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Off-topic => The politics => Topic started by: bbr2315 on June 21, 2020, 09:31:19 PM

Title: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on June 21, 2020, 09:31:19 PM
Post!

https://www.270towin.com/

I think the battlegrounds this election are (in order of Trump victory likelihood // my guess on pop vote margin in each state) --

Ohio | T +8
Arizona | T +7
Iowa | T +7
Florida | T +4
Michigan | T +4
Pennsylvania | T +3
New Hampshire | T +3
Wisconsin | T+2
Minnesota | T+.5
Oregon | B +.5
Colorado | B +2
Nevada | B +5
New Jersey | B +5
Connecticut | B +5
Virginia | B +6

Trump has about 3 points of margin right now IMO. He can lose everything up to Michigan and still win the election.

I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269. Attaching two of those scenarios as well.

It would be very interesting if the first election for MN to go red in forever was the one where it determined the cycle. Lol. They definitely have reason.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 23, 2020, 02:10:19 AM
Quote
I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269.
With Congress as it is, who do you think would win if the college doesn't decide?
With the controversial nature of this election, could a faithless elector change the result?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 23, 2020, 02:59:56 AM
Quote
I could see a range of "surprise" scenarios resulting in an EC total very close to 269 v 269.
With Congress as it is, who do you think would win if the college doesn't decide?
With the controversial nature of this election, could a faithless elector change the result?

It is possible in any close election.  The House would currently favor the Republicans.  However, it is very close, and there is no guarantee that all the Republicans will support Trump. 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 23, 2020, 05:38:18 AM
I recommend the Electoral Vote website: https://electoral-vote.com/
with a map they (two American professors, one in California, one in Netherlands) update daily, based on non-partisan polling, and other features.  They have a political blog with yesterday's news explained.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 23, 2020, 03:55:19 PM
That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.  Just a few states seem completely out of touch with the electorates, including some states that Trump won in 2016 forecasted to be safe Democratic states (Michigan and Florida).  While I fully expect that Michigan will return to the Democratic camp, Florida appears to be a tossup.  Another head scratcher is Arkansas.  Clinton lost her home state by 27%, yet the state is predicted as only barely GOP.  Trump won Missouri and Utah by almost 20%, yet they are classified as barely GOP also.  Trump won Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, yet they are classified as likely Dem, while Trump states Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio are all considered barely Dem.  A few states that Clinton barely won (Colorado, Maine, and Virginia) and painted as solid Dem.  While I expect this to go blue, they do not appear to be that safe.

I think that fivethirtyeight has a more accurate predictive map:

https://www.270towin.com/maps/fivethirtyeight-2016-polls-plus-forecast
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on June 23, 2020, 04:59:05 PM
That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 23, 2020, 05:16:36 PM
That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 

The election is Biden's to lose.  Hopefully, he will not follow in Clinton's footsteps.

If the polls are to be believed (a Big IF), Biden has a slim lead in Michigan (+1 and +2 in the latest polls), Pennsylvania (+3), and Wisconsin (+4).  These were the three states that swung the 2016 election.  Clinton had a bigger lead in all three at this stage in 2016, but lost them all.  I still believe that Biden will win, but I do not envision a rout, and he could lose.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on June 23, 2020, 05:28:22 PM

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 


The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 23, 2020, 06:31:25 PM

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 


The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.

Quite right.  In his first campaign, Trump promised *some* quite progressive policies.  He promised a health plan that would cover everyone, at reduced cost.  He promised to make the tax structure more progressive, with taxation burdens shifted to the wealthy.  He promised to root out corruption and "drain the swamp."  He promised to make America's air and water much cleaner.  In all these areas, and others, he's done exactly the opposite.
 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on June 23, 2020, 06:33:57 PM
That map looks heavily biased towards the Democrats.  That type of thinking occurred in 2016, and led to the misguided assumption that Hillary Clinton would win easily.

What is misguided is any attempt to extrapolate from 2016 to 2020.

Trump is a guaranteed turnout machine for Democrats in this cycle. His malignant narcissism only plays worse and worse to a public that wants the government to orbit around their problems, not his.

Who wants a divisive racist who royally screwed up the pandemic response and can't lift a glass of water to his mouth one-handed? A POTUS who has US citizens tear gassed and sprayed with rubber bullets so he can take a photo op in DC? Even the evangelicals are pissed at his appointee Gorsuch's LGBTQ decision.

This is going to be an epic rout.

Trump has been labeled many things by his opponents. Some true, most not. The same will be for Biden.

Hilary had a similar lead to Biden at this time in 2016. I would argue Hilary also had a *better* shot of winning than Biden. The benefit always goes to the incumbent, if there is one.

Michigan's Governor is a literal fascist. I would have agreed that Michigan was borderline or possibly Biden-leaning prior to the crisis, but Whitmer's response is going to invigorate turnout on Trump's side. The riots in Minnesota and beyond are going to be an even bigger bump for Trump.

Some label Trump as "racist, blah blah blah" however I see Biden "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" as the actual racist. Democrats have been in charge of the USA's urban agglomerations in totality for the past few decades and beyond and have left many cities rotting hulks. NYC had the highest death toll on the planet due to COVID.

