Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: crandles on February 22, 2013, 12:50:53 AM

Title: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on February 22, 2013, 12:50:53 AM
Looks to me like we have just had coldest day north on 80N per DMI since 2004.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2013.png&hash=5c9caa814addcc02aca5d9156ab29b0e)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on February 22, 2013, 01:07:38 AM
Good topic, good opener.  :)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Jim Williams on February 22, 2013, 02:00:21 PM
Anyone care to tell me where all this cold is coming from?  It looks like it's coming from the South Pole; which is a bit far afield.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Jim on February 22, 2013, 03:23:19 PM
Hi Jim (not another one! ;D ),
There seems to be a large high pressure area in the Beaufort Sea/Arctic Basin area that has a mass of cold right in the center. I wonder if this will add anything to the final ice thickness this season?

Anyone care to tell me where all this cold is coming from?  It looks like it's coming from the South Pole; which is a bit far afield.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 23, 2013, 08:05:15 PM
I think this is going to be a very useful thread this year.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: adancau on February 23, 2013, 09:08:17 PM
First of all, long time lurker, without any formal training on the subject (only what I've picked up here). So I apologize in advance if this isn't what I think it is.

Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 23, 2013, 09:29:56 PM
First of all, long time lurker, without any formal training on the subject (only what I've picked up here). So I apologize in advance if this isn't what I think it is.

Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?

A reply from another first time poster!

That is a real feature, and quite unusual. There is a large section of sea ice around the Beaufort/Chukchi area that's spilling into the Bering strait in the last while. You can see it clearly on the MODIS visual imagery here http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013053.terra.4km
While leads and polynyas are common all year round, this kind of break up is quite rare so early in the year.

Last year there was a similar occurrence during April, which opened the Beaufort sea up very early http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012101.terra.4km

I think we all know how high the Beaufort SSTs got last summer.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on February 24, 2013, 12:30:30 AM
Has anyone noticed the big crack (?) that starts from around Barrow and curves towards the North Pole? It began forming about 3 days ago and has propagated quite a lot. It's visible on the IJIS Arctic Sea Ice Monitor
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

Is this something normal - what I mean is - has it happened before?

Hi adancau, welcome to the Forum!

On the Arctic Sea Ice Monitor page, click on the "<Prev." button near the top-right. IJIS will display the previous day's sea ice concentration map.

Then, half-way down the right-hand menu, to the right of "Wind Speed and Direction:" click the "Overlay" button.

This shows wind-speed history vectors (from WindSat) over top of that day's sea ice concentration (from AMSR2). Neat, huh?

NOTE: You *MAY* need to go back 2 days to see the various overlays as it take time to collect and process the data. But today's data WILL be up 3 days from now. Feel free to play with the other overlays too. They can be toggled on or off as you desire. The "Sea Level Pressure" overlay also shows the prevailing winds for that day. 8)

As an example, see my annotated screen capture attached below:
IJIS.2013-02-21.sic+wind.gif

Now on to your question: No, is not really normal to have a such a large crack appear so suddenly and following so exactly the contours of a single high pressure system (wind field). The wind isn't strong enough to do this to normal, healthy pack ice.

It is yet more evidence that the sea ice is thin, salty, and weak in shear strength. Ominous implications for August 2013. There's an ongoing discussion on the appearance of these flaw leads over at the ASI blog on the Feb 2013 Open Thread.

Again, welcome. Looking forward to your contributions.We're all amateurs here, even the PhD scientists that comment.  ??? If it were easy, it would already be solved.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 24, 2013, 07:15:18 PM
I've done some digging around regards this long fracture/lead in Beaufort. Nothing as big has occurred since 1999 in QuikScat or Ascat, the weather doesn't seem that abnormal, so I think it's probably mainly due to abnormally thin sea ice.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/the-beaufort-sea-ice-lead-of-february.html
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: werther on February 25, 2013, 10:22:55 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FAirtemp1000Mbanomaly15092012to14022013small_zps9bff574d.jpg&hash=6e118a401a9dfdb594ab5dac5c53aeb9)

I thought it would be a good idea to elaborate a bit on my amateur concept ‘winter power’ here.
After three days of flu I’ve been puzzling a bit on CAD to produce the map above.
First, I use the term ‘winter power’ somewhat in line with the ‘Hellman-mark’, used to give an inter-annual comparability on severeness of winter.  The Hellman-mark is built up by the cumulation of all below-zero daily means during the winter season.
In that line, I used NCEP/NCAR to get something similar for the temperature anomaly over the whole Arctic. The method can only be used to compare different winters. It gives no information on specific anomalous periods in a single season.
But geographically, some interesting features can be scrutinized.
Up to 14 February, the mean anomaly over the Arctic Ocean was +2.5 dC. That’s quite high, though I have not taken time to check more winters.
The large +4dC area over the Bering side is due to late refreeze during Sep and Oct and the anomalous persistent high through Jan. That high was filled with unusually warm air, connected to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming event.
The +8dC area centered on the Olga Strait, northern Barentsz Sea indicates continued, anomalous lack of sea ice. It allows constant warmth release from the top ocean water layer.
The +3dC area in the Baffin Bay tells something about the state of sea ice there…
I rounded up these images for some background:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FPressureandwindanomaly15092012to14022013small_zps6bf895ec.jpg&hash=6a5b8a7493b9bc292688fac9ebb522fc)

The 200, 500Mb and SLP anomalies make clear why the air temperature anomaly ‘is what it is’. The whole Polar cell has been anomalously thick all winter. It had its main positive anomaly over the Laptev Sea. The main negative anomaly has been over the North Sea in Europe.
The whole set-up is AO-negative, leading to constant anomalies against the climatic westerly wind pattern.
So far, this winter produces along clear regional specifics, well in line with the general AGW trend.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: werther on February 25, 2013, 10:47:57 PM
Some thoughts I’d like to add to the post on ‘winter-power’…
For the ‘thick polar cell’… I read Wayne’s suggestions on constant adiabatic heat loss over the winter pack. I’m tempted to see an analogy here.
On the cold since 14 February: it shows on the NCEP/NCAR cumulation graph. The Bering side warm spot is getting smaller. A negative anomaly is developing in the Lincoln Sea. It is very interesting to see how long this lasts.

We have seen a parade of weirdness since September. I’ve been considering NOAA reporting 2012 as tenth warmest year on global temperature. I’ve seen ‘Wetteronline’ publishing an op-ad ‘Global warming is stagnating (21022013)’ (nonsense, IMHO). In my mind, I’m wrestling with a concept linking most large-scale climatic ocean-atmosphere features. We know heat is being stored in deeper ocean layers. In that sense, there is no stagnation. But the different consequences don’t just show up in the expected orderly form. The enormous volume loss from the Arctic sea ice and the GIS may very well have had an influence upon ENSO. We should not be surprised to see some temporary effects that contradict the trend . The growing heat-imbalance could show up soon in a form and region we haven’t become familiar with yet.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 26, 2013, 09:39:35 PM
Werther,

Earlier this evening I saw this graphic posted by somebody, it was here but I can't remember where.
http://diogene.net/infos-news/info-news3/january.jpg (http://diogene.net/infos-news/info-news3/january.jpg)

Showing January sea ice concentration in Barents January.

I've knocked up this graphic for you, but I do get you mixed up with Wipneus for some weird reason.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8369/8511351736_647d4098f0_o.jpg (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8369/8511351736_647d4098f0_o.jpg)

I've taken NCEP/NCAR temperature timeseries, saved as numbers not image, redone for stated pressure levels, and graphed as anomalies from 1950-1979 mean. The temperatures being for the region from 65degN to the Pole between 0deg Lon (Greenwich) and 90deg E, i.e. covering Barents.

The Barents warming you find is part of a long pattern since 2005 which is concentrated in the lower part of the atmosphere and as far as I can see is due to loss of sea ice in Barents.
 I have map plots showing the warming back to 2006, but it really is a pain to upload so many plots. If you want to see them just ask.

Check out 100mb which had a +6degC anomaly, one of a select few years with strong positive anomalies in temperature.

er

that's it....  ;D
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 27, 2013, 05:43:32 AM
The AVHRR imagery reveals that much of the remaining Beaufort sea ice shredded between 26 Feb, 2013 1903 and 27 Feb, 2013 0326.

The images are attached for comparison. Also I have posted them at:

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4real/home/arctic-sea-ice-polar-avhrr

The Feb 26-27 images are in the middle column.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 27, 2013, 07:46:00 AM
Bloody Hell!  :o
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on February 27, 2013, 08:14:25 AM
Gob.Smacked.

Apocalypse4Real, this event NEEDS it's own thread! We are WAY past Records and oddities.

Think about the History.  :-[
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 27, 2013, 09:24:34 AM
Here's my own take on the news:

http://econnexus.org/arctic-sea-ice-is-cracking-under-the-strain/ (http://econnexus.org/arctic-sea-ice-is-cracking-under-the-strain/)

Do you suppose that 1,738 sceptics on Twitter will be convinced by the evidence?

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: lanevn on February 27, 2013, 10:49:58 AM
Do you think it will not refreeze this spring?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: FrankD on February 27, 2013, 12:24:34 PM
This means area will increase - those leads will freeze over and some of this slushy will head out into the Bering boosting area there. Pretty sure we're at least even money on beating last years max. The usual suspects will have their day in the sun.

Awesome news...

...well, until the sun gets back above the horizon... :(
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on February 27, 2013, 12:40:11 PM
Do you think it will not refreeze this spring?

What makes you think it hasn't already refrozen?

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013057.terra.4km (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2013057.terra.4km)

The weaknesses are still there after the refreezing.

I think about 40 days earlier and this may well rapidly reduce because it is colder now than in 40 days time.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 27, 2013, 03:00:20 PM
Lodger,

I think it's fine here.

Regards scale. I've knitted together a jpg of the two 250m resolution modis images that cover the main fracturing. I've worked on the assumption that this means 250m X 250m sides of each pixcel. I've used an image editor to work out the sides of a box whose diagonal describes the dimension I want to measure. Then Pythagoras theorem to work out the diagonal - the length I want to measure. I'm being needlessly specific here because despite the simplicity of what I've done I just can't get over the sizes I've come up with, as you'll see. In fact I just keep shaking my head and giggling about it.

The overall size of the fractured area is about 540km across (perpendicular to the arc of the fractures). This is similar to the distance between London and Edinburgh.

That's shown in the following annotated graphic, for those who can't picture London to Edinburgh an inset of Google Earth shows much of western Europe.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3RWMzYU9SVDNkZGM/edit?usp=sharing
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 27, 2013, 03:45:44 PM
Thanks Chris,

The fractures have reached Banks Island....unbelievable!

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 27, 2013, 03:55:53 PM
How long has it taken the whole of Beaufort to go? You and A-Team have been following it more than I have.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 27, 2013, 05:36:08 PM
I have to wonder how such fracturing will play out in the early phase of the melt season? Will the level of fragmentation aid or hinder melt?

We have seen the way flat FY ice allows the flooding of the sheet with melt water lowering albedo and hastening melt so will smaller sections limit the flooding and so slow melt or will the fragmentation increase the surface area compared to mass hastening melt?

Will the fragmentation lead to higher mobility and so lead to flush out from Berring and Fram (seeing as Pole to Fram is a similar mess) or will we just see extent Sky rocket (leading to the WUWT annual 'Recovery' thread) as the ice stretches out as it leaves the basin?

To me the fact that the Beaufort event is 2 months (nearly) ahead of last years fracturing (2 moons) I'd guess that we ought to be looking at how fast the bulk of the ice disappears this time and not how little is left come September?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 27, 2013, 06:13:05 PM
Gray Wolf,

Fram isn't an issue here, that is the outlet from the other (Greenland) side of the pack.

This amount of fragmentation so early in the season will enhance melt by forming open water between the ice sections. Given the size of the ice masses enhanced albedo feedback due to melt water on the surfaces will still happen. IMO Beaufort just got an adrenaline shot in the minutes before the 100m sprint of the season. Given that every year Siberian sector now shows enthusiastic melt, I think betting on a recovery this year is a long shot (EDIT - make that a very long shot).

