Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Science => Topic started by: Tom_Mazanec on January 23, 2020, 04:46:09 PM

Title: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 23, 2020, 04:46:09 PM
OK, we blew 2019.
Let's see if this year we can reduce CO2 emissions.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: blumenkraft on January 23, 2020, 05:21:09 PM

*fingers crossed*
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 23, 2020, 06:40:18 PM
B_,
That all you got?  :'(
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: blumenkraft on January 23, 2020, 07:50:30 PM
Sadly, yeah!   :-[ :-X
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 24, 2020, 03:49:25 AM
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 24, 2020, 11:18:57 AM
BTW, is there some way I can get monthly estimates of this, or do I have to wait for the end of the year to get the news?
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 26, 2020, 07:56:24 PM
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?

I'm thinking yes unless the economy collapses.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: nanning on January 27, 2020, 06:32:43 AM
Quote from: Shared Humanity
I'm thinking yes unless the economy collapses.

Come on! Let's all live frugal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frugality). Don't participate in bad systems.

Frugality
Frugality is the quality of being frugal, sparing, thrifty, prudent or economical in the consumption of consumable resources such as food, time or money, and avoiding waste, lavishness or extravagance.[2][3][4][5]

In behavioral science, frugality has been defined as the tendency to acquire goods and services in a restrained manner, and resourceful use of already owned economic goods and services, to achieve a longer term goal.[


I'm living frugal for some years now and my life has improved in meaningful ways: Less stuff and ease (lazyness) but an intenser and more meaningful life.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Human Habitat Index on January 27, 2020, 10:20:39 AM
Will CO2 emissions in 2020 break the record just set in 2019 which broke the record set in 2018?

I'm thinking yes unless the economy collapses.

Then we will lose the aerosol masking effect leading to an unprecedented rapid increase in temperature and unleashing amplifying feedback loops.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 27, 2020, 07:50:58 PM
HHI:
Aren’t we losing aerosols anyway from environmental regulations?
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: TerryM on January 28, 2020, 06:27:51 PM
HHI:
Aren’t we losing aerosols anyway from environmental regulations?


Yes, but we're losing aerosols slowly as regulations take effect, rather than suddenly as the result of an economic downturn.
Coronavirus could turn the world, and its economy on its ear within a month. That's probably off topic, but it's difficult to worry about the damage that termites are doing to the structure when the wolves are tearing at the door.
Terry
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: blumenkraft on January 30, 2020, 05:39:17 PM
Per capita CO2 emissions by country

(https://i.redd.it/mnt8im0yvvd41.png)

from Reddit >> https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/ew2sn7/per_capita_co2_emissions_by_country_oc/
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: sidd on January 31, 2020, 05:21:36 AM
USA household footprint:

"While population density contributes to relatively low HCF in the central cities of large metropolitan areas, the more extensive suburbanization in these regions contributes to an overall net increase in HCF compared to smaller metropolitan areas. "

https://coolclimate.org/maps

https://decolonialatlas.wordpress.com/2016/10/08/us-household-carbon-footprint/

sidd
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: vox_mundi on February 19, 2020, 05:31:12 PM
Analysis: Coronavirus has Temporarily Reduced China’s CO2 Emissions by a Quarter
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-coronavirus-has-temporarily-reduced-chinas-co2-emissions-by-a-quarter

As China battles one of the most serious virus epidemics of the century, the impacts on the country’s energy demand and emissions are only beginning to be felt.

Electricity demand and industrial output remain far below their usual levels across a range of indicators, many of which are at their lowest two-week average in several years. These include:
All told, the measures to contain coronavirus have resulted in reductions of 15% to 40% in output across key industrial sectors. This is likely to have wiped out a quarter or more of the country’s CO2 emissions over the past two weeks, the period when activity would normally have resumed after the Chinese new-year holiday. (See methodology below.)

Over the same period in 2019, China released around 400m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2), meaning the virus could have cut global emissions by 100MtCO2 to date. The key question is whether the impacts are sustained, or if they will be offset – or even reversed – by the government response to the crisis. ...

