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/10 to 10/15, Forecast: 10/15 to 10/18.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 18, 2019, 01:04:27 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/13 to 10/18, Forecast: 10/18 to 10/21.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 21, 2019, 12:37:13 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/16 to 10/21, Forecast: 10/21 to 10/24.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 24, 2019, 01:06:33 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/19 to 10/24, Forecast: 10/24 to 10/27.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 27, 2019, 12:21:24 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/22 to 10/27, Forecast: 10/27 to 10/30.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on October 30, 2019, 12:17:40 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/25 to 10/30, Forecast: 10/30 to 11/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 02, 2019, 11:31:01 AM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/28 to 11/2, Forecast: 11/2 to 11/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 05, 2019, 01:20:39 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 10/31 to 11/5, Forecast: 11/5 to 11/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 08, 2019, 12:31:10 AM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
October 2019 review, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size versions]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 08, 2019, 01:03:48 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/3 to 11/8, Forecast: 11/8 to 11/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 11, 2019, 12:37:16 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/6 to 11/11, Forecast: 11/11 to 11/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 14, 2019, 12:30:00 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/9 to 11/14, Forecast: 11/14 to 11/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 17, 2019, 01:02:45 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/12 to 11/17, Forecast: 11/17 to 11/20.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 20, 2019, 12:34:39 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/15 to 11/20, Forecast: 11/20 to 11/23.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 23, 2019, 01:16:40 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/18 to 11/23, Forecast: 11/23 to 11/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 26, 2019, 12:23:24 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/21 to 11/26, Forecast: 11/26 to 11/29.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on November 29, 2019, 12:21:16 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/24 to 11/29, Forecast: 11/29 to 12/2.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 02, 2019, 12:41:55 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/27 to 12/2, Forecast: 12/2 to 12/5.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 05, 2019, 12:38:18 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 11/30 to 12/5, Forecast: 12/5 to 12/8.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 08, 2019, 12:52:14 AM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
November 2019 review, with synchronized comparison {2019, 2018, 2017, 2016}.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size versions]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 08, 2019, 01:39:18 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/3 to 12/8, Forecast: 12/8 to 12/11.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 11, 2019, 12:30:43 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/6 to 12/11, Forecast: 12/11 to 12/14.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 14, 2019, 12:39:04 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/9 to 12/14, Forecast: 12/14 to 12/17.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 17, 2019, 12:18:29 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/12 to 12/17, Forecast: 12/17 to 12/20.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 20, 2019, 01:01:35 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/15 to 12/20, Forecast: 12/20 to 12/23.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 23, 2019, 01:18:16 PM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
Hindcast: 12/18 to 12/23, Forecast: 12/23 to 12/26.

AMSR2 (U. Bremen sea ice concentration) + MSLP (mean sea level pressure) + IWPD@850hPa (instantaneous wind power density: air density ρ, wind velocity v: ½ρv3) [full-size version]
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 29, 2019, 02:31:50 AM
pressure, wind & density over sea ice concentration
probably discontinued


Sorry about that. Nullschool's WPD overlay went blank some days ago. If it comes back, the animation series can resume. I can't find an adequate substitute, so this might be it, for awhile.

I'm very grateful for the opportunity to share some visual inquiries here. Thanks, everyone!
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: kassy on December 29, 2019, 04:48:26 PM
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: gerontocrat on December 29, 2019, 05:25:26 PM
Lets hope it comes back. Have you asked them why it is blank now?

And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on December 29, 2019, 05:35:24 PM
Have you asked them why it is blank now?

For my part, I'm satisfied with waiting to see if WPD is dropped from the interface. Right now it's indistinguishable from the None overlay on my machine, and has been for at least a week. Whatever's going on over there, my inquiry would likely be more bothersome than helpful. (Plus: I don't have a contact there -- after all, I haven't paid them anything.) If there's any information available about this outage, I'd certainly be interested.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 01, 2020, 04:49:19 PM
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: gerontocrat on January 01, 2020, 10:58:57 PM
And "calling year 2020. Where are you?"

