Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Policy and solutions => Topic started by: JimD on July 14, 2013, 11:20:11 PM

Title: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on July 14, 2013, 11:20:11 PM
The below post is one I made on another blog awhile back.  It seemed worth bringing over here as it helps keep one's focus on what is happening out there in the real world that is a strong driver of AGW.  The scale of human infrastructure and activities are often obscured by our limited individual view of the world.  Seeing numbers put on issues that we all know are problems allows us to gain an understanding of how difficult it can be to alter what the current norm is.  Consider the below numbers in light of the attempt to convert the vehicle fleet to electric. Note:  I have edited the old post a bit so that it fits in better on the ASI Forum.

I was recently reading a series of blog posts where one poster was extolling electric vehicles and believed that before the end of this decade that production would be as high as 50% of the car market. So I decided to look into vehicle production data a bit. Some interesting points below. BTW I think he is very wrong and that we are perhaps a generation from that point. But a VAST fleet of ICE vehicles will be around for a long long time given the numbers below.  This has a follow on effect on carbon emissions and complicates any changeover to an all electric fleet as one has to maintain the old infrastructure as well as build a new one.  Resources will be getting scarce.

Global vehicle production data:
Numbers include cars, light commercial (SUV's, PU's, Vans and the like), heavy trucks, busses. Not included are off road vehicles, vehicles with less than 4 wheels, farm equipment and construction equipment, nor 4-wheel electric vehicles which are not capable of highway speeds (golf carts and such).

Global Production (millions) and Rate of increase

2013   ~90        7.0% (forecast)
2012     84.1     5.3%
2011     80.0     3.1%
2010     77.7    25.9%
2009     61.8   -12.4%
2008     70.5     -3.7%
2007     73.3      5.8%
2006     69.2      4.1%

China Production (millions) and Rate of increase

2012   19.3       4.6%
2011   18.4       0.4%
2010   18.3     32.4%
2009   13.8     48.3%
2008     9.3      4.7%
2007     8.9     22.0%
2006     7.2     25.9%

India Production (millions) Rate of increase

2012    4.1     5.5%
2011    3.9    10.4%
2010    3.6    34.7%
2009    2.6    13.3%
2008    2.3      3.5%
2007    2.3    11.6%
2006    2.0    24.2%


Global Fleet Total (cars, light commercial and SUV's) is estimated at approximately 1-1.1 billion.  Does not include heavy trucks, off road vehicles, farm equip, construction equip and the like.

It is very difficult to find non-paywalled stats on global heavy and medium truck sales/production but a good estimate is at least 2 million per year.


Electric/hybrid global total production ever built (all years included):
as of 2013 (March)

hybrids 6.3 million

electric (plus plug-in hybrids) 180 thousand

Toyota has built 5.124 million hybrids since their introduction in 1997.


Hybrid vehicle global production data (hybrids and plugin hybrids):

2013 2.0 million (forecast)
2012 1.55 million



Electric vehicle production (includes plug-in hybrids)

2013 +100 thousand (forecast) (US about 80K sales)
2012 65 thousand


IMS forecast in 2011 that electric vehicles production would reach 16 million/yr in 2021 and would account for 16% of sales of 100 million total vehicles. I have found other forecasts for electric vehicle production ranging from 3 to 20 million/yr for 2020. There is no consensus and some forecasts include electric vehicles which are not highway speed capable that other forecasts do not include.

It is worth noting that sales of electric vehicles in the US are struggling somewhat this year and likely to be below forecasts. Research indicates that all manufacturers are losing money on electric car sales and that for vehicles like the Volt it is as much as $20K each.

It is worth noting that GM has electric cars on the test track which have triple the battery capacity of the Volt (believe Bob Wallace had a post on this). This development, if suitable for full production, would change the forecast figures a lot going forward. Hinted at for production around 2018. Time will tell.

Recent news on June US auto sales indicates that the years total will be approximately 16 million on strongly rising sales.  Especially of large pickups and SUV's.  GM's top 2 selling vehicles are the Silverado pickup and the Chevy Cruz (I own one of them - get near 50mpg on the highway), Ford's top seller is the F-150 pickup, and Chrysler's top 2 are the Ram pickup and the Jeep Grand Cherokee SUV.  Medium and heavy truck sales in the US were projected in June at 300,000/year.

Considering that the average age of the current US fleet is 11.1 years there is a strong implication that the ICE vehicles being built now are going to be around for some time and the demand for replacement vehicles will be strong for many years.  Most of those replacements are going to be other ICE vehicles for a lot longer than the 5 years the other poster mentioned.  It is just really hard to cut that carbon tail.


http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-rd-boss-hi (http://www.hybridcars.com/gm-rd-boss-hi) ... batteries/

http://www.gnesg.com/index.php?option=c (http://www.gnesg.com/index.php?option=c) ... &Itemid=53

http://imsresearch.com/press-release/IM (http://imsresearch.com/press-release/IM) ... _2010_2135

http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/ (http://oica.net/category/production-statistics/)

http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/N (http://www.cleanenergyministerial.org/N) ... tlook.aspx

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/02/us-autos-usasales-idUSBRE9610IM20130702 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/02/us-autos-usasales-idUSBRE9610IM20130702)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on July 15, 2013, 03:48:50 AM
Cost of gasoline and batteries will have a large affect on when sales accelerate.

There have been a number of slanted articles on Volt cost per unit, but I don't believe any went so far as $20k loss per unit unless R&D costs are included.  For purposes of per unit sales I would suggest not including R&D or spreading out the costs over the full production build over many years.

Tesla is making a profit on each unit.  Very small amount when you take out ZEV credits, but still positive.  Frankly, I find this phenomenal for a small company's first 'designed from the ground up' car.  I am hoping they will convince other companies what can be done with EVs as they did with the Roadster, prompting GM to bring out the Volt.

The advantage EVs have over hybrids and why I think they will be adopted more quickly than hybrids were, is a wider audience.

Hybrids appealed to people that were concerned about the environment, or cutting oil imports.  In addition, those factors had to outweigh performance, size (although the Prius was deceptively large inside) and for many people, style.

EVs can have incredible performance, incredibly smooth, quiet and instant responsiveness and basically a drive quality that can't be matched.  The amount of room available in a well designed EV is phenomenal.  S when you add the above markets to the hybrid markets, the subtract those that have to drive beyond an EVs range each day, IMO you have a much larger market.

In my mind, what is critical is that we speed up the cleaning of the electric grid.  While about half of the USA's population lives in an area where an EV drawing electricity from the grid generates less GHGs than a Prius, that is still a lot of area for improvement.  Although, virtually all of the population of the USA lives in an area where an EV will generate less GHGs than the average light vehicle fleet.

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/electric-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf (http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/clean_vehicles/electric-car-global-warming-emissions-report.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on July 15, 2013, 05:44:06 PM
Here is a recent article that discusses EV costs.  Production costs have not come down any appreciable amount this year but MSRP's have dropped as much as 6 to7K.  So they are losing that much more than at the beginning of the year.  So 20K loss for a Volt is a reasonable number.

http://business.time.com/2013/07/13/falling-electric-car-prices-are-saving-or-destroying-the-ev-market/ (http://business.time.com/2013/07/13/falling-electric-car-prices-are-saving-or-destroying-the-ev-market/)

Here is another link which quotes a Reuters article based upon interviews with industry expert that Volt production costs are $75 to 89K per vehicle (yes it does count development costs in some way).  The number is disputed by GM.  However, with prices south of $40K right now that exceeds the figure in my first post by more than 2 times.  This strongly implies that the $20K loss per vehicle is a pretty good number.  Note this quote:
The GM executives who conceived the Volt as a leap-frog over the Prius -- well before the Obama administration even took office -- always thought of it as a marketing tool as much as a regular car, and justified the additional costs as a way to burnish GM's image.

http://theweek.com/article/index/233140/the-chevy-volts-89000-production-cost-a-waste-of-money (http://theweek.com/article/index/233140/the-chevy-volts-89000-production-cost-a-waste-of-money)

But the real point I was making above is not whether EV's are profitable (they are clearly not) or whether they become profitable (some will and many probably will not..it is always like that with cars).  The real point I was making is sales volumes are very small yet and that it will be some time (as in many years) before EV's have a substantial impact on total sales and thus impact carbon emissions.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on July 15, 2013, 10:01:09 PM
You will find no argument from me that it will take years before EVs make a dent in the overall market.
And I do agree that many, but not all, of the EVs are selling at a per unit loss, just not all.

Most first generation cars don't turn a profit for years.  The Prius took 7-9 years before it started making a profit.  Such is the way with new technology.

My point is the adoption of EVs will be much faster than the adoption of hybrids.  And while it is slow to start, it is already faster than hybrids.  As more people get a chance to experience electric driving, more people want it:)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on July 16, 2013, 10:36:13 PM
Quoting Reuters articles about EVs is as meaningful as quoting Wall Street journal articles about EVs and climate change. They have developed a strong bias in the last few years and their choice of "experts" to interview generally reflects this. Also see

http://climatecrocks.com/2013/07/16/climate-of-denial-at-reuters-mirrors-mainstream-media-climate-dithering/ (http://climatecrocks.com/2013/07/16/climate-of-denial-at-reuters-mirrors-mainstream-media-climate-dithering/)

I think it is more about manufacturing doubt than about news reporting.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on July 28, 2013, 04:27:56 PM
Here is an interesting report on the EV/PHEV market so far.
http://energypolicyinfo.com/2013/07/4527/ (http://energypolicyinfo.com/2013/07/4527/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 28, 2013, 05:00:26 PM
I agree that without incentives, the EV market will see only modest increases.  It would likely require a heavy monetary penalty (i.e., vehicle tax, gas tax) on ICE vehicles to “encourage” the switch to EV’s.  So the question becomes:  how likely are such incentives to happen? 

In the US, I could see it happening in California, and the Maryland governor is also taking climate change seriously.  But nationally?  The coasts will probably be drowning in sea level rise first -- so you’d be swapping your car for a boat, anyway.    ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on July 28, 2013, 05:09:14 PM
Z

Pretty much what my other data reported.  What we are seeing is the slow adaptation to a new technology.  Don't let the sales percentages fool you as they are always huge when starting from nothing.  We are talking about a hundred thousand in a 90 million market.  But progress is being made.  My point is that we have a generation of time to go on this replacement curve.  Unfortunately we don't have that kind of time left.

A big negative in the sales numbers is the lease factor.  In the 1st quarter of 2012 over 90% of the electric cars "sold" in the US were actually leased.  This is not good.  Current lease to sale numbers are also very bad and I have seen numbers near 75% leased.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 29, 2013, 03:57:05 PM
A big negative in the sales numbers is the lease factor.  In the 1st quarter of 2012 over 90% of the electric cars "sold" in the US were actually leased.  This is not good.  Current lease to sale numbers are also very bad and I have seen numbers near 75% leased.

Why is leasing bad?  It makes sense that early-adopters know the products will be improving and will likely want to upgrade to a newer model in short order.  (Or, they aren’t sure an EV is right for them, so it’s a good way for those “on the fence” to test it out.)  Another reason for the larger leasing numbers in the US could be because it can include the current $7,500 tax rebate in the cost even when the owner can’t take it themselves.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on July 29, 2013, 06:16:33 PM
In the industry having a high percentage of leases to sales is considered to be a sub-optimal situation.  They would always prefer to just move the car and not be getting it back some time in the future.  But they take what they can get.

In the case of electric vehicle the current lease prices were lowered dramatically recently (by as much as 1/3) due to low sales volumes.  Production had been based upon a higher projected sales number than actual sales turned out to be.  By lowering lease rates dramatically it allowed manufacturers to move vehicles off the lots which were just sitting there.  It also allows them to trumpet a surge in 'sales' which are actually more leases than sales.  This is a common marketing tactic and nothing really underhanded or crooked.  Car manufacturers play these games all the time.  Push good media stories to help ramp up 'sales'.

One of the downsides to this tactic is that the amount the manufacturers are losing per car has gone up with pushing the lease methodology.

Your points are quite valid.  There are pluses and minuses in every direction.  This is just a normal part of the process of trying to create a new technology.  They are going to lose money on electric vehicle sales for quite some time yet.  Eventually they will get sales volumes high enough to turn a profit.  I think we are way past the point where there is any chance that this technology will fail in the marketplace. 

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: John Batteen on August 04, 2013, 08:07:36 PM
I wish I still had the piece of paper around.  I was waiting on an oil change when I went to the Chevy Volt and did the math on the power/fuel consumption to get pounds of CO2 per mile emitted on gasoline, natural gas power, and coal power.  Gasoline and natural gas power were pretty close although gasoline was slightly less carbon.  Coal power was double the carbon of the natural gas and gasoline.  Cost-wise, it was cheaper to drive electric than gasoline though, because electricity is cheap in our region.  Natural gas is cheaper than oil.

Until the power comes from renewables, electric vehicles just shift demand from oil to natural gas or coal.  The carbon might not come out of the tailpipe but it comes from somewhere.

Researchers have recently discovered a catalyst that enables chemical photosynthesis of hydrocarbons from atmospheric carbon dioxide and water.  I think this, not electric vehicles, is the future of our transportation infrastructure.  We will just photosynthesize carbon-neutral liquid fuels.  This will enable us to keep and use all of our previous infrastructure.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 05, 2013, 03:59:52 AM
John, try Googling "state of charge Union of concerned scientists".
Their State of Charge paper is nicely done and makes a lot of similar comparisons.
However, I do believe gas and coal are about the same (coal is a bit worse) and natural gas is about half of both of those.

The power can came from renewables now.  All depends upon where your power comes from.  It really depends on where you live, or if your power is partially, or entirely self generated.

The thing I really like about them is an EV is a better driving experience, and can have much better performance than an ICE vehicle.  This, in addition to the convenience and efficiency will win over a lot of people as long as the range limits match their driving patterns.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 07, 2013, 08:23:49 PM
Chevy has slashed prices on the Volt by $5000 for 2014 models.  they are having trouble keeping pace with Toyota and Nissan.


http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/06/2418241/chevy-slashes-volt-price/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/06/2418241/chevy-slashes-volt-price/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 10, 2013, 05:14:40 PM
Whenever I hear or read the claim that electric cars use as much carbon as internal combustion vehicles I get angry. So I held my breath and bit my fingers for a while after reading that above until I cooled off.

I recommend informing yourselves with correct calculations before falling for the misinformation which inflates EV carbon use and understates gas car carbon use.

Start with something like http://goo.gl/cf793n (http://goo.gl/cf793n)

Then perhaps get the numbers for your area and choice of EV at
http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=bt2 (http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=bt2)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: John Batteen on August 11, 2013, 01:33:45 AM
According to that website, in my zip code of 55018 with a 2014 Chevy Volt, it will emit 280g of carbon dioxide per mile traveled.  A gallon of gas emits 20 pounds of carbon dioxide, or 9080g.  So 280g of carbon per mile is equivalent to 32.4 miles per gallon of gas.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 11, 2013, 05:19:27 AM
Well the EPA gas rating for the 2014 Volt is 35 mpg city so I'd guess they aren't including many electric miles in their calculation.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on August 11, 2013, 10:29:25 AM
Anyone know the amount of CO2e created in the production of cars?

As a rule of thumb I've been using 4 tonnes of CO2e per car but I remember my original sources were a bit vague.

The UK government (pretends?) that it wants to cut carbon emissions by 80% by 2050 (from 1991 levels?). It also claimed (pretended?) that the emissions at the start were about 11 tonnes CO2e per person. That's a budget of just over 2 tonnes per person.

Allowing 25% of your budget for transport gives 0.5 tonnes for transport.

If you put your whole transport ration into the embodied CO2, that's about 8 years - with no carbon budget for fuel, flying, trains, buses &etc.

I don't think we will have much movement on carbon emissions reduction until we have a decent carbon price.

$1000 per tonne of CO2e anyone?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JayW on August 11, 2013, 12:12:56 PM
I just found this forum, and what a breath of fresh air to see so much information on the state of the arctic.  Thanks Neven, and all of you posters who are much more knowledgeable than I on these issues.

I have decided my next car will be a Tesla.  The current Model S is a marvel of engineering and vision, but starts at about $70,000 US.  It has received major awards, including "Consumer Reports" declaring it the, "best car they ever tested".   CEO Elon Musk has said that a mass market EV, with a price around 35,000 US and a 200 mile range around 2016-2017, is it's goal following the release off the Model X SUV, which it's due in 12-18 months.

Tesla is installing supercharging stations, powered by solar panels nationwide, which are also free to use for Model S owners forever.  Many have said this company will fail, however I believe it will dramatically increase the adoption of EVs.  I actual put my only retire contribution ever, into the company, basically betting my retirement that EVs are the future.

I'm just a carpenter, but I have been crunching the numbers.  Solar City, is a company run by the cousins of Elon Musk, that will put solar panels on your house which are leased to bring costs down for the consumer.  A friend had a consultation and was extremely impressed with them.  Would cut their electric bill in half apparently. By switching from gas in the car, and oil for hot water (I already heat almost exclusively with wood), to solar and an EV.  I can almost afford a Tesla now, but it's just out of reach for the near future.

Looking forward to learning from this forum!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2013, 04:44:58 PM
JayW

Welcome.

Re your electric car purchase.  I found this today on Climate Progress and thought I would pass it on to you.  I had not seen such an analysis before and figured it would be very relevant to many considering buying hybrids or all electric's.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/08/2436471/report-most-states-rely-too-heavily-on-fossil-fuels-for-electric-cars-to-be-climate-friendly/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/08/2436471/report-most-states-rely-too-heavily-on-fossil-fuels-for-electric-cars-to-be-climate-friendly/)

A new report from Climate Central has found that in 39 states, an electric car actually produces more emissions from its manufacture to its 50,000th mile than a gas and electric-powered hybrid.

Note that the overall state numbers would vary internally depending on where one lived as your specific location might be more or less carbon intensive due to the local power companies source of energy for generating electricity. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 11, 2013, 11:53:50 PM
That article appears to be a repeat of what the WSJ published earlier this year. The entire argument is based around the assumption of the carbon cost of the battery. Clearly they used the largest possible carbon cost of 40,000 lbs in their accounting. If you look at other attempts to account for battery carbon costs like
http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media_IOE/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf (http://www.environment.ucla.edu/media_IOE/files/BatteryElectricVehicleLCA2012-rh-ptd.pdf)

You'll see they use 8,000lbs. You'll also see that lifecycle carbon costs of the BEV are half of the equivalent conventional vehicle (figure 2 page 8).

There has been a concerted effort to inflate the carbon costs of EVs similar to the effort to claim it was going to be too expensive to deal with CFCs, deal with acid rain, deny climate change. We eventually learned the truth about all the false claims of the WSJ. I suspect we'll eventually understand battery costs better too.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on August 12, 2013, 12:26:20 AM
ghoti

Perhaps I should investigate your comment (I suspect I would agree) but the source of the CP article that JimD noted was:

A Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013.  from climate central
http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/ClimateFriendlyCarsReport_Final.pdf (http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/ClimateFriendlyCarsReport_Final.pdf)

This gives the embodied CO2e as 16.4 tonnes for a gasoline car , 15.6 for a hybrid and 27 tonnes for the all electric car.

In line with my previous post this makes the embodied CO2e in any of these cars more than 30 years of your carbon ration for transport.

And remember that leaves no carbon budget for fuel, flying, trains, buses &etc.

Here's a small beginning for better transport: http://www.andbike.cc/cycling-and-bike-gear/a-week-with-a-bamboo-bike/ (http://www.andbike.cc/cycling-and-bike-gear/a-week-with-a-bamboo-bike/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 12, 2013, 01:48:08 AM
Geoff, that paper is not bad, but has some serious considerations.
They focus on a 50,000 mile lifespan for cars, with less focus on 100,000 mile lifespans.
The longer the lifespan the greater the advantage of the EV.
I think focusing on 100,000 mile lifespans and giving data for the 150,000 mile rides pans would give a better picture.

Second, they often mention how few states an EV is better than a hybrid.  Not once do they mention what the population percentage is. 

In addition, their EV manufacturing is questionable.  They reference two papers by Hawkins.  In an early paper by Hawkins his calculations included a static electric motor which weighed 1000kgs.  Hawkins cleared this up later, but still ended up with a 110kg motor where the Leafs motor is actually half that.

The paper does not take into consideration that the batteries are still useful even after they have reached the end of their useful automotive life.

I agree EVs are not the friendliest form of transportation.  Biking and hiking are definitely better.  And the source of your electricity determines a lot about how clean an EV is.

But EVs are getting cleaner and cleaner, and gas cars are getting dirtier.  As manufacturing improves, that will also help on the other end.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on August 12, 2013, 02:48:53 AM
Zythryn

But EVs are getting cleaner and cleaner, and gas cars are getting dirtier.  As manufacturing improves, that will also help on the other end.
Yes, EVs are worth supporting but we should find ways of living that doesn't need so many cars. I have written on in the past (starting in the 1970s). Here's one that I'm not particularly proud of but it makes some of the theoretical points: http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/a-parable-of-four-villages/ (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/a-parable-of-four-villages/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: OldLeatherneck on August 12, 2013, 10:58:21 PM
One other thing to consider about transitioning to EVs is what is going to happen to the ICE vehicles that are traded in.  Being the good capitalists that we are, I can imagine that many of them will be sold to third world countries where they will be poorly maintained.  That would be very similar to moving much of the US heavy manufacturing to China.  IT has little or no effect on the global emission scenario.

For many year, when I lived in a rural area of Arizona, my second vehicle was a large 4WD pick-up truck.  When I came to my senses and realized that I could no longer justify owning that vehicle, I put it up for sale.  It was purchased my a rancher in Mexico.  I would imagine that it is being currently driven 3-4 times as many miles per year than I drove it, over much rougher terrain.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 13, 2013, 04:44:37 AM
Sorry for being so repetitive but I guess I'm really really bothered by inflated claims of EV carbon footprints. So one more link:

http://theenergycollective.com/maxbaumhefner/259066/electric-cars-are-cleaner-today-and-will-only-get-cleaner-tomorrow (http://theenergycollective.com/maxbaumhefner/259066/electric-cars-are-cleaner-today-and-will-only-get-cleaner-tomorrow)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: John Batteen on August 13, 2013, 04:18:04 PM
Ghoti, I ran the same EPA calculator again with a 2014 Chevy Spark EV in my region 55018, so the results will be unambigiously from electric miles rather than gas miles.   250g CO2 per mile.  Again a gallon of gasoline releases 9080g CO2, so dividing that out, running a 2014 Chevy Spark EV on all electric power is the equivalent of driving a 36.32 mpg vehicle in my region.  Even if we take the national average of 190g CO2 per mile, that's 47.79 mpg.

At least in my region, there are gasoline-burning cars that emit less carbon than electric vehicles.  To my south in Iowa where they have loads of wind power, it might make sense to drive an EV, but not here.  If we had sensible small European cars that get 40-60mpg, burning gasoline would be the clear winner across wide swaths of the nation.  Only areas with significant sources of renewable energy would do better to drive EVs.  To be fair to ghoti, at the national average of 190g CO2 per mile, EVs are on average better than our current fleet of gasoline vehicles, but this varies widely from region to region and if Americans didn't love to drive SUVs it would probably only be a break-even.

I just rolled over 251,000 miles on my 1996 Saturn SL1 and I average 45-48 mpg in the summer and 30-35 mpg in the winter.  I'll be watching with interest over the next decade to see if any of these EVs can make it to 250k.  I'm shooting to make 300k before I buy a replacement car (which is gonna be another Saturn.  :) ).  I paid $850 for this car because it was a project, but all told I still only spent about $2000.  If you can't afford a new vehicle, I would totally recommend a Saturn.  I've seen em make 350k miles.  98-02 SW1/SC1/SL1 get the best fuel economy out of all of them because they have the highest geared transmissions.  Put on a $60 ram air intake like I did and you will save tons of gas.  Mine paid for itself in 3 tanks.  I saw an article maybe 5 years ago that it was more environmentally friendly to drive an old inefficient beater into the ground than it was to buy a new car, due to all the emissions and pollution from manufacturing a new one.  I don't know if this is still true but it wouldn't surprise me.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2013, 05:26:53 PM
Companies are starting to see they have situations where electric trucks work well: "daily routes are often exactly the same, meaning range needs are fixed and predictable, and the vehicles always return to the same spot for the night, making re-charging easier."

A project in Texas is bringing electric trucks there for a two-year test.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/29/2546831/pilot-project-bringing-electric-delivery-trucks-texas/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/08/29/2546831/pilot-project-bringing-electric-delivery-trucks-texas/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 30, 2013, 06:22:47 PM
Along a similar line one can do that kind of thing with propane as well.  Forty years ago I was working on oil rigs (I know, but I knew nothing about all this stuff then and jobs were hard to find) in the desert in Wyoming.  A lot of us had our pickups and suburban's converted ($300/ea) to run on propane.  A lot of the rig equipment used propane and we had a huge tank and we would fill the trucks up every day and run back and forth to town where we lived (100 mi round trip or so).  Worked pretty well.  Same idea is used with city busses in many locations.  Boone Pickens idea to switch the vehicle fleet to natural gas is a version of this same idea.

Note that I must confess the rig owners did not know we were using their propane to fill up our vehicles.  Fuel costs for a time were very low  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on September 24, 2013, 05:28:16 PM
The below link is to a very interesting map - click on it for a big version (did I mention I like maps) that shows graphically the best low-carbon charging locations for electric car charging.

The orginal purpose of the map is to show where electric car charging ends up using the most low-carbon electricity, and the data reflect that. Each country has a number attached to it, which is the number of grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilometer. This means how much CO2 is emitted per kilometer traveled. It takes into account vehicle manufacturing carbon emissions as well, though that number is held constant in each country.

The US unsurprisingly is not all that high on the list.

According to this map, the winners with the lowest numbers are Iceland, Paraguay, Uruguay, Norway, Sweden, France, and Switzerland. Some countries are slightly better, classified as “fossil light” — Canada, New Zealand, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Belgium, Russia, Spain, and much of Eastern Europe.

The worst countries with the most carbon-intensive fuel mixes are, unfortunately, a lot of high-population countries with high coal and oil consumption. India leads this pack, with 370 grams CO2 equivalent per kilometer. South Africa, Australia, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, China, Greece, and Estonia.

The middle of the pack includes the United States, Mexico, Pakistan, Turkey, Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Philippines, and most of the rest of Europe.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/23/2662931/map-carbon-intensity/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/09/23/2662931/map-carbon-intensity/)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on November 20, 2013, 05:07:01 PM
A bit of good news.  Not entirely new, but the trend which showed up a few years ago seems to be holding.

Has America hit peak cars?

In what could be a bellwether for the US economy and its struggling car industry, Americans appear to be losing their luster for cars, driving less, obtaining fewer licenses, and using less gasoline....

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/11/has-america-hit-peak-cars/ (http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/11/has-america-hit-peak-cars/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ggelsrinc on November 20, 2013, 06:17:30 PM
I reached my peak car times back in the '70s, when I bought my second VW, because my wife started working. Since I gave up on cars and gasoline more than 30 years ago and started using my feet, I might be in the auto market in the near future, if automakers can accommodate my needs. I'm looking for something like this:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fen%2F5%2F51%2FThe_Flintstones.jpg&hash=327fd000502e017d604700fd7d1b61e7)

"yabba dabba doo"


 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on November 20, 2013, 10:41:45 PM
What happened to traffic?
http://transportationist.org/2013/11/07/what-happened-to-traffic/ (http://transportationist.org/2013/11/07/what-happened-to-traffic/)

Some 2030 ramblings.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bruce Steele on November 28, 2013, 04:28:00 AM
    Zen Car .Here is a Canadian electric plug in car. Cheap and strangely enough only available in B.C., illegal in the rest of Canada. The market is the U.S.  Now what can Australia do for our electric fleet?   

http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ri2BG2qOvCg?feature=player_detailpage (http://www.youtube.com/embed/Ri2BG2qOvCg?feature=player_detailpage)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on November 28, 2013, 04:35:50 PM
Hi Bruce. I actually bought one of those a few years ago (but note that it's spelled with two n's). It was fun, but wasn't great in the winter as it didn't hold a charge very well. As I understand it, they stopped producing a couple years ago. But maybe they just aren't selling them in the US?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on November 28, 2013, 11:32:28 PM
http://peterfromtexas.tumblr.com/post/65983506767/how-public-transportation-can-reduce-congestion (http://peterfromtexas.tumblr.com/post/65983506767/how-public-transportation-can-reduce-congestion)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on December 17, 2013, 08:28:57 PM
The U.S. Is A Gas-Guzzling Horror Show, In 1 Chart

Ugly numbers. 

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/16/us-gas-consumption_n_4454472.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/16/us-gas-consumption_n_4454472.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on December 24, 2013, 05:29:47 PM
US Department of Energy Prediction
http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/22/us-predicts-gas-still-dominant-in-2040 (http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/22/us-predicts-gas-still-dominant-in-2040)
AND ( unfortunately not much shift to other fuel - power )
"by 2040, the number of gas-powered vehicles on the road will fall from today's 82 percent to 78 percent."
Only a Four Percent Decrease in 26 Years. bah humbug.

Has anyone seen a prediction of when gasoline - petrol will be less than 50% of vehicle travel ?
Includes hybrids.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on December 24, 2013, 08:49:30 PM
US Department of Energy Prediction
http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/22/us-predicts-gas-still-dominant-in-2040 (http://www.autoblog.com/2013/12/22/us-predicts-gas-still-dominant-in-2040)
AND ( unfortunately not much shift to other fuel - power )
"by 2040, the number of gas-powered vehicles on the road will fall from today's 82 percent to 78 percent."
Only a Four Percent Decrease in 26 Years. bah humbug.

Has anyone seen a prediction of when gasoline - petrol will be less than 50% of vehicle travel ?
Includes hybrids.

Jack,

I don't have a link at hand right now though it may be earlier in this thread, but I have seen guestimates of hitting 50% non gas/diesel vehicles earlier than 2040 so I am a little leery of only being down to 78% by then.  But it will most likely take a generation to get to 50% electric at the current pace of acceptance of the new technology.  Of course, a change in public policy could impact the pace of change.  Of early climate disaster changes motivations.  But with the drilling boom which is going on in the US holding down fuel prices it will take a lot of effort to really boost the rate of electric car sales.  And there is the possibility they might stagnate a bit too I guess.

There are a lot of questionable numbers in that report in comparison to many other analysis out there so I would hazard that their assumptions will be questioned quite a bit.  Did the fossil fuel industry have undue influence in the writing of the report or in setting the assumptions used to generate the numbers?  We clearly cannot afford to have the fleet average at only 37.5 mpg and having the average American drive 30% MORE miles than they are now in 2040.  Events may overtake their numbers in-between now and then.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2013, 03:49:15 AM
Not sure of the source of this data, but it says 1 of 25 new car sales in the US in 2013 was an electric or hybrid vehicle:

http://blog.opower.com/2013/12/10-energy-numbers-to-remember-from-2013/ (http://blog.opower.com/2013/12/10-energy-numbers-to-remember-from-2013/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2013, 02:07:38 PM
It's time for radical ideas, so here's one:

The government decrees the new car fleet must be 90% pure-electric by 2020.  Companies can trade points, so GM can pay all-electric Tesla  (which can then ramp up its sales) during the time GM lags behind the curve.  Eliminate dealer contracts that keep out small car makers like Tesla, but keep safety standards.  (NHTSA just reaffirmed the Tesla Model S to be the safest car ever!)

Gas stations must provide charging outlets.  By the end of 2014, there must be at least two 110V plugs for each gas pump (in parking area away from the pumps).  High-use stations must provide quick-chargers.  Charging cost will be regulated much like gas prices are today.  Charging networks will not require their own card to access a charger.  Businesses must provide (shareable) charging outlets for their employees.

Most people drive less than 40 miles/day, which today's electric vehicles (EV's) can easily handle.  More EV sales will mean more higher-mileage cars come on the market, for less cost.

Will long trips by car take longer to accomplish with EV's?  You bet.  Travelers can spend the charge time eating and playing with their smart phones -- we've gotten really good at that.  Maybe we'll even start to exercise while we charge the car.  Maybe we'll decide we'd rather communicate by Skype, instead of making the trip -- also a winner.  Or (gasp) take the bus, or the train.  It's time to embrace the laziness, or change your life!
Air travel will add an increasing carbon fee.  (The EU suggested start price was only $2/person*trip, for heaven's sake.)

Existing gasoline vehicles will pay a carbon fee with annual registration, which will increase each year.  Commercial vehicles (including vans) will have (tax?) incentives applied to help increase EV usage and further development of large electric vehicles.  Businesses have to figure out how they can work around the limitations of EV's, too.

What have I missed?  Tractor-trailers and farm machinery will take a bit longer to change over.  But hey, we could make this happen!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2013, 04:11:42 PM
ExxonMobile recently tweeted this:

"GHG emissions related to energy use are projected to plateau by 2030"
and:
"The US is likely to use slightly less energy in total & about 20% less energy per person by 2040"

They have a "quiz" on their website ( exxonmobil.com/quiz ) with questions like:
"The energy concentrated in one gallon of gasoline is also enough to keep your smartphone running for how many days?"

 ::)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on December 25, 2013, 04:34:11 PM
I think your car idea is within the realm of physical possibility but politically it would be hard to imagine working it out.  But it sure would help a lot.

Retooling the vehicle industry that much within 7 years would be very hard but I think we could make it happen.  Supplies of raw materials for the electrics; i.e. elements needed for batteries and a much greater amount of carbon fiber and such might be hard to obtain in such masses.  But then who says we need as many cars as we have. 

Here in the US we have a huge problem with our culture of driving such massive vehicles.  There are probably 100 million big SUV's and 1/2 to 1 ton pickups/vans on the road.  Now about 80% of them are not needed by their owners as these are really work vehicles, but that is what folks drive.  You should see the looks on the faces of the men here in AZ when I tell them I do not own a pickup and just rent one when I need it (Home Depot rents 1 tons for $20/75 minutes or Uhaul one for a day for like $50).  They just commute in them and never get them dirty mostly.  Saves thousands a year not owning one.  Another big problem with so many driving huge vehicles is that automakers are forced to armor up the small cars (safety standards) to keep people alive when they impact the big vehicles.  80% less big vehicles and peal the armor out of the cars and fuel mileage goes way up.  I had a 1984 Honda Civic which got 63 mpg before they started armoring the cars and now even a Prius only gets about 50mpg.  It is mostly about how much weight the engine has to pull around.

So may solutions so little accomplished.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 25, 2013, 07:55:35 PM
There should be big legal & tax incentives for car-sharing.  And for turning in an old gas-powered car, or down-sizing -- I am reminded of the "cash for clunkers" program that happened a while back.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on December 26, 2013, 04:34:31 PM
Re cash for clunkers.  One  has to keep the car industry lobbyists out of the regulations on how to take old car off the streets however.  The cash for clunkers program was designed to boost car sales and ended up hurting the poor as it ran the price of used cars way up.  We would need to design it the right way.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2013, 07:17:10 PM
Because EVs are still evolving, it would be good to encourage rental of new cars.  This would make more people likely to switch to newer/better cars as they are developed, and provide a good supply of used EVs for that market.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 07, 2014, 01:21:00 AM
I just found some data on electric car sales for 2013 in an article on Climate Progress.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/06/3121711/plug-electric-vehicle-sales/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/01/06/3121711/plug-electric-vehicle-sales/)

In the first post in this thread the sales projections for plug-ins for this year in the US were put at 80K and global at 100K+.  The article indicates actual US sales were 96K.  So actual turned out on the positive side (discounted prices mid-year turned sales around).  Naturally lower fuel prices in the US and higher mpg vehicles on sale impact electric sales so one has to be a little impressed with the results.  But, all in all, it was a good year for electrics and pace of growth was in line with expectations or a little better.  It will be interesting to see the global numbers.

Sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles soared by 84 percent from 2012 to 2013 for a total of more than 96,000, according to data from Ward’s Automotive. 16 different plug-in models are currently available, and with more on the way, those numbers could jump again in 2014.

In 2013, Americans bought nearly 49,000 plug-in hybrids — vehicles that can run on traditional fuels but have batteries that can be charged by plugging into various types of electric outlets. This was a 27 percent jump from the year before.
...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on January 07, 2014, 08:38:09 PM
JimD: Reply #45;
I just found some data on electric car sales for 2013 in an article on Climate Progress.
Good find - thanks for reply.

We get One Percent ( 1%) of automobiles to alternate "fuel" (non ff) and if the exponential growth rate continues keep an eye and ear out for when 50% of automobile miles are by other than ff and we will have done something great.
 
Let's hope alternate electricity generation keeps pace.

For those interested in USA data,

US Census Bureau has "The 2012 Statistical Abstract" onLine
http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/transportation/motor_vehicle_registrations_alternative_fueled_vehicles.html (http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/transportation/motor_vehicle_registrations_alternative_fueled_vehicles.html)

Also, there is "Highway Statistics Series"
http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfm (http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/statistics.cfm)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on January 08, 2014, 12:04:38 AM
The problem with electric cars is they do nothing to change consumeristic habits or unsustainable modes of living. In fact, quite the opposite. I don't think that the emissions reduction from switching from an existing, say Honda Civic, to a new plug in outweighs the energy/resources/emissions from creating the new plug in and shifts the emissions associated with combustion to power generation elsewhere. I could be wrong. Regardless, it facilitates our unsustainable motering ways.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 08, 2014, 01:31:10 AM
Regardless, it facilitates our unsustainable motering ways.

Quite.

When it is possible to move a person around at a fuel efficiency of thousands of miles per gallon (refer to the Shell mileage challenge) or at 100mph using only a few horsepower (check out the stats on the high speed solar powered cars that race in Australia) or at 85mph using only muscle power (www.speed101.com (http://www.speed101.com)) - why get excited about a few electric powered cars that are massively resource intensive and still insist on shunting around a tonne or more of useless mass around to continue to meet the expectations people have in response to a fossil fuel powered infrastructure where trains somehow stopped being the sensible way to move significant masses around?

It would be possible to have such radically different transportation system for both mass and warm bodies, but we continue to be blind to it as a civilisation - instead seeking to simply switch out the power plant in the existing flawed vehicles.

Ignorance, not progress.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on January 08, 2014, 07:00:30 PM
ritter and ccgwebmaster,

I do not believe this conversation (thread) is about defending electric vehicles.

I'll promote - campaign - vote for as President of the USA anyone who reduces
automobile transportation by 25% - shucks maybe 10%.

Would be nice if our forefathers and ancestors had developed a mass transport infrastructure (rail & bus) as the continued dominant mode.

How about the 2015 marketing of Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles (non-ff) to be in showrooms?
Will there be an exponential growth rate there in a few years?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on January 08, 2014, 07:40:45 PM
ritter and ccgwebmaster,

I do not believe this conversation (thread) is about defending electric vehicles.
Agreed. However, the masses get excited by the "green" "progressive" environmentally conscious" purchase of said vehicles. It needs to be pointed out that they solve nothing about our current conundrum and are by no means the panacea they are marketed to be. I know many hear understand that.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on January 08, 2014, 08:02:18 PM
How about the 2015 marketing of Hydrogen Fueled Vehicles (non-ff) to be in showrooms?
Will there be an exponential growth rate there in a few years?
It is to early for that, yet. Power to gas (hydrogen or also methane) is still in prototype state (largest here is only 6MW e.g. by Audi: http://www.dvgw-innovation.de/fileadmin/Innovationsdateien/greenfacts_powertogas_landkarte.pdf (http://www.dvgw-innovation.de/fileadmin/Innovationsdateien/greenfacts_powertogas_landkarte.pdf) ).
Secondly that will be needed after power from renewables exeeds demand of electricity and heat - that still may take 10 years to happen frequently enough (in US probably even some more years).

But after that time non-fossil-fuels could be much more weigth & cost effective than to buy a battery for 1000 times more than the value of the energy stored...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 08, 2014, 08:22:30 PM
ritter and ccgwebmaster,

I do not believe this conversation (thread) is about defending electric vehicles.
Agreed. However, the masses get excited by the "green" "progressive" environmentally conscious" purchase of said vehicles. It needs to be pointed out that they solve nothing about our current conundrum and are by no means the panacea they are marketed to be. I know many hear understand that.

My real point was that it's already possible to move people at highway speeds in personal transportation solutions at an absolutely tiny fraction of the power being used today (under 1 hp or under 1kw depending which measure you prefer).

So why aren't we? Why are all the "new" hydrogen cars or electric cars trying to perpetuate the gross inefficiencies of the existing cumbersome fleet (the result of an arms race between colliding bodies plus the amount of freight moving long distance on the same road infrastructure)?

Except for the fringe activities - the fully faired recumbent bicycles, the solar powered challenge cars and the shell mileage challenge - I'm not really aware of serious efforts to investigate the potential of high speed low energy input personal transportation.

Just more of the same with a different power plant. That's hardly creative.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2014, 05:23:05 AM
Several of the last handful of comments hit exactly on why I started this thread. 

Many people just do not have a good understanding of the scope and scale of the global vehicle fleet.  The idea that we can switch to electric vehicles and solve our fossil fuel consumption problem (especially in any meaningful time frame) is mistaken.  Just like the idea of hydrogen cars won't fix it either. 

The infrastructure change over time is far too long and, as pointed out, where you get your electricity matters as if it is from a coal plant you are better off driving a gas vehicle. 

BAU with our current fleet will not work.  Green-BAU with an electric fleet will not happen in time and would not have much chance of making a difference to the end result.

There also lies out there a discussion about the idea of going back to trains and other forms of public transport.  A much better solution in terms of emissions, but is there time to execute that option either??  Could it be done in 20 years??  If not, would doing it be worth the resources?  What about that?  Is it just another Green-BAU solution?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on January 09, 2014, 02:34:18 PM
This seems to be a good idea ! The video is subtitled in English !
http://velocar.fr/index-en.html (http://velocar.fr/index-en.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ralphw on January 09, 2014, 03:39:09 PM
The future use and production of cars will be entirely constrained by the fuel (oil, biofuels, electricity etc.) available to power them.  Conventional crude oil production is just about at its global all time peak,  so it is only through alternative energy sources and more efficient vehicles that car usage can increase in the future.  My car is diesel powered and European diesel is 5% biofuel.  The car returns 70 mpg (imperial) with careful driving.  (One one long journey I got 97.4 mpg on the trip computer).  This is probably close to the limit for conventional vehicles. (meeting practical requirements for safety, production costs and general utility). 

The future growth of alternative energy sources is also constrained, partly by price (what price can the global economy support?) and partly by physical limits (land and water to grow biofuels, etc.).   At European retail rates ($7-$8 / US gallon) even gas to liquid and coal to liquid conversion is economic,  but that is before the high tax rates are accounted for.  Most vehicles can be converted to run on LPG or CNG with moderate cost and utility implications.  But again,  the limit will be the economic supply of the fuel.  It has many other uses.

Oil consumption for transport in OECD countries has been falling since 2005.  This, I suspect, was the economic constraint that popped the financial bubble in 2008.   From now on,  the global economy is constrained by the supply of oil,  not the other way round.  The countries that did worst in the 2008 crisis (Portugal, Ireland,  Italy, Greece,  Spain etc. ) were precisely the ones with the highest per capita oil import bills.  Italy saw a 30% decline in oil consumption.

Electric cars as yet fail on the capital cost and utility scores.  1 year old electric Nissan leafs can be bought for less than half price,  no shortage of vehicles on the market.  Clearly early adopters are underwhelmed.   Until price falls and utility rises they will not compete on an open market.

Globally car production will follow the global economy, and that is a rapidly diverging one,  with rising poverty and exploding wealth gaps.  Luxury and prestige car markets are booming,  the most fuel efficient mass market manufactures are facing bankruptcy.  The Chinese market is booming,  but it is only a matter of a few years before they hit their own financial collapse.
 


Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on January 09, 2014, 04:29:27 PM
Several of the last handful of comments hit exactly on why I started this thread. 
JimD,
I think it is excellent there are some extra comments and I hope I made it controversial
"I do not believe this conversation (thread) is about defending electric vehicles"

Another comment I would like to have considered is
"I appreciate and admire people who will try to solve problems with less than a perfect solution"

Now these questions I keep asking you about 'letting me know' when 50% or less of automobile transportation is emphasis: non-fossil-fuel "powered" (not saying prefer electric nor hydrogen nor wood-burning steamers).  You know, I never expect an answer.  If I live to 2050 I'll be 107.  2075 = 132. LOL

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2014, 05:11:59 PM
Jack

I like discussions with some competing view points.  It is the best way to learn.

As to your desire for projections of when 50% electric will happen I think it is going to be hard to find them yet.  It is too far out still.  But I found one that predicts 35% by 2025.

..•By 2025, 35% of all cars sold will be electric, 25% of which will be hybrids and 10% pure EVs...

http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/02/electric-vehicle-market-forecast-10-year-horizon-looking-strong/ (http://www.triplepundit.com/2012/02/electric-vehicle-market-forecast-10-year-horizon-looking-strong/)

But that is a pretty bullish prediction.  At todays manufacturing rate for cars that would mean 45 million a year by 2025.  I doubt we can get to that number that quick.

Here is another one with more realistic projections.

...Combined worldwide sales of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles will reach 6.6 million annual units by 2020 and become almost 7% of the total light-duty vehicle market, according to Navigant Research’s 2013-2020 Electric Vehicle Market Forecast.

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/electric-vehicles-speeding-toward-7-global-sales-2020/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/electric-vehicles-speeding-toward-7-global-sales-2020/)

One from a thesis paper at MIT in 2009 is pretty interesting and now has historical data to back up its projections.  The low number above is more in line with this paper.

... Even if CO 2 emission
reduction becomes an increased priority at the federal, state and local levels and oil prices
return to $150 per barrel levels, the automotive industry will have to change its product
portfolio from gasoline and hybrid powertrains to BEVs at a very quick rate....

Now of course oil is at $100 per bb l and conversion to electric is not a govt priority and we are 5 years from when that paper was written.

web.mit.edu/sloan-auto-lab/research/.../Cunningham_BS_thesis_2009.pd...

We probably will hit 50% before you and I die but I expect that vehicle production will have fallen off the table to make that happen.  Which of course implies that BAU is in the disintegration process by then and car production will not be a major item of interest any longer.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 09, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
We need to completely rethink personal transportation in the U.S. The average round trip distance for a motorist in the U.S. is 5.95 miles. The automobile industry spends hundreds of millions trying to design an electric car that looks and feels like today's automobile with a range in the 100's of miles between charges. It would make far more sense  to design a vehicle that  would satisfy 90% of all typical rides. These would be most coveted in urban areas where average trip lengths are even shorter than 5.95 miles.


The really crazy thing is that large corporations are already making these vehicles in huge numbers and with minor modifications could create an entirely new category of vehicle which would overwhelm the automobile products currently available. The prices of  these vehicles would match or beat the lowest priced cars on the market.

http://www.cushman.com/ (http://www.cushman.com/)

http://www.cushman.com/commercial/comm_personnel_transport/comm_shuttle6.html (http://www.cushman.com/commercial/comm_personnel_transport/comm_shuttle6.html)

http://www.cushman.com/golf_turf/gt_personnel_transport/gt_shuttle4.html (http://www.cushman.com/golf_turf/gt_personnel_transport/gt_shuttle4.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2014, 06:13:50 PM
The problem for the car companies is how many of their customers will buy a vehicle which can only satisfy 90% of their ride requirements.  You many not drive more than 20 miles at a time for 6 months and then you want to go to Phoenix and need to drive one way a 100 miles.  Even if you only do this 2 times a year and it makes sense to rent those 2 times will you take that option or will you buy a vehicle which can do it all.  I note that most Americans buy vehicles which have capabilities there is almost no chance the people who own them will ever use already.  It requires a sea change in mind set.

Here in AZ it is legal to drive 4 wheelers and ATVs on the road so in Prescott on any given day you have to watch out for them all over the place.  No golf carts yet.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on January 09, 2014, 06:17:56 PM
JimD on Reply #57

Yea - if the conversation is getting stale - liven it up!
( issue a challenge - keep it modest/discrete )

If USA non-ff vehicles hit 50% before we die something extraordinary is going on?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Fears of losing personal "automobile afforded freedom of movement" is something that has us in a bind. 
It's worse than Obama coming to take away guns - just not expressed as such.

Mention of increased fossil-fuel taxes seems most often to result in complaints about raising the price of gasoline.

In some places it's un-American for a family to own less than two vehicles, car/pick-up,,, etc ....
And that is not limited to AGW deniers !

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 09, 2014, 06:38:22 PM
Keep in mind a couple of things:  (1) cars that run on fossil fuels....at some point in the NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE will be cars that lose their value QUICKLY compared to hybrid or all electric vehicles, (2) cost of oil and nat gas is heading much higher, which will push buyers of cars into electric and hybrid cars.

I think that within 5 years that 50% of all car sales will be either hybrid or electric.  Things are going to change much more quickly after people understand the real pickle we are in.


Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2014, 08:40:54 PM
Keep in mind a couple of things:  (1) cars that run on fossil fuels....at some point in the NOT-TOO-DISTANT FUTURE will be cars that lose their value QUICKLY compared to hybrid or all electric vehicles, (2) cost of oil and nat gas is heading much higher, which will push buyers of cars into electric and hybrid cars.

I think that within 5 years that 50% of all car sales will be either hybrid or electric.  Things are going to change much more quickly after people understand the real pickle we are in.

Buddy,

Yet in todays world the price of fuel has been going down or maintaining stability, and the resale value of pure electrics is terrible.  Given the state of oil/gas production and the world's economy it is hard to see the huge change that would be required.  For some time it will make more economic sense for a buyer to buy a high mileage gas or diesel vehicle than an electric for most circumstances here in the US.  Europe will change sooner of course.  In much of the rest of the world it will be slower. 

As to 50% production of hybrid and electric within 5 years in the US that is impossible, unless we switch to a command economy and force it to happen.  And it would be difficult to do even then.  Politics will not allow the command economy here in the US or likely anywhere else.  Do not forget to take into account the massive infrastructure changes required when converting to a different technology.  Globally we are talking about many hundreds of billions or more.  Someone has to pay for it and it just takes a lot of work and time to make the conversion.  And someone's with a LOT of money will lose hugely when that happens and they are not going to be cooperative.   
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 09, 2014, 09:29:14 PM
"As to 50% production of hybrid and electric within 5 years in the US that is impossible."[/b]

Under NORMAL circumstances....I would agree with your assessment.  What I believe (from looking at real data sets, trends, "likely" outcomes, etc.....for temps, ice sheets, weather "events", etc.) is that it will become clear to most (expect for those still receiving stipends from the oil and gas industry)......is that change is needed, and needed "quickly".

There are SEVERAL key items that could happen over the next few years.....that would trigger "quick" action.  (1)  additional melting of the Arctic ice sheet in the next 1 - 3 years, (2)  additional findings that fracking is destroying water supplies (surprise....surprise....poison actually DOES poison water), (3) rising prices of both oil and natural gas over the next 3 years, (4) additional warming of the atmosphere and the accompanying heat waves...especially in prone areas like the western US and Australia, (5) additional record "fire events" especially in Australia and the western US (the western US is a disaster waiting to happen), (6) additional melting of the tundra and increases in methane.

I'm a "numbers guy"....not a "science trained" guy....., but I have certainly done my own substantial reviews of the science research involved, and then paired that with what the actual "numbers" are telling us (ice sheets, snow cover, temperatures, trends, ocean temps, etc), as well as looking at the "temperature" of the public view (public psychology).

I maintain that "most" of the Arctic ice sheet will be melted by the September minimum of 2016 (except for a several hundred mile wide band north of the Canadian Archipelago and Greenland).  As the Arctic CONTINUES to decline.....the drumbeat of "demanding action" will grow extremely loud.....even for the deaf ears of most of the idiots in the US Congress.

I think people are going to be surprised.......   

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on January 09, 2014, 11:42:50 PM
  As the Arctic CONTINUES to decline.....the drumbeat of "demanding action" will grow extremely loud.....even for the deaf ears of most of the idiots in the US Congress.

I admire your spirit but I think you are wrong on this. As long as there is cheap HDTV, beer and McDonalds, the western world won't even notice that the ice is gone. Once we've gotten to where those three things are no longer available, we will be well over the cliff and electronic vehicles will be nothing to the masses as we struggle for survival. I sure hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 09, 2014, 11:49:36 PM
  As the Arctic CONTINUES to decline.....the drumbeat of "demanding action" will grow extremely loud.....even for the deaf ears of most of the idiots in the US Congress.

I admire your spirit but I think you are wrong on this. As long as there is cheap HDTV, beer and McDonalds, the western world won't even notice that the ice is gone. Once we've gotten to where those three things are no longer available, we will be well over the cliff and electronic vehicles will be nothing to the masses as we struggle for survival. I sure hope I'm wrong.

I think you are right and pray that you're not.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2014, 03:18:53 AM
But Buddy,

...There are SEVERAL key items that could happen over the next few years.....that would trigger "quick" action....

Your key items are supposed to happen in the next few years then will cause the societal change required to make that push which would "trigger" quick action.

At that point (given the few years of events to cause the "trigger" you mention) you will have already used up 3 of your 5 years.  Right?

So now you have 2 years left to get to your 50%.

Historically technology changeovers have taken at least a generation.   





Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2014, 11:24:13 AM
Right?...yes

So now you have 2 years left to get to your 50%.....yes

Historically technology changeovers have taken at least a generation. ....yes
=================================================================

Historically.....society has NEVER had to deal with the magnitude of the problem we face today.

It is clear to almost all climate scientists now.  And now....there is no mechanism (such as a carbon dividend).

Also...keep in mind that I am saying 50% of NEW CAR SALES IN THE US (which is FAR.....FAR.....different from 50% of all cars on the road in the US).  It is STILL a HUGE INCREASE from the very small % now sold in the US.  BUT....we haven't see the triggers YET.....

The "key" to ANY "trigger".....will have to be the "obviousness" of warming.  For instance, when I was in Tampa Bay recently.....there was a news report on TV talking about the huge rate increases in property insurance in Florida.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/flood-insurance-price-increases-prompt-owners-to-plan-home-sales.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-24/flood-insurance-price-increases-prompt-owners-to-plan-home-sales.html)

Once people HAVE TO FACE THE MUSIC (which I believe will happen WITHIN 1 - 3 years)....then EVERYTHING CHANGES.  EVERYTHING.


 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2014, 11:58:03 AM
One last thing on this subject:

We haven't yet reached the "tipping point".....or more appropriately the "oh s**t moment" in the US.  That moment when a large chunk of the people who don't WANT to believe that global warming is "real".

Things like flood insurance are NOT GOING TO GET BETTER for folks in Florida.  They are going to get worse.  Same for other areas of the east coast and gulf coast.

And it doesn't need to be just a single "ah ha moment".....it is more likely to be the continuing battering of MANY "ah ha moments":

1) more flooding in Florida and elsewhere
2) more wild fires in the western US (which is DRY...DRY...DRY)
3) more record melting of the Arctic ice sheet
4) more melting of the Greenland ice sheet
5) more heat waves.

The issue of global warming is not going to go away.  That is the nice thing about truth:  It NEVER LEAVES.  It just stays in wait for people to discover it.  "He" is a very persistent little fellow that "truth". 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ccgwebmaster on January 10, 2014, 06:33:01 PM
We haven't yet reached the "tipping point".....or more appropriately the "oh s**t moment" in the US.  That moment when a large chunk of the people who don't WANT to believe that global warming is "real".

Many people make the mistake of somehow thinking that "as soon as people get it we can solve the problem". That isn't the case - there are decades of committed further warming (and changes in the system) even if we stopped adding more carbon dioxide immediately - and there is the major delays associated with trying to change our behaviour and infrastructure for more practical attempts at solutions.

If people get that there are no answers by the time the people who need to change have that fact forced into their faces, I can't see why you expect productive activity to be the result of people finally waking up to reality. It's just as likely to be chaos and the start of major social disruption as panic and fear and anger set in. If you find you have advanced lung cancer - it's a little late to expect to avoid it by stopping smoking?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2014, 07:22:04 PM
<<Many people make the mistake of somehow thinking that "as soon as people get it we can solve the problem". That isn't the case - there are decades of committed further warming (and changes in the system) even if we stopped adding more carbon dioxide immediately - and there is the major delays associated with trying to change our behaviour and infrastructure for more practical attempts at solutions.>>

I understand that CLEARLY.  And I know you understand that....and most of the people on this blog understand that.  BUT.....we can't BEGIN to solve the problem....until enough of the GENERAL PUBLIC AND ENOUGH POLITICIANS believe we HAVE to make a change ASAP.  Have you seen some of the idiots that we have in the US Congress? 

Humans have a tough time with dealing with "future events" if they don't see the problem RIGHT NOW.  In the US...you only have to look at the housing bubble in the US.  It was OBVIOUS to anyone who looked at a NUMBER of various statistics, charts, information, etc.  But people didn't WANT to believe it until "S" hit the fan.

The same thing happened with the banking crisis.  The problems in the banking crisis were baked in several years BEFORE the crisis hit the "oh s**t" level.

 

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2014, 08:03:02 PM
Buddy,

<<Many people make the mistake of somehow thinking that "as soon as people get it we can solve the problem". That isn't the case - there are decades of committed further warming (and changes in the system) even if we stopped adding more carbon dioxide immediately - and there is the major delays associated with trying to change our behaviour and infrastructure for more practical attempts at solutions.>>

I understand that CLEARLY.  And I know you understand that....and most of the people on this blog understand that. ....

The reason we are struggling with your posts here is that your idea, that once this change in public perception you speak of above occurs, is that solving the problem directly follows that gain in public understanding.   This is not the case.  Thus the 3 years to get understanding cannot lead 2 years later to 50% production of electric vehicles in the US as you indicted above would happen.  It is physically impossible.  Once the decision to change is reached then the clock starts on making the change.  When you are talking about massive industrial changovers taking place you must work within the limits of physics and resources.  It just takes a lot of time and a lot of resources and a lot of money.  It is not just retooling 50% of the car factories, it is also building the new power plants required to produce the electricity for the cars, it is building the millions of charging locations needed by the cars, and so on.  That is not to say the percentage of electric cars cannot reach 50% in the US but when that happens is based upon practical considerations. 

Let us not forget if the number one goal relating to cars was to reduce emissions we would not be talking at this time about switching to electric cars.  The current configuration of the US power sector would mean that most electric cars would be using power derived from burning coal and that would result in higher emissions than reworking the ICE vehicles.  The fastest way to reduce car emissions would be to ban all SUV's and pickups from public ownership and institute rigid controls on business ownership and use.  Second would be to toss all the ridiculous car safety regulations and strip a 1000 to 1500 lbs from all the vehicles.  Fuel usage would plummet.

To give you an example on what the safety regulations have done to fuel consumption and raising emissions it is worth noting that a 1984 Honda Civic DX with a standard transmission got up to 63 mpg at 55mph on the Interstate (my carefully calculated figures over thousands of miles).  A technology 30 years old beats a Prius hands down.  Additionally these kinds of changes actually can be implemented very rapidly and would approximately double US fuel mileage.   
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2014, 10:17:55 PM
My "forecast" (on a napkin) is premised on a couple things:

1) First...."weather events" will continue to happen....and become more and more "obvious"
2) Price of BOTH oil and natural gas will rise over coming years (I believe part of that rise will be to a "carbon dividend fee" within a few years).  But even if there ISN'T a carbon fee, I expect natural gas to rise above $6 by the end of this year...and continue rising. Oil continues to rise as well.
3) Just under 100,000 electric and hybrid cars were sold in the US in 2013 which was almost double the number sold in 2012 (84% increase from 2012)
4)  I expect a "doubling" to continue for the next 6 years (I actually expect it to increase towards the back couple of years of that 6 year time period).
5)  Solar growth will continue and INCREASE ITS RATE OF ADOPTION.  Solar as a percentage of the power produced in the US tripled over the last 6 years.........I expect that to continue or increase.  Solar growth of course makes even more sense for people to buy an electric or hybrid vehicle.

Ok...I stretched it to 6 years from 5.  And could this scenario be too "agressive"?  Sure it could.  BUT....humans are REALLY BAD at looking back and extrapolating what HAS BEEN....into the future.  We are NOT very good at LOOKING FORWARD AND UNDERSTANDING HOW DIFFERENT THINGS WILL BE.....

I think most people are underestimating the move towards electric and hybrid vehicles over the coming 5 - 6 years (and the move towards solar and wind power as well).  And as the move towards electric continues....who is going to want to buy a gasoline powered car 5 years from now?  Now....OBVIOUSLY there will be gasoline powered cars sold 5 - 6 years from now......BUT.....as it becomes clear that global warming is becoming more entrenched......the push for solar power, and electric/hybrid vehicles will RAMP AGGRESSIVELY.