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/4e7c12153c593a63f9b6319459782c42206a64f7/0_0_924_581/master/924.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=b07f30d3a251930f691767812577546b)

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/ea882270a51da805ebfc9e843301a3291ed070a0/0_0_926_581/master/926.jpg?width=780&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=e23c8ce3d5205a92daaf6a956d8c9d66)

https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/

Coronavirus Outbreak Slashes China Carbon Emissions
https://phys.org/news/2020-02-coronavirus-outbreak-slashes-china-carbon.html
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 01, 2020, 01:41:55 PM
With a world recession looking likely this should lower carbon emissions this year.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 10, 2020, 12:05:34 PM
Just remember when everyone is high-fiving the drop in emissions, there will be long term damage. Here's a flash back to 2012 -  *4* years after the financial crisis & *after* Obama was reelected to his *final term* he still didn't have the political capital/cover to act on climate because the need to "focus on the economy."  https://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/obama-says-climate-change-to-take-backseat-to-economy-083865 (https://www.politico.com/story/2012/11/obama-says-climate-change-to-take-backseat-to-economy-083865)
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Ken Feldman on April 20, 2020, 08:54:07 PM
One side effect of the Covid-19 shut ins, carbon emissions may have peaked.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/the-coronavirus-crisis-means-we-may-have-already-reached-peak-carbon.html (https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/the-coronavirus-crisis-means-we-may-have-already-reached-peak-carbon.html)

Quote
The coronavirus crisis means we may have already reached peak carbon
Published Mon, Apr 20 2020

The coronavirus crisis will likely lead to the largest ever decline of global carbon emissions on record, according to research from Goldman Sachs, illuminating the potential for a long-term low carbon recovery.

The Covid-19 outbreak has meant countries around the world have effectively had to shut down, with many governments imposing draconian restrictions on the daily lives of billions of people. To date, confinement measures have been implemented in 187 countries or territories in an effort to try to slow the spread of the pandemic.

Quote
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note that they expect energy-related carbon emissions (which account for two-thirds of total greenhouse gas emissions) to fall by at least 5.4% this year alone.

To be sure, that’s roughly five times that of previous crises, with the potential for “much larger” declines depending on the length of disruption to the transportation sector and industrial activity.
“Energy-related emissions have always rebounded post crisis,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said, citing data which showed carbon intensity improvements in the year after every major crisis since the 1970s.

“This time could be different as we have potentially already reached peak energy-related carbon,” they added.

Quote
The IEA’s Executive Director Fatih Birol has since argued that progress made in transitioning the energy production mix could mark 2019 through to 2020 as the definitive year for peak energy-related carbon emissions.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 01, 2020, 07:13:31 PM
The IEA is forecasting that 2020 carbon emissions will fall 8% from last year.

https://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/CO2-Emissions-Expected-To-Fall-To-8-Year-Lows.html (https://oilprice.com/The-Environment/Global-Warming/CO2-Emissions-Expected-To-Fall-To-8-Year-Lows.html)

Quote
CO2 Emissions Expected To Fall To 8-Year Lows
By Irina Slav - May 01, 2020

The International Energy Agency expects carbon dioxide emissions to decline by 8 percent this year due to the devastation the coronavirus wreaked on energy demand.

The agency said in the new edition of it Global Energy Review that the annual drop in oil demand this year could reach 9 percent, which translates into a loss of 9 million bpd. This would make 2020 oil demand equal to the average levels in 2012.

Coal demand will also fall substantially, by 8 percent, the IEA said, driven by lower electricity demand. The same is true of natural gas demand, although the authority did not provide specific demand drop figures for full-2020, although it did mention that gas demand fell by 2 percent during the first quarter.

