Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Tom_Mazanec on February 28, 2020, 01:03:41 AM

Title: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 28, 2020, 01:03:41 AM
be cause:
Here is the thread you requested on the Covid-19 thread.

*

Edited the thread title a bit.

This can be used for all Covid-19 economic consequences.

Kassy
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on February 28, 2020, 03:46:08 AM
Cheers Tom .

 context .. Tom asked ' will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy ? ' reply 7 COVID-19 back on 25.01.2020 .

. it already seems clear that COVID-19 is even more successful as an economic virus and is exposing every weakness however carefully hidden . That , and it's menace to humanity directly , make a global recession or depression increasingly certain .

just to cheer everyone up I'd probably have called this thread ' The Really Great Depression '  b.c.


Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: etienne on February 28, 2020, 09:09:27 PM
In Luxembourg, we have a government that really tries not to find any case of Coronavirus. To be tested, you need to be sick and to have been in an infected area (Italy, Korea, China...). Just that nowadays infected area are almost everywhere, Belgium is the only border country that doesn't have detected cases, but Germany and France are not considered as "dangerous" right now.

I wonder if this doesn't scare people even more. I had to go shopping and there was almost nobody in the shops. The electronic shop was the only one where I had to wait a minute because somebody else was paying.

We are waiting, doing business ass usual, but wondering where it will come from.

Luxembourg has few cultural events this week-end, I wonder how many people will be there.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 28, 2020, 09:14:36 PM
Dow Jones Industrial Average has plunged another 800 points today, putting the Dow into "correction" territory.  The six-month graph makes me glad I sold some 'fund' stock last week!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 28, 2020, 11:27:42 PM
TB:
Ended down 357 points.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 29, 2020, 07:23:54 PM
Why a bear market will lead to a dollar collapse
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/why-a-bear-market-will-lead-to-a-dollar-collapse
Quote
The abolition of meaningful yields has been achieved through a combination of statistical suppression of price inflation and monetary expansion. But this is just the start of it. Imagine for a moment a collapse today akin to the 1929-32 Wall Street crash, followed by an economic slump on a 1930s scale. Freed from apparent restrictions on the expansion of money and having a mandate to do whatever it takes, combined with demands for the financing of soaring government budget deficits the expansion of money will go into hyperdrive – everywhere at the same time.

Not only do we have that problem, but we now have a viral pandemic that has all but shut down the largest manufacturing economy in the world, disrupting the overwhelming majority of supply chains elsewhere. And that assumes the coronavirus is contained to China and that early signs of it turning into a global pandemic turn out to be false. But the signs are that it is becoming a pandemic on the eve of Wall Street crash Mark II, bringing forward and amplifying the economic destruction that always follows a period of credit expansion. The effect of the virus threatens to turn an economic slump, perhaps a once in a century event, into an outright production and consumption collapse.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on February 29, 2020, 07:29:19 PM
Tom, you might want to listen to this podcast: Bitcoin & Markets

https://overcast.fm/+Rt1ptD5TY
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on February 29, 2020, 08:42:49 PM
The USA has no room to move.
low interest rates, large budget deficit and a maxed out share market.
Many have been saying for a while a small issue could  cause a recession
Wuflu ain't a small issue it is going to have a major global impact .
I can see the dow hitting a five year low in the next two months .
How is the great orange retard #leader of the free world going to cope with that?

bc You frequently make me laugh .
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 29, 2020, 08:50:24 PM
KiwiGriff:
John Xenakis of Generational Dynamics expects the Dow to go to 2000-3000.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on February 29, 2020, 09:31:08 PM
In Luxembourg, we have a government that really tries not to find any case of Coronavirus. To be tested, you need to be sick and to have been in an infected area (Italy, Korea, China...). Just that nowadays infected area are almost everywhere, Belgium is the only border country that doesn't have detected cases, but Germany and France are not considered as "dangerous" right now.

I wonder if this doesn't scare people even more. I had to go shopping and there was almost nobody in the shops. The electronic shop was the only one where I had to wait a minute because somebody else was paying.

We are waiting, doing business ass usual, but wondering where it will come from.

Luxembourg has few cultural events this week-end, I wonder how many people will be there.

When it started in China, in the beginning nobody knew about it, so it could spread. The countries that don't test, they don't know it's there. So it can spread in a way to become the next Wuhan. In Luxemburg they know it's not far off, so they probably become a little more carefull. But there are a few countries for who i fear what's coming.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on February 29, 2020, 10:01:50 PM
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on February 29, 2020, 10:15:53 PM
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)
I’m an American but I was replying to kiwigriff, who I assume lives in NZ?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 01, 2020, 12:21:12 AM
It is easy to tell on this site who the Americans are: the ones who write about the stockmarket :) Noone else cares about where the stockmarket is. Anglo-saxon countries have a deep equity-culture, other countries usually do not. 

(notice how it is always the Dow and the S&P never the DAX, the Nikkei, the Moscow index?)
Because of my day job I happen to care a lot about stock market movements, especially the Nikkei...
I am not American, nor Japanese for that matter. I just don't bother to write about it.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 01, 2020, 12:32:17 AM
Yeah the Kiwi gives it away.
I was getting confused with the Griff who sometimes comments on WUWT , the Great White Con and added the Kiwi when someone on Robert Scribbler suggested we should use a name that says were we are from.
The Dow is just one of many indexes they are all showing similar falls.
The market indexes  react a lot quicker than say GDP figures as a metric of economic  performance. The share markets are also driven by emotion so indicate peoples underlying feelings.
We have a long way to go down yet .......
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Rodius on March 01, 2020, 03:13:01 AM
Just an update of anecdotal evidence from my wife who admins a warehouse for a large retail company in Australia.
They have had no incoming containers from China for ten days.
The supplies in the large warehouse have basically come to a standstill which means the stores will be running out of stock in the coming few weeks..... there is no sign of containers coming into the warehouse in the coming week.
I got bored so I went shopping in the retail store and they look light on stock (I use to manage large format retail stores so I see these things easier than most).
I then walked the competitors and saw similar results.
Australia clearly relies on China a lot for retail stock.
I went to the supermarket and see slight signs of stocks getting low, but nothing drastic there.

Anyway, since my old computer decided to die today, I had to buy a new one (this is coming from my brand spanking new comp). The first one I wanted had no stock, same with the second one and I finally got a stocked item on the fourth attempt.
I felt for the sales person as he was dancing around the supply situation..... just for fun I asked for other computers just to get a gauge on supplies in general and found that over half the computers they sell are out of stock company wide.

While this is anecdotal, I am not surprised.
It also means that there are several companies in the coming months that are going to become bankrupt because of no stock unless something fast happens concerning supply chains.

I am not personally over-stressed about the virus (barring my wife who is extremely susceptible to lung infections) but this supply chain breakdown is a concern and rates as my thing to worry about the most this year.

This year is going to become historically significant.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: nanning on March 01, 2020, 07:07:26 AM
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Rodius on March 01, 2020, 07:17:43 AM
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?

I think you are correct.
In Australia, we will trailblaze those measures and then some as that is what is happening already.

I am almost begging my wife to move to New Zealand asap, but she is a hard cookie to crack. Maybe, if this thing hits hard, she will agree to the move.

I often wonder why people ignore the obvious and hope the obvious wont happen.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 01, 2020, 07:48:40 AM
I think western governments' reaction to a recession will be even more austerity with deeper cuts. The poor people will get hit hardest whilst being the most vulnerable.
Am I correct in my thinking?

Perhaps the age of reason will get a reboot?
Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?

I think you are totally wrong. MMT (Moder Monetary Theory) is coming - this is the Zeitgeist. It means Central Bank financed money distributed directly to the people to keep the economy going. Hong Kong is already doing it:
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/02/26/1582705518000/Helicopter-money-is-here/

" Hong Kong permanent residents aged 18 and above will each receive a cash handout of HK$10,000 (US$1,200) in a HK$120 billion (US$15 billion) relief deal rolled out by the government to ease the burden on individuals and companies, while saving jobs.

    Financial Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po confirmed an earlier Post report when he unveiled the payment during his budget speech on Wednesday morning, along with a full guarantee on loans taken out by companies to pay wages and taxes."


 
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: sidd on March 01, 2020, 08:01:10 AM
Re: "Recouple money to gold standard price so money becomes 'real' again?"

You will find a great deal of support for that theory among the goldbug literati. (I do not bother to read them.)

That said, i think commodity based money only makes sense for economies tied to that commodity. House of Saud might do well with currency valued to oil price ... but bonesaw guy is far too uneducated to even think about that.

sidd


Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: interstitial on March 01, 2020, 08:17:35 AM
In the US it is an election year and a slow economy is hard for an incumbant to overcome. I bet we see some stimulas soon because of it.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: etienne on March 01, 2020, 08:23:09 AM
We do not have enough gold to recouple gold and money. This is the best way to reach the final crash. The problem we might have is that production and growth is wat gives value to our coins, and the coronavirus just stops both. Should we be happy that stock markets reduce available money now that production is slowed? I guess not, but I'm not sure that it makes everything worse. I think it is just a sign of the size of our problems.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 08:38:50 AM
People sell their stocks for fiat money in order to ditch volatility.

When fiat becomes volatile is the moment to panic.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 01, 2020, 09:15:28 AM
People sell their stocks for fiat money in order to ditch volatility.

When fiat becomes volatile is the moment to panic.

Probably right on both accounts. However, fiat money becoming volatile is a hard concept. Volatile vs what? I guess you mean that MMT/helicopter money will cause inflation ("volatile fiat money"). I think yes, but only on the longer run (3+ years). Inflation has huge inertia. it is hard to stop and it is hard to start...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 01, 2020, 09:31:29 AM
Quote
Volatile vs what?

Purchasing power of course.

Yes, MMT would cause inflation, but here lies not the looming danger since people would earn more money, equalizing the inflation.

MMT is a tool that would allow us to do the things we have to do (i.e. transition of the energy sector). But it's not a tool to stabilize volatility.

A world currency would be a tool for the later.

Good thing we have that now.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Ktb on March 01, 2020, 11:43:28 AM
Watched The Big Short again today.

Good lord we are not ready for the next financial crisis or recession.

Quote
Some 40% of Americans would struggle to come up with $400 for an unexpected expense.

Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/20/heres-why-so-many-americans-cant-handle-a-400-unexpected-expense.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 01, 2020, 12:53:16 PM
Personally I thought we were in a hyper bubble and if Covid-19 had not popped it in 2020 something else would have in 2021.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on March 01, 2020, 01:22:17 PM
I find it somewhat fitting that we're discussing the very same reckless short-termism that's caused the Climate Crisis (Climate won't bother us until 2050 = someone else's problem!) in an entirely different context (Loans won't come due until I'm out of office and/or we've stolen enough money to pay them back = someone else's problem!), and seeing how very similar consequences (the problems are now manifesting, and it's pretty much too late to do something about it) have come about.

Might we be able to see the Climate Crisis as a very big bust in out boom/bust economic cycles?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: etienne on March 01, 2020, 04:47:26 PM
I just read that El Al, the Israelian  air company, would reduce the number of employees because of the virus.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 01, 2020, 05:11:38 PM
Note that as Israel goes to the polls tomorrow, El Al's move is designed to pressure the government for a handout of big money.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 01, 2020, 05:27:35 PM
Frankfurt airport, a hub for international travel, deals with the huge drop in business as airlines cancel flights.  Suppliers as well as airport workers will feel the effects.

Frankfurt airport operator announces cost cuts over coronavirus
Quote
BERLIN, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Germany’s airport operator Fraport is planning cost cuts, including a hiring freeze, as the coronavirus outbreak is taking a heavy toll on aviation worldwide, it said on Thursday.

“Currently, all major costs are being reviewed closely,” Fraport said in a statement, adding that it was still too early to predict the duration and extent of flight cancellations and the decline in traffic volumes.

Fraport is the operator of Frankfurt airport, Germany’s largest hub.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-health-fraport/frankfurt-airport-operator-announces-cost-cuts-over-coronavirus-idUKFWN2AR0CO
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on March 01, 2020, 10:01:06 PM
Might we be able to see the Climate Crisis as a very big bust in out boom/bust economic cycles?

Sort of but it is a very unfair one. Usually it is ´just money´ although that can be grossly unfair too.

If we look 50 years ahead there is climate change wrecking havoc while many places suffer soil and/or aquifer depletion.

Even rather modest outlooks paint a picture of a world you would not want to live in but no one wants to do anything about it because it costs voters and donations or someone will fix it in 10 years or so.

And then times up.

Then ofc this thing is bigger. So many creatures dying. Whole landscapes and habitats destroyed.

At least we have the pictures of some of them...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 02, 2020, 01:28:45 AM
All these companies that pledged net zero emissions over the last few months just got a 10-20% haircut and are still bleeding.  So yes the stock market does matter.  Boards report to their investors which also expect dividends.  Investing in carbon capture and storage is going to be unimaginable now for some.

Baby boomers are past the age of adding to their retirement accounts.  Withdrawing money to meet bills at that same time it’s tanking just adds to the pain.  At best you can hope for a V shape recovery.

How many companies are over leveraged with corporate debt?  In the U.S. we just wasted billions on deficit spending so corporations could do stock buybacks with 2017’s corporate tax cut. Gone just like that. 

The everything bubble just popped and the little priority global warming acquired the last few years is going to take a back seat.  We’re just getting started with this mess.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 02, 2020, 03:33:09 AM
The impact on AGW is dependent on the extent and time frame .
Expect a spike in global temperatures as aerosols fall due to less air travel, sea freight and energy use. This  is due the removal of  aerosol's masking our real effect on global temperatures.
An economic down turn will result in less emissions.  Even if they later return to previous levels it still represents a delay in using up the available carbon budget.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 02, 2020, 06:12:41 AM
^^
Ramen!!


Temps will spike in the coming months unless the world's economy makes a remarkable recovery.

This is the first example we've faced of the paradox where burning fewer fossil fuels releases fewer aerosols which results in higher temperatures. A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.
This effect will be far more widespread & will be much longer lasting.


With less aerosol masking, the arctic could experience additional ice loss. Enhanced warming of sub-arctic permafrost will ensure additional methane release, possibly enough additional CH4 to make up for the reduction of AGW emissions. The possibility of a BOE will be greatly enhanced.


Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 02, 2020, 07:34:24 AM
A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.

Can't find the study but as I remember the effect was not 2 C but 0,2-0,3C. Hard to exactly measure though and involved some guesstimates
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wolfpack513 on March 02, 2020, 08:37:30 AM
The impact on AGW is dependent on the extent and time frame .
Expect a spike in global temperatures as aerosols fall due to less air travel, sea freight and energy use. This  is due the removal of  aerosol's masking our real effect on global temperatures.
An economic down turn will result in less emissions.  Even if they later return to previous levels it still represents a delay in using up the available carbon budget.

Don’t step over a dollar to pick up a quarter.  The drop in emissions will give us a few extra months to the carbon budget but the economic impacts will be much worse in long term efforts to fight AGW.  Governments and corporations will now have to delay investments, transitions, priorities because of the massive hit.  I would gladly trade for the ~2GtCo2 in the Carbon budget from 2008-2010 rather than the delay that financial crisis caused.  The right wing governments emerging worldwide the last 5 years is a symptom.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 02, 2020, 01:24:20 PM
A similar effect occurred when the US restricted it's airspace after 9/11, jet trails were curtailed and temperatures increased by ~20C within days.

Can't find the study but as I remember the effect was not 2 C but 0,2-0,3C. Hard to exactly measure though and involved some guesstimates
You memory may well be more accurate than mine.  ;)
The effect of the sudden loss of aerosol masking however shouldn't be minimized.


Whatever is gained by the sudden loss of GHG emissions will almost certainly by undone in the short term by the equally sudden loss of masking aerosols. My fear is that a temperature spike will do enough damage to rainforests and other natural sinks that, combined with additional gasses released from melted permafrost, it will speed us toward our immutable date with climatic catastrophe.


That this will occur while the world's trade is in disarray will preclude many nations from investing in infrastructure that might otherwise have mitigated some of the effects of AGW. The immediate costs associated with Covid-19 will drain emergency funds leaving little for fires, floods or other disasters attributable to the sudden spike in temperature.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 02, 2020, 01:59:48 PM
... including the billions of locusts breeding across Africa, Asia and the Middle East at the moment .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 03, 2020, 07:01:19 PM
From the coronavirus thread:

”The Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut Tuesday of half a percentage point in response to the growing economic threat from the novel coronavirus.
The move was the first such cut since December 2008, during the financial crisis.”

Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat coronavirus slowdown
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts-rates-by-half-a-percentage-point-to-combat-coronavirus-slowdown.html

"Central banks are pulling out a playbook that was designed to deal with financial problems and not to deal with public health problems. So I really think they're like a fish out of the water here. They have no idea how to contain or even to understand what may be about to happen in the public health area or the U.S. economy's response to that."
Fed is a 'fish out of the water' in fight against coronavirus, former Morgan Stanley chief economist says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-is-a-fish-out-of-the-water-in-fight-against-coronavirus-former-morgan-stanley-chief-economist-says.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 03, 2020, 10:19:43 PM
Sorry, this is not “global.”  Yet.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020. Dow closed down 790.32 points, to 25,913.00
Quote
Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) 3/3/20, 11:08 AM
I thought rate cuts were supposed to make markets go higher WTF
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234873248996904962

—-
Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) 3/3/20, 2:33 PM
Are the daily 1,000 point moves here to stay?
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234924813757620225
First graph below.

Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC)3/3/20, 2:49 PM
I'd like to turn myself in. I've committed a chart crime.
https://twitter.com/rampcapitalllc/status/1234928786262634498
Second graph below.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 04, 2020, 12:18:44 AM
Next Economic Downturn May Last Forever And A Day
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/03/next-economic-downturn-may-last-forever.html
Quote
Based on how Japan has fared over the last several decades it is difficult to see the green shoots of a global economic spring forth as a result of lower interest rates. In fact, the next economic downturn will likely envelope the planet and may last forever and a day. This is because central bank intervention and manipulation often carries with it negative unintended consequences. People often forget how lucky Japan has been during its trying times to be located next to China. Because of China's years of booming growth, Japan has been able to mitigate much of the pain that occurred when its economic bubble burst in 1992.

In the decades since, Japan's stock market has never again come near the lofty peak it hit back then. During the years after Japan's fall from grace, it was able to soften the impact of its economic problems by strengthening ties with rapidly growing China which needed help in developing its export-driven economy. Today many people feel the global economy is in a bubble eerily similar to the one experienced by Japan before its implosion. The question is not whether the market and economy are about to undergo a massive reset but when. Concern is also growing as to how deep, painful, and long the next downturn will last.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 04, 2020, 02:09:37 AM
Japan's bubble burst on 01.01.1990 .. I had spent a long time looking for a weakness so I remember it well .. by 1992 the Nikkei was already 10,000 points down from it's peak .. I guess Bruce is too young to remember and just googled .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 04, 2020, 02:22:32 AM
back to the present . On Monday the Dow defied gravity .. the gravity of the situation did not justify a record rise .. it just showed how far money and reality are apart .
  Tuesday's obviously panicky cut in interest rates was seen as such . A virus does not care , but Trump is not aware . As American's wake up to their leader's incompetence and the rate of COVID-19's spread , it is unlikely that any market recovery will have stamina . b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 04, 2020, 01:00:35 PM
Global Recession Now Baked in the Cake
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/global-recession-now-baked-in-the-cake-nDwvDXbJk0uc8TeSMMdSIQ
Quote
Six Key Points

Global Manufacturing PMI slumps to 47.2
Survey-record contraction in China; rest of the world stagnates on average
Global trade falls at fastest pace since April 2009
Global Manufacturing Decline Steepest Since 2009
Manufacturing employment declined for the third successive month in February, with the rate of job losses the fastest since August 2009.
Purchasing activity declined to the greatest extent in the series history (which started in October 2009).
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2020, 05:32:06 PM
Quote
*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaOne) 3/3/20, 1:42 PM
U. S. TREASURY 10-YEAR YIELD FALLS BELOW 1% FOR FIRST TIME
https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1234912117423136768
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 04, 2020, 06:20:13 PM
Via CNN (https://www.ccn.com/heres-why-big-rate-cuts-wont-stop-dow-from-plunging-into-bear-market/):
Quote
According to the [Brookings Institutution] study, global GDP would contract by over $9 trillion in case the global pandemic leads to a “more serious outbreak similar to the Spanish [sic*] flu.”

In either case, the [American, I presume] economy and the stock market have a bleak outlook this year. It’s likely that no amount or quantity of [Federal Reserve] rate cuts will stop the Dow Jones from plunging into a bear market.

With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg252452.html#msg252452), maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."
__________
 

* - The "Spanish Flu" name is a misnomer (https://publichealthengland.exposure.co/spanish-flu-a-hundred-years-on) and should be called "the 1918 flu pandemic" or something.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 04, 2020, 06:42:31 PM
Quote from: Tor Bejnar
With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post, maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."

On the other hand, it took 1 month to mutate into 2 varieties in a population of ~ 500,000 infected.

Imagine, how many mutations could happen in the next 12 months in a billion bodies.

Also, will 1 vaccine work on both variants?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 04, 2020, 11:34:14 PM
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Rodius on March 05, 2020, 03:34:19 AM
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.

I have two young sons, both of which get a fairly blunt assessment from me concerning climate change so there are few illusions in our family.
While I dont disagree with the above assessment, I wonder how much the youth of today are going to tolerate the upcoming bullshit before they lose their shit?

People over 60 truly need to suck it up and those who are retiring need to stop feeling so entitled to everything and then some just because they worked for it..... I find that people over 60 tend to sit on the entitle pedestal without realizing just how lucky they have been to be in the sweet spot for taking advantage of everything without having to deal with the consequences.

I wish with all my heart that Western Peoples would act better. I spent 2 years living in a village in Samoa... the elders were cared for by the youth. The elders worked hard in their time, supported community and village, and they dont walk around feeling like the world owes them. They understand that the village/community needs to be strong on all levels in order for the whole system to remain strong and that the long term decision making sits on their shoulders and they do exactly that by planning ahead with their grandkids in mind.

Why arent we doing this on a global scale?
Why are our elders retiring and hoarding at the expense of the youth?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: nanning on March 05, 2020, 06:16:07 AM
Great framing, example and reasoning in my view Rodius, thank you. Beautiful.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 05, 2020, 07:16:08 PM
Next Comes The “Turbulent Twenties”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/next-comes-the-turbulent-twenties/
Quote
Accordingly, ten malefic trends will dominate national life during the long night of reckoning which lies ahead.
The spectacular failure of Keynesian central banking;
A prolonged, painful reversal of the three-decade long hyper-inflation of financial asset prices that has resulted in the Everything Bubble;
The violent implosion of America’s fiscal accounts;
An intensified central bank war on savers, fixed income retirees and holders of cash;
 Peak Debt-induced suffocation of domestic economic growth;
Ferocious global economic headwinds arising from the demise of the Red Ponzi;
An outbreak of unprecedented partisan acrimony rendering Washington completely dysfunctional and imperiling America’s very constitutional foundation;
The lapse of Imperial Washington into belligerence, retreat and failure all around the planet;
The Baby Boom retirement tsunami, which will cause entitlement spending to soar and generational conflict to erupt like never before; and
A virulent outbreak of class warfare and redistributionist political conflict unprecedented in American history owing to a stagnating economic pie.

This is a bracing read, but Peak Prosperity's business model is to put alarming content in front of its paywall and then ask for money to get behind the paywall where the magic, secret strategies to deal with it all can be found. FWIW.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Bernard on March 06, 2020, 11:48:33 AM
Quote from: Tor Bejnar
With the possibility of "S type" Covid-19 dominating (instead of "L type"), per this Vox_mundi post, maybe the Covid-19 pandemic won't be "similar to the [1918 flu pandemic]."
On the other hand, it took 1 month to mutate into 2 varieties in a population of ~ 500,000 infected.

Already posted in the covid-19 thread : https://nextstrain.org/ncov
176 different genomes sampled as of today
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 06, 2020, 03:44:11 PM
WTI Crude @ $ 44.10 a barrel
Nymex LNG @ $ 1.75 million BTU

DJ down 13.55% in the last month,
Euro Stoxx 50 down 15.21% in the last month,
FTSE 100 down 14.14% in the last month.

That's gotta hurt.

Being clobbered by slowing demand & slowing supply = double ouch.

Half an hour later WTI Crude @ $ 43.87 a barrel. Do I smell panic? Rest of the day might be interesting.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 06, 2020, 08:43:38 PM
WTI Crude 41.36  :o

We have not seen anything yet wait until airlines , tourism and entertainment venues  start collapsing.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 07, 2020, 01:24:20 AM
"Flutter" is a self-induced harmonic vibration pattern. This instability can grow to very large oscillations before failure and collapse.

---------------------------

Wild Market Swings Are Becoming the 'New Normal' Amid Coronavirus Concerns
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/06/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html

Investors just witnessed the equity benchmark swinging up or down 2% for five days straight in the face of a coronavirus panic, and Wall Street strategists say get used to it.

In the index's history dating back to 1927, this is the first time the S&P 500 had a week of alternating gains and losses of more than 2% from Monday through Thursday, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 07, 2020, 08:11:25 PM
THIS IS IT!
https://goldswitzerland.com/this-is-it/
Quote
The coming downturn will not take 40 years. When bubbles burst, everything unravels very quickly. It could take say 3-7 years for the Dow to come down 90% or more. In 1929-32 it took less than 3 years for the Dow to fall 90%. And the situation today is much more serious when it comes to overvaluations, debts, deficits etc.

Doug Casey: The “Greater Depression” Is Coming
https://www.caseyresearch.com/daily-dispatch/doug-casey-the-greater-depression-is-coming/
Quote
Rather than let the market adjust itself, government typically starts the process all over again with a new and larger “stimulus package.” The more often this happens, the more ingrained become the distortions in the way people consume and invest, and the nastier the eventual depression.
This is why I predict the Greater Depression will be… well… greater. This is going to be one for the record books. Much different, much longer lasting, and much worse than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: etienne on March 07, 2020, 10:32:41 PM
I am not sure that it makes sense to compare what is happening now and what happened almost a century ago. We are much more dependent than we used to be. Who can say that he produces more than 10% of its food ? It was very different. We are also much more people than a century ago, and climate change makes everything worse. I don't have a clue for the future.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 08, 2020, 07:59:16 AM
Saudi-Arabia started a price war on the oil market, because of a failed meeting. All quota are of the table. That will flood the market. The same time the cornavirus spreads rapidly across the globe. A quarter of all Italians are already in lockdown, more supply chains halted. I think we will see a global lockdown before the end of the year.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 08, 2020, 09:12:14 AM
This will cause a recession in 2020 for sure. Also pretty sure that 2021 will bring a new upcycle in the global economy. This COVID outbreak is a typical outside shock not an inherent weakness, a sort of black swan. Once the shock is over, the economy will return to growth. No 3-7 or 40 year depression. Governments will use huge fiscal stimulus financed by printing money. This is going to be deep but quick
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 08, 2020, 10:29:14 AM
It's an inherent weakness, until 2018 there was no african swine fever in Asia. And now it's in almost every country in Asia. The frequency of outbreaks will be much higher in the future on every continent.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 08, 2020, 12:02:55 PM
This will cause a recession in 2020 for sure. Also pretty sure that 2021 will bring a new upcycle in the global economy. This COVID outbreak is a typical outside shock not an inherent weakness, a sort of black swan. Once the shock is over, the economy will return to growth. No 3-7 or 40 year depression. Governments will use huge fiscal stimulus financed by printing money. This is going to be deep but quick
There is systemic weakness. If Covid19 has not popped the bubble now something else would have next year.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 08, 2020, 12:47:41 PM
El Cid ,
printing money stops working .. ask the inter-war Germans or Mugabe's Zimbabweans . The dollar is already losing it's value . So is oil . The Renminbi looks like the winning currency if one still exists . The inherent weakness(es) in the global economy cannot handle even a glimpse of a black swan event .
   b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 08, 2020, 08:08:08 PM
We shall see friends.

You all lean towards apocalypse and that hadows your thinking  - me says.
Governments have not used there huge powers for many years. They can and will create huge fiscal stimulus. They are not out of firepower at all. Fiscal stimulus works and has always worked.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 08, 2020, 09:13:38 PM
One thing we learned from the coronavirus. As soon there is a shortage of something, they all close their borders.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 09, 2020, 01:07:34 AM
bond yields slide  to oblivion , oil fracking off , SnP future froze at -5% .. thank goodness it's all going so well .  Nikkei down 666 .. credit heading into the abyss .. the girls chat on Bloomberg . nite nite .. b.c.

 .. and then there's a virus .. wish it was digital .. wash your hands ..

 .. now dow futures down 1000+  4.2%
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 09, 2020, 03:10:20 AM
Yup. Australia and Japan both down about 6% right now.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/03/08/dow-futures-plunge-1-000-points-crude-prices-tumble-oil-price-war/4996351002/

Looks like we could be heading for a global stock market crash. But who knows?

Of course, we had already been heading that direction for the last few days...

Quote
...$9 trillion was wiped off global stocks in nine days...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/investing/stock-dow-futures-coronavirus/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 09, 2020, 04:43:18 AM
WTI oil is at $27.95, down 32% from the previous session. I have been trading financial markets for almost two decades, and cannot recall such a drop.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 09, 2020, 06:18:06 AM
oren, your recollection seems accurate:

Quote
Oil futures tumbled 31% in a matter of seconds overnight on Sunday, their sharpest decline since the Gulf War in 1991

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/oil-price-crash-market-drop-global-price-war-futures-coronavirus-2020-3
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 09, 2020, 07:40:44 AM
In the same vein, S&P 500 Futures have hit their limit down (set at +/-5% outside US trading hours) and are staying there. This last happened in 2008 IIRC.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 09, 2020, 09:32:33 AM
Crude plummeted....
The fracking boom is losing billions as is.
With the oil price collapsing?
The   implosion of the fracking industry alone  could be enough to place  the USA into recession.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 09, 2020, 01:23:22 PM
If this thing collapses the fracking industry, i would count this as a net-positive.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 09, 2020, 01:28:01 PM
But with gasoline prices crashing will people drive more?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 09, 2020, 01:37:39 PM
Not if there are limitations on movement and if many choose / are forced to quarantine at home.
The real question is how long it will last, and thus will it have a lasting impact?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 09, 2020, 02:02:12 PM
yep BK .. there are many positives for the planet in an economic collapse . Fracking and tar sands are expensive to produce .. the oil that needs least investment and pollution wins out for now .
I heard Donald did a deal with China earlier this year .. unfortunately for the USA he sold dollars worth rather than barrels . If so China now gets twice the oil for their money . A fabulous deal .. the Best Deal Ever !   b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 09, 2020, 02:22:29 PM
Dow Futures down 1,255 as of 8:18 EST.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: GoodeWeather on March 09, 2020, 02:50:16 PM
Dow Futures down 1,255 as of 8:18 EST.

Dow is in free fall this morning down over 1,800 points!!!!!!!
Over 7% down!!!

Edit:   TRADING HALTED IN THE FIRST 15 minuets!!!!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 09, 2020, 03:10:26 PM
Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

Quote
It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/shockwave-of-oil-price-crash-slams-markets-sending-stocks-around-the-world-plummeting

Quote
Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

https://www.ft.com/content/8273a32a-61e4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Quote
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: GoodeWeather on March 09, 2020, 03:18:43 PM
Yup, crazy sh!t goin' down:

Quote
It is the most crude price-bearish combination since the early 1930s. The price collapse has just begun

https://business.financialpost.com/investing/shockwave-of-oil-price-crash-slams-markets-sending-stocks-around-the-world-plummeting

Quote
Italy’s FTSE MIB lost more than a tenth of its value ...

https://www.ft.com/content/8273a32a-61e4-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68

Quote
Joachim Fels, global economic adviser at US asset manager Pimco, said a recession in the US and the eurozone in the first half of the year was now “a distinct possibility” and that Japan was “very likely” already in one.

Nearly all the stock market gains since Trump became president have been wiped out...they were all an illusion

Didn't take a genius to see how over inflated the market was.  Just wait until major supply chains get ruptured.  A bottleneck has already appeared and if things continue like this, we will most likely see the DJI fall below 20,000. 
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 09, 2020, 03:35:01 PM
Markets around the world are nosediving on Monday owing to a combination of plummeting oil prices and a surge in global coronavirus cases.
Quote
A group of oil-producing nations known as OPEC failed to reach a deal with its allies over oil output cuts following a meeting in Vienna on Friday. This led OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia to slash its official selling prices for April and reportedly prepare for an increase in production.
The shocking move came after OPEC ally Russia rejected the 14-member organization’s recommended production cuts of 1.5 million barrels per day from April until the end of the year in a bid to support energy prices, which along with global stock markets have been ravaged by falling demand amid the coronavirus outbreak.

The Kremlin’s decision not to help prop up energy prices not only shattered the coalition efforts to curb production, but will also likely impact U.S. shale oil producers.
“If you look at Russia, they do not consider indefinite production cuts to be a viable strategy for their oil industry, I think they need to see a structural shift in the supply side, that is the only way you move beyond this era of cuts, and U.S. shale, I would say, is firmly in the crosshairs,” Thom Payne, head of offshore, rigs and wells at Westwood Global Energy Group, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday.
Payne added that Russia “smells blood” in the weak U.S. shale sector and would be looking to shave 1.5 to 2 million barrels a day off U.S. shale production, which has increased sharply in recent years.

By the market close in Asia Pacific, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix indexes fell by more than 5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 4.23% and mainland Chinese stocks declined by more than 3%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 plunged 7.33%
European stocks also tanked on Monday, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 tumbling 8.1% to enter bear market territory. Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 11.5% to lead losses in the region while Britain’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC 40 each shed more than 8%.

Stateside, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 1,800 points at market open and trading was suspended for 15 minutes after the S&P 500 dropped 7%, triggering a “circuit breaker.”
Spooked investors have flocked to traditional safe haven assets such as bonds, sending the yield on U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury note to a staggering all-time low of below 0.34% for a brief period on Monday morning, while the 30-year Treasury bond yield tumbled below 0.74%. Yields made a slight recovery by mid-morning but were still hovering near their historic lows.

Recession not depression?
While comparisons are being drawn to the 2008 financial crisis, Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, highlighted that while 2008 was what economists term a “balance sheet” recession which impacted aggregate demand, the current economic shock resulting from the coronavirus affects both the supply and demand side of the economy.

“Factory shutdowns, travel bans, supply-chain disruptions and school closures represent a supply shock — the ability of the economy to produce goods and services is diminished,” Shearing said in a note Monday.
“But fewer trips to shops, restaurants and cinemas represent a demand shock — consumer spending falls. Large falls in the stock market also feed into weaker demand by reducing household wealth.”

Shearing suggested that the worst-case scenario at present is very different from 2008, when asset price collapses were magnified by high levels of leverage and vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
“Pockets of risk exist — particularly in the corporate sector — and some of these vulnerabilities in the energy sector may be exposed by the sharp drop in oil prices over the past day. But we don’t think these are large enough (yet) to trigger a global crisis,” he said.
“All of this means that the most likely worst-case scenario today is a sharp but probably short recession rather than an outright depression.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/coronavirus-heres-why-financial-markets-are-tanking.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 09, 2020, 03:58:32 PM
"...recession rather than an outright depression"

Awwww, how very comforting! /sark

"When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession.
When you lose your job, that’s a depression!"
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 09, 2020, 05:39:37 PM
FFS
The pundits dont get it .
The bite has only just started we are only at the beginning of the global pandemic.
What happens when large  parts of every country are in lock down ?
Gas price who cares?
No one will be going anywhere
Tourism is gonna die. hotels, tour company's, cruise lines, airlines, restaurants, concert venues all going bankrupt. That is about 5% of GDP for the OECD evaporating over night.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 09, 2020, 05:58:47 PM
"...recession rather than an outright depression"

Awwww, how very comforting! /sark

"When your neighbor loses their job, it’s a recession.
When you lose your job, that’s a depression!"

Yes.  Most financial analysts, particularly at CNBC, have a great deal of difficulty envisioning a future that is significantly different than current conditions.  Or at least, they feel unable to voice it.  Something about needing to believe a thing if your job depends on it.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 09, 2020, 06:19:54 PM
The markets are starting to worry about cash-flow of companies and the banks.

So many companies now don't just rely on "just-in-time" supply chains, but perhaps even worse on "just-in-time" cash-flow. Back in the day the rule-of-thumb was for a company to always have 30 days operating cash in the bank for hiccups - of their own money. Now most companies rely on bank finance even for daily operations - next month's or even next quarter's sales keep the bank at bay.

With very low bank interest rates for companies it works fine - until it doesn't. Pressure is on Governments to help plug the gaps with fiscal stimulus (late payment of taxes etc).



Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 09, 2020, 08:46:08 PM
Stock market live updates: Dow down more than 1,700, banks punished, oil tanks 20%
Quote
3:15 pm: Gundlach says ‘things have to get worse’ in the credit market
DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, often called the “Bond King,” told CNBC’s Scott Wapner in an email that the credit market is holding up so far during Monday’s turbulent trading, but that he expects it to get worse. “I am concerned. Things have to get worse – you don’t have a move like this end without disorder. It just never happens,” Gundlach said, according to Wapner. — Pound

3:04 pm: Here’s where we stand with just under an hour before the close
Stocks are slightly above their lows of the day as we begin the final hour of trading. The Dow is down more than 1900 points, or 7.4%, while the S&P 500 is down 7.2% and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 6.6%. The Dow is currently on track for its biggest percentage loss since 2008. If the index closes down by more than 7.87%, it’ll be the worst day since 1987. — Pound, Francolla

2:51 pm: Oil prices plummet more than 20% in worst day since 1991
Oil prices cratered on Monday after tensions rose between Saudi Arabia and Russia over the weekend, prompting fears of an oversupply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate tumbled 24.59%, or $10.15, to settle at $31.13 per barrel. It was WTI’s worst day since 1991, and second worst day on record. During the session the contract traded as low as $30.
On Friday, OPEC ally Russia rejected additional production cuts proposed by the 14-member cartel, which prompted Saudi Arabia to retaliate. On Saturday, the kingdom announced massive discounts to its official selling prices for April, and the nation is reportedly preparing to increase its production above the 10 million barrel per day mark, according to a Reuters report. The kingdom currently pumps 9.7 million barrels per day, but has the capacity to ramp up to 12.5 million barrels per day. —Stevens

2:03 pm: Dow hits session low, down more than 2,000 points
Stocks accelerated loses in afternoon trading with the Dow Jones Industrial Average cratering more than 2,060 points. The S&P 500 lost 7.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6.95%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/stock-market-today-live.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 09, 2020, 09:01:25 PM
Dow down 2015 .. worst day ever .. b.c.

Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 09, 2020, 09:21:35 PM
Orderly chaos? Bond market problems as Dow closes down over 2,000 points.

Bond market breakdown sees historic spread between buyers and sellers
Quote
Record-breaking yields in the Treasury market are part of action not seen in bonds for 40 years, according to JP Morgan's Bob Michele.

Liquidity issues in which buyers and sellers are having a hard time coming together on prices are just part of the problem, Michele, the firm's chief investment officer and head of global fixed income, said Monday on CNBC's "Power Lunch."

"I've been doing this 40 years. I've never seen that before," Michele told CNBC's Steve Liesman, who inquired about half-point difference in what buyers were willing to pay and sellers were willing to sell for, referred to as the bid-ask spread.

In fact, Michele said that at one point he received a call from JP Morgan Asset Management's London office to say that there were no offers on the 30-year bond.
"I've never seen that before," he said. "These are uncharted times for sure."


The liquidity issues happened as the 10-year yield at one point fell below 0.4% and the 30-year bond dropped below 1%, both firsts in a bond market that has seen a stampede of buyers looking for safety amid the coronavirus scare and a price war in the oil market.

However, some high-profile market veterans said the liquidity issues are not unusual and not threatening to the proper functioning of markets. Both David Tepper of Appaloosa Management and Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital both told CNBC that the issues are likely temporary and that the moves in markets, though dramatic, have been orderly.

Michele said the Federal Reserve is going to need to provide more easing, and he expects an announcement could come as soon as today. The Fed last week instituted a 50 basis point emergency rate cut and on Monday announced it was increasing the amount available in its short-term funding, or repo, program for banks.
...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/09/bond-market-malfunctioning-part-of-uncharted-times-for-sure.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 10, 2020, 08:19:45 AM
Dow down 2015 .. worst day ever .. b.c.

Pointwise yes, percentagewise not at all. I remember 1987 October: 22% in a single day. This is nothing :)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 10, 2020, 09:20:05 AM
I warned @ 1987 coming too .. tried to get my banking uncle to sell his shares .. he too new better ..
of course there was no epidemic just beginning then , or a just in time supply line , or Donald Ducking reality in the Whitehouse .  ,  b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: johnm33 on March 10, 2020, 10:22:21 AM
Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it? Their costs are about $7pb but need a price around $20 for long term sustainability, S.A. costs are around $3pb but need about $85pb for their quota to sustain their luxury socialist welfare state, they simply don't have the capacity to cover these costs at lower prices, frackers need $50 to break even $60pb to meet debt obligations.  At $20pb demand for dollars would crash, meanwhile reserves held in treasuries would have to be liquidated, what could go wrong?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 10, 2020, 09:29:00 PM
Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it?

Great joke if I might say so. Russia and free markets should not really be in the same sentence. Ever. (I studied in Moscow, I have first hand experience)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 11, 2020, 11:29:52 AM
Saudi-Arabia starts to ramp up oil production from today, an extra 1 million barrels.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: interstitial on March 11, 2020, 02:51:22 PM
The price Suadi Arabia needs depends on the volume. Since their costs are about $2.80 a barrel. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-saudi-arabia-s-price-war-worked-once-but-may-backfire (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/oil-crash-saudi-arabia-s-price-war-worked-once-but-may-backfire)
if they increase volume 20% the price they need drops 20% plus costs. It doesn't really solve the problem for them but it does help. I am sure they will cut at least some spending as well.  They were also looking to increase their wealth fund about 60 billion this year. I am not certain about that number but nor do I know how much they already have set aside. Some crude math suggests eliminating this would drop the price they need about $13.69 a barrel. All in they can survive on far less than $80 a barrel.


Shut in prices for north dakota are $15.00 a barrel.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-shale-prices-kemp/breakeven-and-shut-in-prices-for-oil-wells-kemp-idUSKBN0KN07C20150114 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-shale-prices-kemp/breakeven-and-shut-in-prices-for-oil-wells-kemp-idUSKBN0KN07C20150114)
Given this cost completed wells in US will get pumped dry. There are also many drilled but not compleated wells that can pumped for a time.  Unfortunately all these wells will continue to produce for some time to come. The drillers may go bankrupt but the creditors will pump the oil anyway. Another complicating factor is prices are often locked in the futures market before production begins anyway.


The increase in EV sales probably won't be that noticable in oil markets this year but I hope it will start to effect demand soon.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 11, 2020, 03:00:09 PM
Dow -778 and dropping and it’s only been half an hour.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 11, 2020, 04:41:04 PM
Britain unveils $39 billion spending package as it tries to tackle coronavirus slowdown
Quote
The U.K. government will spend billions of pounds in an effort to limit the impact of the coronavirus on the U.K. economy, the country's finance chief said Wednesday.

The virus outbreak, which emerged in China in late 2019, has been putting pressure on all major economies by significantly reducing supply chains, hitting demand for travel, as well as fueling panic buying and stockpiling. Various economists and organizations, such as the OECD, have trimmed their global growth forecasts as a result.

Rishi Sunak, appointed finance chief last month, told the U.K. Parliament that there would be £7 billion ($9 billion) available to support the labor market and an additional £5 billion to help the health-care system.

Sunak also announced a further fiscal loosening of £18 billion to support the U.K. economy, bringing the total fiscal stimulus to £30 billion. The U.K. public body, the Office for Budget Responsibility, called it the largest budget giveaway since 1992. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/uk-government-announces-12-billion-pounds-to-tackle-coronavirus-in-2020-budget.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 11, 2020, 04:49:12 PM
60% to 70% of the German population will be infected by the coronavirus, Merkel says
Quote
...  Merkel said Berlin would spend whatever was necessary to contain the virus in Germany, but declined to commit to providing direct material aid to virus-stricken Italy.

Confirmed cases in Italy have surpassed 10,000 with deaths spiking to 631, and Merkel told reporters that her government would play its part in combating the fallout from the epidemic, insisting a proposed European Union package of fiscal measures would not fail because of Germany.

More than 121,000 cases and 4,368 deaths have now been confirmed around the world.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/angela-merkel-most-people-will-get-the-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 11, 2020, 05:09:43 PM
The Dow Is Tumbling Again.   Goldman Sachs: 'Bull Market Will Soon End.
Mar 11, 2020 11:15AM EDT
Quote
The [U.S.] markets want fiscal stimulus—and aren’t getting it. Goldman Sachs slashed its earnings estimate for the companies in the S&P 500 and predicts that the bull market is ending.

Another day, another 1000 point drop for the Dow Jones Industrial Average after U.S. Senator for Iowa Chuck Grassley said that the U.S. should consider reducing the payroll tax but there’s no need for action as of yet.

The stock market is unthrilled. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has tumbled 1,008.19 points, or 4%, to 24,009.97, while the S&P 500 has dropped 3.7% to 2777.79, and the Nasdaq Composite has fallen 3.3% to 8,072.83. The 10-year Treasury has slipped .05 percentage point to 0.71
...
The problem for U.S. stocks, however, is one of earnings, according to Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. After recently cutting his earnings forecast for the S&P 500 to $165 a share, he slashed it once again to $157, a drop of 5% from last year. That leads him to one obvious conclusion: “We believe the S&P 500 bull market will soon end,” he writes. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-dow-is-tumbling-again.-bull-market-will-soon-end.-2020-03-11
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: GoodeWeather on March 11, 2020, 05:40:36 PM
W.H.O declares pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-11-20-intl-hnk/h_0cc7fc92661bca767fbee35c5e5fedd1

I suspect the market to have a sell off in the second half of today.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 11, 2020, 09:38:52 PM
^^
Finally!!
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 11, 2020, 10:20:29 PM
Dow down 1464/5.86%
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 11, 2020, 10:54:59 PM
looks like the bear is now mauling the bullshitter extraordinaire in the Oval office . CGTN is asking how we are still so ill-informed in the west considering what happened in China . A reasonable question .
  Today showed Donald more concerned with money than people . Not a great impression . Future presidents should have light pockets when entering and leaving office . Personal wealth should not influence  life and death decisions . After all , T'rump cannot afford to be the president that caused his personal wealth to collapse .. however the health support system as such is expendable , as is up to 20% of the population .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2020, 02:14:57 AM
Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 11-Year Bull Run Ends
Blue-chip stock index drops more than 1,400 points, closing a bull run that started in 2009
Quote
The longest-ever bull market for U.S. stocks ended Wednesday.

The downturn, marked by a 20% decline from the most recent high for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, heightens fears that the economic expansion that began following the financial crisis could also be on its last legs. Stocks have crumbled, oil prices have tanked and U.S. government bond yields have plumbed record lows in the face of the rapidly spreading coronavirus.


The Dow closed at 23553.22, down 20.3% from its record of 29,551.42 reached Feb. 12. That ended the bull market that began March 9, 2009, one of the bleakest points of the crisis.
The S&P 500 is still shy of a bear market, down 19% from its Feb. 19 peak. It has shed about $5 trillion in market value; the benchmark closed down 4.9% for the day to 2741.38.

Share prices declined rapidly as coronavirus spread around the world and took hold in the U.S.
Schools are sending students home. Consumers are canceling vacation plans. And in New York City, the country’s financial center, banks have deployed contingency plans used during crises like the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Wednesday’s stock-market declines accelerated after the World Health Organization declared the new coronavirus a pandemic and said it is “deeply concerned” by the “spread and severity” of the virus and by “alarming levels of inaction.” The Dow ended the day down 1464.94 points, or 5.9%, weighed down by an 18% drop in shares of Boeing.

Adding to the shock for investors: the speed of the market’s fall. The move from all-time high to bear-market territory was the fastest on record for the Dow, taking just 19 sessions.

In previous downturns, it has taken the index on average 136 trading days to enter a bear market from a recent high, according to Dow Jones Market Data. It has taken an additional 143 days from the bear-market entry to the low and 63 trading days from the low to exit from the bear market.


Unlike during prior market scares, Federal Reserve action has proved ineffective so far in bringing calm to investors.

Stocks briefly rallied at the start of the month after the Fed lowered interest rates by a half percentage point, executing its first inter-meeting rate cut since the 2008 financial crisis. But within minutes, the gains gave way to selling again, as traders questioned how effective central bank policy, as opposed to the development of a widely available vaccine or treatment, would be in fighting disease. ...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-markets-calmer-after-two-hectic-days-11583899913
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 12, 2020, 11:33:01 AM
Dow futures down 1226.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 12, 2020, 02:00:12 PM
Era of Growth, Corona-Virus, Era of Decline. Discuss.
https://econimica.blogspot.com/2020/03/growth-corona-virus-decline-discuss.html
Quote
I'm going to suggest that the Corona-virus is more a window or a marker that separates what will be seen as the end of an era and the beginning of another.  Corona-virus is serious, global, and appears it will cause significant death and disruption.  There is likely to be 9 to 18 months of global pandemic with a potential of high infection and significant loss of life.  But after the pandemic, things are more likely to return to "normal".  Corona-virus itself isn't the problem (no more than Spanish Flu was in 1918/1919).  And it's the discussion of what is the "normal" we have seen over the past 7 decades versus the current and coming decades that I hope to spur.
To begin, the chart below shows the annual change in the under 60 year old US population (green line) versus annual change in 60+ year old US population (yellow line).  Also shown is annual US federal deficit split between public debt (red columns) and Intragovernmental (IG...blue columns representing Social Security, etc.), and lastly the federal funds rate (black line).  Simply, as population growth of the working age population slowed, first large scale legal and illegal immigration was utilized to maintain economic and financial growth.  However, since 2008, working age population growth has rapidly decelerated and immigration slowed...and in their place have come interest rate cuts to zero and accompanying massive debt (I show federal debt below, but corporate debt has also binged of the nearly free money to buy their own stock and pay dividends).  2019 was the first year in US history the working-age population declined...and of course all net US population growth now comes among the elderly.  The elderly who, on average, earn/spend half as much as during their peak years, are highly credit averse, and prefer to pay down existing mortgages and debt.  Oh, and 2020 births and immigration are trending even lower while Federal debt creation has the potentially to surpass the '08/'09 levels as Trump pushes for further tax cuts / infrastructure, etc. spending.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2020, 02:48:41 PM
US stock trading halted after S&P 500 drops 7%, hits circuit breakers
Quote
U.S. stocks hit critical circuit breaker levels on Thursday minutes after the opening bell for the second time this week as global markets plunged amid investor fears about the coronavirus global pandemic.
Just as they did on Monday, the S&P 500 hit the New York Stock Exchange's 7% threshold decline in morning trading, halting trade during regular market hours for 15 minutes to ensure order in the marketplace.

Trading will resume at 9:50 a.m. ET.

What is a 'circuit breaker'?

According to the New York Stock Exchange, a market trading halt occurs at "three circuit breaker thresholds" on the S&P 500 due to large declines and volatility. The exchange classifies this at three levels based on the preceding session's close in the S&P 500.

The rules, which apply to regular trading hours only, are as follows:

Level 1: If the S&P 500 drops 7%, trading will pause for 15 minutes.
Level 2: If the S&P 500 declines 13%, trading will again pause for 15 minutes if the drop occurs on or before 3:25 p.m. ET. There will be no halt if the drop happens after that.
Level 3: If the S&P 500 falls 20%, trading would halt for the remainder of the day.

The prior circuit breaker system was revamped after it failed to prevent the May 2010 flash crash when the Dow lost hundreds of points in just a few seconds. The current set of breakers were put into effect in February 2013.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/12/stock-futures-hit-a-limit-down-trading-halt-for-a-second-time-this-week-heres-what-that-means.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2020, 02:55:13 PM
Era of Growth, Corona-Virus, Era of Decline. Discuss.
...


Might fit in well with the major loss of jobs due to automation and AI we know is imminent.  Now companies can blame it on the changes they had to make during the coronavirus outbreak.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 03:38:15 PM
A headline from Bloomberg says it all...

3/11/2020
Nowhere to Hide:
Stocks and Bonds Suffer Losses Worse Than 2008
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 12, 2020, 05:34:32 PM
Dow Jones Industrial Average

21,596.00 −1,957.22 (8.31%)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 12, 2020, 06:22:58 PM
The Real Reason Why the Dow Jones Crash Is Far From Over
https://www.ccn.com/the-real-reason-why-the-dow-jones-crash-is-far-from-over/
Quote
Dow Jones Industrial Averagw
With the Dow in a bear market, some investors are hoping for a bounce. Activity in the bond market suggests we may still reach further lows.
Dow Jones has rallied strongly on certain days, but fierce rallies are indicative of a bear market.
Widening credit spreads suggests bond markets are expecting stocks to continue heading lower.
The coronavirus outbreak will cripple the U.S. economy in the coming weeks, and the markets have not priced in this scenario.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 12, 2020, 07:49:00 PM
The 'really great depression' is gaining ground . Euro stocks have reached levels of 1997 already . the ftse100 fell 10% today and the dow jones is hovering down 2000 again . Cash rules even as it's value drains away .. b.c.
  St paddy's day cancelled !
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 12, 2020, 08:02:49 PM
^^
The Loonie is falling like a rock.
72.227 as we speak.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 09:06:04 PM
21.200,95 −2.352,27 (9,99 %)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2020, 09:16:18 PM
Thurs March 12, 2020  21,200.95-2,352.27 (-9.99%)
Dow plunges 10% in biggest one-day percentage drop since 1987
U.S. stocks tumbled more than 9% as Wall Street extended its historically ugly sell-off, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq joining the Dow in entering a bear market.
Quote
In a televised address Wednesday night, Trump said he was suspending travel from certain areas of Europe to the U.S. for the next 30 days. He also announced plans for $50 billion of low interest loans to affected businesses and suggested a delay in the April 15 tax filing deadline.
However, the speech sparked widespread confusion — and failed to mollify panic-stricken investors. Major benchmarks sank deeper into correction territory at the open, triggering a circuit-breaker during the regular session shortly after 9:30 a.m. ET.
...
“President Trump’s address to the nation was symptomatic of the lack of policy coordination in the face of a global coronavirus pandemic,” Oxford Economics’ Gregory Daco said.
“Markets reacted negatively to what was perceived as a solemn but confused speech that placed blame on other nations, omitted to focus on immediate actions to relieve the most affected individuals, and lacked in concrete fiscal and health measures to address the economic and financial impact of the virus,” the analyst added.

The selloff suggests investors were hoping for much more — such as what Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir suggested should have been a worldwide fiscal stimulus plan coordinated among large economies.
“I'm disappointed with what we got,” Tchir added. And other market professionals were even more alarmed.
“The U.S. limiting entry to foreign nationals from Europe has the potential to cause another world depression again even if it is for reasons that seek to stop the spread of the coronavirus,” MUFG economist Chris Rupkey said.
“Business activity is going to hit the brakes around the world and stock markets around the world are in freefall as the spread of this deadly pandemic virus has the potential to slow the global economy to a crawl,” he added.
 ...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-march-12-013620137.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 12, 2020, 09:28:46 PM
Gold price dropping by a lot despite safe haven status.
Why? Traders & investors selling gold to raise cash to meet margin calls etc.

Another casualty of just-in-time finances.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 12, 2020, 09:56:22 PM
Thanks for that gerontocrat
I was surprised that gold was falling it usually skyrockets in this sort of situation.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 12, 2020, 10:04:32 PM
Gold price dropping by a lot despite safe haven status.

Same with bitcoin. It's insane. People sure love their fiat money...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 12, 2020, 10:10:02 PM
Gold price dropping by a lot despite safe haven status.
Why? Traders & investors selling gold to raise cash to meet margin calls etc.

Another casualty of just-in-time finances.

Yes, indeed.  In crises, people buy gold.  Except when they're forced to sell gold to meet obligations.  This also happened during the GFC.  It's a worrisome sign.  Not that my heart bleeds for those who own gold.  This is suggesting deep pain may be imminent for those who depend on a paycheck.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 12, 2020, 10:19:11 PM
Dow down 2015 .. worst day ever .. b.c.

Pointwise yes, percentagewise not at all. I remember 1987 October: 22% in a single day. This is nothing :)


it is now .. '87 was a one-off correction . This is a long steady decline until there is little value left .. hence my 'depression' .. pandemonium and pandemic beget panic . b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 12, 2020, 10:21:21 PM
A global recession is now a certainty, but I’m starting to wonder whether we’ll end up in a full-blown depression? Central banks are out of ammo and the Trump administration is clueless and has no coherent policy how to manage the situation.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 13, 2020, 03:32:34 AM
Bitcoin is down 44%. Another historic move in a week full of historic moves.
Though stock market moves do not necessarily reflect or forecast reflect recessions, this one is quite indicative of the economic disruption and uncertainty caused by the pandemic.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Ktb on March 13, 2020, 04:03:01 AM
I'll never forget the words my 10th grade US history teacher said to us: "You kids are so lucky, you're going to graduate college about when the recession ends and land great jobs."

Well unfortunately for me, I took 5.5 years for undergrad, and now finishing my masters degree. Just in time for another recession. Looks like I missed the luck boat.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 13, 2020, 05:34:54 AM
The American dollar is holding up very well. As a Canadian living on American investments my gains in currency exchange rates are so far more than covering the losses that the market is experiencing.


I lost ~1/3 of net worth in 2008-09 but the market has since made that up. I've enough to pay the taxes in both countries without selling anything off, and think things will turn around this time before I need to touch any capital.


Financially I'm still healthy, it's the rest of it that concerns me.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 13, 2020, 09:30:25 AM
(https://i.imgur.com/1QfbqDz.png)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 13, 2020, 09:33:01 AM
Quite similar with the Lehman Brothers crash
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 13, 2020, 09:35:13 AM
Found a better one and changed the image, Bluice.

Looks like this is unprecedented.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: johnm33 on March 13, 2020, 09:46:17 AM
"Central banks are out of ammo" They're never out of ammo, they can print to infinity or press a few keys to create fiat fortunes, the problem is that they are only concerned with making the banks whole, and the banks are blindly competing to hollow out their economies, what could go wrong?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 13, 2020, 10:24:04 AM
"Central banks are out of ammo" They're never out of ammo, they can print to infinity or press a few keys to create fiat fortunes, the problem is that they are only concerned with making the banks whole, and the banks are blindly competing to hollow out their economies, what could go wrong?
But if they print to infinity do we get ten digit hyperinflation?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 13, 2020, 10:41:10 AM
Did the billions and trillions they printed in order to make (illegal) war and save the (failed) financial system cause hyperinflation?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: johnm33 on March 13, 2020, 11:26:27 AM
"Hyperinflation" For as long as $ remains the international means of exchange all that needs to be done is to create a demand for it, and to cause widespread destruction is a fine way to accomplish that, plus of course the rich must spend and consume like there's no tomorrow whilst keeping the poor starved of cash. Then there will always be enough demand [for money] and no oversupply of it for goods, just ever increasing asset values and poverty. A sort of sunlit version of hell.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 13, 2020, 11:28:22 AM
No, the Fed Did Not Just Give Stock Traders $1.5 Trillion
Quote
...The Fed is not jumping in to save the Dow Jones. It is not forking over money so traders can buy shares in Amazon. Rather, it’s using its short-term lending powers to prevent the all-important Treasury market from breaking down and creating another financial crisis.

Every single day, the world’s financial institutions fund themselves using transactions that use U.S. government debt as collateral. These are known as repurchase agreements, or repo deals. One party, like a bank or hedge fund, sells another some securities, usually Treasuries, but agrees to buy them back shortly thereafter at a small markup. It’s effectively a short-term loan with interest. Along with banks, hedge funds, and money market funds, the Fed also participates in the repo market to manage interest rates.

The key thing to realize is that if the repo market seizes up for some reason, much of the financial system ceases to function, since banks and others can’t get their daily funding. The 2008 financial crisis has sometimes been described as a “run on the repo market.”

If you want to picture it all, imagine a pawn shop, but instead of some guy handing over his Fender for a wad of cash, it’s Jamie Dimon walking in with his arms full of Treasuries and a contract that says he’ll buy them all back a day later. Sometimes, the pawnshop owner is Jerome Powell. And if the pawnshop shuts down, then everything goes to hell because Mr. Dimon can’t pay his bills. That’s the repo market, in a nutshell. …
https://slate.com/business/2020/03/federal-reserve-bond-market-wall-street-trillion.html

BUT, everything is far from wonderful.
From December 20219:

The Fed seems to have halted a potential crisis in the overnight lending market — for now
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/30/the-fed-seems-to-have-halted-a-potential-crisis-in-the-repo-market.html

From October 2019:
Opinion: The Federal Reserve is in stealth intervention mode
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/03BDDD9A-F676-11E9-8550-0570F53F9A58
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: nanning on March 13, 2020, 02:50:29 PM
Thank you johnm33 for your posts #124 and #127. Beautiful.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 13, 2020, 07:25:07 PM
Here’s what would happen if coronavirus forces the NYSE to close its trading floor
Quote
... Like many organizations, the NYSE has also arranged for employees not working on the floor to work from home.

Cunningham said the NYSE was prepared for the possibility that someone at the exchange or who works on the floor may contract coronavirus:  “If there is an outbreak, we can clean the floor and reopen pretty quickly as well, so that’s something we’re not planning to close the floor at this time, but as you mentioned, we could trade fully electronically.”

The trading floor consists of a mix of floor brokers, who execute orders on behalf of their clients, and designated market makers (DMMs), who are authorized to commit their own capital to provide liquidity and maintain fair and orderly markets. 

In the event the floor physically closed, those DMMs will be able to participate in trading activity remotely, including opening and closing auctions. If they cannot participate in any auction for any particular security, the NYSE itself would open the security.  The DMMs would continue to retain their obligations to provide quotes and maintain fair and orderly markets.


The CME, which runs the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the largest futures exchange, announced Wednesday night it was closing its futures trading floor as a precaution. This was not a difficult decision:  There are only 54 traders left on the physical floor, according to CME CEO Terry Duffy, and they account for a fraction of the trading volume. CME will continue to trade electronically.

Longer-term, this revives the debate about the value of trading floors in an era of electronic trading. The message is still fairly consistent from the NYSE: DMMs and floor brokers add liquidity and are considered an important differentiator for the NYSE model. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/heres-what-would-happen-if-coronavirus-forced-the-nyse-to-close-its-trading-floor.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 13, 2020, 09:24:04 PM
Think today’s Dow is good news?
2019 World Almanac page 71
Greatest percent gains were in order
3/15/1933
10/6/1931
10/30/1929
9/21/1932
10/13/2008
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 14, 2020, 09:11:43 AM
(https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/2010_and_2020_2x.png)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 15, 2020, 10:44:06 AM
This is really epic (meaning that on a stupidity scale of 1 to 100, at least 200):

Trump's happy tweet:

BIGGEST STOCK MARKET RISE IN HISTORY YESTERDAY!

This guy is an absolute idiot, I am always amazed at the things he says
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 15, 2020, 07:19:57 PM
This is almost as good:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-great-time-to-go-out-california-republican-devin-nunes-talks-about-life-amid-the-coronavirus-pandemic-2020-03-15?mod=mw_latestnews

Republican Congressman says:
"If you’re healthy, you and your family, it’s a great time to just go out and go to a local restaurant, likely you can get in easily. ... [G]o to your local pub."
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 16, 2020, 01:11:53 AM
So rate cuts are not working . Hardly surprising when it is virus testing that is needed . b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 16, 2020, 01:26:42 AM
Dow futures down 1041 points.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2020, 01:49:03 AM
Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero as part of wide-ranging emergency intervention
The Washington Post
The Fed took dramatic steps not seen since the 2008 financial crisis to bolster the U.S. economy in the face of coronavirus.
Quote

The Federal Reserve announced on Sunday it would drop interest rates to zero and buy at least $700 billion in government and mortgage-related bonds as part of a wide-ranging emergency action to protect the economy from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The moves, the most dramatic by the U.S. central bank since the 2008 financial crisis, are aimed at keeping financial markets stable and borrowing costs as low as possible as businesses around the country shutter and the U.S. economy hurtles toward recession.

The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome H. Powell, effectively cut its benchmark by a full percentage-point to zero. The benchmark U.S. interest rate is now in a range of 0 to 0.25 percent, down from a range of 1 to 1.25 percent.

The Fed also announced it is restarting the crisis-era program of bond purchases known as “quantitative easing,” where the central bank buys hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds to further push down rates and keep markets flowing freely. To help Main Street, the Fed is also giving more generous loans to banks around the country so they can turn around and loan to small businesses and families in need of a lifeline.

“Economic policy experts must do what we can to ease hardships caused by the disruption," Powell said in a conference call Sunday evening. He said the coronavirus outbreak “will have a significant effect on economic activity in the near term.”
https://apple.news/AJ3LQlfbvR92s-tX46Oqvvw

—-
Fed slashes key interest rates to 0% and announces $700 billion QE program, dollar swap to address coronavirus panic
Published: March 15, 2020 at 5:28 p.m. ET
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-slashes-key-interest-rates-to-0-and-announces-700-billion-qe-program-dollar-swap-to-address-coronavirus-panic-2020-03-15
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 16, 2020, 01:52:14 AM
The Plumbing Behind World's Financial Markets is Creaking. Loudly
https://www.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2120NJ

Bankers, companies and individual investors are dashing to stock up on cash and other assets considered safe in a downturn to ride out the chaos. This sudden flight to safety is causing havoc in markets for bonds, currency and loans to a degree that hasn’t been seen since the financial crisis of a dozen years ago.

The key concern now, as in 2008, is liquidity: the ready availability of cash and other easily traded financial instruments - and of buyers and sellers who feel secure enough to do deals.

Investors are having trouble buying and selling U.S. Treasuries, considered the safest of all assets. It's a highly unusual occurrence for one of the world's most readily tradable financial instruments. Funding in U.S. dollars, the world's most traded currency, is getting harder to obtain outside the United States.

The cost of funding for money that companies use to make payrolls and other essential short-term needs is rising for weaker-rated firms in the United States. The premium investors pay to buy insurance on junk bonds is increasing. Banks are charging each other more for overnight loans, and companies are drawing down their lines of credit, in case they dry up later.

Taken together, warn some bankers, regulators and investors, these red flags are starting to paint a troubling picture for markets and the global economy: If banks, companies and consumers panic, they can set off a chain of retrenchment that spirals into a bigger funding crunch - and ultimately a deep recession.

Francesco Papadia, who oversaw the European Central Bank's market operations during the region's debt crisis a decade ago, said his biggest fear is that the "illiquidity of markets, generated by extreme uncertainty and panic reaction" could "lead to markets freezing, which is an economic life-threatening event."

"It does not seem to me we are there already, but we could get there quickly," Papadia said.

Investors and regulators have been alarmed, in particular, by liquidity problems in the $17 trillion U.S. Treasuries market.

There are several signs that something is off. Interest rates, or yields, on Treasuries and other bonds move in inverse relation to their prices: If prices fall, the yields rise. Changes are measured in basis points, or hundredths of a percent.

Typically, yields move a few basis points a day. Now, large and unusually quick swings in yields are making it hard for investors to execute orders. Traders said dealers on Wednesday and Thursday significantly widened the spread in price at which they were willing to buy and sell Treasury bonds - a sign of reduced liquidity.

Another alarming signal is the premium non-U.S. borrowers are willing to pay to access dollars, a widely watched gauge of a potential cash crunch. The three-month euro-dollar EURCBS3M=ICAP and dollar-yen JPYCBS3M=ICAP swap spreads surged to their widest since 2017, before dropping on Friday after central banks pumped in more cash.

A measure of the health of the banking system is flashing yellow. The Libor-OIS spread USDL-O0X3=R, which indicates the risk banks are attaching to lending money to one another, has jumped. The spread is now 76 basis points, up from about 13 basis point on Feb. 21, before the coronavirus crunch began in the West. In 2008, it peaked at around 365 basis points.

... An official at a major central bank said the situation is “pretty bad, as all stars are aligned in a negative way.”"Cracks will start to emerge soon,” the official said, “but whether they will develop into something systemic is still hard to say.”
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2020, 02:02:31 AM
Dow futures down 1041 points.

US stock futures hit 'limit down' after Fed cuts interest rate to zero
Quote
New York (CNN Business)Investors were unassuaged by news that the Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates to zero. US stock futures dropped 5% Sunday evening, hitting the "limit down," meaning they can't fall any further.

Dow (INDU) futures plummeted and were last down 1,041 points, or about 4.5%. S&P 500 (SPX) futures were down about 4.8% , while Nasdaq (COMP) futures were down 4.5%.

Last week all three indexes fell into a bear market, declining more than 20% from their recent peak.
The sharp decline in futures came after the Federal Reserve announced an emergency rate cut, and said it would purchase another $700 billion worth of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, in a bid to support the economy during the coronavirus pandemic.

The swifter-than-expected rate cut is designed to prevent the kind of credit crunch and financial market disruptions that occurred the last time the Fed had to cut rates all the way to the bottom.

