Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: Neven on March 25, 2020, 02:55:02 PM

Title: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 25, 2020, 02:55:02 PM
What lessons can be learned from COVID-19, and how might they impact policy and solutions with regard to AGW?

A picture says more than a 1000 words:

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ESTF50HXYAYVFUn?format=png&name=small)

Two pictures say more than 2000 words:

(https://media.greenmatters.com/brand-img/mMy095eGr/0x0/coronavirus-italy-no2-1584131426505.png)

Lessons can be learned from a crisis, when the causes of the crisis are understood. So, what caused the impact of COVID-19? I believe the causes are two-fold:

1) Of, course the disease itself. Although no one can say with certainty how the disease came into being, it is clear that it could rapidly spread itself around the world due to globalisation. Globalisation is caused by neoliberal policies, predicated on neoclassic economic theories of endless growth. These policies cause the outsourcing of jobs, planet-wide shipments of goods and mass tourism.
2) The context in which the disease can successfully cause lots of casualties. Due to neoliberal policies, industries like Big Oil and Big Auto have caused massive air pollution, severely impacting lung development and health, which is obviously ideal for the respiratory diseases caused by COVID-19. The same neoliberal policies have also given free rein to industries like Big Pharma, Big Agro, Big Sugar, Big Tobacco to parasitically extract profit from the health of the general population.

In my view, there are two options after the crisis is over:

1) Treating the symptoms: Manufacturing vaccines and medications, developing plans for mass surveillance, massive bail-outs that benefit large corporations and further enslave populations. This will naturally lead to zero structural changes to the status quo, and future crises will be assured, instead of mitigated and prevented.
2) Taking away the causes: Putting an end to and reverting neoliberal policies, by switching to alternative economic theories that are more in line with laws of nature and universal moral principles. Given the goal of these neoliberal policies, ie endlessly increasing and concentrating wealth, this wealth will fight extremely hard to prevent any change to the status quo. An additional problem is the decade-long cultural condition of a heavily addicted and perverted majority of the population.

What lessons will be learned?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 25, 2020, 04:51:41 PM
Lessons on living, and the transition to what will come.

That Discomfort You’re Feeling Is Grief
Quote
Some of the HBR edit staff met virtually the other day — a screen full of faces in a scene becoming more common everywhere. We talked about the content we’re commissioning in this harrowing time of a pandemic and how we can help people. But we also talked about how we were feeling. One colleague mentioned that what she felt was grief. Heads nodded in all the panes.

If we can name it, perhaps we can manage it. We turned to David Kessler for ideas on how to do that. Kessler is the world’s foremost expert on grief. He co-wrote with Elisabeth Kübler-Ross On Grief and Grieving: Finding the Meaning of Grief through the Five Stages of Loss. His new book adds another stage to the process, Finding Meaning: The Sixth Stage of Grief. Kessler also has worked for a decade in a three-hospital system in Los Angeles. He served on their biohazard’s team. His volunteer work includes being an LAPD Specialist Reserve for traumatic events as well as having served on the Red Cross’s disaster services team. He is the founder of www.grief.com which has over 5 million visits yearly from 167 countries.

Kessler shared his thoughts on why it’s important to acknowledge the grief you may be feeling, how to manage it, and how he believes we will find meaning in it. The conversation is lightly edited for clarity.
HBR: People are feeling any number of things right now. Is it right to call some of what they’re feeling grief?
Kessler: Yes, and we’re feeling a number of different griefs. We feel the world has changed, and it has. We know this is temporary, but it doesn’t feel that way, and we realize things will be different. Just as going to the airport is forever different from how it was before 9/11, things will change and this is the point at which they changed. The loss of normalcy; the fear of economic toll; the loss of connection. This is hitting us and we’re grieving. Collectively. We are not used to this kind of collective grief in the air.

You said we’re feeling more than one kind of grief?
Yes, we’re also feeling anticipatory grief. Anticipatory grief is that feeling we get about what the future holds when we’re uncertain. Usually it centers on death. We feel it when someone gets a dire diagnosis or when we have the normal thought that we’ll lose a parent someday. Anticipatory grief is also more broadly imagined futures. There is a storm coming. There’s something bad out there. With a virus, this kind of grief is so confusing for people. Our primitive mind knows something bad is happening, but you can’t see it. This breaks our sense of safety. We’re feeling that loss of safety. I don’t think we’ve collectively lost our sense of general safety like this. Individually or as smaller groups, people have felt this. But all together, this is new. We are grieving on a micro and a macro level.

One particularly troubling aspect of this pandemic is the open-endedness of it.
This is a temporary state. It helps to say it. I worked for 10 years in the hospital system. I’ve been trained for situations like this. I’ve also studied the 1918 flu pandemic. The precautions we’re taking are the right ones. History tells us that. This is survivable. We will survive. This is a time to overprotect but not overreact.
 
And, I believe we will find meaning in it. I’ve been honored that Elisabeth Kübler-Ross’s family has given me permission to add a sixth stage to grief: Meaning. I had talked to Elisabeth quite a bit about what came after acceptance. I did not want to stop at acceptance when I experienced some personal grief. I wanted meaning in those darkest hours. And I do believe we find light in those times. Even now people are realizing they can connect through technology. They are not as remote as they thought. They are realizing they can use their phones for long conversations. They’re appreciating walks. I believe we will continue to find meaning now and when this is over. …
https://hbr.org/2020/03/that-discomfort-youre-feeling-is-grief
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 25, 2020, 05:07:14 PM
“The separation of health and environmental policy is a ​dangerous delusion. Our health entirely depends on the climate and the other organisms we share the planet with.”

Coronavirus: 'Nature is sending us a message’, says UN environment chief
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-nature-is-sending-us-a-message-says-un-environment-chief
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: P-maker on March 25, 2020, 05:54:07 PM
Neven,

Thank you for opening this thread. May I suggest you change the title to: Learnings from..., since in these days of home schooling at all levels all over the World, it is not really about lessons, but more about learning collectively.

Having one leg in each camp ( my wife as been at home with live video meetings all week ), I can say that Big Pharma is also trying to get through this crisis together with the rest of us. However, they do not see it as the end of the Neoliberal regime yet. They still have confidence that they are doing something good in order to help society get through this crisis

I also flagged those two images you selected to my wife. However my comment was: Does N2O emissions have anything to do with human vulnerability or susceptability to Corona virus? Seeing the Wuhan province and northern Italy clear up after these incidents, made me think that N2O may not be the best thing to give to women giving birth.

In this country, we are currently discussing whether pregnant women are vulnerable or not.

My suggestion would be that we try to clear up the facts (e.g. on the effect of N2O) before we try to change the system).
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 25, 2020, 05:56:46 PM
On a very general level we saw that people mostly ignored the science. This sounds familiar. Even on this short time frame people can´t imagine the logical consequences of ´todays data´ + what we know about the virus and humans.

The sad thing is that a virus is just a virus. Over time they basically always evolve to become more benign because those infections spread more. Even if we did nothing the problem would be self limiting because people would be immune or dead with the dead concentrating in higher age groups with pre-existing conditions.

This is not possible with global warming.

It will make every ones live a lot more complicated then it needs to be to put it mildly. Yes you can move out of cities that are both too hot and have a failing water supply but you are going to end up with more refugees somewhere.

The important lesson is plan for the future.

Everyone wants to slow walk their efforts to solve this and try to be competative be we really cannot afford that.

Basically the big historical polluters have an obligation to help the rest of the world transition quicker but most don´t think that way.

Everyone wants to drag things out while that makes our problems worse.

We are losing carbon sinks rapidly (arctic permafrost is a net emitter and the Amazon is on the verge of death).

We need so much more action on greenhouse gasses, soils and water. It would be worth giving up a piece of our western consumer wealth for it. Especially if you have kids and grandkids that you don´t hate.

The problem is that many people are in this bubble where you work, buy stuff etc. And then you vote for some figurehead on some big issue while the whole political system is just playing us. The ones with stakes have direct lobbying access (and pre write laws) while there is always some social program that can be sacrificed.

We could have a much better world society if we were more inclusive but everyone is playing their own game. I remember these development models which worked for Europe but not for Africa. And there is a reason for that. There was another theory about centre and periphery and off course that became a global thing. Read Moneyland for some depressing insights.

They will keep peddling symptom stuff until the public does not take that any longer but how quick that will be... for some reason you will have a small but non negligible chance to die next year promotes more hands on action then live will be hell for our kids. This kind of irks me.

There is no immunity to global warming.

Take away lesson: prevention rocks.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: be cause on March 25, 2020, 06:01:05 PM
at this stage ? That govt's should follow ASIF and act ! ..b.c.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 25, 2020, 06:02:31 PM
My suggestion would be that we try to clear up the facts (e.g. on the effect of N2O) before we try to change the system).

It just gives nice pictures and thus functions as a proxy for all kinds of polutions not emitted.

Why would you not want to change the system? (project currect trjectory etc)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: harpy on March 25, 2020, 06:23:35 PM
We're not going to return to the previous state of the world, this virus has permanently changed society.

We have reduced emissions quite a bit at this point, and the people with the most power know this and will not let economic activity resume.

At some point, the human death rate will exceed the birth rate, and our species will begin its decline towards extinction.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 25, 2020, 06:45:00 PM
If you listen to Trump f.e. he seems to want to resume economic activity asap.

Also this disease is not going to make a big difference (mostly old people die) but global warming will render whole parts of the planet unliveable. Those people are going to move.

And basically we are on a path to multiple failures. If today looks like a mess you should see 2050 on todays trajectory.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 25, 2020, 06:46:16 PM
We will treat the symptoms.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Aporia_filia on March 25, 2020, 08:59:45 PM
Some people already have all the answers  :o  ::)

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/24/trump-cabinet-bible-studies-coronavirus/

RALPH DROLLINGER, a minister who leads a weekly Bible study group for President Donald Trump’s cabinet, released a new interpretation of the coronavirus pandemic this week, arguing that the crisis represents an act of God’s judgment.
“Relative to the coronavirus pandemic crisis, this is not God’s abandonment wrath nor His cataclysmic wrath, rather it is sowing and reaping wrath,” wrote Drollinger. “A biblically astute evaluation of the situation strongly suggests that America and other countries of the world are reaping what China has sown due to their leaders’ recklessness and lack of candor and transparency.”
Neither does he miss a chance to condemn those who worship the “religion of environmentalism” and express a “proclivity toward lesbianism and homosexuality.” These individuals, Drollinger argues in “Is God Judging America Today?”, one of the minister’s posts about coronavirus pandemic, have infiltrated “high positions in our government, our educational system, our media and our entertainment industry” and “are largely responsible for God’s consequential wrath on our nation.”
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on March 25, 2020, 10:37:25 PM
^^
Will organized religion see a resurgence in the time of CO19, or will religionists be seen as charlitans when they and their followers show no particular resistance to the virus?


This could be an important result no matter the outcome.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 25, 2020, 10:49:58 PM
I couldn’t venture a guess without knowing how food infrastructure holds up. If we go into a depression and food supply issues panic the public the lesson learned will burn far deeper into our collective conscience . Maybe we will hoard and prep like 1929 depression survivors did ?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on March 25, 2020, 10:55:18 PM
Lesson 1 : "It's the economy, stupid".
Fed QE + Govt fiscal stimulus reassures the market.
Saw a headline on Bloomberg TV - Qu4 2020 / Qu1 2021 could be boom times (for Stock prices)

Lesson 2 : The same bunch of people are in charge
Trump gets a phone call from some investors.
Suddenly the campaign starts to restart the economy before Easter.
Watch the CDC being shoved sideways in the next week or two?

Lesson 3 : "It's the economy, stupid" and don't you forget it.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on March 25, 2020, 10:59:15 PM
There is also a possitive thing. The wild goose are arriving. And normaly they stay far from the road. But because there is almost no traffic. They just sit next to the road. They have the time of their live.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on March 26, 2020, 04:12:39 AM
I hope the lesson from the COVID-19 debacle will be that it's better to listen to scientists, and that pessimistic projections could well be true, and that ignoring them could risk your life. If people understand that on an intuitive level, maybe treatment of AGW (and changing the system that inevitably leads to it) could have more support. I am really hopeful this lesson will take hold in parts of the population.

Another lesson could be to elect able leaders, rather than narcissistic idiots who would bury us all alive just for reelection and getting the stock market back up. When they say "What have you got to lose??" well you got lots to lose and now you know it. But I doubt this lesson takes hold.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on March 26, 2020, 06:31:42 AM
The communist party has a big responsability in this. Even the day before the lockdown in Wuhan the official point was "no human to human transmission" . Even after the doctors told them weeks before that there was human to human transmission. Than the WHO would probably have sounded the alarm much faster.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on March 26, 2020, 06:59:20 AM
On the other hand, even today airports are still open. Not many people anymore, but still open.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 26, 2020, 09:40:38 AM
The number one lesson should be that we as a civilization are not immune (sic) to the surrounding environment. Despite all our advanced technology, complex infrastructure and organized societies we have not completely conquered nature and will not to do so in the foreseeable future.

The number two lesson is that risky behavior in regards to environment will have it's consequences. In case of infectious disease the biggest risk comes from industrial animal farming and in this particular case irresponsible handling of wildlife. In case of AGW it is fossil fuel use but we mustn't neglect other issues such as biodiversity loss, land use and runaway nitrogen cycle. They all have consequences.

The lesson number three is that it is always cheaper and easier to prevent a crisis than to clean the mess. If a crisis cannot be prevented, it must be stopped swiftly an efficiently. after many close calls COVID-19 became a pandemic because first it wasn't stopped before starting an outbreak in Wuhan, then it narrowly escaped China and eventually countries such as Italy and Iran failed to stop the initial outbreak. This is where we able and responsible leaders and scientifically lead competent institutions come into play.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 09:48:48 AM
The communist party has a big responsability in this.

You, as an outspoken trump supporter, have the guts to blame the Chinese leadership? Seriously?

China took the most rigorous actions in an attempt to contain this, buying the west time to react, while your beloved orange manchild was ignorantly throwing away this headstart by actively sabotaging the development of testing methods (to name only one of his multiple failures). And still, you have the guts to blame China?

A lesson i learned in all this is just how stupid some humans can be.
 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on March 26, 2020, 10:07:44 AM
^^
Ramen!!
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Hefaistos on March 26, 2020, 11:30:29 AM
A good laugh will improve your immunity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mP-mCfo4-f8&feature=youtu.be&t=249
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 11:44:34 AM
When i see this, i can only wonder how many people got infected in this huge crowd.  :-[
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 11:45:30 AM
The communist party has a big responsability in this. Even the day before the lockdown in Wuhan the official point was "no human to human transmission" . Even after the doctors told them weeks before that there was human to human transmission. Than the WHO would probably have sounded the alarm much faster.
You know, if the CCP had put the lockdown in place the first day they knew of the virus, we would not have these threads on this forum.  Now, all those ten year predictions I read January 1 have been tossed into a crock hat before the first year was one quarter over and I am having dreams that my hair grows as long as a bridal veil because all the barbershops are closed.
Think we will learn never to downplay an outbreak again?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 12:19:00 PM
You know, if the CCP had put the lockdown in place the first day they knew of the virus, we would not have these threads on this forum.

First, we don't know that, Tom. This virus spreads so fast, even a faster reaction time would have only bought a little more time. Like days. The moment they knew what it was, they reacted. No other country in the world reacted that fast and rigorously.

Second, what do you expect? That they know the R0, the symptoms, the death rate, the correct measures to put in place, all that stuff from day one? How could anyone possibly know all that by just knowing there is something new?

Which society/government in the world is clairvoyant enough to see the future and react in the absolute correct manner at day one? You need to react on all levels of society, at the exact time this thing is seen the first time to achieve that. How would this even be possible?

In Italy, apparently people died from COVID-19 as early as November. They attributed it to natural deaths because the age group who dies from this virus was so similar to the age group in which people die. It is not surprising they didn't immediately attribute it to a new form of a virus, because in Italy, there was also no psychic doctors! So, will you blame them as well? Or why do you want it from China only?

If you really need to blame someone, blame the guy who dismissed early intelligence reports laying out exactly what will happen, who dismissed all experts, who actively sabotaged the doctors and scientists who fight this, who sends people to death because his hotels and golf courses lose money.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 26, 2020, 12:26:20 PM

You know, if the CCP had put the lockdown in place the first day they knew of the virus, we would not have these threads on this forum. 

That isn't remotely true.  As soon as a handful of people were infected, possibly even before any of them were sick, the die was cast.  It's a contagious virus, with days of asymptomatic spread before illness is apparent.  This epidemic could not possibly have been contained. 

China made a few missteps, but most of their response has been laudable.  There were published reports of an odd pneumonia before the cause was identified.  They quickly identified the virus as a novel coronavirus, and publicized this finding.  They very quickly determined the genetic sequence and published the information.  The world watched as Wuhan was put under the strictest quarantine in human history.  China bought the world weeks of time to prepare.  Most of the world utterly squandered that precious time.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 26, 2020, 12:40:43 PM
What I also find interesting, is how governments suddenly are willing to put screeching brakes on the economy, and print money for whatever is deemed necessary. But when it's about protecting the environment, mitigating AGW, universal basic income, or, in the US, providing affordable/free health care as a human right, free college, livable wages, and so on, the answer is always: How ya gonna pay for that? How ya gonna pay for that? From both the right and the fake left.

It'll be interesting to see how the current crisis will affect that conversation. Too bad Bernie Sanders has already been cheated out of the nomination.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 26, 2020, 12:53:21 PM
One thing to take home from this is that it will be lot more difficult to de facto AGW deniers to say we cannot reduce emissions because of the economy. It’s obvious we can, the question is if we want to.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 12:54:37 PM
IMHO, the only thing that could have reasonably contained the virus would have been to suspend all air traffic and all tourism worldwide from the day China announced there was this new SARS virus. In this case, new cases outside China could have easily been tracked down to individuals. These individuals then could have been quarantined consequently (South Korea approach).

Next time a new kind of virus pops up, the world must do this. Without hesitation! Completely ignoring economic or social problems involved with such a measure.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 26, 2020, 01:57:22 PM
In fact China was very quick to ban all Chinese citizens from travelling to destinations outside China. So even though we can with hindsight (it’s so easy to do things with hindsight) say that the only place to contain the outbreak was at origin in Wuhan, it’s unfair to say the Chinese didn’t do enough. They did everything in their power once they realized what they were dealing with.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 26, 2020, 02:07:10 PM
Learn to care, and take action, when a study says you will fail miserably at something important?

The months-long U.S. government exercise in 2019 simulated a pandemic and how the government would react.
Result:  THE U.S IS HIGHLY UNPREPARED FOR A PANDEMIC.
Trump admin:  Meh.

Trump Administration Failed Dry Run ‘Crimson Contagion’ Pandemic Exercise
The 2019 simulation exposed underfunding, muddled leadership and equipment shortages that have plagued the U.S. coronavirus response.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/crimson-contagion-exercise-trump-administration-failures_n_5e744105c5b6eab7794560e6
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 26, 2020, 02:56:03 PM
I am sure Li Wenliang is glad they immediately took him seriously.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on March 26, 2020, 02:56:37 PM
You know, if the CCP had put the lockdown in place the first day they knew of the virus, we would not have these threads on this forum.

First, we don't know that, Tom. This virus spreads so fast, even a faster reaction time would have only bought a little more time. Like days. The moment they knew what it was, they reacted. No other country in the world reacted that fast and rigorously.

Second, what do you expect? That they know the R0, the symptoms, the death rate, the correct measures to put in place, all that stuff from day one? How could anyone possibly know all that by just knowing there is something new?

Which society/government in the world is clairvoyant enough to see the future and react in the absolute correct manner at day one? You need to react on all levels of society, at the exact time this thing is seen the first time to achieve that. How would this even be possible?

In Italy, apparently people died from COVID-19 as early as November. They attributed it to natural deaths because the age group who dies from this virus was so similar to the age group in which people die. It is not surprising they didn't immediately attribute it to a new form of a virus, because in Italy, there was also no psychic doctors! So, will you blame them as well? Or why do you want it from China only?

If you really need to blame someone, blame the guy who dismissed early intelligence reports laying out exactly what will happen, who dismissed all experts, who actively sabotaged the doctors and scientists who fight this, who sends people to death because his hotels and golf courses lose money.

  If people were already dying in november in Italy. Than why was Wuhan overrun much faster than Italy ? <snip, can you guys organise some boxing match somewhere? N.>
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Alexander555 on March 26, 2020, 02:59:51 PM

You know, if the CCP had put the lockdown in place the first day they knew of the virus, we would not have these threads on this forum. 

That isn't remotely true.  As soon as a handful of people were infected, possibly even before any of them were sick, the die was cast.  It's a contagious virus, with days of asymptomatic spread before illness is apparent.  This epidemic could not possibly have been contained. 

China made a few missteps, but most of their response has been laudable.  There were published reports of an odd pneumonia before the cause was identified.  They quickly identified the virus as a novel coronavirus, and publicized this finding.  They very quickly determined the genetic sequence and published the information.  The world watched as Wuhan was put under the strictest quarantine in human history.  China bought the world weeks of time to prepare.  Most of the world utterly squandered that precious time.

The die was cast ? So you are saying that they could not have managed it better better when there were only a few cases. But now there are 80 000 it's possible.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 26, 2020, 03:23:39 PM
Here's a Financial Times article (https://www.ft.com/content/19d90308-6858-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcca75?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6) by Yuval Noah Harari that has some interesting points that I've selected:

Quote
Yuval Noah Harari: the world after coronavirus | Free to read
This storm will pass. But the choices we make now could change our lives for years to come

(...)

We must act quickly and decisively. We should also take into account the long-term consequences of our actions. When choosing between alternatives, we should ask ourselves not only how to overcome the immediate threat, but also what kind of world we will inhabit once the storm passes. Yes, the storm will pass, humankind will survive, most of us will still be alive — but we will inhabit a different world.

(...)

In this time of crisis, we face two particularly important choices. The first is between totalitarian surveillance and citizen empowerment. The second is between nationalist isolation and global solidarity.

(...)

In their battle against the coronavirus epidemic several governments have already deployed the new surveillance tools. The most notable case is China. By closely monitoring people’s smartphones, making use of hundreds of millions of face-recognising cameras, and obliging people to check and report their body temperature and medical condition, the Chinese authorities can not only quickly identify suspected coronavirus carriers, but also track their movements and identify anyone they came into contact with. A range of mobile apps warn citizens about their proximity to infected patients. 

This kind of technology is not limited to east Asia. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel recently authorised the Israel Security Agency to deploy surveillance technology normally reserved for battling terrorists to track coronavirus patients. When the relevant parliamentary subcommittee refused to authorise the measure, Netanyahu rammed it through with an “emergency decree”.

You might argue that there is nothing new about all this. In recent years both governments and corporations have been using ever more sophisticated technologies to track, monitor and manipulate people. Yet if we are not careful, the epidemic might nevertheless mark an important watershed in the history of surveillance. Not only because it might normalise the deployment of mass surveillance tools in countries that have so far rejected them, but even more so because it signifies a dramatic transition from “over the skin” to “under the skin” surveillance. 

Hitherto, when your finger touched the screen of your smartphone and clicked on a link, the government wanted to know what exactly your finger was clicking on. But with coronavirus, the focus of interest shifts. Now the government wants to know the temperature of your finger and the blood-pressure under its skin. 

(...)

As a thought experiment, consider a hypothetical government that demands that every citizen wears a biometric bracelet that monitors body temperature and heart-rate 24 hours a day. The resulting data is hoarded and analysed by government algorithms. The algorithms will know that you are sick even before you know it, and they will also know where you have been, and who you have met. The chains of infection could be drastically shortened, and even cut altogether. Such a system could arguably stop the epidemic in its tracks within days. Sounds wonderful, right?

The downside is, of course, that this would give legitimacy to a terrifying new surveillance system. If you know, for example, that I clicked on a Fox News link rather than a CNN link, that can teach you something about my political views and perhaps even my personality. But if you can monitor what happens to my body temperature, blood pressure and heart-rate as I watch the video clip, you can learn what makes me laugh, what makes me cry, and what makes me really, really angry. 

It is crucial to remember that anger, joy, boredom and love are biological phenomena just like fever and a cough. The same technology that identifies coughs could also identify laughs. If corporations and governments start harvesting our biometric data en masse, they can get to know us far better than we know ourselves, and they can then not just predict our feelings but also manipulate our feelings and sell us anything they want — be it a product or a politician. Biometric monitoring would make Cambridge Analytica’s data hacking tactics look like something from the Stone Age. Imagine North Korea in 2030, when every citizen has to wear a biometric bracelet 24 hours a day. If you listen to a speech by the Great Leader and the bracelet picks up the tell-tale signs of anger, you are done for.

(...)

Even when infections from coronavirus are down to zero, some data-hungry governments could argue they needed to keep the biometric surveillance systems in place because they fear a second wave of coronavirus, or because there is a new Ebola strain evolving in central Africa, or because . . . you get the idea. A big battle has been raging in recent years over our privacy. The coronavirus crisis could be the battle’s tipping point. For when people are given a choice between privacy and health, they will usually choose health.

(...)

But to achieve such a level of compliance and co-operation, you need trust. People need to trust science, to trust public authorities, and to trust the media. Over the past few years, irresponsible politicians have deliberately undermined trust in science, in public authorities and in the media. Now these same irresponsible politicians might be tempted to take the high road to authoritarianism, arguing that you just cannot trust the public to do the right thing. 

Normally, trust that has been eroded for years cannot be rebuilt overnight. But these are not normal times. In a moment of crisis, minds too can change quickly. You can have bitter arguments with your siblings for years, but when some emergency occurs, you suddenly discover a hidden reservoir of trust and amity, and you rush to help one another. Instead of building a surveillance regime, it is not too late to rebuild people’s trust in science, in public authorities and in the media. We should definitely make use of new technologies too, but these technologies should empower citizens. I am all in favour of monitoring my body temperature and blood pressure, but that data should not be used to create an all-powerful government. Rather, that data should enable me to make more informed personal choices, and also to hold government accountable for its decisions. 

If I could track my own medical condition 24 hours a day, I would learn not only whether I have become a health hazard to other people, but also which habits contribute to my health. And if I could access and analyse reliable statistics on the spread of coronavirus, I would be able to judge whether the government is telling me the truth and whether it is adopting the right policies to combat the epidemic. Whenever people talk about surveillance, remember that the same surveillance technology can usually be used not only by governments to monitor individuals — but also by individuals to monitor governments.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 26, 2020, 03:25:51 PM
For those who haven't seen it, here's a re-post of this Naomi Klein video, writer of the Shock Doctrine. Every shock is abused by governments to fast-forward policies that serve the interests of concentrated wealth, at the expense of the entire population:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=niwNTI9Nqd8
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 26, 2020, 05:15:17 PM
Another takeaway from all this could (IMHO should) be that when facing a potential threat, in order to protect lives, governments should overreact rather than waiting for things to develop for too long.

I mean, any expert warned for decades a global pandemic would come sooner or later. Why hasn't there be reserve ICU facilities? Why do hospitals run on low PPE stock? Why isn't there already a 'stop all air-traffic' switch in place? etc

Many of us wish for this in the face of climate change for >30 years...

Of course, i don't mean military spending when i call for addressing potential threats.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 26, 2020, 06:50:22 PM
I will say it once again but a pandemic will wane. You might have lots of deaths but more survivors.

We really need to stop BAU and fight climate change like this disease.

Some things need to be moderated like local shops could open but maybe we really should do things differently. Price in the carbon costs on anything (so people will buy less useless shit). Promote a universal loader for all the ephone and tablet crap and no planned redundancy.

Take out all the easy to eliminate point sources that have existing solutions.
Stop wasting money running fracking crap for economical warfare.
Build local grids everywhere and what we need beyond that (but not in nature reserves ffs).
Stop free market crap and make sustainable things. This also means paying a fair share to local producers and to those making exotic things far away like chocolate.

If we were serious about GW we could make a list of industry we need and crap we don´t really need.

But we get this talk circus but no real action. The extra carbon needs to go to zero.

Also there is global warming but also the decline of water tables/aquifers rampant pollution and soil degradation.
 
If i was 18 i would so wonder how people thought this current state was ok.


 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 26, 2020, 06:59:17 PM
It appears to me that, no matter what your 'politics', they are confirmed by your experience of this pandemic.  Left, Right, Extreme, Moderate, Undeveloped, Disinterested:  no change, by and large.

Bernie is still the savior or still a distraction.  Donald is still great or still a simpleton.  Communism is bad, bad, bad or the Chinese did what nobody else could do or something in between. 

Or have you heard anybody say, "Oh my, I was clearly wrong all along.  Please forgive me!"?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on March 27, 2020, 05:12:23 AM
Let us think more about the world wide population and all of living nature when discussing economics and energy policies and the future. Let us think more long term and all-inclusive.

This pandemic shows that we are all in the same boat and should help each other.
Especially in times of crises. The main crises are AGW/Biosphere collapse.

This pandemic tells us that 'our' main focus should be on (other) humans and not on the economy/finance.
Let us seriously analyse and rethink the evil dogma of Neoliberalism.

Let us stop with the dogmatic focus on growth. Let us rethink long term solutions. Take the reins away from commercial enterprise.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 27, 2020, 10:59:59 AM
Harari's FT article linked here by Neven gives a wider perspective to the pandemic.

I'm starting to feel the crisis became global largely due to breakdown of international cooperation and leadership in the Trump-Brexit-Populist era.

When nations only look after their narrow short term interest they become incapable of handling cross-border issues such as COVID-19 or AGW. Instead of tackling the problem we see a blame game between the US and China and the lack of cooperation in the EU while China and Russia are scoring goodwill points with highly public relief efforts.

This is nothing new of course, but COVID-19 is a concrete example what our new normal means in practice. The inevitable economic crisis that follows is likely to worsen the situation. Economic protectionism and decrease in international trade and commerce is a near certainty but I wouldn't rule out total breakdown of the European Union and wars between nations somewhere around the globe. Emission reduction will be impossible when nations resort to local, usually fossil, energy reserves.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 27, 2020, 12:42:52 PM
If anyone thinks that the economy will be sacrificed after this level of spending, they can simply forget it.  Not only will the economy be the primary focus when this is over, it will override every other concern by quite some margin.

The UK, for instance, is funding nearly twice as much as the US, if you consider population and economic size.  Resolving that funding gap will be the primary focus after the virus and the environment will be put on the back burner.

On a personal note I have a son in Argentina, not on holiday, he has lived there for 15 years.  He is extremely vulnerable to the virus due to a pre existing lung condition and I need to get him out of the country.  He was 1,000 miles from BA.  His existing identity documents have expired and I need to move him.

He managed to get some 200 miles closer but had to navigate 10 checkpoints to get there.  When he arrived, 5 hotels were open and nobody would take foreigners.  If it were not for the British embassy, who have been magnificent, he would probably be in jail by now and dead by the end of next week.

In order to solve the problem I have had to hire a private jet to get him back to BA.

Qualms about doing so? Zero.  Qualms about flying him on a 13.5 hour flight from BA back to the UK.  Zero.

I'm just glad that the private jet infrastructure exists to allow me to get him home.

Fortunately, with all the other flights closed, the impact to the environment of this single flight is negligible.

This virus is the worst thing for concerted action against AGW in the future.  Governments are going to focus on getting economies back on a level footing so they can pay back all this money they are borrowing now.

We may be seeing a drop in many pollutants right now.  But we will pay for that in a lack of reduction from BAU when the virus finally blows itself out in 2 or 3 months.  Or at least mainly blows itself out.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 27, 2020, 12:51:00 PM
NeilT:
Even that drop is canceled by aerosols dropping
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 27, 2020, 01:22:44 PM
Can you buy him a spaceship when global warming starts to bite?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 27, 2020, 02:49:37 PM
This virus is the worst thing for concerted action against AGW in the future.  Governments are going to focus on getting economies back on a level footing so they can pay back all this money they are borrowing now.

First of all, that's not how it works. A government isn't like a private person or household borrowing money from the bank, and then paying it back over time, with interest. These are fairy tales, brainwashed into people's minds by free market fundamentalists and right-wing politicians.

Second, and more importantly, the government doesn't pay back anything. It's the tax payers who are paying back. Concentrated wealth has taken over the economic and political systems, and so it's normal, average people who have to foot the bill, not the temporary guardians of the wealth, aka the rich. And that money goes straight to concentrated wealth.

I know some people want to keep it that way, so they can fly private jets across the planet. But it doesn't have to be that way. COVID-19 is a lesson that can potentially teach people that it doesn't have to be that way. Money is created out of thin air, has hardly any relationship with the real economy anymore, and can be set to any use, not just the endless increase and concentration of wealth.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 27, 2020, 02:58:45 PM
It's the tax payers who are paying back

I agree, Neven. Only the quoted part is kinda wrong.

They 'print' that money. What's happening here is the devaluation (inflation) of the dollar.

So this means it's cutting the buying power of every US citizen (and the countries the US dollar is currency).

Of course, this is only a short term pump, but the loss of buying power will stay.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 27, 2020, 03:28:28 PM
BTW, NeilT could be entirely right, of course. He to me represents the current level our collective consciousness is at.

What we have here, is a sure sign of a failed system that a) causes a pandemic, b) causes massive damage because of the decade-long degeneration of populations due to malnutrition and over-medication, and c) causes a highly deficient response due to underfunding, corner cutting and maintaining that health care is a privilege, not a right.