I've now welcomed the New Year in California, but 2020 has yet to show up on Nullschool's date menu. This gives me hope: maybe everyone's on break out there, and they'll restore WPD when they get back. (I can dream, can't I?)
2020 is there but invisible. After opening Nullschol and choosing date,just ignore the year row and choose the days in January you want. It worked for me. (I checked by selecting 8th Jan, i.e. more than 5 days forward, and it responded - no data.)

I guess they, like me, are having some problems with the year change.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Aleph_Null on January 17, 2020, 11:03:31 PM
In this experiment, I want to observe sea-level pressure superimposed on wind at the 250hPa geopotential height (in which I take the bright red bands as an approximation to jet-stream winds) -- to watch the temporal relation. I like the Winkel projection for not losing roundness while showing the whole planetary surface, but it's not as good a view for things specifically Arctic.

The color-scheme of wind remains as captured from Nullschool. MSLP (mean sea-level pressure) was flattened into a grayscale image, so that wind colors stay legible, while low-pressure areas look like shadows. This is my first crack at a quarterly product, which I don't plan to share anywhere else besides this Nullschool Animations thread.

sea-level pressure with wind @ 250hPa
September, October, November 2019.
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on May 07, 2020, 01:15:49 AM
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: oren on May 07, 2020, 03:14:03 AM
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback
Title: Re: Nullschool Animations
Post by: Freegrass on May 07, 2020, 03:33:41 AM
Thank you FG for posting these periodically. I find them quite useful. And yes, Fram export does appear to be making a comeback
I was surprised to see the dipole break up this quickly. Previous forecasts had it last longer. Or wasn't this the big one yet? Time will tell... But a lot of the ice will still go down the drain this week!  >:( 

Thanks for the support and the kind words!  :D
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 09, 2020, 01:42:26 AM
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like a large amount of ice will be exported out of the arctic in the coming week. Luckily that giant storm at the end will smash itself to dead quickly against Greenland.

This is what the temperature at the pole looks like on day 5 from now...  ???
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1723/loc=-00.000,90.000 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/13/1200Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,1723/loc=-00.000,90.000)

I'll do temperature tomorrow.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 11, 2020, 01:25:35 AM
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 12, 2020, 01:20:32 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

I'm curious to see how much ice will pile up in the ESS with those anticyclonic winds.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 18, 2020, 12:45:18 PM
I'm going to make another forecast today, and I'm curious to see which one is preferred here. I always like the temp @ surface one, and the wind, but I've added this poll now to see what others like.

You can change your 3 votes at anytime to bring another preference to the top.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 19, 2020, 01:50:57 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 19, 2020, 05:57:26 PM
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 20, 2020, 01:50:56 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 20, 2020, 02:00:10 PM
   For the Kara Sea, in addition to warm surface temperatures in the current GFS forecast (which are easier to see in Climate Renanalyzer), it seems like the winds (which are easier to see in Nullschool) will also contribute to ice losses over the next 5 days.
Hi Glen. I don't think the wind in the Kara will be a very big problem. They seem to pass very quickly, so the impact should be minimal.

Edit: Temperatures in the Kara will be a problem of course. Combined with the wind, the Kara will suffer.

What I'll be watching for is if the ice pack will spread out again with that low centered over the CAB. The High from last week compacted the ice, and I don't think it all froze together much yet. That could mean that extent will increase again over the coming days.

It's interesting to see the ESS fill up again as I predicted. Of course that means more open water in the Chukchi and Beaufort seas.

Edit 2: Will that high on top of the Beaufort start up the Beaufort gyre? Or is that too early still?
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 21, 2020, 04:28:47 AM
WTF happened? Is modeling software fucking up because they're unable to adjust for particle reduction due to the crisis?

Is shit getting worse then models could predict? Or am I just too drunk?
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 21, 2020, 03:14:14 PM
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is. 
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on May 24, 2020, 02:42:58 PM
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often find myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: HapHazard on May 24, 2020, 09:33:48 PM
I sympathize Glen. I've learned over the years to recognize some of the hinted phenomena, but I still often mind myself cluelessly scratching my head while someone goes gaga about a forecast.

