Has anyone notices that there is a large "valley" in the Fram strait in the DMI thickness map? If that's accurate then the ice near the pole could be unusually weak this year.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolarportal.dk%2Ffileadmin%2Fpolarportal%2Fsea%2FCICE_map_thick_LA_EN_20200311.png&hash=4275cdc06117ae13f3c3ab398376d7c6)
Congrats, Stephan! :)
2012 was higher BTW and had a later maximum than in 2020.
Will possible aerosol reduction from covid-19 economic decline affect this year’s minimum?
Will possible aerosol reduction from covid-19 economic decline affect this year’s minimum?
I wouldn't be surprised if it causes an increase. The lack of soot in the air will give the ice higher albedo, especially in the upcoming freezing season. [sarcasm]Time to start the 2020/2021 freezing thread?[/sarcasm] This may cause the ice to be much more resilient, especially next year, and could delay the eventual BOE. Also, look at where the temperature increase caused by removing aerosols is coming from: it's increasing the effective power of the sun by unblocking light instead of decreasing the amount of heat escaping from Earth like the usual greenhouse effect. This probably means all the additional heat is going to end up at the equator (which sea ice doesn't care about), not the poles.
The studies after 9/11found that contrails decreased daytime temps and increased night time temps. When contrails are reduced (like right now) the daytime temps rise more then night time temps decrease. This is because it matters when the contrails form. Because most flying is during the day the daytime temps are suppressed more by the cloud formation. So the current flying situation will provide more data to the weather scientists.I wanted to point you to the Black Carbon thread, but that doesn't exist yet?
Somewhat related I believe “smog” from China and India (among the biggest producers of SO2) also reduces incoming solar radiation. So if we are in a six month world wide recession is it not possible we will see one of the hottest years on record without an El Niño?
On the other hand oil is really cheap now...
I’d really like some of the professional weather experts to comment on this if they have time.
In climatology, black carbon is a climate forcing agent. Black carbon warms the Earth by absorbing sunlight and heating the atmosphere and by reducing albedo when deposited on snow and ice (direct effects) and indirectly by interaction with clouds, with the total forcing of 1.1 W/m2.[2] Black carbon stays in the atmosphere for only several days to weeks, whereas carbon dioxide (CO
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_carbon
Direct effect Black carbon particles directly absorb sunlight and reduce the planetary albedo when suspended in the atmosphere.
Semi-direct effect Black carbon absorb incoming solar radiation, perturb the temperature structure of the atmosphere, and influence cloud cover. They may either increase or decrease cloud cover under different conditions.[66]
Snow/ice albedo effect When deposited on high albedo surfaces like ice and snow, black carbon particles reduce the total surface albedo available to reflect solar energy back into space. Small initial snow albedo reduction may have a large forcing because of a positive feedback: Reduced snow albedo would increase surface temperature. The increased surface temperature would decrease the snow cover and further decrease surface albedo.[67]
Indirect effect Black carbon may also indirectly cause changes in the absorption or reflection of solar radiation through changes in the properties and behavior of clouds. Research scheduled for publication in 2013 shows black carbon plays a role second only to carbon dioxide in climate change. Effects are complex, resulting from a variety of factors, but due to the short life of black carbon in the atmosphere, about a week as compared to carbon dioxide which last centuries, control of black carbon offers possible opportunities for slowing, or even reversing, climate change.[67][68][69]
Radiative forcing
Estimates of black carbon's globally averaged direct radiative forcing vary from the IPCC’s estimate of + 0.34 watts per square meter (W/m2) ± 0.25,[70] to a more recent estimate by V. Ramanathan and G. Carmichael of 0.9 W/m2.[71]
The IPCC also estimated the globally averaged snow albedo effect of black carbon at +0.1 ± 0.1 W/m2.
Based on the IPCC estimate, it would be reasonable to conclude that the combined direct and indirect snow albedo effects for black carbon rank it as the third largest contributor to globally averaged positive radiative forcing since the pre-industrial period. In comparison, the more recent direct radiative forcing estimate by Ramanathan and Carmichael [71] would lead one to conclude that black carbon has contributed the second largest globally averaged radiative forcing after carbon dioxide (CO2), and that the radiative forcing of black carbon is “as much as 55% of the CO2 forcing and is larger than the forcing due to the other greenhouse gasses (GHGs) such as CH4, CFCs, N2O, or tropospheric ozone.”
This theory of yours is peculiar. So lack of aerosols caused by depressed economic activity will lead to a small cooling?Will possible aerosol reduction from covid-19 economic decline affect this year’s minimum?
I wouldn't be surprised if it causes an increase. The lack of soot in the air will give the ice higher albedo, especially in the upcoming freezing season. [sarcasm]Time to start the 2020/2021 freezing thread?[/sarcasm] This may cause the ice to be much more resilient, especially next year, and could delay the eventual BOE.
Also, look at where the temperature increase caused by removing aerosols is coming from: it's increasing the effective power of the sun by unblocking light instead of decreasing the amount of heat escaping from Earth like the usual greenhouse effect. This probably means all the additional heat is going to end up at the equator (which sea ice doesn't care about), not the poles.
If i interpret the weather correctly, the Fram export could be rampant in the upcoming days.
Counter intuitive and I think possibly counter factual as well.Will possible aerosol reduction from covid-19 economic decline affect this year’s minimum?
I wouldn't be surprised if it causes an increase.
<snip>
Also big... assuming it does reduce consumption, will be a reduction in SO2, which we know produces an increase at energy arriving at sea level.
PA, no precedent.
But, previous estimates were that prior to the first BOE in the Arctic, the Greenland Sea ice extent would hit one million square kms.
Let's see if we get there this year...
Snow is disappearing rapidly...
https://go.nasa.gov/38RadpN
What previous estimates?
Perhaps not the area at the link, but there is indeed less snow at the European side. This is taken from Nico Sun's website. Red areas on the map means less snow.
Binntho:
QuoteWhat previous estimates?
That would be my own estimates in a debate some years ago with a fellow discussant on this site.
You have yourself delivered a splendid example of a record year (1947) when the Greenland sea in April was nearly full of Arctic sea ice: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/rediscover/datalist/phpFileTree/dmi_sea_ice_maps/1947/1947.pdf
(since Nares Strait is not delivering nearly enough at this time of year
and unlikely to influence temperatures there
Easy to scroll between the years for comparison.True. I keep forgetting that.
Binntho,
Please try to goggle "1947 record-breaking" and see what comes up. Europe was record-warm mainly during the summer and North America had record-Breaking snowfall in December. Many more 1947 records were beaten during the last few years, so maybe the Arctic was weird too, although few measurements were taken just after WW II.
Correct. SO2 in the atmosphere reduces incoming insolation. Reduce it, and you get a small uptick in insolation reaching the surface.Also big... assuming it does reduce consumption, will be a reduction in SO2, which we know produces an increase at energy arriving at sea level.
So I assume you are saying that a decrease in SO2 causes an increase in energy reaching the surface? My first reading of this sentence implied the opposite ...
Correct. SO2 in the atmosphere reduces incoming insolation. Reduce it, and you get a small uptick in insolation reaching the surface.Also big... assuming it does reduce consumption, will be a reduction in SO2, which we know produces an increase at energy arriving at sea level.
So I assume you are saying that a decrease in SO2 causes an increase in energy reaching the surface? My first reading of this sentence implied the opposite ...
Let's not forget that if global land temps go down 1 C that is oftentimes 2-3 C for NH mid and high-latitudes plus cold outbreaks with late frosts that can kill any plants
This was all caused by a decrease of average global temperatures of 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1.3 °F), and a decrease of average land temperature by about 1C.
Let's not forget that if global land temps go down 1 C that is oftentimes 2-3 C for NH mid and high-latitudes plus cold outbreaks with late frosts that can kill any plants
Let's not forget that if global land temps go down 1 C that is oftentimes 2-3 C for NH mid and high-latitudes plus cold outbreaks with late frosts that can kill any plants
Well, it's a good job the temperatures are going the other way then, right?
Putin says good, at least Russians will have to buy fewer fur-coats...
Lets keep to the ice...plenty of threads to talk politics in the subforums.
Kaleschke SIC leads (https://twitter.com/seaice_de/status/1221805753050320896), Fram funnel, mar10-21.
Worldview Terra Modis , Svalbard-FJL gap, mar10-20 https://go.nasa.gov/3bcw5O7 (https://go.nasa.gov/3bcw5O7)
click to run
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
On March 6th NSIDC sea ice area was 471k above the 2010s average. 16 days later and the same measure is 23k below its 2010s average.
<snip>
* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
During the cold dark Arctic night one must have some fun to keep one's sanity. Besides, the four B's thing absurdly helps me to recall the names more easily.I like it :)
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic. That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic. That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.
Sea 3BO?* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
Why not just call it very bad BBBO?
An overview of sea ice movement as seen by ascat (https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2020083.sir.gif), jan1-mar23Thanks for this uniquorn. A most important animation.
The amsr2 low concentration area in/around the Beaufort correlates quite well with the darker area on ascat but may also be related to the recent heavy cloud cover.
Re Bremen image and Beaufort.
It didn't look so bad on the 19th compared to 22nd.
I wonder is it sensor related or is that Beaufort thinning real ?
Sea 3BO?* It's a lie: Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
Why not just call it very bad BBBO?
March 24th, 2020:Damn!
13,824,816 km2, the 1st century drop of the melting season: -119,374 km2.
2020 changed from 10th to 4th lowest on record. :o
Baffin, Barents, Bering and (B)Okhotsk.
That said, this drop highlights how the change in the quality of the ice is changing how the melt season progresses.
It is less about extent and area.
It is more about age, thickness and volume.
Most of the ice that's appeared this year in the Barents and Bering above and beyond what wasn't there the last few years is barely coherent, and doesn't have any ability to resist weather.
It will likely vanish like morning mist on a hot spring day.
... I also don't like all the yellow I'm seeing in this graphic. That concentration is a lot lower than I'd like.
Re Bremen image and Beaufort.
It didn't look so bad on the 19th compared to 22nd.
I wonder is it sensor related or is that Beaufort thinning real ?
abstract only unless you have paywall access
I suspect that it is due to heavy cloud cover and/or other atmospheric conditions at this time of year.
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006
Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006
Strong man tearing apart the phone book.
Heh. Everyone still get that reference?
That was too funny... ;D Reminds of that video of a small child that was wondering how you could text with an old school rotary dial phone.Weird situation in the Bering strait in the coming days, where the wind will blow north and south, most likely splitting the ice.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/03/29/0000Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2006
Strong man tearing apart the phone book.
Heh. Everyone still get that reference?
I asked my 11 year old if he knew what a phone book was. He said, "Yeah, those books with phone numbers that were used in the olden days."
Not that there is anything unusual about this situation, Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg254996.html#msg254996)
Looking at the Wipneus graphVolume is similar, area is higher = thickness is lower.
This is maybe confirmed by the Greenland Sea sea ice area graph<>
March 28th, 2020:
13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
2020 is now the lowest on record. :P
March 28th, 2020:
13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
2020 is now the lowest on record. :P
Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final
March 28th, 2020:
13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
2020 is now the lowest on record. :P
Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final
thank you
do you sleep?
March 28th, 2020:
13,559,443 km2, a drop of -19,954 km2.
2020 is now the lowest on record. :P
Greatest comeback since the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final
But not as great as the 1999 UEFA Champions League final. You would need a BOE for that ! :)
An overview of sea ice movement as seen by ascat (https://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2020083.sir.gif), jan1-mar23
The amsr2 low concentration area in/around the Beaufort correlates quite well with the darker area on ascat but may also be related to the recent heavy cloud cover.
We all know low arctic sea ice area will weaken the North Atlantic current.
The large sea ice area in Atlantic Ocean will accelerate the ocean current exchange because more salinity and cold temperature. The momentum of ocean current will be helpful in melting the summer arctic sea ice. Together with the high pressure and temperature in mid latitude will help to form cyclones in North Atlantic arctic region. All these will push more ice from CAB to Barrent Sea and Greenland Sea which will amplify the AMOC current.
"Fram export is not in any way different this winter from other winters, judging by Wipneus' charts." Concerning Wipneus' charts. The Info that he provides is of immense value, however, a visual comparison between this year and last shows quite a difference.
last couple of months have seen slightly more voluminous export
nothing out of the ordinaryOne thing that is different, or that I haven't seen before, is the large leads that have developed since feb15 making their way around north greenland so early in the season. With >80km/h winds (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/01/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-57.41,88.78,1309/loc=-23.606,83.575) forecast on apr1 we are likely to see them open up more.
One thing that is different, or that I haven't seen before, is the large leads that have developed since feb15 making their way around north greenland so early in the season. With >80km/h winds (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/01/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-57.41,88.78,1309/loc=-23.606,83.575) forecast on apr1 we are likely to see them open up more.Anybody else with historical perspective on how unusual it is for (what I think should thick) ice just north of Greenland to be fractured this early in the season? Seems very strange and significant to me, but I don't have the years of observation to compare it to.
Kaleschke SIC leads, oct1-mar29
historical perspectiveIt's difficult to compress a long time series into a small enough file size so this is 6.5MB for ascat fram export 2010-2020. The present episode doesn't look like the worst thing that has happened (yet).
Fram export will get another boost this week.
We're half-way between peak tides ...
Has anyone else noticed this odd protrusion between northern greenland and Svalbard island. It has been there for a while and it looks like it should just break off but it hasn't. Or is it normal?I expect normal. In past years, there would typically be a (much larger) bench of thicker, land-fast ice just to the south of that location, and it frequently was much larger.
Has anyone else noticed this odd protrusion between northern greenland and Svalbard island. It has been there for a while and it looks like it should just break off but it hasn't. Or is it normal?
Tidal effects (other than a smooth up-and-down motion) are strictly limited to the narrow coastal strip
I expect normal. In past years, there would typically be a (much larger) bench of thicker, land-fast ice just to the south of that location, and it frequently was much larger.
Tidal effects (other than a smooth up-and-down motion) are strictly limited to the narrow coastal strip
You were wrong about this the last X-times you stated it and you are wrong now again. You can't think ice movement without also taking tides into account.
Therefore, the tide movements are absolutely not off-topic in this thread.
Last time we talked about this i gave you multiple GIFs illustrating and proving my point. You all dismissed them without counterargument. So no, i will not do it again.
I have never seen anybody give any explanation for their strange fixation on tidal effects, so I will continue to claim that they do not exist.I used to go fishing with my dad in the north sea, with a zodiac. And I remember it like it was yesterday, that very first time we threw anker. It was amazing! The current was so powerful that it was like we were still driving the boat.
Researchers measure ozone levels by releasing weather balloons from observing stations around the Arctic (including the Polarstern icebreaker, which is frozen in sea ice for a year-long expedition). By late March, these balloons measured a 90% drop in ozone at an altitude of 18 kilometres, which is right in the heart of the ozone layer. Where the balloons would normally measure around 3.5 parts per million of ozone, they recorded only around 0.3 parts per million.
A gentle request to posters:Here's the thread:
Last time the tide subject was discussed in here, there were endless examples and posts all arguing against binntho's point. Which did nothing to convince him.
I suggest that binntho or some other good soul open a thread for the effect of tides on currents and sea ice, and let all the endless re-posts be done there.
Otherwise, I suggest to ignore the claim that tides do nothing. It will surely derail this thread.
Deleted Confidence interval posts. Will move to "When will Arctic Go Ice Free" later.Thanks, Glen.
hiyas,
this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged. But, as a response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?
I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.
td
Jim, why do you think it's off-topic?
hiyas,
this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged. But, as a response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?
I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.
td
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.
True, but the little that is left of the MYI is going down the drain together with that thin ice.Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.
Yes. I think that the first time that we will see a BOE, the ice exported will play an important role. I'm just questioning what is happening now. I am not expecting a big ice export number in March.Sometimes the images can be misleading. We can see that more ice is being export, at the same time that the ice volume export is not that high. Why? Because we are seeing more area moving, but with thinner ice than other years.True, but the little that is left of the MYI is going down the drain together with that thin ice.