But as NeilT says, this sign will be used as an argument to double down on the system. And given the many NeilTs in the world, it will probably receive wide support. I mean, just look at that insanely corrupt stimulus package that was pushed down everybody's throat in the world's largest banana republic. One could describe it as 'ironic', if it wasn't so criminally murderous.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 27, 2020, 05:02:13 PM
...have you heard anybody say, "Oh my, I was clearly wrong all along.  Please forgive me!"?
Yes! 
Quote
Young Admits He Was Wrong on the ‘Beer Virus’

March 27, 2020 at 9:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard (https://politicalwire.com/) ...

Rep. Don Young (R-AK), who on March 13 told a group of seniors that fears of the “beer virus” have been overblown by the media, on Thursday delivered a very different message, the Anchorage Daily News reports.

Said Young: “Weeks ago I did not fully grasp the severity of this crisis, but clearly, we are in the midst of an urgent public health emergency… This pandemic is dangerous and is especially threatening our senior citizens, of which I am one.”
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 27, 2020, 05:16:44 PM
Hell freezes over!

\o/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 27, 2020, 09:19:05 PM
Amid Social Distancing, Walmart Sees an Interesting Sales Trend
Quote
Americans have been adjusting to a new normal as tens of millions of people are suddenly being compelled to work from home. Among other changes, people who rarely had to communicate via videoconferences now have to do so regularly.

That has led to a surprising change in purchasing patterns at Walmart Executive Vice President of Corporate Affairs Dan Bartlett explained what is happening on Yahoo! Finance Live on Thursday.

What are people buying?
"In one of your previous segments you were talking about people with Zoom, and doing those types of conferencing: We're seeing increased sales in tops, but not bottoms," Bartlett said. "So, people who are concerned, obviously, from the waist up."

It sounds silly, but people who appear on video conferences generally are only seen from the waist up. Of course, it's never a good idea to be too casual in case you do end up on camera showing your entire outfit.

"These behaviors are going to continue to change and evolve as people get accustomed to this new lifestyle, if you will. And we're able to accommodate that, both online and in our stores," he added.

A new reality
This sales trend raises a lot of questions. What were people wearing to work before the coronavirus? Do people feel a need to dress better online than they would in person? What are consumers going to do with their half-outfits when this ends?

What this particular trend shows is that consumer demand patterns may shift in areas beyond food, household items, and other staples. It doesn't really make sense to buy new half outfits, but people are doing it and retailers may have to shift how they stock their apparel departments to meet changing demand.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/amid-social-distancing-walmart-sees-an-interesting-sales-trend-2020-03-27
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: be cause on March 27, 2020, 10:59:28 PM
Hi NeilT .. i hope you can advertise your jet to embassy and others so you could bring as many home as possible . S.America has many ex-pats desperate to return .. you can help a few other families .. b.c.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on March 27, 2020, 11:30:18 PM
Neil


His papers have expired, he's broken quarantine or whatever safeguards that more than one country had put in place, and you're now responsible for transporting him halfway around the world.


If it should turn out that he's an asymptomatic carrier responsible for outbreaks in possibly 3 countries, what should his punishment be? What if there are multiple deaths following in his path?


Do you share criminal responsibility, and if not why not. Laws were evidently broken, some before he enlisted your aid and some under your direction.


Should he - and yourself be civilly responsible for any harm he may have caused? What's the life of a Jet Pilot worth - how about the life of an Argentinian Peon?


I understand your motivation and might have done the same, though I certainly wouldn't admit my culpability on the internet.
I hope of course that he's well and has never been responsible for anyone catching as much as a mild case of the sniffles. I also dare hope that before some other doting father contemplates "rescuing" a loved one, that he considers the damage that his compassionate act might cause.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 28, 2020, 03:14:09 AM
Hi NeilT .. i hope you can advertise your jet to embassy and others so you could bring as many home as possible . S.America has many ex-pats desperate to return .. you can help a few other families .. b.c.

Not my jet.  I just chartered it through a charter company which has, so far, carried out 2 dozen rescue missions of this kind.

Anyone can find them if they want.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 28, 2020, 03:24:20 AM
Terry,

My son was authorised by the police, the UK government and the Argentinian government to travel.

On his jet leg it took more than 12 hours to get the paperwork done and he was travelling under an existing "allowable" travel mechanism where Argentina allows citizens of another country to travel to an airport which can repatriate them and the person travelling has a booked repatriation flight.

No quarantine was broken, he travelled under the rules and restrictions of the quarantine in place.

The night before he was driven by an American citizen, to the city I flew him out of, through 9 police checkpoints and one Army checkpoint.  All checkpoints accepted the repatriation clause and the Embassy documentation.

I am ex military. That means I'm biological warfare trained. Unlike civilians who work outside the sphere of infectious diseases.

No laws, rules or quarantine was broken.  My son is not asymptomatic but living in a hostel with 6 other people, many of whom had washed up in a backwater in Argentina, was going to guarantee that he got it eventually.

He has a fair chance of picking it up on the flight back home but it is a risk we must take.

Don't try and scare me here, or paint me as a monster.  If I thought I was moving my son, infected, I would not have done it.  Whatever the cost to me.  But not moving him to a safe place, uninfected, was not an option.

I have no qualms whatsoever, in repeating any of that on the Internet.  If it saves someone's life, then fine.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 28, 2020, 03:26:16 AM
But as NeilT says, this sign will be used as an argument to double down on the system. And given the many NeilTs in the world, it will probably receive wide support. I mean, just look at that insanely corrupt stimulus package that was pushed down everybody's throat in the world's largest banana republic. One could describe it as 'ironic', if it wasn't so criminally murderous.

Not really Neven.  I'm a realist.  I would hope that our governments would suddenly ignore the masses of voters and say "hey we're going to spend whatever it takes to fix the climate issue then we're going to MAKE you pay for it.  ALL of you".

But, as I say, I'm a realist.  I hope others are too.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on March 28, 2020, 03:57:17 AM

NeilSorry that I misinterpreted your earlier post.
The facts apparently are not as they seemed.


One of our Governmental missives said that wherever you slept the night before was where you were to remain until the crisis has passed.


Rough for some, but best for the majority.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on March 28, 2020, 10:17:31 AM
Posting this from the COVID 19 thread.

In Texas, a midnight run across the Mexican border gets masks for doctors

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-27/masks-from-mexico-doctors-protective-equipment-shortages


Quote
Banning’s friend, who had connections in the oil and gas business, had 350 cases of surgical masks from a factory in Mexico. He’d managed to get the shipment over the border, navigating drug cartels and border agents demanding payoffs. Did Banning know anyone who could use them?

Banning, who heads the Texas Academy of Family Physicians, didn’t have to think twice.

“We had physicians tying bandannas around their faces,” he said. “It was like they were fortifying the big urban hospitals and leaving the front-line soldiers to fight without defenses.”

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on March 28, 2020, 10:24:17 AM
In reply to the incident above.

Pretty much, yes. If you don't have the money you don't get the medicine, you die. Same as justice in the US.

But right now, that hero is saving lives in a way that should teach us humility.

Ah, so Trump is doing it right reserving resources to the people he likes. There's no difference.

The President of the United States has a duty to all the people of the US of A. A doctor in a medical emergency has a duty to their patients and colleagues. That's a difference with functional implications.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on March 28, 2020, 10:41:24 AM
\
The die was cast ? So you are saying that they could not have managed it better better when there were only a few cases. But now there are 80 000 it's possible.
Public health measures slow the spread.  A virus this contagious, with spread by asymptomatic victims is essentially impossible to stop, unless whole populations can be tested and quarantines enforced.  Sufficient test kits could have been stockpiled, if wise leaders heeded the warnings that Wuhan was showing to the world.  There isn't time to catch up at this late date.  The die is cast.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 28, 2020, 11:16:47 AM
In reply to the incident above.

Pretty much, yes. If you don't have the money you don't get the medicine, you die. Same as justice in the US.

But right now, that hero is saving lives in a way that should teach us humility.

Ah, so Trump is doing it right reserving resources to the people he likes. There's no difference.

The President of the United States has a duty to all the people of the US of A. A doctor in a medical emergency has a duty to their patients and colleagues. That's a difference with functional implications.

Thank you for the answer. Now we'd need to define 'duty' and see if it is mentioned in the law on electable persons to the office, do they need to understand it, but that might be a question for the law people and I'm not very versed even on Finnish law.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on March 28, 2020, 11:50:38 AM
Do you understand why it is wrong for a leader to hoard supplies during an emergency and release them only upon receiving pledges in exchange?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 28, 2020, 12:36:27 PM
Clearly shows he is unfit for the job but that is not exactly a lesson from Covid.

The lack of international cooperation on this is going to hurt and make thinks worse like it hurts AGW.

The scary thing is that this is just a disease so it will fade.
With AGW that will not happen. Things will just get worse year over year.

There are lines we should not have crossed and we crossed a number before the 1.5 C point was reached and we still have 0 real commitments to actually hit that target.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on March 28, 2020, 12:45:17 PM
Quote
The lack of international cooperation on this is going to hurt and make thinks worse like it hurts AGW.

Ain't that some truth.

The C19 problem can't be solved without international cooperation and coordination. If there was a time to cooperate, it is now.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 28, 2020, 01:02:08 PM
Or ages ago.

When the soviet union collapsed the empire changed it´s targets.

We could possibly have reduced weapons by a lot in the world and invested in really making it a better place for all. Imagine where we could have been if battery and solar tech had gotten subsidies even if it was half of what big oil got every year from the late nineties on.

We could have conserved so much older forests which are a much better carbon sink then the palm oil plantation that is there now etc.

The reality should sink in that we are here together on one planet we cannot get of.

And we should get clear about the difference between the carbon budget where you cannot cheat because of physics and our usual urge to cheat which is easy in this economic system with well trained consumer sheeple. 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 28, 2020, 04:05:04 PM
For a time we did reduce weapons. Even nowadays armies in Europe are mere shadows of their Cold War counterparts. Readiness was lowered and nuclear arsenals were partly decommisioned. Though the US never really followed in order to retain hegemony.

9/11 and GWB changed the course with the mindless war on terror. American overseas adventures tempted competing powers, mainly Russia and China, to increase military spending. But even then world remained mostly peaceful. NATO didn’t have a defence plan for new Baltic members before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014. That was the ultimate gamechanger and military spending has gone up ever since.

So there was a window of opportunity but it was completely and utterly wasted. Everybody was too busy trying to make money from the new tech or hoarding the cheap consumer junk the coal powered Chinese economic miracle pushed around the world.

Now we are living on a planet becoming less and less hospitable every year. Nationalist populist leaders around the world are playing zero sum games against each other while using diminishing resources at their disposal to cement their power and grow their armed forces.

It’s easy to be pessimist but it is what it is. What makes me sad is that we had the opportunity to build a different kind of world but we decided to trade it for sweatshop clothes and flatscreen televisions.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: LRC1962 on March 28, 2020, 04:45:57 PM
I think we have 2 different answers and Covid and AGW apply to both.
Lessons we should learn are that for profit fails miserably in a crisis. It is based on the premise you never have redundancy and you do everything as cheaply as possible. and result when a crisis hits you have no extra manoeuvring room in your system to mitigate the crisis and what you have in place is not good enough to handle the crisis.
What we are learning is that globalization is extremely fragile. Go into crisis mode what happens? Every  man for himself. Even in the boundaries of a county it is that way. Isolation is much needed, but what about much needed resources? There is very little cooperation in fact there is much more bickering about what  the other guy is or is not doing. End result. Everyone develops their own tests and own procedures and own medicines and own vaccines with very little sharing. There is some, but of the $Ts being spent very little. And as for the third world? Tough that's their problem.
IMO the same thing will happen with AGW solutions. Every man for himself and as long as I am taken care of, and I had better be, who cares about anyone else?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 28, 2020, 05:22:50 PM
https://www.genstrike.org
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: be cause on March 28, 2020, 05:25:58 PM
ah .. a general strike by the unemployed ?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 28, 2020, 05:33:45 PM
hmmm...
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on March 28, 2020, 07:48:39 PM
The lesson is that those who presume to govern us, a.k.a. "The Masters of the Universe" are determined to get back to BAU at any cost by any means.

The evidence for this abounds... e.g. A post from Sigmetnow on the oil & gas issues thread
Quote
EPA suspends enforcement of environmental laws amid coronavirus
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a sweeping suspension of its enforcement of environmental laws Thursday, telling companies they would not need to meet environmental standards during the coronavirus outbreak.

The temporary policy, for which the EPA has set no end date, would allow any number of industries to skirt environmental laws, with the agency saying it will not “seek penalties for noncompliance with routine monitoring and reporting obligations.”

Cynthia Giles, who headed the EPA’s Office of Enforcement during the Obama administration, called it a moratorium on enforcing the nation's environmental laws and an abdication of the agency's duty.

“This EPA statement is essentially a nationwide waiver of environmental rules for the indefinite future. It tells companies across the country that they will not face enforcement even if they emit unlawful air and water pollution in violation of environmental laws, so long as they claim that those failures are in some way 'caused' by the virus pandemic. And it allows them an out on monitoring too, so we may never know how bad the violating pollution was,” she wrote in a statement to The Hill.

...
In a 10-page letter to the EPA earlier this week, the American Petroleum Institute (API) asked for a suspension of rules that require repairing leaky equipment as well as monitoring to make sure pollution doesn’t seep into nearby water. ...
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/489753-epa-suspends-enforcement-of-environmental-laws-amid-coronavirus
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Human Habitat Index on March 29, 2020, 09:02:49 AM
Looking at the statistics, the lesson is if you are healthy you are unlikely to be affected.

Lesson for governments is to focus on wellness and preventative medicine emphasizing nutrition.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 29, 2020, 04:53:59 PM
Looking at the statistics, the lesson is if you are healthy you are unlikely to be affected.

Lesson for governments is to focus on wellness and preventative medicine emphasizing nutrition.

Finally, an interesting comment.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on March 29, 2020, 05:12:12 PM
Looking at the statistics, the lesson is if you are healthy you are unlikely to be affected.

Lesson for governments is to focus on wellness and preventative medicine emphasizing nutrition.
What are those statistics? What are the hospitalization rate and death rate for age under 50? Under 70?
In Israel at the moment 5% of the critical patients are people under 50 (one is 22) who have no previous health conditions.
As there are more young healthy people than sick old people, the hospitalization rate alone could overwhelm local healthcare systems.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 29, 2020, 05:20:23 PM
From March 25.  Apologies if it has already been posted; my searches didn’t turn it up.

How the Pandemic Will End
The U.S. may end up with the worst COVID-19 outbreak in the industrialized world. This is how it’s going to play out.
Ed Yong is a staff writer at The Atlantic, where he covers science.
Quote
Three months ago, no one knew that SARS-CoV-2 existed. Now the virus has spread to almost every country, infecting at least 446,000 people whom we know about, and many more whom we do not. It has crashed economies and broken health-care systems, filled hospitals and emptied public spaces. It has separated people from their workplaces and their friends. It has disrupted modern society on a scale that most living people have never witnessed. Soon, most everyone in the United States will know someone who has been infected. Like World War II or the 9/11 attacks, this pandemic has already imprinted itself upon the nation’s psyche.

A global pandemic of this scale was inevitable. In recent years, hundreds of health experts have written books, white papers, and op-eds warning of the possibility. Bill Gates has been telling anyone who would listen, including the 18 million viewers of his TED Talk. In 2018, I wrote a story for The Atlantic arguing that America was not ready for the pandemic that would eventually come. In October, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security war-gamed what might happen if a new coronavirus swept the globe. And then one did. Hypotheticals became reality. “What if?” became “Now what?”

So, now what? In the late hours of last Wednesday, which now feels like the distant past, I was talking about the pandemic with a pregnant friend who was days away from her due date. We realized that her child might be one of the first of a new cohort who are born into a society profoundly altered by COVID-19. We decided to call them Generation C.

As we’ll see, Gen C’s lives will be shaped by the choices made in the coming weeks, and by the losses we suffer as a result. ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 29, 2020, 05:44:07 PM
Lessons... in math?  ;)

a2+b2=c2
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 29, 2020, 06:09:53 PM
What are those statistics?

As kassy said in the other thread, 80% of all COVID-19 patients in Dutch ICUs are overweight. That's just an example.

Isn't it clear to you that in a society where a) there is minimal air pollution, b) people aren't made chronically addicted to tobacco and sugar, and c) food is minimally processed and tampered with, there is no chance that COVID-19 could have the impact it has now?

If you agree with this on principle, ask yourself the question: Why do we have the opposite of a), b) and c) in most of the western world? Make that all of the world. Why is that?

And does this have to change if we want true resilience to pandemics and other global problems, like AGW? Or do we just treat the symptoms (in COVID-19's case, mass production of medication, vaccines, ventilators, PPE, etc) and change nothing?

What lessons do we learn from this?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on March 29, 2020, 06:26:43 PM
^^
Do we know what % of middle aged Dutch are overweight?


Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on March 29, 2020, 07:09:00 PM
Lessons... in math?  ;)

This is hilarious, actually!
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 29, 2020, 07:26:25 PM
What lessons do we learn from this?

If you want a), b) and c), you need less people in the world.  Those less people will consume less energy, less food and produce less waste and less emissions.

At the same time, there needs to be a more proactive approach to energy use, waste and balance in the 1st world.

Especially if many of those people wish to advance to a state the 1st world is in.

It is a multi sided equation.  Because if you don't balance it all the way, then you will simply be crushed by the other side of the equation.

However I tend to see only one side ever being addressed by the AGW lobby.  The non AGW lobby is aware that only one side is being addressed and resist.

Killing the argument.  It only gets real traction when there are climate disasters.

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 29, 2020, 07:33:59 PM
You could build cities and society differently.
We did not get here because we chose the best options for all of us.

And it is not like we are doing a great job in the first world with unsustainable soil and water management and rampant pollution problems. Those would bite eventually even if there was no AGW. It is very much the same problem.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 29, 2020, 08:57:23 PM
Neven:
It would still be pretty bad. Spanish flu happened before those problems. But those things don’t help.
I used to be obese, maybe morbidly. Now I am overweight and trying to get down to normal.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2020, 02:59:44 AM
Lessons: 
1) Believe experts.
2) Don’t lie.

Quote
Jay Rosen (@jayrosen_nyu) 3/29/20, 5:37 PM
"...I've been talking to Fox insiders over the last few days, there's a real concern inside the network that their early downplaying of the coronavirus actually exposes Fox News to potential legal action by viewers who maybe were misled. " —@gabrielsherman
https://twitter.com/jayrosen_nyu/status/1244378107286519814
Article below.

Quote
Michael R. Bromwich (@mrbromwich)3/29/20, 5:46 PM
Fox is right to be concerned. Very concerned. This could be a legal bloodbath. Discovery will undoubtedly show that its personnel were putting out falsely comforting information it knew to be false and misleading in order to sync up with WH messaging.
https://twitter.com/mrbromwich/status/1244380474690220034


Fox News is worried about legal action after misleading viewers about coronavirus
Quote
…Fox News tried to do their original playbook, which was dismiss it as a hoax, say that this is another partisan attempt by Democrats to hurt Donald Trump, and this was the case where they could not prevent reality. Fox News is a very powerful media organization, but it cannot stop people from dropping dead. And what happened is that people did start dying. We did see hot spots in New York, on the West Coast and now we're seeing one in the deep South, which is getting closer to Trump country, and Fox News has had to pivot to actually cover this as a real story. ...
https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-news/fox-news-worried-about-legal-action-after-misleading-viewers-about-coronavirus
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2020, 04:07:31 AM
Lesson: our cultural habits spread germs.  Germaphobes have it right.

Mythbusters Contamination

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wPKBpk7wUY
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: The Walrus on March 30, 2020, 05:40:43 AM
Other news outlets were not so clear either.  Politico was pushing the fake hoax scenario.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/28/trump-south-carolina-rally-coronavirus-118269

CBS posted a false story about Trump telling people with the virus to go to work.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/donald-trump-coronavirus-comments-suggesting-people-go-to-work/

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 30, 2020, 11:40:09 AM
I'm not saying we are doing a great job, for the liveable biosphere we are doing a crap job.  But constantly addressing only one part of it gives an out for those who want to do nothing.

The world, in general, learned virtually nothing from SARS and MERS. But some did, like China and South Korea.  Both addressed it in slightly different ways but the underlying tool was the same. They removed some freedoms in order to get the job done.

Now let's apply that to AGW.

Only when millions are at risk in the next few months is it acceptable to remove freedoms and take dramatic action.

In terms of AGW, that is 50 years too late.  Or even 100 years.  Years which can never be recovered in terms of human timescales.

Are we sure we want to apply Covid-19 disaster regime to AGW? Personally I would have thought we needed far more proactive measures.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on March 30, 2020, 12:13:23 PM
What lessons do we learn from this?

If you want a), b) and c), you need less people in the world.  Those less people will consume less energy, less food and produce less waste and less emissions.

The system requires, no, demands more consumers, and growing consumption rates. Why is that?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Aporia_filia on March 30, 2020, 12:41:37 PM
From the point of view of a non human member of the biosphere, these are the lessons of a David vs. Goliath story.
The biosphere is happy because its tricks to keep the wonderful homeostasis between the different members of its community are still working (apparently).
As any other plague, our huge and extremely successful population boom is the main reason for our demise.
If humans can not understand and learn and apply this knowledge there's no future for us.
My little thoughts.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on March 30, 2020, 03:09:10 PM
^^
"The biosphere is happy"

Is that really what you think? I find it absurdly wrong.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SimonF92 on March 30, 2020, 03:16:34 PM
This made me do a sad-smile when i saw it
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on March 30, 2020, 03:32:05 PM
Very on point.

I don´t think anyone suggests a ´Covid-19 disaster regime´ for AGW.

It´s more like learning from the mistakes.

This is a relatively simple problem.

After it was clear the was a new SARS variant arguably we could all have gone for the best practices. This includes more testing then was done but also realizing that in the current set up this still was likely to fail.

Next step would be to educate the public. Possibly tell everyone to wear a mask (to lessen the spread of what you for whatever cough or sneeze up).

The countries that did rather well are those who knew the reality of SARS like outbreaks. Here in the west many just did not see it coming. Ideally governments have someone looking at the near and further future but the focus is very much on the economy and that not even in a good way like investing in science needed for renewables because that is knowledge we can use in the future but just looking at another corporate handouts and some social programs to gut.

One problem is that the fight for old basic rights has long been resolved so most people have never been on the barricades and they take everything for granted. By and large the public has been educated to be uncritical consumers.

Our elections boil down to simple choices and hardly any debate is technical because that is boring.

So we pick someone because we lake him more or he is alarmed by the same things or whatever.

Meanwhile big business has all these lobbyists directly working to change laws to their benefit and that is usually not the benefit of us all. And off course there are these revolving doors like Wall Street - Washington and back.

We should recognize that we have only one planet and thus we have to live within our means.

When we know that agriculture is not sustainable we have to make it sustainable.
When we know we are mismanaging water we have to fix that.
When we have rampant chemical and plastic pollution we have to fix that.

And with all the tipping points you really want to control the carbon problem before it gets out of hand.

In the Netherlands we had a lot of discussion and farmer protests related to the nitrogen problem. No one adresses the wider issue. They might not like the limits imposed by the nitrogen laws but if your soil runs out in 30 years then you don´t really have a farm to pass on.

We are ignoring so many problems and many will hit at once.

The main thing is to take down concentrated wealth not just for the money but also to break down monocultures which make us a lot more vulnerable. We need all the variety we can keep so changing the system to promote small scale sustainable farming.

But mostly just start doing something.
Going by the principle that you cannot cheat physics so no book keeping tricks.
Absolute budget absolute goals.

Also simple goals like what does it look like in 20 (or whatever) years and can you live in that?

We can learn that ignoring real problems leads to more really big real problems that we have trouble handling hence prevent what you know we must prevent but of course the people deciding on those things are in a totally different bubble.

Maybe the lesson is not to ask what the world can do for you but what you can do for the world.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Aporia_filia on March 30, 2020, 09:53:28 PM
Nanning, plants and animals know nothing about covid, although they notice less noise, pollution and human pressure. I guess they like this, don't you think? Saying the biosphere is happy is a way of pointing this.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on March 30, 2020, 10:21:23 PM
This made me do a sad-smile when i saw it

That image is worth a thousand words.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on March 31, 2020, 10:17:26 AM
We can learn that ignoring real problems leads to more really big real problems that we have trouble handling
That is the most important point regarding AGW. We can twist and turn and negotiate and politicize all we like but unless emissions go down the climate will hit us in the face with an iron fist. You cannot make compromises with climate just as you cannot make compromises with a virus. Ignoring reality is not a strategy.

Now we have also seen how fast things can change. What was inconceivable a month ago is now everyday life in large parts of the world.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on March 31, 2020, 05:34:01 PM

The system requires, no, demands more consumers, and growing consumption rates. Why is that?

Because it was put in place after WW2 to give US industries, which had boomed during the war, somewhere to push their goods to.  To ensure that the end of the war did not wind up with an inevitable depression.

It was sound at the time but nobody expected that the whole wold would become invested in a short term "fix" solution.

It continues to exist today and shouting "the king has no clothes", whilst ignoring why it has continued in the way it has and also all angles of the situation, is more likely to get the little boy stoned than for the people to suddenly wake up and realise the situation is unsustainable.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: LRC1962 on March 31, 2020, 07:53:09 PM
IPCC 5 and Paris can be placed in the trash bin. At least in the short term most environmental concerns worldwide are going to be ignored all in the interest of generating maximum number of jobs and profits at all costs.
Looking at https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/13/a-closer-look-at-scenario-rcp8-5/ (https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/13/a-closer-look-at-scenario-rcp8-5/) I do not think we will see 8.5, but 2.6 was hopeless before Covid now there is no chance and you will see a very fast upturn in CO2 once Covid is stabilized. Where we are heading. I do not know, but based on what is occurring with governments reaction to Covid? It will only be until after extreme crisis is already on us that any action will be taken and we all know that will be far to late to just mitigate the disaster we will be facing.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on March 31, 2020, 11:12:23 PM
I am just sad I will not live to see that crisis change things, LRC1962. At least I would have the satisfaction of saying “I told you so.”.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 01, 2020, 12:00:49 PM
Don't let a good crisis go to waste.

https://youtu.be/gJFXTvJrQjM?t=3350
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 01, 2020, 08:40:52 PM
Everything became chaotic due to CV19.
Those with the best paid lobbyists will make the rules and decide who receives bailouts paid for primarily with dollars backed by the myth that the US will somehow at sometime repay its debt.


I don't imagine that those that have invested so heavily in politicians have our interests in mind. I fear that the Pre-Pandemic Era will be remembered as "The Good Old Days". An era when we somehow believed that those in power cared about our needs, our demands.


Best of luck to all, but I can't imagine this working out well for anyone not presently near the very apex of the elite.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 01, 2020, 10:39:04 PM
I fear that the Pre-Pandemic Era will be remembered as "The Good Old Days". An era when we somehow believed that those in power cared about our needs, our demands.

If you still believed that in 2020 or even the last decade you were not paying attention. See all anti-science anti-people pro-business decisions by the current government or TARP etc before. Or the whole general set up on health care and wellfare. See Inequality thread for some nice examples.

In general lets be critical of what our governments do now as we need to anyway but of course there is quite a difference between lets say Europe and the USA. Basically the US population should be unhappy with all kind of measures but we either hear nothing about it (well some minor articles about organisations fighting things in court) but for some reason nothing much gets the public moving. All to busy surviving i guess.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 02, 2020, 05:19:11 AM
"If you still believed that in 2020 or even the last decade you were not paying attention. See all anti-science anti-people pro-business decisions by the current government or TARP etc before. Or the whole general set up on health care and wellfare. See Inequality thread for some nice examples."

Agree wholeheartedly here, the last "Good Old Day" was December 11th in 2000. (Yes, had to check the date of suspension of Florida recount). After that the US has not based it's policies in reality. No doubt their odd election system has skewed results even before that.  (Now they have a reverse compass needle as El Prez, while Obama said :we cannot know which end of the compass needle is the right one.' sorry frustration speaking.)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 02, 2020, 11:43:31 AM
"If you still believed that in 2020 or even the last decade you were not paying attention. See all anti-science anti-people pro-business decisions by the current government or TARP etc before. Or the whole general set up on health care and wellfare. See Inequality thread for some nice examples."

Agree wholeheartedly here, the last "Good Old Day" was December 11th in 2000. (Yes, had to check the date of suspension of Florida recount). After that the US has not based it's policies in reality. No doubt their odd election system has skewed results even before that.  (Now they have a reverse compass needle as El Prez, while Obama said :we cannot know which end of the compass needle is the right one.' sorry frustration speaking.)
By that standard, even before then. I remember "Tricky Dick". The reason DEcember 31, 2019 will be remembered as the end of The Good Old Days is because this pandemic and its consequences will hit everybody, very hard, right away.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 02, 2020, 03:43:05 PM
Simple lesson for anyone who hadn't figured it out yet. Elon Musk is a bad man.

He has downplayed the virus at every opportunity. He tried to keep his bay area factory open despite orders to close it. He promised 1255 FDA approved ventilators but actually delivered BiPAP machines which are plenty abundant because aerosolizing COVID-19 isn't a good idea.


Equally simple: if someone refuses to recognize that Elon Musk is a con artists who seeks out crises  to exploit low-IQ/low-info virtue-signalers, that someone is a worthless void masquerading as a genuine human.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 02, 2020, 05:30:55 PM
Believe it or not, GSY, i'm glad you are still alive.

I really thought something might have happened to you.

But to your post, blame trump, he is in charge. Elon isn't!
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 02, 2020, 07:08:24 PM
Thank you. I'm alive and well.

I gave up trying to get through to people. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make them drink / You can't wake a person who is pretending to be asleep.

Also I have new raised beds, chickens, goats, and a human to tend to. And I'm trying to put my writing energy into finishing a book rather than posting here. It's still great to read though.


I'm not comparing the blame Trump deserves vs Musk, I'm just pointing out what a complete ass-clown fraud Musk continues to prove himself to be.


https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/04/01/1585782924000/Elon-Musk-promised-ventilators--These-are-BPAP-machines-/

I'm sure he will manufacture invasive ventilators though. When? 3 months maybe, 6 months definitely. aka: never.


Another lesson from C19 that people are starting to realize: the modern economy is hyper-fragile and the financial system is a house of cards.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: longwalks1 on April 03, 2020, 01:51:34 AM
Posting here.  Mom and Dad 89 and 95 y.o.) under lockdown in senior place, rural Iowa.  Moi, I shuttle between 3 residential sites for mentally challenged under lockdowns, meds, overnights.  ...   Mar 13 - long day -  7 am to 7 pm ok, then an individual coughs, again, at risk for aspiration pneumo. I chide negelient staff, slow, give meds.  9 pm, more meds, very shallow breathing.  bad colour, I got 82 for pO2.  Nurse, 911, I follow ambulance  later to hospital, xrays, strep, influ neg.  She is released, I amdone at 2 am.  3 days later she is admitted.  Intubated.  NO NEW News.  3 days  later I go into do meds.  I don mask and ask how she is.  I state the mask is in case I am asymptomatic and carrying. There is really no one else to do meds.  I get email, she is negative, mask off.  She came back a few days later , did not improve, back in.  60 yr old mentally challenged.  Does not look good. I have seen 4 others die of aspiration pneumo since 1991 taking care of the mentally challenged.  So, I look back at all the years I and teams did right in managing dysphagias, cerebellar ataxias, ...   

    Meanwhile dad is getting cabin fever immensely.  I am trying to finesse getting the keys away from him for his car.  He calls up and want to come up,  get a bottle of wine and 1/2 gallon milk (3 oz wine at bedtime with mom) and have me drive him back and then take the car.   I know he will get tossed out of lockdown if he does that.  I say stay put, I will be by toningh.  I get on my bicycle.
   Wicked head wind, 15 miles - 25 km down to him, buy wine and milk and meet him and mom at the door.  Mission accomplished. 

    You just do what you can. when you can; seize the moment when needed.   I do have a covenant via L'Arche of a life dedicated to the mentally challenged. So I will just continue to walk 2 or 4 or 8 blocks to various work sites for my vocation. 

  Not too crazy yet in rural north central Iowa. South Dakota is being idiotic with no restrictions.   Minnesota 40 km north is much more locked down.  Hopefully they can get some crops in around here.    I just might hire somebody to put on new shingles on house, dad was delaying.  Peace out. 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on April 03, 2020, 02:29:13 AM
Thanks for sharing longwalks.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 03, 2020, 02:28:47 PM
Best of luck LongW!
Keep us informed.



Kassey & Pmt
What I was trying to express was that the Post-Pandemic era is liable to be so bad that everything preceding the pandemic will be viewed as favorable by comparison.


GSY
Great to read your words again!
Tesla's expanding PR expenses will be gobbling up much of what might have gone to pay back some of the creditors.
If the past is any indication, Musk's lobbyists will make sure that lots of federal funding will be flowing into Elon's Enterprises. Whether the public forgives Musk's unforgivable actions is another matter.


Tesla needs customers, but Spacex and Hyperloop need little other than generous government contracts, and regulatory agencies blinded by greed.
I fear that in the years ahead Musk's government contacts will keep him in business even as Elon's public image tanks.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 03, 2020, 03:29:05 PM
And of course, we need to move parts of humanity to other planets where there is no coronavirus.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Paddy on April 03, 2020, 05:47:10 PM
One thing that I expect will happen from this at an individual level is that a lot more people will start to maintain a store of long lasting goods that they need at home, so that they don't end up out of pasta / tinned tomatoes / toilet roll / whatever the next time there's a crisis.

I also wonder if fewer people will want to board a cruise ship, after the various plague ship occurrences we've been seeing with this.

