Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 12:46:46 PM

Title: COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 12:46:46 PM
Per TerryM's suggestion, here is a dedicated thread on the epidemic.
Let's hope this thread fizzles in a month or two.
Till then, here is the blog TerryM mentioned:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 25, 2020, 01:36:22 PM
Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem.

Apparently this virus doesn't have a very high mortality rate. It's mostly older folks dying, indicating you need to be ill for it to become life-threatening. Also, it seems to be that the Chinese government is doing a good job containing the virus. I think they learned from their SARS disaster.

I hope i'm right on that...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 25, 2020, 01:51:17 PM
- Mortality seems to be 5%, I wouldn't call it low

- Containment is so successful that it is already present in Europe and USA

I hope it fizzles out...for the next couple of decades epidemics like this are more dangerous than AGW...If anything like the Spanish flu comes up, it could mean 0,5-1 billion dead
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: The Walrus on January 25, 2020, 02:22:02 PM
- Mortality seems to be 5%, I wouldn't call it low

- Containment is so successful that it is already present in Europe and USA

I hope it fizzles out...for the next couple of decades epidemics like this are more dangerous than AGW...If anything like the Spanish flu comes up, it could mean 0,5-1 billion dead

That mortality rate is based on known hospitalized cases, most of whom were part of a more susceptible  population (elderly, sick, etc.).  The mortality rate among the general population coming in contact with the disease is suspected to be half that - still something to take note of.  However, it is still early, and new information is coming into light daily.  Currently, I would agree with blumenkraft, that it is more fearmongering that a serious problem. 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: pietkuip on January 25, 2020, 02:54:46 PM
Judging by footage from a hospital in Wuhan, it is a serious problem over there.

An epidemic would also overwhelm healthcare here in Sweden. Which patients would be given the few available respirator beds when there are too many very sick people?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 25, 2020, 02:56:43 PM
I would agree with blumenkraft, that it is more fearmongering that a serious problem. 

Nice, Walrus, we agree! I like it. ;)

Let me just add, i deliberately didn't say 'low', El Cid! !!
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: nanning on January 25, 2020, 03:23:09 PM
Thanks pietkuip.

blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fearmonger#English
Noun
fearmonger (plural fearmongers)
    Someone who spreads fear, or needlessly raises the alarm.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 05:17:15 PM
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Avalonian on January 25, 2020, 05:34:20 PM
I've been following this closely, since I'm meant to be heading out there in a few weeks' time for my annual research visit..!  :o

Basically, it appears to be far, far worse than it appears. The level of quarantine imposition, combined with numerous reports from the hospitals in Wuhan and elsewhere, familiarity with the culture and how it works normall, plus some first-hand information from friends in Jiangsu Province imply:

1. The mortality rate is substantially understated, as most of the ones 'not dead' are still ill, and we're in the rapidly expanding infection stage. We don't know the actual figure, but I've seen many suggestions that it's probably somewhere between 15 and 30%, with treatment.
2. It is incredibly effective at spreading, mimicing a normal 'flu for the first week or more, and in some cases being asymptomatic but still contagious. The first papers out suggest an ro of 3.8ish, which is extremely high... but some medical staff in China have been claiming it is much higher still (estimated 14).
3. It's really not contained. We won't know whether it's spreading outside China for another week or ten days, when the next generation of infected people start to show symptoms.

Basically, we don't know the answers yet, but do not believe the stated figures. Keep a very close eye on this one. I really hope I'm wrong, but I fear I'm not - this is starting to look truly horrible.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 25, 2020, 05:42:33 PM
blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

I mean, politicians and media are fearmongering all the time. It's like their main function. It's not necessarily a conspiracy but just how the world works. If they conspire or not, the powerful exploit this fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: nanning on January 25, 2020, 05:44:20 PM
Avalonian, thanks for the information.

Question: Are you going to travel by aeroplane?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 25, 2020, 06:21:24 PM

Thanks for the thread!

I've a dear friend whose parents are in Jinan, ~450 miles from the epicenter. I'll be talking to her tonight.
I'm not ready to pack up provisions and head into the bush to wait this thing out, but I am fearful for what this could become.
China is working as well as only the Chinese can, but no one has ever attempted quarantines at anything like this scale.


I've a dinner tonight and expect 20 or 25 to attend. If anyone has the sniffles I'll cut out early without shaking hands.
Stay Healthy
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 06:26:11 PM
So if we cannot trust the statistics we don’t know how fast the cases are doubling?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 25, 2020, 06:52:16 PM
2. It is incredibly effective at spreading, mimicing a normal 'flu for the first week or more, and in some cases being asymptomatic but still contagious.

This does make it a lot harder to contain.

The statistics for these things are always a problem since we don´t know how many cases are asymptomatic and we also don´t know how reliable the numbers are.

Interesting things to look out for:
Does China lock down more cities?

What happens to the cases in EU or US? Is there human to human infection there?

They should also do contact tracing of the passengers on the flights....

And then the total official numbers.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Avalonian on January 25, 2020, 07:10:40 PM
Looks like we won't be going at all, Nanning... the developments are so rapid that it's hard to keep up, but I seriously doubt we'll even be able to get travel insurance at the moment! Rumours suggest Shanghai and Beijing will be isolated next week, and if Xi is admitting the rapid accelaration, it means they're preparing to release larger numbers in their statistics.

     That said... the statistics cover formally tested patients/victims, and most of the bodies are apparently being cremated as soon as possible.  I've seen videos with bodies lying next to patients in packed hospital corridors, sometimes with a doctor or two lying alongside. From the sound of it, there are no numbers available, and nobody is bothering to test for confirmation - at least in Wuhan, the hospitals appear to be in chaos.

Terry, do contact your friend in Jinan, and I hope for the best for them. I have many friends in Nanjing, and they're geting very worried, as you would expect.

Things to look for in relation to a worst case scenario: more official statements of how serious it is, combined with stated numbers of infected/dead increasing abruptly (means China doesn't think they'll be able to keep it under wraps); full lockdown of most Chinese cities; appearance of the virus in other countries in non-Chinese patients (probably within a week); and closing of international borders. As I say, I really hope I'm wrong.   :-\
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on January 25, 2020, 07:15:43 PM
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?
Already affected the price of crude, share price of airlines, major hotel chains, tourism operators.
Chinese economy will be hit as is happening at Lunar New Year, when people go home to their parents. Hundreds of millions of people should be on the move, restaurants hotels and leisure facilities at their busiest.

If the outbreak is contained the effect will be temporary. If it spreads (internationally as well as in China) and is long-lasting then all bets are off.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 25, 2020, 07:15:56 PM
we cannot trust the early info from local officials who were obviously downplaying things . Even if this has changed it is likely that we are still playing a gradual catch-up to the truth , or exactly the opposite .. an ever growing cover-up .
  This is far more contageous than SARS . I anticipate a minimum of 25 million dead worldwide and a collapse of health services . If I was in govt anywhere i would be urging retired doctors and nurses out of retirement and preparing for disaster . Even if my fears are overblown it would be a valuable exercise as the mess that is China's wildlife markets and meat production makes future epidemics a near certainty .
  World economy may well shrink unless it really is killing only the old and ill but this seems doubtful . If survival is dependent on intensive care then .. oops . b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: The Walrus on January 25, 2020, 07:35:47 PM
blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

I mean, politicians and media are fearmongering all the time. It's like their main function. It's not necessarily a conspiracy but just how the world works. If they conspire or not, the powerful exploit this fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule

Yes.  It is a case of bad news sells.  No conspiracy
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: dnem on January 25, 2020, 07:40:59 PM
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?

Certainly might:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-china-economy.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 07:43:53 PM
Now We Are Being Told That The Incubation Period For The Coronavirus “Can Be Around Two Weeks”
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/now-we-are-being-told-that-the-incubation-period-for-the-coronavirus-can-be-around-two-weeks
Quote
The more we learn about this mysterious new coronavirus, the more frightening this outbreak becomes.  As you will see below, we are now being told that the incubation period for this virus “can be around two weeks”.  That means that there could be countless numbers of people all over the globe that are carrying this virus around without even knowing it.  In fact, a woman that returned to Chicago from China on January 13th was not exhibiting any symptoms when she arrived.  So even if she had been “screened” at the airport, they would have let her through anyway.  But now it has been confirmed that she has the Chinese coronavirus, and she is in the hospital at this moment…
Yeah, this guy likes to cry "Wolf!"
But remember, in the end the wolf did come.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 25, 2020, 07:47:11 PM
Did a little digging into coronaviruses on the internet, and came across the article tracing SARS to bats.   The article is 3 years old and very prevalent to what is happening right now.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 25, 2020, 08:27:22 PM
This individual claims the R0 of this virus is....  14.0

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=TQnMM-YNJw8&feature=emb_logo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=TQnMM-YNJw8&feature=emb_logo)


Translation:  I ’m still in the epidemic area of ​​Hankou, Wuhan, and I ’d like to report to you the current epidemic situation in Hubei and even the whole country.

There are now more than 90,000 person-times (Note: Infected person-times?)

What is the chance of this virus being transmitted? After a person is infected, if he is not effectively isolated,

Or if effective treatment is performed, he will infect 14 people around him, so this level is very large.

Now it ’s the time of the Chinese New Year family and friends, relatives, children, and children are all going to the house to reunite the family together for a reunion dinner

The situation is special now. I hope you do n’t go out.

Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere

Let me introduce you to the situation of medical supplies in Hubei Province

At present, the entire medical system in Wuhan, which integrates the entire medical system in Hubei Province, has passed through our superiors. The health and health committee (Note: these three words are uncertain)

And various administrative departments
 

The municipal government and the provincial government are initiating donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material. For example, the goggles I wear

Wear disposable masks, wear disposable gloves, wear this gown, or even isolation pants.

This material is extremely accurate. Our current medical staff must come back to the front line when they come down from the clinic.

I am now equivalent to recording this video with everyone on the FireWire, in order to make everyone accurate.

I stress again that during the Spring Festival holiday, do n’t go out and stay in your own house, otherwise I ’m desperately ahead

Not just to keep my dad, my loved ones, healthy

I hope everyone can understand, I also know that some relatives are not in the group, please see the news of me, call each other and inform

It must be done. I hope everyone can raise awareness. This is a political task.

And I ’m reporting very bad news. This new type of coronavirus has undergone the second generation mutation

In other words, in the first generation of mutation, we can treat it symptomatically.

Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.

Then it is pour burst (note: these five characters are uncertain)

I hope everyone remembers, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t meet, do n’t have dinner

thank you all
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 25, 2020, 09:53:24 PM
Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.


This is probably some misinterpretation.
Person to person spread already indicates airbourne transfer. There is no reason why that would stop at one except travelling with one person during the incubation.

So this observation is probably a miss interpretation of the amount of cases coming in which is a function of the spread pattern and time.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 25, 2020, 10:59:47 PM
From zerohedge:

This Is How China Is Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths
Quote
The problem is that even as China theatrically pretends to be so forthright about the extent of the epidemic - if only to avoid panic and chaos over allegations it is again hiding the full impact of the disease - it is doing precisely that, and now we know just how it is doing that: instead of putting down coronavirus as the cause of death for an unknown number of Wuhan casualties, China's coroners and hospitals merely ascribe death to "viral pneumonia", case closed.

UK Researcher Predicts Over 250,000 Chinese Will Have Coronavirus In Ten Days
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days
Quote
Needless to say, while 2.5 is quite high, and in line with that of the Spanish flu epidemic  which infected about half a billion people back in 1918, killing as many as 100 million before it eventually fizzled out, the real coronavirus R0 number may end up being far higher. That is the working hypothesis of Jonathan Read, a UK expert on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases, who has published a paper with four colleagues that estimates transmission parameters for the Wuhan coronavirus, calculates that the R0 of 2019-nCoV to be between 3.6-4.0 or roughly the same as SARS, and reaches a conclusion about spread of the coronavirus epidemic that is frankly terrifying.

In "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions", Read et al, write that with an R0 of between 3.6 and 4.0, roughly 72-75% of transmissions "must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing."

This is a major problem because Read estimates that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan are identified (as of Jan 24), "indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease." Furthermore, since all of this is happening in China which is not known for making the most socially-beneficial decisions under pressure, there is an ominous possibility that Read is actually overly optimistic.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 25, 2020, 11:24:33 PM
I wouldn't pay much attention to zerohedge as a source.  Conspiracy theories galore there.

That doesn't mean the coronavirus infection isn't gravely serious, however.

I've long had an interest in influenza, SARS, and pandemics in general.  I'll share a few impressions.

In terms of contagiousness and overall mortality, this seems quite similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic ("Spanish flu," though that is a misnomer.)  A number of books and documentaries would be worth perusing.

That epidemic preferentially struck young adults, which is very unusual for respiratory viruses.  This coronavirus seems more typically to target the elderly and those with chronic health problems.

The SARS virus was probably more lethal, but far less contagious.

Modern advances in infectious disease have done essentially nothing to inhibit the spread of respiratory viruses.  Every winter, a substantial fraction of the word's population gets influenza (and that's despite vaccines and antiviral medications, neither of which are available for this virus).  I can't see any reason to believe this virus won't spread worldwide, very quickly.

I would guess that most of the world's population will be exposed/infected within a year.  The worst suffering will be those who become critically ill when health systems are overwhelmed.  Becoming a hermit for a time may be the best preventive approach.  I personally doubt that face masks are terribly useful.  Hand sanitizers may be more effective.  Shaking hands in greeting should be ceased.  The hand sanitizers are usually just gelled ethanol.   In a pinch, vodka makes an excellent substitute.  For acute emotional distress, oral administration may be useful.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 26, 2020, 12:28:11 AM
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view)

Key Findings

Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.


● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 12:49:17 AM
How Contagious Is The Coronavirus?
https://www.peakprosperity.com/how-contagious-is-the-coronavirus/
Quote
Okay, with that as context, let’s parse through this.  To begin, I completely disagree with the notion that making elevated claims during a pandemic is “unhelpful.”

Why? Because what’s helpful during a pandemic?  I would suggest an overabundance of caution and swift reaction by authorities and the general public.

I already think that letting people travel while simply scanning them upon arrival for a fever is criminally negligent.  I would vastly prefer a much more reactionary response.

People like Jabr fit comfortably within the Overton Window where it’s always polite to downplay risks and act as if the State has things firmly under control.  You get invited to a lot more parties if this is your stance.

So, I take the opposite view of Jabr on this.  I think overreacting is appropriate when the facts are still fluid and nobody knows truly what’s going on.  I happen to think it is Jabr’s stance that is unhelpful and probably harmful.  If “panicking” means reacting swiftly on incomplete data, then by all means ‘panic’ when a pandemic comes along.  That’s just my view.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 26, 2020, 01:12:13 AM
The Role of Wild Animals in the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
https://time.com/5770904/wuhan-coronavirus-wild-animals/

We are seeing cases of pneumonia without fever or cough, which makes the control of this outbreak more difficult.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 26, 2020, 01:35:37 AM
In a vegan world ..

 unconnected to that ^^ thought .. it would have been hard to design , locate and time a more perfect launch for a virus attack on modern humanity . Considering the truely perilous situation in which the world economy exists very little more need happen before we see things unravelling .
 
Has the 2 legged locust just been 'sprayed' by nature 'raw in tooth and claw'  ?  ..  b.c.

 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 26, 2020, 08:02:36 AM
.. it would have been hard to design , locate and time a more perfect launch for a virus attack on modern humanity . Considering the truely perilous situation in which the world economy exists very little more need happen before we see things unravelling .
 

The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

On another thought (the vegan line): Most serious infectious disease comes from association with animals. Maybe humanity should reconsider its diet and habits....
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: philopek on January 26, 2020, 09:21:38 AM
when you find your kids and/or grandkids yelling for help in the pool just to find out that they're pulling your leg, what would most of you say tell them (hey dad, here grand-dad)

one day there will be a real pandemie with tens of millions invected and death and then we can tell that most were not taking proper action in time after so many hyped false alarms.

look at the data below, put the numbers into relation with population, travel habits and numbers and speed of spreading over several days and then inform yourself about what is already known scientifically about this virus and i think we should delete this thread and not further add to the fearmongering hype.

BTW i wated 14 hours before writing this to :

a) check whether anything would change

b) to find the better than initial tone ;)

as to the economy, those who are responsible always need a reasonable trigger to blame to get away with their fraudulent scam to plunder billions of people. i talk about accumulated wealth and their political puppets. hence each similar event can indeed be used to trigger the next financial and economical crisis, probably starting with a stock-crash that is certainly in the making, looking at some obvious bubbles ( high stock prices without obvious reasons  and more )

so yes, pandemic events are very likely among the possible next large scale reduction in world population and can indeed be used as trigger events for economical collapse but:

THIS IS NOT IT


Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 09:49:36 AM
philopek:
This may or may not be it. I was afraid Ebola would be it a few years ago and I was wrong. So I may be worrying about nothing again. But you admit it is likely to happen someday, and in the early stages it will not look like much, just as AGW did not look like much when it was discovered over a century ago (actually considered beneficial).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on January 26, 2020, 10:24:27 AM
CNN just reported a third case in the US in Orange County, CA

Quote
The following places outside mainland China have confirmed cases:

    Hong Kong: 5 cases
    Macao: 5 cases
    Thailand: 5 cases
    Australia: 4 cases
    Malaysia: 4 cases
    Singapore: 4 cases
    France: 3 cases
    Japan: 3 cases
    South Korea: 3 cases
    Taiwan: 3 cases
    United States: 2 cases [now 3]
    Vietnam: 2 cases
    Nepal: 1 case
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 26, 2020, 10:46:25 AM
Philopek,

You could not be much more wrong. The world today is a highly interconnected place with rapid movement of people everywhere. Any rapidly transmitting virus or even many other pathogens have the potential to spiral wildly out of control in no time flat. You assert flatly that this is not a pandemic to be concerned about.

Consider... the parameters we now know.

1) the R0 was first estimated at ~1.5 - 2.4. That is now more likely about 4. Our history with corona viruses (SARS in particular) track with the data so far. If this virus plays out like SARS the R0 will rise to the 5 - 7 range. That isn’t a change in the virus. That is a change in both data availability and population conditions. Viruses with R0s this large are extremely infective.

2) the mean observed incubation time is 6.4 days with the patients likely being asymptomatic and infective for at least one of those.

3) Lancet researchers estimate (rightly or wrongly) that the official counts most likely represent a bit over 5% of total actual infections. This is not at all surprising with a 6.4 day average incubation period.

4) those most severely affected are over about 55 years in age. With two thirds of those admitted to hospital being male.

5) of those admitted who have either died or recovered, the number dying slightly exceeds the number surviving. Since it takes a few days longer to survive and be discharged than to die, the temporal base for these indices is not correlated. A more reasonable estimate is 30-40% of those being fatal. About 4% require intubation and ventilation. About 5% suffer cardiac injury. These all require massive health services, with enormous amounts of protective gear. Even at current levels the hospital staffs are being exhausted and overwhelmed. Exhausted people make errors. So far two of the doctors that have become infected have died. More will. These are front line warriors in a war zone.

Based on the full population, the case fatality rate is no less than ~0.75%, and likely no more than 40%. It appears likely that the CFR is in the 4 - 20% range. SARS CFR was ~10%. This is a close relative. And that is a likely average For 2019-nCoV as well. We won’t know the true average value for a while yet, and until better data is available that traces groups of people what the actual values are. 

6) SARS is a bio safety level 3 (BSL3) vector. 2019-nCoV appears to be a BSL3 or 4 virus - i.e. extremely dangerous.

7) lunar new year celebrations in China constitute the largest mass migration of people on earth. This event happened right on top of those celebrations. This facilitated the widespread movement of infected persons during the incubation period. As a consequence tens of millions of Chinese are now in quarantine. The virus is present in every province. And the count of infected persons is growing at a rate approximating a growth of 1.32 - 1.41 fold every day.

At this growth rate, if quarantine, education and other actions are not able to contain the spread, every person on earth will have been exposed and likely infected by the later half of April.

At the moment, there are few known infected persons outside of China. Few enough that containment might occur. That is slight comfort to the 1.437 billion citizens of China. Despite enormous and unprecedented efforts in China, the disease shows every sign of being out of control and pandemic.

Best estimates place the count of infected today at 5,000 - 10,000, though the actual count may be vastly higher.

If this is indeed pandemic inside China, and if the CFR is ~10% matching SARS, that projects to 144 million Chinese (predominantly older and male) ultimately dying. The impact on China and the world will be enormous if that comes to pass - which is why I think that the Chinese are mobilizing the most massive response to a disease outbreak that has ever occurred. It is doubtful frankly that any other country could do this.

With a likely R0 of 4, and an average generation time of 6.4 days, and a current infected pool of 6,000 people, without quarantine succeeding, this plays out as follows.

Feb 1 - 24,000 infected
Feb 7 - 96,000
Feb 14 - 384,000
Feb 20 - 1.45 million
Feb 27 - 5.8 million
Mar 6 - 23 million
Mar 12 - 92 million
Mar 19 - 370 million
Mar 25 - the entire population of China.

Admission to hospital for those that ill occurs shortly after symptoms. Intensive care follows about 3 days later. For those who survive the mean time to recovery is now about 23.5 days. So by mid-April this first wave will have finished in China.

The only opportunity to stop this from playing out is to aggressively stop it now. Choosing to stick ones head in the sand because the absolute numbers are small now, assures that a catastrophic pandemic happens.

And even if the disease is contained in China, in the quarantined zones, in certain districts... the impacts are likely to be large. And what happens to and in China in a globally connected world is not limited to China. Even the impacts on production of goods in a highly connected just-in-time world are massive to the global economy and hence to everyone on earth.

These are not worst case numbers. These are most likely numbers, based on the most recent data, if containment and control fail.

8 ) more over, this virus has an animal host. If that host is as has been suggested either bats or snakes, propogation and reinfection in the wild is a small risk. If on the other hand this virus can and does infect birds, especially ducks - then all bets are off on containment.

We already know from flu, which cycles through humans, birds and pigs primarily, that transmission from bird droppings under the flyways is a major route of spread. If this virus infects ducks, well - there is no effective control.

In a somewhat more hopeful vein, there are a couple of experimental antivirals that may be effective. These have already been used in emergencies with Ebola and other corona viruses.

Throughout this early period, there are serious difficulties in assembling accurate data. Often that data is not temporally correlated. You can’t for example just take the ratio of deaths so far to known infections as a gauge. This is an exponential problem. You have to instead follow individual cases through from beginning to end to get accurate information. Lacking that, model fits using parameters from related viruses give a decent estimate.

There are also lag periods from infection to symptoms to counting, to resolution to reporting. These seriously distort the apparent seriousness in ways that can easily mislead people into believing that this isn’t a big deal - when it is actually an out of control pandemic.

Successfully intervening and stopping a pandemic is not much better. It is just luckier. As a result, the analogies to kids in a pool is just plain wrong.

At the same time, there is a large body of people who quickly and eagerly ascribe all sorts of motivations that do not exist, and who see conspiracies that don’t exist hiding under every rock and behind every tree. These are not helpful. They are in fact hurtful in several serious ways.

Sam

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 26, 2020, 10:57:14 AM
I should also note that most of the world does not have the legal ability to do what the Chinese are doing.

Strict enforcement of rights and liberties makes containment vastly harder and vastly more likely to fail. With one to several hundred cases outside China (both confirmed infections and suspected infections), the chance that this pandemic escapes China is very high.

And if that comes to pass, we may reasonably expect over 700 million deaths as a result - before the end of May! We must bend every effort to assure that does not happen.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 26, 2020, 11:19:28 AM
  philopek , I suppose Xi declaring the situation 'grave' could be considered the equivalent of a child pretending to drown but I'm not so sure . It would be an unusual path for a leader , hyping up a 'false alarm .
  Indeed .. look at the figures .. It would appear obvious the first few weeks of spread in China was not apparent ( or supressed ) otherwise the numbers would appear on your graph . Do you not expect a similar exponential curve outside China ?
  the accelerating rate of infection is causing the gradual shutdown of the world's mega factory . Just in time delivery may be challenged and transport hubs could find their essential staff missing .
  but no worries .. lets shut this thread down .. along with the scare-mongering threads fearful of climate change ; after all it may never happen .. especially if we are all dead ( :) )
  and yes El Cid .. employment has never been higher but job security has never been lower . The world has never been so in debt .. the same £ or $ has never been on loan to so many at one time ..

and thankfully a ban today on the sale of wild animals .. but there was already one in place . Maybe this outbreak will end some of the ongoing appalling treatment of animals . b.c.

ps .. thank you Sam !

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 26, 2020, 11:46:13 AM
look at the data below

Here's a link to the data you refer to:

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Click the map at the bottom for updates.

Quote
We developed an online dashboard (https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 26, 2020, 12:18:35 PM
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 26, 2020, 12:41:56 PM
Thanks Sam
Well researched and well written!


We had our 1st suspected case in Toronto last night, so I opted out of a planed dinner engagement. The patient tested positive, but the result hasn't been confirmed yet?


Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 12:48:40 PM
During the Ebola epidemic my cousin advised me to skip a Halloween party, but I went anyway.
Still, I was a contributor to a thread analogous to this one on a Peak Oil forum (remember I was a POer before I was an AGWer). I don’t blame you, TerryM.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: philopek on January 26, 2020, 12:51:27 PM
Risk "very low": The Robert Koch Institute sees little danger from the corona virus for Germany. According to the experts, the risk of importing the disease is "low". The risk to the population is estimated to be "very low".

Low death rate: It is not yet possible to say with certainty how high the death rate of the new pathogen is, says Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine. "According to current data, it could be similar to the last wave of influenza in Germany." However, there is a high number of very mild and therefore unrecorded diseases in both infections, and the actual death rate could therefore be much lower. So far, there have been serious illnesses, especially among older people and people with previous illnesses, says Oliver Witzke, Director of the Clinic for Infectious Diseases and the West German Center for Infectious Diseases at the University of Essen, the "Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland" (RND) Germany. The corona virus is not particularly aggressive, the death rate is much lower than that of Sars.

Hardly contagious: According to experts, the novel corona virus is still a hardly contagious pathogen. Most of the cases still affect the metropolis of Wuhan, the virus has not spread very much, said Schmidt-Chanasit. In addition, hardly any hospital staff were infected, and the cases in other countries have not yet been transferred to other people. "In many cases, the virus only passes to another human being, and then the infection runs dead," he explained. Long transmission chains from one to the next, as with Sars, have so far not existed, or at most only sporadically, with the new virus. "There can sometimes be a sick person who infects many others, but the virus is mostly not passed on or passed on to just one other person." According to WHO information, people have only been infected through close contact with infected people, in the family or in practices and health centers. "There is rather no infection from contaminated objects," said Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM). It is currently suspected that the virus is mainly found in the lower lungs and less pronounced in the upper airways. This would mean less contagion potential, since it is wider from lung to lung than from nose to nose.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 26, 2020, 01:26:30 PM
"Hardly contagious:...
In many cases, the virus only passes to another human being, and then the infection runs dead," he explained. Long transmission chains from one to the next, as with Sars, have so far not existed, or at most only sporadically, with the new virus. "There can sometimes be a sick person who infects many others, but the virus is mostly not passed on or passed on to just one other person."

Is this consistent with confirmed cases numbers:

20 Jan 278
21 Jan 326 17% per day increase
22 Jan 547 68% per day increase
23 Jan 639 17% per day increase
24 Jan 916 43% per day increase
26 Jan 1979  116% per 2 days increase

It doesn't sound like it. However, it isn't impossible because there is so much more info needed to put it in proper context. e.g. if the testing had been limited but has been ramped up, the extra confirmed cases may be expected as a result of testing catching up.

However locking down a few cities doesn't sound consistent with this "Hardly contagious" assessment.

Sounds more like a we don't want people panicking yet when there are no cases in Germany so for the moment we will downplay it.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 02:07:54 PM
A third case of coronavirus is confirmed in the US as China struggles to contain outbreak
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/us/coronavirus-orange-county/index.html
Quote
At least 56 people have been killed by the coronavirus in China, nearly 2,000 confirmed cases have been reported as the nation struggles to contain the outbreak.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 02:59:53 PM
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.

bluice, on that PO forum I mentioned, they have a thread about the coronavirus https://peakoil.com/forums/wuhan-coronavirus-t77487.html . A poster (non de cyber 'Cog") there made an interesting observation. China has an export based economy, they are already suffering from the trade war and prosperity is important to the regime's stability (the last is my own observation). He points out that it is odd that China would do something like this for a virus less dangerous than the flu when it would endanger their economy. He speculates that it may have escaped from a biowar laboratory. Well, I'm not going that far since that is unlikely (not impossible). At least we only have to worry about Mother Nature and Biowar labs. In another decade or two we will have to wonder about teenage biohackers as well.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 26, 2020, 03:24:12 PM
Woohoo, that's some batshit crazy shit your Cog guy is vomiting there.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 03:34:22 PM
The observation about China is not batshit. The speculation about germ warfare may be, but these days you can’t be positive any more (AIDS being engineered is batshit...it existed in 1959 which is much to early for it to be artificial).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 26, 2020, 03:48:55 PM
Maybe random posters on a PO forum are not the best sources.

Off course this is an extraordinary measure but it is a logical one faced with a new contagious disease which we do not have vaccines for.

If the cases are still largely clustered in Wuhan and the other quarantained cities this stops spread from people living there travelling to other places in China to visit people for the new year which should slow down the spread.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 26, 2020, 03:52:12 PM
The observation about China is not batshit.

Or is it?

Let's start with this one: Who is saying they 'suffer' from the tariffs? The US is only one of the many customers China has. It's a pathetic US-centric 'argument'.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 26, 2020, 03:55:09 PM
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 03:55:36 PM
blumenkraft:
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 26, 2020, 03:57:23 PM
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet

This refers to the climate, not a virus.

I should change it temporarily. ;)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 26, 2020, 04:08:36 PM
blumenkraft:
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.

Thanks, Tom. :)

Next one:  'and prosperity is important to the regime's stability'

It's an authoritarian regime with a great success story to tell. Actually, most Chinese people feel pretty free and save, don't want the government to change. Even if there was a dent in growth, this wouldn't bring people to the streets or something (remember, that's rather dangerous). A dent in growth still means they grow way more than the west. Most people made it out of poverty by now. These people saw their country go from third-world to an influential international player in their lifetime. Consider them loyal.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 26, 2020, 04:40:16 PM
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.

bluice, on that PO forum I mentioned, they have a thread about the coronavirus https://peakoil.com/forums/wuhan-coronavirus-t77487.html . A poster (non de cyber 'Cog") there made an interesting observation. China has an export based economy, they are already suffering from the trade war and prosperity is important to the regime's stability (the last is my own observation). He points out that it is odd that China would do something like this for a virus less dangerous than the flu when it would endanger their economy. He speculates that it may have escaped from a biowar laboratory. Well, I'm not going that far since that is unlikely (not impossible). At least we only have to worry about Mother Nature and Biowar labs. In another decade or two we will have to wonder about teenage biohackers as well.

"Les dangerous than the flu" In the US 10 % of the population gets the flu every year. Less than 0,01 % of these infected people die. With this kind of virus somewhere between 5 and 15 % of the infected people die. And it's airborn like the flu. So it has the same potential of spreading. We can only pray that China manage to contain it.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 04:44:23 PM
Yes, Alexander555, that’s the point he and I are making.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 26, 2020, 05:03:20 PM
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet

This refers to the climate, not a virus.

I should change it temporarily. ;)


 damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another ..
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 26, 2020, 06:14:29 PM
Well, China did not do this for SARS or the flu, so this is something worse.

EDIT: For the sake of balance:
A Note on Coronavirus: Don't Panic
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/a_note_on_coronavirus_dont_panic.html
Quote
I am not suggesting that we not remain alert, nor am I suggesting that we cast caution to the winds, but this present coronavirus will probably be nowhere near as deadly as many Chicken Littles are predicting.
Now, the American Thinker is probably to the Right of Rush Limbaugh so I don't know how this bias will affect the article.

EDIT 2:
On the third hand:
5 million residents left Wuhan before lockdown, mayor reveals, as 1,000 new confirmed cases expected in city
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak
Quote
About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 26, 2020, 08:23:22 PM
I'm reposting these from the the Pathogen thread for reference ... 

---------------------------------------

Exercise Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqa7NHq73xM&feature=youtu.be&t=2675 (... definitely watch this)

U.S. Government Mock Pandemic Exercise Killed 150 Million People. Next Time It Might Not Be a Drill. (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/30/this-mock-pandemic-killed-150-million-people-next-time-it-might-not-be-a-drill/)
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/30/this-mock-pandemic-killed-150-million-people-next-time-it-might-not-be-a-drill/

(https://www.stripes.com/polopoly_fs/1.530121.1527690929!/image/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_490/image.jpg)

... This past May, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (CHS) led an exercise (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/index.html) involving current and former high-ranking U.S. government officials on how the country would respond to an international outbreak of an engineered pathogen. In this fictional scenario (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-exercise-presentation-slides.pdf), a terrorist group constructed a virus that was both deadly and highly contagious. More than a year into the made-up pandemic, the worldwide death toll was soaring past 150 million (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqa7NHq73xM&feature=youtu.be&t=2675), the Dow Jones had fallen by 90 percent, and there was a mass exodus from cities amid famine and unrest.

... The advisers were asked to give recommendations to a fictional president (who remained offstage). They received briefings and news reports as the exercise progressed. Their consensus advice was repeatedly ignored and overridden by the president for short-term political reasons.

The fictional outbreak kept getting worse.... “We didn’t want to have a Disney ending,” Inglesby said. “We wanted to have a plausible scenario. We did know it would be jarring.”

Quote
... The Johns Hopkins pandemic exercise, as some of the audience members noted, took place one week after the top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic left the administration and the global health security team he oversaw was disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

Exercise: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/clade-x-resources

Definitely check out the scenario slides - It gives one pause... http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-exercise-presentation-slides.pdf

RealTime Outbreak Map: http://outbreaks.globalincidentmap.com/

---------------------------------------

Map Tracks Coronavirus Outbreak in Near Real-Time
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2020/maptrackscor.jpg)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering has built and is regularly updating an online dashboard for tracking the worldwide spread of the coronavirus outbreak that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

The site displays statistics about deaths and confirmed cases of coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, across a worldwide map. It also allows visitors to download the data for free.

"We built this dashboard because we think it is important for the public to have an understanding of the outbreak situation as it unfolds with transparent data sources," Gardner said. "For the research community, this data will become more valuable as we continue to collect it over time."

Making the data available for download is "critical" for researchers, she added.

... The website provides a link to a downloadable Google Sheet that contains information on confirmed and suspected cases in more than 30 Chinese locations as well as for the nations of Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Colombia, Brazil, Australia, Mexico, and the United States. One case has been confirmed in Washington state.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

---------------------------------------

Pandemic, Netflix Series About Doctors, Scientists Fighting Viral Disease Outbreaks, Carries a Dire Warning
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/entertainment/article/3047604/pandemic-netflix-series-about-doctors-scientists-fighting

https://youtu.be/1nmmWePN1jE

-----------------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 26, 2020, 08:47:04 PM
Coronavirus Contagious Even in Incubation Stage, China’s Health Authority Says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

... “There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.

To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

----------------------------

5 Million Residents Left Wuhan Before Lockdown, Mayor Reveals, as 1,000 New Confirmed Cases Expected in City
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak

... Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”.

... As the pressure has mounted on Wuhan’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.

Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier.

Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Test kits have been mostly unavailable.

Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of the 100,000 needed in Hubei each day.

And during the Lunar New Year holiday, manufacturing capacity was only about 40 per cent of normal, he said.

The government was working to acquire the 50,000 protective contamination suits China produces for export every day to send to Hubei, he said. (Too bad, the U.S. was expecting those -- guess someone is going to have a shortage soon)

Ma said that Beijing was aware there was a shortage of medical supplies and that the relevant authorities were seeking to source them in “every possible way”.
Wang Jiangping, vice-minister for industry and information technology, said at the press conference that China was pursuing various channels, both at home and overseas, to source the required supplies.

--------------------------------------

The NHC also issued a nationwide plan on containing the epidemic by locking down certain neighbourhood communities in both urban and rural areas.

In the case of a neighbourhood community or village having two confirmed cases, it could be declared an epidemic zone and sealed off, it said.


------------------------------

... “Online rumors say that an anti-Aids drug has been used and proved to be effective in treating the coronavirus,” according to a statement by Beijing Municipal Health Commission. “The National Health Commission has recommended the rumored names to treat the coronavirus before and we have Lopinavir/Ritonavir in stock in Beijing,”

New research on 41 Wuhan coronavirus cases in China published in Friday’s edition of The Lancet medical journal noted “substantial clinical benefit” from use of the medication in treatment of Sars, a coronavirus epidemic that swept through China in 2002 and 2003.

However, the authors – experts from numerous medical research institutes in mainland China – also said no such treatment method had been proven.

“No antiviral treatment for coronavirus infection has been proven to be effective,” according to the article published in The Lancet. “In a historical control study, the combination of lopinavir and ritonavir among SARS-CoV patients was associated with substantial clinical benefit (fewer adverse clinical outcomes).”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: FrostKing70 on January 26, 2020, 08:47:28 PM
The recent announcement that people are contagious prior to showing symptoms is very troubling to me.   I haven't found information in incubation duration prior to becoming symptomatic yet...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: etienne on January 26, 2020, 09:07:05 PM
 My wife read between 1 and 14 days. But things seem to be evolving.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 26, 2020, 09:07:48 PM
The recent announcement that people are contagious prior to showing symptoms is very troubling to me.   I haven't found information in incubation duration prior to becoming symptomatic yet...

Open Access: Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan, et.al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster
https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301549.pdf

... As shown in this study, it is still crucial to isolate patients and trace and quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible (as shown in one of our patients)

-----------------

... Longtime adviser to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called Dr. Ma’s remarks a “game changer” and said the information called into question the United States’ strategy for containing the virus. Officials are set to repatriate Americans from the center of the outbreak.

“When I heard this, I thought, ‘Oh dear, this is worse than we anticipated,’” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told CNN. “It means the infection is much more contagious than we originally thought.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/china-coronavirus.html

--------------------------------

Just a personal observation ...

Whether or not they are effective ...

Went to CVS, Walgreens, and Rite-Aid (U.S. National Pharmacies) and noticed that ALL the SURGICAL MASKS were SOLD OUT/ or on Back-Order.

Home-Depot/Lowes has particulate masks N95/goggles/disposable gloves that serve the same purpose in the Safety Supply Section of the Power Tools Dept.

---------------------------

CDC Recommendations: ... recommended personal protective equipment or PPE (e.g., gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 26, 2020, 09:22:50 PM
World Health Organization Chief to Meet Chinese Officials in Beijing as Coronavirus Deaths Rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/world-health-organization-chief-to-meet-chinese-officials-in-beijing-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise.html

... The WHO said it needs more data before declaring the virus, which is spreading through human-to-human contact, a global health emergency. “Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China,” Ghebreyesus said on Thursday. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

----------------------------

Passenger Removed after Coronavirus Scare on Flight from Las Vegas to Baltimore
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/passenger-on-flight-from-las-vegas-to-baltimore-treated-for-flu-like-symptoms/

... The sick passenger and his wife were taken off the plane first, but other passengers were held on the plane while doctors talked on the intercom.

Rowe saw the coronavirus in the news, but the in-flight situation got her thinking.

"I really never thought about it until today."
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 26, 2020, 09:25:00 PM

The only opportunity to stop this from playing out is to aggressively stop it now. Choosing to stick ones head in the sand because the absolute numbers are small now, assures that a catastrophic pandemic happens.


Quite right.  Respiratory viruses tend to be highly contagious, and modern practices have done little to alter that reality.

Even these early numbers suggest exponential growth.  This is not surprising, this is what epidemics do when transmission cannot be controlled.

With an incubation period of up to 14 days, we can be confident that the current spread of the virus is far wider than the case numbers currently suggest.

Even educated people often underestimate the implications of exponential growth.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 26, 2020, 09:40:43 PM
Via Svein Tveitdal on Twitter (https://twitter.com/tveitdal/status/1220989343608852480):

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 26, 2020, 10:05:40 PM
Fifth US Case of Coronavirus Confirmed as China Warns People Can Spread the Virus Before They Feel Ill
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/us/coronavirus-orange-county/index.html

Update: A fifth US case of coronavirus has been confirmed, in Arizona, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Sunday.

Health officials confirmed two cases of coronavirus in Southern California -- bringing the total to four cases in the United States -- as a top Chinese health official delivered some worrisome news about efforts to contain the fast-moving virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified Orange County health officials Saturday that a potential case of coronavirus tested positive, while Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced Sunday that the CDC had confirmed another case in a person who had "presented themselves for care" after falling ill.

In addition to California, cases have been reported in Illinois and Washington state. The Illinois woman had not been sick while traveling from Wuhan to the US on January 13, said Dr. Jennifer Layden, an epidemiologist with the Illinois Department of Health, on Friday.

----------------------------

Right now the rate-limiting step to identify this virus is the lack of a specific test kit in sufficient quantity to identify it.

Two weeks ago the primers for the PCR test for this virus did not exist. Without primers there is no test.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-primer-probes.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf

Right now you can count the number of labs that test for this virus on one hand. Until production of the primers gears up the number testing will remain glacial. Actual infected numbers are probably an order of magnitude (or two) higher.

... The CDC is preparing test kits to be sent to state health departments so that they can test for the virus instead of having to send samples to the C.D.C. for testing, but it will be a few more weeks before the kits are ready, Dr. Messonnier said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 27, 2020, 12:38:04 AM
Good news and bad.

The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4. If true, this will slow the exponential explosion of cases from extremely terrifying to terrifying. It is important to remember though that all of these parameters are distributions not fixed numbers. We do not yet know for this virus whether there are “superspreaders” - people who remain essentially symptomless while spreading disease to large numbers of people.

The incubation or latency period is being reported as 1-14 days with a likely average of 10 days before   symptoms are apparent. Transmission has occurred in as little as 5 days, perhaps less. This makes containment and detection vastly harder. It also dramatically increases the likelihood of the outbreak becoming global. The use of temperature (fever) detection as an indicator of potential disease is made much less viable for control.

The case fatality rate and age distributions remain highly uncertain. 10% fatality remains likely. Whereas the age distribution for severe effects looked to be heavily weighted toward those over 55, that is now in doubt. Fatality gender remains highly skewed toward males at 70%. That may still be an artifact of underlying disease history, reporting, treatment bias, small sample size errors or other factors. It may not be indicative of real factors.

I have as yet seen no information or evidence regarding genetics and vulnerability. I.e. are some populations more vulnerable than others. Such information won’t be available unless and until the virus breaks out of the Chinese population.

It is important as we move forward to remember that all of the various parameters inevitably suffer from a variety of biases. These are all inadvertent. Parameter estimates will change. Second, all of these parameters are the midpoints or modes of distributions. Those distributions themselves may be very important. Do not take single point values as telling everything important. Third, a lot of this data remains temporally uncorrelated. This can have dramatic impacts on parameter estimates.

There are now five confirmed cases in the US. Two others appear likely. So far, contact tracing and control remains viable. With a long latency to symptoms that may not continue to hold true for small infection pools (I.e. outside of China). Inside China, the virus is now pandemic. 

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 27, 2020, 12:46:54 AM
...
There are now five confirmed cases in the US. Two others appear likely. So far, contact tracing and control remains viable. With a long latency to symptoms that may not continue to hold true for small infection pools (I.e. outside of China). Inside China, the virus is now pandemic. 

Sam

Thanks for the thorough update.  We might hope that the severity of this epidemic in Wuhan might relate to the poor air quality.  Less irritated respiratory tracts might show better resilience.

If this is true, this might relate to the peculiar gender ratio in hospitalized cases.  I imagine tobacco smoking is more common in males than females.

Time will tell.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 27, 2020, 01:28:16 AM
According to the Grauniad this evening (UTC):

Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn)

Quote
About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

“Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”

Although no one has yet tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, Labour called on the government to reassure the public that the NHS could cope with an outbreak when it is already struggling with the winter flu season.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded. We need urgent reassurance from ministers they have a plan to ensure we have capacity in place to deal with coronavirus should we need to.”

Priti Patel, the home secretary, insisted on Sunday that the government was taking “all precautions”, despite criticism it had been slow off the mark to find and give information to the thousands of people in Britain who had flown back from Wuhan in recent weeks.

Prof Martin Dove, a British academic, said no one from the UK government had tried to contact him regarding the coronavirus outbreak despite recently returning home from working in Wuhan.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2020, 01:39:15 AM
British Medical Journal. Published 24 January 2020.
Quote
Is this an international emergency?
WHO met on 22-23 January to determine whether the situation should be deemed a public health emergency of international concern but decided against it. However, the committee will reconvene “in a matter of days to examine the situation further.” Many believe it’s only a matter of time that an emergency is declared.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wdmn on January 27, 2020, 01:46:35 AM
The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4...

Not sure if this paper is more recent than your source, but:

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1
Title: Re: Chinese coronaviru
Post by: Sam on January 27, 2020, 02:48:30 AM
The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4...

Not sure if this paper is more recent than your source, but:

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

It’s really hard to tell. The data sets that each of the half dozen or more individual researchers and groups are using are not coincident. The time frames for each also vary and are not necessarily reflected by the date their studies are published.

A better analysis would likely look at that in two ways -

1) as a meta analysis that pools the data, while being careful to avoid double and triple counting. That might result in an R0 that is more representative of the average. And that might be about in the mid 3’s with a range of variation and a range of uncertainty.

2) as a timeline analysis that attempts to determine if the R0 is a) changing based on conditions, or whether it is changing because of small number randomness effects, or c) something else.

There are other confounders to consider as well.

Until the data is representative of a larger population sample, the numbers are likely to change. And though that seems confusing, the takeaway remains that this is a highly contagious rapidly spreading disease.

It’s also important to bear in mind that the tests for this virus are brand new and in limited supply. There is also a strong bias to not count things as nCoV and instead consider them as seasonal flu unless and until proven otherwise. This may strongly bias the counts and parameters in very bad ways.

More even than all of this, this is a chaotic situation, and chaotic situations drive uncertainty to be larger. That is not a reason to presume that the lack of confirmed data means things are better. Doing so could be dangerous and result in tragedy.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 27, 2020, 03:29:09 AM
Wow. Thanks for all the updates. Now, where did I put that box of N95 masks?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 27, 2020, 03:54:16 AM
China coronavirus: demand for face masks surges amid short supply in Hong Kong as government denies accusation it stockpiled safety gear for internal use
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047721/china-coronavirus-demand-face-masks-surges-amid

The demand for masks has continued to surge in Hong Kong as three more cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were confirmed, causing prices of the safety gear to soar and forcing the government to deny accusations it had stockpiled them for internal use.

Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung Kin-chung on Sunday said that the Department of Health and the Hospital Authority had enough supplies of the protective coverings to cope with contingencies for three months.

But some local media platforms suggested the government had amassed a stockpile of up to 100 million masks, leading to its shortage in the market.

The government, however, denied the allegation, stating that the logistics department, which supplied surgical masks to various other agencies, had obtained in 2019 a monthly supply of an average of 1.1 million masks made by Hong Kong’s prison inmates and gave out “almost the same” quantity.

... a sudden surge in the demand for masks has left Hongkongers scrambling for the safety gear, with pharmacies reporting no supply. Some shops on Sunday afternoon charged as much as HK$230 (US$29.59) for a box of 50 surgical masks, which normally costs HK$61.32 on Amazon.

When the Post visited about 10 pharmacies in Wan Chai and Causeway Bay areas on Sunday evening, it found half of the shops closed for the Lunar New Year, while others had run out of stock.

“We’ve placed orders last week, but masks are yet to be delivered,” a salesman at Sincere Pharmacy in Wan Chai said.

At least two Watsons stores – one of Asia’s largest health care chains – also had no masks in stock. “We have not had any masks since last Friday,” Ben, a salesperson at a Watsons store on Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, said. He could not say whether the store was expected to receive new stock soon.

City resident Dorothy Chung Sheung-po said she found shops selling boxes of 50 surgical masks for as much as HK$500 (US$64.33).

https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak.

-----------------------------

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

... “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

... Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

... Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 27, 2020, 05:05:31 AM
Surgical masks? It is my understanding that surgical masks are there mostly to protect the patient and provide a minimum form of protection to the surgeons. A properly used surgical mask helps protect others and offers minimum protection to the wearer. If everyone wears it, then no one is contagious. Do it for long enough and the epidemic is contained.

I truly hope the government is not hoarding these masks.

Although a surgical mask is light, cheap and offers some protection, a properly fitted N95 is the way to go for personal safety. Make sure you shave before you wear it. Make sure your hair doesn't get caught in the mask and the strap is secure. And be ready to be hot and uncomfortable at room temp.

But nothing beats hand washing for personal and group safety. Wash your hands often.

Surgical gloves are a good idea too if caring for a sick loved one.

Sunlight may be the best disinfectant when it comes to corruption, but bleach is the disinfectant I trust. Buy bleach of the highest purity you can find, for me it is the Clorox brand. Make sure it doesn't have fragrances or anything else added to it. If you have good bleach a dilution of 10 parts bleach and 90 parts water left to air dry for 30 seconds will do the trick for pretty much anything that can harm you. If things get bad clean with bleach. Else stay away from it because it is overkill 99.999% of the time.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 27, 2020, 09:15:36 AM
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/some-practical-questions-about.html
Quote
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I've been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven't found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on January 27, 2020, 09:48:30 AM
It's quite possible that this link might have been posted further up this thread but this John's Hopkins sourced, regularly updated presentation seems to be giving an accurate picture of the global situation.

I have a significant interest as my son and his family (three granddaughters) are in Singapore.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 27, 2020, 10:09:34 AM
It's quite possible that this link might have been posted further up this thread but this John's Hopkins sourced, regularly updated presentation seems to be giving an accurate picture of the global situation.

I have a significant interest as my son and his family (three granddaughters) are in Singapore.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

And the source data - slightly more up to date, but in Chinese.

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Human Habitat Index on January 27, 2020, 10:14:30 AM
Just to put things in perspective -

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 27, 2020, 10:20:46 AM
This one appears to be a fact check site >> https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia_rumors
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 27, 2020, 11:51:01 AM
The Guardian has another constantly updated blog online.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-china-death-toll-climbs-to-80-with-more-than-2700-cases-live-updates (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-china-death-toll-climbs-to-80-with-more-than-2700-cases-live-updates)


The 14 days of asymptomatic contagion sources is a game changer in my eyes.
For 2 weeks an infected person attends school, goes to work, takes vacations and interacts with friends and family with no knowledge that he's a danger to anyone. Those he infected have have an additional 2 weeks before they develop symptoms, 2 weeks in which to infect the next generation of carriers.


Is our data 2 weeks behind the curve, or further?


We've difficulties getting enough kits to diagnose those exhibiting symptoms. How will those in their first two weeks of asymptomatic infection be identified and isolated?


Western Nations seem determined to break the quarantine WRT their own nationals. That seems a foolish/ungrateful response to the rather heroic Chinese attempt to internalize the problem, or at the least to provide some time for the rest of the world to prepare.


Stay home & Stay healthy
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on January 27, 2020, 02:44:33 PM
Terry

Will China become a great big 21st century Eyam and be respected for its actions?

https://schoolhistory.co.uk/notes/eyam-and-the-great-plague/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2020, 03:12:20 PM
British professional medical journal, The Lancet

Quote
Alex Psirides (@psirides) 1/26/20, 10:45 PM
The Lancet have created a hub page for all things coronavirus here:
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

https://twitter.com/psirides/status/1221640346146234370

- It includes this editorial which is #FOAMEd:
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30186-0.pdf
[See next post.]

- And this paper (also open access):
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5.pdf on 41 patients confirmed with 2019-nCoV infection

- Of n=41, 29% had ARDS, 32% admitted to ICU, 15% mortality. n=2 received ventilation & ECMO. pic.twitter.com/oU4qAY18BP
- The @WHO have published 'interim guidance' clinical Mx guidelines here:  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/clinical-management-of-novel-cov.pdf?sfvrsn=bc7da517_2&download=true
which essentially tell you how to manage sepsis (including not using starch or gelatins)
- (there is no mention of Vitamin C either)
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Images below.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2020, 03:16:02 PM
Editorial from the British professional medical journal, The Lancet

Published January 24, 2030
Emerging understandings of 2019-nCoV

“There is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency...WHO is following this outbreak every minute of every day”, said Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, on Jan 23. A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak is emerging, but it is not yet a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). As we went to press, more than 500 cases have been confirmed in China, as well as in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and the US. The virus can cause a severe respiratory illness, like SARS and MERS, and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed. These characteristics are driving China’s urgent public health actions, as well as international concern. But much remains unknown. The pieces of the puzzle that is 2019-nCoV are only now beginning to come together.

Today, we publish the first clinical data from individuals confirmed to be infected with 2019-nCoV from Wuhan, China. Chaolin Huang and colleagues provide comprehensive findings for the first 41 laboratory- confirmed cases. 27 of these 41 cases had direct exposure to the Wuhan seafood market that is thought to be the initial site of infection from an animal source. All had viral pneumonia. The severity of illness is concerning: almost a third of patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring intensive care; six patients died; five had acute cardiac injury; and four required ventilation.

Separately, Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan and colleagues report clinical and microbiological data from a family of six people who had travelled to Wuhan and later presented with pneumonia to Shenzhen Hospital in Guangdong province. Five were identified as infected with 2019-nCoV. Notably, none had been to the Wuhan market, but two had visited a Wuhan hospital. The authors suggest these findings con rm human-to- human transmission. Together, these Articles provide an important initial picture of the clinical spectrum and transmission of this new disease.

In an accompanying Comment, Chen Wang, George Gao, and colleagues describe the early sharing of clinical data from the outbreak and emphasise the urgent need for more information about pathogenesis and viral transmission, as well as the pressing need to develop best supportive care and a vaccine. They also caution against overstating the mortality risk, as early reported case- fatality rates may be high due to bias towards detecting severe cases. As David Heymann reflects in another accompanying Comment, publication of these Articles provides peer-reviewed information urgently needed to refine the risk assessment and response, which are happening in real time.

China has quickly isolated and sequenced the virus and shared these data internationally. The lessons from the SARS epidemic—where China was insufficiently prepared to implement infection control practices—have been successfully learned. By most accounts, Chinese authorities are meeting international standards and isolating suspected cases and contacts, developing diagnostic and treatment procedures, and implementing public education campaigns. Dr Tedros has praised China for its transparency, data sharing, and quick response. Likewise, WHO has reacted fast and diligently. Despite massive attention and conjecture about the level of threat posed by 2019-nCoV, and whether WHO should declare a PHEIC, the agency’s emergency committee has not bowed to pressure to take such a decision until necessary. We commend WHO for its resilience.

There are still many gaps in our understanding. The early experiences of these patients and the response to their symptoms before cases were reported remain undocumented. The exposure and possible infection of health workers remain extremely worrying. We will not know for some time the consequences of the quarantine imposed in Wuhan on Jan 23, 2020. Chinese public health authorities are under enormous pressure to make difficult decisions with an incomplete, and rapidly changing, understanding of the epidemic. The shutdowns may seem a drastic step—whether they represent an effective control measure deserves careful investigation and much will likely depend on maintaining trust between authorities and the local population. News media that worsen fears by reporting a “killer virus“ only harm efforts to implement a successful and safe infection control strategy.

Openness and sharing of data are paramount. There are enormous demands for rapid access to information about this new virus, the patients and communities affected, and the response. But equally crucial is the need to ensure that those data are reliable, accurate, and independently scrutinised. As for all public health emergencies, we will be making all related Lancet content fully and freely available.

- The Lancet”

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30186-0.pdf
There are additional links at this link.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 27, 2020, 03:23:10 PM
The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

The labor force participation rate has been declining steadily in the U.S. since the recession in 2001 and this is not because people don't want to work. We are now at a participation rate we have not seen since the late 70's.

Meanwhile, the share of income for the bottom 4 quintiles in the U.S. has been steadily declining as well. The stats don't support your statement. Glad you have a good job though.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 27, 2020, 03:27:14 PM
Terry

Will China become a great big 21st century Eyam and be respected for its actions?

https://schoolhistory.co.uk/notes/eyam-and-the-great-plague/ (https://schoolhistory.co.uk/notes/eyam-and-the-great-plague/)
I strongly doubt that China, or her leaders, will receive any plaudits for their actions. I do believe that they're due, but not that they'll be offered.


Thanks for the link to Eyam's story! Were they viewed as heroes or fools by their peers?
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 27, 2020, 04:31:55 PM
The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

El Cid, are you only interested in some of the many economic markers?

For example, you cite unemployment rates. Are you aware that some people take 2 or more of those spots in these statistics?

What about those people who can't afford healthcare? Or those who can't manage any financial emergency? Are they on your mind when you say the economy is so great?

 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: nanning on January 27, 2020, 05:23:41 PM
To get into the mood:
An interesting and nice Film:
"Outbreak", a 1995 medical disaster film with starcast of Rene Russo, Morgan Freeman, Dustin Hofman, Cuba Gooding, Kevin Spacey, Donald Sutherland and Patrick Dempsey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outbreak_(film)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 27, 2020, 05:38:44 PM
nanning:
If you don't have time, these 2 min videos will get you in the mood:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quyXS4a0JGQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWB5npxJ1gY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aE0psDCIow
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on January 27, 2020, 06:06:14 PM
Terry

Thanks for the link to Eyam's story! Were they viewed as heroes or fools by their peers?
Terry

Definitely seen as heroes by their neighbours in Derbyshire and Sheffield and by subsequent generations. Their heroics are still celebrated today. I think it was a uniquely selfless act in the history of the plague in England.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 27, 2020, 07:20:26 PM
That's good to hear Silkman, It's a story I'd never been told.
................


The UK is now taking the 14 day incubation period seriously.

“From today, we are therefore asking anyone in the UK who has returned from Wuhan in the last 14 days to self-isolate. Stay indoors and avoid contact with other people - and to contact NHS 111."

Note that they aren't limiting the instructions to those experiencing symptoms.

I've read that a vaccine won't be available for at least a year - and that's if it doesn't mutate.

I once wandered about in Nevada & So. California for ~18 months with a chemically castrated immune system. Mine had become distracted and was eating the myelin sheath from my nerves and brain.
I avoided door knobs, push buttons and handrails, stopped shaking hands or hugging, avoided large crowds and left the premises when I heard the 1st cough or sniffle. My wife mirrored my actions. Probably good luck as much as anything, but we never had as much as a runny nose until well after my immune system had been replaced through IVIG treatments.

We're about to repeat those rather odd affectations in hopes that this thing passes us by, and we'll be donning masks in public now to be on the safe side.

I'd rather be seen as the strange bird that lives upstairs, than remembered as the friendly chap that died in the pandemic.

Masks are cheap here and altering your habits doesn't cost a nickel.
If you've a job that requires contract with lots of people, call in sick - or take a vacation.
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 27, 2020, 08:02:09 PM
What was the R0 with the SARS outbreak in 2002 ?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 27, 2020, 08:05:56 PM
If you've a job that requires contract with lots of people, call in sick - or take a vacation.

A bit over the top for the people that work in places with no or highly unlikely contact with infected people.

And just strategy wise...Lets say you can call in sick or take that vacation how much time do you have? You might be right back on the job in the worst time.   
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 27, 2020, 08:40:11 PM
What was the R0 with the SARS outbreak in 2002 ?

About 2.8 with a CFR of 10%
2019-nCoV appears to have an R0 between 2.6 and 5.7 and a CFR that may be the same or slightly higher than SARS.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 27, 2020, 08:50:01 PM

We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 27, 2020, 09:05:48 PM
It seems like this virus is spreading faster than SARS. They are talking about 800 infected people from mid november until mid February. That's like 3 months. Now the official number is almost 3000 in less than a month. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 27, 2020, 10:28:02 PM
It seems like this virus is spreading faster than SARS. They are talking about 800 infected people from mid november until mid February. That's like 3 months. Now the official number is almost 3000 in less than a month. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak

16 Nov 2002 is for first case. 31 Dec 2019 is, I think, when the virus was identified. This undoubtedly took time to realize there was an outbreak of something and prioritize identification. So with 3 months and less than a month, I don't think you are identifying the time periods correctly.

Quote
In late February 2003, Italian doctor Carlo Urbani was called into The French Hospital of Hanoi to look at Johnny Chen, an American businessman who had fallen ill with what doctors thought was a bad case of influenza. Urbani realized that Chen's ailment was probably a new and highly contagious disease. He immediately notified the WHO.

The CDC and Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory identified the SARS genome in April 2003.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 27, 2020, 10:35:28 PM
See Chart B toward the end of the report for a temporal display of the estimated R0.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 27, 2020, 10:51:22 PM
Not sure if this is more recent than other research linked in this thread

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn

Quote
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

Most of the cases that have been exported to other countries from China have been mild, he said. That could mean mild cases of disease spread more easily than severe, life-threatening cases, which sounds like good news. But on the other hand, it means it is possible there will be a reservoir of mild disease in the country that goes unnoticed and can spread until it affects somebody vulnerable because of underlying poor health, who becomes seriously ill.

“People looking for people with a travel history to China are not necessarily looking in their local population,” he said.

There is a lot still unknown, he explained. “We don’t have reports as yet as to the extent to which children are becoming infected, probably because of the bias towards severe cases.”

Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.

Ferguson said it was possible this is not quite as it appears. It may be that the authorities have not actually identified the index case – the person who infected a group of people – making it look as though they picked up the virus from someone who had no symptoms.

But although only people with symptoms of illness spread Sars, scientists point to other diseases, such as influenza and some colds, that can be passed on by those who appear well. These viruses “are carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person”, said Prof Wendy Barclay of the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London.

“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 27, 2020, 11:37:13 PM
Draconian quarantine efforts may bring the R0 to < 2; porous borders (Africa), limited medical intervention, large gatherings - hajj (Africa, India, Middle East) might point to R0 > 5

----------------------------

China Coronavirus: Patients are Infecting Two or Three Other People, Research Estimates
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047842/china-coronavirus-patients-are-infecting-two-or-three-other

Those infected with the Wuhan coronavirus are passing it on to two to three people on average, but that number could change quickly depending on factors including the success of China’s efforts to contain the outbreak through quarantines and increased public awareness.

Transmission rates are considered a moving target because of gaps in information, and the number can change quickly based on quarantines and public awareness

‘Whether transmission continues at the same rate critically depends on the effectiveness of the intense control effort now underway in Wuhan and across China’

... One study led by British infectious disease specialist Neil Ferguson put the basic reproduction number, known as the R0 (R naught), for the virus at 2.6.

A second British study, by researchers at Lancaster University, put the figure between 3.6 and 4.0.

Another analysis by researchers at Guangzhou Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention brought an estimate of 2.9.


In all three studies, the researchers acknowledged that their estimates came with significant uncertainties.

The R0 may differ from place to place depending on the control measures put in place by local authorities.

Calculations are also affected by a lack of data about people who contracted the virus from carriers who do not show symptoms.

The Guangzhou researchers said their initial findings suggested that the outbreak of the Wuhan virus – officially known as 2019-nCOV – could be much higher than the 2003 Sars epidemic.

“Our findings indicate that more rigorous control and prevention measures on early detection, diagnosis and treatment of cases infected with 2019-nCoV are needed to contain its further spread,” the Chinese researchers said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 12:16:37 AM
Two Nasty Traits of This Coronavirus, Typically Not Seen Together
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/two-nasty-traits-of-this-coronavirus-typically-not-seen-together-8vi04nAuREuoBMjVs5qJHA
Quote
Dr. Dena Grayson, who has years of training developing Ebola treatments, shares her concerns about this coronavirus.
I compiled what follows from a Series of Thirteen Tweets by physician (MD) and scientist (PhD) Dr. Dena Grayson. Emphasis is mine.

Is the Market Grossly Underestimating the Potential Impact of the Coronavirus Epidemic?
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/is-market-grossly-underestimating.html
Quote
Despite the current drop in stocks (less than 1.5% as this is written), there's a tremendous reservoir of complacency about the economic and financial impact of the coronavirus epidemic. The zeitgeist reflects an implicit confidence that the coronavirus will blow over like the SARS scare a few years ago and the impact on the global economy will be essentially zero.
Have all the risks already been fully discounted? Here are some of the reasons why the assumption that this will have little effect on the U.S. economy and stock market may be misguided
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 01:18:03 AM
US Upgrades Travel Advice to China
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has upgraded its warning warning for novel coronavirus to Level 3, which is to avoid all non-essential travel. It warns of person-to-person transmission and that “older adults and people with underlying health conditions may be at increased risk for severe disease”. The advice also notes that there is “limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas” in China.

Canada has also upgraded its travel advice for China, asking its citizens to avoid all travel to Hubei province, where the virus outbreak began. It says its citizens should “exercise a high degree of caution” in China due to “the risk of arbitrary enforcement of local laws”.

---------------------------------

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047836/china-coronavirus-us-health-officials-say-risk-public-remains

Officials from the top US public health agency said on Monday that 110 people around the country with a fever and respiratory illness have been placed under observation to determine if they have been infected with the China coronavirus.

Officials from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the “persons under investigation” (PUIs) came from 26 states and had all either travelled to the epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, or had come into contact with confirmed infected patients.

The number “will only increase”, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases, said in an agency briefing.

Centres for Disease Control and Prevention does not believe virus has mutated, and says the risk to the US public remains low

‘At this time in the US, this virus is not spreading in the community,’ an official says
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 28, 2020, 01:47:36 AM
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 28, 2020, 01:52:58 AM
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 02:05:46 AM
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.

The current best estimate is 85%. There is so far limited data to clarify that.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 02:08:38 AM
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?

If those numbers faithfully represent reality, then it suggests that China’s grand gamble with quarantine may be working.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 28, 2020, 02:15:46 AM
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.

May depend on amount of exposure? This seems more like anecdotal level of data but not sure we will get a better idea for a while.

Quote
From Jan 10, 2020, we enrolled a family of six patients who travelled to Wuhan from Shenzhen between Dec 29, 2019 and Jan 4, 2020. Of six family members who travelled to Wuhan, five were identified as infected with the novel coronavirus. Additionally, one family member, who did not travel to Wuhan, became infected with the virus after several days of contact with four of the family members. None of the family members had contacts with Wuhan markets or animals, although two had visited a Wuhan hospital.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 02:46:23 AM
Yesterday the toll was 82, so today’s figures of 106 is an increase of 23%. Infections are up from 2,887 to 4,193, an increase of 31%.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 28, 2020, 03:41:42 AM
Quarantine and shutting down business for a bit is almost guaranteed to work at lowering the rate of transmission. If the possible contacts are decreased the possible infections are decreased. Another thing they can try is requiring nose and mouth protection for anyone interacting with others.

Surgical masks would do nicely but any barrier placed over mouth and nose will significantly lower the chances of droplets leaving or getting into the mouth and nose. This guarantees another drop in the rate of infection.

If the suppression of infection rates is sustained for long enough the threat could go dormant for quite some time.

However, time and proper education of the populace is essential.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 03:48:19 AM
Yesterday the toll was 82, so today’s figures of 106 is an increase of 23%. Infections are up from 2,887 to 4,193, an increase of 31%.

So ... not reflective of reality then.  To be expected. Lunar new year holiday and weekend may be partly to blame. Reporting delays. The pademic continues.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 03:52:57 AM
China's Heath Commission Releases New Guidance on Virus

China’s National Health Commission issued guidance on treating the coronavirus last night (27 January).

It says “respiratory droplet transmission is the main route of transmission”, but it can also be transmitted through contact.

It says “based on current epidemiological investigations, the incubation period is generally 3-7 days, with the longest no more than 14 days”.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 28, 2020, 03:53:52 AM
Now .
4474 confirmed.
107  deaths.
15:30 Zulu.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 28, 2020, 03:57:04 AM
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 28, 2020, 04:15:01 AM
SARS had 8000 people infected in 2 years. No wonder the oil price is going down.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 05:24:31 AM
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.

I wish I knew Bruce. I have the same access to information all of you have.

One seemingly good reference from the first public modeling of the spread concluded that the confirmed disease numbers represent 5.1% of the total infected population. If that is right it suggests that there are now 90,000 infected.

This is plausible. Looking at the data over this past week, the totals of those confirmed infected and those who died suggested that the disease was spreading at a rate of 1.31 to 1.42 fold each day (my naive estimates). The report also suggested an average 6.4 day incubation period. That has not much changed. The range has expanded to 2-14 days. The same report suggested an R0 of about 4.

A day to day growth of 1.31 fold with a 6.4 day incubation period would result in an R0 estimate of about 5.6. That's not far off. A 1.31 fold daily increase in the total infected combined with a 5 day average incubation period would result in an R0 estimate of about 3.9. Etc...

What each of these suggest is that the uncounted infected pool is about 5 times the confirmed count, rather than the 19.6 fold that a 5.1% counting efficiency might suggest. But, if we count the suspect cases, we are only off by a factor of 2.

