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Off-topic => The politics => Topic started by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2020, 08:11:03 PM

Title: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2020, 08:11:03 PM
Recent polls (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/) show Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 6-13 points (I've heard of bigger spreads).  What will be the spread after all most ballots are counted?  Lets give the states 6 days to count - so, effective Nov. 10 (morning in the eastern US).  (Final counts may take weeks longer, but it won't change the big picture, or so I hope!).

You may not change your vote!

This poll closes a couple days before Election Day.

Historical examples (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election):

You enter the 'real' [still virtual] sweepstakes if you post a predicted spread before this poll closes.  You win if you are closest to the Nov. 10 tally with the smallest spread: ties go to the earlier (earliest) poster that was 'most' correct (smallest spread).  I'm guessing Wikipedia will update the numbers as they come in.  The winner gets kudos.  We get a corporate 'win' if the poll's most selected option covers the actual outcome.

More rules:
If you post more than one 'exact spread', only the last post counts!  An unspecified decimals spread will be deemed the spread rounded to the nearest whole number (so, "a tie" means the actual spread is between +/- 0.5000%) You could go for "Trump by 0-1" (meaning Trump by 0.0000 to 1.4999), "Trump by 1-3" (wider spread of 0.5000 to 3.4999) or "Biden from 1.2000 to 1.7000" (narrower spread).  "Biden will win" would be a very broad spread.  For clarity's sake, the spread is between portions of the total vote, not between portions of the sum of Trump and Biden votes.  If the courts throw out a state's ballot count, we don't care: we'll keep 'em.  If Trump 'cancels the election', we'll see what Wikipedia says the vote count is/was on Nov. 10 ... 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Paddy on October 19, 2020, 09:58:22 PM
I went for 5 to 8, although the polls say 9. But that seems like too much to hope for.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: SteveMDFP on October 19, 2020, 10:08:27 PM
Biden by 8 to 12 points
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 19, 2020, 10:54:13 PM
A co-worker asked me for a number ("none of this 'range' stuff").  I said "12".  She said "16".  A few days ago, a respected collector-of-non-partisan-political-polls's blog (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct17.html) wrote "7% or so".
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: greylib on October 19, 2020, 11:19:14 PM
I'm in the UK, so can't vote. It WILL affect us, though. Which is why I'm paying attention to the race.

I've voted 2-5%. I think it'll be more, but the Republicans have the better lawyers. I expect to see a lot of counts stopped and a lot of votes thrown out.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on October 20, 2020, 02:40:49 PM
I voted 2-5%, but I think the electoral college will be closer.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: gerontocrat on October 20, 2020, 08:12:39 PM
I reckon 5.5% for Biden to have just enough votes so that the Electoral college won't be able to give it to Trump.

But the Electoral College numbers will be so close that Trump will not be able to resist sending tweets that inspire some militias do some really stoopid things, and some people get hurt and some die.

But what a mess to sort out, especially if the Democrats don't get the Senate.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Freegrass on October 20, 2020, 08:42:39 PM
I voted Biden by 8-12%, but I'm not all too sure about that...

If it's not that big of a lead nationally, Americannot is more insane than I could ever imagine...

Religious extremism + identity insecurity + inadequate education and Facebook and Putin, could still give Trump a win...

But somehow I hope America is better than that. So I think it'll be a wipeout.

But don't underestimate the stupidity of idiots!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: karl dubhe2 on October 21, 2020, 08:29:35 PM
I voted the 12-16 range, iirc.  I'd like to think that the margin for Biden will be over 15% of the total popular vote.  Of course, what matters are the state races, cause that's how their electoral college works.

The high turnout in the early voting gives me some pleasant feelings about the future.

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: longwalks1 on October 22, 2020, 04:42:11 PM
Diebold - Premier Election systems.   Voting is just a cog in the machine.   In the end it is the electoral college.  Going to be a mess.   

I sent money to a retired nurse running for the Iowa house, I will vote this year.  Everybody who calls I let them know in no uncertain terms I would not vote for criminal trump or war-mongering Biden.  After the drive around Walter Reed and the taking off of the mask and the delusional "Maybe I am immune" - I will vote against trump.   A cousin was "silly and she and husband went to Israel and then a Nile river boat cruise early on.   10 days intubated.   



I am back living in a county that voted in a sizeable  majority for extremely racist Steve King, I am keeping my head down.  In 2014 I was watching CNN in Winnipeg with 2 co-workers, I had 21 co-workers at that house, all but I had been born in Africa.   They were astounded at a statement by Steve King, and some of my co-workers studied up on Steven King.

Allen Berg was assassinated by neo-nazis in 1984 and David Lane was a part of that assassination.  David Lane coined the "14 Words", an usOa-ized distillation of Mein Kampf in my view while in prison.  It is used quite a bit by racists north of the Rio Grande.   

Going a bit north, Faith Goldy has  recited in public the "14 Words" several times around her attempt to be the Mayor of Toronto Ontario.   

Steven King, a US Representative endorsed her campaign up in Canada. It is quite rare for any official elected to US house or Senate to endorse people running in another country, but Steve King did.   But any time I post on Facebook or talk about how racist Steven King is, people who say they are not racist say he was misquoted.     

Well, Steve King was finally let go from the House of "Representatives"   where he started in 2002 via not being allowed to run as a Republican this year.    He has consistently polled over 60% since starting to represent Winnebago county. 

This was the seat held by Berkley Beddell, probably the most involved in usOfa House efforts to reduce nuclear weapons in the 80's and 90's.   It is a long way to January and voting will not save us in the usOfa.

 

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on October 28, 2020, 11:48:18 AM
I voted Biden by 2% figuring "shy Trump voters" but Biden might get more than that, so if it is 2-5% I will not be surprised.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: oren on October 28, 2020, 12:46:53 PM
I voted for 2-5% for Biden. Hopefully it should lean towards 5% and get him the electoral college.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 29, 2020, 02:06:23 PM
The following table is from today's electoral-vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html#item-1) blog (yesterday's polls).  Rasmussen is know to have a strong Republican lean.  Without Rasmussen's poll, the average difference is +10.3.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on October 29, 2020, 03:28:19 PM
In the 2016 election, IBD/TIPP was the only pollster to correctly predict the outcome; both in the electoral college and overall.  There spread is currently 5%, up from 3% a month ago.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: FrostKing70 on October 29, 2020, 06:48:17 PM
I vote 8-12%.  I can't find the article today, but saw one earlier this week that indicated even a 8% popular vote margin is not enough to ensure an electoral college win.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on October 29, 2020, 07:52:46 PM
I vote 8-12%.  I can't find the article today, but saw one earlier this week that indicated even a 8% popular vote margin is not enough to ensure an electoral college win.

No one has ever lost when they had an 8% vote margin.  In fact, the largest margin in the popular vote to lose in the electoral college was Clinton in 2016, and that was only 2%!  The only election in which a candidate won the popular vote by more was 1824, when no one received a majority, and the house had to decide the outcome.  In the other elections (1888, 1960, and 2000), the popular vote was within 1%.  In fact, the median margin of victory in all elections is 8.5%, so I would state confidently that anyone winning the popular vote by 8% will win the presidency.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Florifulgurator on October 30, 2020, 10:51:07 AM
I clicked 12-16% yesterday. That's more than the polls - but the long early voting lines suggest a huge disproportionate voter turnout on the Biden side. First I thought I might be too optimistic and the early voter lines were overhyped, but now here is this:

Quote
Texas Leads Nation In Early Voting At 8.5 Million Cast – 94% Of 2016 Turnout
[...]
Texas trails only California in total votes cast by 30,000 – though California has over 10 million more people – but leads the nation in percent of 2016 turnout, ahead of Hawaii at 87%, Montana at 86%, New Mexico at 83% and Georgia at 82%.
[...]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/10/29/texas-leads-nation-in-early-voting-at-85-million-cast--94-of-2016-turnout/
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on October 31, 2020, 11:13:24 PM
About 18 hours to vote in the poll above or refine any prediction in these comments.  Think of it this way:  you won't lose any money if you guess wrong here!

Texas and Hawaii, by the way, surpassed their total 2016 vote yesterday, per NYT (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/31/us/politics/early-voting.html).  That is impressive!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: vox_mundi on November 01, 2020, 01:37:51 AM
In a free and fair election, I would expect a landslide for Biden, unfortunately, we don't live in that sort of democracy.