If things REALLY start to head south on the environmental front:  (1)  continued record lows in Arctic sea ice, (2) continued record forest fires in the western US, (3) etc.......then you can BET that the US will support incentives to move even more quickly towards solar/wind.

Going to be some VERY INTERESTING TIMES not only from a scientific standpoint over the next 5 years....but also from a societal and governmental standpoint as well.

Things can cut both ways.  There are a LOT of good things that can come from the problems we face.....if we face them quickly enough. 








 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on January 10, 2014, 11:22:03 PM
Buddy:  Reply #72;
If things REALLY start to head south on the environmental front:  (1)  continued record lows in Arctic sea ice, (2) continued record forest fires in the western US, (3) etc.......then you can BET that the US will support incentives to move even more quickly towards solar/wind.
`
I hate to sound like I'm piling on -

unless you have a (1) profit motive (2) with high rate of return,
disappearance of Arctic Sea Ice in the summer will only be a "Newsworthy Event" and not significant enough to get a substantial majority willing to make the necessary changes to slow warming (profit for shippers through the Arctic though)
and
unless the drought in the Western US ends soon forest fires will soon probably be out of fuel or decisions made to let "Nature Take Its Course" (can't burn dirt & rocks): Have to raise taxes a considerable amount to continue as usual - not going to happen.

Drought causing a significant increase in food prices could help more to change the game.

I truly believe production and use of "Non-Fossil-Fuel" powered vehicles will likely increase at an ever increasing rate. 

A substantial majority of population NOT needed to purchase.

25% to 50% of a reasonable minority could make for high numbers and a profitable market.


Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 11, 2014, 05:50:41 AM
<<I hate to sound like I'm piling on - >>

Personally....I don't think ANYONE should worry about "piling on".  Discussion is a healthy thing....and disagreements are a healthy thing as well.  And at the end of the day (well.....5 or 6 years:).....we'll know who is right.  That is not such a terrible thing is it?



Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 17, 2014, 06:18:05 PM
Trouble is coming in Auto Land.

The Next Tire To Drop On The US Economy

Auto sales in the US have been hopping for the last few years, and production has soared, and exuberance along with it, and there were even hopes that sales would soon be where they’d been before the crisis, before the bankruptcies, the plant closures, the job destruction, the bailouts. Through August, it looked like it could happen. August sales hit a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 16.09 million new vehicles (Motor Intelligence), which is close to where sales had been before the crisis.

The auto industry plays an outsized role in the US economy, in manufacturing, services, and retail (accounting for nearly 20% of total retail sales). Booming production and sales have been pushing economic growth when hardly anything else was.
...

...Then AutoNation CEO Mike Jackson poured cold water on it all. He should know. He runs the largest chain of dealerships in the country, an empire of 225 stores that sold 296,419 new retail units in 2013, about 2.24% of total US retail sales. He warned about the out-of-whack inventories.

Dealers were sitting on $100 billion in new vehicles – which automakers had already recognized as sales on their books. Channel stuffing. There were 3.45 million units waiting to be sold....

...Once fleet sales are taken out of the equation so that only retail sales count, inventories suddenly look enormously bloated, with 90 to 120 days’ supply, Jackson pointed out....

...Automakers and dealers are already reacting, Jackson said. Discounts are rising, and automakers have started paying dealers for hitting monthly sales targets. But that won’t be enough. Rebates and other incentives will be next. The chances of an all-out discount war, the kind that tore up automakers before the crisis, are fifty-fifty, he said.

“What I’m saying is you’re on the edge of a slippery slope and even sliding down it a bit,” he said. “It’s a risk.”

Unperturbed, automakers are producing cars like hotcakes. Exuberance leaves no room for a slowdown. And over the next few years, they’re even boosting annual production capacity in North America by over one million vehicles!
...

This situation could lead to big layoffs in the auto industry in 6 months or so and then that ripples through the rest of the economy.  But even if it does not lead to layoffs it will be a negative on the economy.  The vast inventories and all the sales incentives will also have a big impact on sale of hybrids and electric vehicles... and not in a good way.  Discounts and buyers incentives on small fuel efficient ICE vehicles will give them a further advantage in cost per mile over the hybrids and electrics and should depress their sales.  Time will tell of course.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/1/16/the-next-tire-to-drop-on-the-us-economy.html (http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2014/1/16/the-next-tire-to-drop-on-the-us-economy.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 27, 2014, 04:27:04 PM
Here is an interesting piece of data on miles driven by US drivers.  It turns out that there was a systemic mistake in how that has been calculated for many years and that the government figures on total miles driven has been way high. 

Governments at local, state and federal levels have been overestimating the number of miles driven by Americans for years, with very real consequences.

 The estimates have been off by a wide margin for the past seven years, the Washington Post reported. For instance, the U.S. Department of Transportation forecasted Americans would drive 3.3 trillion miles in 2012, which was almost 11 percent higher than what they actually drove.

The article is mostly concerned with revenue allocations but what struck me is that many assumptions about how much slack there was in US miles driven and that we could easily cut a lot of miles re likely overestimating what could be accomplished.  If US drivers are already driving 11% less than we thought it might be more difficult to keep reducing.  A lot of the easy cuts seem to already been made.

http://autos.aol.com/article/u-s-government-overestimates-miles-driven-seven-years/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl28%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D435014 (http://autos.aol.com/article/u-s-government-overestimates-miles-driven-seven-years/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl28%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D435014)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 02, 2014, 02:54:26 PM
The article is mostly concerned with revenue allocations but what struck me is that many assumptions about how much slack there was in US miles driven and that we could easily cut a lot of miles re likely overestimating what could be accomplished.  If US drivers are already driving 11% less than we thought it might be more difficult to keep reducing.  A lot of the easy cuts seem to already been made.

But from another perspective:  Americans often dismiss electric cars because they think the car's range won't get them where they need to go.  However, when they actually record how many miles they drive a day, it is often much less than they think it is.  That's one less barrier to switching from a gasoline-powered car to an EV!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 02, 2014, 03:54:47 PM
Sig

True, another facet of the problem is also that people are programmed to purchase based, among many other things, on the 5 or 10% or 1% use.  An example I have pointed out before is the huge numbers of pickup in the hands of American men.  They are almost a badge of manhood (especially outside of the big cities) but few of these vehicles are needed by their owners.  Some people need them a few times a year and some not at all.  On the occasion you need such a vehicle they can be rented pretty cheaply.  But it is inconceivable to not own one for many.

For many people if they need to drive even 1/20th of the time beyond the electrics range they will not consider one.  To them it is too inconvenient.

And then there is the "coolness" factor.  For most they are geek cars and they would not be caught dead in one.  If a huge number of men are embarrassed to drive a car instead of a pickup or jeep they are not going to buy an electric. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 02, 2014, 05:05:05 PM
Interesting calculation, via @PluginCarsNews:
Car buying choices: 2 acres supports 212 Tesla Model Ss from solar panels or 1 60 mpg car from biodiesel #GoElectric

http://www.abb-conversations.com/2013/11/what-abb-has-taught-me-about-genetic-modification/ (http://www.abb-conversations.com/2013/11/what-abb-has-taught-me-about-genetic-modification/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on February 02, 2014, 08:41:08 PM
For many people if they need to drive even 1/20th of the time beyond the electrics range they will not consider one.  To them it is too inconvenient.

Laziness plays a very big role, even though EV cars can be plugged in while you lie on the couch or in your bed.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on February 02, 2014, 09:31:18 PM
In my experience, a major downside of electric vehicles is that they don't hold a charge very well when it is very cold, even if you don't turn on the heat in the car. This limits their usefulness in climates that get cold.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on February 02, 2014, 09:36:21 PM
It's not always the men that want the big cars. I was facinated by the TD Smart car when I first returned to Canada in 2004. The wife wouldn't have anything to do with it even though she had loved my tiny X19 only a few years earlier.
Now we cruise about in a Dodge Caravan that gets rather poor mileage - but she's happy & I'm content.[size=78%]
Terry[/size]
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 03, 2014, 04:58:19 AM
Terry

As you know from living down here the biggest drivers of the SUV's are women.

But the real problem with cars and trucks is not whether they are ICE or electric.  But just the fact that they exist at all.  There is nothing sustainable about any kind of car and there never will be.  The future world cannot be based upon everyone having personal transportation.  Unless it is a bicycle or a horse I guess.  But cars of any kind have to go.  Electrics are just an attempt to extend BAU a little further.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2014, 02:34:34 PM
In my experience, a major downside of electric vehicles is that they don't hold a charge very well when it is very cold, even if you don't turn on the heat in the car. This limits their usefulness in climates that get cold.
Yet, they are still quite popular in Norway.  "Three of the top ten best-selling vehicles in Norway are electric."
http://www.plugincars.com/norways-abundance-evs-puts-strain-public-charging-and-congestion-perks-129161.html (http://www.plugincars.com/norways-abundance-evs-puts-strain-public-charging-and-congestion-perks-129161.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on February 03, 2014, 03:44:12 PM
I have to assume that the designs have improved a bit since I was driving my Zenn around. I've heard that they figured out that they have to insulate the battery pack much more carefully.

Does anyone have any more recent experience than mine in driving EVs in the cold (below 0 C)?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 01:39:59 AM
Elon Musk interview on his "historic" trip: two Tesla electric cars drove from Los Angeles to New York in 76 hours -- through the Midwest snow.  The gas-powered support vehicle was the one that broke down... :)

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/elon-musk-calls-electric-car-cross-country-journey-important-historical-milestone/ (http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/elon-musk-calls-electric-car-cross-country-journey-important-historical-milestone/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 04, 2014, 01:48:30 AM
I have to assume that the designs have improved a bit since I was driving my Zenn around. I've heard that they figured out that they have to insulate the battery pack much more carefully.

Does anyone have any more recent experience than mine in driving EVs in the cold (below 0 C)?

wili, here's a blog entry by a Wisconsin LEAF owner on winter driving:
http://sam-koblenski.blogspot.com/2013/08/a-year-and-half-with-nissan-leaf-part-3.html (http://sam-koblenski.blogspot.com/2013/08/a-year-and-half-with-nissan-leaf-part-3.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on February 04, 2014, 03:31:20 AM
Thanks, that was interesting. I'm thinking performance may dip a bit lower here in MN where we've recently had lows in the high negative teens. Of course, many ICE cars have troubles at those temps, too. It does sound like the Leaf is a far superior product that the Zenn.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 05, 2014, 02:35:45 PM
And then there is the "coolness" factor.  For most they are geek cars and they would not be caught dead in one.  If a huge number of men are embarrassed to drive a car instead of a pickup or jeep they are not going to buy an electric.
For the 'real men drive trucks' crowd:  Elon Musk says in the video that his Tesla electric version of a Ford F150 pickup truck is about 4 or 5 years off.
http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/05/autos/tesla-consumer-reports/index.html?hpt=hp_t2 (http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/05/autos/tesla-consumer-reports/index.html?hpt=hp_t2)
Nice to see an electric car company developing a good public perception, as shown by the survey.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 05, 2014, 05:02:25 PM
Sig,

But how would an electric F150 help with solving the problem of AGW?  MUsk is very competent at working the angles of competing with GM and Ford but he is not doing anything that will fix AGW.

Elon Musk's primary goal in life seems to be becoming the worlds richest man.   He is a full member of the religion of Technical Progress.  While he fully recognizes that AGW is real he fails to follow the dots.  He somehow comes to the conclusion that electric vehicles can lead to a sustainable civilization.  Civilization is just not sustainable and any form of industrial civilization even less.  Alternative energy technologies are only going to be valuable to the survivors of the collapse but in a very non-complex form.  Until there are massive population declines we will be consuming resources so far above the Earth's carrying Capacity that there is no technology that can do anything but maybe extend the collapse date.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 05, 2014, 06:20:04 PM
JimD @90,
An electric truck helps to get a bigger percent of the population involved in decreasing carbon emissions.  Decreasing carbon emissions helps decrease the worsening of AGW.  Once you get an electric vehicle, you are highly highly inclined to install solar panels... and likely try to get off the grid entirely, thus becoming more sustainable. 

Of course I don't believe that the US will perpetually have multiple cars per household. But an increased infrastructure for electric vehicles encourages development in other, less-dirty alternatives, too.  (Tesla's "free for life" fast chargers are in many cases powered by solar panels.)  Industrial production could shrink significantly when people start changing their habits -- or when personal vehicles simply become too expensive for most to acquire.

As to the population problem, well, Musk is developing the capability to send people to Mars. ;-)   Who's to say that some breakthrough for keeping us alive in space, or on another planet, doesn't result in a technology that could help solve the AGW crisis. I don't believe we should just give up and say there's NO way out.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 05, 2014, 08:26:25 PM
Sig

But that is my point.  There is a way out.  We ignore it and either depend on God or a technical miracle to save us.  Waiting for a miracle is totally irrational and utterly foolish.

It is patently clear that green technologies will not save us.  They might not even extend the timeframe much it at all.  Electric car technology is anything but carbon neutral and in many cases is worse in terms of carbon emissions than burning gasoline.  The problems range from the "real" fuel being coal that generates the electricity to mining expansion due to the need for rare earths for the batteries.

We always need to keep in mind that even if we all lived with the carbon emissions  per capita that is the norm for Africa the 7 going on 9 billion of us would toast the earth.  Cars of any kind are not part of our future unless we have reduced the population to a small fraction of its current number.  Until population reduction becomes the #1 item on the global agenda all we are doing is playing around at what interests us most or makes us feel comfortable.  Divorced from reality we are just rushing towards catastrophe.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 06, 2014, 12:13:01 AM
Cars are not going away any time soon. They are a big part of the problem; therefore they will be a big part of the solution, at least in the short term.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on February 06, 2014, 03:27:28 AM
"they will be a big part of the solution"

Hmmmm, only to the extent that there use is mostly reduced.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2014, 08:16:02 PM
New study evaluates factors including raw materials, assembly, transportation, consumer use, end-of-life recovery, and other issues including the carmaker's human-rights record to determine which new vehicle sold today has the lowest overall carbon footprint over its lifetime.

(Winner: the Nissan LEAF battery-electric car.)

http://autos.yahoo.com/news/2014-nissan-leaf-lowest-lifetime-carbon-footprint-report-124009536.html (http://autos.yahoo.com/news/2014-nissan-leaf-lowest-lifetime-carbon-footprint-report-124009536.html)

Until we can (eliminate?) cars, knowing their carbon footprint can help consumers choose more responsibly.  Perhaps it will encourage some people to do without.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2014, 08:21:49 PM
And on trucks:
"President Obama is announcing plans on Tuesday for improved fuel-efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which comprise four percent of registered vehicles but are responsible for nearly a quarter of fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. In 2011, the transportation sector accounted for around 28 percent of the countries’ greenhouse gases (GHGs) — only the electricity sector produces more."

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/18/3300031/obama-fuel-standards-trucks/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/18/3300031/obama-fuel-standards-trucks/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2014, 08:31:17 PM
Couldn't resist.   Why there will always be a need for cars....   :P

http://www.carscoops.com/2014/02/nasa-puts-together-gif-of-curiosity.html (http://www.carscoops.com/2014/02/nasa-puts-together-gif-of-curiosity.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 18, 2014, 08:51:54 PM
And on trucks:
"President Obama is announcing plans on Tuesday for improved fuel-efficiency standards for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, which comprise four percent of registered vehicles but are responsible for nearly a quarter of fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation sector. In 2011, the transportation sector accounted for around 28 percent of the countries’ greenhouse gases (GHGs) — only the electricity sector produces more."

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/18/3300031/obama-fuel-standards-trucks/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/02/18/3300031/obama-fuel-standards-trucks/)

Sig

As it happens my bro runs a small over the road trucking company (I'm one of only a few neighborhood boys who left the blue collar world behind - not counting the years I owned and ran the farm).  I will ask him what he thinks and knows about that program.

I know from conversations with him that we could save a huge amount of fuel by outlawing the big trucks from exceeding 60mph.  That's what he drives and he makes a lot more mpg than other trucks just like his.  Common sense.  Governed engines and cruise control and computer monitoring.

Another thing one sees talked about are the aerodynamic skirts attached to the side of the trailers.  In optimum conditions they were said to increase fuel efficiency by 9% but he says in actual road use it is more like 4%.  But it still helps of course.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ccgwebmaster on February 19, 2014, 01:37:40 AM
Another thing one sees talked about are the aerodynamic skirts attached to the side of the trailers.  In optimum conditions they were said to increase fuel efficiency by 9% but he says in actual road use it is more like 4%.  But it still helps of course.

More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 19, 2014, 04:14:25 AM
More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...
If railroads can build a system where the first to load is the first to unload this wouldn't even mess up any competion. This though would mean, i think, they'd had to use a special 'unloading' railroad carts behind the locomotive if the whole truck is being transported. More efficient would of course be to move just the stuff needing transport but this would mean the small amounts of stuff would need separate smaller containers and some equipment to move them at every passing siding and station, almost.

Reducing car driving speeds also saves some fuel for air-resistance in most cases, but proposing this is close to heresy at least in here. The regenerative breaking systems in electrified cars is one great source of their efficiency.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on February 19, 2014, 01:42:36 PM
More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...
If railroads can build a system where the first to load is the first to unload this wouldn't even mess up any competion. This though would mean, i think, they'd had to use a special 'unloading' railroad carts behind the locomotive if the whole truck is being transported. More efficient would of course be to move just the stuff needing transport but this would mean the small amounts of stuff would need separate smaller containers and some equipment to move them at every passing siding and station, almost.

Reducing car driving speeds also saves some fuel for air-resistance in most cases, but proposing this is close to heresy at least in here. The regenerative breaking systems in electrified cars is one great source of their efficiency.

Pmt111500,
Maybe some real interest is being applied to your beliefs.

Railroad replacing Truck Carriers
http://www.port-of-charleston.com/Cargo/ReadytoGrow/sc_inland_port.asp (http://www.port-of-charleston.com/Cargo/ReadytoGrow/sc_inland_port.asp)

Buses, innovation from Germany and Korea (reducing battery size and weight)
http://www.zeitnews.org/applied-sciences/transportation/wireless-charging-electric-buses-be-put-real-world-test-germany (http://www.zeitnews.org/applied-sciences/transportation/wireless-charging-electric-buses-be-put-real-world-test-germany)
and
http://www.embarq.org/en/node/6018 (http://www.embarq.org/en/node/6018)

is being tested in the USA
http://timesfreepress.com/news/2011/nov/18/cartas-electric-buses-charge-go/?local (http://timesfreepress.com/news/2011/nov/18/cartas-electric-buses-charge-go/?local)

Some claims are being made elsewhere, that in pavement wireless charging of EV batteries is an ideal for renewable's because of high day time use of public buses to virtually none at night.
Passenger cars (personal vehicles) - needs more exploration.

Something of interest for me to follow.  Also, we have an electric bus manufacturer near me.
http://www.proterra.com/ (http://www.proterra.com/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 19, 2014, 04:59:28 PM
Another thing one sees talked about are the aerodynamic skirts attached to the side of the trailers.  In optimum conditions they were said to increase fuel efficiency by 9% but he says in actual road use it is more like 4%.  But it still helps of course.

More use of rail transport for freight would help even more though...

One of the big issues for rail in the US is that while the US once had by far the worlds best rail network most of the track and right of ways are long gone.  To rebuild the system we need would be a gargantuan project and require huge amounts of time, resources and wealth.  All in short supply.

In 1926 the US had 300,000 miles of track.  Today there is only 140,000 miles of track. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ccgwebmaster on February 19, 2014, 07:23:14 PM
One of the big issues for rail in the US is that while the US once had by far the worlds best rail network most of the track and right of ways are long gone.  To rebuild the system we need would be a gargantuan project and require huge amounts of time, resources and wealth.  All in short supply.

The longer one leaves common sense and effective solutions, the larger the necessary effort and the lower the probability of them actually happening becomes.

That of course is why we are now at the present pass where the collapse of civilisation and all the attendant woes are almost certainly inevitable.

It is also why the optimists who will continue to think some technological marvel or sudden application of common sense will save us at the last minute are likely wrong. Since before my time such common sense answers and thoughts and technologies (some neglected by accident of history or pressure from vested interests) have been available, yet not used.

Even if one predicates hope upon a sudden social transformation, a new revolutionary ideology sweeping through the global population - the longer that elapses without any signs of this, and the further away from the right steps we move - the less likely it becomes as a source of hope.

In that way to keep the trucks running but a little bit more efficiently (instead of building back the railways and removing most of the trucks) is arguably a little increment nearer to the grave, not really a step towards hope. It's part of the thinking that argues for prolonging what we have right now at any cost and later be damned.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on February 19, 2014, 10:40:09 PM
Re: first to load first to unload TEU

already everywhere innit ? doesn't everyone with a rail siding and any amount of traffic already have
overhead lift with teu grabber that unloads any specific railcar flatbed in a consist (usually at least 2 TEU stacked if the route will allow, on trailer which then is hauled away by opportunistic tractor +flatbed, arranged thru load broker ?  at worst it will have to do one extra unload of the upper TEU in a two TEU stack.  I hardly see any tractors being transported these days, sometimes trailers, but more and more just TEUs.

sidd
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JackTaylor on February 20, 2014, 04:45:54 PM
Re: first to load first to unload TEU
already everywhere innit ? doesn't everyone with a rail siding and any amount of traffic already have overhead lift with teu grabber that unloads any specific railcar flatbed in a consist (usually at least 2 TEU stacked if the route will allow, on trailer which then is hauled away by opportunistic tractor +flatbed, arranged thru load broker ?  at worst it will have to do one extra unload of the upper TEU in a two TEU stack.  I hardly see any tractors being transported these days, sometimes trailers, but more and more just TEUs.

sidd
sidd,
Things I see rolling down the railroad track show full agreement with your comment.

One thing I wish to add seems to be a reduction in "box-cars" overwhelmingly it is TEUs.

Off comment:
Still see some open top coal carriers, exclusively in a train make-up, but understand the numbers are dropping.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on March 04, 2014, 06:45:04 PM
Interesting car info.  US sales figures for the winter season.

Severe cold weather across much of the country stalled new-vehicle sales in February, even as sales of some trucks and sport utility vehicles remained strong, automakers reported on Monday.

Overall sales were flat for the month, according to figures from Autodata Corporation. Automakers sold 1.2 million vehicles in February, the same as February last year, for an annualized rate of 15.34 million and below the 16 million vehicles the industry expects to sell this year.

Sales well below expectations overall but strong for big vehicles which handle snow and ice well.  The effects of a nasty winter.

The Chrysler Group said its sales rose 11 percent, to 154,866 units, for its best February performance in seven years, in part on the strength of its Jeep brand, which gained 47 percent for the month. The new Jeep Cherokee midsize sport utility vehicle posted its second-best monthly performance since arriving in dealerships last October.

Chrysler also fared best in the pickup truck segment, reporting an increase of 26 percent for its Ram pickup. Ford said sales of its F-Series, the country’s best-selling vehicle, advanced 2.6 percent to 55,882 units, its best February in eight years.

Expensive cars are seeing strong sales.

Meanwhile, the automaker’s sales mix is shifting toward more feature-laden vehicles starting at $40,000, said James Cain, a G.M. spokesman.

Toyota and Volkswagen said they were hit hard by the winter weather and February’s short sales month.

Toyota’s sales declined 4.3 percent for the month. The Toyota division fell 5.8 percent, to 140,429 vehicles sold, but its luxury Lexus brand increased by 8.7 percent, to 18,855.

Electric vehicle sales are mixed.

Sales of its all-electric Leaf car also more than doubled for the month, compared with the Chevrolet Volt, which fell more than 25 percent.

All in all.  More of the same.  Just dialing in more infrastructure of the wrong kind.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/business/carmakers-say-sales-were-sluggish-in-chilly-february.html?ref=business&_r=0 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/business/carmakers-say-sales-were-sluggish-in-chilly-february.html?ref=business&_r=0)

More on the electric car sales issue.  Not pretty.  Very low numbers, less than 4,000 for Feb out of 1.2 million total.

Analysts worried that winter weather would put a crimp in U.S. new-car sales last month, but one electric car racked up record February sales: the Nissan Leaf.

Leaf sales of 1,425 cars in February were a record for the month, more than double the 2013 total of 653 February sales (the numbers for 2012 and 2011 were 478 and 67, respectively).

Sales of the Chevrolet Volt, the range-extended electric car that's the other high-volume, mass-priced plug-in car on the market, came in at 1,210--higher than January's 918, but down one-third from the 1,626 sold in February 2013.

Volt sales appear to be stagnating, with slightly fewer sold in 2013 than 2012, and very little marketing for the car from parent company General Motors....

...The third best-selling electric car is the Tesla Model S, whose maker refuses to report monthly sales. A conservative monthly figure for U.S. sales might be 1,000 or 1,200 units.

Is GM losing interest?

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1090645_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-feb-leaf-record (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1090645_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-feb-leaf-record)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on March 12, 2014, 02:38:12 PM
It looks like the car industry is using their political power to hamper Tesla's sales.  Pretty hardcore.  Not sure why they are doing this as Tesla's sales are not significant in a business sense.

New Jersey Becomes Third State To Ban Tesla’s Direct Sales Model

Today the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission passed a rule that will end Tesla’s direct sales of cars to consumers. Tesla, a manufacturer of all-electric cars, does not lean on dealerships to sell its vehicles as other car companies do.

The rule goes into effect in April.

New Jersey is the third state to ban the practice of selling cars directly to consumers, joining Arizona and Texas in preventing their residents from easily buying a more environmentally friendly ride. The New Jersey Coalition of Automotive Retailers was in favor of the rule change, unsurprisingly.

Guess they are trying to force them to create dealerships.  I wonder where they take them to get service if there are no dealerships.  Sure can't help sales.

http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/11/new-jersey-becomes-third-state-to-ban-teslas-direct-sales-model/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl27%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D452911 (http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/11/new-jersey-becomes-third-state-to-ban-teslas-direct-sales-model/?icid=maing-grid7%7Cmain5%7Cdl27%7Csec1_lnk2%26pLid%3D452911)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on March 22, 2014, 03:12:54 PM
My bro runs a small trucking company.  I have been telling him we are going to replace him with a robot pretty soon.  He scoffs.  Robots!  We don't need no stinking people!

In the wake of new U.S. Department of Transportation guidelines for automated-vehicle testing, experts such as Ümit Özguner, a professor with Ohio State University’s Center for Automotive Research, are predicting that the first wave of operational autonomous vehicles will be devoted to long-haul deliveries. This is about moving cargo, not people.

“The trucking industry is very interested in going from single trucks to convoys of trucks. One human driver with perhaps three other trucks behind it,” Özguner told TechHive. “Those three wouldn’t necessarily have a driver in them. Eventually you could imagine removing the first driver too.”
..In late May, the U.S. Department of Transportation opened the door for road-testing self-driving trucks by publishing policies for the three states that currently allow driverless vehicles: California, Nevada, and Florida. These guidelines open the door for driverless tests of all kinds. Overseas, meanwhile, experiments with driverless truck convoys—also known as “platoons”—have been under way for years.

http://www.techhive.com/article/2046262/the-first-driverless-cars-will-actually-be-a-bunch-of-trucks.html (http://www.techhive.com/article/2046262/the-first-driverless-cars-will-actually-be-a-bunch-of-trucks.html)

Driverless trucks get in shape for US Army convoy duty

Recent tests, says Lockheed Martin, show that fully autonomous convoys can safely navigate road intersections, oncoming traffic, stalled and passing vehicles, and pedestrians.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57618149-76/driverless-trucks-get-in-shape-for-us-army-convoy-duty/ (http://news.cnet.com/8301-11386_3-57618149-76/driverless-trucks-get-in-shape-for-us-army-convoy-duty/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on April 09, 2014, 06:25:14 PM
Cars Become Biggest Driver of Greenhouse-Gas Increases

Emissions from transportation may rise at the fastest rate of all major sources through 2050, the United Nations will say in a report due April 13. Heat-trapping gases from vehicles may surge 71 percent from 2010 levels, mainly from emerging economies, according to a leaked draft of the most comprehensive UN study to date on the causes of climate change.

Rising incomes in nations like China, India and Brazil have produced explosive demand for cars and for consumer goods that must be delivered by highway, rail, ship or air. The new pollution, measured in millions of tons of greenhouse gases, may exceed all of the savings achieved through initiatives like subsidies for public transport and fuel efficiency. .....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/cars-become-biggest-driver-of-greenhouse-gas-increases.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/cars-become-biggest-driver-of-greenhouse-gas-increases.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 01, 2014, 02:22:40 PM
A potential aid to the renewable energy/storage problem:  electric vehicles that supply power to the grid when needed, as well as charge from it.  This Delaware project makes money for that service.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicles-begin-to-earn-money-from-the-grid.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/business/energy-environment/electric-vehicles-begin-to-earn-money-from-the-grid.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 01, 2014, 08:37:37 PM
2013 end of year electric vehicle sales numbers

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089443_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-2013-almost-double-last-years (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1089443_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-2013-almost-double-last-years)

Now to some interesting stuff.  Predictions.  Here are two. One from Forbes who caters to business readers and one from CleanTechnica which caters to those focused on the green and renewable energy issues.  The great thing about these two reports is the they base their articles on EXACTLY THE SAME INDUSTRY RESEARCH REPORT!  Go figure.  Which is biased?

Note that the below prediction would be about 4% of total sales.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2013/01/03/worldwide-electric-vehicle-sales-to-reach-3-8-million-annually-by-2020/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2013/01/03/worldwide-electric-vehicle-sales-to-reach-3-8-million-annually-by-2020/)

The below prediction is for almost double the previous one from Forbes and predicts 7% of global sales on 6.6 million production.  Very aggressive prediction and I note that their chart shows a straight line increase over time - unusual.

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/electric-vehicles-speeding-toward-7-global-sales-2020/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2013/09/30/electric-vehicles-speeding-toward-7-global-sales-2020/)

The research report.

http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-market-forecasts (http://www.navigantresearch.com/research/electric-vehicle-market-forecasts)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on May 01, 2014, 11:02:12 PM
It looks like the car industry is using their political power to hamper Tesla's sales.  Pretty hardcore.  Not sure why they are doing this as Tesla's sales are not significant in a business sense.

New Jersey Becomes Third State To Ban Tesla’s Direct Sales Model

Today the New Jersey Motor Vehicle Commission passed a rule that will end Tesla’s direct sales of cars to consumers. Tesla, a manufacturer of all-electric cars, does not lean on dealerships to sell its vehicles as other car companies do.
...
Guess they are trying to force them to create dealerships.  I wonder where they take them to get service if there are no dealerships.  Sure can't help sales.

The dealers aren't so worried about Tesla sales.  They are more concerned that other manufacturers might go the same route and cut out the middle man.

Tesla has service centers scattered about and will, if you are out of the service area, send a technician to your house, work etc to perform any work necessary.  While sales might be higher with more service centers, Tesla is production constrained, not demand constrained.  So at this point, it isn't hurting the bottom line.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 03, 2014, 01:31:10 AM
2013 end of year electric vehicle sales numbers
...
Now to some interesting stuff.  Predictions.  Here are two. One from Forbes who caters to business readers and one from CleanTechnica which caters to those focused on the green and renewable energy issues.  The great thing about these two reports is the they base their articles on EXACTLY THE SAME INDUSTRY RESEARCH REPORT!  Go figure.  Which is biased?
...

Three different types of electric vehicles (EVs) fall under Navigant’s forecast:
> hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), those that generate all their own electric energy;
> plug-in electric vehicles (PHEVs), those that use electricity from the grid and gasoline;
> and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), those that only use electricity from the grid.

Judging by this graph from the report, it seems Forbes made a boo-boo.  Looks like the 6.6m number includes all three types, whereas the 3.8m includes only HEVs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 03, 2014, 04:01:43 AM
Sig

That is what I thought at first, but if one reads the Forbes article they say their numbers include both plug-ins and HEV's.  Since I can't read the report I guess it is something else.  But I find the different numbers on the same report from two ideologically different sources interesting.

We see that a lot.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on May 03, 2014, 07:14:22 PM
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.  (A nuclear equivalent of this would be the National Ignition Facility which was billed as a fusion energy research platform but was really a bomb project)

2.  The Navigant study severely understates the Electric Vehicle future sales.  This is because they rely on the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Administration's projection of gasoline prices.

These prices are severely understated.  What most people don't realize is that the "fracking revolution" isn't about natural gas AT ALL, it is about oil.

The value of oil sold from the shale fields is worth about 4 times as much as the value of natural gas sold from those wells.  Plus, the rate of drop off in production for those wells makes them "crash".  So they need to continually drill more wells to maintain production.  Once the oil is gone, the natural gas is no longer profitable to produce and they close up the well.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww3.picturepush.com%2Fphoto%2Fa%2F14012521%2Fimg%2Fbakken-shale%2FTypical-Bakken-Shale-Oil-Production-Curve.png&hash=67f6a160c1da6c9aa8fc6e9b51c709d3)

In addition, the Navigant study does not project the implementation of a carbon tax.  The implementation of this tax, coupled with future oil price increases will make electric cars much more viable.

3.  The Department of Energy is putting significant effort into the development of solar roadways.  They have a working prototype and the cost of asphalt has gone up so much now that the new solar roadway,   Video Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep4L18zOEYI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep4L18zOEYI) coupled with wireless charging infrastructure placed under these solar roadways will allow electric vehicles to charge while driving and prevent the 10% line losses   http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars)  will make electric vehicles the primary mode of transportation.  Note: this technology also works for public transportation as well.

4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf) (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45)  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 03, 2014, 11:13:11 PM
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.   
[snip]
4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf) (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45)  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years.

Great post!  Only a couple of quibbles.  The "hydrogen economy" probably is impossible with conventional technology.  However, graphene could revolutionize that assessment.  It absorbs hydrogen onto its surface with unparalleled capacity:
http://jss.ecsdl.org/content/2/10/M3160.full (http://jss.ecsdl.org/content/2/10/M3160.full)
Not stated there is the finding that it is simultaneously impenetrable to hydrogen.  Surfaces coated with graphene simply don't leak hydrogen, as ordinary materials do.  Copper and nickel are among the easiest substrates on which to deposit graphene layers.  Pipelines and storage tanks thus shouldn't be that difficult to mass-produce, eventually.
Furthermore, solar energy can be efficiently used to generate hydrogen.
But we're easily years away from commercial application of these technologies.

I'm further skeptical of your rosy assessment of the fall in CO2 levels if human emissions cease.  But I'm not enough of an expert in the carbon cycle to quantify my skepticism.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on May 04, 2014, 12:00:23 AM
Interesting paper on Graphene, took a looksee but it pretty much showed only theoretical structures.  This is, in my mind, an equivalent to a paper on tokomak nuclear fusion.  Theoretically and experimentally possible but not practical or really useful (yet).  However, most of the leakage I am talking about comes from fittings and valves.  Hydrogen is very crafty stuff!

The atmospheric fraction info can be accessed by the links above but more on it can be found here:

http://skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=112&p=2 (http://skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=112&p=2)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.skepticalscience.com%2Fimages%2FCO2_Emissions_Levels_Knorr.gif&hash=c9e54998b4f1da1b136a3f3552ae7f17)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 04, 2014, 03:49:33 AM
jai

 
Clearing the Air

1.  Hydrogen Cars are a myth started by the oil industry.  While the power density looks favorable, leakage and corrosion issues make fueling infrastructure impossible.  In addition, the majority of the modeled production of hydrogen comes as a byproduct of oil refinement.  It is a backdoor oil policy dressed up as green.  (A nuclear equivalent of this would be the National Ignition Facility which was billed as a fusion energy research platform but was really a bomb project)

2.  The Navigant study severely understates the Electric Vehicle future sales.  This is because they rely on the Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Administration's projection of gasoline prices.

These prices are severely understated.  What most people don't realize is that the "fracking revolution" isn't about natural gas AT ALL, it is about oil.

The value of oil sold from the shale fields is worth about 4 times as much as the value of natural gas sold from those wells.  Plus, the rate of drop off in production for those wells makes them "crash".  So they need to continually drill more wells to maintain production.  Once the oil is gone, the natural gas is no longer profitable to produce and they close up the well.

As written item 2 contains some errors.  There are a lot of ways to couch an argument about the EIA or IEA mis-projecting future gasoline prices.  And one can do that by describing issues about oil production from fracking operations in the Bakken and elsewhere.  But not the way it was done above.  Natural gas production has almost nothing to do with trying to figure out future gasoline pricing.  This is since crude oil and natural gas are not used in the same way and are not fungible.

The Bakken information you quote is indeed accurate for that field, but the Bakken is, as you point out, primarily an oil field from which the production companies generate extra income by capturing most of the natural gas naturally found in that reservoir.  Any information about the declines in the Bakken resulting in lower natural gas production when the wells are shut down due to low oil production apply to their effect on natural gas prices not gasoline prices.  The surge in US oil production from the oil shales is indeed oversold and will be difficult to maintain for very many years.  This is hidden from the general public by a wave of propaganda put forth by the oil industry and various political entities.  I agree with you that the rapid well depletion profiles indicate trouble coming and also the typical fact that the oil companies always drill the most productive areas first.  Depletion rates are going to get worse, not better, and this will eventually put upward pressure on gasoline prices.  In response the oil industry intends to work these kind of formations for all they are worth of course, get Congress to allow off-shore drilling along the continental coasts, open up the wildlife refuge in Alaska to drilling, and vastly increase tar sands production in Canada.  Some of this will happen and some will not.  Not knowing which or when makes it very difficult to predict future gasoline prices.  Not to mention the impact that the future state of the global financial system has on gasoline demand being a factor.  Almost no one has a long -term good track record on predicting gasoline prices.  Caution is in order.

In addition, the Navigant study does not project the implementation of a carbon tax.  The implementation of this tax, coupled with future oil price increases will make electric cars much more viable.

It is only an opinion that carbon taxes will be implemented and doing so is country dependent.  I suspect that it will be quite some time  before any such tax is implemented in the US for instance.  If ever.  And it will not be a certain occurrence in many other locations either.  If both the rise in gasoline prices occurs and the carbon taxes are implemented globally then your statement would likely be true.  But there is no certainty here at all.

3.  The Department of Energy is putting significant effort into the development of solar roadways.  They have a working prototype and the cost of asphalt has gone up so much now that the new solar roadway,   Video Here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep4L18zOEYI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ep4L18zOEYI) coupled with wireless charging infrastructure placed under these solar roadways will allow electric vehicles to charge while driving and prevent the 10% line losses   http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars (http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9247958/TDK_moves_quickly_to_commercialize_wireless_charging_for_electric_cars)  will make electric vehicles the primary mode of transportation.  Note: this technology also works for public transportation as well.

Do you actually think this is likely to occur?  On a wide scale?  Think of the costs and implementation issues.   How many years from now would this idea even be a possibility?  I watched your video and read your link and looked up a few others.  This is very leading edge research and is completely impractical to even consider until a host of engineering problems are solved.  The wiki page  clearly states that this technology would require we strip all the roads and that installation would be much more expensive than asphalt roads.  As they stated there are 25,000 sq miles of roads in the US.  This type of technology is far too impractical to be a viable candidate to making a big difference.  What happens when it is covered in ice and snow or when a snowplow runs over it?  How long will they last under the wear of heavy vehicles?  What one thinks of this is just opinion and my opinion of it is we will never see it deployed on a significant scale.  But it may teach us something and eventually be used somewhere on a limited scale.  Maybe the decks of aircraft carriers?

4.  If we globally reduce our per capita emissions to 1 tonne per person per year the Anthropogenic emissions would be 7.2 Gigatonnes per year.   Globally, the earth naturally removes 55% of the human-caused CO2 from the atmosphere each year. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/co2conference/posters_pdf/jones1_poster.pdf) (this is equal to 17.6 Gigatonnes going mostly into the oceans each year)   A reduction in global emission from the current 32 Gigatonnes per year to 7.2 Gigatonnes per year would mean that the earth would naturally sequester approximately 10 Gigatonnes of CO2 from the current atmospheric abundance.

Since it takes 7.81 Gigatonnes for 1 part per million volume in the atmosphere http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45 (http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?r=45)  This would mean that the atmospheric abundance of CO2 would go down by 1.2 ppmv per year.

Well 7.2 Gtonnes if it was done today.  Population projections for 2050 would result in 9.6 Gtonnes or so by then.  But one must take into account that a number as low 1 tonne each is pretty fantastical given human desires to maintain civilization as we know it.  Per capita emissions are approximately 5 tonnes now.    BTW emissions are actually about 36 Gtonnes per year now not 32.  There is no near term prospect for significantly changing that number.  Especially since global emissions are growing both on a total basis as well as a per capita basis the last few years - 2% last year.  And we need to keep in mind that the are indications that the ocean will not be taking in as much in the future as it is now and positive feedbacks of things like methane releases will be growing and not controllable in any meaningful way.  We do not get to 1 tonne per capita with any thing resembling modern civilization in my opinion.   YMMV but figuring out how to get to that place is damned hard.

5.  These ideas assume a free-market response instead of a command economy response.  In wartime, the command economy response is the only solution.  We are soon approaching a "war on warming".  As people understand that their children will de if we don't then they will rally for these kind of changes.  A command economy approach in 10 years will transform our transportation sector and reduce oil consumption by 90% in 5 years.

I beg to differ on your numbers.  Provide some explanation of the mechanism which gets us to a global command economy ten years from now.  The probability of that seems so minute that I count it as totally unrealistic.  I won't even ask about the 90% reduction in only 5 years of effort. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on May 04, 2014, 05:49:40 AM
This is another good read on the bakken oil collapse coming.

Another reason that future prices are understated is that the global oil depletion of traditional resources is still occurring but because of the bubble economy of the fracking revolution in America, almost 90% of all new global oil production capacity has taken place in the U.S.  Therefore the global demand has risen due to this bubble and when the fracking collapse happens in 10-15 years there will be a severe under supply.

Here is the article.  http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/12/shale-oil-might-be-less-awesome-we-think (http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/12/shale-oil-might-be-less-awesome-we-think)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slate.com%2Fcontent%2Fdam%2Fslate%2Farticles%2Fhealth_and_science%2Fscience%2F2013%2F01%2F130206_SCI_OilGraph03.jpg.CROP.article568-large.jpg&hash=6e6dc4bdb3033d82d5f9a62efa6c9c95)

I agree that the solar roadways are very speculative.  However, there are significant advantages such as heating which allows for significantly less ice and snow accumulation.  The precept for the idea is that cost per paved mile of roadway has increased by a significant amount in the last 5 years (the video says tenfold but I am not sure If that is true)   In this case, the new roadway, while being 3 times more expensive would produce energy for sale and have significant savings associated with it.  Glass is a very durable element if made correctly, it is much more resilient than concrete.  However, I agree it is a technology that will need to be developed by the government, using billions of dollars of material investment and then implemented in a national work-relief infrastructure transformation program.

With regard to the command economy.  I model the U.S. working independently from the global market and implementing a WWII style mobilization.  This changes the global economy.  When the U.S. implements a carbon trade tariff on imports and renews the domestic manufacturing of infrastructure, in a command economy environment, it will force other nations to decarbonize. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 04, 2014, 03:24:53 PM
The gas which is co-produced with shale oil from the Bakken shale field is so cheap that much of it is flared off rather than captured. Here is a photo from space.

No, that bright spot in North Dakota is not a new city rivaling Chicago but gas flares seen from space.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 06, 2014, 08:17:32 PM
IEA has released its "Global EV Outlook."
By helping to diversify the fuel mix, EVs reduce dependence on petroleum and tap into a source of electricity that is often domestic and relatively inexpensive. Just as important, EVs have the potential to unlock innovation and create new advanced industries that spur job growth and enhance economic prosperity.

In the long-term, EVs are important to countries seeking to decarbonise the transport sector. Figure 1 illustrates the key role of transport CO2 reductions in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “2DS” scenario (2°C Scenario), which describes a future energy system that would limit average global temperature increases to 2°C by 2050. In this scenario, the transport sector’s potential share of overall CO2 reductions would be 21% by 2050. In order to meet this share, three-fourths of all vehicle sales by 2050 would need to be plug-in electric of some type.
http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,37024,en.html (http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/name,37024,en.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Anne on May 12, 2014, 05:39:15 PM
The UK progressive think tank, the Institute for Public Policy Research, proposes that wealthier drivers should pay more to use the roads. They look at examples from Oregon, Stockholm and Milan.

The policy document is here:
http://www.ippr.org/publications/the-long-road-to-ruin-why-the-uk-needs-to-reform-motoring-taxes (http://www.ippr.org/publications/the-long-road-to-ruin-why-the-uk-needs-to-reform-motoring-taxes)

The Daily Mail is, predictably, up in arms.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: icefest on May 13, 2014, 12:10:13 AM
Interesting article Anne, 

That brings up the point that for years a large part of road taxes in many countries has been done via fuel taxes/excises with people who drive more and use more fuel paying more taxes - relatively fair..

I wonder how road taxes will be collected once there are a significant amount of electric cars with distributed charging on the roads.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Anne on May 13, 2014, 01:13:17 AM
Sorry, icefest, I gave the link to the summary, not the full report, which is here:
http://www.ippr.org/assets/media/publications/pdf/The-long-road-to-ruin_May2014.pdf (http://www.ippr.org/assets/media/publications/pdf/The-long-road-to-ruin_May2014.pdf)

The main reason for the suggested reform is the projected decline in revenue from fuel duty as cars become more fuel-efficient. Additional reasons given are social justice and health and environmental.

They suggest abolishing vehicle excise duty, reducing tax on fuel and introducing road pricing. They suggest using electronic tracking, including the controversial eCall technology, which could make short journeys or journeys at busy times relatively expensive. And possibly make richer people pay more.
Theoretically a replacement motoring tax in the UK  could be progressive by linking information on vehicle ownership held by the DVLA to information on income held by HMRC.
The paper also discusses the best way of selling the idea to the electorate: it will be a brave government that takes this on.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: icefest on May 13, 2014, 04:49:07 AM
I don't have time right now to read the full report, but this might interest you Anne: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/drivers-may-pay-per-kilometre-20140312-34n3e.html (http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/drivers-may-pay-per-kilometre-20140312-34n3e.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 14, 2014, 03:25:43 AM
Hilarious cartoon review of the Tesla Model S electric car, by an owner.  You're welcome. ;D

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s (http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on May 14, 2014, 06:11:49 PM
Hilarious cartoon review of the Tesla Model S electric car, by an owner.  You're welcome. ;D

http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s (http://theoatmeal.com/comics/tesla_model_s)

Excellent! I am also now a fan of the mantis shrimp...  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 15, 2014, 08:38:46 PM
In Asia, the venerable (and dirty) "tuk-tuk" is being replaced by an electric trike.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/13/world/asia/japan-electric-tricycles/index.html (http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/13/world/asia/japan-electric-tricycles/index.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on May 18, 2014, 11:34:35 PM
Gas and diesel cars use more electricity than EVs?

http://youtu.be/BQpX-9OyEr4 (http://youtu.be/BQpX-9OyEr4)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 19, 2014, 02:18:11 AM
ghoti

Interesting.  I would note that a properly performed EROEI calculation takes that energy into account.

It takes electricity to make fossil fuels and it takes fossil fuels to make electricity (and to make most of the renewable power generation equipment too).  It is a dilemma. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on May 19, 2014, 03:42:44 AM
Key words there  are "properly performed".

I'd suggest this can't be said of the vast majority of coverage of costs and risks of anything we use. Since society tends to favour the status quo we generally under estimate the costs and risks of current (old, established) technology and over estimate the costs and risks of the new (maybe better, maybe not).

As a result we get silly beliefs becoming memes - like wind turbines as bird killers and solar PV as heavy water users and both as grid killers. But somehow gas, diesel, coal are better for everything. You can be sure the reports that claim EVs use as much carbon and ICE vehicle didn't include 100% coal generated electricity used in the gas production but somehow claims huge amounts of carbon used in the battery production. They certainly didn't include lithium mined and refined in Quebec using 100% hydro electricity.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 19, 2014, 05:12:38 PM
One thing that is certain.  The ardent advocates of both sides of the energy issue are both guilty of ignoring unpleasant facts.

This is one of my main points.  Looked at from the outside it seems pretty clear that neither approach is workable in terms of solving AGW or even dealing substantially with it.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 27, 2014, 04:15:30 PM
...and trains?   "Sun kinks" are another danger from extreme heat.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-warp-railroad-tracks-sun-kinks-17470 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-warp-railroad-tracks-sun-kinks-17470)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on May 27, 2014, 06:01:13 PM
Sig

Good point about trains.  It is surprising we do not have a topic for them.  Cars have no future in a sustainable system.  Trains may be about as close as you can get.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on May 30, 2014, 10:08:31 AM
Chinese Inventor Builds a Scooter That Doubles As a Suitcase
http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/29/chinese-inventor-builds-a-scooter-that-doubles-as-a-suitcase/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2014/05/29/chinese-inventor-builds-a-scooter-that-doubles-as-a-suitcase/)

Ok, just for a smile...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on June 08, 2014, 11:24:44 PM
If you want to recharge you very expensive Tesla  ;):
http://chargemap.com/ (http://chargemap.com/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JayW on June 09, 2014, 12:23:50 PM
A Tesla may be expensive, but you are paying up front largely. Oh, and supercharging is free for life.  That's at least worth 40-50 dollars a whack.  That can add up quick.  There are zero oil changes, no transmission, regenerative braking means you will rarely replace brakes. Tesla purposely built their motor, which is smaller than a watermelon, to reduce the use of rare earth metals.  It going to be interesting how many miles an electric motor car handle as opposed to an internal combustion engine.  The gigafactory would build batteries from raw materials, as well as recycling, or refurbishing for use in on site storage.  And be powered through solar and wind.

In the United States, car dealerships make most of their money servicing vehicles.  Elon Musk has repeatedly said he doesn't believe in that model, not too mention, dealers giving different prices to different buyers.  The car salesman is NOT looking out for the consumers best interests. That's why the dealerships are trying to ban sales.  The price for a Tesla is the same for everyone.

The end game for Elon Musk is to transform all modes of transportation.  He will remain at Tesla until the more affordable, mass market Tesla hits the market, he can't exercise many of his stick options till then.  He only got paid a salary of about 70,000 to lead Tesla in 2013.  SpaceX is his real passion. I really believe this guy just wants to use all his money to get a man on Mars.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 09, 2014, 01:15:05 PM
And if you want to charge your somewhat less expensive Nissan LEAF, Chevy Volt, etc.:  :D

http://www.plugshare.com/ (http://www.plugshare.com/)

Plugshare not only lists commercial charging stations, but "home" locations of people willing to let others charge at their residences.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on June 09, 2014, 02:39:11 PM
I agree that electric cars are not as good a solution as individuals traveling less, using mass transit whee they do travel and simply not owning cars.
However, that simply isn't going to happen until some calamity that the general public ties directly with CO2 output AND is convinced that worse calamities are inevitable.

So until we get politicians out of office that intentionally obfuscate GW it is, in my mind, far better to get people to use a mode of transportation that does less damage than the gas powered ones they are currently driving.

Replace the BMWs and Audis, Mercedes, Lexus cars with Teslas.

Far better to get 200,000 people to use a 50% solution than 2000 people using a 100% solution.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 10, 2014, 02:03:56 PM
Although the luxury car category has the highest percentage of electric cars, non-luxury EV sales volume is actually much higher:  17,688, versus 6,891, in 1Q2014.
http://www.plugincars.com/luxury-ev-sales-outpace-overall-market-129758.html (http://www.plugincars.com/luxury-ev-sales-outpace-overall-market-129758.html)

California has a mandate that 4.5% by 2018, and 15% by 2025, of a manufacturer's sales must be plug-in EVs.  Seven other states are also adopting that requirement, and 10 more are rumored to be considering something similar.
Automakers face penalties for non-compliance. Today, manufacturers who don’t produce electric vehicles must buy Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) credits from those who do. During 2012 and 2013, such companies as Chrysler, General Motors, and Honda bought ZEV credits from sellers such as Tesla, with the dollar amounts running into the tens of millions. For Tesla, the credits were an important business consideration, drawing $67.9 million in into its coffers during just the first quarter of 2013, according to numerous news reports.
http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=271798&itc=dn_analysis_element&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_auto,industry_alt,industry_gov,bid_318,aid_271798&dfpLayout=blog (http://www.designnews.com/author.asp?section_id=1366&doc_id=271798&itc=dn_analysis_element&dfpPParams=ind_184,industry_auto,industry_alt,industry_gov,bid_318,aid_271798&dfpLayout=blog)

Elon Musk is talking about opening up his Tesla EV patents, to help advance the industry.
http://gizmodo.com/tesla-might-just-open-up-its-electric-car-patents-1587851265/+pranavdixit (http://gizmodo.com/tesla-might-just-open-up-its-electric-car-patents-1587851265/+pranavdixit)

His "200-mile-range EV priced for the masses" due in 2016 could be a game-changer.
http://www.autonews.com/article/20130604/OEM05/130609958/affordable-tesla-to-arrive-in-late-2016 (http://www.autonews.com/article/20130604/OEM05/130609958/affordable-tesla-to-arrive-in-late-2016)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on June 10, 2014, 02:18:06 PM
Tesla's techno-cars - the right answer to the wrong question
http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2430397/teslas_technocars_the_right_answer_to_the_wrong_question.html (http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_comments/commentators/2430397/teslas_technocars_the_right_answer_to_the_wrong_question.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 10, 2014, 07:19:19 PM
The "electric car versus no-car" debate feels a lot like the "nuclear versus no-nuclear" debate.  The first choice is the easiest way to help reduce carbon emissions quickly -- but do we want more of that for the long term?

@NissanLEAF recently tweeted: "C02 emissions have been reduced by more than 133,000,000 kg globally thanks to the #NissanLEAF."

Note also that not all the EV fueling comes from the grid!  A 2012 study of EV owners found 39% had their own solar photovoltaic system, and another 17% were seriously considering it within the next year.  Larger commercial EV charging sites are also commonly solar powered.

"@TeslaRoadTrip: These 4 huge solar canopies generate enough electricity per year for 2 MILLION Electric Miles! #WVEV http://t.co/RjYVEYgDfW (http://t.co/RjYVEYgDfW)  "

http://www.builtbymichigan.org/newsletter/articles/2013/07/electric-cars-and-solar-panels-which-ones-gateway-drug (http://www.builtbymichigan.org/newsletter/articles/2013/07/electric-cars-and-solar-panels-which-ones-gateway-drug)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Anne on June 10, 2014, 07:38:31 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mysolarquotes.co.nz%2Fuploads%2Fhonda-charging-station.jpg&hash=98927bcac46915d065a6ffcd68e59e14)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 11, 2014, 02:03:17 AM
Ecotricity has built an "Electric Highway" series of EV chargers all across the UK that are solar-powered and free to use.  They serve various charging configurations and are located at existing service stations.

http://www.chargepointservices.co.uk/Projects/Electric-Highway (http://www.chargepointservices.co.uk/Projects/Electric-Highway)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on June 12, 2014, 08:48:38 AM
Iowa Man's Cadillac Burns Wood To Burn Rubber
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/11/wood-fired-cadillac_n_5486125.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/11/wood-fired-cadillac_n_5486125.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

Hum may be not ecological...I would see it smaller...with a more light car (500 Kg max) and a mass heater burning branches...

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on June 13, 2014, 01:00:43 AM
Tesla Is Giving Away All Of Its Ideas For Free
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/12/tesla-patents_n_5489237.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/12/tesla-patents_n_5489237.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 21, 2014, 04:38:31 PM
Swiss institute develops bus that re-charges in 15 seconds.
http://grist.org/list/this-magic-bus-recharges-while-you-dig-for-your-fare (http://grist.org/list/this-magic-bus-recharges-while-you-dig-for-your-fare)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2014, 06:40:05 PM
Slides from the IEA Oil medium term market report.
More than 5 1⁄2 in every 10 barrels of oil are used for transport, including 4 for road transport.
Less and less oil is being used for power generation and residential heating.
http://www.iea.org/media/140617_MediumTermOilMarketReport2014_Slides.pdf?utm_content=buffer23fe3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer (http://www.iea.org/media/140617_MediumTermOilMarketReport2014_Slides.pdf?utm_content=buffer23fe3&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on June 23, 2014, 07:43:12 PM
Harley just brought out a development motorcycle today.  They plan to sell an electric motorcycle in the next 2 years or more.

More and more electric......and less and less fossil fuels.  It is going to be a LONG TRANSITION....but it is continuing to gain steam.



Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on June 23, 2014, 08:04:10 PM
Ouahou very impressive, that's a real american, hard worker...n'est ce pas ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGJSI48gkFc# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGJSI48gkFc#)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/23/cadillac-tree-hugger-tesla-rival_n_5521891.html?utm_hp_ref=green& (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/23/cadillac-tree-hugger-tesla-rival_n_5521891.html?utm_hp_ref=green&)
ir=Green
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2014, 09:53:38 PM
Capturing the waste heat from braking a train to a halt; storing it in a battery, and using it to charge a fleet of electric buses.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/03/3452870/trains-power-buses/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/07/03/3452870/trains-power-buses/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2014, 02:42:31 PM
Changing public perceptions:  Formula E electric car racing.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/07/-sp-formula-e-electric-car-racing-motor-sport (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jul/07/-sp-formula-e-electric-car-racing-motor-sport)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2014, 02:37:40 AM
Joe Romm argues hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are less green, and less efficient, than pure electric cars:

”There are two huge problems with FCVs for those who worry about global warming and hence net greenhouse gas emissions:
- In general, some 95% of our hydrogen is currently produced from natural gas, or, rather, from the methane (CH4) that compromises most of natural gas.
- Making hydrogen from renewable resources like carbon-free electricity is expensive and an incredibly wasteful use of that valuable resource.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/05/3467115/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-cars-batteries/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/05/3467115/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-cars-batteries/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 10, 2014, 11:08:24 AM
Joe Romm argues hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are less green, and less efficient, than pure electric cars:

”There are two huge problems with FCVs for those who worry about global warming and hence net greenhouse gas emissions:
- In general, some 95% of our hydrogen is currently produced from natural gas, or, rather, from the methane (CH4) that compromises most of natural gas.
- Making hydrogen from renewable resources like carbon-free electricity is expensive and an incredibly wasteful use of that valuable resource.”

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/05/3467115/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-cars-batteries/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/05/3467115/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-cars-batteries/)
Sigmetnow, thank you very much for sharing studies like this. It helps me to learn, that things can be different at different places, sometimes even the opposite of a local fact is true at a distant location.

So I would like to try to interprete the study you cited for example:

If a country decided not to use renewable electricity from wind or PV and if that country has fossil gas resources it decided to explore extensively, then (and only then) the arguments of the study may hold. So that study may work in parts of USA, Russia and maybe a bit in Netherlands. Anywhere else? 

But if a country decided to use reneables from wind and PV, then there are a lot of windy/sunny days, when prices for electricity are zero or even negative. Instead of switching of the wind turbines it makes sense to produce hydrogen instead of wasting it - we call that wind gas. If such a country allready exploited all its natural gas in the past and now has to buy it from e.g. Russia, it makes sense today even to mix up to 5% electrolysis hydrogen into the gas delivered to the homes for heating.

The use of hydrogen for cars was explored for such reasons in Germany. too. But hydrogen storage today is considered to heavy/dangerous/expensive. So it makes more sense to process that hydrogen with CO2 to produce "wind methanol", which can be used as fuel with high energy density. But that is still a pilote thing today - probably even behind Teslas efforts to make efficient batteries. The benefit would be of course the smaller mass and that the value of the energy stored and the value of the storage (tank) are similar and not 1:1000 like with electrical batteries. And if the electricty comes from the renewables for both electrical cars and methanol cars it comes down to the effeciency of the storage solely - after how many cycles your battery pays of the lower efficiency of the double chemical conversion. I would guess the future is an electrical car with a methanol "range extender"...

But to conclude: The outcome of a study like the one you cited is clearly dependent on politics of the poeple solely. If poeple decide to avoid electricity wind/PV and pay a lot to exploit fossils (by letting their children pay for it, because they have to burry the char coal in future to reduce AGW) like in some states in USA - the results are different than in coutries where nuclear is subsidized (also by letting their children pay for the removal of the plants and the care-taking for the wast) or in countries paying now to build PV & wind (and let their poeple pay for 20 more years the loans, but their children will have the power for free...). The study is of local value only.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 10, 2014, 03:38:49 PM
"If a country decided not to use renewable electricity from wind or PV and if that country has fossil gas resources it decided to explore extensively, then (and only then) the arguments of the study may hold. So that study may work in parts of USA, Russia and maybe a bit in Netherlands. Anywhere else?"