With exponential problems like this, combined with uncertain estimates of the real averages and distributions, and with unknown actual infection levels compared to confirmed counts, this is all about what we can expect.

One of the other confusion factors is the severity of infection and symptoms versus health, age, gender and other factors. This disease seems to (as expected) principally effect those over ~age 55 and male (70%). If young women in particular are less symptomatic, they may be dramatically under counted, and, they may also contribute to a greater degree to silent disease spread.

Then again, those seemingly important parameters may be to greater or lesser degrees be societal artifacts.

My wild ass guess is that the Chinese have done a great job in counting, that they are at or above maximum capacity in Wuhan, and that the societal and disease factors combined with the math problems of dealing with a rapidly and exponentially increasing disease spread put the real infected population at between 10 and 20 times the confirmed count but that is purely a wild ass guess. The professionals can do much better using modeling to try to estimate all of the various parameters involved. If they are above capacity in Wuhan as the center of the outbreak, then the counts may become much less representative of reality. On the other hand, the near cessation of movement in Wuhan should independently have greatly reduced the R0. But it doesn't appear to have done so.

I think the point I would emphasize is that whatever the reality is that these seemingly large ratios are inherent to the large replication factors and incubation period. We should expect them to be as they are. We should NOT take comfort in the seemingly small numbers of those confirmed infected or killed. And we should NOT compare these to seasonal flu or other diseases. Doing so will be misleading and get us in trouble.

I would also suggest that if there is (as there appears to be) a several day to week long period where people are infected and can transmit the disease, that controlling the outbreak will be extremely difficult. It will most likely cause reasonable professionals and politicians to consistently underestimate the spread of the disease and the severity of the outbreak. It is also likely to cause simple screening such as temperature monitoring at points of entry to be largely ineffective. And that may cause false confidence in the effectiveness of control efforts.

The hazard of that is the potential for the disease to spread globally and to result ultimately in over 100 million dead, and possibly over half a billion. Those are horrifying possibilities.

Combine too the difficulty and impacts on privacy, liberties, ... of taking actions that will stop such a rapidly expanding plague. Then compound that with the huge array of financial and market impacts on our now hugely interconnected world.

Conversely, consider the global tragedy and impacts of sickening most of the people on Earth and killing several hundred million if we act too slowly and wrongly.

Either way the consequences look to be enormous both for those alive today, and for everyone everywhere as we move into a radically different future. If these disease is one of the period global pandemics that wipe out up to 10% or more of the population in a matter of a few months, it is inevitable that that will create truly enormous societal impacts. And these are unlikely to be transient impacts. If control fails, this will be a turning point, just as the Black Death and other plagues were. And we need only look to them to get some idea of the scope, scale and severity of the societal impacts to come.

Also, if this plague progresses globally and unchecked, with the current R0 and incubation periods, it will likely all play out by about May. That is a nearly unimaginable scale of impact over an incredibly short period.

Most of the decision makers experience is based on completely different conditions. This is likely to lead them to fail to act either quickly or decisively enough. China has already done far more far faster than could ever have been expected. And it does not appear to have  been nearly enough. In western societies, the structure of the societies will not allow anything close to their response. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is for individual action and response to make the difference. History of human behavior does not make that a promising route.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 28, 2020, 05:47:26 AM
the most worrying number I heard was on bbc news .. 400 critically ill .. a sizeable proportion of those infected before yesterday . b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 06:19:12 AM
The National Health Commission had issued new figures for deaths and infections, including 4,515 confirmed cases of the virus. State media is reporting that 976 - or just over 20% of cases – are patients in a critical condition. It also says there are 6,973 suspected cases in China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 06:30:35 AM
Something to consider.

If the daily increase in cases remains a factor of 1.3 and the incubation period is a week, then as a very crude estimate, the number of critical cases requiring treatment will increase by a factor of 6.27 each week.

If Wuhan is already at capacity, even adding 1,000 beds, they will be far over capacity to deal with the patients. A week later they will be able to deal with only a small fraction of the need. Not good. It is hard to imagine the systems not failing at that point.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 28, 2020, 08:15:17 AM
I talked to virologists off the record. They seem totally complacent: "The Chinese got this under control...you are more likely to die in the common flu...80 dead is nothing out of 1,5 billion, etc".
They truly seem unworried, yet when I look at the numbers I can not understand how that is possibble. I don't see this being contained anyway, not with  one week incubation period. The epidemic is likely already spreading in the US and Europe if you consider that. Where am I wrong? Can they be right?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 08:41:21 AM
El Cid,

In my opinion, you are not wrong. They are. Their complacency is born of dealing with less virulent, less fatal organisms, and a long chain of luck.

They seem incapable of understanding how an exponential problem can get away from them.  On the other hand, last years simulation with Bill Gates of a Corona virus pandemic that resulted in 100 million deaths foreshadows this real world event. The simulation caused so many deaths precisely because of human failures exactly like this.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 28, 2020, 09:06:37 AM
From a personal vantagepoint.


The 1st Canadian patient, now in isolation in Toronto, apparently spent 9 hours at the ER of St. Joseph's Hospital in Hamilton Ont. (per Reddit)


St. Joseph's is ~40 KM from my building and is the hospital where my cancer problems are treated. The hospital is ~15 blocks from the home where I'd have had dinner last Saturday, if not for my paranoia.


No spread of infection in evidence from that patient, (other than his wife who is Canada's 2nd confirmed case), but I somehow feel vindicated for opting out of the dinner party.


Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 28, 2020, 09:15:15 AM
Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem.

OK, i officially distance myself from my statement there.

Quote
I hope i'm right on that...

I wasn't.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 28, 2020, 09:20:53 AM

A snapshot comparing SARS & Coronavirus


(https://i.imgur.com/ggVLpmQ.png)


Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 28, 2020, 09:34:06 AM
... and SARS was without the extreme measures to contain the virus we see now.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wdmn on January 28, 2020, 09:36:53 AM
Another visualization. This one courtesy of Robert Rohde:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1222073283002208257
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 10:03:23 AM
The Coronavirus Is Now An Actual Pandemic
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-conoravirus-is-now-an-actual-pandemic/
Quote
While you wouldn’t know it by listening to the major media outlets, the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to get worse. As does our understanding of its potential threat to the public health.

At this point, we have to be honest with ourselves: We are dealing with a true pandemic at this point



Chris’ message is direct: we’re passed the point when this could have been contained and ‘blown over’ in a short period of time.

This is going to get worse. Quite possibly a *lot* worse.

It’s time to prepare folks.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on January 28, 2020, 10:06:14 AM
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Looking at the analysis of the family that visited Wuhan, it appears that (at least in their case) onset of symptoms was after about 3 days from exposure to infected people. So perhaps the week-long incubation period is not the typical case. (Hopefully).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 10:47:45 AM
Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/hundreds-of-virus-carrying-planes-headed-for-us-london-paris-vancouver-EjNxIUbMhk-CUN3PWJcLNA
Quote
How easy is it to escape Wuhan?

You can still catch a flight from Wuhan to Anchorage, Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Singapore, Taipei and countless cities in China including Beijing and Shanghai.

There are 8 pages of flights out of Wuhan today. That's about 200 flights. Most of the flights are within China, but that hardly stops containment.
In the 00:00-06:00 slot one flight left for Anchorage. Another left for Bangkok, Thailand and another went to Tokyo.
In the 06:00-12:00 slot, two planes left for Tokyo and three to Hong Kong.
In the 12:00-18:00 slot, three planes left for Seoul, South Korea and two went to Taipei, Taiwan.
In the 18:00-00:00 slot, one plane went to Bangkok , three went to Taipei, three went to Hong Kong,
Wuhan Departures Tomorrow

Tomorrow, there are four flights from Wuhan to Singapore, three to Taipei, two to Bangkok, three to Tokyo, three to Paris, and six to Hong Kong, three to San Francisco,

The rest headed for other parts of China including Beijing. Then where?​ Here are international possibilities from Beijing.

This article was posted 14 hours ago as of now, so it is fairly current.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on January 28, 2020, 10:49:25 AM
Nature is running an open source, regularly updated summary of the story that's covering the science in a way that is readily understandable to non-scientists. Helpful.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=1348bf2cbd-briefing-dy-20200127&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-1348bf2cbd-44120569
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 28, 2020, 11:47:28 AM
I wonder how long the number of posts on this thread can keep ahead of the numbers of dead ?

At this stage in the SARS outbreak I was telling everyone not to worry and that it would never get to N.I.
I am giving very different advice this time . I find myself glad to be living alone in the sticks on an island off an island . ( although that didn't help me in 665AD ! ) . b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 11:48:13 AM
Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 106 in China as CDC Confirms 5 Cases in U.S.
https://time.com/5772481/china-coronavirus-latest/
BY SANYA MANSOOR UPDATED: JANUARY 28, 2020 4:59 AM ET | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JANUARY 27, 2020
Quote
But experts are skeptical that official numbers capture the full extent of the outbreak. Researchers in Hong Kong have warned that the actual number of people infected in Wuhan could already be more than 30 times higher than the official tally.

BTW, I read somewhere (should have posted it here) that a lot of rural migrant workers in Wuhan are commuting in and out of the city on foot, spreading the virus to outside regions that don't have medical infrastructure of the cities. Is that true?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on January 28, 2020, 11:54:18 AM
^^ it scarcely matters .. nowhere has the intensive care facilities to maintain the levels of care needed beyond the initial few days of infection .
the UK starts this year without any spare capacity ..even  bussing children all over the country trying to find a single bed available . b.c.
 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 28, 2020, 12:13:05 PM
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?

Sorry, I believed the numbers had been updated by the time I posted that.

Last 4 days mainland China now showing 916 1979 2737 4409 so increases of 1063 758 1672
Elsewhere 25 40 57 65 so increases of 15 17 and 8
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on January 28, 2020, 12:50:55 PM
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Looking at the analysis of the family that visited Wuhan, it appears that (at least in their case) onset of symptoms was after about 3 days from exposure to infected people. So perhaps the week-long incubation period is not the typical case. (Hopefully).
Re-looking at it, I realized P6 (a child) did not show any symptoms at all until diagnosed in the hospital. This is the scary one.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 12:55:52 PM
^^ it scarcely matters .. nowhere has the intensive care facilities to maintain the levels of care needed beyond the initial few days of infection .
the UK starts this year without any spare capacity ..even  bussing children all over the country trying to find a single bed available . b.c.
 
Also, people sick and dying in the boondocks are not going to get the procedure to be “officially” counted in the statistics.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 01:10:12 PM
Coronavirus: first European human-to-human transmission confirmed in Germany
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/health/92182/coronavirus-first-european-human-to-human-contamination-reported-in-germany-bavaria-china-january/
Quote
For the time being no further cases have been reported, but authorities are checking on a total of 40 people who have been in contact with the two infected company employees, either within the company or within the family of the German patient.

Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-warn-of-possible-sustained-global-spread-of-new-coronavirus/
Quote
If the virus cannot be contained, it could start regularly circulating in the population like other common respiratory viruses
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 01:25:20 PM
Just some numbers ...

The US has about 924,000 hospital beds total (counting metal health and rehab). Of these, acute care hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds)  Current occupancy 70-90%
https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Europe has about the same.

The UK has 127,000 total including mental health and rehab.

The number of beds in general and acute hospitals in the UK has fallen from 110,568 in April-June 2010 to 100,406 in the same period this year (2019). Current occupancy is already 85-95% - without a pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

----------------

What this means is that there is very little surge capacity. Even if you have a vacant bed, there are a limited number of ventilators for critical patients. And there is a limited number of trained staff.

There will still be patients with strokes and heart attacks.

----------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 01:33:18 PM
According to Google News, the New York Times has a number of articles on the epidemic today with scary headlines.
Can someone with a subscription (I can't afford it) check them out and give a pertinent quote?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: dnem on January 28, 2020, 01:38:22 PM
Jan. 28, 2020, 7:31 a.m. ET6 minutes ago
6 minutes ago
Coronavirus Live Updates: Hong Kong Restricts Travel From Mainland China as Infections Exceed 4,500   
The number of known cases of the new virus increased by nearly 60 percent overnight. A shortage of test kits has led experts to warn that the real number may be higher.

By The New York Times
RIGHT NOWHong Kong will severely limit travel from mainland China, suspending high-speed rail service and cutting flights by half. 

Death toll exceeds 100 as number of infections skyrockets.

The outbreak of a mysterious new virus is rapidly spreading, the Chinese authorities said on Tuesday, as the official account of known cases jumped nearly 60 percent overnight and the death toll exceeded 100 for the first time.

◆ China said on Tuesday that 106 people had died from the coronavirus that is believed to have originated in the central city of Wuhan and is spreading across the country. The previous death toll, on Monday, was 81.

◆ The number of confirmed cases increased from 2,835 on Monday to 4,515 on Tuesday, according to the National Health Commission. The youngest confirmed case is a 9-month-old girl in Beijing.

◆ Most of the cases have been confirmed in the central Chinese province of Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, where several cities, including Wuhan, have been placed under what amounts to a lockdown. Of the total cases, 2,714 are in Hubei.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 01:46:50 PM
Hong Kong medical workers draw fortune sticks to decide who works in coronavirus quarantine wards
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

Doctor says he and his colleagues have been put under intense pressure with the emergence of the new virus

The Hospital Authority has stressed the situation is under control but frontline medical workers paint a different picture

... The supply of protective gear and masks was a concern.

A nurse in a Kowloon hospital said she saw a colleague being told off for wearing an N95 mask, which offers more protection than a normal version.

“[She was told] if you wear them now, it will stoke fear among people who come to visit their relatives,” the nurse said.

The masks had also been locked up, she claimed, adding that a clerical worker said they had been rationed. “Why are they rationed, and not used when necessary?” she said.

The authority has said there are enough stocks of masks in public hospitals for at least three months. (... This is a lie)

------------------

Japan health minister Katsunobu Kato said a tour bus driver in Japan who drove tourists from Wuhan twice a month and who had not visited Wuhan has contracted the new coronavirus.

If confirmed, it is the first case of human to human transmission of the new coronavirus to happen in Japan.

---------------------

The Global Times is reporting that the Chinese city of Tianjin, in northern China, is to launch a “wartime mechanism”, putting one of its general hospitals and 500 medical teams in the city under military management.] It’s the first Chinese city to take the step, according to the Global Times.

Tianjin is about 120km south-east of Beijing. Its population is around 15 million people.
https://t.co/uPGXfDpjmb

---------------------------

China's National Health Commission says 6,000 medical staff sent to Hubei epicentre from around the country but shortage of supplies slowing their deployment.

--------------------------

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has announced that screening for the virus will be expanded to 20 U.S. airports, up from five airports that were doing testing earlier. The 20 U.S. airports now doing thermal screening receive roughly 90 percent of all inbound flights from China, according to CNN.

-----------------

Tip for the Day: There is only one way to wear a surgical mask correctly, and that is with the coloured side facing outside.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 01:53:40 PM
I believe that a member of my Toastmasters Club came from Wuhan, and still has family living there.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 28, 2020, 03:11:29 PM
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.

Here is something quoted from a couple of days ago:
Quote
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

so large range of uncertainty.

> If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

I would suggest instead that:

If you are sick enough to go to hospital, with suitable symptoms to be tested, and you are tested, and the result has come back positive then you will be one of the confirmed cases.

If you are sick enough to go to hospital, with suitable symptoms to be tested, and you are tested but not yet had result then you will probably be one of the suspected cases. Recent suspected cases figure around 7000 per https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-deaths-climb-over-100-hong-kong-limits-travel-everything-we-know/#newcorona

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 03:42:59 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

... The coronavirus outbreak could last several months and its course is unpredictable, with many thousands more people likely to have been affected than official figures suggest, according to Dr Jennifer Rohn, a specialist in cell biology at University College London.

She said it was difficult to know how long the outbreak would last, adding: “It is hard to predict but, certainly, the cat is out of the bag.

“We don’t know the full picture – they are running very short on diagnostic kits in China – and the truth is we don’t know where all the people are who are infected.”

It was likely far more thousands of people are infected than the cases confirmed in China
, she said.

Also, note the glacial pace of testing in the UK and US ... 10-20 test results a day.

--------------------------

The academic pubilsher Wiley has compiled 54 research articles relating to the coronavirus, listed them on a single page, and has made them free to read for the next few months, as the world battles to contain the outbreak.

https://secure.wiley.com/Coronavirus2020

... These important pieces of literature will remain free until April 2020, with the window of time extended as needed. Newly published articles related to coronavirus will immediately be free to access during this time period, and will be posted to the coronavirus research page.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 28, 2020, 04:34:49 PM
Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-warn-of-possible-sustained-global-spread-of-new-coronavirus/
Quote
If the virus cannot be contained, it could start regularly circulating in the population like other common respiratory viruses

Do not know anything about how viruses spread but, if true, this could be a problem.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 28, 2020, 04:53:53 PM
Scenario planning,
What if you stayed in a hotel by Disneyland, frequented with Chinese tourists . Four days later
Returned home, got dry cough, mild temperature, then 102
OK it’s time to call a doctor but you should tell the whole story first I would think, before you go.
 Haven’t conditions changed even in countries with very few cases?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 05:01:43 PM
Confusion and Lost Time: How Testing Woes Slowed China's Coronavirus Response
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-testing-insight/confusion-and-lost-time-how-testing-woes-slowed-chinas-coronavirus-response-idUSKBN1ZQ21K

Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.

... Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.

---------------------

... Testing kits for the disease were not distributed to some of Wuhan’s hospitals until about Jan. 20, an official at the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC) told Reuters. Before then, samples had to be sent to a laboratory in Beijing for testing, a process that took three to five days to get results, according to Wuhan health authorities.

During that gap, hospitals in the city reduced the number of people under medical observation from 739 to just 82, according to data compiled by Reuters from Wuhan health authorities, and no new cases were reported inside China.

Despite the lack of reliable data and testing capacity in Wuhan, Chinese authorities assured citizens in the days after the virus had been identified that it was not widely transmissible. In previous weeks, it had censored negative online commentary about the situation, and arrested eight people it accused of being “rumor spreaders.”

... The week in which no new virus cases were reported in Hubei coincided with preparations for the Lunar New Year and sessions of the province’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

(https://www.todayonline.com/sites/default/files/styles/new_app_article_detail/public/20896886.JPG?itok=I60nVqh9)

... Once a virus has been identified, “You need to make sure you have all the reagent (a substance used in chemical analysis) samples and you’ve got it all pushed out to where you want to do testing,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who focuses on emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness.

Although information from the region is scarce, Adalja suggested China has had problems with this stage of tackling the outbreak. “We’re already hearing that there are shortages of medical professionals there, that there are shortages of test kits and medicines,” he said.


Seven of the largest hospitals in Wuhan are now equipped with testing kits for the virus, which in theory deliver results within a day, the Hubei CDC official said.

But four people told Reuters they were refused tests because the process involved a complex reporting system including hospital, district and city health authorities and disease control officials.

To qualify for the test, patients need to meet certain criteria, such as having symptoms of fever and pneumonia, and a surge in patients means it is “impossible to conduct the test right away,” an official at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Reuters.

Quote
... Making matters worse, three Chinese medical companies have said that they do not have the capacity to make enough test kits for the new coronavirus, according to local news media reports.

... Wuhan health authorities have a limit on tests, chiefly because of the shortage of testing kits, and are screening lists of patients before deciding who gets a test, which takes several hours, one hospital worker told Reuters.

“Some severely ill patients were left out from the final list for testing because they know they wouldn’t be able to be treated,” the worker told Reuters. “The actual deaths were higher.”


Three hospital and local government workers, who have been briefed on how doctors are handling tests and confirming cases, told Reuters that official numbers of infections and deaths do not reflect the actual toll.

-----------------------

Sales of Face Masks on the Rise in Ottawa Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/news/sales-of-face-masks-on-the-rise-in-ottawa-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-1.4784181

... CTV News went to a Home Depot in Gloucestor and found it was sold out of face masks.

Managers tell CTV that customers were buying them in bulk to send to family in China, where there have been reported shortages.


Over at Preston Hardware, owner Johnny Giannetti says as soon as news broke of the virus reaching North America, they saw a surge in mask sales.

Giannetti says even his suppliers are sending out memos urging their clients to order quickly, and notifying them of possible delays in shipment.

“A couple e-mails were sent to me that if you’re running low, jump in now and order,” said Giannetti.

“The last time we saw this was the SARS incidents, that was hard to get product and an increase in demand for sure.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 05:12:26 PM
‘What if We All Get Sick?’: Coronavirus Strains China’s Health System
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/world/asia/27china-coronavirus-health.html

... China does not have a functioning primary care system, so most people flock to hospitals. On an ordinary day, doctors are frustrated and exhausted as they see as many as 200 patients.

Those weaknesses are most pronounced in the poorer areas of China — like Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus. Panicked residents of the city are heading to the hospitals if they have any sign of a cold or cough. Videos circulating on Chinese social media show doctors straining to handle the enormous workload and hospital corridors loaded with patients, some of whom appear to be dead.

To fight the expanding outbreak, the country is relying on a medical system that is overburdened even in normal times.

Chinese hospitals in smaller cities are not fully prepared to deal with a major outbreak like the current virus. Wuhan hospitals have posted messages online urgently appealing for medical equipment. The situation is even more desperate in poorer, rural areas nearby.

Last week, eight hospitals in Hubei Province — where Wuhan is situated and where most of the cases have appeared — put out a call for N95 masks, goggles, surgical masks and surgical gowns. In the absence of proper equipment, some medical workers have resorted to cutting plastic folders to jury-rig goggles.

Quote
... Making matters worse, three Chinese medical companies have said that they do not have the capacity to make enough test kits for the new coronavirus, according to local news media reports.

...With no proven drugs to treat the new virus, the health authorities have told doctors to prescribe a combination of treatments — anti-viral H.I.V. drugs as well as traditional Chinese medicine — to patients. Some of the medicines being prescribed are a mixture of ingredients like buffalo horn, jasmine and honeysuckle as well as anti-viral H.I.V. drugs like Lopinavir and Ritonavir.

... “There has never been a good antiviral agent, so that means that people would try things that have some effect,” said Dominic Dwyer, a medical virologist at the University of Sydney. “But there’s no evidence of significant benefits with any antiviral drugs or traditional Chinese medicine.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 05:31:27 PM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPP5xEkXUAUmn4Y?format=jpg&name=large)

https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1221594560851251201

We've updated our transmissibility assessment for #nCoV2019! R_0 estimates (based off of publicly reported confirmed cases through 1/26/20 & subject to change) remain ~stable, now ranging from 2.0 to 3.1.

Pre-print will be updated soon: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3524675

See thread below.

https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1221594560851251201

https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220501403057229824

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO_6IZAXkAA_36Y?format=png&name=small)

https://www.vox.com/2020/1/28/21079946/coronavirus-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 06:11:02 PM
You know, I can't see how China will be able to confine the virus to the lockdowned cities, in view of the migrant workers I mentioned above. They will just go on foot over or around the roadblocks. Maybe the provinces can be quarantined?

And as for news:
Coronavirus live updates: U.S. seeks to send expert team to China to combat coronavirus outbreak; Xi defends response
By
Gerry Shih,
Simon Denyer and
Siobhán O'Grady
Jan. 28, 2020 at 11:57 a.m. EST
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/28/da7664f2-414d-11ea-b503-2b077c436617_story.html
Quote
● Several countries, including France, South Korea, Canada, Britain and the United States are putting together plans to evacuate their citizens from the outbreak epicenter in Wuhan.

● Germany has reported its first case, while Thailand has confirmed six more cases, bringing its total to 14 amid calls by many Asian populations to close the borders to Chinese visitors. Infections have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Canada and Sri Lanka. We’re mapping the spread here.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 28, 2020, 07:58:27 PM
Scenario planning,
What if you stayed in a hotel by Disneyland, frequented with Chinese tourists . Four days later
Returned home, got dry cough, mild temperature, then 102
OK it’s time to call a doctor but you should tell the whole story first I would think, before you go.
 Haven’t conditions changed even in countries with very few cases?

That's what is happening now. In Japan a busdriver is infected after he transported a group of chinese tourists. And probably there will be more infected people on that bus. So that group of infected chinese tourists is crossing Japan for a couple days. That means hotels, restaurants, tourist hotspots, airports....All places where you have plenty tourists, in Japan.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on January 28, 2020, 08:21:10 PM
Will coronavirus affect the primary season in the US of A?
Rally's might be avoided and voters may huddle at home rather than waiting in lines.


In Canada we do a presumptive blood test, then send samples to Winnipeg and wait 3-4 days for results.


The maid's here today, no sniffles - but not a great line of work in these times.


nanning's afternoons alone in the woods might be a practice worth emulating!
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 09:14:37 PM
Germany, Japan, and Taiwan Report First Coronavirus Cases in People Who Haven't Visited China [Updated]
https://gizmodo.com/germany-and-japan-report-first-coronavirus-cases-in-peo-1841298312
Quote
Germany, Japan, and Taiwan have all reported the first cases of a new SARS-like virus in people who haven’t recently visited China. The announcements, made on Tuesday, come as the number of confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV worldwide reached 4,587 and the death toll hit 106.

So now it's spreading in four countries at least.
How many does the WHO need to declare a pandemic?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 28, 2020, 09:31:03 PM
Up date 1800 Zulu.
4690 cases.
106 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 10:29:58 PM
A blast from the past which might become prescient if worst comes to worse:

Ebola and the Five Stages of Collapse
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2014/10/ebola-and-five-stages-of-collapse.html
Quote
And so, for the benefit of those who are not particularly panic-prone, I am going to trot out my old technique of examining collapse as consisting of five distinct stages: financial, commercial, political, social and cultural, and briefly discuss the various ramifications of a swift 50% global population collapse when viewed through that prism. If you want to know all about the five stages, my book is widely available.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on January 28, 2020, 10:36:42 PM
The WHO situation reports are here:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)

A bit slower than the news outlets but hopefully higher quality. One fact from the latest report is interesting/worrying:

"Patients with 2019-nCoV infection, are presenting with a wide range of symptoms. Most seem to have mild disease, and about 20% appear to progress to severe disease, including pneumonia, respiratory failure and in some cases death."

The news and local government here (Sweden) are comparing the coronavirus with the seasonal flu. However, 20% of the flu cases are not "severe" and the flu isn't anywhere near the death rate of the coronavirus.

I guess I'm misreading something, but what?

If 20% of the cases progress to a severe condition, no country will have nearly enough intensive care capacity to treat all patients if an outbreak occurs. For example, Sweden as a country can treat about 500 intensive care patients. In the latest situation report 926 cases are severe with just 4537 confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 28, 2020, 11:16:34 PM
One interesting fact about for-profit hospitals. Low occupancy is bad for business. The closer to 100% occupancy the better for their bottom line.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 28, 2020, 11:27:23 PM
The WHO situation reports are here:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports (https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports)

A bit slower than the news outlets but hopefully higher quality. One fact from the latest report is interesting/worrying:

"Patients with 2019-nCoV infection, are presenting with a wide range of symptoms. Most seem to have mild disease, and about 20% appear to progress to severe disease, including pneumonia, respiratory failure and in some cases death."

The news and local government here (Sweden) are comparing the coronavirus with the seasonal flu. However, 20% of the flu cases are not "severe" and the flu isn't anywhere near the death rate of the coronavirus.

I guess I'm misreading something, but what?

If 20% of the cases progress to a severe condition, no country will have nearly enough intensive care capacity to treat all patients if an outbreak occurs. For example, Sweden as a country can treat about 500 intensive care patients. In the latest situation report 926 cases are severe with just 4537 confirmed cases.

And then there is the follow-on impact. Elective procedures and needs can be postponed. However, urgent care remains. And all urgent care will both have to compete with the need for care for the nCoV patients, and be at risk for infection in tight quarters.

As a direct consequence, people will go untreated or be inadequately treated. The resulting deaths though not directly caused by the virus are also attributable to its impacts.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 12:22:07 AM
China Coronavirus: Death Toll Reaches 131 as Number of Cases Surpasses that of Sars
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047979/china-coronavirus-death-toll-reaches-131-number-cases-surpasses

The number of confirmed cases of the rapidly spreading coronavirus infection in mainland China has reached 5,496, health authorities said on Wednesday, a total that surpasses that of Sars, the epidemic in 2003 that killed more than 600 people worldwide.

The death toll has climbed to 131, they announced, with 840 newly confirmed cases in Hubei province.

The total death counts with the new coronavirus infection are all reported in mainland China, with 125 in Hubei province, where the outbreak began, and six in other provinces. About 3,300 people are hospitalised in Hubei province, with more than 20,000 being observed for infection.

Zhong Nanshan, one of China’s top respiratory diseases experts, said on Tuesday that the outbreak has yet to reach its peak and that he expected to come within a week to 10 days, adding that there should be “no massive increase afterwards”.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 29, 2020, 12:35:53 AM
Another factor is if, say this takes one quarter of the population out of circulation because of illness, and another quarter out of circulation caring for the first quarter. With half the population unavailable for maybe several weeks or more, especially if it happens at the peak of the Spring Planting Season, what will that do to the economy, food supply, etc.?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2020, 12:54:20 AM
Wonder how the #coronavirus stricken city of Wuhan looks on lockdown? Here is the aerial view.
Credit: 联盟营地
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1222198309256716288
Drone video at the link.  No pedestrians, and almost no traffic on city streets, or highways.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 12:56:00 AM
Up date 2300 Zulu
World wide .
Confirmed Cases 5578.
Deaths 131.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Reach a peak in seven to ten days.
How many tens of thousands will that be?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 01:10:01 AM
Four infected within Germany.
https://www.stmgp.bayern.de/presse/drei-weitere-coronavirus-faelle-in-bayern-zusammenhang-mit-dem-ersten-fall-bayerns/
Translation.
Quote
The Bavarian Ministry of Health was informed on Tuesday evening that three other people in Bavaria had been infected with the novel corona virus. These patients are also employees of the company from the district of Starnberg, where the first person affected is already employed. This man had apparently contracted a Chinese colleague during a training session on January 21. This colleague flew back to China on January 23. On January 27, the company informed the health department of the Chinese woman's illness.

It was decided that the three new patients should also be admitted to the Munich Clinic Schwabing, where they would be medically monitored and isolated. A few other contact persons are currently testing whether they are infected with the corona virus. The Bavarian Ministry of Health and the State Office for Health and Food Safety (LGL) will report on details in a press release on Wednesday.
Reports are the original vector had no symptoms at the time of transmission .
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2020, 02:47:03 AM
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 1/28/20, 10:08 AM
#Coronavirus outbreak in China is affecting public transportation. Since people are urged to stay home, this driver has no passengers to pick up after having driven 1 1/2 hours and passed 60 stops. He has been a bus driver for 10 years and feels very lonely today.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1222174556493733890
Video clip inside empty bus.

—-
Second drone vid:
Quote
Ray4️⃣Tesla (@ray4tesla) 1/28/20, 1:06 PM
I’ve been to #Wuhan before. The most famous shopping street-Jianghanlu, used to be where the hustle-and-bustle is. Plagued by #coronavirus scare, the street looks empty. Locals are urged to stay home. Here is another drone footage from 联盟营地. My best wish for Wuhan.
https://twitter.com/ray4tesla/status/1222219524868427777
Drone footage over Wuhan at the link.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 03:35:12 AM
The official death toll in China has risen to 132, with 5,974 cases confirmed
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Lewis on January 29, 2020, 06:03:34 AM
Australian scientists have managed to replicate the coronavirus in laboratory conditions in a medical breakthrough that could help speed up the development of a vaccine to combat the deadly virus.

Now the replicated virus can be used to create a vaccine.

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australian-scientists-create-lab-grown-version-of-deadly-coronavirus-paving-way-for-vaccine
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 06:33:35 AM
Up date 0400 Zulu.
6057 confirmed cases.
132 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 29, 2020, 09:37:55 AM
With the extensive quarantine having begun 6 days ago, hopefully we will begin to see the impacts of that action with a dramatic decline in the R0.

All sorts of parameter combinations can approximate the spread so far.

One such is an average R0 of 3.6, a mean generation time of 3 days, 2 days infective without systems, then a mean appearance of symptoms at day 5, hospitalization then and formal confirmation on day 7 and death 6 days later on average for 10% of those infected. If as has been suggested, 15% of people are essentially insusceptible to it, then the CFR needs to be increased to 12%.

This is not in any way a formal analysis. This is an overly simplistic model. And it is just one set of parameters that approximately fits the data. It should not be extrapolated more than a few days. This set of parameters results in a daily rate of confirmed cases at a factor of 1.52. Some suggested fits have daily rates as low as 1.32 or as high as 1.61. One analysis I’ve seen suggests an increasing rate through that range from 1.3 to 1.6.

At 6 days since people quit moving in Wuhan and restricted themselves, the spread should have dramatically slowed. However that takes significant time to show up in the data. We should only begin to see the impact of that in 2 to 5 days from now. Death rate counts will take another week to begin to slow down.

Many of the data fits have similar parameters. Generally they suggest generation times between 3 and 4.5 days.  And what those suggest is that we should hopefully see a strong decline in the increase (a slowing in the rate of increase) in confirmed case numbers in just a few days.

If we don’t see a decline in the rate within a week it suggests that the quarantine is less effective than we all may hope and wish.

Sam.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on January 29, 2020, 09:38:43 AM
Pretty draconian but probably too little, too late actions being taken in Singapore:

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/additional-precautionary-measures-to-minimise-risk-of-community-spread-in-singapore

One of their seven confirmed cases was staying at the Marina Bay Sands hotel, the most iconic building in the City state.

I have family there. It's all too close for comfort.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 29, 2020, 09:52:41 AM
The Economics Of Pandemics And Quarantines
https://www.aier.org/article/the-economics-of-pandemics-and-quarantines/
Quote
The story is unfolding in a manner very similar to the Ebola outbreak a few years back. Authorities react with strong measures such as quarantines and travel bans to restrict contagion. On its face, such measures appear – purely from the vantage point of public health issues – reasonable. However, economic theory suggests the possibility that extreme measures such as sealing off a city, a travel ban or quarantines may actually make things worse.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 29, 2020, 10:52:07 AM
I think Ebola and this coronavirus are two different beasts that must be approached in a different manner. If my understanding is correct, while Ebola is much more deadly, this coronavirus (needs nickname) spreads like the common cold. We still haven't figured out how to stop the common cold other than by yearly vaccinations.

Since there are isn't a vaccine for this(even if there was, it can't be deployed in time), then the spread must be stopped through physical means. That is done by decreasing the rate of interaction of the population and increasing hygiene ( handwashing, face masks).

That's the biology side of it. On the sociology side of it, China has a large central control and resources. The African countries affected by Ebola don't.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 29, 2020, 10:59:35 AM
This is one of those very rare occasions, that I completely agree with Archimid
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Rodius on January 29, 2020, 11:04:26 AM
This is one of those very rare occasions, that I completely agree with Archimid

Do you have a fever?  :o
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 11:25:18 AM
Umm I disagree with both of you .
No effective vaccination for the common cold has ever been developed.
What is called a common  cold can be any  of about 200 different virus which mutate quickly..
We have vaccination for the flue virus but it is highly dependent on the strains in circulation .

What concerns  about this new virus is that it quickly proceeds to pneumonia for a large percentage of victims. If it does become  prevalent health resources will be strained beyond ability to cope . That means some will inevitably die due to substandard health care  in the west.



Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 29, 2020, 11:34:38 AM
I agree with your disagreement KiwiGriff. Your specificity is welcomed.

Ironically, by agreeing with your disagreement I'm in a state of disagreement with El Cid.

El Cid, can we make it two in a row?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 11:46:23 AM
 ;D
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 29, 2020, 12:13:44 PM
I think Ebola and this coronavirus are two different beasts that must be approached in a different manner. If my understanding is correct, while Ebola is much more deadly, this coronavirus (needs nickname) spreads like the common cold. We still haven't figured out how to stop the common cold other than by yearly vaccinations.

Since there are isn't a vaccine for this(even if there was, it can't be deployed in time), then the spread must be stopped through physical means. That is done by decreasing the rate of interaction of the population and increasing hygiene ( handwashing, face masks).

That's the biology side of it. On the sociology side of it, China has a large central control and resources. The African countries affected by Ebola don't.

But does that work for influenzas? We still get flu pandemics, don’ We?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 29, 2020, 12:14:49 PM
If the link works this seems to be the JHU spreadsheet, which I don't think has been mentioned previously?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yZv9w9zRKwrGTaR-YzmAqMefw4wMlaXocejdxZaTs6w/htmlview
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 29, 2020, 12:15:39 PM
Quote
This post will surprise you. You’ll think I am nuts, it took me some time to decide to write all of this down. Please read til the end, there’s links all along so you can fact check everything. Please share it, so truth is spread. It's about coronavirus. Enter thread:

Link >> https://twitter.com/daninovaramaen/status/1221835088842973185?s=21
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 29, 2020, 12:26:41 PM
Forgot this link and some comments on it:

Inside Wuhan: Daily life in China's coronavirus quarantine zone

https://youtu.be/luztqxUBvZo

@ 0:16
 Facemasks are certainly effective. Any barrier reduces the probability of fluids to get in or out of the mouth and nose. Some masks are better than others, but any mask is better than no mask.

Disposable or sterilizable masks are a must. If the mask worked, it probably carries a few copies of the virus with it. Water, soap or laundry detergent may not be enough to "kill" it. In Bleach We Trust. Also boiling water or an autoclave, if you happen to have one at home.

@ 0:24

The goggles. This thing may actually pass through the eye barrier.  :(

@ 0:40

The gloves. I would keep a pair of gloves with my "going out " clothes. I wouldn't bring either the gloves or the unwashed clothes inside the home. I would wash them with bleach and water and store them on their own pile along with the masks and other "sterile" PPE.

Also, I would wear latex gloves under the gloves.

@ 1:04

Now he may have some copies on his jeans. He wore gloves as a barrier when interacting with the world. Use them, then get home and sterilize them with 10% bleach.


@ the groceries

If everyone wore gloves and facemasks, the risk of a droplet laying on top of a box of Oreos would be ridiculously low.



Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 29, 2020, 12:32:00 PM
But does that work for influenzas? We still get flu pandemics, don’ We?

Yes. The mortality rate of common colds is not very high. It is not worth stopping the world to avoid a few days of sickness. However, if the numbers on this are true, this is a killer cold. If it became common it would be a huge hit to world population and order.  If it is contained it will eventually disappear with the change of seasons. ( I assume)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 02:21:05 PM
Confirmed: 6145
Dead: 132

----------------------

China Coronavirus: UAE Confirms Four Members of Chinese Family First Cases in Middle East
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

Four people from the same Chinese family are reported to be in a stable condition and are under medical observation.

Gulf airports, including Dubai is home to one of the world’s biggest aviation hubs.

... It wasn’t immediately clear how the family left Wuhan and made it all the way to the UAE. China shut down Wuhan’s airport and other transport in the city last Thursday to stop the spread of the virus.

---------------------------

Coronavirus: First Reported Cases of Foreigners Infected in China

At least three foreigners – two from Australia and one from Pakistan – have contracted the coronavirus while in the southern Chinese province of Guangdong, according to provincial authorities

-------------------------

China Coronavirus: Hong Kong Professor Yuen Kwok-yung Says Effectiveness of Drugs Could be Judged Within Weeks, with Tests Due to Start in City

University of Hong Kong scientists looking at whether drugs used during Sars epidemic will work for those infected with Wuhan coronavirus.

... Yuen, the chairman for infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, said the protease inhibitor Kaletra had been effective in treating severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) in 2003.

-------------------------

Cross Infection at China’s Coronavirus Epicentre?

Li Ruiqi’s mother went into a Wuhan hospital for an operation. Now she has the infection but nowhere to go for treatment

One doctor says many medical staff lacked an awareness of infectious diseases and were unprepared for crisis

---------------------------

China Coronavirus: Fears of Economic Contagion Grow as Cities Turn into Ghost Towns

As coronavirus has spread from Wuhan, many Chinese cities have become virtual ghost towns amid aggressive measures to contain the disease

There are signs the economic impact could be deeper than during the severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in 2002-2003

------------------------

Long Queues at Outlets Across Hong Kong Selling Masks, as Panic Buying Continues Amid Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048097/long-queues-outlets-across-hong-kong-selling

Hundreds of people queued up for face masks across Hong Kong on Wednesday amid a shortfall of protective gear in a city gripped by the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak.

At some outlets of Thai lifestyle chain AbouThai – which has 14 stores citywide – some buyers showed up as early as 7am – five hours before new batches of masks arrived for retailers

Commerce and Economic Development Bureau says it has met retailers and urged those with shipment issues to contact it for help

... “For a person who needs to go outside … they will use up to three disposable masks,” Ho said. “If 1 million belong to this category, that’s 3 million masks per day, 90 million per month.”

He also said health care workers in public hospitals used as many as 300,000 masks daily at the peak of the 2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic.


Lam Wai-man, chairman of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Pharmacy, said 80 per cent of surgical masks sold in the city were manufactured on the mainland. As the virus has spread to almost all provinces in China, he said the internal demand for masks was large and Hong Kong “will have to queue”.

“We’ve asked Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, who all said they have no stock,” Lam added.

Meanwhile, two distributors of surgical masks in Hong Kong said they were out of stock and unsure of when next shipments were due.

---------------------------

China’s Virus Outbreak Triggers a Global Run on Face Masks
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-29/china-s-virus-outbreak-triggers-a-global-run-on-face-masks

On Amazon and Alibaba, many shops peddling anti-virus masks had run out of stock as of Wednesday. Across China, Hong Kong and Singapore, people lined up for hours at stores and pharmacies hoping to secure dwindling supplies. People from San Francisco to Orlando said they were unable to find surgical masks at their usual outlets.

China’s government has responded to the worsening shortage by cracking down on vendors who sell fake masks or overcharge online. Over 80 shops on e-commerce platform Taobao, run by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., allegedly sold counterfeit 3M and N95 face masks, Chinese state-media reported Monday. The company said on its official Weibo account it removed shops found to engage in false advertising or price rigging. The e-commerce site said it sold 80 million face masks through Taobao within two days.

.... Good hand hygiene, including the regular use of an alcohol-based sanitizer, may be more effective than face masks at preventing transmission of the 2019-nCoV virus, said Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Australia’s Canberra Hospital.

----------------------------

https://youtu.be/YquhnBRlshU
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 03:08:45 PM
Excellent Infographic Link
Includes maps, population movement, timelines, symptoms, statistics ...
https://multimedia.scmp.com/infographics/news/china/article/3047038/wuhan-virus/index.html

----------------------------

China Coronavirus: Shelves Cleared of Essentials as Spread sparks Hong Kong panic buying
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

Food and disinfectants sell out at some city supermarkets.

Stores in Yuen Long had sold out of greens by early Wednesday afternoon

... One employee, who declined to be named, said supply had stayed the same but demand had surged. “Just like surgical face masks. It’s a special period right now,” he said.

--------------------

Singapore Reports Three More China Coronavirus Cases, Bringing Its Total to 10

--------------------------

Coronavirus Testing Expands Beyond Airports to El Paso Border Crossings
https://kvia.com/health/2020/01/28/coronavirus-testing-expands-to-el-paso-including-airport-border-crossings/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 29, 2020, 04:31:50 PM
With the extensive quarantine having begun 6 days ago, hopefully we will begin to see the impacts of that action with a dramatic decline in the R0.

All sorts of parameter combinations can approximate the spread so far.

One such is an average R0 of 3.6, a mean generation time of 3 days, 2 days infective without systems, then a mean appearance of symptoms at day 5, hospitalization then and formal confirmation on day 7 and death 6 days later on average for 10% of those infected. If as has been suggested, 15% of people are essentially insusceptible to it, then the CFR needs to be increased to 12%.

This is not in any way a formal analysis. This is an overly simplistic model. And it is just one set of parameters that approximately fits the data. It should not be extrapolated more than a few days. This set of parameters results in a daily rate of confirmed cases at a factor of 1.52. Some suggested fits have daily rates as low as 1.32 or as high as 1.61. One analysis I’ve seen suggests an increasing rate through that range from 1.3 to 1.6.

At 6 days since people quit moving in Wuhan and restricted themselves, the spread should have dramatically slowed. However that takes significant time to show up in the data. We should only begin to see the impact of that in 2 to 5 days from now. Death rate counts will take another week to begin to slow down.

Many of the data fits have similar parameters. Generally they suggest generation times between 3 and 4.5 days.  And what those suggest is that we should hopefully see a strong decline in the increase (a slowing in the rate of increase) in confirmed case numbers in just a few days.

If we don’t see a decline in the rate within a week it suggests that the quarantine is less effective than we all may hope and wish.

Sam.

I think you can add an extra week to these 2 to 5 days. If you look at the incubation periode, than most of the cases you have today come from people that were already infected before the lockdown on the 23th. And just before the lockdown 5 million peope left Wuhan. That's almost half the city. Why would these 5 million people be less infected than the ones that stayed ? And in the most extreme cases, an incubation of 14 days. They are not going to have any symptons for another 5 to 6 days. And how many people did they infected on their way out of Wuhan, and at the place where they are now. Almost al the cases are from Wuhan so far. Very little signes from these 5 million people that left the city. Or there has to be a reason why they would be less infected.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 29, 2020, 05:19:48 PM
The virus is spreading far and wide.

Finland's first coronavirus case confirmed in Lapland
A Chinese tourist in Lapland has tested positive for novel coronavirus.
https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finlands_first_coronavirus_case_confirmed_in_lapland/11182855
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on January 29, 2020, 05:20:28 PM
Arch wrote: " Facemasks are certainly effective..."

I just heard an expert on the radio (US National Public Radio) claim that there is actually no study that shows that the kinds of facemasks that are widely available have any effect on stopping the spread of the flu or the common cold.

And note the quote from one of the articles vox just linked:
Quote
.... Good hand hygiene, including the regular use of an alcohol-based sanitizer, may be more effective than face masks at preventing transmission of the 2019-nCoV virus, said Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Australia’s Canberra Hospital.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 29, 2020, 05:47:21 PM
I agree with your disagreement KiwiGriff. Your specificity is welcomed.

Ironically, by agreeing with your disagreement I'm in a state of disagreement with El Cid.

El Cid, can we make it two in a row?

👍
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 06:03:17 PM
Arch wrote: " Facemasks are certainly effective..."

I just heard an expert on the radio (US National Public Radio) claim that there is actually no study that shows that the kinds of facemasks that are widely available have any effect on stopping the spread of the flu or the common cold. (...did he say anything about coronavirus?)

And note the quote from one of the articles vox just linked:
Quote
.... Good hand hygiene, including the regular use of an alcohol-based sanitizer, may be more effective than face masks at preventing transmission of the 2019-nCoV virus, said Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician and microbiologist at Australia’s Canberra Hospital.
The NPR expert might want to take a refresher with the CDC ...

Quote
Interim Guidance for the Use of Masks to Control Seasonal Influenza Virus Transmission: ... A surgical mask or fit-tested respirator should be worn by healthcare personnel who are within 6 feet of a suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza patient. A respirator can be selected when antiviral medication supplies are expected to be limited and influenza vaccine is not available, e.g., during a pandemic. Standard and droplet precautions should be maintained until the patient has been determined to be noninfectious or for 7 days after illness onset or until 24 hours after the resolution of fever and respiratory symptoms, whichever is longer, while a patient is in a healthcare facility. In some cases, facilities may choose to apply droplet precautions for longer periods based on clinical judgment, such as in the case of young children or severely immunocompromised patients, who may shed influenza virus for longer periods of time. Further guidance is available at: Prevention Strategies for Seasonal Influenza in Healthcare Setting
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/maskguidance.htm

and

Quote
Prevention Strategies for Seasonal Influenza in Healthcare Settings: ... Health Care Provider (HCP) should don a facemask when entering the room of a patient with suspected or confirmed influenza. Remove the facemask when leaving the patient’s room, dispose of the facemask in a waste container, and perform hand hygiene.

If some facilities and organizations opt to provide employees with alternative personal protective equipment, this equipment should provide the same protection of the nose and mouth from splashes and sprays provided by facemasks (e.g., face shields and N95 respirators or powered air purifying respirators).
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/healthcaresettings.htm

and

Quote
Interim Healthcare Infection Prevention and Control Recommendations for Patients Under Investigation for 2019-nCoV:... recommended personal protective equipment or PPE (e.g., gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 29, 2020, 06:13:08 PM
WHO Officials Say Coronavirus Spread Outside of China is of ‘Grave Concern
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/29/who-officials-say-coronavirus-spread-outside-of-china-is-of-grave-concern.html

The spread of a fast-moving virus outside of China is of “grave concern” and has prompted the World Health Organization to reconvene an emergency meeting this week to decide whether it’s a global health emergency.

... The coronavirus has spread to a handful of people through human-to-human contact outside of China, Dr. Mike Ryan, executive director of WHO’s health emergencies programme, said at a press conference at the organization’s Geneva headquarters Wednesday.

These developments in terms of the evolution of the outbreak and further development of transmission, these are of grave concern and has spurred countries into action,” he said, adding that he just returned from China on Wednesday. “What we know at this stage, this is still obviously a very active outbreak and information is being updated and changing by the hour.

The coronavirus outbreak has killed 132 people in China and sickened more than 6,150 across more than a dozen countries across the globe. Ryan said there are currently 71 cases outside of China in 15 other countries.

One of the criteria used to determine whether the coronavirus is an international health threat is whether the disease spreads locally once it arrives in new parts of the world, “and that’s a nuanced and important distinction to make,” Ryan told reporters last week.

... WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the “continued increase in cases and the evidence of human-to-human transmission outside of China are, of course, most deeply disturbing.”

“Although the numbers outside China are still relatively small, they hold the potential for a much larger outbreak,” Tedros said.

https://twitter.com/DrTedros/status/1222543539587964930

----------------------------

Sudan suspects that two of its citizens who returned to the country from China are infected with the new coronavirus, the information minister told Reuters.

-----------------------------

Germany confirms three further cases of coronavirus
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-three-further-cases-of-coronavirus/a-52181064

Germany confirms human transmission of coronavirus
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-human-transmission-of-coronavirus/a-52169007

---------------------------------

Coronavirus: 25 Photos From Wuhan Under Quarantine
https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2020/01/coronavirus-photos-wuhan-under-quarantine/605605/

(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/photo/2020/01/wuhan/w13_1196122874/main_900.jpg?1580155301)

...

(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/photo/2020/01/wuhan/w12_1196130133/main_900.jpg?1580151327)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on January 29, 2020, 06:31:31 PM
The NPR expert might want to take a refresher with the CDC ...
...
The guidelines to which you refer are for reducing the risk of transmission in healthcare settings, specifically for reducing for the risk of healthcare workers themselves acquiring an illness when involved in direct patient care from someone known (or suspected) to have an illness.

Dr. Collignon's comment was regarding the risk of reducing transmission in the community where (even in Wuhan) the majority of people do not have the illness and direct intimate contact between unacquainted individuals is rare. From a public health perspective it's more cost effective in this setting to have universal hand hygiene than millions of disposable masks.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 29, 2020, 06:34:35 PM
Arch wrote: " Facemasks are certainly effective..."

I just heard an expert on the radio (US National Public Radio) claim that there is actually no study that shows that the kinds of facemasks that are widely available have any effect on stopping the spread of the flu or the common cold.

Correct.  Face masks are more of a control measure for sick people spreading germs to over people.  They should be prioritized to people with any symptoms and people treating those symptoms, not to people in fear of contracting the virus. 

So far it appears the majority of the cases have been connected to Wuhan and that leads me to believe that the initial outbreak so far seems to be from the first mutation stage.  The second mutation stage(human-human transmission) has happened, but the R0 of that mutation seems relatively low at this time.  This could possible be due to the extreme measures China has put in place to contain the outbreak.

As long as the virus doesn't mutate again and become airborne, then I feel this should be contained and fizzle out in a few months.

Praying i'm right about this.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 29, 2020, 06:43:53 PM
Finland's case in Lapland (A traveller from Wuhan) has been confirmed as being Corona.

I was on the belief this had already been solved that it's a virus of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Indian_civet and relatives and that's attempted to jump species before, too ( SARS and a couple other outbreaks) , but maybe it's a new one.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 29, 2020, 06:47:16 PM
There is another issue of concern that has so far gone unremarked.

The genetic analysis of the variants of the virus trace back to an estimated common ancestor on or about November 29, 2019.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

The first human cases were identified about December 29th, implying infection no earlier than December 17, and more likely as late as December 24.

Yet the genetic tree shows several branching events about that time, and dozens of variants before that time. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not a virologist. But, that would seem to suggest that the commonly presented story of a single infection from a single zoonotic jump at the Wuhan market in late December must be wrong. There has to have been, or seem to have to have been multiple infections in a short time frame with more than a dozen variants.

Alternately, there was a single infection back about November 20-24. And that infected person went undetected and gave rise to the variants.

The large number of variants all at once seems odd. They do fall into four or five fairly tight clusters, so perhaps the number of seeming variants is not unusual.

Still, this seems to point to two possibilities. 1) the zoonotic jump occurred a month earlier than has been believed, or 2) the zoonotic infection occurred many times with variants in a short period.

I have no idea what to make of that. And I don't know enough to know if this is usually seen to happen this way, or if this is unusual. It does look curious.

What most concerns me is that if there is a wild pool of the virus in some other species (most likely bats, next most likely snakes) which is rapidly mutating in that population, that it may be much harder to ultimately contain the disease. And the natural pool may be a source for continued new variants of the virus to emerge.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 29, 2020, 07:01:30 PM
There is another issue of concern that has so far gone unremarked.

The genetic analysis of the variants of the virus trace back to an estimated common ancestor on or about November 29, 2019.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

The first human cases were identified about December 29th, implying infection no earlier than December 17, and more likely as late as December 24.

Yet the genetic tree shows several branching events about that time, and dozens of variants before that time. Please correct me if I am wrong. I am not a virologist. But, that would seem to suggest that the commonly presented story of a single infection from a single zoonotic jump at the Wuhan market in late December must be wrong. There has to have been, or seem to have to have been multiple infections in a short time frame with more than a dozen variants.

Alternately, there was a single infection back about November 20-24. And that infected person went undetected and gave rise to the variants.

The large number of variants all at once seems odd. They do fall into four or five fairly tight clusters, so perhaps the number of seeming variants is not unusual.

Still, this seems to point to two possibilities. 1) the zoonotic jump occurred a month earlier than has been believed, or 2) the zoonotic infection occurred many times with variants in a short period.

I have no idea what to make of that. And I don't know enough to know if this is usually seen to happen this way, or if this is unusual. It does look curious.

What most concerns me is that if there is a wild pool of the virus in some other species (most likely bats, next most likely snakes) which is rapidly mutating in that population, that it may be much harder to ultimately contain the disease. And the natural pool may be a source for continued new variants of the virus to emerge.

Sam

2) the zoonotic infection occurred many times with variants in a short period.
This seems to be the case as human-human transmission outside of china remains low

What most concerns me is that if there is a wild pool of the virus in some other species (most likely bats, next most likely snakes) which is rapidly mutating in that population, that it may be much harder to ultimately contain the disease. And the natural pool may be a source for continued new variants of the virus to emerge.

Nature posted this article about SARS linked to horsebats 3 years ago.  At the end the researches warned that an outbreak like SARS remained a possibility due to the often mixing of strains of the virus within the bat population.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 29, 2020, 07:57:40 PM
Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China


This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
AbstractInfo/HistoryMetrics Preview PDF

Abstract
We estimate the effective reproduction number for 2019-nCoV based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The results indicate that 2019-nCoV has a higher effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

Can someone link a copy of the PDF here for us to read?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 29, 2020, 08:24:46 PM
Estimating the effective reproduction number of the 2019-nCoV in China


This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.
AbstractInfo/HistoryMetrics Preview PDF

Abstract
We estimate the effective reproduction number for 2019-nCoV based on the daily reported cases from China CDC. The results indicate that 2019-nCoV has a higher effective reproduction number than SARS with a comparable fatality rate.

Can someone link a copy of the PDF here for us to read?

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1 (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1)

The link to the full manuscript is on that page.  The link is:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf)

They estimate an R0 of about 4.  This is extremely worrisome. 
Unless the virus is magically less transmissible when outside of China's borders, I don't see much cause for optimism for the global situation.

Though, it might plausibly be most transmissible in populations with chronically poor air quality.  I found a reference that with the MERS epidemic, being a current smoker was a major risk factor for disease.   Living in an urban center in China may be biologically equivalent to being a current smoker. 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: FrostKing70 on January 29, 2020, 09:01:21 PM
Peer reviewed means it has been sent to people knowledgeable on the subject (peers) so they can review and comment on the methodology used, data set, and data analysis (if applicable).  The authors then have to address the concerns / issues raised by their peers.  This can take days, weeks, or months, depending on the seriousness of the concerns.

Most reputable science journals won't publish an article until it has been peer reviewed and the comments addressed.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 29, 2020, 09:23:52 PM
Update 9:30 Zulu
6165 cases.
133 deaths .
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on January 29, 2020, 09:27:11 PM
...

The link to the full manuscript is on that page.  The link is:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.27.20018952v1.full.pdf)

...

Quote
Using the data described above, R is estimated to be 4.08, indicating that an infected patient infects more than four susceptible people during the outbreak. This value substantially exceeds WHO's estimate of R0 (supposed to be smaller than R) between 1.4 and 2.5, and is also higher than a recent R0 estimate between 3.6 and 4.0.

Hopefully the peer-review process will provide some clarification here because something doesn’t make sense. R0 is supposed to be larger than R; this follows from the definition R = xR0 where 0 < x < 1. I wonder if the authors transposed some of their Rs and R0s somewhere along the way.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 29, 2020, 09:35:48 PM
Quote
This post will surprise you. You’ll think I am nuts, it took me some time to decide to write all of this down. Please read til the end, there’s links all along so you can fact check everything. Please share it, so truth is spread. It's about coronavirus. Enter thread:

Link >> https://twitter.com/daninovaramaen/status/1221835088842973185?s=21

That guy is a nut.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 29, 2020, 09:46:52 PM
^^
Here is showing how easy it is to make fake news.
BTW how long does it take for a survivor to recover?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on January 29, 2020, 09:52:23 PM
vox in his last quote addressing my quote mentions N95 respirators.

Yes, those are what are commonly used in medical settings, but my understanding is that they are not the ones readily available to the public that are now flying off shelves.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 29, 2020, 10:04:39 PM
There is a graph now being shared that overlays the estimated death rates by age for SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV.

It suggests a roughly 8% fatality rate for folks aged 20-59, a 38% fatality rate for people aged 60-69, and 85% for those 70 years of age and older.

I would recommend taking all estimates on case fatality rate cautiously. This virus is spreading very rapidly. If we take the most recent paper (previous in this thread) for example... it and the general data point to the problem.


With an R0 of 4.08 and 1 day from admission to confirmation of having the virus, the current confirmed case count rate would suggest a mean 4.35 day generation length, a mean 7.9 day time from confirmed infection to death (if death occurs), and a mean of 6 additional days to confirmed recovery for this who recover. This also suggests a growth rate factor of 1.62 per day. The death total would also then be about 1/45th of the confirmed count rate. And that suggests a 10-12% average case fatality rate when you combine it with the survival counts and delays.

Other R0’s and assumptions would generate equally plausible matches to the data with slight differences in all of these parameters.

Many of the estimates of case fatality rates do not appear to follow whole cohorts from infection to death or recovery. Instead, they often seem to use the current case counts or to track individual case to death or recovery without temporally correlating these.

For SARS and MERS, the pandemic spread was slower. That rendered this time difference problem less important.

These potential problems both suggest taking estimates of a lower overall case fatality rate (~4%) and a much higher elderly death rate (~85%) cautiously and with a good dose of skeptical analysis.

There also may be issues with the implicit assumption that the uncounted population looks similar enough to the admitted and counted population to consider them to be the same and to then use standard statistical measures. This may not be true. Pre-existing health issues may make these populations significantly different. And what that suggests is that we need to be quite careful in making projections, and in how we use the data.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 29, 2020, 11:18:42 PM
What The 1918 Spanish Flu Can Tell Us About The Coronavirus
https://www.peakprosperity.com/what-the-1918-spanish-flu-can-tell-us-about-the-coronavirus/
Quote
An often-overlooked part of the damage a virulent pandemic can do is its impact on supply chains and the economy.

If you’ve got 20 to 30% of your air traffic controllers sick at the same time, what’s that going to do to your economy?

Most of the power plants in the United States are still coal powered. They get their coal, most of them, from Wyoming. You see these enormous trains – that’s a highly skilled position, the engineers who move those trains which are a mile and a half long. Suppose they’re out. You’re not going to have power in many of the power plants.

These are things that we don’t automatically think of as relating to a pandemic. Even a mild one that makes a lot of people sick without killing them will wreak an economic impact.

In terms of the health care system, practically all of the antibiotics are imported. If you interrupt those supply chains then you start getting people dying from diseases that are unrelated to influenza that they would otherwise survive. We had a small example of that with saline solutions bags which were produced in Puerto Rico. Because of the hurricane, Puerto Rico was no longer producing them; so we had tremendous shortages in those bages after the hurricane. Other suppliers worldwide have picked up the slack, so that’s not a problem today.

But in a pandemic, you’re going to have supply chain issues like that simultaneously all over the world. So you’re not going to be able to call on any reserve, anywhere, because everybody’s going to be in the same situation whether you talk about hypodermic needles or plastic gloves — any of that stuff. The supply chain issues in a moderate pandemic are a real problem. If you’ve got a severe pandemic, the hospitals can’t cope. There are many fewer hospital beds per capita than there used to be because everything has gotten more efficient. In this past year’s bad influenza season, many, many hospitals around the country were so overwhelmed they all but closed their emergency rooms and weren’t talking any more patients for any reason.

There’s just no slack in the system. What efficiency does is eliminate as much as possible what’s considered waste, but that waste is slack. And when you have a surge in something, you need that slack to take care of the surge. If I were grading generously I would give us a D in terms of overall preparedness. If we had a universal influenza vaccine, maybe we’d be relatively okay, but we don’t.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on January 30, 2020, 12:06:18 AM
What The 1918 Spanish Flu Can Tell Us About The Coronavirus
https://www.peakprosperity.com/what-the-1918-spanish-flu-can-tell-us-about-the-coronavirus/
Quote
.... in a pandemic, you’re going to have supply chain issues like that simultaneously all over the world. So you’re not going to be able to call on any reserve, anywhere, because everybody’s going to be in the same situation whether you talk about hypodermic needles or plastic gloves — any of that stuff. The supply chain issues in a moderate pandemic are a real problem. If you’ve got a severe pandemic, the hospitals can’t cope. There are many fewer hospital beds per capita than there used to be because everything has gotten more efficient. In this past year’s bad influenza season, many, many hospitals around the country were so overwhelmed they all but closed their emergency rooms and weren’t talking any more patients for any reason.

There’s just no slack in the system. What efficiency does is eliminate as much as possible what’s considered waste, but that waste is slack. And when you have a surge in something, you need that slack to take care of the surge. If I were grading generously I would give us a D in terms of overall preparedness. If we had a universal influenza vaccine, maybe we’d be relatively okay, but we don’t.

From the front page of WHO situation report #9 on the Novel Coronavirus(2019-nCoV):

Quote
Today, PSCN is launching the first of several teleconference calls with over 30 private sector organizations and 10 multilateral organizations to develop a market capacity and risk assessment for personal protective equipment (PPE). This assessment will be used as the basis to match the global demand for PPE with the global supply. The market and risk assessment for PPE is expected to be completed by 5 February 2020.

I guess they (WHO) are aware that securing a supply chain for these kind of items is quite important.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 12:16:38 AM
China coronavirus: confirmed mainland cases rise to 7,158, with deaths now at 170
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048150/china-coronavirus-confirmed-mainland-cases-rise-7158-deaths-now

The number of known coronavirus cases jumped to 7,158 in China on Wednesday, according to health authorities, raising the global total of 7,251 – and nearing the total infections worldwide in the Sars outbreak of 2002-03.

Health authorities said that in addition to those cases already confirmed, there were still more than 9,000 suspected cases nationwide.

According to state media, the group recommended that after the Lunar New Year holiday, which ends on Sunday, local government agencies should let employees from cities with a high number of confirmed cases work from home rather than require them to come into the office.

Also on Wednesday, state media quoted scientists on a new coronavirus research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences as saying they had invented a test for antibody responses in infected patients, and also identified existing medications that are effective in containing the virus.

The three drugs – Remdesivir, GS-5734, Chloroquine, Sigma-C6628 and Ritonavir – are all “under process of authorisation for the use on patients”, according to the local newspaper Hubei Daily.

The group also said that measures should be taken to push manufacturers of medical supplies in short supply, such as face masks and goggles, to resume production as quickly as possible.

-------------------

The total number of deaths is confirmed to be 170. This is up from 132 reported on Wednesday, and is a rise of of 29%.

Confirmed cases now stand at 7,183, up from 5,974 – a rise of 20%. 


---------------------------

Update: China Coronavirus: Confirmed Mainland Cases RIse to 7,686, With Deaths Now at 170
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

The number of known coronavirus cases jumped to 7,686 in China on Thursday morning including the first confirmed case in Tibet, according to health authorities, raising the global total to at least 7,787 ...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on January 30, 2020, 01:14:40 AM
The only true barometer of this outbreak is the character and # of international cases, which is being tabulated by a Reddit user Maysign https://www.reddit.com/user/Maysign

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 01:23:04 AM
Thank You sark much needed.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 02:13:57 AM
Quote
The three drugs – Remdesivir, GS-5734, Chloroquine, Sigma-C6628 and Ritonavir – are all “under process of authorisation for the use on patients”, according to the local newspaper Hubei Daily.

1 Remdesivir
2 GS-5734
3 Chloroquine
3 again Sigma-C6628
3 yet again Ritonavir
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 02:24:40 AM
Three Japanese nationals who returned home from Wuhan have tested positive for the coronavirus, Japan’s public broadcaster NHK said on Thursday, citing the health ministry. Two of the three had not shown any symptoms, the ministry said, according to NHK.

A Japanese government-chartered plane took 206 people to Tokyo on Wednesday.

The three infected people were among 206 Japanese who were repatriated on a government-chartered plane on Wednesday.

------------------

Australia Records 8th Case of Virus

Australian authorities are reporting a new case of the virus in the state of Queensland. The man flew into Melbourne, spent some time there and then flew to QLD on January 27, where he became unwell. He has been confirmed to have coronavirus and is in isolation in Gold Coast University hospital in a stable condition. The other eight people who were travelling with him are also in isolation in the same hospital. Four of them are unwell and are being tested for coronavirus.

Queensland health authorities are contacting passengers on the flight the group took. They also confirmed that the Chinese women’s national football team is currently in isolation in a Brisbane hotel.

------------------

News flash to Tom.  Learn Pharm nomenclature or do a Google search.

1 Remdesivir is AKA GS-5734
2 Chloroquine is AKA Sigma-C6628
3 Ritonavir

AKA = also known as (manufacturer/international ID)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 03:28:58 AM
(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_large/public/images/epi%20curve%20outside%20China_0.jpg?itok=D5x6Av8P)

Situation Report
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
ECDC is an EU agency aimed at strengthening Europe's defences against infectious diseases. The core functions cover a wide spectrum of activities: surveillance, epidemic intelligence, response, scientific advice, microbiology, preparedness, public health training, international relations, health communication, and the scientific journal Eurosurveillance.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 05:06:12 AM
Update 16:00 Zulu.
7783 cases.
170 deaths.
 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This is not contained .
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Human Habitat Index on January 30, 2020, 05:17:56 AM
Hundreds of millions of Chinese are vulnerable to disease because they are breathing in toxic air.

That's why there are so many cases in China.

Wuhan residents have been protesting vigorously to keep their govt to promises to clean the air.

The WHO said the most vulnerable were people with weakened immune systems,

I have tasted the air in China and advised my son to find a cleaner city or return to Australia.

After getting bronchitis he returned home and recovered.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 06:21:37 AM
'Severe Shortage' of Medical Supplies in Hubei, Says Governor
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-30/Hubei-has-a-severe-shortage-of-medical-supplies-says-governor-NFDtX4DR7i/index.html

Hubei province’s governor, Wang Xiaodong, has said that the whole province has a “severe shortage” of medical supplies, not just Wuhan, according to the broadcaster CGTN. It also reports some medical staff are wearing raincoats and using disposable garbage bags as shoe covers to protect themselves in the city of Huanggang, 75km east of Wuhan.

Wang stressed at the press conference the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in Huanggang City, and vowed to prevent it from becoming the second Wuhan, CGTN reported.

(https://cdn.theatlantic.com/assets/media/img/photo/2020/01/wuhan/w10_1196649958/main_600.jpg?1580155301)

National mask shortage

... Due to the national holiday, current mask production is over eight million each day, comparing to 20 million in normal days, according to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). Meanwhile, they are seeking to purchase overseas.

MIIT data shows China is the world's largest producer and exporter of masks, accounting for about 50 percent of the global production.

"Masks also have a shelf life. If it is not in the emergency period, manufacturers and hospitals won't stock in piles. The quota of surgical masks for each of hospital is just enough for medical staff," the head of the supply allocation of MIIT explained.