While there is certainly a media bubble and it is LOUD due to Twitter enhancing the voices of those furthest left on the spectrum, I do not believe it extends to reality as 2016 verified and 2020 will again prove. The argument re: economic conditions being unfavorable to Trump also rings hollow as the destruction was mostly caused by Democrat governors.

<way over the top with this one Bbr. - BK> The popular vote may be marginally pro-Biden but I think it will be closer than 2016 if not outright T.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 23, 2020, 06:42:56 PM

I do not dispute anything you have said about Trump.  The only problem is that it was all known in 2016 before the election, and did not appear to make a difference then. 


The experience of Trump as president was not known in 2016.

That is true.  Even so, the two wildcards in the election are the economy and the virus.  The man in charge tends to get the credit or the blame, regardless of his actual contribution.  The news on these fronts could save or doom the man.

Biden needs to be more than just anti-Trump.  People need to be confident that he will see us through any crisis.  He is much more likeable than Clinton was, which should help him.  Clinton had the second highest unfavorable rating of any presidential candidate, and she lost to the most unfavorable.  I do worry a little about what he says.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 23, 2020, 07:07:27 PM
I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on June 23, 2020, 07:22:01 PM
Trump wins again.

After trailing hugely in the polls, Trump wins a solid victory. Democratic brain melt into overdrive. Rioting.

Trump is Trump. Same baffoon as always.

Biden isn't Biden anymore. It was never a great thing to be, but demented is worse. The public will likely see how clueless he is during one of the debates.


(MANY trump supporters are in the closet!)
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: blumenkraft on June 23, 2020, 07:27:32 PM
I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.

Trump just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans. And it will be a lot more.

So much right to life, so much winning!

You got to be kidding, Tom.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: blumenkraft on June 23, 2020, 07:31:44 PM
GSY, please try to contribute in a meaningful way. Be warned, the slippage will be swift if you steal people's time or try to troll.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on June 23, 2020, 07:50:02 PM

Biden needs to be more than just anti-Trump.  People need to be confident that he will see us through any crisis.

People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Trump has already proven that he can't be trusted in this regard. Biden can't be worse.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on June 23, 2020, 07:58:16 PM
People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Any evidence to support this claim?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on June 23, 2020, 08:14:46 PM
People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.

Any evidence to support this claim?

https://www.google.com/search?q=self+evident+definition
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: colchonero on June 23, 2020, 08:17:05 PM
Any prediction that has Florida not tied, not leaning not even probable but safe Democrat, in line with CA and NY is laughable.

It is also laughable, (not to choose any stronger words) to say that Democrats have 258 el votes safe while GOP has less than 100. You can be whatever professor with zillion degrees, you are not living in the real world. I can bet my house anytime Florida won't be anywhere near NY and CA, and GOP will have way more than 90 something el votes safe. Easy money. Their prediction looks more like something I would expect to see in Belarus,Serbia,Hungary,Russia etc.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on June 23, 2020, 08:24:39 PM
People need to be confident that a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way of responding to a crisis.
Any evidence to support this claim?
https://www.google.com/search?q=self+evident+definition

Okay. Well we have president whose ego gets in the way of everything he does, crisis or not. And I am a person. And I don't need to any different. So no, ppl don't need to be confident a POTUS won't let their ego get in the way.

Every person let's their ego get in the way of everything. Ppl who don't get that are the problem. They will get take advantage of time and again. And they will answer a forum question snarkily with a link.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: blumenkraft on June 23, 2020, 08:29:12 PM
Everyone, play the ball. Not the man.

Talk about the topic at hand, not about how you feel about other users!
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 23, 2020, 08:35:57 PM
Any prediction that has Florida not tied, not leaning not even probable but safe Democrat, in line with CA and NY is laughable.

It is also laughable, (not to choose any stronger words) to say that Democrats have 258 el votes safe while GOP has less than 100. You can be whatever professor with zillion degrees, you are not living in the real world. I can bet my house anytime Florida won't be anywhere near NY and CA, and GOP will have way more than 90 something el votes safe. Easy money. Their prediction looks more like something I would expect to see in Belarus,Serbia,Hungary,Russia etc.

Considering that Obama was the only presidential candidate since Carter to amass more than 50% of the vote in Florida, this seems like quite the stretch.  Over the past seven presidential elections, Democrats have the slightest advantage by a margin of 47.40 to 47.22%.  Even Obama only won the state 51-48 and 50-49 in his two winning bids.  No one has won Florida by more than 6% since Bush (the elder, not W). 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 23, 2020, 08:53:56 PM
I'll vote for the candidate endorsed by Right To Life but I probably won't like it.
And it probably won't be enough for his reelection.

Trump just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans. And it will be a lot more.

So much right to life, so much winning!