Now, after watching oren's outstanding 10 yr movie of the Fram area (I dled it and i download little that I come across outside urls)many times, I noted that there appeared to be an export into the Barents Sea of a much more extreme volume of 'old' ice than any that occurred in 2010-11, '13, '14' and '17 (the years in which there was significant export visible).I agree, ice from the direction of the Pole moved farther this year than in other years. However, this was indeed uniquorn's animation, I am just a promoter of these movies.
binntho, there is a thread for that now. You might ignore the science there.You might try reading what people post!
<snip>
Not to mention, to my eye, I think this will either be a neutral, or very, very slight la nina year. <snip>
The convention is the wind direction is named for where the wind is coming from. But in the Arctic I am often confused.hiyas,
this may be OT and my apologies if it so judged. But, as a response regarding some FYI messages that I have received, for clarification, is the statement 'a north wind blows in a southerly direction through the Fram' correct? Likewise, doesn't a south wind blow in a northerly direction ?
I am a native English speaker, but i could be wrong.
td
A North Wind is a wind blowing from the North. Of course, anything going from North is going to the opposite direction of North, AKA South.
Around this time of year I usually take a screenshot of the ESRL Ice thickness assessment. Here are the years 2018, 2019 compared with forecast thickness 7th April 2020.
It does n't augur well for the coming summer.
....
Thanks for those comments Charles, HapHazard and El Cid.
I don't mind doing more when I can but I'm limited in that I havent taken that many screenshots from other years (unfortuantely).
Next one I have is May 1st 2018. So I could do a comparison this year with that one.
Just looking back at last year and the chart for 13th April 19 still showed a lot of pink - and we all know what happened after that.
This is what makes me all the more concerned this year, that we are only barely starting the melt season and condition is poor in many areas, especially the Russian side.
It will be interesting to see the next PIOMAS volume update to end of March. I imagine there won't be much of an increase on the mid-March and we are very near the volume max for the year,
Nullschool says there is water in the Beaufort, north of Yukon/Northwest Territories.
A dobson unit is the most basic measure used in ozone research.One Dobson Unit (DU) is defined to be 0.01 mm thickness at STP (standard temperature and pressure). Ozone layer thickness is expressed in terms of Dobson units, which measure what its physical thickness would be if compressed in the Earth's atmosphere. In those terms, it's very thin indeed. A normal range is 300 to 500 Dobson units, which translates to an eighth of an inch-basically two stacked pennies.
2012 was a shooting star - phut, & it was gone. 2016 was the steady burn that really matters.But there could be another shooting star in 202X. This will be at least as likely to be the first BOE as is a gradual drop down year by year.
There will be another (at least one) shooting star in 202X, including the first BOE year.Quote2012 was a shooting star - phut, & it was gone. 2016 was the steady burn that really matters.But there could be another shooting star in 202X. This will be at least as likely to be the first BOE as is a gradual drop down year by year.
I’ve applied a crude correction to the still problematic NRT data so that it at least coincides with the reanalysed data on March 14th. Whilst we await the reanalysed numbers for the rest of March and early April it looks as though Arctic sea ice volume reached at least a temporary peak on March 20th 2020.
it appears that even a moderately warm spring will cause widespread melt that will be more apparent in gerontocrat's and others' charts and graphs as the weeks pass maybe.
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
Methinks the US still isn't taking this seriously
Comparison of 2020 vs. 2019There was a lot of ice pushed into the barents sea this winter. That explains the larger extent there. But overall, that's actually a bad thing, because the barents will melt out anyway. The problem is that this is ice that's been taken from the CAP.
Persistent east winds have caused open water to appear in the eastern Hudson Bay. This is early in the season for break up.
I presume if winds turn west or northwest again this would close in ?
Is there any explanation why Baffin Sea Ice is so much thicker in average this year and 2019 in comparison with the 2000s or 2010s?
IIRC it's because the thin ice is removed. Let's say you have a set of 7 blocks of ice with thickness 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.2, 3.1. The average thickness here is 1.1 arbitrary units. Then, you have a nasty melt that takes 1 unit of thickness away from all the blocks. Now you only have 2 blocks (0.2, 2.1) with an average thickness of 1.15, as the other 5 blocks are gone.
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020. They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record. As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it. It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020. They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record. As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it. It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.
People like Beckwith want to go crazy every melting season
Paul Beckwith posted a video a couple days ago where he estimated BOE as 2023.We won’t likely have a BOE this year but what is the chance of us beating the 2012 record in 2020?
*Every* year going forward is a dice roll to beat 2020. They are slowly but steadily being stacked in favor of beating the record. As a SWAG, any given year right now I think has about a 1 in 3 chance of blowing by it. It should be 1 in 2 before we get to 2025, and I expect a BOE around or about 2030.
Apparently he thought a BOE could of happened in 2013 after 2012 big melt, certainly did not happen that way, let's see if he's right on this prediction in a few years time!
As for whether this year can beat 2012 then it's a possibility especially if holes start appearing in the middle of the ice pack during June like it did in 2012 and 2016.
I got a feeling the East Siberian Sea ice may melt out quickly like it did in 2017 given how little fast ice there is and the ice does look rather broken up and diffused.
I put Paul Beckwith in the same league as Peter Wadhams, Wieslaw Maslowski, and Jay Zwally.
Would it surprise you to discover that David Rose has misrepresented the “new study” that Al Gore referred to in 2007 as well, by some strange coincidence at around this time last year? I refer you to our article on that topic from September 15th 2013, and reiterate for the benefit of those who seem unable to understand either English or Mathematics that a “projection” is not the same thing as a “prediction”, and that Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s statement that “if this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by around 2013” is not at all the same thing as David Rose’s (mis)interpretation that “The Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2013”.
NSIDC Area Graphs.
Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.
Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.
In general, the peripheral seas don't matter much, especially those that are remote (Hudson, Okhotsk, St. L) or downstream prevailing currents out of the Arctic (Greenland Sea, Baffin Bay, partially Barents). However it's all a connected system and early disappearance of sea ice can have a cumulative albedo effect on NH weather. Besides, an early breakup and clearance in northern Baffin Bay, as shown in Aluminium's gif, can potentially lead to early damage to the Nares arch, as well as contribute to CAA breakup.NSIDC Area Graphs.
Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.
Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.
What is the significance of Baffin Bay for the larger picture?
I don´t think much so i am waiting for the other lines to change.
Paul Beckwith is a great wishful thinker.
NSIDC Area Graphs.
Attached are the graphs for...
- Total Area
- the 7 High Arctic Seas Area,
- the 7 Peripheral Seas Area.
As one can see in the High Arctic melt has not started.
Also attached is Baffin Bay Sea Ice Area - now 2nd lowest in the satellite record, and currently the Poster Child for the 2020 melt season.
What is the significance of Baffin Bay for the larger picture?
I don´t think much so i am waiting for the other lines to change.
Would I be right in thinking that there is plenty of open water visible on the Ny Ålesund webcam?
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-webcams/
Would I be right in thinking that there is plenty of open water visible on the Ny Ålesund webcam?
Paul Beckwith is a great wishful thinker.
I'm a wishful thinker too!
Could we possibly take the "alarmist"/"denialist" debate over to one of the Blue Ocean Event (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2800.msg244868.html#msg244868) threads, and get back to the 2020 melting season in here?
For the record I agree with Peter Wadhams (https://e360.yale.edu/features/as_arctic_ocean_ice_disappears_global_climate_impacts_intensify_wadhams) that "the planet is swiftly heading toward a largely ice-free Arctic in the warmer months".
A BOE prediction of his will be proved right one melting season in the not too distant future, but probably not this one. IMHO!
More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.That is air temperature.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.
Now that is a major misunderstanding. Even if we stopped emittin all Co2 today, warming would continue for at least decades as Co2 stays in the atmosphere for quite long:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/12/common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/
Yes I know. Spring in the Laptev.More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.That is air temperature.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
...about 20 percent of that CO2 would remain for at least tens of thousands of years.It will take nature millions of years to store all that carbon back into fossilized or crystalline form.
Once humans are diminished greatly, Earth's CO2 and pollution control mechanisms will kick in 10-fold, and ice-extent will grow.
We must evolve...in the real sense of the word.
Now that is a major misunderstanding. Even if we stopped emittin all Co2 today, warming would continue for at least decades as Co2 stays in the atmosphere for quite long:
https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2010/12/common-climate-misconceptions-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/
Now that is a major misunderstanding (to quote you). If humans are not polluting for some magical reason, the mechanisms of nature that pull CO2 and pollution from the air, land, and sea, kick-in,and are always 10 times more cleansing and restorative than scientists' expect.These are the scientific facts, but that discussion and scientific references are for another thread, which I have little interest in that discusion.
<You can't state as scientific fact that natural mechanisms are 10 times what scientists expect. This requires major justification, in another thread, should you wish to stick to it.>
Good moderating there Oren!
Oren may have a little more moderating to do. See comment #269 upthread.
Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.That is air temperature.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
That heat was actually very weirdly narrow and local. I guess that has to do with the mountains there and the Lena river valley that channels the wind? If you go through the different heights on Nullschool on that day, a lot of that heat comes in on the 850 hPa level, and then weirdly appeared on the Laptev at the surface level.Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.That is air temperature.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/04/09/2100Z/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-44.76,105.99,3000/loc=130.078,71.852
It also means top melt of the covering snow pack, potential formation of sub-snow cover melt ponding, and a general reduction in albedo.
It all adds up.
Good moderating there Oren!
I have the research for what I said.
Oren may have a little more moderating to do. See comment #269 upthread.
I thought that as well!
The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.
Thanks Oren.
I found Neven to be a down to earth, and generous person. I had my bad days here on the forum, and they still count... But Neven dealt with it respectfully! And I can only bow my head to such grace...Good moderating there Oren!
Neven has been overworked for years. I have always felt a deep debt of gratitude that he has spent so much of his life on this. There are a lot of people here who I respect a great deal. Oren is one of these people. Moderation can only improve with several persons like him/her here.
Ice drift map, Sunday to Saturday, 7 frames.That Ice in the Barents is gonna get a push-back in the coming days.
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
That heat was actually very weirdly narrow and local. I guess that has to do with the mountains there and the Lena river valley that channels the wind?Yes, but it means heat is flowing the wrong way, earlier than it should be (no freezing).More than 2°C yesterday in the laptev sea.That is air temperature.
Oren may have a little more moderating to do. See comment #269 upthread.
I thought that as well!
The "Skeptical Science style" of moderation has a lot to recommend it, if you have the time to do it well.
Thanks Oren.
Well that's why I find it weird that the scale only goes to 72 cm, when there are clearly places with a lot more snow than that. I understand that snow can get blown away, but 1 or 2 cm of snow is nothing. That's 1 hour or less of snow. Surely there must be more?I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Snow is rarely very thick in flat areas without tree cover. The wind tends to blow it away, but of course there can be very deep accumulations where an obstruction gives some shelter.
The very deepest even snow layer I ever saw was about 2 m, covering a flat valley floor perhaps 2 or 3 km wide. The surrounding mountains were mostsly windswept and bare, so averaging over the entire area would probably be well under 1m.
It might be adiabatic heating due to air compressing from being driven over and then down the opposite side of a mountain range.It looks like you can see another good example of adiabatic heating around Novaya Zemlya. That is so cool.
Warm weather enters into the Arctic.That's one *helluva* temperature gradient. I imagine weather's kind of unsettled a few hundred KM N of Svalbard.
Warm weather enters into the Arctic.
I'm hyper interested in witnessing what unfolds on Greenland's northern shoreline this year, but I really think that the crack that formed last year will become a new feature.
Almost warm enough to sunbathe on the Polarstern.
I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...
That's awesome. Thanks Glen! And thank you Dr. Sean Birkel for the work on Climate Reanalyzer. Happy I was able to find this bug. :)I don't get it. How can this scale be in cm? Shouldn't that be decimeter? 72 cm is less than a meter. 70 dm is 7m.
Not much snow in Siberia, is there? But I'm pretty sure that's more than 2 cm...
Dr. Sean Birkel (who singlehandedly conceived, built, and runs Climate Reanalyzer) sent me this reply about the legend on the snow depth map:
"The plotted units were inches, while the title showed cm. Found bug...now the plotted values are in cm set to a cm specific color scale."
Thus, before the correction the snow depth indicated was only 40% of the actual. Now corrected.
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor)
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor)
Perfect example of why those who think extent is the more important metric than volume are lost in abstract land. As thickness (volume) declines, the structural integrity of the ice declines. Rapid declines in extent occur only after the structural integrity of the ice has already been compromised. Until the structural integrity of ice is compromised declines in extent are minimal. We will see the Chukchi melt out rapidly this year because the ice is already compromised.
Also this doesnt look good https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-2221358.499810497,1162240.0000000005,-1238318.4998104968,1678848.0000000005&p=arctic&t=2020-04-13-T17%3A58%3A09Z&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor)
Yeah, quickly sifted through images of the same location over the last 10 years. The ice in the Chukchi is noticeably worse than previous years. ESS looks about the same over all, somewhat worse than average. The combination of them may be a portent, but we'll need to watch for more strong weather and/or melt ponds before we get too excited about it.
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in SiberiaThat we're gonna have another disastrous year for the ice is without question. The only unknown is the weather. If we get a lot of wind stirring up the ocean, mixing layers, coupled with a lot of export through fram and the garlic press, then we could see open water at the pole and more. But like I said, it'll all depend on the weather...
That we're gonna have another disastrous year for the ice is without question. The only unknown is the weather.....
well, the last 10/20 years have been disastrous compared to what was normal and this year won't be different I guess; How disastrous it will be, depends, among other things, on the weatherWhat Rick said Phoenix. We know what the long term trend is, and we can already see the bad shape the ice is in this year. So the only unknown now is the weather.
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
well, the last 10/20 years have been disastrous compared to what was normal and this year won't be different I guess; How disastrous it will be, depends, among other things, on the weatherWhat Rick said Phoenix. We know what the long term trend is, and we can already see the bad shape the ice is in this year. So the only unknown now is the weather.
April 10-16.Looking at this animation (thank you as usual Aluminium), I think the recent weather in the Barents is actually good for the ice. The worst that can happen in April, when temps are still far below and the sun mostly nonexistent, is not a couple of days of barely-melting temps, but the continued and sustained movement of ice from the Pole region to the Fram, which reduces the amount of thick 2m+ ice that can resist a whole melting season. Anything that halts or slows down this freight train is welcome news, IMHO.
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Close up Worldview image of Sept 8th 2016Thank you Niall.
Fram export will reduce but also polynyas are opening up in the CAB because of ice movement. From the weather forecast one can expect the polynyas won't refreeze but rather expand more
<snerk>Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.
Not exactly JD:
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/09/santa-extends-his-secret-summer-swimming-pool/
Probably for the first time in about 3 million years, yes.The open water may extend to the Pole in Siberian side in September if such pattern will continue. The Laptev/ESS ice is already thin + early surface melting and quick land snow retreat in Siberia
If that happens, would it be the first time the pole melts?
Possibly, although some have suggested that it may been as recently as 100,000 years ago.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2013GL057188
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
Others as recently as 6,000 years ago.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113004162?np=y
https://phys.org/news/2008-10-ice-arctic-ocean-years.html
I took a look at Bremen ice pictures for this date for many years and I have not seen so much light purple - maybe expect for 2007 April but then the weakness was in other zones. Now the Beaufort , the ESS and the Laptev seem very very weak. 2020, 2016 and 2007 shown.I don't see people using this website much, but I like it because IMHO the data matters less than the evolution of the data. Same data sets show trends, and this site's volume trend is showing a record minimum in volume.