Same boat here. I get some of it, but other times I don't know what the heck a poster is on about.

It's like having a nice conversation with someone then out of nowhere they throw in a few sentences using an alien language, then revert back like no big deal.  ??? ???
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 26, 2020, 01:57:31 PM
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Ice Shieldz on May 26, 2020, 10:36:12 PM
Hey Freegrass  - thanks for your excellent animations. This has probably been discussed before, but is there anyway you can include the surface temps with the winds? Seems more important now for late spring and summer. 🌞
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 27, 2020, 01:55:37 AM

Hi Ice. Thank you for the kind words! I usually post the Wind + Temp @ Surface videos on the melting thread, because as you said, they are the most valuable right now.

You can find the latest one from Monday here (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg265603.html#msg265603).

It's probably a good idea that I will link to them here in the future. Thanks for bringing that to my attention!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 27, 2020, 01:36:34 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 27, 2020, 02:13:37 PM
      FG  and others - when you comment on a benign or threatening forecast, please specify what it is you are referring to.  Otherwise, I may not be able to see what you are seeing, and I suspect neither do a lot of other people.  Sorry to nag, but this has happened a lot lately by various posters - noting something extreme or of supposed importance without specifying what it is.
The problem is that I'm starting to understand the impact of the weather on the ice, but I don't have the skills to explain it all in a proper scientific way. My brain works completely different... I can see it and understand it, but I can't explain it...

I'm always hoping I can find someone who could...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 28, 2020, 05:32:25 AM
       FG - I'm not asking for a seminar, or an explanation of the reasoning for your alarm, just the name of the thing that grabbed your attention.  Is it the wind?  The temperature?  Particular locations? Precipitable water?  Is it a strong low-pressure system near the Bering Strait?  Or high pressure dominating the CAB?

       Since the image clips don't show the scale legend to allow interpreting what the colors mean, and since most of us won't bother to go over to NullSchool to find the legend bar, the colors in the images are intriguing but not quantitatively informative.  If you are referring to temperature in a certain region, use your text message to tell us how high they are such that they grabbed your eye.

       If you just say "Oh My God!" with no text to identify what it is you are referring too, and post an image without a legend, it may not be clear to us what has your attention or what the image is representing. 

       Yes, we can watch the clip and get some sense of it, especially if we are used to NullSchool images.  So it's not that the images are useless without some explanation and a legend.  But if you are going to the trouble to make a clip, why not gift wrap it just a little bit to make it more meaningful? 

       When this is all in the history books, and your great grandchildren are looking back at what their 'Oompah' did during the great meltdown of 202?, make them proud.  Until then, thanks for your efforts.  I enjoy the freshness of your wonder and curiosity, and have learned from your queries.  Like you, I am a non-expert tuning into this drama, and just trying to figure out what's going on.  Even though it is a horror show when you consider the larger implications, it is a fascinating process to watch.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on May 30, 2020, 02:15:21 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

It looks like fram export will be back in a few days from now.
Curious to see if that wind in the Nares strait will move the ice in the Lincoln sea.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 11, 2020, 01:09:12 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 11, 2020, 02:58:28 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

There is one frame near the end that remains erroneous today. Usually it corrects itself after a while on Nullschool, but not today. The good thing is that you can compare two forecasts now. Enjoy!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 12, 2020, 02:07:36 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 12, 2020, 09:54:31 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 14, 2020, 02:25:24 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 01:53:01 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 03:43:35 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

That storm is sucking in a lot of cold air that is making it weaker. But it seems like that cold air is being cut off a little in the latest forecast. If that cold air gets cut off more, that storm could get a lot bigger and stronger very quickly. So it'll be interesting the follow how this develops over the next few days.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 07:26:36 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I find it interesting to keep following the forecast of this storm more closely for a while. It looks like it's getting more cold air now, just 6 hours later. These subtle changes make a big difference in the forecast of this storm.