***

Beaufort (Banks) is image r05 c 02 of the MODIS Arctic Mosaic. Day 51 is here:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2013051.terra (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2013051.terra)
On day 51 there was no indication of what follows, even down to 250m resolution I can't see any arcing cracks that imply what follows from day 52 onwards. A slideshow of those images reveals exponential rate of advance, which makes what the latest IR image above shows inevitable.

The latest Rapidfire MODIS realtime doesn't yet cover the area of interest.
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/ (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ritter on February 27, 2013, 06:17:37 PM
Thanks Chris,

The fractures have reached Banks Island....unbelievable!

I hate to be dense (trying to connect the dots as a layperson), but this is pretty horrific news, correct? We should see solid ice, not fractures 540km across, correct? Elsewhere you said this looks like we're ~50 days ahead of schedule. Would that indicate we've essentially got nearly two extra months in the melt pipeline?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: lanevn on February 27, 2013, 10:41:32 PM
This amount of fragmentation so early in the season will enhance melt by forming open water between the ice sections. Given the size of the ice masses enhanced albedo feedback due to melt water on the surfaces will still happen. IMO Beaufort just got an adrenaline shot in the minutes before the 100m sprint of the season. Given that every year Siberian sector now shows enthusiastic melt, I think betting on a recovery this year is a long shot (EDIT - make that a very long shot).

On the other side that ice is packing now near Bering Strait http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif) , so total amount of ice to melt is increasing.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on February 28, 2013, 02:41:24 AM
What makes you think it hasn't already refrozen?
Hi Chris,

The telltale sign of open water is when a plume of sea smoke forms downwind of an open lead in the sea ice. See the plume SW of Pt. Barrow Alaska in the top-left of this image? The edge of the sea smoke traces the edge of the lead. However, on frozen leads further to the North (down in this MODIS picture), there is no sea smoke. Those leads have frozen over.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013058.terra.367.500m&vectors=coast%2Bborders (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2013058.terra.367.500m&vectors=coast%2Bborders)

I've attached two example images of 'sea smoke'. The first is an annotated MODIS image in true colour of the Nares strait near Greenland. The second image shows what sea smokes looks like from the aloft con of the US Icebreaker Healy.  :D
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 28, 2013, 06:13:28 AM
Chris,

The earliest Beaufort image I saved as February 8. It follows for comparative purposes, A-Team may have something earlier - from January.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 28, 2013, 07:55:12 AM
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Lanevn,

Thanks for that. HYCOM shows the opening of a polnya rather than parallel fractures, but does show the net movement away from Banks that's caused this.

Lodger,

The MODIS images clearly show that most of the fractures have frozen over, with thin ice. This thin ice is still losinng a lot of ocean heat, so appears black in IR as it radiates a lot of IR. It will not thicken substantially.

Thanks for the early February graphic. That's at the time when I wasn't convinced we were seeing something very unusual. I'm sure I've seen large scale cracking before on IR in the winter. It was the opening of the large fissure/lead visible on ASCAT that was unusual. Now this behaviour looks a lot too early. Anyway I did call that earlier activity wrong - it did lead to something substantial and unusual even if it wasn't very unusual in itself.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 28, 2013, 10:16:52 AM
Here's an animation of MODIS imagery over the Beaufort, Chukchi area between February 10th and and 27th. I think the last frame is the most alarming.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi976.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fae242%2FNa-Damanta-Sam%2FSea%2520Ice%2520Stuff%2FFeb10-27AnimLarge_zpsdd444ff1.gif&hash=8fe18c0747239378cd430e91bb0af3d6)

I've tried to attach a larger version, as photobucket seems eager to shrink everything I upload, so hopefully that's attached and working.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: FrankD on February 28, 2013, 11:00:03 AM
And those cracks are now appearing in M'Clure straight as well. Are we taking bets on when the NWP will open this year? 'Cos I'm begining to think June isn't looking a completely ridiculous option...
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on February 28, 2013, 11:43:53 AM
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Now that the cracking has reached Banks Island on day 58, I think the 40 day estimate is understated. Reached Banks Island day 107 of 2012 so a better estimate is now 49 days. So while 51 still looks over the top, it looks like that is a better estimate than my 40. So I got it wrong, sorry.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on February 28, 2013, 01:42:15 PM
I'm interested in how that released stress affects the rest of the ice pack. Some fractures are extending towards Ellesmere. From the area in the Bering, new fractures have opened almost all the way to Wrangel Is.

Time will tell if we are seeing a larger breakup event, and I have not been watching what the flow out the Fram Strait looks like.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 28, 2013, 02:27:34 PM
It looks as though a +ve dipole/-ve AO type pattern will persist for the next week at least. This will likely increase the rate of ice flow south through Fram and also into the Barents Sea.
I think we could stick another few 100k onto the extent and area over the next 10 days, combined with the +ve anomalies on the Pacific side, possibly reaching the highest values since 2008, or even the early 00s.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ritter on February 28, 2013, 05:59:49 PM
Ritter,

Crandles has pointed out elsewhere that this is more like 40days earlier than the earliest recent occurence. IMO it does indicate thinner ice, what impact it will have on the melt season we'll have to see, but I think it does mean a quick start.

Now that the cracking has reached Banks Island on day 58, I think the 40 day estimate is understated. Reached Banks Island day 107 of 2012 so a better estimate is now 49 days. So while 51 still looks over the top, it looks like that is a better estimate than my 40. So I got it wrong, sorry.

Is this supposed to make me feel better or worse?  ;D

So this thread taken with the ice extent thread indicate we've got a substantial amount of really crappy ice that will likely break up, be transported out and/or melt in short order. I'm not convinced that sea ice extent really means much any more.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 28, 2013, 06:35:50 PM
This is why I think it might be an idea to pick a 'bulk meltout' date where the majority of the ice has gone to see if this date is getting earlier in the year? We saw the NW passage deep channel melt out by late july last year so maybe we should keep an eye on such?

Waiting for the final bits of ice to secumb (as new ice is forming at higher latitudes) is not really telling us anything these days (apart from how bad a shape the basin is in?) so trying to track if the younger, thinner ice is melting earlier (placing more energy into the N.Hemisphere) might make more sense?

Anyhows....
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on February 28, 2013, 09:09:32 PM
I'm too tired to properly look at the atmosphere right now but here are two graphics that go some way towards making the process behind the fracture formation more clear.

First ASCAT.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8372/8515790123_2db7834ed8_o.gif (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8372/8515790123_2db7834ed8_o.gif)

This shows that the Beaufort event was part of a large scale movement of the ice. The event starts after day 50, 19/2/13. When I used to follow QuikScat such events were relatively common, often associated with a shift from high to low index AO. However that doesn't apply here, the AO has been negative throughout this period.  It is worth noting that as we were all concentrating on Beaufort there was significant coastal lead opening off the Siberian coast, and that the advance of ice in the Atlantic sector is due to net clockwise movement of the bulk of the pack.

Now weather data, SLP and GPH for 500mb from Wetterzentrale.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8518/8515790223_2efca14f53_o.gif (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8518/8515790223_2efca14f53_o.gif)

This shows that after 19/2/13 a high pressure ridge develops trapped between two lows, creating parallel dipole features forcing a net clockwise movement on the winds over the ice. I have read that Ekman transport applies to the ice, in the NH Ekman transport is to the right of the prevailing winds, hence a high pressure causes influx towards the centre of the high pressure. Whilst it is obviously the case that this transport mechanism applies to open ocean, and in summer the water movement affects ice compaction. I am not convinced this applies to winds driving ice movement over ice covered regions. And here we seem to have a case in point - net clockwise wind movement, with net clockwise ice movement below.

I've finally downloaded Gimp, it took me all of about 45 minutes from download to ending this post having made my first animated gifs. I can recommend it.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: kejad on February 28, 2013, 10:35:47 PM
What are the possibilities that the cracks in the Beaufort are connected to the insanely warm water that was around the Mackenzie delta last summer?  (IIRC, the surface temps were around 20dF above normal.) 
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 01, 2013, 06:17:34 AM
Chris,

Thanks for the Ascat run, very helpful to see a couple of weeks of imagery to see movement and impact.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 01, 2013, 07:54:44 AM
Kejad,

I recall that warm water and remember thinking it couldn't be that warm. The Arctic ocean doesn't contain water that warm, the warmest the sun gets the top layer of the ocean is +5degC.

Why has this cracking occurred in Beaufort?

The general clockwise shift of the ice pack concentrates forces in that area. As the latest ASCAT shows -
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013058.sir.gif (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2013058.sir.gif)
The arcs of cracking are acting as if the Multi Year Ice is a barrier as effective as land. Then at the end of the 'channel' that is in Beaufort the ice is pinned by Banks Island. 

So the general clockwise movement of the ice has resulted in tension in the sea ice resulting in the progressive arc cracking.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 01, 2013, 09:10:10 AM
Kejad,

I recall that warm water and remember thinking it couldn't be that warm. The Arctic ocean doesn't contain water that warm, the warmest the sun gets the top layer of the ocean is +5degC.

Hi Chris,

I suspect Kejad is thinking about the plume of warm water near the mouth of the MacKenzie River, at about 72N 140W, shown here in this NOAA SST chart from Sep 16, 2012: (the day of the SIE record minimum)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 01, 2013, 09:16:57 AM
Hi Kejad,

It's pretty easy to demonstrate with the same NOAA SST maps that a large area of the Beaufort sea remains relatively warm (although still below 0C) from freeze-up on Nov 14, 2011 until today Feb 28, 2013.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: diablobanquisa on March 01, 2013, 02:12:02 PM
Causes of the cracks?

In my opinion:

-Weakness of the ice: FYI, low thickness...

-Strong northeast/easterly winds in february (look at the red area north of Barrow):
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.meteociel.fr%2Fim%2F2322%2Fcompday.158.227.122.150.59.5.58.16_xrf5.gif&hash=66e397dbfede7c6b075b97a4606c3c5a)

-Warm waters under the ice? Maybe, but I´m not sure about this.

-Warm air temperatures? Not. February has been colder than normal in that area:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.meteociel.fr%2Fim%2F1888%2Ffeb13_oxy3.gif&hash=3a020a09afa03377224e7be4f6e8fe07)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 01, 2013, 03:12:59 PM
In a novel development on the political front, I suddenly find myself engaging Andrew Neil (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/andrewneil/) and a thousand or two "climate change sceptics" in debate about the utility or otherwise of "windmills", as Andrew apparently likes to call them.

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt (https://twitter.com/jim_hunt)

Could be interesting?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 02, 2013, 06:14:23 AM
Hi Jim and Jack,

No offense intended, but would you be kind to move political comments to that thread, and comments on CO2 to the Permafrost group of threads?

Politics: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,16.0.html)

CO2: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,20.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,20.0.html)

Thanks in advance for you considerateness. That is the beauty of the board, we can avoid interrupting a topic.

Now in regard to the Arctic Ice fracturing, the latest Ellesmere AVHRR frame reveals more fracturing and more lines appearing that may become future breaks when viewed in detail.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 02, 2013, 06:18:05 AM
In a novel development on the political front, <snip>

Hi Jim,

This comment probably belongs in the "Policy and solutions" forum.

This thread is for Arctic sea ice, not alternate energy policy.  :o
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 02, 2013, 07:35:17 AM
I had tried to do this as an animated gif, but gimp is doing something weird and messing it up. Anyway...

I've taken ASCAT and highlighted the region of MYI, then superimposed the highlighted area on an IR shot of the Beaufort sea ice fracturing.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm9.staticflickr.com%2F8102%2F8520818148_28ce16bc10_o.jpg&hash=71373766dfde821347fc89e5eaae393d)

The new fracturing is clearly in the MYI region, however the intial tension failure arc fractures are shown to be constrained by the Alaskan Coast, Banks Island and the MYI.

