Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Science => Topic started by: Stephan on January 12, 2020, 04:33:11 PM

Title: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 12, 2020, 04:33:11 PM
Last year next week had an average of 411.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values will result in a 2.3 ± 0.3 ppm increase. From mid January on the values generally rise much higher than in late autumn or December.

I got the weekly value last year wrong (I took the average value of the week later and did not carefully look at the scale of the y-axis - sorry). Therefore my Sunday evening CO2 posting begins with an excuse.

Week beginning on January 5, 2020:     413.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             409.94 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          388.21 ppm
Last updated: January 12, 2020

The annual increase stays above 3.4 ppm. This is no good news for this year. It has just begun - and unfortunately with this massive increase.
The high variability of the last weeks has disappeared. The values are much more in line, daily and hourly averages.
We have the same CO2 level than in April last year. This means we are three months before schedule.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 410.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values will result in a 2.3 ± 0.3 ppm increase. From mid January on the values generally rise much higher than in late autumn or December.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Rodius on January 16, 2020, 03:32:52 AM
I am fairly sure the answer is not to this question but......

..... is it possible the fires in Australia are large enough to give a short uptick in CO2 levels for the beginning of this year?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 16, 2020, 08:37:58 AM
Hi Rodius, good question.
I've read that some 600 MT of CO₂ has been emitted by the bushfires this season. Not a burst, so it has had time to mix into the atmosphere.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere
"Each part per million by volume of CO2 in the atmosphere represents approximately 2.13 gigatonnes of carbon, or 7.82 gigatonnes of CO2.[14]"

So the bushfires contributed 0.4/7.82= ca. 0.05 ppm.
Therefore I'd say it has had no discernible influence on the Mauna Loa reading.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Rodius on January 16, 2020, 10:04:25 AM
Thanks for the reply.
Maybe in three more months it will though.....  :o
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 19, 2020, 06:10:22 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 410.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values will result in a 2.3 ± 0.3 ppm increase. From mid January on the values generally rise much higher than in late autumn or December.

My Sunday evening CO2 information:
Week beginning on January 12, 2020:     412.82 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               410.66 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             388.41 ppm
Last updated: January 19, 2020

This week I got it right. The annual increase has shifted back to values we saw in December 2019. Nevertheless, an increase of "only" 2.16 ppm would have been unprecedented 30-40 years ago. So we got used to see these high values...

Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 412 ppm with an extreme intra-day variability. This year it looks much smoother; I expect an annual increase around 1.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 19, 2020, 06:42:05 PM
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on January 19, 2020, 08:36:10 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 410.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values will result in a 2.3 ± 0.3 ppm increase. From mid January on the values generally rise much higher than in late autumn or December.

 an increase of "only" 2.16 ppm ...
Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 412 ppm with an extreme intra-day variability. This year it looks much smoother; I expect an annual increase around 1.75 ± 0.25 ppm.

We shouldn't over-interpret this, but these values indicate that we are on a linear patch of CO2 growth path. Not as expected, on an exponential growth path.
My long term forecast: Peak CO2 not later than 2030.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on January 19, 2020, 08:43:31 PM
Thank you for these regular updates Stephan.
Hefaistos I am astounded by your optimism, for which I find no basis in current reality. 10 years is a very short time to turn around the immense ship of the global fossil fuel economy. I estimate the turning time as at least 50 years, of which humanity has barely achieved maybe 10 net. Every year that passes with the wheel only partially turned means more time is lost. 2030 for peak CO2? No way.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 19, 2020, 09:09:05 PM
Hefaistos,
you cannot over-interprete a predicted lower increase value in the next week than in this week and speculate about a change in the overall growth pattern. The annual increase is depending on the actual value and the value last year. If - like in this case - there was a jump last year, then, of course, the annual increase is lower.
Please check out the Keeling curve at NOAA. Take a ruler to follow the increase of CO2. You will find that this increase is not linear, but slowly accelerating. And so is it in 2020.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 19, 2020, 09:12:35 PM
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.
nanning,
I will do it in the next time. I have the monthly reading of four gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6) on my PC, in different files, and I can put them together. Before I do that I'd like to have widely accepted "exchange rates" [GHG factors] between the different gases. At least for methane there is a large variety of values - ranging from 20 to 160 - around. Maybe this forum can advice me which number to use?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on January 19, 2020, 09:41:58 PM
Hefaistos,
you cannot over-interprete a predicted lower increase value in the next week than in this week and speculate about a change in the overall growth pattern. The annual increase is depending on the actual value and the value last year. If - like in this case - there was a jump last year, then, of course, the annual increase is lower.
Please check out the Keeling curve at NOAA. Take a ruler to follow the increase of CO2. You will find that this increase is not linear, but slowly accelerating. And so is it in 2020.

We had a discussion in one of the other CO2 threads about the sign of the third derivative of the Keeling curve. For some months now I see signs that we are not on a exponential growth, but linear growth.
2020 will tell.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 20, 2020, 05:41:54 AM
Thanks Stephan, nice of you. You could put in both the low and high factors for 2 figures of CO2e.
-

Re: Atmospheric CO₂ growth

Please don't forget the permafrost as an increasing source. Already at 1.6±0.5 GT/year which is (much) more than all of aviation. And set to increase exponentially with a warming atmosphere, especially high up north.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wdmn on January 20, 2020, 06:28:09 AM
Stephen,

Not sure if you're familiar with this thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2383.0.html

But I think we're unlikely to reach consensus on which number to use.


Edit:

Here's my thinking on the subject.

I limit my thoughts to CH4 because I don't really know anything about the other GHGs. Nevertheless reasoning would apply to those also.

The IPCC favours the lower multiplier because all of their modelling is over the ~100 year timeline (to 2100).

And because ECS as a measurement assumes that atmospheric levels of co2 are "sustained."

I am not sure for how long these atmospheric levels have to be "sustained," and the answer to that is KEY to determining which multiplier for CH4 to use when thinking in terms of ECS.

TCR does not require "sustained" levels as far as I can tell, because it tracks only the effect of fast responses to the change in forcing, and not the slower feedbacks. Therefore when thinking in terms of TCR, we should be using the high multiplier.*

Because CO2 basically persists for the timelines we're concerned with, unless we remove it from the atmosphere, we can talk of RF of our current CO2 as "locked in" for both short term warming and longer term feedbacks.

But CH4 doesn't persist in the atmosphere. Because we don't know how long CH4 emissions will either increase or be constant, we can't talk over longer time frames. If they decrease 5 years from now, then our calculations based on current RF will not be realized.

So another key question is: how long does it take for the maximum "fast" response to increase in CH4 RF to be realized? Is it like CO2 (10-40 years is the number usually given for CO2)?

*Based on the answer to the question just stated in this ^ paragraph, using the higher multiplier for TCR may not be justified (i.e. if response takes 40 years, and CO2e were to decline shortly after doubling due to reductions in CH4).

Certainly we should be using the higher multiplier to think about policy in relation to TCR. How close are we to doubling using the high multiplier (or have we already)?

Of course we also need the concentration of all these GHGs from the time when CO2 was 280ppm.

And you need to account for negative forcing from aerosols.

Honestly I don't see us ever doubling pre-industrial co2, which would be about 560ppm. We'd have to go at least at current rate of growth for another ~60 years. CO2e is a different story, but aerosol question is key. How much of the CO2e is masked, and how much will that be reduced before the CO2e starts to drop?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 20, 2020, 03:55:34 PM

...But CH4 doesn't persist in the atmosphere. Because we don't know how long CH4 emissions will either increase or be constant, we can't talk over longer time frames. If they decrease 5 years from now, then our calculations based on current RF will not be realized...

It is, indeed, a nuanced question.  For purposes of weighing the cost of emitting a given amount of methane, the relatively rapid oxidation of that methane is highly relevant.

However, given the abundant positive feedbacks that promote natural emission sources of methane, one must conclude that future falls in methane levels seem improbable over the next several decades.  How much heating are these elevated levels causing today and over these next several decades?  A very different question, and one for which the oxidation of methane is an irrelevant factoid. 

That is, if we make the wildly optimistic assumption that current atmospheric levels are now at steady-state, that oxidation is perfectly balanced against total emissions, and that levels will cease rising (or falling), then the the pace of oxidation is irrelevant to any practical considerations.  It's only relevant that emissions balance this removal.  For these considerations, the instantaneous relative greenhouse warming potential is what's important.  I, too, have seen varying values, but 120 or higher seems the right ballpark.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wdmn on January 20, 2020, 04:04:32 PM
Thanks Steve,

Where did the 120 number come from? I always see the GWP20 number of 84-87.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 20, 2020, 04:12:15 PM
I agree Steve, thanks for that clear argumentation.
So the high factor is the one giving the short-term (decades) GHG/forcing information.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 20, 2020, 04:35:54 PM
Thanks Steve,

Where did the 120 number come from? I always see the GWP20 number of 84-87.

We're in the wrong thread for that, and you're not asking a genuine expert.  Extensive discussions have hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed the arguments in the methane threads.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on January 20, 2020, 07:03:00 PM
A bit off-topic, posted to give some data about current calculations of CO2e of CH4 emissions

I have always just used what the NOAA does to calculate CO2e and their Atmospheric Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) , that can be found at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

It is only updated annually, but from the attached table you can work out how to calculate the latest value of CO2e and the AGGI from monthly data

For CH4, the 2018 average ppb is equates to a CO2 of 82 ppm, so a CH4 increase of 10 ppb (around the current annual increase) has a CO2e of 0.44 ppm. You can do a similar calculation for N2O ppb, in 2018 having a CO2e of 32 ppm.

Monthly & Annual data is available from  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_sf6/. The data available includes SF6, which I don't think is in NOAA's calculation of CO2e. Should it?

I will just wait for the 2019 update - but if CO2e comes in at less than 500, I will be amazed.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wdmn on January 20, 2020, 07:14:37 PM
Thanks Steve,

Where did the 120 number come from? I always see the GWP20 number of 84-87.

We're in the wrong thread for that, and you're not asking a genuine expert.  Extensive discussions have hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed the arguments in the methane threads.

Was hoping for a link is all.

@gerotocrat.
They are clearly using a lower multiplier... it would be well over 500 otherwise.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 20, 2020, 10:09:10 PM
Thanks Steve,

Where did the 120 number come from? I always see the GWP20 number of 84-87.

We're in the wrong thread for that, and you're not asking a genuine expert.  Extensive discussions have hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed the arguments in the methane threads.

Was hoping for a link is all.
 ...

See this post:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2383.msg168852.html#msg168852
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 20, 2020, 10:26:38 PM
Thanks Steve,

Where did the 120 number come from? I always see the GWP20 number of 84-87.

We're in the wrong thread for that, and you're not asking a genuine expert.  Extensive discussions have hashed, re-hashed, and re-re-hashed the arguments in the methane threads.

Was hoping for a link is all.
 ...

See this post:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2383.msg168852.html#msg168852

Attached are Figures 8.29 & 8.32 from AR5 show information on the global warming potential (GWP) of methane.

Title: "Chapter 8:  Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing"

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf

Also, for the sake of clarity, I note that, the EPA uses a GWP100 value of 25 for methane for their GHG emissions account because they made a policy decision to stay with the AR4 values:

https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch2s2-10-2.html

Nevertheless, the EPA acknowledges that the GWP100 value for methane may be as high as 36 (when account for climate-carbon feedback and aerosol interaction).  As 36/25 = 1.44 this policy decision represents a significant under accounting for the significance of methane for global warming. This is almost certainly resulting in reduced efforts to reduce methane emissions as to what would be optimal policy.

Title: "Understanding Global Warming Potentials"

https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/understanding-global-warming-potentials

Extract: "Methane (CH4) is estimated to have a GWP of 28–36 over 100 years"

What GWP estimates does EPA use for GHG emissions accounting, such as the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (Inventory) and the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program?

The EPA considers the GWP estimates presented in the most recent IPCC scientific assessment to reflect the state of the science. In science communications, the EPA will refer to the most recent GWPs. The GWPs listed above are from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report, published in 2014.

The EPA's Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (Inventory) complies with international GHG reporting standards under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). UNFCCC guidelines now require the use of the GWP values for the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007. The Inventory also presents emissions by mass, so that CO2 equivalents can be calculated using any GWPs, and emission totals using more recent IPCC values are presented in the annexes of the Inventory report for informational purposes.

Data collected by EPA's Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program is used in the Inventory, so the Reporting Program generally uses GWP values from the AR4. The Reporting Program collects data about some industrial gases that do not have GWPs listed in the AR4; for these gases, the Reporting Program uses GWP values from other sources, such as the Fifth Assessment Report.
EPA's CH4 reduction voluntary programs also use CH4 GWPs from the AR4 report for calculating CH4 emissions reductions through energy recovery projects, for consistency with the national emissions presented in the Inventory."

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Richard Rathbone on January 21, 2020, 12:41:56 AM
GWP is a tool for comparing emissions, not atmospheric levels.

If what you want to to is monitor what the atmosphere is actually doing now, rather than what an emission will do in the future, you should be using something else such as radiative forcing.

e.g. see  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

for details on how the NOAA do it, and the annual averages they calculate (496 for 2018 is their latest value, its quite possible its hitting 500 round about now)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wdmn on January 21, 2020, 07:53:45 AM
@RR
But RF is a function of atmospheric levels...