I know it is totally weather dependent but I think we will see a record this year (so true)
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-171008,-991488,812032,-474880&p=arctic&i=1&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-171008,-991488,812032,-474880&p=arctic&i=1&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor)Not unusual, in 2018 there was much bigger crack and open water in February. But what is unusual is the gray surface of Greenland this year. I've checked last 10 years, it was always bright white
Look at this crack :o
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-171008,-991488,812032,-474880&p=arctic&i=1&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov/?v=-171008,-991488,812032,-474880&p=arctic&i=1&l=Graticule,Reference_Labels(hidden),Reference_Features(hidden),Coastlines,VIIRS_SNPP_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor(hidden),MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor)
Look at this crack :o
To what extent to we expect this pulse of 4-5C anomalies across the Eurasian side of the arctic over the next week to impact preconditioning (or pre-preconditioning)?I'm sure more senior posters will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the higher temperatures will only have an impact on the freezing of the ice. This "heatwave" basically ends the freezing season early.
If the snow on the ice melts because of heat and moisture and refreezes after that, the albedo drops significantly. It may cause early meltponding, futher albedo drop and volume loss much more than Fram exportThat makes sense Pavel, but wouldn't snow blow over it again and cover those albedo weaknesses?
For more senior posters: To what extent to we expect this pulse of anomalies, averaging 4-5 C above normal, across the Eurasian side of the arctic over the next week to impact preconditioning (or pre-preconditioning)? Is it too early to begin melt-pond formation in earnest? If so, would melting snow atop the ice still reduce albedo, even if re-frozen?
I'd also like to begin tracking meltpond formation more closely in the weeks ahead. Does anyone know of a good resource for quantifying this?
It's certainly too early to begin melt ponding in the Arctic Basin. And I can't recall any source that tracks melt ponding quantitatively, though looking at Worldview shows a telltale bluish color when melt ponding is widespread.
Temperatures are not yet high enough for surface melt. The primary effect here is to slow thickening of the ice in the region affected.If the snow on the ice melts because of heat and moisture and refreezes after that, the albedo drops significantly. It may cause early meltponding, futher albedo drop and volume loss much more than Fram exportThat makes sense Pavel, but wouldn't snow blow over it again and cover those albedo weaknesses?
with so much multi directional cracking deep in the CAB, can this impact on the occurrence of meltMostly its easy to forget the scale. small objects you see may be a kilometer or more across. so not really
ponding ?
April 10-16.
2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg195759.html#msg195759).
What is it about that particular piece of real estate that causes that crack to appear there first ?
What is it about that particular piece of real estate that causes that crack to appear there first ?
The ESS is a shallow sea. The fast ice stretches out several kms from the Russian coast and then separates from the main pack in the spring.
I havent checked back to see if the break off point is exactly same each year but probably something similar. This year it coincides quite close to the 25m depth line (isobath) looking at this bathymetry map.
Ozone.I prefer that this regular update be posted in a new thread, as it does not affect the current melting season as far as I can tell.
I'm trying to get some sense of the process which creates the crack. In that regard, I'm wondering if the fast ice is frozen all the way down to the sea floor? It's shallow there and a frozen continent in winter might have the means to freeze the water beneath.
This is just so terrible I started to cry, I knew Professor Sir John Houghton. He just passed away due to UK's terrible coronavirus epidemic.
:'( FAMOUS BRITISH SCIENTIST AND IPCC 2007 NOBEL PRIZE TAKER DIES OF CORONAVIRUS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52325374 :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
I'm trying to get some sense of the process which creates the crack. In that regard, I'm wondering if the fast ice is frozen all the way down to the sea floor? It's shallow there and a frozen continent in winter might have the means to freeze the water beneath.
It's not the ESS, but there is a nice schematic of the break up process over at Barrow (Utqiagvik) Alaska on this link.
https://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_breakup/
The fast ice there is supported by grounded pressure ridges. But some years the pressure ridges can be unreliable. I imagine it is something similar in ESS, only extended out further ?
And I can't recall any source that tracks melt ponding quantitatively, though looking at Worldview shows a telltale bluish color when melt ponding is widespread.Neven discussed visual estimates of melt pond prevalence on the ASI blog a few years ago. It seems like a tool was being developed but never really arrived.
Ice growth rates are not high enough to freeze all the way to the bottom. During a season new ice can reach maybe 2m, the thicker the ice the slower the growth. But ice floes being stood sideways due to pressure from the pack (and counterforce from the shore) can reach the bottom.
Pressure ridges are the thickest sea ice features and account for about one-half of the total sea ice volume. Stamukhi are pressure ridges that are grounded and that result from the interaction between fast ice and the drifting pack ice.
One of the largest pressure ridges on record had a sail extending 12 metres (39 ft) above the water surface, and a keel depth of 45 metres (148 ft). The total thickness for a multiyear ridge was reported to be 40 metres (130 ft). On average, total thickness ranges between 5 metres (16 ft) and 30 metres (98 ft), with a mean sail height that remains below 2 metres (6.6 ft).
It's useful to read the Wikipedia entry on Pressure Ridges, and another entry about Stamukha.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha)QuotePressure ridges are the thickest sea ice features and account for about one-half of the total sea ice volume. Stamukhi are pressure ridges that are grounded and that result from the interaction between fast ice and the drifting pack ice.QuoteOne of the largest pressure ridges on record had a sail extending 12 metres (39 ft) above the water surface, and a keel depth of 45 metres (148 ft). The total thickness for a multiyear ridge was reported to be 40 metres (130 ft). On average, total thickness ranges between 5 metres (16 ft) and 30 metres (98 ft), with a mean sail height that remains below 2 metres (6.6 ft).
To what extent to we expect this pulse of 4-5C anomalies across the Eurasian side of the arctic over the next week to impact preconditioning (or pre-preconditioning)?I'm sure more senior posters will correct me if I'm wrong, but I think the higher temperatures will only have an impact on the freezing of the ice. This "heatwave" basically ends the freezing season early.
Is there a mathematical formula that calculates the increase of ice volume with temperature?
How much possible volume do we lose with a 20°C temp anomaly? And how does that compare to fram export?
Oren - I see you are listed as Moderator and thus you decide "what goes where". However, consider that the ozone level animations are a kind of proxy for the polar stratospheric circulation, also that the stratospheric ozone in the polar vortex will increase rather dramatically at the onset of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Such events do have relevance in the melting season. For a simple example please see:Ozone.I prefer that this regular update be posted in a new thread, as it does not affect the current melting season as far as I can tell.
There is a formula that calculates the increase of thickness with temperature. Found at https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/fdd.1) I'm surprised that a formula based solely on temperature would be accurate.
1) I'm surprised that a formula based solely on temperature would be accurate.Thank you Glen! This link you posted provided an answer to my question how much possible volume we would lose with a 20°C temp anomaly. Probably not much, except for places with thin ice.
The chart from Thorndike 1975 shows that the thicker the ice the slower it grows.
See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg32166.html#msg32166 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg32166.html#msg32166)
Say you increased the length of the freeze season, you'd get only small increase in thermodynamic thickening because by 1.5m and above the rate of ice growth is small. This is because as the ice thickens it better insulates ocean (warmer) from the colder atmosphere. So for anything over 1.5m thickness, shorten the freeze season even by as much as a month and you get very little impact on thermodynamic thickness
Glen Koehler,Nico Sun quotes this formula in his webpage for FDD https://cryospherecomputing.tk/index.html
I think that the formula given by John_The_Elder in the previous post: "Thickness (cm) = 1.33 * FDD (°C)0.58", is relative to a starting situation without ice. If at the beginning there is already an ice thickness to use the formula you have to add to the FDD the value that gives the thickness already present (and the influence of the thickness in the formula is given by the exponent 0.58).
It's useful to read the Wikipedia entry on Pressure Ridges, and another entry about Stamukha.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_ridge_(ice))
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stamukha)QuotePressure ridges are the thickest sea ice features and account for about one-half of the total sea ice volume. Stamukhi are pressure ridges that are grounded and that result from the interaction between fast ice and the drifting pack ice.QuoteOne of the largest pressure ridges on record had a sail extending 12 metres (39 ft) above the water surface, and a keel depth of 45 metres (148 ft). The total thickness for a multiyear ridge was reported to be 40 metres (130 ft). On average, total thickness ranges between 5 metres (16 ft) and 30 metres (98 ft), with a mean sail height that remains below 2 metres (6.6 ft).
Interesting. stamukha (the grounded version of ridges) are most often found at depth of 20m which corresponds to Niall's depth chart above. Additionally, stamukha is a Russian word and the crack in question is found on the Russian coast.
So far, the shoe fits !!
So, a good working theory is that the repeating initial crack in the ESS is found at the 20m depth stamukha line.
If I were to imagine how the works in total, you have incoming warm Atlantic water entering the Arctic and Coriolis forces have it hugging the Siberian coast until it hits the stamukha wall and is forced toward the surface which is just a few meters above. Sound reasonable ?
Thanks for the wiki link Oren.
Edit: Alternative / complementary view is that the opening of this crack is also influenced heavily by wind. Looking at Aluminum's most recent post (#339) it seems like the crack was pretty wide a few days ago and then shut down with a change in wind direction.
Volume is not running at a near-record level. Hopefully this will pay off with higher resistance to melting.
Five day forecast Wind @ Surface not looking good for the Barents sea ice.
I agree, but it's not really that cold, and as you say, a lot of that ice will be pushed into warm water, where it will melt quickly.Five day forecast Wind @ Surface not looking good for the Barents sea ice.
In what sense ?
Temperatures will be low with strong north and northwest winds. We will likely see the ice edge extending south.
The ice will of course melt as it pushes further south towards Norway. But in the meantime I expect we will see Barents extent and area increase a bit.
After some melting, ice is getting darker.If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots? Or does that lowered albedo last through the season?
If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots?I think, yes, easily. However, some effects may last for a long time. Thinner snow cover and early access to warmth are not good for ice. Cold ice have margin of safety. You need to heat up it before melting.
When snow melts, it becomes more compact, and then refreezes. Air is taken out. So the insulating factor of the snow goes down, right? But you also get a harder icy surface that's more difficult to melt, no?If that melting occurs early in the season, wouldn't snow blowing over it again cover those spots?I think, yes, easily. However, some effects may last for a long time. Thinner snow cover and early access to warmth are not good for ice. Cold ice have margin of safety. You need to heat up it before melting.
I agree with all.
My interest is effect of current event. Will it be something notable?
My interest is effect of current event. Will it be something notable?
Until we see a jump towards record snow cover loss in May on land and in June on the ice we have no chance for a new record low.
And snow cover loss has stalled out.
Guess what...
Ice loss has stalled out.
I'm starting to think maybe the permafrost helps slow snow melt in high spring sun?
I don't know...
Thoughts???
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.
absent for a few months
Until we see a jump towards record snow cover loss in May on land and in June on the ice we have no chance for a new record low.Less permafrost I think and more a negative feedback from increased moisture being carried to high latitudes in winter.
And snow cover loss has stalled out.
Guess what...
Ice loss has stalled out.
I'm starting to think maybe the permafrost helps slow snow melt in high spring sun?
I don't know...
Thoughts???
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.
BBR, is that you?!
I think that heavy snow in the high latitudes is a developing new normal for the NH and this needs to be watched closely.
BBR, is that you?!
:)
I wanted to ask the same!!!
Western Siberia today 23.04 and the same day of year in 2019I can also see a lot of smoke already getting caught up in that southerly that's blowing into the arctic.
latest DMI thickness mapDo you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into the
Five day Forecast Wind + Temp @ Surface
latest DMI thickness mapDo you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into theCAPCAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.
As you well know, I'm just an amateur, but I think that the water that is entering from the pacific is mostly fresh melt water from the surrounding mountains. So I think that this water should stay on top of the colder fresh water that's already in the basin, no?latest DMI thickness mapDo you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into theCAPCAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.
i think it's pretty well established that there is already sufficient heat in the CAB to melt all of the CAB ice. The barrier is that the heat exists below the fresh water lens on the surface where the ice exists.
If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.
As you well know, I'm just an amateur, but I think that the water that is entering from the pacific is mostly fresh melt water from the surrounding mountains. So I think that this water should stay on top of the colder fresh water that's already in the basin, no?latest DMI thickness mapDo you see the blue in the Chukchi sea? I think that's hot pacific water that will be penetrating deep into theCAPCAB this year. As I wrote here before, I believe that the slowdown of the AMOC is causing more pacific water to enter the arctic ocean. That water is also hotter now, so you get a double whammy. And strike three is this missing arm of thick ice that should be protecting the CAB. But that arm is also missing this season.
i think it's pretty well established that there is already sufficient heat in the CAB to melt all of the CAB ice. The barrier is that the heat exists below the fresh water lens on the surface where the ice exists.
If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.
Edit: Unicorn posted an excellent graphic of the salinity on the Pacific side.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg260835.html#msg260835
Uniqourn's video is demonstrating the accumulation of fresh water in the Beaufort Gyre.You're going way off topic. I was referring to that video because it shows 2 impulses of salt water entering the gyre from the pacific side, right around the time when freezing starts. So I think that's salt water from the pacific that's entering the Chukchi sea when the melting - and thus the supply of fresh water - ends.
That animation is a model of salinity (http://bulletin.mercator-ocean.fr/en/permalink/PSY4/animation/3/20191101/20200122/2/1) at 318m depth. A pulse of increased salinity of that size is likely to come from denser, higher salinity water below.Thanks for Uniquorn. I had noticed the depth, and that's why I wasn't entirely sure if it could come from the Bering strait.
avoid quoting long nested quotes unless absolutely necessary.
Anyway... this is way out of my league...
The important thing is that you learned something in the process and I'll bet a few lurkers learned something as well. I certainly learned something. It's not a sin to put forth possibilities that are eventually debunked. It's an essential element of the learning process.
If one wants to make the case that incremental Pacific intrusion into the CAB will make a big dent in the CAB ice, they should consider how that heat gets to the surface of the CAB.
The halocline stratification strongly inhibits vertical heat fluxes from these warm layers.
However, the fate of sea ice is acutely sensitive to changes in ocean heat flux of as little as 1 W m−2
Back to the science :)
For starters how about Timmermans et al. (2018)?
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773 (https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/8/eaat6773)
It remains a possibility that some of the NCS warming could be attributed to increased heat flux through the Bering Strait (18) [warm inflows through the Bering Strait have, at least, been shown to be essential in initiating the positive ice-albedo feedback (19)]. Uncertainties in the past decades’ record of heat influx through the Bering Strait (particularly the lack of measurements in the top 20 m) preclude us from ruling this out.
In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.
It looks like the DMI volume may have passed the season maximum.
<snip>
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.
We're losing a lot of ice in the Bering sea as well it seems...... and even at that, the Bering is better off at this time than it has been for several years.
Early melt ponds and open water significantly reduce regional albedo and increase heat capture during a time of rising insolation. If they are attacked early in the melt season, that will have serious implications for the CAB, as they buttress the main pack.I read on another thread that insolation starts to matter around 7 weeks before the summer solstice? And we're 8 weeks off now if I counted right? So this couldn't come at a worse time. That open water isn't going to refreeze all that much, will it?
Wipneus's data has us tracking along the 2010's average for most metrics. I'm wondering DMI is diverging from that?Every year the question of DMI volume comes up. The short answer is that it's less reliable than PIOMAS and Cryosat/SMOS. Specifically it seems to be missing the large volume buildup next to Svalbard and FJL, but I haven't made a scientific comparison.
Is it just me or there are darker areas in Nares Strait? Looks like we will see opening of Nares really soon.
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.I join the tanks to grixm for the graph; much appreciated, and definitely timely per concerns further in this post.
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.
3. As a result, right now (as well as progressively stronger during last couple months as the situation develops) - significantly less sunlight gets "caught" by aerosols before it reaches surface, which means less of cyclones (direct consequence of comparatively less heat content in the air), so more shiny days on average scale, and faster
Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.
