Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: Anonymouse on May 21, 2013, 07:22:34 AM

Title: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on May 21, 2013, 07:22:34 AM
For stories, links, etc. about what you are seeing, or what you are hearing about.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ccgwebmaster on May 21, 2013, 08:09:28 AM
I am wondering if everyone would like to have a thread that discusses the new(ish) and emerging weather weirdness.  A place to put ideas about things that might just be weird variations up to things that might be somewhat cause for concern.  If Neven is agreeable, things from sea ice to unusual clouds or animal movements would be welcome.  For example, it has been very windy in the last week where I live, and that is unusual for this time of year, at least the constant wind.  I worry that it will augment the drought we are in.
In short, what are you seeing in your own life that is starting to freak you out (if it hasn't already)?
What would be useful (or at least nice) is if some context was available - that puts the weather in the context of historic data, previous records, or statistical probability.

I feel somewhat cynical when people start to associate every weather event with climate change - it's too tempting and easy to fall into that track and somewhat like worshipping some arbitrary nature spirit. For example, I didn't think anything much about tornadoes in the US until I watched this:
Jeff Masters on Tornado Extremes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4XPt7xDrhA#ws)

The quoted probabilities (1 in 62,000 year and 1 in 3,000 year) made me sit up and take notice, as well as illustrating a hint of a climate change link.

I think it would also be educational to understand what the consequences of incidences of extreme weather are, especially in terms of:
- damage to infrastructure
- adverse agricultural aspect

With so much happening now, the media isn't especially informing (were they ever?). Seems to me there is the chance to crowd source interesting and useful information?
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anonymouse on May 21, 2013, 08:29:48 AM
This thread is not meant to be a peer-published thread, ccg.  Context is HELL YES useful and informative, but not required.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Artful Dodger on May 21, 2013, 01:51:32 PM
The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2Fb%2Fbd%2FMoore-2013-track-vs-1999.png&hash=e3374bad7c8690a62411e16c31e0c90a)

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 1014)

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.

Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: wili on May 21, 2013, 01:53:54 PM
Thanks to prokaryotes at cp for this link:

Humid air and the Jet Stream help to fuel more intense thunderstorms/tornadoes

http://climatestate.com/2013/05/21/humid-air-and-the-jet-stream-help-to-fuel-more-intense-thunderstormstornadoes/ (http://climatestate.com/2013/05/21/humid-air-and-the-jet-stream-help-to-fuel-more-intense-thunderstormstornadoes/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 21, 2013, 03:48:21 PM
Hi Anonymouse,

If it's "anecdotal" evidence you're after I first noticed (comparatively minor!) weather weirdness in my neck of the woods (the north coast of South West England) in the summer of 2008. Back then I described it as follows:

Quote
If you're a regular surfer off the coast of North Cornwall or North Devon you know in your bones that something is changing.

and I started blogging about it (http://econnexus.org/hurricane-hanna-helps-ecodriving-video/).

It was several years later when I discovered what happened to the sea ice in the Arctic in 2007. In between I'd started blogging about hurricane induced flooding in the Caribbean, not anticipating that 5 years later I'd also be blogging about hurricane induced flooding and power outages in New York City, as well as newly built flood defences being overwhelmed a few months later right here in Soggy South West England:

http://econnexus.org/tag/floods (http://econnexus.org/tag/floods)

If you're into that sort of thing you may also wish to check out:

http://econnexus.org/tag/storm-surge/ (http://econnexus.org/tag/storm-surge/) 

Jim
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ccgwebmaster on May 21, 2013, 05:25:56 PM
The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 1014)

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.
Lies, damn lies and statistics? I have a feeling if you moderate it by:
- the number of households in the USA
- the varying probability by region

Then you could produce a statistic that shows it isn't so massively improbable that it happens somewhere sometimes?

If there are 115 million households in the US the original figure of 1 in 10 million actually sounds questionable anyway - that would imply 12 houses destroyed for the whole of the US? (timescale unclear, one would tend to assume "over the lifespan of the housing stock" which would make tornadoes virtually never destroy a house - perhaps 1 house every 50/12 years?)

If the lifetime risk to be struck by lightning in the USA is 1 in 10,000 (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.htm (http://www.lightningsafety.noaa.gov/odds.htm)) and the population is over 300 million, I suppose the risk to be struck twice by lightning in a lifetime would be 1 in 100 million - and it would happen to slightly over 3 people in the course of their lives? (perhaps a bit less as clearly anyone who dies the first time is exempted from a second lightning strike)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: TerryM on May 22, 2013, 12:23:52 AM
A few strange things were noticed when I returned home to South West Ontario after a 40+ yr. hiatus.
The first, and most unnerving was finding that the Grand River no longer freezes through the winter. The local merchants used to have a huge bunch of prizes for whoever could guess the exact time that the ice would break just upstream of town. Since 2004 it usually freezes for a short period before melting again and will repeat this through winter months. The last two winters it simply never froze.
The second was hearing of tornado touchdowns in the area. We didn't used to be in Tornado Alley.
A third feature has been Thundersnow. I'm certain that if it had occurred I'd have noticed, but I don't have as much certainty of this as I do with the first two.
The year before last we had no winter. There was never a week when grass wasn't green. I'd grown to expect this in California - but this is Canada where I skied to school for years.


Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anonymouse on May 22, 2013, 03:55:54 AM
Hi Jim (and TerryM),
Yes, anecdotal stories are exactly the point!  There are a lot of heated arguments everywhere on the interwebs about "weather vs climate", scientists being very reticent in their opinions, etc.  It would be interesting to hear from everyone about what they are perhaps seeing with their "own lying eyes" so-to-speak.  :)  There seem to be more and more anecdotes from the olds about what is making them uneasy, and without badgering about proof or the scientific method, I wanted to create a thread for those of us who want to talk about it.  The youngs may find it interesting too.
Any links, analysis, and whatnot are of course very much appreciated. (ccg, Artful, and wili, thanks much.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Artful Dodger on May 22, 2013, 05:49:50 AM
I have a feeling if you moderate it by:
- the number of households in the USA
- the varying probability by region

Then you could produce a statistic that shows it isn't so massively improbable that it happens somewhere sometimes?

How long have you had these feelings?
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ccgwebmaster on May 22, 2013, 05:01:13 PM
How long have you had these feelings?
Since approximately May 21, 2013, 05:25:56 PM? (forum time)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ggelsrinc on May 23, 2013, 12:17:11 AM
I don't recall ever seeing severe storm related tree damage as much as last year and two events were about a week apart. I'm just basing that on the areas I saw and reflecting on an area I've been in contact with or lived in throughout my lifetime, so I wouldn't have missed an important event. Tornados are rare to touch down in this area, because it's a pennisula and other reasons. This damage was widespread and not caused by tornados. These were summer events.

I don't claim it's weird on a scale outside this area, because I've seen worse done in other areas in the South by storms packing tornados. The weirdest similar thing I've seen involved me flying down to Texas and driving back. The airliner experience extreme turbulence on the flight down and the pilot was telling us how he was adjusting course and altitude to keep the ride as pleasant as possible. When I arrived and called home, my wife told me about all these tornados that hit the South, but that happens and I didn't think about it until I left. Going home I had to travel a long distance east on I-10. I came to an area that I travelled through for hours where you could count about 20 yellow pine trees that were snapped in the middle. That area isn't a forest, but there are plenty of tall trees and there were plenty less after that storm. I didn't see signs of other damage, but they could have cleaned it up before I arrived. It wasn't like a tornado tore up trees along the ground, it's like a storm somehow generated winds that repeatedly snapped those trees in half and over a hugh area of land. It was an awesome site.

I was once in freezing rain so bad that everyone had to stop on the highway. I wanted to move my car, a fullsize 4 door sedan, off the highway and discovered I could push it off the road with one finger. The highways are sloped to the shoulders for drainage, but it surprised me that friction was reduced so much. It was hard to even stand.

This mid-Atlantic area of the US is definitely warmer than the way it was when I was a child. I try to make it a habit to follow the timing of the last frost in spring and it's earlier by about a week from what it was in this area. If you want to determine whether the growing season of an area has changed, ask the people who grow gardens and are serious about it or look at the frost record for the area. Serious gardeners want to be the first to harvest crops, but they don't want to have to fight frost to do it. They used to say if you can live here you can live anywhere, alluding to it being very hot in summer and cold in winter. In my younger days it was cold in the winter, but in the past decade plus, I remember times when summer seemed like it wouldn't end, winters that were so mild they were like the weather typically hundreds of miles to the South and early springs that fooled trees. The seasons used to be well defined and now they seem to get mixed up in this area and the changes are towards warming. Records get broken and those new records don't last for long. This may not be weird to someone who believes in global warming and it is only one area of the world, but my understanding is it's that way in many places and the people who have lived there know it's changed. I think everybody who has lived long enough in an area has some story about seeing climate change. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: wili on May 23, 2013, 04:10:41 AM
Thanks for these thoughtful reflections, gge. Perhaps it is the accumulation of stories and reflections like these that will ultimately have more force than all the science and modeling.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anonymouse on May 23, 2013, 10:44:27 AM
I would also like to add that J. Francis is one of the Cassandras next to Hansen that have a lot of credibility (in my humble opinion.)  Their analyses are startlingly precient and alarming.

Here is the latest:  Climate Change and Extreme Weather: Prof. Jennifer Francis (2013) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETpm9JAdfcs#ws)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: pdjakow on May 24, 2013, 10:06:54 AM
Europe still divided:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwstaw.org%2Fm%2F2013%2F05%2F24%2Fgfsanom_eu.png&hash=1c90b9c4185aa4b71ecf971af590a709)

GFS forecast.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Neven on May 24, 2013, 10:13:38 AM
Wow, what a beautiful image. Cold War is back!  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 25, 2013, 08:02:16 AM
The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 1014)

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.

i.e. 10X10^6 X 10X10^6 = 100X10^12

I don't think this is sound probability.

And scrolling down the thread I fin Ccgwebmaster has beaten me to it...
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 25, 2013, 03:21:20 PM
Yet another stationary front over the Midwest. Iowa and Illinois are getting hammered today with rain.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ggelsrinc on May 25, 2013, 11:32:19 PM
Thanks for these thoughtful reflections, gge. Perhaps it is the accumulation of stories and reflections like these that will ultimately have more force than all the science and modeling.

If someone wanted to make a documentary on climate change that would appeal to those who don't have much concern, they should find people from all over the Northern Hemisphere who have lived around an area long enough to witness the changes. Those "I used to raise reindeer, but now that the permafrost is melting, I'm digging up mammoth ivory" stories are something people can relate more to than the science. It's the farmers noticing changes who will convince others and the stories don't have to be that spectacular. The river that used to freeze and now doesn't is a good enough story. The farmer saying the growing season starts earlier or he can now plant crops that he previously couldn't plant is good enough. Stories requested by the OP are processed by the brain differently than scientific facts. People relate to other people's lives. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anne on May 26, 2013, 08:47:17 AM
If someone wanted to make a documentary on climate change that would appeal to those who don't have much concern, they should find people from all over the Northern Hemisphere who have lived around an area long enough to witness the changes. Those "I used to raise reindeer, but now that the permafrost is melting, I'm digging up mammoth ivory" stories are something people can relate more to than the science.

I thought so too until I took a sceptical friend to see Thin Ice. He was contemptuous of the part with the Saami, dismissing it as emotive anecdote, just old people yarning about how things were better in the good old days, things that couldn't possibly be proved. He thought it let the film down. He is a systems engineer so perhaps gives greater credence to science and logic than the average citizen.

I don't agree with him - on the contrary, I find these stories compelling - and I don't know how many people are like him, but it's as well to bear in mind that these personal stories won't resonate with everyone and may even be counter-productive by making some people feel that they are being emotionally manipulated.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Artful Dodger on May 26, 2013, 10:06:49 AM
i.e. 10X10^6 X 10X10^6 = 100X10^12

I don't think this is sound probability.

And scrolling down the thread I fin Ccgwebmaster has beaten me to it...
... or you could try Google (https://www.google.com/search?q=chances+same+house+destroyed+tornado+100+trillion)

ABC "Oklahoma Town Devastated by Tornado Razed Before in 1999 (http://abcnews.go.com/US/oklahoma-town-devastated-tornado-razed-1999/story?id=19226754)"
Quote
That same study put the odds of that same house getting hit twice at one in 100 trillion.
According to NOAA (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=events-20130520), Moore, Oklahoma was hit by an EF2 tornado in 1998. And hit again in 2003. Sound like a trend?

The point of using statistics is to identify events that are extremely unlikely to occur by random chance. If you reject that null hypothesis, then you accept that the event has an identifiably cause.

BTW, the study said the 1:100 trillion chance of a house being hit twice by an EF4 tornado. Both the 1999 and 2013 Moore tornadoes were EF5 scale events.

Want to compute the odds of that?

:P
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ggelsrinc on May 26, 2013, 11:06:20 AM
If someone wanted to make a documentary on climate change that would appeal to those who don't have much concern, they should find people from all over the Northern Hemisphere who have lived around an area long enough to witness the changes. Those "I used to raise reindeer, but now that the permafrost is melting, I'm digging up mammoth ivory" stories are something people can relate more to than the science.

I thought so too until I took a sceptical friend to see Thin Ice. He was contemptuous of the part with the Saami, dismissing it as emotive anecdote, just old people yarning about how things were better in the good old days, things that couldn't possibly be proved. He thought it let the film down. He is a systems engineer so perhaps gives greater credence to science and logic than the average citizen.

I don't agree with him - on the contrary, I find these stories compelling - and I don't know how many people are like him, but it's as well to bear in mind that these personal stories won't resonate with everyone and may even be counter-productive by making some people feel that they are being emotionally manipulated.

I believe the accumulation of the knowledge of anything becomes science and that includes how people respond and think. I know scientists can become focused on a project so much that other parts of their world become myopic. I believe our analysis of the human brain is sophisticated enough to bank on people hearing and gather more information from a personal story than raw data proving an analysis. If the language of science needs to be translated to human language to be understooed, then translate it and stop focusing on the limitations of humans to understand! Have a little faith and just because the deniers own that game of manipulation doesn't mean they own the title. There is a way to make the truth prevail.

I've never seen "Thin Ice", so I can't comment on it. I think I know enough about human nature to know you can't appeal to people with doomsday forecasts.

If it isn't clear, the reason I say I is it's a personal opinion of my knowledge of the subject. I try to form scientific opinions on the best data available and never let bias dictate the results. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 26, 2013, 02:20:41 PM
Regarding tornadoes, while there is evidence that global warming is increasing the frequency in the U.S. there is little to support there is an increase in severity.

Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ivica on May 26, 2013, 02:41:37 PM
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:
Tornadoes and Climate Change: Huge Stakes, Huge Unknowns (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2415). Posted: 4:05 PM GMT on May 23, 2013
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anne on May 26, 2013, 04:19:31 PM
Straying OT here...
I've never seen "Thin Ice", so I can't comment on it. I think I know enough about human nature to know you can't appeal to people with doomsday forecasts.
Thin Ice (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/04/thin-ice-the-movie/) is worth seeing. It's not a doomsday forecast type thing like Earth 2100 or the various apocalyptic BBC programmes about rising sea levels. It opens by asking if climate scientists can be trusted, and basically takes the viewer to meet them. Its thesis is that climate scientists are a diverse bunch from many disciplines who are committed to and passionate about what they do and far removed from the gravy-train liggers of denialist imagination. It proceeds by way of interview and description, and it's unstuffy and accessible.

Personally, I found the Saami testimony moving and convincing. I could imagine a documentary consisting of many such accounts (I know I know, the plural of anecdote =/=anecdata) like the National Geographic film of the man who makes a living from extracting mammoth tusks from permafrost (http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/04/125-mammoth-tusks/larmer-text), the Chinese ice-breaker Snow Dragon preparing for the polar route, and so on.

Anyway, back to the weird weather. The sun is shining here today. We had practically forgotten what it looked like.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ggelsrinc on May 26, 2013, 07:15:43 PM
Straying OT here...
I've never seen "Thin Ice", so I can't comment on it. I think I know enough about human nature to know you can't appeal to people with doomsday forecasts.
Thin Ice (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/04/thin-ice-the-movie/) is worth seeing. It's not a doomsday forecast type thing like Earth 2100 or the various apocalyptic BBC programmes about rising sea levels. It opens by asking if climate scientists can be trusted, and basically takes the viewer to meet them. Its thesis is that climate scientists are a diverse bunch from many disciplines who are committed to and passionate about what they do and far removed from the gravy-train liggers of denialist imagination. It proceeds by way of interview and description, and it's unstuffy and accessible.

Personally, I found the Saami testimony moving and convincing. I could imagine a documentary consisting of many such accounts (I know I know, the plural of anecdote =/=anecdata) like the National Geographic film of the man who makes a living from extracting mammoth tusks from permafrost (http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/04/125-mammoth-tusks/larmer-text), the Chinese ice-breaker Snow Dragon preparing for the polar route, and so on.

Anyway, back to the weird weather. The sun is shining here today. We had practically forgotten what it looked like.

I thought the purpose of discussing weird weather was to make a statement about climate change and I agree the personal imput will be more convincing to people than the science. I think most people have some story about their experience with climate change.

Where I live, there is no doubt to someone of my age that it is warmer than it once was. When I was a child, the winters were cold here and it could stay in the teens for weeks, even into my middle age period. It isn't that way now for what I call a decade plus which is closer to two decades. In my youth, the seasons in this area were well defined and now, for sometime, they aren't. My statement is more about climate than weather, but it took a lot of weird weather to make our climate change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: weatherintel on May 26, 2013, 07:35:48 PM
As an FYI - Oklahoma City is the 'Tornado Capital' of the world!  149 Tornadoes have touched down in the immediate vacinity of OKC since 1890 - with over 100 causing significant damage.  (Moore is technically within the 'city limits'). A fairly complete chart of these tornadoes (not including this year) can be found here:
   www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-okc-figure5 (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/?n=tornadodata-okc-figure5)

A 1 in 10 million chance of a home being struck by a tornado does NOT apply to OKC.  Just as the chances of being struck by lightning (1 in 7mil) does not apply to the state of Florida where 700 people/yr are struck.

SteveG
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anne on May 27, 2013, 10:41:34 AM
Here is a compelling essay in words, photo and video, just published on the Guardian site, about the the Tasmanian bushfire in January. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2013/may/26/firestorm-bushfire-dunalley-holmes-family)  It contains a lot of personal testimony from families and firefighters. The fire was "weird" because of its sheer ferocity.

Some points leapt out at me that are relevant to this thread:

The Australian summer of 2012-13 broke 123 weather records. Six of Australia's hottest summers have occurred in the past eleven years. On 4 January Hobart experienced its hottest day on record. The average summer sea temperature was more than half a degree above normal - all this in a year in which neither El Nino nor La Nina affected the weather.

Extreme temperatures increase fire risk, and also affect the way fires burn.  The Bureau of Meteorology's climate monitoring manager says that since 2003, experienced firemen have witnessed bare paddocks burn, meaning that fires spread fast even across land with a low fuel load.  One possibility is that in temperatures into the 40s centigrade organic material in the soil vaporises and then explodes. In Dunalley and at Medunna the fire leapt clean across two bays, crossing 3km of open water as if it wasn't even there. No one had seen this before.

The essay concludes with suggestions on how communities might adapt to live with fire risk, arguing that whatever is done about carbon emissions, people are already right now living with the increased and ever-present risk.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 27, 2013, 03:28:31 PM
As Chicago continues to have cold damp weather (most of the last 6 weeks), here is some weird weather for you.

http://local.msn.com/WeatherArticle.aspx?cp-documentid=258000341 (http://local.msn.com/WeatherArticle.aspx?cp-documentid=258000341)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: LurkyMcLurkerson on May 29, 2013, 02:39:31 AM
Just wanted to add that I find the anecdote vs. data-with-context thing sort of endlessly interesting as an exercise in how people think of the whole thing. I mean, we don't have a "control" planet that could possibly allow us to know whether particular events would have unfolded differently absent the current trajectory of the climate. Context is useful, but I've personally decided at this point that the idea that any event, any detail of the system, could possibly _not_ be effected in probably a bunch of different ways is likely silly.

Yeah, weird weather always happened, and probabilities can be teensy and still happen from time to time.

But what we're seeing at this point is weird all over the place at the same time, pretty much most of the time. And while you certainly can't say that it's clear, scientific evidence, it's also what most people actually live with and have hit home.

Here -- Sacramento, CA -- we just got through our driest winter on record, hardly a drop fell between late fall and early spring, which is generally most of CA's only wet season; we survive from May to October or so on the snow pack feeding our rivers, and the reservoirs we've built. If the reservoirs weren't reasonably full this year, we would be so screwed I don't even know how to express it; there would be no water. If next winter is anything like this one, we won't have enough water for most basic function, much less our ag.

It was cold, though. Unusually cold for here, on and off. We seldom get a very long freeze; we had several major, long, hard freezes this winter. And dry.

Spring here is also often fairly breezy, from time to time, but this spring has been the windiest in my memory, a cold, dry, north wind for sometimes weeks on end. Last summer, we got traces of what was essentially monsoonal moisture, wrapping back around from the east side of the Sierra -- a rare thing here, maybe once a decade -- it happened five times. It was humid in August. It's never humid here in August. Spring has felt more like August, not quite as hot but everything covered in dust and grime from no rain, and periods of intense heat mixed in with periods of strange, cold winds to advisory criteria.

Yesterday was rainy (a mere sprinkle, here) and chilly, and by the weekend, it may hit triple digits.

That's been sort of the overall picture, honestly, just a constant flipping between extremes. Everybody I know has noted it, it's a constant topic of conversation even with my many friends who don't pay much attention to any of it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Artful Dodger on May 30, 2013, 01:40:32 AM
As Chicago continues to have cold damp weather (most of the last 6 weeks), here is some weird weather for you.

Hi S.H.

Yes, it has been a remarkably swift turnaround in the upper mid West from record drought to record flooding.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEqQoY_X8nU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEqQoY_X8nU#ws)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ritter on May 30, 2013, 05:59:28 PM
Here -- Sacramento, CA --

Hey Lurky,

From the northern Bay Area, I'll second your observations. Weather these days is just plain off. The wind is horrible. I'm used to the marine influence winds, but this is different. As you say, days to weeks on end and temperatures all over the place. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anonymouse on May 30, 2013, 09:35:03 PM
Here is a link to a heartbreaking story describing the plight of a small village forced to relocate within the next COUPLE of years due to climate change.  A quote from one of the residents regarding strange patterns in animal behavior is right below the graph on the first page.

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/05/americas-first-climate-refugees-newtok-alaska?page=1 (http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/05/americas-first-climate-refugees-newtok-alaska?page=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 30, 2013, 11:15:41 PM
Violent thunderstorms with high winds, hail and tornadoes are firing up across the midsection of the U.S. from Texas to Wisconsin. The violent weather is forecast to continue for the next 4 days. This pattern has been unrelenting for the past two weeks as a blocking high continues to sit on the eastern seaboard.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: LurkyMcLurkerson on May 31, 2013, 02:32:17 AM
Here -- Sacramento, CA --

Hey Lurky,

From the northern Bay Area, I'll second your observations. Weather these days is just plain off. The wind is horrible. I'm used to the marine influence winds, but this is different. As you say, days to weeks on end and temperatures all over the place.

Yeah, the north winds have had a really weird quality that's almost impossible to describe. Been driving me crazy this year, though. Most of our weather and wind here is still fairly marine, usually, coming up the river from the north bay; the evening delta breeze is our savior all summer, we hope for it all afternoon when it hits triple digits here.

There were times earlier in this spring where that wind was so cold and dry I felt like my skin was going to peel off in sheets, and it would just go for days and days at ~30 mph, gusty to 40 here (but we have a lot of flat for it to play around with when it comes from north, unlike the bay.) Not enough to cause too much damage, but just... constant, cold, parching.

I've lived within an hour or so of here for most of my life, I've never experienced anything like this last 12 months here. It had already been weird for a few years, I garden a lot and any gardener will tell you it has been bizarre since somewhere around 2007, but this is just completely moreso, and I suspect we're in for a lot more dramatic weird coming soon.

I just really hope we get better snow next winter. I can't imagine what this place will all be like if we don't.

Shared Humanity (and etc) -- I've been watching the midwest weather, it's nuts out there. And yeah, nothing is moving. Good thoughts to everybody dealing with it right now, it's a long stretch to be so persistently full of big storms. Even without the tornadoes, flooding over formerly drought-stressed soils is going to be seriously rough on a lot of folks.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 31, 2013, 04:14:29 PM
At 57 years old, I have lived in the Chicago area for nearly 50 years. I am an avid gardener; urban ecosystems and organic gardening. Because of the early spring, I planted seeds about a week earlier than usual (May 9). Since then, we have had nearly continuous cold and wet weather. Much of the garden did not germinate (first time ever). I am going to have to reseed this weekend.

Here is a picture of last year's garden which required constant watering because of the drought.

Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: silkman on June 01, 2013, 03:03:49 PM
Here on the edge of the Peak District in the North of the UK it's warmed up a little (14C) today but we're weeks late in the vegetable plot, with everything still under cover.

Meanwhile in Murmansk it's 29C. Weird, but everything seems to point to this becoming the norm in the near term, thanks to the warming Arctic.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: John Batteen on June 01, 2013, 08:01:31 PM
Continued cold and wet pattern in Minnesota due to blocking high to our east.  I've seen the sun maybe three times in the last three weeks.  Some farmers still haven't been able to plant some of their land because it's too wet.  My friend has fungus problems with his tomatoes from continued cool, wet weather.  It's ugly.  If this keeps up it will be a year without a summer.  June is starting out with highs in the mid 60s, lows in the mid 40s!
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: weatherintel on June 01, 2013, 11:10:38 PM
For quite some time, I along with other collegues here in Chicago have been thinking this will be a summer more reminiscent of the 1980's.  Summers that never really stuck around, with numerous cold frontal passages and heavy T-storms ahead of them.  There is nothing in the ensembles, or ocean temp patterns that indicate any change for the next 3-4 weeks.  Indeed, La Nina has re-appeared over the past month (not offically, as it takes 3 straight months of ONI values beloww -0.5) but it's there for the moment.

Steve
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Neven on June 02, 2013, 11:47:55 PM
I'm a bit busy with other stuff than the world around me, but it's been raining here (on and off) in the southeast of Austria for quite a while now, and it seems to be the same for most of Europe. It's wet and feels cold for the time of year. I was in a place with a TV this evening and on the news it said that there's heavy flooding in Austria, Germany and the Czech Republic. It appears that some places in Germany are having their second Jahrhunderthochwasser (1-in-100-years flood) in one decade.

Can anyone who knows about weather put this in context/perspective?
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: icebgone on June 03, 2013, 03:21:56 AM
The polar jet and the subtropical jet are so weak and disorganized weather has become a regional disaster.  A blocking high in the Atlantic has formed early and further north than historical average.  Both central North America and Europe are wet and cold while western North America and eastern Europe are dry and hot with high fire danger.  Burn or flood seems to be the new weather and there is no change in the forecast future.  From a year without a winter to one without a summer back-to-back.  It's all about change.  I would not be surprised if we have an Atlantic hurricane that lasts for a month this year.



Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ClimateChange on June 03, 2013, 04:50:31 AM
As Chicago continues to have cold damp weather (most of the last 6 weeks), here is some weird weather for you.

http://local.msn.com/WeatherArticle.aspx?cp-documentid=258000341 (http://local.msn.com/WeatherArticle.aspx?cp-documentid=258000341)

Your perception has been skewed due to global warming. It may be very wet, but it certainly hasn't been cold in Chicago. It's been mild. May was 1.9 degrees above the "1981-2010 globally-warmed normal" (which is the warmest thirty year period in recorded weather history). April was 2.0 degrees below the "1981-2010 globally-warmed normal" (so a little cool based on the most recent 30 globally warmed years but nothing crazy). Since May has one more day than April, this would mean temperatures in Chicago have essentially average right around the "1981-2010 globally-warmed normal" since April 1st. March was colder than the "1981-2010 globally warmed normal," but nothing extreme compared to the historical record. There have been many Marches that were much colder. In the absence of global warming, this March likely would have been much colder too.

Note I refer to it as the "1981-2010 globally-warmed normal" because it's a misnomer to call the temperatures experienced over that period "normal" since they are by definition abnormal in the context of the longer temperature history, having been artificially inflated due to anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Laurent on June 04, 2013, 05:18:49 PM
Need water ?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/flooding-worsening-in-parts-of-germany-6-dead-in-europe-so-far-a-903396.html (http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/flooding-worsening-in-parts-of-germany-6-dead-in-europe-so-far-a-903396.html)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/merkel-pledges-50m-euros-to-aid-german-flooding-eZRk0OfOSJiia1Yh28lzXQ.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/merkel-pledges-50m-euros-to-aid-german-flooding-eZRk0OfOSJiia1Yh28lzXQ.html)

Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Neven on June 04, 2013, 05:29:41 PM
Passau, a Bavarian town where I have lived for 2 years, saw it's highest river level since 1509, the year of the Jahrtausendhochwasser (1000-year flood). So another 1000-year flood after 500 years. It's crazy to see how high the Inn and Danube are!
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: ritter on June 04, 2013, 05:51:19 PM
Much of the US Midwest has flipped from drought to flooding this spring. Here on the west coast, we are definitely descending into drought. If our reservoirs weren't in good shape from last year, we'd be in serious trouble. With a bit of luck, we'll get normal rainfall next winter.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: CraigsIsland on June 04, 2013, 07:47:25 PM
Much of the US Midwest has flipped from drought to flooding this spring. Here on the west coast, we are definitely descending into drought. If our reservoirs weren't in good shape from last year, we'd be in serious trouble. With a bit of luck, we'll get normal rainfall next winter.

Drought Monitor product for May 28th, 2013: (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdroughtmonitor.unl.edu%2Fdrmon.gif&hash=9d92a7a54d027e081eb47bca51a5aa54)

Drought Outlook in PDF: http://www.drought.gov/media/eventfiles/National%20Drought%20Outlook%20May%202013%20FINAL%205%2015%202013.pdf (http://www.drought.gov/media/eventfiles/National%20Drought%20Outlook%20May%202013%20FINAL%205%2015%202013.pdf)

Nice blog entry from Wunderground's Dr. Ricky Rood if some people haven't paid attention to what has happened recently in the US: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=265 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/RickyRood/comment.html?entrynum=265)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: LurkyMcLurkerson on June 05, 2013, 12:07:34 AM
Neven, I only just am catching up on world news for the last few days, the flooding in Passau and elsewhere in the region looks _awful_. Flooding like that can cause so much damage, and now I hear there are at least 12 or so confirmed dead. Very sad. Best wishes to all folks there in it.

Meanwhile, here in California's interior, we're now forecast to hit somewhere between 105 and 115 this coming Saturday, in early June. That's 15 to 25 degrees above normal for this time of year; if it works out as predicted, records will not just be broken, they will be gutted and left to die by the side of the (hot, dusty) road. I'm genuinely worried for our homeless and our elderly or otherwise vulnerable folks. Usually, when it's that hot, at least the city establishes public "cooling stations" for people -- a surprising number of folks here have no air conditioning.

And in the gardening vein, my tomatoes will undoubtedly have to stop flowering for a while -- they can't maintain it for long with temps above 95 F. While my possibly lower tomato yields this year are mostly devastating only for my taste buds (Good lord, not the Black Krims! Take my Early Girls, take my Lemon Boys, but nature, you're playing dirty with my heirlooms!), I also worry more seriously about farmers in that kind of heat -- quite a few crops will be impacted at that level of hot, and farmworkers here often drop like flies when it gets up that high, out working in the sun, sometimes with too few breaks for water.

If nobody notices me lurking about for a while, I've probably locked myself in my freezer and won't be out until fall. :P
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: mati on June 05, 2013, 03:44:45 AM
hehe it was 4 C last night here in Central Ontario Canada (around lat 45 degrees)
200 km to the north in Timmins they had snow... in JUNE...
I have yet to put my plants out due to frost warnings.
total opposite from last year
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Anonymouse on June 06, 2013, 11:20:19 AM
I recently stumbled upon a VERY LARGE powerpoint authored by a meteorologist by trade, courtesy of Motherjones.com

 http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change (http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/06/one-meteorologistss-come-jesus-moment-climate-change)

Stu Ostro's focus is on extreme weather events, and he does talk about sea ice and how it has impacts on weather etc.  My favorite quote [sic] : "Climate is a book, weather is the chapters."  He has a great sense of humor and also draws lines between extreme weather since 2005. 
Warning: this powerpoint is 61.70 MB.

http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/StuOstro_GWweather_latestupdate.pdf (http://i.imwx.com/web/multimedia/images/blog/StuOstro_GWweather_latestupdate.pdf)


EDIT: He will be speaking along with Jennifer Francis today at Climate Desk Live.
http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/04/climate-desk-live-climate-change-extreme-weather (http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2013/04/climate-desk-live-climate-change-extreme-weather)

Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: pikaia on June 06, 2013, 12:04:28 PM
Temperatures in Pakistan have been over 50C, with no respite expected for another month when the monsoons are expected to arrive.

http://www.trust.org/item/20130604105605-6fcrq/?source=hptop (http://www.trust.org/item/20130604105605-6fcrq/?source=hptop)

Here in Liverpool 25C is a heat wave, and I find 35C hard to take, so anything over 50 doesn't bear thinking about.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: wili on June 07, 2013, 01:02:00 AM
Wow, that's hot!

Meanwhile, the first named tropical depression has hit Florida and is currently very visible (and beautiful, in its own way) on the wind map:

http://hint.fm/wind/ (http://hint.fm/wind/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: birthmark on June 07, 2013, 01:21:29 PM
Wow, that's hot!

Meanwhile, the first named tropical depression has hit Florida and is currently very visible (and beautiful, in its own way) on the wind map:

http://hint.fm/wind/ (http://hint.fm/wind/)
Andrea put down a lot of rain here in my part of Florida. It's unusual but not unheard of for a tropical system to hit FL for this time of year.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Laurent on June 12, 2013, 11:20:03 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o4NJkkrYmk&feature=player_embedded# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o4NJkkrYmk&feature=player_embedded#)!
http://denver.cbslocal.com/2013/06/12/homes-continue-to-burn-in-black-canyon-fire/ (http://denver.cbslocal.com/2013/06/12/homes-continue-to-burn-in-black-canyon-fire/)
Oouaou, that's hot !
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Jim Pettit on June 13, 2013, 06:55:23 PM
Alaska--well, parts of it--are going to be a little toasty for a while. The official word:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
930 PM AKDT WED JUN 12 2013

...RECORD SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...

WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS ARE INDICATING A MASSIVE WARM AIR SURGE
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA BEGINNING FRIDAY. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER MOST ALL OF MAINLAND ALASKA FRIDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE TO BUILD STRONGER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY THING THAT MAY BREAK UP THE HEAT FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR
WOULD BE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC COAST
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK UP AGAIN
ON TUESDAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY...IT APPEARS THAT MANY LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN ALASKA WILL CLIMB WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S AND SOME AREAS
WILL CROSS OVER INTO THE LOWER 90S THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS SHOW
NO RELIEF IN STORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...BUT
LIKELY WELL BEYOND THEN GIVEN THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO
REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Jim Pettit on June 13, 2013, 06:58:15 PM
Oouaou, that's hot !

The Black Forest fire is now the most destructive in Colorado history, having destroyed nearly 400 homes, with many more in peril--and the fire is still burning wildly out of control. Notable: the previous most destructive fire in Colorado history was the Waldo Canyon fire, which happened just 11 months ago.

"Oouaou" indeed...  :-\
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 21, 2013, 10:46:52 AM
http://www.thelocal.ch/20130502/hail-and-heavy-rain-hit-parts-of-suisse (http://www.thelocal.ch/20130502/hail-and-heavy-rain-hit-parts-of-suisse)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on June 21, 2013, 05:40:27 PM
Why NASA’s latest photo of Alaska is freaking people out. (http://www.seattlepi.com/national/article/Why-NASA-s-latest-photo-of-Alaska-is-freaking-4612565.php#page-1)

“The same ridge of high pressure that cleared Alaska's skies also brought stifling temperatures to many areas accustomed to chilly June days. Talkeetna, a town about 100 miles north of Anchorage, saw temperatures reach 96°F on June 17. Other towns in southern Alaska set all-time record highs, including Cordova, Valez, and Seward. The high temperatures also helped fuel wildfires and hastened the breakup of sea ice in the Chukchi Sea.”
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 22, 2013, 04:06:52 AM
Before and after photos of current flooding in Alberta, Canada.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/before-after/alberta-floods/ (http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/before-after/alberta-floods/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 22, 2013, 09:31:34 AM
Also in France :
http://www.euronews.com/2013/06/20/orange-alert-for-france-while-spain-clears-up-flood-damage/ (http://www.euronews.com/2013/06/20/orange-alert-for-france-while-spain-clears-up-flood-damage/)
Oouaou it's wet !
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on June 22, 2013, 11:26:44 AM
Nadym in Siberia had snow on June14th, the day after temperatures hit 30C:

http://www.euronews.com/nocomment/2013/06/15/heavy-snow-blankets-the-siberian-town-of-nadym/ (http://www.euronews.com/nocomment/2013/06/15/heavy-snow-blankets-the-siberian-town-of-nadym/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on June 22, 2013, 01:16:19 PM
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis (http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/earth-insight/2013/jun/21/shale-gas-peak-oil-economic-crisis)

Another 'read between the lines' article. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 23, 2013, 12:14:04 AM
Thanks, Anonymouse, that's a great article on the bubble. I had read about this with regard to the Bakken fields some time ago.

Maybe a bit OT.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: wili on June 23, 2013, 01:54:24 AM
Back-to-back damaging wind storms in the upper midwest. Many neighborhoods near me were inaccessible because there were so many trees down in the roads. Hundreds of thousands without power, many probably for many days.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ivica on June 23, 2013, 09:35:51 PM
Collection of media video reports on youtube Extreme Weather Events and Earth Changes (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rs5mTkLs6jo&list=PLzTBx4FCLduS2ZzHNsNTK8uqpWWcDCp-O) covers period 2013-01 ... 05.
Possible that will continue with June ...

More (putting aside off-topics there) on FIDOCKAVE213 channel (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NibZt1w6uPo&list=UU6Ck6N7gRst7qwkXdapbLaQ).
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on June 24, 2013, 02:35:41 AM
Lynn,
sorrry for the late reply, I agree the article is a bit OT, and thanks for the reminder :).  I should have posted the link elsewhere.
As penance, I offer another article. The flooding in Calgary has been news for nearly a week now, but the kicker line for me was this: 
          "The provincial government says this is the worst flooding in Alberta history. There are   
            now 25 communities that have declared a local state of emergency."

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Live+blog+Alberta+Floods+2013/8550481/story.html (http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Live+blog+Alberta+Floods+2013/8550481/story.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on June 24, 2013, 03:04:05 AM
ivica,
Regarding your first link, sad to say that it seems to me these are not signs of the end, but the beginning, but YMMV. The sooner these events are seen as global instead of just local, the better.  Terrible things have always happened, but (this tends to be my refrain) the frequency, the SPEED, of this global change and the apparently increasing number of events being reported is what interests me. 
I cannot discount that the increased reach of global communications over the past decade or so have been tremendous, and that we might now be hearing about events that may not have reached the local news in earlier times.  What is worrisome is that they all seem to be news because they are so unusual in their respective areas.
Thank you for the links, they are very welcome on this thread (if Neven allows  :-\).  Stories and narratives are how humans generally process information. And the human narrative might be useful.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 24, 2013, 04:10:51 AM
"Or other stories about climate change" really does leave this thread wide open, doesn't it? Financial speculators trying to make a killing from crop failures is a story and a half!
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on June 24, 2013, 04:57:48 AM
Lynn,
Ayup.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 28, 2013, 03:29:48 PM
All this flooding in Calgary Alberta has caused damage that will take a whole decade to fix, costing Canadian taxpayers across the country billions. Is it ironic that this is the home province of the Tar Sands? Is it ironic that the footings of a rail bridge were unseated and a train derailed on it, carrying fluids that at first were reported as unknown, but now it's come out they were petrochemicals used in extracting oil from the tar sands?
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/06/26/f-climate-change-flooding-weather-preparation.html]
[url]http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2013/06/26/f-climate-change-flooding-weather-preparation.html (http://[url)[/url]

"Canada is currently the only G8 country where people cannot buy insurance for overland flooding. Private insurers cover sewage backup, but won't offer flood protection because the small population base of Canada means it's difficult for the companies to cover the cost of their risk. As a result, provincial and federal governments foot the bill for large-scale floods, meaning all taxpayers are on the hook.
"We all agree that there is a new reality now, which is climate change," said Canadian Federation of Municipalities president Claude Dauphin. "Unfortunately, those that have to pay the bills are taxpayers or property owners."
A 2010 report by the insurance industry’s Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction recommended that Canada adopt the United Kingdom model — where the private sector offers flood insurance on the condition that the federal government take steps to mitigate disaster."
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 29, 2013, 04:06:40 AM
I live in beaver country on the Canadian Shield. Interesting that this ecologist points to global warming in his presentations to landowners and townships on managing beavers and the flooding that happens when their dams unexpectedly break down. This story was printed in our tiny independent newspaper this week:

Weather variability is increasing. There are two major causes. First, there is more heat energy in our lower atmosphere. Second, that increase in energy causes increased evaporation of water. That puts more water into the atmosphere and that water carries all the energy that caused it to evaporate. More water and more energy means more energy-filled rain storms.

The variability that we are seeing is much greater than variability in weather of the previous several decades. Engineers are beavering along with outdated handbooks and formulas based on those previous lower variability decades. At the same time, beavers have been multiplying and their engineering has not accounted for the more severe rain storms that we see now and will continue to see.

Hundred-year floodplain maps are now outdated. If you have structures on the 100-year floodplain, plan on being threatened and probably flooded much more often, possibly at 20 or even 10-year intervals rather than 100-year. If the culvert under your road is too small for the heavy rainstorms, prepare for a washout. Don't let the beavers stack up a huge volume of water above the culvert and expect increased costs to bring culverts and bridges up to higher flow capacities.

Gray Merriam, Ph.D., D.Sc., Professor Emeritus in Landscape Ecology and Environmental Science, has published over fifty scientific papers and chapters in international journals and volumes.

http://www.specialplaces.ca/discovering-natural-processes-beauty-in-natures-ways/gray-merriam/ (http://www.specialplaces.ca/discovering-natural-processes-beauty-in-natures-ways/gray-merriam/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: mabs on June 30, 2013, 04:27:41 AM
This happened in April, but for some reason is only now being reported in the media. "Freak Afghan hailstorm grounded scores of NATO helicopters"http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/27/freak-afghan-hailstorm-helicopters (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/27/freak-afghan-hailstorm-helicopters).

And in some form of poetic justice...

Quote
The half-hour storm in late April split rotor blades, cracked windows, ruptured the choppers' metal skin and damaged other parts. The hail was so intense that after an intensive repair programme eight of the choppers were still inoperable more than three weeks later, according to a NATO spokesman.

They say that hailstorms are not unprecedented, but it seems that the only recent such incident they could cite happened some.... 1000 years ago.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: RaenorShine on July 01, 2013, 08:41:40 PM
The Climate Show has a new episode up.

The Climate Show 34: Four Hiroshima bombs a second (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iKK8Xc-N_oA#ws)

Always a good summary of current climate news stories with a slight NZ slant with Gareth Renowden, John Cook (Skeptical Science) and Glen Williams.

Includes segments on the weird jet stream effects in the Northern Hemisphere, The Consensus project and also an interview with Bill McKibben (350.org).
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: wili on July 02, 2013, 12:50:13 AM
Thanks for that, RoS. Do you have a linky for that video??
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on July 02, 2013, 08:29:16 AM
Here you go:
http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-climate-show-34-four-hiroshima-bombs-a-second/ (http://hot-topic.co.nz/the-climate-show-34-four-hiroshima-bombs-a-second/)
All the links to video, audio & all the show notes are there.

Also includes a interview with Bill McKibben.

Yes only a teeeensy Australasian slant, just the accents & the sports banter.
:-)
Clare
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: RaenorShine on July 02, 2013, 12:00:36 PM
Thanks Clare for passing the link on.  It's on my must watch Youtube channels, The climate stories raised are usually global (and discussed well) even if the banter isnt  ;D
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 03, 2013, 12:46:50 AM
And a "smoke advisory" from Weather Canada in rural southeastern Ontario – from the Arizona fires!
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 03, 2013, 03:14:16 PM
Might be from all the fires in Quebec and Ontario too.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on July 03, 2013, 03:25:43 PM
Canada fires in the 48 hours to July 3 2013 from MODIS.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 04, 2013, 02:48:46 AM
You're both correct. Yesterday I phoned my neighbour who's on the volunteer fire department to see if he knew about the fire that was causing the weather report to say 'local smoke'. His wife said it was Arizona fires, but I think that was just her best guess. I've since found out about the fires north of us.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on July 04, 2013, 05:35:09 PM
Some links to wildfire maps.

The US  (click on "Open full map")

http://www.esri.com/services/disaster-response/wildlandfire/latest-news-map (http://www.esri.com/services/disaster-response/wildlandfire/latest-news-map)

another one

http://fires.globalincidentmap.com/home.php (http://fires.globalincidentmap.com/home.php)

Global maps

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/ (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/)

a REALLY cool one (click anywhere for enlargement) check Siberia.  There is no one to put these fires out.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/firemaps/firemap.2013171-2013180.4096x2048.jpg (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/firemaps/firemap.2013171-2013180.4096x2048.jpg)

Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on July 07, 2013, 12:10:47 AM
More than a foot of hail hits a New Mexico town, despite the heat wave:

http://www.weather.com/news/two-feet-hail-new-mexico-town-20130704 (http://www.weather.com/news/two-feet-hail-new-mexico-town-20130704)



Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on July 09, 2013, 01:28:19 PM
Perhaps not that weird or extreme, but there's a chance Ireland could top 30C today, an occurrence that generally happens less the once per decade at official stations. What's interesting now, is that it seems likely to going to happen despite below average SSTs all around the country.
The last time we reached 30C+ was in July 2006, so a less than once in a decade warmth could occur twice in 8 years during the next few days.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: wili on July 09, 2013, 02:31:20 PM
http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/dramatic-photos-show-parts-of-toronto-underwater-1.1358806 (http://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/dramatic-photos-show-parts-of-toronto-underwater-1.1358806)

Parts of Toronto Under Water; Nearly 1 Million Without Power
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 09, 2013, 09:16:54 PM
And the people of Calgary and Toronto continue to repeat "It is just the weather not climate change. Sell more tar sands"
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 09, 2013, 10:00:48 PM
And the people of Calgary and Toronto continue to repeat "It is just the weather not climate change. Sell more tar sands"

Not this Canadian, thank you very much. We have a prime minister who's as much in the pocket of the oil biz as Bush II was. The trouble with this country's political system is sort of the opposite of the US's, which has only two parties to choose from that aren't even different enough. We have three more or less liberal-to-left parties that divide up the non-right-wing vote, so we wind up electing a conservative party even though they got far from half the popular vote.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on July 09, 2013, 10:08:25 PM
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_976_en.html (http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/pr_976_en.html)
GENEVA 3 July 2013 - The world experienced unprecedented high-impact climate extremes during the 2001-2010 decade, which was the warmest since the start of modern measurements in 1850 and continued an extended period of pronounced global warming. More national temperature records were reported broken than in any previous decade, according to a new report by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 09, 2013, 10:25:12 PM
Lynn,
Unfortunately all parties with official status in parliament have policies which actively promote tar sands development and don't have policies which discourage mining and burning coal. They represent the vast majority of people who bothered to vote.

We have only our collective selves to blame.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 10, 2013, 03:26:58 AM
We have only our collective selves to blame.

In general, I heartily agree. Some of us are a bit touchy on the subject of the tar sands.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Artful Dodger on July 10, 2013, 04:06:21 AM
We have only our collective selves to blame.

In general, I heartily agree. Some of us are a bit touchy on the subject of the tar sands.
Uh, no. Unless you have forgotten this: (there are actual culprits. Ones you did not elect)

Senate vote to kill Climate Act disrespects Canadians and democracy (http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blogs/panther-lounge/2010/11/senate-vote-to-kill-climate-act-disrespects-canadians-and-democracy/) from the David Suzuki Foundation, November 19, 2010.

 :-[
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 10, 2013, 03:13:30 PM
Thanks Lodger. I cave too easily when up against the wall.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Artful Dodger on July 10, 2013, 04:01:07 PM
Thanks Lodger. I cave too easily when up against the wall.
de nada, Lynn.

Never forget, it's the fossil fools that run this scam. Toronto is a clean, progressive City. Now if there was just some way to clean up Bay Street (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_Street)...

The only way to win is not to play. (divest (http://divest350.org/))  8)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 10, 2013, 04:44:41 PM
Toronto could be better. Say, if it didn't have Rob Ford for Mayor.
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/06/20/rob_ford_crack_scandal_police_chief_bill_blair_could_say_more_experts_say.html (http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2013/06/20/rob_ford_crack_scandal_police_chief_bill_blair_could_say_more_experts_say.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 10, 2013, 05:23:43 PM
Slightly encouraging, after my depressed post yesterday, several media outlets included coverage of how the extreme rain events are expected to be more frequent because of climate change. First step to recovery is to stop denying.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: CraigsIsland on July 19, 2013, 06:44:04 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wildfire-warning-heatwave-death-toll-as-high-as-760--and-farms-at-risk-8716639.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wildfire-warning-heatwave-death-toll-as-high-as-760--and-farms-at-risk-8716639.html)

760 people thought to have been killed after six straight days of 30C heat in UK
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on July 19, 2013, 06:58:05 PM
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wildfire-warning-heatwave-death-toll-as-high-as-760--and-farms-at-risk-8716639.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wildfire-warning-heatwave-death-toll-as-high-as-760--and-farms-at-risk-8716639.html)

760 people thought to have been killed after six straight days of 30C heat in UK
People (not on this forum) keep commenting that 30C is nothing compared to some parts of the world, and indeed it isn't. But it's not what we are used to here in the UK (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-23341698). Our houses aren't built to screen the sun; most people don't have air conditioning. Nor are their bodies accustomed to such constant high temperature. So it takes its toll on human physiology - and indeed on infrastructure. (Emergency treatment to melting tarmacadam (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-23375423), railway misery.) (http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-heatwave-tube-passengers-sweat-it-out-in-hot-weather-as-temperatures-exceed-34c-to-beat-bali-8716893.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Vergent on July 19, 2013, 08:50:18 PM
Anne,

Those temperatures are quite dangerous, if humidity is high! Activity needs to be limited. Here is a link to a Navy publication on heat stress.

http://www.public.navy.mil/navsafecen/Pages/acquisition/heat_stress.aspx (http://www.public.navy.mil/navsafecen/Pages/acquisition/heat_stress.aspx)

Here, you can find the actual protocol and limits  for activity it is in chapter B2(about 60% of the way down):

http://doni.daps.dla.mil/Directives/05000%20General%20Management%20Security%20and%20Safety%20Services/05-100%20Safety%20and%20Occupational%20Health%20Services/5100.19E%20-%20Volume%20I%20Part%20I.pdf (http://doni.daps.dla.mil/Directives/05000%20General%20Management%20Security%20and%20Safety%20Services/05-100%20Safety%20and%20Occupational%20Health%20Services/5100.19E%20-%20Volume%20I%20Part%20I.pdf)

Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ClimateChange on July 20, 2013, 01:05:10 AM
http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/grass-fires-break-out-in-london-as-heat-wave-bakes-britain-394575 (http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/grass-fires-break-out-in-london-as-heat-wave-bakes-britain-394575)

Grass fires breaking out, as epic heat wave rages on in England. I read that the death toll is up to 900 now. A lot of the articles are describing the heat wave as unexpected and surprising, I wonder if the deniers don't bear some of the blame for these deaths. They have been harassing the Met Office for years over its BBQ summer forecasts when climate-change caused unexpected heavy downpours and flooding in each of the past few summers. Now England is getting another true BBQ summer, like 2003 and 2006, and people are once again dieing!

These deniers don't seem to understand that rain and flooding does not equal cold. Call me when a summer is in the bottom 10% of the CET temperature, and then we'll start talking about AGW being false.

Wunderground shows no relief in sight, with temperatures between 27 and 32C for the next ten days in London!
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on July 20, 2013, 07:47:21 PM
Vergent,

Yes, absolutely humidity is a big aggravating factor. It's too facile to quote temperature tout court, but that's the media for you. It's always humid here in the UK. Today at home, where it hasn't rained for over three weeks, it is 60% according to our gimcrack home weather station.

BTW, your tagline made me laugh when I checked the translation. It's what they call dark humour.  Are you really from Iceland?
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on July 27, 2013, 03:45:55 PM
Unusual Siberian heat.  I note from the article that Norilsk has had a record high of 90 F (and also a record low of minus 90 F).  Yikes! 


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/26/siberia-heat_n_3660212.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/07/26/siberia-heat_n_3660212.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2013, 05:23:20 PM
Weather Underground’s weather historian Christopher Burt’s blog entry on July 22 about the current Russian heat wave:

Quote
The extraordinary and perhaps unprecedented heat wave continues in the central arctic region of Russia. Some locations have now endured 10 consecutive days above 30°C (86°F). Wildfires are erupting in the taiga forests (see more about this in the comments section following this blog). Norilsk maximum daily temperatures have cooled down a little, but yesterday (July 23rd) it enjoyed its warmest night so far with a low of 20.2°C (68.4°F).

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=177 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=177)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2013, 06:48:17 PM
Now that cooler temps have finally arrived, we’re reviewing the mid-July heat wave that hit the US.  A high pressure dome of hot air sat over the eastern part of the country for over a week -- much like what happened in the UK recently. 

As expected with global warming, more records were set with “highest lows” than with “highest highs.”  While 134 record-high temperatures were recorded, 716 records for highest overnight minimum temperatures were also felled or tied. 

A record stretch of 30 days with lows in the 70s (21°C) or higher ended July 25 in Philadelphia.

http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/mid-july-heat-wave-bakes-the-us-from-coast-to-coast-16276 (http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/mid-july-heat-wave-bakes-the-us-from-coast-to-coast-16276)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 27, 2013, 07:41:49 PM
And while Siberia is baking, South America has record cold outbreak that reached almost to the equator in the Amazon basin.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=178 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=178)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: John Batteen on July 27, 2013, 11:05:35 PM
We're flirting with record overnight lows here in Minnesota and Wisconsin today and tomorrow.  High temps in the 60s, overcast and blustery.  If I didn't know better I'd say it was late September.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: wili on July 28, 2013, 03:22:24 AM
Yep, it's supposed to get down to 45F here in Minneapolis tonight. More jet stream oddities?
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2013, 04:20:25 PM
Also this "drunken weather pattern":  weather systems moved in reverse -- east to west -- across the southern US during the recent heat wave.

Quote
While heat waves during July are nothing new, the weather pattern that is creating this one is rare enough for meteorologists to take note. In addition to the Bermuda leaving its more tropical locale and camping out in Michigan, an area of low pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere has also been roaming the U.S. since July 11, drifting from east to west, traveling from the Mid-Atlantic states to Texas, where it brought some welcome rainfall.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/drunken-weather-pattern-leads-to-deadly-heat-16260 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/drunken-weather-pattern-leads-to-deadly-heat-16260)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2013, 07:43:01 PM
Yesterday, a relatively mild cold front with some training rain storms brought the most rain ever in a single day to Philadelphia (Pennsylvania, USA).  Goes to show that it no longer requires a hurricane to dump unbelievable amounts of rain, in a very short time.

Dr. Jeff Masters of Weather Underground writes:

Quote
Philadelphia sets its all-time single day rainfall record
An incredible deluge of 8.02" of rain hit Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on Sunday, breaking the all-time one-day rainfall record for the city. The previous record of 6.63" was set on September 16, 1999 during Tropical Storm Floyd. With a further round of rain after midnight in Philadelphia (bringing the 24-hour record storm total to 8.27”), July has brought 13.25” of precipitation to the City of Brotherly Love. This surpasses the previous July monthly record (since 1872) of 10.42” set in 1994. The wettest month on record for Philadelphia remains 19.31” in August 2011. Yesterday's deluge is an astonishing rainfall total for a location with such a long period of record, considering that it occurred without the benefit of a tropical storm being present. Remarkably, 6.46" of the rain fell in just 3 1/2 hours.

ICYMI, here’s a video from a reporter in his car caught by a mud slide in Colorado Springs.  The area is suffering from repeated flooding and mudslides, being located at the base of the canyon which had a devastating wildfire last year. (Note: expletives not deleted.)  Teachable moment: when he admits there were cars stopped on the highway in front of him....

http://gazette.com/multimedia/video/2538781681001 (http://gazette.com/multimedia/video/2538781681001)


Colorado Springs Office of Emergency Management put together some tips on how to prepare, ahead of time, for sudden flooding, likely to become a model for others:

http://m.gazette.com/side-streets-dont-become-a-colorado-springs-flood-victim-heed-these-tips/article/1504027 (http://m.gazette.com/side-streets-dont-become-a-colorado-springs-flood-victim-heed-these-tips/article/1504027)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ivica on July 29, 2013, 08:22:58 PM
Now, now ... :o

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.estofex.org%2Fforecasts%2Ftempmap%2F2013073006_201307291347_3_forecastupdate.xml.png&hash=7b3d06a049faa23b40402b498c471bc6)

Level 3 is maximal level, read more at European Storm Forecast Experiment (http://www.estofex.org/).
Take care
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: prokaryotes on July 29, 2013, 08:28:41 PM
I guess this belongs here..


Dramatic Global Flash Flooding, Hurricane Force Gusts in Mexico - July 27/28 2013  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKjwpmaD0HY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKjwpmaD0HY)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2013, 05:15:52 PM
More on the Philadelphia rain event, from a tweet from Philly meterologist Glenn Schwartz:  “Amazing 7.35" in 4 hours between 3 & 7pm. Calculated at more than a 1 in 1000 year event, according to NWS. And not even a tropical system!”

(With global warming, that means another episode in, what, 5 to 10 years?   ;)  )

Weather Underground makes the point that the heavy rain was highly localized at the PHL airport.  The blog also discusses the current heat waves in China and Europe.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=179 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=179)


Heat up to 41°C (106°F) in multiple provinces in China caused the China Meteorological Administration to issue a level two emergency response for the first time.
“Several provinces are suffering through a drought as the heat wave continues to scorch a wide swathe of land where flooding is usually the problem during the rainy season.”
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/800330.shtml#.Ufj2AFK9Kc2 (http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/800330.shtml#.Ufj2AFK9Kc2)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 02, 2013, 05:50:49 AM
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/01/2388931/record-start-to-extreme-weather/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/01/2388931/record-start-to-extreme-weather/)

Halfway Through 2013, The 5 Worst Extreme Weather Events Show The Damage Is As Bad As Ever

Quote
In the past two years, the U.S. has suffered an onslaught of extreme weather, including storms, floods, drought, heat, and fires. The 25 most damaging events took a combined 1,100 lives and caused $188 billion in damages. Seven months into 2013, this year doesn’t look to be much better.

Climate-fueled extreme weather continues to warrant evacuations, burn homes to the ground, and turn towns into pools of debris across the United States. As of July 30, there were 37 presidential disaster declarations, excluding fire management assistance and drought, in 2013.

AON Benfield – a world reinsurance broker that reports on the most damaging extreme weather events every month – estimates that extreme weather, like snow storms, flooding, hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, caused at least $32 billion in economic damages in the U.S. so far in 2013, which doesn’t take into account continuing drought that caused an estimated $30 billion in damages last year.

These storms ravaged the country, taking lives, destroying homes and businesses, and reshaping landscapes. With another five months left, here are the worst weather events so far in 2013:

1. Heavy snowstorms follow sporadic winter weather Winter Storm Nemo and other blizzards...

2. Historically large tornadoes slam the Midwest The first severe twisters came unseasonably early in January 2013, pounding the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Midwest with $350 million in damages. On May 20th Moore, Oklahoma, was flattened by a killer tornado, causing 24 fatalities – including 9 children. The tornado also caused $2.5 billion in damages. A week later a violent $2 billion tornado outbreak swept through Arkansas, Illinois, Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma with more than 80 tornadoes. This system included yet another historically rare EF-5 tornado that passed through El Reno, Oklahoma. It may have been the widest tornado ever recorded, and was responsible for 27 deaths...

3. Heavy rains and flooding inundate farms, cities, and roadways In April

4. Severe drought and heat waves continue through the South and Southwestern U.S. Increasingly dry southwestern states continue to battle conditions that remain from the Great Drought of 2012. In Texas, a state that suffered $11.9 billion in drought-related losses since 2011, Texas Governor Rick Perry extended his 2011 declared drought emergency this June, citing a “historic” and “imminent threat to public health, property, and the economy.” It is expected to continue through 2013.

5. Wildfires scorch homes and take lives As of July 30, over 2 million acres have burned in 2013 as a result of over 27,000 U.S. wildfires. In fact, every state except Hawaii has had three or more wildfires this year..
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2013, 04:09:50 PM
To quote @TheTweetOfGod:
“The bad weather will continue until the climate improves.”
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 02, 2013, 06:55:42 PM
Arsenic dust!

Here is a weird effect that I had never heard of until I read this article.  Of great interest to me since I live about 15 miles from Dewey.  Here in Prescott we have perfect water except for the need to filter it for natural arsenic levels to get the down to healthy limits (I hope they have the numbers right).

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-global-warming-is-spreading-toxic-dust (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-global-warming-is-spreading-toxic-dust)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 02, 2013, 07:05:53 PM
Australia 2013 is blisteringly hot

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/2013-shaping-up-to-be-one-of-australias-hottest-years-on-record-20130730-2qvly.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/2013-shaping-up-to-be-one-of-australias-hottest-years-on-record-20130730-2qvly.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 05, 2013, 05:15:21 PM
It is cold in the south of Brazil !

http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2013-07/24/content_29514331.htm (http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2013-07/24/content_29514331.htm)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on August 05, 2013, 07:40:42 PM
Austria recorded it's hottest day on record two days ago: 39,8° C (old record was 39.7° C, July 1983). The part where I'm living has had 5 weeks of temps around 30° C, with swings to 37-38° C, and hardly any rain. Farmers are unhappy.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on August 05, 2013, 08:06:14 PM
Greenland had its highest recorded temperature of 25.9C at Maniitsoq on July 30.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 06, 2013, 08:02:38 PM
A second hail storm has cut a swath through Bordeaux, destroying virtually the entire crop of around 100 producers.
http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2013/08/second-hail-storm-ravages-bordeaux/ (http://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2013/08/second-hail-storm-ravages-bordeaux/)

Around 4000 to 5000 hectares have been wrecked !
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 08, 2013, 09:51:21 AM
Some high drought in Namibia !

Namibia Faces Worst Drought in 14 years (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NIGFduapGPo#ws)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/18/us-namibia-drought-idUSBRE96H0B820130718 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/18/us-namibia-drought-idUSBRE96H0B820130718)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on August 08, 2013, 09:28:49 PM
Austria recorded it's hottest day on record two days ago: 39,8° C (old record was 39.7° C, July 1983). The part where I'm living has had 5 weeks of temps around 30° C, with swings to 37-38° C, and hardly any rain. Farmers are unhappy.

Incredible, the record was broken again today and went from 39.9° C to 40.5°C (one place even recorded 40.6° C, but not confirmed yet)! We started building our house today in 39.6° C. My wife is doubting whether we picked the right place. I said to her: where would you like to go? This is happening everywhere. 20-30 years from now this is an average summer. We have to get prepared.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Vergent on August 08, 2013, 09:52:02 PM
Austria recorded it's hottest day on record two days ago: 39,8° C (old record was 39.7° C, July 1983). The part where I'm living has had 5 weeks of temps around 30° C, with swings to 37-38° C, and hardly any rain. Farmers are unhappy.

Incredible, the record was broken again today and went from 39.9° C to 40.5°C (one place even recorded 40.6° C, but not confirmed yet)! We started building our house today in 39.6° C. My wife is doubting whether we picked the right place. I said to her: where would you like to go? This is happening everywhere. 20-30 years from now this is an average summer. We have to get prepared.

I suggest putting in a crop of Agave.

V
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: OldLeatherneck on August 08, 2013, 09:56:59 PM
Austria recorded it's hottest day on record two days ago: 39,8° C (old record was 39.7° C, July 1983). The part where I'm living has had 5 weeks of temps around 30° C, with swings to 37-38° C, and hardly any rain. Farmers are unhappy.

Incredible, the record was broken again today and went from 39.9° C to 40.5°C (one place even recorded 40.6° C, but not confirmed yet)! We started building our house today in 39.6° C. My wife is doubting whether we picked the right place. I said to her: where would you like to go? This is happening everywhere. 20-30 years from now this is an average summer. We have to get prepared.

I suggest putting in a crop of Agave.

V

With a good crop of Agave, Neven could start distilling and distributing "Austrian Tequila."  Who said that economic growth was impossible??
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on August 08, 2013, 10:02:59 PM
With a good crop of Agave, Neven could start distilling and distributing "Austrian Tequila."  Who said that economic growth was impossible??

It is indeed true that a large part of economic growth is making people addicted to all kinds of stuff, like sugar, white flour, coffee, alcohol, drugs, medication, entertainment, TV, gadgets. This results in a sick society, in my view the biggest impediment to solutions.

A sick mind, in a sick body, in a sick society.

Sorry for the off-topic. We've just started building our eco-passive-blahblah-house today, and I'm already depressed by the uselessness of it all.  :'(
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on August 08, 2013, 10:59:40 PM
Sorry for the off-topic. We've just started building our eco-passive-blahblah-house today, and I'm already depressed by the uselessness of it all.  :'(

If it gets you through the bottleneck, who's to say it's useless? Some of us may survive for a while. Might as well be comfortable!
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on August 10, 2013, 09:27:00 PM
Neven
Sorry for the off-topic. We've just started building our eco-passive-blahblah-house today, and I'm already depressed by the uselessness of it all. 