Anyway, just found the attached image in James Hansen's latest communication, which is available here: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2020/20200115_Temperature2019.pdf

The image has growth in GHGs converted into RF, and also gives the equivalent temperature change (based on the assumption that an RF of 1 W/m^2 warms the earth 0.75C).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Ken Feldman on January 21, 2020, 06:59:22 PM
The radiative forcings for Methane were updated in 2016.  This is probably what will be used for AR6.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071930 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016GL071930)

Quote
Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing
M. Etminan, G. Myhre, E. J. Highwood, K. P. Shine
First published: 27 December 2016

Abstract

New calculations of the radiative forcing (RF) are presented for the three main well‐mixed greenhouse gases, methane, nitrous oxide, and carbon dioxide. Methane's RF is particularly impacted because of the inclusion of the shortwave forcing; the 1750–2011 RF is about 25% higher (increasing from 0.48 W m−2 to 0.61 W m−2) compared to the value in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2013 assessment; the 100 year global warming potential is 14% higher than the IPCC value. We present new simplified expressions to calculate RF. Unlike previous expressions used by IPCC, the new ones include the overlap between CO2 and N2O; for N2O forcing, the CO2 overlap can be as important as the CH4 overlap. The 1750–2011 CO2 RF is within 1% of IPCC's value but is about 10% higher when CO2 amounts reach 2000 ppm, a value projected to be possible under the extended RCP8.5 scenario.

Plain Language Summary

“Radiative forcing” is an important method to assess the importance of different climate change mechanisms, and is used, for example, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, are the major component of the human activity that led the IPCC, in its 2013 Assessment, to conclude that “it is extremely likely that human influence is the dominant cause of warming since the mid‐20th century.” In this letter, we report new and detailed calculations that aimed to update the simpler methods of computing the radiative forcing that have been used in IPCC assessments, and elsewhere. The major result is that radiative forcing due to methane is around 20‐25% higher than that found using the previous simpler methods. The main reason for this is the inclusion of the absorption of solar radiation by methane, a mechanism that had not been included in earlier calculations. We examine the mechanisms by which this solar absorption causes this radiative forcing. The work has significance for assessments of the climate impacts of methane emissions due to human activity, and for the way methane is included in international climate agreements.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2020, 09:24:50 PM
Effective radiative forcing is probably the most scientific way to value the importance of the various forcing components cited in the linked reference.  For comparison I provide the attached image showing NOAA's values of radiative forcing, CO2e and AGGI from 2014 thru 2018 (which assumes a GWP100 for methane of 25).

Smith, C. J., Kramer, R. J., Myhre, G., Alterskjær, K., Collins, W., Sima, A., Boucher, O., Dufresne, J.-L., Nabat, P., Michou, M., Yukimoto, S., Cole, J., Paynter, D., Shiogama, H., O'Connor, F. M., Robertson, E., Wiltshire, A., Andrews, T., Hannay, C., Miller, R., Nazarenko, L., Kirkevåg, A., Olivié, D., Fiedler, S., Pincus, R., and Forster, P. M.: Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-2019-1212, in review, 2020.

https://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2019-1212/

Abstract. The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 13 contemporary climate models that are participating in CMIP6 and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) from climate models stands at 1.97 (± 0.26) W m−2, comprised of 1.80 (± 0.11) W m−2 from CO2, 1.07 (± 0.21) W m−2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, −1.04 (± 0.23) W m−2 from aerosols and −0.08 (± 0.14) W m−2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are one standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 % confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 W m−2. The majority of the remaining 0.17 W m−2 is likely to be from ozone. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the traditional stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing, but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from −0.63 to −1.37 W m−2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4 × CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with equilibrium climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing.

Edit: To make my point clearer, using NOAA's radiative forcing data for 2014 the ratio of other well mixed greenhouse gases to that for CO2 one gets: 1.027/1.908 = 0.538; while per the referenced effective radiative forcing data for 2014 the ratio is 1.07/1.80 = 0.594.  This implies that when considering effective radiative forcing vs radiative forcing, other well mixed greenhouse gases are 0.594/0.538 = 1.104 times more significant than NOAA is indicating to the general public and decision makers.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 23, 2020, 10:20:39 PM
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.
nanning,
I will do it in the next time. I have the monthly reading of four gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6) on my PC, in different files, and I can put them together.
I did it, but the sum differs from what I saw from gerontocrat's posting further upthread where he provides NOAA's annual table.
I took the monthly concentrations (beginning from 2000 on, before that date I do not have all the four gases) and multiplied CH4 with the factors 85 (20 years) and 28 (100 years), N2O with 264 (20 & 100 years), and finally SF6 with 17500 (20 years) and 23500 (100 years), using the conversion factors from the later IPCC report. Then I looked up the definition of these CO2 equivalents, which are not given in moles, but in kg and converted the numbers by taking their molecular weight.
I end up with the latest data (Sep 2019) with the following values (100 years equivalent):
CO2: 408.54
CH4:   19.05
N2O:   87.65
SF6    0.78
sum: 516.01
This sum is higher than the CO2 eq given further upthread. Also the proportions of the ratio CH4 to N2O differs completely from NOAA's table. Where is the error?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on January 23, 2020, 10:40:50 PM
Thank you Stephan. Since you are regularly updating several GHG readings, would it be possible to add a CO2e figure?
In that way we'll have the cumulative GHG effect updated. I know it depends on assumptions but you can put those in.
nanning,
I will do it in the next time. I have the monthly reading of four gas concentrations (CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6) on my PC, in different files, and I can put them together.
I did it, but the sum differs from what I saw from gerontocrat's posting further upthread where he provides NOAA's annual table.
I took the monthly concentrations (beginning from 2000 on, before that date I do not have all the four gases) and multiplied CH4 with the factors 85 (20 years) and 28 (100 years), N2O with 264 (20 & 100 years), and finally SF6 with 17500 (20 years) and 23500 (100 years), using the conversion factors from the later IPCC report. Then I looked up the definition of these CO2 equivalents, which are not given in moles, but in kg and converted the numbers by taking their molecular weight.
I end up with the latest data (Sep 2019) with the following values (100 years equivalent):
CO2: 408.54
CH4:   19.05
N2O:   87.65
SF6    0.78
sum: 516.01
This sum is higher than the CO2 eq given further upthread. Also the proportions of the ratio CH4 to N2O differs completely from NOAA's table. Where is the error?
Everybody uses different GWP ratios. See attached table and https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2781.msg245877.html#msg245877
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Richard Rathbone on January 23, 2020, 11:57:31 PM
Where is the error?

Using GWP rather than RF. GWP is for comparing emission, not concentrations.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 24, 2020, 08:07:36 AM
Cross post from Science basics-thread:
Quote from: nanning
It should be easy I think to add a column with the per-ghg CO2e figures if their atmospheric fractions are known.
For Stephan's CO2e reporting, I suggest using two factors: 30 and 90 for methane CO2e, or use above table.

Stephan, since we're most interested in the next decades in my opinion, you could just go with the high factor of 90. That'll give the best information of GHG concentrations for that period I think. It doesn't need to be exact, but just in the right ballpark.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on January 24, 2020, 09:08:00 AM
I have been thinking that it would be nice to have a thread here which tracked where we are wrt several scenarios.

So maybe we can combine the CO2e data + The Carbon Clock data in a thread where we also compare the outcomes to the RCP scenarios?

This would leave the Mona Loa Thread for the ML numbers and collect CO2e in a thread where it is directly useful.

Lets call it something like:
Where are we now in CO2e and which pathway are we on/how much budget do we have left?

Feel free to improve that title.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on January 24, 2020, 10:15:21 AM
"Remaining budget for catastrophy"

When it is apparent that the +1.5°C carbon budget is 0, will there be a new budget for +2°C? The economists require a budget and cost/benefit. What do you think will happen when the budget is gone?

I think budgets are insane: Civilisation on its death bed gasps with a last painful effort "there is still time....aarrgggh".

Were has all the drinking water gone? Is there no budget?
How much budget is there for severe weather catastrophies? Of course I mean the catastrophies for rich country white people.
How much budget left to further grow the economy?
How much pesticide-budget left before food cannot be grown because of loss of ecosystem 'services'.
How much deforestation-budget left before the loss of ROI?
How much species-budget left until complete or partial biosphere collapse? (if we're there not already)

How much budget until the rich countries have rendered the Earth unlivable/unsurvivable for large mammals?

Precautionary principle anyone? This is not sanity!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 24, 2020, 04:09:40 PM
I have been thinking that it would be nice to have a thread here which tracked where we are wrt several scenarios.

So maybe we can combine the CO2e data + The Carbon Clock data in a thread where we also compare the outcomes to the RCP scenarios?

This would leave the Mona Loa Thread for the ML numbers and collect CO2e in a thread where it is directly useful.

Lets call it something like:
Where are we now in CO2e and which pathway are we on/how much budget do we have left?

Feel free to improve that title.
Good idea, kassy. I'd also prefer to have the CO2 / CH4 / N2O / SF6 concentration threads (comparable to the ASI Extent thread - bookkeepuing type of thread) and a separate thread about CO2 eq (how to calculate and evaluate with respect to carbon budgets and RCP scenarios).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on January 24, 2020, 11:50:07 PM
I made the thread:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2994.0.html

If you repost #25 there we can continue it there.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 11:21:10 AM
Good, kassy. CO2e is the "real" number.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2020, 02:01:53 PM
No good news for 2020 from the UK Met Office - unfortunately the Met has a good record for accurate forecast.s

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/2020-global-co2-forecast
Australian bushfires help push forecast 2020 CO₂ rise
A forecast of the atmospheric concentration of carbon-dioxide shows that 2020 will witness one of the largest annual rises in concentration since measurements began at Mauna Loa, in Hawaii, 1958.
Quote
During the year the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is expected to peak above 417 parts per million in May, while the average for the year is forecast to be 414.2 ± 0.6ppm. This annual average represents a 2.74 ± 0.57 ppm rise on the average for 2019. While human-caused emissions cause the CO₂ rise in concentration, impacts of weather patterns on global ecosystems are predicted to increase the rise by 10% this year.  Emissions from the recent Australian bushfires contribute up to one-fifth of this increase.

Professor Richard Betts MBE, of the Met Office Hadley Centre and University of Exeter, said: “Although the series of annual levels of CO₂ have always seen a year-on-year increase since 1958, driven by fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the rate of rise isn’t perfectly even because there are fluctuations in the response of ecosystem carbon sinks, especially tropical forests. Overall these are expected to be weaker than normal for a second year running.”

The complete MetOffice forecast is at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecast
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 26, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 412 ppm with an extreme intra-day variability. This year it looks much smoother; I expect an annual increase around 1.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
The Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 information is available:

Week beginning on January 19, 2020:     414.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               412.19 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            388.27 ppm
Last updated: January 26, 2020

The increase is at the upper end of my outlook. From Jan 21 on the data has left the smooth increase of the last weeks, but went up and down like a yo-yo. The last three days were "unavailable" because of a high intra-day fluctuation.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of at or above 2.5 ppm is very likely. Even a 3 ppm increase is not impossible. Hard to give an exact number, because the last three days do not offer a predictable trend for the next days...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: crandles on January 28, 2020, 05:48:46 PM
Revision:
Quote
Week beginning on January 19, 2020:     413.65 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:     412.19 ppm

this is because they have filled in data for last few days:
Quote
January 27:     413.51 ppm
January 26:     412.96 ppm
January 25:     412.40 ppm
January 24:     412.73 ppm
January 23:     413.91 ppm

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on January 28, 2020, 10:13:52 PM
Thank you for that update. So the annual increase is only 1.5 ppm, now at the lower end of what I had expected the week before.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on February 02, 2020, 07:53:06 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of at or above 2.5 ppm is very likely. Even a 3 ppm increase is not impossible. Hard to give an exact number, because the last three days do not offer a predictable trend for the next days...
It is time for my Sunday evening post about the NOAA CO2 weekly average.

Week beginning on January 26, 2020:     414.09 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             389.37 ppm
Last updated: February 2, 2020

A big jump on Monday led to the upper limit of the estimation I made one week ago. The annual increase is back at 3 ppm. The intra-day and inter-day variabilities were comparably high, but all days passed NOAA's quality control.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411.7 ppm. Looking at the actual momentum of increasing values from day to day I expect another annual increase of around 3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 03, 2020, 03:10:23 PM
I calculated 413.44 ppm for January 2020 with NOAA's Mauna Loa data.  That's a growth rate of 2.61 ppm over January 2019.  12-month moving average is still above the linear & polynomial but appears to be peaking in the growth cycle.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: rboyd on February 07, 2020, 10:16:25 PM
The global CO2 numbers were updated for November 2019:
- Nov 2019 410.88 vs Nov 2018 407.99 (y-o-y difference of 2.99 ppm)

The first estimate of the 2019 global annual growth rate was also provided: 2.94 ppm.
- This will get updated when the December, January and February numbers are provided (the final number comes with the February number). Could change a lot, but the current 2019 annual increase is only 0.02 ppm below the 2015 ENSO-driven high.