To be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 16, 2020, 01:49:03 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Next in the series. That pulse of cold air has now disorganized that storm and blown past it. I'm sure some of you will be more qualified to interpret all this, so I hope you like this little experiment.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 16, 2020, 11:08:42 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 16, 2020, 01:42:16 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This shit just went bad... It's the first time this cold air gets exposed to real world temperatures on land, and it doesn't seem to look as cold anymore now. Is this prove of my theory, that the models are underestimating the weather the impact of the sun due to particle reduction? And does this mean that this storm could even get stronger as that cold air heats up even more?

Or am I seeing it all wrong? I know I lack the knowledge to understand all this. So help me out here guys!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 16, 2020, 03:33:06 PM
The storm is actually getting stronger because it's getting hot moist air from along the CAA coast. This air came all the way from Siberia, and spun around the storm.

Edit 1:It's getting a push from that cold air on the siberian side, and then feeds on the hot air from the CAA side.

Edit 2: And it looks like it'll find some more food on the pacific side soon. That could make this a monster...

I don't know about you guys, and maybe it's my ignorance, but I find this fascinating.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 16, 2020, 07:19:37 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Cold air is entering the center of the storm again, making it weaker...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 17, 2020, 02:55:54 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 17, 2020, 07:34:05 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Oh my... The trend seems to be towards a stronger storm. Winds above 50 km/h are now in the forecast. That'll do some damage...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on June 17, 2020, 09:12:49 AM
I assume the extensive moisture also means clouds, which could come in handy at this time of year, especially if the storm lingers.
BTW could you also post a wind+temps forecast?
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: be cause on June 17, 2020, 11:34:11 AM
Oh my .. machine gun .. b.c.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 17, 2020, 02:00:23 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

That's right Oren, the sun will be blocked by this storm. And as you can see on the temp forecast, the temperatures on the ice will be going down. Now we just wait to see how much physical damage this storm will do to the ice. 50 km/h winds usually will do that, but it looks like the wind won't be to persistent over the same area.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 17, 2020, 04:26:24 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 17, 2020, 09:32:44 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

A little change again in the forecast that could have big consequences. The wind speed has gone down just a little below 50 km/h, but at the end of the forecast this storm seems to find some more food again on the Alaskan side. Curious to see how this develops in the next few forecasts.


To be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 18, 2020, 01:36:15 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Well, it's happening. This storm has a new feeding ground on the pacific side and ends up in this forecast with food on both sides. If this pattern holds, I can see a lot of destruction to the ice. Winds will be persistent over the same piece of ocean. If they get any stronger, this storm will turn out to be a disaster for the ice. But again, this is a layman's opinion...

It also seems as if I was right that this cold air has gotten warmer than the models initially predicted. But I have no idea how to quantify this. It is just my perception.


To be continued...

PS: can we start calling this storm the 2020 GAC? Or is it still to small for that?
Edit: I just checked the long term forecast, and that's not looking good...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 18, 2020, 07:41:33 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 18, 2020, 01:45:14 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It looks like a little more cold air has reached the core of this storm again, weakening it, and cutting it off from new food on the pacific side. The long term forecast now doesn't show that big storm anymore. Instead we get high pressure.


To be continued...

Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 18, 2020, 07:53:34 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

On the forecast from 18 hours ago you can clearly see a small curl over the Chukchi sea that was going to add a new pulse of energy to this storm. But that little disturbance is now gone, cut off by a pulse of cold air, effectively killing this storm... RIP JAC! Maybe...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 18, 2020, 09:44:28 PM
Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface

I've added a picture of the area where the strongest winds will occur (with this forecast). The image is from June 11, the first cloudless day I could find. The area is a little north of the Chukchi sea. I'm curious to see how much these cracks will open up due to this storm. But overall the ice is pretty solid there, so we may be dodging another bullet if this forecast holds. But experience tells me this storm can still strengthen again.


