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Off-topic => The politics => Topic started by: Phoenix on June 12, 2020, 11:09:35 PM

Title: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 12, 2020, 11:09:35 PM
According to polls, Biden is in the drivers seat to become the 46th POTUS w/ less than 5 months until the election.

Seems like a good time to start covering his campaign and thinking about what a Biden presidency might mean for America and the world.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden

Much deserved attention has been given to Biden's choice for VP, a slot which he has promised to give to a woman. This pick is especially important as the probability of this person needing to take the reins before the next election is higher than usual.

Here's an article on a short list of 10 VP possibilities

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/biden-kamala-harris-keisha-lance-bottoms-val-demings/index.html
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 12, 2020, 11:54:54 PM
Interesting list.  There are some on that list that I would not have placed there and others who I would have thought should not just be on the list, but high on the list.  But what do I know.  My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 12, 2020, 11:55:39 PM
A top issue for ASIF followers is AGW and Biden's climate policy will be closely followed. It is perhaps the most important policy on multiple fronts.

1) It's a critical issue to motivate young supporters to turn out and vote for Biden and other Democrats in November. It's a politically winning issue for Democrats.

2) Green infrastructure spending holds promise as an economic stimulus in the wake of the jobs meltdown

3) AGW is an existential threat to human civilization and geopolitical stability.

Biden's campaign has formed six task forces with the cooperation of Bernie Sanders on a variety of topics which seek the input of both neoliberal and progressive voices on policy alternatives. One of these task forces is dedicated to climate policy and has eight members, including three from the Sanders camp which is headlined by rising progress star Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The neoliberal contingent is headed by former Sec State John Kerry.

Some articles on Biden and climate policy.

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/28/21265416/joe-biden-climate-change-democrats-young-voters

https://www.eenews.net/stories/1063250661

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13052020/biden-ocasio-cortez-kerry-climate-task-force

https://www.axios.com/joe-biden-climate-change-2020-poll
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 13, 2020, 12:49:20 AM
In normal election years, I might agree with your list.  However, this is not a "normal" election year.  I envision three issues topping the campaign; coronavirus, racial relations, and restarting the economy.  Sadly, I do not believe AGW will make the podium during the debates, except possibly to accomplish your #2 bullet. 

I believe that young voters are more concerned with their schooling, in wake of the virus, and the loss of potential jobs and internships in the future. 

While it is certainly an issue for the future, placing too much emphasis on this election cycle could be political suicide for the Democratic party.  The last thing the party wants is to be viewed as out of touch with the wants of the people.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 12:50:52 AM
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.

Klobuchar's chances took a huge dive with the George Floyd situation. She was a Minneapolis prosecutor and had a poor record when it came to going after crimes committed by police including a case involving Derek Chauvin, Floyd's killer. Klobuchar's appeal was more to party insiders and donors who want a demonstrated centrist neoliberal in the #2 spot. She was not at all appealing to young voters and minorities.

Politically, there is a lot of pressure for Biden to pick a black VP as that was the demographic that provided the boost in S. Carolina and Super Tuesday states to get him the nomination.

Harris checks a lot of identity boxes and is also seen by insiders as safely centrist enough. Not a huge draw to non-identity voters, but this election is all about Trump. People are going to show up to vote based upon his presence on the ballot. Harris seems like a dull safe pick at the moment.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 13, 2020, 01:26:16 AM
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.  I know she was a long shot, but I think we has a real shot at a spot on the ticket.  I do not believe that he will choose Harris, as she is a liability when it comes to criminal justice.

Klobuchar's chances took a huge dive with the George Floyd situation. She was a Minneapolis prosecutor and had a poor record when it came to going after crimes committed by police including a case involving Derek Chauvin, Floyd's killer. Klobuchar's appeal was more to party insiders and donors who want a demonstrated centrist neoliberal in the #2 spot. She was not at all appealing to young voters and minorities.

Politically, there is a lot of pressure for Biden to pick a black VP as that was the demographic that provided the boost in S. Carolina and Super Tuesday states to get him the nomination.

Harris checks a lot of identity boxes and is also seen by insiders as safely centrist enough. Not a huge draw to non-identity voters, but this election is all about Trump. People are going to show up to vote based upon his presence on the ballot. Harris seems like a dull safe pick at the moment.

I think this is a cogent analysis.  And I think the CNN article is thoughtful as well (surprisingly).  In terms of maximizing chance of winning, I might favor Grisham at this point.  But in terms of governing after the election, I might favor Susan Rice.  Certainly, the traditional US allies around the world would be reassured by the choice of a diplomat, and she seems very smart.  I'd have some confidence in her competence to govern when Biden retires (which may, and perhaps should, happen in less than 4 years).
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 01:58:06 AM
I might favor Susan Rice.  Certainly, the traditional US allies around the world would be reassured by the choice of a diplomat, and she seems very smart.  I'd have some confidence in her competence to govern when Biden retires (which may, and perhaps should, happen in less than 4 years).