I remember reading somewhere that a sustained yearly increase above 2.5ppm could mean increases in non-anthropogenic emissions/reduction in sinks are kicking in. The increase in anthropogenic emissions in the past few years is definitely not able to account for such a high number in a non-ENSO year.

Global CH4 was also provided for October: 1876.2 vs 1865.7 a year ago, an increase of 10.5ppb - running on the high end of the past few years.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on February 09, 2020, 06:52:38 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411.7 ppm. Looking at the actual momentum of increasing values from day to day I expect another annual increase of around 3 ppm.
My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 information is available:

Week beginning on February 2, 2020:     414.33 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               411.11 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            390.67 ppm
Last updated: February 9, 2020

The annual increase of 3.22 ppm is beyond my expectation of last week, and it seems that the "around 3 ppm annual increase" will accompany us for a while. All days had valid averages, and the pace of increase seems to accelerate.

Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 412.3 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into next week would lead to an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on February 11, 2020, 03:17:38 PM
Another record day: 416.08 ppm on February 11th
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on February 11, 2020, 06:18:58 PM
It was on 10 Februari. Here is a link: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on February 16, 2020, 08:29:19 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year averaged at 412.3 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into next week would lead to an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.

Surprise Surprise
This Sunday evening CO2 message does not fit into my expectations.
After having reached a maximum of more than 416 ppm early this week the CO2 concentration declined day by day.

Week beginning on February 9, 2020:     414.40 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               412.70 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           390.32 ppm
Last updated: February 16, 2020

This annual increase of only 1.7 ppm is much less than most of us expected. Yesterday that daily loss had ended.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411 ppm. Taking the actual values as a basis and expecting a slight re-increase I expect an annual increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm. I hope that I am not completely wrong...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on February 23, 2020, 08:49:17 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 411 ppm. Taking the actual values as a basis and expecting a slight re-increase I expect an annual increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm. I hope that I am not completely wrong...
My Sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is a little bit delayed tonight, because I watched the discussions and reactions after the elections in Hamburg.

Week beginning on February 16, 2020:     414.01 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 411.22 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             390.45 ppm
Last updated: February 23, 2020

I was wrong again - the decrease of last week turned into an increase this week, and the annual increase has reached 2.8 ppm again and is higher than the average increase of the last 10 years (2.4 ppm).

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 412.4 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: TerryM on February 25, 2020, 10:34:07 AM
With the shutdown of China I'd expected to see a much lower number.
The next weeks will be interesting.


Terry
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on February 25, 2020, 06:14:38 PM
Mauna Loa is sampling well mixed air.  Impacts from the virus will be so small in the current carbon cycle that any signal will probably comes months-years later.  Daily ups & downs are noisy. This noise is on top of a seasonal cycle that shifts slightly from year to year. Tack on ENSO impacts & accelerating concentration growth and any small dip could lead to confirmation bias.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on February 25, 2020, 06:54:27 PM
Great explanation wolfpack513 :)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Ken Feldman on February 26, 2020, 10:44:28 PM
NOAA now reports the daily numbers for the Globally Average signal, which shows a lot less volatility than the Mauna Loa numbers.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html)

Quote
February 25:      411.92 ppm
February 24:      411.92 ppm
February 23:      411.91 ppm
February 22:      411.90 ppm
February 21:      411.89 ppm
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 01, 2020, 04:32:18 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 412.4 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm.
I should better renounce the outlooks in future - I was wrong again  :(
This is my Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels:
Week beginning on February 23, 2020:     413.72 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 412.25 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              388.72 ppm
Last updated: March 1, 2020

The annual increase is below 1.5 ppm. The daily values decreased slightly in comparison to last week, which explains the low annual increase. However, we are in the annual cycle of increasing CO2 content until May.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.


Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 01, 2020, 05:40:11 PM
Interesting drop. Central European vegetation is starting it's spring growth and manufacturing in China is pretty down. I haven't followed the progress of northern hemisphere's spring elsewhere, might be additional reasons for this decrease in the speed of the rise.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on March 01, 2020, 06:37:18 PM
Interesting drop. Central European vegetation is starting it's spring growth and manufacturing in China is pretty down. I haven't followed the progress of northern hemisphere's spring elsewhere, might be additional reasons for this decrease in the speed of the rise.

The reason likely has nothing to do with that, it's just pure chance. It takes months for CO2 from the mainlands to mix and reach the measurement station on Hawaii.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 01, 2020, 08:53:06 PM
I'd like to present you the last 365 days of Mauna Loa CO2:
First the daily and weekly values are never so bumpy and "chaotic" than in Feb and March (see green and violet circled areas). In 2019 the up and down was even worse than in 2020. Differences of 1, 2 or even 3 ppm are possible within days and weeks. This makes the calculation of "Last year next week" so difficult - even the value I use for this in my postings is sometimes wrong.
Second there is a small, but inherent decrease between mid-late February and mid March which belongs to the annual CO2 cycle. The increase late March into April finally makes March having a slightly higher average than February. In contrast to that there are strong increases Oct → Nov → Dec → Jan and Mar → Apr → May.

Therefore I agree with grixm's explanation of "pure chance" that the annual increase last week was much below average, and it can easily be converted into a "much higher than average annual increase" within the next weeks.

See attached picture.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on March 02, 2020, 01:08:56 AM
Thanks Stephan for your efforts with this noisy data!

My hypothesis, as expected, is that the small rise in atm. CO2 is due to the fact that we now have flat emissions of fossil fuels, and probably dropping in 2020 due to the corona virus. As it was China that drove the entire increase in emissions during 2019.
World excl. China is already on a negative FF emissions path.
Peak CO2 not later than 2030 is entirely possible.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 02, 2020, 09:31:39 PM
I calculated 414.12 PPM for February 2020 at Mauna Loa using NOAA’s data.  That’s a growth rate of 2.37 ppm over February 2019. Nothing that unexpected if you follow the underlying cycle of growth rates.  The peak was October 2019 and we should see growth rates dropping off until the next bottom.

It could be all ENSO but I think there’s some sort of cycle and ENSO adds constructive or destructive interference. If we see an El Niño at the time of a typical peak you get constructive interference & the opposite if the ENSO phase and trough/peak don’t line up.  Take the bottom in 2014-2015, it was higher than the bottom in 2017-2018.  The weak El Niño in 2014 and into early 2015 was enough to elevate the trough: destructive interference.  That’s why the 2014-2015 trough was higher than 2018 bottom when you had La Niña and a trough: constructive interference.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: FrostKing70 on March 02, 2020, 11:31:52 PM
Any thoughts on how the reduced emissions from the coronavirus will impact this number?  I recognize this is not the same gas as measured, but may be a proxy?

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 03, 2020, 11:38:36 AM
Any thoughts on how the reduced emissions from the coronavirus will impact this number?
Mauna Loa is not directly downwind of Chinese factories, like said above, some mixing of air over the North Pacific has to happen before attempting to find out the effect, this is the start of spring in northern hemisphere so that should be somehow substracted off the regular curve.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: rboyd on March 05, 2020, 06:45:55 PM
Annual Global Increase In CO2 Above 3ppm First Time Ever in 2019 !

NOAA released its updated numbers for the annual 2019 increase in global atmospheric CO2, after getting the December numbers in (2 more updates for Jan and Feb 2020 before the final number is given) - and its 3.08ppm! Thats with no El Nino present, the highest number ever (in 2015 it was 2.97ppm).

NOAA also released the final Mauna Loa number and its 2.47ppm, but thats just specific to Mauna Loa. The 3.08ppm number is a global number.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html)

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html)

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on March 05, 2020, 10:28:01 PM
Wow!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 06, 2020, 12:33:51 AM
Damn , we gotta get off that crack before it kills us .
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2020, 12:57:23 AM
Damn , we gotta get off that crack before it kills us .

Bruce,

In the attached image of NOAA's Global Daily Atmospheric CO2 concentrations thru March 5, 2020, it looks to me like the readings from Barrow are trending upward this year to date.  I hope that this is a natural fluctuation as if it is a feedback trend for permafrost degradation, then we should have gotten off our collective fossil fuel/crack addiction yesterday.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 06, 2020, 07:53:29 PM
ASLR,
I am disappointed - not because of your posting, of course.
None of the lines, values and trends are linear. They all are slightly accelerating - even in a non El Niño year like 2019/20!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2020, 08:15:46 PM
ASLR,
I am disappointed - not because of your posting, of course.
None of the lines, values and trends are linear. They all are slightly accelerating - even in a non El Niño year like 2019/20!

Stephan,
Not to add too much to your disappointment, but the attached image of Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the South Pole from 2010 thru March 6, 2020; shows that 2020 (without any El Nino event) is the first year on the record where the daily CO2 concentration from January 1 to March 6, has not dropped below the trend line.  This means that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently accelerating even at the South Pole.
ASLR
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 08, 2020, 05:55:09 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
The Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 is ready to be posted:

Week beginning on March 1, 2020:     413.87 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           411.91 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        391.38 ppm
Last updated: March 8, 2020

This week the annual increase was in the predicted range.
Apart from a massive spike today the intra-day variabilities were small, and thus no value had to be excluded. The annual increase 2019 → 2020 was lower than the average annual increase over the last ten years.

Outlook:
(repeated from last week) Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 15, 2020, 06:11:02 PM
My Sunday evening posting about the Mauna Loa CO2 concentration is ready.

Week beginning on March 8, 2020:     414.11 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           412.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.27 ppm
Last updated: March 15, 2020

The annual increase is below the range I thought it would be last week. Six out of seven days had "valid" values, with only small intra-day variations.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of 411.8 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm is what I expect.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: GeoffBeacon on March 18, 2020, 07:37:00 AM
Coronavirus and atmospheric concentrations of CO2

Quote
Scripps Oceanography geochemist Ralph Keeling said fossil fuel use would have to decline by about 10 percent around the world and would need to be sustained for a year to show up clearly in carbon dioxide levels.

Quote
History has shown that carbon dioxide levels typically resume their climb quickly as normal economic activity rebounds. If there is any benefit of the coronavirus event in terms of slowing the pace of climate change, it could be the changing of people’s travel and work habits in ways that lead to sustained reductions in fossil fuel use. Only those kinds of long-term systemic reductions will change the trajectory of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, Keeling said.

What does it take for the coronavirus (or other major economic events) to affect global carbon dioxide readings? (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/2020/03/11/what-does-it-take-for-the-coronavirus-or-other-major-economic-events-to-affect-global-carbon-dioxide-readings/)

-----

However, UK emissions of CO2 have remained lower after 2007/2008 crash.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.brusselsblog.co.uk%2Fimg%2FSmallFallInConsumptionEmissions.jpg&hash=49cdebfdeadad59cbf903626f470b4bd)

UK's carbon footprint (https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uks-carbon-footprint).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 22, 2020, 10:10:54 PM
Outlook:
(repeated from last week) Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is now ready:

Week beginning on March 15, 2020:     414.28 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          391.23 ppm
Last updated: March 22, 2020

The difficulty in my "predictions" is not a good guess of the average value this week, but a poor guess about the average value last year. The values have had such a big inter-day variability between Jan and March 2019, that it is almost impossible to find the correct average. Anyway, the annual increase of 2.5 ppm is higher than in the last weeks. But it should not be over-interpreted, because of the high fluctuations last year.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 411.3 ppm, therefore an increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 seems to be likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on March 29, 2020, 01:38:42 PM
Ralph Keeling estimates that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to clearly impact CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere

...

But there was a long way from reduced use of fossil fuels to a crisis that would affect carbon dioxide concentrations in the global atmosphere.

Keeling estimated that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to show up in carbon dioxide concentrations. Even then, it would be a difference of only about 0.5 parts per million.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-hawaii-scientists-seek-signs-economic-slowdown-air/
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 29, 2020, 05:38:12 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 411.3 ppm, therefore an increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 seems to be likely.
Surprise Surprise on Sunday evening.

Week beginning on March 22, 2020:     415.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.24 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         390.77 ppm
Last updated: March 29, 2020

One of the highest annual increases I ever had to write about. This time the guess about last year was almost right, but after a stop in the beginning of this week (2-3 days) the recordings started again at around 415 ppm and increased ever since.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 412.2 ppm. An annual increase of 3.2 ± 0.3 ppm shall be expected.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: blumenkraft on March 29, 2020, 05:41:41 PM
Well, so much to the 'is it lowering the CO2' question...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 29, 2020, 09:03:02 PM
I think it is far too early to talk about a CoViD19 effect on Mauna Loa CO2 at this moment.
Two effects came into play last week:
1. The average one year ago was 0.5 ppm lower than the week before
2. The average this week has stopped for two days and re-started with a higher value, in effect 1.25 ppm higher than the week before.
Adding up 0.5+1.25 = 1.75, which is the additional value on the annual increase of 2.5 ppm from one week ago. I think it will normalize soon.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 30, 2020, 01:14:45 PM
Yea I feel like we've beat this drum a lot -- these initial weeks, months are way too early to decipher any Coronavirus impacts on CO2(a well mixed gas).  Look how noisy the data is the first 3 months of both 2019 & 2020 at Mauna Loa.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on March 30, 2020, 09:03:57 PM
Thank you wolfpack for this posting and the impressive graph.
I wonder why just the first three months of a year are so horribly noisy. Was it like that already years/decades ago?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on April 03, 2020, 01:32:51 AM
I calculated 414.50 ppm for March 2020 using NOAA Mauna Loa data. Nothing out of the ordinary — growth rate of 2.53 ppm over March 2019.  People will likely blame the growth rate drop the next 6+ months on coronavirus but we’re now post peak in the cycle.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 05, 2020, 09:10:09 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 412.2 ppm. An annual increase of 3.2 ± 0.3 ppm shall be expected.
The Sunday evening report on Mauna Loa CO2 is ready to go:
Week beginning on March 29, 2020:     415.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             412.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          391.47 ppm
Last updated: April 5, 2020

This time I got it almost right. No stop of the acceleration of CO2 so far. This could also bring the soon to be published annual increase of March close to the 3 ppm range.
Apart from Friday very stable values with almost no intra-day variations.

Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 06, 2020, 09:36:58 PM
On the 6th of each month NOAA presents the monthly average for the gases they monitor. The values for CO2 are:
March 2020:       414.50 ppm
March 2019:       411.97 ppm
Last updated: April 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.53 ppm, less than I expected yesterday.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on April 09, 2020, 10:37:52 PM
New daily record value: 416.96 ppm for April 8th
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Lewis on April 10, 2020, 02:28:38 AM
New daily record value: 416.96 ppm for April 8th

Showing 417.91

https://twitter.com/Keeling_curve?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AKeeling_curve&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fscripps.ucsd.edu%2Fprograms%2Fkeelingcurve%2F
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on April 10, 2020, 07:34:28 AM
New daily record value: 416.96 ppm for April 8th

Showing 417.91

https://twitter.com/Keeling_curve?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AKeeling_curve&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fscripps.ucsd.edu%2Fprograms%2Fkeelingcurve%2F

Interesting. I went by NOAA, that's Scripps
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 12, 2020, 05:38:02 PM
Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is ready.

Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      391.12 ppm
Last updated: April 12, 2020

Due to a very high level on Wednesday and Thursday (417.85, the highest value ever measured so far, and weekly average lower than I had estimated) the annual increase is higher than I had expected last Sunday. No CoViD19 effect visible. This brings me to my

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on April 12, 2020, 07:04:31 PM
Thank you Stephan for these weekly updates. May I ask that you add the difference from last year to your report? I know it's easily calculated but I still think it would be useful.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 12, 2020, 08:44:33 PM
Yes, oren, I can and I hope I will remember that next Sunday evening. But I do only have the monthly averages at hand, which would be sufficient IMO.
The annual increase March 2018 to March 2019 was 2.56 ppm, a tiny bit higher than March 2019 → March 2020 (2.53 ppm increase)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on April 12, 2020, 10:43:58 PM
Quote
Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
I mean the difference between these two numbers. And I think it would be nice to do so for all your weekly reports.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 12, 2020, 11:10:41 PM
This means I have to go back to my postings one year ago.
I think I can manage this, but I am not sure if I had made a regular posting every single week.
This is what I found from a posting in April 2019:
Week beginning on April 7, 2019:     413.13 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       409.46 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.50 ppm
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on April 13, 2020, 02:56:09 AM
I am sorry to cause confusion here Stephan. I mean something very simple that does not require going back to your previous posts.
Every week your make a prediction for next week's annual increase. And every week you refer to your previous prediction and say whether you were high or low. But you don't post explicitly what the resulting annual increase was. Anyone can calculate the annual increase from your numbers by subtracting your second number from your first number, but I think it would be helpful for readers to post that number explicitly.

Here is an example of your last post and what I suggest to add to it (bolded):
Feel free to take up my suggestion or ignore it... I didn't mean to burden the thread with repeated comments.


Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is ready.

Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      391.12 ppm
Last updated: April 12, 2020
Annual increase from 1 year ago:   3.78 ppm

Due to a very high level on Wednesday and Thursday (417.85, the highest value ever measured so far, and weekly average lower than I had estimated) the annual increase is higher than I had expected last Sunday. No CoViD19 effect visible. This brings me to my

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 13, 2020, 07:56:41 AM
OK I understand now what you mean. I will do so in the future.  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 19, 2020, 07:10:50 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
It's Sunday evening and the weekly update on Mauna Loa CO2 levels is ready.
Week beginning on April 12, 2020:     416.27 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.63 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       392.85 ppm
Last updated: April 19, 2020

This is an increase of 2.64 ppm. This week had a lot of intra-day and inter-day variations, including the second highest ever recorded daily value on April 16 (417.08 ppm). Nevertheless, all days had valid averages.

Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at ca. 413.8 ppm. If I extrapolate the actual trend, an annual increase of 2.9 ppm ± 0.3 is what I expect.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: TerryM on April 19, 2020, 07:38:18 PM
Thanks Stephan!


& I do like the new format. ;)
Terry
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on April 20, 2020, 03:59:02 AM
Thank you for the updates Stephan.
Just a small thing I noticed: 2.64 ppm is not in the range of 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 24, 2020, 10:12:10 PM
Hi nanning,
that is correct - but it is not too far off like I was in the weeks before.
I always try to extrapolate the latest trend of the last week into the next week, which does not always work smoothly, because there are some jumps between the days. And there is that uncertainty deriving from last year's extreme inter-day variations which make an exact assumption of the CO2 concentration of 52 weeks ago quite difficult.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on April 24, 2020, 11:34:01 PM
For a couple of years, I've been looking at the convergence of the date 4.20.20. with 420 ppm.

We missed by a little. But still I commemorated the 420 holiday appropriately.   8)

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 24, 2020, 11:43:13 PM
Thanks for the reminder !  8)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on April 26, 2020, 09:03:40 PM
Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at ca. 413.8 ppm. If I extrapolate the actual trend, an annual increase of 2.9 ppm ± 0.3 is what I expect.

It is Sunday evening and time to inform the forum about the actual Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on April 19, 2020:     415.88 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.71 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        393.25 ppm
Last updated: April 26, 2020

Due to a drop last Tuesday the CO2 concentration is lower than I had expected last Sunday. The annual increase now is 2.17 ppm, slightly below the averaged increase of the last ten years (415.88-393.25)/10 = 2.26 ppm.

Outlook: The next week of last year had an average of ca. 414.3 ppm. The actual values projected into the next week would give an annual increase of only about 1.7 ± 0.3 ppm.

In addition, NOAA presents a short information about the current lockdown caused by CoViD-19 in many countries and its influence on CO2 levels:

Can we see a change in the CO2 record because of COVID-19?
There have been many inquiries whether we can see in our CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa and elsewhere the slowdown in CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. That drop in emissions needs to be large enough to stand out from natural CO2 variability caused by how plants and soils respond to seasonal and annual variations of temperature, humidity, soil moisture, etc. These natural variations are large, and so far the "missing" emissions do not stand out, but we may see them as the year progresses.
Here is an example: If emissions are lower by 25%, then we would expect the monthly mean CO2 for March at Mauna Loa to be lower by about 0.2 ppm. When we look at many years of the difference between February and March we expect March to be higher by 0.74 ppm, but the year-to-year variability (one standard deviation) of the difference is 0.40 ppm. This year the difference is 0.40 ppm, or 0.33 below average, but last year it was 0.52 ppm below average.

Most of the emissions come from urban areas, so that it may be easier to see the effect downwind of cities, although also in that case they need to stand out from natural variations. Only measurements of carbon-14 in CO2 would enable us to cleanly separate fossil sources of CO2 from ecosystem sources and sinks regardless of how variable the latter are.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on May 03, 2020, 04:18:30 AM
Daily CO2 at Mauna Loa was 418.03 today. Is that a daily record?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 03, 2020, 05:24:43 AM
It'll be interesting to see how much the pandemic effects this one. And the global value. Anyway it shouldn't be seen until late summer, as the annual curve mostly hides the human effect. I don't remember it properly anymore but when I looked into these figures it took something like two months to filter out some of the natural variation. So in my opinion it'll be at least early July when some rather reliable results of the effect of lockdowns are seen.

Of course there likely already are some local effects but how to catch them on the numbers round the globe? Two months for Global effects I say, maybe the observations included in the analysis could start from the period of starts of the wider lockdowns (Germany, France, Britain, India, parts of the Democratic States of America etc. So maybe already in June.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 03, 2020, 07:42:39 PM
Outlook: The next week of last year had an average of ca. 414.3 ppm. The actual values projected into the next week would give an annual increase of only about 1.7 ± 0.3 ppm.
Sunday evening - time for the weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average.

Week beginning on April 19, 2020:     415.88 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.71 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       393.25 ppm
Last updated: May 2, 2020


The annual increase of 2.17 ppm is a little bit higher than I had expected last Sunday and at the same level than last week. This value is also slightly lower than the 10 years average.
This week saw a change of the trend. Until Apr 28 the values dropped day by day, after April 29 the climbed rapidly. As phoenix posted today, it was the highest ever measured daily average at Mauna Loa.

Outlook:
The first week of May 2019 averaged at 414.3 ppm. I guess the actual peak will flatten out. We should expect an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: bosbas on May 03, 2020, 10:20:20 PM
Stephan, the data has not been updated for the current week; your numbers are identical to last weeks post. We have to wait for the figures for the week starting April 26th.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 04, 2020, 10:50:34 PM
bosbas,
thank you for this comment. I really didn't realize that the data was more than one week old - relying only on the updated date (May 2, 2020) is not enough ???.
Nevertheless, here are the actual values:

Week beginning on April 26, 2020:     416.82 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             414.45 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     393.18 ppm
Last updated: May 4, 2020

The annual increase of 2.37 ppm is a bit higher than last week, and very close to the average of the last 10 years (2.366 ppm).

May 3 saw a new daily record (418.12 ppm) since measurements started in 1958. A flattening of this peak should nevertheless be expected, therefore I stay with my

Outlook:
The first week of May 2019 averaged at 414.3 ppm. I guess the actual peak will flatten out. We should expect an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on May 05, 2020, 04:40:44 AM
Hi Stephan,

The error margins of your expectations are too small because often the next weeks' value doesn't fall in that range. I wouldn't mind if you would leave out the expectation altogether but others seem much into short-term guesses and forecasts and bets. But I like the weekly data!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 05, 2020, 06:31:18 AM
Hi Stephan,

The error margins of your expectations are too small because often the next weeks' value doesn't fall in that range. I wouldn't mind if you would leave out the expectation altogether but others seem much into short-term guesses and forecasts and bets. But I like the weekly data!

At Mauns Loa and almodt all places elsewhere too, the weekly values depend much on weather. Various air masses carry slightly different amounts of CO2 and other ghgs, so accurate predictions should take this into account. For example, in spring time the most CO2 is seen in the Arctic/subarctic air masses and if Mauna Loa gets winds from north the expected values are often, even mostly over the average values. Later in the summer the difference isn't that big.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on May 05, 2020, 07:35:03 AM
I like the expectations because, successful or not, they help show the uncertainty.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 05, 2020, 10:23:19 PM
It is the fifth of the new month and so the average values of the "NOAA gases" are available.
Here is the value of CO2:

April 2020:       416.21 ppm
April 2019:       413.33 ppm
Last updated: May 5, 2020

The annual increase is 2.89 ppm, a bit smaller than in April 2019 and much smaller than in April 2016, but higher than most of the other Aprils in my spreadsheet.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 05, 2020, 10:46:07 PM
I plotted the annual increases of Mauna Loa CO2 from the monthly values from 1959 to 2020.
The best fit for the data is a linear one. Of course the data is noisy. Some years have seen a slow CO2 increase, others (like 2016) had rapidly increasing values. In the long run there is a steady increase of the annual increase. Please keep in mind that this is an increase in slope, which means acceleration.
I do not see any sign for a hiatus or a turn around - I'd like to be able to report such an event...

See attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 06, 2020, 02:19:08 PM
NOAA's April Mauna Loa CO2 data was released: 416.21 ppm.  That's an increase of 2.88 ppm over April 2019.

April 2020's annual growth was higher than any of the previous 6 months & also higher than the running 12-month trailing average as well as the long-term linear average.

My next project is to detrend this dataset(subtract the linear regression from each month). Once detrended measure ENSO peaks to peaks & troughs to troughs trends: weak El Niño to weak El Niño, moderate La Niña to moderate La Niña and so forth for all strengths and flavors. I may even assign a lag of 2-4 months too account for the delay.