On a medical level, it's possible we may identify some new broad-spectrum antiviral treatments.  We'll certainly be able to rule out a lot of candidates for such treatment, given the number of trials under way.  And I'd imagine the world's intensive care capacity may get a significant upgrade.

On a systematic level of how the world runs?  Many countries may be a little quicker to respond the next time a new infection shows similar behaviour.  But remember that there have been a lot of false alarms and contained situations while waiting for the next viral pandemic, and there will be a lot more to come after this... which will likely wear down responsiveness all over again, over time.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 06, 2020, 02:58:26 AM
I think there is a very important lesson to be learned from the hospitalization of Boris Johnson. Given his age and disposition, he probably has a better than 90% of making it out with nothing but minor permanent loss of lung function. However, let's say the low probability event happens. What impact would such a loss have on world politics?

Now let's say we take the suicidal "die for the economy" approach. How many people of key importance like Mr. Johnson would die?  The damage to many plans with many years on the work can't be overstated or counted in dollars.

To save the economy we must save as many people as possible from covid 19, as quickly possible. If we do it smartly we can make a better world out of it.

Of course, that is difficult with Nero in charge.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 06, 2020, 10:19:22 AM
Ramen!!


Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: dnem on April 07, 2020, 08:43:34 PM
Sorry El Cid. Tone can be hard to pick up sometimes. I think of myself as a realist too, and that's why I'm not very optimistic about the future. But I do hope there is some re-examination of globalism after this.

You said: "What I actually meant was that the world has been extremely interconnected for thousands of years and pandemics swept thru Eurasia quite quickly many centuries before capitalism and globalisation and disrupted trade and economy heavily."

I'm sure that is true and rare commodities have surely moved across continents for a couple of thousand years. But the complexity of modern supply chains makes them far less stable in the face of disruptions than the spice trade, or salt or what have you.  In the past, commodities moved because they were not available everywhere.  Since the rise of globalization, capital now moves freely around in search of the cheapest inputs of materials and labor. It is both dehumanizing and a disaster for the environment.  Layer on top of that the financialization of everything, which did not exist in ancient supply chains and IMO you have a much less stable, much more vulnerable world.

Stay safe.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 07, 2020, 11:04:07 PM
Yes that is why i stated that the current one cannot be compareded to black death, Justinian plague or 1918 H1N1. The systems were different although more connectivity is the common factor it was just so much lower then today.

In 1918 they did not even have antibiotics while now we have all kinds of relatively cheap medicines but produced by China and India mainly. Some recent examples of problems include problems with pollution in some of the more common heart medicines made in both countries (this already had the EU looking into producing more locally, possibly) and the drought in 2019 stopped medicine production in South India where they make a lot of meds that are really common in the US (and probably EU to but the article was US centered).

We are optimizing for some peoples gain but we should optimize for us all. This also works much better in the long term.

Basically people living to a better standard will have less kids.

One area of the world which has so far defied that is sub Saharan Africa but that is one of those regions which just never benefited from the worlds developments. If you have no thrust in society at large you need a bigger family so they keep doing that.

We could have built a world were we would not screw over sub saharan africa but we did not because someone could make more dollars the other way.

Another thing. We know that demographics after change, see Japan for example or the EU a bit behind. This has also been known for ages so this means you have to invest in ways to work smarter. You can use robots etc for basic production then do the more important stuff with people.

Most of us are in the still ´winning´ places why its hard for us to aknowlege how much the current arrangements suck.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on April 07, 2020, 11:06:58 PM
Dnem, global supply chains clearly have their problems, but trade can be a stabilizing factor too. Most importantly we nowadays have a tremendous capacity to quickly move surplus production to a location where it’s needed. Not so long ago a failed harvest meant a local famine and death.

I don’t disagree with you and I also think a lesson from Covid will be relocating production, but it’s important to remember global trade is not a black and white issue.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 07, 2020, 11:53:19 PM
You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 08, 2020, 12:05:24 AM
You are assuming they are produced in the universally best place but the chains are optimized for labor costs, low cost for environmental harms etc.

If you see the current state of the planet at a broad level you know this is not true. We make all kinds of BS choices. The amount of money being wasted on graft and losing wars at the Pentagon would allow for all kinds of projects making the USA a better place but no lets spend some $$$ on bombing the middle east.

Optimal for $ is not optimal for people.

Don´t be a puppet.



Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: be cause on April 08, 2020, 12:33:56 AM
.. that good posters are lost every time the trolls are given free rein and allowed to reign free . Every time we gain a Harpy we lose a Sam .. b.c
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: longwalks1 on April 08, 2020, 01:12:40 AM
Or lessons not learned.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2020/04/07/the-chaotic-government-response-to-covid-19-resembles-the-failures-of-1914/

The Chaotic Government Response to COVID-19 Resembles the Failures of 1914    Patrick Cockburn. 

Quote
Then as now there was poor leadership – inadequately prepared and hampered by an initially mistaken strategy – sending frontline forces over the top to suffer massive losses. The difference is that then the casualties were in the British army and today they are in the NHS.

Quote
The analogy could go on: the best trained troops of the British Expeditionary Force were all but wiped out in the first months of fighting and were replaced by enthusiastic but ill-trained volunteers. How will all those volunteering for service in Covid-19 hospitals fare when they begin to fill up?

I do try to keep up with the journalism of Fisk, Erci Margolis and Cockburn. 

No coughing spells or fevers  in the residentials I work at yet.  As noted elsewhere, intubations - especially longer term have serious long term consequences.  I had not seen many intubations for epiglottal dysphagias over the years.  Antibiotics, oxygen and albuterol, etc. And when that did not work, death, with friends present.   The recent one, well to my untrained eyes, intubation for aspiration pneumos just decreases the functioning of the epiglottis.  She is back in the hospital, not intubated and DNR. 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 08, 2020, 02:41:04 AM
You are assuming they are produced in the universally best place but the chains are optimized for labor costs, low cost for environmental harms etc.

I think that we can safely assume most manufacturing operations are not highly optimized operations except for some notable exceptions.

Quote
If you see the current state of the planet at a broad level you know this is not true. We make all kinds of BS choices. The amount of money being wasted on graft and losing wars at the Pentagon would allow for all kinds of projects making the USA a better place but no lets spend some $$$ on bombing the middle east.

but that is precisely my point. We can indeed have local production of whatever we want, but someone has to pay for the inefficiencies.

Quote
Optimal for $ is not optimal for people.

absolutely.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on April 08, 2020, 04:07:49 AM
.. that good posters are lost every time the trolls are given free rein and allowed to reign free . Every time we gain a Harpy we lose a Sam .. b.c
Where indeed IS Sam? Did he bail out due to the incessant trolling and spamming?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 08, 2020, 04:32:37 AM
Sam posted on COVID-19 thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg258703.html#msg258703) a couple hours ago.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on April 08, 2020, 05:00:07 AM
Phew.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2020, 09:43:16 AM
Dnem, global supply chains clearly have their problems, but trade can be a stabilizing factor too. Most importantly we nowadays have a tremendous capacity to quickly move surplus production to a location where it’s needed. Not so long ago a failed harvest meant a local famine and death.

I don’t disagree with you and I also think a lesson from Covid will be relocating production, but it’s important to remember global trade is not a black and white issue.

This would have been my answer to dnem had I not been asleep :)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2020, 09:45:40 AM
You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.

But that is exactly the point. Things WILL be scarcer and more expensive as globalisation turns back as it slowly will. The reduction of supply chains AND uncontrolled money-printing can only lead to one thing: inflation.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 09:59:32 AM
You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.

I get some things might get more expensive in the short term, but it also contributes to local productivity, bringing up local value-adding which leads to more taxes raised which then can be used to drive the prices down again.

But how would diversifying production contribute to scarcity? Logic tells me the opposite would happen.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2020, 10:50:32 AM
blumenkraft,

Globalisation drove down prices of most things for 2 reasons:
1) They outsourced production where wages were lower
2) They outsourced production where it was more productive

Now, 1) led to stagnant wages in the developed world BUT it led to huge gains in living standards in the developing world. it also led to income gains for owners of capital, as firms made more profits. I attach the infamous elephant curve, see for yourself.

If you turn back globalisation, ie. bring back workplaces from the developing world, you will raise the living standards of the developed lower-middle class (aka "white trash" - not my words) and reduce living standards of the developing world. And all the while, producers prices will rise (as John in Chicago will be paided more than Ali in bangladesh). Ali will lose his job, John will get a new one.
This is good for many Americans and Europeans and probably not so good for many billions. Yet, it will likely happen as COVID and the trade war will start to reduce globalisation
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 11:16:42 AM
Well, that is not addressing my question at all.

How would diversifying production contribute to scarcity?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on April 08, 2020, 11:19:13 AM
BL, the efficiency gains from comparative advantage of nations and economies of scale are real and contribute to overall productivity.  Such were utilized even in planned economies when the socialist bloc decided to produce machinery and optics in DDR, fruit and veggies in Bulgaria, grain in Ukraine etc.

However as always in economics there is no free lunch here either. When aiming for optimal productivity one loses resiliency. When the Soviet bloc collapsed so did the intra-bloc supply chains. Hence when the Wall came down there was no fruit in Moscow and no jobs for East German engineers.

Similarly we get very cheap consumer electronics because they are all are produced in vast quantities in China before being shipped by 20000 TEU container vessels to arrive just in time to their buyers. But if there is ever a problem in China the world will lack their flat screens and refrigerators.

The question is how much of productivity we are willing to sacrifice for resiliency. I think quite a lot when it comes to medical supplies, but probably a lot less for consumer electronics.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 11:33:27 AM
The question is how much of productivity we are willing to sacrifice for resiliency. I think quite a lot when it comes to medical supplies, but probably a lot less for consumer electronics.

No question about that. I one-hundred percent agree. I stated above, that in order to overcome the synergy effects we are losing due to diversifying production we might have to subsidize them.

Perhaps i'm speaking Chinese here but what i was asking is "how would diversifying production contribute to scarcity?"
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on April 08, 2020, 11:57:47 AM
Moving production to more locations and smaller units would reduce the comparative advantage and economies of scale. That would make the output more scarce in the economic sense of the word.

If you mean scarcity as in the unavailability of goods, then localized production might actually improve availability. As an example if every European nation had a local producer of medical supplies supplying the local market only, all countries would probably have better access to medical supplies at the time of present crisis.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 12:06:43 PM
If you mean scarcity as in the unavailability of goods, then localized production might actually improve availability.

Exactly. That's what i'm talking about.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 08, 2020, 12:53:25 PM
Scarcity is inevitable if you are subsidizing products to produce them locally. The moment the first politicians get elected who has better use for the subsidy funds, scarcity begins.

While governments are funneling money and prime resources are available, there is no reason for scarcity. Once the money flow stops scarcity begins. Sometimes, even if the money flows, corruption takes over and scarcity begins. Typically this is fixed by propaganda.

The ideal way is as old as humanity. Allies. You establish a strategic relationship with those that have what you don't. You give them what they need, they give you what you need. It works at the city level, at the county level, at the state level, and at the federal level. It also works at the international level when vane nationalism doesn't get in the way.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 08, 2020, 01:02:58 PM
But what does concentrated wealth want?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2020, 01:53:26 PM
If you mean scarcity as in the unavailability of goods, then localized production might actually improve availability.

Exactly. That's what i'm talking about.

I totally agree with blueiece but not on this one.

Comparative advantage means that things are produced where it is most productive. Once you move to less productive countries, by definition you produce less OR worse quality, OR even both. This is clear from the experience of the East Bloc. My father waited 8 years for a Trabant.

Yes you can stop outsourcing but the price is either smaller quantity or worse quality. or both
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 02:39:06 PM
Comparative advantage means that things are produced where it is most productive.
...
Yes you can stop outsourcing but the price is either smaller quantity or worse quality. or both

So, that implies that only very few companies/countries/societies are inherently able to produce a specific product or provide a special service. Otherwise, this argument ends here, right?

I am so bold to say that if there is a local or regulatory disadvantage it can be accounted for via subsidies or taxation. I don't get how this is not a no-brainer.

This discussion is silly! Of course, almost any country in the world would be able to produce essential medical products and services locally. It's not a question of if, but how. Or willingness for that matter.

And it would obviously improve availability in case of emergency.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 08, 2020, 02:55:34 PM
But what does concentrated wealth want?

Concentrated wealth wants this to end as quickly as possible. To do that they are using the SIR model but optimized for time not life. In practice, that means implementing approaches like "its just a flu", "no masks", no tests, and "die for the economy".  The faster susceptibles become immune (or dead), the quicker herd immunity is achieved.

The rationale behind it is that time is money.

What they miss is that Life is everything. Everything is greater than money. To save the economy they should've optimized for life not time.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 08, 2020, 03:35:55 PM
Lessons about taking time to appreciate and enjoy the little things in life.  ;D

Australians Who Leave House Only To Take Out Trash Have Started Dressing In Costumes To Do it
https://www.sadanduseless.com/bin-isolation-outing/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 08, 2020, 03:49:49 PM
This discussion is silly! Of course, almost any country in the world would be able to produce essential medical products and services locally. It's not a question of if, but how. Or willingness for that matter.

And it would obviously improve availability in case of emergency.

blumenkraft,

We were NOT talking about basic medical supplies. Yes, most countries can do that. We were talking about the general effects of relocation and shorter supply chains and moving production to areas with less comparative advantage. This will most certainly and by definition lead to higher prices and/or lower quality.

Bluice wrote about it pretty well.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 08, 2020, 04:20:32 PM
El Cid, i was replying to this post:

You can't just "relocate production" of each critical component needed for any emergency that could come up. Things will be produced where they are most effectively produced, else things get very expensive and scarce.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: The Walrus on April 08, 2020, 04:34:58 PM
Comparative advantage means that things are produced where it is most productive.
...
Yes you can stop outsourcing but the price is either smaller quantity or worse quality. or both

So, that implies that only very few companies/countries/societies are inherently able to produce a specific product or provide a special service. Otherwise, this argument ends here, right?

I am so bold to say that if there is a local or regulatory disadvantage it can be accounted for via subsidies or taxation. I don't get how this is not a no-brainer.

This discussion is silly! Of course, almost any country in the world would be able to produce essential medical products and services locally. It's not a question of if, but how. Or willingness for that matter.

And it would obviously improve availability in case of emergency.

Any country is able to produce any product.  Comparative advantage comes down to who can make it most efficiently.  Our entire society has shifted from everyone doing everything themselves to individual areas doing what they do best.  This is similar to the changing lifestyle from the jack-of-all trades mentality of the 19th century to the specialization in the 20th century.  How many individuals do their own carpentry, plumbing, or electric work today?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on April 08, 2020, 05:26:50 PM
Comparative advantage means that things are produced where it is most productive.
...
Yes you can stop outsourcing but the price is either smaller quantity or worse quality. or both

So, that implies that only very few companies/countries/societies are inherently able to produce a specific product or provide a special service. Otherwise, this argument ends here, right?

I am so bold to say that if there is a local or regulatory disadvantage it can be accounted for via subsidies or taxation. I don't get how this is not a no-brainer.

This discussion is silly! Of course, almost any country in the world would be able to produce essential medical products and services locally. It's not a question of if, but how. Or willingness for that matter.

And it would obviously improve availability in case of emergency.

Any country is able to produce any product.  Comparative advantage comes down to who can make it most efficiently.  Our entire society has shifted from everyone doing everything themselves to individual areas doing what they do best.  This is similar to the changing lifestyle from the jack-of-all trades mentality of the 19th century to the specialization in the 20th century.  How many individuals do their own carpentry, plumbing, or electric work today?
Adam Smith, "Wealth of Nations",  the "Manufacture of Pins & Division of Labour", now distorted.

Adam Smith also wrote on the need to moderate and regulate the markets.
Why ? To ensure the economy serves the people, not people the economy.
A bad joke. It bred "Social Darwinism" and its foul progeny - "Creative Destruction", etc etc etc

The statements in the posts above on Comparative Advantage are only true if the markets are not distorted.
e.g. Transport costs from China to Europe are cheaper than transport costs across Europe. Shipping fuel is untaxed, land transport fuel is taxed, often relatively heavily.

The markets are totally distorted.
Have you noticed the procession of the Warriors of The Free Markets banging on Governments' doors for ginormous handouts.
Won't the invisible hand of the market sort it out?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 08, 2020, 05:40:35 PM
We need coordinate globally.

Also there are a ton of products we don´t really need.

Just some random examples:
EU is working on rules for 1 charger so people can just own 1 instead of having 7 for all the different devices they have. This alone would save tons of energy.

Planned obsolescence/must have newest stuff.

We are used to buying the newest phones to have the coolest gadgets or buying a new car so you have a newer one then the neighbor.

This can be changed. Tesla is building cars that should last longer then our usual automobiles. Not running on explosions helps but i am quite sure the ICE manufacturers are not building the best cars they can for economic reasons.

Then we buy tons of crap we hardly ever use, we could also not do that.

Then there is level 2 of handling it globally. Living standards should converge.

And the amount of money people get payed and have should converge too.

Now before someone shouts socialism i would like to mention that this is about solidarity.
The added effect is that it reduces pollution because the very rich pollute a lot more then average income people.

And there is another effect. Research into south or middle american indian societies during periods of climate change showed that highly stratified societies were much more likely to collapse then those who were more equal. Basically the latter could divert all their resources to solve the problem at hand while those with a non productive elite (like most of todays rich) failed to act in time and collapsed.

So the keyword is solidarity. We are one species on one planet. We also have only 1 future which is more and more likely to be really bad if we keep ignoring what science reports about reality.

Basically we have to get beyond nation states but that is the really hard part.
Would free up shit tons of resources.

In fact you could do beautiful things if you diverted half the fraud in the Pentagon to useful investments.


Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 08, 2020, 06:06:57 PM
Also

Coronavirus: Exploiting nature 'drives outbreaks of new diseases'

There are strong indications of a wildlife source and a link to trade.

In the latest study, researchers trawled scientific papers for reports of diseases that have crossed from animals to humans, then combined this data with information on extinction risk compiled by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN).

Wild animals at risk of extinction due to human exploitation were found to carry over twice as many viruses that can cause human disease as threatened species listed for other reasons. The same was true for threatened species at risk due to loss of habitat.

"As natural habitat is diminished, wildlife come into closer contact with people," Dr Christine Johnson of the University of California, Davis, US, told BBC News,

"Wildlife also shift their distributions to accommodate anthropogenic activities and modification of the natural landscape. This has hastened disease emergence from wildlife, which put us at risk of pandemics because we are all globally connected through travel and trade."

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-52204724
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sebastian Jones on April 08, 2020, 06:12:29 PM
An observation out of the blue from a librarian in Edmonton, via Twitter:

"If anything, COVID-19 could be called the Cruise Ship Virus. It may not have originated there, but that totally helped spread it around the world. And unlike China, the cruise ship industry deserves all the hatred and judgement."

Having gone nose-to-nose against the industry, I'm inclined to agree with her. Ask Australia who they blame for their outbreak...
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 08, 2020, 06:30:29 PM
Well Norovirus might object since that is the OG CSV.  ::)

They are one of those excesses which need rethinking. The effect on the target destinations are annoying and if you look just at numbers you probably find out that as a country you earn more from tourists that actually visit your country out of interest and sleep and eat locally.

Long ago i went on a trip to Greece with my mom. Her travel friend had an accident so she needed someone and i joined because the trip was great. So one day the guide announced we would have to go to bed early and get up at 4 or 5. Pretty early for a holiday. This allowed us to go to Delphi at opening hour which was the only way to avoid the crowds due to docking times and travel time from closest port.

We had 2 hours or so and then they came and it ruined the experience. We could look at things in detail but when the busses arrived that was not possible. Basically we were still there because our Greek guide also wanted to show us the crowds and how bad it got.

High end destinations like Venice should just plain refuse them.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on April 09, 2020, 09:48:06 AM
Regarding the localization of production, for some things it's just not possible. Many countries today do not, and can not, produce enough food to feed their population. Not enough available land, not enough available water, or in other words too much population. There is not much such countries can do to alleviate the problem, besides keeping increased emergency stocks of key food items. However even the best stockpiles cannot last more than a year or so in case of global trade collapse, be it due to plague, war, general food shortages or what have you.
Localizing medical production makes a lot of sense and is feasible, though of course costly. Consumer electronics and clothes people can do without for a long while, so localizing such will not be worth the extra cost. But food is the real monster in the room.
Of course, keeping your population in check and navigating demographics to sustainable levels could help, but no one is going to do that unfortunately.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 09, 2020, 10:14:27 AM
Quote
Of course, keeping your population in check and navigating demographics to sustainable levels could help, but no one is going to do that unfortunately.
oren, actually Japan, Europe and even the United States (sans immigration) are doing or have already done that.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 09, 2020, 10:49:42 AM
Regarding the above, a total fertility ratio world map. Basically blue is shrinking population, green is stable/slowly growing, red/yellow is exponential growth.
The way to reduce births is "simple": reduce poverty, educate everyone (especially women), urbanization
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 09, 2020, 01:36:30 PM
Paul Krugman referencing the Financial Times on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1248205705737314304

Quote
"Bank of England to directly finance extra government spending.

Move allows ministers to spend more in the short term to combat coronavirus without tapping the gilts market."

This is basically the equivalent of minting a trillion-dollar platinum coin. It basically shows that advanced countries that borrow in their own currencies don't face financing constraints.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2020, 03:13:37 PM
Fauci on Life After Coronavirus: We Should Never Shake Hands Again
Quote
The coronavirus will be the end of the handshake as we know it, if Dr. Anthony Fauci has his way.

The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease, one of the leading experts in the fight against COVID-19 the U.S., told the Wall Street Journal podcast on Tuesday that when the country begins to loosen lockdown restrictions, some behaviors must change.

“When you gradually come back, you don’t jump into it with both feet,” Fauci told podcast host Kate Linebaugh on The Journal, talking about what life might look like when it eventually starts returning to normal. “You say, what are the things you could still do and still approach normal? One of them is absolute compulsive hand-washing. The other is you don’t ever shake anybody’s hands.”

“I don’t think we should ever shake hands ever again, to be honest with you. Not only would it be good to prevent coronavirus disease; it probably would decrease instances of influenza dramatically in this country,” he later added. …
https://time.com/5818134/anthony-fauci-never-shake-hands-coronavirus/

Some alternatives:  Single nod.  Bowing.  Raised hand as if taking a pledge.  Palm or fist placed over the heart.  The Namaste hand position in front of the chest.  The Vulcan salute.  :)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: The Walrus on April 09, 2020, 03:19:42 PM
Regarding the localization of production, for some things it's just not possible. Many countries today do not, and can not, produce enough food to feed their population. Not enough available land, not enough available water, or in other words too much population. There is not much such countries can do to alleviate the problem, besides keeping increased emergency stocks of key food items. However even the best stockpiles cannot last more than a year or so in case of global trade collapse, be it due to plague, war, general food shortages or what have you.
Localizing medical production makes a lot of sense and is feasible, though of course costly. Consumer electronics and clothes people can do without for a long while, so localizing such will not be worth the extra cost. But food is the real monster in the room.
Of course, keeping your population in check and navigating demographics to sustainable levels could help, but no one is going to do that unfortunately.

Much closer to the truth than the claim that markets are distorted.  Yes, governments do act to distort the markets by enacting taxes and regulations.  Even in the complete absence of government and heavy-handed business tactics (monopolies, collusion, etc.), the markets will reflect the true cost of a product of service at each locality.  Raw materials are more readily available in many places.  This includes food, as mentioned previously.  Transportation costs vary dramatically, based on distance and terrain.  Until all peoples of the world enjoy the same level of wealth, there will be significant wage differences.  Since this has occurred since the beginning of time, I do not see this conditions easing any time soon.  Although, the production of cheap goods has moved over time; in Asia it has moved from Japan to Korea to China to Vietnam, etc.

Most places find it cost effective to produce what they can locally and import the rest.  That leaves more money and resources to better serve the populace.  It is only in times of crisis that these practices become burdensome.  Just like an individual will choose to do certain tasks that he is most capable or most important, and hire out the rest, countries and other municipalities will do the same.

The production of food is not the real issue, but storage of food.  Certain foods can be grown only in certain locales, will others grow poorly in transplanted areas.  While many of us prefer fresh produce and meats, preservation practices can maintain a long-term supply.  Poorer areas are lacking this method, and must rely on immediate food sources.  A much higher proportion of their food spoils due to poor transportation and storage means compared to the wealthier nations.  History tells us that population will not be kept in check until prosperity rises.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 09, 2020, 03:49:33 PM
Fauci needs to stop being scared of C19 and start being greedy. We can end influenza and most respiratory viruses using the infrastructure we create to make nCoV extinct.

We can return to normal 5 weeks after the clown in the WH stops cowering from his responsibilities and wears a mask like everyone else has to.

We can make this virus go functionally extinct.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Juan C. García on April 10, 2020, 05:22:52 AM
I didn't like it on "Unsorted". It should be here!  ;)

The Era of the Virus

Captain Paul Watson (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mlRg-cLKR2U): "With the Era of the Virus upon us, without urgent changes to our habits and lifestyle, combined with climate change, we will see more events such as this outbreak occur. But there is hope. Everyone can play a part to solve this problem. Listen to me here (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwJ6W9MgZW0) explain more on this..."
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Human Habitat Index on April 10, 2020, 06:45:42 AM
Is the data reliable ?

This from the Australian Government :-

"The reliability of COVID-19 tests is uncertain due to the limited evidence base."

"The extent to which a positive PCR result correlates with the infectious state of an individual is still being determined"

"Human coronaviruses circulate frequently every year and cause a common cold type illness. Cross reaction with antibodies formed by current and past exposure to seasonal human coronavirus infections can cause false-positive results. In addition, the false-negative rate associated with these lateral flow devices is not known."

"COVID-19 is an emerging viral infectious disease. There is limited evidence available to assess the accuracy and clinical utility of available COVID-19 tests."


https://www.tga.gov.au/covid-19-testing-australia-information-health-professionals
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 10, 2020, 04:59:21 PM
Want to Stop the Next Pandemic? Start Protecting Wildlife Habitats

Quote
There are four critical facets of pandemic prevention, according to Lee Hannah, senior scientist at Conservation International. Three of them make immediate sense against the backdrop of our current emergency: stockpile masks and respirators; have testing infrastructure ready; and ban the global wildlife trade, including the open animal markets where COVID-19 may have first infected people.

His fourth recommendation is more grandiose: “Take care of nature.”

The assault on ecosystems that allowed COVID-19 to jump from animals to humans went far beyond merchants hunting and selling rare wildlife. Biodiversity—that is, the health of the entire ecosystem—can restrain pathogens before they ever leave the wild. “We need to tell people right now that there is a series of things we need to do once we’re out of this mess to make sure it never happens again,” Hannah says.

The role of biodiversity in disease prevention has received increased attention of late. In a 2015 “state of knowledge review” of biodiversity and human health by the United Nations, scientists wrote that “an ecological approach to disease, rather than a simplistic ‘one germ, one disease’ approach, will provide a richer understanding of disease-related outcomes.” Recent research has given more support to the idea that biodiversity protection in one part of the world can prevent novel diseases from emerging and leaping into another.

It’s a numbers game, in part. Not all species in a community are equally susceptible to a given disease, nor are they all equally efficient transmitters. In diverse ecosystems well separated from human habitations, viruses ebb and flow without ever having a chance to make it to the big time.

But as people move in, those protections begin to break down. Disrupted ecosystems tend to lose their biggest predators first, and what they leave behind are smaller critters that live fast, reproduce in large numbers, and have immune systems more capable of carrying disease without succumbing to it. When there are only a few species left, they’re good at carrying disease, and they thrive near people, there may be nothing between a deadly pathogen and all of humanity.

“Virus spillover risk” from wildlife to people rises as contact increases between them, according to research published Tuesday by a team of researchers led by Christine Kreuder Johnson of the One Health Institute at University of California, Davis. Almost half of the new diseases that jumped from animals to humans (called zoonotic pathogens) after 1940 can be traced to changes in land use, agriculture, or wildlife hunting. SARS, Ebola, West Nile, Lyme, MERS, and others all fit the profile. There may be 10,000 mammalian viruses potentially dangerous to people.

Link >> https://time.com/5817363/wildlife-habitats-disease-pandemics/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 10, 2020, 05:48:08 PM
I made the prediction awhile back that the US government would buy the shale industry in order to backstop cheap oil even if it was unprofitable to pump and process. We are fast approaching the time when that transition occurs and the chaos that Covid-19 has produced will ensure the cooperation of congress in facilitating the transfer.
 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-energy-assets-exclusive/exclusive-u-s-banks-prepare-to-seize-energy-assets-as-shale-boom-goes-bust-idUKKCN21R3JI

So the government gives more zero interest capital to the” to big to fail “ banks who will take over the shale producers . In effect a government takeover . The banks can’t be allowed to fail so the American public will own the oil produced at a loss until the coming depression crashes everything .
 Shock doctrine used on the people who elect idiots and thieves .
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 10, 2020, 07:35:35 PM
XKCD Comic (@xkcdComic) 3/30/20, 9:28 PM
Pathogen Resistance xkcd.com/2287/    m.xkcd.com/2287/
https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1244798583880044544
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 12, 2020, 11:04:21 PM
So I read that the chances that African Swine Fever is introduced to North America are reduced because of lockdowns and less tourism.
Car accidents must be at record lows? And car insurance companies must be paying out fewer claims?
Emissions down.
Some wilding of urban settings
More gardening I am sure
Probably less influenza and colds
People cooking their own dinners
Online meetings replace business trips, energy saved
Online meeting sites and shipping companies profit
We don’t need to shake hands, formal greetings not necessary .
Telephone calls to whole phone list

Trying to be positive.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 12, 2020, 11:58:38 PM
Bruce wrote:
Quote
Car accidents must be at record lows?

Not in Minnesota, for some reason:

Traffic deaths spike in Minnesota despite low vehicle volume

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/04/09/traffic-deaths-spike-in-minnesota-despite-low-vehicle-volume
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 13, 2020, 12:02:31 AM
"Even in the complete absence of government..."

In the complete absence of government, you don't have markets. You have pirates.

(Can we drop this silly conversation, or shift it over to another thread, please? :) )
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Human Habitat Index on April 13, 2020, 03:10:41 AM
Kay Mullis, Nobel winner for his invention of the PCR, advised that PCR was a qualitative rather than a quantitative test.

This explains the high number of asymptomatic people identified, because of trivial amounts of virus being detected that is not enough to cause disease.

The data is not reliable.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 13, 2020, 12:49:33 PM
The serologies I've seen online show there is a large proportion of "weak positives". Weak positives may imply that antibody counts were low or there is contamination with antibodies of another coronavirus.

I read this a few days ago but because of the unknown source and format, I didn't post it before.


Community Serum Antibody Testing For Past COVID-19 Infection.

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.199/26c.881.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/Community-Serum-Testing-For-Past-COVID-19-Infection.pdf

Quote
Here, the first community serum testing for SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the USA is reported. Serum samples were collected
April 2nd to April 4th, 2020 from 40 people in Oregon, then tested for SARS-CoV-2 Spike S1 IgG antibodies with an ELISA.
Participants represent a semi random sample of individuals who have not been diagnosed or tested for SARS-CoV-2
infection.
Within the testing cohort of 40 people, many report a severe cold or flu since January 1, 2020. The sample pool is
composed of men and women with an age range of 24 to 73 years old. Of the 40 samples, 6 were collected from
homeless individuals living on the streets of Portland, OR
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on April 13, 2020, 07:38:22 PM
Could covid-19 be a defining moment for the USA's place in the world? This writer thinks so.
Lesson? Actions have consequences, especially unintended ones ?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/12/us-global-reputation-rock-bottom-donald-trump-coronavirus
]US's global reputation hits rock-bottom over Trump's coronavirus response
International relations expert warns policy failure could do lasting damage as president insults allies and undermines alliances
Quote
...thanks largely to Trump, a parallel disaster is unfolding across the world: the ruination of America’s reputation as a safe, trustworthy, competent international leader and partner.

Call it the Trump double-whammy. Diplomatically speaking, the US is on life support.

“The Trump administration’s self-centred, haphazard, and tone-deaf response [to Covid-19] will end up costing Americans trillions of dollars and thousands of otherwise preventable deaths,” wrote Stephen Walt, professor of international relations at Harvard.

“But that’s not the only damage the United States will suffer. Far from ‘making America great again’, this epic policy failure will further tarnish [its] reputation as a country that knows how to do things effectively.”

This adverse shift could be permanent, Walt warned. Since taking office in 2017, Trump has insulted America’s friends, undermined multilateral alliances and chosen confrontation over cooperation. Sanctions, embargoes and boycotts aimed at China, Iran and Europe have been globally divisive.

Trump’s ineptitude and dishonesty in handling the pandemic, which has left foreign observers as well as Americans gasping in disbelief, is proving a bridge too far.

