Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: KiwiGriff on January 15, 2020, 05:20:25 AM

Title: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 15, 2020, 05:20:25 AM
Quote
FORECAST TO 1200 UTC THU 16-JAN-2020
Tropical Disturbance TD04F (93P)was located just north of northern
Vanuatu 1800UTC this morning. The chance for this system to develop
into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is HIGH.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SUN 19-JAN-2020
TD04F (93P) has a HIGH chance of being a tropical cyclone from
overnight tonight (Wednesday) onwards, and is forecast to move
southeast. On this track, the system is expected to affect Fiji and
Rotuma during Friday. A number of warnings and alerts issued by Fiji
Meteorological Service are currently in force for Fiji and Rotuma.
Please visit www.met.gov.fj for details while the system remains
north of 25S.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

When I spent time in Fiji around 2006 the locals said that Fiji has not been hit directly for decades.
This may be the forth direct impact since 2006 .
 
Like the so called Floridian "shield" or low rate  of land falls in the Continental USA over the last two decades  such an anomaly is  a matter of random chance.
South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/43/South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005.jpg/800px-South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005.jpg)
 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 17, 2020, 03:22:07 AM
TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2306 UTC 16-Jan-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical cyclone Tino (985hPa, Category 1) was located about 70nm (
130km) southeast of Rotuma, or about 200nm (370km) to the northwest
of Labasa this morning (16/1800 UTC), moving southeast. Maximum winds
near the centre were estimated to be about 40 knots (75km/h),
increasing to 50 knots (95km/h) in the next 24 hours, with gales
extending to 150 nm (280 km)from the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SAT 18-JAN-2020
TC Tino is expected to move southeast, across Vanua Levu, Fiji this
evening and the Lau Group early tomorrow as a Category 2 cyclone. The
system is expected to lie to the south of Tongatatu, Tonga tomorrow
night.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC TUE 21-JAN-2020

TC Tino is expected to continue on the southeast track, and based on
the current model outlooks, it is expected to move out of the tropics
during Sunday afternoon. There is a chance that it could intensify
slightly while moving south of Tonga. No other significant lows
expected.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Sat 18-Jan-2020
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 08, 2020, 05:34:47 PM
Australia

Cyclone Damien intensifies off WA coast as Karratha braces for impact on Saturday
Quote
• Damien will be the most destructive cyclone to cross the WA coast since 2013
• It is likely to hit just east of Karratha, a major population centre in the region
• A red alert has been issued ahead of the storm's arrival on Saturday afternoon
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/cyclone-damien-intensifies-off-wa-as-karratha-braces-for-impact/11942984
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2020, 01:18:03 AM
Bomb Cyclone Dennis Could Rival Some of the Most Intense North Atlantic Storms on Record
Quote
Storm Dennis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northwestern Europe this weekend.
It will likely undergo bombogenesis, indicative of a rapidly strengthening powerful storm.

Dennis could rival some of the most intense North Atlantic storms in terms of lowest sea-level pressure.
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

A bomb cyclone is a term used when a low-pressure system undergoes bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars within 24 hours, a sign of rapid strengthening.

Forecast guidance suggests the central pressure of Storm Dennis will drop below 930 millibars when it's south of Iceland by Friday or Saturday. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm, increasing the likelihood of strong winds. ...
https://weather.com/news/international/news/2020-02-12-bomb-cyclone-dennis-rival-most-intense-north-atlantic-storms

More here:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg249436.html#msg249436
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 13, 2020, 09:33:30 AM
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

I followed the progress of Ciara closely on Twitter last weekend. Starting here:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1226451525964304385

I will be doing much the same with Dennis this coming weekend. However neither of them are "hurricanes" or "tropical cyclones". Are we broadening the remit of this thread?

If so:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2020, 04:53:28 PM
Are we broadening the remit of this thread? 

Quote
Alicia M Bentley: "It's pretty difficult to get a <-4σ standardized MSLP anomaly in the North Atlantic during the winter. If this forecast verifies, we could see a 927-hPa cyclone with hurricane-force winds at 1800 UTC on February 15th!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1227270399508934657

920mb is hurricane country. 

Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC)  2/13/20, 7:55 AM
Feb 12-13: explosive cyclogenesis across the western and central Atlantic, as seen via GOES-E RGB air mass imagery -- low continues to produce hazardous marine conditions including #hurricane force winds to 80 kt, seas well in excess of 40 ft. #MarineWx
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1227939448807026690
Image below; more at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 13, 2020, 05:20:30 PM
920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on February 13, 2020, 06:05:47 PM
920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.

I agree.  This is not a hurricane.  While this low pressure is rare, it is not unprecedented for a winter storm.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on February 13, 2020, 09:48:31 PM
gfs .. 42 hours out : Dennis has 2 deep centres below 925 mb .. both potentially in the 5 deepest lows recorded . In the following hours one deepens further to below 920 mb .. potentially the 2nd lowest pressure ever recorded in the N. Atlantic . This Dennis is certainly a menace to me .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 13, 2020, 11:59:05 PM
If we're sticking with Dennis in here, then this is the 18Z chart and the 48 hour forecast.

Those isobars are pretty tightly packed over North Cornwall!

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 15, 2020, 11:14:55 AM
The NWS 06Z chart. 936 hPa and "hurricane force" winds, although thankfully not yet in North Cornwall. The rain certainly has however!

Plus the UKMO's 12Z forecast:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 15, 2020, 02:37:46 PM
NWS OPC on Twitter: "Today is the climatological peak for #extratropical #hurricaneforce lows in the North Atlantic. Can you tell? #MarineWx”
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228428157830619136
Image below.

NWS OPC on Twitter: "GOES-16 RGB Airmass imagery from 12z yesterday to 21z today show the evolution of yesterdays picturesque #HurricaneForce low, and the development of the next rapidly intensifying low that is forecast to deepen to 914 mb by 18z tomorrow. #Marinewx"
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228441208814309376
Colorful satellite gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 15, 2020, 11:41:52 PM
The NWS 18Z chart for Storm Dennis. 920 hPa MSLP and the winds have certainly reached North Cornwall now!

Lisa the LEAF and I ventured out into them, and met another Lisa on the beach!

https://youtu.be/1eg_GJeeUKo
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on February 16, 2020, 06:19:22 AM
Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen. ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 11:18:46 AM
Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen. ;)

Turning my back to the prevailing wind was quite effective. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Meanwhile, here are the UKMO 0Z and NWS 6Z charts, plus the latest band of rain across South West England:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 01:57:20 PM
According to the Environment Agency this is the largest number of flood alerts/warnings ever issued simultaneously in the history of the English enclave of the once United Kingdom:

https://youtu.be/zuHobfE7liM

Note the recently flooded building site!

P.S. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/storm-dennis-triggers-red-rain-warning
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 16, 2020, 02:26:04 PM
Hi Jim!

Here in the Calder Valley the ghoulish media crews picked a Dud to spend the night awaiting!

The River Calder was a good metre and a half below the 5.02m of last Sunday's peak levels

The Army are now cast with a 'Grand old Duke of York-ish' task of taking away the mountain of (now sodden) sandbags they deployed up and down the Valley over the course of yesterday p.m.

My thoughts are with all of those struggling further south of here with the kind of River levels that visited us last Sunday!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on February 16, 2020, 02:29:33 PM
woke during the night to strange banging .. then found lots of insulation around my mobile home this morning . Realise now it was the roof trying to escape . Thankfully it didn't quite get away .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 16, 2020, 03:05:15 PM
I have just discovered that WorldView now offers geostationary imagery with 10 minute resolution.

Here's GOES-E at 09Z yesterday morning:

https://go.nasa.gov/2OZQDkb
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2020, 03:12:00 PM
Dr. Michael Folmer, one the OPC's Marine Forecasters, has written a blog post summarizing the most recent hurricane force low pressure system in the E Atlantic. It includes spectacular satellite imagery, and can be found at this link:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2020/02/16/north-atlantic-storminess-february-13-15-2020/

Quote
A rapidly intensifying low pressure system made its way into the Atlantic on Tuesday, 11 February 2020 and quickly grew into a powerful extratropical cyclone producing hurricane force winds by Thursday, 13 February 2020. By 0600 UTC on 14 February 2020, the low bottomed out with a minimum low pressure of 929mb. This system deepened by more than 40 mb in 24 hours during its rapid intensification phase, classifying it as a “bomb” cyclone. It tracked north towards Iceland where it caused hurricane force wind gusts, the highest gust, although terrain enhanced, reached 159 mph (https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/near-record-wind-gusts-255kmh-hafnarfjall-iceland-mk/). These gusts were recorded on the leading edge of the cyclone where the cold conveyor belt north of the occluded front in the N-NE quadrants played a role.

This intense extratropical cyclone was closely followed by another cyclone (named Dennis by the UKMet office) rapidly intensified during the day on 14 February 2020 deepening by 40 mb in 24 hours, classifying it as another bomb cyclone. This system is following a similar path as the previous cyclone, capitalizing on the favorable baroclinic environment left in the wake of the first cyclone.

In the RGB Airmass imagery (above) from GOES-16, it is clear that there is also a large potential vorticity anomaly (red shading) upstream of the system, originating from a trough over the eastern United States. This inflow of potential vorticity into the storm is aiding the rapid intensification of the system. This system deepened to 920 mb as of the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) 1800 UTC analysis on 15 February 2020. Hurricane force winds have been sampled by ASCAT scatterometers and by aircraft in the early morning hours of 15 February 2020 with maximum winds of 94 kt! …
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 16, 2020, 03:21:23 PM
Images on FB/twitter showing a funnel cloud/waterspout heading up the Menai straits between Wales and Anglesey lunchtime today?.....

https://twitter.com/AledH_/status/1229013215784427520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1229013215784427520&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FAledH_%2Fstatus%2F1229013215784427520
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2020, 05:07:31 PM
Stu Ostro: "The sun rises and sets on #StormDennis and its #Fujiwhara dance partner”
https://mobile.twitter.com/stuostro/status/1228800670075150337
Satellite gif at the link.

—-
  Edit:
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 2/16/20, 12:23 PM
What a wild & complex weather extremity—a 929 millibar beast followed by another meteorological bomb as the pressure of #StormDennis dropped to 920 (one of the lowest on record in this part of the world), & then the 2 combined into a massive cyclone while doing a #Fujiwhara dance
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1229093851895336960
Different, colorized, sat-gif at the link.

—————-
—-  :o
Andrew Freedman: "When a forecaster decides to draw a cold front THIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BIG."
https://mobile.twitter.com/afreedma/status/1228800328570736641
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2020, 05:39:27 PM
Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on February 17, 2020, 05:44:57 PM
Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.
It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2020, 07:02:26 PM
Quote
It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.

 :o  Some locations received two months’ worth of rain in 48 hours.

Hereford hit by 'devastating' floods as River Wye reaches record levels in aftermath of Storm Dennis
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hereford-floods-river-why-record-levels-storm-dennis-weather-latest-a4363976.html

Flood risk remains as Storm Dennis rain swells rivers to ‘exceptional’ levels
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/flood-risk-remains-as-storm-dennis-rain-swells-rivers-to-exceptional-levels-38964009.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2020, 04:03:28 AM
U.K.

Quote
Dave Throup (@DaveThroupEA) 2/17/20, 3:55 PM
I’ve seen things today I would not have believed.
Large parts of my home town and village are underwater tonight.
This is not normal flooding, we are in uncharted territory.
So sorry for everyone who has flooded.
Back tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/davethroupea/status/1229509808262451201
Images below; others at the link.

Quote
Matt Dobson (@supercell_1996) 2/17/20, 5:17 PM
For the benefit of those less familiar with #Worcester, here's a Google Maps image vs one of Dave Grubb's images for comparison, showing the extent of the flood water vs a normal scene. Incredible extent of flooding, but the extent of the flooding into Powick is most unusual.
https://twitter.com/supercell_1996/status/1229530282023358464
Image below.

Quote
David Sutton (@djsut) 2/17/20, 3:08 AM
The scene from the train in to Foregate Street this morning
https://twitter.com/djsut/status/1229316680255492097
Brief video.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on February 18, 2020, 05:13:52 PM
https://youtu.be/I473iDkCIYE
start at time 0:35

Massive Two-Tiered A380 Jet Makes 'White-Knuckle' ‘Crab’ Landing at Heathrow During Storm Dennis
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on February 18, 2020, 05:41:31 PM
Holy crab!  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 21, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
A Channel 4 News report from what used to be the streets of Pontypridd in South Wales:

https://youtu.be/I8taVtBI4Dc

Quote
Have a look at that mountainside

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Juan C. García on April 01, 2020, 04:28:10 AM
Quote
Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running more than three degrees above average, increasing the prospects for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes this spring and potentially stronger hurricane activity in the summer and fall.

The last time Gulf of Mexico waters were similarly warm in 2017, it coincided with an above-average tornado season through the spring, and then Category 4 Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas Gulf Coast at the end of summer.
Quote
The bottom line

While it is too early to predict any specific events, the presence of abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico does make certain events more likely to occur and/or become more intense than they would have been otherwise. Individual events — including particular severe weather outbreaks and the specific implications for hurricane season — can’t be predicted yet.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/31/gulf-of-mexico-warm-tornadoes-hurricanes/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_warmgulf-145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/31/gulf-of-mexico-warm-tornadoes-hurricanes/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_warmgulf-145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans)
By Matthew Cappucci
March 31 at 2:13 PM
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on April 01, 2020, 03:55:55 PM
Tornadic activity is not influenced by warmth, particularly ocean warmth.  Rather it is influenced by the temperature gradient, between the warmth and cold.  The greater the difference, the stronger the storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2020, 06:01:38 PM
Communications down after category 5 Cyclone Harold hits Vanuatu:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/communications-down-after-category-5-cyclone-harold-hits-vanuatu

Quote
Cyclone Harold made landfall on the north and west of the country on Monday, after spending Sunday sitting off the country’s west coast, gathering strength.

The Vanuatu meteorology and geo-hazards department warned that hurricane force winds, reaching up to 235km/h were expected across parts of the country on Monday, as well as heavy rainfalls, flash flooding and “very rough to phenomenal seas”.


“Communications to Santo and Malekula [Vanuatu’s two largest islands] are cut now, so we don’t know what’s happening,” said Eric Durpaire, the chief of Vanuatu’s field office for Unicef Pacific, over the phone from the country’s capital of Port Vila. “The latest information we had was that the roof of the municipality building of Santo has collapsed and there is flooding.”
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 06, 2020, 07:01:37 PM
Tropical Cyclone Harold Barrels into Vanuatu with 145-mph Winds
Quote
Harold likely to be the second strongest cyclone in Vanuatu’s history

This is cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere, and Vanuatu gets its share of cyclones, but Harold is an uncommonly powerful storm for this part of the South Pacific. According to JTWC, the only two cyclones of at least Category 3 strength on record to pass within 100 nm (115 miles) of Espiritu Santo are Zuman, which crossed the island as a minimal Category 3 storm (sustained winds of 115 mph) in April 1998, and Dani, which made landfall from the south as a strong Category 2 storm (sustained winds of 105 mph) in January 1999. Harold is thus likely to strike an unprecedented blow to this island, whose economy is based on subsistence farming.

Rainfall totals of over 10 inches are likely in some areas, with widespread totals of over 6 inches, said weather.com. Landslides and flash flooding are expected.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-cyclone-harold-barrels-into-vanuatu-with-145-mph-winds
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 07, 2020, 10:56:47 PM
Here is where you can find out the name lists for this year for anywhere in the world:
https://public.wmo.int/en/About-us/FAQs/faqs-tropical-cyclones/tropical-cyclone-naming
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on April 08, 2020, 12:01:54 PM
at least 29 drowned as passengers washed overboard from packed Solomon Islands ferry ..
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on April 09, 2020, 10:05:41 AM
Pacific's monster storm destroys tourist resorts in Tonga

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-pacific-monster-storm-tourist-resorts.html
  by Mary Lyn Fonua


A resurgent Tropical Cyclone Harold flattened tourist resorts in Tonga Thursday, extending a week-long trail of destruction across four South Pacific island nations that has claimed more than two dozen lives.

The cyclone gathered pace as it bore down on the tiny island kingdom, which declared a state of emergency, warning residents to seek shelter from destructive winds and massive sea surges.

By early Thursday it had again become a scale-topping Category Five superstorm—surprising meteorologists after signs earlier in the week that its intensity was dropping.

Packing winds of up to 260 kilometres per hour (160 miles per hour), it cut power in parts of the country and police said at least three tourist resorts north of the capital Nuku'alofa had been reduced to rubble.

The cyclone killed 27 people in the Solomons late last week before barrelling southeast to directly hit Vanuatu as a Category Five, obliterating entire towns in the northern provinces.

There have been no reports of deaths in Vanuatu, Fiji or Tonga, with emergency workers saying residents in the hardest hit areas took shelter early.

"It appears that many buildings and crops have been destroyed and some people in the most affected areas have lost everything," Red Cross Vanuatu secretary general Jacqueline de Gaillande said.

Harold weakened slightly to a still-formidable Category Four as it lashed Fiji on Wednesday but hopes the storm was dissipating were dashed as it regathered momentum heading towards Tonga.

"We knew the track it was going to take but initially everyone thought it was just going to be Cat 3 or 4, but as it progressed over open warm waters it deepened."

"It's almost unheard of to see a cyclone tracking south away from the equator, weakening, then suddenly returning back to Cat 5 so far south," he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic has complicated disaster relief efforts, with Vanuatu reluctant to open its international borders as it seeks to remain one of the few countries without any confirmed virus cases.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 21, 2020, 06:07:31 PM
NHC is doing a 60-hour forecast point this year.  Also, Local Times on some products!
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) 4/20/20, 1:32 PM
The 2020 edition of our annual "Update on National Hurricane Center Products and Services" includes a graphical depiction of storm surge inundation values and 60-hour forecast information. @NWS @NHC_Atlantic @NHC_Pacific @NHC_Surge @NHC_TAFB

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_new_products_services_2020.pdf 

https://twitter.com/nwsnhc/status/1252288941270548482
“Working from home” photo below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on April 25, 2020, 12:13:40 AM
Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific is now an 80% likelihood to form the first ever April tropical depression in the region. The Pacific Ocean region extending west of the Yucatan is actually considerably warmer than the Gulf of Mexico at this point in time.

_________________________________

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of
disturbed weather located well south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. The broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
has become a little better defined today. However, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat during that
time. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves northwestward at around 10 mph. By
late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for
development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 8 PM PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on April 26, 2020, 12:35:10 AM
Invest 90E has transformed into a tropical depression (TD). The first April TD ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Records date back to the 1960's.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 11:50:23 PM
All Signs Point To An Active Hurricane Season
https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-prediction.amp
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1203246

... There are over a dozen forecasts published. And even though the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won't come until May 21, a strong consensus in the forecasts across the industry indicates the US is in for an active season.

In the Atlantic Ocean basin this year, the University of Arizona expects 19 storms and 10 hurricanes, Accuweather predicts 14 to 18 storms and seven to nine hurricanes, and Penn State University's best forecast is for 20 storms.

... This year the average forecast -- for all 13 groups that have submitted to Seasonal Hurricane Predictions -- is eight hurricanes and 17 named storms.

An average season sees six hurricanes and 12 named storms.

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/

"Sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic are running well above normal and have been for the past few months"

"The current Atlantic sea surface temperature setup is consistent with active Atlantic hurricane seasons," says Klotzbach. "With the notable exception of the far North Atlantic, which remains somewhat cooler than normal."

(https://mondrian.mashable.com/uploads%252Fcard%252Fimage%252F1284874%252Fa8eaf985-47e3-4d42-9f6e-bddb395b4712.webp%252Foriginal.webp?signature=kL1jvePhDck9NrsTQWmIrZ-bZKY=&source=https%3A%2F%2Fblueprint-api-production.s3.amazonaws.com)

"There is high confidence that El Niño will not inhibit hurricane activity this year," Klotzbach says

There is one organization that is a slight outlier. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, is forecasting a normal to a slightly above-normal season.

"The ECMWF model has weaker La Niña development, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic are weaker, so both of these factors might give the ECMWF model a less-strong hurricane season than forecasts using NCEP inputs," Stockdale says, referring to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

He also notes that their calibration is based on 1993-2015, and does not take into account the last four years (2016-19), which have been more active.

Those same years, the ECMWF has predicted fewer hurricanes ahead of the season than were observed.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 09, 2020, 03:43:55 AM
Thanks for the post vox.

Looking at that image, one sees a slightly negative SST anomaly in the Cape Verde islands off the coast of Mauritania. That's a common launching region for Atlantic hurricanes. Will be interesting to watch that region as the summer evolves.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on May 09, 2020, 03:53:15 PM
All Signs Point To An Active Hurricane Season
https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-prediction.amp
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1203246
"There is high confidence that El Niño will not inhibit hurricane activity this year," Klotzbach says

That is a rather odd way of saying it, as EL Nino conditions inhibit Atlantic hurricane activity. 

Most of the models are predicting a more active season due to La Nina development this summer.  ECMWF is not.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: oren on May 10, 2020, 04:10:01 PM
Not odd at all. El Nino will not inhibit hurricane activity because with high confidence there will not be one.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on May 10, 2020, 05:03:23 PM
Not odd at all. El Nino will not inhibit hurricane activity because with high confidence there will not be one.

Hmm.  Does that not fall under the false logic of null result?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: interstitial on May 11, 2020, 11:28:41 AM
ONI index from NOAA indicates an El Nino now but it is almost the weakest possible to qualify for an el Nino. 0.5 is the lowest value to qualify and all but one of the 5 required three month averages are 0.5 the other is 0.6. My understanding is the NOAA defination has weaker requirement than the other definition?
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php (https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 12, 2020, 04:58:03 PM
Mark Sudduth on Twitter: "Weekly video discussion takes a look at even more evidence that’s literally pointing to an active hurricane season ahead. Plus, here’s a handy naming guide for this season - includes east and west Pac too! Thanks @TyphoonMr for the graphic.

Off-Season Hurricane Outlook and Discussion for May 11, 2020
https://t.co/4sCSK732XN 

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1259940734976897027
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on May 12, 2020, 05:44:32 PM
Ha, I watch Mark all the time - I like his content quite a bit.

Everything is appearing to provide the conditions for a strong hurricane season, but who knows what to expect. That said, it's looking more and more like the rest of the year will either be neutral or a slight la nina, which again makes the hurricane season worse (on average).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 13, 2020, 09:27:49 AM






https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/122331_MIATWOAT.shtml

(a little but of early action. not a threat at the moment. looks like a fish storm if it forms at all)

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 13, 2020, 11:42:32 PM
Typhoon VongFong set to say hello to the Philipines.