PS - I agree with Lodger and A4R, could people please keep chat away from threads like this and on the appropriate sections of the forum.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 02, 2013, 02:27:26 PM
Hi Chris,

Thanks for this image, I was wondering if you would be willing to try a PIOMAS overlay. I thought I would try the HYCOM/CICE or the Godiva Sea Ice thickness imagery when I have some time.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DrTskoul on March 02, 2013, 03:58:18 PM
I have been following with amazement over the satellite imagery in this post.  Going through 2010 - 2013 visible spectrum imagery (Arctic_r05c02 Subset - Terra), one can see lot's of cracking even from day 40 in some years.  However, in previous years, either due to weather patterns or ice movement or ice thickness those cracks froze over quickly.  However this year, the cracks seem not only to be persistent but to expand rapidly.  The rapid loss of MYI, is proving what most of you have feared: once Arctic is mostly FYI the coupling of weather and thin ice will be the cause of some amazing and devastating events.  More to come.  And I thought I was glued to this blog last year's melting season.  Well, well, my shrink with have some things to say about this year's addiction.   
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DrTskoul on March 02, 2013, 04:47:48 PM
Quick question: Is MYI fragments of thick floes with slightly thinner ice in between? The following pic is from Ellesmere with a little image processing.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi45.tinypic.com%2Fmd2ji0.png&hash=0667f2a982b44beff83394719cf76336)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 02, 2013, 06:03:53 PM
A4R,

I'm not going to do a PIOMAS overlay because the PIOMAS thickness fields are only a rough approximation and anyway I only have PIOMAS gridded data on a monthly basis up to December. Due to ice thickening and movement using December would be a bit pointless.

As it is we're lucky to have ASCAT to spot the MYI and as an observation it's far superior to either PIOMAS, HYCOM, or the DAM.

I should point out though that if you follow the middle line of crosses upwards to the third cross then go across along the large crack you'll see that that crack seems to deviate as it hits the MYI area, then follows the MYI area. Now the MYI area I've done in red is an approximation, and the overlay of the ASCAT image was only accurate to about <95%. However I do suspect that the deviation of this crack is due to the line of stress being deflected by MYI.

Dr Tskoul,

Yes I think you're correct. Within the MYI region there is ice of various ages, all of it is at least 17 months old, having at least survived the 2012 melt. I maintain that the behaviour of the arc stress fractures shows that this central remnant is substantially stronger than the FYI that composes most of the pack at present. However within this there will be areas with floes of older ice with younger ice frozen in around it.

PS - it's awkward but there is another parallel discussion taking place at The Sea Ice Blog.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/the-cracks-of-dawn.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/03/the-cracks-of-dawn.html)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 03, 2013, 04:39:12 AM
Quick question: Is MYI fragments of thick floes with slightly thinner ice in between?
Hi DrTskoul,

Dr. David Barber provides a good explanation of what's really happening with MYI in this Nov 2009 video:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjaVp6AS5XU (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LjaVp6AS5XU#ws)

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 03, 2013, 04:51:46 AM
The Beaufort breakup of 2013 is not unprecedented. A similar event occurred in Jan 2008. I think this is significant because both events followed record low sea ice extent at the end of the previous melt season.

In both cases, Beaufort Winter sea ice was almost exclusively 100% first year sea ice, in fact just 4 months old or less. This new, salty sea ice does not have the mechanical shear strength to resist strong, persistent winds from the Polar vortex.

From the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC):
Huge fracture in Beaufort Sea ice pack worries scientists (http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2008/01/15/science-beaufort-ice.html)
Last Updated: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 | 12:21 PM ET CBC News

Caption: In December 2007, a massive fracture of the Beaufort ice pack was observed west of Banks Island. The image, from Jan. 9, clearly shows this fracture.
Image: (Environment Canada/NOAA)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 03, 2013, 01:15:03 PM
The Beaufort breakup of 2013 is not unprecedented. A similar event occurred in Jan 2008. I think this is significant because both events followed record low sea ice extent at the end of the previous melt season.

In both cases, Beaufort Winter sea ice was almost exclusively 100% first year sea ice, in fact just 4 months old or less. This new, salty sea ice does not have the mechanical shear strength to resist strong, persistent winds from the Polar vortex.

From the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC):
Huge fracture in Beaufort Sea ice pack worries scientists (http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/story/2008/01/15/science-beaufort-ice.html)
Last Updated: Tuesday, January 15, 2008 | 12:21 PM ET CBC News

Caption: In December 2007, a massive fracture of the Beaufort ice pack was observed west of Banks Island. The image, from Jan. 9, clearly shows this fracture.
Image: (Environment Canada/NOAA)

I'm not sure if these two situations are directly comparable though.
In 2007, the Chukchi sea didn't really begin to freeze over until the second half of December, a nearly month later that in 2012. This allowed the sea ice in the region to be much more mobile than you would typically expect, and was only a few weeks old when the large break up occurred in January.
Environment Canada have this animation from December 8th 2007 to March 27th 2008
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fice.ec.gc.ca%2Fcontent_contenu%2FSIE%2FBeaufort%2FANIM-BE2007.gif&hash=260f6c88a253ae1efa0def61a40b80ef)
http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=F4F1DC84-1 (http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En&n=F4F1DC84-1)

The ice in the region was continually on the move, but there was a temporary spread in the movement around January 9th to 20th, which may be comparable to now, though I we'd need more imagery to confirm it. 
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 03, 2013, 02:07:54 PM
In 2007, the Chukchi sea didn't really begin to freeze over until the second half of December, a nearly month later that in 2012. This allowed the sea ice in the region to be much more mobile than you would typically expect, and was only a few weeks old when the large break up occurred in January.
Hi BornFromTheVoid,

The satellite image from Jan 9, 2008 shows cracking emanating from Banks Island. This is over 1000 km away from the open water in the Chukchi sea 1 month previous (see attached AMSR-E sea ice concentration map from Dec 9, 2007). Freeze-up in the Banks Island region was similar in 2007 and 2012, in that there was zero sea ice concentration at the end of Summer.

If fact, freeze up in the Beaufort sea near Banks Island occurred later in the season during 2012 than in 2007, compared on Nov 1 (SIC maps provided below).

The key point is that 1st year sea ice has poor mechanical strength in shear. That's because, even if it reaches full thermodynamic equilibrium thickness of around 2 m, it is still full of air bubbles and liquid brine. Neither of those add strength, in fact they provide easy cleavage points to break the ice floe.

Only when sea ice has survived into it's 3rd year does the brine rejection process allow MYI to reach it's full strength. After that, slabbing is the only way for MYI to grow in thickness. And that takes LOTS of strong MYI, which is what we have now run out of. That's why they call it a 'death spiral'.  :(
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 03, 2013, 03:19:02 PM
In 2007, the Chukchi sea didn't really begin to freeze over until the second half of December, a nearly month later that in 2012. This allowed the sea ice in the region to be much more mobile than you would typically expect, and was only a few weeks old when the large break up occurred in January.
Hi BornFromTheVoid,

The satellite image from Jan 9, 2008 shows cracking emanating from Banks Island. This is over 1000 km away from the open water in the Chukchi sea 1 month previous (see attached AMSR-E sea ice concentration map from Dec 9, 2007). Freeze-up in the Banks Island region was similar in 2007 and 2012, in that there was zero sea ice concentration at the end of Summer.

If fact, freeze up in the Beaufort sea near Banks Island occurred later in the season during 2012 than in 2007, compared on Nov 1 (SIC maps provided below).

The key point is that 1st year sea ice has poor mechanical strength in shear. That's because, even if it reaches full thermodynamic equilibrium thickness of around 2 m, it is still full of air bubbles and liquid brine. Neither of those add strength, in fact they provide easy cleavage points to break the ice floe.

Only when sea ice has survived into it's 3rd year does the brine rejection process allow MYI to reach it's full strength. After that, slabbing is the only way for MYI to grow in thickness. And that takes LOTS of strong MYI, which is what we have now run out of. That's why they call it a 'death spiral'.  :(

Afternoon Artful Dodger,

I agree that the Beaufort sea ice condition is comparable for both times, I still think the ice in the Chukchi plays an important role, if only to modify the potential movement of ice in that general region and increase the risk of wave and swell action on the Beaufort ice.

Seems that lately, the term "rare event" has been losing its meaning in the Arctic...
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 04, 2013, 02:59:09 AM
It's interesting that 2008 had a similar pattern to this year. 2008 had a record-breaking refreeze volume  and was the only year in the last decade that was a recovery year.

I am still skeptical that this ice cracking is an indicator of record melt. It could be that ice cracking is merely an indicator of thin ice from a big melt the previous year.

Also, the 2013 refreeze has been well above average so far. We will see, but it seems that 2013 is at least as likely to be a recovery year as a record breaking one.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 04, 2013, 06:12:20 AM
Two actions are still occurring relation to the Beaufort sea ice breakup.

One, some sections of the Beaufort ice continue to move and break down into smaller pieces in the main pack in the Beaufort Sea.

Second, the fracture lines that run toward the pole are lengthening and curving down to Ellesmere Island, especially the ones south of 80 N, which are snaking through MYI. These fractures are slowly showing more opening as the ice moves toward Alaska.


Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 04, 2013, 02:14:35 PM
Here is a highlighted example of the fracture lines that have appeared in the last couple of days. I anticipate more may develop as long as the high is in place and the ice continues to move.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 04, 2013, 04:26:52 PM
Are we seeing fracturing now spreading into the NW Passage Deep channel? If the entrance to the passage is now allowing wave action under the ice I suppose we ought to expect as much?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 04, 2013, 06:43:08 PM
Dave C,

Don't be fooled by the extent/area metric. Go to ASCAT and download day 50 and the latest day 62.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/ (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/)

Day 50 was just before this cracking started, if you flick between the two while looking at the Atlantic sea ice edge you'll see how much ice has advanced into the Atlantic, this isn't new growth, it's ice being transported. That's what's making space for all the cracks, which are filling up with new ice.

The reason I think we're headed for a new record this year is simply the state of the ice pack.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/ascat-piomas-and-dam.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/02/ascat-piomas-and-dam.html)
I think that is more important than this cracking, but the bulk movement into the Atlantic is moving ice out to be melted, and the new ice filling the gaps may play a role that's interesting from a technical point of view. I'm probably one of the few following the Arctic because I find it awesome and exciting.

A4R,

The bulk movement continues for yet another day, if you do a flick between today's and yesterday's IR images you'll see that along the most poleward crack in the MYI off the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) there's a new fissure opening extending that extends it further into the Arctic Ocean. This can be seen in the images you post above.

In a few days I'll post some more animated gifs, but I suspect there's more play in this event, to post now would be a waste of my time.

After blogging on the January status I'd been going to give February a miss. I now suspect it will be best to let this melt season carry my blogging as things happen.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on March 04, 2013, 06:48:41 PM
Just go with the floe, Chris.  8)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ivica on March 04, 2013, 06:52:15 PM
Watching those 2 images above posted by A4R:
What that large shadow along the crack going north (longitude 120W, above Prince Patrick Island) tell us?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 04, 2013, 07:38:32 PM
Ivica,

The temperature scale is at the top of the image, the darker things are the warmer. So I suspect this is water vapour being vented from the fracture. This can also be seen on MODIS bands 367
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2013062.terra.367 (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c02.2013062.terra.367)

Neven,

I think this is going to be a classic year!  ;D
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 04, 2013, 07:40:29 PM
ChrisR-

I was referring to volume in my post. I don't pay much attention to extent/area because I think volume is the more accurate indicator. A few more thoughts-

-If you look at the last few years, there does not seem to be much of a correlation between ice thickness and volume melt.
-Since 2007, melt volume seems to have plateaued somewhat.
-I might be misinterpreting it, but this graph seems to show that volume transport of ice through the fram has not been increasing.
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas/grf/fram.png
-I am not familiar with cracking in previous years, but as far as I know a firm correlation between cracking and melt has not been established.

I certainly can't rule out a record year due to all the uncertainty, but as of now I would predict an average to below average loss of volume this year. Maybe 2.8 km3 minimum if I had to pick a precise number.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: John_The_Elder on March 04, 2013, 09:14:39 PM
Dave C,
When I look at Piomass ice volume plot @ http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.png (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2_CY.png)
I do not see a plateau from 2007 to present. I see less ice. If it melted in situ or was transported elsewhere it is no longer with us.

John
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 04, 2013, 09:58:10 PM
Ahhh, sorry Dave mea culpa.

I don't know if you follow my blog, if you do then sorry, but in case you don't.