There is good news for renewables, however. According to the IEA, demand for energy from renewable sources will actually increase this year, bucking the trend. This would be possible thanks to low operating costs and “preferential access to many power systems”.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Hefaistos on May 16, 2020, 07:22:51 AM
Latest forecast is down 11% in USA CO2 emissions

"After decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 11% (572 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19. CO2 emissions decline from all fossil fuels, particularly coal (23%) and petroleum (11%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. "

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 09:35:38 AM
Latest forecast is down 11% in USA CO2 emissions

"After decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 11% (572 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19. CO2 emissions decline from all fossil fuels, particularly coal (23%) and petroleum (11%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. "

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
A complete disruption of the world's financial & economic systems including mass unemployment results in perhaps an 8% drop in CO2 emissions.

So how the hell is the world going to manage a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030?
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: kassy on May 16, 2020, 11:18:24 AM
I suspect we kicked the can down the road at least two decades too long.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Hefaistos on May 16, 2020, 10:32:01 PM

A complete disruption of the world's financial & economic systems including mass unemployment results in perhaps an 8% drop in CO2 emissions.

So how the hell is the world going to manage a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030?

Well, we have the power of exponential growth, so we also have the power of exponential decline :)
E.g., 11 % reduction per year brings us all the way down to a 72% reduction in 2030:

2020   11%
2021   21%
2022   30%
2023   37%
2024   44%
2025   50%
2026   56%
2027   61%
2028   65%
2029   69%
2030   72%

To get a reduction with 45% we need to reduce yearly emissions by 6%. Certainly feasible. Especially as market forces help us with the renewables phasing out coal, and later on natural gas.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 18, 2020, 09:01:27 PM
Latest forecast is down 11% in USA CO2 emissions

"After decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 11% (572 million metric tons) in 2020. This record decline is the result of restrictions on business and travel activity and slowing economic growth related to COVID-19. CO2 emissions decline from all fossil fuels, particularly coal (23%) and petroleum (11%). In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by 5% as the economy recovers and stay-at-home orders are lifted. "

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
A complete disruption of the world's financial & economic systems including mass unemployment results in perhaps an 8% drop in CO2 emissions.

So how the hell is the world going to manage a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030?

The stimulus efforts to recover from the economic disruption should invest in renewable electricity production, electric vehicles and electrifying other sources (heating, industrial applications) currently done with fossil fuels.  There's a lot of low hanging fruit.

Also, the changes forced by Covid-19 prevention will become voluntary choices in the future.  I suspect many workplaces that can will switch to telework and virtual meetings instead of locating in large offices and face-to-face meetings.  This will reduce transportation emissions, construction (as less office space will be required) tourism and other sectors. 
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Ken Feldman on May 19, 2020, 06:46:32 PM
A just published study in Nature Climate Change states that global CO2 emissions are now down 17% due to the Covid-19 lockdowns.  With different assumptions about the recovery from lockdowns, the annual reductions will range from 4% to 7%.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0797-x)

Quote
Published: 19 May 2020
Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
Corinne Le Quéré, Robert B. Jackson, Matthew W. Jones, Adam J. P. Smith, Sam Abernethy, Robbie M. Andrew, Anthony J. De-Gol, David R. Willis, Yuli Shan, Josep G. Canadell, Pierre Friedlingstein, Felix Creutzig & Glen P. Peters


Abstract

Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO2 emissions during forced confinements. Daily global CO2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ±1σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO2 emissions path for decades.

Main

Before the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide were rising by about 1% per year over the previous decade1,2,3, with no growth in 20193,4 (see Methods). Renewable energy production was expanding rapidly amid plummeting prices5, but much of the renewable energy was being deployed alongside fossil energy and did not replace it6, while emissions from surface transport continued to rise3,7.


Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: gerontocrat on May 21, 2020, 06:54:13 PM
A just published study in Nature Climate Change states that global CO2 emissions are now down 17% due to the Covid-19 lockdowns.  With different assumptions about the recovery from lockdowns, the annual reductions will range from 4% to 7%.
Just listened on radio4 to the prof who was in charge of the study.

The 17 % reduction was in early April when lockdowns were at their peak. Considerably less now.

I think she reminded us that 8% reduction every year from now was needed for the (unlikely)  restriction of Temp increases to 1.5 celsius.