Erratic behaviour, tolerated in the past, is now seen as downright dangerous. It’s long been plain, at least to many in Europe, that Trump could not be trusted. Now he is seen as a threat. It is not just about failed leadership. It’s about openly hostile, reckless actions.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 13, 2020, 11:27:47 PM
^^
Trump is certainly puting the cherry on top, but America's reputation has been tattered for decades.
American kids have been wearing Maple Leaf's on their backpacks while hiking through Europe for as long as I can remember.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 14, 2020, 06:21:23 AM
Quote
American kids have been wearing Maple Leaf's on their backpacks while hiking through Europe for as long as I can remember.
Yup, I had a UN flag stitched to my backpack in the '70s.  And having lived a couple years in New Zealand, I didn't sound like an American (except to every Kiwi I ever met!).
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 14, 2020, 07:13:59 AM
Quote
American kids have been wearing Maple Leaf's on their backpacks while hiking through Europe for as long as I can remember.
Yup, I had a UN flag stitched to my backpack in the '70s.  And having lived a couple years in New Zealand, I didn't sound like an American (except to every Kiwi I ever met!).
Many Europeans assosiate national state flags to nationalism and wars, so constantly flying a flag is quite a faux pas. F.e. I've no trouble with those small hand held ones by sport fans, but to attach one more or less permanently in garments/personal bags makes me suspect such person as a nationalist/even neonazi sympatizer. Canadians cannot be neither, so it's good  ;)
The days when the flag are flown in Finland are anyway optional,  and leaving one to the pole might in time make people suspect the owner of the house is dead.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 02:57:38 PM
Lesson learned the hard way:

Prominent Virginia Pastor Dies From COVID-19; Daughter Urges Congregation To Stay At Home
04/13/20
   •   Bishop Gerald O. Glenn dies from COVID-19 complications on April 11
   •   His last service on March 22 defied orders to limit large gatherings
   •   His daughter called on the congregation to follow social distancing orders
https://www.ibtimes.com/prominent-virginia-pastor-dies-covid-19-daughter-urges-congregation-stay-home-2957870


The snarky version:
Virginia pastor who defiantly held church service dies of coronavirus
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/virginia-pastor-who-held-packed-church-service-dies-of-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 03:03:41 PM
...
Car accidents must be at record lows? And car insurance companies must be paying out fewer claims?
...

Even better:  rebates!

California orders auto insurers to refund premiums due to coronavirus
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/california-insurance-premiums-refund-covid-19/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 14, 2020, 07:37:06 PM
I read somewhere people are driving more recklessly, figuring laws are not being enforced, and this is canceling some of the benefit.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2020, 10:30:50 PM
This article is U.S.-centric.  How are other folks handling transgressors?

Don’t yell, “Move back!” Instead, emphasize that since you or anyone could have the virus without knowing it, it’s best to stay six feet apart, in case they hadn’t heard.
Here's How To Get Others to Follow Social Distancing Rules
https://time.com/5819816/coronavirus-social-distancing/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: KiwiGriff on April 15, 2020, 07:33:47 AM
Jacinda Ardern and ministers take 20% pay cut in solidarity with those hit by Covid-19
New Zealand PM says: ‘If there was ever a time to close the gap between groups of people across New Zealand in different positions, it is now’

New Zealand’s prime minister has said she and other ministers will take a temporary 20% pay cut to show solidarity with those affected by the coronavirus outbreak, as the death toll continues to rise.

Jacinda Ardern said it was important the government’s most highly paid politicians show “leadership and solidarity” with workers on the frontline and those who had lost their livelihoods. Ardern, government ministers and public service chief executives will take the cut for six months, effective immediately.

The six-month pay cut will reduce Ardern’s annual salary of $470,000 by $47,104 to $423,945. Cabinet ministers would take a cut of NZ$26,900 each from $296,007, while deputy prime minister Winston Peters’ salary of $334,734 would be cut by $33,473.

Dr Ashley Bloomfield, the director-general of health who has led the elimination response to the crisis, confirmed he would “definitely” take a pay cut too, as would opposition leader Simon Bridges.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/15/jacinda-ardern-and-ministers-take-20-pay-cut-in-solidarity-with-those-hit-by-covid-19
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 15, 2020, 08:44:13 AM
I'm growing to become a Jacinda Ardern fanboi.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: KiwiGriff on April 15, 2020, 08:50:31 AM
Note: as would opposition leader Simon Bridges of our right wing conservative political party .
It is New Zealand together not just one woman alone.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 15, 2020, 08:57:23 AM
It takes a lot to make me a fanboi. Not only one single thing.

Steter tropfen höhlt den Stein. (Constant dripping wears the stone.)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: KiwiGriff on April 15, 2020, 09:20:44 AM
Fair enough Jacinda Ardern has done our nation proud.
She could be considered the anti Trump.

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 15, 2020, 12:24:42 PM
I'm getting increasingly worried about how this crisis is going to be exploited. Mass surveillance, mandatory vaccinations, billions of people under house arrest, any criticism stamped out, massive shifts of wealth, lower and middle classes turned into serfs after just 1-2 months of completely shutting down economies, people scared shitless, happily handing over what remains of their civil liberties. No terrorism or Soviet Union could ever match this 'invisible enemy'. I think we have a winner.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 15, 2020, 01:10:01 PM
And don't rule out starvation, even as farmers are plowing under crops because it's not profitable to bring them to market. What a gloriously efficient system we have!  >:(

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 15, 2020, 01:22:54 PM
One of my hobbies is collecting paper money. One of my Dad’s hobbies was coin collecting. This could put an end to cash.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 15, 2020, 07:45:59 PM
Well this is one other thing they are exploring (but that is basically an ongoing project). Just add it to the things Neven mentioned earlier.

Basically we are stuck with idiots who cannot coordinate to solve important problems like a health care crisis or global warming. They are playing some different game.

Basic lesson; why do we have all these morons in charge? Why are we running the world in such a retarded way?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 15, 2020, 08:16:54 PM
I'm not sure that lessons will be learned until the 1st wave is viewed through the mirrors as we race headlong into the next (calamitous) phase.


Every small business man that I know personally has closed up shop.
Their former employees are on the dole & will struggle to keep a roof over their heads.
Half can't look for work because the kids aren't in school.
The (former) employers are scrambling for government handouts. Some had less tucked away than their employees.


Once some of the dust settles we'll have plenty of experts explaining how things failed so catastrophically over such a broad area and in such a short period. If we vote for their guy we'll never need to worry again.


We'll certainly be able to trust these pundits.
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 15, 2020, 10:02:32 PM
Chloroquine Study Called Off After Irregular Heartbeats Detected in Patients
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.07.20056424v1.full.pdf

Researchers called off a small Brazilian study on the anti-malaria drug chloroquine’s ability to combat coronavirus after some participants experienced potentially fatal heart complications.


This study was not rationally set up to be safe or effective.  ... It borders on criminal to give high doses that can be predicted to risk death without checking blood levels before subsequent doses. 

This is not rocket science.

Whoever OKed this study design should be persecuted.

...

Story about a doctor that treated covid patients with some success. See link.

...

His story was reported in local media and the next thing that happened.... the Medical Inspection warned him that he should not do things like that.
[/quote]

Jump to the original post for the long version but basically we had a doctor who used his experience from the tropics to improvise and save lives and one of our bureaucratic instances stopped that because saving lives with ´random formulations´is obviously dangerous.

You would think of the people of the inspection as people trying to keep you safe from weird medicine experiments because that is sort of their job but it is also some special interest group limiting what can be done.

Arguably any ´battlefield medicine mix´that works is worth inquiring but they are insisting on procedures as usual. This is just one example of a (semi) governmental organisation being captured by special interests.

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: johnm33 on April 15, 2020, 11:50:09 PM
no comment https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920300996
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 16, 2020, 11:34:49 AM
Why discuss here which medications/vaccines will win the race? That is not a lesson learned. Sure, scientists will learn something, PR people in pharmaceutical companies will learn something, but that's not a real lesson. Quite the contrary. Overly focusing on medications/vaccines is nothing more but fighting symptoms, and that's never a real lesson. A real lesson is learned when one understands the cause of a problem. Only then can the problem be solved.

Let me repeat from my OP what in my view is the cause of the problem:

1. the origin of the virus, two possibilities:
a) the bat soup story - caused by the widespread destruction of ecosystems (civilisation getting closer and closer to wild animals with hereto unknown diseases, increased demand for exotic foods/bushmeat, etc), which in turn is caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.
b) virus escaped by accident from lab - research into diseases with pandemic potential is also fueled by the profit motive, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.
c) virus engineered and let loose - like b), but worse.

2. the spreading of the virus - caused by globalised markets and mass tourism, both caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

3. the impact of the virus - massive air pollution, an adulterated food supply full of addictive substances, and overmedication have reduced general population health to the point that a virus can have a massive impact. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

4. the response to the virus - governments totally unprepared, health care systems potentially overwhelmed because of years of cost-cutting and lobbying, millions of people uninsured in some third-world countries. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

5. the exploitation of the virus - as said, mass surveillance, mandatory vaccinations, billions of people under house arrest, any criticism stamped out, massive shifts of wealth, lower and middle classes turned into serfs after just 1-2 months of completely shutting down economies, small entrepreneurs forced out of business, people scared shitless, happily handing over what remains of their civil liberties. All of this is now done by politicians and mega-corporations to maximize profits, so that concentrated wealth can grow and further concentrate endlessly.

So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. This is the problem. If enough people understand that this is the problem and how it works, the solution becomes self-evident: taking away the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. The best way to do this, is to put a cap on how much an individual is allowed to own, and then enforce it legally, culturally and socially.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 16, 2020, 04:55:05 PM
Quote
So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. 

Ironic, then, that the pandemic appears to be a most successful solution for reducing accumulated wealth.  With the global economy shutting down, personal and corporate profits worldwide have turned to losses.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: dnem on April 16, 2020, 05:30:31 PM
Sorry, a few days back I veered into a discussion about globalization and re-localizing production over on the Global Recession thread and then said I'd take it over here. I then promptly forgot to follow up on my post here.

Anyway, it's been batted back and forth here quite a bit since.

A few points. A lot of "poverty alleviation" in the developing world is a mirage. Urbanization as a "cure" for rural "poverty" is in many ways a mirage. Comparing money wages for work at a FOXCONN factory (working 12 hours days, living in a dormitory) with a former agrarian life is meaningless.  It says nothing about true value and life satisfaction.  I realize that many metrics will improve (life expectancy, literacy, etc.) but still, using wages earned in the money economy as the primary criterion of "development" is misguided.  Especially if the development is, itself, fundamentally unsustainable.

Bill Rees puts the CV crisis in the context of our larger sustainability crisis:
https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/04/06/The-Earth-Is-Telling-Us-We-Must-Rethink-Our-Growth-Society/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 16, 2020, 06:11:50 PM
Ironic, then, that the pandemic appears to be a most successful solution for reducing accumulated wealth.  With the global economy shutting down, personal and corporate profits worldwide have turned to losses.

Yes, the problem with concentrated wealth is that it destroys itself once it reaches a certain size (like bacteria in a petri dish, you might say). But then the vicious cycle starts again, often at a slightly larger scale than last time. This time, we're talking planetary scale.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on April 17, 2020, 06:07:57 AM
Quote
So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. 

Ironic, then, that the pandemic appears to be a most successful solution for reducing accumulated wealth.  With the global economy shutting down, personal and corporate profits worldwide have turned to losses.

In my view:
Lessons learned from the 2008 financial crash is that the very rich got much richer fast and it were the poor and less rich that got to pay for the profit losses. It is a 2-way pump (the business cycle). I observe that the very rich profit from good economic times and also from bad economic times. How far that goes I don't know because you can't pluck feathers from a bald chicken.


Empathy.
At this very moment there are likely 100000's of poor people dying from COVID-19 in poor countries all over the world with their families in tears and desperation. Without access to modern healtcare and not food secure. The bottom rung of the prosperity ladder. The hapless victims of economic growth and globalisation. In that sense they are very close to living nature.

India? Sub-saharan Africa? We don't see these people and don't hear about them but this must be happening already and getting worse. The number above may be a wild underestimation.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on April 17, 2020, 01:53:45 PM
Very precise Nanning.  Something we regularly shred AGW deniers for.

there are likely
this must be
may be a

It is also possible that, today, hundreds of thousands of poor may not be dying from Covid19,  It is clear from the stats that underprivileged are dying in larger numbers, but not that many.

There are several reputable recording agencies following the stats.  Yes countries are not recording the full picture, including the UK which only lists those who died in hospitals,  but sub Sahara Africa is not yet descending into chaos.  If it was we would have seen it.  It is not guaranteed that it won't, but it has not yet happened.

It is no good trying to "learn lessons" viewed from a political bias and belief.  That way is the way of the AGW denier.  It is not the way of science.

Our lessons learned have to have a basis of scientific fact.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 17, 2020, 02:59:20 PM
"...sub Sahara Africa is not yet descending into chaos.  If it was we would have seen it."

Only if you don't bother to look (which is pretty much the norm for most Westerners)

Chaos' in Kenyan slum as Covid-19 takes toll

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/15/kenya-africa-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-sevenzo-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus-intl/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 17, 2020, 03:42:17 PM
Please repost that on the Covid thread if it is not already there wili.

This thread is about the lessons we can learn from this crisis so discussions about deaths or direct economic fallout should go into their respective threads.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on April 17, 2020, 03:49:20 PM
Thank you wili for that rebuttal of NeilT's assumptions.


I've learned from observing that in general individual countries cannot make replacement technology in a short time, such as, in this case; tests, masks and ventilators. In other words: If the supply of essential technological products falls away, there will be no replacements within, say, a couple of months. This period depends on the complexity of the product, the supply of other essential parts/resources of the product and the technological level of the country.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on April 17, 2020, 07:00:18 PM
"...sub Sahara Africa is not yet descending into chaos.  If it was we would have seen it."

Only if you don't bother to look (which is pretty much the norm for most Westerners)

Chaos' in Kenyan slum as Covid-19 takes toll

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/15/kenya-africa-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-sevenzo-pkg-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/coronavirus-intl/

The key words in that CNN first page you posted were.

Quote
raising fears about the potential spread of the novel coronavirus.

The reported figures do not bear it out.  Yet.

Perhaps that is a lesson we need to learn from Covid19.  The press "fears" are not always reality. Be that the economic collapse because of AGW mitigation or potential Covid19 deaths.

I prefer hard stats and hard stats on Kenya, right now, are 246 cases with 11 dead!
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on April 17, 2020, 07:02:32 PM
This thread is about the lessons we can learn from this crisis so discussions about deaths or direct economic fallout should go into their respective threads.

So it's OK to surmise that we "think" something is going on and will have an impact. But it is not OK to show that "thinking" is not a substitute for actual facts?

Isn't that what we've had to deal with on AGW for 30 years or more?  Don't we want some real lessons from this whole mess?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 17, 2020, 07:30:35 PM
This thread is about the lessons we can learn from this crisis so discussions about deaths or direct economic fallout should go into their respective threads.

So it's OK to surmise that we "think" something is going on and will have an impact. But it is not OK to show that "thinking" is not a substitute for actual facts?

Isn't that what we've had to deal with on AGW for 30 years or more?  Don't we want some real lessons from this whole mess?

This is a more general thread.

Your last post could be countered by saying there is no testing in Kenya etc but that whole discussion should be in the main Covid thread which is about the numbers.

I don´t disagree with ´The press "fears" are not always reality.´ but i just don´t want a debate about Kenya numbers to back that up here since that is already the gist of the main Covid thread anyway (what do these stats actually mean not Kenya per se). 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 18, 2020, 01:19:03 PM
Quote
@existentialcoms

Everyone is so obsessed with "the
economy" that they don't realize
that if production and consumption
both drop together intentionally, it is
fine. We don't need endlessly
increasing production.

Only the capitalists and banks need
that. Humanity would be fine with
30% less GDP.

(https://i.redd.it/1a2qn0kywgt41.jpg)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 18, 2020, 01:36:55 PM
The social isolation required to address the COVID-19 pandemic evokes lessons NASA has learned from life aboard the Space Station:  the best choice for a group member may not be the smartest person, but rather the person who can best get along with others.  Also, the vital importance of exercise. ;)

Stephen Colbert chats with Astronaut Jessica Meir aboard the International Space Station about social isolation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UZB0RcNbG4
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 19, 2020, 05:34:34 AM
Fauci needs to stop being scared of C19 and start being greedy. We can end influenza and most respiratory viruses using the infrastructure we create to make nCoV extinct.

We can return to normal 5 weeks after the clown in the WH stops cowering from his responsibilities and wears a mask like everyone else has to.

We can make this virus go functionally extinct.

No.

Viruses will pop up to reduce any vunerable population.

The only REAL answer is to make a population less vulnerable (aka: localized).

Or buy 3 teslas.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 19, 2020, 05:39:41 AM
One thing that I expect will happen from this at an individual level is that a lot more people will start to maintain a store of long lasting goods that they need at home...

The only way to actually do this is to have livestock and a serious vegetable garden.

Micro nutriets (which are essential to a high functioning immune system) do not store well.

If you aren't reproducing your livestock or germinating seedlings from your last batch of crops, you basically have nothing.


Of course, some macro nutriet food supplies is WAY better than nothing.

But it should not be confused with a genuinely functioning system.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on April 19, 2020, 05:46:45 AM
Scarcity is inevitable if you are subsidizing products to produce them locally. The moment the first politicians get elected who has better use for the subsidy funds, scarcity begins.

I have never read something I disagree with more strongly than the above.


The truth is that centralization is absurdly subsidized through the current fiat cabal banking system.

A genuinely free market approach would have most every day needs be locally based and only complex durable capital goods being sourced on a global scale.



Oh wait, all of these morons have blocked me. lol
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: VeliAlbertKallio on April 19, 2020, 07:52:41 PM
 :'( FAMOUS BRITISH SCIENTIST AND IPCC 2007 NOBEL PRIZE TAKER DIES OF CORONAVIRUS

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-52325374  :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 19, 2020, 10:53:38 PM
It's the wrong thread, but I can't believe the last line in that BBC obituary: "As the director general of the UK Met Office, he and weatherman Michael Fish were blamed for the failure to predict the big storm that hit the south of England in 1987."

What kind of a person would end an article that way?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: TerryM on April 19, 2020, 11:01:21 PM
^^
What kind of editor would let it be printed?
Terry
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2020, 03:02:58 PM
Learning from parallels to (and differences from) the past:

In Sept 1918 San Francisco suffered from Spanish Flu pandemic.
We see many of the same human elements as today:
a portion of the population resistant to the measures; a business community crying out for relief; a second wave after an initial loosening; threats to public health officials

https://threader.app/thread/1251936242834563073   
                 (https://twitter.com/timkmak/status/1251936242834563073)

=====
”COVID-19 can be mild enough that some people who have it don’t know they have it. It’s also easily spread, can be transmitted by presymptomatic people and is severe enough to kill a significant share of those who have it. All combined, the novel coronavirus has led to an outbreak that is unusually difficult to track and control. The seismic shift in our everyday lives is happening for a reason.”

Why Did The World Shut Down For COVID-19 But Not Ebola, SARS Or Swine Flu?
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-did-the-world-shut-down-for-covid-19-but-not-ebola-sars-or-swine-flu/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 20, 2020, 08:14:29 PM
Good read!

Coronavirus: why we should be sceptical about the benevolence of billionaires

Link >> https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-we-should-be-sceptical-about-the-benevolence-of-billionaires-136448
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2020, 09:22:43 PM
Lessons on how people’s fear and anger is used by disparate groups for their own purposes:

Pro-gun activists using Facebook groups to push anti-quarantine protests
Quote
A trio of far-right, pro-gun provocateurs is behind some of the largest Facebook groups calling for anti-quarantine protests around the country, offering the latest illustration that some seemingly organic demonstrations are being engineered by a network of conservative activists.

The Facebook groups target Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York, and they appear to be the work of Ben Dorr, the political director of a group called “Minnesota Gun Rights,” and his siblings, Christopher and Aaron. By Sunday, the groups had roughly 200,000 members combined, and they continued to expand quickly, days after President Trump endorsed such protests by suggesting citizens should “liberate” their states.

The online activity helps cement the impression that opposition to the restrictions is more widespread than polling suggests. Nearly 70 percent of Republicans said they supported a national stay-at-home order, according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Ninety-five percent of Democrats backed such a measure in the survey.

Still, the Facebook groups have become digital hubs for the same sort of misinformation spouted in recent days at state capitol buildings — from comparing the virus to the flu to questioning the intentions of scientists working on a vaccine. … 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/04/19/pro-gun-activists-using-facebook-groups-push-anti-quarantine-protests/

Quote
Colin McMillen (@mcmillen) 4/18/20, 6:03 PM
Somebody did some extremely basic WHOIS searching and found that the person who set up all the "reopen $STATENAME" protest web sites is in fact one guy in Jacksonville.
reddit.com/r/maryland/com…
So, most of what's going on here is an organized astroturfing campaign.
https://twitter.com/mcmillen/status/1251632509848297474

Colin McMillen (@mcmillen) 4/18/20, 6:12 PM

even the "group rules from the admins" of the PA and MN groups are word-for-word the same, including this rule against advocating for "explicit violence" (with the wink-wink of "we're for violence if we don't meet our goals, but we can't say so on Facebook or we'll get banned")


Edit: More on the protests:
Fauci warns protests will 'backfire,' slow economic recovery
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/493647-fauci-warns-protests-against-against-stay-at-home-orders-will
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2020, 09:25:55 PM
Another example from history we can learn from today:
Quote
Dana Schwartz (@DanaSchwartzzz) 4/19/20, 1:03 AM
I want to talk about a leader dealing with an epidemic. Queen Lili'uokalani of Hawaii.
- In 1881, while Lili'uokalani was acting queen while her brother was overseas, a smallpox epidemic hit Hawaii. Lili'uokalani acted decisively—she closed all the ports, stopped vessels, and instituted quarantine measures.
- Of course, she was met with considerable anger from the wealthy, mostly American and European plantation owners. But the strategy worked: there were fewer than 300 deaths.
- She valued lives over business interests. That might be why, when she became queen in her own right 10 years later, a group of non-native business owners (aided by the US government) organized a coup.
- (You see, if Hawaii became part of the United States, it would make the sugar industry more profitable for them because of tariffs)
- It's a fascinating story, and an aspect of American history that tends to get brushed under the rug. If you want to learn more, listen to my episode of @NobleBloodTales all about the last queen of Hawaii:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/until-we-meet-again/id1468332063

- This episode was funny because I got a bunch of people sending me emails like "Oh so WHITE MEN are the bad guys HUH! you SJW snowflake" etc etc. And it's like, I am literally just telling the history of what actually happened in real life. 
https://twitter.com/danaschwartzzz/status/1251738280325873666
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Richard Rathbone on April 21, 2020, 12:25:22 AM
It's the wrong thread, but I can't believe the last line in that BBC obituary: "As the director general of the UK Met Office, he and weatherman Michael Fish were blamed for the failure to predict the big storm that hit the south of England in 1987."

What kind of a person would end an article that way?

Its an extremely famous moment. "Earlier today a woman rang the BBC and said there's a hurricane on the way. Don't worry there isn't." The worst blunder ever by a UK weather forecast and it changed how forecasts were done. Thats where the practice of using ensembles comes from. Some editor probably cut the bit about how he was responsible for ensemble forecasting.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 21, 2020, 01:24:34 AM
Good read!

Coronavirus: why we should be sceptical about the benevolence of billionaires

Link >> https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-we-should-be-sceptical-about-the-benevolence-of-billionaires-136448

Here’s a great idea ⬇️  ;)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: greylib on April 21, 2020, 01:24:55 AM
It's the wrong thread, but I can't believe the last line in that BBC obituary: "As the director general of the UK Met Office, he and weatherman Michael Fish were blamed for the failure to predict the big storm that hit the south of England in 1987."

What kind of a person would end an article that way?

Its an extremely famous moment. "Earlier today a woman rang the BBC and said there's a hurricane on the way. Don't worry there isn't." The worst blunder ever by a UK weather forecast and it changed how forecasts were done. Thats where the practice of using ensembles comes from. Some editor probably cut the bit about how he was responsible for ensemble forecasting.
If Michael Fish had given an accurate forecast that night, it would only have saved a very little of the damage - just a few items that people brought inside for protection. There really wasn't enough warning to do more than that. On the other hand, I'm pretty sure that the cost in human life would have been much greater. Mostly, people slept through it. I did, for one. If the warning had been given, there would have been people trying to nail down roofs or rushing to check on their granny, other people called by their bosses to try to mitigate damage, plus a load of idiots out weather-watching.

Twenty-two deaths? It would have been hundreds, possibly even thousands. Good old Michael!
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 21, 2020, 10:09:26 AM
Lessons on how people’s fear and anger is used by disparate groups for their own purposes:

I'm reading theories that politicians very gratefully jumped on board with the WHO panic, because the economy was about to tank big time (for the same reasons as during the previous depression over a decade ago), and this way they have a culprit. Along the way, they exploited the situation to transfer massive amounts of wealth from the people (who will have to pay for it in the future, even though money on that scale is 'virtual' and bears hardly any relationship to the real economy) to concentrated wealth, especially by bailing out industries that are hardly viable.

Could that also be a lesson on how people's fear and anger is used by disparate groups for their own purposes? Could it perhaps be the most important one?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on April 21, 2020, 10:59:24 AM
I have hard time believing politicians deliberately boosted fear and panic, not least because we have plenty of evidence to the contrary (Trump, Johnson, Putin, Iranian leadership etc). Sounds a bit too conspiracy-like to my liking. If anything many of them failed to take any meaningful action to protect their citizens and economies.

But, having said that, I think it's obvious that everybody is using the situation to promote their agenda. Never let a good crisis go to waste, they say.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: El Cid on April 21, 2020, 12:05:12 PM

I'm reading theories that politicians very gratefully jumped on board with the WHO panic, because the economy was about to tank big time (for the same reasons as during the previous depression over a decade ago), and this way they have a culprit. Along the way, they exploited the situation to transfer massive amounts of wealth from the people (who will have to pay for it in the future, even though money on that scale is 'virtual' and bears hardly any relationship to the real economy) to concentrated wealth, especially by bailing out industries that are hardly viable.

I think the opposite is true. The economy had no structural imbalances at the beginning of 2020, especially not in the financial sector, and actually it was on a growing path.

Also, printing money - the current solution - devalues money and fixed income holding (bonds basically) which is bad for savers, ie. the middle class and above. It is actually a redistribution from savers to indebted people.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 21, 2020, 03:13:59 PM
”Merkel has never spoken publicly about why she left science, but perhaps that is because it never really left her. Scientific thinking—her deliberate probing of each new bit of information, her cautious consultation with experts—remains integral to Merkel’s daily decision-making process and her political persona.”

The Secret to Germany’s COVID-19 Success: Angela Merkel Is a Scientist
The chancellor’s rigor in collating information, her honesty in stating what is not yet known, and her composure are paying off.
Quote
BERLIN—Today, we face the global outbreak of a disease that has the potential to catalyze what the historian Eva Schlotheuber terms a “pandemic of the mind.” As misinformation proliferates and lines between fact and fiction are routinely and nonchalantly crossed, world leaders must, now more than ever, illuminate a thoughtful path forward, one reliant on science and evidence-based reasoning. Indeed, many have. One leader goes further still. Trusted by her people to navigate this outbreak’s murky waters, without inciting or succumbing to a pandemic of the mind, one politician is less a commander in chief and more a scientist in chief: Angela Merkel.

For weeks now, Germany’s leader has deployed her characteristic rationality, coupled with an uncharacteristic sentimentality, to guide the country through what has thus far been a relatively successful battle against COVID-19. The pandemic is proving to be the crowning challenge for a politician whose leadership style has consistently been described as analytical, unemotional, and cautious. In her quest for social and economic stability during this outbreak, Merkel enjoys several advantages: a well-respected, coordinated system of scientific and medical expertise distributed across Germany; the hard-earned trust of the public; and the undeniable fact that steady and sensible leadership is suddenly back in style. With 30 years of political experience, and facing an enormous challenge that begs calm, reasoned thinking, Merkel is at peak performance modeling the humble credibility of a scientist at work. And it seems to be paying off, both politically and scientifically. ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/04/angela-merkel-germany-coronavirus-pandemic/610225/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 21, 2020, 07:04:03 PM
I think the opposite is true. The economy had no structural imbalances at the beginning of 2020, especially not in the financial sector, and actually it was on a growing path.

I haven't been following this very thoroughly, as I was doing in 2007, but I've been reading/watching some reports that stated it's all a house of cards, held upright by central banks, and sooner or later there was going to be a big recession anyway (and it should've come earlier). But now, it's all because of COVID-19, and that allows for a massive shift of wealth from deconcentrated (the 99-99.9%) to concentrated (the 0.1-1%).

Quote
Also, printing money - the current solution - devalues money and fixed income holding (bonds basically) which is bad for savers, ie. the middle class and above. It is actually a redistribution from savers to indebted people.

Exactly. But if it can be done to save the cruise-, airline and fracking industries, it can be done to make regular people's lives better as well.

So, who are the indebted people? Companies, states?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2020, 11:31:13 AM
Another reason for the surprising willingness with which politicians have locked down almost the entire world (besides the opportunity for a massive transfer of wealth, huge pharmaceutical profits, mass surveillance, and speeding along the 4th AI Industrial Revolution), from the NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/world/asia/coronavirus-protest-hong-kong-india-lebanon.html), believe it or not:

Quote
‘This Government Is Lucky’: Coronavirus Quiets Global Protest Movements

Millions of demonstrators have been forced or have chosen to stay at home, and organizers wonder when, if and how they will be able to resume.

HONG KONG — Tear gas no longer chokes Hong Kong’s skyscrapers, while protesters’ tents in downtown Beirut have been dismantled. In Delhi, the odd plastic fork and tattered blanket are all that remain of the sit-in that once throttled one of the city’s busiest highways.

Around the globe, the coronavirus pandemic has stilled the anti-establishment protests that erupted last year, bringing months of marches, rallies and riots to a sudden halt. Now, like everything else in the world, the protests face the unanswerable question of what happens next.

How long the pandemic lasts, and how governments and activists respond, will dictate whether the interruption represents a fleeting pause, a moment of metamorphosis, or an unceremonious end for some of the most widespread mass mobilizations in recent history.

The challenges are apparent. Millions of protesters are hunkered down at home, hemmed in by sweeping quarantines and fears for their own health. The daily burden of acquiring face masks or food overshadows debates about corruption and abuse of power.

Almost every government has restricted mass gatherings, ostensibly protecting public health but potentially also constraining future mobilization. Some have used the outbreak to consolidate power or arrest opponents.

But the pandemic’s economic toll, as well as the crises of trust it has inspired in many governments, could fuel fresh outrage. Already, people from Washington State to Peru to Paris have defied lockdown measures they say threaten their jobs, housing and food supplies.

Remember, this is step 5) in the chain of events (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3025.msg260163.html#msg260163): the exploitation of the virus.

Every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. This is the problem. If enough people understand that this is the problem and how it works, the solution becomes self-evident: taking away the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. The best way to do this, is to put a cap on how much an individual is allowed to own, and then enforce it legally, culturally and socially.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 25, 2020, 11:38:59 AM
(https://i.redd.it/5kqfmmht01u41.jpg)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2020, 12:00:35 PM
What are you saying, BK? That anybody who wants to demonstrate, is a fascist, white supremacist deplorable? And that no government is happy with this particular way of exploiting the crisis?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 25, 2020, 12:56:33 PM
I think the people in both pictures are tools of the ruling class. Divide and rule...

I think about the motives here. And i ask myself questions.

Why would someone protest against surveillance now when there isn't even an app? Did they also protest against the mass surveillance we had all these recent decades? Why are people freaked out about the possibility of surveillance, but not about the actual ongoing surveillance?

Is hitting the streets the only possible way to protest?

Why is there so much scapegoating? Why can't we just deal with this without looking for someone to blame? Why is there no sense of community even though we are all in this together?

Look, Neven, i get it. Politically i'm on your side. I oppose mass surveillance, the concentration of wealth, the disregard of science, etc just as you do. But here we are in a world where all this is the brutal reality. Fighting the virus and fighting the political system we are in are two different pairs of shoes.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 25, 2020, 05:13:50 PM
I think the people in both pictures are tools of the ruling class. Divide and rule...

Those are not the people the NYT article refers to. But never mind.

This could be considered a lesson learned:

Coronavirus-hit Lombardy city will turn 35km of streets over to cyclists and pedestrians
The Strade Aperte plan includes temporary cycle lanes and 30kph speed limits.


Milan announces ambitious scheme to reduce car use after lockdown
21 Apr 2020
Quote
Milan is to introduce one of Europe’s most ambitious schemes reallocating street space from cars to cycling and walking, in response to the coronavirus crisis.

The northern Italian city and surrounding Lombardy region are among Europe’s most polluted, and have also been especially hard hit by the Covid-19 outbreak.

Under the nationwide lockdown, motor traffic congestion has dropped by 30-75%, and air pollution with it. City officials hope to fend off a resurgence in car use as residents return to work looking to avoid busy public transport.

The city has announced that 35km (22 miles) of streets will be transformed over the summer, with a rapid, experimental citywide expansion of cycling and walking space to protect residents as Covid-19 restrictions are lifted.

The Strade Aperte plan, announced on Tuesday, includes low-cost temporary cycle lanes, new and widened pavements, 30kph (20mph) speed limits, and pedestrian and cyclist priority streets. The locations include a low traffic neighbourhood on the site of the former Lazzaretto, a refuge for victims of plague epidemics in the 15th and 16th centuries.


In the UK on Monday, Brighton started opening part of the seafront, Madeira Drive, only to pedestrians and cyclists from 8am-8pm. In Barnes, London, businesses and residents have coned off part of the road outside shopping parades to expand pedestrian space and help shoppers keep their distance from each other.