Yes the annual range increased after 2007.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8103/8481914926_1c34bd0f27_o.jpg (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8103/8481914926_1c34bd0f27_o.jpg)

However this hides the massive change in PIOMAS seasonal cycle which is shown by the anomalies (difference from daily average)
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8109/8453225199_b9b8d59ed6_o.jpg (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8109/8453225199_b9b8d59ed6_o.jpg)

And in terms of CT area, the anomalies are starting to behave more and more wildly.
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8454317998_9cbbd9da37_o.jpg (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8505/8454317998_9cbbd9da37_o.jpg)

The relationship between volume and area/extent is critical. It is the volume loss that drives the reduction in area extent because of volume's implications for thickness, and the consequent implications for the ease with which open water is formed. The closer that April thickness (ann max) gets to the summer thinning the more open water is formed.

I agree that this cracking doesn't in itself mean an aggressive melt this year. I'll paraphrase my latest blog post - it's rather long. But basically the cracking does seem to be early and the structure of the initial arc cracking shows the thinness of the FYI in Beaufort. This is why I gave you a link to my post of PIOMAS DAM and ASCAT. If you look at that, and there are links there so you can go earlier, you'll see how there's an exceptionally large region of new ice from last year. This matters because this new ice is thinner and weaker. It also matters because younger ice absorbs more solar energy through the melt season (1/3 more). So the more younger ice the more rapid the melt. This is why the seasonal cycle has expanded.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 04, 2013, 09:59:54 PM
PS - where have the first two pages of this thread gone?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Juan C. García on March 04, 2013, 10:13:46 PM
Quote
ChrisReynolds
PS - where have the first two pages of this thread gone?
I understand that there were 25  posts/page before and now there are 50 posts/page, so the posts are the same but in less pages.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 05, 2013, 02:27:01 AM
Anyone aware of where we can get AVHRR imagery of the Russian side of the CAB? Also, is there 1.7-1.9 km AVHRR imagery for the CAB area above Svalbard available?


Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 05, 2013, 03:25:02 AM
Here is a rough in of today's developments as of 030513 0031
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: danp on March 05, 2013, 09:48:48 AM
Thanks A4R - this is riveting stuff and it's much easier to follow with graphical aids like yours.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 05, 2013, 10:22:24 AM
JohntheElder- I'm not referring to total volume loss, but just the difference from max to min each year. The last 5 years have been 18.1, 18.2, 19.0, 17.9 and 18.7. I'll let you decide if that's a plateau or not.

ChrisReynolds- I suppose at any point something crazy could happen. But so far 19.0 has been the record, with 18.5 probably a reasonable average. I guess we'll see what happens. I would be pretty surprised if melt was much more than 19.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 05, 2013, 11:53:51 AM
Hi Dave C!

I'm not quite understanding what you hope to highlight by looking at this side of losses? Last year the beginning of melt saw a large extension of ice out into Bering which had no part to play in the melt season but still bolstered volume at the get go?

If we see a few years of such high start rates will it not mask the final finish point?

Prior to 2012 I'd use how much ice had melted that season, compared with 07's melt total, to rile Skeptics who were bust telling me we were in recovery.

I believe we are in a 'new' period of the Arctic sea ice and it involves the bulk of the ice being melted out earlier each year. This will lead to another 'step change' once we find a year that can remove the residual 'older ice' as ,the year following, the bulk of the ice will be gone as early and only weak ice will be left bringing the 'ice free' portion of the year instantly back a month.

I also believe that transport will cause the biggest losses of the older ice and so to see a pack so mobile, this early in the season, raises concerns in me about ice being 'shunted' toward Fram (even if the correct synoptics are not present over Fram?)

 At present Conditions in the Beaufort sea are are translating to wholesale movement of ice toward Fram. Not good.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on March 05, 2013, 12:15:14 PM
JohntheElder- I'm not referring to total volume loss, but just the difference from max to min each year. The last 5 years have been 18.1, 18.2, 19.0, 17.9 and 18.7. I'll let you decide if that's a plateau or not.


How do you decide if it is a plateau without seeing the earlier years?

try a graph
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8224/8334481723_947248554a_b.jpg (http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8224/8334481723_947248554a_b.jpg)

I have for simplicity labeled the difference from max to min each year as 'Melt'.

To me that looks like it is curling upwards not changing from one plateau to a new plateau. At least so far.

I think it also make sense to consider what is physical. If the max volume is lower then the ice will be thinner allowing greater area to melt out earlier enabling albedo feedback to provide more energy into the arctic. Everyone agrees this is a major feedback.

At some point the melt volume will start to decline and I think it is conceivable that this could be before minimum volume reaches zero. There would be less melt in the outer seas because they are thinner and fully melt out and more melt in central areas because it is thinner and more energy is available. I think that so far extra melt in central areas is tending to be larger than declining melt in outer seas but I don't see why that couldn't change if sufficiently large areas by CAA keep getting up to thicknesses of 3m which is too much to melt in a season by transport of ice into the area causing mechanical thickening. So far the thickest ice seems to be getting thinner - very little over 3.75m per Piomas.

So a plateau after curling up does not seem impossible even physically plausible. However, I am not sure we have reached that yet.


Grey Wolf, I think you should see that I think it does make sense to look at 'this side of losses'.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 05, 2013, 02:14:41 PM
In addition to the wind and high pressure that has stressed the ice to date, here is the HYCOM CICE forecast for ice speed for March 4, 5, 8 and 10. It would seem to lead to additional fracturing.

The source is: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticicespddrf.html (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arc_list_arcticicespddrf.html)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 05, 2013, 02:25:41 PM
Latest fracturing north of Ellesmere at 11:05.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Juan C. García on March 05, 2013, 03:23:45 PM
A4R:
The cracks that you are showing and the forecast of the HYCOM CICE are very impressive.
I don’t believe that there will be a recovery before the start of the melting season, so this year the sea ice will be very weak and I would expect an early melt.
Do you agree?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 05, 2013, 05:33:46 PM
A4R......Wow!

When I look at at the ice speed forecasts and the fracturing, I am drawn to the fracturing that is occurring over the pole. Does this suggest the Fram is set to pump a lot of ice into the Atlantic?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 05, 2013, 05:46:05 PM
Gray-Wolf-
The forces that act on the ice during the melting and refreeze season are very different. It's an
assumption, but I think it's a pretty reasonable one to separate them.

I don't think "masking" is a useful distinction. Either ice melts or it doesn't. Whatever it ends up at is the "true rate". Higher ice gain in winter actually is a trend, which is partly why I separate the two seasons.

I posted the graph of fram ice transport in post 64. As far as I am aware, transport through the fram is not increasing. I guess this year will be a good test of that hypothesis.

Crandles-
I have seen the earlier years, I just make the assumption that the last 5 years is more important than the preceding. I think the change in 2007 was big enough to alter ice dynamics permanently. Of course there is too little data to state definitively either way, but it is testable. Does focusing on the last 30, 10 or 5 years give you better results? I'm going to predict 5 until I see evidence otherwise.

I agree that the thinner ice is a major feedback. But it's an empirical question whether the two major resistors to melt volume counterbalance it(less ice to melt, more difficult to melt what's left). Of course even if I am right that melt volume has stalled, it is still larger than winter ice gain. Overall ice volume will decline unless summer melt volume reverses or winter gain significantly increases.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on March 05, 2013, 06:40:19 PM
I have seen the earlier years, I just make the assumption that the last 5 years is more important than the preceding. I think the change in 2007 was big enough to alter ice dynamics permanently. Of course there is too little data to state definitively either way, but it is testable. Does focusing on the last 30, 10 or 5 years give you better results? I'm going to predict 5 until I see evidence otherwise.

I say use 34 years and try to use physical reasoning to arrive at a formula like
22.8 - 0.213 * max vol

That is still going up as max volume declines further. I suggest there is little to no evidence of the rate of melt volume increase is slowing down let alone that there is a plateau yet. Even so, average of last 5 years could work out to be a better predictor than such a formula which is not only increasing but also doing so at an increasing rate.

If there is a trend, 5 years is a bit short of a period to estimate that trend given the level of noise. So it seems use of 5 years would simply use persistence rather than the trend evolution that 34 years can suggest. So generally, I would prefer to use 34 years than 5 but it is possible that you are right in this case.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 05, 2013, 07:45:05 PM
Don't know about exponential- wipneus is predicting volume down to 2.0, which would probably require a record melt. 10 year linear seems to predict 19.05, 5 year predicts 18.65.

It's possible that the variance could obscure the trend, but I think the difference is big enough that this year should give us an indicator if an exponential, linear or short-term linear trend is more accurate.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 05, 2013, 08:30:44 PM
Last three days from Environment Canada, Northern Canada & Arctic Ocean, HRPT (Polar Orbiting) - animated gif.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3V292VzJnVlROVzg/edit?usp=sharing

Day 50 to day 63 of ASCAT, showing bulk movement of the ice.
https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B3pB-kdzoLU3enpsVkZGZDdFZEk/edit?usp=sharing

 :P   
Have at it ice nerds!
    :o
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: SATire on March 05, 2013, 08:32:32 PM
When I look at at the ice speed forecasts and the fracturing, I am drawn to the fracturing that is occurring over the pole. Does this suggest the Fram is set to pump a lot of ice into the Atlantic?

Indeed - if transport of ice-volume through Fram is going to keep constant while ice thickness in the arctic ocean is decreasing, it would have to go faster. Obviously it is trying to keep that flow rate constant, thus increasing velocity and tearing the thick ice appart by doing so. The fractured ice is surely more mobile allowing to keep that flow rate constant, but why? And it can not be like this for ever, because the old thick ice will be gone soon...
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 05, 2013, 08:40:28 PM
Again, let's not forget the findings from 07' which showed 'perfect storm' years come around every 10 to 20 yrs with the past two , prior to 07', having a 10yr period?

If changes to atmospheric circulation are all encompassing then we may have lost this old 'cycle' , if not? then we are drawing ever closer to a 'high export/high melt' year.

What chance does the current Arctic stand against such???

If we do not see such a collaboration of forces against the ice then we still must remember the last of the ice will go pretty fast? It will not be a slow fade over years but all within a single season (as the remaining ice reaches a critical thickness/thinness).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 05, 2013, 10:12:16 PM
Dave C,

Currently we have January volume - Ok let's work with that. If I take the volume for 31/1/XX I can work out the difference between 31 Jan and the following minimum I can work out the range from January. Indeed as expected this shows the plateau behaviour you are talking about. So I take the post 2007 years and subtract from these the current volume on 31/1/2013.

Jan Vol/Jan to Min/Projection
19.584,   13.126,   3.717
20.21,   13.138,   3.705
20.389,   13.496,   3.347
18.861,   14.433,   2.41
17.565,   13.548,   3.295
17.594,   14.333,   2.51

Note the years in order are 2007 down to 2012.

These naïve projections support what you're saying. Last year's record was 3.261k km^3, only two out of six projections give a new record, the other 4 are rebounds. Therefore the probability of a new record this year is 1/3 right? No, wrong.

I said this is a naïve method, that's not meant in an insulting manner, it's the common term used in the literature for a simple unphysical method. Essentially the problem with the above method is that it is unphysical.

You'll note from the above sequence of projections that the lowest are from 2010 onwards. Why is this? Further up thread I provided you with a graph of anomalies for PIOMAS volume, this shows that since 2010 there has been a pronounced and massive spring melt within the model. This will happen again this year. It's initiation coincides with a massive loss of volume in 2010, mainly a loss of thick multi year ice (off the CAA). I'll be posting another blog post about this spring volume loss in the next few weeks - I think I'm closer to understanding exactly what's going on.

This year we have something similar. I've linked to a blog post showing PIOMAS DAM and ASCAT with links to longer term data. The state of the ice now is the thinnest it has been in the satellite record, this will have physical effects during the melt season. Because there is now more first year ice than at any other time, the albedo of the ice will be lower and therefore the energy gain higher. This isn't a matter of conjecture - it is physics, both theoretical and empirical.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ivica on March 06, 2013, 11:01:25 AM
Beaufort Sea uncovered by daylight: http://www.arctic.io/observations/ (http://www.arctic.io/observations/)
All credits to arcticio.