3. As a result, right now (as well as progressively stronger during last couple months as the situation develops) - significantly less sunlight gets "caught" by aerosols before it reaches surface, which means less of cyclones (direct consequence of comparatively less heat content in the air), so more shiny days on average scale, and faster
Do you have any stats to back up this ? Re cyclones.
This is actually the most alarming graph I've seen in a while.
Wipneus's data has us tracking along the 2010's average for most metrics. I'm wondering why this one is diverging from that?
With another week's worth of reanalysed data now processed, it now seems certain that the CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic sea ice volume maximum was 18469 km³ on April 6th
Is it just me or there are darker areas in Nares Strait? Looks like we will see opening of Nares really soon.
(https://i.imgur.com/EHbzD6X.png)
Because it's crap, JD, after so many years you should know better. ;)It looks like the DMI volume may have passed the season maximum.
<snip>Thank you for the chart grixm. It's worrying to see this year leading in that metric. Though it does appear that recent years bunch together come summer.
This is actually the most alarming graph I've seen in a while.
Wipneus's data has us tracking along the 2010's average for most metrics. I'm wondering why this one is diverging from that?
...I don't, but i did not look for, either. Was just general consideration, which i think is quite obvious: when it's some 10%...15% of sunlight normally much absorved by aerosols, "normally" means with recent-years-typical amount of fuel burning by mankind, - we'll have that much more heat mostly added to troposphere, and cyclones are driven by athmospheric heat. Substract from it, and less "of" cyclones will be around: less number as well as less intensity.
Do you have any stats to back up this ? Re cyclones.
Considering the last year low September extent, the highest albedo warming potential and late start of refreeze I'm not surprised the current volume is one of the lowest or even the lowest on record. Yes, it was cold north of 80 latitude but much of that ice has been exporeted through the Fram strait.
Good news is the weather forecasts don't promise extreme melting events in the CAB, but the land snow will melt quickly in some places
It had turned gray after a strong cyclone in early April. The north of Greenland is also grayIs it just me or there are darker areas in Nares Strait? Looks like we will see opening of Nares really soon.
(https://i.imgur.com/EHbzD6X.png)
Whether that's snow cover loss, or material deposition, this is very anomalous.
Wasn't there a recent wave above 0C?
...I don't, but i did not look for, either. Was just general consideration, which i think is quite obvious: when it's some 10%...15% of sunlight normally much absorved by aerosols, "normally" means with recent-years-typical amount of fuel burning by mankind, - we'll have that much more heat mostly added to troposphere, and cyclones are driven by athmospheric heat. Substract from it, and less "of" cyclones will be around: less number as well as less intensity.
Do you have any stats to back up this ? Re cyclones.
Important also: "less" means "less than would otherwise happen", and with ever-growing GHGs, the general trend is to _more_ of cyclones as years go by. So less aerosols will make it "less than would happen with both normal aerosol content and with normal GHG growth", which does not nesessarily mean "less than in recent years", since GHG growth is ongoing process.
It would surely be very interesting to see how many and how strong cyclones in the Arctic would end up happening, but obviously we're not yet at the point in time when this could be measured / quantified. This is a talk for the end of this melting season - about estimating cyclones' number, strength and effects on sea ice.
The above point about less aerosols present in the air remains game-changing despite the uncertainty about "absolute" number and strength of cyclones / cloudy days during this season, however, because higher actual insolation at the surface - i.e. few percent more sunlight reaching the ice directly, - will still produce greater melt "per sunny day" than in recent years. Especially with less jet contrails directly over the Arctic as per less jet liners crossing the Arctic back and forth, as was usual in exactly recent years. The effect is relatively small "directly", but multiplicated with further albedo feedback, of course - few percent faster melt produces few percent darker surfaces on average, which then add ever growing further extra melt into the picture.
April 20-25.
April 20-25.The circular movement pushing the ice away in Kara and Laptev and exporting ice into the Barents and the Fram is like the worst possible scenario for the ice at this time of year, especially as there is a significant volume concentration next to FJL and Svalbard and at the export staging area north of the Fram.
April 20-25.The ice in Kara and Eastern Barents Sea looks very vulnerable to me.
... consider that the ozone level animations are a kind of proxy for the polar stratospheric circulation, also that the stratospheric ozone in the polar vortex will increase rather dramatically at the onset of a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). Such events do have relevance in the melting season. For a simple example please see:
]https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html (https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html)
Actually it is a bit more complicated than the simple view expressed above, see:
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50651 (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jgrd.50651)
https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.11750 (https://arxiv.org/abs/1807.11750)
Thus, I think that the ozone measurement animations are relevant to melting, at least in the early part of the melting season.
comparison of NE greenland, apr24 or apr25, 2012-2020
https://go.nasa.gov/2S9iTlZ click to run
Beaufort (https://media.giphy.com/media/TFIdWDeBEFYoSVbk7W/giphy.gif) ice is shattered, won't hold a crack just spreads out, which implies it's very fluid.I think you look at the Beaufort more often than me so to check here is worldview terra modis ( https://go.nasa.gov/3cNr4MB) mar3-apr25, medium contrast to enhance the fine cracks. Ascat is inset to show overall movement, which isn't much. Obviously visible is a different view to compressive strength
April 20-25.Thanks as always Aluminium. One of the best synoptic views. Is there a scale to interpret what the different levels of gray to black shading tell us about the condition of the ice?
2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg196848.html#msg196848).
However it turns out to be, i bet next year this time we know way better how to quantify the masking effects. This is a science opportunity - the Earth on a petri dish.
I took a bit of time to verify if my above concern about jet contrails....
According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
We have seen a massive drop in aerosols and the conversation preceded this post further discussing the impact of contrails.According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
IMO, this is a low effort, no value added post. Someone should open a prediction thread for the non-science of guessing future weather events.
According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
IMO, this is a low effort, no value added post. Someone should open a prediction thread for the non-science of guessing future weather events.
We have seen a massive drop in aerosols and the conversation preceded this post further discussing the impact of contrails.According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
IMO, this is a low effort, no value added post. Someone should open a prediction thread for the non-science of guessing future weather events.
I think Freegrass is correct. The aerosol problem this year is unprecedented. A page or two back, or it may have been another thread, someone posted that we contribute roughly 8 Pinatubos of SO2 a year to the atmosphere. What will the impact be of one less Pinatubo a year? Or two? Or three? Or even four? The best case is we have two "reverse Pinatubos" the worst, is probably three or four. That is a recipe for absolute catastrophe in the Arctic, especially when you compound it with the impact of contrails / etc.
According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.
Only outdone by your response.
We have seen a massive drop in aerosols and the conversation preceded this post further discussing the impact of contrails.You probably refer to this post: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3017.msg261429.html#msg261429 , in particular its paragraph following "3." one. And while "absolute catastrophe" is not likely to happen - i deem "absolute catastrophe" being the state when Arctic ocean top layers stay much above freezing point 24/365, like it was in the past when crocodiles lived there, - i concur that this melt season is likely to mark the beginning of the shift which will eventually lead to such a state. Huge thermal capacity, you know. Will take more than one or two summers to get there.
I think Freegrass is correct. The aerosol problem this year is unprecedented. A page or two back, or it may have been another thread, someone posted that we contribute roughly 8 Pinatubos of SO2 a year to the atmosphere. What will the impact be of one less Pinatubo a year? Or two? Or three? Or even four? The best case is we have two "reverse Pinatubos" the worst, is probably three or four. That is a recipe for absolute catastrophe in the Arctic, especially when you compound it with the impact of contrails / etc.
...Gentlemen - everyone! I ask us all to note the above bold / large (my enhancement) words and always remember them. At _all_ times.
* Personally-charged comments and slights of honor should be avoided (even when justified...), ...
I thank you, Oren
* Comments about the data posted by JCG and Gero in the data thread should be posted in this thread, rather than in the data thread itself.
Six off topic messages because of this one little sentence I wrote... That's insane! (seven now)According to Nico Sun's area calculations, we are back in spot #1 today.And I think that's where we'll stay all season...
...Yes, it would be. 2013 and onwards is a whole new league of its own.
Would it be more informative if I changed how many years the current year is compared to. Maybe post-2012 instead?
...
According to my mining script regional conditions are poor compared to the last decade.Which sea is represented by "dd", the first entry of your chart?
2020 tries to self-isolate.I expect this year will be worse than 2019 especially if the Siberian side will melt out early, what is very likely. The Beaufort sea and CAA look more safely but everything can happen
Fast ice breaking off north of Greenland, close toNaresStrait.
Thanks for the correction Niall! I always mix those two up...Fast ice breaking off north of Greenland, close toNaresStrait.
Fram Strait
NSIDC Total Area as at 27-Apr-2020 (5 day trailing average) 11,545,487 KM2Area is tracking 2016 pretty closely. It was saved from beating 2012 only by shifts in the weather in July as I recall. As it was, ice quality and volume were still butchered.<snippage>
Total Area
11,545,487 km2
-490,913 km2 < 2010's average.
-69,638 km2 < 2019
-774,162 km2 < 2000's average.
Total Change -98 k loss
Peripheral Seas -67 k loss
Central Seas___ -31 k loss
- 2020 Area is -70 k less than 2019
- An impressive loss,
<more snippage>
see https://cryospherecomputing.tk/
That's early for fast ice break-off, isn't it?
...Interesting indeed, but needs to be observed in conjunction with data about ongoing cloud cover (or lack of) over said peripheral seas. There are two factors we expect to play a big role in the process - vulnerable state of ice and clean air, and yet they both are minimized when/where there is no sunlight present over any given peripheral sea, roughly speaking. Thus i'd say it's not just "if" area drops or not, - it's "if" area drops in those seas which are any well soaked in direct sunlight.
It will be interesting to see if area drops below 2016 over the next few days, which considering how much vulnerable ice there is in peripheral seas, shouldn't be hard.
April 23-28.These gif's are an awesome contribution to the site and even better now that we can compare to last year. Pacific side was much more advanced in terms of 2D ice loss last year at this point. Atlantic side is further along this year where we see some open water N of 80N. The cliff at 82N which separates the Nansen Basin from the shallow Atlantic will get a good test this season.
We have liftoff north of Greenland, to the left of Nares
Hmmm... 🤔500 km3 of ice gone in last 10 days of April, eh. If this what's going on, then things melt as if it was last 10 days of May, not April. Like lengthening melt season by 1 month, sort of. For BoE, "extra 3 weeks" should suffice if one would do some silly numbers on a napkin based on what we saw in 2019. Could be we're starting to see even more melt power than anticipated per some above concerns, Pinatubo and all. Please keep 'em volume graphics coming if possible once a week. Few more weeks should tell us helluva lot of story already if this pace would continue.
what's the difference between PIOMAS volume and DMI volume?
That's a big one slowly making its way down the Fram (~110 km wide)That's been sitting there for almost 2 weeks now.
<snip>
Fram export has been very slow.
what's the difference between PIOMAS volume and DMI volume?
That's a big one slowly making its way down the Fram (~110 km wide)This big floe consists of probably two-year or even multi-year sea ice?
This is the D5-10 anomaly average, but by D10 -- far out, I knowI'd be interested to see your longer term forecasts on Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2692.0.html)
<Please avoid posting forecasts more than 5 days out. O>
what's the difference between PIOMAS volume and DMI volume?
what's the difference between PIOMAS volume and DMI volume?
sloshing about in melt ponds.
Slater is predicting the ESS to melt out before the Laptev it seems. That would be interesting...
The images from Bremen & NSIDC for 30 April show an awful lot of not-a-lot-of-ice from the pole to FJL / SvalbardSlater is predicting the ESS to melt out before the Laptev it seems. That would be interesting...
This is from Slater thread. Pls take a look at the picture. Something odd seems to be going on there. The North Hole or just a sensor artifact?
Edit: couldn’t post the picture with phone. The pic on Freegrass’s post shows the ”Hole” between Svalbard and the Pole
So what is that, really? Cloud/storm tracks throwing off the data or something?If memory serves me right, melt ponds are the usual culprit for the sensors seeing open water where there is actually ice, but it is too early for melt ponding at such high latitudes.
Are different data collectors getting this same result?
Don't we see this same sort of thing all the time in different areas, so this is unremarkable?
So what is that, really?I think the ice got "stretched out" there last week. That created a lot of open water between the flows.
Niall, of course, it's not true.I expect these are transient weather artifacts. Animate it to get a better sense of it.
But the sensors see something there. What is it in your opinion?
... Animate it ...
Niall, of course, it's not true.
But the sensors see something there. What is it in your opinion?
The five day forecast looks boring. But maybe boring is good for a change?It looks like boring was good indeed. The temperature is back to normal, and the forecast stays "boring" for a few more days.
JAXA thckness
Me neither, Neill. ;) Perhaps it rained, perhaps moisture, perhaps clouds. Let's see if we hear something from the Polarstern.This photograph, i believe, was created from Polarstern's bridge ~3 days ago, 28th April:
...
Standard JAXA provision @ https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/vishop-monitor.html?NJAXA thckness
Haven't seen this before, what can we find historical data and how is it calculated?
The ice definetly got stretched out and not only allowed for open water but probably with this same movement caused upwelling. Anyone know the temperature in this area? Not the surface but just below it.So what is that, really?I think the ice got "stretched out" there last week. That created a lot of open water between the flows.
I have no clue how he's doing it, but Wipneus has crunched the numbers.JAXA thckness
Haven't seen this before, what can we find historical data and how is it calculated?
Can you see the bear? Anyhow, from the accompanying note posted at nasa.gov (https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/fromthefield/2020/04/28/polar-bear-visits-polarstern/), we can read that the bear is, quote, "standing behind Met City near a small lead, likely waiting for a seal". Earlier in the note, we also read that bear, quote, "... sat near a small crack in the ice for almost two hours, likely waiting for a seal to surface". Seals, i understand, would need open water to come onto the ice, where polar bears could hunt them.
... Seals do NOT crawl onto the ice where polar bears "can hunt them"!They do, see v=zNO0kxTClYo on YT. However, i'm much more interested to know what you think about my above hypothesis of sunlight actually adding some melt water whenever irregular ice/snow surfaces are present. I agree with others when they say it'd be highly unusual to see melt ponds forming now, but then i also see highly (pun intended) unusual temperatures in March on Atlantic and Siberian sides, too:
...
Ascat grays show near-surface ice salinity, ie upward brine extrusion. Ice Ih crystals (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_Ih) cannot accommodate any guest atoms, not even fluoride. The radar penetrates dry snow but beam reflection back to the satellite is diminished (darkening) by its surface dielectric constant (polarity of Na+ Cl- salts) escaping above and below through brine channels. In MYI, the brine exclusion process is near completion. MYI can be melted and drunk, unlike FYI or SYI (Borneo experience).I would add that the whiteness in new ice seen along the ESS and Laptev coasts, and that appearing in new leads, is due to some reason other than old age. The mp4 is 5.5MB with no additional -crf compression
Thus whiteness on Ascat is closely correlated with increasing ice age which in turn is strongly correlated with ice thickness. That’s the reason cryo2smos (as panoply grayscale) looks so much like Ascat. There’s little value to summer Ascat because of airborne spray in liquid cloud aerosols and brine reforming in meltwater.
Also an ascat animation for this freezing/melting season so far.I think I've replayed this more than 30 times. I am deeply concerned with the sustained ~month of west-to-east movement and export into the Fram. The movement pulls back the ice from almost as far as the Beaufort. This kind of movement could gut the Arctic of its most important ice, if it happens again and is sustained for longer. Not sure what kind of weather pattern can cause this and what the probability is for it to remain sustained for a long period.
... Not sure what kind of weather pattern can cause this and what the probability is for it to remain sustained for a long period. ...Why, we can see it alright. Quite a pattern indeed.
I will keep on hoping that the lull in export in recent weeks is continued.Sad to inform you that Fram export will begin again in two days from now. I already planned to post a wind forecast about that, but I'll do it tomorrow, because I already posted a temp forecast just yesterday.