I know of no one who has done more to enlighten the masses about the dangers we face in the near future. The fact that governments by and large are not acting in a reasonable manner isn't something you of I have much control over.
Until I found your blog I had no idea what was causing the weather I was experiencing. I googled through every denier site on the internet trying to find something that made sense and whose arguments were coherent. Since then, thanks to you, I've educated myself & the product of that education is not comforting, but I much prefer having a somewhat gloomy realistic view of the future to wearing blinders as we approach the cliff.
Your eco-friendly home may not make much of a difference in the larger scheme of things, but you can sleep knowing that you tried & that your blog and forum have influenced huge numbers of people around the globe.
If anyone is around in a hundred years to keep track of those who made a difference your name will be remembered and revered. Not a terrible legacy IMHO.
Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on August 10, 2013, 11:27:42 PM
Thanks, Terry, that's nice of you to say.

For the time being I'm happy that the heat wave in Austria is over.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Phil on August 10, 2013, 11:33:38 PM
just one thought, Neven. Eco friendly houses use sometimes more light materials than classic ones. Unfortunately, extreme weather seems to require more hardened buildings. so, wood/straw/"pisé" often choosed for their thermic properties could be at risk. But i guess a smart guy like you has already pondered this question. 

Anyway. Hundred reasons for thinking that the game is quasi over, but we have nothing else to do than stay on the fence. Any little improvment that we could initiate, momentum we could impulse, enlightment we could offer, are of extraordinary importance.

All the best for you and yours projects, Neven.

(sorry for my broken french-english... :) )
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on August 10, 2013, 11:42:14 PM
A big concrete bunker would definitely be better, but it takes a lot more energy to build (forgot the exact number, but it was 10 times or more), and I just couldn't bring myself to do that. We originally wanted to buy an old place and renovate it, but just couldn't find the right spot after 3-4 years of looking, and so we opted for the eco-passive-blahblah-house (with a lot of DIY).

BTW, if all goes well, I will probably start a second blog to describe what we've done. There's some funny/interesting stuff there, but we have to wait and see how things work out.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2013, 04:11:23 PM
Neven

.....Sorry for the off-topic. We've just started building our eco-passive-blahblah-house today, and I'm already depressed by the uselessness of it all.  :'(

Hey!  Leave that stuff to us old guys.  That's our turf!  We depend on you young guys to keep the enthusiasm levels up.  Just keep charging on.

BTW  what do the neighbors think of your undertakings?
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 11, 2013, 04:56:50 PM
I think the long term trend for human habitation will be to go underground where temperatures move towards the seasonal and/or yearly averages, depending on depth. In Tucson, Arizona, swamp coolers (stored water underground with air circulated over this cool water through the house) are the preferred method of cooling your home so long as you've built the typical southwest home.

Back on Topic: Chicago is completing its 2nd straight week where temperatures have been consistently in the high 70's. (Sorry for Fahrenheit but I am a stubborn American.) The long range forecast is for this weather to continue through the end of August. This fixed manner of weather is becoming increasingly common and high 70's in August are amazingly cool.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on August 11, 2013, 06:07:10 PM
SH
Swamp coolers & similar systems are amazingly efficient wherever the climate is dry. As humidity increases they become less and less useful.
Wonderful in Tucson, useless in Toledo.
Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 12, 2013, 03:09:59 AM
SH
Swamp coolers & similar systems are amazingly efficient wherever the climate is dry. As humidity increases they become less and less useful.
Wonderful in Tucson, useless in Toledo.
Terry

Terry...yes, I realize this. I brought up the issue of swamp coolers to demonstrate the advantage of burrowing underground for human habitation as our climate warms.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on August 12, 2013, 04:48:12 AM
Terry...yes, I realize this. I brought up the issue of swamp coolers to demonstrate the advantage of burrowing underground for human habitation as our climate warms.

Good luck burrowing underground to practice agriculture though...
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 12, 2013, 05:56:56 PM
Terry...yes, I realize this. I brought up the issue of swamp coolers to demonstrate the advantage of burrowing underground for human habitation as our climate warms.

Good luck burrowing underground to practice agriculture though...

Maybe we can genetically engineer mushrooms so they are a source of vitamins and minerals.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Vergent on August 12, 2013, 06:14:23 PM
Terry...yes, I realize this. I brought up the issue of swamp coolers to demonstrate the advantage of burrowing underground for human habitation as our climate warms.

Good luck burrowing underground to practice agriculture though...

Maybe we can genetically engineer mushrooms so they are a source of vitamins and minerals.

That will also help solve the solid waste problem.

V
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2013, 06:23:36 PM
I've been in a (reconstructed) Basketmaker tradition subterranean abode when outside temperatures were >50C. It was cool, dry and comfortable even though the floor was less than 2 meters below ground level.
The Iroquois used a similar technique in the north to escape the winter cold.
In most regions I'd think that moisture could prove a problem. Groundwater is difficult to keep out & condensation has to be dealt with.
If I was faced with long term survival in the desert I'd be inclined to give it a try, but other regions probably need other solutions. There must be a reason that the concept hasn't been used very often in very many areas.
Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on August 12, 2013, 06:44:44 PM
There must be a reason that the concept hasn't been used very often in very many areas.

Cost? Of excavation and structurally working with the surroundings. Plus only suitable in some locations for any number of possible reasons, which you touch on.

Personally I think having at least a portion of a building underground to benefit from the relative thermal stability of the ground is a good idea in principle - just not a long term answer to escaping conditions that have become intolerable or empirically non viable for human survival, for the primary reason identified - too much other stuff has to continue on the surface.

If one is being cynical - we've done it before to good effect - we just called our dwellings "caves".
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on August 13, 2013, 06:48:33 PM
The extreme heat affecting China has moved into Japan, which has broken its temperature record with 41.0C.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 14, 2013, 02:11:05 PM
May be the opening of a sinkhole is part of the climate change !?
http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/summer-bay-resort-guests-recount-escaping-sinkhole/nZMQW/ (http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/summer-bay-resort-guests-recount-escaping-sinkhole/nZMQW/)
If I understand the baseground of florida is made with lime, that can be washed away by underground water...especially if the sea level rise !?
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on August 14, 2013, 02:19:15 PM
Record heat wave bakes Canada's North
Temperatures 10 degrees above normal across Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories

Historically high heat over the past week has led to broken temperature records in all three northern territories but residents aren’t complaining.

Temperatures across Canada’s three territories have been about ten degrees above normal this week.

In some communities, like Kugluktuk, Nunavut, it’s been even more remarkable: yesterday, it set temperature records for the sixth consecutive day on Tuesday, hitting 29 degrees Celsius.


More here http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/08/13/north-weather-heat.html (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/08/13/north-weather-heat.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 14, 2013, 02:34:52 PM
Typhoon Utor lashes Hong Kong (and Philipines again)
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/08/201381413915928828.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2013/08/201381413915928828.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 14, 2013, 05:28:31 PM
May be the opening of a sinkhole is part of the climate change !?
http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/summer-bay-resort-guests-recount-escaping-sinkhole/nZMQW/ (http://www.wftv.com/news/news/local/summer-bay-resort-guests-recount-escaping-sinkhole/nZMQW/)
If I understand the baseground of florida is made with lime, that can be washed away by underground water...especially if the sea level rise !?

It is my understanding that the geologic process that forms those sink holes is, in general, very slow in human terms.  Some take thousands of years to form.  Experts have indicated that the rate that sinkholes are forming in Florida has not changed significantly over the time humans have been living there.  They are formed primarily by surface water percolating down through the limestone bedrock and dissolving it.  This forms a cavern which eventually collapses. Pumping ground water can speed the process as well as very heavy rainfall.  Sea level rise is not likely to effect this as the area where the sinkholes are most common is far from the ocean and among the highest ground in Florida.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 14, 2013, 09:38:38 PM
Record heat wave bakes Canada's North
Temperatures 10 degrees above normal across Yukon, Nunavut and Northwest Territories

Historically high heat over the past week has led to broken temperature records in all three northern territories but residents aren’t complaining.

Temperatures across Canada’s three territories have been about ten degrees above normal this week.

In some communities, like Kugluktuk, Nunavut, it’s been even more remarkable: yesterday, it set temperature records for the sixth consecutive day on Tuesday, hitting 29 degrees Celsius.


More here http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/08/13/north-weather-heat.html (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2013/08/13/north-weather-heat.html)

Meanwhile, in Chicago we are completing our third straight week of unseasonably cool weather. It got down to 57F last night in the middle of August! Forecasts expect this weather to persist through the remainder of August.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on August 15, 2013, 10:46:49 AM
This story about 1 million square kilometres of flooding in Yakutia (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/08/14/a-song-of-flood-and-fire-one-million-square-kilometers-of-burning-siberia-doused-by-immense-deluge/) is sobering.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: SteveMDFP on August 15, 2013, 05:48:42 PM
This story about 1 million square kilometres of flooding in Yakutia (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2013/08/14/a-song-of-flood-and-fire-one-million-square-kilometers-of-burning-siberia-doused-by-immense-deluge/) is sobering.

More than sobering.  Somewhat terrifying.  I found the following passage worrisome:
Quote
In some of these wildfires, there are reports coming in that fires burn as far as 3 feet into the ground, taking out root systems and stumps along with the trees that burn above ground. Reports of burning ground have also been trickling in

When permafrost thaws in dry areas, overlying vegetation provides some insulation and probably reduces net carbon release to the atmosphere.  CO2 emissions, I believe, predominate.

Burn off that vegetation and insulation decreases, surface erosion increases, and permafrost melt surely accelerates.  Add water to saturate the thawing permafrost, and emissions shift to methane instead of CO2.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: deep octopus on August 15, 2013, 07:17:15 PM
Record daily low of 38 F this morning in the small town of Bradford, Pennsylvania. Much of the US is in the 60s right now, at mid-day. Very depressing for August! Lots of people are loving this "taste of autumn" weather though. My immune system and psyche beg to differ. Oh well, different strokes for different folks. And meanwhile, the taiga is on fire. Fairbanks, Alaska has had a warmer August (not anomaly, but actual temperature) than Los Angeles so far. Weird, weird year.
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on August 20, 2013, 11:15:00 PM
Here is a link to weather underground, a very heartwarming piece about how the most recent long-term drought is affecting the availability of water in the Colorado River in the US southwest.  In the paragraph titled "Causes," loss of Arctic sea ice is explicitly referenced.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2495 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2495)
Title: Re: Weird Weather or other stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 22, 2013, 12:55:02 AM
Aerosol cooling in the US:
The "Warming Hole" (a cool spot surrounded by much higher temps) over the southeast US may be due to sulphates pollution from coal power plants.  But the cooling effect is diminishing as pollution has declined significantly in the last few decades due to the Clean Air Act.
earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77966 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=77966)

NASA’s SEAC4RS airborne mission is probing this puzzle.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/seac4rs_2013.html
 (http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/seac4rs_2013.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ivica on August 23, 2013, 12:19:45 AM
Simply amazing :o

Extreme Dam Flood Waters Typhoon Trami - 颱風潭美石門水壩 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFQTDuFecLw#)
"Shiman Dam in Northern Taiwan releases gargantuan fountains of flood waters on August 22, 2013, after Typhoon Trami dumped over 300 mm (11.81") of rain in 24 hours."
Source: Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog:     
Chinese Floods Kill 250 During Past Week: Earth's 4th Deadliest Disaster of 2013 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: AndrewP on August 25, 2013, 08:06:05 PM
I am wondering if everyone would like to have a thread that discusses the new(ish) and emerging weather weirdness.  A place to put ideas about things that might just be weird variations up to things that might be somewhat cause for concern.  If Neven is agreeable, things from sea ice to unusual clouds or animal movements would be welcome.  For example, it has been very windy in the last week where I live, and that is unusual for this time of year, at least the constant wind.  I worry that it will augment the drought we are in.
In short, what are you seeing in your own life that is starting to freak you out (if it hasn't already)?
What would be useful (or at least nice) is if some context was available - that puts the weather in the context of historic data, previous records, or statistical probability.

I feel somewhat cynical when people start to associate every weather event with climate change - it's too tempting and easy to fall into that track and somewhat like worshipping some arbitrary nature spirit. For example, I didn't think anything much about tornadoes in the US until I watched this:
Jeff Masters on Tornado Extremes (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-4XPt7xDrhA#ws)

The quoted probabilities (1 in 62,000 year and 1 in 3,000 year) made me sit up and take notice, as well as illustrating a hint of a climate change link.

I think it would also be educational to understand what the consequences of incidences of extreme weather are, especially in terms of:
- damage to infrastructure
- adverse agricultural aspect

With so much happening now, the media isn't especially informing (were they ever?). Seems to me there is the chance to crowd source interesting and useful information?

There is no long-term trend in tornado frequencies in the U.S. In addition, a number of papers suggest that U.S. tornado frequency is likely to decrease with climate change, not increase. So the rare event you are referring to may have occurred in spite of, not because of, climate change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ivica on August 25, 2013, 08:28:55 PM
I'm not able to find mention of this article on ASIF, so:
"Tornadoes, Extreme Weather And Climate Change, Revisited (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/05/21/2040221/tornadoes-extreme-weather-and-climate-change-revisited/)" by Joe Romm on May 21, 2013.

Quote
So it may simply be that the data is simply is too confused by the reporting practices for analysis to draw any strong conclusions. That doesn’t mean the question shouldn’t be asked or that scientists shouldn’t give their best answer.

In general I do think it’s best to avoid statements like “global warming is to blame for” or “global warming caused” or “this is evidence of global warming,” especially in regards tornadoes.
...
In short, we ain’t seen nothing yet. Or, as one commenter put it:

    “Mother nature is only warming up.”
...
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: AndrewP on August 25, 2013, 08:33:23 PM
The U.S. National Weather Service estimates the chances of an American's home being destroyed by a tornado as 1 in 10 million.

On May 3, 1999 a home in Moore, Oklahoma was destroyed by an F4 tornado. The owner subsequently rebuilt on the same site.

On May 20, 2013 that rebuilt home was destroyed by an (est'd) EF4 tornado.
track-vs-1999.png[/img]

The chances of this occurring randomly? 1 in 100 Trillion. (1 : 1014)

That's not just 'weird'. That's suspicious.

First of all 1 in 10 million seems a bit low to me. That would suggest only 10 homes are destroyed each year. Annual average losses are $5 billion, although much of that is probably minor property damage. But I would have guessed than the number of homes 'destroyed' would be on the order of 100-1,000 per year. Let's say 100. Probably 10X that in Oklahoma, which would be 1 in 100,000 homes per year.

Over a 60 year period, this would be 60 in 100,000. The probability of being hit twice would be 3,600 in 10,000,000,000 or ~4 in 10,000,000.

The probability of not being hit twice in Oklahoma in that time period is 9,999,996 in 10,000,000.

If there are 2 million homes in Oklahoma, the probability that none of them being hit twice during that time period is (9,999,996/10,000,000)^2,000,000 or .45.

This means that the probability that over 60 years the probability of at least one house being hit twice in Oklahoma is 55%.


Of course these are a lot of rough estimates, and the population of Oklahoma was no where near what it is today 60 years ago. But this very rough estimate should give you some idea of the order of magnitude of this probability.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 25, 2013, 08:44:49 PM
I hate those general statistical statements, because they rarely include the time period. I'm guessing this one left out "on any particular day."

I know someone who just moved out of OK both because so many major tornadoes had hit near her house in the last few years, and because the heat and drought had gotten so bad. I wonder if anyone is trying to count these kinds of 'silent climate refugees.' (She is also well read on GW, and had concluded that OK was not a good place to be, long term.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 25, 2013, 10:09:39 PM

There is no long-term trend in tornado frequencies in the U.S. In addition, a number of papers suggest that U.S. tornado frequency is likely to decrease with climate change, not increase. So the rare event you are referring to may have occurred in spite of, not because of, climate change.

Actually, there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S. although there is no evidence that AGW is the cause.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 25, 2013, 10:13:39 PM
There is, however, no evidence of an increase in the severity of tornados.

Even the increase in frequency is not certain. There have been major advances in our ability to identify tornados and there is some indication that the increase in reporting of F0 and F1 tornados may be due to this.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 25, 2013, 11:38:24 PM
IIRC, what has changed is the time when tornadoes hit. Bigger and bigger tornadoes are hitting earlier and earlier. And I think their distribution may be changing, showing up in places where they had hardly ever struck before. But, yeah, the overall severity and frequency had not changed much. GW increases frequency of things that interrupt tornadoes even as it increases conditions that promote them, so it's kind of a wash (again, iirc).
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: AndrewP on August 26, 2013, 02:27:03 AM

There is no long-term trend in tornado frequencies in the U.S. In addition, a number of papers suggest that U.S. tornado frequency is likely to decrease with climate change, not increase. So the rare event you are referring to may have occurred in spite of, not because of, climate change.

Actually, there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S. although there is no evidence that AGW is the cause.

Numerous studies have attributed this rise to better detection. I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

Studies are inconclusive regarding tornado frequency with some suggesting slight increases or decreases. I think the majority is leaning towards a slight decrease at this point.
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 26, 2013, 05:51:06 PM

Numerous studies have attributed this rise to better detection. I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

Studies are inconclusive regarding tornado frequency with some suggesting slight increases or decreases. I think the majority is leaning towards a slight decrease at this point.

If you had read my 2nd comment, you would have noted that I indicated an improvement in detection might explain the increase in frequency. This is particularly so since most of the increase in frequency is in F0 and F1 tornados (also noted in my post).
Title: Re: Weird Weather
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 26, 2013, 06:05:03 PM
I did not say that there is no trend in "detected tornadoes." I said there is no rise in actual tornadoes.

I also did not say that there was a definite rise in actual tornados. I said that "there are trends that suggest an increase in tornado frequency in the U.S."

You may want to read a commenter's post more carefully before working to refute a statement not made.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on August 26, 2013, 09:14:38 PM
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 26, 2013, 10:02:05 PM
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.

It is remarkable that the use of "actually" or "however" is evidence to you that a person is disagreeing with a comment you have made. In fact, if you had read each of my very short posts, you would have noticed I was not disagreeing with anything you were saying but merely adding some information that could form a basis for continuing a discussion.

The first post was all of one sentence long and accompanied by a graph.

The second post was three sentences long and accompanied by a second graph.

I come here (most often lurk) because I have found this site to be an excellent source of information that can help me better understand AGW. I also believe that having different commenters, far more knowledgeable than I, argue their particular perspectives is very useful as I can begin to grasp where consensus exists and where uncertainty about the science is still present.

Having read many of your posts, I consider you to be one of those individuals who I might learn from and hope that you continue to argue forcefully in support of your perspective.

Looking for an argument or manufacturing a disagreement where none exists is an entirely different matter and not really very useful in furthering a discussion.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on August 26, 2013, 11:23:44 PM
I said "There are no trends in tornado activity"

You said "Actually, there are trends which suggest there is."


That sounds like you are disagreeing with my true statement and implying the trends are realistic.

If you want to get really technical, I never said that you said there is a real trend. I just re-emphasized that I said there is not. When you start posts with "Actually" and "However" people are going to assume you are disagreeing with the content of their post.

It is remarkable that the use of "actually" or "however" is evidence to you that a person is disagreeing with a comment you have made. In fact, if you had read each of my very short posts, you would have noticed I was not disagreeing with anything you were saying but merely adding some information that could form a basis for continuing a discussion.

The first post was all of one sentence long and accompanied by a graph.

The second post was three sentences long and accompanied by a second graph.

I come here (most often lurk) because I have found this site to be an excellent source of information that can help me better understand AGW. I also believe that having different commenters, far more knowledgeable than I, argue their particular perspectives is very useful as I can begin to grasp where consensus exists and where uncertainty about the science is still present.

Having read many of your posts, I consider you to be one of those individuals who I might learn from and hope that you continue to argue forcefully in support of your perspective.

Looking for an argument or manufacturing a disagreement where none exists is an entirely different matter and not really very useful in furthering a discussion.

Perhaps I misinterpreted it, but it very much read as disagreement to me. Part of the internet I guess.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 27, 2013, 03:40:50 AM
Quote
NZ: Warmest winter since records began -1800's

New Zealand has experienced one of the warmest winters since records began in the mid-19th century, a climate expert says.

This year has brought on unseasonably warm temperatures during late July and throughout August, with an average 9.5C.

The normal average during this time is 8.3C.

Climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger said this winter had been one of the warmest since records began in the 1860s, with temperatures normally expected in spring and early summer coming a month early.

"September-like temperatures have been occurring throughout August, giving the country its warmest winter and August ever," Dr Salinger said.

Before this year, the warmest winter was in 1998, when an average 9.3C was recorded.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11114280 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11114280)

Comment from the New Zealander, "yeahbut," who shared this link with me on another blog:

"It really has been crazy warm this winter, I haven't bothered lighting the fire hardly at all. This comes on the back of one of the hottest and driest summers ever for NZ."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 27, 2013, 07:36:26 PM
Big dust storms and heavy rain and flooding in AZ

The haboobs have always occurred but the frequency has increased a lot in recent years.

http://weather.aol.com/2013/08/27/watch-massive-dust-storm-blows-through-phoenix/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl8%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D364076 (http://weather.aol.com/2013/08/27/watch-massive-dust-storm-blows-through-phoenix/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl8%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D364076)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 27, 2013, 10:20:06 PM
Haven't they gotten bigger, too?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 27, 2013, 10:31:53 PM
Inondations au Pakistan official (http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x12paqi)
An other flood in Pakistan, 1,5 million people have been hit !
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: oztralian on September 06, 2013, 04:49:51 AM
Firstly, I would like to say hello to everyone.  I stumbled upon this site yesterday and thought I'd post my observations.  I've been living in Western Australia for 12 years now.  I've noticed that for the past 2 years, our summers have been not only unusually hot, but we've also had quite a few humid days, which is very unusual, as it's never humid in summer here.  The beach was always rather cold, but for the past 2 years, it has felt warmer than usual.  I'm not saying this is all climate change related, but I have spoken to a few locals who have been living here longer than I have, and while they say they don't believe in global warming, they did say that  the climate has changed.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Vergent on September 06, 2013, 05:46:00 AM
Oztralian,

Welcome to ASIF. You do not have to believe in physics to be subject to it's laws.

Vergent
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ivica on September 07, 2013, 06:30:11 AM
Pacific Island Nations Tell The World ‘Climate Change Has Arrived’ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/06/2584501/pacific-island-nations-world-climate-change-arrived/) by Jeff Spross on September 6, at Thinkprogress.
Quote
“Climate change has arrived,” and the world must act. That’s the message from fifteen nations in the southwestern Pacific, who signed a statement yesterday calling on other countries to join them in “the urgent reduction and phase down of greenhouse gas pollution.”
The most vulnerable - the Marshall Islands, Kiribati and Tuvalu - have already serious problems with any type of weird weather, and add tides to that.

Kiritimati - Christmas Island Documentary - Between Sky and Ocean (27 min)
Kiritimati - Christmas Island Documentary - Between Sky and Ocean (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXrZ-k333aw#ws)
'Sinking' paradise, eh. Why am I, as 45N dweller, so much attracted by such southern places...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: oztralian on September 07, 2013, 07:01:49 AM
Yes indeed, Vergent.   I see wave height in this area has increased by over a metre since 1985.

My favourite beach, (which normally has relatively small--to no waves,) had freakishly huge/dangerous waves crashing to the shore on several occasions last summer.  I have never seen anything like that before.
Title: NSIDC closed due to severe weather
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 12, 2013, 06:45:10 PM
Slightly weird spelling, but does this count as weird weather?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-24068804)

Quote
Flooding from a fast-moving storm in Colorado has killed two people and led to the evacuation of hundreds of homes.

Many roads are closed because of high water and debris, preventing rescue crews from reaching the stranded.

Up to 7in (17cm) of rain fell in three hours in the Boulder area on Thursday morning, the third day of rain.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: deep octopus on September 13, 2013, 12:25:51 AM
Absolutely insane rain in Boulder. Goes beyond simply "weird" and into a realm of its own, IMO.

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/09/12/colorado-deluge-could-be-classified-as-a-1000-year-event/#.UjI-jD9ASko (http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/imageo/2013/09/12/colorado-deluge-could-be-classified-as-a-1000-year-event/#.UjI-jD9ASko)

Quote
Colorado Deluge: “Could Be Classified as a 1,000-Year Event”

The Satellite Blog of the Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies has just posted some dramatic remote sensing imagery of the continuing deluge here in Colorado. And in the explanation of what’s been happening, the author of the post, Scott Lindstrom, concluded that the extraordinary amount of rainfall we’ve experienced here in the Boulder area “could be classified as a 1,000-year event.”

Make no mistake about it: The rainfall has simply been astonishing — upwards of 12 inches in less than 24 hours in some locations near Boulder. And it has caused quite a bit of devastating flooding, as well as two deaths in this area, and another one further south.

snip
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on September 13, 2013, 01:32:19 AM
The flooding of the Amur River in Russia and China began a month ago and is expected to continue for several weeks, when temperatures will fall to freezing, causing more problems. The river level has been two metres above its previous record and expected to rise another metre. The satellite photos show the enormous extent of the flooding.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/10/2597341/historic-flooding-russian-chinese-border/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/10/2597341/historic-flooding-russian-chinese-border/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: mabs on September 13, 2013, 05:46:33 AM
What is going on in Colorado is ... epic. What makes it even scarier is that they had no warning. No one had seen it coming. The Weather Channel is my background noise these days (if I hear one more thing about Syria I minght punch a small, fluffy, furry thing  >:() and I saw no forecast for "rainfall of biblical proportions." It could basically happen anywhere at any time.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: deep octopus on September 13, 2013, 06:35:10 PM
Quote
@EricHolthaus Its official: Record flooding on the Big Thompson River, near Loveland Colorado. #Boulderflood http://1.usa.gov/19P3t8n (http://1.usa.gov/19P3t8n)  (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpic.twitter.com%2FRVxCirGSgR&hash=f5e694ae2fd13a4969685ea576e10df6)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 13, 2013, 06:36:06 PM
Well, Intellicast.com is sure misrepresenting recent rainfall in the US West!  Denver/Boulder Colorado is getting lots of rain - on the order of 12 inches this week.   Also, although it did rain in NW Utah, the graphic looks suspicious and I'm fairly sure they did not get 8 inches of rain in the area this past week. - I see a NOAA report indicating amounts around 3 inches in the state (e.g. Zion Nat'l. Park), but NW Utah may not have received 2 inches.

(I'm removing my previous post which compared Intellicast totals...)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 13, 2013, 07:31:27 PM
Does anyone still believe that increased rainfall around the globe will be good for agriculture?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: deep octopus on September 13, 2013, 08:31:00 PM
Water, water everywhere... Nearly half of New Mexico is under a flash flood watch and the city of Santa Fe is under a flash flood warning. A couple of weeks ago, the American southwest was in drought. Fair to say the past week is going to reverse it pretty dramatically, at least temporarily.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on September 13, 2013, 11:04:55 PM
Does anyone still believe that increased rainfall around the globe will be good for agriculture?

You made me snort! Thanks.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on September 14, 2013, 01:43:24 PM
DO, yes, the irony is that nearly all of the southwest had just been designated to be under Long Term Drought by the US Drought Monitor. It will be interesting to see if this changes that, since a single heavy rain does not necessarily significantly alter the effects of a long-term deficit (depending on how they are computing things exactly).

Actually, about the worst kind of whiplash for an eco-system is deep, long drought that weakens and withers much of the plant life, followed by torrential rains that wash what's left right out of the soil, and the soil with it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: mabs on September 15, 2013, 11:29:02 PM
There are now over 1000 people unaccounted for in the Colorado flood and they just officially got a year's worth of rain in 5 days, with more to come. Of course, 1000 unaccounted for does not mean they are all gone for good, but the number has been doubling almost every day... The National Guard said yesterday that they performed the most air evacuations since Hurricane Katrina.

The rain was supposed to end tomorrow (Monday), but the latest projections have moved the end-of-rain to Tuesday. There is a low and a high on either side of Denver and they are not budging. Both these systems are funneling humid air from the Gulf over the city, up the mountains where it condenses to produce record amounts of rain. It has produced virtually stationary storms over the Denver area. They are stuck, as in not moving and not going away.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on September 16, 2013, 06:15:51 PM
And to complement the disaster in Boulder, where they get a years rain in a few days, we travel around the world to Kyoto.

Just hit by a 'moderate' typhoon with winds of 100mph.  Yet they get rain that the Meteorological service says is "unprecedented".   260,000 evacuated.

Makes you wonder a bit how all the big storms now seem to just be carrying a huge amount of water.  Sure brings home that figure oft quoted that for every 1 deg C rise in temp the air holds an extra 7% moisture.  I have this vision of what a big rain storm will be like in about 30 years.

http://news.msn.com/world/powerful-typhoon-lashes-japan-thousands-evacuate?ocid=ansnews11&stay=1 (http://news.msn.com/world/powerful-typhoon-lashes-japan-thousands-evacuate?ocid=ansnews11&stay=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on September 16, 2013, 06:51:02 PM
Here is an interesting side story about the Boulder flooding.

Leaking drilling fluids.

There are hundreds of drilling sites underwater.  Some of the onsite storage tanks are tipping over and leaking. (see pictures in article)

Quote
He observed “hundreds” of wells that were inundated. He also saw many condensate tanks that hold waste material from fracking at odd angles or even overturned.

A lot of this leaked waste water will flow over agricultural land and soak into the soil (yuck!).

http://www.texassharon.com/2013/09/15/is-there-a-media-blackout-on-the-fracking-flood-disaster-in-colorado/ (http://www.texassharon.com/2013/09/15/is-there-a-media-blackout-on-the-fracking-flood-disaster-in-colorado/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jmo on September 17, 2013, 02:12:50 AM
A few from Oz:

Southern tablelands grape growers fear late frosts after earliest budding ever recorded.

Much of Australia broke records for the warmest winter ever.

Last 12 months, Australia’s:
-  hottest day on record

- hottest week on record

- hottest month on record

- hottest summer on record

Right now in the SE, record rainfalls for this time of year. Eg:

"Weather bureau forecaster says such heavy rain is highly unusual for this time of year.

"For September we've actually never had this much rain at all at this time of year,".

"We tend to associate these very heavy rainfall events with the warmer months because warm air basically holds more moisture in the atmosphere.

"So to do it in September is unprecedented as far as my records sitting in front of me."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on September 20, 2013, 06:40:24 PM
On the news last night the weatherman said that Phoenix had a record hot summer this year.  Average temperature for the summer was 95.1 F, previous record was 94.9 F.  Note this is the average over the entire 90 days not just average highs (which would have been about 108 F).

The year is not over yet but we have seen the 4th hottest day ever (119 F) and are above average for days above 100 F (around 110 I think) and days above 110 F (20+ I think). 

The most days above 100 F was in 1989 at 143. And the most days above 110 F was 33 in 2011.

10 of the 13 hottest days ever were since 1989.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on October 04, 2013, 04:50:04 PM
Australia's long heat wave continues with the hottest Sept since records have been kept.

Quote
Nationally, September temperatures averaged nearly 5°F above normal. That beat the previous hottest September, set in 1983, by a full 2°F. This September also happened to be the most anomalously warm month of record, narrowly edging April 2005 by 0.2°F. In other words, Australia has never had a month so freakishly above average.

Quote
The summer of 2013 ended up being Australia's hottest on record, and since January, monthly temperatures have stayed above normal. The average temperature for the year-to-date is 2.8°F above normal. If the year ended today, this would be Australia's hottest year-to-date, putting it ahead of 2005 by a full half a degree Fahrenheit.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/australia-has-its-hottest-september-as-fire-threat-grows-16566 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/australia-has-its-hottest-september-as-fire-threat-grows-16566)
 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 05, 2013, 04:44:28 PM
South Dakota has been hit by nearly 3 feet of snow and tornados.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on October 06, 2013, 06:18:09 AM
I know it's not unusual for them to get a good amount of snow in the Black Hills area this time of year. But given what happened north of their in Calgary this spring, then south in CO this summer, I can't help but think of this as the third extreme precipitation event to hit in the areas along the west side of the Rockies. Does anyone know if this storm had a similar pattern to either of those.

The tornadoes seem a bit weird for this time of year, too.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 15, 2013, 02:47:02 PM
Our system (the earth) is so large and complex and spans so many areas of human knowledge that we cannot even begin to grasp the impact of AGW. Different scientific disciplines are each, in their own way, discovering and trying to understand shifts that are accelerating rapidly. None of these changes, most of which we are not even aware of, will have favorable impacts as our complex ecosystem is knocked out of balance. The link provides one tiny example.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/science/earth/something-is-killing-off-the-moose.html?_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/15/science/earth/something-is-killing-off-the-moose.html?_r=0)

We don't know what we don't know and when the unknown is finally revealed, bit by bit, we will be shocked and horrified. This is what keeps me up at night.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on October 15, 2013, 06:23:16 PM
We don't know what we don't know and when the unknown is finally revealed, bit by bit, we will be shocked and horrified. This is what keeps me up at night.

At least you're not alone. It makes me feel better knowing that there are others that share my fears and concerns. Not that it makes one bit of difference on the outcome, though!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: sg_smith on October 18, 2013, 12:08:12 AM
Early bushfires hit NSW.  Sydney is surrounded by fires.  I was there more than 10 years ago when something similar happen but that was in Feb/March not October.

Meanwhile here in Hobart it is wet and cold still, week after week.  It will get warmer and more settled next week after the Hobart show.  Every one agrees on that, traditionally the show weather is not so good then after the show it immediately improves (:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on October 18, 2013, 04:06:21 AM
Early bushfires hit NSW.  Sydney is surrounded by fires.  I was there more than 10 years ago when something similar happen but that was in Feb/March not October.

Meanwhile here in Hobart it is wet and cold still, week after week.  It will get warmer and more settled next week after the Hobart show.  Every one agrees on that, traditionally the show weather is not so good then after the show it immediately improves (:

Have they ever considered having the Hobart show earlier or having more Hobart shows? It isn't like it would hurt anything, would it?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: mati on October 18, 2013, 07:20:17 PM
The range of plants and animals in north america are slowly moving north:

1. Opposums have appeared in Ontario!
http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2012/03/12/opossums_spreading_across_gta.html (http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2012/03/12/opossums_spreading_across_gta.html)
2. Grey Jay populations in Algonquin Park declining as bird breeding range moves north
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090225182833.htm (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/02/090225182833.htm)
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/society-eco/bird-ranges.html (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/society-eco/bird-ranges.html)


Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on October 21, 2013, 12:45:14 PM
NSW Premier Barry O’Farrell has declared a state of emergency ahead of warnings predicting mass evacuations and severe weather conditions over the next few days.
http://www.2dayfm.com.au/newsfeed/2013/10/sydney-prepares-for-firestorm/ (http://www.2dayfm.com.au/newsfeed/2013/10/sydney-prepares-for-firestorm/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on October 26, 2013, 11:59:50 PM
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/25/climate-council-clear-link-bushfires (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/25/climate-council-clear-link-bushfires)

Climate Council finds 'clear link' between bushfires and climate change

Quote
There is a “clear link” between climate change and bushfires, with the current New South Wales fires influenced by a rising frequency of hot, dry days, according to the climate body that had its funding withdrawn by the Coalition government.

The Climate Council’s findings offered a rebuke to Tony Abbott’s assertion that there was no correlation between climate change and the NSW fires, which the prime minister renewed on Friday when he dismissed claims of a link as "complete hogwash".

Asked by the News Corporation columnist Andrew Bolt about the "insanity" of the reaction to the fires by the "media and outside" in connecting the fires to global warming, Abbott said: "I suppose, you might say, that they are desperate to find anything that they think might pass as ammunition for their cause.”

The Climate Council comprises an independent group of scientists and businesspeople established from the ashes of the Climate Commission, which was abolished by the government in September.

In interim findings from a 25-page report on bushfire risks due to be released in November, the Climate Council said long-term drying trends were creating conditions ideal for fire outbreaks. The council’s report explicitly links the NSW fires to climate change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 03, 2013, 08:47:14 AM
Hey Shared Humanity,
(not discounting the conditions in Oz)
I read that same report about the moose.  My dad grew up in northern Minnesota (US) and when I told him about this, he was kinda "meh."  He watches the mainstream network news and thinks that the changes in the jet stream just means that the "winters will be colder".  He doesn't really get it or care when I try to explain why the issue of climate change is so (increasingly) urgent.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 08, 2013, 07:08:20 AM
From Jeff Masters: "..Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history..."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 08, 2013, 05:26:44 PM
From Jeff Masters: "..Haiyan’s sustained winds at 195 mph, gusting to 235 mph, making it the 4th strongest tropical cyclone in world history..."

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)
Also from the link:
Quote
Thus, Haiyan had winds of 190 - 195 mph at landfall, making it the strongest tropical cyclone on record to make landfall in world history.

More broken records.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 10, 2013, 03:06:25 PM
Quote
On Leyte, regional police chief Elmer Soria said the provincial governor had told him there were about 10,000 deaths there, primarily from drowning and collapsed buildings.

As I read it, that's an estimate of 10,000 just from that one island!

http://world.time.com/2013/11/09/philippine-typhoon-death-toll-could-reach-10000/ (http://world.time.com/2013/11/09/philippine-typhoon-death-toll-could-reach-10000/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 11, 2013, 09:11:47 AM
*shaking head sadly* [wondering what in the world to do]  The destruction in the Philippines is... just...
The future.   You scientists have a bigger handle than I do, but this is the type of event that I imagined in my scaredy-cat non-scientist layman imagination when I started reading about this CC stuff in the early 90's.  What next?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 11, 2013, 01:15:31 PM
Worlds of pain  there now:

http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/11/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan/ (http://www.cnn.com/2013/11/11/world/asia/typhoon-haiyan/)

Quote
Thousands of houses have been obliterated. Many areas are still cut off from transport, communications and power. Some officials say that as many as 10,000 people may have been killed.

"There are too many people dead," said Richard Gordon, chairman of the Philippine Red Cross. "We have bodies in the water, bodies on the bridges, bodies on the side of the road."

And amid the carnage, hundreds of thousands of survivors are trying to cope with a lack of water, food, shelter and medicine. Aid workers and government officials are battling to get emergency supplies to hard hit areas, which have been cut off by fallen trees and power lines.

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/11/21399516-health-crisis-erupts-in-philippines-following-deadly-typhoon-haiyan (http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/11/21399516-health-crisis-erupts-in-philippines-following-deadly-typhoon-haiyan)

Health crisis erupts in Philippines following deadly Typhoon Haiyan

"What next?"?

Expect even more extreme storms, though not necessarily more frequent ones (the jury seems to be still out on that one).

CC tried to get the latest from the relevant scientists here, though some of that seems to err on the side of 'scientific reticence' there to me.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/super-typhoon-haiyan-a-hint-of-whats-to-come-16724 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/super-typhoon-haiyan-a-hint-of-whats-to-come-16724)

The one graph presented there shows an expected clear increase everywhere in the precipitation rate of cyclones everywhere. It also sees a distinct but not as pronounced increase in intensity in all but two of the areas surveyed. So I guess that's the best estimate of "what's next."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 11, 2013, 04:39:01 PM
*shaking head sadly* [wondering what in the world to do]  The destruction in the Philippines is... just...
The future.   You scientists have a bigger handle than I do, but this is the type of event that I imagined in my scaredy-cat non-scientist layman imagination when I started reading about this CC stuff in the early 90's.  What next?

Permit me to borrow this piece!

Quote
*shaking head sadly* [wondering what in the world to do]

Speaking as an individual American, I don't know if global warming was involved and who gives two sh!ts? The important thing is people are suffering and they are a great people, just like everybody else.

I appeal to every American, every Catholic and human being on Earth to examine these people based on their character and help them in their time of need. I'm not talking about this recent disaster when it comes to their character, I'm talking about their history and what a person should know about a great people with so many unsung heros, it's unbelievable.

This recent disaster made me think about something I wondered long ago. Why isn't there a system to instantly transfer money owned by an individual to other banks around our world? Banks don't get charged electrons to transfer small or large amounts of money, so why don't they cooperate during times of disaster allowing people to give and transfer their money cost free? With the problems our world faces, banks should be on the front lines saying "give a penny, a dime, a dollar or many dollars" and we'll support you transferring your money to a needy place, free of charge. It isn't how much you give that counts, it's just giving a damn.   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 11, 2013, 08:23:24 PM
I'm just glad there weren't any nuclear plants in the path of that thing.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 11, 2013, 08:49:54 PM
I'm just glad there weren't any nuclear plants in the path of that thing.

It wouldn't hurt a Thorium MSR, even with a rocket launcher.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 11, 2013, 11:19:33 PM
Glad to hear the next-generation, right-around-corner brand of nukes will be the ones that are perfectly and absolutely safe and will save all mankind.

(But it seems to me I have heard promises like these before...oh, yeah! I remember now. That's what they've been saying since the beginning of the nuclear era. Hasn't worked out quite like that so far, but I'm sure this time will be different.  ;))
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 12, 2013, 12:58:01 AM
Glad to hear the next-generation, right-around-corner brand of nukes will be the ones that are perfectly and absolutely safe and will save all mankind.

(But it seems to me I have heard promises like these before...oh, yeah! I remember now. That's what they've been saying since the beginning of the nuclear era. Hasn't worked out quite like that so far, but I'm sure this time will be different.  ;))

Promises, my ass, educate yourself! The man in charge of making the first two commercial nuclear reactor designs was asked to make a nuclear reactor for an airplane and these developments happened when we were children, if you were even born then.

What makes a person like you, go to a forum called Policies and Solutions and intentionally disagree with every possible solution to our present problems? Go to the Biochar thread, if that question is too confusing for you! What the hell is wrong with the Doomsdayer mind?

A troll isn't someone who disagrees with you on a discussion forum, it's a person who disrupts the forum by making things personal, instead of discussing the subject. You're a cheerleader kind of person without creative ideas. I'm a person trained in science and many other things with many ideas. Go play with the kids, you're not in my league and are a waste of my time on Earth! This place is about science and there are plenty of political sites with forums about environmental or other issues. I came hear by request to discuss the science and not to debate stupid things. If you want a debate, pick a political forum, announce it, and walk to your grave! I've been there, done that, on many subjects. To me, it's light work.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 12, 2013, 05:23:29 AM
You are obviously overwrought.

Sorry to ruffle your feathers.

Come back when you have managed to compose yourself.

Meanwhile, there are events that are actually worth getting worked up about going on:

Quote
Bloomberg Industries is estimating insured damages of $2 billion and total economic damages of $14 billion, making Haiyan the most expensive natural disaster in Philippines history.

This is the third time in the past 12 months the Philippines have set a new record for their most expensive natural disaster in history.

The record was initially set by Typhoon Bopha of December 2012, with $1.7 billion in damage; that record was beaten by the $2.2 billion in damage done by the August 2013 floods on Luzon caused by moisture associated with Typhoon Trami.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2576#commenttop (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2576#commenttop)


Quote
On the outskirts of Tacloban City, a coastal eastern city of 220,000 where tsunami-like waves destroyed many buildings, Edward Gualberto accidentally stepped on bodies as he raided the wreckage of a home.

Wearing nothing but a pair of red basketball trousers, the father-of-four and village councillor apologized for his shabby appearance and for stealing from the dead.

"I am a decent person. But if you have not eaten in 3 days, you do shameful things to survive," Gualberto told AFP as he dug canned goods from the debris and flies swarmed over the bodies.

"We have no food, we need water and other things to survive."

After half a day's work, he had filled a bag with an assortment of essentials including packs of spaghetti, cans of beer, detergent, soap, canned goods, biscuits and candies.

"This typhoon has stripped us of our dignity... but I still have my family and I am thankful for that."...

http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/typhoon-yolanda/43381-tormented-typhoon-victims-scour-for-food-yolanda (http://www.rappler.com/move-ph/issues/disasters/typhoon-yolanda/43381-tormented-typhoon-victims-scour-for-food-yolanda)

And here's another much-watch piece. Are the major media outlets starting to get a clue??

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-12/philippines-typhoon-transforms-tacloban-into-wasteland/5085222 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-12/philippines-typhoon-transforms-tacloban-into-wasteland/5085222)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 12, 2013, 06:09:40 PM
Take it easy, ggelsrinc.

Everyone here, including Van Jones (see below), are all for Gen IV nuclear reactors. And although I fear Jevon's Paradox somewhat, I'm in favour of it as well. But unfortunately it's not that simple.

Extended Cut: Van Jones and Robert Stone debate the future of nuclear power (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tt6e_VA5gg#ws)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 12, 2013, 11:36:36 PM
(Thanks, Neven. I also am not exactly against gen4. I just have a bit of an admittedly knee-jerk reaction against claims that any one techonology is promised to be perfectly safe, to have not down sides or unintended consequences and to essentially save humanity from itself--just saw essentially that claim at RC. I've just seen that commercial too many times over the years in its various forms to react with anything other than deep cynicism. Apologies if my initial comment threw the thread a bit off topic.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 13, 2013, 12:10:10 AM
Take it easy, ggelsrinc.

Everyone here, including Van Jones (see below), are all for Gen IV nuclear reactors. And although I fear Jevon's Paradox somewhat, I'm in favour of it as well. But unfortunately it's not that simple.

Extended Cut: Van Jones and Robert Stone debate the future of nuclear power (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2tt6e_VA5gg#ws)

A well placed shot in front of the bow is as easy as it comes. I've made it clear I'm here to discuss science and don't believe the world will end tomorrow. I believe we have solutions tabled, because of various reasons. I don't know if global warming is the greatest threat mankind has ever faced compared to Toba, but who would want it to go that far to find out?

It's easy to understand why people are afraid of nuclear, but reality dictates there is not one element in the universe that doesn't have radioactive isotopes. If Thorium MSRs are Gen IV, it's only because we spent three generations not building them.

No problem facing humanity has ever been simple and I'm not suggesting a one size fits all solution. Fossil fuels are definitely not a solution and we may have to remove our past CO2 emissions to have a solution. There are other great solutions that can't work everywhere.

Thorium MSRs are not anything new and they can't have a meltdown. I'm fairly sure this is the link, but my present connectivity problems kept me from verifying it. The present designs of commercial nuclear reactors are dinosaurs and dangerous. All nuclear reactors aren't high pressure needing special confinement.   

http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/servlets/purl/4093364-qQG01M/4093364.pdf (http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/servlets/purl/4093364-qQG01M/4093364.pdf)

 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 13, 2013, 06:32:56 AM
Quote
A well placed shot in front of the bow is as easy as it comes. I've made it clear I'm here to discuss science and don't believe the world will end tomorrow.

Which is fine, but you don't have to go and insult people or let them know that you judge their actions (the judging is OK, everyone does that, but communicating it, is where it gets tricky, especially on the Internet), in the name of science. Science is not asking this of you.

Other than that, no problems.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: icebgone on November 19, 2013, 04:38:21 AM
Weird weather story:  I spent part of my Sunday in the basement because of a severe weather outbreak here in MidAmerica.  More than 40 Tornadoes visited MidAmerica resulting in 6 fatalities, multiple injuries and About 1 Billion in property damage.  First time a system with this amount of energy has happened in late November.  A more typical time would be late May or early June.  The temp reached 26.5 C also common in early June.  At least one of the tornadoes had a measured wind speed of 320-340 kph.  Unfortunately, it came down in a populated area.  I know that you can not link any one weather item to atmospheric warming but the number of recent one-of-a-kind weather events is getting long.  Hope everyone else is doing well.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 19, 2013, 07:17:11 AM
Hi Icebgone,  glad you are out of that mess and safe.  I have lots of family in that swath and really feel for you..

Neven, thanks.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on November 19, 2013, 03:50:11 PM
Sardinia  17 inches of rain in 24 hours

Quote
...The Mediterranean island of Sardinia, prized by the jet-set for its white sand beaches and crystal-clear seas, was a flood-ravaged mudbath Tuesday after a freak torrential rainstorm killed at least 17 people, downed bridges and swept away cars....

...received more than 44 centimeters (17.3 inches) of rain in 24 hours Monday — half the amount it normally receives in a year — officials said....

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/19/sardinia-storm-apocalyptic-floods-italy_n_4301459.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/11/19/sardinia-storm-apocalyptic-floods-italy_n_4301459.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 19, 2013, 10:37:44 PM
Hi JimD, I am pretty sure you are in my neck of the woods, so to speak.  What are your thoughts on the water issue?  What kind of scenarios do you see with your (I think) used-to-be-a-small-town of now just under a million and growing?

EDIT: This question is kinda OT, sorry everyone.  I do want to still discuss the impacts of weird weather.  Midwest tornadoes, Sardinian rain, bring it on!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 12:29:00 AM
Hi JimD, I am pretty sure you are in my neck of the woods, so to speak.  What are your thoughts on the water issue?  What kind of scenarios do you see with your (I think) used-to-be-a-small-town of now just under a million and growing?

EDIT: This question is kinda OT, sorry everyone.  I do want to still discuss the impacts of weird weather.  Midwest tornadoes, Sardinian rain, bring it on!

I would have said many years ago, send Great Lake's and river's waters down there on a grander scale than our ancestors did, who knew how to irrigate, but the idea is too simple. It isn't that expensive to provide needed water to land producing products. It's expensive to neglect it and a choice of only one possible solution to the problem isn't hard to choose. At a certain point, we can make water flow without pumping it, so why can't we pump it over mountains? They never built a solution, only the river damned up starving Mexico of water. It takes more than that. 

I don't live in either areas, but I live, at least in my mind, where people are kind to each other. I do my best and that's all anyone can ask of another person.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 20, 2013, 02:35:05 AM
Well, I agree in principle, but the Anasazi and Jared Diamond would probably disagree.  Also, the folks living in the Mississippi delta would also object, especially after this past year or two.
Best to you, ggel.

P.S.  The Oglalla is in trouble and the northwestern part of the US is not getting the type of snowpack that the southwest depends on for water, according to what I hear (not a scientist).  Lovely future all around....

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on November 20, 2013, 05:17:58 AM
Hi JimD, I am pretty sure you are in my neck of the woods, so to speak.  What are your thoughts on the water issue?  What kind of scenarios do you see with your (I think) used-to-be-a-small-town of now just under a million and growing?

EDIT: This question is kinda OT, sorry everyone.  I do want to still discuss the impacts of weird weather.  Midwest tornadoes, Sardinian rain, bring it on!

Anon,

I live in Prescott, AZ.  Where do you live?  Prescott is about 40,000 and the whole county is about 120,000.  Did you think I live in Phoenix?  It is way above a million as the metro Phoenix area is above 4 million.

We have water problems up the yazoo for the whole region.  Some places worse than others.  But it is worth pointing out that real water conservation is not really practiced here yet (but it will be) so there is a lot that conservation can do.  In our area some towns have plenty of water and others are already getting short.  But everyone is for development - all the business people and politicians in any case.

But the long-term drought seems to have settled in already and things are going to get tight over time.  Prescott last saw a year with average rainfall in 1998.  The last 15 years have averaged about 74% of the average since the 1890's.  A bad sign. 

We are not on the Colorado drainage here but those who are are looking at real trouble in another year or two if the mountains don't get a lot of snow the next couple of years.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 07:27:42 AM
Well, I agree in principle, but the Anasazi and Jared Diamond would probably disagree.  Also, the folks living in the Mississippi delta would also object, especially after this past year or two.
Best to you, ggel.

P.S.  The Oglalla is in trouble and the northwestern part of the US is not getting the type of snowpack that the southwest depends on for water, according to what I hear (not a scientist).  Lovely future all around....

We invited the Anasazi to our counsel about water requests, but they didn't show up and rumor has it, they will show up when Jared Diamond starts sh!ting tomahawks. The band we sent out to look for him with Ex Lax hasn't returned safely yet, but we're hoping.

Is there any rule, all the water has to go to the ocean or mankind can only screw up a planet one way? Let's experiment!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 20, 2013, 06:45:15 PM
Hi JimD, I am pretty sure you are in my neck of the woods, so to speak.  What are your thoughts on the water issue?  What kind of scenarios do you see with your (I think) used-to-be-a-small-town of now just under a million and growing?

EDIT: This question is kinda OT, sorry everyone.  I do want to still discuss the impacts of weird weather.  Midwest tornadoes, Sardinian rain, bring it on!

I would have said many years ago, send Great Lake's and river's waters down there on a grander scale than our ancestors did, who knew how to irrigate, but the idea is too simple. It isn't that expensive to provide needed water to land producing products. It's expensive to neglect it and a choice of only one possible solution to the problem isn't hard to choose. At a certain point, we can make water flow without pumping it, so why can't we pump it over mountains? They never built a solution, only the river damned up starving Mexico of water. It takes more than that. 

I don't live in either areas, but I live, at least in my mind, where people are kind to each other. I do my best and that's all anyone can ask of another person.

Last winter Lake Michigan reached the lowest recorded level ever and has had below average sea levels for 14 years. Despite near record levels of precipitation the level dropped again last winter. This is due to record levels of evaporation as Lake Michigan no longer freezes in the winter. This will not change. Do not look to the Great Lakes as any kind of solution to the problems of desertification that are rapidly coming to the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 07:18:37 PM
Hi JimD, I am pretty sure you are in my neck of the woods, so to speak.  What are your thoughts on the water issue?  What kind of scenarios do you see with your (I think) used-to-be-a-small-town of now just under a million and growing?

EDIT: This question is kinda OT, sorry everyone.  I do want to still discuss the impacts of weird weather.  Midwest tornadoes, Sardinian rain, bring it on!
 

I would have said many years ago, send Great Lake's and river's waters down there on a grander scale than our ancestors did, who knew how to irrigate, but the idea is too simple. It isn't that expensive to provide needed water to land producing products. It's expensive to neglect it and a choice of only one possible solution to the problem isn't hard to choose. At a certain point, we can make water flow without pumping it, so why can't we pump it over mountains? They never built a solution, only the river damned up starving Mexico of water. It takes more than that. 

I don't live in either areas, but I live, at least in my mind, where people are kind to each other. I do my best and that's all anyone can ask of another person.

Last winter Lake Michigan reached the lowest recorded level ever and has had below average sea levels for 14 years. Despite near record levels of precipitation the level dropped again last winter. This is due to record levels of evaporation as Lake Michigan no longer freezes in the winter. This will not change. Do not look to the Great Lakes as any kind of solution to the problems of desertification that are rapidly coming to the U.S. Southwest and Great Plains.

I'm aware of that and how much water flows over Niagara Falls and down the Mississippi River. I'm also aware water can fill an aquifer more easily than it can be pumped out of it.

I'm also aware problems can have solutions and it's the job of human beings to find solutions and not use problems just to complain about things. Is there something wrong with doing things that will logically work, instead of claiming the whole world is hopeless and there is no use to even try anything?

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 20, 2013, 07:32:43 PM
I'm also aware water can fill an aquifer more easily than it can be pumped out of it.
Your awareness is completely backwards on this. If this were the case, aquifer depletion wouldn't be a worldwide problem.

I'm also aware problems can have solutions and it's the job of human beings to find solutions and not use problems just to complain about things. Is there something wrong with doing things that will logically work, instead of claiming the whole world is hopeless and there is no use to even try anything?
Generally, the solutions we find to such problems are at the expense of the other creatures we share this rock with and our own environment. Your kind of thinking is what has gotten us to the point of 7 billion humans scrounging around in a desperate bid to use the last of our home's bounty. It's time for a different perspective.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 20, 2013, 07:45:08 PM

I'm also aware problems can have solutions and it's the job of human beings to find solutions and not use problems just to complain about things. Is there something wrong with doing things that will logically work, instead of claiming the whole world is hopeless and there is no use to even try anything?

I am not saying the world is hopeless. I am merely stating that your suggested solution does not, in fact, address the problem. It only addresses a symptom of the problem.

I have a 35 year career in business. When problems occur, they are never more then symptoms of a deeper problem. This is true of any problem that occurs in any business. The key to solving the problem is to dig deeply to find the root cause and correcting this root cause. Any other approach is futile as this root cause is resulting in problems that occur throughout the business. When you simply fix the symptom, the root cause will continue to cause ever more serious problems.

Your solution is not a solution, it is a fix, a band aid and really quite useless.

AGW is a serious problem with symptoms that are manifesting themselves all over the planet. Building sea walls around cities addresses a symptom. Draining the Great Lakes to deliver water to the Southwest is the same. None of these fixes will deliver us from our fate and, as long as we do not address the root cause, the symptoms will become more numerous and more severe.

In business, it can often be very difficult to identify the root cause but the effort will pay off as correcting the root cause will not only fix the problem you are focused on but it will fix problems throughout the organization that have not yet caught your attention.

We are fortunate in that the worldwide scientific community has discovered the root cause of our problem. AGW is caused by rapidly rising levels of CO2 in our atmosphere as a result of our burning fossil fuels. I am hopeful but not if we continue to have people propose solutions like yours. The solution is simple. Stop burning fossil fuels. Any, and I mean any, other solutions are pointless unless we first address the root cause.

Now, how much water goes over the Niagara Falls? And what is the price of tea in China?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 20, 2013, 08:24:17 PM
Nicely put (as usual), SH.

I can't remember who said it, but there is quote that says something like: "The origins of most problems is solutions."

I would just add to your point that scientist were able to get to the root physical cause of AGW. The yet deeper question is how and why did modern industrial civilization end up creating this (and a number of other) global unfolding catastrophes. But pondering that question may lead us well beyond the basic topic of this thread.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 08:43:20 PM
What if we had all the cheap energy that wasn't polluting our planet, would mankind still be damned for using it to make things better?

I don't see people claiming mankind is the problem giving up their lives to solve what they claim is the root problem. We have comets coming, so I may be premature on that assessment.

If we want to get off the CO2 bandwagon, we are going to have to go nuclear and safe nuclear that doesn't proliferate nuclear weapons is the only answer to base load electricity. All alternative solutions to carbon are fine, but they can't fulfill the simple requirement that electricity has to be produced based on demand, without large production of electricity.

I'm not into the dream of making the world a better place by causing human beings to become extinct, which some people think is the only solution. I try to spend my life helping people and not wishing them harm.

Since I've went totally OT, what can I say? I think the effort to convince another person that we have already destroyed our planet by claiming weird weather is proof of anything is nonsense. Let's try reality for a change!

Weird weather has always been around during my life. It wasn't weird weather events that taught me about climate change in my area, it was simple observation. The climate here is warmer during the winter than it was in the past, amongst other things. Since I live on a peninsula where water governs extremes, my senses should tell me if things have changed and they have. There is no doubt our climate has changed and only an idiot living here would think otherwise.

So let's say we are already doomed by what has been done and there is no way out of our fate. Why waste your last days on Earth, bitching and complaining to a fool who doesn't see the world as you do? Talking about ultimate disaster or weather anecdotal stories isn't going to convince them and since it's all hopeless, what is the point?

If there is the slightest chance of hope, preaching to the choir is wasted effort. Why not use that effort on political sites that seem to be dominated by crackpots claiming things only a moron would believe, but they are there in abundance trying to breed more morons?

Let's discuss science! 

   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 20, 2013, 08:52:17 PM
Let's discuss science! 

The science says we are in real trouble from the perspectives of food supply, destruction of marine environments, climate change, energy, antibiotic resistant disease, overpopulation, inadequate water supplies, deforestation, destruction of pollinators and on and on and on.

Proposed grandeous solutions to these problems will fail. We haven't the time, energy or technology to implement them. This is living in reality.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 08:56:57 PM
Let's discuss science! 

The science says we are in real trouble from the perspectives of food supply, destruction of marine environments, climate change, energy, antibiotic resistant disease, overpopulation, inadequate water supplies, deforestation, destruction of pollinators and on and on and on.

Proposed grandeous solutions to these problems will fail. We haven't the time, energy or technology to implement them. This is living in reality.

The science says quitters never win.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 20, 2013, 09:03:48 PM
GG said: The science says quitters never win.

Where did I say I'm quitting?

Christ, man. I've got a 10 year old daughter that I have to get through this. But I'm not going to manage to do that filling my eyes and ears with unicorn rainbows. The time to pay attention to reality is now. Science fiction won't cut it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 09:13:25 PM
GG said: The science says quitters never win.

Where did I say I'm quitting?

Christ, man. I've got a 10 year old daughter that I have to get through this. But I'm not going to manage to do that filling my eyes and ears with unicorn rainbows. The time to pay attention to reality is now. Science fiction won't cut it.

Go to a political site and stop preaching to the choir! Having any of my 6 children 10 years old, would put me back in the unicorn rainbow days.

If you can't investigate solutions, it's your problem!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 20, 2013, 09:43:30 PM
Hi JimD,
I don't live there anymore, but I thought you were in Tucson.  Yep, northern AZ has it's own unique set of worries! I was shocked when I went to Phantom Ranch for my honeymoon and found out how much water (granted, that is north of you) had to be trucked in to some of the surrounding areas...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 20, 2013, 10:18:29 PM
If you can't investigate solutions, it's your problem!

This from a guy with 6 kids?! (That's not really fair of me, given your generation, but still a valid indication of how we got here)

Don't you see the problem is too many people? There are zero solutions that continue our way of life at current and future population levels in the face of peak oil and climate change. Science has told us this for years but we keep hurtling toward the cliff regardless.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 20, 2013, 10:56:00 PM
+10

Back to the putative topic of the thread:

http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/midwest-tornado-outbreak-communities-come-together-20131119 (http://www.weather.com/news/tornado-central/midwest-tornado-outbreak-communities-come-together-20131119)

Midwest Tornado Outbreak: At Least 55 Tornadoes Confirmed So Far

Quote
The tornadoes killed six people in Illinois, the most to die in tornadoes on a single November day in the state. Two of the twisters, including the one with a 46-mile path that devastated neighborhoods in the central Illinois community of Washington, received a preliminary designation of EF4. The state has never seen an EF4 — the second-strongest rating given to twisters, indicating wind speeds between 166 to 200 mph — in November, according to weather records.

These are beyond "weird weather." These are weather disasters never before seen in these part at this time of year.

Something has shifted.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 20, 2013, 11:23:27 PM
hi Wili,
Yes, I keep hearing a lot about how unusual this type of storm and resulting tornadoes is for this area in November.  I grew up there so am interested to see how the snow/cold weather/snowpack will be this winter in places in the US that depend on it later in the year for water.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 20, 2013, 11:30:54 PM
I can understand tornadoes coming earlier in the year as things are getting warmer. But I must admit that these very late season tornadoes feel particularly freaky, odd, and unexpected. Has anyone been studying why they should be coming at this time of year? From what I've seen, their response to GW is particularly hard to model.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2013, 02:16:37 AM
Nicely put (as usual), SH.

I can't remember who said it, but there is quote that says something like: "The origins of most problems is solutions."

I would just add to your point that scientist were able to get to the root physical cause of AGW. The yet deeper question is how and why did modern industrial civilization end up creating this (and a number of other) global unfolding catastrophes. But pondering that question may lead us well beyond the basic topic of this thread.

This is exactly how these kinds of inquiries solve problems and your diving deeper is how true root causes can be identified and corrected.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 21, 2013, 02:29:39 AM
Oops. That should have been "are solutions." We are rats chasing our tails.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 21, 2013, 06:29:35 AM
What if we had all the cheap energy that wasn't polluting our planet, would mankind still be damned for using it to make things better?

I don't see people claiming mankind is the problem giving up their lives to solve what they claim is the root problem. We have comets coming, so I may be premature on that assessment.

If we want to get off the CO2 bandwagon, we are going to have to go nuclear and safe nuclear that doesn't proliferate nuclear weapons is the only answer to base load electricity. All alternative solutions to carbon are fine, but they can't fulfill the simple requirement that electricity has to be produced based on demand, without large production of electricity.

I'm not into the dream of making the world a better place by causing human beings to become extinct, which some people think is the only solution. I try to spend my life helping people and not wishing them harm.

Since I've went totally OT, what can I say? I think the effort to convince another person that we have already destroyed our planet by claiming weird weather is proof of anything is nonsense. Let's try reality for a change!

Weird weather has always been around during my life. It wasn't weird weather events that taught me about climate change in my area, it was simple observation. The climate here is warmer during the winter than it was in the past, amongst other things. Since I live on a peninsula where water governs extremes, my senses should tell me if things have changed and they have. There is no doubt our climate has changed and only an idiot living here would think otherwise.

So let's say we are already doomed by what has been done and there is no way out of our fate. Why waste your last days on Earth, bitching and complaining to a fool who doesn't see the world as you do? Talking about ultimate disaster or weather anecdotal stories isn't going to convince them and since it's all hopeless, what is the point?

If there is the slightest chance of hope, preaching to the choir is wasted effort. Why not use that effort on political sites that seem to be dominated by crackpots claiming things only a moron would believe, but they are there in abundance trying to breed more morons?

Let's discuss science! 

 

I am tired of reading your pompous drivel.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 21, 2013, 08:10:09 AM
I am tired of reading your pompous drivel.

Then don't read it!  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 22, 2013, 03:34:09 AM
I am tired of reading your pompous drivel.

Then don't read it!  ;)

You're right. Simple solutions to simple problems. ::)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anonymouse on November 23, 2013, 12:21:42 AM
Here is another record, not catastrophic but significant for the record (last was 1884) from Wunderground:

"... Record daily maximum rainfall set at Yuma AZ...

a record rainfall of 0.33 inch(es) was set at Yuma AZ yesterday.
This breaks the old record of 0.23 inch(es) set in 1884."


http://www.wunderground.com/US/AZ/023.html#WAT (http://www.wunderground.com/US/AZ/023.html#WAT)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on November 27, 2013, 06:23:08 PM
I am tired of reading your pompous drivel.

Then don't read it!  ;)

You're right. Simple solutions to simple problems. ::)

The site has a rather nice ignore user function that cuts reams of drivel into a single line saying you're ignoring the user.

My only regret is that it still flags as unread forums and topics in which the only recent contribution is one made by a user you are ignoring. Still, it's nice...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on November 29, 2013, 07:03:04 PM
I will take a look at this feature.

I would like to say that I chose the words "pompous drivel" carefully. It was meant to be descriptive and not insulting although it likely served both functions.

Definitions:

Pompous (adj.): having or showing the attitude of people who speak and behave in a very formal and serious way because they believe that they are better, smarter, or more important than other people

Drivel (noun): long, boring, often meaningless rambling
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 30, 2013, 10:41:48 AM
"The site has a rather nice ignore user function"

How does one access that, exactly?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 30, 2013, 10:50:35 AM
I guess it is here :
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=profile;area=lists;u=85
I haven't done that yet, I can sort the things out without ! just do not answer to the trolls !
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 30, 2013, 11:28:07 AM
Thanks, L. I also assumed there was some button on the profile page for that function, but I don't see one there. (But I am often blind to the obvious--where on the profile page are you seeing an 'ignore' button?)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 30, 2013, 12:58:57 PM
Click on profile then "modify profile">buddies list/ignore list then choose edit ignore list and fill the blank (choose well).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on November 30, 2013, 04:24:56 PM
"The site has a rather nice ignore user function"

How does one access that, exactly?