You got to be kidding, Tom.
blumenkraft, I got a copy of the GOP primary ballot because I thought the park levy was on it (it wasn't, because I live in Twinsburg). Since Trump's name was the only one on the ballot, I couldn't even vote against him, so i threw it away.
Here is what conservatives think about his SCOTUS pick:
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/06/et_tu_gorsuch.html
Quote
When even our "originalist" judges are so hostile to the historical record and imaginative and fanciful with their assault on truth, is there any hope for ever achieving a Supreme Court that can constrain itself within the bounds of Article III without constantly stealing powers from the Legislative and Executive Branches far beyond its purview?  Of course not!  The priestly oligarchs rewriting language for everyone else have already dispensed with any distinction between "man" and "woman"; why would they quibble with the managerial nuances between "judge" and "legislator"?  All Gorsuch has done with Bostock is proven that, regardless of his pedigree and education, he still can't read.
And I suspect his next picks will be just as disappointing to them and me.
I don't hate the politicians on both sides anymore...I'm too fed up with their BS to get the gumption to have that emotion. But I hate the System that forces me to choose between one jerk who "just single-handedly killed tens of thousands of Americans" (and I don't even know what particular shenanigan you are referring to here, there are so may of them) and a jerk who supports killing hundreds of thousands of American babies.
Well, I have expressed my opinion on this fubared American election system. Any further should be taken to PMs because Neven does not want this abortion debated here.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: be cause on June 23, 2020, 09:18:43 PM
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: gerontocrat on June 23, 2020, 11:26:26 PM
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 
Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on June 24, 2020, 12:04:05 AM
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 
Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.
I disagree with you here. He wants a good economy - period. It isn't like a good economy is only good for reelection.

GSY's posts are spot-on.

RE: stocks -- I am not sure what is going to happen but I could see another major market crash happening before the election, I think it is guaranteed whether it happens before Halloween or afterwards, but it is coming alongside wave #2 (as all the transport / hospitality sector failures snowball in particular).

If the market thinks Biden's chances of election are rising we could see a crash come before the election, as a bump to capital gains rates in 2022 would be enough to spook a sell-off in 2020 (I would argue this is partially why 2008 tanked so hard in September, because of the unknown of the Obama Presidency).

If there is an election where stocks + econ are uncoupled from the incumbent, I think it is this one, due to the pandemic situation which can be used as justification for the downturn.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Freegrass on June 24, 2020, 12:31:19 AM
Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on June 24, 2020, 12:49:32 AM
Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)
You do realize regular people own 401Ks and houses and assets etc....
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 24, 2020, 09:21:48 AM
  ^^^ this is why I didn't choose to let this thread through .. can we at least drop it from the front page ?
 
Definitely belongs in "Politics - Enter at your peril", and certainly does not belong in the front page.

ps:- Trump is relying on the stock market and the economy to pull the rabbit out of the hat.  If that takes a few score thousand more dead - so be it.

With enough old rich people dying to covid, he might just succeed in this heist, just slap a temporary 80% inheritance tax for those dying from covid or covid related illness and explain it's for unpatriotic behavior.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 24, 2020, 01:25:06 PM
Trump is pumping trillions of dollars of the relief money into the stock market while regular people are left in the cold. Curious to see if people will fall for that grand theft...

https://www.usdebtclock.org/ (https://www.usdebtclock.org/)
You do realize regular people own 401Ks and houses and assets etc....

Yes, he may be trying to buy the election with the stimulus checks and unemployment benefits.  The stock market may just be an illusion, as many people had plenty of money, but nothing to buy.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on June 26, 2020, 12:50:28 AM
3/4 of American's hate political correctness. Trump is the politically incorrect candidate. Never has the political correctness movement been more severe in America.

This causes a significant portion of the population to never admit publicly to supporting Trump. So despite the PC movement driving more voters to Trump, the polls show him losing popularity. (This whole thing is known as Bradley effect. But it has never been this intense before. This is the Bradley effect on steroids.)


Also, Trump's base love him to death. They think he is the greatest president ever, lol. Biden's base really don't like him at all, they just hate trump. Love will trump hate, llol.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on June 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM
I'm predicting this map (lots of toss ups, I know). With all the toss ups, there is about an 80% chance of Biden winning, and a 269-269 tie is possible. Trump *must* win Florida or he's toast.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on June 26, 2020, 06:35:48 PM
Cannot argue too much with your map.  Personally, I think Nevada would be light blue, and the Maine second district is a toss-up or light red (Trump won this district in 2016). 

I agree that Trump cannot win without Florida.  I would be surprised if he wins Michigan again.  He barely won the state in 2016, which was the first time that a Republican candidate has carried the state since Bush in 1988.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on June 26, 2020, 09:18:17 PM
I'm in Nevada. We be blue here. The equity refugees from California have tipped the scales.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 26, 2020, 10:08:12 PM
"We, the areas"-maps picked up today.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on July 09, 2020, 11:44:09 PM
Some big news. I know it may seem trivial but Kanye has entered the race. I think Trump and Kanye are friends, and I think this is a ploy to divert black voters from Biden ("if you don't vote for me you ain't black"), and it will prove successful. If Trump wasn't already a shoo-in for victory, I think a 400+ EV blowout is now possible.

It should be noted the only poll that came close to being correct in 2016 has Trump tied with Biden nationally and winning by 300+ EV in the EC.

For some reason the original Express article is not working, here is alt link --

https://www.nairaland.com/5976132/trump-shock-election-poll-black

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters. That may only turn out to be about 2-3% of the popular vote but it is going to come almost entirely from Biden and it could actually be sufficient to flip states like New Jersey, Virginia, maybe even New York depending on how badly Kanye takes support from Biden.

Consequently, my new map --



Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 10, 2020, 12:54:41 AM
Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

For black voters, this election is all about stopping Trump.  If anything, Kanye's impact will be to eliminate any sense of complacency and send Democratic participation through the roof.