Rapidly intensified to  Cat 2 in the last 24 hours and forecast to become a Cat 4 in the next 24 hours. Small storm in diameter, but will pack a punch where it hits and deliver up to 50 cm of rain.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/typhoon-vongfong-rapidly-intensifies-as-it-heads-for-th-1843443041
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 14, 2020, 09:06:40 AM
A little bit of early action

Quote
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on May 15, 2020, 04:48:09 PM
impressed by gfs having this in the forecast the last 5 days or so .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 15, 2020, 10:06:18 PM
How about a hurricane (tropical cyclone) season prediction contest to promote awareness of what's going on?

I'll throw out a straw man and see if anyone wants to play along. (My guess in parens)

1) # of Atlantic Basin hurricanes (10)

2) # of 2020 Major (Cat 4/5) Atlantic Basin hurricanes (4)

3) Lowest barometric pressure - Atlantic Basin (907 mbars)

4) # of Global Major tropical cyclones cat 4/5 (13)

5) City closest to largest US hurricane landfall (Wilmington, NC)

Scoring

Cat 1,2 & 4 - 25 points for exact score. Subtract 5 pts for each point difference between actual result and guess. Minimum score score zero.

Cat 3 - Same as above, except subtract 1 pt for difference between actual and guess.

Cat 5 - 25 pt Bonus for guessing location closest to largest US hurricane landfall (defined by highest sustained wind speed) landfall among the following locations

(Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Panama City, Tampa, Key West, West Palm Beach, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington, NYC or NONE if you don't think a hurricane will make a US landfall)

Guesses in by May 31. 

Suggestions welcome. I confess a certain dislike for the Atlantic Basin bias vs. global, but they have the hurricane hunter aircraft giving more precise measures which would minimize measurement controversy.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on May 15, 2020, 10:48:56 PM
I realize this is the hurricane and not typhoon thread - but the modeling is predicting a typhoon to form and eventually hit to the east of India. I will be watching this because the potential is certainly there.
 
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/91B_gefs_latest.png)

In terms of how strong this year's Atlantic season will be - I'm expecting about 5 major, named storms. In general, the conditions appear to be aligning for a strong season, like that of 2005 with Wilma!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 15, 2020, 11:03:00 PM
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 16, 2020, 12:38:52 AM
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Just different regional names for a tropical cyclone. I think this thread is the natural place for all tropical cyclone discussion, regardless of title.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 01:01:53 AM
The US Navy does a good job of telling us about typhoons (Pacific North of the Equator) & cyclones (Pacific South) of the Equator https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Invest 91B likely to hit North India or Bangladesh, which is just a series of deltas & already in deep trouble with sea level rise.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io9120web.txt

WTIO21 PGTW 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 86.3E TO 12.8N 85.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 602
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 150746Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91B WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161000Z.//
NNNN
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Lewis on May 16, 2020, 03:43:13 AM
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Yup pretty much.

Hurricanes - North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific Ocean
Typhoon - Northwest Pacific Ocean
Cyclone - South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on May 16, 2020, 07:13:41 AM
Hurricanes - North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific Ocean
Typhoon - Northwest Pacific Ocean
Cyclone - South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean

They are all correctly called Tropical Cyclones.
Quote
  A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain or squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane (/ˈhʌrɪkən, -keɪn/),[1][2][3] typhoon (/taɪˈfuːn/), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.[4] A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean; in the south Pacific or Indian Ocean, comparable storms are referred to simply as "tropical cyclones" or "severe cyclonic storms".[4]

"Tropical" refers to the geographical origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively over tropical seas. "Cyclone" refers to their winds moving in a circle,[5] whirling round their central clear eye, with their winds blowing counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to the Coriolis effect. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. They derive their energy through the evaporation of water from the ocean surface, which ultimately recondenses into clouds and rain when moist air rises and cools to saturation. 

My bad .
If this is  re posted  this next year it will hopefully be  under the more correct title tropical cyclones.
 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: kassy on May 16, 2020, 10:58:27 AM
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Just different regional names for a tropical cyclone. I think this thread is the natural place for all tropical cyclone discussion, regardless of title.

Yes the older threads are also named Hurricane season and have all tropical cyclones.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 12:37:17 PM
This one looks like its heading for Kolkata

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE,
CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANSIVE (OVER 600NM ACROSS) RAIN BANDS . THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FR0M A 160309Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (31C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR  WEAKENS. VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE TC MOVES
POLEWARD, HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION BEING
IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL EASILY OFFSET THE VWS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY WARM SST WILL PROMOTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS. AFTERWARD, TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED
TO 30KTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 16, 2020, 11:10:39 PM
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/162038.shtml

Quote
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on May 17, 2020, 12:37:13 AM
I hope Kulkata suffers less severely than Calcutta did in 1864 when a 40ft wall of water was driven into the city by an approaching cyclone .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: sidd on May 17, 2020, 06:29:02 AM
I was at a farm near calcutta when the Bhola cyclone hit in 1970 and that was pretty letal. Coconut trees were bent parallel to the ground and the coconuts were coming off like cannonballs. if you were outside, impossible to stand or walk upright, had to bend double or crawl.

This ones looking like much closer to the city, and the city has grown a great deal. That farm i was at is now a hospital serving a suburb.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 17, 2020, 11:15:51 AM
A lot less lethal, but in the North Atlantic we have Tropical Storm Arthur:

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on May 17, 2020, 11:39:01 AM
Currently 01B Amphan is forecasted to have winds about 105 kt before landfall. It's weaker but not much weaker compared with Bhola.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Alexander555 on May 17, 2020, 06:47:42 PM
Looks like he will move from kolkata to Dhaka. And still pretty powerfull.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 17, 2020, 07:34:18 PM
Infrared gif of Amphan strengthening and developing an eye. Water temps are 31C. This storm could become a beast.
 
https://imgur.com/cX1J7RR
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on May 17, 2020, 10:31:22 PM
Amphan rapidly intensified to category 4 SSHWS. And it's probably not a peak.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 18, 2020, 01:57:25 AM
The JTWC has this storm peaking at 125 kt sustained winds in 24 hours. My experience is that agency predictions like these have been very conservative. I won't be shocked if it approaches 150 kts.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Note, the deadliest cyclone in human history was Bhola in this region in 1970. Estimated 300k-500k lost.

Edit: imagine the stress on authorities tasked with trying to strike the right balance between both limiting covid spread and storm related suffering. This storm is looking very ominous.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 18, 2020, 04:59:35 AM
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0120web.txt

Highlights (no aircraft to verify, but this storm is approaching Cat 5 strength based upon Dvorak method).

180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 86.4E.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM ROUND EYE.

THE 130 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS JUST BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS) BASED ON LOWER CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES.

LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT THE HIGH INTENSITY.

GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY STRONG UNTIL
LANDFALL...WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS BEFORE LANDFALL.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 18, 2020, 09:27:00 AM
https://ddgmui.imd.gov.in/dwr_img/GIS/cyclone.html

(https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/pdf_to_img/1_rsmc_5ec2037eb505c.png)
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php#.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: wdmn on May 18, 2020, 10:56:59 AM
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-05-16-tropical-cyclone-one-amphan-bay-of-bengal-india-bangladesh

The triangular shape of the Bay of Bengal acts to funnel storm-surge waters into Bangladesh, and the very shallow bottom of the bay allows the surge to pile up to very high heights. Thus, there is good reason to be concerned when a hurricane-strength tropical cyclone gets loose in the Bay of Bengal: Twenty-six of the 35 deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms, as seen in Weather Underground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History (note that since this list was published, research has found that the 1882 Great Bombay Cyclone, which supposedly killed 100,000 people, in reality never occurred). The big killer in all of the most deadly Bay of Bengal cyclones was the storm surge.

During the past two centuries, 42% of the Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995). The deadliest storm in world history, the 1970 Bhola Cyclone of 1970, killed an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 when it made landfall in Bangladesh on Nov. 12, bringing a storm surge estimated at up to 10.4 meters (34 feet) to the coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 18, 2020, 11:11:25 AM
The JTWC 900Z has Amphan at 140 kts sustained winds, which I believe ties the record for the Bay of Bengal. That's just past the Cat 5 threshold.

Edit: The potential to somewhat dodge a bullet exists with increasing wind shear prior to landfall. Not sure how much that would diminish the gathering surge.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 01:11:44 PM
The JTWC 900Z has Amphan at 140 kts sustained winds, which I believe ties the record for the Bay of Bengal. That's just past the Cat 5 threshold.

Edit: The potential to somewhat dodge a bullet exists with increasing wind shear prior to landfall. Not sure how much that would diminish the gathering surge.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 52
FEET.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0120web.txt
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: blumenkraft on May 18, 2020, 01:29:05 PM
OMG  :-[
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on May 18, 2020, 01:42:00 PM
I guess, tides will not be low. Time of landfall is 2 days before new moon. Forecasts are impressive. Amphan may surpass all observed before in this region.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 18, 2020, 02:28:21 PM
(https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/uploaded_img/surge8.png)
https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/cyclone.php#.

(https://mausam.imd.gov.in/backend/assets/pdf_to_img/2_rsmc_5ec20380089d2.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on May 18, 2020, 07:12:55 PM
New forecast (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1589817902.pdf) by IMD suggests a bit more intensification.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 07:26:40 PM
New forecast (http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/images/cyclone_pdfs/indian_1589817902.pdf) by IMD suggests a bit more intensification.
Another blow to the very vulnerable Sundarbans

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=236106;topic=2569.700
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: kassy on May 18, 2020, 08:11:24 PM
That link just takes us back to here. Where should it go?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 18, 2020, 10:24:35 PM
Long-Term Data Show Hurricanes are Getting Stronger
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-long-term-hurricanes-stronger.html

In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information and University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, who analyzed nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.

"Through modeling and our understanding of atmospheric physics, the study agrees with what we would expect to see in a warming climate like ours," says James Kossin, a NOAA scientist based at UW-Madison and lead author of the paper, which is published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The research builds on Kossin's previous work, published in 2013, which identified trends in hurricane intensification across a 28-year data set. However, says Kossin, that timespan was less conclusive and required more hurricane case studies to demonstrate statistically significant results.

Kossin's previous research has shown other changes in hurricane behavior over the decades, such as where they travel and how fast they move. In 2014, he identified poleward migrations of hurricanes, where tropical cyclones are travelling farther north and south, exposing previously less-affected coastal populations to greater risk.

In 2018, he demonstrated that hurricanes are moving more slowly across land due to changes in Earth's climate. This has resulted in greater flood risks as storms hover over cities and other areas, often for extended periods of time.

James P. Kossin el al., "Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades," PNAS (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1920849117
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 18, 2020, 11:43:49 PM
Cyclone Amphan: More Than 1 Million To Be Evacuated In India, Bangladesh
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/05/18/Cyclone-Amphan-More-than-1-million-to-be-evacuated-in-India-Bangladesh/9891589822288/

May 18 (UPI) -- More than 1 million people at the India-Bangladesh border are preparing to evacuate before Super Cyclone Amphan, which is predicted to make landfall Wednesday evening.

The Indian Meteorological Department said Amphan, which developed in the Bay of Bengal, will reach wind speeds Monday of 167 miles per hour, and will arrive in the northeastern Indian states of Odisha and West Bengal and on the coast of Bangladesh, near the Ganges River Delta.

Meteorologists predicted Monday that the storm will lose some intensity as it hits land, but could cause storm surges as high as 30 feet.

SN Pradhan, director general of the Indian National Disaster Response Force, said that on top of the coronavirus epidemic, the cyclone presented a "dual challenge" to safely house evacuees while taking steps to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Many migrant workers returning to Odisha and West Bengal for the national pandemic lockdown have been housed in temporary quarantine centers which are now in the path of the cyclone.

In Bangladesh, surges of high winds, rain and flooding from the cyclone are expected to strike the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement, where more than 1 million Rohingya refugees have gathered in primitive conditions after fleeing persecution in Myanmar.

https://weather.com/health/coronavirus/news/2020-05-17-rohingya-refugees-bangladesh-coronavirus-cases

Amphan is the first super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since 1999, when a super storm hit the Orissa coast, killing more than 9,000 people.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on May 19, 2020, 12:25:42 AM
Amphan has closed eye and weakened for a while, though I doubt that it reduces danger of the storm surge.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 19, 2020, 12:43:42 AM
Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 19, 2020, 07:20:33 AM
Amphan has closed eye and weakened for a while, though I doubt that it reduces danger of the storm surge.
Amphan may have weakened but the wind speed forecast at landfall has increased to 100 knots.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on May 19, 2020, 09:16:19 AM
Usually with an eye wall replacement cycle the wind field increases.
Wave height = Wind speed x fetch.
The physics of Climate Change suggest more energy available stronger storm potential.
Quote
Storms of My Grandchildren
The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe
James Hansen
Yet another tropical cyclone that has exceeded projections based on out dated models.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluice on May 19, 2020, 10:51:04 AM
Minor is unlikely to help very much. It’s the storm surge that will cause most damage, especially at Ganges Delta

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on May 19, 2020, 05:05:28 PM
Minor is unlikely to help very much. It’s the storm surge that will cause most damage, especially at Ganges Delta

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh

Yeah, that's bad. Lots of salty seawater all over the crops!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on May 19, 2020, 05:14:42 PM
& just like that Vertical Wind Shear and a change in the upper atmosphere means that much of Amphan's energy has been dumped into the Bay of Bengal.

191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMNT GIVEN
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 191215Z
OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 19, 2020, 09:46:55 PM
U.S., Outer Banks of North Carolina

Brian McNoldy on Twitter: "You can't make this up... #Arthur 2020 is the 4th Arthur to scrape the Outer Banks. It's most like the 1996 version, but this is weird. (Technically, the 2002 version wasn't quite a named storm yet when over the Outer Banks.)”
https://mobile.twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1262392549051977739
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 21, 2020, 03:25:18 AM
Damage reports coming in from Amphan. This from Al Jazeera.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/bangladesh-india-brace-amphan-largest-cyclone-20-years-200520022755647.html

This is an unfolding disaster.....
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2020, 05:50:18 PM
5/21/20, 11:16 AM
NOAA predicts more active Atlantic hurricane season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 and above). 60% chance of above normal season, 30% chance near normal, 10 percent chance below normal
https://twitter.com/mschleifstein/status/1263488764774678528
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 23, 2020, 04:52:57 AM
Up to 500,000 homeless families in Bangladesh as a result of Amphan.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/tommybeer/2020/05/22/500000-families-may-be-homeless-due-to-devastation-from-cyclone-amphan/#486526232cdd

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 23, 2020, 10:36:19 PM
Interesting paper from 2014 which finds wind speeds 18 hours before landfall are best correlated to  storm surge height.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2013EI000527.1

Amphan was a Cat 4 storm 18 hours before it delivered an estimated 5m tall wall of water to the border of India / Bangladesh.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 27, 2020, 04:13:40 PM
TS Bertha forms in the North Atlantic, then heads across South Carolina:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on May 27, 2020, 04:25:50 PM
TS Bertha forms in the North Atlantic, then heads across South Carolina:

Tell me about it.  I am watching the wind and rain outside my windows!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 5/27/20, 8:30 AM
#Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina - the 2nd named storm of the 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. The only years on record (since 1851) with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to May 27 are 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1265621454533431296
Image below, gif at the link.

- The only other year with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to June 1st than those 4 is 2016. No season has had three named storms prior to June 1st on record.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on May 29, 2020, 03:57:09 AM
Something percolating in the 30C waters SW of Central America. GFS has it heading over the Yucatan into the Gulf.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized shower activity located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico is associated with
a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it drifts
northward. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
this weekend and early next week.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.  See products from your local weather office
for additional information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on May 29, 2020, 02:24:27 PM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM EDT Fir May 29 2020

A broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic could become the third tropical or subtropical depression to form before hurricane season officially begins.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tagged this system Invest 92L Thursday evening, a designation that allows for specialized computer models to be run on it.

The NHC gives this system a low chance of development by this weekend. Any development would likely occur no later than Saturday.

By Jonathan Belles

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on May 30, 2020, 12:05:35 AM
Evidence Found of Kuroshio Current Strengthening Due to Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-evidence-kuroshio-current-due-tropical.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/5ed0e1e166d18.jpg)
The mechanism of a positive feedback of tropical cyclones to the warming climate was discovered: intensified tropical cyclones under global warming accelerate the Kuroshio current by modifying the underlying oceanic eddy field.

A team of researchers has found evidence of the Kuroshio current strengthening due to intensifying tropical cyclones. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes analyzing climate data revealing evidence that bigger cyclones add energy to spinning eddies.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuroshio_Current

... The Kuroshio current is a mass movement of water in the Pacific Ocean—the current carries warm water from the tropics into the colder, higher latitudes—it is pushed north mainly by wind, but it also gets the occasional boost from giant eddies that form in some parts of the ocean. Such eddies, which are large swirls of water spinning in a circle, are also known as mesoscale eddies, because of their size.

In this new effort, the researchers report evidence that shows stronger than normal cyclones increasing the strength of the eddies that push the current, resulting in a faster moving current and more warm water moving north. They further suggest that the stronger-than-normal cyclones are the result of global warming.

The team sought to understand why the Kuroshio current has maintained its speed over the past 30 years, despite a 30 percent decline in wind strength over the same period. They suspected that it had something to do with eddy activity. To find out if that was the case, the team analyzed data from satellites and from Argo ocean-based floats (they report salinity and water temperature periodically). It showed an increase in counter-clockwise spinning eddy strength related to local cyclonic activity, and a decrease in the strength of clockwise spinning eddies, which can slow the current.

They suggest that warmer ocean water in the higher latitudes could lead to accelerating warming in parts of the northern hemisphere.

(https://www.mdpi.com/remotesensing/remotesensing-11-00101/article_deploy/html/images/remotesensing-11-00101-g001.png)

(https://media.springernature.com/lw685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1186%2Fs40645-015-0045-6/MediaObjects/40645_2015_45_Fig1_HTML.gif)
https://progearthplanetsci.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40645-015-0045-6

Yu Zhang et al. Strengthening of the Kuroshio current by intensifying tropical cyclones, Science (2020)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aax5758
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on May 30, 2020, 01:35:59 AM
The CAG (Central American Gyre) may spawn the fourth tropical system in the Atlantic next week, the first official week of Atlantic hurricane season.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on June 01, 2020, 05:14:30 PM
The national hurricane center has given it an 80% chance of development.  Its movement is rather uncertain, as it could head northward toward the States, westward towards Mexico, or southward, back to the Pacific.  Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: grixm on June 01, 2020, 05:28:51 PM
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on June 01, 2020, 06:15:37 PM
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: grixm on June 01, 2020, 07:50:28 PM
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one.

I see, I was confused because storms that redevelop from remnants keep their earlier names, and storms that cross between the pacific to the atlantic also keep their names. IMO it seems inconsistent that both of these properties combined would suddenly mean it does not keep its name.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on June 01, 2020, 09:11:36 PM
Should it become a tropical storm, it would be called Cristobal.

Doesn't it keep its previous name from the EPAC?

No, once it makes landfall and loses its warm core tropical storm structure it is just considered a remnant. Plus it's going into the Atlantic side which has entirely different names, so in this instance it is given a new one.

I see, I was confused because storms that redevelop from remnants keep their earlier names, and storms that cross between the pacific to the atlantic also keep their names. IMO it seems inconsistent that both of these properties combined would suddenly mean it does not keep its name.

I agree with you that it would just make more sense to keep the same name. I suppose it would be confusing for some since the Atlantic side already had Arthur and Bertha.

Either way, soon to be tropical storm *C* is a massive area of low pressure. Not sure what to expect with this one, but this season is sure proving to have the energy in the system to facilitate some powerful storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 02, 2020, 04:26:24 PM
Another cyclone headed for India. This time from the Arabian Sea  tracking for landfall in Mumbai tomorrow. Winds will be close to a low end Cat 1.

https://www.theweek.in/news/india/2020/06/02/cyclone-nisarga-set-to-intensify-coastal-areas-on-alert.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 02, 2020, 11:32:26 PM
TS Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Richard Rathbone on June 02, 2020, 11:51:30 PM
That cone is within sharpie distance of Alabama!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on June 03, 2020, 12:36:15 AM
It could hit Alabama.  However, there is such a large uncertainty at the moment, that some forecast have the storm turning south into Mexico or dying out in the Bay of Campeche.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 03, 2020, 12:39:25 AM
TS Cristobal has duly formed in the Gulf of Mexico

It's hardly going anywhere for 3 days. Just going to sit there and dump rain on the same region in Mexico. ~ 20" forecast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 04, 2020, 07:11:17 PM
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 6/4/20, 10:55 AM
Here are the 10 am CDT June 4 Key Messages for Tropical Depression #Cristobal. There is a risk of storm surge, tropical storm force winds, and heavy rainfall for portions of the northern Gulf coast beginning this weekend. Visit hurricanes.gov for more info. 
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1268557099102949377
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 04, 2020, 08:36:16 PM
In a squeaker, Cristobal sets a record for earliest third named storm of the season. Local rain forecasts up to 30" now. i wouldn't trust a 5 day forecast on this thing at all given the major land interaction. Water in the gulf is 27-28C, about 2C shy of where it will be at peak season.

edit:not too often that hurricane season and melting season overlap, but the euro model shows cristobal interacting with another system after us landfall and maintaining impressive wind speed as it works it way all the way up to Hudson Bay with peak winds approaching 60 kts.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on June 05, 2020, 06:21:49 PM
Forecast appear to be converging around a landfall in Louisiana (west of New Orleans) late Sunday.  The major variability now is the winds; as the forecasts range from 35 (minimum for a tropical storm) to 60 mph.  What is interesting is the forecast acceleration northward towards Hudson Bay, to which Phoenix alluded.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on June 05, 2020, 07:42:48 PM
Forecast appear to be converging around a landfall in Louisiana (west of New Orleans) late Sunday.  The major variability now is the winds; as the forecasts range from 35 (minimum for a tropical storm) to 60 mph.  What is interesting is the forecast acceleration northward towards Hudson Bay, to which Phoenix alluded.
And after dumping much rain (& winds) over SE Hudson Bay (Jun 10), gets another lease of life and dumps a big rain (+snow) on South Greenland (Jun 14).
An interesting test for the new upgraded GFS weather forecast system.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 07, 2020, 02:17:06 PM
The gulf coast is catching a bit of a break with Christo's relatively rapid northward progression. The storm is starting to show some convection organized around a center, but it's going to run out of time to become something much more substantial.

https://i.imgur.com/6dZi0YA.jpg


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 07, 2020, 03:09:50 PM
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml

Quote
SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PASSING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA

LOCATION...28.2N 89.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: grixm on June 07, 2020, 03:28:51 PM
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml


How can it be forecast to stay tropical for so far inland despite not being that strong in the first place?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 07, 2020, 03:52:22 PM
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 6/6/20, 4:06 PM
Folks in Waveland, Mississippi preparing their vehicles ahead of Cristobal
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1269359945889337345
26 sec vid:  where do you put your car when you live in a rural area near the coast and significant storm surge is forecast but not enough to make you leave?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 07, 2020, 05:18:05 PM
Quote
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 6/7/20, 8:09 AM
Looking pretty likely that Lake Superior will see its first post-tropical cyclone on record this week. (Data back to 1851)
#Cristobal
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1269602383488864258
Image below: paths of other storms.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on June 07, 2020, 06:59:01 PM
Cristobal is approaching the Gulf coast:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/071151.shtml


How can it be forecast to stay tropical for so far inland despite not being that strong in the first place?
My guess is that until it gets that far north it will not meet weather to destroy its warm centre.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/071450.shtml?
A merger with an extratropical cyclone over the Great Lakes area is
expected by day 5.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-hermine-transition-impacts-forecast-post-tropical#:~:text=Hurricanes%20and%20tropical%20storms%20often,to%20a%20non%2Dtropical%20storm.
Tropical vs. Non-Tropical Cyclones
A tropical (or warm core) cyclone (area of low pressure) usually forms over warm waters in the tropics. Air rises rapidly around the edges of the center of the storm. Sinking air in the center of the storm heats up the air, so the storm has warm temperatures from the surface all the way up to high levels of the atmosphere. Hurricanes and tropical storms are (warm core) tropical cyclones.