Profile -> Modify Profile -> Buddies/Ignore List (at the bottom of the modify profile menu).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 30, 2013, 08:23:52 PM
Thanks. I didn't realize the "buddy" button had a toggle to it. I still probably won't employ it, but it's nice to know it's an option.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 20, 2013, 02:07:10 PM
A résumé of 2013 :
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/2013-extreme-weather-events (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/18/2013-extreme-weather-events)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on December 20, 2013, 04:05:02 PM
And another, from the same source, but concentrating on the US:

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/20/2013-climate-change-review-obama-fracking (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/20/2013-climate-change-review-obama-fracking)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bligh8 on December 23, 2013, 04:56:12 PM
http://m.theday.com/article/20131223/NWS13/312239955/1070/mobile&template=mobile (http://m.theday.com/article/20131223/NWS13/312239955/1070/mobile&template=mobile)

I’ve seen these type of temperature fluctuations locally before. ie temps in the 70s on Dec.25 in the early 1970s.

But never have I seen wild temperatures and conditions across the US and Canada like what we are seeing today.

Is this a portent of things to come?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on December 23, 2013, 05:26:26 PM
Here's the temperature anomaly map for North America Dec 3-10:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid)

We're looking at very cold temperatures tonight here in Minnesota: -26 C (-15 F) with wind chills down to -34 C (-30 F).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 23, 2013, 06:44:57 PM
No snow in Siberia!  Much-above-average warmth across Russia (and the arctic) over the past 30 days.

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/features/no-snow-in-siberia-locals-marvel-and-worry-at-the-snow-shortage/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/features/no-snow-in-siberia-locals-marvel-and-worry-at-the-snow-shortage/)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2013, 02:37:00 AM
Tweet from Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
12/23/13, 5:49 PM
Currently 15 degrees in Anchorage, Alaska, 31 at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, and 1 degree in Madison, Wisconsin.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on December 24, 2013, 04:12:20 PM
-12 F (-23 C) here in Minnesota right now, but the East Coast has had some very warm weather for this time of year:


Record high temperatures in New York, Philadelphia – Washington D.C. ‘about 40 degrees warmer than normal’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/12/record-high-temperatures-in-new-york.html (http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/12/record-high-temperatures-in-new-york.html)

Quote
December 21-22. From Florida to New York daily and, in some cases, monthly heat records were broken. There are too many to list all, so here is a selection:

DECEMBER MONTHLY RECORDS

Norfolk, Virginia: 81° on 12/22 (old record 80° on 3 occasions)

Augusta, Georgia: 83° on 12/21 (old 82° on 8 occasions)

Savannah, Georgia: 83° on 12/22 (ties 5 other occasions)

Jacksonville, Florida: 84° on 1/22 (ties 9 other occasions—including twice before this month)

SOME OF THE DAILY RECORDS SET ON DECEMBER 21 or 22

    63° Binghamton, NY
    70 ° Harrisburg, PA (set at 6 a.m.)
    82° Tampa, FL
    73° Knoxville, TN (set at 4 a.m.)
    72° Chattanooga, TN
    73° Bristol, TN
    64° Canton, OH (set at midnight )
    72° Pittsburgh, PA
    70° New York City, Central Park,
    71° Newark, NJ
    64° Hartford, CT
    63° Worcester, MA
    72° Washington, DC
    64° Providence, RI
    86° Orlando, FL
    71° Atlanta, GA
    78° Raleigh, NC
    68° Philadelphia, PA
    76° Richmond, VA
    71° Atlantic City, NJ
    67° Wilmington, DE

Any ASIForum members in these areas enjoying these temperatures?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on December 24, 2013, 10:32:49 PM
The UK is being battered by very strong winds at the moment, and the pressure north of Scotland was measured at 906mb! My barometer only goes down to 950mb.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on December 27, 2013, 07:06:41 AM
http://climatestate.com/2013/12/25/amazing-photos-of-the-ontario-ice-storm/ (http://climatestate.com/2013/12/25/amazing-photos-of-the-ontario-ice-storm/)


Extreme Ice Storm, UK Floods

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bligh8 on December 28, 2013, 08:50:33 PM
Here's the temperature anomaly map for North America Dec 3-10:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid)

We're looking at very cold temperatures tonight here in Minnesota: -26 C (-15 F) with wind chills down to -34 C (-30 F).

Wili...First, Thanks for the weather anomaly map. The information displayed all points towards the bigger picture of Global climate change.
 
My point in posting the newspaperarticle was poorly explained (by me).
In that these type of damaging weather events are increasing, as everyone here knows. In a weather climate like we have now, which is very rapidly changing, society is running from one weather related catastrophe to the next and we are subsidizing the FF industry by paying for the damage. Thus perpetuating our own "to comfortable to give up" life style.
 
This activity(noise) is a prelude to the second step on the ladder of Global warming. We all, including everybody has witnessed the first step with a collective yawn, put a convenient name on it and stuck in the back drawer of forgotten issues. The first step as a Globally recognizable event was the destruction of the planets coral reef systems. So what, a few distinct creatures and some fish died...but it was non the less a global warming related event.
 
The second step (the collapse of the WAIS) will happen soon enough and in my opinion much quicker than the models are predicting today. It will have a high impact on the planets economy and as a result of this event hundreds of millions of people will die. Mass migration, food and redistribution of energy will fall into the garbage patch of global warming. Sea level rise in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a catastrophic chain of events in the Arctic as warm Atlantic and Pacific waters surge into the Arctic Ocean. The tiny amounts of methane release we are seeing today will escalate accordingly.
 
The "noise" will escalate to calamity and geo-engineers will frantically spray all kinds of toxic brews into the atmosphere trying to protect what's left. Sea Levels will continue to rise and economic conditions will continue to deteriorate. By this time society will have no basic human services...at all. Folks will be left to their own devices for survival, accordingly, compassion and brutality will be evidenced at every turn.
 
Unfortunately the GW ladder is a short one as the third and forth steps will melt in a ever increasingly hot planet.
 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on December 28, 2013, 09:18:17 PM
Many good points. Let me just make a comment about this one for now:

"we are subsidizing the FF industry by paying for the damage. Thus perpetuating our own "to comfortable to give up" life style."

I wonder if this could be a way to get courts involved here. It is long past time for class action suits and suits by governments at different levels against the ff companies or against the groups funding climate denial so they can start paying directly for the damages they have been central at creating, and that they have done everything in their power to stop others from preventing.

Even a law suit that didn't win could garner some press and put some fear of the goddess in some of these spineless bastards. Ideally, any winnings would be used to relocate (rather than, say, rebuilding along the coast), as well as to educate, to insulate, and to foster other measures that reduce the likelihood of the next disaster being even worse.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bligh8 on December 29, 2013, 05:11:16 PM
Hey Wili

Perhaps a law suit surrounding a particular event could be broadly publicized but I doubt it would be this last ice storm, or even hurricane sandy, which by the way our electrical rate just rose 4.5 percent in response to that event. However that mess out in Colorado could be argued to be a direct result of GW.

Wili as you probably guessed by now I’m no scientist and had little understanding of GW other than the concept just a few months ago. That said, I took the time to focus on the research past and present within the fram straights. What I found was disturbing and revealing to the point where one could rationally define what’s coming within the confines of GW.

As for solutions I have none. It seems the entire planet utilizes FF to define economic outlooks, from south Sudan to Japan everyone is jumping on the FF train to destruction.

There seems to be no outcry from the public, O-sure folks yell about fracking and pipelines, but the basic numbers are adding up quickly to the destruction of human life, possibly forever. The necessary reductions in co2 emissions will never, under the current situation be implemented. Even if they threw the ff switch to off today the damage we have done will resound for centuries to come. The street artist, the poets, the writers, the producers and politicians all seem blind to this.

The old adage “Evil will prevail unless good men act” seems to fit perfectly.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 03, 2014, 10:14:49 AM
"There seems to be outcry from the public" Well, aren't we the public? Why aren't we out crying??'-)

No really, I do plan to raise a bit of a ruckus this year--to not 'go gentle into that good night'--mostly on line and email blitzes. Any New Years resolutions from others?

On possible legal approaches, there's this: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-02/a-legal-call-to-arms-to-remedy-environmental-and-climate-ills (http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-02/a-legal-call-to-arms-to-remedy-environmental-and-climate-ills)

Back on the subject of the thread:
 Australia had its hottest year ever in 2013

One important thing about this event is that it cannot be accounted for by natural variation alone--it has the direct marks of AGW on it:

   
Quote
While many climate extremes cannot be directly attributed to a changing climate, the burden of extremes Australia is experiencing is a product of climate change and requires a coordinated national response.”

    The 2013 record high is also remarkable because it occurred not in an El Nino year (where a warm ocean current can push up temperatures), but a normal year.

    Professor David Karoly, from the School of Earth Sciences at University of Melbourne, says analysis has been made of the temperature record using simulations with nine different climate models that represent the natural variability of Australian average temperatures.

    He says these indicate that greenhouse climate change vastly increased the odds of setting a new temperature record.

    “In the model experiments, it is not possible to reach such a temperature record due to natural climate variations alone
,” Professor Karoly says.

    In simulations with no increases in greenhouse gases, none of the more than 13,000 model years analysed reach the record temperature observed in 2013.

    And in simulations for 2006 to 2020 with natural variability and human influences, including increases in greenhouse gases, such records occur approximately once in every ten years.

    “Hence, this record could not occur due to natural variability alone and is only possible due to the combination of greenhouse climate change and natural variability on Australian average temperature.”
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on January 03, 2014, 03:23:58 PM
The sequence of storms hitting the UK recently has been blamed on the steep temperature gradient over North America, and its effect on the jet stream. Is this related to climate change?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on January 03, 2014, 04:58:33 PM
Hi pikaia,

The below, semi-official, answer:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/uk-weather-how-stormy-has-it-been-and-why/ (http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/uk-weather-how-stormy-has-it-been-and-why/)

"It’s partly due to particularly warm and cold air being squeezed together in the mid-latitudes, where the UK sits. This could be due to nothing more than the natural variability which governs Atlantic weather."

The steep temperature gradient over North America MAY be due to climate change, and is symptomatic of Arctic air escaping to lower latitudes. A WACCY - Warm Arctic Cold Continents - pattern.

Here a realtime map of the jetstream:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=2.56,86.11,304 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=2.56,86.11,304)

The high winds towards the UK/France just happens to have been in almost exactly the same place for several weeks.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2014, 05:05:23 PM
pikaia

idunno is probably more up on this than I am, but I think the general impression is a little more stark than the official weather office explanations as they almost always tend to shy away from any attribution to climate change.

I am not an expert on this and the best info is probably on one of the threads on the ASIB.  But I think the answer is that climate change is definitely a contributing factor.  It is likely that it a significant factor though via the effects of climate change on the melting of the arctic ice, but this conclusion is not yet definitively locked down.

I don't have a link handy but one sees fairly regularly that extreme weather events have increased dramatically over the last 30 years and that alone carries the mark of climate change in that without climate change one would just not see the frequency and intensity of the weather events we are seeing.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 03, 2014, 05:27:28 PM
idunno is probably more up on this than I am, but I think the general impression is a little more stark than the official weather office explanations as they almost always tend to shy away from any attribution to climate change.

I actually find it rather telling that they need to emphasise that it could just be natural variability. They are neither saying it definitely is with that statement (certainly not expressing certainty) and the fact they need to push that assertion at all (in a statement about the weather!) suggests the thought is out there that it could be climate change related - whether amongst the masses realising the weather is out of the ordinary or due to the suggestions of things like the Francis research into jet stream changes.

It's a pity they can't spin it the other way - while we all recognise we cannot absolutely attribute specific events to climate change (and even the scientists cannot go beyond statistical attribution) it is valid to at least say all weather events now have some climate change input and more importantly - it doesn't really matter if it's true or not in the sense that people need to be told that climate change is a serious issue and will cause major problems.

In that last respect it would be strategically worthwhile arguably to tie climate change to bad weather more strongly just to try to reinforce the message amongst the public that climate change is here (it has been for decades now, just strengthening in effects all that time, and strengthening faster more recently) and serious and needs action.

By perpetually playing up the doubts and pushing natural variability as an option the Met Office is supporting the denier side of the arguments - and perhaps intentionally so.

They are certainly failing to use the precautionary principle in continuing to favour non climate change explanations (and more to the point - passing off climate change explanations as natural variability as per their decision a year or so ago that the remarkable rainfall and lack of sunlight was due to jet stream behaviour, with the notable failure to comment that the jet stream was being affected by climate change).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on January 03, 2014, 05:51:10 PM
It is all going to get a whole pile worse in America; where it seems that the whole Arctic is coming to visit, in the next week or so...

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-outbreak-when-the-north-pole-came-to-ohio-16906 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-outbreak-when-the-north-pole-came-to-ohio-16906)

I am not very good at interpreting that jetstream map, but as far as I can tell, wrt the polar vortex, there just isn't one, at the moment. It doesn't seem to have formed at all this year, so Arctic cold can fall out of the Arctic, and will shortly arrive in Ohio.

Is this a result of global warming? It is certainly a predicted consequence of Arctic amplification.

Andrew Freedman's piece above is, as usual from him, excellent.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on January 03, 2014, 06:21:04 PM
And here's more, an earlier piece which forecasts the currently-arriving US Cryogeddon:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-blasts-dominate-december-start-to-january-16902 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-blasts-dominate-december-start-to-january-16902)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2014, 07:08:20 PM
Re the American cold weather.

To me the reaction to this is part of the proof that the climate has changed.  And also that people just have short-term memories.

I grew up in Wyoming at about 5200 ft above sea level.  My memories go back to the late 1950's and I have the stories from my parents who grew up there as well who were born there in 1916 and my grandparents who moved there in the late 1800's. 

This "extreme" cold we are having right now used to be standard fare and no one would have thought much about it.  When I was growing up we had temperatures down to around minus 30F every YEAR.  We thought nothing of playing outside for several hours in this kind of weather when we were kids.  Every few years we would near minus 40F and I saw minus 50F two times.  My mother and father had seen minus 60F.  Where my wife grew up in Wyoming it was even colder than where I grew up.  Blizzards were a several times a year occurrence and the only ones which were remarked upon later were the real killers.  Parts of Wyoming were cut from anything but rail traffic for a full month in a blizzard in 1949 for example.  Or when they were bad enough to kill 20 or 30 thousand cows. 

One of my sisters still lives in the house I grew up in and she says they have not hit minus 30F in 20 years.

I live in Prescott, Arizona now and on the news 2 nights ago the weatherman was saying how lucky we are compared to those in the Midwest because it never gets below 0 deg F here.  Naturally I perk up at this statement and grab the laptop.  Prescott's record low turns out to be minus 22F.  But it was a hundred years ago. 

Thus part of the problem with communicating what we are doing to the world. People do not perceive the change which has already happened so they do not properly react to warnings about the change coming.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 03, 2014, 07:29:29 PM
While I am sure our climate is changing with the jet stream (blocking highs, cutoff lows) acting increasingly strange, this cold outbreak in North America is not unusual. I have lived in Chicago for 50 years and we routinely had periods of sub zero temperatures this time of year in the 1970's and 80's. The winter of 1983 had lows in the -30F range. I remember this well because my oldest was born that winter. This weather feels unusual because the winters have been warming noticeably for several decades.

Loving winter as much as I do, I welcome the cold. I have taken 4 hour hikes along lakefront paths the last 2 days, yesterday in blinding snows. It was beautiful and  peaceful.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 03, 2014, 09:01:11 PM
Good on ya!  When I was young (and much more crazy than now) I used to go backpacking in the winter in Wyoming when it was sometimes down to -30F.  And yes I was sometimes so cold I could not sleep, but I did it anyway.  I went mountain climbing in the winter as well.  Survived an avalanche once.  It is a wonder I am still here.  But is was FUN!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 04, 2014, 11:48:30 PM
idunno wrote:
Quote
wrt the polar vortex, there just isn't one, at the moment. It doesn't seem to have formed at all this year

Is this unusual? Is this evidence that the polar vortex and the (mid-latitude) jet stream have merged already, or are well into the process of doing so?

There's been some discussion of this here and there, but I don't get a sense that there is a consensus among those who follow these things closely here.

Should we start a thread just on this, or is there one already?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on January 05, 2014, 02:39:48 AM
Hi wili,

The first part of that sentence was equally relevent...

"I am not very good at interpreting that jetstream map, but as far as I can tell, ...etc"

;-)

This is not false modesty. Others here will be able to interpret this odd-looking pattern better than me. There is some discussion on the ASIB under the Weird Weather post.

There is some further discussion on here under "where is the polar vortex" or somesuch, and the Guardian is discussing it here...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/04/us-snowstorm-dead-dangerous-wind-cold (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/04/us-snowstorm-dead-dangerous-wind-cold)

...whence I have thrown in a link to Jennifer Francis's work, via Tenney...

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/Jennifer%20Francis (http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/Jennifer%20Francis)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 05, 2014, 08:36:14 PM
Interesting article on atmospheric rivers.

Quote
Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California [Preview]

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed "atmospheric rivers," have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them

Quote
The intense rainstorms sweeping in from the Pacific Ocean began to pound central California on Christmas Eve in 1861 and continued virtually unabated for 43 days. The deluges quickly transformed rivers running down from the Sierra Nevada mountains along the state’s eastern border into raging torrents that swept away entire communities and mining settlements. The rivers and rains poured into the state’s vast Central Valley, turning it into an inland sea 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. Thousands of people died, and one quarter of the state’s estimated 800,000 cattle drowned. Downtown Sacramento was submerged under 10 feet of brown water filled with debris from countless mudslides on the region’s steep slopes. California’s legislature, unable to function, moved to San Francisco until Sacramento dried out—six months later. By then, the state was bankrupt...

Wow. 

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=megastorms-could-down-massive-portions-of-california (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=megastorms-could-down-massive-portions-of-california)

This description is awe inspiring (in a bad way).  We are screwed if this happens again.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 05, 2014, 08:53:12 PM
More on atmospheric rivers

Quote
Abstract

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Quote
An assessment of projections from seven climate models for California [7] suggests an increase in the number of years with high AR frequency, an increase in water vapour transport in ARs and a lengthening of the season in which ARs occur. All of the evidence in that region points towards an enhanced flood risk from ARs ..

Every doomstead should have a row boat?

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010/article (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010/article)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: CraigsIsland on January 06, 2014, 04:57:41 AM
As someone who lives in Sacramento- we're pretty well aware of this possibility; we just prefer moderation; and we're not in that mode right now. Way below precipitation for the year and forecast is glum for the next two weeks. Incredibly persistent blocking high between Alaska and CA. Also- it was warm enough for t-shirts on 65 degree day. Feels like a very weird April already and very dry. Water restrictions have been put into place for several communities. Let's hope for a normal pattern of rainfall.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 06, 2014, 09:44:55 PM
I am sure it was here that I read a link that stated the Southwestern U.S. has received below average precipitation for a decade.

It doesn't help much if you catch up with a 3 month atmospheric river.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 06, 2014, 10:08:21 PM
As we mentioned in one of the other threads the Central Valley has subsided as much as 100 ft in some areas from pumping ground water.  If they had a storm like in 1861 where the storm created a lake 300 by 20 miles in the valley imagine what would happen now.  If might be years before the water dried up in some areas.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 06, 2014, 10:41:55 PM
As we mentioned in one of the other threads the Central Valley has subsided as much as 100 ft in some areas from pumping ground water.  If they had a storm like in 1861 where the storm created a lake 300 by 20 miles in the valley imagine what would happen now.  If might be years before the water dried up in some areas.

If precipitation patterns changed enough you might get permanent or semi-permanent and very variable inland lakes. Imagine trying to practice agriculture or site infrastructure in such a climate?

It's worth noting the later effects of climate change could result in climates we do not currently experience - and perhaps have never experienced during our evolutionary history. The longer term changes will likely be far more profound than just more and worse storms and unusual weather as we are seeing now.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Juan C. García on January 07, 2014, 12:59:52 AM
Is The USA Record Cold Arctic Outbreak Tied To Global Warming?

An article of The Weather Channel, with a reference to a "This is not cool" video with Peter Sinclair, interviews to Dr. Jeff Masters and Jennifer Francis.


http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/arctic-blast-linked-global-warming-20140106 (http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/arctic-blast-linked-global-warming-20140106)

Interesting to see that the Weather Channels makes a link between the Arctic Blast and Global Warming.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: idunno on January 07, 2014, 01:36:26 AM
Hi Juan,

Thanks for that.

That link contains a link to Barnes 2013, new to me, which argues that Francis and Vavrus 2012 is wrong:

http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_2013_GRL_w_supp.pdf (http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_2013_GRL_w_supp.pdf)

As I don't understand either, I'll just note that the science of this ain't settled.

I presume, though, that current events make Francis's work look more robust. She's sure getting a lot of press, the poor soul.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Juan C. García on January 07, 2014, 06:48:03 AM

As I don't understand either, I'll just note that the science of this ain't settled.


Hi idunno:

I don't understand them either. From my point of view, it is easy to affirm that global warming is bringing cold weather when a cold front hits water vapor from a warm ocean. Then we can say that global warming helps to produce the water vapor and a strong snow storm can be related to global warming. But in this Arctic blast, I am not able to relate it to global warming, even that I could see the strange behavior on the jet stream.

But thanks for highlight the Barnes' article. I didn't notice this article in my first reading.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Juan C. García on January 07, 2014, 01:46:27 PM
Very interesting Neven's post on his Arctic Sea Ice Blog, covering the link of global warming and the USA Arctic Blast:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/01/looking-for-winter-weirdness-2014.html#more (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/01/looking-for-winter-weirdness-2014.html#more)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 07, 2014, 03:11:24 PM
That link contains a link to Barnes 2013, new to me, which argues that Francis and Vavrus 2012 is wrong:

See Chris Reynolds' discussion on this very topic:

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/francisvavrus-and-slower-jetstream.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/francisvavrus-and-slower-jetstream.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on January 08, 2014, 03:26:48 PM
Two snippets of some interest I’ve had under my eyes today:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FSST1000Mbano05012014Antarcticadetail_zpsb6062cbb.jpg&hash=c3f25b5d200930ab4137d6871ca21020)
A detail of Skin Surface Temps/SST around Antarctica for 05012014. I’ve noticed the rim of anomalous warmer water around large parts of the continent before through the last years. There may not be much significance. But it could be a signal of upwelling deeper water. With exception of the Weddell Sea, most coasts show widening open water the last few days.
If there’s a relation with the THC, this is one of the signs to look for.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FMaunaLoaCO22small_zpsc9c8d9db.jpg&hash=19bcd4aa10ff2ef13e5063f93f95b833)
Second, I’ve been playing around with some ‘weekly average CO2 Mauna Loa’ data from ESRL.
Since 01012010 the upwards rush from November to May has become a bit steeper each next year. There’s also indication that it lasts longer. The downslopes, as NH growth season inhales CO2, are more or less the same. OK, maybe there’s more emission. Or the carbon sinks become weaker. Whatever, this is not going in the necessary direction. The weeklies will get over 400ppm third week of march; at least three monthlies will go over 400 this year…
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 09, 2014, 11:35:44 PM
Well....you have your "canary in the coal mine" but you also have your "bats in the belfry".



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/08/dead-bats-fall-from-sky-queensland-australia_n_4563450.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/08/dead-bats-fall-from-sky-queensland-australia_n_4563450.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2014, 03:26:21 AM
SH

It will get worse than the article states now too.

What do bats do?  They consume up to 5 times their weight every night in bugs.  So you wipe out a big percentage of the bats and you are quickly going to have a bug problem.  Organic farmers are going to be hit.

At our farm we had bat houses built onto the sides of the farm buildings just so they would reduce the bug presence.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on January 10, 2014, 05:40:52 PM
Bats don't just eat bugs. They are also an important pollinator.

Quote
Over 300 species of fruit depend on bats for pollination. These fruits include:

mangoes
bananas
guavas
http://www.fs.fed.us/wildflowers/pollinators/animals/bats.shtml (http://www.fs.fed.us/wildflowers/pollinators/animals/bats.shtml)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on January 10, 2014, 06:38:57 PM
Apparently, bat dung also makes good loft insulation. That must help to reduce CO2 emissions!  :)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2014, 08:05:23 PM
Apparently, bat dung also makes good loft insulation. That must help to reduce CO2 emissions!  :)

And you could grow mushrooms in it.  A win win situation?  :o
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JackTaylor on January 11, 2014, 11:27:15 PM
Bat Dung ! ! It is not an inconsequential item of history.

Only a couple of centuries back, bat guano (interesting subject) was a prized agriculture fertilizer.
Still touted by some organic gardeners, but be aware of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoplasmosis (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoplasmosis)

Some folks are of the belief because moisture causes leeching of ammonia (nitrogen) from bat guano during trade/distribution, degrading quality, to stay out of ship bilge water it was marked in containers and was the infamous product labeled
Ship High In Transit.

Contributes to our "vernacular expressions" ? ?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 13, 2014, 12:54:28 PM
Record number of typhoons hit Japan this past autumn
http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/record-number-of-typhoons-hit-japan-this-past-autumn (http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/record-number-of-typhoons-hit-japan-this-past-autumn)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jmo on January 14, 2014, 04:45:07 AM
Hi all
I'm sure the "winter weirdness" and links to GW will be an ongoing debate.  This blog seems fairly articulate.  is this another example of simply another opinion?  seems to be able to back up claims with long-term observations re historical weather events and the possible skewing of circumpolar vortex observations...
I am a concerned observer, not a climate scientist.  :D

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com.au/ (http://cliffmass.blogspot.com.au/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 14, 2014, 06:37:20 PM
Jmo

Yes Prof Mass is an articulate author and seems to be an expert in Meteorology, but perhaps not climate science.  There is a difference between the two.  Though it is a lot better having him talk about it instead of someone without a relevant degree who thinks they know it all.

Everything he talks about and tons more can be found in the various topics of the Forum and the ASIB.  His opinion that climate change is not effecting the jet stream is represented there as well as contrary opinions.  It seems the jury is out still on this subject.

Quote
...But a few researchers came up with a hypothesis that as the poles warm the jet stream would weaken and that would result in more waviness of the jet stream.  However, recent work by Professor Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State has shown that there were methodological deficiencies in the research suggesting increased jet undulations with global warming. And that there is no observational evidence of increased waviness.  Furthermore, there is little evidence that the jet approaching North America has weakened recently. 
...

Note that there are already critiques of Barnes work out there questioning her methodology.  Lots to learn here still.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jmo on January 15, 2014, 12:23:58 AM
Thanks JimD.  :)  Just as I thought.  It seems to me that the likelihood of AGW not having an impact is quite low, but as you say, there is still much to learn.  I asked the question, since it was one of the better blogs I'd seen rationally arguing that it may not be as portrayed by "alarmists" or "skeptics" = the authors view that both are wrong.  What's concerning is the lack of change based on what we already know.  I keep reflecting on the mantra that if we are wrong and do positive things, we have only improved our world.  If we are right and do little (or nothing)...
It should be a no-brainer!   ;D
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 16, 2014, 01:42:44 PM
I don't know if it is linked to climate but for sure it is weird !
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/world/americas/rising-tide-is-a-mystery-that-sinks-island-hopes.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/world/americas/rising-tide-is-a-mystery-that-sinks-island-hopes.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 16, 2014, 04:47:20 PM
I wonder if the lead up to the 2010 earthquake messed with the internal plumbing in the region?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 16, 2014, 05:55:13 PM
May be or these lakes are connected with the sea ?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on January 16, 2014, 06:55:28 PM
Subsistance?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 16, 2014, 07:22:10 PM
I am reading a book right now about the paleo-climate history of water in the Western US right now and it has a description of similar effects.

It could be just enough increased rainfall that the natural process of hydration of the soil, filling of aquifers and change in evaporative effects has crossed a tipping point and the lake is growing towards a new normal.

This process has repeated many times in the Western US (we are in the opposite direction right now) as the climate has shifted as we went in and out of glacial periods.  A large percentage of the Great Basin was covered by very large lakes at different times in the past.  Now it is bone dry deserts and heading towards even greater dryness.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 19, 2014, 05:47:22 PM
2013 Australia temperature extremes

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/01/off-charts-2013-australias-hottest-year.html (http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/01/off-charts-2013-australias-hottest-year.html)

And 2014 is off to a good start too.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2014, 01:21:05 AM
More Aussie temp stuff.  Temps in the low 120F's.   Brrr?

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/australia-2014-heat-wave-picks-up-where-2013-left-off-16938 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/australia-2014-heat-wave-picks-up-where-2013-left-off-16938)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 21, 2014, 03:01:16 PM
Another anecdote from the Phillipines:

"Super typhoon victims flee again as rains flood southern Philippines (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/01/21/us-philippines-floods-idUKBREA0K09920140121)"

Quote
Hundreds of survivors of Typhoon Haiyan, one of the strongest storms ever to make landfall, were forced to flee by tropical depression "Agaton" after emergency shelters were damaged or destroyed on the eastern central island of Samar.

Tents collapsed under the weight of the rain and emergency plastic sheets have been torn away, humanitarian agency Oxfam said.


Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on January 22, 2014, 07:52:35 AM
I wish people in this thread would make an effort to be more scientific about their climate attribution statements. The majority of weather events documented in this thread are likely unrelated to climate change (or likely to become less common).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on January 22, 2014, 10:38:27 AM
The original subject in this thread is about personal experience. I've re-read some posts from the start and wonder why I should worry on a likely unscientific attitude in our posters to attribute any single event to climate change.
Most of us perfectly know the difference and where to look for the best scientific information on what's unknown, what's probable, likely or 'very likely'. If a claim is doubtful, correct it as good as you can specifically.
An event trailing through this thread almost from the beginning is the Californian drought. A potentially very awful event. One that should have the best attention to find out how it is interrelated with the process of global warming.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 22, 2014, 12:05:24 PM
Good, thoughtful reply, werther.

I would just also like to point to the word "anecdotal" in the title of the thread. I'm not sure what aspect of that word lead our friend AP to expect that this was a thread on rigorous scientific attribution studies (though he is welcome to post any such here or elsewhere, of course). There are plenty of other threads for that.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 22, 2014, 01:26:07 PM
Werther & Wili - Quite so.

Andrew - Do you have any anecdotal stories about "weird weather" that you'd care to share with us?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on January 22, 2014, 05:37:35 PM
We've had lovely spring temperatures here in the low 70s to high 60s for the last several weeks (California northern Bay Area). Average temps for this time of year are in the mid 50s. The air quality sucks because there's been no rain to cleanse it and no wind to disperse it. I keep trying to enjoy the warm weather but my subconscious keeps whispering just how wrong it is. If El Nino does develop, this summer is going to be hellish.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: CraigsIsland on January 22, 2014, 06:02:56 PM
I feel the same way about our weather here in northern ca. Just weird and unfortunate at the moment.

Also- I have pondering how I can conserve water without breaking budgets. I.e watering the lawn has reduced but should I be thinking about covering the sparse grass with something. It's already very dusty.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 22, 2014, 06:20:57 PM
I wish people in this thread would make an effort to be more scientific about their climate attribution statements. The majority of weather events documented in this thread are likely unrelated to climate change (or likely to become less common).

I think this is the point of this thread. There are many threads on this site that are rigorous in their analysis, much of which I struggle to follow. I took anecdotal to mean just that.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 22, 2014, 07:42:37 PM
I wish people in this thread would make an effort to be more scientific about their climate attribution statements. The majority of weather events documented in this thread are likely unrelated to climate change (or likely to become less common).

I think this is the point of this thread. There are many threads on this site that are rigorous in their analysis, much of which I struggle to follow. I took anecdotal to mean just that.

I think that was clarified within the first three posts in any case... I asked a very similar question in #2.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on January 22, 2014, 07:57:17 PM
I wasn't expecting scientific attribution in this thread. I wasn't expecting attribution at all.

What I am objecting to is false attribution.

Talking about weather is fine. That's the point of the thread. Making false attribution statements is never OK, in any thread.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 22, 2014, 08:57:24 PM
Great. Then point to a specific instance of someone falsely attributing a specific weather event to GW and then we have something to discuss. Otherwise you might be accused of falsely attributing a false attribution to people! ;D

Really, though. Waltzing into a discussion and lambasting essentially all discussants with an unsupported accusation is...not a particularly productive mode of engagement--one might even call it rather trollish. Just sayin'.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: CraigsIsland on January 22, 2014, 09:31:22 PM
I wasn't expecting scientific attribution in this thread. I wasn't expecting attribution at all.

What I am objecting to is false attribution.

Talking about weather is fine. That's the point of the thread. Making false attribution statements is never OK, in any thread.

I think an example of what you would criticize would be something like "it's dry here- must be that darned sea ice melting from 20 years ago" without any evidence to back it up. Honestly - I don't know if that blocking high over the pacific is being cause by AGW - maybe somehow - but I know I can't make that statement because I can't prove without scientific basis that is what's happening. I could guess but I that's just rubbish in this thread.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on January 22, 2014, 10:54:55 PM
Great. Then point to a specific instance of someone falsely attributing a specific weather event to GW and then we have something to discuss. Otherwise you might be accused of falsely attributing a false attribution to people! ;D

Really, though. Waltzing into a discussion and lambasting essentially all discussants with an unsupported accusation is...not a particularly productive mode of engagement--one might even call it rather trollish. Just sayin'.

Well to begin with the frequent attribution of cold events to AGW. The attribution of blocking to AGW. Also the attribution of storminess in the UK to AGW. The blanket statement that research bodies are improperly attributing weather to natural variability.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on January 23, 2014, 12:08:08 AM
Well to begin with the frequent attribution of cold events to AGW. The attribution of blocking to AGW. Also the attribution of storminess in the UK to AGW. The blanket statement that research bodies are improperly attributing weather to natural variability.

Speaking for myself, but I think also quite a few others, I don't attribute, but I do speculate. Maybe if Arctic sea ice stops disappearing so spectacularly, I will speculate less. May we speculate about a link between AGW and weather extremes?

As for the weather outside my window: It looks like southeastern Austria is finally getting some cold temps and snow. Winter has two more months to show its face here. It was almost 15 °C a couple of days ago, which is a bit too much for mid-January. If that happens too often, I'll start attributing.  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 23, 2014, 09:45:36 AM
Also the attribution of storminess in the UK to AGW. The blanket statement that research bodies are improperly attributing weather to natural variability.

At the risk of drifting off topic, here's some recent local research concerning my own personal anecdotes (see the top of the thread):

http://econnexus.org/does-the-arctic-sea-ice-influence-weather-in-the-south-west/ (http://econnexus.org/does-the-arctic-sea-ice-influence-weather-in-the-south-west/)

Quote
This study has provided evidence of a causal link between observed Arctic sea ice changes, the large-scale atmospheric circulation and increased summer Northern European Precipitation. The simulated NEP response is relatively small compared to simulated year-to-year variability. However, the simulated summer NEP response is statistically significant (p = 0.05) in the large ensemble presented here.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on January 23, 2014, 02:16:04 PM
Paper is for summer not winter. It's also borderline for significance.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 23, 2014, 04:27:49 PM
Paper is for summer not winter. It's also borderline for significance.

My own original speculations about local "weird weather" occurred  in summer, not winter. How significant do the stats need to become before the discussion can turn from "anecdotal weird weather" to "scientific climate change"?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on January 23, 2014, 05:20:12 PM
I think it's possible to speculate about mechanisms behind events before there's statistical significance. Do I have to run into a tree before I can decide whether I have a flat tyre?  ;D
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 23, 2014, 06:36:06 PM
Also the attribution of storminess in the UK to AGW. The blanket statement that research bodies are improperly attributing weather to natural variability.

At the risk of drifting off topic, here's some recent local research concerning my own personal anecdotes (see the top of the thread):

http://econnexus.org/does-the-arctic-sea-ice-influence-weather-in-the-south-west/ (http://econnexus.org/does-the-arctic-sea-ice-influence-weather-in-the-south-west/)

Quote
This study has provided evidence of a causal link between observed Arctic sea ice changes, the large-scale atmospheric circulation and increased summer Northern European Precipitation. The simulated NEP response is relatively small compared to simulated year-to-year variability. However, the simulated summer NEP response is statistically significant (p = 0.05) in the large ensemble presented here.

Sounds like those researchers may be speculating. We can't have any of that, can we?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AndrewP on January 23, 2014, 09:54:35 PM
Paper is for summer not winter. It's also borderline for significance.

My own original speculations about local "weird weather" occurred  in summer, not winter. How significant do the stats need to become before the discussion can turn from "anecdotal weird weather" to "scientific climate change"?

The text of mine you quoted was in reference to someone talking about winter storminess (probably a vague reference to the Francis paper).

 I'd say there needs to be some sort of widespread scientific agreement before we can be confident in a conclusion.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 25, 2014, 05:38:25 AM
This goes a bit beyond "weird weather," but I couldn't find a thread where we specifically discussed this. NOVA has an overview of the Haiyan disaster here:

http://video.pbs.org/video/2365160389/ (http://video.pbs.org/video/2365160389/)

At about minute 35 there is some discussion of GW.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 25, 2014, 02:07:57 PM
I'd say there needs to be some sort of widespread scientific agreement before we can be confident in a conclusion.

The only problem is, as Neven suggests, it doesn't look like we can wait for 30n years for a consensus to emerge. Actually n = -1 would have been nice?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 26, 2014, 02:33:24 PM
Some nices photos of a downpoor in sommerset (GB)
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10587562/In-pics-Photographer-Matilda-Temperley-witnesses-flooding-on-Somerset-Levels.html?frame=2797945 (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/10587562/In-pics-Photographer-Matilda-Temperley-witnesses-flooding-on-Somerset-Levels.html?frame=2797945)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on January 31, 2014, 05:00:24 PM
The great northern loop of the jet stream seems to have pretty well broken up now. What will the consequences of that be?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-130.79,51.76,328 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-130.79,51.76,328)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 31, 2014, 06:06:12 PM
The great northern loop of the jet stream seems to have pretty well broken up now. What will the consequences of that be?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-130.79,51.76,328 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-130.79,51.76,328)

That jet stream looks like it could bring Pacific moisture to the parched west coast of the U.S. The high pressure ridge in the North Pacific is still hanging in there but the jet stream has decided to dip south of it instead of looping north.

If you click and drag to get a polar view of the jet, the jet stream over Asia looks very strange. It's as if the jet streams have merged. The proviso, of course, is that I don't know what I am talking about.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 31, 2014, 06:11:26 PM
On the news here last night it said about 3/4 inch of moisture (a pittance, but not to be turned down either) in the Sierras but basically none here in Arizona (and there has only been sprinkles in the northern part of the state.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on February 02, 2014, 09:58:54 PM
Hey, maybe one of you can help me with this question. Like I said last week winter has finally come to this part of Austria. It's been snowing and freezing, all is fine and well. However, in the last 2-3 days it has been raining even though it's freezing. Even at night when it's -3 to -4 °C, or lower. You would expect snow or hail, but we get rain. How is this possible? My car has an ice coating, and it's really slippery out there.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on February 02, 2014, 10:19:13 PM
Freezing rain.  The ground is colder than the air above.....thus at "cloud height" it is rain...but it freezes on contact.  We used to get that in Oregon every once in a while...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on February 02, 2014, 11:14:25 PM
Freezing rain.  The ground is colder than the air above.....thus at "cloud height" it is rain...but it freezes on contact.  We used to get that in Oregon every once in a while...

It's quite unusual though. The Moscow ice storm a few years back was the first time it had happened in living memory there I think? Someone pointed out to me (quite some time after the event) all the trees that had fallen due to the weight of the ice on them.

There was another similar event in the Krasnodar region this winter, not quite so severe I don't think though (didn't make international news anyway).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on February 02, 2014, 11:27:53 PM
Freezing rain.  The ground is colder than the air above.....thus at "cloud height" it is rain...but it freezes on contact.  We used to get that in Oregon every once in a while...

Thanks, Buddy. I had already concluded that the air must be warmer up above than down below, even though this didn't make sense to me. Sure, rain followed by freezing temps at night causing slippery conditions, but rain during freezing temps...

It's a first for me, and for a couple of people I spoke to in my village. I'll keep an eye on Austrian media to see if they say something about it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: crandles on February 03, 2014, 12:50:02 AM
I am no expert but I had a couple of thoughts.

A temperature inversion. Common in the Arctic but not so common elsewhere.

I also wondered about the topography around you - If you are a long way above a nearby deep valley, rising warm moist air could cause rain. If this is the cause then presumably it shouldn't be uncommon for your location but if you have moved recently perhaps you are not used to such topography?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 03, 2014, 03:57:21 AM
Actually guys freezing rain is very common in the eastern US in the winter.  When I lived in northern Virginia we would get a freezing rain storm at least a couple of times a year.  They happen from the mid-Atlantic up to New York every year.  There was bad freezing rain in the south of the US just a week or so ago.

It can sometimes end up an 1" thick and this does not just break trees it will break telephone poles.

It is a phenomenon that is more common in places which are on the borders between where it is common for both warm and cold air masses to exist in winter.  One gets a period of well below freezing and then a warm front comes from the south and it rains down onto the frozen ground.  It is the worst kind of storm there is.  A big snowstorm is much to be preferred.  If it is really rare where you live Neven it could be one of those indicators of a warming climate.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on February 03, 2014, 11:17:32 AM
Thanks for the explanation, guys. I looked it up some more and it is indeed caused by warmer air masses where snow from the clouds thaws and doesn't re-freeze until it hits the ground. We live in that part of Austria (rolling hills) where three climates meet: Alpine, Adriatic and the Pannonian plain. These shift continuously and make it really difficult to forecast weather. This time there were warm air masses coming in from the southwest, causing record snowfall in Carinthia, and freezing rain over here. Maybe I experienced it in the Netherlands, but never noticed it.

Oh, and BTW, I never meant to imply this has something to do with AGW, although every event is now of course influenced by it.  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: greylib on February 03, 2014, 01:17:52 PM
Freezing rain isn't uncommon in the UK. It killed my mother-in-law about ten years ago, when (age 89) she insisted on walking to the shops along dangerously slippery pavements. Fell, broke hip, went to hospital, picked up infection, came out in a box.

The one I remember best is funnier. The 1963 winter, we had a couple of feet of snow, then a crust of freezing rain, then another 18 inches of snow. If you were very careful you could wade through the top layer of snow without breaking the crust. Get it wrong, or find a bit that was already broken, and you suddenly dropped.  Good fun for a bunch of teenagers!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 03, 2014, 04:48:18 PM
Freezing rain events in North America have historically occurred in the southern half of the U.S. It has been my impression that the incidence of freezing rain events has shifted north. Couldn't this be a result of the tortured jet streams that we are getting? It would allow warm moist air intrusions farther north which could trigger freezing rain events. We have had some severe freezing rain events in the far Northeast of the U.S. and Canada in the past several winters.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 03, 2014, 06:00:53 PM
I believe we are seeing issues from 'frozen rain further north? instead of the first winter snows they now get the first winter rains which freeze on impact putting a glaze onto the rocks and land surface. This is causing issues for the Reindeer herders as their animals can't break through the glaze to get at the lichen below . They have found that if they castrate the males they put on weight
 and so find it easier to break through to the food below.....poor boys.....
 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 03:12:21 PM
Here's some info on the Great Canadian Ice Storm of 1998:

http://canadaonline.about.com/cs/weather/p/icestorm.htm (http://canadaonline.about.com/cs/weather/p/icestorm.htm)

http://globalnews.ca/news/1045228/looking-back-at-the-ice-storm-of-1998/ (http://globalnews.ca/news/1045228/looking-back-at-the-ice-storm-of-1998/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 04:04:46 PM
Just a thought:
If another similar extreme ice storm hasn't happened since 1998, one may have cause to wonder if the conditions that caused it were related to the conditions that caused 1998 to be the hottest year on record, globally....   

(Well, 1998 was the hottest, until 2013 apparently topped it, as of a few days ago:
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html (http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html) )
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: crandles on February 04, 2014, 05:03:15 PM
(Well, 1998 was the hottest, until 2013 apparently topped it, as of a few days ago:
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html (http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html) )

Umm,

Quote
This reconstruction ranks 2013 as the fifth warmest year on record and it ranks 1998 in seventh place, even though 2013 did not include an El Nino event like that seen in 1998. The original Met Office HadCRUT4 time series ranks 2013 as tied in sixth place behind 1998 in third place.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 05:41:05 PM
Whoops.  :-[.   Still, way hot.   ::)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 08:27:05 PM
Winter rain, leading to ice (and avalanches) in Alaska.  Worst since the 1920's-1930's.

http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20140128/forget-snowfall-winter-rain-becoming-new-normal-alaska-and-arctic (http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20140128/forget-snowfall-winter-rain-becoming-new-normal-alaska-and-arctic)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 04, 2014, 11:59:09 PM
Just a thought:
If another similar extreme ice storm hasn't happened since 1998, one may have cause to wonder if the conditions that caused it were related to the conditions that caused 1998 to be the hottest year on record, globally....   

(Well, 1998 was the hottest, until 2013 apparently topped it, as of a few days ago:
http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html (http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/reconstructed-data-ranks-2013-hotter-than-1998-el-nino-year.html) )

There actually have been severe ice storms since this event. This paper studies whether the incidence or severity of ice storm events has increased and the results are inconclusive. Unfortunately, the study focused only on the Southern US so it does not address my concern that the geographical regions susceptible to ice storms are moving north and east. This paper does suggest that ENSO has an impact on ice storms.

http://www.caps.ou.edu/reu/reu10/papers/Kovacik.pdf (http://www.caps.ou.edu/reu/reu10/papers/Kovacik.pdf)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 05, 2014, 01:20:20 PM
The rain here isn't freezing, and there's lots of it. The latest BBC report on the string of storms here in South Devon:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26042990 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-26042990)

Quote
David Cameron will chair a meeting of the Cobra emergency committee later to consider the government's response.

It is the first time this year that the prime minister will have chaired a meeting of Cobra to discuss the floods and follows widespread criticism of Environment Secretary Owen Paterson's handling of the crisis.

Apparently there's another storm due on Thursday, followed by one more on Saturday. According to the BBC's weather man:

Quote
As long as the jetstream continues to be in a locked position, we will continue to see storm after storm.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on February 05, 2014, 02:30:57 PM
Hi Jim,
This does look pretty awful near you today:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FDawlish05022014small_zps27a75eaf.jpg&hash=5b6d65cfb9a457ba0a745587d7aa2f51)[/URL]
The train track hangs suspended where the seawall is supposed to have been...

Contemplate what's damaging... the rain, the winds, the waves, what more?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 05, 2014, 04:22:20 PM
Jim,

I would expect there is a good chance they will be followed by 2-3 more as we have a string of big storms ripping across the US heading your way.  Quite the winter.  It has convinced a lot of the masses (who want to be convinced of course) that all is well and there is no AGW.

Peoples perceptions are so easily skewed.  The people we bought our house from last year were leaving here (Prescott AZ) and moving to Florida because it was getting too cold here compared to when they first moved here.  But the weather records indicate that every year since 1980 has been above average and our average over the last 5 years is a good 1C above the long term average. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 05, 2014, 10:20:13 PM
Northeast US socked by a snow & ice storm in the last 24 hours.  700,000 currently without power in Pennsylvania alone, and temps going down to around 18°F for the next week.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/snow-ice-confound-commute-knock-out-power-latest-blast-n22516 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deep-freeze/snow-ice-confound-commute-knock-out-power-latest-blast-n22516)

More ice: Slovenia got up to 6 inches of it last weekend.
Raw video:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WI41yWgqglg&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DWI41yWgqglg (http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=WI41yWgqglg&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DWI41yWgqglg)
Photos:
http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTX187ZC&slide=1 (http://www.reuters.com/news/pictures/slideshow?articleId=USRTX187ZC&slide=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on February 06, 2014, 12:54:03 PM
And as California goes.....so goes Brazil:)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-brazil-heat-idUSBREA0U1PM20140131 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-brazil-heat-idUSBREA0U1PM20140131)

They are suffering from the same type of anomaly that the western US is suffering from:  A "stuck" high pressure system off the coast that doesn't want to leave.

Brazil recorded its driest and warmest January EVER.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Polynya88 on February 06, 2014, 04:18:22 PM
And as California goes.....so goes Brazil:)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-brazil-heat-idUSBREA0U1PM20140131 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/31/us-brazil-heat-idUSBREA0U1PM20140131)

They are suffering from the same type of anomaly that the western US is suffering from:  A "stuck" high pressure system off the coast that doesn't want to leave.

Brazil recorded its driest and warmest January EVER.

I wonder if it is what is affecting the NE? The great lakes are nearing a 33 yr. record for amount of ice coverage - see attached graph.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on February 06, 2014, 04:36:47 PM
Polynya88:

The predominant high pressure ridge that has been "camped" off the California coast for about 13 months carries storms up over the ridge to the north into Alaska and then down into the middle of the country and then over to the northeast US.

I assume that is the reason for the high level of ice coverage for the Great Lakes (which is a GOOD THING by the way.....since the temperature of the Great Lakes has increase a  few degrees over the last 30 years partly because of DECREASING ice coverage over that time).

Of course.....the interesting thing......is that while that cold air has come down from the Arctic and into BOTH North America and Russia.......the Arctic and Alaska have been ABNORMALLY WARM.

Going to be interesting to see what the effects are going to be on the upcoming melt season in the Arctic come April - September.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on February 08, 2014, 10:44:04 AM
BTW, I just checked ECMWF for the next 10 days. If the prediction fulfills, there's only monday 10 and sunday 16 for a brief relief in the seemingly endless stormchain hitting Western Europe...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 08, 2014, 12:50:53 PM
Hi Werther!
I think we have to look to the spring migration north of the polar Jet for any chance of respite here in the UK?

As it drifts north over the coming months it'll drag the storm tracks with it leaving us to the south with less rainfall/wind impacts and the prospect of Azores or European highs drifting in to settle us down ?

Should we not see any shift in that high over N. Pacific then I worry about the upcoming tornado season in the U.S.? Any more outbreaks will increasingly meet with airs coming up from the Gulf and spawn some very nasty weather ( possibly further north than is normal if the cold is intense?)

The other 'wonder' I'm having is whether any nino turns 'super'? The last 2 Supers were 15 years apart and , as a recent paper noted, we are to expect the period between such events to alter from the current 20 year spacing to one of only 10 years? 16 years since 98' and forecasts now shifting toward a Nino forming over summer?

The 9 month Nino of 2010 saw a huge volume drop over the Arctic ocean so what will a 'normal' 18 month Nino do to both 2014 and 2015's melt figures? 2007 saw our perfect melt storm. we found then that they were coming around every 10 to 20 years with the two before 07' only having ten years between them.

Two Nino influenced years and then a return of the 'perfect melt storm synoptic right on their heels? 2017 melt out guys?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on February 08, 2014, 11:57:44 PM
Interesting, Grey-Wolf...
I have all that sort of things running around my mind. Without content to stave. Yet. I'm expecting the stored energy in the deeper ocean layers to come up and haunt us. It could be in the form of an old-fashioned but strong El Nino. It could be an altered form too...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: RaenorShine on February 09, 2014, 12:41:22 PM
The UK Met Office is increasingly convinced the current conveyor belt of storms the UK are receiving (and other weird NH weather) are linked to climate change

Quote
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms.

"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 09, 2014, 12:56:22 PM
The UK Met Office is increasingly convinced the current conveyor belt of storms the UK are receiving (and other weird NH weather) are linked to climate change

Quote
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms.

"But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-26084625)

Well that will set the domestic Feline among the feral rock doves!!!

The more folk are forced to look at the teleconnections between events the better their view of what is happening (IMHO). The link between ocean temps, ice losses, Jet streams, moisture content of the air etc,etc has to be a good thing? It will drive the misleaders crazy though!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 09, 2014, 09:05:27 PM
The Met Office report behind Dr Slingo's comments is here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf)

My blog post on it is here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/met-office-chief-evidence-suggests.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/met-office-chief-evidence-suggests.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ccgwebmaster on February 09, 2014, 11:00:49 PM
The Met Office report behind Dr Slingo's comments is here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/n/i/Recent_Storms_Briefing_Final_07023.pdf)

My blog post on it is here:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/met-office-chief-evidence-suggests.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/02/met-office-chief-evidence-suggests.html)

Seems they're shifting to the common sense side of the fence now... after a tendency of dogmatically labelling UK extreme weather as "just weather" and refusing to even speculate on if the jet stream changes might, in fact, be a contributing factor.

Just wait for it, they'll be ceding their sea ice position next...

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2012/mar/14/met-office-arctic-sea-ice-loss-winter)

Quote
Slingo also dismissed fears that the Arctic could be entirely free of sea ice in summer as soon as 2015. Between 2025 and 2030 would be the earliest date she would consider it possible, she said, and the Met Office's latest models suggested 2040-60 as most likely. "Our expectation is certainly not in the next few years as you've heard from some evidence," she said.

I'm still with Wadhams, Duarte, Maslowski, etc here of course...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 10, 2014, 07:55:56 AM
The Met Office are very conservative, when the evidence gets strong enough, they'll shift. And as the process will proceed - they definitely will shift.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 10, 2014, 04:11:12 PM
after three winters with quite much snow and colder temperatures than for about 20 years, southern finland might again return to the new normal. we had some 3.5 weeks of cold and the current view on the nearby river looks like this:


here's where we played hockey after school pretty exactly 36 years ago (in fairness, this is not the first winter of no skating after school in winter):(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 14, 2014, 05:34:28 AM
It just keeps getting worse in Great Britain.

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/02/uks-ongoing-nightmare.html (http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/02/uks-ongoing-nightmare.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 14, 2014, 04:41:34 PM
And while the Eastern US and Great Britain are having wet cold winters Brazil is getting cooked.

Record Brazil heat pressures crops, energy prices – Northeast is in worst drought in at least 50 years, hundreds of thousands of cattle have died

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/ (http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on February 14, 2014, 06:03:45 PM
And while the Eastern US and Great Britain are having wet cold winters Brazil is getting cooked.

Record Brazil heat pressures crops, energy prices – Northeast is in worst drought in at least 50 years, hundreds of thousands of cattle have died

http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/ (http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/)

This is one of the reasons I think ag failure prior to ~2050. More and more extremes in more and more places will continue to assault our ability to produce food. I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 14, 2014, 08:19:07 PM
ritter

Prior to 2050 is certainly possible.  All it takes is several things going really wrong at the same time in critical locations to put us on the edge.

If one looks out about 20 years and the water supply problems coming are then kicking in in India, China and the American Midwest (and maybe the Central Valley of CA) all it would take is the right combination of simultaneous crop failures in a couple of the other main grain growing regions and ....
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on February 21, 2014, 07:40:41 PM
Thunder snow, torrential rain then heavy freeze. All from 9 PM. & 10:30 PM between Hamilton and Cambridge in Southwestern Ontario.
This morning everything is back to 'normal' with strong gusts of very cold wind. Old timers are claiming that this winter is the coldest and snowiest that they recall. The Grand River has frozen over for only the second time in the past 10 years.
The lightning display was extreme and a transformer was blown off a power pole as I awaited a light change on the drive home. I'd snowshoed across the river earlier in the week, not sure I'd trust the ice now.
Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on February 26, 2014, 08:59:23 AM
I’ve routinely checked the graphs and some weather stuff, like ECMWF, CPC.

The likely prognosis for the 10-day range is suggesting an early date for the sea ice maximum. Having been under attack in waves all winter, the Polar Vortex seems prone to receive a final blow next week.
At the dawn of spring, North America will be presented with the last swath of Arctic winter cold. Over Siberia a large low level high pressure zone will emerge.
In between, under the split, the Pole will be accessible for a strong Southern influx of spring warmth.

It is tempting to correlate all of this to the developing phase change in the Pacific.

When this pans out together, we can be almost certain to witness a very interesting Northern Hemisphere summertime. It is very unlikely the pattern over the Arctic will result in another cold spring. I doubt if there’s much sense in making comparisons to earlier years. This system is progressively out of balance.

Thanks for being patient with me being superficially alarmed. I have not much priority for more elaboration or selection of graphs/analysis. I’m busy with local elections for our green party. Couldn’t be a better time to do that.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 26, 2014, 03:28:02 PM
If I were more informed (and I'm not) and were a betting man (also no) I would bet we are going to hit a new record minimum this melt season.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on February 26, 2014, 04:14:36 PM
I think that would be a reasonable bet.  The long term trend is your friend....and it says less ice in future years.  And then there is that "small issue" of physics being on your side:)

I think we're heading to a September 2016 "mostly iceless" Arctic with the exception of maybe a couple hundred mile width that will stretch along the Canadian Archipelago to the north/northeastern coast of Greenland.

 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 26, 2014, 06:14:36 PM
I think that would be a reasonable bet.  The long term trend is your friend....and it says less ice in future years.  And then there is that "small issue" of physics being on your side:)

I think we're heading to a September 2016 "mostly iceless" Arctic with the exception of maybe a couple hundred mile width that will stretch along the Canadian Archipelago to the north/northeastern coast of Greenland.

If we do hit a new record minimum, it will be a lot more ice than that.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on February 26, 2014, 07:33:56 PM
If we do hit a new record minimum, it will be a lot more ice than that.

For this year........I totally agree.   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 28, 2014, 03:17:40 AM
I decided to look at drought globally with the craziness in weather and jet streams etc. There is major drought for extended periods in areas such as Australia and Brazil, as commented above. However there are more major areas in drought not being discussed.

For example, Istanbul, Turkey has less than a 100 days water supply - and they are heading into spring and summer with bone dry conditions for agriculture. Singapore is rationing, as are parts of Malaysia.

I have more over in my blog using the NCDC Global Drought Portal to illustrate.

See: http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/ (http://a4rglobalmethanetracking.blogspot.com/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 02, 2014, 01:47:04 PM
An interesting report from the JMA featured on the WMO website, about the pattern of extreme weather experienced over the first 6 weeks of 2014.
 
 
Parts of the world have witnessed a series of extreme weather conditions in the first six weeks of 2014, continuing a pattern that was set in December 2013.
Much of the United States of America has experienced cold waves and major winter storms, whilst California remains gripped by drought.
The United Kingdom has seen its wettest December-January period on record, with severe, widespread and prolonged flooding. A combination of strong winds, storms and high tides caused damage and flooding in other coastal areas of Europe. There has been unusually heavy snowfall in the southern Alps.
Monthly mean temperatures were extremely high from eastern Mongolia to eastern China.
In the Southern hemisphere, Australia, Argentina and Brazil  experienced extended heatwaves.
Throughout this period, national meteorological and hydrological services provided forecasts and regularly-updated warnings.

 
 
The full report is here http://www.wmo.int/p...oftheworld.html (http://www.wmo.int/p...oftheworld.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on March 19, 2014, 12:21:44 AM
The capital of Eritrea in the horn of Africa hit by freak hailstorm.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-city-flooded-ice-rain-article-1.1721933 (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-city-flooded-ice-rain-article-1.1721933)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 19, 2014, 01:28:53 AM
The capital of Eritrea in the horn of Africa hit by freak hailstorm.

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-city-flooded-ice-rain-article-1.1721933 (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/african-city-flooded-ice-rain-article-1.1721933)

That is amazing.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: prometheus on March 19, 2014, 06:41:33 AM
The weather where I live (Colorado, USA) has really weirded since early 2012. That's still too short a time period to say anything about what the future may hold, but long term residents have frequently commented that the climate here has shifted noticeably in the past 20 years. The rains used to come, quite predictably, in late-summer afternoon bursts that lasted about 2 hours. Five to seven days a week. Now they don't come at all for long stretches and when they do they hang around for days. Here's a comment I made in a journal from 9 April, 2012:

"So the weather all March has been truly fantastic! Too much so. It's pretty worrisome actually. As much fun as it is to go outside in this weather it's not supposed to be this warm yet."

I noticed flowers blooming, tree leaf buds coming out, and insects arriving that weren't supposed to be around for another few weeks. Not long after that, my area had some of the worst wildfires in our state's history, and even president Obama came out to check it out. And I don't have to bring up on this forum what the arctic sea ice did that year.
The next year the fires were even worse, and Boulder, which is only about a 70 minute drive from here, had some pretty incredible floods. I've long been concerned about the long-term effects of climate change, but 2012 was when I really woke up and started paying attention.

(off-topic: I'm probably missing something really obvious, but "who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: icefest on March 19, 2014, 07:43:26 AM
(off-topic: I'm probably missing something really obvious, but "who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)

It's not Ymir.

I think the issue here in Australia is the mindset that a La Nina year is the 'normal' weather.
We've just had a couple of years with above average rainfalls and if this El Nino comes like `97 then expect much more news about fires from down here.
 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 19, 2014, 11:43:22 AM
"who is white and king of the ice"?  :-[)

I figured it was Kung Bore (AKA Jack Frost) http://bokstavligt.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/inte-overens-tydligen.html (http://bokstavligt.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/inte-overens-tydligen.html)

Getting back to British weird weather, the latest from moi, the Met Office and the NOAA:

http://econnexus.org/stormy-winter-weather-moves-south/ (http://econnexus.org/stormy-winter-weather-moves-south/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on April 14, 2014, 04:55:57 PM
Quote
Global warming forcing Mongolian nomads to change lifestyles

ULAN BATOR--Men on horseback chase sheep and goats over the snow-covered land in winter in the Mongolian plains, where temperatures can drop to minus 30 degrees.

The strong wind that blows over the plains takes its toll on man and animals. Taking an even bigger toll on the traditional way of life of the nomads is global warming.

For those living in northern latitudes with harsh winters, global warming might be considered a blessing if it leads to milder weather. However, the experience in recent years of nomads in Mongolia shows that even a rise of a few degrees can have devastating effects not only on the ecosystem, but on an entire society.
....

Ironically, it is not the warmer winters that have hurt nomad families, but climate change in the summer. Such change has led to a weakening of livestock that forms the primary means of livelihood for many nomads.

If sufficient grass does not grow in summer, livestock will be unable to accumulate enough nutrition to sustain them through the country's harsh winter. That has led in recent years to large-scale livestock deaths because the animals are unable to adapt to even minor temperature or snowfall changes during the winter.
....

NOMADS MOVE TO ULAN BATOR



Today, surrounding the more modern architecture of Ulan Bator is a web of yurts, the traditional collapsible Mongolian tent used by nomads.

The large amount of coal that is used for cooking and heating produces columns of black smoke. That is one reason the World Bank has described Mongolia's capital as one of the cities with the worst air pollution in the world, exceeding even the frightening levels found in China.

Of a total Mongolian population of about 2.9 million, about half live in Ulan Bator.
...

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/sci_tech/environment/AJ201404020002 (http://ajw.asahi.com/article/sci_tech/environment/AJ201404020002)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 22, 2014, 08:33:20 PM
The Washington, DC (US) Capital Weather Gang compares their 2013/2014 winter outlook forecast with what really happened. 
 :-[  "This winter was its own unique animal."   :-[
Yet another instance of "the usual meteorological rules no longer apply."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/grading-our-2013-14-winter-outlook/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/21/grading-our-2013-14-winter-outlook/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2014, 01:59:25 AM
A result of the cold jet stream trough / "polar vortex" that repeatedly hit the mid-west and eastern US this winter:

"Environment Canada’s Great Lakes ice dataset, which extends back to 1980-81, shows the current ice extent at a chart-topping 32.8 percent as of April 22.  The year with the next greatest ice extent on this date, 1996, had about half as much ice – or 16.49 percent coverage.  The average Great Lakes ice cover right now is 2.2 percent.  There is roughly 16 times more ice than normal right now!"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/23/great-lakes-covered-in-record-shattering-amount-of-ice-this-late-in-spring/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/23/great-lakes-covered-in-record-shattering-amount-of-ice-this-late-in-spring/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 24, 2014, 03:25:16 PM
We have had a front dropping huge amounts of rain across the midsection of the  U.S. for  the past 3 days. It refuses to move east. In Chicago, they have been predicting rain for the past two days but keep pushing it back. Normally these kinds of fronts would have moved into the Atlantic by now.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/weather-radar)

What does the jet stream look like?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: opensheart on April 24, 2014, 03:41:42 PM
Here is a site for looking at the jet stream over time.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html (http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 24, 2014, 07:19:24 PM
National weather service has now moved any chance of rain in Chicago out to Sunday.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/daily-weather-forecast/348308 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/chicago-il/60608/daily-weather-forecast/348308)

This is despite there being a front that is dumping large amounts of rain just west of Chicago. If this forecast holds, it would mean this front will have remained stationary for nearly 6 days.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2014, 07:22:28 PM
SH
New York meteorologist Eric Holthaus warns of blocking pattern in Northeast US next week.  With map:

@nymetrowx: Textbook Omega Block develops next week with our area between two cutoff lows. Unsettled weather likely. http://t.co/0KHnabjEhe (http://t.co/0KHnabjEhe)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on April 29, 2014, 10:33:51 AM
The Year Climate Change Closed Everest

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/the-year-climate-change-closed-everest/361114/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/04/the-year-climate-change-closed-everest/361114/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2014, 04:36:49 PM
Just outside Acapulco, storms and flooding have wiped out seaside tourist shops, and villages that have stood since the 16th century.  The Mexican government does acknowledge the need to address climate change.

http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-04-28/should-mexicans-acapulco-stay-and-fight-climate-change-or-give-and-leave (http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-04-28/should-mexicans-acapulco-stay-and-fight-climate-change-or-give-and-leave)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2014, 05:46:26 PM
Multi-day, severe tornado outbreakS (!) currently thrashing the southeastern US.


http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/alabama-mississippi-brace-2nd-hit-tornado-toll-reaches-28-n92111 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/alabama-mississippi-brace-2nd-hit-tornado-toll-reaches-28-n92111)

Two huge low pressure areas are cut off from the jet stream, and blocked by a high pressure area, preventing the severe weather from moving.
"Textbook Omega Block between two cutoff lows. Unsettled weather likely."
https://mobile.twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/459683171559157760/photo/1 (https://mobile.twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/459683171559157760/photo/1)

Two swirling low pressure centers, tornado-producing thunderstorms in between. #gifanimation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif)

”This is the most electrically prolific set of t'storms I have ever seen in my career. Nearly 70,000 strikes per hour last I checked. #severe”

Unbelievable! - 8 tornado warnings right now all in close proximity along with a few having debris balls! #alwx #mswx
https://mobile.twitter.com/1ChrisNelson/status/460955430877814784/photo/1 (https://mobile.twitter.com/1ChrisNelson/status/460955430877814784/photo/1)

Every major tornado today fell in the high risk area & PDS watch. Great job by the SPC. https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdam/status/460947554994106368/photo/1 (https://mobile.twitter.com/wxdam/status/460947554994106368/photo/1)

This article includes what ensemble models suggest could occur this week, based on what similar conditions in the past have generated (may take a moment for images to load):
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/27/major_tornado_outbreak_expected_in_next_few_days.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/04/27/major_tornado_outbreak_expected_in_next_few_days.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2014, 06:14:18 PM
You may be able to watch live coverage of the US tornado outbreak here:
(They pause the feed during commercial breaks.)

https://www.youtube.com/embed/e-XfPT8Ppcc (https://www.youtube.com/embed/e-XfPT8Ppcc)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2014, 06:31:39 PM
More tornado aftermath photos here.

http://www.weather.com/news/photos-tornado-outbreak-midwest-deep-south-20140427 (http://www.weather.com/news/photos-tornado-outbreak-midwest-deep-south-20140427)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 30, 2014, 01:22:13 PM
The storm system continues to pummel the south:

"More than 24 inches of rain fell in a 26-hour period in Pensacola, Fla. according to one rain gauge, washing away bridges and closing mile after mile of highways across the region, leaving hundreds of drivers stranded for hours.