"I don't think [the Fed] would have done this unless they felt the financial markets were at significant risk of freezing up tomorrow. They're very concerned the financial markets won't work. So I don't know how the markets take solace in this." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, told CNN Business.

The Fed last cut rates to zero during the global financial crisis just over a decade ago.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/investing/stock-futures-global/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 16, 2020, 02:14:14 AM
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9tUTS8XkAEnWe2.jpg:large)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2020, 02:42:00 AM
.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: NevB on March 16, 2020, 01:07:52 PM
Found a better one and changed the image, Bluice.

Looks like this is unprecedented.

Do you have a source?
 
I would like to share this with a friend and it would be better if it was sourced.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 16, 2020, 02:38:05 PM
NevB, i got that from Reddit. IIRC it was at r/economics. Can't find it ATM. :-/
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 16, 2020, 03:09:04 PM
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/investing/stock-futures-global/index.html
Quote
New York (CNN Business)US stocks opened sharply lower on Monday as investors grew concerned that the emergency policy measures by global central banks over the weekend meant the economy is in much worse shape than previously believed.
Instead of soothing the markets, another emergency interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve had the opposite effect.
The S&P 500 opened down 8.1%. The index hit a circuit breaker after falling more than 7%. Trading is now halted for 15 minutes.
The Dow opened 9.7%, or 2,250 points, lower and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6.1%.

Global stock markets also plunged Monday as data showed the outbreak has caused an unprecedented economic collapse in China.
Markets were battered across Asia, with Australia's benchmark index crashing nearly 10% in its worst day on record. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 (UKX) fell 8%, while France's CAC 40 (CAC40) plunged over 10% and Germany's DAX (DAX) dropped roughly 9%.
...
[emphasis added]

"Coming to an economy near you!"  :-\ :'(
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2020, 04:05:35 PM
Stock- market futures sink after emergency Fed rate cut — ‘if this doesn’t work, what will?’
Quote
U.S. stock-index futures fell sharply Sunday night following the Federal Reserve’s emergency decision to slash interest rates nearly to zero and buy $700 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities in an effort to quell financial market turmoil sparked by the global coronavirus pandemic.

“The Fed has thrown most its weight behind this move, offering almost everything it has to give, which raises the inevitable question — if this doesn’t work, what will?” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “The immediate negative reaction suggests markets are already worrying about that, and governments likely need to accelerate their fiscal action.”

Some observers argued that while the Fed’s moves were justified, the timing of the announcement ahead of the open of Asian markets late Sunday and in lieu of a policy meeting that had been sent for this week appeared desperate.

“When you have folks in power acting in a very panicky way, doing off-scheduled meetings and throwing everything they can at the situation, that doesn’t send a very reassuring signal to the general population.”
said Max Gokhman, head of asset allocation at Pacific Life Fund Advisors, in an interview. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sinks-after-emergency-fed-rate-cut-if-this-doesnt-work-what-will-2020-03-15
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 16, 2020, 05:22:35 PM
This is going to be an extremely deep, major recession. Some firms will go bankrupt. But there is also going to be a huge fiscal stimulus everywhere. 2021 will see very strong growth, 2022 as well.

If you buy stocks now you might regret it in a week or a month but will likely be very happy with your decision in 2 or 3 years. This is 2008/9 all over again. Buying after Lehman seemed stupid for a while but in retrospect it was a great decision.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 16, 2020, 05:24:43 PM
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

... or a virus, for that matter.

The only question, how low will it go?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 16, 2020, 08:26:58 PM
"the time to buy is when there's blood in the streets."

... or a virus, for that matter.

The only question, how low will it go?
After Sunday's concerted massive intervention by Central Banks, at 3 pm EDT on Monday 16 March we see.......

WTI crude down $ 2.64 at $ 29
S&P 500 down 26% in one month

see attached for more financial horror.


Bloomberg Headlines from the Commodities page https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities

2 HOURS AGO Gold Falls Again After the Metal’s Worst Week in Four Decades

9:50 AM  Oil Slumps to Lowest Since 2016 as Demand Collapse Triggers Rout

2:13 AM  China’s Economy Suffers Historic Slump Due to Virus Shutdown

3/15/2020 Young Climate Activists Change Tactics as Virus Spreads

3/15/2020 Global Oil Use Heads for Record Annual Drop as Virus Spreads

The markets think the economic damage will be more than trivial ?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2020, 08:47:22 PM
Bridgewater's Dalio says Fed has done all it can, targeted fiscal stimulus is needed
Quote
Dalio said the Fed has done all it can do as of now, and the next stage would be a coordinated policy with the government where the central bank buys assets used to fund deficits. Zero rates do not come without risks, and he has been worried the Fed would return to a zero target on the fed funds rate.

"Long-term interest rates hitting the hard 0% floor means that virtually all asset classes go down because the positive effects of interest rates falling won't exist (at least not much). Hitting this 0% floor also means that virtually all the reserve country central banks' interest rate stimulation tools (including cutting rates and yield curve guidance) won't work," Dalio wrote. "The printing of money and buying of debt assets that central banks are now allowed to buy almost certainly won't work much (because bonds can't be pushed much higher and they are also less likely to be sold to buy other assets of entities that are in financial trouble)." ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/bridgewaters-dalio-says-fed-has-done-all-it-can-targeted-fiscal-stimulus-needed.html

But even Dalio didn’t know how to invest around COVID-19.  His largest hedge fund lost 20%:
‘We didn’t know how to navigate the virus and chose not to because we didn’t think we had an edge in trading it. So, we stayed in our positions and in retrospect we should have cut all risk.’
[Bridgewater's Dalio,] Head of world’s largest hedge fund says his firm ‘didn’t know how to navigate coronavirus’ stock selloff and should have ‘cut all risk’ but failed to react
Published: March 15, 2020 at 5:00 p.m. ET
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/head-of-worlds-largest-hedge-fund-says-his-firm-didnt-know-how-to-navigate-coronavirus-stock-selloff-and-should-have-cut-all-risk-but-failed-to-react-2020-03-15
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 16, 2020, 08:58:10 PM
things unfolding as expected .. Dow down 3000 and falling . b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 16, 2020, 11:07:54 PM
The Covid-19 Dominoes Fall: The World Is Insolvent
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/03/the-covid-19-dominoes-fall-world-is.html
Quote
Once the market value of global assets falls by $100 trillion, the world is insolvent.
Everyone expecting the financial markets to magically return to January 2020 levels once the pandemic dies down is delusional. All the dominoes of crashing market valuations, crashing incomes, crashing profits and soaring defaults will take down all the fantasy-based valuations of bubblicious assets: stocks, bonds, real estate, bat guano, you name it. (Actually, bat guano will be the keeper of all the asset classes listed.)
The global financial system has already lost $100 trillion in market value, and therefore it's already insolvent. The only question remaining is how insolvent?
Here's a hint: companies whose shares were recently worth $500 or $300 will be worth $10 or $20 when this is over. Bonds that were supposedly "safe" will lose 50% of their market value. Real estate will be lucky to retain 40% of its current value. And so on.
As net worth crashes below zero, debts remain. The loans must still be serviced or paid off, and if the borrowers default, then the losses must be absorbed by the lenders or taxpayers, if we get a repeat of 2008 and the insolvent taxpayers are forced to bail out the insolvent financial elites.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 17, 2020, 04:25:57 PM
More than half of American jobs are at risk because of coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/economy/job-losses-coronavirus/index.html

——-
AMAZON
Quote
We are opening 100,000 new full and part-time positions across the U.S. in our fulfillment centers and delivery network to meet the surge in demand from people relying on Amazon’s service during this stressful time, particularly those most vulnerable to being out in public. We also know many people have been economically impacted as jobs in areas like hospitality, restaurants, and travel are lost or furloughed as part of this crisis. We want those people to know we welcome them on our teams until things return to normal and their past employer is able to bring them back. In addition to the additional 100,000 new roles we’re creating, we want to recognize our employees who are playing an essential role for people at a time when many of the services that might normally be there to support them are closed. In the U.S., we will be adding an additional $2 USD per hour worked through April from our current rate of $15/hour or more, depending on the region, £2 per hour in the UK, and approximately €2 per hour in many EU countries. This commitment to increased pay through the end of April represents an investment of over $350 million in increased compensation for hourly employees across the U.S., Europe, and Canada.
https://blog.aboutamazon.com/company-news/amazons-actions-to-help-employees-communities-and-customers-affected-by-covid-19

—-
“Since COVID-19 likely did not start having broad economic impacts until about the end of February, we believe 1Q20 GDP growth will remain positive at about 1% but below original expectations of 2% or higher. If this turns out to be the case, it would mean two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth [the standard definition of a recession] would not begin until the beginning of April and run through late September, providing some time for COVID-19 infection and fatality rates to possibly mitigate during the second half of the year. So for this reason alone, at least the technical definition of a recession is not a foregone conclusion. However, if first quarter GDP dips negative, we will assuredly have consecutive quarters of economic contraction in 1Q and 2Q. We realize much of this is definitional hair splitting; the important point being that we are looking at a severe decline in economic activity over the next three-to-six months, sending the economy into negative growth for that time frame.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: deep octopus on March 17, 2020, 06:55:38 PM
Layoffs are beginning in earnest in the US.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/17/stocks-markets-live-updates-coronavirus/#link-435GMI3MI5C7NL3OY7VYSJ35O4

“Marriott International, the world’s largest hotel brand, has begun furloughs affecting tens of thousands of employees as a global pandemic wears on large segments of the economy.“

 A coffee chain local to the Washington, DC area has laid off 90 percent of its employees:

“Also on Tuesday, Washington, D.C.-based Compass Coffee, laid off 180 of its 200 employees, according to local reporter Jason Shevrin. A company announcement shared online said that the company laid off ‘the vast majority of our baristas’ so they are eligible for unemployment benefits. Compass Coffee did not immediately respond to a request for comment.“
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 17, 2020, 08:15:06 PM
Almost every country is going to face a massive budget deficit. And countries like the US already have a trillion deficit in good times.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 18, 2020, 01:12:41 PM
21,237.38 +1,048.86 (up 5.20%). Mar 17, 5:10 PM EDT

"U.S. equity futures hit "limit down" levels after falling 5% in early Asia trading, while index ETFs suggest 6.5% opening bell declines for the Dow ahead of housing starts data at 8:30 am Eastern time."

Man, that spinning top sure does wobble before it topples over.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 18, 2020, 01:20:23 PM
Almost every country is going to face a massive budget deficit. And countries like the US already have a trillion deficit in good times.

Fiscal deficits don't matter. Central banks will finance it. MMT rulez
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 18, 2020, 05:07:51 PM
Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
19,981.78
 :o
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 18, 2020, 06:09:35 PM
Just now (1:06 pm US Eastern Time).
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 18, 2020, 06:30:05 PM
Dow Jones Industrial Average
INDEXDJX: .DJI
19,306.02 −1,931.36 (9.09%)
18 Mar, 1:28 pm GMT-4 ·

Slow motion train Crash.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 18, 2020, 06:50:06 PM
Stocks Halt After 7% Drop in S&P 500; Oil and Bonds Drop in Sync
The Wall Street Journal
Quote
U.S. Markets
- Stocks Halt After 7% Drop in S&P 500; Oil and Bonds Drop in Sync
- Dow falls more than 1,600 points; oil hits lowest level in more than 18 years amid rising anxiety
- Stocks, bonds and commodities fell Wednesday in a simultaneous selloff that suggests investors are seeking to raise cash quickly to cope with the economic disruption sparked by the coronavirus pandemic.

The S&P 500 dropped 7% in midday trading, triggering a circuit breaker that halted trading in U.S. stocks for 15 minutes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1,661 points, or 7.8%, to 19577, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 6.3%.
All three indexes are down about 30% from their mid-February highs.
Oil, meanwhile, plunged 15% to its lowest level in more than 18 years.

Investors are even shunning assets that are normally considered the safest, including long-term government bonds and gold. That rarely happens when riskier assets like stocks are also falling.

Yields on government bonds in most major economies including the U.S., Japan and across Europe rose sharply Wednesday, while investors sheltered in the shortest-term government debt and cash.


The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose to 1.069% from 0.994% Tuesday as bond prices tumbled. The yield on the one-month U.S. bill briefly turned negative for the first time since 2015. Gold fell about 1%.

The selling of government debt shows the market mentality has completely flipped, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.
“Now that they’ve gotten around to U.S. Treasurys, that tells you that legitimately nothing is safe,” he said. “There’s no place to hide other than cash.”


The ramifications of the pandemic are spiraling quickly. The number of infections globally crossed 200,000, more than doubling in just two weeks. Governments are asking citizens abroad to come home and those already at home to stay there.

“It’s happening so fast, it’s almost too much to grasp at this point,” said Frank Cappelleri, the executive director at Instinet. “It’s at the point where if you check the futures at nighttime and you’re not limit down, it’s a relief.”

That has thrown the market’s “risk on” attitude into sharp reverse. A month ago, stocks were hitting new records daily. A week ago, investors were debating whether the pandemic would cause a recession. Now, the question is whether the economy will be thrown into its worst recession in decades.

“When even silver and gold are getting crushed, that’s a panicked drawing of liquidity,” said Rob Arnott, founder of California-based investment firm Research Affiliates. “In the U.S., you can’t find toilet paper anywhere: This is the capital markets equivalent of that.”

The pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 4.2%, hitting its lowest level since December 2012. Most major Asian markets closed lower, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index falling 4.2%.
...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-futures-fall-asian-markets-mixed-11584498324
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 18, 2020, 09:08:13 PM
Dow down 1338 or 6.3%
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 18, 2020, 09:42:58 PM
USD / CAD 1.45
Seems like the rush to US dollars is leaving everything else swamped in its wake.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 18, 2020, 09:46:45 PM
USD / CAD 1.45
Seems like the rush to US dollars is leaving everything else swamped in its wake.
Terry

Especially petrocountries! (the rouble and the CAD are on the same road to hell :)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 18, 2020, 10:01:52 PM
The Dow has now dropped below where it was on the day of Trump’s inauguration in 2017.

Therefore, all of the stock market gains that Trump has repeatedly boasted about have now been wiped out.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETZ8eY6XgAE_VPJ.jpg)

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1240315639853703170

------------------------------------

Trading was temporarily halted at the New York Stock Exchange, with the Dow currently down more than 1,800 points.

This marks the fourth time in two weeks that trading has been halted because of steep losses linked to investors’ fears about the coronavirus crisis.

----------------------------------

The Detroit Three -- Ford, GM and Fiat Chrysler -- have agreed to temporarily close all US plants to protect workers against coronavirus.

---------------------------------

JPMorgan is now predicting the second quarter of this year could see the US economy slump by as much as 14% because of the coronavirus crisis.

Unemployment rate goes to 6.25% midyear, 5.25% in Dec.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyCNBC/status/1240340956081262593

--------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Aporia_filia on March 18, 2020, 10:38:29 PM
Naomi klein view.
Coronavirus capitalism - and how to beat it

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/16/coronavirus-capitalism/
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 18, 2020, 11:43:37 PM
^^
Thanks!


It's nice to hear encouraging words from one of Canada's brightest young philosophers.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 19, 2020, 08:13:05 AM
Those with pounds in their pockets are starting to see how well a 'little britain' does in a challenging world . As I wrote way back in the early daze of Brexit we see our currency collapse . The obvious outcome , but not to the idiots now in charge of the country .
  Incompetence rules . Sadly everyone is going to pay the price , not just those that voted for them . b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2020, 03:08:04 PM
China has turned a corner. 
Quote
Jonathan Ferro (@FerroTV) 3/17/20, 6:28 PM
China getting back to work
FedEx says...
-Demand rebounded more than expected
-65-70% of small business operating again
-90-95% of large manufacturers operating
https://twitter.com/ferrotv/status/1240042395598807040


From Feb. 28, 2020
China gets back to work — sort of — as number of new COVID-19 cases wanes
Quote
Over 43% of small and midsize enterprises in China’s manufacturing sector had resumed production as of Wednesday, Zhang Kejian, deputy minister of industry and information technology, told state media. This is crucial for these smaller firms, as many said in a recent survey that they could survive for only one to two months on their savings.

Toyota Motor Corp. TM, +1.69% has restarted production to some degree at all its China plants, the company said Tuesday. And that’s good, because the Chinese people are driving again, according to measurements of traffic congestion and the Baidu Migration Index, which showed that more than 60% of people have returned to their workplace areas in China’s 100 biggest cities. The government has even chartered a number of planes to carry returning workers, the state outlet CCTV reported. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-gets-back-to-work-sort-of-as-number-of-new-covid-19-cases-wanes-2020-02-28
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Why the COVID-19 Financial Crisis Is Like No Other
Quote
Economies across the world are already experiencing a significant contraction in economic activity that will likely last through the first half of the year. JP Morgan economists predicted that the U.S. economy would shrink by 2% in the first quarter and as much as 10% in the second quarter, while the economy of the 19 nations using the euro would contract by 1.7% in the first quarter and 3.3% in the second. Economic activity will start to expand again in the second half of the year, they said—even sooner in China, which they say will see growth in the second quarter of 2020 as life there starts to normalize. ...
https://time.com/5805526/coronavirus-economy-layoffs/
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2020, 09:42:34 PM
How long will things be bad?  Nobody knows.

Recovery could be just months away!
The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say
If government action can stop another financial crisis, a sharp recovery could ensue
Quote
Since mid-February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +1.01%, the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.95% and the Nasdaq Composite index COMP, +2.99% have all declined nearly 30%, marking the fastest onset of a bear market in history. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-may-bottom-long-before-the-coronavirus-epidemic-peaks-analysts-say-2020-03-19

—-
Recovery could take five years!

Stocks will face ‘long road’ back to the highs when bear market bottoms, says analyst who called 2018 swoon
Could take five years for S&P 500 to move back above 3,000: Stifel’s Bannister
Quote
Don’t bank on a V-shaped rebound once the stock market’s coronavirus-driven plunge finally hits bottom, according to a Wall Street analyst who called the market’s late-2018 swoon.
“Our S&P 500 model points to a long road back to a price over 3,000 for the S&P 500, probably due to major stress on growth versus value (amid populist reflationary policy),” wrote Barry Bannister, head of institutional equity strategy at Stifel, in a Tuesday note. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-will-face-long-road-back-to-the-highs-when-bear-market-bottoms-says-analyst-who-called-2018-swoon-2020-03-17


=======
Why are bonds failing to act like a safe-haven as stocks sell off ?
Quote
Some economists have suggested bond traders could be waking up to the fact that the U.S. government’s fiscal deficits will start to finally matter, and that the broader investment community will struggle to take down the U.S.’s yawning debts.

According to that logic, the wave of debt supply from the fiscal stimulus packages discussed by U.S. policymakers this week could overwhelm investors and push values for government bonds lower, and yields higher.

“Fed officials have often worried about increased government spending on the retiring, baby boom workers, and now it looks like the debt deluge that sends bond yields soaring could come years before it was expected,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG.

But market participants said the real reason driving rates higher was more mundane and frightening — investors needed to raise cash to cover their losses. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-are-bonds-failing-to-act-like-a-safe-haven-as-stocks-sell-off-2020-03-18
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2020, 02:36:21 PM
The upcoming job losses will be unlike anything the US has ever seen [in 40 years]
Quote
When the damage the coronavirus inflicts on the U.S. jobs market becomes clearer, it could be unlike anything the country has ever seen.

Judging by numerous forecasts from economists, the avalanche of furloughs will easily break the record for most in a single month.

Upcoming weekly jobless claims will shatter the standards set even during the worst points of the financial crisis and the early-1980s recession, with Bank of America forecasting a total of 3 million when the number is released Thursday. Those figures are expected to be so bad, in fact, that the Trump administration, according to several media reports, has asked state officials to delay releasing precise counts.

While the headline unemployment rate is highly unlikely to approach the 24.9% during the Great Depression, it very well could be the highest in almost 40 years, something unthinkable for a jobs market that had been on fire as recently as February.

Job losses will be counted not in the thousands or even hundreds of thousands, but rather in the millions. Although it's uncertain whether the total count from this recession ends up breaking previous records, it's a good bet that April's number will outpace by a large margin any single month in U.S. history for a drop in nonfarm payrolls.

5 million in April alone?
The worst month for job losses during the financial crisis was 800,00 in March 2009.
Some forecasts see April quintupling that or worse. Forecasts for that month range from 500,000 to 5 million. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-upcoming-job-losses-will-be-unlike-anything-the-us-has-ever-seen.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 20, 2020, 02:44:01 PM
Coronavirus could spark another Great Depression, former Trump adviser warns
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/business/great-depression-coronavirus-kevin-hassett/index.html
Quote
"We're going to have to either have a Great Depression, or figure out a way to send people back to work even though that's risky," Hassett told CNN's Poppy Harlow. "Because at some point, we can't not have an economy, right?"
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 20, 2020, 02:49:32 PM
“This feels much worse than 2008”: Obama’s chief economist on coronavirus’s economic threat
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/13/21177850/coronavirus-covid-19-recession-stock-market-economy-jobs-stimulus
Quote
I’ve spoken with Furman often over the years, and to put it bluntly, I’ve never heard him as alarmed as on Thursday. He believes the coronavirus could do more damage to the economy than the financial crisis did, and that policymakers aren’t even close to designing a large enough response. In addition, the virus is moving much faster than the financial crisis did, and the government officials who will need to respond to it are in danger of being infected by it.

A transcript of our conversation, lightly edited for length and clarity, follows.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on March 20, 2020, 03:02:23 PM
Or instead of BS Wall Street shit you can hire people to:

Fix US roads (smooth rides equals less fuel use, less potholes equals less damage thus less replacement parts).

Build or maintain windmills and solar plants.

Build local grids.

Build coastal defences that help (so check effects on whole coast etc)

Improve housing (Isolation etc)

Remove all the old ineffecient ACs that eat energy and are almost always ran on a too high level because well that is the Murican way...or something like that. So build new efficient ones and install them everywhere. Just putting a max limit on thier output can save tons of energy.

So there are ample opportunities after decades of neglect.
Even better the USA could pay for it by just using the money squandered at the Pentagon. (lets start at a third of the budget).

Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 20, 2020, 03:06:09 PM
These would be the right things to do right now.

Instead the orange fascist and conservatives all over the world are taking that money to bail out FF companies and airlines.

Stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid stupid!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2020, 05:09:11 PM
”The market for munis this week has all but collapsed, with few willing to step in and buy the government debt in the uncertainty of the current climate.”
The Federal Reserve is expanding its asset purchases to include municipal bonds
Quote
The program will work through the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility announced earlier this week and offers an expansion of what had been a financial crisis-era program authorizing purchases of other assets. Expanding into munis is something that did not happen during the crisis. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/the-federal-reserve-is-expanding-its-asset-purchases-to-include-municipal-bonds.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 20, 2020, 06:47:09 PM
Goldman Sees Unprecedented Stop In Economic Activity, With 2nd Quarter GDP Contracting 24%
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/goldman-sees-an-unprecedented-stop-of-economic-activity-with-2nd-quarter-gdp-contracting-by-24percent.html

Goldman Sachs economists forecast an unprecedented 24% decline in second-quarter gross domestic product, following a 6% decline in the first quarter, based on the economy’s sudden and historic shutdown as the country responds to the coronavirus pandemic.

The economists then expect a bounce-back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter, but unemployment will surge to 9%. They also expect GDP to contract by 3.8% for the full year on an annual average basis, and 3.1% on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2020, 06:51:04 PM
Dutch government to borrow extra 45-65 billion euros in next 3 months
Quote
The Dutch government expects its borrowing needs in the coming three months will be 45-65 billion euros ($48-$70 billion) more than expected to fund the cost of its response to the coronavirus outbreak, the country’s finance minister said in a letter to parliament.

The Dutch national debt was 395 billion euros as of the end of the third quarter, according to data from the country’s statistics office, approximately 49% of gross domestic product (GDP).*
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-netherlands-borrowing/update-1-dutch-government-to-borrow-extra-45-65-billion-euros-in-next-3-months-idUSL8N2BD72H
*Fun fact:  US federal debt was 106.9% of GDP in 2019.


==== U.S.:
National Restaurant Association forecasts $225 billion loss, up to 7 million jobs lost due to coronavirus
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/national-restaurant-association-forecasts-225-billion-loss-up-to-7-million-jobs-lost-due-to-coronavirus-2020-03-20

———
Op-Ed: As coronavirus cripples the US economy, lawmakers must fix another looming problem
There is another group of Americans who find themselves in increasingly perilous circumstances and in need of relief – the millions of retirees and workers whose multiemployer pension plans are running out of money.
Quote
The Central States Pension Fund, one of the largest multiemployer pension plans, is expected to go insolvent in just five years. Not only would this directly harm hundreds of thousands of workers and retirees, with compounding effects on the children, spouses, and parents they support, it would also result in a crippling domino effect on the U.S. economy. Economists estimate the failure of Central States will result in more than a $5 billion GDP shortfall, a loss of more than $1 billion in federal tax revenue, and 55,000 fewer jobs.

 During the last fiscal year alone, six multiemployer plans were terminated, and eight others requested financial assistance from the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), the federal backstop for plans that can no longer cover promised benefits. For a time, the PBGC was able to step in and help pay retirees' benefits when plans like these were in trouble.

But now, the PBGC is also projected to become insolvent in five years, making their "guaranty" not much better than a band-aid solution. When the PBGC runs out of money, retirees' benefits will be cut by an average of more than 94 percent. …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/op-ed-lawmakers-must-fix-another-looming-economic-problem.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: wili on March 20, 2020, 08:31:34 PM
vox quoted from cnbc: "...economists then expect a bounce-back of 12% in the third quarter and 10% in the fourth quarter..."

Based on what, one wonders...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 20, 2020, 08:34:43 PM
Based on what, one wonders...

Wishful thinking?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 20, 2020, 09:04:03 PM
(https://www.chinalawblog.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/110/2018/09/DEAD-CAT-BOUNCE-44712975426.jpeg)

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/qdFg0lcANcEnexswZK4zLJULZ3P_ouWHWqzFwMKBgQGjUrw70MAsUxU8CcW0r-xJKImuH_PzfJhugdqbMDE0ErqOx8p3-CK959tW6yFM5G50S-SJcUR1RiOxKcyNGw3eqmOZDep0pv-R)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 20, 2020, 09:06:29 PM
Dow down 913 or 4.55%.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2020, 01:53:35 AM
”Someone in Granville called this ‘the Great Hiatus’. I like that. Let’s go with it.”

https://twitter.com/eruptionsblog/status/1241082743582273536
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: nanning on March 21, 2020, 05:08:34 AM
Your cat-bounce cartoon made me laugh out loud vox. Brilliant.
Thanks again for all your creative cartoon selections and unrelentless high quality COVID-19 posting.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 21, 2020, 06:39:59 AM
The Global Recession is coming here, but faced with death and life altering disease it's small potatoes until we've broken the back of CV19.


Slowing the onset of CV19 is the only chance we have to come through this without being reduced to animals fighting for our next meal, our last breath. The kids dancing on the beach may return home and inherit their family wealth years earlier than expected. - if they survive until the paperwork has gone through.


Money spent on the education of kids who care so little for their own, or the lives of their families would have been better spent on blow and hookers. Change your will before their "vacation" is over.


Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on March 21, 2020, 07:20:20 AM
Out on  a limb.
Griff expect the Dow and other metrics to settle on 50% of their highs .
We still have a while to fall yet.
Why the fuck don't they get it ?
This pandemic  a global catastrophe that will play out over the coming years not months.

Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 21, 2020, 02:06:01 PM
You know, I just realize that, for the rest of the Century we will probably refer to the Teens as “The Good Old Days”.
There was tv series where the universe was “split” by a physics experiment around 1990, and the two histories diverged from there...watched it last year on Amazon Prime. One of the historic differences of the other world was that they had a plague like this one. A plot point was that they think we might have introduced the virus to them, like the conspiracy theories in America and China of the Coronavirus. They depicted the cultural changes resulting from this nicely. Drat, I forget the title...anyone else remember it?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 21, 2020, 03:36:22 PM

This pandemic  a global catastrophe that will play out over the coming years not months.
This is going to cause a huge recession, many will go bankrupt, big numbers of unemployed, no question about that. But will definitely not take years. You can stop the world for 2 months but not 9. If we can't get anywhere by summer, then the economic pain will be too much to bear and they will just let it rampage thru the population, aka herd immunity. Or we will get a vaccine by autumn. Either way, 2021 is going to see an economic rebound. Besides there is going to be so much fiscal stimulus that noone has ever seen since WW2
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 21, 2020, 03:46:10 PM
It think much will depend on the fact , will it become endemic or not. And will it mutate. We know it already mutated. If it becomes endemic, than we are not going to see cruise ships full with old people anymore. For that the risk for them will become big. If it becomes endemic it can change the world as we know it. Than very normal things will become a big risk for many people. So they will stay home more.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 21, 2020, 04:06:15 PM
El Cid
The amount of stimulus needed to beat what is happening, with the kind of fiscal shenanigans that we have enjoyed the past decade, could cause hyperinflation.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 21, 2020, 04:57:51 PM
There has been a rush to the safety of the American Dollar. This weekend my American Bucks are worth 1.43 Canadian Loonies.


A windfall for those of us living in Canada on American currency. 8)
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2020, 06:37:01 PM
March 14, 2020
After the most volatile week on Wall Street since the 2008 financial crisis as the coronavirus epidemic began to shut down swaths of the U.S. economy, the health of the U.S. stock and bond markets may now depend on how corporate debt fares in the coming months.
Fed should request Congress to allow the Fed to buy corporate bonds like the ECB did
Wall Street fears ‘flashbacks to 2008’ with forced selling in $9 trillion U.S. corporate bond market
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-fear-flashbacks-to-2008-of-forced-selling-in-9-trillion-us-corporate-bond-market-2020-03-14

March 18
The U.S. government and American families have been swimming in debt — and will soon be drowning
Quote
• Let us imagine a household that is in debt up to its eyeballs and every month spending more than its income by a large amount. Then a disaster hits. Income goes down substantially, and expenses go up substantially. What will the result be — bankruptcy? The U.S. is a resilient, strong and rich nation. However, the example of the hypothetical household applies. The eventual solution may be demonetization of the debt.

• Yes, demonetization of the debt is ahead — the same debt that investors are rushing to buy for its perceived safety.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-us-government-and-american-families-have-been-swimming-in-debt-and-will-soon-be-drowning-2020-03-18

March 20
Investors pull record $108 billion out of bond funds this week
Quote
The largest outflows in bond funds on record this week likely reflect how investors are raising cash in fear that market turmoil will hurt returns further.

Funds and exchange-traded funds invested in bonds saw $108 billion of outflows this week ending on Thursday, nearly four times of the previous record. On the other hand, investors flocking to cash poured more than $90 billion into money market funds.

“Seeking to liquidate assets without locking in big losses, investors cashed out of bond funds on an epic scale,” said Cameron Brandt, director of research at EPFR Global, in a Friday note.

The worry is that once fund managers get rid of their most liquid holdings to meet redemptions, some may be forced to eventually sell their most illiquid holdings at a hefty transaction cost.

Money managers have been selling into fixed-income markets that have frozen up as primary dealers pulled back from their role as a facilitator of trading. These select group of dealers, who enjoy the privilege of buying bonds directly from the U.S. Treasury Department, have been reluctant to buy bonds and keep them in inventory, before selling them again, say market participants.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-pull-record-108-billion-out-of-bond-funds-this-week-2020-03-20

March 20
Clearing firm Ronin Capital unable to meet capital requirements at CME: Sources
Quote
In yet another a sign that the turmoil in financial markets is putting extreme stress on some firms, one of the CME Group's direct clearing firms was unable to meet its capital requirements, according to sources.

The move forced the exchange to step in and invoke its emergency protocols to auction off the portfolios. Ronin Capital, based in Chicago, was confirmed to be the firm in question, according to sources. …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/20/clearing-firm-ronin-capital-unable-to-meet-capital-requirements-at-cme-sources.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2020, 06:39:49 PM
Germany eyes 156 bln euros of new borrowing, 200 bln euros in debt authorisation
Quote
Germany is readying stimulus measures requiring about 156 billion euros ($166.83 billion) in net new borrowing and additional debt authorisation of up to 200 billion euros to fight the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak, according to a draft law and senior officials.

The package will include a supplementary government budget of 156 billion euros, 100 billion euros for an economic stability fund that can take direct equity stakes in companies, and 100 billion euros in credit to public-sector development bank KfW for loans to struggling businesses, the sources said.
The combined sum of possibly 356 billion euros in new debt would represent roughly 10% of Germany’s gross domestic output.
https://www.reuters.com/article/germany-debt/update-1-germany-eyes-156-bln-euros-of-new-borrowing-200-bln-euros-in-debt-authorisation-idUSL8N2BE0EV


EU approves 300 bln euro French state aid to fight coronavirus
Quote
BRUSSELS, March 21 (Reuters) - The European Commission said on Saturday it had approved three French state aid schemes to support the French economy amid the coronavirus epidemic that would mobilise 300 billion euros of liquidity support for affected companies.

Two of the schemes enable the French public investment bank Bpifrance to provide state guarantees on commercial loans and credit lines for firms with up to 5,000 employees.

The third scheme provides state guarantees to banks on portfolios of new loans for all types of companies. This is direct aid to the companies that will enable banks to quickly provide liquidity to any company that needs it. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-eu-france/eu-approves-300-bln-euro-french-state-aid-to-fight-coronavirus-idUSB5N28S00D
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: edmountain on March 21, 2020, 07:10:07 PM
The Global Recession is coming here, but faced with death and life altering disease it's small potatoes until we've broken the back of CV19.


Slowing the onset of CV19 is the only chance we have to come through this without being reduced to animals fighting for our next meal, our last breath. The kids dancing on the beach may return home and inherit their family wealth years earlier than expected. - if they survive until the paperwork has gone through.

...
I'm not sure I agree. COVID-19 is a threat but not one that I would characterize as existential.

As a clinician I must say that as bad as COVID-19 is, the existential threat posed by a second great depression frightens me even more. A pandemic comes but it also goes. The cycle of poverty and its associated diseases--malnutrition, treatable childhood illnesses, tuberculosis, HIV, depression, and many more--is a larger multi-generational threat than a pandemic. Worse, a weakened society burdened by poverty will be even more susceptible to future pandemics.

It is  therefore absolutely necessary that our response be based on consideration of metrics beyond just a simple count of the raw number of deaths directly from COVID-19.

(https://i.imgur.com/BKhSRQ7.jpg)
Source: https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2049-9957-1-3
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 21, 2020, 07:34:32 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QfSDhVHZQY4
https://mises.org/wire/global-economy-wont-bounce-back-soon
Quote
Calls for large fiscal packages to offset the pandemic may be useless. Allen-Reynolds at Capital Economics warned that “even if governments agreed on a larger tax and spending package, the economic impact would be much smaller than it would have been in the past, particularly if the fiscal stimulus was concentrated in Germany,” because output gaps are almost inexistent. This is not a demand problem; it is a supply shock, and you don’t address supply shocks with bricks, mortar, and deficit spending.
The shutdown of developed economies is now granted and will likely take us more than a couple of weeks afield. The shutdown of emerging economies is likely to start in May and to impact 2020 and 2021 estimates. Every analysis we have seen so far only factors in a 2020 recession, not a crisis, and even less a large 2021 hit to the economy, but the financial implications in an already overleveraged world add a string of credit events to an economic shutdown.
The latest wave of downgrades already assumes a large-scale stimulus, rate cuts, and quantitative easing. The diminishing returns of monetary easing were already evident in 2018 and especially in 2019, with global manufacturing purchasing managers' indexes (PMIs) in contraction and growth estimates coming down significantly throughout the year. Average downward growth revisions by country averaged 20 percent between January and December, in the middle of a massive coordinated central bank injection operation that injected up to $170 billion a month into the economy (considering the People's Bank of China (PBOC), Bank of Japan (BOJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and Fed) and saw widespread rate cuts.
The economic implications of a pandemic will not be solved with massive spending increases. Governments will implement large demand-side policies that are the wrong answer to a shutdown of the economy. Most businesses will suffer from the collapse in sales and subsequent working capital build, and none of that will be solved with deficit spending. You cannot mitigate a supply shock with demand policies, which increase debt and overcapacity in the already indebted and bloated sectors and do not help the sectors that are suffering an abrupt collapse in activity.
A forced temporary shutdown must also include a shutdown of the tax collection system. Governments already finance themselves at negative rates. They must eliminate (not defer) tax payments for companies in the period of crisis to avoid a massive unemployment increase and a domino of bankruptcies and facilitate working capital lines at zero rates to allow businesses and self-employed workers to navigate a shutdown. Governments that make the mistake of maintaining the current tax structure or who just prolong the payment period for six months will see the massive negative consequences of a shutdown in the next nine months.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 21, 2020, 07:45:25 PM
This Is Not a Recession. It’s an Ice Age.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/quantifying-coming-recession/608443/
Quote
What is happening is a shock to the American economy more sudden and severe than anyone alive has ever experienced. The unemployment rate climbed to its apex of 9.9 percent 23 months after the formal start of the Great Recession. Just a few weeks into the domestic coronavirus pandemic, and just days into the imposition of emergency measures to arrest it, nearly 20 percent of workers report that they have lost hours or lost their job. One payroll and scheduling processor suggests that 22 percent of work hours have evaporated for hourly employees, with three in 10 people who would normally show up for work not going as of Tuesday. Absent a strong governmental response, the unemployment rate seems certain to reach heights not seen since the Great Depression or even the miserable late 1800s. A 20 percent rate is not impossible.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 21, 2020, 07:48:38 PM
Maybe it is insensitive to point out that the 2008 economic fiasco was the only downturn in CO2 emissions we have collectively contributed to. Maybe the people flying to Italy to go skiing isn’t an
expense / luxury that we should rationalize because it “helps the economy” ? There are lots of other examples of wanton waste we call our economy and yes it keeps the wheels turning and we can afford healthcare, a big military, and massive government infrastructure because living large, and betting the market  are all we got to maintain BAU. Betting that the world actually fixes it’s CO2 issues while maintaining our extravagant lifestyles is fantasy thinking.
 I know Ed mountain means well and everyone else in society who performs anything as critical as healthcare deserves lots and lots of respect right now . I also think the third world  already suffers under the problems edmountain is trying to save the rest of us from. The poor weren’t flying viruses around the world to spread them, they largely haven’t been responsible  for the CO2 habit we promote and their lives will not change as much as ours in the aftermath of this pandemic. So maybe being poor is better in some ways ?  That is somethings may be good for you even if they don’t feel that way.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 22, 2020, 12:24:17 AM
Rich dead people don't provide much support for a robust economy.



I've lived with those trapped in intergenerational poverty - the point is that they lived.
None of us have lived through a pandemic like CV19 - they're already triaging people in Northern Italy. NYC is closing on Italy. No one has any idea what this will look like if it goes unchecked.


Hopefully no one ever will know.


Stay Isolated, Stay Healthy, Stay in Touch!
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: nanning on March 22, 2020, 04:57:34 AM
Excellent reasoning there Bruce.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 08:40:54 AM
You know, this is the real story of this thing. Even in the worst case, the pandemic will be over in a couple years and four out of five will get through it fine. But the recession we caused to stop the pandemic will go on long afterward and affect everybody. Mind, it was the right thing to do.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 22, 2020, 10:13:22 AM
This pandemic will be over THIS year. Either thru containment or herd immunity. The recession will be over this year. It won't last at all. Why would it?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 22, 2020, 10:31:50 AM
El Cid, premise one depends on a lot of unknowns.

We can't know if and how it will mutate (very likely it will, maybe to a less harmful strain, or maybe not!).
Therefore, we can't know if herd immunity will be a thing at all and we can't yet know if it becomes endemic.
We also don't know if there will be treatments or vaccines in a timely manner.

So premise two is obsolete.

Please don't state such things as facts. We can't possibly know!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 11:06:11 AM
Weekly Commentary: Please Don’t Completely Destroy...
http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-commentary-please-dont.html
Quote
I’ve been dreading this. In the midst of all the policy responses to the collapse of the mortgage finance Bubble, I recall writing something to the effect: “I understand we can’t allow the system to collapse, but please don’t inflate another Bubble.” It was obvious early on that policymakers had every intention to reflate Bubbles.

There was a failure to grasp the most critical lessons from that terrible boom and bust episode: Aggressive monetary stimulus foments market distortions, while promoting risk-taking, leveraged speculation and latent risk intermediation dysfunction. Years of deranged finance ensured unprecedented economic imbalances and deep structural impairment. There was no predicting a global pandemic. Yet today’s acute financial and economic fragility – and the risk of financial collapse - are directly traceable to years of negligent monetary management.

I have to adjust my message for today's post-Bubble backdrop: I understand we can’t allow the system to collapse, but Please Don’t Completely Destroy the Soundness of Central Bank Credit and Government Debt. Does anyone realize what’s at stake?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 11:19:23 AM
Covid-19 has exposed our financial fragility
https://unherd.com/2020/03/covid-19-has-exposed-our-financial-fragility/
Quote
But this recession will not only be driven by the economic loss of able-bodied workers, it will be helped along too by the steps political leaders take to avoid the spread of the coronavirus. In medicine, the immune system’s response can often be worse than the disease. When the body goes into septic shock, the immune system overreacts, releasing what doctors refer to as a cytokine flood, which can reduce blood to vital organs and lead to death. Sepsis is common and kills more than 10 million people a year. Today, the political reaction to Covid-19 is causing something akin to a septic shock to the global economy.

And then will our laws and institutions be changed by this?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 22, 2020, 12:39:25 PM
El Cid, premise one depends on a lot of unknowns.

We can't know if and how it will mutate (very likely it will, maybe to a less harmful strain, or maybe not!).
Therefore, we can't know if herd immunity will be a thing at all and we can't yet know if it becomes endemic.
We also don't know if there will be treatments or vaccines in a timely manner.

So premise two is obsolete.

Please don't state such things as facts. We can't possibly know!

Interesting thing is, you did not ask Tom not to state such things (" the pandemic will be over in a couple years and four out of five will get through it fine. But the recession we caused to stop the pandemic will go on long afterward and affect everybody") as facts.

Aren't you a bit biased?

I have said before and say this again: you can keep up a quarantine for two months but not 6 or 9. This means that by summer politicians will have either solved this or will let this go through the whole population. Either way, the recession will end this year and we will see recovery in 2021. That is my opinion. But of course I might be wrong, and anything could happen, it could mutate into the next Black Death, or an asteroid might hit the planet. Who knows? The future is unknowable. We should get back to this in 2021 to see who was right.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 01:09:29 PM
Let us just take predictions as opinions, OK? That is what everybody’s predictions are.
Otherwise I would have to phrase every future tense sentence as “It is possible, on the assumption that a rogue planet does not collide with the Earth or the sun does not go nova, or something else does not destroy the world, that the sun will rise in my city tomorrow at 6:51 AM.”.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 22, 2020, 01:47:34 PM
exponential growth in use of the term ' great depression ' across cnn , bloomberg and the like .. b.c.

 
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 22, 2020, 01:49:40 PM
The recession will be over this year. It won't last at all. Why would it?

Of course this is just your prediction, that's fine.  What I don't get it what appears to be your blind faith that central banks' and governments' response to this will necessarily be successful.  The ability to stimulate is not unlimited. There is a breaking point. No one knows if we will reach it, but no one knows that we definitely will not.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 22, 2020, 02:30:00 PM
The 'D' Word: Top Economists See Some Echoes of Depression in U.S. Sudden Stop
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-22/top-economists-see-some-echoes-of-depression-in-u-s-sudden-stop

The U.S. is entering a recession. The ultimate fear is that could turn into a protracted malaise that has some flavor of a depression.

As business activity halts and layoffs surge, some prominent economy watchers -- including former White House chief economists Glenn Hubbard and Kevin Hassett and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder -- have drawn comparisons to the Great Depression, though they’ve stopped well short of forecasting another one.

Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Maury Obstfeld said the world hasn’t seen a synchronized interruption in economic output in decades. The best example the University of California, Berkeley, professor can think of: “Well, maybe the Great Depression.”

By some estimates, the economy is headed toward its worst quarter in records since 1947. JPMorgan Chase & Co. expects gross domestic product to shrink at an annualized rate of 14% in the April-June period while Bank of America Corp. and Oxford Economics both see a 12% drop. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sees a 24% plunge.

Whether the coming contraction proves to be prolonged depends a lot on how long it takes to check the contagion.

“Unless this virus miraculously disappears from the population over the course of the next few months, it is a reasonable scenario that we might be in this lockdown setting for quite a while, measured in quarters,” said Harvard University professor James Stock, who is a member of the National Bureau of Economic Research panel that dates the timings of recessions.

If everybody stays home for six months, “it is going to be like the Great Depression,” Hassett, who’s returning to the White House to advise on economic matters, told CNN on Thursday.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 02:50:30 PM
Can I please be given a rigorous definition of “depression” as opposed to “recession”?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 22, 2020, 03:00:44 PM
Recession: widespread economic decline for 6 months

Depression: widespread economic decline for several years
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 22, 2020, 03:15:29 PM
Generally accepted definition of recession is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 22, 2020, 03:34:46 PM
I know the two quarter recession.
I once heard recession is fall down, depression is can’t get back up...so I guess it is duration and not severity that distinguishes them?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 22, 2020, 03:36:15 PM
Yep.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 22, 2020, 03:52:06 PM
Pandemic threatens to unleash economic chaos
Quote
Unlike past recessions driven by a chain of events that derailed the economy, the coronavirus crisis has forced the U.S. to suspend the longest expansion in modern history to prevent a widespread loss of life.

“The economy is in a medically induced coma,” said Daniel Alpert, managing partner of investment firm Westwood Capital, who estimates that 37 million Americans may be vulnerable to layoffs.   “The world has effectively come to an abrupt halt,” he said.

Economists broadly agree that the best tool to dig the U.S. out of recession is bolstering the medical response that allows Americans to emerge from isolation as soon as public health officials deem it safe. While the economic toll of social distancing is stark, economists say failing to mitigate the pandemic’s spread would be far costlier in the long run.

“This is a situation where physically, people cannot move. If you were simply talking about, you know, turning over the economy to fight a war, that’s easy. Rosie the Riveter would come out and rivet planes together,” Alpert said.

“The fact is," he added, "Rosie the Riveter is sitting at home sick or fearful of getting sick.”
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/488751-pandemic-threatens-to-unleash-economic-chaos
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 22, 2020, 04:21:04 PM
The recession will be over this year. It won't last at all. Why would it?

Of course this is just your prediction, that's fine.  What I don't get it what appears to be your blind faith that central banks' and governments' response to this will necessarily be successful.  The ability to stimulate is not unlimited. There is a breaking point. No one knows if we will reach it, but no one knows that we definitely will not.

Yes, you are partly right but partly wrong I believe. This is the great test for Modern Monetary Theory which basically postulates (among other things) that any country which has its own central bank and is not indebted in a foreign currency can spend ANY amount of money. Basically the government issues government bonds and the Central Bank prints enough money to buy it, so the government has as much money as they wish.
If the output gap is negative(meaning we are in a recession like now, for sure) it will not cause inflation - provided that you withdraw the stimulus in time.

In nominal terms most big, developed countries have UNLIMITED funds to be spent. In real terms of course, it would soon hit real economic constraints (eg, you can print billions of dollars but if you don't grow enough food it will only cause food prices to rise). But to manage a crisis, they can spend any amount of money. They can send a cheque of 10 000 dollars for each person if they wish to. It is a brutal, stopgap measure, but works as long as the crisis is short.

Of course, if this virus mutates into something much more evil then it will be no use, but the way things stand, I see absolutely no limit for fiscal spending and countering the economic collapse. The Federal Reserve can buy all the corporate bonds and all the stocks they want to stabilize prices, and the Administration can spend as much money as they wish on any projects.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 22, 2020, 04:26:11 PM
You basically contradict yourself there, EC. It it is either unlimited or in real terms it will hit a limit. You can't have it both ways. No sense in debating this here.

I am less sanguine than you about central banks' ability to respond.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 22, 2020, 06:26:38 PM
You basically contradict yourself there, EC. It it is either unlimited or in real terms it will hit a limit. You can't have it both ways. No sense in debating this here.

I am less sanguine than you about central banks' ability to respond.

No, EC is correct.  There is no limit to how much liquidity and "quantitative easing" (money printing) the central banks can do.  Though hyper-inflation is possible, the central banks also have unlimited ability to reverse these actions, very rapidly.   Expect, then, a severe contraction of the money supply (recession and deflation), counter-acted with the above stimulus, with an overshoot leading to serious inflation, compensated for by the reverse of economic stimulus.  Thus, deflation --> inflation --> eventual normalization.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 22, 2020, 06:34:37 PM
I would argue what you are describing is a fundamental destabilization of the monetary system.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 22, 2020, 06:36:49 PM
... Though hyper-inflation is possible ...

... fundamental destabilization of the monetary system.

Bitcoin is available at a discount ATM.

Just sayin'.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 22, 2020, 09:07:49 PM
You basically contradict yourself there, EC. It it is either unlimited or in real terms it will hit a limit. You can't have it both ways. No sense in debating this here.

I am less sanguine than you about central banks' ability to respond.

There is no contradiction. Central Banks can print any amount of money. This can stabilize the economy and panicky markets. However, money printing does not create real goods. If they overdo printing they will risk inflation.
But, when your house is on fire you do not care that you step into a nail. You will deal with the nail later, after putting out the fire. That is what they are going to do. 1st: put out the fire, and then deal with any problems arising.
Expect central banks to start buying huge quantities of government bonds and if needed corporate bonds or even equities. Coming soon!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 22, 2020, 09:34:13 PM
In Japan they've been doing this for years to no avail.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 22, 2020, 09:50:11 PM
Yes, that is a popular misconception.

1) actually they never did do it fullscale, only halfheartedly
2) even then, japan's per worker gdp (ppp) growth is no worse than usa or europe, see:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/288071-the-myth-of-japans-lost-decade

many think that japan's policies failed but their only real problem is a very quickly aging society
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 22, 2020, 10:21:23 PM
U.S. Jobless Rate May Soar to 30%, Fed’s Bullard Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-22/fed-s-bullard-says-u-s-jobless-rate-may-soar-to-30-in-2q

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard predicted the U.S. unemployment rate may hit 30% in the second quarter because of shutdowns to combat the coronavirus, with an unprecedented 50% drop in gross domestic product.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 22, 2020, 10:29:43 PM
While you lot are debating the extent to which Governments & Central Banks can hurl money at the problem, I am wondering if this slump in economic activity is NOT going to be quickly over.

The UK Government (and maybe the US Government) is looking seriously at the policy of several cycles of ...
- draconian measures to reduce infection growth,
- followed by relaxation of such measures resulting in new spikes in infections -
- followed by resumption of draconian measures....
Repeat until the virus has gone through the majority of the population - infections continue but at a low to moderate rate indefinitely. That policy does not fit well with Wall Street's view of getting it over with quickly followed by a V-shaped recovery and BAU by Q4/2020 to Qu1/2021.

The longer it drags on the harder to maintain the confidence trick that underpins the "Promise to Pay the Bearer on Demand" on paper (and now electronic) money.

Add to that the probability of unrestrained infection through many countries with 1 to 2 billion people seeking help from often extremely under-resourced Health systems which is likely to increase the mortality rate. Those countries do not have the financial expertise, systems and services required to manufacture these bailout mechanisms, unless the IMF magically manufactures a 2 trillion credit line.

There will be places where the dead will only be found when people bang on the door and break in. Remember Katrina?  They say that superficially New Orleans is thriving again, but for most of the population (that remains) - not.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 22, 2020, 10:38:12 PM
I ain't debating it. I wholeheartedly agree. I do not think that the fiscal stimulus or bond buying or any of it is remotely up to the task at hand. It is barely relevant.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 22, 2020, 10:51:30 PM
And or food supply depends for a pretty big part on countries with a not so very good health system. If the coronavirus reaches the countryside in these places. The same time you already have places in Africa that are hit by drought or still fighting the results of typhoons. There are giant swarms of locust in some areas in Africa and the Middle-East. We do have the advantage that most supplies are big for already many years. That's what kept the price for stuff like corn, rice, wheat......low. But still i think there is a pretty big risk. How much supply may become disrupted before the panic starts. Places like India, Brasil.....
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 22, 2020, 11:26:21 PM
A friend just phoned from his pizza restaurant in a mall in Hamilton. He was locking up when done with our conversation. He'd been open for less than a year.


Zero walklin customers today and no capacity to maintain his payroll. Everyone was terminated so that they could immediately apply for unemployment.


In 5 days his mall has gone from 184 businesses to 6 - now 5.


He closed his other location in Kitchener last Wed.


The Neapolitan Pizza he's been offering for a little over two years is new to the Canadian market.
They're wonderful when fresh but don't travel well.
Pizza as health food - who woulda thunk it.


This was his first attempt at business and he was doing well, if not spectacularly well. He expressed concern over his employees futures as well as his own. None of them have anything to fall back on, and he expects that his credit has been ruined. His 25 year old BMW is looking it's age & needs work.


He's young, healthy and bright as hell - but he put his heart into the business & his heart is broken. He expects to live with his sister. They've 2 youngsters and have use for a live in sitter.


We spent the best part of an hour online. I'd no idea what to say other than encouraging niceties. Platitudes that don't placate.
What do you say to someone who has called to say that they've lost their dream?


Calls like this are being made all over the world. Whenever you see a boarded up window someone's dream was crushed.


Sad Times
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 23, 2020, 06:17:12 AM
If/when the crisis is not over soon there also won’t be a quick V shaped economic recovery. This may turn recession into depression.  A depression permanently destroys the production capacity of an economy; it’s like an financial WMD that kills good and healthy businesses along with the bad.

Yes, governments can help but they cannot replace companies’ customer base if demand completely collapses. If this becomes a depression there will be bankruptcies and high unemployment.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 23, 2020, 06:49:38 AM
If/when the crisis is not over soon there also won’t be a quick V shaped economic recovery. This may turn recession into depression.  A depression permanently destroys the production capacity of an economy; it’s like an financial WMD that kills good and healthy businesses along with the bad.

Yes, governments can help but they cannot replace companies’ customer base if demand completely collapses. If this becomes a depression there will be bankruptcies and high unemployment.

I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 23, 2020, 08:21:27 AM
El Cid, I'm afraid BAU is not really an option. Quarantines and lockdowns cause economic hardship, but so does the pandemic itself. It's not an either-or situation where we can choose between economy or public health.  You cannot run a functioning economy when hundreds of people are dying daily as it's happening in Italy and Spain.

Lest not forget the airlines started to cancel flights due to lack of demand, before they were forced to do so. Here in Helsinki hotels and restaurants are still open but closing fast because they have no customers. Somebody I know works in a 250 room hotel and they two guests over the weekend...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 23, 2020, 08:25:23 AM
I think this will happen in the next one year:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 23, 2020, 10:49:55 AM
Quote
I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
I'm not so sure we can even survive 2 months, El Cid. With the small businesses operating with razor thin reserves and the big businesses putting all their money into stock buybacks even 2 months could kill the economy.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 23, 2020, 11:29:21 AM
Quote
I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
I'm not so sure we can even survive 2 months, El Cid. With the small businesses operating with razor thin reserves and the big businesses putting all their money into stock buybacks even 2 months could kill the economy.
True. That's why you need immediate, huge fiscal spending. And we will get it
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 23, 2020, 11:34:44 AM
I think what could save the economy is a massive testing for antibodies to identify those (supposedly) immune. There are many people who have already had the virus with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. These people can (supposedly) walk free, operate shops, factories, schools and so on.

Massive money printing and massive government deficit spending will surely be done, but they don't solve all problems, or the world's economic problems would have been solved a long time ago.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: NevB on March 23, 2020, 11:54:45 AM
Can I please be given a rigorous definition of “depression” as opposed to “recession”?

Recession is when many people loose their jobs, depression is when I loose my job.

Edit Not rigorous but it was what my economics teacher would say many many years ago.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 23, 2020, 01:16:25 PM
Quote
I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
I'm not so sure we can even survive 2 months, El Cid. With the small businesses operating with razor thin reserves and the big businesses putting all their money into stock buybacks even 2 months could kill the economy.
True. That's why you need immediate, huge fiscal spending. And we will get it
What is your guesstimate for the National Debt in two years than?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 23, 2020, 01:16:58 PM
Quote
I totally agree. That is why I say that you can quarantine an economy for 2 months but not 9. The economic pain would be too much to bear. They will rather let the pandemic take hold and be done with it
I'm not so sure we can even survive 2 months, El Cid. With the small businesses operating with razor thin reserves and the big businesses putting all their money into stock buybacks even 2 months could kill the economy.
True. That's why you need immediate, huge fiscal spending. And we will get it
But who gets the money?

Quote
The Associated Press on the delay in the $1tn economic stimulus package :

Democrats in the U.S. Senate on Sunday blocked legislation that would pump well over $1 trillion into the American economy on programs to help companies losing business during the coronavirus outbreak and unemployed workers.

The measure faltered after it failed to get the necessary 60 votes in the 100-member chamber to clear a procedural hurdle after days of negotiations.

The bill is Congress’ third effort to blunt the economic toll of a disease that has killed at least 400 people in the United States and sickened more than 33,000, leading governors to order nearly a third of the nation’s population to stay at home and putting much business activity on hold.

The measure envisages financial aid for regular Americans, small businesses and critically affected industries, including airlines.

Democrats had raised objections to the Senate bill throughout the day, with the Senate’s top Democrat, Chuck Schumer, saying it had “many, many problems” and would benefit corporate interests at the expense of hospitals, healthcare workers, cities and states.

The failure of the measure to move forward sends Democrats and Republicans back to the negotiating table. The speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said earlier on Sunday that Democrats in that chamber will begin crafting an alternative to the Senate bill.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2020, 01:37:53 PM
Nothing says, “We’re f’d,” more than day after day of “unprecedented moves” by the Fed — and a US Senate who can’t agree on how much of the economy and US population beyond themselves is worth saving.

Washington Post:
Fed announces unlimited bond purchases in unprecedented move
Quote
The Federal Reserve announced Monday an unlimited expansion of bond purchasing programs to backstop the credit markets, as millions of American households and businesses are getting crushed by the economic shutdown due to the spreading coronavirus.

The Fed said it would purchase Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning,” an indication the central bank is willing to do a lot more than the $700 billion in new purchases announced last week. This is an extraordinary move that effectively puts no limits on assets the Fed is willing to buy, an effort to goes even further than the 2008-09 financial crisis playbook.

In a series of sweeping moves, the Fed has taken bold action to ensure companies, cities and households have access to credit. On Monday, the Fed said it also expects to announce “the establishment of a ‘Main Street Business Lending Program’ to support lending to eligible small businesses” in the near future, another unprecedented step.

“The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support households, businesses, and the U.S. economy overall in this challenging time," Fed leaders wrote in a statement.

These move come as Congress has stalled on a major $1.8 trillion relief package for the nation and markets around the world plunged again. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard predicted Sunday that unemployment could hit 30 percent in the second quarter, a higher level than during the Great Depression.

“It has become clear that our economy will face severe disruption,” the Fed said. “Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate.”

The Fed also said Monday that it will support the commercial lending market by purchasing commercial mortgage-backed securities in addition to mortgage-backed securities made up of home loans.
https://apple.news/ALWMxet2rQdqTRP6EHGNKhg
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 23, 2020, 01:39:03 PM
Case in point :

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-announces-unlimited-qe-and-sets-up-several-new-lending-programs-2020-03-23?mod=home-page

Fed announces UNLIMITED QE!

No surprise here. There will be an enormous amount of fiscal spending as all bonds will be bought by the Fed. You don't need to worry about government debt as can be seen from the Japanese example of the past few years. Although Japans' gobernment debt to gdp is a gigantic 260% (vs 60-90% average of developed nations), half of it has been bough up buy the Bank of japan, effectively eliminating it.

If you want to know what comes, look at the US monetary regime during and after WW2. The Fed then fixed short term rates near zero and put a ceiling (yield curve control) on longer dated bonds as well. This is a new war, wartime rules apply.

Soon to come: corporate bond buying by Fed and later possibly even stock buying (though I doubt they will use this tool at this time). Also: 10+% government deficit in the USA
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2020, 01:49:07 PM
The US is running two races against coronavirus. It has to win both
Quote
Race No. 1: How quickly can the United States contain the coronavirus? Experts say the pressure on stock markets won't lift until the rate of new infections slows dramatically.

Race No. 2: How quickly can US lawmakers agree on an economic rescue package? Investors were hoping that a deal would emerge over the weekend in the Senate. It did not. Now, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says that House Democrats will introduce their own plan.

Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

I'm focusing on these two races because they are the most important factors in putting a floor under the dramatic stock market plunge in the United States. And they both need to be run simultaneously.

If policymakers are able to deliver a stimulus package, but can't bring down the infection rate, the US economy is likely to remain on lockdown and markets will remain under pressure. At the same time, if progress is made on limiting the spread of the coronavirus, but no support arrives for business and workers, the country will still be headed for a lengthy and nasty recession.

Here's Neil Shearing of Capital Economics:
"Economic policy can do little to offset the near-term damage caused by shutting down large parts of the economy -- its main function is to stop that hit from turning into a longer depression. A lasting recovery in markets is unlikely until we also see clear evidence that the global spread of coronavirus is slowing, allowing lockdowns to end," he said.

A handful of countries have made progress on both fronts. South Korea and China are good examples. Can a fractured Washington do the same? ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 23, 2020, 02:53:44 PM
Of course, nobody in the business media cares about the disease or the livelihood of ordinary people, only about the stock market plunge.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2020, 03:26:19 PM
Stock market live updates: Dow down 200, Fed goes all-in, waiting on Congress
Quote
9:12 am: Fastest drop of 30% on the S&P 500 ever, notes Bank of America

The coronavirus outbreak, which has halted travel and slowed business activity worldwide, has sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 tumbling into bear market territory at a record rate. "The 2020 correction continues to make history, having already claimed the title as the third fastest end to a bull market going back to 1928," Bank of America said in a note to clients Monday. "In a little over four weeks since the February 19 peak, 22 trading days, the S&P 500 (SPX) has sold off 30% on a daily closing basis, making this the fastest 30% decline in history," the firm added. The Dow is 35% below its February all-time high level, while the S&P 500 is 32% below its high. - Stevens


9:31 am: Stocks fall despite Fed action, hopes of relief package, Dow down 300 points

The three major averages fell on Monday despite the Federal Reserve announcing limitless asset purchases, which originally lifted stock futures.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 350 points after the opening bell. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq dipped 1.7% and 0.15%, respectively. Investors are waiting on a government stimulus package announcement as soon as Monday. — Fitzgerald

Such a doofus.  He’d kill everyone, starting with states that didn’t vote for him. ::)
Quote
10:17 am: Trump weighs potential easing of [health] guidelines to boost economy

A series of tweets on Sunday as well as multiple administration sources revealed President Donald Trump's fears about economic damage from the coronavirus shutdown. In several posts, the president suggested that he was looking to ease the coronavirus-related guidelines that the White House imposed last week for a 15-day period that will end next Tuesday. "WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF," Trump wrote in a tweet posted near midnight on Sunday. "AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"  Investors worried Trump's tweet may indicate the president is weighing sending the country back to work before the health system has a handle on the pandemic, leading to greater long-term economic damage.

After the initial all-caps message, the president retweeted a number of accounts suggesting that future guidelines from the White House will call for isolating high-risk groups only. NBC reported that creating a separate set of rules and restrictions for the hardest-hit states – notably, CA, NY, and WA – while allowing other states to return to business is a possibility. — Fitzgerald, Higgins
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/stock-market-live-today.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gandul on March 23, 2020, 03:42:06 PM
I think what could save the economy is a massive testing for antibodies to identify those (supposedly) immune. There are many people who have already had the virus with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. These people can (supposedly) walk free, operate shops, factories, schools and so on.

Massive money printing and massive government deficit spending will surely be done, but they don't solve all problems, or the world's economic problems would have been solved a long time ago.
That will come, but bear in mind the recovered count currently as 0.01% in Italy and Spain.
It will take a year until recovered+vaccinated (hopefully) make a significant fraction.
If we don't flatten the curve we would all be infected by summer, and could recover activity, but at the expense of millions dead everywhere without medical attention. I don't want to see that happening .
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 23, 2020, 03:57:54 PM
This thread is about the recession and possibly the recovery thereafter. How deep is the recession going to be, how long, when and why the recovery will start.

I agree that it would be, or rather would have been great if our leaders started strong quarantine measures earlier, would have started mass testing, contract tracing, etc etc. But that is sadly beside the point and belongs to the main COVID thread...where amazingly some people still argue about the usefullness of face masks, which should have been mass produced weeks ago by governments, distributed to all, and made compulsory in public...amazing
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 23, 2020, 04:19:02 PM
When a leader acts, or suggests actions, in ways that will extend the pandemic and thereby worsen and extend the recession-in-progress in the longer term, it very much belongs in a recession thread.  Similarly, actions which speed the resolution of the pandemic also affect the severity of the current economic crisis, and thus merit discussion.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 23, 2020, 05:31:12 PM
I think what could save the economy is a massive testing for antibodies to identify those (supposedly) immune. There are many people who have already had the virus with mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all. These people can (supposedly) walk free, operate shops, factories, schools and so on.

Massive money printing and massive government deficit spending will surely be done, but they don't solve all problems, or the world's economic problems would have been solved a long time ago.
That will come, but bear in mind the recovered count currently as 0.01% in Italy and Spain.
It will take a year until recovered+vaccinated (hopefully) make a significant fraction.
If we don't flatten the curve we would all be infected by summer, and could recover activity, but at the expense of millions dead everywhere without medical attention. I don't want to see that happening .
I believe Italy could have at least 50,000-100,000 people by now who have had the virus unknowingly and are not contagious anymore. Most of these would be relatively young and fit. Such a large number could help fill in high-exposure jobs in healthcare and commerce, making an economic difference and speeding the economic recovery.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 23, 2020, 06:05:01 PM
The owner of the gym that Carole attended has announced it's closing.


A second generation Portuguese/Canadian, the young owner attained masters in sports therapy & something else related to the business. His direct family had invested heavily in the enterprise together with other relatives and friends.


He'd been doing well & had purchased a large building that he and family members had refurbished with 2 open exercise rooms and a number of private therapy rooms, the results were impressive & all of the investors were content to "let it ride".


Possibly the next generation will catch a break.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: johnm33 on March 23, 2020, 07:58:06 PM
"but who gets the money?" My guess is the bankers just in time to snap up all the assets sold off in fire sales.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 23, 2020, 09:57:32 PM
Dow down 582 or 3.04%.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 24, 2020, 12:46:46 AM
New York Stock Exchange Chairman Sold Millions in Stock Before Crash
https://gizmodo.com/new-york-stock-exchange-chairman-sold-millions-in-stock-1842450764

Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange, sold $3.5 million in stock on February 26, a month after his wife, Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, received a closed-door briefing about the covid-19 threat. According to SEC filings, Sprecher sold $15.3 million more in stock on March 11, at the beginning of the crash that has seen trillions of dollars wiped from the financial markets. Both stock sales were of Intercontinental Exchange (known as ICE), the company that owns the NYSE, and of which Sprecher just happens to be CEO.

Sen. Loeffler’s own stock sales recently made headlines after it was revealed that she sold millions in stock the same day she received a closed-door January 26 briefing on the potential impact of the covid-19 pandemic. Loeffler denies having any knowledge of the sales done in her name.

What makes Sprecher’s stock sales a scandal? For one, they should have been reported as part of Loeffler’s financial disclosures, but were not. Senators have been required to give periodic financial disclosures since 2012 and those filings include any sales and purchases made by the politician’s spouse.

The other thing that makes it a scandal is that Sprecher is the CHAIRMAN OF THE FUCKING NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE and SOLD SHARES IN HIS OWN COMPANY BEFORE THE MARKETS TANKED. That alone seems rotten to the core, even before you add the element that his wife had secret information about a global pandemic and both of them unloaded while she kept publicly saying everything was fine and dandy.

In fact, this was the video Loeffler posted to Twitter on March 10, the day before her husband unloaded $15.3 million worth of stock in his own company.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenatorLoeffler/status/1237519751905267714

Sprecher and Loeffler are reportedly worth at least $500 million. Capitalism may be on its last legs during the covid-19 pandemic, but you can bet that millionaires and billionaires will do everything they can to keep it afloat. Even if a few million people have to die.

(https://owspoliticalcartoons.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/00-02i-12-10-11-political-cartoons-occupy-wall-street.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 24, 2020, 02:06:57 AM
(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/51/8f/c1/518fc1c0f4a92311823fd58c3f288dd9.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 24, 2020, 04:02:01 AM
I'm not here to defend corrupt millionaire senators and their sleazy spouses; but on Jan 26th, and certainly on February and March, the COVID-19 pandemic was a widely known issue and certainly not secret. Our own Sam posted on Jan 26th a "reasonable estimate" of 700 million dead globally for all to see, and called for hard containment using draconian measures. Although he may have hit the very high side of the uncertainty envelope, the data was there for everyone to crunch at their own leisure. I still thank him for that post - it probably saved my job.
Despite the above, the S&P 500 peaked only later on Feb 19th. Blind sell programs could very well have been selling shares without the owners' knowledge throughout that period.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on March 24, 2020, 04:20:32 AM
Crisis Profiteers are seldom well thought of once the crisis has past. I know that war profiteers faced a backlash in Canada that lasted well into the 1950s.