While your discussion about the viability of hydrogen powered cars is accurate, (where renewables are used than hydrogen power is green) buried in your comment is a hopelessly inaccurate and/or optimistic view of the world. Below is a current breakdown of sources of electricity in the U.S. If there are parts of the U.S. using renewables, they are very itty bitty parts and that is not going to change soon.

Hydro power is absolutely tapped out, has not grown in decades, and will likely shrink due to the ongoing droughts in the American West. Other renewables, at their current growth rates, are many decades away from supplanting fossil fuels.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 10, 2014, 03:46:43 PM
Russia  is not much  better although hydro power represents a far larger piece of total generation. The most encouraging part  of this chart is the very low growth in electricity generation.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 06:07:59 PM
US hydro power is definitely not tapped out.  We've identified a large number of existing dams which can be converted to producers and we're installing "run of the river" generation.  There's a lot more hydro which can be brought on line.

"Other renewables, at their current growth rates, are many decades away from supplanting fossil fuels."

That depends on your definition of the word "many".  If many, to you, means more than three then you are probably wrong.

Wind and solar installation in the US are growing very rapidly.  We should have no problem replacing 2% of current levels of fossil fuel use per year with renewables (electricity).  At that rate we'd be able to replace coal and NG in 30 years.  And there's no reason to think that we can't move faster than 2% per year.

(Yes, I know you said "current", but we're in the rapid ramp-up phase.  We're likely to do a 1% replacement in 2014 and rates will likely continue to rise until we hit a fairly stable annual installation rate in a few years.)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 06:16:37 PM
Run of the river -

A new assessment conducted by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has identified more than 65 gigawatts of untapped hydropower potential in US rivers and streams. The greatest hydropower potential was found in western US states, including Alaska, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington. Kansas, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Wyoming led the rest of the country in new stream-reach hydropower potential.

The highest potential was identified in the Pacific Northwest Region (32%), followed by the Missouri Region (15%) and the California Region (9%). In total, the undeveloped NSD capacity is 84.7 GW, and the undeveloped NSD generation is estimated to be 460 TWh/year. When areas protected by federal legislation limiting the development of new hydropower (national parks, wild and scenic rivers, and wilderness areas) were excluded from the analysis, the estimated NSD capacity falls to 65.5 GW, slightly lower than the current existing U.S. conventional hydropower nameplate capacity (79.5 GW; NHAAP, 2013).

Undeveloped NSD generation with these areas excluded is estimated to be 347.3 TWh/year, roughly 128% of the average 2002–2011 net annual generation from existing plants (272 TWh/year; EIA, 2013). Since the assessment was designed to identify potential run-of-river projects, NSD stream-reaches have higher capacity factors (53%–71%), especially compared with conventional larger-storage peaking-operation projects that usually have capacity factors of around 30%.


http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/04/20140430-ornlnsd.html (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2014/04/20140430-ornlnsd.html)

Converting existing dams -

In 2007 the US Departments of Interior, Army and Energy released a review of 871 dams on federal land which are not currently used to produce electricity.  Of the 871 they found that 195 (22%) had a adequate elevation (head) and were reasonably close to existing power transmission lines.  Of that 195 a total of 71 (8% of the original 871) were located outside of protected areas (national parks, wilderness areas, etc.) and had adequate generating capacity (enough year around flow) based on actual hydrological records to make them good candidates for power generation.  The 14% which had enough head but not adequate year round flow should be good candidates for pump-up storage.

http://www.usbr.gov/power/data/1834/Sec1834_EPA.pdf (http://www.usbr.gov/power/data/1834/Sec1834_EPA.pdf)

In the US we have approximately 80,000 dams with about 2,400 (3%) used for power generation. We get 6%-7% of all our electricity from those 2,400 dams.

If we use the federal findings as an indicator we might suspect that over 6,300 dams might be available to supply power to the grid and another 10,800 might serve pump-up storage purposes.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 10, 2014, 06:59:45 PM
While your discussion about the viability of hydrogen powered cars is accurate, (where renewables are used than hydrogen power is green) buried in your comment is a hopelessly inaccurate and/or optimistic view of the world. Below is a current breakdown of sources of electricity in the U.S. If there are parts of the U.S. using renewables, they are very itty bitty parts and that is not going to change soon.
Shared Humanity, I can not see much of a difference between what I posted and what you showed. So I have no idea what is buried in my comment, that seems to be "hopelessly inaccurate and/or optimistic view".

To be more specific: I do not see most of the states of USA or Russia to start the transition to renewables anytime soon. I see some effort in California, Nevada, Arizona - but nothing which would make a concept like "wind gas" or "wind methanol" necessary in the foreseeable future. There is just not enough PV or wind installed for that. So for such places (like Russia and USA) the study presented by Sigmetnow above maybe is not totally wrong. But for countries with >20% electricity from PV & wind allready now and with a clear roadmap to 50-80% that study is totally wrong. E.g. with an average of 50% of electricty from PV and wind it is clear, that very often production of electricty is way larger than 100% of demand. In the near future (25-50% PV&wind) that can be compensated by hydro pump & hydro abroad (therefore, new power lines are the key today) but later power to gas is one of the possibilities to make use of all that "excess electricity". I did explain that with detailed numbers in the renewables thread. Hydro should be considered a battery and not a primary electricity source, simply because of efficiency of the total system. Just because the primary energies we can not tune are PV and wind. So hydro must be 100% spared for the frequent times without wind and sun. After that all excess energy is available at zero costs for hydrolysis. Batteries in electrical cars can be neglected for that point - that capacity will allways be incredible small even with 100% electrical cars.

But for countries not starting the transition to renewables at all (like Russia and USA), all that technologies make no sense. At that places there is no demand for PV and wind and power-to-gas technologies. So we can ignore that places from an economical perspective of the transition and the scaling completely.

I wondered often why there is such a hype about electrical cars in California. I can see no good reason with relationship to global emission - if you know one, I would be happy to learn about that. I believe, electrical cars and hyprid cars are subsidized in California to move the emissions from the cities to the power plants in some distant to the cities with 0 global impact. Maybe it is just hippster-bullshit or maybe they really want to help the technology - this last one would be an optimistic point of view. All others are quite realistic.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 09:23:52 PM
"Hydro should be considered a battery and not a primary electricity source, simply because of efficiency of the total system."

Hydro is both and more. 

Run of river hydro is 'always on' generation.  Stream-fed hydro is dispatchable generation.  Pump-up hydro is storage, and potentially our lowest long term storage (along with flow batteries).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 09:39:18 PM
"I wondered often why there is such a hype about electrical cars in California. I can see no good reason with relationship to global emission - if you know one, I would be happy to learn about that."

The relationship should be obvious.  EVs can be operated on 100% renewable, carbon free electricity. 

Yes, if they are run on 100% coal powered grids they are slightly worse than a high efficiency ICEV, but there are no 100% coal powered grids. 

Do remember that we are in a transition period during which we are replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.  There's no way to make that transition happen overnight, it will take a couple of decades to get most of the fossil fuels off most grids.  And it may take up to  four decades to get almost all fossil fuel off all grids.

EVs are the route to getting fossil fuels off our highways.  Again, that transition will not happen over night.  Over the next 3-5 years we should see ranges increase and purchase prices fall.  Given that we are able to purchase ~200 mile range EVs for under $30k within five years, within ten years we should see a rapid movement away from ICEVs with a gradual disappearance of ICEVs over the following 20 years as the existing stock ages out.

EVs will play an important role in greening our grids.  They will form a very large dispatchable load which utilities can use to help match supply to demand.  Given that the average EV will need to charge less than 3 hours per day and many will be able to skip multiple days of charging they will be extremely useful for the incorporation of larger amounts of wind and solar generation.  They will make the cost of electricity cheaper because they will reduce the amount of storage and dispatchable generation needed.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 10, 2014, 10:20:42 PM
EVs will play an important role in greening our grids.  They will form a very large dispatchable load which utilities can use to help match supply to demand.  Given that the average EV will need to charge less than 3 hours per day and many will be able to skip multiple days of charging they will be extremely useful for the incorporation of larger amounts of wind and solar generation.  They will make the cost of electricity cheaper because they will reduce the amount of storage and dispatchable generation needed.
The same is true for wind-gas - but orders of magnitude larger. Even if 100% of cars where electrical, their batteries would help us over 6 dark hours until they are all empty. Existing gas storage would do that for weeks-month. The same scale is doable with river hydro (pump storage of course, too. That where they were build for), if they are run in "battery mode", as explained in the renewable thread https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg18176.html#msg18176.

So - I can see no argument rating electrical cars over power-gas-driven cars. Of course they are better than combustion. And of course both are future things - as mentioned above, perhaps due in the 2030th, when we will have 50% renewables in the grid. That would fit well.

In the mean time I appreciate how Calfifornia drives the develepment of electric cars to get the prices down in 10-20 years. That is a generous investment helping the whole world. That way it did work also for wind and PV in the last years and that is the way to go. Politics has to drive the market to renewables, since the market as it is today has still no knowledge about AGW.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 10, 2014, 10:36:22 PM
It seems as if people are assuming that EVs are not overwhelmingly better than ICEVs because of coal electricity generation used to charge batteries. Actually the numbers used for these comparisons are almost completely driven by the assumptions of the amount of carbon used to produce the batteries used in the EVs.

These assumptions are old and were based on the notion that the batteries are all produced in China. This is not the reality. Nissan leaf batteries are made in TN which produces most of its electricity from hydro, nuclear and natural gas. The carbon component of EV batteries will continue to drop as renewal energy will be used by Tesla to produce more batteries than anyone else.

Remove the battery carbon component and EVs are massively more carbon efficient even on 100% coal generated electricity.

Note that an EV uses less electricity to drive 25 miles than is needed to refine 1 gallon of gasoline. Why do we never hear about the carbon cost of using coal power to refine gasoline?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 10:38:40 PM
I really don't think we'll see significant use of EVs as grid storage.  EV batteries are likely to be much more expensive than large scale utility storage solutions simply because EV batteries need to minimize weight and size.

EVs can be, probably will be, very significant dispatchable loads.  That will minimize the need for storage and will allow "overbuilding" of wind and solar for grid use without curtailing generation.  Supply peaks will have a home.

Wind-gas is a very inefficient storage technology.  More than 50% of the input energy is lost.  Compare that with PuHS (85% to 95% efficient) and flow batteries (65% to 75% efficient).  The capital cost of wind-gas would have to be very much lower than PuHS or flow to make it a player.  Remember, long term storage with PuHS is simply a matter of making the reservoirs larger and for flow batteries it requires more tanks and inexpensive chemicals.

"So - I can see no argument rating electrical cars over power-gas-driven cars."

Cost per mile.  Very simple math.  It takes over 2x as much renewable electricity per mile for a FCEV.  If you want to go renewable electricity -> synthetic gas -> ICEV then the energy loss is tremendous.

Then add in infrastructure costs over and above the 2+x generation cost.  The distribution infrastructure for EVs is largely in place.  About 50% of all US drivers already have a place to plug in when they park.  Adding outlets for the other 50% will not be a major expense.

If we choose the liquid fuel/H2 route then we basically have to replace every refinery and every fuel station (over 125,000 @ $1 million to $2 million each). 

The extra solar panel/wind farm and the extra infrastructure costs would get added to the fuel price.

If/when we get ~200 mile EVs for under $30k (the average new car price in the US is over $30k) then look for EVs to take off.   The cost per mile savings will drive buyer choice.  As will lower maintenance costs and higher convenience.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 10:50:20 PM
"Politics has to drive the market to renewables, since the market as it is today has still no knowledge about AGW."

No, I think we're entering the phase where market forces take over from government kick-starting.

Onshore wind (non-subsidized) in the US has apparently fallen to about 3.5 cents per kWh.  (We should get confirmation on that price within the month.)

3.5 c/kWh is cheaper than the current price of electricity from natural gas and considerably cheaper than electricity from new coal and new nuclear.  NG prices are not likely to drop back to where they were during our drilling investment bubble which created a surplus and brought prices very low.

Wind becomes a very attractive hedge against rising NG prices.  Locking in a fixed <4c price for the next 20, 25 years will drive lots of new contracts and builds. 

Solar is now selling for 5 cents/kWh in the sunny places of the US.  That translates to about 6.5c without subsidy and subsidies are legislated for the next two years, dropping to 10% for a couple more years before disappearing.  Look for the non-subsidized price of solar to be below 5c, possibly below 4c by 2018.

We're getting ready to close about 200 coal plants.  And we've got a couple dozen nuclear plants close to bankruptcy.  Utilities are likely to purchase as much wind and solar as possible to fill those vacancies and to use NG only as fill-in while we develop cheaper storage.

AGW won't drive many 'what to purchase' decisions.  Costs per kWh will be the driver.  Wind and solar are moving into the driver's seat.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 11:00:57 PM
"Remove the battery carbon component and EVs are massively more carbon efficient even on 100% coal generated electricity.

Note that an EV uses less electricity to drive 25 miles than is needed to refine 1 gallon of gasoline. Why do we never hear about the carbon cost of using coal power to refine gasoline?"

I'm largely in agreement with you but I'm going to take issue with these two statements.

I've read two studies which found that the carbon footprint for an electric car charged on 100% coal-produced electricity would be slightly higher than that of a efficient ICEV burning gasoline.  That's charging/fuel only, no battery carbon included.

I've worked through the electricity used to refine oil in California (2010 numbers).  The amount of purchased grid electricity per gallon of gasoline is low.  About 0.16 kWh per gallon.  The total energy input for refining is around 3.14 kWh but that is a combination of heat and electricity generated inside the refinery. 

In 2010 refineries in CA purchased 46,227,000,000 kWh of electricity.  They produced 286,517,700,000 gallons of gasoline.  0.16 kWh/gallon.

I've seen claims that it takes 6 kWh of energy per gallon of gasoline from the well to the vehicle tank but only a portion of that seems to be grid electricity. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 10, 2014, 11:42:08 PM
"Politics has to drive the market to renewables, since the market as it is today has still no knowledge about AGW."

No, I think we're entering the phase where market forces take over from government kick-starting.
Hm - I would doubt that one point (most of your other points were in-line). It depends on your politics, they could continue to help fossils against PV and wind or they could make the current success of PV & wind also possible in USA. That will be important for the future of the poeple in USA. It would also help poeple elsewhere a bit, since every scaling helps to drive the costs further down and every g CO2 saved in USA would also help here in the end. So I really hope the best.

And concerning the race pure electric vs. wind-gas I am really open. As mentioned above - my guess would be electrical with a wind-methanol range extender. But a new idea like swaping the empty battery against a full one at the station could also do the trick for the long distance. We will continue to try harder and we will see.

Nevertheless, the critics against that study remains valid - that study does not fit here and will not do. That was my point if you missed that.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 10, 2014, 11:59:45 PM
"It depends on your politics, they could continue to help fossils against PV and wind or they could make the current success of PV & wind also possible in USA."

Speaking only about the US and renewables (situations vary wildly around the globe) politics seem to be driving wind.  The onshore wind-rich parts of the US are generally our most conservative.  We've seen legislation designed to hamper the growth of wind fail in Republican dominated legislatures and Republican governors traveling to Washington to lobby for wind subsidies.

Wind is bringing good jobs along with sweet local and state tax revenues to places where small towns were dying and populations shrinking.

Solar is now being supported by many conservatives.  Saving money is more important to many than is hating on people unlike themselves.  They're putting hippie panels on their roofs in order to lower their electricity bills.  The Georgia Tea Party came out in support of more solar power in Georgia.

The battle will continue for some time longer, but wind and solar industries are now large enough that they are getting respect.  IIRC, there are something like 127,000 people employed by the wind industry (solar jobs are booming) while the coal industry employees only 90,000 and the oil industry  60,000.  That's with wind and solar providing less than 5% of our electricity and replace an insignificant amount of oil at this point.  We're short years from the number of people working for renewables greatly outnumber the number of fossil fuel jobs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 11, 2014, 12:14:41 AM
"my guess would be electrical with a wind-methanol range extender"

I ran across this interesting graph a few days ago.  It shows PHEVs and hybrids being forced off the market as battery prices drop.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FEVsdisplacePHEVs.png&hash=789a7124748f73105f22a856508f43b3) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/EVsdisplacePHEVs.png.html)

As far as swappable batteries, 'superchargers' along with higher range EVs are likely where we are heading.

Right now you can leave home in a Tesla Model S and drive ~260 miles, stop for 30 minutes and grab another 176 miles.  That's 436 with a lunch break.  600 miles with two meal breaks.

Tesla is talking a 200 mile range EV for ~$35k in the next couple of years (Model III or 3 or backwards E to complete the SEX run).

200 miles, 30 minutes for 160, 30 min, 160 and you've gone over 500 miles with two modest breaks.  Probably not any longer than one would stop with a current ICEV.  (One fuel stop, one meal stop, a pee/drink/check message stop.)

Since very few of our driving days are longer than 150 miles (less than 5%) few people are likely to be concerned about arriving ten minutes later if it means saving major money all year long.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 11, 2014, 12:03:19 PM
"my guess would be electrical with a wind-methanol range extender"

I ran across this interesting graph a few days ago.  It shows PHEVs and hybrids being forced off the market as battery prices drop.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FEVsdisplacePHEVs.png&hash=789a7124748f73105f22a856508f43b3) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/EVsdisplacePHEVs.png.html)
Great graph. So electrical cars should be competetive here today, as we pay about 9 US $ per gallone (of course we use SI units in fact...). OK, electrical energy is also heavy taxed (~30 €ct/kWh = 40 $ct/kWh), but that is way less than petrol. Energy is expensive here for the purpose to educate the private poeple AGW ;-)

OK - the hybrid you may skip here, since they make no sense on the Autobahn, since you do not brake at all. More expensive and still more consumption than most combustion cars here as most test have shown...

So today the problems hindering electrical here are infrastructure (2 superchargers in northern Germany...), kind of cars (only tiny cars or super-duper sports cars are available - what about the Ford Focus?) and the mind set: Poeple got used to 800 km range and at 160 km/h a Tesla S goes 220 km -> time for driving = time for charging.
But times for change are here... the next years will become very interesting, because Tesla forced our car manufactures to take electrical seriously now. So perhaps we will see some electrical VW and BMW on the streets soon.

Edit: Here some info about situation here: After about 27,000 km an electrical car pays of ecological (in terms of CO2). And after 160,000 km it pays of economical. The difference is part of the problem today.  Attached picture from here: http://www.zeit.de/2014/29/elektroautos-anzahl (http://www.zeit.de/2014/29/elektroautos-anzahl)

But that comparison might not be fair, since they compare an electrical car with a combustion car emitting 200 g CO2/km - that is a very old dirty car. The average polution from last years new cars was about 130 g CO2/km, so it would take 90,000 km for ecological tie or much more renewables in the electricity mix than our 25%. A Blue motion Diesel Polo (82 g/km) would be hard to beat anytime soon. So some effort is still necessary but the tipping point will come for sure one day - after 50% renewables? After doubling capacity of the battery at same price? After doubling of the prices for petrol - more taxes maybe?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 11, 2014, 07:44:06 PM
Fascinating talk about batteries for cars and more and more for grid storage. J B Straubel is inspiring. (and I thought Tesla was all about cars...little did I know)

2014 Energy Storage Symposium - JB Straubel's Keynote (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zWSox7mLbyE#ws)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: RunningChristo on August 11, 2014, 10:12:25 PM
Sale of Tesla S in Norway through July have risen a staggering 64860% this year...from 5 to 3248 cars, the 2. most sold model overall in 2014. Pretty impressive considering the populatition of Norway, just above 5 million.  Nissan Leaf is BTW number 4...the less pricey model for the common man in the street. Starting price for a "simple" Tesla S in Norway: Above $100.000!

Why so sucessfull in Norway? Much less taxes, free to drive in the Bus/Taxi-lanes into towns, free passing through the many tollroads etc. So only the government loose Income so far...So changes less favorable for Electric cars may take Place in a year or two.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 12, 2014, 07:24:32 AM
Norway doesn't charge import tax on EVs.  That's a very heavy subsidy and has driven sales very high.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: retiredbill on August 30, 2014, 12:54:49 AM
Cars and trucks, as well as boats and other forms of personal transportation have been mentioned
in several threads. However, internal combustion engines using fossil fuel have only been
around for a hundred years or so. Prior to that, horses (and mules, donkeys, etc.) were the
main means people used to get around.

When the collapse of civilization occurs, what happens to personal transportation? Today there are
only a small number of horses around. How long will it take to increase their numbers? And since
hunger will be a major problem, will draft animals instead be killed for food? Up until collapse, fertile land
will be used for human food, not for the feed necessary to raise horses.

I wonder if any form of agriculture will be possible without the use of animals. Another reason to think
 that life post-collapse may be subsistence-based.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 30, 2014, 01:15:12 AM
...snip...

I wonder if any form of agriculture will be possible without the use of animals. Another reason to think
 that life post-collapse may be subsistence-based.
Two words:  electric tractor.  :-)

"If an electric tractor is combined with photovoltaic (PV) charging, whether on the tractor itself in the form of a solar panel shade canopy or on the roof of a building, no other fuel source is necessary. .... Photovoltaics provide an ideal energy source for agriculture because the growing season coincides with the availability of solar energy."

http://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/solar-powered-electric-tractors-zmaz02amzgoe.aspx#ixzz3BpEdz9E6 (http://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/solar-powered-electric-tractors-zmaz02amzgoe.aspx#ixzz3BpEdz9E6)

http://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/electric-lawn-mowers-electric-tractors-zmaz06aszraw.aspx#axzz3BpE8FZXr (http://www.motherearthnews.com/homesteading-and-livestock/electric-lawn-mowers-electric-tractors-zmaz06aszraw.aspx#axzz3BpE8FZXr)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 30, 2014, 03:03:29 AM
https://cartsandtools.com/product/tillie/
Here is an electric tiller that can be recharged with a small solar panel. In the field if you wish.
I have been using a tiller and an electric wheel hoe for a year now. As might be expected I have had a couple issues with my new tools but customer service and fed-ex are current luxuries.( good thing too ) Supply lines might not hold over time ? Spare parts or redundancy like buying extra tillers might buy somebody a few extra years but the advantage to horses or oxen as beasts of burden is that they self replicate, or more accurately propagate without needing supply lines. Horses are currently a luxury as they demand a large amount of land to keep fed.in the long run it may be population declines free up some spare land. Bottom line is since we can't forecast the speed or starting point for potential population declines or collapse in general it might be wise to include electric, biofuels( animal fat or vegetable oils ) and beasts of burden in your farming equipment barn. I have experimented with all these options. Fryer grease- methanol - sodium hydroxide- biofuels for my old diesel tractor,electric tillers in some areas ( like my greenhouse ) sans all liquid fuels, and without much success driving my wife's welch pony. The pony was willing and trained to a buggy  but we made anything but straight lines. We could  master this I suppose but in order to really think of animals as self replicating you do have to maintain a breeding program or depend on someone nearby who maintains a herd.   
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 30, 2014, 03:11:43 AM
"When the collapse of civilization occurs"    ;D

The near future could play out two way. 

A) Oil supplies tighten.  We put measures in place to require more efficiency (car pooling, even fuel rationing) in order to keep adequate fuel for critical uses such as emergency responders and agriculture.  Oh, and executive limos.  While we move drivers into EVs and PHEVs.

or-

B) We move drivers into EVs and PHEVs and put off tightening oil supplies for a couple hundred years or more.

I'm betting on B.




Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 30, 2014, 06:11:18 AM
Bob Wallace, 
 Putting off tightening oil supplies for a couple hundred years might be closer to my personal nightmare
 I don't know what we will do over the next twenty but it will be our contribution. The last ten have been very disappointing from a Co2 emission trend line.
 I was ,in my last post, trying to make a point about investigating many potential tools for many potential outcomes. An electric car would be good of course but if our  Co2 emissions growth rate is in the 2% range we are not fixing the problem.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 30, 2014, 06:43:03 AM

I really don't think we'll quit using oil because oil disappears.  I think we'll quit using (very much) oil because we're developing cheaper alternatives.  Personal vehicles and rail travel/freight will be much cheaper with electricity than with oil. 

As far as CO2, emissions in both Europe and the US have been declining.  It looks like China might not be far from peak CO2, they may have hit peak coal and China has very aggressive programs to install renewables and  to get people into EVs.

I can't predict with any certainty, but it looks to me that CO2 growth  will be slowing soon and then reversing. 

And CO2 growth may already be slowing.  I know very well that one data point does not a trend show, but year to year July CO2 in 2014 was 1.8 ppm.  The 2004 to 2013 annual average was 2.07.  We'll have to watch for a while to see if this the beginning of the slowing or just noise. 

With so many countries moving to renewables I will not be surprised if we look back to see 2014 as the year the Great Slowing began to show.



Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 30, 2014, 07:35:15 AM
Bob Wallace, A 1.8 percent increase ,year overall, would be a nice downturn. And next year something also < 2%.  All the worst of acidifications effects are dependent upon total emissions and if the increase rates decline so too will the timeline to the worst of the  biological impacts. Actual declines in annual emissions would be something to see. 
Crossed fingers and constant focus     NOT / BAU   
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 30, 2014, 03:26:14 PM
Slowing growth of CO2 emissions is encouraging but it does not come close to what we need.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 30, 2014, 06:24:17 PM
Seems like it shouldn't be necessary to point out that before a very large system can be put in reverse it first needs to be slowed, then stopped, and then it can be reversed.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 30, 2014, 06:32:08 PM
Seems like it shouldn't be necessary to point out that before a very large system can be put in reverse it first needs to be slowed, then stopped, and then it can be reversed.

Absolutely.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 30, 2014, 06:34:09 PM
"before a very large system can be put in reverse it first needs to be slowed, then stopped, and then it can be reversed."

Sometimes.
Sometimes not.

Since this is the "Cars..." thread, recall that the production of cars was immediately stopped completely in the US at the onset of WWII. No slowdown. Just immediately halted.

When the need is correctly perceived to be immediate and the threat existential, massive sudden alterations in basic behavior can happen.

http://www.teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/24088 (http://www.teachinghistory.org/history-content/ask-a-historian/24088)

....

Apologies if this has already been posted:

Helsinki Wants To Make Privately-Owned Cars Obsolete


nstead of continually improving the efficiency of cars, might it be better to replace them entirely?

A few cities encourageresidents to eschew car use for public transit, cycling, or car-sharing services--but now one is trying to eliminate privately-owned cars altogether.

Helsinki, Finland, is planning an ambitious public ridesharing service that could make privately-owned cars obsolete, according to a recent Navigant Research blog post.

The Finnish capital wants to create a subscriber service that would give residents on-demand access to several transportation options, including carsharing, bikesharing, ferries, and the minibus service the city launched last year.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 30, 2014, 08:07:55 PM
Since this is the "Cars..." thread, recall that the production of cars was immediately stopped completely in the US at the onset of WWII. No slowdown. Just immediately halted.

That is true.  It only took a world war to bring that about.

Well, it's partly true.  I really doubt that car companies halted assembly lines, pushed all the incomplete cars off to the side and immediately inserted tanks. 

Look, if there was enough of a perception of emergency we could cut the use of oil to a tiny percentage of what is now in very few years. 

We could require all new autos and light trucks sold to be either EVs or PHEVs starting in 3 to 5 years.  Then use a combination of carrots and sticks to get the most inefficient vehicles off the road.

We could change regulations to give passenger trains priority on rail tracks and put a lot of passenger cars on line for moderate length travel while stopping most moderate length flights. 

We could put carbon prices on shipping, creating more local manufacturing and less trans ocean shipping.

Personally, I think we should do some of those things. But I realize that only a tiny part of the populace agrees with me so we won't move that fast unless things get a lot worse quickly. 

But I'm not despondent,  I'm watching things change and I'm happy that they are changing.  I'm looking at rates of change and expecting the transition to clean energy to follow the same trajectory we've seen in many other technology transitions.  A slow start, gradual but exponential growth, and the a rapid growth rate until the transition nears completion.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FTechAdopt.jpg&hash=7a2bbec38e6f4813254d4a79601d20e9) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/TechAdopt.jpg.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 30, 2014, 08:34:33 PM
Bob Wallace, A 1.8 percent increase ,year overall, would be a nice downturn. And next year something also < 2%.  All the worst of acidifications effects are dependent upon total emissions and if the increase rates decline so too will the timeline to the worst of the  biological impacts. Actual declines in annual emissions would be something to see. 
Crossed fingers and constant focus     NOT / BAU

After downloading annual CO2 levels, an 1.8 pmm is not unusual.  Year to year variation is fairly large. 

During the last 10  years the amount of growth has ranged from 0.89 ppm (2004) to 3.17 ppm (2005).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 31, 2014, 12:53:06 AM
" if there was enough of a perception of emergency "

Thank you for admitting that this is the prime, sole, and ultimate objective.

Any talk of incrementalism is then absolutely contrary to that goal.

Please cease and desist from said incrementalism immediately.

Oh, never mind. I see from your response on the coal thread that you are an insincere, cherry-picking troll.

No use playing chess with pidgeons.

Goodbye.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 01:26:35 AM
In what way is " if there was enough of a perception of emergency " an objective?

It's an observation.

As for the rest of your post, are you drunk?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 31, 2014, 04:53:47 AM
And what, pray tell, is wrong with being drunk??  :P
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 31, 2014, 07:11:01 AM
Bob Wallace, If i would like to see actual declines in emissions it would seem obvious declines in percentage increases would be a first sign I might get my wish. Only counts however if those 3% increases are forever relegated to history. It will mean we are on the other side of Hubbert's Peak and everything you and I
have ever known
 how that turns out is anyones guess.

Cars cars cars and horses?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 07:34:16 AM
The Nissan Leaf has an MSRP of $28,980 which puts it a few thousand below the average purchase price of a new car in the US (~$32,000).  With gas savings of about $1,500 a year over the price of charging with grid power that puts the Leaf (without subsidies) within the reach of almost all new car buyers.  (I'll take time to flesh out those numbers if you like.)

EV prices should come down quickly as production volumes increase.  Within a few years we should be able to offer an EV 'econobox' for $15k or less.  Perhaps only a 40 mile range, but that would work for a lot of people.

It would cost only a few hundred dollars to install charge outlets where people park during the day which would mean a very sold 120 mile daily range in a Leaf-type with home and work charging.

We have spare capacity and transmission to charge 70% of all US cars and light trucks were they to become electric overnight.

For somewhere in the $5k to $7k range (and German/Australian/UK installed prices) one could put solar on their roof that would produce all the electricity they need for 13,000 miles a year for the next 40+ years.

Now, that leaves only a few people who couldn't do their normal, necessary daily driving with a Leaf or other sub-100 mile range EV.   We could fuel a small percentage with biofuels, even if it was straight ethanol.

Our cramp would be the long distance stuff and for that we might need to put a lot of people on rail rather than the road.  And electrify our rail like Russia did.

If we found out that the Middle Eastern oil folks have been shucking us and they're actually out of oil we could, with some concerted effort, switch over to EVs very rapidly.  Ramp up car pooling, use fuel rationing, and put a lot more buses on the road during the transition.

We're not going back to horses.  We're not going to have to quit driving. 

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 07:50:29 AM
" i would like to see actual declines in emissions"

US emissions going down since 2005.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FCO2DropbyRegion.png&hash=6bd786084566fa99fd2796ddf4a31c6f) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/CO2DropbyRegion.png.html)


Europe going down since 1990.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FCO21990to2011.jpeg&hash=33806956f9e3ca7a82e28c71a1a29c95) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/CO21990to2011.jpeg.html)



The World's cars going down since 2000.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2FCarsCO2-1.jpg&hash=8eac44685b29f8b1314f20084b308f63) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/CarsCO2-1.jpg.html)

What we don't have yet is a picture of China's emissions going down.  But it looks like we might have a picture of China hitting peak coal consumption.  It will take a couple more years to be sure that this isn't just a lull of some sort, but there was a definite slope change about six years back.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi619.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Ftt275%2FBob_Wall%2F2014-08-18-china1-thumb.png&hash=c7ff85375ca50c0a710fd7977fc4cde7) (http://s619.photobucket.com/user/Bob_Wall/media/2014-08-18-china1-thumb.png.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 31, 2014, 10:37:55 AM
" i would like to see actual declines in emissions"

I assume Bruce meant net global emissions, which is the only figure that ultimately matters as far as GW goes, so graphs of national and regional are essentially meaningless for this.

IEA says: "Global coal consumption grew from 4,762 million tonnes in 2000 up to 7,697 million tonnes in 2012. This is 60% growth, or 4% average growth per year.

(And note: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28942403 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28942403)

"Full extent of global coal 'binge' is hidden")

Global oil and gas production have also increased over the same period (though not at quite that break-neck pace).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 31, 2014, 11:06:41 AM
We could require all new autos and light trucks sold to be either EVs or PHEVs starting in 3 to 5 years.  Then use a combination of carrots and sticks to get the most inefficient vehicles off the road.
Bob, that would not help much, since electrical cars are still not better in terms of CO2 than efficient combustions cars (as posted above: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg34060.html#msg34060).

It would help much more/easier/faster if poeple would switch to efficient existing (<100 g/km cars are way cheaper than EV or the big senseless SUVs) cars or quit driving at all. EV will beat combustion after the transistion of electric power generation to renewables is 50% completed. Since some countries did not start that transition yet, the path to CO2 efficient EVs is blocked there...

There is no other way: All countries must start the transition to renewables - the sooner the better also for the US of A. Until that happens electrical cars are only a life-style hype as usual in the car business (but helping a bit to get prices down for some countries in Europe, where EV's will start making sense in 5-10 years). And that Tesla-talking about batteries helping the power grid is purely marketing bullshit. Its effect may be  measurable in a country with <1% solar - but in a real renewable scenario you easily can neglect the impact of all mobile batteries on the power grid. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 31, 2014, 12:52:33 PM
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/committed_carbon_emissions_are_rising_fast_20140830?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+Truthdig+Truthdig%253A+Drilling+Beneath+the+Headlines (http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/committed_carbon_emissions_are_rising_fast_20140830?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%253A+Truthdig+Truthdig%253A+Drilling+Beneath+the+Headlines)

Committed Carbon Emissions Are Rising Fast

...existing power plants will emit 300 billion tons of additional carbon dioxide into the atmosphere during their lifetimes. In this century alone, emissions have grown by 4% per year.

...once a power station is built, how much carbon dioxide will it emit, and for how long?

...The fossil fuel-burning stations built worldwide in 2012 alone will produce 19 bn tons of carbon dioxide over their lifetimes. The entire world production of the greenhouse gas from all the world’s working fossil fuel power stations in 2012 was 14 billion tons.

    “Far from solving the problem of climate change, we’re investing heavily in technologies that make the problem worse

...“Bringing down carbon emissions means retiring more fossil fuel-burning facilities than we build,” Dr Davis said. “But worldwide we’ve built more coal-burning power plants in the past decade than in any previous decade, and closures of old plants aren’t keeping pace with this expansion.

...Professor Socolow said: “We’ve been hiding what’s going on from ourselves.

A high-carbon future is being locked in by the world’s capital investments..."

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 04:45:30 PM
" i would like to see actual declines in emissions"

I assume Bruce meant net global emissions, which is the only figure that ultimately matters as far as GW goes, so graphs of national and regional are essentially meaningless for this.

IEA says: "Global coal consumption grew from 4,762 million tonnes in 2000 up to 7,697 million tonnes in 2012. This is 60% growth, or 4% average growth per year.

(And note: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28942403 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28942403)

"Full extent of global coal 'binge' is hidden")

Global oil and gas production have also increased over the same period (though not at quite that break-neck pace).

wili - you link 2012 data.  I gave you 2013 and 2014 data that shows no growth of coal use in China past 2012.  In fact, a slight reduction in the first half of 2014.

How about we all leave 2012 behind and look at what is happening in the world in 2014?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 04:54:01 PM
We could require all new autos and light trucks sold to be either EVs or PHEVs starting in 3 to 5 years.  Then use a combination of carrots and sticks to get the most inefficient vehicles off the road.
Bob, that would not help much, since electrical cars are still not better in terms of CO2 than efficient combustions cars (as posted above: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg34060.html#msg34060).


Switching very quickly to EVs/PHEVs was a response to Bruce's "Cars cars cars and horses?".  I made no claim that moving quickly to EVs/PHEVs would immediately lower CO2 emissions.  It probably wouldn't since we'd likely use more NG and coal to charge at nights.

But that period would likely be short.  Lots of electric vehicles on the road would create a new market for late night wind.  Late night hours experience low demand, large thermal pants can't/don't want to turn off, and sell their power cheap. 

Bring more demand on line and the price of late night electricity goes up a bit.  Profits for wind farms rise.  Investment is attracted.  The rate of building wind farms increases.  We have not only carbon-free electricity for charging our cars at night but also more carbon-free electricity during the day which will supplant fossil fuel generation.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 31, 2014, 06:34:25 PM
I thought that gains in efficiency actually do mean EV's show a marked reduction in CO2 production, even if they get their electricity from coal. Am I just way off on that? Do embedded energy costs outweigh those savings?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 06:46:49 PM
I've read three studies.  Two found that if we charged electric cars from a grid that was 100% coal-fed the CO2 from the electrics would be slightly more than from an efficient ICEV.  (Don't recall if they were using hybrids for their comparison.)  One found slightly less.  So depending on the parameters chosen we wouldn't gain anything by switching to EVs if we got all our electricity from coal.

But we have no 100% coal grids in the US.  And I don't know of any in the world.  On a state basis, our heaviest coal using state, IIRC, gets about 90% from coal and at least one state gets less than 10% of its electricity from coal.  So it depends on where you plug in right now.

Of course grids almost everywhere are getting cleaner. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 06:53:09 PM
Let me copy in something that I had archived...

"Argonne National Laboratories has something called the GREET model. (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) I downloaded the so-called GREET model but it turned out to be quite complicated.

Then I found what they call their "mini-tool" which gives a summary of various vehicle/fuel technologies. You can find it here: http://greet.es.anl.gov/results (http://greet.es.anl.gov/results) Click where it says "here" to download the Excel spreadsheet. After you open the spreadsheet go to the bottom and click on the "per_mi" tab.

These greenhouse gas calculations are well-to-wheels. In other words, ALL energy expenditures are included such as drilling, transporting of crude, refining, and transportation to the pump, etc, etc. The units are grams of CO2 equivalent per mile. I picked out some of the most common vehicles and fuels.

Conventional ICE gasoline......451
HEV gasoline........................323
FFV corn ethanol E85............371
FFV switchgrass E85............119
CNG ICE..............................391
Diesel ICE............................386
Renewable diesel-soybean......92
Electricity EV U.S. Mix..........333
Electricity EV CA Mix............172
Electricity EV Coal................579
Electric EV NGCC.................243

http://www.plugincars.com/winning-coal-burning-electric-plants-vs-burning-gas-tailpipe-argument.html (http://www.plugincars.com/winning-coal-burning-electric-plants-vs-burning-gas-tailpipe-argument.html)

http://greet.es.anl.gov/results (http://greet.es.anl.gov/results)

Too bad they didn't calculate EV running on wind and solar.  That, IMHO, is where we are heading.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 31, 2014, 09:03:26 PM
Bob, that is an impressive spread sheet. Unfortunately, I did not get it - I could not compare any number to the other study I did link above. Maybe you can help me:

In the link I did provide they say for the electric car: 100 g/km in todays German grid (that is 160 g/mile)

And for the combustion car they say 200 g/km (that is 320 g/mile).
There must be included a lot of extra-stuff since the average of all new cars last year was at this place: 130 g/km (208 g/mile) - not so far from the electric car.

So an electric car would be a bit better than the average car last year in Germany... Something must be wrong - the "hidden energy" maybe.

But now compare that to an efficient combustion car, e.g. the VW Polo Diesel blue motion: 82 g/km (132 g/mile) - hard to beat with our in average still 25% renewables grid...

Furthermore they compare the emission to produce the battery/electro motor (3 t, metric) with the 
the emission to produce the diesel engine (0.3t, metric).

They conclude: after 27,000 km the electric is better (than the 200 g/km combustion).

I would conclude: The electric car can not beat last years average car and has zero chance against an efficient diesel (82 g/km) in the next 10 years...

What do you think do I miss?
Thanks for any help.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 09:27:20 PM

Let me start by copying the numbers that Plug In Cars published...

Everything is, I  think, in grams  of CO2 equivalent per mile.

Conventional ICE gasoline......451
HEV gasoline........................323
FFV corn ethanol E85............371
FFV switchgrass E85............119
CNG ICE..............................391
Diesel ICE............................386
Renewable diesel-soybean......92
Electricity EV U.S. Mix..........333
Electricity EV CA Mix............172
Electricity EV Coal................579
Electric EV NGCC.................243

Then yours...

Electricity EV German Mix..........160
Combustion Car ...............320
Average of All New Cars........208
 VW Polo Diesel Blue Motion........132

That right?

EV on CA and German grids are about the same (172 and 160). 

Average of all new cars is 208, higher than 172 and 160.  And the 172/160 numbers will drop as grids transition to more renewables.

Plug In is using US cars which are not as efficient as European cars.  And data from 2012, which might make a difference.   The 451/208 difference is not surprising.  Our fleet mileage in 2012 was probably below 25 MPG.

VW Polo at 132 is cleaner than an EV on CA and German grids.  Of course that's the absolutely cleanest sold ICEV that we know about.  And we're comparing it to grids which aren't the cleanest we have.

How about all the countries that have very clean grids?  If we're going to compare to the best ICEV shouldn't we also use EVs on the cleanest grids?  Best:Best.

There are at least 17 countries with 90% renewable grids and about half a dozen with 100% renewable grids.

http://k.lenz.name/LB/?p=6525 (http://k.lenz.name/LB/?p=6525)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 31, 2014, 09:52:39 PM
Thank you, Bob.

So if you think that is clear I would agree.

So the 2.7t extra CO2 for the battery results in 2.7t/40g=67.500 miles, after wich the electric car gets parity with the average combustion car. It is hard to convince the neighbour to pay the extra money - especially since less extra money is needed to buy that most efficient diesel car. The only other solution is to move to Norway to seriously buy an electric car...

But you are right that the things will get better - soon we will have 50% renewables in the grid and batteries will get cheaper = less energy will be necessary (It is quite save to equal price with emission these days - since most income is spend in things made using energy). But for the next 10 years - let us go with the diesel to save a bit.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 10:09:36 PM
Few people are going to purchase based on CO2, at least that will only very rarely be the primary consideration.  I would think that most people would look at a five year period during which the EV catches up and then passes the ICEV as a "so what?".  Overall the EV is better, just not during the first quarter/third of operation.

I think most "green" people are going to look at whether the car is among the greenest but look mostly at price and cost of operation.  With the sort of fuel prices one finds in Europe I would think EVs would look very attractive. 

How does the German/European math work?  What's the cost to purchase and the cost per mile for a  Polo and Leaf?

In the US prices are somewhat distorted by the federal and state subsidies.  The Leaf, after subsidy is $21,480.  The Prius, our highest (I think) MPG car is $24,200.  It costs about 4 cents per mile to operate a Leaf on 12 cent/kWh electricity.  It costs about 7 cents to fuel a Prius on $3.59/gallon gas.

My guess is that by the time Nissan runs through it's 200k car subsidy allowance they will be able to lower the price to match or better the cost of a Prius. 

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 31, 2014, 11:17:51 PM
Bob,

the calculation of the cost is even worse than the calculation of the emission (since here is no subsidy for cars - only for electricity produced by renewables in the grid. But we have significant tax on petrol and a bit less on diesel):

To cite again the same German study linked above:

electrical car:
price for the car: 28,000 € (10,000 € motor & battery) = 37,000 US $
energy cost: 4 ct/km = 8 US ct/mile

last years average combustion car:
price for the car: 20,000 € (2,000 € motor) = 26,000 US $
energy cost: 9 ct/km (19 US ct/mile)

it takes 100,000 miles to get parity for the electrical car.

VW Polo diesel blue motion 1.4 TDi:
price for the car: 17,500 € (+ cost for extras...)
energy price (1,4€/l=7 US $/gallone ): 4 ct/km = 8 US ct/mile

That Polo clearly wins in the category reason. But it is a small car and poeple prefer bigger premium cars... maybe the new BMW i3/i8 will be sexy enough for our customers.

edit: just googled the price for a Nissan Leaf here: starting at 23,790 €= 31,300 US $...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on August 31, 2014, 11:26:06 PM
If it's a 10 year break even then EV sales are likely to stay low until prices come down.

We're likely talking short years so I'm not worrying about it.  Between what Tesla is about to do in the US and what China seems to be doing we're likely to see much improved prices very soon.

European manufacturers are likely to see themselves squeezed from two directions.  They'll also have to get serious about cost cuts.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 01, 2014, 10:01:33 AM
European manufacturers are likely to see themselves squeezed from two directions.  They'll also have to get serious about cost cuts.
Yes Bob, I am also a bit worried, what German engineers would do in future if not making combustion engines anymore...

But the prices here are ok and will rise further - Europe is ahead of USA in this respect: The most fair/easy/convincing way to reduce emissions is to increase the prices for energy consumption - e.g. for private mobility by taxes and such. I am sure USA will follow this road once it seriously starts to reduce emissions.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on September 01, 2014, 05:38:32 PM
"The most fair/easy/convincing way to reduce emissions is to increase the prices for energy consumption"

Well...it may perhaps be the easiest way (we can debate that separately), but I don't see how you can claim it is the fairest. It means that it will be a relatively painless for the rich, but very hard on the poor. It is economic rationing. Kind of the opposite of, for example, progressive taxation.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 01, 2014, 07:44:10 PM
It is extremely difficult to raise taxes at the federal level in the US.  And will likely be for a few more years.  And wili''s got it right.  A consumption tax is not progressive and puts a lot of burden on those who are having a hard time with their budgets.

I really think we, and the rest of the world, will reduce carbon use simply because going carbon-free is cheaper.  It's cheaper to make electricity with wind turbines and solar panels than with coal.  It's cheaper to drive an electric vehicle than an oil powered vehicle.

I'd like to see taxes on carbon, that would drive the transition faster and we do need faster.  But I think we'll hit the IPCC 40% to 70% reduction window with just 'cost of energy' forces operating.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 01, 2014, 08:53:28 PM
a progressive carbon tax? A progressive tax at the gasoline station and at the car shop? Sounds crazy to me - but why not. One must feel the price for energy - and rich poeple need more to get the feeling ;-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on September 01, 2014, 09:21:43 PM
In terms of the US alone - miles driven is falling and PBO negotiated much improved fleet mileage requirements, doubling them over a relatively short period.  Those two things are likely moving US oil use downward at an acceptable pace.

What's likely to create a huge drop in oil usage is the introduction of 150-200 mile range EVs for less than $30k.  A carbon tax on oil would suppress oil usage some but give people an affordable to purchase option that cuts operation costs 3x per miles and oil use will plummet.

Again, increasing the tax on fuel in order to lower consumption it pretty much impossible in the US.  We can't seem to increase the fuel tax a bit in order to pay for road repairs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on September 02, 2014, 04:59:21 AM
"rich poeple need more to get the feeling"

Exactly.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on September 02, 2014, 02:52:40 PM
"Exactly"

Their chewing gum lost it's flavour on the bed-post overnight...
... So they need more gum.

"My jaws a stuck together ... I can't open my mouth anymore ... I cmphcmphcmphcmph..."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on September 12, 2014, 07:13:19 PM
Electric Formula E car gets Donington Park outing
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28154020 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-28154020)

The Voice of Bart Simpson Wants You to Check Out Electric Cars Next Week
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/the-voice-of-bart-simpson_b_5810548.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/the-voice-of-bart-simpson_b_5810548.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2014, 08:06:21 PM
Kia will have an EV version of their Soul model out this fall in California, nationally in 2015. 
... Kia!!

http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos-kia-pricing-soul-ev-20140911-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-autos-kia-pricing-soul-ev-20140911-story.html)

http://www.kiamedia.com/us/en/media/pressreleases/9383/2015-kia-soul-ev-pricing-announced (http://www.kiamedia.com/us/en/media/pressreleases/9383/2015-kia-soul-ev-pricing-announced)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2014, 08:24:46 PM
Sir Richard Branson is tackling the unsexy job of making the trucking industry more fuel efficient, cutting fuel costs by 30%.  Estimates are the US alone has 2 million tractor-trailers.

The website Truckingefficiency.org features many different technologies.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021428 (http://www.cnbc.com/id/102021428)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on September 29, 2014, 11:10:23 AM
3D printed car.
https://localmotors.com/ (https://localmotors.com/)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daioWlkH7ZI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daioWlkH7ZI)

Google wish to reduce the size of the power inverter.
https://www.littleboxchallenge.com/ (https://www.littleboxchallenge.com/)

Something unusual.
http://www.movpak.com/ (http://www.movpak.com/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 08, 2014, 10:19:23 PM
Planes. 
Boeing responds to protesters at the South by Southwest Eco gathering -- but there's really nothing in the immediate offing to markedly reduce emissions except... not flying.

http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/oct/08/boeing-biofuels-uae-peak-travel-airlines-sxsw-eco (http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2014/oct/08/boeing-biofuels-uae-peak-travel-airlines-sxsw-eco)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on December 08, 2014, 09:26:24 PM
Salt-Water Powered Car Gets Approval In Europe – Yes It’s Real
http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/09/27/salt-water-powered-car-gets-approval-in-europe-yes-its-real/ (http://www.collective-evolution.com/2014/09/27/salt-water-powered-car-gets-approval-in-europe-yes-its-real/)

What do you think ? I am puzzled...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jbatteen on December 09, 2014, 03:58:25 AM
Not real.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 09, 2014, 07:41:41 PM

What do you think ? I am puzzled...

Extremely skeptical.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2014, 12:49:38 AM
Another article on the "saltwater" car:
It’s a shame, then, that the makers of the Quant e-Sportlimousine had to put their amazing saltwater battery in a car that, should it ever hit the market, may cost about $1.7 million, making Tesla’s Model S luxury electric car look like a bargain at $70,000 to $95,000.
http://qz.com/261450/this-sports-car-runs-on-saltwater-but-its-no-threat-to-tesla/ (http://qz.com/261450/this-sports-car-runs-on-saltwater-but-its-no-threat-to-tesla/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2014, 08:01:20 PM
U.S. roads and bridges are in such bad shape -- and gas prices are currently so low -- that even Republican governors are considering increasing gasoline taxes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/highway-funds-so-low-in-states-that-even-republicans-seek-taxes.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-10/highway-funds-so-low-in-states-that-even-republicans-seek-taxes.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2014, 01:28:53 AM
More than half of Nissan Leaf EV owners in small UK survey insist they will never u-turn and buy conventional cars again
More than half of respondents said they would not go back to conventional cars, while 95 per cent said they were happy with the Leaf and would recommend it to a friend.

In addition, 93 per cent said they used the Leaf as their main family car, more than a third said they found no need to plan journeys ahead of time, and 89 per cent reported significant cost savings had resulted from running an electric car.
http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2386180/more-than-half-of-nissan-leaf-owners-insist-they-will-never-u-turn-and-buy-conventional-cars-again (http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2386180/more-than-half-of-nissan-leaf-owners-insist-they-will-never-u-turn-and-buy-conventional-cars-again)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2014, 09:21:14 PM
Low Crude Oil Prices Hammer Tesla?   Perhaps.
http://247wallst.com/autos/2014/12/13/low-crude-oil-prices-hammer-tesla/ (http://247wallst.com/autos/2014/12/13/low-crude-oil-prices-hammer-tesla/)

But I think they underestimate the reasons why someone buys a $75,000 car, regardless of the cost of gas.
When Elon Musk said drivers choose between "Sport" and "Insane" acceleration modes on the latest Tesla, he was not making a joke! 
Watch (90 second video):
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CIc7K5y-IJs (https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=CIc7K5y-IJs)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on December 17, 2014, 10:06:38 AM
Trailer Turtle English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpigWsmYY3A (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpigWsmYY3A)

The Turtle 1 is a concept car that was built within a three-month period, without a prearranged plan or design, using the strengths and possibilities of Suame Magazine.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 18, 2014, 06:57:49 PM
Toyota is betting on hydrogen fuel cell cars.  Musk calls them "fool cells."
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-17/toyota-embraces-fuel-cell-cars-for-post-gasoline-future (http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-17/toyota-embraces-fuel-cell-cars-for-post-gasoline-future)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 20, 2014, 03:23:54 PM
Think a big problem with EV's is: they take too long to charge on the road?  Tesla is testing battery swaps in "limited beta mode" between San Francisco and Los Angeles.  It's quicker than a gasoline fill-up.  And cheaper than a tank of premium gas.

http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/battery-swap-pilot-program)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 21, 2014, 07:21:55 PM
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic utilities sign letter encouraging EV adoption.
This week, 67 businesses and organizations sent a letter (PDF) to the governors and governors-elect of the 11 Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states urging them to take specific actions that will accelerate EV adoption. 

Notably, many businesses signed  the letter because they see a transition to EVs as a crucial way to spur domestic jobs and energy opportunities. Letter signers include the utilities National Grid and Con Edison because of the important intersection between EVs and electricity policies.
(My emphasis.)

Part of the letter:
Since EVs have little or no conventional tailpipe emissions, they can be a key component to improving health outcomes and reducing costs to treat illnesses caused or worsened by this pollution. EVs also have significant climate benefits. With the current electricity generation mix in the region, a car that only uses electricity from the grid will be responsible for 50-70 percent less greenhouse gas pollution than a comparable gasoline-only vehicle. As we shift to cleaner sources of electricity, public health and environmental benefits of EVs will only increase over time. This is a stark contrast to trends in the petroleum industry where dirtier oil sources are entering the market in increasing quantities.
http://sierraclub.org/compass/2014/12/dear-governors-electric-vehicle-policies-will-help-you-succeed (http://sierraclub.org/compass/2014/12/dear-governors-electric-vehicle-policies-will-help-you-succeed)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 21, 2014, 07:48:40 PM
EVs are a major new market for utilities.  They should more than replace the market lost to end-user storage and efficiency.

A few utilities are waking up to the potential.  SoCal Edison has put up $350 million to assist with the installation of 300,000 more charging outlets, mostly at workplaces and apartments.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 22, 2014, 04:09:20 PM
An interesting look at the reasons behind, and effects of, gasoline taxes in the US.  Given the current low oil prices, there is much talk of raising them.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-gas-taxes/2014/12/19/cca3bc00-808a-11e4-81fd-8c4814dfa9d7_story.html (http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-myths-about-gas-taxes/2014/12/19/cca3bc00-808a-11e4-81fd-8c4814dfa9d7_story.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2014, 09:49:07 PM
Paris plans to ban cars from its city center
http://grist.org/list/paris-plans-to-ban-cars-from-its-city-center/ (http://grist.org/list/paris-plans-to-ban-cars-from-its-city-center/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 24, 2014, 10:02:58 PM
Paris plans to ban cars from its city center
http://grist.org/list/paris-plans-to-ban-cars-from-its-city-center/ (http://grist.org/list/paris-plans-to-ban-cars-from-its-city-center/)

If she'd add 'free to ride' or cheap day pass electric shuttles to the list then she'd have a real winner.

Don't required people to go down the Metro and back up just to go from the Louvre to the Eiffel Tower.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on December 24, 2014, 11:10:04 PM
I don't get the impression that they are going to ban busses and shuttles, electric or otherwise. In any case, it is a very pleasant stroll of a couple miles (3.4 k to be precise) down the Seine to the Tower.

I like how they point out how much further ahead the Dutch are in this area. My daughter just came from there and was very enthusiastic.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2014, 12:30:18 AM
Battery, tire and aerodynamic upgrades now available for Tesla Roadster model will result in 400-mile potential range.  Non-stop drive from San Francisco to Los Angeles planned for early 2015.
http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/roadster-30 (http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/roadster-30)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 27, 2014, 12:44:16 AM
31% capacity improvement from the 2008 battery pack.

That's the sort of improvement we need.  Prices will fix themselves as volume increases.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2014, 01:51:27 AM
Another article on the Tesla Roadster upgrade concludes:
Suburban sprawl, and the increased driving and consumption that accompanies it, is a major contributor of the greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change. The sheer economics of pairing solar panels with electric vehicles could make the combination appealing to suburban dwellers on both sides of the political aisle. Mooney cites a new working paper by researchers at the UCLA Institute of the Environment which estimates that “for a household that buys an electric vehicle and also owns a solar panel system generating enough power for both the home and the electric car, the monthly cost might be just $89 per month — compared with $255 per month for a household driving a regular car without any solar panels.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3607003/tesla-announces-roadster-upgrade/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/12/26/3607003/tesla-announces-roadster-upgrade/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 27, 2014, 02:27:39 AM
Just came across this:
We find that powering vehicles with corn ethanol or with coal-based or “grid average” electricity increases monetized environmental health impacts by 80% or more relative to using conventional gasoline. Conversely, EVs powered by low-emitting electricity from natural gas, wind, water, or solar power reduce environmental health impacts by 50% or more. Consideration of potential climate change impacts alongside the human health outcomes described here further reinforces the environmental preferability of EVs powered by low-emitting electricity relative to gasoline vehicles.
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.abstract (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.abstract)
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.long (http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2014/12/10/1406853111.long)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on December 30, 2014, 01:04:16 PM
First "real electric car": http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/ (http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/)

For my feeling most commercial electric cars today are just "normal" cars with a substituted engine. Some are "life-style" cars (e.g. Tesla, Porsche 918 Spyder, BMW i) or marketing things (hybrides and such) to demonstrate political correct "pseudo-sustainability" without any heard. But missing was a new concept of cars concentrating on the advantage of electrical motors and optimizing sustainability.

Streetscouter is different: Cheap battery, 130 km range at max. 80 km/h - perfect for use in cities, which are the natural the habitat of electrical cars. Reduced to the important things to safe costs and resources (e.g. no expensive fast loading - people sleep at night anyway).

Now Post/DHL did invest in that: Delivery of parcels can be done perfectly with this car at lowest price. So this university spin-off company starts flying. http://www.dpdhl.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/deutsche_post_dhl_acquires_streetscooter_gmbh.html (http://www.dpdhl.com/en/media_relations/press_releases/2014/deutsche_post_dhl_acquires_streetscooter_gmbh.html)

What I think is missing is something like the following vision: This car is for the cities. But there is no chance to travel to other cities with this. Possible solutions:
1. Car sharing: You want to visit other cities but your car doesn't. So leave it in you home city and take another one elsewhere.
2. No 1 is not practicable if you want to go on holiday with your family e.g. in a house in Sweden - you have to carry a lot of stuff for your children and maybe you want to go there with your own property to avoid the cleaning of other peoples car after your children did what they do in cars...
Vision to address this: We have a railway station in the centre of each city and these stations are connected with 300 km/h trains. So why not enter with your electric car such fast train in your home town and leave the train in the centre of the city you want to be? Would be just perfect to start your holiday in the city centre with full powered battery... but that is just a nice dream today. What about your dreams?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on December 30, 2014, 07:54:22 PM
My vision is that we'll have 200 mile range EVs for about $35k before the end of 2017.  (I think there are now at least three manufacturers shooting for something around there.)

That, along with superchargers, and possibly battery swapping, will make it easy to travel 500 miles a day in about the same amount of time it takes to drive an ICEV.

Volume production will make EVs cheaper than same-model ICEVs.

Putting the batteries under the floorboard like Tesla has done will give us cars with vastly more usable room that what we're used to driving.  Plus the cars will be a lot safer and a lot more stable going around curves.

Within a few years our EVs will be charged almost totally with wind and solar "peak" electricity which will mean even cheaper operation per mile and much easier integration of renewables onto our grids.

I have another vision for a little further down the road.  I think we'll see small self-driving, lower speed (top 50 MPH/80 kmPH), small, very easy entry/exit cars dominating the middle areas of our larger cities.  Private cars may be rare - regulated out.  You'll simply hit a button on your phone screen and a car will meet you at the door and drive you to your destination.  People will park their personal cars outside of the 'downtown' area and transfer to a self-driver for the last mile.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on December 31, 2014, 12:38:55 AM
First "real electric car": http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/ (http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/)

For my feeling most commercial electric cars today are just "normal" cars with a substituted engine. Some are "life-style" cars (e.g. Tesla, Porsche 918 Spyder, BMW i) or marketing things (hybrides and such) to demonstrate political correct "pseudo-sustainability" without any heard. But missing was a new concept of cars concentrating on the advantage of electrical motors and optimizing sustainability.