The black circle moved 600km from day 68 to day 105whoi itp116 (https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=164836) tends to confirm your observations, though drifting from further north it possibly covered a larger distance of 691.2km from the beginning of day68 to end of day105
Current NH albedo is about normal overall. Spring is coming late over Canada.
On the whole, the 2020 melt season has been pretty uneventful.
The latest JAXA extent #'s have 2020 in 5th place, closer to 14th place than 1st. The latest 5 day NSIDC area average is a slight net gain.
Fram / Barents export should be perking up again this week with a high pressure of ~ 1050 heading for Greenland and a low in the Kara, but the early season has been much cooler thus far than last year.
It's pretty irrelevant.
We are a month away before any mass melt ponding in the Arctic basin will even take place.
2-3 weeks is what i expect, Friv. Not 1 month. Cleaner air, you know. Instruments confirm, overall Arctic.
It's pretty irrelevant.
We are a month away before any mass melt ponding in the Arctic basin will even take place.
2D ice measures in May are clearly relevant. They impact albedo and are providing a buffer against intrusion of warm Pacific water. We're 7 weeks from solstice. At this time last year we had substantial open water in the Beaufort Sea.
Saying there was substantial open water in the Beaufort sea last year at this time is severely disingenuous.
I see a lot of open water near Utqiagvik in the image from last year and a significant amount of open water near between Banks Island and the Alaska coast that isn't present at this time this year.
I see a lot of open water near Utqiagvik in the image from last year and a significant amount of open water near between Banks Island and the Alaska coast that isn't present at this time this year.
The "open water near Utqiagvik" you refer to was in the Chukchi Sea using the usual definitions. Below is an "objective" view on historical Beaufort Sea ice area.
It's a first order component of albedo, it's capable to self preserve, or self-accelerate its own reduction, and this Spring evolution matters in the Arctic SummerCurrent NH albedo is about normal overall. Spring is coming late over Canada.
That's a pretty crude way of making a determination on albedo.
Things are about to rapidly change in the NW 1/3td of North America
How much there will be ice left exactly.
I do not want to be alarmist.
Also it's currently 2F(-17C) at Barrow, Alaska(Utqiagvik)
The forecast calls for:
Today: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 16. East wind around 15 mph.
Tonight: Flurries after 2am. Areas of freezing fog after 2am. Mostly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy toward daybreak, with a low around 6. East wind 10 to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 16. East wind around 10 mph.
Tuesday Night: Flurries after 2am. Areas of freezing fog after 2am. Mostly clear, then becoming mostly cloudy toward daybreak, with a low around 6. Northeast wind around 10 mph.
Wednesday: Flurries before 2pm. Areas of freezing fog before 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 15. East wind 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 6.
Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20.
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 10.
Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 26.
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 14.
Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29.
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 16.
Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 31.
Utqiagvik AK
71.3°N 156.81°W (Elev. 0 ft)
Yep it's not really the temperature that causes the damage at this time of year, it's the winds and how persistent they are blowing in more or less the same direction, coupled with the Beaufort Gyre and I would bet heavily the Beaufort sea will look somewhat different by around the 11th.
It will be interesting too see the Chukchi sea ice also by then, suspect we may see more open water on the Alaskan side in particular by then also.
As if 1050+ is not enough to be one helluva big story, though. Especially for May. Lots of places would see it as highest-ever in well over a century of observations, like, for example, Iceland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_atmospheric_pressure_records_in_Europe#Iceland_monthly_maximum_figures_for_atmospheric_pressure).
The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.
This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.
A straight SUPERLONG WIND FIELD running from Alaska/nw Canada to the North Atlantic.
WILD
does anyone think the increasing open water lead in the bering strait is the incursion of a warm current? It looks that way, especially given the shape and speed, but it could just have been a weak area given it's almost dead centre.That open water was created by wind and movement of the ice.
The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.
How fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds. NA has been lagging behind. This will catch it up a bit.
This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.
But Day-yum!
Forecasts constantly show a lot of heat from the Pacific side. It will begin in 4 days. In 2019, similar forecasts (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg199598.html#msg199598) appeared 10-14 days later.
That snow forecast is going to be highly transient and not material to what's happening north, except in so far as the cold air exiting the Arctic has made room for warmer air to invade it.The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.<snippage>
It does not appear so. The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains. Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.Quote<snippage>
The 00z euro and 12z gem are straight filthy with the ridge they are showing coming to the NA side.This will definitely decimate snow cover and really kick start thawing rivers that feed into the Arctic from the Yukon West
<snippage>
But the euro does peak over 1050mb.
It does not appear so. The jet stream is dipping very far south just east of the Rocky Mountains. Consequently, the entire eastern half of North America will experience record-breaking cold this week, and snow is forecast for much of the northeast over the weekend.QuoteHow fast snow cover disappears is pretty crucial for both the change in albedo and the warm water it dumps into Arctic watersheds. NA has been lagging behind. This will catch it up a bit.
This is also going to pull a lot of cold air out of the CAB, to be replaced with warmth and moisture from the south, looks like.
But Day-yum!
I hope the upcoming pre-conditioning is more like what this 12Z ECMWF run is suggesting (than the GFS). GFS has 2m temperatures going positive across a wide area of the Arctic Basin at the end of the run Aluminium posted.
ECMWF still delivers +ve values for the ESS and into the Laptev and slides the big high over to Russian side at the end of the run. See also the very warm surface temps (+20C) in western Siberia moving right up to the snowline.
Of course these forecasts are in the medium range, still over a week away. And may change yet good or bad.
Whichever model you look at, a dipole pattern WILL occur and the ice in the Beaufort sea is going to move with help of the Beaufort Gyre. That is not in doubt.
The usual caveats will apply on just how strong the dipole will be and its duraction. There is more than good enough trends of perhaps a strong blocking high developing over the Arctic with winds being in a dipole position. It will be very interesting how the ice reacts to this type of pattern.
It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.Great news! I think, next week won't have unusually rapid total volume drop yet, too. But after ~15th, can be another unprecedented drop, it seems. Aluminium says about those 10...14 days, few posts above. And of course this whole deal about high pressure, too. I checked some air temps and winds couple days ago over ice in southern Greenland, a bit above surface, and it was up to 10C moist air going over rather big area there, which while not extremely abnormal then and there in the past - is still significantly higher than in previous seasons. Etc.
It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.
Maybe the data is useless, but is the trend as well? When DMI says the volume increased, shouldn't we take that as a fact?It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.
DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.
It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.
DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.
It looks like last week has been good for the ice. Volume has increased again.
DMI volume is essentially useless for this sort of purpose. See the DMI thread for details of why it shouldn't be used in this way.
I've read that thread but my takeaway is not that it's "useless" for this. If it shows the volume going down or up, there are good reasons for that. The input data for the model isn't just random noise, it's actual weather, meaning that if conditions for the ice is bad, it will show the volume going down, and if conditions are good, it will show the volume going down. The absolute historical values may not be as accurate as f.ex. PIOMAS due to different design goals, but it's still a working volume model and the trend should not be neglected.
I ask again: Please don't over-discuss the DMI volume here. It's not reliable enough, neither for past comparisons nor for trend detection. I don't mind the chart posted from time to time. If you have good evidence for its reliability, please post it in the DMI volume thread.
And yet, this is my policy: posting the chart is allowed, over-discussing it is discouraged, debunking it (using detailed arguments) is encouraged - in the appropriate thread, which I hope to do myself when I find the time and ability. Yes it is unreliable, no, it is not totally devoid of value, until someone can prove that - in the appropriate thread. Policy disagreements are allowed - in the appropriate thread.I ask again: Please don't over-discuss the DMI volume here. It's not reliable enough, neither for past comparisons nor for trend detection. I don't mind the chart posted from time to time. If you have good evidence for its reliability, please post it in the DMI volume thread.
I disagree. If you are going to allow data to be posted which is well understood (by regs) to be unreliable, then it's important to allow it to be debunked so that less informed readers are not misled by assertions of its reliability. An uneducated lurker coming to this thread mid-stream would get the misleading impression that sea ice volume is currently at an all-time low for the date from the DMI chart.
The most elegant solution seems to involve not posting DMI volume charts in this thread.
I though it was interesting, and probably rare, that the temperature these days would still follow the long term average for a while... And then I looked at 2016...
For the benefit of any lurkers....
Fish out of water, Good to see you back for the melt season.
Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
My apologies to the people with low bandwidth, but this weather event is too big to ignore. There's a lot of ice that's gonna go down the drain in the coming week...
There's a lot going on in the Arctic right now. You have the high pressure system bringing in heat on the pacific side that will spread over the CAB, and you've got strong winds blowing ice out of the Fram and towards the Barents sea.Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
My apologies to the people with low bandwidth, but this weather event is too big to ignore. There's a lot of ice that's gonna go down the drain in the coming week...
Are you talking about the big warm cyclone coming off of Norway on the 12th? The strong consistent southerly wind in the Fram Strait? Or am I totally missing the point?
....
It's really crazy the winds that are predicted.
here's the latest CryoSat-2/SMOS "measured" volume:The figure's interesting to see alright, thanks for sharing! But here's one side note about it.
http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2020/05/facts-about-the-arctic-in-may-2020/
The graph stops in mid April, since melt ponds confuse the sensors
F. Tnioli, a gentle warning: I will not tolerate hints of lies, conspiracies and the like on this thread. There is a perfectly good explanation, and lying by ice scientists is not it.Will you tolerate this thread saying "there are no melt ponds in April" and also saying "no data from CryoSat-2 for 2nd half of April because meltponds confuse sensors"?
In addition, I've requested that DMI volume discussions take place in the appropriate thread.
Will you tolerate this thread saying "there are no melt ponds in April" and also saying "no data from CryoSat-2 for 2nd half of April because meltponds confuse sensors"?
You have the high pressure system bringing in heat on the pacific side that will spread over the CAB, and you've got strong winds blowing ice out of the Fram and towards the Barents sea.
It's really crazy the winds that are predicted.
I think the video is self-explanatory. If you want more details, you can always look those up on Nullschool.You have the high pressure system bringing in heat on the pacific side that will spread over the CAB, and you've got strong winds blowing ice out of the Fram and towards the Barents sea.
It's really crazy the winds that are predicted.
Heat from the Pacific spreading over the CAB in early May would be a rare observation. What's your source for this and how are you defining the CAB?
Instead of using adjectives like "crazy" to describe the winds, maybe you can try objective descriptions like location, duration and wind speed so people have a better idea what you are referring to?
...
Thus, CryoSat-2 thicknesses stop at April 30 and SMOS (respectively CryoSat-2/SMOS) thicknesses stop at April 15.
I think the video is self-explanatory. If you want more details, you can always look those up on Nullschool.You have the high pressure system bringing in heat on the pacific side that will spread over the CAB, and you've got strong winds blowing ice out of the Fram and towards the Barents sea.
It's really crazy the winds that are predicted.
Heat from the Pacific spreading over the CAB in early May would be a rare observation. What's your source for this and how are you defining the CAB?
Instead of using adjectives like "crazy" to describe the winds, maybe you can try objective descriptions like location, duration and wind speed so people have a better idea what you are referring to?
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/12/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304/loc=34.948,80.486 (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/12/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304/loc=34.948,80.486)
Please read....https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/thin-ice-thickness/...No.
Thus, CryoSat-2 thicknesses stop at April 30 and SMOS (respectively CryoSat-2/SMOS) thicknesses stop at April 15.
Thin sea ice occurs during the freezing season. In the melting season, the thickness of sea ice is highly variable and the emission properties in the microwave change due to the wetness of the surface and occurrence of melt ponds in the Arctic. Therefore, thickness data are calculated only during the freezing season, that is from October to April in the Arctic and from March to September in the Antarctic. During the melting season, the procedure does not yield meaningful results.uni-bremen are kind enough to continue to provide the service as other information may be inferred from the data...at the user's discretion
...
Thus, CryoSat-2 thicknesses stop at April 30 and SMOS (respectively CryoSat-2/SMOS) thicknesses stop at April 15.
No.
(https://i.postimg.cc/W4pnwrSk/SMOS.jpg)
Instead of using adjectives like "crazy" to describe the winds
Thanks Neven. :) I'll keep doing my best to be better. But still so much to learn... :-[QuoteInstead of using adjectives like "crazy" to describe the winds
By all means, use adjectives like "crazy" to describe winds and other phenomena. In fact, be as creative as you can (friv is a good teacher ;) ). However, make sure that the forecasted winds truly are crazy, and a bit of comparative context is always nice.
..."Service" from "stopped" SMOS?
uni-bremen are kind enough to continue to provide the service as other information may be inferred from the data...at the user's discretion
Hamburg, Bremen and AWI are different institutions. We are fortunate that we can share some of their data. We are unfortunate in that some of it disappears quite suddenly. I recommend using what you can while it is available. There is also this thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2341.0.html)..."Service" from "stopped" SMOS?
uni-bremen are kind enough to continue to provide the service as other information may be inferred from the data...at the user's discretion
>>>>>
If we'd be failing to avoid "contradicting per common sense of a non-scientist" statements here - even when such contradictions are in error de-facto - then what exactly this topic is for?
Please note, i am not asking to explain every little detail in this topic. I ask to use non-contradicting terms. Like, instead of "melt ponds confuse sensors" - say, for example, "technology limitations disallow reliable total Arctic ice volume measurement after mid-April based on those sensors". Like, instead of "SMOS stopped" say "SMOS measurements stop being used for calculating total ice volume mid-spring due to growing measurement errors which currently we're unable to remove". Etc.Thank you for the better description of SMOS cutoff for Cryosat, and other SMOS limitations. This is what should have been posted in the first place if you find the original poster was not accurate enough. Clarify, explain, bring more info, make better wording. And do not hint the cutoff is to hide something or that somebody was lying because they used inaccurate terminology.
If we'd be failing to avoid "contradicting per common sense of a non-scientist" statements here - even when such contradictions are in error de-facto - then what exactly this topic is for?
Thank you for the better description of SMOS cutoff for Cryosat, and other SMOS limitations. This is what should have been posted in the first place if you find the original poster was not accurate enough. Clarify, explain, bring more info, make better wording. And do not hint the cutoff is to hide something or that somebody was lying because they used inaccurate terminology.When it seems someone is not accurate enough, i exactly offer a description which i deem better one. Like i just did above, - and there is no need to thank me for it really, such a small thing. "Not accurate enough" at some point gets "so off the target it doesn't look they are even trying" though.
Back to what this topic is for - bringing information, data, analysis and commentary about the Arctic sea ice melting season that is just beginning in earnest.
I take this as a gentle hint that it's time i say good bye
Please note, i am not asking to explain every little detail in this topic. I ask to use non-contradicting terms. Like, instead of "melt ponds confuse sensors" - say, for example, "technology limitations disallow reliable total Arctic ice volume measurement after mid-April based on those sensors".
April ice thickness anomalies from PIOMAS agree well with the multi-sensor CryoSat/SMOS thickness analysis from the Alfred Wegener Institute/ESA with the strongest positive and negative anomalies in the right places. An area of thicker than normal ice north of Greenland that was present in PIOMAS but missing from CryoSat/SMOS in March is now is now showing up in Cryosat/SMOS though considerably smoothed out. The time series for CryoSat/SMOS total volume shows April 2020 as lower relative to the 2011-2020 period while PIOMAS shows a bit of an uptick. Neither time series indicates a trend over the past 10 years contrasting the drastic thinning over the last 40-years. Note that Cryosat/SMOS retrievals only go through April 15 as the microwave based retrieval of both system forces a summer hiatus.
So, it sure looks like someone's lying: either those who said "no meltponds there", or whomever said "after mid-April melt ponds confused the sensors".Ditto I hope you keep participating, but Oren was correctly moderating. Now let's get back to the weather and ice...
NSIDC monthly update for April out now. Always an interesting read.Thanks for this, puts things in perspective.