At the surface, stronger winds are usually proximate to the storm's location and they diminish quickly when you move away from the storm.

A non-tropical (or cold core) storm has the coldest temperatures in the center of the storm. Temperatures cool as you move higher in the atmosphere and there is a trough at the highest levels. Unlike tropical (warm core) storms, winds are not as concentrated near the center of the storm, but can spread out for hundreds of miles from it.

Precipitation in a cold core (non-tropical cyclone) can also spread far away from the center of the storm. Most mid-latitude storms are cold core including nor'easters.

Tropical cyclones are nearly symmetric in shape and are without fronts. Mid-latitude (cold core) cyclones are comma shaped and have fronts associated with them.

Hurricanes and tropical storms often transition to cold core cyclones. When the National Hurricane Center concludes that a tropical storm has transitioned to a (cold core) mid-latitude storm it will designate it as "post-tropical" meaning that it has transitioned to a non-tropical storm.

The transition often occurs when a tropical cyclone moves to higher latitudes and interacts with atmospheric features that are more common there.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2020, 09:51:04 PM
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 6/6/20, 4:06 PM
Folks in Waveland, Mississippi preparing their vehicles ahead of Cristobal
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1269359945889337345
26 sec vid:  where do you put your car when you live in a rural area near the coast and significant storm surge is forecast but not enough to make you leave?

Image below from The Weather Channel:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 02:06:14 PM
Interesting article on heightened tropical wave activity originating in Africa this year.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-06-12-tropical-waves-atlantic-hurricane-season-june
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on June 15, 2020, 09:16:50 PM
For the tropical cyclone junkies.
Many of us read cat 6 blog during the US hurricane season .
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/eye-on-the-storm/
Quote

Welcome to “Eye on the Storm” …

The unexpected June 2020 announcement of what it correctly called the “end of an era” in the closing of Jeff Masters’ and Bob Henson’s Cat6 site sent shivers through the weather and associated climate change community. With Masters’ immediate continuation of his analyses via Yale Climate Connections – and Henson’s soon joining Masters as a regular YCC contributor – the beat goes on (also see YCC announcement).

Amid the challenges of the continuing global pandemic and in-progress changes to the YCC website, we’re working to implement the needed comments tools critical to ongoing engagement of Masters’ and Henson’s loyal followers. It can’t happen overnight, but we are working diligently toward that end.

Yale Climate Connections welcomes all Cat6 and new followers to this emerging effort. Sign up to receive email updates on progress toward the full blog launch.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on June 15, 2020, 10:05:48 PM
NOAA list the following as the most intense Atlantic hurricane seasons on record (since 1850) in order:  1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, 1995, 2004, 2017, 1950, 1961, 1998.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/comparison_table.html

1933:  first TS formed on May 14 in the Gulf, the second formed from a tropical wave on June 25 and became the first hurricane of the season.
2005:  TS one formed on June 8 and TS two on June 28, both in the Gulf.
1893:  One TS formed in the Gulf on June 12.
1926:  No storms were recorded until the Great Bahamas hurricane (cat. 4) on July 22.
1995:  One hurricane formed from a tropical wave on June 2.
2004:  No storms until July 31
2017:  The first TS formed on April 16, the second and third on June 19 and 20, both from waves.
1950:  No storms until August 12
1961:  First storm formed on July 21, reaching Cat. 2 hurricane.  The second storm did not form until September.
1998:  The first tropical storm formed from a tropical wave on July 27.

In two of the 10 most intense hurricane seasons, a tropical storm formed before June 1, the official start of hurricane season.  Three years saw the first storm form in June.  In four years, the first storm formed in July, and in one year, the first storm formed in August.  In only one of those ten years (2005) did three tropical storms from before July.  The early start to the hurricane season this year, may not be an indicator of the intensity of the season.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 16, 2020, 04:02:05 AM
When politics decides the weather.

Independent panel finds NOAA leadership violated code of ethics in "Sharpiegate"
Quote
An independent panel commissioned by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that two top officials violated the agency’s code of ethics during a series of events that led to an NOAA statement contradicting its own meteorologists to support President Trump’s false claims about the path of Hurricane Dorian.

Why it matters: The September episode, which came to be known as "Sharpiegate" after Trump drew on a map of Hurricane Dorian's path to support his assessment that it could hit Alabama, embroiled the NOAA in a scandal about possible political interference within the scientific agency. ...
https://www.axios.com/noaa-sharpiegate-investigation-74d5f6c6-7004-4cb1-bd94-4d22a7942f1e.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 21, 2020, 05:17:47 PM
While we have relative quiet in the northern hemisphere tropical cyclone season with the sahara dust storm moving through the atlantic basin, let's take a look at how ocean temperatures are evolving.

The Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican are currently running around 29C, plenty of heat for a big storm.

The waters around Cuba are the warmest in the region at ~ 30C. A storm coming in just north of Cuba could be ripe for intensification and hurt the Bahamas or S. Florida.

Most of the Gulf of Mexico is at 27.5-28C which is kinda average for this time of year. Not yet at a temperature likely to promote extreme rapid intensification. Similar or slightly temperatures exist along the Atlantic coast from mid-Florida up to NC. The current setup wouldn't support a storm like Florence coming in to the Carolina's from due east.

The Eastern Pacific is running around 30C raising the possibility of a storm impacting Mexico.

On the Pacific side, the waters east of the Philippines are already at 30C. Further north, east of Japan the ocean temps are only ~ 25C.

For reference, Amphan intensified over 31C waters last month in the Bay of Bengal.

More potential warming to come with the arrival of summer.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on June 29, 2020, 02:54:35 PM
Most of the Gulf of Mexico is at 27.5-28C which is kinda average for this time of year. Not yet at a temperature likely to promote extreme rapid intensification. Similar temperatures exist along the Atlantic coast from mid-Florida up to NC.


My Florida peeps have been complaining about the heat and the local waters are reflecting that. The Eastern third of the Gulf has increased by 1C+ in the last week. There is now a 30C path from the western Dominican Republic to Tampa Bay.

The Gulfstream is also warming considerably on the east coast. Any storm near Florida would have plenty of heat to work with.

Some small disturbances with low probability of development are about. Nothing noteworthy at this point. The drying impact of the Saharan dust should be abating.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 04, 2020, 08:01:19 PM
Tropical Depression Five spins up in the Atlantic. Not much expected from this one.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/041451.shtml

CDAS El Nino index is now at dead neutral.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png

Heat is continuing to build in the Atlantic Basin. Some hot spots in the Bahamas and SW Florida coast are in the 31-32C range. The runway is ready.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 05, 2020, 07:23:01 PM
Another something to keep an eye. Some activity in the Gulf which may hop over the SE US and turn into something near the Carolina coast.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The
system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge
offshore of the Carolinas later this week,
where environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 07, 2020, 02:20:22 AM
Lot's of action popping up in the East Pacific. Most noteworthy is Depression 5E which is forecast to peak at a Cat 2 hurricane in 3 days before moving NW into cooler waters. No land impacts anticipated.

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the
low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better
organized since this morning.  ASCAT data from earlier this
afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat
elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that
the circulation has become better defined.  The scatterometer data
also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with
higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical
depression at this time.

The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting
of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a
moist atmosphere.  As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated
over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN
and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance.  Given
the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a
period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity
forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to
move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause
weakening by the end of the period. 


Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being
steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge
located over the south-central United States. A general
west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is
expected over the next several days.  The dynamical model guidance
is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/2100Z 10.5N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 07, 2020, 11:57:14 PM







Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

The moderate vertical wind shear  over the system is forecast to abate over the next 12-24 hours. 
This, along with SSTs of 28-29C, should allow for strengthening and Cristina is still forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two. Although Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated over the past 24 hours, with the more favorable atmospheric conditions anticipated beginning Wednesday, a period of steady to rapid strengthening is still possible.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/072033.shtml

Comment: Not a storm likely to impact anyone, but potentially a good benchmark in terms of what we might expect from a storm over 28-29C water and low shear.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 09, 2020, 01:09:50 AM
Another something to keep an eye. Some activity in the Gulf which may hop over the SE US and turn into something near the Carolina coast.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located along the northern Gulf Coast
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some
slight development of this system is possible before the disturbance
moves onshore along the northeastern Gulf Coast on Monday. The
system is then forecast to move northeastward and could emerge
offshore of the Carolinas later this week,
where environmental
conditions are expected to be more conducive for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

This weather system has in fact hopped over to the Atlantic coast and is to a 70% chance of development into a tropical system. It should cruise by the coast off of DC in a few days.

Someday a big storm is going to cruise into the Chesapeake Bay and say hello to the politicians who are establishing climate policy.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on July 10, 2020, 01:15:11 AM
https://youtu.be/XM4n1XTrhiM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/07/09/tropical-storm-fay-forms-will-bring-heavy-rains-to-mid-atlantic-and-new-england-friday-saturday/

Fay formed extremely close to land (similar to fellow freak Tropical Storm Bertha in late May), and its outer bands of rain are already near the North Carolina and Virginia coast. Hurricane Hunter aircraft observed winds around 45 mph, a bit above tropical storm strength. Warmer than normal ocean temperatures—a hallmark of climate change—along the Eastern Seaboard could help add fuel to Fay, though the storm is forecast to stay at tropical storm strength.

Things will deteriorate as the storm climbs the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night into Friday and then makes landfall somewhere that is likely to be between New Jersey and Connecticut late on Saturday. Up to five inches of rain could fall and heavy downpours are possible. Flash flood watches are in effect from Virginia to Massachusetts. The storm will also bring rain to northern New England and Canada even as it weakens into a tropical depression. Oh, and you can expect a wave of swampy humidity to pour into the region already dealing with a stifling heat wave in an added bonus for anyone who wants to know what it’s like to live in an armpit.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062020_key_messages+png/220704_key_messages_sm.png)

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062020_wind_probs_34_F120+png/220704.png)

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT06/refresh/AL062020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/220704_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)

This is going to mess with my garden [direct-hit]. My corn [maize] is shoulder-high. I am not amused  >:(
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 10, 2020, 02:19:22 AM
Fay sets the record for the earliest sixth named atlantic storm formation, breaking Franklin from 2005, which formed on July 21. The earliest G storm is is Gert, which formed on July 24, 2005.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 16, 2020, 05:17:07 PM
Regardless, we are experiencing one of the quietest seasons with regards to hurricanes in the Western hemisphere.  Typically, the first hurricane forms around mid June.  Currently, this is the fourth latest start in recorded history.  In fact, the entire pacific basin is well below average. 

While it is still early, this year has been unusually quiet.  Globally, we are down about 50% - and that includes an extremely active North Indian ocean basin.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 16, 2020, 06:47:56 PM
The SST's in the gulf are now more equally balanced with close to 30C across the board. Plenty of energy and no shortage of climate deniers in the bullseye.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 16, 2020, 06:58:57 PM
Regardless, we are experiencing one of the quietest seasons with regards to hurricanes in the Western hemisphere.  Typically, the first hurricane forms around mid June.  Currently, this is the fourth latest start in recorded history.  In fact, the entire pacific basin is well below average. 

While it is still early, this year has been unusually quiet.  Globally, we are down about 50% - and that includes an extremely active North Indian ocean basin.
I read, maybe on wundergroundnews, that the periodic large dust clouds from the Sahara to the Caribbean & the south of the US tend to inhibit formation of tropical storms, and there have been several events this year.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 16, 2020, 07:10:02 PM
Regardless, we are experiencing one of the quietest seasons with regards to hurricanes in the Western hemisphere.  Typically, the first hurricane forms around mid June.  Currently, this is the fourth latest start in recorded history.  In fact, the entire pacific basin is well below average. 

While it is still early, this year has been unusually quiet.  Globally, we are down about 50% - and that includes an extremely active North Indian ocean basin.
I read, maybe on wundergroundnews, that the periodic large dust clouds from the Sahara to the Caribbean & the south of the US tend to inhibit formation of tropical storms, and there have been several events this year.

That may inhibit future Atlantic storms.  That Atlantic has been above average thus far.  The Pacific has been well below, dragging the global average downward.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 16, 2020, 10:30:31 PM
Dust storms are a genuine inhibitor. Thunderstorm activity around the 10N line in Central Africa is picking up though and bringing moisture to the runway. Don't bet against 2020 in the mayhem department.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 17, 2020, 09:41:51 AM
While we wait, here's a pretty cool clip from inside Dorian last year from storm chaser Josh Morgerman.

The most intense parts are from minutes 10-14 in the clip if you don't want to watch the whole thing. That's eyewall with 290 kph sustained winds and gusts over 300.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DV-PLJq4HD4

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Phoenix on July 19, 2020, 09:34:26 AM
Something is headed for the gulf....we're getting closer to show time.

                                                                                                                                   
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over eastern Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across
the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday.
This disturbance is currently producing only minimal
shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become
at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 20, 2020, 02:43:57 PM
Looks to be just a big rainmaker for the gulf coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 20, 2020, 03:29:54 PM
I agree.  From NOAA (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php).  A third 'possibility' is crossing the Atlantic.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on July 20, 2020, 04:28:28 PM
There is quite a bit of energy out there for the system to work with:

http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on July 20, 2020, 04:31:46 PM
This graph, from the same source as the above post, shows the OHC in a bigger view.  Any system coming off Africa has a long runway of energy to use.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 22, 2020, 01:25:00 AM
Any system coming off Africa has a long runway of energy to use.

Quote
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Seven, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

Wind shear in the current forecast however.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on July 22, 2020, 05:37:58 PM
Gonzalo is here and I suspect the "X" in the Gulf of Mexico will become Hanna.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FishOutofWater on July 22, 2020, 06:33:15 PM
Levi Cowan's video blog on the Atlantic  tropical systems last night was excellent. In July the Saharal air layer (SAL) is generally intense and the flow above the 850 layer is often quite rapid. That hot dry air aloft disrupts tropical development, but if a tropical storm can intensify while still in the moist tropical air of the ITCZ - the tropical convergence zone, it can generate it's own envelope of warm humid air that acts as a shield from mid level dry air intrusion.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 22, 2020, 11:23:39 PM
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Levi's Blog
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 23, 2020, 11:27:55 PM
Hurricane Douglas to give Hawaii a bit of a pasting. This is an unusual occurence.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/232042.shtml?
Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
 96H  27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on July 24, 2020, 04:19:54 PM
Now we have Hanna, with another system near Africa likely to get named in a few days.   

And it is still July!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 24, 2020, 05:56:32 PM
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years. This is unusual, making it the 6th notable event since 1950. Climate change?

Notable hurricanes in Hawaii

Hurricane Nina (1957): The category one hurricane formed south of Hawaii. Hurricane Nina continued to move north when it took a sharp turn to the west towards the Island chain. The hurricane did not actually hit land. At its closest approach, Nina was centered about 120 miles west-southwest of Kauai, but still created notable damage and dropped over 20 inches of rain. Oahu was also strongly affected by the storm, with moderate rains and 45 MPH winds.

Hurricane Dot (1959): This category four hurricane entered the south Pacific just south of Hawaii. Moving west-northwest on August 5 of that year, Dot abruptly changed directions and began traveling northwest towards Kauai. When Dot passed over Kauai on August 6, it had been downgraded to a category one storm, but still packed wind gusts over 100 MPH. The storm caused minor damage to Hawaii, Oahu and Kauai.

Hurricane Iwa (1982): At the time, this category one hurricane was the most damaging to hit Hawaii. It passed just west of Kauai, causing severe property damage, minor physical injuries and one death. Up to $250 million dollars in damage was created.

Hurricane Iniki (1992): This category four hurricane was the most devastating hurricane to hit Hawaii. Borne from El Nino, Iniki traveled on a west-northwest course and continued to strengthen. On September 11, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Kauai, devastating the island. It caused over $1.8 billion in damage, and was responsible for six deaths.

And...
Hurricane Lane (2018)was a powerful tropical cyclone that brought torrential rainfall and strong winds to Hawaii during late August 2018. The storm was the wettest on record in Hawaii, with peak rainfall accumulations of 58 in (1,473 mm) along the eastern slopes of Mauna Loa
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 24, 2020, 06:38:23 PM
With so few numbers it is hard to establish any sort of trend.  Tropical cyclone movement over the middle of the Pacific is quite random, and direct hit compared to a near (or total) miss is subject to arbitrary movements.  Records are also sparse prior to 1950, so it is rather difficult to ascribe any effect due to climate change.  The only recorded hurricanes to directly hit the islands, listed by strength/damage occurred in 1992 (iniki), 1871 (unnamed cat. 3), 1982 (Iwa), and 1959 (Dot).  Several others made near misses, including Lane in 2018, Hiki in 1950, Jimina in 2003, and Iselle in 2014.  Too little data to make any meaningful assertion.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on July 24, 2020, 07:30:56 PM
Please see the study referenced in this article:

https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/tropical-storm-gonzalo-heads-for-windward-islands/

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 24, 2020, 07:51:25 PM
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawaiʻi yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 24, 2020, 08:03:13 PM
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: wdmn on July 25, 2020, 05:32:07 AM
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 25, 2020, 08:29:38 PM
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas.

Moving pictures of the Texas storm surge:

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1287016782574886913
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: morganism on July 25, 2020, 08:51:14 PM
Excellent TX weather forcaster

https://spacecityweather.com/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 25, 2020, 11:04:58 PM
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.
Latest update from NHC.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
late tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.1N 148.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.6N 153.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 21.4N 156.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.1N 159.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 22.7N 162.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 23.2N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 24.1N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 25.3N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 27, 2020, 10:01:49 PM
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2020, 01:57:14 PM
Eric Fisher: "[U.S] East coast water is notably warmer than average for this time of year thanks to the hot July. Particularly here in New England.”
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1287846261438271488
Image below.

Dan Satterfield: "This means trouble for any tropical cyclones coming up the coast in the next 8 weeks..."
https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1287855286703788041
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on July 28, 2020, 04:46:01 PM
Not a storm - yet..

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Maybe one day Trump will get that inhabitants of Puerto Rico are US Ctiizens
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2020, 06:05:43 PM
Quote
Jamie Groh (@AlteredJamie) 7/28/20, 11:30 AM
Looks like Florida could be in for a tropical storm this weekend - the exact same time frame that @Astro_Doug & @AstroBehnken are scheduled to splash down concluding the #SpaceX #CrewDragon #Demo2 mission.

However, still lots of uncertainty of development & in forecast track.
https://twitter.com/alteredjamie/status/1288134804622512128


NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) 7/28/20, 11:15 AM

An [area] of disturbed weather (currently east of the Windward Islands) is being monitored for potential storm development. Please be mindful that there is much uncertainty in the forecast, especially further in the forecast period. Have a plan regardless of the forecast track! #flwx
https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1288130963260633088
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 29, 2020, 01:34:27 PM
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.

We can add that to the list of near misses for the islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 29, 2020, 06:41:30 PM
The "official" track of PTC 9 now puts 'me' just beyond the end of the center line - so about 6 days out.   I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some.  By the way, the Navy site (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?ACTIVES=20-EPAC-08E.DOUGLAS,20-ATL-09L.NINE,20-WPAC-90W.INVEST,20-WPAC-91W.INVEST&SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=al&ATCF_YR=2020&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2020/al092020.20072900.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2020/al092020.20072900.gif&CURRENT=20200729.1500.goes16.x.vis1km_high.09LNINE.40kts-1005mb-156N-628W.100pc.jpg&CURRENT_ATCF=al092020.20072900.gif&ATCF_NAME=al092020&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2020&AGE=Latest&MO=JUL&BASIN=ATL&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2020&YR=20&STORM_NAME=09L.NINE&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc20/ATL/09L.NINE/vis/geo/1km_zoom&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif) has a wonderful graphic which shows, among other things, how lopsided the wind field will be. (click to enlarge)
(https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/image_archives/2020/al092020.20072900.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Richard Rathbone on July 30, 2020, 09:37:40 AM
I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some. 

See lat night's tropical tidbits video for a discussion of this. Its because the circulation is large and disorganised and a lot of it stays over water either because it stays large compared to Hispaniola, or if it organises and shrinks, there'll probably be a jog to the north of Hispaniola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on July 30, 2020, 04:51:09 PM
Yes, the course of the storm will have a huge impact on how it emerges on the other side of the island.  If it traverses directly over the island, it will get "torn to shreds."  However, if the center of circulation stays to the north of the island, it will likely experience some weakening, but strengthen again once it passes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 02, 2020, 08:29:14 PM
Eye of the storm blog is finally up and running for those who formally watched Category six.
 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/updates-on-hurricane-isaias-from-eye-on-the-storm/

Forecast for Isaias
Quote
Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 07, 2020, 11:56:53 PM
US Hurricane Experts Predict 'Extremely Active' Storm Season
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/07/hurricane-experts-noaa-storm-season
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/updated-hurricane-season-outlooks-expect-plenty-more-storms/

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there could be up to 25 storms which have sustained winds of 39mph or greater. Storms which hit this threshold are named by the agency.

Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the combined intensity and duration of all storms during the season is predicted to be much higher than the threshold for an “extremely active” season.

“We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,” Bell said in a press briefing. “So this is the first time.”

The previous high was in 2005, when the agency predicted a maximum of 21 named storms.

Of the 25 possible named storms, NOAA estimates seven to 11 could become hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74mph. The agency also forecast that three to six storms could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111mph or more.

The increase in predicted hurricanes is attributed to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, combined with the wind conditions.

----------------------------------------------

Researchers Find Link Between Atlantic Hurricanes and Weather System in East Asia
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-link-atlantic-hurricanes-weather-east.html

Researchers led by the University of Iowa have identified a connection between a climate system in East Asia and the frequency of tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic Ocean—which can strengthen into hurricanes that threaten the United States.

In a new study, the researchers say the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) an upper-level river of wind that originates in East Asia and moves west to east across the globe, carries with it an atmospheric phenomenon called a Rossby wave.

Rossby waves occur naturally within the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, forming because of the planet's rotation. The researchers say Rossby waves hitch a ride on the EASJ to the North Atlantic when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are most likely to form. The waves affect wind shear, a key element in the formation of tropical storms.

"When the EASJ is stronger, it can enhance this pattern, which leads to stronger teleconnections and stronger wind shear in the North Atlantic," explains says Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at Iowa. "That can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone formation."

"These jets act as a conduit for the signal originating in Asia, so it can propagate over the Atlantic."

The scientists observed nearly 40 years of Atlantic tropical cyclones during prime formation season, from August to November, and their connection during the same time period with EASJ activity between July to October.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/75-researchersf.jpg)

Wei Zhang et al, The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL088851

-----------------------------------------------

On a personal note.

TS Isaias did a number on my state (Connecticut). Over 750, 000 customers - 2 million people - without power. 44 major roads within 10 miles are blocked by downed trees and powerlines. Don't expect full recovery till next Tuesday.

Most microwave repeater towers failed because of lack of auxiliary power. No phone or internet for last 72 hrs. Coverage still spotty.

12 hrs before the storm hit local weather services predicted 20-40 mph winds. Actually hit with 60-80 mph winds and multiple tornadoes.

Since 2011 (last hurricane) utilities have added a surcharge to the bill to pay for 'hardening' the infrastructure from extreme weather (tree branch removal near wires). Apparently that all went to executive bonuses because the infrastructure failed worse than the last hurricane.And anybody working from home because of COVID-19 is screwed out of a weeks pay.

I am not amused.  >:(

(https://www.courant.com/resizer/Zd06W2wV0azJN6aLY4NHL69E4hQ=/1200x0/top/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/tronc/63RUJY7EJBCNNLSNPVZRYB2C74.jpg)

(https://patch.com/img/cdn20/users/22824890/20200806/075324/styles/raw/public/processed_images/image1%20(1).jpeg)
Local road

On a positive note. I tied the corn (maize) in my garden to the wire fence they were growing next to with bungee cords. They all survived. So I'll have 3 dozen ears of sweet corn in a week or two.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM
Andrew Freedman on Twitter: "[THREAD] Why the new NOAA hurricane seasonal outlook is so dire.
Note: We've already had a record 9 named storms so far. Typically, the ninth-named storm forms in early Oct. It's early August. After the 21st named storm, we go into the Greek alphabet.
[WaPo article at the link.]
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1291420697533661184
"Sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic, along East Coast, and in Caribbean are well above avg. (in some cases record warm). That's fuel ready and waiting for storms to tap into. 2/
“A developing La Nina event in the tropical Pacific may lead to reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, making it a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes. 3/
"An unusually active West African Monsoon season is bringing more thunderstorms off the west coast of Africa, which can then organize into tropical cyclones. 4/
"Weaker than average Atlantic trade winds favor more storm development. 5/
"We're in an "active" phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which favors more active hurricane seasons. This cycle began in 1995. 6/
"Climate change is driving ocean temperatures up, and leading to wetter, more intense hurricanes. It's also increasing the chances for storms to rapidly intensify. But it's not leading to more storms overall, based on studies to date. 7/
"Lastly, and NOAA didn't mention this, but, it's 2020. So..."
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 13, 2020, 07:09:35 PM
Earliest J storm on record (previous was August 22nd, 2005).  Luckily, the models are predicting minimal impact to land.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 13, 2020, 07:28:58 PM
While the north Atlantic has been quite active, the Pacific has been noticeably quiet.  Consequently, the global season has been on the low side.

http://climatlas.com/tropical/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 13, 2020, 08:19:10 PM
(https://redgreenandblue.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/tom-toles-climate-change-debate-compromise.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: kassy on August 13, 2020, 08:25:48 PM
Possibly better here since it is not related to the topic per se (and the target topic could use a boost  ;) ):

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1197.msg280867.html#new
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 13, 2020, 08:33:15 PM
It's on topic and a reply to https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2984.msg280985.html#msg280985
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 14, 2020, 07:17:04 AM
It's a good one vox. I got it. A silent and non-violent protest :).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 17, 2020, 04:20:22 AM
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 8/16/20, 8:12 PM
All elements -- late August climatology, large-scale 2020 seasonal factors, intraseasonal ones, the steering flow, and these robust African easterly waves -- are aligning for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to soon escalate quickly. 
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1295151500713484290
Satellite gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 17, 2020, 07:04:09 PM
Need I say more?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 17, 2020, 10:38:21 PM
Wait an hour and see what happens! 
And is the orange one gonna get me?  :'(
For that matter, is the red one gonna get me?  :'( :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 18, 2020, 06:35:19 AM
That's still quite far out Tor but I wish that you stay safe.
Archimid seems to get into trouble from the red cross. Direct path over Puerto Rico at >60% chance. Not funny at all.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2020, 10:30:13 AM
There seems to be a conveyor belt in operation at the moment:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Paddy on August 19, 2020, 11:11:27 AM
I saw a Netflix documentary [Connected, episode 2] recently that claimed that dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development, as well as helping fertilise the Amazon rainforest, and unfortunately helping cause algal blooms off the coast of the USA.

One thing the documentary, and a few articles that I've skimmed on the subject since e.g. this blog (https://www.air-worldwide.com/blog/posts/2019/8/can-saharan-dust-really-impact-atlantic-hurricanes/)  did not flag up is that the Sahara is growing.  Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  Or is the degree of expansion (10% between 1920 and 2013 (https://earthsky.org/earth/sahara-desert-is-expanding)) pretty negligible in the overall picture?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 19, 2020, 02:01:31 PM
There seems to be a conveyor belt in operation at the moment:

IIRC 05' had a number of 'Cape Verde' storms of which 3 saw early 'recurves' up the coast of Africa and threatening ther Med/NW Europe?

I wonder if this year will see similar 'recurves' if the tropical wave 'conveyor belt' continues into September?

Interesting times ahead!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 19, 2020, 10:18:16 PM
... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,...

... Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  ...
From years of reading the now defunct Cat 6 blog (and it's predecessors), Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.  There is some seasonality to the dust storms, so its effects wax and wain.

I don't know about the dust to Amazon connection, as most dust that I've 'watched' in too far north - dust regularly reaches the Caribbean, and a couple times this year noticeably reached Texas and the US South (where I live).

The Tropical Tidbits post of 2 days ago (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/08/17/watching-two-potential-storms-this-week/) talked some about Saharan dust, as I recall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Darvince on August 20, 2020, 04:47:12 AM
I would not be surprised to see the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measure on record for this season in the north Atlantic. It seems to me like the basin is as favorable as the big name years like 2005 and 1933, and we look to have a near-record active September based on the medium-term indicators.

Much worse impacts than a highly active western Pacific season, IMO, because we get less cyclones normally and so many more people here live in shacks and detached homes versus sturdy apartment blocks...

Good source to look at for where tropical cyclones will form: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 20, 2020, 11:29:25 AM
Saharan dust (not the dust in Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials")

... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,.......

........ Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.....................

..... dust regularly reaches the Caribbean......
Extract from NHC Discussion on TD13...
Quote
Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to
moderate shear during forecast period.  However, the guidance
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions.  The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h.  On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h.  The UKMET and Canadian
models are between these extremes.  The weak GFS solution appears
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the
cyclone. 
Between these factors and the possibility of land
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 20, 2020, 03:01:30 PM
13 is unlucky for some? Tor seems to be in its sights!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 20, 2020, 03:13:47 PM
I would not be surprised to see the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measure on record for this season in the north Atlantic. It seems to me like the basin is as favorable as the big name years like 2005 and 1933, and we look to have a near-record active September based on the medium-term indicators.

Much worse impacts than a highly active western Pacific season, IMO, because we get less cyclones normally and so many more people here live in shacks and detached homes versus sturdy apartment blocks...

Good source to look at for where tropical cyclones will form: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

It looks as if we will experience a similar number of storms as the extraordinary years of 1933 and 2005, and possibly exceed those years.  As of yet, the ACE is much lower due to the lack of hurricanes, especially major hurricanes. 

By this date in 2005, there were two fewer storms, but two more hurricanes, and they both became majors (Dennis and Emily).  Additionally, another tropical depression had been lingering over the Bahamas, which eventually was named Katrina. 

1933 got off to a much later start, with only seven named storms by this date, although one reached major hurricane status.  The eighth storm was just starting to form off the coast of Africa which would become one of two strongest and deadliest of the season. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 20, 2020, 05:27:06 PM
Archimid, it would be interesting to hear from you as the tropical cyclone approaches Puerto Rico.
Luckily it seems to veer to the north a bit.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 20, 2020, 05:29:26 PM
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!  :-\
(Being 30 km off the leading end of the cone [pictured below {TD13}], however, is not comforting!)

I see 97L has become TD14.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 20, 2020, 05:59:17 PM
I see 97L has become TD14.

Sure has. Unlucky for Mexico and Texas?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 20, 2020, 06:12:05 PM
... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,...

... Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  ...
From years of reading the now defunct Cat 6 blog (and it's predecessors), Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.  There is some seasonality to the dust storms, so its effects wax and wain.

I don't know about the dust to Amazon connection, as most dust that I've 'watched' in too far north - dust regularly reaches the Caribbean, and a couple times this year noticeably reached Texas and the US South (where I live).

The Tropical Tidbits post of 2 days ago (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/08/17/watching-two-potential-storms-this-week/) talked some about Saharan dust, as I recall.
Further to Paddy's question, my wife asked me to got to Mike's Weather Page (https://spaghettimodels.com/) (a hurricane may be barreling toward us next Wednesday) and right there on the left column was Saharan Air Layer Forecast (https://www.myfoxhurricane.com/saharan_dust_car.html).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 21, 2020, 07:56:39 AM
EYE ON THE STORM
Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggestAnd U.S. Gulf Coast residents should monitor a second tropical depression that could strengthen to a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 20, 2020
Quote
Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13), which formed in the central Atlantic on the evening of Wednesday, August 19, poses a threat as a tropical storm this weekend to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. TD 13 could affect the Bahamas and Florida as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A Tropical Storm Watch was up for most of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, TD 13 was located about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and headed west-northwest at 21 mph. Conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of about 5 knots. However, the system had moved into a drier region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite images showed TD 13 with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity slowly growing in organization and areal coverage.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 21, 2020, 09:19:43 AM
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Rodius on August 21, 2020, 12:37:07 PM
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?

Is that two hurricanes about to collide?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 21, 2020, 01:18:53 PM
Is that two hurricanes about to collide?

On the current tracks they aren't going to collide, but they are forecast to make landfall in the lower 48 at almost exactly the same time.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 21, 2020, 01:37:50 PM
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?

Is that two hurricanes about to collide?
Quote from NHC

Quote
I think it's worth noting that
both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing
some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems
are situated in the Gulf of Mexico.  If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression
Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 21, 2020, 04:18:55 PM
EYE ON THE STORM
Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggestAnd U.S. Gulf Coast residents should monitor a second tropical depression that could strengthen to a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 20, 2020
Quote
Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13), which formed in the central Atlantic on the evening of Wednesday, August 19, poses a threat as a tropical storm this weekend to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. TD 13 could affect the Bahamas and Florida as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A Tropical Storm Watch was up for most of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, TD 13 was located about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and headed west-northwest at 21 mph. Conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of about 5 knots. However, the system had moved into a drier region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite images showed TD 13 with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity slowly growing in organization and areal coverage.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/

This is not forecast to become a major hurricane.  Both the GFS and European models have this storm degenerating into a tropical depression as it interacts with land.  In fact, it is only forecast to become a hurricane, if its center remains in the straights between Florida and Cuba, allowing it to strengthen in to a minimal hurricane.  In that scenario, it would miss Florida altogether and make landfall near Mobile.

http://www.brevardtimes.com/2020/08/noaa-tropical-storm-laura-track-spaghetti-models/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 21, 2020, 04:54:58 PM
A collage.  I'm in a cone, but no longer near its center.  Hurricane Michael (Cat 5) was much closer.  But this is 5 days out.   

Edit:  The 11 o'clock update has (just named) Laura as a hurricane on Wednesday landfall.  I am just barely inside the cone now.  Both storms are shoved westward ~50 km on day 5 (compared to earlier this morning).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 21, 2020, 05:38:10 PM
Those cones look like the legs of a transparent woman with high socks on. And a humongous monster that's surreptitiously trying to bite her cones legs from behind and below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 22, 2020, 05:03:39 AM
Then there was Marco (former TD 14); NHC thinks it will be only a tropical storm. 

Meanwhile, Laura is projected to make landfall in Louisiana.  I am no longer in the cone, but will continue paying attention.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 22, 2020, 09:28:39 AM
I am no longer in the cone, but will continue paying attention.

I imagine Archimid will be paying very close attention to Laura though?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 22, 2020, 01:50:34 PM
The current trajectory has Laura moving directly over the greater Antilles.  This will likely result in a big rain maker, but inhibit any strengthening.  At this time, it is entirely possible that the storm could be torn apart before it ever reaches the Gulf. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 23, 2020, 01:18:09 AM
Quite bizarre! Laura (currently west of Puerto Rico) and Marco (west of Cuba) [click to run]
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: wili on August 23, 2020, 01:36:09 AM
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 23, 2020, 01:52:19 AM
Tropical Storm Laura could intensify to major hurricane status on approach to U.S. Gulf CoastBy Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Aug 22, 2020
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/tropical-storm-laura-could-intensify-to-major-hurricane-status-on-approach-to-u-s-gulf-coast/

Will Laura and Marco perform a Fujiwara dance in the Gulf of Mexico?
Quote
When two tropical cyclones approach within about 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate counter-clockwise around a common center, then go their separate ways, in a process called the Fujiwara effect. In rare cases they may merge into one storm, but the resulting storm will not be stronger than either of the original two storms, since wind shear from each weakens the other.

More commonly, when two storms interact, one will weaken or destroy the other with its wind shear, just as Hurricane Wilma did to Tropical Storm Alpha in 2005. The Saturday morning model runs showed limited support for a Fujiwara interaction between Marco and Laura.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 23, 2020, 03:33:15 AM
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 23, 2020, 04:30:49 AM
re:  The Fujiwhara Effect

There is a brief mention about the possibility in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/08/21/laura-still-weak-but-could-strengthen-later-td14-expected-to-hit-mexico-as-a-tropical-storm/) starting about 16:40.  Because Marco is moving faster than previously forecast (today's post (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/)), they will likely remain far apart and not affect each other in this way.

Because the two storms are forecast to cross paths, Marco will cool the surface waters some, which will mean Laura will have a little less heat to work with.  On the other two hands ( :) ), Marco is traveling to beat the band so won't cool the water a great deal and the Gulf of Mexico often has a lot of deep heat (or words to that effect), so there is heat to spare.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: sidd on August 23, 2020, 05:56:17 AM
I fear for New Orleans, again.

sidd
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 23, 2020, 04:00:11 PM
So next week could see only the 3rd time 2 name storms were in the GOM at the same time (since 1851?) ?

I also worry about the impacts on that northern coast of the G.O.M. should Laura find the waters unmolested by Marco's passing?

We have seen, this past decade, just how fast storms can 'Bomb' these days and we have the remembrance of what Katrina did from Aug 23rd in 05'.....

I feel this is definitely one to watch esp. in these days of Covid.....
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 23, 2020, 10:40:04 PM
Marco is officially a hurricane:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 23, 2020, 11:03:52 PM
Will be interesting (and nerve racking!) to see how much Laura intensifies.   Dr Masters indicates a Cat 3 or 4 is not out of the realm of possibility.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#13L
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 23, 2020, 11:06:28 PM
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.

The idea of two storms merging to create a "megastorm" is a bit hard to believe.  The shear created by each storm weakens the other storm.  Dr Masters mentions this in one of his posts on YCC.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 24, 2020, 01:47:58 AM
Hurricane Laura

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020082318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_14.png)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020082318&fh=6

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Laura to reach 105 mph Category 2 intensity on Wednesday over the Gulf of Mexico.

However, there is a chance that Laura may attain major hurricane status as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, the tropical system set to be located in an environment favorable for rapid intensification due to the unusually warm ocean waters combined with weak upper-level winds.

Laura is not only likely to be a more intense storm than Marco at landfall, but also substantially larger, bringing impacts over a much broader area.

Laura is something to watch even for residents of Houston in case the track continues shifting westward.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/23/hurricane-double-threat-gulf/?outputType=amp

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-marco-forms-in-gulf-of-mexico-ts-laura-a-formidable-threat-to-u-s/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 24, 2020, 05:30:11 AM
Marco has weakened, and is now back to tropical storm force. Nonetheless:

Quote
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 24, 2020, 06:07:25 AM
(https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/0820_Fig3_laura-coamps-2020082306.gif)
Quote
The 6Z Sunday, August 23, forecast of the COAMPS-TC model, which made the best 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day intensity forecasts of any model in 2019, predicted Laura would traverse Cuba, reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico, and peak as a category 3 hurricane shortly before landfall Wednesday night in Louisiana. The COAMPS-TC was the third-best track model in 2019, behind the European model and UKMET model. (Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory)

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-marco-forms-in-gulf-of-mexico-ts-laura-a-formidable-threat-to-u-s/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 24, 2020, 08:55:20 AM
Dear Archimid, were you on Puerto Rico when "Laura" went by?
If so, could you please tell us about any damage, notable events, differences from last time?

Good recent overview:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/22/tropical-storm-laura-marco-path-gulf-mexico-hurricane-status/3418693001/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 24, 2020, 02:32:47 PM
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, typhoon Bavi looks like it will sideswipe the Korean Peninsula
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on August 24, 2020, 04:37:57 PM
Tropical Storm (soon-to-be-hurricane) Laura is moving at a hefty 21 mph.  At that speed, intensification beyond a category 2 is unlikely, especially if it approaches Marco near landfall.  Should Laura slow considerable and spent more time over the warm Gulf waters, then it could intensify into a cat. 3 storm. 
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 24, 2020, 05:34:32 PM
If I lived in Chǒngju or Sōnch'ōn, North Korea, I wouldn't say "sideswipe"!

It's like saying "Marco is predicted to miss (northern) Louisiana and Laura is predicted to miss (easternmost) Louisiana," only leaving the parentheticals out.  :P
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 24, 2020, 05:58:51 PM
If I lived in Chǒngju or Sōnch'ōn, North Korea, I wouldn't say "sideswipe"!

It's like saying "Marco is predicted to miss (northern) Louisiana and Laura is predicted to miss (easternmost) Louisiana," only leaving the parentheticals out.  :P
Being sideswiped by a D8 bulldozer might be less painful than a full frontal squelch.

Meanwhile - Marco being a typical male is degenerating, but Laura....

Quotes from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Quote
The shear is not forecast to abate in the foreseeable future, and
the simulated satellite imagery in the GFS and ECMWF suggests that
Marco will degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The latest NHC
forecast is near the various consensus aids, which shows the cyclone
weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Based on the
updated intensity forecast, tropical storm conditions are no longer
expected to be produced by Marco over the central portions of the
Louisiana coast, and the Tropical Storm Warnings for those
locations have been discontinued.

Meanwhile Laura.....
Quote

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.2N  80.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 22.2N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 23.6N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 25.2N  88.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 26.8N  91.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 28.7N  92.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 31.2N  93.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/1200Z 36.0N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  29/1200Z 37.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 24, 2020, 10:47:09 PM
Marco is expected to downgrade to a Depression before making landfall, so there won't (apparently) be two land-falling hurricanes (or tropical storms+) on a single state within about 2 days, after all.  It will be "two land-falling tropical systems", though!  :) [a reference (http://connecticut.news12.com/story/42534401/storm-marco-closes-in-on-louisiana-as-laura-buffets-cuba)]
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on August 25, 2020, 03:17:33 AM
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis , more water , less wind is the forecast . Rain steady moderate , wind ENE 5-6 atm , roof tied down ..
  5 days apart named storms in August in Ireland is unusual . I think I see another one coming as well .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 25, 2020, 10:18:34 AM
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis

Likewise here in Kernow:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/storm-francis-follows-hot-on-the-heels-of-ellen/

A flood alert for the (Silic)Inny Valley!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2020, 07:08:03 PM
European model aims #Laura at Houston Texas, as a major hurricane.
Quote
Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) 8/24/20, 10:22 PM
Seeing a lot of variations on this theme today. Is there a chance he is right? You bet. But most data available now indicates a track east of Houston. The European model is tremendous, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. Trust @NHC_Atlantic to make the best possible forecast.
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1298083192281456646

Aaron Tuttle (@AaronTuttleOK) 8/24/20, 9:13 PM

European ensemble run. It's time to evacuate #Houston. Potential Category 4 or 5 hurricane arrives late Wednesday. You can always return if it shifts course a hair, but riding it out is not the best option, nor waiting until the last minute. #txwx #houwx #HurricaneLaura
https://twitter.com/aarontuttleok/status/1298065846506594305
⬇️ Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2020, 08:24:33 PM
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis , more water , less wind is the forecast . Rain steady moderate , wind ENE 5-6 atm , roof tied down ..
  5 days apart named storms in August in Ireland is unusual . I think I see another one coming as well .. b.c.
GFS says one next Monday & then the remains of Laura on Wednesday 3 Sept.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 25, 2020, 08:27:37 PM
Menawhile Typhoon Bavi now set to scrub the West coast of the Korean Penibnsula before slamming into the N Korea / China border region at 85 knots.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 25, 2020, 08:29:23 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132020_key_messages+png/234525_key_messages_sm.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2020, 04:14:59 AM
Hurricane Laura August 25, 2020
NWS WPC: "Hurricane Laura is forecast to make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border early Thursday morning. As Laura moves across the country, heavy rainfall will occur from the Gulf Coast, to the Mississippi Valley, and east into the Ohio Valley. Flooding and flash flooding is likely.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1298387302050410497
First image below.