The US is coming apart at the seams internally. As an American, I'm not looking for a VP who appeals as a diplomat to allies. I'm looking for someone who can speak to the folks at home and solve domestic issues. Let Rice be Sec State.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: blumenkraft on June 13, 2020, 08:55:16 AM
My choice for the nomination was Amy Klobuchar.

The woman responsible for the US burning today.

If she did her job, George Floyd would be alive today.

She is done!
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: blumenkraft on June 13, 2020, 08:58:36 AM

Some articles on Biden and climate policy.

Biden's climate policy: Do what the donors want.

If you want climate action, make Greenpeace donate to him.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 12:25:42 PM

Biden's climate policy: Do what the donors want.


The tide is turning and even Biden's donors are not monolithic in their objection to climate legislation. Not all rich people are stupid.

Bernie lost the election, but the undeniable progression of AGW, economic turmoil and an increasingly rowdy public will make green infrastructure spending hard to say no to.

Biden is a weather vane. In addition to pleasing the fat cats, he also wants to be popular. I understand the skepticism, but there is also some cause for optimism.



Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: blumenkraft on June 13, 2020, 12:35:50 PM
Not all rich people are stupid.

All CEOs have to maximize profits in the given framework. Stupidity is not the reason for corporations doing stupid things like lobbying for environmentally harmful legislation.

It needs the courage to challenge the whole framework or else we have to rely on 'the market' to solve things.

Quote
I understand the skepticism, but there is also some cause for optimism.

Skepticism or realism? IDK.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 01:08:31 PM
If we were to turn back the clock to 1930, there would have been good reason to doubt that FDR's agenda would ever come to pass. The fat cats were not for it.

History teaches us that there are moments when then pain of the masses overrides the prevailing paradigm. The interests of the common people are not infinitely compressible. We are seeing the pain break out on the streets of the US and some of the oligarchs are taking note.

I have no faith in the benevolence of the oligarchs. I have faith in the survival instinct to rise in everyone.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 13, 2020, 02:39:08 PM
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 03:22:52 PM
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?

There is almost no space between Biden's history and mainstream GOP thinking on policing. Biden was the Senator most responsible for the push to put an additional 100k police on the street in the '90's with concentration in minority areas.

Trump has isolated himself from even people like McConnell with his blatant racism and reaction to the Floyd killing. Biden wins this contrast easy and Trump's handling of Covid is also pretty terrible in the minds of old voters who might die from it.

Trump is beating himself, Biden just has to show up.

The last election was not about border security IMO. It came down to a very close vote in the rust belt states of PA, WI and MI which enabled Trump to win the electoral college despite Clinton having three million more votes. It was a rejection of Clinton as personally unlikeable  or non-inspiring and establishment neoliberal polices which outsourced rust belt jobs overseas. Trump was inspiring to evangelicals who came out in big numbers for him to pull it out. Being an outsider, he could rep himself as an agent of change in 2016. Now he has a record.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 13, 2020, 03:34:23 PM
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?

There is almost no space between Biden's history and mainstream GOP thinking on policing. Biden was the Senator most responsible for the push to put an additional 100k police on the street in the '90's with concentration in minority areas.

Trump has isolated himself from even people like McConnell with his blatant racism and reaction to the Floyd killing. Biden wins this contrast easy and Trump's handling of Covid is also pretty terrible in the minds of old voters who might die from it.

Trump is beating himself, Biden just has to show up.

The last election was not about border security IMO. It came down to a very close vote in the rust belt states of PA, WI and MI which enabled Trump to win the electoral college despite Clinton having three million more votes. It was a rejection of Clinton as personally unlikeable  or non-inspiring and establishment neoliberal polices which outsourced rust belt jobs overseas. Trump was inspiring to evangelicals who came out in big numbers for him to pull it out. Being an outsider, he could rep himself as an agent of change in 2016. Now he has a record.

I think you nailed it perfectly.  Biden is much more likeable than Clinton was, and just has to not falter.  Biden should win back the traditionally Democratic states of MI and PA, which should be enough.  WI is anyone's guess.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 13, 2020, 04:50:43 PM
It's the economy stupid!

If the stock market stays as high as it is now, Trump has a powerful message to sell. One week is an eternity in politics, and who's the best at dictating the message? Do you really think Biden will be able to talk about his policies? Do you think they can't do to him what they did to Clinton?

I completely agree with you, it's looking really bad for Trump right now, but do you really think people will remember this in November?

The only unknown is the pandemic. But what if the bastard is right, and Oxfort does come out with a vaccine before the election? Who'll win then? Trump will be seen as a genius...

And I always said that it will be a third party that will decide this election.


To be continued...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 06:01:46 PM
FG, I'm curious where you get the information that informs your opinion of what motivates the American voter?

You have mentioned that you watch MSNBC. Have you followed US politics for a long time?

Some of the ideas you mentioned don't seem to reflect a realistic appraisal of the electorate that I know and I live here and participate in political campaigns. I don't a potential stock market rally as influencing many votes and I don't see a vaccine being released before the election. If a vaccine were miraculously released, I don't see Trump getting the credit or being forgiven for mishandling the crisis so far. We see the country rejecting his overt racism and authoritarianism.