She also reminded us that this event now gives us the scale of the task before us, that electrification of transport was the key, and that all depended on how Govts react:-
Option 1 :- all hands to the wheel, just do it!
Option 2 :- consigned to the too-hard basket (per attached)
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: vox_mundi on July 02, 2020, 10:02:34 PM
CO2 Emissions May Have Peaked, But That's Not Enough
https://www.axios.com/co2-emissions-peaked-climate-change-paris-deal-8a447d76-5678-4b4b-84fc-4dcabfd6b24a.html

(https://images.axios.com/2h12DM1BgTt-Ao_5JxfzEnE87hU=/0x0:2400x1350/1024x576/2020/07/02/1593694849905.png)

More analysts are making the case that COVID-19 could be an inflection point for oil use and carbon emissions, but it's hardly one that puts the world on a sustainable ecological path.

Driving the news: The risk advisory firm DNV GL, citing the pandemic's long-term effects on energy consumption, projects in a new analysis that global CO2 emissions "most likely" peaked in 2019.

- And, per Reuters, the firm also argues that the pandemic has accelerated the global oil demand peak by several years, which they now believe also occurred in 2019.

- Separately, Bloomberg reports on a new Citigroup group analysis which finds: "Oil product demand growth will falter significantly, change its contours and never return to pre-COVID-19 rates of growth."

Why it matters: These new reports are the latest to take stock of the pandemic's unprecedented shock to the energy system and the lasting effects.

But it's also a reminder that the demand reduction and carbon emissions decline that's happening for tragic reasons is not even close to enough to hold warming significantly in check.

Threat level: "Even with peak emissions behind us, and flat energy demand through to 2050, the energy transition we forecast is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver the Paris ambition of keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels," the DNV GL analysis states.

"To reach 1.5-degree target, we would need to repeat the decline we’re experiencing in 2020 every year from now on."

The bottom line: "t's always important to emphasize that peaking emissions does not stop the world from continuing to warm," Hausfather, who is affiliated with the Breakthrough Institute and the research group Berkeley Earth, tells me via email.

"CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, so to stop warming we need to get emissions down to net-zero. Peaking is just the first (and easiest) step on the long road to zero emissions," he said.

... and then there's deforestation and positive feedback loops.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: kassy on July 03, 2020, 01:05:22 PM
If we lose the Amazon that would add a whole lot of carbon and the permafrost is already emitting more carbon then it absorbs and that will only get worse.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 05, 2020, 04:34:04 PM
So we are 10 pandemics away from solving climate change. I'll talk to some bats and pangolins I know.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: Ken Feldman on July 14, 2020, 07:00:41 PM
US CO2 emissions are forecast to decline by 12% this year.  However, they may increase in 2021 (albeit still well below 2018 levels) if we ever get our act together on the Covid front.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20annual%20average%20U.S.,million%20b%2Fd%20in%202021. (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20annual%20average%20U.S.,million%20b%2Fd%20in%202021.)

Quote
EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, after decreasing by 2.8% in 2019, will decrease by 12.2% in 2020 and increase by 6.0% in 2021. This forecast is highly dependent on assumptions regarding the economic impact and subsequent recovery from COVID-19 mitigation efforts. In addition to economic growth, energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, energy prices, and fuel mix.

Note that the forecast for 2021 assumes that natural gas prices will rise enough for coal to increase its share of electricity production.  Once again the EIA ignores all of the renewable projects in the pipeline.
Title: Re: 2020 CO2 emissions
Post by: NotaDenier on August 24, 2020, 03:21:47 AM
https://www.inverse.com/science/why-co2-levels-are-still-rising-during-the-pandemic

COVID-19 HAS CURTAILED THE ACTIVITIES OF MILLIONS OF PEOPLE across the world and with it, greenhouse gas emissions. As climate scientists at the Cape Grim Baseline Air Pollution Station, we are routinely asked: Does this mean carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have fallen?

The answer, disappointingly, is no. Throughout the pandemic, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels continued to rise.