This should tease out acceleration better and see how much ENSO impacts these numbers. 
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: dnem on May 06, 2020, 03:57:28 PM
Tamino has done this sort of analysis, FYI:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/01/20/is-co2-still-accelerating/
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 06, 2020, 10:44:51 PM
Repeating the note I've made several times over the years. It's not surprising the CO2 keeps on rising in the spring, it is the high point of anthropogenic CO2  in the atmosphere. Once the plants have woken up from their hibernation they likely notice there's more of the stuff and adjust accordingly. Any anthropogenic decrease in CO2 production should thus be easiest to see in late summer-autumn numbers, once the natural cycle is changing it's direction.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 07, 2020, 06:25:58 PM
I do not agree with that statement as the annual increase rate strictly excludes seasonal aspects, assuming every growing season is comparable to earlier ones, which is not perfectly true, of course.
If there is a significant reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, it should be visible independent of the time of the year it happens. Of course the Mauna Loa CO2 levels do not react on a day-to-day basis on such changes, a delay of the CoViD19-related reduction should be expected and is probably occurring very slightly and not abruptly.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 07, 2020, 07:17:54 PM
Repeating the note I've made several times over the years. It's not surprising the CO2 keeps on rising in the spring, it is the high point of anthropogenic CO2  in the atmosphere. Once the plants have woken up from their hibernation they likely notice there's more of the stuff and adjust accordingly. Any anthropogenic decrease in CO2 production should thus be easiest to see in late summer-autumn numbers, once the natural cycle is changing it's direction.

That's why I have a trailing 12-month average on my graph.  It smooths or removes the seasonal cycle.  Once you remove the seasonal cycle the rest of the variability is mostly ENSO.  The small changes from global economic ups and downs has an incredibly small impact of concentration time-series.  You can see dips on emissions charts but the impact is incredibly small on concentration time-series.  Something people confuse quite often.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 07, 2020, 08:59:49 PM
I also refer to my post # 93 from last week. I added to my weekly Sunday evening Mauna Loa posting a statement of NOAA concerning the answer to a FAQ concerning the consequences of the CoViD19-related lockdown on the global CO2 levels.
It is worth a read.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2020, 10:54:18 PM
One must not forget that the increase in CO2 ppm also depends on the land and ocean sinks, which are in long-term decline due to amongst many other things,
- other human activities such as deforestation in the Amazon turning parts of the Amazon from net CO2 sinks into net CO2 emitters,
- winter CO2 emissions from the Permafrost regions (AGW x polar amplification),
- well-documented decline in the CO2 sinks in the Southern ocean,
- general reduction in ocean sinks as excessive CO2 being dissolved increases ocean acidity.

A one-year reduction in CO2 emissions is perhaps of not great significance - to consider it as more than a welcome blip is to grasp at straws?

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on May 08, 2020, 03:15:44 AM
Quote from: gerontocrat
- winter CO2 emissions from the Permafrost regions (AGW x polar amplification),

Dear gerontocrat,
Are you sure you don't mean summer CO₂ emissions from the permafrost regions? Perhaps I'm missing something.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on May 08, 2020, 03:26:52 AM

A one-year reduction in CO2 emissions is perhaps of not great significance - to consider it as more than a welcome blip is to grasp at straws?

Agree 100%. The potential value of the Covid related decline is if people step back and realize how little it means in the big scheme of things and grasp that we need a more comprehensive approach.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on May 08, 2020, 05:13:13 AM
The Covid signal can be discussed here so this thread can focus on Mauna Loa Co2 levels:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3078.0.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on May 08, 2020, 03:37:18 PM
Quote from: gerontocrat
- winter CO2 emissions from the Permafrost regions (AGW x polar amplification),

Dear gerontocrat,
Are you sure you don't mean summer CO₂ emissions from the permafrost regions? Perhaps I'm missing something.
The permafrost regions are greening - i.e. absorbing more CO2.
A recent study showed that additional winter CO2 emissions outweighed the additional summer CO2 capture.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 10, 2020, 06:27:27 PM
It is Sunday evening and time for my weekly update of Mauns Loa CO2 levels. But - there are no new weekly averages available tonight. I return to this point as soon as I can share the data with you.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 12, 2020, 04:11:35 PM
I de-trended NOAA's Mauna Loa C02 growth rates.  Included are Niño 3.4 monthly anomalies.  Niño indexes are already de-trended(3.4 uses a moving centered baseline). To smooth both I placed a 7-month trailing average.  I chose 7 months because the minimum criteria for La Niña or El Niño is 5 tri-monthlies(ONIs) or roughly 7 months.

Once you account for the 3-5 month lag of ENSO to CO2 concentration impacts, the residuals or variability in growth rates is nearly all ENSO.  I do need to adjust the quadratic used for de-trending Mauna Loa because the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño has the same amplitude as weak El Niños later in the time series.  A sign that acceleration in growth rates has picked up.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 12, 2020, 06:59:14 PM
Outlook:
The first week of May 2019 averaged at 414.3 ppm. I guess the actual peak will flatten out. We should expect an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
The latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 is available:

Week beginning on May 3, 2020:     416.83 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        414.11 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     392.98 ppm
Last updated: May 12, 2020

The annual increase is 2.72 ppm, almost exactly in the expected range. The 10 year average is lower (2.38 ppm) than this week's increase.
This week saw high intra-day, but low inter-day variations. It seems that we are close to the maximum. The highest daily average was probably reached on May 3rd (418.1 ppm). It seens unlikely that the border of 420 ppm can be achieved this season. But 2021 will definitively go beyond that benchmark.

Outlook:
Last year next week was at 415.3 ppm, the maximum for 2019. I expect an annual increase of 2.0 ± 0.25 ppm, which would represent the highest weekly average for this year.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on May 12, 2020, 10:09:37 PM
...  I do need to adjust the quadratic used for de-trending Mauna Loa because the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño has the same amplitude as weak El Niños later in the time series.  A sign that acceleration in growth rates has picked up.

Thanks, wolfpack!

You say that the "acceleration in growth rates has picked up."
I don't see any such acceleration in the chart? To me, it looks like a deceleration, a slight negative trend in CO2 growth, ie. the blue curve.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 13, 2020, 08:48:31 AM
...  I do need to adjust the quadratic used for de-trending Mauna Loa because the 2009-2010 moderate El Niño has the same amplitude as weak El Niños later in the time series.  A sign that acceleration in growth rates has picked up.

Thanks, wolfpack!

You say that the "acceleration in growth rates has picked up."
I don't see any such acceleration in the chart? To me, it looks like a deceleration, a slight negative trend in CO2 growth, ie. the blue curve.

No, it’s de-trended.  Therefore the slope is flat.  However, the quadratic I used wasn’t perfect so the blue line could be adjusted some.  Any *short term* trend that you’re seeing is mostly ENSO. Of course after the super El Niño of 2015-2016 and nearly moderate El Niño of 2018-2019 your eyes see a negative trend.   Kind of my point.  Making any big declaration month to month or even year to year because growth rates went up or down is usually just ENSO.  Changes in emissions, including this year will be very small to detect but do have an impact in the longrun. 
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 13, 2020, 12:36:43 PM
Detrending the anthropogenic signal out is of course a way to look for other (than ENSO) natural sources and sinks. Siberian 'relative' heat last winter might be an intersting phenomenon to study, was there a large outflux of CO2 and CH4 just as the winter set in? This could be in permafrost thread though.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 13, 2020, 05:52:09 PM
The internal variability is still mostly ENSO and that's the problem! We like to think that the 2008-2009 global financial crisis or corona-virus will make a big impact on *concentration* but it's tiny compared to where we need to be globally. Cumulative gas in the atmosphere doesn't care about your occasional emissions drop because the pie just keeps getting bigger. 

At the time it was a big deal when global emissions dropped ~0.50 GT from 2008 to 2009. That's a little less than a 2% drop in emissions.  Now compared that to ENSO which is responsible for plus or minus 2 ppm in growth rates variability: strong El Niño to strong La Niña.  You're working in different magnitudes.  Now if emissions were dropping 2% annually that would start to show up after some time.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 13, 2020, 08:15:45 PM
Fit a function to flatten the ENSO curve. Optimize the hell out of it, use what ever ENSO index flattens the bumps best... Try out adding a function for IOD. (This is where it gets really tricky) Stop as you do not anymore know what's signal and what is fitting the curve, or, this is how it happened to me a while back, I used the global weekly values of CO2 though. The slight variations round the globe flatten out some of the location-specific oddities. (In Mauns Loa I'd guess a derivation of an ENSO-index should be used as the hottest ocean waters pass the site not in sync with the general enso. This is Hard stuff, doctorate level some 20 years back, I'm pretty sure, maybe even nowadays on some subjects.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on May 14, 2020, 12:45:55 AM
Another thing that needs to be normalized or de-trended some is the fact that ENSO has been dis-proportionally warm phase the last 10 years.  The Niño index is already de-trended but depending on endpoints can influence the trend.  We all remember "no global warming since 1998."
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 14, 2020, 08:59:14 PM
Another thing that needs to be normalized or de-trended some is the fact that ENSO has been dis-proportionally warm phase the last 10 years.  The Niño index is already de-trended but depending on endpoints can influence the trend.  We all remember "no global warming since 1998."

This is a real problem, we can't very well be sure what a stable climate El Nino looks like, so we can't easily say this change in El Nino is from Global Warming and this sort is regular behavior. Climate models give a clue, but a spontaneous development of an ENSO cycle is not easily achieved, I believe. But some models get those.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 17, 2020, 05:36:08 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week was at 415.3 ppm, the maximum for 2019. I expect an annual increase of 2.0 ± 0.25 ppm, which would represent the highest weekly average for this year.

The Sunday evening posting series on Mauna Loa CO2 levels is back again.

Week beginning on May 10, 2020:     416.79 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          415.31 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       392.68 ppm
Last updated: May 17, 2020

The annual increase reduced markedly to just 1.48 ppm. The maximum for 2020 has passed, one week earlier than last year, which explains my "not so good" guess from last week. It is also much lower in comparison with the last ten years (average annual increase 2.41 ppm). This also makes it clear that the benchmark of 420 ppm has not been reached, not even in an hourly average.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of 414.8 ppm. Taking into account the actual downsloping curve I wouldn't be surprised if the annual increase goes even further down than this week.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 24, 2020, 04:55:08 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of 414.8 ppm. Taking into account the actual downsloping curve I wouldn't be surprised if the annual increase goes even further down than this week.
It is time for the weekly Mauna Loa CO2 posting.
It comes as a surprise, but two weeks ago was not the weekly maximum, this week is slightly higher. We have a broad maximum this year. Therefore the annual increase has risen to 2.25 ppm, the ten year average increase is 2.35 ppm. The values:
Week beginning on May 17, 2020:     416.97 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          414.72 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      393.46 ppm
Last updated: May 24, 2020

Apart from yesterday ("unavailable") the whole week had constant CO2 values with a very small intra-day variability.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 414.2 ppm. When the plateau that has been reached now still holds on, then the annual increase can even move up a little further. It is impossible to say on which date finally the annual cycle with decreasing daily values will have its onset.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on May 27, 2020, 06:28:05 PM
Perhaps the max has still not arrived. So far this week the average is not far from 418 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 27, 2020, 09:31:56 PM
...and May 25th with 418.1 ppm, tied with May 3rd, 2020, which was the highest daily average value ever measured so far. So we have two maxima this season?
Anyway, with the average of 414.2 ppm last year, we are heading towards an annual increase of above 2.5 ppm, unless a downward trend begins.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on May 27, 2020, 10:31:48 PM
Perhaps the max has still not arrived. So far this week the average is not far from 418 ppm.

Looking back over recent years, it seems the CO2 numbers have tended to peak around May 15. The jump at this point in the calendar is concerning.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 27, 2020, 10:51:19 PM
I wouldn't put too much emphasis in this fact. The day-to-day variation is larger than the almost flat long-year trend mid to end May. But the downward trend should proceed from mid June on. Until then anything is possible, even a slightly higher value than on May 3 or 25.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on May 27, 2020, 11:02:52 PM
I wouldn't put too much emphasis in this fact. The day-to-day variation is larger than the almost flat long-year trend mid to end May. But the downward trend should proceed from mid June on. Until then anything is possible, even a slightly higher value than on May 3 or 25.


Thanks. post 127 above refers to a weekly average which was a reason behind my interest. How many days did that represent?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 28, 2020, 05:37:42 PM
I think, grixm's post referred to my posting 126, in which I was surprised of the re-increase of CO2 values the week before.
Posting 126 (as all other of my Sunday evening CO2 postings) refer to the NOAA website, on which CO2 average concentrations and its annual increase for the just passed week are published. So each individual annual increase I report contains the weekly values. Once a month (on the 5th) NOAA publishes the monthly averages. I report this in an extra posting.
Link to NOAA: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on May 31, 2020, 05:19:04 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 414.2 ppm. When the plateau that has been reached now still holds on, then the annual increase can even move up a little further. It is impossible to say on which date finally the annual cycle with decreasing daily values will have its onset.
Sunday evening, and it's time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.
I guess the peak has now arrived. This should be the week with the highest average in 2020. The last two days saw a real decline with very little intra-day variations (that was not the case two weeks ago).
Week beginning on May 24, 2020:     417.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         414.40 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      392.63 ppm
Last updated: May 31, 2020
This results in an annual increase of just a little bit more than 3 ppm. The last 10 years' average increase is 2.48 ppm.

Outlook:
I bet that the annual cyclic downslope has started now. Last year next week saw an average of 414.3 ppm. So the annual average increase should be smaller, about 2.4 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on June 02, 2020, 09:31:45 AM
Not sure where this belongs, but here's a link to a new study that makes the case that today's CO2 levels haven't been observed in 23 million years.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-06/gsoa-sst060120.php

The team used the fossilized remains of ancient plant tissues to produce a new record of atmospheric CO2 that spans 23 million years of uninterrupted Earth history. They have shown elsewhere that as plants grow, the relative amount of the two stable isotopes of carbon, carbon-12 and carbon-13 changes in response to the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 02, 2020, 04:07:15 PM
I calculated 417.03 ppm for May 2020. This is roughly a growth rate of 2.4 ppm over May 2019.  Average done with a total of 26 daily NOAA readings. 