He was able to play a good con game in 2016 as a candidate with no political record. Now he has a record and an opponent who is not hated.

Trump is a grifter out for himself. He sold every decision to the highest bidder in the swamp and gave up on any policy agenda that went against the swamp. McConnell sets the legislative agenda which is basically to maintain status quo and Trump has been paid off to go along. He will get hammered in the election and probably make a challenge to Fox News somehow after the election to try and monetize his followers.

Look at the 2018 midterms. Trump has a gift for bringing people who don't like him to the polls.

Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 13, 2020, 06:30:12 PM
I've been following American and global politics for a long time now. It's what I do. American politics I started following closely since the Iraq war after 9/11. But since the day Trump announced his candidacy - on the 15th of June, 2015 I think it was - I haven't turned it off. I have MSNBC on almost 24/7 because this is historic. I have made many prediction that came through, and I understand Trump completely, because he and I have the same Narcissistic Personality Disorder. So I understand how Trump reasons. Did you know he actually tried to lose the election? He never wanted to become president. He just wanted to increase the value of his name and start a media empire, which he still want to do! Don't think Trump will go away if he were to lose.

Some of the ideas you mentioned don't seem to reflect a realistic appraisal of the electorate that I know and I live here and participate in political campaigns.
I would advise you to get out of your bubble.

But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 13, 2020, 07:04:05 PM
I have MSNBC on almost 24/7.....I would advise you to get out of your bubble.


MSNBC is a bubble.

I have knocked doors, phone banked, text banked and engaged with supporters of all the other candidates online in reddit forums and facebook. I'm directly engaging with a representative cross section of the American public. Engaging with Trump supporters is very difficult for someone who wants to educate people about AGW.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 13, 2020, 10:01:41 PM
I have MSNBC on almost 24/7.....I would advise you to get out of your bubble.

MSNBC is a bubble.
MSNBC is the heart of the rich asholes in charge. You can learn a lot from reading between the lines. I used to watch Fox News as well, but that became increasingly unbearable. Now I just watch the Five.

It's cool what you do. Keep doing it! I just want to understand the system so we can try to fix it...We need a complete overhaul...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 13, 2020, 10:31:20 PM
Quote
This pick is especially important as the probability of this person needing to take the reins before the next election is higher than usual.
Because of Biden's age? Is his health in question?
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 13, 2020, 10:31:57 PM
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 13, 2020, 10:39:17 PM
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.
With Trump's luck, he may make Covid a scapegoat...everything going wrong is because of the Chinese wet market.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 13, 2020, 10:46:36 PM
 
But don't get me wrong! I completely understand and agree with what you say. People are sick and tired of Trump. There is no way in hell that he can get reelected. I just don't rule it out yet. I won't make that mistake twice. Clinton was a sure win as well...

Hillary had a consistent 1-2 percent lead in the polls going in to the election.  For statistically-minded pollsters, that was enough to predict the outcome. Yes, if that's the kind of number we see at the end of October, your caution is merited.  But it's not looking like that right now.

We have 100,000 dead Americans from the pandemic right now.  Almost all because of a bungled Federal response.  We'll almost surely have 200,000 dead by November.  I can't imagine Trump recovering from this carnage.

Hillary had a double digit lead in June, but say it shrink towards the election.  It could happen to Biden also, but I think not.  Two factors that could help Trump are those mentioned; the stock market and a vaccine.  I think those that want to blame him or give him credit will do so regardless of what happens.  Never underestimate the opportunity for the incumbent to be presidential.  Obama’s response to hurricane sandy bolstered his re-election.  Carters response to the hostage crisis killed his.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 14, 2020, 01:56:30 AM
There is one thing that gives me hope though... Trump fucks up just about anything he tries to do. Last time he tried to lose, and he won. Now he's actually trying to win...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 14, 2020, 03:29:20 AM
Let's try to steer the conversation away from centering around Trump and try to make this thread center around developments relating to Biden and what his candidacy might mean for the American situation and the world.

I am interested in the dynamic taking place in his climate change task force where the tug of war is taking place between young people like AOC and the head of Sunrise Movement and Biden appointees John Kerry and Pelosi acolyte Kathy Castor.

Kerry has some credentials in the "baby steps" approach to addressing climate change including the Paris Accord which is woefully inadequate as a solution. He has spoken about goals related to carbon neutrality by 2050.

For me, the years that people talk about are a good indicator of their seriousness in effecting change. People who use the year 2030 when talking about goals understand that action must be taken now and convey the necessary sense of urgency. People talking about 2050 are signaling near-term tolerance for BAU.



Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 09:07:03 AM
This should be one of the better campaign ads of all time of behalf of Biden....in the words of current Trump backer Lindsay Graham.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/lindsey-graham-praises-joe-biden-in-what-might-be-the-best-campaign-ad-ever-according-to-harvard-prof-2020-06-14
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 12:46:00 PM
It is an awesome ad indeed. Just saw it on morning Joe. I'm curious if Lindsay is happy with it. I think he secretly is. Or maybe not even secretly? Maybe he approved it behind closed doors?

