Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Juan C. García on January 02, 2020, 04:58:28 AM

Title: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 02, 2020, 04:58:28 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 1st, 2020:
     12,432,220 km2, an increase of 77,710 km2.
     2020 starts the year being the 8th lowest on record.
     The 10 lowest years: 2010 to 2020, except for 2012!!!  ;)
     2012 is the 16th lowest year, with 12,746,295 km2, 314,075 above 2020.
     I highlighted 2020. It is not easy to see at the original ADS graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 02, 2020, 02:02:19 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,432,220 km2(January 1, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 78 k, 46 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,468 k, 530 k (6.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 7,938 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 357 k more than 2016
- Extent is 145 k more than 2018
- Extent is 92 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 80.7 % of extent gain for the the season done, 70 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recent days have seen mostly well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.0 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi. Russia well above average temperatures, Alaska + Canada very cold.

Also a wind down the Fram over the next couple of days.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 02, 2020, 05:39:08 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,400,787 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,400,787    km2      
 142,445    km2   >   2010's average.
 252,393    km2   >   2019
-296,567    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     26    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -20    k   loss
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     18    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -0    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -20    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 26 k, 31 k LESS than the 2010's average of 57 k.

- 2020 Area  more than the 2010's average by 142 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 252 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 768 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.0 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days,  Bering Sea looking very cold, with persistent north winds from the Chukchi. Russia well above average temperatures, Alaska + Canada very cold.

Also a wind down the Fram over the next couple of days.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 03, 2020, 04:51:49 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 2nd, 2020:
     12,474,725 km2, an increase of 42,505 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 10 lowest years (2010 to 2020, except for 2012)
     Highlighted: 2016 & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on January 04, 2020, 01:59:38 PM
Topic unlocked again.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2020, 02:16:31 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,526,837 km2(January 3, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 52 k, 2 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,562 k, 528 k (6.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,034 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 263 k more than 2017
- Extent is 3 k more than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 81.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 67 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.33 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.45 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.9 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm, Canada & Alaska cold.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 04, 2020, 03:08:58 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3rd January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,480,088 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,480,088    km2      
 138,345    km2   >   2010's average.
 116,449    km2   >   2019
-304,781    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     46    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     39    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -15    k   loss
 Other Seas___     22    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     23    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain

Daily gain 46 k, 0 k LESS than the 2010's average of 46 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 138 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 116 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days and on this day at average.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +0.9 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm, Canada & Alaska cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 05, 2020, 04:52:07 AM
Topic unlocked again.

Thank you, Neven.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 4th, 2020:
     12,577,322 km2, an increase of 50,485 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 10 lowest years (2010 to 2020, except for 2012).
     Highlighted: 2016 & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 05, 2020, 02:51:10 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,577,322 km2(January 4, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 13 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,613 k, 542 k (6.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,071 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 207 k more than 2017
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 66 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record by 0.48 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 05, 2020, 03:40:31 PM
Quote
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
Interesting that extant is actually less than we were last year.
Area is a little more, however.
Does this give us any tea leaves for the coming melting season?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 05, 2020, 03:59:22 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,542,113 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,542,113    km2      
 150,730    km2   >   2010's average.
 60,556    km2   >   2019
-281,114    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     62    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     47    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     21    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     13    k   gain
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     14    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    15    k   gain

Daily gain 62 k, 12 k MORE than the 2010's average of 50 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 138 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 61 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 760 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

After recent high gains in area for 11 days, below average gain for 5 days and on this day at average.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +1.6 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on January 05, 2020, 09:42:55 PM
I took the monthly extent value for December 2019 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average December extent is now 12,69 M km². December 2019 had an average extent of 11,95 M km², which is 0,74 M km² less than that average and the fifth lowest ever recorded since 1978.
The rapid re-freeze now also into the peripheral seas (see gerontocrat's daily postings) pushed the actual value above the red long term linear trend line by 0,64 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this December should have been at 11,31 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has nevertheless increased by two digits (-0,0560 instead of -0,0558).

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 05, 2020, 10:43:23 PM
Quote
- Extent is 13 k LESS than 2019
Interesting that extant is actually less than we were last year.
Area is a little more, however.
Does this give us any tea leaves for the coming melting season?

Both are above the 2010's average though. Can't imagine being able to tease out a forecast from these measurements.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 06, 2020, 05:28:04 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 5th, 2020:
     12,602,251 km2, an increase of 24,929 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 11 lowest years on Jan 5th (coincidentally 2010 to 2020).
     Highlighted the years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019 & 2016) and 2020.

     Edit: Coincidentally also, the 15 lowest years on Jan 5th are the 15 last years: 2006 to 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 06, 2020, 11:35:34 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,602,251 km2(January 5, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 25 k, 19 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 44k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,638 k, 523 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,115 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 179 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 65 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.3 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 06, 2020, 03:44:43 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,600,587 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,600,587    km2      
 156,615    km2   >   2010's average.
 10,162    km2   >   2019
-262,103    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     58    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     35    k   gain
 Central Seas__     6    k   gain
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     17    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     13    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______     7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    16    k   gain

Daily gain 58 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 53 k.

- 2020 Area now more than the 2010's average by 157 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 10 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 723 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. Might see an effect on area gain in the next few days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.3 to +1.5 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth arriving from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 07, 2020, 05:04:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 6th, 2020:
     12,621,025 km2, an increase of 18,774 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the 15 lowest years on Jan 6th (coincidentally 2006 to 2020).
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 07, 2020, 11:01:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,621,025 km2(January 6, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 19 k, 26 k LESS than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 45k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,657 k, 497 k (6.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,160 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 231 k more than 2017
- Extent is 40 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 59 k (0.5%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 82.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 64 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 07, 2020, 03:17:04 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,650,803 km2
                                 
[Total Area         
 11,650,803    km2      
 157,135    km2   >   2010's average.
-21,757    km2   <   2019
-245,672    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     50    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     19    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    13    k   gain

Daily gain 50 k, 0 k MORE than the 2010's average of 50 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 157 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 22 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 703 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. Might see a greater effect on area gain in the next few days.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 08, 2020, 05:01:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 7th, 2020:
     12,658,673 km2, an increase of 37,648 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 08, 2020, 10:40:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,658,673 km2(January 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 38 k, 9 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 29k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,694 k, 506 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,188 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 322 k more than 2017
- Extent is 53 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 68 k (0.5%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 63 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recently has seen some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.48 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up in a couple of days.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 08, 2020, 05:25:06 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,712,342 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,712,342    km2      
 177,035    km2   >   2010's average.
-11,229    km2   <   2019
-226,635    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     62    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     24    k   gain
 Central Seas__     20    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     16    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain

Daily gain 62 k, 20 k MORE than the 2010's average of 42k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 177 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 11 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 731 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

Daily Extent gains have stalled in 2020. I expected to see a greater reduction in area gain . Wrong again.

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
It looks like a tale of two halves - Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering may warm up soon.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea still happening.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 09, 2020, 05:09:46 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 8th, 2020:
     12,699,873 km2, an increase of 41,200 km2.
     2020 is now 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 09, 2020, 12:10:29 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,699,873 km2(January 8, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 41 k, 16 k MORE than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,736 k, 522 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,214 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 371 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 84 k (0.7%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 62 days on average to maximum.

We are well into the period when usually extent gains slow down - recent days continue to see  some well above average gains.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 09, 2020, 04:23:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,768,604 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,768,604    km2      
 198,832    km2   >   2010's average.
 6,788    km2   >   2019
-211,927    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     28    k   gain
 Other Seas___     20    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____    -8    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 56 k, 22 k MORE than the 2010's average of 34 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 199 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.6 to +1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 09, 2020, 04:44:52 PM
Quote
- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 199 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 767 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
We are almost tied with 2019, which was a prelude to a spring with the lowest areas on record.
Don't celebrate yet.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pauldry600 on January 09, 2020, 06:32:12 PM
Yes Spring will tell the tale.

Id expect a lot of fast melt for a time as a lot of ice only a couple of months old due to late freezeup.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 09, 2020, 08:46:10 PM
6 seas still in play as regards area. NSIDC area graphs attached

Okhotsk Sea - average daily area gains so far
Bering Sea - in recovery mode (for how long?)
Hudson Bay - almost full up at an average time.
Baffin Bay - continuing average area daily gains from a well below average minimum.


Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 09, 2020, 08:52:44 PM
NSIDC area graphs attached for the last 2 seas of the 6 seas still in play as regards area

Greenland Sea - Area currently at 2010's average
Barents Sea - Area continues at well above 2010's average

Whoops - forgot the St Lawrence Sea, which is late starting significant refreeze
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 10, 2020, 05:11:19 AM
They took a little more time than normal. Now I have a clue of why, but not yet of where...

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 9th, 2020:
     12,676,988 km2, a drop of -22,885 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 10, 2020, 11:14:07 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,676,988 km2(January 9, 2020)

- Extent gain loss on this day 23 k, 68 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 45 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,713 k, 454 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,259 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 351 k more than 2017
- Extent is 108 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 16 k (0.1%) more than the 2010's average.

- on average 83.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 61 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.26 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.38 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side warm to very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 10, 2020, 03:26:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,794,438 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,794,438    km2      
 194,868    km2   >   2010's average.
-3,572    km2   <   2019
-226,327    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     26    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -10    k   loss
 Central Seas__     18    k   gain
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____    -15    k   loss
 Barents ______    -14    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    6    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain

Daily gain 26 k, 8 k LESS than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 195 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 4 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 794 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.5 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering warming after being very cold recently.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea into the Barents Sea continue for a couple of days more..
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: etienne on January 10, 2020, 03:37:25 PM
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Since we are in the freezing season, it is also interesting to check the years following the minimums.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 11, 2020, 04:53:25 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 10th, 2020:
     12,664,374 km2, a drop of -12,614 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record (and back to under 2010's average).
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 11, 2020, 05:00:30 AM
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Since we are in the freezing season, it is also interesting to check the years following the minimums.
Hi etienne.

I have been including 15 years on the graph because 2012 is the most important of all the years and it is now in that position. I usually include less years on the graph, to make easy to follow the lowest years on each day. In a way, the ADS lines are thin, so I also highlight some years, not always the same.

In which years are you interested?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 11, 2020, 08:28:24 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,676,988 km2(January 9, 2020)

- Extent gain loss on this day 13 k, 69 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 56 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,700 k, 386 k (4.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,315 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 328 k more than 2017
- Extent is 179 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 52 k (0.4%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 84.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 60 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.19 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.31 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.7 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: etienne on January 11, 2020, 12:44:48 PM

In which years are you interested?

I like very much what you do and can check myself the graphs when I wonder something. I just thought that a minimum has a freezing season before it that might have prepared it and one after it that support the consequences, and both are interesting to look at.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 11, 2020, 11:52:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,805,775 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,805,775    km2      
 179,549    km2   >   2010's average.
-19,803    km2   <   2019
-250,805    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     11    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -13    k   loss
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____    -15    k   loss
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    7    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 11 k, 16 k LESS than the 2010's average of 27 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 180 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 20 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 800 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.7 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 12, 2020, 06:36:19 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 11th, 2020:
     12,710,538 km2, an increase of 46,164 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2020, 11:11:55 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,710,538 km2(January 11, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 46 k, 11 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 57 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,746 k, 375k (4.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,372 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 314 k more than 2017
- Extent is 112 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 64 k (0.5%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 59 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.18 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.30 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 12, 2020, 03:53:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,822,028 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,822,028    km2      
 163,731    km2   >   2010's average.
-21,906    km2   <   2019
-271,932    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     16    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -11    k   loss
 Central Seas__     7    k   gain
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____    -12    k   loss
 Barents ______    -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 16 k, 16 k LESS than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 163 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 22 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 781 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +1.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm, Canada & Alaska cold. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea now look set to continue but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast developing.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 13, 2020, 04:53:46 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 12th, 2020:
     12,813,537 km2, a century increase of 102,999 km2.
     2020 is now 7th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with ADS lowest minimum (2012, 2019, 2016 & 2007) and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2020, 10:47:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,813,537 km2(January 12, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 103 k, 60 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,849 k, 435 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,414 k.
- Extent is 7th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 435 k more than 2017
- Extent is 47 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 3 k (0.0%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 58 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.24 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.36 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2020, 03:52:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,839,921 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,839,921    km2      
 146,598    km2   >   2010's average.
-20,933    km2   <   2019
-289,268    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     18    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -7    k   loss
 Central Seas__     6    k   gain
 Other Seas___     19    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -11    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     7    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain

Daily gain 18 k, 17 k LESS than the 2010's average of 35 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 147 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 21 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 774 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +3.0 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 14, 2020, 04:49:08 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 13th, 2020:
     12,835,393 km2, an increase of 21,856 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 14, 2020, 11:40:10 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,835,393 km2(January 13, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 22 k, 10 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,871 k, 425 k (5.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,446 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 478 k more than 2017
- Extent is 31 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 13 k (0.1%) less than the 2010's average.

- on average 85.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 57 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.23 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.35 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.9 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 14, 2020, 03:16:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,858,581 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,858,581    km2      
 123,456    km2   >   2010's average.
-18,808    km2   <   2019
-308,967    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     6    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -14    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______     11    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 19 k, 23 k LESS than the 2010's average of 42 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 123 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 19 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 773 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies range from +2.9 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds are heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 15, 2020, 04:58:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 14th, 2020:
     12,919,142 km2, an increase of 83,749 km2.
     2020 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2020, 11:15:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 12,919,142 km2(January 14, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 84 k, 34 k less more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 8,955 k, 459 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,496 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 531 k more than 2017
- Extent is 13 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 21 k (0.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 86.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 56 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.27 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.39 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast. This pattern looks looks set to continue for some time.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: echoughton on January 15, 2020, 12:45:08 PM
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 15, 2020, 03:16:18 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,897,388 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,897,388    km2      
 119,422    km2   >   2010's average.
 12,140    km2   >   2019
-308,267    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     39    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     22    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -2    k   loss
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -11    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     22    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 39 k, 4 k LESS than the 2010's average of 43 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 119 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 12 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 797 km2
- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi warming considerably, with extreme +ve temp anomalies spreading to over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but maybe changes on the horizon..
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phil. on January 15, 2020, 03:41:23 PM
Extent gain on this day 84 k, 34 k less more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 50 k,
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: charles_oil on January 15, 2020, 09:59:41 PM
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

Plus one - many thanks for all the regular data - hard work and much appreciated !
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 16, 2020, 04:53:13 AM
Keep up the great work, geron and Juan...sounds like a 70s pop group
GERON AND JUAN!!!
But I thank you for the thankless (not anymore) daily task!

Plus one - many thanks for all the regular data - hard work and much appreciated !
You are welcome.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 15th, 2020:
     13,014,754 km2, an increase of 95,612 km2.
     2020 is now 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2020, 02:59:36 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,014,754 km2(January 15, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 96 k, 41 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 55 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,051 k, 500 k (5.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,551 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 594 k more than 2017
- Extent is 26 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 21 k (0.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 86.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 55 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.9 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi very warm, with extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but looks like significant changes on the horizon..
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 16, 2020, 03:52:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  11,955,812 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 11,955,812    km2      
 139,102    km2   >   2010's average.
 53,067    km2   >   2019
-291,566    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     58    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     38    k   gain
 Central Seas__     2    k   gain
 Other Seas___     18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____     9    k   gain
 Barents ______     26    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 58 k, 19 k MORE than the 2010's average of 39 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 139 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 53 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 859 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.9 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side relatively warm to relatively very warm. Bering and Chukchi very warm, with extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean. Canada & Alaska and the Atlantic front cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea, but cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast.

This pattern of warmth and winds looks looks set to continue for a bit longer but looks like significant changes on the horizon..
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on January 16, 2020, 09:38:13 PM
I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on January 17, 2020, 12:24:55 AM
I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....

The satellite records only began in 1979
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 17, 2020, 02:45:37 AM
I'll take "1979" ice extent and area (and volume).  Beats where we're going.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 17, 2020, 06:04:40 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 16th, 2020:
     13,063,241 km2, an increase of 48,487 km2.
     2020 is 8th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 17, 2020, 06:13:40 AM
I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: coelho on January 17, 2020, 10:15:31 AM
I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....
So there's 'only' a 10% ice loss since the 1980s, correct? That's way less than I would assume based on the alarming messages.

Of course I see the trend and of course it IS alarming, but I'm just surprised that it's way less than I thought.


PS. Why these bizarre questions for a post? I'm a reader but I have not much knowledge. How should I know which river flows into Laptev Sea  ??? ???
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 17, 2020, 12:17:30 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,063,241 km2(January 16, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 48 k, 6 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 42 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,099 k, 506 k (5.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,593 k.
- Extent is 8th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 566 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 68 k (0.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 54 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.8 to -0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering will switch from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 17, 2020, 01:31:27 PM
I wish that Geron and Juan could report on ice areas and extents as large as they were in the 1970s.....
You could go to "Sea Ice Extent around Antarctica", currently 13th lowest and greater than 6 years from the 1980s and 1990s.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg244870.html#msg244870

But if you read the next post you will see my speculation that increased sea ice in the Antarctic might not be a good thing

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1759.msg244871.html#msg244871
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 17, 2020, 03:57:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,000,402 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,000,402    km2      
 150,494    km2   >   2010's average.
 67,038    km2   >   2019
-298,358    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     45    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     36    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -6    k   loss
 Other Seas___     15    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -9    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______     23    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    13    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss

Daily gain 45 k, 12 k MORE than the 2010's average of 33 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 150 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 67 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 900 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.

Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.8 to -0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering will switch from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

NullSchool
Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on January 17, 2020, 05:02:19 PM
So there's 'only' a 10% ice loss since the 1980s, correct? That's way less than I would assume based on the alarming messages.

Of course I see the trend and of course it IS alarming, but I'm just surprised that it's way less than I thought.

That's because it's winter and the ice can't move further than the shores, whether it's 1980 or 2020. If it could move further, it wouldn't go nearly as far in 2020 as it could in 1980.

Besides, we are talking extent which is 2D. Volume would paint a more accurate picture. Especially during summer, where I believe sea ice volume loss comes down to around 75%.

Quote
PS. Why these bizarre questions for a post? I'm a reader but I have not much knowledge. How should I know which river flows into Laptev Sea  ??? ???

You can look it up. I'm trying to keep spambots at bay.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 18, 2020, 05:46:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 17th, 2020:
     13,120,139 km2, an increase of 56,898 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 18, 2020, 07:39:01 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,120,139 km2(January 17, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 57 k, 33 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,156 k, 539 k (6.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,617 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 517 k more than 2017
- Extent is 42 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 102 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 53 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to -0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south for a day or two.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 18, 2020, 03:14:55 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,032,147  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,032,147    km2      
 146,974    km2   >   2010's average.
 38,046    km2   >   2019
-316,785    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     32    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -6    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______     15    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -14    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily gain 32 k, 3 k LESS than the 2010's average of 35 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 147 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 38 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 900 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.

Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +3.3 to -0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front cold will switch to modest +ve temp anomalies.

NullSchool
Southerly warm winds currently in the Bering Sea and entering the Pacific Gateway are likely to dissipate soon.
Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold strong contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like diminishing allowing a more general dominance of winds and warmth from the south for a day or two.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 18, 2020, 10:32:58 PM
The Barents Sea ice daily area gain continues to be impressively strong,
while The Bering Sea  ice daily area loss continues to be impressively strong and a dip in Chukchi area.


However I would not be surprised to see a reversal after the next 3 or 4 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 19, 2020, 05:27:55 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,174,294 km2(January 18, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 54 k, 33 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,210 k, 572 k (6.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,638 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 523 k more than 2017
- Extent is 76 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 134 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 87.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 52 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.38 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.50 million km2.
____________________________________________________________
Ice Gain Outlook??

+ve SST (but diminishing) anomalies persist in parts of the Bering Sea, the southern end of Baffin Bay, and a patch south of Svalbard.

GFS 5 day outlook.
Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +2.9 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front  mostly cold or very cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like being very variable.

Overall the outlook seems more favourable than not for the strong recovery in sea ice extent to continue.
____________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 19, 2020, 06:48:45 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 18th, 2020:
     13,174,294 km2, an increase of 54,155 km2.
     2020 is 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 19, 2020, 03:26:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,066,112  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,066,112    km2      
 150,532    km2   >   2010's average.
-800    km2   <   2019
-333,205    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     34    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -14    k   loss
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -0    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     14    k   gain
 Greenland____     9    k   gain
 Barents ______     8    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain

Daily gain 34 k, 4 k MORE than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 151 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by <1 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 914 km2
- 2020 area 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS 5 day outlook.

Overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +2.9 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
Eurasia side mostly relatively warm.
Bering switching from warm to cold.
The extreme +ve temp anomalies over most of the Arctic Ocean will diminish to modest +ve anomalies.
Canada & Alaska will say mostly cold.
The Atlantic front  mostly cold or very cold.

Strong winds and warmth from the Atlantic travelling up the Norwegian Sea as far as the Barents Sea.
The cold contra winds heading down close to FJL, Svalbard & the East Greenland coast look like being very variable.

Overall the outlook seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 20, 2020, 05:08:12 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 19th, 2020:
     13,260,794 km2, an increase of 86,500 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2020, 01:02:05 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,260,794 km2(January 19, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 87 k, 44 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,297 k, 616 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,681 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 492 k more than 2017
- Extent is 111 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 178 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 51 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.54 million km2.
________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2020, 03:13:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,103,918 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,103,918    km2      
 159,983    km2   >   2010's average.
-27,342    km2   <   2019
-350,425    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     38    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     29    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -6    k   loss
 Other Seas___     15    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    13    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 38 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 28 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 160 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 27 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 924 km2
- 2020 area 7th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +1.6 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 21, 2020, 05:48:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 20th, 2020:
     13,292,492 km2, an increase of 31,698 km2.
     2020 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 21, 2020, 11:17:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,292,492 km2(January 20, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 32 k, 2 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,328 k, 617 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,711 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 86 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 179 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 50 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.54 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.9 to -1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 21, 2020, 04:41:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,143,799 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,143,799    km2      
 170,071    km2   >   2010's average.
-48,366    km2   <   2019
-361,038    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     40    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain
 Central Seas__     3    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 40 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 170 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 48 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 921 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.9 to -1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 22, 2020, 05:06:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km2, an increase of 40,141 km2.
     2020 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2020, 12:01:17 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,332,633 km2(January 21, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 40 k, 3 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,368 k, 620 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,748 k.
- Extent is 11 th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 359 k more than 2017
- Extent is 90 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 182 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 88.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 49 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.43 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.55 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 22, 2020, 01:00:45 PM
When does the freezing season normally end, again? About the Vernal Equinox? Or earlier?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pleun on January 22, 2020, 01:23:12 PM
usually around the date of the maximum ?  see post above yours.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 22, 2020, 01:28:32 PM
Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2020, 03:24:39 PM
Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?
At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 22, 2020, 03:33:07 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,199,967 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,199,967    km2      
 195,604    km2   >   2010's average.
-63,066    km2   <   2019
-336,135    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     17    k   gain
 Central Seas__     14    k   gain
 Other Seas___     25    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____     0    k   gain
 Barents ______    -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    23    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 15 k MORE than the 2010's average of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 196 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 63 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 920 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies diminishing from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 22, 2020, 04:32:25 PM
When does the freezing season normally end, again? About the Vernal Equinox? Or earlier?
March 13 (or thereabouts), according to the JAXA graph Gerontocrat just published, excerpt below (yellow arrow and red type added):
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on January 22, 2020, 10:10:12 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km2, an increase of 40,141 km2.
     2020 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

Interesting statistical bit to note - the 6th through 15th years on that chart lie in a band only 250k km2 wide, with 2020 right about square in the middle of it.  Still deciding what meaning it has to over all system behavior.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 23, 2020, 03:34:53 AM
Thanks, pleun.
Should have looked closer.
Wow, the date is all the way from Feb 15 to 31 Mar. Why the wide variation, different air masses passing over the Pole? I don't recall, does the thaw have such a wide range of ending dates?
At maximum sea ice extent /area change is of thin ice in peripheral seas.  Thus a small variation in winds / temperatures can halt or increase sea ice extent enough for an early or late maximum date.

Note that for a month or so after extent/area maximum, the Arctic Ocean is damn cold, and ice thickness continues to increase at a greater pace than ice is lost in the periphery. Hence ice VOLUME maximum is in April.

And since volume is the most important metric, I would base the end of the freeze season on this.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 23, 2020, 04:51:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 22nd, 2020:
     13,382,493 km2, an increase of 49,860 km2.
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 23, 2020, 05:01:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 21st, 2020:
     13,332,633 km2, an increase of 40,141 km2.
     2020 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

Interesting statistical bit to note - the 6th through 15th years on that chart lie in a band only 250k km2 wide, with 2020 right about square in the middle of it.  Still deciding what meaning it has to over all system behavior.
I wonder if this is the time when more ASI implies that the ocean loses less heat. The worst September minimums seem to have more ice now. But I never know what is going to happen in September. So let's wait and see.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2020, 12:32:09 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,382,493 km2(January 22, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 12 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 38 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,418 k, 632 k (7.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,786 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 380 k more than 2017
- Extent is 126 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 195 k (1.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 89.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 48 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.56 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.0 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2020, 03:12:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,265,459 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,265,459    km2      
 228,991    km2   >   2010's average.
-44,155    km2   <   2019
-295,868    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     65    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     19    k   gain
 Central Seas__     18    k   gain
 Other Seas___     28    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     16    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     9    k   gain
 Greenland____     0    k   gain
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    14    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    21    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 65 k, 33 k MORE than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 229 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 44 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 893 km2
- 2020 area 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.0 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 24, 2020, 06:13:36 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 23rd, 2020:
     13,472,422 km2, an increase of 89,929 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on January 24, 2020, 08:17:20 AM
If 2020 marches further upwards, it will soon fall off of the "top 15" list. 2009, 2007 and 2004 are not out of reach, when increases well above average continue...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 24, 2020, 12:50:37 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,472,422 km2(January 23, 2020)

After being 2nd lowest in September and after a very slow start to the freezing season, the recovery in sea ice extent and area is impressive, perhaps unmatched except for the 2012-13 freezing season.