Streetscouter is different: Cheap battery, 130 km range at max. 80 km/h - perfect for use in cities, which are the natural the habitat of electrical cars. Reduced to the important things to safe costs and resources (e.g. no expensive fast loading - people sleep at night anyway).

That's nice, and starts to look like something I'd want: a simple, light but sturdy EV, without any of the BS you see on the current EVs that are apparently needed for the EV breakthrough. Except for some way to play music and a bit of heating for when it's freezing, I'd want zero accessories, no screens in the car, no superfluous electronics, nothing that can break down. Simple, somewhat comfortable, lightweight, durable, 200 mile range would be great, no need to go faster than 70 miles an hour.

I fear this car will never be built, because of the lack of perceived and planned obsolescence. I might have to build it myself one day. But first I want to find out if I really need a car (24/7). I won't be having any money for anything the coming 3-5 years, anyhow.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on December 31, 2014, 01:13:37 AM
I might have to build it myself one day.
Neven, exactly that is the purpose this car was developed for. It can be produced by mid-sized companies in the one or the other individualized way. The "Work"-version is already in production for Post/DHL. The compact SDV (short distance vehicle) is about to be produced, as far as I know. It is just a matter of will since it is cost effective also in small quantities - the university people here in Aachen are experts in such individualized production in high wage countries. But the hope is, that some car manufacturer (e.g. from China?) jumps on this band wagon to build such <10k € electric car without any unnecessary life-style stuff. Our traditional German car industries still prefer to produce profitable image-cars instead...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 02:24:12 AM
Americans bought more than 30,000 Nissan Leafs in 2014, a yearly sales record that’s never before been reached by an electric plug-in vehicle.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/05/3607826/nissan-leaf-sales-record/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/05/3607826/nissan-leaf-sales-record/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 04:39:57 AM
California's Cap and Trade program now includes cars.
http://grist.org/news/californias-cap-and-trade-program-now-covers-cars/ (http://grist.org/news/californias-cap-and-trade-program-now-covers-cars/)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on January 06, 2015, 07:12:01 AM
that California program is big, will make impact
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 06, 2015, 05:27:46 PM
When thinking about the impact of ev sales and their effect on dealing with climate change (non-existent in fact) it pays to keep in mind how 'few' ev sales there are even after all these years. (I kind of recall getting a lot of grief over pointing out some time back that it would take a generation to convert from fossil fuel cars to ev's - it is interesting to see we are still on the track I described). 

To be US centric for a minute.

Total ev sales in the US were right at 100,000 for 2014.  Total sales in the US were near 15 million.  This means that ev's made up about 1/150th of the market.  This is not significant and has no meaningful impact.  Sales for 2015 are projected to be near 17 million and with the fall in gas prices the consumer is not rushing to ev's but towards the big suv's and light trucks as always.  Thus baking into the cake the 10 or so years of emissions from those large vehicles.  As long as fuel prices remain low this situation will persist.

Even if ev sales rose 50% next year they would amount to less than 1% of sales. 

And it is worth pointing out that many ev's are being powered by coal generated electricity and the owners in those areas would be doing us a service to switch back to fuel efficient gasoline cars.

Cars of any kind are not the answer.  No cars is the answer.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Yuha on January 06, 2015, 11:15:54 PM
A major leap in EV batteries could be close.
http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/battery-breakthrough-nissan-poised-take-range-off-table/ (http://dailykanban.com/2014/12/battery-breakthrough-nissan-poised-take-range-off-table/)

“Commercial applications could be no more than one model cycle away,” said an engineer who is not supposed to talk to me. According to the source, the new battery delivers twice the capacity while weighing – and costing – less than the current shorter range model. In a prototype, Nissan’s Barcelona Technical Centre last year tested a 48 kWh battery, double the capacity of the Leaf’s 24kWh battery.

The above piece does not mention the technology but others are guessing lithium-sulfur.
http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21637344-adding-sulphur-electrical-cells-may-quintuple-their-performance-whiff (http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21637344-adding-sulphur-electrical-cells-may-quintuple-their-performance-whiff)

Indeed, lithium-sulfur has been considered closest to commercialization among experimental battery chemistries.
http://www.nature.com/news/the-rechargeable-revolution-a-better-battery-1.14815 (http://www.nature.com/news/the-rechargeable-revolution-a-better-battery-1.14815)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2015, 11:25:08 PM
The first all-electric, zero-emission car will participate in the grueling 9,000km Dakar cross-country race through Argentina, Bolovia, and Chile.  The 4 batteries will be replaced about every 350 km.
http://www.acciona.com/news/acciona-compete-dakar-rally-first-ever-zero-emission-electric-car (http://www.acciona.com/news/acciona-compete-dakar-rally-first-ever-zero-emission-electric-car)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 02:47:25 AM
Given all the phoning and texting and eating while driving today, this new autonomous, electric car cannot come soon enough.
Mercedes-Benz aims to transform the car into a rolling luxury lounge that chauffeurs passengers autonomously.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/mercedes-plots-turning-the-car-into-a-luxury-lounge.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-06/mercedes-plots-turning-the-car-into-a-luxury-lounge.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2015, 03:11:20 AM
And lest you think driverless cars will only be for the wealthy, Ford CEO Fields says: Our Driverless Cars Will Be Affordable.
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ford-ceo-fields-our-driverless-cars-will-be-affordable-tmBNbkOETtCNKyZgK4nv3w.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/video/ford-ceo-fields-our-driverless-cars-will-be-affordable-tmBNbkOETtCNKyZgK4nv3w.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on January 07, 2015, 03:14:14 AM
It will inevitably lead to more frequent car trips, so it is not really a step forward.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on January 07, 2015, 04:32:18 AM
unless they are electric
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on January 07, 2015, 04:13:23 PM
??

But then it's their being electric that saved energy, not their being driverless.

What ever activity you make more convenient to do, that activity will likely happen more.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2015, 05:28:58 PM
So, residential solar energy has to become very, very convenient. :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2015, 05:30:35 PM
What to look for in the next generation Nissan LEAF EV.
http://www.plugincars.com/five-critical-changes-next-nissan-leaf-130381.html (http://www.plugincars.com/five-critical-changes-next-nissan-leaf-130381.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 09, 2015, 06:42:26 PM
Feds Quietly Acknowledge the U.S. Driving Boom Is Over
After many years of aggressively and inaccurately claiming that Americans would likely begin a new era of rapid driving growth, the agency’s more recent forecast finally recognizes that the protracted post-World War II era has given way to a different paradigm.
...
For U.S. DOT to embrace a future less dominated by driving, it first must recognize when change has occurred and that a different trajectory is possible. Quiet and incremental as the current changes may be, they represent a profound step in the right direction.
http://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/01/07/the-feds-quietly-acknowledge-the-driving-boom-is-over/ (http://usa.streetsblog.org/2015/01/07/the-feds-quietly-acknowledge-the-driving-boom-is-over/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 11, 2015, 04:23:09 PM
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/subprime-spikes-auto-sales-delinquencies-soar-industry-total-denial-fallout-hit-main-street.html (http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/01/subprime-spikes-auto-sales-delinquencies-soar-industry-total-denial-fallout-hit-main-street.html)

What could go wrong?

New vehicle sales in the US have been on a tear in 2014, rising 5.6% to 16.5 million units, the highest since banner year 2006. Light-truck sales jumped 10%, cars edged up 1.8%. The industry is drunk with its own enthusiasm.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra sees “still plenty of room for the auto industry to grow.” She rattled off politically correct reasons: consumers who’re “feeling pretty good about the future,” due to “the strength of the labor market, better job security and the recovery in home prices,” topped off by the “sharp drop in fuel prices and rising incomes,” possibly confusing them with her rising income.

So sales could hit 17 million in 2015, she said in the statement. It would take the industry back to the car-glory days of 2001. It’s going to be younger buyers – the Holy Grail of everyone. They’re not just moving out of their parents’ homes, where they’ve been holed up for years because they can’t afford the soaring rents or home prices, but now they’re also going to splurge on a set of wheels. Because it’s a great time to buy.

Interest rates for six-year new-car loans are as low as 2.75%, according to Bankrate.com. Loan terms can be stretched to seven years, to where these younger buyers will be awfully close to middle-age before they finally get out from under it. Loan-to-Value ratios have soared well past 100%; everything can be plowed into the loan: title, taxes, license fees, cash-back, and the amount buyers are upside-down in their trade. The package is governed by loosey-goosey lending standards. Bad credit, no problem.

And that’s exactly the problem.

Over 8.4% of subprime auto loans taken out in the first quarter of 2014 were already delinquent by November, according to an analysis of Equifax data by Moody’s Analytics for the Wall Street Journal. That’s the highest rate of early subprime delinquencies since Financial-Crisis year 2008.

Stuffing people into cars they can’t afford and ultimately may not be able to pay for is big business. Auto loans to subprime borrowers (credit scores below 640) make up over 31% of all auto loans, according to Equifax. Outstanding loan balances have soared nearly 17% over the last two years. At this rate, they’ll breach the $1-trillion mark by the end of the first quarter this year.

In broader terms, 2.6% of the auto loans taken out in Q1 2014 were delinquent by November, the highest rate of early delinquencies since crisis-year 2008, when they rose above 3%.

The bailed-out former auto lending unit of bailed out GM, Ally Financial, now the largest non-captive auto lender, reported $355 million in nonperforming auto loans in Q3 2014, up 8% from a year earlier. And during the first three quarters, it charged off as uncollectible $341 million, up 18% from the prior year.

Santander, one of the top 15 auto lenders in the US, discovered that it’s overall auto-loan delinquency rate in Q3 was a vertigo-inducing 16.7%, highest in the nation, followed by Capital One’s delinquency rate of 6.6%.

But there’s nothing to worry about.........
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2015, 03:06:51 PM
General Motors (!):  $30,000 battery-powered family car with 200-mile range, to be called the Chevrolet Bolt.  Sometime in 2017.
GM has invested millions in developing electric cars starting with the EV1 in the 1990s. It doubled the size of its battery testing lab at a technical center in suburban Warren, Michigan, to 100,000 square feet in 2013, allowing it to test batteries and controls faster. It took about four years for GM to develop the Volt and bring it to market.
http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/1189678-chevrolet-bolt-gm-plans-affordable-200-mile-electric-car-in-2017/ (http://m.theepochtimes.com/n3/1189678-chevrolet-bolt-gm-plans-affordable-200-mile-electric-car-in-2017/)

(If gas prices stay low, more people will have more money, and consumer sentiment will be positive, propelling more spending on new cars with new technology.  If gas prices rise, people tired of the gas price game will take a closer look at alternatives. Plus: it's GM!)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 12, 2015, 05:40:18 PM

(If gas prices stay low, more people will have more money, and consumer sentiment will be positive, propelling more spending on new cars with new technology.  If gas prices rise, people tired of the gas price game will take a closer look at alternatives. Plus: it's GM!)

Hmm.  Gas prices have been down for less than 2 months and we have seen a 10+% jump in gas guzzeling pickups and big suv's.  Just the increased number of those vehicles exceeds the total number of all ev's sold in the US over the entire year by several times.  And given that each one of those vehicles has a carbon footprint at least a few times higher than an ev we have lost significant ground (by the standards you are counting from).  The longer gas prices stay down the more the above effect will permeate. 

High gas prices are good for ev sales not low gas prices.

And I throw in my usual point.  EV's are not the answer to the car problem.  Getting rid of cars is the answer to the car problem.  EV's just extend BAU.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on January 14, 2015, 09:02:54 PM
Why Tesla Stock Is Plummeting Right Now
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/14/tesla-stock_n_6471698.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/01/14/tesla-stock_n_6471698.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2015, 10:15:04 PM
Great press Q&A with Elon Musk on the future of Tesla and electric cars.  (He expects profitability around 2020, given the economies of scale with the mass-marketed Tesla.)
Lots of great quotes, like:  I don't care if they say we will fail.  We're still going to do it.

On autonomous cars:  We don't want two-ton death-bots roaming the streets.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/video-mister-musk-goes-to-detroit-presses-automakers-to-get-serious-about-evs// (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/video-mister-musk-goes-to-detroit-presses-automakers-to-get-serious-about-evs//)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 17, 2015, 04:18:15 AM
"Former GM Exec Bob Lutz Insists That Electrification Is The Future"

(But, really, he needs to talk to Elon Musk about batteries.  Elon says he will share....)

http://gmauthority.com/blog/2015/01/former-gm-exec-bob-lutz-insists-that-electrification-is-the-future/ (http://gmauthority.com/blog/2015/01/former-gm-exec-bob-lutz-insists-that-electrification-is-the-future/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2015, 07:19:35 PM
Nissan LEAF sales in Europe jumped 33% in 2014.  Over 56,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were purchased there last year.
"We can now see the impact that word of mouth is having on our sales, with 95 per cent of our customers happy to recommend their car to a friend and 50 per cent saying they would never go back to diesel or petrol," said Nissan Europe senior vice president of sales and marketing Guillaume Cartier, in a statement. "This kind of powerful advocacy, combined with an increasing awareness of the massive running cost savings electric car drivers experience, is why our Nissan Leaf sales continue to grow."
http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2390949/nissan-leaf-enjoys-33-per-cent-european-sales-boost (http://m.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2390949/nissan-leaf-enjoys-33-per-cent-european-sales-boost)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Clare on January 21, 2015, 02:47:03 AM
I certainly agree with this!
""Hmm.  Gas prices have been down for less than 2 months and we have seen a 10+% jump in gas guzzeling pickups and big suv's.  Just the increased number of those vehicles exceeds the total number of all ev's sold in the US over the entire year by several times.  And given that each one of those vehicles has a carbon footprint at least a few times higher than an ev we have lost significant ground (by the standards you are counting from).  The longer gas prices stay down the more the above effect will permeate. 

High gas prices are good for ev sales not low gas prices.

And I throw in my usual point.  EV's are not the answer to the car problem.  Getting rid of cars is the answer to the car problem.  EV's just extend BAU.""
[/quote]


But just some thoughts on cars, oil etc:
My half brother sent me a copy of this (it is from May last year), these look like v large stockpiles to me!:
http://www.vincelewis.net/unsoldcars.html (http://www.vincelewis.net/unsoldcars.html)

Maybe there is a benefit to the environment of a LOW price for oil?? I never thought this might be possible tho' in my neighbourhood Tag oil have deferred their testing & hopefully the oil company planning seismic testing due to be done at the edge of town (we are riddled with faultlines here, have enough quakes as it is! = Napier NZ). So that is a relief, will buy 'us' some time.... or maybe people will just use more now? :-(
http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/blog/deepwater-drilling-in-new-zealand-in-deep-tro/blog/51865/ (http://www.greenpeace.org/new-zealand/en/blog/deepwater-drilling-in-new-zealand-in-deep-tro/blog/51865/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2015, 12:22:56 AM
Energy Department Announces $55 Million In Grants For Fuel-Efficient plug-in electric and fuel-powered Car Research
Low gas prices helped boost SUV sales in December, but these low prices also make it a good time to buy an electric car.

“Fuel savings are not top of mind to many consumers right now, and that makes this a great time to buy a hybrid or electric vehicle,” John Krafcik, president of TrueCar, said in a statement. “With gasoline prices now averaging just $2.10 per gallon, and vehicle preferences tied so closely to short-term gasoline prices, automakers are heavily discounting their most fuel-efficient cars to clear inventories.”
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/23/3614792/energy-dept-efficient-car-grants/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/01/23/3614792/energy-dept-efficient-car-grants/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2015, 02:40:36 AM
A multiple-EV owner believes he knows why EVs will succeed:
The one thing I keep circling back to when people ask whether or not electric vehicles will have staying power or if they are only passing fad is the owner loyalty. The vast majority of electric vehicle owners love their cars and vow to never go back to gas. People love driving electric because it’s better. That’s the real reason EVs are here to stay. It isn’t the governmental incentives, the fact that they are cleaner, or are cheaper to operate. The real reason EVs will win in the long run is that they offer a better driving experience. People love driving them, it’s really that simple. The high cost of batteries, the need for a robust fast charge infrastructure and the inertia of the status quo are all just temporary obstacles that will be solved in the coming years.
http://insideevs.com/157000-electric-miles-driven-look-back-forward-future/ (http://insideevs.com/157000-electric-miles-driven-look-back-forward-future/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 24, 2015, 04:11:35 AM
This is why EVs will ultimately succeed.  Not because of tree-huggers or climate change, and despite the (temporary) price premium, and low gas prices, and limited fast-charging infrastructure.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YvwYLIOQiK8

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LoFVO31CbE0
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2015, 02:35:34 AM
In 2014, One Out Of Every 8 Cars Registered In Norway Was All-Electric (18,017 Total)
http://insideevs.com/in-2014-one-out-of-every-8-cars-registered-in-norway-was-all-electric-18017-total/ (http://insideevs.com/in-2014-one-out-of-every-8-cars-registered-in-norway-was-all-electric-18017-total/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 30, 2015, 12:17:43 AM
More on the Paris ban of diesel trucks and buses.
Homeowners’ co-operatives that exist in almost every Parisian apartment block will also be encouraged to invest in electric car-charging points and secure bike shelters.
http://m.france24.com/en/20150128-paris-ban-most-polluting-diesel-vehicles-july-2015/ (http://m.france24.com/en/20150128-paris-ban-most-polluting-diesel-vehicles-july-2015/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2015, 05:15:38 PM
Mayor Boris Johnson gives go-ahead for 'Crossrail' cycle superhighway through central London
Mr Johnson was keen to reallocate space on central London roads in response to their changing use - the amount of vehicle traffic has fallen by 25 per cent in the last decade while the number of cyclists has doubled. Cyclists now account for a quarter of all traffic in central London in the morning rush hour.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boris-johnson-gives-goahead-for-crossrail-cycle-superhighway-through-central-london-10004550.html (http://www.standard.co.uk/news/transport/boris-johnson-gives-goahead-for-crossrail-cycle-superhighway-through-central-london-10004550.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 06, 2015, 09:49:24 PM
The Tesla battery gigafactory being built in Nevada: Powered by renewable energy.  Net zero energy factory.
But what about water?

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-gigafactory-water-worries/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-gigafactory-water-worries/)


(If you are interested in EVs:  ChargedEVs.com and their Facebook page "CHARGED Electric Vehicles Magazine" are chock full of good stuff.  Also Twitter: @ChargedEVs. )
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2015, 06:07:58 PM
... And ships.

Oops:
China’s seaborne coal imports slid 10 percent in 2014, reversing growth of 16 percent the year before, according to Clarkson Plc, the world’s largest shipbroker. The Chinese economy, which buys almost half the world’s coal and ore cargoes, will grow in 2015 at the slowest pace in 25 years, economists’ forecasts compiled by Bloomberg show.
...
Ship owners ordered three-times more dry bulk ships in 2013 than a year earlier in expectation of growing coal demand in China, according to Jeffrey Landsberg, managing director of Commodore Research, a New York-based adviser to ship owners. Those vessels are now being delivered to the market and competing for cargoes, driving rates down.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/shipping-index-matches-record-low-as-coal-slump-heightens-glut (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-09/shipping-index-matches-record-low-as-coal-slump-heightens-glut)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 10, 2015, 03:35:19 AM
California utility PG&E to build 25,000 Public EV charging stations.
http://www.plugincars.com/pge-will-build-and-own-25000-ev-chargers-130503.html (http://www.plugincars.com/pge-will-build-and-own-25000-ev-chargers-130503.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2015, 07:22:20 PM
Posting this new book review for those who may be interested.  "Clean Disruption" by Tony Seba.

Seba’s thesis is that several technological trends – renewable energy, energy storage, EVs and autonomous vehicles – are converging and reinforcing one another, which will lead to the disruption of the existing oil and electric utility industries. We’ll make the transition to clean energy not because it’s the right thing to do, or because Big Brother forces us to, but rather for the same reasons we went from sail to steam, from horses to internal combustion – because the new technology is better, and – eventually – much, much cheaper.

And get this: it will all be over by 2030. Yes, that one made me shake my head at first, but after reading about the case studies Mr Seba presents, and the parallels he draws with earlier technological shifts, I’m a hopeful believer.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/new-book-predicts-the-demise-of-the-oil-economy-by-2030/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/new-book-predicts-the-demise-of-the-oil-economy-by-2030/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2015, 07:27:08 PM
Growing pains for London's EV charging infrastructure.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/london-charging-network-in-a-muddle-as-stakeholders-squabble/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/london-charging-network-in-a-muddle-as-stakeholders-squabble/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2015, 06:42:19 PM
...and buses! Electric buses are being funded for ten US cities.  Many are replacing diesel models.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/30-million-in-federal-grants-to-pay-for-proterra-electric-buses/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/30-million-in-federal-grants-to-pay-for-proterra-electric-buses/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2015, 01:23:25 AM
Why would you do that?
Sorry, hydrogen fans.  "Elon Musk Is Right: Hydrogen Is ‘An Incredibly Dumb’ Car Fuel."
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/12/3621136/tesla-elon-musk-hydrogen-dumb/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/02/12/3621136/tesla-elon-musk-hydrogen-dumb/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 02:13:49 AM
iCar?  Apple Is Working on an Electric Car, WSJ Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-14/apple-working-on-electric-car-to-challenge-tesla-wsj-reports (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-14/apple-working-on-electric-car-to-challenge-tesla-wsj-reports)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 02:21:01 AM
EV-charging etiquette.  Don't hog the charging spots, and never unplug a car without permission.
http://www.electriccarpledge.com/electric-vehicle-charging-hang-tags (http://www.electriccarpledge.com/electric-vehicle-charging-hang-tags)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 14, 2015, 04:33:53 PM
This is very telling.

Is There an Auto Bubble?
7 FEB 13, 2015 2:24 PM EST
By Mark Whitehouse
For all the progress the U.S. economy has been making, a nagging question comes up from time to time: Might the growth be a bit too dependent on credit-fueled auto sales?

, that auto lending has been rising most sharply in the same U.S. zip codes that experienced the highest default rates during the mortgage bust -- and that the lending appears to be having as powerful an effect on auto sales as mortgage credit did on appliances, furniture and home improvement before the 2008 recession.

So how big of a deal might this be? The latest retail sales data from the Census Bureau offer a clue: As of January, automobiles and other motor vehicles accounted for 20.5 percent of total retail sales.

Maybe this does not have the dire indications that the housing bubble had but it sure shows how weak the economy really is. 

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/is-there-an-auto-bubble- (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-13/is-there-an-auto-bubble-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 14, 2015, 08:04:18 PM
Japan now has more car chargers then gas stations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/japan-has-more-car-chargers-than-gas-stations-carbon-climate (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-13/japan-has-more-car-chargers-than-gas-stations-carbon-climate)

Plugshare.com lists chargers in private homes of people willing to share.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2015, 05:39:08 PM
How Many Electric Cars Do We Need to Save the Planet?
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/how-many-electric-cars-do_b_6707170.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/gina-coplonnewfield/how-many-electric-cars-do_b_6707170.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 04:10:14 AM
Apple Inc., which has been working secretly on a car, is pushing its team to begin production of an electric vehicle as early as 2020, people with knowledge of the matter said.

The timeframe -- automakers typically spend five to seven years developing a car -- underscores the project’s aggressive goals and could set the stage for a battle for customers with Tesla Motors Inc. and General Motors Co., both of which are targeting a 2017 release of an electric vehicle that can go more than 200 miles on a single charge and cost less than $40,000.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/apple-said-to-be-targeting-car-production-as-soon-as-2020 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-19/apple-said-to-be-targeting-car-production-as-soon-as-2020)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2015, 07:25:09 PM
Ethiopia is building a train system to be run on renewables, including community planning and assessing vulnerability to climate change.
http://namanews.org/news/2015/02/18/its-full-steam-ahead-for-ethiopian-railways-corporation/ (http://namanews.org/news/2015/02/18/its-full-steam-ahead-for-ethiopian-railways-corporation/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 21, 2015, 12:01:21 AM
Utilities push into fuel stations for electric cars.
Utilities could benefit not only from increased electricity sales but also by investing in building the underlying infrastructure, on which they earn a set return recovered through customer rates. In addition to that, executives said, passenger cars sucking up power at public stations during the day could absorb excess electricity flowing from the solar farms that are increasingly coming online.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/business/utilities-push-into-fuel-stations-for-electric-cars.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/20/business/utilities-push-into-fuel-stations-for-electric-cars.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 24, 2015, 09:48:19 PM
Formula E electric race car circuit: "showcase the power of electric vehicles and spread awareness about sustainability."
http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/london-to-host-two-final-races-of-formula-e-debut-championship/ (http://www.theclimategroup.org/what-we-do/news-and-blogs/london-to-host-two-final-races-of-formula-e-debut-championship/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 25, 2015, 02:40:30 AM
Here's a good one:
Exxon Mobil Entering The EV Charging Game

http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2015/02/exxon-mobil-entering-ev-charging-game.html (http://carswithcords.blogspot.com/2015/02/exxon-mobil-entering-ev-charging-game.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2015, 02:49:22 AM
... and planes:
The U.S. Just Got One Step Closer To Regulating Airplane Carbon Emissions.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/03/3629070/airplane-regulations-clearing-for-takeoff/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/03/3629070/airplane-regulations-clearing-for-takeoff/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2015, 05:16:09 PM
... and solar planes.
Si-2 will fly day and night, and land in 12 locations across the world in its five-month-long journey to promote renewable energy. They will travel 35,000 kilometres in the first attempt to fly around the globe without using a drop of fuel.
...
Si2 has used many innovative technologies that can improve people’s lives in many sectors. The technology used for building the cockpit can triple the capacity of refrigerators. Lighting of the flight is the most energy-efficient technology.
http://gulfnews.com/life-style/environment/first-global-solar-flight-plans-to-take-off-on-saturday-1.1465379 (http://gulfnews.com/life-style/environment/first-global-solar-flight-plans-to-take-off-on-saturday-1.1465379)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 04, 2015, 09:31:22 PM
The UK government has announced £32 million ($49 million) in new funding for EV infrastructure, to support “the fast-growing popularity of plug-in vehicles.” The announcement noted that claims for government grants to plug-in buyers increased fourfold in 2014.
...
An additional £11 million of funding has been announced for R&D in low-emission vehicle technology. The 15 supported projects include: the creation of a new recycled carbon fiber material; development of a fuel cell range-extended electric bus; and a prototype zero-emission power and cooling system for refrigerated trucks and air-conditioned buses.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/uk-government-to-invest-32-million-in-ev-infrastructure-11-million-in-rd/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/uk-government-to-invest-32-million-in-ev-infrastructure-11-million-in-rd/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 05, 2015, 09:24:18 PM
Lots of plug-in cars at the Geneva car show.
Also in the “interesting” category: a concept tire from Goodyear that’s designed to use heat generated while driving to recharge an EV’s battery. “This tire generates electricity through the action of materials in the tire that capture and transform the energy created by heat when it flexes as it rolls during normal driving conditions.”
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/the-vehicles/a-plethora-of-plug-ins-at-the-geneva-auto-salon/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/the-vehicles/a-plethora-of-plug-ins-at-the-geneva-auto-salon/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 07, 2015, 01:46:44 PM
Use of Solar Powered Electric Vehicle Charging Stations at San Diego Zoo on the Rise
http://cleantechsandiego.org/use-solar-powered-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-san-diego-zoo-rise/ (http://cleantechsandiego.org/use-solar-powered-electric-vehicle-charging-stations-san-diego-zoo-rise/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 10, 2015, 01:22:23 AM
The first solar-powered flight around the world just took off.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/09/3631327/solar-powered-airplane-flying-around-the-world/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/03/09/3631327/solar-powered-airplane-flying-around-the-world/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 10, 2015, 02:09:16 AM
Soon, autonomous vehicles will reduce the need for multiple (family) cars.
Without the need for a human at the helm, one autonomous vehicle could take the place of two conventional vehicles: If Joan is going golfing and Joe needs to go shopping, a single car could drop Joan off at the club, swing back to the house to take Joe to the supermarket and back, then return to the club and get Joan.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/09/self_driving_cars_will_revolutionize_economy_mckinsey_company_report_shows.html (http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2015/03/09/self_driving_cars_will_revolutionize_economy_mckinsey_company_report_shows.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Bob Wallace on March 10, 2015, 02:25:44 AM
Some pictures of the Mercedes self-driving car in the SF area.

It may or may not have been driving itself a bit.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/09/mercedes-driverless-car-san-francisco_n_6833248.html (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/09/mercedes-driverless-car-san-francisco_n_6833248.html)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 10, 2015, 04:30:45 PM
So far, so good.
Short video at the bottom of the article has some nice shots of the plane's exterior.

After a Quick 'Pit Stop,' Solar Impulse Plane Moves On to India
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/after-pit-stop-solar-impulse-plane-moves-india-n320436 (http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/innovation/after-pit-stop-solar-impulse-plane-moves-india-n320436)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 11, 2015, 08:04:27 PM
Study shows an electric car boom in the UK would have significant benefits.  But most drivers are not ready to take the plunge just yet.
Electric cars could cut the UK’s oil imports by 40% and reduce drivers’ fuel bills by £13bn if deployed on a large scale, according to a new study.

An electric vehicle surge would deliver an average £1,000 of fuel savings a year per driver, and spark a 47% drop in carbon emissions by 2030, said the Cambridge Econometrics study.

The paper, commissioned by the European Climate Foundation, said that air pollutants such as nitrogen oxide and particulates would be all but eliminated by mid-century, with knock-on health benefits from reduced respiratory diseases valued at over £1bn.

But....
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/electric-cars-could-cut-oil-imports-40-by-2030 (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/mar/10/electric-cars-could-cut-oil-imports-40-by-2030)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2015, 01:29:31 PM
Another method to increase electric car range.  :)

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/09/autos/goodyear-electric-tires/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/09/autos/goodyear-electric-tires/index.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 16, 2015, 10:43:25 PM
Helping expand EV access to another population segment: apartment dwellers.

eVgo is currently offering charging station installation at no cost to qualified apartment communities in California.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/nrg-evgo-launches-program-to-help-renters-charge-evs/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/nrg-evgo-launches-program-to-help-renters-charge-evs/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2015, 05:32:06 PM
Tesla sales ban in New jersey overturned!  For those of you keeping track, it’s still banned from doing so in Virginia, Arizona, Texas and Michigan.

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-sales-resume-in-new-jersey-as-governor-signs-bill-allowing-direct-sales/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-sales-resume-in-new-jersey-as-governor-signs-bill-allowing-direct-sales/)

http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/18/tesla-can-now-resume-car-sales-in-new-jersey/ (http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/18/tesla-can-now-resume-car-sales-in-new-jersey/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 19, 2015, 11:41:51 PM
Interesting possibility.

Electric cars are so cool they may make it colder.  8)
Electric cars emit almost 20 per cent less heat than conventional cars, thus contributing less to the phenomenon of cities being warmer than the surrounding areas, known as the urban heat island effect.

If this lowers temperatures, use of air conditioning would also drop, and so would the energy used to power it, argues a team led by Canbing Li from Michigan State University in East Lansing.

Using summer 2012 in the Chinese capital of Beijing as an example, the team estimate that replacing conventional cars with electric ones could have reduced the heat by nearly 1 °C. That in turn would result in a reduction in air conditioning use in the city, leading to a drop of 10,686 tonnes in daily CO2 emissions.
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27195-electric-cars-are-so-cool-they-may-make-it-colder.html (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27195-electric-cars-are-so-cool-they-may-make-it-colder.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 12:03:13 AM
@EricHolthaus: A look into the motivations of @TyndallCentre climate scientists around flying

Paper:  http://tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/twp161.pdf (http://tyndall.ac.uk/sites/default/files/twp161.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 12:14:31 AM
An editorial in Nature examines the problem of scientists flying... and driving... and eating meat...

The arguments the authors put forward are powerful, and there are good reasons to pursue their recommendations. In fact, some quarters have already come to similar conclusions and are taking appropriate action: the AGU’s leaders, for instance, have started to look for ways to hold parallel conferences and online dialogues that will allow more academics, often from developing countries, to engage in its meetings. There is real value in face-to-face interaction, and we must not forget that. But the Tyndall Centre is right to point out that senior researchers probably do not need to fly halfway around the globe simply to present a paper at a conference.

“Lots of seemingly small actions can have an effect.”
In some ways, the working paper opens the door to questions that are even harder to answer. Do scientists have a responsibility to stop eating meat, given what we know about the greenhouse-gas intensity of beef production and to a lesser extent that of pork and chicken? Should we expect them to park their cars and take the bus or train instead? The fact is that these are personal choices that academics, like everybody else, must grapple with.

Nor does the buck stop with individuals. Institutions, academic or otherwise, have a large influence on the daily lives that their employees lead. It might seem extreme for universities to force vegetarian fare on their students (although many institutions now have a meat-free day), but bosses could go a long way towards reducing traffic jams and carbon emissions by encouraging their employees to telecommute. And in the long run, does it make sense for an institution or company to purchase cheap real estate in the suburbs and then force its employees to bear the cost of commuting?
http://www.nature.com/news/a-clean-green-science-machine-1.17125 (http://www.nature.com/news/a-clean-green-science-machine-1.17125)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 12:33:02 AM
It's Tesla vs. Google in the battle for the car of the future — and only 1 can win
http://news.yahoo.com/2-competing-ideas-car-future-143832289.html (http://news.yahoo.com/2-competing-ideas-car-future-143832289.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 20, 2015, 12:57:47 AM
News today about Tesla self-driving upgrade.

Tesla Model S will get self-driving feature in 3 months
Drivers of the high-end electric car will get an over-the-air software update within the next three months that will add automatic-steering features.
http://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-model-s-will-get-self-driving-feature-in-3-months/ (http://www.cnet.com/news/tesla-model-s-will-get-self-driving-feature-in-3-months/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 25, 2015, 08:45:03 PM
Obama: Federal fleet must be 50 percent plug-ins by 2025
President Obama signed an executive order Thursday directing the federal government to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent from 2008 levels by 2025. As a part of this plan, plug-in vehicles are to make up 20 percent of government agencies’ fleets by 2020, and 50 percent by 2025. Agencies will also have to ensure that there is sufficient charging infrastructure.

“America once again is going to be leading by example,” said the President. “We’re proving that it is possible to grow our economy robustly while at the same time doing the right thing for our environment and tackling climate change in a serious way.”
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/obama-federal-fleet-must-be-50-percent-plug-ins-by-2025/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/obama-federal-fleet-must-be-50-percent-plug-ins-by-2025/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 26, 2015, 01:15:16 PM
Half of Paris just took a mandatory day off of driving.
http://grist.org/cities/half-of-paris-just-took-a-mandatory-day-off-of-driving/ (http://grist.org/cities/half-of-paris-just-took-a-mandatory-day-off-of-driving/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 27, 2015, 12:48:47 AM
For the second year in a row, automakers in 2013 surpassed the ambitious fuel-efficiency and emission-reduction demands of federal regulators, the Environmental Protection Agency reported Thursday. The rules, first set in 2010, are meant to double the performance of American cars by the year 2025.
http://insideclimatenews.org/carbon-copy/26032015/automakers-surpass-federal-carbon-standard-again-how-exactly (http://insideclimatenews.org/carbon-copy/26032015/automakers-surpass-federal-carbon-standard-again-how-exactly)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on March 27, 2015, 02:47:08 AM
BUT...we're driving more miles, so demand is up: http://peakoil.com/consumption/record-traffic-is-boosting-u-s-fuel-demand (http://peakoil.com/consumption/record-traffic-is-boosting-u-s-fuel-demand)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2015, 07:20:22 PM
China to issue licenses for EV manufacturing to new firms
Under current policy, only existing auto companies may develop electric vehicles, but in order to encourage innovation in new energy cars, the new rules will allow other firms, including auto component suppliers and internet companies, to apply for licenses.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/china-to-issue-licenses-for-ev-manufacturing-to-new-firms/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/china-to-issue-licenses-for-ev-manufacturing-to-new-firms/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Yuha on April 02, 2015, 07:35:25 PM
B. Nykvist & M. Nilsson: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles.
Nature Climate Change 5, 329–332 (2015).
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n4/full/nclimate2564.html)

This paper presents an original systematic review, analysing over 80 different estimates reported 2007–2014 to systematically trace the costs of Li-ion battery packs for BEV manufacturers. We show that industry-wide cost estimates declined by approximately 14% annually between 2007 and 2014, from above US$1,000 per kWh to around US$410 per kWh, and that the cost of battery packs used by market-leading BEV manufacturers are even lower, at US$300 per kWh, and has declined by 8% annually. Learning rate, the cost reduction following a cumulative doubling of production, is found to be between 6 and 9%, in line with earlier studies on vehicle battery technology. We reveal that the costs of Li-ion battery packs continue to decline and that the costs among market leaders are much lower than previously reported.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nature.com%2Fnclimate%2Fjournal%2Fv5%2Fn4%2Fimages_article%2Fnclimate2564-f1.jpg&hash=aa3f7677efa204fa0045a5ac4198c5e3)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 04, 2015, 09:34:17 PM
... and bicycles:
Paris is to experience something of a cycling revolution, with plans to double the number of cycling lanes in the city and triple the number of daily bike journeys.

The plans, laid out by the city hall this week, aim to provide 1,400 kilometres of safe cycling routes by 2020, up from the current 700 kilometres.
http://road.cc/content/news/147613-pariss-5-year-cycling-revolution-twice-cycle-lanes-and-three-times-cyclists-2020 (http://road.cc/content/news/147613-pariss-5-year-cycling-revolution-twice-cycle-lanes-and-three-times-cyclists-2020)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 09, 2015, 07:18:37 PM
Joe Romm:  The Seven Reasons Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Stalled
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on April 09, 2015, 08:10:23 PM
Joe Romm:  The Seven Reasons Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Stalled
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/)

hydrogen as a transportation fuel has always been an oil-industry sponsored red herring.  It was pathetically obvious when the bush admin early on moved away from solar production and electric vehicle research and moved heavily into hydrogen fuel cell research.  The hydrogen inevitably comes from fossil fuels, either natural gas or as a waste stream from oil refinery.  Then the corrosion, leakage and storage issues make it completely untenable. 

If the money spent on this red herring the last 15 years was instead spent on electric vehicles, battery technology and solar panels we would be in a world where these bridge technologies would be half as expensive and twice as capable as the current norm.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jbatteen on April 09, 2015, 10:35:26 PM
100% agreed jai, hydrogen is just not practical.  From storage to generation to transportation, there's simpler ways to transmit electrical energy at every step of the line.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: solartim27 on April 10, 2015, 07:36:26 AM
I bet it doesn't add up to $10 billion.
http://graphics.latimes.com/missile-defense/ (http://graphics.latimes.com/missile-defense/)

Joe Romm:  The Seven Reasons Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Are Stalled
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/04/08/3643876/tesla-toyota-hydrogen-fuel-cell-cars/)

If the money spent on this red herring the last 15 years was instead spent on electric vehicles, battery technology and solar panels we would be in a world where these bridge technologies would be half as expensive and twice as capable as the current norm.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 15, 2015, 07:55:29 PM
Georgia reverses policy on EVs, eliminating tax credit and imposing yearly fee
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/georgia-reverses-policy-on-evs-eliminating-tax-credit-and-imposing-yearly-fee/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/georgia-reverses-policy-on-evs-eliminating-tax-credit-and-imposing-yearly-fee/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on April 15, 2015, 10:01:42 PM
Another thing about ev's which many miss.

Many of the hybrids and ev's purchased in the US were not purchased because the new owners 'wanted' a hybrid or ev for environmental sakes or because they are cheaper to run. 

A very large number of them were purchased because of their being allowed to use HOV lanes when there was only one person in the car. Thus they were purchased for cutting commuting time and no other reason.

This was recently explained to me by relatives who live in Calif.

Now there are so many hybrids in CA that the rules are being changed so that only pure electric vehicles will have this very special benefit of using the HOV lanes. 

My relative who was telling me this story is now in the market for a pure electric.  But we can see where this story leads also.  What happens when there are enough pure ev's in the HOV lanes that they get clogged up again with solo drivers like happened with the hybrids. 

Another kind of subsidy many don't think about.  But does it result in less energy consumption or more.  Clog up the HOV lanes and slow them down and that results in more congestion there and higher fuel consumption.  It also reduces the advantages of using the HOV lanes and might well result in more commuters driving solo and thus increase congestion by putting more vehicles on the road - and raising fuel consumption that way also.

I go back to my point about cars.  Ev's are not the solution.  Getting rid of cars is the solution.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 16, 2015, 05:08:17 PM
EVs regenerate energy when the brakes are applied, and use no engine power at all when stopped.  So, still saving energy, and emissions, even in "clogged" traffic.

New models of ICE/hybrid cars come with Start-Stop systems that increase MPG a bit, particularly while city driving.

http://www.hybridcars.com/stop-start-primer-not-all-systems-are-created-equal/ (http://www.hybridcars.com/stop-start-primer-not-all-systems-are-created-equal/)


Edit: Besides, the main California highways have a ridiculous number of lanes.  When the number of EV's starts to overwhelm the one HOV lane, they can always assign a second one with that privilege.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 17, 2015, 09:08:07 PM
India’s government has announced a goal of putting 6-7 million electric and hybrid vehicles on the road by 2020.  Subsidies will be offered to buyers of electric scooters, tuk-tuks, cars, and busses.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/indian-government-launches-major-ev-incentive-program/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/indian-government-launches-major-ev-incentive-program/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 20, 2015, 02:37:46 PM
... also the ferries!

Amsterdam to electrify its entire bus fleet.
“This project means we are saying goodbye to symbolic behaviour and pilot projects,” Transport Alderman Abdeluheb Choho told the Dutch newspaper Volkskrant. “We have decided to just do it, not to experiment with five buses.”
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/amsterdam-to-electrify-its-entire-bus-fleet/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/amsterdam-to-electrify-its-entire-bus-fleet/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 24, 2015, 07:52:18 PM
Motorsport goes electric.
Formula E’s mission of promoting electromobility fits in with many cities’ desire to cultivate a modern, sustainable image for their rejuvenated downtown districts. “We want to race in city centers,” says Agag. “We want to give the message that electric formula cars are right for the cities now. It’s difficult to change the perception of electric cars, but that’s what we want to do by showing them in this context.”
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/180-cities-ask-to-host-a-formula-e-race/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/180-cities-ask-to-host-a-formula-e-race/)

http://chargedevs.com/newswire/formula-e-electrifies-miami/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/formula-e-electrifies-miami/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 26, 2015, 01:21:52 AM
The "inconvenient" aspects of EVs (distance limits, charging delays) keep dwindling.

They Drove A Tesla From LA To New York In A Record 58 Hours 55 Minutes
http://jalopnik.com/they-drove-a-tesla-from-la-to-new-york-in-a-record-58-h-1699782187 (http://jalopnik.com/they-drove-a-tesla-from-la-to-new-york-in-a-record-58-h-1699782187)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 11, 2015, 08:34:47 PM
Edmunds.com, the “car buying platform” that tracks auto sales with obsessive detail, calculates the “True Cost to Own” or TCO for hundreds of models. “In many cases,” it writes, “TCO points buyers toward an unexpected conclusion: Sometimes the cars that are cheaper to buy are more expensive to own.”
...
I started by comparing these three electric cars to their fossil twins — essentially the same car but with a gas-only engine.

The Nissan Versa Note has a sticker price $14,180, less than half of the LEAF’s price of $29,010. Yet the Note’s five-year cost came to $34,352, while the LEAF’s was $24,843.
...
In 2014, CSE surveyed buyers of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in California. Overall, saving money was the No. 1 factor in their decision to buy an EV, cited as the “primary motivation” by 37 percent of those surveyed. This was especially true in the lower-income Central Valley.

Reducing environmental impacts was a strong second place statewide. The only group to rank environment over cost savings were battery electric vehicle drivers in the Northern Bay Area, like Marin County and the wine country of Napa and Sonoma.

The congested highways of the Bay Area and Los Angeles were the third factor for many drivers. California allows solo drivers in EVs to use carpool lanes during rush hour, saving precious time and aggravation.

Interestingly, motivation varied according to the model of car. “LEAF drivers claimed environment as the primary motivator,” CSE found. “Plug-in Prius owners indicate HOV lane access and Volt drivers said fuel savings.”
http://grist.org/business-technology/whats-the-cheapest-new-car-to-drive-hint-its-an-ev/ (http://grist.org/business-technology/whats-the-cheapest-new-car-to-drive-hint-its-an-ev/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 15, 2015, 02:45:05 AM
Lest you think the "self-driving" thing is only for cars:

Daimler’s self-driving Freightliner truck hits the road in the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/daimler-s-freightliner-tests-self-driving-truck-in-nevada (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-14/daimler-s-freightliner-tests-self-driving-truck-in-nevada)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 18, 2015, 02:46:17 PM
A view of the (very near?) future, filled with driverless vehicles.  What will we do with all the unneeded parking spaces?

Autonomous cars will destroy millions of jobs and reshape the US economy by 2025
http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/ (http://qz.com/403628/autonomous-cars-will-destroy-millions-of-jobs-and-reshape-the-economy-by-2025/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 19, 2015, 05:14:40 PM
Tesla to adapt to Chinese charging standards – as soon as they exist
One wealthy businessman, frustrated that he couldn’t drive his Tesla Model S from Guangdong to Beijing, bought 20 Level 2 charging stations from Tesla and built his own charging network, which he says is also open to other Tesla owners.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-to-adapt-to-chinese-charging-standards-as-soon-as-they-exist/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-to-adapt-to-chinese-charging-standards-as-soon-as-they-exist/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 22, 2015, 07:58:09 PM
Pennsylvania renews EV rebate program
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/pennsylvania-renews-ev-rebate-program/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/pennsylvania-renews-ev-rebate-program/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 24, 2015, 07:24:38 PM
I enjoyed this book about Elon Musk and his history with Paypal, Tesla, SpaceX and Solar City.
It's available for iBook or Kindle (free sample), and other formats via Amazon.

http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/05/elon_musk_biography_review_how_did_a_sci_fi_nut_with_a_hero_complex_becoming.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/05/elon_musk_biography_review_how_did_a_sci_fi_nut_with_a_hero_complex_becoming.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on May 24, 2015, 07:52:22 PM
Barclays: Autonomous Shared Vehicle Platforms to Cut Single Family Car Ownership by 40%

(by 2040!)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/driverless-cars-may-cut-u-s-auto-sales-by-40-barclays-says (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-19/driverless-cars-may-cut-u-s-auto-sales-by-40-barclays-says)

As the future of automotive is focused on self-driving cars, Johnson noted there are four types of vehicles emerging:

    Traditional automobiles
    Family Autonomous vehicles
    Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs)
    Pooled Shared Autonomous Vehicles (PSAVs)

In the future, each SAV could displace nine traditional vehicles, with PSAVs offering 2x the impact and fractional prices (i.e., as low as $0.08 per mile, versus the $3.00 to $3.50 cost per mile of an UberX).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 27, 2015, 02:15:30 AM
PERSONAL ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE GREENWASH

1. ELECTRIC VEHICLES HAVE ENORMOUS EMBODIED CARBON

I made earlier posts on this thread in 2013, e.g. (1 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg12134.html#msg12134),2 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg12189.html#msg12189),3 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg12195.html#msg12195)). These questioned the embodied carbon in cars, especially Electric Vehicles.  One reference gave the embodied CO2e as 16.4 tonnes for a gasoline car, 15.6 for a hybrid and 27 tonnes for the all electric car.

If these figures were correct, then one car per household is an environmental disaster. (It still would be at the previous figures I had assumed - these were about a quarter as much.)

2. SEPARATE DEVELOPMENT FOR PEOPLE WITHOUT CARS.

Back in the 1970's, I started to campaign for separate neighbourhoods to be developed where car ownership is suppressed so that cars are used rarely. Then I campaigned because life is so much better for non-motorists when cars are drastically restricted. (Now, of couse, avoiding dangerous climate change is much more important.)

Neighbourhoods with few cars can have much better facilities than those with high car use. (4 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/a-parable-of-four-villages/)) (e.g. buses, pubs, shops, clean air). They offer a much better quality of life for the non-motorist.

One telling question is: "Would you like  to live in (no-car) Venice or (high-car) Los Angeles?". (5 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/nocars-org-uk/))


3. SEPARATE DEVELOPMENTS CAN PAVE THE WAY TO AVOIDING DANGEROUS

Very low car neighbourhoods would show the way to an (almost) car free world. Cutting the number of cars by an order of magnitude is necessary (but not, of course, sufficient) to save us from dangerous climate change and our descendants from a possible sixth mass extinction.

Many people don't like to live in motor-towns or motor-suburbs and would move to low car neighbourhoods - if they existed nearby. Many would then follow, once the neighbourhoods were established and their qualities shown.

An analogue is that most passengers stopped smoking on trains, when smoking was restricted to carriages reserved for smoking (6 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/the-parable-of-the-smoking-carriages/)). Most smoking stopped when smokers were confronted with the choice between cleaner air of the non-smoking carriages and their own pollution.

Many motorists would give up their cars to live in a nearby Venice. See the video Carfree Venice (https://vimeo.com/channels/carfree).

4. PREPARING FOR A VERY HIGH POLLUTION PRICE

This approach may be a way of starting settlement patterns that would become prototypes for life after, the world gets to grips with climate reality and sets a very high price on pollution. In terms of a carbon tax I guess this should be in the order of £1000 per tonne CO2.


5. UNREALISTIC?

I know this argument sounds unrealistic but it is more realistic than the fantasy that we can avoid climate disaster with mass transport dependent on the vehicles we use for personal transport today – even if they are Electric Vehicles.

In short, mass personal transport with Electric Vehicles is unrealistic greenwash.

Let's talk of slower speeds, less travelling, more local goods and services and eschew the destructive, unhappy life styles we are being sold today. Lets talk green settlements (7 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/the-green-settlement-handbook/)).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on May 27, 2015, 02:22:40 AM
To be fair, the embodied carbon from manufacturing the vehicles is probably largely from fossil fuel energy - for example in smelting aluminium. That contribution can presumably be zeroed out by using renewable energy.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on May 27, 2015, 04:25:51 AM
Aluminum is "smelted" using electricity almost always using hydro power.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on May 27, 2015, 06:14:28 AM
Aluminum is "smelted" using electricity almost always using hydro power.
I would tend to accept that. But do you think the reference cited by Geoff Beacon above takes that into account?

I'm guessing the 'intrinsic' embodied carbon in car manufacture is relatively small - that is, electric cars can be produced sustainably or nearly so if we put our minds to it.

Let's take it further and ask what it is in electric car manufacture that must release CO2 or other greenhouse gases, with no manufacturing alternative.


Challenging Geoff Beacon or anyone else to nail that down if they can. (Do it in ALL CAPS if that's your style.) Personally, I'm skeptical of these reports and their calculations.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 27, 2015, 10:35:57 AM
slow wing
/Challenging Geoff Beacon or anyone else to nail that down if they can.

I can't "nail it down". I have struggled for many years to get reliable carbon footprint values. See my Green Ration Book (http://www.greenrationbook.org.uk/) for one attempt. I have found barriers all the way.  Most sources have some interest (a mixture of commercial and academic) for obfuscating. OK, the arguments are complex and the results are by their nature fuzzy but these increase the scope for obfuscation and spin.

In many case I would characterise the spin as lies but all of us affluent smug b******s want to believe we can live similar lives to our present ones without screwing the climate, so are happy to believe that our best and peer reviewed information sources are free and truthful. MOST ARE NOT. It's often they are loathe to tell the whole truth. (See those other threads here.)

The more questions I have asked, the more cynical I get.   

CAPITALS! IT WILL BE IN GREEN INK NEXT TIME. Your delusions have driven me to the madness of poetry.

HIS NEW COMMANNDMENTS

Kill My world as little as you can
Don't drve a car,
Don't fly in planes
And leave that corned beef in the can

Kill My world as little as you're able
Don't build with bricks
Don't build with steel
And eat the horse that's in your stable.

Don't kill My world by rushing all the time
Gaze at the stars
Breathe in the air
Praise all creation that is Mine

P.S. I do hope the Pope's encyclical will be forceful but more credible.

P.P.S. I shouldn't drink before breakfast.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: anotheramethyst on May 27, 2015, 10:50:10 AM
nice poem :)

i agree geoff, i think intrinsically cars don't HAVE to require any fossil fuels in their production or use.  however, they are still energy intensive and using that much of any energy just to move one person 40 miles every day is an unrealistic goal for an economy solely based on renewables.  we need to be realistic about how much output we can expect from renewables and we need to downsize all our energy use until supply can meet demand without fossil fuels.  it will be an extremely tough sell to get people to willingly give up cars, but if we work on making communities more walkable and more bike friendly, it will help a transition that will gradually become indisputably necessary.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on May 27, 2015, 11:19:48 AM
Heh heh! Very good, Geoff, I enjoyed the poem as well  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on May 27, 2015, 01:01:53 PM
Geoff, I agree eliminating cars would be better.
However, how long do you think it will take for society to do so?

In the meantime, why not lessen the impact by making cars that emit less GHGs?

If someone wants to be responsible for emitting less GHGs, an electric car allows them personal control over the fuel source.  Which is not the case with gas cars, unless you go with biodiesel.

If running EVs on renewables, how much less GHGs annually vs a standard 25mpg gas car?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 27, 2015, 02:33:41 PM
Thanks for taking my tipsy rant so well!

We do need prototype car-free neighbourhoods(1) to show a better way of life.

Otherwise, smaller, lighter, much slower, electric cars, with shorter range could help.

Neighbouhoods should have local facilities near to homes so distances travelled are shorter.

Environment friendly materials? I know someone that makes bamboo bikes. Why not little cars? Know anyone that wants to commission a bamboo framed golf buggy to get this started?

Anyway thanks again.

(1) Almost car-free as in ice-free Arctic.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 27, 2015, 05:01:43 PM
Kill My world as little as you can
Don't drive a car,

Are 100% electric vehicles charged from renewable sources OK?

http://www.v2g.co.uk/2015/05/renault-nissan-to-provide-200-electric-vehicles-for-un-cop21-paris-climate-conference/ (http://www.v2g.co.uk/2015/05/renault-nissan-to-provide-200-electric-vehicles-for-un-cop21-paris-climate-conference/)

What are the chances of my final paragraph coming to fruition?

At this point in time I cannot help but wonder what Amber Rudd and her new team at DECC will make of being ferried around Paris in 100% electric vehicles later this year? Maybe they’ll be so impressed that they will follow the lead of Paris and set up networks of more than 50 quick and standard charging stations powered by 100% renewable energy in strategic locations. The quick charging stations will be able to charge the EVs from 0 to 80% capacity in about 30 minutes.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Yuha on May 27, 2015, 05:09:23 PM
We do need prototype car-free neighbourhoods(1) to show a better way of life.

How about car-free cities?

http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/28/end-of-the-car-age-how-cities-outgrew-the-automobile (http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/apr/28/end-of-the-car-age-how-cities-outgrew-the-automobile)

Generation Y, the so-called millennials now in their 20s and early 30s who have come of age in the digital era, seem less wedded to possessions than their baby boomer predecessors. Surveys show that the one object that is prized is the smartphone, and the future of transport is likely to be based not on individually owned cars but on “mobility as a service” – a phrase supposedly coined by another Finn, Sampo Hietanen, chief executive of Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) Finland. Consumers will, so the theory goes, use their smartphones to check ultra-detailed travel news, locate car-club cars or bikes, check for parking spaces, call up Uber drivers, and arrange shared rides. Who needs a personally owned car?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: deep octopus on May 27, 2015, 06:23:03 PM
The 12-month vehicle miles traveled (VMT) moving average in the United States increased to another record in March. A total of 3.064 trillion miles (or nearly 5 trillion km) were traveled from April 2014 to March 2015, or about 9,600 miles per United States resident.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1cyI (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=1cyI)

As someone who does not own a car, I advocate for a far stronger push in American cities to adopt walkable cities with high connectivity to mass transit, improvements to regional passenger rail, and provide a far more extensive network of cycle tracks and bike facilities. However, it is clear from the following data that there is a monumental amount of work to be done here. And further, it is clear from Congress' direction that the chances of improved funding, focus, or will to improve non-automotive travel in the near term are slim.

http://flowingdata.com/2015/01/20/how-americans-get-to-work/ (http://flowingdata.com/2015/01/20/how-americans-get-to-work/)

This interactive tool by Flowingdata lays bare the ghastly commuter patterns of Americans. It is no surprise that in the vast majority of counties, the vast majority of people drive alone. Granted many counties are in rural areas with far less access to public transportation or walkable land use designs, but even in more urban counties (such as Chicago in Cook County, IL; Los Angeles County, CA; Seattle in King County, WA; San Francisco, CA; Boston in Suffolk County, MA; and many other counties within urban regions) the plurality to majority of commuters drive alone. Only Washington, DC; New York; and Hudson County, NJ (all of which have excellent access to public transportation) have a plurality to majority of people who take public transportation. Some rural areas in Alaska and Colorado show walking majorites.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 27, 2015, 11:48:32 PM
Jim & Yuha

HELP ME TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS

Here are some background ideas

REMAINING CARBON BUDGET

Carbon brief  (http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-point-5-degrees/) reports the remaining carbon budget to give a 66% chance of keeping global warming below 1.5˚C is 243 billion tonnes.  The remaining carbon budget to keep below 2˚C is 843 billion tonnes.

CARBON BUDGET PER PERSON

A few minutes ago world population was estimated at 7,317,801,293 by Worldometers (http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-point-5-degrees/). That means remaining the carbon budget per person is 33 tonnes CO2e for a 1.5˚C rise or 115 tonnes for a 2˚C rise.

MISSING FEEDBACKS MEAN LOWER BUDGETS

However, we know the IPCC CMIP5 models have missing feedbacks (1 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/missing-feedbacks-ignored-by-ipcc-models/)) so the IPCC carbon budgets are too generous. In addition, world population is rising. Personally, I would like to see us aim at a lower temperature than 1.5˚C and better odds than 66% So I would go for rather less than 33 tonnes CO2e.

EMBODIED CARBON IN ELECTRIC VEHICLES

I would not even put the budget as high as the 27 tonnes of CO2e given for one Electric Vehicle's manufacturing emissions. (Table 9 of A Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013 from Climate Central  (3 (http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/ClimateFriendlyCarsReport_Final.pdf)).)

EMBODIED CARBON IN CITIES

As for car-free cities, I have always like the idea and have attended a Car Free Network's conference a few years ago. If I remember correctly, they sent me the link to the video about car-free Venice.(4 (https://vimeo.com/channels/carfree)). They can be contacted though "Carfree Network"<carfree_network@googlegroups.com>.

However, beware of the argument we-must-all-live-in-cities. I estimate, using current construction methodology, creating the space for an extra person in a conventional city creates of the order of 100 tonnes of CO2e.(5 (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/does-global-warming-mean-no-high-buildings/)).

WHAT SHOULD THE PERSONAL REMAINING CARBON BUDGET BE?

The first question I would like some guidance on is “What is your remaining carbon budget?” - and also “What should mine be?”. Then we can get down to deciding how to spend it.

Perhaps we should just cheat. Nearly everybody else is.

Best wishes

Geoff
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: crandles on May 28, 2015, 12:52:56 AM
One reference gave the embodied CO2e as 16.4 tonnes for a gasoline car, 15.6 for a hybrid and 27 tonnes for the all electric car.

Why is the embodied CO2e for a hybrid so low - lower than gasoline and lower than all electric when it needs both electric and gasoline engine?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 28, 2015, 01:13:25 AM
Crandles
Why is the embodied CO2e for a hybrid so low - lower than gasoline and lower than all electric when it needs both electric and gasoline engine?

Look at their Table 9. The hybrid has smaller batteries.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: crandles on May 28, 2015, 03:04:50 AM
Batteries much smaller 1.2 vs 11.5 for electric

those aren't tonnes but 1000 lbs weight. There are 2.2 lbs to the kg so you need to divide the figures you gave by 2.2 to correctly state tons of CO2e.

Comparing hybrid to gas car
Savings of 1000lbs of CO2e for base vehicle (lighter for hybrid) and about 1000lbs CO2e less for 'Other power train' more than compensate for extra 1000lbs CO2e for hybrid's small battery. The engine difference is negligible: 1486 lbs CO2e for 189hp gas engine versus 1519 lbs CO2e for 80hp electric and 98hp gas combined engine. 
 


Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on May 28, 2015, 05:48:34 AM
The CO2e estimates for batteries have never been credible. That said what will the claim be when Tesla makes all their batteries in a factory completely run on wind and solar power?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 28, 2015, 08:13:18 AM
Geoff - Your document implies that if you're going to build lots of electric vehicles it would be a really good idea to use "low carbon" electricity to do so. However for some strange reason whilst Climate Central does mention places like Vermont it fails to mention France, at present surely the best place on the planet to build an EV production line?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: jai mitchell on May 28, 2015, 09:28:33 PM
Geoff - Your document implies that if you're going to build lots of electric vehicles it would be a really good idea to use "low carbon" electricity to do so. However for some strange reason whilst Climate Central does mention places like Vermont it fails to mention France, at present surely the best place on the planet to build an EV production line?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_France)

Especially considering that they are being made out of aluminum!  Very electricity intensive production.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on May 29, 2015, 12:37:20 PM
CORRECTION

Crandles
those aren't tonnes but 1000 lbs weight. There are 2.2 lbs to the kg so you need to divide the figures you gave by 2.2 to corretly state tons of CO2e.
Thanks. That now makes more sense. I had previously assumed that the embodied carbon per car was about 4 tonnes CO2e.

The estimates in  A Roadmap to Climate-Friendly Cars: 2013 (1 (http://assets.climatecentral.org/pdfs/ClimateFriendlyCarsReport_Final.pdf)) when converted to metric tonnes CO2e are:

Electric Car     12.3
Gas Car            7.4
Hybrid Car        7.1

The personal remaining carbon budget (for 1.5C) that I guestimate (based on Carbon Brief's argument (http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2014/11/six-years-worth-of-current-emissions-would-blow-the-carbon-budget-for-1-point-5-degrees/) is 25 tonnes CO2e. That budget it would be reached with the embodied carbon in just two electric cars or three other cars.  That leaves nothing for food, travel, heating, entertainment and breathing.

CAN EMBODIED CARBON BE REDUCED?

ghoti
The CO2e estimates for batteries have never been credible. That said what will the claim be when Tesla makes all their batteries in a factory completely run on wind and solar power?
Perhaps those estimates are over estimates. Perhaps Tesla will build solar and wind farms to make batteries but there are complicated arguments here. First both solar farms and wind farms are high in embodied carbon when current manufacturing technology is used. This creates a carbon hit in the short to medium term. Isn't this when it matters?

NUCLEAR POWER

Jim Hunt
Your document implies that if you're going to build lots of electric vehicles it would be a really good idea to use "low carbon" electricity to do so. However for some strange reason whilst Climate Central does mention places like Vermont it fails to mention France, at present surely the best place on the planet to build an EV production line?
The first issue here is one similar to the use of recycled steel in building. If it's used in one building, the stock of recycled materials decreases so more virgin steel is produced. See The ICE approach to recycled materials in (No High Buildings (http://www.brusselsblog.co.uk/nohighbuildings-org-uk/)). (*) With nuclear electricity, using it means that demand has to be satisfied through non nuclear sources.

However, if demand increases for nuclear electricity, the response might be to build more nuclear power stations. This may be good for global warming (**) but nuclear power stations are at risk from global warming. Natalie Kopytko, of the University of York, (wrote in the Guardian (http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/cif-green/2011/mar/18/nuclear-power-climate-change-risks))

No matter how well they build them, nuclear power plants require lots of water. As such, the plants need to be either on the coast or near a large body of water at an inland site. The loss of off-site power commonly happens during storms, particularly at coastal locations. So a strong storm, probably stronger than the historical records used in the estimates for design, could cause flooding that leads to an accident similar to the one we are witnessing.
And what if industrial civilisation fails? The expertise and resources to manage the problems of the safe disposal of nuclear waste will disappear and then ...

WHAT ABOUT ICELAND?

jai mitchell
Especially considering that they are being made out of aluminum!  Very electricity intensive production.
That suggests Iceland (https://arcticecon.wordpress.com/2012/02/15/aluminium-smelting-in-iceland-alcoa-rio-tinto-alcan-century-aluminum-corp/) to me.

PUMP PRIMING AND SPENDING OUR REMAINING CARBON BUDGET

If we are going to postulate a world where our cars and buildings have little embodied carbon we ought to look at how we get there. We could argue that we must expect to spend some of our remaining carbon budget to prime the pump of a low carbon future (i.e. laying down the infrastructure for low carbon manufacturing and construction) but ...

What is the carbon cost of priming this pump? and

How much of our remaining carbon budget can we afford?

(*) Having said that, there will be a (small?) secondary effect: greater demand for steel will mean more steel is recycled.

(**) Are there some embodied carbon issues here too?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 31, 2015, 11:58:28 PM
... and planes.  The solar-powered Solar Impulse 2 plane has entered Day 2 of the 5-day Nanjing, China to Hawaii leg of its historic around-the-world flight.  (It climbs to about 28,000 feet and charges its batteries during the day, then glides down to about 5,000 feet at night.)

http://www.solarimpulse.com/widget-flight_wrapup (http://www.solarimpulse.com/widget-flight_wrapup)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2015, 01:40:08 AM
New emissions targets for large trucks aim to spur innovation.

E.P.A. Proposal Will Put Bigger Trucks on a Fuel Diet
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/31/business/energy-environment/epa-proposal-will-put-bigger-trucks-on-a-fuel-diet.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/31/business/energy-environment/epa-proposal-will-put-bigger-trucks-on-a-fuel-diet.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 01, 2015, 12:33:18 PM
.... and buses. Volvo's ad for their forthcoming trial of all electric buses in Gothenburg:

http://youtu.be/3vTf7Sfrhs4 (http://youtu.be/3vTf7Sfrhs4)

They seem to think low noise has more appeal to the (wo)man in the street than low carbon?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 01, 2015, 12:56:29 PM
Geoff - One can't help but think that the "pump priming" you refer to should have been put into top gear a decade or two ago?

Re nuclear: Bryony Worthington seems rather keen on those new fangled molten salt reactors, which apparently don't rely on water cooling and "fail safe":

http://www.the-weinberg-foundation.org/about/our-trustees/bryony-worthington-2/ (http://www.the-weinberg-foundation.org/about/our-trustees/bryony-worthington-2/)

Amber Rudd seems rather keen on fracking however!

P.S. Shortly after clicking "Post" this arrived in my inbox:

http://projects.exeter.ac.uk/igov/working-paper-the-danish-system-of-electricity-policy-making-and-regulation/ (http://projects.exeter.ac.uk/igov/working-paper-the-danish-system-of-electricity-policy-making-and-regulation/)

From Exeter University, not DECC!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 01, 2015, 01:54:02 PM
Weather deteriorating towards Hawaii; Solar Impulse turning back to land.
http://gizmodo.com/solar-impulse-is-abandoning-its-current-flight-leg-due-1708124554 (http://gizmodo.com/solar-impulse-is-abandoning-its-current-flight-leg-due-1708124554)

@Gizmodo: Solar Impulse is abandoning its current flight leg due to bad weather: http://t.co/tsNiPknPz9 (http://t.co/tsNiPknPz9) http://t.co/LIoyhGsdag (http://t.co/LIoyhGsdag)

@SoaringSociety: Wx deteriorated more. Some 38hrs in @andreborschberg & @solarimpulse now forced to land Nagoya Japan 1400UTC 10amEDT http://t.co/on2dyRpKcj (http://t.co/on2dyRpKcj)

@solarimpulse: VERY SPECIAL LANDING in Nagoya: no ground crew & bicycles allowed on the runway! https://t.co/cZ6IAxeq6l (https://t.co/cZ6IAxeq6l) http://t.co/06TDHxeWGT (http://t.co/06TDHxeWGT)

In holding pattern above Nagoya airport.
@solarimpulse: We thank Japanese & Nagoya's authorities for their support today! Accepting a 72-meter solar plane is not easy task http://t.co/ltnoGr3L8a (http://t.co/ltnoGr3L8a)

Live updates:  http://www.solarimpulse.com/sitv (http://www.solarimpulse.com/sitv)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 01, 2015, 08:12:32 PM
Jim H

Thanks.

Thorium does seem a much better option than current power from nuclear.

That paper: Denmark "is now committed to a complete decarbonisation of its energy system by 2050". Perhaps I've been influenced by Guy McPherson's visit to York recently but aren't these best efforts too little to late? The paper starts

Denmark is widely recognised as a world leader in the transformation to a more sustainable energy future.
In 2008, Denmark's emissions per capita were 8.4 tonnes CO2e Wikipedia's List of countries by carbon dioxide emissions per capita (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita). Assuming 8 tonnes now, a linear decrease gives 140 tonnes CO2e up to 2050 (140 is 35years*0.5*8.0 tonnes) .

Compare this 140 tonnes CO2e to the remaining carbon budget per person I calculated above: 33 tonnes CO2e for a 1.5˚C rise or 115 tonnes for a 2˚C rise.

Depressing.

I'm beginning to think Guy isn't such a nutter after all.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on June 01, 2015, 11:40:57 PM
Geoff, I agree it sounds too late, but just dabbling at the math, since much of world population has a far low carbon footprint, Denmark could use more carbon budget per capita than the average world citizen and still get the whole world within budget. The use of the average is somewhat misleading when there are such differences between countries.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: GeoffBeacon on June 02, 2015, 10:38:43 AM
/Oren

Good point. But would  the average world citizen still get the whole world within budget?

According to World Bank data, in 2010 the world average CO2e per person (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC/) was 4.88. If that is tailed off linearly from now over 35 years gives 85 tonnes CO2e. That's over the 1.5˚C remaining carbon budget of 33 tonnes but below the remaining carbon budget of 140 tonnes for a 2˚C rise.

However, this World Bank Data is 5 years old and total emissions have risen since 2010.

Also

Carbon dioxide emissions are those stemming from the burning of fossil fuels and the manufacture of cement. They include carbon dioxide produced during consumption of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and gas flaring.
No deforestation. No cattle emissions. No carbon emissions from "missing feedbacks". 

A few more countries emissions under the linear decline over 35 years

CountryTonnes CO2e
United States307
Russian Federation214
United Kingdom137
China108
Brazil38
India29
Paraguay14
Afghanistan5
Mozambique2
Congo, Dem. Rep.0.9
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 02, 2015, 09:13:21 PM
Tesla co-founder turns his attention to electric trucks.

Wrightspeed’s main markets now are delivery trucks and garbage trucks. These trucks that have a lot of stops and starts and high fuel consumption offer a very compelling economic case for electrification. Where an average family car might only burn 600 gallons of fuel a year, a garbage truck can consume 14,000 gallons a year. A typical garbage truck might travel 130 miles a day with a thousand hard stops at 2.8 miles per gallon of fuel. A Wrightspeed retrofit for the heavy duty platform costs around $200,000 but can save $35,000 per year in fuel and $20,000 in maintenance (much of that in brakes) which means 4-5 years to pay off the investment.
http://breakingenergy.com/2015/03/12/wrightspeed-hybrid-electric-trucks-are-the-cutting-edge-of-truck-design/ (http://breakingenergy.com/2015/03/12/wrightspeed-hybrid-electric-trucks-are-the-cutting-edge-of-truck-design/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 05, 2015, 02:38:02 AM
... and planes.

Just Plane Wrong
Global aviation is the fastest-growing cause of climate change. And the EPA might let it off the hook.
By Eric Holthaus
http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.1.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/business/moneybox/2015/06/air_travel_and_climate_regulation_why_the_epa_might_let_big_aviation_off.1.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 13, 2015, 01:41:13 AM
... and planes.

How will we fly in 2050? Ask the experts on June 15
(CNN)CNN International's team at Le Bourget will be hosting a live Twitter chat with some of the biggest names in aviation.

On June 15, 15:00GMT, CNN's resident aviation geek Thom Patterson will be discussing the future of flight with Solar Impulse pilot Bertrand Piccard; Chris Daniels, Director of Hybrid Air Vehicles; Brett Snyder, aka The Cranky Flier and Tim Robinson, Editor in Chief of Aerospace magazine.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/09/travel/le-bourget-twitter-chat-preview/index.html (http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/09/travel/le-bourget-twitter-chat-preview/index.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 17, 2015, 10:02:12 PM
... and planes.  Raising a runway at New York's Kennedy airport by one foot.

Kennedy Airport Hopes Work on Runway Won’t Add to Summer Delays
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/nyregion/kennedy-airport-amid-runway-project-prepares-for-wind-delays-of-summer.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/16/nyregion/kennedy-airport-amid-runway-project-prepares-for-wind-delays-of-summer.html)

Photo: The flooding by the bayside runway at Kennedy during Superstorm Sandy in October 2012.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 19, 2015, 09:20:06 PM
Airbus group has a prototype electric airplane.
E-Fan is reshaping the future of flight. This highly innovative family of aircraft will be the world’s first series production electric planes – opening the way for a new era in air transportation that is environmentally-friendly and highly efficient.
http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/innovation-environment/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft.html (http://www.airbusgroup.com/int/en/innovation-environment/airbus-e-fan-the-future-of-electric-aircraft.html)

Photo from the 2015 Paris Air Show.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 19, 2015, 09:50:44 PM
Ultramodern plug-in buses go into service in Gothenburg, Sweden.
All the buses are powered solely by wind and hydroelectric power, and are billed as among the most modern in the world. They feature onboard WiFi and phone charging facilities, and passengers can enter and exit the buses from an indoor terminal, a welcome feature in snowy Sweden, and one that no diesel bus can hope to offer.
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/ultramodern-plug-in-buses-go-into-service-in-gothenburg/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/ultramodern-plug-in-buses-go-into-service-in-gothenburg/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 22, 2015, 09:36:37 PM
The EPA Just Cracked Down On Carbon Emissions From Big Trucks
According to the EPA, medium and heavy duty cars and trucks make up 20 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with transportation in the U.S., even though they only make up about 5 percent of the vehicles on the road.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/19/3671822/epa-big-trucks-rule-proposal/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/06/19/3671822/epa-big-trucks-rule-proposal/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 23, 2015, 07:15:25 PM
In just three years, Tesla Model S owners around the world have driven over one billion electric miles.  Preventing over 570,000 tons of CO2 emissions.

@TeslaMotors: This is huge: Tesla drivers passed 1 billion electric miles. http://t.co/glRZTtUpai (http://t.co/glRZTtUpai)
https://t.co/3UDceWjY6M (https://t.co/3UDceWjY6M)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 25, 2015, 07:09:40 PM
Quite an uptick:

UK plug-in vehicle sales start to accelerate
http://chargedevs.com/newswire/uk-plug-in-sales-start-to-accelerate/ (http://chargedevs.com/newswire/uk-plug-in-sales-start-to-accelerate/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 26, 2015, 08:14:17 PM
Another electric plane:

Brazil and Paraguay launch the first electric plane in Latin America
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n-0E83jVLc4
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 27, 2015, 03:01:31 AM
Nissan reveal a long range LEAF:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/06/carlos-ghosn-reveals-long-range-nissan-leaf/ (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/06/carlos-ghosn-reveals-long-range-nissan-leaf/)

Perhaps surprisingly, the man from Ofgem I spoke to at the conference yesterday seemed to understand the implications perfectly. Apparently he'd recently removed the word "disruptive" from the title of his presentation!

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 27, 2015, 06:59:33 PM
Nissan reveal a long range LEAF: 
Pretty cool.  544 km = 338 miles.  That's probably too much to ask for the expected 2017 LEAF upgrade.  But, soon!

And if, after watching the videos, folks are wondering....   No, you don't need a Japanese lady to help you find where the chargers are.  See:  http://www.plugshare.com (http://www.plugshare.com)   8)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on June 27, 2015, 08:50:02 PM
You seemed to have missed the point that these would be Japanese test cycle estimates which are crazy over-estimates. For example from Wiki numbers for the Prius C:

Toyota estimates the fuel economy 35 km/L (82 mpg-US) (2.86 L/100 km) on the official JC08 Japanese test cycles and 40 km/L (94 mpg-US) (2.5 L/100 km) under the 10–15 test cycle.[2][24] Under the United States Environmental Protection Agency test cycles, the Prius c is rated at 53 mpg-US (4.4 L/100 km; 64 mpg-imp) city and 46 mpg-US (5.1 L/100 km; 55 mpg-imp) highway, for a combined fuel economy of 50 mpg-US (4.7 L/100 km; 60 mpg-imp)

I own and drive a Prius C and the US estimates reflect my reality. This shows that the Japanese fuel economy estimates are roughly double what can be considered real. So probably 165 mile range more likely. Still great and much more believable.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 01, 2015, 07:52:58 PM
Volkswagen to install 12,000 charging points in its German parking lots
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/volkswagen-to-install-12000-charging-points-in-its-german-parking-lots/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 02, 2015, 05:26:57 PM
Video discussion:  autonomous cars could reduce the number of cars in cities by a factor of ten, and be more efficient than mass transit.  "People want to drink and drive."

Uber CEO: If Tesla’s cars are autonomous by 2020, we’ll buy all 500,000
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/uber-ceo-if-teslas-cars-are-autonomous-by-2020-well-buy-all-500000/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 02, 2015, 05:45:17 PM
Would you believe I've been discussing autonomous vehicles over at Judy Curry's place (https://archive.is/O7Kko) recently! With a bit of cutting and pasting, see:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/06/carlos-ghosn-reveals-long-range-nissan-leaf/ (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/06/carlos-ghosn-reveals-long-range-nissan-leaf/)

where Carlos mentions autonomy briefly. "Zero Emissions, Zero Fatalities,  Zero Congestion" is Nissan's motto. Then there is:

http://www.amazon.com/Mobility-Revolution-Emissions-Accidents-Ownership-ebook/dp/B00SI7PBKQ (http://www.amazon.com/Mobility-Revolution-Emissions-Accidents-Ownership-ebook/dp/B00SI7PBKQ)
http://www.amazon.com/Driverless-Car-Revolution-Mobility-Metal-ebook/dp/B00WS1S4AM/ (http://www.amazon.com/Driverless-Car-Revolution-Mobility-Metal-ebook/dp/B00WS1S4AM/)

and even a few videos:

http://youtu.be/DYTV4d-Gn0s (http://youtu.be/DYTV4d-Gn0s)

Then of course there's California to consider!




Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2015, 01:23:57 AM
Some existing Tesla models can squeeze out about a 400-mile range.

What is the real range of an electric car? Tesla helps us find the answer.
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/196607-what-is-the-real-range-of-an-electric-car-tesla-helps-us-find-the-answer (http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/196607-what-is-the-real-range-of-an-electric-car-tesla-helps-us-find-the-answer)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2015, 09:18:07 PM
What an accomplishment!

Solar-Powered Plane Lands in Hawaii After Flight from Japan
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/solar-powered-plane-lands-hawaii-after-flight-japan-n386396 (http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/solar-powered-plane-lands-hawaii-after-flight-japan-n386396)

@UNFCCC: .@solarimpulse has completed longest leg of its flight around the world, without fuel http://t.co/IuA3eqbIKq (http://t.co/IuA3eqbIKq) #Si2 http://t.co/7maWWrAFzw (http://t.co/7maWWrAFzw)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 03, 2015, 09:40:39 PM
More:

A Swiss Pilot Just Completed The Longest Solar-Powered Flight In History
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/03/3676931/solar-plane-world-record/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/03/3676931/solar-plane-world-record/)

Photo of Solar Impulse 2 on the runway in Hawaii.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 07, 2015, 05:55:06 PM
The hydrogen fuel cell powered BMW 5 series GT:

http://www.autoblog.com/2015/07/02/bmw-5-series-gt-hydrogen-test-car/ (http://www.autoblog.com/2015/07/02/bmw-5-series-gt-hydrogen-test-car/)

At the heart of BMW's latest FCV prototype is a new electric motor derived from the i sub-brand. It produces the equivalent of 245 horsepower, making it roughly comparable in output to the brand's latest 2.0-liter, turbocharged, four-cylinder gas engines. It draws its fuel from a hydrogen fuel tank that sits between the axles. The BMW-patented storage system can hold enough compressed hydrogen to take the hunchbacked 5 Series 300 miles before refueling.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 08, 2015, 12:43:02 AM
Chevy Bolt EV on its way to the masses – not the elite
True to its namesake, the Chevy Bolt EV seems to be moving through the pipeline at an impressive speed, at least by auto-industry standards. The company recently revealed that it has built 55 pre-production Bolts, which are handily delivering the desired 200 miles of range.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chevy-bolt-ev-on-its-way-to-the-masses-not-the-elite/ (https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chevy-bolt-ev-on-its-way-to-the-masses-not-the-elite/)


Tesla Supercharger use -- revised?
At Tesla’s annual shareholders’ meeting earlier this month, CEO Elon Musk groused about Model S owners who aggressively use the company’s Superchargers for their local driving.

Superchargers, Musk said, were intended for long-distance charging.

For Model S owners fortunate enough to live near the lightning-fast free chargers, it just wasn’t cool to regularly use them for local driving, he said.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098831_teslas-contradictory-messages-is-supercharging-unlimited-or-not (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098831_teslas-contradictory-messages-is-supercharging-unlimited-or-not)


Tesla Supercharger: joys and frustrations.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098658_life-with-tesla-model-s-local-supercharger-joys-frustrations (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098658_life-with-tesla-model-s-local-supercharger-joys-frustrations)

Momentum Dynamics CEO: 25 kW wireless charging will be the norm in 5 years
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/momentum-dynamics-ceo-25-kw-wireless-charging-will-be-the-norm-in-5-years/ (https://chargedevs.com/newswire/momentum-dynamics-ceo-25-kw-wireless-charging-will-be-the-norm-in-5-years/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2015, 01:57:03 PM
Startup Plans to Begin Selling First 3D-Printed Cars Next Year
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/startup-plans-start-selling-first-3d-printed-cars-next-year-n388766 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/startup-plans-start-selling-first-3d-printed-cars-next-year-n388766)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 09, 2015, 07:21:38 PM
BMW Just Put A 100 Percent Electric Tractor-Trailer On The Road
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/09/3678546/all-electric-big-rig-truck-hits-the-road-in-germany/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/09/3678546/all-electric-big-rig-truck-hits-the-road-in-germany/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 10, 2015, 01:20:23 PM
Here we go!

First Electric Planes Fly Over the English Channel
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/electric-plane-flies-english-channel-32348416 (http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/electric-plane-flies-english-channel-32348416)

Airbus e-Fan electric plane successfully crosses the English Channel
http://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2015/07/watch-the-first-electric-plane-cross-the-english-channel-live-video/ (http://arstechnica.co.uk/cars/2015/07/watch-the-first-electric-plane-cross-the-english-channel-live-video/)

Raw video:  http://www.nbcnews.com/video/electric-plane-flies-across-english-channel-to-france-481770051944 (http://www.nbcnews.com/video/electric-plane-flies-across-english-channel-to-france-481770051944)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 12, 2015, 12:43:39 AM
Solar Impulse 2 plane is grounded temporarily in Hawaii due to battery damage caused by overheating during record flight over the Pacific.
During the first ascent on day one of the flight from Nagoya to Hawaii, the battery temperature increased too much due to over insulation. And while the Mission Team was monitoring this very closely during the mission leg, there was no way to decrease the temperature for the remaining duration of the flight as each daily cycle requires an ascend to 28’000 feet and descend for energy management issues.

The damage to certain parts of the batteries is irreversible and will require repairs and replacements that will take several weeks to work through.
http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/?u=553e7fdb79a7f1570622b070d&id=46378e8e78 (http://us3.campaign-archive2.com/?u=553e7fdb79a7f1570622b070d&id=46378e8e78)


@bertrandpiccard [pilot of SI2]: If no one tells you it's impossible, it means you are not ambitious enough http://t.co/W7njYNxYKw (http://t.co/W7njYNxYKw)
https://twitter.com/bertrandpiccard/status/619986567155707904 (https://twitter.com/bertrandpiccard/status/619986567155707904)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 15, 2015, 11:29:57 PM
 :'(

Solar Impulse grounded until spring of 2016
During the long flight from Japan to Hawaii, the lithium-ion batteries overheated due to too much insulation. 

@andreborschberg: Damage to certain parts is irreversible & requires several weeks to repair. We will stay in Hawaii until early 2016 http://t.co/3u8DZ90w9o (http://t.co/3u8DZ90w9o)

Article: http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33538442 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-33538442)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on July 21, 2015, 05:31:03 PM
Here's a sort of summary of the anti-EV propaganda we're constantly hearing to complement the denialist crap we're used to.

http://www.hybridcars.com/are-consumers-being-manipulated-by-anti-electric-car-propaganda/ (http://www.hybridcars.com/are-consumers-being-manipulated-by-anti-electric-car-propaganda/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 21, 2015, 07:01:01 PM
Experimental electric planes.  With today's technology, expected range is about 230 miles / 370 km.

Electric Propulsion Paired with Digital Control May Usher in a New Era of Flight
http://www.nasa.gov/langley/electric-propulsion-paired-with-digital-control-may-usher-in-a-new-era-of-flight/ (http://www.nasa.gov/langley/electric-propulsion-paired-with-digital-control-may-usher-in-a-new-era-of-flight/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2015, 02:15:29 AM
Netherlands Company Introduces [recycled] Plastic Roads That Are More Durable, Climate Friendly Than Asphalt
The company is also hoping to avoid some carbon dioxide emissions by switching asphalt roads to plastic ones. The carbon footprint of asphalt totals 1.6 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, the company says, so using recycled plastic instead could help cut down on some of those emissions.

Jorritsma said that using plastic instead of asphalt would cut down on the carbon dioxide required to produce, transport, and process asphalt. And, he said, because plastic roads are predicted to last longer than traditional roads, the CO2 associated with regularly replacing the surfaces will also be saved.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/22/3682552/plastic-roads-netherlands/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/07/22/3682552/plastic-roads-netherlands/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2015, 08:27:15 PM
"Plugless":  Fast, wireless, Level 2 charging for the Chevy Volt, for home or business.

https://www.pluglesspower.com (https://www.pluglesspower.com)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on July 23, 2015, 08:30:17 PM
Because it is just so unimaginably hard to plug in! Reminds me of the demand for individually wrapped cheese like product slices.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 23, 2015, 09:10:21 PM
Well, reading the comments for charging sites on PlugShare, broken plugs are often a problem, and this would help solve that.  Also, stationary wireless charging will lead to charging apparatus built into roads, meaning more miles without having to stop, and lessening the problem of limited charging (parking) spaces.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 25, 2015, 12:52:39 AM
In his latest LinkedIn Influencer post, Renault-Nissan Alliance CEO Carlos Ghosn points to encouraging figures for electric vehicles, including the sale of the Alliance's 250,000th EV in early June.
...
Nissan is joining with a startup company to make EVs even more sustainable, as companies begin to seize the opportunity to reuse EV batteries to lower their building energy costs.
http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/how-evs-are-moving-mainstream-by-carlos-ghosn (http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/releases/how-evs-are-moving-mainstream-by-carlos-ghosn)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 26, 2015, 03:33:52 AM
Ten ways autonomous driving could redefine the automotive world.
5. Car insurers might shift their business model.

Car insurers have always provided consumer coverage in the event of accidents caused by human error. With driverless vehicles, auto insurers might shift the core of their business model, focusing mainly on insuring car manufacturers from liabilities from technical failure of their AVs, as opposed to protecting private customers from risks associated with human error in accidents. This change could transform the insurance industry from its current focus on millions of private consumers to one that involves a few OEMs and infrastructure operators, similar to insurance for cruise lines and shipping companies.

Bloomberg video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-21/the-10-ways-driverless-cars-will-redefine-the-future (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-07-21/the-10-ways-driverless-cars-will-redefine-the-future)

The McKinsey article:
http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/automotive_and_assembly/ten_ways_autonomous_driving_could_redefine_the_automotive_world (http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/automotive_and_assembly/ten_ways_autonomous_driving_could_redefine_the_automotive_world)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 30, 2015, 09:07:34 PM
BMW's Plan to Prevent Electric Cars From Overwhelming the Grid
When electricity demand is high, i3 owners can now delay a charge—for a cash rebate.
America’s electricity grid wasn’t designed with electric vehicles in mind, and with an influx of EVs replacing gasoline cars, power utilities have started to feel the strain. If too many EV owners charge up their car during times of high energy demand, the grid can get overwhelmed, leading to higher energy costs and greater risk of blackouts. Avoiding that situation requires the grid to grow or become more efficient in terms of how it manages the power supply.

That’s where a new initiative from BMW called ChargeForward comes into play. The program kicks off this week with a group of 100 Bay Area i3 drivers who have given BMW the ability to rearrange their charging schedules in response to high demand. Using an app, drivers say when they need their car each day and BMW works with Pacific Gas and Electric Company, the local utility, to adjust charging schedules remotely, when necessary, based on real-time energy usage data. The goal is to smooth out demand peaks so the utility doesn’t need to ramp up extra production and consumers don’t have to pay peak rates.
...
If the delayed charge doesn’t free up enough energy capacity for PG&E, BMW has a back-up option: its own in-house energy supply. BMW had a bunch of lithium ion batteries left over from the earlier Mini E electric car pilot project. Instead of letting them waste away in storage, company scientists cobbled them together to create 240 kilowatt-hours of stationary storage at a Mountain View facility, powered by a 100-kilowatt solar panel installation onsite. Aside from supplying the whole office with energy, this allows the company to push its own energy into the grid when needed.
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2015/07/bmws-plan-to-prevent-electric-cars-from-overwhelming-the-grid/399821/ (http://www.citylab.com/commute/2015/07/bmws-plan-to-prevent-electric-cars-from-overwhelming-the-grid/399821/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 31, 2015, 08:29:37 PM
Two more California cities order Proterra electric buses
More California cities are electrifying their transit fleets. Stockton and Porterville recently placed orders with Proterra for two of its new Catalyst battery-electric buses, with funding from the San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District.

Electric bus-maker Proterra says its Catalyst is the most efficient 40-foot transit bus on the market – at 22 MPGe, it’s nearly six times more efficient than the diesel buses it will be replacing. With these latest orders, Proterra now has firm orders for 110 units on its books, as well as 323 more on option.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/two-more-california-cities-order-proterra-electric-buses/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2015, 03:54:07 AM
@TeslaMotors: Charging 1.0 RT @History_Pics Charging an electric car in 1905.
http://t.co/NcVOoWPCHc (http://t.co/NcVOoWPCHc)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2015, 04:07:14 AM
Can the Insurance Industry Survive Driverless Cars?
Insurers brace for a time when automation reduces accidents—and premiums
Premiums consumers pay could drop as much as 60 percent in 15 years as self-driving cars hit the roads...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/can-the-insurance-industry-survive-driverless-cars- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/can-the-insurance-industry-survive-driverless-cars-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 02, 2015, 02:46:44 PM
New York Times editorial.

Congress Should Look Beyond the Gas Tax
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/02/opinion/congress-should-look-beyond-the-gas-tax.html (http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/08/02/opinion/congress-should-look-beyond-the-gas-tax.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 02, 2015, 11:35:37 PM
Meanwhile out in the real world.  Things are not trending in a good direction.  Huge sales of ICE vehicles and ...

Ever since 2008, driving in the United States has been in declining, leading some observers to wonder if we've finally hit "peak car."

Turns out we haven't hit peak car quite yet. Over at Calculated Risk, Bill McBride points out that driving in the United States has surged over the past year — and the 12-month rolling average hit an all-time high this May:...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-c_hKxKbzNzI%2FVYydYPBDKDI%2FAAAAAAAAkF4%2FniCkfaAvjdU%2Fs1600%2FMilesMay2015.PNG&hash=ad699f13694ae976c8db4ae834bf7a61)

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/22/9011109/cheap-gasoline-more-driving (http://www.vox.com/2015/7/22/9011109/cheap-gasoline-more-driving)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Csnavywx on August 03, 2015, 05:50:39 AM
Petroleum consumption is back up to about 20Mbpd on a regular basis -- we're running 500-700k barrels per day ahead of last year.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 03, 2015, 09:36:19 PM
My 2 closest neighbors are all well into their 70's.  In the last 3 months they have bought 4 new cars.  An SUV, a pickup, a sports car and a big Buick.  Before that they had 3 compact cars (1 Prius) and a pickup - none of which were older than about 4-5 years.  One of them owns 2 Porsche's also.  Don't tell Neven they live in 4000+ sq ft houses also.  This town is just flooded with used cars no one wants.

And it is not just cars/trucks.  The ATV dealer just down the road has those suckers rolling off the lot.  Some cost $25,000.  Course here in AZ it is legal to drive your ATV or 4-wheeler on the highways.  Kind of goes with no permit needed to carry concealed I think....
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 03, 2015, 09:51:10 PM
Don't tell Neven they live in 4000+ sq ft houses also.

Yeah, don't tell me that. I hate it.  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 03, 2015, 09:57:35 PM
EV point of data.

I mentioned last year that the low fuel prices were going to have a big impact on sales of ICE vehicles and that that surge in sales would more than overwhelm all the sales of EV's in the US.  Naturally I got some kick back on that by the fan club.  We see the effect of what I was talking about in the record level sales of ICE vehicles.  But it is worse than that.....

Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%. 

If crude prices stay down for another year or two (a distinct possibility) we will  continue to see flat to declining sales of EV's.  As I have stated before when those ICE vehicles are purchased they bring a resource and emissions tail with them which lasts for at least a decade.

But the 'bottom line' in any case is that EV's are not the answer.  NO cars is the answer.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on August 04, 2015, 12:56:18 AM
Jim
I think low crude prices will be with us for some time. In the mid 80's over production of oil was used successfully to break the USSR. I think the same tactic is being utilized, but this time Canada and fracking operators are being hurt more than the intended target.
The Russian populace seems more than ready to stand with Putin & the Saudi's seem delighted to be eliminating their high priced competition.
Fuel prices don't seem to be following crude too closely & this may have more to do with the acceptance of EVs. The drop in the purchasing power of the Canadian dollar will slow the sales of all big ticket items on this side of the border and the loss of thousands of highly paid tar sands jobs will be a godsent to repo operators as they impound the worst gas and diesel hogs.
While low crude prices may discourage EV acceptance, they at least keep the tar sands from expanding.
Terry
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 04, 2015, 03:35:23 AM
The 3 biggest EV sellers include 2 which are at the end of model cycle (the 3rd is Tesla). The EV market is very limited and potential buyers are extremely aware of the options. Almost nobody is interested in buying the old version when a much better model will be available soon.

If there were lots of models from lots of manufacturers we wouldn't see the this effect. Looks like it is going to be quite a while before there's lots of choice in North America. Europe has many new models coming soon but they don't meet the North America safety standards to the letter of the law so they won't be shipped here.

Likely we'll see growth in sales when the 2016 Volt hits the market and even bigger when the new Leaf, Bolt, Sonic, Prius, and Model 3 start selling.

At this point EVs seem like computers used to be - you knew as soon as you bought one it would be obsolete. The EV advances are dramatic so it shouldn't be too long before even an obsolete one makes a decent vehicle.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 04, 2015, 02:44:41 PM
My 2 closest neighbors are all well into their 70's.  In the last 3 months they have bought 4 new cars.  An SUV, a pickup, a sports car and a big Buick.  Before that they had 3 compact cars (1 Prius) and a pickup - none of which were older than about 4-5 years.  One of them owns 2 Porsche's also....

Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%.


Hardly seems kosher to talk about ICE owners with 4 new cars and 4,000 sq ft homes, then strip out Tesla from EV sales.  (See: "Model S - $575 /mo after gas savings" per http://www.teslamotors.com (http://www.teslamotors.com) .)  Particularly since the low-cost, high volume EV's are due in 2017.  Everybody knows that.

Anyway, here are the actual stats for the U.S.:
http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)


I, too, can cherry-pick:  :P

The U.S. led sales of all global electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, selling more than 14,500 of them in the first quarter of 2015. The Tesla Model S was the most popular electric model sold.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/07/08/us-leads-world-in-hybrid-market/29866107/ (http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/07/08/us-leads-world-in-hybrid-market/29866107/)


Global EV stock has surged, rising from about 180,000 electric cars on the road in late 2012 to 665,000 on the road at the end of 2014. The three EVI countries with the highest percentage of global EV stock include the United States (39%), Japan (16%), and China (12%). Vehicle electrification has also gone multimodal, with 46,000 electric buses and 235 million electric two-wheelers deployed by the end of 2014. China is a standout for this multimodal evolution, with 230 million e-bikes, 83,000 electric cars, and 36,500 e-buses on the road in 2014.

http://www.greentechmedia.com/industry/read/evi-releases-the-global-ev-outlook-2015-355910 (http://www.greentechmedia.com/industry/read/evi-releases-the-global-ev-outlook-2015-355910)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on August 04, 2015, 05:31:29 PM
EV point of data.

I mentioned last year that the low fuel prices were going to have a big impact on sales of ICE vehicles and that that surge in sales would more than overwhelm all the sales of EV's in the US.  Naturally I got some kick back on that by the fan club.  We see the effect of what I was talking about in the record level sales of ICE vehicles.  But it is worse than that.....

Sales of EV's in the US are down year on year 2015 vs 2014.  So they are not even rising right now.  And on top of that the top selling EV is the Tesla Model S - the Porsche of EV's.

Strip Tesla sales out of EV sales (as one should since counting them is like counting a Porsche as a compact car) and the year on year decline in EV sales in the US is 12.5%. 

If crude prices stay down for another year or two (a distinct possibility) we will  continue to see flat to declining sales of EV's.  As I have stated before when those ICE vehicles are purchased they bring a resource and emissions tail with them which lasts for at least a decade.

But the 'bottom line' in any case is that EV's are not the answer.  NO cars is the answer.

Maybe NO cars could be achieved by switching to electric bikes and scooters, at least it works in high-density areas. I think these have a much smaller footprint overall, and I know of quite a few people that have switched from cars (or avoided buying cars) thanks to such vehicles.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ralfy on August 04, 2015, 06:38:42 PM
Peak oil, supply issues for other material resources, the size of the potential global middle class, environmental damage, and more may have an effect on car production, and on manufacturing in general.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 04, 2015, 09:55:04 PM
Sigmetnow

I provide analysis (as in no reasonable person counts a Tesla as an improvement over my Chevy Cruze).  Which you seem incapable of doing about 99% of the time.  You  wave your pom poms and cheer for your team. 

I don't cheer for anyone as they all lie and they all are for BAU.  Just like you are.

Go ahead and get all gushy over some less than important issue or technology as that is what you seem to do.  I long ago gave up on folks who think like you do as I don't see you as meaningfully different from the folks you pretend you oppose.

We have real problems and that seems to intimidate most.  I can't help you on that as it is on you to eventually understand it.  All the facts are there you just have to take your blinders off.

I suggest you read posts like  mine about 3 times before you comment as almost always you are sticking your foot in your mouth - as you did this time.  Your reading comprehension is weak. 

Sales are less in the US than last year thru June.  Here is the link do the math.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 04, 2015, 10:08:56 PM
Maybe NO cars could be achieved by switching to electric bikes and scooters, at least it works in high-density areas. I think these have a much smaller footprint overall, and I know of quite a few people that have switched from cars (or avoided buying cars) thanks to such vehicles.

High density areas are amenable to many kinds of improvements.

But most of America is functionally suburban or rural.  Ev's don't help there because they contribute to perpetuating a much bigger problem.  Those horrible 4000 sq ft houses, big yards, riding lawn mowers, 3 car garages, and all that crap.  Most Americans live in places where driving is absolutely required in order to live ones daily life be it commuting, getting food, school issues and such.  Rather than wasting resources on ev's that help support that horrific infrastructure we should be dismantling it.  If you don't live on a farm growing food you should live in a dense urban environment.  All new housing should not just be efficient it should be multi-occupancy and nestled next to mass transit and walkable shopping for basic goods.  Car free.  Most of the housing infrastructure in the US needs to be torn down and recycled.  Thus the point about my neighbors who not only are buying stupid vehicles but living like they are kings of old.  Not only that one of those neighbors lives in that house by himself (he is the one with 4 cars naturally).  In case I am being too subtle ... I hold their kind of lifestyle in contempt.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on August 05, 2015, 01:15:03 AM
Everything in the post numbered 408 on August 4th, 2015, 09:55:04 except the first sentence and last two would more properly belong in email.

In the link provided, the very first sentence after the table of figures attributes the reason for the decline in US sales thru june between last year and this year from 67+ K to 63+ K to (as pointed out by Mr. Ghoti earlier)

" ... the anticipation for 3 new offerings in September is crushing sales dreams this month."

We see no decline in worldwide sales thru june: an increas this year to 200+K from 123+K last year. Not bad.

sidd
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on August 05, 2015, 02:31:05 AM
JimD
The first time I was through your area was about 50 years ago. At that time some of the native population were living in wattle & mud hogans with no power or water and did their cooking in a bee hive oven behind the hogan.
They might have felt that your home was as wasteful of resources as you apparently feel your 4,000 sq ft neighbors are.
The point is that few of us living in 1st world luxury can claim to be part of the solution.
Terry
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 05, 2015, 02:08:49 PM
...
Sales are less in the US than last year thru June.  Here is the link do the math.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

No one is arguing that point.
The disagreement comes in your claim that low gas prices are hurting EV sales.
Most owners I know bought the car because they are simply better cars for their needs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 05, 2015, 07:19:15 PM
Hey, JimD @408.

Your analysis is faulty.  Please test your own reading comprehension, and show where I wrote EV sales are not less than last year.  Then apologize for your rant and personal attack on me.  Go ahead.  I'll wait.

Deleting significant sales numbers of the best car, of any type, ever tested by Consumer Reports -- for 2014 and 2015, and the Best Safety Rating of Any Car Ever Tested by the NHTSA to try to make the argument that EV's are not going to succeed is a laughable cherry pick!  But arguing that a Tesla is no improvement over a Chevy Cruz is a simply a masterpiece of denial.  Unless you are about to be run over by one....  But even then, the Tesla's safety features would probably prevent it.*  Would your Cruz?


*If the system determines that a collision cannot be avoided by braking alone and there is sufficient room for avoidance, steer assist is activated to steer the vehicle away from the pedestrian.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 05, 2015, 07:35:12 PM
Qualcomm enters the wireless EV charging business.

BRUSA licenses Qualcomm Halo wireless charging tech
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/brusa-licenses-qualcomm-halo-wireless-charging-tech/ (https://chargedevs.com/newswire/brusa-licenses-qualcomm-halo-wireless-charging-tech/)

Qualcomm and BRUSA Sign Commercial Wireless Electric Vehicle Charging License Agreement
https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2015/07/29/qualcomm-and-brusa-sign-commercial-wireless-electric-vehicle-charging (https://www.qualcomm.com/news/releases/2015/07/29/qualcomm-and-brusa-sign-commercial-wireless-electric-vehicle-charging)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 05, 2015, 09:00:10 PM
Sigmetnow

Whether one keeps the Teslas in or takes them out the sales thru June are less than 2014.  The point about taking the Teslas out is that they are a luxury sports car.  By definition there is no luxury car which helps solve any kind of problem except going fast.  Consumer reports exists to help consumers consume and for no other reason.  Who gives a crap what they say?  Leaving Teslas out demonstrates more realistic numbers.  For anyone to suggest that having extremely low gas prices does not have an effect on sales of ev's all I can say is that has no meaningful logic in it.  Say 40,000 people fit the claim that some are waiting for new models.  Near 17 million cars are going to be sold in the US this year.  About 100,000 will be ev's.  I think we can agree that that is not a number which has any significance.  Just the surge in sales of ice vehicles in the US since gas has dropped exceeds the total number of ev's on the road world wide by a significant amount.  ev's are not gaining ground.  Even the most optimistic estimate for replacing the ice fleet with ev's could not come up with a date earlier than 2030 and more likely 2040.  Either date is far too late.

This foolish fixation with EV's only happens because those enamored with the technology are not really trying to address the core problem.  It is greenwash of the highest order.  Trying to replace ice vehicles with ev's is window dressing.  It makes no difference if it does not help fix the problems and it doesn't.

What having cars and/or ev's does is help maintain for a longer period of time the hugely inappropriate rural/suburban infrastructure.  It is a way of prolonging a lifestyle which absolutely must go away if there is going to be any chance what-so-ever to maintain some semblance of civilization.

Once again the core problems which have to be solved simultaneously are very excessive population levels, wildly exceeding global carrying capacity and mitigating/adapting to climate change.  Your ev's help with none of these issues therefore they are not only not important emphasizing them makes things worse.

That is the filter which must govern all things going forward if we are to have any chance at all.  I occasionally lose my temper over folks being incapable of keeping their focus on what really matters.  That people are consistently incapable of this is easily explained by keeping in mind the limits of human nature.  But it always pisses me off and sometimes I just want to hit them in the head with a 2X4.  So no apology because as far as I am concerned you had it coming.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 02:59:40 PM
I feel so sorry for you.  Mental illness is a heart-breaking condition.  I urge you to seek help.

Good-bye.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 03:01:28 PM
An oil field worker is bringing electric cars to the heart of U.S. oil country.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099426_oil-hauler-brings-electric-cars-to-heart-of-oklahoma-oil-country (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099426_oil-hauler-brings-electric-cars-to-heart-of-oklahoma-oil-country)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 03:03:55 PM
@elonmusk: Almost ready to release highway autosteer and parallel autopark software update

@elonmusk: The car will learn over time, but there is a min caliber of starting quality.

@CatherineMotuz: @elonmusk But will one car learn from other cars?

@elonmusk: @CatherineMotuz yes


@alipoursamar: @elonmusk would it be international? UK?

@elonmusk: @alipoursamar all regions


@elonmusk: Final corner case is dealing with low contrast lane markings (faded white on grey concrete) while driving into the sun at dusk

@tallakt: @elonmusk how about a lcd screen in front of the camera to mask away the sun?

@elonmusk: @tallakt Various forms of shades are being considered. May not be necessary though.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/627040381729906688
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 03:06:51 PM
Tesla Falls on Sales Target Cut to as Few as 50,000 Vehicles
Tesla said it now aims to deliver 50,000 to 55,000 vehicles this year, compared with a previous target of 55,000.
...
Reaching the initial target may be a stretch because some interior suppliers might not be able to increase the flow of high-quality parts fast enough to meet the Model X production plan, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk said on a conference call with analysts. Because the SUV and the existing Model S share the same assembly line, a shortfall by one Model X supplier could slow output of both vehicles.

“The pace of progress is really dependent on which supplier is the slowest and least lucky,” Musk said on the call. “It’s a complex product, with thousands of suppliers.”

Some analysts had been skeptical about Tesla’s plans to increase deliveries by 74 percent this year, especially with so much of the increase coming late in the year.

Musk insisted that the SUV will be worth the wait.

“The Model X is a particularly challenging car to build, maybe the hardest car to build in the world,” he said. “But it is an amazing vehicle and I think it will blow people away.”

The company said it still expects to begin delivering the SUVs in late September and that final testing is “going well.” But even a one-week delay could reduce output by 800 vehicles, Tesla said.

“Simply put, in a choice between a great product or hitting quarterly numbers, we will take the former,” Musk and Chief Financial Officer Deepak Ahuja said in a letter to shareholders, posted on the company’s website. “To build long-term value, our first priority always has been, and still is, to deliver great cars.”
...
“We have been producing release candidate Model X bodies in our new body shop equipped with more than 500 robots as we fine-tune and validate our production processes,” Tesla said in the letter.

As production of the SUV increases, the company will become free cash-flow positive, probably near the end of this year and “certainly” for the first quarter of 2016, Ahuja said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-05/tesla-falls-after-lowering-sales-goal-to-as-few-as-50-000-autos (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-05/tesla-falls-after-lowering-sales-goal-to-as-few-as-50-000-autos)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 03:09:23 PM
Nevada Electric Vehicle Peograms and Resources
The State of Nevada recognizes that electric vehicles (EVs) and Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs) will play a key role in the State's transportation future, by offering a lower-cost fueling option for drivers and being more environmentally friendly. This site highlights some of the initiatives Nevada is taking to promote EV and AFV use in the State.
http://energy.nv.gov/Programs/Nevada_Electric_Vehicle_Programs_and_Resources/ (http://energy.nv.gov/Programs/Nevada_Electric_Vehicle_Programs_and_Resources/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 06, 2015, 07:01:44 PM
Yikes!  Wireless charging can't come soon enough.   ;D

Tesla reveals prototype of snakelike automatic charger
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-reveals-a-prototype-of-snakelike-automatic-charger/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 06, 2015, 09:45:28 PM
Tesla SUV?  ??? :-\

So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I? Will they ever?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 07, 2015, 02:09:20 PM
Tesla SUV?  ??? :-\

So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I? Will they ever?

Despair not.  As production volumes increase, costs go down and smaller cars make economic sense to produce.  Few folks would spend over $100k on a tiny car, even if it were a Tesla.

The $30k-range Model 3, due in 2017, will be a sedan -- smaller than the Model S, which is a pretty big car.  (Elon wanted to call it the Model E, to go with the Models S and X, but it Ford claimed rights to that name.)  Elon has said most of the bells and whistles of bigger Teslas will be available for the Model 3, but probably not as standard equipment.

I haven't seen much about Tesla plans after the Model 3.  Maybe a light truck?  But stay tuned.


This is from 2014:
http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/07/elon-musk-lays-future-plans-tesla/ (http://www.triplepundit.com/2014/07/elon-musk-lays-future-plans-tesla/)

Tesla embraces the masses with $35,000 Model 3
http://www.techtimes.com/articles/10635/20140719/tesla-embraces-the-masses-with-35-000-model-3.htm (http://www.techtimes.com/articles/10635/20140719/tesla-embraces-the-masses-with-35-000-model-3.htm)

Edited for clarity and to add second link, re name change.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 08, 2015, 10:30:31 PM
Imagine thousands, or hundreds of thousands, of autonomous drones delivering physical packages (food?) the way the internet delivers information today.  Replacing many full-sized delivery vehicles, or even your own trips to the store.

NASA video:  developing drone flight plan software.

@NASA: We’re helping shape the next era of aviation. Learn about our efforts to manage low altitude commercial drone flight
https://t.co/nTs2fWASHg.
https://twitter.com/nasa/status/630063892337590272
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2015, 12:50:29 AM
Norway's Goal: All New Cars Will Be Emissions-Free by 2025 to Cut Carbon
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099324_norways-goal-all-new-cars-will-be-electric-by-2025-to-cut-carbon (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099324_norways-goal-all-new-cars-will-be-electric-by-2025-to-cut-carbon)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 09, 2015, 01:04:30 PM
So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I?

What did you have in mind? How about a Renault Twizy?

https://www.renault.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/twizy.html (https://www.renault.co.uk/vehicles/new-vehicles/twizy.html)

(https://www.cdn.renault.com/content/dam/Renault/master/vehicules/twizy-m09e-ph1/design/renault-twizy-M09eph1-cargo-design-003.jpg.ximg.l_4_m.smart.jpg)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2015, 03:55:24 PM
So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I?

What did you have in mind? How about a Renault Twizy?

I know the Twizy, it's a scooter with a roof.  :)

I'm thinking more of a light-weight VW Golf with no 20" monitor screens and other superfluous gadgetry. I'm driving an Opel Combo (CNG) right now - oh wait, you saw it 2 years ago, Jim  ;D - and it's perfect, but a bit too big. That was very convenient as we have been building our house, but we could do with a smaller car net year or so. Maybe something like a Leaf, but without all the gadgets, and definitely not a SUV.

Or maybe no car at all. That's also something we're seriously considering.

Let's just say that Tesla annoys me.  :)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 09, 2015, 07:27:01 PM
Let's just say that Tesla annoys me.  :)

Tesla is merely breaking down barriers; and making their patents available for free, so other companies can run with them and do different things.  Elon Musk is more than happy to see people buy other electric cars (after his are spoken for, of course -- which doesn't seem to be a problem   
:) ).  He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.  Small car, or no car: go for it, Neven! 

When fully-autonomous cars become a thing, significantly fewer cars will be needed, anyway.  8)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2015, 09:34:00 PM
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 09, 2015, 11:09:42 PM
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?

Well, they are reducing the amount of gasoline needed in the average car.
Unfortunately, they can't start be building 500,000 small cars/year as they simply don't have the production capability.
Per, "the not so secret master plan" start with a high cost, very low quantity proof of concept.  Then move to lower cost, higher quantity cars.  Using the funds from the first cars to grow their production capability.

If you are looking for a more minimalistic car, check out the Miev.  As long as the range. Meets your needs it is a great little car.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JayW on August 09, 2015, 11:13:36 PM
I can see merit in trying to replace gas guzzling SUVs with an electric alternative.  Unfortunately, people want their big SUV, and the more you tell them they should downsize, the more they dig in their heels.  I'm not saying it's right, it's just how people react in my experiences.   Replacing 40mpg cars with electric vehicles is extremely important, but removing the biggest offenders might also prove effective.  Full disclosure, I've owned a few Tesla share for a while now.  So I'm an Elon fanboy.   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on August 09, 2015, 11:27:40 PM
He wants nothing less than a complete upheaval of the industry.

And so he builds a SUV? Wow, what an upheaval.  ::)

What's the first word in the mantra reduce, re-use, recycle?

Well, they are reducing the amount of gasoline needed in the average car.
Unfortunately, they can't start be building 500,000 small cars/year as they simply don't have the production capability.
Per, "the not so secret master plan" start with a high cost, very low quantity proof of concept.  Then move to lower cost, higher quantity cars.  Using the funds from the first cars to grow their production capability.

If you are looking for a more minimalistic car, check out the Miev.  As long as the range. Meets your needs it is a great little car.

I like the master plan, it makes sense, it has a good chance of succeeding (especially as it includes another important aspect - make the high cost initial version into a fashion item for super-rich, then hope everybody wants to imitate them). My only problem is that by the time it's come to serious fruition, nationally and then across the globe, we'll be way past any reasonable climate tipping points. Still, Elon Musk does what he can and I admire him for that.

(NOT trying to restart heated arguments)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 09, 2015, 11:53:00 PM
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?

As much as the geek in me likes all the stuff that Musk does, it looks like Green BAU with a heavy dose of personality worship.

What will be done, will be done, I guess.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2015, 12:53:07 AM
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?
...

I think you have it somewhat backwards.  Musk's goal all along has been to reduce the cost of a great EV by using the economies of scale:  more units of a model, built for less cost, as the years go by.  Because to build lots of good-quality cars more cheaply, you need a big factory, big suppliers, and a lot of technical and customer support.  That doesn't happen overnight.

This is a crude Tesla timeline, showing the models chronologically.  Maybe it will help:

Tesla Roadster      Tiny production, much hand-built. $125k+ each.
Model S.               Small production.   $70-100k+
High-end SUV.       Ramped production. 500 new robots in the factory.  $70-80k
Model 3, smaller sedan for the masses.  Gigafactory producing battery packs (biggest cost of car) more cheaply, at high volumes. High production, $30-35k               
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 10, 2015, 12:59:52 AM
I thought the Tesla S was the master plan, but now SUVs. What's next? Pick-up trucks? Vans? Tanks? Luxury yachts?

As much as the geek in me likes all the stuff that Musk does, it looks like Green BAU with a heavy dose of personality worship.

What will be done, will be done, I guess.

The Model S is the second stage of the Master Plan.
The first was the Roadster.
The final step in the plan is the Model 3.

The Model X is a variation on the Model S.  Step 2B if you want to fit it into the plan.

If the Model S is taking Audi A8s, Mercedes S Class, and BMW 7 series gas guzzlers off the road, I'd say it is going according to plan.
If Tesla drives competition from other manufacturers, so much the better.

Will we reduce our CO2 output in time (or is it already to late)?  I don't know.  But it is progress.  If someone comes up with a way for us to progress further, faster, I'll be pulling for them too.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on August 10, 2015, 02:34:07 AM
I'm a huge fan of Tesla - what Musk is trying to do and his genius in executing it.

The Model 3 mid-sized sedan is not the final goal either. Musk wants electric vehicles to take over completely (except in rockets!) Of course that includes compact and sub-compact cars and Musk has talked about those.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: solartim27 on August 10, 2015, 02:56:48 AM
This might have been a rebroadcast, but it was the first time I heard it.  Lots of other good stories on the shows main page

Car-Free To Become Carefree In Helsinki
http://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=15-P13-00032&segmentID=2 (http://loe.org/shows/segments.html?programID=15-P13-00032&segmentID=2)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on August 10, 2015, 06:23:49 AM
Musk is playing the numbers. Maximum bang for the buck is from reducing consumption at the high end.

If you make a freight truck 60,000lb,  5 miles/gallon get 6 miles a gallon thats a huge win. because over 30 mile, you save one gallon. If you make a small car get 35 mile/gallon instead of 30, you need to drive 200+ mile to save that gallon.

Consider now total miles driven by big and small, and it gets interesting quick. Freight trucks stay on the road a lot longer than Joe Blow goin to work.

But for SUV vs tiny car, similar numbers apply, even absent the discrepancy in total miles driven. SUV man drives about the same as small car man. First make the big ones more efficient. Saving the big gas hogs a lot of money may chafe, but also the quickest way to their black little hearts is thru their wallets.

or you could establish a dictatorship, decree small cars for only those that need them, massive public transit infrastructure and unicorns in the USA. Or await a political revolution, or work to create one. Musk is doing what he can, given what he sees. Others see things differently.

sidd
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2015, 01:08:02 PM
With Tesla Motors, Musk has tried to revamp the way cars are manufactured and sold, while building out a worldwide fuel distribution network at the same time. Instead of hybrids, which in Musk lingo are suboptimal compromises, Tesla strives to make all-electric cars that people lust after and that push the limits of technology. Tesla does not sell these cars through dealers; it sells them on the Web and in Apple-like galleries located in high-end shopping centers. Tesla also does not anticipate making lots of money from servicing its vehicles, since electric cars do not require the oil changes and other maintenance procedures of traditional cars. The direct sales model embraced by Tesla stands as a major affront to car dealers used to haggling with their customers and making their profits from exorbitant maintenance fees. Tesla’s recharging stations now run alongside many of the major highways in the United States, Europe, and Asia and can add hundreds of miles of oomph back to a car in about twenty minutes. These so-called supercharging stations are solar-powered, and Tesla owners pay nothing to refuel. While much of America’s infrastructure decays, Musk is building a futuristic end-to-end transportation system that would allow the United States to leapfrog the rest of the world.
...
...The perceived lack of emotion is a symptom of Musk sometimes feeling like he’s the only one who really grasps the urgency of his mission. He’s less sensitive and less tolerant than other people because the stakes are so high. Employees need to help solve the problems to the absolute best of their ability or they need to get out of the way.

Musk has been pretty up front about these tendencies. He’s implored people to understand that he’s not chasing momentary opportunities in the business world. He’s trying to solve problems that have been consuming him for decades. During our conversations, Musk went back to this very point over and over again, making sure to emphasize just how long he’d thought about electric cars and space. The same patterns are visible in his actions as well. When Musk announced in 2014 that Tesla would open-source all of its patents, analysts tried to decide whether this was a publicity stunt or if it hid an ulterior motive or a catch. But the decision was a straightforward one for Musk. He wants people to make and buy electric cars. Man’s future, as he sees it, depends on this. If open-sourcing Tesla’s patents means other companies can build electric cars more easily, then that is good for mankind, and the ideas should be free. The cynic will scoff at this, and understandably so. Musk, however, has been programmed to behave this way and tends to be sincere when explaining his thinking—almost to a fault.


Excerpt From: Vance, Ashlee. “Elon Musk.” HarperCollinsPublishers, 2015-03-27. iBooks.

Check out this book on the iBooks Store: https://itun.es/us/FtE50.l
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 10, 2015, 03:06:11 PM
Concerning Tesla and other electrical cars I would like to point to the posts #201-#203 on page 5 in this thread:

Most electrical cars today are not more CO2 efficient than modern combustion cars. Unless you have a nearly 100% renewable electricity source like in Norway _And_ use the car and its battery long enough to pay of the extra effort in production.

In countries with less than 50% renewables in the grid the efficient injection-diesel cars are still the best choice - unless you have poor quality of that fuel like in some states of the USA. For such reasons e.g. Mercedes gives no waranty for the diesel engine in such countries so you can actually not get them there... Maybe buy a smaller car and clean your diesel fuel first, since that is green BAU state of the art.

So I think that Tesla-concept is just live-style Green-Washing and not even green BAU, since that is defined by the more efficient and smaller cars. Also the scaling is no good argument, since that works in general in the car industry. Furthermore the "first the expensive and later the cheap models" is also a general trend in the car industry - compare that with BMW i8->i3 or that Porsche 918 spyder -> Audi -> VW chain. No - those are all nice life-style accessoires made to impress the neighbours or the girls. None of them safes the world a bit, but a BMW i3 makes you look nice at the tennis court with its "sustainability from the ground"-marketing. That is all about EV today: feelings without reason.
 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 10, 2015, 10:34:45 PM
Once again the answer is not ev's it is no cars.