"Hurricane #Laura will intensify all the way to the coast and forecast to be a MAJOR storm. Be ready by bedtime tonight. Impacts will go far inland. Have supplies for 7 days. If told to evacuate, do it. This is a life threatening storm.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jacquijerastv/status/1298288500098371584
Images below.  Satellite pic at the link.

FEMA Region 6: "If you live in Texas and are looking for the latest evacuation orders visit: https://gov.texas.gov/hurricane  for the latest news. #Laura #Texas"
https://mobile.twitter.com/femaregion6/status/1298356897012228096
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 26, 2020, 02:09:07 PM
Well Laura is now Cat 3 so our first Atlantic Basin 'Major' of the year!

She does appear to be 'bombing' presently so Cast 4 by local sunset is not out of the question...

She's still a little misshapen and the center keeps having trachoidal wobbles (like a spinning top does before it falls over?) so trying to pin down landfall 'by eye' is a tad tricky!

One to watch guys!!!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2020, 04:01:12 PM
She's still a little misshapen

A recent photo from on high:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/marco-and-laura-gang-up-on-gulf-coast/#Aug-26-13Z
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 26, 2020, 04:37:53 PM
My guardian’s daughter lives right where this is targeted.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: be cause on August 26, 2020, 05:24:44 PM
Hope she's safe Tom .. latest NHC forecast is category 4 at landfall .. b.c.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2020, 05:45:01 PM
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 8/26/20, 11:14 AM
Here are the 10 AM CDT Key Messages for #Laura, expected to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the coast in a few hours. Preparations to protect life and property need to be completed.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1298640015463821312
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 26, 2020, 05:55:27 PM
Further to the 10 am CDT update, the Discussion  (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/261515.shtml?)includes
Quote
Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low.  Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast.  After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast ...
...
Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. ...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: dnem on August 26, 2020, 06:00:24 PM
The area where the eyewall is predicted to come ashore, and to the right of there, is remarkably sparsely developed. Probably one of best stretches of coast in the Gulf that could be impacted. Not that it is totally empty and there are obviously plenty of people at great risk.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2020, 06:26:10 PM
The area where the eyewall is predicted to come ashore, and to the right of there, is remarkably sparsely developed. Probably one of best stretches of coast in the Gulf that could be impacted. Not that it is totally empty and there are obviously plenty of people at great risk.

What “Luck” looks like in 2020.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 26, 2020, 06:26:30 PM
It will be running over a lot of rigs out there ...

(https://skytruth.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/SkyTruth_MarinerEnergy_Vermilion_map-1.jpg)

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/95/b8/1d/95b81d5e3fa4ca5725f648e0152e1592.jpg)

------------------------------------

Hurricane Laura to Hit Texas, Louisiana as Category 4 with 'Unsurvivable Storm Surge'

PORT ARTHUR, Texas — Hurricane Laura is expected to be an "extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane" with "unsurvivable storm surge" when it reaches the Gulf Coast on Wednesday night and early Thursday, the hurricane center said in its 10 a.m. CDT update.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/260857.shtml

... STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

- Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft
- Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft
- Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
- Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
- Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
- Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
- Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 26, 2020, 07:37:41 PM

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
9m
New plane entering #Laura is finding surface wind estimates of 130-135 mph, which would make Laura a Category 4 hurricane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 26, 2020, 07:58:25 PM
Now at 140 MPH

from NHC:

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Archimid on August 26, 2020, 08:35:14 PM
nanning and Jim, sorry for not getting back to you earlier. Covid 19 seems to occupy most of my thoughts these days.

These types of storm are common and they usually cause no significant damage. In fact, I took full advantage of the abundant rain followed by abundant light situation that arise to lay down some fertilizer in my garden.

It is worth pointing out that prior to Maria an small event like this would almost certainly mean I would lose power. This time around the power held steady.

It also serves to point out a few maintance jobs that I'm slacking behind, like clogged drains.

That was Laura the tropical storm. Laura the Cat 4 hurricane is something else.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2020, 09:16:22 PM
Quote
Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) 8/26/20, 1:46 PM
If the NHC forecast verifies, #Laura would the strongest hurricane on record for that part of NW Gulf Coast. Words fail me at a time like this- simply put, it would change the course of the landfall area much like Katrina did. Gut-wrenching
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1298678305965703169
Radar image below; gif at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2020, 09:57:22 PM
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 8/26/20, 1:51 PM
#Laura continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4 #hurricane with max winds of 140 mph. Laura is now the strongest August hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina (2005). #HurricaneLaura
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298679386690863106
Satellite gif at the link. 

Wave height image below from:  https://www.oceanweather.com/data/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 26, 2020, 11:20:57 PM
Just a footnote:  "Marco made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River around 6:00 p.m. CDT [Monday, August 24] as a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph."

So Louisiana will have two land-falling tropical storms+ within 2½ days.  140 mph Cat 4 Laura is expected to make landfall about midnight (+/- a couple hours) tonight (about 8 hours from 'now').  Only 15 mph to Cat 5 status ...  :'(

Sorry about the "English" measurements, but that's how they're reported ...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2020, 11:30:05 PM
140 mph Cat 4 Laura is expected to make landfall about midnight

Now 145 mph Laura:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 27, 2020, 12:01:49 AM
Arkansas doesn't get tropical storms very often.  Apparently maybe half a dozen times this past 100 years or so (e.g.,Hurricane 2 in 1941, Audrey 1956 (?), Betsy in 1965 and Ike in 2008)

A PDF of Arkansas-affecting storms...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjQmpSG7bnrAhVLvlkKHW_FAgsQFjAEegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Fmedia%2Flzk%2Far_tropical.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2LdtpnTCB5vX2FUEKDDebs
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2020, 12:17:41 AM
Storm surge penetrating up to 40 miles inland?
Quote from NHC,,,
Quote
Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.
WTNT63 KNHC 262156
TCUAT3
__________________________________________________
Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
500 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Low tide occurred along the northwestern Gulf coast within the past
hour, and water levels are expected to rise quickly through the
evening and overnight due to storm surge and the tide.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on August 27, 2020, 12:24:01 AM
I've been tracking this storm all week...it's an absolute monster. I can't believe the rapid intensification it has undergone, but the Gulf is just so warm.

What's most dangerous is that it will more than likely hit while strengthening, which is worse than the same speed but weakening on the approach. I know wave heights of about 40ft have been recorded as well.

I think it would be very improbable if it were became a cat 5 before it hit, but then again I would not be too surprised either given its current structure

This is as recent as I could grab:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: sark on August 27, 2020, 01:31:41 AM
NOAA #24 first eye pass found it is just at the cusp of cat 5, 937mb extrapolated surface pressure.  Seeing 170mph on radar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA22413ALAURA

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: sark on August 27, 2020, 01:48:17 AM
150mph https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/262342.shtml
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Freegrass on August 27, 2020, 01:58:28 AM
Only 6 mph away from cat 5 status.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: sark on August 27, 2020, 02:41:34 AM
data from NOAA2's microwave sounder thingy is flagged but was 137 knots.  FL winds 141kt

everything looks like it is still intensifying and is probably pushing through cat 5 right now

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA22413ALAURA
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 27, 2020, 03:18:50 AM
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/laura-is-close-to-becoming-a-category-5-storm-hurricane-update/ar-BB18oKP0

With winds of 150 miles (241 kilometers) per hour, Laura is just 7 mph short of the most powerful storm category possible, and it’s matching the previous record breaker Lost Island Hurricane of 1856. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches the northwest U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast overnight, the National Hurricane Center said. It’s coming with more power than Hurricane Harvey had when it made landfall in Texas in 2017.

The stretch of coastline that will feel Laura’s impact accounts for about a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity and half of North America’s production of ethylene, a key plastic raw material, according to Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, not to mention newly built liquefied natural gas export terminals. The rapid growth of petrochemical facilities over the past decade, fueled by the U.S. shale boom, has raised the potential for fatalities, as well as vast financial and environmental damage.

The storm could cause as much as $25 billion in damage and economic losses, Watson said. The destruction to refineries could cost $5 billion alone.

One major concern is that violent wind and storm surge could inundate Superfund sites, dislodging contaminated soil and spreading toxic deposits throughout the nearby communities.

About 64 crude oil and refined product tankers are in the western U.S. Gulf waiting on Hurricane Laura to pass, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 27, 2020, 03:42:22 AM
150 mph winds at 7 pm Central Daylight Time.  5 mph between this and a Cat 5, and about 5 hours to landfall from then.  :'(

The last US mainland Cat 5 strike was 2018's Michael (in my neck of the woods, almost).  Before that, the 1992 Andrew (Miami-Dade County, Florida) and 1969 Camille (Louisiana & Mississippi).  My mom might remember hearing about the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: wdmn on August 27, 2020, 04:11:43 AM
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Models continue having problems over high SST anomaly waters.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Rodius on August 27, 2020, 05:46:55 AM
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Models continue having problems over high SST anomaly waters.

Given sudden excalation appears to be happen far more often in recent years, I wonder if the rules the models use need updating... actually, this is obviously the case... but it also means that the models, in terms of sudden escalation, cant be relied on in that respect.

The research isn't keeping up with the changes.......
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on August 27, 2020, 06:32:58 AM
Just before landfall; as powerful as ever!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 27, 2020, 08:33:49 AM
Landfall at 150 mph according to the NHC:

Quote
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Plus the associated power outages have begun:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1298686190967820292

Quote
There are 109,811 outages across Louisiana at the moment.


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on August 27, 2020, 08:51:32 AM
Watching some guy in a parking garage in lake Charles live stream on you tube.
145mile an hour winds  .

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RPkb5uLbpU
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Archimid on August 27, 2020, 11:39:33 AM
145 mph. At that speed the ground shakes. Everything around you vibrates. Your ears ring. The level on the toilet bowl goes up and down. Everything is damp and dark. Your senses at maximum alert for hours. It is very disorienting.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 27, 2020, 12:29:48 PM
Talked to my guardian today.
His daughter dodged a bullet...it hit northeast of her.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on August 27, 2020, 03:23:37 PM
Greg Postel (https://twitter.com/GregPostel/status/1298964064085958656)
Quote
Early reports suggest storm surge flooding thankfully wasn't nearly as high as some prior projections ... waiting on more data
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2020, 05:35:49 PM
It seems that Hurricane Laura is part of a trend that can only cease when the oceans stop warming.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/8/E1301/346683/Continued-Increases-in-the-Intensity-of-Strong
OTHER| 20 AUGUST 2020
Continued Increases in the Intensity of Strong Tropical Cyclones
James B. Elsner

Quote
Abstract
In a 2008 paper, using satellite-derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-yr period 1981–2006, we showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. We related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans have continued to warm since that paper was published, so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued upward as well. Here I show that this is the case, with increases in the upper-quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5% and 4.5% in the period 2007–19 relative to the earlier base period (1981–2006). All basins individually show upward intensity trends for at least one upper quantile considered, with the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins showing the steepest and most consistent trends across the quantiles.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 27, 2020, 10:44:10 PM
Lake Charles Chemicals Plant On Fire In Wake Of Hurricane Laura
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/08/27/louisiana-chemicals-plant-on-fire-in-wake-of-hurricane-laura/amp/

... The plant on fire is confirmed by company representatives to be owned by BioLab, a subsidiary of privately held KIKCorp. It has historically manufactured chlorine-based products including toilet bowl tablets, chlorinating granules and biocides. According to eyewitness videos, thick smoke is billowing north across Interstate-10.

According to 2019 Louisiana state environmental regulatory documents, the BioLab site produces 115 million pounds per year of trichloroisocyanuric acid and disodium isocyanurate, biocides and disinfectants.

On the same grounds as the BioLab site, according to regulatory documents is a plant operated by Lonza Group, which manufactures dimethyl hydrazine (a rocket propellant) for the U.S. government.

[... Combine the 2 and you can do a reenactment of the chlorine gas attack against French troops at Ypres, Belgium during WWI]

The plant is already considered to be a major emitter of air pollutants including sulfur dioxide and volatile organic compounds.

According to eyewitness videos, thick smoke is billowing north across Interstate-10. People were told to shelter-in-place.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/414cf15bed173e56ab0ccadf86aa3977bc590034/0_0_4722_2834/master/4722.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=edb2a4dc80c9e69e18a041285cdead40)

---------------------------
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: longwalks1 on August 27, 2020, 11:43:41 PM
The old Cat6 is now Eye of the Storm    on Yale Climate Connections.  I guess IBM couldn't handle "The Weather" Channel with Cat6 associated with it.   

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/climate-change-is-causing-more-rapid-intensification-of-atlantic-hurricanes/

Quote
Rapidly intensifying storms like Hurricanes Laura, Michael, and Harvey are dangerous because they can catch forecasters and the public off guard.
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 27, 2020
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 28, 2020, 02:34:59 PM
There's still around 800,000 power outages courtesy of Laura:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/marco-and-laura-gang-up-on-gulf-coast/#Aug-28-08Z
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: harpy on August 28, 2020, 04:26:29 PM
145 mph. At that speed the ground shakes. Everything around you vibrates. Your ears ring. The level on the toilet bowl goes up and down. Everything is damp and dark. Your senses at maximum alert for hours. It is very disorienting.

That sounds exhilarating.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2020, 04:42:43 PM
N.W Pacific

Looks like Tropical Storm Maysak is doing a copycat of typhoon Bavi.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on August 29, 2020, 05:06:25 PM
Lake Charles during Laura landfall...

https://youtu.be/TEAp85tMdAM

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/2-nasanoaasate.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on August 31, 2020, 02:54:30 PM
Looks like Korea gets walloped by Typhoon Maysak Wednesday / Thursday.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1020.gif
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 31, 2020, 05:09:20 PM
A feeling of déjà vu in the North Atlantic too?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on August 31, 2020, 06:19:07 PM
Thanks for the updates mates.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Alexander555 on August 31, 2020, 08:05:27 PM
And just after maysak they get this one in Japan.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jeju-islander on September 01, 2020, 04:12:15 PM
Typhoon Maysak is currently a category 4. storm. Lowest pressure 935hPa. It's 260 km NW of Okinawa.
It's next brush past land is as it passes by the east coast of Jeju Island in 18 hours time.
From there it is predicted to continue on an almost direct hit with the city of Busan on the Korean mainland.

Jeju Island  gets multiple typhoons brushing past each year. Some veer to the west as typhoon Bavi did last week, and some veer to the east as Maysak is expected to do tomorrow. Damage here is usually relatively low, despite huge rainfall on the mountain. For example last Wednesday there was over 500mm of rain.

The potential for damage to the city of Busan is far greater even though the storm is expected to weaken before landfall. - Typhoon Maysak could become one of South Korea's strongest typhoons on record  (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/typhoon-maysak-could-become-one-of-south-koreas-strongest-typhoons-on-record/)
The track and scale of this typhoon is similar to the 2003 typhoon Maemi. The damage report for that storm is here - Guy Carpenter. Typhoon Maemi Loss Report 2003 (PDF) (Report).  (https://web.archive.org/web/20131019163654/http://gcportal.guycarp.com/portal/extranet/popup/pdf/GCPub/GC%20Typhoon%20Maemi%20report.pdf?vid=1)

Here's a graphic showing the Pacific typhoons so far this year 2020, and for last year 2019. Jeju Island is south of the Korean mainland.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/63/2020_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.png/800px-2020_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.png)

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/80/2019_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.png/800px-2019_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.png)

graphics from Wikipedia - 2020 Pacific typhoon season (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Pacific_typhoon_season) and Wikipedia - 2019 Pacific typhoon season (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Pacific_typhoon_season)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 02, 2020, 02:06:28 PM
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Rodius on September 02, 2020, 03:04:23 PM
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:


They are going to run out of names.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 02, 2020, 03:48:20 PM
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:


They are going to run out of names.
Did that once before. They went to Greek letters.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 02, 2020, 05:04:20 PM
I wonder if they would ever 'retire' a Greek letter...  :-\

Hmmm... If Hurricane Beta took out a small coastal city, would people muse, "That was the Beta; wait until the working version comes out!"  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on September 02, 2020, 05:21:43 PM
Hurricane Omegad  :'(
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 03, 2020, 08:34:59 AM
Hurricane Nana makes landfall in Belize:

Quote
NANA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF BELIZE BETWEEN DANGRIGA AND PLACENCIA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 the center of Nana was located near 16.8, -88.3 with movement WSW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 03, 2020, 03:58:31 PM
43 Missing After Cargo Ship Sinks in Typhoon Near Japan
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/03/asia/typhoon-maysak-cargo-ship-missing-japan-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

A lone Filipino sailor has been rescued from the dark waters of the Pacific Ocean after a cargo ship carrying 5800 cattle with 43 people aboard went missing during Typhoon Maysak, according to the Japan Coast Guard.

The Gulf Livestock 1 transmitted a distress signal early Wednesday when it was about 185 kilometers (115 miles) west of Amami Oshima island, about midway between Okinawa and Kyushu, Japan's southernmost main island.

The area in the East China Sea was being battered by the powerful typhoon, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of at least 130 mph, at the time the ship went missing.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on September 03, 2020, 05:10:07 PM
And after Maysak along comes Typhoon Haishen
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jeju-islander on September 03, 2020, 06:16:42 PM
Here in Jeju some places on the mountain had over 1000mm of rain over the last two days.
It was wet and windy, but no substantial damage here.
The next one (Haishen) due on Monday morning is forecast to be even stronger.

The mountain road near me became impassable for a while.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 04, 2020, 12:21:59 AM
Russian Floating Dry Dock Smacks Into Ships And Submarines At Naval Base During Typhoon Maysak
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36171/typhoon-sends-russian-floating-dry-dock-smacking-into-ships-and-submarines-at-naval-base

High winds from Typhoon Maysak caused a floating dry dock to break free of its moorings at Russia's Vostochny Verf shipyard in the country's far eastern port city of Vladivostok. Once free, it drifted into a number of ships and submarines belonging to the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet, causing untold damage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1301536636459679746

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1301525604072857600

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1301526388420349952

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eg_9tmTXYAIeSPO?format=jpg&name=medium)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eg_9tmUXsAAd6GO?format=jpg&name=medium)

The imagery that has emerged on social media so far shows a particularly dramatic collision between it and a cluster of moored Project 1241.1 Molniya class missile corvettes. These ships each displace just under 550 tons with a full load and can carry up to 16 Kh-35 Uran anti-ship cruise missiles as their primary armament. The Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet has had around 11 of these ships.

A Kilo class attack submarine was also reportedly struck as the dock went floating along. The Russian Pacific fleet has six of these boats.

The extent the damage remains unclear, but this is just the latest in a string of calamities to befall the Russian Navy in recent years. In 2018, a fire broke out on a Kilo class submarine in Vladivostok. Russia later claimed had just been an exercise, but this seems highly improbable and the exact circumstances surrounding that incident remain unclear.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/17853/fire-at-russias-vladivostok-submarine-base-sure-doesnt-look-like-an-exercise

Also in 2018, PD-50, the Russian Navy's largest floating dry dock sunk at the 82nd Shipbuilding Plant at Roslyakovo near Murmansk after an apparent electrical malfunction that caused its ballast tanks to get stuck in the open position. Russia's sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was inside at the time, undergoing a major overhaul. A fire on Kuznetsov last year, which reportedly caused 350 million Rubles worth of damage, more than $4.6 million at the present rate exchange, further called into question when and if the ship will return to service.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 04, 2020, 05:21:56 AM
Maysak brought rarely strong wind to Vladivostok.

The Atlantic Ocean generates a lot of storms this year. 6 names left in the list.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 04, 2020, 04:56:54 PM
Maysak in Vladivostok (https://vk.com/videos-21245447?z=video-21245447_456247694%2Fclub21245447%2Fpl_-21245447_-2) (video).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 05, 2020, 02:24:21 AM
NASA’s Impressive New AI Can Predict When a Hurricane Intensifies
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/09/03/nasas-impressive-new-ai-can-predict-when-a-hurricane-intensifies/

Scientists at the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California developed the system after searching through years of satellite data.

They discovered three strong signals that a hurricane will become more severe: abundant rainfall inside the storm‘s inner core; the amount of ice water in the clouds within the tropical cyclone; and the temperature of the air flowing away from the eye of the hurricane.

The team then used IBM Watson Studio to build a model that analyzes all these factors, as well as those already used by the National Hurricane Center, a US government agency that monitors hazardous tropical weather.

The researchers trained the model to detect when a hurricane will undergo rapid intensification — which happens when wind speeds increase by 56 kmph or more within 24 hours — on storms that swept across the US between 1998 and 2008. They then tested it on a separate set of storms that hit the country from 2009 to 2014. Finally, they compared the system’s forecasts to the model used by the National Hurricane Center for the latter set of storms.

The team says their model was 60% more likely to predict a hurricane’s winds would increase by at least 56 kmph within 24 hours. But for hurricanes whose winds shot up by at least 64 kmph, the new system had a 200% higher chance of detecting these events.

The team is now testing the model on storms during the current hurricane season. If that proves successful, it could help minimize the loss of life and property caused when future tropical cyclones hit.

Applying Satellite Observations of Tropical Cyclone Internal Structures to Rapid Intensification Forecast With Machine Learning  , Geophysical Research Letters, 2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL089102
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 07, 2020, 05:14:15 PM
Tropical storm PAULETTE (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al17/al172020.discus.003.shtml?)
Quote
Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Another one is already formed into a depression and should be named next hours.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 07, 2020, 06:40:41 PM
The remaining names are Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vickey and Wilfred.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 07, 2020, 08:15:32 PM
And Tropical Depression 18 is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 08, 2020, 06:34:36 AM
Quote
Rene ... is the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al18/al182020.discus.003.shtml?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on September 10, 2020, 05:36:24 PM
With regards to the ACE metric, the North Atlantic is almost exactly average this year.

http://climatlas.com/tropical/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 10, 2020, 06:53:39 PM
NHC has some work this week.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 11, 2020, 01:36:02 AM
It’s the Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the Tropics are Bonkers
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/its-the-peak-of-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-and-the-tropics-are-bonkers/

... This afternoon's deterministic run of the European model shows the interaction of multiple systems subjecting themselves to the Fujiwhara effect next week. This highest-resolution version of the model, for what it's worth, shows a stronger African wave that turns north fairly early. ...