Caveat -still could see a moderation in extent gain in the last 7 weeks or so of this freezing season


- Extent gain on this day 90 k, 50 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,508 k, 683 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,825 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 391 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 245 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 89.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 47 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.4 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Aaska & much of the Canadian far north and the Atlantic Front cold to very cold.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on January 24, 2020, 02:55:55 PM
Wow, these extent gains are seriously impressive! I wonder if they'll translate to a less worrying spring and summer this year.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Quantum on January 24, 2020, 03:02:29 PM
Wow, these extent gains are seriously impressive! I wonder if they'll translate to a less worrying spring and summer this year.
Feels like 2012/2013 all over again. Increased bering sea ice can't be a bad thing though, will help protect the chukchi. On the other hand the continents will also heat up faster if there is reduced snowcover/lake ice.
 
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 24, 2020, 03:32:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,334,287 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,334,287    km2      
 266,956    km2   >   2010's average.
-9,437    km2   <   2019
-247,564    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     69    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     17    k   gain
 Central Seas__     22    k   gain
 Other Seas___     30    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     14    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    13    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    19    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain

Daily gain 69 k, 38 k MORE than the 2010's average of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 267 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 9 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 842 km2
- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.4 to -1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 25, 2020, 04:57:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 24th, 2020:
     13,491,629 km2, an increase of 19,207 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2020, 12:20:05 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,491,629 km2(January 24, 2020)

And just for a change a below average extent gain on this day

- Extent gain on this day 19 k, 29 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 48 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,527 k, 654 k (7.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,873 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 30 k more than 2017
- Extent is 159 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 216 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 46 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2020, 03:23:21 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,386,296 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,386,296    km2      
 292,545    km2   >   2010's average.
-5,144    km2   <   2019
-211,396    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     52    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     5    k   gain
 Central Seas__     19    k   gain
 Other Seas___     29    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     14    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    10    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 52 k, 26 k MORE than the 2010's average of 26 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 293 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 5 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 78 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up the Norwegian Sea and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia down the Greenland East Coast

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 26, 2020, 05:17:12 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 25th, 2020:
     13,527,040 km2, an increase of 35,411 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 26, 2020, 09:34:08 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,527,040 km2(January 25, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 35 k, 4 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 39 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,563 k, 651 k (7.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,912 k.
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 311 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 213 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 45 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.2 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 26, 2020, 10:22:03 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,424,178 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,424,178    km2      
 302,224    km2   >   2010's average.
-6,516    km2   <   2019
-185,671    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     38    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     3    k   gain
 Central Seas__     13    k   gain
 Other Seas___     22    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain

Daily gain 38 k, 10 k MORE than the 2010's average of 28 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 302 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 7 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 732 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.2 to -0.9 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable for and against the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 27, 2020, 04:58:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 26th, 2020:
     13,563,010 km2, an increase of 35,970 km2.
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2020, 01:49:24 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,563,010 km2(January 26, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 36 k, 22 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,599 k, 672 k (7.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,926 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 193 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 44 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable .

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2020, 03:48:58 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 January 2020 (5 day trailing average)  12,445,265 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,445,265    km2      
 297,690    km2   >   2010's average.
-5,202    km2   <   2019
-183,017    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     21    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     5    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     4    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     6    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -10    k   loss
 Barents ______     10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain

Daily gain 21 k, 5 k LESS than the 2010's average of 26 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 298 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 5 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 703 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable for and against the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 28, 2020, 04:52:33 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 27th, 2020:
     13,569,681 km2, an increase of 6,671 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2020, 11:02:14 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,569,681 km2(January 27, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 7 k, 0 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 7 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,605 k, 672 k (7.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,933 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 492 k more than 2017
- Extent is 120 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 234 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 43 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2020, 03:10:36 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,459,027 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,459,027    km2      
 288,868    km2   >   2010's average.
-12,363    km2   <   2019
-196,136    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     14    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__     15    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -13    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     1    k   gain
 Greenland____    -13    k   loss
 Barents ______     20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    9    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 14 k, 9 k LESS than the 2010's average of 23 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 289 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 12 k
- 2020 is more than 2017 by 705 km2
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.4 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems equally favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2020, 06:31:46 PM
A look at the seas still in play for this freezing season as regards sea ice area change.

Okhotsk Sea - well above 2010's average.
Bering Sea - gain continuing.

Outlook for both seas looks favourable for more sea ice area gain.

Hudson Bay - pretty much at maximum. May be some wobbles but probably of little significance.
                   Last post until melt begins
Baffin Bay - continues to be at well below 2010's average.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 28, 2020, 06:37:46 PM
A look at the other seas still in play for this freezing season as regards sea ice area change.

St. Lawrence - it must be cold there as sea ice area quite high,

Barents Sea - sea ie still increasing at a rate of knots while
the Greenland Sea Ice Area wobbles around the 2010's average.

Warm winds coming up from the Atlantic still not reaching the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 29, 2020, 04:51:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 28th, 2020:
     13,592,834 km2, an increase of 23,153 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 29, 2020, 12:05:27 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,592,834 km2(January 28, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 23 k, 11 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 12 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,629 k, 683 k (7.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,946 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 489 k more than 2017
- Extent is 115 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 245 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 90.9% of extent gain for the the season done, 42 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, with signs the warmer southerlies may be in the ascendant.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 29, 2020, 03:57:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,475,900  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,475,900    km2      
 284,581    km2   >   2010's average.
-13,422    km2   <   2019
-212,083    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     17    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     19    k   gain
 Central Seas__     13    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -16    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -0    k   loss
 Greenland____    -12    k   loss
 Barents ______     28    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 17 k, 4 k LESS than the 2010's average of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 284 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 13 k
- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -1.4 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite the last 2 days of low sea ice area gain.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 30, 2020, 04:54:06 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 29th, 2020:
     13,625,071 km2, an increase of 32,237 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 12:04:29 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,625,071 km2(January 29, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 32 k, 5 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 27 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,662 k, 688 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 8,973 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 502 k more than 2017
- Extent is 150 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 250 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 91.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 41 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.49 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.61 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems perhaps more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 03:47:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,515,460 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,515,460    km2      
 299,846    km2   >   2010's average.
 21,429    km2   >   2019
-203,814    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     40    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     38    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -10    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____    -10    k   loss
 Barents ______     31    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Daily gain 40 k, 16 k MORE than the 2010's average of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 300 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 21 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.8 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 03:50:02 PM
Quote
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on January 31, 2020, 04:57:26 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 30th, 2020:
     13,686,680 km2, an increase of 61,609 km2.
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 31, 2020, 02:31:50 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,686,680 km2(January 30, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 62 k, 21 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,722 k, 708 k (7.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,014 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 506 k more than 2017
- Extent is 187 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 270 k (2.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 91.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 40 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum maximum - i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record - in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.51 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.64 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.2 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 31, 2020, 03:25:40 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,571,344 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,571,344    km2      
 326,887    km2   >   2010's average.
 66,252    km2   >   2019
-178,561    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     56    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     48    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -5    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     19    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     25    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss

Daily gain 56 k, 27 k MORE than the 2010's average of 29 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 327 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 66 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from +0.2 to -2.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly cold to very cold.
The Atlantic Front a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 03:38:44 PM
Quote
We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum in March 2017
You mean the record maximum?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: dnem on January 31, 2020, 04:25:06 PM
The lowest maximum on record. The minimum maximum as it were.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on January 31, 2020, 05:36:32 PM
Quote
We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 202k less than the record minimum in March 2017
You mean the record maximum?
I meant to write the - record minimum maximum - i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on January 31, 2020, 10:49:59 PM
When are we going to blast past the minimum maximum? I'm calling January February 6th.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 10:56:41 PM
When are we going to blast past the minimum maximum? I'm calling January 6th.
Isn't that in the past?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on February 01, 2020, 01:03:36 AM

That's what's meant by 'blast past'?

I'm sure he meant February...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 01, 2020, 04:43:42 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

January 31st, 2020:
     13,734,882 km2, an increase of 48,202 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2020, 01:33:21 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,734,882 km2(January 31, 2020)

I am of the opinion that the sea ice extent and extent gain in January 2020 can be regarded as an event

- Extent gain on this day 48 k, 12 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 36 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,771 k, 721 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,050 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 518 k more than 2017
- Extent is 255 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 283 k (2.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 39 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 143k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.53 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.65 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly vey cold to extemely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2020, 01:53:35 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT January Average

The first graph shows the simple average of JAXA Arctic Sea Ice daily extents for January, and the deviation from the linear trend.

The January 2020 deviation from the trend is the highest above the trend in the satellite record since 1979.

The table shows the current extent compared with previous year's maxima. Not far to go to pass by several of the previous years' maxima. As the days go by it will be interesting to see how many previous year's maxima will be exceeded and how early.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Niall Dollard on February 01, 2020, 02:37:27 PM

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies declining from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.

I would rephrase that by saying the anomaly (negative, as it is) is growing not declining !
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 01, 2020, 03:53:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 January 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,632,374 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,632,374    km2      
 356,071    km2   >   2010's average.
 124,504    km2   >   2019
-145,246    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     61    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     49    k   gain
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     2    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     17    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     12    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss

Daily gain 61 k, 29 k MORE than the 2010's average of 32 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 356 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 125 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering / Chukchi, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 02, 2020, 05:35:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 1st, 2020:
     13,771,405 km2, an increase of 36,523 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2020, 11:57:43 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,771,405 km2(February 1, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 37 k, 19 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 18 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,801 k, 739 k (8.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,068 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 466 k more than 2017
- Extent is 345 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 301 k (2.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 38 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.55 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.67 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2020, 03:16:10 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,674,424  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,674,424    km2      
 361,347    km2   >   2010's average.
 179,667    km2   >   2019
-125,820    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     42    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__     3    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     17    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     15    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    3    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss

Daily gain 42 k, 5 k MORE than the 2010's average of 37 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 361 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 180 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 02, 2020, 03:25:29 PM
Might we perhaps add the word "volume" to the title of this thread at some point in the not too distant future?

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1223924947644534785
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 02, 2020, 07:11:17 PM
I dusted off the cobwebs of my spreadsheet of NSIDC SEA ICE AREAin JAXa format to see how that looks c.f. JAXA Extent. so here is

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA  12,674,424  km2(February 1, 2020)analysed according to my JAXA analysis

- Area gain on this day 42 k, 5 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 37 k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9,765 k, 552 k (6.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,213 k.
- Area  is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 855 k more than 2016
- Area is 514 k more than 2017
- Area is 180 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 361 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.3% of Area gain for the the season done, 42 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily Area gains are low but highly variable.
Area is already 40k MORE than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2016

Projections.

Average remaining Area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.44 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 of 12.63 million km2 by 0.81 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.5 to -1.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, but the southerlies not reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 03, 2020, 06:03:45 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 2nd, 2020:
     13,770,924 km2, a small drop of -481 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2020, 12:22:22 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,924 km2(February 2, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 40 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,807 k, 698 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,108 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 400 k more than 2017
- Extent is 324 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 260 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 37 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is now merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.50 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.63 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.2 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain on this day.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2020, 03:35:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,703,174 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,703,174    km2      
 353,531    km2   >   2010's average.
 236,982    km2   >   2019
-116,110    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     29    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -13    k   loss
 Other Seas___     10    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     20    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     15    k   gain
 Greenland____     16    k   gain
 Barents ______    -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss

Daily gain 29 k, 7 k LESS than the 2010's average of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 354 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 237 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.2 to -1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, Alaska and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite below average gain on this day.
________________________________________________________________________
[/quote]
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 03, 2020, 04:30:11 PM
I would again like to express my gratitude to both of you for your posts tracking extent and area progress through the freeze season. I visit daily.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: weatherdude88 on February 03, 2020, 06:48:27 PM
For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008, 1996, and 1991. In 3 days, 2009 will have 24,000 square kilometers less sea ice extent, than the 2.2.2009 value. If 2020 gains more than 160,000 square kilometers over the next 3 days, we will fall to 16th place for the date.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 04, 2020, 04:47:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 3rd, 2020:
     13,770,577 km2, a small drop of -347 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 3rd. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gandul on February 04, 2020, 05:52:40 AM
For 2.2.2020, the NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice extent value is 14.42 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 116,000 square kilometers from the previous day.

NSIDC sea ice extent is in 15th place for the date. 2020 has more sea ice extent than 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 for the date.

The next 4 closest years are 2009, 2008,...

In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Observer2019 on February 04, 2020, 10:00:59 AM
In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.

Take into account that this is all based on data from 1979 and on. There is no real data from before ( there are some very bad satellite pictures from 1975'ish). Before that there is reported anecdotal data from explorers and locals that in some cases point to low arctic ice.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2020, 11:30:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,577 km2(February 3, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 28 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,806 k, 670 k (7.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,136 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 405 k more than 2017
- Extent is 342 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 232 k (1.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 92.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 36 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is still merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the lat 2 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold may fool me yet again.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on February 04, 2020, 12:02:46 PM
That's 2 zeroes in a row! Will we see a third?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 04, 2020, 01:43:49 PM
In other words, the 17 years with lowest sea ice extent for the date are among the first 20 years of the 21st Century. A clear perspective of long-term trend of global warming, thanks weatherdude.

Take into account that this is all based on data from 1979 and on. There is no real data from before ( there are some very bad satellite pictures from 1975'ish). Before that there is reported anecdotal data from explorers and locals that in some cases point to low arctic ice.

You might want to look at  this 1947 report from DMI on the state of the Arctic Sea Ice. (https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/rediscover/datalist/phpFileTree/dmi_sea_ice_maps/1947/1947.pdf)

As you probably know, 1947 was at close height of the mid-19th century warm peak. The August extent in the DMI report is of a similar magnitude to what the winter extent is likely to be this year, so between 2 and 3 times more than this decade.

So any anectodal evidence for low sea ice extent from before 1979 will have to be taken with a ton of salt. Or rather, tied to a rock and thrown overboard. Any and all documentation from before 1979 shows greater sea ice extent than what we are seeing this last decade.

This paper from 2001  (https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/EB43308A2CA1015C4B8B1D3D0B5C4761/S0260305500264513a.pdf/div-class-title-20th-century-sea-ice-variations-from-observational-data-div.pdf)shows an estimate for the 20th century. August minimum in 1947 would have been around 12 million km2.

And another paper for 2009 (https://www.geo.umass.edu/faculty/jbg/Pubs/Polyak%20etal%20seaice%20QSR10%20inpress.pdf) seems to agree roughly, taking the estimate back to 1880, which may well have been the maximum sea ice extent since the last ice age.

Having said that, apparently we have to go at  least back to around 1200 CE (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/225584230_Unprecedented_low_twentieth_century_winter_sea_ice_extent_in_the_Western_Nordic_Seas_since_AD_1200) to see extent similar to what we have been seeing in the last decade.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 04, 2020, 03:06:10 PM
binntho:
1947 was in the 19th Century?
Do you mean 1847, or the 20th Century?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2020, 03:40:18 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,696,375 km2

A surprise - a sea ice area LOSS of 7K
                                 
Total Area         
 12,696,375    km2      
 315,702    km2   >   2010's average.
 264,393    km2   >   2019
-140,072    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -7    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -23    k   loss
 Other Seas___     3    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     11    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     18    k   gain
 Barents ______    -25    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss

Daily LOSS 7 k, 38 k less than the 2010's average gain of 31 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 316 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 264 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.3 to +1.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

I am now totally confused on whether the overall the outlook is more favourable or less favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2020, 03:53:57 PM
NSIDC AREA GRAPHS

PACIFIC GATEWAY

What a difference a year makes - Bering & Chukchi recovery.

ATLANTIC FRONT
Greenland Sea still below 2010's average.
Barents Sea well above 2010's average, but currently losing ice.

Strong winds but variable in direction likely to continue.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2020, 04:00:59 PM
NSIDC AREA GRAPHS

Okhotsk & St Lawrence above 2010's average

Hudson Bay a surprise drop.

Baffin Bay now nearly at 2010's average.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on February 04, 2020, 04:03:09 PM
binntho:
1947 was in the 19th Century?
Do you mean 1847, or the 20th Century?
Presenility hits again! The 20th Century of course!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Fritz on February 04, 2020, 04:15:45 PM
I'm looking up the weather forecasts of several stations around the arctis. I believe it correlates with sea ice extent and area. For this reason I expected a pause or decline in extension and area in these days. For me it's bothersome to search for weather forecasts, because I didn't find yet a site, which shows it all at first glimpse. In the next days we will see an increase, because the temperatures go down. What I don't know is the influence of warmer ocean currents. That should also be visible on some sites. It would be great to have it all here in combination.
Another number astounds me. The Hudson Bay sea ice area shrinks (1,103,974 km² now) although the temperatures around the Hudson Bay are very cold. What's the reason?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 04, 2020, 08:53:34 PM
Here are 2 graphs of NSIDC Extent divided by area as %- i.e how dispersed the ice is. If the result is 100% it means the seas are completely filled.

The graph attached is for the 7 central seas - the High Arctic. It shows that this year in early Feb the seas are 99% full, which is a 2nd lowest in the satellite record. This is another indicator of how the ice has recovered. Tomorrow a look at Wipneus' volume data.

Has volume also recovered somewhat, especially in these central seas ?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 05, 2020, 05:19:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 4th, 2020:
     13,770,861 km2, a small increase of 284 km2.
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 4th. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2020, 01:01:09 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,770,577 km2(February 4, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 0 k, 16 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,807 k, 654 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,153 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 434 k more than 2017
- Extent is 337 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 216 k (1.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 93.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is still merely 107k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.46 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.58 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.7 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold will probably fool me yet again.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2020, 01:07:09 PM
Variable daily change now and for the next month or two.

3 days of zero daily change is not that unusual at this time. I attach a table of of daily change in recent years in the beginning of February. As you can see, there are times when several days of extent losses happen before extent gain resumes.

The plume of forward projections of JAXA arctic extent also show this high variability. Yet another reason why NSIDC uses monthly averages as the main basis or their analyses.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 05, 2020, 04:29:30 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 4 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,670,346 km2

Another surprise - a sea ice area LOSS of 26K
                                 
Total Area         
 12,670,346    km2      
 269,873    km2   >   2010's average.
 270,701    km2   >   2019
-187,434    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -21    k   loss
 Other Seas___     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     8    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____     16    k   gain
 Barents ______    -27    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    8    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss

Daily LOSS 26 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 20 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 270 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 271 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.7 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold will probably fool me yet again.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 06, 2020, 04:44:28 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 5th, 2020:
     13,853,440 km2, an increase of 82,579 km2.
     2020 is now 14th lowest on record.
     2010 has not an official value for Feb 5th. Average used.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2020, 12:41:09 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,853,440 km2(February 5, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 83 k, 76 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 7 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,889 k, 730 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,159 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 530 k more than 2017
- Extent is 412 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 292 k (2.2%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 93.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 34 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.
Extent is only 25 k less than the record minimum maximum ( i.e the lowest maximum in the satellite record ) in March 2017

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.54 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.66 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.8 to +0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2020, 04:14:32 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,659,132 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,659,132    km2      
 244,744    km2   >   2010's average.
 272,834    km2   >   2019
-223,290    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -11    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -20    k   loss
 Other Seas___     13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain

Daily LOSS 11 k, 25 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 245 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 273 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.8 to +0.6 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 07, 2020, 04:48:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 6th, 2020:
     13,939,559 km2, an increase of 86,119 km2.
     2020 is 14th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.

P.S. Only  60.5K km2 to be above 14 million km2.
      Could it happen tomorrow? So soon? I'm surprised!
      Some years we made polls to bet if this milestone could happen or not ...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on February 07, 2020, 05:23:14 AM
This winter looks like it will be a winter that stands out in the general trend. What do you think is the reason for this? It looks like there is some extreme cold over the bering sea rn
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Lord M Vader on February 07, 2020, 05:41:11 AM
Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: blumenkraft on February 07, 2020, 06:47:56 AM
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 11:57:20 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2(February 6, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 86 k, 65 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,975 k, 795 k (8.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,180 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 592 k more than 2017
- Extent is 426 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 358 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 61 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 33 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.9 to +0.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 12:07:21 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2(February 6, 2020)
Addendum


- Extent on this day is 61 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 33 days on average to maximum. I think that is an event

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's extent with previous years' maxima.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 07, 2020, 03:01:08 PM
Juan C: which are the other years next to 2004? I.e the years at place 16-20.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 03:13:48 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,688,572 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,688,572    km2      
 273,730    km2   >   2010's average.
 293,308    km2   >   2019
-219,095    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     29    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     14    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -13    k   loss
 Other Seas___     29    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     6    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain

Daily gain 29 k, 29 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0.5k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 274 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 293 k
- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from -0.9 to +0.7 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 07, 2020, 07:39:39 PM
NSIDC January Update @ http://nsidc.org/articseaicenews/
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 07, 2020, 09:24:38 PM
I took the monthly extent value for January 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average January extent is now 14,25 M km². January 2020 had an average extent of 13,65 M km², which is 0,60 M km² less than that average.
The higher than average extent gains in this month pushed the actual value well above the red long term linear trend line by 1,09 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this January should have been at 13,16 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has thus decreased by two digits (-0,0558 instead of -0,0560).

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 08, 2020, 04:58:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 7th, 2020:
     13,989,242 km2, an increase of 49,683 km2.
     2020 is 14th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2020, 11:42:23 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,989,242 km2(February 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 50 k, 39 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 11 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,025 k, 834 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,191 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 638 k more than 2017
- Extent is 470 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 396 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 32 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2020, 11:49:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,559 km2(February 7, 2020)
Addendum


Extent on this day is 111 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017, with on average 32 days on average to maximum.

If extent gain stopped on this day 2020 maximum would be 5th lowest in the satellite record (3rd lowest on the previous day). And this 5th position is where it stops for a bit

Only 1 question left. How high can it go?

Table attached compares current day's sea ice extent with previous years' maxima.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 08, 2020, 03:20:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,724,547  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,724,547    km2      
 313,005    km2   >   2010's average.
 302,774    km2   >   2019
-209,184    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     36    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     0    k   gain
 Other Seas___     27    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     15    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    22    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    20    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Daily gain 36 k, 39 k more than the 2010's average LOSS of 3k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 313 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 303 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.8 to -0.8 celsius over the next 5 days.
The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue despite zero gain in the last 3 days. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 09, 2020, 05:12:30 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 8th, 2020:
     14,017,548 km2, an increase of 28,306 km2, breaking the 14M km2 milestone.
     2020 is 14th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 09, 2020, 02:55:46 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,017,548 km2(February 8, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 28 k, 3 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,053 k, 832 k (9.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,222 k.
- Extent is 14th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 660 k more than 2017
- Extent is 460 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 394 k (2.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 139 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 93.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 31 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.64 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.76 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: weatherdude88 on February 09, 2020, 04:07:26 PM
The NSIDC northern hemisphere sea ice area daily values show big gains over the last 4 days.

For 2.9.2020, the raw daily value is 12.985 millions of square kilometers. This is an increase of 61,496 square kilometers from the previous day.

The last 4 days have now seen increases from the previous day of 72,109, 148,507, 52,689, and 61,496 square kilometers of sea ice area (334,801 square kilometers in total) respectively.

We currently have significant freezing momentum.

The 2017 freezing season had a maximum sea ice area value of 12.837 millions of square kilometers on 3.6.2017. We are already 147,686 square kilometers above the 2017 freezing season single daily maximum sea ice area value.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 09, 2020, 04:33:28 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,783,977 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,783,977    km2      
 368,506    km2   >   2010's average.
 323,827    km2   >   2019
-181,525    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     59    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     26    k   gain
 Central Seas__     9    k   gain
 Other Seas___     25    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     15    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______     18    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain 59 k, 55 k more than the 2010's average gain of 4k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 369 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 324 k
- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 09, 2020, 08:32:02 PM
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average)  12,783,977  km2(February 8, 2020)
- Area gain on this day 59 k, 55 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 4k,
- Area gain in this freezing season to date is 9.874 k, 490 k (5.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,384 k.
- Area is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Area is 522 k more than 2016
- Area is 324 k MORE than 2019
- Area is 369 k MORE than the 2010's average.

- Area is already 154 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2016.

- on average 93.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 35 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily area gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining area gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 13.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 by 0.82 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

Overall the outlook still seems more favourable than not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue. But beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Feeltheburn on February 10, 2020, 12:32:09 AM
The NSIDC shows 2020 in 15th place on Feb. 8, just now surpassing 2004.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 10, 2020, 05:53:59 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

ADS has not updated the values.
If someone post the data, as soon as it is published.

Thanks.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: MrGreeny on February 10, 2020, 09:01:24 AM
Still hasn't updated but will keep an eye out.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2020, 04:46:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,836,472    km2      
 418,532    km2   >   2010's average.
 352,001    km2   >   2019
-164,417    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     52    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     14    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______     15    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Daily gain 52 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average gain of 2k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 419 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 352 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by only 164 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.7 to -0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 10, 2020, 05:30:09 PM
NSIDC Total Sea Ice Area as at 9 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,836,472 km2

ADDENDUM


The table attached compares current sea ice area with previous years' maxima. Current area is already greater than 2 previous years' maxima,  (2016 by 206K), and likely by at least 2 more years in the next day or two.