Any relying on the good will of the populace, or the voters, may find it easier to go into hiding than face the wrath of their neighbors - especially if those neighbors have lost a loved one.


Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 24, 2020, 07:16:51 AM
I'm not here to defend corrupt millionaire senators and their sleazy spouses; but on Jan 26th, and certainly on February and March, the COVID-19 pandemic was a widely known issue and certainly not secret.

Exactly. Yet markets rose in the blind faith that it can be contained in China. Anyone could have sold shares during February or bought put options for pennies (March S&P 500 at the money put options traded for 20-30 points at the beginning/middle of February...they paid out cca 700 points at expiry)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 24, 2020, 12:32:22 PM
Nothing is Working Now: What's Next for America?
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/nothing-is-working-now-what-s-next-for-america--TaEWIIxf0CmGnNCYxgTHA
Quote
What's Next? Twenty Things

These scars will last a generation. A huge change in attitudes is underway.
Credit ETFs are telling us lower. How will we know when prices are correct? When natural buyers come in, not when the Fed supports asset prices. As goes the credit market – so goes the stock market. Expect a massive wave of BBB downgrades.
The jobs reports in April and May will be the worst in history.
Earnings Negative For the Year. 1800-2000 Might be Fair Value on S&P 500.
New Way of Business
Crude will continue to glut until supply is taken out of the market. The Saudis want to burn Russia, Iran, and US frackers. Crude Trades Net of Storage and Transportation Costs. The lowest price crude is oil sands in Canada. Closed at $8 last Wednesday.
China has Suffered Permanent Damage. The chinese economic miracle is done.
Gold and Silver Struggle Until We Find the Equilibrium Level
Huge Change in Risk Parity. The relationship between stocks and bonds broke. They are now likely to rise and fall together eliminating use of one or the other as a hedge. There is only one trade that works: Liquidation. Risk parity is done as an idea because the stock-bond relationship is no longer stable.
Gargantuan deficits. The trillion dollar deficits of today will look like balanced budgets compared to what's coming next.
Even as an Austrian Libertarian, we need fiscal stimulus like we have never seen before, because if we don't see it, we will rerun the Great Depression. We are in a world of least bad options. If there was a good option, the markets would not have fallen as far as they did, as fast as they did.
Managing earnings ends. Corporate buybacks are gone. That's why we won't get back to the old highs.
Less globalization. Less risk taking. This will depress earnings and market multiples.
Higher interest rates and rates of inflation (after the crisis) and that will also depress stock market multiples.
Whether or not we have a prolonged depression depends on the amount of corruption in Washington.
Fed will not buy stocks. The same applies to Congress and SS funds. This would open up a huge can of worms that could potentially give the likes of AOC and radical liberals voting rights to all kinds of things including running the companies. Here's the Green News Deal, abide by it.
Fed will not position rates below zero. No run on banks. The Fed has a printing press.
The Elon Musk theory is this will all go away and we go back to buying $120K cars. But the market does not see it that way and neither do I.
People will not forget this. This is not 911. It is not 1987.
National crypto currencies coming. The next reserve currency will be a global crypto. It will not be Bitcoin.
This features a 68 minute video of a call-in program.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 24, 2020, 01:21:11 PM
You can start calming down when you hear : "This time is different". I heard it in 1987, 1998, 2009 (every ten years basically). And now this:

"People will not forget this. This is not 911. It is not 1987."

It is.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on March 24, 2020, 01:35:31 PM
You can start calming down when you hear : "This time is different". I heard it in 1987, 1998, 2009 (every ten years basically). And now this:

"People will not forget this. This is not 911. It is not 1987."

It is.

The more things change ...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 24, 2020, 02:07:19 PM
You can start calming down when you hear : "This time is different". I heard it in 1987, 1998, 2009 (every ten years basically). And now this:

"People will not forget this. This is not 911. It is not 1987."

It is.

Is your faith in the ability of the growth dependent global finance system to remain stable in the face of ANY events truly infinite?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 24, 2020, 02:19:27 PM

Is your faith in the ability of the growth dependent global finance system to remain stable in the face of ANY events truly infinite?

Not in ANY event surely, I can imagine scenarios that would make me think that there is no return (at least for many years). At the beginning of this outbreak in January I thought that mortality is 20+% and if that were true I think there would have possibly been civilizational collapse. Also, there are other scenarios that I can imagine that could cause collapse.

But I have seen quite a lot and now can safely draw the conclusions that:

- this virus can and will be beaten
- the recession caused by it is extremely, recordbreakingly deep, but managable
- governments and central banks have the tools to manage the financial system's underlying fragilities

Conclusion: I believe that 2020 will see a global recession but that will not turn into a depression and a breakdown of the financial system. We shall see one year from now who is right.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 24, 2020, 02:35:58 PM
The ghosts of 2008 haunt US coronavirus response
Quote
For the second time in two days, Democrats voted on Monday against advancing a $2 trillion package to mitigate the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Why? They want to avoid a replay of 2008.

Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, argued Monday that the American people "don't want another corporate bailout" that prioritizes Wall Street and airlines over workers.

"The fact is, we need to learn from 10 years ago," he said. "The same people came to us and said, 'We need this bailout.' They promised that it would help people stay in their homes. They promised that it would be money in the pockets of workers. The banks have done well. The executives have done well. But since then wages have basically remained flat."

Democratic senators have maintained that their response cannot reflect the 2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program, the $700 billion bank bailout often referred to as TARP, underscoring that the policy and political repercussions from that vote are still having ripple effects to this day.

The policy fallout is plain — while the emergency efforts saved the financial system and, by extension, the economy, a similar scale of effort and aid wasn't made available to average Americans, at least not without onerous rules and regulations to overcome and strings attached.


"In our desire to overwhelmingly respond ... there were great mistakes made," Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat, said Sunday. "We need to not only have a sense of urgency, we need to get it right."


Experts have been warning that economic data is going to take a dramatic turn for the worse in the coming weeks, revealing the scale of damage caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

One of the first reports out of Europe is ... not great.
IHS Markit's Flash Eurozone PMI Composite Index dropped to 31.4 in March from 51.6 in February, revealing what the survey's publishers described as the "largest collapse in business activity ever recorded."

The prior low for the eurozone was seen in February 2009, when the index hit 36.2. That suggests the pain is even more intense than during the peak of the global financial crisis. Huge job cuts are already underway.

"Employment is already falling at a rate not seen since July 2009 as despair about the outlook broadens, said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. …
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/investing/premarket-stocks/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 24, 2020, 02:38:36 PM
We shall see one year from now who is right.

Fair enough. You may indeed be correct as we cannot know what will happen.  There is, however, clearly a non-zero risk that the finance system will not be able to stay stable. Creating fiat currency is not a panacea.

Dead cat's bouncing this morning, btw.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 24, 2020, 05:39:58 PM
El CID, 2009 was different, it was the biggest recession since the Thirties and approached some earlier depressions.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on March 24, 2020, 06:15:34 PM
El CID, 2009 was different, it was the biggest recession since the Thirties and approached some earlier depressions.

So this will be similar to the other recessions?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 24, 2020, 06:31:36 PM
El CID, 2009 was different, it was the biggest recession since the Thirties and approached some earlier depressions.

Yes it was different. And it wasn't. It is always the same. There is some sort of ****up that is first underestimated and then at the bottom people think that it is the end of the world. The problems are always new but the pattern is the same:

****up---underestimation----realization of truth----panic----government and CB intervention ---- sometimes even more panic ---- "no future, the world has changed forever" sentiment ---- recovery

BTW, US unemployment was bigger in 1982 than in 2009:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 24, 2020, 06:43:31 PM
You can say fuck here, El Cid. :)

No, really. I asked Neven once and he said he's ok with it. We can't hear the beeping anyway.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 24, 2020, 08:30:35 PM
Thread by @chrislhayes:
Quote
I'm watching the "just let the virus do it's thing and keep the economy humming" school of thought grow on the right. And it seems worth noting something crucial.

First, it *is* true that the trade-off right now between a raging pandemic and a Great Depression style hit to the economy is a horrible one, and we need to get to a place where we can manage the virus and also have something like normal life.

The key to getting there is suppression: testing, tracing and treatment. We're still a long way from that.
But let's say you just think the costs outweight the benefits, and are not morally persuaded by the idea that we shouldn't let hundreds and thousands if not millions of (disproportionately) the oldest and sickest among us be left to die.

So just think of the economics of this: if you stopped lockdowns, and sent everyone back to work, lots and lots of people would get sick. You'd have workplaces where half the staff were out. And this would roll through all kinds of places, people who maintain the electrical grid
and water treatment and sewage systems, etc... Not only that, as the hospitals filled up and horror stories emerged, you'd have tons of deaths from things other than Covid-19 that couldn't get treated.

This would make ppl more scared of getting the bug and lead to further retreat

Which is to say, even if you care about economic activity as the only value here, it's really not clear that anything like "business as usual" is even a possibility in the midst of a roaring pandemic, even if you let everything stay open.

In fact, you risk ending up with the worst of both worlds: mass death and sickness AND ALSO an economy that's essentially shut down.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1242145766812024838.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 24, 2020, 09:33:34 PM
Sig’s quote is spot on. There is no choice between public health and a functioning economy.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 24, 2020, 09:38:28 PM
How We Know Ending Social Distancing Will Lead To More Deaths, In One Chart
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/3/24/21192528/coronavirus-social-distancing-economy-deaths

Trump - “we’re going to be opening up our country”.

Asked by a reporter if that meant “weeks or months,”

Trump - “I’m not looking at months, I can tell you right now.”

(https://static.politico.com/bd/2d/5dc7a139476a852111627d61bee3/1-tom-toles-washington-post.jpg)

--------------------------

... In 1918, the world was ravaged by a horrible flu pandemic, which was linked to as many as 100 million deaths globally and about 675,000 deaths in the US. In response, cities across America adopted a variety of social distancing measures to combat the pandemic. Based on several studies of the period, these measures worked to reduce the death toll overall.

But many cities, also worried about the effects of social distancing on normal life and the economy, pulled back their social distancing efforts prematurely. When they did, they saw flu cases — and deaths — rise again.

Consider St. Louis. The city is now heralded as an example of how to do social distancing right because it took an aggressive and layered response to the flu pandemic early on. But as a 2007 study published in JAMA found, St. Louis in 1918 pulled back its social distancing efforts prematurely — and that led to a spike in deaths.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17684187

Here’s how that looks in chart form, with the line chart representing excess flu deaths and the black and gray bars below showing when social distancing measures were in place. The highest peak comes after social distancing measures were lifted, with the death rate falling only after they were reinstituted.

(https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/650qJid_NXzun7CXYxHHq_22nZk=/0x0:839x802/1120x0/filters:focal(0x0:839x802):format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/19822036/St._Louis_social_distancing.png)

This did not just happen in St. Louis. Analyzing data from 43 cities, the JAMA study found this pattern repeatedly across the country. Howard Markel, an author of the study and the director of the University of Michigan’s Center for the History of Medicine, described the results as a bunch of “double-humped epi curves” — officials instituted social distancing measures, saw flu cases fall, then pulled back the measures and saw flu cases rise again.

Notably, the second rise in deaths only appeared when cities removed social distancing measures, the JAMA study found: “Among the 43 cities, we found no example of a city that had a second peak of influenza while the first set of nonpharmaceutical interventions were still in effect.”

Another 2007 study, published in PNAS, looked at 17 US cities and found the same trend: “[N]o city in our analysis experienced a second wave while its main battery of [nonpharmaceutical interventions] was in place. Second waves occurred only after the relaxation of interventions.”

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582

As the PNAS study concluded: “In practice, and until emergency vaccine production capacity increases, this means that in the event of a severe pandemic, cities will likely need to maintain [nonpharmaceutical interventions] for longer than the 2–8 weeks that was the norm in 1918.

... It can be hard to see this, because successful public health measures are often invisible. As Tara Smith, an epidemiologist at Kent State University, previously told me, “It’s the paradox of public health: When you do it right, nothing happens.” So if we’re doing social distancing right, we’ll prevent deaths — but it’s not like people will see each death that was prevented.

... The Alternative: Epidemiological models suggest coronavirus cases will rise if social distancing measures are relaxed, potentially causing hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths in the US alone.

----------------------

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hNWBsWihYjM

Andrei Bonovia: [to Captain Tupolev] You arrogant ass! You've killed us all!

- The Hunt for Red October - 1990
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 24, 2020, 10:43:49 PM
Peter Schiff: Coronavirus Is Exposing the Truth About the Economy
https://schiffgold.com/peters-podcast/peter-schiff-coronavirus-is-exposing-the-truth-about-the-economy/
Quote
It wasn’t long ago that all of the pundits were telling us that the economy was strong. As a result, a lot of people seem to think that once the coronavirus situation is resolved, the economy will quickly go back to normal. In his podcast Friday, Peter Schiff said that’s not going to happen. The coronavirus is actually going to reveal that the “great” economy was an illusion — a big, fat, ugly bubble that has now been popped.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 24, 2020, 10:47:27 PM
‘Helicopter Money’: This Is the Game-Changer Geo-Politically
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2020/03/23/helicopter-money-this-is-the-game-changer-geo-politically/
Quote
Russia and China well understand: Helicopter money, and unparalleled ‘printed’ bail-outs, this is the game-changer. For now, the US dollar is soaring on demand from states who see their own currencies crashing, but who have borrowed in dollars – and see those dollar loans becoming shockingly more costly, day-by-day.

But, the G7 Central Banks finally will have to fight the inflation monster that will be unleashed by their ‘helicopter theories’. Confidence in the dollar will decline, as more and more dollar helicopter ‘drops’ are made. Interest rates will rise, and western junk debt will become toxic, and untenable at higher rates.

In a word, the world will come to see the US as much less powerful and less competent than appearances have projected it. Its lacunae will stare out.

Is the time approaching for that global monetary re-set, as the dollar loses its shine, President Putin must be mulling …?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 24, 2020, 10:47:45 PM
Tom, your gold bug sites are always going to say the sky is falling.  I'm quite bearish but you gotta take those sites with a big grain of salt.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 24, 2020, 11:02:56 PM
Tom, your gold bug sites are always going to say the sky is falling.  I'm quite bearish but you gotta take those sites with a big grain of salt.
They only have to be right once...

A Greater Depression?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03
Quote
This trifecta of risks – uncontained pandemics, insufficient economic-policy arsenals, and geopolitical white swans – will be enough to tip the global economy into persistent depression and a runaway financial-market meltdown. After the 2008 crash, a forceful (though delayed) response pulled the global economy back from the abyss. We may not be so lucky this time.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on March 24, 2020, 11:44:26 PM
They only have to be right once...

Very true. Same goes for the "deficits don't matter" folks. They will continue to be right until they are spectacularly wrong (IMO).
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: interstitial on March 25, 2020, 02:45:22 AM
Gold claims to be a safe haven when everything else crashes but it really isn't true. They are just trying to sell their gold for a better price.
https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html (https://goldprice.org/gold-price-history.html)
The other argument if the economy collapses gold still has value. If you don't have possession of the metal physically the fund still collapses and does you little good. Even if you have possession you are close to starving you won't sell food for gold so it still loses all of its value.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 25, 2020, 06:58:37 AM
And there you have it: a stimulus worth of close to 10% of GDP. This is truly huge:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-talks-continue-on-massive-coronavirus-stimulus-as-final-agreement-proves-elusive-2020-03-24?mod=home-page

Europe should and will follow as they always do
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 25, 2020, 07:06:20 AM
As for gold:
- it is useful in coins in case of war as my grandparants learnt during ww1 and ww2...you can buy food, or even your life
- as an investment it is useful when real interest rates are negative and becoming more negative (ie. low interest rates+high inflation). As due to forced liquidation real bond yields shot up (see attached table), gold duly fell. As yields started to go down again, gold is rising.

Currently real 10 yr rates are cca -0,1% and as 10 yr nominal yields are 0,8%, this implies that inflation should be 0,9%/yr during the next 10 years. That is obviously way to low, given the extreme money printing we are going to get. The pricing is due to market malfunction and will be corrected during the next months. Real bond yields will collapse and gold will rise - I am saying this although I never really beleieved in gold...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 25, 2020, 08:41:47 AM
(https://i.redd.it/ufntmm81dqo41.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 25, 2020, 11:32:15 AM


A Greater Depression?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03




still prefer my suggestion ..   ' The Really Great Depression '  .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 25, 2020, 06:13:57 PM
Gold claims to be a safe haven when everything else crashes but it really isn't true. They are just trying to sell their gold for a better price.

Indeed.  A rational investor might invest some money in gold, specifically as a hedge against inflation.  Otherwise, it's a terrible investment, more of a gamble.

People obsessed with owning gold seem to be the source of most calls for "returning to the gold standard."  The idea is completely daft.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on March 25, 2020, 08:13:06 PM
Maybe climate change will force us back to a gold standard one day. Than the times of unlimited money printing will be over.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 25, 2020, 09:23:39 PM
A rational investor might invest some money in gold, specifically as a hedge against inflation.  Otherwise, it's a terrible investment, more of a gamble.

People obsessed with owning gold seem to be the source of most calls for "returning to the gold standard."  The idea is completely daft.

I tend to agree. I have never been a gold bug - on the contrary. However, the time to own gold is the time when fiat money is printed like crazy and real interest rates are very low. This is one of those times. But then again, I would rather own stocks
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 11:01:20 PM
There is a problem with gold...

Gold supply fears push spot prices far below U.S. futures ...www.reuters.com › article › us-gold-trading › gold-supply-fears-push...
1 day ago - LONDON (Reuters) - London spot gold prices fell far below U.S. gold futures on Tuesday in a sign the market is worried air travel restrictions and precious metal refinery closures will hamper shipments of bullion to the United States to meet contractual requirements.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 08:17:02 AM
Found a better one and changed the image, Bluice.

Looks like this is unprecedented.

Do you have a source?
 
I would like to share this with a friend and it would be better if it was sourced.

Updated version here, NevB.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fp3dam/oc_updated_speed_of_all_sp_bear_market_declines/

(https://i.redd.it/01gu8fa6fxo41.png)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 26, 2020, 08:24:46 AM
Nice chart. I think the 1987 comparison is about right. There we also had a shock, although not external but internal. You could also argue for a 1929-style scenario where a 50% drop was followed by a 50% rally (and then the market turned down).The S&P fell 35% in less than a month (3400-2200). That seems about enough. I think 2 years from now we will be higher, wouldn't bet on 2 months though.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 26, 2020, 10:03:47 AM
Great chart. What I see there is that every recession is different. Some start with a slow and steady decrease, some with a bang and a huge drop.

Especially after one year from the start graphs have very little in common.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 12:19:48 PM
It’s Over
https://dailyreckoning.com/its-over-2/
Quote
Nothing is going back to January 2020 levels. Rather than the “V-shaped recovery” expected by Goldman Sachs et al., the crash in asset prices will eventually gather momentum.

Why? It’s simple: for 20 years we’ve over-invested in speculative bubbles and squandered borrowed money on consumption and under-invested in productivity-increasing assets.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 12:22:28 PM
Rickards: It’ll Get Worse it Before It Gets Better
https://dailyreckoning.com/rickards-itll-get-worse-it-before-it-gets-better/
Quote
The questions for economists are whether the lost output will be permanent or temporary and whether U.S. growth will return to trend or settle on a new path that is below the pre-virus trend.

Some lost expenditure may just be a timing difference. If I plan to buy a new car this month and decide not to buy it until August, that’s just a timing difference; the sale is not permanently lost.

But if I don’t go out for dinner tonight and then do go out a month from now, I’m not going to order two dinners. The skipped dinner is a permanent loss.

Unfortunately, 70% of the U.S. economy is based on consumption and the majority of that consists of services rather than goods. This suggests that much of the coronavirus impact will consist of permanent losses, not timing differences.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 01:56:53 PM
3.3 M unemployment
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 26, 2020, 02:07:39 PM
Jobless Claims Soar Past 3 Million to Record
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/26/weekly-jobless-claims.html

Americans displaced by the coronavirus crisis filed unemployment claims in record numbers, with the Labor Department reporting Thursday a surge to 3.28 million.

The number shatters the Great Recession peak of 665,000 in March 2009 and the all-time mark of 695,000 in October 1982. The previous week, which reflected the period before the worst of the coronavirus hit, was just 282,000.

... The near-term damage will be dramatic.

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, not seasonally adjusted, totaled 2,898,450 for the period. That's an increase of 2,647,034, or 1,052.9%, from the previous week.

Pennsylvania increased 20-fold, from 15,439 to 378,908. New York saw its number more than quintuple, rising from 14,272 from the previous week to 80,334, while California tripled to 186,809. Louisiana, where coronavirus infections have risen at a dangerous pace, went from 2,255 a week ago to 72,620.

(https://www.commondreams.org/sites/default/files/users/user20/unemployment_spike.jpg)
So Much Winning ... Make America Great Again?

(... the numbers may be an undercount based on the ability to process new applications)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 03:47:29 PM
Greatest Depression Already Started – Gerald Celente
https://usawatchdog.com/greatest-depression-already-started-gerald-celente/
Quote
Gerald Celente, a top trends researcher and Publisher of The Trends Journal, says the world is already in an economic depression. Celente explains, “Never in the history of the world has the whole world, or most of the world, been shut down by politicians destroying people’s lives and their businesses. People are going to go bankrupt. You are going to see suicide rates increase. You are going to see crime escalate and people OD’ing on drugs because of depression. . . . Our leaders are totally closing down the economy. Again, this has never been done before. It’s not only Wall Street going down, Main Street went down simultaneously. That is unprecedented. Usually, the markets go down and then the ripple effects start hitting Main Street. This time–boom, they are both down. . . . It’s going to be worse than the Great Depression. It’s going to be the Greatest Depression.”
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 26, 2020, 06:11:21 PM
Well Tom, my country lost 2/3 of its territory after WW1, tearing apart many families. Then came the Bolshevik takeover in 1919, then the country was invaded by surrounding states, then came hyperinflation in 1920-1921, then the economic collapse of 1929-33, then we became allies of the Germans and lost 10% of our population during WW2, while the Soviets took away everything they found (food, factory-equipment, etc. We started to rebuild from scratch. Then came another Bolshevik takeover and people were sent to gulags. Then came the revolution of 1956 which was brutally supressed by Russian tanks, we fought them with Molotov cocktails, but noone came to help, so we lost. Another 200 000 people left the country. Then came happy times: you had food, and you could live without war. Of course you could not travel, or vote or say anything bad about the Party. Then came 1989 and we fell into a huge economic depression (same size as 1929-33), lost 30% of GDP in 4 years, with 20-30% unemployment. Oh, and then there was the crisis of 2006-13, when for 7 years there was no growth in the country, with a government bond and FX crisis.

So tell me more about the Greatest Depression :) my people will not be easily surprised
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 26, 2020, 07:41:16 PM
Good point El Cid. There are other places in the world besides the famed US of A.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on March 26, 2020, 08:02:28 PM
+1

Well put, El Cid
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 09:56:21 PM
All that tells me is that Very Bad Things happen in real life, not just fiction.
And a Very Bad Thing is likely starting.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 27, 2020, 03:19:34 AM
(https://www.wctrib.com/incoming/4975273-vf0fxy-022920.op.wct.toon01.TOP.COVID-19-Wall-St-ride.jpg/alternates/BASE_LANDSCAPE/022920.op.wct.toon01.TOP.COVID-19%20Wall%20St%20ride.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: OrganicSu on March 27, 2020, 05:11:07 PM
My gut feeling says the US$ will crash, loosing essentially all value, during this Coronavirus episode.

If you don't believe it will crash this year, what will support it? The US$ is being termed the last safe haven but that seems like a case of The Emperor's New Clothes.

Would that crash signal the official transfer of global leadership to China and happen relatively peacefully?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 27, 2020, 05:36:34 PM
My gut feeling says the US$ will crash, loosing essentially all value, during this Coronavirus episode.
Crash against what? Are the alternatives (yen, eur, whatever) any better? NO. Money printing everywhere. It is a beauty contest where only really ugly peopée take part. Which one should win? And why?
Yes, the dollar is overvalued vs almost all major currencies, so it could slide 10-20% easily this year but i would not call it a crash
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 27, 2020, 08:56:07 PM
(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/ed9a34c/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F89%2F13%2F0f6ca7794c008fc3cdf017eed6e9%2F7-scott-stantis-chicago-tribune-and-tribune-media.jpg)

--------------------------------

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/44546a9/2147483647/resize/1160x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F2c%2F1f%2F6772614f4a2dbaafe46dc0712360%2F9-gary-varvel-creators.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 28, 2020, 07:11:56 AM
The Next Financial Crisis: A Collapse of the Mortgage System
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/27/mortgage-system-collapse-coronavirus-pandemic-152338

The mortgage finance system could collapse if the Fed doesn’t step in with emergency loans to offset a coming wave of missed payments from borrowers crippled by the coronavirus pandemic.

... Congress did not include relief for the mortgage industry in its $2 trillion rescue package — even as lawmakers required mortgage companies to allow homeowners up to a year's delay in making payments on federally backed loans.

When individuals stop making payments on their home mortgages, the companies that handle the loans and process those payments, so-called mortgage servicers, are still on the hook: They're legally obligated to keep sending money to insurers and investors in mortgage-backed securities, the giant bundles of home loans that are packaged and sold on the securities markets.

... Concerns about liquidity in the mortgage finance system have been building for years, as the companies that service mortgage loans are increasingly nonbanks — which don’t have banks’ access to Fed loans or their strict capital requirements and deposits to fall back on. Banks, which once dominated the business, have steadily pulled back since the 2008 housing market meltdown.

Usually, a mortgage company can withstand a few borrowers failing to make payments, but the breadth of the coronavirus pandemic has sparked industry estimates of between 25 and 50 percent of borrowers being unable to pay.

That “could threaten the ability of a mortgage servicer, particularly nonbank servicers, to remain a going concern,” the Conference of State Bank Supervisors warned Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Mnuchin in a March 25 letter.

If 25 percent of borrowers fail to make their mortgage payments, the industry would need $40 billion to cover three months of payments, according to Jay Bray, CEO of the servicing company Mr. Cooper. Depending on how long the situation lasts, Broeksmit said demands on servicers “could exceed $75 billion and could climb well above $100 billion.”
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 28, 2020, 07:23:54 AM
The Next Financial Crisis: A Collapse of the Mortgage System
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/27/mortgage-system-collapse-coronavirus-pandemic-152338

The mortgage finance system could collapse if the Fed doesn’t step in with emergency loans...

But they will. As all other central banks. This time the financial system is not the core of the problem and can be handled relatively easily.

The service sector - which in most recessions a stabilizing factor - is collapsing. We need novel solutions for that problem, eg. (temporary) universal basic income, direct handouts to the population (happening in the US right now), government paying (part of the) wages instead of firms, etc. This is the bigger problem now.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 28, 2020, 09:42:21 AM
We need novel solutions for that problem, eg. (temporary) universal basic income, direct handouts to the population (happening in the US right now), government paying (part of the) wages instead of firms, etc. This is the bigger problem now.

+1
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 28, 2020, 06:09:43 PM
Next US bear market will be worst of my life: Jim Rogers
https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1183911.shtml
Quote
"[US policymakers] are ensuring the next bear market for US stocks will be the worst market in my life," Rogers said. He indicated that because of how China and the US tackled the virus, the economic role played by the two countries in the world will undergo a shift.

Rogers also predicted that it will take longer than expected for the world to end the turbulence in capital markets, due to incredibly high debt and huge excesses of capital. 
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on March 28, 2020, 07:06:32 PM
Jim Rogers is a great speaker and a great person. I love that guy. And he - together with George Soros - was in charge of the Quantum Fund in the 70s and 80s when it had stellar returns (30-40%/year). So he clearly achieved something in financial markets. I always watched his interviews on CNBC in the 90s.

However, he has been very wrong about most things he said (he was a commodity permabull, a Chinese stock permabull and bearish on everyhing else...while the exact opposite happened) during at least the past 10 years, so I wouldn't necessarily trust him on this.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 28, 2020, 08:07:11 PM
The latest sign the recession is intensifying: White-collar workers are being laid off now
Service sector jobs got slammed early in the coronavirus crisis, now it's tech, legal and other professionals reporting layoffs, pay cuts and furloughs.
Quote
The coronavirus pandemic has sent the United States hurtling toward recession with startling haste, as dozens of states and cities have taken drastic measures to battle the fast-spreading disease that has claimed more than 27,000 lives worldwide. People are sequestering themselves and nonessential businesses have shuttered as communities adapt to social distancing, the best defense against infection. But as last week’s record-shattering 3.3 million jobless claims indicate, the near-shutdown is taking a toll in almost every corner of the U.S. economy.

White-collar workers, who make up a greater share of the economy than ever before, are increasingly getting caught in the fallout. ...
The Washington Post via Apple News:    https://apple.news/ARGofG-d8RAaBrmLbBACmQA
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 28, 2020, 10:11:50 PM
Roubini: Coronavirus economic damage is 'worse even than the Great Depression'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lKh_DBNBsEE
Quote
Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at NYU Stern, joins Yahoo Finance's On The Move panel to discuss how the government has handled the coronavirus pandemic and the severe economic damage coronavirus COVID-19 is having on the economy.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 28, 2020, 10:16:03 PM
Seth Levine: COVID-19 Is Not The Last War
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/seth-levine-covid-19-is-not-the-last-war/
Quote
Given this dynamic, I’m skeptical that flooding the financial system with liquidity necessarily helps. In the GFC, a relatively small handful of banks (and finance companies) sat at the epicenter. Remember, finance is a levered industry characterized by timing mismatches of cash flows; it borrows “long” and earns “short.” This intermediation is its value proposition. Thus, extending liquidity can help bridge timing gaps to get them through short-term issues, thereby forestalling their deleveraging.

Today, however, the financial system is not the cause of the crisis. True, liquidity shortfalls are the source of stress. However, they are not limited to any one industry or a handful of identifiable actors. Rather, nearly every business may find itself short on cash. Availing currency to banks does not pay your favorite restaurant’s rent or cover its payroll. Quite frankly, I’m skeptical that any mandated measure can. A centralized solution simply cannot solve a decentralized problem.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 28, 2020, 10:20:50 PM
#MacroView: The Fed Can’t Fix What’s Broken
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-the-fed-cant-fix-whats-broken/
Quote
We will find out in a few months just how bad things will be.

But I am sure of one thing.

The Fed can’t fix what’s broken.

While the financial media is salivating over the recent bounce off the lows, here is something to think about.

Bull markets END when everything is as “good as it can get.”
Bear markets END when things simply can’t “get any worse.”
We aren’t there yet.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on March 29, 2020, 12:18:02 AM
far from the ivory towers of capitalism , 100 million of India'a poor have begun the long walk home .
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 29, 2020, 04:04:54 AM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/6_157.jpg?resize=550x550)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 29, 2020, 10:21:51 AM
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Weekly Commentary: The Solvency Problem
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-commentary-solvency-problem.html
Quote
Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One of the great tragedies from the failure of this multi-decade monetary experiment will be the loss of faith in free market Capitalism – along with our institutions more generally.

Somehow, we must convince younger generations that the culprit was unsound finance. And it’s absolutely fixable. Deeply flawed, experimental central banking was fundamental to dysfunctional markets and resulting deep financial and economic structural impairment. The Scourge of Inflationism. If we just start learning from mistakes, we can get this ship headed in the right direction.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 29, 2020, 02:59:38 PM
IndiaNivesh shuts portfolio management business, citing coronavirus
Quote
MUMBAI, March 29 (Reuters) - IndiaNivesh Investment Managers has decided to wind up its portfolio management business due to fallout from the coronavirus, becoming one of the first casualties of the current market meltdown in India.

“IndiaNivesh Investment Managers ... has decided to close its current strategy which is Small Cap (Sprout) due to recent market turmoil and difficult economic circumstances due to ongoing COVID-19 issues,” IndiaNivesh said in a statement on Sunday. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-indianivesh-idUSL4N2BM08N
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Rodius on March 30, 2020, 01:34:58 AM
Saturday, March 28, 2020
Weekly Commentary: The Solvency Problem
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2020/03/weekly-commentary-solvency-problem.html
Quote
Being an analyst of Credit and Bubbles over the past few decades has come with its share of challenges. Greater challenges await. I expect to dedicate the rest of my life to defending Capitalism. One of the great tragedies from the failure of this multi-decade monetary experiment will be the loss of faith in free market Capitalism – along with our institutions more generally.

Somehow, we must convince younger generations that the culprit was unsound finance. And it’s absolutely fixable. Deeply flawed, experimental central banking was fundamental to dysfunctional markets and resulting deep financial and economic structural impairment. The Scourge of Inflationism. If we just start learning from mistakes, we can get this ship headed in the right direction.


That sounds like he wants people to stop being greedy.
Good luck with that.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 30, 2020, 10:08:53 PM
Coronavirus US Job Losses Could Total 47 Million, Unemployment Rate May Hit 32%, Fed Estimates
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-job-losses-could-total-47-million-unemployment-rate-of-32percent-fed-says.html

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.

The projections are even worse than St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s much-publicized estimate of 30%. They reflect the high nature of at-risk jobs that ultimately could be lost to a government-induced economic freeze aimed at halting the coronavirus spread.

“These are very large numbers by historical standards, but this is a rather unique shock that is unlike any other experienced by the U.S. economy in the last 100 years,” St. Louis Fed economist Miquel Faria-e-Castro wrote in a research paper posted last week.

-------------------------------

Macy’s will start furloughing most employees this week as it copes with significant sales losses
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-macys-will-furlough-most-employees-beginning-this-week.html

Macy’s said the majority of its 130,000 employees will be furloughed beginning this week as it copes with significant sales losses during the coronavirus pandemic.

-------------------------------

Amid outbreak 49% of companies considering layoffs, more than one-third freezing new hires
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/coronavirus-jobs-survey-49percent-of-companies-considering-layoffs.html

Nearly 50% of companies say they are at least somewhat likely to conduct layoffs over the next three months due to coronavirus COVID-19, while more than one-third of firms (37%) say they have already instituted a hiring freeze.

That’s from an online survey of more than 250 companies, varying in size and sector, conducted from March 20–26 by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the oldest outplacement firm in the U.S., which works with companies on transitions services for employees. At that time the survey launched, coronavirus cases had just passed 18,000 in the U.S.

Forty-nine percent of companies told Challenger, Gray & Christmas they are very or somewhat likely to conduct layoffs in the next three months, while 11% reported they have conducted permanent layoffs; another 7% have conducted temporary layoffs.

-------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on March 30, 2020, 11:47:22 PM
Although the article went on to say that the unemployment would be short-lived.  Quite different from the great depression, when it lasted years.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on March 31, 2020, 12:03:47 AM
Coronavirus Economy: Recession or Depression?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/coronavirus-greater-great-depression-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-03?

... Economist Nouriel Roubini, who warned about the 2008 financial crisis as early as 2006, thinks a rebound later this year is unlikely. In a column for Project Syndicate, Roubini - aka "Dr Doom" - argued that public health responses in advanced economies have fallen short of what is needed to contain the pandemic, and that fiscal packages are "neither large nor rapid enough to create the conditions for a timely recovery". For these reasons, he says, "the risk of a new Great Depression, worse than the original - a Greater Depression - is rising by the day".
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 31, 2020, 02:01:28 AM
Moody's cuts outlook on $6.6 trillion US corporate debt pile to 'negative'
Quote
Moody's Investors Service has cut its outlook on corporate debt to negative, saying that an economy about to tip into recession because of the coronavirus will result in rising default rates.
...
The warnings comes even after the Federal Reserve took the unusual step of saying it would be buying corporate debt as a way to keep liquidity flowing in a market that froze up after the government announced social distancing measures.

While Moody's said central bank intervention will help, some of the most heavily indebted sectors still will be vulnerable. The Fed's purchases will be limited to investment-grade companies with strong credit quality.


"Government support will cushion the blow for some companies, but it is unlikely to prevent distress at businesses with less certain long-term viability," DeForest wrote.

Nonfinancial corporate debt totaled $6.6 trillion at the end of 2019, a 78% increase since the Great Recession ended in mid-2009.

Low interest rates and easy financing terms helped fuel the boom. Investor protections known as covenants have been around all-time lows, meaning that some buyers could see big losses in event of defaults.

There also are companies on the borderline of investment grade and in danger of sliding to junk status that are posing risks for the corporate bond market. Goldman Sachs estimates that $765 billion worth of investment- and high-yield bonds have experienced ratings downgrades already in 2020.

DeForest also noted significant refinance risks — some $169 billion of debt will come due in 2020 and $300 billion in 2021 and rolling over that debt will be difficult "under these trying conditions," DeForest said. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/moodys-cuts-outlook-on-6point6-trillion-us-corporate-debt-pile-to-negative.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 31, 2020, 10:09:01 AM
“V” SHAPED RECOVERY WILL NEED VIAGRA
https://pentoport.com/v-shaped-recovery-will-need-viagra/
Quote
At the onset of the 2008 Great Recession, government broke the mold on how much money it could create and what it could spend it on. Now, the Wuhan Virus has paved the way to helicopter money, which has now arrived. After all, the Fed knows there won’t be a solvent pension plan in America if it doesn’t massively inflate asset prices…and fast.

Therefore, another prediction of mine is about to come true: stagflation the likes of which we have never seen before is on the way. Expect a very slow grind higher in the global economy once the virus is under control. However, there should be a steeper incline in asset prices as the world’s central banks work overtime on printing money in order to finance the massive increase in government expenditures and to put in place Universal Basic Income. Also, expect the gap between asset prices and the underlying economy to grow even greater than ever before.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Rodius on March 31, 2020, 11:21:00 AM
“V” SHAPED RECOVERY WILL NEED VIAGRA
https://pentoport.com/v-shaped-recovery-will-need-viagra/
Quote
At the onset of the 2008 Great Recession, government broke the mold on how much money it could create and what it could spend it on. Now, the Wuhan Virus has paved the way to helicopter money, which has now arrived. After all, the Fed knows there won’t be a solvent pension plan in America if it doesn’t massively inflate asset prices…and fast.

Therefore, another prediction of mine is about to come true: stagflation the likes of which we have never seen before is on the way. Expect a very slow grind higher in the global economy once the virus is under control. However, there should be a steeper incline in asset prices as the world’s central banks work overtime on printing money in order to finance the massive increase in government expenditures and to put in place Universal Basic Income. Also, expect the gap between asset prices and the underlying economy to grow even greater than ever before.

Maybe I am misremembering..... but wasnt the US a strong critic of China doing this?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on March 31, 2020, 11:34:58 AM
Nope, no misremembering on your part, Rodius.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 31, 2020, 08:03:23 PM
Man Who Predicted The Global Collapse Says It Will Be Devastating In The Next 6-12 Months
https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-just-warned-the-global-collapse-will-be-devastating-in-the-next-6-12-months/
Quote
No one should believe for one moment that once CV is gone we will experience a V shaped recovery. There will be no V, there will be no U and nor will we see a hockey stick recovery. What few people understand, including the so called experts, is that there will be no recovery at all. An extremely rapid decline of the world economy has just started and will be devastating in the next 6-12 months, whether CV ends soon or not.
************************************
Surging national debts and unlimited money printing has always been the inevitable end to periods of excesses.  We are now seeing not only the end of a 100 year cycle since the Fed was created, but also the end of a 300 year cycle since John Law and the Mississippi Bubble in France in 1716-20. We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire but that only future historians will know.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on March 31, 2020, 08:13:06 PM
We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire

We could also be making things up...  ::)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on March 31, 2020, 11:03:35 PM
Yeah, I think the cycle of Internet crap is still in full swing.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on April 01, 2020, 12:54:15 PM
It was all a bad dream .. April Fool ..
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on April 01, 2020, 01:32:23 PM
I posted something about this a while back (PCV19) and got pilloried here for somehow being in the pocket of the global travel industry.  That was a complete misreading of my point then, and will be a complete misreading now if that's what you think I'm saying.

I dispair for the 100s of millions to perhaps >1B people around the world that rely on the infusion of hard currency into their economies coming from tourism and travel. The industry itself is an unsustainable nightmare, but that does not diminish the reliance on it of huge numbers of vulnerable people all over the world.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 01, 2020, 01:52:28 PM
Economic Shockwaves
How the coronavirus is impacting our future
https://www.peakprosperity.com/economic-shockwaves/
Quote
It’s certain that we’re heading into recession. How deep and long with it be? Will the announced stimulus efforts help?

Can we get things back to the way they were, or are we entering a “new normal”? If the latter, what will that look like?

To address these questions, I recorded the following interview today with two of Peak Prosperity’s favorite macro experts, John Rubino and Charles Hugh Smith.

Both are in agreement that the current breakdown represents “the end of the road” for the 75-year Debt Supercycle we’ve been living through. And because of that, the future is going to look and feel very different to what we’ve been used to:
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on April 01, 2020, 03:53:55 PM
Man Who Predicted The Global Collapse Says It Will Be Devastating In The Next 6-12 Months
https://kingworldnews.com/greyerz-just-warned-the-global-collapse-will-be-devastating-in-the-next-6-12-months/
Quote
No one should believe for one moment that once CV is gone we will experience a V shaped recovery. There will be no V, there will be no U and nor will we see a hockey stick recovery. What few people understand, including the so called experts, is that there will be no recovery at all. An extremely rapid decline of the world economy has just started and will be devastating in the next 6-12 months, whether CV ends soon or not.
************************************
Surging national debts and unlimited money printing has always been the inevitable end to periods of excesses.  We are now seeing not only the end of a 100 year cycle since the Fed was created, but also the end of a 300 year cycle since John Law and the Mississippi Bubble in France in 1716-20. We could even be at the end of a 2,000 year cycle from the Roman Empire but that only future historians will know.

Ah yes, the infamous and elusive cycles.  I suppose that is just like the solar cycle, and that the globe will start cooling soon.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 01, 2020, 03:57:32 PM
Oh, how I love these Elliot-cycle guys with their millenia-long timescale! I studied Elliot-cycles and other cycles very intensively in the 90s. They ain't worth a crap
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2020, 04:33:54 PM
April 1, 2020
Quote
10:11 am: IMF says coronavirus crisis requires 'wartime' policy response
The International Monetary Fund said in a blog post that governments should approach the pandemic as if it is war by providing key supplies to the health care sector, cash transfers to individuals who lost their jobs and "exceptional support" like wage subsidies to private companies. The IMF said "greater intervention from the public sector" is warranted while the pandemic lasts. The Fund predicts the "war" phase of the pandemic will endure "at least" one to two quarters. — Schulze

9:31 am: Stocks start the quarter lower, Dow down 850 points
U.S. stocks started the second quarter in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 850 points at the opening bell on Wednesday. The S&P 500 fell 3.7% and the Nasdaq Composite fell about 3.1%. — Fitzgerald

8:50 am: Second worst start to the quarter ever?
 The S&P 500 is poised to open down over 3.5% this morning and if those numbers hold through the close it would be the second worst start to a quarter in the history of the S&P 500, according to Bespoke Investment Group. The only quarter that was worse was the first trading day of 1932 when the S&P 500 kicked off the quarter with a decline of 6.9%. The only other quarter where the S&P 500 declined more than 3% was in October 1998 during the Russian debt crisis and the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 secured their worst first quarter on record on Tuesday. – Fitzgerald

8:28 am: What typically happens after the Dow suffers such a bad first quarter
The Dow Jones Industrial Average just posted its worst first quarter on record after the coronavirus pandemic sparked a historic sell-off. CNBC looked at the top 15 worst first quarters in history for the 30-stock benchmark, to get an idea of how markets fare the rest of the year after a brutal first three months. On average, the Dow managed to pare most of the first-quarter losses during the remainder of the full year. However, the blue-chip average tends to still finish the year in the red, with a median annual loss of 3.5%, according to CNBC's analysis. — Li

7:58 am: Mortgage applications to buy a home drop 24% YoY
Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 11% last week and were 24% lower than last year as the coronavirus dents the spring housing market. Real estate agents and homebuilders have reported a sharp drop in buyer interest, and open houses and model homes are shuttering. While potential home buyers are backing away, more borrowers are refinancing to save money on monthly payments. Driven entirely by refinancing, total mortgage application volume increased 15.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index. Volume was 67% higher than one year ago, when interest rates were higher. After rising for two weeks, mortgage rates plunged to the lowest level in the MBA's survey. —Stevens, Olick

“Two weeks” ::)
Quote
7:56 am: Trump tells Americans to brace for 'very, very painful two weeks' ahead
President Donald Trump warned Americans of "very, very painful two weeks" ahead as the coronavirus cases are expected to surge in the U.S. "This could be a hell of a bad two weeks. This is going to be a very bad two, and maybe three weeks. This is going to be three weeks like we've never seen before," Trump said at a White House press conference Tuesday. White House officials are projecting between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the U.S. with coronavirus fatalities peaking over the next two weeks. "When you look at night, the kind of death that has been caused by this invisible enemy, it's incredible." —Li
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/stock-market-today-live.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: gerontocrat on April 01, 2020, 10:28:13 PM
I'm a great believer in the US (baseball) saying - "Three strikes and you're out"

My guess is maybe

2008-2010 = Strike 1. Financial crisis. Fixed by debt moving from private sector to public sector.
The lesson is not learnt.
The merry-go-round gets back into gear stacking up debt used for share buybacks, dividends & management rewards + yet more junk bonds.

2020-2021 = Strike 2. Covid-19 + Oil Price War
Even huger increase in Public Debt as Uncle Tom Cobley & All are bailed out.
Trump, Russia and Saudi Arabia eventually lose their nerve and cobble together some sort of fix.
The whole structure totters, but does not fall.
Again, the lesson is not learnt. BAU (sort of) resumes.

20??  Something from Left Field = Strike 3.
Insert consequences here.....
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on April 01, 2020, 10:59:30 PM
In reality the first strike was 2001-2003, with Sep 11 serving as an excuse, but really caused by the overhang of the stock bubble of the 1990s. Fixed by sharp deep lowering of interest rates to near-zero, sparking a massive debt bubble and housing bubble stalling in 2005-2007 and ending with the subprime crisis of 2008.

All these strikes stem from the inability of those in power to withstand a recession in the real economy, or (even worse for them) a downturn in the stock and bond markets, no matter how irrationally high they climbed previously.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on April 01, 2020, 11:39:25 PM
Isn´t it quaint how all strikes also relate to us managing stuff badly?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 02, 2020, 12:06:57 PM
Coronavirus-triggered recession likely to be deeper than 2008 financial crisis, analyst says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-triggered-recession-likely-deeper-160949960.html
Quote
The economic pain and job losses triggered by the coronavirus pandemic will likely be worse than the 2008 financial crisis — and it could take the U.S. years to recover from the downturn, according to a new analysis.

As the virus outbreak forces an unprecedented shut down of large swaths of the economy, GDP is expected to plunge 5.4 percent in 2020, according to a forecast published by IHS Markit economists Nariman Behravesh and Elisabeth Waelbroeck-Rocha. In 2009, at the height of the worst recession since the Great Depression, GDP dropped by about 2.5 percent.

“It will likely take two to three years for most economies to return to their pre-pandemic levels of output,” they wrote. “More troubling is the likelihood that, because of the negative effects of the uncertainty associated with the virus on capital spending, the path of potential GDP will be lower than before. This happened in the wake of the global financial crisis.”
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on April 02, 2020, 01:38:50 PM
This is an interesting backgrounder that is, while one year old, quite relevant to the current economic predicament and the responses we are seeing:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-03-21/modern-monetary-theory-beginner-s-guide
Warren Buffett Hates It. AOC Is for It. A Beginner’s Guide to Modern Monetary Theory


Imagine what this graphic from the article would look like now!

Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 02, 2020, 01:44:03 PM
MMT is already under way and will rule for now. Deficits don't matter, Central Banks will print as much money as we need and the bond market is also dead as it will be regulated by CBanks , just like the Fed did 1942-54, or the japanese do now (yield curve control)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on April 02, 2020, 03:01:47 PM
US Weekly Jobless Claims Double to 6.6 Million
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/02/weekly-jobless-claims.html

Initial jobless claims surged to more 6.6 million last week, the Labor Department said Thursday.

That brings the two-week total to about 10 million due to the coronavirus-induced economic shutdown.

More people have filed for unemployment in the last two weeks than filed in the last six months.

"Not only was the number worse than expected, but with lockdowns becoming stricter and being extended, we should anticipate further surges in jobless claims over the coming weeks," said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106471731-158583072992120200402_ui_claims_march_28.png?v=1585830740?w=720&h=405)

The US now faces the sharpest rise in unemployment in its history, a surge that is already highlighting income inequality across the nation and comes as the global economy goes into a nosedive that is likely to exacerbate the situation in the months ahead.

The US Department of Labor calculates US unemployment, just 3.5% in February, has already reached 17% in just two weeks.

With large parts of the US now on lockdown, millions working in retail, restaurants, travel, hotels and leisure industries have lost their jobs and the losses are spreading. Oil and gas companies are laying off workers as oil prices collapse and engineering firms including General Electric are cutting staff as the airline industry grinds to a halt.

William Rodgers, former chief economist at the US Department of Labor, and currently, professor of public policy at the Bloustein School for Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University, expects to see sharp regional and racial differences in unemployment emerge.

Alongside a 19% unemployment rate for African Americans, he calculates the unemployment rate for Latinx workers has risen to 17% from 4.4% and teen unemployment has hit 25%, just weeks into the US crisis.

Rodgers also expects a widening gap in unemployment rates across the country. In Louisiana, he predicts unemployment could rise to 44.9% (from 5.3%) as oil and gas production are hit by falling oil prices and tourism to New Orleans, currently in the midst of one of the country’s worst coronavirus outbreaks, dries up.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 03, 2020, 12:25:07 PM
10 Signs the U.S. Is Heading for a Depression
https://www.unz.com/mwhitney/10-signs-the-u-s-is-heading-for-a-depression/
Quote
1– Unemployment is off-the-charts
2– Service Sector has been walloped by the virus
3– Economic carnage extends across sectors
4– The Bloodbath on Wall Street continues
5– Struggling consumers can no longer carry the US economy
6– Americans continue to stockpile food
7– Most Americans have no savings
8– Household debt is at an all-time high
9 — Many businesses might not survive long enough to get stimulus
10– Food banks are seeing a sudden, sharp rise in demand
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on April 03, 2020, 12:49:52 PM
I'm not sure that our present system can survive this particular black swan.
Let's hope that whatever follows is more equitable than the dog eat dog system we have.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 03, 2020, 01:07:58 PM
BTW, a global pandemic is very much not a black swan, but an expected event (if anyone had listened to the experts).

Quote
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on April 03, 2020, 01:35:33 PM
Yeah well if governments, health care systems and economies get caught with their pants down as if it was utterly unexpected, it might as well be.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 03, 2020, 01:39:39 PM
Nah, that the tumps of this world are ignorant, stupid, and incompetent also does not come as a surprise at all.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on April 03, 2020, 01:48:25 PM
Exactly. All I'm saying is that the criminal lack of preparedness is having the same effect as if they could not have seen it coming. Of course they should have.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on April 03, 2020, 02:32:47 PM
I wish that Trump was the only fool in charge.
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 03, 2020, 04:42:53 PM
U.S.:  Jobs may not come totally back for years, all depending on how small businesses weather this storm
Quote
Zandi said 10% of small companies with fewer than 500 employees could fail. A new poll of small businesses by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and MetLife, conducted in late March, found one in four small businesses say they are two months or less from closing permanently amid the economic downturn caused by the virus. One in 10 are less than one month away from permanently closing. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/jobs-may-not-come-totally-back-for-years-all-depending-on-how-small-businesses-weather-this-storm.html

——
"We don't know how many businesses will survive this period of forced shutdown. We don't know how many will come back, and that is critical to the question of how fast people can get back to work at the end of this, if they can get back to work at the end of it at all."

US jobless claims could soon exceed 8 million, economist projects
Quote
He also highlighted the differences in policy between the U.S. and Europe, which has broadly implemented aggressive employment subsidies to furloughed workers.

"It has simply been that businesses, unlike in Europe, haven't been able to enjoy these sorts of job retention schemes where people have been kept on payrolls even though they haven't got anything to do," Shepherdson suggested.

By contrast, U.S. policy has allowed workers to be laid off but offered increased unemployment benefits for an extended period of time, which is why such a huge number of claims are beginning to roll in stateside. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/us-jobless-claims-could-soon-exceed-8-million-economist-projects.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on April 03, 2020, 06:09:39 PM
30,000 laid off as Kenya flower growing comes to a halt . This is just the start . No benefits or cheques from Donald Duck to come . Hunger and despair . Similar I'm sure happening in Colombia where flowers competed with cocaine as a source of employment and foreign currency . God help everyone ... b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on April 03, 2020, 06:13:36 PM
just after losing the battle for a 3rd runway , Heathrow announces the closure of one of two it has .. a changing world .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 03, 2020, 07:50:17 PM
"It's Not Like We Have a Massive Recession or Worse," Says Trump After 10 Million Lost Their Jobs in Two Weeks

Link >> https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/03/its-not-we-have-massive-recession-or-worse-says-trump-after-10-million-lost-their
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on April 03, 2020, 08:32:40 PM
In Africa 50 % of all jobs will be lost permanently if it keeps spreading. At least that's what economists say. And probably it's possible.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 03, 2020, 09:05:08 PM
. Similar I'm sure happening in Colombia where flowers competed with cocaine as a source of employment and foreign currency . God help everyone ... b.c.

Thank God then, that at least coca production will remain!
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: KiwiGriff on April 04, 2020, 12:19:55 AM

Quote
« Reply #186 on: March 21, 2020, 07:20:20 AM »
Out on  a limb.
Griff expects the Dow and other metrics to settle on 50% of their highs .


Dow 15,000 very likely as coronavirus pandemic hits U.S. economy: strategist
Yahoo FinanceApril 4, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-15000-very-likely-as-coronavirus-pandemic-hits-us-economy-strategist-181857580.html
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on April 04, 2020, 04:51:41 AM
In Africa 50 % of all jobs will be lost permanently if it keeps spreading. At least that's what economists say. And probably it's possible.

Actually that is BS. How would you lose jobs permanently?

During the Black death all kinds of things changed. Women did mens jobs until the population rebounded then they got removed again. Also people moved into the high death areas (the cities) because they gained more despite the risk.

It´s not just nature that abhors a vacuum.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: be cause on April 04, 2020, 06:10:14 AM
from milk pouring down the drains in the USA to Euro billions of fresh fruit and veg being dumped in Europe , we are sleepwalking into the real catastrophe .. global famine .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 04, 2020, 07:42:23 AM
In Africa 50 % of all jobs will be lost permanently if it keeps spreading. At least that's what economists say. And probably it's possible.

Actually that is BS. How would you lose jobs permanently?


I agree. Most of these countries have no defenses against the virus so based on all models it will sweep over them very quickly, in 2-3 months. Their population is young, so they will lose many, but economically no significant losses either in workforce or capital. Their economy will very quickly rebound.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on April 04, 2020, 12:40:09 PM
In Africa 50 % of all jobs will be lost permanently if it keeps spreading. At least that's what economists say. And probably it's possible.

Actually that is BS. How would you lose jobs permanently?

During the Black death all kinds of things changed. Women did mens jobs until the population rebounded then they got removed again. Also people moved into the high death areas (the cities) because they gained more despite the risk.

It´s not just nature that abhors a vacuum.

For what reason africa is africa ? Why is there an unemploymend rate of 3 % in some countries, and other countries have an unemploymend rate of 30 % ?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 04, 2020, 03:17:50 PM
Quote
How Things Work (@ThingsWork) 4/3/20, 2:59 PM
These are the US unemployment claims in their historical context
https://twitter.com/thingswork/status/1246150462073536512
Neat gif at the link draws a graph starting 1967; ends with the image below.

https://twitter.com/wr4nygov/status/1246222506761084928
Recent U.S. federal deficit graph below.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 04, 2020, 04:35:01 PM
United Airlines cuts 80% of capacity, expects bigger reduction in May
Published: April 3, 2020 at 6:31 p.m. ET
Quote
United Airlines Holdings Inc. … announced huge capacity cuts and expects more to come. …  In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, United said it has cut about 80% of its capacity in April with even larger cuts expected in May. In the meantime, United said it will evaluate and cancel flights on a rolling 90-day basis until demand recovers.

The airline said it is losing more than $100 million a day in revenue and that it expects fourth-quarter revenue to be down at least 30% from the year-ago period. Crain's Chicago Business reported late Friday that United has also filed for a federal grant in order to keep paying employees. United shares are down 74% for the year, while the S&P 500 index is down 23%.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/united-airlines-cuts-80-of-capacity-expects-bigger-reduction-in-may-2020-04-03
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on April 04, 2020, 04:50:07 PM
We don't have to start working the next months. I work with a family company. And the owner is already 2 weeks in intensive care, with corona . And he's not doing well. Even if he makes it, it will take a long time to recover.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on April 04, 2020, 05:54:59 PM
And they will all follow. Because i think there is a big chance that New York is just the beginning. And by keeping all the state borders open. The virus has everything it needs to spread. https://www.rt.com/business/484952-tesla-cuts-contractors-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 06, 2020, 06:41:50 PM
Pick a letter.

Janet Yellen says second-quarter GDP could decline by 30% and unemployment is already at 12%-13%
Quote
Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen told CNBC on Monday the economy is in the throes of an “absolutely shocking” downturn that is not reflected yet in the current data.

If it were, she said, the unemployment rate probably would be as high as 13% while the overall economic contraction would be about 30%.

“If we had a timely unemployment statistic, the unemployment rate probably would be up to 12 or 13% at this point and moving higher,” Yellen told CNBC’s Sara Eisen during a “Squawk on the Street” interview. She said gross domestic product is down “at least 30% and I’ve seen far higher numbers.”

Those numbers, she said, look like a depression though they were “in very different form” from the Great Depression.

“This is a huge, unprecedented, devastating hit, and my hope is that we will get back to business as quickly as possible,” she added.

However, the former central bank leader expressed some doubt as to whether the U.S. recovery will look like a “V,” where the sharp and sudden downturn will be followed by an aggressive upturn once the economy is reopened after dealing with the coronavirus.

“I think a ’V’ is possible, but I am worried that the outcome will be worse and it really depends to my mind on just how much damage is down during the time that the economy is shut down in the way it is now,” Yellen said.

That will be determined by whether employers can bring workers back quickly and if consumers aren’t too badly damaged to return to spending once social distancing associated with the coronavirus is rolled back.
...
“The more damage of that sort is done, the more likely we are to see a ’U,’ and there are worse letters like ’L,’ and I hope we don’t see something like that,” Yellen said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/janet-yellen-says-second-quarter-gdp-could-decline-by-30percent-and-unemployment-is-already-at-12percent-13percent.html


——
U.S. small-business rescue loan program enters fourth day plagued by technical problems
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-stimulus-banks/u-s-small-business-rescue-loan-program-enters-fourth-day-plagued-by-technical-problems-idUSL4N2BU38R

——
Brazil small business credit lines to run out in two months -Itau CEO
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-brazil-itau-unibco-hl/update-1-brazil-small-business-credit-lines-to-run-out-in-two-months-itau-ceo-idUSL1N2BU0TG
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 08, 2020, 02:41:07 PM
Why This Downturn Will Be as Bad (or Worse) than the Great Depression
https://www.nestmann.com/why-this-downturn-will-be-as-bad-or-worse-than-the-great-depression
Quote
Many economists are rightly concerned about the trillions of dollars the federal government is borrowing to cope with the crisis. But state, county, and local governments will otherwise be in truly dire straits. State and local tax revenues are already plummeting. Unlike Uncle Sam, these governmental entities can’t print money or create it out of thin air. Revenues from income taxes, sales taxes, and property taxes will evaporate, forcing instant austerity.

The more than 5,500 state and local government pension funds that are heavily invested in stocks will experience even steeper losses as the market falls further. Many of these plans are already experiencing a funding crisis.

When the quarantines end, you’ll emerge into a world you’ll find almost unrecognizable, with widespread shortages, spiked unemployment, and a much weaker economy. Tens of millions of Americans will permanently lose their jobs, and hundreds of thousands of businesses are likely to be driven into bankruptcy. And if you think homelessness is a crisis today, just wait until the unemployment rate hits 30%.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 12:28:03 AM
The worst economic collapse ever?
https://gnseconomics.com/2020/04/08/the-worst-economic-collapse-ever/
Quote
These fragilities, combined with the massive economic impact of the coronavirus, leads us to our most pessimistic scenario.

In it we assume that

Many governments will not be prudent enough in suppression measures, which will lead to severe global pandemic peaking in summer.
Due to the worsening outbreak and delays in containment, suppression measures will eventually be prolonged and they become draconian (“Wuhan style”).
The massive stimulus measures enacted by governments and central banks will be ineffective in providing support for the economy, as the tardy application of draconian suppression measures lock people at home in several key countries of the global economy for a prolonged period of time.
Global economic activity plunges to never-before-seen lows.
European banking sector breaks.
Eurozone unravels violently.
China ‘lands hard’.
Global financial system collapses.
A systemic crisis engulfs the world.
A systemic crisis simply means that the banking sector and financial markets collapse. In practice, this implies that most banking services will stop and funding through financial markets will cease. This also means that the monetary system is likely to collapse (see Q-Review 4/2019 for a detailed explanation)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 12:30:07 AM
Peter Schiff: People Are Still Too Focused on the Pin and Not the Bubble
https://schiffgold.com/interviews/peter-schiff-people-are-still-too-focused-on-the-pin-and-not-the-bubble/
Quote
Christy reiterated that the tail of the coronavirus is very long and will be very long-lasting. It won’t be a V-shaped recovery as many seem to expect. We have both a severe supply shock that is morphing into a demand shock.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 12:34:13 AM
Thinking Outside of the “V” Shaped Recovery Box
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/thinking-outside-of-the-v-shaped-recovery-box/
Quote
If history teaches us one thing, it is that significant, life-altering events are rarely if ever followed by a quick return to normality. In this article, we raise a few considerations that may make you reconsider popular economic narratives. Today, the importance for investors to think outside of the box cannot be overstated. Or to put it another way, the parameters of “the box” have likely changed and, if so, we should be cognizant of those changes in our decision making.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: TerryM on April 09, 2020, 01:54:47 AM
Calm down Tom.


We're all in a bad place. Repeating right wing BS just distracts from the very real problems that some will face as this pandemic continues.
Terry

Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 01:59:30 AM
OK, TerryM.
We will see. But just because they are right wing doesn't mean they aren't right.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on April 09, 2020, 02:00:58 AM
Agreed Terry.  While we may be headed for a recession, I seriously doubt we will come close to approaching the despair of the great depression.  Economists are inherently bad at predicting these type of events anyway.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 09, 2020, 09:53:15 AM
To create a real depression, ie. long-lasting recession with contiunuously elevated unemployment you need bad policy mistakes. I do not see that happening now
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 09, 2020, 10:00:41 AM
just because they are right wing doesn't mean they aren't right.

That made me laugh way harder than it should...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 10:44:43 AM
To create a real depression, ie. long-lasting recession with contiunuously elevated unemployment you need bad policy mistakes. I do not see that happening now
The only one on the horizon would be continuing the lockdown too long:
Stephen Moore warns of modern-day 'Great Depression' if economy doesn't reopen soon
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/stephen-moore-warns-of-modern-day-great-depression-if-economy-doesnt-reopen-soon
Quote
“If we go much past May 1, we are facing a potential Great Depression scenario,” Moore said during a radio interview with New York City's 970 AM.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on April 09, 2020, 10:50:09 AM
Lufthansa has grounded 95% of it's fleet and is losing a million euros per hour.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-lufthansa-aid/lufthansa-ceo-says-its-seeking-state-aid-in-germany-other-countries-idUSKCN21Q30I

I read elsewhere that they don't expect demand for air travel to reach pre-covid levels for several years.

I personally expect only the airlines with rich and generous owners (=governments) will survive the crisis. Taxpayers will once again foot the bill. I, for one, will not be missing cheap air travel. Sad for the employees and employees of related industries, though.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 09, 2020, 01:55:54 PM
I read elsewhere that they don't expect demand for air travel to reach pre-covid levels for several years.

It all depends on the vaccine. If we have one by fall/winter, cheap air travel will be back big time. To change this bad habit of cityhopping you need financial incentives (ie. more expensive tickets). As long as tickets are this cheap, people will keep going to flying to other cities for the weekend. Why wouldn't they?

If no vaccine, then travel will definitely be curtailed
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: dnem on April 09, 2020, 03:24:16 PM
Well, I guess we'll be getting a pretty good test of "modern monetary theory":

Tally of Unemployed Workers Surges by 6.6 Million: The Federal Reserve announced that it would pump up to $2.3 trillion into the economy.


The Federal Reserve said it could pump $2.3 trillion into the economy through new and expanded programs it announced on Monday, ramping up efforts to help companies and state and local governments suffering financially amid the coronavirus. The central bank said it will use Treasury Department funds recently authorized by Congress to buy municipal bonds and expand corporate bond-buying programs to include some lower-rated and riskier debt.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: The Walrus on April 09, 2020, 03:25:05 PM
To create a real depression, ie. long-lasting recession with contiunuously elevated unemployment you need bad policy mistakes. I do not see that happening now
The only one on the horizon would be continuing the lockdown too long:
Stephen Moore warns of modern-day 'Great Depression' if economy doesn't reopen soon
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/stephen-moore-warns-of-modern-day-great-depression-if-economy-doesnt-reopen-soon
Quote
“If we go much past May 1, we are facing a potential Great Depression scenario,” Moore said during a radio interview with New York City's 970 AM.

That is the reason that we need a well coordinated and reasonable solution to restarting the economy.  The longer the lockdown, the harder this becomes.  While painful and necessary at the moment, there will come a time when a lockdown will do more harm than good (as mentioned in your link).  We need intelligent and competent people to recognize and enact this process.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Alexander555 on April 09, 2020, 08:16:29 PM
Over here in Belgium they are talking to reopen the economy as soon as possible. And we just had one of the days with the highest new cases. Would reopening in reality be reopening. Or just muddling from month to month, with new clusters everywhere. I think they are going to ruin it. That would be the same motivation why we are in trouble in the first place.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on April 10, 2020, 03:43:49 AM
Well, I guess we'll be getting a pretty good test of "modern monetary theory":

Tally of Unemployed Workers Surges by 6.6 Million: The Federal Reserve announced that it would pump up to $2.3 trillion into the economy.


The Federal Reserve said it could pump $2.3 trillion into the economy through new and expanded programs it announced on Monday, ramping up efforts to help companies and state and local governments suffering financially amid the coronavirus. The central bank said it will use Treasury Department funds recently authorized by Congress to buy municipal bonds and expand corporate bond-buying programs to include some lower-rated and riskier debt.
It buggers me to no end that the Fed always insists on pumping the money into helping those who leveraged the most in the "good" times, and saving those who lent them the money irresponsibly.
The Fed/government should announce that all debts are the responsibility of those that sold the bonds, and all losses belong to the investors in these bonds. Corporations that default on their bonds will see their stock go to zero.
However to avoid job losses (the supposed purpose of these pumpings) the government will take over the operations of the defaulting corporations and eventually sell the operation intact to the highest bidder.
Or something like that.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on April 10, 2020, 04:37:37 AM
Worst Economic Crisis Since 1930s Depression, IMF Says
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-52236936

The coronavirus pandemic will turn global economic growth "sharply negative" this year, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned.

Kristalina Georgieva said the world faced the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

She forecast that 2021 would only see a partial recovery.

Earlier this week, a UN study said 81% of the world's workforce of 3.3 billion people had had their place of work fully or partly closed because of the outbreak.

Ms Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, made her bleak assessment in remarks ahead of next week's IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings.

... "Just three months ago, we expected positive per capita income growth in over 160 of our member countries in 2020," she said.

"Today, that number has been turned on its head: we now project that over 170 countries will experience negative per capita income growth this year."

She added: "In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression."

"I stress there is tremendous uncertainty about the outlook. It could get worse depending on many variable factors, including the duration of the pandemic,"
she said.

---------------------------

Junk Bond Prices Rally After Fed Offers Lifeline to Riskier Credits
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN21R2HC

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Prices on U.S. high-yield bond exchange-traded funds and individual junk-rated issues like Ford Motor Co (F.N) and Macy's Inc (M.N) soared on Thursday after the Federal Reserve announced it would expand its corporate bond-buying program to include some speculative-grade debt.

Analysts were especially encouraged by news the Fed would support a broad range of junk debt by purchasing shares of exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

"Solvency pressure on smaller businesses has been somewhat alleviated now that the Fed signaled they will buy some junk-rated corporate debt."

---------------------------

Fed Expands Its Shopping List to Include Junk Bonds
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/09/fed-fires-an-even-bigger-bazooka-expands-its-shopping-list-to-include-junk-bonds.html

The Federal Reserve dramatically expanded its efforts to save the economy, even adding junk bonds to the list of assets it can buy, as a wave of businesses are anticipated to have trouble surviving the expected recession.