To be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 19, 2020, 02:00:03 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This storm became a little stronger again, but seems to be fading out near the end due to a lack of food... There's still so much hot and moist air around this storm though to reignite it, so I'm not giving up on this little storm just yet! A little shift can make a big difference...


To be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 19, 2020, 07:15:26 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Big change. The storm has connected again with that little disturbance on the pacific side and thus found some more food to keep going in the opposite direction towards the CAA now. Can't wait to see the next forecast. This isn't over yet!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 19, 2020, 01:51:13 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

Pinball JAC is back! This storm keeps bouncing off the coasts where it finds a lot of new food to feed on. On the long term forecast things are turning bad again, and so now I have to keep doing this for another 10 days? Damn you JAC!  ::)

There's a lot of energy available on the Atlantic side now. Once it starts feeding there, this could become a monster...


To be continued for sure...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 19, 2020, 07:26:31 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Some cold air has come in between the handshake of these 2 low pressure systems, effectively weakening the storm before it can find some more food coming in from the Fram. This is yet another interesting development to follow, so...


To be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 20, 2020, 02:16:23 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I guess that's the end of JAC Daniel's... But plenty of energy left to rebuild a new one.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: HapHazard on June 20, 2020, 06:44:52 AM
Thanks FG, this thread is fun to watch.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 20, 2020, 07:35:12 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

You're welcome HapHazard. I'm glad you're enjoying it. :)
It's been real fun watching this storm that is starting to live up to the name that I gave it.

JD is behaving like a waggling drunk right now who hasn't got a clue where to go next. Am I going, am I staying, or shall I have another drink with my new found buddy that is keeping me upright? He really doesn't have a clue...


So to be continued...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 20, 2020, 03:01:38 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

This storm is strengthening again. There's way to much heat around, now on the Atlantic side. The Pacific side has cooled significantly. But I guess that's only temporarily...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 20, 2020, 07:51:27 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Cold air entering the storm and moving out on the long term forecast.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 01:32:04 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

JD is finding more food again. It's like there's too much energy available all around it, effectively trapping it in the Arctic.

I guess Pinball JAC wasn't a bad name for it after all...  :-\
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 09:31:23 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 02:06:42 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface

It seems like there's too much cold air entering the system that is weakening the storm. This cold air can't rise anymore, so it's dropping, creating a high near the CAA that is pushing the storm away.

Or am I completely wrong about that? Isn't that how it works?
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 08:18:55 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Is anyone else still interested in what I'm doing here? If not, I'm gonna end these 6 hour updates. The storm is ending anyway, so... THE END!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Phoenix on June 21, 2020, 08:49:28 PM
I like the gifs Freegrass. I am one of the 9 of 18 respondents who prefers the wind + temp option.

Keep in mind that the forecasts are not 100% reliable. If GFS is indicating a likelihood that JAC Daniels will run out of gas in 5 days, it may still last longer.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 21, 2020, 08:57:42 PM
I'm not gonna stop making these forecasts. I'm just gonna stop making these 6 hour updates on JD. It was just an experiment, and it's time to end it. I learned a lot from it. Hope others did too.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on June 21, 2020, 11:16:29 PM
I watch every animation but yeah, 6 hour updates seems like a lot of work, and the model seems to be quite indecisive 5 days out.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 22, 2020, 12:04:19 AM
That's true Oren, the model does change a lot, but it's from those little changes that I learned a lot. Maybe I drew the wrong conclusions sometimes, but I found it fascinating to watch how the forecast could radically change because of minor delicate interactions. That's why it's damn impressive what these weather models are capable of doing these days.


But it's also clear now that they still have a lot of work to do...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 22, 2020, 01:30:41 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I'll try to keep making them every 12 hours. Halve the work, and I'm watching MSNBC on my computer around that time anyway. So hope you like it.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 22, 2020, 01:39:18 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 23, 2020, 01:26:10 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 23, 2020, 02:23:21 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 02:13:00 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

Things are heating up again over the arctic ocean, and the Bering Strait is gonna get it's pipes cleaned it seems. I think this will bring in a lot of hot water from the Bering Sea, while the Chukchi gets a good stir.