It is even possible that this year's maximum could be greater than the 2000's average maximum.
____________________-
Caveat:
The first graph - the plume of projected sea ice area from previous years' daily change - shows how variable that change is during progress to maximum.
__________________________
The second graph shows how the 365 day trailing average of Arctic sea ice area is now very much on the rise, and will continue until such time the current sea ice area becomes less than that of one year ago.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 11, 2020, 04:57:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 9th, 2020:
     14,033,312 km2, an increase of 15,764 km2.

February 10th, 2020:
     14,012,340 km2, a drop of -20,972 km2.
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 11, 2020, 01:25:19 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,012,340 km2(February 10, 2020)

I hope none are in too much distress from a day's missing Jaxa Update.


- Extent loss (a -ve gain) on this day 21 k, 31 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 10 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,048 k, 790 k (8.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,258 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2017
- Extent is 363 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 353 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- Extent is 134 k MORE than the record low maximum of March 2017.


- on average 94.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 29 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.9 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 11, 2020, 03:23:24 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,875,584 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,875,584    km2      
 454,260    km2   >   2010's average.
 373,273    km2   >   2019
-161,126    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     39    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     18    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____    -10    k   loss
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain 39 k, 36 k more than the 2010's average gain of 3 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 454 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 33 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by only 161 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range from +0.9 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.
At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev from interior Western Russia.
A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 11, 2020, 03:27:57 PM
It is the Bering & Barents Seas that are really doing the biz at the moment.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 11, 2020, 04:55:16 PM
Thanks again for the updates...a must visit for me...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 12, 2020, 04:52:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 11th, 2020:
     13,992,038 km2, a drop of -20,302 km2.
     2020 is 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2020, 12:09:26 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,992,038 km2(February 11, 2020)

2 days of 20k daily losses

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 20 k, 34 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,028 k, 756 k (8.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,272 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 641 k more than 2017
- Extent is 297 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 318 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 94.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 28 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.60 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.72 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Overall I now have not a clue (nor did I ever), as to whether the outlook is more favourable or not favourable for the recovery in sea ice to continue in the peripheral seas. Beware the vagaries of winds, warmth & cold.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: roger white on February 12, 2020, 12:14:09 PM
Very interesting what a cold winter it is in the arctic with the sea ice extent greater than 9 out of the 10 past years.
Indeed the sea ice this winter seems greater than the 2010's average.
Looks like a 2-3% decadal decrease in arctic sea ice since the 80's & no signs of acceleration of this trend decade by decade.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 12, 2020, 04:01:01 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,884,326 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,884,326    km2      
 450,944    km2   >   2010's average.
 365,954    km2   >   2019
-184,808    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     9    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -1    k   loss
 Central Seas__     3    k   gain
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     11    k   gain
 Greenland____    -12    k   loss
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    9    k   gain
Daily gain 9 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average gain of 12 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 451 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 366 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by only 185 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +1.6 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 13, 2020, 04:43:42 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 12th, 2020:
     13,939,657 km2, a drop of -52,381 km2.
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2020, 10:47:20 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,939,657 km2(February 12, 2020)

2 days of 20k daily losses followed by a 52k loss is a substantial wobble but not unprecedented.

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 52 k, 84 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,975 k, 672 k (7.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,304 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 542 k more than 2017
- Extent is 184 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 234 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 94.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 27 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.48 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.60 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.1 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture as the warmth from the rising sun fights the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gandul on February 13, 2020, 11:38:05 AM
And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2020, 03:59:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,869,832 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,869,832    km2      
 415,358    km2   >   2010's average.
 338,681    km2   >   2019
-226,369    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -15    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -15    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -8    k   loss
 Other Seas___     8    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     9    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     10    k   gain
 Greenland____    -8    k   loss
 Barents ______    -26    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 15 k, 36 k less than the 2010's average gain of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 415 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 339 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by only 226 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.1 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 13, 2020, 04:21:07 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,869,832 km2
Some graphs


The Bering Sea's impressive sea ice gains are now at the 2000's average.
The Baffin Sea is still at a low area.

On the Atlantic Front it is probably mostly to do with the strong north and south winds in recent weeks.
The Greenland Sea ice area has been impressively wobbly, sea ice area mostly below the 2010's average since the beginning of December.

The Barents Sea ice area has been mostly at or above the 2000's average since early December, and now seems to have caught a dose of the wobbles virus. Blame the very strong polar vortex as it crosses the Atlantic (at 250 hpa up to 350km/h ).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 13, 2020, 08:15:18 PM
And this is happening with a polar vortex on steroids and the Arctic Oscillation in an all-time, record-breaking maximum. What gives? Textbook says the Arctic should be very cold and the ice pack  expanding.

If you simply read gerontocrat's comprehensive post, you will have your answer. Fluctuations are normal this time of year.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 14, 2020, 05:09:53 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 13th, 2020:
     13,903,299 km2, a drop of -36,358 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2020, 11:00:06 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,903,299 km2(February 13, 2020)

2 days of 20k daily losses followed by a 52k and a 36k loss is a substantial wobble but not unprecedented.

- Extent loss (i.e. -ve gain) on this day 36 k, 87 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 51 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,939 k, 584 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,355 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 467 k more than 2017
- Extent is 43 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 147 k (1.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 95.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 26 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.39 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.51 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.7 to +2.9 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2020, 11:09:56 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,903,299 km2(February 13, 2020)
Postscript - the Perils of Projections[/b]

I attach a table of the daily change of sea ice extent in February in recent years. Ups and downs like a demented yo-yo. It is the same in March.

Thus the plume of forward projections looks like the data came from a random number generator.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Downpuppy on February 14, 2020, 02:19:59 PM
So you're saying we can't call maximum & open the Melting Season thread?
Drat! :-\
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: karl dubhe2 on February 14, 2020, 04:15:15 PM


I attach a table of the daily change of sea ice extent in February in recent years. Ups and downs like a demented yo-yo. It is the same in March.


So, could we start a thread about the Demented Yo-Yo season?   (kidding!)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 14, 2020, 04:32:27 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,835,329 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,835,329    km2      
 357,211    km2   >   2010's average.
 275,541    km2   >   2019
-275,660    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -35    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -15    k   loss
 Other Seas___     12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -2    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain
 Greenland____    -2    k   loss
 Barents ______    -32    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 35 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average gain of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 357 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 276 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 276 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +1.7 to +2.9 celsius over the next 5 days.

The Bering /Chukchi/Okhotsk, and Canadian far North mostly very cold to extremely cold.
The Atlantic Front remains and will remain a battleground between warm southerlies heading up from the Atlantic and cold Northerlies out of the CAB & Russia, and the southerlies perhaps reaching the Barents Sea on occasion.

At the same time significant +ve anomalies occasionally entering the Kara/Laptev into the CAB from interior Western Russia.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice). To add to that, the extra strong polar vortex in the Atlantic spawned Storm Ciara and now Storm Dennis which look like it has caused, is causing and will cause havoc in the Atlantic Front.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much as to make projections a mugs' game.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 15, 2020, 05:19:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 14th, 2020:
     13,930,708 km2, an increase of 27,409 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2020, 12:18:19 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,930,708 km2(February 14, 2020)

Back to a sea ice extent gain.

- Extent gain on this day 27 k, 27 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 54 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,966 k, 558 k (5.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,409 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 384 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 120 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 95.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 25 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.36 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.48 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.1 to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much that I am just sitting back and watching with a coffee.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 15, 2020, 03:42:03 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,828,103 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,828,103    km2      
 314,007    km2   >   2010's average.
 215,196    km2   >   2019
-291,879    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -7    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -19    k   loss
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain
 Greenland____     12    k   gain
 Barents ______    -27    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 7 k, 41 k less than the 2010's average gain of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 314 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 215 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 292 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note how wind/warmth has reached the Barents & the Kara Seas.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +2.1 to +3.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

This is the time of year when area and extent go up and down so much that I am just sitting back and watching with a coffee.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 16, 2020, 04:49:48 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 15th, 2020:
     13,994,194 km2, an increase of 63,486 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 16, 2020, 09:28:01 AM
The lowest September years were 2012, 2019, 2016, and 2007.
If I look at the actual Sea Ice Extent, the years 2013, 2020, and 2008 (each of them five months after very low minima) have a higher than average Sea Ice Extent. The only exception is 2017, but in this case we had record low values in Oct/Nov/Dec 2016, and not enough time for a re-freeze to an extent needed to be above average as well.
Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 01:51:31 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,994,194 km2(February 15, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 63 k, 22 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,030 k, 580 k (6.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,449 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 320 k more than 2017
- Extent is 49 k more than 2019
- Extent is 143 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 24 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.39 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.51 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4 to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).
Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 05:15:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,815,738 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,815,738    km2      
 258,683    km2   >   2010's average.
 157,252    km2   >   2019
-317,014    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -12    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -18    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     21    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -3    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______    -19    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    17    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 12 k, 55 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 43 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 29 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 157 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 317 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note how wind/warmth has reached the Barents & the Kara Seas.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.4 to +2.8 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 50+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 16, 2020, 07:11:54 PM

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 07:14:35 PM

Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?

The latter IMHO but there are others here who can offer more.
The freezing thread is where one hopes to find the whys and wherefores of what is happening. You might be lucky if you take a look.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2020, 07:28:47 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) - 3 Graphs

On the Atlantic Front the winds and warmth are producing area losses in the Barents and Kara Seas, while a contrary wind is encouraging ice export into the Greenland Sea.

Might last a few days more.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 17, 2020, 05:00:40 AM
Is this a kind of a bounce-back, i.e. a negative feedback loop, or just an expression of natural variability?
I think it is natural variability.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 16th, 2020:
     13,979,513 km2, a drop of-14,681 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 17, 2020, 12:25:53 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,979,513 km2(February 16, 2020)

- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 15 k, 36 k less than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,015 k, 545 k (5.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,471 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 270 k more than 2017
- Extent is 60 k more than 2019
- Extent is 107 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 23 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.35 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.47 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 17, 2020, 03:30:36 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,813,605 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,813,605    km2      
 211,735    km2   >   2010's average.
 109,561    km2   >   2019
-336,393    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -7    k   loss
 Other Seas___     11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______    -8    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    5    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    12    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Daily LOSS (i.e. -ve gain) of 2 k, 47 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 45 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 212 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 110 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 336 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.2 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).

Indeed so messy and so quickly changing that the best thing to do is to go to https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.t2anom and look for yourself.

For a better look at the winds goto NullSchool, e.g. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-45.71,79.73,562/loc=88.996,88.996
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 18, 2020, 04:44:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 17th, 2020:
     13,952,752 km2, a drop of -26,761 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2020, 08:46:52 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,952,752 km2(February 17, 2020)

- Extent loss (-ve gain) on this day 27 k, 22 k more than the average loss (of the last 10 years) of 5 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,989 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,466 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 230 k more than 2017
- Extent is 26 k more than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.3% of extent gain for the the season done, 22 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.4 to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 18, 2020, 03:22:59 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,830,513 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,830,513    km2      
 188,707    km2   >   2010's average.
 85,345    km2   >   2019
-343,122    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     17    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas__     2    k   gain
 Other Seas___     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Daily gain of 17 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 40 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 189 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 85 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 343 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.4 to +2.4 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now 55+ days after the winter solstice).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 19, 2020, 04:57:40 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 18th, 2020:
     13,955,872 km2, a small increase of 3,120 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2020, 10:22:39 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,955,872 km2(February 18, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 3 k, 0 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 9,992 k, 523 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,469 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 225 k more than 2017
- Extent is 7 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 85 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 21 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.31 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.43 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2020, 04:12:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,855,739  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,855,739    km2      
 183,900    km2   >   2010's average.
 86,420    km2   >   2019
-343,523    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     25    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     12    k   gain
 Central Seas__     4    k   gain
 Other Seas___     9    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Daily gain of 25 k, 5 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 30 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 184 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 86 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 344 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.8 to +2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 20, 2020, 04:46:19 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 19th, 2020:
     13,984,579 km2, an increase of 28,707 km2.
     2020 is 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2020, 11:23:23 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 13,984,579 km2(February 19, 2020)

Current maximum 2020 is still 14.03 million km2 on the 9th February.

- Extent gain on this day 29 k, 7 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,020 k, 529 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,491 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 206 k more than 2017
- Extent is 28 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 20 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.32 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 20, 2020, 03:10:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,860,204  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,860,204    km2      
 164,618    km2   >   2010's average.
 70,281    km2   >   2019
-361,474    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     4    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     1    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -10    k   loss
 Other Seas___     14    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     12    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______    -4    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    3    k   gain
St Lawrence___    6    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain of 4 k, 20 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 24 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 165 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 70 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 361 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.6 to +2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 21, 2020, 04:48:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 20th, 2020:
     14,099,241 km2, a century increase of 114,662 km2.  :o
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record (& even with 2012, the 11th lowest).
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 21, 2020, 10:22:29 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,099,241 km2(February 20, 2020)

There's a surprise. 115k extent increase and a new current maximum.

- Extent gain on this day 115 k, 95 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,135 k, 624 k (8.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,511k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 322 k more than 2017
- Extent is 14 k more than 2019
- Extent is 186 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 96.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 19 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.42 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 21, 2020, 03:53:33 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,878,752 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,878,752    km2      
 166,589    km2   >   2010's average.
 54,998    km2   >   2019
-352,563    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     18    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -16    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     17    k   gain
 Greenland____     3    k   gain
 Barents ______    -6    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Daily gain of 19 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 17 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 167 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 55 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 353 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +3.5 to +2.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America .
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 22, 2020, 04:46:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 21st, 2020:
     14,182,140 km2, an increase of 82,899 km2 (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 14th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on February 22, 2020, 03:10:33 PM
Wow, almost 200k in two days. Those are some rather impressive gains!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on February 22, 2020, 10:39:36 PM
Wow, almost 200k in two days. Those are some rather impressive gains!
Interesting in that it appears mostly to be via dispersion.  Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 22, 2020, 11:30:38 PM
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on February 23, 2020, 01:07:49 AM
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Yeah, I glanced at that but was looking originally at the raw numbers from JAXA.

Still trying to decide on meaning.  Some interesting points along the way... DMI 80N temperatures appear to be ramping up to where they are taking a run at 2016 for FDD's, difference being from the last few years, things are starting colder and potentially ending warmer.

I'll be watching volume numbers and am wondering if we've reached peak extent/area.  Even if we haven't I suspect we are close. 

Northern hemisphere snow numbers don't seem that unusual aside from Europe, and I'm wondering what impact that might have for over-all warming and possible effect on the Barents and Kara numbers over the next couple of weeks.  But if nothing else, the divergence between area vs extent rise implies a mobile pack, at least on the Atlantic side.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 23, 2020, 04:48:18 AM
Area hasn't climbed nearly as fast.

Especially if you look at Wipneus' high res version!
Interesting comments, jdallen & Jim  ;)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 22nd, 2020:
     14,226,335 km2, an increase of 44,195 km2 (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2020, 09:14:23 PM
Normal service will not be resumed for up to 2 weeks.
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".

Spasmodic postings at odd hours will hopefully continue.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,226,335 km2(February 22, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 44 k, 23 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,262 k, 705 k (7.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,557k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 414 k more than 2017
- Extent is 32 k more than 2019
- Extent is 267 k (1.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.1% of extent gain for the the season done, 17 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.51 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.63 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +4.0 to +1.7 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 23, 2020, 10:59:47 PM
Interesting comments, jdallen & Jim  ;)

The abnormally low UH AMSR2 area didn't last. Possibly an artifact of recent "weather", or actual refreezing of actual low concentration areas created by said weather?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 24, 2020, 01:49:36 AM
Normal service will not be resumed for up to 2 weeks.
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".

   The older one gets the more often that realization gets thrown in our face. 
   Best wishes for whatever you are dealing with.  And thanks for whatever you can squeeze in for ASI updates along the way.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: The Walrus on February 24, 2020, 02:51:03 AM
You are probably right Jim.  The ice will probably increase once the weather subsided.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 24, 2020, 04:52:04 AM
I was under the illusion that I was in control of my life - "events, dear boy, events".
Spasmodic postings at odd hours will hopefully continue.
Hope that everything will be fine, Gerontocrat. Best wishes from Mexico!

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 23rd, 2020:
     14,171,323 km2, a drop of -55,012 km2.
     2020 is now 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2020, 11:43:13 AM
It is snowing, so events have interrupted the events, which means here is a spasmodic posting.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,171,323 km2(February 23, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 55 k, 78 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 23 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,207 k, 627 k (6.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,580 k.
- Extent is 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k more than 2017
- Extent is 15 k more than 2019
- Extent is 189 k (1.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.4% of extent gain for the the season done, 16 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.43 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.55 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.7 to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Glen Koehler on February 24, 2020, 03:11:42 PM
OT - I see gerontocrat has 7439 posts and is classified as "'First-year ice".  My God, what do you have to do to reach 2nd year ice?  Not even going to ask what it takes to reach "MYI". ;D
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 24, 2020, 03:50:58 PM
No second year ice.
I think 10000 is multiyear ice.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2020, 07:33:21 PM
What's in a name?

I think Frazil is more me  -Frazil ice is a collection of loose, randomly oriented, plate or discoid ice crystals formed in supercooled turbulent water.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2020, 07:46:33 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,962,961  km2
                                 
Total Area
 12,962,961    km2      
 212,015    km2   >   2010's average.
 32,029    km2   >   2019
-265,281    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     30    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     32    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -19    k   loss
 Other Seas___     16    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     10    k   gain
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    16    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Daily gain of 30 k, 16 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 212 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 32 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 265 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.7 to +1.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 24, 2020, 07:58:25 PM
NSIDC Sea Ice Area as at 23 February 2020 (5 day trailing average)
Addendum


Both the Bering and Okhotsk Seas sea ice area continue an impressive climb

The Barents Sea ice area steep decline has stalled.

Off-shore winds and high +ve temperature from Siberia have done a mischief to the sea ice in the Kara Sea.

I am blaming the very strong polar vortex provoking stormy weather in The North Pacific and the Atlantic Front.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 25, 2020, 05:39:28 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 24th, 2020:
     14,097,689 km2, a drop of -73,634 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2020, 09:58:29 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT 14,097,689 km2(February 24, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 74 k, 91 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 17 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,133 k, 536 k (5.6%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,597 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 291 k more than 2017
- Extent is 23 k more than 2019
- Extent is 98 k (0.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 15 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.34 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.46 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.4 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now nearly 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia
This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 25, 2020, 07:48:28 PM
Has Kara Sea already passed its maximum this winter? It has lost an area of ca. 120 kkm² inthe last days...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 25, 2020, 08:24:54 PM
Neven is first year Ice. While multi year ice is technically possible there is none and I think that is the point
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 25, 2020, 08:35:37 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,992,571  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,992,571    km2      
 232,406    km2   >   2010's average.
 69,319    km2   >   2019
-238,534    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     30    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     31    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -11    k   loss
 Other Seas___     10    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     16    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain
 Greenland____     11    k   gain
 Barents ______     1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    14    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Daily gain of 30 k, 21k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 9 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 232 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 69 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 239 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +3.4 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 25, 2020, 09:01:30 PM
Neven is first year Ice. While multi year ice is technically possible there is none and I think that is the point
AbruptSLR and Sigmetnow are multiyear ice.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: blumenkraft on February 25, 2020, 09:09:38 PM
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).
If not, bugger off.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: interstitial on February 26, 2020, 04:36:31 AM
@Tom
your right my bad.
Better to say it is rare.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 26, 2020, 05:07:37 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 25th, 2020:
     14,082,564 km2, a drop of -15,125 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2020, 09:02:04 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,082,564 km2(February 25, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 15 k, 17 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,118 k, 519 k (5.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,599 k.
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 310 k more than 2017
- Extent is 64 k more than 2019
- Extent is 82 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 14 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.32 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.44 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.7 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2020, 09:59:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,002,775  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,002,775    km2      
 229,879    km2   >   2010's average.
 104,780    km2   >   2019
-237,619    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     20    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -17    k   loss
 Other Seas___     7    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     8    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     2    k   gain
 Greenland____     11    k   gain
 Barents ______     0    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    9    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Daily gain of 10 k, 3 k less than the 2010's average GAIN of 13 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 230 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 105 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 238 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.7 to +0.0 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 26, 2020, 10:34:22 PM
Kara Sea Ice area loss is impressive, but Bering Sea ice area gain is approaching astounding.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 27, 2020, 05:26:20 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 26th, 2020:
     14,168,505 km2, an increase of 85,941 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on February 27, 2020, 08:06:05 AM
Kara Sea Ice area loss is impressive, but Bering Sea ice area gain is approaching astounding.
The Kara loss disturbs more than the Bering gain reassures me.

That gain is still only about 100K km2 more than the 2010's average and still well under 2012/13.

The Kara loss has the potential to weaken the central pack much more than the Bering increase will strengthen it.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2020, 09:41:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,168,505 km2(February 26, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 86 k, 76 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 10 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,204 k, 595 k (6.2%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,609 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 205 k more than 2017
- Extent is 173 k more than 2019
- Extent is 158 k (1.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 13 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.40 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.52 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.5 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2020, 08:34:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,011,317  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,011,317    km2      
 231,782    km2   >   2010's average.
 161,075    km2   >   2019
-243,805    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     9    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     23    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -20    k   loss
 Other Seas___     5    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     5    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     6    k   gain
 Greenland____     11    k   gain
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -12    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Daily gain of 9 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 7 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 232 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 161 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 244 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

The warmth & offshore winds in Siberia now resulting in sea ice area loss extending from the Kara Sea to the Laptev Sea & the ESS.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.5 to +0.3 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now less than 4 weeks from the Spring equinox).

However, one constant still persists -very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

However, there are increasing signs that after 5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 28, 2020, 05:10:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Sorry guys, my Excel stop working…  :-\

If someone else can make the post. Thanks!
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

(I hope that I could fix it tomorrow…  :(   >:().

P.S. Big increase, from 14.17 M to 14.3 M km2. 130K km2 aprox.
New 2020 max.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2020, 09:29:44 PM
ASIF returns from the dead - or was it just me?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,295,372 km2(February 27, 2020)

Wot a large gain - the ups and downs in extent expected at this time of year are extra extreme this year

- Extent gain on this day 127 k, 140 k more than the average loss (of the last 10 years) of 13 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,331 k, 736 k (7.7%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,595 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 576 k more than 2017
- Extent is 336 k more than 2019
- Extent is 298 k (2.1%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.5% of extent gain for the the season done, 12 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.53 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.65 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.3 to +0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

But there are ever increasing signs that after 4-5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on February 28, 2020, 09:48:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 February 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,019,043 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,019,043    km2      
 239,783    km2   >   2010's average.
 231,047    km2   >   2019
-258,435    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     8    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     16    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -14    k   loss
 Other Seas___     5    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     3    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    4    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Daily gain of 8 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 0 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 240 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 231 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 258 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

The warmth & offshore winds in Siberia now resulting in sea ice area loss extending from the Kara Sea to the Laptev Sea & the ESS. It looks like in the days ahead Kara ice area loss will reverse into gain (offshore winds becoming onshore), while the Laptev and ESS might see accelerating ice area loss.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +2.3 to +0.2 celsius over the next 5 days.

A messy and rapidly changing picture, being the gathering strength of the annual battle of the warmth from the rising sun fighting the bitter cold of the Arctic Ocean (as we are now more than 2 months after the winter solstice).

However, one constant still in play seems to be very high +ve temperature anomalies over most of Siberia. This in contrast to expected below average temperatures for some time to come over most of northern North America extending to Baffin Bay, Greenland & the Barents.

But there are ever increasing signs that after 4-5 days this persistent weather pattern may be due for a significant change - but what to?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 29, 2020, 12:06:52 AM
gerontocracy:
I was getting database error also.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Archimid on February 29, 2020, 02:37:39 AM
Not just you. I'm glad it is back.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on February 29, 2020, 04:42:00 AM
Not just you. I'm glad it is back.
+ 1

I am going to be without Excel for 2 or 3 days. Just posting the graph these days.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 28th, 2020:
     14.35M km2, an increase of ~50K km2.
     New 2020 max record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on February 29, 2020, 08:33:55 AM
On behalf of Juan's not working Excel programme here the JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent data for Feb 28, 2020, sorted by value:
  1. 2018 13.73 M km²
  2. 2017 13.75 M km²
  3. 2015 13.82 M km²
  4. 2011 13.91 M km²
  4. 2019 13.91 M km²
  6. 2006 13.92 M km²
  7. 2016 13.94 M km²
(-) 2010s 14.02 M km²
  8. 2014 14.03 M km²
  9. 2007 14.10 M km²
10. 2010 14.24 M km²
11. 2005 14.25 M km²
12. 2012 14.34 M km²
13. 2020 14.35 M km²
14. 2013 14.51 M km²
15. 2009 14.57 M km²
16. 2004 14.60 M km²
(-) 2000s 14.64 M km²
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 01, 2020, 05:05:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 29th, 2020:
     14.35M km2, if I'm right with a manual calculation, a drop of only 4K km2.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 01, 2020, 10:07:52 AM
The 29th February does not exist in my spreadsheets.
So no postings on sea ice today.

50-50 chance of being able to post something tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 01, 2020, 12:59:47 PM
Oh no, the accursed leap day strikes again!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 02, 2020, 04:39:25 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 1st, 2020:
     14,386,278 km2, an increase of 38,052 km2.
     New 2020 max record.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
     
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 02, 2020, 11:55:25 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2(March 1, 2020)

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k, 35 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 56 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,384 k, 771 k (8.0%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,651 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 584 k more than 2017
- Extent is 477 k more than 2019
- Extent is 333 k (2.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 97.8% of extent gain for the the season done, 9 days on average to maximum.