As part of its announcement, the Fed expanded its corporate lending programs to take it into an entirely new area, including ETFs of companies that are rated below investment grade. It had previously announced a program to buy investment-grade corporate debt and ETFs. It also will now accept triple-A-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities and collateralized loan obligations as part of its Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility, first created in the financial crisis.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 10, 2020, 12:34:21 PM
Nancy Pelosi says it's unclear when US economy can reopen — 'We could have a depression'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/nancy-pelosi-says-the-us-could-have-a-depression.html
Quote
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi steered clear of offering a timeline to open the U.S. economy, saying hopefully it'll be "soon."
"This is an era of entrepreneurship like none we've ever seen before because of the challenge to small businesses," she said of the coronavirus pandemic's effect.
"We could have a depression because so many people are out of work, and that's why we have to get the system really energized and working," she said in a "Mad Money" interview.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 10, 2020, 03:48:08 PM
From:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1248515852653211648

https://twitter.com/nichegamer/status/1248516254119464960
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 10, 2020, 08:49:41 PM
Many Americans say coronavirus stimulus won't help with one month of household bills
Most respondents still regard the money as important for their financial health on some level.
Quote
The coronavirus $2 trillion relief package aimed at helping Americans make ends meet while the economy is virtually shut down moved through Congress quickly. But new statistics show a sizable portion of people will need more money to stay afloat.

A survey conducted by Bankrate reveals that out of the 67 percent of Americans who anticipate receiving a stimulus payment, 31 percent say the check "won't sustain their financial well-being for even a month."

Eight percent of the 31 percent said the money "won't be enough to help them at all" to cover their expenses. ...
https://thehill.com/changing-america/resilience/smart-cities/492188-many-americans-say-coronavirus-stimulus-wont-help

—-
Surgeon General: Most of US won't be ready to open by May 1
April 10, 2020 - 11:58 AM EDT
Quote
Ultimately, even if the administration chooses to relax social distancing guidelines in parts of the country, the decision to loosen restrictions will fall to governors who have put in place their own measures.

Health experts view May 1 as an overly aggressive target, saying the administration needs to have robust testing and contact tracing capabilities in place to avoid and contain future outbreaks while ensuring that U.S. hospitals will not be overwhelmed before relaxing social distancing guidelines.
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/492198-surgeon-general-most-of-us-wont-be-ready-to-open-by-may-1
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: vox_mundi on April 10, 2020, 10:10:17 PM
16 Million People Just Got Laid Off But U.S. Stocks Had Their Best Week In 45 Years
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/E9E26F3C-7B2A-11EA-A5D8-51F91E508D34

(https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-IE205_spx_se_ZH_20200410085613.jpg)

---------------------------

Trump: 'Have to Save the Airlines!'
https://m.investing.com/news/economy/trump-have-to-save-the-airlines-2137179

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that American airlines must be saved, as his administration prepares to give them details this weekend about the terms of a $32 billion payroll grant to offset the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The Republican president, retweeting a Fox News Channel commentator's article on the airline bailout, said, "Not good ... but it is what it is. Have to save the airlines!"

-----------------------------

People? Not so much ...

-----------------------------

Trump: 'I Don’t Believe You Need Ventilators;' as New York Begs to Differ
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/03/26/trump-ventilators-coronavirus-151311

“I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators,” the president said. But city and state officials say they require far more than the administration is providing.

---------------------------

Trump Has “Big Talk” With Putin, Saudi King Salman About Oil
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Has-Big-Talk-With-Putin-Saudi-King-Salman-About-Oil.html

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a “big talk” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman regarding oil production, expressing hopes that a deal on the control of said production would be announced soon.

“We had a big talk as to oil production and OPEC and making it so that our industry does well and the oil industry does better than its doing right now,” Trump said as quoted by Reuters.

--------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: GoodeWeather on April 10, 2020, 10:58:28 PM
Quote
Trump Has “Big Talk” With Putin, Saudi King Salman About Oil
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Trump-Has-Big-Talk-With-Putin-Saudi-King-Salman-About-Oil.html

U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a “big talk” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi King Salman regarding oil production, expressing hopes that a deal on the control of said production would be announced soon.

“We had a big talk as to oil production and OPEC and making it so that our industry does well and the oil industry does better than its doing right now,” Trump said as quoted by Reuters.

--------------------------

They got the global 10M bpd cut deal done today at the G20.  Mexico backed out thursday saying they wouldn't cut 400,000 bpd.  Today Trump convinced them to cut 100,000 and the US would make up the difference cutting 250,000-300,000 bpd.

I loaded up some oil stocks late Thursday in anticipation of this getting done after market hours.  Oil is heading back up and will probably stabilize between 28-30 (WTI price).   
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 11, 2020, 04:28:20 AM
Do you think this recession is going to be deflationary like in the Thirties or inflationary like in the Seventies?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: sidd on April 11, 2020, 06:33:31 AM
Trash the food: supply chains full

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/us-coronavirus-outbreak-agriculture-food-supply-waste

"plowing 5m to 6m pounds of vegetables back into his fields"

“Retail cannot absorb it,”

"dumping excess milk en masse, flooding their fields or pouring it down drains"

“What’s really weird right now in the supply chain is the grocery stores seem to be pretty heavy on product, farmers are throwing away stuff, and food banks are full. We don’t know where the demand lies,”

"food banks are finding it difficult to secure surplus dry and frozen goods. "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/09/us-coronavirus-outbreak-agriculture-food-supply-waste

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: sidd on April 11, 2020, 06:37:59 AM
Business interruption ? Insurance companies say "Screw you"

"cannot account for a situation in which losses are catastrophic and nearly universal."

'You will never be covered, none of your business interruption insurance is going to cover you, because this is a pandemic,'

" insurance trade groups informed the lawmakers this month that they could not cover businesses' losses "

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/10/small-businesses-us-face-coronavirus-doomsday-big-insurers-say-we-cant-save-you-we

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 11, 2020, 08:39:08 AM
Do you think this recession is going to be deflationary like in the Thirties or inflationary like in the Seventies?

I think the analogue for this is the start of WW2 which led to huge deficit spending. So 1929-33 would be equal to 2007-9 and Now we are at the beginning of the 40s. Then, the Fed used yield curve control and debt monetization to support the war effort. It led to inflation as all wars do.

The winner side experiences inlfation in any war, but the losing sides's currency most often becomes trash (anyone remembers the Confederate dollar? the Austro-Hungarian krona? German mark after ww1?... you get the picture)
Title: Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 11, 2020, 01:09:52 PM
This is from Mike Snyder, who is admittedly right wing. However, I am posting a link to his article because it has a lot of links documenting the food situation in America and, to a lesser extent, Africa.

http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/americas-food-lines-are-being-measured-in-miles-as-desperation-sets-in-all-over-the-country
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: kassy on April 11, 2020, 02:57:43 PM
Tom i moved the post above because the other thread is about consequences of AGW in general and the article is about Covids economic consequences.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 11, 2020, 03:11:01 PM
Sure kassy.
There are always gray areas like that. I once found two books in the library. They were the same title and author but different years (they were yearbooks for something).
They were in two different Dewey Decimal groups...literally the first digit was different.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 12, 2020, 02:30:29 PM
This long article gives a detailed model of how depressions come about. Even if you think it is right wing, please criticize the model, not the messenger:

Welcome to the Greater Depression
https://internationalman.com/articles/welcome-to-the-greater-depression/
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: bluice on April 12, 2020, 02:57:04 PM
Tom, the writer says that ” My answer, in brief, is that the Greater Depression is almost entirely due to the intervention of government into the economy. ”

Therein lies the problem with these right-wing libertarian theories. In their fantasyland all problems are caused by governments interfering the economy, and I literally mean all problems. However nothing in the real world supports that. It is simply an attempt to try and twist reality to match a peculiar political agenda.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 12, 2020, 03:33:48 PM
Tom, the writer says that ” My answer, in brief, is that the Greater Depression is almost entirely due to the intervention of government into the economy. ”

Actually the Great Depression was caused by NON-intervention by the government. Due to the peculiarities of the gold standard this led to a cascade of bank failures. Also, they kept trying to balance the budget instead of upping spending. Their failure to intervene led to disaster.

Read the book Golden fetters:
https://www.amazon.com/Golden-Fetters-Depression-1919-1939-Development/dp/0195101138

(and don't believe everything the Austrian School of Economics states...they are right about many things but not everything)
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 12, 2020, 03:54:43 PM
How likely is it that CEOs of megacorps who are billionaires will get the lion’s share of the government money and the taxpayers who provide it will get crumbs, and that we will learn nothing and have to do this all over again ten times bigger in a decade?
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: oren on April 12, 2020, 04:06:48 PM
Extremely likely, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 12, 2020, 07:15:09 PM
Smithfield shutting U.S. pork plant indefinitely, warns of meat shortages during pandemic
Quote
CHICAGO, April 12 (Reuters) - Smithfield Foods, the world’s biggest pork processor, said on Sunday it will shut a U.S. plant indefinitely due to a rash of coronavirus cases among employees and warned the country was moving “perilously close to the edge” in supplies for grocers.

Slaughterhouse shutdowns are disrupting the U.S. food supply chain, crimping availability of meat at retail stores and leaving farmers without outlets for their livestock.

Smithfield extended the closure of its Sioux Falls, South Dakota, plant after initially saying it would idle temporarily for cleaning. The facility is one of the nation’s largest pork processing facilities, representing 4% to 5% of U.S. pork production, according to the company.

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem said on Saturday that 238 Smithfield employees had active cases of the new coronavirus, accounting for 55% of the state’s total. Noem and the mayor of Sioux Falls had recommended the company shut the plant, which has about 3,700 workers, for at least two weeks.

“It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running,” Smithfield Chief Executive Ken Sullivan said in a statement on Sunday. “These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain, first and foremost our nation’s livestock farmers.” ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-usa-meatpacking-idUSL2N2C0032
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 12, 2020, 07:31:24 PM
One thing is likely though: as this recession shapes up to be bigger than any we have seen , at least unemployment-wise, and since we know that politicians' popular support correlates well with economic performance/wages/employment, etc (remember "it's the economy , stupid!" ?), this means that many, if not most ruling parties/presidents, etc. will lose the upcoming elections due to popular discontent (unless the economy improves very much very fast).
Trump will lose power, Bolsonaro as well, and I wouldn't even be sure that Putin stays on. Recessions like this make a clean sweep usually...
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 12, 2020, 07:38:00 PM
... Bolsonaro [loses power] as well ...

For him, it's already beginning!

Brazil army report calls for isolation to slow coronavirus, contradicting Bolsonaro

Link >> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-army/brazil-army-report-calls-for-isolation-to-slow-coronavirus-contradicting-bolsonaro-idUSKBN21O35X

Not too sure about the other ones.
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: El Cid on April 12, 2020, 09:25:21 PM
... Bolsonaro [loses power] as well ...

Not too sure about the other ones.

Having studied economic history extensively, one recurring theme is that big recessions almost always lead to serious political upheaval and change at the top and often even to (often unthinkable) systemic/regime change.

But we shall see how it turns out this time
Title: Re: Global recession
Post by: blumenkraft on April 12, 2020, 09:29:38 PM
In the US, money buys elections. Trump ensures that the concentration of wealth can and will go on. The rich will do anything in their power to keep it like that. This is why i'm skeptical here.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on April 12, 2020, 11:23:35 PM
I edited the thread title to make clearer that all news about Covid-19s economic fall out can go in here (other thread is about the numbers and masks is in Off Topic).
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 13, 2020, 03:31:14 PM
Food Shortages Ahead? ...

South Dakota: Smithfield pork plant in Sioux Falls, SD, announced Sunday it was closing until further notice. As of Saturday, when there were 430 active coronavirus cases in the state, Smithfield employees accounted for 240 of those. The plant, which employs 3,700, produces 4% to 5% of the country's pork. South Dakota's governor recommended a shutdown of at least two weeks, and employees will be paid for the next two weeks. (Its current inventory will be processed Tuesday with some employees on site.)

Colorado: There are as many as 50 cases at a Colorado JBS USA beef facility; AgWeb reports the Greeley plant will close through Tuesday so it can be cleaned and sanitized

https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-jbs-closes-greeley-beef-plant-cleaning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/worsening-outbreak-at-colorado-meat-plant-impacts-as-many-as-300

Pennsylvania: A Cargill meat packaging facility in Pennsylvania where at least 164 cases have been reported so far closed Tuesday with no indication of when it might reopen, the Citizens' Voice reports. "The number that is even scarier is the many more who are sick and waiting for their test results," says the union president, per the Star Tribune. He estimated as many as 200 others were out sick when the plant closed. Other plants in Pennsylvania have also gone idle, including a JBS USA beef plant, per NPR.

https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/cargill-temporarily-closes-humboldt-plant-1.2616027

https://www.startribune.com/sioux-falls-pork-plant-a-crucial-destination-for-minnesota-hogs-closes-over-covid-19/569508672/?refresh=true

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/07/828873225/meat-processing-plants-suspend-operations-after-workers-fall-ill

Iowa: After more than two dozen confirmed cases among employees of a Tyson Foods pork processing plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, the facility suspended operations last week without saying when they might resume, the Des Moines Register reports. A National Beef Packing plant in the state also suspended slaughter operations so it could move up a cleaning that was originally scheduled for later this month, Reuters reports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2020/04/06/covid-19-outbreak-halts-production-east-iowa-pork-processing-plant/2955922001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meat/two-iowa-meat-plants-close-as-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-idUSKBN21O2J5

Deaths: Two of the Colorado employees have died, as well as one employee at another JBS facility and two workers from a Georgia Tyson Foods plant. "You cannot make sacrifices like this with people’s lives," a Colorado union president says. "People can live without beef."

... "It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running. These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain," Smithfield CEO, Kenneth Sullivan said, per CNN. "The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply."
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 13, 2020, 08:18:48 PM
America should be ready for 18 months of shutdowns in ‘long, hard road’ ahead, warns the Fed’s Neel Kashkari
Quote
Kashkari, while acknowledging the downside of what a prolonged shutdown could mean for the economy, said the U.S., “barring some health-care miracle,” is looking at an 18-month strategy of rolling shutdowns based on what has happened in other countries.

“We could have these waves of flare-ups, controls, flare-ups and controls, until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine,” he said. “We need to find ways of getting the people who are healthy, who are at lower risk, back to work and then providing the assistance to those who are most at risk, who are going to need to be quarantined or isolated for the foreseeable future.”

Looking ahead, Kashkari doesn’t envision a quick rebound for the U.S. economy, which has already suffered more than 16 million job losses in the past three weeks. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/america-should-be-ready-for-18-months-of-shutdowns-in-long-hard-road-ahead-warns-the-feds-neel-kashkari-2020-04-12

——
Amazon to hire 75,000 more employees
Quote
Amazon said it was increasing capacity for grocery delivery from Amazon Fresh and Whole Foods Market "as quickly as possible," with focus on "high-priority" items such as household staples and medical supplies.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-hire-75000-more-employees-boost-pay-increase-investment-to-more-than-500-million-2020-04-13

Amazon to begin allowing third-party sellers to resume shipping nonessential items
April 13, 2020
Quote
Amazon.com Inc. will begin allowing third-party sellers on its platform to ship “nonessential” items to the e-commerce giant this week, a signal that the company is ramping up to meet broader consumer needs, according to people familiar with the matter.

Last month, Amazon made a decision to prioritize so-called essential items such as cleaning products, health-care items and shelf-stable food at its warehouses to meet customer demand. Amazon stopped accepting shipments of items from sellers that didn’t correspond to the shopping needs created by the virus. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/amazon-to-begin-allowing-third-party-sellers-to-resume-shipping-nonessential-items-2020-04-13

—-
Why Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line [stock prices] All Plunged Double Digits on Monday
We won't see cruises start for a while.
Quote
The U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued an order that ceases the operations of cruise ships in waters that the U.S. has jurisdiction over until some pretty hefty conditions are met. The order not to sail will continue until one of three conditions are met, as outlined in this excerpt:

This Order shall continue in operation until the earliest of three situations. First, the expiration of the Secretary of Health and Human Services' declaration that COVID-19 constitutes a public health emergency. Second, the CDC Director rescinds or modifies the order based on specific public health or other considerations. Or third, 100 days from the date of publication in the Federal Register.

Given the spread of COVID-19 and the long duration of cases in countries affected earlier than the U.S., it doesn't seem likely the public health emergency will end soon. So it might be 100 days before cruise ships can board passengers. But even that seems like a moving target given the quickly changing landscape.

I think investors are coming to grips with the fact that it's going to be many months before cruise liners get back to operation. And even when they do, it's not clear that demand will return simultaneously, given the CDC's recommendation not to go on cruises. …
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/13/why-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 05:07:37 PM
"Our results were impacted by a $3.1 billion reserve build, which reflected the expected impact these unprecedented times could have on our customers."

Wells Fargo reports first-quarter Earnings Per Share of just 1 cent as it sets aside more money for credit losses
Quote
... The market drop, along with dimming economic prospects, sparked a flurry of stimulus measures from the government. One of those measures is the Paycheck Protection Program, which allocates nearly $350 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses.

However, Wells capped its participation in the program to $10 billion in loans, citing regulatory constraints.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/14/wells-fargo-reports-first-quarter-eps-of-just-1-cent-as-it-sets-aside-more-money-for-credit-losses.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 05:24:21 PM
Airlines Begin Pulling Passenger Seats To Make Room For Cargo
Quote
With a global shortage of air cargo space and extraordinary demand to move emergency medical supplies, some overseas passenger airlines are taking out the seats on aircraft to make more room for freight.

And U.S. airlines are asking the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for permission to fly cargo in the main deck where passengers normally sit, including the option of removing seats, an industry source familiar with the regulatory situation said.

The new operational configurations require certification by civil aviation authorities who examine structural loads and what mechanisms are employed to secure the cargo.

The decision to turn the airplanes into double-deck freighters underscores the global shortage of air cargo space and the pressure on airlines to find revenue anywhere possible after the coronavirus halted nearly all travel and forced carriers to ground most of their fleets. A month ago, many passenger airlines began offering their aircraft to cargo customers on a charter basis. Then some international carriers began flying cargo-only routes on regular schedules, while others utilized cabin space by putting light boxes in the seats.

The fact that airlines are taking the next step and spending money to remove seats also reflects sky-high airfreight rates that airlines can command and the fact that passenger traffic won't return to precoronavirus levels anytime soon.

Early this month, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) said it would speed up applications for supplemental certificates to temporarily modify passenger cabins with cargo seat bags, which typically are installed onto passenger seats in the evening to carry cargo overnight and are then removed in the morning to allow the cabin to be used for passengers again.…
https://m.benzinga.com/article/15797218
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: TerryM on April 14, 2020, 06:15:07 PM
^^
Masks? - We don' need no Steenking Masks!!


Terry - While contemplating deliveries left on the stoop.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 08:55:36 PM
Fauci says U.S. is ‘not there yet’ on key steps to reopen economy
Fauci says: 
• The U.S. does not yet have the critical testing and tracing procedures needed to begin reopening the nation’s economy, adding a dose of caution to increasingly optimistic projections from the White House.
• “We have to have something in place that is efficient and that we can rely on, and we’re not there yet.”
• May 1 target is “a bit overly optimistic” for many areas of the country.
• Antibody tests are crucial in determining when and how people can go back to work.  The problem: Most of the tests have not yet been proven to work well,
• White House daily briefings are “really draining”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-says-us-is-not-there-yet-on-key-steps-to-reopen-economy-2020-04-14
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 09:31:11 PM
^^
Masks? - We don' need no Steenking Masks!!

Terry - While contemplating deliveries left on the stoop.

Photo caption:
Quote
(Cargo netting system for passenger cabin. (Image: Air Canada)

If only your packages were as old as this photo likely is.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 09:52:21 PM
IMF Sees “Great Lockdown” Recession as Worst Since Depression
April 14, 2020
Quote
The International Monetary Fund predicted the “Great Lockdown” recession would be the steepest in almost a century and warned the world economy’s contraction and recovery would be worse than anticipated if the coronavirus lingers or returns.

 In its first World Economic Outlook report since the spread of the coronavirus and subsequent freezing of major economies, the IMF estimated on Tuesday that global gross domestic product will shrink 3% this year.

That compares to a January projection of 3.3% expansion and would likely mark the deepest dive since the Great Depression. It would also dwarf the 0.1% contraction of 2009 amid the financial crisis.

While the fund anticipated growth of 5.8% next year, which would be the strongest in records dating back to 1980, it cautioned risks are tilted to the downside. Much depends on the longevity of the pandemic, its effect on activity and related stresses in financial and commodity markets, it said.


Even if the IMF’s forecast proves accurate, it said output in both advanced and emerging markets would undershoot their pre-virus trends through 2021, seemingly dashing any lingering hopes of a V-shaped economic rebound from the health emergency. The cumulative loss in global GDP this year and next could be about $9 trillion -- bigger than the economies of Japan and Germany combined, IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said.
...
“Many countries face a multi-layered crisis comprising a health shock, domestic economic disruptions, plummeting external demand, capital-flow reversals and a collapse in commodity prices,” the IMF said. “Risks of a worse outcome predominate.”

The grim projections are a stark reversal from the IMF’s outlook less than two months ago. …


The IMF and World Bank are holding their spring meetings via video conference for the first time ever this week. Their normal in-person meetings typically draw thousands of delegates, observers and journalists from 189 member countries. The program has been pared down to mostly media briefings and private meetings, skipping the typical seminars and public discussions. ...
https://apple.news/AuYnkPYsnRpWyWe1uQhortQ

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-14/imf-says-great-lockdown-recession-likely-worst-since-depression
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 15, 2020, 05:16:47 PM
U.S.
The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: 'The economy is clearly in ruins here'
Quote
Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed the hit to the economy from the coronavirus was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than expected.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever in government data, and New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all time low, declining a shocking 78.2%.

The two economic reports showed the double whammy of state shutdowns in mid-March on two pillars of the economy — the consumer and business. Both reports were even more dire than expected, and foreshadow even worse declines in April's activity, with state shutdowns affecting areas responsible for more than 90% of the economy.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, a record drop, with the only sign of activity at grocery and beverage stores, which saw sales grow by 25.6%. Economists expected an 8% decline in monthly sales. The consumer accounts for 70% of the economy.

"The economy is clearly in ruins here," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. "Nobody is buying cars, down 25.6%, nobody is buying furniture, down 26.8%, and eating and drinking places were down 26.5%."

The economic decline, which started in the first quarter is expected to reach its trough in the second quarter. Economists expect an unprecedented drop of more than 30% in GDP for the second quarter. JPMorgan economists expected a 40% decline in the second quarter, on top of a 10% drop in the first quarter.

But now already negative first quarter GDP forecasts may also worsen, showing the economy began contracting at a rapid pace when businesses closed down, states ordered residents to stay home and President Donald Trump told Americans to stay out of restaurants and practice safe distancing.

March retail sales also showed barely a blip in online purchases, only up 3.1%, though consumers are shopping from home. The Commerce Department acknowledged it had difficulty collecting data as many businesses have shut down. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/the-economic-data-is-even-worse-than-wall-street-feared-the-economy-is-clearly-in-ruins-here.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 15, 2020, 05:43:44 PM
This should come as no surprise to anyone.  The country is closed down.  Making absurd claims that the economy is in ruins based on data during the lockdown is short-sighted at best.  The real test is what happens after the country opens back up. 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: TerryM on April 15, 2020, 06:42:03 PM
^^
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may. I do feel that the system that had supported the world's economic churning has not only proven to be inadequate, its been crashed to the ground like Humpty Dumpty. Like the Hapless Humpty, all the King's Horses & all the King's Men are having one hell of a time trying to unscramble the economic nest egg we all relied on.


America can't count on simply printing money and expecting oil transactions to gobble up the (hyper)inflationary consequences. Oil (energy) sales are drifting away from their pivotal position as the commodity that drives GDP. At $20/bbl lots of energy can move about while relatively few dollars change hands.
With the oil glut few need fists full of greenbacks for purchasing KSA's, or America's fracked up offerings. For a very few Rubles their Quest for Fire may succeed without American vigorish greasing the rails.


If people venture outside they risk death. If people attempt hibernation they'll starve in their dens as electricity, gas, and finally water & food deliveries succumb to the financial realities that demand payment for services and goods.


Can home delivered soup kitchens feed the world? Possibly, it was done successfully in Cuba and averted starvation (and social unrest).


Tighten your seatbelts
The landing won't be smooth
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: harpy on April 15, 2020, 06:48:37 PM
Food Shortages Ahead? ...

South Dakota: Smithfield pork plant in Sioux Falls, SD, announced Sunday it was closing until further notice. As of Saturday, when there were 430 active coronavirus cases in the state, Smithfield employees accounted for 240 of those. The plant, which employs 3,700, produces 4% to 5% of the country's pork. South Dakota's governor recommended a shutdown of at least two weeks, and employees will be paid for the next two weeks. (Its current inventory will be processed Tuesday with some employees on site.)

Colorado: There are as many as 50 cases at a Colorado JBS USA beef facility; AgWeb reports the Greeley plant will close through Tuesday so it can be cleaned and sanitized

https://www.agweb.com/article/covid-19-jbs-closes-greeley-beef-plant-cleaning

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/worsening-outbreak-at-colorado-meat-plant-impacts-as-many-as-300

Pennsylvania: A Cargill meat packaging facility in Pennsylvania where at least 164 cases have been reported so far closed Tuesday with no indication of when it might reopen, the Citizens' Voice reports. "The number that is even scarier is the many more who are sick and waiting for their test results," says the union president, per the Star Tribune. He estimated as many as 200 others were out sick when the plant closed. Other plants in Pennsylvania have also gone idle, including a JBS USA beef plant, per NPR.

https://www.citizensvoice.com/news/cargill-temporarily-closes-humboldt-plant-1.2616027

https://www.startribune.com/sioux-falls-pork-plant-a-crucial-destination-for-minnesota-hogs-closes-over-covid-19/569508672/?refresh=true

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/07/828873225/meat-processing-plants-suspend-operations-after-workers-fall-ill

Iowa: After more than two dozen confirmed cases among employees of a Tyson Foods pork processing plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, the facility suspended operations last week without saying when they might resume, the Des Moines Register reports. A National Beef Packing plant in the state also suspended slaughter operations so it could move up a cleaning that was originally scheduled for later this month, Reuters reports.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2020/04/06/covid-19-outbreak-halts-production-east-iowa-pork-processing-plant/2955922001/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meat/two-iowa-meat-plants-close-as-coronavirus-outbreak-spreads-idUSKBN21O2J5

Deaths: Two of the Colorado employees have died, as well as one employee at another JBS facility and two workers from a Georgia Tyson Foods plant. "You cannot make sacrifices like this with people’s lives," a Colorado union president says. "People can live without beef."

... "It is impossible to keep our grocery stores stocked if our plants are not running. These facility closures will also have severe, perhaps disastrous, repercussions for many in the supply chain," Smithfield CEO, Kenneth Sullivan said, per CNN. "The closure of this facility, combined with a growing list of other protein plants that have shuttered across our industry, is pushing our country perilously close to the edge in terms of our meat supply."

You know what I'm going to do?  Re-stock all my meat in my freezer today.

I have a freezer full of quality meats, but I did eat a couple of packages.

Time to stock up and panic buy meat again.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 15, 2020, 06:51:34 PM
"It's the first time in the history of the IMF that epidemiologists are as important as macro economists for our projections.  We are really hoping our scientists will not disappoint us."

Half of the world has asked the IMF for a bailout, chief says
Quote
The global economic downturn has been so severe that already half of the world has asked the International Monetary Fund for a bailout, the organization's chief said Wednesday.

"This is an emergency like no other. It is not because of bad governors or mistakes," Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC's Sara Eisen on CNBC's "Squawk Alley." "For that reason, we are providing funding very quickly."

"We are asking for one thing only: Please pay your doctors and nurses, make sure that your health [care] systems are functioning, and that vulnerable people and first responders are protected," Georgieva said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/half-of-the-world-has-asked-the-imf-for-a-bailout-chief-says.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 15, 2020, 08:08:13 PM
^^
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may. I do feel that the system that had supported the world's economic churning has not only proven to be inadequate, its been crashed to the ground like Humpty Dumpty. Like the Hapless Humpty, all the King's Horses & all the King's Men are having one hell of a time trying to unscramble the economic nest egg we all relied on.


America can't count on simply printing money and expecting oil transactions to gobble up the (hyper)inflationary consequences. Oil (energy) sales are drifting away from their pivotal position as the commodity that drives GDP. At $20/bbl lots of energy can move about while relatively few dollars change hands.
With the oil glut few need fists full of greenbacks for purchasing KSA's, or America's fracked up offerings. For a very few Rubles their Quest for Fire may succeed without American vigorish greasing the rails.


If people venture outside they risk death. If people attempt hibernation they'll starve in their dens as electricity, gas, and finally water & food deliveries succumb to the financial realities that demand payment for services and goods.


Can home delivered soup kitchens feed the world? Possibly, it was done successfully in Cuba and averted starvation (and social unrest).


Tighten your seatbelts
The landing won't be smooth
Terry

The 3.1% is March sales only.  Many places did not lockdown, until the end of the month.  April will likely be much higher.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on April 16, 2020, 02:35:41 AM
This should come as no surprise to anyone.  The country is closed down.  Making absurd claims that the economy is in ruins based on data during the lockdown is short-sighted at best.  The real test is what happens after the country opens back up.

Well, yes.  But this is pretty clearly going to be a least a couple of months.  During this time, many people will descend into debt and poverty as they can't earn an income, but still need to pay rent, utilities, and food costs.  When the economy opens up, they won't exactly be ready to spend with abandon.  If consumption is deeply muted, then production has to be deeply muted, so employment will be deeply muted.....resulting in deeply muted consumption.

Though I am optimistic about an effective treatment being rolled out fairly soon, I'm not so optimistic about people's jobs, standard of living, and security of housing and food being restored soon.

Another New Deal would be highly appropriate.  And it really should be green.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on April 16, 2020, 02:46:59 AM
I can't imagine that online purchases are up only 3.1%, but be that as it may....

At first blush, that surprised me, too.  But I'd wager that while the *total* online purchases are only modestly up, some segments are drastically down and some strongly up.

Any rational person of means is going to have non-perishable foods delivered via online purchases.  But formerly commonplace online purchases have no rational use.  Who is going to buy fashions or cosmetics, when there is no place to show them off?  Event ticket sales for shows, concerts, and sporting events are down to virtually zero.  Travel and lodging were typically online bookings.

The bigger question to me, then, is how the heck can the food industry shift on a dime to move to UPS/FedEx delivery of the nation's nutritional needs?

I think the preppers and sudden hoarders have not been acting irrationally.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 16, 2020, 04:21:14 AM
Asia's Economic Growth 'To Drop To Zero for First Time In 60 Years'
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/trump-cuts-funding-coronavirus-pandemic-live-updates-200414231400449.html

IMF says the coronavirus pandemic is likely to bring Asia's economic growth to a a standstill for the first time in 60 years.

"These are highly uncertain and challenging times for the global economy. The Asia-Pacific region is no exception. The impact of the coronavirus on the region will be severe, across the board, and unprecedented," says Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF's Asia and Pacific Department.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EVr6W7EXkAAbj17?format=png&name=500x500)

The zero growth projection for Asia is worse than the 4.7 percent average growth rates recorded in the region during the global financial crisis of 2008.

------------------------------------

IMF Says 'Worst Recession Since Great Depression' is Likely
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/imf-worst-recession-great-depression-200414125253286.html

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says the global economy is expected to shrink by three percent this year - the biggest contraction since the Great Depression of the 1930s. G20 nations agreed to suspend debt payments owed to them by the world's poorest countries.

... "It is very likely that this year, the global economy will experience its worst recession since the Great Depression, surpassing that seen during the financial crisis a decade ago," IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath wrote in the foreword for the fund's World Economic Outlook.

Titled 'The Great Lockdown', the IMF's latest report card on the global economy described the coronavirus pandemic as a crisis "like no other" and predicted that world economic output will shrink by three percent this year, before experiencing a partial rebound next year.

https://blogs.imf.org/2020/04/14/the-great-lockdown-worst-economic-downturn-since-the-great-depression/

... "There is extreme uncertainty around the global growth forecast. The economic fallout depends on factors that interact in ways that are hard to predict," the Fund warned, citing the pathway of the pandemic, the efficacy of containment measures, the intensity of supply chain disruptions, credit market freezes, commodity price impacts and changes in consumer behaviour.

Under the Fund's best-case scenario, the world is likely to lose a cumulative $9 trillion in output over two years - greater than the combined gross domestic product (GDP) of Germany and Japan, said Gopinath.

The IMF's forecasts assume that outbreaks of the novel coronavirus will peak in most countries during the second quarter and fade in the second half of the year, with business closures and other containment measures gradually unwound.

A longer pandemic that lasts through the third quarter could cause a further three percent contraction in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021, due to the "scarring" effects of bankruptcies and prolonged unemployment. A second outbreak in 2021 that forces more shutdowns could cause a reduction of five to eight percentage points in the global GDP baseline forecast for next year, keeping the world in recession for a second straight year.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said last week that some $8 trillion in fiscal stimulus being poured in by governments to stave off collapse was not likely to be enough.

The oil price collapse has added insult to the demand injury inflicted by coronavirus containment measures.

... The global economy contracted 0.7 percent at the height of the Great Recession in 2009 - previously the worst downturn since the 1930s - according to IMF data.

Advanced economies now suffering the worst outbreaks of the virus will bear the brunt of the plunge in activity. The US economy will contract 5.9 percent in 2020, with a rebound to 4.7 percent growth in 2021 under the Fund's best-case scenario.

Eurozone economies will contract by 7.5 percent in 2020, with hard-hit Italy seeing its GDP fall 9.1 percent and contractions of 8.0 percent in Spain, 7.0 percent in Germany and 7.2 percent in France, the Fund said. It predicted euro-area economies as a whole would match US growth of 4.7 percent in 2021.

It said some countries may need to turn to temporary limits on capital outflows.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 16, 2020, 11:00:22 AM
The World Economy Is in a Free Fall, Says Felix Zulauf
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/19569/world-economy-free-fall-says-felix-zulauf
Quote
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems. We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen. Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more than double what it was at the last business cycle peak in 2007. And then you go down and your cash flow dries up, and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems. When you have a lot of debt, that means the default risk is going up very high. The central banks are trying to backstop that, but they cannot backstop everything.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 16, 2020, 11:05:31 AM
Economies won’t be able to recover after shutdowns
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/03/31/economies-wont-be-able-to-recover-after-shutdowns/
Quote
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.

Quote
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 16, 2020, 03:39:04 PM
Jobless Claims Total 5.245 Million as 22 Million Positions Have Been Lost In a Month Due to Coronavirus
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/16/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

Weekly jobless claims totaled 5.245 million, the Labor Department reported.

That was a drop of 1.37 million from a week ago but was above estimates for 5 million.

That brings the crisis total to just over 22 million, reflecting a 13.5% drop in household employment, nearly wiping out all the job gains since the Great Recession.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106491550-158704039961220200415_initial_ui_claims_inset.png?v=1587040432?w=720&h=405)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 16, 2020, 03:55:30 PM
The World Economy Is in a Free Fall, Says Felix Zulauf
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/19569/world-economy-free-fall-says-felix-zulauf
Quote
I think this is a decline that has triggered off a lot of problems. We entered this decline with the biggest debt the world has ever seen. Total debt out there in the world relative to GDP is more than double what it was at the last business cycle peak in 2007. And then you go down and your cash flow dries up, and your revenues dry up—that creates all sorts of financial problems. When you have a lot of debt, that means the default risk is going up very high. The central banks are trying to backstop that, but they cannot backstop everything.

Felix also predicted recessions in 2012, 2015, and 2018.  Eventually, he was bound to be right.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 16, 2020, 06:34:47 PM
It took only four weeks for the U.S. economy to wipe out nearly all the job gains in the last 11 years
Quote
“While today’s jobless numbers are down on last week, they still mean that all the job gains since the financial crisis have been erased,” wrote Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “What’s more, with many workers, including those in the gig economy, not included in these numbers, labor market pains may be even worse than these numbers suggest.”

“Concerns for the second half of the year may be underestimated,” she added. “Although governments are looking to lift lockdowns, the re-opening of economies will be only gradual, compounding financial strains for businesses and households, suppressing demand and suggesting a slower economic recovery.” ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/16/us-only-417000-jobless-claims-away-from-losing-gains-since-2009.html

Edit, more:
White House says new small-business loan program is out of money
Quote
A new lending program for small businesses maxed out Thursday morning and stopped accepting claims, but a bitterly divided Congress looked unlikely to address that growing problem as the nation plunged into unemployment levels not seen since the Great Depression.

The Small Business Administration said on its website that the agency “is unable to accept new applications … based on available appropriations funding.”

Republicans and Democrats say more action is needed to build on the massive $2 trillion economic rescue law passed just three weeks ago, but they cannot agree on what to do. The economy continues to weaken but lawmakers are scattered all over the country advancing conflicting proposals and bickering. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/04/16/congress-coronavirus-small-business-trump/
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: TerryM on April 16, 2020, 11:00:43 PM
The Trumpster will have something to say about the American economy at 6:00 PM EDT tonight.


The Canadian Loonie is hovering around 1.40 against the American $, which suits me nicely. With wild spending by both federal governments I expect inflation on both sides of the border.


Inflation is good for those with plenty of stuff, but disastrous for those with savings.


Interesting Times
Terry
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2020, 02:13:45 AM
Worst Recession in 150 Years
https://dailyreckoning.com/worst-recession-in-150-years/
Quote
So when Ken Rogoff talks (or writes), I listen. In his latest article, Rogoff offers a dire forecast for the recovery from the New Depression resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.

He writes, “The short-term collapse… now underway already seems likely to rival or exceed that of any recession in the last 150 years.”

Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2020, 02:16:29 AM
Will it be an Inflationary or Deflationary Depression?
https://internationalman.com/articles/will-it-be-an-inflationary-or-deflationary-depression/
Quote
In any event, the moment of truth is approaching, and there likely will be a titanic struggle between the forces of inflation and the forces of deflation. Each will probably win, but in different areas of the economy.

As a result, we’re likely to see all kinds of prices going up and down, like an elevator with a lunatic at the controls. It will not be a mellow experience.

Editor’s Note: The biggest financial bubble in human history has popped… and the coming financial volatility will be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

It will be an increasingly dangerous time for retirees, savers, and investors.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 17, 2020, 02:22:00 AM
A Pandemic Iceberg Hits the ‘Unsinkable’ U.S. Economy– A Map Ahead
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/a-pandemic-iceberg-hits-the-unsinkable-u-s-economy-a-map-ahead/
Quote
When will people return to work on a large scale? Most people will be reluctant to return to stores or work until they are vaccinated or otherwise assured that others are not contagious. When can we expect all workers to return to work?  Health authorities are planning to clear workers in essential industries already traveling to the office or plant. Next, other workers will need to be cleared for work by taking an antibody test to show if they have had the virus and have recovered or they have been vaccinated. All of these virus programs need to be deployed on a national scale for millions to be tested or vaccinated.  Based on the present chaotic handling of pandemic logistics, we think testing and vaccination programs will take a long time to reach 83% of the population.

Experts predict the earliest date for a preventative rollout is July of 2021. The delay in a rollout will mean a slow, steady rise of limited economic activity into 4th Quarter 2021.  Due to the economic damage from social distancing forcing many businesses to close and high unemployment, consumer spending will be capped. Reduced consumer spending will be a huge drag on economic recovery. In the meantime, the economy will fall into a deep recession from the massive unemployment levels. Corporations are trying to survive debt payments or find loans, and small businesses are caught in a bureaucracy to get crucial SBA loans. During the next 18 months, the markets will be highly volatile, responding to rumors, ideas, and policies that have yet to be funded or implemented. Even those programs which are funded are riddled in bureaucracy and not able to live up to their objectives.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 17, 2020, 08:35:43 AM
America's Finest News Source: Thinking of the children

"now there’s only me—a fool with his pockets full of candy, all for naught"

https://local.theonion.com/lonely-pedophile-wistfully-surveys-deserted-schoolyard-1842883329

sidd
Title: Moved from Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 17, 2020, 09:57:21 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hhf9ktqzxgY

<Moved this video from the lessons thread because it does not actually discuss lessons. BTW it would be nice if there is a short description of the content of the video. Why is it here? Why should i watch it? TIA, K. >
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2020, 03:03:19 PM
The post-pandemic economy — airlines are treated as utilities, banks serve the people and the government runs a jobs program
Quote
The economy is unraveling, and families are in danger. It’s time for the government to step in as it rarely has before

The carnage continues, with 22 million jobless claims in only four weeks. And the Federal Reserve’s forecast of 47 million coronavirus-related job losses may well be an underestimate.

Meanwhile, the $2 trillion CARES Act that Congress passed will not stop the devastation of the labor market. The small business rescue program just tapped out and, even if the legislative standoff is resolved, the queue for loans dwarfed all expectations. As large corporations are showered with loans without strings attached, families have trouble receiving the promised one-time $1,200 checks. House Democrats are now proposing payments of $2,000 a month until employment returns to pre-crisis levels, but we have yet to see a single policy that is actually designed to create jobs.

How big a stimulus would be sufficient to pull the economy out of the abyss? How much should the government spend? If the focus remained on loans, corporate bailouts and emergency cash assistance, we may need to pass a dozen more CARES packages to tackle the many crises that are about to unfold — from bankrupting states, to mass company and household defaults, to insolvent educational institutions and others. And it may still not be enough. The entire economy is unraveling.

Go big
But there is another way. Government can take far more direct measures. Forget about loans and incentives. Forget about the “invisible hand.” Use the visible hand of government and let it do the heavy lifting.

First, government should protect payrolls at all costs, as some European countries are trying to do: The $2 trillion was enough to pay all wages in the U.S. economy for three months (or longer, if we paid a proportion) and hire the unemployed for a full year at living wages.

Second, the government can commit to paying state’s bills associated with the Covid-19 response, as well as for other social programs (Medicaid, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families). Faced with high unemployment and collapsing tax revenues, states are going broke one after another and the federal government could help with critical expenses on education and even public pension contributions. Block grants to states are nice, but how much will be enough? The bottom is falling faster than we can estimate the shortfalls.

Next, the government must shore up the safety net. Allow anyone to enroll in Medicare. Fund non-profits that deliver social services (food banks, elderly care and others). Provide debt relief for students and their families. Forgive student debt and launch a bigger and bolder Pell Grant program than we’ve ever seen before. The next great default wave will be of educational institutions.

Last but not least, mobilize, mobilize, mobilize. Produce masks, equipment and medication. Build hospitals. Hire and train dispatchers, paramedics, nurses and pharmacists. Pay the volunteers. Train and secure personal protective equipment for transportation and sanitation staff, store clerks and distribution center workers.

Start a jobs program
Start planning a post-pandemic jobs program. Imagine how much better prepared we would have been if we had a federal job guarantee. People enrolled in the program would be kept on the payroll and we would have had the institutional infrastructure to put others on the payroll now. Some of those job guarantee workers could have helped with mobilization needs. Others would shelter in place without the threat of layoffs. But in the absence of a job guarantee, it is never too late to start working on one now. Let it be a “green” job guarantee.

Social distancing will be needed for many months after we flatten the curve. In a service economy, government will need to continue supporting educational institutions, the arts and many other sectors. Some sectors may be decimated (e.g., parts of entertainment — concert venues, sports arenas). Others may operate at a significantly reduced capacity. If these sectors are critical (like the airline industry), government should run them as utilities.

Restructure industries
After the pandemic is behind us, the economy will have to be restructured, no doubt. Some sectors will release significant resources and labor. The way to deal with this problem is to crank up other long-neglected sectors and areas of investment after the pandemic (e.g., clean air and water, green infrastructure, etc.). It is never too late to start planning a “Green New Deal” now.

The bloated and over-leveraged financial sector continues to be systemically dangerous, even with its seemingly endless refinancing from the Federal Reserve. The most effective thing government can do for it is give families stable incomes to service their mortgages and contribute to their 401(K)s. If financial firms are unable to remain profitable without highly speculative activities, close them down and reform finance.

The bottom line is this: There seems to be no way out of this economic catastrophe without the government underwriting large parts of the economy. That’s exactly what it did during the Great Depression and WWII. Today, instead of reacting to the multiple crises that loom ahead, it can take direct steps to prevent them. Pay existing bills, help with mobilization efforts and prepare for what comes next.

The question before us is what kind of an economy do we want going forward? What does it mean to protect society, to guarantee economic security, to prepare in the face of pandemics, climate disasters and financial collapses? In a sense, we have an opportunity to start from scratch. And we should seize it.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-post-pandemic-economy-airlines-are-treated-as-utilities-banks-serve-the-people-and-the-government-runs-a-jobs-program-2020-04-17
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 17, 2020, 03:50:43 PM
The government taking over?  I sincerely hope not!
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 17, 2020, 05:00:28 PM
'We May Have to Ration': US Food Banks Face Shortages as Demand Surges
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/17/us-food-banks-over-budget-demand-coronavirus

Food banks face going millions of dollars over budget as they struggle to meet surging demand from those hit hard by mass layoffs caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Across the US, not-for-profit groups are buying truckloads of increasingly expensive food to cope with the sharp increase in the “new needy” – and the dramatic decline in donations from supermarkets left empty by panic shoppers.

The pressures are widespread and growing, according to more than 20 food banks and pantries across 15 states consulted by the Guardian. For example, in Pennsylvania, food banks are spending an extra $1m a week and yet still turning hungry families away.

... “We have enough food for the next month,” warned Lisa Scales, president of Pittsburgh food bank where the money spent buying food has tripled. “With so many businesses shutting, we’re concerned community donations won’t sustain this level.”

As demand escalates, the price of non-perishable staples such as peanut butter, eggs, canned vegetables, beans, pasta, rice and jam is soaring, while supplies are running low with four- to eight-week delays and bottlenecks reported across the supply chain.

The wholesale cost of rice has almost tripled and won’t be delivered until June, according to one Pennsylvania-based distributor that supplies more than 40 food banks. “Canned fruit and veg are very hard to get, rice and pasta is challenging, and costs have gone crazy as manufacturers pay more for labor, food and transport,” said Mike Fellinger.

“If you find rice it’s like gold,” added Ron Mizutani, president of the Hawaii food bank.

... In Las Vegas, drivers of luxury vehicles queued for food boxes. “When you see a Lexus in line at 4am prepared to wait six hours, you know there’s real need,” said Larry Scott from Nevada’s Three Square food bank.

Last week in San Antonio, Texas, an unprecedented 10,000 people showed up in their cars for a pop-up distribution centre – a drive-thru service which typically attracted 400 before the layoffs. That day, 25 semi-trucks of food were handed out, much of it to newly laid off hospitality staff whose last paycheck was already gone, according to Eric Cooper, president of the food bank.

As demand rises, Cooper warns that supplies will run short: “The only thing we can do is ration and give families less … I would challenge our federal government to put systems in place that allow for wasted food to go to families we are feeding. It’s unconscionable.”

... the Department of Agriculture (USDA) has so far refused to fully extend food stamp eligibility using available disaster powers. “This would help tackle hunger and stimulate the economy, but for some reason the USDA isn’t using all the tools in its box,” ... philanthropy is not going to fix this crisis.”
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 18, 2020, 11:59:39 AM
The Next Crisis: Food
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-next-crisis-food/
Quote
I’ve been telling people to “plant a garden” in my daily videos.  There’s a specific sound reason for this.

You may have heard about the lack of workers to plant and harvest veggies, and we’ve read about the shuttering of meat packing plants.

But are you also aware of the ominous rumblings of an increasing number of nations making preparations for the possible loss of food imports?  National ‘food hoarding’ is popping up on my radar screen.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 18, 2020, 01:09:12 PM
Please. I have a nice garden. The thought of feeding my family from it is preposterous. My early greens and lettuce are starting to come in nicely. We had frost the other night. Haven't even put out any summer vegetables. "Plant a garden" is not a viable answer.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 18, 2020, 06:31:46 PM
dnem, I have a garden but it is over an acre. Because I plant heirloom seeds I also have ageless issues like wheat rust. My potatoes crashed but I am planting another crop because there is still time. A garden is keeping alive a dream, that you can provide for your family. It is a lifetime effort and the utility of it, the pounds of food produced, and any $ saved seem hard earned but if, if you were ever forced to feed your family you might be able to do so . In the  destitution  that might arrive with a total depression >1929  the years of gardening and effort may pay off, with knowledge gained from the trials of gardening.  Because the land you lack to farm an acre or two may be readily available but the knowledge of how to do so, or the seeds you will need will surely be missing.
 Seed supply companies are already maxed out and nobody is even hungry yet. They will sell out soon.
Keeping seed, gardening, and cooking your own food are a covenant , that you believe in a future. A future where planting enough to live on is common rather than rare. A place where you pass along your knowledge and the seed you maintained  for a lifetime. Because it might help someone else through .
 
So with modern technology how do we put people with the energy of youth together with the land they need to raise enough to live on? Couldn’t efforts at leasing land and putting people to work on small scale agriculture projects still work ? It is critical infrastructure so no lockdown. There is in reality lots of usable land sitting vacant, lawns, horse pasture, vacant lots , etc. 
 Is hunger a problem that will create some movement back to the land ?  Those miles of cars lined up for food handouts are not a good sign. Is hunger going to change anything ?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 18, 2020, 07:03:53 PM
Thanks Bruce. I did not mean to sound dismissive and I take great pleasure in the food I do produce. But home-based food production has zero chance of helping America through this crisis this growing season in any meaningful way. The most vulnerable are poor and urban (I'm not telling you anything you don't know!) and are already hungry.

But certainly, if a victory garden ethos can arise out of all this as we begin to regain our footing on the other side, that would be wonderful.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 19, 2020, 03:00:28 AM
We must stop thinking in only two dimensions (land) and start thinking in three dimensions: warehouses (or basements), which are less vulnerable to the whims of weather, plus nontraditional protein sources such as insects.  These can be expanded in urban settings close to where the most food is needed.  Farms and gardens are great, for those lucky enough to have them and who manage to have decent harvets, but “agriculture” must evolve to replace that lost by climate change, soil depletion, polluting animal factories, and labor-intensive crops.  A deep recession may accentuate the benefits of such evolution.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 19, 2020, 03:01:38 AM
Coronavirus is killing workers at U.S. factories in Mexico
Quote
Here and across the globe, governments and businesses are weighing the economic costs of shutting down life as usual against the risk of the coronavirus spreading.

That question is particularly consequential in Mexico, where the economy was suffering even before the coronavirus hit.

Alfredo Coutiño, Latin America director for Moody’s Analytics, predicts that Mexico’s economy will contract 6.5% in 2020 and the country will enter into a recession “deeper than that during the 2009 financial crisis.”

Driving the downturn are losses in remittances, a decline in tourism, and — significantly for a country whose economy relies on exports for nearly a fifth of its gross domestic product — a major contraction of the export market. ...
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-04-18/u-s-factories-in-mexico-are-still-open-as-the-coronavirus-spreads-workers-are-dying
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 20, 2020, 12:08:43 AM
Nolan at commondreams: save the capital, kill the workers

"People can be sacrificed—capital is irreplaceable."

"Your willingness to work for very little after this means that you may be valuable enough to make it profitable to not let you die."

https://www.commondreams.org/views/2020/04/09/plan-save-capital-and-let-people-die

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 20, 2020, 03:25:44 PM
US markets haven't priced in a 'significant second wave'
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/us-markets-havent-priced-in-second-wave-of-coronavirus-citi-private-bank.html

Major U.S. stock indexes may have recovered from their recent lows, but Citi Private Bank warned that the worst may not be over.

"In the event that we have a very significant second wave of disease in the United States that cause a further shutdown of the economy ... that clearly is not priced into the market," David Bailin, the bank's chief investment officer, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia."

"The other thing that may not be priced into the market is the fact that this virus may take another 18 to 24 months to really cycle through the globe, and ultimately have a vaccine," he added. —Yen Nee Lee
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 20, 2020, 03:50:02 PM
Survey Reveals Extent of Coronavirus-Related Job Loss, Outsized Impact on Blacks and Latinos
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-survey-reveals-extent-coronavirus-related-job.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/2-surveyreveal.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 20, 2020, 05:09:03 PM
Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Pandemic and Growth
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/04/between-rock-and-hard-place-pandemic.html
Quote
Authorities around the world are between a rock and a hard place: they need policies that both limit the spread of the coronavirus and allow their economies to "open for business." The two demands are inherently incompatible, and so neither one can be fulfilled.
The problem is the intrinsic natures of the virus and the global economy. This virus is highly contagious during its asymptomatic phase, which is long (5 to 20 days), and therefore impossible to control with the conventional tools of identifying people with symptoms and isolating them, and tracking their contacts with others.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2020, 05:55:36 PM
U.S.
”The ability of major companies to receive funding before smaller businesses has emerged as the latest flashpoint in a program that has left many involved dissatisfied since its hurried launch on April 3.”

Shake Shack to return small business loan after uproar
04/20/2020
Quote
Shake Shack plans to return a $10 million loan it received under an emergency small business rescue program, amid a growing backlash against big businesses that got the money before $350 billion in funding lapsed last week.

The burger chain was just one of several large restaurant operators and publicly traded companies that secured tens of millions of dollars in "Paycheck Protection Program" loans before the Trump administration announced Thursday that the funding was exhausted because of the high demand.

Other chains that reported receiving the loans include Potbelly, Ruth's Hospitality Group, Taco Cabana and J. Alexander's. The disclosures infuriated small business owners who were unable to get loans in time. The program, which is intended to avert massive layoffs during the coronavirus pandemic, is focused on businesses with fewer than 500 employees but allowed large restaurant operators to also apply. ...
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/20/shake-shack-to-return-small-business-loan-after-uproar-195928


——
Neiman Marcus could declare bankruptcy this week: report
Quote
Neiman Marcus Group is preparing to file for bankruptcy as soon as this week, Reuters reported Sunday, a casualty of the coronavirus-related economic shutdown. The department-store chain is carrying almost $5 billion in debt and has been forced to temporarily close all its stores and furlough most of its employees due to the pandemic.

Citing people familiar with the matter, Reuters reported the company is close to securing a loan worth hundreds of millions of dollars to keep some of its operations afloat during bankruptcy proceedings.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/neiman-marcus-could-declare-bankruptcy-this-week-report-2020-04-19
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 20, 2020, 11:13:47 PM
United Selling and Leasing Back 22 Planes in Bid to Conserve Cash During Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/coronavirus-united-selling-leasing-back-planes-in-bid-to-conserve-cash.html

United Airlines has struck a deal with an Asian aircraft leasing firm to sell and then lease back 22 aircraft. Neither United nor the Bank of China Aviation revealed the financial terms of the deal announced Sunday morning.

... Earlier this week, United CEO Oscar Munoz said business has essentially dropped to zero. “We expect to fly fewer people during the entire month of May than we did on a single day in May 2019,” Munoz wrote in a note to employees outlining plans to cut its schedule by 90% in May

---------------------------------

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will Likely Leave a Lasting Legacy on Retail: Fewer Department Stores
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/19/a-lasting-legacy-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-fewer-department-stores.html

America’s department stores are on a sinking ship, racing for a lifeboat that might not be big enough for all of them.

For J.C. Penney, the bankruptcy clock is ticking after it skipped a mid-April interest payment. Its turnaround plans have been sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic, which has forced the closure of all of its stores. Macy’s, with liquidity drying up, has tapped advisors at investment bank Lazard and law firm Kirkland & Ellis to explore options that include new financing.  Nordstrom in early April raised $600 million by placing a handful of its real estate assets into a separate company and borrowing against the new entity by issuing bonds.

High-end department store chain Neiman Marcus also on April 15 missed a payment on some of its bonds, according to a letter sent to the retailer’s board from Marble Ridge Capital, which owns a significant portion of the $137.7 million in bonds that mature in October 2021. Neiman Marcus now has until the middle of May to make the interest payment. After that, pending no payment, the company could be pushed into bankruptcy court by its bondholders.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 20, 2020, 11:53:51 PM
Pentagon Urges Mexico to Reopen COVID-Closed Factories That Supply US Weapon Makers
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2020/04/pentagon-urges-mexico-reopen-covid-closed-factories-supply-us-weapon-makers/164756/

The continued flow of various weapons to the Pentagon during the pandemic will depend to a surprising degree on Mexico, the U.S. neighbor frequently criticized by President Trump.

...The Pentagon’s supply-chain dependence on Mexico has grown over the past decade as defense firms large and small outsourced production.

“U.S. and foreign aerospace component suppliers have been increasingly locating production facilities in Mexico,”
the United States International Trade Commission said in a 2013 report. “Lower manufacturing costs (largely due to a lower wage structure), proximity to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in the United States, duty-free access to other important aerospace markets, and a Bilateral Aviation Safety Agreement (BASA) with the United States all contribute to Mexico’s greater appeal compared with other global manufacturing locations.”

The report signaled out Lockheed Martin, Textron, General Dynamics, General Electric, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins (now Raytheon Technologies), as operating subsidiaries in Mexico.

In 2012, Boeing held an event encouraging suppliers to do more business in Mexico; today it relies on PCC Aerostructures in Monterrey, Mexico. Textron, on its website, touts manufacturing work in Mexico.

In recent weeks, Boeing had been forced to stop military manufacturing in Washington state and Pennsylvania. ...

------------------------------

Senate Aid Package Quietly Carves Out Billions Intended for Boeing, Officials Say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/25/boeing-bailout-coronavirus/

Lawmakers have inserted in the Senate’s $2 trillion stimulus package a little-noticed provision aimed at providing billions of dollars in emergency assistance to Boeing, the aerospace giant already under fire for deadly safety lapses in its commercial jets, three people with knowledge of the internal deliberations said.

The Senate package includes a $17 billion federal loan program for businesses deemed “critical to maintaining national security.” The provision does not mention Boeing by name but was crafted largely for the company’s benefit, two of the people said. Other firms could also receive a share of the money, one of the people said.

The carve-out is separate from the $58 billion the Senate package is providing in loans for cargo and passenger airlines, as well as the $425 billion in loans it is allocating to help firms, states and cities hurt by the current downturn.

... Trump continues to view Boeing as a critical company with private and defense links that he wants to see supported, although he has at times been unclear privately about how he wants to handle the situation, one senior Republican said. Trump has said repeatedly over past weeks that the federal government would step in to help Boeing, despite criticisms from some nonpartisan experts that federal lawmakers should avoid singling out individual firms for assistance.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 21, 2020, 02:16:36 AM
If the coronavirus doesn't get you the salmonella will ...

----------------------

'No Way Food Safety Not Compromised': US Regulation Rollbacks During Covid-19 Criticised
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/20/no-way-food-safety-not-compromised-us-regulatory-roll-backs-during-covid-19-criticised

The US government is accelerating controversial regulatory rollbacks to speed up production at meat plants, as companies express growing alarm at the impact of Covid-19 on their operations.

Last week Smithfield shut down one of the largest pork plants in the country after hundreds of employees contracted the coronavirus. The plant in South Dakota – whose output represents 4–5% of US pork production – is reported to be the largest single-source coronavirus hotspot in the US, with more than 600 cases. In response, the company said it was “critical” for the meat industry to “continue to operate unabated”.

Now it has emerged that as a wave of plants announce closures, US meat plants are being granted permission to increase the speed of their production lines. This comes despite warnings that the waivers for higher speeds on slaughter and processing lines will compromise food safety.

The latest line speed increases, announced by the Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) mean 11 poultry plants have been given waivers to operate higher line speeds in the past 2 weeks. A number of beef and pork plants have also been given waivers, including a beef plant in Kansas in late March. The move will allow the additional chicken factories to slaughter as many as 175 birds a minute – the equivalent of 3 per second.

“There is no way that food safety is not compromised when the sole trained government inspector on the slaughter line in a chicken plant is expected to examine three birds every second,” said Tony Corbo, senior government affairs representative at Food & Water Watch. “The US government has stepped on the accelerator to grant these waivers while everyone is concentrating on the Covid-19 epidemic.”

Under traditional poultry processing rules, line speeds ran at 140 birds a minute, and required at least four inspectors to be stationed on each line, tasked with checking carcasses for defects, disease or contamination, including fecal matter which can cause salmonella. That has since been reduced to one inspector per line, with individual regulatory waivers enabling line speed increases.

... Three years ago the National Chicken Council lobbied the government to scrap line speed limits completely, calling them “arbitrary”.

The line speed increases come as Guardian data analysis reveals that at least one in 10 US poultry slaughterhouses failed government salmonella tests last year. In some categories, failure rates are as high as 34%.

... Targets to reduce salmonella disease outbreaks have also been missed, with a rise of 9% in the incidence rate over the last three years according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Outbreak numbers are rising too. A report by US consumer organisation PIRG found that meat and poultry recalls are up by 65% since 2013. Meanwhile a report by the CDC highlighted the rise in antibiotic-resistant salmonella as a serious threat that requires “prompt and sustained action”.

... A critical report on the FSIS by the US Government Accountability Office in 2018 stated that a review of data had shown that “some plants are still not meeting pathogen standards – in some cases repeatedly not meeting the standards – and are allowed to operate”.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 21, 2020, 04:58:57 AM
Minnesota Pork Plant Shuts Down After Outbreak Among Workers
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-20/jbs-shuts-down-minnesota-pork-plant-as-virus-roils-meatpackers

JBS SA, the world’s top meat company, will shutter its pork processing facility in Minnesota following an outbreak of coronavirus, adding to concerns that slaughterhouse logjams will tighten meat supplies for consumers.

The Worthington, Minnesota, facility will wind down operations over two days to ensure existing product in the facility can be used to support food supply, JBS said Monday. The move comes after seven workers tested positive for the virus and officials from the Minnesota Department of Health said Friday the number will likely rise. No date was given for a reopening. The closure means more that a 10% of U.S. hog slaughtering capacity is down.

“As we all learn more about coronavirus, it is clear that the disease is far more widespread across the U.S. and in our county than official estimates indicate based on limited testing,” Bob Krebs, president of JBS USA Pork said in a statement. “We have taken aggressive actions to keep coronavirus out of our plant and keep this critical infrastructure facility operational.”

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz said Friday workers from the Minnesota pork plant and a Smithfield plant in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, could be transferring the virus between the two facilities as there are a lot of family members that work in both plants. JBS’s Worthington facility is tied for third in total U.S. hog slaughter capacity, based on Steiner Consulting data. The facility employs 2,000 people and processes 20,000 hogs per day, according to the company statement.

There are reports of other major hog, cattle and poultry processing plants dealing with cases of coronavirus among their workforce and whether they can continue to stay open will depend on the scale of the outbreak, according to a Monday livestock report from the CME Group. The disease is impacting the entire supply chain and as plants work at reduced capacity or are closed altogether, “this could result in less product available at the grocery store,” according to the report.

The virus is really just starting to spread in the Midwest and meat shortages could easily happen if more plants continue to be impacted
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 21, 2020, 06:04:44 AM
GM, Ford financing take a hit: used car prices thru the floor

"mid-month data from Manheim. The auto-auction firm’s closely watched used vehicle value index plunged 11.8% in the first 15 days of April, a decline that will easily set a record if it holds for the full month."

"If prices finish the second quarter 10% lower than envisioned, he estimates losses could total $3 billion at GM Financial and $2.8 billion at Ford Credit."

" the market is illiquid "

"Vehicle prices are likely going to come under significant pressure in the coming months as rental-car firms including Hertz Global Holdings Inc. and Avis Budget Group Inc. offload far more vehicles than usual"

"GM and Ford’s captive-finance companies and Ally are doing what they can to limit their contribution to the glut of used vehicles hitting auctions by offering extensions to lease customers"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-ford-face-billions-losses-135232626.html

I know a guy who runs some of Mannheim's biggest auctions ... or used to, they're shut down. He told me this was coming a couple weeks ago. And car prices are already thru the floor. Check out Hertz, for example:

https://www.hertzcarsales.com/used-cars-for-sale.htm?geoZip=43210&compositeType=certified

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: NevB on April 21, 2020, 11:11:56 AM
Not sure where this fits but it definitely belongs somewhere on the ASIF

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/ (https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/underlying-conditions/610261/)

Quote
We Are Living in a Failed State
The coronavirus didn’t break America. It revealed what was already broken.

Quote
The crisis demanded a response that was swift, rational, and collective. The United States reacted instead like Pakistan or Belarus
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Aporia_filia on April 21, 2020, 11:43:04 AM
Is not new but now is much more disgusting, repulsive, how the Netherlands (and Luxembourg) are Paradise islands always ready to bleach black money and send cooperation to hell.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Aporia_filia on April 21, 2020, 11:44:55 AM
Following
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on April 21, 2020, 12:55:02 PM
Is the Netherlands becoming a target because of their strong opposition to the so called corona bonds?

I think corona bonds / eurobonds would make great economic sense, but the northern countries do have a point also. They go to great lengths to balance their budgets while the southern countries just incur more debt, whether it's a boom year or not. This gives strong ammo to anti-euro populists.

Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: harpy on April 21, 2020, 08:26:19 PM
There seems to be a misunderstanding about how serious a several month economic hiatus will be to the "economy".

Try to remember what happened in 2008.  Basically, just a bad bet gone horribly wrong.

Now imagine every bet in the months of April and May going horribly wrong.

Oil crashing negative was brushed off. 

lol - the situation is laughably horrible and we live in this death cult that seems to try to be optimistic about the status quo.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 02:04:37 AM
Here are the Largest Public Companies Taking Payroll Loans Meant for Small Businesses
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/large-public-companies-are-taking-small-businesses-payroll-loans.html

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106498645-158747926187120200421ppploansotpubliccompanies-rev.png?v=1587479273&h=405)

--------------------------------

Trump DC hotel Reportedly Seeking Government Relief Amid Lost Revenue from Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-trump-dc-hotel-seeking-government-relief-nyt.html

A hotel in Washington, D.C., owned by President Donald Trump is asking the government for a break on its rent payments, according to a new report.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/business/trump-hotel-rent-payment-coronavirus.html?referringSource=articleShare

The 263-room hotel is owned and operated by the Trump organization, the real estate company currently headed by the president's sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump.

But the hotel is situated in a federally owned building on Pennsylvania Avenue, and the company makes monthly rent payments to the General Services Administration, a federal agency that manages government buildings.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 02:52:32 AM
Coronavirus Pandemic 'Will Cause Famine of Biblical Proportions'
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/apr/21/coronavirus-pandemic-will-cause-famine-of-biblical-proportions

The world is facing widespread famine “of biblical proportions” because of the coronavirus pandemic, the chief of the UN’s food relief agency has warned, with a short time to act before hundreds of millions starve.

More than 30 countries in the developing world could experience widespread famine, and in 10 of those countries there are already more than 1 million people on the brink of starvation, said David Beasley, executive director of the World Food Programme.

“We are not talking about people going to bed hungry,” he told the Guardian in an interview. “We are talking about extreme conditions, emergency status – people literally marching to the brink of starvation. If we don’t get food to people, people will die.”

“It is a hammer blow for millions more who can only eat if they earn a wage. Lockdowns and global economic recession have already decimated their nest eggs. It only takes one more shock – like Covid-19 – to push them over the edge.

... According to a report produced by the UN and other organisations on Thursday, at least 265 million people are being pushed to the brink of starvation by the Covid-19 crisis, double the number under threat before the pandemic.

https://www.wfp.org/publications/2020-global-report-food-crises

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/global-hunger-could-be-next-big-impact-of-coronavirus-pandemic

... crucial is ensuring that supply chains stay open in the face of lockdowns and the difficulty of getting workers into the fields to tend crops if they are sick or unable to travel easily. “If the supply chain breaks down, people can’t get food – and if they can’t get food for long enough, they will die,” said Beasley.

https://youtu.be/7LjzkKNpGO0
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Aporia_filia on April 22, 2020, 11:14:47 AM
Bluice
Quote
Is the Netherlands becoming a target because of their strong opposition to the so called corona bonds?

In the Netherlands, as in everywhere, there are good people and foul souls. You can find, probably, the best ethic Bank and the worse kind of psychopathic billionaires. The politicians in charge at the moment are neocons with psychopathic and racist behavior. You can call that good reasons. Every selfish person will be with you.
It has been pointed out before, but climate deniers take that same position and will not change their BAU way of living "for good reasons"
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 06:09:12 PM
Tyson Foods Closes Iowa Pork Plant Indefinitely After Coronavirus Outbreak
https://thehill.com/homenews/494053-tyson-foods-closes-iowa-pork-plant-indefinitely?amp

Tyson Foods is suspending operations at its pork processing plant in Waterloo, Iowa, because too many workers have been absent due to the coronavirus pandemic, Market Watch reported on Wednesday.

All 2,800 workers of the plant will be asked to come in for coronavirus testing, which will determine the timing of its reopening. They will be paid while the plant is closed, the company said.

"The closure has significant ramifications beyond our company, since the plant is part of a larger supply chain that includes hundreds of independent farmers, truckers, distributors and customers, including grocers," Chief Executive Steve Stouffer said in a statement. "It means the loss of a vital market outlet for farmers and further contributes to the disruption of the nation's pork supply."

Two employees of Tyson Foods' pork processing plant in Columbus Junction, Iowa, have died from the coronavirus after at least 148 workers tested positive. The company announced on Tuesday it would partially reopen that plant.

Four employees of Tyson Foods' poultry processing plant in Georgia have also died from the coronavirus.

Tyson Foods is the second largest chicken, beef and pork processor in the world.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 06:10:31 PM
Trump's Vow To Suspend Immigration Over Coronavirus Has Certain Industries On Edge
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/2997628001

... Critics argued that Trump's proposal was entirely political and could cause devastating harm to the economy if implemented. Ben Johnson, executive director of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, suggested Trump is trying to score political points with his base.