Boy is this fun to do now with my new computer. It takes a fraction of the time now to make these graphics. :D
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 01:44:10 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 02:35:44 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 03:25:51 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on June 24, 2020, 03:30:00 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Nice.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 03:42:49 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Nice.
It only takes me a few minutes to make these now, while before it took me forever on that old laptop. So this is fun now. :)

I'll make one with rain now. Big storms are showing up as well.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 03:51:35 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation

The ESS is gonna get a lot of rain this week.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on June 24, 2020, 08:40:11 PM
I find the wind+temps really useful for gauging expected effects on sea ice, and the new clouds thing is also very interesting during peak insolation.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 08:57:51 PM
I find the wind+temps really useful for gauging expected effects on sea ice, and the new clouds thing is also very interesting during peak insolation.
I really love the Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water. But you might have guessed that by now...   :-\
There's so much you can see on that IMIO (In My Ignorant Opinion). Blue is bad... Brown is good... Where else do you see that in our society? I know Hitler would have hated that...   ::)

I'm on whisky and weed right now...
Happy mood... ;)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: JayW on June 25, 2020, 01:37:10 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Should do a number on the Chukchi.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 25, 2020, 02:10:10 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It looks like the arctic wants to get "high"...
Goodbye JAC!  :'(
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 25, 2020, 03:49:14 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 26, 2020, 03:40:10 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 26, 2020, 01:40:30 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 27, 2020, 02:04:09 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water

Sunny and hot with clear skies.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 28, 2020, 01:53:40 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 28, 2020, 09:36:10 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind + Temp @ 850hPa
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on June 28, 2020, 09:51:29 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Cloud Water
Wind @ Surface + 3-hour Precipitation Accumulation
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on July 01, 2020, 08:26:27 PM
FG, are you ok? I got hooked on your posts here.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 02, 2020, 01:19:34 AM
FG, are you ok? I got hooked on your posts here.
I'm going through some very bad days again right now. The anger is gone now, and sadness has taken over again...  :'(  Depression is a bitch...  :'(

I just posted a temp Gif on the melting thread though. Here it is.
One frame didn't update yet on Nullschool. That's the error you see at the end.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 06, 2020, 09:05:17 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

It's time to start making these again, because something is brewing on the Atlantic side. Just look at all that energy that's present in the arctic. This has to explode into something big.

Let's hope I'm wrong about this, but the long term forecast seems to agree, even though it's not reliable at all. But something has to give with all that food around, so let's keep an eye on this new possible monster...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020070600/gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 17, 2020, 07:30:54 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

11 days ago some storms started appearing in the forecasts, but none ever materialized over the CAB.

It seems highly likely that this will change in the coming days. The boring - yet destructive - weather pattern is finally over. Let's see what this low can do. So far it seems it doesn't want to eat the available food. Let's see if that changes with that second storm.

Sorry about the 2 errors. Nullschool is slow in updating again it seems. I made this twice already and the error remains. So I'll make another one later in the day without errors hopefully.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 18, 2020, 02:01:15 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

WTF is wrong with Nullschool lately? 2 hours after the weather update it's still showing errors.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 18, 2020, 01:00:20 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 19, 2020, 01:31:18 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: HapHazard on July 19, 2020, 09:02:10 PM
Thanks again for these posts, FG.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 20, 2020, 01:06:53 PM
Thanks again for these posts, FG.
You're welcome HH. Glad you like them. Don't forget to click the like button from time to time. ;)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 20, 2020, 01:16:28 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water

I really thought we would be getting a bigger storm than what's coming now. So much energy around, and this thing seems to be anorexic...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 21, 2020, 01:52:41 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: blumenkraft on July 21, 2020, 02:27:25 PM
Just listening to the Deutschlandfunk science podcast. They mentioned the accuracy of weather forecasts decreased in 2020 due to fewer airplanes collecting data (Covid effect).

Thank you for those anyway, FG!! :)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 21, 2020, 03:09:24 PM
Yes, I heard about that problem a few times already, and the forecasts do suck hard this season. I thought the models had some problems with clean air, but airplanes is a more logical explanation.