Meanwhile in the Republic of Ireland, Dublin is suspending loading bays and parking spaces to increase space for social distancing, by using removable plastic separators.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/milan-seeks-to-prevent-post-crisis-return-of-traffic-pollution

Image below:  Plans for Corso Buenos Aires before and after the Strade Aperte project.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 25, 2020, 05:39:17 PM
Stop telling MAGA people to not drink bleach. If you do, they will drink it just to prove you wrong. Have pity on the fools.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 25, 2020, 06:42:25 PM
Those are not the people the NYT article refers to

Neven, just to make this clear, my post was not a reply to your post.  ;)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 25, 2020, 06:53:39 PM
Stop telling MAGA people to not drink bleach. If you do, they will drink it just to prove you wrong. Have pity on the fools.

What about their kids? Do they deserve death/battery too?

See, i don't think so either.

Perhaps fighting this BS is not so bad after all?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 12:51:59 AM
… From @TheEconomist today. #ClimateChange
https://twitter.com/cpsross/status/1254024168175276033

And:
https://twitter.com/maven501/status/1254062585583792128

Images below.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on April 26, 2020, 01:18:24 PM
We, in the so-called developed countries (members of the OECD) have built into us the expectation that life expectancy and general health well-being will increase and improve as the years go by.

In the USA and the UK life expectancy in the year or two before Covid-19 had already decreased slightly. Life expectancy in 2020 is reduced significantly, but not just because of covid-19 infections. In the UK many people have not gone to the doctor with health concerns for reasons such as fear of infection and not wishing to burden the health service. As well as the short-term risks of not seeking assistance, long-term effects include reduced early identification of diseases such as cancer, when it is known that early identification is a major factor in successful treatment.

In other words the diversion of a large proportion of health resources to covid-19 seriously impacts the normal activities of the health system. This will have a long-term impact on the health of the population whose health is already adversely impacted by the stresses and strains of lockdown and financial difficulties.

It is looking a bit grim for several years to come.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on April 26, 2020, 02:06:19 PM
Also people are staying away from medical establishments because they are afraid of catching the virus
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 03:39:38 PM
Quote
Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) 4/25/20, 11:55 PM
Two weeks ago, Dr. Fauci said that he'd want Brad Pitt to play him.

Two weeks later, Brad Pitt is playing Dr. Fauci on SNL.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1254257688050954240
Video below.

SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE
Dr. Anthony Fauci Cold Open - SNL - YouTube

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=uW56CL0pk0g

SNL at Home: Brad Pitt destroys Trump with Dr Anthony Fauci impersonation
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/snl-at-home-brad-pitt-anthony-fauci-coronavirus-trump-miley-cyrus-a9484296.html
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 26, 2020, 03:50:18 PM
Sig, your last comment has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 03:57:00 PM
Sig, your last comment has absolutely nothing to do with the topic at hand.

Perhaps you don’t find the instructional value in parsing the messages about the virus coming from the leader of the country with the world’s largest number of COVID-19 cases and deaths.  The fact is that many people are listening to him and taking him seriously — and they shouldn’t.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 26, 2020, 05:42:16 PM
There is zero instructional value in the antics of a clown in the White House, except that the more attention you give it, the more you are being played. One thing COVID-19 and Trump have in common though, is that when you don't understand how they came about and what is making them so successful, there is very little chance of learning anything.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2020, 08:51:57 PM
The Mayor of New York City tweets: “We're going to learn lessons from this horrible tragedy and make profound changes.”
Quote
Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) 4/26/20, 2:21 PM
Every time New York City has faced a crisis, it’s come back stronger. That's who we are. We will work together and build something better and fairer.
We have the power to do more than just return to the status quo.
https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1254475664364838915

We're going to learn lessons from this horrible tragedy and make profound changes. To help us do it we’re enlisting New Yorkers on:
-Sector Advisory Councils
-City Task Force on Racial Inclusion and Equity
-Fair Recovery Task Force
-Charter Revision Commission


In order for us to think about a restart, we need to see the indicators going down and a massive expansion of testing and tracing. Those two factors MUST come together. We begin to restart ONLY when we have the evidence.

I am launching the Sector Advisory Councils to get this restart right. They’ll each be made up of leaders from every aspect of life in New York City to help us plan not just when we restart but HOW we restart.

We have to plan for the real world and implement a whole new set of rules and guidance.
Which businesses should screen for temperatures?
What type of protective equipment should employees use?
We’ll be answering these questions and a lot more.

I am also launching the City Task Force on Racial Inclusion and Equity, focusing on confronting health disparities, specific needs in communities of color and breaking down structural racism. I want that mission baked into every aspect of our restart and recovery.

The task force will be led by @NYCFirstLady and Deputy Mayor Phil Thompson. We will be naming leaders from across the administration representing the diversity of this city. They will help us focus on the bigger structural changes we need to make going forward.

We don’t just need a recovery, we need a transformation. I am launching the Fair Recovery Task Force, to help us build a more equitable city. I've assembled a group of remarkable New Yorkers to come together and create a preliminary recovery road map for our city by June 1st.

These are leaders who have fought for social justice and change their whole lives. They’ve led our city out of emergencies like the Fiscal Crisis of the 1970s and the aftermath of 9/11. They’ll help us build a fairer and stronger city.

The last piece of the equation is a Charter Revision Commission. It's the right time to look anew at everything we do. I want this group to think about the big picture of how our government works and serves its people.

These are the building blocks we need to create a fair recovery. We will not go back to "normal" and the status quo. We can and we will build something new and better together. That's what I'm devoted to.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on April 27, 2020, 12:56:38 AM
Quoting from post 1:

Quote
What lessons can be learned from COVID-19, and how might they impact policy and solutions with regard to AGW?

Which is just not the same as NYC appointing some task forces. And it is not about current rules or lessons about those.

This thread is not for quoting anything which just mentions lessons as much as discussing what we learned or not. 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 27, 2020, 12:24:38 PM
That "satire" video contains more accurate information than has been posted by Neven himself.  That video is correcting blatant misinformation by the President of the US, a known criminal and now a killer of his own people.

That video is a clear, funny and heart-wrenching example of how tyrants can so easily lie to their people and cause death and destruction at the same time their people adore him. A lesson. A very important time in these times.

 Debate the video on its merits or lack thereof. Calling this video off-topic in this rather general thread is over moderation.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 27, 2020, 01:23:49 PM
Debate it in the Trump thread. This has hardly anything to do with Lessons from COVID-19:

Quote
A real lesson is learned when one understands the cause of a problem. Only then can the problem be solved.

Let me repeat from my OP what in my view is the cause of the problem:

1. the origin of the virus, two possibilities:
a) the bat soup story - caused by the widespread destruction of ecosystems (civilisation getting closer and closer to wild animals with hereto unknown diseases, increased demand for exotic foods/bushmeat, etc), which in turn is caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.
b) virus escaped by accident from lab - research into diseases with pandemic potential is also fueled by the profit motive, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.
c) virus engineered and let loose - like b), but worse.

2. the spreading of the virus - caused by globalised markets and mass tourism, both caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

3. the impact of the virus - massive air pollution, an adulterated food supply full of addictive substances, and overmedication have reduced general population health to the point that a virus can have a massive impact. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

4. the response to the virus - governments totally unprepared, health care systems potentially overwhelmed because of years of cost-cutting and lobbying, millions of people uninsured in some third-world countries. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

5. the exploitation of the virus - as said, mass surveillance, mandatory vaccinations, billions of people under house arrest, any criticism stamped out, massive shifts of wealth, lower and middle classes turned into serfs after just 1-2 months of completely shutting down economies, small entrepreneurs forced out of business, people scared shitless, happily handing over what remains of their civil liberties. All of this is now done by politicians and mega-corporations to maximize profits, so that concentrated wealth can grow and further concentrate endlessly.

So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. This is the problem. If enough people understand that this is the problem and how it works, the solution becomes self-evident: taking away the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. The best way to do this, is to put a cap on how much an individual is allowed to own, and then enforce it legally, culturally and socially.

The Trump stuff would fall under 4), but it's well-established that this guy is a fake populist clown who expanded the swamp. I understand the desire to remove him from the White House, and that it's very difficult to do via elections because the Democratic Party has incapacitated itself due to its loyalty to concentrated wealth (see that Antoinette Pelosi ad?), but COVID-gate will fail just as hard as Russiagate and Ukrainegate.

If you have an absolute need to neurotically repeat how horrible Trump is every single day (which is what he wants you to do), please do it in the Trump thread.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2020, 03:41:44 PM
Debate it in the Trump thread. This has hardly anything to do with Lessons from COVID-19:

The NYC plans for the future are “lessons,” in the same (if not more) way as this plan you quoted, Neven:

...
This could be considered a lesson learned:

Coronavirus-hit Lombardy city will turn 35km of streets over to cyclists and pedestrians
The Strade Aperte plan includes temporary cycle lanes and 30kph speed limits.


Milan announces ambitious scheme to reduce car use after lockdown
21 Apr 2020
Quote
Milan is to introduce one of Europe’s most ambitious schemes reallocating street space from cars to cycling and walking, in response to the coronavirus crisis. ...


NYC is acknowledging what it has learned from this crisis: “We don’t just need a recovery, we need a transformation.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on April 27, 2020, 03:47:06 PM
Debate it in the Trump thread. This has hardly anything to do with Lessons from COVID-19:

The most important lesson for anyone concerned about climate change to learn is this:

Our actions, or lack thereof, dictate the consequences.

That the leader of the United States consistently downplayed the threat and fed misinformation to the masses directly caused the unnecessary death of an uncountable number of people. If the reaction fo Trump would have been science-based, like the one in Germany and South Korea, the number of fatalities and the social cost of the measures taken would've been a heck of a lot less.

Anyone that has been following the climate change debate for any reasonable amount of time can see the same thing happening there. Leaders deceiving themselves and others who then take the wrong actions regarding climate change and that will result in unnecessary death and destruction. With climate change the process takes decades. With coronavirus months but the dependence on or response is the same.

Misinformation. Who would have thought that lying had consequences?

Quote
A real lesson is learned when one understands the cause of a problem. Only then can the problem be solved.

If only the world was so simple. The truth is that most abstractions we can imagine have multiple causes, depending on the analyst's point of view.

Quote
Let me repeat from my OP what in my view is the cause of the problem:

And you are way off the science.

Quote
1. the origin of the virus, two possibilities:

The origin of the virus is the same as 100 years ago and the same as 100 years before that and uncountable times in between. Novel viruses emerge all the time. Sometimes they form pandemics. Sometimes they form local epidemics. Most times they never successfully reproduce at all.

Back when humans were all "in tune" with nature and singing kumbaya to the one true God, the sun, virus and epidemics existed. I doubt planetary human pandemics existed.   

Quote
2. the spreading of the virus - caused by globalised markets and mass tourism, both caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

YOu call that on-topic but proof that the President of the US sabotaged the response with lies is off topic?

What you posted is propaganda, not science.

Quote
3. the impact of the virus - massive air pollution, an adulterated food supply full of addictive substances, and overmedication have reduced general population health to the point that a virus can have a massive impact. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

Sure the world is halfway there to idiocracy, but to blame it all on wealth concentration is shortsighted and as offtopic as Trump.

Quote
4. the response to the virus -

I'm not sure how can we talk about the response to the virus without talking about the President of the US. He literally incited people to riot against stay at home orders.


Quote
5. the exploitation of the virus
-

How can we talk exploitation without talking Trump, who exploits shamelessly?

Quote
So, you see, every step of the process is either caused or influenced directly by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. This is the problem. If enough people understand that this is the problem and how it works, the solution becomes self-evident: taking away the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly. The best way to do this, is to put a cap on how much an individual is allowed to own, and then enforce it legally, culturally and socially.

All I see is an otherwise smart man basing an epidemic response on an abstract concept.


Quote
The Trump stuff would fall under 4), but it's well-established that this guy is a fake populist clown who expanded the swamp. I understand the desire to remove him from the White House, and that it's very difficult to do via elections because the Democratic Party has incapacitated itself due to its loyalty to concentrated wealth (see that Antoinette Pelosi ad?), but COVID-gate will fail just as hard as Russiagate and Ukrainegate.

Russiagate and Ukraine gate didn't fail. Only the blind fail to see that Trump is a traitor and a criminal who works with dictators like Putin to enrich themselves. Republicans and Democrats both know deep inside they are working with a criminal traitor.


Quote
If you have an absolute need to neurotically repeat how horrible Trump is every single day (which is what he wants you to do), please do it in the Trump thread.


He has an operational impact on the virus response. YOU are helping him by downplaying his impact exactly like you downplay Russia gate.  His downplaying of the threat of C19 is similar to his downplaying of climate change.


People do not act because they believe it was a hoax. Most people will not read the Mueller report like they won't read the IPCC or the WHO's recommendations.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 27, 2020, 04:34:55 PM
There is a varying national perspective here that some may not appreciate.  Those outside of the U.S. may think it’s easy to say “Trump is an idiot; just ignore him.”

In the U.S. — as much as most of us would love to do that — it is not possible!  Especially as the epidemic in the U.S. has unfolded — Trump’s first major national crisis — he and his foibles headline the news and social media 24/7.  Incessant fact checks.  Republican governors base their non-actions on what Trump has said.  Democratic governors blast back at what he has said and done, and detail their difficulties at dealing with the epidemic because of what the government is doing.  Local governments cite him and his administration guidance, for good or bad.  Friends, neighbors, and strangers argue about him incessantly.  It’s not that we want to talk about about him, it’s that we have to, for own own survival.

This has not been the case with any other U.S. president!  Today, it is a HUGE LESSON for everyone in the U.S. in learning how to deal with a crisis when your leadership is hobbled and divided.  So many actions we must decide whether to take, that we have not had to, before!  Every day is a lesson, for us.

A divided nation, we are all searching for learnings, solutions, as to how we should deal with the present situation and move forward, because, as this piece concludes: “Trump cannot unite.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/the-implications-of-trump-derangement-syndrome/610705/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 29, 2020, 03:04:41 PM
A lot to learn about the human psyche during a pandemic also.

Psychology of why some people are deliberately spitting, coughing and licking food in supermarkets

Link >> https://theconversation.com/psychology-of-why-some-people-are-deliberately-spitting-coughing-and-licking-food-in-supermarkets-137111



Three ways people are reacting to coronavirus: ‘accepting’, ‘suffering’ and ‘resisting’

Link >> https://theconversation.com/three-ways-people-are-reacting-to-coronavirus-accepting-suffering-and-resisting-137345
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 29, 2020, 04:01:46 PM
Turns out letting “efficient” monopolies control our food supply was a terrible idea.

Quote
“If you pull out one little thing in that specialized, centralized, consolidated chain, then everything crashes,” said Mary Hendrickson, a rural sociology professor at University of Missouri. “Now we have an animal welfare catastrophe, an environmental catastrophe, a farmer catastrophe, and a worker catastrophe altogether, and we can trace a lot of this back to the pursuit of efficiency.”

Link >> https://washingtonmonthly.com/2020/04/28/why-are-farmers-destroying-food-while-grocery-stores-are-empty/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 29, 2020, 06:06:33 PM
Blumenkraft, Efficiency probably deserves its own thread. Efficiency is What delivers Meat to be sure.
Here is how it works in the US and really everywhere in the world
Very large farms grow GMO corn and soybeans in a crop rotation . Very few farm laborers.
Those two crops are siloed and milled close to large confinement beef and pork operations
These farms, silos , and packing plants are colocated with slaughter facilities and rail hubs.
They are also located where cheap labor is available for the processing plants.
Anything of value like soy oil is refined for human consumption and the dregs go to the animals.

The efficiency is reflected in the price at the supermarket. Cities are completely dependent on this system to deliver their food supplies. Large cities pay zero attention to how they could feed themselves locally because they can’t . So We all ignore the costs on the land, the environment, the insects, the birds, the fish, the forests, the oceans, farmers lives, meat packers lives, and ultimately the heath of the planet and it’s peoples because cities demand cheap food. Everything is a city these days.
 
Efficiency is also the opposite . Doing everything by hand . Living very close to the land , growing your own food with only farm sourced inputs( energy, feed, fertilizer, labor ) milk your own cow, kill your own meat provisions, preserve your own dry stores and seed.
Otherwise known as the hard way but very very efficient and all of those downsides to huge corporate agribusiness go away. Only problem is the cities starve. But nature, the birds, insects, and everything else benefits.
Each human has to take responsibility for their part in what has happened and it would take all of us to turn it around. I am cheating because I know what is required , I have the knowledge to live by human toil but I have solar, and powerwalls and ICE vehicles and they all make my life much much easier. They are less bad than other options . We all settle for less bad option even those of us trying.
Subsistence farming is an option , hand labor or a beast of burden. I would hope small solar could assist.
Food Efficiency can be measured as fuel to protein
Soy is very efficient
Chickens have amazing feed to protein ratios
Schooling fish like sardines, herring , Caplin and squid can be caught with fuel to protein comparable to soy or chicken

There isn’t any easy way out. The green revolution was more like a war on everything else living.

 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on April 29, 2020, 07:13:08 PM
....
Efficiency is also the opposite. Doing everything by hand. Living very close to the land, growing your own food with only farm sourced inputs( energy, feed, fertilizer, labor ) milk your own cow, kill your own meat provisions, preserve your own dry stores and seed.
Otherwise known as the hard way but very very efficient and all of those downsides to huge corporate agribusiness go away. Only problem is the cities starve. But nature, the birds, insects, and everything else benefits.
Each human has to take responsibility for their part in what has happened and it would take all of us to turn it around. I am cheating because I know what is required , I have the knowledge to live by human toil but I have solar, and powerwalls and ICE vehicles and they all make my life much much easier. They are less bad than other options . We all settle for less bad option even those of us trying. 

Priceless post, the whole thing.  You're living the lifestyle that many environmentalists advocate, but few people are willing to do. Hats off to you.

In a capitalist society (which virtually the entire world lives in), "efficiency" doesn't mean getting the essentials with the least environmental impact, it means maximizing the dollar return on time of labor.  Which is utterly inefficient at securing the essentials for a good life while minimizing the environmental cost.

Taming the capitalist (that is, corporate) beast is the ultimate struggle of humanity.  We're collectively not doing very well at this task.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 29, 2020, 07:18:45 PM
That's an insightful write-up, Bruce. Thanks for that.

Quote
Subsistence farming is an option

I'm sure this could be improved and made way more efficient (for markets) when the incentives are so that you are punished (on the market) if you do industrialized farming and get rewarded for sustainable/subsistence farming.

Of course, those incentives involve a framework, like well thought out regulations and the ability to change them when unintended consequences occur.

Zero chance of getting there with the current or the upcoming government in the US i guess.

Let's see if the EU will learn something. Not optimistic, but the chances are greater than zero.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 29, 2020, 08:13:19 PM
Quote
Overweight Brits are ‘TEN TIMES more likely to die of coronavirus’, top doc warns

OVERWEIGHT Brits could be ten times more likely to die of coronavirus, a top doctor has warned.

Dr Aseem Malhotra, a leading NHS consultant cardiologist, said that those with problems related to obesity are developing a more severe form of Covid-19.

Referencing recent analysis by the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention, he warned of a worrying "tenfold increased risk of mortality death rates" in people who have conditions associated with obesity.

Dr Malhotra said that these include type 2 diabetes, high blood pressure and heart disease.

He explained that obesity is defined as a having a body mass index over 30 - but warned that 25 per cent of Brits fall into this category.

Speaking on ITV's Good Morning Britain today, he said: "This is a real problem because it’s not being addressed and it’s not being tackled head-on.

"The reason for this are twofold - one is excess body fat seems to have an adverse effect when it comes to viral illnesses.

"We know that with the flu you're more likely to get severe illness if you’re overweight.

"But with Covid-19 it also seems to drive an excessive immune response called the ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome - that unfortunately causes many people to die."

He continued: "This goes well beyond obesity because what’s underlying this is something known as the metabolic syndrome.

"To put this in perspective, only one in eight people in the US - and our figures are likely similar in the UK because more than 60 per cent of our population is overweight or obese - are actually metabolically healthy.

"When you look at the roots of all of this, even pre Covid-19, it’s established that even poor diet now is responsible for 11 million deaths per year.

"Poor diet also causes more disease and death than physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol combined."
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 29, 2020, 08:21:59 PM
Thanks for this, nev, but
Quote
"tenfold increased risk of mortality death rates" in people who have conditions associated with obesity
is slightly different from the claim in the title.

What about the obese who don't happen to show any of these "conditions associated with obesity"?

I think sigma or someone has shown at least one study that does separate out these factors, and still shows that obesity itself is risk factor directly for dying from this disease (can't find it right now), but this study does not seem to, from what is presented (unless I missed something, which is always a very good possibility  :-[ )
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 29, 2020, 08:57:30 PM
Why have European meatpackers fared better ? Are there authorities tracking Coronavirus rates among Europeans processing facilities ?
 It seems to me that all the wet surfaces and all the high pressure water that is sprayed around in meat processing plants might aerosolize the virus after it settles on a fomite. There may be different disinfectants in use but without any working knowledge about how European and US facilities operate I am just guessing . Has anyone seen any science on testing surfaces inside the processing plants?
 
There are some major differences between Europe and the US as far as farms ability to produce cheeses, or salami or other food processes that might involve food safety. Items for sale from  a home kitchen can only produce a few things like jams, or cookies or products that don’t require refrigeration and minimize food safety issues. A home kitchen requires permits. Farms can’t process food without commercial kitchens, or usda inspected facilities. HASAP plans , inspectors, permits at a scale that mean it is basically illegal in the US. The one exemption is processing less than 1000 chickens a year.
 Insurance is a another layer of restrictions, and maybe zoning .
 In Europe there is I believe a way for farms to process food and sell it from the farm . At least people get the opportunity to support local. It might be argued that knowing the exact source of your food is safer if you deal with people you know. Artisan meats and cheeses are  maybe somewhat risky but IMO taste better and can provide value added income that small farmers need to survive.
 Animal rights and the regulation regarding it , protests and the resulting hidden world of meat processing is probably a whole other layer. 
 If humane was a goal , it failed.
 Food safety has improved but at a cost of small farm viability
 Food security is reduced because just in time food delivery requires every cog in the machine to keep turning , all the time .
 Diversity is a security benefit but it really needs some exemption from the permitting nightmare we currently operate under.

Obesity has much to do with what we eat and how much exercise we get.
Strange how food and Covid are related. Restaurants, meat packing, crappy diets and obesity, vitamin D
How about couches, TV, processed foods TV diners , cars , elevators, soda pop, advertising ,drugs , alcohol.

 
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 29, 2020, 09:27:35 PM
I think what you are seeing is a difference in 'regulatory environment' between US and EU, as well as the relative powerlessness of unions in the US.

As meat processing consolidated, only the mega-big corporations were left, and they had the power to bend regulators to their will, screwing employees, consumers and farmers alike.

(At least that is my general impression)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on April 29, 2020, 10:44:04 PM
wili, I just posted that comment as it relates to:

Quote
3. the impact of the virus - massive air pollution, an adulterated food supply full of addictive substances, and overmedication have reduced general population health to the point that a virus can have a massive impact. All these things are caused by the need for ever-increasing profits, which is fueled by the need for concentrated wealth to grow and further concentrate endlessly.

There was a study published last week about the link between COVID-19 and air pollution. There'll be more.

COVID-19 could provide a lesson wrt degeneration of general population health.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on April 29, 2020, 10:53:38 PM
Good points. One thing it is making clear (to me at least) in the US is that 'healthcare inequality' amounts to genocide.

The US is following the ground plan the Brits used to obliterate the native people of Tasmania (among others): isolate them (cf ghettos), restrict their access to healthy food (cf food deserts), and restrict their access to health care.

That's all that is needed to obliterate a people, along with their culture and language.

This is most clearly happening to Blacks in the US, but Latinx, Native Americans, and really most of the rest of us are not far behind
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on April 30, 2020, 05:25:42 AM
Bruce and wili, thank you for sharing your thoughts. Very interesting reading and beautiful true views imo.
This is an interesting and important thread.

edit:
Re: local slaughtering and selling products directly from farm.
This happens more and more in the (rural) Netherlands.
Examples from my locality:

2 Km from my home is a butcher who also slaughters local and organicly raised animals.
   https://www.slagerijrijpma.nl/ (in Netherlandic)
10 Km from my home is a farmer that sells non-pasteurized (raw) milk, cheese and other dairy products, and meat from cows. His cows go to the aforementioned butcher/slaughterer.
  http://melktapburgum.nl/melktap-verse-melk-van-de-boer-friesland/ (in Netherlandic)

Note: the RIVM (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Netherlands_National_Institute_for_Public_Health_and_the_Environment) (food security institute) advises that you boil the milk after having bought it raw from the farm.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on April 30, 2020, 08:33:46 AM
Economic Damage Could Be Worse Without Lockdown and Social Distancing, Study Finds

How is this not a no-brainer to people? If i know anything about the economy than that uncertainty is bad for it. With lockdown and clear rules on how to handle this, there is more certainty than without, right?

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 30, 2020, 02:19:49 PM
Economic Damage Could Be Worse Without Lockdown and Social Distancing, Study Finds

How is this not a no-brainer to people? If i know anything about the economy than that uncertainty is bad for it. With lockdown and clear rules on how to handle this, there is more certainty than without, right?

Agreed.  If everyone were knowledgeable and responsible about how to act to maximize safety, a broad lockdown would not be needed.  But unfortunately there will always be “those people” who aren’t, so, strict rules make it simpler to keep everyone safe, at least until the risk has subsided.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: sidd on May 01, 2020, 12:43:29 AM
Forte on globalization:

"when people panic, they panic according to a template ... Sometimes the template is handed to us via mass-mediated popular culture. On other occasions, the template has been provided by the state. "

"panic-driven buying of toilet paper. Now why toilet paper? ... They cannot explain themselves in words, but that does not mean that they were acting irrationally. Instead, their action was “reasonable” given what, as a society, they had been conditioned to perceive and expect as the defining feature of an emergency situation ... what we observed here were the workings of a media-based cultural blowback from sanctions aimed at regime change in Venezuela, and the mass shortages that were provoked there ... for years international media propagated stories about “shortages of toilet paper” ...  throughout 2016 and again in 2018. The shortage of toilet paper appears to have become the new viral meme of crisis theatre. Having seen what happens when other countries faced a crisis, many in the US and here in Canada were thus trained to expect that we too would “naturally” face a shortage of toilet paper—because presumably that’s what always happens in a crisis."

"they were panic buying was because they expected everything around them to shut down. What they feared was a total shutdown of the economy, and its eventual collapse."

" it is in the interest of some to make sure that some type of fear retains a permanent presence"

"We are clearly being tested—even if not by conscious design—for our “resilience,” as individuals primarily. How good are we at following public health directives, and listening to the commands of our elected leaders?"

" The crisis is too good for neoliberalism to not use it to try to salvage itself, especially when its existence is what is immediately threatened. The fear, then, is on all sides."

"Fear maximizes regimentation. Fear dictates mass response. Fear can also increase trust in authority, out of a desire for protection, especially in societies that have long enforced processes of infantilizing and disempowering citizens. Fear renders those who normally live in a state of dependency—dependent on others for certification, for authorization, for jobs, for goods and services—even more dependent. Fear has people looking outwards and upwards. "

"the question cannot be one of whether we can escape the clutches of “big government”. Clearly, we cannot. The only question is which big government do we trust more—the one over which we might have some nominal control, or the one designed to answer no one except shareholders and serves the interests of profit for a few ...  that the corporations of the public sector are what we call political parties, whereas the political parties of the private sector are what we call companies; or that both business and government involve bureaucracy. "

" thinkers have a valid point is in alerting us to the risk of governments appropriating, exploiting, and abusing “public health risks” as a convenient means of increasing their power. This would actually be in keeping with a substantial amount of modern history, from colonialist “hygiene” campaigns to eugenics and class control in urban areas of Europe and North America."

"After 9/11, the state drew legitimation from the need to “protect” people and ensure their “security” and “safety,” which—very quickly—became a justification for permanent war, permanent occupation, regime change, mass surveillance, the curtailment of civil liberties, censorship, and persecution of dissidents. Fear of a “public health crisis” erupting in this or that locale (especially one conveniently situated atop massive oil or strategic mineral reserves), would be a crisis too good to waste."

" “public health” and “hygiene” can be revived in the cause of global recolonization. The hygienic narrative can easily be added to the repertoire of humanitarian interventionism. There will be no shortage of both racism and ethnocentrism. We may soon hear justifications for intervention on the basis of “preventing a public health catastrophe and a repeat of COVID-19”. Governments (“regimes”) allegedly failing to enforce public hygiene, will be treated as if they had forfeited sovereignty. "

"This crisis must be exceedingly embarrassing and inconvenient for the orthodox scribes who attend to the upkeep of the once dominant narrative. We are waiting to be reminded of how globalization has made the world more stable, and made our lives better. Behold how peaceful and prosperous is a world shut down and quarantined by capitalist globalization. Let’s hear three more cheers for capitalism, how it has made everyone safer, and remember: “capitalism works”. The coronavirus also works, and without any of the armies which capitalism used to annihilate alternatives."

"globalization, and the globalism that upholds it, have literally sickened people. All have been put in danger, many have already died, and more will die. Such a system cannot be allowed to continue, as a practical matter of survival. "

"another old realization will come back to the fore: we do not need any foreign master. We do not need any foreign master, whether new or old, whether it is China or the US. Some think (wishfully, not analytically) that it is only China’s alleged plan to become the centre of global power that will be harmed from this pandemic—but it is US hegemony that will now meet its fullest and most visible decline."

"I want to challenge readers to stop thinking of the world necessarily being polar, whether uni-polar, bi-polar, or multi-polar. The fact of the matter is that for the vast majority of the time that humans have existed on this planet, our planet was non-polar. Global “poles” are an invention of the last 500 years—not a particularly good invention, rarely a welcome invention, and clearly not a sustainable invention."

https://zeroanthropology.net/2020/04/27/globalization-in-the-widening-gyre-of-covid-19/

sidd
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: sidd on May 01, 2020, 01:36:05 AM
Work or starve: Iowa, Texas

"If you don't return to work in Texas and Iowa because you fear getting sick from the coronavirus you risk losing unemployment benefits. "

"If you're an employer and you offer to bring your employee back to work and they decide not to, that's a voluntary quit ... Therefore, they would not be eligible for the unemployment money."

"Businesses should report employees who refuse to return to work without good reason or who quit their jobs as soon as possible,"

"I feel like either I'm going to lose my business and everything I worked for, or I'm going to get sick,"

"The fervor to reopen—whether it's safe or not—will compel these workers to put themselves between the virus and people sitting on Zoom calls and ordering deliveries online."

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/04/29/only-trumps-america-despite-covid-19-employees-texas-and-iowa-told-get-back-work-or

sidd
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on May 01, 2020, 11:18:45 AM
Removed a music video not related to any lessons. Such videos can be put in the music thread in The Rest with a byeline.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 01, 2020, 12:00:36 PM
Fear of globalization caused this problem. When the outbreak began in China, international health authorities should have worked together to contain the virus in place. Teams of nurses, doctors, and personal of international nature should have flown in with tons of equipment, and together with the overwhelmed Chinese authorities contain it in place.

The response has to be international because an outbreak can start anywhere in the world at any time. No one city in the world can maintain the resources required to battle this type of emergency.

Equally, cooperation and coordination on travel and maritime situations that arose with the pandemic was highly deficient and still is.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 03, 2020, 10:44:16 AM
American 'protesters' ladies and gentlemen.

(https://i.redd.it/8ievhxnf5aw41.jpg)

Link >> https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/02/auschwitz-memorial-condemns-nazi-slogan-illinois-coronavirus-rally

If you didn't already know, this should show you just how the neo-nazis and the reopen movement are in the same boat.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 03, 2020, 11:25:54 AM
The best way to deal with that, is to not feed it, but that's a lesson for another day. This is something that has always been there and always will be, and thus it's not a lesson to be learned from COVID-19.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 03, 2020, 11:41:55 AM
Neven, you are right, i bet most people on this forum understand how those right-wing think-tanks influence public opinion like that. We have seen it for too long when it comes to climate change. As far as the general public is concerned though, i would say no more than 10% are aware.

Understanding and analyzing how it happens today, with this pandemic, might have the means to uncover this for other topics too.

IMHO there is indeed a lesson to be learned here.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: vox_mundi on May 03, 2020, 11:52:54 AM
I agree with bk

Looking the other way just 'normalizes' it. That didn't work out so swell 80 years ago. If you don't learn from the past you set yourself up for a repeat.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 03, 2020, 02:16:54 PM
The best way to deal with that, is to not feed it, but that's a lesson for another day. This is something that has always been there and always will be, and thus it's not a lesson to be learned from COVID-19.

1. know your enemy is an important lesson.

2. The best way to deal with it is to let it happen and ignore it?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 03, 2020, 11:58:56 PM
1. know your enemy is an important lesson.

Indeed it is, and if you think that people holding up an 'Arbeit macht frei' sign, is the enemy, you are not learning anything. I used to think that way, back in the GWB years, but now I know better.

There is only one enemy right now, and it's not a group of human beings. It's concentrated wealth. Deconcentrate it and you have a chance of solving things. Focus on 'knowing' some perceived enemy, which only says something about yourself, and you're in for lots of violence and a continuation of the vicious cycle.

Quote
2. The best way to deal with it is to let it happen and ignore it?

Focussing will necessarily involve ignoring, because ignoring is the best way to prevent yourself from getting distracted. Things like Trump and white supremacist protesters ('those people'), it's all a distraction. If you don't eliminate the root cause (=concentrated wealth), you won't beat those distractions.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 10:39:58 AM
Neven:
Has any society ever eliminated concentrated wealth? And even if, by some miracle, one did, immediately wouldn't differences in people's talents, ambition, luck, etc. immediately start reconcentrating it again?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 04, 2020, 12:36:57 PM
Neven:
Has any society ever eliminated concentrated wealth?