This month a lot about the March storms and the Chukchi.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
Some open water is now visible in the Beaufort Sea:
https://go.nasa.gov/3bnOffs
Has transport out of the Fram been higher than normal this year or lately? That's one part of the arctic I know little about.
Climate Reanalyzer GFS
a) Strong positive temperature anomalies for next week over most of the Arctic Ocean (ArcOc)
b) Surface temperatures warm enough to advance ice melt over large areas of ArcOc
c) A persistent high-pressure system over the ArcOc for the next week or more, resulting in what I interpret to be large areas of clear sky -- during mid-May with solar shortwave radiation within 6 weeks of annual max, thus beginning of the 3-month period of highest solar gain. (The color scheme is subtle but if I remember correctly, the CR creator told me the light blue indicates clear skies over ice.)
d) A persistent low-pressure system east of NE Greenland that creates a strong windfield on May 10-13 for increased Fram export.
Any one of these four would be noteworthy on their own. The combination seems remarkable.
It just maybe that over the next week or more we will see Arctic sea ice (and snow cover) under attack on all fronts at various times - i.e. a major warming event
windy.com has a nice feature that allows a user to toggle back and forth between GFS and ECMWF forecast models.
They feature is revealing a substantial difference between the models as it pertains to current warmth penetration into higher latitudes. GFS is showing >0 all the way to the north pole while ECMWF is not showing anything remotely close to that.
Please remember to incorporate an appreciation for a level of uncertainty in the forecasts being presented, particularly when there is strong model disagreement. Those Climate Reanalyzer images are based upon the projections of the GFS model. They are not facts.
The 850 hPa temperature anomaly is a pretty good indication of where the ground temperature anomaly wants to be had it not been for the ice, and if you look at that, the GFS and Euro are very similar in intensity. In fact at some frames the Euro looks even warmer over the pole than the GFS does. Below is the GFS and Euro respectively at +48h.
Being mid-May, a significant & sustained warming event should show up in extent, area & volume losses greater than average. and in accelerated snow cover extent & snow water equivalent reductions.
It just maybe that over the next week or more we will see Arctic sea ice (and snow cover) under attack on all fronts at various times - i.e. a major warming event
How will we know if said warming event materializes and the extent of it? Something like DMI 80 ?
The 850 hPa temperature is somewhere away from the ice. I'm not sure of the altitude, maybe someone with more knowledge than me can provide that.
But it is the temperature adjacent to the ice that is going to impact the ice, not the temperature 1,000 feet above sea level. For the benefit of the lurkers who are reading the thread, I think it's useful to kick the tires and questions some assumptions about the magnitude of the current events.
The heat coming into the Chukchi and ESS and the high winds pushing ice through Fram is quite significant and easily understandable and acceptable. No problem.
Maintaining heat over ice for a very long distance over ice and delivering it to the surface of much of the CAB where it can impact the ice in May is a completely differently animal. Skepticism of this is healthy from a scientific perspective.
.. and last year Neven was saying anticyclonic weather in May was no bad thing when it came to ice survival . Good to have another chance to observe .. b.c.2019 season thread has plenty of discussion about that.
Surface air temperatures over the ice are held close to a 0C maximum due to the latent heat of fusion of ice. This is quite apparent each year on the DMI 80N temperatures. For that reason, using something like the 850hPa temperature (or the less common, 925hPa value) is useful for assessing the relative heat mass over the ice. It's far from perfect, and temperature inversions, fog and such will add more complications, but much of the time in summer, 850hPa temperatures are more useful that surface temperatures.
Surface temps N of 80N stay close to zero because they are far away from the big heated rocks of Siberia and NA. That's why the ice remains there at the September minimum. Transporting enough heat over long distance to the surface of the CAB ice is not a trivial matter.
Real data is sparse. We do have the Polarstern reporting currently at 83.5 N 13.1 E
Its temperature at 9UTC today was -13.4 C. Using Nullschool, the GFS model is showing a temperature of -9.3 C for same time/location.
850hPa temps are useful to help show the expected air mass moving in. But it should always be remembered that these are temps at circa 1500 metres, way above the ice.
Something like DMI 80 ?
Surface temps N of 80N stay close to zero because they are far away from the big heated rocks of Siberia and NA. That's why the ice remains there at the September minimum. Transporting enough heat over long distance to the surface of the CAB ice is not a trivial matter.
Transporting air from the south is not the only way the pole can warm up. High pressure areas, like the one being forecast now, causes sinking air, and air warms as it sinks. Which also increases the relevance of the 850 hPA air temperature, because that air is moving downwards toward the surface.
I wonder why people think that the landmasses of Alaska and Sibera are more significant sources of heat in summer, than are the open ocean areas surrounding the ice. The open ocean absorbs much more solar energy than does dry land, has a much higher heat capacity, and has the ability to move the heat to the ice directly rather than going through the ethereal media of air.
It is 1030 am. & still no JAXA data - patience is a virtue?
May 2016 might end up being a good analog; check out the temperature and hPa anomalies over the arctic... and last year Neven was saying anticyclonic weather in May was no bad thing when it came to ice survival . Good to have another chance to observe .. b.c.2019 season thread has plenty of discussion about that.
But if my memory serves me right, the conclusion was that sunshine per se is not necessarily that bad for ice in the early season. Albedo is high and surface temperature stays low. This time, however, we are getting a "hot high" with warm air mass that could initiate surface melt thus lowering albedo.
I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.
I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.
That ain't no joke that is crazy you're going to see open water come in the kara or the laptev because of all this
A year ago to the day, there was forecasted high pressure that resulted in some interesting analysis. Take a look at the 2019 melting season thread from 5/12/19 through about 5/21/19: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.800.html
There are also some areas around Greenland which certainly have more robust sea ice in far better condition compared to the same date last year. I'm not sure how much of a difference all of that will make going forward.
Here is another Wrangel temp chart.
To Charles_oil's question, the graph shows the month of May so far, with daily high, low and average, and the climate long-term high low and average. Dots are the highest high and lowest low for the date. When the chart touches the dot, it means record high was set this year.
It comes from a very useful Russian-language site, which also has charts of any past month of your choosing.
http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982 (http://www.pogodaiklimat.ru/monitor.php?id=21982)
Is this weather station really on the ESS coast?Yes. It's foehn.
Is this weather station really on the ESS coast?Yes. It's foehn.
... Not sure much melt is happening ...
Corrected Reflectance (Bands 3-6-7)Interpretation of redness is the key here.
Temporal coverage: 24 February 2000 - Present
False Color: Red = Band 3, Green = Band 6, Blue = Band 7
This combination is used to map snow and ice. Snow and ice are very reflective in the visible part of the spectrum (Band 3), and very absorbent in Bands 6 and 7 (short-wave infrared, or SWIR). This band combination is good for distinguishing liquid water from frozen water, for example, clouds over snow, ice cloud versus water cloud; or floods from dense vegetation. This band combination is only available for MODIS (Terra) because 70% of the band 6 sensors on the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite failed shortly after launch.
The MODIS Corrected Reflectance imagery is available only as near real-time imagery. The imagery can be visualized in Worldview and the Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS. The sensor resolution is 500 m and 250 m (Bands 1 and 2 have a sensor resolution of 250 m, Bands 3 – 7 have a sensor resolution of 500 m, and Bands 8 - 36 are 1 km. Band 1 is used to sharpen Band 3, 4, 6, and 7), imagery resolution is 250 m, and the temporal resolution is daily.
Snow and Ice
Since the only visible light used in these images (Band 3) is assigned to red, snow and ice appear bright red. The more ice, the stronger the absorption in the SWIR bands, and the more red the color. Thick ice and snow appear vivid red (or red-orange), while small ice crystals in high-level clouds will appear reddish-orange or peach.
Vegetation
Vegetation will appear green in this band combination, as vegetation is absorbent in Bands 3 and 7, but reflective in Band 6. Bare soil and deserts will appear bright cyan in the image since it much more reflective in Band 6 and 7 than Band 3.
Water
Liquid water on the ground will appear very dark since it absorbs in the red and the SWIR, but small liquid water drops in clouds scatter light equally in both the visible and the SWIR, and will therefore appear white. Sediments in water appear dark red.
MODIS Corrected Reflectance vs. MODIS Surface Reflectance
The MODIS Corrected Reflectance algorithm utilizes MODIS Level 1B data (the calibrated, geolocated radiances). It is not a standard, science quality product. The purpose of this algorithm is to provide natural-looking images by removing gross atmospheric effects, such as Rayleigh scattering, from MODIS visible bands 1-7. The algorithm was developed by the original MODIS Rapid Response team to address the needs of the fire monitoring community who want to see smoke. Corrected Reflectance shows smoke more clearly than the standard Surface Reflectance product. In contrast, the MODIS Land Surface Reflectance product (MOD09) is a more complete atmospheric correction algorithm that includes aerosol correction, and is designed to derive land surface properties. In clear atmospheric conditions the Corrected Reflectance product is very similar to the MOD09 product, but they depart from each other in presence of aerosols. If you wish to perform a complete atmospheric correction, please do not use the Corrected Reflectance algorithm. An additional difference is that the Land Surface Reflectance product is only tuned for calculating the reflectance over land surfaces.
...the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
...the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
Or will the ice move away from the coast because of those anticyclonic winds that compact the ice pack?
I agree that the ESS is in terrible shape this year. And - correct me if I'm wrong - the cause of this is the counterclockwise motion of the ice pack this winter. So I'm very curious to see if by the end of the week a change in that rotation will have filled the ESS back up again....the ice in the ESS is in trouble and we could see a record retreat here.Isn't ice going to pile up in the ESS because of that huge anticyclone?
Or will the ice move away from the coast because of those anticyclonic winds that compact the ice pack?
As it stands the winds are pushing the ice away from the Siberian landmass and partly away from the little fast ice we actually do have this year. Any subtle changes in wind direction may close those holes up again somewhat(just have to see where this high ends up) but the ice looks largely thin in the ESS this year with only some slightly larger blocks.
Reckon the ESS is going to be shocking early melt season story after last years early Beaufort sea retreat.
Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.You may be confusing ice rotation with a swath rotation artifact on ASCAT which is enhanced by that interferometry method. Beaufort and Western CAA/CAB don't show significant anti-clockwise motion up to now.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883
Beaufort and Western CAA/CAB don't show significant anti-clockwise motion up to now.True. It only happened for a short period of time, when we had that big Fram export event. But it was significant enough to clear the ESS from a lot of ice.
Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.Well let's just leave it that I don't agree with your interpretation of that animation. :)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883
What is it they say about democracy? That it's an organized disagreement? ;)Edit: Uniquorn just posted a video of this years freezing season, and it clearly shows the counterclockwise movement I was talking about.Well let's just leave it that I don't agree with your interpretation of that animation. :)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2417.msg263883.html#msg263883)
From Climate reanalyzer, 10 day NH temp anomaly...wow.
The errors I mention are re: futurecast and would not apply to re-analysis / hindcast, FYI.From Climate reanalyzer, 10 day NH temp anomaly...wow.
Again, for the benefit of those learning....
The GFS image being presented here is comparing forecasted temperatures from the GFS model to the average of years 1979-2000. The midpoint of that range is 30 years ago.
The earth as a whole is increasing in temperature by ~ 0.2C / decade or ~ 0.6C in the last 30 years. With Arctic amplification, I'll swag it and say the Arctic has increased by ~ 1.5C in the last 30 years. In a normal year (by current standards), the average situation for this image is a significant positive temperature anomaly. We should expect to see a lot of red in this image on a regular basis.
On top of that, we throw in the potential errors in the current GFS model itself as mentioned in my previous post.
The truth is that we probably do have some positive temperature anomaly in the Arctic relative to even recent years, but perhaps not as much "wow" as the image suggests.
.SYNOPSIS...
Very strong high pressure north of the Arctic Coast combined with a weather front over the West Coast and Interior is causing easterly gales of the Arctic Coast along with blowing snow. Expect winds to slowly decrease tonight as the front weakens. This front is causing rain over most of the West Coast south of Kotzebue that
will move west and taper off this evening.
The GFS is probably too warm.
The GFS is probably too warm.
I appreciate your concurrence.
The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.
Considering blocking pattern, the melting pond will be more and more. The melting pond is a signal of massive melt. The weather of MAY is important to decide the ice compared with June and July. June and July is common high speed melting months. However, the sensitivity of ice is high in May.
Actually, 2016 also shows an early melting pond in May. Although the summer is cool, it still leads to the second lowest sea ice extent. So I wonder that if the melting pond happens early in MAY it will have a greater chance to break the record even if the summer is not the hottest. However this summer will not be as cool as 2016. Together with the early melting pond, may be the BOE is coming.2016 could end up being a good analog. Early melt ponding is clearly favorable for ice loss later in the season, and if the ice is sufficiently pre-conditioned over the next week, we could set an extent low this year. That said, a BOE is still unlikely; the ice is too thick in too many places. Maybe I'm wrong.
Actually, 2016 also shows an early melting pond in May. Although the summer is cool, it still leads to the second lowest sea ice extent. So I wonder that if the melting pond happens early in MAY it will have a greater chance to break the record even if the summer is not the hottest. However this summer will not be as cool as 2016. Together with the early melting pond, may be the BOE is coming.
I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.
That ain't no joke that is crazy you're going to see open water come in the kara or the laptev because of all this
But the ESS and laptev gave been above 0C because the surface is wet.
The GFS is probably too warm.
I appreciate your concurrence.
The purpose of my posts are to provide less informed readers some guidance not to put too much faith in the accuracy of GFS forecasts being provided here and on the data thread. Seems you agree that these forecasts are overstating temperatures.
The positive AO has last for almost four months. The AO will be likely negative in the coming months considering the balancing of statistical average. Another factor is ocean temperature although influenced by the solar energy. The sea surface temperature is governed by the weather. The deep water is governed by the AMOC. I am not sure whether the current will be helpful in melting the sea ice.
The amount of clearing we have right now is so jacked up its a pinch me is this real?
I guarantee you scientists AT NSIDC, HAMBURG, BREMEN, MOSIAC, JAXA, IARC, PIOMAS, ESA, NASA, CSA AND SO ON ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS GOING OH SH$#
I agree with friv, and think one additional ingredient here is the amount of ice that will be sent down the death zone past Svalbard and out the Fram strait. We're looking at 4+ days of strong surface winds exporting ice. Just look at how packed the isobars are on this output and how well they are positioned to export ice.
That ain't no joke that is crazy you're going to see open water come in the kara or the laptev because of all this
Chiming in.
Add Ekman pumping. The ice is far more mobile than previous years, so it will not prevent transfer of force from the wind to the water below. We should see significant mixing of the column under those regions where the wind in this dipole are *already* at work. The CAB immediately north of Svalbard will be shattered more thoroughly than we would normally see before July.
The High combined with the storm over Svalbard create a near perfect hammer and anvil to shatter the Arctic. The only question remaining is just how severe the damage will be.
To underscore what Friv said earlier about albedo, we are talking about conditions being created (dropping albedo from 85 down to 60) which will more than double the amount of insolation being captured by the ice. It will be doing that about a month earlier than typical, during increasing insolation.
Certainly we've seen ice get beaten up with lowered albedo, but mostly that is happening after the solar peak in late June, so the ice is basically riding the end of a wave (diminishing insolation) after it's broken.
We may be about to see that equation shifted a full month, so that those late July conditions are reached in late June instead - at peak insolation. In short, the ice will be getting pulled into the "wave" of insolation just as it's breaking, with pretty serious consequences.
If that happens, it will be hard *not* to overtake the 2012 extent and area losses.
The amount of clearing we have right now is so jacked up its a pinch me is this real?
I guarantee you scientists AT NSIDC, HAMBURG, BREMEN, MOSIAC, JAXA, IARC, PIOMAS, ESA, NASA, CSA AND SO ON ARE ALL LOOKING AT THIS GOING OH SH$#
We are all going, "OH SH$#". Now that we are belatedly realizing that the fate of humanity has been dependent on cloud cover in the Arctic in May. Where did I put that bucket list.....