Since this is a measure of actual votes (not electoral votes), I'm leaning towards a 2-5% win by Biden.

I'm an optimistic cynic ...

Remember ... Past is Prologue ...

---------------------------------------

Expert: Georgia Election Server Showed Signs of Tampering (2016)
https://apnews.com/article/39dad9d39a7533efe06e0774615a6d05

BOSTON (AP) — A computer security expert says he found that a forensic image of the election server central to a legal battle over the integrity of Georgia elections showed signs that the original server was hacked.

The server was left exposed to the open internet for at least six months, a problem the same expert discovered in August 2016. It was subsequently wiped clean in mid-2017 with no notice, just days after election integrity activists filed a lawsuit seeking an overhaul of what they called the state’s unreliable and negligently run election system.

The expert determined that computer logs — which would have been critical to understanding what might have been altered on or stolen from the server — only go back to Nov. 10, 2016 — two days after Donald Trump was elected U.S. president. Two years later, Brian Kemp won the Georgia governor’s race by a narrow margin over Democrat Stacey Abrams.

Kemp oversaw Georgia’s elections during both races as secretary of state. Election administration was handled at Kennesaw State University by an outfit that Kemp’s office dismantled after the server-wiping incident.

------------------------------------------

Researchers Assembled over 100 Voting Machines. Hackers Broke Into Every Single One.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/09/defcon-2019-hacking-village/

A cybersecurity exercise highlights both new and unaddressed vulnerabilities riddling US election systems

Report: https://media.defcon.org/DEF%20CON%2027/voting-village-report-defcon27.pdf

“Once again, Voting Village participants were able to find new ways, or replicate previously published methods, of compromising every one of the devices in the room,” the authors wrote, pointing out that every piece of assembled equipment is certified for use in at least one US jurisdiction. The report’s authors, some of whom have been involved with election machine security research going back more than a decade, noted that in most cases the participants tested voting equipment “they had no prior knowledge of or experience” in a “challenging setting ” with less time and resources than attackers would be assumed to marshal.

Ultimately, the report notes flaws that have been acknowledged for years.

“As disturbing as this outcome is, we note that it is at this point an unsurprising result,” the authors conclude. “However, it is notable—and especially disappointing—that many of the specific vulnerabilities reported over a decade earlier…are still present in these systems today.”

----------------------------------

Senate GOP Blocks Three Election Security Bills (2020)
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/482569-senate-gop-blocks-three-election-security-bills

----------------------------------

Did Anonymous Stop Rove From Stealing the Election?(2012)
https://www.salon.com/2012/11/20/did_anonymous_stop_rove_stealing_the_election/

Short answer: Yes!

-----------------------------------------

Greg Palast: Ethnic Votes Stolen in Crucial States (2016)
https://www.gregpalast.com/ethnic-votes-stolen-crucial-states-help-fix-us-election-trump-reveals-greg-palast/

... Trump’s increasing hysteria about vote rigging served as the ultimate smokescreen for a Republican systematic denial of hundreds of thousands of crucial votes in the name of preventing fraud. (Crosscheck fiasco)

... This inherent bias results in an astonishing one in six Hispanics, one in seven Asian-Americans and one in nine African-Americans in Crosscheck states landing on what Palast dubs “Trump’s hit list.”

... Palast’s investigators calculated 1.1 million people, many spread over crucial swing states were deprived of their right to vote last Tuesday. (2016)

------------------------------------

https://publicintegrity.org/politics/elections/ballotboxbarriers/trump-reshaped-courts-lawsuits-limit-voting/

... Leaders of some large corporations like Blackstone and Charles Schwab are bankrolling the legal fight to keep people from voting, and some of the cases are being heard by judge. (hand selected by Koch Bros) that were appointed by Trump and confirmed by a Republican Senate that has been almost singularly focused on packing the judiciary with conservatives after holding positions vacant during the Obama administration.

--------------------------------

Texas Republicans Ask Federal Judge to Throw Out 117,000 Legally Cast Ballots (2020)
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/texas-drive-through-voting-throw-out-ballots.amp

Texas Republicans have asked a federal judge to throw out at least 117,000 ballots cast in Harris County, a heavily Democratic area that has experienced an unprecedented surge in early voting this month. The brazen effort to undo legally cast ballots in a diverse, populous county is an eleventh-hour attempt to diminish Joe Biden’s chances of carrying the swing state on Nov. 3. Republicans claim that Harris County’s use of drive-thru voting violates the U.S. Constitution, requiring the judge to throw out every ballot cast this way—more than 117,000 as of Friday. This argument is outrageous and absurd. But the case landed in front of U.S. District Judge Andrew Hanen, one of the most notoriously partisan conservatives in the federal judiciary. Democrats have good reason to fear that Hanen will order the mass nullification of ballots as early as Nov. 2, when he has scheduled a hearing.

-------------------------------------------

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291631.html#msg291631

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291585.html#msg291585

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2441.msg291360.html#msg291360

--------------------------------

(https://grondamorin.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/i-have-a-dream-cartoon-voter-suppression-cg521c9aef97915.jpg)

-------------------------------

... and that barely scratches the surface
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 01, 2020, 08:44:17 PM
48 brave souls!  Now the waiting (or actual voting for some).

CNN (https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls) reports recent national polls have spreads of 8 to 12, with an average a spot over 10 points.  Lots more (older) polls at the link.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 01, 2020, 11:30:07 PM
48 brave souls!  Now the waiting (or actual voting for some).

CNN (https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/presidential-polls) reports recent national polls have spreads of 8 to 12, with an average a spot over 10 points.  Lots more (older) polls at the link.

Funny how they neglected to include the three most recent polls.  JTN a week ago had Biden +7, USAToday least week was also Biden +7.  IBD (which correctly called the 2016 election) just released their last with Biden +5.  So, the most recent polls have an average of Biden +6.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 02, 2020, 07:01:08 PM
BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54094119) yesterday lists three Oct. 31 national polls.  (Oct. 30 has two, by 2 of the 3 Oct. 31 pollsters.) More polls at the link.  (screen shot below)

Yahoo (https://sports.yahoo.com/biden-trump-final-polls-2020-election-eve-174035011.html) a few minutes ago (Mon, November 2, 2020, 12:40 PM EST) posted
Quote
• Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. The survey of 1,501 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

• Biden +10: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed the former vice president with a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

One poll is in both bits of coverage.
Average of 10, 6 and 9 and 10 is 8.75
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 09:08:21 PM
This could be a very close election.
I have missed voting twice in my life. The first time was an off-November election when I was in college in the late Seventies. I had exams that day. I did not have a car or a license or a ride. I could not get to my polling place in Maple Heights. My college was CWRU in Cleveland. I could not get an absentee ballot because I was still in Cuyahoga County that day.
The vote was tied and the candidate I would have voted for lost the coin toss.
Even though the popular vote across the nation does not decide the POTUS (as we learned in 2016), your vote could decide the winner in your state and thus your electors...in fact it is more likely because the voting population is smaller.

Every.
Vote.
Counts.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: interstitial on November 02, 2020, 09:56:32 PM
I expect high turnout overall. 70% of the number of 2016 voters have already voted. I voted the day I got my ballot over a week ago.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 02, 2020, 10:31:23 PM
BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2020-54094119) yesterday lists three Oct. 31 national polls.  (Oct. 30 has two, by 2 of the 3 Oct. 31 pollsters.) More polls at the link.  (screen shot below)

Yahoo (https://sports.yahoo.com/biden-trump-final-polls-2020-election-eve-174035011.html) a few minutes ago (Mon, November 2, 2020, 12:40 PM EST) posted
Quote
• Biden +10: A Yahoo News/YouGov poll released Monday showed Biden with a 10-point lead (53 percent to 43 percent) over Trump among likely voters — margin that’s more than three times as large as Hillary Clinton’s final polling advantage in 2016. The survey of 1,501 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 30 to Nov. 1, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

• Biden +10: An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Sunday showed the former vice president with a 10-point lead (52 percent to 42 percent) over the president. The survey of 1,000 registered U.S. voters, conducted Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

One poll is in both bits of coverage.
Average of 10, 6 and 9 and 10 is 8.75

RCP lists three polls released on Nov. 1.  Rasmussen (known Rep. bias) at Biden +1, Quinnipiac (known Dem bias) at Biden +11, and IBD/TIPP at Biden +3.  The average of 1, 3, and 11 is 5.0.