I don't know, I'm not a historian. I vaguely remember reading about some era in Japan's history, and about tribes that chose leaders based on altruism.

Quote
And even if, by some miracle, one did, immediately wouldn't differences in people's talents, ambition, luck, etc. immediately start reconcentrating it again?

Yes, it would. s soon as a group of people undertake something, the dynamic is set in motion. Differences in people's talents, ambition, luck, etc. are actually a great way to produce progress and innovation. But when that is translated into wealth, and there is no limit to that wealth, that's when wealth starts to take over, moves beyond the control of its owners, and continues to grow exponentially, until it destroys itself and everything connected to it.

Hence the need for a cap on wealth. Not a tax, a cap. You could argue that a cap is a 100% tax.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 01:44:45 PM
What should that cap be, exactly?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 04, 2020, 01:55:20 PM
That's of secondary importance, and off-topic.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on May 04, 2020, 03:43:21 PM
I think you will find that most non-civilisation tribes were without concentrated wealth.

Concentrated wealth is a symptom of civilisations. The conquerors gain, either with or without physical violence. The rest gets conquered.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 04, 2020, 03:59:24 PM
But even noncivilized tribes had their chiefs and shamans who had better lives than the regular guys.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on May 05, 2020, 04:17:29 AM
/off-topic
Tom, please watch this youtube documentary about the San people from southern Africa and try to find a chief or a shaman. Or fathers. Or marriage.
Most non-civilisation tribes that were not nomadic didn't have separate houses like we think is 'normal'. Why would you if don't follow the unnatural fantasies of marriage and father/family. These fantasies came with civiliation, from powerful rich men.
People are always trying any which way to find the faults of civilisations also in non-civilisation tribes. That is the result of a strong cultural bias and a 'bubble'; to not want to see anything negative about 'normal' culture. I vividly remember how oren reacted to my monogamy post; wiping it from the table without any arguments. As if it was just an idea and not very thoroughly tought through and through. Another example of cultural bias and 'safety'-glass 'bubble'.
(27m06)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oQ5Jd7p2aY

I will not respond further to this subject in this thread. My apologies to the moderators.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 05, 2020, 11:30:13 AM
Will we learn from this, or will we just forget how it all started, after the crisis has been fully exploited by a system that only cares about increasing concentrated wealth?

Consent Factory (https://consentfactory.org/2020/05/04/virus-of-mass-destruction/):

Quote
Virus of Mass Destruction

There comes a point in the introduction of every new official narrative when people no longer remember how it started. Or, rather, they remember how it started, but not the propaganda that started it. Or, rather, they remember all that (or are able to, if you press them on it), but it doesn’t make any difference anymore, because the official narrative has supplanted reality.

You’ll remember this point from the War on Terror, and specifically the occupation of Iraq. By the latter half of 2004, most Westerners had completely forgotten the propaganda that launched the invasion, and thus regarded the Iraqi resistance as “terrorists,” despite the fact that the United States had invaded and was occupying their country for no legitimate reason whatsoever. By that time, it was abundantly clear that there were no “weapons of mass destruction,” and that the U.S.A. had invaded a nation that had not attacked it, and posed no threat to it, and so was perpetrating a textbook war of aggression.

These facts did not matter, not in the slightest. By that time, Westerners were totally immersed in the official War on Terror narrative, which had superseded objective reality. Herd mentality had taken over. It’s difficult to describe how this works; it’s a state of functional dissociation. It wasn’t that people didn’t know the facts, or that they didn’t understand the facts. They knew the Iraqis weren’t “terrorists.” At the same time, they knew they were definitely “terrorists,” despite the fact that they knew that they weren’t. They knew there were no WMDs, that there had never been any WMDs, and still they were certain there were WMDs, which would be found, although they clearly did not exist.

The same thing happened in Nazi Germany. The majority of the German people were never fanatical anti-Semites like the hardcore N.S.D.A.P. members. If they had been, there would have been no need for Goebbels and his monstrous propaganda machine. No, the Germans during the Nazi period, like the Americans during the War on Terror, knew that their victims posed no threat to them, and at the same time they believed exactly the opposite, and thus did not protest as their neighbors were hauled out of their homes and sent off to death camps, camps which, in their dissociative state, simultaneously did and did not exist.

(...)

It is the goal of every official narrative to generate this type of herd mentality, not in order to deceive or dupe the public, but, rather, to confuse and terrorize them to the point where they revert to their primal instincts, and are being driven purely by existential fear, and facts and truth no longer matter. Once an official narrative reaches this point, it is unassailable by facts and reason. It no longer needs facts to justify it. It justifies itself with its own existence. Reason cannot penetrate it. Arguing with its adherents is pointless. They know it is irrational. They simply do not care.

We are reaching this point with the coronavirus narrative. It is possible that we have already reached it. Despite the fact that what we are dealing with is a virus that, yes, is clearly deadly to the old and those with medical conditions, but that is just as clearly not a deadly threat to the majority of the human species, people are cowering inside their homes as if the Zombie Apocalpyse had finally begun. Many appear to believe that this virus is some sort of Alien-Terrorist Death Flu (or weaponized Virus of Mass Destruction) that will kill you the second you breathe it in.

This is not surprising at all, because, according to the official narrative, its destructive powers are nearly unlimited. Not only will it obliterate your lungs, and liquidate all your other major organs, and kill you with blood clots, and intestinal damage, now it causes “sudden strokes in young adults,” and possibly spontaneous prostate cancer, and God knows what other medical horrors!

According to all the “scientists” and “medical experts” (i.e., those that conform to the official narrative, not all the other scientists and medical experts), it is unlike any other virus that has ever existed in the history of viruses. It certainly doesn’t follow the typical pattern of spreading extensively for a limited period, and then rapidly dying down on its own, regardless of what measures are taken to thwart it, as this Israeli study would seem to indicate.

Also, “we have no immunity against it,” which is why we all have to remain “locked down” like unruly inmates in a penitentiary until a vaccine can be concocted and forced onto every living person on earth. Apparently, this mandatory wonder vaccine will magically render us immune to this virus against which we have no immunity (and are totally unable to develop immunity), which immunity will be certified on our mandatory “immunity papers,” which we will need to travel, get a job, send our kids to school, and, you know, to show the police when they stop us on the street because we look like maybe we might be “infected.”

Germany (where I live) is way out in front of this. According to the Süddeutsche Zeitung, the federal government plans to introduce a coronavirus “immunity card” as part of its “Infection Protection Law,” which will grant the authorities the power to round up anyone “suspected to be contagious” and force them into … uh … “quarantine,” and “forbid them from entering certain public places.” The Malaysian authorities have dispensed with such niceties, and are arresting migrant workers and refugees in so-called “Covid-19 red zones” and marching them off to God knows where.

(...)

They aren’t hiding the totalitarianism … they don’t have to. Because people are begging for it. They are demanding to be “locked down” inside their homes, forced to wear masks, and stand two meters apart, for reasons that most of them no longer remember.

Plastic barriers are going up everywhere. Arrows on the floor show you which way to walk. Boxes show you where to stand. Paranoid Blockwarts are putting up signs threatening anyone not wearing a mask. Hysterical little fascist creeps are reporting their neighbors to the police for letting their children play with other children. Millions of people are voluntarily downloading “contact tracing applications” so that governments and global corporations can monitor their every movement. In Spain, they bleached an entire beach, killing everything, down to the insects, in order to protect the public from “infection.” The Internet has become an Orwellian chorus of shrieking, sanctimonious voices bullying everyone into conformity with charts, graphs, and desperate guilt-trips, few of which have much connection to reality. Corporations and governments are censoring dissent. We’re approaching a level of manufactured mass hysteria and herd mentality that not even Goebbels could have imagined.

Meanwhile, they’re striking the mostly empty “field hospitals,” and the theatrical “hospital ship” is now gone, and despite their attempts to inflate the Covid-19 death count as much as humanly possible, the projected hundreds of millions of deaths have not materialized (not even close), and Sweden is fine, as is most of humanity, and … just like there were no WMDs, there is no Virus of Mass Destruction.

What there is, is a new official narrative, the brave new, paranoid, pathologized “normal.” Like the War on Terror, it’s a global narrative. A global, post-ideological narrative. It’s just getting started, so it isn’t yet clear how totalitarian this show will get, but, given the nature of the pilot episode, I am kind of dreading the rest of the series.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: oren on May 05, 2020, 03:14:43 PM
Quote
We are reaching this point with the coronavirus narrative. It is possible that we have already reached it. Despite the fact that what we are dealing with is a virus that, yes, is clearly deadly to the old and those with medical conditions, but that is just as clearly not a deadly threat to the majority of the human species, people are cowering inside their homes as if the Zombie Apocalpyse had finally begun. Many appear to believe that this virus is some sort of Alien-Terrorist Death Flu (or weaponized Virus of Mass Destruction) that will kill you the second you breathe it in.

This is not surprising at all, because, according to the official narrative, its destructive powers are nearly unlimited. Not only will it obliterate your lungs, and liquidate all your other major organs, and kill you with blood clots, and intestinal damage, now it causes “sudden strokes in young adults,” and possibly spontaneous prostate cancer, and God knows what other medical horrors!
Nonsense. The official position of most governments and the scientific establishment is that this virus kills ~1% of infected persons, with a high skew towards the old and the sick. It can also overwhelm healthcare systems when it is allowed to spread unchecked. That is all. If anything, many try to downplay the risk, rather than overplay it. So when someone (as in the quoted article) drums up the official position as if it is a narrative of the zombie apocalypse, you bet they are promoting some kind of agenda.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on May 05, 2020, 03:34:59 PM
Bullseye, Oren. If anything, the media hype or narrative has made us forget in the beginning nobody did shit about the epidemic. Even the Chinese were late and when they did act, us westerners thought they were crazy to take such drastic and draconian measures.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 05, 2020, 06:07:11 PM
Quote
The official position of most governments and the scientific establishment

That doesn't constitute an official narrative. There is also the (mainstream) media and nowadays social media. The fear has been hyped up to the point that you get some really weird behaviour.

Next week, people will be allowed to engage in team sports again. My daughter plays basketball and the association has come up with advice, like when kids train with basketballs provided by the club, the balls need to be disinfected before and after training.  ;D

It would be funny, if it weren't so scary to see how far people are taking the mesophobia and hypochondria.

Quote
If anything, many try to downplay the risk, rather than overplay it.

Not in the official narrative I'm witnessing.

If anything, the media hype or narrative has made us forget in the beginning nobody did shit about the epidemic.

Exactly, just like the official narrative for the Iraq War made people forget about WMDs and how it all started. Either you're with us, or you're with the terrorists.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 05, 2020, 06:55:40 PM
Quote
Despite the fact that what we are dealing with is a virus that, yes, is clearly deadly to the old and those with medical conditions, but that is just as clearly not a deadly threat to the majority of the human species, people are cowering inside their homes as if the Zombie Apocalpyse had finally begun. Many appear to believe that this virus is some sort of Alien-Terrorist Death Flu (or weaponized Virus of Mass Destruction) that will kill you the second you breathe it in.


Most rational people that are calling for extreme caution clearly state the risk is around 1%, skewed for age. 

The above paragraph is pure projection. The author feels great fear about what is being said, so much so that when a scientist says 1% (C19) the author understands "Alien-Terrorist Death Flu Zombie Apocalpyse".


To the author, I would advise to try and understand and explain the following.

Ebola kills up to 90% of its victims. Covid 19 kills 1% of its victims.

Last decade Ebola killed less than 50k people. C19 has killed 250k in a few months.

So what is more dangerous, Ebola or C19?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on May 06, 2020, 12:27:32 AM
Interesting job on offer today.

https://www.jobserve.com/gb/en/mob/job/D05DC6AA60FBB0FA7E?shid=7D3A960E0ED62BFD1F00&page=1

Whether this is due to lessons learned or not is debatable.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 06, 2020, 12:30:12 AM
Come on, guys, don't tell me that the fear hasn't been ratcheted up. Just last week there was a minor scandal here in Austria because of a leaked memo about the chancellor musing during a meeting how the population could be made scared enough, so that they would meekly follow orders. An expert brought up an example from the UK where fear was stimulated during a measles outbreak.

Speaking of the UK:

UK:  People are so scared that neighbors will spread the virus that more than 200,000 have called the police to report rule breaking by their fellow citizens
Quote
A campaign to keep Britons locked down and protected from the coronavirus may have proved too successful, according to new research, with many now scared to leave their homes.

A leading Cambridge University statistician warned that the government’s stay-at-home message had caused many people to grow “particularly anxious” about going out.

“Many people are definitely overanxious about their chance of both getting the virus and the harm they might come to if they do get it,” Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter told the BBC.
...
Keiran Pedley, research director at Ipsos Mori, said: “Clear majorities of Britons are nervous about using public transport again or going to bars, restaurants or live music and sporting events.

“These numbers suggest that it will take some time for parts of the British economy to return to any semblance of normality, even after lockdown has ended.”
...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-day-after-elon-musk-denounced-coronavirus-lockdowns-as-infringements-of-freedom-research-shows-britons-are-too-scared-to-leave-their-homes-anyway-2020-05-01

Every day I read the articles posted by Vox Mundi in the COVID thread. If they aren't about Trump, they're about all kinds of anecdotal evidence or studies showing that the disease is even more dangerous than presumed, and that it's silently spreading everywhere, leaving behind a trail of corpses. When I watch the Dutch, Croatian or Austrian news, they constantly hammer on the fact that there will be a second wave, that things will be locked down again as soon as numbers go up too much (guaranteeing several more weeks/months of excessive focus on graphs and charts without context or perspective), and that this will never be over, until we will be redeemed by the Messias-vaccine.

Such an atmosphere, as described in the article, creates opportunities for all kinds of mischief. As I don't trust governments, I believe the primary function of the lockdowns has been to deflect any criticism for the unpreparedness and amateurishness in dealing with the epidemic, or criticism for the absolutely criminal failure of protecting the elderly and other risk groups.

At a close second comes the way the crisis is exploited, in some countries to transfer massive amounts of wealth from the lower and middle class to the 1%, in other countries to give authoritarian governments/leaders even more power. Off course, there is always the pressure from Big Pharma in the background, with its lackey the WHO to direct the show. If the virus doesn't fizzle out by itself (as viruses are wont to do), there's a good chance there will be large-sclae, mandatory vaccination schemes, with little to no liability, if things go wrong because there was no time to test.

And then all those opportunities for the unholy marriage of Big State and Silicon Valley to push for even more extreme forms of surveillance and censorship...

Hence the official narrative and my suspicion that a lot of it is overhyped. If it turns out that this is so, will we learn from it? I'm jealous of people who are so trustworthy of governments and media, given the path we're on. #StandTogether
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on May 06, 2020, 12:52:27 AM
Hence the official narrative and my suspicion that a lot of it is overhyped. If it turns out that this is so, will we learn from it?

Well we learn people are really good at focusing at one thing.

Also we lead a pretty sheltered life. If you had dengue before and you live in an area where it is endemic you are basically always living with a similar risk. And there are worse examples. Being born in areas were clean water is not available. Then again that kills you before you get to complain on the internet.

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 06, 2020, 11:31:02 AM
Next week, people will be allowed to engage in team sports again. My daughter plays basketball and the association has come up with advice, like when kids train with basketballs provided by the club, the balls need to be disinfected before and after training.  ;D

Sorry to get back to this again. Today, my daughter read out the guidelines to me as proposed by the Austrian basketball season. I laughed so hard I was crying.

They say that balls need to be disinfected before and after training, and even in between, as much as possible (they advise after every 100 dribbles). If people are dunking, the ring has to be disinfected as well! And no high fives!  ;D  :D

This is so insane that I'm not sure whether they're serious or not. How much of this mesophobic craziness is going on all around the world, as we speak?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on May 06, 2020, 11:43:11 AM
Neven, this is political rather than scientific, I have noticed the need to say something which can be spun as "taking action", no matter whether it meets scientific scrutiny or even makes common sense.

If they were really serious every child would have to take an antibody test before returning to school and the remainder would have to take a covid test before every game.

Ergo the thinking mind must assume that they are only serious about image, not about actually combating the virus itself.

On another forum I wrote a short synopsis of the relaxation of lock down and what they really mean.  In short, it is accepted that people will continue to be infected, people will continue to die and so long as the volume of infections and deaths do not exceed a certain threshold, determined as either overwhelming the health system or likely to overwhelm it, then people being infected and people dying is an acceptable solution to keeping the economy running.

Everything else is politicking and spin!

I do hope, fervently, that this lesson does not seep into the climate change arena.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on May 06, 2020, 02:19:07 PM
Well people die of particle pollution every day and that is fine too so why not?

Those basketball guidelines are pretty pointless but that is just clueless fucks doing anything they can to mainly cover themselves.

I do hope, fervently, that this lesson does not seep into the climate change arena.

Actually wasn´t that one of the reasons we would have liked to prevent climate change?

We are not ruing the demise of ice because we lose a chance to discuss linear vs polynomial fit but for the very real knock on effects to our lives.

With Covid you can steer the ship. Ignore it a bit then have everyone stay inside if too many people keep dying but that is never going to work with AGW.

What do you think that will happen too the billions living in areas which literally become unliveable...well they are not going to stay there. What will happen if stuck weather wrecks the food harvests in too many places at once? What is going to happen if even republics don´t want beachfront property anymore?

Everybody prefers a normal live to calamity and we are depriving the future generations of a chance to have a normal live.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 06, 2020, 03:40:42 PM
On basketball sterile techniques:


The choice to play basketball is where the risk assessment begins. Each society must ask itself, is a basketball tournament worth the risk?

Given the low prevalence of C19 in Austria, the answer in Austria may be yes, depending on their tracing capacity.  In NYC or Rio de Janeiro, the answer is very likely no.


But even in Austria, there is a small chance for outbreaks to start. So how do you reduce the probability of an outbreak starting in a basketball game? The measures must satisfy the following questions:

 What is the effectiveness of the measure?
 What is the cost of the measure?
 What are the side effects of the measures?


For example:
The primary measure should be that everyone in the tournament is aware of the epidemic. If any family member is sick, they should all self-quarantine and go get tested.

Effectiveness of self-quarantine? Maximal
Cost? high
Side effect? moderate.


Quote
They say that balls need to be disinfected before and after training, and even in between, as much as possible (they advise after every 100 dribbles).

I admit this seems excessive but the action of continually disinfecting the ball might lower the probability of infection by very few points, but the act may be a worthy reminder of the invisible threat and the importance of self-isolation and testing. I see the very little cost to disinfecting the ball as often as possible unless there is a shortage of alcohol and no side effects.

Effectiveness of wiping the ball? Minimal except for high awareness effects.
Cost? Minimal
Side effect? Minimal

Quote
If people are dunking, the ring has to be disinfected as well!

Effectiveness of wiping the rim? minimal.
Cost? Minimal.
Side effects? Minimal

Quote
And no high fives!


This should be a CARDINAL rule, yet you are poking fun at it. The palm of the hand is the dirtiest of places other than the mouth. No high fives is a brilliant and obvious rule.

Effectiveness of no high fives? high

Cost of no high five? None

Side effects of no high five? A bit of awkwardness until you figure out a way to celebrate without touching the hands.


In the search of eliminating this threat as quickly as possible, many actions will be taken that will be worthless. Some even counterproductive. But as long as the awareness is there and there's unity of purpose the epidemic can be controlled.


To be honest basketball tournaments seem like the wrong thing to do for now.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 06, 2020, 04:33:59 PM


Quote
They say that balls need to be disinfected before and after training, and even in between, as much as possible (they advise after every 100 dribbles).

I admit this seems excessive but the action of continually disinfecting the ball might lower the probability of infection by very few points, but the act may be a worthy reminder of the invisible threat and the importance of self-isolation and testing. I see the very little cost to disinfecting the ball as often as possible unless there is a shortage of alcohol and no side effects.

Disagree.  Contaminated surfaces are a major route of transmission, not only for Covid, but other respiratory viruses, GI viruses, MRSA and ringworm.  This is why gym etiquette demands exercise equipment be wiped down between uses.

It's trivial to just have two balls for the game, disinfect frequently when balls are swapped.  Zero impact on play.  When the virus that spreads can kill vulnerable people, a few Chlorox wipes per game is a trivial cost.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on May 06, 2020, 06:25:44 PM
If the players all washed their hands before playing, and didnt' spit or cough on the ball, then it's not likely that the ball would get contaminated. But there's no harm in washing it off every once in a while.

It's much more likely that they will pass it on to other players through their breath. Are they all going to be wearing facemasks while playing?

https://www.livescience.com/how-covid-19-spreads-transmission-routes.html

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/studies-show-covid-19-virus-likely-has-multiple-infection-routes

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 06, 2020, 06:29:03 PM
If the players all washed their hands before playing, and didnt' spit or cough on the ball, then it's not likely that the ball would get contaminated. But there's no harm in washing it off every once in a while.

It's much more likely that they will pass it on to other players through their breath. Are they all going to be wearing facemasks while playing?

No.  Touching contaminated surfaces is the primary mechanism for transmission of these pathogens.  Merely breathing or coughing plays a secondary role for respiratory viruses only.  In wrestling, skin-to-skin contact is the major way to spread MRSA and ringworm.

Edit:  See, e.g.:

Fomite-mediated transmission as a sufficient pathway: a comparative analysis across three viral pathogens.
https://www-ncbi-nlm-nih-gov.ezproxyhhs.nihlibrary.nih.gov/pubmed/30373527 (https://www-ncbi-nlm-nih-gov.ezproxyhhs.nihlibrary.nih.gov/pubmed/30373527)

In the cited context, a contaminated basketball is a "fomite."
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on May 06, 2020, 06:56:00 PM
"Touching contaminated surfaces is the primary mechanism for transmission "

Not for covid19

Quote
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

    Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
    Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

I know what fomites are, and yes, care should be taken with those, too. But those are not the main way that the covid19 virus spreads, from pretty much everything I've read about it (and I've read quite bit).
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 06, 2020, 07:17:06 PM
"Touching contaminated surfaces is the primary mechanism for transmission "

Not for covid19

Quote
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.

    Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet)
    Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes or talks

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

I know what fomites are, and yes, care should be taken with those, too. But those are not the main way that the covid19 virus spreads, from pretty much everything I've read about it (and I've read quite bit).

Depends entirely on who is using what terminology.  if I'm infected and touch a doorknob, and then you touch that doorknob and get infected--is that "person to person spread"?  Yes, it is.  It's indirect person-to-person.  Direct person-to-person is if we shake hands (or if I cough in your face, which I promise I won't do).  If you've seen actual research to say that indirect person-to-person spread doesn't happen with Covid, I'd love to see the science.  I don't think such exists.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 06, 2020, 07:20:41 PM
Steve, but would you agree that the indirect person to person spread is less likely with Covid than an aerosol infection?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 06, 2020, 07:26:35 PM
Steve, but would you agree that the indirect person to person spread is less likely with Covid than an aerosol infection?

I would imagine it depends entirely on context.  In that case of spread among a group during choir practice, I'm sure it was mostly aerosol.  In settings like taking public transit it may well be both.  In school settings, and office settings, I'd guess mostly by contact with surfaces.  Hard to guess.

A lot of the research on respiratory virus transmission has looked at rhinoviruses in particular, maybe also the minor coronaviruses.  As a best guess, I'd see no reason for transmission of Covid to be different from the other respiratory viruses.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 06, 2020, 07:29:08 PM
Interesting! Thanks, Steve.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 06, 2020, 07:39:23 PM
Interesting! Thanks, Steve.

Happy to help.  On this note, I'm reminded of that case study of a cluster of transmission on that bus in China.  I think Vox posted a summary.  I believe the study was taken down, but not actually retracted.  One main takeaway is that nobody on that bus wearing a mask got infected. But another important detail was that someone getting on some minutes after the infected person got off also became infected.  It seems more than likely to me that that person got it by touching a contaminated surface.  It's possible that they all got it this way, and that the masks on others served mostly to prevent them from touching their mouth or nose.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on May 06, 2020, 07:53:12 PM
Sorry steve, but your just making shit up now.

person-to-person is clearly exactly what it means, direct transmission.

Indirect transmission is when a person touches an object and then someone else does. That's just the definition of these things, and you can't just say they mean something different.

https://www.healthline.com/health/disease-transmission#indirect-contact

And the droplets can stay in the air for three hours, so it is not necessary for the person who got on the bus to have gotten it from lingering droplets from the vector.

This is too serious to just make things up and hold positions that are not backed up by science just because you want to be 'right.' Leave that type of shit to the likes of Trump.

Again, that is not so say that we should not be very, very careful with potentially contaminated fomites. Just that they simply are not the primary means how the covid19 virus seems to be spreading.

Thanks,
Gotta go garden,
Stay safe
wili
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 06, 2020, 07:56:57 PM
Thanks for the perspective, Steve. It was the chor and the bus stories that made me think an aerosol transmission seemed more likely while in the beginning, droplet transmission seemed more likely from what i heard.

It's a bummer we still know so little about this thing and how it really spreads. This is a lession to be learned still...
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: kassy on May 06, 2020, 08:05:28 PM
And thus we are going round in circles.

How many kids would still be carriers after a month at home? Probably zero so just let them play for now.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on May 06, 2020, 08:10:03 PM
Yes, there is much to learn.

But one thing we DO know is that the MAIN means of transmission is through droplets an infected person spews into the air when coughing (or even talking or breathing) and direct person-to-person contact. Getting it from objects touched by infected people is possible, but it's not the main means of transmission.

Quote
How does coronavirus spread?

The coronavirus is thought to spread mainly from person to person. This can happen between people who are in close contact with one another.

Droplets that are produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes may land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby, or possibly be inhaled into their lungs.


A person infected with coronavirus — even one with no symptoms — may emit aerosols when they talk or breathe. Aerosols are infectious viral particles that can float or drift around in the air for up to three hours.

Another person can breathe in these aerosols and become infected with the coronavirus. This is why everyone should cover their nose and mouth when they go out in public.

https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-basics

(But don't trust me, just google it. I don't want to spread inaccurate info, so do correct me if you actually have counter evidence. But this is one thing that we actually do seem to know something fairly certain about this otherwise rather cryptic virus. Let's be clear about what's clear, even as we struggle to figure out the less clear areas. Thanks, off to garden now, I promise :) )

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 06, 2020, 08:20:17 PM
I think we talk past each other, Wili. The question i asked was about the likelihood of either of those ways of infection. Your source states both (aerosol and droplet spread)  but doesn't give hints on likelihood.

Anyhow, i don't want to disturb the thread anymore and will recede now too. (not into the garden though)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 06, 2020, 09:59:18 PM
Disagree.  Contaminated surfaces are a major route of transmission, not only for Covid, but other respiratory viruses, GI viruses, MRSA and ringworm.  This is why gym etiquette demands exercise equipment be wiped down between uses.

Yes, but in a gym, one would expect each piece of equipment to be wiped before anyone else touches it. A basketball will be touched by many between each wipe, thus even if it is sterile, if the players do not disinfect their hands the chains of infections will not be broken.

But honestly, even if it is just a ritual, it is the right mentality. The more people are aware of the danger the easier it is to avoid it.  Every little bit counts.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on May 06, 2020, 10:35:43 PM
I'm back ;D

Good points, blum.

One lesson from covid19 is that I find it surprisingly comforting after gardening to be washing my hands just because they have plain old dirt on them, not to protect myself and others from a deadly virus!

I do wonder if gardening is something more people will re-discover as they have time on their hands, and perhaps some anxieties about food chain stability.

What are others finding to be welcome breaks from covid news?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluesky on May 07, 2020, 11:36:04 PM
C40 statement today:
https://www.c40.org/press_releases/taskforce-principles

Let's hope the below statements of principales will be put into action before government and Central Banks bail out (through non discriminative Quantitative Easing) of oil and gas, airlines company and car manufacturers counteract this gesture of Goodwill, and that instead the so called governments will sustain economically the workers (but not the Directors) of these companies in view of readjustment (e.g. transforming car manufacturing plant into car retrofitting plant from thermic to electric) and reverse the bail out, but  we can always dream...and when I seen that M.  Bloomberg is the President of the board of the C40 I may cast some doubt, however local initiative in Milan , London, and elsewhere give some glimpse of hope...

"C40 mayors issue call for a healthy, equitable and sustainable economic recovery to COVID-19 pandemic.
Statement endorsed by mayors of Los Angeles, Athens, Austin, Barcelona, Bogotá, Boston, Buenos Aires, Chicago,  Copenhagen, Curitiba, Durban, Freetown, Hong Kong, Houston, Lima, Lisbon, London, Medellín, Melbourne, Mexico City, Milan, Montréal, New Orleans, New York City, Oslo, Portland, Quezon City, Rotterdam, Salvador, São Paulo, San Francisco, Santiago,  Seattle, Seoul, Sydney, Tel Aviv-Yafo, Vancouver

"Statement of Principles:
The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted the world’s cities. It is not just a global health crisis, but a social and economic crisis, the effects of which will be felt for years to come. In many ways it is also an urban phenomenon, with its roots in environmental destruction and humanity’s relationship with nature.
As mayors, we are committed to supporting the residents of our cities and protecting their health, based on the guidance of expert advice. As members of C40 Cities, we are sharing what we have learned over the past months, and the knowledge we have gained in responding to other crises - public health, economic and environmental.
It is clear that the harm caused by COVID-19 has not been equitable. The most vulnerable and the most disadvantaged are being hurt the most by both the health and economic impacts of COVID-19. It is also clear that the world was not fully prepared for this crisis, despite lessons learned from SARS, MERS, Ebola and other recent public health and climate emergencies. This is, in part, a consequence of the undermining of international mechanisms and institutions which were built to bring peace and prosperity to all. It is, in part, a consequence of ignoring science-based knowledge.
We, as leaders of major cities across the globe, are clear that our ambition should not be a return to ‘normal’ – our goal is to build a better, more sustainable, more resilient and fairer society out of the recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. Therefore, our joint strategy to support the recovery of our cities and their residents from COVID-19 will be governed by these principles:
The recovery should not be a return to ‘business as usual’ - because that is a world on track for 3°C or more of over-heating;
The recovery, above all, must be guided by an adherence to public health and scientific expertise, in order to assure the safety of those who live in our cities;
Excellent public services, public investment and increased community resilience will form the most effective basis for the recovery;
The recovery must address issues of equity that have been laid bare by the impact of the crisis – for example, workers who are now recognised as essential should be celebrated and compensated accordingly and policies must support people living in informal settlements;
The recovery must improve the resilience of our cities and communities. Therefore, investments should be made to protect against future threats – including the climate crisis – and to support those people impacted by climate and health risks;
Climate action can help accelerate economic recovery and enhance social equity, through the use of new technologies and the creation of new industries and new jobs. These will drive wider benefits for our residents, workers, students, businesses and visitors;
We commit to doing everything in our power and the power of our city governments to ensure that the recovery from COVID-19 is healthy, equitable and sustainable;
We commit to using our collective voices and individual actions to ensure that national governments support both cities and the investments needed in cities, to deliver an economic recovery that is healthy, equitable and sustainable;
We commit to using our collective voices and individual actions to ensure that international and regional institutions invest directly in cities to support a healthy, equitable and sustainable recovery."
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 10, 2020, 10:25:57 AM
I guess this belongs in the "lessons" thread rather than the "science" thread?

"Messaging" in the UK mainstream media over the past few days.

Who do you suppose will take "the blame" for the second wave?

http://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/05/10/covid-19-messaging-in-the-united-kingdom/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: vox_mundi on May 11, 2020, 02:10:14 AM
Accepting Death Is Not an Option
https://earther.gizmodo.com/accepting-death-is-not-an-option-1843251267

The worst-case scenario with coronavirus is not mass death. It’s that people come to accept mass death—to accept that someone will die in the U.S. every 30 seconds as “just how it is.” Yet that is the proposition being thrust on us now.

Yesterday, 2,746 people died of covid-19 in the U.S., the highest daily death toll recorded since the first confirmed deaths on American soil in February. That’s on the high end of leaked Trump administration forecasts for this time period and shows the 3,000 daily deaths come June in those forecasts might be wishful thinking. This is, in a word, horrific. But the Trump administration and its backers from conservative media to the small but vocal “reopen” movement are trying to convince people it’s not only normal but worth it.

They have turned the idea we should avoid the Bad Thing—namely, the needless deaths of thousands of Americans—on its head, arguing we should embrace it full-on and just plow forward with reopening the country. It’s a monstrous idea in the here and now, but it also sets up a dangerous precedent, priming people to accept policy failure—or, worse, reject legitimate policy solutions—on what remains the biggest issue facing humanity: climate change. Unless we demand more from our leaders and each other, we risk an even bigger catastrophe in our lifetimes.

There is nothing acceptable about 3,000 people dying every day from coronavirus. What’s so nauseating about this is that we know what it looks like to contain the virus. We’ve seen it in action. Countries as diverse as South Korea, New Zealand, and Vietnam have all successfully flattened the curve of death and suffering.

The U.S. could do this. Instead, next to none of it is happening, and the steps that are being taken are half measures at best for a country of this size and geographical scope. At best, we have a patchwork of state-level responses, and few if any can be called adequate. As David Wallace Wells writes in New York Magazine, “[t]here is still no plan for the end of the coronavirus crisis.”