"Six thousands lightning strikes were recorded in the area in just 15 minutes.

"In Alabama, much of downtown Mobile was flooded and a reverse 911 was sent to residents at Fish River, near Silverhill, where water levels were at their highest for 60 years.”

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/life-threatening-flooding-submerges-pensacola-florida-n93201 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/deadly-tornado-outbreak/life-threatening-flooding-submerges-pensacola-florida-n93201)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 30, 2014, 08:30:28 PM
This is from the Capital Weather Gang (Washington, DC) on the southern storm.  They are not ones to use hyperbole lightly.

"Freak “S” shaped storm unleashes biblical rain in Pensacola, Mobile"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/30/freak-s-shaped-storm-unleashes-biblical-rain-in-pensacola-mobile/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/30/freak-s-shaped-storm-unleashes-biblical-rain-in-pensacola-mobile/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on May 01, 2014, 05:52:09 AM
Meanwhile....on the west coast of the US.....some heat records fell in Oregon.

Newport, on the Oregon coast, was 86 degrees F which set a record for the month of April.  Astoria (also on the coast) was 83 which beat the old record of 75.

Here is the link to the article (http://link to the article).   It is also interesting to look at 3 cities that DIDN'T set new record highs for April 30th.  Portland, Hood River and Hillsboro's record high temperatures for April 30th were all set in 1998............yes.......THAT 1998......when the last large El Nino hit.

All the OLD record highs were set SINCE 1998....with the exception of Newport.   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 04, 2014, 03:57:12 PM
this is starting to be funny... starting from october 2013 I could have taken a nearly similar image from my window out to the street each month. Temperature 3 degrees celsius, overcast, rain with mixed snowflurries. We had a month of proper winter and now there's been a total of some 2½weeks of spring-like weather but today the eternal autumn is back again. About the only things separating this from october is way more light and some trees that have started to bud leaves, so I guess it's spring.  :P
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2014, 08:42:39 PM
The following reference discusses a growing trend, where African easterly waves (AEWs) may have an increasing impact on the Atlantic basin climate, with increasing global warming; which among other things will like increase hurricane damage in this area:

Christopher Bryan Skinnera and Noah S. Diffenbaugh (2014), "Projected changes in African easterly wave intensity and track in response to greenhouse forcing", Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1319597111

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/23/1319597111 (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/04/23/1319597111)

"Abstract
Synoptic-scale African easterly waves (AEWs) impact weather throughout the greater Atlantic basin. Over the African continent, AEWs are instrumental in initiating and organizing precipitation in the drought-vulnerable Sahel region. AEWs also serve as the precursors to the most intense Atlantic hurricanes, and contribute to the global transport of Saharan dust. Given the relevance of AEWs for the climate of the greater Atlantic basin, we investigate the response of AEWs to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Using an ensemble of general circulation models, we find a robust increase in the strength of the winds associated with AEWs along the Intertropical Front in West Africa by the late 21st century of the representative concentration pathway 8.5. AEW energy increases directly due to an increase in baroclinicity associated with an enhanced meridional temperature gradient between the Sahara and Guinea Coast. Further, the pattern of low-level warming supports AEW development by enhancing monsoon flow, resulting in greater convergence and uplift along the Intertropical Front. These changes in energetics result in robust increases in the occurrence of conditions that currently produce AEWs. Given relationships observed in the current climate, such changes in the location of AEW tracks and the magnitude of AEW winds carry implications for the relationship between AEWs and precipitation in the Sahel, the mobilization of Saharan dust, and the likelihood of cyclogenesis in the Atlantic. Our results therefore suggest that changes in AEW characteristics could play a critical role in shaping the response of Atlantic basin climate to future increases in greenhouse gas concentrations."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 06, 2014, 02:07:48 PM
Wasn't sure where to post this so I'll put it here. There is more evidence that fracking is causing earthquakes.

http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma (http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma)

While this may seem like weak evidence, all fracking was halted in the areas near the New Madrid fault several years ago and they have not restarted. The New Marid zone had four of the largest North American earthquakes in recorded history, with moment magnitudes estimated to be as large as 8.0, all occurring within a three-month period between December 1811 and February 1812.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 06:26:37 PM
The following linked reference may not exactly be weird weather, but it indicates that if we continue as we have been climate change could make ozone air pollution in the USA 70% worse than it currently is by 2050:


Pfister, G. G., S. Walters, J.-F. Lamarque, J. Fast, M. C. Barth, J. Wong, J. Done, G. Holland, and C. L. Bruyère (2014), Projections of future summertime ozone over the U.S., J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 119, doi:10.1002/2013JD020932

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020932/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013JD020932/abstract)

Abstract: "We use a regional coupled chemistry-transport model to assess changes in surface ozone over the summertime U.S. between present and a 2050 future time period at high spatial resolution under the A2 climate and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 anthropogenic precursor emission scenarios. Predicted changes in regional climate and globally enhanced ozone are estimated to increase surface ozone over most of the U.S.; the 95th percentile for daily 8 h maximum surface ozone increases from 79 ppb to 87 ppb. The analysis suggests that changes in meteorological drivers likely will add to increasing ozone, but the simulations do not allow separating meteorological feedbacks from that due to enhanced global ozone. Stringent emission controls can counteract these feedbacks; if implemented as in RCP8.5, the 95th percentile for surface ozone is reduced to 55 ppb. A comparison of regional to global model projections shows that the global model is biased high in surface ozone compared to the regional model and compared to observations. On average, both the global and the regional model predict similar future changes but reveal pronounced differences in urban and rural regimes that cannot be resolved at the coarse resolution of the considered global model. This study confirms the key role of emission control strategies in future air quality projections and demonstrates the need for considering degradation of air quality with future climate change in policy making. It also illustrates the need for high-resolution modeling when the objective is to address regional and local air quality or establish links to human health and society."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2014, 08:27:31 PM
Wasn't sure where to post this so I'll put it here. There is more evidence that fracking is causing earthquakes.

http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma (http://local.msn.com/rare-earthquake-warning-issued-for-oklahoma)

While this may seem like weak evidence, all fracking was halted in the areas near the New Madrid fault several years ago and they have not restarted. The New Marid zone had four of the largest North American earthquakes in recorded history, with moment magnitudes estimated to be as large as 8.0, all occurring within a three-month period between December 1811 and February 1812.
The evidence is mounting:
Quote
Geologists in Ohio have for the first time linked earthquakes in a geologic formation deep under the Appalachians to hydraulic fracturing, leading the state to issue new permit conditions... in certain areas that are among the nation's strictest.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/12/fracking-linked-toearthquakesohiouticashale.html (http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/4/12/fracking-linked-toearthquakesohiouticashale.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2014, 02:33:04 AM
It snowed three weeks ago in Wichita, Kansas.  Last Sunday, it hit 102°F.  The heat wave continued this week.
Quote
It’s not just the heat bringing misery to the state. If Wichita doesn’t see a little over a third of an inch of rain Thursday, it will break the record for driest start of the year set by the Dust Bowl year of 1936, becoming the driest year since records began in 1888.
Crop losses in the state are leading to disaster declarations.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/08/3435565/kansas-heat-wave/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/05/08/3435565/kansas-heat-wave/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 14, 2014, 02:45:27 AM
Map of temperature anomalies in Siberia again shows a region more than 8°C above normal for April!
http://t.co/qYzK5bzIEY (http://t.co/qYzK5bzIEY)

And April was globally the second warmest on record.
http://mashable.com/2014/05/13/nasa-2nd-warmest-april/ (http://mashable.com/2014/05/13/nasa-2nd-warmest-april/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on May 14, 2014, 12:37:22 PM
Anomalous heat moves into Moscow in about 5 days from now......so it looks like western Russia is going to get hit with the heat hammer as well.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Milret2 on May 14, 2014, 11:48:48 PM
Here is an interesting article I found on the internet about effects of ice and glacial melting. I wonder what effects might be triggered elsewhere besides changes in the poles.
http://www.rdmag.com/news/2014/05/ice-loss-moves-earth-250-miles-beneath-our-feet (http://www.rdmag.com/news/2014/05/ice-loss-moves-earth-250-miles-beneath-our-feet)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on May 18, 2014, 11:50:33 AM
Heavy flooding in parts of Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia two days ago. When bridges collide:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFLOUkSTwQg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFLOUkSTwQg)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on May 21, 2014, 09:51:19 PM
Oregon coast wildfire in January 2014 (usually you can't START A FIRE EVEN IF YOU WANTED TO).

Siberia wildfire season starting in early April 2014.

And Alaska wildfire season starting in May of 2014.  http://www.livescience.com/45784-smoke-alaskan-fire-from-space.html (http://www.livescience.com/45784-smoke-alaskan-fire-from-space.html)

NOT good signs for the coming wildfire season......nor for wildfire seasons the next 50 years.

I hope you folks (in the US) VOTED YESTERDAY.....because there are STILL IDIOTS IN CONGRESS THAT DENY THAT FOSSIL FUELS ARE CAUSING GLOBAL WARMING.....AND THEY NEED TO BE VOTED OUT OF OFFICE.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on May 21, 2014, 10:01:53 PM
Interesting view of precipitation in Europe...

The Climate Context for ‘Unprecedented’ Balkans Flooding
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-context-balkans-flooding-17468 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-context-balkans-flooding-17468)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on May 23, 2014, 10:22:13 AM
May be not related to AGW. There was a dust storm recently in New mexico US, the first video on this link is about a dustorm in 2013 but very interesting to see it coming.
http://www.weather.com/news/texas-dust-storm-haboob-photos-20140319 (http://www.weather.com/news/texas-dust-storm-haboob-photos-20140319)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Stephen on May 23, 2014, 12:09:03 PM
Maybe this is more boring than weird, but it's still significant.  Melbourne, Australia is currently experiencing a "mildwave".  We have had a record number of days above 20C for May.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-21/melbourne-mildwave-breaks-may-weather-record/5468356 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-21/melbourne-mildwave-breaks-may-weather-record/5468356)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on May 23, 2014, 08:50:48 PM
Strangely something pretty similar with the dust storm but with a fog...

Gargantuan Fog Cloud Swallowing Lake Michigan Shows Mother Nature Means Business
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/23/fog-bank-rolling-over-lake-michigan_n_5378943.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/23/fog-bank-rolling-over-lake-michigan_n_5378943.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on May 27, 2014, 04:15:05 AM
Moscow, Russia remains toasty.  Average HIGH TEMPS (Fahrenheit):

May 69
June 71
July 75

The last 9 days......high temps were between 75 - 84.  The next 10 days, high temp is forecast to be 74 - 84 each day.

Think about that for a minute.  For 19 days in a row.....the high temp IN MAY AND EARLY JUNE....will be at or above the average HIGH TEMP FOR JULY.

Fire season could get really nasty outside of Moscow and in other parts of Russia.   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 27, 2014, 02:25:58 PM
Strangely something pretty similar with the dust storm but with a fog...

Gargantuan Fog Cloud Swallowing Lake Michigan Shows Mother Nature Means Business
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/23/fog-bank-rolling-over-lake-michigan_n_5378943.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/23/fog-bank-rolling-over-lake-michigan_n_5378943.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Cool video but thick fog over Lake Michigan this time of year is very common. The current water temperatures over most of Lake Michigan are 36F or lower.

http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/twomichigans.html (http://www.coastwatch.msu.edu/twomichigans.html)

When we get warm humid air up from the Gulf which has been the pattern recently, this humid air turns into low clouds over the cold water with frequent thick fogs.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 31, 2014, 09:26:02 PM
We have had a stationary low sitting over East Texas and Louisiana for the past week. Wave after wave of heavy thunderstorms have been rolling in from the Gulf.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: RunningChristo on June 01, 2014, 12:18:51 AM
In the Greater Oslo (Norway) area the average temps the last 11 months have been 2,6 C Above normal, and the watertemps in the local lakes is already Close to 20 C, just tested and pretty lovely I admit! Just saying to those overseas been freezing butts off in the same period;-). But "normal"?! I blame it upon the Jet stream acting Fuzzy lately!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on June 02, 2014, 12:23:53 PM
Early June....a few hundred miles from Moscow, and wildfire season is already in full throttle.

http://www.latimes.com/la-0804-pin05-photo.html (http://www.latimes.com/la-0804-pin05-photo.html)

Wait till July and August roll around.  Bad news bears.......

Next 8 days in Moscow.....78 - 88 F.  Temps CONTINUE to above be WAY ABOVE END OF JULY average temperatures and we're at the first of June.  Not good.....
Title: Weird Weather modelled by Supercomputers!
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 02, 2014, 05:30:02 PM
According to the BBC "Climate change to boost summer flash floods, says study (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-27624478)"

Quote
Global warming will lead to a significant increase in extreme summer downpours in the UK, a study suggests.

The Met Office and Newcastle University researchers say there could be five times the number of "extreme rainfall events" exceeding 28mm per hour, under extreme warming projections.

This would cause "really severe" flash flooding in many parts of the UK, according to the scientists.

However, they caution that this result is based on only one computer model.

The study has been published in the journal, Nature Climate Change (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2258).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2014, 07:51:01 PM
With an abnormally warm fall, Australia has (another) warmest 24 months on record, now as of May.  The video lists record and near-record heat for 2014 so far for several cities, and rainfall significantly below average.  They expect El Niño will bring more of the same.

http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/climate-council-report-says-past-24nbspmonths-have-delivered-nations-hottest-average-temperature-ever/story-fnii5v70-1226939106752 (http://m.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/climate-council-report-says-past-24nbspmonths-have-delivered-nations-hottest-average-temperature-ever/story-fnii5v70-1226939106752)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2014, 08:54:01 PM
Record-smashing late May heat wave in northeast Asia.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=278 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=278)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 02, 2014, 11:29:36 PM
A huge sand's storm over Iran.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27671359 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-27671359)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/02/tehran-sandstorm-iran-_n_5432917.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/02/tehran-sandstorm-iran-_n_5432917.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 12, 2014, 06:50:13 PM
Indians Suffer Through Longest Heatwave On Record (PHOTOS)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/12/india-heatwave-photos_n_5488093.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/12/india-heatwave-photos_n_5488093.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on June 12, 2014, 08:16:13 PM
Brazil hit by floods in the dry season, following drought in the rainy season.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-brazil-flood-idUSKBN0EM1T020140611 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/11/us-brazil-flood-idUSKBN0EM1T020140611)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 13, 2014, 11:48:26 PM
Florida More Vulnerable To Tornadoes Than Midwest
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/13/florida-vulnerable-tornadoes_n_5492632.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/13/florida-vulnerable-tornadoes_n_5492632.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 17, 2014, 09:15:31 AM
2 tornadoes side by side (video) (merging ?)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/16/nebraska-tornadoes_n_5501579.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/16/nebraska-tornadoes_n_5501579.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on June 17, 2014, 10:08:00 AM
sleet in southern finland, has a (denierish) acquaintance reported to me with four text messages. says it's great. please you in UK, push the blocking high away ;-), that directs winds straight here from northern Greenland. my opinion? The cold produced by the melt in Arctic has to go somewhere.
As this happens right before Midsummer festivities this'll have bad influence for some years to come, irrespective of what happens later in summer or the next winter. Next winter and summer he'll probably inform me about the non-existant effect of El Nino to Finland. He's probably a lost case.

As an aside, what to make of this? http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/06/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-35.77,58.37,921 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/06/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=-35.77,58.37,921)

I haven't followed SST anomalies for a while, so this kind of dichotomy between temperate and subarctic atlantic might be a normal occurrence this time of year. Awful lot of small gyres separating the (possibly weakened?) NA drift waters from the high anomaly NA subpolar gyre waters.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 17, 2014, 04:26:04 PM
2 tornadoes side by side (video) (merging ?)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/16/nebraska-tornadoes_n_5501579.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/16/nebraska-tornadoes_n_5501579.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Spectacular video but it is not uncommon for pairs and even three tornadoes to track together and they will sometimes merge to form a single large tornado. You can also sometimes have a large wedge tornado that spawns smaller tornadoes that dance around it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 17, 2014, 04:46:32 PM
Rare twin tornados in Nebraska, USA on June 16, 2014: http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/17/us/nebraska-severe-weather/ (http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/17/us/nebraska-severe-weather/)
Reports say they were 1 or 4 miles apart. 

Wikipedia has an article on a pair in 1965: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1965_Palm_Sunday_tornado_outbreak (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1965_Palm_Sunday_tornado_outbreak) and one on "multiple-vortex tornados" (which might not be the same thing):  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple-vortex_tornado (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple-vortex_tornado)

Due to climate change? Probably not.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: FLwolverine on June 17, 2014, 08:03:37 PM

Spectacular video but it is not uncommon for pairs and even three tornadoes to track together and they will sometimes merge to form a single large tornado. You can also sometimes have a large wedge tornado that spawns smaller tornadoes that dance around it.
True, but apparently the twin tornadoes yesterday were something different:

Jeff Masters at Wunderground  - 
http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2702&tstamp=&page=1 (http://classic.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2702&tstamp=&page=1)

While it is common for large, violent tornadoes to form multiple funnels that rotate around each other, Monday night's Pilger, Nebraska twin tornadoes were not one of these standard "multi-vortex" entities. The Pilger tornadoes were separated by 2 - 3 miles, and were both spawned by the same isolated supercell thunderstorm. A rotating supercell thunderstorm typically has just one center of rotation and spawns only one tornado, but Monday's storm was so massive that it was able to form two centers of rotation that each spawned large and destructive tornadoes. Video taken by iowachase.com shows a large tornado hurling debris into the air near the 3:31 mark, and by 3:32 a second tornado touches down 2 - 3 miles away. Within minutes, the 2nd tornado grows very large and puts a substantial amount of debris into the air.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 18, 2014, 02:51:13 PM
These tornadoes are clearly examples of climate disruption as the front that is spawning this severe weather has essentially stalled over the plains. Persistent highs, cutoff lows and stalled fronts are occurring more and more frequently across the planet. This accounts for the persistent rain across England and snow across the east coast of the U.S..

Far more frightening is this stalled front that is causing tornadoes to fire up in the plains night after night.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/tornado-hovers-hour-nebraska-again-hit-twisters-n134231 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/tornado-hovers-hour-nebraska-again-hit-twisters-n134231)

I like to call it "sticky weather" and I have been seeing it across the U.S. more and more frequently.  It usually is identifiable when weather forecasting simply falls apart as fronts don't move like forecast. When it causes persistent rain or heat, it is a problem. When it results in supercells and the tornadoes they spawn to simply sit stationary for hours, it is terrifying and also unprecedented. Supercells are notorious for racing across the plains and some of them will result in tornadoes that track on the ground for hundreds of miles.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 19, 2014, 02:37:20 AM
Temperatures topping out at 98°F (37°C) today led to sudden closure of schools in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
http://www.phillymag.com/news/2014/06/18/schools-closing-due-heat/ (http://www.phillymag.com/news/2014/06/18/schools-closing-due-heat/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on June 20, 2014, 03:19:23 AM
Mother Knows Best

Red squirrel females are endowing their offspring with genetic changes that may help the species combat global warming

"The big news from the Yukon that recently made a splash in science circles, however, was a 10-year study showing that female red squirrels are giving birth 18 days earlier than their great-grandmothers did. That change averages an astonishing six days per generation. The reason: warmer spring temperatures in the area—a rise of about 4 degrees F over the past three decades—along with a dramatic increase in pinecone abundance linked to a drier climate."

http://www.nwf.org/news-and-magazines/national-wildlife/animals/archives/2005/mother-knows-best.aspx (http://www.nwf.org/news-and-magazines/national-wildlife/animals/archives/2005/mother-knows-best.aspx)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 23, 2014, 02:23:57 PM
In the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region. we are finishing up our 2nd week of unseasonably cool, wet weeks. Flooding is beginning to show up in rivers as the saturated ground is unable to absorb the continuous rainfall. Forecast for  the remainder of this week is slightly cooler than normal although we are supposed to get some relief from the rain later in the week. My tomato and pepper plants are suffering.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on June 24, 2014, 08:21:29 AM
In the News, from downunder in NZ:
Unusually mild start to winter affects businesses:
"Halkett said that like some other Australasian retailers, Kathmandu (an outdoor company with clothing) had had a sales downturn in the past five weeks in both countries.

"The sales shortfall has been particularly significant in the past fortnight, the first two weeks of Kathmandu's winter sale promotion," he said.

"In this period across all the major metropolitan cities in both countries, with the exception of Perth, we have been selling in a period of warmer, drier and generally sunnier weather than last year."

This had particularly been the case in New Zealand, and the winter weather pattern to date had not been conducive to sales of core items such as down jackets, fleece and thermals, he said.

The Warehouse (a store like Walmart in USA) also blamed warm weather when it downgraded its profit forecast last week."

We have had a few more frosts than usual with the clear nights but followed by warm days in the high 'teens still. The garlic & shallots I planted last month are shooting up & I still have snow peas. & the sun is heading back our way now!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 24, 2014, 12:53:21 PM
East UK Riding coastal erosion – in pictures
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/jun/24/east-riding-coastal-erosion-in-pictures (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/jun/24/east-riding-coastal-erosion-in-pictures)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on June 24, 2014, 11:52:00 PM
Checking back, no post is yet dedicated to what I suppose are quite excessive rains in South China.
Look for the BBC reporting:
http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/27981579 (http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/27981579)

A 'Meiyu'-rainfront I read is typical for the spring-early summer over there. But this looks like too much.
Robertscribbler is at this, too and lays out a relation with anomalous SST's in the Northern Pacific.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 25, 2014, 12:50:47 AM
Pictures of tornadoes in southern Norway posted by an acquaintance on another blog. He said there were 4 spawned in the same thunderstorm.


This was comment he typed....

Up in norskiland, we are having tornadoes, big ones, four at once -- people going "never seen one of those before."
Well, now you have four.

There's no such thing as climate change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: RunningChristo on June 25, 2014, 01:00:23 AM
More about the same story.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152095293780448&set=a.408538150447.190897.22652235447&type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152095293780448&set=a.408538150447.190897.22652235447&type=1&theater)

Note that this is highly uncommon to take Place in Norway, normally it's not enough energy or heat to create the stuff you have "over there"!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on June 25, 2014, 12:19:46 PM
Vast Stretches of Minnesota Are Flooded as Swollen Rivers Overflow
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/us/much-of-minnesota-is-flooded-as-swollen-rivers-overflow.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/us/much-of-minnesota-is-flooded-as-swollen-rivers-overflow.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 25, 2014, 04:58:21 PM
More about the same story.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152095293780448&set=a.408538150447.190897.22652235447&type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152095293780448&set=a.408538150447.190897.22652235447&type=1&theater)

Note that this is highly uncommon to take Place in Norway, normally it's not enough energy or heat to create the stuff you have "over there"!

Living in tornado alley, I am happy to export a few of these to Europe.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on June 25, 2014, 04:59:57 PM
I live in Southern Minnesota.  The precipitation has been truly extreme.  One of the most noticeable signatures of climate change in our area is the increase in heavy precipitation events, and the wild pendulum swings between flood and drought.  We have the wettest year-to-date on record, and I believe we're either at or pushing the wettest June (or any month!!) on record with a week in the month left to go.  I know Sioux Falls, SD has had their wettest month ever already this June.

Luckily our soils around here have a lot of gravel underneath and are fairly well-drained.  This is good for flood years.  As long as the precipitation is spread out enough, only the most low-lying and poorly drained areas are flooded for more than a few hours.  However, as all of this drains very rapidly into the upper groundwater then into our creeks and then rivers, the water level of the rivers can be pushed up quickly.  Lots of local towns have been sandbagging along the river banks.  This is the third time in four years that the Cannon River has had such major flooding, which had been considered a 1-in-100-year event up until this time.

I don't know about Sioux Falls, but near Aberdeen in Northeastern South Dakota, the soil has an impermeable layer of clay a few feet beneath the surface, so any rain above and beyond what can be absorbed by those first few feet of soil just sits on the surface.  The terrain is incredibly flat and takes a long time to drain.  If they had the precipitation we've had, they would be under feet of water.  However they are much dryer than us here in Minnesota.  There is a strong East/wet to West/dry gradient.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 25, 2014, 05:04:35 PM
Vast Stretches of Minnesota Are Flooded as Swollen Rivers Overflow
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/us/much-of-minnesota-is-flooded-as-swollen-rivers-overflow.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/25/us/much-of-minnesota-is-flooded-as-swollen-rivers-overflow.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

What is really frightening about the situation across the upper Midwest is there seems to be no end in sight. The forecast for Chicago through the end of July is unseasonably cool, wet weather. This does not mean it will rain everyday but it does mean that heavy downpours will continue to plague the upper Midwest. This pattern has been in place since May.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2014, 01:05:01 PM
Repurposing of infrastructure?  An abandoned shopping mall in Thailand flooded, and has been overrun by fish.

http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/30/5856856/abandoned-mall-in-bangkok-has-been-overtaken-by-fish (http://www.theverge.com/2014/6/30/5856856/abandoned-mall-in-bangkok-has-been-overtaken-by-fish)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on July 01, 2014, 02:41:32 PM
It looks like the upper Midwest is one of the areas that will continue to be hit with "high precipitation events" going forward.  Because of the change in the jet stream.....and a stubborn high pressure area off the west coast of the US.....storms are traveling up and over the high pressure area, and then coming down through western Canada and into the upper Midwest.

Climate projections looking forward forecast the northeast US and upper Midwest to have SIGNIFICANTLY more high precipitation events....
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on July 01, 2014, 04:29:57 PM
Yes, this pattern has been obnoxiously persistent.  CPC two week outlook continues the pattern of gloom.  I feel bad for Iowa.  They have been getting it even worse than us in Minnesota this year.  It feels like I haven't seen the sun in weeks.  The scant few sunny days we have seen have not been enough to ripen my berries.  The raspberries are about 10 days behind schedule.  I prefer drought to flood.  I can always irrigate, and it's usually sunny during drought weather.  I haven't watered anything once this year, even transplants.  The earth is so wet you can wring water out of it.  I had a 4 foot copper pipe pounded into the ground to use as a ground on my electrical fence system.  I was rearranging the fence and had to pull up the ground to move it, when I discovered the water table was about 2 feet beneath the surface.  The tube came up out of the ground with the sand inside saturated with water and dripping.  I could have used the tube as a straw had I left it in the ground.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on July 01, 2014, 04:55:53 PM
 
Quote
I prefer drought to flood.  I can always irrigate, and it's usually sunny during drought weather.

The folks out west might disagree with you.....seeing as they are on the opposite end of the spectrum from you folks in the upper Midwest....:)  The same weather patterns that are bringing you storm after storm.....are blocking storms from hitting them. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 01, 2014, 09:17:48 PM
My brother's farm has no irrigation water (again) this summer

http://www.mrgcd.com/ (http://www.mrgcd.com/)
Quote
Welcome to the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District 
 
WATER BANK CURTAILED AS OF NOON, JUNE 16, 2014
 
Due to diminishing natural flow in the Rio Grande, as of Noon, June 16, 2014, Water Bank users in the District are curtailed until further notice. 
 
The two triggers causing the curtailment are a water level in El Vado Reservoir below 91,000 acre feet and a natural flow in the Rio Grande below 1030 cubic feet per second occurred on June 16, 2014 and curtailment was instituted per Water Bank Rule No. 23.
 
Curtailment is in effect until further notice.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 02, 2014, 03:46:37 PM
Chicago has had 3 separate torrential rain events in the last 36 hours. The rain comes down like a monsoon, huge sheets of water. Driving through the west suburbs yesterday and saw vast shallow lakes of water standing everywhere as the ground is no longer able to absorb the water due to 1 1/2 months of heavy precipitation. We also had very heavy snows last winter, 2 feet of snow that persisted on the ground for 3 months until the Spring melt.

I disagree about the drought/rain thing. I always prefer excess precip to drought.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Lynn Shwadchuck on July 02, 2014, 04:15:22 PM
News this morning says that you can't drive across Canada this week, there aren't even any detours around what's happened to the roads in Manitoba.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on July 02, 2014, 07:22:03 PM
Nasty: Another Chicago River Re-Reversal Highlights Need for Climate Action
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/henry-henderson/nasty-another-chicago-riv_b_5550118.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/henry-henderson/nasty-another-chicago-riv_b_5550118.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on July 02, 2014, 07:49:32 PM
Lynn
In May of 2011 I drove west & the water was within 6 inches of the roadbed near Portage la Prairie.
This is evidently worse & that is difficult to imagine. From the Ontario Manitoba border to the Rocky Mountains there was alway water visible from the highway. That man of the people Stephen Harper joked that Lake Anasazi was determined to make a comeback while I made reference to the New Canadian Lake District.
Driving back in late June the water had not receded much.
Recognising that this inundation is worse than what I experienced leads me to question the suitability of the prairies for farming, other than perhaps aquaculture.
Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2014, 01:57:07 PM
More on the Canada flooding:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/prairie-flooding-prompts-evacuations-in-western-manitoba-1.2692933 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/prairie-flooding-prompts-evacuations-in-western-manitoba-1.2692933)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Yuha on July 08, 2014, 04:32:46 AM
As Manitoba is flooding, the Northwest Territories is burning:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/n-w-t-experiencing-one-of-its-worst-fire-seasons-ever-1.2695066 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/n-w-t-experiencing-one-of-its-worst-fire-seasons-ever-1.2695066)

And the situation is not getting any better: 19 new fires started by lightning in one day:
http://up.nwtfire.com/sites/default/files/2014-07-07_currentfiresituation.html
 (http://up.nwtfire.com/sites/default/files/2014-07-07_currentfiresituation.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on July 15, 2014, 12:43:45 AM
Freak hailstorm hits Siberian beach.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28299459 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28299459)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on July 20, 2014, 12:25:41 AM
As all of you know, the drought situation in California is reaching the critical stage.  Some of you may not know that the wildfire season in Oregon and California is ramping up BIG TIME over the last few weeks.

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2014/07/northwest_wildfires_situation.html#incart_m-rpt-1 (http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2014/07/northwest_wildfires_situation.html#incart_m-rpt-1)

In January.....the Oregon coast had a wildfire.  It is usually IMPOSSIBLE to start a campfire on the Oregon coast in January.....because EVERYTHING IS WATER LOGGED.

Well....the dry weather situation in Oregon and Washington is coming home to roost.  And it's only the middle of July.  There are two more months of prime fire season.  NOT GOOD....

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sonia on July 26, 2014, 04:47:08 AM
Yesterday the smoke over Michigan caught my eye on the satellite images.  Today when I went outside the sky was gray over Boston.  Oh no, I thought, I know what that is.  A look at current satellite confirms it, smoke from the Canadian fires has pushed over New England now.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JayW on July 26, 2014, 01:18:18 PM
Yesterday the smoke over Michigan caught my eye on the satellite images.  Today when I went outside the sky was gray over Boston.  Oh no, I thought, I know what that is.  A look at current satellite confirms it, smoke from the Canadian fires has pushed over New England now.

I'm in Maine, it's was noticeably hazy, still is, and it was able to stimulate the olfactory receptors.

From my local national weather service office
Quote
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SMOKE FROM FOREST FIRES 2500 MILES AWAY
CONTINUES TO LEAVE MUCH OF THE AREA IN A HZ THIS MORNING. IN FACT
IF YOU GET OUTSIDE BEFORE SUNRISE BEGINS TO MIX THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...YOU MAY BE ABLE TO SMELL THE SMOKE IN THE AIR. UNTIL THAT
TIME WILL KEEP HZ IN THE GRIDS.
http://www.weather.gov/gyx/ (http://www.weather.gov/gyx/)
Title: More Siberian weather weirdness
Post by: silkman on August 01, 2014, 09:11:03 AM
More weird weather in Siberia. The Siberian Times reports floods, unseasonal snow, heat and hailstones the size of eggs.

And fires, lots of fires......

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/features/weather-goes-crazy-in-siberia-with-record-high-temperatures-then-july-snow/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/features/weather-goes-crazy-in-siberia-with-record-high-temperatures-then-july-snow/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 01, 2014, 05:18:11 PM
The books are closed on July and Chicago has had an amazingly mild month. We had one day with a high of 90F. 15 days of July had highs in the 70's while 15 had highs in the 80's.

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORD/2014/7/31/MonthlyHistory.html (http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KORD/2014/7/31/MonthlyHistory.html)

I have lived in Chicago my entire life, am an avid gardener and mild summers have increasingly become the norm over the last decade.

Since we continue to have near record heat across the planet, somebody must be getting their ass kicked.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: RunningChristo on August 02, 2014, 12:13:23 AM
Oslo, Norway have been "blessed" With the warmest July since 1955, 20,8 C (16,4 C = normal), and the current 12 month running average is now at +2,6 C ABOVE normal!  I Call that "a hint" of Global Warming...



Longyearbyen, Svalbard, did not experience such an exceptional July, just 1,3 C above normal, but despite this "Cold" July, the current 12 month average there stand at + 4,55 Above normal.
I say that is bad News for both ice/glaciers, permafrost and animallife!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on August 05, 2014, 10:44:26 PM
I guess I won't go to New Zealand to ski this year.....:)

https://www.yahoo.com/travel/missing-from-new-zealands-ski-slopes-this-season-93892032237.html (https://www.yahoo.com/travel/missing-from-new-zealands-ski-slopes-this-season-93892032237.html)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on August 06, 2014, 03:04:11 PM
Reindeer invade Arctic road tunnel in Norway to escape the heat. And the authorities are leaving them there and requiring drivers to take a detour.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-norway-reindeer-idUKKBN0G51CF20140805 (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/05/us-norway-reindeer-idUKKBN0G51CF20140805)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on August 06, 2014, 09:15:24 PM
Quote
Hawaii, Which Almost Never Has Hurricanes, Is Getting Ready For 2
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/08/06/338265427/hawaii-which-almost-never-has-hurricanes-is-getting-ready-for-2 (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/08/06/338265427/hawaii-which-almost-never-has-hurricanes-is-getting-ready-for-2)

Iselle and Julio both expected to weaken to tropical storm by landfall. I was there two weeks ago. Missed it!  :o
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2014, 04:21:18 PM
Record flooding in past few days in Detroit; Baltimore; Long Island (NY):
"All of these floods had two things in common: an unusually high level of water vapor in the atmosphere, and an unusually amplified jet stream. Precipitable water (a measure of water vapor) in Detroit on Monday and near Long Island last night was in the 99th percentile historically. The jet stream was in an unusually contorted configuration, with a strong trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S., and sharp ridge of high pressure over the West. This allowed colder air than usual to move in aloft, increasing the instability of the atmosphere, causing stronger thunderstorm updrafts and heavier rains."

We no longer need hurricanes to get hurricane amounts of rain in the Midwest and Northeast US.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2759&cm_ven=tw-jm (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2759&cm_ven=tw-jm)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 13, 2014, 05:27:00 PM
They had to send out divers to investigate cars stuck under water on some highways in Detroit to see if people were stuck in them! This is getting surreal.

http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/08/12/state-activates-emergency-operations-center-after-storm-dumps-over-5-inches-of-rain/ (http://detroit.cbslocal.com/2014/08/12/state-activates-emergency-operations-center-after-storm-dumps-over-5-inches-of-rain/)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 13, 2014, 05:39:58 PM
That may not be the good thread but it goes well with the previous info.
Global warming is moistening the atmosphere
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/aug/13/global-warming-moistening-the-atmosphere (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/aug/13/global-warming-moistening-the-atmosphere)

Also this one to complete :
Extreme Rains Swamp Baltimore and Long Island
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2759&cm_ven=tw-jm (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2759&cm_ven=tw-jm)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 15, 2014, 10:05:44 AM
Two US states 'swap weather systems'
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28792019 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-28792019)

Quote

Unusual weather in the Western US has caused an apparent "swap" in weather conditions between two states.

In Phoenix, Arizona, which is famously dry at this time of year, heavy rain caused a canal to flood leaving more than a dozen people marooned on flooded streets.

Meanwhile in Washington State, an enormous dust storm rolled over parched land, creating an eerie scene and causing numerous traffic accidents.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on August 15, 2014, 03:59:49 PM
Phoenix is not famously dry at this time of year.  The Monsoon season doesn't wrap up for another few weeks and flash floods like this are routine in July and August.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 16, 2014, 11:18:16 PM
Iselle's Aftermath: The Result Of Hawaii's Rare And Powerful Storm
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/13/iselle-aftermath-hawaii_n_5677134.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/08/13/iselle-aftermath-hawaii_n_5677134.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on August 21, 2014, 01:17:03 PM
36 Dead, 7 Missing in Hiroshima Landslide
http://abcnews.go.com/international/wirestory/reports-dead-13-missing-hiroshima-landslide-25045755 (http://abcnews.go.com/international/wirestory/reports-dead-13-missing-hiroshima-landslide-25045755)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2014, 04:22:08 PM
India's monsoon rains only a fraction of normal this year.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Peak-monsoon-nearly-over-hope-fades-for-rain-deficient-regions/articleshow/40649464.cms (http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Peak-monsoon-nearly-over-hope-fades-for-rain-deficient-regions/articleshow/40649464.cms)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2014, 04:35:23 PM
Phoenix is not famously dry at this time of year.  The Monsoon season doesn't wrap up for another few weeks and flash floods like this are routine in July and August.
This is of course correct.  However, what's noteworthy is the record amount of rain that has fallen.

http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/us/2014/08/22/dnt-gray-week-of-flooding.cnn&sr=twVideo08232014flooding10pvodlink&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F1wjtiYGw51 (http://www.cnn.com/video/standard.html?/video/us/2014/08/22/dnt-gray-week-of-flooding.cnn&sr=twVideo08232014flooding10pvodlink&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Ft.co%2F1wjtiYGw51)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2014, 05:13:06 PM
Arizona safety procedure: surviving a Dust Storm in your car.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/swirls-of-dust-and-drama-punctuating-life-in-the-southwest.html?ref=us&_r=1 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/30/us/swirls-of-dust-and-drama-punctuating-life-in-the-southwest.html?ref=us&_r=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Rick Aster on September 03, 2014, 01:13:25 AM
From CBC: Polar vortex chills linked to melting sea ice; Cold outbreaks happened a few months after unusually low sea ice levels http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-vortex-chills-linked-to-melting-sea-ice-1.2753522 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-vortex-chills-linked-to-melting-sea-ice-1.2753522)

It’s a summary of a statistical study that finds a strong connection between low sea ice in the Barents and Kara seas and continental cold spells a few months later.

Quote
When there's less ice, more energy gets into the atmosphere and weakens the jet stream, the high-altitude river of air that usually keeps Arctic air from wandering south, said Jin-Ho Yoon of the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland, Washington. So the cold air escapes instead.

That happened relatively infrequently in the 1990s, but since 2000 it has happened nearly every year, according to a study published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2014, 10:16:30 PM
Monsoon flow + Hurricane Norbert remnants = wettest day ever in Phoenix, AZ, USA.  Record flooding in the southwest.

http://mashable.com/2014/09/08/phoenix-rain-wettest-day-on-record/ (http://mashable.com/2014/09/08/phoenix-rain-wettest-day-on-record/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2014, 10:20:55 PM
Kashmir region: Earlier monsoon rains were scant, but late season, unusually heavy downpours caused record flooding.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/08/3564240/photos-historic-kashmir-flooding/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/09/08/3564240/photos-historic-kashmir-flooding/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2014, 03:58:49 AM
Calgary gets more snow in one storm than is normal for months of September & October combined.  Also catches the American storm-naming disease.  ;-)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/09/10/heavy-early-season-snow-in-calgary-causes-power-outages-dangerous-roads/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/09/10/heavy-early-season-snow-in-calgary-causes-power-outages-dangerous-roads/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on September 12, 2014, 02:54:48 AM
I am in Tucson where we also got hammered with flooding with that storm, but not nearly to the extent of Phoenix.  Tropical Storm Odile looks set to follow a very similar path, so a repeat performance is not out of the question.

Who decided to name the Canadian storms?  The Weather Channel again?  I guess the Europeans have been naming winter storms since the 50s but that makes it no less silly for TWC to decide to do it now.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2014, 03:08:46 AM
...
Who decided to name the Canadian storms?  The Weather Channel again?  I guess the Europeans have been naming winter storms since the 50s but that makes it no less silly for TWC to decide to do it now.

Apparently the Canadians themselves are calling the storm "Snowtember."  TWC has its reasons for naming US storms (social media and historical reference), but they don't have the province to extend themselves north of the border.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 12, 2014, 05:12:19 PM
I am in Tucson where we also got hammered with flooding with that storm, but not nearly to the extent of Phoenix.  Tropical Storm Odile looks set to follow a very similar path, so a repeat performance is not out of the question.

Who decided to name the Canadian storms?  The Weather Channel again?  I guess the Europeans have been naming winter storms since the 50s but that makes it no less silly for TWC to decide to do it now.

I can understand getting hammered can be rough but doesn't this rain have long term benefits that far outweigh the short term pain?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Bruce Steele on September 12, 2014, 05:29:41 PM
If the tropical convergence zone were to shift north would Southern California get hammered with an occasional summer monsoon event? Maybe even a hurricane should water temperature increase sufficiently?  We don't do a lot of hurricane preparations around here but I wonder sometimes if future conditions may make an occasional hurricane more likely. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on September 12, 2014, 05:50:27 PM
I am in Tucson where we also got hammered with flooding with that storm, but not nearly to the extent of Phoenix.  Tropical Storm Odile looks set to follow a very similar path, so a repeat performance is not out of the question.

Who decided to name the Canadian storms?  The Weather Channel again?  I guess the Europeans have been naming winter storms since the 50s but that makes it no less silly for TWC to decide to do it now.

I can understand getting hammered can be rough but doesn't this rain have long term benefits that far outweigh the short term pain?

Depends on where it falls. When it's torrential rain, most just runs off flash flood like. If there is no reservoir to catch it, well.... Torrential rain doesn't do much for groundwater recharge. It's too much too quickly to infiltrate the soil. This is especially true during drought when the soil is hard.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on September 13, 2014, 05:41:33 PM
I can understand getting hammered can be rough but doesn't this rain have long term benefits that far outweigh the short term pain?

Depends on where it falls. When it's torrential rain, most just runs off flash flood like. If there is no reservoir to catch it, well.... Torrential rain doesn't do much for groundwater recharge. It's too much too quickly to infiltrate the soil. This is especially true during drought when the soil is hard.

Yes, the benefit is substantial!  I only used the word hammered because there was lots of property damage that came along with it.  I'm a college student on a limited budget and I live in a motorhome with a leaky roof.  I have to put blocks under and park it intentionally sideways so the water runs off, and even still some gets inside every time it rains.  Tucson is not a particularly wealthy city and I know I'm not the only one who doesn't have the money to prepare their home for an event that might not happen every year.  The flooding that came along with this storm was intense.  There are no basements here because it's so expensive to dig rock but people still had their ground levels flooded.  Erosion moved all kinds of sand into city streets that has to be cleaned up.

On the other side of the coin, it's been an active monsoon season up to this point and the plants are growing like crazy.  I have never seen the desert this green.  I can almost watch the trees grow.  Trees!  These things that have looked basically the same for a year because it didn't rain much last winter have grown feet over the summer.  Trees near power lines everywhere need trimmed bad.  Everything is flowering and it smells amazing.  Allergy sufferers are heavily medicated or suffering, or both.  There are mushrooms popping up.  I didn't even know mushrooms grew in the desert.  I'm not originally from here.  Think of how insanely hardy that mycelium must be to withstand getting completely dried out and baked in the sun.  The soil surface temps are even higher than air temps.  It waits years, maybe decades at times for just the right moment.  The desert blows my mind.

The soil surface is hard as ritter describes even now in these moistest of times.  It can only absorb moisture at a certain rate, due to lack of organic material and things like grass to slow the runoff and absorb the water.  Thus, long, slow rains are the best for plants and surface recharge.  That's what the winter rain is often like.  However, during the summer thunderstorms when it rains an inch an hour, the majority of rainwater runs off no matter what the soil moisture is like.  But a lot of recharge happens through the bottoms of washes and rivers.  It's gravel that goes down to the water table in a lot of places.  Tucson runs its surplus CAP water down otherwise dry washes and rivers specifically for that purpose.  So, just because it might not absorb on the soil surface very much, doesn't mean it isn't recharging the water table.

If the tropical convergence zone were to shift north would Southern California get hammered with an occasional summer monsoon event? Maybe even a hurricane should water temperature increase sufficiently?  We don't do a lot of hurricane preparations around here but I wonder sometimes if future conditions may make an occasional hurricane more likely. 

I'm not sure about the magnitude or location but it seems like the duration of the monsoon might already be affected.  It does make me wonder if the tropical precipitation moving north might manage to salvage the LA to Phoenix to El Paso ish area of the desert southwest from drying out to uninhabitability.  South of us here in Mexico there are climates where it's 70-80 hot and dry all winter long and their only precipitation is the summer monsoon.  Maybe that climate band will just move north.  But that is total speculation and I'd love to hear if anyone has any info on research in that area.

I've been taking a few biology classes lately and it gives me some interesting ideas about the plants here.  I'm not sure any of them really care when it rains.  They can wait a loooooong time and will take whatever they can get whenever it arrives.  There is the typical time of year that most of the prickly pears or saguaros or palo verdes or what have you flower, but then there are always a few individuals that flower at wierd times.  Palo verdes usually go off in April but I see maybe one in a hundred flowering now.  Those are the few individuals ready to propogate their superior flowering time genes in case the precipitation patterns ever really do change their timing dramatically.  I think because of these features and the hardiness of the plants in other areas, the ecosphere here is probably better suited than many to adapt to whatever climate change may throw at it.  This place can already go a decade without significant precipitation and burst back to life when the opportunity arises.  But that is also speculation and maybe a little bit off topic.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2014, 08:17:26 PM
Per meteorologist Eric Holthaus, flash flooding events like this do little to help the drought. 

"When it rains this much this quickly in the desert, most of the water makes its way into dry creek beds and river systems, failing to recharge the dwindling water table. According to the National Weather Service, it would take three more days like today to end the drought in the Phoenix area. In California’s Central Valley, where the drought is even worse, hardly any rain fell today."

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/08/hurricane_norbert_remnants_flood_phoenix_with_record_breaking_rainfall.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/09/08/hurricane_norbert_remnants_flood_phoenix_with_record_breaking_rainfall.html)

This chart from July shows how much rain must be received in one month to relieve various drought areas.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on September 16, 2014, 09:34:45 PM
London and their incredible exploding sidewalks.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2014/sep/16/london-exploding-pavements-video (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/video/2014/sep/16/london-exploding-pavements-video)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on September 16, 2014, 10:34:58 PM
I thought this a surprising & apparently unexpected ramification from an unusually warm winter at the bottom of NZ's South Island. This province has recently greatly expanded its dairy farming sector.
The mild winter is being blamed for the death of up to 300 dairy cows that ate swede leaves containing high levels of toxic glucosinolates.

http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=193647&fm=newsmain%2Cnrhl (http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=193647&fm=newsmain%2Cnrhl)

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/sheep/10506863/Swede-poisoning-fears-spread-to-sheep (http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/farming/sheep/10506863/Swede-poisoning-fears-spread-to-sheep)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: viddaloo on September 16, 2014, 11:47:06 PM
Clare, that reminds me, something I've been thinking about for the last couple of days. Here in Hardanger, Norway, there's no blueberries at lower altitudes, following a record warm Winter with no snow since well before Easter. Grasping for explanations, I first blamed the mice, more numerous than ever because of the early Spring. Their gestation period is less than 4 weeks, so they multiply many, many times during a hot Spring and Summer like 2014. Either they ate all the berries, or the lack of snow was directly causing the lack of berries. I dunno. Higher up, there are lots of berries, even now in September. I met hikers who climbed the hills and mountains last week just to find blueberries.

I expect to find lots of minor and major collapses like these, whatever their causes, in the years to come, and I also expect a multitude of causes to accomplish even more dire collapses. At the moment, birds of prey are prosperous, though, and a wanderer must be careful not to rest for too long, as eagle wings are pretty soon audible nearby.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on September 17, 2014, 01:27:50 AM
Another tropical depression is forming with models tracking it straight up the Baja coast yet again.  It seems a little crazy but then again, given two in a row already, maybe whatever large-scale setup is in place directing these things is sticking around for a bit.  Meanwhile waters in the Gulf of California are 90 degrees, feeding more energy and moisture into Odile as she prepares to make havoc in the desert.

"According to the National Weather Service, it would take three more days like today to end the drought in the Phoenix area. In California’s Central Valley, where the drought is even worse, hardly any rain fell today."

This was written about Norbert, and Odile is now on the way.  If we get yet another tropical storm up this way as the models are hinting at, it's not impossible we could wipe out the drought here in SE AZ.  Fingers crossed!  Maybe if that fails, an El Nino winter will make up the difference.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2014, 01:57:01 PM
Studies showing attribution of extreme weather events to climate change (or not) start to pile up.

Quote
The savage heat waves that struck Australia last year were almost certainly a direct consequence of greenhouse gases released by human activity, researchers said Monday. It is perhaps the most definitive statement climate scientists have made tying a specific weather event to global warming.
...
The new reports come as scientists, responding to popular demand, are trying to speed up their analysis of extreme weather events and the role of greenhouse gases.

It used to take them years to come to a clear view of any particular event; now, papers are being published within several months. By sometime next year, researchers hope to reduce that to a matter of days, with three groups of researchers around the world training their sights on extreme events as soon as they occur, then putting out reports while the public is still discussing the aftermath.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/science/earth/human-related-climate-change-led-to-extreme-heat-scientists-say.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140929&nlid=38021197&tntemail0=y&_r=1 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/30/science/earth/human-related-climate-change-led-to-extreme-heat-scientists-say.html?emc=edit_tnt_20140929&nlid=38021197&tntemail0=y&_r=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2014, 03:31:34 AM
Record rainfall in France broken again two weeks later.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=308&cm_ven=tw-cb (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=308&cm_ven=tw-cb)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Rick Aster on October 01, 2014, 11:22:01 PM
A story that’s getting plenty of mainstream media attention today because of the high-quality photos is the mass gathering of walruses on a beach in Alaska. The coverage uniformly mentions climate change as the cause. At Newsweek:

http://www.newsweek.com/35000-walruses-gather-alaska-beach-because-they-cant-find-sea-ice-274530 (http://www.newsweek.com/35000-walruses-gather-alaska-beach-because-they-cant-find-sea-ice-274530) Photos: 35,000 Walruses Gather on Alaska Beach Because They Can't Find Sea Ice
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2014, 02:53:23 AM
Meanwhile, in the UK, September was the driest month on record and among the top warmest.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29419202 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-29419202)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Anne on October 02, 2014, 04:35:01 PM
Meanwhile, parts of southern France have been suffering devastating and record-breaking floods. Montpellier is one of them. Though it's not the first time for them, it sounds far worse.

I'm away from home (in W France) on an excruciatingly slow internet connection so can't find decent reports but there will be many pictures if you can use Google. (I can't at the moment!) As I understand it, it's partly due to the Med being much warmer than usual. Some places have had 3 months' worth of rain in 3 hours.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2014, 03:53:51 PM
And yet another record flooding in France occurred Monday night.
Ten feet of water in the soccer stadium.  Cars dangling from trees.

http://www.weather.com/news/montpellier-stadium-flood-france-football-20141007 (http://www.weather.com/news/montpellier-stadium-flood-france-football-20141007)

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=308 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=308)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on October 08, 2014, 11:47:47 PM
And yet another record flooding in France occurred Monday night.
Ten feet of water in the soccer stadium.  Cars dangling from trees.

Quote
According to Yahoo! Sport, the extraordinary rainfall unleashed flash floods that swamped the Stade de la Mosson, home of the city's top-division soccer club, Montpellier HSC.

I'm guessing this joke has been made already, in fact, I'm certain it has, but shouldn't they rename the stadium to Stade de la Mousson?

Sorry, couldn't help myself...  :-X
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on October 09, 2014, 08:31:50 PM
I was thinking Stade de la Monsoon, but I guess it's better to keep it all in French--makes for a closer pun, too.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: icefest on October 13, 2014, 10:16:09 AM
Just reposting from your post sigmetnow, this video was incredible.
Scary - I'm happy we only have snakes, crocs and bushfires here in Australia,

http://www.youtube.com/v/8vQMuwRjI6s
EDIT: Embedding youtube is so hard to get your head around in this forum. :D
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 14, 2014, 07:48:35 PM
Normally mild-weathered San Diego, on the southern California coast, suffered from the heat this summer.  Residents who had lived comfortably without air conditioning were suddenly needing it most days -- and those without it are installing it -- straining the grid.

http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141014/california-heat-delivers-costly-blow-coastal-san-diego (http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20141014/california-heat-delivers-costly-blow-coastal-san-diego)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 16, 2014, 03:21:10 AM
I think shit is really getting serious.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/14/monster-storm-explodes-in-north-atlantic-images-and-animation/?tid=collaborative_1.0_strip_1 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/14/monster-storm-explodes-in-north-atlantic-images-and-animation/?tid=collaborative_1.0_strip_1)

I also think what we don't know can hurt us.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2014, 08:06:36 PM
Tragedy in Nepal as "astounding" amounts of snow from Cyclone Hudhud envelope trekkers on popular mountain routes.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/16/world/asia/nepal-snowstorm/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/16/world/asia/nepal-snowstorm/index.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on October 17, 2014, 04:08:10 PM
Interesting  video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qRfHIL93zw&list=UUswH8ovgUp5Bdg-0_JTYFNw&index=7 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qRfHIL93zw&list=UUswH8ovgUp5Bdg-0_JTYFNw&index=7)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jdallen on October 17, 2014, 11:34:29 PM
Waterspout in Puget sound:

http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/10/first-tornado-warning-in-17-years/ (http://blogs.seattletimes.com/today/2014/10/first-tornado-warning-in-17-years/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 26, 2014, 11:50:19 PM
Quote
“The origin of frequent Eurasian severe winters is global warming,” said Prof Masato Mori, at the University of Tokyo, who led the new research. Climate change is heating the Arctic much faster than lower latitudes and the discovery that the chances of severe winters has already doubled shows that the impacts of global warming are not only a future threat. Melting Arctic ice has also been implicated in recent wet summers in the UK.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/26/global-warming-has-doubled-risk-harsh-winters-eurasia-research-finds. (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/26/global-warming-has-doubled-risk-harsh-winters-eurasia-research-finds.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2014, 06:25:01 PM
As Australia's summer approaches, October heat waves set records for max temps, earliest start, and longest duration.

Quote
The heatwave set October daily maximum temperature records at more than 20 stations but the duration of the warmth was also exceptional, a bureau spokesman said.

"These are all occurring generally about a week early and the extent is longer than observed before," the spokesman said.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/first-big-heat-event-melts-australian-temperature-records-20141027-11cczf.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/first-big-heat-event-melts-australian-temperature-records-20141027-11cczf.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: opensheart on October 30, 2014, 09:48:08 PM
copied from a comment on Dr Jeff Masters blog.

200 year flood hits west Norway towns

Rescue crews and volunteers worked through the night to evacuate hundreds of people and limit damage as Voss, Odda and several other towns suffered the worst floods to hit western Norway in more than a century.

Areas hit included the town of Lærdal, which was partly destroyed by fire less than a year ago.

http://www.newsinenglish.no/2014/10/29/homes-bridges-swept-away-as-western-towns-are-flooded/ (http://www.newsinenglish.no/2014/10/29/homes-bridges-swept-away-as-western-towns-are-flooded/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 31, 2014, 02:48:18 AM
Weather Nerd humor regarding the major atmospheric dip associated with the southeast US storm coming this weekend courtesy of a polar outbreak. ("Smokies" = Great Smoky Mountains.)

@ScottNogueira: -5.5SD 500MB trough equals extremely low dynamic tropopause height. Smokies be sniffing ozone. http://t.co/dztfjOvbDr (http://t.co/dztfjOvbDr)

Article:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/30/halloween-weekend-vortex-means-mid-atlantic-mountain-snow-wicked-wind-winter-cold/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/30/halloween-weekend-vortex-means-mid-atlantic-mountain-snow-wicked-wind-winter-cold/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 01, 2014, 12:17:31 PM
Well here in the UK we just smashed our Oct 31st max temp record by over 4c!!!! Thats not shabby at all and an absolute boon for all the trick or treaters!!!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 01, 2014, 07:23:37 PM
Incredible early-season snow slams the Southeast US, impacts felt across eastern U.S.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/01/incredible-early-season-snow-slams-the-southeast-impacts-felt-across-eastern-u-s/)

@capitalweather: Earliest snow on record in Columbia, SC. Tons of snow in the mtns. (Pic via @EdPiotrowski)  http://t.co/L51Gylqp9g (http://t.co/L51Gylqp9g) http://t.co/tCx94jnYUy (http://t.co/tCx94jnYUy)

@RyanMaue: -6.7 deviations from 30-yr mean puts 500 mb height anomaly as left tail outlier.  How does one get sub-540 dam Z? http://t.co/qfqKRAaYx3 (http://t.co/qfqKRAaYx3)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 01, 2014, 08:00:55 PM
@RyanMaue: Temperatures in Europe at record highs. http://t.co/C7IStdvBGo (http://t.co/C7IStdvBGo)
In warm sector of sprawling Icelandic low (GFS 2.0) http://t.co/FiENhbaEel (http://t.co/FiENhbaEel)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2014, 01:25:33 PM
Another strongest Pacific storm!  Not expected to hit land... until perhaps U.S./Canada....

http://mashable.com/2014/11/02/super-typhoon-nuri-strongest-storm-2014 (http://mashable.com/2014/11/02/super-typhoon-nuri-strongest-storm-2014)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2014, 03:52:13 AM
U.S. West Coast waters are warmest in decades – what does it mean for winter?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/in-the-red-west-coast-waters-are-warmest-in-decades-what-does-it-mean/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/in-the-red-west-coast-waters-are-warmest-in-decades-what-does-it-mean/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2014, 03:56:52 AM
How Typhoon Nuri is changing the weather forecast in North America

Quote
Typhoon Nuri, which was one of the two strongest storms on Earth so far this year, is going to help bring another shot of cold, Arctic air to the Midwest and East Coast later this week. That a typhoon near Japan could have a ripple effect on the weather in Detroit and New York just a few days later may be difficult to fathom, but it illustrates the myriad ways in which the world is an interconnected place.
http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/ (http://mashable.com/2014/11/04/how-super-typhoon-nuri-increases-the-risk-of-extreme-weather-in-north-america/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2014, 04:08:13 AM
Quote
Combined with some other atmospheric patterns that favor cold weather in the eastern U.S., Nuri’s extremely low pressure is poised to kick-start a domino effect on weather in the Northern Hemisphere over the next few weeks. In particular, it will spur a parade of cold air outbreaks across the central and eastern U.S. in November.

The storm’s deep low pressure will build a strong ridge in the eastern Pacific and over western North America. This, in turn, will force cold, Arctic air to surge south in the central and eastern U.S. over the next few weeks.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/typhoon-nuri-forecast-to-kick-start-a-parade-of-cold-outbreaks-in-eastern-u-s/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/04/typhoon-nuri-forecast-to-kick-start-a-parade-of-cold-outbreaks-in-eastern-u-s/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 07, 2014, 03:46:56 PM
From another part of the forum:

Flooding is happening now in Rome, right after similar events in Northern Italy and SE France:

Red alert Rome braced for ‘water bombs’
Quote
With the civil protection department expecting torrential rain to lead to “water bombs”, the authorities decided to close schools and monuments in Rome Thursday. Thursday. Rome Prefect Giuseppe Pecoraro earlier said that the weather forecasts were “unprecedented” and suggested Romans avoid leaving their homes. …

http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/115572/Red-alert-Rome-braced-for--water-bombs-.html (http://www.gazzettadelsud.it/news/english/115572/Red-alert-Rome-braced-for--water-bombs-.html)


Violent storms lash the French Riviera


http://www.thelocal.fr/galleries/news/in-images-violent-storms-lash-french-riviera (http://www.thelocal.fr/galleries/news/in-images-violent-storms-lash-french-riviera)

    Tuscany residents saved as floods hit Italy

    http://www.thelocal.it/20141105/tuscany-residents-saved-as-floods-hit-italy (http://www.thelocal.it/20141105/tuscany-residents-saved-as-floods-hit-italy)
       

        France deluged with massive rainfall


        Nice got 160mm in 24 hours.

        http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/29921484 (http://www.bbc.com/weather/features/29921484)

(Thanks, as often, to COBob for pointing these out over at robertscribbler's blog.)

I know that Montpellier has been hit twice very heavily, in the past month or two. Does anyone know if Montpellier is hit again by floods? And if so, what are the odds of getting hit by extreme weather three times in a row? Are we talking like three 1-in-50-year-floods (for instance) in a row here?

I mean, twice, okay, but three times?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 07, 2014, 06:57:53 PM
I don't know about Montpellier as such but it is part of the Herault departement and again many towns have been hit. All the south east of France nearly.
Some videos, if you want to see :
http://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/videos-inondations-catastrophe-naturelle-pour-371-communes-supplementaires-07-11-2014-4273501.php (http://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/videos-inondations-catastrophe-naturelle-pour-371-communes-supplementaires-07-11-2014-4273501.php)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 07, 2014, 07:52:55 PM
Quote
As It Turns Extra-Tropical, Typhoon Nuri Could Challenge All-Time Record

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/11/06/362008782/as-it-turns-extra-tropical-typhoon-nuri-could-challenge-all-time-record (http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/11/06/362008782/as-it-turns-extra-tropical-typhoon-nuri-could-challenge-all-time-record)

Hold on to your hats, Alaskans. Potential record storm is knocking at your doors. Predicting 45-foot waves near the western Aleutian Islands.  :o
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: deep octopus on November 07, 2014, 08:09:11 PM
I'm checking out the Null School wind and SLP maps. Winds are up to 105 km/hr (65 mph) in the northeastern quadrant, central pressure down to 948 hPa when I last checked: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-181.44,54.21,3000 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-181.44,54.21,3000)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2014, 01:21:11 AM
Storm in the Mediterranean is being called a "Medicane" -- not unheard of previously, but very rare.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2854&cm_ven=tw-jm (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2854&cm_ven=tw-jm)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 08, 2014, 02:05:48 PM
Winds are up to 105 km/hr (65 mph) in the northeastern quadrant, central pressure down to 948 hPa when I last checked

NOAA now have the central pressure down to 924:  http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 12, 2014, 01:43:06 AM
Like a knife: Cutting edge views of the wicked Arctic front advancing east across the U.S.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/11/like-a-knife-cutting-edge-views-of-the-wicked-arctic-front-advancing-east/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/11/like-a-knife-cutting-edge-views-of-the-wicked-arctic-front-advancing-east/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 12, 2014, 02:20:12 AM
 @EricHolthaus: Amazing paragraph right here for weather nerds, via @NWSWPC:
"Effects of the deep Bering Sea cyclone have totally displaced the low-level thermal profiles in this region of the Western Hemisphere"

http://t.co/mz8OIXd3aQ (http://t.co/mz8OIXd3aQ)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2014, 01:33:58 AM
@AmandaWills: Waterfalls in Milan's metro station as Italy faces extreme flooding
 http://t.co/YfI2Y5QIKx (http://t.co/YfI2Y5QIKx) http://t.co/QKfgLsGnU0 (http://t.co/QKfgLsGnU0)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2014, 01:56:13 AM
Warm Arctic, Cold Continent?  Massive dip in the polar jet stream over North America flips heat to north, cold to south.

http://mashable.com/2014/11/13/coldest-temperatures-united-states/ (http://mashable.com/2014/11/13/coldest-temperatures-united-states/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 14, 2014, 07:55:10 PM
Significant flooding and infrastructure damage in the UK.

Quote
LONDON — Britain and Northern Ireland have had a week of biblical weather as severe storms moved in from the west.

A man disappeared after being swept out to sea, railway lines were closed and a section of the M25 collapsed during several days of fierce weather. The Environment Agency has issued 20 flood alerts as winds of almost 100mph were recorded on the southern coast of England.
http://mashable.com/2014/11/14/uk-floods/ (http://mashable.com/2014/11/14/uk-floods/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2014, 11:14:54 PM
Buffalo, New York just received up to six feet! of snow in places, due to arctic outbreak winds blowing over the unfrozen Great Lakes. It has all the hallmarks of global warming.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/19/lake_effect_snow_in_buffalo_climate_change_is_making_snowstorms_more_extreme.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2014/11/19/lake_effect_snow_in_buffalo_climate_change_is_making_snowstorms_more_extreme.html)

James A Fry (@JamesAFry) tweeted at 11:33pm - 18 Nov 14:
Landing in #buffalo at 11pm #snowmageddon14 #LakeEffect #beyondthewall pic.twitter.com/oSBLhyPECF
(https://twitter.com/JamesAFry/status/534927493837651969?s=17 (https://twitter.com/JamesAFry/status/534927493837651969?s=17))
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 21, 2014, 05:06:51 PM
Roofs are collapsing under all the lake effect snow near Buffalo, NY.  More snow, then warming and rain, are in the forecast.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/21/us/winter-weather/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/21/us/winter-weather/index.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: GeoffBeacon on November 21, 2014, 06:53:16 PM
Sigmetnow

Quote
Buffalo, New York just received up to six feet! of snow in places, due to arctic outbreak winds blowing over the unfrozen Great Lakes. It has all the hallmarks of global warming.
Yes - but the BBC won't report the global warming connection. This morning, they had meteorologist Kevin O'Neill from Buffalo comment in their flagship radio programme Today.  As I remember ... cold air across warm lakes  ... some areas had heavy snow but others nearby didn't ..... No mention of global warming. I tweeted O'Neill to ask why.