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 10:34:41 PM
I once read a letter to the editor saying voting should be required by law, with a fine for failure to vote.
Does this sound reasonable to anyone?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Ktb on November 02, 2020, 11:38:44 PM
Yes Tom, it’s called compulsory voting and many countries have it.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 02, 2020, 11:45:54 PM
I don’t know about forcing people to vote if they don’t want to. What’s to stop them from just voting at random?
If you can’t be bothered to vote without force forcing a vote could just make things worse.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 03, 2020, 12:16:07 AM
I don’t know about forcing people to vote if they don’t want to. What’s to stop them from just voting at random?
If you can’t be bothered to vote without force forcing a vote could just make things worse.

Entirely true.  On the other hand, compulsory voting would thwart most voter suppression efforts.  I think that benefit far outweighs the adverse effects.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: oren on November 03, 2020, 12:21:55 AM
Easy, give anyone who votes a $100 bonus for their efforts. Voter participation will be much higher.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 12:42:18 AM
Easy, give anyone who votes a $100 bonus for their efforts. Voter participation will be much higher.

I think that is better than making it compulsory.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: KiwiGriff on November 03, 2020, 06:36:10 AM
The USA is rated as a flawed democracy.
(https://www.eiu.com/topic/democracy-index)
Until they address the many issues in their electoral process they will only continue to fall down the democracy rankings .

I voted a few weeks back in New Zealand's  elections.
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Polling places are opened every where here including large supermarkets, shopping malls, local schools, library's and community centers . Voting starts two weeks before the election to make it easy and stress free to fit  into your schedule .
I can not imagine a place that backwards that you have to queue for hours just to vote .
USA thinks they have freedom when they don't even know what freedom is.

 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 12:19:14 PM
Quote
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Name and address widely available from phone book or online equivalent.
If someone get your birthday (hacking, knowing personally, whatever) is there anything to prevent them from voting in your name before you get a chance to?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: oren on November 03, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
I Israel an official ID is required for voting, or the state-issued passport. Everyone must get an official ID anyway, starting at 16. For some weird reason the US doesn't have an official ID with photo (am I correct?). If not for the ID requirement, I can imagine lots of shenanigans with people voting in your stead. Polling stations are mostly opened in elementary schools, which are in every neighborhood, and you can also vote in other polling stations if you give the excuse the you are unable to get to your own station. Absentees on official government service (soldiers, diplomats) can vote in double envelopes, but other absentees abroad cannot vote.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 03:36:53 PM
I Israel an official ID is required for voting, or the state-issued passport. Everyone must get an official ID anyway, starting at 16. For some weird reason the US doesn't have an official ID with photo (am I correct?). If not for the ID requirement, I can imagine lots of shenanigans with people voting in your stead. Polling stations are mostly opened in elementary schools, which are in every neighborhood, and you can also vote in other polling stations if you give the excuse the you are unable to get to your own station. Absentees on official government service (soldiers, diplomats) can vote in double envelopes, but other absentees abroad cannot vote.

The Democratic party has resisted ID requirements for voting for years.  The argument was that a larger number of potential Democratic voters lack proper ID for voting.  While valid in the past, this argument becomes less consequential as the years pass.  In reality, extremely few voters lack proper ID, and even those could get a valid state voters card if they so chose.  Opponents have claimed that it is easier to cheat without voter ID requirements.  This is certainly true.  How much effect this may have on the outcomes is unknown.  Voter fraud is rather hard to prove after the fact.  Fraudulent absentee is the most common voter fraud occurring today, and voter ID would only combat that issue slightly.  Still, it would help.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 03:56:09 PM
IIRC you don't have to have ID, but life is a lot easier if you do.
Everybody uses driver's licenses. I think you can get a special ID card if you can't pass the driver's test.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: colchonero on November 03, 2020, 03:58:31 PM
Why wouldn't anybody require ID when casting a vote on something that has impact on so many lives including your own???

Not to require some form of ID (passport,license etc) is not flawed anywhere in the world, it is pure common sense. Or do you think everyone is honest, and wouldn't take advantage?!

That is like saying why do you have a cashier when you buy something, why don't you just leave a box for people to put their money in.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 03, 2020, 04:10:25 PM
In person voter fraud is rare.  Why?  The downside (you might get caught) is much bigger than the upside (your candidates get an extra vote).
I suspect all the 'no ID required' states require a signature.   It's a lot of work to learn someone's signature (I couldn't do it) for just an extra vote for someone else.

By the way, voting and vote counting in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire (https://www.wmur.com/article/2020-new-hampshire-general-election-dixville-notch-millsfield/34541057#) were carried live at midnight (10 hours ago) - I watched.   5 votes for Biden and 0 votes for Trump.  (The races for governor, senator and representative all went for the incumbent 4 votes to 1 - a Republican governor and Democratic members of Congress.

In Millsfield, New Hampshire (https://www.wmur.com/article/2020-new-hampshire-general-election-dixville-notch-millsfield/34541057#) (also voting at midnight) Trump received 16 votes and Biden received 5.

I've been to many a farm stand where money is put into a box.  I once bought $100 dollars of honey (several of us - I had my checkbook) this way.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: colchonero on November 03, 2020, 04:51:18 PM
That is not an extra vote, in eastern European countries (many other places too, but also in Europe) you have organized voting fraud systems, with the lists of voters, money offering, many more things. Imagine you don't have to offer an ID, nobody can control anything, and imagine doing that in an organizedway,  in some Cornhole Kansas towns, where there are no pollwatchers, and you get 100% turnout 95-5% votes let's say. And nobody can dissaprove that. Imagine what would happen in those places especially, if there is no electoral college.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 03, 2020, 05:04:47 PM
Voter fraud is extremely easy. There are many ways to do it. I won't list any, but if you are interested, just look up the numerous criminal cases to find examples. There was a big case in NC of a Republican hiring a ballot harvester in the primary (this year? 2018? I can't remember).

In the US or in any semi competent democratic system, voter fraud in sufficient numbers to make even a tiny difference is absolutely impossible to do without getting caught. Especially in a nationwide election.

Every election there are a handful of voters (usually Republicans) who are innumerate enough and stupid enough to think voter fraud is a good idea. Some of them get caught. The ones who don't get caught are too few to make a difference.

Trump has complained that there were "millions" of fraudulent votes in 2016 to explain his popular vote loss. After being in charge of the DOJ, the FEC, and the FBI for 4 years; and with all the resources of the largest, richest, most powerful government in history, his administration has found, prosecuted, and convicted exactly zero fraudulent voters out of those "millions".

Are Trump and every single one of his appointees monumentally incompetent, or was he lying about the "millions" of fraudulent votes?

Por que no los dos?

------------------

Instead of voter fraud, the US way to throw elections is by voter suppression, intimidation, and numerous "legal" ways of slanting the laws and rules to favor one interest group over others. Usually the oligarchists, the JimCrow/white supremacists, wealthy landowners, etc  ... these people make the rules and count the votes.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Bruce Steele on November 03, 2020, 05:25:11 PM
Tor Bejnar, I think your risk / reward analysis is correct and individual voter fraud is without reward. You are also correct about a signature required with your mail in  ballot , at least here in Calif. 

The markets seem happy this morning , expecting more stimulus I think with a Biden win. And a financial adviser said solar investments are supported with the “ Blue Wave “
 I will save downside views about two months more Trump as a really lame duck. Today I will remain positive.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 03, 2020, 05:47:59 PM
Quote
No wait, no ID needed, no hassles just gave my name , address and dob they checked me off the on line roll and gave me the required forms . I voted within my electorate if I was outside of the region the process is only slightly more complex.
Name and address widely available from phone book or online equivalent.
If someone get your birthday (hacking, knowing personally, whatever) is there anything to prevent them from voting in your name before you get a chance to?

Fear of a felony conviction is quite sufficient.  In-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare in the US.  State government-imposed obstacles to getting narrowly-defined ID cards is, however, a large problem in many states. 

Concerns about non-citizen voting is also absurd.  If a non-citizen simply *registers* to vote, they can be on an express line for deportation.  This is thus also vanishingly rare.

The real problem with election fairness isn't fraud, it's official actions that tend to disenfranchise eligible voters.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 05:54:35 PM
Quote
I suspect all the 'no ID required' states require a signature.   It's a lot of work to learn someone's signature (I couldn't do it) for just an extra vote for someone else.