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/ezgif.com-crop.gif)

Watching Four (maybe more?) Tropical Systems in the Atlantic
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/09/08/watching-four-maybe-more-tropical-systems-in-the-atlantic/

https://youtu.be/UXK8nfRRu-4

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020091018/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_50.png)

... lot of tropical moisture heading towards Greenland in 2 weeks
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on September 11, 2020, 03:43:52 PM
Tons of uncertainty in that GFS model, as forecasts vary wildly.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2020, 05:41:33 PM
Tropical Storm Watch Issued For the Florida Panhandle as Tropical Depression Enters the Gulf
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-11-disturbance-tropical-depression-gulf-of-mexico-florida

Tropical Depression 19 is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Florida and the Gulf Coast through the weekend and into next week.

(https://s.w-x.co/staticmaps/MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL5_storm_info_1280x720.jpg)

The system will arrive on the northern Gulf Coast in the first half of next week as a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane, but exactly when and where that occurs is uncertain.

---------------------------------

... stay safe Tor
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: wdmn on September 12, 2020, 07:40:15 PM
HRWF now forecasting possible cat 3/4 at landfall...

https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1304834379273981952
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2020, 07:47:10 PM
^
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EhuzS8VXcAUlPl7?format=png&name=medium)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 12, 2020, 08:06:59 PM
Rush Limbaugh Downplaying Hurricane Irma May Have Decreased Evacuations
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/rush-limbaugh-downplaying-hurricane-irma-may-have-decreased-evacuations/

Before Hurricane Irma hit Florida in 2017, radio entertainer (and Florida resident) Rush Limbaugh falsely ranted that landfalling hurricanes are “never as strong as they’re reported,” claiming that life-saving forecasts are exaggerated “to advance this climate change agenda.” Beyond his radio audience, the comments generated a fair amount of news coverage. Yet Limbaugh evacuated his beachfront mansion a few days later.

Given the cultural polarization about certain scientific facts, it’s fair to wonder if these irresponsible falsehoods had a discernible impact on evacuations. UCLA’s Elisa Long, Keith Chen, and Ryne Rohla used a phone-location dataset to find out. They compared evacuations for Irma to those in Texas for Hurricane Harvey and to Florida’s 2016 Hurricane Matthew.

The dataset includes anonymized locations from millions of phones, so it requires some simplified processing. Each phone’s home location is defined by its most common location in the week previous to the first hurricane alert. Then, for a window of time around the hurricane, evacuations are determined by a change in location that lasts at least 24 hours.

Each home location is also assigned to its voting precinct. So based on the results of the 2016 presidential election, the researchers were looking for a correlation between evacuation rates and the political tilt of the precinct.

Comparing Harvey evacuations in the Houston area to Matthew and Irma evacuations in Florida, Irma stands out. The evacuation rate seems significantly lower in precincts where a greater share of votes went to Donald Trump. Overall, about 37 percent of the phones in Florida were recorded as evacuating, but these correlations indicate something like a 7-11 percent difference in the evacuation rate based on vote. There’s no significant pattern like that in the other two hurricanes that were examined.

(https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/evacuation_Irma_trump_voters-2.jpg)

The researchers looked for some other correlations to see if the political connection could be a coincidence. But they say things like income, education level, and distance from the coast don’t explain the pattern. Given that the timing of the divergence lines up with Rush Limbaugh’s comments and the ensuing media coverage, the researchers draw a pretty strong conclusion that this “illustrates a large behavioral consequence of science denialism”.

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/37/eabb7906/F3.large.jpg)

Partisan divides about climate change in Florida tend to soften once the topic turns to practical decisions about dealing with sea level rise. Hurricane safety, too, needs to stay grounded in reality—and not talk radio.

Elisa F. Long, et.al., Political storms: Emergent partisan skepticism of hurricane risks, Science Advances, 2020
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/37/eabb7906
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 13, 2020, 04:15:31 AM
Just a reminder to folks that Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) has had daily 'evening' - in eastern US, anyway - posts on tropical developments in the Atlantic in recent days, and will continue while storms are a threat to land.  Sally on the mid-Gulf Coast (about Tuesday) and Paulette on Bermuda (Sunday night or Monday morning).  These 'lessons' last about 15 or 18 minutes.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2020, 04:07:00 PM
Florida, south
NWS Key West: "#ClimateTidbit... Marathon has shattered both daily & monthly records (previously 1.13" in 1995 for the daily and 5.92" on 9/28/1953 for the monthly records.) Key West has nearly doubled the daily rainfall record of 2.26" back in 1924. #flwx #FLKeys #FloridaKeys #RecordRain"

NWS Key West: "Curious how much rain has fallen? This Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor image shows 24-hr totals. Overall, values are a bit underdone (observed values below) Marathon: 7.78" Key West: 4.46" Boca Chica: 4.33" #flwx #FLKeys #FloridaKeys #KeyWest #MarathonFL #Islamorada #KeyLargo #Sally”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1304934478574309376
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2020, 04:11:21 PM
WPC 5-DayTotal Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 13, 2020, 06:15:42 PM
Last 7 days of rainfall, per Weather Underground (https://www.wunderground.com/maps/precipitation/weekly/pie) in southern Florida.  The Keys are near the lower right corner of this screen print (just above "12Z").

Their '12 inches+' = 300 mm+ reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 which dumped 25" or 625 mm of rain on my rain gauges in 7 days (from early outer bands when the storm was near Miami to when it was just off [or on] local shores to late outer bands when is was leaving Florida Panhandle waters). (I was home - I emptied two rain gauges and recorded amounts 3 or 4 times on some of those days.  (One gauge maxes out at 4" and the other at 7", and twice the 4" one was splashing out when emptied, therefore the use of the less precise 7" one.)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2020, 11:28:00 PM
Quote
Ricky Matthews (@wxrjm) 9/13/20, 12:26 AM
Reddit user u/Protuhj wrote a python script (available on Github) to make an image of all the NHC cones in one map. ...
https://twitter.com/wxrjm/status/1304999967409541121

https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/iro5eo/i_made_a_tool_to_consolidate_the_forecast_cones/
“The image should update hourly (if there’s a change in the generated image(s)).“

https://protuhj.github.io/nhc-cones/

Current image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 14, 2020, 05:04:43 PM
Teddy and Vicky have formed. One name left.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: oren on September 14, 2020, 05:08:48 PM
Impressive!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 14, 2020, 05:13:52 PM
How far into the greek letters will it go? I think there were 6 the only previous time Alpha, Beta, ... Zeta got called on and this season is ahead of that schedule.
Teddy and Vicky have formed. One name left.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on September 14, 2020, 06:28:02 PM
Interesting season.  Definitely a flurry of activity that will potentially produce the most named storms recorded during a hurricane season.  However, the intensity has been much lower than other active seasons. 

Currently, of the 17 tropical cyclones, there have been six hurricanes with Sally likely to become number seven soon.  Additionally, only one (Laura) has reached major hurricane status (Cat. 4 with 150 mph sustained winds).  By contrast, 2005 had 15 cyclones with eight becoming hurricanes, three of which reached major status (including two cat. 5s).  1933 also had six hurricanes, but four reached category 4 or higher.

Using the ACE metric, this season has been relatively average.  The year-to-date ACE is 60 compared to an average of 58.  Current activity may push the final total above 104, the yearly average., but likely to fall far short of the 2005 season, which measured 250, slightly less than that estimated for 1933.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on September 14, 2020, 09:24:49 PM
I made this lil graphic. Pls enjoy!!

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 14, 2020, 09:55:06 PM
Jeff Masters (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/sally-intensifies-into-a-dangerous-hurricane/) (formerly with and founder of Weather Underground) has a post on Yale Climate Connections (https://yaleclimateconnections.org) (dated today):
Quote
for just the second time on record, the Atlantic has five simultaneous [named tropical systems]
...
Sally intensifies into a dangerous hurricane
...
The track forecast for Sally has more uncertainty than usual for a storm expected to make landfall in less than 48 hours. ...  landfall in Mississippi or Alabama appears most likely.
...
The official forecast calls for Sally to peak as a category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph, but it could reach category 3 hurricane strength with 115 mph winds if it manages to close off a complete eyewall by Tuesday morning.
...
A larger corridor of 8-16 inches can be expected near the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle.
...
Storm surge is also a major concern, with up to 11 feet of surge predicted along the east side of New Orleans. As discussed in Sunday’s post, New Orleans’ rebuilt levee system has proven it can handle storm surge flooding of at least 17 feet, the peak level of storm surge flooding observed during Hurricane Isaac in August 2012. However, many areas outside this levee system are not as well fortified and suffered destructive storm surge flooding during Isaac. Sally is likely to produce a prolonged and dangerous storm surge from Monday into Wednesday across far southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and far western Florida.
...
In other news from same article:
Quote
Hurricane Paulette made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda early Monday morning, with its 40-mile-wide eye encompassing almost the entire island at 5 a.m. EDT. At landfall, Paulette was a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The hurricane’s winds increased to 90 mph while Bermuda was in the eye; at 9 a.m. EDT, when the rear eyewall was pounding the island, NHC upgraded Paulette to a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.
...
Teddy’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its nineteenth tropical storm, topping the record held by an unnamed storm from October 4, 2005, which was classified after the season was over. Vicky’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its twentieth tropical storm, topping the record held by Tammy from October 5, 2005.
and much more ...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2020, 01:37:46 AM
Mark Sudduth: "Make no mistake, what Sally lacks in wind energy it will more than make up for in rain and flooding. Think Florence in [North Carolina/South Carolina] two years ago. Threatened to make landfall as a category four; did so as a 1 and was NC’s most costly hurricane ever."
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1305974022795034626
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 16, 2020, 10:15:57 AM
Hurricane Sally Strengthens to Category 2 as it Nears Landfall, Bringing Life-Threatening Flooding
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/16/weather/hurricane-sally-wednesday/index.html

https://youtu.be/9hnfX3M-aiw

Hurricane Sally restrengthened to a Category 2 Hurricane early Wednesday morning as it churns slowly along the Gulf Coast.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EiA7z8iUwAESEMV?format=png&name=medium)

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1306083306019012608

The slow-moving storm is expected to make landfall between Gulfport, Mississippi, and Pensacola, Florida late Wednesday morning if it maintains its current 2 mph crawl north.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TWCChrisBruin/status/1306114328064651270

Quote
Most of downtown Pensacola is FLOODED and the water keeps rising. Very serious situation unfolding with the worst of #Sally still hours away. View from our hotel. Whitecaps rolling down most streets

More than 150,000 people are already without power along the Gulf Coast and thousands have evacuated ahead of the storm.

Satellite imagery of Sally indicates the eye reforming early Wednesday, which is another sign of strengthening,

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306109776204427264

Rainfall of 10 to 20 inches (250-500 mm)  is expected across Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with isolated amounts of 30 inches (762 mm) possible.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1306104718192766978

Quote
A dropsonde released from the recon aircraft suggests that wind gusts as high as 130 mph may be reaching the ground in the northeast eyewall of #Sally.

Those in the path of Sally are also experiencing water outages as conditions are unsafe to make repairs to utilities because of the storm.

Escambia County Utilities Authority issued an alert Tuesday that they are unable to respond to a significant water main break in Pensacola Beach due to storm conditions and bridge closures ahead of Sally.

The water system had to be shut off at approximately 11:00 p.m. as storm surge and tide levels will also inundate the sewer collection system, according to ECUA.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2020, 08:49:14 PM
Hurricane Sally slams into Alabama and Florida, and rescues from widespread flooding are underway
Quote
A Category 1 Hurricane Sally is pummeling southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle after it crossed land Wednesday morning, prompting water rescues, sapping power, dropping trees and leaving serious flooding as it crawls at an agonizingly slow pace.

"We anticipate the evacuations could literally be in the thousands," David Morgan, sheriff of Florida's Escambia County which includes Pensacola, said of rescuing people in flooded neighborhoods.

Water rescues also were reported to be ongoing in Gulf Shores, Alabama, where homes flooded and trees toppled onto roofs, city spokesman Grant Brown said.

A section of Pensacola's Three-Mile Bridge that connects to the city of Gulf Breeze is missing, thanks to the storm, Morgan said.

Sally made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Gulf Shores around 4:45 a.m. CT with sustained winds of 105 mph. It's since weakened inland, with winds at 75 mph as of noon CT.

With Sally's slow pace -- now around 5 mph -- some areas already have collected more than 24 inches of rain and could receive up to 35 inches [889mm] by storm's end. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/weather/hurricane-sally-wednesday/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Gray-Wolf on September 16, 2020, 11:20:02 PM
Isn't a Chart like this supposed to be the opening shot in some Hollywood "Global Climate Catastrophe" Sci Fi Movie from the mid 1990's?........


(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?162052)


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

EDIT: Oh ,and let's not forget the one in the Med. of course........
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 16, 2020, 11:30:42 PM
This year is the remake. Now, with twice as many storms!

(https://i.redd.it/6ngqrgb043lz.jpg)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2020, 02:53:27 AM
Alabama
Quote
Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency (@BaldwinEMA) 9/16/20, 1:06 PM
MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN BALDWIN COUNTY AND IMPACTING MANY AREAS AND ROADS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL ON AREA ROADWAYS UNLESS YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY. LEAVE THE ROADS CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY PERSONNEL. 
https://twitter.com/baldwinema/status/1306278280253890560

Quote
Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) 9/16/20, 5:57 PM
The flash flooding today caused by #Sally led to one of the most rapid water rises ever observed for both Murder Creek & Burnt Corn Creek near Brewton and East Brewton in Escambia County, Alabama. Full aerial photo album: facebook.com/40082716340896…
https://twitter.com/rzweather/status/1306351495995105281

Quote
morganabigail (@morganabigail) 9/16/20, 6:50 PM
A 20+ hour shift. There are no words to describe that shift. I'm shaken, to be honest. The pleas for help on social media from folks who couldn't get out & the folks stuck in their attics.. I just.. I'm rattled. That was a rough shift. The damage is extensive along our coast. :'(
https://twitter.com/morganabigail/status/1306364897035509764

Photo below; others at the links.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2020, 03:22:41 AM
Florida
Tropical Storm Sally: Live updates
Pensacola Fire Chief Ginny Cranor said her city was inundated with water.
Quote
“We had 30 inches [762mm] of rain in Pensacola — 30 plus inches of rain — which is four months of rain in four hours at some point,” Cranor said to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.

Cranor said a portion of Pensacola’s Three Mile Bridge sustained significant damage during the storm. Work on the bridge is “just being completed,” she said and “unfortunately I'm hearing now that this bridge may be closed for a month or more.”

“A crane fell into the bridge, we had a few barges that came loose and also ran into the bottom of the bridge, so we'll have major repairs on the bridge and also some structural engineering work that will need to take place before it opens again,” she explained.

Cranor said rescue teams are moving from response mode to recovery mode, as tonight’s curfew gets underway.

“There's a lot of electrical hazards, a lot of hazards just with the instability of the roads, so we need people to stay off the roads and give us these three days to recover and assess the damage,” she said.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-sally-updates-09-16-2020/index.html
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 17, 2020, 04:11:07 PM
Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression or Storm Could Form Thursday in Gulf of Mexico
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_836ad296-f8d7-11ea-a3fe-83c9be85af93.amp.html

A tropical depression or tropical storm could form Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said its morning update.

As of 7 a.m. Thursday, a well-defined low pressure system, currently called Invest 90L, was over southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters said thunderstorm activity with this disturbance became better organized overnight and has continued to increase

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/5/57/55768428-f8d9-11ea-99ef-a7b9e74245b9/5f63493dd92ce.image.png)

Forecasters said upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and if the trend continues, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later Thursday.

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/0e/b0e1bf00-f8dc-11ea-802c-c31c078bb6ab/5f634f50455f0.image.png)

The disturbance is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly north to northeast on Friday and Saturday.

(https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfmex.c.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 17, 2020, 09:26:23 PM
2020 cannot end without a medicane.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2020, 03:03:11 AM
A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf, and Texas needs to pay attention
Quote
Good evening. The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and this system may become Tropical Storm Wilfred in the next day or so. Before we get too deep into the forecast I just wanted to highlight a couple of changes from this morning’s post:

The depression is expected to begin moving northward a little sooner than expected, so impacts for Texas could occur sooner
The forecast models are now in a little better agreement that the tropical system will come near, or possibly even ashore the Texas coast, increasing the rainfall threat
...
As we’ve been saying, the depression has the potential to become a prodigious rainmaker over the next week for Texas and northern Mexico. We think the cold front and storm’s position will probably keep its heavy rainfall offshore through this weekend, but by Monday or so that may change. It is going to depend how close the storm’s center comes to Texas as most of the heavy rainfall should be near the center, and on the eastern half of its circulation.

Because of the track uncertainty, the entire Texas and Louisiana coasts need to be paying close attention to the potential for heavy rainfall next week. ...
https://spacecityweather.com/a-tropical-depression-has-formed-in-the-gulf-and-texas-needs-to-pay-attention/amp/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 18, 2020, 06:51:36 PM
Subtropical storm Alpha appeared.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2020, 09:27:29 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/greece-lashed-by-rare-hurricane-force-storm
Medicane
Quote
Greece’s national meteorological office issued a red alert for the Ionian isles, Peloponnese peninsula, central Greece and Euboea (Evia), warning of “severe rain and thunderstorms and gale-force winds” through the weekend. Crete, it said, would also be affected on Sunday.

Along the shores of western Greece on Friday, waves were described as 7 metres high. Later in the day, in the region of Fthiotida emergency services were inundated with calls to rescue citizens from flooded homes.

Likened to a hurricane more commonly seen in the Caribbean, the Ianos storm was expected to hit Athens on Friday evening into Saturday. Nearly half of the entire population of Greece lives in the greater Athens area, with parts of the capital particularly prone to flooding.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2020, 01:11:25 AM
Quote
Sam Lillo (@splillo) 9/18/20, 3:28 PM
Aaand now updated for Beta.
23 named storms.
34 days earlier than 2005. 
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1307038784773648392
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2020, 01:25:30 AM
Quote
NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) 9/18/20, 1:29 PM
Here are the Greek alphabet list of tropical storm names. We are checking on the whether Greek alphabet names can be retired for significant storms. Storm names and retiring names are determined by a committee of the @WMO
https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/1307008770049028097
[⬇️Image below]

National Weather Service (@NWS) 9/18/20, 3:22 PM
According to @WMO Hurricane Committee, the letter in the Greek Alphabet would not be retired. Instead, the storm would be included in the list of retired names with the year of occurrence and other details. The letter itself would continue to be available for use in the future.

More information here:
Hurricane Sally causes major flooding as 2020 season exhausts list of names | World Meteorological Organization
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/hurricane-sally-causes-major-flooding-2020-season-exhausts-list-of-names
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on September 19, 2020, 04:06:04 PM
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 19, 2020, 04:54:58 PM
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?
Hebrew? Cyrillic? Klingon?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: nanning on September 19, 2020, 05:47:24 PM
Klingon would be nice. Or runes. Or pictures. Or letter + digit. :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 19, 2020, 06:17:12 PM
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?

They label them by the year to avoid retiring any e.g. it would be Beta 2020 that gets put on the retired list if it does something nasty to Texas, rather than never using Beta again.

I expect they'd start 2021 names early if Omega was before the end of 2020, but I don't see it getting close to that. There are a lot of Greek letters.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2020, 01:37:33 PM
Tropical Storm Beta Becomes Record-Tying Ninth Mainland U.S. Landfall of 2020 Hurricane Season
• Four of those landfalls were hurricanes, roughly double the average for an entire season.
• Much of the East and Gulf coasts have been covered by a warning once this season.
Quote
Tropical Storm Beta became the ninth named storm to landfall in the mainland U.S. in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record that had stood for over 100 years.

Beta's center inched ashore along the Texas coast on late Monday, Sept. 21, becoming the ninth tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall this season.

That tied the 1916 season, which previously stood as the lone record-holder for the most number of mainland U.S. landfalls in any season....
...
Only Florida's Upper Keys and the west coast of Florida, east of Apalachicola, has yet to be placed under a tropical storm or hurricane warning so far this season.

An average hurricane season after Sept. 21 delivers another five named storms, three of which become hurricanes. As September shifts into October, the area where tropical storms and hurricanes most often form shifts back to the west into the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast.

So it's possible we're not done yet as far as U.S. impact is concerned, despite the landfall record tie.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-21-nine-us-landfalls-2020-hurricane-season-ties-record
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on September 25, 2020, 10:44:18 PM
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't seem active today.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on September 25, 2020, 11:24:52 PM
Give it a couple of weeks ...

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020092512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png)

... Or not

-----------------------------------------------

The NWS Lake Charles has found a storm surge high water mark from #Hurricane Laura of 17.2 feet above ground level (AGL) at Rutherford Beach, LA. The level was acquired from the structures left standing in the background.
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EitXzUjU4AAMaBU?format=jpg&name=900x900)
https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1309238190230835200
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: solartim27 on September 26, 2020, 05:47:03 PM
By Covidiot logic, hurricane season is over.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 26, 2020, 08:46:54 PM
... hurricane season is over.
Yeah!  Now I can throw out my hurricane supplies! 

My governor has declared the State of Florida is open for business, bars, Disney, everything.  I guess I can throw out my mask.

You're telling me the next hurricane season starts next week.  Oh.  I guess I'll keep my hurricane supplies.

Governor DeSantis only looks out for himself, you say?  I guess I'll keep my mask, too.
 :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2020, 06:19:27 PM
”This hurricane season has been defined by storms forming in strange locations that rapidly intensify and produce unusually heavy rains — a hallmark of what science says are some of the most clearly defined impacts of a warming climate. If it was 2040, we might not think it was unusual for two tropical systems to simultaneously threaten mainland Europe, but in my entire career as a meteorologist, I’ve sure as hell never heard of anything like that happening before.”

The 2020 Hurricane Season Is a Turning Point in Human History
by Eric Holthaus
https://onezero.medium.com/the-2020-hurricane-season-is-a-turning-point-in-human-history-72710f79abed
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Rodius on October 05, 2020, 07:58:29 AM
Another assault on the Mississippi Delta region for late this week is possibly brewing......


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/tropical-storm-delta-likely-to-form-by-tuesday/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 05, 2020, 02:31:35 PM
Was the pun intended?
 :)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on October 05, 2020, 02:39:52 PM
Tropical Storm Delta Forms, Expected to Make Landfall in Louisiana: See Track
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_a43baedc-06fb-11eb-b3ec-37186d000afd.amp.html

(https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/9/db/9dbdd530-0700-11eb-8e10-ebc7defe1a42/5f7b081ec5967.image.png)

Tropical Storm Delta formed Monday morning and is expected to make landfall in Louisiana, forecasters said.