I also wonder how many repukes regret their impeachment vote now...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 01:08:44 PM
It is an awesome ad indeed. Just saw it on morning Joe. I'm curious if Lindsay is happy with it. I think he secretly is. Or maybe not even secretly? Maybe he approved it behind closed doors?

I also wonder how many repukes regret their impeachment vote now...

I think Senator Graham is not happy with it. His comments about Trump were made during the 2016 primary when the establishment wanted to stop Trump. After Trump won the nomination, Graham has become a big time ass kisser for Trump.

Trump is popular with GOP voters in S. Carolina and this ad with Graham praising Joe Biden complicates Graham's senate election this fall.

Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 01:40:10 PM
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 15, 2020, 01:52:33 PM
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...

Yes.  They opposed him in 2016, and oppose him still today.  They are reluctantly supporting his re-election because he is the party candidate. 
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 02:38:13 PM
Behind closed doors the establishment republicans hate Trump's guts. They love him for the judges, but truly hate him for what he's doing to their America...

FG, let's try to make an effort not to keep pivoting back to Trump as the central focus of this thread.

This is what the establishment (such as MSNBC) wants...for the awfulness of Trump to suck all the attention away from the awfulness of the establishment politicians like Biden and Graham. Let's keep the focus here on things relating to Biden.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 02:53:20 PM
You just posted a republican ad and started talking about Trump after I talked about Lindsay.  ???
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 03:13:45 PM
You just posted a republican ad and started talking about Trump after I talked about Lindsay.  ???

The ad is totally relevant to this thread because it shows Graham praising Biden. It doesn't matter who paid for the ad.

I tried to answer your question about whether Graham was likely to be secretly supporting this pro-Biden ad and I explained why I don't think that's the case.

Try to keep Biden or his potential appointees, allies or policies as the subject.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: blumenkraft on June 15, 2020, 04:49:58 PM
It will be hard to talk about the biden campaign without also talking about the bunker boi i guess.

However, please refrain from meta discussions. If you think a post is off-topic, report it to the moderators.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 05:52:05 PM
It will be hard to talk about the biden campaign without also talking about the bunker boi i guess.

However, please refrain from meta discussions. If you think a post is off-topic, report it to the moderators.

I'm not sure that the tendency for all political discussion to orbit around Trump is meta discussion. This seems to be the political objective of the entire US neoliberal media apparatus.

On a scale of 0-10, Trump is a 0. They want us to ignore that Biden is a 2 and any comparison to standards which are being established in other western democracies. We are systematically being brainwashed to focus on Trump's cartoonishly evil presence as a means of being bludgeoned into accepting a neoliberal shit sandwich.

Biden has been at the epicenter of neoliberal policy and his nomination was in large part due to the media brainwashing around fear of Trump.

Perhaps I should have left the word "campaign" out of the thread title ? Can you adjust that ?
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on June 15, 2020, 05:59:46 PM
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Phoenix on June 15, 2020, 06:24:40 PM
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.

Biden is the current favorite to become the next POTUS. A country with the world's largest military, GDP and until recently, the world's leader producer of fossil fuels. Also the country with the second highest carbon emissions globally and an indispensable part of any potential global agreement on emission reductions.

As the prospective chief executive, he and his potential administration are important to any outlook  for tackling AGW which is a topic of interest to this forum. I think it's worthwhile to begin accumulating information about what his administration might bring to the table. I'm content to let BL make the call.

If you think it's useless, no one is forcing you to pay attention to it.
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: blumenkraft on June 15, 2020, 06:52:07 PM
Perhaps I should have left the word "campaign" out of the thread title ? Can you adjust that ?

Done.

Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: The Walrus on June 15, 2020, 08:53:01 PM
I think this thread is useless. All this should be discussed in the 2020 Elections thread.

Biden is the current favorite to become the next POTUS. A country with the world's largest military, GDP and until recently, the world's leader producer of fossil fuels. Also the country with the second highest carbon emissions globally and an indispensable part of any potential global agreement on emission reductions.

As the prospective chief executive, he and his potential administration are important to any outlook  for tackling AGW which is a topic of interest to this forum. I think it's worthwhile to begin accumulating information about what his administration might bring to the table. I'm content to let BL make the call.

If you think it's useless, no one is forcing you to pay attention to it.

while it is certainly true Biden is currently the favorite, one must remember that Clinton was the favorite until 1:35 a.m. on morning after election day.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 16, 2020, 12:23:22 AM
Krystal and Sagaar review Biden's VP options. Susan Rice moving up the ranks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSNv6Ot1a0E
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 16, 2020, 11:00:06 AM
One thing that's very different vs. 2016 is that Hillary was just so damn unpopular. Joe doesn't have that problem.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/biden-far-less-unpopular-hillary-clinton-was-four-years-ago-n1231055

Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on June 16, 2020, 11:02:29 AM
PSA: Krystal and Sagaar (The Hill Rising) are right-winger with the mission to drive partisanship.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 16, 2020, 11:21:42 AM
PSA: Krystal and Sagaar (The Hill Rising) are right-winger with the mission to drive partisanship.