My Aunt Margy said she drove the people at the bank crazy...she never signed her namr twice the same way.
To a degree I am like that.
And would you have felt the same iabout voter fraud not making a difference is evidence turned up in 2000 that some Florida Republicans engaged in it? Just a few hundred out of the whole state?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 06:13:54 PM
Re: Compulsory voting
How do you set a fine? "Sorry, Ms. Julenez, the fine is $5000 for not voting. It's the same fine for you as for Bill Gates. The fact you would lose your minimum wage job and your home if you took the time out to vote makes no difference."
And what about religious persecution? I give Jehovah's Witnesses a hard time when they talk to me, but I would not want to fine them for their religion.
The more I think about it the worse the idea seems.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 03, 2020, 06:16:38 PM
Florida 2000

See Brooks Brothers Riot.

When the people who make the rules are the ones rioting, its not illegal, therefore not voter fraud.

SCCJ John Roberts, SCJ Brett Kavanaugh, and new SCJ Amy Barrett where all participants in the Brooks Brothers Riot. Now they are in charge of interpreting the rules.

Its not who votes that counts, its who counts the votes.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 06:34:17 PM
Voter fraud is extremely easy. There are many ways to do it. I won't list any, but if you are interested, just look up the numerous criminal cases to find examples. There was a big case in NC of a Republican hiring a ballot harvester in the primary (this year? 2018? I can't remember).

In the US or in any semi competent democratic system, voter fraud in sufficient numbers to make even a tiny difference is absolutely impossible to do without getting caught. Especially in a nationwide election.

Every election there are a handful of voters (usually Republicans) who are innumerate enough and stupid enough to think voter fraud is a good idea. Some of them get caught. The ones who don't get caught are too few to make a difference.

Trump has complained that there were "millions" of fraudulent votes in 2016 to explain his popular vote loss. After being in charge of the DOJ, the FEC, and the FBI for 4 years; and with all the resources of the largest, richest, most powerful government in history, his administration has found, prosecuted, and convicted exactly zero fraudulent voters out of those "millions".

Are Trump and every single one of his appointees monumentally incompetent, or was he lying about the "millions" of fraudulent votes?


Every election there are numerous cases of voter fraud.  Nobody knows how many for sure, but it is certainly between a handful and millions.  Almost 10,000 voters in NC cast double ballots in both the 2016 and 2018 elections. 

https://www.dailysignal.com/2020/07/09/thousands-of-north-carolina-voters-double-voted-watchdog-group-finds/

Hundreds of dead people voted in recent California election, surpassing Chicago as the leader in the cemetery vote.

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2016/05/23/cbs2-investigation-uncovers-votes-being-cast-from-grave-year-after-year/

The dead also vote in Colorado.

https://denver.cbslocal.com/2016/09/22/cbs4-investigation-finds-dead-voters-casting-ballots-in-colorado/

20 people were convicted of double voting in Arizona in 2016.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/arizona/2017/08/14/voter-fraud-arizona-how-often-does-happen-how-stopped/534986001/

Fraudulent activities can affect the election results:

https://www.nj.com/passaic-county/2014/10/ex-paterson_councilman_wife_indicted_on_election_fraud_charges_wont_go_to_prison.html

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: FrostKing70 on November 03, 2020, 07:00:24 PM
Here is the article I referenced up thread (or at least a similar one!):

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 07:24:30 PM
By that graphic, this morning's IBD/TIPP poll has Biden just squeaking out the election.

https://www.investors.com/news/trump-vs-biden-poll-race-stays-close-election-day-ibd-tipp-presidential-poll/
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 03, 2020, 07:37:54 PM
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Paddy on November 03, 2020, 07:50:50 PM
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...

If so, perhaps they should decide ownership of the white House with pistols at dawn. A bonus would be that if one or both of them survive, they can be locked up for killing or attempting to kill the president.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 03, 2020, 08:07:20 PM
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...

If so, perhaps they should decide ownership of the white House with pistols at dawn. A bonus would be that if one or both of them survive, they can be locked up for killing or attempting to kill the president.

It was self defense and you can't charge me, I'm the president and I give myself immunity. Aarrgghhh!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 03, 2020, 08:45:54 PM

...

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?

You've presented evidence that voter fraud exists at very, very low levels. Handfuls. Not enough to affect a nationwide election.

You've claimed it could be "millions", but presented no evidence. Trump claimed the same thing, has zero convictions to show for it.

There are certainly isolated examples that can affect a local election. Not the topic of this thread. Impossible to sustain for long without being caught. Penalties are steep, not worth the risk unless you own the local law enforcement officials.

Why are Republicans usually the ones getting caught?

Who was the famous wit who said not all Republicans are stupid, but all stupid people are Republicans? Maybe a little harsh, but there's a grain of truth there. Even more so, the entitled elite who have gotten away with anything and everything their whole lives are more likely to be Republicans. They don't think the rules apply to them. Occasionally they find out that voting in two different states is illegal.

Why do Republicans whine incessantly about "widespread" voter fraud while simultaneously being unable to find, charge, and convict these "millions" of fraudulent voters even while controlling the entire criminal justice system?

The answer is that Republicans are not actually worried about widespread voter fraud. They are using it as cover to disenfranchise voters who are likely to vote Democratic. Simple as that. Every damn time. See Florida.  See Georgia, Texas, MS, AL, WI ... etc.

When Republicans control government, they make it harder to vote. These hardships disproportionately fall on Democratic voters, by design. This benefits the Republicans in power.

When Democrats control government, they make it easier to vote. This benefits the party that can get the most votes. Often that is Democrats.

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 03, 2020, 09:08:53 PM

...

If as you claim that it is usually Republicans, then why is the Republican party advocating anti-fraud measures, while the Democratic party is downplaying its very existence?

You've presented evidence that voter fraud exists at very, very low levels. Handfuls. Not enough to affect a nationwide election.

You've claimed it could be "millions", but presented no evidence. Trump claimed the same thing, has zero convictions to show for it.

There are certainly isolated examples that can affect a local election. Not the topic of this thread. Impossible to sustain for long without being caught. Penalties are steep, not worth the risk unless you own the local law enforcement officials.

Why are Republicans usually the ones getting caught?

Who was the famous wit who said not all Republicans are stupid, but all stupid people are Republicans? Maybe a little harsh, but there's a grain of truth there. Even more so, the entitled elite who have gotten away with anything and everything their whole lives are more likely to be Republicans. They don't think the rules apply to them. Occasionally they find out that voting in two different states is illegal.

Why do Republicans whine incessantly about "widespread" voter fraud while simultaneously being unable to find, charge, and convict these "millions" of fraudulent voters even while controlling the entire criminal justice system?

The answer is that Republicans are not actually worried about widespread voter fraud. They are using it as cover to disenfranchise voters who are likely to vote Democratic. Simple as that. Every damn time. See Florida.  See Georgia, Texas, MS, AL, WI ... etc.

When Republicans control government, they make it harder to vote. These hardships disproportionately fall on Democratic voters, by design. This benefits the Republicans in power.

When Democrats control government, they make it easier to vote. This benefits the party that can get the most votes. Often that is Democrats. 

Not sure what you are responding to, but was certainly not my post.  I never claimed that it was in the millions.  Several, perhaps hundreds of thousands maybe, but not millions.  I showed you thousands in just a few, select districts.  I doubt it was localized to just those few.  Image if similar numbers occurred everywhere.  It would number in the millions.  I do not have access or time to check every election.  But I have presented enough evidence of the few that I know that it could.

Of course it exists at the local level - all elections are local.  By that does not mean it cannot influence national results.  The 2000 election was decided by a few hundred votes.  With all the shenanigans that occurred in Florida, we will never know who actually carried the state.

My examples were from both parties.  Does that make them both stupid?  What about the elitist democrats who run our universities? 

Yes, Republicans make it harder to vote.  That cuts down on double voting and fraud.  Democrats want to make it easier.  Enough said.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 04, 2020, 02:07:25 PM
Way, way to early to actually look, but here is the current popular vote count, per Time (https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/):

            Biden:  69,036,555 Votes (50.02%)
            Trump: 66,753,430 Votes (48.36%)

The spread is currently less than 2 points for Biden, but this will change.

I'm not going to 'win' this poll, though, that's for sure!  :o
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 04, 2020, 02:17:05 PM
Well, I thought probably a bit below two, maybe a bit above, so I guess I didn’t do too bad.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Florifulgurator on November 05, 2020, 12:51:28 AM
Florida 2000

See Brooks Brothers Riot.