The beat down is going to be reminiscent of LBJ v. Goldwater.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on July 10, 2020, 07:06:53 AM
Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

For black voters, this election is all about stopping Trump.  If anything, Kanye's impact will be to eliminate any sense of complacency and send Democratic participation through the roof.

The beat down is going to be reminiscent of LBJ v. Goldwater.
Ahahahahahahahaha.

For "X" voters "2016 election was all about stopping Trump".

What a racist thing to say as well. Why is it that white liberals (presumably -- I could be wrong) feel so free to tell all black people how to vote. Joe "if you don't vote for me you ain't black" Biden is the epitome of this wantonly offensive and unearned attitude and when Democrats stare defeat in the face yet again come November they will yet again say "but how could we have known". lolllll.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 10, 2020, 09:56:51 AM
The only one telling black people how to vote is Trump.

He called the neo-nazis at Charlottesville good people. He tear gassed the BLM protesters. He defends the confederate monuments. He condemned the black athletes like Kaepernick who took a knee and protested police violence. He screwed up the Covid management which has disproportionately hurt people of color.

It's true that Biden has an actual terrible history with black issues. But, the black community decided that he was the best chance to beat Trump and they have taken ownership of his candidacy. 
They didn't take their cue from Biden....they took it from black leaders like Jim Clyburn and Obama.

You are the one who introduced racism into these comments by suggesting black people would vote for Kanye because he is black and gloating about the cynical ploy to split the black vote. It isn't going to work.

Trump was the last hurrah for white supremacy. He created the unity that will permanently marginalize his base of support. The demographic dominoes are lined up to roll over America like a tsunami. Young people are rejecting racism, climate denial and evangelical christianity.

It's time to assimilate.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on July 10, 2020, 03:23:24 PM
I've updated my prediction based on more recent polling. I think that, once anger over the GOP's handling of the coronavirus and BLM subsides, Biden will lose ~4 points. I also think the pollsters have got Florida wrong.

I also think Kanye West's run will be barely noticeable. His application is too late to even show up on the ballot on some states! The vast majority of Americans have never heard of him. Of those who do know of him, many will write this off as a joke/PR campaign. Of those who know of him and are taking his run seriously, most will are already locked in as voting for one of the two big parties anyway. This only leaves a tiny portion of the vote that Kanye even has a chance of taking. I think JoJo (the Libertarian candidate) will have a much bigger third party impact, and that could completely screw Trump over!

This map leaves Biden just 1 EC vote off winning (note: Trump would probably win a 269-269 tie because of how the tiebreaker works) meaning he only needs to snag 1 toss up, which I think is quite likely.

Republicans, on the other hand, need to win all 5 toss ups (NH, NC, FL, AZ, NV) just to tie. There's hope, but not much of it.

Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on July 10, 2020, 03:31:32 PM
Pragmatic,
I tend to agree with your map.  I am not so sure about the Maine and Nebraska districts, as I would move them to the tossup column.  Other than that, Wisconsin would be the only other state that could be a tossup.  Either way, Trump would need to win almost all the undecideds to remain in the white house.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 10, 2020, 03:34:26 PM
Quote
Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.
How would this work? I figure it would help Trump. Biden voters believe in social distancing and would more likely stay home, while Trump voters think it is a hoax (to exaggerate some). Or to go to an extreme, I suppose Trump could cancel the election as a public health measure, but then God only knows what would happen.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: gerontocrat on July 10, 2020, 03:39:28 PM
Thank the Lord it's "Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map" and not mine.

On the other hand - back here in the UK we are stuck with 4 more years of Boris Johnson.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on July 10, 2020, 04:00:14 PM
Quote
Note: this all assumes the election will actually go off without a hitch and there's no COVID related turnout suppression.
How would this work? I figure it would help Trump. Biden voters believe in social distancing and would more likely stay home, while Trump voters think it is a hoax (to exaggerate some). Or to go to an extreme, I suppose Trump could cancel the election as a public health measure, but then God only knows what would happen.

Interesting thought.  Then again, Biden supporters (young voters) are more opposed to the stay at home orders endorsed by the Democrats.  How would that affect the outcome?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: sedziobs on July 11, 2020, 03:47:21 AM
This map leaves Biden just 1 EC vote off winning ...

Republicans, on the other hand, need to win all 5 toss ups (NH, NC, FL, AZ, NV) just to tie. There's hope, but not much of it.
That was the idea of the "blue wall" leading up to the 2016 election. If Clinton won the typically reliable great lakes states of MN, WI, MI, and PA, she would only need one tossup to win. Of course the blue wall failed.   

Those states have 56 EC votes. Your tossups have 65. It would be interesting if the blue wall again failed but the tossups swung to Biden. Demographic changes offer some support to that outcome.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 11, 2020, 04:10:44 AM
Put your money where your mouth is Cheeto fans. Predictit.org has Biden as a 60% favorite.

We need some more Trump money in there to get a better payback.

https://www.predictit.org/
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 11, 2020, 04:28:46 AM
I think that, once anger over the GOP's handling of the coronavirus and BLM subsides, Biden will lose ~4 points.


What miracle is going to cause a change in the US Covid outlook?