But that being said there is a lot of missed information regarding Tesla by those who have fallen in love with Musk's image.  It is still a business.  The hype around Musk and his ventures is remarkable but there is a reality underneath all his marketing and 'philosophical' programming too.  None of his various technology ventures (not counting Paypal and his first software company) have ever made a profit absent tax credits and subsidies.

I note in its most recent market report Tesla shows a quarterly loss of $154 million and that it is losing $4000 per car it sells.

In a business sense Tesla is far from a success yet and may well never make it there.  Tesla has made a 'profit' in only 1 business quarter in its entire existence and that was due to various credits and subsidies.  The company is projecting that it may reach positive cash flow 3rd quarter this year.  The company projects that it will become profitable in 2020 by standard accounting principals. But that projection is based upon sales of 319,000 vehicles in 2020.  When total US sales for all ev vehicles this year is going to be about 100,000.  And there will be competing vehicles from every manufacturer.  So in a practical sense this means that to have any chance of this occurring total US sales of ev's in 2020 would need to be well above 1 million a year.

I note that looking through a host of ev sales projections for 2020 there are none which come up with numbers that are even close to that except for ev advocate sites similar to those found that promote the fossil fuel industry (in other words they have no credibility) - and even their numbers fall short of the totals needed in almost all cases.  And none of those projections have taken into account the current crash in oil prices which make ice vehicles far more competitive in a dollars out per day for the consumer.  And if oil prices stay way down for 2-3 years as many are thinking is likely now - what then?

If we want to fix things and not just play with cool toys we have to vet all ideas and efforts as to how they address our fundamental problems.  If they do not pass muster we need to move on until we find ideas which do address those fundamental problems.  Like getting rid of cars, stopping burning coal, getting rid of 98% of the politicians we have now, demolishing the oligarchy, and tons of other worthy approaches. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 10, 2015, 11:58:51 PM
Elon Musk:  'Profits Are Not Our Primary Goal'.  :)
http://www.inc.com/elon-musk/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-profits-are-not-our-primary-goal.html (http://www.inc.com/elon-musk/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-profits-are-not-our-primary-goal.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2015, 12:20:47 AM
Carlos Ghosn, head of the Renault-Nissan alliance:
If you are worried about the total CO2, there is an obvious solution. It is to stop the old cars. This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” But he says emissions limits will also be important in accelerating electric car sales.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2015, 01:26:45 AM
Elon Musk:  'Profits Are Not Our Primary Goal'.  :)
http://www.inc.com/elon-musk/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-profits-are-not-our-primary-goal.html (http://www.inc.com/elon-musk/elon-musk-tesla-spacex-profits-are-not-our-primary-goal.html)


I have watched that before.  Have you actually watched it?  I doubt it because you need to listen to it and understand what his real interests are.  There is a lot out there on what Musk says he is really interested in...and it is not fixing climate change, carrying capacity or over population.  He is firmly wedded to the green-BAU camp and it appears that his main reason to do that is this...

He says he believes that the only hope for humanity is to increase our chances of survival by rapidly accelerating space exploration and technology so that we can colonize other planets.  He has said he thinks this is the most important thing to do.  If that is true then it means he has come to the conclusion that it is not really possible to fix our coming problems doesn't it? 

So the man who holds some billions of dollars in stock in a couple of companies which have not made a dime says that profits are not the main point.  These companies only exist because of subsidies and the hope of future profits.  I assure you that the investors in Tesla are ONLY there to make profits.  If they decide those profits are not coming they will run for the exits.  This is business and Musk knows this. 

It is foolish and naive to think that anyone in Musk's position says or does anything without an agenda or a reason.  I would be very careful about taking anything he says at face value.  Or anyone for that matter.  Sit down and figure it out for yourself and see if what you are being told make any sense.  Is his agenda really what he says it is? That it is all about getting to space?  Or is it really all about being clever and making a few billion from his supposedly 'sustainable' cars (an oxymoron) so that he can spend it on space stuff? Or what? Hard to say but neither one does us any good does it. 

Cars do not fix our problems but they might make Musk a few billion that he can spend on space as that appears to be his real focus.  One can line up a host of PhD's in physics who have written articles on all the aspects of space flight and colonizing other planets.  This is a sci-fi pipe dream and will remain such for a very long time - its just physics. If we do not fix our problems on this spaceship we are not going to ever have a chance at what he wants.  His focus is misplaced if it is honest.  But he is a great marketer - reminds me of The Donald in a lot of ways.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2015, 01:42:06 AM
Carlos Ghosn, head of the Renault-Nissan alliance:
If you are worried about the total CO2, there is an obvious solution. It is to stop the old cars. This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” But he says emissions limits will also be important in accelerating electric car sales.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/01/are-we-on-the-brink-of-an-electric-car-revolution)

You bolded the wrong parts. 

Carlos Ghosn, the fast-talking head of the Renault-Nissan alliance, is not keen to be drawn on targets for electric car sales. A 2011 prediction of 1.5m Renault-Nissan electric vehicles by 2016 turned out to be wildly optimistic. The group just passed the 250,000 mark.

...This would be radical, but politically extremely difficult.” ...
 

Another fast talking car salesman who's job 1-a million is to make profits for his investors.  If he doesn't he gets to hit the road.

...“When we know exactly where the EU, US, China will be heading in 2030, I can tell you exactly how much electric cars will be needed,” he says, referring to a crunch UN summit in Paris in November....

Well I think we can be pretty certain that the US and China will play the standard game of promising good sounding stuff and delivering nothing.  There is zero near term chance of a dramatic shift in US direction and policy.  And there is a fair chance that much of what the US is doing will be reversed in the next couple of years as there is a huge wave of political will to do just that.

..The reasons for people being relatively slow to buy electric cars are simple, Ghosn says: “If there is a price penalty, they just don’t buy. If there is range anxiety, they just don’t buy.”..

Boy that sounds familiar doesn't it?  Prices in the US are going to be kept down for some time due to oil market dynamics and the complete inability in the US to ever implement a tax system which will penalize ICE vehicles.  If you can't make ICE vehicles too expensive people will continue to buy them.  And their emission tail is large and long. 

Anyway this is boring.  Cars are not the solution.  No cars is the solution.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on August 11, 2015, 01:53:47 AM
   When discussing Musk's plans and motives, please be aware that he is heavily involved in a third company as well as in Tesla (electric cars) and SpaceX (rockets).

  That company is Solar City - which is at the forefront of expanding the uptake of solar power.

  Electric cars plus renewable energy goes a long way towards reducing our emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as our unsustainable hunter-gatherer dependence on fossil fuels.

 
  In my view Musk's programme is evidently a solution to those.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2015, 02:31:51 PM
If you don't like electric vehicles, fine -- don't buy one.  But please explain how we will eliminate the 13% of global emissions from the transport sector, yet still get supplies to businesses... and goods, including food, to people... and people to their jobs... without relocating a majority of the population -- by, say, 2050 -- without them. 
(For the sake of this experiment, let's say "Curl up and die" is not an option.) ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 11, 2015, 03:11:24 PM
Jim, I agree with you, cars are not the perfect answer.
Yet, we have a path to lower emissions through electric cars.

What is your path towards eliminating cars?

Yes, your goal of zero cars will do more for cutting CO2.
Yet I see no path to reaching that goal other than total collapse.

So I will promote the goal that cuts our CO2 from personal transportation in half and has a chance, rather than your plan that has zero chance, thus results on no decrease in CO2.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 11, 2015, 03:47:27 PM
Sure, but why SUVs? It's like saying 'we're going to replace our napalm bombs with cluster bombs', whereas we should return to hand grenades to minimize collateral damage. It's like saying to your baby to not stick its fingers in the outlet, and then give it a razor blade to play with. It's like a nun saying that God has forbidden sexual intercourse, but anal is okay.

Is electrical SUVs the only way we can cut CO2? Or can we just build no-nonsense electrical cars (like the EV-1 that was built, I don't know, two decades ago?) and make SUVs a social taboo, by constantly repeating that they're for stupid, selfish people?

No, demi-god Elon says electric SUVs will be our fastest highway to salvation, and thus it must be. This is just Breakthrough Institute-grade trolling where we solve the problem by not talking about it. It's insane.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 11, 2015, 04:29:05 PM
If you don't like electric vehicles, fine -- don't buy one.  But please explain how we will eliminate the 13% of global emissions from the transport sector, yet still get supplies to businesses... and goods, including food, to people... and people to their jobs... without relocating a majority of the population -- by, say, 2050 -- without them. 
(For the sake of this experiment, let's say "Curl up and die" is not an option.) ;)
In my case: I like electric cars because the drive so nice. But they produce more CO2 using Germanys' power grid than my current combustion car (<100 g/km). So EV's are not the best way to cut emission in case you need a car for something.

So the green BAU path here is: If you really believe to need a car (yes, it is mainly a matter of believing) go with an efficient <100 g/km car.

Better:
For short distance go with car sharing. E.g. Cambio has a lot of EV's for small distances and if used by many people the battery pays off fast. Furthermore, in our city they have a 100% renewables contract.
For larger distances go with the fast trains - faster than a car and cheaper than private car total cost of ownership. And way less CO2, of course.

Best:
Do not use a car. Cars are not made as something that is needed to get somewhere but as something you wish to impress someone else with. So it is not really needed.

Let me cite a very nice book from Marcel Hänggi: http://www.booklooker.de/B%FCcher/Marcel-H%E4nggi+Fortschrittsgeschichten/id/A01Lw5jW01ZZJ (http://www.booklooker.de/B%FCcher/Marcel-H%E4nggi+Fortschrittsgeschichten/id/A01Lw5jW01ZZJ)

In former days we were looking for "progress" (towards something desirable, e.g. could be a healthy planet) but today we are satisfied with "innovation". E.g. it is good enough for us if something is new and different but not necessary better or good at all. We are satisfied by wasting time, money, the planet and such....
And he includes also a nice chapter about cars: Cars (especially individual combustion) were not made to be of use from the beginning. E.g. when Benz wanted to export the first cars to Swizerland that was refused because the cars were not considered to be reliable. Benz explained them, that that is not the reason to buy a car. Instead he was selling the feeling of the power, the possibiliy to proudly repair the car and to show up late at the party with oil on the hands... It is sold to impress the people and especially the girls. That is what German car manufacturers are selling: Good feelings and image.  So: You do not _need_ that.

Unfortunately that car virus did spread and the infrastructure was build around the cars and though it looks like you need it. But today the cities are pedestrian area in the center (people friendly "red-flag act" area), there is a good public transportation and a railway station just in the center. So it is changing back since the Eighties.

You may think you need the car still to buy the beer crates. But actually you want the beer and someone else should bring it to you in such a SDV: http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/our-vehicles/work/ (http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/our-vehicles/work/)  That would be innovation which is also progress. Tesla' cars and BMW i8 or i3 are innovations just without any measurable progress, I think.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on August 11, 2015, 05:29:17 PM
Of course when switching to EVs the power grid must also switch to renewables. Theoretically, Musk's plan (or the green-BAU plan) says that by the time the grid is transitioned to solar/wind ("soon"), the small EVs will be ready and be sold like hot buns in time to save the world. In the meantime Tesla etc. are getting experienced with big expensive EVs and luring the selfish celebrities to buy this stuff and serve as examples that EVs are cool. Nice plan.

The only thing is that this transition will not happen in time when taking the BAU approach, IMHO. Not even close. The transition speed is painfully slow. Only total mobilization of society (in many countries together) can fix it in time.
So I can see where Musk is headed, and it's definitiely better than nothing. As someone posted above, at least he's doing something with >0% probability of success.
But what if Musk's marketing message causes people to believe in the green-BAU plan and delay mobilization until it will be way too late? Then that >0% comes at a heavy price.
Maybe if all sane people would market together the concept of mobilization, there would be a >0% chance of doing that?
Personally I believe no mobilization will come, but I totally get Jim's stand.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2015, 05:49:30 PM
Sure, but why SUVs?
For the same reason we put cheese on the kids' broccoli or dressing on salad.  If we didn't, kids (or most people) wouldn't eat veggies at all, which is an even less healthy alternative.  To grow the business, Musk needs to make cars people will buy.  The U.S. buys expensive SUVs.  Musk will produce many times more small sedans than SUVs, once he gets his high-volume/low cost car factories up and running.  I don't think you should fault him for building a few electric SUVs to finance the growth he needs to get to his goal. They are better than gas SUVs, which are all too readily available.

When cell phones were the size of bricks, people bought them for what they could do, not for the larger size.  As car technology improves, they'll fit more capability into smaller cars.  Example: rooomy seating for 4 by facing the front seats backwards, once automomous cars no longer have steering wheels, or transmission floor humps.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 11, 2015, 06:17:53 PM
Example: rooomy seating for 4 by facing the front seats backwards, once automomous cars no longer have steering wheels, or transmission floor humps.
like that one: http://www.cnet.de/88143289/autonomes-fahren-daimler-fuehrt-mercedes-f-015-auf-der-ces-vor/ (http://www.cnet.de/88143289/autonomes-fahren-daimler-fuehrt-mercedes-f-015-auf-der-ces-vor/) ? A first class seat with table in the train is way faster and better. But that Mercedes "solution" would actually compare to an old luxury car with own driver...

No - Tesla is not needed. Its cars are way worse (in terms of sustainability) than the products of conventional car manufacturers and even their cars are not efficient enough for green BAU. The cars are optimized for feeling and image - just like your SUV's but including that "green image" without real sustainability. But they claim that sustainability image - they are closer to the truth than Musk but still far enough to call them liars. Look at that by yourself and compare: http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/corporation/bmwi/sustainability.html (http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/corporation/bmwi/sustainability.html)
(edit: Found the english version)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 11, 2015, 09:57:02 PM
Sigmetnow you have been around this blog easily long enough to know and understand what I am talking about if you had taken the time to read the posts on all the subjects here.  If you had you just would not make the comments you do and hold the positions you do.  That you have not figured it out yet says a lot. 

Slow Wing, Zythryn, oren I will go over some (just some) of the reasons why the approach you are advocating will not work.  But if you really do have the desire to dig into this subject (and I presume you have some interest or you would not be here) you need to spend most of your time you can spend here going back and reading over a couple of dozen of the topics in the Policy and Solutions, Consequences, Science and The Rest.  Over the last couple of years all of the items I will gloss over below have been covered in detail.  It would take weeks to repeat all of it here but the meat of all of the reasons is there.

First.  The problem we are trying to solve is not how to maintain US lifestyles - whether that is with black-BAU technologies or green-BAU ones.  The problem is thus:  We (the human race) is confronting an existential situation as regards the combination of rapidly worsening climate change, wildly exceeding the Earth's carrying capacity, and horrible and rapidly rising global population numbers.  This trifecta of problems is systematic and intertwined.  None of them can be solved independently of the others.  All have to be solved simultaneously.  By far the most critical leg of this is population.

It has been shown via innumerable ways that if we do not dramatically reduce global population numbers (starting about 10 years ago) and have the numbers down far below current levels by say 2050 we are facing civilizational collapse.  I probably do not need to say this, but the prospect of a global effort to do the above population reduction (in a humane as possible manner) has zero prospects of any implementation.  We will get there one way or the other though,

Humanity currently exceeds global carrying capacity by a wide margin.  Studies conducted which clearly intended to minimize the numbers still come up with 1.5-2 times carrying capacity.  More conservative numbers calculated considering all factors come up with numbers like 3-5 times.  We are burning our candle from both ends no matter how you look at it.  As population rapidly increases (UN projections are plus 2 billion by 2050) we inevitably get pushed further away from equilibrium.  One of the prime goals of global capitalism is to grow everyone's economies and raise the standards of living of everyone (the great consumer society) from the developing world to the 3rd world to the 4th.  Such standard of living improvement is one of the hallmarks of the socially humane and the political progressives, as well as the conservative business let's make a big profit faction.  Everyone wants to do this.  But..and it is a big but...what happens to those carrying capacity numbers if we add 2 billion to our 7.3 billion and then raise everyone's standard of living?  Well duh!  We run even further past carrying capacity equilibrium.  To add insult to injury we must now also add in the factor of where is the climate going to be in 2050.  It is certain it will be much less beneficial to us humans.  Almost all of the effects of climate change are going to be negative regarding global carrying capacity numbers - very negative.  So whether it is Black-BAU or Green-BAU it is still BAU.  BAU drives those numbers rapidly towards disaster.  For it is certain that the tipping point will come where our population and resource consumption cause collapse.  A little number to help you realize the depth of this problem of not addressing population is this.  If everyone on Earth had a carbon footprint equal to the average African (a bottom of the barrel number that no one will willingly accept) and the population stayed at current levels emissions would still be some 7- Gtonnes.  In other words CO2 levels do not stabilize.  Add in positive climate change generated feedbacks and CO2 likely rises quite a bit faster than even that.  Add in 2 billion extra people and it is even worse.

Anyone who has actually read my hundreds of lengthy posts here knows that I am very motivated to try and fix that trifecta of problems.  I, however, have long lost the patience with those who are incapable of conquering their fears and looking the situation in the eye.  I do not believe in miracles and I do not depend on god to come down and save us from our stupidity - as most do.  I believe when a solution or project or technology is proposed that it be vetted against our dire needs.  And if it is found wanting then it is discarded or put in proper perspective.

EV's solve none of the above.  Yes the technology has uses.  Just as solar and wind do as well.  But they - none of them - actually can solve the above trifecta.  So we put them in their proper place. 

Let's step back for a minute.  Given the above and taking into account human nature and all the complexities of what makes and maintains a civilization like ours it is certain that we are not capable of implementing solutions which would meaningfully or substantially address our core problems. This means that collapse is certain and one can make a good argument that it is underway already.  Saying the above is just acknowledging reality.  It is not 'rolling over and dying" as some foolishly think.  The first step in being able to make progress is to accept reality so that one can deal with it.  Sticking ones head in the sand because one is dominated by their fears is not the way to solve our problems.  So we accept that our nature's will not allow us to change course and we accept that our current civilizational structure is going to collapse.

So given that how should we proceed?  Well by definition from the above the vast majority of people (it is human nature after all) are going to pray, wait for a miracle, put their faith in technology (Tesla, etc), deny reality, get out their fiddles, rearrange the deck chairs, and so on.  Those of us who are not comfortable in the company of the above folks will try and actually work on solutions which could solve our problems and work towards helping create the next civilzational structure.  That structure has to have very different forms of living and existing.

So enough of that as one can go on for hundreds of pages as I have done a number of times.

Back to your question of why ev's are not a solution and Musk is not the messiah.  Our next civilizational structure must be based upon local production, living and working and playing.  Town people must live close to each other and they will not need cars.  Rural people will grow food.  Public transportation (electric), walking and bicycles will suffice.  Freighting of agricultural products and some goods/resources will be mostly done via ships and railroads with a small amount via trucks (electric).  No more air travel for almost anyone.  It is highly unlikely that in the next civilizational structure we will have anything like the complex globalized highly sophisticated technologies we have now.  At least not for a long time, as following the collapse and during the rebuilding stage such things just will not be possible.  And if we do rebuild those technologies we end up setting aside we will have to create and maintain them in a completely different way than we do now.  Neither of our current ways of creating and maintaining technology nor our ways of running our global economy will be viable in the future and we will need to create and build sustainable civilizational structures first in order to build upon them later.  What we have and do now is non-functional.

The train is off the tracks and we are going in the ditch.  It is not the end of all things as we have done this many times in our past.  It happens to all civilizations.  They grow, live and die.  It is just our turn.  But since we can see what is coming it is possible to make the transition easier going down and thus easier going up.  This is what I advocate for - it is the correct moral and ethical choice.  Managed decline in order to save as much as we can for those who come after us.  Alternately - and what we seem to be doing - is to double down on faith in technology and miracles and pull out all the stops in order to find some way to scrape along trying to maintain BAU as long as possible.  If we do this, and that is the unfortunate path I think we will take, it will leave a wasteland for the future and take them far deeper into the dark and leave them a far longer climb back into the light.  And they will have all the BAU folks to thank for it.  So if Musk wants my respect he drops his sci-fi fantasy of colonizing other planets and parks his Telsa and puts his creativity and wealth into working to solve the 3 great problems.  Nothing else actually matters.


Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ivica on August 11, 2015, 10:41:12 PM
Let me (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,34.msg616.html#msg616) add to
... and what we seem to be doing - is to double down on faith in technology and miracles and pull out all the stops in order to find some way to scrape along trying to maintain BAU as long as possible...
and do that being led by the same mindset which made the problem . (https://youtu.be/3v8I5egzoMo)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: slow wing on August 12, 2015, 02:14:36 AM
SUV's because Musk needs to go where the demand is. Selling SUV's as well as sedans roughly doubles his customer base for luxury vehicles. He needs to sell a lot of those in order to grow his company.

Why luxury vehicles? Because electric vehicles are still expensive to make so Musk had to start in the high end market before progressing down to more mainstream and budget vehicles as he learns how to reduce costs.

While some may have other objections to them, an SUV that is built and runs on renewable energy still reduces greenhouse gases relative to a fossil fuel SUV, and even relative to a fossil fuel sedan.

More importantly, it provides a pathway to mass production of electric vehicles.


Musk has been constrained in his business plans because he has been attempting something very difficult. Tesla Motors is the first successful new major automobile company in the best part of 100 years - since the 1930s, from memory, where many have failed. And he has been doing it with a whole new technology - electric power!

EDIT: several new posts I hadn't seen before posting this. Interesting posts, and widening the scope of discussion. I have stuff to do now but will reply later.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 12, 2015, 04:27:54 AM
...  I do not believe in miracles and I do not depend on god to come down and save us from our stupidity ...

So given that how should we proceed?  Well by definition from the above the vast majority of people (it is human nature after all) are going to pray, wait for a miracle, put their faith in technology (Tesla, etc), deny reality, get out their fiddles, rearrange the deck chairs, and so on.  Those of us who are not comfortable in the company of the above folks will try and actually work on solutions which could solve our problems and work towards helping create the next civilzational structure.  That structure has to have very different forms of living and existing.

So enough of that as one can go on for hundreds of pages as I have done a number of times.

Back to your question of why ev's are not a solution and Musk is not the messiah.  ...

The train is off the tracks and we are going in the ditch.  It is not the end of all things as we have done this many times in our past.  It happens to all civilizations.  They grow, live and die.  It is just our turn.  But since we can see what is coming it is possible to make the transition easier going down and thus easier going up.  This is what I advocate for - it is the correct moral and ethical choice.  Managed decline in order to save as much as we can for those who come after us.  Alternately - and what we seem to be doing - is to double down on faith in technology and miracles and pull out all the stops in order to find some way to scrape along trying to maintain BAU as long as possible.  If we do this, and that is the unfortunate path I think we will take, it will leave a wasteland for the future and take them far deeper into the dark and leave them a far longer climb back into the light.  And they will have all the BAU folks to thank for it.  So if Musk wants my respect he drops his sci-fi fantasy of colonizing other planets and parks his Telsa and puts his creativity and wealth into working to solve the 3 great problems.  Nothing else actually matters.

Jim, I respect your opinion even though I disagree with your premise.
I don't respect your communication style.
I don't believe anyone here has referred to, much less considers Musk the Messiah.
I don't believe anyone here is expecting a miracle.
And nobody expects EVs, or anything else to be a silver bullet.  It will take a lot of partial solutions.

Cleaning up the grid is critical with or without EVs.  With EVs, that part of our transportation automatically gets cleaner as our grid does.

I believe we have already put too much CO2 in the atmosphere to prevent a temp increase of 2C.  I also believe things will get worse.
I also believe that if we can start slowing our CO2 emissions, we can soften the blow.  I don't see your solution doing that, as almost no one will go that route.

Those that can be convinced to eat meat less often, drive more efficient cars than they currently are, downsize their houses, or move closer to town centers, will save millions of tons of CO2 each year.  Not because each person is saving a huge amount, but because a lot of people can be convinced to save a little.

Those of us willing to do more, will do more (go vegan, don't have kids, install wind or solar, etc).  This is wonderful, and I am thankful for everyone's contributions.
This, I believe, will soften the blow more than insisting everyone cut CO2 99%, which results in almost nobody cutting anything.

As for softening the blow, that is laudable, and is exactly what I am doing as well.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 02:11:36 AM
Did Elon Musk Build That?
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-12/did-elon-musk-build-that- (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-12/did-elon-musk-build-that-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 13, 2015, 03:19:24 PM
I think it is safe to say that:
In the next few years, and particularly in the U.S.:
most car buyers will not suddenly change their habits and overwhelmingly buy a car because it is "good for the planet," instead of the car they really want.  (Nor will they stop buying cars!  Let's be real for a moment.)  But the world's most urgent, critical need is to reduce carbon emissions, right now.  That can't wait.

So for today, the trick is to make cars people want, cars that also happen to lower carbon emissions.  If that means adding some sugar to the sourness of EV limited range, higher vehicle price and an uneven charging infrastructure, so be it.  It won't be needed forever.  And EVs are the only type of car that get cleaner as the grid gets cleaner. 

In a few decades, gas cars will likely be a relic of the past.  Until then, the most green, sustainable car in the world does no good if no one buys it.  Whether that is due to price, styling, or functionality makes no difference.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 13, 2015, 04:25:00 PM
Sigmetnow, you are right that people buy the car they want and not the car that is "good". Same is true in Germany - but here "premium" is prefered while in USA it is "size". That is just a matter of taste and both are bad in terms of CO2. EV does not help in a SUV just like common rail does not help, if it must be 200PS...

So in USA they hype EV for silly reasons (and pay subsidies to get it on the road) while here they have clean diesel fuel (with lower tax than lighter gasoline...), so the diesel injection is possible and that is more CO2-efficient than EV. Furthermore the tast is different: In USA you may use automatic cars - which is a no-go for a real German man (unless it is tiptronic like in Formular 1). Similarily the noise is important - a turbo diesel sounds just different then an EV.

But then you have that 10% of rich Green BAU'ers / hipster / "young creative urban professionals" and the marketing experts find that nice "sustainability niche market". That is adressed nicely e.g. by BMW i3. You see, the "German premium car manufacturers" do not have to worry about Tesla - that Musk-company will probably never have any economic success. What they worry about is an Apple starting to build a car - because that company understands very well how you can make money with "premium image"...

If you think now all my words sound silly and strange: You are totally right. All the car business is about image, life-style and feeling. There is not a tiny little bit of reason inside. Same for Tesla EV and even for the way more sustainable BMW i3.

I have to point to that again, because I know that it is difficult to discuss critical about the home-countries' cars - you know, that is the feelings thing. So maybe if you look at the marketing of the BMW i3, then you could be able to think more clearly about EV's and why they are not really good today. So please take a look and find the lies in the other country: http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/corporation/bmwi/sustainability.html (http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/corporation/bmwi/sustainability.html)

As in most technologies EV's are not bad because the EV-technology is bad. They all just make bad cars today. Same is true for all other technologies out there. We do not need any new technology anymore to rescue the world (but we may progress the technologies with fun - but that is not condition to stop AGW, I say). We just need to stop doing wrong things and start doing right things with the technolgy. And if people do not want to stop "bad things" then educate and force them. Just like in case of similar feeling/image issues people may have: Smoking, throwing briks in windows of banks, stealing other peoples property/wife/... or things written in that bible.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 13, 2015, 05:44:30 PM
Yes, smoking, another good analogy. Imagine 20 years ago instead of making smoking socially unacceptable, they would have said: Oh well, that's never going to work, we first have to put nice-smelling scents in the cigs, and then add inhalable lung cancer suppressants, and maybe then tobacco companies will have enough capacity to start producing fairy fart cigarettes?

That's what electric SUVs are. They don't need to be greenified, they need to be made socially unacceptable. Just like smoking.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 13, 2015, 06:13:28 PM
Not only SUV. Take a look at the video on that page (scroll down a bit): http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/i/i8/2014/showroom/index.html (http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/i/i8/2014/showroom/index.html)

If anybody thinks he wants to buy that car because of sustainability then I'd wonder with which part of his body he is thinking. Surely not the brain...

I think it should be quite easy to supress such marketing just like smoking commercials.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 14, 2015, 09:48:14 PM
Hey, SATire, the BMW i3 is a fantastic car!  I never said it wasn't.  And the thousands of U.S. owners would no doubt agree.  I also didn't say the Model S is the best.  (But oh-so-many car experts did!  ;D )

Anyway, the Nissan LEAF beats all models for global sales, which may indicate that it is currently closest to the "sweet spot" for price versus capability. Over 170,000 sold world-wide, the Nissan LEAF is the best-selling electric vehicle in history.

- - - -

As to the idea of car-shaming SUVs and sports car owners, I'll just say that most technological advancements are first developed for high-end, very expensive cars, and the technology "trickles down" to mundane, everyday vehicles.  This includes safety improvements as well as efficiency.  Pretty sure we don't want to stop that.

Maybe we develop a rating that uses sustainable construction and energy efficiency to determine a surcharge.  If a car company develops a large car that is just as earth-friendly as a small sedan, that is a good thing for people who need a bigger car on a daily basis.  (Otherwise, rent one when needed!)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2015, 02:02:51 AM
California Air Resources Board chief: Automakers need to end production of ICEs around 2030
Governor Jerry Brown has set a goal to reduce California’s greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050. Meeting that goal will require dinosaur burners to be off the road by that time, and given modern cars’ long lifespans, that means they need to start disappearing from showrooms around 2030.

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/california-air-resources-board-chief-automakers-need-to-end-production-of-ices-around-2030/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2015, 02:06:51 AM
Link has big infographic on EV sales.

Electric Car Sales To Hit 1 Million In September
Globally, plug-in electric car sales (including plug-in hybrid sales) will hit 1 million next month, September 2015.

http://evobsession.com/electric-car-sales-to-hit-1-million-in-september/ (http://evobsession.com/electric-car-sales-to-hit-1-million-in-september/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 15, 2015, 01:30:47 PM
Hey, SATire, the BMW i3 is a fantastic car!  I never said it wasn't.  And the thousands of U.S. owners would no doubt agree.  I also didn't say the Model S is the best.  (But oh-so-many car experts did!  ;D )

Anyway, the Nissan LEAF beats all models for global sales, which may indicate that it is currently closest to the "sweet spot" for price versus capability. Over 170,000 sold world-wide, the Nissan LEAF is the best-selling electric vehicle in history.
Sigmetnow - I think it could be that the marketing experts catched you. Please reconsider your rating of cars by thinking about it with your brain and not feelings/image/or other parts of your body. The i3 may be better than Model S and others, but it is far away from good or even fantastic! "Better" means just a little bit less bad. Of course the Leaf is better than the i3 by reason. The i3/i8/Model S are not made for reasonable driving but for other things. For some other things than driving such cars work "fantastic", indeed. Please take a look at that i8 film - it demonstrates very clear what these kind of cars are made for and that is not driving or sustainability...

As to the idea of car-shaming SUVs and sports car owners, I'll just say that most technological advancements are first developed for high-end, very expensive cars, and the technology "trickles down" to mundane, everyday vehicles.  This includes safety improvements as well as efficiency.  Pretty sure we don't want to stop that.

Maybe we develop a rating that uses sustainable construction and energy efficiency to determine a surcharge.  If a car company develops a large car that is just as earth-friendly as a small sedan, that is a good thing for people who need a bigger car on a daily basis.  (Otherwise, rent one when needed!)
Funny, that you call the difference between costly premium cars and more efficient cheap cars technological advancements. All the things included in the high-end cars are not "good new sustainable technologies" but "innovations" invented to increase profit or to convince people to buy something that is actually useless. As explained in my previous post it is all about "innovations" and not about "progress" nor "advancements" in the car business.

I want to give one real example of progress in the car business: http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/ (http://www.streetscooter.eu/en/)
But only the business-world is buying some cars with reason - so only the "work" version is now commercially available and a success. The really efficient SDV (small distance vehicle) did not attract enough people to start production, yet. Even in this forum Neven was the only one interested in that car... So: We need to make the inefficient cars "socially unacceptable" as Neven suggested and we need politics to ban the big cars from our cities. The cars consume to much of our space and air and limit our freedom to walk at the places we want to life and work.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2015, 04:41:18 PM
Sorry, SATire, I misunderstood your comment.  (And honestly, this wasn't the first time that has happened, so I've learned my lesson.)

We need to make the inefficient cars "socially unacceptable" as Neven suggested and we need politics to ban the big cars from our cities. The cars consume to much of our space and air and limit our freedom to walk at the places we want to life and work.
 
That all sounds good -- until you hear from the mom who needs to drive six of the neighbors' kids to day-care every day.  Or the volunteer who takes groups of senior citizens to museums and movies, or to mall for the air conditioning on extreme heat days. Or the hobby farmer who needs to get a big load of produce to a city market.  Or the supplier delivering equipment to the hospital.  A big car can be more efficient than a truck in many situations.

Before banning all big cars, we need to be sure adequate alternatives are in place.  Perhaps in the future that will be the case, but it is not so today. 

If you don't like my idea of a surcharge on less efficient / less sustainable vehicles, please explain how you would make big cars "socially unacceptable."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on August 15, 2015, 05:42:52 PM
I'm missing something here - possibly because I've never driven an SUV.


Why is an SUV socially unacceptable if it is electrically powered? I concede that a larger vehicle uses more road space and contains more raw material than a much smaller one, but is this what the fuss is about?


Terry
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 15, 2015, 06:38:49 PM
Perhaps it is a symbol of excess.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 15, 2015, 07:42:30 PM
I'm missing something here - possibly because I've never driven an SUV.


Why is an SUV socially unacceptable if it is electrically powered? I concede that a larger vehicle uses more road space and contains more raw material than a much smaller one, but is this what the fuss is about?


Terry
Because the electric SUV produces (to make that electricty and the battery) double as much CO2 than an efficient combustion car. And that is not healthy for arctic sea ice, the planet and us people. And all that without any reason if used in the city... If you need it to carry treas in the forrest, that would be acceptable, I think.

No - those inefficient cars are burning also my last pice of carbon. Therefore burning more carbon than necessary is an insult for other people. And the necessary amount is that produced by the most efficient cars and thus well below 100g/km today. Most electric cars can not do that and electric SUV would double that easily...

edit: Maybe compare that issue with SUV and other inefficient cars with smoking again: One reason to ban smoking was the danger of passive smoking. So the smoker does not harm only himself but also other people. The same is true with CO2 emission: Producing CO2 is not only dangerous for my children but for all other peoples children as well. So maybe in a few years people will not spray colour on furry but cut the tires of SUV - just to render them nonhazardous for a while...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 15, 2015, 09:48:33 PM
To jump in here a bit on the SUV/Pickup thing.

Besides what SATire is talking about there are a host of other reasons why we need regulations whose goal is to eliminate large vehicles.  Yes there are a few people who have justification for extra capacity but those needs were perfectly satisfied with other vehicle types before the advent of the SUV.  They are called station wagons and small vans.

But to my main point.  At least 95% of the large SUV and full size pickups are owned and driven by people who have zero legitimate justification for having them.  People buy these vehicles substantially due to the effects of consumer marketing (whose purpose is just to increase profits for car companies).  They also buy them for the perverted reasons of safety.  There are so many huge vehicles on the road that they feel in danger in a small car - legitimately.  So it is like an arms race.  The real solution of course is to get rid of the excess big vehicles and go towards smaller not bigger. 

Most men who own full size pickups (almost all of them) use them as commuter vehicles.  Where I live it is by far the norm for men to drive pickups.  Even 70-80 year old men.  They have zero need for them.  Or large jeeps with giant tires most of which never see a dirt road.  SUV's primarily driven by women, are a similar story.  The number of women hauling more than 1-2 people around is much rarer than it used to be when most women did not have SUV's.  It is all marketing crap.  Almost all of the fancy technology, computers and electronics stuff in cars today is to make extra profits for the car companies and serves little other purpose and in many cases makes the cars more dangerous not less.

Car companies want to sell these vehicles because they make large profits on them.  Many of the very small efficient cars (including ev's) are sold at small to zero profit just to maintain a foothold in that market - just in case.

As an aside - just talking business here.  This is one of the great weaknesses of the Tesla approach.  Musk is trying to break into the major car business by starting out in the luxury division where the profits are usually large (though he is losing money) and then to branch out into the higher volume smaller markets.  But if he can't make big money on luxury then he is not likely to make it in the small car market which is much more competitive.  On top of that he is going up against competitors who have really deep pockets and who will have no problem being able to outspend him on development and also on production facilities and who have monstrous dealer networks of which he has none.  If the ev market ever really takes off (and nothing we have seen yet shows it has or is on the verge of doing so) the major car companies are much better positioned to take advantage of it than Tesla is.  There are very sound business reasons why there is almost never a new car company start up which succeeds. 

Once again just to keep all things in perspective.  Ev's are not the answer.  No cars is the answer.  No luxury vehicle serves any legitimate social purpose of any kind in today's world.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 15, 2015, 09:53:22 PM
And since I am talking about cars again today here is something which will have a huge impact on the global car industry.  The ripple effects will hit every car maker in the world negatively as well as thousands of companies which manufacture car parts and such.

More large headwinds to the global economy.

China’s auto market, which had been the single most important element in the convoluted growth story of GM and other global automakers, was getting battered even before the yuan devaluation. But now elements coagulate into a toxic mix.

Sales of passenger vehicles in July dropped 6.6% from a year ago, to 1.27 million, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, a 17-month low, after they’d already fallen 3.4% in June, and after they’d relentlessly trended down since late last year.

This debacle happened even though automakers had cut prices and heaped incentives on the market to stem the decline. GM and VW started it, and it has now turned into a price war.....Nearly half of GM’s earnings are generated by its operations in China, as are a third of VW’s earnings. VW, the other German automakers, and the Japanese automakers have been benefiting from the sharp decline of their home currencies against the yuan over the past year when they converted their yuan-based revenues and earnings into euros or yen....

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/14/china-mess-yuan-devaluation-dropping-auto-sales-spread-to-the-us-gm-ford-chrysler-component-makers/ (http://wolfstreet.com/2015/08/14/china-mess-yuan-devaluation-dropping-auto-sales-spread-to-the-us-gm-ford-chrysler-component-makers/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 15, 2015, 10:20:51 PM
[...] People buy these vehicles substantially due to the effects of consumer marketing (whose purpose is just to increase profits for car companies).  They also buy them for the perverted reasons of safety.  There are so many huge vehicles on the road that they feel in danger in a small car - legitimately.  So it is like an arms race.  The real solution of course is to get rid of the excess big vehicles and go towards smaller not bigger. 

JimD - I see I was way too implicit above. To make it clear also for U.S. people reading here: The reason to buy a premium car or a big SUV or sportscar is just: Sex. No reason. Sex. Look at the commercial I mentioned above, it is not about sustainable or reason or such: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTVOCSOj9ZE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTVOCSOj9ZE)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 15, 2015, 10:38:28 PM
[...] People buy these vehicles substantially due to the effects of consumer marketing (whose purpose is just to increase profits for car companies).  They also buy them for the perverted reasons of safety.  There are so many huge vehicles on the road that they feel in danger in a small car - legitimately.  So it is like an arms race.  The real solution of course is to get rid of the excess big vehicles and go towards smaller not bigger. 

JimD - I see I was way too implicit above. To make it clear also for U.S. people reading here: The reason to buy a premium car or a big SUV or sportscar is just: Sex. No reason. Sex. Look at the commercial I mentioned above, it is not about sustainable or reason or such: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTVOCSOj9ZE (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTVOCSOj9ZE)

I understand you and agree.  I believe the black pickup with smoked windows works best.   Nobody buys a Tesla for efficiency or greenness.  They buy it because it is a cool sportscar.  You can use it to catch the hot Progressive chicks.  If you want a hot conservative chick maybe a Dodge Charger or a Corvette.  A rich girl wanna be maybe one of those Porsche's or Audi's.  The trophy wife would like a Lexus or Mercedes - at least that is what they drive around here.  It's sad.  Though I admit I cast glances of longing when I see all those tricked out Jeep Wrangler's with the giant tires go by - I could use one of those - I think  ;D  My Chevy Cruz is so wimpy it is an embarrassment. It is a good thing I have been out of the market for the last 35 years or I would be living a lonely life.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2015, 10:41:28 PM
Because the electric SUV produces (to make that electricty and the battery) double as much CO2 than an efficient combustion car. ...

SATire, please state your source for this claim.  The only study I find that has not been debunked is this one by Renault, which found that the EV's production+use footprint became less than the gasoline or diesel versions over time:

Broadly, the LCA found that the principal source of environmental impacts for the combustion engined cars is the use phase; the principal sources of environmental impacts for EVs are production—notably that of the Li-ion battery pack—and the source of electricity.

Although the EV had a much greater impact on emissions during its production phase than the gasoline or diesel versions, the initial deficit was more than overcome during the use phase, even using electricity at the current grid configuration.

Renault makes public its lifecycle study of Fluence ICE vs Fluence EV
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/07/renault-20130711.html (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/07/renault-20130711.html)


Too recent to be considered by that study, of course, is that used EV batteries are now being recycled as home storage and to feed the grid, etc.  Soon, the Tesla gigafactory will increase the sustainability of the current battery manufacturing process:

In keeping with Musk’s environmentally sustainable reputation, the facility, which will sit on 500 to 1,000 acres, will not only recycle older battery packs but will also be powered by “new local renewables,” namely wind turbines and photovoltaic panels.

http://venturebeat.com/2014/08/01/how-teslas-battery-gigafactory-could-change-everything-not-just-electric-cars/ (http://venturebeat.com/2014/08/01/how-teslas-battery-gigafactory-could-change-everything-not-just-electric-cars/)


The "EVs are less sustainable" argument is weakening every day, as the grid, and EV manufacturing, gets cleaner. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 15, 2015, 10:42:07 PM
The technology improvements many people here scoff at are precisely what will decrease the number of cars the most over the next few decades.  Autonomous cars will cut total vehicle needs drastically.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 15, 2015, 11:10:59 PM
Because the electric SUV produces (to make that electricty and the battery) double as much CO2 than an efficient combustion car. ...

SATire, please state your source for this claim.  The only study I find that has not been debunked is this one by Renault, which found that the EV's production+use footprint became less than the gasoline or diesel versions over time:
Sigmetnow - I presented the links and calculation on page 5 in this thread. In case you think that those Renault cars are working for US people I would be very happy and a bit surprised...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 15, 2015, 11:57:04 PM
In most of the developed world EVs are less carbon intensive than ICE vehicles.


http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php (http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.php)
http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ask/2014/lifecycle-emissions.html#.Vc-x5rJViko (http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ask/2014/lifecycle-emissions.html#.Vc-x5rJViko)
http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/electric-cars-green (http://shrinkthatfootprint.com/electric-cars-green)
http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2494.epdf?referrer_access_token=fSVt90mhS-7mJ2VR6aUeDtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O9lRkXBFCTJh7pA6_mxsqcs3xFIYQtz3RwxYPDy3Xp2c3aP09BtQhLjdfyx9LnF2uPRkYSHnGBckKJSkp5yCAGqntu-yHQF_A-ENmZ0-zLJ4ngy7DdR4r30jDQdUkR2lnw4XhkcSEe8SxItJOfVcpN-9RHL6BRlXAaS- (http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2494.epdf?referrer_access_token=fSVt90mhS-7mJ2VR6aUeDtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O9lRkXBFCTJh7pA6_mxsqcs3xFIYQtz3RwxYPDy3Xp2c3aP09BtQhLjdfyx9LnF2uPRkYSHnGBckKJSkp5yCAGqntu-yHQF_A-ENmZ0-zLJ4ngy7DdR4r30jDQdUkR2lnw4XhkcSEe8SxItJOfVcpN-9RHL6BRlXAaS-)ETuUI8_XEDNEycAu1YmhQW9SvGSWfB0hvyk_9RB7djSkynIQnpvhKsGO8p2f1itgh2lUpSfMw50xclpgwc7UfRmdRu0H0FbO5vLy5lpyqU98a13ZMD&tracking_referrer=www.cbc.ca

The details in the Nature article show this is true for the EU27, Germany, UK, Canada, USA, and more. The situation leans even more towards EVs with the continuing transition away from coal. The improvements in battery tech pushes this advantage even further and when batteries become mass produced using only renewable energy there will be no contest since the vast majority of the carbon emissions of EVs are those attributed to the battery manufacture.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 16, 2015, 12:26:53 AM
Yes, you are right with that citations. If the electric energy is produced from renewables, EVs are less carbon emitting than efficient 100 g CO2/km combustion cars. So in Norway that is the case today. In Germany it is not yet. In USA that it is not in 10 years.

If you buy a EV today and use it for 10 years in your country - what do you think is the CO2 emission per km? Compare that with that 100 g/km. Add the extra that is used to produce the battery - will it be better over the life-time of that car?

And now consider that you buy an electric sportscar or SUV or such - you are out and people will cut the tires of your car and they are right doing so. It is not about which technology you use but it is about how you use the existing technologies. Do the right thing. Blame the people doing the wrong things. That's all. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on August 16, 2015, 05:08:58 AM
Sig wrote: "That all sounds good -- until you hear from the mom who needs to drive six of the neighbors' kids to day-care every day.  Or the volunteer who takes groups of senior citizens to museums and movies, or to mall for the air conditioning on extreme heat days. Or the hobby farmer who needs to get a big load of produce to a city market.  Or the supplier delivering equipment to the hospital."

Yeah, that's partly how they sell those behemoths. But isn't that what renting is for--for the rare occasion when you need something that you don't need to own every day?

It's like always walking around with a huge duluth pack on because someday you might go camping, even though what you carry around on a daily basis could fit in a small satchel.

(But the analogy would be better if duluth packs were enormously expensive, constantly spewed vast amounts of pollutants into the air, and were a constant threat to the lives and well being of those around it when in use...'-))

https://74fdc.wordpress.com/2012/12/26/the-duluth-pack-the-first-patented-backpack/


(https://74fdc.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/duluth-pack-man.jpg)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 16, 2015, 02:39:24 PM
Sorry, SATire, I misunderstood your comment.  (And honestly, this wasn't the first time that has happened, so I've learned my lesson.)

We need to make the inefficient cars "socially unacceptable" as Neven suggested and we need politics to ban the big cars from our cities. The cars consume to much of our space and air and limit our freedom to walk at the places we want to life and work.
 
That all sounds good -- until you hear from the mom who needs to drive six of the neighbors' kids to day-care every day.  Or the volunteer who takes groups of senior citizens to museums and movies, or to mall for the air conditioning on extreme heat days. Or the hobby farmer who needs to get a big load of produce to a city market.  Or the supplier delivering equipment to the hospital.  A big car can be more efficient than a truck in many situations.

Before banning all big cars, we need to be sure adequate alternatives are in place.  Perhaps in the future that will be the case, but it is not so today. 

If you don't like my idea of a surcharge on less efficient / less sustainable vehicles, please explain how you would make big cars "socially unacceptable."
no problem. Misunderstandings are normal in international discussions so we need to explain a bit more than at home.

The alternative to big cars, sportscars and SUV are small efficient cars, which are well in place.

I like your idea of surcharge of less efficient cars - e.g. higher tax on gasoline and electricity proportional to CO2 emission. But I have learned that this is "impossible" in USA because the government is so weak it can not tune taxes. Strange for me but I try to accept.

So a work arround would be some kind of a "environmental badge": http://www.environmental-badge.co.uk/en/environmental-badge.html (http://www.environmental-badge.co.uk/en/environmental-badge.html)
But of course not only for particle emission but for CO2 emission, too. E.g. with following example for future banning:
If your car produces < 100 g/km or <160 g/mile (EV or combustion does not matter), you get a green badge and you may enter every place with that car.

For 100 g/km - 150 g/km (average new car here), you get an yellow badge and you are not allowed to enter areas with high population e.g. city centers.

With a red badge (>150 g/km or >240 g/mile) you may not enter any city. Such cars are for working in the forrest or in rural areas only. If you find any electric SUV with less than 240 g/mile, you are welcome ;-)

Let me cite from Bob's post #202 here: "Electricity EV U.S. Mix..........333" (g/mile) -> pretty red badge...

The other not so legal way to demonstrate "social unacceptance" is cut the tire. In former days e.g. the red color on fury worked fine to get the attention of the people. Just for the case your government is too lame such action could be a work arround.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2015, 03:28:15 PM
Sig wrote: "That all sounds good -- until you hear from the mom who needs to drive six of the neighbors' kids to day-care every day.  Or the volunteer who takes groups of senior citizens to museums and movies, or to mall for the air conditioning on extreme heat days. Or the hobby farmer who needs to get a big load of produce to a city market.  Or the supplier delivering equipment to the hospital."

Yeah, that's partly how they sell those behemoths. But isn't that what renting is for--for the rare occasion when you need something that you don't need to own every day?

Yup.  I said that too, somewhere.  Ah, in #463.  Last sentence.   :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2015, 03:41:08 PM
The power of the Model X (SUV) will allow it to pull a sizeable trailer, which will be important to some people.  Most electric cars cannot do this.

Tesla exec Jim Chen, VP of Regulatory Affairs
“This vehicle will have Class III towing capability. That means over 5,000 pounds, actually close to 10,000 pounds of towing capability.”

http://gas2.org/2015/06/22/tesla-model-x-towing-capacity-close-to-10000-pounds/ (http://gas2.org/2015/06/22/tesla-model-x-towing-capacity-close-to-10000-pounds/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2015, 03:42:37 PM
Money, money, money!

Tesla to raise $500 million – wait, make that $650 million – with new stock offering
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-to-raise-500-million-with-new-stock-offering/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2015, 03:45:55 PM
Is the Model XXL comparable to a Humvee, because that's what I need to make sure the eggs from the supermarket don't break.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 16, 2015, 03:50:43 PM
Again, I agree no cars is the best situation.
How do we get to that point?

Currently we can't even get a carbon tax passed.

The "perfect or nothing" position lowers society's carbon foot print by so little it is difficult to see any change.  Until one day everything falls apart and society has no choice.

Taking a good, but not perfect stance of EVs (which automatically get cleaner as we clean the grid) gets us started towards cutting some co2 emissions and might just delay everything falling apart.
More time for society to respond is a good thing.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on August 16, 2015, 03:56:54 PM
Is the Model XXL comparable to a Humvee, because that's what I need to make sure the eggs from the supermarket don't break.

If you are referring to the Tesla Model X, no, it is a car based SUV, typically designated a "crossover".
Looks like you will just have to get that Humvee ;)

I'm curious, did you check out the Mitsubishi Miev?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2015, 04:29:07 PM
Yes, I saw the MiEV a couple of years ago (and coincidentally saw a BMW i3 two days ago, thought it was a Transformer). That's the kind of size of car I'd want to buy in a few years when/if I have the money and still need a car. A car you can put a small trailer behind for bags when travelling.

But perhaps converting a small car would be even more interesting. Financially, of course, but also because you get to cut out all the breakable stuff and gadgets, eliminating the planned obsolescence of these cars.

Speaking of which, I fixed a kitchen appliance this week, which broke after 1.5 years of service, because of a small piece of plastic that was elemental to its working, and thus meant to break. Right now I'm battling it out with a HP printer that refuses to print after just two years of little printing. This kind of stuff makes me so angry. Just like the Model XXL.

It's not SUVs that are causing AGW and a host of other problems, but a way of thinking that will simply not accept and allow limits. It springs forth from a diseased mind that eats children in order to live forever. That's why every emanation from it needs to be shown for what it is and resisted. If this doesn't happen, the predicament will never be solved, no matter how 'earth-friendly' you make it. Like the French say: Too much c'est too much.

Freedom is not about being able to do whatever you want to do. It's about being grateful, respectful and responsible. Model XXL is none of that. It's just the thing that Musk and his engineers would want to drive.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 16, 2015, 05:11:04 PM
Is the Model XXL comparable to a Humvee, because that's what I need to make sure the eggs from the supermarket don't break.
:o  --  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on August 16, 2015, 08:31:47 PM
Neven
WRT Planned Obsolescence:


The worst examples I've noticed were a solid state timer/relay on a 2 year old portable dehumidifier & a small window A/C without oiling ports on the combination condenser fan motor/blower motor.
The timer/relay could have been replaced by separate components at a cost of ~$20 per component, but the motor's replacement would have been close to 25% of the cost of the machine (on sale).
Johnson Controls introduced a solid state gas valve some time ago that integrated all the safety functions onto a single board (that at the time wholesaled for >$ 150.) This was a replacement for 5 independent safety's that individually wholesaled for <$5.00.
While a salesman might be able to exclaim that the new model uses the latest solid state technology, the truth was that the new technology simply made repairs much more expensive.


Fewer components is not automatically better design. Solid state circuitry is no panacea. Unrepairable appliances should be banned. Household appliances should be comparable to commercial models in that both should utilize standardized, off the shelf components.
Terry
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 16, 2015, 09:33:40 PM
Technology may affect things faster, but the biggest force for a societal tendency towards less car ownership could end up being the simplest one: time.  In the U.S. today, kids aren't buying cars at rates anything like their grandparents are.

In the past five years, the number of new cars registered to households with a head age 65 or older has risen 62 percent, according to IHS. Drivers over the age of 75, meanwhile, registered about six times as many new cars as those age 18 to 24.  The children may well be the future, but the fogies have the cash. What’s more, they want to use it before it’s too late.
...
Of all new cars registered last year, only 12 percent went to households led by someone under the age of 35.
...
[But the] problem with old people is that they have a nagging tendency to suddenly stop being consumers altogether. In economic lingo, the expected lifetime value of an 85-year-old customer isn’t great, no matter how wealthy she is. The problem isn’t the “value”—its the “lifetime” part of the equation.

How Old People Became the Future of the U.S. Auto Industry
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/how-old-people-became-the-future-of-the-u-s-auto-industry (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/how-old-people-became-the-future-of-the-u-s-auto-industry)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2015, 09:39:00 PM
Thanks for that article, Sigmetnow. It emphasizes what I wrote before: It springs forth from a diseased mind that eats children in order to live forever.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on August 16, 2015, 11:54:14 PM
Technology may affect things faster, but the biggest force for a societal tendency towards less car ownership could end up being the simplest one: time.  In the U.S. today, kids aren't buying cars at rates anything like their grandparents are.

In the past five years, the number of new cars registered to households with a head age 65 or older has risen 62 percent, according to IHS. Drivers over the age of 75, meanwhile, registered about six times as many new cars as those age 18 to 24.  The children may well be the future, but the fogies have the cash. What’s more, they want to use it before it’s too late.
...
Of all new cars registered last year, only 12 percent went to households led by someone under the age of 35.
...
[But the] problem with old people is that they have a nagging tendency to suddenly stop being consumers altogether. In economic lingo, the expected lifetime value of an 85-year-old customer isn’t great, no matter how wealthy she is. The problem isn’t the “value”—its the “lifetime” part of the equation.

How Old People Became the Future of the U.S. Auto Industry
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/how-old-people-became-the-future-of-the-u-s-auto-industry (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-11/how-old-people-became-the-future-of-the-u-s-auto-industry)

Those statistics are simply amazing. Such a glaring proof that today's society is sick, if anyone needed such proof.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 17, 2015, 04:28:04 PM
Thanks for that article, Sigmetnow. It emphasizes what I wrote before: It springs forth from a diseased mind that eats children in order to live forever.
But while the oldsters may be buying cars with "reckless abandon," the youngsters are not staying away due to a huge concern for the planet, as far as I have seen.  Instead, as the article mentions, the reason is mostly financial, due to underemployment and crushing amounts of college tuition debt.  (Also, perhaps, electronic devices are replacing the entertainment and social benefits they used to get from cruising???)

It will be interesting to see, as the younger generation's financial situation improves, if the trend continues.  Various tuition debt-forgiveness or re-financing solutions have been proposed, so we may see action on that in the near future.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 17, 2015, 05:40:56 PM
(Also, perhaps, electronic devices are replacing the entertainment and social benefits they used to get from cruising???)
Such observation is also possible here (I have children in that age): A lot of young people do not even make a driver licence - that was a no-go in may generation, since that was considered abstinence from freedom. Furthermore younger people are using car sharing more often and I do not see them washing or repairing cars at all- somehow cars do not have the same sex-appeal any more. Instead social nets seem to be much wider and much more important. Maybe people with big cars are looking quite old now...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on August 17, 2015, 06:10:42 PM
"The great diesel car deception"

https://twitter.com/IronMillTech/status/632837732885233664 (https://twitter.com/IronMillTech/status/632837732885233664)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on August 17, 2015, 06:34:23 PM
"The great diesel car deception"

https://twitter.com/IronMillTech/status/632837732885233664 (https://twitter.com/IronMillTech/status/632837732885233664)
That is true only without catalyst and particulate filter: http://www.peugeot.ph/diesel-particulate-filter/ (http://www.peugeot.ph/diesel-particulate-filter/)
You can not get a new car without that. Without catalyst and particulate filter also old diesel cars are not allowed to be used in several European cities.

Please remember: It is not the technology to blame. It is the way you use any technology, which may be bad or good. Using a Diesel engine without filter is "bad".
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Gonzo on August 17, 2015, 06:59:35 PM
Neven  August 06, 2015, 09:45:28 PM
So, when are they going to build a useful car for minimalists such as I?
If you don't have to deal with much winter, then one of these would be good.
I'm thinking of getting one.
All electric: 185miles city range.
http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-s/sr.php (http://www.zeromotorcycles.com/zero-s/sr.php)

I've got one of these - all wheel drive hybrid (pretty good on gasoline, not great, but best I can do right now.)
http://tinyurl.com/qbu9esr (http://tinyurl.com/qbu9esr)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Gonzo on August 17, 2015, 07:10:47 PM
ghoti
"The great diesel car deception"
https://twitter.com/IronMillTech/status/632837732885233664
Don't trust anything from Rupert Murdoch's media group.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 17, 2015, 09:28:11 PM
Beating current estimates of autonomous vehicles by a decade or two?

Could Tesla cut out the middleman and sell its own ride-sharing services, using autopilot-enabled vehicles?  Musk said it was “an insightful question,” but one that he didn’t think he should answer.
...
...Jonas believes Tesla will soon put two and two together and grab the lion’s share of what could be a huge new market. “Tesla is uniquely positioned, in our view, to solve the biggest flaw in the auto industry, <4% utilization, via an app-based, on-demand mobility service,” says he.

“Given the pace of technological development both within Tesla and at rival technology and mobility companies, we would be surprised if Tesla did not share formalized business plans on shared mobility within the next 12 to 18 months,” writes Jonas. “We view this business opportunity as potentially additive to Tesla’s existing model of selling human-driven cars to private owners and see potential for this model to conceivably more than triple the company’s potential revenues by 2029. That is, selling miles in addition to selling cars.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/analyst-predicts-tesla-will-eat-ubers-lunch-doubling-stock-price/

https://chargedevs.com/newswire/uber-ceo-if-teslas-cars-are-autonomous-by-2020-well-buy-all-500000/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on August 18, 2015, 10:39:50 PM
Tesla - business stuff

These things may not be glamorous but they are significant.  Cash flow problems are eating Tesla alive right now.

...Elon Musk, Tesla's CEO, intends to purchase $20 million of common stock in this offering at the public offering price.

One wonders if the entire $20 million "out of Elon's pocket" was once again funded by $20 million out of California taxpayers' pockets...

...In other words, at the current burn rate, TSLA just bought itself one more quarter of cash flow. Expect another equity offering in the next 1-2 quarters....

(https://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/Teslafreecashflow1.jpg)

http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Can-New-500-Million-Stock-Issue-Solve-Teslas-Problems.html (http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Can-New-500-Million-Stock-Issue-Solve-Teslas-Problems.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2015, 03:27:43 AM
Electric Vehicle Users In The U.K. Could Soon Be Able To Charge Their Cars While They Drive
Britain’s Highways England recently announced an 18-month trial using wireless magnetic induction technology, which is installed in the cars and underneath the asphalt surface. The test, which will start this year, won’t be immediately carried out on public roads, but the facility will simulate common highway conditions. The British government has committed £500 million(about $783 million) to fund the project over five years.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/18/3692564/smart-roads/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/18/3692564/smart-roads/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 20, 2015, 08:35:38 PM
For Tesla fans.  :)

Tesla Motors Earnings Report: Q2 2015 Conference Call / Transcript
From 5 August 2015.