We are into the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.56 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.68 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +1.5 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Downpuppy on March 02, 2020, 02:49:51 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2(March 1, 2020)

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k,

I think this is a 3 day gain. Leap day isn't in your spreadsheet, but I fear it's real.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 02, 2020, 04:28:43 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,386,278 km2(March 1, 2020)

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 91 k,

I think this is a 3 day gain. Leap day isn't in your spreadsheet, but I fear it's real.
My reality belongs to me, even though you are correct.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 02, 2020, 05:18:46 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,147,968  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,147,968    km2      
 359,325    km2   >   2010's average.
 482,807    km2   >   2019
-216,043    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     60    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     37    k   gain
 Central Seas__     15    k   gain
 Other Seas___     8    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     24    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
         
Kara_________    17    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Daily gain of 60 k, 56 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 359 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 483 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 216 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.

Kara ice area loss has reversed into gain (offshore winds becoming onshore), while the Laptev and ESS see some ice area loss.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +1.5 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 03, 2020, 05:59:36 AM
I'm back to routine posts...  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 2nd, 2020:
     14,412,259 km2, an increase of 25,981 km2 (And new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: nanning on March 03, 2020, 09:09:52 AM
Thank you for all your posts Juan.
I think it should be possible to put your Excel files on an usb stick and take them whereever you want.
I have my whole backup + files+ plug-in running linux/GNU system on an usb stick. If I put it in another computer, it will start up with my system and my desktop with my important files. In effect I carry my whole system wth me. This usb stick is behind a zipper in my wallet.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Fractious on March 04, 2020, 01:12:10 AM
It's getting down to the wire.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 04, 2020, 04:59:56 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 3rd, 2020:
     14,447,641 km2, an increase of 35,382 km2 (and new 2020 max).
     2020 is now 13th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 04, 2020, 05:07:07 AM
Thank you for all your posts Juan.
I think it should be possible to put your Excel files on an usb stick and take them whereever you want.
I have my whole backup + files+ plug-in running linux/GNU system on an usb stick. If I put it in another computer, it will start up with my system and my desktop with my important files. In effect I carry my whole system wth me. This usb stick is behind a zipper in my wallet.
Thank you for your comments, Nanning.
The true is that I don't use an Excel file that is mine, to make these posts. I just download the last ADS-NIPR-VISHOP file and work with it. It was impossible to do this work without the Excel program. I could use another computer, but I only have a permanent log-in on my computer.

I don't remember my original password to the ASIF, so I cannot log-in on another computer.  ::)  :-[ I hope I will not need it...  ;)

[Back to topic...]

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2020, 12:06:38 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,447,641 km2(March 3, 2020)

- Extent gain in the last 2 days 61 k, 15 k more than the average gain (of the last 10 years) of 46 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,483 k, 814 k (8.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,670 k.
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 634 k more than 2017
- Extent is 433 k more than 2019
- Extent is 376 k (2.7%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.6% of extent gain for the the season done, 7 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.59 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.71 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +0.7 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2020, 04:38:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,249,753  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,249,753    km2      
 425,267    km2   >   2010's average.
 552,161    km2   >   2019
-147,786    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     51    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     30    k   gain
 Central Seas__     11    k   gain
 Other Seas___     11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     2    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____     7    k   gain
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     20    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    13    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
A gain of 102 k in the last 2 days,, 62 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 36 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 425 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 552 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 148 k

- 2020 area 14th lowest in the satellite record.

In most seas ice area is gaining - at this time of year mostly meaning the gaps are filling in
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from +0.7 to -2.1 celsius over the next 5 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 05, 2020, 04:45:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 4th, 2020:
     14,435,822 km2, a drop of -11,819 km2.
     2020 is now 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 18 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 05, 2020, 12:17:46 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,435,822 km2(March 4, 2020)

- Extent LOSS on this day 12 k, 10 k more than the average LOSS (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,472 k, 804 k (8.3%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,668 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 606 k more than 2017
- Extent is 433 k more than 2019
- Extent is 366 k (2.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 6 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -0.4 to -2.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 06, 2020, 05:05:11 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 5th, 2020:
     14,395,557 km2, a drop of -40,265 km2.
     2020 is 12th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: echoughton on March 06, 2020, 09:34:03 AM
Max reached, perhaps?????
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 06, 2020, 10:11:48 AM
Max reached, perhaps?????

People speculated that two weeks ago, then we got a century gain. I don't think it's time to open the melting thread just yet! (Though Neven may disagree)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: blumenkraft on March 06, 2020, 11:40:18 AM
It has taken a lot of time and energy, successes and failures to build a library of spreadsheets and data sources. So it is a bit annoying to think people have to wade through a load of clutter to reach the data.

This is a data thread. So, please please please bring data or a new way of looking at the data (when discussion is great).

If not, bugger off.


Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2020, 01:51:57 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,395,557 km2(March 5, 2020)

With sea ice extent losses in the last 2 days of 52 k, now is the season for speculating on whether the maximum has been reached. However, this is the thread for data for all of 2020. In my extremely unhumble opinion, speculation on the date of maximum belongs on the 2019-290 freezing season thread.

- Extent LOSS on this day 40 k, 42 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 2 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,431 k, 761 k (7.9%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,670 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 537 k more than 2017
- Extent is 351 k more than 2019
- Extent is 324 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 98.7% of extent gain for the the season done, 5 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains are low but highly variable.

Projections.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date produces a maximum of 14.57 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.2 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2020, 03:29:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 5 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,339,134  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,339,134    km2      
 468,233    km2   >   2010's average.
 557,571    km2   >   2019
-72,888    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     39    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas     2    k   gain
 Central Seas__     21    k   gain
 Other Seas___     17    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     3    k   gain
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    14    k   gain
Laptev_______    8    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    11    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
A gain of 89 k in the last 2 days,, 43 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 46 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 468 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 558 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 72 k

- 2020 area 13th lowest in the satellite record.

In most seas ice area is gaining - at this time of year mostly meaning the gaps are filling in
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.2 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days. Especially cold at times in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 06, 2020, 07:45:21 PM
Kara Sea Ice area has almost recovered to its level two weeks ago, and so Laptev seems to follow it with a time-lag.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gandul on March 06, 2020, 11:54:12 PM
<snip, don't compare people who ask to stay on-topic to Stasi or Gestapo, thanks; N.>
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on March 07, 2020, 02:36:24 AM
<snip>
Replied in PM.  Please don't continue this subthread.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 07, 2020, 06:07:20 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 6th, 2020:
     14,345,802 km2, a drop of -49,755 km2.
     2020 is 11th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on March 07, 2020, 08:55:10 AM
A couple more days of drops like this and i'm calling maximum
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2020, 01:12:38 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,345,802 km2(March 6, 2020)

Sea ice extent losses in the last 3 days of 102 k from the current maximum on 3rd March. Speculation on whether the maximum has been reached reaches fever pitch. 

Tempers are frayed! Tut, tut.


- Extent LOSS on this day 50 k, 71 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,382 k, 691 k (7.1%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,691 k.
- Extent is 12th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 468 k more than 2017
- Extent is 279 k more than 2019
- Extent is 253 k (1.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.0% of extent gain for the the season done, 4 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 8 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies in Northern Europe and most of Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges. What are people saying on the freezing season thread?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on March 07, 2020, 03:27:18 PM
Slater's Projection is up and running for those interested.

https://cires1.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 07, 2020, 04:24:43 PM
IIRC the last melting season thread started March 1.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2020, 07:34:42 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 6 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,357,582  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,357,582    km2      
 470,874    km2   >   2010's average.
 541,833    km2   >   2019
-52,978    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     19    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -0    k   loss
 Central Seas__     22    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -3    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     2    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -6    k   loss
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    2    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Sea ice area gain on this day 19 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average GAIN of 16 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 471 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 542 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 53 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -2.5 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies in Northern Europe and most of Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 07, 2020, 07:43:00 PM
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Monthly update for Feb 2020 out. Quite a recovery in sea ice extent.

A positively persistent, persistently positive Arctic Oscillation
March 4, 2020
Quote
Sea ice extent for February 2020 tracked below average, ranking as the thirteenth lowest monthly average in the satellite record. A brief pause in ice growth in the middle of February was related to the regional wind pattern. As has been the case for the past several months, the Arctic Oscillation was in a persistently positive phase. This manifested as unusually low sea level pressure over the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean and high pressure over Eastern Eurasia, extending eastward into Arctic Canada.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 08, 2020, 05:03:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 7th, 2020:
     14,290,131 km2, a drop of -55,671 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on March 08, 2020, 05:27:16 AM
One more day and I think we should start the melting season thread
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2020, 07:29:52 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,290,131 km2(March 7, 2020)

Sea ice extent losses in the last 4 days of 158 k from the current maximum on 3rd March of 14.45 milion km2.

- Extent LOSS on this day 56 k, 72 k less than the average GAIN (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,326 k, 619 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,707 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 197 k more than 2019
- Extent is 182 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 3 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 8 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
An oddity:
- The average date of maximum is 10th March when calculated from the simple average of the date of maximum  in each of the last 10 years.
- The average date of maximum is 16th March when calculated from the simple average of the future daily sea ice gains/losses in March of the last 10 years.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 08, 2020, 09:26:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 7 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,362,233  km2
                                 
Total Area         
 13,362,233    km2      
 469,564    km2   >   2010's average.
 527,086    km2   >   2019
-46,662    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     5    k   gain
 Peripheral Seas    -6    k   loss
 Central Seas__     26    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     6    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -4    k   loss
 Greenland____    -3    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    10    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Sea ice area gain on this day 5 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 470 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 527 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 47 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies reducing from -1.0 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 09, 2020, 04:42:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 8th, 2020:
     14,281,584 km2, a drop of -8,547 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Fractious on March 09, 2020, 08:14:57 AM
The reports of my extent are greatly exaggerated.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2020, 12:30:25 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,281,584 km2(March 8, 2020)

Sea ice extent losses in the last 5 days of 167 k from the current maximum on 3rd March of 14.45 milion km2.

- Extent LOSS on this day 9 k, 1 k more than the average loss  on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,317 k, 619 k (6.4%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,698 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 424 k more than 2017
- Extent is 197 k more than 2019
- Extent is 181 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- on average 99.2% of extent gain for the the season done, 2 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.7 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2020, 06:03:29 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 8 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,349,814  km2

The tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas.
A sea (ice) change starts?

                                 
Total Area         
 13,349,814    km2      
 452,952    km2   >   2010's average.
 494,980    km2   >   2019
-60,210    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -12    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss
 Central Seas__     21    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -25    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     10    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______    -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 5 k, 17 k less than the 2010's average gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 453 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 495 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a mere 60 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.7 to -3.2 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi. Add possible storms and a really really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 10, 2020, 04:50:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 9th, 2020:
     14,296,768 km2, an increase of 15,184 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 16 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 10, 2020, 06:00:11 AM
If the 2020 max happened on March 3rd, then 2020 is the year with the 10th lowest max.

Source: [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 10, 2020, 06:16:24 AM
If the 2020 max happened on March 3rd, then 2020 is the year with the 12th earliest max (or 14th, taking into account that 2020 is a leap year and it had 1 more day).

Source: [ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on March 10, 2020, 06:59:31 AM
Thank you for these tables and for your dependable updates Juan.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2020, 04:20:53 PM
The early bird (Juan) catches the data. JAXA has gone into maintenance, methinks, as it now sends you to a tweet.

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,296,768 km2(March 9, 2020)

- Extent GAIN on this day 15 k, 36 k more than the average LOSS  on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent gain in this freezing season to date is 10,333 k, 656 k (6.8%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,698 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 526 k more than 2017
- Extent is 146 k more than 2019
- Extent is 218 k (1.5%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- 1 day on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
Also look at the plume - including last year about to start its major sea ice extent losses.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.69 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.1 to -2.7 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold in the Bering Sea and north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi, into the Beaufort Sea on Saturday. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2020, 07:31:06 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 9 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,321,392 km2

For a second day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas.
A sea (ice) change starts?

                                 
Total Area         
 13,321,392    km2      
 424,531    km2   >   2010's average.
 466,559    km2   >   2019
-88,632    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -28    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -8    k   loss
 Central Seas__     12    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -33    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -11    k   loss
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -11    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 28 k, 32 k less than the 2010's average gain of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 425 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 467 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by a 89 k

- 2020 area 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.1 to -2.7 celsius over the next 5 days.  Especially cold for the next three days  in the Bering Sea and for longer north from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land in Northern Europe and Western +Central Siberia.

By Friday a burst of warmth into the Bering/Chukchi, into the Beaufort Sea on Saturday. Add possible storms and a really mixed picture emerges.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 10, 2020, 09:36:44 PM
And a look at NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice Area according to JAXA format pstings. .

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA as at March 9, 2020 (5 day trailing average) : 13,321,392 km2

- AREA gain in this freezing season to date is 10,412 k, 542 k (5.5%) MORE than the average last 10 years gain to date of 9,870 k.
- AREA is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- AREA is 664 k more than 2017
- AREA is 467 k more than 2019
- AREA is 422 k (3.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

- 5 days on average to maximum.

We are still in the period when on average daily AREA gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Not much indication that the maximum has been reached.
Also look at the plume .

Average remaining AREA gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 13.50 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2016 (of 12.63 million km2) by 0.87 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 11, 2020, 04:35:30 AM
Thank you for these tables and for your dependable updates Juan.
You are welcome, Oren!  :)
The true is that I really appreciate this Forum and other people posts (like yours...  ;) ). So, I am glad to make a contribution to this Forum.

Thanks, Neven, for your leadership and work on the Blog and the Forum.

_____________________________

Unlucky, today ADS is sending me to Twitter. It seems that there will be not data today. I will wait an hour, to see if the problem is fixed.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: mabarnes on March 11, 2020, 02:27:47 PM
Still down ... and nobody's thought "Maybe I should TWEET the Extent figure" ... argh.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 11, 2020, 07:15:51 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 10 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,305,781 km2

For a third day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas, but not by so much..
A sea (ice) change starts (or does not)?

                                 
Total Area         
 13,305,781    km2      
 406,508    km2   >   2010's average.
 420,620    km2   >   2019
-97,724    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -16    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -9    k   loss
 Central Seas__     8    k   gain
 Other Seas___    -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     13    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -13    k   loss
 Greenland____     7    k   gain
 Barents ______    -17    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___    5    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -15    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 16 k, 18 k less than the 2010's average gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 407 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 421 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 98 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -2.1 to +0.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western +Central Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 11, 2020, 09:36:46 PM
I took the monthly extent value for February 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average February extent is now 15.12 M km². February 2020 had an average extent of 14.69 M km², which is 0.43 M km² less than that average.
The higher than average extent gains in this month pushed the actual value well above the red long term linear trend line by 0.72 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this February should have been at 13.96 M km²).
The slope of the linear trend line has thus decreased by five digits (-0.0553 instead of -0.0558).

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 11, 2020, 10:19:11 PM
Google translate:

The Arctic Data Archive System (ADS) has been unable to access the website since March 11, 2020 (Wednesday) due to a server problem.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1237540342892613632 (https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1237540342892613632)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 12, 2020, 02:52:32 PM
VISHOP is back up.
Thank you for the post.  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 10th, 2020:
     14,292,368 km2, a drop of -4,400 km2.

March 11th, 2020:
     14,286,701 km2, a drop of -5,667 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 03:14:55 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  14,286,701 km2(March 11, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 6 k, 35 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 505 k more than 2017
- Extent is  35 k more than 2019
- Extent is 177 k (1.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 1 day ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 4 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 11 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
Also look at the plume.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.9 to +0.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 03:23:37 PM
A look at the February Monthly Average

The (experimental) graph attached shows the deviation from the linear trend in Feb 2020 was the 2nd highest in in the satellite record.

Shows the extent of the recovery in sea ice extent that already seems to be diminishing.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: nanning on March 12, 2020, 04:03:08 PM
I think it's a good graph gerontocrat.

edit: you could try to remove the lower half of the left axis and the top half of the axis on the right hand side. For clarity.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 12, 2020, 06:31:45 PM
Arctic vortex has been compact but way smaller than in 2002, one of the first years I followed the ice...
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 06:59:02 PM
I think it's a good graph gerontocrat.

edit: you could try to remove the lower half of the left axis and the top half of the axis on the right hand side. For clarity.

Given the package I am using (LibreOffice), that is as good as it gets if it's all on one graph.
Nothing like having to look twice to see things more clearly. (That's my excuse)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 07:08:18 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,290,607 km2

For a fourth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red especially in the peripheral seas, but is it enough to say the sea (ice) change has started ?
                                 
Total Area         
 13,290,607    km2      
 385,596    km2   >   2010's average.
 353,815    km2   >   2019
-98,203    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -15    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -1    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas___    -11    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     12    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___    11    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -14    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 15 k, 21 k less than the 2010's average gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 354 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 98 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.9 to +0.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi  and Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 13, 2020, 04:43:12 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 12th, 2020:
     14,266,701 km2, a drop of -20,000 km2.
     2020 is now 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2020, 11:55:18 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,266,701 km2(March 12, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 20 k, 44 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 419 k more than 2017
- Extent is  4 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is 133 k (0.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 2 days ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 3 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 10 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.

Must be switching to the minimum projections very sson.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.0 to +1.0 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
_____________________________-
ps: Also attached is an extract (from 2014) of the 365 day averages showing how it has risen due to 2020 extent being greater than 2019 over much of the winter. Now extent is 4k less than 2019. Will the 2010 melt be more or less than 2019's progress to 2nd lowest? No doubt the melting season thread (when Neven opens it) will be discussing that.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 13, 2020, 06:33:40 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,255,614  km2

For a fifth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 5 days since the current maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
Is it enough to say the sea (ice) change has started ?

                                 
Total Area         
 13,255,614    km2      
 337,841    km2   >   2010's average.
 263,492    km2   >   2019
-118,390    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -35    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     4    k   gain
 Central Seas__    -12    k   loss
 Other Seas___    -27    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -6    k   loss
 Greenland____     9    k   gain
 Barents ______    -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -28    k   loss
St Lawrence___    7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 35 k, 49 k less than the 2010's average gain of 14 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 338 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 263 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 118 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -1.0 to +1.0 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering/Chukchi  and the Beaufort Seas, perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean looking a very windy place at the moment.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 14, 2020, 05:05:29 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 13th, 2020:
     14,279,066 km2, an increase of  12,365 km2.
     2020 is 9th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,279,066 km2(March 13, 2020)

- Extent GAIN on this day 12 k, 11 k more than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 1 k,
- Extent is 9th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 463 k more than 2017
- Extent is  54 k more than 2019
- Extent is 144 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 3 days ago..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 3 days time.

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Projections for 11 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.45 million km2).
The Plume shows how steeply extent must fall to match 2019.

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.45 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2.

Must be switching to the minimum projections very soon.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing / Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.3 to +1.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Continuous pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.
_____________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 05:23:42 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,188,935  km2

For a sixth day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 6 days since the current maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
With a 67 k sea ice area loss on this day  surely it is enough to say the sea (ice) change has started

                                 
Total Area         
 13,188,935    km2      
 248,538    km2   >   2010's average.
 146,474    km2   >   2019
-168,865    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -67    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -19    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -33    k   loss
 Other Seas___    -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -21    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -4    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______    -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -24    k   loss
St Lawrence___    11    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 67 k, 90 k less than the 2010's average gain of 23 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 249 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 146 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 169 k

- 2020 area still 12th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 2nd day..
- both the Bering and the Chukchi lost sea ice area.
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of -0.3 to +1.3 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Continuous pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean looking a very windy place at the moment - that must have had an effect.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 14, 2020, 07:31:12 PM
gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot!  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 14, 2020, 11:59:11 PM
Here is the NSIDC sea ice extent data analysed according to my JAXA postings....

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT (5 day trailing averager):  14,838,185 km2(March 13, 2020)

- Extent GAIN on this day 7 k, 8 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15 k,
- Extent is 13th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 620 k more than 2017
- Extent is 212 k more than 2019
- Extent is 336 k (2.3%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Just to confuse things....
- Average date of maximum based on average dates in last 10 years) 2 days ago (11th March)..
- Average date of maximum based on average daily extent change in last 10 years) is in 5 days time (18th March)
- In 3 of the last 12 years remaining extent gains would produce a new maximum


We are still in the period when daily extent gains and losses are highly variable.

Projections.

Projections for 9 of the last 12 years say the maximum has been reached (14.88 million km2).

Average remaining extent gain in the last 10 years from this date of about zero produces a maximum of 14.94 million km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2018 by 0.70 million km2.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2020, 12:25:26 AM
gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot!  :)
Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on March 15, 2020, 02:50:35 AM
gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot!  :)
Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

The total area for Hudson is missing
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 15, 2020, 04:58:12 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 14th, 2020:
     14,281,147 km2, a small increase of 2,081 km2.
     2020 is now 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2020, 11:24:50 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,281,147 km2(March 14, 2020)

- Extent GAIN on this day 2 k, 2 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 4 k,
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 446 k more than 2017
- Extent is  96 k more than 2019
- Extent is 142 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

We are still in the period when on average daily extent gains (and losses) are low but highly variable.
But in all of the last 12 years there is not enough remaining gain to produce a new maximum.
So the table has essentially closed itself down, and from tomorrow I post the projections of the minimum.

So the maximum for 2019-20 was  14,447,641 km2, above the lowest in the satellite record in March 2017 by 0.57 million km2, and 10th lowest in the satellite record.
See last table attached
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.1 to +1.8 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2020, 03:59:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,114,908  km2

For a seventh day the tables showing quite a lot of data in red , i.e. area loss on all of the 6 days since the maximum on the 7th March of 13,362,269 km2.
With a 74 k sea ice area loss on this day and 67k on the previous day the melt season is surely upon us

                                 
Total Area         
 13,114,908    km2      
 153,730    km2   >   2010's average.
 23,944    km2   >   2019
-228,815    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -74    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -15    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -43    k   loss
 Other Seas___    -16    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -26    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     2    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Chukchi______   -12    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -20    k   loss
St Lawrence___    4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, 95 k less than the 2010's average gain of 21 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 154 k.
- 2020 Area is MORE than 2019 by 24 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 228 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 2nd day..
- both the Bering and the Chukchi lost sea ice are.
- the Kara, Laptev & ESS all lost sea ice,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth
________________________________________________________________________
Freezing Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.1 to +1.8 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Pulses of warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the Pacific half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

The Arctic Ocean a very windy place at the moment - looking likely to reinforce the losses and gains in the various seas as mentioned above for at least the next 4-5 days. It would be nice if the melting thread was looking at short and medium term outlooks for winds and warmth as well as aerosols.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 15, 2020, 04:28:33 PM
gerontocrat,
could you please unhide the area values of Hudson Bay? Thanks a lot!  :)
Sorry Stephan, but I am not understanding..

what data to unhide re Hudson Bay?.

The total area for Hudson is missing
Hullo Stephan,

What I can post is limited by time, 4 images per posting, and I keep to the 700 pixel width limit so all the data is visible.

All the data for the NSIDC postings comes from downloads at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/
To find the files scroll down until you come to ...
View more detailed documentation

1.  All daily (single day and five-day trailing average) extent values in one file, updated daily (Sea_Ice_Index_Daily_Extent_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
2. Monthly sea ice average extent and area, and rankings
3. (Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_with_Statistics_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
Sea ice extent and area organized by year (Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
4. Minimum and maximum extent values and dates for each month and year, with rankings (Sea_Ice_Index_Min_Max_Rankings_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
5. Sea ice extent rates of change (Sea_Ice_Index_Rates_of_Change_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
6. Daily sea ice extent, by region (Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Daily_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
7. Monthly sea ice extent, by region (Sea_Ice_Index_Regional_Monthly_Data_G02135_v3.0.xlsx)
8. Daily sea ice extent 1981-2010 climatology (N_seaice_extent_climatology_1981-2010_v3.0.csv and S_seaice_extent_climatology_1981-2010_v3.0.csv)

I use files 1. & 6., mostly 6. as it has daily data for both area and extent for each sea. Usually updated daily at around 1.45 pm GMT.

Just click on the url and a download happens.

But just for you, here are..
- the extent and area graphs from the beginning of the freezing season to date.
  Shows why I use area graphs - the extent graph shows Hudson Bay still 100% full up.

Qu. But why Hudson Bay ? - it's been a bit ordinary.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 16, 2020, 05:15:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 15th, 2020:
     14,285,316 km2, a small increase of 4,169 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to see 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2020, 12:19:40 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,285,316 km2(March 15, 2020)

- Extent GAIN on this day 4 k, 14 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 14 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 162 k, 76 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 86 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 467 k more than 2017
- Extent is 137 k more than 2019
- Extent is 127 k (0.9%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

From this day the projections are of the minimum..

Average melt from today would produce a minimum of 4.42 million km2, 1.24 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook?

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.3 to +1.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will be a major impact.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2020, 07:40:53 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 13,114,908  km2

A sea of red except for the Barents & Greenland Seas (and a < 1 k gain in the Kara Sea)
                                 
Total Area         
 13,040,385    km2      
 47,058    km2   >   2010's average.
-82,910    km2   <   2019
-293,576    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -74    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -8    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -35    k   loss
 Other Seas___    -32    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -30    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
 Greenland____     5    k   gain
 Barents ______     10    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
         
Kara_________    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -9    k   loss
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -26    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, 84 k less than the 2010's average gain of 10 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 47 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 83 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 294 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 3rd day..
- both the Bering, the Chukchi ad the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS all lost sea ice,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies in the range of +0.3 to +1.7 celsius.
Especially cold from NE Greenland to the West Siberian shore.
But high +ve anomalies over land on Western Siberia.

Warmth spreading into the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift likely to be a major impact.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 16, 2020, 10:02:08 PM
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on March 17, 2020, 02:24:58 AM
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 17, 2020, 05:09:34 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 16th, 2020:
     14,270,983 km2, a drop of -14,333 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: coelho on March 17, 2020, 11:49:18 AM
Wondering if we'll see short term effects (Ice decrease this summer and Ice increase next winter) as a consequence of the collapsing economies due to Corona.