?????

Krystal is basically a Berniecrat.

She and Sagaar are trying to promote an agenda which unites the working class left and working class right.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on June 16, 2020, 11:44:34 AM
Try keeping it in your mind, Phoenix. You'll see it sooner or later.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 17, 2020, 06:08:08 PM
Reuters IPSOS poll gives Biden a 13 point lead. He's come along way since getting blown out out in Iowa and New Hampshire.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503103-biden-lead-over-trump-grows-to-13-points-poll

For reference, LBJ beat Goldwater by 22.6% in 1964.

A couple Cat 5's landfalls, a super duper heat wave and a robust second wave of Covid-19 could result in one of the epic blowouts in US electoral history.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on June 17, 2020, 06:19:17 PM
Reuters IPSOS poll gives Biden a 13 point lead. He's come along way since getting blown out out in Iowa and New Hampshire.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/503103-biden-lead-over-trump-grows-to-13-points-poll

For reference, LBJ beat Goldwater by 22.6% in 1964.

A couple Cat 5's landfalls, a super duper heat wave and a robust second wave of Covid-19 could result in one of the epic blowouts in US electoral history.

Wishful thinking does not win elections.  Fivethirtyeight did an analysis of every presidential re-election since 1984, and found that the economy is the most important factor, followed by approval rating.  While his approval rating is low (always has been), the economy has weather the Covid crisis thus far.  I do not envision any of your possibilities occurring before November.  Hence, I foresee another close election.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-reelection-may-hinge-on-the-economy-and-coronavirus/
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: sidd on June 18, 2020, 12:29:58 AM
The US stock market has weathered the impact, not the economy. There is a huge wave of evictions coming and a great amount of the food service/travel/hospitality industry will go out of business.

I deal with about a couple thousand food service businesses in midatlantic/midwest (or rather I did, before the pandemic). They tell me about half do not plan to reopen, another third are uncertain. The reaminder are struggling to stay afloat on delivery/takeout.

Commercial real estate has tanked, not just restaurant space, but office space can be also had for a song. Commercial realestate brokers are telling me that about half of the office rentals are behind on rent, and most  intend to cut their lease area by 50% or more. 

Residential real estate purchase/prices is holding up for now fuelled by low mortgage rates. I do not expect this to last since a great amount of present residential real estate demand is pulled forward from the future. But rents are uniformly down from coast to coast.
 
Not looking too good for trump reelection.

sidd
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on June 18, 2020, 04:08:49 PM
The US stock market has weathered the impact, not the economy. There is a huge wave of evictions coming and a great amount of the food service/travel/hospitality industry will go out of business.

I deal with about a couple thousand food service businesses in midatlantic/midwest (or rather I did, before the pandemic). They tell me about half do not plan to reopen, another third are uncertain. The reaminder are struggling to stay afloat on delivery/takeout.

Commercial real estate has tanked, not just restaurant space, but office space can be also had for a song. Commercial realestate brokers are telling me that about half of the office rentals are behind on rent, and most  intend to cut their lease area by 50% or more. 

Residential real estate purchase/prices is holding up for now fuelled by low mortgage rates. I do not expect this to last since a great amount of present residential real estate demand is pulled forward from the future. But rents are uniformly down from coast to coast.
 
Not looking too good for trump reelection.

sidd

Of course certain sectors have been and will continue to be hit harder than others.  The residential housing market has shown remarkable resilience and has increased in value during the pandemic.  While the food service industry has tanked, retail grocers have experienced increased sales.  It is still too early to claim that the economy is killing his reelection chances. 
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 18, 2020, 04:53:54 PM
So, what does Biden offer on the economy ?

First, Biden owes a political debt to the black community who are disproportionately represented in the bottom tier economically. If nothing is delivered for them, the Democrats are opening the door for more protests / uprising.   

Biden begins with a $1.7T green stimulus plan. One tenth of what Sanders proposed, but his opponent offers nothing.

Biden has moved toward the Buttigieg college plan. Basically, a lot of debt relief for people earning less than $125k /year.

Biden has proposed a huge increase in safety net by removing the cap on social security wages.

Biden's opponent had it going good with the economy until Covid came along. But the opponent is tethered to a party that is religiously committed to pushing wealth from public to private hands. Now that the situation calls for public investment, Biden's opponent is not a credible bearer of solutions to the current economic problems.

Biden is a tough person for the GOP to run against because he's basically a Republican with a Democratic label. Biden was against Roe v. Wade in 1973. He put the extra cops on the streets and he sucks up to big money interests and big military spending. He's basically Bob Dole. He's not like Hillary in his ability to motivate the other side to show up and vote against him.

This cycle has blowout written all over it.





Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on June 18, 2020, 06:21:19 PM
Phoenix,

I think your first and last statements are the most important.  Namely, the black community (which Hillary could not bring on board) and Bob Dole in that he is likeable (unlike Hillary again).  The middle has support among Democrats, but not so much with the Independents, who he needs to win over. 
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 18, 2020, 09:42:04 PM
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/xg8wya/trumps-poll-numbers-are-so-bad-the-gop-is-starting-to-panic-about-a-wipeout

“The environment really sucks for us right now. We’ve got a worldwide pandemic, the economy is slipping and now we have a race war tacked on,” warned one GOP strategist involved in multiple races. “If the election were held today, we’d be talking about a wipeout. We’d be in landslide territory.”

<removed tracking - BK>
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on June 19, 2020, 01:19:41 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/19/amy-klobuchar-rules-herself-out-as-possible-biden-running-mate

Klobuchar is out of the VP picture. Calls for a woman of color.

I'm not seeing a role for Klobuchar in a Biden Administration. She might have been qualified for Attorney General but her small connection to the cop who killed George Floyd is not appealing.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Freegrass on June 19, 2020, 06:38:42 PM
Write me down for Susan Rice as VP. She was just on MSNBC with Andrea Mitchell, and her body language tells me she'll be the one. She's ready for the job.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Phoenix on July 05, 2020, 09:59:59 PM
Kamala Harris' wikipedia page is getting extensive modification to remove unflattering content. A potential sign that she is the favorite in the veepstakes.

https://theintercept.com/2020/07/02/kamala-harris-wikipedia/



Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on July 31, 2020, 04:28:50 PM
The last presidential election was about border security. This election seems to be going towards domestic security. From "build that wall" to "save the police". And who'll win that fight do you think?
[/quot
Title: Re: Joe Biden Campaign
Post by: Freegrass on July 31, 2020, 04:34:55 PM
It's the economy stupid!

If the stock market stays as high as it is now, Trump has a powerful message to sell. One week is an eternity in politics, and who's the best at dictating the message? Do you really think Biden will be able to talk about his policies? Do you think they can't do to him what they did to Clinton?

I completely agree with you, it's looking really bad for Trump right now, but do you really think people will remember this in November?

The only unknown is the pandemic. But what if the bastard is right, and Oxfort does come out with a vaccine before the election? Who'll win then? Trump will be seen as a genius...

And I always said that it will be a third party that will decide this election.

To be continued...
Fauci was powerful for Trump at the hearing just now. Vaccine at the end of this year for all Americans.

TAKE THAT BIDEN!

Oh shit..
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Freegrass on August 11, 2020, 10:21:13 PM
Kamala Harris will be the VP.  :-\
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: wili on August 11, 2020, 10:40:51 PM
Any of the top candidates would have some kind of flaw. But yeah, picking KH in a post Floyd era is...a bit odd...

from her wiki page: "Harris oversaw more than 1900 convictions for marijuana possession, a higher rate than under her predecessor"

Most didn't go to prison, but these kinds of convictions tend to fall more heavily on Blacks. Don't know if that was true here, but it doesn't look great
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on August 12, 2020, 01:03:39 AM
Any of the top candidates would have some kind of flaw. But yeah, picking KH in a post Floyd era is...a bit odd...

from her wiki page: "Harris oversaw more than 1900 convictions for marijuana possession, a higher rate than under her predecessor"

Most didn't go to prison, but these kinds of convictions tend to fall more heavily on Blacks. Don't know if that was true here, but it doesn't look great

I tend to agree.  Not sure what she brings to the ticket.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 12, 2020, 04:10:05 AM
from her wiki page: "Harris oversaw more than 1900 convictions for marijuana possession, a higher rate than under her predecessor"
"Oversaw". I heard that before and it smelled fishy. Needs closer scrutiny.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on August 12, 2020, 02:26:25 PM
from her wiki page: "Harris oversaw more than 1900 convictions for marijuana possession, a higher rate than under her predecessor"
"Oversaw". I heard that before and it smelled fishy. Needs closer scrutiny.

Here is the closer scrutiny.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/09/11/kamala-harris-prosecuting-marijuana-cases/
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Freegrass on August 12, 2020, 03:45:12 PM
I tend to agree.  Not sure what she brings to the ticket.
Kamala is a prosecutor who needs to do what she does best; prosecute Trump like she did here, and keep repeating it.

https://youtu.be/cq0-Tth40SE
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on August 12, 2020, 04:06:45 PM
Oh America, whatcha doing for crying out loud? This ticket just became even more horrible than it was. Putting a cop into the VP position is unfortunate timing to say the least.

But there is a growing progressive opposition. Bring dem fight on!

US legal experts, can you primary a sitting president Harris in 4 years?
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 12, 2020, 04:22:27 PM
Always funny to find out you need donors to get elected to the judicial system in US.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 12, 2020, 04:50:36 PM
Oh America, whatcha doing for crying out loud? This ticket just became even more horrible than it was. Putting a cop into the VP position is unfortunate timing to say the least.

But there is a growing progressive opposition. Bring dem fight on!

US legal experts, can you primary a sitting president Harris in 4 years?