Same yesterday on BBC Radio 5. Snow in East ... Californian drought in West but hoping for an El Nino. No mention of global warming. I added this one to my list of complaints to the BBC.
http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/bbc-the-back-business-campaign/ (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/bbc-the-back-business-campaign/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 21, 2014, 07:39:26 PM
What's behind snowmageddon that hit the US this week?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26600-whats-behind-snowmageddon-that-hit-the-us-this-week.html?cmpid=RSS (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn26600-whats-behind-snowmageddon-that-hit-the-us-this-week.html?cmpid=RSS)|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.VG-FTFHWTlc
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: oren on November 21, 2014, 08:10:57 PM
I've read many articles on this subject that take the opportunity of "the coldest November morning in the US since 1976" to debunk global warming and some even warn of global cooling which will disrupt food supplies and cause hardship. Amazing.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 22, 2014, 12:23:57 PM
A poster on another site linked to a US talk show host saying something like " the coldest morning since 76' debunks global warming and the fact I ate earlier means an end to world hunger......."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 22, 2014, 01:10:48 PM
That would of course be Stephen Colbert: https://www.facebook.com/IFeakingLoveScience/photos/a.456449604376056.98921.367116489976035/975688872452124/?type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/IFeakingLoveScience/photos/a.456449604376056.98921.367116489976035/975688872452124/?type=1&theater)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on November 25, 2014, 12:18:56 AM
That would of course be Stephen Colbert: https://www.facebook.com/IFeakingLoveScience/photos/a.456449604376056.98921.367116489976035/975688872452124/?type=1&theater (https://www.facebook.com/IFeakingLoveScience/photos/a.456449604376056.98921.367116489976035/975688872452124/?type=1&theater)

I'm really going to miss his show.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 25, 2014, 10:24:46 AM
Polar Plunge
http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/ib2b3k/polar-plunge (http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/ib2b3k/polar-plunge)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 28, 2014, 01:49:41 AM
So the south of France is being hit by storms and floods again? Is that the fourth time this autumn? Anyone from the AGW blogosphere covering this?

Quote
More violent storms set for south of France (http://www.thelocal.fr/20141127/floods-southern-france-var-riviera)

Published: 27 Nov 2014

The south of France is set to be lashed by more extreme weather with some 12 departments placed on alert for floods on Thursday after violent storms and heavy rain were forecast.

France’s meteorological service Météo France issued warnings for storms, rainfall, and floods for a dozen regions in the south of France that will remain in place until Saturday morning.

The departments Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne and Ariège are on alert for strong winds while Aveyron, Ardèche, Gard, Hérault, Lozère, Tarn and the two Corsican departments face the risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall. The Var department is also on alert for potential floods.

Météo France expects that up to 240 mm of rain will fall in the Languedoc region, and up to 150 mm over the Cévennes in the Ardèche department, in just 24 hours.

Météo France also urges caution in areas where the grounds are already completely saturated with water due to the recent heavy rainfall.

Winds may reach up to 110 km/h in the Pyrénées-Atlantiques, Hautes-Pyrénées, Haute-Garonne and Ariège departments. 

The warnings are just the latest to be handed out for southern France, which has been frequently battered by extreme weather throughout the autumn.

Earlier this month, heavy storms and rainfalls wreaked havoc in parts of the region.

The Ardèche department was hit especially hard after river banks burst and flooded the area and some 6,000 homes were left without power. Firefighters were called out to deal with almost 100 incidents.

“We have an enormous amount of damage, with walls collapsing onto roads,” said deputy mayor of an Ardèche village Michel Aymard at the time.

“We’ve only just received the financial aid from the government for damage caused by flooding in 2013,” he said.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on November 28, 2014, 10:31:37 AM
Deadly future heatwaves could kill thousands in Britain, warn scientists
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html)

Well, I am afraid France will be hit also... ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on November 28, 2014, 10:42:25 AM
Brisbane evidently had a v bad damaging hailstorm last evening, but this slow motion video clip makes it look almost 'elegant' if it is not unfair to use such a description under the circumstances?!
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/brisbane-storm-watch-the-hailstorm-in-slow-motion/story-e6frg6n6-1227138693359 (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/brisbane-storm-watch-the-hailstorm-in-slow-motion/story-e6frg6n6-1227138693359)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Michael Hauber on November 28, 2014, 11:14:13 AM
As a local, storms that bad happen every year or two somewhere within a hundred or so kilometres of Brisbane.  This one was unusual in that it hit the very center of the city, so affected a lot more people than normal.  Of course a very important component of its intensity was the amount of warm moist air available which is obviously increasing as the world warms.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on November 28, 2014, 11:23:10 AM
Deadly future heatwaves could kill thousands in Britain, warn scientists
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/science-news/11256139/Deadly-future-heatwaves-could-kill-thousands-in-Britain-warn-scientists.html)

Well, I am afraid France will be hit also... ;)

We actually get many more deaths in winter, up to 400 per day in January compared to July, so any extra heat deaths would be easily offset by the reduced deaths due to cold.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_337459.pdf (http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_337459.pdf)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 28, 2014, 02:50:43 PM
Pik, maybe. But that assumes that those extra winter deaths are all due one way or another to the cold. It also assumes that you won't have very extreme events of various sorts in winter, even though you almost certainly will.

Also, more on the violent Brisbane supercell hailstorm here:


The worst hail storm to hit Brisbane in a generation has been declared a catastrophe by insurers and prompted the Queensland government to call in the military to help clean up the damage
.

http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/28/brisbane-stunned-by-severe-storm-no-time-to-evacuate-no-warning (http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2014/nov/28/brisbane-stunned-by-severe-storm-no-time-to-evacuate-no-warning)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: LRC1962 on November 28, 2014, 08:20:20 PM
As with all things weather related, not one can really be called proof of AGW. It is the accumulative of events that give rise to proof. As in a piece I came across a while ago stated. "When the NY governor callls the US President for the forth time during his (the governor's) time of office about the once in a century event, you have to wonder."
The other issue that is always raised is death tools and costs. Just remember populations and infrastructures have been all raising rapidly in the last few decades in all these storm areas.Not that most can just get up and leave them, but that is the reality.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on November 30, 2014, 01:33:31 PM
What I do see occurring across the weather sites I frequent is the constant denial of any linkage to AGW when an extreme weather event occurs? Most sites separate out 'weather' from 'climate change' yet the Deniers cannot resist posting denials even when the event is rightly placed in the 'weather sections'. Why are they so keen to break house rules to get in their POV?

Surely they themselves note how frequently they now feel called upon to make such denials? For those posting on the longer lived weather sites they must also note a new trend in the frequency of such events? Maybe this is why they rush to post their 'move along! nothing to see here' type posts?

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 12:40:40 AM
Weather 'bomb' brings high waves, strong winds and power cuts to northern UK
Amazing photos.
http://mashable.com/2014/12/10/weather-bomb-uk/ (http://mashable.com/2014/12/10/weather-bomb-uk/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 16, 2014, 04:33:10 PM
Anchorage's persistent warm weather so far this winter may be record setting
http://www.adn.com/article/20141215/anchorages-persistent-warm-weather-so-far-winter-may-be-record-setting (http://www.adn.com/article/20141215/anchorages-persistent-warm-weather-so-far-winter-may-be-record-setting)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 22, 2014, 09:02:00 PM
Scotland: flash flooding in Kilmarnock causes damage to homes - video
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2014/dec/22/flash-flooding-kilmarnock-damage-homes-video (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2014/dec/22/flash-flooding-kilmarnock-damage-homes-video)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 23, 2014, 02:34:03 AM
Quote
Slovenia's Mount Javornik, a popular skiing spot, was subjected to nine days of strong winds, snow and ice starting on December 1. After the storm passed, photographer Marko Korošec went to the summit to photograph the results. What he found was a wonderland of trees, vegetation and structures coated in a hard layer of ice.
http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/21/world/gallery/slovenia-ice-storm/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2014/12/21/world/gallery/slovenia-ice-storm/index.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 23, 2014, 10:37:55 PM
Climate change in Nicaragua pushes farmers into uncertain world
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/dec/10/climate-change-nicaragua-farming-drought-flood (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/dec/10/climate-change-nicaragua-farming-drought-flood)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on December 24, 2014, 06:49:36 PM
After Jai Mitchell focused my attention on the “Annual Average Thread”, I followed the link and could log in using ‘witsend’s’ keys.

http://witsendnj.blogspot.nl/2014/12/all-about-us.html (http://witsendnj.blogspot.nl/2014/12/all-about-us.html)

Thanks Jai.

Dr. James White makes a clear case on the risks taken by humanity. I somewhat knew the sudden, paleo-climatic events called ‘Dansgaard-Oeschger’. But it was new for me that the ice-cores taken on the GIS can be evaluated now to show what White presented.
That doesn’t completely knock me off, for somehow I suspect the strong temperature shifts presented have a regional signature. They are not necessarily representative for the whole world. Nevertheless, the pic below, taken from the lecture, illustrates how dramatic, though regional events could wind up creating havoc on very short timeframes.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FWhiteSLandGHGcurve_zps206490c1.jpg&hash=2599929fb12ca6fe87642ceb8afd3895)

It is not that  the content in the lecture is new; in a study published in June ’89 (Dansgaard/White et al) a warming in South Greenland of about 7dC in 50 years was mentioned.
With the newest facilities and more ice-cores from better locations, the score has been precised  to mean warming rates of 10dC in 3-5 years (Younger Dryas termination).
Dr. White took all opportunities to explain that this sort of information should be considered in realistic risk assessment. In my own words, there’s a large chance of coinciding, relatively small feedbacks that could trigger this sort of abrupt change. Especially in the present situation.

I have spent hours doing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis correlations on Skin Surface Temps and so on. The idea was to look for clues whether the characteristics of the last two Arctic seasons could tell me anything in context to abrupt change in the form of a Heinrich-/D-O Event? I had the GIS-melt 2012 in mind, though a 500+ Gt loss is small compared to the massive meltwaterpulses that have ended the Weichselien. The loss is even small compared to the yearly freshening in the Arctic Ocean through melt and rivers.

You won’t be surprised that I got no clues. There’s no linear relation to the increased SIE during the summers ’13 and ’14, however, a freshening could have contributed. There’s no clear connection to a decrease in the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation), though the last two summers the Barentsz and Kara Seas seem to have reversed in their supposed new Atlantic mode. Comparing winter and summer data from NCEP/NCAR, at least I got a confirmation that more sea ice over there is mainly related to specific weather circulation during summer.

The weird part (that’s why I chose this thread for the post) in the whole configuration has several sides, in my perception at least. One is the fledgling Nino event. Two is worldwide high mean SST’s, over a 1-2 year period, culminating in rising PDO-values. Three is the complementary/contrary behaviour in SST, wind circulation and sea ice extent around Antarctica. 
All these elements tend to suggest that Arctic ice extent- and volume retention ( I wouldn’t call it ‘growth’) is a peculiar, temporally side-effect within a continuing trend.
And while the GHG-forcing passes 400 ppm CO2, I see Dr. White’s lecture as a strong warning that that trend could facilitate a bad surprise. That’s why I regularly suggest a ‘black swan’ event that could lead to an icefree Arctic Ocean sooner than expected.
When? It’s in my eyes impossible to predict. Not by using statistical approaches nor modelling. The correlations and teleconnections are too complex. To get focused attention, worldwide, a sectoral approach based on SIE for instance doesn’t work. There’s too much short term noise.

I hope lectures like the one presented by Dr. White could spread insight in the intricate connections that drive the climate system. The insight should be that the system is now at a stage where relatively small perturbations can have abrupt consequences.

For tonight, though, I wish all of the blogfriends a merry Christmas and some solace in love and friendship.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on December 24, 2014, 07:13:14 PM
Werther,

I understand that you are operating from an "outside-in" perspective on the 2013/2014 melt season analysis.  I posted this on another thread and due to strict observational quality of the data, I suggest that this also be included in your analysis.  We already know that reduced early-season melt pond formation is the primary predictor for higher late season sea ice volumes.


This is the weather pattern that causes the cooler arctic temperatures in the beginning of the melt seasons of 2013 and 2014.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs3.postimg.org%2Fd3ce76mfn%2Fmay10.jpg&hash=ee0e712c83534a026de2b35a2d96191a)

The pattern is caused by a "ridiculously resilient ridge" of high pressure that formed in the North East Pacific during this time.

It caused increase clouds and decreased temperatures which suppressed melt pond formation in the early season which has been indicated as the primary predictor of end of season sea ice minimum extent and volume.

both 2013 and 2014 exhibited similar patterns, a sharp drop in temperatures below the average on days 128 and around 155 of the year.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs9.postimg.org%2F639s8m4fz%2F2013temp.jpg&hash=51b422667be4d3668dba05a7c07b69b8)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs14.postimg.org%2Fa9uobibg1%2F2014temp.jpg&hash=15f8a8bbcf1075a15b74310802b5506f)

The blocking high pressure pattern observed in the North East pacific is much more likely under the scenarios observed under the GeoMIP (Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project)  http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP/ (http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP/)
but is likely caused by south-east Asian aerosols or natural variability.


It should be noted that the increase in mid-latitude moisture is consistent with the breakdown of the Ferrel cell/Arctic cell barrier and that the winter temperature anomalies of 2013/2014 indicate that this process is continuing through the winter season.  (intrusions of mid-latitude moisture cause cooling in the summer and anomalous warming spikes in winter)

The difficulty I see you having is that the initial conditions are much too different than today.  In addition, the younger dryas may have been caused by a combination of factors, including bolide impact.  In that scenario, the ice sheets contributed to long-term freshening and cooling and suppressed the milankovitch cycle warming until a tipping point was reached and a sudden resurgence of the AMOC initiated, leading to rapid regional warming (10C north Greenland in 3-5 years).

I do not see a similar analogy in the current baseline conditions, they are simply too different.

however, I have posted in other threads that the increase in regional enthalpy gains under a summer (june 1st) ice free condition would necessarily produce an immediate (one year) 8-20C temperature anomaly, and this quite rapidly if arctic sea ice were to truly collapse in late may.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2014, 07:53:29 PM
Tallahassee, Florida, inundated with record rain due to stalled front.
Quote
By 8 p.m., nearly 7 and a half inches of rain had fallen at Tallahassee Regional Airport, breaking an all-time record for rainfall in a single day in December in Tallahassee, said Kelly Godsey, meteorologist with the National Weather Service.
...
The Weather Service issued a flash-flood emergency for Tallahassee on Tuesday night for the first time ever, Godsey said. Heavy rain also was reported in Liberty and Gadsden counties, with early rainfall amounts ranging from 5 to 7 inches.

Godsey said the deluge was the product of a frontal boundary that stalled just north of the state line.

"And because that boundary was stalled, the storms just continued developing in the same location," he said.
http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/2014/12/23/record-breaking-storm-sacks-tallahassee/20844739/ (http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/2014/12/23/record-breaking-storm-sacks-tallahassee/20844739/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on December 25, 2014, 10:21:26 AM
Thanks, Jai,

In the search for suppressed melt pond formation early in the season.
I did april-may; the skin surface temp anomaly does give some clues, but not in the Chukchi/Beaufort sector:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FEarlymeltseason2007and2012to2014_zps1a84b787.jpg&hash=606c3a73c34f9d5b8d5d6525fc32b8cf)

I'll try June, as it's the month melt ponds usually appear near the North Pole webcams.

What does appear in '13 and '14 is an effect from your ridge, that's for sure.
For the rest, the charts do indicate the start of a low or strong melt season. What is interesting is that the North Atlantic was on the cold side in '14. That does seem to have worked through last season.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on December 25, 2014, 10:59:35 AM
Well, at least I have a clue that skin surface temp anomaly doesn't tell much about the high summer ice cover:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FHighsummer2007and2012to2014_zps9d2d3ea6.jpg&hash=bab02e8001f897115eded765242faa02)

I guess it reflects the same as DMI's plus 80dN mean temps; it always hovers around the freezing point while melting. Maybe 2 m temp anomaly is better.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on December 25, 2014, 04:31:55 PM
Here in Minnesota, I've seen white Christmas and I've seen brown, but never green.  Until today.  There are lawns around that could be mowed.  How peculiar.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 25, 2014, 08:30:53 PM
Here in Minnesota, I've seen white Christmas and I've seen brown, but never green.  Until today.  There are lawns around that could be mowed.  How peculiar.

Very warm in Chicago as well.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2014, 03:12:26 PM
Chicago:  The National Weather Service posted an apology and a long explanation for their missed forecast for snow on Christmas Eve.
https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/posts/829972097059826 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSChicago/posts/829972097059826)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 26, 2014, 04:04:47 PM
Rapid Arctic warming is spreading south
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2690181/rapid_arctic_warming_is_spreading_south.html (http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_round_up/2690181/rapid_arctic_warming_is_spreading_south.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: lisa on December 26, 2014, 04:54:58 PM
Re: rapid warming moving south

Lake Baikal, near the at 53.5° N is <a href="http://www.climatehotmap.org/global-warming-locations/lake-baikal-russia.html">undergoing dramatic warming, </a>too. 

Same for areas in Canada. 

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2014, 12:14:50 AM
Quote
In what the Malaysian government is calling the worst flooding in more than 30 years, five people have been killed and more than 100,000 displaced across five east coast states.
...
While heavy rain and floods are nothing new for Malaysians, the flooded areas have been hit with “unusually strong torrential rain,” the Associated Press reported, which the country’s meteorological agency predicted will continue until the weekend, spreading into previously unaffected areas.

After a heavy round of rain and flooding in October, Chow Kon Yeow, executive councillor for local government, traffic management and flood mitigation in the Malaysian state of Penang, connected the intensity to climate change. Chow said that the region received more than a month’s worth of rain in a single night, according to the Malaysian Insider. “Some areas that have never seen floods got flooded,” he said.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3606961/worst-flooding-in-decades-malaysia/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3606961/worst-flooding-in-decades-malaysia/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on December 27, 2014, 07:53:27 PM
Long-Range forecasts show that the anomalous low pressure system that formed near Hawaii and is moving up into the north pacific as a sub-tropical vortex will push significant amounts of moisture into the arctic around January 1st.

This is unusual as the system formed near the tropics and is  working to push tropical sst moisture into the arctic in a series of pulses that should produce a massive increase in the arctic vortex.

Here is the System today moving north from Hawaii.  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/26/1800Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/equirectangular=-166.85,42.69,538 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/12/26/1800Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/equirectangular=-166.85,42.69,538)

Here is the forecast prediction that shows a burst of low-altitude tropospheric moisture moving into the arctic.

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2014122712&t=gfs004&r=PA&d=TS (http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2014122712&t=gfs004&r=PA&d=TS)

If it follows the previous patterns, then this will lead to a large increase in regional temperatures as shown at dmi

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on December 29, 2014, 03:36:40 PM
2014 may be first year ever with no below-zero temps in Anchorage
http://www.adn.com/article/20141228/2014-may-be-first-year-ever-no-below-zero-temps-anchorage (http://www.adn.com/article/20141228/2014-may-be-first-year-ever-no-below-zero-temps-anchorage)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on December 30, 2014, 05:35:44 AM
wrong way jet stream
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2014, 05:04:04 PM
Record high pressure over parts of the western US mean record low temperatures.

@BrianBledsoe: BreakingWeatherAlert...Denver [Colorado] touched -19 this evening making this the coldest December 30th since 1898 (-11).  Again...#stupidcold #cowx
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2015, 10:10:52 PM
Climate change gives Denmark its hottest year in record.  (From Dec 17, 2014)
http://www.thelocal.dk/20141217/climate-change-gives-denmark-its-hottest-year-on-record (http://www.thelocal.dk/20141217/climate-change-gives-denmark-its-hottest-year-on-record)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bluesky on January 03, 2015, 12:34:23 AM
...and hottest year in France too, 1.2 C above average, previous record at 1.1C in 2011, hottest also for Spain, Uk, Belgium, Germany (1.4  C above)
http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=20344090 (http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites?articleId=20344090)

Paris had only 2 days of frost in 2014 (new record, previous one was 5 days in 1974) versus 25 on average, Lyon 12 versus 50. Paris stayed 379 days without frost between 14th December 2013 and 28th December 2014, previous record in 1990 with 328 days.
In the South near the Mediterranean sea, there was 10 flooding events in autumn 2014,  another record of the so called "Cevenol events" triggered by exceptionally high sea surface temperature in the Mediteranean sea.... I am sure the list of record in 2014 should be rather long...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bluesky on January 03, 2015, 12:38:50 AM
...apologies, maybe it should in the other thread "mean Europe tempetature in 2014 maybe the highest since 1500" started by Wipneus. Just wonder if it is the highest since the holocene max 6000 years ago...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on January 03, 2015, 09:32:46 AM
This last paragraph in this news article about the Asia Air plane crash caught my eye, I hadn't seen CC mentioned in official-type news reports in the past.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/64599154/AirAsia-flights-behaviour-on-the-edge-of-logic (http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/64599154/AirAsia-flights-behaviour-on-the-edge-of-logic)

"AirAsia chief executive Tony Fernandes said earlier this week he had "full confidence in my fleet and crew". Without giving details, he steered blame towards the weather, saying his airline would continue business as usual, but suggesting that climate change was making weather worse and flying riskier, particularly in the tropics."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Csnavywx on January 03, 2015, 06:33:51 PM
I've seen updraft and downdraft velocities easily exceed 40-50 m/s. Baseball to softball sized hail basically requires speeds in excess of that magnitude to develop.

In a tropical environment, where there is less dry air in the lower-to-middle troposphere, buoyancy driven processes are often more efficient due to less dry air entrainment into the updraft, but hail is often not seen at the surface due to the high freezing level and the hail growth zone (-10C to -30C) being located very far aloft and displaced from the zone of maximum ascent.

So, as for the 24kft/min reading on descent, it might not be as preposterous as it sounds, especially with a 50 or 60 m/s downdraft being exerted on the plane. The comment in the article about "being greater than terminal velocity" isn't necessarily true in this case. It might be true if we're comparing to clear air with little vertical motion, but in a thunderstorm downdraft your terminal velocity is essentially Tv(normal)+downdraft speed.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 02:22:03 AM
Montreal ice storm:
Quote
As of 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, more than 150,000 Hydro-Québec customers were without electricity on and around the island of Montreal after freezing rain encased southern Quebec in ice.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-s-icy-weather-continues-into-night-as-temperatures-plummet-1.2889257 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-s-icy-weather-continues-into-night-as-temperatures-plummet-1.2889257)

You may recall the major Quebec ice storm of 1998, an anniversary just one day away.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 01:53:20 PM
Huge bushfire in South Australia.
Quote
"We have a fire which is extremely dangerous, and it is burning under extremely adverse conditions," South Australia's Country Fire Service chief Greg Nettleton said. "Residents in the Adelaide Hills are being confronted by a fire which hasn't been seen in the hills since the 1983 bushfires of Ash Wednesday."
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/1/3/australia-bushfireadelaide.html (http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/1/3/australia-bushfireadelaide.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 08:03:02 PM
The hottest year ever around the world – in pictures
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/dec/03/hottest-year-ever-around-world-in-pictures (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/dec/03/hottest-year-ever-around-world-in-pictures)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2015, 08:12:06 PM
Here we go:  The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has announced that 2014 was the hottest year in more than 120 years of record-keeping — by far.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/05/3607735/2014-hottest-year-by-far/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/05/3607735/2014-hottest-year-by-far/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 09:12:17 PM
South Australia faces catastrophe from raging wildfires
Quote
With at least 26 houses lost to wildfire in the Adelaide Hills, record warmth across South Australia and temperatures in Perth hitting 44.4C, the real-world impacts of climate change are already being keenly felt in the opening days of 2015.

In Southern Australia, the Adelaide wildfires have been declared a “catastrophe” by the Insurance Council of Australia with more than 12,000 hectares destroyed.

http://tcktcktck.org/2015/01/south-australia-faces-catastrophe-raging-wildfires/65853 (http://tcktcktck.org/2015/01/south-australia-faces-catastrophe-raging-wildfires/65853)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2015, 07:18:58 PM
Billion dollar weather and climate disasters in the US in 2014.
Quote
In 2014, there were 8 weather and climate disaster events with losses exceeding $1 billion each across the United States. These events included a drought event, a flooding event, 5 severe storm events, and a winter storm event. Overall, these events resulted in the deaths of 53 people and had significant economic effects on the areas impacted.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/ (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 13, 2015, 03:14:55 AM
Series of North Atlantic "weatherbombs" unloads on Europe over the week.
http://mashable.com/2015/01/12/north-atlantic-storm-weatherbombs/ (http://mashable.com/2015/01/12/north-atlantic-storm-weatherbombs/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 14, 2015, 05:53:16 PM
Half of Malawi declared disaster zone after flooding
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jan/14/malawi-flooding-torrential-rain-mozambique (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jan/14/malawi-flooding-torrential-rain-mozambique)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2015, 11:24:21 PM
Heavy snow has crippled travel in Ireland and the northern U.K. ahead of a powerful North Atlantic storm.
Quote
Despite their northern location, Ireland and Northern Ireland are not entirely acclimated to snow, given the proximity to the warm North Atlantic current. The current, which originates in the tropics and extends from the Gulf Stream, helps to moderate the temperature in Ireland and the U.K., and often mitigates the formation of snow.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/14/heavy-snow-cripples-travel-in-northern-u-k-ireland-ahead-of-powerful-north-atlantic-storm/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/01/14/heavy-snow-cripples-travel-in-northern-u-k-ireland-ahead-of-powerful-north-atlantic-storm/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2015, 09:05:35 PM
Damage said to likely be ten times that of the previous worst flood in Malawi history.
Quote
In what is likely to be one of 2015's deadliest natural disasters, two weeks of heavy rains have hit the southeastern African nations of Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, triggering rampaging floods that have killed at least 260 people and left 260,000 homeless....
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2898 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2898)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 22, 2015, 02:45:52 PM
As a SW England silver surfer this is of particular interest to me:

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/PICTURES-Porthleven-beach-stripped-sand-freak/story-25907959-detail/story.html (http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/PICTURES-Porthleven-beach-stripped-sand-freak/story-25907959-detail/story.html)

Quote
A popular Cornish beach has been stripped of all its sand overnight by a freak high tide for the first time in living memory. Porthleven is a favourite holiday spot for tourists visiting Cornwall and is famed for its pristine golden sands nestled below the quaint seaside town. But during the recent bad weather so much sand vanished that the once yellow shoreline is now dotted with jagged rocks covered in seaweed and algae.

An oceanographer from Porthleven, Alan Jorgensen, said that he has never seen the level of sand so low in all his years in the village.

Experts calculated that nearly a million tonnes of sand were lost off British beaches last year, with popular beaches in Newquay, Bude and Perranporth also left bare.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westernmorningnews.co.uk%2Fimages%2Flocalworld%2Fugc-images%2F276272%2FArticle%2Fimages%2F25907959%2F9367266-large.jpg&hash=36ee02a300b40eb515a44b0261f428e7)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: johnm33 on January 22, 2015, 03:23:22 PM
Praa, [about a mile long] lost about 4ft overnight last winter, [and about 20ft of the car park] came back in late spring. Last sat. it was down 2ft again and the sand is much finer than it was, likely its washed up from Porthleven.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 26, 2015, 12:42:56 AM
Are you ready for some blizzard, New England?
@wunderground: Dr. Masters says, "Potentially Historic Blizzard Taking Aim on New England" http://t.co/xEtmb1f3H0 (http://t.co/xEtmb1f3H0)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 26, 2015, 01:15:34 AM
Northeast U.S.: off-the-charts weather forecast (from the local National Weather Service office).
@GarySzatkowski: Another snow forecast map, showing totals across the region.  Includes tonight's clipper.  We maxed out the scale. http://t.co/1AwByN8zlg (http://t.co/1AwByN8zlg)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2015, 03:35:16 PM
Oops!  U.S. Nor'easter did not materialize because the system passed by further out to sea.  ECMWF, the Euro weather model -- having predicted a huge storm for several days beforehand -- will likely be knocked down a bit from the pedestal it was put on after the (very good) early call with Superstorm Sandy.  The fallout from all the "unnecessary" storm precautions will be big -- but as we've seen lately, the weather could just as easily been worse than expected.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/blizzard-15/blizzard-bust-nyc-worst-fears-fail-materialize-n294336 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/blizzard-15/blizzard-bust-nyc-worst-fears-fail-materialize-n294336)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2015, 04:53:31 PM
Which is not to say that New England is not getting hit hard by this system.  Heavy snow and flooding.
@NBCNews: Blackout: Power out on Nantucket, homes flooded http://t.co/J7fqfgmWTo (http://t.co/J7fqfgmWTo) #Blizzardof2015 http://t.co/Iy7V0crJim (http://t.co/Iy7V0crJim)

@USATODAY: PHOTOS: #Snowmageddon2015 blankets the Northeast: http://t.co/qL3Sl8VwFd (http://t.co/qL3Sl8VwFd) (Photo: Michael Dwyer, AP) http://t.co/cicG6CJvYh (http://t.co/cicG6CJvYh)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 01, 2015, 11:58:19 AM

The linked Smithsonian article says that climate change driven intensifications of the world's water cycle are contributing to the observed trend of fewer but stronger storms (such as the Nor'easter):

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/climate-change-altering-global-heat-engine-180954079/?no-ist (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/climate-change-altering-global-heat-engine-180954079/?no-ist)

Extract: "Climate scientists have been warning for a while that as the planet heats up, storms will become fewer but stronger. This trend has been seen in a variety of historical data tracking wind speed, rain and snow over the past century or so. Now a team of researchers has figured out why, and the explanation is firmly rooted in atmospheric thermodynamics. Global warming is intensifying the world’s water cycle, and that drains energy from the air circulation that drives stormy weather, …"
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on February 01, 2015, 09:44:20 PM
1/3

The strangest, massive, backward-moving low-pressure bomb in the north east pacific that has ever been witnessed.


image shown, Yesterday, 1/30 12:00 noon pacific time
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on February 01, 2015, 09:46:24 PM
2/3

Same system moving backwards (toward the West and in opposition to the jet stream)  This system is functioning like a "cut-off" low, but it is a supermassive low pressure system that is dominating the region.   It is these types of systems that are wreaking havoc upon the arctic and are just another example of the total collapse of the polar cell, the expansion of the Hadley cell and the "Great Drying" of the pacific western United States.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on February 01, 2015, 09:47:44 PM
3/3

In a few days the blocking high pressure system off of the coast of California will cause multiple low pressure systems in the pacific to combine into a "super cell" low pressure gradient that stretches across most of the entire pacific ocean.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 04, 2015, 12:27:10 AM
The attached image of an Earth surface Wind map for today shows the "super cell" in the North Pacific that jai discussed a couple of days ago:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 04, 2015, 07:45:46 PM
This weather system being discussed has formed the 'atmospheric river' phenomenon and parts of the coast of northern CA and Oregon are expected to get 10+ inches of rain and maybe some places 15 inches.

Unfortunately it appears to be largely missing the Central Valley which is expected to only get 1-2 inches.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on February 04, 2015, 08:54:07 PM
Jeff Master's blog on the event. I'm not sure why these atmospheric rivers are suddenly the media darling--they've been around forever and are not specifically climate change related, though will likely be influenced by them.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 05, 2015, 04:01:53 PM
Jeff Master's blog on the event. I'm not sure why these atmospheric rivers are suddenly the media darling--they've been around forever and are not specifically climate change related, though will likely be influenced by them.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909)

ritter

I think from the climatologist/serious weather forecaster perspective (ignoring that for the media the term sounds cool) it is our much better knowledge now of the paleo-weather record of the AR phenomenom.

Over the last 1000 years there have been 8 or 9 (I can't remember the exact number) massive AR events which hit the west coast.  4 very large ones and 4-5 smaller ones (smaller being gigantic by our standards of today).

The last event occurred in 1861 ( so the next is way overdue by statistical standards) and it was one of the small ones.  And the result of that event was that the Central Valley of California was turned in to a lake some 300 mi by 50 miles.  Early Sacramento was under water for 6 weeks.  Much of the LA basin was under water for months, all of the "dry" lake beds of California and Nevada were filled.  A couple of thousand people died.  And so on.

If such an event occurred today (and it is way overdue) (and the last one was not one of the big ones remember) it would completely eliminate an entire growing season in the Central Valley, completely destroy the farm infrastructure, cities, housing and transportation infrastructure for several millions of people.  It would likely kill tens of thousands.  It would throw the US into a serious economic tailspin.  In other words a natural disaster far beyond anything the US has ever experienced.

An almost Black Swan event, but only almost because we know this will happen again eventually.  Just like the big earthquake in SF/LA is coming.  It is just a matter of time.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on February 05, 2015, 05:45:07 PM
Jeff Master's blog on the event. I'm not sure why these atmospheric rivers are suddenly the media darling--they've been around forever and are not specifically climate change related, though will likely be influenced by them.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2909)

ritter

I think from the climatologist/serious weather forecaster perspective (ignoring that for the media the term sounds cool) it is our much better knowledge now of the paleo-weather record of the AR phenomenom.

Over the last 1000 years there have been 8 or 9 (I can't remember the exact number) massive AR events which hit the west coast.  4 very large ones and 4-5 smaller ones (smaller being gigantic by our standards of today).

The last event occurred in 1861 ( so the next is way overdue by statistical standards) and it was one of the small ones.  And the result of that event was that the Central Valley of California was turned in to a lake some 300 mi by 50 miles.  Early Sacramento was under water for 6 weeks.  Much of the LA basin was under water for months, all of the "dry" lake beds of California and Nevada were filled.  A couple of thousand people died.  And so on.

If such an event occurred today (and it is way overdue) (and the last one was not one of the big ones remember) it would completely eliminate an entire growing season in the Central Valley, completely destroy the farm infrastructure, cities, housing and transportation infrastructure for several millions of people.  It would likely kill tens of thousands.  It would throw the US into a serious economic tailspin.  In other words a natural disaster far beyond anything the US has ever experienced.

An almost Black Swan event, but only almost because we know this will happen again eventually.  Just like the big earthquake in SF/LA is coming.  It is just a matter of time.

Yes, Jim. We've got a team on it! The ARk Storm! http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/arkstorm.html (http://meteora.ucsd.edu/cap/arkstorm.html)

It would indeed be a tragic event. And, as you note, we're similarly overdue for a massive quake along the West Coast. I guess my point was just that it's not a new phenomenon and seems to get lumped in with climate change. There is some evidence that the outlier will increase in strength, but we expect that with most strong storm systems. There's simply more energy to fuel them.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 06, 2015, 07:08:56 PM
Here in South West England we're rapidly moving from "anecdotal" to "scientific" evidence:

http://news.agu.org/press-release/huge-2014-british-storms-shook-cliffs-more-than-ever-previously-recorded/ (http://news.agu.org/press-release/huge-2014-british-storms-shook-cliffs-more-than-ever-previously-recorded/)

Quote
Over January-February 2014, during the most energetic Atlantic storm period since at least 1950, with deep water significant wave heights of six to eight meters (20 to 26 feet), cliff-top ground motions showed vertical ground displacements in excess of 50 to 100 microns; an order of magnitude larger than observations made previously anywhere in the world.

Using seismometers on loan from Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif., Earlie and the team embedded the instruments seven meters (23 feet) from the cliff edge. Within two weeks, they were just five meters (16 feet) from the edge, such had been the rate of erosion.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 07, 2015, 03:22:33 AM
@EricHolthaus: Boston snowplows have already travelled 2/3 of the way from Earth to the Moon this winter. Another foot of snow on the way.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/02/06/boston_snow_storm_another_foot_is_on_the_way_also_freezing_cold.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 07, 2015, 04:16:17 AM
Meanwhile, ski resorts in California and Oregon are closing due to lack of snow.
http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/01/more-ski-resorts-close-due-to-lack-of-snow (http://unofficialnetworks.com/2015/01/more-ski-resorts-close-due-to-lack-of-snow)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on February 09, 2015, 06:20:13 PM
Anyone else in North America getting the feeling spring is coming early this year?  I'm in southeastern Minnesota and I've noticed a few things that make me think winter's on its way out sooner rather than later.

#1: 60s have been back and forth in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota all winter long. The cold hasn't been able to persistently build very far south this winter. 70s have been in Kansas. We've had the jet stream wavering back and forth over top of us for most of winter bouncing us back and forth between warm and cool, rather than far to our south keeping is locked in cold air. As this pattern starts to move north with the seasons, we'll soon be solidly on the warm side of things.

#2. #1 is a direct effect of upper level pattern changes: the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge (RRR) over the west coast and the semi-persistent downstream east coast trough pattern has generally moved several hundred miles east, and even been prone to flattening out at times. This keeps us out of the direct path of Arctic outbreaks and more on the sidelines. The previous location of the setup had led to us being one of the coldest places in the world relative to average for about 2 years. It sucks in the winter but last summer was amazing. Statistically that's unlikely to last and I think we're seeing it break down with the pattern shift to the east.

#3: A generally positive trend in the Arctic Oscillation index so far this winter is predicted to continue by the CPC. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml)

#4. Maple trees are entering budswell several weeks early.

#5. A distinct increase in bird activity over the last two weeks. It's downright loud outside with birds around here at times. I've also heard but not seen for myself that the deer are especially active lately, but I cannot verify that.

#6. We can't keep a decent snowpack this winter and there's not much going on to our south or west either. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201502/nsm_depth_2015020905_National.jpg (http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_depth/201502/nsm_depth_2015020905_National.jpg)  It might keep snowing through spring but we've been on the border of snow and freezing rain all winter so again I think as soon as that border starts to shift north with the seasons we're going to be solidly on the warm side of it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on February 09, 2015, 07:09:05 PM
Yes! I'm in Minneapolis and starting to see the same. Though we are do for another dip into the supzero temps, soon (barely).

http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:55401.1.99999 (http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:55401.1.99999)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2015, 01:48:15 AM
Here's a Weather Underground blog on the current extreme rain and toastiness in the U.S. west and cold/snow storms in the east.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2913 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2913)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2015, 02:57:26 AM
Australia's scorching 2013 heat record was 'virtually impossible' without global warming.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/09/australias-scorching-2013-heat-record-was-virtually-impossible-without-global-warming/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/02/09/australias-scorching-2013-heat-record-was-virtually-impossible-without-global-warming/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2015, 02:25:56 AM
Yellowstone Park Grizzlie Bears Waking Up Early Due To Mild Winter
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/11/3621733/yellowstone-grizzly-bears-rising-early-mild-winter/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/11/3621733/yellowstone-grizzly-bears-rising-early-mild-winter/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2015, 02:49:25 AM
Big change due to no snow:  Start of Alaska's famed Iditarod dog-sled race moved from Willow to Fairbanks, upper right. (Nome is upper left.)

Snowless Alaska forces Iditarod race change.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/02/11/iditarod-race-alaska-snow-fairbanks/23247145/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/02/11/iditarod-race-alaska-snow-fairbanks/23247145/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on February 14, 2015, 03:34:05 PM
http://theconversation.com/air-pollution-from-europe-and-america-is-making-the-tropics-drier-37395 (http://theconversation.com/air-pollution-from-europe-and-america-is-making-the-tropics-drier-37395)

Quote
Air pollution pumped out by factories and power plants in Europe and North America has led to drier spells in the tropics, thousands of miles to the south. Scientists had long suspected this was the case and even had modelled the change in computer simulations, but now for the first time we have direct evidence – straight from a cave in Belize.
...
Precipitation in the tropics, including Belize, is governed by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) – a belt of monsoon rainfall encircling the Earth near the equator that migrates seasonally between the hemispheres. The relative temperature difference between the hemispheres plays a crucial role in controlling the position of the ITCZ and hence, rainfall distribution in the tropics.

What we found was a distinct drying trend in Belize since 1850 that coincides with a steady rise in industrial aerosol emissions in North America and Europe. This presents strong evidence that industrial sulfate emissions have shifted the position of the ITCZ through reflecting the Sun’s incoming radiation and therefore moderating warming in the northern hemisphere.
...
Our claims are backed up by the volcano record. Emissions from volcanoes are similar to those produced by burning fossils fuels – basically lots of sulphur – and we identified short-lived drier spells in the northern tropics following very large volcanic eruptions in the northern hemisphere, such as the Icelandic Laki eruption in 1783.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 14, 2015, 03:44:50 PM
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=134130&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1 (http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=134130&WT.mc_id=USNSF_1)

Monster hurricanes struck U.S. Northeast during prehistoric periods of ocean warming

Quote
Intense hurricanes possibly more powerful than any storms New England has experienced in recorded history frequently pounded the region during the first millennium, from the peak of the Roman Empire to the height of the Middle Ages, according to results of a new study..

Warmer sea surface temperatures

The intense prehistoric hurricanes were fueled in part by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean than have been the norm off the U.S. East Coast over the last few hundred years.

However, as ocean temperatures have slowly inched upward in recent decades, tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures have surpassed the warmth of prehistoric levels--and are expected to warm more over the next century as the climate heats up, Donnelly said.

"We hope this study broadens our sense of what is possible and what we should expect in a warmer climate," Donnelly said. "We may need to begin planning for a category 3 hurricane landfall every decade or so rather than every 100 or 200 years.

"The risk may be much greater than we anticipated."..
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 15, 2015, 01:47:03 PM
Boston is bracing for its third blizzard in as many weeks.  This one could be comparable to a Category 2 hurricane.
Quote
What is causing these storms?
Mother Nature's shock-and-awe campaign of snowstorms in New England has largely resulted from a stubborn weather pattern featuring a broad area of high pressure over the West, which has led to record warmth there, and a deep dip, or trough, in the jet stream across the eastern U.S.

Disturbances embedded in this jet stream, which is the high altitude river of air that blows from west to east across the Northern Hemisphere, steering and giving rise to storm systems in the process, have repeatedly led to the explosive development of low pressure areas at the surface off the coast of Long Island and Cape Cod.

These storms are powered by temperature differences across short distances, which meteorologists call baroclinic low pressure systems. Aiding in the rapid development process have been unusually mild sea surface temperatures off parts of the East Coast, although it's entirely likely the storms would have formed anyway, and been intense, even without those temperature anomalies.

The Gulf Stream current, which carries warm water off the East Coast and into the North Atlantic, has long been an ignition source — like a match thrown onto a gasoline spill — for northeastern winter storms in particular. This year has been no exception.
http://mashable.com/2015/02/13/boston-blizzard-category-2-hurricane/ (http://mashable.com/2015/02/13/boston-blizzard-category-2-hurricane/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 15, 2015, 02:05:16 PM
@NWSBoston: Curious about what something akin to a thunderstorm would look like in the winter?  It would look like this snow band http://t.co/KYe3ZesboC (http://t.co/KYe3ZesboC)

@EricHolthaus: Peak Winter: #thundersnow MT @jjabraham: There it is! #Lightning and #thundersnow being reported around Boston! http://t.co/MZ0ZtY94d1 (http://t.co/MZ0ZtY94d1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 16, 2015, 12:40:54 AM
Eastern U.S. is experiencing multiple outbreaks of frigid polar air.

@afreedma: From Feb. 16 to Feb. 21, about 103 million people in the lower 48 states will experience temps of 0 deg F [-18°C] or below
http://mashable.com/2015/02/15/arctic-blast-outdoes-polar-vortex/ (http://mashable.com/2015/02/15/arctic-blast-outdoes-polar-vortex/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on February 17, 2015, 06:27:14 PM
We've enjoyed a nice 75*+ stretch of days here in the Northern Bay Area. Shorts and t-shirt weather for the three day weekend. It's really enjoyable until you start thinking about the why and realize you're watering your potted plants. In mid February.  :o
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2015, 08:49:07 PM
Squaw Valley has canceled a week of World Cup skicross and snowboardcross races in early March due to poor snow levels at the resort.
http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/15061512-113/poor-snow-causes-squaw-valley-to-cancels-march-4-8-fis (http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/15061512-113/poor-snow-causes-squaw-valley-to-cancels-march-4-8-fis)

Geo-engineering writ small?
Despite snow-making machines (when it's cold enough) and cloud seeding (when conditions are right),
Climate Change Could Decimate the American Ski Industry
Quote
The 2015 world ski championships concluded Sunday in Vail, Colorado, but climate change could put future championships in peril. Many athletes and resort owners fear what a warmer future holds for an industry that relies on consistent snow to attract winter sporting enthusiasts. And they're starting to call for political action.

Skiers in the Pacific Northwest are already feeling the heat. The Summit at Snoqualmie, near Seattle, closed its highest and last remaining open slope last week because of poor conditions. The situation there hues closely to what's happening all across the West.

"Based on a 60-year record, the total amount of snow that we've lost in the West varies anywhere from 15 to 60 percent," Noah Molotch, an assistant professor at the University of Colorado Boulder's Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, told VICE News.

Focusing on the skiing industry may seem quaint, or even elitist, compared with the need of protecting coastal cities from sea-level rise or the agricultural sector from drought. But winter sports recreation generates $67 billion annually for the US economy, propping up 900,000 jobs. Its collapse could kill entire local and regional economies across the West or in New England.

https://news.vice.com/article/climate-change-could-decimate-the-american-ski-industry (https://news.vice.com/article/climate-change-could-decimate-the-american-ski-industry)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2015, 03:30:31 AM
24 Pictures That Perfectly Capture How Insane The Snow In New England Is
http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/please-stop-snowing (http://www.buzzfeed.com/mjs538/please-stop-snowing)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2015, 10:08:54 PM
Climate change is affecting Mt. Everest climbing routes.
Quote
Canadian avalanche specialist Tom Rippel, an Everest guide whose expedition was canceled, blogged about climate change’s role in the disaster.

“The mountain has been deteriorating rapidly the past three years due global warming and the breakdown in the Khumbu Icefall is dramatic, especially at the upper Icefall,” he wrote. “Each day we sit and listen to the groaning and crashing of the glacier.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/02/18/after-searing-tragedy-everests-deadliest-route-is-now-off-limits/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/02/18/after-searing-tragedy-everests-deadliest-route-is-now-off-limits/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2015, 03:28:12 PM
Sub-zero (°F!) temps (literally from Siberia) blanket much of eastern US, breaking century-old records.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/siberian-express-brings-arctic-air-record-lows-u-s-n308621 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/siberian-express-brings-arctic-air-record-lows-u-s-n308621)
https://twitter.com/tomniziol/status/567713206328897536 (https://twitter.com/tomniziol/status/567713206328897536)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2015, 03:47:40 PM
Mashable looks at the weird weather in the U.S. this winter.  Although century-old low temperature records are being broken, there have actually been many more warm records set.
http://mashable.com/2015/02/18/u-s-winter-extreme-cold-record-warmth/ (http://mashable.com/2015/02/18/u-s-winter-extreme-cold-record-warmth/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on February 19, 2015, 06:28:30 PM
I may have been premature in calling early Minnesota spring.  If this is our pattern shift from winter to spring, it might be back to average or later.  Should have known it was too early to call the RRR/downstream trough gone yet.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2015, 09:19:40 PM
Another item to add to the list of unexpected problems caused by extreme weather.

@afreedma: Portland, Maine's snow dump has grown so tall it's posing a potential danger to aircraft http://t.co/s1rYHiSn32 (http://t.co/s1rYHiSn32)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2015, 09:24:02 PM
@RyanMaue: Easy to see Eastern USA cold blast compared to rest of world.  By far the most "extreme cold" compared to normal
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jester Fish on February 20, 2015, 12:07:07 AM
Hmmm....there seems to be a pattern.. :o :-X

But some meteorologists still contend it has nothing to do with climate change......http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-origin-of-this-winters-weather.html (http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-origin-of-this-winters-weather.html)....there's even a guest appearance in the comments from Jennifer Francis toward Cliff's unsubstantiated rejection of her research as "deeply flawed".
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 03:16:28 AM
As @PeterGleick from the Pacific Institute tweeted today, in reference to the Feb 1-17 U.S. temperature anomaly chart:  "We broke the weather."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 03:19:05 AM
Two cyclones are hitting land in Australia within the same few hours. They are coming from quite different directions, too.
http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/02/australia-is-being-battered-by-two.html (http://blog.hotwhopper.com/2015/02/australia-is-being-battered-by-two.html)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 03:43:57 AM
Feb 19, 2015.  5:40pm. ET
@RyanMillerABC7: Barrow, Alaska, 2,247 miles closer to the North Pole than Washington, DC. Both currently at 17F. ...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on February 20, 2015, 04:10:35 PM
Kind of interesting piece of news.  No mention of why this has happened.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/water-in-russia-s-famed-lake-baikal-reaches-new-threshold (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/water-in-russia-s-famed-lake-baikal-reaches-new-threshold)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 05:15:57 PM
Australia: Cyclone Marcia: Climate change is expanding the tropics
Quote
Last year, a study led by scientists at the US based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity, argued that the areas where cyclones were reaching their most powerful were shifting towards the North and South Poles at the rate of 56 kilometres a decade.
...
The Bureau of Meteorology said the near-simultaneous landing of Cyclone Lam on the Northern Territory coast and Cyclone Marcia is the first recorded instance of twin severe cyclone events.
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cyclone-marcia-climate-change-is-expanding-the-tropics-20150220-13kdfi.html (http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/cyclone-marcia-climate-change-is-expanding-the-tropics-20150220-13kdfi.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on February 20, 2015, 09:58:20 PM
New piece by J. Francis:    
A melting Arctic and weird weather: the plot thickens


http://skepticalscience.com/warming-arctic-weird-weather.html (http://skepticalscience.com/warming-arctic-weird-weather.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 21, 2015, 01:16:21 AM
Quote
We need help, now.
Boston's Winter From Hell.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/opinion/bostons-winter-from-hell.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/opinion/bostons-winter-from-hell.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 22, 2015, 02:25:55 PM
Outside of the very snowy Northeast, much of the U.S. has seen less than half of their normal snowfall this winter.
Quote
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/dry-west-snowy-boston-winter-weather-splits-us-18684
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 22, 2015, 08:06:49 PM
New piece by J. Francis:    
A melting Arctic and weird weather: the plot thickens


http://skepticalscience.com/warming-arctic-weird-weather.html (http://skepticalscience.com/warming-arctic-weird-weather.html)

Regarding this pattern that has locked in over North America which is driving horrific cold into the eastern half of the continent and record snows in the Northeast, could it be setting setting up to be a semi-permanent pattern in northern hemisphere winters? This is not the first recent winter for weather like this. I believe that what is driving it is the emergence of a cold pole over Greenland and the Canadian archipelago. The, for the time being, permanent Greenland ice sheet and loss of Arctic Ocean ice is causing this and will be a feature that locks in and causes entirely new behaviors of winter weather.

My biggest fear is the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" in the Pacific and the Terrifically Tenacious Trough" in the Northern Atlantic are here to stay as a phenomena. I hope I am wrong as this feature is driving the drought in the western U.S. and could very well wash Wales and southern England into the seas.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 22, 2015, 09:23:24 PM
I suppose it all depends on your weighting of the evidence?

If we drove low sea ice then we drive the triple R, if that is so then we are driving the PDO into positive and so a predominance of Nino's and a heat burst across the globe.

is it so?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 22, 2015, 11:46:49 PM
I suppose it all depends on your weighting of the evidence?

If we drove low sea ice then we drive the triple R, if that is so then we are driving the PDO into positive and so a predominance of Nino's and a heat burst across the globe.

is it so?

Clearly not a predominance of Nino's.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 23, 2015, 10:10:39 AM
Give it chance (LOL)!

PDO positive, over it's 'average' course, shows a predominance of nino's so if we see a predominance of triple r positioning that allows for ocean warming in the 'warm horse shoe' then will this somehow tip the balance in favour of nino's?

The negative PDO this time has seen the growth of anomalous trades and so upwelling nina events ( even if they were our warmest nina's recorded!) and a piling up of the 'warm pool' in the equatorial Pacific west.

Now we see PDO positive and the trades appear to be faltering so what of this 'warm pile' of waters to the west? Will gravity just allow it to slosh back east? Modoki event?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 24, 2015, 12:38:18 AM
Another unusual consequence of the recent extreme cold in the northeast U.S.:  the Chesapeake Bay has iced over.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/23/extreme-february-cold-ices-over-most-of-chesapeake-bay-in-rare-event/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/23/extreme-february-cold-ices-over-most-of-chesapeake-bay-in-rare-event/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 24, 2015, 06:19:39 PM
The extreme winter is costing the U.S. at least $5 billion, analysts say.  And more cold and snow are in the forecast.
http://mashable.com/2015/02/23/frigid-winter-blizzards-5-billion-damage/ (http://mashable.com/2015/02/23/frigid-winter-blizzards-5-billion-damage/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 24, 2015, 06:42:29 PM
@ericfisher: Bangor, ME is about to finish its coldest month ever recorded, and destroy it by 2º.
Via @NWSCaribou #MEwx
http://t.co/JV55XV2wGO (http://t.co/JV55XV2wGO)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 28, 2015, 02:42:52 AM
Cartoon for folks stuck in the Winter That Just Won't Quit.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 28, 2015, 03:26:38 AM
"It's so cold that waves froze in Nantucket!"
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/571463543008182272
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 28, 2015, 04:10:15 AM
great image!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 02, 2015, 03:02:11 PM
NOAA NWS Ocean Prediction Center notes there were "NO extratropical hurricane force systems analyzed by the OPC in the North Pacific during the month of February this year."

"Where have they all gone?  Most of the stronger activity has moved downstream into the Atlantic.  This is mostly due to the persistence of cold air over the North Atlantic basin."

https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/838590149533051:0 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/838590149533051:0)


EDIT.  Here is where the action is, presently:
Quote
The latest OPC 48 hour Atlantic surface & wind/wave forecast charts show a 949mb hurricane force low between Canada & Greenland with wave heights up to 13 meters as a result!
https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/838632036195529 (https://www.facebook.com/NWSOPC/posts/838632036195529)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 02, 2015, 11:51:32 PM
February was one of the most bipolar months in U.S. weather history.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/02/record-cold-and-heat-bipolar-february/ (http://mashable.com/2015/03/02/record-cold-and-heat-bipolar-february/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 03, 2015, 01:08:15 AM
Alaska is seeing record warmth and dangerous freezing rain.  Nome had thundersnow.
Quote
And on Feb. 24, National Weather Service employees in Nome, Alaska, which is about 100 miles south of the Arctic Circle, witnessed an extremely rare, if not unprecedented, event for that location: thundersnow. The NWS observers saw several lightning flashes accompanied by thunder and heavy snow.

Thoman told Mashable in an interview that thundersnow, which is typically seen in more temperate locations in the continental U.S. since its formation requires relatively warm, unstable air aloft, had never been seen before in Nome.
http://mashable.com/2015/02/26/alaska-warmer-less-snow-than-boston/ (http://mashable.com/2015/02/26/alaska-warmer-less-snow-than-boston/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 05, 2015, 09:06:15 PM
The only good news: this may be the last winter storm of the season.  Jet stream looks poised to shift.

@BuzzFeedStorm: Drivers stranded overnight on Kentucky highways as winter storm hammers region http://t.co/pC9zOdZLxz (http://t.co/pC9zOdZLxz) http://t.co/Tqz62Hd2Y9 (http://t.co/Tqz62Hd2Y9)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 05, 2015, 09:12:38 PM
Oxford University study: 
Quote
Worsening droughts in the Amazon - dubbed the 'lungs of the world' - are speeding up climate change, scientists have warned.
Trees are absorbing up to a tenth less carbon dioxide from the atmosphere during droughts and the forests actually emit more carbon than they capture.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2980190/Droughts-Amazon-speeding-climate-change-Lungs-planet-emitting-CO2-capture.html (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2980190/Droughts-Amazon-speeding-climate-change-Lungs-planet-emitting-CO2-capture.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 06, 2015, 12:35:39 PM
When Texas is colder than Alaska and Svalbard the Climate has changed!!

This is merely anecdotal, but it gives some more credence to Dr. Jennifer Francis's theory of Arctic Amplification.

Current Temperatures, early morning March 5th, 2015

Hunt, Texas (Heart of the Texas hill Country)   -7o(C)   19o(F)
Longyearben, Svalbard    1o(C)   34o(F)
Kodiak, Alaska   3o(C)   37o(F)
Anchorage Alaska  1o(C)   34o(F)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on March 08, 2015, 06:09:20 PM
The western ridge has moved east again, and moved into a more zonal flow configuration.  Right after I posted about the pattern change in January, it went back to it's previous configuration for February with a stiff eastern trough, and I questioned whether maybe we had only witnessed a temporary change.  But it's shifted again, which is quite nice for us in Minnesota.  After a much colder than average February and early March, winter ended Friday here.  Spring may yet end up early here temperaturewise, but adequate moisture is now looking questionable.  Drought monitor shows D1 growing.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: skanky on March 08, 2015, 11:46:15 PM
Probably should go in Science but EGU session on Arctic influence on mid lat weather:

http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2015/orals/18185 (http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2015/orals/18185)

Other sessions on topics relevant to other threads on the forum.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 12, 2015, 02:00:08 AM
Alaska's weather is broken.
Quote
This winter, Anchorage has essentially transformed into a less sunny version of Seattle. As of March 9, the city has received less than one-third of its normal amount of snow. In its place? Rain. Lots of rain. In fact, schools in the Anchorage area are now more likely to cancel school due to rain and street flooding than cold and snow.
...
That means Alaska’s weather, according to one Alaska meteorologist, is “broken.” Dave Snider, who reports statewide weather daily for the National Weather Service’s Alaska office in Anchorage, tweeted the sentiment back in mid-January. Snider emphasizes that this isn’t the official view of the National Weather Service, “of course.” Snider told me he made the comment “sort of in jest” but points to the nearly snow-free Iditarod start as evidence.
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2015/03/climate_change_is_already_affecting_alaska_s_weather.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: LRC1962 on March 12, 2015, 02:56:16 AM
Very informative but distressing read. As Florida will be underwater soon, maybe the retirement capital of North America should be moved to there.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on March 12, 2015, 07:05:31 AM
Very informative but distressing read. As Florida will be underwater soon, maybe the retirement capital of North America should be moved to there.

along with every major town and city from Abilene, TX to Vegas, NV and north to Amarillo.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: LRC1962 on March 12, 2015, 08:43:51 AM
Very informative but distressing read. As Florida will be underwater soon, maybe the retirement capital of North America should be moved to there.

along with every major town and city from Abilene, TX to Vegas, NV and north to Amarillo.
Problem with those places. Water. Or lake thereof. :'(
Edit: Unintended typo
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on March 13, 2015, 07:34:26 AM
Tropical Cyclone Pam = category 5 - in the South Pacific:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11416881 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11416881)

and expected to be a serious ex-tropical cyclone when it nears NZ's East Coast in a few days time.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11416848 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11416848)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: johnm33 on March 13, 2015, 07:57:57 PM
Good shots of Pam at woksat http://www.woksat.info/etcxc13/indexxc13.html (http://www.woksat.info/etcxc13/indexxc13.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on March 13, 2015, 11:04:16 PM
Update-
Very difficult conditions now in Vanuatu, many people there live in very flimsy dwellings, lucky ones near the capital Pt Vila were able to get shelter in hotels & sturdier buildings:

http://mashable.com/2015/03/13/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-catastrophic-damage/ (http://mashable.com/2015/03/13/cyclone-pam-vanuatu-catastrophic-damage/)

Dozens feared dead after monstrous Cyclone Pam makes direct hit on Vanuatu:
MetService said the storm had intensified overnight and was was expected to get even stronger during the course of the day.
At 1am NZT the severe tropical storm was located around 70 kilometres east of Port Vila, the capital of Vanuatu.
The category 5 cyclone "intensified slightly overnight", MetService said, with the central pressure dropping to an estimated 899hPa and winds close to the centre of about 250km/h.
"The area of gales (65km/h winds) is estimated to extend up to 380km from the centre of the cyclone, affecting much of Vanuatu," MetService said in a 5.20am update.
"TC Pam is still moving slowly south, and is expected to cross the southern Vanuatu islands of Erromango and Tanna during the next 12 hours while intensifying slightly."
 
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11417234 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11417234)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on March 16, 2015, 05:56:46 PM
Vanuatu disaster prompts calls for climate change action
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27167-vanuatu-disaster-prompts-calls-for-climate-change-action.html?cmpid=RSS (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27167-vanuatu-disaster-prompts-calls-for-climate-change-action.html?cmpid=RSS)|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.VQcKJs13_z8

Relief Teams Report Devastation And Death After Monster Vanuatu Cyclone
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/16/vanuatu-cyclone-destruction_n_6875626.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/16/vanuatu-cyclone-destruction_n_6875626.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2015, 11:00:47 PM
A couple more storms headed for the northeast US, per GFS model.  Will they bring still more snow to Boston?

Boston clinches snowiest season on record amid winter of superlatives
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/15/boston-clinches-snowiest-season-on-record-amid-winter-of-superlatives/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/03/15/boston-clinches-snowiest-season-on-record-amid-winter-of-superlatives/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2015, 11:32:07 PM
Landslide!  Charleston, West Virginia.

@Ginger_Zee: Charleston has had >4" of rain this month: > 2 X avg.
 Lt Col Todd Harrell WV National Guard Public Affairs Office
http://t.co/1jGBDXsKKT (http://t.co/1jGBDXsKKT)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on March 16, 2015, 11:49:59 PM
A day or two later, the church building was splinters.
http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/03/16/yeager-airport-landslide-new-videos-on-youtube-portray-the-damage/ (http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/03/16/yeager-airport-landslide-new-videos-on-youtube-portray-the-damage/)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.agu.org%2Flandslideblog%2Ffiles%2F2015%2F03%2F15_03-Yeager-5-e1426491031362.jpg&hash=a5317659d868edb9162d0660ce3a8556)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2015, 11:56:14 PM
The landslide is a good example of unexpected costs associated with climate change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2015, 01:23:39 PM
Commentary in the Alaska Dispatch News.  "Climate change is culture change."
Quote
Like the saying that you can’t appreciate what you have until it’s gone, it’s not until the climate you grew up with changes that you realize how much of yourself and your culture has grown out of the weather you experience.
http://www.adn.com/article/20150317/melting-traditions-climate-change-also-means-culture-change (http://www.adn.com/article/20150317/melting-traditions-climate-change-also-means-culture-change)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 12:36:23 AM
Record heat in Australia:
Quote
Large parts of Queensland will continue to bake in unprecedented hot autumn conditions with the heatwave expected to last for days, according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).

BoM said one outback western Queensland community yesterday recorded the hottest day this late in March in the state's history and there were more extreme conditions predicted today.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-19/queensland-could-swelter-through-extreme-march-weather/6331616 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-19/queensland-could-swelter-through-extreme-march-weather/6331616)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 21, 2015, 05:41:43 PM
Forecast:  Spring 2015 in U.S. = ( extreme summer West + extreme winter East ) continued
Quote
BOTTOM LINE: An extreme weather pattern is shaping up across the U.S. that favors for hot weather over the West and cold weather over the Northeast during late March into early April. The hot weather over the West will likely break records and further amplify the severe drought conditions that have been plaguing California over the past year. The cold weather over the Northeast looks to be most amplified around the turn of the month and there is risk for records to be broken.
http://www.wsi.com/blog/uncategorized/extreme-weather-pattern-expected-across-the-u-s-during-late-march-into-early-april-record-heat-in-california-as-winter-returns-across-the-northeast/ (http://www.wsi.com/blog/uncategorized/extreme-weather-pattern-expected-across-the-u-s-during-late-march-into-early-april-record-heat-in-california-as-winter-returns-across-the-northeast/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on March 27, 2015, 10:02:32 AM
Floods hit the Atacama desert in Chile, while drought hits the normally wet south of the country.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-32081748 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-32081748)

http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/live-news/2015/3/chiles-atacama-desert-hit-with-flash-floods.html (http://america.aljazeera.com/watch/shows/live-news/2015/3/chiles-atacama-desert-hit-with-flash-floods.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on March 27, 2015, 08:58:32 PM
pikaia

Wow that is amazing.  To have that kind of rain in the driest desert on Earth is something.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 28, 2015, 01:43:13 PM
I am nearly 60 years old, have always lived in the upper Midwest of the U.S. and can only say this is one screwed up weather forecast. The weathermen use to predict the movement of fronts across the country, bringing with it alternating periods of cool, warm, wet and dry periods. Now they talk about stationary ridges and locked in jet streams and how they  might flip.

We have broken the weather.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/mid-april-weather-pattern-change-milder-northeast-california-rain/44615205 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/mid-april-weather-pattern-change-milder-northeast-california-rain/44615205)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on March 28, 2015, 07:34:35 PM
I agree, Shared Humanity.  In Minnesota, the defining feature of our spring and fall weather had been being underneath the undulating jet stream, on either side as fronts pass back and forth, bringing steady alternating bouts of sunshine and precipitation.  Now it just doesn't work like that anymore.  In the last five years I can count on my hands the number of times we've been under a regime like I just described.  I can see where in the southern US where they don't see the jet stream as often that they might not recognize climate change as easily as us, but for those in the northern tier living under the jet stream day in and day out (not anymore!) it's impossible to miss.  These persistent blocky patterns are like nothing I recognize.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 31, 2015, 10:07:30 PM
The big high pressure ridge that brought extreme cold to the eastern US this winter is also responsible for the extreme lack of tornadoes (16% of normal!) in the middle of the country.

A quiet year for severe weather...so far
http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html (http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2015, 02:23:59 PM
And then this happened:
Quote
A 1,000-mile stretch of the [U.S.] South was battered by a ferocious mix of wind, lightning, and baseball-sized hail in some areas on Tuesday.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/south-pelted-hail-wind-lightning-midwest-could-be-next-n333771 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/south-pelted-hail-wind-lightning-midwest-could-be-next-n333771)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2015, 04:15:21 PM
With amazing photos of Super Typhoon Maysak from the International Space Station.
Quote
Super Typhoon Maysak has already set records by achieving its high intensity, marking the first time there have been two major typhoons of Category 3 or above before April 1.