“He’s doing this at a time when there is nobody traveling," Johnson told USA TODAY. “Everybody needs to understand that this is a political strategy and if it ever turns into a policy strategy, it’s going to make things much worse, not better.”

Six million U.S. health care workers are foreign born, including about 29% of all doctors, 38% of home health aides and 23% of retail-store pharmacists, according to the Migration Policy Institute.

“Trump's ill-defined, insidious and irrational tweet insults the thousands of immigrants who are risking their lives in the fight against COVID-19 as health care, pharmacy, manufacturing, transportation, and grocery workers, among other critical roles,”  said Nihad Awad, national executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.

“Banning these and other immigrants from our nation amid the COVID-19 pandemic not only undermines our values but would result in fewer essential workers and makes us less safe.”

Greg Siskind, an immigration lawyer in Tennessee, questioned the message Trump's proposal sends to foreign executives at U.S. manufacturing plants in his state such as Nissan and Volkswagen.

"Telling those companies that their Japanese executives and German executives are not welcome in the United States to oversee their plants is going to be an interesting conversation for those governors and senators," Siskind told USA TODAY. "There are hundreds of thousands of workers in our region that are employed by those companies. I am sure that that is going to be a difficult message."

More than 1 million international students attend colleges nationwide and contribute more than $39 billion to the economy, according to the American Council on Education. Siskind said foreign students subsidize domestic classmates because they pay full tuition that schools rely upon.

"All these colleges are no doubt getting inundated today with messages from students who have been accepted, trying to make final decisions on where they're going," Siskind said. "There are a lot of departments at universities around the country that cannot stay open without international students, especially in the sciences. It has huge implications for research and academia in the United States if this stands."
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: interstitial on April 22, 2020, 06:38:21 PM
There seems to be a misunderstanding about how serious a several month economic hiatus will be to the "economy".

Try to remember what happened in 2008.  Basically, just a bad bet gone horribly wrong.

Now imagine every bet in the months of April and May going horribly wrong.

Oil crashing negative was brushed off. 

lol - the situation is laughably horrible and we live in this death cult that seems to try to be optimistic about the status quo.
While I agree that this disease related economic collapse is far more serious then "the great recession" describing it as a bad bet implies it was a mistake. It was not it was an intentional scam that had to collapse sooner or later.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 11:01:21 PM
Congressional Research Service Report: Postponing Federal Elections and the COVID-19 Pandemic: Legal Considerations
https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/LSB10425.pdf

“This Sidebar reviews the legal provisions that would constrain any efforts to delay or cancel federal elections during a public health crisis or other national emergency. The first part reviews laws pertaining to presidential elections, and the second part reviews laws relevant to congressional elections.”

... the Constitution does not require a general election for President. ...

----------------------------

Elections?! We don't need no stinkin' elections!!

------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 22, 2020, 11:20:34 PM
Pandemic To Drive Carbon Emissions Down 6 Percent: WMO
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/warns-hunger-coronavirus-cases-top-25m-live-updates-200421233559829.html

The coronavirus pandemic is expected to drive carbon dioxide emissions down by six percent this year, the head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said, in what would be the biggest yearly drop since World War II.

"This crisis has had an impact on the emissions of greenhouse gases," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas told a virtual briefing in Geneva.

"We estimate that there is going to be a six percent drop in carbon emissions this year because of the lack of emissions from transportation and industrial energy production."

------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 23, 2020, 12:20:52 AM
Tyson foods closes US largest pork processing plant. It may also close another large processing facility.
Critical infrastructure jobs have had a pass on continued operations but you can’t make or force  people to work in unsafe conditions. Part of the reason Tyson closed is because it’s workers were not showing up for work ( inoculation) .

https://www.businessinsider.com/tyson-foods-closes-pork-processing-plant-waterloo-iowa-coronavirus-outbreak-2020-4


 I delivered another few pigs to slaughter yesterday. The one slaughterhouse for half of Calif. is receiving two loads of hogs from Nebraska today. Those hogs are probably being sold at very cheap prices due to restrictions on slaughter facilities in the larger hog producing parts of the US. This problem will not resolve itself with either cleaning of facilities or social distancing within the facilities themselves. Meat production facilities for chicken and pork are in trouble . In a year or two things may get better but we are only a month or two into issues that will impact food supply.
 The reason I thought Coronavirus was going to be so lethal the was due to how it would magnify other pre-existing problems like famines in Africa or health issues with concentrated groups of humans like refugee camps. Any concentrated group of people are at risk , making your food processing facilities work with people elbow to elbow can’t continue and sending half your workforce home to comply with social distancing guidelines won’t work either.   
 You might consider how effectively you could wear a mask while at the same time shouldering a 150 lb. half carcass . Yes every pig half gets shouldered by a human . I have shouldered 150lbs. and it is a slippery unbalanced challenge. If you drop it it will go into waste.
 Hunger is stalking humanity.  We look away from how our food is produced or processed. Maybe some of you will be forced to kill and butcher your own meat someday ? Not at all a hard choice if your family is starving. We should really look at how we are supported by other humans doing work we consider repulsive. Repulsive is expecting others to do work  we refuse to do. Off topic I suppose but a personal pet peeve.
 
 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 23, 2020, 08:44:04 AM
Dean at latimes: masks of bondage

"Instead of making 5 cents for every label that she sewed onto a shirt, she would be paid 20 cents for each pair of elastic straps she sewed onto a fabric mask."

"The minimum wage in L.A. is $13.50, but Ruiz would make $7 an hour."

"She has avoided signing up for healthcare or SNAP benefits out of fear that the Trump administration might use that to threaten her immigration status. Since she is paid off the books, she isn’t eligible for unemployment insurance if work dries up."

"She’s afraid of getting sick but needs to keep working"

"garments made in L.A. by underpaid workers in sweatshop conditions have been linked to orders from major retailers "

"the masks they were sewing had no labels, and they did not know where they were being sold. They did not know the legal names of the businesses they were working for"

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-04-21/making-masks-and-making-less-than-minimum-wage

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 23, 2020, 08:50:04 AM
Lieber at dallasnews: wont get fooled again

"During this crisis, you’d think the company would be pushing forward on all cylinders, working 24/7 to manufacture the one commodity that Americans and the rest of the world want so badly."

"You’d be wrong."

"The company is only operating weekday shifts. You drive by nights and weekends and the employee parking lot is empty."

"Everything Bowen has warned about has come true."

"The common theme is that during an outbreak like this, everybody wants to be his customer. But as soon as an outbreak subsides, his customers dump him and run back to China. The reason? His masks may cost a dime each, but a made-in-China mask might go for two cents."

"Last time he geared up and went three shifts a day working his tail off,” the mayor recalled. “As soon as the issue died, he didn’t have any sales. "

"Bowen wants a guaranteed contract, not a proclamation."

"By 2009, the company had grown strong enough to meet the demand caused by the H1N1 swine flu outbreak. Hospitals promised to stick with him afterward, but they broke their promise. The allure of cheaper Chinese masks was too great for hospital purchasing groups to ignore."

"The next year, Bowen and company president Dan Reese had to lay off 150 workers. "

“150 people that saved a lot of hospitals from closing their doors were rewarded by losing their jobs. And that’s not going to happen again.”

“If y’all don’t care about me in good times when everybody’s OK, how am I going to be there when you need me?”

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-imagine-that-a-local-business-making-surgical-face-masks-is-working-247-guess-again/

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 23, 2020, 04:14:23 PM
Some people seem to be confusing the food supply with the food supply chain.  It is the latter that is being affected, not the former.  Both the supply and demand still exist, just in different ways.  The supply chain is struggling to adapt, but should be able to accommodate the changes in both the short- and long-term.  Claims of a famine of "biblical proportions" appears to be nothing more than fearmongering.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 23, 2020, 04:54:32 PM
Walrus, Do you have some reason why you think the locust plague won’t cause famine. I am sure all the transportation , logistics , and donations are totally prepared . ( snark ) How can the Covid-19 challenges affecting healthcare facilities not be affected by a concurrent famine coupled with a worldwide pandemic. Do you think the logistics are no more difficult when you combine multiple challenges concurrently and sufferer a worldwide recession , or depression  at the same time ? Are the monies required for buying and transporting famine supplies going to get easier now that Trump has pulled out of WHO.  How about war, famine, and Covid-19 for Yemen ? What the f... difference does it make to people dying when there is just one more horseman at the door ?
What is your argument ? Where is your rosy projection for monies collected to help the poorest counties in Africa, Bangladesh, Yemen to weather what is on their doorstep ? Do you think the people in the West locked down without a job are going to be especially magnanimous with their paycheck this month ? Next Month, and how long do the people currently starving because their crops all disappeared hang on till they start showing up in fatality rates ?

Please supply me with your amazing glass ball so I can see the errors of my logic. Please site references for our entertainment. How many people die in a biblical plague anyhow ? Yes the guardian it’s using literary flourishes but they are quoted from the WHO. Fearmongering fools that they are.

Terry is sick so I am trying to channel his dry wit

I made a mistake , the organization predicting famine is the WFP world food program not the WHO
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 23, 2020, 05:29:05 PM
Maybe in his defense he didn't actually pay attention to the report and thought that it was about famines of biblical proportions affecting the developed world (USA, Europe, etc.)? Maybe?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 23, 2020, 06:01:30 PM
Bruce,
You are talking about areas that have experienced poverty and hunger for centuries (Africa, Yemen, Bangladesh, etc.).  You seem to be saying that a recession will reduce resources available for humanitarian aid to these areas.  Is that correct?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 23, 2020, 06:08:59 PM
Bruce,
You are talking about areas that have experienced poverty and hunger colonization, resource theft and slavery for centuries (Africa, Yemen, Bangladesh, etc.).  You seem to be saying that a recession will reduce resources available for humanitarian aid to these areas.  Is that correct?

Fixed that for you.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: gandul on April 23, 2020, 06:17:44 PM
Antibody study in NY shown by Cuomo right now.
A 22% in NYC got it.
Overall state-wise CFR less than 1%, I believe around 0.5%.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 23, 2020, 06:19:10 PM
Buckle Up: The "Stuckflation" Roller Coaster Straight Ahead!
https://www.bficapital.com/post/buckle-up-the-stuckflation-roller-coaster-straight-ahead
Quote
On December 18th of 2019, our team at Global Gold shared their thoughts on the most probable outlook for the global economy and titled that post “STUCKFLATION – the New Normal”. The article was written with the mindset of warning our clients and readers of the pitfalls, as well as the opportunities, to expect in 2020. While we did not expect the economic speed at which the damage was done by the pandemic, there was enough reason to consider the potential of a very sluggish economy in the least, combined with the growing danger of inflation in the years ahead. At this point, that scenario appears almost certain!
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 23, 2020, 07:04:49 PM
26 million people have sought US jobless aid in the past five weeks since the coronavirus hit. About one in six American workers have lost their jobs, by far the worst string of layoffs on record.

Economists have forecast that the unemployment rate for April could go as high as 20 percent.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/k2S5r9H4Pr9w55w6LfVGTm7vvOaMcEF4pKXDYexCARDM1gCNHHmkXqlj8W3zLPxYHuXL7JXkf9maQgUg2vV0oXObNTzttD5jTrYetdbK)

(https://www.cartoonistgroup.com/properties/luckovich/art_images/cg5e6b03426f8a7.jpg)

-----------------------------

States That Helped Trump Win See Biggest Job Losses
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/04/23/states-that-helped-trump-win-see-biggest-job-losses-204072

Battleground states that handed Donald Trump the presidency four years ago are seeing higher-than-average layoffs amid an economic downturn wreaking havoc across the country — a dynamic that could hold major implications for November’s election.

Job losses are piling up in places like Michigan, where more than one in four workers applied for unemployment benefits in the past five weeks, according to a POLITICO analysis of Labor Department data. In Pennsylvania, another key Rust Belt state that voted for Trump in 2016, nearly one-fourth of the workforce has filed an unemployment claim since mid-March. Ohio is seeing more than 17 percent of workers filing jobless claims, outpacing the national average of 16.1 percent, as is Minnesota, a state Trump narrowly lost.

-----------------------------

(https://creativityboostonline.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/karma.jpg?w=840)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 23, 2020, 08:59:50 PM
https://youtu.be/0_sMHfTlQE8
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 23, 2020, 09:22:32 PM
Walrus, I think we can reasonably expect people who are unemployed to reduce any contributions to relief efforts for famine areas.
 I think hospitals and medical staff that are exposed to a deadly virus are less ready to deal with the aids epidemic , or the medical requirements to save a starving population. Some very brilliant doctors and nurses will die. And that famine exposes a population to diseases other than corona , and cramped refuge camps set up to feed large population will leave those populations even at worse risk for cholera outbreaks.
 I think Trump getting out of the WHO and the contributions the US made to the world health organization will hurt people .
 I am repeating myself . Tipping points exit. Too many corona cases lead to hospital overloads that then make survivable diseases lethal. Too many concurrent issues like war, cramped living conditions, existing disease issues, and not enough money are amplified by a worldwide pandemic. So then each of those stressors contribute a larger share of mortalities than they would otherwise, say a year ago.
On top of that you add coronavirus mortalities.

Remittances home by foreign nationals living and working abroad are way down also. Money counts way more than I wish it did.
  I try to live close to where my food comes from. Many of those people starving also farmed and then the crops failed. Not many people think two or three years of food stores and viable seed to replant after two failed seasons. It is a very difficult thing to maintain stores and seed security agains’t the monster of poverty you personally have never known. Somewhere deep in my bones I feel it, what the grind of an empty stomach felt like to some now forgotten ancestor.
 
 
 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Rodius on April 24, 2020, 03:01:52 AM
Bruce,
You are talking about areas that have experienced poverty and hunger colonization, resource theft and slavery for centuries (Africa, Yemen, Bangladesh, etc.).  You seem to be saying that a recession will reduce resources available for humanitarian aid to these areas.  Is that correct?

Fixed that for you.

Good fix..... so many people fail to see the obvious.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 24, 2020, 05:22:11 PM
Here is a chart showing rice spot price rising from about 10$ to $17 from ~ May 2019 to to May 2020
There has been a recent spike because some producing countries are not exporting and there is hoarding going on worldwide. Other issues with Coronavirus restrictions in Africa affecting transport.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/rice-price

Reuter’s article on transportation issues on rice in Africa.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-food-africa-insigh/how-africa-risks-reeling-from-a-health-crisis-to-a-food-crisis-idUKKCN2260M8

The word hoarding has taken on some derogatory meaning I don’t like. Prepping also has same connotation . I think keeping a year or more in staples stored is wise not wacky , keeping two years of seed supply is just cheap insurance .Knowing how to produce years of food from those seeds is wisdom.  People keep huge amounts of money, way more than they need and we aspire to their riches but if someone stores food or seed they are mental ?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 24, 2020, 05:50:02 PM
Here is a chart showing rice spot price rising from about 10$ to $17 from ~ May 2019 to to May 2020
There has been a recent spike because some producing countries are not exporting and there is hoarding going on worldwide. Other issues with Coronavirus restrictions in Africa affecting transport.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/rice-price

Reuter’s article on transportation issues on rice in Africa.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-food-africa-insigh/how-africa-risks-reeling-from-a-health-crisis-to-a-food-crisis-idUKKCN2260M8

The word hoarding has taken on some derogatory meaning I don’t like. Prepping also has same connotation . I think keeping a year or more in staples stored is wise not wacky , keeping two years of seed supply is just cheap insurance .Knowing how to produce years of food from those seeds is wisdom.  People keep huge amounts of money, way more than they need and we aspire to their riches but if someone stores food or seed they are mental ?

Hoarding, like its companion "price-gouging", are just terms that the unprepared use to criticize those that take necessary precautions.  The grasshoppers are just trying to demonize the ants.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 24, 2020, 06:00:49 PM
Truck driver Kehar Singh says he has returned to his village in Himachal Pradesh state and plans to stay there for a while - at least until his employer can guarantee a safe and clean working environment.

“If there is safety and food then I will come back sooner or I can try my hand at farming for a few months,” he said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-india-freight/indias-truckers-in-crisis-police-checks-no-food-and-fears-of-coronavirus-idUKKCN2260VE

Walrus, I would make a distinction between a person providing food insurance for his family and a person who knows trouble is imminent and buys truckloads of a critical items , like p-95 masks , so that they can profiteer on misery when it arrives. That is the distinction between hoarding and price gouging . Ant though I be.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 24, 2020, 08:35:50 PM
Bruce, I disagree.  Hoarding is the negative term applied to those that buy truckloads of imminent items.  Stockpiling is the term applied to those that are prepared.  Price increases occur whenever a commodity is in short supply.  If the price remained constant, the item would sell out, creating shortages as people begin to hoard (stockpile) it.  The price increases to keep a steady supply (albeit much lower).  Some call this practice price gouging, but in reality it is just market demand.  Prices are sky-high right now for those items in high demand.  This allows for minimal shelving, until production increases to meet demand. 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: wili on April 24, 2020, 09:01:09 PM
Yes, Wal, when only the rich can afford crucial supplies, it is perfect evidence that the capitalist market is working exactly as intended.

Killing the poor is not a flaw of capitalism, it's the central feature
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2020, 04:00:51 AM
Idaho farmer giving away potato crop due to lack of demand
Quote
Millions of potatoes in Idaho being given away to stop crop going to waste amid coronavirus shutdown

An Idaho farmer has decided to donate almost two million potatoes to anybody who claims a share of the crop after the coronavirus turned the potato supply chain “upside down”.

Shutdown orders have caused an unprecedented collapse in the demand for produce, leaving farmers across the US burdened with an abundance of supplies that cannot be sold.

Last week, dairy farmers in Wisconsin were left to pour 30,000 gallons (113,562 litres) of milk away each day during the pandemic because of the sudden drop in demand.
Ordinarily, one third of dairy sales in the state are sold to the food-service trade, including businesses, schools, and restaurants, which have been ordered shut for weeks.
...

The potato CEO, who traditionally sells potatoes to french fry factories, supermarkets and restaurants, told CNN that the market had disappeared.

“With people staying at home, these restaurants have shut down and so our markets have just kind of fallen apart,” said Mr Cranney.

“The factories that we sell to for french fries, they’ve lost their sales and had to shut their factories down with freezers full of french fries, and so the outlets for our potatoes, we’re having a difficult time getting them to market.”

Cranney Farm told CNN that it now plans to cut-back on the amount of crops grown this year, but that if the shutdown “drags on longer for several more months, it could be a total disaster. People are going to lose their farms over this”. ...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/idaho-farmer-coronavirus-potato-supply-chain-crop-a9470176.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sebastian Jones on April 25, 2020, 05:12:05 AM
Idaho farmer giving away potato crop due to lack of demand


There is something illogical about there all of a sudden being excess potatoes or milk etc. Presumably the net amount of food that people consume has not declined. So why the excess? Could it be that people are all cooking at home instead of eating out and that this is much more efficient and much less wasteful?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 25, 2020, 05:20:41 AM
Yes, Wal, when only the rich can afford crucial supplies, it is perfect evidence that the capitalist market is working exactly as intended.

Killing the poor is not a flaw of capitalism, it's the central feature

I see.  You prefer to see people buy up truckloads of critical items so they can profiteer on misery, as Bruce described.  Very nice indeed.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on April 25, 2020, 05:25:33 AM
Re: Rice

looks like a bigger price move in the US than in SE asia. Here is a chart ffor rice fob bangkok, about a 15% move over 2019-2020 as compared to US 70% move

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=rice&months=60

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 25, 2020, 01:30:30 PM
There is something illogical about there all of a sudden being excess potatoes or milk etc. Presumably the net amount of food that people consume has not declined. So why the excess? Could it be that people are all cooking at home instead of eating out and that this is much more efficient and much less wasteful?

It is because people are cooking at home and not eating out, but not (primarily) because of the waste issue. Most of the potatoes grown in the US are eaten as French fries in restaurants.  People just aren't buying up the quantities of bagged frozen French fries to make up for the French fries they used to eat at restaurants. Plus, there are very specific supply chains set up to grow, process, pack and ship potatoes to the commercial French fry market and these chains can't be easily switched to making small bags of frozen fries for the home market. Similar issues for milk.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on April 25, 2020, 03:29:51 PM
You are correct dnem.  The supply chain for restaurants, etc. is quite different from grocery stores and markets for home consumption.  Those products that were destined for commercial use are in abundance, while those for residential use are in short supply.  These chains have taken years to establish, so they will not be changed overnight.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 25, 2020, 07:48:43 PM
Pandemic And Economic Collapse: The Next 60 Days
http://www.alt-market.com/index.php/articles/4200-pandemic-and-economic-collapse-the-next-60-days
Quote
The extent of the crisis will become much more clear in the next two months to the majority. The result will be civil unrest in the summer, likely followed by extreme poverty levels in the winter. No measure of “reopening” is going to do much to stop the avalanche that has already been started. The solution is always the same: localized trade and production and removing yourself and your community from dependency on the establishment controlled economy. It's certainly difficult, but it is possible. What is not possible is fixing the broken and corrupt economy we have now or stopping the current collapse. This is a fool's errand for people living in unicorn land.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 25, 2020, 07:53:27 PM
Anatomy of a fiat currency collapse
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/anatomy-of-a-fiat-currency-collapse
Quote
This article asserts that infinite money-printing is set to destroy fiat currencies far quicker than might be generally thought. This final act of monetary destruction follows a 98% loss of purchasing power for dollars since the London gold pool failed. And now the Fed and other major central banks are committing to an accelerated, infinite monetary debasement to underwrite their entire private sectors and their governments’ spending, to prop up bond markets and therefore all financial asset prices.
It repeats the mistakes of John Law in France three hundred years ago almost to the letter, but this time on a global scale. History, economic theory and even common sense tell us governments and their central banks will rapidly destroy their currencies. So that we can see how to protect ourselves from this monetary madness, we dig into history for guidance to see who benefited from the Austrian and German hyperinflations of 1922-23, and how fortunes were made and lost.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2020, 08:33:06 PM
Florida’s No-Rules Vibe Gets a Coronavirus Reality Check
Quote
Right now, instead of following DeSantis, many of the state’s businesses are nervously keeping an eye on the state’s biggest tourism moneymaker, Walt Disney World—although they lack similar resources for a long-term pandemic pause. The park closed March 16, well ahead of the governor’s order, and has yet to announce a reopening date. One analyst predicted that, because of a lack of a vaccine and an expected economic slump, Disney’s gates would remain locked until 2021.


For longtime Orlando resident Jim Clark, a historian at the University of Central Florida, the sudden silence is reminiscent of the 1970s gas crisis, when the flow of visitors to Disney suddenly dried up. The economy blew apart like a house of cards built next to an oscillating fan.
“Hotels went out of business, homes were foreclosed on, condos were being auctioned off for $15,000—basically they were giving them away,” Clark said. It took years for the Central Florida economy to rebound, although when it did “we grew fat on the resort tax,” he said.

What makes it worse this time, he said, is that the shutdown is affecting so many more people, including whole families who immigrated from Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. They came to Central Florida, he said, because there were so many jobs available in the theme parks and hotels—only to see those jobs evaporate almost overnight.

All of Central Florida’s theme parks—not just Disney but also Sea World and Universal—have entrances off the same stretch of road, Interstate 4. As a result, I-4 is frequently so clogged with traffic that cars and trucks have a hard time moving.
Now, Clark said, “the interstate is eerily quiet.” When Clark took a drive on it last week, he said, “I allotted my usual 30 minutes for the trip and it took only 10.”

[The] Jacksonville Beach experience isn’t quite the economic boon that people might expect.
When Mayor Lenny Curry, former head of the Florida GOP, reopened the beaches last Friday “we saw a little bit of a spike, but there’s still only so much that people can do out here,” said Curt DeWitt of Beach Life Rentals.

The rules said if you were on the beach you had to keep moving—no sitting still and sunbathing. People rented bikes, he said, but they couldn’t use the umbrellas, chairs or kayaks that were also available. After the first day’s excitement, the number of beach visitors dropped. …
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/25/ron-desantis-re-open-florida-coronavirus-204833
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 25, 2020, 08:48:28 PM
Reopen the Economy While Protecting Those Truly at Risk or Face Another Great Depression - Wirepoints
https://wirepoints.org/reopen-the-economy-while-protecting-those-truly-at-risk-or-face-a-severe-depression/
Quote
Please, please, wake up. A calamity far worse than coronavirus itself is at hand.

Frightening as the death toll from the virus is, a more terrifying consequence looms: a depression, and a major one.

If you think that’s exaggeration, it’s because expert opinion and news on the economy is drowned out by “frightening, click-bait headlines” that are “not useful” on meaningless numbers.

The assessments from sources of all political stripes are everywhere, though you won’t see them mentioned by politicians or most of the media the general public reads.

This is threading a hair thin needle between Scylla and Charybdis.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2020, 08:49:37 PM
April 24, 2020

Good news:  U.S. banks can scrap the six-per-month transaction limit, allowing account holders to make an unlimited number of withdrawals and transfers from their savings accounts.

Bad news: the change was made possible because the Fed eliminated reserve requirements for all types of accounts in March. :o

Federal Reserve scraps transfer limits on bank savings accounts
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-savings/federal-reserve-scraps-transfer-limits-on-bank-savings-accounts-idUSKCN22627Z
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 25, 2020, 08:53:35 PM
"It Will All End Badly" The Coming Economic End Game
http://brucewilds.blogspot.com/2020/04/it-will-all-end-badly-coming-economic.html
Quote
The point of this post is to clarify that just because we have muddled along putting band-aids on our economy does not mean that we have accomplished a great deal. The Trump economy has been a continuation of deficit spending. We have postponed the day of reckoning but most likely made it far worse. Allen Meltzer was a true old school economist that understood this. The time the Federal Reserve has bought for the country to come to terms with its many problems has been squandered at a great cost. While many people claim the American economy was great before covid-19 hit, others like me who work on Main Street beg to differ. For years, an ugly reality has been masked by easy money and deficit spending. While it is difficult to time when our false economy will finally give up the ghost, it is clear this will all end badly.

Footnote; I'm afraid this has become a two-part article because of its length. The second part which focuses on where all the is likely to lead will be published soon.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 03:34:48 AM
First World problems:  meat processing plants have closed due to coronavirus infections.  Interest in plant-based alternatives soars.

Beyond Meat Sentiment Rises Amid Fear of Beef and Pork Shortage
April 25, 2020.
Quote
The growing threat of a meat shortage is helping to lift shares of plant-based protein manufacturer Beyond Meat Inc.

The stock jumped 41% last week, its biggest weekly gain since going public last May. The advance followed news of food plant closures that could reduce the amount of pork and beef products available for U.S. shoppers in the near future. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-25/beyond-meat-sentiment-rises-amid-fear-of-beef-and-pork-shortage
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 03:52:07 AM
All probably full of medical supplies.  JFK = New York City

Quote
Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 4/25/20, 8:55 AM
SIX Air China aircraft en route from Beijing to @JFKairport right now. That's incredible.
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1254031192225189889
Image below.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 26, 2020, 05:36:01 AM
Sigmetnow, I was thinking plant based protein “ beyond “ was really missing the boat when I went to the store and there was no meat in the meat section. Marketing is about filling market demands when competition is weak. I didn’t see “ beyond “ in the cases to fill the void. Meat cases are full again for now and when restaurants return there might be shortages for different reasons.
 Nobody knows when that will be so farmers are really guessing about where demand for it’s products will be in six months or a year. When I put a sow and boar together there will be four months till babies and another 12-16 months till they go to market. So when I am planning I need to think what markets I will have in about two years. Those producers who supply the now closed processing plants are losing money right now but they still have to guess about how many feet on the ground they should plan for next year, or two years from now. They can’t just switch to growing peas for protein either.
 It bothers me sometimes who you are rooting for Sigmetnow. There are ways to improve farming but replacing us with “beyond” factory produced food will only work if it is cheap and abundant enough to push us off the store shelves.you gotta remember that many of us work for almost nothing so your competition is really difficult to underprice. If you get rid of enough of us you can maybe get people to pay more for factory food. They won’t have a choice. Invest where you choose for where corporations finally get a total throat hold on small farmers and the public both.
 
 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 26, 2020, 03:09:56 PM
How Shutdowns Will Keep Killing the Economy, Even When They're Over
https://mises.org/wire/how-shutdowns-will-keep-killing-economy-even-when-theyre-over
Quote
Even beyond the short term, business owners have no way to plan. If a business owner is allowed to actually conduct business during the summertime this year, it may still be that politicians will later elect to shut businesses whenever it is decided the risk of spreading viruses demands another "shutdown." We're even told this could go on for years.

One would have to be impressively naive and deeply ignorant about how businesses work to think that commerce, investment, and entrepreneurship would just continue as usual under these conditions. In reality,  the threat of a government-mandated lockdown hanging over the heads of countless business owners and entrepreneurs will mean there will be far less willingness and ability to invest in businesses, offer products and services, or employ people.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 26, 2020, 03:31:36 PM
U.S. Reels Toward Meat Shortages and the World May Be Next
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meat-supply-threats-grow-first-181155792.html
Quote
While hundreds of plants in the Americas are still running, the staggering acceleration of supply disruptions is now raising questions over global shortfalls. Taken together, the U.S., Brazil and Canada account for about 65% of world meat trade.

“It’s absolutely unprecedented,” said Brett Stuart, president of Denver-based consulting firm Global AgriTrends. “It’s a lose-lose situation where we have producers at the risk of losing everything and consumers at the risk of paying higher prices. Restaurants in a week could be out of fresh ground beef.”
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 26, 2020, 04:30:11 PM
Tom, your economic posts continue to cite almost exclusively stridently ideological sources. Yesterday's dire posts were both from gold bug sites. Sites that want you to buy gold are always going to paint a bleak picture. Today, the Mises Institute is a hard right libertarian think tank that believes "the market" will solve all.

Take these sources for what they are.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 27, 2020, 02:39:58 AM
Maybe dnem, but they make good arguments.
We will see. This year really is unprecedented.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 27, 2020, 04:00:56 AM
U.S. Could Be Weeks From Meat Shortages With Shutdowns Spreading
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-could-be-weeks-from-meat-shortages-with-shutdowns-spreading/ar-BB139I9V

Plant shutdowns are leaving the U.S. dangerously close to meat shortages as coronavirus outbreaks spread to suppliers across the nation and the Americas.

Almost a third of U.S. pork capacity is down, the first big poultry plants closed on Friday and experts are warning that domestic shortages are just weeks away. Brazil, the world’s No. 1 shipper of chicken and beef, saw its first major closure with the halt of a poultry plant owned by JBS SA, the world’s biggest meat company. Key operations are also down in Canada, the latest being a British Columbia poultry plant.

While hundreds of plants in the Americas are still running, the staggering acceleration of supply disruptions is now raising questions over global shortfalls. Taken together, the U.S., Brazil and Canada account for about 65% of world meat trade.

“It’s absolutely unprecedented,” said Brett Stuart, president of Denver-based consulting firm Global AgriTrends. “It’s a lose-lose situation where we have producers at the risk of losing everything and consumers at the risk of paying higher prices. Restaurants in a week could be out of fresh ground beef.”

New U.S. shutdowns are hitting at a dizzying rate. Smithfield Foods Inc., the world’s No. 1 pork producer, said Friday it was closing another operation, this one in Illinois. That news hit less than an hour after Hormel Foods Corp. said it was idling two of its Jennie-O turkey plants in Minnesota. JBS said Sunday it will shutter a beef production facility in Wisconsin.

The most-recent news added to a flurry of other halts announced in the space of just a few weeks.

(https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/BB13a2wf.img?h=466&w=600&m=6&q=60&o=f&l=f)

“During this pandemic, our entire industry is faced with an impossible choice: continue to operate to sustain our nation’s food supply or shutter in an attempt to entirely insulate our employees from risk,” Smithfield said in a statement Friday. “It’s an awful choice; it’s not one we wish on anyone.”

And these shutdowns are happening at a time when global meat supplies were already tight. China, the world’s top hog producer, has been battling an outbreak of African Swine Fever, which destroyed millions of the country’s pigs. Plus the virus is hitting production after some meat companies had already taken steps to slow output because of the closure of restaurants around the world.

Total American meat supplies in cold-storage facilities are equal to roughly two weeks of production. With most plant shutdowns lasting about 14 days for safety reasons, that further underscores the potential for deficits.

Meanwhile, with slaughterhouses closing, farmers don’t have a place to sell their animals. That’s forcing some livestock producers to dispose of them. Plants are also facing a labor crunch as employees fall ill. It’s been reported that a large chicken-processing company was forced to kill 2 million of its birds earlier this month because of worker shortages.

That’s the latest cruel blow to supply chains, with food being wasted en masse at the same time that grocery store shelves are running empty.

The situation for U.S. farms is so severe that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service is setting up a center to help identify potential alternative markets and assist on “depopulation and disposal methods.”

... At the same time, U.S. federal employees responsible for inspecting meat plants are falling ill. More than 100 inspection-service employees have tested positive for Covid-19, the government confirmed. At least two deaths of inspectors have been reported.

U.S. inspectors travel among facilities. That’s adding to fears that shutdowns will keep occurring if a sick federal employee brings the infection to plants where there’s not yet an outbreak.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on April 27, 2020, 01:45:33 PM
How Shutdowns Will Keep Killing the Economy, Even When They're Over
Quote
Even beyond the short term, business owners have no way to plan. If a business owner is allowed to actually conduct business during the summertime this year, it may still be that politicians will later elect to shut businesses whenever it is decided the risk of spreading viruses demands another "shutdown." We're even told this could go on for years.

One would have to be impressively naive and deeply ignorant about how businesses work to think that commerce, investment, and entrepreneurship would just continue as usual under these conditions. In reality,  the threat of a government-mandated lockdown hanging over the heads of countless business owners and entrepreneurs will mean there will be far less willingness and ability to invest in businesses, offer products and services, or employ people.

I'm no fan of Mises, but the topic is interesting.  I think it plausible that there could be significant restructuring of the economy.  I'm struck by how much of the economy that employs people produces things that just aren't important.  See: 

Why Do So Many Modern Jobs Seem Pointless?
https://reason.com/2019/01/29/why-do-so-many-modern-jobs-see/ (https://reason.com/2019/01/29/why-do-so-many-modern-jobs-see/)

"Graeber points to polls in which 37 to 40 percent of respondents felt their jobs made no "meaningful contribution to the world." Add the unneeded aspects of needed jobs, and Graeber estimates the total "bullshitization" of the job market at "slightly over 50%."

All these jobs are suspended in these lockdowns.  I suspect many organizations and individuals will realize that much of what they've been paying for isn't needed.  We might see substantial persistent unemployment. 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Neven on April 27, 2020, 01:49:11 PM
We might see substantial persistent unemployment.

And how many parents and grandparents will that kill? Doesn't matter, that's just unemployment.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 27, 2020, 01:56:28 PM
https://www.vox.com/2018/5/8/17308744/bullshit-jobs-book-david-graeber-occupy-wall-street-karl-marx

Bullshit jobs: why they exist and why you might have one
And why this professor thinks we need a revolution.
By Sean Illing@seanillingsean.illing@vox.com  Updated Nov 9, 2019, 8:47am EST

Do you have a job that you secretly believe is pointless?

If so, you have what anthropologist David Graeber calls a “bullshit job.” A professor at the London School of Economics and a leader of the early Occupy Wall Street movement, Graeber has written a new book called Bullshit Jobs: A Theory.

He argues that there are millions of people across the world — clerical workers, administrators, consultants, telemarketers, corporate lawyers, service personnel, and many others — who are toiling away in meaningless, unnecessary jobs, and they know it.

https://www.amazon.com/Bullshit-Jobs-Theory-David-Graeber/dp/150114331X
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2020, 07:54:48 PM
Some consequences of the responses to the pandemic are positive:

Washington, DC:
"We've now strung together 36 "Good" air quality days in a row in the DC region. It's the longest streak on record by a large margin (old record was 22 set last year and tied earlier this year). Note the steady drop in Code Orange and Code Red pollution days.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1254490810298630148

LA, California:
"I’ve lived in Los Angeles since 1992. I’ve always loved looking at the downtown skyeline. The stay at home order has reduced air pollution significantly. Mother Nature is now healing herself. Wait, we have fucking mountains?”
https://mobile.twitter.com/avenaim/status/1254428886747635712
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2020, 08:51:57 PM
Tyson Warns That the Meat Supply Chain Is Cracking
Quote
It could be a while before many popular pork, chicken, and beef products are back in supermarkets.

Tyson Foods (NYSE:TSN) is experiencing a major disruption to its meat supply chain. The producer of pork, beef, and chicken brands including Jimmy Dean, Hillshire Farm, and Ball Park said in a Sunday advertisement in national newspapers that consumers can expect significant shortages across its product line due to COVID-19 challenges.

"The food supply chain is breaking," an executive explained, due to the temporary closure of meat processing plants like the one in Waterloo, Iowa, that shut down on April 22.

That closure removed a major source of demand for farmers who raise chickens, cows, and pigs for commercial processing, Tyson said at the time, and the inventory pressure has only increased since then. "There will be limited supply of our products available in grocery stores until we are able to reopen our facilities," executives explained in the weekend ad.

While the supply chain challenge has pressured Tyson's stock in recent weeks, it has added to investor enthusiasm for Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND). The plant-based meat substitute specialist recently announced a new partnership with Starbucks and is expected to report a more than 100% sales increase when it announces its quarterly earnings results on Tuesday, May 5. 
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/27/tyson-warns-that-the-meat-supply-chain-is-cracking.aspx

—-
However...
Analysts at UBS downgraded Beyond Meat stock today over concerns that many restaurants and outlets won’t survive the pandemic and those that do may only recover slowly.  Also, there is growing competition from companies like Impossible Foods and Kelloggs.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-downgraded-on-concerns-that-the-soaring-stock-doesnt-take-restaurant-exposure-and-competition-into-account-2020-04-27
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2020, 09:42:11 PM
In the “base case” for the U.S. economy, published by his firm, Rosenberg Research, the economy “reopens” in May, in a staggered approach across industries and regions. Leading to:  a  30% contraction in real gross domestic product in the second quarter, negative year-over-year consumer price growth for 5 quarters, and an unemployment rate of 14.2% by the end of 2020, averaging 13% throughout 2021.

The “worst-case” scenario is grim. It involves no vaccine, no treatment, and a second wave coronavirus outbreak next winter that severely saps business and household confidence. In this outlook, the jobless rate hits 20% — and averages 17.5% through 2021.

The ‘Great Repression’ is here and it will make past downturns look tame, economist says
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-great-repression-is-here-and-it-will-make-past-downturns-look-tame-economist-says-2020-04-27
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 28, 2020, 03:43:09 AM
Here's one for the "debt is no problem" camp. The article argues that we wracked up just as much debt in WW2 as we are now and we just grew out of it in the ensuing decades.  I'd argue that the next few decades will be very different from the second half of the 20th century as we deal with the rising costs of the climate crisis and a growing realization that we need to reign in growth to maintain a functioning biosphere.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/who-pays-for-this/

That’s how government debt gets repaid after it piles up. You don’t pay it off. You grow your way out of it.

This isn’t intuitive because it doesn’t apply to people. When a person takes out a mortgage or a car loan, there’s a repayment date. But that’s only because people have finite careers and lifespans, so there’s an “end date” where all debts have to be repaid.

Countries (and to some extent companies) are different. They have indefinite lives. So they can remain indebted indefinitely, even with rising debt.

As long as nominal GDP growth is higher than the annual budget deficit, debt to GDP goes down, and spending more than you take in leaves you with a lower debt burden.

This is so simple, but it’s easily overlooked because it doesn’t apply to people.


Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 28, 2020, 03:46:46 AM
Coronavirus Breaks the Food Supply Chain
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-meat-packing-plants-closures-food-31411778-7180-4f58-a1aa-64a709f1eccf.html

What's next: House Agriculture Chair Collin Peterson told CNN today that he predicts shortages of pork as soon as next week.

The bottom line: America's farmers have long feared that everyday citizens were clueless about how their food gets made.

Unfortunately, it appears that this education is now happening in a flash.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=geol8k3rsLM

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8pK4J4vAPuA
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 28, 2020, 05:20:40 AM
Voxmundi, From the perspective of a pork producer you just can’t prepare for this . It takes a long time to get pigs from conception to market so nobody has extra pigs to sell in those places we still have slaughter available and there is not much you can do with extra pigs you can’t market. For a hundred
pigs you can spend a couple thousand a month on feed.
 I don’t know what transportation from Nebraska to Calif. costs for live transport but it is happening.
Our slaughter capacity is very limited however.
 Chickens can be raised to market in about two months and they are the only animal that USDA allows farm slaughter and processing. I know the farm to market frozen meat demand has doubled so if someone wanted to raise chickens they could probably have an instant market if anyone wanted to venture into farming right now.
 Fat chance

Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 28, 2020, 02:00:06 PM
Life After COVID: A Look at the New Economy
https://www.theorganicprepper.com/after-covid-new-economy/
Quote
Two reasons that the world After COVID will be so different are problems with the economy and the supply chain. Let’s take a look at both and see where we’re headed.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 28, 2020, 04:00:30 PM
While we ponder the length of time until a vaccine is protective enough to safely and widely re-open the economy in some form, consider that for a significant proportion of even the developed world (in this example, the U.S.), it will never be:  “Nearly 14,000 votes and 69.2% of Liz's followers said they will NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine once available.”

Liz Wheeler is from OAN, the “One America News” Network, a conservative, far right-wing news and opinion channel that regularly features pro-Donald Trump stories.  The channel has been noted for promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories.

From: https://twitter.com/andrewkimmel/status/1254909408905097216
And wikipedia.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 28, 2020, 10:32:45 PM
Trump Plans to Order Meat Processing Plants to Stay Open During Coronavirus
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3038300001

WASHINGTON – Faced with worries of a meat shortage caused by the coronavirus, President Donald Trump plans to order meat-processing plants to remain open and will try to protect them from legal liability, officials said Tuesday.

Trump plans to declare meat plants as critical infrastructure, and cite the Defense Production Act to justify an order to keep them open, said two officials familiar with the discussions, speaking on condition of anonymity because the order is not yet completed.

Trump could sign the order as early as Tuesday, officials said, and it will likely cover other types of food processing facilities.

Trump also said he would issue an executive order to shield meat plants from legal liability if they are sued by employees who contract coronavirus while on the job. While Trump only mentioned Tyson Foods specifically, he suggested his order would protect other businesses from liability as well.

---------------------------

... More than 4,400 meatpacking workers have tested positive for the virus, and at least 18 have died from the virus as of Tuesday morning, ... workers have tested positive at at least 80 plants in 26 states, and there have been 28 closures of at least a day.

USA TODAY also found that 153 of the nation’s largest meatpacking plants, about one in three, operates in a county with a high rate of COVID-19 infection, raising concerns that more workers at more plants will fall ill.

Department of Agriculture data show at least 838,000 fewer cattle, hogs and sheep were slaughtered for meat processing over the past week compared to the same time period last year, a 28% drop. Tuesday marked the worst day yet, with total slaughter falling 39% compared to the same day last year.

The order was slammed by the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union.

"We only wish that this administration cared as much about the lives of working people as it does about meat, pork and poultry products," said Stuart Appelbaum, the union's president

... "Is he saying, if an owner tells a worker he needs to work next to a sick person without a mask and wouldn’t be liable?" Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer told reporters. "That wouldn't make sense."

----------------------------

(https://www.rawstory.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Trumpsteaks-1280x720.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 29, 2020, 12:21:09 AM
I can see the government backstopping insurance liability for meat packing plants but ultimately double shifts or efforts at running with reduced concentrations of workers on packing lines means the farmers will likely have increased slaughter/ butchery costs .
 The costs of USDA slaughter / butchery costs are already very high and that is the main reason Calif. imports almost all it’s pork. Calif. Per pig slaughter $75-$110 depending on size, butchery cut and wrap
$450-600 also depends on size ( lbs ) and which cuts you want. Feed $ 350-400  Veterinarians and healthcare, $50  transport $100   So for a 220 lb. hanging weight you have about $1020 in expenses or for 300 lbs you have about $1260.
 Commodity pork sells for less than $2 per lb.  My pigs are not commodity pork but when I need about $8-9 per lb. for what I sell it comes as a real marketing challenge . 
 Most people count their time as an hourly wage. I work about thirty hours a week and my wife works to deal with sales , phone , finances, paperwork ad nauseam.
 A farm has  expenses like taxes, fences , water, electric, trucks, trailers and new breeding stock
 Some years I don’t break even , most  years I make less than a thousand a month , my wife has a real job .
 So if slaughter / butchery or feed costs go up who is my customer base for $10 pork ?
Commodity pork is what people are willing to pay for and the factory farm model that supplies it would probably convince people they should find another form of protein if they knew the lives that those confinement pigs were forced to live.  Same for chickens. Cheap protein comes with a cost but I guess
Trump knows what no meat in the meat case means to MAGA. 
Freedom comes with a cost, my pigs have pasture and are well kept
I have a farm and it is worth suffering low wages
but what freedom do the low wage packing plant employees have ?
Only the freedom to quit or the choice to volunteer for herd immunity and an extra dollar or two in hourly wages.
 






 
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 29, 2020, 12:49:58 AM
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on April 29, 2020, 01:03:09 AM
The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Drifting has this connotation of being swept along. Stop being sheeple?
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2020, 02:04:38 AM
Pandemic effects have slashed states’ income.  Muni bonds and federal money are needed to keep them alive.

The $3.8 trillion municipal bond market, rocked by the coronavirus, looks to Washington for help
Quote
$3.8 trillion market for funding state and local governments, airports, schools and hospitals faces a test next month as New York City's transit agency offers bonds to the market for the first time since the coronavirus emptied its subways, trains and buses.

Investing in the roughly $900 million offering from the Metropolitan Transportation Authority will be a leap of faith on the part of investors who will will have to imagine a healthier, post-shutdown New York economy, where commuters return to work, students go back to school and tourists come to see Broadway shows again.

Many issuers face uncertainty, as states and cities grapple with how to fill a sudden budget hole and move forward, in an environment of uncertainty about what the economic rebound will look like and how it will impact future revenues.

The issuers of state and local debt are facing a crisis unlike any other, with the sudden loss of revenues nationally from income taxes, sales taxes, parking, and even hotel room taxes. Collectively these governments are seeking another $750 billion from the federal government, a request that is expected to pit Republicans against Democrats and red states against blue states.

New Jersey's Gov. Phil Murphy told CNBC this week that the state's problem has been made worse because revenues have "fallen off a table" and that it will run out of cash in four to six weeks. At that point, it will be hard to pay police and teachers, he said.

Moody's says the states alone will lose out on $160 billion in revenues from 2019 to fiscal year 2021, which for many states begins on July 1. Moody's said there is a $200 billion shortfall in what the states expected to receive.  "Even with an assumed revenue upturn beginning for most states in fiscal 2022, our base scenario does not result in a recovery to fiscal 2019 levels by fiscal 2024," according to Moody's.


Political headwinds
Strategists expect to see a wave of credit downgrades, some defaults and also political headwinds as they try to adjust spending or raise taxes to make up their shortfalls.

McConnell has already thrown out the suggestion that states should go bankrupt, and his office issued statements calling the request for relief "blue state bailouts." His comment drew protest from governors, including a sharply worded reaction from the Democratic governors of New York and New Jersey. His comment was also criticized by Maryland's Republican governor, and is seen as unlikely to gain traction in Congress, which would have to change existing law to allow for bankruptcies. Unlike local governments, states are prohibited from filing for bankruptcy.

Strategists say ratings agencies may not catch up with some issues until later on, and they point out that some cities and states are more reliant on sales taxes than others. Some are dependent on tourism and revenues from hotels. In the case of Las Vegas, it relies on hotels and casinos. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/the-3point8-trillion-municipal-bond-market-rocked-by-the-coronavirus-downturn-is-facing-a-key-test.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 29, 2020, 09:23:19 AM
'Economy is going to be very slow coming out of the recession:' Strategist
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-is-going-to-be-very-slow-coming-out-of-the-recession-strategist-201432453.html
Quote
Investors may be ahead of themselves if they’re expecting an economic V-shaped recovery, according to one top strategist.

“We've got this epic battle between monetary and fiscal policy on one side, and weak economic earnings, earnings data on the other,” Tony Dwyer, managing director and chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, told Yahoo Finance.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: jjj18641 on April 29, 2020, 12:21:58 PM
While we ponder the length of time until a vaccine is protective enough to safely and widely re-open the economy in some form, consider that for a significant proportion of even the developed world (in this example, the U.S.), it will never be:  “Nearly 14,000 votes and 69.2% of Liz's followers said they will NOT get a COVID-19 vaccine once available.”

Liz Wheeler is from OAN, the “One America News” Network, a conservative, far right-wing news and opinion channel that regularly features pro-Donald Trump stories.  The channel has been noted for promoting falsehoods and conspiracy theories.

From: https://twitter.com/andrewkimmel/status/1254909408905097216
And wikipedia.


seeing the word "news" being used to define that organization makes me twitch
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 29, 2020, 01:06:14 PM
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.

Interesting article, Tom, not written by a nut. The piece essentially sums up the myriad ways humanity's darker angels may respond to the intertwined issues of the structural instabilities already in place before the pandemic, the pandemic itself, and the coming additional environmental challenges that need to be considered as the world responds. Worth reading.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2020, 01:46:36 PM
Texas has mandated some rather well thought out restrictions for reopening:

Texas restaurants, retailers and other businesses can reopen Friday. Here's the rules they have to follow.
Parties of six or less, disposable menus and limited capacity are among the new rules businesses will follow if they open this Friday.
April 28, 2020
Quote
Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to reopen Texas will allow some businesses — like retail stores, restaurants, movie theaters and malls — to open as early as Friday, with new rules outlined by the governor's taskforce.

Abbott also said a second wave of openings and looser restrictions that will include barbershops, hair salons, bars and gyms could go into effect as early as May 18, as long as the state sees "two weeks of data to confirm no flare-up of COVID-19."

Here’s how Friday’s reopening plan will work.

Retailers and Malls
Malls and retailers across Texas can reopen but must keep capacity limited to 25%. But for rural counties with less than five confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, retailers can serve up to 50% of their regular capacity.

Areas including food court dining space, play areas and interactive displays must remain closed.

Retailers can also offer customers in-store pick up or get items delivered by mail or to their doorstep.

The task force recommends stores implement either specific pick up times for at-risk customers or that workers take their purchase out to the customer’s car.

Restaurants
On Friday, dine-in service is back on at restaurants but capacity is limited to 25%. But for rural counties with less than five confirmed cases of the new coronavirus, restaurants can serve up to 50% of their regular capacity.

Bars are to remain closed, even if they offer food.

Only six people will be allowed at a table and parties will be seated at least 6 feet apart from each other.  Patrons who choose to dine-in at a restaurant should expect a few new practices: disposable menus, condiments served upon request and in single-use portions (a side of ketchup instead of a ketchup bottle), buffets that aren’t self serve and a hand sanitizing station at the restaurant entrance.
...
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/28/texas-reopening-restaurants-greg-abbott/
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on April 29, 2020, 01:59:18 PM
Texas has mandated some rather well thought out restrictions for reopening:

Texas restaurants, retailers and other businesses can reopen Friday. Here's the rules they have to follow.
Parties of six or less, disposable menus and limited capacity are among the new rules businesses will follow if they open this Friday.

Only six people will be allowed at a table and parties will be seated at least 6 feet apart from each other.  Patrons who choose to dine-in at a restaurant should expect a few new practices: disposable menus, condiments served upon request and in single-use portions (a side of ketchup instead of a ketchup bottle), buffets that aren’t self serve and a hand sanitizing station at the restaurant entrance.
... [/size]
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/04/28/texas-reopening-restaurants-greg-abbott/
[/quote]

Man, the restaurant business is really tough in normal times. There is no way a restaurant can be profitable under these circumstance. If one could, it would be with a dramatically reduced workforce.  I guess as a stopgap to limp along until a more full re-opening is possible, this could help.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on April 29, 2020, 02:23:57 PM
The Coming Greater Depression of the 2020s
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/greater-depression-covid19-headwinds-by-nouriel-roubini-2020-04
Quote
While there is never a good time for a pandemic, the COVID-19 crisis has arrived at a particularly bad moment for the global economy. The world has long been drifting into a perfect storm of financial, political, socioeconomic, and environmental risks, all of which are now growing even more acute.

Quote
These ten risks, already looming large before COVID-19 struck, now threaten to fuel a perfect storm that sweeps the entire global economy into a decade of despair. By the 2030s, technology and more competent political leadership may be able to reduce, resolve, or minimize many of these problems, giving rise to a more inclusive, cooperative, and stable international order. But any happy ending assumes that we find a way to survive the coming Greater Depression.

Interesting article, Tom, not written by a nut. The piece essentially sums up the myriad ways humanity's darker angels may respond to the intertwined issues of the structural instabilities already in place before the pandemic, the pandemic itself, and the coming additional environmental challenges that need to be considered as the world responds. Worth reading.

Agree, good reading. Nouriel Roubini was called Dr.Doom after the financial crisis. The nickname isn't really justified although he admittedly leans to the darker side of things. Nevertheless he is one those extremely sharp figures who have the ability to spot and pronounce the obvious trends most of us fail to see.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2020, 06:01:33 PM
Not just “work from home.”  Business travel will change markedly.
Quote
Even after plants reopen and life returns to something that resembles normal, a lot will remain different. Covid-19 has turbocharged trends toward automation and digitization.

“Let me give you a quick vignette,” Culp says . GE’s renewable power business had to do some field-service work in Montenegro, but there was no way to get the experts to the site. GE “jerry-rigged” an augmented-reality headset to bring the site to its experts. No one had to cross borders to conduct the work. “We are getting years of change under the pressure cooker of the recent moment.” adds the new CEO.

It isn’t only office workers that will see their commuting and travel patterns changed in coming months and years. Manufacturing employees and maintenance staff will have to adapt too. ...
https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-wants-the-u-s-to-go-back-to-work-heres-how-it-will-happen-51588173303
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2020, 09:05:11 PM
Over 50% of U.S. malls with department stores are predicted to close by 2021, real estate services firm says
Quote
First, the department store closes. Then, the apparel shops try to scoot out of deals. This is a one-two punch that could trigger a wave of malls shutting for good over the next 12 months.

More than 50% of all the malls anchored by department stores in America could close permanently by the end of 2021, a new report by Green Street Advisors predicts. There are about 1,000 malls still open in the U.S. And roughly 60% of those have department store retailers, such as Macy's, as anchor tenants, the commercial real estate services firm said.

The coronavirus pandemic that has slammed the U.S. economy is speeding up the demise of department stores. As Covid-19 forced the likes of J.C. Penney, Macy's, Nordstrom and Neiman Marcus to shut stores, the circumstances became even more dire for these already struggling companies. Slumping sales and an overhang of debt could push some into bankruptcy. Strained for cash, these retailers are scrambling for additional liquidity. More department store closures are inevitable. And that will put another level of pressure on mall owners.
...
Mall owners' finances are also being strained, as a number of tenants including Gap are not paying rent during the pandemic. That could mean some landlords aren't able to make their own mortgage payments, and end up having to hand the keys to malls back to lenders. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/50percent-of-all-these-malls-forecast-to-close-by-2021-green-street-advisors-says.html


—- Edit, added:
Hertz in talks with creditors to avoid debt default, faces May 4 deadline
Quote
(Reuters) - Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ.N) said on Wednesday it was in talks with its lenders to avoid defaulting on debt related to its rental vehicle fleet, after skipping a payment that was due April 27.

Hertz, whose Hertz Corp subsidiary operates the Hertz, Dollar and Thrifty rental brands, said in a regulatory filing that it had suffered a “sudden and dramatic negative impact” on its business due to the coronavirus pandemic, which has crushed demand for rental cars as people cancel travel and stay at home.
...
Even before the pandemic, Hertz and its peers were under financial pressure as travelers shifted to ride-hailing services such as Uber Technologies Inc.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hertzglo-hldg-debt/hertz-in-talks-with-creditors-to-avoid-debt-default-faces-may-4-deadline-idUSKBN22B302
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2020, 09:14:26 PM
Fed pledges to keep rates near zero until full employment, inflation come back
Quote
The Federal Reserve painted a dour picture of current conditions and pledged Wednesday to continue its historically aggressive policy stance until it is comfortable that the U.S. economy is back on its feet.

Following this week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the central bank said it would maintain its current interest rate target between 0% and 0.25%.

"The ongoing public health crisis will weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term," the committee said in its post-meeting statement. "The Committee expects to maintain this target range until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."

The commitment represents a pledge to hold rates near zero and keep them there until full employment returns and inflation gets back to around the Fed's long-stated 2% goal.

"We're going to not be in any hurry to withdraw these measures or to lift off. We're going to wait until we're quite confident that the economy is well on the road to recovery," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in a post-meeting news conference.

There was no expression in the statement that the Fed feels confident about what its moves will lead to in terms of economic growth. Instead, the committee said it will continue to monitor conditions "including information related to public health, as well as global developments and muted inflation pressures, and will use its tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/fed-decision-fed-pledges-to-keep-rates-near-zero-until-full-employment-inflation-come-back.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 29, 2020, 11:38:04 PM
Economic Damage Could Be Worse Without Lockdown and Social Distancing, Study Finds
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-economic-worse-lockdown-social-distancing.html

New research from the University of Cambridge suggests that there is no absolute trade-off between the economy and human health—and that the economic price of inaction could be twice as high as that of a "structured lockdown."

A Cambridge economist, together with researchers at the US Federal Reserve Board, has combined macroeconomics with aspects of epidemiology to develop a model for the economic consequences of social distancing.

It divides the working population into "core workers"—those in healthcare as well as food and transportation, sanitation and energy supply, among others—and then everyone else, and models the spread of the virus if no action is taken.

"Without public health restrictions, the random spread of the disease will inevitably hit sectors and industries that are essential for the economy to run," said co-author Prof Giancarlo Corsetti, from Cambridge's Faculty of Economics.

"Labour shortfalls among core workers in particular strip more value from the economy. As essential team members within this core sector drop out of the workforce, it impairs production far more than losing those in other areas of the economy."

By separating the core and non-core workers, the study suggests that the economy would shrink by 30% or more without lockdown and social distancing. "By ignoring this division in the workforce, we may badly underestimate the true depth of economic damage," Corsetti said.

Using data from the US Bureau of Labour Statistics, the researchers then quantified the share of workers who could "reasonably keep performing occupational tasks at home": 15% of those in core sectors, and 40% of everyone else currently working—along with 30% of all non-working age people, from children to the retired. This puts a third of the entire population on lockdown.

In this scenario, the infection curve is smoothed out through social distancing, and the rate of loss in economic output is around 15%, just half the level of damage if no action is taken to prevent disease spread.

Sickness rates for core workers would be the same as the rest of the population, the high levels of social distancing elsewhere act as a shield.

"This overarching policy flattens the curve," said Corsetti. "The peak of the infected share of the population drops from 40% to about 15%. However, this is still far too high given the capacities of healthcare systems."

So the researchers also modelled a scenario where infection rates are kept to a manageable level for healthcare services of under 1.5% of the population for 18 months—the length of time many believe it will take for a vaccine to arrive.

This would mean lockdown shares of 25% of core workers, 60% of workers outside of core, and 47% of non-working age people. Under this scenario, the economy contracts by 20%.

The study also looked at a very strict lockdown—40% of core workers and 90% each of non-working age and everyone else—that lasts for just three months. Such a scenario simply delays the infection rates but prevents "herd immunity," creating an economic drop comparable to that of taking no action in the first place.

"As well as containing the loss of life, committing to long-term social distancing structured to keep core workers active can significantly smooth the economic costs of the disease," said Corsetti.

"The more we can target lockdown policies toward sections of the population who are not active in the labour market, or who work outside of the core sector, the greater the benefit to the economy," he said.

https://www.inet.econ.cam.ac.uk/working-paper-pdfs/wp2017.pdf
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 30, 2020, 02:59:39 PM
Small Farmers, Already Stressed and Underfunded, Struggle for Federal Coronavirus Relief
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/29/small-farms-coronavirus-aid/

Before Coronavirus hit, farmers in the U.S. were already hurting from years of falling food prices, severe weather, and, more recently, President Donald Trump’s trade war. “We’ve had a record number of farm bankruptcies [in the U.S.], total farm debt is at $425 billion, [and farmer] incomes have fallen by about half since 2013,” said Eric Deeble, policy director at the National Sustainable Agriculture Coalition, which supports small and mid-sized family farms.

Now, with the global pandemic closing factories and restaurants and disrupting supply chains, already stressed farms are grappling with lower demand and fewer markets to sell in, as well as a presidential administration that favors relief for big businesses over small. Small farmers in particular — those who sell directly to farmers markets, schools, and other local food hubs — are facing an existential crisis, as they face slim odds of accessing competitive federal stimulus money.

They have reason to be pessimistic. In recent years, federal subsidies to help struggling farmers have flowed almost exclusively to large corporate farms. Of the roughly $28 billion the Trump administration has distributed to food producers to offset losses from his trade wars, almost all went to big farms.

Advocates for small farmers say this is driven in part by the preference of Trump’s agriculture secretary, Sonny Purdue, who has encouraged farmers to get bigger farms if they wanted to stay in business. “Big get bigger and small go out … and that’s what we’ve seen,” he told a group of Wisconsin dairy farmers in 2018, echoing Richard Nixon’s agriculture secretary, who infamously told farmers in the 1970s to “get big or get out.” While 91 percent of U.S. farms are small — defined by the federal government as an operation with gross cash income under $250,000 — large farms account for 85 percent of the country’s farm production.

... While lawmakers did not include all that advocates pressed for — like emergency food purchases from small processors and direct payments to small farms — the CARES Act did allocate $9.5 billion to farmers and said some (unspecified portion) of that amount should go to “producers that supply local food systems, including farmers markets, restaurants, and schools.”

But in the weeks following the CARES Act, farmers struggled to access any relief, as the agriculture aid stalled and many farmers found themselves ineligible for the Small Business Administration emergency loans. On April 10, 33 senators sent a bipartisan letter to Purdue, urging the USDA to follow the CARES Act and distribute federal aid to small farmers specifically. A week later, when the USDA finally announced how it planned to allocate the $9.5 billion from the CARES Act, it appeared that no money would be reserved specifically for small farmers.

... “Bailout money always goes to the big farmers, the people who produce soy and crops and sell into commodity markets,” said John Peck, executive director of Family Farm Defenders, a national organization that supports sustainable agriculture. “This is all part of our country’s cheap food policy where we basically subsidize capital-intensive, large-scale industrial farming.”

... California has deemed farmers markets essential, but other states have shut them down or left it more ambiguous. Advocates say open-air markets can serve as a safer way to buy groceries during the pandemic.

“If farmers markets go out of business that means local farmers lose access to those consumers,” ... it is typically much harder for small farmers to sell their products to large grocery stores.

Peck of Family Farm Defenders said he worries this pandemic will be exploited by big corporations to crush the local food movement and correspondingly wreak further damage on the climate. “To feed the world and cool the planet, we need to move away from industrial agribusiness,” he said.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 30, 2020, 03:17:56 PM
US Weekly Jobless Claims Hit 3.84 Million, Topping 30 Million Over the Last 6 Weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106514269-158824998540220200430_initial_unemployment_claims_april_25.png?v=1588250083&w=678&h=381)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 30, 2020, 08:14:01 PM
If anyone you know needs grocery assistance Feeding America is a very good resource, for help finding your local food bank and for a lot more than just food.

https://www.feedingamerica.org/need-help-find-food

The Feeding America network of 200 food banks and 60,000 food pantries and meal programs serve virtually every community in all 50 states, Washington, D.C. and Puerto Rico. Food is free without any expectation of donation or repayment.

Whether you are here for the first time or have used food assistance before the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of federal programs are available to help make ends meet during difficult times. State and federal programs have expanded to help even more people.

- SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps)
- Child Nutrition Programs
- WIC (Women and Infant Children)

Navigating all of these changes to federal programs can be difficult at an already stressful time in your life. We are here to help you make sense of it all. We answered some of the most frequently asked questions about changes to food assistance programs during COVID-19.

-----------------------------

Mutual Aid Networks Are Distributing Food With Tech That Works For Everyone
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/g5xzg9/mutual-aid-networks-are-distributing-food-with-tech-that-works-for-everyone

As the epicenter of COVID-19 in the United States, New York City has quickly become one of the country’s largest hubs of mutual aid, with residents redistributing food, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment to people in need during the crisis. Unlike charities, mutual aid efforts involve groups of people pooling their resources to help each other directly instead of waiting on assistance from governments, corporations, and other institutions.

Virtually all the tech platforms we use on a daily basis were designed with profit-seeking business in mind, and more often than not, their usage reflects those intentions. But in response to COVID-19, mutual aid groups have begun using those platforms as a springboard for more robust systems designed entirely around helping and connecting people throughout the crisis.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on April 30, 2020, 09:54:14 PM
Georgia Ditches Road Testing New Drivers Amid COVID-19 Pandemic
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/04/georgia-ditches-road-testing-new-drivers-amid-pandemic/

On April 23, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp issued an executive order packed with directives. Many of these are aimed at businesss that want to reopen, for Kemp has been ahead of the curve—even compared to President Trump—when it comes to relaxing rules meant to prevent the spread of the virus. But among the new instructions for businesses like cinemas and tattoo parlors that want to reopen, one of them announces that the state's Department of Driver Services is temporarily dropping driving tests for new drivers.

"[A]pplicants for a driver's license shall not be required to complete a comprehensive on-the-road driving test, provided all other requirements outlined in Code Section 40-5-27 are met," says the executive order.

As long as a driver has a valid instruction permit and has completed 40 hours of supervised driving, they can convert their permit to a driver's license online, at least until this executive order expires in mid-May. And those 40 hours of supervised driving are actually on the honor system, since the state doesn't appear to have a way to check that the new driver has actually completed that requirement.

Last year, Atlanta, the largest city in Georgia, was ranked 178 out of 200 US cities for safe driving by the insurance company Allstate.

(https://jeffreyhill.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341d417153ef0120a61f8e5e970c-pi)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 01, 2020, 01:36:21 AM
Wells Fargo will no longer accept applications for home equity lines of credit
Quote
Wells Fargo, one of the largest home lenders in the U.S., is stepping away from the market for home equity lines of credit because of uncertainty tied to the coronavirus pandemic.

The bank informed its mortgage personnel of the news Thursday in a conference call, according to a source, and the move was confirmed by company spokesman Tom Goyda.

"Wells Fargo Home Lending will temporarily stop accepting applications for all new home equity lines of credit after April 30," Goyda said in an emailed statement. The choice "reflects careful consideration of current market conditions and the uncertainty around the timing and scope of the anticipated economic recovery."

Banks have been retreating from loans tied to housing as the coronavirus pandemic impacts home values and the creditworthiness of borrowers. Earlier this month, JPMorgan Chase said it was dropping HELOCs and also tightened conditions in which it will make mortgages, requiring higher FICO scores and bigger down payments for new loans. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/wells-fargo-says-it-will-no-longer-accept-applications-for-home-equity-lines-of-credit.html
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 01, 2020, 07:46:56 AM
Meatpacking Plant in Colorado Sees Uptick in Cases as Operations Restart
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-latest-updates-asia-europe.html

The number of reported coronavirus cases more than doubled over a few days at a JBS meatpacking plant in Colorado after reopening nearly a week ago, Reuters reported citing a union official.

The plant in Greeley began operations again last Friday after two weeks of closure as the company sought to stem an outbreak among workers, Reuters reported. The number of confirmed cases at the plant spiked to 245 on Wednesday — from 120 on Sunday, a union spokesperson told Reuters.

“The uptick in cases in a matter of days shows how serious this crisis is and the dangers that workers are facing every day just trying to do their jobs,” Kim Cordova, president of United Food and Commercial Workers, told Reuters.

It comes as President Donald Trump this week invoked the Defense Production Act to mandate that meatpacking plants should remain open, as “closures threaten the continued functioning of the national meat and poultry supply chain.”

-----------------------------

Tons of Fruit and Flowers Are At Risk of Spoiling As Virus Disrupts Supply Chains
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-disrupts-supply-demand-farmers-throw-flowers-milk-fruit.html

Farmers globally are grappling with excess supplies of their products as their harvests cannot get to their intended customers due to disruptions from lockdowns and movement restrictions.

Some have turned to creative ways to get rid of excess supplies. Belgians have been asked to eat more fries, as more than 750,000 tons of potatoes are at risk of being thrown away; Indian farmers are feeding their cows strawberries, which are normally meant for tourists and ice-cream producers; while companies in the Netherlands are buying up flowers to give away to employees.

“The lockdowns that we are all experiencing across the globe are causing a disruption of labor, so we are not getting people into the fields to produce on farms,” said Michael Strano, a lead principal investigator for disruptive and sustainable technology in agriculture at the Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology.

“It’s a disruption of worldwide transport and supply chains that is causing this unusual phenomenon of shortages in some areas and excess in others,” he added.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 01, 2020, 03:08:59 PM
While local officials beg governors to close meat packing plants that are the center of several of the biggest COVID-19 outbreaks in the U.S., the federal government declares meatpacking plants can’t be forced to close, and state governors threaten workers to come to work despite the risk, or else their unemployment benefits will be eliminated. 
Edit:  Affected Republican-led states do not even have stay-home or restrict-businesses orders.
“Cray” means crazy.