There probably isn't going to be any football in America this fall. The food banks can't keep up with demand. We're going to have more school closures. We're in a total clusterf**** and Trump is just going for maximum grift in the last 6 months.

We're more likely to get $250 billion worth of Cat 5 landfalls in Trump country that put the spotlight on climate denial than any progress on Covid.

The GOP is in deep ocean with a 500 lb. weight chained to their ankles. The only way this goes is down, down, down.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 13, 2020, 11:13:22 PM
Taegen Goddard's Political Wire (https://politicalwire.com/) has a consensus electoral map (https://electoralvotemap.com/).  Today's posts include
Quote
A New Swing State on the Map
(Texas)
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on July 14, 2020, 02:03:47 AM
Taegen Goddard's Political Wire (https://politicalwire.com/) has a consensus electoral map (https://electoralvotemap.com/).  Today's posts include
Quote
A New Swing State on the Map
(Texas)
Hillary campaigned in Arizona and Georgia too. Wonder if Biden will make the same mistakes. Not that he would know where he is campaigning anyways...
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on July 14, 2020, 01:28:54 PM
Taegen Goddard's Political Wire (https://politicalwire.com/) has a consensus electoral map (https://electoralvotemap.com/).  Today's posts include
Quote
A New Swing State on the Map
(Texas)
Hillary campaigned in Arizona and Georgia too. Wonder if Biden will make the same mistakes. Not that he would know where he is campaigning anyways...

That's assuming it will be a mistake. Texas has a lot of important down-ballot candidates to secure before 2022 redistricting occurs, which could easily lock in house seats.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Paddy on July 14, 2020, 03:05:17 PM

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters.

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

Currently West is polling at 2% of the vote, vs 48% for Biden and 39% for Trump.  If he's not included in the poll, the polling splits 48% for Biden vs 40% for Trump, so if anything he may be taking more votes from Trump than Biden. 

In any event, he's probably going to be irrelevant.  Most people who are politically minded enough to vote will go for the candidate from one of the big two parties, as always.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 14, 2020, 03:15:23 PM
This is going to be a close race, But, assuming the Republicans have a cure for the disease already manufactured (as the disease was also made by them) and if they spread it via chemtrails to the sickly susceptible people this alone might turn the election to a big victory for them.

Sorry to spread such nonsense here but in love and politics everything... Umm... That's not how the phrase goes.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on July 14, 2020, 03:19:01 PM
With people getting tired of lockdown and Trump opposed to lockdowns could that actually help him?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: SteveMDFP on July 14, 2020, 05:33:56 PM

In any case, I think Kanye is going to pull in 1-2% of Trump supporters nationally, and 5-10% of Biden supporters.

Wishful thinking on the Kanye impact.

Currently West is polling at 2% of the vote, vs 48% for Biden and 39% for Trump.  If he's not included in the poll, the polling splits 48% for Biden vs 40% for Trump, so if anything he may be taking more votes from Trump than Biden. 

In any event, he's probably going to be irrelevant.  Most people who are politically minded enough to vote will go for the candidate from one of the big two parties, as always.

Quite right.  But Kanye is even more irrelevant than this analysis would suggest.  When he made his twitter announcement, he'd already passed the deadline to appear on the ballot in multiple states. 

Note that he has a diagnosis of bipolar disorder.  There's good reason to believe his announcement was part of a manic episode.  One can see further evidence of this in his Forbes interview:

Kanye West Reveals Presidential Platform In Exclusive Interview With Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2020/07/08/kanye-west-reveals-presidential-platform-in-exclusive-interview-with-forbes/ (https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbespr/2020/07/08/kanye-west-reveals-presidential-platform-in-exclusive-interview-with-forbes/)

His stated plan is to run under the banner of a new political party:  The Birthday Party.

As far as I can tell from subsequent news articles, he's taken zero concrete steps to establish this new political party, or to appear on any ballots anywhere as an independent candidate.  It's notable that he's never voted in an election in his entire life. 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 17, 2020, 06:12:24 PM
Cheeto has demoted campaign manager Brad Parscale and is now trailing by 15 points according to a recent Quinnipiac poll.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/15/politics/quinnipiac-poll-biden-leading-trump-economy/index.html

We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Paddy on July 17, 2020, 06:38:37 PM
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2020, 06:50:48 PM
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope

Ya, LBJ was excellent. Biden will be even better. I mean both men were born in the 19th century as Democratic racists, but Biden has whiter teeth.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Paddy on July 17, 2020, 07:04:58 PM
If your best argument in favour of Trump is that he's marginally (3 years) the younger septuagenarian, you haven't got much of an argument.  Especially not when trying to make the comparison on racism when you're backing the guy who backs white supremacists.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 17, 2020, 07:26:45 PM
We're heading toward LBJ / Goldwater territory.

We can only hope

Ya, LBJ was excellent. Biden will be even better. I mean both men were born in the 19th century as Democratic racists, but Biden has whiter teeth.

Personally, I'm a huge critic of Biden's record. But this election is all about the other guy whose bad record is happening in real time and eclipses all precedent. Trump would lose to almost anyone with a pulse at this point.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2020, 07:32:47 PM
the guy who backs white supremacists.

The biggest falsehood in America right now. "But that's what my favorite "News" outlet told me".
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2020, 07:33:35 PM
Trump would lose to almost anyone with a pulse at this point.