(Maybe not obvious to newcomers, moving mouse over Date box opens Calendar.)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 06, 2013, 04:50:20 PM
Net ice movement between 19 Feb and 5 Mar.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm9.staticflickr.com%2F8248%2F8534579476_7aa84d8919_o.gif&hash=bbadfb2a10fed0f1b42ec049f6d85842)

Arrows connect features that move between these dates, dotted areas do not move.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: werther on March 07, 2013, 10:13:09 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FECMWFprogfor140307032013_zps63afe1d1.jpg&hash=bae38290476644b2733560be41b270f2)
Thought I'd post a larger version of the ECMWF prognosis for 14 March here.
In seems to illustrate effects of a new SSW event in progress now.
Meanwhile, the cold spell in the Arctic has suppressed the built-up 'winter-power' I posted on above. The Bering side and the Barentsz hotspots have weakened, a large 'zero anomaly' has showed op over the remaining stronger pack north of Nares Strait.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 07, 2013, 02:29:17 PM
What a difference a month makes! I thought I'd compare February 5 and March 7 to reveal how much change has happened in the last four weeks. It is clear that we have seen changes that will likely have real impact later in the melt seadson.

Here are a few I observe:

1) The fracturing is obvious!
2) The change in direction of the fracturing.
3) The movement of ice towards the Atlantic/Fram
4) The further breakdown of ice moving towards the Fram along the Greenland coast.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 07, 2013, 06:26:07 PM
A4R.....From your images

With major fractures having migrated east to the coast of Prince Patrick and some evidence of emerging(?) arc fractures further east and north and the sorry state of ice north of Ellsmere, could we be looking at the nearly complete desintegration of ice north of the CA?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 07, 2013, 06:29:21 PM
By disintegration, I don't mean a complete melt out but that the remaining MYI will no longer be a cohesive pack. :-\
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 08, 2013, 02:23:17 PM
Shared Humanity,

The ice dynamics are such that the fracturing will likely be slower. The changes in wind patterns, temperature, and the coming sun are all in play.

The next few months will let us know the conclusion.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 10, 2013, 09:24:48 AM
ASCAT 9/3/13, shows that the general clockwise movement of the entire Arctic ice pack continues (except for the regions noted in my post of 5/3/13 4:50).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: gfwellman on March 10, 2013, 10:08:22 AM
It's going to be an interesting melt season.  Comparing the visible spectrum (e.g. http://www.arctic.io/observations/ (http://www.arctic.io/observations/) ) for the same time last year, there was less ice in the Barents, but the main pack showed almost no fracturing.  The ice on the east coast of Greenland was much more solid as well.  There's no guarantee that this spells doom for the ice pack but if there is a strong transpolar drift this melt season, we could see another record minimum.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 10, 2013, 04:43:14 PM
Here are the before, during and after AVHRR images from:

8 March 2342, when there is no major MYI fracturing and prior to the wind event,
9 March 1850, when the warm wind is streaming over the ice, and you can see some new fracturing beginng, and
10 March 1333, when the full fracturing of the MYI is fully apparent.

I am not aware of any comparison in the records with this event. Any others aware of a similar event at this time of year - or ever?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 10, 2013, 05:57:53 PM
A4R...

I also see what appear like many more arc fractures forming with the sharpest points of each arc moving progressively closer to the pole. As these arcs turn south and move towards Ellsmere they appear to terminate in the MYI. Could a renewed Beaufort Geyer cause these to push through the last remaining pack of MYI?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: SATire on March 10, 2013, 06:48:16 PM
A4R - it seams like cracking has reached "mission accomplished"-state as there is no save haven left for multi-year-ice. Every part of multi-year-ice left has now a good chance to leave either via Fram-Express or to visit the sunny coast of Alaska for a short summer holiday to get extinct.

I am not sure, if the 2 oberservations discussed above "ice-volume transport through Fram stays constant" and "volume-melt has reached constant/maximum value" are linked - but I think so. Both are signs for record years to come until arctis is seasonaly ice-free, since after that date both values must decrease anyway. If the multi-years ice is gone, the only thing to export or to melt is then the ice grown in the winter just before. Therefore - to observe the 2 plateaus now is a sign that we will reach ice-free arctis soon, e.g. this year or in 5 years.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 10, 2013, 08:01:20 PM
A4R - it seams like cracking has reached "mission accomplished"-state as there is no save haven left for multi-year-ice. Every part of multi-year-ice left has now a good chance to leave either via Fram-Express or to visit the sunny coast of Alaska for a short summer holiday to get extinct.
Hi SATire,

Indeed, it's Bedtime for Bonzo (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bedtime_for_Bonzo) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: (h/t to A4R for linking the pictures above)

Here's a cropped, grey-scaled, resized, auto-colour-adjusted image of the sea ice graveyard: (Image avhrr (http://noaasis.noaa.gov/NOAASIS/ml/avhrr.html) IR Ch 4 (10.8mu or -5C peak emissivity) taken @ 2013-03-10 15:39:55 GMT)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 10, 2013, 08:05:16 PM
SATire

Here are two images that I think help establish that fact:

The first is the AVHRR Ellesmere Island at 1839 GMT.

The other is the last HYCOM/CICE thickness model.

Whatever was modeled as over 3 meters seems to be as vulnerable as everything else that has fractured, and north of Banks, Borden, and Brock Islands - has already done so.

I anticipate more fracturing to come.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 10, 2013, 08:06:25 PM
Lodger,

Thanks for the closeup!
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 10, 2013, 08:11:28 PM
Last year on the 'other side', I opined about the lack of deployable, realtime observation assets for under-water/under-ice data collection of seawater temperature & salinity. I stated if I had $8 Million to spend, I buy as many autonomous sea skimmer submersibles that could be helicopter deployed during events like this one.

I'd love to know what the heat flux under-ice is between Nares strait and the Central Arctic Basin near the MYI breakup area. How thin and weak is the sea ice. How much heat is attacking it from below? How strong are the surface winds? Only 2 of these 3 questions can be answered by satellites.

The fracturing in the MYI appears slightly different in character compared to the Beaufort breakup. In the CAA region, ice floes seem to be smaller overall, and with a greater ration of length to width. I hope CryoSat-2 is getting all this, as it should be right in the middle of their Spring campaign. Too bad NASA Icebridge hasn't started yet, they may miss the show.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DungeonMaster on March 10, 2013, 09:14:04 PM
Wow, I hadn't seen the latest images. It looks rather like an old elephant skin than like a healthy arctic. All explorers have been wise to cancel their plans skiing to the Pole - it would have turned into a swimming contest.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 10, 2013, 09:47:46 PM
While we have been paying attention to the Canadian Arctic, I have been waiting to see the Russian side. While we do not have all of it, the image shows the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas and into the Bering Strait.

The fracturing from Russia to Wrangel lsland and along the coast is significant. Pardon the pixelation, but I had to push the image.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 11, 2013, 12:30:07 AM
With the Spring tide coming tomorrow, I wonder what will happen to the fast ice on the North shore of the CAA.

Certainly the winds yesterday, March 9, 2013 had a devastating effect: (wind vector map courtesy IJIS/JMA)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DaddyBFree on March 11, 2013, 02:00:04 AM
Wow! Thanks A4R and Lodger (et al.) for documenting/highlighting the current/ongoing fracturing so well.  As has been pointed out, it is more of an indicator than a cause of the current situation, similarly to the cyclone last summer; however, it still amazes me to see what is supposed to be the thickest, oldest MYI fracturing within the (last remaining?) safe(r) haven regions.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Vergent on March 11, 2013, 02:57:33 AM
Last year on the 'other side', I opined about the lack of deployable, realtime observation assets for under-water/under-ice data collection of seawater temperature & salinity. I stated if I had $8 Million to spend, I buy as many autonomous sea skimmer submersibles that could be helicopter deployed during events like this one.

I'd love to know what the heat flux under-ice is between Nares strait and the Central Arctic Basin near the MYI breakup area. How thin and weak is the sea ice. How much heat is attacking it from below? How strong are the surface winds? Only 2 of these 3 questions can be answered by satellites.

The fracturing in the MYI appears slightly different in character compared to the Beaufort breakup. In the CAA region, ice floes seem to be smaller overall, and with a greater ration of length to width. I hope CryoSat-2 is getting all this, as it should be right in the middle of their Spring campaign. Too bad NASA Icebridge hasn't started yet, they may miss the show.

Lodger.

Teathered profiler data can be gotten here:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781)



Verg
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Artful Dodger on March 11, 2013, 03:41:10 AM
Loger.<sic>

Teathered profiler data can be gotten here:

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781)

Verg
Thanks, Verg

I'm aware (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2011/07/sie-2011-update-11-the-heat-is-on.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b014e89db787d970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b014e89db787d970d) of the ITP (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/asi-2012-update-9-stormy-weather/comments/page/2/#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b016769511789970b) data.

I just think we could do better with Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs). Plus needing a place to sink $8M and all...  ;D

More Programs like these:
About SIPEX-2 (http://seaice.acecrc.org.au/sipex2012/)
Marine Autonomous and Robotic Systems (MARS (http://noc.ac.uk/research-at-sea/nmfss/mars))
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 11, 2013, 06:54:46 AM
One last view of the Russian fracturing, which also seems to be expanding.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: werther on March 11, 2013, 02:35:18 PM
A provisoric history “à l’ après-midi d’un faune” in the Arctic…
(music by Debussy).
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FLMr04c04day22916082012_zpsa9b3b93f.jpg&hash=eea48f6a2c54f19b6c8205a0a4d9f4e8)
Triggered by A-Team I’ve been looking back on the feature he’s dubbed ‘Goat’s head’ and stumbled on the detail above, 16 August ’12, where clouds seem to adapt to the satyric frame the remnant ice was clutched into…
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202010%2FComparing_2010_201108012012.jpg&hash=4e34ada5bc0cad1b5e5deed2060f6e49)
I think it is retraceable to the +5 year old arm of floes into the ESAS, that stands out in deep blue on my own comparison map from fall ’11.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520ice%25202013%2FLMr04c04day25511092012_zpsaeda5409.jpg&hash=8e3f912fc35ae3a3c046e64c2abd11f8)
This frame is about a week before the structure was frozen in again last September. The southwest side was an ancre-ground for ‘Polarstern’ then, where it provided one of the few solid floes for the crew to carry out their experiments.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 11, 2013, 03:19:04 PM
Thanks Werther, that is helpful. We will see what the coming months bring.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: TerryM on March 11, 2013, 04:41:14 PM
IIRC the Brits are planning a submarine excursion into Nares Strait later this year. Might not be the
sea skimmers the Lodger wished for, but could answer some of his questions.

Andreas Muenchow was hoping to get a berth & if he does we'll almost certainly get regular updates from his site!

Terry
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Dave C on March 12, 2013, 06:18:05 PM
I am updating my prediction made in post 64.  We have had record volume gain through this date. The cracks have another month to refreeze and possibly add even more volume than they have so far. If we tie the record for volume loss this summer then the expected minimum for 2013 would be about 3.05 km3.