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/republicans-press-re-open-strategy-as-coronavirus-digs-into-midwest-82791493891
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 02, 2020, 03:12:01 AM
Mortgage Bailout Program Balloons Again As More Homeowners Put Off Payments
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-more-homeowners-delay-mortgage-payments-in-bailout.html

A growing number of borrowers are delaying monthly mortgage payments as part of the government's bailout program, as the ranks of the unemployed continued to swell due to the coronavirus outbreak.

As of Thursday, more than 3.8 million homeowners, or 7.3% of all active mortgages, were in forbearance, according to mortgage data and analytics firm Black Knight.

The federal program allows borrowers to delay up to a year's worth of payments, though they must be made up later through either repayment plans or mortgage modifications, according to CNBC's Diana Olick

---------------------------------

More Big Employers Are Talking About Permanent Work-From-Home Positions
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/major-companies-talking-about-permanent-work-from-home-positions.html

Companies have been forced to embrace remote working amid stay-at-home orders for all nonessential positions and businesses.

With proof that productivity does not suffer, more major employers, including Mondelez, Nationwide, and Barclays, talk about a permanent shift to work from home and reduced office space.

------------------------------

Target, Walmart workers and others plan 'sickout' protests over coronavirus safety
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/target-walmart-workers-and-others-plan-sickout-protests-over-coronavirus-safety.html

Workers are planning to call out of work today as part of a nationwide employee "sickout" involving companies like Target, Whole Foods, Amazon, Instacart, FedEx, and Walmart.

They are protesting the slashing of hours, unstable schedules, and the need for greater health benefits. They are also asking for greater safety protections from the coronavirus at their jobs.

----------------------------------

Germany's Economic Response Is An Example for the World, Union Chief Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/coronavirus-germany-ilo-chief-says-it-set-a-global-economic-example.html

Germany's approach to employment in the coronavirus crisis is an example of how the world can deal with the economic fallout of the pandemic, the head of the United Nation's labor agency said.

Guy Ryder, the director-general of the International Labour Organization (ILO), told CNBC that under Germany's "Kurzarbeit," or "short-time work," program workers are sent home or see their hours slashed but are paid around two-thirds of their salary by the state.

----------------------------

US Consumers Empty Shelves Amid Concerns Over Covid-19 Meat Shortages
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/01/us-meat-shortages-coronavirus-production-trump-order

Agriculture department reported beef production down nearly 25% compared to last year, and pork production down 15%

US meat production has continued to decline as the coronavirus crisis forces the shutdown of more processing facilities, sparking fears of shortages at grocery stores nationwide.

While Sonny Perdue, the agriculture secretary, has said the US has “plenty of food for all of [its] citizens”, fewer pigs are being slaughtered at processing plants, down by nearly 50% since mid-March.

... “I wouldn’t say the food system is breaking, but at least the meat sector is in real serious, critical condition at the moment,” said Jayson Lusk, the head of the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University, told USA Today.

Fears of meat shortages have had shoppers looking for alternatives to retail grocers. Restaurants and food service vendors have reported shortages as processors shift to selling directly to consumers.

------------------------------------

US Trucking Squeezed by Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/recession-proof-trucking-squeezed-coronavirus-200425222819166.html

Lockdowns to stem the spread of COVID-19 are reducing loads for truckers as well as the rates they are paid.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 03, 2020, 12:30:40 AM
(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/f839e30/2147483647/resize/550x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fa1%2F40%2Ff47b7f1349ec8077cf3cdf7ffff8%2F2-john-darkow-columbia-missourian.jpg)

(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/4751d1a/2147483647/resize/550x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2Fb0%2F0d%2F9eb41c9f4c7aab2fa72e7e87bbff%2F4-kal-the-economist.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 03, 2020, 05:13:49 PM
Fiercest Economic Collapse in History is Best Month for Stock Market
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/fiercest-economic-collapse-in-history-is-best-month-for-stock-market/
Quote
After years of climbing, there’s a sudden crash of 20% or more followed by a rally about halfway back to the last record high, and then reality kicks back in with the worst yet to come.

Here, for example, is the infamous crash of 1929 and the stock market that followed during the ensuing Great Depression:


Quote
Although the stock market just experienced its best month in decades, the rally in 1929 was the best in decades, too.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 03, 2020, 06:34:15 PM
6 Reasons Why This Is (Or Isn't) The Worst Economy Since The Great Depression
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/6-reasons-why-or-isnt-worst-economy-great-depression
Quote
Why this is the worst economy since the Great Depression
I have six reasons.

Reason #1: This is a “double-recession.”
Reason #2: Pandemic-related business costs could last for years.
Reason #3: The Fed only had two bullets in the interest-rate chamber (the two March rate cuts).
Reason #4: Bankruptcies could be more severe than in any other post-WW2 recession.
Reason #5: Meet the zombies—next generation.
Reason #6: Inflation risks are unusually high for a recession.

Why this isn’t the worst economy since the Great Depression
Reason #1: The big-4 “home” risks—home prices, home mortgage debt, home building and home equity extraction—are relatively nonthreatening.
Reason #2: Sterilization? What’s that?
Reason #3: Banks have more capital than they did in 2008.
Reason #4: Some areas of the economy are seeing stellar demand.
Reason #5: Furloughs, not layoffs.
Reason #6: Helicopter money!
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 11:09:39 AM
Three Reasons Why The Eurozone Recovery Will Be Poor
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/three-reasons-why-the-eurozone-recovery-will-be-poor/
Quote
The eurozone was already in a severe slowdown in 2019.
The banking sector is still weak.
Most of the recovery plans go to government current spending, and tax increases will surely impact growth and jobs.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: be cause on May 04, 2020, 01:00:38 PM
  ^^ a glance at European shares .. down @ 3% this am , while UK's down 0.3% .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 01:31:44 PM
Don't Expect a Return to Normal This Year
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/dont-expect-a-return-to-normal-this-year
Quote
Those struggling to make rent or payments will have had the scare of their lives. Attitudes about the need to save will change. More savings means less spending and lower profits for businesses.
Car buying, travel, dining out, etc. will not return to normal this year or next after this kind of economic hit. The wealth impact alone will take years if ever, given boomer retirement needs.
On the corporate side, kiss goodbye just-in-time production strategies with dependencies on China and no inventories. This will lower corporate earnings.
To reduce expenses, frequent business travel will give way to more teleconferencing. This mean lower hotel bills  and less air travel.
More people will work at home permanently. This will lower gasoline usage and dining out.
Even boomers who did not do much online shopping had to learn new tricks. Many will now be hooked on the convenience of Amazon and will not go back to their old ways. This is another kick in the teeth to struggling malls.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 01:40:12 PM
Investing Legend Sees A Second Great Depression For Stocks By 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/investing-legend-sees-second-great-depression-stocks-2023
Quote
If history is a guide, stocks have further to go before they hit bottom. That’s Sokoloff’s view, anyway. Then as now, he says, “central bankers were pushing on a string”, trying in vain to whip up a real economic recovery with monetary policy.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2020, 03:41:08 PM
J. Crew files for bankruptcy as preppy retailer succumbs to COVID-19 fallout
Quote
J. Crew is the first high-profile retailer to seek bankruptcy protection since the coronavirus spread across the globe, prompting government officials to order businesses deemed nonessential to temporarily close.

It is likely not the last. Department store chains Neiman Marcus Group and J.C. Penney Co Inc are contemplating bankruptcy filings amid the crisis, Reuters previously reported.

Before the pandemic, J. Crew was already struggling along with other traditional brick-and-mortar retailers to compete amid a consumer shift to online shopping.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-j-crew-group-bankruptcy-idUSKBN22G0O4


Tyson faces safety costs, sales hit from coronavirus
Quote
(Reuters) - Tyson Foods Inc said on Monday it would temporarily close plants as needed in the battle with the coronavirus outbreak and expects meat sales to fall in the second half of this year as shutdowns hammer restaurants and other food outlets.

Tyson said demand from retailers for its beef, pork and poultry products had jumped in recent weeks but was not enough to offset the loss in sales to restaurants and caterers hit by strict lockdown measure to control the spread of the virus.

The company has been among those at the heart of a row over employee safety, after President Trump ordered processing plants to stay open to protect U.S. food supplies, drawing a backlash from unions that said at-risk workers need more protection.

Tyson, Smithfield Foods Inc and JBS USA have all had to shutter plants in recent weeks as the respiratory illness spread widely through the meat-processing facilities.

“We are experiencing multiple challenges related to the pandemic. These challenges are anticipated to increase our operating costs and negatively impact our volumes for the remainder of fiscal 2020.”

“Operationally, we have and expect to continue to face slowdowns and temporary idling of production facilities from team member shortages or choices we make to ensure operational safety,” the company said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tyson-foods-results-idUSKBN22G1DI

—-
Business interruption insurance.  Will claimants need to have suffered physical damage? 
How the insurance industry may change as a result of the coronavirus crisis
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/05/04/coronavirus-pandemic-insurance-industry-squawk-box.html
5 min CNBC discussion video.

—-
“It started as just a temporary downswing but it’s the downswing that never really stopped,” said oilfield services worker Nils MacArthur. He is thinking of leaving the industry after more than 20 years in oil.
“I don’t really have control over this anymore,” he said. “If this is an act of God, maybe I need to find another career because I guess God’s had enough of the oilfield.”


A look inside smaller oil boardrooms, in case you haven’t been following the Oil and Gas thread.
'Like watching a train wreck': The coronavirus effect on North Dakota shale oilfields
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-shale-north-dakota-insight-idUSKBN22G1C2
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2020, 07:17:51 PM
The cafeteria — and other parts of office life — will change dramatically after coronavirus
Pre-packaged food from touchless vending machines.  Bringing insulated lunch boxes and insulated mugs to work instead of using the office refrigerator.
Quote
There will definitely not be doughnuts at the next in-office meeting. But the real question is whether there will be any people at the next in-office meeting. New tech-enabled employees will increasingly choose asynchronous collaboration, which enables them to work together but not be together. And when they do meet, gatherings by video will be commonplace.
Quote
After COVID-19, employees will be empowered to WFH, so they do not have to use a sick day, the second-most-reported reason for showing up to work sick. Bosses and teammates will be ever more empowered to send a sick person home to work. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cafeteria-and-other-parts-of-office-life-will-change-dramatically-after-coronavirus-2020-05-04
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2020, 07:48:24 PM
Britain says more than a fifth of workers furloughed as of Sunday
Quote
LONDON (Reuters) - More than a fifth of employees in Britain have been furloughed, with 8 billion pounds ($9.9 billion) claimed from the government to sustain their wages during the coronavirus lockdown, tax authorities said on Monday.

HM Revenue and Customs said on Twitter that 6.3 million workers from 800,000 employers had been furloughed, citing figures up to midnight (2300 GMT) on Sunday.

That accounts for 23% of Britain’s 27.9 million employees, according to the most recent labour market data.
Under the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, which is central to efforts to slow a rise in unemployment, the state pays 80% of workers’ pay up to 2,500 pounds a month.

The scheme is due to run until the end of June and is likely to cost the public finances around 39 billion pounds, based on an assumption that 30% of employees are enrolled, Britain’s official budget forecasters have said.

The figures came as pensions minister Therese Coffey said the government received 1.8 million claims for welfare payments between March 16 and the end of April via its ‘Universal Credit’ benefits system.
Universal Credit benefits are paid to people in work as well as those who have lost their jobs.
Coffey said that overall, the volume of welfare claims had been six times bigger than pre-coronavirus during that period, and that in one particular week the increase had been tenfold.


Last week an official survey showed two thirds of British firms had asked for public money to pay staff they have temporarily laid off, pointing to a strong take-up for a key part of the government’s plan to soften the economic impact of the coronavirus. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-furlough/britain-says-more-than-a-fifth-of-workers-furloughed-as-of-sunday-idUSKBN22G22D
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2020, 08:10:54 PM
To save the economy, the Federal Reserve should drop interest rates to less than zero
Published: May 4, 2020 at 1:22 p.m. ET
Project Syndicate By Kenneth Rogoff
Quote
Negative rates would shield many companies, states and cities from default
For those who viewed negative interest rates as a bridge too far for central banks, it might be time to think again.

In the U.S., the Federal Reserve — supported both implicitly and explicitly by the Treasury — is on track to backstop virtually every private, state and city credit in the economy. Many other governments have felt compelled to take similar steps. A once-in-a-century (we hope) crisis calls for massive government intervention, but does that have to mean dispensing with market-based allocation mechanisms?

Until inflation and real interest rates rise from the grave, only a policy of deep negative interest rates can do the job.
Blanket debt guarantees are a great device if one believes that recent market stress was just a short-term liquidity crunch, soon to be alleviated by a strong sustained post-COVID-19 recovery. But what if the rapid recovery fails to materialize? What if, as one suspects, it takes years for the U.S. and global economy to claw back to 2019 levels? If so, there is little hope that all businesses will remain viable, or that every state and local government will remain solvent.

A better bet is that nothing will be the same. Wealth will be destroyed on a catastrophic scale, and policymakers will need to find a way to ensure that, at least in some cases, creditors take part of the hit, a process that will play out over years of negotiation and litigation. For bankruptcy lawyers and lobbyists, it will be a bonanza, part of which will come from pressing taxpayers to honor bailout guarantees. Such a scenario would be an unholy mess.

Below zero
...
A number of important steps are required to make deep negative rates feasible and effective. The most important, which no central bank (including the European Central Bank) has yet taken, is to preclude large-scale hoarding of cash by financial firms, pension funds, and insurance companies. Various combinations of regulation, a time-varying fee for large-scale re-deposits of cash at the central bank, and phasing out large-denomination banknotes should do the trick.

It is not rocket science (or should I say virology?). With large-scale cash hoarding taken off the table, the issue of pass-through of negative rates to bank depositors — the most sensible concern — would be eliminated. Even without preventing wholesale hoarding (which is risky and expensive), European banks have increasingly been able to pass on negative rates to large depositors. And governments would not be giving up much by shielding small depositors entirely from negative interest rates. Again, given adequate time and planning, doing this is straightforward. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/to-save-the-economy-the-federal-reserve-should-drop-interest-rates-to-less-than-zero-2020-05-04
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2020, 08:34:55 PM
UK:  People are so scared that neighbors will spread the virus that more than 200,000 have called the police to report rule breaking by their fellow citizens
Quote
A campaign to keep Britons locked down and protected from the coronavirus may have proved too successful, according to new research, with many now scared to leave their homes.

A leading Cambridge University statistician warned that the government’s stay-at-home message had caused many people to grow “particularly anxious” about going out.

“Many people are definitely overanxious about their chance of both getting the virus and the harm they might come to if they do get it,” Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter told the BBC.
...
Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos Mori, said: “Clear majorities of Britons are nervous about using public transport again or going to bars, restaurants or live music and sporting events.

“These numbers suggest that it will take some time for parts of the British economy to return to any semblance of normality, even after lockdown has ended.”
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-day-after-elon-musk-denounced-coronavirus-lockdowns-as-infringements-of-freedom-research-shows-britons-are-too-scared-to-leave-their-homes-anyway-2020-05-01
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 10:10:14 PM
Just a little reminder:
The last time we had a global Depression the way it was ended was to have an all out global war.
Think about it.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Rodius on May 05, 2020, 04:18:21 AM
Just a little reminder:
The last time we had a global Depression the way it was ended was to have an all out global war.
Think about it.

Not really.
The Depression set up the scene for evil politicians to exploit the masses to their own end... things like nationalism, protecting the wealthy and charisma based politics.

The war after the depression was not caused by the economy..... it was caused by evil minded people who used the situation to their on ends.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: oren on May 05, 2020, 07:57:28 AM
The stage in Germany was set long before the Great Depression. The hyperinflation which gutted german society was over by 1923-4.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on May 05, 2020, 08:26:11 AM
WWII ended the Great Depression in the US. But that's not the cause of the war because it started years before the US involvement.

The main reason for the Second World War is the First World War and it's peace treaty.
Title: Re: Global recession , supply issues and other Covid-19 consequences
Post by: Neven on May 05, 2020, 11:22:29 AM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZZVv937-D4
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 05, 2020, 11:35:13 AM
Pork Production Down 50%, Tyson Says, Despite Trump's Order to Keep Meat Plants Open
https://www.sfgate.com/business/article/Pork-production-down-50-Tyson-says-despite-15246020.php

President Donald Trump's executive order last week requiring meat processing plants to stay open to ward off shortages may not be a cure-all for the food industry segment that has been hardest hit by novel coronavirus outbreaks.

On Monday morning, Tyson Foods said during an investor call that U.S. hog processing capacity had dropped by 50%.

The company has been severely affected. Three of Tyson's six main U.S. processing facilities remain closed and three others are operating at reduced capacity, the company said.

Steve Meyer, an economist for Kerns and Associates, an agricultural risk management firm, said Tyson's production numbers may be even more dire.

"By my calculations, last Friday, pork production was down 42.9% for all U.S. companies," he said by phone Monday. "Tyson, by my calculations, was down by 57,780 hogs processed per day from a capacity of 78,500 processed per day. That's 74% short."

... According to a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention report, 115 meat and poultry processing facilities in 19 states have reported coronavirus cases as of Friday. Among about 130,000 workers at these facilities, 4,913 cases and 20 deaths have been recorded.

...  if consumers' neighborhood grocery stores have exclusive purchasing contracts with any of the multinational corporations that have been hit particularly hard, there could be shortages. ... "You're going to see empty shelves," he said. "Not all the time, and it won't last forever."

Hayes said part of what will increase prices is that consumers will probably see a scarcity of pork, beef and chicken at the same time because of the plant closures. Consumers can't just substitute a cheaper animal protein, because all are likely to cost more.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 05, 2020, 12:08:00 PM
Neven:
'Great video. It reminds me of the book The World Without Us except that the book's timescale is centuries or millennia as opposed to weeks.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World_Without_Us
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 05, 2020, 07:19:52 PM
Quote
Andrew Yang (@AndrewYang) 5/3/20, 5:35 PM
Most restaurants barely break even in normal times based on sales of high-margin items like dessert and alcohol. If you take out half of a restaurant’s seating to allow for social distancing it won’t survive unless its rent is dramatically lower.
https://twitter.com/andrewyang/status/1257061226808586241

——
Wendy’s is primarily a hamburger chain.
Wendy's restaurant visits find as many as 10% have chicken-only menus due to beef supply disruptions: Stifel
Published: May 5, 2020
Quote
Stifel analysts visited a random sampling of Wendy's Co. restaurants and found that 5% to 10% presented a chicken-only menu. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wendys-restaurant-visits-find-as-many-as-10-have-chicken-only-menus-due-to-beef-supply-disruptions-stifel-2020-05-05
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2020, 01:07:27 AM
Consequence:  College education in the time of coronavirus may be diminished.

Unimpressed by online classes, college students seek refunds
Quote
Grainger Rickenbaker, a freshman who filed a class-action lawsuit against Drexel University in Philadelphia, said the online classes he’s been taking are poor substitutes for classroom learning. There’s little interaction with students or professors, he said, and some classes are being taught almost entirely through recorded videos, with no live lecture or discussion.

“You just feel a little bit diminished,” said Rickenbaker, 21, of Charleston, South Carolina. “It’s just not the same experience I would be getting if I was at the campus.”

Other students report similar experiences elsewhere. A complaint against the University of California, Berkeley, says some professors are simply uploading assignments, with no video instruction at all. A case against Vanderbilt University says class discussion has been stymied and the “quality and academic rigor of courses has significantly decreased.”

In a case against Purdue University, a senior engineering student said the closure has prevented him from finishing his senior project, building an airplane. “No online course can simulate the applicable, real-world experience” he hoped to gain from the project, the complaint says.

Class-action lawsuits demanding tuition refunds have been filed against at least 26 colleges, targeting prestigious private universities, including Brown, Columbia and Cornell, along with big public schools, including Michigan State, Purdue and the University of Colorado, Boulder. ...
https://apnews.com/f18a0a48925a19586e4d810f6e88eff3
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 06, 2020, 05:26:36 AM
US airlines are collectively burning more than US$10bn in cash a month and averaging fewer than two dozen passengers per domestic flight because of the coronavirus pandemic, industry trade group Airlines for America said in prepared testimony seen by Reuters ahead of a US Senate hearing on Wednesday.

Even after grounding more than 3,000 aircraft, or nearly 50% of the active US fleet, the group said its member carriers, which include the four largest US airlines, were averaging just 17 passengers per domestic flight and 29 passengers per international flight.

Net booked passengers have fallen by nearly 100% year-on-year, according to the testimony before the Senate Commerce Committee. The group warned that if air carriers were to refund all tickets, including those purchased as nonrefundable or those canceled by a passenger instead of the carrier, “this will result in negative cash balances that will lead to bankruptcy.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/may/06/coronavirus-update-cases-uk-live-news-us-task-force-trump-covid-19-usa-world-europe-deaths-brazil-brasil-israel
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 06, 2020, 12:02:53 PM
Billionaire Sam Zell Sees Economy Permanently Scarred by Pandemic
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/billionaire-sam-zell-sees-economy-120000487.html
Quote
Just as the depression left behind a generation that couldn’t shake the experience of mass unemployment, hunger and desperation, the burdens this crisis has forced on society may be similarly hard to forget. Zell, 78, said it won’t be easy for people to live as they did before the “extraordinary shock” of the pandemic.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2020, 08:20:30 PM
Layoffs Start Turning From Temporary to Permanent Across America
 May 6, 2020,
Quote
Plenty of layoffs that just a month ago were labeled “temporary” are now tagged “indefinite” or “permanent.” Alongside announcements of sweeping staff cuts by major employers such as Boeing Co. and U.S. Steel Corp. and the accelerating pace of downsizing in brick-and-mortar retailing, such notices are a sign that even as businesses continue to hope for a speedy recovery, they are starting to plan for a slow one.

In Beallsville, Ohio, American Energy Corp., a subsidiary of Murray Energy, a coal miner already in bankruptcy proceedings before the crisis hit, is laying off 110 workers at its Century Mine, according to an April 27 letter to state officials in which the company cited sudden contract cancellations by major customers. “This layoff will be indefinite and may be permanent,” David Cutlip, the mine’s general superintendent, wrote.

U.S. Steel, Cleveland-Cliffs, and ArcelorMittal combined have shut down at least 10 blast furnaces at integrated steel mills that rely heavily on the auto and petroleum industries as customers, according to Credit Suisse analysts.

Forecasts that at the beginning of this year called for more than 16 million cars to be sold in the U.S. now predict sales of 11 million to 12 million….

In Petoskey, the news of Michigan Maple’s closure came just ahead of a summer season that would normally start with the Memorial Day holiday at the end of this month. Town officials are trying to look ahead and figure out how to cope safely with the influx of visitors. One way is to ask out-of-town visitors to bring a 14-day supply of food with them so that they can quarantine when they arrive—which does not bode well for restaurants and other enterprises that rely on these customers for a significant portion of their annual revenue. …
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/layoffs-start-turning-from-temporary-to-permanent-across-america/ar-BB13G1Yu
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2020, 08:48:28 PM
EU warns coronavirus will trigger ‘recession of historic proportions’ in 2020
May 6, 2020
Quote
BRUSSELS (AP) — The European Union predicted Wednesday “a recession of historic proportions this year” due to the impact of the coronavirus as it released its first official estimates of the damage the pandemic is inflicting on the bloc’s economy.

The 27-nation EU economy is predicted to contract by 7.5% this year, before growing by about 6% in 2021. The group of 19 nations using the euro as their currency will see a record decline of 7.75% this year, and grow by 6.25% in 2021, the European Commission said in its Spring economic forecast.

“It is now quite clear that the EU has entered the deepest economic recession in its history,” EU Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told reporters in Brussels. As the virus hit, “economic activity in the EU dropped by around one third practically overnight,” he said.
...
The pandemic has hurt consumer spending, industrial output, investment, trade, capital flows and supply chains. It has also hit jobs. The unemployment rate across the 27-nation EU is forecast to rise from 6.7% in 2019 to 9% in 2020 but then fall to around 8% in 2021, the commission said. Beyond that, Gentiloni said, “we will have a massive drop in hours worked.” ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-warns-coronavirus-will-trigger-recession-of-historic-proportions-in-2020-2020-05-06
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2020, 09:11:36 PM
3 USDA meat inspectors dead, about 145 diagnosed with COVID-19
May 5, 2020
Quote
Hundreds of federal meat inspectors have been exposed to COVID-19, as coronavirus outbreaks spread to thousands of workers at processing plants across the country.

About 145 field employees were absent from work as of April 28 due to COVID-19 diagnoses, and another 130 were under self-quarantine due to exposure to the virus, a spokesperson for the United States Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS), the federal agency that inspects the U.S. food supply, told CBS News on Monday.
 
One FSIS inspector based out of the New York City area, one from the Chicago area and another from Mississippi have died due to the virus, the American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), a union representing food inspectors, said Tuesday.

Paula Schelling, acting president of AFGE Council 45, which represents 6,500 federal food inspectors nationwide, said she gives the USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service "an 'F' for protecting their own employees."

"Every day there are inspectors going into facilities where there are known positive COVID-19 cases," she said. "People are still going in there and doing inspection."

The United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) union said in a statement last week that at least 20 meatpacking and food processing workers have been killed by COVID-19, and 22 meatpacking plants in the United States have closed at some point in the last two months due to coronavirus outbreaks. At least 5,000 meatpacking workers, as well as 1,500 food processing workers, have tested positive for COVID-19, or are awaiting test results or are in quarantine, according to UFCW.

Among the concerns for inspectors is that plants do not have to notify them if someone in a plant tests positive for COVID-19, according to Schelling.

"Inspectors can hear it second-hand at best when they're not notified," Schelling said.

FSIS inspectors often work shoulder-to-shoulder with plant employees while monitoring production lines, in environments not conducive to social distancing.

It is "virtually impossible in these meatpacking plants to practice social distancing," said Tom Corbo, a senior government affairs representative from the nonprofit Food & Water Watch.

Despite the close contact with other workers, the USDA has not provided personal protective equipment (PPE) to inspectors. The department is still working to "identify PPE needs in the food supply chain," the USDA spokesperson said Monday.
...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-usda-meat-inspectors-3-dead-covid-19/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2020, 07:47:34 AM
Gas Leak at LG Polymers Plant in India Kills Nine, Hundreds Hospitalised
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN22J092

... Swarupa Rani, an Assistant Commissioner of Police in the port city of Visakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh state told Reuters that at least 9 people had died and between 300-400 were hospitalised. Another 1,500 people had been evacuated, mostly from a neighbouring village.

She said the incident happened at a plant operated by LG Polymers and that gas leaked out of two 5,000-tonne tanks that had been unattended due to India's coronavirus lockdown in place since late March.

"It was left there because of the lockdown.
It led to a chemical reaction and heat was produced inside the tanks, and the gas leaked because of that," Rani, an assistant commissioner, told AFP news agency.

... The commissioner of the Visakhapatnam city corporation said styrene leaked from the plant during the early hours of the morning, when families in the surrounding villages were asleep.

Srijana Gummalla, Commissioner, Greater Visakhapatnam Municipal Corporation, told Reuters that the plant had been reopened in the past few days after India relaxed a nationwide lockdown, that had been imposed on March 25 to contain the spread of the new coronavirus

Areas within an approximately 3-kilometer (nearly 2-mile)radius of the plant were vulnerable, the municipal corporation said in a tweet. Cross-referencing maps of the affected area, there is at least one coronavirus containment zone in the neighbourhood.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
UK Economy To Have 'Sharpest Decline On Record'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52566030

The Bank of England anticipates the UK economy is already in a sharp recession, having contracted by a significant 3% in the first three months of the year and then an unprecedented 25% in the current quarter ending in June, in its scenario published on Thursday.

For 2020 as a whole, the UK economy is expected to contract by 14%. This would be the biggest annual decline on record, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data dating back to 1949.

It would also be the sharpest annual contraction since 1706, according to reconstructed Bank of England data stretching back to the 18th Century.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 07, 2020, 11:47:46 AM
Nouriel Roubini says global economy faces deadly recession
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-06/Nouriel-Roubini-says-global-economy-faces-deadly-recession.html
Quote
"Unfortunately, I fear there are some major trends…what I call the 10 deadly Ds that are going lead us to a deadly depression sometime later in this decade. Only a matter of when," he said in the interview.

Some of Roubini's "deadly Ds" include debt, deficits, deglobalization, currency devaluation, and environmental disruption.

Yes, I know I post pessimistic articles on this crisis. But I am an economic pessimist. If you are bothered by it, just don't read it, but that doesn't mean you will escape it if I turn out to be right.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2020, 03:51:33 PM
US Weekly Jobless Claims Total 3.169 Million, Bringing Seven-Week Tally to 33.5 Million
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/07/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106525583-1588854850974-20200507_initial_ui_claims_week_ending_march_2.png?v=1588854893&w=720&h=439&imgcrop=n)

Jobless claims last week totaled 3.17 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Though the numbers remain elevated, it's the lowest total since shortly after the coronavirus was declared a pandemic.

The seven-week running total is now 33.5 million.

At the current pace, the week claims numbers should fall below 1 million by mid-June
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 07, 2020, 05:04:20 PM
Nouriel Roubini says global economy faces deadly recession
https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-05-06/Nouriel-Roubini-says-global-economy-faces-deadly-recession.html
Quote
"Unfortunately, I fear there are some major trends…what I call the 10 deadly Ds that are going lead us to a deadly depression sometime later in this decade. Only a matter of when," he said in the interview.

Some of Roubini's "deadly Ds" include debt, deficits, deglobalization, currency devaluation, and environmental disruption.

Yes, I know I post pessimistic articles on this crisis. But I am an economic pessimist. If you are bothered by it, just don't read it, but that doesn't mean you will escape it if I turn out to be right.

The problem isn't that this sort of article is talking doom and gloom--there's an abundance of potential doom and plenty to be gloomy about.  The problem with these articles is that they take a very biased, self-interested, and superficial approach to the items discussed.

As an example of a better service to the community, note that this article was cribbed from an interview with Roubini (a respected economist worth listening to) on Bloomberg.  It would be much more valuable to dispense with the gold-bug filter and just seek out the actual interview.
See:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/nouriel-roubini-sees-a-bad-recovery-then-inflation-then-a-depression (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-04/nouriel-roubini-sees-a-bad-recovery-then-inflation-then-a-depression)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 01:26:12 AM
Coronavirus: A Dry Spell In Germany's Beer Region
https://dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-we-communicate-with-germany-trump-says/a-53355994
https://dw.com/en/coronavirus-a-dry-spell-in-germanys-beer-region/a-53332606

A brewery in the German state of Hesse has been giving out free beer rather than let it go to waste due to COVID-19 restrictions.

The owners of the Willinger Brauhaus gave away an estimated 2,600 liters (690 gallons) of light and dark beer on Thursday. The beer was intended for hotels and restaurants, but coronavirus closures made the brewery's normal deliveries impossible.

Brewery owner Franz Mast told Reuters news agency that he needed to empty his brewery's tanks to fill them up with fresh beer to prepare for when bars and restaurants are allowed to reopen.

The free beer give-away was a massive success with customers. Dozens of people lined up outside the brewery — making sure to wear masks and socially distance as they waited to pick up their on-the-house beverages.

"I hope it helps the brewery, that is why we are here. This way, we can sit in the garden later today, in the sun, and have a nice Willinger beer," customer Natalie Julius told Reuters.

--------------------------------

For some reason I suddenly have a craving for some bratwurst & rauchbeir.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 06:31:45 AM
(https://m.arcamax.com/newspics/182/18242/1824238.gif)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 10:09:28 AM
Grocery Store Sales Save 'Beyond Meat' From the Coronavirus
https://www.fool.com/amp/investing/2020/05/07/can-grocery-sales-save-beyond-meat-coronavirus.aspx

One oft-repeated question: With the coronavirus pandemic shutting down so many restaurants, schools, and other foodservice providers, how would Beyond Meat fare, given that 51% of its sales come from selling plant-based meats to such establishments?

Answer: Actually, quite well.

Reporting Q1 2020 earnings on Tuesday, Beyond Meat boasted of a 141% year-over-year increase in revenue to $97.1 million. It also reported $0.03 per diluted share in honest-to-goodness net income -- the company's second profitable quarter ever.

The key to the company's success, of course, was sales growth, and growing sales to retail customers through grocery stores in particular. Although foodservice sales grew 156% in the U.S., retail sales grew even faster.

In its report, Beyond Meat highlighted a marked slowdown in foodservice sales "in the latter half of March ... as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 health crisis." The slowdown was so great that, for this one single quarter at least, the balance of sales of the company's fake meat products flipped from 51% foodservice, 49% retail, to 58% favoring retail versus 42% for foodservice.

The difference in growth rates was especially pronounced internationally, where sales of Beyond Meat's plant-based products exploded 4,944% higher in Q1, while sales through foodservice channels grew only 57%.

---------------------------------

Coronavirus: Meat Shortage Leaves US Farmers with 'Mind-Blowing' Choice
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52575904

--------------------------------

Brazil Economy Minister Paulo Guedes warned that the pandemic might cause food shortages and broader production problems if lockdown measures continued.

"Within about 30 days, there may start to be shortages on [store] shelves and production may become disorganized, leading to a system of economic collapse, of social disorder," he said.  

Guedes had joined a protest organized by business leaders against the Supreme Court decision to overturn President Jair Bolsonaro's efforts to halt measures taken by some states to implement social distancing. Bolsonaro himself participated in separate protests in the capital, Brasilia.

The biggest economy in Latin America, Brazil is also the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the region. Brazil's Health Ministry said the country has 135,106 confirmed cases, with 9,146 deaths. Experts believe that the rate of testing is low, and the true numbers could be much higher.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 12:10:15 PM
Cruise to Nowhere: Satellite Images Show Armadas Of Vacant Cruise Ships Huddling Together Out At Sea
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/33338/satellite-images-show-armadas-of-vacant-cruise-ships-huddling-together-out-at-sea

(https://the-drive.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1588880609962-2523523552.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.4.1&s=68203d18d5678c27d9434c53711227c4)

Of all the industries that have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the cruise industry has probably been hit the hardest. Not only are their operations shut down, but they became the face of a global nightmare early on, with hulking pleasure ships being turned into floating prisons rife with infection. Now, according to satellite imagery and transponder tracking data, with no revenue and nowhere to go, cruise ships are seeking refuge in clusters out in the Caribbean and Atlantic, attempting to ride out a storm that they were never designed to handle.

Storing cruise ships in port is not a cheap proposition, nor is there enough space to accommodate them in traditional berths. Beyond that, the international crews that man these huge vessels are not allowed to step on land due to infection risk. With the vast majority of these ships flagged in relatively small and poor countries that have little capability to impact the situation, the only place for them to go is out to sea. And that's precisely where many of them have been.

One armada, in particular, off Coco Cay and Great Stirrup Cay — the former is owned by the Royal Caribbean cruise line and the latter is owned by the Norwegian cruise line — in the Bahamas is remarkably large.

(https://the-drive-2.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1588881634754-214125125.jpeg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.4.1&s=89c93359f5aa9bfbf53481dd48b05f59)
All the blue dots are cruise ships

When we looked over a broader area, we noticed that there are multiple other little huddles of cruise ships that can be found throughout the Caribbean. More are anchored just off major embarkation points along the Florida coastline and elsewhere, as well. Overseas there are similar huddles of ships that spot the map.

... Although there are no passengers aboard these ships, some of which cost well over a billion dollars to build, there are plenty of people still on board. Much of their crews are literally trapped on these vessels.

As of May 5, there were over 57,000 crew members still aboard 74 cruise ships in and around US ports and the Bahamas and the Caribbean, according to the US Coast Guard. Many more hundreds were stuck on vessels elsewhere across the world's oceans. ... crew members have since been told that they're no longer considered working employees and they were paid out through the end of April.

(https://the-drive-3.imgix.net/https%3A%2F%2Fs3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com%2Fthe-drive-cms-content-staging%2Fmessage-editor%252F1588880178878-5-5.jpg?auto=compress%2Cformat&ixlib=js-1.4.1&s=418244dca1ab7739663fea3d60ceee5b)

... Few industries exist where such huge capital outlays can turn into equally large liabilities under these highly unique circumstances. Whereas air travel and hotels, both industries that are in great jeopardy, still serve a necessary service during a pandemic and during the economic recovery that hopefully follows, these decadent and hulking ships serve no purpose other than entertainment.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2020, 02:09:24 PM
Lord & Taylor is one of the world’s oldest department store operators, founded by two English immigrants on the Lower East Side in New York City in 1826. During the Civil War in the 1860s, it opened a special section offering mourning apparel for widows.

Lord & Taylor will liquidate merchandise when stores reopen
Quote
Venerable US retailer Lord & Taylor plans to liquidate inventory in its 38 department stores once restrictions to curb the spread of coronavirus are lifted as it braces for a bankruptcy process from which it does not expect to emerge, people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

Lord & Taylor’s preparations to liquidate its inventory as soon as its stores reopen offer a window into the grim future of a high-profile retailer — a storied department store chain founded in 1826 and billed as the oldest in the United States — that does not expect to survive the pandemic’s economic fallout. ...
https://nypost.com/2020/05/05/struggling-department-store-chain-lord-taylor-will-liquidate-its-stores-when-they-reopen/


—-
Washington state, US
Seattle will permanently close 20 miles of residential streets to most vehicle traffic
May 7, 2020
Quote
Nearly 20 miles of Seattle streets will permanently close to most vehicle traffic by the end of May, Mayor Jenny Durkan announced Thursday.

The streets had been closed temporarily to through traffic to provide more space for people to walk and bike at a safe distance apart during the coronavirus pandemic.

Now the closures will continue even after Gov. Jay Inslee’s stay-at-home order is lifted.

Over the next couple of weeks, the Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT) will replace the temporary closure signs on the so-called Stay Healthy Streets with permanent markings, guiding drivers to other routes.
...
SDOT also is adjusting the timing of traffic signals and pedestrian walk signals to give people more time to cross the street and avoid bunching.

Instead of pushing the arrow to request a walk signal, about 75% of the nearly 600 walking signals in denser parts of Seattle, including downtown, will be automated so people don’t need to touch a surface. ...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/seattle-will-permanently-close-20-miles-of-residential-streets-to-most-vehicle-traffic/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on May 08, 2020, 02:54:31 PM
Lord & Taylor was in dire straits before the virus hit.  They started closing stores and laying off employees right after Christmas.  This comes as no surprise.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2020, 03:53:49 PM
The Wall Street Journal
Unemployment rate soars to record 14.7% as U.S. sheds an unprecedented 20.5 million jobs
Quote
WASHINGTON—The April unemployment rate rose to a record 14.7% and payrolls dropped by an unprecedented 20.5 million as the coronavirus pandemic hit the economy.

April’s jobless rate eclipsed the previous record rate of 10.8% for data tracing back to 1948.

The job losses due to business closures triggered by the coronavirus produced by far the steepest monthly decline on records back to 1939. By comparison, nearly 2 million jobs were lost in one month in 1945, at the end of World War II.

“The sharp increases in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus pandemic and efforts to contain it,” the Labor Department said.

The job losses and high unemployment mark a sharp pivot from just a few months ago, when the economy was pumping out hundreds of thousands of new jobs, and joblessness was hovering near 50-year lows. The jobs bust has been widespread.

Employment fell sharply in all broad business sectors last month, with particularly heavy job losses in leisure and hospitality, which cut 7.65 million jobs. The health-care, retail and professional services industries each lost more than 2 million jobs.
https://apple.news/ALtXP8gK6QbucesbI8HLCWQ
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2020, 04:17:58 PM
The same number of people could die from ‘deaths of despair’ as have already died in the U.S. from coronavirus, new study finds 
Quote
In addition to more than 75,000 deaths in the U.S. from COVID-19, the growing epidemic of “deaths of despair” in the U.S. is also increasing due to the pandemic — and another 75,000 more people will likely die from drug or alcohol misuse and suicide, according to new research released by Well Being Trust and the Robert Graham Center for Policy Studies in Family Medicine and Primary Care.

As of Friday, 8.1 million people had been tested in the U.S. for SARS-CoV-2. There were 1,256,972 confirmed cases in the U.S., and 75,670 deaths, of which nearly 26,144 were in New York state, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. Worldwide, there were 3,866,642 confirmed cases and 270,118 deaths, according to data aggregated by Johns Hopkins University.

Additional “deaths of despair” range from 27,644, assuming a quick recovery and the smallest impact from unemployment, to 154,037, assuming a slow recover and the greatest impact from unemployment. “We can prevent these deaths by taking meaningful and comprehensive action as a nation,” the researchers wrote in the “deaths of despair” report published Friday.

“More Americans could lose their lives to deaths of despair, deaths due to drug, alcohol, and suicide, if we do not do something immediately,” the report said. “Deaths of despair have been on the rise for the last decade, and in the context of COVID-19, deaths of despair should be seen as the epidemic within the pandemic.”
… 
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-same-number-of-people-could-die-from-deaths-of-despair-as-have-already-died-in-the-us-from-coronavirus-new-study-finds-2020-05-08
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2020, 04:29:55 PM
“This is the first time in its history that Norway’s sovereign wealth fund is having to liquidate its assets, as the coronavirus pandemic and low oil prices impact markets.”
 
Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund Will Have To Liquidate Assets: Report
Quote
Norway’s sovereign wealth fund will have to liquidate assets in order to make “room to maneuver” through an economic crisis, according to Bloomberg.

Norges Bank governor Oystein Olsen, who oversees the country’s $1-trillion bank, told Bloomberg Television that this will provide “room to maneuver” through the worst economic crisis since World War II.

“It’s part of the general guidelines that in such circumstances you can spend more,” Olsen said in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
https://www.benzinga.com/node/15989111

—-
Canada loses record 2 million jobs; temporary layoffs hide extent of damage
Quote
OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada lost a record-breaking 2.0 million jobs in April while the unemployment rate surged to a near-record high 13.0%, according to official data released on Friday that did not reflect the full extent of layoffs caused by coronavirus shutdowns.

Although the numbers were not as bad as markets had feared, Statistics Canada said they did not capture the 1.1 million people who had temporarily lost their jobs and who expected to return to work once restrictions were relaxed.

Had these people been counted as jobless, the April unemployment rate would have been a record 17.8%.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had forecast a loss of 4 million jobs and an unemployment rate of 18%, up from the 7.8% seen in March, when 1 million jobs were lost.

“The unemployment rate at 13% is not something to be excited about, but it’s a lot better than feared. I would say that the jobs figures probably understate the weakness in the economy,” said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-canada-economy-employment/canada-loses-record-2-million-jobs-temporary-layoffs-hide-extent-of-damage-idUSKBN22K1P1
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 08:41:20 PM
More Borrowers Miss Mortgage Payments Under CARES Act Bailout
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/08/mortgage-bailout-swells-to-4point1-million-borrowers.html

Nearly 4.1 million homeowners are skipping monthly mortgage payments, much higher than federal regulators expected. In just the past week, 225,000 more borrowers took advantage of the government mortgage bailout, according to data firm Black Knight.

Homeowners can put off payments for 90 days under the CARES Act and then apply for extensions of a year. The total number of forbearances represents $890 billion in unpaid principal
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 08:53:59 PM
Ohio Urges Employers to Report Workers Fearful of Returning to Work
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/08/ohio-coronavirus-reopening-workers-unemployment-benefits

Fear of catching Covid-19 will now cost you more than sleep in Ohio. The Ohio state government has asked employers to report anyone who refuses to return to work because they are concerned about the coronavirus pandemic. Reported workers may be ineligible for unemployment benefits.

... Ohio’s Department of Job and Family Services has now asked employers “to report employees who quit or refuse work when it is available due to Covid-19”. The information collected on the “Covid-19 Employee Fraud” form can then be used to evaluate potential unemployment benefits claims from people who are refusing “suitable work”, and are thus ineligible for benefits.

... “We recognize that there could be a difference of opinion in regards to whether or not an employer is meeting health and safety standards,” Kimberly Hall, the department’s head, told reporters. “It’s basically a reasonable person’s standards.”

... The state has said it does not have the capacity to test people who are experiencing mild symptoms. As it works toward its goal of administering 22,000 tests a day by the end of the month, it is prioritizing essential healthcare workers and patients who are hospitalized or going through a medical procedure.

------------------------------

(https://www.usnews.com/dims4/USNEWS/ec62cd1/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/quality/85/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.beam.usnews.com%2Fe9%2F98%2Ffd117fb84800ae473776c94836b2%2F20200506edptc-a.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 08, 2020, 09:56:57 PM
US Blocks UN Security Council Vote On Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/deaths-hit-75000-covid-19-wave-feared-live-updates-200507231219399.html

The United States prevented a vote in the UN Security Council on a resolution calling to end worldwide hostilities amid the coronavirus pandemic.

The resolution called for cessation of hostilities in conflict zones so governments could focus on tackling COVID-19.

---------------------------

Biggest Threat to Brazil Pandemic Response? President Bolsonaro, Says The Lancet
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/deaths-hit-75000-covid-19-wave-feared-live-updates-200507231219399.html

The biggest threat to Brazil's ability to successfully combat the spread of the coronavirus and tackle the unfolding public health crisis is the country's president, Jair Bolsonaro, according to British medical journal The Lancet.

In an editorial, the Lancet said Bolsonaro's disregard for and flouting of lockdown measures is sowing confusion across Brazil, which is now recording record numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths, and is fast emerging as one of the world's coronavirus hot spots.

-------------------------------

Italy's Milan a Ticking Virus 'Bomb', Virologist Warns
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/deaths-hit-75000-covid-19-wave-feared-live-updates-200507231219399.html

Italy's economic capital Milan is a virus time "bomb" at risk of erupting with residents now free to move around after two months under a pandemic lockdown, a virologist has warned.

The city in the northern Lombardy region is the epicentre of Italy's outbreak, one of the worst in Europe in terms of deaths and infections.

"We have a very high number of infected people returning to circulation," Massimo Galli, the head of the infectious diseases department at the Sacco hospital in Milan, said in an interview with the Repubblica newspaper, referring to the easing of lockdown measures on May 4.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 09, 2020, 08:59:14 PM
Union opposes reopening U.S. meat plants as more workers die
Quote
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The largest union representing U.S. meatpacking workers said on Friday it opposed the reopening of plants as the Trump administration had failed to guarantee workers’ safety.

At least 30 meatpacking workers have died of the novel coronavirus and more than 10,000 have contracted it, the United Food and Commercial Workers International Union (UFCW), which represents more than 250,000 meatpacking and food processing workers, said in a statement.

The pandemic caused at least 30 meatpacking plants to temporarily close over the past two months, resulting in a 40% drop in pork production capacity and a 25% drop in beef production capacity, the union said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-meat-idUSKBN22K2WP
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 10, 2020, 10:13:20 AM
No 'V'-shape return from devastating U.S. job loss, Fed policymakers say
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-fed-daly/no-v-shape-return-from-devastating-u-s-job-loss-fed-policymakers-say-idUSKBN22K30P
Quote
“A couple months ago I was optimistic, I was hopeful, that maybe we would have a ‘V’-shaped recovery - shut things down, clamp down on the virus, and then have a quick recovery,” Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said in an interview on the PBS Newshour.

The virus has continued to spread across the nation, with nearly 1.3 million people infected so far and more than 77,000 dead.

With a vaccine and effective treatment unlikely for a year or two, “we are in for unfortunately a slow, long recovery” from “devastating” job losses, Kashkari said.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 10, 2020, 10:20:10 AM
What To Make Of The Historically Bad Jobs Report: 'Great Depression Levels Of Stress'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/historically-bad-jobs-report-great-172220380.html
Quote
“What we know is that this report almost certainly understates the tragedy has befallen the American labor force,” RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas said in a statement, noting that the unemployment rate would have been nearly 5 percentage points higher if the full number of absent workers had been included in the count.

“The first cut at estimating the damage to the U.S. labor market understates the true shock that the public is absorbing.”
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on May 10, 2020, 11:07:07 AM
Politicized discussion between health care or economy, also framed as lockdowns or open business is largely irrelevant. This isn’t a choice we can make.

Swedish economy is suffering similarly as her neighbours despite more relaxed counter measures.

” data released from the country's central bank and a leading Swedish think tank show that the economy will be just as badly hit as its European neighbors, if not worse.



In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021.



The International Monetary Fund predicted earlier in April that Germany and the U.K. will see their economies contract by 6.5% and 7% this year, respectively. France is expected to see a 7.2% contraction, Spain an 8% contraction and for Italy to see its economy shrink 9.1%.

Sweden's neighbors Finland and Denmark, which also imposed lockdowns, are also expected to see their economies contract by 6% and 6.5%, respectively.”



https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2020, 07:17:07 PM
U.S. life insurers are doing the once unthinkable, turning away business from some Americans who want a policy. 
Quote
The driving force behind the action: a collapse in interest rates tied to the spread of the new coronavirus and an expectation from insurers that rates won’t rebound significantly anytime soon.

Life insurers earn much of their profit by investing customers’ premiums in bonds until claims come due. In simplest terms, when they price policies, they make assumptions about how much interest income they will earn investing these premiums years into the future. The less they earn, the more they may need to collect in premium or fees to turn a profit.
...
“In 33 years, I have never seen more changes come more quickly to the life-insurance products we sell,” said Lawrence Rybka, chairman of ValMark Financial Group, an insurance brokerage in Akron, Ohio. “It is unprecedented how fast and widespread—it is across lots of carriers.”

The insurer also temporarily suspended sales of 30-year “term-life” policies, an offering popular with young families, a spokeswoman confirmed. Such policies provide a basic death benefit during the years in which they rear their children. Prudential also reduced the amount of interest it is crediting to certain combination savings-and-death-benefit “universal life” policies.

Typically, life insurers hold about 70% of their general investment account in long-term bonds. In general, the yields on these holdings, many of them corporate securities, follow the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Its annual yield has been mostly declining since the 1980s, when it peaked at nearly 16%.

The yield dove after the 2008-09 financial crisis and was as low as 1.366% in 2016 before rebounding to about 3% in 2018. In March, it plummeted again as coronavirus sparked a rush to safer assets and investors feared interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The yield on Friday: 0.679%.
...

Some insurers are reacting directly to the new coronavirus.
Penn Mutual Life Insurance Co., among others, has temporarily halted life-insurance sales to people 70 and older and who are in poor health. Insurance-industry executives say that analysis shows older people with underlying medical problems are dying at much higher rates from Covid-19 than younger people.

In a memo to brokers, Penn Mutual said it expects “to revisit these and other changes as we gain better insight into the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.” ...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-americans-are-being-turned-away-trying-to-buy-life-insurance-11589103002
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Niall Dollard on May 10, 2020, 11:26:16 PM
NASA, Partners Launch Virtual Hackathon to Develop COVID-19 Solutions

On May 30-31, NASA, along with the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), are inviting coders, entrepreneurs, scientists, designers, storytellers, makers, builders, artists, and technologists to participate in a virtual hackathon. During a period of 48 hours, participants from around the world will create virtual teams and use Earth observation data to develop solutions to issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Challenges will range from studying the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 and its spread to the impact the disease is having on the Earth system. The challenges will focus on the following thematic areas:

Learning about the virus and its spread using space-based data
Local response/change and solutions
Impacts of COVID-19 on the Earth system/Earth system response
Economic opportunity, impact, and recovery during and following COVID-19

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-partners-launch-virtual-hackathon-to-develop-covid-19-solutions

Not sure whether this merits being put out on a separate thread .... if there is some interest on this from ASIF members ?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 11, 2020, 11:02:02 AM
Coronavirus clips wings of the world's second-oldest airline
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/coronavirus-clips-wings-world-oldest-airline-200511025552746.html

Avianca Holdings, Latin America's second-largest airline, has filed for bankruptcy, after failing to meet a bond payment deadline, while its pleas for coronavirus aid from Colombia's government have so far been unsuccessful.

If it fails to come out of bankruptcy, Bogota-based Avianca would be one of the first large carriers worldwide to go under as a result of the pandemic, which has crippled world travel.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on May 11, 2020, 05:07:13 PM
NASA, Partners Launch Virtual Hackathon to Develop COVID-19 Solutions

...

Not sure whether this merits being put out on a separate thread .... if there is some interest on this from ASIF members ?

I prefer to have the least amount of Covid threads possible since basically they are off topic.

If any members are interested in this AND it is playing with data a best fit might be somewhere in the test forum so a thread could be made there but only by a member writing about the data on hand.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2020, 05:20:11 PM
"[T]he danger is, if you put up tax rates, you clobber incentives and you reduce the efficiency of the economy, and that's the very, very last thing that you should be doing."

Coronavirus crisis could see wealth taxes implemented around the world, economist claims
Quote
Wealth tax
The idea of introducing or increasing tax rates for society's wealthiest has been floated by economists as the long-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic becomes more apparent.

According to the International Monetary Fund, the world is set for the deepest recession since the 1930s, with the global economy expected to contract by 3% in 2020.

In a paper published last month, the IMF suggested governments should consider increasing taxes on income, property and wealth through a so-called "solidarity surcharge" as a way of funding programs to protect their economies.

Meanwhile, in an April article for the New York Times, Daniel Markovits, a law professor at Yale and author of "The Meritocracy Trap," said a 5% tax on the wealthiest 5% of American households could raise up to $2 trillion.

"Our extraordinary battle against the pandemic should draw on the immense reserves that the most privileged among us have accumulated over decades of abundance," he said.

"Government borrowing is tempting because debt is now so cheap. But borrowing will in the end burden the young, who are now suffering their second economic calamity in a decade. Instead, the relief effort should be funded through a one-time wealth tax imposed on the richest Americans, whose wealth has exploded alongside rising inequality." ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/11/coronavirus-wealth-taxes-may-be-rolled-out-globally-economist-says.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2020, 06:23:59 PM
White-Collar Companies Race to Be Last to Return to the Office
Quote
Google and Facebook employees were told Thursday that they could stay home until next year. Capital One informed 40,000 workers that they will be out through Labor Day and possibly longer. Amazon is saying October. Nationwide Insurance is moving more aggressively than other firms, shuttering five offices around the country and having its 4,000 employees telecommute permanently.

But even after the coronavirus no longer requires it, working from home is likely to retain a significant presence in corporate life. It will affect the shape of cities and the commercial real-estate industry, and change the culture at companies that for years have been building elaborate temples for their workers.

Some companies said there is another reason: Working from home is working out well.
“Working from home is a great thing for the company and for the employees, who don’t want to get back in cars and commute for two hours. That’s lost productivity,” said Joan Burke, the chief people officer of DocuSign, a San Francisco tech company that enables electronic agreements. “I see it happening way more often in the future.”

Now, even as states like Georgia and Illinois roll out phased re-openings, companies see a future for remote work. Gartner, the research firm and consultant, said its clients — mostly large firms that have little direct interaction with the public — expected as many as half their employees to work at home at least part time.

A broad shift could have major implications for traffic congestion, office culture and corporate profits. Smaller firms could draw on a much larger pool of potential workers who live beyond the radius of headquarters. And for some, it would erase the boundary between work and home.

There are risks to companies, too. Employee loyalty could become more tenuous, making retention more difficult. Managing could also become harder. But the bottom line exerts a powerful pull.

“There are real cost benefits to doing this, and companies are in a period where cost matters a lot,” said Brian Kropp, a Gartner vice president. “Even if employees who are working remotely are 5 percent less productive, companies can save 20 percent on real estate and end up with a higher return.”

“It’s easier to manage a company that is 100 percent remote than one where employees are 50 percent remote and 50 percent in the office,” said Robby Kwok, Slack’s senior vice president for people.

That’s because completely virtual companies need to write everything down for employees. Companies that combine the two approaches risk that some employees are more informed than others.  And in a world where crowds are now dangerous, Slack can help workers stay safe by keeping them at home. The earliest employees will return to the office is September, Mr. Kwok said.

“We have this community obligation to be the last to go back,” he said.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/05/08/white-collar-companies-race-to-be-last-to-return-to-the-office/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2020, 08:48:16 PM
Why the New York Times is calling this downturn a ‘shecession’:
This is the first time since 1948 that the female unemployment rate has reached double digits.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-new-york-times-is-calling-this-downturn-a-shecession-2020-05-11
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 13, 2020, 11:34:17 AM
Worst US Jobs Report in History was Worse than Investors Think, but the Dow Loved it!
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/worst-us-jobs-report-in-history-the-dow-loved-it/
Quote
In March, April and May the damage was to the jobs report. By June it will likely start to appear as a significant rise in credit delinquencies (missed payments) that become defaults as they hit the ninety-day mark. Then the foreclosures may start to begin in July. By August or September, we move to bank closures — maybe in Europe or South America first, but causing contagion that eventually reaches badly weakened banks in the US, too, before year’s end.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 13, 2020, 02:39:47 PM
California Cancels Fall University Classes
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/trump-support-ebbs-coronavirus-deaths-mount-live-updates-200512233628355.html

California's state university system, the largest in the United States, canceled classes for the fall semester because of the coronavirus, while Los Angeles County said its stay-at-home order was likely to be extended by three months.

In one of the first indications the pandemic will continue to have a significant impact into autumn, the chancellor of California State University said classes at its 23 campuses would be canceled for the semester that begins in September, with instruction moved online.

"Our university ... is a place where over 500,000 people come together in close and vibrant proximity with each other on a daily basis," the chancellor, Timothy White, said in a statement.

"That approach, sadly, just isn't in the cards now.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 13, 2020, 05:34:31 PM
U.S. gymnastics championships canceled for first time since 1940s, due to coronavirus
https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/more-sports/us-gymnastics-championships-canceled-for-first-time-since-1940s-due-to-coronavirus/ar-BB13ZkPO

—-
Why we can’t have nice things
Beachgoers Left 13,000 Pounds of Trash on Florida's Cocoa Beach After It Reopened
https://www.greenmatters.com/p/cocoa-beach-trash?gm

—-
U.S. stock market.  Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices
Technical Indicators Trigger Major Sell Signal
Quote
It rarely ever happens, but when it does, it's serious. It has only happened nine times in 10 years. We are referring to crossovers between the 200-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs).
Very few technical indicators receive as much attention and media coverage as the 50 and 200-day SMAs. The 200-day MA is perceived to be the dividing line between a stock that is technically healthy and one that is not.
It's a Big Deal
It's a big deal when a stock or an index drops below the 200-day SMA. It's an even bigger deal when the 50-day SMA of any given stock or index drops below the 200-day SMA. Such a crossover reflects internal weakness - at least in theory. ...
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/technical-indicators-trigger-major-sell-signal-2010-07-09
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 14, 2020, 11:18:17 AM
Pandemic Will Cost Global Insurance Sector $203 Billion: Lloyd's
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/hits-china-linked-coronavirus-research-hacking-live-updates-200513231056741.html

The deadly coronavirus outbreak will cost the global insurance industry about $203bn, the Lloyd's of London insurance market has forecasted. 

"The estimated 2020 underwriting losses covered by the industry as a result of COVID-19 are approximately $107bn, on par with some of the biggest major claims years for the industry, such as when catastrophic windstorms have struck" in 2005 and 2017, it said in a statement.

The industry will also experience an estimated $96bn fall in investment portfolios, bringing the total projected loss to $203bn, it added.

--------------------------

Philippines Braces Strong Typhoon Amid Coronavirus Emergency
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/hits-china-linked-coronavirus-research-hacking-live-updates-200513231056741.htm

A strong typhoon is roaring towards the Philippines as authorities work to evacuate tens of thousands of people, while avoiding overcrowding in emergency shelters that could spread the coronavirus.

Typhoon Vongfong - the first to hit the country this year is expected to slam ashore on eastern islands later on Thursday with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph (93 mph) and gusts of up to 185 kph (115 mph).

Governors say social distancing will be nearly impossible for residents staying in emergency shelters. Some shelters are now serving as quarantine facilities, and they may have to be turned back into emergency storm shelters.

--------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 14, 2020, 11:44:36 AM
From zerohedge, and pushes gold, but makes some good points:

"Don't Believe The Happy Talk" - Jim Rickards Warns "This Time 'Is' Different"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dont-believe-happy-talk-jim-rickards-warns-time-different
Quote
According to one survey, 89% of Americans worry the pandemic could cause a collapse of the U.S. economy. This view is shared by Republicans and Democrats alike.

Ph.D. economists dislike anecdotal information because it’s hard to quantify and does not fit into their neat and tidy (but wrong) equations. But anecdotal information can be extremely important.

With so many Americans fearing a collapse, it could create a self-fulfilling prophesy.
Quote
As I explained earlier, comparisons to the 2008 crisis or even the 1929 stock market crash that started the Great Depression fail to capture the magnitude of the economic damage of the virus. You may have to go back to the Black Plague of the mid-14th century for the right comparison.

Unfortunately the economy will not return to normal for years. Some businesses will never return to normal because they’ll be bankrupt before they are even allowed to reopen.

Businesses like restaurants, bars, pizza parlors, dry cleaners, hair salons and many similar businesses make up 44% of total U.S. GDP and 47% of all jobs. This is where many of the job losses, shutdowns and lost revenues occurred.
Quote
Combining the baseline deficit, enacted legislation and anticipated legislation brings the fiscal 2020 deficit to $5.7 trillion. That’s equal to more than 25% of GDP and will push the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio to as high as 130% once the lost output ($6 trillion annualized) is taken into account. The previous record debt for the U.S. was about 120% of GDP at the end of World War II.

This puts the U.S. in the same category as Greece, Lebanon and Japan when it comes to the most heavily indebted countries in the world.
Quote
Once the government aid is distributed, many recipients will not spend it (as hoped) but will save it. Such savings are called “precautionary.” Even if you are not laid off, you may worry that your job is still in jeopardy. Any income you receive will either go to pay bills or into savings “just in case.”

In either case, the money will not be used for new spending. At a time when the economy needs consumption, we will not get it. The economy will fall into a “liquidity trap” where saving leads to deflation, which increases the value of cash, which leads to more saving. This pattern was last seen in the Great Depression (1929–40) and will soon be prevalent again.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 14, 2020, 02:12:57 PM
From zerohedge, and pushes gold, but makes some good points:

Zerohedge is an awful source, peddling conspiracy theories, doom and gloom predictions.  It's filled with click-bait garbage.

Whoever wrote this failed Econ 101.  A nation's national debt is a complex issue, but when that debt is in the nation's own currency, options for managing it are easier to manage than most realize.

Japan is considered a very strong (though slow-growth) economy.  It has a debt-to-gdp ratio of about 200%.  It's not an unmanageable problem, it's definitely not a crisis.

Yes, a deep recession is already present.  The recovery may well be slow.  It's true that deflation is a profoundly destructive process.  But the Federal Reserve has literally infinite ability to reverse deflation.  The Great Depression dragged on because economists then didn't understand the importance of the money supply.  Since the Great Recession, the Federal Reserve has learned to be aggressive in fighting deflation.  Quantitative easing was initially controversial, but 4 trillion of that easing during that recession did not create the feared  hyper-inflation, it barely avoided deflation.  QE now could increase that 4 trillion to several multiples of that amount.  This Federal Reserve balance sheet represents a *negative* debt, and in macro-economic terms, should be taken as effectively reducing the nominal national debt.

The zerohedge article is click-bait nonsense.  It's a terrible source for a discussion forum.

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 14, 2020, 02:43:30 PM
Thanks for giving arguments against the points instead of just calling Zerohedge names, Steve.
The article projects we won’t get Unemployment beck down to 5% until 2026. Do you think that is overly pessimistic too?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 14, 2020, 03:16:06 PM
Thanks for giving arguments against the points instead of just calling Zerohedge names, Steve.
The article projects we won’t get Unemployment beck down to 5% until 2026. Do you think that is overly pessimistic too?

I don't know, but I think it may be plausible.  The economy has instantly shed a large proportion of non-essential jobs (which is bad) and also a lot of non-essential economic activity and carbon emissions (which is good).

What I think needs to happen (and has suddenly become politically feasible) is institution of a universal basic income.  Rather than have vast numbers of people being forced to take bullshit jobs to earn a paycheck, provide everyone with a basic income and stop creating bullshit work.  In the short-term, paying for this with deficits/quantitative easing is not a problem.  Longer-term, money will need to come out of concentrated wealth and those with exorbitant incomes.  That will be a challenging political battle.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on May 14, 2020, 05:15:22 PM
Thanks for giving arguments against the points instead of just calling Zerohedge names, Steve.
The article projects we won’t get Unemployment beck down to 5% until 2026. Do you think that is overly pessimistic too?

I don't know, but I think it may be plausible.  The economy has instantly shed a large proportion of non-essential jobs (which is bad) and also a lot of non-essential economic activity and carbon emissions (which is good).

What I think needs to happen (and has suddenly become politically feasible) is institution of a universal basic income.  Rather than have vast numbers of people being forced to take bullshit jobs to earn a paycheck, provide everyone with a basic income and stop creating bullshit work.  In the short-term, paying for this with deficits/quantitative easing is not a problem.  Longer-term, money will need to come out of concentrated wealth and those with exorbitant incomes.  That will be a challenging political battle.

Isn't UBI just giving people a minimum paycheck for doing bullshit work?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sebastian Jones on May 14, 2020, 10:24:33 PM
.....

Isn't UBI just giving people a minimum paycheck for doing bullshit work?

Nope.
UDI is by definition not tied to employment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 14, 2020, 10:49:47 PM
"This Federal Reserve balance sheet represents a *negative* debt, and in macro-economic terms, should be taken as effectively reducing the nominal national debt."

Do tell. What is the accounting relationship between the Fed balance sheet and the government deficit ?

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 14, 2020, 11:24:32 PM
Jackson interviews Salvador at FAIR: Food in the USA is a plantation economy

"It actually is a logical thing for most farmers to plow under their food"

"this issue of food waste is a serious problem. And it is not exclusively on farmers. It’s an issue of the structure of the system."

"a channel, a sector, in the food system, which is called food service. And it operates almost invisibly to the majority of us. But if you do see it, you see it in service entries and back alleys, "

"“the structure of agriculture”—is a system that looks very much like a social hierarchy that many of us will remember from grade school, where we had slaves at the bottom of the pyramid and the pharaoh or king up at the top of the pyramid, fewer and fewer people benefiting as you go up the pyramid. In agriculture, we still have pretty much that system."

"emancipation never really came to agriculture, in the sense that we still don’t pay the full value of the labor that’s required to make the entire system work."

" we recently have been forced to recognize how essential these workers are, by actually giving them that official designation. “Essential” means, “Without you, the whole thing doesn’t work.”"

"we would like to compel them to go to work so that the rest of us could have the comfort of still ordering in our T-bone steaks and what have you. But we don’t pay these people in a way that reflects how essential they are. "

" they do work that no one in this country is willing to do. "

"under high periods of unemployment, like the one that we’re going into right now, you would think that unemployed people would seek whatever job is available to them. So there is a labor shortage in agriculture to do all of the field labor and packing, processing that I just described. And Americans are not doing that work."

"There’s a demand for agricultural labor. We’re not filling in it domestically, so we bring in people internationally, migrants, to do this work for us. And we exploit them, because we don’t pay them the fair value of their labor. So that’s the structure of our food system. It’s very much modeled on antebellum plantation economics."

"it’s another category of person that has been designated “essential, but expendable,” you might say."

"they don’t see the workers as people who have the same needs as they and everybody else in this country do, to have such things as, for instance, occupational safety standards applied to their workplace, to have health benefits, to have retirement benefits, to earn enough to have dignified livelihood, meaning you can afford decent housing, you can afford to feed yourself and your family."

"We actually see them as “inputs” ...  labor is seen as an input. And the way that you try to fatten up your profits is to cut the cost of your inputs, so that you get greater margin."

"What farmers actually need is fair prices for what they produce, which, by and large, they don’t get right now. They don’t exist in a competitive environment, and they don’t have the leverage where they can actually negotiate fair prices for them. But that’s actually what they need. If they could negotiate fair prices, they could afford to have it in their economy to pay all of their costs. But that’s not the situation that we have right now."

"the highly concentrated agribusiness sector, attempting to exploit the moment to cut as many costs as possible, and one of those costs is the cost of farm labor. And they’re cravenly taking advantage of the fact that, for all the reasons that I just described, these are people that are politically invisible; they don’t have muscle. Many of them are domestic guest workers in the country; they signed paperwork that says they’re only here to work in fields, that’s all, and when they’re done, they return home. Or else they’re not documented, and so what are they going to do when they’re exploited? Sue? They have no standing, and so that’s being cravenly exploited."

“If a Worker Is Essential, They Can’t Be Illegal.”

" the farmers that are doing well right now are the so-called small-scale family farmers. These are folks that produce in volumes, and who redistribute in local and regional networks, where they can respond very quickly, to where the schools are now becoming redistribution points for SNAP, for instance, or for school food that needs to be picked up by students that otherwise might not have access to that food, because they’re not coming to school every day, and so on. Or through farmers markets, another very important redistribution method which is very fungible. So we’re learning that that’s actually what works; we need to invest more in these kinds of highly distributed systems, and less in the highly concentrated systems."

"We need to reform immigration policy to recognize the economic value and the human rights that we need to accord to everyone that’s making us wealthy and keeping us well-fed in this country. We need to reform labor standards so that it’s safe for people that are working in the fields, and it looks like they’re living in the 21st century, and not back in the 19th century or the 18th century."