Of course.  Assuming Biden wins and only serves one term, we can expect Harris to be a candidate in 4 years.  Though she'd presumably have a leg up over other candidates at that time, she is more than likely to have Democratic candidates in competition.  If the Biden administration has scandals/failures, her nomination in four years would be far from assured.

I'm optimistic that we'll at least see reforms over the next four years that are roughly similar to the post-Watergate reforms.  In my mind, that's what's most crucial at the moment.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on August 12, 2020, 04:58:27 PM
I'm assuming Biden will not be president 4 years out, Steve.

Thanks for your answer. I'm also slightly optimistic. But really only a smidgeon... The DNC has to give. Something must be in for average Joe. Otherwise, there will be another strong Rep candidate.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Freegrass on August 12, 2020, 05:03:58 PM
Oh America, whatcha doing for crying out loud? This ticket just became even more horrible than it was. Putting a cop into the VP position is unfortunate timing to say the least.

But there is a growing progressive opposition. Bring dem fight on!

US legal experts, can you primary a sitting president Harris in 4 years?

Of course.  Assuming Biden wins and only serves one term, we can expect Harris to be a candidate in 4 years.  Though she'd presumably have a leg up over other candidates at that time, she is more than likely to have Democratic candidates in competition.  If the Biden administration has scandals/failures, her nomination in four years would be far from assured.

I'm optimistic that we'll at least see reforms over the next four years that are roughly similar to the post-Watergate reforms.  In my mind, that's what's most crucial at the moment.
It's all one big sham, but I love the game. If you take out ideology and favoritism, the whole thing becomes a very different beast. The greatest show on earth!  ;)

Quote
Impermanence, called anicca (Pāli) or anitya (Sanskrit) appears extensively in the Pali Canon as one of the essential doctrines of Buddhism. The doctrine asserts that all of conditioned existence, without exception, is "transient, evanescent, inconstant". All temporal things, whether material or mental, are compounded objects in a continuous change of condition, subject to decline and destruction. All physical and mental events are not metaphysically real. They are not constant or permanent; they come into being and dissolve
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on August 12, 2020, 05:21:16 PM
Oh America, whatcha doing for crying out loud? This ticket just became even more horrible than it was. Putting a cop into the VP position is unfortunate timing to say the least.

Yes.  I was surprised at this choice given al the backlash against the police recently.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: El Cid on August 12, 2020, 07:37:37 PM
So Joe Biden chose a VP and you say this might be a bad choice.

But come on!

Joe Biden. Really?

Biden vs Trump.

Are these really the two best people America can offer for voters? If that is so, the USA is doomed

(Last time it was Hillary vs Trump which was an even worse choice). What a shame
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: wili on August 13, 2020, 03:36:07 AM
Left wing rankled by choice of Harris for VP

"We might be looking at 12 years of neoliberal power at the top of the Democratic Party," one activist says.

Quote
...“The former vice president always has a major advantage so it’s definitely possible that we progressives might not have a real shot at the presidency for many years,” said an ex-senior aide to Sanders. “I think our power is going to have to come from building movements.”...

(which is where real political change always originates, anyway)

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/12/kamala-harris-vp-progressives-react-394375
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 13, 2020, 04:02:35 AM
Joe Biden consciously pronounces the plural of κρίση. What f#ing mental decline?

Hoax? W#nkerz. (Florifugurator)

Silence is complicity (Biden et al)

Don't f# up the possiblities (1st principle of biogeophysical permaculture)

...

https://youtu.be/p3D3LX_ZA78
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: El Cid on August 13, 2020, 07:49:16 AM
BTW

with Biden being 77 years old, Harris has cca 20% chance of actually becoming president because of his death

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

He might also decide not to run for a second term in which case she would be a very likely candidate. If he does run for a second term then she has another 30% chance of becoming president by death. And even if he has 2 terms she could still run for president.

All in all, I believe that Harris has a good chance of actually becoming president IF Biden wins the November elections (likely in my view)
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on August 13, 2020, 04:43:59 PM
Lets see if this coincides with the ages of past 7 presidents upon their deaths:

Ford:  left office at 63, dies at 93
Carter:  left office at 56, still kicking at 95
Reagan:  left office at 77 (days before his 78th birthday), died at 93
Bush Sr.:  left office at 68, died at 94
Clinton:  left office at 54, still alive at 73
Bush Jr.:  left office at 62, also 73
Obama:  left office at 55, currently 59

None of them before the age of 93.  Even Reagan, who some consider incapacitated at the end of his term, lived another 16 years upon leaving office.  Granted, retirement is much easier on them, but their lifestyle prior to the presidency was not extremely harsh.  My bet is that Biden lives well past 2025 and most likely into the 2030s.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on August 13, 2020, 04:55:26 PM
Haha, Walrus, i remember you kept saying how Bernie is too old for the job during the primaries. And now this? Please...  ;D
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: The Walrus on August 13, 2020, 05:45:47 PM
Haha, Walrus, i remember you kept saying how Bernie is too old for the job during the primaries. And now this? Please...  ;D

You are mistaken.  I never said that.  The only reference I made to age was to state that Sanders was older than Biden, when another poster stated that Biden was too old. 
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: blumenkraft on August 13, 2020, 05:53:41 PM
You are mistaken.  I never said that.