While high, I don't think the melt will be that high. My current prediction is for volume minimum in 2013 to be exactly the same as last year- 3.26.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: johnm33 on March 21, 2013, 09:45:06 PM
Kejad Better late than never i hope.
 Yes as I recall at one point there were 12 bands on the companion anomolies page to the pic Lodger posted, implying 24deg, too much for insolation or any other cause, except for kinetic energy
https://pangea.stanford.edu/courses/EESS146Bweb/Lecture%2015.pdf (https://pangea.stanford.edu/courses/EESS146Bweb/Lecture%2015.pdf)
http://www.o3d.org/abracco/pio2011.pdf (http://www.o3d.org/abracco/pio2011.pdf)
are a couple of places to check for a start but you'll find any number by googling "kinetic energy greenland". Which address a similar anomoly on the west coast of greenland. Although i haven't found anything specifically for the arctic.
 Insofar as i understand it the kinetic energy, which i believe comes in on the back of tidal flows from the pacific, forms votices which act as centrifuges which, apart from the thermal energy that generates, draws up heat from the warmer  AW strata below, and sheds it in front of the waves so that it sort of surfs towards the shore and thus concentrates. I based my Jan 21 comment on 2013 open thread 1#, in another place on my incomplete understanding, 
"I'm expecting the same kind of warming we saw in Mackenzie Bay to show up to the north of greenland before the solstice, and possibly in april, which will disconnect the ice from the coast, and then the ice will rotate clockwise and disappear via Fram."
and having just read this whole thread, feel fairly confident that
this has been an increasingly potent factor in the demise of the ice since 2007, largely melting it out from the bottom.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: johnm33 on March 22, 2013, 11:32:12 AM
Don't know how to make this date specific, but this shows a similar anomoly, if over a lower temp range for the 21 mar.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.gif)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: deep octopus on March 22, 2013, 04:31:04 PM
John,

NOAA has a page which allows you to view temperature anomalies (as well as other atmospheric and sea surface variables) with specific time ranges from 1948 to present day (usually up to two days prior to the present day.) I use it very frequently. Hope this helps.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: johnm33 on March 22, 2013, 04:35:00 PM
Deep Octopus Thanks you.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 22, 2013, 09:12:58 PM
Monthly Seasonal Composites here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl)

Monthly Mean Timeseries here:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/timeseries/timeseries1.pl)

This data is what is commonly called NCEP/NCAR.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on June 18, 2013, 07:10:48 AM
The British MET is going to study why the UK weather has been so weird. It has been some of the coldest and wetest weather they've had the last two years. Many of us are familiar with some of the drivers that will be discussed.

Here is the BBC link:

Met Office experts meet to analyse 'unusual' weather patterns

By Matt McGrath, Environment correspondent, BBC News
17 June 2013 Last updated at 20:41 ET

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22937375 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-22937375)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Vergent on July 12, 2013, 02:56:16 PM
Yesterday, it rained in LA. Not a downpour a few hundredths. But this was only the third time that rain was recorded on that date.

Vergent
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: greylib on July 19, 2013, 01:17:07 PM
For me, the biggest oddity with the UK weather is that it's becoming far too settled.

We're a nation who almost pride ourselves  on having all four seasons in one week - sometimes in the space of a single afternoon. For the last couple of years, though, the weather has remained the same for weeks and months at a time. Last year, for instance: cold, dry winter; mild very dry spring (drought warning); then rain from the end of April onwards, leading into another cold winter.

These days our weather forecasters can get a 95% accuracy rating simply by saying "tomorrow same as today". Spookily odd!
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Anne on July 19, 2013, 01:26:58 PM
Hello, greylib. I agree. The definition of English summer used to be "three fine days and a thunderstorm".

If you've been lurking a while you have probably already discovered other threads relevant to UK weather in the Consequences section, including:
UK Met Office Summit on unusual weather patterns in the UK (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,385.0.html)
and
Weird Weather (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.0.html), which has a global scope.
Interesting times.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: pikaia on July 19, 2013, 01:27:22 PM
For me, the biggest oddity with the UK weather is that it's becoming far too settled.
That is because of the stalling of the jet stream. The movement of its path from West to East is slowing down, and so is the strength of the stream itself, as a result of the warmer Arctic. This reduces the temperature difference between poles and equator which drives the weather circulation, making everything more sluggish.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: greylib on July 19, 2013, 02:13:00 PM
If you've been lurking a while you have probably already discovered other threads ...
Interesting times.
Yes, I've seen those threads, and more. I've been lurking here almost since Day 1. I'm here to learn, not to talk - I don't have the expertise to contribute much, but I'm hooked on the expertise shown here.

Apart from giving Neven some money, all I can do is watch in fascinated horror as the human race saws through the branch it's sitting on.  :'(
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: jdallen on January 13, 2014, 08:45:53 AM
Oddity...

Am I mistaken, but is the High pressure over the Atlantic just west of the Canaries forcing the jet stream into an "S" curve?  The earth.nullschool.net 250mb image is rather dramatic (1/14/2014).

Some of the static maps not much less so.  At the least, it appears on one leg, the stream is actually trending slightly South*West*.

http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm (http://www.weathercharts.org/wetterzentrale-t120-t384.htm)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: jdallen on January 13, 2014, 08:05:55 PM
Here's the link from the California Weather Service I was missing last night (the site was down).  If you look on the right of the image, over the mid-Atlantic, you will see the reversing "S" curved jet stream I was talking about.  Image is from Jan 11/12.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: TerryM on June 29, 2014, 11:20:12 PM
I doubt that it's a record, but it does seem odd that temperatures at Herschel Island have been above freezing since June 16th. Today the only 24 hour high above 0 C is at Isachsen and Mould Bay have hovered between a high of 25 C and a low of 14 C. Even Eureka is showing 11 C.


The oddity is that we're showing ice growth under these conditions.


Temperatures around Hudson Bay are extreem also. The 33.4 C at Fort Severn might seem to be a glitch in the sensor if it wasn't for the 33.1 recorded at Peawanuck and the 32.6 from Moosonee At James Bay. For our American friends the above temperatures are all in excess of 90 F, not what is expected from polar bear country.


At Churchill:
2014 - 6/28 30.7 C
2013 - 6/23 27.9 C
2012 - 6/25 25.0 C


In 2012 high island temperatures in the CAA were apparently responsible for melting large quantities on MYI in the channels. I don't think a repeat is out of the question.


http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en (http://www.ogimet.com/gsynop.phtml.en)


Terry
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: jdallen on June 29, 2014, 11:48:08 PM
I doubt that it's a record, ...
<snippage>
The oddity is that we're showing ice growth under these conditions.
<snippage>
For our American friends the above temperatures are all in excess of 90 F, not what is expected from polar bear country.
<snippage>
In 2012 high island temperatures in the CAA were apparently responsible for melting large quantities on MYI in the channels. I don't think a repeat is out of the question.
I think you'd find may of your American friends speak fluent "C" and similar metric dialects ;)

High temperatures indeed.  It does not bode well for the tundra and wildlife.  I would not be surprised to hear reports of Polar bears dying from heat stroke.  The impact on ice of the high shore temperatures is less determinate, but undeniably negative.

It suggests a very rapid exit for remaining ice in the Hudson and Baffin bays.  If things continue even modestly warm, I agree that the thick ice in the CAA channels will vanish as well.

That heat extends all the way west past Amundsen sound along the Beaufort, though at somewhat reduced levels.  The near term shows temperatures rising into the mid-20's at numerous locations on the shore.

Ice growth? Absent of import?  Nah, didn't happen; sensors fooled by something.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: jdallen on June 29, 2014, 11:57:22 PM
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmap2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimagegen%2Findex.php%3FTIME%3D2014179%26amp%3Bextent%3D-1364416%2C-1090944%2C-1030592%2C-769408%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2Carctic_coastlines_3413%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D1304%26amp%3Bheight%3D1256&hash=3cc2d64e06fa86d58bf4ff032f309407)

It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Anne on June 30, 2014, 12:07:14 AM
Nice catch. 

Right now someone is going to come along and explain it, I hope. 
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 30, 2014, 03:57:38 AM
Nice catch. 

Right now someone is going to come along and explain it, I hope.

I'll give it a shot. We all know that North America had a brutally cold winter. So cold, we would have expected the Archipelago to freeze really well. If you look at this hole, it looks as if we are looking at floes of solid MYI surrounded by open water. How could the FYI around these flows have melted so quickly? Why are we not seeing small rubble ice around these larger floes? I believe we may be witnessing a new kind of phenomena. The snow across the upper Midwest was early, deep and persistent. Once it fell, it stayed on the ground. With so much open water in the Arctic in the Fall, could we be seeing excessive early snowfalls that serve to insulate the seas and newly formed FYI from the cold of the winter? Could this prevent the new FYI from thickening and wouldn't this thin FYI then melt quickly once the snow cover is gone? I theorized about this on another thread. Are there any records of snow fall depths in the CAA?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: TerryM on June 30, 2014, 04:19:59 AM
Someone, possibly Artful Dodger posted a link a few years back on snow cover in the CAA. The results were that snow insulated the ice, then provided plenty of fresh water for melt ponds. The deeper the snow the thinner the FYI.


Terry
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: greatdying2 on June 30, 2014, 04:52:31 AM
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmap2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimagegen%2Findex.php%3FTIME%3D2014179%26amp%3Bextent%3D-1364416%2C-1090944%2C-1030592%2C-769408%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2Carctic_coastlines_3413%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D1304%26amp%3Bheight%3D1256&hash=3cc2d64e06fa86d58bf4ff032f309407)

It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.

You can see the beginnings of this hole on the first day it sees the light (Feb. 23) on Earthview. Perhaps this suggests a different mechanism than snow melt?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Bruce on June 30, 2014, 06:33:07 AM
It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.
It was there last year and 2012, too. The ones nearby, as well. Don't know about earlier years.

There's something about that spot. Maybe a geothermal vent? Maybe a spot where currents and ocean floor topography conspire to drive an upwelling of warm, deeper water? An underwater base for space aliens?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Wipneus on June 30, 2014, 08:56:41 AM
Speaking of oddities, this one has been fascinating me for weeks:

It's NE of Resolute and Cornwallis Island.  That hole has been there since early June.

It was there in 2013 as well:
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: jdallen on June 30, 2014, 09:33:57 AM
According to this there is an inactive HC seep just north of that.
http://www.abds.is/publications/view_document/247-known-locations-of-hydrothermal-vents-and-hydrocarbon-seeps-in-the-arctic (http://www.abds.is/publications/view_document/247-known-locations-of-hydrothermal-vents-and-hydrocarbon-seeps-in-the-arctic)
Now isn't that interesting...
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: werther on June 30, 2014, 12:24:11 PM
On the polynia's... I remember them being subject of interest some time ago on Neven's blog.
One of them has the ominous name "Hell Gate".
Here's an overview of these regular polynia's:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArcticpolynias_zps333a4721.jpg&hash=3f75a961ed1466d58e299f7df60dc840)

According to some scientific studies (for example on the birdlife in and near these spots) they are mainly created by tidal currents in the channels between Norwegian Bay and the Baffin Bay system.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Pmt111500 on July 03, 2014, 06:22:23 PM
odd-looking clouds over Canada side of CAB yesterday. What the heck is going on, that micro-cyclone persisting for so long and now this. Looks totally disorganised, what ever else that is.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: pikaia on July 18, 2014, 11:48:34 AM
The sunspot number for July 17 was zero. We are at the maximum of the present solar cycle but the sun is now completely spotless.

 This cycle has been much lower than recent cycles, and there are reasons to suspect that the next cycle  will be absent, resulting in another Maunder Minimum, when the solar cycle shut down for several decades.

Paradoxically, the sun is dimmer when there are fewer sunspots. although this would do little to slow down global warming, but the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DoomInTheUK on July 18, 2014, 01:01:42 PM
Quote
Paradoxically, the sun is dimmer when there are fewer sunspots. although this would do little to slow down global warming, but the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

Sadly, no. There is nothing in the normal armoury of climate changes that can produce an ice age for at least a couple of thousand years, potentially ever.  Although the sun will be a tad weaker during the minimums it is slowly getting brighter. The effects of AGW frankly dwarf any direct changes in solar input.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on July 18, 2014, 01:22:16 PM
the Maunder Minimum was associated with the Little Ice Age. If we get another one then it will be hard to separate the effects of anthropogenic warming.

We will have measurement of solar output. We can run models with actual solar output and with normal solar levels and compare to give an idea of the effects of the solar minimum.

Similarly we can compare models with the enhanced GHG levels against normal levels.

This will give the broad picture of the scale of the effects at a global level.

Unfortunately at decadal predictions or for finer than regional scale, it seems the models are just not good enough to be trusted:
http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/can-we-trust-climate-models.html (http://julesandjames.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/can-we-trust-climate-models.html)

(Feel free to discuss further? should I open a separate thread?)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: pikaia on July 18, 2014, 02:30:41 PM
Sadly, no. There is nothing in the normal armoury of climate changes that can produce an ice age for at least a couple of thousand years, potentially ever.  Although the sun will be a tad weaker during the minimums it is slowly getting brighter. The effects of AGW frankly dwarf any direct changes in solar input.