The 1.25-hour conference call webcast is available here:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3403905-tesla-motors-tsla-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3403905-tesla-motors-tsla-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-webcast)

A transcript is on-line here:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13246464/2/tesla-motors-tsla-earnings-report-q2-2015-conference-call-transcript.html (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13246464/2/tesla-motors-tsla-earnings-report-q2-2015-conference-call-transcript.html)

And a PDF here:  http://s.t.st/media/xtranscript/2015/Q3/13246464.pdf (http://s.t.st/media/xtranscript/2015/Q3/13246464.pdf)

The transcription could use some editing.  For example, concerning stationary storage:

But the demand has been really crazy. So it's well in excess of-- if you just take the reservations that have been made thus far it's for well over $1 billion worth of Powerpacks and Powerwalls. And that's with no marketing, no advertising, no sales force to speak of really. Not trying to sell it, it's basically a presentation, and a Webcast and pretty much a press Q&A. So there is probably room to improve. So this is, really, we're basically sold out of what we could make in 2016 at this point, assuming these order are real, which they seem to be.

So we're looking at maybe, again, preface with made for uncertainty 40 million to 50 million in stationary storage in Q4 and maybe as much as 10 times that number for next year. So it's 40 million to 50 million this year and ten times that next year. And that growth rate is probably going to keep going at quite an high level. It's probably at least a few billion dollars in 2017. That's sort of speculative at this point, but I think that's likely. So it's sort of growing by half order of 92 to an order of 92 per year.*
* Musk actually said: "...half order of magnitude to an order of magnitude per year."  8)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 07:51:52 PM
Tesla Autopilot features begin beta testing
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-autopilot-features-begin-beta-testing/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 21, 2015, 09:31:04 PM
Chinese EV market takes off – as Western automakers watch from the sidelines
Sales of plug-in vehicles in China are quickly ramping up, spurred by generous government subsidies, which in turn are motivated by choking air pollution in the country’s major cities.

Yonghe Huang, Director of Policy Research at the China Automotive Technology Center, highlighted the explosive growth in a recent presentation. In 2014, automakers in China produced 84,700 EVs and PHEVs, up more than fivefold from the previous year. In the first six months of 2015, they have already produced 83,100 units.

Unless something drastically changes, China will handily overtake the US as the world’s largest plug-in vehicle market this year (US plug-in sales for the first six months of 2015 were 54,347).
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chinese-ev-market-takes-off-as-western-automakers-watch-from-the-sidelines/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: anotheramethyst on August 22, 2015, 03:23:33 AM
Meanwhile out in the real world.  Things are not trending in a good direction.  Huge sales of ICE vehicles and ...

Ever since 2008, driving in the United States has been in declining, leading some observers to wonder if we've finally hit "peak car."

Turns out we haven't hit peak car quite yet. Over at Calculated Risk, Bill McBride points out that driving in the United States has surged over the past year — and the 12-month rolling average hit an all-time high this May:...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F3.bp.blogspot.com%2F-c_hKxKbzNzI%2FVYydYPBDKDI%2FAAAAAAAAkF4%2FniCkfaAvjdU%2Fs1600%2FMilesMay2015.PNG&hash=ad699f13694ae976c8db4ae834bf7a61)

http://www.vox.com/2015/7/22/9011109/cheap-gasoline-more-driving (http://www.vox.com/2015/7/22/9011109/cheap-gasoline-more-driving)

that chart looks suspiciously like a good proxy for the us economy.  i think that means we JUST climbed out of the great recession.  of course, i could be leaping to conclusions here :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 23, 2015, 02:53:24 AM
@Forbes: Elon Musk wants to focus on making the world’s best car: http://t.co/Lduj2GwrhO (http://t.co/Lduj2GwrhO) http://t.co/AlYD51x7mK (http://t.co/AlYD51x7mK)

https://twitter.com/forbes/status/634111598387404800 (https://twitter.com/forbes/status/634111598387404800)


@elonmusk: True, but achieving a long range affordable electric vehicle has always been our long-term goal. Due in late 2017!  https://t.co/2OrIYdoojs (https://t.co/2OrIYdoojs)

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/635214915934928896 (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/635214915934928896)


Forbes:  Decoding Tesla's Secret Formula
Unlike classic disruptive innovations such as steel mini-mills, personal computers and, in the car business, cheap Japanese imports, Tesla never pursued the classic route of going after low-end, price-sensitive customers first with cheaper, inferior technology. It doesn’t pursue nonconsumption, or customers who don’t currently drive cars. Tesla automobiles look and drive much like other cars, use established infrastructure like roads and confine much of their product innovation to only one aspect: the power system.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2015/08/19/teslas-secret-formula/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/innovatorsdna/2015/08/19/teslas-secret-formula/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 03:53:15 AM
Hong Kong bus stop shelter bathes passengers in clean air.  (But note "Business As Usual" sign in background.  :o )
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/24/adapting-to-air-pollution-with-clean-air-stands-in-china (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/24/adapting-to-air-pollution-with-clean-air-stands-in-china)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 25, 2015, 11:10:08 PM
A truck that provides moving crash protection for road construction crews will be available as a driverless version this year, removing a driver from that dangerous position.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-construction-zone-truck-due-hit-road-year-n415531 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/driverless-construction-zone-truck-due-hit-road-year-n415531)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 26, 2015, 02:18:47 AM
More on the U.K. wireless charging highways
http://www.fastcoexist.com/3049836/the-uk-is-testing-electric-highways-that-would-charge-your-ev-as-you-drive (http://www.fastcoexist.com/3049836/the-uk-is-testing-electric-highways-that-would-charge-your-ev-as-you-drive)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 03:20:30 PM
Tesla P85D breaks Consumer Reports' testing system:

This is the best car Consumer Reports has ever tested
Tesla just made Consumer Reports history.

The product testing agency on Thursday gave the new, high-performance P85D version of the automaker's Model S a rating of 100—a perfect score—calling it "the best-performing car that Consumer Reports has ever tested."

"It really blew up our system," said Jake Fisher, the head of automotive testing for Consumer Reports. "It actually scored above 100 in our system before we had to make some changes to account for this car."
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/teslas-p85d-is-the-best-car-consumer-reports-has-ever-tested.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/27/teslas-p85d-is-the-best-car-consumer-reports-has-ever-tested.html)


Edit:  Because of the overwhelming interest and the unique results, Consumer Reports is making their Tesla P85D report available to non-members, at this link:
http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/tesla-model-s-p85d.htm (http://www.consumerreports.org/cro/tesla-model-s-p85d.htm)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 05:09:37 PM
California puts income limit on households that can get EV rebates
http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/26/california-puts-income-limit-on-households-that-can-get-ev-rebat/ (http://www.autoblog.com/2015/08/26/california-puts-income-limit-on-households-that-can-get-ev-rebat/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 27, 2015, 09:23:25 PM
National Drive Electric Week 2015 - Events

National Drive Electric Week 2015 celebrations will take place across the US and other countries.  Get more information about an event here:
https://driveelectricweek.org/events.php
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2015, 06:07:02 PM
As you may know, Tesla offers "free supercharging for life" as a perk with their electric cars.  A recent article examines the cost of this benefit:
Tesla: cost of providing Supercharging “immaterial”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-cost-of-providing-supercharging-immaterial/ (https://chargedevs.com/newswire/tesla-cost-of-providing-supercharging-immaterial/)

If you really want to geek out, this detailed article from 2013 suggests the free-charge perk is actually a money-maker:
Tesla’s Supercharger – The Cost of Giving Away Free Energy
http://www.teslarati.com/teslas-supercharger-the-cost-of-giving-away-free-energy/ (http://www.teslarati.com/teslas-supercharger-the-cost-of-giving-away-free-energy/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 01, 2015, 07:43:35 PM
Not surprising, given there's been no big change in EV price/range options in the past few years.  But that will change markedly in 2017, when Chevy, Nissan and Tesla (among others) offer their next-generation models.  Still, one in five buyers would consider an EV today -- the interest is there.

New poll: Consumer interest in EVs hasn’t budged since 2013
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/new-poll-consumer-interest-in-evs-hasnt-budged-since-2013/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2015, 04:44:05 PM
The Language of Compromise: Why More Conventional-looking EVs are Something Everyone Should be Hoping For
This is the design language of compromise. To environmental enthusiasts, it says “Look at this awesome new design! Now THIS is a car of the future!” And the environmentalists stand there in the showroom, daydreaming about the moment when they’ll silently cruise past their kale-munching, prius-owning neighbors on their way to Yoga.

But to the average buyer, this design says something different. It says “This vehicle is a compromise. It is not functional. It is not stylish. It is not economical. The only people who would make this compromise are rich people because they can afford to care more about the environment than their wallets.

This near-universal propensity for weird designs and badges proclaiming environmental benefits discourages mass adoption of these vehicles. For most Americans, environmental impact isn’t even on the list of things they consider when buying a car. Even if everything else about the car is great, they still won’t buy it because they feel uncomfortable driving a rolling billboard for liberal environmentalism. And the thing is, auto makers KNOW this. But they do it anyways because they don’t believe there is a market for EVs outside of a small core of environmental enthusiasts.

The problem is that this belief creates a self-fulfilling prophecy. Automakers think no one except environmentalists will buy EVs, so they create designs to attract those buyers. Then when no one except environmentalists buy the cars, those beliefs are confirmed.

These designs not only discourage mass adoption, but they also shows that the auto maker doesn’t believe in the car’s ability to succeed outside of a niche market. Because if these weird looking designs actually helped vehicles sales among a mainstream audience, we would be seeing them everywhere. And we don’t.

In fact, there is evidence that marketing products as “environmentally friendly” can actually discourage consumers from buying them. A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences looked at how placing a  “protect the environment!” sticker on a compact fluorescent light bulb affected consumer behavior. It found that the sticker only increased purchasing rates among the most liberal individuals, and that it decreased purchasing rates in all other groups.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/04/the-language-of-compromise-why-more-conventional-looking-evs-are-something-everyone-should-be-hoping-for/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/04/the-language-of-compromise-why-more-conventional-looking-evs-are-something-everyone-should-be-hoping-for/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2015, 04:58:09 PM
Here are the top automotive brands truly embracing electric vehicles
The Renault-Nissan partnership is the undeniable leader with 27% of the EV market since its resurgence and 18% in 2015. The success of Renault’s Zoe in Europe and Nissan’s LEAF worldwide continue to be an important driver of the electric vehicle market. LEAF sales started to lag recently ahead of the launch of the 2016 model, but sales should pickup in the coming months as the new model arrive at dealerships. The group is truly committed to electric cars and is expected to improve on their current EV platforms for future models with more range.

A very encouraging fact from the data is that VW, BYD and BMW all sold more EVs this year alone than they did through all the prior years combined. This means we are witnessing the first steps of these majors brands in the EV market....

http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/here-are-the-top-automotive-brands-truly-embracing-electric-vehicles/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/here-are-the-top-automotive-brands-truly-embracing-electric-vehicles/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 06, 2015, 05:06:30 PM
Sept 2:  Indianapolis’ all-electric car sharing program, BlueIndy, officially launches today
Today Indianapolis is officially launching BlueIndy, its all-electric car sharing program. The program has been in the work for quite sometime now, but today 25 stations hosting up to 5 cars each are up-and-running.

BlueIndy is modeled after the car sharing programs, like Autolib in Paris, operated by the Bolloré Group in Europe and it uses the same car, the Bluecar, manufactured in partnership between the France-based Bolloré Group and the Italian automotive company Cecomp.

The price structure for the program is fairly simple. Drivers need to pay a 10$ per month membership fee if you sign-up for 1 year and then $4 for the first 20 minutes of use of a Bluecar and $0.20 per additional minute. BlueIndy offers an “Early Bird” special by waving the first 6 months of membership fees for anyone using the promo code EARLY BIRD  when signing up.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program-blueindy-officially-launches-today/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program-blueindy-officially-launches-today/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on September 06, 2015, 07:40:51 PM
The Language of Compromise: Why More Conventional-looking EVs are Something Everyone Should be Hoping For
...
In fact, there is evidence that marketing products as “environmentally friendly” can actually discourage consumers from buying them. A study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences looked at how placing a  “protect the environment!” sticker on a compact fluorescent light bulb affected consumer behavior. It found that the sticker only increased purchasing rates among the most liberal individuals, and that it decreased purchasing rates in all other groups.

That is so stupid and sad. Good luck to the human race  :-\
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 02:26:14 AM
Electric Car Sales in Canada, August 2015: Still Chasing Chevy
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099870_plug-in-electric-car-sales-in-canada-august-2015-still-chasing-chevy (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1099870_plug-in-electric-car-sales-in-canada-august-2015-still-chasing-chevy)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 08:31:15 PM
Russian Prime Minister orders all gas stations to install EV charging stations
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/russian-pm-orders-all-gas-stations-to-install-ev-chargers/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 08, 2015, 08:54:19 PM
Mercedes confirms plans for high-end EV "Tesla-tamer."  Audi and BMW are working on ESUVs.
Daimler is accelerating into the electric future. Last year the company spent about half of its 5-billion-euro R&D budget on electrification and other emission-reducing technologies, and announced that it would introduce 10 new plug-ins by 2017. The Mercedes S550 Plug-In Hybrid, the group’s third model with a cord, went on sale in the US in July.

Now Mercedes has confirmed that it’s working on a pure EV that looks like a possible competitor for Tesla’s Model S.

“We are working on an intelligent concept for a highly attractive electric vehicle with a range of 400-500 km (228-311 miles),” development chief Thomas Weber told the German magazine auto motor und sport, adding that the electric drive concept would fit into Mercedes’s flexible architecture, allowing it to be used in more than one model.

Of course, the media sees every new EV as a would-be Tesla-tamer these days, but the German luxury carmakers, at least, certainly do seem to be targeting Tesla. As Model X’s delivery date approaches, Audi and BMW are both reported to have ESUVs in the pipeline.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/mercedes-confirms-plans-for-high-end-ev/

A reminder here that Elon Musk welcomes EV competition.  I'll quote from his press q&a in Jan 2015 at Detroit Auto World Conference:
"My goal is the acceleration of the advent of electric cars.  And so, I'll be quite pleased to see other manufacturers make lots of electric cars.  How Tesla does in that will be a function of how good are the cars that we make.  Are our cars better, worse, about the same as other cars?
...
"Making electric cars and offering them to the mass market is an extremely important thing.  So even if people are negative or say we're going to fail, I don't care.  We're still going to do it."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 09, 2015, 02:27:30 PM
Elon Musk is appearing on Stephen Colbert's Late Show tonight, if you want to follow along.  (See link at bottom of article.)

Morgan Stanley doubles down on Tesla’s ‘Uber-like’ service – says Tesla should announce plans early 2016
http://electrek.co/2015/09/09/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-on-teslas-uber-like-service-says-tesla-should-announce-plans-early-2016/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/09/morgan-stanley-doubles-down-on-teslas-uber-like-service-says-tesla-should-announce-plans-early-2016/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 11, 2015, 08:31:06 PM
In Beijing, just because you own a car doesn't mean you can use it.  But clean energy cars have an advantage.
According to a report from the South China Morning Post, sources close to the municipal transport authorities are saying that Beijing will update its lottery system for issuing licence plates in order to put Tesla Motors on a “special list of new energy cars”, which should make it easier for Tesla owners to get a license plate in the Chinese capital.
 
In an effort to reduce pollution, Beijing, which already has 5 million cars on the road, is trying to limit the number of new cars by controlling licence plates through a lottery system. The odds for the owner of a car powered by gas or diesel to get a licence plate in the city is currently less than 1%, but the odds increase to 38% for vehicles on the special list of “new energy vehicles”.

As of now, only electric vehicles manufactured in China are eligible to make the list. If the new provision is confirmed, Tesla would be the first foreign car manufacturer to be included.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/11/tesla-to-reportedly-get-preferential-treatment-in-beijings-system-for-licence-plates/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/11/tesla-to-reportedly-get-preferential-treatment-in-beijings-system-for-licence-plates/)

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/beijing/2015-06/26/content_21110283.htm (http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/beijing/2015-06/26/content_21110283.htm)

http://qz.com/153742/the-genius-ways-beijing-drivers-get-around-the-citys-license-plate-lottery/ (http://qz.com/153742/the-genius-ways-beijing-drivers-get-around-the-citys-license-plate-lottery/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 04:11:35 PM
Los Angeles' municipal fleet is trying out many different kinds of electric vehicles.

http://electrek.co/2015/09/11/lapd-is-getting-a-tesla-model-s-los-angeles-will-lease-a-fleet-of-288-electric-vehicles/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/11/lapd-is-getting-a-tesla-model-s-los-angeles-will-lease-a-fleet-of-288-electric-vehicles/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 08:12:13 PM
You knew this would happen:  Wall Street Journal column blasts Consumer Reports (see #511 above) for liking Tesla Model S too much.

Consumer Reports’ decision to rate Tesla a 103 out of 100 prompted an outcry. Here’s what is behind the controversy.
http://fortune.com/2015/09/10/tesla-review-consumer-reports/ (http://fortune.com/2015/09/10/tesla-review-consumer-reports/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 12, 2015, 11:41:33 PM
Sometimes you just need a new set of wheels.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/08/russian-5-year-olds-tunneled-out-nursery-jaguar-sports-car (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/08/russian-5-year-olds-tunneled-out-nursery-jaguar-sports-car)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 12:23:34 AM
California's energy bill SB 350:  Intense lobbying by Big Oil forced the scrapping of the petroleum reduction section of the bill, but electrification of transportation remains a "principal goal."
Recent analysis concludes mass adoption of electric cars, trucks, and buses would cut California's petroleum use by 18 percent in 2030. To get there, people need to be able to plug-in their vehicles where they live, work, and play. Electric utilities can make this happen. That's why SB 350 concludes: "Widespread transportation electrification requires electrical corporations to increase access to the use of electricity as a transportation fuel."

Senator de León's landmark bill also establishes that, a "principal goal" of electric utility "resource planning and investment" is "to improve the environment and to encourage the diversity of energy resources through improvements in energy efficiency, development of renewable energy resources, and widespread transportation electrification."

California's investor-owned utilities are multi-billion dollar corporations that make investments on a scale that could actually erode the monopoly enjoyed by Big Oil for far too long.

And, unlike the oil industry, the electric industry is closely regulated by state agencies, such as the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). Using this authority, SB 350 directs the CPUC to order the electric utilities under its jurisdiction to:

...file applications for programs and investments to accelerate widespread transportation electrification to reduce dependence on petroleum, meet air quality standards, achieve the goals set forth in the Charge Ahead California Initiative, and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 and to 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050.
http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/mbaumhefner/sb_350_makes_replacing_big_oil.html (http://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/mbaumhefner/sb_350_makes_replacing_big_oil.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 12:35:45 AM
New electric bus has more range than typical bus routes require.

The Proterra® Catalyst™ Bus Shatters Electric Vehicle Range Perceptions by Traveling 258 Miles on a Single Charge at Michelin’s Laurens Proving Grounds (LPG)
The Catalyst XR configuration included eight battery packs, with a total energy capacity of 257kWh. Based on these test results, Proterra predicts its ten pack XR configuration (321kWh) will achieve 300 miles on a single charge. According to available General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data, typical urban and rural bus routes in the United States run less than 200 miles a day, bringing most routes within reach of Proterra’s current technology.
http://www.proterra.com/the-proterra-catalyst-bus-shatters-electric-vehicle-range-perceptions-by-traveling-258-miles-on-a-single-charge-at-michelins-laurens-proving-grounds-lpg/ (http://www.proterra.com/the-proterra-catalyst-bus-shatters-electric-vehicle-range-perceptions-by-traveling-258-miles-on-a-single-charge-at-michelins-laurens-proving-grounds-lpg/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 06:15:44 PM
Nice explanation of major differences between the EPA's EV driving range test and the European version.

2016 Nissan Leaf Range: 107 Or 155 Miles? Why Test Cycles Can Be Deceptive
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100055_2016-nissan-leaf-range-107-or-155-miles-why-test-cycles-can-be-deceptive (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100055_2016-nissan-leaf-range-107-or-155-miles-why-test-cycles-can-be-deceptive)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 16, 2015, 11:16:36 PM
"By 2020" -- will something like this still be appropriate?

Next-Gen Cylinder Deactivation: V-8s Using Two Cylinders, 20 Percent MPG Boost?
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100053_next-gen-cylinder-deactivation-v-8s-using-two-cylinders-20-percent-mpg-boost (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100053_next-gen-cylinder-deactivation-v-8s-using-two-cylinders-20-percent-mpg-boost)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 17, 2015, 01:58:29 PM
EV Range Anxiety - two approaches  ;)

Toronto's municipal users took baby steps, at first only using their EV's for short trips, then extending their useful range once they gained experience.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100054_electric-car-range-the-more-you-have-the-more-you-use-canadian-data-shows (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100054_electric-car-range-the-more-you-have-the-more-you-use-canadian-data-shows)

Whereas this newbie user who got the chance to drive a Signature Tesla Model S immediately launched into a long trip, figuring 100 miles on the car's range meter must mean 100 miles of driving, right?  :o
(The Verge video embedded in this article:)
http://www.theverge.com/2014/8/27/6071767/how-to-sneak-a-tesla-into-russia-for-just-6-5-million-rubles (http://www.theverge.com/2014/8/27/6071767/how-to-sneak-a-tesla-into-russia-for-just-6-5-million-rubles)

Edit: Or the method preferred by this Norwegian driver, who attempts to take a long winter EV trip without range anxiety -- by covering the remaining-range display!
http://gas2.org/2013/06/25/video-norwegians-put-tesla-model-s-to-cold-weather-test/ (http://gas2.org/2013/06/25/video-norwegians-put-tesla-model-s-to-cold-weather-test/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2015, 12:56:07 AM
Article and 20-minute video with lots of details (but no photography) of the factory where Teslas are made.  For example, the aluminum-alloy Model S chassis weighs only about 410 pounds.  The car has only 21 moving parts, and is 85% energy efficient at the wheels.

Tidbits Inside the Tesla Factory Tour in Fremont, CA
http://www.teslarati.com/tidbits-inside-tesla-factory-tour-fremont-ca/ (http://www.teslarati.com/tidbits-inside-tesla-factory-tour-fremont-ca/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 18, 2015, 08:55:29 PM
Tesla releases second version of its beta v7.0 software update with Autopilot
The new software update is an important step for self-driving technology enthusiasts because once it is released, tens of thousands of vehicles will be equipped overnight with what could arguably be the most advanced autonomous driving features available to date. The move will make extremely valuable data from thousands of new “self-driving” highway miles available to Tesla every day.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/18/tesla-releases-second-version-of-its-beta-v7-0-software-update-with-autopilot/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/18/tesla-releases-second-version-of-its-beta-v7-0-software-update-with-autopilot/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on September 19, 2015, 02:46:57 AM
I'm looking for reaction from the so called "clean diesel" advocates who like to claim new diesel cars are cleaner than EVs about the revelations about how VW TDI cars are polluting up to 40 times more than they are rated.

VW worked hard to design a control system to game the EPA test system to hide the pollution that doesn't meet standards.

Many articles about this today. Here's one.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150918-epaarb.html (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150918-epaarb.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 04:07:58 PM
And here's another article:

 VW, Audi TDI Diesel Cars Had 'Defeat Device' That Violated EPA Rules, 500K Cars Recalled
...German carmakers Volkswagen and Audi [have] been ordered to recall half a million of its popular TDI four-cylinder diesel vehicles sold in the U.S. from 2009 to 2015.

More startling, the EPA took the action because those TDI cars appeared to detect emission-testing cycles and significantly reduce their emissions under those circumstances.

The cars in question "contained software that turns off emissions controls when driving normally and turns them on when the car is undergoing an emissions test," according to Cynthia Giles, an EPA enforcement officer speaking on a teleconference for reporters.

Known as a "defeat device," that software allowed the cars to emit up to 40 times the maximum level of nitrous oxides permitted by EPA regulations, Giles said.
...
According to estimates, the cost of the recall to Volkswagen could reach $18 billion.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100101_vw-audi-tdi-diesel-cars-had-defeat-device-that-violated-epa-rules-500k-cars-recalled-breaking (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100101_vw-audi-tdi-diesel-cars-had-defeat-device-that-violated-epa-rules-500k-cars-recalled-breaking)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 04:09:47 PM
I wonder how these plans will be affected:

Volkswagen Microbus camper's return to be officially confirmed
Volkswagen officials set to confirm classic Camper van will return, with an all-electric derivative
Volkswagen is planning to reveal an updated version of its Microbus camper van concept at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next January prior to an official announcement by its chairman, Martin Winterkorn, confirming the iconic van’s return to the German car maker’s line-up.

Described as a close preview to a planned production version of the Microbus to be produced at Volkswagen’s Puebla factory in Mexico from 2017, the updated concept is set to showcase a newly developed electric drive system among other contemporary connectivity technologies.

The zero local emission driveline, which relies on the Volkswagen Group’s latest lithium-ion battery technology as used by the Audi R8 E-Tron and upcoming Audi E-Tron Quattro concept, is claimed to provide a range of between 400 and 500km (250-310 miles) depending on the driving conditions. ...

http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-ces/volkswagen-microbus-campers-return-be-officially-confirmed (http://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-ces/volkswagen-microbus-campers-return-be-officially-confirmed)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 05:21:14 PM
Well, your car will recognize you.  :)

Will You Even Recognize Your Car in the Near Future?
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/will-you-even-recognize-your-car-near-future-n429796 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/will-you-even-recognize-your-car-near-future-n429796)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 19, 2015, 06:27:28 PM
... and sailplanes, on the edge of space.

Climate Researchers Plan Glider Mission to Edge of Space
Not a lot is known about the weather at 90,000 feet above the earth’s surface, so a team of scientists and aviators are going to fly there using an engineless aircraft to learn more about what the weather at such extreme altitudes has to say about climate change.

It’s called the Perlan Project, and the glider the team will use — the Perlan Mission II glider — will attempt its first flight on Wednesday in Oregon, the first of many test flights before the aircraft rides a column of air rising off the Andes Mountains to 90,000 feet over South America sometime in 2016.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/glider-mission-to-edge-of-space-19472 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/glider-mission-to-edge-of-space-19472)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on September 19, 2015, 10:20:31 PM
VW worked hard to design a control system to game the EPA test system to hide the pollution that doesn't meet standards.

Okay, so people are going to jail now, right? Right?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 20, 2015, 11:55:59 PM
How the emissions cheat was discovered.

VW's Emissions Cheating Found by Curious Clean-Air Group
German and his group were actually trying to prove exactly what Volkswagen has been claiming for years: that diesel is clean. They asked West Virginia University for help. The school’s Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines and Emissions had the right equipment -- a portable emission measurement system to stick in the car trunk, attached to a probe to shove up the exhaust pipe. German’s group, funded mostly by foundations, didn’t.

Testers drove the monitor-equipped diesels from San Diego to Seattle because if Volkswagen had gamed the emission test, they couldn’t be sure how, German said. In another cheating case years ago, he said, long-haul trucks were equipped with devices that allowed the engines to gradually discharge more and more harmful nitrogen oxides the longer the vehicle cruised at the same speed. The more emissions, generally speaking, the greater the engine power. The 1,300-mile trip under varying conditions would expose any such scheme in the VWs, German said.
...
So began a series of events that resulted in Volkswagen AG admitting that it built “defeat device” software into a half-million of its diesel cars from 2009 to 2015 that automatically cheated on U.S. air-pollution tests. The world’s second-biggest carmaker now faces billions in fines, possible jail time for its executives and the undoing of its U.S. expansion plans.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-19/volkswagen-emissions-cheating-found-by-curious-clean-air-group (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-19/volkswagen-emissions-cheating-found-by-curious-clean-air-group)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 12:35:48 AM
VW worked hard to design a control system to game the EPA test system to hide the pollution that doesn't meet standards.

Okay, so people are going to jail now, right? Right?

I'd like to see part of their "punishment" be a requirement to start making huge numbers of EV's, and selling them at competitive (or cheaper) prices -- ramping up to NO fossil fuel cars at all, in, say, eight years.  Have them find a way to make EV's as attractive as the ICE cars they have been selling!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on September 21, 2015, 03:55:30 AM
The fine per car in violation of the rules is pretty close to the price of non-luxury EVs. So they could used all of the fine to buy something like 500,000 EVs to give away.

Dream on
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on September 21, 2015, 10:18:31 AM
Okay, so people are going to jail now, right? Right?

The world’s second-biggest carmaker now faces billions in fines, possible jail time for its executives

Okay, well at least they talk about it.  ::)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 21, 2015, 12:48:18 PM
The Volkswagen-scandal is a giant one. Today it is not clear if Volkswagen USA will survive this - it could be better to close the business there and to stay away from this niche market for small efficient (but obviously not so clean) cars. 18 billion fine and only 30 billion turnover last year and sureley less in future - that does not make any sense anymore. Say good by to the "peoples car" in USA.

It will be in the interest of the company to put the responsibles in jail. The bad thing is the damage to the efficient diesel injection technology in general - it is dead in USA now because of that scandal. Sorry for the other car manufactures and for the planet...

So jail for the responsible persons is a necessity for all parties.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 03:14:09 PM
Volkswagen Drops 23% After Admitting Diesel Emissions Cheat - Bloomberg Business
The U.S. charges are “grave” and must be clarified swiftly, said Stephan Weil, prime minister of the German state of Lower Saxony, which owns 20 percent of Volkswagen’s voting shares. “Possible consequences can be decided after that.”

The European Commission also said it’s taking VW’s cheating seriously and is in contact with U.S. regulators and the company about details of the case.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/volkswagen-drops-15-after-admitting-u-s-diesel-emissions-cheat (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-21/volkswagen-drops-15-after-admitting-u-s-diesel-emissions-cheat)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on September 21, 2015, 05:49:19 PM
Damn it. I drive a TDI. I love the car. Now what? Emissions vs. fuel economy is such a crappy game to try to play.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 08:13:00 PM
Just came across this, from August:

California Has a Plan to End the Auto Industry as We Know It
Mary Nichols, the California regulator who showed the world how to clean up smog, is pushing for all cars to be electric.
Nichols really does intend to force au­tomakers to eventually sell nothing but electrics. In an interview in June at her agency’s heavy-duty-truck laboratory in downtown Los Angeles, it becomes clear that Nichols, at age 70, is pushing regula­tions today that could by midcentury all but banish the internal combustion engine from California’s famous highways. “If we’re going to get our transportation system off petroleum,” she says, “we’ve got to get people used to a zero-emissions world, not just a little-bit-better version of the world they have now.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/california-regulator-mary-nichols-may-transform-the-auto-industry (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-03/california-regulator-mary-nichols-may-transform-the-auto-industry)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 10:12:24 PM
More info, including things to know if you are an owner, or a prospective buyer.  And the initial fallout.

VW Diesel Emissions Recall: What You Need To Know In 10 Questions
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100125_vw-diesel-emissions-recall-what-you-need-to-know-in-10-questions (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100125_vw-diesel-emissions-recall-what-you-need-to-know-in-10-questions)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 21, 2015, 11:34:28 PM
Pedal to the metal: Apple reportedly accelerates electric car project timeline to 2019, triples development team size
http://electrek.co/2015/09/21/apple-project-titan-triples-team-2019-launch/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/21/apple-project-titan-triples-team-2019-launch/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 22, 2015, 12:51:58 PM
There is of course lots more where this comes from, but for now......

http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/vw%E2%80%99s-cheating-just-tip-iceberg (http://www.transportenvironment.org/publications/vw%E2%80%99s-cheating-just-tip-iceberg)

Over the past three years, Transport & Environment (T&E), with the support of the International Council on Clean Transportation (that alerted US authorities to its concerns over VW), has exposed countless ways carmakers manipulate emissions tests for both air pollution and CO2 emissions (fuel economy).

Through trickery, the gap between official fuel economy figures and those achieved by an average driver have grown to 40%. For new diesel cars nitrogen oxide emissions are typically five times higher on the road than the allowed limit and just one in 10 cars meets the required level on the road. But for some models the gap is so large T&E suspects that the car is able to detect when it is tested using a “defeat device” and artificially lowers emissions during the test.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2015, 01:49:51 PM
Estimate of affected vehicles now up to 11 million.

Volkswagen: 11 Million Vehicles Could Have Suspect Software in Emissions Scandal
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-vehicles-could-have-suspect-software-emissions-scandal-n431456 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/volkswagen-11-million-vehicles-could-have-suspect-software-emissions-scandal-n431456)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2015, 04:50:39 PM
VW scandal: $7.3B profit warning but damage could hit Germany
There are concerns that, much like the Libor scandal was initially publicized by Barclays but then found to include other top investment banks, the emissions tampering will not have been confined to Volkswagen. Other manufacturers with diesel as a large part of their business include BMW, with 35 percent of its fleet; Daimler, 45 percent; PSA Peugeot Citroën, 40 percent; and Renault Nissan, 25 percent, according to JP Morgan estimates. The European industry will be disproportionately hit if this is found to have been a problem across the diesel automakers.
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/vw-scandal-germanys-reputation-on-the-line.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/22/vw-scandal-germanys-reputation-on-the-line.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2015, 04:57:43 PM
What Is India's Prime Minister Doing At A Tesla Factory? 
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-prime-minister-doing-tesla-205005044.html (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indias-prime-minister-doing-tesla-205005044.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 22, 2015, 07:25:49 PM
VW Scandal Will Speed Up Diesel's Demise
The Volkswagen emissions scandal has broader implications than the potential damage it can do to Europe's biggest carmaker. It's the result of Europe backing the wrong emissions-reducing technology on a regulatory level. There is now an opportunity to reverse that error and force the continent's сar manufacturers to concentrate on hybrid and electric vehicles. They've got the technology and resources to reshape the market.

The scandal is about VW's bad business decision to cheat testing equipment so it could rush new engine models to market in the U.S. It is also about a failure of regulatory oversight and testing technology. Most of all, however, it's about diesel engines: They were the ones performing so badly on the tests that VW engineers had to look for a workaround so marketers could trumpet the advent of "clean" diesel.
...
It's possible that the incentives were  the result of oil industry lobbying -- as the sales of fuel oil fell, refiners needed to sell more diesel fuel, which is a similar type of product. But they probably stemmed from a misunderstanding of the environmental consequences. "Green" regulation in European countries has centered on CO2 emissions, and diesel exhaust contains relatively little of that gas. Smog-creating NOx and soot particles were overlooked until the ultra-strict Euro 6 standard came into effect this month.

The French authorities have now realized this. It would have been hard not to: Paris now has a smog problem, which it didn't have in the 1990s. "In France, the diesel engine has long been privileged," Prime Minister Manuel Valls told an environmental conference in November, 2014. "That was a mistake." The government now wants to move toward a diesel ban, which will force Renault and Peugeot to make a difficult transition since about two-thirds of the cars they now sell in Europe are equipped with diesel engines.
...
European automakers have the technology to compete in the electric vehicle market: Their models outsell Japanese and American ones in EU countries where electric powertrains are popular. In business terms, however, the move away from diesel -- which should accelerate now -- will be extremely costly, much more expensive than the regulatory fines the industry will probably face in the aftermath of the VW scandal.

There's light at the end of the tunnel, though. Once the transition is completed, the Europeans, with their engineering strength, will make the hybrid and electric market much more competitive. In the U.S., too, Volkswagen will be back: After all, its e-Golf outsells the Tesla Model S in Norway today.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-22/vw-s-scandal-will-lead-to-the-demise-of-diesel (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-22/vw-s-scandal-will-lead-to-the-demise-of-diesel)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2015, 05:38:49 PM
Pomp and Fiat: Pope Rolls Up to White House in Tiny Car
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/pope-francis-visits-america/pomp-fiat-pope-rolls-white-house-tiny-car-n432276 (http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/pope-francis-visits-america/pomp-fiat-pope-rolls-white-house-tiny-car-n432276)

Edit - another article:
The pope shuns the big limousine for more modest wheels to tour the U.S.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-22/here-s-one-papal-fiat-that-can-give-francis-some-mileage (http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-09-22/here-s-one-papal-fiat-that-can-give-francis-some-mileage)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 23, 2015, 09:59:25 PM
VW Emission Cheating Could Kill Diesel Passenger Cars In U.S., Even Globally
Thus far, U.S. media have posed the fate of diesel vehicles as an open question. But much commentary in Europe seems more decisive than that in U.S. media outlets.

Many German, British, and other European news stories and opinions suggest that the scandal will put an end to the use of diesel engines in light-duty passenger cars and SUVs.

British newspaper The Telegraph, for example, published an article openly suggesting that the "Volkswagen scandal could kill off diesel cars." And many more echoed the theme.
...
Former Wired editor and noted prognosticator Chris Anderson tweeted yesterday, "Someday history will record the VW diesel scandal as the global tipping point for electric cars."
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100168_vw-emission-cheating-could-kill-diesel-passenger-cars-in-u-s-even-globally (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100168_vw-emission-cheating-could-kill-diesel-passenger-cars-in-u-s-even-globally)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2015, 03:10:39 AM
EPA Expands VW Diesel Probe To Audi, Porsche V-6s; All Diesels To Be Tested
D.C. insiders say that the agency is expected to retest every single diesel passenger vehicle now on the market.

They would be subjected to extensive on-road use to see if they emit more in real-world driving than they did in their lab tests.

That list totals 39 vehicles this year, according to the Diesel Technology Forum.

They include 2015 and 2016 cars and SUVs from Audi, BMW, Chevrolet, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, and Ram.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100167_epa-expands-vw-diesel-probe-to-audi-porsche-v-6s-all-diesels-to-be-tested (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100167_epa-expands-vw-diesel-probe-to-audi-porsche-v-6s-all-diesels-to-be-tested)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Csnavywx on September 24, 2015, 04:29:06 AM
Ugh, that's not necessarily a good thing. Diesel engines are considerably more efficient than petrol (and last considerably longer). True, I'd like to see them all replaced by electric, but the infrastructure and price just aren't quite there yet.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: icefest on September 24, 2015, 05:16:26 AM
Ugh, that's not necessarily a good thing. Diesel engines are considerably more efficient than petrol (and last considerably longer). True, I'd like to see them all replaced by electric, but the infrastructure and price just aren't quite there yet.

And if you read the original test BMW achieved lower emissions even without cheating.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 24, 2015, 10:20:28 AM
Ugh, that's not necessarily a good thing. Diesel engines are considerably more efficient than petrol (and last considerably longer). True, I'd like to see them all replaced by electric, but the infrastructure and price just aren't quite there yet.

And if you read the original test BMW achieved lower emissions even without cheating.
And if you read further in the study ordered by the German ICCT last year (http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars (http://www.theicct.org/real-world-exhaust-emissions-modern-diesel-cars) ) and also the sources from VW (Volkswagen) then you see, that VW safed 200 € per car (for the additional catalysator) using that cheating software instead to get the permission from EPA.

So: It is not the diesel technology to blame but the _very_ stupid decisions and the marketing of VW USA. They safed 200 $ and payed 22 billion share loss, surely a significant fine, expensive repair of a lot of cars and a broken image...

This desaster may well be a turning point of the car industry. Expect news from other companies in the next week since they will measure real world emissions in other diesel and petrol cars soon. Winterkorn (head of VW, the world largest car manufacturer in 1st half of 2015) left allready and other things will change, too.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2015, 01:34:00 PM
I happened upon a discussion of the VW story on the financial channel CNBC yesterday.  After they noted all major automobile stocks were taking a hit, they turned to what stocks could benefit, and two analysts surprised each other by saying, "Tesla" (a company which is habitually denigrated by most stock traders).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 24, 2015, 01:40:47 PM
I happened upon a discussion of the VW story on the financial channel CNBC yesterday.  After they noted all major automobile stocks were taking a hit, they turned to what stocks could benefit, and two analysts surprised each other by saying, "Tesla" (a company which is habitually denigrated by most stock traders).
Analysts should mention some Chinese car manufacturers. The future electric vehicle will be made in China - but perhaps the marketing/branding will come from Apple or other "pure image companies". It is safe to ignore Tesla, I think. Maybe Tesla can overtake Porsche one day but maybe even not that.

edit: In future maybe the software for automatic driving will still come from Germany. Todays "assistance systems" and control software are very sophisticated and able to cheat also a lot of other things short of emissions...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2015, 01:54:34 PM
It is safe to ignore Tesla, I think.

LOL.  ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 24, 2015, 04:07:20 PM
And in other news....  :)

Tesla is in talks with “some auto manufacturers” to share the Supercharger Network
The Tesla Superchargers are the fastest DC charging stations in world with a charging rate of 135 kW for the most recent stations. The battery packs of most electric vehicles in production today cannot receive that much power, which is a requirement for Tesla to allow other manufacturers to use the network. Electric vehicles using the stations must be able to charge at high rates in order for charge times to be quick and keep the charging stalls open.

An average Tesla Supercharging station can add 170 miles of range to a Model S in about half an hour, making it ideal for long distance driving. While Tesla offers battery pack options from 70 to 90 kWh, most electric vehicles today have smaller battery packs ranging from 15 to 35 kWh. Trying to charge a small battery pack with a Tesla Supercharger would be like trying to fill a shooter glass with a water pressure washer, which is not a good idea.

Considering the requirement, it’s not clear which manufacturers would have vehicles able to use the network or when, but Musk confirmed that Tesla is in talks with several automakers:

"We are actually in talks with some manufacturers doing just that and it will be exciting to share that news."
http://electrek.co/2015/09/24/tesla-is-in-talks-with-other-auto-manufacturers-to-share-the-supercharger-network/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/24/tesla-is-in-talks-with-other-auto-manufacturers-to-share-the-supercharger-network/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2015, 07:33:42 PM
Elon Musk: What Volkswagen is really showing is that we reached the limit of what is possible with diesel and gasoline.
http://electrek.co/2015/09/25/elon-musk-what-vw-is-really-showing-is-that-we-reached-the-limit-of-what-is-possible-with-diesel-and-gasoline/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/25/elon-musk-what-vw-is-really-showing-is-that-we-reached-the-limit-of-what-is-possible-with-diesel-and-gasoline/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2015, 08:50:05 PM
Machinery giant Caterpillar shedding 10,000 jobs as mining, oil, and gas orders plummet.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-25/analyst-downgrades-caterpillar-amid-machinery-meltdown- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-25/analyst-downgrades-caterpillar-amid-machinery-meltdown-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2015, 09:15:29 PM
When Tesla And Apple Compete To Out-Do Each Other On Electric Cars, The Planet Wins
The future of cars is finally upon us — and it is electrifying. The Wall Street Journal reports Apple is speeding up its efforts to build and ship an electric vehicle by 2019.

By that time, there should be at least three or four affordable EVs with a 200+ mile range on the market — along with thousands and thousands more charging stations, many of which can do most of their charging in 20 minutes or so. And thanks to Obama’s Clean Power Plan, the grid will be steadily reducing its carbon intensity, making EVs greener and greener with every passing year.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/24/3704604/tesla-apple/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/09/24/3704604/tesla-apple/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 25, 2015, 09:38:22 PM
VW Isn’t Even The Worst Polluter
Emissions regulators shouldn’t be surprised that gaps between test and real-world results are a widespread problem: after all, it lets the auto industry test itself. The agency only comes in after the fact to validate the results of just 10-15 percent of all models. Moreover, the test cycle itself is performed on a dynamometer (or “rolling road”) in a lab environment, offering ample opportunity to tweak results. VW has admitted to a relatively simple yet extreme exploitation of this system: when the vehicle’s engine control unit senses that it is putting power down but not all the wheels are turning, the car switches to a “test mode.”

In VW diesels that “test mode” was compliant with U.S. standards, but once the car switched to normal operation it would emit as much as 40 times more NOx than the allowed. Without real-world testing or forensic software engineers on staff capable of combing through huge amounts of code to look for such exploits, the only way the EPA was able to discover this trick was by forcing VW to admit that it had truly cheated.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/25/vw-isn-t-even-the-worst-polluter-tests-are-made-to-be-fooled.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/25/vw-isn-t-even-the-worst-polluter-tests-are-made-to-be-fooled.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: johnm33 on September 25, 2015, 09:51:02 PM
Instead of digital fiddling maybe this idea could be revived, as a retro fit for all those deisels, probably out of patent too. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/inventors-clean-air-exhaust-rejected-1500439.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/inventors-clean-air-exhaust-rejected-1500439.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2015, 09:27:08 PM
Musk:  EV range will increase 5 to 10% a year....

Earlier this week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk was interviewed by the Danish news site Borsen and hinted that the range of the Model S could dramatically increase very soon.

“The record right now for the Model S is 800 kilometers, that is the furthest that anyone has driven a Model S… we are pretty close,” Musk said. “My guess is probably we could break a 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) within a year or two. I’d say 2017 for sure.”

While the record for hypermiling a Tesla is 497 miles (800 km), the Model S range according to the EPA is 265 miles (426 km) on a single charge. A range of 621 miles (1,000 km) would mean that Tesla more than doubles how far the car can drive per charge.

Musk added that by 2020, Tesla will likely be able to make its cars go 745 miles on a single charge (1,200 km). The company aims to increase its cars range by five to 10 per cent a year, he said.
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-says-tesla-car-range-will-increase-2015-9 (http://www.businessinsider.com.au/elon-musk-says-tesla-car-range-will-increase-2015-9)

Other details in the article's embedded video.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 26, 2015, 10:02:54 PM
The pope's car says much about him.

Pope Francis and His Little Fiat
http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pope-francis-and-his-little-fiat (http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pope-francis-and-his-little-fiat)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on September 26, 2015, 10:11:48 PM
Saw a Tesla Model S for the first time today here in Austria (I live in a rural area).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 04:38:04 AM
Saw a Tesla Model S for the first time today here in Austria (I live in a rural area).

Jealous!  (I live in the boonies, too.)  Perhaps they're sprouting up because Elon Musk is in Europe this week.  ;)

The one time I saw a Nissan LEAF, in town, I nearly drove off the road trying to get a look at it....   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 27, 2015, 03:52:47 PM
My own recent musings on the topic of "VWGate":

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/09/has-the-door-opened-to-a-very-different-car-industry (http://www.V2G.co.uk/2015/09/has-the-door-opened-to-a-very-different-car-industry)

Suggestions of collusion between governments and the motoring industry have been bolstered by an allegation from a former transport minister that David Cameron agreed to delay imposing a new emissions limit after a personal request by Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, to protect her country’s motor industry.

If things pan out the way The Economist are suggesting perhap the landscape of the European motor industry will look very different in a few years time? However in the short term we here at V2G UK cannot wait to discover what the likes of David Cameron, Angela Merkel, DEFRA and the DfT have to say about the matter tomorrow morning!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 27, 2015, 04:01:49 PM
Jealous!  (I live in the boonies, too.)  Perhaps they're sprouting up because Elon Musk is in Europe this week.  ;)

I live in the boonies too, but I recently went to the big city with Zoe. Jealous?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Espen on September 27, 2015, 06:57:10 PM
Switzerland already forbid the sale of VW diesels, and Germany will ban the sale and use of diesel VWs if a very good answer is not received by October 7 2015:

http://e24.no/bil/volkswagen/tyskland-legger-press-paa-volkswagen/23532257 (http://e24.no/bil/volkswagen/tyskland-legger-press-paa-volkswagen/23532257)

People like the top management of VW is really hurting the capitalist ideology in a big way, Karl Marx must be spinning in his grave!!!!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 07:41:55 PM
Jealous!  (I live in the boonies, too.)  Perhaps they're sprouting up because Elon Musk is in Europe this week.  ;)

I live in the boonies too, but I recently went to the big city with Zoe. Jealous?

Definitely! 

Country living and EV/solar were made for each other.  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 08:34:30 PM
Electrifying heavy-duty trucks, shuttles and buses
That operating system is at the heart of Motiv’s All-Electric Powertrain, which combines commercially available battery packs and motors with Motiv’s software and controllers to make all-electric trucks and buses with the same chassis and bodies as the fossil-fueled versions. These all-electric trucks and buses are ideal for fleet vehicles such as box trucks, flat-bed trucks, refrigerated trucks, service trucks, shuttle buses, school buses, delivery vehicles and garbage trucks.
https://chargedevs.com/features/silicon-valleys-motiv-helps-electrify-heavy-duty-trucks-shuttles-and-buses/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on September 27, 2015, 08:48:49 PM
Switzerland already forbid the sale of VW diesels, and Germany will ban the sale and use of diesel VWs if a very good answer is not received by October 7 2015:

http://e24.no/bil/volkswagen/tyskland-legger-press-paa-volkswagen/23532257 (http://e24.no/bil/volkswagen/tyskland-legger-press-paa-volkswagen/23532257)

People like the top management of VW is really hurting the capitalist ideology in a big way, Karl Marx must be spinning in his grave!!!!
It is looking like we will get that answer in time next week: http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/volkswagen-konzern-plant-rueckrufaktion-fuer-diesel-a-1054964.html (http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/volkswagen-konzern-plant-rueckrufaktion-fuer-diesel-a-1054964.html)

A recall campaign is in preparation to fix the emission-issue free of monetary cost. But probably power will be reduced and fuel consumption will be increased. Using the same engine improvement in emissions must result in worsening of the other two goals...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 05:50:50 AM
France encouraged diesel use for years -- and now it's hard to switch.
France woke up to its diesel problem after Paris was choked with rough pollution spells over the past two years, prompting the city government to briefly restrict car use. At one point, Paris registered higher levels of nitrogen oxides than smoggy Beijing. Paris and its suburbs have few factories left — meaning the main source of that pollution was its cars, according to the Airparif monitoring agency.
...
Mayor Anne Hidalgo wants to "eradicate diesel" by 2020, and is already taking steps in that direction. Next year all big trucks and buses made before 2001 and all cars made before 1997 will be banned from the city.

But she's saddled with nearly 300 diesel buses ordered by her predecessor that are just entering service — and will be driving on Paris roads until 2030.

And fellow Socialists in the national government do not share her antipathy toward diesel, in part because of concerns that phasing it out would hit the poor hardest.

"When we encouraged diesel for years, when you have millions of families driving on diesel, millions of workers who go to work in their diesel cars, it's not from one day to the next that you can punish them because they made these choices, and they don't have money to replace their cars," Environment Minister Royal said recently.
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/city-blight-amid-vw-scandal-polluted-paris-asks-if-time-n434516 (http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/city-blight-amid-vw-scandal-polluted-paris-asks-if-time-n434516)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 10:22:06 PM
VW Diesel Drivers Hurt, Confused, Angry, Remorseful
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100228_vw-diesel-drivers-hurt-confused-angry-remorseful (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100228_vw-diesel-drivers-hurt-confused-angry-remorseful)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 10:45:03 PM
Audi Says 2.1 Million Cars Affected by Emissions Software
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/audi-says-2-1-million-diesel-cars-affected-by-emissions-software (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-28/audi-says-2-1-million-diesel-cars-affected-by-emissions-software)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 28, 2015, 10:54:55 PM
Why Did Volkswagen Cheat On Diesel Emissions In Its TDI Cars?
Why would a huge global automaker like Volkswagen circumvent U.S. emission rules rather than comply with them?

The answer comes down to a combination of cost, fuel efficiency, and drivingperformance.
...
And in Europe, since the 1990s, diesel cars have made up roughly half of all passenger car sales. The numbers vary by country, but in the European Union, it's been at one of two for 10 years.

As Europe's best-selling automaker by far, Volkswagen has devoted an inordinate amount of its powertrain development effort to diesel engines.

The problem is that U.S. and European emission standards for diesel diverged sharply in 2008. The U.S. adopted much stricter rules (known as "Tier 2, Bin 5") on emissions of virtually every component of diesel exhaust.

Europe, on the other hand, stayed with the so-called Euro 5 standards. Its emission limits only moved up to roughly the U.S. level this year.

But while other makers--including Toyota, Honda, General Motors, and Ford--began to introduce gasoline hybrid-electric vehicles to boost their fuel efficiency, VW chose to stick with diesels.

The depth of the company's commitment to diesel engines, even in a U.S. market that showed little natural appetite for them, can be illustrated by one anecdote.

"If U.S. car buyers were smarter and better informed," said a highly-placed Volkswagen powertrain executive to this reporter, "they'd buy our clean diesels instead of all this hybrid nonsense."

He went on to explain that diesels were naturally more cost-efficient than hybrids, because the latter required fitting two separate powertrains (gasoline and electric) and a very pricey battery pack into a car.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100225_why-did-volkswagen-cheat-on-diesel-emissions-in-its-tdi-cars (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100225_why-did-volkswagen-cheat-on-diesel-emissions-in-its-tdi-cars)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 01:53:11 PM
Per their website, Tesla Model X launch will be streamed live at http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx (http://www.teslamotors.com/modelx) tonight at 8pm Pacific Time (11pm Eastern, 3am UTC). 
Yes, earlier announcements said 7pm Pacific .  But you know Tesla schedules....  ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 02:22:01 PM
Google teaching its self-driving cars to behave more like people, be more predictable, less annoying
http://electrek.co/2015/09/29/google-self-driving-cars-humans/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/29/google-self-driving-cars-humans/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 04:57:51 PM
Yet another study: EVs emit less carbon than legacy vehicles, including electricity generation
  This one was produced by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/yet-another-study-evs-emit-less-carbon-than-legacy-vehicles-including-electricity-generation/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on September 29, 2015, 06:53:51 PM
More evidence that even car and trucks that supposedly meet the new Euro 6 emission limits and producing much more NOx and CO2 in real world conditions.

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150929-toi.html (http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150929-toi.html)

So much for the claims that EVs emit more CO2 than diesels.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 29, 2015, 08:35:21 PM
One of these days, I hope there will be enough news about electric airplanes to give them their own thread.  In the meantime:

Blame an FAA Blunder for the Lack of Electric Airplanes
http://www.wired.com/2015/09/blame-faa-blunder-lack-electric-airplanes/ (http://www.wired.com/2015/09/blame-faa-blunder-lack-electric-airplanes/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 03:18:24 AM
Musk: Trickery “The Only Option” For Engineers In VW Scandal?
Although internal combustion engines are for the most part getting a little more efficient with every new model year, there’s no avoiding a cold fact: that whether they’re gasoline or diesel—or even a groundbreaking design under the hood of the 2016 Prius—they’re highly inefficient next to battery-electric vehicles.

That’s part of why Tesla Motors CEO Elon Musk argues that electric cars are the future, while any improvements to internal-combustion engines will be smaller. “There must have been lots of VW engineers under pressure—they’ve run into a physical wall of what might be possible so trickery was the only option,” speculated Musk, in an interview with the UK publication Auto Express.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100252_musk-trickery-the-only-option-for-engineers-in-vw-scandal (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100252_musk-trickery-the-only-option-for-engineers-in-vw-scandal)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:26:12 AM
VW's Promised Fix for Diesels Doesn't Apply to U.S. Vehicles: Source
Volkswagen's promise to deliver a fix for its rigged diesel engine "in the next few days" refers to vehicles sold in Europe and other foreign markets, not the U.S., according to a company source.
...
The source said the retrofit in the U.S. is likely to require separate solutions for three different versions of the WA 189 diesel engine sold over the seven years since it was introduced, and may also require hardware changes in addition to altering the software.

As a result of that complexity, company officials are still working with the EPA, and announcement of a solution for U.S. VW owners remains some time off, the source said.

The automaker did not release any details on the retrofit, which will deactivate a "defeat device" -- software that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency found was secretly added to the vehicles to detect when they were undergoing emissions testing. The software would activate all emissions control systems during the testing, then switch many of them off when it was concluded, allowing the vehicles to produce up to 40 times the legal limit of dangerous smog-causing nitrogen oxides.

Experts said the retrofit will almost certainly involve replacing the software code that enabled the cheating.

But they said that VW also may have to modify most of the 4-cylinder diesel engines in the 482,000 cars sold in the U.S. to add a urea injection system. That is a more-advanced approach to reducing nitrogen oxides than the emissions-control system that was originally used on the vehicles, a choice driven by Volkswagen's interest in holding down costs.
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/vws-promised-fix-diesels-doesnt-apply-u-s-vehicles-source-n435746 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/vws-promised-fix-diesels-doesnt-apply-u-s-vehicles-source-n435746)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on September 30, 2015, 08:48:32 AM
It all reminds me a bit about this decade-old discussion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYW5I96h-9w# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYW5I96h-9w#)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 02:50:39 PM
More aviation news:

Heathrow Chief Calls for Carbon Cuts, Clean Fuel Research
Heathrow Airport Ltd. Chief Executive Officer John Holland-Kaye called for world leaders to accelerate greenhouse gas reductions and push for a mandatory carbon-offset program for the aviation industry to fight climate change.

The head of London’s biggest airport signed an open letter also seeking more research into cleaner fuels and better efficiency technology, according to a statement on Wednesday by Heathrow. The letter, released at the Global Sustainable Aviation meeting in Geneva, calls for the International Civil Aviation Organization, the industry regulator, to agree on a new carbon offset market by 2020.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/heathrow-chief-calls-for-carbon-cuts-alternative-fuel-research (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-29/heathrow-chief-calls-for-carbon-cuts-alternative-fuel-research)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: crandles on September 30, 2015, 03:28:25 PM
Tesla has launched its long-awaited Model X, which has a "bio-weapon defence" system and double-hinged doors that open upwards.

The Model X is priced as high as $144,000

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34399746 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34399746)

= irrelevant to most people ?
Therefore highly sort after status symbol?

Wonderful logic which might just work and if it brings profits to allow expansion in to cheaper car market ....
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:02:36 PM
Tesla has launched its long-awaited Model X, which has a "bio-weapon defence" system and double-hinged doors that open upwards.

The Model X is priced as high as $144,000

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34399746 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-34399746)

= irrelevant to most people ?
Therefore highly sort after status symbol?

Wonderful logic which might just work and if it brings profits to allow expansion in to cheaper car market ....
Exactly.  Elon Musk has said that buyers of the Model S and X are helping to finance the $35,000 Model 3 "car for the masses."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:04:13 PM
It all reminds me a bit about this decade-old discussion:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYW5I96h-9w# (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYW5I96h-9w#)

Which makes this article all too timely:

Feds: Fiat Chrysler Automobiles failed to disclose death, injury reports
http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/chrysler/2015/09/29/fca-injury-reports-feds/73035796/ (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/chrysler/2015/09/29/fca-injury-reports-feds/73035796/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 30, 2015, 04:19:21 PM
So here are some articles on the Tesla Model X, which launched last night.  Besides the safety features (first SUV with 5-star rating in all categories; "biohazard defense” air circulation setting), I think the biggest optic was pulling an Airstream travel trailer on stage (towing capacity is 5,000 pounds), carrying three adults, four kids, and lots of luggage.  This ain't your father's golf cart!  EV's are a serious competitor to ICE cars, and more car companies will soon be offering more affordable choices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/elon-musk-delivers-tesla-s-first-model-x-suvs-in-california (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/elon-musk-delivers-tesla-s-first-model-x-suvs-in-california)

http://www.wired.com/2015/09/tesla-model-x-suv-reveal-specs-price (http://www.wired.com/2015/09/tesla-model-x-suv-reveal-specs-price)

http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/tesla-model-x-this-is-it-1733682873 (http://truckyeah.jalopnik.com/tesla-model-x-this-is-it-1733682873)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-30/tesla-launches-new-model-x-suv (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-30/tesla-launches-new-model-x-suv)
(Video, with clips from last night’s launch.)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on September 30, 2015, 07:51:37 PM
Instead of me ranting some more about diesels here's Bobby Llewellyn of the Fully Charged responding to "#dieselgate"

https://youtu.be/Tb3VioRoV6s

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: TerryM on September 30, 2015, 09:18:07 PM
Milton not only refuses to bite the hand that feeds him, he insists on slavishly licking it in public.


I happen to think that N0X is much less harmful than C02 & would opt for the high mileage vehicle under most circumstances. therefor diesel over gasoline.


What little I have learned of electrical vehicles leads me to believe that this is the technology that most will support going forward, and that this is probably a good thing. Diesel may still retain the high end truck and ship market & I have difficulty imagining plug in tanks or troop carriers.


Where does this leave bio-diesel, or has this technology past the best use before date.