<edit Neven: This is the wrong thread for such a discussion.>
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 17, 2020, 12:29:06 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,270,983 km2(March 16, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 14 k, 14 k less than the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 0 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 177 k, 91 k (106%) more than the 10 year average of 86 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 565 k more than 2017
- Extent is 178 k more than 2019
- Extent is 113 k (0.8%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

From this day the projections are of the minimum..

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.41 million km2, 1.23 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +2.5 celsius.
Especially cold extending from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally postive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will be a major impact.
_____________________
ps: I am no longer posting the table (JAXA-Arc3) of the comparison of extent now with previous years' as Juan's table is more comprehensive, e.g. highlighting the 4 record years of 2007, 2012, 2016 & 2019.

But here is a table of recent and future daily changes for those record years and 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 17, 2020, 12:42:00 PM
In the first excerpt, you mean the resulting 2020 minimum, I guess?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 17, 2020, 02:35:46 PM
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.
Good question.

It's all down to the capability of the NSIDC satellite, which sends data from 625 km2 squares of the Arctic. The NSIDC algorthm then says if the signal says a square is more than 15% ice, that square goes into the extent figure as 100%. The area data for any square above 15% ice is updated according to the percentage estimated from the signal, (which is prone to greater error.) Newer satellites with higher resolution produce a lower difference between the two measures.

During the melting season (see first graph) the difference between Extent and Area increases from about 1.25 to 2.5 million km2 . This is because the ice pack becomes very fragmented. When freezing gets underway the pack becomes much more solid and the difference declines. 

We are in the period when this difference starts to grow. The second graph takes a closer look a March. It suggests on average a hiccup up this week, then a drop before the difference grows when the melting season gets into full swing. However, individual years can e very different.

From the two tables attached you can see that the NSIDC data for the EXTENT of the central arctic seas is still at 100% with no melt, while the AREA table shows melt has started for many of these seas.

ps: 2020 saw a recovery in sea ice extent - meaning a lot of thin and fragile ice. The stormy weather may be responsible for breaking up and fragmenting much of this ice, which shows in the area abut not the extent data
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 17, 2020, 03:15:34 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,988,601  km2

A sea of red except for the Barents & Greenland  and Kara Seas.
This loss in the Central Seas does not show in the extent data at all - i.e. all Central Seas extent at 100% full. A good illustration of why I use AREA data for these tables - it picks up change earlier even though area data is more prone to data errors.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,988,601    km2      
 9,148    km2   >   2010's average.
-124,796    km2   <   2019
-342,064    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -52    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -10    k   loss
 Central Seas__    -17    k   loss
 Other Seas___            -25    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -35    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     4    k   gain
 Greenland____     12    k   gain
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -4    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -16    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss

Sea ice area loss on this day 52 k, 56 k less than the 2010's average gain of 4 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 9 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 125 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 342 k

- 2020 area 10th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- the very large loss of sea ice area in the Okhotsk Sea for the 4th day..
- both the Bering, the Chukchi ad the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS & Beaufort lost sea ice again,
- while the Barents & Greenland seas gained area again.

Strong winds perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies increasing from +0.3 to +2.5 celsius.
Especially cold extending from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean perhaps briefly above zero as far as and beyond the Bering Strait.

Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift will still be a major impact.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 18, 2020, 05:11:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 17th, 2020:
     14,275,509 km2, an increase of 4,526 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2020, 11:15:18 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,275,509 km2(March 17, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 5 k, 29 k different from the average LOSS on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent LOSS from maximum on this date is 172 k, 63 k (57%) more than the 10 year average of 110 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 668 k more than 2017
- Extent is 258 k more than 2019
- Extent is 141 k (1.0%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.43 million km2, 1.25 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.5 to +2.9 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally postive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait
_____________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2020, 11:21:09 AM
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.
Thought I would find out what CAPIE is, and lo & behold, below is an extract from a post by Neven from August 2012 - https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/new-capie-record.html

Quote
CAPIE stands for Cryosphere-today Area Per IJIS Extent, and it tells us something about the compactness (official scientific term) of the ice. It all revolves around the different definitions for sea ice area and sea ice extent, which are two ways of calculating the total ice cover. The NSIDC explains it well:

Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method.

A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated.

Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles).

Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles).

If we divide area by extent, we get an idea about how spread out the ice pack is or not (which is determined by wind patterns). When the ice pack is compact, for instance during winter, all the 'holes in the cheese' freeze over, and so the area and extent numbers come very close, and CAPIE oscillates around the 95% mark.

At the start of the melting season melt ponds fool satellite sensors into thinking that there is open water where there is none (which get calculated for area, but not for extent). This makes CAPIE go down. As the melting season progresses, melt ponds become less and less of an influence because they drain, or the ice floes they are on break up.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 18, 2020, 03:24:50 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,967,354  km2

On this day the rate of ice area loss much less, and the average daily change switches to losses.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,967,354    km2      
-2,120    km2   <   2010's average.
-113,783    km2   <   2019
-366,291    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -21    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -17    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -9    k   loss
 Other Seas____     5    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -28    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     5    k   gain
 Greenland____    -0    k   loss
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    5    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 21 k, 11k more than the 2010's average loss of 10 k.

- 2020 Area less than the 2010's average by 2 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 114 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 366 k

- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.

Note
- both the Bering, the Chukchi and the Beaufort Seas lost sea ice area again.
- the Laptev & ESS & Beaufort lost sea ice again,
- while the Barents Sea but not the Greenland sea gained area again.

Strong winds continue to be perhaps more important than warmth.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.5 to +2.9 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on March 18, 2020, 10:56:43 PM
The last days saw a slight increase in extent, and massive losses in area. Will these curves follow different directions or is a convergence ahead?
Convergence, once CAPIE drops sufficiently.
Thought I would find out what CAPIE is, and lo & behold, below is an extract from a post by Neven from August 2012 - https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/new-capie-record.html

Quote
CAPIE stands for Cryosphere-today Area Per IJIS Extent, and it tells us something about the compactness (official scientific term) of the ice. It all revolves around the different definitions for sea ice area and sea ice extent,...
<snippage>

Sorry, I should have made the reference clearer.

That said, my point was, that as that ratio drops, it will indicate the ice reaching a threshold of concentration where extent drops will start catching up with area, as concentration drops below the 10% or 30% threshold used to define what constitutes "extent", which itself varies by information provider.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 19, 2020, 04:50:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 18th, 2020:
     14,209,562 km2, a drop of -65,947 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 19, 2020, 11:32:39 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,209,562 km2(March 18, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 66 k, 51 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 15 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 238 k, 113 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 125 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 653 k more than 2017
- Extent is 204 k more than 2019
- Extent is 91 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.38 million km2, 1.20 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.8 to +3.0 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Barents after 3-4 days.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean - drift should be a major impact, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, wind pushing into the Ocean via the Bering Strait.
_____________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 19, 2020, 03:58:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,964,670   km2

On this day the rate of ice area loss reduced to almost nothing, suggesting a new pattern of wind and warmth in the Arctic
                                 
Total Area         
 12,964,670    km2      
 14,735    km2   >   2010's average.
-69,973    km2   <   2019
-373,226    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -12    k   loss
 Central Seas___     7    k   gain
 Other Seas____     2    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -15    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 3 k, 17k less than the 2010's average loss of 20 k.

- 2020 Area less than the 2010's average by 15 k.
- 2020 Area is LESS than 2019 by 70 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 373 k

- 2020 area 8th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +1.8 to +3.0 celsius.
The cold anomalies extend from NE Greenland to West Siberia and later into Central Siberia.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Barents after 3-4 days.

Extreme warmth in the Bering, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas, and later into the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 3-4 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 20, 2020, 04:50:55 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 19th, 2020:
     14,178,358 km2, a drop of -31,204 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2020, 11:45:32 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,178,358 km2(March 19, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 31 k, 10 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 269 k, 123 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 146 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 618 k more than 2017
- Extent is 181 k more than 2019
- Extent is 81 k (0.6%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.37 million km2, 1.19 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  +2.1 to +3.2 celsius.
Generally positive anomalies in Eastern Siberia, & signs of warmth in the Atlantic Front after 1-2 days.

Extreme warmth in the North American half of the Arctic Ocean diminish after 2-3 days.
Still windy in the Arctic Ocean for 2 more days then quieter - drift should be a major impact for these 2 days, ice export into the Barents and Greenland Seas, on the Pacific side wind pushing into the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait.
_____________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 20, 2020, 03:21:42 PM
as at 14:20 GMT no data update from NSIDC  / Colorado.

Maintenance or lockdown?

I'll try again later.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2020, 12:26:58 AM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 March 2020 (5 day trailing average)

The data arrived, I forgot to check, it's late, so graph & tables only.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 21, 2020, 05:28:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 20th, 2020:
     14,135,924 km2, a drop of -42,434 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years (in order to include 2012).
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2020, 11:01:50 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,135,924 km2(March 20, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 42 k, 26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 16 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 312 k, 150 k (92%) more than the 10 year average of 162 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 577 k more than 2017
- Extent is 119 k more than 2019
- Extent is   54 k (0.4%) MORE than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.35 million km2, 1.17 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.5 to +1.4 celsius.

A new pattern emerges by day with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2020, 04:15:16 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,961,360   km2

After a 4 k rise the day before, on this day a 7k drop, maybe suggesting a new pattern of wind and warmth in the Arctic is being established
                                 
Total Area         
 12,961,360    km2      
 49,871    km2   >   2010's average.
 27,874    km2   >   2019
-362,798    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -7    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___     11    k   gain
 Other Seas____     13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -20    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -13    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    7    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    10    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 7 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average loss of 18 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 50 k.
- 2020 Area is more than 2019 by 28 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 363 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.5 to +1.4 celsius.

A new pattern emerges by day 4 with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and on the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara Seas, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean. Baffin Bay also getting warmer.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 21, 2020, 04:22:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 March 2020

The Bering Sea sea ice area after a spectacular rise showing what could turn out to be a spectacular fall.

The Chukchi Sea  sea ice area showing a fall but not yet significant.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: echoughton on March 21, 2020, 04:53:00 PM
The Bering looks like the Dow... :o :o :o :o
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 21, 2020, 10:34:26 PM
The Bering looks like the Dow... :o :o :o :o
;D  ;D  ::)   :(   :-[   :'(

[It seemed funny when I first read it]
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gandul on March 22, 2020, 12:08:08 AM
The Bering looks like the Dow... :o :o :o :o
;D  ;D  ::)   :(   :-[   :'(

[It seemed funny when I first read it]
I tell you for once both curves March-December may look similar. The Bering may recover first afterwards.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 22, 2020, 04:43:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 21st, 2020:
     14,064,688 km2, a drop of -71,236 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 22, 2020, 07:38:19 AM
Thanks to you, Juan, for keeping us up-to-date day by day.
I checked the JAXA website and found that yesterday was the first day since Jan 13, where the daily value was below 2010s average.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2020, 10:50:27 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,064,688 km2(March 21, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 71 k, 58 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 383 k, 208 k (119%) more than the 10 year average of 175 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 524 k more than 2017
- Extent is     8 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is     4 k (0.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.29 million km2, 1.11 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2020, 06:26:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,923,685   km2

                                 
Total Area         
 12,923,685    km2      
 28,324    km2   >   2010's average.
 25,897    km2   >   2019
-389,282    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -38    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -25    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -14    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -18    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______     1    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 38 k, 22 k more than the 2010's average loss of 16 k.

- 2020 Area more than the 2010's average by 28 k.
- 2020 Area is more than 2019 by 26 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 389 k

- 2020 area 11th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +1.8 celsius.

A new pattern emerges  with strong+ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 5 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 23, 2020, 04:41:47 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 22nd, 2020:
     14,006,955 km2, a drop of -57,733 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2020, 11:17:03 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 14,006,955 km2(March 22, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 38 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 441 k, 246 k (126%) more than the 10 year average of 195 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 126 k more than 2007
- Extent is 574 k less   than 2012
- Extent is  81 k more than 2016
- Extent is    6 k LESS than 2019
- Extent is   42 k (0.3%) LESS than the 2010's average.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.25 million km2, 1.07 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2020, 10:42:18 PM
Better late than never ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 22 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,866,179 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,866,179    km2      
-22,528    km2   <   2010's average.
-10,717    km2   <   2019
-426,893    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -57    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -17    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -42    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -17    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________    6    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -16    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 57 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area more less than the 2010's average by 23 k.
- 2020 Area is more less than 2019 by 11 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 427 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies  decrease from +3.0 to +0.3 celsius.

Strong +ve temp anomalies on the Pacific Side in Eastern Siberia, Bering/Chukchi and Western Alaska, and in the Atlantic Front in the Barents/Kara, and cool in the central Arctic Ocean.

For at least the next 4 days strong winds from the Atlantic with above freezing temperatures head up the Norwegian Sea as far as Novaya Zemla. (Nullschool well worth a look). (maybe / perhaps after that the southerly winds closer to the Greenland coast & Svalbard, with Arctic winds exporting the cold to the UK).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 24, 2020, 04:47:31 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 23rd, 2020:
     13,944,190 km2, a drop of -62,765 km2.
     2020 is 10th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2020, 09:02:37 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,944,190 km2(March 23, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 63 k, 32 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 503 k, 278 k (123%) more than the 10 year average of 226 k.
- Extent is 10th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  68 k more than 2007
- Extent is 626 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   44 k more than 2016
- Extent is   33 k more than 2019
- Extent is   74 k (0.5%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 175 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.22 million km2, 1.04 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 24, 2020, 03:33:59 PM
Better earlier than late ?

NSIDC Total Area as at 23 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,802,385 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,802,385    km2      
-80,214    km2   <   2010's average.
-44,076    km2   <   2019
-468,934    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -64    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -20    k   loss
 Central Seas___     2    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -45    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -17    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -7    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______    -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -0    k   loss
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -31    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -13    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 64 k, 50 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

Most of the sea ice area losses in the Bering, Okhotsk and St. Lawrence Seas


- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 80 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 44 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 469 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th[/s] 8th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 24, 2020, 06:05:06 PM
So it is Okhotsk, Bering, St Lawrence and (to a smaller extent) Baffin that delivered the largest part of area losses in the last days. St Lawrence can go on in this pace only for a few further days because it doesn't have too much ice left. CAB Seas, Barents and Grønland Sea seem quite stable at the moment.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tammukka on March 24, 2020, 06:45:19 PM
According nsidc daily Sea extent has dropped from maximum record amount 684 000km^2. I mean its record that at date 23.3 or ealier extent has dropped such amount. Thin ice breaks/melts faster.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 25, 2020, 05:18:54 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24th, 2020:
     13,824,816 km2, the 1st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km2.
     2020 changed from 10th to 4th lowest on record.  :o
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 25, 2020, 05:54:42 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24th, 2020:
     Graph with today's 10 lowest years.
     Highlighted 3 years with September lowest min (2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Lewis on March 25, 2020, 06:15:28 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 24th, 2020:
     13,824,816 km2, the 1st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km2.
     2020 changed from 10th to 4th lowest on record.  :o
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)


I have a feeling we will be hitting new records this year, dropping 6 slots in a day wow.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pauldry600 on March 25, 2020, 10:13:25 AM
I'm not surprised. The ice that has formed is relatively weak in many areas
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 02:06:47 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2(March 24, 2020)

- On this day sea ice extent is at last below the record low maximum of 13.88 million km2 on 6th March 2017. Note also that the 2017 minimum was nothing special at 4.47 million km2. (Compare this with max & min 2012)
- Moving from 10th to 4th lowest is a result of not just the very high daily loss on this day, but also shows that at and around maximum the values for many years are tightly clustered in a narrow range.
- An extent loss of 119k is a rarity at this time of year, only 5 instances of a greater daily extent loss in the whole of march in all the years from 2002 to the present. 


- Extent loss on this day 119 k, 97 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 623 k, 375 k (151%) more than the 10 year average of 248 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  24 k less than 2007
- Extent is 687 k less   than 2012
- Extent is   37 k less than 2016
- Extent is   15 k less than 2019
- Extent is  171 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 174 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

It is from now that 2019 started its impressive sea ice losses. Will 2020 continue to follow?
Note how at this time 2012 extent was still very very high.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.9 & +0.8 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: If 2020 overall extent losses continue to exceed those of 2019 just a chance of the 365 day trailing average having another go at below the record minimum set on 1st? April 2017.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 04:02:02 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,731,597  km2

This day's large area loss entirely in the peripheral seas apart from a small area loss in the Kara Sea.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,731,597    km2      
-145,071    km2   <   2010's average.
-63,577    km2   <   2019
-525,041    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -71    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -34    k   loss
 Central Seas___     7    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -44    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -15    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______    -12    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -34    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 71 k, 65 k more than the 2010's average loss of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 145 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 64 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 525 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th[/s] 7th lowest in the satellite record.


________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +3.1 & +0.5 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction. See the new wavy jetstream thread
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 04:06:29 PM
And just a reminder about why I use NSIDC Area data, not extent.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 25, 2020, 08:55:19 PM
And just a reminder about why I use NSIDC Area data, not extent.
...which means to me that every single grid cell in all of the seas is covered by at least 15% of ice.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 10:40:21 PM
NSIDC Sea Ice Area - 3 seas leading the downward charge (for the moment?)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 26, 2020, 04:50:42 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25th, 2020:
     13,682,550 km2, the 2nd century drop of the melting season: -142,266 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Wherestheice on March 26, 2020, 05:14:28 AM
Wow things have really accelerated here recently. Considering the winter maximum was so much higher than recent years, this must mean that it was only very weak ice, and now we are seeing the correction to truly reflect the state of the ice?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 26, 2020, 05:28:58 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 25th, 2020:
     13,682,550 km2, the 2nd century drop of the melting season: -142,266 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
2018 and 2006 had an increase of extent on March 26th, so tomorrow 2020 only needs to have a drop of -19,002 km2 to become the 3rd lowest on record and a drop of -40,116 km2 to become the 2nd lowest on record.

In fact, the 3 years (2006, 2017 & 2018) had some extent increases on the following days. So, if 2020 has an accumulated drop of -110,515 km2 on the next 4 days or -106,951 km2 on the next 5 days, 2020 will become the lowest on record.

Afterwards (from March 30st), 2020 will need to compete with 2019, year that will take the lead of being the lowest on record.

[ Sorry for making so many corrections. Hope that it is fine now.  ;) ]
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2020, 08:30:39 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,824,816 km2(March 24, 2020)


- An extent loss of 119k followed by an extent loss of 142k is a 2 day total sea ice loss 261k, which might well be a record for the month of March .
Note that 2019 has the record for the one day March loss daily extent loss, 166k on the 30 March


- Extent loss on this day 142 k, 144 k more than the average -ve loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of -2 k (i.e. a gain of 2k),
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 765 k, 519 k (210%) more than the 10 year average of 246 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 220 k less than 2007
- Extent is 869 k less than 2012
- Extent is 141 k less than 2016
- Extent is   74 k less than 2019
- Extent is  315 k (1.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.
____________________________________
ps: Some people wanted the daily change graph (Arc2) to show 2019 as well as 2012 (te record low minmum year). I have not added 2019 to the graph - but the last image is a copy of graph Arc2 with the 2019 daily change instead of 2012.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on March 26, 2020, 08:51:31 AM
Insolation levels are still very, very low and the ocean is losing heat which means there is less energy later in water as more heat is being lost when sea ice area is smallish. Later in spring this is opposite.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2020, 06:05:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,665,657 km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea.

For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,665,657    km2      
-207,821    km2   <   2010's average.
-47,440    km2   <   2019
-575,772    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -66    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___     9    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -44    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -10    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -4    k   loss
 Barents ______    -16    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -30    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -12    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 66 k, 69 k more than the 2010's average loss of 3 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 208 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 47 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 576 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th[/s] 6th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.3 & +0.9 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________
Hudson Bay Area column is resurrected from where it was hiding. Not the faintest idea of when or how I did that
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: kassy on March 26, 2020, 07:11:04 PM
For the 26th (tomorrow's posting) and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

Now lets see what this year does.
It was an interesting freeze season and this looks like a promising melt season...

Thanks for all the work!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 26, 2020, 07:43:54 PM
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2020, 08:07:04 PM
First analysis of the sea ice extent - relative area wise - of this melting season. Last 11 days Mar 15- Mar 25, 2020.
As gerontocrat correctly wrote, it all depended on three seas:
St Lawrence   - 69%
Bering           - 36%
Okhotsk         - 16%
Small and negligible losses (-1 to -4%) in Baffin, Beaufort and Chukchi Seas
Small and negligible gains (+1 to +4%) in Kara, Laptev, Barents and Grønland Seas
The rest was more or less constant.
The graphs show the same.

Look also at the Big Beast - the 3.22 million km2 of the Central Arctic Sea. Still totally inviolate and concentration (Area divided by Extent) at almost at 100% of absolute maximum.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 26, 2020, 11:40:54 PM
NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5 day trailing average:   12,665,657  km2(March 25, 2020)

Analysis as in JAXA postings


- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 697 k, 360k (107%) more than the 10 year average of 337 k.
- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  15 k less than 2007
- Extent is 713 k less than 2012
- Extent is   80 k more than 2016
- Extent is   47 k less than 2019
- Extent is  208 k (1.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 173 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table NSDC-Area1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 2.82 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum sea ice area of 2.25 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 27, 2020, 04:42:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 26th, 2020:
     13,632,064 km2, a drop of -50,486 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 27, 2020, 12:25:31 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,632,064 km2(March 26, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 44 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 6 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 816 k, 563 k (223%) more than the 10 year average of 252 k.
- Extent is 10th 4th 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 303 k less than 2007
- Extent is 815 k less than 2012
- Extent is 172 k less than 2016
- Extent is   97 k less than 2019
- Extent is  359 k (2.6%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done., and 172 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (Next 5 days only)

Not a clue & no time to find out.
____________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year's minimum was nearly 200k more than the 10 year average.
2012 Extent on this day is + 800k more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 27, 2020, 11:13:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,615,868  km2

This day's large area loss is again largely confined to  the peripheral seas apart from a another medium-sized area loss in the Kara Sea, and the first loss for some time in the Chukchi.

For this day and a further two days, the 10 year average daily change is a smallish gain. An oddity, but shows the last feeble grasp of winter.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,615,868    km2      
-263,268    km2   <   2010's average.
-14,814    km2   <   2019
-610,997    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -50    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -40    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -9    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -10    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______    -15    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -6    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 50 k, 56 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 6 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 263 k.
- 2020 Area  less than 2019 by 15 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 611 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th[/s] 5th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Melting Outlook (next 5 days only)

GFS says overall Arctic temperature anomalies vary between +2.1 & +1.3 celsius.

Winds variable in strength and direction, & probably still the major factor in the amount of sea ice loss and where it is happening?
________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wdmn on March 28, 2020, 06:50:45 AM
In lieu of Juan:

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 27th, 2020:
     13,579,397 km2, a drop of -52,667 km2.
     2020 is the 2nd lowest on record (behind 2017: 13,542,425 km2).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on March 28, 2020, 09:43:55 AM
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent:
The top ten list of March 27th (all values in M km²)
2017   13.54
2020   13.58
2006   13.62
2018   13.70
2019   13.73
2016   13.80
2005   13.83
2015   13.84
2007   13.91
2011   13.96
(2010s ave 13.99)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2020, 10:47:08 AM
Juan - r u OK ?

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,579,397 km2(March 27, 2020)

Extent on this day is less than all years except 2017 which is 37k less. However, on the 28th March he daily change in 2017 was a gain of 29 k. An extent loss of of 6k or more on the 28th will make 2020, however briefly, lowest in the satellite record.

- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 56 k different from  the average GAIN on this day (of the last 10 years) of 3 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 868 k, 619 k (248%) more than the 10 year average of 249 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 332 k less than 2007
- Extent is 959 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 156 k less than 2019
- Extent is 415 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 171 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
ps: One Swallow does not make a Summer.

The only year with lower extent on this day is 2017. But that year is likely to be history from the 28th March
2012 Extent on this day is + 41 k shy of 1 million km2  more than 2020. Who would have thought then that 2012 would be the year of the record low minimum ?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2020, 05:31:15 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,590,318 km2

Sea ice area loss declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice losses seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,590,318    km2      
-296,053    km2   <   2010's average.
 31,061    km2   >   2019
-620,723    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -30    k   loss
 Central Seas___     4    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -13    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -0    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    2    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 33 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 296 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 31 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 621 k

- 2020 area 11th 9th 8th 7th 6th 5th 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 29, 2020, 05:50:12 AM
Juan - r u OK ?
I'm fine. Thank you for asking! And thanks, wdmn and Stephan for the posts!
Sorry that I missed my post yesterday.

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 28th, 2020:
     13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
     2020 is now the lowest on record.   :P
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 29, 2020, 12:35:48 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,559,443 km2(March 28, 2020)

Extent on this day is #1. The probability is only for one day more due to 113k and 166k losses in 2019 in the next 2 days. After that - ? -

- Extent loss on this day 20k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 22 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 888 k, 617 k (228%) more than the 10 year average of 271 k.
- Extent is lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 298 k less than 2007
- Extent is 963 k less than 2012
- Extent is 221 k less than 2016
- Extent is 142 k less than 2019
- Extent is 414 k (3.0%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 2.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 170 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 29, 2020, 08:03:50 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,582,200 km2

Sea ice area loss continues declining day by day - but waves of large then small ice daily changes seem to be the norm
                                 
Total Area         
 12,582,200 km2      
-306,647    km2   <   2010's average.
 83,352    km2   >   2019
-612,793    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -22    k   loss
 Central Seas___     8    k   gain
 Other Seas____     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -5    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -2    k   loss
 Greenland____    -7    k   loss
 Barents ______    -9    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    4    k   gain
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, 10 k more less than the 2010's average loss gain of 2 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 307 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 83 k
- 2020 Area is LESS than the 2000's average by 613 k

- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Rodius on March 30, 2020, 01:25:12 AM
Is it my imagination or has nsidc extent numbers not been delivered for two days running?

