Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Juan C. García on July 31, 2020, 04:00:02 AM

Title: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 31, 2020, 04:00:02 AM
The poll is for the minimum Daily Arctic sea ice extent in September 2020, as measured by ADS-NIPR-VISHOP (JAXA).

September mínimums have been:

 Year               Extent
                  10^6 km2
1980's Avg.     7.19
1990's Avg.     6.49
2000's Avg.     5.41
2010's Avg.     4.33
2000               6.04
2001               6.55
2002               5.51
2003               5.93
2004               5.68
2005               5.18
2006               5.63
2007               4.07
2008               4.50
2009               5.05
2010               4.62
2011               4.27
2012               3.18
2013               4.81
2014               4.88
2015               4.26
2016               4.02
2017               4.47
2018               4.46
2019               3.96

The 2020 minimum is  3,554,798 km2, reached on September 13th.
The right bins are 3.50 - 4.00M and 3.25-3.75M km2.


Order by lowest to highest:
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 31, 2020, 06:27:02 AM
I'm starting this poll with the 3.25-3.75M km2 range. Looking at Gerontocrat's posts, his latest projection is on 3.54M km2, so I feel confortable here.
I will wait 8 or 9 days to give my final bet.

I include the ADS JAXA graph that shows the years until September. What will happen?  8)
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: oren on July 31, 2020, 07:12:54 AM
Dropped to 3.25-3.75, with downside risk higher than upside.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: pauldry600 on July 31, 2020, 01:01:57 PM
I put in 3.5 to 4m as I think it will finish at 3.9m

I could also have put in 3.75 to 4.25 but it will probably be lower
than 3.9m and not over 4
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Paul on July 31, 2020, 01:42:50 PM
Between 3.50 and 4.00 but final figure I reckon could be around 3.7 given the lack of Siberian ice and more Beauffort/Chukchi ice will melt between now and September.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: icefisher on July 31, 2020, 09:19:20 PM
dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on July 31, 2020, 09:21:51 PM
dispersion late in august with ice ranging from 40-80 cm.  4.018 for minimum on Sept. 8.  will there be a min. volume poll?
It is a volume poll with PIOMAS data:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3230.0.html (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,3230.0.html)
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: JNap on July 31, 2020, 10:27:12 PM
I predict 3.0 - 3.5.   I think that we will end up close to 2012 levels.   This is a move down of two bins from the July poll.  The degree and duration of the GAAC will have material impact on the final September minimum extent this year.

Given the accumulated heat content in the arctic, I agree with Oren's view above that there is a greater likelihood that extent could drop below 3.0 then there is of it ending up above 3.5.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: glennbuck on August 01, 2020, 02:39:13 PM
2.50-3.00M km2 range. Lower if a Cyclone hits in August.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: D-Penguin on August 01, 2020, 03:07:15 PM
A 'guess'...between 2.75 and 3.25 million km^2...but it all depends on the weather (how often has this caveat been used?). So, the 'critical' question is 'how' is the weather being created?
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Stephan on August 01, 2020, 10:39:00 PM
I repeated my guesses from July and June. Thinking it'll be a solid second place, but more than 3.75 M km².
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: RikW on August 01, 2020, 10:57:36 PM
I can’t imagine it ending above 4M, but as said by others, weather will have a big influence
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on August 09, 2020, 05:49:41 AM
Just 2 more days to vote or change your vote.  ;)
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Paddy on August 09, 2020, 07:09:10 PM
Bumped my vote up to 3.75 to 4.25
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on August 10, 2020, 05:51:09 AM
I am going up one bin, to 3.5-4.0 M km2.
There is only one day left to vote or change your vote.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: glennbuck on August 10, 2020, 09:13:02 AM
2.50-3.00M km2 range. Lower if a Cyclone hits in August.

Up a bin, 2.75-3.25M km2
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: slow wing on August 10, 2020, 02:43:03 PM
Dropping down half a bin as the high stayed high & the sun kept shining, & then the wind blew in the Beaufort.