So are you saying that he is a shoe in unless the Dem's pick a new candidate?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Paddy on July 17, 2020, 07:54:48 PM
the guy who backs white supremacists.

The biggest falsehood in America right now. "But that's what my favorite "News" outlet told me".

I'm not even in America. This is worldwide knowledge.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2020, 07:57:07 PM
Worldwide misconception.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: GoSouthYoungins on July 17, 2020, 08:03:52 PM
If your best argument in favour of Trump is that he's marginally (3 years) the younger septuagenarian.


I didn't even make an argument for Trump. But fine:

-He this domestic terrorists should be stopped.
-He wants things made in America.
-He understands the biggest threat to America is China.
-He tries to work for minority votes, not tell people they lose their ethnicity if they consider voting for the other guy.
-He understands that without borders their is no sovereignty
-He believes 2+2=4.

In general, he is a buffoon and 99% of his political views are garbage. But Trump Derangement Syndrome is a severe mental virus that has taken over much of the western world.

TDS will continue to cause people who live in a tiny bubble and are certain they are right to predict a huge Trump defeat. Trump has a good chance of winning. If he does TDS may mutate into a fatal disorder. But whatever, paint the each state blue on your map and be REAL excited for that Tuesday night!
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: PragmaticAntithesis on July 18, 2020, 12:01:53 AM
Now for something completely different: my opinion on what Biden's best path to 270 is.

I'm using electoral vote's polling analysis for this. https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/tipping_point.html)

Firstly, the dark blue states (plus ME-1). These are states where Biden holds an 11+ point lead. Biden will win these states, even if he underperforms the polls by 10 points (which is extremely unlikely).

Secondly, the likely D states. These are: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and Minnesota. Biden needs 5 (any 5) of these to take the White House. Because relying on Florida to go blue is a terrible idea; I think Biden should focus on the other 5, which I have coloured light blue. If I were Biden's campaign team, I would be focusing a very significant amount of time and money on making absolutely certain these 5 states go to Biden.

Thirdly, the states Biden doesn't need to win but probably will anyway, which I have coloured grey. Campaigning in these states (except NE-2 which only has 1 vote) could gave Biden a nice safety net, just in case one of the 5 key states ends up surprising.

Finally, the states I coloured red. These are states where, if Biden wins, he's already so far ahead that the election is in the bag anyway. If Biden's campaign team tries to focus on these areas (and aren't doing so for the purpose of downballot races such as the Senate), I would be facepalming so hard, as it would mean the Democrats have learned nothing from 2016. It's 270 to win, not 400!

If Biden gets the states I've highlighted, not even a 10 point miracle can save Trump.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on July 18, 2020, 03:01:29 AM
P.A.,
Nicely done.  You should be his campaign manager, as you have a well thought out strategy.  If Clinton has done that, she might be running for re-election right now.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 18, 2020, 06:05:08 AM
Curious what the Trump supporters think of DHS sending unidentified officers into Oregon w/o consultation and against the wishes of local / state officials ?

What should a person do when a couple of unidentified officers try to hustle them into a unmarked vehicle?

Do you think perception of this action in some other states helps him win with voters?
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Phoenix on July 18, 2020, 09:35:39 PM
Nice article from Vox about how progressives such as myself are really warming up to Biden's candidacy.

https://www.vox.com/21322478/joe-biden-overton-window-bidenism

I gotta say, Biden is the perfect Trojan Horse in an election for the progressive agenda. He's got no leftist bonafides for the GOP to attack. His record is basically Bob Dole with a (D).

He doesn't offer the qualities that will inspire the opposition to turn out against him en masse like Hillary or Trump.

Don't like abortion? Biden is a Catholic who was against Roe v. Wade when it was announced. Don't like the BLM / social justice movement? Biden was the author of the Crime Bill and is as responsible for the incarceration state as anybody. Don't like the defund the police movement? Biden doesn't either. Who could Democrats have nominated that would inspire less antipathy among conservatives than Biden?

Meanwhile, Biden and Bernie are doing a fantastic job of putting up a united front. Biden is signing up for progressive policies left and right but he doesn't have to deal with socialist label or the anti-semitism that Bernie would have faced in a general election. I'm increasingly appreciative of the teamwork between the Democratic camps and reflecting on what a disaster HRC was in this regard in 2016.

It's a perfect storm for a landslide.



Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on September 26, 2020, 07:45:05 PM
My newest map!
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 27, 2020, 12:17:07 AM
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com (https://electoral-vote.com/)  graphs page (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html) shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on September 27, 2020, 12:47:23 AM
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com (https://electoral-vote.com/)  graphs page (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html) shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
A graph of someone's prediction looks like.... a graph of someone's prediction.

(https://electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/ec_graph-2016-solid.png)
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: gandul on September 27, 2020, 03:26:11 AM
Unlike your apparent pie in the sky dream, the Electoral-Vote.com (https://electoral-vote.com/)  graphs page (https://electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/ec_graph-2020.html) shows the hurdle President Trump has to overcome.  All the 'statistically tied' states are not represented in this particular chart:
I have little faith on Biden putting up a real fight on the debates (there will be debates, right?).