"every fiscal conservative is hiding their copy of Ayn Rand and is lining up for benefits from the nanny state. "

"They’re interested in maintaining share value more than they’re interested in preserving the health of their workers. They put out press releases saying that they value nothing more than the health of their workers, but they’re forcing them to work under highly unsafe conditions"

"We know how to stave further spread, but they’re actually not willing to adopt the recommendations that come from CDC, specifically, because it would slow their production line; it would slow their volume. Well, this is happening to them anyway, which is why they’re reacting in a way that demonstrates plutocracy in action: They’ve told the president what to do, and the president responded by saying, through an executive order, that these plants must remain open, implicitly that workers are compelled to show up to work against their health interests."

https://fair.org/home/our-food-system-is-very-much-modeled-on-plantation-economics/

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 15, 2020, 04:06:31 AM
"This Federal Reserve balance sheet represents a *negative* debt, and in macro-economic terms, should be taken as effectively reducing the nominal national debt."

Do tell. What is the accounting relationship between the Fed balance sheet and the government deficit ?

sidd

Remember that the entire surplus of the Federal Reserve is remitted to the Treasury.  If the Federal Reserve earns a profit, that goes to the Treasury.

With QE, the Federal Reserve uses freshly-minted money to buy assets.  The money then expands the money supply, and those interest-bearing assets generate income that effectively goes straight  to the Treasury.  The balance sheet of the Fed is thus exactly like a sovereign wealth fund.

Just like any sovereign wealth fund, a 4 trillion dollar asset balance is equal but opposite to the macroeconomic effect of a 4 trillion dollar debt.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 15, 2020, 06:34:53 AM
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd


Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: El Cid on May 15, 2020, 08:57:04 AM
What we are seeing right now in the US and other countries is direct monetization of government debt. This is usually done only during war. This is otherwise called moneyprinting. Unlike previous rounds of QE between 2008-18, whose effect was mainly inflating asset prices, this one goes directly or indirectly to consumers (mostly), so will eventually lead to price-inflation. Also, we have yield curve control in many countries which keeps down bond yields. Something similar happened in WW2:

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/treasury_fed_accord
 

When you earn zero percent on your savings but inflation is 2-3-4-.... % then you are robbed of your savings. This is a wealth transfer from the middle class/upper classes to the indebted. This is a sort of wealth tax that covers a big part of the population (eg. most anyone with a pension fund investment which contains fixed income assets).

Government stimulus by fiat is not free. It is taking money from those who have positive net wealth and giving it to those who have none (are indebted). Modern Robin Hood. 
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 15, 2020, 12:05:38 PM
So can we or can't we push the National Debt up to solve this? To 100 trillion? A quadrillion? A quintillion? A decillion? A centillion? What's the limit?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: oren on May 15, 2020, 12:12:38 PM
The limit is when the users of the currency lose faith in it as a store of value and a means of trade. It could be next year or in a millenium.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 15, 2020, 02:07:14 PM
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd

It's still relevant, because the Federal Reserve is again pursuing quantitative easing and related measures right now in dramatic fashion.  This is a potent tool to fight economic contraction/deflation/contraction of the money supply (these are three facets of a single economic phenomenon).

The Federal Reserve balance sheet is a collection of assets (treasury bonds and now some commercial bond assets).  And these are true assets, with a real rate of return--that goes to the Treasury, to help pay for the fiscal budget.  This is exactly like a sovereign wealth fund.

So, acquiring these assets doesn't reduce the deficit, it reduces the debt, in real macroeconomic terms.

The Federal Reserve doesn't give money to any entity other than remitting profits to the Treasury.  It lends, and it buys.  It lends to banks at a policy-derived interest rate, and it buys mostly Treasury bonds at the market rate.  In severely troubled times like this and the Great Recession, it can buy other assets.  They just announced they will be buying corporate bond ETFs.  This isn't some taxpayer giveaway, plenty of normal investors are buying corporate bond ETFs.  And the Fed will receive interest payments, which then will be remitted to the Treasury.

In effect, when the Treasury sells a trillion dollars of bonds to the market, and the Fed buy a trillion dollars of Treasury bonds from the open market, then the government has just printed a trillion dollars to pay for a trillion dollars in spending.

This sounds terribly reckless, a prescription for hyperinflation.  But it's not.  Most of the money in circulation in the economy never was created by the Fed, nor the Mint, nor the Treasury.  Most money gets created in the process of credit/debt, borrowing/lending.  This majority component of circulating money is inherently unstable in amount.  In a recession, borrowing and lending stops, and the money supply contracts, creating deeper recession, further suppression of borrowing and lending, causing further contraction of the money supply.  Positive feedback is present.  There's also positive feedback in the other direction with inflation.

The macroeconomic system is thus dominated by positive feedbacks.  Systems dominated by positive feedbacks display oscillations.  In macroeconomics, the inevitable oscillations from these positive feedbacks are called "the business cycle."

Deflation is deeply destructive, and high inflation is also bad.  The oscillations can really only be effectively tamped by actions of the Federal Reserve.  Essentially it's entire function is to be the economy's thermostat. 

These ideas are part of the foundation of Modern Monetary Theory.  We could do a lot of progressive good by gradually replacing much of the credit/debt-based circulating money with government-issued money.  Doing so could go far in eliminating the positive feedback cycles that produce the instability and oscillations that plague economies.  It can also fund massive amounts of federal spending without causing inflation.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 04:30:44 PM
Government largesse....

It can (will be) also be used to

- bail out the industries that got us into this mess,
- give loads of money to industries that will get us deeper into this mess.

It could be - but most likely won't be, targeted at human activities that might save the sorry arse of most of us.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 05:10:21 PM
Headlines from Bloomberg...

Abbott’s Virus Antibody Test Gets Approval for Use in the U.K.
As many as 5 million tests can be provided to the U.K. each month with immediate effect.


But I thought the test was shown to be inaccurate?

CEOs Are Cutting Millions of Jobs Yet Keep Their Lofty Bonuses

BAU indeed.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 15, 2020, 05:24:36 PM
Quote
... But I thought the test was shown to be inaccurate?
Yep

See: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg264312.html#msg264312
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 15, 2020, 08:34:55 PM
U.S. GDP could decline by 42% in the second quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed
Quote
The already dismal outlook for economic growth during the current period just got considerably worse.

Gross domestic product, which tallies the sum of goods and services across the economy, is on track to crater 42.8% in the April-to-June period, according to a running measure kept by the Atlanta Federal Reserve.

The tracker, called GDPNow, had been indicating a drop of 34.9% a week ago, but a raft of poor economic data since then caused the central bank district to take down the figure even more. The drop would easily be the worst in the post-World War II era.

On top of all the bad jobs reports recently, the Census Bureau reported Friday that retail sales collapsed 16.4% in April, which was even worse than the 12.3% that economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been forecasting. That came following news Thursday that another nearly 3 million Americans filed jobless claims last week, bringing the running eight-week total during the coronavirus lockdown to 36.5 million.

Economic reports in general have been running lower than even the sharply reduced expectations. The Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which gauges the data against Wall Street estimates, hit its lowest-ever point at the end of April in records that go back to January 2003.

Taking the data together, the Atlanta Fed now sees personal consumption expenditures, which make 68% of GDP, falling by 43.6% in Q2, down from the May 8 estimate of -33.9%. Gross private domestic investment, which currently is 17% of GDP, is expected to plunge by 69.4%, down from a -62.8% estimate a week ago.

GDPNow can be volatile and is not a forecast per se but rather a running estimate based on real-time data. However, it is only somewhat worse than other prominent estimates.

Goldman Sachs, for instance, recently projected growth to fall 39% for the quarter. The firm, though, sees a big bounce on the other side, with Q3 rising 29%. The New York Fed's GDP Nowcast is tracking at 31.05%.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/gdp-could-decline-by-42percent-in-the-second-quarter-according-to-the-atlanta-fed.html

——
This breakdown of retail sales data shows why Amazon is leading the stock market
Quote
Consumer spending plunged by a record 16.4% in April, but one category saw a bounce: nonstore retailers.

Included in this category, which saw an 8.4% month-over-month increase, is online shopping. With much of the country under shelter-in-place orders during April, consumers increasingly turned towards e-commerce giants like Amazon for their shopping needs.

Other retailers are also seeing a bounce in online orders, but Amazon's market share, as well as the one-stop-shop nature of the site, means it's often the first choice for consumers.

"In typical Internet fashion, a winner-take-most model played out with Amazon now accounting for 40% of US [gross merchandise volume]," Bernstein analysts said Friday in a note to clients. Benstein pointed to Amazon's large production selection, lower prices, and reliable delivery as factors that will make it a "clear beneficiary of eCommerce acceleration." …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/15/this-breakdown-of-retail-sales-data-shows-why-amazon-is-leading-the-stock-market.html

——
“…beginning a transformation from being mainly a supplier of office products, to a more diverse product and business service platform.”

Office Depot Plans to Lay Off Thousands of Workers
Quote
Office supplies seller Office Depot (NASDAQ:ODP) said it has plans to close stores and cut 13,100 jobs by 2023 to lower costs and shift its focus toward its Information Technology (IT) business services segment, CNBC reports. As recently as May 6, 2020, when it reported its first-quarter earnings, the company said its balance sheet is "exceptionally strong with significant available liquidity, positive net cash position, and attractive debt maturity schedule."

According to the report, Office Depot says the new plan to downsize will save the company up to $860 million by 2023. At the time it reported earnings, CEO Gerry P. Smith touted its strong cash position, saying the company was in a position to "pursue additional opportunities to expand our customer reach," and to expand its products and services. ...
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/05/15/office-depot-plans-to-lay-off-thousands-of-workers.aspx
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on May 15, 2020, 08:48:32 PM
Surely you cannot mean that the 4 trillion USD  fed rollout means that the US deficit has decreased by 4 trillion ? 

But this discussion probably needs moved to another thread.

sidd

It's still relevant, because the Federal Reserve is again pursuing quantitative easing and related measures right now in dramatic fashion.  This is a potent tool to fight economic contraction/deflation/contraction of the money supply (these are three facets of a single economic phenomenon).

This is a great primer (along with the rest of the post, above), Steve.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 16, 2020, 01:29:00 AM
Manhattan New Rentals Plunge 71% as Coronavirus Freezes the Market
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/15/manhattan-new-rentals-plunge-71percent-as-coronavirus-freezes-the-market.html

The number of new leases for Manhattan apartments fell to 1,407, the lowest total in a decade, according to a report from Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel.

The vacancy rate climbed to its highest level in 14 years, according to the report.

The declines were the clearest sign yet in the rental market that Manhattan residents are leaving the city in the wake of the coronavirus
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 16, 2020, 06:32:31 AM
Foor a detailed look at fed reserve balance sheet from a few years ago:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201301/201301pap.pdf

Current position:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

But again, i think this is best discussed elsewhere.

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 16, 2020, 07:35:49 AM
Foor a detailed look at fed reserve balance sheet from a few years ago:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2013/201301/201301pap.pdf

Current position:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm

But again, i think this is best discussed elsewhere.

sidd

A graphic representation may be easier:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL)

This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 16, 2020, 07:46:41 AM
Germany in recession: -1.9% 2019Q4, -2.2% 2020Q1

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/Tables/gdp-bubbles.html#fussnote-2-372914

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on May 16, 2020, 01:51:37 PM
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.

I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 16, 2020, 02:23:22 PM
I agree, dnem. I just don't believe in a free lunch. We will have to pay for this sometime.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 03:00:33 PM
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.


I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.
Ah,
- I remember the days when the EU demanded that the Govt debt of member states was kept to below 60%, & it was Germany & France that in the end blew that one away.
-and I remember a financial crisis- 2008-09 wasn't it? Can't Pay, Won't Pay mortgage loans bundled up by Goldman Sachs, salted with a few good ones and flogged to a naive bunch of other bankers & financial institutions, plus a load of other financial wheezes. That didn't end well.
- and now we have the biggest financial wheeze of them all. The Central Banks are buying up junk bonds and other financial instruments & making humongous loans to businesses many of which are in the "Can't Pay, Won't Pay" category. 

& as long as we all accept that it does not matter, it does not matter. So for pity's sake, kill that child who points at the Emperor and says, "But mummy, the Emperor is naked - he has no new clothes".

ps: And the trickle up effect is in full flood, the loot rises to the rich.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 16, 2020, 05:08:52 PM
This collection of assets has suddenly grown from ~4 trillion to ~7 trillion.  The infusion of 3 trillion in newly-printed cash hasn't so far shown inflationary impact, prices in the US in this short-term period are quite deflationary.  The total of 7 trillion effectively negates 7 trillion of national debt.

It's highly relevant, I think.  The Covid-related economic contraction would result in a Greater Depression without such efforts to maintain stability of the money supply.

I appreciate these discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of responses to the COVID-19 crisis in this thread.  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Obviously these questions are a bit rhetorical. In practical terms, are we getting close to some discontinuity in how these pieces fit together?  The "system" as you describe it has the feel of a perpetual motion machine.

Well, the Fed effectively prints money with these actions.  Hyperinflation *can* result.  MMT tends to advocate for gradually replacing money that's been created through private-sector borrowing/lending with government-issued money.  The system would need to be adjusted to gradually discourage borrowing/lending.  There are several ways to do that. 

However, such an approach gradually makes banking less and less needed, less and less profitable, less and less powerful.  It also requires a shift in policy by the Federal Reserve.  The Federal Reserve leadership are mostly people with a banking background.  If you think like a banker, your policies will favor banking.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: El Cid on May 16, 2020, 06:57:31 PM
  Steve, if the Fed can blink $ trillions into existence, buy up assets, and then put them on the balance sheet, why do we care about the national debit at all? Why do we finance it in normal times with interest payments? Why not blink it out of existence on an ongoing basis?

Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt. This usually only happens  during war. MMT is partly standard keynesian economics, partly mirage, fugazi*. It promises something out of nothing but all it does is to redistribute wealth. There is no free luch.

*watch the wolf of wall street for fugazi:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t9S7AjTVg3s
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on May 16, 2020, 07:21:26 PM
Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt.

El Cid, this is only partially true. Most people don't have a variable interest rate. Therefore average joe does not profit from this. Only the big lenders (i.e. big companies) are able to negotiate lower interest rates mid-contract.

So actually, it's a wealth transfer to the banks. At least for some time.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 16, 2020, 09:03:35 PM
The big companies just have to say "Hi there,Don Baby, or Good morning, Boris Old Chap" and the road is suddenly smooth and clear of all obstacles such as any mention of  the destruction of capital through share buy-backs with borrowed money.

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 16, 2020, 10:05:06 PM
“A Priest giving social distance blessings with a squirt pistol and what, I'm assuming, is Holy water. 2020 folks.”
https://twitter.com/tripgore/status/1261378270190133249

From the comments:   “Que Dios los bendiga…piu piu”
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: oren on May 17, 2020, 12:03:13 AM
Quote
Because printing money is a huge transfer of wealth from those who own nominal assets (bonds, cash) to those who are in debt. 
In the past few decades money printing mostly drove up asset prices relative to cash, rather than create general inflation which affects consumer prices and wages.
Thus the transfer effected by massive printing served to enrich those who made massive leveraged speculation, owning assets while being in debt.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 17, 2020, 12:17:01 AM
Kelton podcast on MMT:

https://www.marketplace.org/shows/make-me-smart-with-kai-and-molly/maybe-modern-monetary-theory-is-an-answer-to-the-covid-19-economic-crisis/

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 17, 2020, 12:53:23 AM
Fed Says Risks to the Financial System Are Worrying Insiders
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/438FF1A0-96EA-11EA-8340-95FDE6EE78E0

Corporate leverage cited as a significant problem that could be exposed due to problems created by the coronavirus

Risks are lingering in the U.S. financial system despite unprecedented actions taking by the Federal Reserve in recent weeks to limit the damage wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic, according to a recent report.

The Fed’s semiannual update of financial conditions provide a near-term account of concerns shared by corporate, financial insiders and others who have insight into how the coronavirus is ravaging the economy.

Economic Stability Report: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/financial-stability-report-20200515.pdf

Corporate leverage was cited as a significant problem that could be exposed due to problems created by the coronavirus.

A litany of sectors, including private credit and loans rated below investment-grade, also were cited as vulnerable. The triple-B rated segment of the corporate bond market, the largest slice of investment-grade issuance, was highlighted.

(https://s.marketwatch.com/public/resources/images/MW-IG643_risk_N_NS_20200515163102.png)

Investors exposed to those sectors could come under pressure. Insiders said outflows from corporate-bond mutual funds could result in limits to redemptions, while global insurance companies that relied on overseas bonds to pay for premiums could become significant sellers of corporate debt.

Delinquencies in consumer loans and mortgages could spill over into banks, especially smaller institutions that provided loans to commercial real estate, small and medium sized businesses, and those located in areas with lower-rated customers.

Some investment strategies could prove vulnerable if markets took a sustained hit such as investments that bet on muted financial volatility, and leveraged exchange-traded funds that amplified profits along with losses.

The Fed’s balance sheet has grown to a record $6.98 trillion in the week ended May 13, up from $6.72 trillion in the prior week, the central bank said Thursday, largely to funds the central bank has provided and actions it has taken to mitigate the economic fallout from the disease.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: etienne on May 17, 2020, 08:09:16 AM
Interesting article about technology and pandemics, but I don't agree with all what it contains. Some local shops also make better business right now, I have never been so much to the shop around the corner and really try to avoid large supermarkets, well I have to say that I never enjoyed them. Ordering clothes over the internet is not only linked with good experiences, I would say that for about half of what we ordered, we just keep it because we need something, few items will go to the local charity, we just send back expensive items that don't match the reqirements.

Quarantine is the future big tech wanted us to want. How long before we want out?

https://reallifemag.com/home-screens/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 18, 2020, 11:27:51 AM
Here is the Wikipedia article on the recession (depression?):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_recession?wprov=srpw1_0
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: El Cid on May 18, 2020, 12:13:13 PM
oren, blumenkraft

Yes. In the past money printing was mostly pushing up asset prices as CBs bought govt bonds. This pushed down their yield and pushed down the yield (and therefore pushed up the price) of all other assets, eg stocks and real estate.

What we are right now seeing is however a new phase. Now governments actually spend the money on salaries, etc. The money gets to consumers. This will create inflation. This is not at all the same as 2009-18 QE. Now we have huge government budget deficits which is inflationary without a question AND CBs control the yield curve like the Fed did between 1942-52.

The question is who profits and who loses if inflation is lets say 5%, and the bond yield is 0%? Anyone who has savings in cash and bonds is a big loser. Stocks and real estate are questionable. Anyone who has fixed interest rate debt is a winner.

The middle class has huge savings in the developed world in pension funds, and a big part of that is bonds, They lose the money that is spent won by those who are (net ) indebted.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2020, 07:37:34 PM
It seems the markets have decided (at least until tomorrow) that fairly soon it will not be so much BAU, as BAU2.

Loads-a-money to be made during this period of creative destruction?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 19, 2020, 02:15:14 AM
Japan in recession:

"The 3.4% fall in growth domestic product (GDP) for the first three months of 2020, follows a 6.4% decline during the last quarter of 2019, pushing Japan into a technical recession."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52570721

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 19, 2020, 02:28:32 AM
Well, I guess we will learn some new economics From this experience.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 19, 2020, 03:00:38 AM
(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106542248-1589814994337-20200518_employment_population_ratio_april_2020.png?v=1589815104&w=678&h=468)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 19, 2020, 01:10:21 PM
Quote
LisaBaumann (@LisaBaumann) 5/18/20, 3:52 PM
BREAKING (AP): Judge tosses out Oregon's coronavirus restrictions
https://twitter.com/lisabaumann/status/1262471181636001792
- Oregon Gov. Kate Brown says she will immediately appeal the ruling to the state Supreme Court to try to keep coronavirus emergency orders in effect, reports @andrewselsky & @gflaccus: bit.ly/2zRwAQ5

< Make up of the Oregon Supreme Court.  (Judge Appointed by)
Lynn Nakamoto (Brown)
Rebecca Duncan (Brown)
Adrienne Nelson (Brown)
Thomas Balmer (Kitzhaber) (D)
Chris Garrett (Brown)
Martha Walters (Kulongoski) (D)
Meagan A. Flynn (Brown)
No chance Brown will lose on appeal.

Mary R (@FastEVRides) 5/18/20, 6:39 PM
I was pretty excited until I realized judge’s jurisdiction is Baker County, a rural county in NE corner of OR.
Still... it may embolden other lawsuits.
Love this quote:
“..the damage to Oregonians and their livelihood was greater than the dangers presented by the coronavirus.“
https://twitter.com/fastevrides/status/1262513215361085441
<Who coulda seen this coming....
<< The lawsuits or damage from mitigation?  Both were inevitable from the minute these governors started the unjustified, junk science lockdowns, but the media spin, fear-mongering and panic porn has been unparalleled.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 19, 2020, 10:02:11 PM
Michael Pettis on Twitter:
Quote
"Tang Jie, one of the very smart students in my Sunday seminar, presented the following graph in today’s meeting. It shows subway ridership this year in 30 major Chinese cities compared to the same period last year. Jie pointed out at least three interesting things about this...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1262055347365138432
(Image below.)

"...graph. First, while subway ridership dropped sharply during Chinese New Year for both years, in 2019 it recovered within a week, whereas this year we have seen only a partial recovery over the 14 weeks of lockdown. As of last week ridership during the work week (the graph..."
"...shows, not surprisingly, how ridership is much higher on weekdays than on weekends) was just over 60% of 2019’s level. Second, notice how every Friday, in 2019, ridership surges. This is almost certainly because after work, there is a second wave of ridership as people go..."
"...out on weekend nights. So far this year even as ridership recovers we haven’t seen the Friday surge. This shows pretty clearly that while life is returning to normal from a work perspective, it is taking longer from an entertainment perspective. The third interesting thing..."
"...about the graph reinforces the second: weekend ridership has recovered by a lot less than weekday ridership – it is just over 50% of normal. Together these suggest that it might take a lot longer for most people to return to their normal lives as consumers than to return..."
"...to their normal lives as workers. ...”
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 20, 2020, 08:27:18 PM
The entire economy will sink if the federal government doesn't bail out states
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/19/perspectives/state-government-bailout/
Quote
But no state will escape the financial black hole created by the crisis. Nationwide, we estimate that state and local governments will have Covid-19 budget shortfalls totaling at least $500 billion through fiscal year 2022. This is stunning — equal to nearly one-fifth of pre-crisis annual revenues — and does not include the direct health care costs states are bearing to battle the virus. So far, the federal government has picked up these health care costs. It will need to continue to do so.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Alexander555 on May 20, 2020, 09:33:28 PM
And the US budget deficit already stands at 3,25 trillion for this year. Trump is on the right way to follow in Obama's footsteps. The double US debt in 8 years. https://usdebtclock.org
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 20, 2020, 11:33:01 PM
UK 3 year note interest rates go negative:

"the U.K. auctioned £3.75 billion ($4.6 billion) of 3-year notes at an average rate of -0.003%. "

"France had 1.4 trillion euros ($1.5 trillion) of debt outstanding with negative yields, and Germany had 1.24 trillion euros."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/britain-sells-its-first-bonds-at-a-negative-interest-rate-2020-05-20

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 21, 2020, 02:37:02 AM
Cambridge University moves lectures online until summer 2021
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

Cambridge University has become the first university to announce measures for the full 2020-2021 academic year, saying that it will move all lectures online, according to a Press Association report.

It may be possible for smaller teaching groups to take place if they conform to physical-distancing requirements, the university said, adding that the decision will be reviewed should there be any changes to "official advice on coronavirus".

--------------------------------

Trump says he will sign order to cut federal regulations
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/coronavirus-deaths-brazil-reach-daily-record-live-updates-200519232823246.html

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will sign an executive order directing federal agencies to eliminate "unnecessary regulations that impede economic recovery".

"I'm directing agencies to review the hundreds of regulations we've already suspended in response to the virus and make these suspensions permanent where possible," Trump said at a Cabinet meeting.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on May 21, 2020, 02:28:11 PM
A First Dog on the Moon live action cartoon! Will the coronavirus save us from climate change?
First Dog on the Moon


No it will not

https://youtu.be/-cPbWZoNL8g

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/21/a-first-dog-on-the-moon-live-action-cartoon-will-the-coronavirus-save-us-from-climate-change

https://youtu.be/-cPbWZoNL8g
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on May 21, 2020, 10:34:48 PM
We need to reduce emissions by 7.8% per year every year. Not long ago our accidental reduction from this mess was at 8% (last time it was at 11%) but that is not going to last. And that is a reduction in a lot of travel and quite a bit of production.

The virus won´t safe us so we have to do it ourselves but that requires more cooperation and also sacrifices for all of us.

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2020, 01:05:54 AM
This is how fast Americans are spending their stimulus checks — and here’s a breakdown of what they’re buying
Quote
Economists looked at the spending and saving habits of more than 1,600 people who received their stimulus check by April 21

When Americans received stimulus checks during the Great Recession, studies indicated many spent at least of portion of their money on cars.  During the 2008 stimulus program, up to 90% of the rise in durable good spending had to do with auto spending, according to previous research by the American Economic Association. (At that time, the government paid an individual between $300 and $600 and couples received between $600 and $1,200. The government paid $300 per child as well.)

When Americans received their $1,200 stimulus check [this spring], as many have used it to keep a roof over their head and food on the table, according to new research by a team of economists. In late March, lawmakers passed the $2.2 trillion CARES Act, which included $290 billion in direct payments. The program allowed $1,200 for people making less than $75,000 and couples making less than $150,000. It also paid $500 per child.               

“Given the size of the 2020 stimulus checks, we might have expected large impacts on categories like automobile spending, electronics, appliances, and home furnishings,” according to economists at Columbia University, Northwestern University, the University of Chicago and the University of Southern Denmark.

“Instead, it seems that individuals are catching up with rent and bill payments as well as engaging in spending on food, personal care, and nondurables.” ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-fast-americans-are-spending-their-stimulus-checks-and-heres-a-breakdown-of-what-theyre-buying-2020-05-15
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2020, 01:35:57 AM
U.S.:  For the first time in 20 years, AAA will not issue a Memorial Day travel forecast
AAA Travel: Pandemic Will Suppress Memorial Day Travel but Travelers Already Planning Future Trips
When it is safe to travel, AAA expects vacationers will explore America’s backyard
Quote
ORLANDO, Fla. – For the first time in 20 years, AAA will not issue a Memorial Day travel forecast, as the accuracy of the economic data used to create the forecast has been undermined by COVID-19. The annual forecast – which estimates the number of people traveling over the holiday weekend – will return next year.

Anecdotal reports suggest fewer people will hit the road compared to years past for what is considered the unofficial start of the summer travel season.

“Last year, 43 million Americans traveled for Memorial Day Weekend – the second-highest travel volume on record since AAA began tracking holiday travel volumes in 2000,” said Paula Twidale, senior vice president, AAA Travel. “With social distancing guidelines still in practice, this holiday weekend’s travel volume is likely to set a record low.”

Memorial Day 2009 currently holds the record for the lowest travel volume at nearly 31 million travelers, according to AAA. That holiday weekend, which came toward the end of the Great Recession, 26.4 million Americans traveled by car, 2.1 million by plane and nearly 2 million by other forms of transportation (train, cruise, etc.).

AAA expects to make travel projections for the late summer and fall, assuming states ease travel restrictions and businesses reopen. Already, there are indications that Americans’ wanderlust is inspiring them to plan future vacations.

AAA.com/travel online bookings have been rising, though modestly, since mid-April, suggesting travelers’ confidence is slowly improving. When it is safe to travel, AAA predicts vacationers will have a preference for U.S destinations, mostly local and regional locations, and the great American road trip. ...
https://newsroom.aaa.com/2020/05/aaa-travel-pandemic-will-suppress-memorial-day-travel-but-travelers-already-planning-future-trips/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2020, 02:36:19 AM
About $1 trillion has been wiped off banks' market value, an amount that rivals the annual total of $1.2 trillion seen in 2008

Financial Stocks’ $1 Trillion Wipeout Brings Echoes of 2008
May 21, 2020
Quote
After years of stress testing, financial companies might have been better positioned to withstand a market shock such as that triggered by the coronavirus. Instead, they’re standing out as persistent losers.

Down 29% since January, banks and insurers have trailed the S&P 500 by 20 percentage points, their worst performance at this point of a year on record. Along the way, about $1 trillion has been wiped off their market value, an amount that rivals the annual total of $1.2 trillion seen at the depths of the global financial crisis.

Back then, earnings worsened for eight straight quarters, turning into a huge loss at the end of 2008. Now, analysts expect the industry to see profit declines last half as long, with losses spared.

None of this brings much comfort to investors who just spent 13 years nursing losses from the financial crisis and didn’t break even until last December. ... 
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-21/financial-stocks-1-trillion-wipeout-brings-echoes-of-2008
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on May 22, 2020, 06:00:07 AM
America's Finest News Source: living in futuristic utopia

"it’s like something out of a science fiction paradise"

" it’s almost like I’m living in a dream"

"We’ve finally achieved a perfect society"

"If Rockefeller or Henry Frick could see this sublime world, they would weep with joy"

https://www.theonion.com/nation-s-politicians-law-enforcement-corporate-execut-1843568548

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: nanning on May 22, 2020, 07:00:28 AM
^^ thanks sidd. Interesting and not at all surprising that they think like that. It made me think of this (but without government as the main actor):


From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nineteen_Eighty-Four

Quote
"Thematically, Nineteen Eighty-Four centres on the consequences of government over-reach, totalitarianism, mass surveillance, and repressive regimentation of all persons and behaviours within society.[2][3]

The story takes place in an imagined future, the year 1984, when much of the world has fallen victim to perpetual war, omnipresent government surveillance, historical negationism, and propaganda.

  Dreams vs nightmares.
  Fantasy vs reality.

The insane non-real dreams of a few Big Brothers (billionaires?) are the real living nightmares of all other humans (and all other life on Earth). DREAMS = FANTASIES!
Give a monkey a machine gun... He doesn't understand how it works. Just like our Big Brothers, he just pushes buttons.
Our current situation is not far of. In some aspects we're already ahead imo.

The culmination of civilisation's insane supremacy by using high tech 'magic'. This was bound to happen. Same as with having trillionaires etc. Just an extrapolation of interaction of trends and system (capitalism, 'technological progress' and social accumulation hierarchy).

Futuristic?
I foresee a barren world devoid of humans. Indeed, finally, the utopia (garden of Eden etc) that was here before the rise of civilisation is restored and just needs some time to fully grow back (depending on the remaining amount of heating in the pipeline, the amount of plastic, nasty chemicals and radioactivity).
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on May 22, 2020, 01:42:16 PM
Job growth by recent U.S. presidents

Link >> https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Job_Growth_by_U.S._President_-_v1.png
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on May 23, 2020, 12:30:49 PM
Hertz: Car Rental Firm Files for US Bankruptcy Protection
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/business-52780841

Car rental company Hertz has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US after the pandemic saw its business plummet.

The firm, which earns much of its income from car rentals at airports, said it had been affected by the sharp downturn in global travel.

It will continue to operate while restructuring its debts.

Hertz's international operations in Europe, Australia and New Zealand as well as its franchised locations in the US are not affected.

Its chief executive resigned last week.

Before the pandemic the company had amassed billions of dollars in debt, with the rise of ride-hailing apps leading to a drop in demand for car rentals.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 24, 2020, 05:48:00 PM
The path to monetary collapse
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-path-to-monetary-collapse
Quote
The fact that a liquidity crisis developed in US money markets five months before the virus hit America has been forgotten. Only a rising gold price stands testament to a deeper crisis, comprised of contracting bank credit while central banks are trying to rescue the economy, fund government deficits and keep the market bubble inflated.

The next problem is a crisis in the banks, wholly unexpected by investors and depositors. At a time when lending risk is soaring off the charts, their financial condition is more fragile than before the Lehman crisis. Failures in European G-SIBs in the next month or two are almost impossible to avoid, leading to a full-blown monetary and credit crisis which promises to undermine asset values, government financing and fiat currencies themselves.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 25, 2020, 01:06:34 PM
An “L”-Shaped Recovery Is Not An Anomaly, It Is The Norm.
https://www.dlacalle.com/en/an-l-shaped-recovery-is-not-an-anomaly-it-is-the-norm/
Quote
Many analysts and economists are trying to predict the shape of the economic recovery post-Covid-19. To understand how the recovery may look like, we need to look at past recoveries and at the history of pandemics.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 26, 2020, 01:44:08 PM
CDC warns of aggressive cannibal rats facing shortage of garbage to eat
Officials say rats have resorted to open warfare and eating their young as closures reduce edible waste
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/us-city-lockdowns-rat-aggression-lack-food-waste

—-
“War on motorists, at last.”
https://twitter.com/binanimals/status/1265042664895983616
Image below.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on May 26, 2020, 02:20:32 PM
Quote
... warfare ...

Dat wording though.  ::)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on May 30, 2020, 10:22:26 PM
Rhodes Center Podcast: Possibilities for a Post-Covid Economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPTj5QlNfak
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on May 30, 2020, 11:43:39 PM
Rhodes Center Podcast: Possibilities for a Post-Covid Economy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPTj5QlNfak
That was interesting, thanks for sharing BK

I also liked the Economist’s take on China’s experiences of the ”90% economy”

https://youtu.be/f9v6givfTEA
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Alexander555 on May 31, 2020, 12:04:15 AM
The 2th wave in Iran is probably bad news for the entire Middle-East. The number of cases is still growing fast in the US. The same for several countries in South-America. In Asia and Afrika you still have plenty countries with fast growing numbers. That makes it only more dangerous for a strong outbreake in the NH in the next winter. And that would be a total economic disaster i think.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 31, 2020, 05:02:35 PM
https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

As of May 31:
Quote
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -51.2 percent on May 29, down from -40.4 percent on May 28. After this morning's Advance Economic Indicators report from the U.S. Census Bureau and personal income and outlays release from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from -43.3 percent to -56.5 percent and the nowcast of the contribution of change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from 2.07 percentage points to 0.73 percentage points.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 01, 2020, 05:31:29 AM
(https://static.politico.com/dims4/default/7bbe368/2147483647/resize/560x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.politico.com%2F5f%2F3a%2F94ed95d04c948239470f050ee1ff%2F14-signe-wilkinson-washington-post-writers-group-and-cartoonist-group.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: etienne on June 01, 2020, 09:19:34 PM
I wonder what will be the importance of Amazon, and generally speaking of Internet orders once Covid19 will be over. Internet is very useful for spare parts and replacement of existing products, including clothes, but for new ones, it still is nice to have a shop to get more information, to try the product... I think it will go back much more than what most people expect, like a little bit higher than what it was before the pandemia. I'm not so happy with the things I have ordered because of the lockdown, and the other things I would have ordered them on Internet anyway.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on June 01, 2020, 11:35:14 PM
Your local shop also makes money that the owners are likely going to spend locally and Amazon not so much.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on June 02, 2020, 08:20:04 AM
thanks for sharing BK

Likewise! :)
Title: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on June 02, 2020, 01:35:53 PM
I think these protests are going to have severe economic implications. That will push millions more into unemployment. In Los Angeles they already had a new spike before the protests.  https://www.usnews.com/news/healthiest-communities/articl'es/2020-06-01/george-floyd-protests-likely-to-cause-increase-in-coronavirus-cases
Title: Re: Re: COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 02, 2020, 01:48:49 PM
Alexander, what would be the “method” of the protests costing millions of jobs? Why should people be fired just because some idiots are acting out? I could see thousands of people from businesses where the damage was the straw that broke the camel’s back, but millions?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 02, 2020, 10:52:04 PM
Wells Fargo, Worried About Defaults, Stops Making Loans to Most Independent Car Dealerships
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/02/wells-fargo-cuts-back-from-making-loans-to-independent-car-dealerships.html

Wells Fargo, one of the biggest lenders for new and used car purchases in the U.S., sent letters to hundreds of independent auto dealerships last month telling them that the San Francisco-based company was dropping them as a customer, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

A Wells Fargo spokeswoman confirmed that the bank, which only makes auto loans through car dealerships, will no longer accept loan applications from most independent shops. Independent dealerships typically sell used cars, unlike franchise dealerships that focus on new vehicles from specific manufacturers.

The bank had "an obligation to review our business practices in light of the economic uncertainty presented by COVID-19 and have let the majority of our independent dealer customers know that we will suspend accepting applications from them," Natalie Brown, the spokeswoman, said in an email.

Before the pandemic took hold, Wells Fargo was growing its auto lending business. Auto loan origination at the bank climbed 19% in the first quarter to $6.5 billion.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2020, 10:03:42 PM
Boston Marathon canceled for first time in its 124-year history
May 28, 2020
Quote
The Boston Marathon has been canceled for the first time in its 124-year history due to the coronavirus pandemic, Mayor Marty Walsh and race organizers announced Thursday. The annual race will now be held virtually in September.

"There's no way to hold this usual race format without bringing large numbers of people into close proximity," Walsh said during a Thursday press conference, according to CBS Boston. "And while our goal and our hope was to make progress and contain the virus in recovering our economy, this kind of event would not be responsible or realistic on September 14, or any time this year."

In March, the famed marathon was postponed from April 20 to September 14. But the race will now occur solely as a virtual event, the marathon's organizer, the Boston Athletic Association (BAA), said in a press release.
...
”The @BAA has announced that the 124th Boston Marathon will be held as a virtual event, following Boston Mayor Martin Walsh’s cancellation of the marathon as a mass participation road running event due to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
— Boston Marathon (@bostonmarathon) May 28, 2020

About 30,000 people run the marathon each year and about a million spectators cheer them on, CBS Boston reported. Walsh said the marathon brings in over $200 million to the city's economy each year and raises $36 million for charitable organizations.

Participants who originally registered and paid an entry fee for the April 20 event will be offered a full refund and can participate in the "virtual alternative" race, the BAA said. Athletes can participate in the virtual race between September 7 and 14.

Those who participate in the virtual race must complete the 26.2 miles within six hours and provide proof of their time to the BAA to receive a shirt, medal and other items. ...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/boston-marathon-canceled-first-time-124-year-history/

——-
U.S. savings rate hits record 33% as coronavirus causes Americans to stockpile cash, curb spending
Quote
The coronavirus crisis has Americans hoarding more money than ever as widespread fear paralyzes consumer spending habits.

The personal savings rate hit a historic 33% in April, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. This rate — how much people save as a percentage of their disposable income — is by far the highest since the department started tracking in the 1960s. April’s mark is up from 12.7% in March.

The swiftness and severity of a U.S. economic recovery hinges on whether consumers continue to stockpile cash or start to spend again.

“There is a tremendous uncertainty and virus fear that is lingering, and that is restraining people’s desire to go out and spend as they normally would,” said Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

The previous record savings rate was 17.3% in May 1975, according to FactSet. The savings rate was elevated above 13% throughout most of the early 1970s. The increase in savings came as spending declined by a record 13.6% in April.

U.S. consumers have amassed savings as the deadly coronavirus causes unprecedented economic and societal disruption. The deadly virus — which forced a government mandated shutdown of the economy — has caused more than 40 million Americans to file for unemployment since the virus was declared a pandemic.

“The saving rate is the residual of an extraordinary event,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, told CNBC.

With the U.S. consumer accounting for more two-thirds of the economy, the speed and robustness of economic recovery depends on whether the increase in savings is a result of the shutdown or reflects a more structural change in consumer habits, analysts told CNBC. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/us-savings-rate-hits-record-33percent-as-coronavirus-causes-americans-to-stockpile-cash-curb-spending.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 04, 2020, 04:02:33 AM
Antidepressant Zoloft and Generic Version Sertraline In Short Supply, FDA Says
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1223356

The shortage follows a sharp increase in reports of depression and anxiety in the U.S.

A spike in demand for anxiety and depression drugs has led to shortages of some forms of the commonly used antidepressant Zoloft and its generic, sertraline.

Reports of the shortage, posted Friday on the Food and Drug Administration's website, come as a new survey published Wednesday from the Johns Hopkins University shows a major increase in the feelings of distress and despair among adults in the United States.

... Accord Healthcare, Inc. said it's unable to obtain the active ingredient for the drug "due to the impacts caused by COVID-19." The company estimated the shortage will last 60 days.

Drugmaker Lupin also cited a shortage of the active ingredient, as well as an increase in demand for the product, which is expected to be on backorder for several months.

The shortages follow a 21 percent rise in the number of prescriptions filled per week between mid-February and mid-March for medicines to treat anxiety, depression and insomnia, according to Express Scripts, a prescription benefit plan provider. The company said the increase peaked the week of March 15, just after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic.

Also Wednesday, a survey published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found the percentage of U.S. adults who say they're feeling anxious, sad, depressed or uncertain has more than tripled in the past two years.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 05, 2020, 03:31:08 PM
Vulnerability of UK's Food Supply Chains Exposed by COVID-19, Study Reveals
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-vulnerability-uk-food-chains-exposed.html

The UK has been left "dangerously dependent" on just two EU countries for its fresh vegetable imports, a new study on the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the UK food system has revealed.

The study, published in Nature Food, also reveals that insufficient capacity in domestic food production, just-in-time supply chains and Brexit-related labour market challenges have all resulted in a weakened UK food system.

Building diversity and collaboration in the food system is essential for resilience in the COVID-19 recovery, the authors of the University of York study say.

The UK imports almost half of its food and 84% of its fresh fruit, and is heavily reliant on EU countries for vegetables and salads.

In particular, the UK is reliant on the Dover Strait maritime route and ferry services between Dover and Calais. Most importantly, it is "dangerously dependent" on the Netherlands and Spain for the majority of its fresh vegetable imports.

The report reveals that 83% of the lettuces we import come via Dover, along with 67% of tomatoes and 77% of strawberries.

The authors of the study warn the UK's lack of diversity in sourcing of products remains a point of "acute vulnerability."

... Furthermore, between 70,000 to 80,000 seasonal workers come to the UK from the EU every growing season to support the UK harvest.

"The UK migration policy and associated restrictions on seasonal workers was already causing concern for UK growers and farmers even before the pandemic.

Open Access: Philip Garnett et al. Vulnerability of the United Kingdom's food supply chains exposed by COVID-19, Nature Food (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-020-0097-7
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 07, 2020, 01:00:55 PM
Migrant Worker Virus Exodus Plunges India's Factories Into Crisis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/global-coronavirus-death-toll-nears-400000-live-updates-200606234426549.html

An acute shortage of workers has turned the roar of machines to a soft hum at a footwear factory near New Delhi, just one of thousands in India struggling to restart after an exodus of migrant workers during the virus lockdown.

India is slowly emerging from strict containment measures imposed in late March as leaders look to revive the battered economy, but manufacturers don't have enough workers to man the machinery.

The big cities - once an attractive destination for workers from poor, rural regions -- have been hit by reverse migration as millions of labourers flee back to their far-flung home villages, some uncertain if they will ever return.

--------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2020, 09:42:22 PM
The US went into a recession in February, the National Bureau of Economic Research says, ending the longest economic expansion in American history.

It's official: The recession began in February
Quote
New York(CNN Business) The longest economic expansion in American history is officially over. The National Bureau of Economic Research declared Monday that the recession began in February.

The economy collapsed so rapidly that NBER wasted no time in announcing a recession, a stark contrast to previous downturns when the body took upwards of a year to declare what most people already knew. This was the fastest that NBER has declared any recession since the group began formal announcements in 1979.

Social distancing requirements imposed to fight the pandemic have crushed broad swaths of the US economy, from airlines and cruise ships to restaurants and Broadway shows.

"The unprecedented magnitude of the decline in employment and production, and its broad reach across the entire economy, warrants the designation of this episode as a recession, even if it turns out to be briefer than earlier contractions," NBER wrote.

More than 42 million Americans have filed for unemployment benefits. Major companies including JCPenney, J.Crew and Hertz have filed for bankruptcy. And economists are predicting GDP imploded at an annualized rate of 40% during the second quarter.

The pandemic marked an end to the mediocre but long recovery from the Great Recession. In July 2019, that expansion officially became the longest period of uninterrupted growth in US history dating back to 1854. It spanned 128 months, easily breaking the prior record of 120 months set between March 1991 and March 2001 during the dotcom boom.

Normally, economists define a recession as consecutive quarters of negative growth. The United States already endured one quarter of a shrinking economy, with GDP dropping by 5% during the first quarter. NBER decided not to wait for a second quarter of a contracting economy, although it is widely expected to happen during the second quarter. The body also declared that while the economy peaked on a monthly basis in February, the quarterly peak happened in the fourth quarter. That disparity "reflects the unusual nature of this recession," NBER said.

"The economy contracted so sharply in March," NBER said, that by the first quarter GDP and employment was "significantly below" the levels of the fourth quarter of 2019. ... 
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/08/economy/recession-economy-coronavirus-nber/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 09, 2020, 12:54:09 AM
The World Bank said today that humanity is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that has spread with astonishing speed and will result in the largest shock the global economy has witnessed in more than seven decades.

Millions of people are expected to be pushed into extreme poverty, the Associated Press reports.

In an updated “Global Economic Prospects,” the World Bank projected that global economic activity will shrink by 5.2% this year, the deepest recession since a 13.8% global contraction in 1945-46 at the end of World War II.

https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects#:~:text=Global%20Outlook,-Download%20highlights&text=The%20baseline%20forecast%20envisions%20a,economies%20will%20shrink%20this%20year.

The 5.2% downturn this year will be the fourth worst global downturn over the past 150 years, exceeded only by the Great Depression of the 1930s and the periods after World War I and World War II when the economies of many war-torn countries were devastated and the United States and other nations demobilized after massive defense buildups.

Because of the steep contraction, the amount of income per person is expected to fall sharply, with more than 90% of emerging market and developing countries seeing per capita incomes declining.

For all countries, the drop in per capital incomes is expected to average 6.2%, much larger than the 2.9% fall during the 2009 financial recession.

Reflecting this downward pressure on incomes, World Bank economists said they expected the number of people in extreme poverty could grow by between 70 million and 100 million this year.

The 5.2% estimate for a decline in global output is 7.7 percentage-points more severe than the World Bank’s January estimate that the world economy would grow by a modest 2.5% this year.

For the United States, the updated World Bank forecast is for GDP to fall 7% this year, before growing 3.9% in 2021. That estimate is similar to top forecasters for the National Association for Business Economics who forecast a 5.9% drop in for the U.S. this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/08/george-floyd-protests-black-lives-matter-donald-trump-defund-police-latest-news-updates
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2020, 03:48:06 PM
Could Unemployed Americans Get Paid to Return to Work?
With so many people earning more money on unemployment than they did at their jobs, Americans may need an extra incentive to return to the workforce.
Quote
Between mid-March and May, millions of Americans were forced out of work by COVID-19. But now that the country is largely reopening and jobs are getting added, it begs the question: Will unemployed Americans actually want to go back to their employers?

Ever since the CARES Act was passed, unemployed workers have been eligible for a $600 weekly boost in unemployment on top of their regular benefit. As such, some people have actually been earning more money on unemployment than they did at their previous jobs. And while that $600 weekly boost is set to expire at the end of July, lawmakers are pushing to extend it all the way into January of 2021. In fact, retaining that weekly unemployment boost is one of the most notable provisions of the HEROES Act, which also calls for a follow-up round of stimulus payments.

It's for this reason that a new bill was recently introduced to entice workers to return to their jobs and get off unemployment benefits. The Reopening America by Supporting Workers and Businesses Act of 2020 calls for a $1,200 reemployment bonus, so to speak. Workers who return to a job will be entitled to a one-time payment of $1,200, or two weekly payments of $600. But is that really such a good deal?

Is a one-time boost worth the struggle and risk?
While it's true that some Americans may be eager to stay on unemployment benefits right now because they've seen an increase in income as a result, that's not the only reason workers may be hesitant to get back to their jobs. Returning to work is, for some people, a risky prospect from a COVID-19 perspective, particularly those who are customer-facing or work in environments that don't lend to social distancing.

Then there's child care to think about. Many camp programs are closed for the summer, and for those who don't where to put their kids in July and August, returning to work is an impossible ask. Furthermore, it's too soon to tell whether schools will reopen fully in September, and if they don't, these same child care issues could extend well into the latter part of the year. As such, it's understandable that some workers would rather collect unemployment benefits than grapple with the risks and challenges of going back to a job.

Of course, many people rely on their employers to provide health insurance, so that alone may be a motivator to get back into the workforce. But if the aforementioned problems remain unaddressed, a $1,200 payment alone won't be enough to overcome them.

Still, having too many people out of work as the economy reopens is bad for businesses, and is apt to slow our collective recovery. As such, lawmakers may need to get together to come up with a proposal that makes it more feasible and enticing for workers to return to their jobs -- and do a lot better than a single $1,200 payment.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/09/could-unemployed-americans-get-paid-to-return-to-w.aspx
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2020, 07:24:15 PM
Many epidemiologists are already comfortable going to the doctor, socializing with small groups outside or bringing in mail, despite the coronavirus. But unless there’s an effective vaccine or treatment first, it will be more than a year before many say they will be willing to go to concerts, sporting events or religious services. And some may never greet people with hugs or handshakes again.

These are the personal opinions of a group of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who were asked by The New York Times when they expect to resume 20 activities of daily life, assuming that the pandemic and the public health response to it unfold as they expect.

When 511 Epidemiologists Expect to Fly, Hug and Do 18 Other Everyday Activities Again
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 10, 2020, 08:55:21 AM
https://youtu.be/7CMUtKWubxg
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on June 10, 2020, 01:24:56 PM
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Clever, well-done satirical send up of the Aussie government response. Worth watching if you like that sort of thing.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on June 10, 2020, 02:01:37 PM
Chickzilla!! be afraid, be very afraid.

'Like a Stephen King movie': feral chickens return to plague New Zealand village
Lockdown may have vanquished Covid-19, but it has enabled the birds to make an unwanted comeback
Quote
Their raucous clucking deprives residents of sleep. They leave the neighbourhood “wrecked”. And food left out for them attracts “rats the size of cats” to an otherwise peaceful, leafy suburb.

New Zealand’s national lockdown to quell the spread of Covid-19 appears to have vanquished the virus, but it has had one unintended consequence: the re-emergence of a plague – not of frogs or locusts but of feral chickens, a flock of which is once again menacing an area of west Auckland.

Residents of Titirangi, a suburb of fewer than 4,000 people and about 20-30 feral chickens, emerged from New Zealand’s coronavirus lockdown to find a nightmare they thought had ended was not over. The feral chickens, which council contractors had been working to gently capture and rehome since their numbers peaked in 2019, had multiplied during the shutdown.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/10/like-a-stephen-king-movie-feral-chickens-return-to-plague-new-zealand-village
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on June 10, 2020, 02:06:19 PM
They should get some pigs to distract them.  ;)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 11, 2020, 05:01:47 PM
Fed says it will keep stimulus coming for years
Quote
New York(CNN Business) The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged Wednesday and committed to maintaining its unprecedented stimulus plan until the economy "has weathered recent events."
That means it could be years until interest rates rise again. The Fed's "dot plot", which reflects the forecasts of the central bank's policy makers, isn't showing any rate hikes this year or in 2021. Even in 2022, the majority of policymakers believe rates will remain at the current rate levels.
"We're not thinking about raising rates -- we're not even thinking about thinking about raising rates," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters during Wednesday's press conference.

So far, the central bank has also opposed negative interest rates, which other developed world central banks have had to revert to. But voices supporting negative rates from within the Federal Reserve network are getting louder.

The market seemed pleased with the central bank's update, and stocks briefly jumped. Lower interest rates allow companies to borrow at lower rates, which is good for the stock market.
The Fed also said it would increase its purchases of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities to keep the market functioning smoothly.
"For now it gives the market what it wanted and needed," Drew Matus, chief market strategist at MetLife Investment Management.

The Fed slashed interest rates to near zero in March at the outset of the coronavirus pandemic. Since then, the central bank has committed billions of dollars to supporting financial markets, businesses, and state and local governments.
But the central bank, as well as the federal government, might have to do more to get the economy back on its feet, Powell reiterated in Wednesday's press conference.

Unemployment crisis
One of the Fed's chief goals is to foster economic conditions that achieve both stable prices and maximum sustainable employment.
The central bank acknowledged the "tremendous human and economic hardship" that the coronavirus pandemic has brought upon people around the world. By December, the Fed expects the unemployment rate to fall to 9.3%, down from 13.3% in May, but still substantially above the 3.5% rate from February -- a near 50-year low.

Millions of people won't get their old jobs back, "and there may not be a job for them for some time," said Powell during the news conference.
Even by the end of 2022, the unemployment rate is still projected to be 5.5%, far higher than at the start of this year.
Powell reiterated that some demographic group, notably women, black and Hispanic workers, are bearing the brunt of the unemployment crisis.


The Fed doesn't expect the economic difficulties will let up anytime soon: It updated its economic projections for the year, predicting a 6.5% drop in gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, in 2020.
But Powell rejected comparisons to the Great Depression, telling reporters he doesn't think it "is a good example or likely outcome for a model of what's happening here at all, I really don't."
Part of the uniqueness of the pandemic recession, for example, is that in a way it's manmade: The economy was artificially switched off to prevent the spread of the virus.
"The path ahead for the economy is highly uncertain and continues to depend to a significant degree on the path of the pandemic," Powell said.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/10/economy/federal-reserve-june-meeting/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on June 11, 2020, 07:14:17 PM
Stocks set to plunge at the open on virus second wave concern, Dow futures down 1500 points

Link >> https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/10/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 12, 2020, 07:25:35 PM
The state of Texas has reopened its businesses, and says local governments cannot override that order.  Even though Houston is seeing a sharp rise in hospitalizations,  the most the city can do at the moment is warn people about it.

Texas' most populous county unveils COVID-19 warning system
Quote
HOUSTON (AP) - Houston area officials on Thursday unveiled a new color-coded threat level warning system for the public amid growing concerns that local COVID-19 related hospitalizations are at their highest levels since the pandemic began and have steadily risen as the state has continued to reopen.

“I want the reopening to be successful. I want the economy to be resilient. But I’m growing increasingly concerned that we may be approaching the precipice of a disaster,” Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo said about rising local hospital admissions due to the coronavirus.

In Harris County, where Houston is located, the number of people hospitalized with suspected and confirmed cases of COVID-19 has gone from 479 on May 1, when Texas started to reopen its businesses, to 776 as of Wednesday, an increase of 62%, according to data from the Southeast Texas Regional Advisory Council, a state group that coordinates the region’s emergency response to disasters.
...

“The state has preempted local governments from hitting the brakes. What we have is our voice and providing information and monitoring the situation” and encouraging people to wear masks and engage in social distancing and proper hygiene, Turner said.

A spokesman for Gov. Greg Abbott didn’t immediately reply to an email seeking comment on whether the state will take any specific actions regarding the hospitalization increases in Harris County or if the state would allow local officials to resume setting their own COVID-19 restrictions.

Abbott this week reiterated he was “concerned but not alarmed” in Texas. He has not signaled any intention of putting social or business restrictions back in place. ...
https://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/jun/11/texas-most-populous-county-unveils-covid-19-warnin/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 13, 2020, 01:49:48 AM
Britain's GDP falls 20.4% in April as economy is paralysed by lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/12/britains-gdp-falls-204-in-april-as-economy-is-paralysed-by-lockdown

Latest figures reflect many businesses closing down and workers placed on furlough
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: be cause on June 13, 2020, 02:08:03 AM
my neighbours have to spend their furlough in Curlough .. the next townland .. b.c.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 13, 2020, 02:14:23 AM
More time to practice the accordion?  ;)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5CTozDooZVk
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 13, 2020, 02:16:13 AM
So Long, New York: Pandemic and Protests Spark New Exodus to Suburbs
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/12/new-york-exodus-suburbs-remote-working-pandemic-protests

The rise of remote working during the coronavirus crisis has led many to rethink whether they need to live so close to the office

-------------------------------

... Green Acres is the place to be.
Farm livin' is the life for me.
Land spreadin' out so far and wide
Keep Manhattan, just give me that countryside.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 13, 2020, 02:56:10 AM
Lufthansa to Cut 22,000 Full-time Jobs: Reports
https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/guid/A749FAC3-164F-4BD3-983A-D0846A7E80A9

Deutsche Lufthansa will cut 22,000 full-time jobs, the airline said Thursday according to media reports. Half of the job losses will be in Germany as it said that it would operate 100 fewer aircraft following the coronavirus crisis, according to reports.

-----------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Iain on June 14, 2020, 02:52:26 PM
Vox,

Steady, there.

You may not have been aware of the sectarian significance of that accordion band when you posted.

They are Orange marchers.

Iain
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 14, 2020, 09:30:52 PM
No offense Iain.

I have several blind spots and that apparently is one of them.

My focus was entirely on musical instruments; no deeper.

From a distance I can't tell the difference between a Sunni and a Shiite either.

All I know is they make damn fine beer in Ireland; and if the pubs were open in these parts, I'd have a couple. :)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 15, 2020, 02:37:38 PM
Texas Has Shifted to an “It’s Your Responsibility” Pandemic Plan
Quote
As new coronavirus cases and hospitalizations reach their highest levels yet, the state is relying less on restrictions and more on individual decisions—in ways that raise the risks for Texans as a group.

In late March, as “flatten the curve” served as a national mantra, Texans largely accepted strict mandatory public safety measures to protect themselves and their neighbors—and especially their elders—from a disease that had wreaked havoc throughout the world. While the order was in place, Texas avoided the sort of exponential growth seen in New York and Northern Italy.

As cities now face rising hospitalizations and case counts, though, the politics around orders that close down businesses and prevent public gatherings have changed. When heavy restrictions were in place, armed right-wing protesters showed up everywhere from bars to hair salons demanding the right to buy a drink or get a haircut. More recently, a broad coalition of demonstrators against police brutality, galvanized by the killing of longtime Houstonian George Floyd at the hands of the Minneapolis police, have gathered, often packed closely together (though outdoors), for protests across the state.

Last weekend, the Washington Post opinions section published a column headlined “Social Distancing Is Over.” The piece argued that “we’ll never be able to lock down our cities again; once you’ve let the cat out of the bag, kitty won’t allow himself to be stuffed back in.” If mass protests are happening, the Post’s columnist argues, then on what moral authority can leaders say that church gatherings shouldn’t, or that a restaurant owner who wants to pay her bills must keep her business closed?
...

In Austin, public health experts point not just to the state’s reopening policy as a reason for the rise in infections, but also to residents relaxing their individual approaches to social distancing and mask-wearing. This brings to mind Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick’s suggestion at the start of reopening that combating the disease was, ultimately, a matter of personal responsibility. (Patrick’s comments came not long after he suggested that seniors should “be willing to take a chance on [their] survival” for the sake of the economy.)

A version of “personal responsibility” that looks like “I’ll take responsibility for my risk, and you take responsibility for your risk,” though, neglects the reality of a pandemic. Responsibility may be personal—but risk is communal. Everyone can both get sick with the virus and pass it on to someone else. A person who gets infected while packed into an overcrowded bar can pass the disease to a supermarket cashier who is otherwise steadfastly avoiding high-risk situations. A healthy young person whose sense of personal responsibility leaves him comfortable spending a leisurely evening in a bustling restaurant can infect a roommate who works in a nursing home. ...
https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/texas-has-shifted-to-an-its-your-responsibility-pandemic-plan/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Iain on June 15, 2020, 03:03:48 PM
Vox, no offence taken. Cheers.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 17, 2020, 09:58:37 AM
Coronavirus a Recipe for Disaster for German Potatoes
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/coronavirus-cases-exceed-8-million-worldwide-live-updates-200616003326282.html

German demand for potatoes and potato products has collapsed during the coronavirus crisis, with the vegetable being used as animal feed or for making biogas instead, an industry body said.

There had been a "catastrophic reduction in sales" of frozen, chilled and dry potato products, the German Association of the Fruit, Vegetable and Potato Processing Industry (BOGK) said.

Germany is the biggest producer of potatoes in the European Union and a huge consumer.

---------------------------

More Than 600,000 Lose Jobs In the UK
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/06/coronavirus-cases-exceed-8-million-worldwide-live-updates-200616003326282.html

The number of people on British company payrolls fell by more than 600,000 in April and May as the coronavirus lockdown hit the labour market, and vacancies plunged by the most on record, official data showed.

The jobless rate unexpectedly held at 3.9 percent over the three months to April - despite a record slump in overall economic output during that period - as firms turned to the government's job retention scheme to keep employees on their books.

Meanwhile, the number of people claiming job-related benefits also increased by a monthly 23.3 percent in May to 2.8 million.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 17, 2020, 11:14:09 AM
U.S. Meatpackers Exported Record Amount of Pork to China While Warning About Supply Shortages
https://www.axios.com/meatpackers-pork-china-coronavirus-fc1dd5eb-5107-46f6-8f03-1d32de2b9ec0.html

U.S. companies exported a record 129,000 tons of pork to China in April, even as meat producers warned that the effects of the coronavirus pandemic would deplete the industry's supply chain, the New York Times reports, citing data from Panjiva.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/16/business/meat-industry-china-pork.html?smid=tw-share

Why it matters: U.S. consumers had to deal with meat shortages as many meatpacking plants became coronavirus hot spots. The industry lobbied the Trump administration to intervene to reverse plant closures mandated by local and state officials.

Yet despite their public warnings of an impending shortage, meatpackers did not disclose "that keeping the plants open would also protect their long-term investments in exporting to a country that is vital to their growth," according to the Times.

Since the outbreak began, 25,523 meatpacking workers have tested positive for the coronavirus, while 89 have died, according to the Food & Environment Reporting Network

... “It wasn’t that there was not enough supply. It was that the supply was being sent abroad.”
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 17, 2020, 12:19:41 PM
Navy Rushes ‘Unprecedented’ 1,600 Reservists To Shipyards As COVID Guts Workforce
https://breakingdefense.com/2020/06/navy-rushes-1600-reservists-to-shipyards-as-covid-guts-workforce/

WASHINGTON: The Navy has lost 50,000 workdays a month at its four public shipyards during the COVID-19 crisis, sparking concerns over delays in repairing and refitting nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines.

This spring, less than 30 percent of workers at UK-based Babcock Marine were showing up for work during the height of the COVID outbreak, leading to setbacks in the work schedule.

In order to keep that work on track, Navy leaders have taken the extraordinary step of calling up 1,629 Navy Reservists to fill in the gap at the shipyards.

Since the reservists, however, will need to follow the same social distancing and PPE rules as the civilian workers, “their activation really only helps make up for the about 25% of shipyard workers who haven’t been able to come into work or need to shift to more isolated duties because their age or pre-existing conditions make them more vulnerable to the effects of COVID-19,” Clark noted.

The reserve call-up, the largest in the Navy’s history, could last as long as a year Navy officials say, in order to ensure that critical work on those platforms gets done.

... The deployments will begin in July, with all of the call-ups on-site at Navy-operated shipyards in Maine, Virginia, Washington state and Hawaii.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2020, 05:17:29 PM
U.S. passenger rail service
Amtrak is ending daily service to hundreds of stations. Blame the coronavirus pandemic, the railroad says.
Quote
Amtrak is ending daily service to hundreds of stations outside the Northeast, and you can blame the coronavirus pandemic, the railroad said this week.

Starting Oct. 1, most Amtrak long-distance trains will operate three times a week instead of daily, the company said in a memo to employees Monday.

The carrier is also planning to enter fiscal year 2021 with reduced train frequencies in the Northeast Corridor, the busiest in its network, and on its state-funded routes, the company said.

The downsized operations come as Amtrak prepares to cut up to 20 percent of its staff in response to the financial crisis left by the pandemic. Demand for service — and the company’s revenue — plummeted to historic lows starting in mid-March as states implemented strict coronavirus shutdowns.

“Congress is not going to support us indefinitely to run mostly empty trains,” Roger Harris, Amtrak’s executive vice president and chief marketing and revenue officer, said in the memo to employees. “We need to demonstrate that we are using our resources efficiently and responsibly.”

Amtrak said last month that it needs nearly $1.5 billion in supplemental funding from the federal government to maintain “minimum service levels,” anticipating ridership will not recover to pre-pandemic levels in fiscal 2021. Even with the supplemental funding, the company said, it would need to cut service and personnel to stay afloat.

Amtrak estimates that ridership in the next fiscal year may drop to 16 million, or roughly 50 percent of pre-pandemic levels.

Ridership was down 95 percent during the height of the pandemic, and the Northeast Corridor, which had several coronavirus hot spots, was hit especially hard. Even as states begin to reopen, ridership remains down 90 percent. ...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/amtrak-is-ending-daily-service-to-hundreds-of-stations-blame-the-coronavirus-pandemic-the-railroad-says/ar-BB15zVal
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2020, 05:52:03 PM
Consequence:  A future with reduced “massing” in our mass transportation?
Quote
Virgin Hyperloop (@virginhyperloop) 6/17/20, 11:24 AM
As we look towards a post-COVID world, public transportation needs to adapt and evolve. With Virgin Hyperloop, dynamically scheduled pods could anticipate and control ridership to ensure physical distancing, when needed. Read more:

Quote
Virgin Hyperloop Is Designing Travel That Will Enable You To Work From Anywhere
https://www.forbes.com/sites/martineparis/2020/06/01/virgin-hyperloop-is-designing-travel-that-will-enable-you-to-work-from-anywhere/amp/
https://twitter.com/virginhyperloop/status/1273275387565322240
Image below; brief video at the link
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Alexander555 on June 20, 2020, 11:37:09 PM
Look like the US is going to be in trouble. And a 2th wave is moving in, and probably a big 3th wave next winter. Already 20 million people without income. And that's whithout what's happening at the black market. That's probably even more than 20 million people. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-labor-market-recovery-stalling-second-wave-of-layoffs-underway-idUSKBN23P0G2
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Alexander555 on June 20, 2020, 11:47:08 PM
400 000 usd for 3 weeks in the hospital. Looks like they know very well that the bills go to the government or the insurer. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/nyregion/coronavirus-billing-nyc.html?
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 21, 2020, 06:15:48 PM
The Latest Pandemic Shortage: Coins Are The New Toilet Paper
https://www.npr.org/2020/06/21/880958665/the-latest-pandemic-shortage-coins-are-the-new-toilet-paper

Just as supplies of toilet paper are finally getting back to normal, the coronavirus has triggered another shortage of something we typically take for granted: pocket change.

Banks around the country are running low on nickels, dimes, quarters and even pennies. And the Federal Reserve, which supplies banks, has been forced to ration scarce supplies.

"It was just a surprise," said Gay Dempsey, who runs the Bank of Lincoln County in Tennessee when she learned of the rationing order. "Nobody was expecting it."

Dempsey's bank typically dispenses 400 to 500 rolls of pennies each week. Under the rationing order, her allotment was cut down to just 100 rolls, with similar cutbacks in nickels, dimes and quarters.

... Rural banks in particular seem to be getting shortchanged, according to Colin Barrett, CEO of the Tennessee Bankers Association.

Rep. John Rose, R-Tenn., sounded the alarm last week during a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee.

"My fear is that customers who use these banks will react very poorly," Rose said. "And I know that we all don't want to wake up to headlines in the near future such as 'Banks Out Of Money.'"

... The Mint produced fewer coins than usual this spring in an effort to protect employees from infection. But the larger problem — as with many other pandemic shortages — is distribution.

During the lockdown, many automatic coin-sorting machines that people typically use to recycle loose change were off-limits. And with many businesses closed, unused coins piled up in darkened cash drawers, pants pockets and on nightstands, even as banks went begging.

"The flow of coins through the economy ... kind of stopped," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said.

... While a growing number of people rely on credit cards or smart phone apps for many transactions today, the coin crunch is a reminder that sometimes you just need change.

"Cash is still king, I guess," Dempsey mused.

(https://www.nj.com/resizer/hWI8N2q1HWr9yaY1Aq1WRGkA1KU=/450x0/smart/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/advancelocal/B5NTI3H2BJHDVAYCBK64GEEAJY.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 24, 2020, 03:38:43 PM
(https://m.arcamax.com/newspics/184/18440/1844050.gif)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 24, 2020, 05:13:10 PM
"The steep contraction in economic activity and fiscal revenues, along with the sizable fiscal support, has further stretched public finances, with global public debt projected to reach more than 100% of GDP this year."
IMF slashes its forecasts for the global economy and warns of soaring debt levels
Quote
The International Monetary Fund slashed its economic forecasts once again on Wednesday and warned that public finances will deteriorate significantly as governments attempt to combat the fallout from the coronavirus crisis.

The IMF now estimates a contraction of 4.9% in global gross domestic product in 2020, lower than the 3% fall it predicted in April.

"The Covid-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast," the IMF said Wednesday in its World Economic Outlook update.

The Fund also downgraded its GDP forecast for 2021. It now expects a growth rate of 5.4% from the 5.8% forecast made in April (the positive reading reflects that economic activity will be coming from a lower base following 2020′s heavy contraction).