August poll for JAXA: 3.25-3.75M km2 VHC (Very high confidence).

Extent depends a lot on the weather in the past couple of weeks of the melt season, so my "very high confidence" is a bit dubious.

The recent slow-down in extent drop is basically irrelevant, if not negatively correlated with the final extent, as was due to the low pressure system in the Beaufort spreading the ice out. At the same time, it basically wrecked it though.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: The Walrus on August 10, 2020, 06:44:59 PM
Move up to 4.0 - 4.5 as the melt seems to have slowed recently.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: jplotinus on August 26, 2020, 12:00:24 PM
As of 24 August, extent has moved down into the 3.75-4.25 range.
August 24th, 2020:
     4,236,622 km2
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Ktb on August 26, 2020, 12:18:04 PM
As of 24 August, extent has moved down into the 3.75-4.25 range.
August 24th, 2020:
     4,236,622 km2

Ergo, nobody is out of the running yet. Hypothetically speaking of course.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: gerontocrat on August 26, 2020, 01:29:14 PM
Dear Juan,
The average remaining extent loss to minimum is 0.52 million km2 in 20 days time.
The range of outcomes of the last 10 years remaining melt is 3.52 to 3.83 million km2.

Me? I plump for 3.5 to 4.0 million km2, or 3.7 to 3.8 million km2.

Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: oren on August 26, 2020, 01:33:27 PM
I think giving voters a 0.5 million km2 bin at this late stage is too generous.
Which is why voting closed on Aug 11...
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Paddy on August 31, 2020, 05:39:18 AM
And now the highest bin that people went for is excluded as we dip under the 4m mark at 3,995,083.
Those (like me) who went for the next highest bin may be getting a bit less confident, but the 3.5 to 4.0 bin looks pretty solid imho.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: DavidR on September 10, 2020, 06:11:14 AM
All bins above 3.75 are now knocked out and the 3.50 - 4.00 bin is definitely under threat. With about 8 days left to the average minimum there is just 87K to go to knock off that bin.

With very high temperatures across the Arctic, particularly above 80N, in August I  expect a late minimum rather than an early one is most likely and something around 3.40 as the likely minimum.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Paddy on September 16, 2020, 07:18:25 AM
So I think we can call this now. The 3.25 to 3.75 bin and the 3.5 to 4.0 bins were the correct ones - well done to those who made these predictions!
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on September 16, 2020, 04:30:49 PM
So I think we can call this now. The 3.25 to 3.75 bin and the 3.5 to 4.0 bins were the correct ones - well done to those who made these predictions!

50.8% of the votes were on those ranges. Congrats to the ASIF people!
But I want to say, it was close to be lower than 3.5M km2. We witnessed an impressive melting season!
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Aluminium on September 16, 2020, 06:01:49 PM
The Arctic is a strange place, sometimes unpredictable. Is minimum above 3.5? I'll wait a week to be sure.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Pagophilus on September 17, 2020, 03:25:13 AM
So I think we can call this now. The 3.25 to 3.75 bin and the 3.5 to 4.0 bins were the correct ones - well done to those who made these predictions!
Wisdom of the crowd.  The collective brain triumphs once again.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: charles_oil on September 25, 2020, 10:37:50 AM
Juan - could the first post - or even the poll itself - be edited to show the final result / winning "bins"?  If we look back in the future at this (or other polls), its quicker than scrolling through comments, especially if the result isn't the last one.


Thanks - again !
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: Juan C. García on September 25, 2020, 03:44:29 PM
Juan - could the first post - or even the poll itself - be edited to show the final result / winning "bins"?  If we look back in the future at this (or other polls), its quicker than scrolling through comments, especially if the result isn't the last one.


Thanks - again !

I am only able to quote the first post, so I will put the final result here.

The 2020 minimum is  3,554,798 km2, reached on September 13th.
The right bins are 3.50 - 4.00M and 3.25-3.75M km2.
Title: Re: JAXA 2020 Arctic SIE September daily minimum: August Poll
Post by: oren on September 25, 2020, 06:35:34 PM
Edited into the first post.