It is not as simple as that. According to Wiki,
"... A causal connection between low sunspot activity and cold winters has recently been made using data from the NASA's Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment which shows that solar UV output is more variable over the course of the solar cycle than scientists had previously thought. In 2011 an article was published in the Nature Geoscience journal that could tie low solar activity to mild winters in some places (southern Europe and Canada) and colder winters in others (northern Europe and the United States)"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum)

As there were milder winters in some places during the so-called "Little Ice Age", the term is a bad one, imo, as the cooling was local rather than global. Canada and Southern Europe would have milder winters if it is repeated.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: S.Pansa on July 18, 2014, 03:41:28 PM
Hi, longtime lurker here.


There are quite a few papers out there, which did look into this thoroughly. SkS has a nice summary here (http://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-dent-AGW.html (http://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minimum-barely-dent-AGW.html)).

They all come more or less to the same conclusion: even a grand minimum like a maunder minimum will have little influence on AGW, not under a moderate emission pathway like RCP 4.5 (which we have left behind for good (bad) a few years ago), and even less so under BAU.

The following pic is from a Feulner & Rahmstorf paper from 2010 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=21 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/graphics.php?g=21))

Edit: finally I have found out how to attach a picture: The graphic is from Meehl 2013, free PDF here (www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/jma/meehl_grand_solar_2013.pdf (http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/ccr/jma/meehl_grand_solar_2013.pdf)), the second one the solar irradiance during the minimum.


Cheers

S. Pansa
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DavidR on July 19, 2014, 09:35:39 AM
Solar minimums are very useful for tracking global warming because they are a constant  value for a variable input.  If you  plot the temperature change at each solar minimum then you  can have no doubt that global  warming is occurring.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Nick_Naylor on July 19, 2014, 02:34:56 PM
If you  plot the temperature change at each solar minimum then you  can have no doubt that global  warming is occurring.

True, but it is honestly hard to have any doubt anyway without a predisposition to disbelief.  Firm skeptics will no doubt exploit any slowdown in the temperature record as "evidence" supporting their beliefs, no matter how temporary or how we'll explained it might be. Explaining it will be an extra hurdle in communicating what we know and how we know it.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DavidR on July 20, 2014, 03:25:55 PM
Nick,
totally  agree!. When the Arctic summer Ice disappears and temperatures are 2 degrees above average contrarians will  still  be claiming that it is just 'natural variation'.  Mapping the temperature rise based on the solar minimum merely  has the efficacy of removing the argument that the temperature rise is a consequence of solar maxima. 

No  evidence will convince the average contrarian. Thankfully the policy  here is simply to  ignore the supremely  ignorant  and discuss the evidence.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on August 07, 2014, 10:16:09 PM
S Pansa, David R,

I was a sceptic about AGW, at the end I was in doubt because I suspected a role for the sun, then I read the following paper. It crushed my scepticism.

It's come to mind because actually we've already had something similar to a Maunder Minimum, during the period of AGW, and AGW continued throughout that period.

Impact of global dimming and brightening on global warming, Wild et al 2007.
http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/wild/2006GL028031.pdf (http://www.iac.ethz.ch/people/wild/2006GL028031.pdf)
Quote
...Downward thermal radiation measured at 12 worldwide distributed sites from BSRN shows on average an increase of 0.26 Wm2 per year since the beginning of the measurements in 1992, in line with our expectations from greenhouse theory and models...


To estimate the integrated (overall) effect of variations in surface solar radiation over the past 40 years, we analysed the latest update of GEBA. In the majority of the surface solar radiation records from GEBA we find that, despite the widespread trend reversal from dimming to brightening, the amount of solar radiation at the surface has not reached the 1960 level.

Despite the fact that surface insolation at the turn of the millennium is rather lower than in the 1960s, land surface temperatures have increased by 0.8C over this period (Figure 1). This suggests that the net effect of surface solar forcing over the past decades cannot be the principal driver behind the overall temperature increase, since over the past 40 years, cooling from solar dimming still outweighs warming from solar brightening. Rather, the overall temperature increase since the 1960s can be attributed to greenhouse forcing as also evident in the BSRN data outlined above.

Thus, speculations that solar brightening rather than the greenhouse effect could have been the main cause of the overall global warming over the past decades appear unfounded.

In other words it doesn't matter whether people think the sun getting stronger could have caused GW, or whether changes in clouds due to changing cosmic ray flux could have caused GW (Svensmark). These idle speculations are wrong because at the surface insolation was less at the start of the 1990s than in the 1960s, yet over that period the planet warmed.

*The reduction of surface insolation between the 1960s and 1990s was of the order of a few watts/m^2, comparable to that in the Maunder Minimum (Wild 2009, Global dimming and brightening: A review).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Michael Hauber on August 19, 2014, 05:32:49 AM
There is a small area just north of Svalbaard which is currently covered in ice, but was open water at sea ice maximum in March.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DavidR on August 19, 2014, 11:02:22 AM
The ice around Svarlbaard has being consistently  moving south from the CAB for most of the summer at around 20 knots / day.  The ice here is drift  from the CAB not new ice.
This wind pattern appears to  occur every  few years. 
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: viddaloo on August 23, 2014, 04:31:14 PM
I first thought it was a bug in my script:

While 2012 generally has the biggest melt ever, a meltdown of 84.3% of its April max volume, it turns out that 2010 actually holds the record for biggest melt in terms of net volume: 19693 km³.

That’s just 1 km³ more than 2012. So 1 more km³, but only 81.2% volume loss, as 2010’s Winter maximum was at 24275 (compared to 2012 at 23365).

2010 and 2012 also had the same biggest melt day: Day 167 (June 16th), of 329 and 342 km³, respectively. By comparison, 2014 had a much later BMD, Day 181 (June 30th), and a much smaller maximum loss, 274 km³.

So the 2 biggest melters are:
19693 down to 4582 km³ (2010)
19692 down to 3673 km³ (2012)

Bronze goes to 2011 with a fairly good melt of 18375 km³ to 4302 km³ (81.0%). A bronze in melt volume, but silver in September minimum.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: viddaloo on August 31, 2014, 12:40:34 AM
Record low July melt in 2014: Continuing a strong trend of acceleratingly decreased July melt, 2014 saw only 5067 km³ melt away during the warmest Summer month. This is the lowest July melt ever in the 1979–2014 PIOMAS data series for Arctic sea ice volume. Surprisingly, perhaps, the #2 lowest ever July melt was in 2012, at 5619 km³. Something is clearly stopping sea ice from melting in the warmest of the Summer months, when even the biggest meltdown year in modern history sees a (then) record low July melt.

Smoke from forest fires raging before Summer Solstice?

Explore the mystery further in this thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,980.0.html).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 31, 2014, 02:36:05 PM
A cloudier Arctic in the summer which reflects more of the sun's energy back into space?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: crandles on August 31, 2014, 03:38:18 PM
I think the trend is to do with May and June melting out more so July is left with a harder task to melt as much volume.

The deviation from trend in 2014 does not seem very surprising to me. Area was relatively high compared to Extent. This meant there were relatively few holes in the pack where the albedo effect can have most effect in trapping heat which will find its way into melting ice.

(I was trying to tell DavidR that this would mean we would have a low volume melt year but he didn't seem to want to hear this.)

There could be other effects of course.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: viddaloo on September 04, 2014, 02:05:39 AM
Record low July melt in 2014

Record low combined July–August melt in 2014: Continuing a strong trend of acceleratingly decreased July–August melt, 2014 saw only 7253 km³ melt away during the warmest Summer months. This is the lowest July–August melt ever in the 1979–2014 PIOMAS data series for Arctic sea ice volume. Surprisingly, perhaps, the #3 lowest ever July–August melt was in 2012, at 8146 km³. Something is clearly stopping sea ice from melting in the warmest of the Summer months, when even the biggest meltdown year in modern history sees a (then) near record low July–August melt.

More evaporation leading to less insolation, perhaps?

Explore the mystery further in this thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,980.0.html).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: pikaia on September 04, 2014, 09:44:04 AM
viddaloo, isn't that what we would expect? If and when the Arctic is ice-free at the end of June, the melt in July and August will be zero. The absolute melting is declining, but what about the percentage melt?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Richard Rathbone on September 04, 2014, 11:40:03 AM
Record for a sustained recovery in August volume.

No 2-year period has added as much ice as Aug  2012 - to Aug 2014 did. There is a one year October spike that is larger (95-96) and July 2012-July 2014 was almost as large.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: viddaloo on September 05, 2014, 01:18:40 AM
viddaloo, isn't that what we would expect? If and when the Arctic is ice-free at the end of June, the melt in July and August will be zero. The absolute melting is declining, but what about the percentage melt?
Hi, pikaia,

it depends on what the base of the percentage is. This graph shows both: If the base is Winter Maximum, then the Jul/Aug melt % is slowly increasing (because more and more ice disappears for each year/decade). But if the base is yearly melt volume, then the graph (blue) is falling fast:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.arctic-sea-ice.net%2Findex.php%3Faction%3Ddlattach%3Btopic%3D980.0%3Battach%3D10169%3Bimage&hash=8fb63c3ad145ca2aaa20950af56dab27)

PS: Note also that the 2 May/June graphs are coming together around year 2022, telling us subtly that by that time, total melt volume will equal Winter Maximum volume, ie. Zero Ice Day.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: viddaloo on September 28, 2014, 09:00:36 PM
Occationally, the latest IJIS extent, which is for yesterday, was also day 1000 of the current Five Year Cycle that started on January 1st 2012(*). Yesterday also started the 1000-day Big Descent if my Five Year Cycle hypothesis is correct.

*) I had to throw out the shoot days for now, February 29th, as they were causing nothing but trouble :)

I will present the cycles later today in another thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,994.0.html).
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Laurent on October 17, 2014, 07:16:35 PM
Ice loss sends Alaskan temperatures soaring by 7C
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/17/ice-loss-sends-alaskan-temperatures-soaring-by-7c (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/17/ice-loss-sends-alaskan-temperatures-soaring-by-7c)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 12, 2015, 05:39:59 PM
I call this an oddity:

From E&E’s ClimateWire (http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2015/06/12/stories/1060020118) (subscription required):
Atmospheric O2 affects climate!

Quote
… findings [by Christopher Poulsen and others], published yesterday in Science, are surprising. Carbon dioxide is well-known as a greenhouse gas, as are methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide and more. But oxygen has not been implicated in warming the planet until now.

The study finds that when oxygen levels in the atmosphere drop, global temperatures get hotter, and vice versa.

Changes in the oxygen content of our atmosphere play out over millions of years, which means it is irrelevant on human timescales. So, although oxygen levels at present are decreasing, the effects would not be felt for many millenia.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 12, 2015, 06:39:17 PM
I call this an oddity:

From E&E’s ClimateWire (http://www.eenews.net/climatewire/2015/06/12/stories/1060020118) (subscription required):
Atmospheric O2 affects climate!

Quote
… findings [by Christopher Poulsen and others], published yesterday in Science, are surprising. Carbon dioxide is well-known as a greenhouse gas, as are methane, water vapor, nitrous oxide and more. But oxygen has not been implicated in warming the planet until now.

The study finds that when oxygen levels in the atmosphere drop, global temperatures get hotter, and vice versa.

Changes in the oxygen content of our atmosphere play out over millions of years, which means it is irrelevant on human timescales. So, although oxygen levels at present are decreasing, the effects would not be felt for many millenia.

Is it 1 April???

Or maybe The Onion is now getting papers published in E&E?

Oxyen levels are decreasing because of fossil fuel burning.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on June 12, 2015, 08:41:24 PM
Here is another source:    ScienceDaily (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/06/150611144250.htm) (article accessible)

Variations in atmospheric oxygen levels shaped Earth's climate through the ages
Quote
Summary:  Variations in the amount of oxygen in Earth's atmosphere significantly altered global climate throughout the planet's history. Efforts to reconstruct past climates must include this previously overlooked factor, a new study concludes.

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: ChrisReynolds on June 12, 2015, 09:48:30 PM
Ah right, it's published in Science, so that makes it worth paying attention to. And indeed the mechanism makes sense.