[...]


And here we go. Luckily Michigan is meanwhile called for Biden.

https://youtu.be/j2UWPJGykZE


Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 05, 2020, 02:51:25 AM
The spread has widened to 2.5 points.  It might get to 3.
Per Cook Political Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker):
Biden 71,583,116 votes 50.4%
Trump 68,058,907 votes 47.9%
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 05, 2020, 03:34:15 AM
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Gerntocratis#1 on November 05, 2020, 03:46:50 AM
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.

He actually gained votes with every demographic except white males. Who woulda thought?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: oren on November 05, 2020, 03:55:17 AM
With the highest turnout in something like a hundred years, no wonder votes were gained.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 05, 2020, 04:36:16 AM
I just checked 2016.
Trump got over 5 million more votes this time than last.
You would think that with four years of older voters dying he would have got less, but the opposite.

Of course.  With voting requirements loosened in just about every state, it was much easier for people to vote.  Consequently, it was not surprising that Trump received more votes than four years ago.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Gerntocratis#1 on November 05, 2020, 05:37:23 AM
With the highest turnout in something like a hundred years, no wonder votes were gained.

I meant in percentage not total votes.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 05, 2020, 08:17:26 PM
The following table is from today's electoral-vote.com (https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2020/Pres/Maps/Oct29.html#item-1) blog (yesterday's polls).  Rasmussen is know to have a strong Republican lean.  Without Rasmussen's poll, the average difference is +10.3.

Currently the vote spread is Biden +2.7.  It appears that the polling average had a Democratic bias of +7.6 (without the Rasmussen poll.)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 12:10:41 PM
Little more than I expected for Biden, but not much.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 06, 2020, 04:49:21 PM
From Cook Report
Biden  74,042,631   50.6%
Trump 69,763,002   47.7%

2.9% spread (and counting)

Quote
polling average had a Democratic bias of +7.6 (without the Rasmussen poll.)
7.4 now.  Come on, now ( ::) ), where are those postal-truck-loads full of Biden votes in Miami-Dade County?  That'll bring it down to 7 points or something.  Still horrible for the polling organizations!  [No, they will never find those trucks, and no one will prove they even existed, and there won't be throngs of angry disenfranchised voters there, either.  Have I started a new conspiracy, despite my attempt to debunk it in the same paragraph?]
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: gerontocrat on November 06, 2020, 05:21:23 PM
As a grumpy old gerontocrat I have to say the election shows why elections should not be between two grumpy old - gerontocrats. Our place is up in the gallery, pouring down scorn on you youngsters.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 06:12:35 PM
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in a nursing home or a cemetery.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: greylib on November 06, 2020, 06:27:34 PM
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in a nursing home or a cemetery.
More worrying is the possibility that they'll be mentally unfit. I believe that anyone, of any age, in a decision-making role should be tested at least annually. By an independent physician, not an appointee. Yes, you have the 25th Amendment, but it requires invocation by the Cabinet, which can't be an ideal way to handle it. [Would Reagan have passed as fit?]

For the record, I'm only a few months short of Gerontocrat's great age. I feel very fit, physically and mentally, but I'd be quite willing to be tested if I were in a job where my decisions could damage people, or an entire nation.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: gerontocrat on November 06, 2020, 07:07:37 PM
On the other hand, assuming it's Biden for the poisoned chalice of the Presidency, a good chance that if he goes west in the next 4 years then Kamala Harris would be the president.

Just think of all those totally hacked off racists and misogynists having to swallow that - wouldn't it  be marvellous.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 06, 2020, 08:13:27 PM
Problem with electing gerontocrats is that, in four years they may be in ... a cemetery.
I thought this was intentional - that this was the good news!  Why cannot more of these fellows follow in the footsteps of William Henry Harrison (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Henry_Harrison)?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: J Cartmill on November 06, 2020, 08:49:47 PM
Biden’s popular vote margin in California 4.03 million  is amazingly close to his margin nationwide 4.1 million.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 06, 2020, 10:40:37 PM
Biden’s popular vote margin in California 4.03 million  is amazingly close to his margin nationwide 4.1 million.
Wait...this means almost all of Biden's popular vote margin comes from just the state of California? He is tied in the other 49 states?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 06, 2020, 10:48:51 PM
No only are the essentially tied in the other 49 states, but the current vote count in the five contested states (NC, GA, PA, NV, and AZ) combined is:

Trump  10,613,832
Biden   10,613,328

Trump has a big lead in NC and looks to win the state.  Biden has a similar lead in NV and looks to win that state.  (Big leads compared to the other remaining states).  Biden has taken the lead in PA, and is a good position to win that state.  Biden has the lead in AZ, but the absentee ballot count is helping Trump close the margin.  Biden leads in GA by 1,500 votes with 8,000 absentee ballots outstanding and up to 9,000 military ballots remaining.  It could go either way, pending a recount.  Alaska will go to Trump.

All in all, I would rather be in Biden's position.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 06, 2020, 11:06:37 PM
It means counting in the largest states (CA, NY) is very slow. Always has been. Many more votes for Biden are yet to be counted. Nobody cares because CA and NY are reliably Democratic, so there is no drama.

At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.

The Republican legislature of PA rejected a law to allow early counting of mail ballots. Due to COVID, and the expected huge increase in mail ballots, election officials wanted to move up the date counting starts.

PA Republicans didn't allow counting before election day, Trump Republicans say counting after election day is "fraud"

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 12:08:07 AM
Quote
At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.
We didn't have so many mail-in ballots in 2016, did we? How long did it take then to get the popular vote? I remember Hillary conceding late Tuesday or wee hours Wednesday, am I misremembering?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 07, 2020, 12:38:32 AM
Quote
At this time in 2016 Clinton was far behind in the popular vote count.
We didn't have so many mail-in ballots in 2016, did we? How long did it take then to get the popular vote? I remember Hillary conceding late Tuesday or wee hours Wednesday, am I misremembering?

You are correct.  The election was over late Tuesday night / early Wednesday morning.  At the time they were virtually tied in the popular vote.  The addition votes that were counted during the following days (weeks?) gave Clinton her final edge.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 07, 2020, 12:53:36 AM
Clinton conceded before many, many votes were counted. She was behind in both the EC and popular vote, but what mattered is that the swing states finished counting and Trump had very narrow wins in 3 states - WI, MI, and PA - that put him over 270 EC votes.

As CA and NY votes came in, she won the popular vote by 2+%. Biden is already ahead by 2+% with many, many votes yet to count. Even more so than 4 years ago due to the sorting of Dem/GOP into the mail/in-person-voting partisan difference.

We have more mail ballots because Trump told his followers that mail ballots were "fraudulent" while Dem voters greatly preferred mail ballots to standing in long lines with Trump voters not wearing masks. The usual pattern in all previous elections was that more GOPers voted by mail than Dems. That was strongly reversed this year, due to a pandemic coronavirus called COVID-19. You may have heard of it. Trump supporters think this virus is no big deal, don't wear masks. Dem voters listen to the scientists, wear masks, avoid crowds - like at polling places. Some states went to extraordinary lengths to make mail voting easier. PA had 10 times the normal mail vote.

Final popular vote margin? Who knows? More than it is now.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 03:28:22 AM
I may have heard of 'it', but I wouldn't dare mention it here.   ::) :-\
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 03:31:07 AM
Quote
The usual pattern in all previous elections was that more GOPers voted by mail than Dems.
Then wouldn't Hillary have had an exaggerated lead early in the counting, instead of a reduced one?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 07, 2020, 03:52:25 AM
Exaggerated lead due to GOP mail ballots counted early, as most were in 2016?

No, just the opposite.

The late counting of mail ballots is a new feature, courtesy of COVID. In 2016 the few mail ballots were counted quickly and easily, mostly on or before election day, depending on the state. Each state sets its own election laws and rules. Florida counts all the early vote and mail ballots FIRST. In 2016 this gave a slight boost to Trumps early return numbers there, but the total number was small, so not even noticeable.

Pennsylvania counts mail ballots LAST, but in 2016 there were only a few hundred thousand compared to 2-3 million this year.

Oregon has 100% vote-by-mail, has been that way for many years.

Clinton was ahead early in the evening in many of the eastern swing states. Many people went to bed thinking Clinton had won it. Late counted ballots, some of then mail ballots that were slightly tilted to GOP, erased the early Clinton lead.


Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 01:58:55 PM
Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker) update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 votes   50.7%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 votes   47.6%

3.1% spread, at this point.

Somewhere I read that many of the 'called' states only have a part of their ballots cast - it's not just 'Pennsylvania'.  California, for example (https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/california/) only has 66% of its vote counted; when the counting is complete there, Biden's popular vote lead will increase by maybe 3 million votes.  The national popular vote spread could pretty easily grow to 5 points, I think, or maybe even 5.01.  :)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 02:02:36 PM
Well then, looks like I guessed wrong  :(
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 02:10:20 PM
If they both declare victory I swear I will scream...
The Donald declared victory 2 days ago (in the press briefing where he told so many lies that at least 3 networks broke away from it 'in the middle').  I expect The Joe to declare victory 'soon'.  So, Tom, will we hear it?  ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 07, 2020, 07:22:48 PM
AAAAARRRRRGHH!!!!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 07, 2020, 07:32:54 PM
LOL
 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: wehappyfew on November 08, 2020, 07:31:55 PM
I'll put this here, as it discusses popular vote margins and their implications for control of the government in future elections:

Quote
Within a very few years — indeed by 2024 — it’s going to be quite possible for a Republican presidential candidate to lose the election by ten or twelve million votes and still win the Electoral College. Within 20 years, states that represent 30% of the US population are going to control 70% of the Senate.

None of this is democracy in even a loose sense. This is white supremacy encoded as our fundamental constitutional law. (Claims that this election indicated that Republicans are making inroads among non-white voters are wildly exaggerated. Black voters still rejected them by something approaching ten to one margins, and the 30ish percent of “Latino” voters who voted for Trump shrinks drastically when you remove “Latinos” who very much consider themselves white, and will certainly be coded as white by pragmatic Republicans who realize that inventing more white people is critical to the GOP’s survival, even with the massive advantage provided to it by a Constitution that, under current conditions, is basically a roadmap to herrenvolk democracy).

The glass half full is that Joe Biden is going to end up with about 11 million more votes than any presidential candidate in history prior to this week. The glass half empty is that Donald Trump is going to end up with about four million more.

I’ll admit to falling victim to massive optimism bias: While I didn’t really think anything like a Hoover/Goldwater/McGovern style blowout is possible any more under contemporary American political conditions (this election was among other things a social science experiment in how many votes can a Republican presidential candidate get when the candidate is literally the worst person in the world), I did think it was possible that Biden would win the popular vote by something like 55 to 43 percent — that, after all, was a result that was well within the boundaries of most of the last national polls.

It’s going to end up more like 51 to 47 percent after all the votes are counted. 47 percent of the country that bothered to vote voted for Donald Trump. If Trump had demonstrated even the most minimal competence in handling the pandemic, he probably would have been re-elected.

Of course the difficulty with this counterfactual is that if he had done that he wouldn’t be Donald Trump: a huge portion of that 47 percent is literally voting for him because of his most loathsome qualities, so people who wonder what would happen if you had a GOP candidate who was a less stupid fascist have to deal with the difficulty that fascism is and indeed celebrates stupidity by definition. A less demagogic and more competent version of Trump is to a considerable extent a contradiction in terms, or at least we better hope so.

The path forward can be captured by one word: Georgia. That is the hope — that the demographics of urbanization can overcome both the massive structural advantage that Republicans have, and that can’t be changed short of a new constitutional order, and the fact that 47 percent of this country, more or less, is actually just fine with authoritarian ethno-nationalism, when it was presented to them in the most undisguised form possible.

From https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/11/a-sober-assessment (https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2020/11/a-sober-assessment)

------------------------------

Me again:

Removing Trump is just a temporary relief of one symptom of our fundamental political problem - the oligarchic, neo-fascistic, white supremacist Republican party that has re-aligned American politics. Welding the southern Jim-Crow Democrats to the corporatists, the evangelical white Protestants, the white-wing Catholics, and the newest members - the lowIQ-anon crazy conspiracists.

This new coalition can't win free fair elections and demographics are trending against them, but the structural advantages of the Electoral College, the unrepresentative Senate, gerrymandering after the 2020 census, voter disenfranchisement, etc could put them back in full control very quickly.

The fight isn't over, it has barely begun. This election was a tactical victory, but not a strategic victory - it just delayed disaster.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 08, 2020, 11:40:20 PM
I note Fox News (https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/general-results) doesn't show as many total votes as Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker), but Fox shows "% of vote counted" (or words to that effect - precincts reporting?).  California is up to 86%, New York is at 79%, New Jersey is at 77% and Alaska is at 50%.  Several states (&  DC) are in the low to mid- 90's. 

Cook Report update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 75,938,488 votes   50.7%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 71,176,368 votes   47.6%
Their published percentages are unchanged, however.  Still a 3.1 point spread.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 09, 2020, 04:39:48 PM
Strange:  Biden lost some votes!

Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker) update:
Joe Biden         75,189,817 75,938,488 75,624,127 votes   50.7% 50.6%
Donald Trump   70,628,284 71,176,368 71,225,078 votes   47.6% 47.7%
Their published percentages changed - 2.9 point spread.

Wikipedia  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)has slightly fewer votes counted but the same percentages:
Joe Biden         75,551,684 votes   50.6%
Donald Trump   71,189,789 votes   47.7%

Tomorrow is the day I said we'd call 'final'.  I'll certainly look, but if some states have lots of precincts not reporting, we'll have to look again later, as either a 'confirmation' or 'we threw mud at the wall and something stuck'.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2020, 04:47:43 PM
Per the Associated Press this morning

Biden:   50.7%; 75,470,075
Trump:  47.7%; 70,962,034
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 09, 2020, 06:21:48 PM
2.9 to 3 percent then?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 09, 2020, 09:37:00 PM
2.9 to 3 percent then?

Somewhere in that range, as of early this morning, subject to change in the future.

Edit, Per Associated Press, this afternoon:

Biden:   50.7%; 75,644,360
Trump:  47.6%; 71,055,785

So the AP currently has a 3.1% spread ;)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: karl dubhe2 on November 09, 2020, 09:51:02 PM
I was horribly wrong in my prediction of nearly 15%.

I'm still shocked that nearly 50% of the voters wanted to continue with the circus.  Well, more disturbed than shocked.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 10, 2020, 12:31:24 AM
I suggested I'd use Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election), if possible...

                         Biden               Trump
Popular vote    75,677,793    71,264,360
Percentage    50.6%            47.6%

3.0% spread.  The webpage says 95% votes counted as of Nov. 9, 2020, 2:07 p.m. EST

(I was busy all morning)

Several posters claimed "2-5" range in posts.  You are winners!  You get the kudos!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: vox_mundi on November 10, 2020, 12:53:42 AM
https://youtu.be/msXE3japRi8
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: oren on November 10, 2020, 01:46:24 AM
I voted for 2-5% for Biden. Hopefully it should lean towards 5% and get him the electoral college.
Not too bad. My confidence was low and I am glad it turned out the way it did, although I am disturbed by what it signals.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 10, 2020, 01:57:54 AM
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,071,710
Trump: 47.6%; 71,287,537

So with California only 88% reported the spread is now 3.2% and increasing.

Edit: I estimate that after California is finished counting Biden will lead Trump by over 7 million votes (this estimate includes consideration of the fact that other predominately blue states like New York and Illinois are also not finished counting).
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 11, 2020, 09:28:07 AM
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,983,892
Trump: 47.5%; 71,915,939

So with New York only with 80% of votes reported, the spread is now 3.3% and increasing.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 11, 2020, 05:23:50 PM
Biden’s Popular Vote Margin Now Bigger Than Obama’s (https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/10/bidens-popular-vote-margin-now-bigger-than-obamas/)

November 10, 2020 at 11:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

Quote
The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 5,060,175 votes, Ballot Access News reports.

That is a larger number than the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 which was 4,982,296 votes.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on November 11, 2020, 06:38:44 PM
Biden’s Popular Vote Margin Now Bigger Than Obama’s (https://politicalwire.com/2020/11/10/bidens-popular-vote-margin-now-bigger-than-obamas/)

November 10, 2020 at 11:07 pm EST By Taegan Goddard

Quote
The latest election tallies show that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump by 5,060,175 votes, Ballot Access News reports.

That is a larger number than the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 which was 4,982,296 votes.

Obama won in 2012 by 3.9% (51.1 - 47.2).  Biden's lead is currently 3.3% (50.8 - 47.5).
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: greylib on November 11, 2020, 11:10:21 PM
Without checking the facts, it looks as if you're both right.