Once you de-trend Mauna Loa and offset for the 5-month ENSO lag, we're right where you would expect to be for growth rates.  May's growth rate reflects December 2019 ENSO conditions. 

I chose a trailing 7-month average to capture 5 ONIs(tri-monthlies).  2019-2020's weak El Niño for example: OND to FMA or October to April: 7 months.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: grixm on June 03, 2020, 12:02:21 PM
We got a new daily record of 418.32 ppm for June 1st
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 04, 2020, 07:53:49 AM
I calculated 417.03 ppm for May 2020. This is roughly a growth rate of 2.4 ppm over May 2019.  Average done with a total of 26 daily NOAA readings. 

Once you de-trend Mauna Loa and offset for the 5-month ENSO lag, we're right where you would expect to be for growth rates.  May's growth rate reflects December 2019 ENSO conditions. 

I chose a trailing 7-month average to capture 5 ONIs(tri-monthlies).  2019-2020's weak El Niño for example: OND to FMA or October to April: 7 months.
Enso corrected trend found, i think. You're obviously in this for a long haul. I'm not sure how to proceed from this. But looking good.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Phoenix on June 04, 2020, 08:25:46 AM
We got a new daily record of 418.32 ppm for June 1st

I understand that there is a lot of volatility in the daily result and no single day s/b cause for concern so someone shouldn't get concerned about this late season high in and of itself.

That said, what is the threshold at which people might become reasonably concerned about a longer "growing season" for CO2 ??

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 05, 2020, 09:18:10 PM
The average value of Mauna Loa CO2 for May 2020 is available.

May 2020:       417.07 ppm
May 2019:       414.65 ppm
Last updated: June 5, 2020

The annual increase is 2.42 ppm. This is roughly close to the average increase of the last 10 years.

I set the average of 1980 [338.75 ppm] as index=100. May 2020 is at 123.12 according to this index.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: rboyd on June 05, 2020, 09:41:22 PM
Stephan,

This page provides the annual growth rates of atmospheric CO2 for Mauna Loa:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html)

The average is 2.424, but this includes the large outliers of 2015 and 2016 due to the large El Nino of those years.

2010: 2.32; 2011: 1.92; 2012: 2.61; 2013: 2.01; 2014: 2.19; 2015: 2.99; 2016: 2.99;
2017: 1.89; 2018: 2.86; 2019: 2.46.

We dropped into a small La Nina configuration in May (shout out to Phoenix on the 2020 ENSO thread)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/)
This may affect Mauna Loa more immediately than the global numbers given the Hawaii location.
So the current value is surprisingly high as La Ninas are associated with more oceanic CO2 and heat uptake than El Ninos.
The May numbers may also have some small negative effect from the global shutdowns that have reduced anthropogenic CO2 emissions.

The global number for March 2020 (reporting 2 months behind the Mauna Loa numbers) is 413.67 versus 410.61 a year previously - a 3.06ppm year over year rise. This is higher than any previous yearly average number, including the El Nino years. January was 2.63 and February was 3.13.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 05, 2020, 09:58:58 PM
rboyd,
of course it is important to set the annual increases into context with [global] weather and current patterns. With definitively no El Niño in 2020 the increase rate is far too big to be acceptable. But it is above my pay grade to interprete the values. My intention was simply to present the actual numbers and compare the increase rates with those of the last decade(s).
I did so as well for the other "NOAA gases" (see the posts in the individual threads).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 06, 2020, 08:40:20 PM
Quote
With definitively no El Niño in 2020 the increase rate is far too big to be acceptable.

So if we did have an El Nino in 2020 the increase rate would be acceptable?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on June 06, 2020, 09:00:15 PM
Acceptable as in an expected outcome of conditions. He is clearly responding to:

So the current value is surprisingly high as La Ninas are associated with more oceanic CO2 and heat uptake than El Ninos.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 07, 2020, 07:04:00 PM
Outlook:
I bet that the annual cyclic downslope has started now. Last year next week saw an average of 414.3 ppm. So the annual increase should be smaller, about 2.4 ppm.

Sunday evening = update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

This week saw the highest ever measured value (418.32 ppm see grixm's post this week). Since then the values were decreasing to what has been obeserved at the end of last week. This four days spike increased the weekly average.
Week beginning on May 31, 2020:     417.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          414.28 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      393.28 ppm
Last updated: June 7, 2020

The annual increase has therefore risen to 2.92 ppm, higher than expected and higher than the 10 year average increase (2.40 ppm). Nevertheless this week has not been the highest in this season (see my post from May 31).

Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 414.1 ppm. With the latest values of this week the increase should reduce to about 2.4 ppm. The first half June is usually flat, the decrease to the annual minimum starts about the fourth week of June.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 07, 2020, 07:04:20 PM
A couple of things.  We mostly certain did have ENSO impacts through ~March.  You think of El Niño too much in a binary view: Niño 3.4(which did hit ONI criteria BTW).  2019-2020 warm water was displaced east of the warm pool creating an ocean-atmospheric teleconnection.  Clearly seen on VPs as well as increased global AAM.  Look at my chart above in the previous post.  detrended and lagged Mauna Loa fits perfectly with our low end El Niño.

You think that this is the first May where SSTs turned cold?  This happens in nearly every warm ENSO cycle.  slosh model: El Niños kill themselves because eventually an upwelling wave forms in response. These cooler waters won’t be seen for months in the CO2 data.  You guys often forget that Mauna Loa is used for a reason. At 11,000 ft it separated from the boundary layer atmosphere due to a nearly continuous strong marine inversion. Mauna Loa is measuring well mixed (globally)gases with little local impacts. 

rboyd,
of course it is important to set the annual increases into context with [global] weather and current patterns. With definitively no El Niño in 2020 the increase rate is far too big to be acceptable. But it is above my pay grade to interprete the values. My intention was simply to present the actual numbers and compare the increase rates with those of the last decade(s).
I did so as well for the other "NOAA gases" (see the posts in the individual threads).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 14, 2020, 05:41:36 PM
Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 414.1 ppm. With the latest values of this week the increase should reduce to about 2.4 ppm. The first half June is usually flat, the decrease to the annual minimum starts about the fourth week of June.

Another Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 concentrations.

Week beginning on June 7, 2020:     416.34 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         414.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     392.70 ppm
Last updated: June 14, 2020

The annual increase has significantly reduced (1.95 ppm) and is now again below the 10y average (2.36 ppm). From Wednesday on the intra- and inter-day variability is low. Before there was a huge fluctuation, one day was out of the quality gates of NOAA.
I also guess that there will be no further daily maximum this season. We are slowly in the downward trend.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average value of 414.1 ppm. Extrapolating the actual trend into the next week I expect an annual increase of about 2.2 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on June 15, 2020, 03:18:33 PM
I made a mistake in my de-trending chart above.  I didn't de-trend ENSO before de-trending Mauna Loa. If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero. 

I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007. 
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on June 17, 2020, 10:45:03 PM
I made a mistake in my de-trending chart above.  I didn't de-trend ENSO before de-trending Mauna Loa. If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero. 

I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007.

Thanks, Wolfie.
Two musings related to "anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year".

1. Clearly, we are not having exponential growth anymore, we're on a linear growth path.

2. What if ENSO has an anthropogenic component? Frequency, amplitudes, durations...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 20, 2020, 06:09:25 PM
1. Clearly, we are not having exponential growth anymore, we're on a linear growth path.
I do not agree. The rates are slightly increasing. The later you look the steeper is the slope.

I averaged 100-month increase rates of Mauna Loa CO2:

1959-1967: + 0.77 ppm/year
1967-1975: + 1.10 ppm/year
1975-1984: + 1.50 ppm/year
1984-1992: + 1.52 ppm/year
1992-2000: + 1.59 ppm/year
2000-2009: + 1.99 ppm/year
2009-2017: + 2.34 ppm/year
2012-2020: + 2.48 ppm/year

These data are not compatible with "linear growth path".

See also the annual increase (raw data) in the attached graph. y-axis: increase in ppm/year
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: KiwiGriff on June 20, 2020, 10:56:59 PM
Less acceleration is not equal to no acceleration .
Quote
After a rapid increase in global emissions of around 3% per year between 2000 and 2013, emissions only grew by 0.4% per year between 2013 and 2016. This was reversed over the last two years, with emissions growing by 1.6% in 2017 and expected to grow in 2018 by 2.7% (with an uncertainty range of between 1.8% and 3.7%).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years
As long as human CO2 emissions continue to increase by a positive percentage  per year the keeling curve  must continue to follow a curve.
We will see a fall in emissions due to Covid just as happened after the GFC .
This Blip is not going to have a long term effect on our trajectory.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on June 21, 2020, 04:23:08 AM
1. Clearly, we are not having exponential growth anymore, we're on a linear growth path.
I do not agree. The rates are slightly increasing. The later you look the steeper is the slope.

I averaged 100-month increase rates of Mauna Loa CO2:

1959-1967: + 0.77 ppm/year
1967-1975: + 1.10 ppm/year
1975-1984: + 1.50 ppm/year
1984-1992: + 1.52 ppm/year
1992-2000: + 1.59 ppm/year
2000-2009: + 1.99 ppm/year
2009-2017: + 2.34 ppm/year
2012-2020: + 2.48 ppm/year

These data are not compatible with "linear growth path".

See also the annual increase (raw data) in the attached graph. y-axis: increase in ppm/year

True, but I was looking at Wolfie's detrended /ENSO scrubbed data, and they do show that we have an almost constant growth rate:
2011-2018  2.39
2013-2020  2.40

This would be significant, if correct :)

After all, we do expect CO2 to grow exponentially if temperatures are to rise linearly, as there is a logarithmic relationship between radiative forcing (which is directly proportional to the change in surface temperature at equilibrium) and the atmospheric CO2 increase.
This logarithmic relationship means that each doubling of atmospheric CO2 will cause the same amount of warming at the Earth's surface.
Thus, a linear increase in CO2 means we will have the inverse relationship. In the graph, temperatures will increase, but with decreasing amounts. (the green curve instead of the black one)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 21, 2020, 08:36:10 AM
So, let's widen our attention to the radiative forcing increase since 1980
(using the "NOAA gases" CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6).
The increase in radiative forcing, using 100-months averages were:
1980-1988: + 0.0319 W/m² per year
1986-1995: + 0.0271 W/m² per year
1995-2003: + 0.0309 W/m² per year
2003-2011: + 0.0321 W/m² per year
2011-2019: + 0.0388 W/m² per year.

All these values include the square-root relation between concentration and radiative forcing that you correctly mentioned.

I do not see a flattening, but, in contrast, a steady increase of the rates. This is equivalent to an acceleration.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: oren on June 21, 2020, 02:08:03 PM
Thank you Stephan for dispelling wrong information.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 21, 2020, 02:25:41 PM
But at first it dropped. Why is that?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: interstitial on June 21, 2020, 04:36:05 PM
helfaistos
2011-2018
2013-2020
That is a 5 year overlap of a 7 year period for the first and 6 1/2 year period on the second. Most data is going to have a similar growth rate when you pick data like that.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on June 21, 2020, 06:22:25 PM
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 21, 2020, 07:14:12 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average value of 414.1 ppm. Extrapolating the actual trend into the next week I expect an annual increase of about 2.2 ppm.

Let's go back to the actual data. It is Sunday evening here in Germany and the latest Mauna Loa CO2 values are available.

Week beginning on June 14, 2020:     416.42 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          413.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.79 ppm
Last updated: June 21, 2020

The annual increase was 2.65 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 year average of 2.46 ppm.
Since June 14 the intra-day variations were large, since June 19 no daily averages were possible.
Therefore it is too speculative to give any useful outlook.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: bluice on June 21, 2020, 07:48:25 PM
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Yep. In an alternate history we could have spent the peace dividend to combat climate change. This was definitely on the table in the early nineties. But instead we went after Big Oil and cheap consumer goods from emerging China.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: jens on June 22, 2020, 08:26:12 AM
I fully expect the economic growth to slow down from now onwards and go into permanent recession, as the world situation is already so bad that capitalists simply can't keep the system running in the old ways. But I wonder whether despite that the rising CO2 levels won't be slowing down, because whatever will be missing from economic CO2 output, would be replaced by already activated climate tipping points?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on June 22, 2020, 09:58:11 AM
Discussions more general the Mauna Loa CO2 can be had in this thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2994.0.html

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on June 24, 2020, 01:18:12 PM
Three posts on methane moved to #116 here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2994.msg270152.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on June 28, 2020, 04:45:18 PM
It is Sunday evening and I'd like to post the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on June 21, 2020:     416.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.44 ppm
Last updated: June 28, 2020

The annual increase of 2.55 ppm is very close to the 10 year average (2.56 ppm/a). The values have slightly decreased during this week. In the last days the intra-day variability (which had been extreme end of second last week) has come down to average values.

Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 05, 2020, 07:56:43 PM
Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.
Week beginning on June 28, 2020:     415.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.14 ppm
Last updated: July 5, 2020

The annual increase is now at 2.05 ppm. The 10-year average annual increase is 2.43 ppm. The daily values decreased smoothly and remarkably stable without too many fluctuations.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 06, 2020, 09:20:50 PM
It is the sixth of the new month. Therefore the monthly averages of the "NOAA gases" are available. Here is the value of CO2:

June 2020:       416.39 ppm
June 2019:       413.93 ppm
Last updated: July 6, 2020

This is an annual increase of 2.46 ppm. This increase is just at the long-term linear trend line [using values from 1959-2020] of increasing rates (calculated for June the annual increase should be at 2.45 ppm).

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [338.75 ppm]. June 2020 is at 122.9 compared to that index. This index value is higher than that of CH4 and N2O (see values in the individual threads).
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 07, 2020, 10:15:46 AM
As Stephan mentioned, nothing out of the ordinary in June 2020's growth rate of 2.46 ppm.

With the 5-month lag, June 2020 lines up well well with January's ENSO level.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 07, 2020, 11:05:18 AM
is it so, that effects of CoViD-19 induced diminishing and cessation of human activities could then be seen in the numbers for next month? I've been assuming the plants react to the CO2 amounts in spring and attempt to take as much advantage they can from higher numbers. This could then be seen in late season growth amounts.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 07, 2020, 08:50:40 PM
I invite you to read NOAA's statement about this "Most Frequently Asked Question" in these days:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/covid2.html
Short summary:
The lockdown's effect on CO2 emissions is too small and too short-lived (many countries including most of Europe have already re-turned into a state close to before the lockdown). The "missing" CO2 is too little to be recognizeable in the natural fluctuation. And it is too early to be statistifically significant. Maybe next year we can draw valid conclusions from the effect of CoViD-19 on atmospheric CO2.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on July 08, 2020, 02:17:46 PM
Yea too small to be seen.  I removed the anthropogenic trend in my chart above(*ENSO influence remains).  Inter-annual concentration growth variability, largely ENSO driven is 1 to 2 magnitudes higher than year-over-year 5 to 8% global emissions drop. 

Look at the growth variability from 2016 to 2018: about 2 ppm.  The drop in emissions and resulting impact on concentration and growth rates will be nearly undetectable without sophisticated filters/regression analysis.  You have to look at decades of data to tease out anthropogenic effects on concentration.  Don't confuse emissions & concentration.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 12, 2020, 06:24:09 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...

It is Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on July 5, 2020:     415.24 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        412.12 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.39 ppm
Last updated: July 12, 2020

The cyclic drop of CO2 has not started yet, therefore the annual increase is 3.12 ppm. The 10-year annual increase is 2.48 ppm. At the moment there is no sign for a start of this drop.

Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 19, 2020, 06:35:00 PM
Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.

It is Sunday evening, therefore time for my actual CO2 posting from Mauna Loa.

The cyclic decrease that is delayed this year may have started on July 17. Next week we will be able to evaluate that.

Week beginning on July 12, 2020:     414.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             412.40 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.83 ppm
Last updated: July 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.13 ppm, lower than the 10-y-average (2.47 ppm). The extraordinary low value from July 13 lowered that annual increase.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.


Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on July 26, 2020, 08:39:16 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.

It is Sunday evening, and the actual Mauna Loa CO2 values are available:
Week beginning on July 19, 2020:     413.90 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          411.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       390.21 ppm
Last updated: July 26, 2020

The annual increase is back above the long-term trend. The CO2 concentrations rose by 2.58 ppm, the 10 y average increase is 2.37 ppm.
This week showed stable slightly falling levels as expected for this time of the year, followed by a more wobbly up and down (intraday).

Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 02, 2020, 05:57:23 PM
Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.

Sunday evening, the latest CO2 values from NOAA - Mauna Loa are available.

Week beginning on July 26, 2020:     413.22 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          409.97 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      389.75 ppm
Last updated: August 2, 2020

The annual increase is above 3 ppm, exactly at 3.25 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is 2.35 ppm.
The last week showed very stable values, slightly decreasing, and on July 31st a massive drop and very bumpy hourly values. Without that day the annual increase would have even been higher.

Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on August 05, 2020, 07:57:06 PM
July 2020 was up 2.64 ppm over July 2019 on NOAA data for Mauna Loa.  Nothing unexpected.  We’re nearing the end of the effects from the weak Niño/warm ENSO lag from this past winter.   
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 06, 2020, 07:39:11 PM
Here the "official" CO2 numbers from NOAA:

July 2020:       414.38 ppm
July 2019:       411.74 ppm
Last updated: August 5, 2020

Annual increase = 2.64 ppm, as already posted.

Index 1980 = 100.0, July 2020 = 122.3

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 09, 2020, 05:25:53 PM
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on August 2, 2020:     413.17 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            410.35 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         388.71 ppm
Last updated: August 9, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.82 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is lower, at 2.45 ppm.
This week's average should be taken with some grain of salt as most of the days were "unavailable".

Outlook.
Next week of last year came in at 410.3. Best guess would be an annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 16, 2020, 06:58:40 PM

Outlook.
Next week of last year came in at 410.3. Best guess would be an annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
Another week has passed, here are the latest NOAA numbers on CO2 (Mauna Loa):
Week beginning on August 9, 2020:     412.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            410.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        388.86 ppm
Last updated: August 16, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.44 ppm, the 10y average increase is at 2.24 ppm/a.
This week showed slightly decreasing CO2 values, in parts with a high intra-day variability.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of around 409.9 ppm. An annual increase of 2.4 ± 0.25 ppm seems likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 23, 2020, 06:45:11 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of around 409.9 ppm. An annual increase of 2.4 ± 0.25 ppm seems likely.
Sunday evening brings the latest CO2 data from NOAA (Mauna Loa)

Week beginning on August 16, 2020:     412.44 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              409.74 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           388.38 ppm
Last updated: August 23, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.70 ppm, higher than I expected last Sunday, and higher than the 10-y-average (2.40 ppm/a). The whole week was very bumpy, with large intra-day fluctuations, two days were "unavailable". The decline of the "valid" days was small. The next weeks until the annual minimum early October will see a slightly steeper decrease. I make a guess that 410 ppm as a weekly average is highly unlikely.

Outlook.
The average CO2 level of the next week last year was around 409.4 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm shall be expected.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on August 24, 2020, 01:54:07 PM
Moved a post about covid and global CO2 levels here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2992.0.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on August 30, 2020, 05:45:47 PM
Outlook.
The average CO2 level of the next week last year was around 409.4 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm shall be expected.

Another Sunday evening. It is time for the latest CO2 values from NOAA / Mauna Loa.

Week beginning on August 23, 2020:     411.96 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              409.42 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           387.47 ppm
Last updated: August 30, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.54 ppm, higher than the 10y average (2.45 ppm). Unlike last week the measured values were very smooth.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 408.8 ppm. The annual increase should be in the range of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 06, 2020, 05:52:46 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 408.8 ppm. The annual increase should be in the range of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.

Another Sunday evening - here is the latest Mauna Loa CO2 data.

Week beginning on August 30, 2020:     411.59 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              408.82 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           387.59 ppm
Last updated: September 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.77 ppm, higher than the 10y average (2.40 ppm/a).
This week has shown high intra-day variability, but the daily avarages were quite smooth. There are four more weeks until the annual minimum.

Outlook:
Last year's next week has had an average of about 408.6 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future will lead to an annual increase of around 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 07, 2020, 06:30:20 PM
With 25 days of NOAA data I calculated 412.50 ppm for August 2020. That's a growth rate of 2.55 ppm over August 2019.

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring. 
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on September 10, 2020, 04:45:29 AM
...

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring.

With the La Nina being more or less established (MEI.v2, see the 2020 ENSO thread), I'd say that a more significant observation would be that the CO2 growth rate is stabilized, and might remain stable during the coming year.

If we go back to the period 2013-2015 we had the same growth rate as now, about 2.5 ppm. After the big El Nino, we're getting back to that level.

To retain a linear forcing from CO2, we need the growth rate to increase exponentially.
A constant growth rate means that the forcing from CO2 will be increasing only logarithmically.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 10, 2020, 08:27:48 PM
Here is the official August average for Mauna Loa CO2:

August 2020:       412.55 ppm
August 2019:       409.95 ppm
Last updated: September 9, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.60 ppm. It is above the 10y average increase rate of 2.42 ppm. There is no constant increase rate, but it is slightly increasing. In this month the annual increase rate is even above the long-term trend line of annual increases, which should be at 2.46 ppm/a.

I set an index of 1980 = 100 (338.55 ppm). August 2020 has an indexed value of 121.8.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 13, 2020, 05:42:11 PM
Outlook:
Last year's next week has had an average of about 408.6 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future will lead to an annual increase of around 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is Sunday evening here in Germany, and the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 is available.

Week beginning on September 6, 2020:     411.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                  408.75 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              386.26 ppm
Last updated: September 13, 2020

The annual increase of 2.62 ppm is still higher than the 10 y average of 2.51 ppm/a.
Last week's values were highly variable intra-day with some hourly averages below 408 ppm. The lowest daily average was 410.8 ppm. With about 0.7 ppm until the annual minimum is reached there may be one or two days' average below 410 ppm, but I do not think that a whole week's average will go below that threshold.

Outlook:
Last year the following week had an average of about 408.4 ppm. The annual increase should therefore be in the range of 2.4 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 14, 2020, 01:34:22 AM
There’s no such thing as stabilized, it always changing based on current ENSO and the end points you use.  2.5 ppm rate is just an average.  I would be careful comparing 2013-2015 to now. ONI for those 3 years got progressively warmer.  2015>>2014>2013.  2019 will be the warmest ONI of the last 3 years: 2020<2019>>2018. 

...

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring.

With the La Nina being more or less established (MEI.v2, see the 2020 ENSO thread), I'd say that a more significant observation would be that the CO2 growth rate is stabilized, and might remain stable during the coming year.

If we go back to the period 2013-2015 we had the same growth rate as now, about 2.5 ppm. After the big El Nino, we're getting back to that level.

To retain a linear forcing from CO2, we need the growth rate to increase exponentially.
A constant growth rate means that the forcing from CO2 will be increasing only logarithmically.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Hefaistos on September 16, 2020, 02:03:31 PM
Wolfpack,
upthread you discussed de-trending and said:
"If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero.
I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007. "

How to interpret the bolded statement?
1. the anthropogenic trend was 0.1 ppm/year during that period, so the 14 years together showed an increase of the trend of about 1.4 ppm

2. the anthropogenic trend has increased with ~0.1 ppm/year in 2020 compared to 2007.

I can't match any of those two interpretations with your figures. Maybe would help if you could explain how you calculated the ~0.1 ppm/year figure!

I'm also a bit doubtful about the concept of calculating a trend in an index, like ENSO. Is this a standard procedure when analyzing ENSO?

I really appreciate your efforts to analyze these things, so would be great if you could explain a bit more, Thanks!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 20, 2020, 05:57:36 PM
Outlook:
Last year the following week had an average of about 408.4 ppm. The annual increase should therefore be in the range of 2.4 ± 0.3 ppm.
Sunday evening = time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on September 13, 2020:     411.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    408.48 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                 387.00 ppm
Last updated: September 20, 2020

The annual increase has increased to 2.99 ppm, higher than the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

The reason for this higher than expected increase is that the first four days of this week showed higher values than the week before. Generally the hourly values have smoothed, and the inter-day variations of the last three days are very small.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.2 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm seems to be likely.

Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on September 20, 2020, 08:10:48 PM
A Sunday evening speculation...

They tell us it takes a few months for CO2 emissions to fully mix in the atmosphere, but even so here goes.

Offsetting emissions reductions from COVID reducing economic activity are a good many megatons of CO2 from the wildfires. A double whammy is that several million acres of forests and grasslands that should have been photosynthesising were burning instead. In some parts of the world it has been very dry and too hot, that reduces photosynthesis. In other parts very wet - floods, that also are not conducive to phtosynthesis.

Hence high CO2 ppm gain? On the otther hand it might simply be that the land and ocean CO2 sinks are failing. Land use changes & ocean acidification. 

At any rate, one more nail in the coffin.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on September 21, 2020, 06:54:47 PM
ONI values are based on Nino 3.4 which is detrended for AGW: baseline is shifted every 5 years. Detrended doesn't cancel out natural variability.

The greatest influence on CO2 growth rate is current/previous ENSO state. So if you have 5 years of predominately cold ENSO followed by 5 years of warm ENSO that's natural variability BUT you're going to have a huge trend up in CO2 growth rates. You can't claim that CO2 concentrations growth rates are rapidly increasing due to anthropogenic when most of the increase is start and end points. 

Wolfpack,
upthread you discussed de-trending and said:
"If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero.
I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007. "

How to interpret the bolded statement?
1. the anthropogenic trend was 0.1 ppm/year during that period, so the 14 years together showed an increase of the trend of about 1.4 ppm

2. the anthropogenic trend has increased with ~0.1 ppm/year in 2020 compared to 2007.