Sorry, then. My memory must have failed me.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 13, 2020, 06:18:59 PM
You are mistaken.  I never said that.

Sorry, then. My memory must have failed me.
I guess it was me who compared ages of US senators to USSR comrades of the high council.
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: Florifulgurator on August 15, 2020, 05:38:48 PM
from her wiki page: "Harris oversaw more than 1900 convictions for marijuana possession, a higher rate than under her predecessor"
"Oversaw". I heard that before and it smelled fishy. Needs closer scrutiny.

Looks indeed like a nothingburger. More a case for Harris.

Quote
San Francisco Deputy Public Defender Niki Solis says Harris was the state’s most progressive DA and advocated for “so many policies and so many alternatives to incarceration.”
Debated by Law professor Lara Bazelon, who nevertheless admits Kamala Harris has had a "good hard shove to the left" since. Both talk it out with Amy Goodman:

https://youtu.be/_v3cN8Psqu8
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: wili on August 15, 2020, 10:01:39 PM
Thanks, flor

I happened to hear that Goodman interview, too...very interesting. There were other voices that were not quite as convinced, but clearly she wasn't quite as 'law and order' as some are claiming, and was more liberal than other CA prosecutors and DAs at the time
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: sidd on August 20, 2020, 11:25:51 PM
Lind at tablet magazine: Biden will be no friend to the working class

"A Biden administration would be staffed by conventional, conformist, careerist retreads from the administrations of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, representing the pro-Wall Street, anti-labor wing of the Democratic Party that has been dominant since the 1990s. Biden Democrats are likely to use a combination of social liberalism and fiscal conservatism to bring well-heeled Bloombergian independents and country-club Bush Republicans permanently into the Democratic coalition, accelerating its transformation into an alliance of affluent whites with members of minority groups who vote on the basis of race, not class. As long as enough well-off whites and African Americans and Hispanics vote for the centrist candidates of the Clinton-Obama-Biden machine, neoliberal Democrats have nothing to fear from “democratic socialist” poseurs in pricey hipster neighborhoods and college towns."

"From the 1990s to 2020, however, the old labor left has been almost completely replaced in the Democratic Party by a new group of affluent, college-educated “progressives” and “democratic socialists.” "

"many elite liberals as well as elite conservatives approve of the ongoing transformation of the U.S. economy into a system of labor market apartheid similar to that of Saudi Arabia or Dubai, countries which import perpetually refilled underclasses of badly treated immigrants and guest workers toiling in poorly paid jobs without benefits."

"Obama failed to cut Social Security. Biden, if he is elected, will get another chance. Biden will be pressured by the national economic elite to do something about the enormous post-pandemic debt and deficit—and to do it to the working class, not to the donor class."

"Even if the Democrats win a trifecta of the White House, House, and Senate in November, the boss class will remain firmly in control, kicking American labor"

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/coronavirus-pandemic-working-class

sidd
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 20, 2020, 11:31:02 PM
That whole quote seems to be very slanted to one side.  Any balancing opinions available?
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: FrostKing70 on August 20, 2020, 11:40:00 PM
I don't always succeed, but I try to sample news from both sides of the media bias chart:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-biased-is-your-news-source-you-probably-wont-agree-with-this-chart-2018-02-28

Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: sidd on August 20, 2020, 11:44:24 PM
Douthat at nyt: the case for Biden

"Biden might still be the best choice for his party."

"Biden remains the cautious, more-things-to-more-people choice, and if Democrats believe Trump to be an unprecedented authoritarian threat, then the case for such caution is self-evident. "

"You lose any immediate chance at sweeping change, in other words, but you gain some room for incrementalism that greater ideological ambition might foreclose."

" the strongest argument for Biden is nonideological: More than the other candidates, he offers the possibility of a calmer presidency"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/opinion/sunday/joe-biden-2020.html

sidd
Title: Re: Joe Biden
Post by: sidd on August 20, 2020, 11:47:34 PM
Sanders on Biden: we need Joe Biden

"He supports raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour. Giving 40 million workers a pay raise and push the wage scale up for everyone else. Joe will make it easier for workers to join unions, create 12 weeks of paid family leave, fund universal pre-K for 3- and 4-year-olds, and make child care affordable for millions of families. Joe will rebuild our crumbling infrastructure and fight the threat of climate change by transitioning us to 100 percent clean electricity over 15 years"

" he has a plan that will greatly expand health care and cut the cost of prescription drugs. Further, he will lower the eligibility age of Medicare from 65 to 60. To help reform our broken criminal justice system, Joe will end private prisons and the detention centers, cash bail, and the school-to-prison pipeline. "

https://www.vox.com/2020/8/18/21373190/bernie-sanders-progressive-case-for-joe-biden-democratic-national-convention-transcript

sidd