Besides restoring the domestic production, MIIT is planning to ask Chinese mask exporters to sell domestically.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 30, 2020, 07:04:02 AM
From the Chinese web site.

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-01-29 21:08 全国数据统计
数据说明
7742
确诊病例
12167
疑似病例
170
死亡人数
131
治愈人数

As of 2020-01-29 21:08 National Statistics
The data shows:

Confirmed case    7,742
Suspected case  12,167
Death toll               170
Number of cures     131

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 07:37:46 AM
Taiwan’s stock market has closed down 5.75% on its first day of trading after reopening following the lunar new year holiday.

There are also reports that the Taiwan government is planning to intervene to prop up the market. That begs the question of what will happen to China’s mainland stocks when trading recommences next week.

Today has seen another broad selloff on Asian stock markets with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 1.7% in the second successive day of losses. The Nikkei in Tokyo has fallen nearly 2% and the Kospi in Seoul is down 1.8%. The ASX200 in Sydney has closed down 0.3%. Chinese mainland markets are still closed for the new year holiday.

... The world’s most important policymaker, US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday that he was watching the situation in China closely.

“There is likely to be some disruption to activity in China and globally,” he said. “It’s very uncertain how far it will spread and what the (economic) effects will be in China, for its trading partners, and around the world.... We are very carefully monitoring the situation.”

The concerns were betrayed in the bond markets where the three-month-10-year US treasury yield curve inverted, a classic indicator of recession.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 30, 2020, 07:51:58 AM
If this thing is uncontained then no question we are going to see a very sharp but very fast recession with a huge rebound thereafter. The Fed will cut rates to zero and everyone will restart quantitative easing like crazy. The streets would be empty, noone would go to the cinema, shops, etc...As services make up 70-80% of the modern economy, that would be a huge blow
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 08:59:35 AM
We do not have enough information .
Too many ifs.
In the west the drastic actions taken in china would not happen until far to late to stop a pandemic.
If it is easily transmitted and individuals can infect others with out showing  symptoms themselves .......
What would be the impact with 20% of the population needing intensive care and 2% dead over a few months?
There is no rise in cases as yet in the west suggesting it is an emerging threat.
We will know in a few weeks until then  it needs to be watched carefully.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 11:41:56 AM
vox_mundi:
There were no ‘AKA’s in the quote above. There were just a list of five screwy names, with noting to indicate there were two with two names each in the list except the number at the start.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 12:12:40 PM
63% of Infected Patients Undetected by Airport Screening
https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/airport_screening_report/airport_screening_preprint_2020_01_28.pdf

Almost two-thirds of airport screening tests fail to detect people with coronavirus, according to new research.

Researchers at the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have modelled the effectiveness of screening based on estimates of the incubation period and sensitivity of detection techniques.

They found are using “generally conservative assumptions” more than 63% of infected patients do not get detected. A paper on the research warned that such screening “is only achievable if the rate of asymptomatic infections that are transmissible is negligible, screening sensitivity is almost perfect, and the incubation period is short.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/BQuilty/status/1222271221582221313

We've made an interactive tool to visualise the effectiveness of airport screening for detecting #2019nCoV cases. Adjust travel times, incubation period length, screening sensitivities and more at https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/airport-screening

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPZhMhMX0AY4bWZ?format=jpg&name=small)

---------------------

China Coronavirus: the Philippines, India Confirm First Cases

A 38-year-old Chinese woman, who arrived in the Philippines from Wuhan on January 21, has tested positive for the virus

And in India, a student who returned from the Chinese city at the epicentre of the outbreak has also been placed in isolation in a hospital in Kerala state

---------------------

Russia closes its border with China

Russia is closing its border with China to prevent the spread of coronavirus and will stop issuing electronic visas to Chinese nationals, AFP reports.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told a government meeting that the order had been signed “to take measures to close the border (with China) in the Far East”.

“We have to do everything to protect our people,” he said.

---------------------------

China Coronavirus: Hong Kong Prisoners To Work Through the Night To Boost Mask Production To 70,000 a day

But source inside administration says extra supplies will be for government use

Inmates at Lo Wu Correctional Institution currently produce about 45,000 masks daily

------------------------

China Coronavirus: US Agriculture Secretary Unsure If Trade Deal Farm Purchase Agreement Will Be Affected

Coronavirus has cast further doubt on China’s ability to buy US$36.5 billion of agricultural goods from the United States in 2020 as part of the phase one trade deal.

US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the outbreak will have ‘ramifications economy-wide’, though stopped short of saying it would disrupt purchase goal
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 30, 2020, 12:14:47 PM
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 01:05:33 PM
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.

I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: nanning on January 30, 2020, 01:18:38 PM
Re: last blumenkraft post

"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

Sellers have buyers. Who is 'we'?
Welcome to the cultural unstoppable system of profit/commerce/fictional finance.
Even the AGW/Biosphere collapse threat can't change/stop it ;).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 01:22:38 PM
bk: In general, I agree with your geegaw observation, however, in this particular case, the agricultural products mean food for the Chinese and employment for US agricultural workers.

However, the issue may be moot.

Should the virus go global in a big way (which it appears to be doing); all 5 global breadbaskets will not have enough workers to take care of the fields.

We only have ~ 40 days of carryover grain stock.

A vaccine is still 12-18 months away.

Famine will show up before then.

--------------------------

'Skunkworks’ at Johnson & Johnson is Rushing to Develop a Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.inquirer.com/business/drugs/coronavirus-johnson-and-johnson-stoffels-wuhan-20200128.html?outputType=amp

The chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson said the company began work two weeks ago on a vaccine to battle the deadly coronavirus outbreak centered in China.

“At the moment we think we can make a vaccine and bring it to humans in the next eight to 12 months,” said Paul Stoffels in an interview with The Inquirer. “It might be faster. We have to get to the point we know where it works in animals first.”

Although eight to 12 months may sound glacially slow, pharmaceutical experts said the timeline was relatively rapid yet conservatively realistic.

The company is conducting its Wuhan coronavirus research in Leiden, in the Netherlands. Stoffels spoke to The Inquirer from Leiden after addressing scientists at its labs.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 30, 2020, 01:35:17 PM
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.
I agree with the brainwashing, but we must not forget the same brainwashing has distorted the true meaning of an economy.

The economy is supposed to be our slave, not our master. It's not about market valuations, growth rates and the ever-growing amount of useless crap we sell to each other.  We need a functioning economy to support people's livelihoods, to put food an the table, to educate kids and to care for the sick and the elderly.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 01:42:07 PM
Cruise Ship in Italy On Lockdown In Virus Scare

Thousands of people are being kept on board an Italian cruise ship as tests are carried out on two Chinese passengers suspected of having caught coronavirus, a spokesman for the Costa Crociere cruise company has said.

Reuters reports:

... The couple arrived in Italy on 25 January and boarded the ship, the Costa Smeralda, in the port of Savona that same day. They subsequently came down with a fever and are suffering breathing difficulties.

The liner has visited Marseilles in France, and the Spanish ports of Barcelona and Palma de Mallorca this week before docking on Thursday at Civitavecchia, north of Rome.


(https://i.gr-assets.com/images/S/compressed.photo.goodreads.com/books/1384878730l/18857938.jpg)

----------------

Update: The Italian news agency Agenzia Ansa has reported that the Chinese couple suspected of catching Coronavirus have been tested negative.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 01:42:42 PM
Coronavirus Update: The Calm Before The Storm
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-update-the-calm-before-the-storm/
Quote
The sudden lack of new information coming out of China has Chris spooked.
He walks us through the math here, showing how if the coronavirus follows its current geometric growth, over 100 million people could be infected by the end of February:
Don’t take today’s lack of ‘news’ as meaning the threat from this virus is dying down.
This could very likely just be the calm before the storm.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 30, 2020, 01:46:02 PM
FWIW I doubt there is evidence that surgical masks, despite their popularity in Asia, prevent infections at all. They are meant to use in confined places such as operation rooms to protect vulnerable individuals such as patients under surgery. Hand sanitizer and good hygiene are likely to be far more useful.

Same applies to random fever controls on airports etc. Non-symptomatic carriers will be undetected as well as people who are infected but still able to lower temperature with anti-flammatory painkillers. The total effect of fever controls is probably net-negative, when taking into the account resources dedicated to handle false positives.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 30, 2020, 01:46:41 PM
"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

172 deaths so far. Confirmed cases in last 4 days have gone from 941 to 7783. Looks to me like deaths will almost certainly follow increasing by a factor of least 6 needed to get past 1000. Or we could say back on Sunday estimated infections were 30,000 to 200,000 and death rate of 4% is lowest estimate I have seen. Even assuming low end 30,000, no increase from then, and lowest death rate gets to over a 1000.

I think we should be very relieved if death tolls stays below 2000. 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 02:03:34 PM
Thailand admits it is 'unable to stop the spread' of China's deadly coronavirus as health minister warns more cases are coming
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7938887/Thailand-admits-unable-stop-spread-Chinas-deadly-coronavirus.html
Quote
Health minister Anutin Charnvirakul said there are too many Chinese visitors
At least 22,000 people from Wuhan are believed to have visited in January
Thailand, with 14 cases, is so far the worst affected country outside of China
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 30, 2020, 02:10:52 PM
"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

Maths.

Quote
Who is 'we'?

We are the people who need things to live.

The stock market is not what provides us such things. It's we the people who make things.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2020, 02:30:12 PM
Quote
Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 1/29/20, 8:04 PM
Still a whole ton of aviation happening in China. #WuhanCoronavirus #coronoavirus
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1222687051314802690
Image below.

Edit:
Airlines suspend China flights over coronavirus - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 30, 2020, 03:04:17 PM


I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.

Good luck with any grocery market if this one goes global :)
Buy enough food for at least a month if you are worried (potatoes, rice, beans, pasta, apples, onions , etc)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 03:08:49 PM
Quote
FWIW I doubt there is evidence that surgical masks, despite their popularity in Asia, prevent infections at all. They are meant to use in confined places such as operation rooms to protect vulnerable individuals such as patients under surgery. Hand sanitizer and good hygiene are likely to be far more useful.

They are meant to cover the two orifices that lead to soft wet tissue (I'm sure it has a name), the mouth and the nose. The human skin offers outstanding protection against most infections, however soft tissues like lungs do not offer such protection. One virii might get through the mouth, travel straight to the stomach where it is broken down and eventually harmlessly pooped. Another virii might enter through the mouse but make the wrong turn and go into the lungs, where it finds a home inside a cell that it likes and trouble begins. The virii become virus.

With infections, the number of virus matter. A few may get lost in the system or be taken out by the immune system. But the more there are, the higher the chance a virus can assert itself. So cutting the amount of getting in is important.

On simple inspection, placing a barrier on the mouth and nose reduces the number of particles getting in, thus the number of virus entering is likely reduced. A PROPERLY FITTED N95 respirator is scientifically proven to block 95% of particulates. A shirt over the mouth might block 50%(completely made up number). 

As usual, it is not so simple. A properly fitted, properly donned and properly disposed of N95 respirator offers almost perfect protection. However, a used mask, an improperly worn mask or a damaged mask may not.

And that's only talking about personal protection. I think where masks truly shine is in preventing fluids from coming out of the body and becoming aerosolized in the first place.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on January 30, 2020, 03:34:35 PM


https://twitter.com/2mmbPkM00IJwIUV/status/1222455706613252097 (https://twitter.com/2mmbPkM00IJwIUV/status/1222455706613252097)

https://twitter.com/amcraftee/status/1222630026434056192 (https://twitter.com/amcraftee/status/1222630026434056192)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 03:50:26 PM
No context. No video date. Fake News?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 04:24:23 PM
May 10, 2018: Top White House Official in Charge of Pandemic Response Exits Abruptly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/?outputType=amp

Rear Adm. R. Timothy Ziemer the Trump administration's senior director for global health security and biodefense at the National Security Council, and top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security.
Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism.

--------------------

January 22, 2020: Trump: Chinese Coronavirus 'Totally Under Control'
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/22/trump-chinese-coronavirus-totally-under-control-102054

President Donald Trump said today the U.S. has a deadly Chinese coronavirus “totally under control” and there are no worries of a pandemic. ... “It’s going to be just fine.” ...

(https://tribunecontentagency.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/rss.tribunecontentagency.com20200123edshe-b.tifampp-39c139d9263a9043852ea8e2b32e65653282ea88)

--------------------

January 29, 2020: White House Announces Task Force to Monitor Coronavirus Pandemic
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/480627-white-house-announces-task-force-to-monitor-coronavirus?amp

The White House on Wednesday announced the formation of a task force to monitor the coronavirus as global health officials seek to combat the outbreak of the disease in China.

Press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement that the task force has met daily since Monday and will lead the government response to monitor and contain the disease. President Trump chaired a meeting on the matter at the White House earlier Wednesday. (... Mr anti-science, himself)

Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar is leading the task force, the White House said. Other members include national security adviser Robert O'Brien, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield, top National Institutes of Health official Anthony Fauci and several other administration officials.

-----------------------------

U.S. Warned to Prepare for Worst on Coronavirus
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-china-us-experts-spread-preparation-6997e54b-b3b5-4999-a0b7-5bd0a881e647.html

The U.S. should be preparing for the worst as the Chinese coronavirus spreads, and somebody at the White House needs to be in charge of coordinating that effort, public health experts say.

The big picture: The virus may never become a crisis here, but experts say the responsible thing right now is to plan for the worst and hope that those plans aren't needed.

The catch: The National Security Council official who would have been in charge of leading the response to a pandemic left in 2018, and now no one is around to do the job.

Containing and combating a viral outbreak involves border patrol and national security officials; public health agencies at the federal, state and local levels; public and private vaccine researchers; and coordinating with individual hospitals.

What’s next: Experts say there are a handful of priorities at this stage.

Hospitals need to stock up on protective equipment, to the extent they can find more supplies.

Health care workers are particularly susceptible to catching and spreading viruses like this one. But in terms of having enough protective equipment on hand, hospitals are "woefully unprepared" for a large-scale outbreak, Osterholm said.

The federal government also needs to be ready to step in, if a large number of cases start to crop up in concentrated areas.

Tracking infected people's contacts is "going to overwhelm state and local public health departments very, very quickly," Klain said.

It makes sense to put one person in charge of coordinating all of that, Klain said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 04:25:01 PM


I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.

Good luck with any grocery market if this one goes global :)
Buy enough food for at least a month if you are worried (potatoes, rice, beans, pasta, apples, onions , etc)
I live in a small apartment style condo with limited storage space. I have some stocks of food, especially this time of year (I live at the western end of Lake Erie’s snowbelt) but there is no way I can store enough for a month.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 04:30:21 PM
Quote
Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 1/29/20, 8:04 PM
Still a whole ton of aviation happening in China. #WuhanCoronavirus #coronoavirus
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1222687051314802690
Image below.

Edit:
Airlines suspend China flights over coronavirus - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
That’s good to know, but I suspect it is to little too late.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on January 30, 2020, 04:44:50 PM

I live in a small apartment style condo with limited storage space. I have some stocks of food, especially this time of year (I live at the western end of Lake Erie’s snowbelt) but there is no way I can store enough for a month.

Dried rice and beans are compact and non-perishable.  In a pinch, a backpack full will last a month.  Even if your living space is just a closet, that should be doable.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 04:51:07 PM
Surely you can fit a pail of "food" somewhere:

https://www.amazon.com/Augason-Farms-30-Day-Emergency-Storage/dp/B083G4MYQJ/ref=sr_1_1

It just requires some flexibility with the term "food".
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 05:07:46 PM
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.


Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 05:16:53 PM
Rice, beans, pasta.
Add flavor.
You will not stave.
Providing you have water and the ability to cook .
Ok for me I don't rely on anyone else for power, water and sewage disposal.
Some of you may need to reconsider such necessity's if this does take off.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 05:19:32 PM
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.
gerontocrat, my worry is not that the US does not produce enough food to feed itself. My worry is that it won't be able to get that food to the restaurants and store shelves for an uncertain period.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on January 30, 2020, 05:30:24 PM
China coronavirus spreads to India and Philippines | DW News

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DBFwIlT4fg
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 05:38:04 PM
Men May Be More Prone to Coronavirus Than Women, Chinese Study Finds
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048295/men-may-be-more-prone-coronavirus-women-chinese-study-finds

The study – published in The Lancet on Wednesday – was carried out by a team of doctors at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital, which has handled a number of coronavirus patients, along with researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Ruijin Hospital in Shanghai.

The researchers based the study on 99 patients – 67 men and 32 women – admitted to the Wuhan hospital from January 1 to 20. It found that almost half of them were infected in clusters, though Chinese health authorities only confirmed that cases were being transmitted between humans on January 21.

... Half of the patients also had other chronic diseases such as heart problems or diabetes, the researchers said.

They said the mortality rate of the 99 cases was 11 per cent. That compares to an earlier study by doctors from the same hospital and other Chinese scientists based on 41 patients, which put the mortality rate at 15 per cent.

One-third of the patients in the study developed complications and organ failure. Some 17 per cent developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, a serious lung condition, while 8 per cent experienced an acute lung injury and 3 per cent had kidney failure or damage.


Based on these findings, the researchers said early diagnosis and treatment of the coronavirus was crucial.

All of the 99 patients taken to the hospital had pneumonia - their lungs were inflamed and the tiny sacs where oxygen moves from the air to the blood were filling with water.

Other symptoms were:
The South China Morning Post has reported that many patients with flu and respiratory symptoms had been turned away by hospitals in Wuhan because of a shortage of beds.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

----------------------------

China Coronavirus: Study Places Incubation Period Around 5 Days
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3048164/china-coronavirus-study-places-incubation-period-around-5-days

The period between exposure to the new coronavirus that originated in China and symptoms is 5.2 days on average, but varies greatly among patients, according to one of the largest studies yet published on the deadly epidemic.

While admitting that the estimate is “imprecise”, the Chinese team behind a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on Wednesday said their findings support a 14-day medical observation period for people exposed to the pathogen.

They also estimated that each infected person then infected an average of 2.2 other people, a figure known as the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced “R-naught”).

The team also found that human-to-human transmission had been occurring among close contacts since the middle of December 2019.

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus

---------------------------------

Infection Map
https://www.healthmap.org/ncov2019/

----------------------------------

Coronavirus: What It Does To the Body
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51214864

Coronavirus: How Are Patients Treated?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51295415

----------------------------------

South Korea Reports Local Human-to-Human Virus Transmission
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-south-korea-local-human-to-human-virus.html

---------------------------------

The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, the CDC estimates.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 05:43:27 PM
I think this is an outstanding video explaining many details of the current threat:

https://youtu.be/xotNiLJDT-c
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on January 30, 2020, 05:49:14 PM
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation...

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

Buying up lots of (unperishable) food is a zero cost option: You will eventually eat it all up even if there is no emergency. And if there is, you are better off (possibly by far). No risk, potential payout: huge. Best option ever

In every serious cataclysm those who panic first have the best chance to come out of it well (to put it differently: shoot first, ask questions later. And yes it could be harmful for society as a whole. But such are men: not selfless. We have plenty of experience with the above in Central/Eastern Europe
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:07:53 PM
I think this is an outstanding video explaining many details of the current threat:

https://youtu.be/xotNiLJDT-c
This is an excellent lesson on virus and the immune system.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 06:08:55 PM
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 06:20:04 PM
Now I agree with El Cid. Something is not right.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:20:12 PM
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 06:26:12 PM
Ok. Fatality is not a good measure to watch for the severity of this disease. China can build a hospital in a matter of weeks. Everyone gets healthcare. They have billions available to treat.

In a place with fewer resources, it would be running a lot higher. I 'm more interested in knowing what percentage of the patients end up hospitalized. ICU internment probably lost its meaning as prioritization takes place.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 30, 2020, 06:28:01 PM
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available

Quick math check shows less than half that number.  More like 2.08%

I do expect that number to grow as over 20% of cases are listed as sever.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:30:25 PM
Quote
Ok. Fatality is not a good measure to watch for the severity of this disease. China can build a hospital in a matter of weeks. Everyone gets healthcare. They have billions available to treat.
How is it in your country? How is it in mine (USA)?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:31:26 PM
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available

Quick math check shows less than half that number.  More like 2.08%

I do expect that number to grow as over 20% of cases are listed as sever.
Dang.
That will teach me to check my math when I do it in my head (senior moment there).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 30, 2020, 06:40:17 PM
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

The apocalyptic posts on this thread are pretty ridiculous. Get a grip.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 06:41:42 PM
Its the same country, as far as I am concerned. Others may differ.

I have the chance to participate in several mass casualty events as a hospital worker. I know exactly what a hospital overcapacity looks like on both my island and on the mainland. A threat that spreads as easy as this and with high severity to boot, would be disastrous in both, but much worse in mine. Small island vs continent, dense population and poor governance. I'm hoping the warm climate helps keep it away.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:47:24 PM
Senator Calls For Immediate Shut Down of All Flights From China to U.S.
https://summit.news/2020/01/30/senator-calls-for-immediate-shut-down-of-all-flights-from-china-to-u-s/
Quote
Senator Tom Cotton is calling for an immediate shut down of all flights from China to the U.S., warning that Beijing is lying about the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 30, 2020, 06:52:38 PM
First case of human-human transmission in the US.  Not Good!!   :(

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-01-30-20-intl-hnk/h_25483fb8e66eddd53faacd95479aa49b
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 06:55:17 PM
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

The apocalyptic posts on this thread are pretty ridiculous. Get a grip.

This will either blow over or blow up.
If it blows over, I will lock the thread in a month or two and you can forget about it.
If it blows up, the posts on this thread will be the least of your worries.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 07:01:44 PM
SH. I remember 10 years ago when I watched hurricanes forecast after hurricane forecast predict massive destruction only to fail. In the last few years, it has been the opposite. The catastrophe was predicted and they became true.


More than ever I hope you are right. But the threat seems to be real, the solutions are difficult and uncertain.

But I haven't seen anyone mention apocalypse. Only a disaster. After we've all had it we either die from it or become immune to it. The world continues with the immunes.  This shouldn't last more than a few seasons. This is not going to be worse than a BOE.

But it would suck if it spreads.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on January 30, 2020, 07:04:40 PM
SH. I remember 10 years ago when I watched hurricanes forecast after hurricane forecast predict massive destruction only to fail. In the last few years, it has been the opposite. The catastrophe was predicted and they became true.


More than ever I hope you are right. But the threat seems to be real, the solutions are difficult and uncertain.

But I haven't seen anyone mention apocalypse. Only a disaster. After we've all had it we either die from it or become immune to it. The world continues with the immunes.  This shouldn't last more than a few seasons. This is not going to be worse than a BOE.

But it would suck if it spreads.

This part just made me think of "The Maze Runner" series.   8)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 07:12:06 PM
I have seen the flu statistics used to claim this is not a threat here and on open mind .
CDC estimates The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, From about 15,000,000 cases..
One death per 1800 infections.
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .
With a corresponding difference in the number of Intensive care admissions.

No one knows what the real situation with this virus is.

Don't panic!
Watch and act if it escalates in the west.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 30, 2020, 07:32:12 PM
Corona with a pinch of bird flu. https://www.todayonline.com/world/china-reports-new-h5n6-bird-flu-case-xinjiang-region?fbclid=IwAR1DK4Hb6j_jqTPeUbb8IIi7XhbhJG_UKb9ZzDqYQ-Jei6dZM4mJ4hwonws
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 30, 2020, 07:35:37 PM
So far virtually all infected have some connection to Wuhan. Wuhan is quarantined and people with symptoms and a connection to Wuhan closely monitored wherever they go.  I doubt this will become pandemic although everything is possible of course.

Few things to watch:
Local epidemics or lockouts in other major Chinese cities.
Sustained person to person infections outside China.
Another infection hotspot, especially if somewhere with poor health care
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: philopek on January 30, 2020, 07:43:48 PM
I have seen the flu statistics used to claim this is not a threat here and on open mind .
CDC estimates The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, From about 15,000,000 cases..
One death per 1800 infections.
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .
With a corresponding difference in the number of Intensive care admissions.


No one knows what the real situation with this virus is.

Don't panic!
Watch and act if it escalates in the west.

a good example how the correct numbers can be used and abused depending on bias.

what is important, the number of cases or the death rate ?

Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

further we dunno how many are infected with this one, could be several millions and we just dunno.

so beside the fact that there are too many unknowns to make a good statement, for me it's obvious that this is a blown story.

8000 cases even 80'000 cases or 800'000 cases are nothing as compared to other infections world wide, flu is just one of them, it's dozens of millions as compared to the few thousand here.

death rate we dunno yet because i assume that many are infected and sitting put at home and taking aspirin, preferring this over getting involved.

imagine this without media and then consider the mainstream media's motives "et voilà"

some members here are apparently bored and seek the hype and the kick. i suggest to watch and see and always compare current numbers to the larger scale. 10000 known cases out of 1.4Billion Chinese, and then out of 7.7 Billions world wide is less than almost any other cause of death we're aware of and then they're not even all dead but only 1-2% of the know cases are dead and in reality it's even less considering that many more than known are infected.

last but not least most dead were in not a perfect shape health wise, makes all the hype looking even more ridiculous.

"Qui Bono" is another question that comes to my mind and then it does not matter what color a sheep's fur has, sheep are sheep and are know to follow their incapable leaders over the cliff ;) ;)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 30, 2020, 07:51:44 PM
If it spreads across the planet it will kill 50 to 100 million people.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 30, 2020, 08:05:55 PM
Well put, philopek

How many people die because of air pollution in China? Yet they don’t declare lockouts or extend holidays to keep the coal plants closed.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 30, 2020, 08:14:28 PM
Quote
Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

are you seriously ignoring the proportions here? 1:1800 and 1:48 are two orders of magnitude apart ON top of that most flu cases don't even require professional medical care, they are easily resolved at home. This thing puts in the ICU 20% of the people that get it. Remove the ICU and the 2 orders of magnitude likely become 3.

Your threat assessment is way off. Sweet to hear and comfortable to the ears, but way off.

We don't stop the world for the common cold. We do for killer colds.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 30, 2020, 08:25:49 PM
ow many people die because of air pollution in China? Yet they don’t declare lockouts or extend holidays to keep the coal plants closed.

That is just attrition rate so not that interesting to a government developing a nation first.

This is different because it both spreads from people to people and has a considerable death rate.

I am mostly interested in the spread in the places we can reliably track it outside of China. So US and EU and if clusters pop up without obvious links to China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 08:26:34 PM
Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

False equivalence is a logical fallacy in which two incompatible arguments appear to be logically equivalent when in fact they are not.

This coronavirus first emerged into  humans only about one month ago .  Flu has been endemic in human populations for eons.  When the flu virus mutated into the strain called Spanish flu it killed 3 to 5 % of the human population in a single year.  The world is a lot smaller than it was in 1918.  Even in my remote corner of the world there are busloads of potential vectors less than a day from the epicenter of infection passing by only 7km from here.

Watch the numbers .....
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on January 30, 2020, 08:35:03 PM
Looking on the bright side......(?)

From the New York Times....

Virus Updates: U.S. Reports First Case of Human-to-Human Transmission

- The World Health Organization will meet again today to decide whether to declare the coronavirus epidemic an international public health emergency.

- Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the coronavirus outbreak could be good for the U.S., prompting employers to move jobs to America.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 30, 2020, 08:44:05 PM
And probably it will kill more than 50 to 100 million people if it spreads across the globe. If you look at just China. Airline after airline is cancelling it's flights to China. Sport and music events are cancelled already until March, April.... If that happens on a global scale. In a highly competitive economic environment. With zero interest rates and a fast growing pile of debt. You can be sure that there are billions of people out there with very little reserves. Banks will start to pile up bad loans. And people are going to get a lot more stress. And the virus kills people with a weak immune system. And that will be under attack from all that stress. That situation is like a giant buffet for that virus.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 30, 2020, 08:48:03 PM
Looking on the bright side......(?)
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.
If it breaks out it will kill off many climate denying boomers

 ;D

opps
 I am a male boomer .
 :-\
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 30, 2020, 08:58:42 PM
For the climate it would be good. Starbucks closed half of all it's shops in China, so they don't need to be supplied. Far less traffic on the roads. Many factories are closed. So they will need a couple million barrels of oil less every day.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 09:08:38 PM
Looking on the bright side......(?)
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.
If it breaks out it will kill off many climate denying boomers

 ;D

opps
 I am a male boomer .
 :-\
So am I, KiwiGriff (61 going on 62).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2020, 09:08:58 PM
WHO Declares Global Emergency But Stresses Confidence in China
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-death-toll-wuhan-evacuation-foreign-nationals-citizens-latest-news

The WHO have declared a public health emergency because of the spread of the virus outside of China, describing it as an “unprecedented outbreak”.

The total number of cases outside of China has reached 98 across 18 countries, Tedros Adhanom, the director general of WHO, told a press conference.

Eight cases outside China have spread via human to human contact, in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the US.

... The United States announced its first human-to-human transmission case on Thursday just prior to the WHO’s announcement, following the positive diagnosis of a Chicago resident who contracted the illness from his wife.

In another case confirmed earlier this week, a 33-year-old German man was infected with the disease by a colleague visiting from China. That colleague was reported to have shown no symptoms at the time of transmission.

-----------------------------

Here are the latest figures on the virus:

Globally, there are 7,818 confirmed cases.

Of these, 7,736 are in China. In the country, 1,370 cases have been classed as severe, and there are a further 12,167 suspected cases. The number of official deaths, 170, hasn’t changed since last night.

Outside of China, there are 82 confirmed cases spanning 18 countries.

------------------------------

Hong Kong figures are slightly higher

Globally confirmed = 8261
Mainland China = 8140
Dead = 171

-----------------

Looking on the bright side?

- Betcha we'll meet the Paris Accord CO2 Emission Targets this year  :)

- Housing will become 'more affordable'
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 30, 2020, 09:09:19 PM
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.

The pattern is interesting. We have to wait and see if it holds.
Flu is also a problem for pregnant women but they did not feature so far.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 09:10:56 PM
For the climate it would be good. Starbucks closed half of all it's shops in China, so they don't need to be supplied. Far less traffic on the roads. Many factories are closed. So they will need a couple million barrels of oil less every day.
And as the economy collapses the aerosol dimming goes down (unless it's bad enough a shock to start a nuclear war).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 30, 2020, 09:14:45 PM
WHO Declares Coronavirus Outbreak A 'Global Pandemic'
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-who-reveals-decision-coronavirus-pandemic-status
Quote
After a brief delay, the WHO is finally ready to hold a press conference to discuss the outcome of its third straight emergency session.
A few hours ago, the CDC confirmed the first case of human-to-human transmission in the US, bringing the total number of countries that have recorded human-to-human cases to four (Germany, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and the US).
The WHO is now widely expected to label the nCoV breakout a global pandemic, potentially triggering another leg lower in stocks.
The press conference which will take place in Geneva, Switzerland, where the organization is based, will be led by Director-General Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus. Many suspect that he will finally acquiesce to labeling the nCoV outbreak a ' Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).'
WHO twice decided against embracing the label last week.

Sorry for the quote edit, I thought the earlier quote was the end of the article (stupid ads).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 30, 2020, 09:52:26 PM
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.

The pattern is interesting. We have to wait and see if it holds.
Flu is also a problem for pregnant women but they did not feature so far.
I wonder if biases such as smoking have been removed from the data? These studies are obviously being done in hurry.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 30, 2020, 10:15:37 PM
Co-Chief Investment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, Ray "Dumb shit" Dalio, prognosticates about the effect of 2019-nCoV on the financial markets for the benefit of his investors:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronavirus-pandemics-ray-dalio/

Quote
As for the spreading of this virus, as with any sort of unknown, there are 1) actual events and 2) the expectations of events that get reflected in market pricing.  Generally speaking these once-in-a-lifetime big bad things initially are under-worried about and continue to progress until they become over-worried about, until the fundamentals for the reversal happen (e.g., the virus switches from accelerating to diminishing). So we want to pay attention to what’s actually happening, what people believe is happening that is reflected in pricing (relative to what’s likely), and what indicators that will indicate the reversal.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on January 30, 2020, 11:35:16 PM
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .

Sam has stressed that this is a dangerous relationship to rely on. The 171 deaths may predominately come from cases that were confirmed a few days ago.

25th January Hubei has 52 deaths and 1052 confirmed cases 4.9%
29th January Hubei has 90 deaths and 4586 confirmed cases 2.0%

This rapid change (factor almost 2.5) should give pause for thought.

If there is on average a 4 day delay between case being confirmed and death then it might be more appropriate to calculate 90 / 1052 which gives 8.6%. 4 days might be too much or too little of an adjustment.

OTOH mild cases never confirmed will mean actual death rate will be lower per actual infection compared to rate per confirmed infection.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on January 31, 2020, 12:07:27 AM
This is the big one.  Case fatality rate is anywhere from 2-10% and number infected right now is around 100,000.  Very few regions will keep this out.  I'm going fishing, good luck.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on January 31, 2020, 12:15:15 AM
The official web site for the local government (http://www.hubei.gov.cn/) is quite readable even using your favourite translator.

They update the numbers daily, some of which never make it to other reports (the WHO situation reports seem to sum up patients in severe and critical condition and call them "severe").

The latest update on the Hubei web site:
32340 under observation
5806 confirmed cases
804 severely ill
290 critically ill
204 deaths
116 released patients

I got stuck browsing that website, a lot of information and an insight in how the local government is handling the situation. One of the news on the site today was that a science team has sequenced the entire genome of the virus. The go-ahead to start research was given on jan 10. So they set up a high-security lab, manned it, isolated the virus and mapped the whole genome in about 3 weeks. Quite impressive I would say.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 12:39:32 AM
From The Guardian ...

Here are the latest figures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-death-toll-wuhan-evacuation-foreign-nationals-citizens-latest-news

The virus has spread to at least 9,320 people around the world.

212 people have died, all in China, meaning that the death toll has surpassed that of the Sars epidemic over a year long period (2002-2003).

There are 98 confirmed cases of infection outside mainland China in at least 18 countries.

--------------------------

From South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) ...

Global Confirmed = 9480
Mainland China = 9356   
Dead = 213
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 31, 2020, 01:34:33 AM
Today's first numbers from China.

截至 2020-01-30 16:09 全国数据统计
数据说明
  9,720 确诊病例
15,238 疑似病例
    213 死亡人数
    171 治愈人数

As of 2020-01-30 16:09 National Statistics
Data description
  9,720 Confirmed cases
15,238 Suspected Cases
     213 Deaths
     171 Number of Cures
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on January 31, 2020, 01:37:07 AM
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .

Sam has stressed that this is a dangerous relationship to rely on. The 171 deaths may predominately come from cases that were confirmed a few days ago.

25th January Hubei has 52 deaths and 1052 confirmed cases 4.9%
29th January Hubei has 90 deaths and 4586 confirmed cases 2.0%

This rapid change (factor almost 2.5) should give pause for thought.

If there is on average a 4 day delay between case being confirmed and death then it might be more appropriate to calculate 90 / 1052 which gives 8.6%. 4 days might be too much or too little of an adjustment.

OTOH mild cases never confirmed will mean actual death rate will be lower per actual infection compared to rate per confirmed infection.

The latest paper suggests that the appropriate delay (admission to death) is a little over 5 days indicating a ~12% case fatality rate.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2020, 02:40:06 AM
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO...
Quote
Jesper olsen (@Jesper_M_Olsen) 1/30/20, 3:24 PM

this is the sixth time that the WHO uses its large alarm button:

2009: H1N1

2014: Ebola

2014: Polio

2015: Zika

2018: Ebola

2020: Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
https://twitter.com/jesper_m_olsen/status/1222978836192800774
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 03:26:01 AM
My friend in Toastmasters heard from my Chinese friend that the part of her family back in China is still OK.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 06:25:31 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/31/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-death-toll-who-global-health-emergency-latest-news

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPkYJbSUYAEQ0OX?format=png&name=large)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPkYJbHUUAA0v2Q?format=png&name=large)

https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223035330736996353

Charts show daily figures of confirmed cases of novel #coronavirus in Hubei Province and all of China. Hubei reported 1220 new cases and 42 deaths on Thursday compared with 1982 new cases and 43 deaths nationwide.

---------------------------

Are Americans Safe From the Coronavirus?

.... In only 3 years, Trump has eliminated the office of pandemic response, drastically scaled back the CDC’s overseas outbreak prevention efforts & discontinued a surveillance program meant to detect new viral threats.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/coronavirus-outbreak.html

https://mobile.twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1223079421416001539

... If it takes root here it will fall hardest on the working poor, who don’t get paid if they don’t show up and/or fear losing their jobs if they don’t go to work. The lack of paid sick leave policies is a danger to all of us.

----------------------

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/5da8645f65eddc9c66e9dafd5e2acf7a77da05fb/0_245_6048_3627/master/6048.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=092cdde2ded0e760008982663be74056)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/a-man-lies-dead-in-the-street-the-image-that-captures-the-wuhan-coronavirus-crisis

It is an image that captures the chilling reality of the coronavirus outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan: a grey-haired man wearing a face mask lies dead on the pavement, a plastic shopping bag in one hand, as police and medical staff in full protective suits and masks prepare to take him away.

On what would typically be a crowded street in Wuhan, an industrial city of 11 million people under quarantine, there are only a few passersby – but they dare not go near him.

Journalists from Agence France-Presse saw the body on Thursday morning, not long before a vehicle arrived carrying emergency workers.

---------------------

China Coronavirus: African Nations Quarantine Symptomatic Passengers from China but No Cases Confirmed
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048310/china-coronavirus-african-nations-quarantine-symptomatic-passengers

A patient under medical observation in Ivory Coast has tested negative, health officials say

In Sudan, health minister Akram Ali Altoum announced that two of its citizens were being examined after displaying symptoms following a visit to Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. “We received two suspected cases who came from China through Cairo and Addis Ababa,” Altoum said, adding that infections had not been confirmed.

... Lack of equipped medical labs and kits raises fears that many African countries may not have the capacity to detect and handle the virus.

--------------------------

A second case of the virus has been confirmed in Queensland, bringing Australia’s total number of cases to nine.

A Chinese man with coronavirus boarded a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast on 27 January, and Australian authorities have confirmed that a second passenger on the flight has tested positive for the virus.

Authorities are now attempting to track down the other passengers on the flight - 170 people, excluding the two confirmed cases.


-------------------------

Movie 'Contagion' Goes Viral
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/jan/30/what-can-we-learn-about-coronavirus-from-watching-contagion

... There is no word yet on how the growing audience for Contagion is divided among countries or continents, but it must be the case that viewers have been watching it as a sort of “how to” guide in the event of a catastrophe in their vicinity. Or at least a “what to” – what to expect when you’re expecting an pandemic.

https://youtu.be/4sYSyuuLk5g

---------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 31, 2020, 06:56:10 AM
Up date 1630 zulu.
9776 confirmed.
213 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Please don't get me wrong.
I do not think these numbers are 100% reliable
What I do think is they give a good approximation over time of the progress of the epidemic.
We can make arguments that the number of infections  are massively underrepresented and the death rate is lower
Or  as others have done make claims it is higher
My point was it is considerably  more dangerous than the common flu.

Again watch the numbers.
Read all our  contributions on here and create your own  informed opinion of what is happening.
You will be as or better informed than anyone reading just the MSM .


Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 31, 2020, 07:03:17 AM
Quote
Lack of equipped medical labs and kits raises fears that many African countries may not have the capacity to detect and handle the virus.
My concern is India at present.
Only 1 case reported. I find that hard to believe.
If it gets into  a densely populated city like Mumbai with an unprepared population it will create havoc .
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 07:35:53 AM
China’s getting a lot more isolated from the world this week
https://qz.com/1793858/wuhan-virus-borders-closed-airlines-cancel-china-flights/
Quote
The US and Britain have issued travel warnings for China in light of the outbreak. Globally, more than a dozen airlines have suspended routes to mainland China. United Airlines cited a “significant decline in demand” for its move—China has quarantined over a dozen cities and barred overseas travel by tour groups. While some have cut flights for two weeks, in some cases the suspensions stretch until April.

U.S. warns citizens against travel to China as virus toll tops 200
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/us-warns-citizens-against-travel-to-china-as-virus-toll-tops-200-idUSKBN1ZT374
Quote
In a new travel advisory, the State Department raised its warning for China to the same level as Afghanistan and Iraq, saying on its website, “Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 31, 2020, 10:27:37 AM

People's daily
8 hours ago from Weibo video Edited
[ #New pneumonia death mainly in the senior population # ] Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with CCTV: The new type of coronavirus pneumonia is not as severe as imagined. An important indicator of our measurement of this disease is mortality. From the analysis of more than 7,000 confirmed patients across the country, we see that people under the age of 30 have basically not died. Then the mortality rate of people aged 40 to 59 is only 0.2%, and the death mainly occurs in the elderly (population). Weibo video from People's Daily
o
https://m.weibo.cn/status/4466726898641560?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 31, 2020, 10:31:02 AM
Another thing that can be done is partial herd immunity through vitamin C.

Vitamin C and Immune Function.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29099763

Quote
Vitamin C is an essential micronutrient for humans, with pleiotropic functions related to its ability to donate electrons. It is a potent antioxidant and a cofactor for a family of biosynthetic and gene regulatory enzymes. Vitamin C contributes to immune defense by supporting various cellular functions of both the innate and adaptive immune system. Vitamin C supports epithelial barrier function against pathogens and promotes the oxidant scavenging activity of the skin, thereby potentially protecting against environmental oxidative stress. Vitamin C accumulates in phagocytic cells, such as neutrophils, and can enhance chemotaxis, phagocytosis, generation of reactive oxygen species, and ultimately microbial killing. It is also needed for apoptosis and clearance of the spent neutrophils from sites of infection by macrophages, thereby decreasing necrosis/NETosis and potential tissue damage. The role of vitamin C in lymphocytes is less clear, but it has been shown to enhance differentiation and proliferation of B- and T-cells, likely due to its gene regulating effects. Vitamin C deficiency results in impaired immunity and higher susceptibility to infections. In turn, infections significantly impact on vitamin C levels due to enhanced inflammation and metabolic requirements. Furthermore, supplementation with vitamin C appears to be able to both prevent and treat respiratory and systemic infections. Prophylactic prevention of infection requires dietary vitamin C intakes that provide at least adequate, if not saturating plasma levels (i.e., 100-200 mg/day), which optimize cell and tissue levels. In contrast, treatment of established infections requires significantly higher (gram) doses of the vitamin to compensate for the increased inflammatory response and metabolic demand.

If everyone takes vitamin C then everyone will have a temporarily stronger immune system, be more resistant to infection, be able to better fight off infection and by virtue of less viral load and less time with the virus, spread the infection less granting herd immunity.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on January 31, 2020, 11:06:09 AM
Two coronavirus cases confirmed in UK

Two people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, the chief medical officer for England has announced.

They are both members of the same family and are receiving specialist NHS care.

No more details are being released about their identity or where they are being treated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51325192
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 11:24:14 AM
The latest from my favorite doomer:

Exponential Growth Rate: The Number Of Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is 236 Times Higher Than It Was 2 Weeks Ago
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/exponential-growth-rate-the-number-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-is-236-times-higher-than-it-was-2-weeks-ago
Quote
When push comes to shove, most people would be willing to do just about anything to stay alive.
And once people start dropping dead from this virus in major cities all over the nation, the desperation will be off the charts.
So let us pray that this pandemic is brought to an end somehow.When push comes to shove, most people would be willing to do just about anything to stay alive.
And once people start dropping dead from this virus in major cities all over the nation, the desperation will be off the charts.
So let us pray that this pandemic is brought to an end somehow.
Unfortunately, right now the number of cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and the outlook for the months ahead is becoming increasingly grim.
Unfortunately, right now the number of cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and the outlook for the months ahead is becoming increasingly grim.
and:
The True Number Of Coronavirus Victims Is Far Larger Than You Are Being Told
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-true-number-of-coronavirus-victims-is-far-larger-than-you-are-being-told
Quote
Ultimately, we really do not know how many coronavirus victims there are in China right now.  As I discussed yesterday, researchers at the University of Hong Kong are estimating that there could be 44,000 victims at this point, but they have no way of knowing for sure.
But what we do know is that this pandemic is getting worse with each passing day.  Even if you just look at the official numbers, they are growing at an exponential rate.  Mysterious pandemics are one element of “the perfect storm” that we have been anticipating, and it looks like this current pandemic is only going to intensify in the months ahead.
And the more this pandemic grows, the more fear we are going to see.  Large numbers of people are going to be desperately afraid of getting sick and dying, and that has the potential to paralyze our society to an extent that we have never seen before.

You know, I was going to stock up on nonperishable food (as much as I can) tomorrow, but I think I will do it today. I don't know when some news flash will cause panic buying. Johnny Carson once told a joke and the next day there was a nationwide toilet paper shortage.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 31, 2020, 11:47:08 AM
Judging by the graphs in the latest vox_mundi update, the quarantine had a positive effect. In a few days, we will know if it is contained. I think this will work.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on January 31, 2020, 11:54:46 AM
The number of hospital beds in the US is under a million. There were nearly a million hospitalized cases of flu in the 2017-'18 season.

In general, based on such stats and from what I hear from healthcare professionals, we're already stretched to the max, and any significant further pressure will overwhelm the system.

That is no doubt even more true of some other places around the world that are now seeing their first cases arrive on their shores.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on January 31, 2020, 12:08:07 PM
Based on reports from China, majority of urban population has stayed in their homes for about one week now. The only known infection hotspot, Wuhan, is quarantined. Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 31, 2020, 12:14:26 PM
Quote
Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus.

+1
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 12:57:46 PM
Latest from second favorite doomer:

The W.H.O. Just Prioritized Money Over Human Life
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-w-h-o-just-prioritized-money-over-human-life/
Quote
Today the World Health Organization (W.H.O.) declared that the Wuhan coronavirus is indeed now a pandemic.
Scary news, right?
Well…not if you kept listening. The W.H.O. then proceeded to downplay the risk to public health and took pains to make it clear it doesn’t recommend placing restrictions on global trade & travel at this time.
What?!? When we may be in dealing with a viral outbreak as (or more!) virulent than the Spanish Flu? (aka The Great Influenza)
Folks, this is nothing less than a political decision to keep business/commerce flowing without regard to public health. The W.H.O. has chosen money over people’s lives:
Also in the news today: science journal The Lancet just released a study that finds initial evidence that men are substantially more vulnerable to coronaviruses than women.
Why? Watch the video below. Chris Martenson walks through the science behind the findings:
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on January 31, 2020, 01:49:11 PM
Pretty close to 10,000 world wide by now. 9,809 confirmed cases in China alone.  https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-updates-latest-news-outbreak-global-response-n1127226

From NYT:

How Bad Will the Coronavirus Outbreak Get?

Here Are 6 Key Factors
Quote

•    How contagious is the virus?
    It seems moderately infectious, similar to SARS.

•    How deadly is the virus?
    It’s hard to know yet. But the mortality rate is probably less than 3 percent, much less than SARS.

•    How long does it take to show symptoms?
    Possibly between 2 to 14 days, allowing the illness to go undetected.

•    How much have infected people traveled?
    The virus spread quickly because it started in a transportation hub.

•    How effective will the response be?
    The W.H.O. has praised China’s efforts, but critics fear lockdown measures may not be enough.

•    How long will it take to develop a vaccine?
    A vaccine is still a year away — at minimum.

It seems to me, they missed another crucial factor here (at least one): How contagious are people before they are symptomatic, and for how long?

So we have a clear answer on this? As I recall, some Chinese authorities are saying it is contagious before symptoms emerge, but non-Chinese experts seem to be dubious.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2020, 02:00:55 PM
I'm In China. Here's What's Really Happening As The Country Faces The Coronavirus.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/wuhan-coronavirus-china-experience_n_5e32ed53c5b69a19a4ab3a04
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 31, 2020, 02:13:32 PM
Fact. Paralyzing all trade and travel will stop nCoronavirus from spreading. If the trade is held for a month the threat will be over one way or the other.

Fact.  Paralyzing all trade and travel will starve millions to death.


This is not a choice. Travel and trade must continue while they can. Local quarantine is needed only because the break out already started.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on January 31, 2020, 02:30:51 PM
Good reporting by the NYT in that article. They make the important caveats needed for the sars vs ncoronavirus comparison.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tigertown on January 31, 2020, 04:55:46 PM
Your own immune system will kill the virus. The problem is to get past the lipid coating. One simple trick is to get something in your body to compromise the viral lipid coating. I have been reading for years about MCT's and one substance found in coconut oil as well as milk. It is monolaurin, which the coating readily absorbs, trying to increase its protection, but resulting in the coating's destruction. Your immune system then attacks the actual virus. I have gotten this to work against the basic flu, but obviously have not had the new virus.

In the words of someone smarter than me,
 "While Monolaurin is most widely used as an anti-viral agent, it
also has beneficial effects against pathogenic bacteria, yeasts
and fungi; other fatty acids such as caprylic and sorbic acids are
more effective against yeasts, but ineffective against viruses.
In a study performed at the CDC, which focused on Monolaurin tested
strains of viruses, Monolaurin was able to solubulize the
enveloped membrane of 14 human RNA and DNA viruses (3).
These include influenza, RSV, Rubeola, Newcastle’s, Coronavirus,
Herpes Simplex types 1 & 2, Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV)
and cytomegalovirus. (Monolaurin has no effect on
naked viruses, such as polio, encephalitis virus, coxsachie, or pox
viruses.) Monolaurin works by disintegrating the lipid
envelope coat of viruses. Data from these studies suggest that the
loss of virus infectivity is associated with the solubilization
of Monolaurin into the envelope. The virus absorbs the fatty acid
for its own replication, but winds up destroying its own protective
coat.  "

The big problem with monolaurin is that it is available at a very low price and big pharmacy has no motive to promote it, though many agencies and clinics such as the Mayo clinic are aware of it.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 31, 2020, 06:26:10 PM
Chinese New Year is a very important market for worldwide sales of seafood to China. Local prices to fishermen for rock lobster have locally dropped by about half to $10.50lb . Lobster are shipped live and canceling the holiday celebration has undoubtably left importers holding large supplies. Lobster and Dungeness  crab are seasonal fisheries and so a price drop and demand destruction will hurt local fishermen. Aquaculture is also affected but aquaculture can hold off processing and still sell their fish when conditions improve. Wild caught fisheries lose their season , Calif. Dungeness crab was already operating on a truncated season because whale entanglement issues in Monterey Bay and low meat to shell ratios.
 https://www.intrafish.com/markets/live-updates-chinas-coronavirus-chaos-sucks-in-salmon-shrimp-lobster/2-1-746616
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 31, 2020, 06:29:55 PM


... If it takes root here it will fall hardest on the working poor, who don’t get paid if they don’t show up and/or fear losing their jobs if they don’t go to work. The lack of paid sick leave policies is a danger to all of us.


If I were a cook or cleaning person for the wealthy in DC and thought I might be sick, I'd start smearing phlegm and nasal secretions on surfaces all over the house.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 31, 2020, 06:36:26 PM
The number of hospital beds in the US is under a million. There were nearly a million hospitalized cases of flu in the 2017-'18 season.

In general, based on such stats and from what I hear from healthcare professionals, we're already stretched to the max, and any significant further pressure will overwhelm the system.

That is no doubt even more true of some other places around the world that are now seeing their first cases arrive on their shores.

There are 6 confirmed cases in the U.S. We all need to take a deep breath.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on January 31, 2020, 06:55:14 PM
We all need to take a deep breath.

;)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 31, 2020, 07:33:55 PM
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Coronavirus-Halts-Flow-Of-Latin-American-Oil-To-China.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 08:40:44 PM


... If it takes root here it will fall hardest on the working poor, who don’t get paid if they don’t show up and/or fear losing their jobs if they don’t go to work. The lack of paid sick leave policies is a danger to all of us.


If I were a cook or cleaning person for the wealthy in DC and thought I might be sick, I'd start smearing phlegm and nasal secretions on surfaces all over the house.
Couldn't agree more. An excellent 'cure' for hyperpartisanship

https://youtu.be/8fgub5zkBVk

Remember; don't forget the doorknobs!
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on January 31, 2020, 09:05:25 PM
The local government in Wuhan even arrested 8 people because they informed other people what was going on. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/diary-wuhan-native-week-coronavirus-quarantine-200131045152448.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on January 31, 2020, 09:06:54 PM
Up date 900 Zulu.
9925  cases.
213 deaths..

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 09:15:43 PM
US Underprepared for Coronavirus Due to Trump Cuts, say Health Experts
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/us-coronavirus-budget-cuts-trump-underprepared

US preparedness to deal with the threat of coronavirus has been hampered by the personnel and budget cuts made by the Trump administration over the past three years, according to health experts.

... “You have to at least now be anticipating and responsibly planning against a sort of pandemic level scenario reaching the US,” Jeremy Konyndyk, who ran foreign disaster assistance in the Obama administration, said.

“The fact that they explicitly dismantled the pandemic office in the White House that was tasked with preparing for exactly this kind of a risk is hugely concerning,” said Konyndyk, now a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development. “Both the structure and all the institutional memory is gone now.”

Funding has also been cut drastically to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), forcing it to reduce or discontinue epidemic-prevention efforts in 39 out of the 49 countries it had been helping. Among the countries where CDC efforts were scaled back were Haiti, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo as well as China, where the agency provided technical assistance.

In its 2020 budget the Trump administration proposed a further 10% cut in CDC funding, equivalent to $750m. It zeroed out funding for epidemiology and laboratory capacity at state and local levels.

Funding will also dry up this year for a tiered epidemic response within the US. The system was set up in the aftermath of the Ebola scare, and involved identifying patients infected by “special pathogens” in frontline hospitals and their transfer up a chain of specially equipped regional hospitals where they could be safely treated.

After this year’s cuts, 10 advanced treatment facilities will still receive funding, but not the 60 other treatment centres one tier below.

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-vgoDgkbhif8/Xih5moK47rI/AAAAAAACRNA/vydxGA7IKvIft7zPodItW69SN1h208zJgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/From%2BClipboard.jpg)

------------------------------

Trump Administration Temporarily Barring Foreigners Who Visited China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html#link-20802680

President Trump has temporarily suspended entry into the United States for any foreign nationals who have traveled to China, the administration announced on Friday.

The action will restrict all foreign nationals who have been to China — other than immediate family of American citizens and permanent residents  — from entering the United States.

Beginning on Feb. 2, any United States citizen returning home who has been in the Hubei province of China within the past 14 days will be quarantined for up to 14 days, administration officials said. Those who have been to other parts of China within the past 14 days will be subject to “proactive entry screening” and up to 14 days of monitoring and self quarantine.

The United States will also funnel all flights from China to just a few airports, including Kennedy Airport, Chicago’s O’Hare and San Francisco International Airport.

The State Department on Thursday night issued a travel advisory telling Americans not to travel to China because of the public health threat posed by the dangerous new coronavirus. The department set the new advisory at Level 4, or red — its highest alert, reserved for the most perilous situations (like North Korea or Yemen).

(https://images.dailykos.com/images/760016/large/toles-thecoronationvirus.gif?1579955091)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 09:30:16 PM
First Case of Coronavirus Confirmed in Sweden
https://www.thelocal.se/20200131/first-case-of-coronavirus-confirmed-in-jonkoping-sweden

A patient at the Ryhov county hospital in Jönköping, central-southern Sweden, has tested positive for the coronavirus, the Public Health Agency of Sweden (Folkhälsomyndigheten) confirmed to the website.

The patient is a woman who landed in Sweden on 24 January after visiting the Wuhan area in China. At that point she had no symptoms, said the agency.

But she later developed a cough and contacted the health services in Jönköping.

--------------------------------

US Announces 14-day Quarantine on 195 Virus Evacuees
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-day-quarantine-virus-evacuees.html

The US on Friday issue a rare federal quarantine order of 14 days for 195 Americans who were evacuated from the Chinese city at the center of a global virus epidemic that has killed more than 200 people.

It is the first time in 50 years the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued such an order, and the two-week period began the day they left Wuhan, said senior CDC official Nancy Messonnier.

The latest move came after one individual tried to leave the base and was placed under quarantine by the state of California, said a second CDC official, Marty Citron, but he denied that that event had been the impetus.

"The last time that quarantine was used for a suspect case was in the 1960s for smallpox evaluation"

----------------------

Lawmaker, local factory team for reusable, antibacterial masks, though efficacy against viruses unknown
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048481/coronavirus-lawmaker-local-factory-team-reusable

Hong Kong’s textile industry could start making and selling reusable surgical masks using an antibacterial fabric within 10 days amid the city’s ongoing shortage, a lawmaker for the sector said on Friday.

Textile and garment industry legislator Felix Chung Kwok-pan told an RTHK radio programme he was working with a local manufacturer to make reusable face masks out of a fabric previously developed by researchers at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, which cautioned the fabric has not yet been proven to prevent viruses.

“The government has said that 30 million masks are on the way, but the problem is these masks need to be thrown out after eight hours of use. If everyone in the city needs a mask, that's 200 million a month,” the Liberal Party leader said.

“If the virus continues for months, supply will never be stable.”

--------------------------------

China Goes Global in Search for Protective Suits, Masks and Goggles as Coronavirus Infections Begin To Take Off
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048379/china-goes-global-search-protective-suits-masks-and-goggles

In Beijing, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology estimated that Hubei was in need of 100,000 pieces of protective clothing and equipment every day, but that the country’s 40 manufacturers could only produce 30,000 items a day.

Unicef, South Korea, Japan and Chinese embassies are sourcing and shipping more, while Taiwan says it must focus on its own needs

------------------------------------

India’s Homeopathic ‘Cure’ for Coronavirus ‘Immature and Irresponsible’
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3048398/indias-homeopathic-cure-coronavirus-immature-and

The Indian Medical Association has assailed the Indian ministry that promotes traditional healing for peddling “immature and irresponsible” homeopathic remedies to prevent infections of the novel coronavirus.

As India reported its first case of coronavirus this week and China and other nations accelerated efforts to stop the spread of the outbreak, New Delhi’s Ministry of Ayurveda, Yoga & Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha, Sowa Rigpa and Homoeopathy (AYUSH) on Wednesday publicised its recommended cure for the disease: homeopathic treatments and other alternative medicines.

Along with generic recommendations and personal hygiene tips, the communique advised that patients ingest various herbal concoctions to “strengthen the immune system” and other traditional medicines “useful in [the] symptomatic management of coronavirus infection”.

... “Why do the systems of medicines which do not even recognise microbes as disease-causing agents… [say] they can treat the coronavirus?”

... Asked about the possible side-effects of the recommended treatment for the coronavirus – a highly diluted solution of arsenic trioxide used by homoeopaths that has in the past resulted in arsenic poisoning due to negligence – Joshi said the suggested quantity would not have serious consequences.

The fortunate part about homoeopathy is, one need not worry much about the type of virus,” Joshi claimed. “Through the generalised symptoms of all the patients, we’ll be able to find an effective remedy” for any virus that can be used as “a preventive medication for all the population”.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on January 31, 2020, 09:44:53 PM
Just a random thought ...

With the list of airlines (over 20) that have suspended flights to China growing daily and the likelihood of this occurring globally in the months ahead; this would be a good time to get some quantitative correlation data in regards to 'global dimming'

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox/factbox-airlines-suspend-china-flights-over-coronavirus-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048417/coronavirus-global-travel-restrictions-imposed-chinese
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/may/11/global-dimming-pollution

This may add 0.1-0.5°C by this summer (in the NH)

Just a thought.  :)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bernard on January 31, 2020, 10:37:27 PM
Looking at the figures published by John Hopkins CSSE at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As I write, 204 out of 213 deaths took place in Hubei province, with 5806 confirmed cases out of 9925.
So, in the province, where the epidemy started the mortality is over 3%.

The second province in number of confirmed cases is Zheijang with 538 cases, but not a single death yet. How do you folks interpret this?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on January 31, 2020, 10:45:11 PM
Some ideas: Either the virus is not as violent when transferred person to person as opposed to the initial contagion (implausible), or not enough time has passed to generate casualties, or the medical treatment was prompt, or the actual number of cases in Hubei was much higher than reported (with mild cases unreported).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 31, 2020, 10:50:36 PM
US Declares Public Health Emergency, Travelers Returning From Hubei To Be Quarantined
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/watch-white-house-holds-coronavirus-public-briefing
Quote
Anyone who expected Trump's task force to give algos the all clear to BTFD, will be disappointed because moments ago Trump's coronavirus tzar, Azar said the US is declaring a public health emergency, US citizens returning from Hubei will be quarantined for 14 days and all flights coming from China will be funneled to 7 airports:

I know Zerohedge is supposed to be unreliable, but this kind of news seems hard to fake.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 01, 2020, 12:12:01 AM
Mainland China outside Hubei 3977 confirmed cases 9 deaths. So it isn't just Zhejiang but all provinces other than Hubei.

Going back to 26 Jan Hubei had 76 deaths and 1423 confirmed cases. Rest of mainland China 4 deaths from 927 confirmed cases. So it isn't recent. Only 5 deaths while confirmed cases increase by 3050 from 927 to 3977 is I think to be expected: If well enough to travel, milder and it probably takes more time before death.

Ability to test wouldn't be available until well after virus identified. Testing probably started close to same time everywhere which leaves less of a time gap between virus arrival in other provinces and testing starting. Hubei ability to test sufficiently also likely strained. So I think it likely there are many more actual infections to confirmed cases in Hubei than elsewhere.

So a number a factors:
Time before death
If well enough to travel, perhaps milder infection more likely and longer before death
Hubei more undercounted in number of confirmed cases
Medical facilities available and consequent quality of treatment

With these explanations, I am not sure if we need extra possible explanations like virus mutated to be less deadly and more transmissible which might be sensible evolution for the virus.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 12:12:30 AM
China virus death toll rises to 258
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/31/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-death-toll-who-global-health-emergency-latest-news

The number of confirmed deaths from China’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to 258, as authorities in hardest-hit Hubei province reported 45 new fatalities, AFP reports.

In its daily update, the provincial health commission also said newly confirmed cases of infection in Hubei continued to grow at a steady pace, with 1,347.

That puts the national total over 11,000, based on numbers previously issued by the central government.

---------------------

Coronavirus: Canada Reports Fourth Case, a Patient Who Tested Negative at First
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3048506/coronavirus-outbreak-canada-gets-chinas-nod

The female university student in her 20s arrived in Toronto on January 23 from Wuhan, China, the epicentre of the outbreak. Initially asymptomatic, she reported to hospital the next day, where she initially tested negative. A second test at Canada’s National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg, Manitoba, confirmed the case as positive.

“It is clear that we are learning more and more about the coronavirus each day, and our testing procedures are evolving and getting more and more precise,” Ontario’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr David Williams said in a statement after a news conference in Toronto.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 01, 2020, 01:02:33 AM
Looking at the figures published by John Hopkins CSSE at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

As I write, 204 out of 213 deaths took place in Hubei province, with 5806 confirmed cases out of 9925.
So, in the province, where the epidemy started the mortality is over 3%.

The second province in number of confirmed cases is Zheijang with 538 cases, but not a single death yet. How do you folks interpret this?

One of the difficulties with a fast moving virus like this is that the numbers can be very confusing until you remember that it is behaving mostly as an exponential growth curve and that there are time delays involved. Also, the parameters involved have ranges, and specific conditions in different areas can either mask the numbers, or make them look worse, or distort them in other ways.

Over time as various control strategies are employed, as people do various things, the basic parameters will or at least can change values. If the virus mutates, that can also have a large impact - though, so far that is not the case here.

More than this, non-obvious things like differences in age distributions, gender ratios, health status, other life style and disease factors (smoking, diabetes, ...) come into play and can have large importance.

Do not take any of what follows as correct, true, or valid for predicting anything. These are crude numbers and a very simple model to get a ballpark idea of what is happening, and to help answer Bernard's question - (tryin to make sense of the numbers).

Taking all of that, plus inherent randomness and other factors into account - the disease outbreak looks to be something like this:

1) The virus is spreading person to person.
2) The "average" contact transmission (R0) seems to be between 2 and 6 people infected by each person with the disease. The average R0 seems to be generally between 2.2 and 5.6 with an average from all of the available data of somewhere near 2.7
3) The growth of the number of people infected as reflected by "confirmed" infections was initially growing at about a factor of 1.32 per day. More recently it has averaged about 1.62 per day. Through the whole period factors in the range of 1.32 to 1.62 can reasonably match various parts of the data. Let's use a midpoint value of 1.42 (because it shows up a lot - but then too, so do 1.57 and 1.62).
4) Using that daily growth ratio and the R0, we can estimate the time from exposure to infectivity of the next generation - i.e. the generation time. Do that by taking the natural log of the R0 and dividing by the natural log of the growth factor - so ln(2.7)/ln(1.42) for example. In this case, that equals 2.83 days. That seems awfully fast. But then too, this is an "average" or more properly an equivalent behavior as the real distributions show. Another common pairing seems to be an R0 of 4.08 and a growth of 1.62 => 2.91 days per generation.

That now sets the basic form for the growth of the infected population. Even minor changes in those parameters can cause wild changes in the results. Do not rely on the results. They are cautions only. This is an exponential growth curve. So the trick then for this very simple (overly simple) model is to use the real data and various choices of parameters to best fit the parameters to the data, while also sanity checking that those make any sense. Even then, take the results with a huge dose of skepticism. This is an overly simple model.

Now, we have the basics, an Ro =2.7, A growth factor of 1.42/day, and a generation time of 2.83 days.

Next let's look at what we know from field reports. People apparently show symptoms about 5-7 days after exposure. Lets say that on average they go to hospital then. They get counted as "suspect cases". Over the next day, they are tested by PCR and the results return. They are either now cleared of having this virus, or they are confirmed. Given the size of the outbreak in Wuhan (Hubei), the vast majority of those are confirmed.

The confirmed population then is one day after the suspect count. I.e. it represents a population 1 day earlier in the growth and spread of the virus.

Next lets look at the people who died. We know hospitalizations last an average of 23.5 days. Using the data from the hospitals, we can estimate how far back in time their cohort of infected people was. One report put that at 6 days. Another suggested about 5.9 days. Let's say 6 days. So, take the count of those who died times the growth factor raised to the power of the number of days = 1.42^6 = 8.2 times the count of dead.

On January 29, the confirmed count was 8,650. The dead count was 170. And the survived count was 130. That report may still not show effects of the quarantine, and so should be good for our purposes.

Take the 8,650 count of confirmed infected persons today and move it back in time 6 days by dividing by 1.42^6 = 1,055 people in the cohort those who died came from. Now divide 170 by 1,055. The result = 16.1% of the cohort dying. Take that with a huge grain of salt. We know from SARS that it's death rate averaged about 10%. MERS averaged about 40%. So 16% is not unreasonable. But this is a really tentative calculation based on lots of assumptions using exponential growth data. It would likely be safe to assume that the actual death rate is somewhere in the range of 10-20% based on these parameters.

We do not have (or at least I have not seen) good data on the average time from admission to being declared disease free. But we can work the problem backward to get an estimate. Take the current count 8,650. We need to move back X days to the cohort that the survivors came from. Take the survivor count of 130 and divide by the fraction surviving to estimate the original cohort they came from. 130 /(1 - 0.161) = 155. Now 8,650 = 155 * 1.42^X, solve for X = 11.5 days.

Now sanity check that. Is it reasonable that people take 5.5 days longer to be confirmed recovered than to die based on what we know? It is well within the 23.5 days. But that raises a question why on average people are still in hospital for 12 days longer than on average being confirmed to have survived. That might be reasonable to avoid spreading infections by assuring they are no longer contagious. I simply do not know if that is reasonable. The large time span with an intense need for beds makes me suspect that tis points to a serious flaw in the assumptions - an error of some sort.

Anyway, what you can see from this is that the estimate of those currently infected with pure exponential growth and no intervening factors would be about 1.42^7 = 11.64 times the current confirmed infected count. The count of those suspected to be infected should be about 1.42 times the infected count. The count of those who have died should be about 1/45th of the current confirmed count. And the count fo those who survived should be about 70-90% of the count of those who died (76% by the math in this example).

So now lets go back and think about this again. We aren't dealing with just one generation of people. The counts represent the time summed total of many different generations. To do this calculation more correctly (still an overly simple model), we would have to do all of those in parallel and add them. We would also need to do a stochastic calculation using the uncertainty bands for all of this. As you can see, even using this "simple" exponential growth model, the problem gets complicated quickly.

But the complications get worse. We have information now that this disease predominantly kills people over age 55. The precise data for that is also messy, as the death rate has to be calculated using this same messy exponential math (or more complicated models). It is all too easy to get that wrong. That can be confused by things like how long it takes for elderly people to succumb compared to younger people. The younger people who presumably survive longer before dying represent an earlier smaller cohort of people. If we estimate their death rate from current data, it will look like they are more resistant even if they aren't. Etc...

We also seem to be seeing a strong gender difference with 70% of the fatalities being male. That too may be caused by artificial biases. For example, if men have "better" access to health care, they may get earlier treatment, where the women might die at home and be counted later. Or, the men might be the ones going out into areas where they become infected, while the women don't. I do not know that any of these are true for this population. Nor do I mean to speculate that they are or even might be. I just mean to point out that fairly simple biases like these can make large differences in the short term results while the virus is spreading exponentially.