Obama's 2012 margin would be bigger in percentage terms, Biden's 2020 margin bigger in vote count (more people voted).

So it's a win-win! Everybody happy?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: gerontocrat on November 11, 2020, 11:26:08 PM
Without checking the facts, it looks as if you're both right.

Obama's 2012 margin would be bigger in percentage terms, Biden's 2020 margin bigger in vote count (more people voted).

So it's a win-win! Everybody happy?
Not the Republicans
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 12, 2020, 12:31:25 AM
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 12, 2020, 12:50:24 AM
From Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election):

2012
Nominee           Barack Obama   Mitt Romney    
Popular vote      65,915,795       60,933,504     difference:  4,982,291
Percentage        51.1%              47.2%            difference:  3.9%

2020 (96% complete)
Nominee            Joe Biden          Donald Trump    
Popular vote      77,400,101        72,266,137     difference:  5,133,964
Percentage        50.8%               47.4%            difference:  3.4% 
(Difference is increasing as CA votes get counted.  NY too?)

Yup, Greylib, my source and Walrus's were both accurate. (I'm not surprised.) 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 12, 2020, 01:16:05 AM
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...

Electoral college could end up 306 to 232 which is 56.9% to 43.1% which would be 13.7% margin  ;) :P
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 12, 2020, 01:28:19 AM
Thread title specifies popular vote, crandles.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: karl dubhe2 on November 12, 2020, 02:46:18 PM
I noticed four of us voted 12-16%.
Sorry for you...

For me?   No, I'm not the one you should feel sorry for.  After all, I don't live in the USA.   I voted high because I had hope for the USA.  That hope is dead, sorry.   If 'we' should feel sorry for anyone it's the people who will have to live in the USA.   
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 12, 2020, 04:38:51 PM
I feel sorry for the people on Earth whose lives are affected by the US.

I, too, "voted high because I had hope for the USA."  My 11.5-12.5 popular vote difference 'vote' ["12"] didn't manifest.  We're not as enlightened as I presumed we were.

By "enlightened" I mean being so aware of the present and future consequences of anthropogenically influenced climate weirding that voting for anybody who doesn't have an inclination to do something about it or the ability to receive enough votes to do much about it is a no-brainer don't-do-it.

Other people's definition of enlightened will differ.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 13, 2020, 04:00:53 PM
Per AP with New York at 80% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 93% counted, the spread is now up to 3.5% and increasing:

Biden:  50.9%; 77,708,023
Trump: 47.4%; 72,439,067
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 15, 2020, 04:07:08 PM
Per AP with New York at 81% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 96% counted, the spread is now up to 3.7% and increasing:

Biden:  51%; 78,662,167
Trump: 47.3%; 72,936,343
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 18, 2020, 04:27:44 PM
Current 51.0 to 47.2 spread 3.8%

If remaining ~3.8m votes similar in % terms to last 3 million which were 59.4% to 37.9% then I project votes as 81.46m to 74.86m so 51.15% to 47.01% so spread of 4.14%

Who know which administration that will be? asked Trump

Umm ... Everyone but Trump it seems
and there are 81m reasons why!
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 20, 2020, 03:36:06 PM
Per AP with New York at 84% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 98% counted, the spread is now up to 3.8% and increasing:

Biden:  51.1%; 79,685,131
Trump: 47.2%; 73,701,667
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: WildFit on November 20, 2020, 06:00:59 PM
Per AP with New York at 84% counted (New York is not required to certify their vote count until December 8, 2020) and California at 98% counted, the spread is now up to 3.8% and increasing:

Biden:  51.1%; 79,685,131
Trump: 47.2%; 73,701,667


51.1-47.2 = 3.9 so which of the numbers is incorrect or did i miss something ?
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 20, 2020, 10:06:02 PM
From the Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker) (source provided so you can check my data), I get

Biden               Trump               Other
Votes               Votes                Votes
79,713,868      73,725,300       2,866,967
51.00%            47.17%            1.83%
      
B/T difference:  3.83%   

Biden's percentage went down.  I wonder if the Georgia recount numbers are involved.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 21, 2020, 01:36:52 AM

Biden's percentage went down.  I wonder if the Georgia recount numbers are involved.

I rather doubt that 51.1% figure coming between these figures

Biden %      Biden votes  Trump votes  Other votes
0.5100354092   79672363   73689996   2847115
0.5100660507   79720247   73724487   2849234

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 21, 2020, 05:00:38 PM
From the Cook Report (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker), I get
156,484,522 total votes and ...

Biden               Trump               Other
Votes               Votes                Votes
79,827,499      73,794,344       2,862,679  (hmmm, this 'Other' number went down  ??? )

51.013%            47.158%            1.829%
     
B-T difference:  3.855%   

Will it get to 3.90%?  Biden would need approximately 90% of 90,000 additional votes (or 80% of 125,000) to reach this milestone. 

To reach 4.00%, Biden would need approximately 90% of 300,000 additional votes (or 80% of 400,000) to reach this milestone. 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 21, 2020, 07:21:34 PM
Several thousand more votes counted (none for "Other") since this morning (my time).

Biden           Trump           Other
Votes           Votes           Vote
79,835,585   73,800,546   2,862,679   
         
51.014%           47.157%            1.829%   
B-T difference: 3.856%


So, if 14,288 changes the difference by .0009%, the US needs 2.4 million more votes (at that B/T ratio - 57% for Biden) to make the B-T difference 4.0%; only 734,000 votes to make the B-T difference 3.90%. 
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 21, 2020, 08:52:51 PM

Will it get to 3.90%?  Biden would need approximately 90% of 90,000 additional votes (or 80% of 125,000) to reach this milestone. 

To reach 4.00%, Biden would need approximately 90% of 300,000 additional votes (or 80% of 400,000) to reach this milestone.

NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results?icid=election_marquee
says there is 2.95m more votes to be counted. 1.86m from New York state. So I am projecting 4.2% margin - 51.18%(rounded uo) to 46.97% (rounded down)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: vox_mundi on November 22, 2020, 11:30:04 PM
... edit: from America's Finest News Source ...

‘Your Honor, I’m Ready To Present,’ Says Giuliani Pulling Rotted Melon, Stray Cat Out Of Old Burlap Sack
https://politics.theonion.com/your-honor-i-m-ready-to-present-says-giuliani-pulli-1845716203

-----------------------------------------

Thx sidd
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: sidd on November 23, 2020, 05:59:20 AM
Re: "most trusted news source"

Careful there. The official motto is "America's Finest News Source."

sidd
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 23, 2020, 06:45:05 PM
An additional 27,086 votes counted (per Cook (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker)) since I last looked (a couple days ago).  74% went to Biden and 25% went to Trump (1% Other).  At this rate, about ½ million ballots will need to be counted for Biden to lead Trump by 4.00 points.  If there are 2.9 million ballots to be counted, this (74% to Biden) will lead to a 4.66 point difference.  Even at the 57% to Biden rate, with these 2.9 m ballots, Biden will end up leading by a spot over 4.0 points.  Keeping the NY ballots at 74% Biden and the rest at the 57% rate, the final point spread will be around 4.4.  So I think Crandles is on the right track.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 23, 2020, 07:45:14 PM
Using small numbers of votes reported, the percentages vary wildly eg your 57% to 74%. Hence I am using percentage over last 3m votes 59.97% to 36.91% which is much more stable eg last 660k votes reported Biden had 59.85%.

My projection seems to be drifting upwards slowly. Also yes, it is quite plausible that NY late reported votes will favour Biden more than the states that have reported last 3m votes. I haven't built this into my projection.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: vox_mundi on November 24, 2020, 12:45:15 AM
(https://images.theweek.com/sites/default/files/20201120edhoc-a.jpg)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 24, 2020, 05:27:42 PM
Cook  (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker)reports 185,193 more ballots counted: 6% for Other!  65% for Biden (hmmm: right between the previous two figures (57% and 74%).  Crandles is smart to use a larger 'sample' to project with.  Nonetheless, 65% Biden for remaining 2.73 million ballots [derived from a number Crandles posted above] yields a (projected) 4.36 point spread.

The current point spread is 3.9.