Long term forecasts are completely useless now, but short term forecasts have their use.

I'm just waiting for that big storm now that's been predicted a gazillion times already in July, but I think the aliens keep stealing them...  ::)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 23, 2020, 09:07:07 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: blumenkraft on July 23, 2020, 09:42:19 AM
Clear sky over the Nares. Lookoing forward to make some nice export GIFs...  :-X
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 24, 2020, 01:40:13 PM
Clear sky over the Nares. Looking forward to make some nice export GIFs...  :-X
It sucks hard that there are so many clouds over the ice right now. I was really getting used to clear skies to view the state of the ice.

Curious to see if that big floe will end up in Nares and block the channel. But that's for another thread.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 24, 2020, 01:41:00 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 25, 2020, 07:43:15 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large Gif!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 25, 2020, 01:54:31 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large Gif!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 25, 2020, 08:34:56 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface
Large gif!

It looks like tomorrow we'll know how strong the ice in the central CAB is. The wind is not that strong, but could certainly do some damage to weak ice.

The Pacific side is a disaster in the making.

Should I keep using Gifs, or switch back to MP4?
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on July 25, 2020, 10:05:06 PM
Use whatever is more convenient for you here. But in the season thread only gifs, to avoid auto-loading.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: blumenkraft on July 25, 2020, 10:06:55 PM
What Oren said. :)
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: oren on July 25, 2020, 10:17:51 PM
And I should add that your contribution with these animated forecasts is much appreciated. Another one of those things I never bothered to check systematically, and is now being fed in a timely manner to me and many other readers.
Personally it is much easier for me to view the winds and temps this way than to read the atmospheric pressure contours that others find so intuitive.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 26, 2020, 08:32:52 AM
And I should that your contribution with these animated forecasts is much appreciated. Another one of those things I never bothered to check systematically, and is now being fed in a timely manner to me and many other readers.
Personally it is much easier for me to view the winds and temps this way than to read the atmospheric pressure contours that others find so intuitive.
I agee Oren. Without a background in weather forecasting it's not always easy to interpret those forecast maps Friv and others use. Those charts also lack the details that can be seen on Nullschool.

My apologies for what happened yesterday. That was just an experiment gone bad.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 26, 2020, 09:14:19 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind @ Surface
Large GiFS!

I'm curious to see what those persistent winds on the Atlantic side towards the Laptev will do to the ice. Apart from early on, those winds aren't that strong, but they are persistent and will be blowing over weak ice.

Export through Nares will be on hold for now.

I'm gonna stick to GIfs here as well if it's not a problem for server space on ASIF. They require one less step to make, and that way they don't all together autoload when people visit this thread.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 27, 2020, 08:18:22 AM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Wind @ Surface
Wind @ 250hPa
Large GiFS!

And so it begins... We went from a 2 days storm to no storm and back to a five day storm now. It does weaken after a few days, but who is to say it can't find more energy to grow some more? Only time will tell...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 27, 2020, 09:36:42 PM
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind @ Surface + Total Precipitable Water
Large GiFS!
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Rod on July 27, 2020, 09:52:27 PM
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: Freegrass on July 27, 2020, 10:11:37 PM
I'm very surprised that this storm isn't growing bigger with all that energy around. But that's probably my lack of knowledge about those weather systems.

It'll be interesting to see what will happen to the ice NE of Greenland. HYCOM is saying that the ice there is very weak. Time will tell...
Title: Re: Nullschool Forecasts
Post by: igs on July 28, 2020, 12:01:17 AM
Wow! That is a scary forecast for the ice!

Thank you for posting these Freegrass.

True that and just imagine what will happen to the now slightly dispersed ice in warmer surrounding seas.

Area is on the drop and lowest already and won't fall back anytime soon and extent will follow suit with a few major successive drops once the dispersed junks of ice hat a few days time to melt.

Of course we all dunno the weather until it happens but currently it looks that way.