<nested quotes snipped>
Absolutely nailed what is at stake attm.
Just browsing through Modis looking at when the majority of the Arctic basin went from dry/semi dry surface to wet by year.
With about 80 percent being the magic mark.
The data runs from 2000-present
2000- third week July
2001- third week July
2002- second week July
2003- last week June
2004-first week July
2005- third week of June(had huge sunny skies basin wide in mid June)
2006-July first week
2007- first week June
2008- second week June(mid May Western CAB/Beaufort
2009- third & fourth week June
2010- between first and second week June
2011-second week June
2012- end of first week June
2013- end of June
2014-end of June/first week of July
2015-third to fourth week June
2016-third week June
2017-first week July
2018-fourth week June
2019- end of June early July
2020- ????
Notice not one year has May.
<snip>
Lol no but most of us live for anomalous events never seen before.
I'd like to see what it will take to collapse the basin ice near melt out.
Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.
Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.
You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.
Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.
Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.
You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.
How are you defining reality in the Arctic Ocean ? There aren't a lot of actual thermometers taking measurements there.
Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.
Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.
You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.
Barents sea ice on May 4, and today. ???
https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP
Last season I certainly remember GFS continually forecasting great warm events in the Arctic in their 5-10 day forecast that very frequently did not happen. One / two days later the event just was not there in their forecasts.
Since the upgrade my anecdotal evidence is that GFS is doing better. Last week I took their longer-term forecasts more seriously simply because those forecasts remained mostly unchanged as the days went by, and reality is currently pretty close to those forecasts from a week ago.
You never know, we might have to start taking the 5-10 day forecasts seriously. After all, a helluva lot of cash and time has been put into the met systems - so they should do better.
How are you defining reality in the Arctic Ocean ? There aren't a lot of actual thermometers taking measurements there.
As mentioned by Csnavywx earlier today, it's Satellites helping us out, Phoenix. :)
In other news, Polarstern readings and GFS are very much in agreement that it's -0.3˚C there today.
Edit: Oops, missed the minus. Thanks, Uniquorn for the correction
Bottom melt? :-X
True. That was a lot of loose rubble there. But still... that's a lot of ice that's gone so early in the season...Barents sea ice on May 4, and today. ???
https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP (https://go.nasa.gov/2T4lEFP)
Pretty noticeable change
Although that ice according to smos was only a .25M thick anyways.
Estimation of Mosaic Thermistor buoy ice and snow depth (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3013.0.html). Snow depth turns out to be tricky to calculate from temperature readings alone.Bottom melt? :-XWhere is that?
That shows like 12-15CM of snow.
Which is nothing
To save endless discussion, someone could document nullschool temperature for Polarstern coordinates since october (https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK) and produce the figures (not me). Or from now on would still be useful.
Friv, I wholeheartedly agree. The forum, some sponsor, some university, some billionaire, some country, some organization, humanity, should be filling the Arctic sea ice and the Antarctic and Greenland glaciers with devices to measure and photo them in various ways. Billions and trillions available for banks and oilmen but very little if anything for real-time localized Cryosphere monitoring.I thought of an "If only........" thread, and after a few seconds contemplation it became hhhuuuuggge.
We an discuss the achievable technical details, tradeoffs, and some fantasies, But not on this thread. Some existing or new buoy thread should be the proper venue.
The only way is up! ???
I've added 2019 and 2016 for comparison. These temperatures are highly unusual. The only year that is comparable is 2006 (last image), but I don't remember 2006 as being a disaster for the ice...
You're asking for MONEY more than thoughts... If there's no billionaire among us, ask Elon for... a disappointment
THOUGHTS
uni-hamburg amsr2-uhh, bering/chukchi, apr1-may13I just went back through the days again on Nullschool - because I couldn't remember a strong southern wind blowing through the Bering Strait in the last few weeks - and it turns out my memory didn't abandon me. Winds were mostly northerlies, or absent. So I'm curious now why all that ice got "pulled" into the Chukchi sea. It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...
It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...My take is that the dipole, high mslp over practically the whole basins area has persisted for long enough to force water out of Fram. The easiest fraction to move is the layer beneath that held still by the ice keels but that upper layer with the ice also seems to be moving generally towards Fram. The losses will be exaggerated by tidal forcings meaning that excess has to be replaced from somewhere so Atlantic waters deep through Fram and via Barents into St.Anna>Laptev and Pacific waters via Bering.
Looking at the nasa over the last few days, aluminums gif, and the forecast. ESS might look pretty interesting in a week, might get punished for not eating its vegetables this winter (volume), more cracking with wind and ice movement.
could have cracking all around the "shell" (coasts), like the beaufort ones with continued southerlies. kara. the anti-cyclonic winds also seem to help spur ice retreat in the bering. FJL ice on the Atlantic side too, that one will probably close up but there's a lot of wind forcing and it's moved quite a bit just the last few days, then the big ol' cyclone comes in over the barents, good chunk of volume sitting next to it and svalbard
east eurasia heat might be worth watching, looks like its tired of being cold. and then all the fram/atlantic export, will be an interesting week
Current CO2 @ Mauna Loa 416 ppm
450 ppm = Tipping Point ???
NSIDC Area data (continued)
One oddity that is continuing is that
- area loss in the periphery now below average,
- area loss in the high Arctic now above average.
Not sure what that means (if anything). Ice in the Central seas (literally) in rotten shape?
Thanks for those papers John! I'll have a look at them later.It can't be because of the current, can it? That would be a strong current... So could it be "suction" from a retreating Ice pack? I can't figure it out...My take is that the dipole, high mslp over practically the whole basins area has persisted for long enough to force water out of Fram. The easiest fraction to move is the layer beneath that held still by the ice keels but that upper layer with the ice also seems to be moving generally towards Fram. The losses will be exaggerated by tidal forcings meaning that excess has to be replaced from somewhere so Atlantic waters deep through Fram and via Barents into St.Anna>Laptev and Pacific waters via Bering.
Some of the papers/presentations (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3080.0.html) recently linked by Nukefix are relevant to this well worth the time.
...
Is this normal? ...
I would think that besides the ~1/3 reduction in global aerosols (I could be grossly off o this # but I think it is reasonable), the 90% drop in air traffic is the biggest contributor to the lack of clouds. Or, the drop in air traffic at this point may be taking primacy even over the drop in aerosols. There was a study after 9/11 that showed a major rise in temperatures when air traffic halted. This is now being replicated much more severely across the entire planet.
...
Is this normal? ...
Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected. I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
...
Is this normal? ...
Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected. I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
Something's moving north of Ellesmere in the last three days...
https://go.nasa.gov/36egM6t
There's a whole lot going on in the Arctic right now...That's probably why the man is looking so angry...
FG, this belongs in the Pareidolia thread, I would move it but I lack moderation authority there.I know Oren, but I thought it was suitable for the moment... It's an alternative smiley... ;)
True...I mean it is a Friday!And now you can never unsee it again! (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mysmiley.net%2Fgoogle%2Fgoogle_face-with-tears-of-joy_9602_mysmiley.net.png&hash=2452b9b78c35d761984537f823a993d9)
I also never noticed that 'grumpy man' before until now, but I definitely see it.
Whelp, given what I've seen already I do expect to see the Greenland mega crack to appear again. If I see more evidence/clear imagery I will post it in that thread.The reason for this "Ellesmere crack" is strong wind that's been blowing there for the last 2 days (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/14/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304). (Link is to Nullschool). Probably combined with the rotation of the anticyclone that's putting pressure on the entire ice pack?
True...I mean it is a Friday!And now you can never unsee it again! (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mysmiley.net%2Fgoogle%2Fgoogle_face-with-tears-of-joy_9602_mysmiley.net.png&hash=2452b9b78c35d761984537f823a993d9)
I also never noticed that 'grumpy man' before until now, but I definitely see it.QuoteWhelp, given what I've seen already I do expect to see the Greenland mega crack to appear again. If I see more evidence/clear imagery I will post it in that thread.The reason for this "Ellesmere crack" is strong wind that's been blowing there for the last 2 days (https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/05/14/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-45.02,91.24,2304). (Link is to Nullschool). Probably combined with the rotation of the anticyclone that's putting pressure on the entire ice pack?
Happy Friday!
Heat spike elevates Arctic to warmest levels this early in the year since at least 1958
A heat wave of historic proportions is gripping the Central Arctic, with the region setting a milestone for being so warm relative to average so early in the year.
According to a regional climate database that goes back to 1958, this week’s temperature spike in the Arctic, as defined as the region north of 80 degrees latitude, is unprecedented during that time period.
According to Martin Stendel, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the temperature data set, which is known as a reanalysis, shows how unusual the Arctic temperature anomalies are in the context of the past several decades.
“Concerning the Arctic temperature, that is indeed quite extraordinary. In the time series which is based on ERA40 and therefore goes back to 1958, there is no similar event so early in the season,” Stendel wrote in an email. “There is (again) very little sea ice in the Arctic (only 2019 had less),” Stendel noted.
A reanalysis is a way to put together a thorough record of how weather and climate conditions have varied over time.
The temperature spike, which is in part related to unusually mild air for this time of year flowing northward from the Russian Arctic, may have significant consequences. The milder temperatures and unusually clear skies could accelerate ice melt of sea and land ice across the vast region, particularly if cold snaps do not quickly follow.
Above-freezing temperatures are showing up in the Central Arctic about one month earlier than average this week, according to Ted Scambos, a senior research scientist at CIRES, an atmospheric research institute operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the University of Colorado at Boulder.
Zack Labe, a graduate student at the University of California at Irvine who studies Arctic climate change, said he’s not convinced there is an early-season record for Arctic temperature departures from average because the reanalysis in use is older and less precise than more updated records.
“While it’s representative of warm or cold periods, I don’t think we can’t say much about ‘records’ from using it,” Labe said of the temperature reanalysis. “Regardless of records, this is definitely an unusually warm period across the entire Arctic Ocean. I think a weather pattern like this, but in June, would be particularly bad for sea ice.”
Computer model projections show mild temperature anomalies covering a vast expanse, stretching from the Barents and Kara seas near Siberia (which itself is unusually mild for this time of year) to the Chukchi Sea off the Alaskan coast.
These anomalous readings are reflected in the average temperature over the high Arctic (north of 80 degrees latitude), which has spiked in recent days, rising about 16 degrees (9C).
This unusually mild air mass is expected to stay in place for at least the next seven to 10 days, possibly longer, computer model projections show. A high-pressure area parked over the Central Arctic will also ensure clear skies, which is a key ingredient in warm season extreme melt events due to feedback loops involving melting snow and sea ice.
While sea ice melt tends to kick into gear in June, Scambos says the weather this week could cause the snowpack on top of the sea ice to “ripen” early in the season, which would cause the snow to get some liquid meltwater in it, lowering its reflectivity, or albedo, and absorbing more incoming solar energy. This would precondition the sea ice to more rapid and widespread melting earlier in the season, depending on the weather.
Thanks for posting that article, it makes sense and I agree with the conclusions on it. Compared to other years, I do not remember seeing everything be so clear...A good article indeed! I just don't agree with your conclusion, that this is "a sign of the slowing jet stream". I think this is a clear sign of global dimming, that is now taken away, giving us the full impact of global warming. A slowing of the jet stream is a consequence, not a cause!
Just a sign of the slowing jet stream when these large weather systems/patterns become stuck.
Thanks for posting that article, it makes sense and I agree with the conclusions on it. Compared to other years, I do not remember seeing everything be so clear...A good article indeed! I just don't agree with your conclusion, that this is "a sign of the slowing jet stream". I think this is a clear sign of global dimming, that is now taken away, giving us the full impact of global warming. A slowing of the jet stream is a consequence, not a cause!
Just a sign of the slowing jet stream when these large weather systems/patterns become stuck.
Oh, I meant that the conclusion makes sense insofar as an explanation to the regional clarity. I've noticed and commented on it, but I've only followed the ice closely since 2013, so what appears "new" to me has often been seen by others.That took to much effort to think about on a Friday night... ;D
Anyways, I get your point and agree with that - I just didn't articulate what I wanted to well. I should have said: As a result of the warming arctic and less temperature differentiation between the equator and north pole, weather systems get 'stuck' as an implication of a slowed, wavy jet stream; what we are witnessing now is a result and negative feedback of the damage already imparted on the system at large.
The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?I don't think the problem is the weather right now. I think the problem is that the weather will be like this all summer long...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/15/arctic-heat-wave-breaks-records/
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
I would think that besides the ~1/3 reduction in global aerosols (I could be grossly off o this # but I think it is reasonable), the 90% drop in air traffic is the biggest contributor to the lack of clouds. Or, the drop in air traffic at this point may be taking primacy even over the drop in aerosols. There was a study after 9/11 that showed a major rise in temperatures when air traffic halted. This is now being replicated much more severely across the entire planet.
...
Is this normal? ...
Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected. I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.
Of course it's not reliable, but GFS supposes Eurasia will lost much of its remaining snow by May 25. Also huge areas of the Beaufort, Chuckchi, ESS, Laptev sea ice will also lose snow what mean ice turning blue
Contrails are thought to have a net warming effect, particularly as they form more readily at night rather than day. Clouds keep the planet warm.
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.
The surface albedo over 2/3rds of the Arctic basin from the Eurasian side though the central Arctic basin maybe even touching the CAB.
<snip>
The models however after day 5-6 show benign cloudy cooler conditions with the warmth mostly confined to the Kara, laptev, and Atlantic side.
<snip>
You can see in the two images I posted that the albedo change has been extraordinary.
<snip>
We now know even in middle May. Well really early half of middle May the artic basin.
Amazing
May 11-15.
2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg199491.html#msg199491).
<snip> "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."
<snip> Watch this map.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp
... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early. In fact in ways, I think it is worse. All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.
What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.
Hunch: The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.
... or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite? ...
<snip> That's quite a big hole appearing North & West of Svalbard - the first significant damage to ice North of 80.And some of that area had large positive ice thickness anomalies before the May 10-13 winds pushing out through the Fram Strait.
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.
Watch this map.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp
... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early. In fact in ways, I think it is worse. All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.
What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.
Hunch: The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.
This presumes we don't have weather in mid season that blows things out even worse than they are rocketing towards currently.
(Edit: Note that in the next 5 days the model shows pretty much all the remaining land snow cover on the Eurasian side of the Arctic getting massacred. Things are going to get hot, early.)
Ditto ArcticMelt2, thanks for the WAPost article and also those ice thickness images. They could have spiced it up with some ASIF quotes from the Fabulous Friv. I think it is a credit to the ASIF that the experts quoted in the article didn't add to what has already been noted in greater detail in the forum. Good to see a major US press outlet paying attention to news that matters vs the latest ramblings of the mad King. Actually, the WAPost climate team led by Chris Mooney is among the best of all the major newspapers/magazines. Mooney even did a story about Neven and the ASIF back in 2016: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/30/he-created-a-beloved-blog-about-the-melting-arctic-but-it-got-harder-and-harder-to-write/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/30/he-created-a-beloved-blog-about-the-melting-arctic-but-it-got-harder-and-harder-to-write/)
Comparing the 2012, 2019 & 2020 sea ice thickness images, the one strength 2020 had was the thick ice near the Fram Strait. That is the very ice that was presumably pummeled by the warmth, sun, and WIND this week. 2012 and 2019 each had a long arm that may have impeded Arctic-wide rotation. 2020 lacks that structural brace. I don't know if Arctic-wide ice translocation is affected by the distribution of thick ice at that scale. The significance of that pattern could just be a visual figment of my imagination. (Or as Pete Walker said: a "Fig Newton of my immaculation")
The surface albedo over 2/3rds of the Arctic basin from the Eurasian side though the central Arctic basin maybe even touching the CAB.