The current track from the National Hurricane Center has Delta making landfall Friday as a Category 2 hurricane in southeast Louisiana. The track has an average error of 160 to 200 miles this far out.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Rodius on October 05, 2020, 03:00:16 PM
Was the pun intended?
 :)

No, damn it.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 05, 2020, 05:15:59 PM
There also exists the possibility of an interaction with tropical storm gamma just off the Yucatan.  Consequently, the forecasts for both storms are more uncertain than usual.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 05, 2020, 06:33:15 PM
A little unusual thing is happening. Hurricane Teddy is heading towards Canada and according to forecast it will reach Greenland as Tropical/Subtropical storm. It is too soon to tell if it will affect Arctic in some way but worth to mention it.
...
I responded a couple posts down.

For the record, the center of Teddy  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Teddy)never made it to Greenland.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on October 06, 2020, 01:01:29 AM
Tropical Storm Delta Expected to Approach Gulf Coast as Major Hurricane; Part of Florida In Cone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/05/tropical-storm-delta-gulf-coast/

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020100518/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_16.png)

The Hurricane Center predicts Delta will reach hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday and become a major Category 3 hurricane by Tuesday night with maximum sustained winds of at least 120 mph.

As of 5 p.m. Monday, Delta was quickly gaining strength about 150 miles south of Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 70 mph, a 30 mph leap from 8 a.m. when it was designated a tropical storm. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane warning for western Cuba and the northern Yucatán Peninsula.

Delta is forecast to get even stronger, becoming a hurricane Monday night and catapulting to a Category 3 24 hours later as it passes very close to the Yucatán Peninsula. Then it is predicted to lumber through the Gulf of Mexico, coming ashore between coastal Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into Friday as a Category 2.

Over the next two days, the Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for “significant strengthening” due to very favorable environmental conditions as the system passes through the northern Caribbean and enters the Gulf Tuesday night. In the northwest Caribbean, it is passing over very warm water of around 87 degrees, about three degrees above average, fueling its rapid intensification — a hallmark of five other 2020 storms (Hanna, Laura, Teddy, Sally and Gamma).

However, hurricane intensity forecasts are low-confidence this far in advance, and if Delta picks up speed as it collides with the coast, it may not have much time to weaken.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2020, 03:17:01 AM
Quote
Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather)10/5/20, 8:42 PM
#Delta is now a hurricane, 9th Atlantic hurricane of 2020. Just 12 hours ago, it had just become tropical storm. Winds have leaped 35 mph, meeting criteria for "rapid intensification" in half required time. 6th storm to rapidly intensify in 2020. Details: wapo.st/3iuTrlf
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1313278344121778178
Image below.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 06, 2020, 05:30:05 PM
Delta is a major hurricane already.

Quote
000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
Source (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/061520.shtml?).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: oren on October 06, 2020, 08:23:37 PM
Wow. The first forecast posted upthread yesterday called for Delta to still be a tropical storm at this time. The secons forecast called for it to become a plain hurricane, and now it's already a Cat4.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on October 06, 2020, 09:09:28 PM
I'll be watching Delta closely, I feel like it is going to continue to intensify and depending on its land interaction with the Yucatán, it may weaken but also expand in size.

Additionally, given the amount of time before it's supposed to hit the U.S. I suspect it will undergo an eyewall replacement cycle or two (also expanding it). It's going to be a formidable storm and given its well defined structure now, I think this will be one to follow.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 06, 2020, 09:49:57 PM
Back 20 years ago when I first started following Dr. Master's WeatherUnderground blog, or maybe a year later, there was condemnation about some commenters 'wishful thinking' a storm was headed their way, when the chances were slim.  Some wisecracker then suggested a particular Atlantic Basin hurricane was heading right towards Boise (capitol city of Idaho - (inland) northwestern USA): "Boise-casting", it would be called.

So, Pearscot, with your "watching Delta closely", and my understanding you are in Washington (state), I'll 'condemn' your [at least, my presumption of your] "Olympic Peninsula-casting".  :o 8) :P
:)

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on October 06, 2020, 09:59:53 PM
Back 20 years ago when I first started following Dr. Master's WeatherUnderground blog, or maybe a year later, there was condemnation about some commenters 'wishful thinking' a storm was headed their way, when the chances were slim.  Some wisecracker then suggested a particular Atlantic Basin hurricane was heading right towards Boise (capitol city of Idaho - (inland) northwestern USA): "Boise-casting", it would be called.

So, Pearscot, with your "watching Delta closely", and my understanding you are in Washington (state), I'll 'condemn' your [at least, my presumption of your] "Olympic Peninsula-casting".  :o 8) :P
:)

What??? I think you completely misunderstood my post. When I say "watching closely" I mean that I have been tracking this storm from its inception. I certainly do not want to be in the path of it nor do I hope for anyone to have their life disrupted by it. I'm merely stating that as I "closely watch" the arctic, I'm also hyper interested in weather/tropical system.

My post is speaking to this storm needing to be taken serious and there is a lot of potential for it to continue to grow in size. NOAA has stated this storm is currently small, however based off of what I have seen, I suspect it will grow in size and therefore those living on the coast in the U.S. really should be ready for potential storm surge.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 06, 2020, 10:28:10 PM
Something above 170 doesn't appear very often on this chart.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 06, 2020, 10:56:33 PM
Sorry, Pearscot, for taking your words out of your intended context and adding my imagery.  I was sort of clear that I knew I was making unfounded presumptions and was being tongue in cheek.  'Many' followers of tropical weather watch most closely that tropical weather that might affect them.  Your  "watching closely" reminded me of the frequent WU theme: home-casting.  I did not think you were actually doing that.  I don't think I have ever written about that one occurrence of tongue-in-cheek Boise-casting, but I certainly smile about it every year.

Yes, Major Hurricane Delta will undoubtedly grow in size and have significant impacts on the Yucatán Peninsula and the central Gulf Coast.  If I lived within or close to the NOAA cone, I'd plan for major hurricane impacts.  As always expressed by Levi on his Tropical Tidbits (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/) presentations, "when making decisions, consult the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/) and local weather office for the best information for your specific location."

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 06, 2020, 11:02:43 PM
Major Hurricane Delta at 5 pm (EST):  125 kts (145 mph = 230 km/hr).
From NHC:
Quote
There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 07, 2020, 12:12:42 AM
I wonder if they will retire the letter?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: dnem on October 07, 2020, 01:06:35 PM
I wonder if they will retire the letter?

NHC has said that they will not retire any Greek letters but will add an entry, with the year appended, to the retired list. So, Delta 2020 may be added to the retired list, but Delta will not be retired.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 07, 2020, 01:29:10 PM
Weird. Even if they don’t retire it they can’t use the year again so that seems pointless.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Freegrass on October 07, 2020, 01:51:00 PM
Hurricane Delta is a monster...
4 or 5 when it strikes?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Paddy on October 07, 2020, 01:55:21 PM
I wonder if they'll have to bring some of the unused letters into the hurricane alphabet to avoid this mess.

Q: Quentin, Queenie, Qasim, Quincy, Quetzalcoatl...
U: Uther, Ulrich, Ulrikka, Ulysses...
X: Xavier, Xanthe, Xeno, Xena...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 07, 2020, 02:02:32 PM
Paddy:
Even if they did that, we would still have that mess this year, just with Alpha instead of Delta.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Paddy on October 07, 2020, 02:44:55 PM
Paddy:
Even if they did that, we would still have that mess this year, just with Alpha instead of Delta.

There's also Y and Z of course. Maybe going for XYZ names but missing out Q and U might make sense, since Q in particular would come up in many more years than X etc
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: kassy on October 07, 2020, 06:24:10 PM
Thats just naming conventions. You could just number them.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 07, 2020, 06:33:52 PM
Hurricane Delta is a monster...
4 or 5 when it strikes?

Possibly.  However the official forecast is for a category 2 or 3 when it makes landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on October 07, 2020, 07:05:44 PM
Well it looks like Delta is slowly emerging into the Gulf this morning. It sure does look like a monster and has time to reorganize...

I will for sure be listening to both Levi and Mark tonight since they both have really informative videos.

This map shows where the core went over and also the expansion of the wind field:

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT26/refresh/AL262020_wind_history+png/151609_wind_history.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: FrostKing70 on October 07, 2020, 08:48:33 PM
I am hoping the wind shear and dry air intrusion will keep the storm weaker than the models predict.   The people in Louisiana have had enough for hurricane season!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on October 08, 2020, 05:47:58 PM
Well, it appears as though Delta has finally re-developed an eye so the next 24 hours will be interesting to follow. I don't yet know what kind of energy it has to work with, but nonetheless, this is a concern.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 08, 2020, 05:58:00 PM
Forecasts show barely cat 3 before landfall but it can become worse.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 08, 2020, 07:03:44 PM
Forecasts show barely cat 3 before landfall but it can become worse.

It is expected to barely make that cat 3 status in the open water.  Then it is expected to encounter some wind shear before landfall, dropping back down to a cat 2 when it hits the coast.  However, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable, so stay tuned.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on October 08, 2020, 11:27:58 PM
As of the latest advisory from NOAA:

Quote
Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye...

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends, although the various rapid intensification indices are not enthusiastic about the possibilities of this
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2020, 02:23:39 AM
Michael E. Mann: 
When we run out of Greek names, we’ll start naming storms after fossil fuel companies
https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1314323929369063424
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 09, 2020, 03:00:57 AM
John Barnes’ Mother of Storms had to come up with a system to name hundreds of hurricanes in one season, caused by a clathrate outburst.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2020, 04:27:31 PM
Jeff Masters wrote an article yesterday on his “Eye on the Storm” - Yale Climate Connections blog (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/hurricane-delta-has-western-louisiana-in-its-crosshairs/) about Hurricane Delta.

A few things I found interesting:
Quote
...
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters this season have started delivering significant real-time wave height data to the National Hurricane Center from a Ka-band Interferometric Altimeter (KaIA); the data is being posted here (https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/AircraftData.php). On Thursday morning, a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured significant wave heights (the mean wave height of the highest third of the waves) of up to 30 feet inside Delta.
...
Modest damage and no deaths in Mexico from Delta’s landfall
...
... bringing Delta ashore over western Louisiana late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening. The computer models are tightly clustered, giving confidence in this forecast. Delta’s landfall location is likely to be within 50 miles of where devastating category 4 Hurricane Laura made landfall on August 27.
...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: J Cartmill on October 09, 2020, 05:09:53 PM
Delta passed right over a buoy in the Gulf of Mexico (42002). Had 10.8 meter waves.

(https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42002&uom=M&time_diff=-5&time_label=CDT)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 09, 2020, 06:42:37 PM
30' significant wave heights (the mean wave height of the highest third of the waves) [Masters] = 9 m.  I presume this is compatible with measured 10.8 meter waves [buoy 42002].
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2020, 02:23:45 AM
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 10/9/20, 7:02 PM EDT
Quote
BREAKING: #Delta has made landfall near Creole, LA, making history for two reasons:

1️⃣ It's the first Greek-named storm to make landfall in the mainland US, and

2️⃣ 2020 now has the most US landfalls EVER in a season (10), beating a century-old record set in 1916. 
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1314702916138274816
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 10, 2020, 03:03:14 AM
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/9/20, 7:01 PM
You can literally see the storm surge coming in from the Gulf of Mexico on our Creole, Louisiana camera. #HurricaneDelta
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1314702636898308097
45 sec vid at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2020, 03:14:59 AM
Hurricane Delta: Louisiana surveys damage as officials raise questions about federal aid
Quote
LAKE CHARLES, La. — As floodwaters from Hurricane Delta receded from this city, the largest in southwestern Louisiana to be severely hit by two hurricanes in six weeks, residents and city officials on Sunday were still surveying the damage of compounding crises — and wondering how much federal help they can count on.

Power had returned in many neighborhoods and some traffic lights were working again. Some outlying areas were still underwater after a double dose of storm surge from Delta on Friday and Hurricane Laura in August, though water levels had lowered across the city.

Statewide, almost half of all power outages stemming from Delta had been restored by Sunday afternoon, officials said, after peaking at nearly 690,000 — more than during Laura. But in a testament to the storms’ lasting devastation, more than 9,000 Louisianans remain in shelters, most of them people displaced by Hurricane Laura who still need temporary housing, authorities say.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency had previously promised to deliver alternative housing for residents whose homes were destroyed in Laura by mid-October, Mayor Nic Hunter said in an interview Sunday, and the agency said that will still be the case after Delta.

But how much financial assistance this besieged city of 78,000 residents will receive from the federal government is still uncertain, Hunter said. FEMA Administrator Peter T. Gaynor declined to provide assurances that the city will receive full reimbursement for municipal costs incurred during the hurricanes, Hunter said.

The federal government has provided full reimbursement in extreme cases before, the mayor said, including after hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Michael, which made landfall in the Florida panhandle in 2018.

“To have us go through what we are going through right now, and to be treated differently than Michael was in 2018, to me it’s going to be a slap in the face,” Hunter said.
...
With an economy heavily reliant on tourism, Lake Charles was already struggling because of the coronavirus pandemic. Now the city and Louisiana have to recover from a punishing storm season, too. Laura and Delta are believed to have caused billions of dollars in damage across the state, including tens of millions in Lake Charles. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/11/louisiana-surveys-deltas-devastation-wonder-how-much-federal-aid-they-can-expect/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 20, 2020, 11:25:50 PM
As we approach the end of the 2020 tropical season, the global tropical ACE measure stands at 66% of average.  The North Atlantic is at 138% of average, while the eastern Pacific is at 57% of average and the western Pacific a paltry 37% of average.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bbr2315 on October 21, 2020, 08:43:58 PM
The remnant of Epsilon stick around Iceland for a while on the GFS before phasing into this monster and slamming into the UK. It is far out there but an interesting scenario, and the EURO also shows a monster event in the vicinity though it happens way sooner.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020102112/ecmwf_z500_mslp_eu_7.png)

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020102112/gfs_mslp_wind_eu_48.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 25, 2020, 10:01:47 AM
Another tropical storm is aimed at Louisiana.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Paddy on October 25, 2020, 11:18:54 AM
Another tropical storm is aimed at Louisiana.

Louisiana's only on its "maybe" destination list right now. Mexico's Yucatan peninsula is right in its path, though, pretty much exactly where Hurricane Delta already struck recently. Although it looks like the western end of Cuba is going to get caught first. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 25, 2020, 04:57:40 PM
Quote
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 10/25/20, 10:45 AM
We now have Tropical Storm Zeta.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1320375819827634176
⬇️ 8am map below.

Zeta is the 27th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, 1 behind the record of 28 in 2005.
It's also the 4th storm to threaten the Yucatan peninsula this year, and the 7th storm to threaten Louisiana.

Hurricane Delta hit just two weeks ago:

Hurricane Delta at the human scale (with interviews from Cancun and Lake Charles)   - The Phoenix
https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/hurricane-delta-at-the-human-scale
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 26, 2020, 04:45:05 PM
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 26, 2020, 06:19:01 PM
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on October 27, 2020, 04:34:32 PM
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
And come next Tuesday, the remains may be raining from Iceland to Novaya Zemla
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on October 27, 2020, 04:41:22 PM
meanwhile,

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/26/asia/vietnam-typhoon-molave-evacuate-intl-hnk/index.html
Vietnam is preparing to evacuate nearly 1.3 million people ahead of Typhoon Molave, which is expected to make landfall on Wednesday.

Typhoon Molave
, with wind speeds of 125 kilometers (77 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 150 kph (93.2 mph), left the main Philippine island of Luzon earlier on Monday, with heavy rain causing seven landslides and floods in 11 areas, the disaster agency said.
There were no reports of casualties, but 12 fishermen at sea failed to return to Catanduanes province off the country's eastern coast. Molave, known as Typhoon Quinta in the Philippines, was the 17th typhoon to hit the country this year.
It will be the fourth storm to hit Vietnam in a tumultuous month, during which floods and landslides have killed 130 people and left 20 missing in the central region. When Molave makes landfall, wind speeds are forecast to reach 135 kph (83.8 mph).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 28, 2020, 10:10:39 AM
Hurricane Zeta.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 28, 2020, 02:06:26 PM
NWS (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/280900.shtml?) is now predicting Zeta will be a stronger hurricane at landfall then ever previously predicted (100 mph winds - Category 2) (in 10 hours +/- a few)

From Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/tropical-storm-zeta-2020-hurricane-season-breaks-record-earliest-27th-named-storm-1542086)
Quote
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been "extremely active" and with the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta, the season has now broken the record for earliest 27th named storm.

Early Sunday morning, the cyclone went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, earning it the name Zeta in accordance with the Greek alphabet. The last time a hurricane season produced 27 storms was in 2005, when a tropical storm formed on November 29, later turning into Hurricane Epsilon, the last of 15 hurricanes to occur during the season.

The 2005 season also produced a Zeta storm on December 29, the 28th and final named storm of the season.

I find it interesting that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), although above average this year (https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2020/10/14/how-does-this-hurricane-season-compare-), is no where near the top ten years.  (We're currently at about 60% of the top 7 years' ACE average.)  In other words, this year we have lots (and I mean lots!) of weak or short lived storms. For a technical approach, see this Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE_calcs) page.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on October 28, 2020, 03:24:36 PM
NWS (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/280900.shtml?) is now predicting Zeta will be a stronger hurricane at landfall then ever previously predicted (100 mph winds - Category 2) (in 10 hours +/- a few)

From Newsweek (https://www.newsweek.com/tropical-storm-zeta-2020-hurricane-season-breaks-record-earliest-27th-named-storm-1542086)
Quote
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been "extremely active" and with the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta, the season has now broken the record for earliest 27th named storm.

Early Sunday morning, the cyclone went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, earning it the name Zeta in accordance with the Greek alphabet. The last time a hurricane season produced 27 storms was in 2005, when a tropical storm formed on November 29, later turning into Hurricane Epsilon, the last of 15 hurricanes to occur during the season.

The 2005 season also produced a Zeta storm on December 29, the 28th and final named storm of the season.

I find it interesting that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), although above average this year (https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2020/10/14/how-does-this-hurricane-season-compare-), is no where near the top ten years.  (We're currently at about 60% of the top 7 years' ACE average.)  In other words, this year we have lots (and I mean lots!) of weak or short lived storms. For a technical approach, see this Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talk:2020_Atlantic_hurricane_season/ACE_calcs) page.

That is not all.  While the North Atlantic is running about 50% above average, the entire Pacific basin is running 50% below average.  With the Pacific basin accounting for an average of 3x the activity of the North Atlantic, the resulting ACE is about 30% below average.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2020, 03:31:59 PM
Marshall Shepherd: "Been doing the weather thing a while now and don't recall seeing an ice storm warning and Hurricane warning simultaneously and rather close too....”
https://mobile.twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1321162449832316932
⬇️ Map below.

Zeta could be Category 2 Hurricane at landfall late this afternoon
Quote
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Hurricane Zeta continues to show signs of strengthening as it approaches the Southeast Louisiana coast.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Zeta to become a Category 2 hurricane prior to landfall.

As Zeta prepares for landfall, the hurricane is expected to weaken slightly or no longer strengthen. Therefore, a powerful hurricane is taking aim at Louisiana. Landfall is forecast to occur late this afternoon or early this evening along the Terrebonne/Lafourche Coasts.

Zeta’s landfall will mark the record-breaking fifth named storm to make landfall in the state this year.

Zeta will quickly move inland over metro New Orleans and the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain through the evening. Storm surge and strong damaging winds are the main concerns associated with Zeta in these areas. Thankfully, Zeta will be moving through the area very quickly meaning the duration of significant rain, wind, and surge will be brief. ...
https://www.wafb.com/2020/10/28/zeta-could-be-category-hurricane-landfall-late-this-afternoon/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 05:39:19 PM
Tor, that is the opposite of what would be expected of AGW, if I understand it correctly...fewer storms but stronger ones.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 28, 2020, 07:59:01 PM
Who really know what to expect? Tropical cyclones will have more energy in warmer world. But how will they spend this energy?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on October 29, 2020, 01:01:08 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ElcgZqdUcAAsdXs?format=jpg&name=medium)
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321561162622799872

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic ·2h
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that #Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. http://nhc.noaa.gov/#Zeta

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321573524146827265
5 PM CDT Hurricane #Zeta update: The eyewall of Zeta is approaching New Orleans with strong winds, while life-threatening storm surge is ongoing near the coast. http://nhc.noaa.gov/#Zeta

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321589000243564544
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 29, 2020, 03:17:54 PM
Wow, still a tropical storm over westernmost North Carolina (at least, 2 hours ago)!
NWS site (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/115013.shtml?cone#contents)  I have friends who live near Cherokee, NC (under the X).

Sadly (https://www.wdsu.com/article/2-deaths-reported-after-landfall-of-hurricane-zeta/34517800#),
Quote
Three people have died following Hurricane Zeta's landfall in southeast Louisiana Wednesday.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on October 29, 2020, 11:19:12 PM
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/29/13-killed-dozens-missing-after-typhoon-molave-lashes-vietnam
21 killed, dozens missing after Typhoon Molave lashes Vietnam
The fourth storm to hit Vietnam in a month, Molave damaged some 56,000 homes and left millions without electricity.

And now the Philippines gets super typhoon GONI, and later Vietnam gets it as well.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: J Cartmill on October 30, 2020, 03:32:10 PM
GFS model has newly formed 96L wandering around the Caribbean for two weeks.
 Jamaica is still reeling from Zeta flooding.


(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020103006/gfs_apcpn_watl_64.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on October 31, 2020, 07:19:45 PM
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/super-typhoon-goni-intensifies-to-category-5-in-the-pacific-becoming-strongest-storm-of-2020/

Super Typhoon Goni intensifies to category 5 in the Pacific, becoming strongest storm of 2020
Though the storm is expected to weaken ahead of landfall in the Philippines, it's still likely to cause a major disaster.
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Friday, October 30, 2020
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on October 31, 2020, 09:50:47 PM
884 mb / 170 kt (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#22W) (18:00 UTC). Typhoon Goni is something.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2020, 11:00:22 PM
Hurricane alert for our friends in Nicaragua (for Tuesday).  Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205124.shtml?cone#contents) (soon to be Tropical Storm Eta).
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on October 31, 2020, 11:26:07 PM
884 mb / 170 kt (https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#22W) (18:00 UTC). Typhoon Goni is something.
And will make landfall as a super typhoon
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 01, 2020, 09:31:56 PM
Zeta leaves over 2.1 million customers without power and at least 6 dead after battering Gulf Coast - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/weather/hurricane-zeta-thursday/index.html


National Hurricane Center: "Tropical Storm #Eta Advisory 2: Tropical Depression Becomes Tropical Storm Eta. Hurricane Watch Issued For Portions of the Northeastern Coasts Of Nicaragua and Honduras. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc “
https://mobile.twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1322732101708345345
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 03, 2020, 12:42:12 AM
Rapid intensification is a technical term for when storms see a 35 mph increase in wind speed over 24 hours. Eta smashed that definition out of the park and is the second-fastest wind speed ramp up on record, trailing only Hurricane Delta from earlier this year.