The typhoon is the third of the year so far in the Western Pacific, which sets a record for the most typhoons so early in the Western Pacific typhoon season. Typically, the most active period in this ocean basin is from May through October.
http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/space-station-photo-record-super-typhoon/ (http://mashable.com/2015/03/31/space-station-photo-record-super-typhoon/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on April 01, 2015, 06:01:24 PM
A quiet year for severe weather...so far
http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html (http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html)

I disagree. Out here on the west coast, the lack of weather has resulted in extreme drought. Out there on the east coast, the lack of a break in the weather has led to some extreme snow build ups. The events themselves (or lack thereof) may not be extreme, but the change in periodicity is.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 01, 2015, 06:38:39 PM
A quiet year for severe weather...so far
http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html (http://www.gensiniwx.com/2015/03/a-quiet-year-for-severe-weatherso-far.html)

I disagree. Out here on the west coast, the lack of weather has resulted in extreme drought. Out there on the east coast, the lack of a break in the weather has led to some extreme snow build ups. The events themselves (or lack thereof) may not be extreme, but the change in periodicity is.

Quite so.  In the linked article, the only "severe weather" they examine is tornadoes.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: LRC1962 on April 01, 2015, 11:24:53 PM
Severe is not the same as extreme and one location is not universal. The Atlantic has been quiet this year as regards to hurricanes, the midwest as far as tornadoes. But for Boston to have multiple times more snow than Alaska? For there be such a strong east west delineation between hot and dry and cold and snowy? For the Arctic to be inundated with multiple simultaneous cyclones over a lengthy period of time? For South America to have such a reversal of weather conditions from normal expectations?
The article is right about severity, but the message is totally wrong when you add in the extreme factor. This is the problem of how you present your message. This is also the problem of climatologist trying to convey what is to come. A person can understand a jump from a category 2 to a category 4 hurricane. Where questions start coming about reliability is that the experts can not tell you with any confidence is if, where and when, any specific type of weather events will occur.
I am in no way a denialist, but for the day to day person on the street, all they want to know is what are things going to be like where I live 30 years from now and if what I am doing today will make any difference?  Washing hands means less sickness (that is if I can get any clean water in the first place). Paying for schools means my kids get an education, paying for health care means I have access to a doctor, paying for police means I am protected from the bad guys. By the way paying for roof solar cells may or may not pay off financially in the long run and unless the majority do the same thing really will not make a difference in the outcomes, then add to that the question of understanding what the outcomes are actually going to be, that is when the message gets really muddy. It is for that reason I believe the only reliable long term action must come from government, because then the man on the street has no choice. The problem is that big money right now owns the government.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 02, 2015, 07:01:27 PM
Given that the blog is "A Diary of Storm Chases, Trips, and Weather Events," from a college professor in Illinois, no doubt the article was directed at people living in Tornado Alley, to whom "severe weather" primarily means severe thunderstorms and tornadoes, which is the data the article cited.  It's a local weather discussion, not a national or global climate analysis.  To people who live with the almost year-round threat of deadly weather, the "tornado drought" of 2015 is indeed a "quiet year...so far."


Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 03, 2015, 01:45:30 PM
In any case, severe weather has now returned to the country's midsection.

Storms Bring Rain, Floods and Tornadoes to Missouri, Kentucky
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storms-bring-rain-floods-tornadoes-missouri-kentucky-n335076 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storms-bring-rain-floods-tornadoes-missouri-kentucky-n335076)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 04, 2015, 01:54:05 AM
An unusually large number of people in the U.S. couldn't work in March because of bad weather.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-03/here-s-why-the-march-jobs-report-wasn-t-as-bad-as-you-think (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-03/here-s-why-the-march-jobs-report-wasn-t-as-bad-as-you-think)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 04, 2015, 03:36:01 PM
In any case, severe weather has now returned to the country's midsection.

Storms Bring Rain, Floods and Tornadoes to Missouri, Kentucky
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storms-bring-rain-floods-tornadoes-missouri-kentucky-n335076 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/storms-bring-rain-floods-tornadoes-missouri-kentucky-n335076)

This  is  completely  normal for this time of  year. Chicago got some  heavy rains on Thursday.  A normal spring  will deliver many  more.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on April 04, 2015, 04:24:14 PM
The absence of severe weather up until this point has been rather abnormal though.  I'm used to reading tornado reports all throughout March.

Spring continues its early arrival here in Minnesota.  When we've had frost as late as Mother's day, I'm a little nervous about my perennials breaking bud already.  Gooseberries and currants are already broken while grapes and raspberries are beginning to swell.  Grapes are among the latest breakers of bud, so it's interesting to see them swelling already.  Iceout on all the local lakes is about 9 days earlier than average.  Maple syrup season has come and gone already in March, with most trees producing poorly due to the extreme early warmth and nighttime lows above freezing.  Our typical syrup season is in April.  We also continue to be abnormally dry.  El Nino years tend toward warm, dry springs here, so none of this comes as a shock, but it is interesting to observe.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 06, 2015, 06:55:34 PM
Record-smashing cold in Maine.  The latest: this morning, nearly half of the state woke up to sub-zero [°F !] temperatures.
Quote
Maine has endured a brutally cold and long winter. February was the coldest month on record for Bangor, which had an average temperature of 6.1 degrees [F]. What was most impressive about the record was by how much it surpassed the old. Bangor’s average temperature in February was 5.2 degrees lower than the previous record-cold February (1993), and 2.3 degrees lower than the previous all-time record cold month, January 2014. Typically, all-time monthly records are broken by mere fractions of degrees.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/06/still-in-winters-grip-sub-zero-cold-sets-all-time-april-record-low-in-maine/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/04/06/still-in-winters-grip-sub-zero-cold-sets-all-time-april-record-low-in-maine/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 07, 2015, 02:09:27 AM
Major Severe Weather Outbreak Possible This Week in U.S. Midsection.
Quote
The atmospheric ingredients are aligning for what could be intense severe weather this week, especially on Wednesday and Thursday. A powerful upper-level low is expected to bring the storminess to the Plains, Midwest, and South as it slowly makes its way eastward. The low is now pushing into California, where its power is being put to good use: providing much-needed snow in the Sierras and rain at lower elevations.
...
The system may also bring additional rain to flood-hammered parts of Kentucky. According to the Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen, Louisville, KY, saw its fourth-wettest calendar day on record last Friday, April 3, with 5.64” at Standiford Field (the city’s official reporting site) and 8.03” at the Louisville NWS office. The city has received more than a foot of rain and melted snow since March 1. More than 100 water rescues were carried out in the Louisville area, and Kentucky governor Steve Beshear declared a state of emergency on Saturday.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2952 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2952)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2015, 06:55:25 PM
Incredible photos from flood-ravaged northern Chile.
Quote
According to Reuters, Chile's President Michelle Bachelet says it will cost at least $1.5 billion to repair the damages caused by the flooding and mudslides that left a toll of over two dozen people dead and nearly another 140 missing.
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/04/devastating-floods-hit-northern-chile/390024/ (http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/04/devastating-floods-hit-northern-chile/390024/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on April 10, 2015, 09:57:41 AM
See,the video :
http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/video/2015/04/09/des-nuages-aux-allures-de-gigantesques-vagues-recouvrent-la-caroline-du-sud_4613133_3244.html (http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/video/2015/04/09/des-nuages-aux-allures-de-gigantesques-vagues-recouvrent-la-caroline-du-sud_4613133_3244.html)
It says there was some clouds named stratocumulus between Georgia and south carolina.
Nothing worrying, just anectodotal (certainly)

Some tornaoes in Illinois
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/09/tornado-northern-illinois_n_7037746.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/04/09/tornado-northern-illinois_n_7037746.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 14, 2015, 08:51:59 PM
Deadly wildfires sweep across Siberia, scorching entire towns.
A dry winter combined with a changing climate that has made Russia increasingly susceptible to large wildfires may be driving up the fire danger this year.
http://mashable.com/2015/04/14/deadly-siberian-wildfires/ (http://mashable.com/2015/04/14/deadly-siberian-wildfires/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on April 17, 2015, 03:21:04 PM
Things are looking increasingly bad around Chita and the Trans Baikal Region according to the Siberian Times. Lots of suffering and loss of life with one fire encompassing over 100,000 hectares. The problems seem to be crossing the border into China. Harrowing pictures:
http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0187-fire-rages-on-as-death-toll-from-two-blazes-reaches-33/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0187-fire-rages-on-as-death-toll-from-two-blazes-reaches-33/)



 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on April 21, 2015, 01:02:19 PM
Ongoing severe weather around Sydney, NSW east coast...
http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/04/21/05/54/nsw-coast-lashed-by-wild-storms (http://www.9news.com.au/national/2015/04/21/05/54/nsw-coast-lashed-by-wild-storms)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 01, 2015, 09:06:51 PM
April Heat Records Fall as Temperatures Soar in Japan, China, Korea
http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/japan-record-april-heat-wave-china (http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/japan-record-april-heat-wave-china)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on May 02, 2015, 01:01:53 AM
April Heat Records Fall as Temperatures Soar in Japan, China, Korea
http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/japan-record-april-heat-wave-china (http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/japan-record-april-heat-wave-china)

and so it begins.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on May 03, 2015, 05:28:58 PM
The extreme heat in Asia this week is discussed in this excellent presentation by Peter Sinclair from Climate Crocks.  This video is at the tail end of a presentation he made about the presentation of climate facts in an environment of disinformation.

It is absolutely the best summary of the extreme weather and climate induced impacts during 2012 and 2013 and what we face into the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-nWsr3ZFdw&t=39m14s (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-nWsr3ZFdw&t=39m14s)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on May 06, 2015, 12:50:25 PM
Don't know if it is that weird...
Tornado as violent storms batter northern Germany
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32601555 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32601555)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 06, 2015, 02:59:26 PM
http://www.stripes.com/military-life/tornadoes-not-a-uniquely-american-phenomenon-europe-gets-its-share-too-1.11130 (http://www.stripes.com/military-life/tornadoes-not-a-uniquely-american-phenomenon-europe-gets-its-share-too-1.11130)

According to this we can expect an F3 in Germany every 40 to 50 years........ now if we see another this year of a similar strength then maybe we'd wonder if things are changing?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 09, 2015, 03:53:48 PM
Somewhat weird weather coming up for the coast of the Carolinas:

http://econnexus.org/early-start-to-2015-atlantic-hurricane-season/ (http://econnexus.org/early-start-to-2015-atlantic-hurricane-season/)

Quote
Ana formed unusually early, and is in fact the earliest named Atlantic tropical cyclone since another Ana in 2003. By this morning she had acquired the characteristics of a fully fledged tropical storm.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 09, 2015, 08:46:33 PM
 A map of Earth showing its average cloudiness.
Quote
That gorgeous picture was made using data from the Aqua satellite, which observes the Earth to measure its water cycle. That includes keeping an eye on air moisture, precipitation, ice (both on land and sea), snow and, obviously, clouds.

This image was made by taking over a decade’s worth of observations — from July 2002 to April 2015 — and getting the average value for the cloud cover at each location on the planet. These were then translated into colors: dark blue for no cloud cover, white for cloudy all the time, and shades of blue in between.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/05/09/cloudy_earth_map_of_cloud_coverage.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2015/05/09/cloudy_earth_map_of_cloud_coverage.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2015, 01:57:25 PM
Wild weather across the U.S. this weekend:

Tropical Storm ANA makes landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC as the second earliest land falling tropical storm on record   http://t.co/kqHVIfEsnt (http://t.co/kqHVIfEsnt)

Multi-day tornado outbreak in the plains.
http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/tornado-severe-hail-storm-damage-updates-may-8 (http://www.weather.com/storms/tornado/news/tornado-severe-hail-storm-damage-updates-may-8)

And a winter storm (and more) in the mountain West.
Quote
Wet, wild weather swept through widespread parts of Colorado on Saturday, with hail pounding Pueblo and Manitou Springs as watches and warnings were posted for tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, floods, flash floods and winter weather.

At one point, Elbert County and Colorado Springs were under five different sorts of warnings or advisories. While a tornado was on the ground south of Ellicott, snow was falling less than 50 miles away on U.S. 24.
...
At about 1:30 p.m. Saturday, U.S. 24 was closed in both directions in Manitou Springs around the Cascade/Cave of the Winds interchange, as stalled vehicles caused safety concerns and cars slid on 3 inches of fallen hail.

For the third straight day, the city of Colorado Springs called out snowplows to clear deep hail from roads.
http://www.denverpost.com/weathernews/ci_28083635/weather-service-issues-new-flash-flood-warnings-across (http://www.denverpost.com/weathernews/ci_28083635/weather-service-issues-new-flash-flood-warnings-across)

Current image from Weather Underground's "Storm" app:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 10, 2015, 02:47:49 PM
Tropical Storm ANA makes landfall near Myrtle Beach, SC as the second earliest land falling tropical storm on record

Hmmm? I know I have a thing about Cuba, but I've been doing my own due diligence.....

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/597378279323136000
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on May 10, 2015, 06:20:04 PM
You are forgetting that only storms affecting the USA count.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 10, 2015, 06:59:25 PM
Meanwhile as Myrtle Beach is battered by 45 mph winds.....

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/32681344 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/32681344)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2015, 01:59:28 AM
From the Weather Channel: specifying the criteria.  ;)
@StuOstro: Checked official data, & can't find any trop/subt landfalls in hist. rec. on Atlantic coast of U.S. as early as #Ana http://t.co/XWWY4G3S2L (http://t.co/XWWY4G3S2L)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 12, 2015, 02:15:21 PM
Now this really is weird weather!

Quote
It has been the sunniest April on record for the UK

http://youtu.be/5uxlTnxuiYU (http://youtu.be/5uxlTnxuiYU)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 13, 2015, 02:04:04 PM
More weird science from the Met Office:

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/13/possible-record-heat-in-spain-while-heavy-rain-and-snow-affect-the-alps/ (http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/13/possible-record-heat-in-spain-while-heavy-rain-and-snow-affect-the-alps/)

Quote
Possible record heat in Spain, while heavy rain and snow affect the Alps.

The hottest conditions will be across the Andalucía region of southern Spain. If temperatures reach or exceed 40C in Seville today this will be a new May record.

Meanwhile, southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and northern Italy are at risk of heavy rainfall over the coming days, with heavy snow possible on Friday across the Alps.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Stephen on May 14, 2015, 06:46:51 AM
More weird science from the Met Office:

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/13/possible-record-heat-in-spain-while-heavy-rain-and-snow-affect-the-alps/ (http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/13/possible-record-heat-in-spain-while-heavy-rain-and-snow-affect-the-alps/)

Quote
Possible record heat in Spain, while heavy rain and snow affect the Alps.

The hottest conditions will be across the Andalucía region of southern Spain. If temperatures reach or exceed 40C in Seville today this will be a new May record.

Meanwhile, southern Germany, Switzerland, Austria, and northern Italy are at risk of heavy rainfall over the coming days, with heavy snow possible on Friday across the Alps.

Lucky that the Giro D'Italia is heading south for the next week or so.  It won't get back up north until stage 14, about 10 days away. 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 14, 2015, 06:05:39 PM
As (slightly hesitantly!) predicted:

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/14/record-may-temperatures-for-spain/ (http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/05/14/record-may-temperatures-for-spain/)

Quote
A new record maximum temperature for Spain was set yesterday, with many local records also broken, and the heat continues today in the southeast.

The new record of 42.6C was recorded at Lanzarote Airport in the Canary Islands, beating the previous May record for Spain by a relatively large 2.5 degrees. It also beats the Lanzarote station’s own previous highest May temperature by a whopping 6 degrees.

The previous May record in Spain was 40.1C at Cordoba on the mainland, and Cordoba itself recorded a new May station record on Wednesday with 41.2C.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on May 15, 2015, 02:28:58 PM
Don"t know if it is linked to climate change, certainly not...
A Strange Underwater Landslide Causes Serious Damage In Norway
http://io9.com/a-strange-underwater-landslide-causes-serious-damage-in-1703858398 (http://io9.com/a-strange-underwater-landslide-causes-serious-damage-in-1703858398)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on May 15, 2015, 06:10:58 PM
Nothing to do with weather but this earthflow is certainly weird:-

http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/04/20/bolshaya-talda-1/ (http://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2015/04/20/bolshaya-talda-1/)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 18, 2015, 07:39:16 PM
Super Typhoon Dolphin Becomes Earth's 5th Category 5 Storm of 2015

Quote
May 16 is exceptionally early to be getting our third Category 5 storm of the year in the Northwest Pacific. The global record for Category 5 storms is held by the El Niño year of 1997, which had twelve Category 5 storms--ten of them in the Northwest Pacific. The third Cat 5 of 1997 in the Northwest Pacific occurred on July 22, so we are more than two months ahead of that year's record pace. Dolphin is also the earliest-appearing 7th named storm of the Northwest Pacific's typhoon season; the previous record was on May 19, 1971. Super Typhoon Dolphin is already Earth's fifth Category Five storm this year, which is an unusually large number of these high-end tropical cyclones for so early in the year.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2992 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2992)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 23, 2015, 12:11:31 AM
Record heat roasts parts of Alaska, where it’s warmer than Washington, D.C.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/22/record-heat-roasts-parts-of-alaska-where-its-warmer-than-washington-d-c/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/22/record-heat-roasts-parts-of-alaska-where-its-warmer-than-washington-d-c/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2015, 04:25:43 PM
Historic and catastrophic flooding in Texas and Oklahoma.
Quote
This is a historic flood," Ritchey told NBC News, adding that the San Marcos River was measured at a record 39-feet high. "The record before was 34 feet, now it is over 39 feet. That wall of water will be coming into our county."

Meanwhile, the Blanco River in Texas's Hays County rose more than 33 feet in just three hours — breaking an all-time record crest dating back to 1929 by nearly six feet, according to The Weather Channel. It said local authorities reported residents trapped on rooftops by the rising floodwaters.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/flooding-hits-oklahoma-texas-more-bad-weather-way-n363871 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/flooding-hits-oklahoma-texas-more-bad-weather-way-n363871)
Watches/warnings map from NWS:  http://www.weather.gov (http://www.weather.gov)
Radar/fronts image from WeatherUnderground's Storm app.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on May 25, 2015, 01:33:14 PM
Meanwhile down-under winter arrived today:
Pressure = 935hPa!
http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/largest-low-earth-affecting-new-zealand-today (http://www.weatherwatch.co.nz/content/largest-low-earth-affecting-new-zealand-today)

http://earth.nullschool.net/ (http://earth.nullschool.net/)

Fortunately autumn returns in a day or 2 with the next high pressure system coming in from the NW.....
Clare
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JayW on May 25, 2015, 02:42:35 PM
Not exactly weather, but certainly weird

Quote
"All I can say is wow, just freakin wow!" says Lisa-Ann Gershwin from Australian Marine Stinger Advisory Services in Launceston, Australia.

This river in Southern Tasmania seemed to come alive this week as a bloom of Noctiluca scintillans – a type of bioluminescent plankton, also known as "sea sparkle" – washed into the region.

When it's disturbed, the organism produces light in its cytoplasm, the gel-like substance inside its single cell.

As news of the bloom spread, hundreds of people came to see the spectacle, says Gershwin. "People turned out in droves, rolled up their pant legs and danced, ran, splashed, stomped, tiptoed, you name it, people played! It was incredible!"

But there is a dark side to this impromptu festival of light. "The displays are a sign of climate change," says Anthony Richardson from the CSIRO, Australia's national science agency in Brisbane.

Until 1994, Noctiluca had not been seen in Tasmania. But global warming has been strengthening the East Australian current, which pushes warm water south towards Tasmania. "As the Southern Ocean warms, it will be warm enough for Noctiluca to survive," says Richardson.

What's more, these particular plankton have more direct impacts too. "Noctiluca is a voracious feeder on diatoms, which is the food for krill in the Southern Ocean," says Gustaaf Hallegraeff from the University of Tasmania in Hobart. Dense blooms like this can therefore starve other organisms, he says. They can also kill fish through oxygen depletion and gill irritation.

"As wondrous and entertaining as Noctiluca is, it is also a species infamous for causing fish kills," says Gerhswin. But what the outcome will be from this particular bloom remains an unresolved question, adds Hallegraeff. "Blooms can disappear within days, leaving essentially no trace."
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27565-these-sparkly-sea-organisms-are-an-eerie-omen-of-climate-change.html#.VWMX127D_bV (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27565-these-sparkly-sea-organisms-are-an-eerie-omen-of-climate-change.html#.VWMX127D_bV)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 26, 2015, 02:33:54 AM
The "Wet Drought" in the northwestern U.S.:  temps are too warm to support the usual snowpack reserves.
Quote
Wet Drought

The drought in California is one of both heat and dryness, as a persistent ridge of high pressure that parked itself over the western U.S. over the past two winters blocked much-needed storms and drove up temperatures to spring and summer levels.

Oregon and Washington, on the other hand, are stuck in a seemingly oxymoronic wet drought. The storms that were prevented from hitting California did provide rains to the Pacific Northwest, with winter precipitation in Oregon only about 30 percent below average, not even in the bottom 10 years historically, said Philip Mote, director of the Oregon Climate Service.

But the sky-high temperatures that marked the warmest winter on record for Washington and the second warmest for Oregon meant that much of the precipitation fell as rain, and not snow. Like California, parts of both these states depend on melting snowfall to fill their reservoirs, leaving them with potential shortages this year. Elevated temperatures also meant that what snow there was melted much earlier than normal.

Three-fourths of snow survey sites in Oregon had record-low snow measurements as of April 1, and fewer than half of them had any snow on the ground, according to a report by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The snowpack across much of the Cascades Range in Washington was less than 25 percent, while the Olympic Mountains checked in at only 3 percent on April 1, an “unbelievably low”  amount, Karin Bumbaco, assistant state climatologist in Washington, said.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/northwest-wet-drought-climate-future-18910 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/northwest-wet-drought-climate-future-18910)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 26, 2015, 11:56:04 PM
No Major U.S. Hurricane Landfalls in Nine Years: Luck?
http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20150513/ (http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20150513/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2015, 12:31:56 AM
Texas Was In a Horrible Drought Last Year. Now It’s Flooded. What Gives?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2015, 12:35:10 AM
@EricHolthaus: The most Texas photo of the Texas floods, via @dianesweet:
http://t.co/wmwEnUhiLN (http://t.co/wmwEnUhiLN) http://t.co/cvAGS4sj4L (http://t.co/cvAGS4sj4L)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2015, 03:13:28 AM
Alaska recorded its hottest temperature so early in the season Memorial Day weekend
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/26/alaska-recorded-its-hottest-temperature-so-early-in-the-season-over-memorial-day-weekend/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/05/26/alaska-recorded-its-hottest-temperature-so-early-in-the-season-over-memorial-day-weekend/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ritter on May 27, 2015, 07:35:17 PM
Texas Was In a Horrible Drought Last Year. Now It’s Flooded. What Gives?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/05/26/houston_texas_flooding_how_el_nino_and_climate_change_contributed_to_the.html)
Drought followed by deluge. We were warned.  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 30, 2015, 01:21:55 PM
This has been a month of extreme weather around the world -- and a stuck jet stream may be to blame.
Quote
WASHINGTON (AP) — Even for a world getting used to wild weather, May seems stuck on strange.

Torrential downpours in Texas that have whiplashed the region from drought to flooding. A heat wave that has killed more than 1,800 people in India. Record 91-degree readings in Alaska, of all places. A pair of top-of-the-scale typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. And a drought taking hold in the East.
...
As bad as the Texas flooding has been, the heat wave in India has been far worse — in fact, the world's fifth-deadliest since 1900, with reports of the 100-degree-plus heat even buckling roads. And it's a consequence of the stuck jet stream, according to Francis and Weather Underground meteorology director Jeff Masters.
...
A stuck jet stream, with a bit of a split, explains the extremes in Texas, India, Alaska and the U.S. East, but not the typhoons, Francis says.

Other possible factors contributing to May's wild weather: the periodic warming of the central Pacific known as El Nino, climate change and natural variability, scientists say.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/20b4c60765004e77a2d8e48eebb9862f/has-been-month-extreme-weather-around-world (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/20b4c60765004e77a2d8e48eebb9862f/has-been-month-extreme-weather-around-world)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 31, 2015, 04:21:57 PM
Texas has set an all time record for rain in the month of May. So how much rain did they actually get?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2015, 04:22:36 PM
Quote
@billmckibben: Indian heatwave toll passes 2200 http://t.co/UILUfVk0gn (http://t.co/UILUfVk0gn)
TX rain this month enough to cover whole state 8" deep http://t.co/NtmginCjrh (http://t.co/NtmginCjrh)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 31, 2015, 06:26:35 PM
That last measure on the above post is worth pondering. Enough rain fell in Texas during the month of May to provide adequate clean drinking water for the entire planet for the next 30 years!!!!!!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: oren on May 31, 2015, 10:44:49 PM
That last measure on the above post is worth pondering. Enough rain fell in Texas during the month of May to provide adequate clean drinking water for the entire planet for the next 30 years!!!!!!

I admit this gave me pause for a moment. But as I understand it, the problem of drinking water is not lack of the resource, but the energy required to get it were it needs to be (or to desalinate it from seawater). I am sure the Amazon river has more water than what's missing in Sao Paolo.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2015, 11:23:41 PM
Colorado is a state that tends not to mention "climate change."  But this is about as close as one can get without doing so.

Frequency of natural disasters in Pikes Peak region means new normal for communities
http://gazette.com/frequency-of-natural-disasters-in-pikes-peak-region-means-new-normal-for-communities/article/1552832 (http://gazette.com/frequency-of-natural-disasters-in-pikes-peak-region-means-new-normal-for-communities/article/1552832)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2015, 04:15:37 AM
Mounds of hail accumulating in a storm today.  Umbrella not much help. :o

Hail Storm in Gatlinburg, TN June 2nd 2015
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=tk7JSiFR9lU&feature=youtu.be
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 03, 2015, 02:35:48 PM
India's minister of earth sciences: "It is climate change."

India’s Heat Wave Now The 5th Deadliest In World History
Quote
Let us not fool ourselves that there is no connection between the unusual number of deaths from the ongoing heat wave and the certainty of another failed monsoon,” Harsh Vardhan said, according to Reuters. “It’s not just an unusually hot summer, it is climate change.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/02/3665123/india-heat-wave-5th-deadliest/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/02/3665123/india-heat-wave-5th-deadliest/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2015, 09:21:18 PM
May was the wettest month for U.S. in 121 years of record-keeping
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/08/may-was-the-wettest-month-for-u-s-in-121-years-of-record-keeping/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/08/may-was-the-wettest-month-for-u-s-in-121-years-of-record-keeping/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 08, 2015, 09:34:38 PM
India's 2nd Deadliest Heat Wave in History Ends as the Monsoon Arrives
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3011# (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3011#)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2015, 05:19:14 PM
You're About to See an Incredibly Rare Cloud, and It's Proof the Climate Is Changing
Quote
In a few weeks, you may get to see evidence the atmosphere is changing -- if you’re lucky.
That’s when noctilucent clouds, the world’s highest, peak in number and show up in the night sky just after sunset as electric-blue swirls in the mesosphere, the coldest place on the planet.
Usually visible only in the polar regions, the clouds now sometimes appear as far south as 40 degrees latitude in the Northern Hemisphere, according to Cora Randall, a professor at the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics in Boulder. That’s because the mesosphere, which nears the edge of space, is changing, possibly “due to a change in climate,” he said. “We believe that these clouds are a really sensitive indicator.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/at-space-s-edge-swirls-of-blue-show-atmosphere-changing (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-09/at-space-s-edge-swirls-of-blue-show-atmosphere-changing)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on June 09, 2015, 09:41:27 PM
The astronauts on the ISS have been tweeting photos of the noctolucent clouds.

See https://twitter.com/AstroTerry and https://twitter.com/StationCDRKelly  on June 8 and https://twitter.com/AstroSamantha on June 7


Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on June 14, 2015, 12:35:03 PM
 Tigers, lions, bears, wolves and other animals escape from a zoo in Tibisi, Georgia, after flooding:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33125879 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-33125879)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2015, 07:32:00 PM
Ground that is warm and water-logged (say, after flooding) can re-energize storms like moving over a warm ocean.

Brown Oceans Fuel Tropical Systems Over Land
Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari explains why brown oceans are fueling tropical systems over land.
http://video.statesman.com/Brown-Oceans-Fuel-Tropical-Systems-Over-Land-29238928 (http://video.statesman.com/Brown-Oceans-Fuel-Tropical-Systems-Over-Land-29238928)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2015, 09:24:40 PM
Colorado Springs:  Record-busting rainfall will go away, but effects linger.
Quote
After drowning a century-old Colorado Springs record Monday, the never-ending parade of storm clouds has given the waterlogged Pikes Peak region more precipitation in the past five months than it usually gets in a year.
...
The water table is so high in Colorado Springs that groundwater has turned into new springs, popping up underneath roads, Farkas said.
...
Already this year, Colorado Springs has exceeded its annual average for precipitation. The airport recorded 17.31 inches of water by Tuesday, more than an inch above the city's annual average, which is roughly 16 inches of precipitation, according to Brian Bledsoe, chief meteorologist for Gazette news partner KKTV. More could come.

The ground is so full of moisture in the Pikes Peak region that heat coming through the area is essentially recycling rainstorms day after day, according to Bledsoe.
http://gazette.com/be-patient-record-busting-rainfall-will-go-away-but-effects-linger/article/1553849 (http://gazette.com/be-patient-record-busting-rainfall-will-go-away-but-effects-linger/article/1553849)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 20, 2015, 07:24:41 PM
Brutal Heat Wave Gripping Southeast Will Last Another Week, I'm So Sorry
http://thevane.gawker.com/brutal-heat-wave-gripping-southeast-will-last-another-w-1712365576 (http://thevane.gawker.com/brutal-heat-wave-gripping-southeast-will-last-another-w-1712365576)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on June 22, 2015, 05:07:15 PM
https://www.skepticalscience.com/Trenberth-links-sandy-extreme-weather-to-climate-change.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/Trenberth-links-sandy-extreme-weather-to-climate-change.html)

   
New study links global warming to Hurricane Sandy and other extreme weather events
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2015, 08:41:24 PM
Pakistan Heat Wave Kills Hundreds: Victims 'Dying On the Streets'
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-heat-wave-kills-hundreds-victims-dying-streets-n380201 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistan-heat-wave-kills-hundreds-victims-dying-streets-n380201)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 24, 2015, 02:30:29 PM
Karachi Heat Wave: Some Muslims Can Eat During Ramadan, Cleric Says
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistani-muslims-told-they-can-eat-during-ramadan-during-heatwave-n380771 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/pakistani-muslims-told-they-can-eat-during-ramadan-during-heatwave-n380771)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 24, 2015, 10:49:06 PM
Meanwhile, Chicago is under a flash flood watch as the pattern of heavy rains that has been in place over the upper Midwest for the past several weeks continues. The firmly entrenched high pressure system over the Southeastern US is responsible.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 28, 2015, 07:21:25 PM
Western [U.S.] Heat Wave Enters History Books; At Least Six June Records Already Broken; All-Time Records Threatened (FORECAST)
Quote
A torrid heat wave has shifted into high gear and has already broken at least seven June record highs in the Northwest. Additional June or even all-time high-temperature records will be in jeopardy across parts of the Great Basin and Northwest for the rest of the month. Furthermore, the extreme heat is likely to last well into early July and may end up breaking records for longevity as well.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/record-west-heat-wave-northwest-great-basin-latejun2015 (http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/record-west-heat-wave-northwest-great-basin-latejun2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 29, 2015, 01:37:10 AM
The U.S. Got More Rain This May Than Any Other Month On Record
Quote
NOAA also noted another record in its report Monday: Alaska had the hottest May statewide average temperature last month in 91 years of record-keeping. The temperature — 44.9°F — was 7.1°F above average. “The warmth in Alaska was widespread with several cities were record warm, including Barrow and Juneau,” NOAA noted.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/08/3667277/may-wettest-month-on-record/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/08/3667277/may-wettest-month-on-record/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 30, 2015, 04:28:59 PM
Long-Lasting Heat Wave Bound for Europe; June Records Smashed in Spain
http://www.wunderground.com/news/europe-heat-wave-record-highs-june-july-2015 (http://www.wunderground.com/news/europe-heat-wave-record-highs-june-july-2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Rick Aster on July 01, 2015, 06:11:18 PM
Very prominently, the hottest day ever recorded at Wimbledon. From Twitter:

Quote
Met Office ‏@metoffice 1 hour ago https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/616258545626009600 (https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/616258545626009600)

#Wimbledon has had its hottest day ever. Kew Gardens (nearest observation site) has recorded a temperature of 35.7 °C
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 02, 2015, 02:23:36 AM
The European heat wave has just started and is already breaking records.  France is making daily phone calls to hundreds of thousands of especially vulnerable people.
Quote
In London, the Guardian was forced to briefly pause its heat wave live blog to switch to backup servers “because our main ones have overheated.” Nationwide, the speed of British trains was reduced to prevent the rails from buckling under the heat.
French Toast: Temperatures Surge as Historic Heat Wave Hits Western Europe
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/07/01/europe_heat_wave_paris_france_and_london_england_approach_all_time_high.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JayW on July 02, 2015, 11:24:01 AM
Admittedly I'm not real familiar with this, but seems like it's worth posting here, and something to be concerned about.

Snippet
Quote
June 25, 2015
UW researcher helping pinpoint massive harmful algal bloom

Hannah Hickey and Michelle Ma
News and Information

The bloom that began earlier this year and shut down several shellfish fisheries along the West Coast has grown into the largest and most severe in at least a decade.

UW research analyst Anthony Odell left June 15 from Newport, Oregon, aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s research vessel Bell M. Shimada. He is part of a NOAA-led team of harmful algae experts who are surveying the extent of the patch and searching for “hot spots” — swirling eddies where previous research from the UW and NOAA shows the algae can grow and become toxic to marine animals and humans.

“The current bloom of Pseudo-nitzschia spp., the diatom responsible for domoic acid and amnesic shellfish poisoning, appears to be the biggest spatially we have ever observed,” Odell said. “It has also lasted for an incredibly long time — months, instead of the usual week or two.”

Odell is the coastal sampling coordinator at the UW’s Olympic Natural Resources Center in Forks, Washington, part of the UW College of the Environment. From his base in Hoquiam, Odell samples shellfish, phytoplankton and water quality, and responds to toxic algae bloom events along Washington’s outer coast.

Now he is doing toxin sampling on the three-week first leg of the NOAA voyage, from San Diego to San Francisco. Three more legs will continue through mid-September, surveying up to the north end of Vancouver Island.
http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/06/25/uw-researcher-helping-pinpoint-massive-harmful-algal-bloom/ (http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/06/25/uw-researcher-helping-pinpoint-massive-harmful-algal-bloom/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2015, 03:05:19 AM
United Nations Issues First-Ever Guidelines on How to Survive a Heat Wave
http://www.newsweek.com/united-nations-issues-first-ever-guidelines-how-survive-heatwave-349733 (http://www.newsweek.com/united-nations-issues-first-ever-guidelines-how-survive-heatwave-349733)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 05, 2015, 04:14:09 AM
[State of] Washington's wildfire season gets off to an early, unprecedented start
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-washington-wildfires-20150704-story.html#page=1 (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-washington-wildfires-20150704-story.html#page=1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2015, 01:42:00 AM
Quote
@EricBlake12: Triple typhoons in the WPac-1st time since Oct 24 1994 HT @philklotzbach #chanhom #linfa #nangka #elnino #climate http://t.co/cWBxNVxzCV (http://t.co/cWBxNVxzCV)
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/618884919423406080
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jai mitchell on July 09, 2015, 06:36:24 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ficons.wxug.com%2Fdata%2Fimages%2Fsst_basin%2Fgl_sst_mm.gif&hash=0d21026b287b252422e0d73c06d84780)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2015, 06:53:20 PM
Up to Five Tropical Cyclones At Once Possible in the Pacific Ocean: How Rare Is That?
http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/five-tropical-cyclones-pacific-july2015 (http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/five-tropical-cyclones-pacific-july2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on July 14, 2015, 03:07:20 PM
I posted this elsewhere on the ASIF...but will cross post here as well.  This regards an "explosion" on a beach in the northeast US.  Not sure if anyone else thought that it MIGHT have been a SMALL SCALE "explosion" of methane gas that caused the explosion.

I'm NOT jumping to any conclusions....just a thought that briefly went through my miniscule brain.  Here is the article...

https://gma.yahoo.com/rhode-island-beach-blast-last-thing-victim-remembers-135908995--abc-news-topstories.html#
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: solartim27 on July 14, 2015, 04:42:51 PM
I posted this elsewhere on the ASIF...but will cross post here as well.  This regards an "explosion" on a beach in the northeast US.  Not sure if anyone else thought that it MIGHT have been a SMALL SCALE "explosion" of methane gas that caused the explosion.

If so, then it would be from a leaking pipeline.  Seeing as it was just after July 4th, I would think it was someone's idea of a big firework that didn't quite work out.  Another theory would be an old military munition that somehow got into the area.  Lastly, a convoluted murder plot.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 14, 2015, 08:45:34 PM
Quote
@billmckibben: Hey! 2015 on record pace for most tropical storms to date Atlantic and Pacific! Go 2015! http://t.co/ePktpnvDKA (http://t.co/ePktpnvDKA) http://t.co/8ViQCMJETy (http://t.co/8ViQCMJETy)
Quote
...this is the first year on record with so many named systems to date for the Atlantic, Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific combined: a total of 11 as of Monday, July 13, with the previous record of 10 occuring in 2012.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3042 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3042)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jdallen on July 15, 2015, 08:13:39 AM
Quote
@billmckibben: Hey! 2015 on record pace for most tropical storms to date Atlantic and Pacific! Go 2015! http://t.co/ePktpnvDKA (http://t.co/ePktpnvDKA) http://t.co/8ViQCMJETy (http://t.co/8ViQCMJETy)
Quote
...this is the first year on record with so many named systems to date for the Atlantic, Central Pacific and Eastern Pacific combined: a total of 11 as of Monday, July 13, with the previous record of 10 occuring in 2012.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3042 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3042)

Looking at this and wondering about (1) the origins of GAC2012 and what portents are offered by current conditions in that regard.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 17, 2015, 05:11:59 AM
Welcome to climate change.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-longlived-squall-lines-to/50284928 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/more-longlived-squall-lines-to/50284928)

This stationary high has been planted over the Southeastern U.S. for most of the summer. It brought the huge floods to Texas and now it has been raining in Chicago for the better part of the month.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on July 18, 2015, 09:31:37 AM
Hawaii Just Got Hit By A July Snow Storm (Seriously)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hawaii-summer-snow-storm_55a973dde4b065dfe89e737f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hawaii-summer-snow-storm_55a973dde4b065dfe89e737f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green&section=green)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on July 18, 2015, 01:54:14 PM
The Hawaii snow will make a GREAT story for Joe Bastardi.  Maybe he can whip up some more lies....and maybe a little phoshopping.  He's pretty good at that.

No doubt....he will leave off this little tidbit from the article:

"In the summer, average high temperatures at the summit are around 40 degrees, and average lows are around 25 degrees."

Last time I checked....in my physical world....it snows when it is 35 degrees....10 degrees warmer than the average summer low.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: oren on July 18, 2015, 03:18:32 PM
...
"In the summer, average high temperatures at the summit are around 40 degrees, and average lows are around 25 degrees."

Last time I checked....in my physical world....it snows when it is 35 degrees....10 degrees warmer than the average summer low.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Yeah I was reading that article and thinking wtf?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 18, 2015, 05:57:06 PM
I've been in falling snow in the northern hemisphere every month of the year.  (May: several 0-6" snows in northern N.Mex. @ 7,000 '; June: 12" & 18" in SW Colorado mountains @ 10,500'; July: European Alps; August: Circle City, Alaska; September: NM again)  It would have been cool to be a-top Mauna Kea, though!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 18, 2015, 06:05:01 PM
I've been to the top of Mauna Loa in July for a meteor shower watching event. Nearly froze to death even with the warmest clothing and wind gear we brought. Isn't physics (and high altitude) amazing :P
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on July 18, 2015, 06:22:32 PM
But did you enjoy the metior shower?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on July 18, 2015, 09:33:54 PM
Yes and also the views through telescopes set up by local astronomy club folks.  They had them setup to see things like the m62 globular cluster - a first for me.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: OldLeatherneck on July 22, 2015, 01:29:34 AM
What the Weekend Rains Did to Southern California—and What a Real Hurricane Could Do

By: By: Bob Henson , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015 - Wunderground

Full Post: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3050 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3050)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1269.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fjj597%2FOldLeatherNeck%2FAP_930878594538_zpsl8swebde.jpg&hash=26f4b9a89046dec837a9e9910fdcafdb)Figure 1. Emergency crews respond after a pickup truck crashed into the collapse of an elevated section of Interstate 10 on Sunday, July 19, 2015, in Desert Center, Calif. The bridge, which carries the eastbound interstate about 15 feet above a normally dry wash, snapped and ended up in the flooding water below, the California Highway Patrol said, blocking all traffic headed toward Arizona. Image credit: Chief Geoff Pemberton/CAL FIRE/Riverside County Fire, via AP.

This is weird!

If some one had asked me a few weeks ago for places in Southern California that needed infrastructure improvements in preparation for threats of Climate Change, it would not have been a remote bridge on Interstate-10 in the barren desert near the Arizona border.  I've driven across that bridge no less than 20 times in my life.  Fortunately no lives were lost, however, the long range impact will be felt for a long while.  That stretch of highway is a vital  transportation link between Phoenix and Los Angeles.  I've driven that stretch in temperatures approaching 120o(F), without the benefit of air conditioning.  I'd hate to think of doing on the back road detours.

One of the most amazing factoids of bob Henson's post is the two-day rainfall in San Diego that was a remnant of TS Dolores:

Quote
San Diego’s Lindbergh Field measured a whopping 1.69” on Saturday and Sunday—more rain than in any other July in San Diego records that go back to 1850 (the runner-up was 1.29” in July 1865). Midsummer is typically bone-dry in San Diego, with June through August racking up a combined average of just 0.14”. Amazingly, the past weekend produced more rain in San Diego than the previous 100 Julys combined (1915 – 2014).
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: anotheramethyst on July 22, 2015, 10:33:44 AM
What the Weekend Rains Did to Southern California—and What a Real Hurricane Could Do

By: By: Bob Henson , 3:07 PM GMT on July 21, 2015 - Wunderground

Full Post: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3050 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3050)

...

Quote
San Diego’s Lindbergh Field measured a whopping 1.69” on Saturday and Sunday—more rain than in any other July in San Diego records that go back to 1850 (the runner-up was 1.29” in July 1865). Midsummer is typically bone-dry in San Diego, with June through August racking up a combined average of just 0.14”. Amazingly, the past weekend produced more rain in San Diego than the previous 100 Julys combined (1915 – 2014).

sorry, i'm confused, all that happened because of an inch of rain?  or is that a foot of rain?  hurricànes and tropical storms are capable of producing a foot of rain in a day, so from context i feel like it should be a foot, but i'm used to the convention where ' indicates a foot and " indicates an inch.... but i know thats a rather unofficial convention and people here post from all over the world so i could be wrong.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: OldLeatherneck on July 22, 2015, 02:30:32 PM



sorry, i'm confused, all that happened because of an inch of rain?  or is that a foot of rain?  hurricànes and tropical storms are capable of producing a foot of rain in a day, so from context i feel like it should be a foot, but i'm used to the convention where ' indicates a foot and " indicates an inch.... but i know thats a rather unofficial convention and people here post from all over the world so i could be wrong.


Sorry for the confusions.  There are two parts to this story.

The area of the eastern desert where the bridge was washed away received over 7" (inches) in a very short period of time.  This was enough to destroy the bridge.

In Sand Diego, they only received 1.69" (inches).  However, that was enough to set the dramatic record.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 22, 2015, 02:43:48 PM
anotheramethyst,
You are correct: ' = foot,  " = inch, here.  Southern California is essentially a desert.  In a rare, heavy rain, water runs off the hard-packed earth, accumulates in what are normally "dry gulches" and become destructive torrents and mud slides.

Videos: 
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TDtBby7lJX0
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CGru7-4qPnQ
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2015, 04:39:35 AM
14 Dead, More Than 6,000 Hospitalized In Japan Heat Wave
Quote
The Japan Meteorological Agency said three locations in northern Japan with weather data as far back as 1976 set all-time record highs Wednesday. Two were in Iwate Prefecture and one in Yamagata Prefecture, and all three reported highs between 97 and 99 degrees Fahrenheit. Weather.com senior meteorologist Nick Wiltgen said average high temperatures in July are in the lower 80s in this region.
http://www.weather.com/safety/heat/news/japan-heat-wave (http://www.weather.com/safety/heat/news/japan-heat-wave)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 24, 2015, 09:31:20 PM
Scorched earth: U.S. wildfires near record level
Quote
Wildfires have burned a phenomenal 5.5 million acres across the U.S. so far this year, an area equal to the size of New Jersey.

This is the second-highest total in at least the past 25 years, according to data from the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise. Only 2011, which saw 5.8 million acres charred as of July 23 of that year, had more. On average, at this point in the year, 3.5 million acres would have burned.
...
California's fire season also got off to an early start this year. The Golden State's fire season usually begins in late summer and goes into the fall, but several fires were reported even in the winter months, according to CAL FIRE. There have been more than 3,600 fires in California so far this year, almost 1,300 more than usual.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/07/23/scorched-earth-us-wildfires-near-record-level/30579279/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2015/07/23/scorched-earth-us-wildfires-near-record-level/30579279/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 24, 2015, 09:57:13 PM
Canada:  The bad news for Western drought: 'monster' hot El Nino on the way.
Quote
Canada's Prairies have just experienced their driest winter and spring in 68 years of record keeping. "So they were behind the eight-ball before the summer season ever came," says Phillips.

That, coupled with a record low snow pack in North America, and few of the traditional June rains needed to grow crops, has had a cumulative effect that's hit some producers harder than others.

Says Phillips: "For ranchers it's pretty much game over."

The tinder dry land has kept pastures for grazing cattle from turning green and producing feed, forcing cattle ranchers to sell down their herds or ship the animals around looking for alternative feed sources.

Meantime, B.C. has seen more than 1,300 wildfires since April, and the height of fire season doesn't usually begin until August. And, just this week, Metro Vancouver was forced to impose extraordinary stage-three water restrictions,something it hasn't done since 2003, one of the last big, bad summers on record.

Merely restricting water use, though, is little comfort on the parched Prairies, where scattered, late July rains have come too late to help many farmers and ranchers salvage the season.

"Our cereal fields, our oats, our wheat, our barley essentially baked in the field," says Garett Broadbent, agricultural services director for Alberta's Leduc County, just south of Edmonton.

The municipality voted unanimously this week to declare a local state of agricultural disaster as soil moisture and crop conditions continue to decline to the worst levels in half a century.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/the-bad-news-for-western-drought-monster-hot-el-nino-on-the-way-1.3162146 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/the-bad-news-for-western-drought-monster-hot-el-nino-on-the-way-1.3162146)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 25, 2015, 12:29:22 AM
Per Gary Szatkowski of NWS: A similar report for NJ will be issued by USGS.

Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York
Scientific Investigations Report 2015-5036
Prepared in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency
http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155036 (http://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155036)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2015, 12:49:26 AM
‘Exceptional’ cold front blankets Montana and Wyoming peaks with rare July snow
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/28/exceptional-cold-front-blankets-montana-wyoming-peaks-with-rare-july-snow/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/28/exceptional-cold-front-blankets-montana-wyoming-peaks-with-rare-july-snow/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 30, 2015, 12:50:36 AM
Temperatures soar above 123 degrees Fahrenheit in Iraq, forcing four-day holiday
http://mashable.com/2015/07/29/iraq-heat-advisory-123-degrees/ (http://mashable.com/2015/07/29/iraq-heat-advisory-123-degrees/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on July 30, 2015, 06:20:39 PM
http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2015/07/one-killed-several-injured-as-summer-storm-sweeps-across-the-netherlands/ (http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2015/07/one-killed-several-injured-as-summer-storm-sweeps-across-the-netherlands/)

"...the gales were the strongest recorded in the summer since official records began in 1901."

One killed, several injured as summer storm sweeps across the Netherlands
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on July 31, 2015, 06:20:43 PM
68°c...at 35°c outside and me inside my home at 27°C I feel very bad...
Freak Weather Event Made It Feel Like 70C In The Iranian City Of Bandar Mahshahr Yesterday
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/31/freak-weather-68-celsius-iranian-city-bandar-mahshahr_n_7910308.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/07/31/freak-weather-68-celsius-iranian-city-bandar-mahshahr_n_7910308.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2015, 11:44:19 PM
”...storms in the Southern Hemisphere are creating more intense currents in the Pacific Ocean, and larger than normal waves”  ???

Rip Currents Lead to Hundreds of Rescues on SoCal Beaches
http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/rip-currents-lead-hundreds-rescues-los-angeles-county-beaches-n401311 (http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/rip-currents-lead-hundreds-rescues-los-angeles-county-beaches-n401311)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 01, 2015, 03:47:45 PM
Weather Underground's Christopher Burt on the Northwest U.S. heat wave.

Quote
The hot weather and dry conditions have critically impacted the sockeye salmon runs along the Columbia River and its tributaries. Federal and state fishery biologists estimate that up to 80% of the salmon may perish since the fish become stressed at water temperatures above 68° and stop migrating when the water reaches 74° or higher. Many of the Columbian River tributaries are already measuring temperatures above 76°. The Columbian River itself is running at its lowest level for this time of the year in 60 years according to U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service officials.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=328 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=328)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 01, 2015, 07:07:56 PM
India and Myanmar monsoon rains leave dozens dead
Quote
Incessant rain over several weeks has led to flooding and landslides in most of the country (also known as Burma).
...
This is much, much worse than normal," Toe Zaw Latt, the Myanmar bureau chief for the Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) network, told the BBC from Yangon.

On Friday, Ko Myo Zaw Lin, a journalist with DVB, was filmed carrying out a live interview in flood waters up to his chest in the southern city of Bago.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33745840 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33745840)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on August 01, 2015, 09:34:54 PM
Holy crapo!@!@!

Quote
Iran city hits suffocating heat index of 165 degrees, near world record

Wherever you live or happen to travel to, never complain about the heat and humidity again.

In the city of Bandar Mahshahr (population of about 110,000 as of 2010), the air felt like a searing 165 degrees (74 Celsius) today factoring in the humidity.

[Iran’s heat index is literally off the charts, and this is what it feels like]

Although there are no official records of heat indices, this is second highest level we have ever seen reported.

To achieve today’s astronomical heat index level of 165, Bandar Mahshahr’s actual air temperature registered 115 degrees (46 Celsius) with an astonishing dew point temperature of 90 (32 Celsius)....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on August 01, 2015, 10:20:48 PM
That corresponds to a wet-bulb temperature of 34.7C. A wet-bulb temperature of 35C would be fatal after a few hours because it is impossible to lose body heat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html
 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on August 01, 2015, 11:07:36 PM
"At least 52 children in Iraq refugees have died from the heat"

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/iran-heat-index-near-record-165-degrees-fatalities-reported/article/439879#ixzz3hbCUdHOZ (http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/iran-heat-index-near-record-165-degrees-fatalities-reported/article/439879#ixzz3hbCUdHOZ)

I'm thinking these numbers will go higher, though the gov there may be too dysfunctional to do an accurate count.

Children and the elderly are particularly susceptible to heat waves like this. But, as others pointed out, when/if it gets above 35 wbt for over six hours, pretty much everybody not in airconditioning of some kind will die.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: TerryM on August 01, 2015, 11:55:16 PM
That corresponds to a wet-bulb temperature of 34.7C. A wet-bulb temperature of 35C would be fatal after a few hours because it is impossible to lose body heat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html
 (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/opinion/sunday/the-deadly-combination-of-heat-and-humidity.html)


I'd estimated 34.66 wet bulb, but was just guessing at the air pressure. 35WB is the upper limit for humans, but I believe many mammals are less able to deal with extreme heat. If the locals relied on sheep, goats or cattle they may need to import some food PDQ.


Brown outs, where the electrical supplies are hampered by overuse of the grid or poor cooling at generating plants is deadly for AC and refrigeration compressors. When they try to start without enough voltage they require extra amperage which overheats the start windings and burns out the units. This could be deadly for those relying on the HVAC system as no one will be available to make repairs until the danger has past.


I can't imagine any way to prepare for such an eventuality other than shutting down any compressor based system at the first sign of a brownout (dim lamps, small TV picture, flickering lights), and keeping them off line until the situation has resolved itself.


I was in California when Enron was playing with grid voltage and the damage done to commercial refrigeration systems alone was unbelievable.


Terry
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 03, 2015, 09:55:02 PM
Rescues Underway, Evacuations Ordered As More Heavy Rain, Flooding Swamps Tampa Bay, Florida Area
Quote
The Anclote River was expected to crest Monday evening, potentially at a level just under 5 inches below the crest observed during Tropical Storm Debby on June 26, 2012, according to the National Weather Service office in Ruskin, Florida.
...
Through 1 p.m. Monday, Tampa International Airport has picked up 17.06 inches of rain since Friday, July 24, more than the average monthly rain in the city's two wettest months of July (7.06 inches) and August (7.76 inches).

Less than three full days into August, Tampa exceeded its average August rainfall late Monday morning, already tallying over eight inches of rain.
http://www.weather.com/news/news/tampa-florida-flooding-impacts (http://www.weather.com/news/news/tampa-florida-flooding-impacts)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 05, 2015, 01:17:19 PM
Super Typhoon Soudelor is the strongest storm on Earth this year
Quote
Since Soudelor reached the equivalent of a Category 5 intensity storm, with maximum sustained winds of 155 miles per hour or greater, it has become the sixth such storm on Earth this year. The average number of these fierce storms is just 4.6 per year.
http://mashable.com/2015/08/03/super-typhoon-soudelor-cat5-monster/ (http://mashable.com/2015/08/03/super-typhoon-soudelor-cat5-monster/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2015, 03:15:11 AM
Hong Kong swelters on hottest day in history
Quote
Hong Kong on Saturday recorded its hottest day since authorities began taking temperature readings 130 years ago, due to the influence of a nearby typhoon.
http://news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-swelters-hottest-day-history-102424750.html (http://news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-swelters-hottest-day-history-102424750.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2015, 04:59:21 PM
Quote
@billmckibben: Tokyo notches 8 straight days over 95F, twice as long as the old record heatwave http://t.co/ETusGsWcIS (http://t.co/ETusGsWcIS)

Soudelor Winds Down; Hilda Hits Category 4; Hong Kong Sets All-Time Heat Record
Quote
Former Typhoon Soudelor, now a 50-mph tropical storm, is inland over eastern China after giving storm-savvy Taiwan one of its most powerful typhoon strikes on record.
...
On Saturday, the venerable Hong Kong Observatory reached 36.3°C (97.3°F), the hottest temperature in its 132-year history. The heat in Hong Kong was likely enhanced by sinking air around the southern periphery of Typhoon Soudelor. Likewise, subsidence on the north side of Soudelor helped keep Tokyo toasty, as the city notched its eight consecutive day of at least 95°F temperatures on Friday. The streak was twice the previous record length of four days, recorded on five different occasions between 1978 and 2013, as noted in a full report by The Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen. Records in Tokyo began in 1875. The streak was broken on Saturday, as temperatures topped out at 91°F, and the heat should stay just short of the 95°F threshold over the coming week.

Meanwhile, central and eastern Europe continues to broil in a sustained heat wave. In Poland, the Wroclaw Observatory hit an all-time record high on Saturday of 38.9°C (102.0°F), and highs soared above 95°F over a broad swath from Lithuania to the Mediterranean. Some areas will see relief over the next several days, but others are facing at least a solid week of torrid readings....
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3066 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3066)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 12, 2015, 04:32:21 PM
Europe Heat Wave Sets All-Time Record in Germany, Again; Prompts Poland Power Cuts
http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/europe-heat-wave-poland-germany-czech-august-2015 (http://www.weather.com/news/climate/news/europe-heat-wave-poland-germany-czech-august-2015)


Death Toll in Egypt's Scorching Heat Wave Rises to Over 60
Quote
The Mideast has been hit by a heat wave since late July. Egyptian summers are usually hot, but temperatures this week soared to 46 degrees Celsius (114 degrees Fahrenheit) in the south.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/death-toll-egypts-scorching-heat-wave-rises-60-33032796 (http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/death-toll-egypts-scorching-heat-wave-rises-60-33032796)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 12, 2015, 05:01:34 PM
Some context for the above comment.  Temperature Anomaly map.

From:  http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 01:07:48 AM
Three Years of Rain Falls in 12 Hours as Deadly Storm Causes Flooding, Mudslides in Chile
Quote
"The Atacama Desert is an extremely arid region and has been for millions of years. As a result, the terrain is hard and rocky because rainfall isn't frequent or abundant enough for either weathering rocks into sand or supporting the kind of ecosystem that would help turn rocks and minerals into soil. Without soil and plant cover to help absorb rainfall, it just runs off instantly as torrents of water," weather.com senior meteorologist Nick Wiltgen said.

http://www.weather.com/news/news/chile-deadly-storm-flooding-mudslides (http://www.weather.com/news/news/chile-deadly-storm-flooding-mudslides)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 02:20:22 AM
Global warming seen lurking behind this summer’s deadly heat waves
http://mashable.com/2015/08/12/summer-heat-waves-global-warming/ (http://mashable.com/2015/08/12/summer-heat-waves-global-warming/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2015, 03:08:44 AM
Rare, Large Hail Prompts First Severe Thunderstorm Warning from NWS-Anchorage in Six Years
http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/alaska-rare-hailstorm-august-2015 (http://www.weather.com/storms/severe/news/alaska-rare-hailstorm-august-2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on August 23, 2015, 06:51:05 PM
http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/08/take_precautions_as_wildfire_s.html#incart_breaking (http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2015/08/take_precautions_as_wildfire_s.html#incart_breaking)

One more consequence of global warming...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 03:55:02 PM
How Extreme Weather Is Melting Hollywood’s Winter Shoots
http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/08/hollywood-climate-change-global-warming-snow (http://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2015/08/hollywood-climate-change-global-warming-snow)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 29, 2015, 09:15:27 PM
NASA visualizations:
Quote
Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on August 29, 2005, leaving a trail of destruction and hundreds of deaths. Since then, researchers have made strides in understanding the inner-core processes and environmental factors that affect the path and intensity of a hurricane. When a hurricane strikes now, scientists have a better understanding of where it’s going and what’s going on inside it than they did ten years ago thanks to higher resolution models largely enabled by more powerful supercomputers. Today’s models have up to ten times the resolution than those during Katrina and allow for a more accurate look inside a hurricane. Using these models, historical storms can even be recreated in great detail to help scientists study and learn about past events. Watch the videos to see simulations of Hurricane Katrina created from a NASA weather and climate model in 2015.
http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11925&button=recent&linkId=16662186 (http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/details.cgi?aid=11925&button=recent&linkId=16662186)
(Note: may take a minute for the page to appear.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2015, 05:44:34 PM
450,000 lose power in Seattle, Washington area due to unusual, strong wind storm.
Quote
The National Weather Service reported 20 to 35 mph winds, with gusts of 50 mph. One weather station in Hoquiam clocked a gust of 63 mph.

Late August is unusually early for such a powerful storm, meteorologists said. Trees, already stressed by dry conditions, still have their leaves, which makes them more likely to fall when strong winds blow.

Crews working to restore power were taxed by the storm's breadth. It tore trees out of the ground across a vast swatch of the Pacific Northwest, stretching manpower and equipment thin.

"If it just hits one part of our service area, you can maybe send crews down from another area. But this is a service-area-wide event," said Christina Donegan, a spokeswoman for Puget Sound Energy, which reported 224,000 customers without power by early evening.
Strong winds blamed for 2 deaths in Seattle area
http://m.seattlepi.com/news/us/article/Strong-winds-blamed-for-2-deaths-in-Seattle-area-6473708.php (http://m.seattlepi.com/news/us/article/Strong-winds-blamed-for-2-deaths-in-Seattle-area-6473708.php)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2015, 09:44:28 PM
Unusual hurricane-strength storm forming in far eastern Atlantic: "Fred."

Quote
@weatherchannel: T.S. #Fred forecast to become a #hurricane. Hurricane warning issued for Cape Verde Islands: http://t.co/U4YQgLViFU (http://t.co/U4YQgLViFU) http://t.co/AL3cooU7zT (http://t.co/AL3cooU7zT)

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/638007268085268480 (https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/638007268085268480)
Quote
@AlexJLamers: Only two previous cases could probably be argued as hurricanes moving thru Cape Verde Isl in historical record. #Fred http://t.co/mIfS0pTnqA (http://t.co/mIfS0pTnqA)

https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/637958010963275776 (https://twitter.com/alexjlamers/status/637958010963275776)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2015, 10:01:28 PM
Barometric, temperature and snowfall maps at the link.

Quote
@RyanMaue: Unusually deep trough & low-pressure (< 980 mb) over Alaska & Yukon Canada.  Snow, freezing temps next several days http://t.co/VgdYvq2Re8 (http://t.co/VgdYvq2Re8)

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/637869733438705664 (https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/637869733438705664)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 31, 2015, 12:19:37 AM
Quote
@billmckibben: No wonder WA is on fire--Seattle smashes record for most 80-degree days in a year (and 85, and 90) http://t.co/IaJXA47BRz (http://t.co/IaJXA47BRz)

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/638055841480904704 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/638055841480904704)
Seattle's hot summer claims final heat record left on the books
http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Seattles-hot-summer-claims-final-heat-record-left-on-the-books-323128211.html (http://www.komonews.com/weather/blogs/scott/Seattles-hot-summer-claims-final-heat-record-left-on-the-books-323128211.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 31, 2015, 12:00:04 PM
Unusual hurricane-strength storm forming in far eastern Atlantic: "Fred."

Fred achieved hurricane strength overnight:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-fred-threatens-cape-verde-islands/ (http://econnexus.org/hurricane-fred-threatens-cape-verde-islands/)

Quote
FRED BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE EASTERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

LOCATION…15.3N 22.5W

Aqua yesterday:

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 31, 2015, 05:14:28 PM
Fred from Terra today:

http://econnexus.org/hurricane-fred-threatens-cape-verde-islands/#1445Aug31 (http://econnexus.org/hurricane-fred-threatens-cape-verde-islands/#1445Aug31)

Although a mere tropical storm, Erika killed 20+ in the Dominican Republic over the weekend:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.nola.com%2Ftpphotos%2Fphoto%2F2015%2F08%2F28%2F18637343-standard.jpg&hash=2ee994b842e4b4ddfc219f8855c3addc)



Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Juan C. García on September 05, 2015, 05:34:33 AM
This is climate change: Alaskan villagers struggle as island is chewed up by the sea:

http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-arctic-obama-20150830-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-arctic-obama-20150830-story.html)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 02:36:29 PM
 :D

Quote
The Welsh town of Llanfairpwllgwyngyllgogerychwyrndrobwllllantysiliogogogoch was particularly warm on Monday. Which meant Welsh weatherman Liam Dutton would have to include it as part of his daily forecast.
http://www.today.com/news/weatherman-aces-pronunciation-llanfair-pwllgwyngyll-gogery-chwyrn-drobwll-llan-tysilio-t43041 (http://www.today.com/news/weatherman-aces-pronunciation-llanfair-pwllgwyngyll-gogery-chwyrn-drobwll-llan-tysilio-t43041)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 07:09:33 PM
Heavy rain causes floods in Japan; sends tainted water from Fukushima into the sea
Quote
A Japanese city was flooded on Thursday (Sept 10) when a raging river burst its banks, destroying homes and cars as desperate residents waited for help, and as thousands of people were ordered to evacuate.

Dramatic television footage showed a wall of muddy water gushing from the swollen Kinugawa river in Joso city, north of Tokyo, which is home to around 65,000 people.

Several people are reportedly missing across the country as waist-high floods in some areas left rescuers scrambling to pluck residents to safety as a wide area was deluged in the wake of Typhoon Etau.

The huge rains also exacerbated a contaminated water problem at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant as it overwhelmed the site’s drainage pumps, sending radiation-tainted water into the ocean.

“This is a scale of downpour that we have not experienced before,” forecaster Takuya Deshimaru told an emergency press conference.
http://atimes.com/2015/09/heavy-rain-causes-floods-in-japan-sends-tainted-water-from-fukushima-plant-into-sea/ (http://atimes.com/2015/09/heavy-rain-causes-floods-in-japan-sends-tainted-water-from-fukushima-plant-into-sea/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 07:28:20 PM
Historic Floods in Japan Force More Than 100,000 People From Their Homes
https://news.vice.com/article/historic-floods-in-japan-force-more-than-100000-people-from-their-homes
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on September 10, 2015, 08:10:09 PM
Could be some flooding in Ireland over the next few days.

Met Eireann have an orange warning out for flooding tomorrow.

Quote
STATUS ORANGE

Rainfall Warning for Connacht, Donegal, Clare, Cork, Kerry, Limerick and Tipperary
Widespread, very heavy rain, with some thundery downpours will develop Thursday night and persist through Friday, leading to spot flooding and possibly accumulations of 35 to 50mm, but up to 70mm possibly on hilly ground and on mountains.

Issued:Thursday 10 September 2015 09:00
Valid:Friday 11 September 2015 00:01 to Friday 11 September 2015 23:59

More heavy rain is forecast for Sunday too, with accumulations between tonight and Sunday night possibly exceeding 100mm in parts of the west, but widely between 50 and 100mm.

Typical totals for the month of September range from about 110mm along parts of the south west coast to about 60mm towards the east coast

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 03:33:12 PM
Dust storms and thunderstorms are common in the area at this time of year. Was this storm "unusually strong"?