It was your link to E&E that made me suspicious. Energy & Environment has produced some papers that have literally had me laughing at their ineptitude. The most memorable was Beck's classic demonstration of Dunning Kruger, kindly hosted by the Fiends of Science.
http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/files/documents/CO2%20Gas%20Analysis-Ernst-Georg%20Beck.pdf (http://www.friendsofscience.org/assets/files/documents/CO2%20Gas%20Analysis-Ernst-Georg%20Beck.pdf)

I now find I had misremembered the idiotic Defreitas shambles about the ENSO driving global warming - that was published by the AGU.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Nightvid Cole on July 05, 2015, 04:07:01 AM
The concentration of ice on August 1 tells you with almost zero uncertainty what the final pack will look like (size and shape). Here is the example from 2012 with a threshold of 65% concentration:

Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Seumas on July 31, 2015, 06:54:19 PM
Nightvid Cole: I've been out of touch with this stuff for a while. What's the prediction for the final pack this year then?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: LRC1962 on August 05, 2015, 10:19:00 PM
This could go into a large number of places, but as it does have to do with a record event guess this can be as good a place as any.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-bear-diving-record-linked-to-melting-sea-ice-1.3180470 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/polar-bear-diving-record-linked-to-melting-sea-ice-1.3180470)
 Video evidenced polar bear dive. Does not indicate where location is but does seem to indicate that even last year ice conditions may have been poorer then satellites seem to show. Although even last year there were plenty of areas that were just like this.
Note: link near bottom of a 2011 700 km swim looking for seal.
Title: Re: Records and oddities - Greenland/Baffin
Post by: Gerald95051 on August 12, 2015, 07:02:06 PM
I compared the ice thickness images for mid-August for this year to those of the past several years, and this year is notable for the absence of the 5-metre-thick old ice against the north edges of Baffin Is. and Greenland. In every prior year that I checked (2012 for example) the mountains of ice (in red/orange) were present, and this year they are further west if they exist at all. Is this of any significance?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on August 12, 2015, 07:25:08 PM
Welcome to the forum, Gerald.  :)

It probably doesn't have much significance, as the model who produces these images has been having some problems (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1320.0.html) this melting season.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: seaicesailor on August 12, 2015, 07:52:54 PM
To add to Neven's comment, that model also has been updated at least once since 2012. You cannot compare apples to apples even within the same model.

But nevertheless last Winter there was strong sustained transpolar drift, which pushes that ice 'against the wall' forcing it into the CAA islands' channels and stretching it one side toward Beaufort and the other side toward Fram. Probably some of that ice is melting in Beaufort 'as we speak'.

Also a factor why CAA has been being so resilient this year.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: oren on August 13, 2015, 12:05:28 AM
To add another aspect, I believe we've actually seen some of the thickest ice move away from shore and get carried away to Beaufort and to its doom, regardless of the problems with the model, this is actually "true" to the extent it can be verified. The main impact of this might be the next melting season of 2016. If it has good weather for melting, there will be much less resistance with all this thick ice gone.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Nick_Naylor on August 13, 2015, 01:34:28 AM
I find myself wondering if the loss of this really solid ice might lead to a much more mobile ice pack.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: mmghosh on August 25, 2015, 03:50:11 AM
Charlotte Church sings A Requiem  for the Arctic Ice
https://www.facebook.com/events/1680127298888588/ (https://www.facebook.com/events/1680127298888588/)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on August 25, 2015, 11:01:39 AM
Thanks for the tip, but how is this a record or an oddity?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 25, 2015, 01:02:00 PM
Was the requiem recorded on vinyl?   :P
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: mmghosh on August 25, 2015, 01:37:15 PM
 ;D
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Stephen on October 05, 2015, 12:57:41 PM
South East Australia having its hottest start to spring since records began.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-05/canberra-experiences-earliest-30c-day-since-records-began/6829054 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-05/canberra-experiences-earliest-30c-day-since-records-began/6829054)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-05/melbourne-weather-hottest-start-to-spring/6828664 (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-05/melbourne-weather-hottest-start-to-spring/6828664)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: mercurybar on October 10, 2015, 01:18:16 AM
Looking at the latest Piomas data and projections my comment has nothing to do with what we as a scientific community can do to guide and advise political leaders or society in general because it seems nobody is listening. If we can agree that a complete loss of Arctic sea ice and a blue ocean event is only 7 years away and that global temperatures will rise by 2 degrees around 2032 then there is not much else for us to do. Record our failings for whatever form of intelligent life develops next on the planet? Too fatalistic? Honestly, I don’t know. As an educated man looking at the data and not instantly scoffing at the idea of the Earth becoming of a Mad Max post apocalyptic Kevin Costner world scares me. At a 2 degree rise many parts of the world will begin to have difficulty feeding their populations and that could be less than 15 years away. All of the predictions of what happens later in the century may not matter. How can humanity deal with a 25% reduction in food output? Throw in a little methane hydrate release, a few regional wars as mass migrations increase and a little sea level rise and we may see the end. I find myself fielding many questions from friends about where they should invest in property with the thought of securing an easier way of life for them and their children in the coming decade. Perhaps this is what we can best do now, help those that want to listen to have a better chance of making it through what we believe is coming. Given the current geopolitical climate and the shunning of science for a the belief in some omnipotent being looking down on us from above, I don’t hold much hope not only for avoiding the coming disaster but for ever getting out of it with some form of society that doesn’t look like the dark ages. Or, am I crazy?
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on October 10, 2015, 10:29:39 AM
Let's keep this topic restricted to records and oddities concerning sea ice only.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: mercurybar on October 10, 2015, 09:09:49 PM
Neven, Sure. Perhaps we should start a new thread.  However, this is the problem.  Article after article. Blog after blog. Publication after publication.  Thousands of educated scientist reporting data and every news cast includes one of "us" and one dissenter.  We outnumber the dissenters a 1000 to 1 yet they get the same face time. The best we get is a recent CNN article by Sutter that water-downs the problem and even then nobody listens. Europe falls apart in in 1915 and we mobilize our entire country to fight, fascism tries to rule us all in the 1940s and we put everything we have into stopping it, terrorism spreads across the globe after 9/11 and we spend trillions. We are looking at the very real possibility of the extinction of our entire species and since I took my first college class in the 90's we were talking about it and now, over twenty years later, we are still only talking and nothing is changing.  WTF are we really doing? I show current data to educated left leaning friends and even they don't want to hear it.  New Xbox game, birthday party for the kids, planning a vacation.  Where is the fight, why are we not standing up, grabbing a reporter, a politician, a friend and forcing them to look at what is coming.  A group of Americans stood up and risked their very lives on a train in France to stop an attack and they are, rightfully, heralded as heroes.  Where are our heroes? When do we all start to stand up and fight for the future of our children. So, let's move this topic to a new thread but I ask all of you, who is going to be our hero?  I guarantee you it is a more important question than any other of the net.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Neven on October 12, 2015, 10:36:47 PM
I agree, mercurybar. And there are a couple of topics in other categories discussing these things.
Title: Vale: CO2 400 ppm
Post by: DavidR on November 21, 2015, 08:06:20 AM
In the week 8-14 Nov the Mauna Loa CO2 measurement,  commonly  known as the Keeling Curve, went above 400 for the first time in this annual cycle.

The September average was 397.75.  El Nino events typically lead to significant increases in CO2 levels well above the long term trend increase.  With the long term trend  being an increase near 2.25 ppm it  seems highly unlikely that we will ever see a weekly measurement  below 400 again. 
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 09, 2016, 06:49:46 PM
As "Global Sea Ice area" is an odd metric [ ::) ], some mention here should be made of the ASIB post Global sea ice area record minimum (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/02/global-sea-ice-area-record-minimum-2.html) concerning Cryosphere Today Global SIA record being broken 8 Feb 2016,
Quote
It's not easy to see, but 2016 has dipped below the 2006 record minimum of 14.391 km2, and currently stands at 14.365 million km2, which is 25K km2 lower. ...

As a bonus, the Northern Hemisphere Daily Snow Extent graph (http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html) on the ASIG page appears to show a minimum snow extent for the same date.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.star.nesdis.noaa.gov%2Fsmcd%2Femb%2Fsnow%2Fplots%2Fdaily_snow_extent%2Fmultisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png&hash=c8c93c5f86894e9eadb1e8760de62287)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 18, 2016, 08:22:34 PM
Another odd metric, "Global Sea Ice Extent", has been immortalized on the ASIB:  Global sea ice extent minimum record (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/02/global-sea-ice-extent-minimum-record.html).  Neven wrote:
Quote
... data provided by the NSIDC shows that the Global sea ice extent record has been broken as well:  The old minimum record was reached in 2006 and stood at 16.766 million km2. As of today NSIDC Global SIE stands at 16.707 million km2. That's a 59K difference, and given the forecasts for the Arctic, Global SIE could go even lower.

Another pair of records recently reported are for global January temperature and monthly temperature anomaly:
January 2016: Shattering the Global Warming Monthly Record
By Phil Plait
Quote
The global temperature anomaly for January 2016 was 1.13° Celsius. That makes it the hottest January on record (the previous record was 0.95° C in 2007). But there’s more: 1.13° is the largest anomaly for any month since records began in 1880. There have only been monthly anomalies greater than 1°C three times before in recorded history, and those three were all from last year. The farther back in the past you go, the lower the anomalies are on average.

Yes, the world is getting hotter.
...

A lot of deniers will say this is a statistical fluctuation; sometimes things are just hotter. That is utter baloney. If that were true, you’d expect just as many record cold days/months/years as warm ones. Two Australian scientists looked into this and found record hot and cold days were about even … until the 1960s, then hot days started outpacing cold ones, and from 2000 to 2014 record heat outnumbered record cold by a factor of 12 to 1.

As it happens, we’re in the middle of an El Niño, an event in the Pacific Ocean that tends to warm surface temperatures. This is also one of if not the most intense on record. Some of that record-breaking heat in January is due to El Niño for sure, but not all or even a majority of it. As I pointed out recently, climate scientist Gavin Schmidt showed that El Niño only accounts for a fraction of a degree of this heating. Even accounting for El Niño years, things are getting hotter.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/02/17/january_2016_was_the_hottest_january_on_record.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2016/02/17/january_2016_was_the_hottest_january_on_record.html)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 18, 2016, 09:02:57 PM
Smallest PIOMAS monthly volume increase for January in the 2006-2016 record, as reported by Neven on the ASIB in PIOMAS February 2016 (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/02/piomas-february-2016.html).

When will the odd records end? :-\
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: magnamentis on February 18, 2016, 11:17:13 PM
@ zero growth & zero extent, summer and winter as it seams when it comes to ice but then will be heat records
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2016, 09:19:27 PM
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Espen on February 19, 2016, 09:22:57 PM
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848

Everything is bigger in the US? (45 F = 7,2 C)
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: DavidR on February 20, 2016, 12:20:02 AM
Another pair of records recently reported are for global January temperature and monthly temperature anomaly:
January 2016: Shattering the Global Warming Monthly Record
By Phil Plait
Quote
The global temperature anomaly for January 2016 was 1.13° Celsius. That makes it the hottest January on record (the previous record was 0.95° C in 2007). But there’s more: 1.13° is the largest anomaly for any month since records began in 1880. There have only been monthly anomalies greater than 1°C three times before in recorded history, and those three were all from last year.
.
It's not just that they  happened last year, it's that  they have happened consecutively since Oct 2015.

 In this El Nino cycle the last 4 months (1.06, 1.02, 1.11, 1.13) have all  been well  above the previous record hottest  month (0.95.).

 In the 1998 El Nino only one month (Feb 1998 , 0.88) exceeded the previous record month (0.78)and then by only  0.1 dC, but every  month from Feb -  August 1998 was hotter than January 1998.
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: Tensor on February 20, 2016, 04:29:12 AM
Quote
Brian McNoldy: Much of U.S. is slightly warmer than average, but North Pole area is 45°F warmer than average for this date!!

https://twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/700751482593742848

Everything is bigger in the US? (45 F = 7,2 C)

While the number is still bigger in the US, a difference of 45F is ~25C.    0F = -17.7C  45F = 7.2C   17.7+7.2 = 24.9
Title: Re: Records and oddities
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 22, 2016, 05:21:24 PM
Largest -ve anomaly on record for Barents sea.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FA8Kl1t9.jpg&hash=243ba07911b9ce7d25a5de1b7e991235)