(Yes, I know it is the methadone of data, but I like it like that)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Alphabet Hotel on March 30, 2020, 05:36:12 AM
Is it my imagination or has nsidc extent numbers not been delivered for two days running?

(Yes, I know it is the methadone of data, but I like it like that)

They've been uploading files daily but there's no new data in them.

This is the last few rows from the .CSV file uploaded this morning [ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/N_seaice_extent_daily_v3.0.csv]

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 30, 2020, 05:48:55 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 29th, 2020:
     13,628,026 km2, an increase of 68,583 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 30, 2020, 11:59:55 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,628,026 km2(March 29, 2020)

Only made one day as #1

- Extent loss gain on this day 69k, 101 k less more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 32 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 820 k, 517 k (171%) more than the 10 year average of 302 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 150 k less than 2007
- Extent is 908 k less than 2012
- Extent is  69 k less than 2016
- Extent is  39 k MORE than 2019
- Extent is 313 k (2.2%) LESS than the 2010's average.

On average 3.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 169 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 30, 2020, 07:39:58 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,579,677 km2

Sea ice area loss almost stalled
                                 
Total Area         
 12,579,677    km2      
-308,174    km2   <   2010's average.
 133,875    km2   >   2019
-601,134    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -4    k   loss
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____     1    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     2    k   gain
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______    6    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 3 k, 2 k more than the 2010's average loss of 1 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 308 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 134 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 601 k
- 2020 area 4th lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
ps: Missing updates of NH daily extent

Missing for the third day.
Sent e-mail yesterday to NSIDC also mentioning that all else seems to be updated OK.
NSIDC have sent an answer
Thank you for contacting the NSIDC and for letting us know about this issue. We are currently looking into it to try and resolve it.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on March 31, 2020, 05:49:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 30th, 2020:
     13,621,422 km2, a small drop of -6,604 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 31, 2020, 12:58:34 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,621,422 km2(March 30, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 7k, 24k ess than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 31 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 826 k, 493 k (148%) more than the 10 year average of 333 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  198 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 168 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on March 31, 2020, 07:57:54 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,495,253 km2

2 days ago  I sent an e-mail to NSIDC about missing NH-Extent data. They now tell me that it is fixed. They did not tell me that the fix goes back to the 26th March and substantially changes AREA data for all the seas from that date.

So my posting for those days are based on duff data. Oh well, there has to be a first time for everything, even a SNAFU in which I am not the culprit.

                                 
Total Area         
 12,495,253    km2      
-385,800    km2   <   2010's average.
 104,887    km2   >   2019
-674,428    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -25    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     13    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -12    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -26    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     3    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -6    k   loss
 Greenland____     8    k   gain
 Barents ______     7    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -9    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    5    k   gain
Laptev_______    2    k   gain
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -27    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -0    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 25 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 7 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 105 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 674 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 01, 2020, 05:54:50 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

March 31st, 2020:
     13,599,874 km2, a drop of -21,548 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 01, 2020, 09:42:06 AM
Semimonthly BOE evaluation.

The max was reached on March 3rd. Extent was 14,447,631 km2. As of March 31st, extent is 13,599,874 km2. With on average 166 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -75,903 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

We had a 10 day stretch in early March with many small gains and small losses, the result was extent dropped by only -14,622 km2 during that period. Thus greatly hampering the massive impact on averages that our two century drops had.

Total extent loss so far this season is -847,767 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -30,277 km2. This is the 3rd highest average daily loss from maximum to March 31st (2007-2020), behind 2014 (Minimum on March 20th) and 2019 (Minimum on March 12). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. 2019 lost ~50,000 km2 more in 9 fewer days. Wow. (See Attachment 3).

Keep in mind that there are a wide range of minimums since 2007, ranging from Feb 24th to March 31st.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on April 01, 2020, 09:59:02 AM
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from April 1 to their respective minimums (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From April 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 6th highest value. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, and that 2016's minimum was reached on September 7th. (See attachment 2). End
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2020, 10:55:20 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,599,874 km2(March 31, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 22k, 11k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 11 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 848 k, 504 k (146%) more than the 10 year average of 344 k.
- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  225 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 167 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2020, 11:14:31 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,599,874 km2(March 31, 2020 - Some other stuff

March Monthly Averages - (March and September graphs attached)

March 2020 average shows the 4th highest deviation above the the linear trend in the satellite record.

The March average is only 95k above the February average, compared with a 235k average increase in the the last 10 years. The recovery in Arctic sea ice, if it was a recovery, was halted and reversed in March.

Comparing the deviations in March and September suggests no meaningful correlation between the March maximum and the following September minimum?

Will 2020 play catch-up with 2019?

After exhaustive research and deep thought, I ain't gotta clue.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2020, 04:48:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 31 March 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,480,575 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,480,575    km2      
-385,389    km2   <   2010's average.
 141,774    km2   >   2019
-676,030    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -15    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     9    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -6    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     17    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
         
Kara_________    11    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -9    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
Sea ice area loss on this day 15 k, 0 k more than the 2010's average loss of 15 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 142 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 676 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Loads more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next few days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 02, 2020, 06:16:08 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 1st, 2020:
     13,583,490 km2, a drop of -16,384 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2020, 01:07:18 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,583,490 km2(April 1, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 16 k, 5k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 21 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 864 k, 499 k (137%) more than the 10 year average of 365 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  275 k MORE than 2019

On average 3.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 166 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2020, 03:40:54 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 1 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,462,278 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,462,278    km2      
-381,959    km2   <   2010's average.
 179,752    km2   >   2019
-683,445    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -18    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     8    k   gain
 Central Seas___    -3    k   loss
 Other Seas____    -23    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -1    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -12    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     22    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
         
Kara_________    12    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Chukchi______   -10    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 18 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 22 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 382 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 180 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 683 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Yet more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next few days & then quietening down.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 03, 2020, 05:50:11 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 2nd, 2020:
     13,557,918 km2, a drop of -25,572 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 03, 2020, 10:39:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,557,918 km2(April 2, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 26 k, 2 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 890 k, 496 k (126%) more than the 10 year average of 393 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  323 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 165 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 03, 2020, 05:01:42 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 2 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,448,274 km2
                                 
Total Area         
 12,448,274    km2      
-375,898    km2   <   2010's average.
 219,507    km2   >   2019
-686,878    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -14    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas     1    k   gain
 Central Seas___     1    k   gain
 Other Seas____    -17    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -8    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     19    k   gain
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
         
Kara_________    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    4    k   gain
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 14 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 20 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 376 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 220 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 687 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 3 days or so & then quietening down.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 04, 2020, 06:02:05 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 3rd, 2020:
     13,525,457 km2, a drop of -32,461 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2020, 10:47:46 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,525,457 km2(April 3, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 32 k, 7 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 39 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 922 k, 489 k (113%) more than the 10 year average of 433 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  326 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 164 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 04, 2020, 04:42:49 PM
NSIDC Total nArea as at 3 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,427,857 km2

I've moved all the peripheral seas into one section. I think it makes more sense.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,427,857    km2      
-376,926    km2   <   2010's average.
 247,247    km2   >   2019
-693,049    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -20    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -16    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -4    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
 Bering _______    -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     17    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 20 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 19 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 377 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 247 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 693 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 2 days or so & then quietening down (and starting up again by the 8th April?).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 04, 2020, 06:09:24 PM
I've moved all the peripheral seas into one section. I think it makes more sense.

I also think it makes more sense. I even would have used the same order (from Okhotsk to Barents)
Thank you anyway for your daily reports on extent and area and for the clear graphs
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 05, 2020, 10:38:15 AM
Arctic Sea Ice Extent top twelve list as of April 4 (all values in M km²). Arrows indicate the change of ranking since March 27.
2019  13.13 ↑
2018  13.39 ↑
2016  13.42 ↑
2020  13.46 ↓
2015  13.50 ↑
2017  13.55 ↓
2006  13.58 ↓
(2010s ave 13.77)
2005  13.80 ↓
2007  13.65 →
2011  13.80 →
2014  13.85 →
1996  14.05 ↑
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2020, 12:19:36 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,459,304 km2(April 4, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 66 k, 20 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 40 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 988 k, 510 k (107%) more than the 10 year average of 478 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  327 k MORE than 2019

On average 4.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 163 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.99 million km2, 0.81 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 05, 2020, 02:08:06 PM
Welcome back ASIF!  :)

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 4rd, 2020:
     13,459,304 km2, a drop of -66,153 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2020, 04:37:38 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 3 April 2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,397,190 km2

With the space created by moving all the peripheral seas into one table, I am able to add the overall NSIDC extent data into the first table attached.
                                 
Total Area         
 12,397,190    km2      
-385,777    km2   <   2010's average.
 238,880    km2   >   2019
-707,269    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -31    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -27    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -4    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
 Bering _______    -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -16    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____    -5    k   loss
 Barents ______     13    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    8    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
Sea ice area loss on this day 31 k, 9 k more than the 2010's average loss of 22 k.

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 386 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 239 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 707 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Yet even more ice sent into the Barents. Looks like strong winds sending more into the Barents and / or the Greenland sea in the next 2 days or so & then quietening down (and starting up again by the 8th April?)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2020, 05:16:05 PM
NSIDC SEA ICE AREA - SOME GRAPHS

Spring is gradually pushing its way into the Arctic. One by one the Arctic Seas are waking up from their stormy and restless winter hibernation....

Pacific Gateway.

The Bering Sea ice falling to well below average area,
The Chukchi seems in a maybe mode,
The Beaufort has woken up,
as has the ESS.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 05, 2020, 05:27:41 PM
NSIDC SEA ICE AREA - SOME GRAPHS

Spring is gradually pushing its way into the Arctic. One by one the Arctic Seas are waking up from their stormy and restless winter hibernation....

Pacific Gateway.

......and the Okhotsk sea ice goes down towards oblivion.

Atlantic Front
It looks like export from the Central Arctic Sea into the Greenland & Barents Seas continues apace.

Baffin Bay The impressively slow freeze is now being matched by significant sea ice loss along the entire length of the Canadian East seaboard and across to the West coast of Greenland.

A signal for Greenland Ice Sheet melt this year?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 06, 2020, 05:50:06 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 5th, 2020:
     13,388,020 km2, a drop of -71,284 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 06, 2020, 09:50:08 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 13,388,020 km2(April 5, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 71 k, 30 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,060 k, 540 k (104%) more than the 10 year average of 519 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  327 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 162 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.96 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 06, 2020, 01:36:39 PM
I took the monthly extent value for March 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) March extent is now 15.27 M km². March 2020 had an average extent of 14.78 M km², which is 0.49 M km² less than that long-term average.
The higher than average extent gains in February and the more or less parallel to normal development in March kept the actual value well above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.70 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this March should have been at 14.08 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by two digits (-0.0551 instead of -0.0553).

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 06, 2020, 06:16:25 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-Apr-2020(  (5 day trailing average) 12,354,423 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,354,423    km2      
-403,930    km2   <   2010's average.
 226,736    km2   >   2019
-734,561    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -43    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -40    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -3    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -18    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
 Greenland____    -1    k   loss
 Barents ______     6    k   gain
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -2    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    6    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -5    k   loss
Kara_________   -4    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 43 k, 18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 25 k.         

- 2020 Area  less than the 2010's average by 404 k.
- 2020 Area  MORE than 2019 by 227 k
- 2020 Area is less than the 2000's average by 735 k
- 2020 area 3rd lowest in the satellite record.
________________________________________________________________________
Ang again even more ice sent into the Barents.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 07, 2020, 05:44:50 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 6th, 2020:
     13,342,605 km2, a drop of -45,415 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 07, 2020, 07:54:59 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,342,605 km2(April 6, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 45 k, 9 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 36 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,05 k, 550 k (99%) more than the 10 year average of 555 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  330 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 161 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 07, 2020, 04:03:12 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,322,453 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,322,453    km2      
-411,051    km2   <   2010's average.
 244,288    km2   >   2019
-746,601    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -32    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -31    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -0    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
 Bering _______    -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -10    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -19    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -0    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______     4    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    8    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 32 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average loss of -25 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -411 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -747 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 244 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 07, 2020, 05:45:23 PM
Baffin Bay continues to lose an impressive amount of sea ice area.

Volume also declines in March.
Sea Ice thickness appears to increase in March,

i.e. the thin stuff is going first.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 07, 2020, 08:45:40 PM
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: anaphylaxia on April 07, 2020, 09:35:17 PM
I think it has to do with the persistant Nares outflow, prime 5m thick ice is coming from North of Greenland
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: be cause on April 08, 2020, 12:38:32 AM
only Nares has been closed for months ... b.c.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on April 08, 2020, 02:07:39 AM
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
In principle: Very thin ice gone away, so only normal ice remains. But in reality, I think there is some persistent problem with Baffin Bay volume numbers.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 08, 2020, 05:47:10 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 7th, 2020:
     13,371,025 km2, an increase of 28,420 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

P.S. I am surprised to see 1989 on the list. It is going to be there several days this month.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2020, 09:27:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,371,025 km2(April 7, 2020)

- Extent gain on this day 28 k, 57 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,077 k, 492 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 584 k.
- Extent is 4th lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  398 k MORE than 2019

On average 5.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 160 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.00 million km2, 0.82 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2020, 04:36:46 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 07-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,305,666 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,305,666    km2      
-403,340    km2   <   2010's average.
 268,341    km2   >   2019
-735,213    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -17    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -22    k   loss
 Central Seas___     6    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
 Bering _______     0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____    -22    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     1    k   gain
 Barents ______     9    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    7    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 17 k, -7 k less than the 2010's average loss of -24 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -403 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -735 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 268 k more than 2019          
_________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2020, 04:46:56 PM
NSIDC Area Graphs.

Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.

Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 09, 2020, 05:50:14 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 8th, 2020:
     13,300,719 km2, a drop of -70,306 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 09, 2020, 09:22:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,300,719 km2(April 8, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 70 k, 46 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,147 k, 538 k (88%) more than the 10 year average of 609 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  311 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 160 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.96 million km2, 0.78 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 09, 2020, 04:00:11 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 08-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,288,996 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,288,996    km2      
-398,106    km2   <   2010's average.
 263,656    km2   >   2019
-718,488    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -17    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -29    k   loss
 Central Seas___     12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
 Bering _______     4    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -17    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -3    k   loss
 Greenland____    -3    k   loss
 Barents ______    -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 17 k, -5 k less than the 2010's average loss of -22 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -398 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -718 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 264 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 10, 2020, 05:44:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 9th, 2020:
     13,248,209 km2, a drop of -52,510 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 10, 2020, 09:45:21 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,248,209 km2(April 9, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 53 k, 27 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 26 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,199 k, 565 k (89%) more than the 10 year average of 635 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  242 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 158 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average melt from today would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 10, 2020, 03:16:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,281,465 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,281,465    km2      
-384,464    km2   <   2010's average.
 259,720    km2   >   2019
-689,789    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -18    k   loss
 Central Seas___     10    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
 Bering _______     7    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
 Baffin  Bay____    -9    k   loss
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     0    k   gain
 Barents ______    -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, -13 k less than the 2010's average loss of -21 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -384 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -690 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 260 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 11, 2020, 05:49:26 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 10th, 2020:
     13,198,416 km2, a drop of -49,793 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2020, 06:50:26 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,198,416 km2(April 10, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 50 k, 31 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 19 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,249 k, 595 k (91%) more than the 10 year average of 654 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  184 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 157 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.90 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Once again the average remaining melt is distorted by the melt in 2012 from a high maximum to a record low minimum. This can be seen by average remaining melt in the last 5 years being 300k less than the 10 year average, which would end with a minimum of 4.20 million km2.

Of note is the extent loss to date is only surpassed (just) by last year (2019) at least since 2007.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 11, 2020, 01:05:11 PM
From NSIDC Data - The 7 Peripheral & 7 High Arctic Seas - Sea Ice AREA

The separation of the Arctic Seas into these two groups is starting to look interesting (I hope).

I attach two sets of graphs -

The first two look at the March monthly averages and deviations from trend from 1979 to 2020.

In the Peripheral seas there is a linear trend of just over 30 k  km2 area loss per year.
In the High Arctic seas there is a linear trend of 94 km2 (yes, a tiny 94 km2)area gain per year.

The next two graphs look at area from March to October from 1979 to 2020.

The peripheral Seas have lost a lot of ice at maximum and very little at minimum.
The High Arctic is opposite - ice area at maximum is unchanged, while ice area at minimum is greatly reduced..

If the High Arctic follows the curve shown in the peripheral graph, the High Arctic losses at minimum would continue on a broadly linear trend until most summer ice is gone, and then may well do an extended Gompertz tail.

As time goes by while in Purdah perhaps other stuff will emerge.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 11, 2020, 04:20:33 PM
It's posts like this, Gerontocrat, that warrant all the "Likes"!  Very interesting indeed!

It's almost intuitive (or "It's intuitive, once you look at the graphs!"):  the margins 'always' (mostly) melt out and are freezing less and less as the Earth's surface warms; the core still always freezes up and used to only thaw a little around the edges, but now melts more, as the Earth's surface warms.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 12, 2020, 05:57:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 11th, 2020:
     13,153,514 km2, a drop of -44,902 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

PS: 2016 (2nd lowest) had an increase of 50K km2 on April 12th, so 2020 is already 15K km2 lower than that. If there is a drop or an increase of less than 15K km2, 2020 will become 2nd lowest tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2020, 08:17:04 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,153,514 km2(April 11, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 45 k, 17 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 28 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,294 k, 612 k (90%) more than the 10 year average of 682 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  164 k MORE than 2019

On average 6.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 156 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Once again the average remaining melt is distorted by the melt in 2012 from a high maximum to a record low minimum. This can be seen by average remaining melt in the last 5 years being 300k less than the 10 year average, which would end with a minimum of 4.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 12, 2020, 12:33:51 PM
JAXA Data here are some graphs with the cobwebs dusted off.

Extent Plume of forward projections from last 10 years daily change...
I have extended this to 1st October, expecting the plume to widen like a trumpet- it hasn't, except for 2012.
If anyone needs any more evidence that 2012 was a bit unusual, this is it.

365 Day Average will continue to increase as long as 2020 extent is greater than 2019
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 13, 2020, 05:41:24 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12th, 2020:
     13,106,131 km2, a drop of -47,383 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on April 13, 2020, 09:20:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 12th, 2020:
     13,106,131 km2, a drop of -47,383 km2.
     2020 is now 2nd lowest on record.
Sometime in the next week to 10 days or so, I think 2016,2019 & 2020 are going to start a spiral dance around one another, trading positions 1,2 & 3 back and forth possibly well into late spring.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2020, 12:58:42 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,106,131 km2(April 12, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 47 k, 18 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 29 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,342 k, 630 k (89%) more than the 10 year average of 711 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  161 k MORE than 2019

On average 7.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 155 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.87 million km2, 0.69 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2020, 03:36:33 PM
NSIDC returns from Easter break?

NSIDC Total Area as at 12-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,236,061 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,236,061    km2      
-355,470    km2   <   2010's average.
 180,382    km2   >   2019
-610,552    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -20    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -19    k   loss
 Central Seas___    -1    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -11    k   loss
 Bering _______    -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     8    k   gain
St Lawrence__   -1    k   loss
 Greenland____     4    k   gain
 Barents ______    -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 20 k, -8 k less than the 2010's average loss of -28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -355 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -611 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 180 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 14, 2020, 05:41:07 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 13th, 2020:
     13,096,906 km2, a drop of -9,225 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 14, 2020, 08:21:36 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:   13,096,906 km2(April 13, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 9 k, 14 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 23 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,351 k, 616 k (84%) more than the 10 year average of 734 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  164 k MORE than 2019

On average 7.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 154 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 14, 2020, 03:40:39 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,228,544 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,228,544    km2      
-330,708    km2   <   2010's average.
 176,719    km2   >   2019
-577,897    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
 Peripheral Seas    -11    k   loss
 Central Seas___     4    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -12    k   loss
 Bering _______    -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -5    k   loss
 Baffin  Bay____     1    k   gain
St Lawrence__    1    k   gain
 Greenland____     6    k   gain
 Barents ______     5    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    5    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -0    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -3    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, -24 k less than the 2010's average loss of -32 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -331 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -578 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 177 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 15, 2020, 02:56:29 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1250035644119658498 (https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1250035644119658498)
April 14th, 2020:
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 15, 2020, 04:00:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 14-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,226,174 KM2)

Looks like area loss has stalled - another change in warmth + winds underway?         
         
Total Area         
 12,226,174    km2      
-304,802    km2   <   2010's average.
 189,547    km2   >   2019
-540,999    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -16    k   loss
Central Seas___    14    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______    10    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________    2    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 2 k, 26 k less than the 2010's average loss of 28 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -305 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -541 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 190 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 16, 2020, 06:03:16 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 14th, 2020:
     13,091,552 km2, a drop of -5,354 km2.

April 15th, 2020:
     13,060,075 km2, a drop of -31,477 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 23 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

P.S. Today's difference [2012] - [2019] =  1,228,988 km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2020, 12:06:34 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,060,075 km2(April 15, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 31 k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,388 k, 579 k (72%) more than the 10 year average of 809 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  239 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 152 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.74 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2020, 03:21:09 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,212,009 KM2)         
         
Total Area         
 12,212,009    km2      
-290,158    km2   <   2010's average.
 192,290    km2   >   2019
-514,580    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -14    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___    20    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -14    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Kara_________    3    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 14 k, 15 k less than the 2010's average loss of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -290 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -515 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 192 k more than 2019          

Interesting contrast between the peripheral and the central seas over the last 2 weeks, the periphery losing ice area, the centre gaining ice area.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 16, 2020, 04:03:49 PM
Sea Ice Area in the Barents & Greenland Seas at or above the 2000's average. When will that warmth advertised in he melting thread materialise?

Sea Ice Area in the Okhotsk and the Bering Seas low and getting lower.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 17, 2020, 05:55:28 AM
April 16th, 2020:
     13,001,987 km2, a drop of -58,088 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

P.S. Today's difference [2012] - [2019] = 1,270,392 km2.
      And more that 1M km2 (2012 versus 2020). What a fall 2012 had!!!  ::)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Phoenix on April 17, 2020, 07:04:57 AM
Random thank you to Gerontocrat and Juan for the community service here. Your updates are a very important pillar of the community.

The last 5 years being the lowest 5 in terms of extent at this point in the calendar truly reflect the chronic progression of AGW.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2020, 11:06:15 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,001,987 km2(April 16, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 58 k, 23 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,446 k, 602 k (71%) more than the 10 year average of 844 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  206 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 151 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.89 million km2, 0.71 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 17, 2020, 10:16:44 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 16-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,185,787 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,185,787    km2      
-284,657    km2   <   2010's average.
 197,071    km2   >   2019
-502,405    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -40    k   loss
Central Seas___    13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -5    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    10    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 32 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -285 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -502 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 197 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 18, 2020, 05:51:55 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 17th, 2020:
     12,924,654 km2, a drop of -77,333 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years (in order to include 2012).  ;)
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2020, 07:04:57 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,924,654 km2(April 17, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 77 k, 34 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,523 k, 627 k (72%) more than the 10 year average of 886 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  168 k MORE than 2019

On average 8.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 150 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.86 million km2, 0.68 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,137,146 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,137,146    km2      
-304,077    km2   <   2010's average.
 191,679    km2   >   2019
-518,096    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -49    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -0    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______   -15    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    9    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 49 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 29 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -304 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -518 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 192 k more than 2019          

It looks like a new pattern of winds and warmth is causing a new wave of area lss- mostly in the peripheral seas - but for how long?

The contrast between sea ice area loss in the periphery and in the central seas is probably nearing the peak. I hope to demonstrate this later.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 18, 2020, 03:40:49 PM
Thank you again for these daily reports...come here every day to read them.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 18, 2020, 06:31:52 PM
Evaluation of arctic sea ice area - relative area wise from Apr 01 to Apr 176, 2020
A clear differentiation of the Central Arctic Seas & Hudson vs. the other peripheral seas

small gains in Chukchi (+5,5 %)
negligible gains in ESS and Beaufort (+2,3 %; +1,2 %)
almost no change in CAA, CAB and Kara (+0,1 % ... -0,5 %)
negligible loss in Laptev (-1,2 %)
small loss in Hudson (-4,4 %)
_____________

small gain in Barents (+ 4,6 %, not from freezing over but due to continuous import from CAB)
small losses in Grønland and St. Lawrence (-5,5 %; -5,8 %, the latter mostly ice-free)
losses in Baffin and Bering (-15,4 %; -19,4 %)
huge losses in Okhotsk (-32,6 %)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2020, 06:55:59 PM
First of 3 (I hope) NSIDC Area analyses

NSIDC TOTAL SEA ICE AREA - Analysed per JAXA postings  - Area @ 17 April  12,137,146 km2

- Area loss to date 1.225k km2, 456k km2 (59%) less than the 10 year average of 769k km2,
- Area 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- on average 8.2% of melting from maximum one, with 150 days to minimum,
- 10 year average remaining melt gives a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 above the 2012 record low of 2.25 million km2.

The next two analyses - High Arctic,and Periphery, should show very different stories lying behind the overall total
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 18, 2020, 11:34:31 PM
Second of 3 (I hope) NSIDC Area analyses

NSIDC HIGH ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA - Analysed per JAXA postings  - Area @ 17 April   8,608,546  km2

The main differences with the Total Arctic Area comes from that melt in these 7 Central Seas has barely started.