I never realized before how long it took for some states to count ballots.  Maybe related to this:  the last time I voted in Canaan, New Hampshire, a town of 3,000+ people, the ballot consisted of five pages of races and ballot questions on photocopied 8½ x 11" paper (single sided); "Mark selected option with an "X".  After I voted I was asked if I was willing to volunteer after the poll closed to help count the votes.  Along with 20 or 25 others (c. 1% of the adult population), the pages were separated and a partner and I 'did' our question, with one of us reading the selected name and the other one of us tallying it (four sides of a square makes 4 and a slash makes 5, we were instructed).  We switched jobs half way through.  It was hard.  It was hard saying the right name sometimes ("Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Sabastion, Sabastion, Jones ...") and hard to mark beside the correct name sometimes.  (After three "Sabastions", moving back to "Jones" could be 'difficult', and after "Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Jones, Sabastion, Sabastion", the last "Sabastion" could be 'difficult', too.  If any race was close, a recount would have been in order.  We had our share of spoiled ballots (an "X" by each name) and "I meant to vote for Jones" which a computer would have missed.  I think most of us were finished around 1 am.  (I think my partner and I 'did' two races; some pairs did 3, but it might have been 3 or 4 per pair.  There were probably about 2,000 ballots cast.  [Canaan cast 2,052 votes (https://www.vnews.com/Election-2020-charts-for-Upper-Valley-VT-NH-towns-Nov-3-2020-results-37107716) in recent election.  Wikipedia  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canaan,_New_Hampshire)says the adult population in 2010 was 3092.)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on November 24, 2020, 08:54:47 PM
Caught 4 recent updates to New York votes which have ranged from 65.3% to 74.8% for Biden with the total at 71.46% so it does look like these will come in at higher % than rest of states recently reporting.

Building this in, projected votes could have margin as wide as

Biden 81.75m votes 51.30% Trump 74.68m votes 46.86% so spread 4.44%
a win by 7.07m votes

(also switched to last 2.35m votes which are at 61.17% for Biden for projecting states other than NY. Ought to exclude NY state's votes from these but doubt it is significant but my projection could be slightly biased high now.)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on November 24, 2020, 10:37:57 PM
Per AP tonight:

Biden:  50.8%; 76,071,710
Trump: 47.6%; 71,287,537

So with California only 88% reported the spread is now 3.2% and increasing.

Edit: I estimate that after California is finished counting Biden will lead Trump by over 7 million votes (this estimate includes consideration of the fact that other predominately blue states like New York and Illinois are also not finished counting).

It is interesting that my earlier estimate that Biden would lead Trump by over 7 million votes seem to closely match crandles' latest estimates :o
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 25, 2020, 10:34:37 PM

Cook  (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker)reports  290,645 more ballots counted (since my last post): 73% for Biden (hmmm: no longer just between the figures 57% and 74%.   Does this suggest it is mostly NY and CA ballots?  (3% of newly counted ballots were for Other.)

73% Biden for remaining 2.44 million ballots [derived from a number Crandles posted several days ago and subtracting Cook-reported 'new ballots counted'] yields a (projected) 4.6 point spread!  Going up!

The current point spread (per Cook) is 3.98.

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 02, 2020, 10:59:53 AM
Per the AP, with New York at 95% reporting:

Biden:  51.3%, 80,952,796
Trump: 47%;   74,083,911

So we are now at a 4.3% spread, and we are rapidly approaching a 7m vote difference.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 02, 2020, 04:28:06 PM
It's been a week - how refreshing to not be compelled to look daily!

The current point spread - Biden % minus Trump % (per Cook) is 4.39%.

Cook  (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker)reports 1,071,699 more ballots counted since my last post: 81% for Biden (hmmm: no longer between the boundary figures of 57% and 74%.  (only 1.7% of newly counted ballots were for Other.)

81% Biden for remaining 1.37 million ballots [derived from a number Crandles posted nearly 2 weeks ago and subtracting Cook-reported 'new ballots counted' since then] yields a (projected) 4.9 point spread!   

Might there really be a million ballots to count?  If NY is 95% counted (per AP), then given the Cook reported 8,359,984 votes counted there, there are nearly 418,000 ballots to count in NY.  I read that 99% of California's vote is counted, so there could be nearly 175,000 ballots to count there.  If the total remaining outstanding ballots is actually only 500,000 (and not 1.37 million), at 81% to Biden, the final point spread would be 4.6% and vote difference 7.25 million.  (75% to Biden would give 4.5% spread and the vote difference would be over 7.1 million.)
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on December 03, 2020, 02:46:06 AM
NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/president-results
say est  1119736 votes to count. It wouldn't surprise if there are fewer than that to come in, the total votes est at 159.023m is reducing which shouldn't be surprising, some will be found to be invalid.

A large chunk of NYork votes came in at 85.8% for Biden nearly 690k for Biden. This pushed up my projections to a 4.7% spread 51.45% to 46.73%.

Is this 85.8% exceptional or will remaining 720k votes from NYork be similar? Perhaps counties with largest numbers of mail in votes tend to report last and they tend to be heavily democrat? So projection creeping up a little more from 4.7% wouldn't surprise me but I am doubting it will reach as much as 4.9% but not totally impossible.

Adding all remaining votes to Biden would just reach a 5% spread, so unless they find a lot more votes, a 5% spread is as close to impossible as makes no difference.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 03, 2020, 12:39:32 PM
It really feels weird that, in the 21st Century, it takes this long to get the final totals.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: The Walrus on December 03, 2020, 02:15:52 PM
It really feels weird that, in the 21st Century, it takes this long to get the final totals.
Some blame the Help America Vote Act passed in 2002 for the slowdown in vote counting.  This helped to ensure that the preliminary results, displayed on election night, become the true vote totals.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/857419/why-does-vote-counting-take-so-long-in-the-us/amp/

Counting was much faster prior to the increase in absentee ballots.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 03, 2020, 08:03:11 PM
If a jurisdiction relies only on professional (paid and previously budgeted) staff, and 30% of voters chose absentee ballots, it takes time to verify every signature.  If you own or rent (previously budgeted) signature comparison equipment, it would go faster.  In some states, a voter who voted by mail could 'change their mind' and vote in person; in these states not only does the signature need verification but checking to see if the voter voted in person has to also be checked.  Some states allow military absentee ballots to arrive quite late.
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 04, 2020, 06:01:10 PM
Per AP, with New York 98% reporting, we are up to a 4.5% spread and almost a 7M vote difference:

Biden:  51.4%, 81,150,731
Trump: 46.9%; 74,170,241
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: crandles on December 04, 2020, 07:13:06 PM
Down to 392k votes to count only 22k from New York.

Current 81259500 51.32% to 74207681 46.86% so gone over 7m votes.


Projected 81525k 51.36% 74328k 46.82% for a spread of 4.53% 7.197m vote difference
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 04, 2020, 07:44:55 PM
Recent batch of 312,443 ballots counted (per Cook (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker) since my Dec. 2 post) were 'only' 69% for Biden.  ('Other' went down 2,575.  It went down once before - something is screwy!  Maybe Trump is on to something?  :P :-X)  Although Cook's total ballots counted is nearly 20,000 higher than what Crandles just posted, the percentages virtually match (51.31% to 46.86%).  (We must be following the same race!)

Reaching a spread of 4.50 (absolute, not rounded) points will be a stretch, but doable if there are 200,000 ballots to count (at 70% for Biden).

Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: AbruptSLR on December 05, 2020, 01:08:56 AM
Per the AP, with 99% of New York reporting, their vote count difference is now 7,059,780

Biden:  51.4%, 81,255,933
Trump: 46.9%, 74,196,153
Title: Re: Poll: Spread between Trump and Biden (popular vote)
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 07, 2020, 07:32:50 PM
Recent batch of 16,249 ballots counted (per Cook (https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker) since my Dec. 4 post) were 68% for Biden.  (No votes for 'Other': with a national average of 1.8% there should have been some, and the 'Other' total went down between the 2nd and 4th.  :-\ ) 
Biden: 81,281,672   
Trump: 74,221,585   
Other: 2,898,868   
Biden-Trump spread:  4.457%

Reaching a spread of 4.50 (absolute, not rounded) points is unlikely, as it would require 185,000 ballots at 70% for Biden.  New York and most states' elections are now certified.  California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri and New Jersey are not yet certified, though.

(Wikipedia  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)indicates [in side bar] that 2,654 more votes for Biden and Trump have been counted (more than what Cook says), 90% of which are for Biden, but these little numbers affect the B-T spread insignificantly.  I know: every vote counts!)