The Washington-based institution explained the downward revisions were due to social-distancing measures likely remaining in place during the second half of the year, with productivity and supply chains being hit. And in those nations still grappling with high infection rates, the Fund expects that longer lockdowns will dent economic activity even more.
...
[T]he United States is expected to contract by 8% this year. The Fund had estimated a contraction of 5.9% in April.  Similarly, the Fund also downgraded its forecasts for the euro zone, with the economy now seen shrinking by 10.2% in 2020.  Brazil, Mexico and South Africa are also expected to contract by 9.1%, 10.5% and 8%, respectively. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/imf-global-economy-to-contract-with-coronavirus-recovery-slow.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 24, 2020, 05:40:08 PM
Bloomberg on Twitter: "Saudi Arabia said it will allow the Hajj to go forward this year, but only for a limited number of Muslims already in the kingdom https://t.co/utyEb1o9gn "
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1275178020198891523
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 25, 2020, 05:36:09 PM
Which students in the U.S. will be returning to school this fall is still an open question.

June 24 coronavirus news
Quote
Washington state is issuing new coronavirus guidelines for colleges and universities as they prepare for students to return in the fall.

“Their return to campus won't be in the usual situation. Changes are afoot,” Gov. Jay Inslee said Wednesday.

All students will be asked if they have Covid-19-related symptoms before being allowed back on school grounds. Social distancing is required, and many larger lecture classes may be switching to an online format.

“We will be building community on campus, but we'll be doing it in a very different way,” said University of Washington President Ana Mari Cauce.

Some context: The new guidelines come as a statewide mask requirement comes into effect for public places in Washington on Friday. ...
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-pandemic-06-24-20-intl/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on June 27, 2020, 02:00:24 PM
As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on June 27, 2020, 02:44:09 PM
I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

The lesson here is, the Fed will always bail out the stock market because they (still wrongly) think this is what represents the economy.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 27, 2020, 03:42:28 PM
2020 Economic Predictions: This Series of Unfortunate Events Guarantees the Epocalypse
https://thegreatrecession.info/blog/2020-economic-predictions-guarantee-epocalypse/
Quote
The troubles listed here in my 2020 economic predictions are so severe and so likely to get even worse that it’s more difficult to imagine they won’t get worse than to believe they will. Just a few of these misfortunes would be enough to plunge us into an abyss of social and financial catastrophes.
Quote
That’s a long list of finger-in-the-wind economic predictions. I’m not saying all of them will be dominant trends this year, and I can’t say when or in what order each one will happen; but I am certain 80% or more of my 2020 economic predictions will play out as stated above, and that is more than enough to assure the deep economic depression I’ve named “The Epocalyse.”

I invite you to offer your own social or economic predictions for 2020 (whether as additions or subtractions to the list above) that you see as highly likely to develop (good or bad) in the comments below so that we benefit from each others’ observations and insights.

You can comment on his site. And let's come back in six months and see if he was right.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: oren on June 27, 2020, 04:01:39 PM
The lesson here is, the Fed will always bail out the stock market because they (still wrongly) think this is what represents the economy.
So very true.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: GoodeWeather on June 27, 2020, 04:12:47 PM
As at 26 June 2020,

- The NASDAQ Composite Index is 22% higher than a year ago,

- The S & P 500 Index is 2.3% higher than a year ago,

- The DJ 30 index is still 6% lower than a year ago.

The 30 stocks which make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average are:
3M, American Express, Apple, Boeing, Caterpillar, Chevron, Cisco, Coca-Cola, Disney, Dow, ExxonMobil, Goldman Sachs, Home Depot, IBM, Intel, Johnson & Johnson, JP Morgan Chase, McDonald’s, Merck, Microsoft, Nike, Pfizer, Procter & Gamble, Travelers, Raytheon Technologies, Unitedhealth, Verizon, Visa, Walgreens, and Walmart.

I am sure there is a lesson in there somewhere.

I decided to go short on the market Thursday after seeing the scenes at bounemouth beach.  The market is insanely overvalued for the state we are in.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 28, 2020, 11:50:53 PM
Without Students, College Towns Face a Stark Loss In Population, Jobs and Revenue
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/28/us/coronavirus-college-towns.html

... For the cities involved, the prognosis is daunting. In most college towns, university students, faculty and staff are a primary market. Local economies depend on their numbers and dollars, from sales taxes to football weekends to federal funds determined by the U.S. census.

Where business as usual has been tried recently, punishment has followed: Last week, the Iowa health authorities reported case spikes among young adults in its two largest college towns after bars reopened. And on campuses across the United States, attempts to bring back football teams for preseason practice have resulted in outbreaks.

-------------------------------
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on June 28, 2020, 11:55:01 PM
(USA) household pulse weekly survey:

"almost one-third of all households expect to experience a loss of employment income over the coming four weeks. Fully 10 percent of American families—that’s 25 million, half of which have children at home—did not have enough food to eat in the prior week. Even more disturbing, one in five households—over 50 million in total—are doubtful that they will be able to afford sufficient food in the coming month. And of the nation’s 65,000,0000 renters, almost 20 percent were unable to pay their rent last month and an even higher percentage—close to 30 percent—doubt that they will be able to pay their rent in the coming month."

https://www.census.gov/householdpulsedata
https://prospect.org/coronavirus/true-financial-pulse-of-americas-families/

sidd

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: nanning on June 29, 2020, 03:13:41 AM
Thank you for that information sidd.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 29, 2020, 07:23:06 AM
US Is Expecting an 'Avalanche' of Evictions
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53088352

... The federal CARES Act, which passed in early April, froze evictions for renters living in federally subsidised housing or in property backed by government loans.

Surveys estimated that in the month of May, nearly a third of renters failed to pay their landlords on time, and over half had lost jobs due to the crisis.

But as the country begins opening up again, moratoriums are ending and 40% of states no longer offer renters any protection. The CARES Act protections only apply to less than one-third of the country's 108 million renters. Missouri is one of nine states in the US that never issued any type of statewide moratorium or stay on eviction proceedings, leaving it up to cities, counties and even individual courthouses to determine how to move forward. As temporary protections are falling away, like a patchwork quilt slowly fraying, hundreds of evictions are already under way in states like Missouri, Virginia and Texas.

According to newly released data from Princeton University's Eviction Lab, one of the first places in the country to post worrisome eviction numbers is Milwaukee, Wisconsin - up 37% on last year. In Columbus, Ohio, eviction hearings are taking place in a convention centre in order to accommodate the number of cases and adhere to social distancing guidelines.

In North Carolina, a 9,000-case backlog is set to resume on 21 June.

Michigan's State Court Administrative Office estimated when its moratorium comes to an end this month, 75,000 evictions will be filed.

In New York City alone, a coalition of advocates estimated that 50,000 evictions will be filed once Governor Andrew Cuomo's statewide moratorium ends.

A study of eviction court outcomes in Kansas City from 2006-2016 showed that over 99% eviction cases went against the tenant.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/59ba0bd359cc68f015b7ff8a/t/5a68e811e4966bee3fb5d6cd/1516824594549/KC+Eviction+Project+-+Courts+Analysis.pdf

As evictions, both legal and illegal, ramp up in the United States they are likely to disproportionately impact a population that has already been devastated by the coronavirus - African Americans.

Before the pandemic, research showed that of the 2.3 million evictions that take place each year (about four per minute), they disproportionately impacted black families, particularly low-income, black women. In 17 states, black women are twice as likely to be evicted as white renters, according to statistics from the American Civil Liberties Union.

... Eviction Lab's previous research found that evictions were most prevalent in cities in the southeast region of the country, and in places where the population was 30% African American or higher.

Jay Martin, executive director of Community Housing Improvement Program, which represents most small, independent landlords in New York City, said his organisation fears that as more people are unable to make rent, building owners will not be able to pay their property taxes, utility bills and mortgages, eventually leading to foreclosures and bank takeovers of multi-family housing units. The worst case scenario could look something like the foreclosure crisis of 2008, with massive impact on rental property owners rather than individual homeowners, and potential cascading effects on tenants.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on June 30, 2020, 08:03:01 AM
This eviction wave is bad. To their credit, Fannie and Freddie explicitly put in the clause on their 1-4 unit for rent home mortgages that if the landlords used their payment moratorium they had to extend non eviction to tenants.  But most mortgages on rental properties are non Fannie/Freddie. Lots sold into REIT, private equity and such.

I know one guy, lets call him Bud, running 250 odd rental properties, and has already seen a quarter of his tenants 30+ days out on their rent, going higher in a couple days, he expects many more to not make rent on july 1. Bud is running late on his multiple mortgages himself.  He will have to file for bankruptcy very shortly, he sees the picture, aint no new tenants to be had. He's trying to cut deals with his tenants, filing a blizzard of evictions but he is under no illusions.

Its gonna go up the pipeline. Some landlords pushing eviction are gambling that they can get new tenants, they are wrong. We have 30 million on state or fed assistance right now. Landlords wont pay their mortgages. The mortgage servicers will foreclose the properties under those mortgages. The lower tranche holders of the securities the mortgages got packed into will lose. Mmmm, that might be pension and retirement funds ... CALPERS comes to mind.

Private equity will, in fact, is, buying then at firesale prices as i type. Looks like a bunch more of the USA is gonna turn into company towns with private equity slumlords screwing welfare benefits outta impoverished populace.

Or wait, on the other hand, the impoverished populace is one of the most well armed in the world. And the addresses of their lords only an internet search away.

Interesting times.

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: bluice on June 30, 2020, 11:25:47 AM
Sounds like a classic redistribution of wealth during bust times. The poor lose everything while the rich get richer.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on June 30, 2020, 11:56:37 AM
Nearly Half the U.S. Population Is Without a Job, Showing How Far the Labor Recovery Has to Go
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/29/nearly-half-the-us-population-is-without-a-job-showing-how-far-the-labor-recovery-has-to-go.html

The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the U.S. adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless.

As the coronavirus-induced shutdown tore through the labor market, the share of population employed dropped sharply from a recent high of 61.2% in January, farther away from a post-war record of 64.7% in 2000. The unemployment rate doesn't capture those who stopped looking for a job.

"To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs," said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank's chief economist.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106596209-1593442547071-20200605_employment_population_ratio_markets_version.png?v=1593442745&w=720&h=496&imgcrop=n)

After the unexpected snapback in May, there have been signs of a slowdown in the labor-market improvement as fears of a coronavirus resurgence deepened in recent weeks. The number of Americans filing for unemployment claims came in higher than expected for the past two weeks straight.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 30, 2020, 05:01:20 PM
U.S. COVID resurgence leads to back-tracking on reopening plans

Arizona orders bars and gyms to close, joining other states in reversing reopening
Move comes on the heels of state reporting nearly 4,000 new Covid-19 cases Sunday, its largest one-day caseload so far
Tue 30 Jun 2020 08.22 EDT
Quote
The governor of Arizona has ordered bars, movie theaters, gyms and water parks to shut down, in a dramatic move that echoed similar efforts by states around the country to roll back plans for reopening.

The order from the Republican governor, Doug Ducey, came on Monday and went into effect immediately, and will last for at least 30 days. Ducey also also ordered public schools to delay the start of the classes at least until 17 August.

“Our expectation is that our numbers next week will be worse,” he said.

Arizona health officials reported 3,858 more confirmed coronavirus cases Sunday, the most reported in a single day in the state so far and the seventh time in the last 10 days that daily cases surpassed the 3,000 mark. Since the pandemic began, 74,500 cases and 1,588 deaths stemming from the virus have been reported in Arizona.

Most Arizona bars and nightclubs opened after Ducey’s stay-at-home and business closure orders were allowed to expire in mid-May.

The state is not alone in its reversal. Places such as Texas, Florida and California are backtracking, closing beaches and bars in some cases amid a resurgence of the virus. Oregon and Kansas, meanwhile, announced Monday that everyone would be required to wear masks in public.

In California over the weekend, the governor, Gavin Newsom, ordered bars and nightclubs in nine counties to close, including Los Angeles, which has nearly 100,000 cases – the most of any region of the state.

The state is in the midst of trying to “toggle back” plans to reopen as case numbers and hospitalizations flare up in sections of the state. Red flags have been raised on a number of metrics, including “disturbing trendlines” in positivity rates, hospitalizations and ICU admissions. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/29/arizona-covid-19-shutdown-rollback-bars-gyms
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 30, 2020, 06:40:20 PM
Fauci has harsh words for the American public AND lawmakers as COVID-19 surges in Florida, California and Texas
Fauci said many states have reopened too quickly, and people are not abiding by rules of social distancing.
Quote
“What has happened, I guess understandably, but nonetheless regrettably, is that people took the attitude in some places of either ‘all or none,’” Fauci said earlier on CNN. “Either you’re locked down, or you just let it fly, and you just ignore many of the guidelines of physical distancing, of wearing a mask ... not wearing a mask, avoiding crowds.”

“We do need to open up again, no doubt about it, we want to get the economy back, but you’ve got to do it in a measured way, and now we’re seeing the consequence of community spread, which is even more difficult to contain than spread in a well-known physical location like a prison or a nursing home or a meat-packing place.

He added, “When you have community spread, it’s insidious, because there are so many people in the community who are infected, but asymptomatic. It makes it extremely problematic to do efficient contact tracing, because most of the people who are infected don’t even know they’re infected. So how do you do contact tracing when someone doesn’t have any symptoms?”

Fauci said the U.S. government has not been doing well with contact tracing, the process of tracing people who have been in contact with someone who has the virus, and instructing them to stay home for 14 days. ...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fauci-has-harsh-words-for-the-american-public-and-lawmakers-as-covid-19-surges-in-florida-california-and-texas-2020-06-30
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on June 30, 2020, 09:30:37 PM
11% of workers "out of work with zero chance of getting called back"

"32.5 million workers who are officially unemployed or are otherwise out of work as a result of the virus"

https://www.epi.org/blog/nearly-11-of-the-workforce-is-out-of-work-with-zero-chance-of-getting-called-back-to-a-prior-job/

sidd

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2020, 12:04:39 AM
Broadway will remain dark until 2021; Cirque du Soleil files for bankruptcy
June 29, 2020
Quote
Cirque du Soleil, best known for its mesmerizing shows that fuse acrobatics with performance art, filed for bankruptcy Monday as the coronavirus continues to ravage the entertainment and theater industries.

"For the past 36 years, Cirque du Soleil has been a highly successful and profitable organization," Daniel Lamarre, president and CEO of Cirque du Soleil Entertainment Group, said in a news release. "However, with zero revenues since the forced closure of all of our shows due to COVID-19, management had to act decisively to protect the Company's future."

Like live production companies across the country, Cirque du Soleil's revenue flow ground to a halt as states issued stay-at-home orders to stem the spread of the coronavirus. The company suspended many of its worldwide shows in March before announcing the temporary suspension of its resident shows in Las Vegas.


Cirque du Soleil's bankruptcy announcement comes on the heels of New York City's Broadway shutting down through January 3, 2021 as hope fades for a rapid end to the spread of the virus.

The loss of economic activity with Broadway productions closed could be devastating for New York City. Broadway contributes $14.7 billion on top of ticket sales and supports 96,900 local jobs, according to 2019 statistics from The Broadway League.

Both Las Vegas and New York City's entertainment economies depend on travel. Roughly 16 million people traveled through Las Vegas McCarran International Airport between January and April of last year, according to airport statistics. Only about 10 million people have traveled through the airport during the same period this year. Airport international and domestic traffic in New York was down by about 40 percent in April, according to the most recent statistics. ...
  https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/broadway-will-remain-dark-until-2021-cirque-du-soleil-files-n1232418
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 01, 2020, 01:04:20 AM
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-live-updates-news-who-team-to-search-for-covid-19-origin-in-china-as-chief-says-he-fears-worst-to-come

Costa Rican coffee beans may go unharvested this year because of a coronavirus induced labour shortage, farmers have warned.


Fears have grown that the raw material may not be picked because of a lack of workers, mainly from Nicaragua and Panama.

Farmers have blamed travel restrictions imposed by the government to curb the spread of coronavirus, which prevent people from both countries entering Costa Rica.

Migrant workers typically make up about two-thirds of the country’s coffee crop workforce
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2020, 08:13:18 PM
U.S.:
Bloomberg on Twitter: "BREAKING: Unemployment payments surpass $100 billion in June, the most for a single month since the pandemic started https://t.co/7GvH98oUgz "
https://twitter.com/business/status/1278070857252904960
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 02, 2020, 09:59:04 PM
CO2 Emissions May Have Peaked, But That's Not Enough
https://www.axios.com/co2-emissions-peaked-climate-change-paris-deal-8a447d76-5678-4b4b-84fc-4dcabfd6b24a.html

(https://images.axios.com/2h12DM1BgTt-Ao_5JxfzEnE87hU=/0x0:2400x1350/1024x576/2020/07/02/1593694849905.png)

More analysts are making the case that COVID-19 could be an inflection point for oil use and carbon emissions, but it's hardly one that puts the world on a sustainable ecological path.

Driving the news: The risk advisory firm DNV GL, citing the pandemic's long-term effects on energy consumption, projects in a new analysis that global CO2 emissions "most likely" peaked in 2019.

- And, per Reuters, the firm also argues that the pandemic has accelerated the global oil demand peak by several years, which they now believe also occurred in 2019.

- Separately, Bloomberg reports on a new Citigroup group analysis which finds: "Oil product demand growth will falter significantly, change its contours and never return to pre-COVID-19 rates of growth."

Why it matters: These new reports are the latest to take stock of the pandemic's unprecedented shock to the energy system and the lasting effects.

But it's also a reminder that the demand reduction and carbon emissions decline that's happening for tragic reasons is not even close to enough to hold warming significantly in check.

Threat level: "Even with peak emissions behind us, and flat energy demand through to 2050, the energy transition we forecast is still nowhere near fast enough to deliver the Paris ambition of keeping global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels," the DNV GL analysis states.

"To reach 1.5-degree target, we would need to repeat the decline we’re experiencing in 2020 every year from now on."

The bottom line: "t's always important to emphasize that peaking emissions does not stop the world from continuing to warm," Hausfather, who is affiliated with the Breakthrough Institute and the research group Berkeley Earth, tells me via email.

"CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere, so to stop warming we need to get emissions down to net-zero. Peaking is just the first (and easiest) step on the long road to zero emissions," he said.

... and then there's deforestation and positive feedback loops.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 04, 2020, 01:16:28 AM
Employment May Never Fully Recover In Some Industries
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/a-breakdown-of-where-the-jobs-are-coming-back-and-where-they-may-never-full-return.html

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106601595-1593704693737-20200702_Where_the_jobs_are_extended_scatter.png?v=1593704731&w=678&h=542)

------------------------------------

Cash-Strapped Bar Owners Reckon With Closing Their Doors a Second Time
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/02/coronavirus-live-updates.html

Six states are closing thousands of bars again ahead of the Fourth of July weekend. But bar owners aren’t happy with the rollbacks.

The stop and start costs thousands of dollars for every business,” said David Kaplan, co-owner of Death & Co, a cocktail lounge with locations in Los Angeles, Denver and New York.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 07, 2020, 04:12:08 PM
Talk of a Democratic sweep is now common among investors.

Wall Street is no longer betting on Trump
Quote
Betting markets have turned decisively toward an expected victory for Joe Biden in November — and asset managers at major investment banks are preparing for not only a Biden win, but potentially a Democratic sweep of the Senate and House too.

Why it matters: Wall Street had its chips on a Trump win until recently — even in the midst of the coronavirus-induced recession and Biden's rise in the polls.
   •   The shift is the latest indicator of how quickly the political and business worlds have aligned in the view that Trump is unlikely to win a second term as COVID-19 infection numbers have spiked again and the economy looks to be stalling. 
...
The big picture: It's not just a reversal from Trump. If implemented, Biden's proposed tax hikes on individuals, corporations and financial market gains would be the most significant since Bill Clinton. ...
https://www.axios.com/wall-street-betting-biden-trump-3f92627c-812f-42a3-a79c-2192787170f9.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: harpy on July 07, 2020, 06:53:21 PM
BAU never resumed from the virus, the supply chains continue to fragment in the US.

Yet almost eerily, the populace has taken the goverment's message to heart:  we're back.

Except we're not. 
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 07, 2020, 07:10:42 PM
BAU never resumed from the virus, the supply chains continue to fragment in the US.

Yet almost eerily, the populace has taken the goverment's message to heart:  we're back.

Except we're not. 

Everyone is looking for an easy way out — but there isn’t one.


——-
Surging U.S. coronavirus cases and forecasts for a deeper-than-feared recession in the euro zone dimmed optimism around a post-pandemic rebound.

European stocks slip as hopes of post-pandemic rebound fade - Reuters
July 7
Quote
As the economic impacts of the coronavirus crisis continue to be felt, the European Commission said the 19 nation single currency area would contract by a record 8.7% before rising by 6.1% in 2021, worse than its previous forecast.

Several U.S. states posted record daily coronavirus case counts, prompting many to reverse reopening plans as the U.S. death toll topped 130,000.

“Renewed coronavirus outbreaks in some parts of the world... supports our cautious stance and adds to downside risks for the advanced economies in particular,” said Jennifer McKeown, head of the global economics service at Capital Economics.

“Even if the authorities continue to shun draconian restrictions, people may choose to avoid many types of economic activity.” ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-stocks-slip-as-hopes-of-post-pandemic-rebound-fade-idUSKBN24814H
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 07, 2020, 10:22:44 PM
Economists Think Congress Could Create An Economic Disaster This Summer
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/economists-think-congress-could-create-an-economic-disaster-this-summer/
Quote
“There’s a distinct risk that between now and November, Congress’s ability to continue fiscal support will be very limited by election-year politics,” said Jonathan Wright, an economics professor at Johns Hopkins University who has been consulting with us on the design of the survey. “That could be more of a drag on the economy than the local and state shutdowns just because the effect would be so huge.”
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 07, 2020, 10:27:20 PM
The Looming Bank Collapse
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/07/coronavirus-banks-collapse/612247/
Quote
After months of living with the coronavirus pandemic, American citizens are well aware of the toll it has taken on the economy: broken supply chains, record unemployment, failing small businesses. All of these factors are serious and could mire the United States in a deep, prolonged recession. But there’s another threat to the economy, too. It lurks on the balance sheets of the big banks, and it could be cataclysmic. Imagine if, in addition to all the uncertainty surrounding the pandemic, you woke up one morning to find that the financial sector had collapsed.
You may think that such a crisis is unlikely, with memories of the 2008 crash still so fresh. But banks learned few lessons from that calamity, and new laws intended to keep them from taking on too much risk have failed to do so. As a result, we could be on the precipice of another crash, one different from 2008 less in kind than in degree. This one could be worse.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 08, 2020, 03:40:37 PM
This ain't your greatgrandpappy's Depression:

What Will Be the Most Desirable Status Symbols in the Greater Depression?
https://www.oftwominds.com/blogjuly20/status-symbols7-20.html
Quote
In the Great Depression, fantasy films about debonair, witty millionaires were viewed as escapist fare. (For example, The Thin Man who-dunnits). In the far more brittle and polarized Greater Depression we're entering, extremes of wealth and privilege will be more likely to spark outrage.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 08, 2020, 03:43:56 PM
Summer 2020 Economic Forecast: An even deeper recession with wider divergences
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1269
Quote
The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response at both EU and national levels. Because the lifting of lockdown measures is proceeding at a more gradual pace than assumed in our Spring Forecast, the impact on economic activity in 2020 will be more significant than anticipated.

The Summer 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the euro area economy will contract by 8.7% in 2020 and grow by 6.1% in 2021. The EU economy is forecast to contract by 8.3% in 2020 and grow by 5.8% in 2021. The contraction in 2020 is, therefore, projected to be significantly greater than the 7.7% projected for the euro area and 7.4% for the EU as a whole in the Spring Forecast. Growth in 2021 will also be slightly less robust than projected in the spring.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2020, 08:09:10 PM
Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.
Atlanta Mayor:  “We’ll never be able to reopen our schools and our economy if we don’t take some responsibility for what we can do as leaders.”
Atlanta to mandate face masks to contain coronavirus
Quote
The requirements could come into conflict with a statewide order from [Governor] Kemp that “strongly encourages” – but does not mandate – the use of masks and bans local governments from enacting stricter or more lenient measure to fight the disease.

Supporters of the restrictions say they’re unfazed by what could be a thorny legal challenge. They point to pleas from public health experts, the growing number of states with similar requirements and the surging number of coronavirus cases in Georgia, which passed the 100,000 mark on Tuesday. ...
https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/atlanta-mandate-face-masks-contain-coronavirus/q5UhAVJtgnTUfXsYOOQv6J/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 08, 2020, 08:22:06 PM
Trump Threatens to Cut Funding for Schools, Slams CDC Reopening Guidelines as Too Tough and Expensive
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08/coronavirus-trump-threatens-to-cut-school-funding-slams-cdc-reopening-guidelines.html

Trump tweets that he may withhold federal funding from schools that do not resume in-person classes this fall.

Moments later Trump says his own CDC's guidelines for safely reopening schools are too expensive and too impractical.

The tweets are part of a pressure campaign the White House is mounting to get schools nationwide to reopen in person this fall, despite record levels of coronavirus infections in several states.

(https://i.pinimg.com/400x/72/67/15/726715cc051c4590ea525dc364eaafaf.jpg)

More sociopathic BS from TRump to drown out the book by his niece that records what a sociopath he is.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 09, 2020, 01:20:48 PM
Depression and the Great American Exodus
https://dailyreckoning.com/depression-and-the-great-american-exodus/
Quote
Defining Depression
The best definition ever offered came from John Maynard Keynes in his 1936 classic The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.

Keynes said a depression is “a chronic condition of subnormal activity for a considerable period without any marked tendency either towards recovery or towards complete collapse.”

Keynes did not refer to declining GDP; he talked about “subnormal” activity.

In other words, it’s entirely possible to have growth in a depression. The problem is that the growth is below trend. It is weak growth that does not do the job of providing enough jobs or staying ahead of the national debt.
Surely the contraction we are experiencing would have been called a "Depression" in the days before the Great Depression made the D-word politically incorrect.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 09, 2020, 04:48:41 PM
I found this definition of a depression:

"What Is a Depression?
A depression is a severe and prolonged downturn in economic activity. In economics, a depression is commonly defined as an extreme recession that lasts three or more years or which leads to a decline in real gross domestic product (GDP) of at least 10%. in a given year. Depressions are relatively less frequent than milder recessions, and tend to be accompanied by high unemployment and low inflation."

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/depression.asp

Our current situation is about four months. 
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on July 09, 2020, 05:09:47 PM
But those are abstract measures.
The stock market still seems to bounce up but that does not really translate to what is going on on the ground.

So many people are getting into trouble and this will cascade. All the jobs in bars, restaurants, cleaning the places are reduced. And then you can think of many other examples.

Short version: wouldn´t worry about definition of depression just yet.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 09, 2020, 05:47:18 PM
Abstract?  A prolonged downturn in economic activity is hardly abstract.  A recession lasting three or more years is not abstract either.  No matter how you cut it, we are far from a depression - at least economically.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: jens on July 09, 2020, 06:15:08 PM
One thing to follow in all this mess is the amount of failed states we are going to get in the world. Lebanon has effectively fallen apart during Covid-19. Of course, we are going to get more and more failed states with every passing year, so I wonder if there will be a comprehensive list to keep up with all of that.

What concerns stock market, then one can't really take it seriously. They are pretty much printing money to boost it. Stock market would have to be literally under water to collapse, it has nothing to do with real-world realities. Shame though that the elite has managed to build such a bubble around themselves that nothing outside of it matters. But of course, one day the rich will have to pay their price too, even if again it doesn't get reflected in the stock market, which is just hyperinflated numbers to boost their egos and nothing else.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 09, 2020, 07:25:06 PM
Walrus, if you think we will be back to a 2019 economy by 2022 I have a fitness center here in Twinsburg to sell you real cheap.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 09, 2020, 07:49:19 PM
Walrus, if you think we will be back to a 2019 economy by 2022 I have a fitness center here in Twinsburg to sell you real cheap.

That would probably be a very wise investment at the moment.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: jens on July 09, 2020, 08:05:25 PM
Worldwide Depression is around the corner and will be at least on par with 1930's and will get gradually worse. And this would be the Last Depression before economy collapses somewhere later on (when, who knows. A decade?). So that energy usage peaked in 2019 would probably be correct. The thing is that even if Covid-19 retreats or a vaccine is found, we are bound to hit greater and greater problems with each passing year due to ecological crisis. No economy can handle that. So if anything seems bad right now, it's still pretty good compared to what is to come. So "Covid-19 consequences" will be muddled up with other things happening, speeding the whole process up.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 09, 2020, 09:14:57 PM
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2020, 10:10:18 PM
Newscasters feature a teacher’s response about dealing with the pandemic.

https://youtu.be/x1M_rJqGIjE
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: jens on July 10, 2020, 08:23:25 AM
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.

The previous depressions and recessions didn't have one underlying fundamental that the 2020's have - climate change. In the past cases economy could recover, because planet was still very livable and inhabitable. But it's not going to be the case for that. Another issue - due to globalism the world is very interconnected. So once supply chains get hit, it would hurt more than in say 1930's, when the majority of people were still living in the countryside.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 10, 2020, 03:15:50 PM
Monetary and Fiscal Policy Won’t Help
https://dailyreckoning.com/monetary-and-fiscal-policy-wont-help/

Monetary:
Quote
Well, velocity has been crashing for the past 20 years. From its peak of 2.2 in 1997 (each dollar supported $2.20 of nominal GDP), it fell to 2.0 in 2006 just before the global financial crisis and then crashed to 1.7 in mid-2009 as the crisis hit bottom.

The velocity crash did not stop with the market crash. It continued to fall to 1.43 by late 2017 despite the Fed’s money printing and zero rate policy (2008–15).

Even before the new pandemic-related crash, it fell to 1.37 in early 2020. It can be expected to fall even further as the new depression drags on.

As velocity approaches zero, the economy approaches zero. Money printing is impotent. $7 trillion times zero = zero. There is no economy without velocity.

Fiscal:
Quote
Here’s the problem:

There is strong evidence that the Keynesian multiplier does not exist when debt levels are already too high.

In fact, America and the world are inching closer to what economists Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff describe as an indeterminate yet real point where an ever-increasing debt burden triggers creditor revulsion, forcing a debtor nation into austerity, outright default or sky-high interest rates.

Reinhart and Rogoff’s research reveals that a 90% debt-to-GDP ratio or higher is not just more of the same debt stimulus. Rather it’s what physicists call a critical threshold.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 10, 2020, 03:25:14 PM
jens, I respectfully disagree.  The underlying fundamentals for the previous depression and past recessions were much worse than before covid.  Hence, the likelihood of a second depression seem rather remote.

The previous depressions and recessions didn't have one underlying fundamental that the 2020's have - climate change. In the past cases economy could recover, because planet was still very livable and inhabitable. But it's not going to be the case for that. Another issue - due to globalism the world is very interconnected. So once supply chains get hit, it would hurt more than in say 1930's, when the majority of people were still living in the countryside.

Actually globalism is what will rescue the economies from the recession.  Globalism has created multiple supply chains, so that when one gets hit, another can step in and take its place.  It is precisely globalism that gives the economy its current strength, compared to when people where living in the countryside and had a sole source of resources.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on July 10, 2020, 03:27:57 PM
They were optimized for money so they are suboptimal to say the least.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 10, 2020, 10:04:19 PM
Economy Won’t Recover Until 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/economy-wont-recover-until-2023/
Quote
Here’s the problem.

Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming an unrealistic back-to-back years of 10% real growth in 2021 and 2022, one still does not get back to 2019 output levels.

The hard truth is 96.8 is less than 100.

It would take the highest annual real growth in over 40 years, sustained for two consecutive years, to get close to 2019 output levels.

It’s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10% per year. That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019.

This is the reality of this depression.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 11, 2020, 02:20:46 PM
How bailout debt is painting governments and central banks into a corner
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3092225/how-bailout-debt-painting-governments-and-central-banks-corner
Quote
Regardless of who wins the US presidential election, the next leader will start his term with record government debt. The pandemic has dealt a significant blow to government finances around the world. For some countries, such as the US and Japan, their central banks can help buy time before a debt reckoning. For others, painful austerity measures could be hard to avoid.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on July 12, 2020, 01:25:32 AM
Hudson on USA coronavirus bailout: interview by Blumenthal and Norton

"The word coronavirus is just put in as an advertising slogan."

"So you’re having the pretense of a bailout, but the bailout really is an Obama-style bailout. It goes to the banks; it goes to those companies that have drawn up wish lists by their lobbyists"

"states and municipalities, they’re left broke."

"three months from now, you’re going to have broke states, broke municipalities, labor that cannot, whose savings was wiped out."

"you’re going to have a shrinkage of the economy, a vast shrinkage."

"finance, insurance, and real estate. And this is the only part of the economy that is being enabled to survive."

"since the Obama bailouts of 2008, the entire growth of the GDP has only accrued to 5 percent of the population."

"we’re already in a 12-year depression, the Obama depression"

" the 1 percent that have access to bank credit, and I have their own equity capital, are going to come in and pick up a lot of real estate that’s going to be defaulted on — just like they did after Obama evicted his constituency"

"we’re going to have a much more centrally planned by a coalition of monopolies and the government. In the 1930s, that was called fascism."

"Why is it okay for the Fed to create $1.5 trillion to buy stocks to prevent rich people from losing on their stocks, when it’s not okay to print only $1 trillion to pay for free Medicare for the entire population? "

https://moderaterebels.com/transcript-us-coronavirus-bailout-michael-hudson/

Part 2 of the interview is at

 https://moderaterebels.com/transcript-economics-american-imperialism-michael-hudson/

but is less relevant to this threat. I will post a fuller description in the Empire thread.

sidd

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 12, 2020, 04:37:54 AM
Economy Won’t Recover Until 2023
https://dailyreckoning.com/economy-wont-recover-until-2023/
Quote
Here’s the problem.

Using 100 as a yardstick for 2019 output and assuming an unrealistic back-to-back years of 10% real growth in 2021 and 2022, one still does not get back to 2019 output levels.

The hard truth is 96.8 is less than 100.

It would take the highest annual real growth in over 40 years, sustained for two consecutive years, to get close to 2019 output levels.

It’s far more realistic to assume real growth will be less than 10% per year. That puts the economy well into 2023 before reaching output levels last achieved in 2019.

This is the reality of this depression.

You are making a straw man argument. By the same measure, using 100 as a yardstick for 2007 output, the economy did not recover to that level until 2015.   Yet, no one called that a depression.  Your rosy scenario has us returning to pre-COVID levels in half that time.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 12, 2020, 12:43:54 PM
Again, Walrus, no one called the Great Recession a Depression because the D-word became verboten after the Thirties. This one may make the R-word unusable. We may have to come up with new words.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 12, 2020, 02:04:57 PM
Tom, it had nothing to do with being forbidden.  Rather, it was simply not a depression.  I find it truly amazing how often people try to relate current situations to some past horror without justification.  W have had one depression in history, and it looks like it will remain so in the near term.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on July 12, 2020, 02:26:27 PM
Economy is not a scientific field (yet)! So the D-word definition varies widely.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 12, 2020, 03:46:56 PM
Thus is the logical fallacy in redefinition.  If we change the meaning enough, it becomes meaningless, and any usage of it is also becomes meaningless. 
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on July 12, 2020, 03:48:56 PM
The point is, there is no definition in the first place. So anyone's meaning is valid!
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 12, 2020, 05:08:06 PM
Thus begins the decline into the equivocation abyss.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on July 12, 2020, 06:47:28 PM
Walrus, don't get me wrong. I'm all for precice words.

Blame the economists, not me. ;)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 12, 2020, 06:55:46 PM
From the Wikipedia article:
Quote
Generally, periods labeled depressions are marked by a substantial and sustained shortfall of the ability to purchase goods relative to the amount that could be produced using current resources and technology (potential output).[2] Another proposed definition of depression includes two general rules:[3][4]

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.
There are also differences in the duration of depression across definitions. Some economists refer only to the period when economic activity is declining. The more common use, however, also encompasses the time until the economic activity has returned close to normal levels.[1]
AFAIK we are already at 10% or more GDP decline for at least a couple months, right? We will see in about twenty months if the recession lasts two years. And I don't kow how to evaluate the first definition.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: The Walrus on July 12, 2020, 08:05:34 PM
Yes, hindsight is always a better viewpoint.  We just ended the first quarter of the recession.  Technically, a recession is two quarters of negative gdp, but I will jump the gun here.  The recession of 2008-9 encompassed four quarters of negative gdp, with a maximum of 8% drop in the fourth quarter of 2008.  We have endured one quarter of a 5% drop.  Many consider the 1980/82 recession to be a greater hardship with double dip declines of 8% and 6% combined with high inflation.  Predicting that we will be in a depression two years from now requires keen insight and extraordinary knowledge of economics.  I will readily admit to neither. 
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on July 12, 2020, 08:52:07 PM
Bloomberg thinks the markets will behave as follows....

Bulls to Gain Ground in Market Primed for Virus-Defying Rally

Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 12, 2020, 09:09:39 PM
From Flour to Canned Soup, Coronavirus Surge Pressures Food Supplies
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/coronavirus-surge-challenges-struggling-food-supply-chains-11594546200

Food makers work to meet rising demand after initial lockdowns ate through inventories

Grocers are having trouble staying stocked with goods from flour to soups as climbing coronavirus case numbers and continued lockdowns pressure production and bolster customer demand.

Manufacturers including General Mills Inc., Campbell Soup Co. and Conagra Brands Inc. say they are pumping out food as fast as they can, but can’t replenish inventories. Popular items such as flour, canned soup, pasta and rice remain in short supply.

As of July 5, 10% of packaged foods, beverages and household goods were out of stock, up from 5% to 7% before the pandemic, according to market-research firm IRI.

“We are running flat out,” said Conagra’s Chief Executive Sean Connolly. He said Conagra won’t be able to build up inventory of certain brands, such as Chef Boyardee and Healthy Choice, unless demand slows or it further increases manufacturing capacity.

(https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OG-EQ189_GROCER_4U_20200711115546.png)

Food makers and grocers expect prolonged shelter-in-place orders and restrictions on restaurants, as well as the battered economy, to result in a longer stretch of eating at home. Added safety measures at plants are slowing operations, too. There is enough food in the U.S. to keep people fed, executives say, but every product might not be available everywhere while inventories are strained.

Many retailers in states where cases are surging, including Texas-based H-E-B LP, are reinstating rationing on high-demand items including paper products. They say their distributors are still capping the amount of fast-selling products that can be ordered at one time.

In mid-March, flour sales soared 233% from a year earlier, according to market-research firm Nielsen and remained 25% higher in June than the prior year.

Mark Griffin, president of Nebraska-based B&R Stores Inc., said the chain would be in worse shape if cases rise again in the Midwest because it lacks the inventory it had in March. B&R has been stockpiling bottled water and other products at its warehouses, he said. The grocer has also tried to secure new suppliers for canned products, baking items and ramen noodles. So far, that has only yielded a truckload here and there, Mr. Griffin said.

Soup is particularly hard to source, he said: “There’s no plethora of manufacturers available.”

Campbell’s CEO Mark Clouse said the company ran through reserves of its namesake soup and snacks such as Pepperidge Farm Goldfish crackers during the initial rush of orders in the spring. That demand was a shock to a supply chain that had been largely recalibrated to handle flat or falling demand over the past decade, he said: “We’re racing to try to rebuild some inventory.”

... Wisconsin-based grocer Festival Foods is receiving about 80% of the goods it orders and is removing some products from shelves to make room for roughly double the toilet paper it normally stocks, said Chief Executive Mark Skogen.

... Farmer Direct Foods Inc., a Kansas flour mill and supplier for King Arthur, is filling about 35 trucks a month with flour, up from 18 typically.

The mill has run out of packaging at times, said CEO Bob Morando, and equipment has broken down because he added a shift and hasn’t had time to do preventive maintenance.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: sidd on July 13, 2020, 03:52:25 AM
Big gets bigger: ritholtz on corp sizes and gains

Image from https://ritholtz.com/2020/07/10-tuesday-am-reads-295/

sidd
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 13, 2020, 01:49:34 PM
”Since the summer of 2019, I've been speaking with one of the world's leading pandemic experts about what a global outbreak could look like. Now, as the world enters a grim new phase, he says we're in a whole new ball game.”

'We'll be living with masks for years': COVID-19 through the eyes of a pandemic expert
Quote
"I think what's important is that there's going to be no summertime lull with a big wave in the fall. It's clear that we are having a significant resurgence of cases in the summer, and they'll get bigger. And it'll keep going until we lock things down again."

Unlike the influenza virus, which was behind the 1918 pandemic that claimed as many as 50 million to 100 million lives around the world, Toner says there's no good evidence of seasonality with COVID-19. Until we have a vaccine, any rise or fall in cases will be based on social factors: communities locking down and families sheltering in place. And, as was the case back in 1918, individuals wearing masks
...
As for those who refuse to wear a mask?
"They will get over it.  It's just a question of how many people get sick and die before they get over it."
https://www.cnet.com/news/living-with-masks-for-years-covid-19-through-the-eyes-of-a-pandemic-expert/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 15, 2020, 03:48:17 PM
China’s Food Prices Continue to Rise Amid Historic Floods, Coronavirus Impact
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/floods-coronavirus-create-more-uncertainty-for-china-as-food-prices-climb.html

Elevated food prices are just one of many new challenges China needs to face in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak.

Historic floods in the southern part of the country and the temporary re-emergence of the coronavirus in a major produce market in Beijing are adding upward pressure to prices of food, which rose 11.1% in June from a year ago.

Authorities are closely monitoring this key aspect of the cost of living – and the floods – for their implications on social stability. From a business perspective, the rising food costs are just another factor that the already struggling restaurant industry need to consider as they look for innovative growth opportunities in an era of social distancing.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 15, 2020, 09:10:01 PM
Walmart mandates masks for in-store shopping.  (One alternative is online ordering with store Pickup outside.)

A Simple Step to Help Keep You Safe: Walmart and Sam’s Club Require Shoppers to Wear Face Coverings
Quote
While we’re certainly not the first business to require face coverings, we know this is a simple step everyone can take for their safety and the safety of others in our facilities. According to the CDC, face coverings help decrease the spread of COVID-19, and because the virus can be spread by people who don’t have symptoms and don’t know they are infected, it’s critically important for everyone to wear a face covering in public and social distance.

In addition to posting clear signage at the front of our stores, Walmart has created the role of Health Ambassador and will station them near the entrance to remind those without a mask of our new requirements. Our ambassadors will receive special training to help make the process as smooth as possible for customers. The ambassadors, identifiable by their black polo shirts, will work with customers who show up at a store without a face covering to try and find a solution. We are currently considering different solutions for customers when this requirement takes effect on July 20. ...
https://corporate.walmart.com/newsroom/2020/07/15/a-simple-step-to-help-keep-you-safe-walmart-and-sams-club-require-shoppers-to-wear-face-coverings
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on July 16, 2020, 06:54:56 PM
Crude & stocks down a tad today. Some headlines from Bloomberg today. I am waiting for the fall. But what do I mean by "The Fall"?

7/15/2020 Carson Block Warns Tesla Short Sellers: ‘I Wouldn’t Do That’

7/15/2020 Markets Walk Dangerous Tightrope Before U.S. Stimulus Ends

7/15/2020 Nasdaq ‘Fear Gauge’ Flashes Warning Signs About Tech Rally
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2020, 07:05:48 PM
Americans Tear Up Old Eating Habits, Forcing Farms to Raze Crops
July 16, 2020
Quote
Americans have rapidly changed the ways they buy, cook and eat food in just four months, leaving everyone from farmers to restaurants unable to match their pivot.

U.S. consumers, whose previous food preferences were stable enough that farmers could often make reliable planting decisions years in advance, have shifted their habits at a torrential pace during the coronavirus pandemic. That includes cooking more at home, buying more organic food, purchasing in bulk, forgoing brand-name treats and eating smaller meals due to fewer trips to restaurants with their often oversized portions.

Even one of those changes by itself could throw a wrench in the global food supply chain. Add all five together, and some suppliers are finding they can’t adapt fast enough to keep pace with all the changing consumer demands. Farmers like Jack Vessey, a lettuce grower in California, have been forced to destroy crops after restaurant demand dried up, while Oreo-maker Mondelez International Inc. is cutting its product offerings by 25% to simplify logistics.

“The entire food supply chain has been put on its head,” said Kevin Kenny, chief operating officer at Decernis, an expert in global food safety and supply chains. “Nobody can really do a post-mortem because we are still in the middle of it.”

The ways Americans are changing their food habits are not only multiple and significant -- they’re also potentially permanent.

Almost a third of U.S. adults say they plan to cook at home even more than they do now, once stay-at-home recommendations have lifted. Home-kitchen purchases back that up: In the early weeks of the pandemic, U.S. sales of electric pasta makers grew more than five times what they were a year prior. Breadmaker sales more than quadrupled, according to data from NPD Group. ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-16/americans-tear-up-old-eating-habits-forcing-farms-to-raze-crops
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 16, 2020, 09:02:27 PM
U.S.:  More and more retailers are requiring masks in their stores as a nationwide policy.

Walmart
CVS
Target
Kroger
Kohl’s
Best Buy

CVS and Target join other major retailers in requiring masks in US stores
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/07/16/business/cvs-target-masks-required/index.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: kassy on July 16, 2020, 10:14:51 PM
Not a supply issue since anyone can get a mask. You can add updates in he mask thread.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 17, 2020, 02:50:08 AM
As Jobless Claims Spike, Florida Cuts 1,000 From Unemployment Staff
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/florida-unemployment-office-the-poster-child-of-delayed-benefits-cuts-1000-workers.html

Florida’s Department of Economic Opportunity, which administers unemployment benefits for the state, is cutting nearly 1,000 customer-service jobs – about a quarter of the staff.

The department ended its contracts with two third-party firms, AECOM and UDT, which supplied hundreds of staffers to field phone calls from laid-off workers.

The move comes as applications for unemployment benefits rise in the state and delays persist in paying out aid.

Some fear the claw-back could worsen the situation in a state that some observers see as a poster child of poor administration.

About 900,000 people are collecting benefits in the Sunshine State, a figure that’s more than doubled since early May.

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106619457-1594913260648-20200717_continuing_claims_with_pua.png)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 18, 2020, 03:44:23 PM
Not a supply issue since anyone can get a mask. You can add updates in he mask thread.

It may not be a supply issue, but I would say employees being assaulted by customers angered at COVID mask requirements is certainly a “consequence.”

A new survey finds hundreds of McDonald's workers have been assaulted by anti-mask customers, as mandatory masks become the norm
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3024.msg275034.html#msg275034
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 18, 2020, 05:00:23 PM
Professor Richard Wolff: Coming Economic Crash Will be WORSE Than Great Depression
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=14zbZvXogoM
Quote
Professor Richard Wolff gives his thoughts on new statistics revealing 32% of households have not yet made their full housing payments for July.

About Rising:
Rising is a weekday morning show with bipartisan hosts that breaks the mold of morning TV by taking viewers inside the halls of Washington power like never before. The show leans into the day's political cycle with cutting edge analysis from DC insiders who can predict what is going to happen. It also sets the day's political agenda by breaking exclusive news with a team of scoop-driven reporters and demanding answers during interviews with the country's most important political newsmakers.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 18, 2020, 05:51:38 PM
Side note: in the U.S., polls show the majority of the population is less concerned about the stricken economy than about the growing pandemic.  Many parents cannot go back to work if their child stays home.

In Arizona, school reopening sparks protest movement
Quote
July 18 (Reuters) - Arizona third-grade teacher Stacy Brosius has been called a “liberal socialist Nazi” and a “whiner and complainer” for leading car-based protests to delay in-person schooling, but she says she’s doing it to save lives in a pandemic.

Inspired by Black Lives Matter demonstrations, hundreds of Arizona teachers like Brosius are putting on red t-shirts they last wore in a 2018 strike and driving around cities in cars daubed with slogans like: “Remote learning won’t kill us but COVID can!”

With “motor marches” spreading to other coronavirus-hit sunbelt states, including Florida, and counter demonstrators organizing “reopen” rallies, the fight over the new school year is fast becoming America’s new protest flashpoint.

In Arizona, teachers want Republican Governor Doug Ducey to push the start of in-person school to at least early October after a beloved educator died of COVID-19 teaching summer school and statewide hospitalizations and deaths spiral. ... 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-arizona-teachers-idUSKCN24J0FS
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 19, 2020, 10:01:02 PM
The Death of Cities
Quote
Today, about half of the world’s population lives in urban areas. There are 400 cities with more than a million people. Roughly 80 percent of Americans live in urban areas, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. What’s strange though, according to Gallup, is Americans don’t want to live in big cities. They want to live in rural areas.
 …
So to recap, less than 5% currently [Work From Home] but 80% want to. The truth is, we can’t all be coders, influencers, and YouTube stars. The world needs ditch diggers, too.

COVID has absolutely brought to light all of the pushes from living in a big city to the pulls of rural America. The longer the pandemic is still considered a threat, the more WFH will be adopted as the standard—while employers and employees begin recognizing the benefits. ...
https://www.330ramp.com/blog/2020/5/22/the-death-of-cities
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 20, 2020, 01:58:59 AM
5 Charts Illustrating U.S. Economic Trends Amid the Coronavirus Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/19/five-charts-illustrating-us-economic-trends-amid-coronavirus.html

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106621064-1594991220838-20200717seven_day_average_apple.png)

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106621067-1594991322561-20200717opentable_with_note.png)

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106621074-1594991469647-20200717_str.png)

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106621071-1594991389457-20200717_tsa.png)

(https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/106621076-1594991548330-20200717_mba.png)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 20, 2020, 02:06:35 PM
What Lies Ahead
https://jackrasmus.com/2020/07/17/what-lies-ahead/
Quote
The US economy at mid-year 2020 is at a critical juncture. What happens in the next three months will likely determine whether the current Great Recession 2.0 continues to follow a W-shape trajectory—or drifts over an economic precipice into an economic depression. With prompt and sufficient fiscal stimulus targeting US households, minimal political instability before the November 2020 elections, and no financial instability event, it may be contained. No worse than a prolonged W-shape recovery will occur. But should the fiscal stimulus be minimal (and poorly composed), should political instability grow significantly worse, and a major financial instability event erupt in the US (or globally), then it is highly likely a descent to a bona fide economic depression will occur.

The prognosis for a swift economic recovery is not all that positive. Multiple forces are at work that strongly suggest the early summer economic ‘rebound’ will prove temporary and that a further decline in jobs, consumption, investment, and the economy is on the horizon.

EDIT: Also in
https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/07/20/what-lies-ahead-2/
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 20, 2020, 04:36:33 PM
World Facing Bankruptcy Time Bomb: Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-world-bankruptcy.html

"COVID-19 is creating an insolvency time bomb," said the report by Euler Hermes, predicting a 35-percent cumulative jump in the number of companies that go bust between 2019 and 2021.

The firm, which provides insurance for trade deals, said this would be a record for its global insolvency index—and that about half of the countries worldwide would be setting new highs since the 2009 financial crisis

The biggest increase among the world's economic powerhouses will be in the United States, with a 57 percent jump in insolvencies in 2021 compared to 2019, before the coronavirus struck.

Bankruptcies are expected to soar by 45 percent in Brazil, 43 percent in Britain, and 41 percent in Spain.

China is forecast to see a 20 percent surge in bankruptcies.

In the United States, "the rapid spread of the virus is amplifying the trough in activity and generating a liquidity crisis for a larger set of companies", said the report.

"We do not expect the U-shaped recovery in the US to be sufficient to offset all the legacies of the crisis on financial metrics, nor to prevent the rise in insolvencies from continuing into 2021," it added.

"The larger the company filing for bankruptcy, the higher the risk of a domino effect," said the report.

Euler Hermes also warned of two scenarios in which bankruptcies could jump even higher. ...

https://www.eulerhermes.com/en_global/economic-research/insights/Calm-before-the-storm-Covid19-and-the-business-insolvency-time-bomb.html

Report (PDF): https://www.eulerhermes.com/content/dam/onemarketing/ehndbx/eulerhermes_com/en_gl/erd/publications/pdf/2020_07_16_InsolvencyTimeBomb.pdf
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 21, 2020, 02:10:53 PM
The Real Unemployment Rate is 21%--and Heading Higher
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-real-unemployment-rate-is-21-and.html
Quote
It is somewhat less than reassuring that the "official" unemployment rate of around 12% is roughly half of the "real-world" unemployment rate. As always in the wonderful world of statistics, especially politically potent ones, it depends on what you measure, what you don't measure / act as if it doesn't exist, and how you measure what you do measure.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 21, 2020, 04:08:07 PM
U.S.
Suze Orman: A perfect financial storm is brewing and it is worse than 2008
Quote
… The temporary moratorium on evictions from federal subsidized housing, which was granted in the CARES Act, lasts through July 24. Once those protections end, you can be evicted if you aren’t able to pay your rent.  … 20 million to 28 million people could be displaced from their homes between July and September.

That [$600 unemployment] subsidy is scheduled to end July 31, unless Congress extends it. For many states, due to their pay schedules, it ends by July 26.

Anyone holding a federal student loan was able to suspend their payments until October thanks to the CARES Act. If there is no extension, they’ll have to start paying their monthly bill again after Sept 30.


It all adds up to a picture that is far bleaker than 2008, Orman said.
“This is 50,000 times worse, in my opinion, because there’s no direction,” she said.
Plus, while the Great Recession was brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis, which then led to the near collapse of the financial system, this recession has been caused by a health crisis.
That’s led to businesses shutting down, either temporarily or permanently. Weekly jobless claims keep rising, with 1.3 million Americans filing for unemployment for the week ending July 11.
Thanks to social distancing, jobs that people turned to in 2008 to get by, like waitressing and driving cars, are not available...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/21/suze-orman-a-perfect-storm-is-brewing-and-it-is-worse-than-2008.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Alexander555 on July 21, 2020, 10:23:46 PM
The US will probably slowly recover for a part, after next winter. Thanks to that 600 usd a week. For the rest of the planet it will be a lot harder. Over here cinemas are closing down again. Not because they have to, because they are not profitable anymore. And now infections are on the rise again.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 23, 2020, 11:44:00 AM
More Than Half of Business Closures are Permanent
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/economics/more-than-half-of-business-closures-are-permanent
Quote
Overall, permanent closures have steadily increased since the peak of the pandemic with minor spikes in March, followed by May and June.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2020, 08:31:28 PM
U.S.:  Unemployment Claims Are Rising at the Worst Possible Time
Quote
For the first time in 16 weeks, unemployment is up. And that's bad news on multiple levels.
On July 23, the U.S. Department of Labor reported an uptick in unemployment claims, with 1.4 million Americans filing for first-time benefits. And while that news isn't shocking, it drives home the point that the quick economic recovery a lot of people may have hoped for is unlikely to happen. …
https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/23/unemployment-claims-are-rising-at-the-worst-possib.aspx

—-
The feared jumbo mortgage debacle is here — thanks to the coronavirus — and ready to pound the housing market
Quote
Jumbo mortgages are loans that are larger than the limits set for Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac or the FHA to guarantee or insure. During the craziest years of the housing bubble, 2004 through 2007, close to $3.1 trillion in jumbos was originated.  Most were offered with insanely easy terms, which helped precipitate the collapse that followed.

As housing markets plunged over the next five years, jumbo loans for home purchases all but dried up. Jumbo mortgage lending returned only gradually during the early years of the so-called housing recovery.   

All that changed starting in 2016.  Since then, jumbo mortgage lenders have tripped over each other to hand out huge loans to applicants.  Between 2016 and 2019, roughly $1.5 trillion of these jumbos were originated.  Cash-out refinancing also returned with a vengeance. Reversing the traditional approach, interest rates and underwriting standards for jumbos were actually lower than for conventional loans.  For these lenders, mortgages offered to high-income borrowers who could afford the monthly payments seemed the least risky of all. …
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-feared-jumbo-mortgage-debacle-is-here-thanks-to-the-coronavirus-and-ready-to-pound-the-housing-market-2020-07-22

——
Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon on US economic outlook: `We're in for a very bumpy ride'
Quote
•      Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon said Wednesday that the U.S. economy will be hampered by high unemployment and a plodding recovery because of the coronavirus pandemic.
•      “I think in the next couple of months you’ll see a tamping down of that acceleration, I think you’ll see poorer economic numbers,” Solomon said. “I think we’re in for a very, very bumpy ride.”
•      Over the long term, the U.S. will probably face slower growth, a weaker dollar and a huge debt related to paying for the crisis response, Solomon said. 

“Over the long term, the U.S. will probably face slower growth, a weaker dollar and a huge debt related to paying for the crisis response. He noted that policymakers were just starting to pull back from the approach necessitated by the previous crisis 10 years ago when the pandemic struck.
"I think it will take an awful long time to navigate our way out," he said. …
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/goldman-sachs-ceo-david-solomon-on-us-economic-outlook-were-in-for-a-very-bumpy-ride.html

—-
Market risks rising as US, China tensions escalate toward new cold war
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/22/as-superpowers-turn-their-backs-on-each-other-the-risk-for-markets-is-rising.html

—-
Agreement unlikely in U.K. and U.S. trade talks until after 2020 due to coronavirus
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/agreement-unlikely-in-uk-and-us-trade-talks-until-after-2020-due-to-coronavirus-2020-07-22
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2020, 09:55:53 PM
 ;D

Deodorant sales fall due to social distancing but locked down consumers send ice-cream sales soaring, says Unilever
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/deodorant-sales-fall-due-to-social-distancing-but-locked-down-consumers-send-ice-cream-sales-soaring-says-unilever-11595532255

Chocolate sales are also up:
Americans spent $3.7 billion on chocolate in the 17-week period that ended June 27, which is up 6.3% from the same window last year.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eating-chocolate-once-a-week-can-lower-your-risk-of-heart-disease-study-2020-07-23

Future sales trend: weight loss products? :o
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: glennbuck on July 26, 2020, 02:41:07 AM
There are practical reasons to believe that Normal is a fairyland to which we can never return. The virus has not gone away, and is likely to keep recurring in waves. But let’s focus on another question: if such a land existed, would we want to live there?

The polls consistently suggest we would not. A survey by BritainThinks a fortnight ago found that only 12% of people want life to be “exactly as it was before”. A poll at the end of June, commissioned by the nursery provider Bright Horizons, suggested that just 13% of people want to return to working as they did before the lockdown. A YouGov study in the same week revealed that only 6% of us want the same type of economy as we had before the pandemic. Another survey by the same pollsters in April showed only 9% of respondents wanted a return to “normal”. It’s rare to see such strong and consistent results on any major issue.

Last month, confined to our homes, we watched columns of smoke rising from the Arctic, where temperatures reached a highly abnormal 38C. Such apocalyptic imagery is becoming the backdrop to our lives. We scroll past images of fire consuming Australia, California, Brazil, Indonesia, inadvertently normalising them. In a brilliant essay at the beginning of this year, the author Mark O’Connell described this process as “the slow atrophying of our moral imaginations”. We are acclimatising ourselves to our existential crisis.

Just as there has never been a normal person, there has never been a normal time. Normality is a concept used to limit our moral imaginations. There is no normal to which we can return, or should wish to return. We live in abnormal times. They demand an abnormal response.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/21/greener-happier-world-politicians-boris-johnson-consumerism-planet
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 26, 2020, 03:04:14 PM
Europe’s Economy to Outpace U.S. in Upending of Past Roles
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-07-26/europe-s-economy-set-to-outpace-u-s-in-upending-of-past-roles

... America’s failure to get a grip on the pandemic is putting the brakes on its rebound compared with Europe, where many former virus hot spots managed to resume economic activity without causing a similar surge in infections

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i.iD338ggSJs/v0/740x-1.png)
EU ~ 80%, US, UK, Sweden ~ 60%

Crucial for a sustainable recovery is confidence that the virus is no longer out of control, and Europe’s relative success may help encourage shoppers to spend and businesses to invest, further propelling demand and growth. The region has also done a better job of protecting jobs and incomes, at least for now, with furlough programs keeping millions of workers on payrolls.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i3SNIwozxdBM/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/740x-1.png)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: dnem on July 26, 2020, 03:18:38 PM
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that global output will never exceed 2019 levels. The long-lasting effects of the pandemic, layered with increasing climate costs, the ongoing demographic transition in the high consumption countries and a general growing awareness of the multiple sustainability crises afflicting humanity will all conspire to reduce worldwide output. This is hardly an unmitigated negative; we need to rein in global production/consumption dramatically to have a prayer.

I'm not especially confident of this prediction and we may be able to crank up the machine for one last go that exceeds 2019 levels for a few years to a decade or so, but after that the human endeavor will be on a downward trajectory. Also, the twisted way that we calculate GDP, that counts all sorts of things that don't reflect human prospering, will result in a lot of spending that is really about mopping up human suffering, not advancing health and welfare.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2020, 01:42:43 PM
“Work from home” means fewer business suits.

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Men's Wearhouse owner Tailored Brands says it's likely to go bankrupt in the third quarter
Article: https://t.co/0MhjbvN63V


https://twitter.com/business/status/1287891281314799617
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2020, 01:52:31 PM
New NASA Research Projects Probe COVID-19 Impacts
Quote
The COVID-19 pandemic has touched most aspects of human life. In recent months, NASA has initiated research projects focused on how the human response to the pandemic has affected our environment, like how air quality has improved in the wake of reduced vehicular traffic in many places. But the tentacles of the pandemic extend well beyond that.

How have production disruptions affected agriculture and food supply? What about our ability to forecast water availability in coming months? How do changes in activity levels affect environmental conditions?

Food Supply Monitoring ...

Preserving Water Supply Forecasts With Remote Sensing
In the semiarid western U.S., farmers and water resource managers rely on water supply forecasts both to ensure there is enough water to meet demand and to make the most efficient use of the water available.

The primary variable in these forecasts is what's called snow water equivalent, which is the amount of water contained in the snow that accumulates and compacts over the winter. In spring and summer, snowmelt becomes a significant freshwater source. Each month, surveyors take manual measurements of snow water equivalent at hundreds of monitoring stations across the region.

But what happens when a global pandemic limits the surveyors' ability to travel and take these measurements?

"As the pandemic evolved, we quickly discovered that the ground-based data that water resource managers have historically relied on for their decision making is potentially not going to be as readily available as it was in the past, because it requires people in trucks or in helicopters going out into the field to make these measurements," said University of Colorado scientist Noah Molotch. "Our project will leverage remotely-sensed snow data to fill these data gaps."

In doing so, Molotch and his colleagues hope to minimize disruptions to the water supply forecasts on which so many water and agricultural professionals rely.

Activity Mapping: Slowing Down and Speeding Up
[Satellite] data can show changes to Earth's surface over time. In this case, the scientists are looking at things like how the concentration and arrangement of cars in parking lots and on highways has changed from pre-pandemic patterns as well as changes to construction sites. ...
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/new-nasa-research-projects-probe-covid-19-impacts
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2020, 05:23:02 PM
Why U.S. unemployment system is broken: 'It really is an experiment out of control'
Quote
The unemployment system is fraying.
Unemployment benefits are less generous than in decades past, in key metrics like duration, amount paid and the share of unemployed who receive aid.

The aggregate result is less money going to fewer people for a shorter amount of time.

This dynamic is playing out during an unemployment crisis fueled by the coronavirus pandemic, when nearly 32 million people are collecting jobless benefits.
...

After the Great Recession, when states depleted their unemployment insurance trust funds to pay benefits, some states decided to cut back on jobless aid instead of raising taxes to refill their coffers, Wandner said.

Of course, as is the case now, the federal government can offer more relief during recessions. Lawmakers boosted aid by $600 a week, expanded the pool of workers eligible for benefits and extended pay by 13 weeks.

But these are just temporary stopgaps. The $600 payments ended over the weekend. Lawmakers are struggling to figure out whether to extend or replace them. Eligibility and duration expansions will be cut off at the end of the year.

Taken together, the unemployment system isn't equipped to handle a recession of this severity, Wandner said.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/28/why-experts-say-the-unemployment-system-is-broken.html
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: glennbuck on July 30, 2020, 02:04:25 PM
The links between climate change and pandemics are also becoming clearer. As humans increasingly encroach on wildlife habitats, they are coming into more frequent contact with bats and other zoonotic disease vectors. And there is growing concern that as the Siberian permafrost melts, long-frozen deadly viruses will resurface and quickly spread around the world as Covid-19 did.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/30/covid-19-has-shaken-global-economy-but-other-white-swan-threats-remain?fbclid=IwAR3PHK9BZMTRnqGDF0V0x4nWj1Z-07Ti-GPWoKm7dVurgmOBtepnCWgGRa0
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: blumenkraft on July 30, 2020, 06:27:41 PM
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: glennbuck on July 30, 2020, 07:43:24 PM
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.

OMG falls off chair, the bank of England was saying awhile ago UK in for the worst recession since 1706. None of us have lived through a Pandemic and great depression before, i think many people do not understand what is going to happen over the next few years, it is a ship show.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: bbr2315 on July 30, 2020, 08:03:14 PM
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
If by Trump economy you mean the depression was caused by Democratic Governors, then yes, it is the Trump economy.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: vox_mundi on July 30, 2020, 08:16:19 PM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/238189.jpg)
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: gerontocrat on July 30, 2020, 09:03:07 PM
And will a (the?) long-term consequence of Covid-19 be that these 4 organisations & their masters will rule over us entirely from the cradle to the grave? Or do they already?

four tech CEOs
– Tim Cook of Apple,
- Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook,
- Sundar Pichai of Google, and
- Jeff Bezos of Amazon

Quote
“Our founders would not bow before a king, we should not bow before the emperors of the online economy.”

Quote
Louis Brandeis, said, “We can have democracy in this country, or we can have great wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, but we can’t have both.”

Quote
I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country. - Thomas Jefferson

I'm from the UK. But what happens in the USA doesn't stay in the USA.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/30/congress-forced-silicon-valley-to-answer-for-its-misdeeds-it-was-a-glorious-sight
Congress forced Silicon Valley to answer for its misdeeds. It was a glorious sight
Matt Stoller

The five and a half hour long hearing on Capitol Hill offered a stunning illustration of the extent of misdeeds by big tech

Quote
Congresswoman Lucy McBath played audio of a seller on Amazon tearfully describing how her business and livelihood was arbitrarily destroyed by Amazon restricting sales of their product, for no reason the seller could discern. Bezos acted surprised, as he often did. Representative Jamie Raskin presented an email from Bezos saying about one acquisition that: “We’re buying market position not technology.” Bezos then admitted Amazon buys companies purely because of their “market position”, demonstrating that many of hundreds of acquisitions these tech companies have made were probably illegal.

Mark Zuckerberg had to confront his own emails in which he noted that Facebook’s purchase of Instagram was done to buy out a competitor. His response was that he didn’t remember, but that he imagined he was probably joking when he wrote that. One congresswoman on Joe Biden’s vice-presidential shortlist, Val Demings, asked Zuckerberg why he restricted Facebook’s tools for competitors like Pinterest, but not for non-competitors like Netflix. He had no answer. Congressman David Cicilline asked about Facebook promoting incendiary speech and making money off advertising sold next to that speech. Zuckerberg pivoted to free speech talking points, and Cicilline cut him off, “This isn’t a speech issue, it’s about your business model.”

Big tech’s dominance has serious consequences. America has lost thousands of media outlets because of the concentration of ad revenue in the hands of Google and Facebook; two-thirds of American counties now have no daily newspaper. The nation lost 100,000 independent businesses from 2000 to 2015, a drop of 40%, many due to Amazon’s exploitation of legal advantages from the avoidance of sales tax to its apparent violation of antitrust laws in underpricing rivals. Hundreds of thousands of merchants now depend on Amazon’s platform to sell goods, and Amazon has systemically hiked fees on them. Just a few years ago these third-party merchants paid 19% of their revenue to Amazon, now it’s up to 30%, which is, coincidentally, the amount Apple demands from hundreds of thousands of app makers who have to reach iPhone users. It’s no secret why small business formation has collapsed since the last financial crisis; these giant platforms tax innovation.

And then there’s the fear. I have reported on small and medium-sized businesses frightened to come forward with stories of how they are abused by counterfeiting or unfair fees by the goliaths. As one told me about his relationship to Amazon, “I’m a hostage.”

Fortunately, the voices of small businesspeople afraid of retaliation came through their elected leaders. “I pay 20% of my income to Uncle Sam in taxes, and 30% to Apple,” one member of Congress noted she heard from businesspeople. Representative Ken Buck, Republican from Colorado, talked about one of the few courageous businesspeople who testified openly months ago, the founder of PopSockets, who had been forced to pay $2m to Amazon just to get Amazon to stop allowing counterfeits of its items sold on the platform. Another Republican representative, Kelly Armstrong, went into the details of Google’s use of tracking to disadvantage its competitors in advertising, joined by Democrat Pramila Jayapal, who asked Google’s CEO why the corporation kept directing ad revenue to its own network of properties instead of sending ad traffic to the best available result.

antitrust enforcers for the last 15 years, stretching back to the Bush and Obama administrations, bear massive culpability for the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of these corporations. The emails and information that Congress dug up were available to these enforcers, who nonetheless approved merger after merger, and refused to bring complaints against anti-competitive behavior.
Title: Re: Global recession, supply issues and other COVID-19 consequences
Post by: Rodius on July 31, 2020, 08:08:56 AM
U.S. Economy Drops 32.9% In Worst GDP Report Ever

Link >> https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/30/896714437/3-months-of-hell-u-s-economys-worst-quarter-ever

This is the Trump economy, Ladies and Gentlemen.
If by Trump economy you mean the depression was caused by Democratic Governors, then yes, it is the Trump economy.