- Area loss to date 141k km2, 79k km2 (90%)less than the 10 year average of 71k km2,
- Area 11th lowest in the satellite record,
- on average 1.4% of melting from maximum one, with 150 days to minimum,
- 10 year average remaining melt gives a minimum of 2.90 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 record low of 2.07 million km2.

You may also notice that the projected minimum is greater than that for the Total Arctic Area. This is because the same methodology produces an impossible negative sea ice area minimum for the peripheral seas. The methodology for the projections has its limitations which are broken.

The next analysis - the Peripheral Seas, should show yet another very different story lying behind the overall total.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2020, 12:00:58 AM
Third of 3 NSIDC Area analyses

NSIDC PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA - Analysed per JAXA postings  - Area @ 17 April  3,528,600 km2

- Area loss to date 1,222k km2, 592k km2 (94%)less than the 10 year average of 630k km2,
- Area 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- on average 17% of melting from maximum one, with 150 days to minimum,
- 10 year average remaining melt gives a minimum of 0.00 million km2, 0.08 million km2 above the 2018 record low of 0.08 million km2.

In 10 out of the 13 previous years, the melt from now until minimum would produce a negative ice area minimum. In no previous year has this ever occurred - there is always a few bits of ice remaining somewhere. (In the first table attached this is forced to zero.)

This also shows that the methodology I use for the Total Arctic Area projection tends to exaggerate the amount of possible melt, in this case for this day by an amount approaching 200k.


Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 19, 2020, 06:05:19 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 18th, 2020:
     12,896,988 km2, a drop of -27,666 km2.
     2020 is 2nd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2020, 09:37:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,896,988 km2(April 18, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 28 k, 15 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,551 k, 621 k (72%) more than the 10 year average of 929 k.
- Extent is 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  204 k MORE than 2019

On average 9.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 149 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.88 million km2, 0.70 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2020, 03:37:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 18-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 12,070,375 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 12,070,375    km2      
-335,964    km2   <   2010's average.
 169,625    km2   >   2019
-546,841    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -67    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -50    k   loss
Central Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -3    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -3    k   loss
Greenland____   -16    k   loss
Barents ______   -22    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______    0    k   gain
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 67 k, -32 k more than the 2010's average loss of 35 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -336 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -547 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 170 k more than 2019

My comment yesterday...       
Quote
The contrast between sea ice area loss in the periphery and in the central seas is probably nearing the peak.

...just might be true.

Even seeing the first real nibble at the sea ice North of 80 - holes in the ice along the Northern Shores of Svalbard & FJL.[/i]

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: be cause on April 19, 2020, 04:47:24 PM
the next week's weather may show Kara is not really at home in the Central Sea's collection .. at least not this year . b.c.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 19, 2020, 06:03:46 PM
the next week's weather may show Kara is not really at home in the Central Sea's collection .. at least not this year . b.c.
One year is not enough?

Compare Barents Sea Atlantification with the reduction in Kara Sea Ice over the years and different periods of the year. (see attached).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 20, 2020, 05:51:57 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2020:
     12,888,786 km2, a drop of -8,202 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2020, 10:45:11 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,888,786 km2(April 19, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 8 k, 26 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,559 k, 596 k (62%) more than the 10 year average of 963 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  204 k MORE than 2019

On average 9.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 148 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.90 million km2, 0.72 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 20, 2020, 02:35:10 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2020:
     12,888,786 km2, a drop of -8,202 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     
The last five years are the top 5 and six out of seven last years (except 2015) are in the top 7 list.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2020, 05:09:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 19-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,992,223 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,992,223    km2      
-371,640    km2   <   2010's average.
 138,722    km2   >   2019
-589,412    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -78    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -43    k   loss
Central Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -9    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    11    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -16    k   loss
Barents ______   -22    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    2    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -24    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 78 k, -36 k more than the 2010's average loss of 42 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -372 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -589 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 139 k more than 2019          

NSIDC Extent as measured in the Central Seas still at maximum - concentration reduces as area reduces. Cracks and holes multiply.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2020, 05:36:59 PM
the next week's weather may show Kara is not really at home in the Central Sea's collection .. at least not this year . b.c.
At and around maximum (before & after) the Kara Sea Ice is in a permanent state of the wobbles.
Sea Ice loss this week would have to be very much in excess of the average to be of real significance as sustained melt is due to kick in by the beginning of May.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 20, 2020, 05:48:33 PM
Anywhere there is a list of the lowest September minima? I would think that the 2012 minimum would be a good level for a Do Not Exceed point, similar to Paris 2˚C, since it may have exacerbated Hurricane Sandy. I am curious how close a "normal" year is getting toward that.
Table attached (NSIDC Extent (5 day trailing average)). Not that sticking up a sign "Do Not Exceed" is going to be a lot of use.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 20, 2020, 06:13:32 PM
So 80s were 7026k, 90s were 6518k, 00s were 5534k and 10s were 4509k.
So we are dropping about 1000k a decade, and the average for the 20s may be about 3500k.
Allowing for variation we may have a few Sandys this decade, and a lot next decade.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 20, 2020, 09:46:55 PM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 19th, 2020:
     12,888,786 km2, a drop of -8,202 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     
The last five years are the top 5 and six out of seven last years (except 2015) are in the top 7 list.

To not leave it to just one day, these are the averages from April 1st to April 19th, sorted from lowest to highest. The fact that 2016 and 2019 are two of the September's lowest, makes me think that there is certain relation in being on the group of lowest at the beginning of April and ending on the group of lowest on September. Of course, 2012 breaks this rule completly!

But you are right: "The last five years are the top 5 and six out of seven last years (except 2015 2014 [on these averages]) are in the top 7 list."
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 21, 2020, 05:58:15 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 20th, 2020:
     12,862,467 km2, a drop of -26,319 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 21, 2020, 09:49:28 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 12,862,467 km2(April 20, 2020)

- Extent loss on this day 26 k, 12 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 38 k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,585 k, 584 k (58%) more than the 10 year average of 1,001 k.
- Extent is 3rd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is  259 k MORE than 2019

On average 10.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 147 days to minimum.

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.91 million km2, 0.73 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 21, 2020, 03:08:53 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 20-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,934,918 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,934,918    km2      
-391,811    km2   <   2010's average.
 128,562    km2   >   2019
-615,653    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -57    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss
Central Seas___   -34    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    12    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -16    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -9    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________   -23    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 57 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 37 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -392 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -616 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 129 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 22, 2020, 06:01:19 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 21st, 2020:
     12,852,617 km2, a drop of -9,850 km2.
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2020, 07:59:41 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,852,617 KM2 as at 21-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 10k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,595 k, 573 k, 56.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,022 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  258 k MORE than 2019,

On average 10.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 146 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 22, 2020, 06:55:56 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 21-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,894,445 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,894,445    km2      
-399,415    km2   <   2010's average.
 124,100    km2   >   2019
-627,124    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -40    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -9    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    3    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    3    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -11    k   loss
Kara_________   -19    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 40 k, -7 k more than the 2010's average loss of 33 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -399 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -627 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 124 k more than 2019

Let the Trumpets sound! First day of recorded NSIDC extent loss for this melting season (in the Kara & Laptev Seas). The cracks & holes are getting bigger.   

But don't be surprised if a change in wind direction shuts the gaps again.
   
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 23, 2020, 05:48:19 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 22nd, 2020:
     12,828,562 km2, a drop of -24,055 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 23, 2020, 05:57:26 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,828,562 KM2 as at 22-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 34k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,619 k, 563 k, 53.3% more than the 10 year average of 1,056 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  242 k MORE than 2019,

On average 10.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 145 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 23, 2020, 05:40:31 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 22-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,873,847 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,873,847    km2      
-385,762    km2   <   2010's average.
 133,929    km2   >   2019
-618,820    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -21    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -2    k   loss
Central Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -2    k   loss
Bering _______    2    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    7    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    5    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss
Laptev_______   -10    k   loss
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 21 k, 13 k less than the 2010's average loss of 34 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -386 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -619 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 134 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 23, 2020, 09:52:09 PM
It appears to me that Kara and Laptev ar the first two Central Seas that start to lose ice area in a significant way in this melting season.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 24, 2020, 05:53:41 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 23nd, 2020:
     12,798,373 km2, a drop of -30,189 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2020, 11:17:11 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,798,373 KM2 as at 23-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 30k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,649 k, 550 k, 50.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,099 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  184 k MORE than 2019,

On average 11.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 144 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2020, 07:33:05 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 23-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,845,257 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,845,257    km2      
-379,765    km2   <   2010's average.
 138,167    km2   >   2019
-621,365    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -29    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -18    k   loss
Central Seas___   -10    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -13    k   loss
Bering _______    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -4    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    4    k   gain
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 29 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 35 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -380 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -621 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 138 k more than 2019          

The mayhem of the last 2 or 3 days on the Atlantic Front (Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev) seems to be subsiding somewhat.
A new winds and warmth (or cold?) weather pattern on its way?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 24, 2020, 07:40:12 PM
Quote
The mayhem of the last 2 or 3 days on the Atlantic Front (Greenland, Barents, Kara & Laptev) seems to be subsiding somewhat.

Area Graphs attached.
The sea ice losses in the Kara look the most impressive.
The Barents sea ice area is still really high.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 25, 2020, 06:01:35 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 24th, 2020:
     12,743,960 km2, a drop of -54,413 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2020, 07:26:45 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,743,960 KM2 as at 24-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 54k, -11 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 43k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,704 k, 562 k, 49.2% more than the 10 year average of 1,142 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  122 k MORE than 2019,

On average 11.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 143 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.76 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2020, 03:17:56 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 24-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,801,824 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,801,824    km2      
-386,033    km2   <   2010's average.
 130,648    km2   >   2019
-636,957    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -43    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -11    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss
Bering _______    1    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____    3    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -3    k   loss
Central Arctic_    1    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 43 k, -6 k more than the 2010's average loss of 37 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -386 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -637 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 131 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2020, 03:26:52 PM
Sea ice area loss in the Kara Sea continues. Beyond the point of a rebound?
Losses elsewhere on the Atlantic Front diminish again.

Okhotsk Sea resumes the race to zero.(Note how the July 1 mask adjustment finishes the job)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 25, 2020, 05:04:55 PM
NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 24-04-2020

April sea ice area continues to decline at or a bit above average, with melt from the maximum 53%, 0.54 million km2 above the average for the last 10 years

Area at minimum, projected on average remaining melt, would be 2.6 million km2, second lowest in the satellite record, and 0.40 million km2 above the record low in 2012.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 26, 2020, 05:56:57 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 25th, 2020:
     12,673,844 km2, a drop of -70,116 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on April 26, 2020, 07:22:08 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 25th, 2020:
     12,673,844 km2, a drop of -70,116 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
<snip>
Interesting to note, the 5 lowest years are.... the last 5 years, including 2020.

All are within about a 225,000km2 spread, and the 6th year - 2007 - is over 100,000km2 behind this pack.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 11:27:15 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,673,844 KM2 as at 25-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 70k, -8 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 62k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,774 k, 571 k, 47.4% more than the 10 year average of 1,203 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  47 k MORE than 2019,

On average 12.1% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 142 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 03:44:54 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 25-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,728,161 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,728,161    km2      
-413,089    km2   <   2010's average.
 85,819    km2   >   2019
-676,512    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -56    k   loss
Central Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -22    k   loss
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -8    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -11    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, -27 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -413 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -677 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 86 k more than 2019          
_____________________________________
A very high area loss. As this is the 5 day average, it is not a one-day glitch, and the next 2-3 days are very likely to show well above average sea ice area loss.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 04:04:39 PM
NSIDC Area vs Extent

Sea Ice Area loss is much higher than extent (especially at the beginning of the melt season).
Also most of the losses are in the peripheral seas - i.e. ice is disintegrating.

This is shown by graphing dispersion** i.e. extent divided by area. The higher the value, the less the structural integrity of the remaining ice.

Already the ice does not look in good shape
______________________________________
**I use ice dispersion rather than concentration (= area divided by extent) ...as  I find it works better graphically.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 06:39:17 PM
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 25th April


Sea ice losses have been high in these peripheral seas, 1.46 million km2, 0.60 more than the average of 0.86 million km2.

As a result, Peripheral Area has risen in the rankings from 11th lowest at maximum to 3rd lowest..

The projected minimum from the last 10 years average remaining melt from now is zero, from the last 5 years just 40k.

As far as overall state of the cryosphere is concerned, what probably matters more is earlier melt, later freeze and a lower winter maximum.
_____________________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 06:48:02 PM
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC Area

The March monthly average graph shows that the maximum sea ice area of the peripheral seas is declining at just over 30k per annum.

The September monthly average graph shows that the maximum sea ice area of the peripheral seas is declining at just under 3k per annum.

The last graph shows that in most years, average melt from now would produce a zero result.
i.e. the spreadsheet fails as sea ice tends to zero.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 27, 2020, 05:45:01 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 26th, 2020:
     12,613,076 km2, a drop of -60,768 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 27, 2020, 06:30:09 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,613,076 KM2 as at 26-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 61k, 0 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,835 k, 570 k, 45.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,264 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  5 k MORE than 2019,

On average 12.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 141 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.93 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 27, 2020, 04:21:17 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 26-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,660,135 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,660,135    km2      
-428,800    km2   <   2010's average.
 36,934    km2   >   2019
-704,987    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -53    k   loss
Central Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -20    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -1    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 68 k, -16 k more than the 2010's average loss of 52 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -429 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -705 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 37 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 28, 2020, 05:44:03 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 27th, 2020:
     12,589,294 km2, a drop of -23,782 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2020, 07:11:34 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,589,294 KM2 as at 27-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 23 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,858 k, 547 k, 41.7% more than the 10 year average of 1,312 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  26 k MORE than 2019,

On average 13.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 140 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 28, 2020, 04:09:57 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 27-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,545,487 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,545,487    km2      
-490,913    km2   <   2010's average.
-69,638    km2   <   2019
-774,162    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -98    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -67    k   loss
Central Seas___   -31    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -22    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -10    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_    0    k   gain
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -10    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 98 k, -45 k more than the 2010's average loss of 53 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -491 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -774 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -70 k less than 2019       

- An impressive loss,
- and a upward adjustment to area loss on the 26th,

-and Nico Sun (aka tealight) quotes an area (from NSIDC) of 13.36 million km2, some 180k less than the NSIDC 5 day trailing average in this posting. My guess is that this is the NSIDC one day data. If so, that guarantees the 5 day area loss will be very large during the next few days.

see https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on April 28, 2020, 07:21:06 PM
Okhotsk sea ice area is on a real slippery slide downwards. It now loses more than 10% of its area day by day.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 29, 2020, 05:54:51 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 28th, 2020:
     12,599,173 km2, an increase of 9,879 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 29, 2020, 06:14:34 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,599,173 KM2 as at 28-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 10k, 61 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,848 k, 486 k, 35.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,363 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  147 k MORE than 2019,

On average 13.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 139 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.01 million km2, 0.83 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

That was a surprise - a one-off, or the beginning of a sustained period of stalled extent loss?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: grixm on April 29, 2020, 08:28:45 AM
gerontocrat: The last few posts your second and fouth images have been identical
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: nanning on April 29, 2020, 08:54:50 AM
The difference I see is the comparison with respectively 2012 and 2019.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: grixm on April 29, 2020, 09:27:30 AM
Hm I see that now. But is that deliberate? The last image used to be a spreadsheet comparing daily values, like in this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg258560.html#msg258560
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 29, 2020, 11:12:01 AM
Hm I see that now. But is that deliberate? The last image used to be a spreadsheet comparing daily values, like in this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg258560.html#msg258560
Juan's postings now include the comparisons I used to post as table 3.
Not only that, he posts more years and orders them from lowest to highest extent.
His table is better and more informative than mine.
So my table is essentially redundant.

That gave me a spare slot. At the moment I use that slot so I can compare daily changes in 2020 with 2012 (the record low year), and with 2019 (which for a brief period looked like producing a new record low 365 day average). I tried putting both years on the same graph but it just makes a mess.

Maybe I will use that spare slot to post some of the other graphs gathering dust inside the machine.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: grixm on April 29, 2020, 11:33:27 AM
Ok, thanks for the clarification :)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 29, 2020, 04:02:04 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 28-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,468,764 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,468,764    km2      
-516,479    km2   <   2010's average.
-130,591    km2   <   2019
-804,157    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -77    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -49    k   loss
Central Seas___   -28    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -10    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -12    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______   -6    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__   -10    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -6    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 77 k, -26 k more than the 2010's average loss of 51 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -516 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -804 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -131 k less than 2019          

On this day a contrast with NSIDC one day and JAXA 2 day extent which show an uptick. The 5 day average smooths out many of these kinks and wobbles.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 30, 2020, 05:57:18 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,650,631 KM2 as at 29-Apr-2020

- Extent gain on this day 51k, 107 k different from the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 56k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,797 k, 378 k, 26.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,419 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  291 k MORE than 2019,

On average 14.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 138 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.12 million km2, 0.94 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
________________________________________________
Looks like a sea ice extent gain of more than 50 k is unique for late April.
In the last 2 days a gain of 61k compared with average 2 day 107k loss.
A big contrast to NSIDC recent large sea ice area losses.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on April 30, 2020, 05:58:21 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2020:
     12,650,631 km2, an increase of  51,458 km2.  :o  :o  :o
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)

P.S. My guess is that this increase is not good. We will have to check NSIDC area data (posted later by Gerontocrat). I think that the ASI is losing concentration, that at the end will generate more contact between the ice and the ocean water.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on April 30, 2020, 06:55:57 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 29th, 2020:
     12,650,631 km2, an increase of  51,458 km2.  :o  :o  :o
     2020 is now 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
 
P.S. My guess is that this increase is not good. We will have to check NSIDC area data (posted later by Gerontocrat). I think that the ASI is losing concentration, that at the end will generate more contact between the ice and the ocean water.
Yeah, CAPIE is going to go up sharply.  That's between 150-200K worth of dispersion.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 30, 2020, 08:11:25 AM
Yeah, CAPIE is going to go up sharply.

Yup. The hi res AMSR2 equivalent:

P.S. Don't forget to scroll right!
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on April 30, 2020, 03:20:45 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 29-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,406,379 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,406,379    km2      
-527,948    km2   <   2010's average.
-161,609    km2   <   2019
-820,860    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -39    k   loss
Central Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -15    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -7    k   loss
Laptev_______   -7    k   loss
Kara_________    4    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, -11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 51 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -528 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -821 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -162 k less than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: pleun on April 30, 2020, 03:42:47 PM
the compaction graph from cryospherecomputing.tk
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 01, 2020, 05:47:22 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

April 30th, 2020:
     12,627,020 km2, a drop of -23,611 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 25 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 01, 2020, 09:27:57 AM
Semimonthly BOE evaluation. -- Sorry for missing the mid-month update, personal issues. By the time I was ready to post I figured I should just wait until the end of April anyway.

As of April 30th, extent is 12,627,020 km2. With on average 136 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -85,493 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).
Additional fun fact! In the month of April we had zero days where losses outstripped their daily BOE requirement. We had 4 of those days in April 2019.

Total extent loss so far this season is -1,820,621 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily drop of -31,390 km2. Since the year 2007, this is the 6th highest average daily loss from maximum to April 30th (2007-2020). (See Attachment 2).

Although it is worth noting that the total extent loss from maximum is 2nd highest on record behind only 2019. (See Attachment 3).

Looking only at the month of April, 2020 lost -972,854 km2, nearly 100,000 km2 less than the 2007-2019 average. This is the 5th smallest loss since 2007. (See Attachment 4).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 01, 2020, 09:36:29 AM
And for comparisons to other years:

The following attachment is for actual previous years daily average melt from May 1st to their respective minimums. (Attachment 1).

The following section is for what the previous years would have needed for a BOE to occur: From May 1st to each years respective minimum, our current BOE requirement is the 7th highest value, of which 2018 is the leader. Keep in mind that 2018's minimum was reached on September 21st, 8 days after our expected end of the season. (See attachment 2).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 01, 2020, 10:23:37 AM
Ktb,
thank you for that update - really appreciated that.
Has there ever been a green "TRUE" in your column "Are we on track?" since you started your evaluation?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 10:54:08 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,627,020 KM2 as at 30-Apr-2020

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 25 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,821 k, 353 k, 24.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,468 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  322 k MORE than 2019,

On average 14.7% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 137 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
_______________________________________________________
The last graph attached contains the April Monthly averages and deviations from trend. Overall the month was a bit below trend, and 3rd lowest in the satellite record, behind 2019 (#1) and 2016 (#2).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 03:42:38 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 30-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,359,282 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,359,282    km2      
-522,064    km2   <   2010's average.
-150,318    km2   <   2019
-821,067    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -47    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -29    k   loss
Central Seas___   -18    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -9    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -8    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    2    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -0    k   loss
East Siberian__   -17    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 47 k, 6 k less than the 2010's average loss of 53 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -522 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -821 k less than the 2000's average                  
- 2020 Area is -150 k less than 2019          
_____________________________________________
Daily Sea Ice Area loss is in decline. Yet another change in the winds & warmth weather pattern underway?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 04:33:26 PM
It's end-of-the-month data time. We'll see how I get along.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30-04-2020

Sea Ice Area loss got into its stride from mid-April.
Area loss from maximum is 2.0 million km2, some 0.67 million km2, 51%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 0.67 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2nd lowest, just 64k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value of 2.51 million km2, some 0.38 million km2 above the 2012 record minimum of 2.25 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 04:43:59 PM
NSIDC Total Area Analysis (contd)

The April monthly average is below trend, in contrast with the  March monthly average, which was well above trend.

Athough this April average is above that of 2019, the daily value at 30th April is 150k less than 2019, reflecting the very strong area loss from mid-April.

If 2020 area remains consistently below 2019, this will eventually be visible on the 36 day average graph.

This overall picture conceals some differences between the situation in the peripheral and central arctic seas.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 05:19:12 PM
NSIDC - HIGH ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

High Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a 2nd mini-maximum in mid-April, and from then has declined very quickly indeed, but is still a very small proportion of the total melt of 2 million km2 to date.

Area loss from maximum is 0.44 million km2, some 0.24 million km2, 121%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 0.20 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 3rd lowest, just 40k km2 more than 2016 and 101k km2 more than 2011.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of 2.73 million km2, some 0.66 million km2 above the 2012 record minimum of 2.07 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 05:34:12 PM
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

The graphs attached show how the High Arctic has usually not really started significant ice loss in April.

The April monthly average is well below trend, in contrast with the  February monthly average, which was well above trend.

The sea ice area loss in these seas in April was worthy of note.
Future postings will show in which seas this loss has occurred.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 05:57:16 PM
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

1st 4 area graphs attached for the Chukchi, ESS, Laptev, & Kara seas.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 06:09:43 PM
NSIDC High Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

Final 3 area graphs attached  - the CAA, Beaufort, Central Arctic  seas.

As can be seen from these last 2 postings, just about all the action is on the Russian side.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 06:42:26 PM
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

Peripheral Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a its maximum in early March at well above the 2010's average, and from then has declined very quickly indeed to well below the 2010's average.

Area loss from maximum is 1.71 million km2, some 0.64 million km2, 60%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 1.07 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2ndd lowest, just 25k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum..
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 07:01:27 PM
NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis (contd)

The April & March monthly average graphs show area changed from well above average to well below average.

The Plume graph attached shows how in the peripheral seas melt is more or less complete by the end of July.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 07:35:32 PM
NSIDC Peripheral Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

1st 4 area graphs attached for the Okhotsk, Bering, Hudson & St. Lawrence Seas.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 07:40:38 PM
NSIDC Peripheral Arctic Area Analysis (contd)

Last 3 area graphs attached for Baffin Bay, the Greenland & Barents Seas.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 01, 2020, 07:41:46 PM
?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 01, 2020, 09:36:05 PM
Thank you very much indeed for these analyses  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 02, 2020, 03:19:15 AM
Ktb,
thank you for that update - really appreciated that.
Has there ever been a green "TRUE" in your column "Are we on track?" since you started your evaluation?

In short, no. But previously if I play with the data I can get it to say TRUE at the start of every month if the first of the month has a high enough loss.

The way my spreadsheet is set up **this year compared to last years** we would need to drop -2.3 million km2 to get back on track and see a TRUE in that column.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 02, 2020, 05:47:04 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 1st, 2020:
     12,580,895 km2, a drop of -46,125 km2.
     2020 is now 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are the today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2020, 09:58:13 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,580,895 KM2 as at 01-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 46k, 13 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 59k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,867 k, 340 k, 22.3% more than the 10 year average of 1,526 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  344 k MORE than 2019,

On average 15.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 136 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.16 million km2, 0.98 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on May 02, 2020, 10:25:14 AM
"Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum." NOTE: >>

The earlier in season the loss occurs, the less sea ice refugia remains: this increases chances for melting and sea ice scattering by wind or sea currents. It is far from necessity for some ice to remain, but Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin and Okhotsk Sea best proxies that melt-resisting corners might exist. High latitude insulation is 360 degree v. Ohotsk Sea or Hudson Bay's Foxe Basin where lightening conditions in midnight are lower. (Both these have mountains projecting shadows, you can see shadows' effect on the lakes on the spring.) If temperatures rise very high, air mixing leaves behind no cold corners (total loss event).

NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC SEAS Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 30th April 2020

Peripheral Arctic Sea Ice Area reached a its maximum in early March at well above the 2010's average, and from then has declined very quickly indeed to well below the 2010's average.

Area loss from maximum is 1.71 million km2, some 0.64 million km2, 60%, greater than the average of the last 10 years of 1.07 million km2.

At 30th April, 2020 sea ice area is 2ndd lowest, just 25k km2 more than 2016.