Indeed, instead of taking steps to try to wind down the pandemic here, the plan is to use it as a bludgeon in the culture war. Donald Trump has recently and repeatedly described citizens as “warriors.” No doubt his word choice was influenced by the Call of Duty cosplay going on on the steps of state capitol buildings around the country, a movement to end the life-saving lockdown measures, which Trump has thrown his support behind. The president’s rhetoric only further turns coronavirus into a way to divide people, inviting them to take selfish measures under the banner of a nebulous concept of “freedom.”

In the narrow view of the “reopen” protesters, freedom means the government plays no role in protecting the greater good, that you don’t owe your fellow humans anything, that being able to get Chick-fil-A without wearing a mask is an essential expression of liberty and worthy of 3,000 people losing their lives. It also shows some kind of magical thinking that you or a loved one won’t be among the 3,000 people that die on a given day next month after succumbing to fluid filling their lungs or heart failure.

In some ways, it’s the logical extension of the conservative movement, which has put individualism and corporations over the public good. A “reopen” protester will argue that that the government should get out of the way and allow anyone who wants to go back to work, or to the store, or to a beach to do just that. Anyone who’s afraid of getting covid-19 is welcome to stay home. That reasoning, however, will lead to greater rates of infection, according to health experts, which puts everyone at increased risk regardless of how they feel about lockdown order.

The idea that there is an individualist solution to the pandemic is laughable, yet that is both what the Trump administration and rank and file conservatives have set their sights on. That’s why the movement to “reopen” plays down the death toll and plays up the perceived injustice of taking actions to not spread a deadly virus. In essence, it’s a rejection of society itself.

“Sometimes when people feel vulnerable or angry, their aggression can take the form of wanting others to suffer, like a sense of revenge or retaliation against perceived injustice,” Wendy Greenspun, a clinical psychologist practicing in New York who has focused on the climate crisis in recent years, tells Earther. “This is the darker side of our humanity, and not easy to look at. And sometimes that kind of aggressive wish is bolstered by others who band together, uniting against a perceived enemy.”

It’s depressing in any light, but especially as a climate person. For decades, climate action has been held hostage by a small minority of liars and Republican politicians to profit a few fabulously wealthy companies. Today, more than three-quarters of Americans are worried about climate change and want action. Majorities support a variety of policies under the Green New Deal and a green stimulus, including conservatives. Yet the federal government has shown no appetite to actually do that, remaining captured by fossil fuel interests, the status quo, and fear of the astroturf opposition.

The reopen movement provides the political cover for politicians to ignore the science and popular will to enact shortsighted policies—and throw up their hands when more people get sick and die. It also gives us a preview of how some people and leaders will respond to the steps necessary to address climate change, which will require similar bold actions that will upend the status quo.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 11, 2020, 01:28:35 PM
"Messaging" in the UK mainstream media

After BoJo's speech to the nation last night, this morning on our virtual doormats we see (depending on the colour of our rosettes):

http://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/05/10/covid-19-messaging-in-the-united-kingdom/#May-11
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 12, 2020, 04:34:26 PM
https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1259914363227406336
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 14, 2020, 02:07:39 PM
Quote
XKCD Comic (@xkcdComic)5/13/20, 6:21 PM
Common Cold xkcd.com/2306/ m.xkcd.com/2306/

Alt/title text: "Not even metapneumovirus, easily the common cold virus with the coolest name, warrants our sympathy. Colds suck. No mercy."
https://twitter.com/xkcdcomic/status/1260696791726448641
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on May 15, 2020, 09:42:39 PM
And here is the Lesson From Down Under

It's not BAU - it's even worse BAU

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/the-coronavirus-is-terrible-and-its-good-we-are-all-in-this-together-except-for-everyone-who-isnt
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on May 21, 2020, 09:28:04 PM
Will Everything Be Different Now?
https://www.thecatholicthing.org/2020/05/20/will-everything-be-different-now/
Quote
I have a slightly different idea.  To prepare for the next unpredictable crisis, perhaps we should do what we can to make sure that nearly every business and person in the country has a three-month buffer to subsist on if the economy should come to a complete standstill again.

No more being highly leveraged, living on edge.  No being steeped in debt, so that even a week’s pause in business means financial ruin.   The top 85 percent of the economy should be able to survive for three months on savings, with no need for multi-trillion-dollar government bail outs, hand-outs, or loans.  Each person and business could be encouraged to think of being prepared in this way as his or her civic duty.

Civic duty?  Who thinks that way?  We should.  Too many people don’t.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2020, 12:37:57 AM
How to memorably illustrate two-meter social distancing.

Evan Hadfield on Twitter: "The Canadian metric system”
https://mobile.twitter.com/evan_hadfield/status/1262795831444471809
And others...   More at the link.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 22, 2020, 10:18:15 PM
CJ Hopkins at Consent Factory (https://consentfactory.org/2020/05/20/brave-new-normal-part-2/):

Quote
Brave New Normal (Part 2)

(https://consentfactory.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/corona-kids-boxes-cropped-vanessa-beeley.png?w=693&h=400&crop=1)

(...)

In order to understand how this works, imagine for a moment that you’re one of these people who are normally skeptical of the government and the media, and that you consider yourself an anti-authoritarian, or at least a friend of the working classes, and now you are beginning to realize that there is no Alien-Terrorist-Death-Flu (just as there were no “WMDs,” no “Russian hackers,” no “pee-tape,” etc.), and so it dawns on you that you’ve been behaving like a hysterical, brainwashed, fascist minion of the very establishment you supposedly oppose … or at the very least like an abject coward.

Imagine how you might feel right now.

You would probably feel pretty foolish, right? And more than a little ashamed of yourself. So … OK, what would you do about that? Well, you would have a couple of options.

Option Number One would be admit what you did, apologize to whomever you have to, and try like hell not to do it again. Not many people are going to choose this option.

Most people are going to choose Option Number Two, which is to desperately try to deny what they did, or to desperately rationalize what they did (and in many cases are still actively doing). Now, this is not as easy at it sounds, because doing that means they will have to continue to believe (or at least pretend to believe) that there is an Alien-Terrorist-Death-Flu which is going to kill hundreds of millions of people the moment we stop locking everyone down, and forcing them to “social distance,” and so on. They will have to continue to pretend to believe that this Alien-Terrorist-Death-Flu exists, even though they know it doesn’t.

And this is where that Orwellian “doublethink” comes in. People (i.e., these “anti-authoritarians,” not to mention the majority of the “normal” public) are not going to want to face the fact that they’ve been behaving like a bunch of fascists (or cowards) for no justifiable reason whatsoever. So, what they are going to do instead is desperately pretend that their behavior was justified and that the propaganda they have been swallowing, and regurgitating, was not propaganda, but rather, “the Truth.”

In other words, in order to avoid their shame, they are going to do everything in their power to reify the official narrative and delegitimize anyone attempting to expose it as the fiction that it is. They are going to join in with the corporate media that are calling us “extremists,” “conspiracy theorists,” “anti-vaxxers,” and other such epithets. They’re going to accuse those of us on the Left of aligning with “far-Right Republican militias,” and “Boogaloo accelerationists,” and of being members of the Russian-backed “Querfront,” and assorted other horrible things meant to scare errant leftists into line.

Above all, they are going to continue to insist, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that we are “under attack” by a “killer virus” which could “strike again at any time,” and so we have to maintain at least some level of totalitarianism and paranoia, or else … well, you know, the terrorists win.

It is this reification of the official narrative by those too ashamed to admit what they did (and try to determine why they did it), and not the narrative or the propaganda itself, that will eventually establish the “Brave New Normal” as “reality” (assuming the process works as smoothly as it did with the “War on Terror,” the “War on Populism,” and the “Cold War” narratives). The facts, the data, the “science” won’t matter. Reality is consensus reality … and a new consensus is being formed at the moment.

There is still a chance (right now, not months from now) for these people (some of whom are rather influential) to stand up and say, “Whoops! I screwed up and went all Nazi there for a bit.” But I seriously doubt that is going to happen.

It’s much more likely that the Brave New Normal (or some intermittent, scaled-down version of it) will gradually become our new reality. People will get used to being occasionally “locked down,” and being ordered to wear masks, and not to touch each other, and to standing in designated circles and boxes, like they got used to the “anti-Terrorism measures,” and believing that Trump is a “Russian asset.” The coming economic depression will be blamed on the Alien-Terrorist-Death-Flu, rather than on the lockdown that caused it. Millions of people will be condemned to extreme poverty, or debt-enslaved for the rest of their lives, but they’ll be too busy trying to survive to mount any kind of broad resistance.

The children, of course, won’t know any better. They will grow up with their “isolation boxes,” and “protective barriers,” and “contact tracing,” and they will live in constant low-grade fear of another killer virus, or terrorist attack, or Russian-backed white supremacist uprising, or whatever boogeyman might next appear to menace the global capitalist empire, which, it goes without saying, will be just fine.

(...)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: etienne on May 23, 2020, 09:53:38 AM
Interesting article from CJ Hopkins, part 1 is also interesting, but I can't put all the pieces together.

What bothers me most is that he says that lockdowns are there to reinforce the grip of the powerful on society, but Trump is an anti-lockdown.

I'm not sure that the picture is so easy to take, but I agree with the fact that governments have difficulties to recognize that they could have been wrong. When you start with "it's a flu", make a lockdown, try wide testing but don't find many cases so you stop doing it - but people willing to be tested still can't excepted if they have the right symptoms, than require masks without providing precises rules so that the police can decide if you're right or wrong, do some tracking without giving yourself the capacity to do it (restaurants will open soon, but they won't have to keep a track of who was there - don't need a name, just a phone number)... somehow it looks like they recommend what they have the capacity to offer... some steps must have been wrong, but if you can't discuss it, than you loose your credibility, people stop following your advises, an your policies - even the good ones - can only be implemented with the help of the police.

Where I live, people don't inform the Police when neighbors don't respect the rules, even Policemen living here don't do it, but at work, policemen can be annoying, I guess they need to show some results.

What worries me most is that science doesn't seem to be an issue. Why should airlines not be obliged to keep free seats, but restaurants have to ? Why were supermarket allowed to open the hobby section while hobby shops, bookstores... had to stay closed. Why do we save and open first companies that are worsening AGW ? If you can sit for two hours in a plane, why can't you in a movie-theater ? Why are kids playing together on the street, but not in school ? Cases are really very low now, being closer to one-another with masks outside of a building seems to be relatively safe, so what's the issue ? Why is it not possible to provide general guidelines, why is it not possible to explain what is safe and what is not ? Why is it not possible if some areas have no cases ? I feel that if people have to hide in order to meet makes it more dangerous, you can't open the window if you are having fun with friends, you would hear it from the outside. There is also an extra stupid question, why do some people feel that they are so important that they go to work with fever ?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 23, 2020, 10:52:32 AM
Quote
What bothers me most is that he says that lockdowns are there to reinforce the grip of the powerful on society, but Trump is an anti-lockdown.

I think this phenomenon is explained by the following meme:

(https://i.redd.it/u5e3u7zgycm41.jpg)

If leaders act swiftly and decisively against epidemics, nothing happens. The leaders are successful but the measures are seen as draconian and unnecessary, precisely because nothing happened. A victory against the virus is defeat at the polls.

If leaders do not act swiftly and mass casualty events happen, then they can act because people get terrified and demand action.

Trump, Musk, and other influencers are betting the sacrifice of health care workers will succeed, so they are attempting to gain "credibility" on the backs of their sacrifice. They know one day in the not too distant future this will be over, like every pandemic before this one. Regardless of the body count, THIS TOO SHALL PASS.

At that point, they will say "see, I told you so" and most people will want to believe them regardless of the body count. Those who worked the front lines will be muzzled and forgotten. Those with dead families know but mourning is weird. Mourning is a very easy process to manipulate by fake "I told you so".

Is their bet a good one? Yes it is. We will sacrifice thousands of people and many healthcare workers will die, but this will eventually be over and we will want to forget it. Trump, Musk and other influencers will be there to reap the rewards while causing so much death.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: etienne on May 23, 2020, 05:50:30 PM
Good article in Time about College graduating young adults in 2020
https://time.com/5839765/college-graduation-2020/
Quote
How COVID-19 Will Shape the Class of 2020 For the Rest of Their Lives
Elissa DeFranceschi, Drexel University Class of 2020, with her boyfriend in Philadelphia Elissa DeFranceschi, Drexel University Class of 2020, with her boyfriend in Philadelphia
Hannah Beier
By Charlotte Alter | Photographs by Hannah Beier
May 21, 2020 6:57 AM EDT

They call it commencement because it’s supposed to be a new beginning.

College graduation is one of life’s last clean transitions, a final passage from adolescence to adulthood that is predictable in ways other transitions rarely are. Relationships end with breakups or death, jobs often end with quitting or firing, but college is one of the only things in life that ends with a fresh start. Except when it doesn’t.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: etienne on May 25, 2020, 10:53:57 PM
If the way lockdown were organised where quite similar, the opening is quite different and much more politically oriented. Movie-theaters, air travel and pubs open before playgrounds in Luxembourg, it's because social distancing is quite difficult between kids.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: NeilT on May 26, 2020, 12:17:00 AM
If leaders act swiftly and decisively against epidemics, nothing happens. The leaders are successful but the measures are seen as draconian and unnecessary, precisely because nothing happened. A victory against the virus is defeat at the polls.

If leaders do not act swiftly and mass casualty events happen, then they can act because people get terrified and demand action.

I would put that slightly differently.  I would say that once terrified, they will accept action which could not have been contemplated before.

The first part is not supposition. It has a clear history and very recently.

In the years following Y2K I was challenged many times that "we spent all that money and nothing happened", therefore it was clearly a fraud.

With this mindset we are doomed anyway. There was enough clear evidence that Y2K existed. There was never going to be 100% success and that proved to be true.  However there were so few issues that it missed the notice of the masses.

Let's face facts, the general body of public don't want to pay to fix their problems, they want to pay people to tell them their problem is going away.

That is not a subtle difference although it might sound similar.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on May 27, 2020, 11:04:25 AM
Quote
I would put that slightly differently.  I would say that once terrified, they will accept action which could not have been contemplated before.

Correct. Wuhan/Iran/Italy hospitals and morgues overwhelmed, "it's just a flu", keep shopping.
NYC hospitals and morgues overwhelmed, its a pandemic, close everything.

 The same thing will happen with climate change. With both, there are points of no return.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 27, 2020, 01:56:43 PM
One parallel between AGW and SARS-CoV-19 is the focus on adaptation rather than mitigation. Yesterday in bed, I thought about how much better it would be to spend those billions of dollars/euros for vaccine research on population health and resilience (sustainable agriculture, etc). But the system decides otherwise.

A population healthy in body and mind can prevent and cope with most things, especially pandemics. But the system wants sick, dependent people that are easily frightened by death.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on May 27, 2020, 03:24:08 PM
Neven, a healthy diet, sustainable agriculture and functional well resourced health care system are all important goals. However Covid-19 is caused by a virus, not the lack of such things. We can eat healthy and exercise all we want but Covid would still infect and kill people.

If/when vaccine is available we can start to vaccinate risk groups (=old people) which will immediately reduce mortality and remove pressure from health care. Reduced mortality will allow governments to lift restrictions. Most importantly it will remove fear and increase confidence and thus enable the economy to recover.  I think it's fair to say that the worst Covid-19 impact is economical.

I don't believe for a second there is a "system" wanting this or that. Truth is much scarier. World is a web of conflicting interests pulling each way and major issues are mitigated simply because something must be done when they hit the fan. To prevent pandemics (or a catastrophic climate change) requires preemptive action, which is hard. Unfortunately some of the most powerful countries are utterly inept even to mitigate the problem.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: etienne on May 28, 2020, 07:15:22 PM
Well, I think I agree with Neven. If we had been reasonable, hadn't put the older generation in retirement home, the younger generation in nursery, so that both parents can work like crazy, I think we would have been able to handle much better this pandemic.
Instead of going toward a more sustainable way of life, I feel that we are running toward a major crash. Well, good friends are getting good contracts from the state.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 29, 2020, 12:34:01 PM
Neven, a healthy diet, sustainable agriculture and functional well resourced health care system are all important goals. However Covid-19 is caused by a virus, not the lack of such things.

Come on, bluice. The impact a virus can have is in large part determined by factors like general population health, demographics, etc. If your population has been systematically weakened for decades through profitable addictions, overprocessing of food and unsustainable soil-destroying agriculture, it becomes much easier for a virus - which is a natural occurrence - to wreak havoc and (help) induce panics that then cause further havoc.

Quote
We can eat healthy and exercise all we want but Covid would still infect and kill people.

Yes, that's what diseases tend to do. We would do well to accept that instead of declaring a war on death.

Quote
If/when vaccine is available we can start to vaccinate risk groups (=old people) which will immediately reduce mortality and remove pressure from health care. Reduced mortality will allow governments to lift restrictions. Most importantly it will remove fear and increase confidence and thus enable the economy to recover.  I think it's fair to say that the worst Covid-19 impact is economical.

To me, focussing on a vaccine is misplaced, if only because of the massive conflict of interest due to industry pressures. But I agree that it will bring psychological relief, now that we're mired in this overhyped situation.

Quote
I don't believe for a second there is a "system" wanting this or that. Truth is much scarier. World is a web of conflicting interests pulling each way and major issues are mitigated simply because something must be done when they hit the fan. To prevent pandemics (or a catastrophic climate change) requires preemptive action, which is hard. Unfortunately some of the most powerful countries are utterly inept even to mitigate the problem.

Of course they are inept, as they have been made inept, and are now willfully inept. Because there is a system that wants something, namely the further growth and further concentration of concentrated wealth. Everything that has to do with this SARS-CoV-2 crisis (its coming about, its impact, the reaction to it, the consequences) has been directly caused or indirectly influenced by this system. The main reason it is hard to prevent these things - for instance, by making populations more healthy physically and mentally, so they become more independent - is because it would be bad for concentrated wealth.

Hence the castrating expression: How ya gonna pay fer it (if you need to pay me first)?
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on May 29, 2020, 12:57:45 PM
declaring a war on death.

Try to hold your breath for 5 minutes.

The moment your reflexes kick in and make you breathe, that's the war on death every living thing is declaring.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on May 29, 2020, 01:07:30 PM

Come on, bluice. The impact a virus can have is in large part determined by factors like general population health, demographics, etc. If your population has been systematically weakened for decades through profitable addictions, overprocessing of food and unsustainable soil-destroying agriculture, it becomes much easier for a virus - which is a natural occurrence - to wreak havoc and (help) induce panics that then cause further havoc.

Correct, but that is a massive if. When was the point in time people were healthier and more resistant to disease than nowadays? With the exception of the US with its disastrous health care industry people are living longer than ever. In fact we are panicking because we are so used to NOT dying to a contagious disease. Early/mid 20th century people still regularly died to small pox, diphteria, measles, TB etc. etc.

I do agree the comparison between present day and last century is a bit unfair. It's not either-or. We could have used all our medical knowledge and technology AND better sustainable general health to build a more resilient society.

Of course they are inept, as they have been made inept, and are now willfully inept. Because there is a system that wants something, namely the further growth and further concentration of concentrated wealth. Everything that has to do with this SARS-CoV-2 crisis (its coming about, its impact, the reaction to it, the consequences) has been directly caused or indirectly influenced by this system. The main reason it is hard to prevent these things - for instance, by making populations more healthy physically and mentally, so they become more independent - is because it would be bad for concentrated wealth.

Hence the castrating expression: How ya gonna pay fer it (if you need to pay me first)?
There obviously is a part of our society whether you call it 1% or The Concentrated Wealth or whatever that is out of touch with the realities of the rest of us. No question about it.

I don't like treating them as a one single entity however as it's too obvious people like Soros, Putin, Trump, Gates or Murdoch are all part of this establishment but have nevertheless completely different and conflicting interests. To group them all as one running a secretive system is too close to conspiracy theory or marxist class war IMO. It's more like a feudal society or 19th century great power game where the Powerful fight each other for glory and the small people get trampled by their war machines. A history repeating.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on May 29, 2020, 05:08:23 PM
An Old Lesson re-learnt - To survive The Empire must give The Peepul their Bread & Circuses.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/29/take-that-covid-19-you-cant-stop-the-compulsory-emotional-juggernaut-that-is-footy
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on May 31, 2020, 04:04:10 PM
There obviously is a part of our society whether you call it 1% or The Concentrated Wealth or whatever that is out of touch with the realities of the rest of us. No question about it.

I don't like treating them as a one single entity however as it's too obvious people like Soros, Putin, Trump, Gates or Murdoch are all part of this establishment but have nevertheless completely different and conflicting interests. To group them all as one running a secretive system is too close to conspiracy theory or marxist class war IMO. It's more like a feudal society or 19th century great power game where the Powerful fight each other for glory and the small people get trampled by their war machines. A history repeating.

There are a handful of pundits, the most known among them being Anand Ghiridaradas, who discuss the problem of concentrated wealth, but almost all of them talk about 'the rich', being out of touch, etc. Last year or so, Joe Biden stated that the rich shouldn't be demonised and I agreed with him. Of course, he said it because he is a loyal servant of the rich, but I still agreed with him.

Because 'the rich' aren't the problem. The problem is their wealth. We think that people are in control of everything, but actually it's the wealth that is in control. The rich are just temporary stewards. It doesn't matter if they are out of touch or not, they are the servants of their wealth. Their wealth owns them.

And what their wealth wants, is to get bigger and eat up the wealth of other servants. It may seem as if these patches of wealth have 'completely different and conflicting interests' , as you call it, but they all want the same thing: Grow and get further concentrated.

This entity or phenomenon comes about as soon as a large enough group of people join together in some enterprise (like a society), but it's not a conscious or intelligent being, which is why it ends up destroying itself at the end of each cycle.

This isn't about the rich, it's about their wealth. It needs to be capped, so it cannot grow endlessly and destroy itself.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on June 01, 2020, 04:16:38 AM
Dear Neven, capping will not work because our whole society is now built on a social hierarchy where your status/successfulness is measured by the amount of accumulated material wealth. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affluence)

I think you have to go one step further.

In my opinion it is material wealth (=affluence) that is the problem. Affluence (always having/getting more than you need, disposable income) is unsustainable and destructive for human society and living nature. In living nature (all other lifeforms) there is only, for some, temporary/seasonal affluence/wealth (food/shelter/safety/water).

People must stop with having the incentive to accumulate material wealth. That means that many aspects from society (status in material wealth hierarchy), culture and economic systems must change. That will not happen without the whole globalised high-tech civilisation crashing. Which is imminent (<10 yeas imo).

In the end it all boils down to the use of (high) technology and lack of responsibility/awareness for the wider consequences of its use (morality w.r.t. all other lifeforms). Our use of tech is because we think we have supremacy (we are 'higher', better) over all of living nature, over all other lifeforms, over all other leaves-on-the-tree-of-life. Our high-tech acts as Agent Orange on The Tree-of-Life.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: etienne on June 01, 2020, 10:24:12 AM
Maybe it would be easier to limit the size of the companies, but technology makes that people all want the same product, we have the same problem with fashion, most teenagers want the same t-shirt, I was never able to convince my kids to design their t-shirt themselves, and when buying organic cotton ones, they only agree with the plain ones.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on June 04, 2020, 02:53:37 PM
Too much is invested in the pre-Covid economy to prevent a determination to return to BAU

"I'm back!" Air pollution in China returns to "normal".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/03/air-pollution-in-china-back-to-pre-covid-levels-and-europe-may-follow
Air pollution in China back to pre-Covid levels and Europe may follow
Cleaner skies were a silver lining of pandemic but data indicates air quality receding as lockdowns eased

Quote
“The rapid rebound in air pollution and coal consumption levels across China is an early warning of what a smokestack industry-led rebound could look like,” said Crea’s lead analyst, Lauri Myllyvirta. “Highly polluting industries have been faster to recover from the crisis than the rest of the economy. It is essential for policymakers to prioritise clean energy.”

The energy consultancy group Wood Mackenzie predicts China’s oil demand will recover to near normal levels in the second quarter of 2020.

In Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic, NO2 levels are now just 14% lower than last year, having briefly dropped by almost half. In Shanghai, the latest levels are 9% higher than last year
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: sidd on June 05, 2020, 11:09:48 PM
America's Finest News Source: unexpected death, grief and loss

"they had left their elderly relative Beverly Foley to die in a nursing home, but not like this. "

"we figured we’d leave her there and forget about her until she died, obviously"

"I thought I’d at least see her one more time, next year, on her birthday."

"heartbroken that they were legally not allowed to attend the funeral that most of them would have skipped."

https://local.theonion.com/family-left-elderly-grandmother-to-die-in-nursing-home-1843922346


sidd

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: blumenkraft on June 07, 2020, 02:31:30 PM
I think the people in both pictures are tools of the ruling class. Divide and rule...

(https://i.redd.it/eawm6908ua351.png)
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on June 08, 2020, 01:20:19 AM
The world's 25 richest just made over a quarter trillion dollars in just the last two months

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/05/22/billionaires-zuckerberg-bezos/
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on June 08, 2020, 03:23:49 AM
wili, that hyperlink is full of facebook identifications. You should cut it off from the question mark onward.
When I enter the cleaned up link in the browser (firefox) I get this working link without identifiers:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2020/05/22/billionaires-zuckerberg-bezos/#5f6d137ed610

That's $60,000,000,000 per person per year.

Wow, those guys (&dolls?) must be really hard workers.
Good that our governments are helping them out with our money.

Is this what they call "earned income"? Are these people what's called "The hard working American"?

Lesson from COVID-19: don't try so hard, because the system is rigged!
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on June 08, 2020, 05:10:53 AM
Thanks, nan
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on June 11, 2020, 02:03:41 PM
Lesson from COVID-19: don't try so hard, because the system is rigged!
Shock horror, amazement.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/10/its-not-capitalism-why-are-global-financial-markets-zooming-up

'It's not capitalism': why are global financial markets zooming up?

Quote
“It’s quite sickening to see Mr Powell bail out Wall Street types at the expense of the man on the street,” he said. “Socialise the losses, privatise the gains. It’s not capitalism.”

Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser of the insurance giant Allianz, says massive Fed support was not just propping up unproductive “zombie companies” but risks creating “zombie markets” which are so distorted that capital is not used properly. “It also adds to the disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street [and] worsens wealth inequality,” he says. Damien Klassen of Nucleus Wealth in Melbourne says the feeling that investors could not lose is stacked with risk and moral hazard. “It’s OK if the money created by central banks goes into productive things like infrastructure but it has no value if it goes into bidding up asset prices. That’s where the moral hazard comes in..

...the current action on stock markets appears to be totally disconnected from the real world economy.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2020, 09:33:20 PM
After this I think a visit to the foul language thread is necessary

Are the Master of The Universe listening?  I rather think the answer is NO.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/17/pandemics-destruction-nature-un-who-legislation-trade-green-recovery
Pandemics result from destruction of nature, say UN and WHO
Quote
Experts call for legislation and trade deals worldwide to encourage green recovery[/b]
Pandemics such as coronavirus are the result of humanity’s destruction of nature, according to leaders at the UN, WHO and WWF International, and the world has been ignoring this stark reality for decades.

The illegal and unsustainable wildlife trade as well as the devastation of forests and other wild places were still the driving forces behind the increasing number of diseases leaping from wildlife to humans, the leaders told the Guardian.

They are calling for a green and healthy recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, in particular by reforming destructive farming and unsustainable diets.

A WWF report, also published on Wednesday, warns: “The risk of a new [wildlife-to-human] disease emerging in the future is higher than ever, with the potential to wreak havoc on health, economies and global security.”

WWF’s head in the UK said post-Brexit trade deals that fail to protect nature would leave Britain “complicit in increasing the risk of the next pandemic”.

High-level figures have issued a series of warnings since March, with the world’s leading biodiversity experts saying even more deadly disease outbreaks are likely in future unless the rampant destruction of the natural world is rapidly halted.

Earlier in June, the UN environment chief and a leading economist said Covid-19 was an “SOS signal for the human enterprise” and that current economic thinking did not recognise that human wealth depends on nature’s health.

“We have seen many diseases emerge over the years, such as Zika, Aids, Sars and Ebola and they all originated from animal populations under conditions of severe environmental pressures,” said Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, head of the UN convention on biological diversity, Maria Neira, the World Health Organization director for environment and health, and Marco Lambertini, head of WWF International, in the Guardian article.

With coronavirus, “these outbreaks are manifestations of our dangerously unbalanced relationship with nature”, they said. “They all illustrate that our own destructive behaviour towards nature is endangering our own health – a stark reality we’ve been collectively ignoring for decades.

“Worryingly, while Covid-19 has given us yet another reason to protect and preserve nature, we have seen the reverse take place. From the Greater Mekong, to the Amazon and Madagascar, alarming reports have emerged of increased poaching, illegal logging and forest fires, while many countries are engaging in hasty environmental rollbacks and cuts in funding for conservation. This all comes at a time when we need it most.

The WWF report said 60-70% of the new diseases that have emerged in humans since 1990 came from wildlife. Over the same period, 178m hectares of forest have been cleared, equivalent to more than seven times the area of the UK.
[/size]
https://youtu.be/fy_xAz-leGM
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2020, 12:42:45 AM
Lesson in leadership.

New York governor's final coronavirus briefing marks end of '111 days of hell'
For 111 consecutive days, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo sat before PowerPoint slides and graphs of Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations in the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in America. On Friday, he delivered his final briefing of the crisis.
Quote
"Today, we have done a full 180, from worst to first," he said. "We are controlling the virus better than any state in the country and any nation on the globe."

An average of 25 people per day died in New York this week, he said. The number of people hospitalized with the virus was 1,284, the lowest number of the outbreak. ...
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/19/us/andrew-cuomo-final-coronavirus-briefing/index.html
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 14, 2020, 01:14:43 PM
"what does not kill you makes you stronger"-phrase is starting to get some testing with this disease, as some cases seem to continue long after the initial fever. Are these cases future examples of a virus inducing autoimmune diseases or how can these be explained?

Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: gerontocrat on July 14, 2020, 10:14:11 PM
"what does not kill you makes you stronger"-phrase is starting to get some testing with this disease, as some cases seem to continue long after the initial fever. Are these cases future examples of a virus inducing autoimmune diseases or how can these be explained?

That phrase is a heap of crap.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: jens on July 16, 2020, 05:27:02 PM
Lessons from Covid-19 in my view have been the following:

* ecological crisis - from which corona ultimately derives from - has firmly hit the entire industrial civilization and nobody can say with a straight face any more that global problems don't affect them. Well, theoretically of course they *could* say, but deep down they would know it's not true.

* the era of uncertainty has been properly kick-started. A year ago nobody would have predicted covid-19, but here we are. Let's see, what will be happening a year from now onwards, etc. There won't be a "rest" for humanity any more. Just more and more problems keep coming with each passing year to deal with.

* fragmentation of the world has sped up. This has been a "test" or "warm-up" of countries locking themselves in, going into isolation, etc. We will see more and more of each country protecting themselves due to mounting global problems, with international order gradually breaking down.

* I don't think we have seen full economic effects yet as they keep mounting, but the gradual process of dismantling the global industrial civilization has started.

* as far as humans are concerned, they are hopeless as ever in grasping the implications of the situation, so nothing to see there. The majority of population think that "soon we will go back to normal and from there onwards it would be good life again". Well, they will be repeating the same thing after every climate and ecological problem we face literally till death.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sebastian Jones on July 16, 2020, 06:07:47 PM
Lessons from Covid-19 in my view have been the following:

* ecological crisis - from which corona ultimately derives from - has firmly hit the entire industrial civilization and nobody can say with a straight face any more that global problems don't affect them. Well, theoretically of course they *could* say, but deep down they would know it's not true.
TRUE

* the era of uncertainty has been properly kick-started. A year ago nobody would have predicted covid-19, but here we are. Let's see, what will be happening a year from now onwards, etc. There won't be a "rest" for humanity any more. Just more and more problems keep coming with each passing year to deal with.
NOT TRUE- Johns Hopkins led three major pandemic preparation scenarios. They were so prescient that some think this pandemic is a conspiracy...

* fragmentation of the world has sped up. This has been a "test" or "warm-up" of countries locking themselves in, going into isolation, etc. We will see more and more of each country protecting themselves due to mounting global problems, with international order gradually breaking down.
TRUE

* I don't think we have seen full economic effects yet as they keep mounting, but the gradual process of dismantling the global industrial civilization has started.
TRUE The pandemic has exposed the fragility of the just-in-time global economic model.

* as far as humans are concerned, they are hopeless as ever in grasping the implications of the situation, so nothing to see there. The majority of population think that "soon we will go back to normal and from there onwards it would be good life again". Well, they will be repeating the same thing after every climate and ecological problem we face literally till death.
PARTLY TRUE.  Many people- here for example- are fully aware that the world has changed.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: jens on July 16, 2020, 07:34:52 PM

* the era of uncertainty has been properly kick-started. A year ago nobody would have predicted covid-19, but here we are. Let's see, what will be happening a year from now onwards, etc. There won't be a "rest" for humanity any more. Just more and more problems keep coming with each passing year to deal with.
NOT TRUE- Johns Hopkins led three major pandemic preparation scenarios. They were so prescient that some think this pandemic is a conspiracy...


* as far as humans are concerned, they are hopeless as ever in grasping the implications of the situation, so nothing to see there. The majority of population think that "soon we will go back to normal and from there onwards it would be good life again". Well, they will be repeating the same thing after every climate and ecological problem we face literally till death.
PARTLY TRUE.  Many people- here for example- are fully aware that the world has changed.

Fair enough about the first point. I meant more in the sense of "general population". In mainstream the main critical prediction talked during 2019 with regards to 2020 was that "probably we would enter economic recession." But that was roughly it and fairly vague.