I can't match any of those two interpretations with your figures. Maybe would help if you could explain how you calculated the ~0.1 ppm/year figure!

I'm also a bit doubtful about the concept of calculating a trend in an index, like ENSO. Is this a standard procedure when analyzing ENSO?

I really appreciate your efforts to analyze these things, so would be great if you could explain a bit more, Thanks!
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: gerontocrat on September 24, 2020, 12:25:35 PM
from https://folk.universitetetioslo.no/roberan/t/MLO_weekly.shtml

Goodbye Mount Fuji...

(https://folk.uio.no/roberan/t/i/MLO_weeklyGW.png)

and the mp4

https://folk.universitetetioslo.no/roberan/t/i/MLO_weekly.mp4



Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on September 24, 2020, 01:44:39 PM
Depressing little movie but a good visualization. This is the tide we have to stem.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 26, 2020, 03:33:00 PM
* just kidding *
I propose to re-draw the "Fuji picture" with its top being equivalent to 475 ppm CO2. Then we will be able to see it for a while longer...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on September 27, 2020, 04:58:09 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.2 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm seems to be likely.
Sunday evening - an update from Mauna Loa CO2:

Week beginning on September 20, 2020:     411.00 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   408.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.81 ppm
Last updated: September 27, 2020

The annual increase is 2.66 ppm. It is lower than last week, but still higher than the 10y average of 2.42 ppm/a. Apart from Sep 22 ("Unavailable") all days passed NOAA's quality standards. The intra-day and inter-day variations were in a normal range. Next week will be the lowest value of this season. I bet the week won't fall below 410 ppm.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average slightly below 408 ppm. An annual increase of 2.7 ppm ± 0.3 should be ecxpected. Let's see whether it will work out this way...
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 04, 2020, 07:02:56 PM
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average slightly below 408 ppm. An annual increase of 2.7 ppm ± 0.3 should be ecxpected. Let's see whether it will work out this way...

Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 concentration.

Week beginning on September 27, 2020:     411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    407.97 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.77 ppm
Last updated: October 4, 2020

The annual increase is 3.09 ppm. This value is higher than I had expected last Sunday and it is higher than the 10y average of 2.43 ppm/a.
The weekly average has not even gone below 411 ppm, but dipped below it last Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. From the long term experience the seasonal minimum has been reached. The increase towards the seasonal maximum in May will begin slowly throughout October.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.3 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm should be expected.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on October 06, 2020, 01:06:06 PM
With 29 of 30 days of NOAA Mauna Loa I calculated 411.30 ppm for September 2020.  That's an increase of 2.76 ppm over September 2019.

Accounting for the 5-month ENSO lag the bump from a weak El Nino should be ending with October data.  ERSSTv5 for Nino 3.4 went from +0.45°C in April to -0.19°C in May.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 06, 2020, 08:23:58 PM
And here comes the official value from NOAA:

September 2020:       411.29 ppm
September 2019:       408.54 ppm
Last updated: October 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.75 ppm. Last year (Sep 2019 vs. Sep 2018) it was at 3.03 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 11, 2020, 07:04:02 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.3 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm should be expected.

Sunday evening - time to post the latest CO2 concentration from NOAA (Mauna Loa)

Week beginning on October 4, 2020:     411.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              408.33 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           386.98 ppm
Last updated: October 11, 2020

The annual increase is 2.72 ppm. This value is again higher than the 10y average (2.41 ppm/a).
We are now in the seasonal minimum. The values were very smooth and didn't change within this week.

Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of about 408.6 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 17, 2020, 10:45:23 PM
I just added a poll to this thread, because 420 ppm is exactly 50% above pre-industrial and we are approaching this limit in the not too distant future. When exactly - this is up to you to guess.
One option per voter, which cannot be changed.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 18, 2020, 12:57:43 AM
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: karl dubhe2 on October 18, 2020, 01:30:20 AM
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.

As did I, because that's the fourth month, and it'll happen on the 20th day...   

As a long term lurker, you all might not know that Karl Dubhe is an old term for 'hash joint'.   

Puff, puff, puff; virtual pass.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: crandles on October 18, 2020, 02:11:50 AM
Question in weeks but answers in months, that raises this question:

Week commencing 26 April 2020 was 416.82
Does that week count as April because began in April?
or April because most in April?
or May because it ends in May?

3.18 increase in a year after likely La Nina this winter doesn't seem likely.

Week commencing 24 May 2020 417.43
Annual increase of 2.57 needed and last posted increase 2.72 so La Nina only has to knock .15 off that increase for May 2021 to fail.

Record week in 2019 was beaten in March 2020 by .35
Record week in 2018 was not beaten until week commencing 31 March 2019 by .32

April usually increases over March by a lot so seems likely to happen by April 22.

So initial reaction is that sensible answers seem to be May 2021 or Feb-March 2022 or April 2022.

More info by closing date of 4 Feb 21 and cannot change vote suggests waiting before actually making vote.

I am using https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html for data but there could be other sources so perhaps the source of data should be specified?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 18, 2020, 07:24:21 AM
Just for clarification:
1. A week beginning in April will be counted for April, even if it ends in May. The same rule aplies for any other month.
2. I use the source https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html as "official" data.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on October 18, 2020, 12:56:43 PM
This is a fun question. Just tagging 2.5 or something similar on certain values gives you something slightly below 420 and then it gets a bit more complicated.  :)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 18, 2020, 08:54:39 PM
It is Sunday evening here in Germany, and time for the weekly update of Mauna Loa CO2 values. But there is no update.
I will post them as soon as they are available.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 19, 2020, 07:28:13 PM
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of about 408.6 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
With one day delay the actual values from Mauna Loa are available:

Week beginning on October 11, 2020:     411.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                408.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            386.86 ppm
Last updated: October 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.55 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 y average of 2.42 ppm/a.
The intra-day variations were huge, but the inter-day variation was quite small. The seasonal minimum has now passed. We are 8.88 ppm away from the "poll value" of 420.0 ppm.

Outlook:
Last year next week was around 408.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future would result in an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on October 25, 2020, 07:25:47 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week was around 408.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future would result in an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
This week the latest CO2 values from Mauna Loa are available on Sunday evening again  :)
Week beginning on October 18, 2020:     411.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               408.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            387.54 ppm
Last updated: October 25, 2020

The annual increase of 2.79 ppm is a little bit higher than I expected last Monday. The reason for this is an uptick, combined with massive intra-day variations, from Oct 21 on. The annual increase is also higher than the 10y average of 2.40 ppm/a. 8.48 ppm are missing to the "poll value".

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 409.3 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 01, 2020, 05:48:34 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 409.3 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.

Sunday evening - time to post the latest Mauna Loa CO2 values.

Week beginning on October 25, 2020:     411.48 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                409.21 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            387.83 ppm
Last updated: November 1, 2020

The annual increase has decreased to only 2.27 ppm. For the first time since months it is lower than the 10 y average (2.36 ppm/a). October 27 was really low (411.00 ppm), which has put the average a little down. Anyway the values follow the seasonal path now and will increase steeply until beginning of January, then the slope will become moderate.

Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 409.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm should be expected.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: interstitial on November 01, 2020, 11:11:43 PM

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: interstitial on November 01, 2020, 11:15:40 PM
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: crandles on November 01, 2020, 11:23:20 PM
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?

June-Dec is always lower than May
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: interstitial on November 01, 2020, 11:26:44 PM
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?

June-Dec is always lower than May
Yeah I forgot about the annual cycle
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: crandles on November 01, 2020, 11:30:04 PM

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.

Extrapolating on from low point in annual cycle without accounting for annual cycle doesn't seem to be a great idea. Following May typically around 8 higher than the low point. 417.44+8 is well past 420 level so May 23 looks a bit too late. ;)
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: interstitial on November 01, 2020, 11:42:38 PM

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.

Extrapolating on from low point in annual cycle without accounting for annual cycle doesn't seem to be a great idea. Following May typically around 8 higher than the low point. 417.44+8 is well past 420 level so May 23 looks a bit too late. ;)
I knew their had to be something I was missing. Sometimes the only way to figure it out is to demonstrate my ignorance. I expected to be wrong. thanks for the correction.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 11:09:52 AM
What month is the usual annual minimum again?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: nanning on November 02, 2020, 12:32:00 PM
Tom, in my opinion this is trolling behaviour by you.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 06:46:23 PM
nanning, your reference does not explicitly state a minimal month. It shows a chart which looks like this year the minimum was in early October, but last year was probably earlier.
I knew the minimum would not be in February (for example) but did not remember if it is normally August, September, October or November.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 02, 2020, 10:17:51 PM
What month is the usual annual minimum again?
The annual minimum is reached end Sep / beginning Oct.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on November 05, 2020, 05:49:09 AM
I estimated October 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 at 411.30 using NOAA data. That's an increase of 2.7 ppm over October 2019. 

Due to the 3 to 5 month ENSO→CO2 lag It's still too early for any La Niña impact. Keep in mind May, June & July Niño 3.4 values were basically neutral/cool neutral: -0.2°C to -0.3°C.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 06, 2020, 06:58:41 PM
wolfpack,
thank you for your estimation.
The official values (Mauna Loa CO2) are:
October 2020:       411.28 ppm
October 2019:       408.52 ppm
Last updated: November 6, 2020

This is an annual increase of 2.76 ppm. Last year this value was at 2.52 ppm/a, two years ago 2.37 ppm/a.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 09, 2020, 09:29:07 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 409.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm should be expected.
With one day of delay the latest numbers from Mauna Loa CO2 have been published:

Week beginning on November 1, 2020:     411.68 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 409.86 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             388.03 ppm
Last updated: November 9, 2020

The annual increase went down to 1.82 ppm. This is the lowest value for many months. It is also lower than the 10 y average increase (2.36 ppm/a).
What has happened?
I do not know, to be honest.
Nov 1&2 showed a "normal" value of around 412 ppm. Nov 3 went down by almost 1.2 ppm to below 411 ppm. Since then - no graph and no daily averages ("unavailable"). Therefore the weekly average may just contain the data from Nov 1 to Nov 3. Too few data points, one of them (Nov 3) very noisy, to take this low annual increase too seriously.

Outlook:
No outlook possible, sorry.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: kassy on November 10, 2020, 01:10:37 PM
Interesting. Lets hope next week is more complete.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 11, 2020, 06:53:58 PM
mid-week update.
The problem seems to be fixed.
The latest values:
November 10:     413.16 ppm
November 09:     412.06 ppm
November 08:     412.14 ppm
November 07:     412.32 ppm
November 06:     412.29 ppm
Last Updated: November 11, 2020
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 15, 2020, 08:38:26 PM
Sunday evening - time for the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on November 8, 2020:     412.75 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 410.20 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             388.10 ppm
Last updated: November 15, 2020

The annual increase is back where it used to be, at 2.55 ppm, higher than the 10 y average (2.46 ppm/a). The problem they had last week obviously has been fixed.
According to the season the CO2 levels are slowly rising. On Nov 10 and 11 they were accompanied with high hourly deviations and a higher level than on the other days.

Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 410.3 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.6 ppm ± 0.25 is likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 22, 2020, 08:57:10 PM
Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 410.3 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.6 ppm ± 0.25 is likely.

The Sunday evening post, bringing you the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on November 15, 2020:     412.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   410.17 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                388.82 ppm
Last updated: November 22, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.36 ppm, very close to the 10 y average (2.37 ppm/a). This week began with very stable days, followed by extreme ups and downs including one 'unavailable' day.
Mid-November usually sees a stall in the seasonal cycle. From next week on the values will continue to rise.

Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at 410.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm seems to be likely.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 22, 2020, 10:53:32 PM
Quote
Mid-November usually sees a stall in the seasonal cycle.
Any idea why?
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 24, 2020, 06:53:17 PM
I have identified four periods during the year in which the steady increase is etopped (mid-Nov) or reversed (mid-Jan, mid-Feb, mid-Apr).
As global CO2 concentration depends on thousand of different influences (climate, seasons, currents, growing seasons, sea temperatures, the inequal positions of the continents on both hemispheres, ...) it seems impossible to find good and clear "monocausal" reasons for this behaviour.
I circled the periods in green on the attached graph.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: wolfpack513 on November 26, 2020, 10:25:34 AM
Looks like intra-seasonal variability: MJO.  Notice how those periods you picked are separated by ~60 days in length, typical MJO time length around the world.

Take that 2 week period beginning on February 20, 2020 for example.  Convection was suppressed with downward motion. This strengthens the marine inversion, stratifying the boundary layer from the rest of the troposphere.  Less CO2 mixes up to the higher slopes of Mauna Loa.  This all averages out over the course of the season/year.  Most of the horse race following of week to week measurements is just internal variability on top of the anthropogenic trend.
Title: Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
Post by: Stephan on November 29, 2020, 06:03:05 PM
Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at 410.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm seems to be likely.
It's Sunday evening, and here are the latest Mauna Loa CO2 data:

Week beginning on November 22, 2020:     413.84 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   410.64 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:               389.49 ppm
Last updated: November 29, 2020

The annual increase of 3.20 ppm shouldn't be taken too seriously, because the last two days showed a jump of about 2 ppm above the level before.

I think this jump will level out in the next days. An outlook is impossible, until this jump has been reversed.