Average remaining melt from now would give a minimum value for the High Arctic sea ice area of ZERO km2,but it seems the long right tail of the Gompertz curve rules that a bit if ice will remain at minimum..
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 02, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 01-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,333,302 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,333,302    km2      
-482,546    km2   <   2010's average.
-92,731    km2   <   2019
-805,702    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -26    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -23    k   loss
Central Seas___   -3    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -3    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____   -7    k   loss
Barents ______    0    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -0    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -12    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -5    k   loss
Laptev_______    6    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 26 k, 39 k less than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #2 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -483 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -806 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is -93 k less than 2019          

Slow down in area loss continues.........
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 03, 2020, 06:05:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 2nd, 2020:
     12,539,699 km2, a drop of -41,196 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 03, 2020, 12:02:18 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,539,699 KM2 as at 02-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 41k, 9 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,908 k, 332 k, 21.1% more than the 10 year average of 1,576 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  363 k MORE than 2019,

On average 15.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 135 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.16 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 03, 2020, 03:36:26 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 02-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,333,896 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,333,896    km2      
-414,988    km2   <   2010's average.
 1,874    km2   >   2019
-767,246    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     1    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -12    k   loss
Central Seas___    13    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -6    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    0    k   gain
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    2    k   gain
CAA_________    0    k   gain
East Siberian__   -8    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______    10    k   gain
Kara_________    8    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day -1 k, 68 k less than the 2010's average loss of 67 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -415 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -767 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 2 k more than 2019          

Daily Sea Ice Area loss has declined to a stop. Will this persist or is it a brief pause while the weather moves into a different pattern? My guess is for subdued melt for several days
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 04, 2020, 06:01:52 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 3rd, 2020:
     12,500,250 km2, a drop of -39,449 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 04, 2020, 11:56:55 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,500,250 KM2 as at 03-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 39k, 10 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 1,947 k, 322 k, 19.8% more than the 10 year average of 1,625 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  383 k MORE than 2019,

On average 16.3% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 134 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.17 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Sea Ice Extent loss remaining subdued - at least until the weekend?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 04, 2020, 03:06:55 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 03-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,329,365 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,329,365    km2      
-353,483    km2   <   2010's average.
 79,195    km2   >   2019
-732,523    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -5    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas___    12    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -2    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    1    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_    4    k   gain
Laptev_______    9    k   gain
Kara_________    5    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 5 k, 61 k less than the 2010's average loss of 66 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -353 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -733 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 79 k more than 2019          

Sea ice are loss very low, while sea ice extent loss caught up a bit. Maybe area loss will stay subdued until the weekend - but then GFS says.....(no, too far ahead).
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 05, 2020, 05:50:10 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 4th, 2020:
     12,423,678 km2, a drop of -76,572 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 05, 2020, 06:23:59 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,423,678 KM2 as at 04-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 77k, -26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,024 k, 348 k, 20.7% more than the 10 year average of 1,676 k.
- Extent is at position #5 in the satellite record
- Extent is  336 k MORE than 2019,

On average 16.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 133 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.15 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

Earlier than I thought, warmth is building up in Western North America, & by Saturday at the Pacific end of the Arctic Ocean and over Western Siberia. Next week could be interesting.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 05, 2020, 09:45:08 PM
I took the monthly extent value for April 2020 and added it into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2020) April extent is now 14.55 M km². April 2020 had an average extent of 13.73 M km², which is 0.82 M km² less than that long-term average.
The more or less parallel to normal development in April 2020 kept the actual value above the red long-term linear trend line by 0.29 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this April should have been at 13.44 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus further decreased by one digit (-0.0550 instead of -0.0551).

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 05, 2020, 10:19:16 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 04-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,326,918 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,326,918    km2      
-295,490    km2   <   2010's average.
 148,621    km2   >   2019
-695,099    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -2    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss
Central Seas___    15    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -6    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_    8    k   gain
Laptev_______    5    k   gain
Kara_________    6    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 2 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average loss of 60 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -295 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -695 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 149 k more than 2019          

While area loss stalls, extent loss does not.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 06, 2020, 06:02:15 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,398,930 KM2 as at 05-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 25k, 28 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,049 k, 320 k, 18.5% more than the 10 year average of 1,729 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  357 k MORE than 2019,

On average 17.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 132 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.18 million km2, 1.00 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.

GFS still sayng that come the weekend much of Northern Europe is starting to be given a dose of Arctic cold whille above zero temperatures enter and spread over much of the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait.

The extent plume continues to show how much of an outlier 2012 really was.



Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 06, 2020, 06:03:15 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 5th, 2020:
     12,398,930 km2, a drop of -24,748 km2.
     2020 is 5th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 06, 2020, 03:39:58 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 05-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,337,103 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,337,103    km2      
-229,485    km2   <   2010's average.
 221,969    km2   >   2019
-642,794    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -8    k   loss
Bering _______   -5    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___    3    k   gain
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______    4    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -0    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    7    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    4    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day -10 k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -229 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -643 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 222 k more than 2019          
____________________________________________-
Area loss not only stalls but goes into reverse, while extent loss in the peripheral seas remains strong.
However, GFS is still saying that come the weekend much of Northern Europe will be given a dose of Arctic cold while above zero temperatures enter and spread over much of the Arctic Ocean via the Bering Strait. When the GFS forecast stays pretty solid for several days my anecdotal experience is that it is more likely to be correct.

So maybe come the weekend and next week the Arctic ice will get somewhat of a battering?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 07, 2020, 06:07:49 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 6th, 2020:
     12,369,413 km2, a drop of -29,517 km2.
     2020 is now 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Niall Dollard on May 07, 2020, 10:20:54 AM
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
      
Sea ice area loss gain on this day +10 k -10k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         


Think that bit's right now !  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2020, 12:10:46 PM
         
 Total Change     10    k   gain
Peripheral Seas   -8    k   loss
Central Seas___    18    k   gain
      
Sea ice area loss gain on this day +10 k -10k, 66 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
I made the commentary work on autopilot - and forgot that it would not cope with gains when losses are the norm.

Think that bit's right now !  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2020, 12:25:49 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,369,413 KM2 as at 06-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 30k, 19 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 49k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,078 k, 301 k, 16.9% more than the 10 year average of 1,778 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  393 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________
On average 17.9% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 131 days to minimum
_____
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.20 million km2, 1.02 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Now looks probable that above freezing temperatures will enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean from the Pacific end starting this weekend into at least early next week
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 06-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,329,528 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,329,528    km2      
-194,045    km2   <   2010's average.
 268,998    km2   >   2019
-606,962    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -8    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss
Central Seas___    11    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -7    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____    1    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    1    k   gain
Central Arctic_    6    k   gain
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________    1    k   gain
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 8 k, 35 k less than the 2010's average loss of 43 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -194 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -607 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 269 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Perhaps one can see the first signs of the change from area loss stalling to ...?... as above freezing temperatures enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean in the next few days
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 08, 2020, 05:46:41 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 7th, 2020:
     12,294,656 km2, a drop of -74,757 km2.
     2020 is 6th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2020, 08:44:00 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,294,656 KM2 as at 07-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 75k, -25 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 50k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,153 k, 325 k, 17.8% more than the 10 year average of 1,828 k.
- Extent is at position #6 in the satellite record
- Extent is  352 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 18.4% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 130 days to minimum
_____
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.17 million km2, 0.99 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2020, 03:32:38 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 07-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,298,255 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,298,255    km2      
-184,636    km2   <   2010's average.
 277,719    km2   >   2019
-594,327    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -31    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___    2    k   gain
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -9    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -4    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____   -5    k   loss
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____    0    k   gain
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__    4    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    3    k   gain
Kara_________   -1    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 31 k, 10 k less than the 2010's average loss of 41 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -185 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -594 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 278 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         

It looks very much as if one can see the first signs of the change from area loss stalling to a new wave of area losses as above freezing temperatures enter a considerable part of the Arctic Ocean starting this weekend.

Daily Extent has lost 200k in 2 days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 09, 2020, 06:10:44 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

Google traductor:

The Arctic Data Archive System (ADS) will be closed at the following times due to system maintenance.
We apologize for any inconvenience caused.
・ Maintenance date and time
Friday, May 8, 2020 17:00 to May 11, 9:00

https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1258615077885759499?s=20 (https://twitter.com/ADS_NIPR/status/1258615077885759499?s=20)
 :(
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: nanning on May 09, 2020, 04:31:10 PM
Take a well deserved break Juan! Leave your tech at home for a couple of days.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 09, 2020, 04:33:52 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 08-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,260,469 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,260,469    km2      
-180,124    km2   <   2010's average.
 277,480    km2   >   2019
-584,265    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -38    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -31    k   loss
Central Seas___   -7    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -4    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -6    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____    1    k   gain
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Greenland____   -3    k   loss
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -5    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 38 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average loss of 42 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -180 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -584 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 277 k more than 2019          
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Stephan on May 10, 2020, 11:15:38 AM
Evaluation "relative area wise" from Apr 21 to May 08, 2020.
No changes in most of the Central Arctic Seas. The only relevant differences were detected in ESS and Kara Seas (each -6%).
All of the Peripheral Seas show losses. The last of the seas (Hudson) now also joined the melting season. The list is dominated by Okhotsk (-63 %), followed by
Bering (-25 %) and Barents (-17 %).
Hudson, Baffin and Grønland Seas lost 8-9 % of their ice area.
More or less irrelevant is the 5 % loss of St. Lawrence which has almost melted completely.

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 10, 2020, 03:41:16 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 09-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,212,190 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,212,190    km2      
-181,544    km2   <   2010's average.
 258,817    km2   >   2019
-583,880    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -48    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -33    k   loss
Central Seas___   -15    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -11    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -2    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    0    k   gain
Barents ______   -14    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______    0    k   gain
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    7    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -2    k   loss
Laptev_______    1    k   gain
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 48 k, -1 k more than the 2010's average loss of 47 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -182 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -584 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 259 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Area loss up a bit more.
It just maybe that over the next week or more we will see Arctic sea ice (and snow cover) under attack on all  fronts at various times - i.e. a major warming event
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: zufall on May 11, 2020, 06:42:07 AM
JAXA ViSHOP available again, but with no new data. The extent of May 7 is still the latest value.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 11, 2020, 07:24:15 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 10th, 2020:
     
The system is back, but it is 2 hours later than usual and they have not posted the new data.
It is time for me to go to bed.
If someone else (surely Gerontocrat) post the data.
Thanks.

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on May 11, 2020, 12:37:29 PM
I have moved two good posts to the melting season thread where they fit better, but then realized a part was pertinent here:
It is 1030 am. & still no JAXA data - patience is a virtue?

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2020, 03:27:49 PM
I have moved two good posts to the melting season thread where they fit better, but then realized a part was pertinent here:
It is 1030 am. & still no JAXA data - patience is a virtue?

Quite right, Oren - it's just that they get so ratty on the melting thread. Meanwhile - NSIDC Area Data

NSIDC Total Area as at 10-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,144,179 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,144,179    km2      
-199,626    km2   <   2010's average.
 222,516    km2   >   2019
-607,260    km2   <   2000's average.
         
 Total Change    -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -42    k   loss
Central Seas___   -26    k   loss
         
 Peripheral Seas          
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -18    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -4    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    3    k   gain
Barents ______   -10    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -1    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    0    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -1    k   loss
Kara_________   -16    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 68 k, -18 k more than the 2010's average loss of 50 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -200 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -607 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 223 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Arctic temperature anomaly +2.0 celsius now, + 4.1 by the 15th May, (and perhaps between +4 & +4.5 for the week after.). Methinks lot of ice and a lot of snow is going to melt.

Watch this space for the unfolding of the Great 2020 Mid-May Melting Event ?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2020, 03:40:24 PM
The Peripheral Seas continue to lose ice area ahead of schedule.

The Central Seas resist - with the Kara looking the most vulnerable.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2020, 07:37:10 PM
A closer look at the 7 Peripheral seas

NSIDC - PERIPHERAL ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format at 10 May 2020  2,810,027 km2

4th lowest after a few days of below average area loss.
A new wave of losses may have started.

The failed spreadsheet of projections still looking at zero ice at minimum, but with more years showing ice at greater than zero.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 11, 2020, 07:38:32 PM
and here is the plume of projections using previous years' remaining melt.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 12, 2020, 05:52:49 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 8th, 2020:
     12,203,915 km2, a drop of -90,741 km2.
May 9th, 2020:
     12,142,756 km2, a drop of -61,159 km2.
May 10th, 2020:
     12,072,219 km2, a drop of -70,537 km2.

May 11th, 2020:
     12,019,349 km2, a drop of -52,870 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 12, 2020, 06:07:18 AM
Kara should go berserk soon as the WAA is heading for the area.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2020, 10:59:14 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  12,019,349 KM2 as at 11-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 53k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 57k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,428 k, 354 k, 17.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,075 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  208 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 20.8% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 126 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Arctic temperature anomalies in the range +2.5 to +4.5 celsius in the next 5 days, (and maybe after that in the range +3.5 to + 4.5).  The last table shows the daily change in extent in May of the 4 years with the lowest September minimum. If the forecast temperatures hold, 2020 may well stay in that group.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2020, 03:27:36 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 11-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,082,598 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,082,598    km2      
-209,433    km2   <   2010's average.
 178,874    km2   >   2019
-620,320    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -62    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -27    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -16    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -5    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -3    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -7    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -0    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -13    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 62 k, -10 k more than the 2010's average loss of 52 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -209 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -620 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 179 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
13 out of 14 seas with an area loss.
With the likelihood that the Arctic temperature will remain considerably above the average, some acceleration in area (and extent) loss is possible or even probable.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 12, 2020, 03:40:01 PM
Hudson Bay & the Kara Sea are certainly candidates for significant ice losses over the next week or so, reflecting that the warmth is all over the place at various times.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 13, 2020, 05:46:09 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 12th, 2020:
     11,961,735 km2, a drop of -57,614 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 20 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 13, 2020, 09:18:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,961,735 KM2 as at 12-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 58k, 8 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 66k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,486 k, 345 k, 16.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,141 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  173 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 21.5% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 125 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.15 million km2, 0.97 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 13, 2020, 03:10:14 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 12-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,028,014 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 11,028,014    km2      
-207,617    km2   <   2010's average.
 153,061    km2   >   2019
-625,109    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -55    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -24    k   loss
Central Seas___   -30    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
Bering _______   -7    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -13    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___    2    k   gain
Greenland____    4    k   gain
Barents ______    3    k   gain
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -2    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -3    k   loss
East Siberian__   -5    k   loss
Central Arctic_    2    k   gain
Laptev_______   -3    k   loss
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 55 k, 1 k less than the 2010's average loss of 56 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #4 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is -208 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is -625 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 153 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Steady but not remarkable area losses in the last few days.
Kara loses ice, & Barents/Greenland Seas gain ice, but by this time of year freezing in these seas is pretty much ceased. So any additional ice arriving in the Barents/Greenland is being sent to oblivion, i.e. a watery grave (sorry), impoverishing ice content in the CAB.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 14, 2020, 05:47:38 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 13th, 2020:
     11,896,812 km2, a drop of -64,923 km2.
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 14, 2020, 09:02:06 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,896,812 KM2 as at 13-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 65k, -12 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,551 k, 357 k, 16.3% more than the 10 year average of 2,193 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  175 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 22.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 124 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.14 million km2, 0.96 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 14, 2020, 03:25:46 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 13-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,950,184 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,950,184    km2      
-227,586    km2   <   2010's average.
 109,394    km2   >   2019
-654,592    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -78    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -36    k   loss
Central Seas___   -42    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss
Bering _______   -8    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -7    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss
St Lawrence___    1    k   gain
Greenland____    6    k   gain
Barents ______   -7    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -7    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -8    k   loss
CAA_________   -1    k   loss
East Siberian__   -7    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -1    k   loss
Laptev_______   -4    k   loss
Kara_________   -14    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 78 k, -20 k more than the 2010's average loss of 58 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 228 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 655 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 109 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Steady but not remarkable area losses gradually increasing in the last few days - now at well above average.

Also an interesting switch - area loss in the Central Seas higher than in the periphery for the last 2 days. I thought this switch normally came later when peripheral seas had lost much more ice.

Kara loses ice, & Greenland Sea gains ice (Fram export), but by this time of year freezing in the Greenland sea is pretty much history.

Average Arctic temperatures look like staying well above average for the next 10 days - Western & Central Siberia look like damnation without relief. Only marginal +ve anomalies in the CAA and Pacific end of the Arctic Ocean.

This could be a long period of above average sea ice area losses.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 14, 2020, 03:47:28 PM
NSIDC - HIGH ARCTIC Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 13-May-2020 :- 8,234,529 km2

With melting in the 7 seas of the High Arctic underway, here is some data..

Area 3rd lowest in the satellite record, down from 21st, yes #21, on April 17.

Area loss from maximum 523k km2, 156k ( 42% ) less than the average of 156k.

Too early in the season to make meaningful projections, so instead here is the official map of the NSIDC Arctic seas, that are consistent with the tables posted abve.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 15, 2020, 05:54:00 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 14th, 2020:
     11,744,488 km2, a century drop of -152,324 km2.  :o
     2020 is 4th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
     2013 has a missing value, average calculated.
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 10:45:22 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,744,488 KM2 as at 14-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 152k, -99 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,703 k, 457 k, 20.4% more than the 10 year average of 2,246 k.
- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record
- Extent is  87 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 22.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 123 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 4.04 million km2, 0.86 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
“What a difference a day makes, 24 little hours...”
This daily area loss is the maximum daily loss in May (since 2002) by 21k.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wallen on May 15, 2020, 12:55:09 PM
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Neven on May 15, 2020, 01:17:18 PM
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?

It is in my spreadsheet, which starts in 2005:
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 01:30:45 PM
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: wallen on May 15, 2020, 03:09:30 PM
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.

No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 03:44:56 PM
152k extent loss fro the 14th May. Is this record for May or at least the first half of May?
Why do I post? Read it.
No offence meant I did read your post. Nevin's spreadsheet gave me a better read on what I was looking for.
Sorry, I was listening to Radio4 talking about what our Govt is doing about Covid-19.
Enough to make the most even-tempered individual feeling really ratty.

Meanwhile....

NSIDC Total Area as at 14-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,881,568 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,881,568    km2      
-231,465    km2   <   2010's average.
 89,890    km2   >   2019
-671,697    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -69    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -34    k   loss
Central Seas___   -35    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -10    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    1    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Greenland____   -0    k   loss
Barents ______   -8    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -11    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -6    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -6    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -7    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 69 k, -4 k more than the 2010's average loss of 65 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 231 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 672 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 90 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
Note that this daily area loss is only 4k less than the 2010's average for this day.
We are soon to enter the peak melting period. By mid-June the average daily sea ice area loss is over 100k.

But if the rest of this month shows above average loss the effect may be more significant (e.g. on AWP- Albedo Warming Potential) than larger losses at a later date.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 04:17:17 PM
NSIDC Area data (continued)

One oddity that is continuing is that
- area loss in the periphery now below average,
- area loss in the high Arctic now above average.

Not sure what that means (if anything). Ice in the Central seas (literally) in rotten shape?

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on May 15, 2020, 08:01:04 PM
I moved the posts to the Melting Season thread where they belong, thank you BL for the heads up.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 16, 2020, 05:53:32 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 15th, 2020:
     11,637,165 km2, a century drop of -107,323 km2.
     2020 is now 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 08:30:35 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,637,165 KM2 as at 15-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 107k, -60 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 47k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,810 k, 518 k, 22.6% more than the 10 year average of 2,293 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  69 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 23.0% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 122 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.98 million km2, 0.80 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
“What a difference 2 days make, 48 little hours...”
The maximum daily loss in May (since 2002) by 21k followed by a century break counts as an event?

What comes next ?
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Ktb on May 16, 2020, 11:06:21 AM
Semimonthly BOE evaluation - Mid monthly so no BOE comparison to other years

May 15th extent was 11,637,165 km2. With on average 121 days to go until the end of the melt season on September 13th, we now require a daily drop of -87,910 km2 for a BOE to occur. (See Attachment 1).

Total extent loss thus far in May 2020 was -989,855 km2. And total extent loss so far this season is -2,810,476 km2. This has resulted in the current average daily melt rate of -38,500 km2. If the month of May ended today, this would be the 12th slowest rate of melt for the same period for the years 2007-2020. (See Attachment 2).
Additional note: The average melt from maximum to May 31st (2007-2019) is ~3.1 mil km2, we are some 290,000 km2 away with 16 days in May to go.

Looking only at the month of May thus far, we have averaged -65,990 km2 per day. If the month of May ended today, this average daily drop places May 2020 as 2nd out of 14 (2007-2020) in average daily May melt, behind only 2010. (See Attachment 3).

What do the ASIF gods see in the melt season thread? Preconditioning. Albedo loss. Anomalous heat. High pressure ridging. Impending/continued snow loss over Eurasia.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 03:37:35 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 15-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,807,936 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,807,936    km2      
-241,934    km2   <   2010's average.
 61,614    km2   >   2019
-689,541    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -74    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -37    k   loss
Central Seas___   -37    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -4    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    3    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -11    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss
Greenland____    1    k   gain
Barents ______   -20    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -5    k   loss
CAA_________    2    k   gain
East Siberian__   -1    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -8    k   loss
Laptev_______   -2    k   loss
Kara_________   -9    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 74 k, -11 k more than the 2010's average loss of 63 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 242 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 690 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 62 k more than 2019          
___________________________________________         
A significant series of daily sea ice loss emerging - but 2016 is still the year when early melt really pushed the AWP graph up.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 17, 2020, 05:49:04 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 16th, 2020:
     11,549,869 km2, a drop of -87,296 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 17, 2020, 09:23:58 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,549,869 KM2 as at 16-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 87k, -26 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 61k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,898 k, 545 k, 23.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,353 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  62 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 23.6% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 121 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.95 million km2, 0.77 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 17, 2020, 04:59:59 PM
It looks like no NSIDC data arriving today.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 18, 2020, 05:45:18 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 17th, 2020:
     11,463,303 km2, a drop of -86,566 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 12:20:59 PM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,463,303 KM2 as at 17-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 87k, -29 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 58k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 2,984 k, 573 k, 23.8% more than the 10 year average of 2,411 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  42 k MORE than 2019,
______________________________-
On average 24.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 120 days to minimum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.92 million km2, 0.75 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
______________________________
With Arctic temperatures (per GFS) set to remain at 3 to 4.5 degrees celsius above average it is difficult not to see above average daily sea ice losses for the next week and more.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 03:16:19 PM
NSIDC Total Area as at 17-May-2020 (5 day trailing average) 10,624,423 KM2         
         
Total Area         
 10,624,423    km2      
-300,436    km2   <   2010's average.
 12,616    km2   >   2019
-759,547    km2   <   2000's average.
         
Total Change   -98    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -48    k   loss
Central Seas___   -50    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Okhotsk______   -5    k   loss
Bering _______   -6    k   loss
Hudson Bay___    4    k   gain
Baffin  Bay____   -9    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss
Greenland____   -2    k   loss
Barents ______   -28    k   loss
         
Central Arctic  Ocean Seas         
Chukchi______   -13    k   loss
Beaufort_____   -3    k   loss
CAA_________    1    k   gain
East Siberian__   -2    k   loss
Central Arctic_   -10    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Kara_________   -15    k   loss
         
Sea ice area loss on this day 98 k, -37 k more than the 2010's average loss of 61 k         
         
- 2020 area is at position #3 in the satellite record.         
- 2020 Area is 300 k less than the 2010's average         
- 2020 Area is 760 k less than the 2000's average         
         
- 2020 Area is 13 k more than 2019          
______________________________________________
After looking at the tables attached...
- my first reaction was a Friv to whit "Fuck-a-Duck",
- my 2nd reaction was that I could not remember seeing just about every sea being clobbered this widespread way,
- my third reaction was - but look at Hudson Bay & the CAA, the cold in North Central Canada still hanging on,
- my 4th reaction was - these are 5 day trailing averages, which means more to come

Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 06:25:55 PM
Another  look at NSIDC Area data.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 17-05-2020 :-  10,624,423 km2

Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less MORE than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Average melt from now would give a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 greater than the record low 2016 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: jdallen on May 18, 2020, 10:37:22 PM
Another  look at NSIDC Area data.

NSIDC Total Area Analysis in Jaxa Format as at 17-05-2020 :-  10,624,423 km2

Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Average melt from now would give a minimum of 2.73 million km2, 0.48 million km2 greater than the record low 2016 minimum of 2.25 million km2.
Moreso than extent, this is the metric I will be watching most carefully over the coming months.

I'd prefer volume, but data on that is less certain.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: oren on May 18, 2020, 10:59:58 PM
2012 was the record low 2.25M.
2016 came in as a respectable 2nd with 2.45M.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: binntho on May 19, 2020, 04:11:18 AM
Area loss from maximum this season 2.74 million Km2, 0.45 million (20%) less than the average of 2.29 million km2.

Not that I usually quibble over small mistakes (!) but this made me scratch my head. Isn't it more correct to say that area loss is 20% more than the average to date?

I.e. the average is 2.29, loss to date is 2.74, the difference is 0.45 which is 19.65% of the average.
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Juan C. García on May 19, 2020, 06:25:39 AM
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

May 18th, 2020:
     11,413,895 km2, a drop of -49,408 km2.
     2020 is 3rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 17 lowest years.
     Highlighted the 4 years with September lowest min (2012, 2019, 2016, 2007) & 2020.
      Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent (https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent)
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: gerontocrat on May 19, 2020, 06:41:53 AM
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  11,413,895 KM2 as at 18-May-2020

- Extent loss on this day 49k, 4 k less than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 53k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 3,034 k, 569 k, 23.1% more than the 10 year average of 2,465 k.
- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record
- Extent is  39 k MORE