Even then it's probably very hard to predict what exactly is going to happen and when exactly even when you have various scenarios at hand. For example what would 2021, or 2022 look like?

About the second point, yes, people on this forum logically would be clearly above average in terms of awareness about the world situation. However, in everyday life in other spheres I have encountered plenty of what can be called "normalcy bias".
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 12, 2020, 02:06:12 AM
Here's another insightful piece (https://consentfactory.org/2020/08/09/invasion-of-the-new-normals/) by CJ Hopkins on how nothing is being learned from the Corona-crisis, and that the disproportionate reaction to it is leading the world straight into totalitarianism. The links can be found on the ConsentFactory website (https://consentfactory.org/), and the bolded bits are by me:

Quote
(https://consentfactory.files.wordpress.com/2020/08/body-snatchers-scream.png)

Invasion of the New Normals

They’re here! No, not the pod people from Invasion of the Body Snatchers. We’re not being colonized by giant alien fruit. I’m afraid it is a little more serious than that. People’s minds are being taken over by a much more destructive and less otherworldly force … a force that transforms them overnight into aggressively paranoid, order-following, propaganda-parroting totalitarians.

You know the people I’m talking about. Some of them are probably your friends and family, people you have known for years, and who had always seemed completely rational, but who are now convinced that we need to radically alter the fabric of human society to protect ourselves from a virus that causes mild to moderate flu-like symptoms (or absolutely no symptoms at all) in over 95% of those infected, and that over 99.6% survive, which, it goes without saying, is totally insane.

I’ve been calling them “corona-totalitarians,” but I’m going to call them the “New Normals” from now on, as that more accurately evokes the pathologized-totalitarian ideology they are systematically spreading. At this point, I think it is important to do that, because, clearly, their ideological program has nothing to do with any actual virus, or any other actual public health threat. As is glaringly obvious to anyone whose mind has not been taken over yet, the “apocalyptic coronavirus pandemic” was always just a Trojan horse, a means of introducing the “New Normal,” which they’ve been doing since the very beginning.

The official propaganda started in March, and it reached full intensity in early April. Suddenly, references to the “New Normal” were everywhere, not only in the leading corporate media (e.g., CNN, NPR, CNBC, The New York Times, The Guardian, The Atlantic, Forbes, et al.), the IMF and the World Bank Group, the WEF, UN, WHO, CDC (and the list goes on), but also on the blogs of athletic organizations, global management consulting firms, charter school websites, and random YouTube videos.

The slogan has been relentlessly repeated (in a textbook totalitarian “big lie” fashion) for going on the past six months. We have heard it repeated so many times that many of us have forgotten how insane it is, the idea that the fundamental structure of society needs to be drastically and irrevocably altered on account of a virus that poses no threat to the vast majority of the human species.

And, make no mistake, that is exactly what the “New Normal” movement intends to do. “New Normalism” is a classic totalitarian movement (albeit with a pathological twist), and it is the goal of every totalitarian movement to radically, utterly transform society, to remake the world in its monstrous image.

That is what totalitarianism is, this desire to establish complete control over everything and everyone, every thought, emotion, and human interaction. The character of its ideology changes (i.e., Nazism, Stalinism, Maoism, etc.), but this desire for complete control over people, over society, and ultimately life itself, is the essence of totalitarianism … and what has taken over the minds of the New Normals.

In the New Normal society they want to establish, as in every totalitarian society, fear and conformity will be pervasive. Their ideology is a pathologized ideology (as opposed to, say, the racialized ideology of the Nazis), so its symbology will be pathological. Fear of disease, infection, and death, and obsessive attention to matters of health will dominate every aspect of life. Paranoid propaganda and ideological conditioning will be ubiquitous and constant.

Everyone will be forced to wear medical masks to maintain a constant level of fear and an omnipresent atmosphere of sickness and death, as if the world were one big infectious disease ward. Everyone will wear these masks at all times, at work, at home, in their cars, everywhere. Anyone who fails or refuses to do so will be deemed “a threat to public health,” and beaten and arrested by the police or the military, or swarmed by mobs of New Normal vigilantes.

Cities, regions, and entire countries will be subjected to random police-state lockdowns, which will be justified by the threat of “infection.” People will be confined to their homes for up to 23-hours a day, and allowed out only for “essential reasons.” Police and soldiers will patrol the streets, stopping people, checking their papers, and beating and arresting anyone out in public without the proper documents, or walking or standing too close to other people, like they are doing in Melbourne, Australia, currently.

The threat of “infection” will be used to justify increasingly insane and authoritarian edicts, compulsory demonstration-of-fealty rituals, and eventually the elimination of all forms of dissent. Just as the Nazis believed they were waging a war against the “subhuman races,” the New Normals will be waging a war on “disease,” and on anyone who “endangers the public health” by challenging their ideological narrative. Like every other totalitarian movement, in the end, they will do whatever is necessary to purify society of “degenerate influences” (i.e., anyone who questions or disagrees with them, or who refuses to obey their every command). They are already aggressively censoring the Internet and banning their opponents’ political protests, and political leaders and the corporate media are systematically stigmatizing those of us who dare to challenge their official narrative as “extremists,” “Nazis,” “conspiracy theorists,” “covidiots,” “coronavirus deniers,” “anti-vaxxers,” and “esoteric” freaks. One German official even went so far as to demand that dissidents be deported … presumably on trains to somewhere in the East.

Despite this increasing totalitarianization and pathologization of virtually everything, the New Normals will carry on with their lives as if everything were … well, completely normal. They will go out to restaurants and the movies in their masks. They will work, eat, and sleep in their masks. Families will go on holiday in their masks, or in their “Personal Protective Upper-Body Bubble-Wear.” They will arrive at the airport eight hours early, stand in their little color-coded boxes, and then follow the arrows on the floor to the “health officials” in the hazmat suits, who will take their temperature through their foreheads and shove ten-inch swabs into their sinus cavities. Parents who wish to forego this experience will have the option to preventatively vaccinate themselves and their children with the latest experimental vaccine (after signing a liability waiver, of course) within a week or so before their flights, and then present the officials with proof of vaccination (and of their compliance with various other “health guidelines”) on their digital Identity and Public Health Passports, or subdermal biometric chips.

Children, as always, will suffer the worst of it. They will be terrorized and confused from the moment they are born, by their parents, their teachers, and by the society at large. They will be subjected to ideological conditioning and paranoid behavioral modification at every stage of their socialization … with fanciful reusable corporate plague masks branded with loveable cartoon characters, paranoia-inducing picture books for toddlers, and paranoid “social distancing” rituals, among other forms of psychological torture. This conditioning (or torture) will take place at home, as there will be no more schools, or rather, no public schools. The children of the wealthy will attend private schools, where they can be cost-effectively “socially-distanced.” Working class children will sit at home, alone, staring into screens, wearing their masks, their hyperactivity and anxiety disorders stabilized with anti-depressant medications.

And so on … I think you get the picture. I hope so, because I don’t have the heart to go on.

I pray this glimpse into the New Normal future has terrified and angered you enough to rise up against it before it is too late. This isn’t a joke, folks. The New Normals are serious. If you cannot see where their movement is headed, you do not understand totalitarianism. Once it starts, and reaches this stage, it does not stop, not without a fight. It continues to its logical conclusion. The way that usually happens is, people tell themselves it isn’t happening, it can’t be happening, not to us. They tell themselves this as the totalitarian program is implemented, step by step, one seemingly harmless step at a time. They conform, because, at first, the stakes aren’t so high, and their conformity leads to more conformity, and the next thing they know they’re telling their grandchildren that they had no idea where the trains were going.

If you have made it through to the end of this essay, your mind hasn’t been taken over yet … the New Normals clicked off around paragraph 2. What that means is that it is your responsibility to speak up, and to do whatever else you can, to stop the New Normal future from becoming a reality. You will not be rewarded for it. You will be ridiculed and castigated for it. Your New Normal friends will hate you for it. Your New Normal family will forsake you for it. The New Normal police might arrest you for it. It is your responsibility to do it anyway … as, of course, it is also mine.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on August 12, 2020, 04:46:31 AM
Quote
We have heard it repeated so many times that many of us have forgotten how insane it is, the idea that the fundamental structure of society needs to be drastically and irrevocably altered on account of a virus that poses no threat to the vast majority of the human species.

Sorry Neven to pick this piece from the text but it stopped me for a moment to think.

Civilisation requires its " fundamental structure of society" "to be drastically and irrevocably altered" because of AGW/Biosphere collapse.
Not because of this virus!
This virus is nothing more than a consequence of our unaltered fundamental structure of society.

I hate to think that via mixed messages such as in the text you posted there's a possibility that virus-related doubts and fears will hinder the main process of mitigation and necessary fundamental change to the existential problem we face (0% survives).
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 12, 2020, 05:26:11 AM
Hopkins doesn't say that the fundamental structure of society does not need to be altered. He just says that it's insane to do it on account of this virus. I hope you notice that global capitalism doesn't think that's insane (otherwise it would get much less media attention, like AGW). The idea is to use this virus to alter society in a way that is more beneficial to global capitalism. That's why it's hyped 24/7 for more than 100 straight days (and counting), at the expense of everything else.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on August 12, 2020, 06:51:30 AM
Lesson from COVID-19:

The average contemporary human acts when something threatens her/him and/or loved ones' health and stability in the short term e.g. a pandemic with lots of awareness (Mitigation: physical distancing, hygiene, mask wearing).

The average contemporary human does not act when something in the long term will hurt them and their loved ones, especially if there is still debate and they have to actively search out the threat e.g. AGW (Mitigation: stop emitting GHG).

I can understand why the virus is 'hyped' and AGW isn't. I also understand your point but I'm having trouble seeing the clear signals you see in all the noise and turbulence of associated interests and media coverage motivation. I am not sure if it is possible to calibrate the measuring of the signals. There are many very insane and malign powerful 'operators' (vested interests etc) and insanity is a hard to grasp factor until you know all the motives of that group of people and the difference between the vested interests.

From your above post I interpret that there are different vested interests with different views and that the AGW-mitigation-required fundamental changes are not the changes that you think will happen, because of the 'hyped' pandemic and the virus-mitigation-changes that vested interests 'force' on us.
To blow up he difference: It is about working towards an enlightened society (AGW mitigation etc) OR an enslaved and deprived society (the changes you fear or see).

Sorry Neven, to have implied in my previous post that the text you quoted is your text. I'll try to be more careful.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: bluice on August 12, 2020, 07:43:30 AM
IMHO that article is a big steaming pile of horse shit.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: nanning on August 12, 2020, 08:20:45 AM
bluice, that is not a humble opinion and you don't bring any arguments.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 12, 2020, 09:51:29 AM
IMHO that article is a big steaming pile of horse shit.

In that case you are probably a New Normal.  ;D

I can't help but worry about the Brave New World aspect of this pandemic hype. I'm going to have to read that book again.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 12, 2020, 10:14:03 AM
Latour, in translation by Howles (i cannot find the original french yet): Economy as format

"It would certainly be a shame to lose too quickly all the benefit of what Covid-19 has revealed to be essential.  ... there is at least one thing that everyone has been able to grasp: something is wrong with the economy. First of all, of course, because it seems that it can be suspended in one fell swoop; it no longer has the appearance of an irreversible movement that can neither slow down, nor by any means stop, without risk of catastrophe. Next, because all those in lockdown have noticed that class relations, which were solemnly declared to have been abrogated, have become as visible as they were in the time of Dickens or Proudhon"

"we are now saying that something is wrong in the way the economy defines the world."

"in certain recent societies, a concerted work of formatting has tried (without ever completely succeeding) to reduce and simplify these relations, to extract from them certain types of passion, affect, know-how, technique and invention, and to ignore all the others."

"The doubt that has been introduced during this hiatus is too profound; it has insinuated itself too widely"

"By himself, nobody becomes a detached individual, able to calculate a self-serving agenda and to enter into competition with everyone else in search of profit. These highlighted words identify properties that truly exist in the world, but only because they were first extracted, maintained, connected and assured by the immense assistance of accounting tools, title deeds, business schools and scholarly algorithms. Homo oeconomicus is just like a strain of bacteria cultivated in a petri-dish: it exists, but there is nothing natural, native or spontaneous about him. Alleviate the conditions, and see how it is emancipated"

"If the experience of the pandemic has any meaning, it’s to reveal the speed with which the notion of productivity has come to depend on accounting tools. Yes, it’s true, you can’t calculate the productivity of teachers, nurses, housewives very accurately. What conclusion do we draw from this? That they are unproductive? That they deserve to be paid less and kept at the bottom of the ladder? Or that it doesn’t matter, because this is not the issue? Whatever name you give to their “production”, it is both indispensable and incalculable; well, let others grapple with this contradiction; it simply means that these activities belong to a type of action that is non-economizable. The realisation by everybody that this resistance to countability is of “no importance” casts doubt on all other operations of economization. This is where the economic grip on the conditions of life breaks away from what it describes"

"A hiatus of just two months is all it took to achieve what numerous studies by sociologists of markets and anthropologists of finance would never have achieved: a widely-shared realization that the economy holds in place only as long as the institution that performs it – and not a day longer."

"This is the turning-point; this is the doubt; this is the point of no return: not what and how to produce, but is “producing” a good way of connecting to the world?"

"we have ended up questioning the value and politics of life – what makes it possible, what sustains it, what makes it liveable and just."

"we began to see proliferate in full view the work of these “forgotten people” [petites gens], who we noticed, more and more every day, were indispensable – here was a return to the question of class relations, clearly racialized. There was also the return of hard geopolitical relations and of inequalities between countries, made visible (this has also been one of the enduring lessons) product by product, value chain by value chain, migration route by migration route. As a third stage, employment hierarchies have been shaken up: we began to notice a thousand qualities in less well-paid, less well-regarded jobs, the ones demanding care, attention and multiple precautions."

"even fathers working remotely noticed that to teach arithmetic to their children required a thousand qualities of patience and obstinacy, the importance of which they had never suspected."

"The formatting provided by economization, just as was the case for asepsis, had precisely as its goal to multiply preventative measures in order to limit the number of beings to be taken into account, in every sense of the word. It sought to prevent proliferation, to obtain pure cultures, to simplify the grounds for action, which was the only way to make microbes or humans knowable, calculable and manageable."

"Without this other crisis, the pandemic would probably have been addressed as a serious public health challenge, but not as an existential question: people in lockdown would have been cautious about infection, but would not have set about discussing whether it was really useful to produce aeroplanes, to continue cruising on giant ships that look like container vessels, or to expect Argentina to provide the soya required for Breton pigs. The new climactic regime, when superimposed upon the health crisis, casts such fundamental doubt upon the whole question of production that it took only two months of lockdown for the issue to be reinvigorated."

"If the health crisis has reminded us of the role of these forgotten jobs [petits métiers], if it has given new significance to the caring professions, if it made class relations more visible, it has also gradually reminded us of the importance of those other participants in our ways of life, first microbes, and then, one thing leading to another, all that is needed to maintain in good condition an economy we had hitherto supposed constituted the totality of experience and that would recover. Even the most obtuse reporter, who continues to contrast those who care about the climate with those who simply wish to “restock the fridge”, can no longer ignore the fact that there is nothing in the fridge that does not depend on the climate – not to mention the countless microorganisms associated with the fermentation of cheese, yoghurt and beer."

"[Graeber] the idea of the labour theory of value was self-evident in the nineteenth-century, before disappearing under the neoliberal barrage of the twentieth, a century that was so forgetful of the conditions of life"

"the world that is now appearing in the full light of day, absolutely refusing to accept the status of “mere resource” granted to it condescendingly by the standard definition of the economy and breaking through all the preventative measures that should have keep it distanced."

"Underneath the capitalists are the workers, and underneath the workers are living things!"

"where we thought we should have an Economic Recovery, instead we will probably have to learn to exit from the Economy, that simplified summary of forms of life."

Read the whole thing, and let me know if you find the original french, please.

www.bruno-latour.fr/sites/default/files/downloads/P-205-ECONOMISATION-AOC-GB_1.pdf

sidd
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: jens on August 12, 2020, 01:23:43 PM
The idea is to use this virus to alter society in a way that is more beneficial to global capitalism.

I don't see, how can a virus be beneficial to global capitalism. I mean consumption is going down, lockdowns mean businesses are going bankrupt, several industries (e.g tourism) are hit extremely hard. Virus can perhaps benefit certain sectors of economy (i.e IT, make everything more digital). But in general? World economy is already in deep recession. Also there are already uprisings and riots in the world due to poor economic situation and unemployment. I think everyone in power would rather prefer "business as usual growth" rather than this trouble.

I view the situation more as the global capitalism is trying to adapt to a bad situation. They know they are going to crash due to ecological crisis, so the totalitarian fascist phase is the last stage of capitalism to try to make a face everything is fine and the economic system could still keep going. But totalitarian system arrives because it is impossible to keep going in the old way. It's an adaptation, they aren't doing it voluntarily. If people can't keep consuming in the system, because the world is falling apart, they have to be kept forcefully there.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on August 12, 2020, 02:07:32 PM
Assume global warming is real and way worse than what politically correct government agencies can acknowledge.

Assume the powerful knows that unless there is drastic change, their riches will be worth nothing. Then you forget capitalism. Forget about democracy. Embrace autoritarianism.  Consolidate power and protect your position.

Trump was already working on that. Then the virus came along. It could have been contained as Ebola, Sars, Mers or H1N1, but why let a good pandemic go to waste.

This virus has some irresistible qualities for some:

1. It is very dangerous for the sick, but it is mild on the healthy.
2. It kills the old  but spares the young.
3. If allowed run through as if it was nothing it will cull society.


To those looking to reduce the world's population coronavirus would be perfect. In the mean time the chaos it causes can be used to gain and consolidate power. Can you think of a better voter suppresion scheme than an airborne virus?

That's why no mask, no test, virus is a hoax, it is just a flu, hydroxychloroquine. Continual sabotage of the fight against the virus.

The real power grab is from those telling you to get infected.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: wili on August 12, 2020, 05:53:06 PM
I wish to express (by and large) agreement with this part of what neven is saying (and which I copied with credit to him at another site...I hope he doesn't mind), and I am wondering how many people agree (generally) with this much of what he is saying:

Quote
...when you have a system that for decades makes people unhealthy and sick (for profit), to then prop them up with all kinds of medications (for profit), you basically have a house of cards that apparently tumbles down when a minor, novel virus comes along.

So, the question is: Is that virus the great culprit, or is it the house of cards?

If it's the former, do you solve that by trying to make the house of cards stronger (via even more meds/vaccines)? Or do you dismantle the house of cards and learn from this experience to make society more resilient to this kind of crisis, and changing the system so that people's health isn't compromised by profit?

I think everyone would agree that the answer is 'both', with emphasis on the latter.

As to the Hopkins piece, I disagree with bluic (whose absence I also mourn, though I often disagreed with his/her posts) in his characterization of it...I would look with yearning and desire at a steaming pile of horse shit, thinking about how nice it will be to work into my garden once it has composted a bit! :)

I think much about that piece is much more toxic. That kind of inflamed rhetoric is the kinds of things that are leading many people in the US (at least) to threaten the lives of public health officials and their families,  including close friends of mine. I hope he (and others) can join with me in condemning such attacks. And I hope we can discuss the potential threats to democracy that covid might pose without citing, distributing and promoting such inflammatory toxic waste.

We should always watch out for ways that we might be manipulated into willingly giving up our liberties, but wearing a face mask to prevent a disease spreading to others is not that, nor is attempting to maintain a reasonable distance between people in most (especially indoor) situations.

Health officials face death threats over coronavirus policies

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/06/24/health-official-threats
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 13, 2020, 12:16:35 AM
Quote
I think much about that piece is much more toxic. That kind of inflamed rhetoric is the kinds of things that are leading many people in the US (at least) to threaten the lives of public health officials and their families,  including close friends of mine.

You have a point, wili. Often, fighting totalitarianism too fanatically leads to the same end result: totalitarianism. You see it with people with an unhealthy focus on Trump (also known as TDS), without any regard to how Trump came about, how his election victory was a reaction (populism) to something (neoliberalism). But then the reaction to that is also not leading to anything good.

Quote
I hope he (and others) can join with me in condemning such attacks.

I can't speak for him, as I don't know him personally and discovered his writings only recently, but I think he would condemn it, while at the same time stressing that it's a reaction to something that leads to totalitarianism. It's not just the masks, but also this idea that the enemy is everywhere around you (which to me is Al Qaeda on steroids) and that the only way to fight this enemy is through mandatory vaccinations, vaccination passports, tracking apps etc. And that anyone who doesn't support this, is an insensitive, dumb person.

One of these days I will try to convey how I would like the presentation to shift (by media and politicians), and make an effort to evade polarizing pitfalls.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Archimid on August 13, 2020, 11:20:19 AM
Quote
You see it with people with an unhealthy focus on Trump

Trump is a mass murderer.

Climate change will end civilization.

All the evidence points at both of them being true but saying either of them makes one look deranged. Most people opt to be quiet about both. Some people welcome both.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: sidd on August 14, 2020, 02:37:29 AM
House and Senate on break in the USA: no relief deal, nuttn to see here

" there are few senators in the Capitol, and no negotiations or votes have been taking place. The House is out of session."

"The Senate appears likely to recess on Thursday for the remainder of the month. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/08/12/trump-coronavirus-relief-congress/

Amazing. I guess the proles can starve on the street until they done with their holiday. 

sidd
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: longwalks1 on August 17, 2020, 08:30:29 PM
Learned of a new way to destroy good data.   

https://www.bleedingheartland.com/2020/08/17/iowas-covid-19-website-has-backdated-some-cases-for-months/

Quote
state officials are aware of the problem and working on a fix.

The backdating means that publicly available numbers underestimate the positivity rate for COVID-19 tests conducted over the past two weeks, a key metric for measuring community spread.

Many people tracking Iowa’s COVID-19 numbers have noticed that case counts on the state’s website keep changing, even for dates in March or April. While some delay in recording cases might be understandable, there is no reason it would take weeks or months for data to reach the IDPH. Hospitals and clinics that conduct COVID-19 tests are required to report their positive and negative numbers to the state daily.

    I would like to know why new positive COVID cases were added to dates as far back as March over the last week. This has been a consistent occurrence since I started following the data.

Jones noted that state education and health officials will use 14-day positivity rates for counties “as one of the main factors” in determining whether it is safe for schools to continue to teach students on site.

Ramaekers replied to Jones on the morning of August 14. Full text of his email:

    Thank you for your question. As of this email the x-axis of the positive chart is the date first reported to IDPH. This is a system generated date that never changes once a case is made in our system. So if I tested negative in March and was reported to IDPH, I would have a ‘Reported to IDPH’ date of March. If I was tested again today and came back positive, my ‘Reported to IDPH’ date does not change and now suddenly I appear on the graph in March. We recognize this is a problem and have been working on logic to handle it. We are shifting to using the first positive lab collection date. This change could happen as early as today.

At this writing, nothing has changed.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 17, 2020, 09:35:04 PM
Please, post this in the regular COVID-thread.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: ajouis on August 18, 2020, 11:24:20 AM
It's not just the masks, but also this idea that the enemy is everywhere around you (which to me is Al Qaeda on steroids) and that the only way to fight this enemy is through mandatory vaccinations, vaccination passports, tracking apps etc. And that anyone who doesn't support this, is an insensitive, dumb person.

One of these days I will try to convey how I would like the presentation to shift (by media and politicians), and make an effort to evade polarizing pitfalls.
The problem is the hoarding of power by governments, it is sensible to have temporary measures in the face of unexpected catastrophe but there needs to be institutional resilience to revert back to normal once it’s over. New Zealand is probably the best example of that, while China is almost the opposite, using routine powers (to them) to impose strict measures
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 19, 2020, 11:35:53 PM
The forcing that our unfettered capitalism (under the neolib elites) is placing upon both Society & the Virus might lead to us finally freeing ourselves from that yolk (due to the unnecessary losses we are suffering..... so their stocks/shares don't?) and so may have a chance at the scale of changes needed (across our World?) to best mitigate against both AGW and the Novel Virus?

Hope springs eternal eh?

Indeed, but there are few signs of people connecting the dots, especially in mainstream media. Actually, the virus is used to reinforce BAU. For instance, it has been used as an instrument, possibly decisive, in the war on populism.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 19, 2020, 11:41:47 PM
The problem is the hoarding of power by governments, it is sensible to have temporary measures in the face of unexpected catastrophe but there needs to be institutional resilience to revert back to normal once it’s over.

Absolutely, and I'd like to add that it is bad enough when governments abuse crises to hoard power for themselves. It's even worse when they do so to increase corporatism (another word for fascism), which is a means of more efficiently increasing concentrated wealth.

Examples abound already, which is one of the reasons I agitate so vehemently against the hyping of the virus by mainstream media (whilst not offering any analysis or connecting the dots). It is not done to save lives or protect people. It is done to push through all kinds of developments at a faster rate than would otherwise have been possible. Things like wealth transer, mass surveilance, overmedicalisation, curbing civil unrest, etc...
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 20, 2020, 11:01:20 AM
Jens, apologies for not replying to this earlier. You raise some good points.

The idea is to use this virus to alter society in a way that is more beneficial to global capitalism.

I don't see, how can a virus be beneficial to global capitalism. I mean consumption is going down, lockdowns mean businesses are going bankrupt, several industries (e.g tourism) are hit extremely hard. Virus can perhaps benefit certain sectors of economy (i.e IT, make everything more digital). But in general? World economy is already in deep recession. Also there are already uprisings and riots in the world due to poor economic situation and unemployment. I think everyone in power would rather prefer "business as usual growth" rather than this trouble.

You touch upon something that I had forgotten to mention, another reason why this virus is abused by the system, and thus disproportionately hyped up: to use it as an excuse for the global recession that was coming anyway due to basically no changes having been implemented since the big crash of 2008.

My contention is that the system is geared towards one thing only: the increase and further concentration of concentrated wealth. "Everyone in power" is premised on the fallacy (IMO) that people are in power. This idea rests on the belief that that human beings are in control of their destiny. This is partially true, but there are entities/phenomena/powers that play a much larger role, especially when it comes to large communities.

Concentrated wealth is such an entity, and it's the one in power. There are pockets of concentrated wealth that are magnetically attracted to each other and try to absorb one another, because concentrated power wants one thing only and that is to become bigger. Mind you, it is not some intelligent, rational or moral being. It's a monster that wants to grow bigger, even if in the long run it destroys itself (which it always ends up doing).

So, when I said 'the idea is to use this virus to alter society in a way that is more beneficial to global capitalism', I actually meant 'beneficial to concentrated wealth'. Global capitalism is what has arisen out of this need for eternal growth, as this is the most efficient way to achieve it.

Quote
I view the situation more as the global capitalism is trying to adapt to a bad situation. They know they are going to crash due to ecological crisis, so the totalitarian fascist phase is the last stage of capitalism to try to make a face everything is fine and the economic system could still keep going. But totalitarian system arrives because it is impossible to keep going in the old way. It's an adaptation, they aren't doing it voluntarily. If people can't keep consuming in the system, because the world is falling apart, they have to be kept forcefully there.

That's exactly right, I fully agree. It was interesting to see how the importance of the virus was downplayed at first by politicians - key servants of concentrated wealth - because their thinking was that BAU must be maintained at all costs to feed their master. As you rightly say, this is not possible, and so it took a while for the likes of Boris Johnson to understand which way the wind was blowing. That's when the pendulum swung to the other extreme and COVID-19 became the centre of attention unlike any other event since WW2.

That's because crises are always used to push agendas. Here's a list of things that the abuse of SARS-CoV-2 is meant to achieve through the manipulation of people's genuine fear of death:

1) A massive transfer of wealth, as evidenced by US bail-outs, where both highly profitable and insolvent industries received billions of taxpayer dollars in record time, whereas Congress goes on a holiday when a homelessness pandemic needs to averted.
2) Winning the War on Populism (https://consentfactory.org/2020/04/13/brave-new-normal/). Just like terms like 'socialism' and 'conspiracy theory', the word 'populism' has a pejorative connotation attached to it. This didn't happen by itself, as explained in this interesting interview (https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/07/thomas-frank-populism-is-not-mob-rule.html) with Thomas Frank (who has just published a book about it called The People, No). Anybody criticizing the state's COVID stance and policies, is essentially a populist.
3) A major distraction from the failings of neoliberalism. As said above: SARS-CoV-2 is used as an excuse for the global recession that was coming anyway due to basically no changes having been implemented since the big crash of 2008. Everything is because of the virus.
4) Destroying SMBs, so that real estate can be bought on the cheap and entrepreneurs lose their independence and become wage slaves. Some parts of the economy get hurt, such as retail and the hotel/restaurant business, but they will be replaced with monopolies like Amazon. Instead of going out and buying things, people will have to order them online (cheaper anyway, right). At some point, cash will become obsolete.
5) Increasing control through massive surveillance, controlling people's movements, having the ability to break up protests and lock people up in their homes, under the pretense of 'public health'. Just as with terrorism in the 2000s, a state of constant fear of disease will be maintained to keep people docile and obedient.

I may expand this list (something about Big Pharma should be in it, of course). But one thing is clear to me: All of it is tied to the need for the endless growth and further concentration of concentrated wealth.

As things stand, nothing good will come out of the COVID hype. Its goal is not to save lives or protect people. It isn't meant to increase awareness of how the system caused the virus, helped it spread all around the world and maximized its impact through decades of health degeneration. The lessons that are pushed are 'populism is bad', 'only vaccines can save us', 'billionnaires are wonderful philanthropists' and 'more globalist neoliberalism is the solution to all our woes'.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: sidd on August 20, 2020, 11:18:01 PM
Wolf at wofstreet on the Fed making the rich richer:

"Between mid-March and mid-May, during the lockdowns, the wealth of America’s 600-plus billionaires ballooned by $434 billion"

"that boom in the stock market, the bond market, and other financial markets since mid-March happened because the Fed threw about $3 trillion at them in a short time, with the specific purpose of raising asset prices and making those folks whole so that they don’t have any skin in this pandemic."

" Powell admitted that the Fed’s nearly $3 trillion in asset purchases caused asset prices to increase, he said the goal was to “restore functioning markets,” which means markets where prices are rising, and markets where price discovery is not allowed to happen, and markets were investors are spared any losses."

"The federal government sent out stimulus checks to nearly everyone, and it sent out extra unemployment benefits of $600 a week, and for the first time ever, it provided unemployment insurance for gig workers. Hundreds of billions of dollars went to these people, and this money was highly welcome."

"And then what did these people do with this money? Of course, they spent it. That was the purpose. And they spent it at Amazon, and they spent it at Walmart, and they bought computer equipment with it to get online from home, and they spent it on groceries. And they paid rent and made mortgage payments. And this money was recycled and ended up in the pockets of the rich, from Bezos to landlords."

"The poor lost their work and got poorer, the rich got richer and the high-income earners kept their jobs, and their wealth was bailed out by the Fed."

"This system has become socialism for the rich, socializing the losses to the rest of the people, and concentrating the gains – huge gains even during the pandemic – with a relatively small number of people. This is not the way to have a thriving economy. This is a way to run an economy into the ground."

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/19/the-fed-made-sure-the-rich-got-richer-during-the-pandemic-why-thats-bad-for-the-economy/

sidd
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Gray-Wolf on August 21, 2020, 12:10:59 AM


Indeed, but there are few signs of people connecting the dots, especially in mainstream media. Actually, the virus is used to reinforce BAU. For instance, it has been used as an instrument, possibly decisive, in the war on populism.

Oh Neven!

We dare not think ourselves 'Mainstream' can we?

I tell my kids (over so many 'human traits'?) that we are ALL on a scale from 1 to 100 percent?

We must therefore assume 1/3 of the population (for whatever reason?) are more gullible than the 2/3rds of the population above them (in their ability of not being 'Gullible'?) and so are 'easily lead/misinformed/blanked out from ever learning of things.....

Then, within that 2/3rds above the gullible some will actively be part of the horrors driving our world....and a good portion tied in so close with 'Family Life' that they 'self isolate' from the reality they should be baulking?

The likes of you (and your efforts, esp. since 07'?) is aiding folk in finding 'the dots' to join together!

Keep Well Neven

Keep you and yours Safe!

Ian.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on August 21, 2020, 12:14:23 AM
Thanks, Ian. Same to you.
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2020, 03:06:19 PM
Whatever Happened To ... The Instant Hospitals Built In Wuhan For COVID-19 Patients?
Quote
Huoshenshan and Leishenshan were among 40 hospitals in Wuhan designated for serious and critical care COVID-19 patients. Sixteen other makeshift hospitals were set up in converted gyms, convention and exhibition centers to isolate and treat mild cases, so those patients [didn’t] infect their families.

The vigorous efforts seem to have worked, because just a month later, on March 10, Chinese president Xi Jinping declared that the disease had been "basically curbed" in Wuhan and its province, Hubei. That day, the 16 makeshift hospitals were all shut down.

Huoshenshan and Leishenshan continued operating for another month, after which they sent their final batch of patients to regular hospitals and were officially sealed off and "retired" on April 15. According to state media, Leishenshan ended up treating a total of 2,011 patients over the two months it was operational. Government officials say there are no plans to demolish the hospitals yet, and they can be "reactivated at any time" if a second wave of infections hits. ...
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/09/10/909688913/whatever-happened-to-the-instant-hospitals-built-in-wuhan-for-covid-19-patients
Title: Re: Lessons from COVID-19
Post by: Neven on October 05, 2020, 03:22:28 PM
Lesson learned: non-extraordinary viruses can be used to shut down peaceful protests that raise awareness of reality as it really is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vUUym5b7fC4&feature=emb_logo