Once the quarantine went into effect, huge changes happened. People know to wear masks and use good hygiene practices to avoid spreading the disease. And these are societally mandated and enforced. Also, because of other factors, people are staying indoors and not frequenting the usual places. This dramatically reduces the opportunity for viral spread. But with an at least 2.85 day generation time and a 5-7 day time for appearance of symptoms, the effects of these changes won't be seen at the earliest until 5-7 days after they began. That is just about now.

Does this help?

Sam

Bearing all of that in mind. We still know far too little to be certain about much. We can be certain that it is a fast spreading lethal disease.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 01, 2020, 01:09:44 AM
It is morning in China. Here are the latest numbers.

截至 2020-01-31 16:01 全国数据统计
数据说明
11,821 确诊病例
17,988 疑似病例
     259 死亡人数
     243 治愈人数

As of 2020-01-31 16:01 National Statistics
the data shows
11,821 confirmed cases
17,988 suspected cases
     259 deaths
     243 cured

The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 01, 2020, 01:14:37 AM
Wow.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 01:26:49 AM
Thank you for the clear explanation Sam.
A complex topic laid out well enough that even I can understand your logic.
.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 01:37:27 AM
Up date 14:00 Zulu.
11374 cases.
259 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 01, 2020, 02:48:19 AM
Thank you for the clear explanation Sam.
A complex topic laid out well enough that even I can understand your logic.
.

KiwiGriff

You are welcome. As I said, that is an extremely simplified version. I hoped it was simple enough to follow. I am grateful that it is. It won't be for most people. Though it gets the right shape of the problem, it isn't really right.  It is more of a thumbnail estimate. And, I think you can see all of the complexities that follow to do it correctly. Still, thumbnail estimates are useful, even if they aren't accurate - mostly for making the problem easier to understand.

More even, it I think helps point out that there are multiple ways to attack the problem. Tracing individual cases with all of their complexities gives a much more accurate estimate of the answer. But that takes a lot of time and effort. Early in a rapidly expanding pandemic, that simply won't be fast enough. Understanding the general shape of the problem can give sufficient insights to help guide thinking about the problem and what to do in response. And more importantly - help avoid making some really big blunders.

One such insight that appears to flow from the data and even this simple analysis is the idea that the generation time is shorter than the time to appearance of symptoms. Recognizing that is hugely important in deciding what to do, as it suggests that there are silent carriers that will spread virus without showing symptoms.

That has now been confirmed several times. So the insight wasn't wrong, though it could have been.

The impact in the potential error that might come from making such a judgement and acting on it, is small compare to the gain in doing things to stop the early spread of the disease into new populations.

That involves things like precautionary quarantining small populations of people evacuated from hot zones. There is a real burden to that population. But that burden is small compared to the societal risk of not doing that.

The Chinese government took that a giant leap further in quarantining 56 million people. That too appears to have been a very good judgement on their part, though the long term impacts on the disease spread will take time to sort out. And the societal impacts and responses to that will no doubt take a generation to unfold. There are all sorts of serious societal issues to unravel and consider. That will give generations of sociologists, virologists, epidemiologist, politicians and others a lot to work on for a very long time.

Whatever answer and conclusions they reach will apply to them, and only less so to others in other countries with different societal dynamics and expectations.

Sam

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 02:50:17 AM
Thanks for the analysis, Sam ...  +1

---------------------
Evolving Statistics
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048518/coronavirus-case-load-and-death-toll-china-rise-epicentre-hubei-province

Authorities in China’s coronavirus epicentre of Hubei province reported 45 new deaths from the illness and 1,347 new confirmed cases on Saturday, both daily record highs.

According to the National Health Commission in Beijing, 11,791 cases have been confirmed in China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions as of Friday (Globally: 11,943). The new deaths have brought the nationwide death toll to 259.

As of Friday, Hubei had 7,153 confirmed cases, with 36,838 still under observation for infection, according to the provincial health authority. Some 956 individuals with the illness are in “severe” condition and 338 are in “critical” condition.

Underscoring the apparent ease with which the illness may be spreading, a recent statement by the government of Xinyu, a city in Jiangxi province – which is adjacent to Hubei – said 17 new cases have been confirmed in the city, and that 15 of them were infected by a single person.

... Beijing has sent more than 7,000 medical workers to the province of Hubei to help fight the deadly disease.

----------------------------

'The City Is Suffocating': Diary of the Wuhan Coronavirus Lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/the-city-is-suffocating-diary-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-lockdown

---------------------------

Reuters is reporting that the northern Chinese city of Tianjin has ordered schools and non-essential companies to remain closed until further notice to curb the spread of the coronavirus that has already infected thousands in the country, a local government-run newspaper said.

Tianjin Daily, said the date when work and school could resume would be announced at a later stage, citing a local government committee responsible for controlling the epidemic.

Tianjin, which has a population of around 15 million and borders capital Beijing, had 32 confirmed cases of coronavirus as of 10pm local time on 31 January. (... that will cost Billions $)

----------------------------

Coronavirus: How Facebook Clickbait Fuels a Perfect Storm of Fake News On China’s Doorstep
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3048453/wuhan-coronavirus-how-facebook-clickbait-fuels-perfect

High internet penetration and poor digital literacy provide fertile ground for wild claims and misinformation in Myanmar

Some people in Myanmar believe false rumours that onions and alcohol are antidotes, while others rely on celebrity news pages for ‘the truth’

-----------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sedziobs on February 01, 2020, 02:55:29 AM
The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Are the confirmed cases limited by the number of tests that can be performed each day?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on February 01, 2020, 03:14:27 AM
The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Are the confirmed cases limited by the number of tests that can be performed each day?

I hope that is not the case, but there are reports of limited testing supplies available.

2 things trouble me today.

1) Can anyone confirm the validity of the videos circulating, shows bodies lying in the streets?  Those videos paint a much larger picture of what is going on if valid?

2)The 7th confirmed German case is apparently the child of one of the employees of the company where the virus was first reported.  The reason this troubles me so much, is if this child went to school at any point while carrying this virus.  Germany could be the next place we see a large cluster of cases outside of China. :-\
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 01, 2020, 04:08:31 AM
SH wrote:
Quote
There are 6 confirmed cases in the U.S. We all need to take a deep breath
.

About two weeks ago, there were only a hand full of cases of this virus in the world. Now there are well over 11,000 confirmed cases (and likely many times that unconfirmed).

Maybe...get a high quality face mask before taking that deep breath?? :)

Meanwhile: ...Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/31/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-study/index.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 04:28:23 AM
China Virus Cases May Be Undercounted Even With 3,000% Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-31/china-virus-cases-surging-3-000-may-be-undercounting-infections

Shortage of testing kits creates bottlenecks to process

A shortage of testing kits and overworked hospital staff are straining China’s health system, hampering efforts to accurately track how many people have the pathogen. The result is a hectic and imprecise process that’s creating bottlenecks as health experts attempt to pin down the scope of a disease that has claimed more than 200 lives.

The challenge of keeping up with the tally can be seen in Hubei, at the center of the outbreak.

The province can process about 6,000 tests a day, health commission director Liu Yingzi told a press briefing Wednesday, noting that Hubei had about 50,000 test kits in stock. But with 5,806 confirmed cases and 32,340 people under observation, it’s uncertain if that is enough.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_4iMfYOYbfg/v0/740x-1.png)

... Jonathan Yu, a doctor at a university hospital in Wuhan, is on the front lines, testing patients for the coronavirus. Accurately spotting the virus isn’t easy and can take several attempts, he said.

“A patient may be found as negative for the first or second test, and then found to be positive the third time,” said Yu. “It is like fishing in a pond: You did not catch a fish once, but that does not mean the pond does not have fish.”


Another doctor in the city who declined to be identified said her hospital was facing shortages of testing kits to confirm that people have the disease, as well as lacking in spare beds and respirators for patients.

Chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi said in a video posted on social media Jan. 29 that some hospitals in the city of Wuhan don’t have enough kits and are telling patients that severe cases have to be prioritized. Chen, who has expressed anti-Communist Party sentiments in the past, cited interviews with people who suspected they have the virus as well as visits to local hospitals.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i0BDxiCqDpyI/v0/740x-1.png)

... China is making moves to improve the situation. Health officials approved two new kits on Tuesday, in addition to the existing four types, according to Xinhua News Agency. One of the two new kits can give results in about 30 minutes, shortening the time needed to diagnose cases, according to Technology Daily.

Roche Holding AG is also producing kits, and the government says it’s streamlining transport access to make sure relevant supplies get through. However, Roche said Thursday it was still having trouble getting its equipment to where it’s needed.

Yu, the Wuhan doctor, said the shortage of virus detection kits has lessened recently, although there is still a shortage of masks, glasses and other supplies.

----------------------------

Agence France-Presse reports that African countries are scrambling to avert an outbreak of the rapidly spreading coronavirus strain, as health officials warn that the poorest countries are ill-equipped to combat the deadly disease.

Across the continent, governments have stationed nurses at airports to check for feverish passengers and have suspended Chinese entry visas, while ordinary people grow increasingly nervous.

There have been no verified infections in Africa to date, but deep trade links with China and often overstretched healthcare systems are raising concerns about the capacity to respond to an outbreak.

-----------------------------

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200130/Wuhan-coronavirus-is-genetically-different-from-human-SARS-MERS-CoV-study-found.aspx

Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding Lu, Roujian et al. The Lancet,
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

...All ten genome sequences were very similar, with 99.98 percent sequence identity, indicating a very recent emergence of the virus into humans. Also, the 2019-nCoV was closely related to two bat-derived SARS-like coronaviruses, the bat-SL-CoVZXC21, and bat-SL-CoVZC45, which shared 88% of the genetic sequence. These strain samples were collected in 2018 from Zhoushan, eastern China.

However, the scientists found that the current coronavirus strain samples were more distant from SARS-CoV and the MERS-CoV, with 79 percent and 50 percent identity, respectively.


The study findings unveiled that the Wuhan coronavirus fell within the subgenus Sarbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus, mostly similar to its closest relatives, the bat-derived coronaviruses, and genetically distinct from the human SARS. But the Wuhan coronavirus has a similar receptor-binding domain structure to that of human SARS, which means the virus utilizes the same molecular doorway as SARS to enter human cells.

"It is striking that the sequences of 2019-nCoV described here from different patients were almost identical. This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV originated from one source within a very short period and was detected relatively rapidly. However, as the virus transmits to more individuals, constant surveillance of mutations arising is needed," Professor Weifeng Shi, Key Laboratory of Etiology and Epidemiology of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Universities of Shandong, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, China, said in a statement.

... “These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and 2019-nCoV in particular. However, despite the importance of bats, it seems likely that another animal host is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans," Professor Guizhen Wu, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said.

She believes that though bats are the likely original host of the virus, there might be an intermediate host of the virus, between bats and humans. She noted that the first surge of coronavirus cases started late in December 2019, a period when most of the bat species are hibernating. Also, she emphasized that before the outbreak, there were no bats sold or found in the Huanan seafood market, while many mammals and other non-aquatic animals were sold.

In both the MERS and SARS infections, bats served as the natural reservoir, with another animal acting as an intermediate host. Therefore, she said that a wild animal might have acted as a hidden virus reservoir, posing threat to human populations.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 01, 2020, 05:09:14 AM
Thank you for this, vox_mundi

Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

"This new modelling study estimates 75,800 individuals in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of January 25, 2020 - but authors caution that the true size of the epidemic remains unclear "

As of January 25th 75,800 in Wuhan alone?  The only bright spot might be that the true # of cases may already be very large, giving the disease a lower fatality rate overall.  International cases remains a clear barometer

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 01, 2020, 08:02:15 AM
China Virus Cases May Be Undercounted Even With 3,000% Surge
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-01-31/china-virus-cases-surging-3-000-may-be-undercounting-infections

Shortage of testing kits creates bottlenecks to process

A shortage of testing kits and overworked hospital staff are straining China’s health system, hampering efforts to accurately track how many people have the pathogen. The result is a hectic and imprecise process that’s creating bottlenecks as health experts attempt to pin down the scope of a disease that has claimed more than 200 lives.

The challenge of keeping up with the tally can be seen in Hubei, at the center of the outbreak.

The province can process about 6,000 tests a day, health commission director Liu Yingzi told a press briefing Wednesday, noting that Hubei had about 50,000 test kits in stock. But with 5,806 confirmed cases and 32,340 people under observation, it’s uncertain if that is enough.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_4iMfYOYbfg/v0/740x-1.png)

... Jonathan Yu, a doctor at a university hospital in Wuhan, is on the front lines, testing patients for the coronavirus. Accurately spotting the virus isn’t easy and can take several attempts, he said.

“A patient may be found as negative for the first or second test, and then found to be positive the third time,” said Yu. “It is like fishing in a pond: You did not catch a fish once, but that does not mean the pond does not have fish.”


Another doctor in the city who declined to be identified said her hospital was facing shortages of testing kits to confirm that people have the disease, as well as lacking in spare beds and respirators for patients.

Chinese human rights lawyer Chen Qiushi said in a video posted on social media Jan. 29 that some hospitals in the city of Wuhan don’t have enough kits and are telling patients that severe cases have to be prioritized. Chen, who has expressed anti-Communist Party sentiments in the past, cited interviews with people who suspected they have the virus as well as visits to local hospitals.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i0BDxiCqDpyI/v0/740x-1.png)

... China is making moves to improve the situation. Health officials approved two new kits on Tuesday, in addition to the existing four types, according to Xinhua News Agency. One of the two new kits can give results in about 30 minutes, shortening the time needed to diagnose cases, according to Technology Daily.

Roche Holding AG is also producing kits, and the government says it’s streamlining transport access to make sure relevant supplies get through. However, Roche said Thursday it was still having trouble getting its equipment to where it’s needed.

Yu, the Wuhan doctor, said the shortage of virus detection kits has lessened recently, although there is still a shortage of masks, glasses and other supplies.

----------------------------

Agence France-Presse reports that African countries are scrambling to avert an outbreak of the rapidly spreading coronavirus strain, as health officials warn that the poorest countries are ill-equipped to combat the deadly disease.

Across the continent, governments have stationed nurses at airports to check for feverish passengers and have suspended Chinese entry visas, while ordinary people grow increasingly nervous.

There have been no verified infections in Africa to date, but deep trade links with China and often overstretched healthcare systems are raising concerns about the capacity to respond to an outbreak.

-----------------------------

https://www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20200130/Wuhan-coronavirus-is-genetically-different-from-human-SARS-MERS-CoV-study-found.aspx

Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor binding Lu, Roujian et al. The Lancet,
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30251-8/fulltext

...All ten genome sequences were very similar, with 99.98 percent sequence identity, indicating a very recent emergence of the virus into humans. Also, the 2019-nCoV was closely related to two bat-derived SARS-like coronaviruses, the bat-SL-CoVZXC21, and bat-SL-CoVZC45, which shared 88% of the genetic sequence. These strain samples were collected in 2018 from Zhoushan, eastern China.

However, the scientists found that the current coronavirus strain samples were more distant from SARS-CoV and the MERS-CoV, with 79 percent and 50 percent identity, respectively.


The study findings unveiled that the Wuhan coronavirus fell within the subgenus Sarbecovirus of the genus Betacoronavirus, mostly similar to its closest relatives, the bat-derived coronaviruses, and genetically distinct from the human SARS. But the Wuhan coronavirus has a similar receptor-binding domain structure to that of human SARS, which means the virus utilizes the same molecular doorway as SARS to enter human cells.

"It is striking that the sequences of 2019-nCoV described here from different patients were almost identical. This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV originated from one source within a very short period and was detected relatively rapidly. However, as the virus transmits to more individuals, constant surveillance of mutations arising is needed," Professor Weifeng Shi, Key Laboratory of Etiology and Epidemiology of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Universities of Shandong, Shandong First Medical University and Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, China, said in a statement.

... “These data are consistent with a bat reservoir for coronaviruses in general and 2019-nCoV in particular. However, despite the importance of bats, it seems likely that another animal host is acting as an intermediate host between bats and humans," Professor Guizhen Wu, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said.

She believes that though bats are the likely original host of the virus, there might be an intermediate host of the virus, between bats and humans. She noted that the first surge of coronavirus cases started late in December 2019, a period when most of the bat species are hibernating. Also, she emphasized that before the outbreak, there were no bats sold or found in the Huanan seafood market, while many mammals and other non-aquatic animals were sold.

In both the MERS and SARS infections, bats served as the natural reservoir, with another animal acting as an intermediate host. Therefore, she said that a wild animal might have acted as a hidden virus reservoir, posing threat to human populations.

Thank you for finding this info. It is very important. It is yet another of the growing list of complications and uncertainties. If the hospitals have a growing backlog of tests, that could delay reporting. Delays in reporting would (if and when they occur) falsely look like a slowing in the exponential rise of the number of infected people.

Based on the rate of rise, the current Size of the population seeking care, and the potential testing rate limits, we may be very close to the point where the confirmed numbers cease to be useful, and may instead become misleading (lending to false confidence the pandemic is slowing when it isn’t).

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: morganism on February 01, 2020, 11:14:04 AM
2019 Corona virus has 4 inserts that match HIV, showing possible bio-hacking.

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

" The  finding  of  4  unique  inserts  in  the  2019-nCoV,  all  of  which  have identity  /similarity  to  amino  acid  residues  in  key  structural  proteins  of  HIV-1  is  unlikely  to  be fortuitous in nature. This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus.  ".

Unexpectedly, all the insertions got aligned with Human immunodeficiency Virus-1 (HIV-1). F

"As none of these 4 inserts are present in any other coronavirus, the genomic region encoding these inserts represent ideal candidates for designing primers that can distinguish 2019-nCoV from other coronaviruses".

"This  indicates  that  these  insertions  have  been  preferably  acquired  by  the  2019-nCoV, providing it with additional survival and infectivity advantage. Delving deeper we found that these insertions were similar to HIV-1. Our results highlight an astonishing relation between the gp120 and Gag protein of HIV, with 2019-nCoV spike glycoprotein. These proteins are  critical for  the viruses  to  identify  and  latch  on  to  their  host  cells  and  for    viral  assembly  (Beniac  et  al.,  2006). Since surface proteins are responsible for host tropism, changes in these proteins imply a change in  host  specificity  of  the  virus.  According  to  reports  from  China,  there  has  been  a  gain  of  host specificity in case 2019-nCoV as the virus was originally known to infect animals and not humans but after the mutations, it has gained tropism to humans as well. "

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 01, 2020, 12:05:49 PM
The effects of the quarantine may be beginning to show. This looks tentatively like an R0 reduction from 2.7 to 1.7.

Are the confirmed cases limited by the number of tests that can be performed each day?
Even if they are not, lowering R0 to 1.7 is not enough. We have to get it below 1 to beat this thing.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 01, 2020, 01:07:36 PM
New confirmed cases in Hubei daily numbers
371
1291
840
1032
1220
1347

Rest of mainland China, new confirmed cases daily numbers
387
381
721
676
760
216

Not sure I trust that 760 to 216 figure, looks like some provinces haven't updated from previous day.

In Hubei 1347 is not much larger than 1291 4 days previously. The optimistic view is that the quarantine is working well but there has been some catching up on testing recently leading to continuing increase in confirmed cases.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 01, 2020, 01:45:19 PM
That's strange ,in the province Zhejiang there were 428 cases on Thursday. Yesterday it jumped to 537. And today not a single one. Maybe it's running out of control, or maybe no test kits.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 01, 2020, 01:49:48 PM
Still more from Michael Snyder:

Fear Of The Coronavirus Is Spreading Like Wildfire All Over The Globe
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/fear-of-the-coronavirus-is-spreading-like-wildfire-all-over-the-globe
Quote
This does not appear to be an ordinary virus.

Global authorities are not disclosing everything that they know, and this is another reason why fear is spreading like wildfire.  Most people just want accurate information so that they can make good decisions, and from the very beginning of this crisis the information that we have been getting has definitely not been accurate.

Will The Coronavirus Outbreak Cause A Massive Stock Market Crash?
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-cause-a-massive-stock-market-crash
Quote
Could it be possible that this coronavirus outbreak will be the trigger that finally bursts the biggest stock market bubble in U.S. history?  As I have discussed previously, stock prices in the United States were the most overvalued that they have ever been during the month of January, and our stock market has never been more perfectly primed for a huge meltdown.  But stock prices are all about what investors believe will happen in the future, and if they remain convinced that the future is bright then perhaps this stock market bubble could persist for a while longer.  Unfortunately for Wall Street, this coronavirus outbreak is starting to create a wave of fear in the financial community.  In fact, concern about the coronavirus pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 600 points on Friday, and that represented the worst day for the Dow since last August…

EDIT:
And still more from Dr. Chris Martinson:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/new-coronavirus-ro-of-4-1-massive-contagion-risk/
Quote
As Chris says in the below video, this is an alert we’d hoped not to have to deliver.
A new study coming out of China reports that the Wuhan coronavirus has an Ro of 4.1. That means it’s much more contagious than previously feared:
If indeed the case, an Ro of 4.1 means there is NO way of stopping this virus from becoming a full-blown global pandemic.
This study has not yet had time to be peer-reviewed, so the data may change. But going with the data we have *right now* in this fast-developing situation, it is time to start preparing yourself and your loved ones.
Not time to panic, mind you. But start taking steps to prepare should you need to shelter in place for a period of days/weeks if the virus hits your community.
N95 masks, sanitizers, household cleaners, etc, body protection, food stores, etc.
Hopefully you won’t have to self-isolate. But if you do, be sure you’ve prepared in advance.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 05:52:19 PM
I've worked-in and managed hospital, pharmaceutical and toxicology labs for the last 45 years so here is some background information on the 'stage of the game' for 2019-nCov testing ...

- Several companies are providing experimental kits to identify 2019-nCov
- These kits vary in sensitivity and specificity - results from one companies kit is not exactly equivalent to another companies
- Normally a diagnostic kit takes 6-24 months to develop, scale-up, and be certified for human testing. They've pushed these products out in 1-2 weeks. This is beta testing on live subjects.
- PCR testing is (normally) not a high volume/high throughput test. It takes 5-6 hours to run a batch of 96 (384 with some instruments). This is a fundamental feature of the test. 18% of tests are QC (non-patient samples)
- If you want to increase the the number of tests performed each day you have to add more instruments (... and run them around the clock)
- Initial screening is with pan-CoV PCR primers (... meaning the PCR test is not entirely specific to 2019-nCov, but rather, the primers cross react - to varying degrees - with all coronaviruses)
Quote
... The nucleocapsid (N) protein for coronaviruses is highly conserved across coronavirus families and cross-reactivity between 2019-nCoV and SARS N proteins (90% homologous) should allow commercially available antibodies and antigens to SARS N protein to be used for diagnostic testing for Wuhan nCoV.
- Confirmatory testing is done with specific 2019-nCov complimentary primers

WHO Diagnostic Detection of 2019-nCoV by real-time RT-PCR Protocol:
 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/protocol-v2-1.pdf?sfvrsn=a9ef618c_2

^How samples are screened and confirmed is on the last 3-4 pages.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/b8/G-Storm_thermal_cycler.jpg)
Thermal Cycler

(https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/lifesci/intranet/staffpg/support/genomics_new/real-time_pcr/agilent_mx3005p.jpg)
Analyser

--------------------------------------

BGI Genomics: In response to this situation, and immediately after the occurrence of unexplained pneumonia in Wuhan on December 31, 2019, BGI successfully developed a Real-Time Fluorescent RT-PCR kit for detecting 2019-nCoV, which can issue results in a few hours (5-6 hours).

https://www.bgi.com/global/company/news/bgi-develops-real-time-dna-based-kit-for-detecting-the-2019-novel-coronavirus/

Global HQ: Shenzhen, China
Regional HQs:
Europe: Copenhagen, Denmark
Asia Pacific: Hong Kong, China
Americas: San Jose, CA, USA
Active in 100+ countries

---------------------------------------

Meridian BioScience: Diagnostic Solutions for Novel Coronavirus Outbreak

Supplies primers

https://meridianlifescience.com/novel-coronavirus

---------------------------------------

Genomica just announced that it is planning to make a testing kit for the coronavirus commercially available in the next five to seven weeks. The test will have the capacity to analyze 96 patient samples at the same time, with results within five hours, according to the Madrid-based company. Genomica already markets a diagnostic kit for 20 viruses that cause respiratory diseases, including coronaviruses, and has a subsidiary located in Wuhan, the source of the outbreak of the novel coronavirus.

In full production, GENOMICA is able to manufacture individual batches of sufficient size to analyze up to 12,000 samples. This is achieved by means of a validation course that takes place between the stages of development and production of each kit, and which allows to ensure that changes due to significant increases in volumes as well as the use of robotic equipment for the automatic dispensing, do not affect those parameters critical for the kit performance, such as analytical and diagnostic reproducibility initially established during the development phase.

http://genomica.es/en/in_vitro_diagnostics_products_clart_pneumovir.cfm

(https://cdn-tp2.mozu.com/27776-44382/cms/44382/files/37c57c2e-bb74-44d6-8280-a53a3a131a33?maxWidth=500&_mzCb=undefined)

---------------------------------

Roche Diagnostics has an immunoassay test in development that (they claim) can output results in 30 min. Availability: March?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/lab/rt-pcr-detection-instructions.html

Quote
... A false negative result may occur if inadequate numbers of organisms are present in the specimen due to improper collection, transport or handling.

RNA viruses in particular show substantial genetic variability. Although efforts were made to design rRT-PCR assays to conserved regions of the viral genomes, variability resulting in mis-matches between the primers and probes and the target sequences can result in diminished assay performance and possible false negative results.

------------------------------

Needless to say, these tests require trained techs, full personal protection equipment and dedicated testing facilities.

------------------------------

I do not envy the poor slogs that have to run these tests day after day. Not only are they constantly exposed to a deadly disease; but, everyone, from their supervisor to the Chinese premier, are breathing down their neck for results. NO PRESSURE!!!!

(https://pics.me.me/no-pressure-get-it-wrong-n-you-die-4481805.png)

----------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 01, 2020, 06:01:28 PM
Another city goes in full lockdown. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/second-chinese-city-bars-residents-leaving-their-homes-hong-kong-workers-demand-city?fbclid=IwAR3DlYAqPw7GOZRVmgc736HuxfvgTYxZOT0w7riSybM7qjJnS-Nbt4_y5Kg

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 06:12:45 PM
Updates:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/01/coronavirus-latest-updates-us-ban-china-death-toll-hits-259-live-news
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048518/coronavirus-case-load-and-death-toll-china-rise-epicentre-hubei-province

Global: 12027
China: 11860
Deaths: 259

--------------------------------

https://youtu.be/qfEnWTtlEEs

---------------------------------

British Foreign Office pulls staff out of China

The British Foreign Office is withdrawing staff from China hours after flying dozens of UK nationals home from coronavirus-hit Wuhan, PA Media reports.

Essential staff will remain to continue “critical work” but the FCO has warned that its ability to provide help to Britons in the country may be limited.

-----------------------------------

Authorities have detected the first suspected case of coronavirus in Tunisia (Africa), according to local reports.

The passenger is male and was returning to Tunis Airport via Qatar from China.

---------------------------------

Public Health England (PHE) have confirmed that one of the two individuals recently reported to have tested positive for coronavirus is a student at the University of York, but that risk of infection on campus remains low.
https://www.york.ac.uk/alert/
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public

---------------------------------

New restrictions on the second worst-hit city in China. In Huanggang, only one family member per household will be allowed to go out every two days to get supplies, necessities.
https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223515232661692416

----------------------------------

A hospital in Xinyu, Jiangxi, has shut down after 14 of its staff were confirmed to be infected with the coronavirus, the deputy director of the Chinese Centre for Disease Control Cheng Huijian said on Saturday.

Forty staff at Number Four Hospital in the city had been isolated and its health commission director Jian Guisheng told Thepaper.cn that 15 of the 17 new confirmed cases involved hospital staff.

One of the hospital’s employees was confirmed to have contracted the virus on January 23 but Jian did not elaborate on whether the patient may be a “super-spreader” – a patient who has contact with others at the most virulent stage of the disease.

----------------------

US Companies Suspend China Operations, Restrict Travel as Coronavirus Outbreak Becomes Global Crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/01/coronavirus-companies-suspend-china-operations-restrict-travel.html

--------------------------

Man Taken Off American Airlines Flight for Wearing Gas Mask
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-us-canada-51342278

---------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bernard on February 01, 2020, 06:29:41 PM

Does this help?

Sam

Bearing all of that in mind. We still know far too little to be certain about much. We can be certain that it is a fast spreading lethal disease.

Thanks Sam. Yes, it did help me.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 01, 2020, 06:39:38 PM
https://twitter.com/SKonermann/status/1223344537772290048

"Just checked their results. The similarity is spurious. Out of 4 inserts they identify between NCov and SARS, 2 are found in bat coronavirus. Of the remaining two, only one is most similar to HIV, and is so short (6 AA) that the similarity is not higher than chance given database"

"The other novel insert between the bat coronavirus glycoprotein and NCoV is more similar to 13 viruses besides HIV and none of those similarities is higher than chance (given insert size/viral protein database size)"

https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1223343979292434433

"Exactly. If these inserts are as described, it should be easy for a number of labs around the world to replicate these results, and rather quickly. We shall see."

https://twitter.com/Dereklowe/status/1223369665533050880

"TBH, I would expect an actual bioweapon to display far more obvious signs of engineering. But I would also expect such a weapon to be far nastier than this virus, bad news though it is."

The narrative of a bioweapon was always inevitable.  What I see looks more like an evolutionary cousin of SARS, better adapted to its host.



Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 01, 2020, 06:48:44 PM
No, it must be the Chinese government conspiring with aliens from the andromeda galaxy. Only this can explain a virus.

/s
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 01, 2020, 06:53:17 PM
Quote
This is a fundamental feature of the test. 18% of tests are QC (non-patient samples)
Ahhh...why?
BTW, I wonder if other governments (especially mine) would be able to impose the extreme measures China is imposing on its population?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 06:57:49 PM
Quote
[ Newly added 2 cases of cumulative confirmed 93 cases in Yunnan # ] On February 1 from 02:00 to 12:00, Yunnan Province reported 2 new cases of new coronavirus infection pneumonia. A total of 93 confirmed cases were reported across the province.
...Snip.
Newly diagnosed patients:
the 92nd case: a 63-year-old male, Wuhan, Hubei, traveling from Wuhan to Guizhou and Yunnan by car on January 15th, and successively to Luoping, Maile, Yuanyang, January 19th to January 24th, Jianshui, Longyang, Ruili and other places arrived in Tengchong on January 25, and were admitted to Tengchong medical institution for isolation and treatment on January 31.
Case 93: A 24-year-old male, a Red River Jianshui man, living in Lihaozhai Township, Jianshui County, taking a flight from Wuhan to Kunming on January 21, and a shuttle bus from Kunming to Jianshui on January 22, and the passenger returned by shuttle bus on the same day At Li Haozhai's home, he was admitted to a medical institution in Jianshui County for isolation and treatment on January 29.

You think this is contained within China's boarders?



Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 01, 2020, 07:08:48 PM
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Proper International cases for Feb 1st from the EU CDC.  I'm not sure if this graph is updating intraday.

There are today 167 cases outside of Mainland China.

What has everyone currently spooked is the asymptomatic superspreader that visited Germany, but during this CDC presser we heard that there is

asymptomatic transmission
fluxuating viral count / false negatives
there are certain to be more cases in the US

https://youtu.be/oMI-9Kvoj7Q?t=255
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 07:20:39 PM
Quote
This is a fundamental feature of the test. 18% of tests are QC (non-patient samples)
Ahhh...why?

Read all of these and then explain to the class ... Why?

https://www.qcnet.com/Portals/50/PDFs/QCWorkbook2008_Jun08.pdf

http://www.grcpk.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/11.-Quality-Control-in-PCR.pdf

http://www.mvcac.org/amg/wp-content/uploads/Quality-control-Presentation-SG.pdf

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/12/10/e6/1210e608d84c1d816f1bece451e59d59.jpg)

Quote
... BTW, I wonder if other governments (especially mine) would be able to impose the extreme measures China is imposing on its population?

Yes ... Its called Martial Law ... All your freedoms go bye-bye.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 07:31:38 PM
Yes ... Its called Martial Law ... All your freedoms go bye-bye
Not going to happen in the United States of paranoid delusions.
Enough nutbars have been wound up by the GOP, NRA and right wing media to create a civil war if they tried .
Bubba got a coal rolling truck and a 50 cal he ain't gonna obey your rules.


Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 01, 2020, 07:35:17 PM
Could you fix the links, vox_mundi? They don't work.
Meanwhile, in China:
'Virus control beyond standards': China warns countries against spreading havoc as more borders shut & flights canceled worldwide
https://www.rt.com/news/479843-china-coronavirus-responce-panic/
Quote
Beijing "does not agree with the approach adopted by individual countries to create tension or even panic," the minister pointed out, reminding that the World Health Organization (WHO) "did not approve of travel or trade restrictions on China."

and
China to exempt taxes for imports of products related to virus control
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-taxes/china-to-exempt-taxes-for-imports-of-products-related-to-virus-control-idUSKBN1ZV3K0
Quote
China will implement tax exemptions for imports of products related to curbing the coronavirus outbreak, the finance ministry said on Saturday.

Materials directly used for epidemic control will be exempt from import tariffs from Jan. 1 to March 31, the ministry said in a statement on its website.

Imports of donations including ambulances and disinfectant products will also be exempt from tariffs, value-added tax and consumption tax, it said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 07:54:18 PM
China Reports Outbreak of Deadly Bird Flu Among Chickens in Hunan Province, Close to Coronavirus Epicentre of Wuhan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048566/china-reports-outbreak-deadly-bird-flu-among-chickens-hunan

China has reported an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in Hunan province, which lies on the southern border of Hubei province, the epicentre of the rapidly spreading coronavirus.

The H5N1 avian flu virus, often called bird flu, causes severe respiratory disease in birds. and is contagious to humans. It is possible, but difficult, to transmit the infection from person to person, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

However, bird flu is deadly to humans who contract it, with a mortality rate of close 60 per cent in cases of the last 15 years. Bird flu is much deadlier to humans than either Sars (a 10 per cent mortality rate) or coronavirus (a 2 per cent mortality rate in the outbreak so far).

-----------------------

Chinese Man Caught Paddling Wooden Tub Across Yangtze River to Escape Virus Lockdown
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048539/chinese-man-busted-paddling-wooden-tub-across-yangtze-river

A Hubei man was briefly detained for breaching coronavirus travel restrictions after he was found rowing a wooden tub across the Yangtze River

Police are looking for a man from Xiaogan, a mega city in Hubei that is in lockdown, after he allegedly boarded an illegal oil tanker at a port in Shanghai

---------------------------

A case of the virus has been confirmed in Boston, Massachusetts, in a man in his 20s who recently traveled to Wuhan, China, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health announced Saturday. So far, eight cases have been confirmed in the U.S: three people in California, two in Illinois and one each in Washington state, Arizona and Massachusetts.

----------------------

China’s deputy central bank governor, Pan Gongsheng, said in an interview with state run news agency Xinhua that if needed, the bank would inject liquidity into the markets after the open on February 3 amid stress over the spread of the virus and declines on Wall Street.

-----------------------

“Countries need to get ready for possible importation in order to identify cases as early as possible and in order to be ready for a domestic outbreak control, if that happens,” WHO spokesperson told The Associated Press

-------------------------------

.... “We worry that the market underappreciates the duration of this crisis in China,” Raymond James’ Chris Meekins, a former official for the Department of Health and Human Services, wrote in a Jan. 30 note. “We believe the travel advisories are likely to continue for the next few months.”

--------------------

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-updates-china-cancels-tariffs-on-us-virus-prevention-products.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on February 01, 2020, 08:58:40 PM
The latest numbers from China include a world wide figure in excess of 12,000 for the first time
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia (https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia)


This is something none of us have experienced. No one knows with any certainty what lies ahead. We at least have been mentally preparing ourselves for the possibility of local and global catastrophes.


This isn't the big one, but it might well be a big one.
It's certainly time to consider what actions we'll take when this comes to the local hospital we rely on.
Stay Home & Stay Healthy
Terry





Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 01, 2020, 09:01:42 PM
It's getting closer, an 8th infection in Germany.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 09:39:01 PM
John Hopkins has shifted to hourly reporting .
12037 cases.
259 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 01, 2020, 09:51:27 PM
Quote
Read all of these and then explain to the class ... Why?

Quote
The false positives are identified by including good quality negative, positive and non
target controls (reagent blank). In diagnostic PCR it is mandatory to include at least one
negative and a positive DNA control. It is also essential to include a reagent blank that
contains every thing except DNA (non target control). The latter is included to exclude
contamination of the reagents by extraneous DNA. If the reagent blank shows
amplification of the target DNA the result of complete batch of samples becomes null and
void.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on February 01, 2020, 09:55:27 PM
John Hopkins has shifted to hourly reporting .
12037 cases.
259 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A change, maybe insignificant but still a small light in the darkness. 259 deaths but 284 recovered, for the first time more people have been discharged from hospital with a future instead of in a bodybag.

Edit: Language
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 01, 2020, 10:13:20 PM
The numbers are inconsistent for many reasons .
Take them as a guide not a fact. You need much more than one days numbers to discern a change trend.
This is the source of their Chinese numbers.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 01, 2020, 11:54:48 PM
Coronavirus: 45 More Deaths, 1,921 New Cases Reported in Hubei Province, the Epicentre of the Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048575/coronavirus-45-more-deaths-1921-new-cases-reported-hubei

Authorities in China’s Hubei province, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, reported 45 new deaths and 1921 new confirmed cases as of Saturday.

These are both slightly lower than Fridays figures, and bring the nationwide number of cases to 14,722 and the total death toll to 304. There have, as of yet, been no deaths outside of mainland China. The global total is 14,893.

As of Saturday, the province has reported 9,074 confirmed cases, with 43,121 still under observation for infection. Of the confirmed cases, 1,118 are in severe condition and 444 are critical.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 12:02:36 AM
Pentagon Prepping Housing for 1,000 People Over Coronavirus Concerns
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/01/politics/defense-department-housing-coronavirus/index.html

The Pentagon said Saturday that Defense Secretary Mark Esper has approved a request to provide military housing for up to 1,000 people who may need to be quarantined upon arrival in the United States from overseas travel due to concerns about possible infection from coronavirus.

The Pentagon said the Department of Health and Human Services requested that the Defense Department provide several facilities capable of housing at least 250 people in individual rooms through February 29. The Pentagon said the locations selected to assist, if needed, are: the 168th Regiment, Regional Training Institute in Fort Carson, Colorado; the Travis Air Force Base in California; the Lackland Air Force Base in Texas; the Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California.

"Under the request, DOD will only provide housing support, while HHS will be responsible for all care, transportation, and security of the evacuees. DOD personnel will not be directly in contact with the evacuees and evacuees will not have access to any base location other than their assigned housing," the Pentagon said in a statement.

--------------------------

Coronavirus: New York City Eyes First Suspected Case, Officials Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/nyregion/coronavirus-new-york-city.html

New York City health officials announced on Saturday that a patient at Bellevue Hospital Center may have the novel coronavirus. If confirmed, it would be the first known instance of the virus in New York City.

Local authorities are unable to test for the virus so they are sending a sample to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for confirmation. Based on the patient’s symptoms and travel history from China, they are taking it seriously. This is the first time that city officials have sent a sample to the C.D.C. for testing.

Another reason the health authorities suspect it is the novel coronavirus: They have tested it for influenza and other common illnesses, and those tests came back negative, health officials said.

The health authorities said the individual is under 40 and is in stable condition. They said they do not expect to receive results from the C.D.C. for 36 to 48 hours, or possibly longer.

... In recent days, the sight of people wearing surgical masks as they rode the subway or walked on the streets has grown more common.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 02, 2020, 12:12:18 AM
Coronavirus: 45 More Deaths, 1,921 New Cases Reported in Hubei Province, the Epicentre of the Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048575/coronavirus-45-more-deaths-1921-new-cases-reported-hubei

Authorities in China’s Hubei province, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, reported 45 new deaths and 1921 new confirmed cases as of Saturday.

These are both slightly lower than Fridays figures,

Don't get this. 45 is lower than 46. 7153 to 9074 is indeed 1921, but the previous day went from 5806 to 7153 which is only 1347. So 1921 is a large increase when we may have been hoping for quarantine to be reducing them
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on February 02, 2020, 12:14:44 AM
Coronavirus: 45 More Deaths, 1,921 New Cases Reported in Hubei Province, the Epicentre of the Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048575/coronavirus-45-more-deaths-1921-new-cases-reported-hubei

Authorities in China’s Hubei province, the epicentre of the novel coronavirus outbreak, reported 45 new deaths and 1921 new confirmed cases as of Saturday.

...
If these numbers hold it's possible that the growth of new cases and deaths is no longer exponential.

Also I haven't seen this mentioned here; apologies if it's already been posted.

Quote
Update January 31: Modeling the Spreading Risk of 2019-nCoV

...

We believe the actual number of 2019-nCoV cases in mainland China are likely much higher than that reported to date. Specifically, we estimate there to be around 58,000 cumulative cases of 2019-nCoV in mainland China by the end of January (as of January 31, the reported cases is close to 12,000). This estimate is in line with our previous analysis on January 25, which estimated the proportion of reported to estimated cases to be close to 10%.  It is likely that part of this discrepancy is due to reporting delays. However, the substantially larger number of estimated cases suggest a majority of the cases may be mild (or asymptomatic), do not require seeking medical care, and thus are not reported.

...
Source: https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov-model-2/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 02, 2020, 12:14:57 AM
China Reports Outbreak of Deadly Bird Flu Among Chickens in Hunan Province, Close to Coronavirus Epicentre of Wuhan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048566/china-reports-outbreak-deadly-bird-flu-among-chickens-hunan

China has reported an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 bird flu in Hunan province, which lies on the southern border of Hubei province, the epicentre of the rapidly spreading coronavirus.

The H5N1 avian flu virus, often called bird flu, causes severe respiratory disease in birds. and is contagious to humans. It is possible, but difficult, to transmit the infection from person to person, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

However, bird flu is deadly to humans who contract it, with a mortality rate of close 60 per cent in cases of the last 15 years. Bird flu is much deadlier to humans than either Sars (a 10 per cent mortality rate) or coronavirus (a 2 per cent mortality rate in the outbreak so far).

Not good. Not good at all. H5N1 is deadly. Worse, it is in chickens. Birds and pigs are the chief animal carriers of flu virus. And if this virus makes it to migratory birds (ducks in particular), then it will be in the flyways.

The principal means of transmission of flu virus globally is by way of birds. Many species migrate to the arctic north where they meet up with birds from all over the Northern Hemisphere - which then carry the virus with them as they migrate back south, spreading the virus as they go.

Way back in the dark ages - the 1970s - it was discovered that flu outbreaks lined up underneath the migratory flyways.

In addition to bird to human transmission, flu is transmitted human to human. Just like the corona virus this might be slowed by human interventions. But with a simultaneous pandemic with corona virus the results may be chaotic. People with symptoms of fever and vomiting could be either disease. That makes things very hard for the health care workers, right up until the system is completely overwhelmed. At that point in a pandemic, people will mostly need to fend for themselves at home.

The corona virus is already stressing the health care and other systems to the breaking point. Adding another outbreak on top of that makes it much more likely that the second even more deadly outbreak becomes its own fearsome pandemic.

The one advantage with H5N1, is that if the human to human transmission can be slowed enough or stopped, there may be time to begin a mass vaccination campaign against it. Human to human transmission for H5N1 is so far - inefficient. It is principally transmitted from birds to humans, reducing the pandemic potential. The vaccines exist now. But they may require months to be produced targeted at the pandemic version of the virus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H5N1_vaccine

At least that is a better case than the corona virus where the lead time to produce a vaccine is likely a year and a half.

Then too there are the other human aspects. We have now built a hyper-connected just in time world with supply chains connecting every country to every other country. The impact of closing borders for even short periods become immense in short order.

However, even more impactful, we have built our societal systems on an immense fragile interconnected monetary system that is dependent on these trade links. Breaking those has immediate impacts on the financial systems.  That is bad enough on its own. But, people often care much more about money than pretty much anything else. As a consequence, when those links are jeopardized, they will work mightily to protect them. And that works in direct competition with efforts to contain the spread of contagion.

Add to that the inevitable black and grey markets that immediately develop and the likelihood of containment is made very low.

Now it is all getting scary.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 02, 2020, 12:27:43 AM
Sam, thank you for your many thoughtful insights on this thread.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 12:31:29 AM
Virus May be Lurking in Feces (2:55 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-31/u-s-to-quarantine-americans-returning-from-hubei-virus-update

While doctors have focused on respiratory samples from pneumonia cases to identify coronavirus patients, they might have ignored a less apparent and hidden source of the spread: diarrhea.

Diarrhea occurred in about 10-20% of patients afflicted with severe acute respiratory syndrome about 17 years ago and was the source of an explosive SARS outbreak in the Amoy Gardens residential complex in Hong Kong.

SARS and Wuhan viruses bind to the same distinctly shaped protein receptors in the body that are expressed in the lungs and intestines, making these organs the primary targets for both viruses, said Fang Li, an associate professor of veterinary and biomedical sciences at the University of Minnesota.

The novel coronavirus was detected in the loose stool of the first U.S. case -- a finding that hasn’t featured among case reports from Wuhan. Squat latrines, common in China, lacking covers and hands that aren’t washed thoroughly with soap and water after visiting the bathroom could be a source of virus transmission, said John Nicholls, a clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong.

A virus-laden aerosol plume emanating from a SARS patient with diarrhea was implicated in possibly hundreds of cases at Hong Kong’s Amoy Gardens housing complex in 2003.

Masks may be of limited benefit in the event the virus is being transmitted via the fecal-oral route, said John Nicholls, a clinical professor of pathology at the University of Hong Kong.

----------------------

U.S. Case Treated With Gilead Drug (9:50 a.m. HK)

The first reported use of an experimental Gilead Sciences Inc.drug to fight the novel coronavirus has encouraged doctors to support further testing of the medication.

Gilead’s remdesivir was given to the first U.S. case, a 35-year-old man who developed pneumonia after he tested positive for the 2019-nCoV virus. The patient’s pneumonia appeared to improve within a day, with no obvious side effects, after the intravenous drug was administered, his doctors reported.

----------------------

U.A.E. Reports Fifth Virus Case, WAM Says (11:30 a.m. NY)

A patient who arrived in the United Arab Emirates on a flight from Wuhan, epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in Hubei Province, has been confirmed as being infected, the state-run WAM news agency reported, citing the health ministry.

The U.A.E. now has five confirmed cases, according to the statement.

-----------------------

Hong Kong Medical Workers Vote to Strike (9:14 a.m. NY)

Thousands of Hong Kong medical professionals voted to begin a five-day strike Monday after the government refused their demand to shut all entry points from China amid the deadly virus outbreak on the mainland.

---------------------

China Seeks to Ensure Coal Supply (8 a.m. NY)

China’s energy regulator asked coal miners and state-owned enterprises to resume production, subject to inspections and health measures, according to a statement from the National Energy Administration.

The regulator wants to prioritize coal supply in areas heavily hit by the epidemic, as well as in northeast China, Beijing, Tianjin and Tangshan. NEA asked local authorities to report daily production from Feb. 3 and warned that miners that resume operation slowly will be summoned.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on February 02, 2020, 12:45:24 AM
Sweden had its first confirmed case of the coronavirus. This individual - as a precaution - isolated herself when arriving in Sweden after her return from a visit in Wuhan. She had a friend deliver food to her home. When symptoms started to show, she did not go to hospital herself. Instead she contacted health authorities over the phone and was taken to hospital by an ambulance to avoid contact with anyone.

If everyone took this personal responsibility it would be over really quick.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on February 02, 2020, 12:54:53 AM
As per the official notification from the Chinese government (as translated by google) it seems as if this H5N1 outbreak is already over (the usual caveats regarding any information provided by the Chinese government obviously apply).

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&u=http://www.moa.gov.cn/gk/yjgl_1/yqfb/202002/t20200201_6336498.htm

...

In addition to bird to human transmission, flu is transmitted human to human. Just like the corona virus this might be slowed by human interventions. But with a simultaneous pandemic with corona virus the results may be chaotic. People with symptoms of fever and vomiting could be either disease. That makes things very hard for the health care workers, right up until the system is completely overwhelmed. At that point in a pandemic, people will mostly need to fend for themselves at home.

...
Fortunately though human-to-human transmission of H5N1 has been found thus far to be inefficient.

...

The one advantage with H5N1, is that if the human to human transmission can be slowed enough or stopped, there may be time to begin a mass vaccination campaign against it. The vaccines exist now. But they may require months to be produced targeted at the pandemic version of the virus.

...
Yes but although the vaccines exist, their effectiveness is limited by their modest immunogenicity and the antigenic diversity of H5N1 circulating virus. However, oseltamivir may be of some help in both prophylaxis and treatment.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/healthprofessionals.htm
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 02, 2020, 01:11:23 AM
Once more - it is morning in China.

截至 2020-02-01 16:08 全国数据统计
数据说明
14,411 确诊病例
19,544 疑似病例
     304 死亡人数
     328 治愈人数

As of 2020-02-01 15:59 National Statistics
the data shows
14,411 confirmed cases
19,544 suspected cases
     304 deaths
     322 cured

Meanwhile, the Johns Hopkins Website reports.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

13,983 confirmed cases (includes 167 cases outside China)
     304 deaths
     331 cured

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 02, 2020, 01:22:43 AM
edmountain

Thanks. I updated my post.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 02, 2020, 01:49:51 AM
The Global Supply & Demand Shock Of The Coronavirus
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/01/31/the-global-supply-demand-shock-of-the-coronavirus/
Quote
More than 300 of the Global Top 500 companies have a presence in Wuhan, including Microsoft and Siemens. Wuhan is located in the Hubei Province.

Chinese Woman Whose Relatives Died From Wuhan Coronavirus Berates the Chinese Regime: Video
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-woman-whose-relatives-died-from-wuhan-coronavirus-berates-the-chinese-regime-video_3223223.html
Quote
A local from Wuhan City videotaped herself lashing out at the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) for the way it handled the coronavirus outbreak that has killed scores of people in China, including her own relative(s). The video was recorded on Jan. 26 and has since gone viral on Chinese social media.

There are several similar videos circulating on Chinese social media, and this woman is so far the only one who eschewed wearing a mask despite the fact that revealing her face could compromise her identity. But she did not reveal her name in the video.
That is very bold for a woman in Mainland China.

More than half of China extends shutdown over virus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/01/coronavirus-more-of-china-extend-shutdown-accounting-for-80percent-of-gdp.html
Quote
At least 21 provinces, municipalities and regions in China have told businesses not to resume work before Feb. 10 at the earliest.
Last year, those parts of China accounted for more than 80% of national GDP, and 90% of exports, according to CNBC calculations of data accessed through Wind Information.

Pilots, flight attendants demand flights to China stop as virus fear mounts worldwide
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines/pilots-flight-attendants-demand-flights-to-china-stop-as-virus-fear-mounts-worldwide-idUSKBN1ZT33W?il=0
Quote
Pilots and flight attendants are demanding airlines stop flights to China as health officials declare a global emergency over the rapidly spreading coronavirus, with American Airlines’ pilots filing a lawsuit seeking an immediate halt.

Travel curbs mount on China as virus toll rises
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/travel-curbs-mount-on-china-as-virus-toll-rises-idUSKBN1ZV38I?il=0
Quote
The epidemic has led to mass evacuations of foreign citizens and risks exacerbating a slowdown in growth in the world’s second-largest economy. Russia said its aerospace defense forces - part of the armed forces - would begin flying its citizens out on Saturday.

Inside China, Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, was under a virtual quarantine, with roads sealed off and public transport shut down. Elsewhere, local authorities placed growing restrictions on travel and business.

Apple to close all China mainland stores due to virus outbreak
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-apple/apple-to-close-all-china-mainland-stores-due-to-virus-outbreak-idUSKBN1ZV3F5?il=0
Quote
Apple Inc on Saturday said it would shut all of its official stores and corporate offices in mainland China until Feb 9. as fears over the coronavirus outbreak mounted and the death toll more than doubled to over 250 from a week ago.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 03:16:48 AM
‘The Time to Worry is Now’: The Coronavirus in China Could Threaten Pharma’s Ingredient Sourcing
https://www.statnews.com/pharmalot/2020/01/27/china-coronavirus-pharmaceutical-ingredients/

The spread of the coronavirus in China has raised concerns about the pharmaceutical industry's global supply chain, STAT reports.

China is now home to 13% of all facilities that make ingredients for medicines that are sold in the U.S., according to the Food and Drug Administration. By comparison, 28% of such facilities are in the U.S. and 26% are in the European Union.

Between the lines: China produces a large portion of the ingredients used to make drugs. As the coronavirus spreads and sends China increasingly into lockdown, it's causing experts to question whether the supply chain is stable.

Roughly 80% of active ingredients used by commercial sources to produce finished medicines come from China,  Christopher Priest, deputy assistant director at the U.S. Defense Health Agency, said in testimony given last July to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.

Quote
... “I would be asking my supply chain folks what do we have coming from China, what’s our inventory, and if we don’t have enough, can we get as much as fast possible? And remember, this isn’t just a U.S. problem. It’s a global problem if China starts shutting down its borders.”

Most ingredient production is concentrated in Zhejiang province, which is something of a manufacturing hub that lies along the East China Sea, far from the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, however the outbreak is expanding.

Also, a growing number of Indian generic makers purchase ingredients from China. And the U.S. sources many of it's generics from India.

The possibilities can be seen by playing connect the dots. In the U.S., for instance, medicines imported from India account for 40% of all generics used. And roughly 90% of all prescriptions written in the U.S. are for generics. The upshot: An untold amount of ingredients made in China are finding their way to U.S. medicine cabinets.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 02, 2020, 06:45:57 AM
Update .
Cases 14561
Deaths 305

Quote
Most ingredient production is concentrated in Zhejiang province, which is something of a manufacturing hub that lies along the East China Sea, far from the city of Wuhan, where the outbreak began, however the outbreak is expanding.

 Zhejiang province has the second most cases.
661 .

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 02, 2020, 06:54:05 AM
 :-\
Quote
The 47th patient, male, 59 years old, now lives in Hedong District and is an employee of the Tianjin Railway Coach Section. The patient had contact with the 6 confirmed cases and the 2 confirmed cases. Fever appeared on the evening of January 23, and was sent to the Third Central Hospital of the City for fever isolation and treatment in the early morning of the 24th. The nucleic acid test was negative. He returned home at night on the 25th to continue his home medical isolation observation. He continued to have fever and went to the third on the 28th The central hospital sent a fever consultation and was treated in an isolation ward. The nucleic acid test was still negative. Due to high suspicion, the nucleic acid test was positive again on February 2. The 47th case of Tianjin was confirmed by the city expert group, which was severe. Currently, the patient has been transferred to Haihe Hospital for treatment. The Hedong District Center for Disease Control and Prevention is continuing medical observation of its relatives (1 person) in isolation medical observation and terminal disinfection of their residence.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 07:09:49 AM
STATNews Free Coronavirus Coverage
https://www.statnews.com/tag/coronavirus/

-----------------------------

Philippines Reports First Death Outside China as Duterte Orders Travel Ban On Visitors from Mainland, Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3048576/china-coronavirus-duterte-orders-travel-ban-visitors

The victim was a 44-year-old male Chinese national who was the companion of a 38-year-old Chinese woman who arrived in the Philippines from Wuhan on January 21

A new Philippine travel ban could apply to all travellers from China, regardless of nationality

------------------------------
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/31/u-s-to-quarantine-all-u-s-citizens-evacuated-from-wuhan-as-cdc-raises-pandemic-possibility/

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters health officials were prepared for the possibility that the outbreak of the coronavirus could become a pandemic — the worldwide spread of a disease. “We are preparing as if this is the next pandemic,” she said, stressing that the agency hoped it would not become one.

CDC scientists have developed a test for the coronavirus, but Messonnier said it might not be advanced (sensitive) enough to detect the virus if people are not showing symptoms yet. The quarantine is set for 14 days because that is the longest amount of time the virus is thought to be able to “incubate” in a person before creating symptoms.

-----------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 02, 2020, 07:16:24 AM
My gut feeling: China's self-imposed and rather harsh measures eventually slow the virus, while some other country(ies) become the new hub.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 02, 2020, 08:56:03 AM
The Philippines, Manila. Everybody has a mask on.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 02, 2020, 10:26:03 AM
One of my nurses after my recent dash in an ambulance is Philippino  .. he has booked his non-refundable wedding on the volcanic island that erupted and is now half a world away from his future wife . His flight home later this month has just been cancelled as it was going thru Hong Kong . b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 02, 2020, 10:43:16 AM
News just came in there are two new confirmed cases in Germany. Pretty close to my hometown i might add. *sigh*
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 02, 2020, 01:24:11 PM
2-Feb-20 World View -- Wuhan coronavirus hits China's economy hard, threatens world economy
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200202.htm#e200202
Quote
This is really three articles in one, so I will not provide three quotes. However, I will say I have been following John Xenakis for some years, and his historical framework of Generational Dynamics has IMHO well explained historical developments and has had a good record of predicting near-future developments.

EDIT: Meanwhile, a couple tiny glints of optimism from Peak Prosperity:
Coronavirus: Now That It’s A National Emergency, Is It ‘Too Late’?
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-now-that-its-a-national-emergency-is-it-too-late/
Rather than quoting I will comment on something that stood out for me. The speaker (a doctor) notes he did not post a single alert during the disease scares of the last dozen years. I remeber the ebola panic of 2014, so that is significant to me.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 03:57:22 PM
https://youtu.be/gRtpXPKd6Zc

----------------------------

Quarantine Centres Set Up for Coronavirus Patients in Wuhan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048575/coronavirus-45-more-deaths-1921-new-cases-reported-hubei

Authorities in Wuhan, the central China city at the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, will force people with symptoms and those who have been in close contact with confirmed cases to stay in “centralised” quarantine zones, with immediate effect.

Once inside the designated zones people will be given free accommodation and medical treatment, the health authority said on Sunday.

Quote
... “Patients shall cooperate,” ... “Whoever refuses to cooperate will be subject to enforcement by the police.”

Anyone who refuses to relocate will be forcibly moved by the police, city government says as number of new cases continues to rise sharply

While the government did not say how many quarantine sites there were, where they were located or how many people would be affected, it said the new rule would take immediate effect.

Also on Sunday, Hubei authorities ordered all cities in the province to ensure their quarantine hospitals, areas or wards were ready to accept incoming patients. In several areas, hotels, hostels and idle factories have been requisitioned and repurposed to meet the growing need for beds.

(https://static01.nyt.com/images/2015/06/18/sports/20150618prison-slide-PC5V/20150618prison-slide-PC5V-videoLarge-v2.jpg)
... Shades of things to come

-------------------------------

Pentagon is also working on them.
See: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg247453.html#msg247453

------------------------------
Also, Hong Kong ...

Hong Kong’s Largest Quarantine Site with 300 Dormitory Units to be Ready in One to Two Months
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3048588/hong-kongs-largest-quarantine-site-300-homes-be-ready-one

Source says while no official announcement on extension at existing quarantine centre Lei Yue Mun Park and Holiday Village has been made, decision was ‘top-down’

Facility will be built on basketball court, with converted containers

The extension will be the biggest upgrade of capacity to a total so far of 97 living spaces provided across three existing facilities: fully occupied Lady MacLehose Holiday Village; the half-filled Lei Yue Mun site; and Po Leung Kuk Jockey Club Pak Tam Chung Holiday Camp, which will begin operations soon.

-----------------------------

https://youtu.be/Zru5REL9ANg

------------------------------

China To Inject US$174 Billion of Liquidity Into Markets Amid New Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048618/china-inject-us174-billion-liquidity-markets-amid-new

China’s central bank will pump 1.2 trillion yuan (US$174 billion) into financial markets on Monday, as part of an effort by regulators to mitigate volatility when trading opens against the backdrop of a new coronavirus outbreak.

Investors in Shanghai and Shenzhen are bracing for a possibly brutal return to trading when markets resume for the first time since the Lunar New Year holiday.

In the face of the “epidemic situation”, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) said on Sunday it would “inject 1.2 trillion yuan via reverse repo operations on February 3 to ensure sufficient liquidity supply.”

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Outbreak Exposes Anti-Chinese Sentiment in the Philippines
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/lifestyle-culture/article/3048626/coronavirus-outbreak-exposes-anti-chinese-sentiment

Ethnic Chinese organisations in the country have called for calm amid an uptick in ‘anti-China racist stereotypes and xenophobic attacks’
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 02, 2020, 04:03:26 PM
"Unconditional xenophobia against the chinese is intensifying in South Korea "

"Former mayor in the Philippines burns chinese flag in Manila"

https://japantoday.com/category/world/fears-of-new-virus-trigger-anti-china-sentiment-worldwide
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 04:53:17 PM
Gilead Sciences Offers Experimental Drug for Coronavirus Treatments, Testing
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gilead-sciences-offers-experimental-drug-for-coronavirus-treatments-testing-11580511519

The U.S. biotech firm has formalized agreement with China to conduct clinical trial of remdesivir

---------------------------

Washington State Coronavirus Patient Is Recovering After Receiving a Trial of an Experimental Antiviral Drug

... After testing positive for the deadly coronavirus, the patient was admitted to an isolation unit at Providence Regional Medical Center. On his sixth day of hospitalization, according to the NEJM, "clinicians pursued compassionate use of an investigational antiviral therapy."

After treatment with the antiviral, Remdesivir, "the patient's clinical condition improved." The patient is still in the hospital, but all of his symptoms except a cough have resolved.

Remdesivir is made by the drug company Gilead Sciences. It is not yet licensed or approved but it is being tested as a coronavirus treatment.

---------------------------

Coronavirus Treatments Could Help Treat This Outbreak — And the Next One
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2020/1/31/21114176/coronavirus-treatments-universal-vaccines-china-outbreak

... Sheahan works on projects funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to identify antiviral drugs that can treat coronavirus infections. In the past few years, the teams have honed in on a drug called remdesivir, an antiviral developed by the pharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences. That drug was tested in humans as a treatment for Ebola in 2014 and 2015, and was found to be safe, even though it didn’t work well against that disease.

“It’s a broad-spectrum antiviral, and it can work against a host of genetically unrelated viruses,” Sheahan says. In cells, it can block SARS, MERS, and other coronaviruses found in animals. In mice, it’s been effective in fighting off SARS and MERS infections.

Just because remdesivir works in mice doesn’t mean it would work in humans, but it’s already been given to people during Ebola trials and health officials think it’s safe — so it could more rapidly be tested in patients who have the new coronavirus. Gilead said it would provide the drug to patients with the new coronavirus through compassionate use “where appropriate.” Remdesivir has not been approved by any regulatory bodies.

https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access

There are other options for coronavirus treatments too. Back in 2003, preliminary studies showed that the combination of two antiviral drugs used to treat HIV, lopinavir and ritonavir, was effective in patients with SARS. Testing halted as the SARS outbreak subsided, but now the drugs are being tested in patients with the new coronavirus.

-----------------------

Thailand Sees Good Result from Using Drug Mixture on Coronavirus
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-02/thailand-sees-good-result-from-using-drug-mixture-on-coronavirus

The patient’s condition significantly improved within 48 hours after the medical team decided to use antiviral drugs originally used for HIV and influenza in his treatment, Kriangsak Attipornwanich, a doctor at the state-owned Rajavithi Hospital who is treating the patient, told reporters at the Public Health Ministry briefing Sunday. The patient’s test result also turned negative, the doctor said.

The doctors used the flu treatment oseltamivir along with lopinavir and ritonavir, both HIV drugs. 

---------------------------

New Coronavirus: How Soon Will a Treatment Be Ready and Will It Work?
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2232026-new-coronavirus-how-soon-will-a-treatment-be-ready-and-will-it-work/amp/

... When people are infected with a new virus, it can take two weeks for the body to produce enough antibodies to fight it off. Injecting people with antibodies made by cells growing in a vat can keep viruses in check until a person’s immune response kicks in fully.

Antibodies are less likely to cause side effects than small-molecule drugs, because they bind more specifically to viruses whereas small-molecule drugs tend to stick to lots of other things as well. This means we should be able to find safe and effective antibodies against the 2019 coronavirus very quickly – the problem will be mass-producing them fast enough.

In fact, a team in China has already tested antibodies against the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak in 2002, and found one that binds to the new coronavirus as well. But team leader Tianlei Ying at Fudan University told New Scientist that it could take one or two months just to make enough of the antibody to start tests in animals and people.

There are two antibodies for treating the MERS coronavirus that have already been tested in people. The US biotechnology company that makes them, Regeneron, says they are unlikely to work against the 2019 coronavirus, but it will test them and others. While developing antibodies for Ebola, it took Regeneron six months to get to the stage where human tests could begin.

A Chinese company called WuXi Biologics announced in a press release https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/wuxi-biologics-enables-development-of-multiple-neutralizing-antibodies-for-novel-coronavirus-300994982.html that it is establishing a 100-strong team dedicated to developing antibody treatments for the 2019 coronavirus. It says it might be able to start mass production in a record four or five months.

By that stage, there is a chance that the outbreak could be over or millions of people might be infected, in which case making enough wouldn’t be easy. There aren’t many antibody factories, says Ball, and they are all already busy producing antibodies for treating cancer and other diseases.

... There are a few existing small-molecule drugs that might help. For instance, an experimental antiviral called galidesivir developed for treating Ebola is active against coronaviruses, says its US maker, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. It has already passed safety tests in people.

Most promisingly, two drugs given together to treat HIV – called lopinavir and ritonavir – are already approved for human use, and in small trials they seemed to reduce disease severity and fatalities in people infected by the SARS or MERS coronaviruses.

Doctors in Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, have already started a randomised controlled trial of lopinavir and ritonavir. “Given the scale of the outbreak in China, you would hope to get a reasonably quick answer to whether these interventions work,” says Ball. “The manufacturing for these is already in place and they are easily available.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 02, 2020, 06:08:41 PM
EU CDC changed formatting of their chart but kept the schema mostly intact at least

First inkling of good news I think.  Daily international cases may have broke the curve.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 06:17:09 PM
^ Coincidentally, numbers also dropped last Sunday; maybe too early to tell.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 02, 2020, 07:10:39 PM
Evacuation of Russians from China by Air Force planes scheduled for February 3-4
https://tass.com/society/1115375
Quote
The evacuation of Russian nationals from China on the Aerospace Force’s aircraft is scheduled for February 3-4, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Saturday.
"Due to the fact that it has taken certain time to finalize the coordination of flight information by the Chinese side, the evacuation of Russian nationals from China by planes of the Aerospace Force will be carried out on February 3-4," Peskov told reporters.

Coronavirus won't turn you into a 'zombie', says Malaysia
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/malaysia-wuhan-coronavirus-zombie-tweet-rumours-12382426
Quote
The deadly coronavirus will not cause victims to act like zombies, Malaysia's government said on social media, as officials act to correct the spread of misinformation surrounding the outbreak.
I notice the article did not mention vampires or leprechauns  :D

China’s Senior Health Officials Struggle to Answer Questions about Coronavirus, as Another City is Under Full Lockdown
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinas-senior-health-officials-struggle-to-answer-questions-about-coronavirus-as-another-city-is-under-full-lockdown_3219647.html
Quote
At a Jan. 26 press conference, governor of Hubei Province Wang Xiaodong did not wear a mask; but Hubei secretary Bie Bixiong did. However, his mask also did not cover his nose. Wuhan mayor Zhou Xianwang wore a mask, but wore it inside out.
And Dan Quayle could not spell 'tomato'  :D

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 07:29:10 PM
Two Patients Diagnosed in Germany After Evacuation Flight (5.37pm)
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-german-evacuation-flight-from-china-carried-two-infected-people/a-52229955

Two people who landed in Frankfurt from Wuhan Saturday tested positive for coronavirus, bringing Germany’s total to 10 cases. The two were on a German evacuation flight that was carrying 115 people back from China.

... German Health Minister Jens Spahn said he had spoken by telephone to his US counterpart and that they agreed health ministers of G7 countries should discuss a unified approach to the coronavirus.

"It doesn't make sense for one country to take measures alone, especially not in Europe," Spahn said.

---------------------------

Infections May Be Underreported, Caijing Says
https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/1849054/thai-doctors-deploy-hiv-drugs-virus-update

Many people suspected of being sick with the coronavirus in Wuhan aren’t being counted as having been infected, and some suspicious deaths haven’t been checked and included in the death toll due to a shortage of tests, according to Caijing, a Chinese media company. The Saturday report was deleted from the internet Sunday.

The deaths were recorded as due to viral pneumonia and not pneumonia caused by the coronavirus, Caijing wrote.