Crane Collapse in High Winds Kills At Least 107 at Mecca's Grand Mosque During Hajj
http://www.weather.com/news/news/mecca-crane-collapse (http://www.weather.com/news/news/mecca-crane-collapse)

Saudi Arabia blames winds for deadly crane collapse, opens investigation
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/12/us-saudi-haj-idUSKCN0RB1WN20150912 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/12/us-saudi-haj-idUSKCN0RB1WN20150912)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 08:18:47 PM
Quote
@weatherchannel: Stunning before/after GIFs of the #Japan #flood disaster, released by Google & DigitalGlobe. http://t.co/R8lYI75uBb (http://t.co/R8lYI75uBb) http://t.co/KZemM1Ax6M (http://t.co/KZemM1Ax6M)

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/642733961177866240 (https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/642733961177866240)
http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/japan-flood-before-after-satellite-images-etau-sep2015 (http://www.weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/japan-flood-before-after-satellite-images-etau-sep2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 13, 2015, 09:51:39 PM
All-time record heat in the Caribbean
Quote
Record heat scorched the Caribbean again on Saturday. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, an all-time heat record was set on the island of Anguilla in the Lesser Antilles: 33.8°C (92.8°F), besting the record of 33.7°C set just four days previously. The Cuban capital of La Habana (Havana) also recorded its hottest temperature on record and the hottest temperature ever measured in September in Cuba, with 38.2°C (100.8°F) at the Casablanca Observatory. Havana's previous all-time heat record was set just a few months ago, on April 26, 2015: 37.0°C....

Record heat and drought has been widespread over the Caribbean this summer, with the worst drought conditions occurring over Haiti, Eastern Cuba, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Costa Rica. Reuters reported last month that Cuba began a two-month cloud-seeding campaign in September over the eastern part of the Caribbean island in hopes of easing its worst drought since at least 1901. The atmospheric circulation associated with the strong El Niño event in the Eastern Pacific has brought warm, sinking air and high pressure to the Caribbean, and has contributed to many cities recording their all-time highest temperatures on record. Another big factor in Saturday's record highs, and the record highs all across the Caribbean this year, is the fact that the year-to-date period of 2015 has been the warmest on record for the globe as a whole....
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3111 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3111)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 02:43:48 PM
A reminder that it no longer requires a "tropical storm" for extreme amounts of rain to fall.

Alabama and Florida Hit by Floods After Historic Gulf Coast Downpour
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/mobile-alabama-hit-floods-after-historic-gulf-coast-downpour-n434641 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/mobile-alabama-hit-floods-after-historic-gulf-coast-downpour-n434641)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 08:46:55 PM
Heads up, U.S. East Coast!

Tropical Storm Joaquin Likely to Produce East Coast Deluge This Week
Quote
The East Coast is about to get a lot of rain. The latest projection from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center (below), which is produced by meteorologists after consulting a suite of computer forecast models, shows as much as 8-9 inches of rain is likely from the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through next Tuesday. That’s an incredible amount—more than two months’ worth—and individual weather models are showing even more is possible in some areas if thunderstorms align into narrow bands.
...
Comparing the current pattern with similar historical weather patterns, one of the leading analogs right now is Hurricane Irene in 2011, which produced catastrophic flooding in upstate New York and New England. Other matches include the merging of Tropical Storm Tammy and a subtropical depression in October 2005 and the remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole in 2010. Ocean temperatures in the vicinity of Tropical Storm Joaquin are currently at the warmest levels ever measured since weather records began in 1880—there’s clearly a lot of energy to work with here.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/29/tropical_storm_joaquin_new_york_city_and_the_rest_of_the_east_coast_should.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/29/tropical_storm_joaquin_new_york_city_and_the_rest_of_the_east_coast_should.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:12:20 AM
Quote
@billmckibben: TS Joaquin now passing over the warmest waters measured off Bahamas since record-keeping began in the 1880s http://t.co/Yfx3aonF9o (http://t.co/Yfx3aonF9o)

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/649038494703222785 (https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/649038494703222785)
Joaquin Intensifying; Potential Threat for Bahamas and U.S. Coast
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3130 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3130)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:34:07 PM
U.S. Landfall Increasingly Likely for Hurricane Joaquin
Quote
Even if Joaquin somehow avoids a U.S. landfall, it’s going to rain a lot in a lot of cities over the next few days. This morning’s GFS model shows a ridiculous 2 feet—or more—of rain possible over the Carolinas by Monday.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/30/hurricane_joaquin_sandy_like_possibilities_and_a_scary_forecast_for_washington.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/09/30/hurricane_joaquin_sandy_like_possibilities_and_a_scary_forecast_for_washington.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 05:36:21 PM
Quote
@EricHolthaus: Again, regardless of where #Joaquin makes landfall, potentially destructive/catastrophic flooding possible from Carolinas to New England.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/649243481416839168
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2015, 07:51:30 PM
The linked Robert Scribbler article compares the many similarities between Hurricane Joaquin and Hurricane Sandy (shades of "Storms of my Grandchildren")

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/09/30/climate-change-superstorm-redux-joaquine-shows-some-eerie-similarities-to-sandy-in-gfs-forecast/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/09/30/climate-change-superstorm-redux-joaquine-shows-some-eerie-similarities-to-sandy-in-gfs-forecast/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 01, 2015, 11:28:15 PM
The linked Fox News report has Hurricane Joaquin making landfall at NYC next Tuesday (shades of Hurricane Sandy):

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-strengthens-into-category-3-storm-eyes-bahamas/ (http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-strengthens-into-category-3-storm-eyes-bahamas/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on October 02, 2015, 09:23:57 AM
Now Category 4 and really battering the Bahamas but models indicating a higher probability of avoiding a direct hit on the East Coast.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?#IRENE (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?#IRENE)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2015, 09:56:16 PM
Historic rainfall and major flood event looms for the Southeast this weekend
Quote
According to statistics compiled by NOAA, South Carolina’s torrential weekend rain could turn out to be 1,000-year rainfall events.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/02/historic-rainfall-and-major-flood-event-looms-for-the-southeast-this-weekend/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/02/historic-rainfall-and-major-flood-event-looms-for-the-southeast-this-weekend/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2015, 10:23:19 PM
The linked Fox News report has Hurricane Joaquin making landfall at NYC next Tuesday (shades of Hurricane Sandy):

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-strengthens-into-category-3-storm-eyes-bahamas/ (http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2015/10/01/hurricane-joaquin-strengthens-into-category-3-storm-eyes-bahamas/)

Models have come around to the EURO way of thinking, that Hurricane Joaquim will head out to sea.

But "Rex Block" atmospheric conditions will still result in days of catastrophic rains over much of the U.S. east coast.
http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/how-the--rex-block--will-dump-massive-rain-on-the-carolinas--mid-atlantic-536827459544 (http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/how-the--rex-block--will-dump-massive-rain-on-the-carolinas--mid-atlantic-536827459544)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2015, 10:34:06 PM
Porentially catastrophic conditions in the Bahamas, where Hurricane Joaquin, currently Category 4,  will remain until Saturday.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-joaquin-bahamas-atlantic-east-coast-bermuda-2015 (http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-joaquin-bahamas-atlantic-east-coast-bermuda-2015)

Many related articles on the landing page of www.weather.com (http://www.weather.com)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2015, 10:46:31 PM
Already flooding at New Jersey shore around high tide.  Winds gusting 50 mph+.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 02, 2015, 10:59:30 PM
Winds at altitude (850 hPa), circling clockwise around the northern ridge over Canada, counter-clockwise around the southern trough with Hurricane Joaquin.  Like a firehose directed at the eastern U.S., pumping in warm, moist air from the ocean.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 03:03:12 PM
Looks like South Carolina, particularly the Charleston area, will be the hardest hit by this system -- which is not ending soon.

Charleston police: No traffic allowed onto peninsula until flooding recedes
http://www.abcnews4.com/story/30130692/roads-closed-due-to-flooding (http://www.abcnews4.com/story/30130692/roads-closed-due-to-flooding)

Predicted rainfall amounts, Saturday through Tuesday morning.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 04:54:11 PM
The weather model debate continues.

Some Perspective On European Vs American Weather Models After Hurricane Joaquin
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/03/european-model-vs-american-model-post-joaquin-debate-likely-but-some-perspective/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2015/10/03/european-model-vs-american-model-post-joaquin-debate-likely-but-some-perspective/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 06:16:19 PM
Quote
@afreedma: W/ hvy rain + PM high tide, flooding in Charleston, SC is worsening "DANGEROUS AND POSSIBLY LIFE THREATENING" situation unfolding, per NWS.

https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/650341251074670592

Quote
@UWCIMSS: #GOES water vapor reveals Rex Block conveyor belt of moisture from #Joaquin to flooding rains up the U.S. east coast http://t.co/L9NJvwaYaW (http://t.co/L9NJvwaYaW)

https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/650286797679915008 (https://twitter.com/uwcimss/status/650286797679915008)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 03, 2015, 06:27:26 PM
Quote
Depending on where the 15-inch plus amounts fall, it's quite possible that four to five months' worth of rain will fall in the Carolinas in just 48 hours.
Good discussion of the atmospheric elements involved with this storm:
http://mashable.com/2015/10/02/thousand-year-rains-carolinas-flood/ (http://mashable.com/2015/10/02/thousand-year-rains-carolinas-flood/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 03:40:09 AM
Historic Rainfall Pummels the Carolinas and Floods Charleston
Quote
...this is an exceptionally rare meteorological situation, and one the National Weather Service seems unusually concerned about. On Saturday, the NWS warned that “catastrophic flash flooding” was possible in South Carolina until at least Sunday evening with “isolated areas reaching the 1000 year recurrence interval” in terms of the statistical (un-)likelihood of the torrential rainfall.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 01:34:52 PM
France: two months of rainfall in two hours.
Quote
ANTIBES, France - Flash flooding around the French Riviera has killed at least 16 people, including some trapped in cars, a campsite and a retirement home, the president said. Torrents of muddy water also inundated buildings, roads and railway tracks, disrupting car and train traffic along the Mediterranean coast.

Helicopters patrolled the area and 27,000 homes were without electricity Sunday after the Brague River overflowed its banks and fierce thunderstorms poured more than 6.7 inches of rain on the Cannes region in two hours Saturday night. That is the equivalent of two months of rainfall for the region, local radio France Bleu-Azur reported
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flash-flooding-deadly-french-riviera/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/flash-flooding-deadly-french-riviera/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 02:08:17 PM
The insane amounts of rainfall onto the souteast U.S. coast (South Carolina) continues today.

Image from WeatherUnderground's Storm app.  Strong individual storm cells are labeled with their projected path over the next hour.  Green outlined/shaded counties have flood watches/warnings.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 03:56:59 PM
Quote
@anthonywx: Just incredible to watch this plume of moisture aim at South Carolina. Extremely unusual atmospheric setup. [satellite animation:] http://t.co/d8l8NqLnt9 (http://t.co/d8l8NqLnt9)

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/650665529254936576 (https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/650665529254936576)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 06:05:02 PM
Unimaginable conditions today in South Carolina.  And it's still raining.
Quote
@weatherchannel: Columbia, SC MT @SCEMD Partially submerged vehicle in the middle of I-77 at Decker Blvd. http://t.co/wo8iMJdqJv (http://t.co/wo8iMJdqJv) http://t.co/cgcv0hngl7 (http://t.co/cgcv0hngl7)

@Chaddiwack: Dam collapse at Semmes Lake on Fort Jackson @VonGaskin @TimMillerSC http://t.co/brFsJBfgJh (http://t.co/brFsJBfgJh)

Town flooding:
@LevinsReports: A harrowing sight that we've never seen, and hope to never see again. #SCFlood @WLTX [video:] http://t.co/VApT1TONBW (http://t.co/VApT1TONBW)

@4cast4you: Coast Guard Charleston is being called into help for rescues over land. Wow... https://t.co/utn4qbY3MB (https://t.co/utn4qbY3MB)

@4cast4you: City of Columbia has "two hundred [high water] rescues pending", per @wis10.

River gauges being swept way:
@Wxmanms1: Here's the note NWS CAE posted on their FB page about the gage issues in their area. #SCFlood http://t.co/4Yb545DdLV (http://t.co/4Yb545DdLV)

@peakwx: Incredible... mind-boggling, indeed. Reading comments from fellow #CoCoRaHS volunteers in SC.  #SEFlood http://t.co/30ufBn45To (http://t.co/30ufBn45To)

@EricHolthaus: To recap, officials are advising every single person in state of South Carolina to stay home today. It's that bad.
 http://t.co/bpV4PIewtb (http://t.co/bpV4PIewtb)
Edit: Peak rain for this event already surpasses Hurricane Floyd, and Frances
Quote
@wxjerdman: Peak rain (24.23" near Charleston) > peaks from Floyd (24.06") & Frances (23.57"). {Maps: David Roth/WPC} #serain http://t.co/B94FCp9T9x (http://t.co/B94FCp9T9x)

https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/650660532052103168 (https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/650660532052103168)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 06:14:53 PM
Wind at 850 hPa (about 5,000 feet; 1,500 m) now is blasting straight onto the US east coast.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 04, 2015, 07:58:22 PM
By the way...

Quote
The incredible moisture flow streaming toward South Carolina from the Atlantic Ocean is being enhanced by Hurricane Joaquin, which continued to strengthen on Saturday and is now the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic this far north this late in the year, and one of the strongest ever during an El Niño, which typically makes Atlantic hurricanes weaker.

Though Joaquin is headed out to sea, away from the U.S. coastline, the close juxtaposition of two phenomena—a strong Canadian high pressure system and a separate low pressure center over Alabama—is diverting a conveyor belt of heavy rain from the hurricane, and a pronounced kink in the jet stream is strengthening the rain even further.

As I described Friday, this is an exceptionally rare meteorological situation, and one the National Weather Service seems unusually concerned about. On Saturday, the NWS warned that “catastrophic flash flooding” was possible in South Carolina until at least Sunday evening with “isolated areas reaching the 1000 year recurrence interval” in terms of the statistical (un-)likelihood of the torrential rainfall.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/03/carolinas_and_charleston_flooded_with_rain_from_hurricane_joaquin.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 05, 2015, 07:15:08 PM
South Carolina flooding is the type of event climate scientists have warned about for years
Quote
Trenberth... cited the ongoing strong El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, which has helped drive global ocean temperatures to their highest temperature on record, as a possible factor behind this storm system.

"El Niño means all action is in [the] Pacific," which suppresses tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. "This means build up of heat that waits for an opportunity to escape in some sense."
http://mashable.com/2015/10/05/south-carolina-floods-global-warming/ (http://mashable.com/2015/10/05/south-carolina-floods-global-warming/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2015, 03:02:12 AM
A detailed look.

The meteorology behind South Carolina’s catastrophic, 1,000-year rainfall event
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/05/the-meteorology-behind-south-carolinas-catastrophic-1000-year-rainfall-event/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/10/05/the-meteorology-behind-south-carolinas-catastrophic-1000-year-rainfall-event/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2015, 03:06:33 AM
Weather records were broken across Australia as the temperature reached 38 degrees in some parts of the country.
Bushfires burned in all states in an early start to the season with total fire bans declared in some areas because of the conditions.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/05/records-broken-as-temperatures-soar-up-to-38-degrees-across-australia (http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/oct/05/records-broken-as-temperatures-soar-up-to-38-degrees-across-australia)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on October 06, 2015, 09:34:26 AM
The combination of El Niño and the annual rain forest burning in Sumatra has turned Singapore into a Smog Zone for most of the past month.

Levels of PM 2.5 have been persistently high. Life for my three grandchildren out there is getting increasingly difficult with schools closed on a regular basis and there's little sign of an end in sight.

The highlight of the weekend for my family was the opportunity to go out for a while without "smog prep" as the Air Quality Index dropped into the Amber zone. It's back to "unhealthy" right now.

The Island needs the usual evening thunderstorm on a regular basis right now but it seems El Niño is effectively putting a lid on that.

http://aqicn.org/city/singapore/central/ (http://aqicn.org/city/singapore/central/)



Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2015, 01:26:35 PM
Aftermath and review of the South Carolina flooding, including potential dam failures.
Article with embedded videos and tweets.

Carolinas Flooding Danger Remains as Historic Rainfall Passes
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/carolinas-flooding-danger-remains-historic-rainfall-passes-n439116 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/carolinas-flooding-danger-remains-historic-rainfall-passes-n439116)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2015, 01:30:01 AM
The combination of El Niño and the annual rain forest burning in Sumatra has turned Singapore into a Smog Zone for most of the past month.

Indonesia Says Tough to Set Haze Deadline With Fires, Weather
Quote
President Joko Widodo’s recent trip to Sumatra island for a progress check was cut short as the smoke was so thick his plane couldn’t land, forcing him back to the capital.

Exacerbated by dry conditions from El Nino, the haze has blown across Southeast Asia, blanketing Singapore, parts of Indonesia and Malaysia in a smog that has caused these areas to close schools and suspend outdoor events. In parts of Indonesia, people were forced to flee their homes.

“One challenge is that farmers are still burning,” Rampangilei said. “We all know that burning is cheap and makes the soil more fertile.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/indonesia-says-tough-to-set-haze-deadline-with-fires-weather (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/indonesia-says-tough-to-set-haze-deadline-with-fires-weather)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: solartim27 on October 07, 2015, 09:11:34 PM
South Carolina flooding is the type of event climate scientists have warned about for years

And state government officials have been ignoring, no, this is worse than ignoring.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/26/1640291/suppressed-south-carolina-climate-change-report-warns-of-big-impacts/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/02/26/1640291/suppressed-south-carolina-climate-change-report-warns-of-big-impacts/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2015, 12:43:02 AM
Social Media Roasts Flooded South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley for Climate Change Denial
https://www.inverse.com/article/6663-social-media-roasts-flooded-s-c-gov-nikki-haley-for-climate-change-denial (https://www.inverse.com/article/6663-social-media-roasts-flooded-s-c-gov-nikki-haley-for-climate-change-denial)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2015, 02:12:48 AM
Texas Rain Floods Roads, Causes Rock Slide
Quote
A slow-moving storm system has been plaguing the Southwest and southern High Plains with drenching rain and thunderstorms for several days now. The heavy rain was particularly problematic on Thursday in parts of Texas.
...
The area is not regularly accustomed to heavy rain this time of the year. Several reporting stations in southwest Texas were already running at 500 to 1000 percent to normal rainfall for the month.
http://www.weather.com/news/weather/news/texas-rain-flooding-rockslide (http://www.weather.com/news/weather/news/texas-rain-flooding-rockslide)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2015, 02:28:06 AM
(Remnants of) Hurricane Oho bringing heavy rain and winds on an odd track to northwest coast.
Quote
On its current path, Oho is taking a peculiar track to the northeast. Although tropical systems do, on occasion, move to the northeast in the central Pacific, since 1949, no late season (October or later) system has formed south of Hawaii and moved to the northeast.

Furthermore, no hurricanes have ventured into the region off Northwest Coast of the U.S., extending west several hundred miles. However, prior to the advent of weather satellites, a weakening hurricane did strike southern California as a strong tropical storm in 1939.
http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-oho-hurricane-northwest-british-columbia (http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/tropical-storm-oho-hurricane-northwest-british-columbia)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on October 11, 2015, 11:41:37 AM
"Autumn cancelled in southern Siberia as Altai basks in 27C heat"

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0444-autumn-cancelled-in-southern-siberia-as-altai-basks-in-27c-heat/ (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/news/n0444-autumn-cancelled-in-southern-siberia-as-altai-basks-in-27c-heat/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 11, 2015, 08:25:05 PM
Quote
Lewis and King looked at how often Australia set hot and cold temperature records from the year 1910 through 2014. They only considered temperature records across the country as a whole and in each of its states or territories (except Tasmania), and only examined monthly, seasonal and annual records. Thus, the study did not examine daily records or records in individual locations. (This was in part to avoid problems introduced by the fact that over time, the number of individual temperature recording stations changes.)

...Hot records started to happen much more frequently than cold records — and from 2000 to 2014, outnumbered them by more than 12 to 1.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/09/the-simple-statistic-that-perfectly-captures-what-climate-change-means/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/09/the-simple-statistic-that-perfectly-captures-what-climate-change-means/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on October 18, 2015, 08:47:50 AM
Typhoon Koppu (Lando) is starting to batter the Philippines. Forecasters are saying that the slow moving nature of the Category 4 storm will bring unbelievable amounts of rain.

It looks like the start of yet another difficult time for this nation that sits in the eye of the El Niño fuelled storm track.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=50WVyrYNE-0 (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=50WVyrYNE-0)

http://atimes.com/2015/10/typhoon-koppu-hits-philippines-worst-scenario-set-to-unfold/ (http://atimes.com/2015/10/typhoon-koppu-hits-philippines-worst-scenario-set-to-unfold/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 12:11:03 PM
BREAKING  NEWS  OCT 23 2015, 6:06 AM ET
Hurricane Patricia: Strongest Storm Ever Measured On The Planet -- to Hit Mexico

Quote
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest storm ever measured on the planet early Friday with experts warning it could trigger 39-foot waves along Mexico's coast and "life-threatening" flash flooding.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-patricia-strongest-storm-ever-measured-hit-mexico-n449731)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 01:09:03 PM
Quote
"Patricia is a storm without precedent. We are living history today, but nobody will live it more than Mexico. While we try to wrap our minds around what the atmosphere did last night, it’s important to remember that there are people in the path of this storm. This is not some abstract homework assignment assigned by some madman meteorology professor. This is a real storm that is quickly approaching land and soon threatens to create unimaginable amounts of devastation in any communities caught directly in the path of Patricia’s eye."
http://thevane.gawker.com/at-200-mph-hurricane-patricia-is-now-the-strongest-tro-1738224692 (http://thevane.gawker.com/at-200-mph-hurricane-patricia-is-now-the-strongest-tro-1738224692)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: citrine on October 23, 2015, 07:24:17 PM
Thanks for the links on Patricia, Sigmetnow.

These lines from the second article jumped out at me:

"This historic feat took everyone by surprise. No weather models predicted this, and just a few short days ago, even the most experienced meteorologist would have laughed if you mentioned the possibility."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 07:45:07 PM
Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
Quote
Stunning, historic, mind-boggling, and catastrophic: that sums up Hurricane Patricia, which intensified to an incredible-strength Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds overnight. At 2:46 am EDT October 23, 2015 an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 880 mb in Patricia, making it the most intense hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. The aircraft measured surface winds of 200 mph, which are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone, anywhere on the Earth.
...
Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 100 mb in 24 hours, making it the fastest-intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3165&cm_ven=tw-jm (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3165&cm_ven=tw-jm)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 23, 2015, 11:10:53 PM
Here is an Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map of Hurricane Patricia on Oct 23 2015 just before landfall:

Edit: the second Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map image shows Patricia at landfall
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 01:36:14 AM
It’s Undeniable: Climate Change Made Hurricane Patricia Worse
Quote
Meteorologically, there are at least four reasons why global warming could have contributed to Patricia’s ferocity: El Niño, exceptionally warm ocean temperatures, increased atmospheric humidity, and sea level rise.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_was_made_worse_by_climate_change.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/23/hurricane_patricia_was_made_worse_by_climate_change.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 01:54:13 AM
Quote
@VaisalaGroup: #Patricia is among the few storms that have #lightning in a tight circle in the eyewall. [graphics:] https://t.co/mMpfrhVbKK

https://twitter.com/vaisalagroup/status/657693441686638592 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 02:02:28 AM
The Science of Forecasting Patricia and What to Expect From the Historic Storm
Quote
While most of the models predicted strengthening, they all underestimated how quickly Patricia would strengthen and how strong the wind speeds would become. The NHC explicitly forecast rapid intensification in their advisory at 11 p.m. EDT on Wednesday night and in subsequent advisories yesterday, noting the very favorable environment (low vertical wind shear, very humid air, very warm sea surface temperatures and high upper ocean heat content). The sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are currently significantly warmer than average because of the strong El Niño event that is occurring. However, it is very challenging to forecast rapid intensification, and indeed, the explosive strengthening of Patricia was nearly unprecedented in the observed record.
http://wxshift.com/news/blog/the-science-of-forecasting-patricia (http://wxshift.com/news/blog/the-science-of-forecasting-patricia)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 12:55:10 PM
PATRICIA: A GLOBAL VIEW
Record-setting hurricane's connections are far-reaching
https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/17573/patricia-global-view
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 01:03:02 PM
It is just as the climate scientists foretold.... :o

Texas in 2015 has gone from drought, to floods in May, back to drought, and now floods again.
Quote
Texas has gone through a cycle of precipitation extremes in 2015.

At the start of this year, the state was in a multi-year drought that ramped up in 2011.

A wetter pattern began to take shape in the spring. It was punctuated by a succession of heavy rain events in May, which wiped out the drought in a matter of weeks and sent rivers over their banks and reservoirs over capacity in Texas, Oklahoma and other nearby states.  To add insult to injury, Tropical Storm Bill and its remnant spread another round of heavy rain through the waterlogged region in mid-June.

Just as quickly as that drought faded, it has returned to parts of Texas and surrounding states due to a hot and dry summer. According to the Oct. 20 Drought Monitor analysis, roughly 50 percent of the Lone Star State was officially in drought. For the first time since May 5, exceptional drought, the worst drought category, was recorded in a small part of Texas earlier in October.

The rain through this weekend is needed to help the relatively rapidly-developing flash drought, which developed in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from mid-summer on. However, the rains may be too much of a good thing in these areas and they could trigger flash flooding.
Texas Flood Threat: 6 Things You Should Know
http://www.weather.com/news/news/southern-plains-flood-threat-texas-6-things-to-know (http://www.weather.com/news/news/southern-plains-flood-threat-texas-6-things-to-know)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 27, 2015, 05:13:44 PM
While Hurricane Patricia did not create as much damage as initially fears (for reasons including: i. it spun-up so fast it did not have time to build a large storm surge, ii. its eyewall was small and missed the most populated areas and iii. the evacuation plan worked relatively well) thus letting policy makers off the hook (for now); in my opinion it is still a clear example of the increasingly frequent strong storms that James Hansen has repeatedly warned about, as for example per the linked article it might have been classified as a Cat 7 event if the scale extended that far:

http://www.carbonbrief.org/hurricane-patricia-the-role-of-el-nino-climate-change-and-good-fortune/ (http://www.carbonbrief.org/hurricane-patricia-the-role-of-el-nino-climate-change-and-good-fortune/)

Extract: "At her peak, Patricia’s winds reached an unprecedented 200mph. This is a long way above the threshold of 156mph that classifies a hurricane as Category 5 – the highest possible rating. Some scientists were saying Patricia would have been Category 7, if the scale extended that far.
Low air pressure in the core – a measure of storm strength – bottomed out at 879 millibars, making Patricia, officially, the most powerful hurricane ever measured in the western hemisphere."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 28, 2015, 06:44:59 PM
The Pacific Ocean is certainly not peaceful, these days.

Quote
@EricHolthaus: Watch a textbook, photogenic case of bombogenesis… in two storms at exactly the same time!
https://t.co/oYcD0imeMO (https://t.co/oYcD0imeMO) https://t.co/ZYtZvSY980 (https://t.co/ZYtZvSY980)

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/659388177711415296 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/659388177711415296)

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/27/bombogenesis_as_two_photogenic_storms_strengthen_in_the_pacific.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/27/bombogenesis_as_two_photogenic_storms_strengthen_in_the_pacific.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2015, 11:42:55 PM
Cyclone Chapala Could Bring Eight Years Worth of Rain to Yemen and Oman
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/29/cyclone_chapala_to_bring_record_breaking_rain_to_yemen_and_oman.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/29/cyclone_chapala_to_bring_record_breaking_rain_to_yemen_and_oman.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 29, 2015, 11:50:28 PM
Quote
@EricHolthaus: Hand analysis in Oman this week as #Chapala nears. Every meteorologist knows how to do this! https://t.co/pSitYv7eXl

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/659856113416847360 
 
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Theta on October 29, 2015, 11:50:44 PM
Cyclone Chapala Could Bring Eight Years Worth of Rain to Yemen and Oman
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/29/cyclone_chapala_to_bring_record_breaking_rain_to_yemen_and_oman.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/10/29/cyclone_chapala_to_bring_record_breaking_rain_to_yemen_and_oman.html)

That's scary...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 31, 2015, 12:45:41 AM
Quote
@weatherchannel: Preliminary daily rainfall total of 14.53 inches at Austin-Bergstrom, #Texas is more than 15X higher than the previous record (0.96"/1992)

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/660238882374590465

Quote
Blanco River at Wimberley, TX forecast to crest above 31ft. Since 1920s gauge has topped 30ft twice: May 1929 & 2015

https://twitter.com/stevebowenwx/status/660136757950853120
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 31, 2015, 03:01:00 AM
Texas: the rain continues.  To be clear, this is a different system than last weekend with the remnants of Hurricane Patricia.  And, another heavy rain event is forecast for the end of next week!

Deadly Floods, Possible Tornadoes Strike Texas as Storm Sweeps Through
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/possible-tornadoes-damage-buildings-across-south-texas-officials-n454441 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/possible-tornadoes-damage-buildings-across-south-texas-officials-n454441)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2015, 09:23:43 AM
The linked article indicates that Atacama Desert in Chile is experiencing its greatest bloom of flowers ever reported due to this years El Nino:

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1030/Why-are-lush-carpets-of-flowers-thriving-in-the-driest-place-on-earth (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/2015/1030/Why-are-lush-carpets-of-flowers-thriving-in-the-driest-place-on-earth)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on October 31, 2015, 04:35:15 PM
The following is an update on how rapidly Tropical Cyclone Chapala is intensifying (it is now a Cat 4 event and the second strongest such storm on record for the Arabian Sea).  The first image shows the record SST in the Arabian Sea, the second image shows the storm track indicating likely flooding in Yemen & Oman; and the third image shows that the spin-up of this intense storm is coincident with a very strong MJO in the same area:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/2nd-strongest-storm-in-arabian-sea-history-extraordinary-chapala-hits (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/2nd-strongest-storm-in-arabian-sea-history-extraordinary-chapala-hits)

Extract: "Tropical Cyclone Chapala took advantage of the warmest waters ever recorded in the Arabian Sea at this time of year to put on a remarkable burst of rapid intensification overnight. Chapala topped out for the time being as a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds (1-minute average) at 2 am EDT Friday, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 02, 2015, 12:56:11 AM
Quote
@EricHolthaus: Here's the strange, current view of Earth right now:
Cyclone #Chapala bearing down on Yemen.
https://t.co/F9mXWqmhjy https://t.co/3TvfOwOawU

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/660905805324005376
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 02, 2015, 05:27:44 PM
The most recent Robert Scribbler article focuses on Cyclone Chapala, and indicates just how extreme of a weather event that it is (fueled by atypically warm ocean surface waters that are likely related to climate change).  The attached image shows that the latest storm track shows Chapala hitting Yemen today:

http://robertscribbler.com/ (http://robertscribbler.com/)

Extract: "After a rapid bombification on Friday, Cyclone Chapala became the most intense storm on record to form so far south in the Indian Ocean. Like Patricia, this storm gathered strength in waters that were much hotter than normal (+1 to +2 C above average for the region). Like Patricia, the storm rapidly intensified in a single 24 hour period — gaining 90 mph of wind intensity in just one day. And like the 5 billion dollar weather event that was Patricia, Chapala threatens severe damage along its likely land-falling path. A hothouse storm for a hothouse world that in 2015 has seen the previous record for the rate of formation of the most intense tropical cyclones shattered by five storms so far this year. The previous record, set in 2004 was for 18 such storms over a one year period. Now, the new record is 23 and counting.
Chapala is expected to track west-by-northwest, weakening to a category 1 or 2 storm just before making landfall in Yemen on Monday. At that point the storm is predicted to dump as much as 12 to 16 inches of rain over parts of Yemen. If this happens as current weather models predict, parts of Yemen which typically receive less than 2 inches of rain per year may see as much as 8 years or more worth of rain fall over the course of a day or two."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: OrganicSu on November 02, 2015, 06:15:49 PM
An Ice Flash Flood in Saudi Arabia? I honestly thought it was some sort of April 1 joke and the video a hoax. Youtube had a couple of other/different videos so seems genuine.
[url]https://www.rt.com/news/320455-ice-flood-saudi-arabia/[url]
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 02, 2015, 10:19:39 PM
An Ice Flash Flood in Saudi Arabia? I honestly thought it was some sort of April 1 joke and the video a hoax. Youtube had a couple of other/different videos so seems genuine.
https://www.rt.com/news/320455-ice-flood-saudi-arabia/ (https://www.rt.com/news/320455-ice-flood-saudi-arabia/)

The ice is massive amounts of hail, created by water freezing at altitude inside strong updrafts in intense rainstorms.  This is occasionally seen in western U.S. states during summer heat, too.

Here's an example in Colorado last August.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/11/video-hail-infused-storm-floods-colorado-towns-sweeps-away-cars/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/08/11/video-hail-infused-storm-floods-colorado-towns-sweeps-away-cars/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jmo on November 03, 2015, 12:25:02 AM
And over in Oz, ABC news Australia filled with headline articles about weather/climate related issues....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-03/dehydration-death-worry-for-top-end-crocs-due-to-el-nino/6906390 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-03/dehydration-death-worry-for-top-end-crocs-due-to-el-nino/6906390)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-02/orangutans-forced-out-of-habitat-by-indonesian-peat-blaze/6906156 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-02/orangutans-forced-out-of-habitat-by-indonesian-peat-blaze/6906156)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-03/cyclone-ravages-yemeni-island-killing-at-least-three-people/6907044 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-03/cyclone-ravages-yemeni-island-killing-at-least-three-people/6907044)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 06:46:11 PM
Cyclone Chapala dumps years' worth of rain in Yemen, causing extensive damage.
Article and videos.
Quote
The first hurricane ever to hit Yemen in recorded history arrived early Tuesday morning when Tropical Cyclone Chapala hit the city of Mukallah, bringing with it unprecedented flooding in an area already suffering from a war-related humanitarian crisis.

The storm may have already dumped a decades' worth of rainfall in some parts of this arid nation.

http://mashable.com/2015/11/03/cyclone-chapala-yemen/ (http://mashable.com/2015/11/03/cyclone-chapala-yemen/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on November 07, 2015, 09:09:04 PM
Looking at the different climatology pages on Wetteronline it occurred to me that warm anomalies are quite abundant. So I put these first week of November mean temp graphs together:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FClimate%25202015%2FBoreal%2520warmth%2520small_zpsyqnkc3ey.jpg&hash=118645d986591844365375041a5dcb2a)

That makes a nice overview, doesn’t it? I could speculate on this for a while. But I leave it to speak for itself.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Chuck Yokota on November 08, 2015, 02:34:11 AM
An unprecedented second tropical cyclone is headed for Yemen, a week after Cyclone Chapala.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/rare-cyclone-bears-beleaguered-yemen-megh-socotra-weather-151107221838657.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/rare-cyclone-bears-beleaguered-yemen-megh-socotra-weather-151107221838657.html)
Quote
Locals on Yemen's beleaguered Socotra Island have taken emergency shelter for the second time in a week as yet another tropical cyclone tracks towards them packing potentially devastating winds and rain.

Cyclone Megh, which formed in the Arabian Sea earlier in the week, appears set to hit Socotra directly on Sunday morning as it travels west towards the Yemeni mainland.

It comes hot on the heels of Cyclone Chapala, which killed a number of people and caused widespread damage a week ago as it brushed past Socotra on a similar path from the Arabian Sea.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 08, 2015, 04:56:34 AM
That's freakin crazy!

No cyclone for nearly 100 years, then two in a week!!

Does anyone need any more evidence that there have been some fundamental shifts in the basic workings of the planetary climactic system??
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 08, 2015, 11:23:06 AM
The linked reference presents a summary of a special issue on weather and climate extremes (see also a link at the end of this post to the other references in that special issue):

John E. Hay , David Easterling, Kristie L. Ebi, Akio Kitoh & Martin Parry (2015), "Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes", Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.11.002


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300463 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300463)


Abstract: "Weather and climate extremes affect every facet of society-economies, environments and cultures. As a result, policy makers, planners, decision makers and other stakeholders are increasingly seeking information on the nature of such extreme events on time scales from hours to days, to seasons and to decades.

This Special Issue has presented a combination of original research and assessments of earlier work in relation to weather and climate extremes. The papers covered two major themes: (i) detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, as well as projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales; and (ii) examples of the impacts and other consequences of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events, as well as policy implications and practical applications.

The papers in this Special Issue have shown the nature of the scientific and related challenges, the progress made to date, and the challenges, opportunities and constraints yet to be addressed. They have contributed to increased understanding of where, how and why such events manifest themselves, now and into the future. Such insights increase the capacity to manage the risks associated with these events, and thereby reduce the consequences that society might otherwise have suffered."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 04:23:34 PM
That's freakin crazy!

No cyclone for nearly 100 years, then two in a week!!

Does anyone need any more evidence that there have been some fundamental shifts in the basic workings of the planetary climactic system??

 Indeed.   +1
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 04:34:53 PM
Omega Block!  Record heat in Paris, right before the climate conference....

Quote
A dangerous pattern of long-term heat is setting up over Europe this week, and forecast models suggest it could stretch beyond the weekend. Temperatures are running up to 30 degrees above average and long-term heat records are falling in the U.K and France.

The unusual aspect of this heatwave is not only how early it’s coming — heat of this magnitude is more typical later in the summer — but how long it seems likely to last.

England experienced its hottest July day on record Wednesday as the temperature at London Heathrow soared to 98.1 degrees (36.7 Celsius) according to the U.K. Met Office, breaking the previous record set in 2006.

Several locations across France established their hottest temperature ever recorded in any month. In Paris, the mercury surged to 103.5 degrees (39.7 Celsius) on Wednesday afternoon, which is the second highest temperature the city has ever recorded, according to Meteo-France.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/30/europe-is-just-beginning-a-sweltering-multi-day-heatwave-this-is-whats-behind-it/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/30/europe-is-just-beginning-a-sweltering-multi-day-heatwave-this-is-whats-behind-it/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 05:14:17 PM
Quote
@billmckibben: Megh, in Yemen, is 28th Cat 3 or stronger cyclone/hurricane in N. Hem. this season--the old record was 20. #hotnewworld H/t @philklotzbach

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/663372035507273728
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on November 08, 2015, 05:15:25 PM
Yes the summer was pretty hot in Central Europe... Here's the current anomaly map for the latest week, still somewhat over averages: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan1.png (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan1.png)

Oops, the link updates, 1-7.11.2015 is pretty high yes.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on November 08, 2015, 05:32:44 PM
For the daily CET record in England, which goes back to 1772, the 6th was a record warm daily average, the 7th equaled the record warmest. The next 3 days (9th to 11th) all have the potential to set new daily records too.

All the daily data undergo revisions after the end of the months, so these records may change.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 10, 2015, 03:00:02 AM
Per the attached 63 million mid-west American may be subjected to severe storm activity this week:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2015/1109/Severe-storm-warning-for-63-million-Americans-this-week (http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2015/1109/Severe-storm-warning-for-63-million-Americans-this-week)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2015, 02:47:41 AM
Spring Will Come Three Weeks Early in 2100 in U.S. Thanks to Climate Change
http://www.newsweek.com/early-spring-shorter-winter-thanks-climate-change-382968 (http://www.newsweek.com/early-spring-shorter-winter-thanks-climate-change-382968)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2015, 02:18:08 PM
Flurry of Hawaiian Hurricanes Shows Climate Fingerprints
Quote
“The odds of a year like 2014 are going up,” Vecchi said. “Our assessment is that in the 1800s, the odds of years like 2014 was substantially lower than it is now. So the fraction of attributable risk is something around 90 percent.”
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hawaiian-hurricanes-climate-19656 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hawaiian-hurricanes-climate-19656)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on November 11, 2015, 02:28:05 PM
In the Central England Temperature (CET) series, the minimum temperature for today (13.2C) is higher than the record high daily mean for today (13.0C) which was set in 2004. Pretty remarkable if it remains after quality control at the end of the month
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on November 11, 2015, 06:28:42 PM
In the Central England Temperature (CET) series, the minimum temperature for today (13.2C) is higher than the record high daily mean for today (13.0C) which was set in 2004. Pretty remarkable

That reminds me of March 21st, 2012, in Marquette, Michigan (USA).  The old RECORD HIGH for that day was 49 degrees F.  But that day....the LOW FOR THE DAY was 52 degrees F, which was HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 49.  The new record high for that day, was 81 degrees F, which was 32 degrees warmer than the prior record high.

And just think....we have "booked" weird stuff like this for the next 30 years or more.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2015, 07:07:14 PM
The linked Robert Scribbler articles discusses reasons why we can expect more weird weather this coming boreal winter:

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/10/more-weather-weirding-godzilla-el-nino-vs-a-mean-polar-amplification/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/10/more-weather-weirding-godzilla-el-nino-vs-a-mean-polar-amplification/)

Extract: "Why is this temperature anomaly pattern so darn weird? It all has to do with atmospheric physics. During times of strong El Ninos, the temperature difference between the poles and the Equator tends to increase as the Equator warms. This, in turn, strengthens the Jet Stream. A strong Jet Stream, for its part, tends to keep cold air locked away at the poles. So, ironically, as the Equator warms with El Nino, the poles have a tendency to cool off a bit.
So far, for the Fall of 2015, this isn’t really what we’ve seen. Sure, the Equator has warmed up quite a bit. Concordantly, the Jet Stream appears to have strengthened somewhat. We still have a big ridge that tends to keep forming over the ridiculously and persistently warm Northeastern Pacific, but it’s not stretching all the way into the Arctic like it did last year. Meanwhile, Jet Stream velocities and related storm track intensities are hitting rather high values. Arctic Oscillation has also recently hit extremely high positive values. A strongly positive Arctic Oscillation traditionally tends to result in cold air remaining locked away in the Arctic, but considering the temperature anomaly maps, Arctic cold hasn’t really been all that cold of late.
….
All in all, this pattern points to more and more weather weirding on tap for this Winter. Jet Streams and storm tracks may run further to the north as a result — especially in the areas of the Pacific Northwest and in Northern Europe. Troughs may also tend to dig a bit deeper along the Central and Eastern US and on out into the North Atlantic. This is not exactly the forecast we would expect with such a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation. But the related cool air pool has retreated so far north as to, at least for now, not fully result in a strong El Nino + strong Arctic Oscillation related weather pattern. Instead, for now, what we are seeing is a weird kind of hybrid weather pattern that appears to be incorporating the influences of a Monster El Nino, of ongoing polar amplification, of the cool pool in the North Atlantic, of the abnormally warm Barents Sea, and of the Hot Blob still firmly entrenched in the Northeastern Pacific."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2015, 10:29:59 PM
As is a follow-up on my Reply #859, the attached image and linked article indicates severe Thunder Storm Warnings for much of the US Mid-west:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/11/winter-storm-blasts-colorado-threatens-midwest/75568302/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/11/winter-storm-blasts-colorado-threatens-midwest/75568302/)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jbatteen on November 12, 2015, 06:16:23 AM
A very unusual Fall season unfolding in Minnesota and surrounding areas.  We have yet to have a hard freeze in Northfield, about 45 miles south of Minneapolis.  There are still flowers around.  The trees have lost their leaves but the understory is still green.  I've never seen anything like it this late in the year.

From November 9th
http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/balmy-again-tuesday-tracking-wednesdays-soaker/ (http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/balmy-again-tuesday-tracking-wednesdays-soaker/)
Quote
    62 degrees: high temperature at MSP Airport Monday afternoon
    45 degrees: average high for November 9
    +17 degrees vs. average Monday
    +11.5 degrees vs. average so far this November at MSP Airport
    November 18: average date of first 1-inch snowfall at MSP Airport

From November 4th:
http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/november-lite-early-whispers-of-el-nino/ (http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/november-lite-early-whispers-of-el-nino/)
Quote
Today brings another day of unseasonably mild temperatures across Minnesota as our weather pattern continues to scream September.

A November reality check arrives late tomorrow with the next cold front. The longer range forecast whispers El Nino as we stare as a murky (and mild?) December forecast through the long range weather lens in a few weeks.

Expect increasing shots of seasonably cold air, punctuated by more warm fronts ahead.

    +13.3 degrees – temps at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport vs. average so far this November
    2008 – last time we saw 70s in November at MSP
    1975 – last time we saw three days in the 70s in November at MSP

The other weather shoe is never too far away this time of year at 45 degrees north latitude. Our next cold front sweeps across Minnesota Thursday with scattered rain and a clap of thunder. Brisk northwest winds behind the advancing front plunge temperatures back to near average Friday and Saturday.

Yes, our cold fronts are barely average this fall. The next warm front arrives with a breezy Sunday. Temps pushing back into the mid and upper 50s are still a good 10 degrees warmer than average for Nov. 8-9.

Whispers of El Nino already here?

With each passing mild day turned mild week, shades of El Nino begin to weave a tapestry that could become a trend in Minnesota this winter. The Twin Cities National Weather Service agrees with my weather eye, seeing upper air patterns that look suspiciously El Nino.

As I put together my winter forecast this week, I still think El Nino will be the dominant player in our winter weather overall. All of the medium range guidance screams mild.

The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer project brings yet anther blob of unseasonably mild air across the Midwest next week.

NOAA’s experimental three-week temperature forecast product keeps a mild bias overall for most of the United States through November. Cool in the southwest and mild across the northern U.S.? If it quacks like an El Nino duck.

The raw model output continues to favor temps much above average into late November. Highs in the 50s, and even 60 degrees leading up to a potentially brown Thanksgiving?

Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: wili on November 12, 2015, 04:39:43 PM
Good points.

I've lost track now of the number of times on a 60 something degree day (that should have been 40s or colder) that I said, "Well, this is surely going to be the last day this warm till spring comes!" only to have it get that warm again in a few days.

(Right now, though, I can't complain much, since my furnace went out a few days ago, and it will be a few more days till it's replaced.)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on November 12, 2015, 06:57:39 PM
Looks like the long term forecast for the upper Midwest over the next few months is for more mild weather.

Here's a link to a graph of New Record Highs....to New Record Lows for November in the US.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to.html)

Now...we're only 9 days into the month on this graph....so things can certainly change.  BUT....November is off to a "toasty" start.

Two other things to note:  The number of new record high MINIMUM's (ie new "record high lows")is twice that of new record high MAXIMUM's.  In other words.....it isn't cooling off nearly as much at night.  What warmth there is....is hanging around over night.

And below is a graph BY YEAR of the ratio of new record highs to new record lows in the US.  It looks like 2016 (next year) has a good probability of blowing away the temperature record that we will likely set this year in the US:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_30.html (http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_30.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 12, 2015, 10:20:49 PM
Hurricane Kate formed unusually far north and west over unusually warm Atlantic waters; remnants to join first named UK winter storm: Abigail
 Severe Weather Threatens Midwest U.S.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-kate-races-across-atlantic-severe-weather-threatens-midwest (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-kate-races-across-atlantic-severe-weather-threatens-midwest)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bluesky on November 13, 2015, 12:25:26 AM
last weekend was such an unusual freak weather in France according to French metoffice (meteofrance)Saturday 7th despite a cloudy sky Samedi many November monthly record were broken :  Paris (21,6°C), Rennes (21,4°C), Rouen (20,1°C), Mulhouse (24,3°C), Troyes (22,6°C), Annecy (21,3°C), Chamonix (21,1°C), Clermont-Ferrand (24,6°C), Mende (21,2°C), Brive-la-Gaillarde (25,6°C), Agen (25,4°C), par exemple. Many of the previous record were very recent (all saints 2015 or 2014)
Biarritz (27.8C) and Dax (28.1) and Bordeaux (26.7C) beat their record by more than 1C
At  Mulhouse (Alsace), the former record 21,3°C dated back 7 novembre 1955.  It was beaten 3 times in 4 days. the 5th (21,8°C), the 7th (24,3°C) the 8th (23,5°C). At  Biscarrosse (Landes), the former record 1 novembre 1999 (24,4°C) was beaten the 6 at 25,7°C, then the 8th at 27,7°C !

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/30543730-douceur-inedite-sur-le-pays-ce-week-end (http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/30543730-douceur-inedite-sur-le-pays-ce-week-end)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on November 13, 2015, 12:59:22 AM
In the Austrian town where I live the November temperature record was broken a couple of days ago and now stands at 24.4 °C. Apparently because of atmospheric blocking over Central Europe:

Quote
Stabile Hochdruck-Wetterlagen über Mitteleuropa kommen im Herbst in vielen Jahren vor. Die aktuelle Wettersituation hat aber einige Besonderheiten, erklärt Podesser: „Ungewöhnlich ist, dass diese stabile Wetterlage mit rund drei Wochen sehr lange hält. Noch ungewöhnlicher ist, dass es selbst in den typischen Nebelregionen sonnig ist. Denn die Luft ist extrem trocken."

'It's unusual for the weather to remain stable like this for three weeks'.

Our PV solar installation has been producing electricity like crazy, already having produced more KwH than all of November last year.  :o
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: ghoti on November 13, 2015, 02:33:48 AM
November this year here is much warmer than October was - feels very odd.

Did you have snow last year? That seems to be the deciding factor for this time of year for my system. Also so far things seem to average out over the course of the year - had a huge July followed by marginal August and Sept. Only have 2 full years to go by though but with all the ups and downs the total annual production ended up pretty close.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 02:02:07 PM
It seems trees have declared a war on humans.  Can't blame them.

Storm Damage Prompts State of Emergency in Washington
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/storm-damage-prompts-state-emergency-washington-n466136 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/storm-damage-prompts-state-emergency-washington-n466136)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 04:50:12 PM
Record power outages after windstorm hits Spokane, killing 2
Quote
A brutal storm packing near hurricane-force winds slammed into the Inland Northwest late Tuesday afternoon, toppling hundreds of trees that killed two women in Spokane, blowing off roofs, grounding airplanes and causing record numbers of power outages.

As the storm hit, winds were so strong that emergency-management leaders in Spokane County asked all residents to take shelter where they were.

One woman was killed by a falling tree near the 1500 block of West 14th Avenue on the South Hill. Another woman was killed when a tree fell on a car 5 miles east of Cheney on state Highway 904.

More than 206,000 customers lost power. Avista officials said it will take days to restore it all.

Spokane roads and neighborhoods were choked with downed trees and blinded by power outages.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/record-power-outages-after-71-mph-windstorm-pummels-spokane-killing-2/ (http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/record-power-outages-after-71-mph-windstorm-pummels-spokane-killing-2/)

Solar Roadways (yes, they are still hard at work developing improved panels, at lower cost) comments that "this week's storm caused the worst outages in utility company Avista's 126-year history."
(Click on the Solar Roadways icon in this link to go to their Facebook page.)
https://www.facebook.com/solarroadways/posts/10153042081392126:0 (https://www.facebook.com/solarroadways/posts/10153042081392126:0)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 05:02:05 PM
Lack of snow costing millions of dollars, forcing production location and schedule changes, in the Hollywood film industry.
https://www.thewrap.com/global-warming-sparks-hollywood-production-meltdown/ (https://www.thewrap.com/global-warming-sparks-hollywood-production-meltdown/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 22, 2015, 03:14:56 PM
Human-caused changes in climate played a role in 14 of 28 storms, droughts, and other 2014 extreme weather events investigated by global scientists.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151105-climate-weather-disasters-drought-storms/ (http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151105-climate-weather-disasters-drought-storms/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: bligh8 on November 23, 2015, 08:19:07 PM
Since record keeping began in 1966 Hurricane Catarina was the only Hurricane to develop in the
South Atlantic and occurred in March 2004.  The link to agw was unclear, citing more research
needed to be done.

From within the linked article:
 
“Casualty and Damage Statistics
According to the State of Santa Catarina Civil Defense (information available at the site www., in an area with approximately 400,000 inhabitants and 154,000 buildings, 23 cities were severely damaged.
Over 33,000 people lost their homes and 40,000 buildings were severely damaged. Roof damage in some cities reached about 95% of the houses. Four persons lost their lives and 7 people disappeared in small boats along the coast. Agriculture damage reached about US$40 million mostly in rice fields (25%), corn (90%) and banana (70%), with 25, 90 and 70%, respectively, production loss in the area affected by the storm. A large number of industries were affected (approximately 1800) and their activities were interrupted for up to a month. Approximately 8600 people lost their jobs as a result of the damages in the industrial and commercial sectors. Roads were blocked and had to be repaved. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, just to the south of Santa Catarina, was also hit by severe winds. About 31,000 people were affected in Rio Grande do Sul along the northern coast and 4500 houses were damaged. A total of about 80% of the schools interrupted classes for up to 15 days.”

http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/document/Topic_2a_Pedro_Silva_Dias.pdf (http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/document/Topic_2a_Pedro_Silva_Dias.pdf)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2015, 12:55:28 AM
The linked article cites a new UN report indicating the extreme weather events are now occurring at almost twice the frequency of two decades ago:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/us-climatechange-disasters-idINKBN0TC1EG20151123 (http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/us-climatechange-disasters-idINKBN0TC1EG20151123)

Extract: "Weather-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves have occurred almost daily in the past decade, almost twice as often as two decades ago, with Asia being the hardest hit region, a U.N. report said on Monday."

See also:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52627#.VlPba_mrSUk (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52627#.VlPba_mrSUk)

Extract: "A new report issued today by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) shows that over the last 20 years, 90 per cent of major disasters have been caused by 6,457 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 25, 2015, 03:00:17 AM
U.S.:  A very late tropical cyclone plus an early ice event is leading to a potentially bizarre holiday weekend weather potpourri.

Bizarre Thanksgiving Weekend: Ice Storm and a Hurricane
Quote
There have been only three other eastern Pacific storms of record dating to 1949 that formed later in the season than Sandra did on November 24. Sandra is the latest storm in the eastern Pacific since Hurricane Winnie was a December oddball in 1983.
...
Seeing the potential for Sandra to still be a tropical depression early Saturday as little as 500 miles away from an area of freezing rain is a cool, weather geeky factoid you can share either while trying to keep your relatives awake after Thanksgiving dinner or while standing in a long line on Black Friday.

And, by the way, if you think hurricanes can't feed into winter storms, remember Superstorm Sandy's wintry side just over three years ago?
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/ice-storm-tropical-storm-hurricane-sandra-thanksgiving-black-friday-2015 (http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/ice-storm-tropical-storm-hurricane-sandra-thanksgiving-black-friday-2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 25, 2015, 02:10:44 PM
Weather disasters occurred almost daily over last decade, UN says
Floods and heatwaves frequency almost double in two decades, but scientists say ‘jury is out’ on how much is due to climate change.
Quote
While geophysical causes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis often grab the headlines, they only make up one in 10 of the disasters trawled from a database defined by the impact.

The report, called The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters, found there were an average of 335 weather-related disasters annually between 2005 and August this year, up 14% from 1995-2004 and almost twice as many as in the years from 1985 to 1994.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/23/weather-disasters-occurred-almost-daily-over-last-decade-un-says (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/23/weather-disasters-occurred-almost-daily-over-last-decade-un-says)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 26, 2015, 08:19:25 PM
Remarkable Hurricane Sandra exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight.   Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific or the Atlantic.  Sandra is the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving Day.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/an-unprecedented-thanksgiving-visitor-a-category-4-hurricane (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/an-unprecedented-thanksgiving-visitor-a-category-4-hurricane)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 03, 2015, 09:54:46 PM
India army on war footing to rescue survivors as flood toll nears 270
Quote
CHENNAI, India, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The Indian military evacuated more than 2,000 residents stranded in the southern state of Tamil Nadu on Thursday as the death toll from flooding rose to 269 after the heaviest cloudburst in over a century.

Forecasts of more rain over the next 48 hours forced the army to work on a war footing to rescue survivors trapped in inundated parts of Chennai.

India's fourth most populous city saw only slight rains on Thursday, but water levels had not receded since a day earlier, when a massive release of water from a brimming reservoir swamped low-lying areas of the city.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has blamed climate change for the deluge, travelled to Chennai to get a first-hand view of a rescue effort that has so far been halting.
...
The cloudburst earlier this week dumped as much as 345 mm (14 inches) of rain over 24 hours.
http://www.trust.org/item/20151203083236-g6fw0/ (http://www.trust.org/item/20151203083236-g6fw0/)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/southern-india-major-flooding_565f3d5ce4b08e945fedb130 (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/southern-india-major-flooding_565f3d5ce4b08e945fedb130)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 09:12:22 PM
More:
Southern India Is Hit With Deadly Flooding After Wettest December Day In 100 Years
Quote
Extreme rainfall in southern India has killed nearly 270 people and displaced about a million more, as flooding causes major problems in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu and fourth-most-populous city in India, experienced its wettest December day in over a century this week, according to AccuWeather. That follows a November that brought the city 300 percent more rain than is usual for the month. Monsoon winds typically bring rainfall to Chennai during October, November, and December, but rainfall this year has been exceptional — the city and surrounding region has gotten more than 11 inches of rainfall over the last several days, which, as the LA Times reports, is about 75 percent of the average for the whole monsoon season.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/04/3728251/chennai-flooding/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/04/3728251/chennai-flooding/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 01:26:20 AM
This Is the Longest Buffalo [New York] Has Gone Without Measurable Snow
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/el-nino-means-buffalo-can-t-find-enough-snow-to-measure-anywhere (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-04/el-nino-means-buffalo-can-t-find-enough-snow-to-measure-anywhere)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on December 05, 2015, 01:12:30 PM
A pretty serious flooding situation unfolding in western Ireland and northern England.

Red warnings have been issues both the British Met Office and Met Eireann. Flooding already occurring in many area, with up to 100mm of rain expected to fall still up to tomorrow morning. Last I've heard, some villages are being evacuated in northern England.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 02:17:46 PM
South Indian floods kill hospital patients, but rains ease
Quote
Flood waters that had started to recede began rising again around noon after a new cloudburst that sent residents running for shelter under trees and in shopfronts. Parts of the flat, coastal city remained under as much as eight feet (2.5 meters) of water for a fourth day.

Many residents have spent days stranded on rooftops since more than 345 mm (14 inches) of rain fell over 24 hours on Dec. 1, the most since the British ruled the city in Tamil Nadu state, then known as Madras, 100 years ago.
http://www.trust.org/item/20151204080738-yvbus/ (http://www.trust.org/item/20151204080738-yvbus/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 02:23:06 PM
In Ireland, more than 2,000 homes expected to be without power overnight after a month’s rainfall fell in just under 36 hours.

Storm Desmond: flood warnings issued across UK and Ireland
Met Office forecasts heavy rain and high winds in Scotland, northern areas of England and Wales
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/05/flood-warnings-issued-across-uk-and-ireland-as-storm-desmond-arrives (http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/05/flood-warnings-issued-across-uk-and-ireland-as-storm-desmond-arrives)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 02:28:10 PM
96-hour forecast shows a turbulent Atlantic Ocean with multiple strong storms.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 06:38:13 PM
Durham police: 'Move possessions upstairs'

LIVE:  Storm Desmond hits UK
This page automatically updates:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-35015243 (http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-35015243)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 06:45:24 PM
Pacific Storm Parade to Lash Northwest With Flooding Rain, Mountain Snow Into Next Week
Quote
This is a pattern that was noticeably, largely absent last fall, winter and spring along the West Coast. Blocking high pressure aloft diverted the jet stream away from the U.S. West Coast last season, leading to the record-paltry Cascades and Sierra spring snowpack.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015 (http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 06:55:45 PM
Precipitable Water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain. As a depth, the precipitable water is measured in millimeters or inches.

Quote
@NWSOPC: CIRA layered PW helps visualize #AtmosphericRiver; easy to see AR stretching from the Caribbean to Ireland/UK! #GRPG https://t.co/AdwbLsyyIi

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/673164464687071233
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 05, 2015, 08:36:28 PM
Quote
The 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific basins ended on November 30, according to the meteorological calendar. It was a year that brought many storms that defied usual expectations and destroyed parts of the record books.

The Atlantic was quieter than usual, the second year in a row with below-average storm activity. Meanwhile, hurricanes and cyclones in 2015 menaced regions that do not usually see them: the central Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea (northwest Indian Ocean). The entirety of the Pacific Ocean, from Asia to the Americas was teeming with El Niño-influenced storms.

Thirty major hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones occurred in the northern hemisphere in 2015; the previous record was 23 (set in 2004). Twenty-five of those storms reached category 4 or 5, well beyond the previous record of 18.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87092 (http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87092)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on December 06, 2015, 09:01:38 AM
Folk in the North of England are made of pretty stern stuff. Just look how the kids in Cumbria responded to Desmond, the latest 100 year storm to hit the Lake District...... Six years after the last one!

Watch what's going on behind the lads on the bikes:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0aAQ81bktto



Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2015, 02:47:57 PM
These comments from the last 24 hours pretty much say it all about the increasingly severe weather and the cost of climate change:

-----
Forecaster Phil Avery explains Storm Desmond's path

We talk about hurricanes and the eye of the storm - the centre of Storm Desmond never came very close to us. Yesterday it was to the east of Iceland and it's continued on that eastward journey. What we have is a trailing front, with a lot of warm moist air ahead of that, which has just brought rain into Cumbria and parts of southern Scotland and northern England.

------
About 55,000 homes in Lancaster are without power this morning after an electricity substation was flooded in last night's heavy rain.

According to the BBC's Emma Stanley, Electricity North West said flood defences upgraded five years ago to cope with a "one-in-a-hundred years flood" were breached late last night.

---------
@EllisButcher: The cost of the #CumbriaFloods of 2009 was put at £276M. I'd say we will be well over that. Record breaking rain, river levels & damage.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: johnm33 on December 06, 2015, 11:17:58 PM
That north western area of England/western Scotland has no useful aquifers, its either keep it in a lake/reservoir or lose it. So the lakes are kept full and can rapidly overflow. With 340mm rain and no way to delay the runoff floods are almost as inevitable as water shortages would be if the reservoirs were kept empty to cope with these events.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2015, 09:33:00 PM
Storm Desmond rainfall partly due to climate change, scientists conclude
Quote
Manmade climate change was partly responsible for Storm Desmond’s torrential rain which devastated parts of Scotland, the Lake District and Northern Ireland, scientists have concluded.

The researchers at Oxford University and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) calculated that climate change had made the flooding event 40% more likely, with the estimate of the increased likelihood ranging between 5% and 80%.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/11/storm-desmond-rainfall-flooding-partly-due-to-climate-change-scientists-conclude (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/11/storm-desmond-rainfall-flooding-partly-due-to-climate-change-scientists-conclude)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2015, 01:14:00 AM
Quote
If #NonaPH hits the Philippines it will mark the first time the country has been hit by a cyclone in every month of a year #climatechange

https://twitter.com/ptmitchell/status/676015893344727040
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2015, 01:29:35 PM
Typhoon Melor Slams the Philippines, Sends 725,000 Fleeing
Quote
MANILA, Philippines — About 725,000 people fled their homes and communities braced for coastal floods of up to 13 feet as Typhoon Melor slammed into the eastern Philippines on Monday, officials said.

The government's weather bureau said the typhoon was packing winds of 95 miles per hour with gusts of up to 115 mph, and heavy to intense rain within its 185-mile diameter.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/typhoon-melor-slams-philippines-sends-725-000-fleeing-n479396 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/typhoon-melor-slams-philippines-sends-725-000-fleeing-n479396)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on December 19, 2015, 12:11:40 PM
An article by John Mason at Skeptical Science on Storm Desmond:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/december-2015-uk-floods.html (http://www.skepticalscience.com/december-2015-uk-floods.html)

Quote
On December 4th-5th 2015, the Atlantic was dominated by a huge low pressure system with a deep centre of around 940 millibars situated over Iceland. A second low at 987 millibars was situated several hundred miles off Newfoundland. The resultant Warm Conveyor to the south of these big extratropical cyclones stretched across the Atlantic, from well to the south-west of the Azores right up to NW Europe. Within the warm conveyor, an Atmospheric River piled head-on into Ireland, Northern England and Wales. Rain started to fall over the Cumbrian mountains on the evening of the 4th. By the evening of the 5th, the UK 24-hour rainfall record had been smashed, with 341 mm (13.42 inches) of rain falling at Honister and 322 mm (12.67 inches) at Thirlmere, where an event-total over two days of 405 mm (15.94 inches) was also recorded – a 48-hour UK record.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.skepticalscience.com%2F%2Fpics%2Fpooley-bridge.jpg&hash=40f7598e70d16b168415cc747b882b31)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 19, 2015, 08:19:46 PM
40°C is 104°F;  25°C is 77°F.

'Climate change at work' as Adelaide swelters through another hot night
Quote
Adelaide's ongoing severe heatwave is a first for this time of year and the "sort of signal you will see with climate change", a Bureau of Meteorology head says.

South Australia acting regional director John Nairn said Adelaide had never experienced a sequence of four 40 degree Celsius days during December.

The city sweltered through another hot night last night, with the mercury dropping to only 25C by about 6:30am.

Temperatures peaked in the city at 41C on Wednesday, with maximums forecast to be above 40C for the next three days.

Today's maximum is forecast at 42C with minimum temperatures predicted to fall to 26C overnight.

"It is an unusual event," Mr Nairn said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-17/climate-change-at-work-in-adelaide/7035926 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-17/climate-change-at-work-in-adelaide/7035926)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: mati on December 20, 2015, 02:01:48 AM
avalanche on svalbard kills one during major storm:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35144236 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35144236)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 20, 2015, 04:43:07 AM
I almost wrote about the presumed causal snowstorm of that avalanche, but the article quoted someone as saying it was biggest storm in 30 years.  A few hours ago I thought "30-year storm" isn't too weird. 

But thinking about it again, I wonder if any snowstorm today should be considered 'wierd'.  (OK, it still snows at high latitudes in the winter (and high elevations everywhere).  And will for the rest of my life.)

Yesterday Buffalo, NY had it first snow (0.1 inch or more) of the year (edit) season, about 2 weeks later than the previous record set in 1899.  But this isn't particularly weird, given global warming and the very strong El Nino.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 20, 2015, 02:08:27 PM
More on the Buffalo snow and the unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S..