Eta was a barely a tropical storm 36 hours ago, with winds of 40 mph. By Monday afternoon, though, it exploded into a Category 4 beast, with winds of 130 mph, and it could strengthen even further ahead of landfall on Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center is calling for “catastrophic” conditions. Along the coast, storm surge could be essentially unsurvivable, with water heights reaching up 18 feet (5.5 meters) above ground.

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_key_messages+png/205343_key_messages_sm.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 03, 2020, 08:57:50 AM
Eta from GOES-E at 07:30 UTC
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on November 03, 2020, 01:12:16 PM
Eta from GOES-E at 07:30 UTC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030854.shtml?
Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. 
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua.  A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 06, 2020, 12:26:16 AM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_key_messages+png/211147_key_messages_sm.png)

https://youtu.be/0UrG3Fx69Ws
... It's still coming!
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2020, 05:44:23 PM
Eta has had quite an odd journey.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 07, 2020, 05:47:27 PM
Tor has a tracker beacon in his pocket and Eta is homing in on it.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 06:23:08 PM
And here I've been saying the reason so many storms went to Louisiana was that someone, obviously, was sinning there.  "Splinters in another's eye," I guess.  :'(  :-[  :o
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 08, 2020, 04:36:04 PM
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...

...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on November 08, 2020, 06:24:11 PM
And where will Eta end up?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/081500.shtml?
Quote
The complex interaction between these two features is
forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development
of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly
stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3.

Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying
solutions ranging from
- a motion toward the south or southwest (UKMET) toward Yucatan,
- to slow northward (ECMWF) or
- northeastward motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sebastian Jones on November 09, 2020, 04:41:44 AM
Unless that sinner in NOLA that Tor mentioned has mended their ways, I imagine ETA will soon settle on a course for the Louisiana coast.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: gerontocrat on November 09, 2020, 06:39:42 PM
Meanwhile the Philippines are going to get another whallop
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: crandles on November 10, 2020, 11:00:59 PM
Theta becomes tropical, the 29th tropical storm of the season beating 2005 record of 28. (Though 2005 was much worse in many other ways.)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 11, 2020, 12:03:42 AM
Might become a Medicane

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT30/refresh/AL302020_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/203827_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 11, 2020, 06:54:38 PM
Climate Change Causes Landfalling Hurricanes to Stay Stronger for Longer
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-hurricanes-stronger-longer.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/98-climatechang.jpg)
(Left) The graph shows that on average, present-day hurricanes weaken more slowly than hurricanes did 50 years ago. (Right) This slowing of intensity means that on average, present-day hurricanes are penetrating further inland at greater intensities. The graph assumes that the hurricanes are hitting land head-on and move forward at a typical speed of 5 meters per second. Credit: OIST

... Many studies have shown that climate change can intensify hurricanes—known as cyclones or typhoons in other regions of the world—over the open ocean. But this is the first study to establish a clear link between a warming climate and the smaller subset of hurricanes that have made landfall.

The scientists analyzed North Atlantic hurricanes that made landfall over the past half a century. They found that during the course of the first day after landfall, hurricanes weakened almost twice as slowly now than they did 50 years ago.

... The researchers found that even though each simulated hurricane made landfall at the same intensity, the ones that developed over warmer waters took more time to weaken.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/99-climatechang.jpg)

"These simulations proved what our analysis of past hurricanes had suggested: warmer oceans significantly impact the rate that hurricanes decay, even when their connection with the ocean's surface is severed. The question is why," said Prof. Chakraborty.

Using additional simulations, the scientists found that "stored moisture" was the missing link.

The researchers explained that when hurricanes make landfall, even though they can no longer access the ocean's supply of moisture, they still carry a stock of moisture that slowly depletes.

When the scientists created virtual hurricanes that lacked this stored moisture after hitting land, they found that the sea surface temperature no longer had any impact on the rate of decay.

"This shows that stored moisture is the key factor that gives each hurricane in the simulation its own unique identity," said Li. "Hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans can take up and store more moisture, which sustains them for longer and prevents them from weakening as quickly."

The increased level of stored moisture also makes hurricanes "wetter"—an outcome already being felt as recent hurricanes have unleashed devastatingly high volumes of rainfall on coastal and inland communities.

... "Current models of hurricane decay don't consider moisture—they just view hurricanes that have made landfall as a dry vortex that rubs against the land and is slowed down by friction. Our work shows these models are incomplete, which is why this clear signature of climate change wasn't previously captured," said Li.

"Overall, the implications of this work are stark. If we don't curb global warming, landfalling hurricanes will continue to weaken more slowly. Their destruction will no longer be confined to coastal areas, causing higher levels of economic damage and costing more lives."

Li et al., Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world. Nature (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 11, 2020, 07:05:34 PM
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT29/refresh/AL292020_key_messages+png/175833_key_messages_sm.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 13, 2020, 10:50:26 PM
"Hurricane Iota expected to form by Sunday; likely to cause catastrophic rains in Nicaragua and HondurasTwenty to 30 inches of rain is predicted for the region, where the devastating Hurricane Eta made landfall just 10 days ago."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/hurricane-iota-expected-to-form-by-sunday/

"The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center’s first advisory for TD 31 at 10 a.m. EST Friday was an unusually aggressive one, calling for the storm to intensify from 35 mph to 110 mph – to the brink of category 3 status – in just 72 hours. According to an analysis of NHC forecasts by Sam Lillo, this is the fastest rapid intensification ever predicted by NHC for a tropical depression. Senior NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake commented in a Friday morning Tweet, “You don’t see NHC forecast 75 mph of strengthening in 72 hours from a tropical depression very often (rapid intensification for that time period, and on a first forecast, too). Speaks to the really conducive environment ahead!”"

Latest NHC forecasts officialise the formation of tropical storm Iota at 40mph sustained wind and forecasts it as a category 3 in 72 hours with 120 mph sustained wind, just incredible in November, what are the odds to get two successive major hurricanes at this stage of the hurricane season without climate change??? and over the same track?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 13, 2020, 11:33:25 PM
^ That's incredible! ...

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT31/refresh/AL312020_key_messages+png/204653_key_messages_sm.png)

Like the Gulf getting hit six times
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Bernard on November 13, 2020, 11:58:29 PM
Might become a Medicane (Theta)

Theta is actually steadily weakening while drifting slowly Eastwards. It's just been a bit of fun yesterday for the leader skippers of the Vendée-Globe race ... and many of the 700,000+ "Virtual Regatta" skippers. Being one of the latter, and well behind, I struggle to reach Theta soon enough to get a taste of it. Was stuck all day East of Azores, with 2 knots of wind :-(
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 15, 2020, 06:56:40 PM
"hurricane Iota overnight intensified into a formidable hurricane over the waters of the southwest Caribbean, and is expected to continue to rapidly intensify Sunday though Monday, becoming a catastrophic major hurricane that will make landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Monday night. Iota will likely bring catastrophic rains of 8-16 inches, with isolated amounts of 20-30 inches, to portions of Central America still recovering from devastating Hurricane Eta, which hit northern Nicaragua as a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on November 3.

Jeff Ernst, a freelance journalist based in Honduras who’s covering the hurricanes and their aftermath on the ground for The Guardian and other outlets, expressed in an email his concerns that that nation is unprepared for another megastorm like Iota. “I’m worried that many levees have been destroyed, dams are at capacity, and there is still a lot of standing water that’s up to the rooftops in spots,” he wrote. “I would think because of those factors it would take less water than during Hurricane Eta to do as much or more damage – though Iota will flood some of the places that are already destroyed.” Damage estimates for Eta’s impact on Honduras are as high as $5 billion – over 20% of the nation’s GDP.

Ernst wrote a Sunday morning article in The Guardian on the threat climate change poses to Central America, including the potential for more severe hurricanes."

"Iota is the tenth 2020 Atlantic named storm to rapidly intensify by at least 35 mph in 24 hours; six out of the last seven “Greek” named storms have rapidly intensified, with only Theta missing the mark"
"According to statistics compiled by Tomer Berg, only in 1995 had 10 rapidly intensifying Atlantic storms occurred in a single year.

Iota is the 13th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year behind only 2005, which had 15 hurricanes, for most hurricanes in a season. If Iota becomes a major hurricane, 2020 would be the first Atlantic hurricane season ever to record two major hurricanes in November. Hurricane Eta was the other major hurricane of November."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/hurricane-iota-rapidly-intensifies-ahead-of-expected-landfall-near-nicaragua-honduras-border/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 15, 2020, 07:24:10 PM
"“In a 36-hour period [Eta] went from a depression to a very strong category 4,” said Bob Bunting, CEO of the non-profit Climate Adaptation Center. “That is just not normal. Probably it was the fastest spin up from a depression to a major hurricane in history.”

The evidence of the influence of the climate crisis is not so much in the record-breaking 30 tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, but the strength, rapid intensification and total rainfall of these weather systems.

“The warmer ocean waters that climate change brings are expected to make the stronger storms stronger and make them rapidly intensify more frequently and at a greater rate,” said Dr Jeff Masters, a meteorologist and contributor to Yale Climate Connections. “These things have already been observed, particularly in the Atlantic, and it’s going to be increasingly so in coming decades.”

Central America has been one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis to date, first with Hurricane Mitch, and in recent years with more extreme weather patterns, particularly in what’s known as the dry corridor, which extends from northern Costa Rica all the way to southern Mexico.

“Heat is energy,” said Masters. “Depending on the prevailing weather conditions you’re going to intensify those conditions.”
In the dry corridor, that has meant more frequent, prolonged and intense droughts as well as heavier rainfall when it does come, often causing flash flooding that washes away crops.

Subsistence farmers in the region have struggled to adapt to the new reality, and many in the region have simply given up and left. The climate crisis – and the hunger it brings – is increasingly being recognized as a major driver of emigration from the region.

“I don’t see a lot of options for Central America to deal with the global warming issue,” said Masters. “There are going to be a lot migrants and in fact, a lot of the migration that’s already happening in recent years is due to the drought that started affecting Central America back in 2015.”

"Hondurans migrated to the US in significant numbers for the first time following Hurricane Mitch. In the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 250,000 Hondurans were apprehended at the US south-west border, more than double any previous year and surpassed only by its neighbor to the north, Guatemala.

According to the Red Cross, at least 2.5 million people were affected by Hurricane Eta, including 1.7 million in Honduras. Many who have lost everything are already considering or making plans to migrate to the US and groups are beginning to organize caravans via social media."

Hurricane Iota could lead to even more widespread devastation across the region. Many areas still have high water levels from Eta, levees have been damaged or destroyed, dams are at or near capacity, and the saturated land could lead to more landslides like in Guatemala, where dozens are feared dead after part of a mountainside community was buried in mud.

The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to last until December this year, meaning that Iota might not be the last.

“When a season like 2020 keeps on cranking these things out, it’s going to keep on doing that,” said Masters."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on November 16, 2020, 08:13:22 AM
Iota is already a category 4 hurricane. Fourth major hurricane this year named with Greek letter.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 16, 2020, 12:10:34 PM
And latest NHC  forecast at  400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020, mentioned that it could be the first ever category 5 in November with potential for 155mph sustained wind, while already a strong cat 4 with 145mph sustained wind.

"Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time."
"Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour" from latest NHC discussion bulletin.

Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on November 16, 2020, 04:10:36 PM
Iota is officially cat 5. November 16. First cat 5 of the season. This year is strange.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: vox_mundi on November 16, 2020, 04:59:05 PM
(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020111606/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_3.png)

(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT31/refresh/AL312020_key_messages+png/145243_key_messages_sm.png)

Expected landfall is the same town that was hit with a Cat 4 last week.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 16, 2020, 05:35:18 PM
A recent image of Iota from GOES-E
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: pearscot on November 16, 2020, 05:51:35 PM
It's wild to me how powerful Iota has become...really a record breaking hurricane. And following along the lines of all 2020 hurricanes, it looks like it will basically hit the exact same spot.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 16, 2020, 06:46:55 PM
... and mid November, the latest and strongest hurricane in November. There has been only one cat 5 hurricane in early November 1932, there has never been two major hurricane in November, and the way Iota has explosively intensified so late in the season is just beyond belief. It is going to be really disastrous in Nicaragua and Honduras two weeks after Iota.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: bluesky on November 16, 2020, 07:23:11 PM
Meteorologist Jack Carstens, has just twitted that this is the first time since 1851 (the start year of hurricane record) that there has been at least one category 5, 5 years in a row.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 17, 2020, 01:19:45 AM
Hurricane Iota nears landfall in Central America as Category 5, humanitarian crisis looms
Quote
In 170 years of record keeping, Iota is just the second Category 5 hurricane on record during the month of November.

Hurricane Iota has gained speed and is now a 160 mph Category 5 storm just hours away from striking nearly the exact same part of Central America that Category 4 Hurricane Eta struck two weeks ago, according to an advisory Monday morning from the National Hurricane Center.

In 170 years of record keeping, Iota is just the second Category 5 hurricane on record during the month of November. The last one was the Cuba Hurricane of 1932.

While meteorologists hustled to put the rarity of Iota's strength for the month of November into perspective, it became clear that an imminent humanitarian catastrophe was likely coming for Nicaragua and Honduras.

These locations are still reeling after Hurricane Eta made landfall Nov. 3 as a Category 4 hurricane, causing loss of life and extreme destruction of property.

Iota is expected to make landfall Monday night as a Category 5 hurricane on the Nicaraguan coast.

The effects expected from hurricane Iota won't just be life-threatening, but in many cases also unsurvivable for anyone without proper shelter.

The storm surge is expected to be up to 15-20 feet along the immediate coastlines. Rainfall of up to 30 inches will result in deadly flash flooding, landslides, mudslides and river flooding.

The winds will be catastrophic with wind gusts approaching 200 mph in some locations.

All of this combined will lead to parts of the region being uninhabitable for weeks, if not months. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-iota-nears-landfall-central-america-category-5-humanitarian-crisis-n1247907
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 17, 2020, 02:35:30 AM
Jeff Masters (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/category-5-hurricane-iota-on-track-to-bring-catastrophic-winds-rain-storm-surge-to-central-america/) writes today in his “Eye on the Storm” blog:
Quote
...
If there is a bright side to this [about to happen Cat 5 Hurricane Iota] tragedy, it is that Iota will be hitting one of the most sparsely populated areas of the Central American coast. Nicaragua proved it could successfully evacuate its vulnerable population before Eta hit the same region two weeks ago, and the official death toll in the nation from Eta totaled two people. As Iota’s most extreme winds and storm surge will be affecting some of the same regions most severely affected by Eta, Iota is not considered likely to cause a great deal of additional damage, as these regions were already mostly destroyed.
...
[not yet formed - see orange area of interest] Tropical Storm Kappa may affect Central America late this week
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Juan C. García on November 19, 2020, 09:20:42 PM
Quote
Slew of rapidly intensifying hurricanes portends trouble in a warming world
Ten storms rapidly intensified this Atlantic season, some to a record degree

It all started with Hurricane Hanna, which swirled in from the Gulf of Mexico to Padre Island, Tex., on July 25. Originally forecast to move into South Texas as a tropical storm, with the biggest threat being heavy rainfall, the storm instead intensified quickly, becoming a strong Category 1 hurricane just before landfall.

Forecasters didn’t know it at the time, but Hanna offered a preview of what was to come during the record-setting and destructive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, as storm after storm underwent a process known to meteorologists as “rapid intensification,” in which storms gain strength extremely fast. This is an especially dangerous process when it occurs close to land, coming too suddenly for coastal residents to escape an exponentially potent storm.

The technical definition of rapid intensification is when a storm’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. This season, storm after storm outperformed this baseline. This includes Hurricane Iota, which intensified at the astonishing rate of 80 mph in 24 hours, before slamming into the coast of northeastern Nicaragua late Monday night.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/hurricane-season-rapid-intensification/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/hurricane-season-rapid-intensification/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on November 22, 2020, 09:58:51 AM
Cyclone Gati in the Arabian Sea.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 23, 2020, 03:45:19 PM
"Tropical Cyclone Gati has rapidly intensified from a 40kt tropical storm to 100kt category 3-equivalent cyclone in 6 hours, and currently making landfall in northeast Somalia. So this stuff is not only happening in the Atlantic.”
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1330550372017074177
➡️ Image at the link.

"Gati is the strongest tropical cyclone that has been recorded in this region of the globe; further south than any category 3-equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. And its intensification from 35kt to 100kt in 12 hours is the largest on record in the entire basin.”
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1330554977870200838
➡️ Images at the link.

"The region of Somalia where Tropical Cyclone Gati is making landfall is the driest part of the country, averaging less than 4 inches (100mm) of rain per year. Gati will bring rain of up to 200mm – two years worth of rainfall in just two days. A disaster.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1330553073757016064

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1330500180735561732
⬇️ Mean annual rainfall image below; others at the link.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Juan C. García on December 05, 2020, 02:04:17 AM
Quote
A look back at the horrific 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
Record after record fell as the 2020 season's storms brought fatalities, economic losses, and paralyzing damages throughout Central America and widespread parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

The 2020 season was notable not only for its record number of named storms (after breaking into the Greek alphabet by the ridiculously early date of September 18), but also for its record number of rapidly intensifying storms (10); and record number of landfalling U.S. named storms (12). Let’s not forget the record-breaking November activity – two catastrophic hurricanes hit Central America in November, including Hurricane Iota, the latest category 5 storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. At least seven hurricanes from 2020 will be worthy of having their names retired: Iota, Eta, Zeta, Delta, Sally, Laura, and Isaias – although there is still no official mechanism for retiring storm names from the Greek alphabet. The record for most names retired in one season was set in 2005, when five hurricanes had their names retired.

Figure 1. Every single mile of the U.S. Atlantic coast was under a watch or warning related to tropical cyclones at some point in 2020. (Image credit: National Weather Service, Corpus Christi)
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/a-look-back-at-the-horrific-2020-atlantic-hurricane-center/ (https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/a-look-back-at-the-horrific-2020-atlantic-hurricane-center/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 05, 2020, 03:16:29 AM
Since much of the season saw Arctic Ice in position #1 or #2, could this have been influenced by the open areas of water?
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: The Walrus on December 05, 2020, 03:27:50 AM
Since much of the season saw Arctic Ice in position #1 or #2, could this have been influenced by the open areas of water?

Hard to say if there was any influence at all.  With regards to hurricane intensity (ace), this year finished 11th.  The top 10 were not particularly noteworthy in arctic sea ice.  The top 5 are 1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, and 1995.
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: El Cid on December 05, 2020, 08:57:57 AM
"The region of Somalia where Tropical Cyclone Gati is making landfall is the driest part of the country, averaging less than 4 inches (100mm) of rain per year. Gati will bring rain of up to 200mm – two years worth of rainfall in just two days. A disaster.”

It is a disaster (many people drown in desert areas during huge cyclones!!!) but it is the way hot, tropical deserts work. Often, one year of rainfall falls in a single day. That is the modus operandi there. That is why it is necessary to create various earthworks (swales, channels, dams, gabions, rock-walls, etc) so that you could use that rainfall. You need to store it in the ground and above the ground the best you can, to sustain life.

One account on how to do it (from saudi arabia):
https://www.permaculturenews.org/2011/01/14/permaculture-at-the-al-baydha-project-in-saudi-arabia-neal-spackman-video-1/

BTW, during the Holocene optimum and the Eemian, as far as we know the ITCZ pushed northwards during NH summer, bringing huge summer rains (a short rainy season) to most of Arabia and the Middle East, making it hospitable for human life (Fertile Crescent anyone?). As our world warms, they need to preapare for more like that.   
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Reallybigbunny on December 16, 2020, 09:57:21 PM
Fiji bracing for Cat 5 Yasa





https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/cyclone-yasa-powerful-storm-to-make-landfall-fijians-told-to-expect-widespread-destruction/BVRUTYIZH25BVEWNUHXADROXVI/
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: KiwiGriff on December 17, 2020, 10:36:11 AM
Cyclone Yasa: Category 5 cyclone hits Fiji causing landslides, flooding, 345kmh gusts, and 14-metre swells.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/123744953/cyclone-yasa-category-5-cyclone-hits-fiji-causing-landslides-flooding-345kmh-gusts-and-14metre-swells

This will be catastrophic.
My thoughts are for all my friends in the Fiji community and for any cruisers stuck there for cyclone season due to NZ boarders being closed. 

Global warming.

More energy = stronger storms.


Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Aluminium on December 17, 2020, 01:54:16 PM
Third mediterranean cyclone this year.

Severe Medistorm "Elaina" forms near Cyprus, landfall expected in Lebanon on December 17 (https://watchers.news/2020/12/16/severe-medistorm-elaina-landfall-forecast-lebanon-december-2020/)
Title: Re: Hurricane Season 2020
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 17, 2020, 07:13:13 PM
Thanks for the link, KG.
US Navy (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?AGE=Latest&ACTIVES=20-SHEM-05P.YASA,20-SHEM-93S.INVEST,20-SHEM-94S.INVEST,20-WPAC-99W.INVEST&SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&NAV=tc&ATCF_BASIN=sh&ATCF_YR=2021&ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2021/sh052021.20121706.gif&CURRENT_ATCF_FILE=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2021/sh052021.20121706.gif&CURRENT=20201217.1720.hm8.x.ir1km_bw.05PYASA.115kts-943mb-172S-1799W.100pc.jpg&CURRENT_ATCF=sh052021.20121706.gif&ATCF_NAME=sh052021&ATCF_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atcf_web/public_html/image_archives/2021&MO=DEC&BASIN=SHEM&STYLE=tables&YEAR=2021&YR=21&STORM_NAME=05P.YASA&ARCHIVE=active&AREA=pacific/southern_hemisphere&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/pacific/southern_hemisphere/microvap/dmsp&DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/TC/tc21/SHEM/05P.YASA/ir/geo/1km_bw&TYPE=ssmi&PROD=gif) shows cyclone's path.