An unidentified doctor from a Wuhan hospital designated for coronavirus treatment said that they have admitted about 600 severe cases, but none of these patients were confirmed as having coronavirus due to a lack of tests.

----------------------

Herbal Remedies for the Coronavirus Spark Debate in China (3.41pm)

A claim by Chinese scientists that a liquid made with honeysuckle and flowering plants could help fight the deadly coronavirus has sparked frenzied buying of the traditional medicine, but doubts quickly emerged.

As the death toll from the SARS-like pathogen sweeping the country continues to rise, shoppers have swamped pharmacies in search of "Shuanghuanglian".

(... an alcohol-water extracts of three herbs: lonicera (shuanghua, often called jinyinhua), scute (huangqin), and forsythia (lianqiao).)

The rush came after influential state media outlet Xinhua reported Friday that the esteemed Chinese Academy of Sciences had found the concoction "can inhibit" the virus.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=UXTfkNFrdUM

-----------------------

More Infections in India, Vietnam, South Korea (11.05am)

A second case of the new coronavirus has been detected in the southern state of Kerala in India in a patient with a travel history to China. The patient is in a stable condition, it said.

Vietnam said a 73-year-old Vietnamese American was tested positive for the novel coronavirus on Jan 31, more than two weeks after transiting in Wuhan. He had a two-hour stopover at a Wuhan airport on the way to Vietnam from the US on Jan 15. That brings the total there to seven.

South Korea has 15 confirmed cases now, and authorities on Jeju Island have asked the central government to temporarily ban entrance of Chinese nationals.

---------------------------

NYC Seeks OK to Conduct Own Tests (7.30am)

New York City wants to conduct its own tests on suspected virus patients, rather than wait for the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to complete the analysis. The city suspects a patient who turned up at Bellevue Hospital late Friday feeling unwell has the infection. If confirmed, it would be the first instance of the virus in the city.

Officials are waiting for the CDC tests, which may take as long as 36 hours. Commissioner Oxiris Barbot of the Department of Health and Mental Hygiene said the city will have the capability within “a week or two” to perform the coronavirus tests.

-------------------------

Goldman Sachs Scraps Partners’ Meeting (7.30am)

Goldman Sachs Group Inc cancelled its global partners’ meeting in New York on Wednesday, citing concerns about the coronavirus, the company said in an email.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 02, 2020, 08:15:28 PM
This is from Zerhenge, so take it with a shaker of salt, but even a broken clock is right twice a day and, if true, this is bothering:
'Corpses Taken Directly To Crematorium' - New Accounts Detail Grisly Operation At Wuhan's Fifth Hospital
Quote
Radio Free Asia (RFA) has tweeted a disturbing video on its Twitter account on Saturday morning detailing how those who died of coronavirus in Wuhan, the outbreak area in China, were loaded up on a bus and taken "directly to the crematorium."
RFA said (in a translated tweet): "[Latest Situation of Wuhan Fifth Hospital] Some Wuhan citizens entered Wuhan Fifth Hospital on February 1st and found many patients who died of pneumonia. The corpses were packed directly to the crematorium. Paramedics are busy rescuing the dying patient."
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 02, 2020, 09:18:30 PM
14637 cases
305 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Zhong Nanshan said the epidemic would peak in the next 10 days to two weeks

Zhong Nanshan said on the 2nd: "At present, the epidemic situation in the country is still on the rise, but we judge that the epidemic situation should not produce a national outbreak, but may only be a partial outbreak." Zhong Nanshan said that in the face of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia outbreak, the most primitive The most effective method is still “early detection and early isolation”. "Our government and relevant departments have adopted a number of national initiatives: extended holidays, traffic control, body temperature detection and inspection in public places, active preaching of less gathering, personal protection knowledge, etc., and the improvement of national public safety awareness has also ensured the relevant measures Successful implementation. "Zhong Nanshan said:" These measures effectively blocked the source of infection and greatly reduced the second and third generation infection. We judge that the epidemic situation is expected to peak in the next 10 days to about two weeks, but we still need to strengthen prevention and control Relax your vigilance. "
https://m.weibo.cn/status/4467621451970226?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 09:48:59 PM
New China Virus Details Show Challenge for Outbreak Control
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/health/new-china-virus-details-show-challenge-for-outbreak-control

... "It sounds and looks as if it's going to be a very highly transmissible virus," said Robert Webster, an infectious disease expert at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital who has studied many outbreaks.

https://youtu.be/wKVjB8m1o5I

... It's still a struggle to determine who is or is not infected. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has a test, but lacks enough confidence in its accuracy to make it widely available. Too little is known about possible methods — throat or nose swabs versus blood or other samples — and how many false alarms or missed cases each might give at any point in time.

"If we had an absolutely accurate test that was very sensitive and very specific, then we could just test people and say, 'OK, we're good to go,'" Fauci said at the news conference. "We don't know the accuracy of this test."

... "Any factor that makes it harder to be sure if someone is a case or not makes control harder," he said

-----------------------

Collateral Damage: ... 'Please Take My Daughter': Mother of Girl With Cancer Pleads at Virus Blockade
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZW01X

JIUJIANG, China (Reuters) - Hours ticked by on Saturday as 50-year-old Lu Yuejin struggled to get past the police checkpoint on the bridge over the Yangtze river and out of Hubei province, which is on virtual lockdown as China scrambles to control a coronavirus outbreak.

Lu, a farmer from a village on the Hubei province side of the bridge, was trying to gain passage for her daughter, 26-year-old Hu Ping, who has leukemia. She has been unable to receive a second round of chemotherapy treatment in the overwhelmed hospitals of provincial capital Wuhan, the epicenter of the virus outbreak.

"My daughter needs to go to hospital in Jiujiang," she said at the checkpoint. "She needs to have her treatment. But they won't let us through." ... "Please, take my daughter. I don't need to go past ... please, just let my daughter go past," she asked. ... "All I want to do is save her life," she said.

-----------------------------

Coronavirus: Hundreds More Europeans Flee China Virus as Second Evacuation Plane Lands in France
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3048632/coronavirus-hundreds-more-europeans-flee-china-virus-second

An Airbus A380 landed at the military base of Istres in the southern French region of Bouches-du-Rhone on Sunday

Of the 180 French people who were flown back from Wuhan on Friday, one showed symptoms of being infected with the virus

-----------------------------

China Moves to Limit Short Selling as Virus Looms Over Market Reopening
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1ZW0P2

China has taken steps to limit short-selling activities as the country's financial markets prepare to reopen on Monday amid an outbreak of a new coronavirus, three sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The sources said China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) had issued a verbal directive to brokerages including Citic Securities Co. and China International Capital Corp. to bar their clients from selling borrowed stocks on Feb. 3.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 02, 2020, 10:51:20 PM
no reports from Africa .. although several million mobile Chinese live there . A whole continent lacks resources to deal with an outbreak that could devastate it ..
 Today the streets of Beijing are deserted and it is reported the first doctors to raise the alarm were forced to sign confessions that they were scaremongering by the police .. b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 02, 2020, 11:24:17 PM
Quote
Today the streets of Beijing are deserted and it is reported the first doctors to raise the alarm were forced to sign confessions that they were scaremongering by the police .. b.c.

Again, this is Zerohedge, so this may be fake news, but here is their latest:
China Censors Top Local Media Outlet Over Claims Beijing Is Underreporting Cases, Deaths
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-censored-caijing-accusing-it-underreporting-cases-and-deaths
Quote
Let's be honest, do you think China is reporting the actual coronavirus cases and deaths? After all, Beijing has been the master of falsifying its economic growth figures for years, what makes you think they'll change in the reporting of the deadly virus outbreak?
Balaji S. Srinivasan, angel investor and entrepreneur, also former CTO of Coinbase, tweeted Saturday that a top news organization in China, Caijing, had one of their articles banned by Beijing after it noted Chinese officials were significantly underreporting coronavirus confirmed cases and deaths, especially among the elderly.
If this is true we may not be able to rely on declining growth rate in the cases as a good omen.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 02, 2020, 11:26:06 PM
French Authorities Say 20 People Evacuated from China Showing Virus Symptoms
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3048638/coronavirus-french-authorities-say-20-people-evacuated-china

Around 20 of the 250 people flown back to France from China on Sunday because of the coronavirus outbreak are presenting symptoms of the virus, the country’s health minister said.

“About 20 people who presented symptoms have stayed on the tarmac” at Istres airport in the south of France, Agnes Buzyn told journalists. They included French and non-European nationals.

Army medics there were carrying out tests to establish whether they actually had the coronavirus and the results were expected later Sunday.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 12:14:10 AM
Big jump in cases yet to come though from Hubie  Province.
Quote
On February 2, 2020, from 04:00 to 24:00, 2103 new cases of pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus infection were added in Hubei
As of 24:00 on February 2, 2020, Hubei Province has reported a total of 11,177 cases of pneumonia caused by new coronavirus infection.
There were 56 new deaths in the province .
https://m.weibo.cn/status/4467763605208667?
Edited for brevity.
Former numbers .
Hubei cases 9074 deaths 294.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 03, 2020, 01:25:35 AM
It's Monday morning in China.

截至 2020-02-02 16:05 全国数据统计
数据说明
17,205 确诊
21,558 疑似
  2,296 重症
     361 死亡
     475 治愈

As of 2020-02-02 16:05 National Statistics
Data description
17,205 Confirmed
21,558 Suspected
  2,296 Critical
     361 Deaths
     475 Cure

Johns Hopkins site data

16,823 Confirmed
     362 Deaths
     472 Cure

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 03, 2020, 02:36:28 AM
Johns Hopkins latest figure of 17046 doesn't include updates to several provinces with large numbers of cases e.g.
Zhejiang   661
Henan   493
Hunan   463
Anhui   340
Jiangxi   333

are all the same on 2 Feb 7:45 as on 1 Feb 11pm
So perhaps 17205 figure is more comparable.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 03, 2020, 02:58:11 AM
Crandles,

I suspect you are right. The national numbers have now been updated a couple of times. They usually do slowly change during the day.

截至 2020-02-02 17:17 全国数据统计
数据说明
17,238 确诊
21,558 疑似
  2,296 重症
     361 死亡
     475 治愈

As of 2020-02-02 17:17 National Statistics
the data shows
17,238 Confirmed
21,558 Suspected
  2,296 Severe
     361 Death
     475 Healed

Johns Hopkins site data

17,318 Confirmed
     362 Deaths
     487 Cure

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 04:30:25 AM
The extra death is in the Philippines.

You would think with the risk of a global pandemic not seen since the Spanish flu someone would be up dating the information as it comes in 24/7.

John Hopkins now has 17,368 cases 362 deaths.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 03, 2020, 05:22:36 AM
If China was not successful in containing the viral outbreak sufficiently to break the back of the spread, or if the other countries haven't taken sufficient steps and the outbreak actually moves into the general population in one or more other countries, then ...

the numbers of infected, confirmed infected, critically sick, dying and recovered could quickly increase to the point that the health systems cannot deal with the patients. Counting will be the least of anyone's concerns. And quickly counting will cease to much matter.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 03, 2020, 07:30:53 AM
This article from Thailand dated Feb. 3 estimates 500,000 victims in China.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/no-respite-from-china-coronavirus-epidemic,-death-toll-now-360,-infected-16,480,-critical-2,041,-more-cities-in-china-turning-into-epicenters
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 03, 2020, 11:39:06 AM
If China was not successful in containing the viral outbreak sufficiently to break the back of the spread, or if the other countries haven't taken sufficient steps and the outbreak actually moves into the general population in one or more other countries, then ...

the numbers of infected, confirmed infected, critically sick, dying and recovered could quickly increase to the point that the health systems cannot deal with the patients. Counting will be the least of anyone's concerns. And quickly counting will cease to much matter.

Sam
Exactly. Figures are interesting in order to define when the peak is reached or if infections start to spread outside Hubei in large numbers.

To compare, it is estimated that 20-50% of global population, maybe 1 billion people, got the Spanish flu. In such situation daily five figure numbers are of no interest.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 03, 2020, 11:48:50 AM
Bruce,

That is actually not an unreasonable guesstimate. We are still missing a lot of basic information.

An early estimate by researchers at John Hopkins suggested that only 5.4% of those infected were being counted, subject to wide variation based on assumptions used in the model. We also know that the disease is predominantly hitting those over 55, who makeup about 20% of the Chinese population. If only half of those are sick enough to go to hospital, that would be 10%.

The data also suggest that the quarantine and related actions have reduced the growth rate of those confirmed infected from 1.45 fold per day to 1.20 fold per day. That is a model gamma of 0.182/day. That shift occurred beginning about 1/29/20 - 9 days after the quarantines began in Wuhan.

It takes on average 6 days to develop symptoms and 1-2 days to be confirmed. Let’s use 8 days total. Let’s also assume a median daily multiplier of 1.25 based on some of the earlier growth being at 1.40-1.45, and the most recent at 1.20. 8 days at 1.25 for 8 days is about a 6 fold increase in counts.

So multiply the current confirmed count daily increase 2,924 by 6 and by 10 and we get 175,000 If instead we use the 20% number, then we take 2,924 x 6 /0.20 = 88,000. If we use the 5.4% estimate, the total count of those infected approaches 325,000. In all of these cases, three quarters of those infected will have no symptoms - yet.

Just by using 9 days rather than 8, these guesstimates change to 220,000, 110,000, and 406,000 respectively. Given the uncertainties 500,000 isn’t an unreasonable upper estimate, especially when you compare those suspected in the last day versus those confirmed in the last day. That’s a ratio of 1.75, which us vastly greater than what we have been seeing.

The effects of the weekend on counting may play a large role and may make the reduction in the R0 as represented by the daily count multiplier non-viable. I.e. perhaps it should still be calculated at 1.35-1.4?  If so, the 6 fold factor I used above becomes 12-20 Doing that, the potential range for the number of those infected today becomes 300,000 to 1.4 million.

As I said at the beginning, we are still missing basic information. And because we are dealing with exponential equations, small differences in assumptions can have large impacts on estimates. And those have huge impacts on decision making and planning. Erring on the side of protection becomes vital.

But - - for economic, political and financial reasons there is a strong tendency to argue for only using information that has been proven - so-called “evidence based” factors. For slow moving systems this is perhaps justifiable. For fast moving systems (exponential in particular) it is essential to use a best judgement approach based on the potential consequences. Doing otherwise can and often does lead to tragic consequences precisely because the evidence is far delayed from the time it is needed for critical decisions.

This problem also shows up in many of the reports and papers estimates of the key parameters. And it shows key factors in how to interpret information. Take everything with a grain of salt.

If 100% of those showing symptoms go to the hospital, and 15% never show symptoms despite being infected, then the case fatality rate (correcting for the exponential growth issues) appears to be between 12% and 16%. However, if only 5.4% of people go to hospital, the true case fatality rate is closer to 0.75%.

But then too, if you are under 55 years of age, the CFR is essentially 0%, while if you are over 65 years the CFR is perhaps over 50%. So what exactly is the CFR telling us? Also, if the young never show symptoms despite being infected and transmitting the virus, what does this tell us about how to manage the disease and those potentially infected?

Even now, I certainly have far more questions than answers.

Sam

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 03, 2020, 12:05:57 PM
I find it interesting that this thread, covering one infectious disease, in a matter of days, has accumulated more posts than its parent thread, covering all infectious diseases, accumulated in a matter of years.

Is the Coronavirus Outbreak China's Chernobyl?
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/02/is_the_coronavirus_outbreak_chinas_chernobyl.html
Quote
It was the failure of the Soviet system in dealing with a coordinated response that shook the faith of the people. They began to question whether the Soviet government had abandoned the interests of the people in favor of propaganda.  The conclusion was that it certainly was not the health and welfare of the people which was first and foremost in Soviet governmental policy. Gorbachev himself wrote in 2006:

“The nuclear meltdown at Chernobyl… was perhaps the true cause of the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

It is clear that Gorbachev could not bring himself to admit that it was Ronald Reagan’s foreign policy which was the underlying cause. Regardless of the causes of the collapse, it seems history is about to repeat itself.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: philopek on February 03, 2020, 12:40:30 PM
I'm just sharing information here for everyone to make up his own mind and opinion.

I'm not saying that i believe or disbelieve, support or deny anything hereafter, just sharing, hence don't get back to me, i did not write it, one of my dutch friends simply put the original Dutch text into google translator because some of the below mentioned is at least worth to consider as a possibility, without giving any further value:

LINK to original text in Dutch:

https://stichtingvaccinvrij.nl/coronavirus-pandemie-en-vaccinatie/

Probably some here can translate better than Google, i can paste better translation
in here later should anyone come up with one. Even thouth i understand Dutch quite
well, I speak close to none except perhaps a few standard phrases to get along ;)


==============QUOTED & TRANSLATED TEXT ===============

CORONAVIRUS, PANDEMIC AND Vaccination
by guest author | January 31, 2020 | Policy, Vaccines & Diseases

Coronavirus China We publish this article with the permission of the author C.F. van der Horst. It is a very thorough and thorough analysis of the hype surrounding the corona virus. Please read this information and pass it on.


CORONAVIRUS, PANDEMIC AND Vaccination
by C.F. van der Horst

A new strain of the corona virus has been discovered. It has the (provisional) name 2019-nCoV. We are informed daily in the press of how many victims it has made. The news is brought up as a new pandemic after SARS, MERS and the Zika virus. New vaccinations would be urgently needed. "A corona vaccine is coming (but nobody knows whether it will be on time)," headlines Volkskrant on January 27, 2020. This text and similar alarming reports are reminiscent of images of the uproar about the dangers of swine flu, which has resulted in the Dutch Government bought 34 million vaccines (€ 7.20 each) - which later proved to be completely unnecessary.


PROMOTED PANDEMIC

At the time of the Mexican flu (2010) an article appeared in the German drug telegram entitled The sponsored pandemic - the WHO and the Mexican flu. She highlighted the questionable role of the World Health Organization (WHO). The British medical journal The BMJ also criticized WHO policies and the lack of transparency: "The key scientists who advise the World Health Organization on how to plan a flu pandemic had done paid work for the pharmaceutical companies who benefited from the advice they were preparing ".
In the book Lethal Lies - Deceive Doctors and Patients - you can read in detail about conflicts of interest between doctors, advisory bodies and the WHO and the consequences for your health. Is this also the case with this new virus and is it again a sponsored pandemic?

CORONAVIRUSSES

Corona viruses were first discovered in the 1960s. It is believed that they are responsible for a significant percentage of all colds (with breathing problems) in adults and children. In 2003, a coronavirus caused severe acute respiratory syndrome, better known as SARS. In September 2012, a new type of coronavirus, known as MERS-CoV (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus), was identified. At the turn of the year (2019-2020), a new strain of the corona virus, 2019-nCoV (an abbreviation of the English 2019 novel Corona virus) was discovered in Wuhan, China.


SYMPTOMS AND TREATMENT


Maria Van Kerkhove - WHO
There is no specific treatment for coronaviruses, but there is a specific treatment for symptoms. (Source: WHO)

"People with the new corona virus have lung problems and are short of breath. They also have a fever," reports the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) on its website. As with most diseases, the current medical approach can only fight the symptoms. "There is no specific treatment for coronaviruses, but symptoms can be treated," says Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove for the World Health Organization (WHO).


DEATH FROM SERIOUS DISEASES

The WHO reported on January 12, 2020 that in Wuhan "one of the 41 confirmed cases is dead". This death occurred in a patient with a serious underlying medical condition. "[Emphasis added] In other words, the virus can be fatal to someone who is already very sick. To someone who is healthy and has a well-functioning immune system the chance that he will get sick is slim, especially if the outcome is fatal.

On January 29, the WHO reported that the number of people with the virus had increased to over 6,000 worldwide. 99% of them were in China. The number of deaths had risen to 132.


CORONAVIRUS stimulates the imagination

The soup is not eaten as hot as it is served. Consider average mortality (higher than normal) due to normal flu over the past 10 years. In the Netherlands, this would mean an average of 2,000 people a year, including many older people with weakened immune systems. In comparison, what the new corona virus 2019-nCoV does worldwide is a laugh. RIVM spokesman Harald Wychgel said on the MSN website: "Of course, the general flu is a more real danger. But we still know little about the corona virus. It appeals to the imagination of people and the media." It is precisely this escalating fantasy that prompted the Dutch government to buy Mexican flu vaccines. Is that going to happen again?


Fake NEWS

We now know that we cannot believe everything the media tell us. This also appears to be the case with reports of new viruses and pandemics. Take SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), for example, in 2003, when Professor Frank Plummer, director of Canada's main virological laboratory, played an important role. In an article in The Scientist, this infectious disease expert said the new coronavirus is unlikely to be the cause of SARS. "The corona virus is definitely in the air, it is definitely circulating," he said, "but based on our data, the relationship with SARS is fairly weak," Plummer said in the magazine.

The New York Times Times reported that while the World Health Organization announced that the SARS-CoV coronavirus was the cause of SARS, Plummer was not so convinced. Too many results were wrong. For example, the researcher found the virus in only 40% of the probable and suspected cases. He was surprised to find that it was also present in 20% of people who were not considered SARS patients.


IS THIS TOO PRECIOUS?
WHO concluded that SARS-CoV is the cause, and was guided by the work of Dutch scientists at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam. The team headed by the virologist Ab Osterhaus experimentally infected monkeys with SARS-CoV and subsequently developed a lung disease identical to SARS. However, Plummer found it reprehensible that the Dutch scientists did not use any other monkeys as a scientific control group. He had vaccinated small animals such as rabbits, guinea pigs and mice with the SARS virus and they remained free of the disease. Plummer believed that more research and independent confirmation from other laboratories were needed before a firm statement could be made on the cause of SARS. Regarding the connection between SARS-CoV and SARS, he said: "The further we go, the less convincing the evidence becomes.


WET FINGERS PANDEMIC

In the case of swine flu (Eng. Swine flu), the cases were counted by hand. In 2009, CBS reporter Sharyl Attkisson discovered that people with flu symptoms were reported to be swine flu victims based on assumptions and estimates in the United States. However, without laboratory tests that identify the H1N1 virus as the cause of swine flu, it is impossible to determine how many of these people actually have swine flu. If you count the random flu sufferers, a pandemic will of course soon occur.


CORONAVIRUS OR AIR POLLUTION?

There is another, hardly exposed factor that could play a role in lung disease. According to National Geographic, more than a million people die from air pollution in China each year. Wuhan, an industrial city with more than 11 million inhabitants, is the most densely populated city in central China. There have been complaints of severe air pollution and (yellow) smog that can cause lung problems for years - the reason why many Chinese (you can even see school children wearing them in the pictures on the left) wear mouth caps.

Code Red was applied on January 30, 2020 at 3:00 p.m. This means that everyone in the city can experience health effects; Members of sensitive groups can experience even more serious health effects. The deaths in Wuhan or other parts of China where the circumstances are similar can therefore be (partly) due to air pollution. The Chinese authorities have a long history of steadily deteriorating air quality in their stomachs. You may see a sensational virus as a nice distraction from the real problem.


NOT VERY CONTAGIOUS

The new corona virus is reported to be spreading rapidly internationally. Since 99% of the cases are still in China, this report seems a bit exaggerated. In addition, the RIVM reports: "With what is now known, the disease does not appear to be very contagious. The disease does not appear to be easily communicable from person to person". Therefore, even if people have traveled to other countries from Wuhan despite the travel ban, the likelihood that they have infected others is very low. So how accurate are the reports of the spread of the corona virus? Nevertheless, the WHO declared the coronavirus to be a global health emergency and thus contributed to the spread of anxiety in the world population.


PANDEMICS AND FEARS

Insurance and vaccines have something in common. For both, fear must be sown first. If you insist enough on terrible consequences, sell your product. With vaccines, pandemics are fashionable to spread fear. We have already seen this with SARS, MERS, swine flu, Ebola and the Ziza virus.

The Reuters news service reported on January 24 that "with the genetic code of the Wuhan virus in hand, scientists are starting to work on a vaccine." These are experimental vaccines. One of the companies involved in the development is Moderna Inc., a biotechnology company that specializes in vaccines based on synthetic messenger RNA (mRNA, messenger ribonucleic acid). mRNA is a chemical messenger that contains instructions for the production of proteins. The idea is to make a vaccine with instructions from one of the crown-like tips on the surface of the corona virus (hence the name: corona = crown). There is hope that when this instruction enters the body, the immune system will produce antibodies to the virus.

With this experimental technology, however, there is a risk that the body will produce antibodies against body cells and trigger an autoimmune disease. It is not for nothing that there has never been an approved mRNA vaccine on the market, especially given the huge rush that is now under development, there is a good chance that a fully experimental product will be launched. Who are the guinea pigs?


FUNDING FROM THE BILL & MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION

Bill & Melinda Gates FoundationModerna is funded by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), a global alliance that funds and coordinates the development of vaccines against infectious diseases. The CEPI was founded in Davos in 2017 by the governments of Norway and India, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Wellcome Trust and the World Economic Forum.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (BMGF) plays a dubious role. In 2012, the Wall Street Journal reported: "The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has bought shares in nine major pharmaceutical companies. By participating in Merck & Co., Pfizer Inc., Johnson & Johnson and others, the BMGF has made a financial contribution to the Vaccine and drug production: According to the BMGF website, Bill Gates plans to produce the vaccine well into the next decade.


CNN reported that Bill Gates predicted a coronavirus-like outbreak in 2019. He did this in a mini-series on Netflix, How to Prevent an Outbreak, in which, together with Google's parent organization Alphabet, he was the big sponsor of the mini-series theme: the development of a universal vaccine.
Interestingly, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is the second largest sponsor of the World Health Organization after the United States. And the "independent" WHO is the source of all dismay at the 2019 nCoV.

============== END QUOTED & TRANSLATED TEXT ===============
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 03, 2020, 12:51:22 PM
Interestingly, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation is the second largest sponsor of the World Health Organization after the United States.

Wow, nice to see they are now putting money into actual institutions instead of burning it on batshit-crazy ideas. I welcome this kind of progress.

Taxing them correctly and distribute that to those institutions by default would be the next right step. A lot of money burning could be stopped and unintended consequences could be prevented.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on February 03, 2020, 12:57:15 PM
This is a dedicated anti vaccine site. I would not use it as a source.
https://stichtingvaccinvrij.nl/coronavirus-pandemie-en-vaccinatie/

Oh and ZeroHedge got kicked of Twitter for spreading fake news:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-twitter-idUSKBN1ZW0PZ


Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 03, 2020, 01:00:54 PM
ZeroHedge is just a rag filled with steaming warm shit!

Nothing more, nothing less.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 03, 2020, 01:36:52 PM
Quote
sharing information here for everyone to make up his own mind and opinion.
I managed to read about half, and formed my opinion that it's anti-science nonsense.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 03, 2020, 01:44:17 PM
Quote
I'm not saying that i believe or disbelieve, support or deny anything hereafter, just sharing, hence don't get back to me

I don't know what to say about this that is not offensive. You post something that is anti-science propaganda but you expect not to be called on it? The entitlement really boils my insides.  At least have the guts to stand by what you post, if you stand for it, or have the sensibility to warn us the crappiness of the link.

But your request is not to be bothered with it. How are you not banned yet?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on February 03, 2020, 02:26:20 PM
Deutsche Well has an article on how to tell the coronavirus from flu and common colds.

Citing the useful bits:

Quote
Symptoms atypical for coronavirus:

— Runny nose
— Sore throat

A runny nose and a sore throat are typical signs of upper respiratory infection. Therefore, those who have bouts of sneezing or get the sniffles likely have the flu or a common cold.

As the new coronavirus generally affects the lower respiratory tract, most of those infected exhibit a dry cough, shortness of breath or pneumonia, but not a sore throat.

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-how-to-tell-its-not-cold-or-flu/a-52233885

So at least those with runny noses/sore throats who are inclined to worry if they have the Coronavirus can stop worrying.  :)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 03, 2020, 02:59:58 PM
I started sneezing a few days ago and now have a runny nose and sore throat.

 8)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 03, 2020, 03:21:39 PM
I started sneezing a few days ago and now have a runny nose and sore throat.

 8)

I think I'll take to 'swilling' my throat, on a 1/2 hourly interval, with strong alcohol.....just in case..... ;)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 04:57:38 PM
Chinese New Year is a very important market for worldwide sales of seafood to China. Local prices to fishermen for rock lobster have locally dropped by about half to $10.50lb . Lobster are shipped live and canceling the holiday celebration has undoubtably left importers holding large supplies. Lobster and Dungeness  crab are seasonal fisheries and so a price drop and demand destruction will hurt local fishermen. Aquaculture is also affected but aquaculture can hold off processing and still sell their fish when conditions improve. Wild caught fisheries lose their season , Calif. Dungeness crab was already operating on a truncated season because whale entanglement issues in Monterey Bay and low meat to shell ratios.
 https://www.intrafish.com/markets/live-updates-chinas-coronavirus-chaos-sucks-in-salmon-shrimp-lobster/2-1-746616
^ Related, from the other coast:

Nova Scotia’s Lobster Industry Fears Prolonged Effects of cCoronavirus Outbreak as Exports Halted, Prices Drop
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nova-scotias-lobster-industry-fears-prolonged-effects-of-coronavirus/

The coronavirus outbreak is causing job losses at seafood plants and hitting lobster dealers on Nova Scotia’s south shore, as cargo flights to China are grounded and the price of the province’s most valuable shellfish tumbles.

A month ago, China appeared to be a land of endless opportunity for Nova Scotia’s $1-billion lobster industry, with fishers collecting record returns for their catches and exports to the Asian country growing to historic levels

Then, as travel restrictions and lockdowns in some cities were imposed in China in an effort to contain the virus, known as 2019-nCoV, lobster orders dried up almost overnight. The shore price, or price paid to lobster fishers for their catch, fell from a record high of $10.50 a pound to $8 a pound on Nova Scotia’s south shore last week, and is expected to keep falling.

About 65 per cent of Mr. Cotter’s lobsters are shipped live to China, which has left him scrambling to find work for his 20 employees. Other smaller seafood processors in the province have already begun issuing layoff notices.

At the Halifax Stanfield International Airport Authority, the main regional hub to ship live seafood to China, planes are sitting on the ground, unable to move their cargo. Each of those cargo flights can carry up to 100 tonnes of live lobster when full, which means there’s a lot of extra lobster sitting in salt-water storage tanks in Nova Scotia right now.

While the Lobster Council of Canada is urging calm, some captains are bracing for an extended downturn, cancelling orders for new boats and holding off on buying new gear. With lobster seasons in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Newfoundland set to reopen within a few months, there’s worried more shellfish will soon be dumped onto an already flooded market.

“People don’t realize how much this is hurting us, big time. We can’t sit on all those lobsters," he said. “The price is going to keep going down. If we don’t have China, I don’t know what’s going to happen. Its put a chaos into the whole industry.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2020, 05:00:56 PM
I started sneezing a few days ago and now have a runny nose and sore throat.

 8)
Time to start a false science rumour about how these new viruses can be transmitted electronically - developed by Big Pharma - sick people = big profits..

Not so much "Shared Humanity" as "Shared With Humanity".
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on February 03, 2020, 05:11:34 PM
I find it interesting that this thread, covering one infectious disease, in a matter of days, has accumulated more posts than its parent thread, covering all infectious diseases, accumulated in a matter of years.

...
This thread has really brought the anti-science doomer contingent out of the woodwork.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on February 03, 2020, 05:22:42 PM
The first new hospital in Wuhan was completed yesterday.

https://www.france24.com/en/20200203-coronavirus-china-builds-hospital-in-10-days

>60,000 sq. ft., 1,000 beds and 30 intensive care wards.
The 2nd new hospital won't be finished until Feb. 5th.

I've no doubt that we in the western world will be able to match and surpass these efforts.
[SNARK/]
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 03, 2020, 05:32:47 PM
I find it interesting that this thread, covering one infectious disease, in a matter of days, has accumulated more posts than its parent thread, covering all infectious diseases, accumulated in a matter of years.

...
This thread has really brought the anti-science doomer contingent out of the woodwork.

Also the conspiracy kooks...just have to skip by that shit.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 03, 2020, 05:41:14 PM
I find it interesting that this thread, covering one infectious disease, in a matter of days, has accumulated more posts than its parent thread, covering all infectious diseases, accumulated in a matter of years.

...
This thread has really brought the anti-science doomer contingent out of the woodwork.

Edmountain,

Take a breath. Preparation and planning around disasters, and catastrophes isn’t doomerism. Suggesting it is is foolish or worse.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 05:44:26 PM
‘Striking’ Coronavirus Mutations Found Within One Family Cluster, Chinese Scientists Say
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3048772/striking-coronavirus-mutations-found-within-one-family-cluster

Chinese scientists say they have detected “striking” mutations in a new coronavirus that may have occurred during transmission between family members.

While the effects of the mutations on the virus are not known, they do have the potential to alter the way the virus behaves.

Researchers studying a cluster of infections within a family in the southern province of Guangdong said the genes of the virus went through some significant changes as it spread within the family.

Viruses mutate all the time, but most changes are synonymous or “silent”, having little effect on the way the virus behaves. Others, known as nonsynonymous substitutions, can alter biological traits, allowing them to adapt to different environments.

Two nonsynonymous changes took place in the viral strains isolated from the family, according to new study by professor Cui Jie and colleagues from the Institut Pasteur of Shanghai.

This case indicated “viral evolution may have occurred during person-to-person transmission”, Cui wrote in the paper published in journal National Science Review on January 29.


Quote
...  Most of changes in ORF8 and S appeared in the last half of January 2020, while ORF1ab and ORF7a were from first half. Strikingly, same nonsynonymous changes were found in the S and ORF8 of a familial cluster case reported from Guangdong, i.e. L84S (Leu replaced by Ser at amino acid position 84) in three members and H49Y (His by Tyr) in two, indicating viral evolution may have occurred during person-to-person transmission. ...

Cui’s team also detected a total of 17 nonsynonymous mutations from cases around the country between December 30 and late January, they wrote.

A study led by University of Minnesota researcher Li Fang predicted that a single mutation at a specific spot in the genome could significantly increase the virus’s ability to bind with cells on the surface of the human respiratory system, according to their paper published in the Journal of Virology on January 29.

Quote
... Compared to previously isolated SARS-CoV strains, 2019-nCoV likely uses human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) less efficiently than human SARS-CoV (year 2002), but more efficiently than human SARS-CoV (year 2003). Because ACE2-binding affinity has been shown to be one of the most important determinants of SARS-CoV infectivity, 2019-nCoV has evolved the capability to infect humans and some capability to transmit among humans. Alarmingly, our data predict that a single N501T mutation (corresponding to the S487T mutation in SARS-CoV) may significantly enhance the binding affinity between 2019-nCoV RBD and human ACE2. Thus, 2019-nCoV evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergency of novel mutations at the 501 position (to a lesser extent, also the 494 position). ...

Open Access: Xiaoman Wei, Xiang Li, Jie Cui, Evolutionary Perspectives on Novel Coronaviruses Identified in Pneumonia Cases in China (https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwaa009/5717501?searchresult=1), National Science Review, 29 January 2020

Open Access: Yushun Wan, Jian Shang, Rachel Graham, Ralph S. Baric, Fang Li, Receptor recognition by novel coronavirus from Wuhan: An analysis based on decade-long structural studies of SARS (http://Receptor recognition by novel coronavirus from Wuhan: An analysis based on decade-long structural studies of SARS), Journal of VirologyJanuary 29, 2020.

-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------

Coronavirus Tally in Epicentre Wuhan May be ‘Just the Tip of the Iceberg’
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048792/coronavirus-tally-epicentre-wuhan-may-be-just-tip-iceberg

https://youtu.be/gRtpXPKd6Zc

... Some medical experts have expressed concern that the real number could be much higher because cases are only classified as confirmed once a patient has twice tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus. Given that there is also a shortage of coronavirus testing kits, the figure could be much lower than it should be.

Professor David Hui Shu-cheong, a respiratory medicine expert from Chinese University of Hong Kong, said the official tally in Wuhan could be “just the tip of the iceberg” because it only reflected the acute cases where patients were admitted to hospital.

“There are many community cases that remain undiagnosed – unlike in Hong Kong, where cases are more carefully handled, including the mild ones. Of the 15 confirmed cases [in Hong Kong], 10 of [the patients] didn’t even need to be put on oxygen,” Hui said.

... Frontline doctors in Wuhan confirmed that there was a limited number of testing kits available, and only a small number of “fortunate” patients who tested positive would be admitted to hospitals and receive treatment.

A doctor at the Union Hospital in Wuhan, who declined to be identified, said staff could only test about 100 patients a day, and they had to wait 48 hours for the results.

Quote
“When the National Health Commission announces the numbers, they’re already two days old,” ... “We also have to turn away patients with mild symptoms, knowing that many of them will return later [when their condition worsens]. But we don’t have the space in the testing centre, or the hospital beds.”

... “There have also been many patients who died of undifferentiated respiratory and undiagnosed pneumonia symptoms in Wuhan since December – before the virus testing kits were made available,” Tsang said.

“These cases should have been investigated and counted [in the tally] if confirmed. These are factors pointing to inaccurate reporting of the official figures,” he said.

... A video apparently filmed in No 5 Wuhan hospital went viral showing body bags in a bus, and a man weeping next to his dead father. In the video, the person filming says: “So many people just died. There are so many dead bodies … they are still moving bodies.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-dozens-more-deaths-chinese-province-centre-outbreak-hubei

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksuThUZQLnc
There are over 33 hospitals in Wuhan!

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus: At Least Three Cases Among 4,000 Passengers on China-Vietnam Cruise, Doctor Says
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048784/coronavirus-least-three-cases-among-4000-passengers-china

Coronavirus confirmed in at least three passengers who sailed from Guangzhou to Vietnam, with two further cases suspected

Cruise ship containing more than 4,000 passengers sailed on January 19 for five nights, before ferrying new passengers to Hong Kong


(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2020/02/03/deffa874-466d-11ea-befc-ef9687daaa85_image_hires_214401.jpg)

The five-night “Impressions of Vietnam” cruise typically docks in tourist hotspots including Da Nang, Ha Long Bay and Nha Trang.

“There was a clear risk of cross-contagion on board the cruise ship,” said the doctor, who declined to be named as they are not authorised to speak to the media. But the doctor said he decided to disclose the information out of concern that thousands of passengers from the same cruise were at large.

On Sunday, authorities in Zhaoqing city in northern Guangdong said that one resident who had taken the same cruise had been diagnosed with coronavirus on Saturday. There were 108 Hubei residents on the ship, the authority said, including 28 from Wuhan, the epicentre of a coronavirus outbreak.

-----------------------------

Not One But Four Tests Later, Chinese Man Finally Confirmed With Coronavirus
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048748/not-one-four-tests-later-chinese-man-finally-confirmed

Four tests were needed to confirm a case of the new deadly coronavirus in northern China, highlighting the difficulty of screening for the previously unknown illness, which has spread throughout the world.

The patient, a 55-year-old railway worker living Tianjin, a megacity next to the capital of Beijing, was identified as a potential case in mid-January because he had been in “close contact” with a number of infected patients in the city, according to the local health commission.

On January 19, the man developed a fever and, a week later, he went to hospital and was tested twice for the virus. The results were negative and he was quarantined at home.

He had fever again on January 27, but the third test the next day again indicated that he was not infected.

It was only until January 30, when he was tested again that he was confirmed as infected, making him Tianjin’s 28th case.

The health commission said that up to three tests had been required to confirm an infection in other patients.

----------------------------------

Coronavirus: Death Toll Passes SARS Virus as Dozens More Die in Wuhan
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-dozens-more-deaths-chinese-province-centre-outbreak-hubei

Chinese state media reported 57 new deaths on Monday, all but one in Wuhan, the capital of the central province of Hubei which has been under lockdown for almost two weeks as authorities try to contain the outbreak.

The foreign ministry issued an urgent appeal for protective medical equipment as the total number of casualties reached 361, surpassing deaths in mainland China caused by the 2002-03 Sars virus. The number of infections also jumped, passing 17,200.

“What China urgently needs at present are medical masks, protective suits and safety goggles,” the foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying told a press briefing.

----------------------------------------

Coronavirus: Japan Quarantines Cruise Ship that Called at Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3048795/coronavirus-japan-quarantines-cruise-ship-called-hong-kong

Several dozen quarantine officers are checking the health of all the 2,500 passengers and 1,000 crew members, health authorities said

An 80-year-old man from Hong Kong was diagnosed with the virus after his return there on the cruise ship from Japan

The man flew to Japan from China on January 17 and left Yokohama near Tokyo on the Diamond Princess cruise ship on January 20 before arriving in Hong Kong on January 25.

(https://images.r.cruisecritic.com/news/2018/05/diamond-princess.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 03, 2020, 06:07:51 PM
Peak Prosperity speaks again (evidence of post-symptomatic viral load):
Coronavirus: How Bad Will It Get?
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-how-bad-will-it-get/
Quote
The official data on the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to suggest a geometric growth rate.
Which explains why more and more infectious disease experts are now openly calling the virus a full-blown global pandemic.
So how bad might things get?
It’s worth noting at this point that the data we do have, mostly from the Chinese government, is still scant and suspect. Many think the situation is China is worse than is being reported — potentially much worse.
Frustratingly, the Western press seems bent on downplaying the coronavirus threat, many trying to convince us that the standard flu is more dangerous. Which is NOT true, at least in terms of survivability.
So, we must continue to educate ourselves as best we can.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 06:14:27 PM
Chinese Military Takes Control of Medical Supplies in Wuhan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048778/coronavirus-chinese-military-takes-control-medical-supplies

A People’s Liberation Army logistics team of 260 officers, with 130 military trucks, started delivering basic supplies on Sunday, according to state broadcaster CCTV.

It said they delivered 200 tonnes of supplies to supermarkets in the Hubei province city of 11 million people on the first day.

A source close to the PLA, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said the logistics team was there to make sure donations to charity organisations like the Red Cross Society reached their intended recipients.

“The Beijing leadership realised that almost all the donation points in Hubei and Wuhan have had delivery problems, that there are some opportunists using this crisis to make money,” the military source said.

He gave the example of donors in Shandong province who claimed the 350 tonnes of cabbage they sent to Hubei had not been delivered to families in need, but had instead been found on sale in local supermarkets.

... A medical source, who also did not want to be identified, said “other troops have actually been sent to deliver and control the use of medical supplies in Wuhan hospitals since January 22” because of the supply problems.

The source said there was a chronic shortage of medical and protective supplies in Wuhan hospitals, partly because many doctors, nurses and other staff had taken masks and other supplies for their personal use amid growing fears over the spread of the new virus.

Chinese media have reported that desperate health workers – who are at high risk of infection without effective protection such as masks and suits – had been appealing online for more supplies. Meanwhile, local officials in Wuhan were found to have sent drivers to the Red Cross to collect boxes of surgical masks – known as N95 respirators – for their families’ use.

Macau-based military observer Antony Wong Dong said the situation in Wuhan could be seen as partial implementation of martial law, as the city’s main sources of medical and essential supplies were under military control.

----------------------------

Coronavirus: 30 Hong Kong Families Under Home Quarantine To Get Tracking Wristbands
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048791/coronavirus-30-hong-kong-families-under-home

Names of families’ residential buildings will also be posted on the Department of Health’s website

Health officials urge people not to worry about possible infection, saying cases are low risk

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2020/02/03/10db45b4-466a-11ea-befc-ef9687daaa85_image_hires_230716.JPG)

----------------------------------------------

People desperate for treatment started descending on a new hospital in Wuhan on Monday that was built within 10 days to fight the coronavirus outbreak. But with workers still trying to finish its construction, many potential patients were turned away.

Road checkpoints were set up to screen cars heading to the hospital. A sign at one read, “Only diagnosed patients transferred from other hospitals can be admitted.” Officers at that checkpoint told sick people and their relatives to instead call China’s emergency number.

One man, Xue Ying, was driving toward the hospital with his cousin, who had been tested for the coronavirus and was awaiting the results.

Mr. Xue believes his mother died from the coronavirus, but they could not secure a bed in a hospital and she was never tested for it. His aunt and uncle were also in a hospital.

“I can’t afford to lose anyone else,” he said. ...

https://youtu.be/l2QfufpwfdY
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 06:27:22 PM
Buried in the Lede: Chinese Markets Plunge and Virus Continues to Spread
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-as-china-markets-plunge-and-virus-continues-to-spread-beijing-praises/

Shares traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell more than 8 per cent Monday – a contraction of roughly US$400-billion – as investor fears overrode a concerted effort by government-affiliated institutions to prop up shares. It may take hundreds of billions of dollars in government financial support to bring stability back to the markets, one scholar warned, as the developing health crisis – which has now killed 361 in China – takes on sharper economic and political dimensions.

The plunge in stock markets defied heavy spending by state-controlled investors in an effort to “help combat negative feelings and anxiety,” said Zhao Xijun, deputy director of the School of Finance at Renmin University.

...  the market pessimism overwhelmed even the powerful tools wielded by Beijing. To arrest falling markets may take as much as five times the four trillion yuan – $750-billion in today’s dollars – used by China to shield its economy from the 2008 financial crisis, said Wang Fuzhong, a scholar at the Central University of Finance and Economics. That would be $3 Trillion Dollars.

“The virus has seriously damaged China's production, consumption, exports, imports and investment. It’s like a lethal strike against our country,” said Prof. Wang.

“The most terrible fact is that many small businesses will die,” he said. What’s happening is “not just a short-term phenomenon. It’s a long-term downturn. The effects of this epidemic are very profound and won’t easily be fixed.“

... “The interruption of supply chains could have a snowball effect if stocks of essential electronic components from China are depleted,” ING economists Timme Spakman and Rico Luman wrote Monday.

“And this isn’t necessarily a temporary slowdown. The coronavirus could potentially impact the annual level of world trade in 2020, as it’s not certain that factories and logistics will be able to catch up and fully compensate for earlier delays, given the limited capacity.”

----------------------------------------

Super Spreader: China Ally Pakistan Resumes Flights Despite Outbreak Fears
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3048790/coronavirus-all-weather-ally-pakistan-bucks-trend-and-resumes

The move comes as dozens of global airlines have halted flights to and from China over fears of the outbreak’s spread

Some 28,000 to 30,000 Pakistanis are living in China, and more than 500 nationals are believed to be in Wuhan, where the virus originated

... The decision was questioned by medical experts in the country, where investment in health care has been woefully lacking for decades.

“Pakistan is not capable of treating the coronavirus,” said Athar Niaz Rana, a senior medical practitioner at Islamabad’s Shifa International Hospitals.

“We don’t have any facility to properly test suspected cases.”

--------------------------------------

Robots Don't Get Sick: Huawei, Chinese Chip Makers Keep Factories Humming Despite Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3048763/huawei-chinese-chip-makers-keep-factories-humming-despite-coronavirus

Huawei, the world’s largest telecoms equipment supplier, restarted operations at its Dongguan factory on February 3

Chip foundry SMIC and memory maker YMTC kept plants running through the Lunar New Year holiday

-----------------------------------------

Peugeot Parts Supplier at Risk of Missing Overseas Orders Amid Viral Outbreak Gets a Legal Lifeline from Beijing
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3048767/peugeot-parts-supplier-risk-missing-overseas-orders-amid

The agency that promotes China’s foreign trade issued a force majeure certificate to the Zhejiang-based manufacturer in a bid to forestall any contractual claims against it

The rapid spread of the coronavirus has heightened the risk of contractual defaults by the country’s exporters
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 03, 2020, 06:35:13 PM
The curve of cases that were being discovered per continent daily has turned.  There are now 186 cases outside of Mainland China, 153 International if you don't include Taiwan.

The vast majority of international cases were from individuals who traveled to Wuhan.  I will watch for cases to show up with no known contacts or history of travel to China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 06:39:16 PM
Up date 1800 Zulu.
4690 cases.
106 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
now
17,491.
362 .
You think your country is going to do better at containment ?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 03, 2020, 06:49:59 PM
It's a special kind of virus. Number of infected people tripled in the last week. And every day something like 50 people die.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 07:24:19 PM
Wuhan Coronavirus Looks Increasingly Like a Pandemic, Experts Say
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/health/coronavirus-pandemic-china.html

The Wuhan coronavirus spreading from China is now likely to become a pandemic that circles the globe, according to many of the world’s leading infectious disease experts.

The prospect is daunting. A pandemic — an ongoing epidemic on two or more continents — may well have global consequences, despite the extraordinary travel restrictions and quarantines now imposed by China and other countries, including the United States.

... “It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.

The biggest uncertainty now, experts said, is how many people around the world will die. SARS killed about 10 percent of those who got it, and MERS now kills about one of three.

The 1918 “Spanish flu” killed only about 2.5 percent of its victims — but because it infected so many people and medical care was much cruder then, 20 million to 50 million died.

The mortality rate for known cases of the Wuhan coronavirus has been running about 2 percent, although that is likely to drop as more tests are done and more mild cases are found.

This looks far more like H1N1’s spread than SARS, and I am increasingly alarmed,” said Dr. Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Even 1 percent mortality would mean 10,000 deaths in each million people.”

... It’s unclear exactly how accurate tests done in overwhelmed Chinese laboratories are. On the one hand, Chinese state media have reported test kit shortages and processing bottlenecks, which could produce an undercount.

But Dr. Lipkin said he knew of one lab running 5,000 samples a day, which might produce some false-positive results, inflating the count. “You can’t possibly do quality control at that rate,” he said.

... Epidemiological modeling released Friday by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control estimated that 75 percent of infected people reaching Europe from China would still be in the incubation periods upon arrival, and therefore not detected by airport screening, which looks for fevers, coughs and breathing difficulties.

But if thermal cameras miss victims who are beyond incubation and actively infecting others, the real number of missed carriers may be higher than 75 percent.

... The virus’s most vulnerable target is Africa, many experts said. More than 1 million expatriate Chinese work there, mostly on mining, drilling or engineering projects. Also, many Africans work and study in China and other countries where the virus has been found.

If anyone on the continent has the virus now, “I’m not sure the diagnostic systems are in place to detect it,” said Dr. Daniel Bausch, head of scientific programs for the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, who is consulting with the W.H.O. on the outbreak.

(https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/15116066/2020/01/BD487D3E6A624D2BA036089DCF5E3721.jpg)
CBS National News in the US

It is possible that the Wuhan coronavirus will fade out as weather warms. Many viruses, like flu, measles and norovirus, thrive in cold, dry air. The SARS outbreak began in winter, and MERS transmission also peaks then, though that may be related to transmission in newborn camels.

Four mild coronaviruses cause about a quarter of the nation’s common colds, which also peak in winter.

But even if an outbreak fades in June, there could be a second wave in the fall, as has occurred in every major flu pandemic, including those that began in 1918 and 2009.

-----------------------------------

WHO Says Prepare for Local Coronavirus Outbreaks in Other Countries
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coronavirus-update-213-people-have-died-countries-recommend-against-travel-and-pilots-sue-over-continued-flights-to-china-2020-01-31
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 03, 2020, 08:04:27 PM
---------------------------------

A Third Coronavirus Case Has Been Confirmed in India
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

A third case of the Wuhan coronavirus has been confirmed in India, authorities said.

The case was identified in the southern state of Kerala, according to a Facebook post from Kerala Health Minister KK Shailaja.

Shailaja said the patient is a student who had returned from Wuhan. The individual has been admitted to a district hospital in Kerala and is in stable condition.

(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/d5aff032-e767-4dca-acb0-8b9d2287dd06.jpg)

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus Outbreak Overwhelms Shopping Agents with Online Mask Orders
https://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-social/article/3048749/bigger-black-friday-coronavirus-outbreak-overwhelms-shopping

The new coronavirus outbreak has spurred a surge in orders unmatched by what’s typically seen during the post-Thanksgiving shopping bonanza, according to one company.

“This week’s merchandise volume and inquiries have skyrocketed all of a sudden,” wrote Hong Kong logistics company Buyandship in a Facebook post. “It’s a few times more than the annual Black Friday shopping season.”

The company says over the past week, it helped clients ship home around 15,000 boxes of face masks from around the world, equivalent to an estimated 7.5 million individual masks. On Thursday, it asked customers not to mail more purchases to its warehouse in Japan, which has “exceeded its maximum capacity.”

A search for the term “mask” on Taobao yields a message that says masks are being “prioritized for disease-fighting efforts on the frontline” and are therefore in short supply. On JD.com, most listings for surgical masks are marked as “preorder” and not available for immediate purchase.

---------------------------------------

CDC Working to Provide Virus Testing Capabilities Across the US
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-03-20-intl-hnk/index.html

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is currently working to provide diagnostic testing for the virus to health departments across the United States.

The process is extremely expedited and our colleagues at [the US Food and Drug Administration] have been working with us closely ever since we made the plan that we were going to do this in this way,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during a call with reporters on Monday.

(https://dynaimage.cdn.cnn.com/cnn/digital-images/org/07926f63-41d6-44d4-adc6-b41d3b7065e4.jpg)


-----------------------------------------------

China is Arresting People for Coronavirus Fake News
https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3048642/china-arresting-people-coronavirus-fake-news

More than 250 people have been punished in China for spreading rumors related to the novel coronavirus, and its undermining trust in official sources

----------------------------------------------

Trump Says U.S. Has 'Shut Down' Coronavirus Threat
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa/trump-says-us-has-shut-down-coronavirus-threat-china-shuns-us-help-idUSKBN1ZW0OJ

... Trump appeared to downplay concerns about the impact in the United States of the flu-like virus that has killed 350 people in China and spread to more than two dozen countries, telling Fox television in an interview, “We’re gonna see what happens, but we did shut it down, yes.”

“We can’t have thousands of people coming in who may have this problem - the coronavirus,” Trump told Fox during a short interview broadcast on Sunday. He said U.S. officials had offered China “tremendous help” in dealing with the epidemic.

From the mind of the Stable Genius:

(https://images.gawker.com/xqwrsa7dp4gm3nsd01nv/original.png)
He's talking about American Doctors, Nurses and US Army Medical Corp.

(https://blogs.plos.org/speakingofmedicine/files/2014/10/trump-1.png)

Infallible: President Stable Genius Congratulates Wrong State After Chiefs Win Super Bowl (https://gizmodo.com/president-stable-genius-congratulates-wrong-state-after-1841424393)

Donald Trump, the dumbest president in modern American history, congratulated the Kansas City Chiefs last night after they beat the San Francisco 49ers to win the Super Bowl, tweeting, “You represented the Great State of Kansas and, in fact, the entire USA, so very well.”

The only problem? The Kansas City Chiefs are from Missouri.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 03, 2020, 08:39:11 PM
It's spreading fast. https://babylonbee.com/news/breaking-health-officials-quarantine-portland-to-prevent-spread-of-communism?fbclid=IwAR0NCgCcBZ2VJxoVKHEymlBom5kPjBZmKLIg7LflaeIXAPWM8MWAVz_ZO2Q
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 03, 2020, 08:58:31 PM
Coronavirus is not the cure for party politics.  We are.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on February 03, 2020, 09:37:37 PM
Coronavirus is not the cure for party politics.  We are.
But might be a (temporary) cure for unbridled economic growth......

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/03/business/economy/SARS-coronavirus-economic-impact-china.html
SARS Stung the Global Economy. The Coronavirus Is a Greater Menace.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 03, 2020, 09:41:45 PM
Brace for Impact: Global Pandemic Already Baked In
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/brace-for-impact-global-pandemic.html
Quote
Here's a summary of what is known or credibly estimated about the 2019-nCoV virus as of January 31, 2019:
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 03, 2020, 10:31:17 PM
Vox_mundi, thank you for frequently updating this thread with reliable and timely news. I find this to be my best source for CoV developments.

Tom - you may have realized this already but your "collapse" sources are uniformly biased. They will probably be right eventually (broken clocks etc ) but when every analysis is biased the value is greatly reduced.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 10:33:03 PM
Two more cases in Germany total now 12.
I can not find conformation other than on the John Hopkins site.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 03, 2020, 10:33:44 PM
Quote
Tom - you may have realized this already but your "collapse" sources are uniformly biased. They will probably be right eventually (broken clocks etc ) but when every analysis is biased the value is greatly reduced.
Can you point me to some sources which you do not consider biased?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 03, 2020, 10:38:43 PM
I can't really say who's not biased, but after reading a few articles off a source I can tell which one is biased. I know you mean well - I love good sources who provide non-mainstream analysis, but recently I haven't read ones that justified the time investment. Keep on posting them, but be aware they give the wrong inpressions.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 11:00:24 PM
Personally we know as much as anyone and more than most.
I found Sam's insights informative and logical .
John Hopkins keeps a count that is reliable.
Watch the numbers they will tell you how concerned you should be .
At the moment the direct health risk is negligible for almost all of us .
It is already impacting trade and tourism here in NZ I expect more finical impacts to emerge.

If you insist on Stocking Up on supply's I suggest hand sterilizer will be your best protection.
 Not something I usually have or use as I believe you do more harm to your immune system obsessively washing with such an agent than you do good. I intend to buy some tomorrow.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on February 03, 2020, 11:47:02 PM
I also want to thank all the contributors, especially vox, sam and kiwi

but WTF is zulu????
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 03, 2020, 11:53:53 PM
Coordinated Universal Time= Zulu.
It means you just add your offset eslewise you need to know what time the person making the comment is operating on. It is + 13 hours Zulu  11:30am the forth  to me right now some time  tomorrow for most of you here

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 04, 2020, 12:26:18 AM
19,853 cases.
426 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

ps
I dropped giving the zulu time for the report when JH went onto hourly updates.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 12:54:56 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/2c130b6549d0f444639e1c94ebda9ffcacf82fba/0_0_1161_709/master/1161.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=1c0255d2155537548687ca764a9e2f18)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

---------------------------------

China Goes Back to Work After Lunar New Year, Will the Coronavirus Spread Even More Rapidly?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048780/china-goes-back-work-after-lunar-new-year-will-coronavirus

Authorities extended the Spring Festival break – initially set to run from January 24 to 30 – by three days, until Sunday, in an attempt to help contain the virus.

But at least 24 of China’s 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, including Beijing and Shanghai, have told businesses not to reopen before February 10 at the earliest. Most organisations except those serving daily needs, such as utility companies, and medical equipment and pharmaceutical firms, remained closed.

Suzhou, a manufacturing hub in eastern China, had postponed the return to work until at least February 8 before the government’s announcement last week.

After lockdowns and quarantines were enforced during the holiday season to contain the spread of infections, a return to normality will raise fresh fears

------------------------------

Brazil to Declare Emergency and Evacuate Citizens from Wuhan
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/3048813/coronavirus-brazil-declare-emergency-and-evacuate-citizens

President Jair Bolsonaro said last week that repatriating Brazilians from Wuhan would not be “opportune” as it could put the population back home at risk. But he changed his mind over the weekend when Brazilians in Wuhan posted a video appealing to Bolsonaro to get them out.

A chartered plane would be sent to pick up 40 of the 55 Brazilians in Wuhan who have asked to be evacuated from the city at the centre of a coronavirus outbreak, Mandetta said. They would be quarantined for 18 days at a military base, he said.

----------------------------

British Evacuee Falls Ill During Flight from China
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/03/coronavirus-british-evacuee-falls-ill-flight-from-china

Passenger, one of 11 who landed in UK on Sunday, has been taken to hospital for tests

-------------------------------

I took SteveFPMD advice and got a couple of bottles of Grey Goose. And there's a bottle of Krystal in the freezer ... strictly for medicinal uses, of course  ;)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 04, 2020, 02:25:12 AM
Over 20,000 now.

Is there a bench mark that will cause some kind of special reaction in the world governments or markets?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 04, 2020, 05:18:28 AM
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a20501000000&bid=0015&act=view&list_no=365966&tag=&nPage=1

Current outbreaks of new coronaviruses in Korea (1 report as of 10:00 on February 4)

-1 patient (16th) additional confirmation-

□ The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CEO Eun Eun-kyung) said that as of February 4, 20, 10 am, an additional patient was identified as of the previous day.

 ○ The 16th patient (42-year-old, Korean) entered Korea on January 19 after traveling to Thailand and had symptoms such as chills from the evening of January 25, and he was treated until February 2.

  -On February 3, he visited Chonnam National University Hospital and was quarantined to be excluded from the new coronavirus infection.

Looks like South Korea's 16th NCOV infection was picked up in Thailand, which has 19 official cases.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Jones on February 04, 2020, 07:20:20 AM
The Guardian's breaking news page has a couple of interesting snippets- a death in Hong Kong, cases in Fiji, Hubei cases equalling those in the rest of China. Updated to 0600 Zulu...https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 04, 2020, 08:22:45 AM
Total Confirmed
20,626
Total Deaths
427
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 04, 2020, 09:10:12 AM
Health authorities have asked Seoul for information about a Korean woman found infected with the novel coronavirus after visiting Thailand and with no record of travel to China.

https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1850319/korean-woman-caught-virus-in-thailand
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: morganism on February 04, 2020, 10:16:48 AM
Universal and reusable virus deactivation system for respiratory protection

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep39956

"Here, we report the development of a universal, reusable virus deactivation system by functionalization of the main fibrous filtration unit of surgical mask with sodium chloride salt. The salt coating on the fiber surface dissolves upon exposure to virus aerosols and recrystallizes during drying, destroying the pathogens. When tested with tightly sealed sides, salt-coated filters showed remarkably higher filtration efficiency than conventional mask filtration layer, and 100% survival rate was observed in mice infected with virus penetrated through salt-coated filters. Viruses captured on salt-coated filters exhibited rapid infectivity loss compared to gradual decrease on bare filters. Salt-coated filters proved highly effective in deactivating influenza viruses regardless of subtypes and following storage in harsh environmental conditions."

(Don't know if this has held up, or is replicated)


Flu trackers site used to be pretty good, but was abandoned by the original folk. They left it up, and has been used as a central site anyway.

https://flutrackers.com/forum/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 04, 2020, 12:33:57 PM
First, I would like to post this analysis from a poster on the Peak Oil forum who goes by the nom de cyber of EnergyUnlimited:
Quote
These official numbers from China are now plain nonsense so they may be mentioned only for a formal record but are not to be taken seriously.
It is easy to work it out that they lie and increasingly easy to estimate true numbers.
Several nations have rescued their citizens from Wuhan.
Upon arrival to homelands 2-3% of these people are being found infected after testing (2-4 people per one lot of 100-150 of those rescued).
It is reasonable to expect that due to a wider social networks of locals their rate of infection is higher than one of foreigners.
Don't know how high so will settle with conservative 3%, eg upper limit of foreigners.
So lets say that in Wuhan alone there is now 7 millions of people (because 4 millions went on holiday to celebrate lunar new year and cannot come back because city is cordoned off).
So 3% of them is 210 000 of infected people and that is conservative estimate.
As per number of fatalities there are plenty of anecdotal remarks that each hospital in Wuhan is sending 30-50 body bags for cremation.
So probably we are now getting about 500-700 fatalities daily in Wuhan alone.
These are more realistic numbers showing true scope of epidemics.
So numbers are underestimated by Chinese bureaucrats at least 10 fold and more likely 20-fold.
Pointless to carry on believing in their lies because if we do then we may well begin to believe that North Korea is the wealthiest and happiest nation on the world.

China has a prevalent culture of secrecy and lying.
Lying is the way how business is done there. My wife who is Chinese does not see anything wrong with this as it makes society working smoother and it is well meant lying intended for common good.
So even central government doesn't know real numbers related to epidemic because provincial governments are lying in reports to make them looking better.
They can get good estimates though.

Also there are not enough testing kits, there are reports of people with severe symptoms often getting 2-3 negatives before finally testing positive within days and that is because tests are underdeveloped products thrown on market in haste due to emergency.
To be declared infected you need 2 consecutive positive results.
Many will die before getting officially sick.
Also even these official casualties are nearly exclusively from Hubei and that shows that either their health service is already broken and any hospital care is very inadequate or perhaps other provinces are better with lying comparing to Hubei.

Also, from John Xenakis:
4-Feb-20 World View -- China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200204.htm#e200204
Quote
China's Foreign Ministry blames America for coronavirus 'panic'
Social unrest in China
The Timeline for the coming months
The 'Black Swan' events after the Wuhan coronavirus

Chinese Officials Can’t Help Lying About the Wuhan Virus
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/03/wuhan-coronavirus-coverup-lies-chinese-officials-xi-jinping/
Quote
There’s no real new transparency. Instead, the old red lines have been temporarily erased in the wake of disaster, and the many talented and frustrated journalists in China are able to quickly occupy the new space created—until the authorities decide what can and cannot be said and the lines are drawn again. In the case of the coronavirus, the disruption may be such that the freedom lasts longer than usual—but it’s still ultimately temporary. Officials, on the other hand, persist unless unlucky enough to be scapegoated; as some sardonically noted this week, the man in charge of the port area of Tianjin that exploded is now a prominent member of the Hubei government.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SimonF92 on February 04, 2020, 12:57:28 PM
To study an illness you generally need access to the pathogen. Its possible to study a virus just by looking at it's genetic information in-silico (by computer), but it is much better to have the virus to hand.

I know first-hand that growing viruses in a lab is extremely challenging, as it is part of my skillset. It is even more challenging to grow a virus that is not normally grown in a lab.

To the best of my knowledge China has had labs which are able to stably propagate the virus for weeks.

Quite why they didn't share their virus with other academic groups worldwide is both shameful and baffling. It is possible this was done so their scientists could have "first dibs" on publications and breakthroughs. It took an Australian group playing catch-up before the samples were shared worldwide (from the Australian lab).
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: silkman on February 04, 2020, 01:01:53 PM
The MOH in Singapore has just reported a local transmission cluster associated with a Chinese health food shop that was popular with Chinese tourists. It includes a clear case of transmission from the first Singaporean infected to her Indonesian domestic worker. Worrying.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-reports-first-cases-of-local-transmission-4-out-of-6-new-cases-did-not

https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SimonF92 on February 04, 2020, 01:02:47 PM
Also, this paper came out which suggests that the virus has HIV-derived genetic information. They claim pretty sensationally that these shared motifs did not naturally occur.

This is basically them claiming that the virus was made by humans.

I discussed this with my colleagues when it came out. Were generally agreed that the spurious claims about the "uncanny" nature of the virus are pretty unprofessional, but nonetheless there is nothing to suggest the data itself is wrong.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 04, 2020, 01:17:35 PM
3.6 roentgen. Not great, not terrible.

Given my personal experience with government mortality data, there is a 50/50 that the data is horribly underreported.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 04, 2020, 01:55:49 PM
” 3.6 roentgen. Not great, not terrible.”

 :D Good comparison Archimid

Epidemic is still growing in Wuhan despite most of population staying tightly indoors for some time now.
This pretty much confirms our fears that the outbreak was much larger than the authorities let us know.

Holiday extension cannot continue forever meaning next week infected people will head back to their workplaces.

And we have first international cases with no direct link to Wuhan.

Not great, not terrible.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 04, 2020, 02:16:59 PM
Quote
This pretty much confirms our fears that the outbreak was much larger than the authorities let us know.

To me, the question is, did they tell the experts compiling data what they knew or what they wanted us to know? If the first one, then this is contained, even with every worrying new cases popping up. If the latter one, we might have already been exposed and not know it.

I hope the first one is mostly it, with a margin of error. They can't be so stupid as to play games with this.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 04, 2020, 03:19:00 PM
Yes they can be that stupid.
Look at this as four zones. Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and the rest of the world.
Wuhan is almost certainly going to be devastated.
Hubei will probably be devastated too.
China is in trouble but may be able to escape devastation.
The rest of the world actually is starting to look a bit hopeful. I may be speaking too soon but it does not seem to be growing as fast as I had expected by now. However, the economic impact of the measures needed to prevent global devastation from disease may itself devastate the economy.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 04, 2020, 03:53:25 PM
To me, the question is, did they tell the experts compiling data what they knew or what they wanted us to know? If the first one, then this is contained, even with every worrying new cases popping up. If the latter one, we might have already been exposed and not know it.

I hope the first one is mostly it, with a margin of error. They can't be so stupid as to play games with this.
Answer probably isn't black or white but different shades of grey.

Wuhan has been under quarantine since Jan 23rd, 12 days, and the coronavirus incubation period is on average 5 days. How come there is no peak in cases when everybody able to do so is staying indoors avoiding contact with other people? They all know virus is rampant.

The only answer I can think of is that the outbreak started earlier and spread wider than was publicly informed. Right now it's all over Wuhan.

Remember, we are only being told the number of confirmed cases and deaths confirmed to have been caused by the coronavirus.

I'm on the lines of the Vox article from last week https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet

In an authoritarian regime such as Communist China, it is not advisable to be the bearer of bad news. Also, bureaucracy is heavy and there's plenty of red tape. So most likely the local authorities have stayed quiet, downplayed the risk, stalled reactions and simply hoped for the problem to disappear. Maybe their superiors didn't want to send the message higher.

Remember Chernobyl?