I would not put much trust on those predictions just yet.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Ktb on September 27, 2020, 04:02:12 AM
bbr's map has no basis in reality. California isn't solid dem? Washington state only leans dem? So many other issues lmao

First debate is September 29th. No candidate has backed out or refused to debate yet. Although Trump has requested PED testing.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on September 27, 2020, 04:07:21 AM
bbr's map has no basis in reality. California isn't solid dem? Washington state only leans dem? So many other issues lmao

First debate is September 29th. No candidate has backed out or refused to debate yet. Although Trump has requested PED testing.
CA is one of the bluest states in the country, Biden will still lead with 10%+ there IMO. Washington State has been heavily impacted by the fires, riots, and lockdowns and will be impacted accordingly -- not enough to flip it to the R side though, unlike Oregon and New York (no fires in NYC, tho).
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Ktb on September 27, 2020, 04:10:18 AM
Right, one of the bluest states in the country and it is only likely dem according to you. Makes sense. I am sure you applied this excellent R bias filter to the rest of your map as well.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on September 27, 2020, 04:16:43 AM
Right, one of the bluest states in the country and it is only likely dem according to you. Makes sense. I am sure you applied this excellent R bias filter to the rest of your map as well.
I don't think the colors are "likely" but margin, you are making up a narrative here...

Trump is going to obliterate the long-term D voting blocks IMO and they are not yet re-coalescing so this is a re-alignment election a la Reagan '84 or Clinton '96. While it cannot be said he has total grip over the R constituency it can be said the D constituency is in tatters and many groups are fragmenting towards the Rs or sitting out the election (IMO).

My 2016 map, FYI.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Freegrass on September 27, 2020, 04:57:14 AM
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on September 27, 2020, 05:00:09 AM
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
The only old people afraid of going out and voting are on the D side of the spectrum...

If you are counting on young people, well, good luck, after torpedo'ing Bernie for the second time, and then the entire labor market.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Freegrass on September 27, 2020, 07:53:19 AM
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...
The only old people afraid of going out and voting are on the D side of the spectrum...

If you are counting on young people, well, good luck, after torpedo'ing Bernie for the second time, and then the entire labor market.
I hope they learned their lesson for not voting for Clinton last time. They can see now what the result of that idiocy was. A 6-3 supreme court. Maybe the end of healthcare and abortion...

Besides, Trump is losing all the old people because he's letting them die... They're old, and not stupid! They can see what Trump did and didn't do.

This isn't an election to elect Biden! This is an election to save American democracy and decency...
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on September 28, 2020, 05:18:02 PM
Polls are BS. It's all about turnout. If old people are afraid to come out and vote, and young people energised to go out and vote, Biden will win big, because the younger generation votes more Democratic.

If they can suppress the vote like they did in 2016, Donald Chump will win again. But that's never gonna happen...

This is rhetoric that is not substantiated.  The polls were wrong once, because the voters did not like either candidate, and many stated that they would vote third party.  That did not occur, as most of the Johnson supporters voted for Trump on election day.  Trump supporters are still under-represented in the polls, but not by as much.  Those polls showing Biden with 50% or more, will likely vote blue.  That includes Minn., Mich., and Wis.  Those with less are toss-ups, including Fla., Ariz., Pa., Nev., and N.H.  All these states were very close (except for Arizona) in 2016.  Traditional red states, Texas, Ga., Iowa, N.Car., and Ohio would be a challenge for Biden.  Trump needs to win all those states to have a chance at re-election.  Biden just needs to win Florida or Pennsylvania and one other to win.

There was no suppression in 2016.  Voter turnout was higher in 2016 than in 2012, with just over 60% compared to 58.6%.  Turnout this year is anyone's guess. 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Ktb on September 29, 2020, 02:32:06 PM
I have only minor qualms with what you have said, Walrus.

There has always been voter suppression. The United States was built on voter suppression.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: be cause on September 29, 2020, 02:44:24 PM
Last night , almost the entire (UK) Channel 4 news was on the exposure of successful voter suppression in 2016 . It is well worth a watch .. https://www.channel4.com/programmes/channel-4-news?intcmp=homepage_collection_channel_4_news_p3_l1
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on September 29, 2020, 03:07:29 PM
I have only minor qualms with what you have said, Walrus.

There has always been voter suppression. The United States was built on voter suppression.

Yes, I should have said it was less.  Intimidation, poll tax, etc. have been used throughout history.  This has been reduced significantly in recent elections.  Similarly, fraud has likely been reduced also.  The incidences of vote buying, pre-marked and altered ballots, and the infamous "cemetery vote" have been reduced.  The increase in absentee ballots has expanded that realm for exploitation. 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 01, 2020, 08:19:26 PM
A month out, here is my prediction for state electoral outcomes.  I just can't call Texas!  If my ranges are all correct or nearly so (give 3 points on the margins), it will be a miracle [e.g., Texas being won by up to 5 points by one of the candidates, and all the 1%ers could flip].  As a week is a lifetime in politics, we have over four lifetimes to go.  Only a fool would prognosticate this far out ...

"A fool never learns and I'm going to do a very foolish thing... (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2337.msg162324.html#msg162324)"
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on October 01, 2020, 08:50:14 PM
Arkansas being barely red?  Iowa turning blue?  You must think that Trump really tanked on Tuesday. 
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: bbr2315 on October 29, 2020, 04:44:32 PM
My newest map!
This will probably be my final call.

Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: RikW on November 02, 2020, 08:40:55 AM
I think the polls are overcorrecting for Trump and this will be a large victory for Biden

https://www.270towin.com/maps/VpW6P
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: colchonero on November 02, 2020, 09:15:42 AM
No offense but,

Earth is calling man, there is literally no chance of Trump getting 120 EV only. I mean I don't want people to be in shock when it turns out otherwise on Tuesday. I am not saying Biden isn't gonna win, he might, but he ain't getting 413 electoral votes man, nowhere near that.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 03:27:40 PM
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer could be more disappointed than Joe Biden on election night. Trafalgar has African-American GOP Senate candidate John James slightly ahead in Michigan. Trump may drag Sen. Martha McSally over the finish line in Arizona, and Alabama will return its Senate seat to the GOP.

It’s also hard to see how a cresting wave of Trump enthusiasm won’t create a GOTV result that keeps Colorado Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in his job.

The bottom line is simple math. When you add the electoral votes from reliably red states to any breach in the Blue Wall, Trump wins again, possibly even bigger than he did last time.


Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: RikW on November 02, 2020, 03:31:51 PM
No offense but,

Earth is calling man, there is literally no chance of Trump getting 120 EV only. I mean I don't want people to be in shock when it turns out otherwise on Tuesday. I am not saying Biden isn't gonna win, he might, but he ain't getting 413 electoral votes man, nowhere near that.

To be honest, I would be really surprised if I'm right ;) But I won't be surprised either if the polls did some overcorrection based on last presidential elections
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 02, 2020, 04:08:00 PM
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.

Polling is a semi-scientific endeavor. It's not hard to discern bias among pollsters. Trafalgar is a plainly right-leaning, biased pollster.  So of course they called 2016 for Trump.  That's no indication of quality.  See:

Nate Silver Blasts Trafalgar Polls as "Crazy"
https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/nate-silver-blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy (https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/politics/nate-silver-blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy)

Now, it's not surprising that Silver might slam a pollster who is an outlier among less biased outfits.  But see the specifics of one state from Trafalgar:

"Trafalgar poll in Florida. What is this in the crosstabs? 18-24 year olds 18 points for Trump? Trump winning 31% of Black voters?

"Trafalgar Response - Remove the Cross Tabs
Links to these Trafalgar polls with the dubious crosstabs have gone dead."
__________________________________________________________

And, by the way, Nate Silver wasn't "wrong" in 2016.  He didn't say Hillary would win.  He said Trump had a 30% chance of winning.  Given Trump's razor-thin margin in a few states, and Hillary's relatively commanding lead in the popular vote, I think Nate's odds were appropriate.

Anything from "American Thinker" should be taken with a very large grain of salt.  They're so biased and unsophisticated, that it's a waste of your time and the forum's time to even discuss their nonsense.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on November 02, 2020, 05:50:04 PM
Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.

I would agree.  I think Biden will win by ~20 electoral votes.  Very close.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 06:57:12 PM
I'll keep that in mind, Steve.
I posted a claim from them on another thread a few minutes ago. I qualified it because the story was a little hard to believe, but if it actually happened (it is one person's account) then it is an outrage and reflects horribly on this country's elections.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: The Walrus on November 02, 2020, 11:14:56 PM
Something to keep in mind from America's most trustworthy news source :-J

October Surprise: This Race Is Over
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/11/october_surprise_this_race_is_over_.html
Quote
Finally, there’s the matter of polling. Most polls are commissioned by media organizations that are openly hostile to Trump. Why should anyone believe them now making basically the same anti-Trump predictions that were completely wrong in 2016?

One polling company, though, stands out. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016. Now Trafalgar forecasts Trump will take Florida, Michigan, and Arizona.


Me? If someone forced me to make a prediction, I would say Biden will win, but not by a landslide (this article shows why a Blue tsunami is unlikely now). But that is what I thought about Hillary back in 2016, so what the heck do I know?

Anyway, still a few hours to post your map predictions.

The best way to determine a pollsters accuracy is to compare the polling numbers to the ballot results.  Looking back to 2016 and comparing the Trafalgar data in those states polled in the last week before the election and the final results, reveals the following:

State:      Trafalgar:     Results:     Diff.:
PA           Trump +1     Trump +1    0
MI           Trump +2     Trump +0    Trump +2
FL           Trump +4     Trump +1    Trump +3
NC           Trump +5     Trump +4    Trump +1
OH           Trump +5    Trump +8    Clinton +3
GA           Trump +7     Trump +5    Trump +2

Overall, there was a 1% bias towards Trump.  Other states, such as IA, WI, AZ, etc were not polled by Trafalgar.  Trafalgar has Trump ahead in all these states by at least 2% in their most recent polls.   Trafalgar is polling WI, NV, and MN this election cycle, and showing Biden ahead narrowly, but Trump leading AZ.
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Paddy on November 07, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
These maps might interest some people here:

https://twitter.com/damocrat/status/1325027473399144450?s=20
Title: Re: Your 2020 US Presidential Election Map
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 03:51:50 PM
Thanks, Paddy.  I wonder what the map would look like if every eligible voter voted.