<snip>
The models however after day 5-6 show benign cloudy cooler conditions with the warmth mostly confined to the Kara, laptev, and Atlantic side.
<snip>
You can see in the two images I posted that the albedo change has been extraordinary.
<snip>
We now know even in middle May. Well really early half of middle May the artic basin.
Amazing
Even with improving conditions in another week, I don't think the albedo on the peripheral seas is going to recover. With the warming projected around the same time on the Beaufort/Chukchi side, those seas will likely join the others. Any remaining ice in the Bering and Okhotsk will be erased, catching 2020 up with the events of the last 3 years in the Bering.
I am very concerned with these early enormous increases in the Arctic's heat budget.
...The real question is (and I'm sure Frivolous would have some good insight), how much will this high pressure system precondition the ice later in the summer?
That's what we're waiting to see. There's definitely going to be some significant extent drops over the next 7-10 days, but what matters more than anything else (re: extent/area minimum) is how much melt-ponding this system causes. We're (probably) fortunate this high pressure didn't hit 2-3 weeks later.
Watch this map.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/fcst/#gfs.arc-lea.snowd-mslp
... and we actually are not fortunate this is hitting early. In fact in ways, I think it is worse. All that disappearing snow on the pack is turning into sub-surface or surface melt ponds.
What's happening right now is we've extended the melt season about 4 weeks, from early June into early May.
Hunch: The 30cm line on May 20th may be a harbinger of our end of season extent this year.
This presumes we don't have weather in mid season that blows things out even worse than they are rocketing towards currently.
(Edit: Note that in the next 5 days the model shows pretty much all the remaining land snow cover on the Eurasian side of the Arctic getting massacred. Things are going to get hot, early.)
Would be interesting to see when land snow on Eurasian side has melted in years past.
Alright you bozos, i'm sorta back. Must comment on this one!
...
Is this normal? ...
Perhaps the reduced aerosols are contributing to the reduced cloud cover more than would be expected. I don't know much about the specifics there but maybe the relationship between aerosol density and cloud formation isn't linear or continuous.
But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.Friv, please divulge what is coming from the NA side. Atmo is not my strong point
Just an amazing start to this melt season
The hammer is being dropped on snowcover. It looks like there is also a lot of warmth in the NW of the continent, but this could be curtains for the remaining extant snow extent over Quebec / Nunavut. When that goes, there is going to be no barrier between continental airmasses and the CAA / Greenland, besides the ice in Hudson Bay, which is now losing albedo fairly quickly.But what it shows coming from the NA side is of most interest.Friv, please divulge what is coming from the NA side. Atmo is not my strong point
Just an amazing start to this melt season
Kara earning a place in the peripheral seas ? I always keep an eye on Kara as early losses here usually portend a serious melting season . Last year was a rare exception ; we are now a month ahead of 2019 , when there was a major stall , something that looks unlikely this year . .
Even after the comparatively cold winter , I too feel the ice is in serious trouble . While gfs and ecmwf are in near agreement to day 10 that the basin remains abnormally warm , gfs run to day 16 is even worse for the ice . Only the Lincoln sea looks safe from any melt before June .
From 3 days out temps below -4'C are sparse and with a Beaufort high encouraging the gyre and lows on the Eurasian side resulting in a dipole there should be more movement as well as melt . b.c.
<snip> "now we are seeing Swisscheesification of the entire Arctic ..."
Question 1: Do those dark areas really indicate low concentration ice or does the sensor get fooled by moisture in the air column between surface and satellite?
Long story short, the "big" thing in the room about aerosols-affecting-clouds - is simple: the more microscopic solid particles inside clouds - the more condensation locations are available; so, same amount of water vapour which particular cloud contains - ends up condensating into more droplets (than without aerosols present). More droplets from same amount of vapour means smaller droplets. Smaller droplets means less precipitation occurs = i.e., more of the cloud remains in the air.
I mentioned earlier that I belive that most of the cloud cover that ends up in the Arctic actually originates in the mid-latitudes, coinciding with the areas seeing the biggest fall in aerosols.
But is anybody actually seeing this effect - is there less cloud cover now than usual in the mid-latitudes? Or in the Northern Hemisphere?
wipneus regional extent and area (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional), kara, may15
edit: thanks bbr, and welcome back
Hardly any rain here (20 mm in 2 months, while average is 120 mm for 2 months) as well and lots of sunshine in March-April-May (basically since the lockdowns started). No proof of the lockdown-aerosol reduction effects, but I think there could be something to it. I have never seen so far, so clearly from our montaintop, I could see other mountains 2-300 kms away. Air was very clear and cloudless during the lockdowns. This is of course only anecdotal evidence but still...Thanks for sharing it. From such small bits, bigger picture forms.
wipneus regional extent and area (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional), kara, may15
edit: thanks bbr, and welcome back
No wonder.
The "dark areas" are of course also much more prominent than usual, or so we seem to think, but I think I've learned the lesson some time ago not to take those too literally. Althogh one does wonder if some sort of Bluecheesefication is underway as well?
Ice drift map. We have the whole ice pack rotating clockwise.Recent paper by Walt Meier et al found 10% per decade increase in ASI motion. The May 8-16 ice drift map seems like it will contribute to that trend, though I don't have any info on what the average ice drift at this time of year looks like. There are some long arrows in that image.
The two ITPs above show the temps further West/North however you want to look at it going above freezing.Please note that these are internal buoy temperatures for monitoring the equipment, not from an external sensor. It's likely that internal buoy temps will rise significantly above external air temps during long periods of sunshine.
May 13-17.Looking at your second animation, it looks like the entire ice pack got compacted by that giant high pressure system. Blumenkraft taught me that last season, that the ice pack tends to compact with HP systems, while LP systems tend to spread the ice out. And this clearly was proven again last week. I thought the clockwise rotation of the pack would fill up the ESS again, and it did a little, but mostly the ice was compacted towards the center, decreasing extent.
2019 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg199798.html#msg199798).
April 27 - May 17 (fast).
Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
The Kara sea will be getting a roasting in a few days from now, with the Laptev also getting its share of heat.
Positive temperatures for the Beaufort are also in the forecast.
The forecast for Fram exports looks good, with southerlies holding the ice back. But I've seen a possibility of that changing on the long term forecast.
Wind in the Bering strait will continue to come from the north until the end of the week, when a change in wind and temperature is expected.
I was under the impression from last weeks forecast that temperatures on the CAB would go down a little, but it seems they won't be dropping anytime soon.
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.
Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.
Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
I've compared these graphs already here just last week, and today I noticed on the data thread that 2006 was 6th in extent.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2020.png&hash=3f8f0ba1d1dea18e4733cf52b2e8ee08)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2006.png&hash=df98242153262a8f3301922eda8a77aa)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=149015;image)
Hot off NASA's presses, the current state of the sea ice in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas. Plus the (lack of?) snow cover across the adjacent land:Forgive my ignorance here, but is the explanation for the color changing from light orange to bright red and then back to orange (e.g. ESS along the coast between May 9th and 15th) simply surface melting and then re-freezing?
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/summer-2020-images/#ESS
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.
Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach the blue line any earlier than normal.I have a funny feeling that we'll see more extreme Eurasian heat waves penetrate deep into the CAB this year. But I also know that this goes against all common knowledge, that temps in the Arctic can only go above the green line when we have a BOE.
It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.
It appears to be tied to solar altitude
We are really close to the 2.5 months when Arctic basin surface temps remain around 0-2C all summer.True, but it looks like we'll be there a lot faster this year.
Melting really goes nuts and you reach full 24 hour periods of 1-2C and sun.
I've compared these graphs already here just last week, and today I noticed on the data thread that 2006 was 6th in extent.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2020.png&hash=3f8f0ba1d1dea18e4733cf52b2e8ee08)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2006.png&hash=df98242153262a8f3301922eda8a77aa)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2975.0;attach=149015;image)
Yeah it seems that way but unless we end up with a major dipole anomaly the last 10 days of May temps won't reach the blue line any earlier than normal.
It's really amazing how consistent it is during the summer.
It appears to be tied to solar altitude
2012 was the record low 2.25M.
2016 came in as a respectable 2nd with 2.45M.
is the explanation for the color changing from light orange to bright red and then back to orange (e.g. ESS along the coast between May 9th and 15th) simply surface melting and then re-freezing?
does surface melt earlier in the season have a mechanical impact on melt later in the season
2016 had early open water within the Arctic Ocean, and a lot of export into the Atlantic. It also had a string of powerful August cyclones, though not as effective as the 2012 GAC.
2016 had early open water within the Arctic Ocean, and a lot of export into the Atlantic. It also had a string of powerful August cyclones, though not as effective as the 2012 GAC.
RE long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chart+1
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869)
Thanks Stephan. I don't have the foresight to make Sept. predictions, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the upside anomaly in the current chart will fall back a lot closer to the long-term trend line when the May 2020 volume data are included.
After a very high maximum and a slow start to melting, the Central Seas (aka High Arctic) are losing area fast, and mostly in the Kara Sea (now lowest in the satellite record ).
This means SOLAR ALTITUDE just isn't high enough until the first week of June to overcome albedo.
This means we well have to see background temps warm likely another 2-4C around the ice in May and snow cover to vanish at least a week earlier than the current earliest before we see ice volume sustainably go lower than it already has.
This means a total melt out isn't likely until 2035-2040 or later
RE long-term arctic sea ice volume deviation chartThe statistics say that it is likely that Sep (and Jul, Aug, Oct) volume anomaly will be below the linear trend line. This has happened from 2009 on, with exceptions in 2015 and 2018. In those two years the volume anomaly was around the long term linear trend line.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2975.msg264869.html#msg264869)
Thanks Stephan. I don't have the foresight to make Sept. predictions, but I'd bet dollars to doughnuts that the upside anomaly in the current chart will fall back a lot closer to the long-term trend line when the May 2020 volume data are included.
I realize this measurement could be more accurate, but look at the size of this iceberg which was ejected out of the Fram. It made some rapid progress south and is now just floating off the eastern coast. I will continue to watch it until its eventual demise/That's larger than the state of Rhode Island
The snow melt vs 2019 has been very very bad. Wow.
(https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-6edb6cd04055.gif)
We are probably in for unprecedented conditions imminently. And massive summertime wildfires across the areas that have played host to largest + departures / early snowmelt across Eurasia.
Alas, just go to this link & scroll between 2020->2019.The snow melt vs 2019 has been very very bad. Wow.
(https://im2.ezgif.com/tmp/ezgif-2-6edb6cd04055.gif)
We are probably in for unprecedented conditions imminently. And massive summertime wildfires across the areas that have played host to largest + departures / early snowmelt across Eurasia.
BBR the image link is broken, can you please resubmit?
I realize this measurement could be more accurate, but look at the size of this iceberg which was ejected out of the Fram. It made some rapid progress south and is now just floating off the eastern coast. I will continue to watch it until its eventual demise/
The Laptev, Kara, and Barents should all be near 0 by 6/30 or earlier. I would imagine that would be a first?The Barents is always near 0 by June 30th. The Kara could conceivably get near 0 by that date, seeing as it started early. I will go on record here to claim there is zero probability of the Laptev doing so, regardless of what Hycom may indicate.
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia
By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.
It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia
Welcome Butterflyy.
This theory is best discussed elsewhere. Note that its more extreme version (the "Quebec reglaciation") has been promoted all over the forum by a certain user and is frowned upon by the new moderator. 8)
Dikson Island (Kara) had new highest of May, +11.1°C. Dew point was above +6°C.
Dikson Island (Kara) had new highest of May, +11.1°C. Dew point was above +6°C.
It has been quite an exceptional warm up across that part of the world, less snowcover means more heat and so on and so forth but even so, the lack of snowcover for this time of year is quite exceptional.
This means SOLAR ALTITUDE just isn't high enough until the first week of June to overcome albedo.
This means we well have to see background temps warm likely another 2-4C around the ice in May and snow cover to vanish at least a week earlier than the current earliest before we see ice volume sustainably go lower than it already has.
This means a total melt out isn't likely until 2035-2040 or later
Interesting idea. Wouldn't the amount of cloud cover and melt ponds during the period of roughly late May to the third week of July be more significant factors that determine higher latitude melt out, rather than air temperature? Mainly by increasing the amount of solar energy that gets through the ice and then does most of the overall melting by bottom melt. I was under the impression that bottom melt did a larger proportion of the melting over the course of the melt season, rather than warmer air over the ice. My assumption is that lot more energy is transferred into the system from sunlight into water than is transferred in via warm air over ice.
Maybe I'm misreading what you're saying? Maybe you're saying that we need 2-4C temperature increase in order to achieve early enough preconditioning and melt ponds to allow enough solar energy through the ice to achieve total melt out above 80 degN?
If so, a normal summer until then would see ice melt rapidly at lower latitudes, but generally stall around 70-80 degN?
Unless there is an unusually sunny period between the last week of May and the third week of July, in that case the melt out might go a lot further north.
This is outside of my comfort zone to post about, but I'm sort of surprised by the lack of talk about the 00Z GFS forecast over the next 7 days. Starting Saturday we see above zero Avg. temperatures start to creep in over the Beaufort, the Laptev and the Kara, and then it just keeps coming.It's not 100% reliable but the GFS snow depth forecast supposes the massive meltponding in the inner basin even before June is starting. One can see on the Worldview how quickly the land snow melts each day in northern Siberia
By the 28th almost the whole arctic (excepting the CAA) is at or above 0 avg temperature.
Solar altitude doesn't get high enough to overcome the snow albedo effect until the first week of June.
The combined NSIDC sea ice area in the Beaufort and Chukchi is 1,585k km2. At this time last year, was 1,317k km2.
The Pacific side is clearly presenting a larger buffer to penetration of some areas where ice is most likely to remain at seasons end (N. Beaufort, N. CAA and western CAB).
I'm keeping my eye on the deep CAB boundary on the Siberian and Atlantic sides as the keys to this season. There is already open water at the boundary line ~ 82N north of FJL. When / where will the open water penetrate into the deep CAB?
edit: while acknowledging the difficulties associated with setting a season end minimum record in 2020, there's a good likelihood of setting the pace with date records in June, July and early August. We're approaching the portion of the calendar where 2016 lost momentum.
VAK, parts of your post are very off-topic here. Some belong in "When will the Arctic go ice-free", "Geoengineering", "Archaeology/Paleontology news". As this is a rare occurrence I will let it stand, but more such posts will have to be moved/edited/deleted,
Beaufort Sea yesterday, greyscale linear contrast to show floe characteristics. https://go.nasa.gov/2zUX3MRthere is a torrid downslope coming to the Beaufort.
click for full resolution
We don't know what is going to happen in June but so far we are likely going into June in best modern set up to ravage the inner Arctic basin.
there is a torrid downslope coming to the Beaufort.
<snip>
Assuming heights and winds come as forecasted the factor deciding how things will play out is how much sun will be accompanying the WAA downslope.
We don't know what is going to happen in June but so far we are likely going into June in best modern set up to ravage the inner Arctic basin.
I guess that's a matter of opinion. 2012 and 2016 had very weak freezing seasons which preceded them and set the stage with thinner ice. By comparison, 2020 was a much better freezing season. Hoping for a mid-May PIOMAS volume update which gives us a better idea of thickness.
We don't know what is going to happen in June but so far we are likely going into June in best modern set up to ravage the inner Arctic basin.
I guess that's a matter of opinion. 2012 and 2016 had very weak freezing seasons which preceded them and set the stage with thinner ice. By comparison, 2020 was a much better freezing season. Hoping for a mid-May PIOMAS volume update which gives us a better idea of thickness.
there is a torrid downslope coming to the Beaufort.
<snip>
Assuming heights and winds come as forecasted the factor deciding how things will play out is how much sun will be accompanying the WAA downslope.
Friv, I am very grateful for how much more work you are putting into explaining things to us footlings trying to follow your soaring flight.
But I'm still at loss sometimes. What is a downslope, and what do you mean by "WAA"?