It's likely they are still underreporting dubious cases, tests are not always available and testing is not 100% reliable.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 04, 2020, 04:11:11 PM
The youth of today eh?

https://twitter.com/ChronicOG_2nd/status/1224678349857001472
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 04, 2020, 04:34:50 PM
I hear this can be spread by excretion and/or inanimate objects. Is this so?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 04, 2020, 04:41:48 PM
First, I would like to post this analysis from a poster on the Peak Oil forum who goes by the nom de cyber of EnergyUnlimited:
Quote
...
So probably we are now getting about 500-700 fatalities daily in Wuhan alone.
...
An internet search (https://www.indexmundi.com/china/death_rate.html) reveals the death rate in China is typically 8/1,000/year.  Wuhan has a population of 11 million.  (Many residents may be out-of-town and cannot return, but many visitors from out-of-town cannot leave.) Therefore, about 88,000 people die in Wuhan every year, or about 240 people every day.  Now the tricky part.  I found a paper about India (https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0635) which indicated about 18% of deaths occur in hospitals.  Would it be about the same for the city of Wuhan?  Probably not, I'll guess that in a city, a much larger percentage of deaths occur in hospitals.  Also, many/most/all out-of-hospital deaths may be routed through "burial management centers (https://www.refworld.org/docid/5b2221ff4.html?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=d3fd84840c9c9ea25ce6bf608fcf99b5bf1fd3b0-1580829920-0-AVpxk6Hr_TYQlGJo73wkokInkzh-ClCBUBR4nZVPcy85uwsH8H3V2UdhF8nBocdWXteOnC5hUQ1Tm24LcDy-wxYxdoBRGU-0Ej6Tb2mRJyhrK-8E3a_dBK__KgIbX3RsSDmxEm5wNDymyZSUHHY2YwmQ7_SlB7nw8EBLlCMCOSm-GymcVOXY4Ok1cVng8g8A3Wku8hWiGegiP448-HhAwDeUD85p1C5d-HSX26kZGo8UmPmvg71N5WV5oV4T9p2G7JcRT3x1OhBBmwIteEOSSshiEaQiaZZA-qz_qeonoNi7)".  Would these be included in the purported "500"+ deaths in Wuhan? Probably.  Conclusion:  my sleuthing suggests about 250-500 deaths/day due to the coronavirus IF that "500-700 fatalities daily in Wuhan" is accurate. Yes, I'll have some salt (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170105160228.htm) with that.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 04, 2020, 05:07:58 PM
The MOH in Singapore has just reported a local transmission cluster associated with a Chinese health food shop that was popular with Chinese tourists. It includes a clear case of transmission from the first Singaporean infected to her Indonesian domestic worker. Worrying.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-reports-first-cases-of-local-transmission-4-out-of-6-new-cases-did-not

https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
From the same article, there's this disturbing anecdote:
Quote
On Tuesday, Malaysian health authorities also confirmed the first citizen to be infected with the coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 10. They said the 41-year-old Malaysian had travelled to Singapore for a meeting last month with colleagues from China - including one from Wuhan. But he showed symptoms only on Jan 29, nearly a week after he returned to Malaysia.
I honestly can't see how this quite contagious virus can be stopped with this kind of incubation period.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 05:39:59 PM
Domino Effect ...

-------------------------------

Hyundai Suspends Domestic Production Over China Outbreak
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-02-hyundai-domestic-production-china-outbreak.html

South Korea's largest automaker Hyundai Motor will suspend all domestic production because of a lack of parts due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, it said Tuesday.

The global car industry operates on tight supply lines and was thrown into turmoil when Japan's Fukushima earthquake and tsunami in 2011 knocked out a Renesas Electronics factory producing a vital and widely used computer chip.

The outbreak of the coronavirus had disrupted the supply of parts for Hyundai, the company said.

"Hyundai Motor has decided to suspend its production lines from operating at all of its plants in Korea," the carmaker said in a statement.

-----------------------------------------

Clock Ticking for Companies That Depend On China Imports
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-02-clock-companies-china-imports.html

... If much of industrial China remains on lockdown for the next few weeks - a very real possibility - Western retailers, auto companies and manufacturers that depend on Chinese imports will start to run out of the goods they depend on.

In order to meet deadlines for summer goods, retail experts say that Chinese factories would need to start ramping up production by March 15. If Chinese factories were instead to remain idle through May 1, it would likely cripple retailers' crucial back-to-school and fall seasons.

Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak hit hardest, is a center of automotive production. It's been closed off, along with neighboring cities, isolating more than 50 million people and bringing factories to a standstill.

So far, U.S. automakers haven't had to curb production for want of Chinese parts. But the clock is ticking , said David Closs, professor emeritus at Michigan State University's Department of Supply Chain Management.

"I would say it's weeks at the most,'' Closs said. "One to two to three weeks.''

The partial shutdown of Wuhan has already harmed the production of TV display panels and raised prices, according to a report by research group IHS Markit. The city has five factories making liquid crystal displays, known as LCDs, and organic light-emitting diodes, known as OLEDs, both of which are used for television and laptop monitors. China accounts for more than half of the global production of these display panels.

... Times have changed in ways that are not favorable to containing the economic damage. Back in 2003, during the SARS outbreak, China was the world's workshop for cheap goods—toys and sneakers, for instance. Now, China has moved up to sophisticated machine parts and electronics like LCDs. And it accounts for about 16% of global economic output, up significantly from just 4% in 2003. ...

----------------------------------------------

Coronavirus: 'We May Have No Clothes Left To Sell'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51357030

-------------------------------------------------

Virus Fears Prompt Shipping Restraints on Vessels From China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/virus-fears-prompt-asia-shipping-restrictions-ports-update

Vessels and trains coming from China are in focus as nations take steps to halt the spread of a deadly coronavirus that originated in the world’s second-biggest economy. Here’s a roundup of some of the latest efforts by authorities around Asia, including quarantines and checks.

Bloomberg is tracking the outbreak on the terminal and online.

---------------------------------------

New Zealand Loggers, U.S. Food Exporters Suffer from China's Virus Clampdown
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-supplychain/new-zealand-loggers-us-food-exporters-suffer-from-chinas-virus-clampdown-idUSKBN1ZY11B

(Reuters) - The economic impact of China’s coronavirus lockdown is being felt across the globe, with exporters, miners and manufacturers of everything from coal and timber to meat and fruit facing delays and potential shipment cancellations.

... For now, the effect is more pronounced for smaller items such as food and forestry products - bulk items like iron ore, fuel and coal have mainly automatic offloading and transfer to storage that has not been affected.

At Gisborne’s Eastland Port on the east coast of New Zealand’s North Island, log exports to China – the port’s main source of revenue – have been halted until further notice, while forestry workers across New Zealand have been told to go home. The port is the country’s second largest log exporter. (... good news for the forest)

Also, New Zealand’s NZ$300 million in annual lobster sales to China have also been badly hit. Local prices of rock lobster have nearly halved as exporters seek to offload stock and fishermen have stopped fresh landings, traders said.

... Compounding the impact of port congestion are the several city-wide lockdowns aimed at stopping the virus’ spread that are preventing people from getting to work.

That is leading to reduced staffing for all the necessary functions at typical entry ports, such as customs officers and freight-handling and inspection workers.

There are also reports of a shortage of pilots for tugboats, meaning large ships now take longer than normal to dock at certain ports.

The real problem now is the downstream receiving ports, such as (around) Shanghai and Ningbo,” said a logistics manager at Yingkou port in the northeastern province of Liaoning, a major iron ore and coal hub.

“What we heard from their report is that they don’t have enough people to drive trucks and boats to transfer goods out of the ports by road and by river. So they are having congestion and want us to slow down our pace to send vessels to them.”

The manager of a state-backed logistics firm in Ningbo said that the waiting time has swelled to “at least four days” to unload river barges due to the staffing shortages.

(https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/7/8415/8396/NingboCongestion.png)

---------------------------------------

Xi Jinping Warns Virus May Impact China’s Social Stability
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/xi-warns-virus-may-impact-china-s-stability-at-rare-meeting

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on all officials to quickly work together to contain a deadly new virus at a rare meeting of top leaders, saying the outcome would directly impact social stability in the country.

------------------------------

Coronavirus To Test Just How Reliant the World Is On Chinese Manufacturers, With Asia Braced for Shock Wave
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048950/coronavirus-test-just-how-reliant-world-chinese-manufacturers

With regions of China accounting for 80 per cent of exports on lockdown, factories around Asia are being forced into looking for alternative supplies

Workers trapped in China amid travel bans, while trade watchers as far afield as California wait for boats from China to stop arriving

The world’s second largest economy remains on lockdown, with factories in 14 provinces covering 70 per cent of China’s gross domestic product and 80 per cent of its exports ordered not to open until Monday at the earliest.

“Anything that limits the free movement of goods or people is bad for shipping,” said Tim Huxley, founder of the Hong Kong container freight shipper, Mandarin Shipping. “The expected demand decline in China is already being factored into prices of commodities and shipping rates. It’s very difficult to make any decisions while we’re still unclear about how long this is going to go on for.”

Some are sceptical as to whether manufacturing will resume as normal on Monday, given the virus is still spreading, albeit at a slower rate in recent days.

“Some entire factories may not reopen at all because their entire management and a good part of their operators are still blocked in Hubei province – and that is true of many factories,” said Renaud Anjoram, partner and CEO of manufacturing consultancy firm Sofeast.

Within mainland China, oil demand has dried up by 20 per cent, Bloomberg reported, amid a freeze in travel, while metal prices have plunged on consecutive days since markets reopened on Monday, a sign of expected weak demand in key industrial sectors.

All this means the optimism that followed the signing of a phase one US-China trade deal barely three weeks ago already feels like a distant memory. ...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 04, 2020, 05:42:18 PM
I hear this can be spread by excretion and/or inanimate objects. Is this so?

It will stay alive and spreadable on hard surfaces for at least 12 hrs (some say 48 hrs in the right conditions?) so there is a REAL need for frequent hand washing/sanitizing if in infected areas lest you introduce it to yourself via mouth/nose/eyes?

It appears quite large (400-500 nm?) so N95 type masks will provide protection from inhaling any atomised via coughing/sneezing.

Clothes can be 'hot washed' to clean(kill!) any unwelcome 'guests' and outdoor clothes can be 'sun bathed' to let the UV do the same job

Folk should focus on the hand washing most though.

You'd be surprised just how often a person touches/scratches/rubs their own face!
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: etienne on February 04, 2020, 05:44:38 PM
...
Chinese Officials Can’t Help Lying About the Wuhan Virus
...

We should acknowledge that they are dealing with a major crisis, and maybe reporting is not the first priority in Wuhan. I guess we are smart enough to understand it.

Even if the data is not perfect, I guess the ratios are more or less correct. I would say that the death/recovery ratio is pessimistic because easy cases are probably not counted at all.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 05:47:18 PM
Also, this paper came out which suggests that the virus has HIV-derived genetic information. They claim pretty sensationally that these shared motifs did not naturally occur.

This is basically them claiming that the virus was made by humans.

I discussed this with my colleagues when it came out. Were generally agreed that the spurious claims about the "uncanny" nature of the virus are pretty unprofessional, but nonetheless there is nothing to suggest the data itself is wrong.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Quick Retraction of a Faulty Coronavirus Paper Was a Good Moment for Science
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/

As fears of the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV continued to spread last Friday, an inflammatory new paper appeared on bioRxiv, a preprint server, where scientists post work that hasn’t been vetted.

Titled “Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag,” the paper claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. The use of the word “uncanny” in the title, together with “unlikely to be fortuitous” in the abstract, led some to think that the authors were suggesting the virus had somehow been engineered by humans.

The paper, from academic institutions in New Delhi, India, was critical and alarming, if true.

Except that it wasn’t.


... In a nutshell, commenters on bioRxiv and Twitter said, the author’s methods seemed rushed, and the findings were at most a coincidence. By Saturday morning, bioRxiv had placed a special warning on all papers about coronavirus. Later Saturday, the authors commented on their paper, saying they were withdrawing it. And on Sunday, a more formal retraction appeared: “This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results.”

Formal Retraction: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 04, 2020, 06:09:13 PM
Air freight out of China will be difficult even they get back to work next week. Because passenger flights are cancelled all the belly freight capacity is unavailable. To make matters worse many if not most freighters have cancelled flights also. I work in logistics and can confirm this is becoming a problem.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 04, 2020, 06:33:36 PM
I think the Chinese are  trying to honestly report numbers but it is a huge place and different regions will have different levels of response.
Translation 
People's Network
Quote
Yesterday at 18:25 from Weibo.weibo.com
[ # 福建 170 人 被 被 处理 为 不 被 防 力 CONTROL being ineffective # ] Fujian Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection has reported that since the outbreak, the problem of ineffective prevention and control of the epidemic has been held accountable in accordance with regulations, disciplines, and laws. A total of 100 cases have been investigated and handled, and 170 people have been handled. Among them, 12 were disciplined for party discipline and government affairs. The briefing pointed out that even if the epidemic prevention and control is out of chain or missed, it may cause irreparable losses to the lives and health of the people. (Fujian Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision) Website link

We should not take part in propagating unnecessary conjecture of ulterior motives and conspiracy's
This is concerning enough without adding the fears of over active imaginations. China has publicly shut down its economy. The Chinese government are not trying to hide their concerns, under report the extent of the problem  or save face over this. 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: oren on February 04, 2020, 06:41:40 PM
Well said KiwiGriff. The Chinese are taking very drastic measures other countries would be shirking from. Blaming them serves nothing.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: nanning on February 04, 2020, 06:44:32 PM
Yes KiwiGriff, well said.


Off-topic:
Re: missing parts

This is how break-down/collapse can start. With a missing parts 'shock wave'. And then exponentially more missing parts and halted production.

I know it is far too early to observe that happening but the first signs are 'interesting'.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 07:01:48 PM
Chinese Abandon Food Delivery Fearing Drivers Will Spread Virus
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-abandon-food-delivery-fearing-220000806.html

The deadly coronavirus is disrupting China’s enormous food-delivery networks, complicating daily life for millions and straining businesses integral to its economy.

Over the last decade, the food-delivery industry became far more pervasive in China than in any other country, serving more than 500 million customers and employing three million delivery drivers. But as the virus death toll rises, those peripatetic workers, in trademark blue and yellow jackets, are being shunned as potential carriers of the disease.

That is rattling the $36 billion business and every slice of the economy it touches. Restaurants that rely on the services are moribund. Consumers are scrambling for alternatives.

Reports of sick couriers are turbocharging anxieties, amplified by concern that China’s censors minimize the dangers. In one story that ripped through social media, a driver made three dozen deliveries across the coastal city of Qingdao before his wife was officially diagnosed with the virus. In Shenzhen, local media reported an infected courier had worked for the previous 14 days while showing no symptoms.

----------------------------------------

Fearing Virus, Hong Kong Residents Stock Up On Food, Essentials
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-stockpiling/fearing-virus-hong-kong-residents-stock-up-on-food-essentials-idUSKBN1ZX0CT

(Reuters) - Panic-stricken residents have emptied shelves in major supermarkets in Hong Kong, stockpiling meat, rice, cleaning products and soap as fears escalate over a coronavirus epidemic on the mainland.

The rush to procure food in the city of 7.4 million people is unprecedented, residents say, describing it as far worse than the panic during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that killed nearly 800 people around the world, including nearly 300 in Hong Kong.


The rush to buy food and cleaning products comes as some shoppers said they were concerned that a potential shutdown of the border would impact the supply of products.

Around 90 percent of the city’s total food supply is imported, with the bulk coming from the mainland, according to official data.

... “It is worrying that food is being stockpiled but what is even scarier is the stockpiling of masks and sanitizers,” said a man who would only go by his first name, Nelson, who was shopping with his wife.

So frantic is the search for masks that police on Friday said a 56-year-old medical worker was in custody for stealing 36 face masks and gloves from a hospital where she worked.

(https://i.insider.com/5e298379b6d52d222c01b617?width=1100&format=jpeg&auto=webp)

------------------------------------

$9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/business/china-coronavirus-food-prices.html

Officials are pushing to keep produce flowing and prices down as nervous shoppers stock up, challenging the country’s ability to feed itself.

China's 'virus crisis' is testing China’s ability to feed its 1.4 billion people, one of the Communist Party’s proudest achievements. Cooped up at home and fearful that the epidemic could last weeks or even months, families across China are hoarding provisions, making it harder for shops and supermarkets to keep fresh food in stock. Many places have closed off roads to passing traffic, slowing truck shipments and raising freight costs.

Chinese officials have vowed to keep food flowing to Wuhan, the inland city of 11 million at the center of the outbreak.

Shouguang, one of the country’s biggest hubs for growing, trading and shipping vegetables, has begun donating produce by the truckload to the locked-down city. Officials are on alert for signs of strained supplies throughout the rest of the country. Retail prices for fresh food have crept up in many places.

The Shouguang vegetable price index, a widely watched daily gauge, rocketed to a multiyear high last week. Poultry farmers are warning that supplies of chicken feed are running low because of transport restrictions and millions of birds could die as a result.

As if one dangerous disease was not enough for China right now, the national government over the weekend reported a “highly pathogenic” outbreak of bird flu at a chicken farm in Hunan Province. Some 4,500 chickens had died, and 17,000 were culled preemptively.

Grocery bills in China were already climbing in recent months as an epidemic of swine fever ravaged the nation’s hog population. Rising consumer prices played a role in the protests that culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, and the government has worried about inflation ever since. Hence Beijing’s herculean efforts to keep food moving as the coronavirus brings parts of China’s economy to a near halt.

The authorities have made a show of punishing stores that gouge consumers — one supermarket received a $70,000 fine for selling cabbage at $9 a head, according to official news media.

Two state-run food giants have been ordered to ramp up supplies of rice, flour, cooking oil and meat to Wuhan and Hubei Province, where the city is situated. The city of Tianjin announced recently that Kang Shi Fu, a giant maker of instant noodles, had increased production to 4 million noodle packets a day.

(https://work-body-leisure.hetnieuweinstituut.nl/sites/default/files/styles/pages_slider/public/shouguang_1.jpg?itok=CNZSBp_R)
Shouguang greenhouses

... Wang Zhigang, a manager at one of Shouguang’s main wholesale produce markets, said that as long as the virus was kept away and the city could keep shipments moving, China’s vegetable supplies should remain ample.

“If Shouguang is locked down, then there’s nothing we can do,” Mr. Wang said through his protective face mask.

Shandong, the coastal province where Shouguang is situated, has so far reported 275 cases of the new virus, fewer than some less-populated provinces.

At first glance, Shouguang, a nondescript city of 1.1 million people, does not look like an indispensable node in China’s economy. But the vast greenhouses that line the streets here produce 4.5 million metric tons of vegetables a year. A far greater amount moves through the city’s wholesale markets annually en route to every corner of China.

Recently, as virus concerns have driven up demand for vegetables across the country, farmers in Shouguang have been tapping their reserves, according to Mr. Wang, the wholesale market manager. Some growers here keep months’ worth of potatoes, radishes, onions, cabbages and other vegetables that can weather cold storage. At the front gate of the wholesale market, workers check the temperatures of the truck drivers who bring produce in and out. All vehicles are sprayed with disinfectant. Outsiders are forbidden.

------------------------------------

Virus Fears Stop Two Cruise Ship Visits in New Caledonia
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/408819/virus-fears-stop-two-cruise-ship-visits-in-new-caledonia

Two cruise ships arriving from Australia and Vanuatu have failed to make scheduled stops in New Caledonia amid fears by locals the Wuhan coronavirus could be introduced.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 07:19:46 PM
Wuhan Medic: 'Many More Infections Than Official Numbers Show'
https://www.dw.com/en/wuhan-medic-many-more-infections-than-official-numbers-show/a-52252563

(https://www.dw.com/image/52250662_303.jpg)

Jiesi Luo*: I think there are many more infections and deaths from coronavirus than have been officially reported. When preliminary tests determine that a patient has a lung sickness, the nucleic acid test (NAT), which detects viruses, cannot always be carried out because the waiting list is too long. The patient is therefore not diagnosed.

Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus.

---------------------------------------------

UK Tells All Britons to Leave China - 'If They Can'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51374056

The Foreign Office has urged UK citizens to leave China if they can. In updated travel advice it says:

Quote
The British Consulates-General in Wuhan and Chongqing are currently closed. If you’re in China and able to leave, you should do so. The elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions may be at heightened risk ...

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has sharply criticised the government’s advice to British nationals in China that they should return to the UK.

Quote
From the very start of this outbreak, the government’s response has been a total shambles, and now they appear to be telling British nationals in China simply to fend for themselves in terms of getting out of the country.

How on earth has the Foreign Office not got plans and protocols in place for how these crises are managed? The first duty of any government is to protect its citizens, at home and abroad, and Boris Johnson is manifestly failing to do that.

------------------------------------

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update

The AFP agency reports that the foreign ministers of France and Germany are considering the possibility that Europe could impose a US-style ban on foreign visitors who have recently been to China, in an effort to battle the spread of coronavirus.

“Indeed, there is the question of possible travel restrictions or at least increased examination [of travellers) at the border,” Germany’s Jens Spahn said at a meeting in Paris with his French counterpart Agnes Buzyn.

He was responding to a question about whether Europe would consider a ban similar to that imposed by the United States, which China has accused of spreading “panic”.

“It makes no sense that a single country takes measures” on a continent with border-free travel between most nations, said Spahn.


----------------------------------

Surgical Mask Exports May be Curbed
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1850464/surgical-mask-exports-may-be-curbed


The Thai cabinet agreed measures on Tuesday that could lead to a reduction in the export of surgical masks to prevent shortages at home as health authorities try to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

-----------------------------------

Price Control for Face Masks
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1849949/price-control-for-face-masks

The government is putting face masks and alcohol-based hand sanitiser on the state price control list as part of efforts to deal with the deadly virus outbreak.

--------------------------------------

Tesla Offers Free Charging in China Because of Coronavirus
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3048381/tesla-offers-free-charging-china-because-coronavirus

The EV maker temporarily closed its Shanghai Gigafactory and is donating millions of yuan to help fight the virus
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 04, 2020, 08:15:14 PM
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

this is expected.  halting the import of cases can delay a global pandemic, but it will become endemic as it mutates to survive internationally
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 04, 2020, 08:17:38 PM
And 4 more cities in full lockdown today. https://www.rt.com/news/480026-china-extends-coronavirus-quarantine/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 04, 2020, 08:31:03 PM
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

this is expected.  halting the import of cases can delay a global pandemic, but it will become endemic as it mutates to survive internationally

If you look at that gisanddata map, there are something like 20 new cases in Asia today. Thailand and Singapore both have 6 new cases, and there are a few countries that have 10 or more cases that were below 10 yesterday.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 04, 2020, 08:34:51 PM
THIS!

(https://i.redd.it/z099psispte41.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on February 04, 2020, 09:36:36 PM
Xenophobia has no place in this discussion.


China, and the Chinese are making huge sacrifices in an effort to buy the rest of the world some time to prepare for a horror that is almost certainly coming our way.


I know of no other country, or people, that would attempt such a Sisyphean task. To harass them for errors they may make as they face the real possibility of annihilation is the most ungrateful response I can imagine.


It's like chiding Horatius for not leading an orderly retreat, or chastising him for his unfashionable choice of armor.
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 09:49:34 PM
Chinese Officials Say Priority is to Stop Mild Coronavirus Cases From Getting Worse
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048993/chinese-officials-say-priority-stop-mild-coronavirus-cases

National Health Commission admits Wuhan lacked intensive care facilities at start of the outbreak, but more beds and staff have now been provided

And an epidemiologist says preliminary tests have shown two drugs, Arbidol and Darunavir, could effectively inhibit replication of the new strain

Chinese health officials on Tuesday said that the priority now was to prevent patients with mild symptoms of the new coronavirus from becoming critically ill, and that the treatments being used were effective.

-------------------------------

China Predicts Fall in Wuhan Mortality Rate as Mainland Deaths Hit 425
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-china-death-toll-hits-425-new-cases-hubei-jump

There are now more than 20,000 confirmed cases of the new virus on the mainland, and over 2,700 of those patients are critically ill, according to the officials.

Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the NHC’s Medical Administration Bureau, said that, as of Monday and based on confirmed cases nationwide, the national fatality rate was 2.1 per cent, with the vast majority of deaths in Hubei province.

The central Chinese province has lost 414 people, or 97 per cent of the mainland death toll. According to Jiao, the mortality rate in the provincial capital Wuhan has reached 4.9 per cent, with 313 deaths so far. The mortality rate for Hubei is 3.1 per cent, the highest of any province in the country.

Jiao said that with the exception of Hubei, the average fatality rate was only of 0.16 per cent, with males accounting for two-thirds of the death toll.


Jiao said China had taken further measures to bring down the mortality rate in Hubei, especially Wuhan, with another 1,000 beds for critical cases concentrated in hospitals with ICU capabilities and medical teams with relevant experience in handling critical respiratory disease.

------------------------------------------

China Targets Mild Coronavirus Cases With New Wuhan Medical Shelters
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048989/china-targets-mild-coronavirus-cases-new-wuhan-medical-shelters

China has converted a stadium and two convention centres in the central Chinese city of Wuhan into makeshift hospitals, creating 3,800 more beds for coronavirus patients with mild symptoms and suspected cases.

Authorities are planning to build eight more of the temporary medical facilities and are mobilising medical teams and equipment reserved for emergencies in 20 provinces to go to Wuhan to staff the centres, according to official media.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 04, 2020, 10:06:10 PM
Wanted: Tailors
https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak

A hospital in southwestern China's Yunnan province is looking for tailors to make protective suits in a last-ditch effort to support medical staff in the face of the spreading coronavirus.

In a message widely circulated on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, the People’s Hospital in Chuxiong autonomous prefecture said the desperate decision was made after the hospital tried several supply channels without success.

“To ensure normal operation of disease control and patient treatment, the hospital has decided to self-make protective clothing,” it said in the message.

Chuxiong, in the central part of Yunnan province, has a population of nearly 2.8 million people, about 40 per cent of whom are ethnic minorities.

China has continued to increase overseas purchases of medical protective gear and other equipment to battle the coronavirus. The customs agency said imports reached 810 million yuan (US$115 million) from January 24 to February 2, with protective gear accounting for 75 per cent.

---------------------------

China Scrambles to Locate Passengers On Cruise After At Least Four Diagnosed With Coronavirus

Guangdong province has issued an emergency alert for people who sailed on a China-Vietnam cruise after four passengers were confirmed with coronavirus

Authorities are urging the 4,000 people who were on board the World Dream vessel to report to local disease control centres

-------------------------

Surge in Chinese Employees Working from Home Crash Office Apps Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

Demand for video conferencing services and other online workplace services soared on Monday as employees in China resumed work after the Lunar New Year holiday

Most of the country is working remotely this week as authorities tell businesses to stay closed, to help prevent the spread of a deadly new coronavirus

------------------------

Casinos to Close in Macau for At Least Two Weeks After Hotel Worker Infected

Major blow for world’s casino capital as Macau leader says fortnight hiatus will come into force soon

Galaxy Macau employee, 29, caught the virus in local transmission at Lunar New Year gathering
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 05, 2020, 12:24:00 AM
So we break through 500 reported dead in a few hours and 24,000 infected..... not good if we do see spread outside China, we almost have a template now for what to expect (as long as we do not see further mutations on its transmission potential/seriousness!) should we begin to see it spread in other nations.....
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 05, 2020, 12:42:28 AM
  Has 'Pandemic' become the WHO's equivalent of the UN's interpretation of 'genocide' ?

    i.e. Not to be used unless everyone is dead ?  .. b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 12:46:03 AM
(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/28dd594e9933615ecf883afe510eb2169d79bf0e/0_0_1886_970/master/1886.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=2ab7bfafb0e830ac05b4cad4ee6be361)

Global Confirmed = 24537
Suspected = 23260
Severe/Critical = 3219
Deaths = 492

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

-------------------------------

The overnight figures indicated a small drop in Hubei’s fatality rate, falling to around 2.9 per cent from 3.1 per cent the day before.

----------------------------------

Visitors From Wuhan ‘Certain’ To Have Infected Vancouver Woman With Coronavirus, Making her British Columbia’s Second Patient
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049013/visitors-wuhan-certain-have-infected-vancouver-woman-coronavirus

Visitors from Wuhan appear to have infected a Vancouver woman with novel coronavirus, likely making her British Columbia’s second and Canada’s fifth case of the disease, local health authorities said..

Provincial health officer Bonnie Henry said health officials were “quite certain” that someone in the small group of visitors had infected the woman in her 50s.

But despite the apparent case of human-to-human transmission of the disease, none of the visitors has shown any symptoms

-----------------------------

Princess Cruises Confirms that 10 Passengers have Tested Positive
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/05/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

"We were notified that amongst the samples that have completed testing,10 people have tested positive for Coronavirus," Princess Cruises said in a Tuesday statement after the first phase of health screening for guests and crew onboard the Diamond Princess.

There are more than 3,700 people onboard, and about half of the 2,666 guests are from Japan, the cruise liner said.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/1224845334523916288

(https://s3.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200204&t=2&i=1485506258&w=1200&r=LYNXMPEG1300L)

Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said tests had been carried out on more than 200 passengers.  ... 10 out of 200 ... 3500 to go.  :o

---------------------

Nike Expects 'Material Impact' On Operations in China

Nike has closed half of its stores in China, saying the outbreak will have a "material impact" on its operations there.

... "This situation was not contemplated at the time we provided Q3 guidance during our Q2 fiscal year 2020 earnings call," the company said in a statement. (... ya think)

--------------------------

California Husband and Wife Infected with Coronavirus 'Suddenly Much More Ill'
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481377-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with

Two people diagnosed with the deadly Wuhan coronavirus became “suddenly much more ill” on Sunday evening, and a couple was taken to a hospital in San Francisco by Monday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The two patients, a husband and wife hailing from San Benito County, were diagnosed with the coronavirus after the husband had returned from traveling to China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 05, 2020, 02:22:49 AM
(https://img1.dxycdn.com/2020/0205/300/3394878936923352083-135.png)

New suspected cases falling? Up 3971 having been over 5000 per day
Would expect new suspected cases to fall before new confirmed cases start falling and possibly by quite some time if the testing has fallen behind what they would like to be able to test.

Quarantine beginning to work?


(Earlier question how long can posts keep ahead of deaths? Til recently: deaths 492, posts on this thread 480; How dare we think a life isn't worth a post?)

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 02:55:12 AM
Experts Envision Two Scenarios If the New Coronavirus Isn’t Contained
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, but many experts view that happy outcome as increasingly unlikely.

“Independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases,” scientists at the University of Hong Kong concluded in a paper published in The Lancet last week.

Researchers are therefore asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV — circulating permanently in the human population — be like?

Experts see two possibilities, each with unique consequences:

Just another coronavirus

2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people.

...Although little-known outside health care and virology circles, the current four “are already part of the winter-spring seasonal landscape of respiratory disease,” Adalja said. Two of them, OC43 and 229E, were discovered in the 1960s but had circulated in cows and bats, respectively, for centuries. The others, HKU1 and NL63, were discovered after the 2003-2004 SARS outbreak, also after circulating in animals. It’s not known how long they’d existed in people before scientists noticed, but since they jumped from animals to people before the era of virology, it isn’t known whether that initial jump triggered widespread disease.

OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds.

All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death.

In one of the few close looks at OC43 and 229E, researchers measured their infection rates during four winters (1999-2003) in Rochester, N.Y., among 2,897 healthy outpatients, adults with cardiopulmonary disease, and patients hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses.

... All told, 35% of infections with 229E and 18% with OC43 were asymptomatic. “Asymptomatic infection … [meaning] without respiratory symptoms was fairly common,” the authors concluded.

... There were 96 coronavirus infections among the 1,388 hospitalized patients. OC43 caused more severe disease than 229E, requiring intensive care for 15% of those infected. About one-third of the patients admitted to the hospital with either coronavirus developed pneumonia; one of the 229E patients and two of the OC43 patients died.

2019-nCoV returns repeatedly like bad seasonal flu

The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring.

The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted.

“One scenario is that we go through a pandemic,” as the current outbreak may become, said Columbia’s Morse. “Then, depending what the virus does, it could quite possibly settle down into a respiratory illness that comes back seasonally.”

The toll that would take depends on how many people it infects and how virulent it is. Virulence reflects the viruses’ genetics.

The genome of the novel coronavirus consists of a single stand of RNA. Microbes with that kind of genome mutate “notoriously quickly,” said biologist Michael Farzan of Scripps Research

... SARS has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and the new coronavirus’s similarity to SARS at the genomic level suggests it does, too. “That makes the mutation rate much, much lower than for flu or HIV,” Farzan said. That lowers the chance that the virus will evolve in some catastrophic way to, say, become significantly more lethal.

... The toll of a seasonal-flu-like coronavirus also depends on immunity — which is also scientifically uncertain. Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza, Webby said, but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes. ...

University of Hong Kong researchers estimate the disease will peak in April.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 04:52:54 AM
Coronavirus: Desperate Scenes as 10,000 Queue for Masks at Hong Kong Industrial Estate
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049082/coronavirus-10000-queue-masks-hong-kong

Huge crowds camp overnight in Kowloon for surgical masks after company promises thousands of boxes, as supplies dwindle across city.

A total of 11,000 boxes containing 50 masks each would be up for sale in the next two days, the company said.

Video at: https://mobile.twitter.com/SCMPHongKong/status/1224877947292504064

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Two More Cases Confirmed in Hong Kong, Suspected To Have Been Transmitted Locally, Hours After City Confirms First Death
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048839/coronavirus-hong-kong-confirms-first-death-39

Two new cases, both in their 60s, had not travelled to mainland China recently, and health chief warns of potential for outbreak in city

City suffers first fatality related to deadly virus originating in Wuhan, the second outside mainland China

------------------------

Two Australians, One American Among 10 Infected On Cruise Ship
https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

Two Australians are among the 10 people who have tested positive for coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the cruise company Carnival have confirmed.

The other people infected are three Japanese, three from Hong Kong, one American and one Filipino crewmember.

---------------------------

Passengers On Another Cruise Ship Are Being Tested for the Virus
https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048784/coronavirus-least-three-cases-among-4000-passengers-china

Coronavirus confirmed in at least three passengers who sailed from Guangzhou to Vietnam, with two further cases suspected

Cruise ship containing more than 4,000 passengers sailed on January 19 for five nights, before ferrying new passengers to Hong Kong

World Dream, which is run by Dream Cruises, was denied entry to the southern Taiwan port of Kaohsiung on Tuesday and docked in Hong Kong on Wednesday. All passengers and crew are undergoing health checks, Cable TV reported, according to Reuters.

The ship visited Taiwan’s northern Keelung port on Monday, Taiwan’s health authorities said, and some passengers were allowed to disembark.

The ship can carry 3,376 passengers and 2,000 crew.

Update: 30 crew on Hong Kong cruise ship have coronavirus symptoms – Reuters

Hong Kong’s health department says 30 crew on the World Dream cruise ship docked in Hong Kong have symptoms of the coronavirus.

It added that department staff are conducting tests on 1,800 crew and passengers on board the ship.

It was refused a berth in port in Taiwan on Tuesday and returned to Hong Kong.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 11:26:58 AM
Are many Chinese getting sick, self-isolating in quarantined apartments, and dying there to decay and start secondary disease outbreaks?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 11:27:59 AM
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 05, 2020, 11:38:23 AM
It is important and interesting to investigate what China has done right and what could have been improved. This is not China-bashing and to call it such is dishonest and unhelpful.

Obviously China has taken huge and painful steps to contain the outbreak and the rest of the world benefits from their sacrifices. It's remarkable how much resources China is able to concentrate when their machine starts rolling.

Also it is very likely, if not outright obvious, that initial response in Hubei could have been swifter. There is a lot of bureaucratic inertia as well as social pressure not to cry wolf in such circumstances. They probably only report the confirmed cases and local authorities are not throwing around numbers even if they see that confirming cases is difficult to the point that only a fraction gets reported.

I think reaction in the West would have been the opposite. Lot of focus and information from ground zero while everything would be done to keep trade, travel and the economy running as usual as possible.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 05, 2020, 11:49:39 AM
I do not trust the central authorities by default, but I doubt a quarantine of this magnitude can be successfully done in the US. The hospital was impressive. The data sharing could have been better but it seems to me that the basic statistics are about right. I haven't seen anything raising red flags.

The work that people on the ground, particularly hospital workers is truly commendable.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 02:41:41 PM
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 03:09:55 PM
I bet they figured out how to deal with dead bodies even in China.

Other than the US still not having figured out elections.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 05, 2020, 03:10:46 PM
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.

Quarantined doesn't mean no telephone for people to check on them. If there are a few lonely souls without family and friends, is the current situation much/any different to normal? Perhaps it is better than normal if they are in special quarantined apartment with food deliveries?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 03:15:14 PM
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
Quote
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 05, 2020, 03:17:23 PM
crandles wrote: " Perhaps it is better than normal if they are in special quarantined apartment with food deliveries"

As a story vox shared above pointed out, because of some scares, food deliveries have dropped dramatically.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Janne Hietalahti on February 05, 2020, 04:08:40 PM
I have been wondering about some province numbers. Like
Zhejiang   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:33   895   0   63
Its 63 recoved vs 0 deaths. Sounds just too good.
Outside of mainland chine numbers are 9 recovered vs 2 deaths.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 05, 2020, 04:17:28 PM
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?

Doesn't seem like plausible numbers to me:

10.6 times the confirmed cases but 80.9 times the deaths.
Nearly 16% of confirmed cases already dead when outside mainland China it is only 1%. Seems too big a difference.

4 times the suspected cases but 13.3 times the daily increase also seems a large difference suggesting recent rapid acceleration not yet reflected in confirmed cases.

More suggestive of someone trying to make it look like scary numbers .... perhaps. I don't know, just a suggestion.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 05, 2020, 04:56:45 PM
I have been wondering about some province numbers. Like
Zhejiang   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:33   895   0   63
Its 63 recoved vs 0 deaths. Sounds just too good.
Outside of mainland chine numbers are 9 recovered vs 2 deaths.

For outside China many are feeling up to international travel so likely to be mild so likely more delay before deaths occur.

Comparing
Henan   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:13   764   2   41

Wouldn't surprise me if there had been in region of 4 to 12 deaths from the infection in each of these provinces but some or all had not been confirmed cases so death not recorded as confirmed from this cause and/or two or three deaths suppressed from data. But in the scheme of things, is this all that important? Numbers are still low or at least not that much worse than a fairly normal flu outbreak; it is the (potential) rate of growth that is (debateably) scary.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 05:21:07 PM
Quote
More suggestive of someone trying to make it look like scary numbers .... perhaps. I don't know, just a suggestion.
That someone I would think would not be someone in China. To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: blumenkraft on February 05, 2020, 05:36:01 PM
To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.

Yeah, tell that JFK and MLK.

BTW, the death sentence is a thing in the US too. Why do Americans get to denounce the death sentence in China?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 05:43:51 PM
To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.

Yeah, tell that JFK and MLK.

BTW, the death sentence is a thing in the US too. Why do Americans get to denounce the death sentence in China?
I'm not denouncing the death penalty, I am just pointing out that it is a thing for going against the government in China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: GoodeWeather on February 05, 2020, 06:00:27 PM
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
Quote
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.

Better off as chalking it up to someone editing that data to create fear and panic.  The recoveries is what really screams out to me as "FAKE NEWS".

We saw a lot of people posting on social media how the virus was crossed with HIV and proven to be man made, but that was quickly debunked.

I don't even look at the numbers anymore.  What i do look at, is the broader picture of what is going on.

1)China originally tried to cover this up in the middle of December by arresting 8 doctors who investigating the very first cases.  Citing they were "spreading rumors" by mentioning SARS in their findings.

2)December 31 - China investigates 27 cases of "viral pneumonia" amid online speculation that it could be linked to a SARS flu-like virus.

3)January 22 - 571 confirmed case and 17 deaths.  China suspends all outbound travel from Wuhan.

4)January 24 - China expands "quarantine" to include 13 other cities, restricting travel to over 40 million people.  USA issues travel warning level 4 for Wuhan.

5)January 26 - USA and France announce plans to evacuate nationals out of Wuhan (multiple counties follow this lead in the following days)

6) January 31 - USA issues level 4 travel warning for all of China just the day after the WHO finally declared the virus a Public health emergency of international concern. 

Let's stop here and discuss the events that took a little over a month to develop

#1 - This alone shows that we can not trust anything China is telling us

#2 - These were the first "reported" cases.

#3 - China quarantines a population of 11 million people for only 517 cases and 17 deaths??? Drastic measures illustrating how they completely underestimated the virus's ability to spread.

#4 - China desperately trying to contain the outbreak of the virus that has already spread well beyond the point of origin.

#5 - Countries evacuating their nationals for ground zero.  This measure probably worries me the most.  Not in the sense that they may transport the virus, because it is already here.  More so from the point of view that countries are making a desperate attempt to save their citizens.

#6 - This one leads me to believe that we might see china get "sealed off" from the rest of the world (multiple border crossings with nations already closed).


With all that addressed, the actual number for deaths and cases is almost certainly higher than reported(how much higher is what remains to be seen), but i do think that this Tencent data was physically altered for the purpose of spreading fear.



Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 05, 2020, 06:07:20 PM
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.


If it spreads like the flu, with a higher mortality rate. About what kind of numbers will we be talking ? In a good year 3 % of the US population gets infected with the flu, in a bad year 10 %. If that's the case, we should start thinking about how we can help.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 05, 2020, 06:18:41 PM
Good point, Alex. The estimate of how many people got the flu in the 'bad year' of '17-'18 in the US was 45 million (including yours truly...twice! :/ ). https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

If the death rate is 2% for the Wuhan virus (could be optimistic or perhaps pessimistic), the deaths in a bad year from it would reach nearly a million (~900,000). That, plus the many hospitalizations, would be both tragic for the individual affected and more than disruptive for the functioning of society at large.

I suspect that we wouldn't see those large numbers till next flu season, that is, next winter.

Even if it miraculously stays mostly within China, effects on supply chains is really going to start to bite soon.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 06:55:50 PM
How Does the New Coronavirus Compare With the Flu?
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The CDC estimates that, on average, about 8% of the U.S. population gets sick with the flu each season.

... So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

The death rate for 2019-nCoV is still unclear, but it appears to be higher than that of the flu. Throughout the outbreak, the death rate for 2019-nCoV has been about 2%. Still, officials note that in the beginning of an outbreak, the initial cases that are identified "skew to the severe," which may make the mortality rate seem higher than it is, Alex Azar, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Homeland Security (HHS), said during a news briefing on Jan. 28. The mortality rate may drop as more mild cases are identified, Azar said.

Percentage of severe and critical cases are also higher than the flu.

... The measure scientists use to determine how easily a virus spreads is known as the "basic reproduction number," or R0 (pronounced R-nought). This is an estimate of the average number of people who catch the virus from a single infected person, Live science previously reported. The flu has an R0 value of about 1.3, according to The New York Times.

Researchers are still working to determine the R0 for 2019-nCoV. A study published Jan. 29 in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) estimated an R0 value for the new coronavirus to be 2.2, meaning each infected person has been spreading the virus to an average of 2.2 people.

... Unlike seasonal flu, for which there is a vaccine to protect against infection, there is no vaccine for 2019-nCoV.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 07:39:04 PM
How Coronavirus is Affecting the Global Economy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/coronavirus-global-economy

Supply chain

Airbus has stopped its production line in Tianjin as travel restrictions imposed by Beijing take their toll. The plant builds about six A320 aircrafts per month, so its closure will affect the manufacturer’s jet output. Other manufacturers to have halted production in China include Toyota, General Motors and Volkswagen.

The impact on manufacturing output is not confined to China. The South Korean carmaker Hyundai has halted production lines because of disruption to the supply chain of parts that usually flow between the two countries.  Honda has three plants in Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic.

GSK, one of Britain’s largest drugmakers, said its medicine packaging facility in Tianjin, which employs about 100 people, remained closed after the extended lunar new year holiday. The company has 3,000 employees across China, many of whom are working from home.

Apple, which has suppliers in Wuhan, said the reopening of some suppliers’ factories had been postponed from the end of January to mid-February. Its chief Chinese supplier, Foxconn, is reported to have halted almost all of its Chinese production.

Nike has closed about half its stores and is reducing hours in the remainder as shoppers desert the streets. China accounts for about 17% of its revenues in normal years. Adidas said it has closed a “considerable” number of its outlets, while H&M said store closures in China – about 45 – hurt sales in January. Gap and Hugo Boss have closed stores or shortened hours.

Disney has said operating income will be cut by $175m (£134m) after it was forced to close two theme parks that are usually busy over the new year period.

Ikea has closed all of its 30 stores in China, while McDonalds shut about 300 restaurants, 10% of its network in the country, and Starbucks has shut about half of its 4,100 cafes.

Tata Motors, is warning of a group-wide impact. According to JLR’s latest annual report, 17% of sales – nearly 100,000 vehicles – come from China.

Royal Caribbean has called off eight trips to China and stopped any passengers who have travelled through, from or to China or Hong Kong in the past 15 days from boarding. It said the restrictions would cost it $50m of revenue.

Cathay Pacific has cut flights to the country by 90%. The Hong Kong-based airline has asked 27,000 staff to take three weeks of unpaid leave to help see it through the crisis.

------------------------------------

Production Halts at China Factories Lead to Worldwide Shortages in Car Parts
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3049118/coronavirus-outbreak-adds-salt-wounded-global-car-industry

South Korea’s Hyundai Motor became the first global carmaker to halt production outside China because of component shortages caused by stop-works and lockdowns to combat the coronavirus

General Motors, Volkswagen, Toyota Motor are among companies that have closed their China plants at least through February 9

Wuhan, the capital of Hubei, is one of the top auto-industry hubs in China, together with Shanghai, Guangzhou and Chanchun, where global manufacturers make both cars and components together with partners.

Hundreds of suppliers have factories in Hubei, including more than half of the Top 20 global parts makers, with Robert Bosch, Valeo and ZF Friedrichshafen among those producing components there, according to China Automotive Technology & Research Centre.

“Wuhan is the most cost competitive among China’s car-industry hubs, therefore many parts makers produce components there and supply their clients around the world.”

Tesla is among companies saying they’re monitoring potential supply-chain interruptions for cars built outside China as well.

The outbreak may reduce vehicle output by more than 1.7 million cars because of plant closings, according to IHS Markit.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/55/Geely_assembly_line_in_Beilun%2C_Ningbo.JPG)

Dongfeng Motor Corporation, which is based in Wuhan and is one of China’s biggest carmakers, said its factories remained shut and would only reopen depending “on the prevention and control of the epidemic”.

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus Weakens China’s Demand for Air Cargo Despite Drastic Freight Capacity Cuts on Passenger Planes
https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3049114/coronavirus-weakens-chinas-demand-air-cargo-despite-drastic

Aviation data firm OAG said there would be more than 25,000 fewer flights operated to, from and within China this week compared with two weeks ago, with 30 airlines halting services.

About half of the air cargo carried globally is on passenger jets rather than in dedicated freighters, and the flight cuts have made the Chinese market more dependent on freight haulers.

...“If you’re ordering people to stay in their houses it’s difficult to keep factories running,” Bernstein analyst Daniel Roeska said. “Many supply chains are essentially halted, so there’s nothing to transport.”

Air cargo represents less than 1 per cent of global trade by tonnage, but that amounts to around US$6 trillion worth of goods every year – more than 35 per cent of global trade by value, according to data from Boeing, the biggest manufacturer of freighters.

China’s aviation fuel sales were down a quarter during the last week of January as domestic and international flights fell sharply amid the spread of the coronavirus, a senior oil industry source with direct knowledge of the matter said.

Aviation fuel sales between January 24 and 31 fell nearly 25 per cent from a year earlier to 555,000 tonnes, the source said on Wednesday.

----------------------------------

In Alibaba's Hometown, a Grim Message: 'Don't Go Out'
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-alibaba-hometown-grim-message-dont.html

A loudspeaker broadcast ominous instructions across the deserted streets of Hangzhou, the eastern Chinese city that is home to e-commerce giant Alibaba: "Please don't go out, don't go out, don't go out!"

Hangzhou is famous for being where tech tycoon Jack Ma founded his online shopping business in an apartment two decades ago, a one hour journey on a bullet train from Shanghai.

But as large parts of China come to a standstill in a bid to end the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus, green fences and "no entry" signs blocked streets near the headquarters of one of the world's most valuable companies.

Alibaba's headquarters are inside one of three Hangzhou districts where some three million people were told this week that only one person per household would be allowed outside every two days, to buy necessities.

... Nobody was seen coming in or out, and a security guard told AFP that the company's parks across the country were closed.

Several roads in closed-off Yuhang district were sealed and manned by security personnel.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/thecityofhan.jpg)
City of Hangzhou

------------------------------------

Hong Kong Retail Sector Takes a Battering as Sales Plunge 11.1%; Bank, Telecoms Company and Fashion Boutique Take Hit
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/3048922/hong-kong-retail-sector-takes-battering-sales
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049232/coronavirus-fears-spread-hong-kong-employees-bank

City sees sharpest decline in more than 20 years against backdrop of trade war and civil unrest

More uncertainty lies ahead with coronavirus claiming its first victim in the city

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus Bites Into Business On China’s Lockdown Fringe
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049127/coronavirus-bites-business-chinas-lockdown-fringe

Farmers and firms face grim prospects as crops go to waste and people stay home

... Li, 38, has 23 greenhouses covering about 6,000 square metres (1.5 acres), but his sales have plummeted, with customers staying at home to avoid contagion. Many of his now ripe strawberries might have to be thrown away, he said.

---------------------------------------

Coronavirus: Cathay Pacific Asks All 27,000 Employees to Take Turns on Three Weeks Unpaid Leave
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/transport/article/3049132/coronavirus-cathay-pacific-asks-all-27000-employees-take

Cathay Pacific is asking all of its 27,000 employees to take three weeks of unpaid leave over the coming months, the company’s CEO told staff on Wednesday, as Hong Kong’s flagship carrier reels from the impact of the deadly coronavirus on air travel.

... On Tuesday, the airline unveiled massive cuts to flying schedules – 30 per cent worldwide for two months, including a 90 per cent cut in capacity to mainland China.

... Given the size of the capacity cuts reported, though, I’m not sure voluntary unpaid leave will be enough very soon.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 08:08:16 PM
FDA Takes Significant Step in Coronavirus Response Efforts, Issues Emergency Use Authorization for the First 2019 Novel Coronavirus Diagnostic
https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-takes-significant-step-coronavirus-response-efforts-issues-emergency-use-authorization-first

Today, the U.S Food and Drug Administration issued an emergency use authorization (EUA) to enable emergency use of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel. To date, this test has been limited to use at CDC laboratories; today’s authorization allows the use of the test at any CDC-qualified lab across the country.

... Under this EUA, the use of 2019-nCoV Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel is authorized for patients who meet the CDC criteria for 2019-nCoV testing. Testing is limited to qualified laboratories designated by the CDC and, in the U.S., those certified to perform high complexity tests.

The diagnostic is a reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test that provides presumptive detection of 2019-nCoV from respiratory secretions, such as nasal or oral swabs. A positive test result indicates likely infection with 2019-nCoV and infected patients should work with their health care provider to manage their symptoms and determine how to best protect the people around them. Negative results do not preclude 2019-nCoV infection and should not be used as the sole basis for treatment or other patient management decisions. Negative results must be combined with clinical observations, patient history and epidemiological information.

--------------------------------------

How Do We Test for Coronavirus, Anyway? (...excellent explanation of the testing science)
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/how-does-one-test-for-coronavirus-anyway/

If you're not familiar with the tools of molecular biology, the CDC's testing procedure might as well be written in another language. What follows is a description of how to go from an unknown virus to a diagnostic test in less than a month. ...

-----------------------------------

https://youtu.be/l3uQYgeMyxQ

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus: Severe Cases Up But ‘Signs of Faster Diagnosis’ in China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049231/coronavirus-severe-cases-signs-faster-diagnosis-china

China has reported a significant drop in new suspected cases and a rise in confirmed and severe cases of the deadly coronavirus since Tuesday, signs that diagnosis is speeding up, according to Chinese health experts.

Li Xingwang, chief infectious disease specialist at Beijing Ditan Hospital, said the rise in severe cases was in line with the increase in confirmed cases, and did not indicate that the virus had become deadlier.

He said the number of deaths and severe cases had increasing significantly in Hubei, but the figures for suspected cases in the province had also dropped significantly.

“It shows that Hubei has greatly sped up diagnosis,” Li said.

-------------------------------------

More Testing in Wuhan

Wuhan’s ability to diagnose the coronavirus has been boosted, mainland media reported. Hubei Daily reported on Wednesday that 31 institutions in Wuhan were equipped to carry out testing, and that their capacity had been increased from 200 tests a day to 4,000.

Tongji Hospital could now perform 1,000 tests a day, and had 27 staff – up from 12 – who were able to conduct them in a 24-hour operation, the report stated. “As the demand for tests is rising, we have deployed manpower from other departments,” Sun Zirong, a director of the hospital, said.


---------------------------------

In Wuhan’s Shadow, Smaller Coronavirus-Hit Chinese Cities Scramble for Medical supplies
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048966/wuhans-shadow-smaller-coronavirus-hit-chinese-cities-scramble

Stockpiles of protective equipment are running low in places like Xiaogan and Huanggang, little-known cities with millions of people

Residents look for sources of disinfectant to clean their homes but lockdowns hamper influx of deliveries

-------------------------------------

Baby Tests Positive for Coronavirus Just 30 Hours After Birth
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-baby-positive-china-virus-hours.html

A baby in China's epidemic-hit Wuhan city has been diagnosed with the novel coronavirus just 30 hours after being born, Chinese state media reported Wednesday.

CCTV quoted experts as saying it may be a case of "vertical transmission", referring to infections passed from mother to child during pregnancy, childbirth or immediately after.

The mother had tested positive for the virus before she gave birth.

The official Xinhua news agency reported Monday that a baby born last week to an infected mother had tested negative.

-------------------------------------

China Revives Output of Medical Supplies But Shortages Persist On Front Line
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048803/coronavirus-production-boost-said-easing-shortage-medical

Ministry official says 60-70 per cent of factories that make needed items have resumed production after Lunar New Year break

Supply and demand are becoming ‘more stable and balanced’, he says

------------------------------------

Asymptomatic Transmitters
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049011/coronavirus-death-toll-jumps-65-479-chinas-hubei-province

Chinese health authorities have identified a number of patients who have become carriers and transmitters of the coronavirus despite showing no outward symptoms of the disease.

Li Xingwang, chief infectious diseases expert at Beijing Ditan Hospital, said most of the “dormant” carriers were related to and had caught the virus from patients with symptoms.

“These [carriers] have the virus and can transmit it. The amount of virus correlates to the severity of the illness, which means these patients carry less of the virus and their ability to transmit disease is weaker,” Li said.

-------------------------------

https://youtu.be/PGUazJCRK88
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 08:37:59 PM
Coronavirus in Wuhan: ‘We’d Rather Die At Home Than Go To Quarantine’
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088

Wenjun Wang is a resident of Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicentre of the deadly coronavirus outbreak. Ms Wang, a 33-year-old housewife, and her family have remained in the city since it was sealed off on 23 January.

Since the outbreak of the coronavirus, my uncle has already passed away, my father is critically ill and my mum and aunt have started showing some symptoms. The CT scans shows their lungs are infected. My brother is coughing too, and has some breathing difficulties.

My dad has a high fever. His temperature was 39.3C (102F) yesterday and he's constantly coughing and having breathing difficulties. We got him an oxygen machine at home and he relies on that machine twenty-four seven.

In Wuhan, there are many quarantine points to accommodate patients who have slight symptoms or are still in the incubation period. There are some simple and really basic facilities there. But for people who are critically ill like my father, there are no beds for them.

We thought the quarantine point my dad and uncle went to was a hospital at the beginning, but it turned out to be a hotel.

There was no nurse or doctor and there was no heater. They went in the afternoon and the staff there served them a cold dinner that evening. My uncle was very ill then, with severe respiratory symptoms and started losing consciousness.


No doctor came to treat him. He and my dad stayed in separate rooms and when dad went to see him at 06:30 in the morning, he had already passed away.

The new hospitals being built are for people who are already in other hospitals at the moment. They are going to be transferred to the new ones.

If we follow the government's guidelines, the only place we can go now is to those quarantine points. But if we went, what happened to my uncle would then happen to dad.

So we'd rather die at home.

There are many families like us around, all facing the same difficulties.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/17bb43a67f2f792530c378fe08143dc54d4c1f7c/0_0_3936_2362/master/3936.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8abc3cc328f8bfb672f7bd7846361871)

-------------------------------------

Voices of Coronavirus Patients: 'Wherever We Go, No One Cares'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/05/voices-of-coronavirus-patients-wherever-we-go-no-one-cares

Li Lun is desperate. On Tuesday her husband was confirmed to have the Wuhan coronavirus, after weeks of suffering with a fever. They have not been able to get him admitted to a hospital or find space for him to quarantine himself.

The family of six – Li, 39, her husband, her in-laws and the couple’s two children, both disabled – live in close quarters in a three-bedroom apartment in Wuhan. They sent the children to an aunt on Monday. Li and her mother-in law have developed symptoms and both have confirmed lung infections, which some doctors say should be reason enough to be quarantined. Li has been vomiting and had diarrhoea.

They have had no instructions from Wuhan’s centre for disease control, nor from the neighbourhood committee, which is in charge of communicating with health authorities and hospitals to arrange for treatment and follow-ups. Li posted on the microblog Weibo pleading for help, one of hundreds of posts in the last few days. “I’m afraid I will collapse. I have called almost every number, everywhere,” Li said. “Wherever we go, no one cares about us.”

... Infected residents and their relatives interviewed by the Guardian described a sense of helplessness and mounting outrage as they tried to get help for sick family members and shield healthy ones, often children.

One woman said she had taken her elderly parents to three hospitals searching for space for them. By the time they reached the last one, which had no free beds, her parents were so feverish they were unable to make the journey home. She put blankets on the floor outside the observation ward and they slept there.

... Experts have said too many infected patients are being sent home, causing a growing number of family clusters of the virus. Few regular citizens know how to effectively self-quarantine, according to Zhang Xiaochun, the chief physician in the imaging department of Wuhan University Zhongnan hospital.

-----------------------------------

Singapore Confirms Four New cCases, Including 6-Month-Old Boy, Taking Tally to 28
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3049234/coronavirus-singapore-confirms-four-new-cases-including-6

Three of the new cases are linked to a ‘cluster of local transmission’ while the fourth was a Chinese national who arrived from Wuhan last month

Four others from same cluster had been in contact with a group of tourists who visited Singapore from Guangxi province in China, health ministry says

-------------------------------------------

Coronavirus: 10 New Cases Confirmed, 30 More Suspected in Wuhan After Thousands Attend Lunar New Year Banquet
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049173/coronavirus-10-new-cases-confirmed-30-more-suspected-wuhan-after

57 buildings in residential community of 130,000 people get ‘fever’ tag after mass feast on January 19

In Fujian province, 4,000 people put in isolation after man infected with virus lies so he can attend banquet, wedding reception

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2020/02/05/6db65936-47eb-11ea-befc-ef9687daaa85_image_hires_223343.jpeg?itok=c7d8s5ms&v=1580913228)

The Thousands Households Banquet was held on January 19 in the city’s Baibuting neighbourhood, which is home to about 130,000 people, The Economic Observer reported on Wednesday.

Despite the coronavirus outbreak already being in full swing – and the first deaths reported – officials gave the go-ahead for tens of thousands to attend the annual feast, which is prepared by the families themselves, with each contributing and sharing dishes.

People began falling sick soon after attending the banquet and as a result 57 residential blocks within the community – each home to about 14 families – were subsequently designated “fever” buildings, business news outlet Caixin said on its website.

“The signs were posted without people being told what they meant or what they should do,” an unnamed resident was quoted as saying.

... A report by The Beijing News quoted one such officer as saying that the “fever” signs did not necessarily mean there was someone inside who had been infected.

“We posted the signs to remind residents not to visit each other. As of now, nobody has been confirmed as having the disease,” he said
... ? ? ? ? :o

... Meanwhile, in Jinjiang, southeast China’s Fujian province, 4,000 people have been put in isolation after coming into contact with a man from Wuhan who attended a Lunar New Year banquet and wedding reception in the city on Sunday, The Beijing News reported.

After he was diagnosed as being infected with the coronavirus, all of the guests who had been at the two events were told to go into isolation for two weeks, the report said.

---------------------------------------

https://youtu.be/hP6ycqZmYc4

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus cases in South Korea and Malaysia Linked to Singapore Meeting Spark WHO Investigation
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3049091/coronavirus-south-korea-confirms-two-new-cases-including-man

A Malaysian and South Korean were infected after going to a conference in Singapore, which included guests from China and Wuhan

The source of their infections has not been identified

--------------------------------------

No PLA takeover of Wuhan

State-run Hubei Daily has dismissed as rumours claims circulating online that the military will take over Wuhan on February 10 if the coronavirus cannot be contained by then.

It also dismissed speculation that the city’s supermarkets would be closed in three days, quoting Wuhan’s commerce bureau as saying it would be business as usual.

On Monday, the People’s Liberation Army said it was taking control of delivery of supplies in Wuhan.

------------------------------------

Unknowns of the New Virus Make Global Quarantines a Struggle
https://apnews.com/d72d7dcc04a692d32f6e35bc9d55ab12

-------------------------------------

Coronavirus: Race to Save Wuhan’s Starving Pets as Owners Unable to Return to Homes
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/article/3049116/coronavirus-race-save-wuhans-starving-pets-owners-unable-return-homes

Thousands of pet owners prevented from returning to their homes following the Wuhan lockdown are appealing to animal rescue groups to help them

Volunteers have had to break down front doors and climb in windows, and say the task is getting harder as more housing estates block strangers from entering
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 08:58:54 PM
China's Jiangsu Develops Rapid Test Kit for Coronavirus
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-01/31/c_138745729.htm

Experts have developed a rapid nucleic test kit for the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in the city of Wuxi, east China's Jiangsu Province.

The kit can detect the virus within eight to 15 minutes, according to the city bureau of science and technology.

The kit was the joint work of experts from the National Institute for Viral Disease Control and Prevention and a Wuxi-based high-tech company. The company received a notice to develop the kit on Jan. 20.

The kit is undergoing mass production. The company said it can produce kits for 4,000 people a day, and the city government is helping the company expand production.

------------------------

Detecting Coronavirus Cases as Outbreak Grows
https://www.genengnews.com/news/detecting-coronavirus-cases-as-outbreak-grows/

Coronaviruses have genomes encoded by RNA. Therefore, a standard PCR cannot be used to detect the presence of the virus. However, with the small addition of a reverse transcriptase step (which converts RNA to DNA) the viral genome can be detected. Indeed, this technique that has been around for decades, called RT-PCR, now lies squarely in the middle of the outbreak.

On January 26th, China’s regulatory agency, the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) announced the approval of four new coronavirus detection products.

Included in those are real-time fluorescent RT-PCR kits made by the Chinese genome sequencing company BGI. ... BGI has now released a total of 40,000 test kits to hospitals and disease control centers around China. They noted that they can produce about 50,000 kits a day and have about 100,000 in stock.

(... there is an error in translation in regards to the word 'kit'  - it should read test ... i.e. tests/day)

The Chinese company Liferiver Biotech took just over 10 days to develop their coronavirus detection kit, according to reporting by CGTN, the official website for China Global Television Network. They noted that, since the genomic sequence of nCoV-2019 was published on January 10th, employees at the company have maintained an around the clock schedule to develop the kit that eliminates SARS 2003 and Bat SARS-like virus strains, making the detection of nCoV-2019 virus specific. Liferiver asserts that their kit can detect the presence of the virus in less than two hours, with 100% accuracy, and that their production capacity can test 200,000 people a day.

Hong Li, PhD, department head of reagent services, R&D department, at GenScript—a company with headquarters in both China and the United States—told GEN that their kit tests for the presence of four multiple nCoV-2019 genes: the O, R, N, and E gene. Typical of RNA viruses, coronaviruses mutate frequently. Detecting multiple genes simultaneously reduces the risk of missing detection that could occur with genomic variation. In addition, Li noted that they can detect the virus at a very early stage.

Eric Wang, VP of marketing at GenScript, explained to GEN that this kit is currently for research processes and is not designed for hospital use. But because of the shortage of the detection methods in China, Wang noted that they are currently seeking approval for clinical use which they expect will take weeks. In the meantime, the kit can be used for research purposes.

... In addition to their detection efforts, Genscript noted that they have received urgent requests from partners to synthesize the genes of nCoV-2019 as quickly as possible, so that companies, universities, and government agencies can get to work on the vaccine and therapeutic development.

... A team of researchers led by Leo L.M. Poon, DPhil, of the University of Hong Kong has developed two rapid tests for the coronavirus that could break this diagnostic bottleneck. Using a technology known as real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), the tests detect two gene regions that are only found in the Wuhan coronavirus (officially known as 2019-novel-coronavirus) and in other closely related coronaviruses such as SARS. The two gene regions detected by the tests are known as ORF1b and N. Significantly, both tests also take only about 1 hour and 15 minutes to run. This fast turnaround time could enable Chinese labs to greatly increase patient access to coronavirus testing.
https://www.ptcommunity.com/wire/two-new-rapid-coronavirus-tests-could-play-key-role-efforts-contain-growing-epidemic
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 05, 2020, 09:21:38 PM
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

Whelp
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 09:35:51 PM
Coronavirus Spreads to Wisconsin in 12th US Case

Officials with the Wisconsin Department of Health Services on Wednesday, Feb. 5 confirmed the first case of coronavirus in the state.

The case is in Madison -- at UW Hospital. The patient was exposed while traveling to China within the past two weeks.

DHS officials said the patient showed up at UW Hospital's ER with flu-like symptoms -- but was never admitted to the hospital. The patient was placed on "home isolation" per Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, with tests continuing.

The patient tested positive Wednesday and placed in isolation.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 05, 2020, 09:52:36 PM
Superb job Vox.

I dared to follow sark's link, curious about the cases in China. It deserves a post.

(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_full/public/images/novel-coronavirus-nCoV-distribution-laboratory-confirmed-cases-worldwide-5-february-2020.png)

whelp is right.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 05, 2020, 10:10:49 PM
3,700 on Dream Cruises ship undergoing testing after 3 confirmed coronavirus cases

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/news/2020/02/05/coronavirus-1800-dream-cruises-passengers-quarantined-tested-after-three-cases/4665323002/

Quote
Edith Poon, spokesperson for Genting Hong Kong Limited, the holding company that owns Dream Cruises, confirmed that 30 crew members self-declared symptoms of the virus. "We are currently waiting for the results to come in," she told USA TODAY. "Upon availability of the results, we shall comply with the Department of Health's instruction on the next step forward. Until then, as advised by the Department of Health, all passengers of the cruise ship are to remain onboard."

Quite horrifying for those aboard. I hope they are all cleared soon. However, it could be useful to examine the rate of infection and the severity of those on board.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 10:49:11 PM
^ Related

https://youtu.be/M8Z5jKIGk3Y
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 05, 2020, 10:56:12 PM
(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_large/public/images/novel-coronavirus-nCoV-geographical-distribution-EU-5-february-2020.jpg)

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 10:56:43 PM
How are we calculating this 2%? If it is just dividing deaths by cases, it seems doomed to be an underestimation in the early days of an exponentially growing epidemic. Since you don’t drop dead in mid step, there will be people who are sick who will die in a few days, who will be counted as cases when they really should be counted as fatalities. Are we counting those who got sick on a certain date and of those the ones who died? You are sick for quite awhile with this, and I started hearing 2% quite early in the epidemic.
This leaves aside the number of patients who survive only in hospitals which might be overwhelmed, the possibility of accidental and/or deliberate underestimated cases and/or deaths, etc.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 05, 2020, 11:15:33 PM
Watch and make up your own minds as to the validity of the sentiment.....

https://youtu.be/AbuqmziQ28I
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 05, 2020, 11:16:17 PM
Tom, Yes, lots of uncertainties.

But on the other side, lots of non-lethal cases probably went unreported early on, people who didn't go to the hospital or for other reasons never got tested. Lots of the media are saying that because of this factor, %2 probably is an overestimation, overlooking your, in my view, valid points.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 05, 2020, 11:33:38 PM
When China's Supply Chains Break, so Will the Delusion the U.S. Economy Is Invulnerable
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/when-chinas-supply-chains-break-so-will.html
Quote
U.S. corporations that assume their supply chains will return to normal in a week or two are in for a big surprise: consequential chunks of their supply chains, likely chunks they never paid much attention to, will dry up and blow away. The factories will not re-open, and the workers won't return.
Any way they cut it, costs will rise whether Corporate America seeks suppliers outside China or alternative suppliers in China. With global wages stagnant for the past decade or two, raising prices is a non-starter. Net-net, corporate profits will fall even if sales remain robust, which is unlikely given the world's largest economy and manufacturing center is grinding to a halt.
Once the supply chain breakdown comes home to roost in Corporate America, the mass delusion that the U.S. economy is invulnerable will collapse in a heap. Was it ever plausible that China's economy could grind to a halt and there wouldn't be a domino-like collapse of all the weak links in its supply chains? No. Companies living on debt and speculation only needed the slightest push to careen off the cliff into insolvency. The coronavirus is that push.
Was it ever plausible that China's economy could grind to a halt and there wouldn't be any consequences for the U.S. economy? No. Alas, mass delusions always end badly.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 05, 2020, 11:35:50 PM
replies overtaken by deaths again .. Aljazeera reporting 549 deaths in Hubei alone tonight .. b.c.

 p.s. my concern at the fragility of the world economy seems increasingly justified .
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 12:11:47 AM
Global = 27,633
China = 27,434
Deaths = 564

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

----------------------------------

Vietnam Setting Up Field Hospitals for Possible Virus Influx
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200204233943034.html

Vietnam is setting up field hospitals with thousands of beds to handle a potential influx of coronavirus cases, health officials said, as it prepares to receive its nationals from China.