Buffalo Gets First Snow, Smashes Record for Longest Time Without Any by Two Weeks
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/buffalo-gets-first-snow-smashes-record-longest-time-without-any-n483156 (http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/buffalo-gets-first-snow-smashes-record-longest-time-without-any-n483156)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 20, 2015, 02:13:39 PM
Common Thread at 2015 AGU Conference: The Big Melt

- Lots of red on the Arctic Report Card
- More than polar bears at risk
- The big shift from snow to rain in Western mountains
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/common-thread-at-2015-agu-conference--the-big-melt (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/common-thread-at-2015-agu-conference--the-big-melt)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on December 21, 2015, 06:42:07 AM
My SIL sent this 'springlike' pic from Holland today:

Meanwhile things are warming up here in NZ:

"the hot air was coming across the Tasman Sea, following scorching weather in Australia where temperatures had climbed above 40°C in Melbourne and Adelaide.
"It does cool a bit as it's coming across the sea and gets some moisture, and then as it comes over New Zealand, it dries out on the ranges, especially in the South Island ... and on the eastern side, then we get these really warm northwesterly winds."and
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/32-7c-in-dunedin-record-temperatures-hit-scorching-south-island (https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/32-7c-in-dunedin-record-temperatures-hit-scorching-south-island)
We're expecting 30+'C here tomorrow, a bit much when we don't have aircon (not v common in NZ homes). A shady tree & cold beer seems like a good plan...

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 21, 2015, 02:54:54 PM
A forecast high in Chicago of 59F and rainy on my 60th birthday, December 23.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 21, 2015, 03:05:27 PM
This is not cool.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: P-maker on December 21, 2015, 03:43:35 PM
Sleepy,

It seems as if you have run into the same problem as our Australian friends had last year. You propably have to ask SMHI to extend the scale to accomodate the future climate.

Happy Green Christmas

P

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 21, 2015, 05:24:50 PM
P-maker, thanks.

Yeah, I suggested that in February (on a Swedish blog) when we ran out of colors as well.

And oh, I'll try to mowe my lawn tomorrow, as I won't have time on Christmas Eve. We will also have a green new years eve. And the rest of January by the look of things now...

Merry Christmas!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on December 21, 2015, 08:14:53 PM
Here in NW England, I mowed mine yesterday. Not sure if it was the last cut of Autumn or the first cut of Spring!

Happy Holidays!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on December 21, 2015, 09:55:58 PM
Thanks, Silkman,
Your garden pic is representative for the situation in the Netherlands, too.

I combined the Wetteronline anomaly maps like I did in November:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FTemp%2520anomaly%25201912%2520N%2520Hemisphere%2520small_zpsmbkvdn3w.jpg&hash=97621e9e32e66e59fb5aad43ae147ec6)

Difference is that this is almost three weeks out in December, as the November pic was based only on the first week.
I'd say the situation has settled even stronger now, especially over Eastern Russia, Mid-Siberia and Kazakhstan. Only around Bering Strait winter seems to finally get a grip.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on December 22, 2015, 04:00:09 AM
Doubly weird:

Yesterday Christchurch NZ broke its December temp record with 36'C, now it is currently (mid-afternoon here) at a max of 9.8'?
 :o

A southerly wind change did it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 22, 2015, 06:30:59 AM
Thanks silkman, nice lawn!

Normally there are big differences between the rest of Europe and Scandinavia. I've lived more than a half century here and never had the thought of mowing my lawn in December, but now there are people here having fresh potatoes for Christmas, so why not.

WSI's seasonal forecast for Europe from yesterday confimes my own speculations above, unfortunately.
http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe (http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe)
Quote
January•Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal
•UK* - Near normal
•Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal

•February:•Nordic Region - Colder than normal
•UK - Near-normal to slightly colder than normal
•Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

•March:•Nordic Region - Slightly warmer than normal
•UK - Near normal
•Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

Another weird thing is that after a large El Nino, Scandinavia should normally see colder than normal and less precipitation than normal. Now there's only a hint of that in February, and we are not there yet.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on December 22, 2015, 08:33:31 AM
Sleepy

I've mowed that lawn since 1983 and until recently the last cut was end Oct and the first in late March.

Not much sign of change in the medium term forecast either if the ECMWF is to be believed. Here's New Year's Eve. More rain in the Lakes and no snow in the Alps. A snowless Davos in January might help the Economic Forum get the message.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on December 22, 2015, 09:11:11 AM
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 22, 2015, 12:34:15 PM
Just do it, Neven. My worms were not hibernating. Little lumps of dirt all over the lawn. :)

Here's a small part of my green green grass of home from today. I left a part at the top of the picture for comparison. It's certainly not pretty. Really wet and soggy because it rained tonight, but the sun did show up at the horizon during the morning.

It was a weird experience mowing the lawn this close to Christmas. A sad one really.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 22, 2015, 02:07:42 PM
Sleepy

I've mowed that lawn since 1983 and until recently the last cut was end Oct and the first in late March.

Not much sign of change in the medium term forecast either if the ECMWF is to be believed. Here's New Year's Eve. More rain in the Lakes and no snow in the Alps. A snowless Davos in January might help the Economic Forum get the message.

Sorry, I didn't notice your comment. Maybe the last cut is early October here, I have never mowed my lawn in March so would say early April.

The Economic Forum might just appreciate the lack of snow. Hmm.
I which they would have listened in 1981. I know I didn't. :(
Hansen wasn't alarmistic at all. The rest of that old Science paper is here:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~davidc/ATMS211/articles_optional/Hansen81_CO2_Impact.pdf (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~davidc/ATMS211/articles_optional/Hansen81_CO2_Impact.pdf)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2015, 02:36:13 PM
Gary Szatkowski, NWS meteorologist for the Philadelphia region:

Quote
Looking for last minute gift ideas for your meteorologist? I think we need a new temperature scale. Broke this one.

https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/679288335974735872
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 22, 2015, 03:29:45 PM
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.

We are periodically getting rain in the upper Midwest (I live in Chicago.) but the weather in between what is mainly light rains is bizarre. We have been stuck in a high humidity, very low wind weather pattern for most of the last 6 weeks. Gray overcast skies rule and fog is almost a daily occurrence. I often feel as if I am walking in a cloud. The dew points are usually only a couple of degrees over the current temperature.

It has caused me to speculate whether tracking dew points would reveal some rather subtle but spectacular changes in the atmosphere. Wouldn't this give an idea of the atmospheric moisture load. I would imagine that dew points are rising and this cannot be good as water vapor is yet another greenhouse gas. I actually think this is what is driving the abnormally war winters in the Arctic.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sebastian on December 22, 2015, 03:40:43 PM
Germany's wetteronline.de reports that for the monthly average for Germany, they expect December to be 1.3 degrees warmer than the warmest December on record (which was at 4.8° C). The expected average equates to a warm March or cool April.

Source (in German):
http://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker?postId=post_5492410 (http://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker?postId=post_5492410)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on December 22, 2015, 06:34:27 PM
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.

We are periodically getting rain in the upper Midwest (I live in Chicago.) but the weather in between what is mainly light rains is bizarre. We have been stuck in a high humidity, very low wind weather pattern for most of the last 6 weeks. Gray overcast skies rule and fog is almost a daily occurrence. I often feel as if I am walking in a cloud. The dew points are usually only a couple of degrees over the current temperature.

Yes, exactly the same thing here. Very moist, but still cold at night and in the morning (around freezing point). The result is that I need to dry the corners of all the windows in the house, especially those on the west and north sides, every morning. Mind you, it's new house, passive house standard, so really well insulated, triple glazing, etc.

But if it's -2 °C outside, 19-20 °C inside, and the relative humidity in the house is 70-75% (I can't get it out because it's so moist outside), the corners of my windows will have a temperature of around 12 °C, which means water droplets will start to condense on the glass there (see German dew point spreadsheet below).

It didn't happen when we moved in last January, because there was snow and -10 °C outside, meaning rel. hum. in the house was 55%.

It's really annoying and we hope this won't be a recurring thing. Blood El Niño.  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: P-maker on December 22, 2015, 08:51:10 PM
It has indeed been a weird second half year. To my mind we are now seeing the first signs of a coming equable climate – meaning many more days with drizzle all over the place.

In the old days, you had to go to extreme maritime locations – such as the Faeroe Islands or western Ireland - in order to have lengthy episodes of drizzle.

Since summer solstice, we have here in Denmark seen an incredible number of drizzle episodes. Days on end with grey skies and relentless fine droplets soaking everything in a wet misty mess.

The WMO has a complete section on Drizzle in their synoptic code:

Quote
Drizzle
50 -- intermittent light drizzle
51 -- continuous light drizzle
52 -- intermittent moderate drizzle
53 -- continuous moderate drizzle
54 -- intermittent heavy drizzle
55 -- continuous heavy drizzle
56 -- light freezing drizzle
57 -- moderate to heavy freezing drizzle
58 -- light drizzle and rain
59 -- moderate to heavy drizzle and rain”

It would be interesting to see an up-to-date analysis of this parameter for a number of representative stations (if there are any manual observing stations left out there).

My guess is that as we move towards an ice-free Arctic Ocean, we will see widespread drizzle become the dominant way for our atmosphere to get rid of excess moisture over the mid-latitudes from GHG-forced evaporation over the subtropics.

High humidity has come to stay Neven, so better figure out a clever way to dry your windows before they rot away.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Neven on December 22, 2015, 09:57:12 PM
High humidity has come to stay Neven, so better figure out a clever way to dry your windows before they rot away.

Working on it.  :)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 23, 2015, 03:30:33 AM
From the National Weather Service - Mount Holly (Philadelphia region) forecast discussion:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2015, 12:11:07 AM
Nature in state of confusion as Europe heat continues
Flowers start to bloom and hibernating animals keep fattening up as winter struggles to set in across northern Europe.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/nature-state-confusion-europe-heat-continues-151222104608676.html (http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/nature-state-confusion-europe-heat-continues-151222104608676.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on December 24, 2015, 01:34:10 AM
The LOW expected tomorrow in New York City (at Central Park) is supposed to be HIGHER than the soon-to-be OLD RECORD HIGH (set in 1996).  Supposed to be in the low 70's for a high....

What global warming?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 24, 2015, 05:26:16 AM
If I only planned a little bit better, I could have placed wood anemones, cowslips and wild strawberries together with fresh/new potatoes on our dinnertable today.
What a smashing Christmas Eve, even our temperature anomalies are Christmascozy'ish!
I had to clean our entrace yesterday and this morning, that bloody dog dragged in tons of freshly cut grass.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 24, 2015, 08:56:48 AM
Midsummer celebrations in Skövde.
Mid(winter)summer at the Boulognerlake, in the Boulognerforest in Skövde.
https://skovdenyheter.solidtango.com/video/midsommarfirande-i-jultid

Ending with a nice dip in the lake. Normally we dip bread into the stock from the Christmas ham today. Now we can do both! :)

Edit; adding some more pictures from the festivities.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on December 24, 2015, 11:28:25 AM
Based on the spectacular data trove accessible to all, issued by NCEP-NCAR, I´ve been exercising a lot during the past years on the effects of climate change.
Though I haven´t done much this year, I took the opportunity for  a snap moment to do some comparisons this morning.
First, the easy part, temp anomaly in what I call ´winter power´, a comparison of 45% of this years´ winter against the last three full winters (1 Oct / 31 Mar):
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FWinter%2520Power%2520comparison%2520small_zpsk9zoyn39.jpg&hash=d3dd3ba59a8802e4ca83568b2d68b6f3)
On the way to the top warmest Arctic winters in the satellite data era, although the Baffin Bay could present some surprises.
Then I watch 500Mb geopotential height. It always nicely reveals the planetary waves. Some years ago, I was looking for clues on the possible demise of the Ferrel (mid-latitude) cell and wave-supported transmission of heat to the Arctic.
Well, there’s something to see here, very steadfast ridging and troughing, underpinning why it is that warm around Eastern N America, Europe and Russia.
So I thought it might be interesting to compare the 500Mb situation for Oct and Nov to that during the last strong El Nino year, ’97:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F500Mb%2520Geo%25202015-1997%2520Oct%2520to%2520Nov_zpsjeigjn0z.jpg&hash=8488167319268549de28d127df0dc9a6)
That’s nice, you can see how the anomaly difference heaps up against the polar front in this global picture.
Maybe even clearer through focusing on the Poles:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F500Mb%2520Geo%25202015-1997%2520Oct%2520to%2520Nov%2520NH_zps8pnpl81o.jpg&hash=9eed732d5c14b19e23381076956e1ee8)
In the North. PS December data show the ‘Greenland trough’ even more pronounced between N American and European ridges.
A little to my surprise (as the Antarctic usually shows opposing effects), the pattern is clear in the South, too:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2F500Mb%2520Geo%25202015-1997%2520Oct%2520to%2520Nov%2520SH_zps8x18ds8g.jpg&hash=7a090f534cedfbe86287d875093f0fb9)
And so, now it’s time to hold breath and wait for the end of winter to see if this lasts.
Given the strength of the pattern, I doubt very much this will flip over into widespread wintry weather anywhere on the Northern Hemisphere. Maybe a couple of weeks with snow over here in the Netherlands. Nothing remotely near getting my skates out of the storage.
To end this with a reminder quoted a lot some seasons ago; “the heat will come to haunt us”, I wish you all a good Christmas with your families and friends! Let’s enjoy what good is still around…
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2015, 09:45:57 PM
Eric Holthaus: "Wowwwww. Some areas were 40-50 degrees warmer than normal this morning. Never seen anomalies like this before."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/680109481884172288 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/680109481884172288)


http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/24/east_coast_weather_is_freakishly_warm_this_christmas_eve.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/24/east_coast_weather_is_freakishly_warm_this_christmas_eve.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 26, 2015, 05:49:19 PM
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, about the central U.S. weather:

Quote
The weather map is sick! #severe #tornado #blizzard #flood. Working 'em all @NWSSPC [today].
https://twitter.com/gcarbin/status/680767617091678212


Radar/Warnings image is from Weather Underground's Storm app.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2015, 12:08:55 AM
Again! UK flooding, worse than two weeks ago.

Hundreds flee their homes as swaths of northern England are submerged
• Met Office issues two highest-level red weather warnings
• Rescue services called to around 350 incidents in Lancashire
• Severe flood warning in place for Leeds city centre
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/26/hundreds-flee-their-homes-as-englands-north-is-submerged (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/26/hundreds-flee-their-homes-as-englands-north-is-submerged)


UK floods: Homes evacuated amid heavy rain
Quote
Heavy rain has caused more flooding in northern England, with homes evacuated in Lancashire and Yorkshire, and rivers overflowing in Manchester and Leeds.

Damage has included the destruction of a former pub in Greater Manchester, and a large hole has appeared in the M62.

Met Office warnings of further rainfall are in place for northern England, Scotland and Wales.
Hundreds of flood alerts and warnings have been issued - more than 30 of them severe, meaning danger to life.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35181139 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35181139)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on December 27, 2015, 10:26:27 AM
Climatereanalyzer.org is forecasting temperatures above freezing at the North Pole on December 30 at 1200.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpamola.um.maine.edu%2Ffcst_frames%2FGFS-025deg%2FARC-LEA%2FT2%2F28.png&hash=1d41e3975f39c6efa6409be4f20d2b83)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Clare on December 27, 2015, 10:33:48 PM
Well they dont mention this temp at the North Pole but summarise the rest here:

Lashed by nature's extremes
9:26 AM Monday Dec 28,
The holidays have got off to a difficult start with wild weather in Australia, the Americas and Britain

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11566732 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11566732)

El Nino gets a mention but maybe I missed any mention of CC.

Clare
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 28, 2015, 02:44:10 AM
Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Quote
(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane] temperature anomaly in the range of 4 degrees Celsius above average by January 3rd of 2016. Note the broad regions over Northern Canada, Siberia, and the Arctic Ocean that are predicted to experience temperatures in the range of 20 degrees Celsius above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 baseline readings. For some areas — particularly in Northern Canada — this will mean near or even above freezing temperatures for tundra and permafrost zones in the depths of Winter. A set of conditions that has serious implications for permafrost thaw and related carbon store feedbacks. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 28, 2015, 04:43:16 AM
UK floods:  Filming over a flood gate as water rises in York
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35187038 (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35187038)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 28, 2015, 06:16:57 AM
Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Quote
(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane] temperature anomaly in the range of 4 degrees Celsius above average by January 3rd of 2016. Note the broad regions over Northern Canada, Siberia, and the Arctic Ocean that are predicted to experience temperatures in the range of 20 degrees Celsius above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 baseline readings. For some areas — particularly in Northern Canada — this will mean near or even above freezing temperatures for tundra and permafrost zones in the depths of Winter. A set of conditions that has serious implications for permafrost thaw and related carbon store feedbacks. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/)

An important note to add to that article, we should start to see the effects of the current El Nino, on the weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, during January.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: John Batteen on December 28, 2015, 10:04:24 PM
We've been seeing it for months already, at least in North America.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 28, 2015, 11:35:27 PM
Flooding in the central U.S. from the current system may surpass the Great Flood of 1993.

Historic and unseasonable flooding overwhelms Central U.S., Mississippi River
Quote
In some locations, forecasts are calling for record or near-record crests over the next few days as rainwater across a large area of the South and Midwest drains into tributaries that feed into the Mississippi River.

Near Chester, Ill., the Mississippi River is forecast to crest at 49.8 feet, which would set a new record for the location, surpassing the old record of 49.7 feet which was set during the Great Flood of 1993. That flood was the second-worst flooding disaster since the Great Flood of 1927, and in some locations became the worst flooding disaster on record. Damage totals for the Great Flood of 1993 topped $15 billion.

However, this week’s flooding isn’t truly put into perspective until you consider that nearly all of the historic crests along the Mississippi have occurred during the spring melting season or the summer rainy months. Wintertime flooding to this extent is typically not possible simply because there is usually not enough moisture in cold, winter air to support such incredible rainfall totals.

In Chester, only a single wintertime flood has made it into the top 10 crests on record — 39.71 feet on Dec. 9, 1982. Not coincidentally, December of 1982 was also right in the middle of the strongest El Niño on record at the time.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/28/historic-and-unseasonable-river-flooding-overwhelms-central-u-s-mississippi-river/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/28/historic-and-unseasonable-river-flooding-overwhelms-central-u-s-mississippi-river/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: GeoffBeacon on December 29, 2015, 05:59:29 AM
I'm now marooned in my 1st floor flat in York - since Saturday night. Not serious: I can wade out if I put shorts on but it will be a bit mucky. Other people aren't so lucky – but, of course, still better than Syrian refugees.

(Related tweet: Cameron criticised for #yorkfloods http://ow.ly/Wp2MJ (http://ow.ly/Wp2MJ) --- but @IslamicReliefUK welcomed http://ow.ly/WpbTN (http://ow.ly/WpbTN))


GUARDIAN

The Guardian came and reported (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/28/unruffled-yorkshire-spirit-dominates-anger-too-flooded-homes):

'Beacon [that's me] blamed not the Environment Agency, but climate change – or, more accurately, the humans who cause the planet to warm. “To stop this happening, really we need to stop eating beef, driving cars and building buildings out of steel and concrete,' he bellowed from his first floor perch."

No doubt I was a bit pompous and the reporter clearly wanted an ordinary 'vox pops' but does the "bellowed-from-his-first-floor-perch” put-down mean even the Guardian shies away from any hints that we must drastically change our way of life?

BBC

The BBC are still dragging their feet. Yesterday morning the BBC World Service Newsday (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03b2mg7) 6.06 GMT had a piece “Weather Wreaks Havoc in US and Britain”. Oddly the presenter says its 8.15 GMT at 8.30 into the recording then continues:
Quote
Now there's a number of extreme weather stories  from right aroound the world some scientists are talking of the effect of the climate phenomenon  known as El Nino where heated water unusually heated water in the pacific ocean ends up causing extreme weather patterns around the globe

In the southern United States more than 40 people are known to have died to the severe weather..

...parts of Latin America are seeing tremendous droughts and parts are seeing the worst flooding seen in 50 years.More than 150,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes...In the UK

...highest river levels ever recorded in parts of Yorkshire...
No mention of climate change.

But the World Service World Have Your Say (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p03b2mp2) at 16.06 GMT put the weird weather down to climate change (not global warming - remember there are record colder days too!) in conjunction with natural variations and an enormous El Nino. (Start at 27.00 in the recording)

But I thought the unfortunate weatherman was having a hard time following the BBC party line, which is to minimise the issue for political reasons. He ended saying
Quote
“So,er, yes, without (delving?) too far into a very very difficult political situation some might say that the writing is there on the wall if you believe it and you're prepared to read it.

He sounded worried to me. I hope he hasn't got a wife and family to support!

THE INDEPENDENT

@climatehawk1 has just tweeted this story in the Independent
I'm trapped in my home thanks to the flooding, why can't anyone admit that this is climate change? (http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/im-trapped-in-my-home-thanks-to-the-flooding-why-cant-anyone-admit-that-this-is-climate-change-a6787621.html)


Why indeed.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on December 29, 2015, 08:12:20 AM
We've been seeing it for months already, at least in North America.
NA is of course much more directly affected than northern Europe, but there's more to come.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67482.html#msg67482 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67482.html#msg67482)

I'll add a small animation from nullschool with the 250hpa layer.
Click to start.

Edit; I'll add this as well as it's a far more worthier read than my meager English.
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation)
And specifically regarding the normal atmospheric response to an El Nino.
Quote
The atmospheric response to El Niño is strongest in the months January-March and it will be interesting to see how closely the atmospheric response projects onto forecasts derived from a strong El Niño.   But at least as if on cue, the models are predicting a strong southerly Jet Stream across the Southern United States.  Another key feature in the North Pacific basin is the very warm waters in the eastern North Pacific and the north central North Pacific. It will be interesting to see if yet once again the warm temperatures in the eastern North Pacific can couple with atmospheric ridging, which is now predicted for early to mid-January.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: tombond on December 29, 2015, 08:35:30 AM
The increased regular flooding in northern England is one example of the adaptation required to the changing climate caused by human activity.

Where human habitation occurs on floodplains it is necessary to control the flow of water by the construction of many small upstream reservoirs which capture the initial flood water then releases the water slowly through a small diameter pipe over say 4 or 5 days reducing the height of peak flooding.

The land on which the reservoirs are constructed can still be used for farming for most of the time and the water ponding for a few days causes little damage to the pasture.

I worked on a small project similar to this in Western Australia where I live.  The project took ten years to complete because while the sun was shining and there was no flooding it was always the first project to have its funding deferred.



Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on December 29, 2015, 03:03:47 PM
Hi Tombond!

 Here in the Calder Valley we have two huge areas set aside for flood alleviation holding mind boggling amounts of water when full.

 They kept them closed on Christmas day even though we had started seeing flooding as they knew Saturdays rain would be substantial.

They opened the flood alleviation in Todmorden at 6.a.m. and our flood sirens sounded at 7.15a.m. Over that hour all the excess was taken up and still allowed the river, which can flood above 2.1m, to smash the 2012 record floods of 4.85m by another 0.84m by 3pm saturday.

I do not know what else could be done to help after 3 decades of flood alleviation schemes have been put into place?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: tombond on December 29, 2015, 03:54:45 PM
Gray-Wolf

Sorry to hear about the floods in your area and hope you personally were not severely effected.

That is the issue with a changing climate and increased flooding events, flood mitigation measures need to be constantly upgraded. 

Before the increased flooding events actually occur it is very difficult to obtain any government funding for additional speculative flood mitigation measures.

In my case we have the opposite problem, the flood measures are now installed but the climate is drying out, 25% rainfall reduction over the past 40 years and it now seems unlikely they will ever be used.

Wildfires are now the biggest issue with houses lost on a regular basis.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: silkman on December 29, 2015, 06:09:45 PM
Current temperature at Longyearbyen Airport as reported by Weather Underground is 6C:

"Longyear Airport
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
                          Actual       Average   Record
Temperature   
Mean Temperature   3 °C      
Max Temperature   6 °C         -9 °C         3 °C (2004)
Min Temperature   0 °C"
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 29, 2015, 08:14:37 PM
Per the linked article the severe storm that recent left North America is headed towards the Arctic and will likely deliver large amounts of heat north of Russia (see un-associated images):

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html)

Extract: "Taken together, the fires, floods, heat waves, tornadoes, and blizzards are surely strange, even unsettling—but the scariest weather of the year is still on the way.
As it departs North America this week, the storm will rapidly intensify over the northern reaches of the Gulf Stream and draw tremendous amounts of warm air northward from Spain and the Mediterranean Sea toward the Arctic. As the storm approaches Iceland, it will have strengthened to the equivalent of some of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in terms of atmospheric pressure. Intensely high pressure over western Russia, perhaps boosted by melting sea ice, will aid in setting up the tropics-to-pole atmospheric superhighway.
Unlike other recent episodes of extreme weather around the planet, this storm is probably not related to El Niño, which has limited influence in Europe."

Edit: I have added two Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Maps to show that the low pressure is currently between 946 & 947 hPa.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 29, 2015, 09:34:58 PM
As a follow-on to my last post I present the following information for Dec 29 2015:
The first image shows the Earth Surface Wind & TPW (Total Precipitable Water) Map, and the second image shows the Earth Surface Wind and Surface Temperature Map (note that green indicates above freezing temperatures).  Combined these images indicate that the current storm is driving rain well north of Greenland.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 29, 2015, 11:55:38 PM
Now that I think about it I realize that in addition to today's storm (Hurricane Frank) off the coasts of Ireland & Iceland, the following Earth Surface Wind & Temperature Maps for Dec 30 and 31 2015 and Jan 1 and 2, 2016, respectively, show that two more strong storms will follow the Gulf Stream across the Atlantic, which will continue driving warm air into the Barents Sea for some days to come.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 30, 2015, 12:45:22 AM
Robert Scribbler says that Frank will reach a low of 920 hPa before running into Iceland. While the attached Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map shows the central pressure is currently 941 hPa.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/)

Extract: "The impacts of this storm, which the UK Met Office is now calling Frank, could well be tremendous. Cumbria in Northern England may be set to experience yet another ‘worst flood on record’ — one of three occurring just this month. And the 920 mb range central low of this sprawling system is forecast to rip through the heart of Iceland itself. But the more visible risk of damages to England and Iceland may well pale in comparison to the quiet, yet drastic impacts taking place in the far north.

There, over the Arctic sea ice today, the rains began in winter time.

As the first front of warm air proceeded over the ice pack to the north of Svalbard, the rains fell through 35-40 degree (F) air temperatures. It splattered upon Arctic Ocean ice that rarely even sees rain during summer-time. Its soft pitter-patter a whisper that may well be the sound to mark the end of a geological age.

For we just don’t see rain over Arctic sea ice north of Greenland during Winter time. Or we used to not. But the warmth that liquid water falling through the black of what should be a bone-cold polar night represents something ominous.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Theta on December 30, 2015, 01:51:13 AM
Robert Scribbler says that Frank will reach a low of 920 hPa before running into Iceland. While the attached Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map shows the central pressure is currently 941 hPa.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/)

Extract: "The impacts of this storm, which the UK Met Office is now calling Frank, could well be tremendous. Cumbria in Northern England may be set to experience yet another ‘worst flood on record’ — one of three occurring just this month. And the 920 mb range central low of this sprawling system is forecast to rip through the heart of Iceland itself. But the more visible risk of damages to England and Iceland may well pale in comparison to the quiet, yet drastic impacts taking place in the far north.

There, over the Arctic sea ice today, the rains began in winter time.

As the first front of warm air proceeded over the ice pack to the north of Svalbard, the rains fell through 35-40 degree (F) air temperatures. It splattered upon Arctic Ocean ice that rarely even sees rain during summer-time. Its soft pitter-patter a whisper that may well be the sound to mark the end of a geological age.

For we just don’t see rain over Arctic sea ice north of Greenland during Winter time. Or we used to not. But the warmth that liquid water falling through the black of what should be a bone-cold polar night represents something ominous.

Constant storms globally, I guess with the end of the Holocene, it is also the end of stable weather conditions
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 30, 2015, 02:02:22 AM
The Scariest Part of This Season’s Weird Weather Is Coming Soon
Tornadoes, floods, and a heat wave at the North Pole.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: pikaia on December 30, 2015, 01:22:08 PM
Wendy house blown over as Storm Frank rips through Plymouth.

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Wendy-house-blown-Storm-Frank-rips-Plymouth/story-28439502-detail/story.html?%3F%3F556 (http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/Wendy-house-blown-Storm-Frank-rips-Plymouth/story-28439502-detail/story.html?%3F%3F556)

 ;D ;D ;D
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 30, 2015, 06:04:23 PM
Per the attached Earth Surface Wind and TCW (total cloud water) and Surface Temperature, respectively, Maps projected for Jan 3 2015; it will be raining on the sea ice very close to the North Pole then, so it will be interesting to see how fast the sea ice retreats in this area in the middle of winter:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 30, 2015, 07:05:42 PM
For what it is worth, the attached ClimateReanalyzer forecast of surface temperatures for today, Dec 30 2015, shows that the surface of the sea ice at the North Pole should be melting today:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 30, 2015, 09:15:43 PM
As the waters rise in York, the canals of Venice run dry
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/as-the-waters-rise-in-york-the-canals-of-venice-run-dry-a6788576.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/as-the-waters-rise-in-york-the-canals-of-venice-run-dry-a6788576.html)

Video: http://www.nbcnews.com/video/freak-low-water-levels-in-venice-italy-cause-problems-593347651990 (http://www.nbcnews.com/video/freak-low-water-levels-in-venice-italy-cause-problems-593347651990)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: sidd on December 31, 2015, 12:47:09 AM
Thans for the water content maps. Will be raining on south greenland soon, if not now.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2015, 07:16:08 PM
U.S.: Mississippi River and others expected to make record crests, flooding towns around St. Louis
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/31/us/weather-river-flooding/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/31/us/weather-river-flooding/index.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 31, 2015, 07:52:36 PM
Arctic Buoy temperature readings.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on December 31, 2015, 08:47:15 PM
I guess this is COUNTER to the thought of "hell freezing over"... ::)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Theta on December 31, 2015, 08:50:50 PM
I guess this is COUNTER to the thought of "hell freezing over"... ::)

But hey, at least there's more traffic here since the refereeze season DoD something exciting
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: werther on January 01, 2016, 10:13:23 PM
According to the Dutch weather service, KNMI, mean temp December 2015 beat the former warmest Dec month, 1974, with a stunning margin of 2,2 dC (on a record dating back to the year 1706) . It produced a mean temp even higher than that common during spring month April.
PS I welcomed the first flowering hyacinths in my garden today. Famous bulb garden Keukenhof might be a mess this coming spring!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2016, 03:01:21 AM
Freakish weather from the North Pole to South America
Quote
Thousands of miles south, in the center of Latin America, downpours fueled by the Pacific Ocean’s giant El Niño pattern have drenched regions of Paraguay, Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay.

In what’s described as the worst flooding in a half-century, more than 160,000 people have fled their homes. The Paraguay River in that nation is within inches of topping its banks, and the Uruguay River in Argentina is 46 feet above normal, according to a BBC News report.
...
Yet after decades of studying and analyzing global weather extremes, [Dr. Jeff] Masters thinks the shift is obvious. “This isn’t the climate I grew up with,” he said. “We didn’t see this kind of weather in the 20th century. It’s just a continuation of the crazy weather we’ve seen over the course of the 21st century so far.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/freakish-weather-runs-from-top-of-the-world-to-the-bottom/2015/12/30/61203efa-af2c-11e5-b711-1998289ffcea_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/freakish-weather-runs-from-top-of-the-world-to-the-bottom/2015/12/30/61203efa-af2c-11e5-b711-1998289ffcea_story.html)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2016, 02:30:34 PM
In the U.S.:
Quote
December's second long and record-shattering mild spell, which peaked during Christmas Week, helped numerous cities shatter their record warmest December.

More than 2,000 record daily highs and more than 2,000 record-warm daily lows were tied or broken during the final nine days of 2015, beginning Dec. 23. Despite being just a few days past the winter solstice, dozens of all-time December record highs were set, and more than 200 record-warm lows for any December day were also tied or broken.

Coupled with another prominent warm spell prior to Christmas week, hundreds of cities from the Plains to the East Coast shattered their warmest December on record.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/christmas-week-forecast-warm-east (http://www.weather.com/forecast/national/news/christmas-week-forecast-warm-east)


The warmest Christmas Eve the East Coast has ever seen is shattering records
http://mashable.com/2015/12/24/record-warm-christmas-temp-tracker/ (http://mashable.com/2015/12/24/record-warm-christmas-temp-tracker/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2016, 03:06:03 PM
New York Metro Weather gives a technical discussion of the massive change about to happen in the NH atmosphere, as the arctic cold currently bottled up near the pole faces a major disruption.
Quote
Thousands of miles away, forecast models are in great agreement that over the next few days, a tremendously anomalous ridge will develop through the Kara Sea. This ridge will quickly become the most dominant feature on the globe, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It’s strength and presence will change the global circulations around it — and also force a disruption to the lower levels of the stratosphere.

Research on height records in the Kara sea during the months of December, January, and February shows that the GEFS are forecasting this ridge to be the strongest ever during this time period — by a fairly wide margin. Only a few years come remotely close to the strength of the forecasted ridge and heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be a catalyst in setting off changes to the mid level atmospheric pattern.

As it develops, it will push northwestward toward the higher latitudes near the Pole, aiding in the development of some high latitude blocking. When juxtaposed with a ridge on the Western part of North America (which we will discuss shortly) it helps disrupt the polar vortex which had previously, for much of December, been quite stout and centralized.

https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/ (https://www.nymetroweather.com/2015/12/29/warmth-on-borrowed-time-as-january-pa/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 02, 2016, 03:13:59 PM
Markedly anomalous....

Anomalies are departures from the 1981-2010 daily base period means. (See key on right side of image.)
Current 30-day loop:  http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 02, 2016, 06:23:14 PM
The first DMI plot of temperatures north of 80 degrees north show that thru Dec 31 2015 Arctic temperatures have been anomalously high.

The second CCI-Reanalyzer 5-day forecast for the Arctic issued Jan 2, 2016, indicates that Arctic temperatures should remain anomalously high for another 5-days.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 03, 2016, 06:00:52 PM
If their forecast holds, then the two attached images by the nullschool of the Earth 1000-hPa Wind and TCW (total cloud water), and Temperature (note green is above freezing), maps, respectively; indicate that rain could possibly occur in southern Greenland on January 7 2016, in the middle of the NH winter.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jdallen on January 04, 2016, 08:27:04 AM
New York Metro Weather gives a technical discussion of the massive change about to happen in the NH atmosphere, as the arctic cold currently bottled up near the pole faces a major disruption.
Quote
Thousands of miles away, forecast models are in great agreement that over the next few days, a tremendously anomalous ridge will develop through the Kara Sea. This ridge will quickly become the most dominant feature on the globe, especially in the mid levels of the atmosphere. It’s strength and presence will change the global circulations around it — and also force a disruption to the lower levels of the stratosphere.

Research on height records in the Kara sea during the months of December, January, and February shows that the GEFS are forecasting this ridge to be the strongest ever during this time period — by a fairly wide margin. Only a few years come remotely close to the strength of the forecasted ridge and heights in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This ridge will be a catalyst in setting off changes to the mid level atmospheric pattern.

As it develops, it will push northwestward toward the higher latitudes near the Pole, aiding in the development of some high latitude blocking. When juxtaposed with a ridge on the Western part of North America (which we will discuss shortly) it helps disrupt the polar vortex which had previously, for much of December, been quite stout and centralized.


I'm not seeing evidence of this... YET, but will keep an eye out for it.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 04, 2016, 07:07:02 PM
Many of my recent posts in this thread have focused on the extremely high weather related temperatures in the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic; see also the following two linked articles discuss possible links between the current strong El Nino and the North Atlantic extreme weather:

http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/04/climate-change-and-el-nino-locked-in-tempestuous-embrace-teleconnection-between-hot-equatorial-pacific-and-north-atlantic-cool-pool/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/04/climate-change-and-el-nino-locked-in-tempestuous-embrace-teleconnection-between-hot-equatorial-pacific-and-north-atlantic-cool-pool/)

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/27/uk-floods-and-extreme-global-weather-linked-to-el-nino-and-climate-change)

However, the attached Nullschool Earth 1000-hPa Wind & Temperature forecast for Jan 8 2016 indicates that the strong El Nino event is also advecting large amounts of atmospheric heat to the coastal areas of the West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula (note that green indicates above freezing temperatures at 1000-hPa elevation [near the surface], which will result in surface ice melt, which is unusual even in the austral summer):
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2016, 01:23:25 AM
Quote
Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: magnamentis on January 06, 2016, 11:13:53 AM
Quote
Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2016, 03:11:14 PM
Quote
Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.

The map shows the difference between the forecast average temperature and the historical average temperature. 

For example, I found a forecast average temperature for Helsinki, Finland for Friday of about -14°C.  Whereas the historical average temperature for Helsinki for January 8 is about -3°C.  The forecast abnormality is thus about 11°C lower than normal, or -11°C.

Looking at Madrid, Spain:  Forecast for Friday is about 11°C, whereas the normal would be about 5°C.  A forecast of a 6° abnormality in the warmer (positive) direction, or +6°, indicated on the map by orange colors.

The temperature data I found with a quick Google search may not match the map data exactly, but the trend shown is the same. 


You are correct that this is only one day's weather.  However, this abnormality is noteworthy because, as modeled, the degree of expected temperature variance is so unusual and unexpected that it is "off the scale."  Climate Reanalyzer 5-day average also shows an extremely cold temperature anomaly (departure from average) in Scandinavia -- about as cold a departure from average as the map can show....
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: magnamentis on January 06, 2016, 06:19:20 PM
Quote
Michael Bentrice:  Jeez! It's going to be so cold SE Scandi/E Europe this Friday that our maps cannot shade the anomaly! -20C+

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/684488025456381952

something must be wrong with this map because the anomalies show i.e. -23C whereas the forecast temps for friday for that (and all other ) regions on this map rather correspond with the numbers show as anomalies. so if the temp is for example -23 it cannot be 23C below normal because by no means is the normal january temp in finland 0C.  to me the temps shown as anomalies seem to be totally normal while daily anomalies do not have much meaning since daily temps are mostly due to weather patterns and come in go within days or even hours.

The map shows the difference between the forecast average temperature and the historical average temperature. 

For example, I found a forecast average temperature for Helsinki, Finland for Friday of about -14°C.  Whereas the historical average temperature for Helsinki for January 8 is about -3°C.  The forecast abnormality is thus about 11°C lower than normal, or -11°C.

Looking at Madrid, Spain:  Forecast for Friday is about 11°C, whereas the normal would be about 5°C.  A forecast of a 6° abnormality in the warmer (positive) direction, or +6°, indicated on the map by orange colors.

The temperature data I found with a quick Google search may not match the map data exactly, but the trend shown is the same. 


You are correct that this is only one day's weather.  However, this abnormality is noteworthy because, as modeled, the degree of expected temperature variance is so unusual and unexpected that it is "off the scale."  Climate Reanalyzer 5-day average also shows an extremely cold temperature anomaly (departure from average) in Scandinavia -- about as cold a departure from average as the map can show....

i see what you mean only that i consider this totally normal, that map which i check every day has always colder than normal spots and warmer than normal spots around the globe and pink spots are always the find as are the red spots while the above normal spots or areas autnumber the others. however if you just meant that it's below average over scandinavia that's correct for the next 5 days and after that the pink spot will shift elsewhere as usual :-) what i'm trying to say is that i can post every day an image with pink spots and thus far did not consider this something special. all good.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 07, 2016, 05:39:47 AM
Sigmetnow, magnamentis.

I've been following the ensemble runs for Stockholm the last two winters, during January and February there have been a disturbing pattern. It usually gets warmer than forecasted.

This drop is unusual in the other direction, it wasn't forecasted at all in the earlier runs. I'll attach a small pic from the day before christmas.

Second pic is from today, showing an unsecure forecast and higher temperatures in a couple of days. The ensemble members starts to split already on the 9:th. No clear conclusions to make from these.

I'll also add the December anomalies from SMHI and the first five days in January. January has a long way to go to compensate for December.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 07, 2016, 09:54:38 AM
Here's the anomalies for the 6:th. Climatology 1961-1990.
Maybe we should just change the steps to two degrees...
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: magnamentis on January 07, 2016, 11:56:47 AM
nice contribution, thanks, very much appreciated.

perhaps my english is not good enough to express better but i did not want to deny the anomaly but think that
local anomalies happen intermittently at all times across the globe, more so of course where temp ranges are higher and less so where they're smaller like at the equator for example. still this is very interesting and will have a further look at the past, whether such outliers are really that rare in one or another place or if it happens regulary, even though not always in the same places, depending on general whether patterns that are individual for each year. once the coldest spot is over the baltic and another year can be over north sweden. my impression was that it happens each year somewhere.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 07, 2016, 12:30:57 PM
magnamentis, you can start here and especially that link to those papers in the first post about ENSO effects in Europe.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.0.html)
Scandinavia normally sees drier and colder weather shortly after a large El Nino. But the effects are not clear since we are affected by a number of other weather patterns, but they are there.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: magnamentis on January 07, 2016, 10:16:57 PM
thanks for the link, will look into right now  :)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: jdallen on January 08, 2016, 09:29:39 AM
NOAA is following a sub-tropical low, which, in mid January, is creating massive circulation and near hurricane force winds.

Now watch as it drags that massive blob of heat along and gets pin-balled into the central Arctic.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 09, 2016, 03:06:23 PM
Weird weather cause $25 billion is loses in 2015:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/04/insurers-paid-out-26-billion-dollars-natural-disaster-claims- (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/04/insurers-paid-out-26-billion-dollars-natural-disaster-claims-)

Extract: "Insurers paid out $27bn for natural disaster claims in 2015.

Weather caused 94% of catastrophes including storms, floods and earthquakes last year, according to data from reinsurer Munich Re."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Buddy on January 09, 2016, 03:25:58 PM
Quote
Weather caused 94% of catastrophes including storms, floods and earthquakes last year, according to data from reinsurer Munich Re."

It's a good thing there isn't any economic cost to global warming... ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JimD on January 11, 2016, 04:40:01 PM
To supplement jdallen's post above.

Quote
Tropical Storms in both the Atlantic and Pacific during January. It could happen this week. And it’s all due to this new Anthropocene weather we’re now experiencing....

Pali — Earliest Tropical Cyclone to have Ever Formed in Central Pacific

Pali, in particular, is an unusual beast. According to Weather Underground, as of early this morning Pali was whipping up 65 mile per hour winds and rough surf along a broad region of water some 1350 miles southeast of Hawaii. Pali spun up out of a westerly wind burst and storm pattern associated with the monster El Nino now going off in the Pacific....

30 Percent Chance of Tropical Cyclone Development in the Atlantic During January

As if Pali and this ramping trend of off-season tropical cyclone formation in the Pacific weren’t enough to put an exclamation point after the sentence — tropical storms are forming earlier than they used to — we have a concordant potential tropical cyclone development happening at the same time in the Atlantic. A weird storm is taking on extra-tropical characteristics off the US East Coast. Already packing gale-force winds in the range of 60-65 miles per hour, this odd system now has the potential to become a warm-core, tropical low as it moves eastward toward the Azores....

http://robertscribbler.com/ (http://robertscribbler.com/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: mati on January 12, 2016, 01:34:11 AM
blame it all on china
RIP David
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_8IXx4tsus (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_8IXx4tsus)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 13, 2016, 11:45:32 AM
To supplement jdallen's post above.

My own thoughts on the extraordinarily early start to the hurricane season:

http://econnexus.org/pali-in-early-start-to-2016-pacific-cyclone-season/ (http://econnexus.org/pali-in-early-start-to-2016-pacific-cyclone-season/)

The NHC now say that in the North Atlantic there's a:

Quote
50% chance of cyclone formation in the next 48 hours.

Here's Pali via Suomi last night:
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 13, 2016, 10:34:24 PM
Pali in the Pacific has just been joined by Alex in the Atlantic:

http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/ (http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/)

The Azores might be in the firing line of the "subtropical storm"
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2016, 01:08:40 AM
By Dr. Jeff Masters.

Unprecedented: Simultaneous January Named Storms in the Atlantic and Central Pacific
Quote
As we ring in the New Year with record to near-record warm temperatures over much of Earth's oceans, we are confronted with something that would have been unimaginable a few decades ago: simultaneous January named storms in both the Atlantic and Central Pacific.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unprecedented-simultaneous-january-named-storms-in-the-atlantic-and-c (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/unprecedented-simultaneous-january-named-storms-in-the-atlantic-and-c)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 14, 2016, 04:07:30 PM
now [edit: almost] simultaneous January hurricanes!  (Apparently, Alex is 2nd known Atlantic Basin January hurricane ever.) Related link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
[edit: Pali has been downgraded]
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 14, 2016, 06:32:32 PM
now [edit: almost] simultaneous January hurricanes!  (Apparently, Alex is 2nd known Atlantic Basin January hurricane ever.) Related link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/)
[edit: Pali has been downgraded]

The Washington Post linked article provides more background about Alex:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/13/its-january-and-a-tropical-storm-has-formed-in-the-atlantic-ocean/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/01/13/its-january-and-a-tropical-storm-has-formed-in-the-atlantic-ocean/)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: opensheart on January 14, 2016, 06:53:43 PM
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/alex-becomes-the-atlantics-first-january-hurricane-since-1955)

85 MPH winds
Quote
so Alex is officially the strongest January hurricane on record in the Atlantic.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 14, 2016, 07:18:43 PM
The NHC have just issued an interim bulletin about Hurricane Alex:

http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/#comment-492638 (http://econnexus.org/subtropical-storm-alex-arrives-in-the-north-atlantic/#comment-492638)

The view from Terra today:

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 16, 2016, 10:02:41 AM
One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

El Nino normally dampens the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic. Another unusual correlation is that during Alice in 1955 (Dec -54 to Jan -55), we also had a declining El Nino, allthough weak.

Temperature contrasts upwards are increasing and that is thanks to AGW. It will not be a pleasant future in a warming world, as deniers often express.

Temperatures over the Arctic are going strong.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 16, 2016, 10:15:37 AM
One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

Deniers from the Cato Institute claim the cold temperatures aloft prove that the by now ex Hurricane Alex is nothing to do with global warming:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617 (https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617)

Meanwhile the UK Met Office forecast (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/01/is-the-son-of-storm-frank-heading-for-the-arctic/#comment-213180) that:

Quote
[Alex] is heading up towards Greenland in fact. But this ex hurricane, what that’s doing is adding extra energy into the jet stream which is the driving force of our weather at the moment. That in turn is adding extra complications to the computer models that generate the forecast for the weather here across the UK…..

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: seaicesailor on January 16, 2016, 01:39:17 PM
One important part, as noted in those links above and by other meteorologists, is the unusually cold temperatures higher up in the atmosphere above Alex.

Deniers from the Cato Institute claim the cold temperatures aloft prove that the by now ex Hurricane Alex is nothing to do with global warming:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617 (https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/688131411660783617)

Meanwhile the UK Met Office forecast (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/01/is-the-son-of-storm-frank-heading-for-the-arctic/#comment-213180) that:

Quote
[Alex] is heading up towards Greenland in fact. But this ex hurricane, what that’s doing is adding extra energy into the jet stream which is the driving force of our weather at the moment. That in turn is adding extra complications to the computer models that generate the forecast for the weather here across the UK…..

Yeah that has to be it, the strongest tropical cyclone recorded ever two months ago, record temps for weeks in parts of North America, Europe and Asia, (not to mention the Pacific and Indian oceans), a hurricane in January that doesn"t come precisely every other year, oh that weird front that spun tornadoes in Texas, then grew exposively as a storm in Iceland, while another cyclone in the Actic was sucking above-zero temp. air...
Blame it to the cooling of the upper atmosphere.

How long this extremely whacked-out state of weather at global level (not saying climate here) will last?? Till el Niño dissipates or beyond? Cause it starts to look pretty apocalyptic to me.

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 17, 2016, 11:21:10 AM
El Nino effects normally materializes during Jamuary-March. The present El Nino is strengthening right now, so who knows?

Deniers last refuge will be space.

We-re having wild temperature swings here now. The same goes for the entire nation, yesterday we broke the color scale at both ends, on the same day.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 18, 2016, 06:10:38 PM
The linked open access pdf addresses 2014 Extreme Weather Events from a climate change point of view.  As the report is long, I will leave it to those who are interested to look at the pdf.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-ExplainingExtremeEvents2014.1)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 18, 2016, 07:06:37 PM
That was long, and interesting. Just had a quick look and Table 34.1 at the end might be useful to post separately?
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2016, 06:00:52 PM
I post this now to explain the hysteria developing on the U.S. east coast.  Bits of weather energy now over the Pacific are forecast to come together and wallop the Atlantic coastal states with a mega snowstorm this weekend.  Some areas could see 3 feet of snow -- and that's before the blowing and drifting.

Quote
Eric Holthaus: What’s amazing, perhaps even more so than the impressive potential snow totals, is that all the major weather models are already locked in.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/689445668247613442 (https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/689445668247613442)
- This could be the first storm in 13 years to dump a foot of snow on the entire Northeast megalopolis.
- This storm could knock out power to hundreds of thousands of people.
- Coastal flooding could become a serious problem.
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/five-things-to-know-east-coast-snowstorm (http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/five-things-to-know-east-coast-snowstorm)

National Weather Service, Philadelphia/New Jersey region:
Coastal Flooding: With the strong on shore flow, and a full moon on Saturday, coastal flooding is currently likely, potentially moderate to major.  Tidal departures could reach three feet with the early morning high tide on Saturday.
http://ow.ly/d/4elx (http://ow.ly/d/4elx)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 19, 2016, 07:20:27 PM
I post this now to explain the hysteria developing on the U.S. east coast.  Bits of weather energy now over the Pacific are forecast to come together and wallop the Atlantic coastal states

The relevance may not seem immediately apparent, but see also my surf forecast for Greenland:

Two Pairs of Hurricane Force Storms (http://econnexus.org/two-pairs-of-hurricane-force-storms/)

Quote
The Ocean Prediction Center of the United States' National Weather Service highlighted this unusual situation on their Twitter feed yesterday - Four hurricane force lows in the two ocean basins within the next 24 hours!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 20, 2016, 05:19:35 AM
A picture from EarthWindMap showing 850mb and mslp for tomorrow. Poor Greenland.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2016, 04:59:51 PM
High tides, storm surge and fierce onshore winds with this storm don't bode well for coastal infrastructure in New Jersey and Delaware/Maryland/Virginia.

Quote
Coupled atmosphere-wave models with 20-30+ foot waves along Mid-Atlantic coast directed into NJ & DelMarVa  Saturday

https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/689550347476406272
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 21, 2016, 01:58:01 PM
The NWS warns this morning that:

Quote
A potentially crippling winter storm is anticipated for portions of the mid-Atlantic Friday into early Saturday.

and has issued a blizzard warning for Washington DC:

http://econnexus.org/two-pairs-of-hurricane-force-storms/#Blizzard (http://econnexus.org/two-pairs-of-hurricane-force-storms/#Blizzard)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 22, 2016, 05:10:07 PM
With continued global warming the linked reference indicates that in the future events that start-out like the present-day Sandy Atlantic tropical storm would grow to have roughly twice the destructive power as Super Storm Sandy:

William K. M.Lau, J. J. Shi, W. K. Tao and K. M. Kim (2016), "What would happen to Superstorm Sandy under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean?" Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2015GL067050

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067050/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL067050/full)

Abstract: "Based on ensemble numerical simulations, we find that possible responses of Sandy-like superstorms under the influence of a substantially warmer Atlantic Ocean bifurcate into two groups. In the first group, storms are similar to present-day Sandy from genesis to extratropical transition, except they are much stronger, with peak Power Destructive Index (PDI) increased by 50–80%, heavy rain by 30–50%, and maximum storm size (MSS) approximately doubled. In the second group, storms amplify substantially over the interior of the Atlantic warm pool, with peak PDI increased by 100–160%, heavy rain by 70–180%, and MSS more than tripled compared to present-day Superstorm Sandy. These storms when exiting the warm pool, recurve northeastward out to sea, subsequently interact with the developing midlatitude storm by mutual counterclockwise rotation around each other and eventually amplify into a severe Northeastern coastal storm, making landfall over the extreme northeastern regions from Maine to Nova Scotia."

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 10:59:11 PM
It's happening....
Thunderstorm producing snowfall of up to two inches per hour in North Carolina.  Three feet of snow is forecast for the Blue Ridge Mountains.

U.S. National Weather Service.  (In All Caps because that's how they roll.  :D)
Quote
...THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG...WESTERN ROWAN...SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...
NORTHEASTERN GASTON...IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND
NORTHWESTERN DAVIE COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EST...

AT 344 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR NEAR CORNELIUS...
MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND
VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ036&warncounty=NCC097&firewxzone=NCZ036&local_place1=4%20Miles%20SSE%20Troutman%20NC&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=35.6521&lon=-80.8508#.VqKi5oY8KrV (http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ036&warncounty=NCC097&firewxzone=NCZ036&local_place1=4%20Miles%20SSE%20Troutman%20NC&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=35.6521&lon=-80.8508#.VqKi5oY8KrV)
[/quote]

Icing is forecast to be severe in some areas -- 90,000 are already without power.
http://www.weather.com (http://www.weather.com)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 23, 2016, 06:58:51 AM
This is OT and perhaps not interesting to many, but since I've posted the temperature anomalies for Sweden earlier I might as well add this here.

SMHI has now changed them. Earlier they were low res (251x640) GIF's, now they are PNG's (1024x2048). As an example I'll use the one for 20160116 that I posted earlier. Attached in both formats and with a side by side comparison.

The change I would have liked to see (apart from a higher resolution) is an increased scale, but they removed the duckbills >< (we call them that here).
Hmm, is SMHI now officially denying that it can't get colder or warmer than that? :)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 23, 2016, 04:39:20 PM
Eastern U.S. winter storm.  Radar loop GIF at the link.

Quote
@anthonywx:  It's incredible to watch the mechanisms that have lead to DC/MD extreme QPF on models all week start to evolve.

https://twitter.com/anthonywx/status/690845918275444736

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 23, 2016, 09:31:53 PM
Icing is forecast to be severe in some areas -- 90,000 are already without power.

Over 200,000 were without power at one point, mostly in the Carolinas:

Winter Storm Jonas Potentially Crippling for Washington DC (http://econnexus.org/winter-storm-jonas-potentially-crippling-for-washington-dc/)

An image of Jason via Suomi@Worldview:

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2016, 02:55:04 AM
Eric Holthaus: Here's our blizzard and our planet, moments ago.

Quote
Latest full disk image from the NASA GOES Project site - goes.gsfc.nasa.gov

https://twitter.com/abc7alex/status/691065085146562565
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2016, 03:11:51 AM
"7 of NYC's Top 10 snowfalls have now occurred in the last 20 years, 6 of them in last 10. Out of 147-yr record. Hmm."
https://twitter.com/imjacobnotjames/status/691050913692160004

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/691047544953163777
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 24, 2016, 04:27:41 AM
"7 of NYC's Top 10 snowfalls have now occurred in the last 20 years, 6 of them in last 10. Out of 147-yr record. Hmm."
https://twitter.com/imjacobnotjames/status/691050913692160004

https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/691047544953163777

You can't explain that.  ;)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Gray-Wolf on January 24, 2016, 08:19:53 PM
Same reason we've been flooded by '1 in a hundred year....' ( and more for the last two!!) 4 times over the past 6 years!!!!

The planets warmer air holds more moisture..... it;s lessen temp gradient twit pole and equator means a 'wobblier' Jet ( meaning polar outbreaks head south fast!) .... run that moist air into cold air below and 'hey presto! ' Snow...... lots of it!
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 25, 2016, 01:19:57 PM
Weather Underground on the storm:
  Colossal Nor’easter Dumps Record Snow from Maryland to New York
Quote
A ferocious, long-lasting winter storm took its parting swipes at the Eastern Seaboard on Saturday night, leaving in its wake a pile of snowbound cities and shattered records. Millions of people in the nation’s most densely populated urban corridor saw snowfall amounts that matched or exceeded the largest amounts observed in more than a hundred years of recordkeeping. It’s surprisingly difficult to measure snow in an accurate and consistent way, so you should keep a mental asterisk pinned to the statistics you’ll be seeing. Nevertheless, there is no question that this nor’easter, dubbed Winter Storm Jonas by the Weather Channel, was one for the ages--among the most powerful and far-reaching in regional history.
...
While most eyes were peeled on the big cities of the Northeast, coastal residents on either side of the Delaware Bay had to deal with major coastal flooding, especially during Saturday morning’s high tide. Storm-related surges of 4 to 5 feet were common across northern Delaware and southern New Jersey. These are close to the highest values one would expect in any nor’easter. To make matters worse, the full moon added about a foot to the normal morning high tide. The resulting storm tide (the amount over the typical low tide, or mean low low water, including both astronomical and storm-related effects) hit a record 9.27 feet at Lewes, DE, beating the 9.20 feet observed in the nor’easter of March 6, 1962. Cape May and Stone Harbor, NJ, both saw record storm tides that exceeded the values observed during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Floodwaters poured into Stone Harbor in dramatic fashion on Saturday morning.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/colossal-noreaster-dumps-record-snow-from-maryland-to-new-york (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/colossal-noreaster-dumps-record-snow-from-maryland-to-new-york)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 25, 2016, 01:55:07 PM
The Warm Arctic Cold Continent paradigm not only hits the east coast of North America, but also of Asia, as indicated by the record subfreezing temperatures at Hong Kong:

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1904384/polar-vortex-hits-hong-kong-record-low (http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1904384/polar-vortex-hits-hong-kong-record-low)

Extract: "Polar vortex hits Hong Kong: record low temperatures close schools, hospitalise 45, injure 111, trap 130 on Kowloon Peak.  New records set for Hong Kong with a low of 3.1 (F) degrees, while Tai Mo Shan receives its coldest temperatures ever."
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 25, 2016, 02:50:33 PM
Meanwhile southern Scandinavia is dripping wet and cozy again. And will be for a while. Partly thanks to the remnants of Jonas Snowzilla.
Ensemble runs from ECMWF (2016-01-25 00:00UTC) for Copenhagen, Gothenburg and Stockholm. The green line is the median.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: JMP on January 26, 2016, 05:58:58 AM
Robert Scribbler - puts the day in perspective well:
http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/26/arctic-heatwave-drives-deadly-asian-cold-snap/ (http://robertscribbler.com/2016/01/26/arctic-heatwave-drives-deadly-asian-cold-snap/)   
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Laurent on January 26, 2016, 11:29:24 AM
El Niño Erosion Leaves Pacifica Apartments On The Brink Of Collapse
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pacifica-cliff-collapse_us_56a6d5a8e4b01a3ed123bd2f?ir=Green&section=us_green&utm_hp_ref=green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/pacifica-cliff-collapse_us_56a6d5a8e4b01a3ed123bd2f?ir=Green&section=us_green&utm_hp_ref=green)
Quote

California apartments with commanding views of the Pacific are now in danger of collapsing into the ocean.

Erosion blamed on El Niño rains is tearing away at the cliffs of Pacifica, just outside San Francisco. Drone footage shows how volatile the situation is, and how close to the literal edge some apartments are:

At one point, the drone captured video of people standing on their terraces as part of the cliff under the apartment buildings next door crumbled:

Some of the apartments were condemned years ago due to the erosion, but now the city has shuttered more units and at least two homes, according to ABC 7.

The city also declared a state of emergency.

Residents in the newly condemned apartments are finding notices on their doors allowing them to enter only long enough to collect their belongings:

    These are now on residents' doors pic.twitter.com/sT5F53dAsk
    — Wayne Freedman (@WayneFreedman) January 25, 2016

About 20 apartments have been condemned so far, according to KRON 4.

"We have no clue on where we're going to go. I just moved in. I just got my place," resident Monica Montoya, who must vacate her apartment by Monday night, told CBS News. "Finally got my housing, and now I have to move out."

The network reports that at least one home collapsed into the ocean during the 1998 El Niño year, and several others were demolished before they, too, collapsed.

The Red Cross and Pacifica Resource Center are standing by to assist those forced out of their homes.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2016, 08:39:36 AM
Quote
Huge waves up to about 5 metres (16 feet) high slam Chile’s coastal resort town of Viña del Mar over the weekend, as high surf caused by El Niño storms batter the country’s Pacific coast. Television footage aired by Chile’s TVN network shows powerful waves toppling and dragging a civil defence SUV, with passersby rushing to help the passengers get out
http://youtu.be/bnY8iXLEWZQ (http://youtu.be/bnY8iXLEWZQ)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2016, 12:12:58 PM
Back to the new blue, red. Anomalies from yesterday.

The anomalies will be higher when published tomorrow, five days ago we had around -20°C in the south, today +10°C.
Example from a weatherstation in Horn also attached.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 27, 2016, 01:58:45 PM
That looks like a nice system you have there cross the bay, Sleepy! I wish Finland would also have something like that. People do easily forget what was normal even 20 years ago. Our meteorology office is mostly just reporting weather, they do hiwever report the records and some climate data, but no this kind of comparisons.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2016, 06:42:42 PM
Pmt, there's much more. We also have SMHI's open data.
http://opendata-catalog.smhi.se/explore/ (http://opendata-catalog.smhi.se/explore/)

So if I would like to cherry pick some data for Stockholm, I would compare the monthly means for November to March in 1788/1789 with 2014 and 2015 I would get this:
1788-12 -10.4  2014-12 0.5  2015-12   4.1
1789-01   -8.2  2015-01 0.9
1789-02   -4.5  2015-02 1.3
1789-03   -8.8  2015-03 3.9
1789-04    2.3  2015-04 7.4

:)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Tor Bejnar on January 27, 2016, 07:44:00 PM
My, my, Swedish cherries in January!  :D
If you ever wanted proof of climate change... ::)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 28, 2016, 03:10:59 AM
NOAA Climate.gov: "On a national scale, December was both the warmest and wettest December on record for the contiguous United States. That in itself is a feat. It’s the first time since the record reached statistical adulthood (in 1925, when it turned 30) that any month became the wettest and warmest on record."
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/dissecting-2015s-warm-and-wet-december (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/dissecting-2015s-warm-and-wet-december)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 28, 2016, 05:50:17 AM
My, my, Swedish cherries in January!  :D
If you ever wanted proof of climate change... ::)

Just wait until you see the anomalies for the 27:th. ;)

We still need all the proof we can get. More than a hundred years of science isn't enough. The latest poll shows 42.3% for the right wing here (C+L+KD+M). Adding 16.7% for our real denialist party (SD) sums up to 59%.

Then we have 24.7% for "maybe we should start to do something but we must improve growth first" (S). Only two parties V (6.6%) and MP (6.5%) have a more clear agenda for mitigation.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 28, 2016, 09:35:52 AM
Sad to hear of the political situation there. As you may know the finnish politics is now dominated by the denialists (PS) and their sympathizers so I'm expecting 3 more years of misery and pillage.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 28, 2016, 10:36:53 AM
Yes, Pmt, I know about the "true finns". Perussuomalaiset.
But they do want to minize emissions.  ::) And put marks on all ethnic groups, so that the police immediately can distinguish muslims and swedish-speaking finns from real finns. Oh no, that last one was of course a joke...
Our local representative for SD went to a pure nazi party last year. He was fed up with how liberal SD had become...
I'll add one picture that always comes to mind when hearing those people talk.

And one, at least a bit more on topic. Yesterdays anomalies.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 28, 2016, 10:50:46 AM
There absolutely nothing on climate or emissions on their program, you've fallen for their propaganda. And that 'joke' could be read on some of their forums.

I'm stopping this political conversation here from my part.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 28, 2016, 02:31:25 PM
There absolutely nothing on climate or emissions on their program, you've fallen for their propaganda. And that 'joke' could be read on some of their forums.

I'm stopping this political conversation here from my part.
You clearly misunderstood, Pmt. Too much irony on my part perhaps?
Sorry for bringing it up.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 28, 2016, 06:08:42 PM
Probably so, sorry for that bit. SD and about a third of PS would go nicely together if they'd understood each others language, i believe. As they do not, they use english and take orders from UKIP. Just joking of course.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 29, 2016, 11:40:02 AM
The officially named (unlike Jonas!) "Storm Gertrude" is rumoured to be bringing hurricane force winds to the Northern United Kingdom:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213300 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/01/more-heat-heading-for-north-pole/#comment-213300)

Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2016, 02:08:54 PM
The officially named (unlike Jonas!) "Storm Gertrude" is rumoured to be bringing hurricane force winds to the Northern United Kingdom:

35-foot waves and wind gusts to 132 mph reported:
Quote
AltiKa detects 35 ft @ 06Z w/hurricane force low in NE Atl. Gusts to 132 mph have been reported @ 1200 M in Scotland

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/693004598412492800
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2016, 02:44:24 PM
Car carrier listing in the Bay of Biscay.  :o  Load shifted in Force 8 winds (39-46 mph).

"According to France’s Maritime Prefect, the Modern Express is loaded with 3,600 tons of wood and construction equipment."
Listing Car Carrier ‘Modern Express’ Abandoned in Bay of Biscay
http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/26/listing-car-carrier-modern-express-abandoned-in-bay-of-biscay/ (http://gcaptain.com/2016/01/26/listing-car-carrier-modern-express-abandoned-in-bay-of-biscay/)

Stunning video in this link:
Quote
#ModernExpress en #detresse Vidéo tournée depuis l'hélicoptère Lynx de la frégate Primauguet @MarineNationale

https://twitter.com/premaratlant/status/692820458715140096 (https://twitter.com/premaratlant/status/692820458715140096)
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: Sleepy on January 29, 2016, 06:38:37 PM
Gertrude is called Tor in Scandinavia.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: P-maker on January 29, 2016, 09:53:36 PM
Tor - Gertrude - Jonas - what a mess!

According to Danish Televison this evening, the storm Tor hit a new national record today in Norway. A mean wind speed of 47 m/s has never before been observed in this otherwise very windy country.

 Could  all of you ( including you Neven ) please consider a new dynamic, flexible and scalable system to track anomalies like this. If in fact this storm deliivered more than a meter of snow in Eastern North America, hit SW England with 5-10 m swells (for Jim Hunt to enjoy in his spare time) and then hit Norway with nearly 50 m/s, then it is about time that someone cut through the crap and made a projection for the Arctic Sea Ice. One could argue that all the energy already wasted, should not be part of the equation. On the other hand, building up even more extremes is not a good sign. I Will leave it to you guys to agreen on a name for the system and foresee the consequences of messing with Nature like we do at the moment.
Title: Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
Post by: theoldinsane on January 29, 2016, 10:22:01 PM
I Will leave it to you guys to agreen on a name for the system

My proposal:

Weather Superfluidity caused by Global Warming

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superfluidity

Superfluidity is a state of matter in which the matter behaves like a fluid with zero viscosity; where it a