In the southern business hub of Ho Chi Minh city, two existing facilities are being converted into field hospitals with a total capacity of 500 beds.

In Hanoi, two military facilities have been turned into quarantine centres for up to 1,500 people as the country prepares to receive 950 people from China to be isolated at the sites.

Two provinces in northern Vietnam near the China border have also set up beds for close to 3,000 patients. Central Vietnam has centres ready for as many as 3,700.

-----------------------------

Japan Prepares Ferry To Be Used As Quarantine Ship

Japan's military prepared a chartered ferry on Wednesday to use as a quarantine ship that could house hundreds of suspected coronavirus cases.

The Hakuo was docked at the Yokosuka naval base near Tokyo.

"Around 300 people could comfortably live on the ship and it has a maximum capacity for 500, although that would mean queues for the baths and other facilities," a Japan Self Defense Force official told Reuters.

Japan has not yet forcibly quarantined people who may carry the coronavirus, including Japanese returning on evacuation flights from Wuhan.

-----------------------------

Wuhan Carries Out City-Wide Sterilisation Campaign

Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak, has started a city-wide sterilisation campaign in an effort to curb the spread of the infection.

A video posted on social media by the state-owned Global Times showed a truck spraying mist in one city block, and a motorised rickshaw making rounds and shooting thick white fumes in the air in a residential area in the city.

Video at link: https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1224929393664901120

------------------------------

(https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,h_378,w_500,c_limit/v200/6f8df4d28829543f1ac922bae25a9e94)

-------------------------------

WHO Convening Experts on Drugs, Vaccines to Set Research Agenda
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200204233943034.html

Experts will meet in Geneva from February 11-12 to set research and development priorities for coronavirus drugs, diagnostics and vaccines to combat the outbreak, the WHO said.

WHO Director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said a multinational WHO-led team would go to China "soon".

--------------------------

Putin Proposed Stripping Pharmacy Licenses for Raising Mask Prices

Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed stripping pharmacies of their licenses if they raise prices for anti-virus masks.

Russia, which last week reported its first two cases of the virus, has restricted crossings along its 4,300km (2,670-mile) land border with China and flew home its first group of citizens from Wuhan on Wednesday.

----------------------------

WHO: 'No Known Effective' Treatments for New Coronavirus

The World Health Organization (WHO) played down media reports of "breakthrough" drugs being discovered to treat people infected with the new coronavirus.

A Chinese TV report said that a research team at Zhejiang University had found an effective drug for the virus, while British broadcaster Sky News said researchers had made a "significant breakthrough" in developing a vaccine.

------------------------------

Tokyo Olympics Chief Expresses Worry for This Year's Games

Tokyo 2020 Olympics organisers expressed growing concerns about the effect of the coronavirus from China on this year's Games, which kick off in less than six months.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 06, 2020, 01:14:27 AM
截至 2020-02-05 16:04 全国数据统计
数据说明
较昨日+3698
28060 确诊
较昨日+5328
24702 疑似
较昨日+640
3859 重症
较昨日+72
563 死亡
较昨日+261
1153 治愈

As of 2020-02-05 16:04 National Statistics
Data description

28,060 Confirmed - add 3,698 since yesterday
24,702 Suspected - add 5,328 since yesterday
  3,859 Critical      - add   640 since yesterday
     563 Deaths     - add      72 since yesterday
  1,153 Cured       - add    261 since yesterday

John's Hopkins
Total Confirmed  27,636
Total Deaths           564
Total Recovered   1,124
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 01:56:58 AM
Ten More People Diagnosed On Cruise Ship in Japan – Reports
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/06/coronavirus-live-updates-in-china-wuhan-coronaviruses-outbreak-death-toll-latest-update-news

We’re getting reports that another 10 people have tested positive for coronavirus onboard the cruise ship that is currently moored off Japan.

... The Japanese broadcaster NHK is citing the health ministry saying there are 10 new cases of coronavirus on the Diamond Princess, moored off Yokohama.

If the new infections are confirmed, that would bring the total number of coronavirus patients in Japan to 45, Reuters says.

The ship was caught up in the global coronavirus epidemic after an 80-year-old Hong Kong man tested positive for the virus after disembarking the ship late last month.

Passengers and their relatives took to social media to detail their predicament and conditions on the cruise ship.

Update: Health officials now have the results of 102 tests conducted on 273 passengers. A total of twenty were positive. He says the second group of patients found to have been infected will be taken to hospitals in Kanagawa prefecture, where Yokohama is located, according to the health ministry.

We are getting confirmation of the nationalities of the 10 new cases of coronavirus on the stricken cruise ship on Japan. The Guardian’s Tokyo correspondent, Justin McCurry, says there are four Japanese, two each from the US and Canada, and one each from New Zealand and Taiwan.

------------------------------

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/64/8b/aa/648baa91f3fc2c73a47971eb1f4b6073.jpg)

------------------------------

EARTH ABIDES by George R. Stewart

... If a killing type of virus strain should suddenly arise by mutation ... it could, because of the rapid transportation in which we indulge nowadays, be carried to the far corners of the earth and cause the deaths of millions of people. ...

 -- W. M. Stanley, in *Chemical and Engineering News,* Dec. 22, 1947.

Chapter 4.

... Close to the shore of Governor's Island a large liner was beached. She must have been run aground at high tide, and now at low tide she loomed up far above the water, canted at a crazy angle. Secretly infected before leaving Europe, before long with passengers and crew alike dead and dying, that ship must have made desperately for port--for a port which itself had strangely ceased to send out signals.

No tugs came out to meet her. Perhaps a dying boatswain on the bridge lacked even the crew to drop an anchor, and with dimming eyes merely steered her toward the mudbank. There she would rest, and doubtless the waves would wash up mud against her obstructing bulk, and in a century she would be almost indistinguishable--the rust-covered center of a little island with trees growing up around her. ...


http://bamfordsworld.weebly.com/uploads/8/7/0/3/8703302/george_a._stewart_-_earth_abides.pdf
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 02:48:32 AM
--------------------------------

Why China Is In the Grips of a Facial Mask Shortage as Coronavirus Death Toll Grows

China is experiencing a severe shortage of facial masks used to contain the spread of coronavirus, as surging demand has emptied shelves across the country and led to shortages from Tokyo to Toronto.

In Shanghai, mask sales jumped from roughly 10,000 per day to 3 million during the Lunar New Year holiday, according to government media in the city.

China is capable of producing 20 million masks per day, with medical equipment producers running at about 60 per cent capacity at the moment, according to authorities. However, it can only make about 600,000 N95 masks per day, which were capable of preventing the inhalation of 95 per cent of particles.

Meanwhile, millions of “fake” masks purportedly built by Chinese medical hygiene manufacturer Henan Piaoan have also flooded the market. The masks, made of substandard materials, were sold across the country and have been condemned by the company.

China has halted exports of raw materials and equipment used to make masks, including to Korea and Vietnam, disrupting supply chains at a time when a growing number of virus cases were being reported across the globe.

Beijing has also been sourcing masks from overseas, importing 220 million masks between January 24 and February 2, including 50 million masks on Monday alone, China’s customs agency said.

https://youtu.be/z1oQJECRjuI

-----------------------------

Coronavirus: Rice, Toilet Paper and Dried Goods Fly Off Shelves as Rumours Spark Panic Buying in Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049237/coronavirus-rice-toilet-paper-and-dried-goods-fly

Hygiene products including tissues , wipes, hand soaps and disinfectants also among bestselling items in supermarkets

A major supermarket chain ­dismissed online claims of ­impending toilet paper shortages as ‘solid rumour’.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SCMPHongKong/status/1225214684715835393

----------------------------

Coronavirus: AI Firms Deploy Fever Surviellance Systems in Beijing
https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3049215/ai-firms-deploy-fever-detection-systems-beijing-help-fight-coronavirus

Beijing authorities are scrambling to deploy more advanced artificial intelligence-powered temperature screening systems at various locations to keep the new coronavirus from spreading, as millions of Chinese return to work after an extended Lunar New Year holiday.

National AI leaders Megvii and Baidu, which are both based in the nation’s capital, have introduced their systems in response to the call made last month by Zhongguancun Science City, the administrator of Beijing’s innovation parks, to improve temperature monitoring in the city.

Megvii said on Tuesday that pilot programmes for its remote fever detection system have been set up in the city’s Mudanyuan subway station and at a government administration building in the northwestern district of Haidian. That followed online search giant Baidu’s activation of infrared sensors at Qinghe station on Sunday.

(https://video.newsserve.net/700/v/20200122/2001200000-Infrared-thermometers-installed-at-stations-and-airport-in.jpg)

Megvii’s remote fever detection system can measure a person’s temperature in a crowd at a distance of up to five metres. The system was designed to work through masks and hats worn by people, with a margin of error within 0.3 degrees Celsius, according to the company.

It said the system, which covers as many as 16 checkpoints at one station, can measure the temperature of up to 15 people per second, quickly locate a person in a group image and send fever alerts, while requiring just one staff on site, according to a Megvii representative.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 03:27:16 AM
Large Testing Lab Opens in Wuhan to Find Cases (4:17 p.m. NY)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-04/china-will-soon-find-out-if-mass-quarantine-worked-virus-update

The Chinese medical technology firm BGI Group said it has opened a lab in Wuhan, where the outbreak is centered, that can test 10,000 samples a day to diagnose the coronavirus there.

Reports from Wuhan portray a health-care system overrun by the virus, potentially leading to significant underdiagnosis of patients. The new 2,000-square-meter (21,528-square-foot) Huo-Yan, or “Fire Eye” laboratory, promises to greatly accelerate testing cases to eliminate or confirm suspected infections as soon as possible, the Shenzhen, China-based company said Thursday in a statement.

{...expect large jump in number of confirmed positive cases in coming days)

---------------------------

CDC Begins Shipping Virus Test Kits (1:25 p.m. NY)

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention started shipping new test kits that can detect the coronavirus on site to 200 laboratories in the U.S. and 200 others outside the country. Previously, samples had to be sent to the agency’s headquarters in Atlanta.

Each kit can process 700 to 800 samples, allowing for more than a quarter-million people to get their results and potentially relieving the burden on overwhelmed health systems, said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. It will take a few days before widespread use can begin, she said.

“By the start of next week, we expect there to be much enhanced capacity for laboratory testing closer to our patients,” Messonnier said on a briefing with reporters Wednesday.

----------------------------

China Seeks Patent for Gilead’s Experimental Drug (1:01 p.m. HK)

China has applied for a new patent on an experimental Gilead Sciences Inc. drug that its scientists believe might fight the coronavirus.

It has applied for a patent for the use of the drug, know as remdesivir, to treat the novel coronavirus. The move is a sign that China views Gilead’s therapy as one of the most promising candidates to fight the outbreak. A patent battle may affect Gilead’s control over the drug in China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 06, 2020, 04:05:54 AM
...
EARTH ABIDES by George R. Stewart
...
http://bamfordsworld.weebly.com/uploads/8/7/0/3/8703302/george_a._stewart_-_earth_abides.pdf
My brother 'made' me read this book when I was 12 or 13.  It has influenced my outlook on live ever since.  (I re-read it a decade ago after finding a copy in a library's 'we're getting rid of these old books' sale.  We're in a more dangerous world then the described world circa 1950.)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wdmn on February 06, 2020, 04:54:45 AM
Since we're talking books, I highly recommend -- in times of sickness or health -- Albert Camus' The Plague.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 06, 2020, 11:09:24 AM
...
EARTH ABIDES by George R. Stewart
...
http://bamfordsworld.weebly.com/uploads/8/7/0/3/8703302/george_a._stewart_-_earth_abides.pdf
My brother 'made' me read this book when I was 12 or 13.  It has influenced my outlook on live ever since.  (I re-read it a decade ago after finding a copy in a library's 'we're getting rid of these old books' sale.  We're in a more dangerous world then the described world circa 1950.)
I donated that book to the Memory Of Mankind time capsule.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 06, 2020, 01:10:43 PM
I asked the Skeptoid website (which does  skeptical reviews of pop culture memes every Tuesday) to comment on the rumor that the coronovirus is a biowar product.
Here is the January 28 reply:
Quote
I don't cover current events on Skeptoid... episodes are designed to be evergreen, and 3 months from now nobody will even remember the Kung Flu.
Let's check back on April 28.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 06, 2020, 01:34:12 PM
New graph of international cases via EU CDC.  This graph is really showing its weakness and I think I'll discontinue posting it daily.  There is better analytics out there by now.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 01:52:56 PM
China Tightens Social Media Censorship Amid Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/tech/policy/article/3049342/coronavirus-china-tightens-social-media-censorship-amid-outbreak

China’s internet watchdog is tightening controls on social media platforms after a brief period of tolerance, as it cracks down on content that may sow fear and confusion amid the coronavirus crisis.

The Cyberspace Administration of China (CAC) said in a statement released late on Wednesday that it has set up supervision on platforms that include those run by microblogging service provider Sina Weibo, short video and news apps operator ByteDance, and Tencent Holdings, which owns the ubiquitous multipurpose app WeChat.

The watchdog said it has also removed a social app called Pipi Gaoxiao from app stores for “posting harmful videos, and spreading fear and panic” about the coronavirus outbreak, as well as taken down some media and blogger accounts for fake news.

The social media clampdown followed a directive on Monday from President Xi Jinping, who said the government needed to step up propaganda and strengthen online media control to maintain social stability amid the coronavirus crisis, according to a report from state news agency Xinhua. ...

(... The War Will Not Be Televised)

-------------------------------

Coronavirus: Thousands More Cruise Passengers May Be Exposed to Deadly Infection
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049318/coronavirus-thousands-more-cruise-passengers

Ship’s operator admits World Dream made three more trips than first revealed as thousands remain trapped on board

Cruise line returned to city after being denied entry into Kaohsiung, but that was its fourth trip after eight infected passengers had disembarked

https://youtu.be/ZuACI-S14tw

A British man who is among 3,700 people under a coronavirus quarantine on a cruise ship in Japan has voiced concerns over ongoing monitoring for the disease on board.

.... “What health checks have we had in the last three or four days, or since the health check when the quarantine officers came on board? None whatsoever,” Abel said

... "There has been no health check, so we do not know whether there are people on board still who have got symptoms that may have the virus. We do not know."

"So I am now getting a fraction concerned about the health checks that I believe should be taking place, because if there are more infected people on board they should be taken off."

---------------------------

Taiwan Bans All International Cruise Ships From Docking

Taiwan’s health authority banned all international cruise ships from docking at the island from Thursday amid increasing threat of the coronavirus outbreak, after 10 more people were tested positive for the virus on a quarantined cruise liner in Japan, Reuters is reporting.

Taiwan has also said it will suspend entry for all Chinese citizens who live in mainland China from Thursday.

------------------------------

China's Nanchang City to Limit Access to Villages, Compounds to Prevent Virus Spread

The Chinese city of Nanchang, the capital of Jiangxi province, which neighbours Hubei, will strictly monitor the entry and exit of residents from villages and residential compounds as it steps up its efforts to control the spread of the coronavirus.

The city, which has a population of 5 million people, said on its official Weibo social media account that each family should assign one member to go out once every two days, and that people running fevers must go to a medical facility.

Jiangxi province is separated from Hubei by the Yangtze river

https://youtu.be/vG-ffllWMZE

----------------------------

Shanghai neighbour Zhejiang imposes draconian quarantine
 
In the Chinese coastal province of Zhejiang, some 560km (350 miles) east of where the new coronavirus originated, at least four cities have introduced measures that mirror the draconian rules established by Hubei province – epicentre of the outbreak – to keep the virus from spreading.

In the Zhejiang cities of Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Ningbo and Taizhou – which have a combined population of more than 30 million – each household is being issued a “passport”, usually a piece of paper that carries one’s name, home address and an official stamp. Only one person per household is permitted to leave their home every two days.

Authorities in Zhejiang, which neighbours the port city of Shanghai, have closed “unessential” public venues, banned funerals and weddings, limited the number of times people can go out and quarantined families at home, sometimes by locking them in.

---------------------------

Coronavirus: Community Outbreak Declared in Hong Kong
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049297/coronavirus-community-outbreak-declared-hong-kong

A top microbiologist has declared a community outbreak of the deadly coronavirus in Hong Kong as a government adviser revealed mainland Chinese entering the city could be quarantined in hotels or public facilities under compulsory restrictions taking effect on Saturday.

The dreaded confirmation of a local spread came a day after the government said all travellers from the mainland, including Hong Kong residents, would be placed on a mandatory 14-day quarantine as part of its escalated response to the contagion.

----------------------------

Hong Kong Police, Fire Services to Form Contingency Teams to Provide Support in Battle Against Coronavirus

Sources say the exact job nature of the units is still being discussed, while force sends internal memo to officers inviting colleagues to join

Firefighters will offer similar teams for quick response to emergencies near quarantine zones

------------------------------

Coronavirus: South Korea On Lookout for Infected Patients Who Do Not Show Symptoms

Authorities have called for a closer eye on asymptomatic patients after a woman tested positive for the virus after initially testing negative

---------------------------

Number of Quarantine Citizens in US Approaches 400

In the United States, another 350 American evacuees from Wuhan have been placed under quarantine at two military bases in California, Reuters reports.

It brings to nearly 400 the number of people subject to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s first public health quarantine in 50 years.

“We are in a critical time period in the international spread of the virus, and this action is necessary to try to prevent the spread here,” said Dr Christopher Braden, deputy director of the CDC’s National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases.

------------------------------

Korean Air flight Diverted to Los Angeles for Virus Screening

A Korean Air flight headed to Las Vegas from the South Korean capital, was diverted to Los Angeles on Wednesday over concerns that some of the passengers might have been exposed to a new virus, the airline said.

The flight was diverted after it was determined that the three passengers had been in China within 14 days of their departure from Incheon International Airport in Seoul.

The three passengers, all US passport holders, were allowed back on the flight after showing no symptoms during a screening at Los Angeles International Airport, the airline said in statement.

---------------------------

S&P says German carmaker Volkswagen stands to take the biggest hit from factory shutdowns in Hubei province, the epicentre of the virus outbreak, because it makes almost 40% of its cars and components in China.

--------------------------------

David Heyman, professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene, said:

... "The full potential of this virus is not yet known. Will this virus become a virus which is endemic in humans and continue to transmit in the coming years?

We don’t understand the spectrum of the disease. We don’t know how many infections are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms like cold, so it is impossible to identify all cases."

...“It’s becoming increasingly clear that containment is very unlikely,” Frieden said. “It probably isn’t worth giving up, but trying to contain Wuhan coronavirus like Sars and Mers is very unlikely, just because of the number of cases and the number of [Chinese] provinces and the ease with which it is easily spreading in families.”

--------------------------

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/d252ffb5dd5bf822856a2ebe78b5f7acb6d0eb9d/0_0_1235_752/master/1235.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=5f58a700ae940fc4e4b4b0a8374d2990)

-------------------------------

China is not prepared for the scale of the coronavirus outbreak it is facing, but has mobilised the entire country to tackle the epidemic, Beijing’s ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, has said.

Answering questions from the media this morning, Liu said:

.... "I can’t say China is prepared for this outbreak, we don’t have enough beds or hospitals. That’s why we have built two emergency hospitals in just ten days."

He added that the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, had held a meeting yesterday in which he had instructed medical personnel to work “around the clock” to treat patients.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 06, 2020, 02:11:06 PM
**thoughts before reading latest Vox update**

I thought this would be contained by now. The data from yesterday leads me to believe that it is not contained in China, but it may be contained in the rest of the world.

 The severity of the disease is worse in China than in international cases, but this may be due to sample size and better personalized care. One thing is for sure, the severity of the disease will increase if health services and supply lines are overwhelmed.

I still have not seen any good evidence indicating widespread of asymptomatic carriers.  Asymptomatic patients are much less likely to shed and/or aerosolize virus than people with symptoms. No doubt there is a large number of uncounted cases but not orders of magnitude higher.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 06, 2020, 02:13:59 PM
(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_full/public/images/novel-coronavirus-nCoV-geographical-distribution-world-6-february-2020.jpg)


So, the light grey areas. How well do we think they are testing for nCoronavirus?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 02:32:51 PM
Agreed Archimid.

I think this will be our 'Year of Living Dangerously'

--------------------------

Wuhan Told To Round Up Infected Residents for New Mass Quarantine Camps.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

A senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents in the city who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine, or in designated hospitals.

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier
tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.

“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

A lockdown across the city and much of its surrounding province has exacerbated a shortage of medical supplies, testing kits and hospital beds for those sickened by the coronavirus. Many residents, unwell and desperate for care, have been forced to go from hospital to hospital on foot, only to be turned away from even being tested for the virus, let alone treated. They have had to resort to quarantines at home, risking the spread of the virus within families and neighborhoods.

The city has set up makeshift shelters in a sports stadium, an exhibition center and a building complex.

... When Ms. Sun inspected one of the shelters, set up in Hongshan Stadium on Tuesday, she emphasized that anyone who should be admitted must be rounded up, according to a Chinese news outlet, Modern Express. “It must be cut off from the source!” she said of the virus. “You must keep a close eye! Don’t miss it!


... A widely shared post on Weibo, a popular social media site, said on Thursday that “conditions were very poor” at an exhibition center that had been converted into a quarantine facility. There were power failures and electric blankets could not be turned on, the user wrote, citing a relative who had been taken there, saying that people had to “shiver in their sleep.”

There was also a staff shortage, the post said, where “doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms and distributing medicine,” and oxygen devices were “seriously lacking.”

Some comments on Chinese social media compared the scenes of rows of cots to those from the Spanish flu in 1918.

(https://api.wbez.org/v2/images/4a33046a-496d-4b59-bc3b-b056d8c4302b.jpg?width=640&height=312&mode=FILL&threshold=0)
Quarentine Hospital - Spanish Flu - 1918

---------------------------------

Coronavirus: U.S. Strategy for Now Isn’t to Stop It, But to Slow It

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention expects to find more coronavirus cases in the United States, and more cases involving person-to-person transmission. Still, it says, the risk to the American public is low.

"It's important to know that this strategy is not meant to catch every single traveler returning from China with novel coronavirus," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a press briefing Monday. "Given the nature of this virus and how it's spreading, that would be impossible. But working together, we can catch the majority of them."

The goal instead is "to slow the entry of this virus into the United States," she said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2020, 02:34:10 PM
Professor Neil Ferguson on the current 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak:

https://youtu.be/ALQTdCYGISw

Plus "Third coronavirus case confirmed in UK":

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51398039
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: sark on February 06, 2020, 02:39:00 PM
Did I hear that screening & surveillance is picking up 10% or less in China, currently maybe 25% internationally?  This doesn't state what the detection rate could be in the wealthy nations.

disease course is amazingly well adapted to global spread.  in storytelling, this virus is magnificent.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 06, 2020, 02:58:49 PM
Quote
But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.

The severity rate is lower outside China where individuals are getting the combined resources of nations, the best physicians, pristine isolation rooms. Inside china, people are getting mass casualty level care. In one of these camps ... well they will get camp level care.

I'm trying to process this. This is a nightmare scenario. As an agnostic person, I find myself praying for these people.

SO.

Quote
Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.


Wrong wrong wrong. If a patient is already febrile and coughing, the people surrounding them must be assumed infected too. Families should stay together, even if isolated in their own homes. I 100% guarantee you that a quarantined family will fare better than in tents. I also guarantee you that a large number of parents will break quarantine if their family nucleus is threatened to be separated. I know I wouldn't let the government take a loved one that I know I can care better for than in a tent.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 03:19:28 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hhzEhUorALU
Contagion - "We just need to make sure that nobody knows, until everybody knows."

---------------------------

All UK hospitals have been told to prepare secure coronavirus zones to “avoid a surge” in emergency departments, a leaked NHS letter has shown.

The letter, dated 31 January, tells hospitals to set up “coronavirus priority assessment pods”, which can be decontaminated after each use.

All chief executives and medical directors are instructed to have the pods up and running by Friday 7 February.

Prof Keith Willett, who is leading the NHS’s response to coronavirus, told NHS bosses in the letter: “Plans have been developed to avoid a surge in emergency departments due to coronavirus.

Quote
... Although the risk level in this country remains moderate (... up from low), and so far there have been only two confirmed cases, the NHS is putting in place appropriate measures to ensure business as usual services remain unaffected by any further cases or tests of coronavirus.

Trusts are being asked to organise a coronavirus priority assessment pod, which will mean people with symptoms indicative of infection will get quick assessment, while other patients also continue to get appropriate care.

----------------------------

China May Delay Its Annual Meeting of Parliament Due to the Coronavirus
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-congress/china-may-delay-annual-meeting-of-parliament-due-to-virus-outbreak-sources-idUKKBN2000E6

China is considering delaying the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, made up of around 3,000 delegates, in March, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter. The meeting that is scheduled for Mar. 5 is used to pass laws and unveil China's economic targets for the year.

... “A delay is one of those options,” the official said. “It should come as no surprise given that we are in a very difficult time.”

-------------------------------

China Confirms 19 Foreign Nationals Have Been Infected

China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that data from a "competent authority" confirmed, as of noon Thursday, 19 foreign nationals have contracted the new coronavirus. Two of them had been cured and discharged from the hospital while 17 are undergoing treatment in isolation, the ministry said.

... Hua did not specify the nationalities of the infected foreign nationals.

----------------------------

Two more coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Singapore, bringing the total number of cases in the country to 30.

-----------------------------

Philippine Central Bank Cuts Rates, Warns Coronavirus Could Have an 'Adverse Impact' On Economic Activity

The Philippine central bank said Thursday that it had lowered the rate on its overnight reverse repurchase facility by 25 basis points to 3.75%, adding it was prepared to trim rates further if necessary to protect economic growth.

... In a statement published Thursday, the central bank said the spread of the coronavirus "could have an adverse impact on economic activity and market sentiment in the coming months."

----------------------------

Tesla Temporarily Closes China Stores Amid Coronavirus Fears

Tesla has temporarily closed its stores in mainland China as of Sunday, Feb. 2, according to an online post from a company sales employee on that date.

------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 03:47:11 PM
Epidemiologist Warns Lawmakers: US Can't Keep Coronavirus 'Out of Our Border'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/05/epidemiologist-warns-lawmakers-us-cant-keep-coronavirus-out-of-our-border.html

U.S. travel restrictions implemented in recent days to keep a fast-moving virus that has crippled much of China from spreading across America won't work, a top epidemiologist told U.S. lawmakers.

... "I have never seen instances where that has worked when we are talking about a virus at this scale," epidemiologist Jennifer Nuzzo, a senior scholar at Johns Hopkins University's Center for Health Security, testified before the House Foreign Affairs subcommittee.

... Somewhere in between, infected people are going to be missed, she said.

“For that, and other reasons, I do not believe we’re going to be able to keep the virus out of our border,” she said, adding that a bigger concern is that the travel restrictions and mandatory quarantines are diverting resources away from fighting the virus. One public health department has 31 health-care workers monitoring two quarantined patients 24 hours a day, she said. “As this epidemic grows, that’s not likely to scale,” she said.

----------------------

Australia PM: Economic Impact is Going To Be ‘Very Significant’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison told Sydney’s 2GB radio on Thursday that he expects the economic impact from the new coronavirus to be “very significant,” owing to the country’s increased exposure to China, in terms of the number of Chinese visitors and students it receives.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner.

“We can’t pretend there’s no impact to a global virus like this, and we can’t pretend that we can make it like the day it was before the virus struck,” Morrison said, pointing out in previous instances of viral outbreaks, tourism in Australia dented in one quarter before bouncing back in the next.

-----------------------

Beijing City Bans Group Meals

The city of Beijing said on Wednesday that caterers and individuals are not allowed to organize group gatherings, and that previous arrangement should be canceled or postponed. Rural collectives are also prohibited from organizing banquets, whether for festivals, birthdays or school promotions.

As of Sunday night, Beijing had more than 200 confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, with more than half due to group gatherings, according to state media. Hotels and catering services contributed 11.11 billion yuan ($1.6 billion) to Beijing’s GDP in the first quarter of 2019, or 20% of the total for the year, according to official data accessed through Wind Information.

-------------------------

Millions of Chickens in China Could Be Wiped Out

Hundreds of millions of chickens in China are at risk of being wiped out as the shutdowns have hit supply chains. Transport restrictions are preventing much-needed animal feed such as soybean meal from getting delivered to poultry farms, according to analysts and Chinese state media.

There are over 300 million chickens in the virus epicenter of Hubei alone putting farmers in a dire situation, a local poultry association said.

(... During the 1918 Spanish Flu food was local. ... Not anymore)

------------------------

New York City Tests 5 People for Potential Coronavirus

The New York City Department of Health said it now has five “patients under investigation” for the virus and is awaiting test results on four of them from the CDC.

-------------------------

Chinese Doctor Who Tried to Warn Others About Coronavirus Dies

https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1225428566931718144

Chinese doctor Li Wenliang, one of the eight whistleblowers who tried to warn other medics of the #coronavirus outbreak but were reprimanded by local police, dies of coronavirus on Thursday in Wuhan, the Global Times has learned.

... Dr Li was summoned by police when he tried to warn others about the virus back in December.

He sent a message to fellow medics in a group chat on 30 December, and days later was summoned to the Public Security Bureau to sign a letter in which he was accused of making “false comments”.

Dr Li was one of eight people being investigated by police for “rumour-mongering”.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EQGYxWAUcAUnXiC?format=jpg&name=small)
RIP

Update:

Hospital denies that Li Wenliang, doctor who alerted authorities to the outbreak, has died

“In the fight against the pneumonia epidemic of the new coronavirus infection, our hospital's ophthalmologist Li Wenliang was unfortunately infected. He is currently in critical condition and we are trying our best to resuscitate him," it said in its official Weibo account.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 06, 2020, 04:14:27 PM
I hear late spring will break this killer cold. If so, will it disappear like SARS or will it come back every winter like the cold?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2020, 04:45:56 PM
EDIT: see also
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg248142.html#msg248142

Quote
Primary solar manufacturers in China told PV Magazine (remaining anonymous) that coronavirus has caused significant strain on their factories. They noted that they will be operating at ‘very low rates’ and will not return to a ‘normal production [rate] in the immediate future’.
____________________________________
Economic ripples of n-Coronavirus continue to spread.
All depends how long economic activity in China etc is locked down.

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/020620-chinas-cnooc-declares-force-majeure-on-lng-contracts-amid-coronavirus-outbreak
China's CNOOC declares force majeure on LNG contracts amid coronavirus outbreak
HIGHLIGHTS
Shell, Tangguh hit by CNOOC's force majeure: sources

Buyer has more than 20 mil mt/year in LNG SPAs

Other Chinese LNG importers mulling force majeure option

Platts JKM plunges to historic low of $3.15/MMBtu Wednesday
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: El Cid on February 06, 2020, 04:55:32 PM
I hear late spring will break this killer cold. If so, will it disappear like SARS or will it come back every winter like the cold?

I don't know who told you that but as Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan and HK has the most cases other than China (and Japan) I would not think that warm weather will kill this virus
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 06, 2020, 05:11:30 PM
Lets hope they are lucky. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/10000-recent-arrivals-from-china-not-in-home-isolation/articleshow/73945900.cms
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on February 06, 2020, 05:14:18 PM
I hear late spring will break this killer cold. If so, will it disappear like SARS or will it come back every winter like the cold?

I don't know who told you that but as Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan and HK has the most cases other than China (and Japan) I would not think that warm weather will kill this virus

Indeed.  Rate of spread may slow a bit in warmer months, but probably not stop.  What halted SARS wasn't weather, more that victims of SARS didn't seem to shed much virus until they were quite symptomatic.  Vigilance in dealing with symptomatic cases probably had the most effect, but that seems less likely to apply for this new virus.

My own guess is that this Wuhan virus will ultimately continue circulating in future years.  But the young seem resilient and far less likely to have severe complications.  Once all adults have been exposed, the young will be the only ones susceptible.  This is how Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) behaves.  People *do* get RSV more than once, but subsequent bouts are far less severe.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 06, 2020, 05:24:15 PM
Supply chains interrupted in India by the Corona virus. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/agra/since-outbreak-in-china-supply-of-components-has-stopped-affecting-production/articleshow/73943617.cms
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 05:35:15 PM
Lets hope they are lucky. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/10000-recent-arrivals-from-china-not-in-home-isolation/articleshow/73945900.cms

^ Based on that I give India 3 weeks before Kolkata becomes the next Wuhan

From the article:

... Times of India spoke to multiple passengers who reached Kolkata from China and Hong Kong over the past four days and all of them said that neither the airport health officers nor anyone at the immigration had asked them to stay in home isolation for the next fortnight.

A student of Shangdong First Medical University who took a China Eastern flight back from Kunming on January 31 said she visited multiple hot spots in Kolkata and stayed at a friend’s house in Odisha before travelling to her home town in Haryana. All the while she used public transport.

“At Kolkata airport I was not asked to undergo any tests apart from the thermal scan and was asked to fill up a form that had questions like my name, address and the cities I have visited in China and whether I had been to Wuhan in Hubei province in the last 14 days. It also asked if I had any symptoms of fever, cough or cold. I cleared the test and thought I was safe and didn’t need to stay indoors,” she said.
...

---------------------------

Quote from: gerontocrat
... China's CNOOC declares force majeure on LNG contracts amid coronavirus outbreak ...

They won't take it lying down ...

Total Rejects 'Force Majeure' Notice from Chinese Buyer
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200206001100173.html

A Total executive said the French energy giant rejected a force majeure notice from a buyer of liquefied natural gas in China

"Some Chinese customers, at least one, is trying to use the coronavirus to say I have force majeure," said Philippe Sauquet, head of Total's gas, renewables and power division, said as the company presented its annual results.

-------------------------

Chinese City Accused of Stealing Virus Masks from Hard-Hit Neighbour

A Chinese city with only eight confirmed cases of a new coronavirus has been accused of intercepting a shipment of surgical masks bound for a municipality with 400 cases, prompting outrage on social media.

The government of Dali city, in the southwestern province of Yunnan, was accused this week of making an "emergency requisition" of a shipment of masks bound for the hard-hit municipality of Chongqing, state media reported.

---------------------------

New Coronavirus Incident in Malaysia First Known Person to Person Case in Country

The sister of a 41-year-old Malaysian man who attended a meeting in Singapore last month has tested positive for the new coronavirus, the first known person-to-person transmission in the country, authorities in Malaysia said.

--------------------------

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106369525-1581006341804insidedoutsidechinadoubleareachart.png?v=1581006358&w=630&h=354)

----------------------------

Toyota Hunts for Alternative Auto Parts Suppliers
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Toyota Motor is looking at alternatives for the production of auto parts made in China because of the coronavirus. The company has halted production at its China plants through Sunday, but may extend the deadline if the situation worsens.

------------------------

US Couple Quarantined on Ship in Japan: 'Trump, save us'
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/02/06/cruise-ship-coronavirus-japan-diamond-princess-couple-trapped-honeymoon-hancocks-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

Good luck with that ...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Buddy on February 06, 2020, 06:12:11 PM
This is why transparency, whether in the medical field, the economic field, the political field, etc. is so important.   When people try to hide things .... it’s usually for BAD REASONS .... like MBS and Trump.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Jones on February 06, 2020, 07:34:23 PM
Lets hope they are lucky. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/kolkata/10000-recent-arrivals-from-china-not-in-home-isolation/articleshow/73945900.cms
If the Wuhan virus gets a foot hold in the Indian sub-continent, the situation will get really ugly.
They do not have the social structure to impose quarantines.
Wearing masks is not normal behaviour as it is with Chinese.
Health care facilities are far less adequate compared to China.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 06, 2020, 07:46:10 PM
And those 10 000 people, that's just one airport. Normaly there are more people arriving from China in other airports i would think. And if they just do a temperature check. Hospitals will be overrun fast if it can spread. That would be a disaster.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Paddy on February 06, 2020, 08:23:32 PM
I'm pretty sure this virus has already slipped containment. Don't just look at the countries reporting confirmed cases, look at the countries that haven't. Indonesia. Laos. Myanmar. Pakistan. Mongolia. North Korea.  Every country in Africa and South America.

China's economic growth means that the whole world has lots of transport links with it. Many of the icountries I've picked out have particularly strong economic links and two-way traffic, but no confirmed cases. I expect, personally, that this is more from a lack of monitoring than a lack of actual cases, given the non-specific symptoms and the hundreds of cases already seen in other, higher surveillance countries. Unlke its antecedants SARS and MERS, I very much expect this virus is going global.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 06, 2020, 08:35:03 PM
Bright side.
There is always one.
I expect the virus is already widespread in India and other places without the infrastructure or political landscape to cope.
We are looking at a global recession as china's dominance of widget manufacturing and just in time bites.
The USA and its present economic setting "borrow and hope" leaves them no room to move and they will get hit hard.
The good bit.
If the economy crashes Trump is unlikely to get reelected.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 06, 2020, 08:53:45 PM
I'm pretty sure this virus has already slipped containment. Don't just look at the countries reporting confirmed cases, look at the countries that haven't. Indonesia. Laos. Myanmar. Pakistan. Mongolia. North Korea.  Every country in Africa and South America.

China's economic growth means that the whole world has lots of transport links with it. Many of the icountries I've picked out have particularly strong economic links and two-way traffic, but no confirmed cases. I expect, personally, that this is more from a lack of monitoring than a lack of actual cases, given the non-specific symptoms and the hundreds of cases already seen in other, higher surveillance countries. Unlke its antecedants SARS and MERS, I very much expect this virus is going global.

And become endemic, joining the four other known coronaviruses that cause 25% of all common colds.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Paddy on February 06, 2020, 09:28:47 PM
If the economy crashes Trump is unlikely to get reelected.

Not necessarily. People often elect reactionaries when times are tough.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 06, 2020, 09:53:37 PM
The UK government is now advising people who had travelled to a number of  Asian countries and had returned to the UK and developed symptoms to immediately self-isolate and call NHS 111 for advice.

The list include Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, Nepal and Sri Lanka where cases of coronavirus have been confirmed.

-------------------------------

Update: The whistleblowing Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the coronavirus outbreak died in the early hours of Friday, a Communist party-controlled newspaper has now confirmed.

Li Wenliang, 34, was declared dead at 2.58am on Friday after “emergency treatment” at a hospital in Wuhan, the Global Times reported following hours of confusion over the ill doctor’s fate.

-------------------------------

Third UK Patient 'Caught Coronavirus in Singapore'
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51398039

-----------------------------

Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection said in a statement that it had enough test kits, using the PCR heating method, for more than 20,000 specimens, adding that it planned on “stocking up further”.

OBTW, the population of Hong Kong was estimated at 7.44 million in 2019

-----------------------------

Betcha folks in Wuhan would give their eye teeth for accommodations like this ...

Situation Heading South: 3,700 Trapped Aboard Cruise Ship After Coronavirus Embarks
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/3700-trapped-aboard-cruise-ship-after-coronavirus-embarks/

... Princess Cruise Line did not respond to repeated requests for comment from Ars, including a list of detailed questions about the cases.

For now, passengers are biding their time cooped up in their cabins while crew members scramble to figure out how to feed and entertain 3,711 quarantined passengers for 14 days.

Many who have communicated with media report a frustrating lack of communication with staff, problems with food service, and shortages of supplies, such a diapers. Some reported breakfast arriving to their cabin at nearly 2pm, worrying passengers with diabetes who need to eat regularly. Others said they were given ham sandwiches with stale bread for lunch, a significant step down from the normal fare on luxury liners.

One passenger who spoke with The Washington Post said he was glad that at least his cabin had a balcony so he could see outside and get fresh air. He expressed sympathy for his fellow passengers who were not so lucky. “Can you imagine? It would be liked being locked in a wardrobe, wouldn’t it?” he said. “No fresh air. No natural light. It really must be a living hell for them.”

Off the boat, fear is reportedly growing in Japan over the guests who left the ship on other stops before the ship was quarantined. Thirteen passengers disembarked in Naha, the capital of Okinawa Prefecture, and some of those guests left the country.

----------------------------

https://youtu.be/Tdcmcc22u4E

---------------------------

China Grows More Isolated as Airlines Cancel More Than 50,000 Flights
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html

One by one, air carriers have cut service after demand fell sharply and governments took more drastic measures they say aim to contain the spread of the diseases. These steps have left China, the world's second-largest air travel market after the U.S., more isolated.

Airlines in dozens of countries — from New Zealand to Finland to the United Arab Emirates — have scaled back service or in the case of U.S. airlines canceled flights altogether to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong as the coronavirus spreads, a factor that will drive down airlines' 2020 revenue and deprive other segments of the travel industry, including hotels and retailers, of high-spending tourists.

More than 54,011 flights, or 28% of the scheduled flights to, from and within China between Jan. 23 and Feb. 4 were canceled, 14% of them the international scheduled flights. Getting around within China is also becoming more complicated, and close to 32% of domestic flights were called off in that period, Cirium data show.

-------------------------------

Good article on treatment options ...

How Experts Plan to Treat the New Coronavirus
https://www.livescience.com/amp/possible-treatments-new-coronavirus.html

------------------------

Only a Handful of Children Have Been Diagnosed With the Coronavirus — and Experts Have a Few Guesses As To Why
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-case-children-infants-low-disease-expert-explain-why-2020-2?amp
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on February 06, 2020, 10:06:15 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Just note, this article is being deleted on multiple online forums.

New York Times 2/6/20:

Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps.Image Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital. Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital.Credit...Chinatopix, via Associated PressA senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.]

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.A lockdown across the city and much of its surrounding province has exacerbated a shortage of medical supplies, testing kits and hospital beds. Many residents, unwell and desperate for care, have been forced to go from hospital to hospital on foot, only to be turned away without being tested for the virus, let alone treated.



They have had to resort to quarantines at home, risking the spread of the virus within families and neighborhoods.The city has set up makeshift shelters in a sports stadium, an exhibition center and a building complex. Some went into operation on Thursday. The shelters are meant for coronavirus patients with milder symptoms, the government has said.When Ms. Sun inspected a shelter set up in Hongshan Stadium on Tuesday, she emphasized that anyone who should be admitted must be rounded up, according to a Chinese news outlet, Modern Express. “It must be cut off from the source!” she said of the virus. “You must keep a close eye! Don’t miss it!” Photographs taken inside the stadium showed narrow rows of simple beds separated only by desks and chairs typically used in classrooms.

Some comments on Chinese social media compared the scenes to those from the Spanish flu in 1918.According to a widely shared post on Weibo, a popular social media site, “conditions were very poor” at an exhibition center that had been converted into a quarantine facility.



There were power failures and electric blankets could not be turned on, the user wrote, citing a relative who had been taken there, saying that people had to “shiver in their sleep.”There was also a staff shortage, the post said, where “doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Paddy on February 06, 2020, 10:10:32 PM

And become endemic, joining the four other known coronaviruses that cause 25% of all common colds.

Not really equivalent - the common cold has a vastly lower (effectively negligible) mortality rate than this new zoonosis.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: harpy on February 06, 2020, 10:12:42 PM
Can someone please help explain to me

1)  What are they spraying exactly?


https://streamable.com/vzni2 (https://streamable.com/vzni2)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 06, 2020, 10:21:13 PM
Are they sending people door to door to check temperatures?
Then won’t the walking thermometers get infected and become carriers themselves?
Are they having people take their own temperature and self report?
Then wouldn’t many of them lie?
How are they testing people in Wuhan and Hubei?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 07, 2020, 02:31:56 AM
  in a world where good men like Li Wenliang are as dirt on the ground to be trod on by the boot of power , I feel the need of a miraculous transformation of humanity . This shit's beyond fixing otherwise .  .. b.c.

ps .. heart rate still 168 so i'm definitely still alive ..
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sebastian Jones on February 07, 2020, 02:39:55 AM
We hear concerns that the Wuhan virus could be impacting the global economy. What with all the airline flights being cancelled, and with a reduction in industrial activity, we may be able to detect a Wuhan effect in global CO2 levels. Which would be a good thing, considering how rapidly it has been rising this year.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 02:56:05 AM
Global = 31,368
Mainland China =  31,211
Severe/Critical = 4821
Deaths = 638

The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.

(https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/a4cd3428dbc7da7ec185cafd9eb691af1ce0a818/0_0_1301_791/master/1301.jpg?width=465&quality=45&auto=format&fit=max&dpr=2&s=051e8b6e7d111a59b9d837bfd455ef3e)

-------------------------------------

41 New Cases Confirmed On Cruise Ship In Japan, Bringing Total To 61
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3049431/coronavirus-41-new-cases-confirmed-cruise-ship-japan-bringing

The new cases raise the number of confirmed infections on board the Diamond Princess to at least 61, says Japan’s health minister

Authorities have so far tested 273 people on board the cruise liner, which has more than 3,700 passengers and crew on board

Quote
... “I keep hearing painful coughs from a foreigner in a nearby room,” one passenger wrote on Twitter, noting with concern that crew members were delivering meals from room to room. “I might get infected today or tomorrow.”
https://twitter.com/daxa_tw/status/1225173982715842560

Here are the nationalities of the newly diagnosed passengers onboard the Diamond Princess: 21 from Japan, eight from the US, five from Australia, five from Canada, one from Argentina and one from Britain.

----------------------------

Coronavirus Drives Glove Sales as Hong Kong Residents Look for Extra Layers of Protection Amid Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak

Despite global manufacturers ramping up production, gloves are becoming increasingly scarce on the city’s shelves

Doctor cautions that even if you glove up before going out, you need to wash your hands thoroughly after removing them

---------------------------

Thais Encouraged to Make Their Own Masks and Sanitisers Due to Shortage

‘If you can’t find hand sanitisers in stores, make it yourself. Mix clean water with alcohol and carry it wherever you go,’ public health minister says

Thailand has started enforcing price control measures on surgical masks and hand sanitisers, amid scarce supplies in drug stores

---------------------------

Italy Confirms a Third Case

A third coronavirus patient has been confirmed in Italy, according to an official with the Italian health ministry.

The patient was one of 56 Italian evacuees from Wuhan, who arrived in Rome on Monday and were put in a military site in Rome.

-----------------------------

... “This is almost a humanitarian disaster” for the central Chinese region, said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, who cited insufficient supplies of medical equipment, food and other necessities. “The Wuhan people seem to be left high and dry by themselves.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: wili on February 07, 2020, 03:08:48 AM
"...i'm definitely still alive " Definitely glad to hear it, be cause!

Have you tried engaging the vagus nerve? When I get tachycardia, if I can muster the energy (I find it leaves me quite despondent), if I hold my breath really really hard like I'm trying to take a shit (do it on the toilet, just in case :) ), I can generally kick my system out of it. Splashing cold water on your face is supposed to be good, too, but it never worked for me. There are lots of other techniques out there (some a bit...woo woo), so you might have to experiment a bit to see what works.

(Apologies if this is all very old news for you)

Wishing you the best--wili

On the topic of the thread--yes, a major slow down in the world economy would be a good way to lower emissions (or at least slow their increase). Ideally, this would be carefully planned so as to cause the least harm to ordinary people. But instead, we get a (likely) epidemic and probable eventual market and economic crash.

I do hope that it forever puts a damper on people's enthusiasm for cruises...a very wasteful and stupid way to travel on so many levels...
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on February 07, 2020, 03:11:50 AM
Can someone please help explain to me

1)  What are they spraying exactly?


https://streamable.com/vzni2 (https://streamable.com/vzni2)

Apparently, bleach (or other household disinfectants):

China is sending trucks to spray bleach on entire cities as the country struggles to contain the Wuhan coronavirus
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2 (https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2)

I suppose there are crazier measures one could implement.  Certainly coronaviruses should be destroyed by bleach.  But also by detergents, time, drying, almost anything.  They're pretty fragile things.  Wiping down handles and doorknobs with alcohol would have been cheaper, easier, and less likely to harm people's respiratory tracts. 

If doubling times are declining, I think it might be in part because air quality may be improving as transport and industrial activity are subsiding.  Certainly, smokers may be well-advised to redouble efforts to quit.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 03:44:04 AM
Pentagon Sets Up More Military Bases To Take In Quarantined Americans
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html

The Pentagon identified 11 military installations near major airports that can support those evacuated from China, where the current outbreak originated.

Department of Defense personnel won't be in direct contact with the evacuees and will minimize contact with personnel supporting the evacuees, officials said.

The bases are in Hawaii, Illinois, Texas, California, Georgia, New York, Washington state, New Jersey, Michigan and the District of Columbia.

--------------------------------

Second Chinese City, Xiaogan, Records More Than 2,000 Coronavirus Cases

The Chinese city of Xiaogan, around 70km north-west of Wuhan in Hubei province, has become only the second city in China (after Wuhan) to record more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

---------------------------------

Suspected Case of Deadly Coronavirus in Young Baby at Altnagelvin Hospital in Derry
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/suspected-case-of-deadly-coronavirus-in-young-baby-at-altnagelvin-hospital-1-9226254/amp

A mother and a young child have presented with symptoms consistent with the deadly coronavirus at Altnagelvin Hospital in Derry.

It is believed the mother and child recently returned to the city after visiting Hong Kong.

The UK Chief Medical Officers have assessed that the risk to the public is moderate.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Rodius on February 07, 2020, 04:03:58 AM
I am sure others have noticed this but I havent read it mentioned here (I may have missed it too)

Anyway, International cases have been lagging behind China by about two weeks (coincidence given the 2 week incubation?)

On https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
China had 278 cases two weeks ago.
Today International is 265.
This mimicking has been fairly consistent throughout.

We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect Internation is about to track upwards quickly in the next weeek.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 07, 2020, 06:55:17 AM
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
As of 2020-02-07 18:39 National Statistics

31215
confirmed
+3155 from yesterday

26359
Suspect
+4833 from yesterday

4821
Severe
+962 from yesterday

637
death
+73 from yesterday

global
confirmed
31474
death
638

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 07, 2020, 08:54:00 AM
Slightly later update in the day.

截至2020-02-06 23:26国家统计
资料说明
31,224 确诊  + 3,164   较昨日
26,359 疑似  + 4,833   较昨日
  4,821 重症  +    962   较昨日
     637 死亡  +     73    较昨日
  1,596 治愈  +    443   较昨日

As of 2020-02-06 23:26 National Statistics
data description
31,224 Confirmed  + 3,164 from yesterday
26,359 Suspect      + 4,833 from yesterday
  4,821 Severe       +    962 from yesterday
     637 Dead         +      73 from yesterday
  1,596 Recovered  +    443 from yesterday

Johns Hopkins

31,486 Confirmed
     638 Dead
  1,603 Recovered

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 07, 2020, 11:30:49 AM
Shocking moment a man walks into a Walmart with a sign on his back saying 'Caution, I have the coronavirus' and sprays Lysol on $7,000 worth of produce
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969667/Moment-man-walks-Illinois-Walmart-sign-saying-Caution-coronavirus.html
Quote
A man wearing a yellow face mask and a sign on his back reading, 'Caution, I have the Coronavirus,' walked into a Walmart store in Illinois on Sunday
The man sprayed Lysol on produce, clothing, and health and beauty items
He was with another man, who may have been filming the prankster
No one is believed to have come into contact with the disease
People are searching for the pair who caused around $10,000 of damage
An Instagram star caused carnage on board a flight from Toronto to Jamaica when he allegedly yelled he had coronavirus

People could get the novel coronavirus more than once, health experts warn — recovering does not necessarily make you immune
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2
Quote
A coronavirus outbreak that started in China has infected more than 20,000 people and killed more than 400. Cases have been recorded in 24 other countries.
So far, most patients seem to make full recoveries, but the Chinese Health Commission warns that even those who've recovered could be at risk of reinfection.
The antibodies that patients are producing so far don't necessarily last very long, one expert said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on February 07, 2020, 02:06:59 PM
We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect International is about to track upwards quickly in the next week.

Good point. I also wonder about cases in countries which do much less or no tracking/prevention. There is a story upthread about Indians returning to Kolkata, thousands of them with no request so self quarantaine. Same for many other nations in Asia and Africa.

Another interesting metric is cases in EU/US that have no relation to China.

We will see how this develops along with the supply chain disruptions.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Archimid on February 07, 2020, 02:26:29 PM
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.
(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_full/public/images/novel-coronavirus-nCoV-distribution-laboratory-confirmed-cases-worldwide-7-february-2020.png)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 07, 2020, 02:38:31 PM
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.

Suspected cases fairly flat since 31 Jan:
(https://img1.dxycdn.com/2020/0207/474/3395297054137367344-135.png)

Suspected cases should be a lead indicator compared to confirmed cases.


Flat number per day leads to straight line increase in total:
(https://img1.dxycdn.com/2020/0207/093/3395298754944114027-135.png)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 07, 2020, 02:54:48 PM
China had 278 cases two weeks ago.
Today International is 265.
This mimicking has been fairly consistent throughout.

We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect Internation is about to track upwards quickly in the next weeek.

China had 278 17 days ago on 20 Jan.

I can't see any older info to see if it mimicks.

I doubt it will trend upwards as rapidly due to better tracking of contacts, less stress on health services, reduced flights/passengers traveling, less catch up in testing out of control situation, ....

I don't think it is fully contained outside China, there are cases of people confirmed that haven't been to China, but actual number is surely a lot less than actual number of cases in China on 20 Jan and a higher proportion are suitably quarantined.
 
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: kassy on February 07, 2020, 03:14:27 PM
In the areas reporting which might be an important caveat.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 07, 2020, 03:35:04 PM
Read on the Generational Dynamics forum that pets were ordered killed in the affected areas, then order countermanded.
Total panic.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 07, 2020, 03:35:47 PM
China will return to work on Monday. Let’s see what happens then.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 04:10:26 PM
Citizen Journalist Covering Virus Missing in China (5:36 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-06/doctor-who-issued-warning-dies-deaths-top-632-virus-update

Chinese citizen journalists Chen Qiushi and Fang Bin have served as the world’s eyes and ears in the city of Wuhan. Now one of them is missing.

Chen has been out of reach for more than 20 hours. Fang, who was silent much of Friday until a video posted in the evening, was previously detained briefly by authorities for his video of corpses in a hospital.

https://youtu.be/ksuThUZQLnc

https://youtu.be/mIpIkpujAG4

https://youtu.be/sdRur94g3WM

--------------------------------

Suspected Infected Ship Docked in  New Jersey: Royal Caribbean Shares Tumble (8:39 a.m. NY)

Shares of the cruise ship operator fell in pre-market U.S. trading. Some passengers -- all Chinese nationals -- on the company’s Anthem of the Seas, which docked in Bayonne, New Jersey, on Friday morning, have shown signs of respiratory illness, website NJ.com reported.

https://youtu.be/0Mxb6LzI7uY

----------------------------

Hubei Facing Hospital Staffing Shortage (8:28 a.m. HK)

Hubei, the province under siege from the epidemic, is struggling to keep up with more than 22,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. Hubei is still facing a shortage of about 2,250 doctors and nurses, the vice governor of Hubei, Yang Yunyan, was cited as saying in the official Hubei Daily on Thursday.

That comes even as the central government had sent in 10,596 medical professionals to help fight the epidemic as of Feb. 5. Yang said retired doctors and nurses should be encouraged to return to work.

----------------------------

Researchers Defend Findings of Symptom-Free Coronavirus Spread (6:52 a.m. NY)

Researchers stood behind their finding that a woman wasn’t feeling ill at the time she set off a cluster of coronavirus cases in Germany last month, adding fuel to a debate over how the disease spreads. Their response counters a statement from German health officials earlier this week that the Chinese woman was in fact experiencing symptoms.

-------------------------

British Man On Japan Cruise Ship Tests Positive For coronavirus

A British man, 58-year-old Alan Steele, on his honeymoon is among the 61 passengers to have tested positive for coronavirus on a cruise ship in Japan.

Alan posted on Facebook:

... Just to let you all know I have been diagnosed as having the virus and am being shipped to hospital.

Would also like to say that at the moment I am not showing any symptoms so just possible a carrier. (... See Above)

Will let you know how I am going on when possible.


-------------------------

North Korea Has Reported Its First Case of the Coronavirus

North Korea has reported its first case of the coronavirus, according to South Korean media.

The patient, a woman from Pyongyang, recently returned to the North from China, the Joongang Ilbo, a daily newspaper, said on Friday, citing state-run media.

The country has taken several measures to guard against the disease - which has affected all of its neighbours - amid warnings that an epidemic could put an intolerable strain on its poor healthcare infrastructure.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

----------------------------

Singapore Reports Three More Coronavius Cases of Unknown Origin

Singapore is reporting three more coronavirus cases with no links to previous cases or travel history in China.

The country moved its disease outbreak response up a level to Orange on Friday as the new cases emerged, according to the Straits Times.

The Orange designation means the nature of disease “is severe and spreads easily from person to person,” but “has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained,” according to the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition color-coded framework.

The upgrading of the coronavirus alert level in Singapore has sparked panic-buying of essentials in some shops across the island, Reuters reports.

Quote
... With the disease reviving memories of Sars, which killed more than 30 people in Singapore and hundreds worldwide, shoppers started clearing shelves of toilet paper, noodles and rice, and formed long queues in supermarkets across the island on Friday evening, videos posted on social media showed.

(https://cdn.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/styles/1200x800/public/d8/images/methode/2020/02/07/8782f15e-49b6-11ea-befc-ef9687daaa85_image_hires_233856.jpg?itok=dLkwqNqB&v=1581089942)

-----------------------------

China Urges Employees, Clients to Scour World for Masks (5:35 p.m. HK)

As the virus triggers shortages of medical supplies in China, businesses are urging employees and their clients to bring back face masks from overseas. Meanwhile, alcohol and ethanol makers including Tsingtao Brewery Co. are shifting to produce disinfectant to help ease a shortage in medical grade alcohol, with an industry association urging others to follow suit.

-------------------------

WHO Warns of Global Shortage of Coronavirus Protective Equipment
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-warns-of-global-shortage-of-coronavirus-protective-equipment-idUSKBN2011EK

Demand for masks, gowns, gloves and other protective gear has risen by up to 100 times and prices have soared due to the China coronavirus, producing a “severe” disruption in supply, World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is reported as saying by Reuters.

“This situation is exacerbated by widespread use of personal protective equipment outside patient care,” he told reporters in Geneva, adding that he had spoken to manufacturers and distributors to ensure supplies for those who need them.

----------------------------

Mask Factory in France Gears Up As Supplies Run Short

In Angers, France, a company owned by the medical supply company Kolmi Hopen makes 170 million medical face masks a year. It isn’t enough.

As orders pour in at a staggering rate, Kolmi Hopen is hiring more workers to keep up with demand.

“We’re making masks as fast as we can,” said Guillaume Laverdure, the chief operating officer of Kolmi Hopen’s parent company, Canada-based Medicom.

“But demand is still rising,” he added

-------------------------

Coronavirus Diagnostic Test To Be Rolled Out Across UK

The test used to diagnose coronavirus is being rolled out to laboratories across the UK from Monday, increasing testing capacity to more than 1,000 people a day.

Currently coronavirus is tested and diagnosed in one laboratory in London, but testing will be extended to 12 labs across the country over the coming weeks.

---------------------------

China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/china-sacrifices-a-province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus

... The toll, which grows larger every day, reflects a local health system overwhelmed by the fast-moving, alien pathogen, making even the most basic care impossible. It’s also an ongoing illustration of the human cost extracted by the world’s largest-known quarantine, with China effectively locking down the region from Jan. 23 to contain the virus’ spread to the rest of the country, and the world.

But Hubei -- known for its car factories and bustling capital Wuhan -- is paying the price, with the mortality rate for coronavirus patients there 3.1%, versus 0.16% for the rest of China.

“If the province was not sealed off, some people would have gone all around the country to try to get medical help, and would have turned the whole nation into an epidemic-stricken area,” said Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Quote
... “It’s like fighting a war -- some things are hard, but must be done.”

... The quarantine was the right thing to do for the good of the wider population, said the doctor at the Third People’s Hospital. “Some may say Hubei was sacrificed, but it did effectively stem the spread to elsewhere.

... The idea of sacrificing one’s self for a greater, national goal is deeply-embedded in Chinese culture, and is invoked by the country’s leaders in times of hardship.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i.pF.x6z4CHg/v2/800x-1.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 04:17:59 PM
China’s Refiners Process 15% Less Crude (6:02 p.m. HK)

Oil refineries across China have cut the amount of crude they’re turning into fuels by around 15%, and could deepen those reductions in the coming weeks. State-owned and private plants have pared back refining by at least 2 million barrels a day over the last week, said people with knowledge of operations at the nation’s largest complexes.

---------------------------

China LNG Force Majeure Rejected (6:29 p.m. HK)

Two of Europe’s biggest energy companies rejected a Chinese force majeure on liquefied natural gas contracts. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA didn’t accept the legal grounds for the move by China National Offshore Oil Corp. that would have freed it from its contractual obligations to take delivery of the shipments.

-----------------------

Samsung Vietnam Sees Virus-Tied Production Problems (6:26 p.m. HK)

Samsung Vietnam’s production will face difficulties because major components including batteries and LCD screens are imported mostly from China, the news website of Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade reported.

-------------------------

Foxconn Warns Staff to Keep Away From Shenzhen Base (6:34 p.m. HK)

The company told employees at its Shenzhen facility not to return to work when the extended Lunar New Year break ends Feb. 10, according to a memo obtained by Bloomberg. Foxconn’s main iPhone-making base is farther north in Zhengzhou but coastal Shenzhen serves as its Chinese headquarters. The company also assembles a small portion of iPhones there.

----------------------------

Shenzhen Asks Drivers to Register Before Entering (7:56 a.m. NY)

China’s tech hub of Shenzhen will require that drivers register online before they enter, effective Feb. 8, according to the city’s official WeChat account.

----------------------------

World's Most Productive Car Plant Closes Over Coronavirus

Hyundai has suspended operations at its giant Ulsan complex in South Korea, the most productive car factory in the world, due to a lack of parts caused by the coronavirus lock down in China.

According to AFP, Hyundai has ran out of the engine wiring harnesses which are imported from China, and closed the factories on Friday. Hyundai said the supplier’s factory had shut down after a worker tested positive for coronavirus.

-----------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 07, 2020, 05:27:24 PM
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-dilemma-facing-china-truly-awful
Quote
As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to China, in line with the WHO recommendations that says that free-flows of people during a potential epidemic is completely fine. Of course, at home China is still under draconian lockdown, with tens of millions of people not allowed to leave their homes, and hundreds of millions more voluntarily following the same advice. Moreover, as a former Mexican ambassador to China publicly notes, when Mexico briefly suffered from H1N1 bird ‘flu back in 2009 China’s response was to ignore the WHO’s recommendations and: place all Mexican nationals in China under quarantine; cancel all direct flights to Mexico; stop issuing visas to Mexicans; and closed all its consulates in Mexico.   

Directly from zerohedge, but this seems hard to fake:
A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine
Quote
Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 05:41:03 PM
Panic Buying Shows No Sign of Ending in Hong Kong as Shoppers Urge Government To Try To Restore Public’s Confidence
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049585/coronavirus-panic-buying-shows-no-sign-ending

Those looking for cleaning supplies, tissue paper and dry goods again found only empty shelves in stores across the city

Shoppers turn to buying confectionery, snacks and drinks, despite food merchants assuring the public there will not be a food shortage

https://youtu.be/Tdcmcc22u4E

Anxious Hongkongers have been scrambling for days to stock up on essentials over fears that border restrictions to contain the coronavirus will choke off supplies. A mandatory quarantine takes effect at midnight on Friday on everyone arriving from mainland China.

---------------------------------------

Hiding Your Coronavirus History Can Give You Bad Social Credit
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3049568/hiding-your-coronavirus-history-can-give-you-bad-social-credit

Shanghai city authorities have decided that hiding your history with the novel coronavirus is enough to land you on a social credit blacklist. The new rule covers people who have concealed travel history in areas affected by the virus, such as Wuhan, or contact with patients or suspected patients, according to a decision published Friday. The rule also affects those who evade isolation for medical observation.

Over the past week, Chinese tech companies have pushed out new apps and features to show users if they traveled with coronavirus patients or which areas of a city have recorded coronavirus cases.

Social credit schemes in China are intended to act as a carrot-and-stick mechanism. They can punish individuals and businesses who fail to follow rules and regulations or offer rewards based on “good behavior.” Despite the potential impact on free speech, some experts say it could be best described as a citizen and company database. Shanghai’s social credit information site states that it compiles data on companies and individuals, including records of arrears and complaints and ability to repay debt.

-------------------------------

Baidu Map App Shows You Where Coronavirus Patients Are Located
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3049503/baidu-map-app-shows-you-where-coronavirus-patients-are-located

Chinese search giant Baidu is making it easier for people to avoid areas where the new coronavirus has spread. The company released an epidemic map for its Baidu Map app that shows the location of confirmed and suspected cases of the deadly infection in real time.

The map also shows live data on the coronavirus, including epidemic control checkpoints and traffic arrangements. This could help the millions of people in cities that have been locked down to stop the spread of the virus. Other map app makers have also been helping track coronavirus outbreaks. Qihoo 360, China’s biggest cybersecurity company, has an app feature that lets users check if they traveled by train or plane with someone who contracted the virus.

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Infected Drivers Raise Concerns for Ride-Hailing Services in China
https://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-social/article/3049544/coronavirus-infected-drivers-raise-concerns-ride-hailing-services

Didi Chuxing, operator of China’s largest ride-hailing platform, recently had one driver diagnosed with the coronavirus

...“The [coronavirus] epidemic will have a substantial impact on the ride-hailing industry because there is a probability of getting infected [by the drivers],” said Sun Naiyue, an analyst at research firm Analysys, who covers China’s broader mobility sector. “The demand has also been decreasing, as people are not going out.”

Concerns have risen over potential infections after a driver on Didi Chuxing, China’s largest ride-hailing platform, was diagnosed with the coronavirus in the past few days – one of the first confirmed cases in the industry.

Local news reports so far indicate there are at least five cases of taxi and ride-hailing drivers being diagnosed with the coronavirus. A driver in southern Hainan province, for example, continued to work via multiple ride-hailing platforms even after showing symptoms of the disease on January 27.

Didi has ceased its ride-hailing operation in Wuhan, capital of central Hubei province and epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. The company, however, has deployed special fleets of drivers equipped with protective uniforms to give free rides to all hospital staff in the city, according to its post on WeChat.

-------------------------

https://youtu.be/t7GpoRYCgbc
Face masks rationed in Macau and Taiwan amid coronavirus outbreak
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 05:54:20 PM
Indonesia Maintains It Has No Confirmed Cases

It is the world’s fourth-most-populous country, and it is a popular destination for Chinese tourists, including from Wuhan. But Indonesia still has no confirmed cases of the coronavirus, officials there insist.

On Thursday, the health ministry’s director for communicable diseases, said that none of the 243 people evacuated to Indonesia from Wuhan — 238 students and five officials from the Indonesian consulate there — showed signs of illness after being screened and quarantined. And he said until they showed symptoms, there was no need for full testing.

-------------------------

Concerns Coronavirus is Going Undetected in Indonesia
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/concerns-coronavirus-is-going-undetected-in-indonesia

There is growing concern that the new coronavirus may be going undetected in Indonesia, where officials have not confirmed a single case of infection among the 272 million-strong population despite the country’s close links to China.

A study by academics from Harvard University analysed the number of passengers taking flights from Wuhan to destinations around the world, and found that the number of cases identified in both Indonesia and Cambodia appeared below what might be expected. The study, published quickly to improve scientists’ understanding of the outbreak, has not been peer reviewed, but adds to mounting fears that cases are not being identified.

It also suggested that cases recorded in Thailand, where 25 people have tested positive, were below the number scientists might expect to see. Cambodia has so far confirmed one case of coronavirus.

Reports have questioned the ability of Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, to test for the virus, though the Indonesian health ministry said on Wednesday that it has all the necessary resources.

Indonesia, which receives significant Chinese investment, relies heavily on Chinese tourism. The country’s Chinese-Indonesians are estimated to make up roughly 3% of the population.

There is also concern over the thousands of Chinese tourists, including 200 people from Wuhan, who are reportedly stranded in Bali after direct flights to mainland China were banned by Indonesia. None of the tourists were showing symptoms, according to officials, but they are not in quarantine.

Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v1.full.pdf

-----------------------------

Indonesian Health Ministry Rushes to Equip Local Labs With Coronavirus Detector
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesian-health-ministry-rushes-to-equip-local-labs-with-coronavirus-detector

Indonesia is rushing to equip laboratories across the country with medical equipment capable of detecting the 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus, a Health Ministry official said on Friday.

As of today, only the ministry's Health Research and Development Board (Balitbangkes) in Jakarta has the equipment necessary to identify the virus.

Indonesia has not recorded any confirmed case of the pneumonia-like viral infection so far, despite confirmed cases in neighboring Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia.

Many have raised the possibility the anomaly may be a result of Indonesia's inability to detect the virus in infected patients.

-----------------------------

Fears Coronavirus Will Be Uncontainable If It Enters Indonesia
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/fears-coronavirus-will-be-uncontainable-if-it-enters-indonesia/11942054

---------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 06:01:22 PM
Read on the Generational Dynamics forum that pets were ordered killed in the affected areas, then order countermanded.
Total panic.
Guess another one of your conspiracy sites was pushing Fake News.

Starving pets trapped in empty homes in Chinese city at epicentre of coronavirus outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/video/china/3049481/starving-pets-trapped-empty-homes-chinese-city-epicentre-coronavirus-outbreak

https://youtu.be/krea5TBgtzk

Animal rescuers are bringing food and water to another group of victims of the coronavirus at the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan, China. As many as 50,000 pets have been trapped in empty homes after their owners were unable to return because of a citywide lockdown in place since January 23, 2020, according to the Wuhan Small Animals Protection Association.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 06:21:54 PM
How Long Coronaviruses Persist On Surfaces and How To Inactivate Them
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronaviruses-persist-surfaces-inactivate.html

A review article summarizes everything that researchers know about the lifetime of corona viruses on surfaces and the effect of disinfectants.

... The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan," points out Kampf.

... Tests with various disinfection solutions showed that agents based on ethanol, hydrogen peroxide or sodium hypochlorite are effective against coronaviruses. If these agents are applied in appropriate concentrations, they reduce the number of infectious coronaviruses by four so-called log steps within one minute: this means, for example, from one million to only 100 pathogenic particles.

The experts assume that the results from the analyses of other coronaviruses are transferable to the novel virus. "Different coronaviruses were analysed, and the results were all similar," concludes Eike Steinmann.

Günter Kampf et al. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents (https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltext), Journal of Hospital Infection (2020)

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV: The Largest Meta-Analysis of the Sequenced Genomes of the Virus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-ncov-largest-meta-analysis-sequenced.html

The largest analysis of coronavirus 2019-nCoV genomes that have been sequenced so far confirms that the virus originates in bats and shows a low virus heterogeneity. At the same time, researchers identified a hyper-variable genomic hotspot in the proteins of the virus responsible for the existence of two virus subtypes. The leading author of this study, published in the Journal of Medical Virology, is Federico M. Giorgi, bioinformatics researcher at the Department of Pharmacy and Biotechnology of the University of Bologna.

This new study analyzed the genomes of the 56 coronavirus strains sequenced in different parts of the world, including those extracted from the two Chinese patients held at the Infectious Disease Ward of Lazzaro Spallanzani Hospital in Rome, Italy. This is the most comprehensive study of coronavirus genomes so far conducted.

Researchers confirmed the notion that the virus probably originates from a zoonotic pathogen: its closest relative, which was isolated in the past few weeks, matches the coronavirus sequence EPI_ISL_402131 found in the Rhinolophus affinis, a medium-size Asian bat of the Yunnan Province (China). The human coronavirus genome shares at least 96.2% of its identity with its bat relative, while its similarity rate with the human strain of the SARS virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome) is much lower, only 80.3%.

The researchers have also discovered that all the existing DNA sequences of coronavirus are very similar, even if they come from different regions of China and from various parts of the world—the genomes obtained from patients since the beginning of the outbreak share a sequence identity over 99%. "The virus shows low heterogeneity and variability—this is good news," explains Federico M. Giorgi. "With a homogeneous viral population, potential drug therapies are deemed to be more effective on everyone."

However, the study identified for the first time a hyper-variable hotspot in the virus proteins, eventually pinpointing two virus subtypes. The latter differ only by a single amino acid, which is able to change the sequence and the structure of ORF8-encoded protein, a virus component yet to be characterized.

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2020/coronavirus2.jpg)

Open Access: Carmine Ceraolo et al. Genomic variance of the 2019‐nCoV coronavirus (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.02.931162v2.full.pdf), Journal of Medical Virology (2020)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 06:30:21 PM
White House Sees a Minimal Impact on US Economic Growth From Outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The White House’s economic adviser said that President Donald Trump’s administration does not expect the coronavirus in China will have a major effect on the U.S. economy. “There’s a lot of variables involved and things we don’t know. Internally we have looked at a drop in GDP of perhaps two-tenths of 1% — that’s all we found so far. Again, based on the past and based on what we’re seeing ” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters. —Reuters[/b]

---------------------------------

The Fed Flags Coronavirus as Potential Threat to US Growth
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2020-02-mpr-summary.htm

The Federal Reserve on Friday announced that it’s now monitoring the coronavirus as a potential threat to U.S. growth. The central bank wrote that “possible spillovers from the effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook. “Though recent reports have suggested steadier economic growth in Europe and China, the Fed warned the disease could “lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.” — Franck

------------------------

S&P Slashes Forecast for China's Economic Growth

S&P said it now forecast Chinese GDP growth of 5%, down from its previous estimate of 5.7%, but cautioned that it was less confident in its figures than usual because of continuing uncertainty over the severity of the outbreak.

This will flow through to the global economy because China accounts for a third of worldwide growth, S&P said.

“The global impact will be felt through four real economy channels: sharply reduced tourism revenues, lower exports of consumer and capital goods, lower commodity prices, and industrial supply-chain disruptions,” it said.

Quote
... “If the virus cannot be contained, [which is] a material risk, the economic impact could develop exponentially with significant credit implications.”

--------------------------

Global Shipping Has Been Hit By the Coronavirus. Now Goods Are Getting Stranded
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried by sea and China is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest container ports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Nearby Singapore and South Korea each have a mega port too.

"A closure of the world's manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. "This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport," Sand told CNN Business.

The shutdowns mean that some ships can't get into Chinese ports, as the loading and discharging of goods slows, said Guy Platten, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, a trade body. Others are stuck in dock, waiting for workers to return to ports so that construction and repairs can be completed, Platten added.

Still more vessels are idling in "floating quarantined zones," as countries such as Australia and Singapore refuse to allow ships that have called at Chinese ports to enter their own until the crew has been declared virus-free, added Sand. Platten said he knew of at least one crew that is running low on food because their ship has been idled for so long.

Giant shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC Mediterranean Shipping, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA-CGM have said that they have reduced the number of vessels on routes connecting China and Hong Kong with India, Canada, the United States and West Africa.

The longer the health crisis lasts, the harder it will be to move goods around the world. ... The lack of activity is reflected in oil prices, which have crashed into a bear market.

(https://cdn.cnn.com/cnnnext/dam/assets/200205081935-maersk-ship-shanghai-china-restricted-exlarge-169.jpg)

-------------------------------------

Many Global Firms, Excluded from Epidemic Insurance, Face Heavy Coronavirus Costs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-insurance/many-global-firms-excluded-from-epidemic-insurance-face-heavy-coronavirus-costs-idUSKBN1ZS1CU

(Reuters) - Many global companies from hotels and airlines to industrial houses are expected to have to foot the bill for disruptions caused by a new coronavirus in China, with epidemics usually excluded from insurance cover, experts said.

While some large global firms buy coverage for communicable diseases, most “standard insurance policies” exclude such outbreaks to keep costs low, said the lawyer, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Global insurers typically cover risks such as earthquakes and plane crashes, but have been paring back exposure to certain risks, such as shipping, to avoid huge losses.

Previous viruses, such as SARS, Ebola and Zika, have also led insurers to be more cautious about exposure, with specific virus exclusions added to most basic coverage policies, industry insiders said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 07, 2020, 07:05:02 PM
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.
(https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/styles/is_full/public/images/novel-coronavirus-nCoV-distribution-laboratory-confirmed-cases-worldwide-7-february-2020.png)

That would be a miracle. There are still a couple hundreds of thousands villages in China, with a population between a hundred and a few thousand people. These are the places from which plenty people moved to go work in or near the cities. It's to these places these 5 million people went, when they left Wuhan just before the lockdown. There they meet their family and their old friends. Who work in other cities. There was a cluster of 50 infected people in Wuhan for a month. Can you give one reason why there would not be hundreds of these clusters in these villages and towns by now ? And the standard they have in these hospitals over there is much lower. They would probably not even know if it's the flu or Corona. And some of them already went back to work last week.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 07:23:16 PM
An Interview With Li Wenliang, Days Before his Death.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Q: When did you first realize that this new virus was highly contagious? It seemed that you hadn’t taken any precautions when you were infected.

A: I knew it when the patient I came in contact with infected her family, and I was infected right afterward. Thus I discovered it was highly contagious. The patient had no symptoms, so I got careless.

...

Q: Why were you so suspicious at that point? Had you already received any news or heard anything?

A: Because there were already patients being treated under quarantine.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: TerryM on February 07, 2020, 08:01:55 PM
Vox
Wonderful reporting - Thanks


I went to my local hospital this morning in Southwestern Ontario Canada for some unrelated tests. There are hand sanitizing stations by each door with posters recommending and explaining their use. Latex gloves and a box of masks for anyone with the "sniffles" were freely available. These have all been in place since SARS hit our area particularly hard.


There are no outward indications that anything is in the offing and the parking lot wasn't overcrowded. BAU although we've had at least 3 cases confirmed within (50km?).


I picked up 2 masks and 2 pairs of gloves for future use & was relieved to see that there was no evidence of hoarding or shortages.



The calm before the storm?
Terry
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 08:08:40 PM
^
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/6c/20/83/6c208337348d3337d7c860ff58c869ae.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 07, 2020, 08:11:07 PM
looks like all semblance of the truth died 2 days ago . I always doubted the figures , now I'm sure they have abandoned any connection to reality . b.c.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 07, 2020, 08:16:26 PM
I heard this is doubling every five days. That is over a thousand times in fifty days and more than a million in a hundred.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on February 07, 2020, 09:06:50 PM
looks like all semblance of the truth died 2 days ago . I always doubted the figures , now I'm sure they have abandoned any connection to reality . b.c.

It's hard to know what to make of the drop in new cases.  It seems plausible that the extreme control measures in China have actually slowed the spread of the virus.

But the drop coincides closely with the government of China protesting vigorously against the travel restrictions placed on its citizens by other governments.  They might have concluded there was an urgent necessity to start under-counting to prevent economic collapse.

We might possibly get a better grasp of the global spread by looking at numbers of cases *outside* of China.  Many individual nations might egregiously under-report, but those that are open with their data should show whether spread is generally accelerating.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 07, 2020, 11:59:49 PM
Concerns Mount About Coronavirus Spreading in Hospitals, Study Suggests
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-hospital-transmissions-study/index.html

A new study shines a spotlight on the possible risk of hospital-related transmissions of the Wuhan coronavirus.

The study, published in the medical journal JAMA on Friday, involved analyzing data on 138 patients hospitalized with novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The data showed that hospital-related transmissions of the virus were suspected in about 41% of the patients.

Specifically, 40 health care workers in the study and 17 patients who were already hospitalized for other reasons were presumed to have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the hospital, the data showed, also revealing that 26% of all the patients were admitted to an intensive care unit and 4.3% died.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

-----------------------

Novel Coronavirus Infected 40 Staff in Single Wuhan Hospital: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-infected-staff-wuhan-hospital.html

Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.

One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.

Of the 40 infected health care workers in the JAMA study, 31 worked on general wards, seven in the emergency department, and two in the ICU.

The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.

"If true, then this confirms that some patients are likely to be far more infectious than others, and this poses further difficulties in managing their cases," said Michael Head, a global health expert at the University of Southampton said in a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.

Medical staff at the epicenter of the virus are overstretched and lack sufficient protective gear, the deputy governor of Hubei province admitted Thursday.

----------------------------

Chinese Data Shows 82 Per Cent of Cases are Deemed Mild, WHO Says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049614/coronavirus-chinese-data-shows-80-cent-cases-are-deemed-mild-who

An initial analysis of 17,000 coronavirus infections in mainland China shows that 82 per cent of the cases are classified as mild and 15 per cent as severe, and that 3 per cent of patients have developed critical symptoms, the World Health Organisation said on Friday.

(... This doesn't seem to jibe with report that you had to be near death before they would test you.????

Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead in the world health body’s emergency programme, said the data obtained from Chinese authorities also showed that “2 per cent or less than 2 per cent” of reported cases have resulted in deaths.

-------------------------

Videos Suggest Fear Mounting in Embattled City at Center of Outbreak

Videos posted to Chinese social media purportedly show a large convention center or similar building being used as a quarantine center where the infected lay helpless in close proximity, and confused relatives look on. Some witnesses claim there are no bathrooms, no running water, and even no doctors on hand at the makeshift facility.

Video at: https://mobile.twitter.com/alicedreamss/status/1225659914460119040

When asked who was in charge, a woman in one video replies, "no one is in charge." Outside the building, the sick are seen being turned away or told that once inside, they won't be allowed to leave.

------------------------

File the following under 'I Don't Know, Maybe' ...

On the one hand, Taiwan and mainland China are not the best of friends; on the other, China has a poor track record on transparency. 

If you don't lock screen when doing calculations numbers can change. But the numbers would change very rapidly on screen.

I don't think they had enough test kits during that time period to generate these numbers ...


Tencent May Have Accidentally Leaked Real Data On Wuhan Virus Deaths - Or Not
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Tencent Briefly Lists 154,023 Infections and 24,589 Deaths From Wuhan Coronavirus

... As early as Jan. 26, netizens were reporting that Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," briefly showed data on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China that was much higher than official estimates, before suddenly switching to lower numbers. Hiroki Lo, a 38-year-old Taiwanese beverage store owner, that day reported that Tencent and NetEase were both posting "unmodified statistics," before switching to official numbers in short order.

... On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.

(https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2020/02/05/1580900233-5e3a9f8931260.jpg)
Other images at link

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, a comparison with the previous day's data appears above, which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like the official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.

However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

Although some are chalking up the images to users tampering with their browsers, the 154,023 infections on Feb. 1 are remarkably close to the estimate predicted on that date by a scientific modeling study carried out by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and published on The Lancet website. The study estimates the number of cases is much more given the 2.68 spread rate per case, the doubling of total infections every 6.4 days, and known travel patterns in China and worldwide.

Another strange phenomenon that netizens have noticed is the mortality rate, as the government death tolls are routinely maintaining an exact percentile for days on end. Many noticed that in the early days of reporting, the government put the death rate at 3.1 percent.

Jan. 22: 17 deaths / 542 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 23: 26 deaths / 830 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 24: 41 deaths / 1,287 infections = 3.1 percent

By late January, the government apparently decided to set the new official mortality rate at 2.1 percent. As can be seen in the image below, the mortality rate was kept at a precise 2.1 percent, regardless of the numbers from Jan. 30 to Feb. 3:

(https://tnimage.s3.hicloud.net.tw/photos/2020/02/07/1581007238-5e3c41863c49d.jpg)

The mortality rates for the numbers briefly shown on Tencent are much higher. The death rate for Jan. 26 was 2,577 deaths out of 15,701 infections, or 16 percent.

The death rate for the Feb. 1 post was 24,589 deaths out of 154,023 infections, which also comes out to 16 percent. The death rates briefly shown are clearly vastly higher than the official percentages and substantially higher than SARS at 9.6 percent, but lower than MERS at 34.5 percent.

A spokesperson for Tencent said the screenshots were fake: “Unfortunately, several social media sources have circulated doctored images of our ‘Epidemic Situation Tracker’ featuring false information which we never published,” the spokesperson said. “Tencent does not condone the dissemination of inaccurate information and fake news especially during this sensitive period. We reserve all legal rights and remedies in this matter.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 08, 2020, 01:35:18 AM
截至 2020-02-07 15:59 全国数据统计
数据说明
较昨日变化数据:待国家卫健委数据公布中,预计 08:00 左右更新。

34,130 确诊
26,359 疑似
  4,821 重症
     718 死亡
  2,000 治愈

As of 2020-02-07 15:59 National Data System
the data shows
Changes from yesterday: To be announced by the National Health and Medical Commission, it is expected to be updated around 08:00.

34,130 Confirmed
26,359 Suspect
  4,821 Severe
     718 Death
  2,000 Recovered

Johns Hopkins
34,439 Confirmed
     720 Dead
  2,014 Recovered

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 01:55:11 AM
Update:

Global = 34,598
Severe/Critical = 6,101
Deaths = 724

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

------------------------------

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=15d6af10-e59c-4ad9-b172-0a52addceaea&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=020720

Report offers insights into why early coronavirus cases may have been missed

The infection doesn't tend to cause the sneezing and congestion often associated with being sick.

Fever appears to be a key symptom in how the virus manifests itself in patients.

... Coronaviruses, which cause respiratory infections, usually spread through the droplets that spray out when an infected person sneezes or coughs. This particular virus appears to have spread easily despite an apparent absence of sneezing, and may be a reason it circulated apparently undetected for a period of time.

"One reason for the rapid spread may be related to the atypical symptoms in the early state in some patients," the study authors wrote. That is, people may not have realized they were sick, because they didn't have the sneezing and congestion usually associated with colds.


... Just because you're well on day one or two doesn't mean you'll necessarily be well on day four, five or six.

Patients who developed complications did so about five days after they first started having the symptoms.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 08, 2020, 02:07:15 AM
From yesterday +6173
34598
confirmed

Don't know where the +6173 comes from, yesterday was showing circa 31211 so increase looks to be about 3400 not 6173.
(30.6k to 34142 is also about 3400)

Edit: Now changed to +3401
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 02:18:34 AM
Break time ...

From America's finest news source ...

‘He’s Got The Mulan Virus!’ Yells Don Jr. Attempting To Quarantine Eric By Duct Taping Garbage Bag Over Head
https://politics.theonion.com/he-s-got-the-mulan-virus-yells-don-jr-attempting-to-1841516704/amp

WASHINGTON—Kicking and punching his brother in an effort to fight the “Germans” [sic] that were swarming all over his sibling’s body, Donald Trump Jr. reportedly yelled, “He’s got the Mulan virus!” Thursday while attempting to quarantine Eric Trump by duct taping a garbage bag over his brother’s head. “Oh my God, ew, ew, ew! Eric, do you have the Mulan Virus?” said a horrified Don Jr., who, after sticking his hand into his brother’s mouth to take his temperature, screamed and immediately sprayed an “antelope” [sic] of Lysol down Eric’s throat.

“If you don’t fight the Mulan virus soon, you could invest [sic] everyone and start a worldwide academic [sic]. Seriously! Okay, now just stay still while I put a bag over my own head.” At press time, Don Jr. was attempting to create some air holes for his younger brother by repeatedly stabbing the garbage bag with a compass.

(https://images.spot.im/image/upload/q_70,fl_lossy,dpr_3,h_500,w_378,c_limit/v200/c5854f1c09ff5da94e454d9816f95fa7)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 03:08:16 AM
Back to work ...

3 New Infections On Board Cruise Ship in Japan, Bringing Total to 64
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3049629/coronavirus-three-new-infections-board-cruise-ship-japan

Three more people on a cruise ship quarantined in Yokohama have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the health ministry said Saturday, bringing the total number of people from the vessel infected to 64.

Kyodo News reported, citing the health ministry, that the three new cases include two Americans and one Chinese national

The new cases came a day after Japan confirmed on Friday 41 people tested positive for the coronavirus, as thousands of passengers remained confined to their cabins, only allowed on deck briefly for fresh air.

About 3,700 people are on board the Diamond Princess, which usually has a crew of 1,100 and a passenger capacity of 2,670.

The Princess Cruise website describes the ship as “your home away from home” and it will remain so for most passengers at least until February 21.

On board, passengers were finding out about the new infections from the internet before they were announced on the ship, said a Hong Kong man, who declined to be identified.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/25/6c/53/256c536091a38a0c0e041f26cf955479.jpg)
Welcome to your 'forever home'

---------------------------

On Cruise Ship Quarantined In Japan, Any New Cases Would Reset The Isolation Clock
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc

People who are quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan have been wondering how long their isolation would last. On Friday, a health official gave an answer they might not like: the quarantine will be extended every time a new case of the Wuhan coronavirus is confirmed on the ship.

... To detect any new cases aboard the ship, the crew has distributed thermometers to passengers so they can monitor themselves

... Japan’s health ministry said it does not currently have plans to test everyone on board.

“Our current policy is to test passengers if the symptoms of the virus appear,” a Japanese government official who was not authorized to be named told reporters late Friday. “And in addition, we will test those at high risk, meaning who had close contacts with them.”

... Growing desperate after days of being cooped up, Vana Mendizabal, 69, suddenly realized: What if her only escape route from the ship and the mandatory 14-day quarantine would be to come down with the virus? ... Her travel insurance won’t arrange an evacuation unless she falls ill.

------------------------

... Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
'Relax' said the night man,
'We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like,
But you can never leave!'

- Hotel California   


----------------------------

Another cruise ship, the Westerdam, is at sea, and its crew is unsure where to go next, after being denied entry to the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. Passengers blame an ill-advised port stop in Hong Kong, where the boat took on many new passengers.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200208_15/amp.html

------------------------

Norwegian Cruise Line Announces It, Too, Will Keep Chinese Passport-Holders Off Its Ships

(Washington Post) - The parent company of Norwegian Cruise Line became the latest cruise operator to ban Chinese nationals from sailing late Friday.

“Any guest that holds a Chinese, Hong Kong or Macau passport will be unable to board any of our ships, regardless of residency,” the company, which also owns Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, said in a travel alert.

... The announcement followed a similar one by Royal Caribbean Cruises, the world’s second-largest cruise operator. The company, whose lines include Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises, put the policy in place Thursday, chief communications officer Rob Zeiger said.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 08, 2020, 03:56:26 AM
Update:

截至 2020-02-07 17:33 全国数据统计
数据说明

34,598 确诊 + 3,401 较昨日
27,657 疑似 + 4,214 较昨日
  6,101 重症 + 1,280 较昨日
     723 死亡 +      86 较昨日
  2,052 治愈 +    510 较昨日

As of 2020-02-07 17:33 National Statistics
the data shows

34,598 Confirmed + 3,401 compared to yesterday
27,657 Suspected + 4,214 compared to yesterday
  6,101 Severe      + 1,280 compared to yesterday
     723 Deaths      +     86 compared to yesterday
  2,052 Recovered +   510 compared to yesterday


Johns Hopkins
34,831 Confirmed
    723 Dead
 2,063 Recovered

It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%).

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir
2) Remdesivir
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 05:31:36 AM
It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%). ...

Sam
Excellent analysis Sam

The visual analogy of what your describing brings to mind an aggregate depletion curve of a field of fracking wells. Each individual has a fast rise (an acute phase) followed by a long tail (a convalescent phase). When summed together you get something like this ...

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2013/newrigorousa.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 05:55:22 AM
Hong Kong Government Scrambles to Buy More Masks After Revealing It Only Has 12 Million Left
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049631/hong-kong-government-goes-global-search-face

The Hong Kong government is scrambling to buy more face masks after revealing it only has 12 million left, enough for3-4 weeks, as the battle against the deadly coronavirus outbreak continues.

That number includes 3 million pieces set aside to cover the needs of government departments, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau said.

University of Hong Kong medical expert Ho Pak-leung has previously estimated that Hong Kong could consume 300 million masks a month during the epidemic

... Private doctors have said they were also running low, and at least 15 private clinics have had to close, while a doctors’ association warned 400 more could run out in the next two weeks.


Priority would be given to health workers, frontline personnel who provided services to the public, and members of the public and staff in quarantine centres.

Finance minister says government has ordered 48 million more

Government approached 400 suppliers in about 20 countries in bid to source more masks.

-----------------------------

12 days ago

... The authority has said there are enough stocks of masks in public hospitals for at least three months
.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg246662.html#msg246662

-----------------------------

American Citizen Dies in Wuhan, NYT Says: Virus Update

An American citizen has died in Wuhan from the coronavirus outbreak, the New York Times reported.

The person died on Thursday, the paper said, citing a U.S. embassy statement. The death toll from the outbreak is inching closer to the total from SARS and may surpass the threshold today or tomorrow if the disease continues to kill people at its current pace.

-----------------------

Japan Says Citizen Suspected of Coronavirus Dies in Wuhan (12:20 p.m. HK)

A Japanese man suspected to have been been infected with the new coronavirus died in a Wuhan hospital, Japan’s foreign ministry said.

The cause of death was stated as viral pneumonia as it’s been difficult to conclude definitively that he had the virus, though there was a high suspicion that he contracted it, the ministry said in a statement Saturday, citing Chinese authorities. The man was in his 60s.

-------------------------------

Medical Supply Chain From China Unaffected (3:30 p.m. NY)

The coronavirus hasn’t led to any disruptions in the U.S. in the supply chain of medical and protective gear, much of which is made in China, officials from President Donald Trump’s task force said at a briefing Friday where they updated the public on progress.

(... they can lie as well as Beijing)

-----------------------------

Coronavirus Puts a Bump in China’s Belt and Road Investment Plan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3049564/coronavirus-puts-bump-chinas-belt-and-road-investment-plan

Major projects under Beijing’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure development scheme held up as Chinese workers face obstacles getting back into Pakistan, Bangladesh

But deadly virus unlikely to derail China’s connectivity ambitions, as host nations need its money too much, observers say

https://youtu.be/8mlIfNoLMaM

-----------------------------

Communist Party Sends Senior Cadres to Wuhan Amid Rising Anger
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049623/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-81-new-deaths-and-2841

The former party secretary of Wuhan – the provincial capital of Hubei – and a deputy head of the National Health Commission are taking charge of the local anti-epidemic campaign, as large numbers of patients remain untreated and local officials face a storm of criticism, according to Chinese media.

... The dispatch of the two senior cadres to Wuhan followed the announcement on Friday that the ruling Communist Party’s top anti-corruption body was sending investigators to the city to probe issues relating to whistle-blower doctor Li Wenliang, who died of the coronavirus.

“At present, Hubei province and Wuhan city may not only need more medical workers and various materials, but also need to strengthen the organisational power, people who can judge accurately, make decisive decisions, and implement quickly,” Taoran Notes said.

----------------------------

Kenya to Bring Its Wuhan Students Home and Urges Ethiopia To Suspend China Flights
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049618/coronavirus-kenya-bring-its-wuhan-students-home-and-urges

President Uhuru Kenyatta says students who want to be repatriated must undergo a mandatory 14-day quarantine in Kenya

Urging Ethiopia to halt China flights ‘is about protecting our citizens from the risk of infection’, Kenyatta says

-----------------------------

India Is Monitoring More Than 6,000 People With China Travel History

NEW DELHI — India is gearing up for a protracted fight against the spread of coronavirus, monitoring more than 6,000 people with a recent history of travel to China and identifying enough isolation facilities to “manage any outbreak,” the country’s health minister said Friday.

Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said 1,305 samples have been tested for the virus. Of those, 1,282 were negative, 20 tests are still in progress, and three samples came back positive. The positive cases are from three different cities in the southern state of Kerala and involve people who were recently in Wuhan.

Vardhan said India has 12 laboratories capable of testing for the virus, and the government has offered help to other countries in the region, including Afghanistan, Bhutan and Maldives.

Population of India = 1.2 Billion
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 08, 2020, 08:01:43 AM
Excellent analysis Sam

The visual analogy of what your describing brings to mind an aggregate depletion curve of a field of fracking wells. Each individual has a fast rise (an acute phase) followed by a long tail (a convalescent phase). When summed together you get something like this ...

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2013/newrigorousa.jpg)

Vox_mundi,

Thank you. What an excellent graphic example. Thank you for sharing that. Each colored stripe is indeed quite like the cohorts of people infected by the virus at any given time. As these tails flow to the right they narrow as people either recover or die, in much the same way that the wells decline in volume. The curve shapes aren’t quite right, but the general idea is exactly right. To actually calculate the fatality rate, what is needed is the data for each stripe - a) the numbers infected -> b) the number that need critical care and go to hospital -> c) those then that are suspected of being infected -> d) those confirmed -> e) those who become severe -> f) those who die -> g) those who recover.

These don’t happen all at defined times. There are distributions for each phase which overlap down the stripe in time to the right. Once everyone in a stripe either recovers or dies, the calculation can be made. But since the deaths and recoveries occur so much later that when people are confirmed to be sick with the nCoV virus, and since the number of those infected is growing exponentially (adding new stripes), it is all too easy to grab incomplete data like the current totals of confirmed and dead and from those to wrongly calculate the fatality rates.

Once we have a bit better data, we can use the exponential equations to better estimate what the actual rates are.

However, all of that is subject to a whole lot of assumptions. Among those are assumptions that the data is sufficiently complete to make good estimates. There are both intentional and inadvertent factors that can make those assumptions very wrong.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 10:09:34 AM
United Arab Emirates confirms 2 new cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/08/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei-wuhan.html

The UAE Ministry of Health and Prevention confirmed two new cases of the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the country to seven. The ministry said the cases involve people of Chinese and Filipino nationalities.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mohapuae/status/1226038198255702016

-------------------------------

Thailand reports 7 new cases

Thailand’s health ministry confirmed seven additional cases of the new coronavirus, according to a Reuters report. The cases include three Thais and four Chinese, the report said.

Reuters reported that Suwannachai Wattanayingcharoenchai, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said one of the Thais was a person who had been evacuated from Wuhan, while the other two had been exposed to tourists.

------------------------------

Hong Kong government agencies temporarily pare back operations

On Saturday, many Hong Kong government agencies announced they would temporarily scale down office hours and services, citing efforts to limit spread of the new coronavirus. Most adjustments will take effect Monday as agencies try to continue basic, if limited, operations. The Inland Revenue Service and Labour Department are among the agencies that have announced special arrangements.

The Judiciary said all hearings that had been scheduled from Feb. 10 to Feb. 16 will be generally adjourned until a date that has not been set. It said, however, the courts will continue to handle “urgent and essential” matters.

------------------------------

Megacities Put Up Coronavirus Entry Barriers as China Goes Back To Work
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3049641/megacities-put-coronavirus-entry-barriers-china-goes-back

Two megacities in China’s southern manufacturing heartland have imposed partial lockdowns, with tight entry restrictions to control the spread of a coronavirus as the country goes back to work.

But unlike in Wuhan and other Hubei cities at the centre of the outbreak, authorities in Guangzhou (15 million) and Shenzhen (13 million) are allowing people to leave the jurisdictions.

... Under the new rules, people now need passes and to go through temperature checks to enter and leave residential compounds

A day earlier, Tianjin, which neighbours Beijing and has more than 9,000 people in quarantine, became the first municipality in the country to restrict entry. Partial lockdowns are also in effect in major cities including Nanjing in Jiangsu province, Zhengzhou in Henan province, and Hangzhou in Zhejiang province.

With 1,075 confirmed cases by the end of Friday, Guangdong has overtaken Zhejiang as the province with the highest number of coronavirus cases outside Hubei.

------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 08, 2020, 10:17:55 AM
Update:

截至 2020-02-07 17:33 全国数据统计
数据说明

34,598 确诊 + 3,401 较昨日
27,657 疑似 + 4,214 较昨日
  6,101 重症 + 1,280 较昨日
     723 死亡 +      86 较昨日
  2,052 治愈 +    510 较昨日

As of 2020-02-07 17:33 National Statistics
the data shows

34,598 Confirmed + 3,401 compared to yesterday
27,657 Suspected + 4,214 compared to yesterday
  6,101 Severe      + 1,280 compared to yesterday
     723 Deaths      +     86 compared to yesterday
  2,052 Recovered +   510 compared to yesterday


Johns Hopkins
34,831 Confirmed
    723 Dead
 2,063 Recovered

It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%).

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir
2) Remdesivir
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Sam
Mortality is again 2.1%

I wonder if we can trust the official figures at all?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 08, 2020, 11:26:32 AM
bluice: I don't trust the figures myself.

From the Generational Dynamics forum:
This is from a Chinese correspondent, so it is hearsay. Take it for what it is worth:
Quote
"Latest coronavirus tally:
> https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/

> My wife and I are under voluntary 14-day quarantine in
> California... so to say the least, I have been following the topic
> very closely.

> The South China Morning Post (SCMP.com) in Hong Kong has been the
> source of most of my information.
> (https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak-all-stories)

> You can usually get more up-to-date information about every 4-6
> hours there. Japanese newspapers also are interesting sources. An
> Israeli source mentioned that Wuhan is a center of China's
> biological warfare research.
> (https://www.ccn.com/israeli-analyst-one-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-less-crazy-than-you-think/)

> Pandemic vs. Contained Epidemic?
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/beast-moving-very-fast-will-new-coronavirus-be-contained-or-go-pandemic

> 1. It has *almost* confirmed that the virus is asymptomatically
> transmitted. Bad! Many articles allude to this, but the Tinajin
> and Singapore meeting cases seem to confirm it.
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048958/5-coronavirus-cases-traced-chinese-department-store-who-was

> 2. My brother-in-law is a public bus driver in Xi'an. He is
> supposed to go back to work on Monday. He, as well as all who
> provide transportation such as taxi drivers, has been instructed
> to see the national ID card of every boarding passenger. Anybody
> from Wuhan is not allowed on the bus.

> 3. China is providing all the medical care to patients "free of
> charge" according to my Chinese wife. If that happens in practice
> is yet to be seen.

> 4. In the housing communities throughout Xi'an, as well as in much
> of the more restricted areas of China, each house can send only
> one person to a market every other day. There are some that can go
> only once every three days. My wife's family is on an
> every-other-day basis.

> 5. The United States, through the Trump administration, first
> offered aid to China on January 6, while Beijing was still in full
> denial.
> https://www.eutimes.net/2020/01/china-refuses-us-aid-in-fight-against-coronavirus/

> 6. The way the CDC allowed a very sick person on my wife's plane
> to travel from Shanghai to SFO, totally on the basis of lies and
> deception, means there may already be thousands of cases here in
> the United States yet to appear.

> On that last point, one must remember that many of the Chinese
> that came over here initially came over illegally, then obtained a
> green card through deception. The last thing they will want to
> voluntarily admit is "I had been to Wuhan." Under the current set
> of fears the Trump administration has given the immigrant
> communities here in America, nobody knows what is coming down the
> pike that may cause deportation. Another thing is this: Even
> illegal aliens get better medical care in America than the Chinese
> may get back in China, especially if they got their green card a
> decade ago based on a persecution claim. Another common problem in
> America is that up until recently, many Chinese green card holders
> were doing illegal work, so everything was paid
> under-the-table. They could be filthy rich compared to most
> Americans, but because of using the underground economy, they
> qualified for food stamps, MediCal, housing subsidies, and all
> kinds of things. If they went to China, then came back sick, they
> would get medical treatment, but at the same time their income
> would be examined.

> Because of that, if that coughing woman that sat in the row behind
> my wife had the coronavirus, not only might both my wife and I
> might have been infected, but also every person that woman has
> been around during and after that flight. Multiply that by all the
> number of flights and potential people trying to flee China right
> now, and we may already have thousands of walking infected people
> at this point.

> The CDC is wrong to assume simple questionnaires of passengers
> that show no symptoms at the time of going past transit points
> will catch most cases. Furthermore, you and I know that it would
> be politically incorrect to call Chinese liars."
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 03:59:22 PM
China Threatens Harsh Punishments For People Who Disrupt Virus Control ... Including the Death Penalty
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html

The Chinese government has issued new regulations to severely punish people who disrupt the epidemic control work. Those who violate the rules will be subject to speedy arrests and sentences, and even the death penalty.

In a joint statement released Saturday, China’s National Health Commission, Supreme Court, Supreme Procuratorate and Ministry of Public Security listed seven types of medical-related crimes.

Approval for arrest, prosecutions and trials will be fast-tracked as the epidemic prevention and control is at a "critical stage."

The statement ends by saying the death penalty will not be ruled out in severe cases.
----------------------

One City’s Plan for Getting People to the Doctor: Ban Medicine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Hangzhou, a Chinese city with a population of 10 million, said it would temporarily ban the sale of flu and cough medicine at pharmacies, in an effort to compel people who might be sick to see a doctor.

In a statement, which was issued at midnight Friday and took effect immediately, the local government said the policy was created to “strengthen the supervision of those with fevers and coughs.”

Several cities in the eastern province of Zhejiang, including some sections of Hangzhou, have set limits on how often people can leave their houses, generally allowing one person to leave every few days to buy groceries. Paper passports have been printed to keep tabs on residents.

As such restrictions have increased, so have people’s fears about being suspected to have the virus. Some have complained that hotels set up for quarantines do little to separate people who are already sick from those who have no symptoms, but who are from an area that experienced an outbreak. In recent weeks, several articles in Chinese news media have told of people who used medicine to suppress coronavirus symptoms to pass through the country’s now ubiquitous fever-screening checkpoints.

... “Going to the hospital for a regular cold?” wrote one skeptical user. “What if you go to the hospital and get infected?”

In a recent Lancet study, 41% of the patients' illness were acquired in the hospital.

----------------------

‘It Does Not Look Good’: Wuhan Doctors Press On In Dire Conditions After Whistle-blower’s Death
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049669/it-does-not-look-good-wuhan-doctors-soldier-dire-conditions

Another doctor says he was questioned by police for alerting colleagues to outbreak late last year

Medical personnel struggle to treat flood of patients with dwindling supplies of protective equipment

... “I think being called to a police station did affect my work. I felt pressure at work,” he was quoted as saying, adding that he had no regrets.

“I only did what a doctor should do. No one thought the situation would escalate so fast.

“Even though I am not a specialist, the situation does not look good.

“The coronavirus looks to be very dangerous.”
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 04:05:06 PM
Five Britons Infected With Coronavirus in France
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3049653/five-britons-infected-coronavirus-france

Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet and coming into contact with a person who had been in Singapore, Health Minister Agnes Buzyn said on Saturday.

The new cases included a child, Buzyn added. She said they were not in a serious condition. The total number of people infected with the virus in France has now reached 11.

Buzyn said the group of newly-infected people with the virus formed “a cluster, a grouping around one original case.”

“That original case was brought to our attention last night, it is a British national who had returned from Singapore where he had stayed between January 20 and 23, and he arrived in France on January 24 for four days,” Buzyn said, adding that the latest outbreak had occurred in the mountainous region of Savoie in eastern France.

----------------------

Diamond Princess Cruise Ship a Floating "Contaminated Prison," Passenger Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/07/asia/us-coronavirus-victim-cruise-ship-intl-hnk/index.html

CNN's Will Ripley spoke to some American passengers aboard the ship, one of whom is calling on the US government to intervene and get them out of what she called a "contaminated prison."

... "This is not a safe environment and we don’t think anybody, let alone the Japanese government, wants to be responsible for making a bad decision of quarantining us in an unsafe place," said Florida resident Gay Courter.

"We want off this ship and we want to go in health and not in dire medical circumstances."

"(My husband Philip and I) are 75 and 77 years old, we have health risks and we are a bad category to get sick ... We are not safe in our rooms," she said

Quote
... "I (just) do not want to go home in a box"

... Rebecca Frasure, an Oregon resident whose throat swab tested positive for the coronavirus, said she had no symptoms and was scared of the unknown.

After Rebecca was diagnosed, her husband said no one came to disinfect the room the couple shared. He believes it is only a matter of time before he is diagnosed with the virus, too. "(But) you roll with the punches and try to make the best of things as you can," he said.

Information from the cruise staff has been scant and he only found out that a further 41 passengers had been diagnosed with the virus after talking to a reporter, he said.

"The only way anybody knows (what is happening) is when people that are infected tell other people they've been infected," he said.

------------------------------

Hong Kong Civil Servants ‘Assigned’ Quarantine Duty Despite Assurances Involvement Is Voluntary
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049665/coronavirus-hong-kong-civil-servants-assigned

Government staff say they are being drafted in for Hong Kong’s quarantine operation despite senior officials telling them involvement in the emergency response to the coronavirus outbreak is voluntary.

Hong Kong’s No 2 official earlier appealed to staff to help ‘if they are willing’

------------------------------

Singapore PM Says Coronavirus Spread Could Worsen But ‘There Is No Need To Panic’

Lee Hsien Loong sought to reassure Singaporeans who have gone on frenzied shopping sprees to stock up on essentials since the country raised its outbreak alert level

The government is well-prepared to tackle the crisis and will reconsider its strategy if the number of new cases keeps growing, he said

------------------------------

Plans?!; What Plans?!

As millions of Brazilians prepare to take to the streets for their country’s annual carnival, Brazil’s health minister has said his country currently has no specific plans for a coronavirus awareness campaign.

-------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Alexander555 on February 08, 2020, 04:24:47 PM
That's pretty worrisom. A british tourist in Singapore infected even before the first lockdown. And than he stayed 4 days in France, and that's 10 days ago. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3049653/five-britons-infected-coronavirus-france
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 05:10:00 PM
(https://www.mercurynews.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Pandemic-by-David-Fitzsimmons-The-Arizona-Star-Tucson-AZ-.jpg?w=620])

(https://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/8WgcxeQ6swJGymJT6BMGEL/abf58a3b-b6a8-4d2e-a528-3fda83f4b707.jpg/r0_0_2362_1533_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: be cause on February 08, 2020, 05:21:51 PM
  je ne re Greta rien .. or some such .. perhaps this is what the beginning of the New  Jerusalem looks like .. meanwhile Ciara's vanguard seems wont to tear my world apart already . I shall go sing ! :)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 05:47:26 PM
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3Kvu6Kgp88
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: pietkuip on February 08, 2020, 06:23:54 PM
On Cruise Ship Quarantined In Japan, Any New Cases Would Reset The Isolation Clock
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc

People who are quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan have been wondering how long their isolation would last. On Friday, a health official gave an answer they might not like: the quarantine will be extended every time a new case of the Wuhan coronavirus is confirmed on the ship.

Those cruise ships will provide excellent data. Perfect laboratories to study how this disease develops. The age distribution will be a bit skewed to pensioners, but they should be basically healthy. And there is a lot of younger staff, also in good health.

It is unfortunate for those on board, but in a month or so we will know what the death rate really is.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 08, 2020, 06:27:19 PM
From Singapore ministry of health. 
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/seven-more-confirmed-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore
Details on several clusters. Clusters also in France and Germany.

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 08, 2020, 06:38:10 PM
Coronavirus: China Mainly Interested in 'Safeguarding the Regime'
https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-mainly-interested-in-safeguarding-the-regime/a-52302326

Chinese historian Zhang Lifan told DW the epidemic exposes some critical flaws in China’s governance system, which he says "remains totalitarian and hierarchical," preventing the outbreak from being contained.

... In a way, this epidemic exposes another kind of virus in China, which is the "virus of bureaucracy." China's governance system remains totalitarian and hierarchical rather than modernized. That's why when Beijing has to deal with a large-scale epidemic, its governance style remains fragile.

The Chinese government's mishandling of the epidemic has a lot to do with its censorship. However, in order to maintain the stability of the regime, they have no bandwidth for actually containing the virus outbreak. The most important thing to the Chinese Communist Party is to safeguard its regime.

If we take a look at the people in charge of leading the efforts to contain the virus outbreak, it is obvious that none of them has any expertise in public health. This is an "amateur" team trying to give orders to a group of public health experts, and their real function is not to contain the virus, but to maintain social stability in China.

(... sounds a lot like the 'steaming pile' in the White House)

This is one of the most challenging moments in the Chinese Communist Party's 70-year history. The first major crisis it faced was the Great Chinese Famine during Mao Zedong's era, and the second major crisis was the Tiananmen Square Protest in 1989. Now we have this public health crisis.

Unlike the first two crises, the internet has allowed information about the epidemic to be shared very quickly and widely, which exacerbates the level of challenge that the Chinese government has to deal with. Even though Beijing tries to censor online discussion about the coronavirus epidemic, they still can't achieve a total blackout. Chinese people already know most of the facts about the epidemic. Even many Chinese officials probably know that they are lying about the epidemic.

However, this doesn't mean that a large-scale protest is in the making. From my observation, the Chinese government is monitoring society through tracking the development of the epidemic, and many methods of "maintaining stability" used in this epidemic could be applied to similar events in the future.

Additionally, most people in China are still afraid of dying from the coronavirus, so they would rather stay at home than taking it to the street at a time like this. The Chinese government is taking advantage of this and imposing strict control over road traffic and other aspects of people's everyday life. I think the Chinese government is using this epidemic to strengthen its control over society.

The Chinese government is used to sharing positive news and concealing negative news. When they can no longer hide the negative news, they try to find ways to turn negative news into positive news. This also happened during the early stages of the coronavirus epidemic.

They will likely try to contain the outbreak and at the same time, keep controlling society.

Once they can secure the regime, they will start framing the epidemic as a reflection of the superiority of socialism. I think this is the likely outcome.

-----------------------------

Xi Jinping Security Protégé to Bolster China’s Coronavirus Task Force
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3049671/xi-jinping-security-protege-bolster-chinas-coronavirus-task

Former Wuhan Communist Party chief Chen Yixin could play role in maintaining social stability, observer says

Tensions mount in aftermath of death of Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: etienne on February 08, 2020, 08:56:04 PM
Kids are going one week skiing end of March with the school. I met one of the teachers this morning and asked if the coronavirus would not be an issue. He told me that I shouldn't worry about that because the Europeans health systems are much better than what they have in China. 
https://youtu.be/4BVVm2IL1oE
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 08, 2020, 09:39:28 PM
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 08, 2020, 09:55:32 PM
Quote
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
I would be far more worried about the reliability of statistics from some very populous country's .
India and Indonesia both have strong trade and tourism links to China , neither is showing the number of infections we should expect.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: crandles on February 08, 2020, 10:23:15 PM
Quote
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
I would be far more worried about the reliability of statistics from some very populous country's .
India and Indonesia both have strong trade and tourism links to China , neither is showing the number of infections we should expect.

Reliability of statistics may not matter that much if the health care system is not able to cope with identifying/testing/containing/quarantining ...

Reliably reporting zero confirmed cases is not much use if there are lots of infections.

More useful to know if clusters of cases that are now seemingly inevitable can be contained by tracking contacts, monitoring and quarantining where necessary.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on February 08, 2020, 10:59:32 PM
Kids are going one week skiing end of March with the school. I met one of the teachers this morning and asked if the coronavirus would not be an issue. He told me that I shouldn't worry about that because the Europeans health systems are much better than what they have in China. 

This attitude could be called "whistling past the graveyard."  Today's news of a cluster of cases at an upscale ski chalet is illustrative.

A "better health system" mostly refers to how well people are cared for when they become sick.  That's nearly irrelevant for epidemic control.  The behavior of individuals *before* they become sick enough to need treatment is crucial.  China is able to enact almost draconian quarantine and travel controls at will, with excellent compliance.  That's disturbing from a human rights perspective, but constitutes strong public health from an infection control perspective.  I doubt any other nation on earth could be as effective and brutally efficient at this. 

I do think these strong measures have slowed the spread of the epidemic.  I think it can't possibly halt the spread.  Spread into nations with an abject inability to impose strong public health measures may fuel the next phase of acceleration.

The contagiousness and significant lethality of this virus are roughly comparable to the 1918 influenza pandemic.  Similarly to that episode, there is currently no available vaccine or antiviral treatment.  Unlike that episode, we have a good diagnostic test, though test availability is still terribly limited.

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.

1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary | Swine Flu Pandemic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UDY5COg2P2c)
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 08, 2020, 11:37:38 PM
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company that invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: SteveMDFP on February 08, 2020, 11:51:01 PM
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company the invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/

I'll shed no tears for Gilead's loss of profits.  The people of China desperately need effective treatments.  If China can do that without forking over unimaginable wealth to a corporation, I cheer them on.

But Gilead's claim will have enforceable power in the US and most of the rest of the world.  The implications for poor people and nations and the uninsured are disturbing.

I suspect a range of effective antivirals will be developed.  Quite possibly, ones already marketed now.  A few, perhaps, with patents already expired.  We can only hope.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 09, 2020, 12:07:08 AM
More data available in about an hour or so.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-08 07:15 全国数据统计
数据说明

较昨日变化数据:待国家卫健委数据公布中,预计 08:00 左右更新。

34,673 确诊
27,657 疑似
  6,101 重症
    724 死亡
 2,375 治愈

As of 2020-02-08 07:15 National Statistics
Data description

More than yesterday's change data: to be released by the National Health and Reform Commission data, is expected to update around 08:00.

34,673 Confirmed
27,657 Suspected
  6,101 Critical
    724 Deaths
 2,375 Recovered

Johns Hopkins
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

34,963 Confirmed
    725 Dead
 2,394 Recovered

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: bluice on February 09, 2020, 12:16:54 AM
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 09, 2020, 12:21:10 AM
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company the invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/

I'll shed no tears for Gilead's loss of profits.  The people of China desperately need effective treatments.  If China can do that without forking over unimaginable wealth to a corporation, I cheer them on.

But Gilead's claim will have enforceable power in the US and most of the rest of the world.  The implications for poor people and nations and the uninsured are disturbing.

I suspect a range of effective antivirals will be developed.  Quite possibly, ones already marketed now.  A few, perhaps, with patents already expired.  We can only hope.

As I noted yesterday, there are several treatments that have been reported to be successful.

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir ((Singapore report))
2) Remdesivir ((Chinese report))
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera ((Chinese report))
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Also in addition to yesterday, we are now hearing a lot of other thoughts and inputs about the virus and its impacts. The business community and politicians, economists and the like have awoken to the immense disruption to supply and economies. Some of these clearly have their priorities entirely wrong. They focus not on the impact on human health and the welfare of those impacted, but on the financial and business implications. For people who think in this way, human impacts are important in the abstract - only in so far as those impact business, commerce and money - which is their central organizing principle. They see business and commerce as allowing human health, and threats to that then impact health. While that is true, it winds the problem backward.

And when it comes then to solutions, people thinking in this way will inexorably argue first for minimizing impacts on business, commerce and wealth, and deprecate impacts to individuals health. To my mind that is purely evil. It is also destined to fail and fail miserably in protecting both individuals, the large body of society, and business, commerce and wealth. By winding the problem the wrong way, the solutions proposed will exacerbate the spread of disease magnifying the catastrophe, rather than working to solve it.

The problem with pharmaceuticals is similar. In a catastrophe, broad access to the tools required to solve it must not be impeded by greed. The regular rules must be supplanted. National declarations of emergency and sovereignty as well as protection of individuals lives call for the nationalization of the rights to the properties in question, and the companies too if necessary. Seeing this, the companies should act accordingly and chose to wave all but minimal cash returns on the production of these critically important substances. Should they fail to do so, I am of the belief that nations should act swiftly to nationalize them.

Likewise, nation to nation, there should be minimal barriers in the transfer of the materials and rights to produce them. In a pandemic we are all at risk. We must act together for all our sakes.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on February 09, 2020, 12:34:55 AM
Russian TV is spreading conspiracy theories about the corona virus on prime time news programmes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51413870 (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51413870)

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Grubbegrabben on February 09, 2020, 12:48:56 AM
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

I think it's quite obvious that basic hospital care (for example treatment with added oxygen) means life instead of death for many severely/critically ill patients. The Hubei province, especially Wuhan City, didn't have hospital capacity to meet demands as the outbreak gained momentum. With the recently added hospital capacity, as well as increased understanding how to treat patients, I expect the death rate to drop quickly. There are 10 000 cases outside of Hubei but only 26 deaths (0,2%).

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: edmountain on February 09, 2020, 01:09:08 AM
The contagiousness and significant lethality of this virus are roughly comparable to the 1918 influenza pandemic.  Similarly to that episode, there is currently no available vaccine or antiviral treatment.  Unlike that episode, we have a good diagnostic test, though test availability is still terribly limited.

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.
One interesting thing about the 1918 influenza epidemic was a disproportionate number of deaths among seemingly-healthy 20-40 year-old individuals; the mortality curve was W-shaped rather than U-shaped. These deaths accounted for the majority of "excess" influenza deaths over the course the pandemic (source (https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/10.2105/AJPH.2018.304631)).

Thus far it seems as if the Wuhan coronavirus is not following this 1918 influenza pattern: the most severely ill and the most fatalities seem to be older or comorbid individuals. See, for example, this case series of 138 hospitalized patients recently published in JAMA (https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044).

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.
Another interesting thing about the 1918 influenza pandemic was that a large part of excess influenza deaths were caused secondary bacterial pneumonias (source (https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/195/7/1018/800918), and references therein) for which no effective treatment, i.e. antibacterials, existed in 1918. If secondary bacterial pneumonias comprise an important complication of the current infection then antibacterials may be of benefit. This is of course a big if but it's notable that most of the patients in the JAMA case series above received antibacterials. Obviously antibacterials have no role in treating the primary infection

What this means exactly for the future transmission of the Wuhan virus remains to be seen. As you suggest, there are many reasons to believe that the current outbreak will not automatically be a repeat of 1918.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 09, 2020, 01:17:30 AM
So far, India is saying that all these cases are negative (except for 3 positives). I don't know ...

Suspected Cases Crop up Across India with Flu-like Symptoms
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2020-02-06-hundreds-of-coronavirus-suspected-cases-crop-up-across-india

... Amidst the situation in China, several Indian states have admitted people in hospitals and are keeping many under observation for suspected symptoms of coronavirus. Till now, India has reported three confirmed cases of coronavirus from Kerala. According to the Ministry of Health, a total of 5,123 are monitored under home surveillance.

In Karnataka, about 83 people with the symptoms of coronavirus are kept under home isolation observation. The Karnataka Health and Family Welfare Services department is observing patients in Bengaluru, Tumkur and Mysuru. The officials claim that, as of now, no positive cases of coronavirus are reported from the state.

As a precautionary measure, the government has imposed surveillance in Karnataka districts bordering Kerala including Kodagu, Mangaluru, Chamarajanagar, and Mysuru. Moreover, Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) has conducted thermal screening for coronavirus on 10,184 passengers from January 20 till Wednesday.

About 22 suspects of coronavirus symptoms have been reported from Punjab. Other places where people are being examined for the symptoms of coronavirus are Hyderabad, Odisha, Delhi, and Manesar.

... So, how prepared is India to handle the coronavirus in case the numbers spike?

Considering there is no vaccine or trial-proven drug therapy yet, aff­ected patients are being treated symptomatically based on clinical severity. "Serious cases who have viral pneumonia will need supportive intensive care, including mechanical ventilation when required. Hospitals in large cities can provide this, if the numbers are not overwhelming. Small towns and rural areas in most states will be ill-equipped if the virus spreads further," says Dr K. Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI).

... A comprehensive nationwide surveillance system is still a work in progress.

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/magazine/the-big-story/story/20200217-the-dark-corona-1643707-2020-02-07

--------------------------------

'We're Definitely Not Prepared': Africa Braces for New Virus
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/08/world/africa/ap-af-africa-virus-fears.html

LUSAKA, Zambia — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

... “The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

"We're definitely not prepared. If we had a couple of cases, it would spread very quickly,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said. “We're doing the best we can with what resources we have.”


The Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital, or Sinozam, a low-slung facility near the city's train station, has taken some precautions, including checking patient temperatures with infrared thermometers and establishing isolation areas. Employees wear masks. Gloves, disinfectant and oxygen inhalers have been stockpiled. Sinozam treats many Chinese in Kitwe and its precautions go further than other hospitals in the area.

But the employees and others familiar with the matter, some of whom spoke anonymously under the new rules, say some Chinese patients checked in with coughs and fevers but did not get placed in isolation.

Visiting Zambian health officials concluded the patients did not merit special treatment and did not take samples to test for the virus. After the people recovered, they were sent home with antibiotics, employees said.


On Wednesday, the hospital set up a new fever clinic, to which here people arriving with a high temperature are now ushered to right away. It's “unfortunate” the ward wasn't set up earlier, Sinkala said.

Two people familiar with the matter say a doctor tending to the sick has fallen ill. Dr. Yu Jianlan has not come to work in the past week and hospital administrators have not explained her absence, Sinkala said. The other person spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

Hospital administrator Li Zhibing said there were no patients with a fever and said Yu had a urinary tract infection, not a fever. But a notice posted by the Zambia-China Cooperation Zone, which manages the hospital, quoted an employee as saying on Jan. 27 that the facility “probably sees 120 fever patients a day, and at least 70 of them are carrying germs” of various diseases.

Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.

... Crucially, no one in Zambia has been able to test for the virus so far. Like most African countries, it has been waiting for a substance known as a reagent, which labs require to confirm whether a patient is infected. Labs in just six of Africa’s 54 countries were equipped as of mid-week. That means a wait of two or more days to know whether a sample shipped to South Africa or even outside the continent tests positive.

Without testing, officials are “just relying on the symptoms" and whether they persist. “But from what we are learning right now, some people show hardly any symptoms at all,” Sinkala said, calling that the hospital's biggest worry.

Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.

... Concerns are high among some in Kitwe. A local pharmacy manager, Edward Goma, estimated that his business had sold more than 800 face masks in the past few days.

“So far everyone is scared,” he said. And yet he has not noticed the stricter surveillance measures seen in other countries, beyond temperature checks at the international airport an hour’s drive away.

... The 15th Metallurgical Construction Group, based in Wuhan, said on its website that its overseas operations in Zambia and Congo must purchase masks, disinfect living quarters and workspaces daily and check workers' temperatures three times a day.

--------------------------------

China's Coronavirus-hit Hubei Says Medical Supply Tightness Easing, Shortages Persist
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hubei-idUSKBN2020MF

BEIJING (Reuters) - The vice governor of China’s Hubei province, Cao Guangjing, speaking at an evening news conference in provincial capital Wuhan, where the outbreak originated, said Hubei’s major producers of protective gear - such as masks and protective suits – had all returned to work as of Feb. 7 but some smaller plants had still not fully resumed production.

“The shortage still exists,” but may end if there is a turning point in the crisis, Cao said. “If the numbers keep rising, the tightness will continue and may increase.”

Earlier on Friday, Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, the country’s most senior official on the ground in Hubei, visited the newly opened Leishenshan hospital in Wuhan, one of several makeshift facilities set up for people infected with the coronavirus.

“Time is life,” state broadcaster CCTV cited Sun as saying, adding that she had called for the bed turnover rate to be speeded up. (... triage?)

----------------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 09, 2020, 01:25:52 AM
Hunt for Coronavirus Victims As Trail Leads From Singapore To UK and France
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/hunt-for-coronavirus-victims-as-trail-leads-from-singapore-to-uk-and-france

An international manhunt is under way to trace more than 100 people who were at a business conference in Singapore where the British national who infected five others at a French ski resort is believed to have contracted the coronavirus.

The conference at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Singapore, held earlier in January, is believed to have been attended by 15 people from Singapore and 94 foreigners, and hosted by a multinational company. The Singaporean evening daily paper Lianhe Wanbao named the company as UK firm Servomex, a global gas analysis company with offices in Europe and Asia.

Malaysian health authorities first revealed the virus’s link to the conference when they confirmed the case of a 41-year-old Malaysian who had attended it alongside colleagues from China, according to the New Straits Times.

South Korea has confirmed that two of its nationals who attended the conference also have the virus. The Koreans and the Malaysian shared a buffet meal during the conference, South Korean media reported. Of the 15 Singaporean attendees, four have been referred to its National Centre for Infectious Diseases, the country’s health ministry confirmed.

... The Brighton man told UK authorities he had visited a chalet in Contamines-Montjoie, prompting French officials to take the 11 Britons who had been staying there to hospitals in Lyon, Saint-Étienne and Grenoble on Friday night.

French authorities said the chalet had two apartments where two families had been staying. A British couple and their three children, who have reportedly lived in Contamines-Montjoie for three years and are now resident in France, live in one. The mother is in the UK, studying for exams, and has been contacted.

The three British children under examination in hospital in France – including a nine-year-old who has tested positive for the virus along with his father – attended a school in the resort, its mayor, Etienne Jacquet, told BFM TV.

He said the two schools would be shut this week as the authorities investigated who they had been in contact with.


Quote
... The mayor of nearby resort Saint-Gervais, Jean-Marc Peillex, played down the risk to children at the local school, which has 200 pupils. He said the nine-year old boy had spent “half a day there with five pupils”.

Seven tourists were staying in the other apartment. All the Britons staying in the apartments were taken to hospital. Agnes Buzyn, France’s health minister, said none was in a serious condition.

-------------------------

Singapore Cases Jump (10:20 a.m. NY)

Singapore reported seven additional confirmed cases, bringing its total to 40. Four victims are in critical condition, and one is on oxygen support, the government said late Saturday. All the new cases are Singapore citizens or permanent residents, and none had traveled to China recently

----------------------------

Grab Suspends Singapore Carpooling (10:50 a.m. NY)

Grab Holdings Inc., which runs Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing app, said it will temporarily suspend its GrabShare carpooling services starting Sunday as the number of coronavirus cases in the city reached 40.

Singapore raised its national disease response level to Orange, its second-highest level and the same one used during the SARS epidemic almost two decades ago.

---------------------------
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 09, 2020, 01:34:51 AM
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

bluice,

I cannot say anything one way or the other about the validity or invalidity of the Chinese data. I simply have no basis to do so.

The ratios day to day aren't precisely 2.1%. They are close. However, with exponential growth curves this is not at all surprising.

There is some mean/average time from infection to presentation of symptoms, and from symptoms to hospitalization, from hospitalization to confirmation of infection, and for those who succumb, from confirmation to death. 

The best estimates so far are that the time from infection to confirmed status is about 7 days. The replication or generation time seems to be about 5.9 days. The time from confirmed status to death averages about 6 days.

The growth rate from various estimates has ranged from 1.62 fold increase per day down to 1.20 fold increase. Commonly encountered values are 1.32 fold and 1.42 fold. From these, you can easily calculate the "gamma" value used in the models by taking the natural logarithm (log base e) of these numbers. Conversely, you can convert reported gamma values to daily growth factors by taking the exponent of the values - also base e.

If for example we take the current daily growth factor as being 1.32 and the mean time from confirmed status to death, we would expect the value of the ratio of the number dying each day to the number confirmed each day to be about equal to the inverse of 1.32^6 times the case fatality rate. 1/(1.32^6) equals 0.189.  If as we seem to be seeing, the mean death rate is 10-12% of those infected and reporting to hospital, then we would expect the ratio of daily deaths to daily confirmations to be about 0.019 to 0.023 (1.9%-2.3%). If the CFR is 11%, the ratio would be ~2.1%

This does not then mean that the CFR is 11%. It is likely somewhere between 9-16% for those who report to the hospital. And again, that is predominantly older males (age 55+). That unfortunately tells us nothing about the CFR for people who do not report to the hospital, or about what portion of the population does go to hospital or not.

There is broad uncertainty in all of these parameters.

If as we have so far seen, the disease predominantly strikes those over 55, and we assume that only those over 55 go to hospital, then using the age distribution of the population we could work backward to estimate the case fatality rate based on the whole population. However, that is misleading, as the case fatality rate doesn't apply to the whole population, except for planning purposes for cremation .... It applies instead to older males. The CFR for those under 55 is much lower, and for infants and young adults it seems to be near zero.

If the CFR (for those hospitalized) is actually 10%, then we can reverse the estimates (based on slope data) of the daily growth rates (or their natural logs - the gammas) to estimate the mean time from confirmed status to death. Other combinations of gamma (or daily factor), mean time from confirmed status to death and case fatality rate can result in the same ratio. However - we do expect their to be a ratio. And that ratio should change based on changes in the growth rate caused by things like the quarantine.

The quarantine should also then change the R0 and R values too corresponding to the changes in the daily rate, as the mean time from confirmed status to death should not change, other than through random variation.

In general, we have seen from the beginning a near constant ratio of 43-47 between the number of people confirmed to have the virus each day to those dying each day. And this is expected from an exponential growth pattern.

The inverse of 43-47 is expressed as percent - 2.1% to 2.3%.

If as some other estimates suggest, the daily growth rate is ~1.60, AND the case fatality rate is ~10%, then we can estimate the mean time from conversion to confirmed status to death as being about 4.5 days. The data from hospitals suggests that it is closer to 5.9-6.0 days.

So if instead we use the 1.60 slope and the 5.9 day period, it suggests a CFR of about 13%.

None of this indicates that anyone is hiding anything, or that they are making up data. Instead, it tells us some things about the dynamics of the growth curve for the virus in the population. Within reasonable bounds, the growth rate is 1.20 - 1.62 per day. The duration from confirmed status to death is 4.5-7 days. The fatality rate for those hospitalized is likely somewhere between 9%-16%. The combination of these factors results in a ratio of daily confirmed positive to daily deceased of about 42-47. The precise or accurate values for each of the parameters is the combination that results in that range.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 09, 2020, 01:43:36 AM
Please note too...

If the data is as it appears to be ... and it might well not be ...

Then ... One strategy for this disease might center around protecting those over age 50 from any exposure at all, while letting the virus run its course through the younger population.

One of the problems with such a strategy is how to ensure that the virus does run its course and then dies out completely, rather than becoming endemic.

Another problem is that the virus is not going to behave. It will mutate. And that may well set in place an ongoing recurrent infection that cycles through the population.

The net result of either or both of those is that the strategy fails. The older population then is heavily impacted and ~10% of them die.

This type of thinking is all too easy to fall in to, and then to not be fully thought out. And that is why I mention it.

For whatever strategies are actually employed, it is essential to think them through from beginning to end, and to recognize reality in the process.

In Africa for example (this applies as well to any poor community anywhere - it isn't about race), lacking access to testing and treatment, the disease is likely to run rampant and unchecked through the population if it ever arrives there.

That being the case, it is particularly important to assure that the disease never makes it to areas with large poor populations. If it does, these will act as reservoirs that will infect every other population.

By this I absolutely do not mean that we should view the poor populations as lesser or expandable, or of less value. They absolutely aren't. What I do mean to show is that people who are from wealthier populations should recognize that it is absolutely in their own self interest to care for the welfare of everyone, and that using economics as a basis for decision making in this regard is doomed to utter failure. We are all of us in this together.

Sam

Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Sam on February 09, 2020, 01:50:27 AM
As promised:

截至 2020-02-08 16:39 全国数据统计
数据说明

37,251 确诊 +2,657 较昨日
28,942 疑似 +3,916 较昨日
  6,188 重症 +     87 较昨日
     812 死亡 +     89 较昨日
  2,651 治愈 +   600 较昨日

As of 2020-02-08 16:39 National Statistics
the data shows

37,251 Confirmed +2,657 compared to yesterday
28,942 Suspected +3,916 compared to yesterday
  6,188 Severe      +    87 compared to yesterday
     812 Deaths      +    89 compared to yesterday
  2,651 Recovered +   600 compared to yesterday

Johns Hopkins
37,153 Confirmed
     807 Deaths
  2,617 Recovered

Also - from the previous discussion:
If we use this data. The Confirmed ratio to the Confirmed ratio less the reported growth suggest a daily growth factor of about 1.16. The daily Death to daily Confirmed ratio is 3.3%. If the time from confirmed status to death remains about 5.9 days, this suggests a case fatality rate of 12.4%.

That seems reasonable. Natural randomness and variation are likely at play. Accordingly, the data should be taken tentatively. Estimates for short periods of data need to be used with great caution.

If however, the 1.16 ratio is correct, that is down considerably from the early estimates of 1.42 - 1.62. And that also means a rather tremendous slowing in the rate of spread of the disease. Because the ratio is over unity, the disease is still spreading and the spread is not yet controlled, despite the herculean (and perhaps draconian) efforts that China has made so far. More is required if the disease is to be stopped.

This is also a cautionary tale for every other country. Do NOT allow this disease to enter your country. It is likely that no other country could take the control efforts that China has. And what that means is rapid spread globally if every other country is not successful at stopping the relative handful of cases that have made it to their shores.

Addenda... see Edmountain's comment and my reply later in this chain. This calculation is overly simplistic (as I cautioned at the start). I noted the other day that it appeared that perhaps the effects of the quarantine were beginning to show. In the above I neglected that. And that is crucial. During the exponential growth phase some fairly crude assumptions apply about the relative importance of older data. Once the growth phase is ended, this assumptions are invalid. I appear to have missed that conversion out of the growth phase. Always use caution in evaluating calculations like these.

The central question I was attempting to address remains valid - that it is not surprising that we see a nearly constant ratio (at least for the moment) between the confirmed count and the death count. When we shift to looking at the daily change in those numbers and their ratio, we should and do begin to see a shift. Thank you Edmountain for your comment. Question everything - always. It is only then we might hope to get closer to truth.

Sam
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 09, 2020, 01:54:52 AM
Came across a rumor that China will execute 20,000 people to stop this epidemic.
I am surprised Fake News has gotten so extreme so fast.
Also, how good are those instant hospitals? Pictures I saw are just huge arrays of cots.
Title: Re: Chinese coronavirus
Post by: vox_mundi on February 09, 2020, 02:05:21 AM
(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BBZNxkR.img?h=0&a