Terry
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2015, 12:07:31 AM
And here is a link to the 30-minute video (from Tesla cameras, not someone's cell phone :) ) of the Model X launch/presentation last night.

https://youtu.be/RUz_EXSmp9w
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2015, 03:55:17 PM
Japan to Allow Test of Self-Driving Taxis Ahead of 2020 Olympics
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-01/japan-to-allow-test-of-self-driving-taxis-ahead-of-2020-olympics (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-01/japan-to-allow-test-of-self-driving-taxis-ahead-of-2020-olympics)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 01, 2015, 04:05:20 PM
How to address one of the "problems" with electric vehicles.   ;D

@_youhadonejob: Wtf? ...
http://t.co/aFqMmkIZWJ (http://t.co/aFqMmkIZWJ)

https://twitter.com/_youhadonejob/status/649517400812032000 (https://twitter.com/_youhadonejob/status/649517400812032000)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 05, 2015, 03:27:41 AM
The National Park Service has been struggling with the problem of pollution inside national parks for decades.  Great Smoky Mountains National Park recently added EV charging, and cleaner vehicles for its own use.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park Gets EV Charging
http://pluginsites.org/great-smoky-mountains-national-park-gets-ev-charging/ (http://pluginsites.org/great-smoky-mountains-national-park-gets-ev-charging/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2015, 03:31:29 AM
European Makers: NOx Limits Must Rise For Real-World Emissions Tests
Automakers "cannot meet pollution regulations when cars are taken out of testing laboratories."
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100332_european-makers-nox-limits-must-rise-for-real-world-emissions-tests (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100332_european-makers-nox-limits-must-rise-for-real-world-emissions-tests)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 06, 2015, 11:51:34 PM
VW Diesel Emission Scandal: Five Possible Long-Range Effects
A struggling brand, with the wrong product mix, minimal electrification technology, and a new reputation for deliberately flouting the law of the land has a tough road ahead of it.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100346_vw-diesel-emission-scandal-five-possible-long-range-effects (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100346_vw-diesel-emission-scandal-five-possible-long-range-effects)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 07, 2015, 01:21:30 AM
U.S. House Panel Prepares to Press VW on Cheating Timeline
The Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday disclosed its own investigation into whether Volkswagen lied to the U.S. government in certifying its diesel vehicles as eligible for alternative motor vehicle tax credits, which are used to develop the market for higher-cost, less polluting cars.
Volkswagen’s 2009 Jetta TDI Sedan and SportWagen models qualified for $1,300 per vehicle tax credits, and several 2010 models were later certified as eligible, Senators Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, and Ron Wyden, an Oregon Democrat, said in a letter to VW executives on Tuesday. More than $50 million in subsidies went to the cars’ buyers, they said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/u-s-house-panel-prepares-grill-volkswagen-on-cheating-timeline (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/u-s-house-panel-prepares-grill-volkswagen-on-cheating-timeline)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 09, 2015, 11:21:04 PM
Quebec to expands electric transport program with $420 million over 5 years
The funds will finance the provincial program to offer up to $8,000 in rebates at the purchase of electric vehicles.

The new plan includes an EV infrastructure aspect. Quebec will install 785 public charging stations including 60 DC fast-charging stations in the province. They will also encourage businesses to install charging stations for employees. The government currently offer a rebate up to 75% of the cost to install charging stations for business owners.
...
99% of electricity generation in Quebec come from renewable sources, thanks to inexpensive hydro-electricity, making the province an ideal market for electric transport. The program should go a long way in helping kick-start the industry in the province.
http://electrek.co/2015/10/09/quebec-to-expands-electric-transport-program-with-420-million-over-5-years/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/09/quebec-to-expands-electric-transport-program-with-420-million-over-5-years/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 12, 2015, 09:59:08 PM
Tesla Model X SUV Qualifies For $25K 'HUMMER Tax Break' in the U.S.  8)

For business equipment, any vehicle weighing more than 6,000 pounds that is "an integral part of ... furnishing transportation."
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100416_tesla-model-x-suv-qualifies-for-25k-hummer-tax-break (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100416_tesla-model-x-suv-qualifies-for-25k-hummer-tax-break)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 02:20:32 PM
In the U.S.:  How Will VW Fix My Diesel Car, And When? A List Of All Models
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100400_how-will-vw-fix-my-diesel-car-and-when-a-list-of-all-models (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100400_how-will-vw-fix-my-diesel-car-and-when-a-list-of-all-models)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 03:54:35 PM
VW To Focus On Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Tech, Slash Spending Due To Diesel Scandal
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on October 13, 2015, 08:32:05 PM
VW To Focus On Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Tech, Slash Spending Due To Diesel Scandal
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal)

So.... I'm just supposed to drive my TDI for another year or so until VW gets around to fixing it? I sent correspondence to VW customer "care" 2.5 weeks ago. Still no response, not even an automated one.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on October 13, 2015, 08:41:09 PM
VW To Focus On Electric, Plug-In Hybrid Tech, Slash Spending Due To Diesel Scandal
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100444_vw-to-focus-on-electric-plug-in-hybrid-tech-slash-spending-due-to-diesel-scandal)

So.... I'm just supposed to drive my TDI for another year or so until VW gets around to fixing it? I sent correspondence to VW customer "care" 2.5 weeks ago. Still no response, not even an automated one. It's really frustrating.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 09:17:21 PM
So.... I'm just supposed to drive my TDI for another year or so until VW gets around to fixing it? I sent correspondence to VW customer "care" 2.5 weeks ago. Still no response, not even an automated one. It's really frustrating.
Begs the question as to what "safe to drive" really means.  :o
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 13, 2015, 09:51:35 PM
Aston Martin Seeks `Beauty and Soul’ in All-Electric Sports Cars
“We’re a V-12 engine company,” the executive said, referring to the engines used in Aston Martin cars. “Project that into the future. Do I go the way of the rest of the industry and downsize the engine? Do I see Aston Martin with a three cylinder engine? God forbid.”
...
Palmer said Aston Martin will remain a maker of luxury sports cars, avoiding competition with Elon Musk’s Tesla Motors Inc., which makes all-electric sports cars. The Aston Martin executive’s impression is that Musk will increasingly target the middle-market with more affordable cars. Palmer said he wants to avoid anything “vanilla in the middle.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-12/aston-martin-seeks-beauty-and-soul-in-all-electric-sports-cars (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-12/aston-martin-seeks-beauty-and-soul-in-all-electric-sports-cars)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on October 13, 2015, 10:25:55 PM
So.... I'm just supposed to drive my TDI for another year or so until VW gets around to fixing it? I sent correspondence to VW customer "care" 2.5 weeks ago. Still no response, not even an automated one. It's really frustrating.
Begs the question as to what "safe to drive" really means.  :o
No kidding. What's a little more smog between friends, right? It's only a little respiratory failure....

New lawsuit filed for Californians requiring VW do a buyback since it can't correct the emissions in any timely way. I guess I'll see where this goes. As an environmental professional and conscious citizen, this sucks NOx.
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-volkswagen-diesel-buyback-lawsuit-20151012-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-volkswagen-diesel-buyback-lawsuit-20151012-story.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 04:21:02 AM
The audio is rather choppy and somewhat hard to follow, but if you are curious about the Tesla autopilot system, there is a wealth of information in the linked audio presentation from Elon Musk.  The Tesla system apparently is unique in that each car uploads driving data, allowing all the cars to "learn" from each other and improve over time (about one million miles of experience a day) -- down to lane changes and parking lot flow.

Tesla reveals all the details of its ‘Autopilot’ and its software v7.0 [slide presentation and audio conference]
http://electrek.co/2015/10/14/tesla-reveals-all-the-details-of-its-autopilot-and-its-software-v7-0-slide-presentation-and-audio-conference/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/14/tesla-reveals-all-the-details-of-its-autopilot-and-its-software-v7-0-slide-presentation-and-audio-conference/)

Edit: And an article by a driver describing his experience with the new system:
http://www.engadget.com/2015/10/14/Tesla-autosteer-drive/ (http://www.engadget.com/2015/10/14/Tesla-autosteer-drive/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 04:17:57 PM
First Tesla V7 Autopilot videos begin hitting web
http://electrek.co/2015/10/15/first-tesla-autopilot-videos-begin-hitting-web/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/15/first-tesla-autopilot-videos-begin-hitting-web/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 04:50:42 PM
“We intend to be leaders in this disruptive technology.”

Ontario opens its roads to self-driving car testing
http://electrek.co/2015/10/15/ontario-opens-its-roads-to-self-driving-car-testing-google-tesla-obvious-candidates/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/15/ontario-opens-its-roads-to-self-driving-car-testing-google-tesla-obvious-candidates/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 05:32:35 PM
VW Will Recall 8.5 Million Rigged Diesels After German Hard Line
Volkswagen AG will embark on one of the biggest recalls in European automotive history, affecting 8.5 million vehicles, after German authorities threw out the carmaker’s proposal for voluntary repairs.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-15/vw-faces-mandatory-recall-in-germany-over-diesel-cheating (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-15/vw-faces-mandatory-recall-in-germany-over-diesel-cheating)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 06:09:01 PM
Russia takes the egg-before-chicken approach, developing charging infrastructure while EVs are still scarce.

Public chargers going online in Moscow, nationwide network planned
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/public-chargers-going-online-in-moscow-nationwide-network-planned/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 15, 2015, 06:28:00 PM
Not because it is new or improved....

Why is Ford suddenly advertising its Focus Electric after 3 years?
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/why-is-ford-suddenly-advertising-its-focus-electric-after-3-years/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 16, 2015, 02:12:59 AM
Toyota to Phase Out Gas-Powered Vehicles, Doubling Down on Hydrogen
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/toyota-phase-out-gas-powered-vehicles-doubling-down-hydrogen-n444406 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/toyota-phase-out-gas-powered-vehicles-doubling-down-hydrogen-n444406)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2015, 02:26:42 AM
Tesla CTO: We’ve shifted core focus to Model 3, majority of employees now working on mass production of $35,000 vehicle
http://electrek.co/2015/10/16/tesla-cto-weve-shifted-core-focus-to-model-3-majority-of-employees-now-working-on-mass-production-of-35000-vehicle/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/16/tesla-cto-weve-shifted-core-focus-to-model-3-majority-of-employees-now-working-on-mass-production-of-35000-vehicle/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2015, 03:52:01 AM
More problems with VWs:  Previously undisclosed software "apparently serves to warm up some portion of the exhaust emission treatment system, a function that must be disclosed to the EPA so it can be evaluated and, if necessary, tested."

EPA: 'Long List' Of Questions On New VW Diesel Software Feature
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100459_epa-long-list-of-questions-on-new-vw-diesel-software-feature (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100459_epa-long-list-of-questions-on-new-vw-diesel-software-feature)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: silkman on October 17, 2015, 09:42:03 AM
Dodgy dealing at Porsche too it seems:

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article4588545.ece (http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/environment/article4588545.ece)

The full Times article is behind a pay wall but the gist is that Porsche secretly put a software delay into the throttle system at 30mph to ensure that the cars met noise pollution requirements.

The result, according to the anedotal reporting in the article, was a 2.5 second delay to the car's acceleration on overtaking from 30mph, causing a risk of collision and, clearly, enormous loss of face for the purchaser of a £50k vehicle who paid the price precisely to perform this sort of manoeuvre.

Another example of industrial arrogance in the face of environmental legislation it seems and more damage to the reputation of VW.

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 17, 2015, 11:33:17 PM
VW Diesel Acceleration, Fuel Economy Fall Without 'Cheat Mode'
Consumer Reports figured out how to keep a pair of Volkswagen Jetta TDI models in their "emission-test mode" while the cars were being driven on the road, to determine how the cars might perform without "cheat mode."
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100425_vw-diesel-acceleration-fuel-economy-fall-without-cheat-mode-video (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100425_vw-diesel-acceleration-fuel-economy-fall-without-cheat-mode-video)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2015, 04:59:50 PM
France Expands Electric-Car Bonus To Scrap 10-Year-Old Diesel Cars
Efforts to limit the number of diesel cars on French roads a represent a reversal of a decades-long policy of encouraging them.

In the 1960s, the French government and auto industry made the decision to move to diesel because of its superior fuel economy.

Now, France is paying for that choice in the form of high levels harmful particulate matter and other pollutants from diesel exhaust.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100428_france-expands-electric-car-bonus-to-scrap-10-year-old-diesel-cars (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100428_france-expands-electric-car-bonus-to-scrap-10-year-old-diesel-cars)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2015, 05:05:41 PM
China proposes “game-changing” goals for EV charging infrastructure
The Chinese government has proposed an ambitious plan to improve the country’s EV charging infrastructure. The new strategy, announced in September by the State Council, envisions a charging infrastructure capable of supporting up to 5 million EVs by 2020.

Market analysis firm CCM estimates that the program, which calls for 12,000 public charging stations and 4.5 million charging points, will require an investment of up to 120 billion renminbi ($19 billion), and calls it a “game-changer” for the country’s EV market.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/china-proposes-game-changing-goals-for-ev-charging-infrastructure/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 19, 2015, 09:47:50 PM
The Bavarian Police is now using all-electric BMW i3’s as police vehicles [Picture Gallery]
http://electrek.co/2015/10/19/the-bavarian-police-is-now-using-all-electric-bmw-i3s-as-police-vehicles-picture-gallery/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/19/the-bavarian-police-is-now-using-all-electric-bmw-i3s-as-police-vehicles-picture-gallery/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on October 22, 2015, 12:31:28 AM
Coincidentally, I came across this article: (http://www.consumerreports.org/cars/tesla-reliability-doesnt-match-its-high-performance)

Tesla Reliability Doesn’t Match Its High Performance

Tesla Motors’ all-electric Model S sedan got high marks in Consumer Reports’ 50-plus tests involving driving dynamics and livability, and it consumed energy at the electric equivalent of 84 miles per gallon (87 MPGe in the P85D trim). It’s the best-performing car we’ve ever tested.

But its predicted reliability is another matter.

As part of our Annual Auto Reliability Survey, we received about 1,400 survey responses from Model S owners who chronicled an array of detailed and complicated maladies. From that data we forecast that owning that Tesla is likely to involve a worse-than-average overall problem rate. That’s a step down from last year’s “average” prediction for the Model S. It also means the Model S does not receive Consumer Reports’ recommended designation. (To be recommended, a vehicle has to meet stringent testing, reliability, and safety standards, including having average or better predicted reliability.)

The main problem areas involved the drivetrain, power equipment, charging equipment, giant iPad-like center console, and body and sunroof squeaks, rattles, and leaks.

Specific areas that scored worse on the 2015 model, compared with the 2014 model in last year’s survey, were the climate control, steering, and suspension systems. Complaints about the drive system have also increased as the cars have aged—specifically for the 2013 model, which was the car’s first full model year. (See more details on the Tesla Model S model page.)

But those problems mostly still fall under Tesla’s four-year/50,000-mile bumper-to-bumper warranty (and eight-year/unlimited mileage battery and drivetrain warranty), so they are generally being corrected at no cost to owners.
This is what I mean when I say I don't like those hyper-high-tech EVs. There's simply too much risk of planned obsolescence built in. An EV only makes sense if it's simple and sturdy and long-living. Otherwise it's just like a printer, built to break. And that kind of corporate thinking is a huge part of the predicament.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2015, 01:30:34 AM
Yes, complexity means more things that can go wrong.  But the Tesla is a new design, from a new company.  Their new patents are ushering in updated technology for a new era.  Given that they are not playing it safe by using existing technology, I think a "break-in"/learning period is to be expected, and doesn't mean the product was designed to fail.

These early Tesla owners know the car is on the leading edge -- and Tesla knows it must be ready to respond to problems.  This doesn't feel like "planned obsolescence" to me:
Consumer Reports also found that customers rate Tesla service and loyalty as the best in the world. Close communication with our customers enables Tesla to receive input, proactively address issues, and quickly fix problems. Over-the-air software updates allow Tesla to diagnose and fix most bugs without the need to come in for service. In instances when hardware needs to be fixed, we strive to make it painless.

Despite the problems, our data show that Tesla owner satisfaction is still very high: Ninety-seven percent of owners said they would definitely buy their car again.

Neven, I can see you value simplicity and dependability.  :)  EVs will get there!  But the first of anything has the toughest job -- and the most to prove.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on October 22, 2015, 01:35:51 AM
Yes, that's also true. There's just a lot of stuff that can break in this luxurious versions. Hopefully the Model S will have to be so price-competitive that they leave out a lot of the unnecessary Schnickschnack (https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Schnickschnack).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2015, 02:05:07 AM
Oh, and here's another point:
@elonmusk: Consumer Reports reliability survey includes a lot of early production cars. Already addressed in new cars.

@bonnienorman: @elonmusk Many owners have bought a 2nd & then 3rd Tesla--it's clear reliability improved. Customers vote with dollars :)

@elonmusk: Tesla gets top rating of any company in service. Most important, CR says 97% of owners expect their next car to be a Tesla (the acid test).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 22, 2015, 03:08:39 AM
How Could Volkswagen’s Top Engineers Not Have Known?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/how-could-volkswagen-s-top-engineers-not-have-known- (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-21/how-could-volkswagen-s-top-engineers-not-have-known-)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on October 22, 2015, 11:33:01 AM
World Solar Challenge: Dutch university Delft wins race in Australia
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34600540 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-34600540)
A team from Delft University in the Netherlands has won a solar car race in the Australian outback.

The university's Nuon Solar Team was the first to arrive at the finish line in Adelaide. The 3,000km (1,800 mile) race took four days to complete.

The race, which happens once every two years, started on Sunday in Darwin.

Nearly 50 teams from universities and schools around the world took part. Delft University had also won the last challenge in 2013.

The World Solar Challenge is aimed at promoting research on solar-powered cars which could become a consumer product one day.

See also for more photos : http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2015/oct/22/world-solar-challenge-australian-electric-car-race-charges-ahead-in-pictures (http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/gallery/2015/oct/22/world-solar-challenge-australian-electric-car-race-charges-ahead-in-pictures)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on October 22, 2015, 11:42:38 AM
What I learnt from a month cycling in the Netherlands
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2015/oct/22/what-i-learnt-from-a-month-cycling-in-the-netherlands (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/bike-blog/2015/oct/22/what-i-learnt-from-a-month-cycling-in-the-netherlands)

Thought it is about bicycles, there is a lesson for cars...I do think it is very important :
Another important factor contributing towards the safety enjoyed by Dutch cyclists, is the country’s strict liability laws – in a collision between a faster, larger vehicle and a slower, more vulnerable one, the former is found liable by default, unless its driver can prove otherwise. Those on foot are protected from cyclists and both are protected from motor vehicles. You can sense the respect drivers of motor vehicles give cyclists, and in a month I experienced none of the near misses, or aggressive driving that are almost a daily occurrence in London.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 01:28:07 PM
Elon Musk says Tesla will have production capacity in China within 2 years. The timeline matches the company’s planned release of its mass volume $35,000 car, the Model 3.
http://electrek.co/2015/10/23/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-have-a-factory-in-china-within-2-years-to-satisfy-local-demand-for-the-model-3/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/23/elon-musk-says-tesla-will-have-a-factory-in-china-within-2-years-to-satisfy-local-demand-for-the-model-3/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 23, 2015, 09:52:41 PM
U.K. survey:  81 percent of 14-year-olds said they plan to make the first car they buy an electric car.  The survey respondents also felt that lowering carbon emissions should be an important consideration in vehicle purchases.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100611_younger-car-buyers-in-u-k-want-electric-cars-far-more-than-older (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100611_younger-car-buyers-in-u-k-want-electric-cars-far-more-than-older)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 02:13:37 AM
Tesla argues the auto lobby effectively delayed fuel economy improvements in the U.S. by about 20 years; says current clean car volume requirements in California should be quadrupled.
http://electrek.co/2015/10/23/tesla-argues-the-auto-lobby-effectively-delayed-fuel-economy-improvements-in-the-u-s-by-about-20-years/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/23/tesla-argues-the-auto-lobby-effectively-delayed-fuel-economy-improvements-in-the-u-s-by-about-20-years/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 12:37:58 PM
Volkswagen Diesel Car Scandal Causing Surge In EV Interest, According To British Car Leasing Company
We’ve seen enquiries for electric cars go through the roof in recent weeks,” stated Flexed.co.uk representative Mark Hall, “Petrol and diesel cars just aren’t getting a look in.”

Interestingly, the surge seems to pertain mostly to pure all-electric vehicles rather than to plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). PHEVs have reportedly remained largely unchanged.

“There seems to be a wave of disgust at Volkwagen over the emissions scandal, and it’s driving customers away from petrol, diesel, and hybrid cars, no matter what the make.”
http://evobsession.com/volkswagen-diesel-car-scandal-causing-surge-in-ev-interest-according-to-british-car-leasing-company/ (http://evobsession.com/volkswagen-diesel-car-scandal-causing-surge-in-ev-interest-according-to-british-car-leasing-company/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 12:51:21 PM
In California, Electric Cars Outpace Plugs, and Sparks Fly -- but They Shouldn’t
http://www.evconnect.com/ev-connect-blog/in-california-electric-cars-outpace-plugs-and-sparks-fly/ (http://www.evconnect.com/ev-connect-blog/in-california-electric-cars-outpace-plugs-and-sparks-fly/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 24, 2015, 01:42:20 PM
Volvo to produce an EV by 2019
“We believe that the time has come for electrified cars to cease being a niche technology and enter the mainstream,” said Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson. “We are confident that in two years’ time, 10 percent of Volvo’s global sales will be electrified cars.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/volvo-to-produce-an-ev-by-2019/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2015, 04:47:43 PM
Reducing delivery truck mileage?
Amazon, Google, and now Walmart foresee using small drones to deliver packages to customers.

"Drones have a lot of potential to further connect our vast network of stores, distribution centers, fulfillment centers and transportation fleet," he said. "There is a Walmart within five miles of 70 percent of the U.S. population, which creates some unique and interesting possibilities for serving customers with drones."
Article and video:
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/wal-mart-seeks-test-drones-home-delivery-pickup-n451746 (http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/wal-mart-seeks-test-drones-home-delivery-pickup-n451746)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 27, 2015, 08:56:07 PM
Cars To Vanish From Downtown Oslo Before 2020
Norway's capital, Oslo, may ban most people from driving their cars--electric or otherwise--into the city center by 2020, according to The Independent (via Autoblog).

"We want to have a car-free center," Lan Marie Nguyen Berg, the lead negotiator for the Norwegian Green Party in Oslo, told reporters last week.

The plan is reportedly endorsed by all three of the political parties that make up Oslo's city council: the Green Party, the Labor Party, and the Socialist Left.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100628_cars-to-vanish-from-downtown-oslo-before-2020?fbfanpage (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100628_cars-to-vanish-from-downtown-oslo-before-2020?fbfanpage)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2015, 05:29:16 PM
The Autopilot is learning fast: Model S owners are already reporting that Tesla’s Autopilot is self-improving.
http://electrek.co/2015/10/30/the-autopilot-is-learning-fast-model-s-owners-are-already-reporting-that-teslas-autopilot-is-self-improving/ (http://electrek.co/2015/10/30/the-autopilot-is-learning-fast-model-s-owners-are-already-reporting-that-teslas-autopilot-is-self-improving/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 30, 2015, 11:59:06 PM
EU Regulators Dilute New Emission Rules To Allow 2.1 Times The Legal Limits Until 2020
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100703_eu-regulators-dilute-new-emission-rules-to-allow-2-1-times-the-legal-limits-until-2020 (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100703_eu-regulators-dilute-new-emission-rules-to-allow-2-1-times-the-legal-limits-until-2020)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on October 31, 2015, 12:24:59 AM
Volkswagen's Excess Emissions Will Kill 59 Americans: Study
An MIT and Harvard study is the first peer-reviewed estimate of the health impacts of Volkswagen's faulty software code.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/volkswagen-s-excess-emissions-will-kill-59-americans-study (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-30/volkswagen-s-excess-emissions-will-kill-59-americans-study)

Image:  "Where VW's Pollution Is Worst" [in the U.S. -- in Europe it is much worse.]
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 02, 2015, 09:57:23 PM
EPA says:  VW Diesel V-6 Engines Used By Audi, Porsche Have Cheat Software Too
The vehicles affected are the 2014 Volkswagen Touareg TDI, the 2015 Porsche Cayenne Diesel, and five 2016 Audi models: The A6, A8, and A8L TDI sedans; the A7 TDI hatchback; and the Q5 TDI sport utility vehicle.

About 10,000 diesel luxury vehicles from the 2014 through 2016 model years are affected, according to the EPA and the California Air Resources Board, which also took part in the announcement.
...
Unsold 2015 and 2016 vehicles will likely be subject to an immediate stop-sale order, meaning that dealerships will have to take both new and used models off sale until a fix can be developed, tested, approved, and installed--a process that could take many months.

Additional fines--beyond those due for the 482,000 diesel vehicles with the 2.0-liter TDI diesel engine that was identified six weeks ago--could total as much as $375 million.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100717_vw-diesel-v-6-engines-used-by-audi-porsche-have-cheat-software-too-epa (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100717_vw-diesel-v-6-engines-used-by-audi-porsche-have-cheat-software-too-epa)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on November 02, 2015, 10:27:16 PM
Volkswagen's Excess Emissions Will Kill 59 Americans:

But their FAQ page says it's perfectly safe to keep driving them.  ???

(unless you have an impaired respiratory system...)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 01:57:16 AM
Miles Driven In U.S. Hits New All-Time High; Gasoline Used Doesn't
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100724_miles-driven-in-u-s-hits-new-all-time-high-gasoline-used-doesnt (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100724_miles-driven-in-u-s-hits-new-all-time-high-gasoline-used-doesnt)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on November 03, 2015, 07:12:06 AM
A survey published earlier this year found that the average age of a car on U.S. roads is a record-high 11.5 years.

That surprised me a little. Thought it would be lower.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 12:39:43 PM
A survey published earlier this year found that the average age of a car on U.S. roads is a record-high 11.5 years.

That surprised me a little. Thought it would be lower.

I like to think that people are waiting for the next generation of EVs, due in the next couple of years.
Of course, that's just me.  Maybe.  But we can hope.   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 03, 2015, 12:41:03 PM
European Interoperability Centre aims to harmonize US and EU EV standards
Interoperability will not only allow for communication among plug-in vehicles, their recharging hardware and the smart grid, but should also enable features such as automatic billing, EV roaming and more efficient energy management.

The new facility consists of four labs focused on vehicle energy efficiency; the interoperability of smart grids; electromagnetic compatibility; and battery testing.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/european-interoperability-centre-aims-to-harmonize-us-and-eu-ev-standards/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2015, 01:20:27 AM
Tesla Motors (TSLA) Elon Reeve Musk on Q3 2015 Results - Earnings Call Transcript
We like looking at all of our critical path items ... with an eye towards Model 3 and making sure that Model 3 happens as soon as humanly possible....
...
...we changed the goal of the drive unit endurance from being approximately 200,000 miles to being 1 million miles. Just basically we want drive units that just never wear out. That's our goal. And I think we've made really good progress in that direction.
...
...it's worth noting that it's 2015. In 2010, Tesla was delivering 500 cars per year. We now deliver 500 cars in just over two days.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3642146-tesla-motors-tsla-elon-reeve-musk-on-q3-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3642146-tesla-motors-tsla-elon-reeve-musk-on-q3-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2015, 02:05:23 AM
As noted in #648 above, EPA found an additional 800,000 higher-priced, V-6 VW cars with emission problems, making another $2.2 billion of risk.

VW's response evolves:
First, they denied that that any emission-related software in those engines had been used "in a forbidden manner."
But later:  "The Supervisory Board is deeply concerned by the discovery of irregularities found when determining CO2 levels for the type approval of Volkswagen Group vehicles."

More VW Emission 'Irregularities' As Investors Question Confrontation With EPA
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100756_more-vw-emission-irregularities-as-investors-question-confrontation-with-epa?fbfanpage (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100756_more-vw-emission-irregularities-as-investors-question-confrontation-with-epa?fbfanpage)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on November 06, 2015, 01:38:53 AM
I stumbled upon what might be the latest fleet average NOx numbers Environment Canada has. Several things stand out as unfortunate to me. First the numbers are so old. They were released in 2014 but are for the 2011 model year. Next the numbers are "as provided by the manufacturers" - like that makes them reliable. Also many of the numbers provided are very obviously fake. The Canadian standard was .07 grams/mile for light duty vehicles. Many of the reported numbers seem plausible. For example GM reports 0.0622566g/mile average. Others though are pretty obviously fabrications. For example VW reports  0.070000 (exactly the standard to 6 decimals)

This is the report:
http://ec.gc.ca/lcpe-cepa/default.asp?lang=En&n=1470AC04-1 (http://ec.gc.ca/lcpe-cepa/default.asp?lang=En&n=1470AC04-1)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2015, 03:45:51 PM
Tesla likely working on an autonomous ride-sharing scheme but hasn’t decided on implementation
http://electrek.co/2015/11/06/tesla-likely-working-on-an-autonomous-ride-sharing-scheme-but-hasnt-decided-on-implementation/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/06/tesla-likely-working-on-an-autonomous-ride-sharing-scheme-but-hasnt-decided-on-implementation/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2015, 06:06:48 PM
Why the Silicon Valley car company isn't much interested in the legacy Detroit auto press.

A Polite Note About Tesla To Media Colleagues (Especially In Detroit)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100791_a-polite-note-about-tesla-to-media-colleagues-especially-in-detroit/page-2 (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100791_a-polite-note-about-tesla-to-media-colleagues-especially-in-detroit/page-2)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 07, 2015, 07:54:34 PM
Famed mutual fund manager Ron Baron of Baron Capital is known for his relatively conservative, long-term approach to stock picking.  But he says: We will all drive a Tesla in 25 years.
Baron thinks "all of us will likely be Tesla customers in 25 years" because its competitors are already being compelled to build and sell electric cars. "They do not want to build such cars," Baron wrote. "As a result, they are developing electric expertise so slowly that the lead Tesla has built up through its fast growing staff ... may soon become insurmountable."

He argues that between plant retrofits for engine parts that aren't easy, and union and dealer resistance based on potential loss of jobs and sales, the car companies are their own worse enemies. That he believes will be key to Tesla's continued success.

"Tesla's car culture is far different from that of other car companies," Baron wrote. At least, all car companies except for BMW. Baron noted that two of his analysts recently visited BMW in Germany and the BMW financial team believes that a "revolution in the drive train is underway. ... We believe that BMW will likely phase out internal combustion engines over the next 10 years," Baron wrote.
http://www.cnbc.com/2014/11/06/ative-fund-guru-ron-baron-loves-tesla.html (http://www.cnbc.com/2014/11/06/ative-fund-guru-ron-baron-loves-tesla.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2015, 03:27:57 PM
There’s One Thing Volkswagen Can Do to Stop the Bleeding:  Beat Tesla.
VW could be a Tesla killer (or at least a respected rival) if it really put its mind to it. It has two big advantages: money and scale. Tesla is spending about $1.7 billion this year to build its business, and Wall Street hates it. Not an earnings call goes by that analysts don’t fume over how much cash the company is burning. But by VW standards, that’s a small price to pay. Volkswagen spent almost 8 times that much on research and development alone last year and has about $30 billion in cash.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/volkswagen-can-only-save-itself-by-beating-tesla (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-06/volkswagen-can-only-save-itself-by-beating-tesla)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: folke_kelm on November 09, 2015, 04:17:59 PM
That will not be easy for VW, because this company has a very strong conservatism in the companys way of thinking. i spoke recently with a member of VW´s engine development staff about this issue an he said, that electric cars are sort of no go for the company. Tesla is never named in any meeting.
That is like putting your head in the sand. There is no place for creative thinking in these companies and therefore it will be very difficult to leave the old ways of building cars.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 11, 2015, 03:58:49 PM
Today's "Indianapolis 500" are electric car drivers.   ;) :)

Over 500 people signed up for BlueIndy, Indianapolis’ all-electric car sharing program
http://electrek.co/2015/11/11/over-500-people-signed-up-for-blueindy-indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/11/over-500-people-signed-up-for-blueindy-indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program/)

More details on the program:
Indianapolis’ all-electric car sharing program, BlueIndy, officially launches today
http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program-blueindy-officially-launches-today/ (http://electrek.co/2015/09/02/indianapolis-all-electric-car-sharing-program-blueindy-officially-launches-today/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 12, 2015, 02:37:14 PM
Proterra electric buses to add Mobileye collision avoidance system
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/proterra-electric-buses-to-add-mobileye-collision-avoidance-system/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on November 13, 2015, 08:17:05 PM
And yet another independent report showing electric vehicles much more carbon efficient compared to fossil fueled vehicles.

https://transportevolved.com/2015/11/12/union-of-concerned-scientists-proves-cradle-to-grave-emissions-better-for-evs-than-gasoline-in-every-u-s-state/ (https://transportevolved.com/2015/11/12/union-of-concerned-scientists-proves-cradle-to-grave-emissions-better-for-evs-than-gasoline-in-every-u-s-state/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 15, 2015, 06:58:23 PM
Did you know:  of the global CO2 emissions from the transport sector, over half are from urban passengers and freight?  All that obsessing about "non-walkable suburbs" being the problem apparently misses the mark. 
   Another factor is that big transportation systems (such as subways) are built for up to 100-year life-spans, whereas car life-spans are more like 10 years, so new technology can be introduced more quickly (in developed countries).

The transport sector represents around 30 percent of global CO2 emissions, with urban transportation comprising more than half of this amount. This is the type of greenhouse gas emissions “that is expected to grow the fastest in business-as-usual scenarios, increasing at an annual rate of 2–3 percent”....
...the additional time needed for a well-established technology in developed countries to penetrate the market in developing countries is around 10 years. Consequently, according to some estimates a new “green” car, launched today in the developed world, will take 40 to 45 years to reach a significant share of the market in poor countries....
http://uccrn.org/files/2014/02/ARC3-Chapter-6.pdf (http://uccrn.org/files/2014/02/ARC3-Chapter-6.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 15, 2015, 07:11:22 PM
@TeslaOwnerBlog: Somewhat reasonable article about slower charging stations getting busy https://t.co/teMxcVBcyn (https://t.co/teMxcVBcyn)

https://twitter.com/teslaownerblog/status/664821302075625472 (https://twitter.com/teslaownerblog/status/664821302075625472)
Need an EV battery fill-up? At many charging stations, get in line.
http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_29082989/need-an-ev-battery-fill-up-at-many (http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_29082989/need-an-ev-battery-fill-up-at-many)


 ;D
@heronlinedk: @TeslaOwnerBlog todays smile [photo:]  https://t.co/Wi7hALEIXE (https://t.co/Wi7hALEIXE)

https://twitter.com/heronlinedk/status/665251177991421952 (https://twitter.com/heronlinedk/status/665251177991421952)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on November 15, 2015, 08:10:23 PM
"over half are from urban passengers and freight"

I'm pretty sure they don't exclude suburban trips here. This is 'urban' as opposed to rural.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2015, 03:13:44 AM
"over half are from urban passengers and freight"

I'm pretty sure they don't exclude suburban trips here. This is 'urban' as opposed to rural.

Good thought.  I don't see anything that specifically describes what they mean by "urban."  But they do refer to "cities," and they differentiate "suburban" areas once or twice:

Stone et al. (2007, p. 404) “found the densification of urban zones to be more than twice as effective in reducing vehicle miles of travel emissions as the densification of suburban zones, suggesting compact growth to be better for air quality” in the United States. The study finds densification of urban zones to be more than twice as effective in reducing vehicle miles of travel and emissions as the densification of suburban zones, suggesting compact growth to be better for air quality than historical patterns of growth in most cities of the United States.

I guess I don't see how rural transport, alone, could account for almost as much transport emissions as urban and suburban combined....  :-\

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on November 16, 2015, 04:32:53 AM
I agree that this terminology is vague. I hadn't seen the specific references to 'suburban' travel. But that might just be referring to the terminology in that one study. Who knows?

Anyway, what you have to remember about 'rural' or perhaps better 'extra-urban' travel is that it includes all the stuff being transported on the interstate 24/7. I imagine that is quite a good chunk of total CO2 produced from travel in the US, especially given the numbers of semis and other large trucks involved.

Did you happen to see anything on air transport in there?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 16, 2015, 10:31:19 PM
Apparently air travel is not considered an Urban Transportation System.
This is all I find:
Further, transportation is expressed in terms of modes of travel, which are categorized broadly as occurring by land, air, and water. Within that broad categoriza- tion, transportation modes may also be classified in terms of the physical infrastructure that is used and include those that use rail, road, ships, and airplanes, each of which can be subdivided further. Land-based transportation systems are generally those with the highest usage in urban regions, and can be divided into rail- and road-based systems. According to Kahn-Ribeiro et al. (2007, p. 328), “road vehicles account for more than three-quarters” of total transport energy use and thus associated greenhouse gas emissions.
The other references are to the risks of airport infrastructure damage by flooding and such.  Really nothing on air travel in this chapter.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 17, 2015, 12:44:58 PM
This time, it's engines powered by gasoline, not diesel.  Includes Jetta and Passat.

VW Finds More Gas-Powered Engines Cheated on CO2 Emissions
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/vw-finds-more-gas-powered-engines-cheated-co2-emissions-n464351 (http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/vw-finds-more-gas-powered-engines-cheated-co2-emissions-n464351)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 17, 2015, 02:57:34 PM
Pollution from a non-stop transatlantic round trip averages around one tonne of CO2 per passenger, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) research found – the same as would be clocked up in a year by commuting 22 miles to work daily in a Toyota Prius.
Large variation found in airlines' CO2 emissions
Lufthansa and BA two thirds as fuel efficient as Norwegian Air Shuttle, says report by group that exposed VW emissions-rigging scandal.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/16/large-variation-found-in-airlines-co2-emissions (http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/nov/16/large-variation-found-in-airlines-co2-emissions)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 17, 2015, 09:03:59 PM
When Will We Start To See 'Tailpipes' On Cars As Morally Wrong?
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101015_when-will-we-start-to-see-tailpipes-on-cars-as-morally-wrong (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101015_when-will-we-start-to-see-tailpipes-on-cars-as-morally-wrong)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 02:51:34 PM
The electric driving revolution isn’t impossible or likely, it’s inevitable – Audi President of America
Yesterday, Audi of America President Scott Keogh held a presentation at the LA Auto Show and he made some interesting comments about the brand’s effort in the electric vehicle space and the future of EVs in general.

Keogh said he expects Audi’s e-tron models, all-electric and plug-in hybrid drivetrains, will represent 25% of all the company’s sales over the next decade.
...
Keogh reiterated Audi’s commitment to developing a nationwide 150 kW charging network with ‘Charging Interface Initiative’ under the Combined Charging Systems (CCS) standard.
...
Audi aims at bringing the [Audi etron] to production in “early 2018” with a massive 95 kWh battery pack [and a range of up to 300 miles].
http://electrek.co/2015/11/19/the-electric-driving-revolution-isnt-impossible-or-likely-its-inevitable-audi-president-of-america/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/19/the-electric-driving-revolution-isnt-impossible-or-likely-its-inevitable-audi-president-of-america/)

The CCS system uses a charging plug different from the CHAdeMO used by Toyota, Nissan, and Mitsubishi.  The global standard is yet to be determined.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 02:52:07 PM
Jaguar!   8)

Jaguar is reportedly planning to launch a 300-mile all-electric SUV in 2017
http://electrek.co/2015/11/16/jaguar-is-reportedly-planning-to-launch-a-300-mile-all-electric-suv-in-2017/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/16/jaguar-is-reportedly-planning-to-launch-a-300-mile-all-electric-suv-in-2017/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 19, 2015, 02:59:51 PM
BMW will install 500 DC fast charging stations across 25 U.S. markets in partnership with EVgo
http://electrek.co/2015/11/18/bmw-will-install-500-dc-fast-charging-stations-across-25-u-s-markets-in-partnership-with-evgo/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/18/bmw-will-install-500-dc-fast-charging-stations-across-25-u-s-markets-in-partnership-with-evgo/)


It should be noted that as BMW is a CCS (Combo) partner, this unit uses a SAE Combo 1 Inlet.  This new unit should go a long way in aided the newer standard make a dent in the CHAdeMO dominated landscape.  GM, Ford, Chrysler, Daimler, Volkswagen, Audi and Porsche have also signed on to the new standard.
http://insideevs.com/bmw-launches-new-low-cost-dc-fast-chargers-6458/ (http://insideevs.com/bmw-launches-new-low-cost-dc-fast-chargers-6458/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on November 19, 2015, 10:16:55 PM
Wow, I just watched a video (http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6697599/1c37a41f/dumpert_how_it_s_made.html) showing how the Tesla Model S is constructed. On the one hand very cool, of course, but what complexity. I'm not sure I want an EV anymore.

God, give me the strength to live without a car.  ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 02:35:41 PM
Wow, I just watched a video (http://www.dumpert.nl/mediabase/6697599/1c37a41f/dumpert_how_it_s_made.html) showing how the Tesla Model S is constructed. On the one hand very cool, of course, but what complexity. I'm not sure I want an EV anymore.

God, give me the strength to live without a car.  ;)

Good luck with that!  ;D

Maybe greater complexity leads to the ultimate simplicity?  You won't need to own a car; just summon an on-demand vehicle, get in, and tell it where to go.  Looks like this will happen much sooner than the pundits were saying only a few months ago.  (Elon Musk has been unusually cagey about discussing it on the last couple Tesla Quarterly Report conference calls.)

Tesla is looking for “hardcore” software engineers to bring the Autopilot to full autonomy
http://electrek.co/2015/11/19/tesla-is-looking-for-hardcore-software-engineers-to-bring-the-autopilot-to-full-autonomy/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/19/tesla-is-looking-for-hardcore-software-engineers-to-bring-the-autopilot-to-full-autonomy/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on November 20, 2015, 04:57:39 PM
Yes, there are complex elements to a high end EV.

But there are still many fewer moving parts. No carburetor, pistons, fuel injection, spark plugs...

Let's not forget the ICE cars, even cheap ones, are pretty darn complex pieces of machinery with plenty of points to go wrong.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 05:33:52 PM
Microsoft, Volvo Strike Deal to Make Driverless Cars
Like many auto companies, Volvo is keen to develop autonomous vehicles. This week, the automaker unveiled Concept 26, a model of a driverless car's interior.

"Autonomous driving is at the center of Volvo' strategy and future," Annwall said.
http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/microsoft-volvo-strike-deal-make-driverless-cars-n466946 (http://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/microsoft-volvo-strike-deal-make-driverless-cars-n466946)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 06:18:31 PM
Yes, there are complex elements to a high end EV.

But there are still many fewer moving parts. No carburetor, pistons, fuel injection, spark plugs...

Let's not forget the ICE cars, even cheap ones, are pretty darn complex pieces of machinery with plenty of points to go wrong.

Excellent points!  EVs simplify the main function of a vehicle -- changing energy into motion.  The rest of it is smart phone vs. flip phone arguments. (Although I must admit, in reading the Nissan LEAF owners' forum, that trouble with its run-of-the-mill 12-volt battery can lead to a surprising number and kind of problems. :o  Gotta work on that.)

EVs have fewer moving parts
Electric vehicles are very simplistic. The propulsion system in an ICE vehicle has hundreds of moving parts. An electric vehicle's propulsion system has but one: the electric motor. In addition to reducing maintenance costs and saving on lubricants and oils, the reduction in friction losses contributes to the energy efficiency of electric vehicles.

Electric vehicles are very energy efficient. For every 100 units of fuel that are expended in an ICE vehicle, only 16 actually result in propulsion. An electric vehicle, however, will use almost 85 units out of 100 for driving the vehicle.
http://www.utc.edu/college-engineering-computer-science/research-centers/cete/electric.php (http://www.utc.edu/college-engineering-computer-science/research-centers/cete/electric.php)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 20, 2015, 07:09:23 PM
Back in the slow lane....

Tesla Motors Autopilot Hits Turbulence As Hong Kong Officials Order Driver Assistance Software Removed From Model S
http://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-motors-autopilot-hits-turbulence-hong-kong-officials-order-driver-assistance-2192392 (http://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-motors-autopilot-hits-turbulence-hong-kong-officials-order-driver-assistance-2192392)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 21, 2015, 01:35:58 PM
EPA Proposes To Cut Ethanol Requirement For Gasoline
The Renewable Fuel Standard was originally seen as a way to reduce dependence on foreign oil and cut carbon emissions, by encouraging use of a fuel that could be produced domestically from renewable sources.

But setting requirements for fixed amounts of ethanol to be blended with gasoline did not account for changes in overall fuel consumption.

The fuel efficiency of new cars and trucks sold in the U.S. has increased appreciably since 2007--meaning drivers are using less fuel--largely due to increasingly stringent Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards starting in 2012.

The deep economic recession that started in 2008 and lasted several years also reduced work-related commuting as jobs were lost.

Yet the ethanol requirement didn't change to reflect this, because the rule only considers ethanol in terms of volume, not as a percentage of overall fuel consumed.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101082_epa-proposes-to-cut-ethanol-requirement-for-gasoline?fbfanpage (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101082_epa-proposes-to-cut-ethanol-requirement-for-gasoline?fbfanpage)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on November 21, 2015, 01:59:16 PM
Yes, there are complex elements to a high end EV.

But there are still many fewer moving parts. No carburetor, pistons, fuel injection, spark plugs...

Let's not forget the ICE cars, even cheap ones, are pretty darn complex pieces of machinery with plenty of points to go wrong.

EV engines are definitely better than ICE. This really sank in when I had my electric lawnmower repaired (which is ultra-simple) and saw what a mess gasoline lawnmower engines were in the repair shop, so dirty and so many moving parts.

I figured it'd be the same for cars, but I'm in doubt now after watching that Tesla How It's Made video. Such a thing can simply never be sustainable. Not only the car (which looks more like a laptop on wheels than a car to me), but also the production process is incredibly vulnerable and non-resilient.

I hope to buy 1-2 electric bikes soon (much simpler and more repairable), and then hopefully we can keep our CNG-powered car and only use it for large distances (saving a lot of money on insurance etc).
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 21, 2015, 04:11:47 PM
I found a (small-screen) copy of the How It's Made - Tesla Model S on YouTube:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOriitPjlcw

Fascinating -- although I know that show explains the manufacturing of pencils and flashlights in similarly detailed fashion!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on November 21, 2015, 08:00:21 PM
Yes, there are complex elements to a high end EV.

But there are still many fewer moving parts. No carburetor, pistons, fuel injection, spark plugs...

Let's not forget the ICE cars, even cheap ones, are pretty darn complex pieces of machinery with plenty of points to go wrong.

EV engines are definitely better than ICE. This really sank in when I had my electric lawnmower repaired (which is ultra-simple) and saw what a mess gasoline lawnmower engines were in the repair shop, so dirty and so many moving parts.

I figured it'd be the same for cars, but I'm in doubt now after watching that Tesla How It's Made video. Such a thing can simply never be sustainable. Not only the car (which looks more like a laptop on wheels than a car to me), but also the production process is incredibly vulnerable and non-resilient.

I hope to buy 1-2 electric bikes soon (much simpler and more repairable), and then hopefully we can keep our CNG-powered car and only use it for large distances (saving a lot of money on insurance etc).

The motor is far simpler.
Many things that make up an ICE, or CNG, or electric vehicle are the same.
Safety equipment, suspension, brakes, doors, etc.

We will stick with our EV for long ranges.  We will not have any CO emitting devices in our attached garage or house.
I really do need to bike more though, I'll work on that next year :D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: OrganicSu on November 22, 2015, 11:55:54 AM
Cars, Trucks and let's not forget … Motorbikes

Intro: 6 weeks ago I had stones delivered. The tractor left a blob of dirty oil behind. I scooped up the earth, in disgust. I know it goes to landfill but not on my land. Please excuse me. I saw another blob and said I leave it until I sort out my own combustion engines. It grated on my eyes for a week and then I jumped. I changed a 150cc petrol motorbike for a 50cc equivalent electric scooter.  I have it a month.

It had been a plan to go EV for 2 main reasons:
– The climate
- Use some of the surplus power from my off-grid solar system.

I will not go back to combustion engine for different reasons (in priority):
- The silence. I can hear the birds while accelerating out of a corner. How soon before we find the noise of combustion engines morally wrong, not just their tailpipes?
- The acceleration. Scary at first and remains truly pleasurable (even though I went from 150cc to 50cc equivalent).
- The running cost. It costs me 2.24€ for 1000km (3,82$ per 1000 miles) using household electricity (our household electricity is 0.263 €/kWh). The  sample driving was 50% with 2 passengers, 30% up and down steep hills and I was not trying to drive particularly efficiently.

EV are much simpler machines. They will be cheaper to make than combustion engines; It's just a matter of scale and desire. Car, truck and motorbike makers of the world watch out – China is making EV's with superior spec's bar a few notable exceptions. If only they would sell to Greece and elsewhere.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 22, 2015, 03:10:06 PM
This bike lane in Korea is topped with 20 miles of solar panels
http://inhabitat.com/could-this-solar-powered-bike-lane-in-korea-inspire-other-countries-to-add-one/ (http://inhabitat.com/could-this-solar-powered-bike-lane-in-korea-inspire-other-countries-to-add-one/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Tor Bejnar on November 22, 2015, 10:50:23 PM
I wonder how a bicyclist exits from that road?  I wonder if the stretch is lighted at night?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on November 23, 2015, 03:07:55 AM
Don't know for sure, but from some pictures I've found on line, it looks like, where there are overpasses and bridges, there are stairways going down from the side of the bike way.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 23, 2015, 09:39:32 PM
VW's Emissions Fixes Approved for 90% of Cars in Europe
Mueller, who was appointed in the wake of the scandal, said he plans to present an interim report on the status of the investigation in mid-December as the final results will still take several months. Ultimately, he plans to present a new strategy by mid-2016. The goal is to shake up the company’s autocratic structure and re-focus on three topics: digitalization, sustainability and integrity.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/volkswagen-s-emissions-fixes-approved-for-90-of-cars-in-europe (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/volkswagen-s-emissions-fixes-approved-for-90-of-cars-in-europe)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 24, 2015, 02:21:45 PM
Switzerland will have all-electric and fully autonomous buses as soon as next year [Gallery – Video]
The city of Sion in Switzerland approved a pilot project with two all-electric and fully autonomous buses which will hit the road as soon as spring 2016. The project could become the first fully autonomous public transportation system in operation.
http://electrek.co/2015/11/24/switzerland-will-have-all-electric-and-fully-autonomous-buses-as-soon-as-next-year-gallery-video/ (http://electrek.co/2015/11/24/switzerland-will-have-all-electric-and-fully-autonomous-buses-as-soon-as-next-year-gallery-video/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 24, 2015, 05:42:32 PM
On beyond Tesla?  Faraday Future is a secretive car company in California with a notable pedigree.

The California-based EV startup Faraday Future (FF) has presented innovative ideas and assembled a talented team, raiding the ranks of such companies as Tesla, BMW, Audi, Apple, SpaceX, and Hulu. So far however, it has offered few details about its organization or its strategy.

More is sure to be revealed soon. The company will participate in the Consumer Electronics Show in January, and has announced plans to invest a billion bucks in a US factory.

The Verge’s Tamara Warren recently scored a tour of FF’s Los Angeles facility and interviews with senior execs, adding a few brushstrokes to the sketch of this secretive startup.
...
“If I plan my journey, the car should know the places I want to visit along the way, because it knows my preferences,” he continued. “The car should begin to learn my desires, and not just me as owner or user, but the people who are with me. It should be a much more social event to be in the car.”

“Uber is a new way of getting about,” said Sampson. “Some people are considering not even having a car. The cars of the future have got to meet those needs.” He envisions specialized vehicles that can be rented as needed. “I don’t have to buy one compromise vehicle, I can just have use of the perfect model when I need it, like a subscription service.”

Faraday has spoken of building a vehicle by 2017. “We already have a test vehicle running, testing the electrical system, the battery, powertrain. We’re well through the design process for production. We’re already releasing data and information to start having parts made for real vehicles in the future.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/faraday-future-offers-a-peak-under-its-veil/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on November 24, 2015, 06:49:05 PM
I really don't want to be the anti-EV guy over here, but this...

“If I plan my journey, the car should know the places I want to visit along the way, because it knows my preferences,” he continued. “The car should begin to learn my desires, and not just me as owner or user, but the people who are with me. It should be a much more social event to be in the car.”

...it simply makes me nauseous.

The car needs to drive us from A to B as efficiently as possible. It doesn't need to learn our desires! We cannot consume ourselves out of this predicament!

And what's with the names? Tesla... Faraday... What's next? Edison EV? Franklin Fourwheeldrives? NASCAR Newton?  ;D

I want an EV that's as simple as my electric lawnmower, but I think the best thing to do, is try to make my Opel Combo CNG last as long as possible by driving it as little as possible.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on November 25, 2015, 05:16:47 AM
I really don't want to be the anti-EV guy over here, but this...

“If I plan my journey, the car should know the places I want to visit along the way, because it knows my preferences,” he continued. “The car should begin to learn my desires, and not just me as owner or user, but the people who are with me. It should be a much more social event to be in the car.”

...it simply makes me nauseous.

That isn't anti EV.  That is anti tech interface.
Frankly, it makes me a bit nauseous as well.

However, if it gets people in efficient cars that wouldn't otherwise get in efficient cars, more power to the marketing speak.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 25, 2015, 03:53:02 PM
Volkswagen Proposes 2.0-Liter Diesel Fixes As Crisis Continues
The fixes for the German diesels, however, will be far less challenging because EU emission standards are far less stringent than those in effect in the U.S. since 2008.

In a Monday speech at VW headquarters in Wolfsburg, Müller said "the solutions are confirmed" for most of the technical details of the three fixes. He called the costs of the German changes "technically, physically, and financially manageable."

The 2.0-liter engines in Germany will get a software update, while the 1.6-liter TDI four-cylinders will receive not only a software update but a new grille and cartridge for their air-filter system. The 1.2-liter engines are thought to require only a software update.

The challenge in North America, however, is far greater than that of getting EU-market diesels to meet far more lax Euro 5 standards for cars sold through 2014.

It's possible that 325,000 of the 482,000 affected 2.0-liter diesels in the U.S. would need to have a Selective Catalytic Reduction system fitted, which comprises a new catalytic converter, a tank of urea liquid, and associated plumbing to inject the urea into the exhaust aftertreatment system.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100974_volkswagen-proposes-2-0-liter-diesel-fixes-as-crisis-continues (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100974_volkswagen-proposes-2-0-liter-diesel-fixes-as-crisis-continues)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2015, 09:44:08 PM
U.S. Ethanol mandate update.

Final 2016 Ethanol Rule: Fuel Blenders, Biofuels Interests Unhappy With EPA Numbers
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101222_final-2016-ethanol-rule-fuel-blenders-biofuels-interests-unhappy-with-epa-numbers (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101222_final-2016-ethanol-rule-fuel-blenders-biofuels-interests-unhappy-with-epa-numbers)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 02, 2015, 09:52:18 PM
VW Diesel NOx Problem: So Tough Angela Merkel Complained About It (In 2010)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101223_vw-diesel-nox-problem-so-tough-angela-merkel-complained-about-it-in-2010 (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101223_vw-diesel-nox-problem-so-tough-angela-merkel-complained-about-it-in-2010)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on December 03, 2015, 08:05:24 AM
TUNE IT! SAFE! Chevrolet Corvette unveiled at Essen.
http://www.worldcarfans.com/1151130101569/tune-it-safe-chevrolet-corvette-unveiled-at-essen/ (http://www.worldcarfans.com/1151130101569/tune-it-safe-chevrolet-corvette-unveiled-at-essen/)
Sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Transport and the Association of Automobile Tuners
Power is provided by a 6.2-liter V8 engine that develops 459 bhp (466 PS / 343 kW) and 464 lb-ft (630 Nm) of torque.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn-0.motor1.com%2Fp%2Fstatic%2Fimg%2Fmglr%2F600000%2F600000%2F603000%2F603000%2F603099%2Fs8%2Ftune-it-safe-chevrolet-corvette.jpg&hash=db90d897add96b66bf93347409668a94)

Safe? That has different meanings, to different people.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 12:15:39 AM
Japan's Ambitious Hydrogen-Vehicle Plans Stumble, With Bureaucracy To Blame
Regulators are still finalizing criteria after three years of deliberation, which is reportedly undermining local governments' interest in the station.

As many as 100 local governments have put off ordering the Honda Smart Hydrogen Station until Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) implements rules that would accommodate smaller fueling stations.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101239_japans-ambitious-hydrogen-vehicle-plans-stumble-with-bureaucracy-to-blame (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101239_japans-ambitious-hydrogen-vehicle-plans-stumble-with-bureaucracy-to-blame)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 12:22:13 AM
German Regulators Deem VW Diesel Emission Software A 'Defeat Device,' Deepening Crisis
The Volkswagen diesel emission scandal deepened on Tuesday as German regulators ruled that software to evade the use of emission-control systems constituted an illegal "defeat device."
...
Meanwhile, the company said that roughly 50 employees had come forward with information about the emission software and its history, under an offer of amnesty that ended on November 30.
...
In the ten weeks since the scandal broke, CEO Martin Winterkorn and other high executives have resigned, regulatory agencies on multiple continents have opened investigations, civil suits have been filed, and the company has lost billions of dollars of value.

Further investigations into its 3.0-liter V-6 TDI diesel engines have been opened. And VW has admitted it had three separate Auxiliary Emission Control Device software routines in those engines that it had not properly declared to the EPA, one of which qualifies as a "defeat device" too.
...
The KBA's determination underscores the company's vulnerability in markets where it has sold millions of diesel vehicles, not just the 485,000 in question in the U.S.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101176_german-regulators-deem-vw-diesel-emission-software-a-defeat-device-deepening-crisis (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101176_german-regulators-deem-vw-diesel-emission-software-a-defeat-device-deepening-crisis)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 12:36:37 AM
Why Does Volkswagen Want To Face Dieselgate Trials In Detroit?
http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1101227_why-does-volkswagen-want-to-face-dieselgate-trials-in-detroit (http://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1101227_why-does-volkswagen-want-to-face-dieselgate-trials-in-detroit)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on December 04, 2015, 05:21:32 AM
Guess very few cares to much about Sweden since it's such a small country. But since it is often used as an successful nation regarding mitigation, I do feel there's a point mentioning it.

The average age of our cars is 17 years.
November was the best month ever, car sales increased 21% compared to last November. It was also the 23:rd consecutive month of increasing sales.
31352 new cars sold.
172 pure EV's.
Diesel's where just short of 60% (as usual).

http://www.bilsweden.se/publikationer/pressmeddelanden/basta-november-nagonsin-for-personbilar (http://www.bilsweden.se/publikationer/pressmeddelanden/basta-november-nagonsin-for-personbilar)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bilsweden.se%2Fstorage%2Fma%2F561ada62b59e4965864d7092c8fea25b%2F5c83f1fc9e6c49ac97661558154114eb%2F450-293-0-jpg.Jpeg%2F150C50DB222506B456606E4EE28A8B4F337D84A5%2FNov15Bild1.jpeg&hash=0b7283c44aa3745efe8b0c32b17a07cf)

The tax subsidy for E85 ends with 2015 and it will be more expensive than diesel and petrol so sales of new flexifuel cars will drop further, maybe to zero in 2016.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 07:39:09 PM
Porsche!
Porsche announced today the green light for its first all-electric model, the Mission E concept unveiled at the Frankfurt Motor show earlier this year, for production by the end of the decade. The company will invest over $700 million to expand its assembly capacity and include the production of electric motors.
http://electrek.co/2015/12/04/porsche-approves-the-all-electric-mission-e-concept-for-production-gallery/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/04/porsche-approves-the-all-electric-mission-e-concept-for-production-gallery/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 04, 2015, 07:55:38 PM
Germany is the thirteenth government to join the International Zero-Emission Vehicle Alliance, which aims at making all passenger vehicles emission-free by 2050. The group made the announcement Thursday at the UN global climate talks in Paris.

The governments now participating in the ZEV Alliance include the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands and Norway in Europe; California, Connecticut, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont in the United States; and Québec in Canada.
http://electrek.co/2015/12/04/germany-joins-the-international-zero-emission-vehicle-alliance/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/04/germany-joins-the-international-zero-emission-vehicle-alliance/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2015, 01:06:52 AM
One of the most powerful charging stations for electric vehicles in the world.  Charges a full-size electric bus to maximum in 10-15 minutes.

China opens a new fast-charging station with 25 chargers at 360 kW
http://electrek.co/2015/12/07/china-opens-a-new-fast-charging-station-with-25-chargers-at-360-kw/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/07/china-opens-a-new-fast-charging-station-with-25-chargers-at-360-kw/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 08, 2015, 04:36:35 PM
Neven, your wish for a simple EV has been granted! :D  Lots of body-style options, too.

http://polaris.hs.llnwd.net/o40/lev/2016/manuals-and-guides/2016-gem-brochure.pdf (http://polaris.hs.llnwd.net/o40/lev/2016/manuals-and-guides/2016-gem-brochure.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on December 08, 2015, 05:07:34 PM
Yes, that looks more like it, and customizable too, unlike Tesla's Frankencars.  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 09, 2015, 01:47:31 AM
Yes, that looks more like it, and customizable too, unlike Tesla's Frankencars.  ;D

We prefer the term [computer network] "Server on Wheels."   ;)


http://electrek.co/2015/12/03/how-to-hack-a-tesla-model-s-video/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/03/how-to-hack-a-tesla-model-s-video/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on December 09, 2015, 05:26:15 AM
That open-air-design of the polaris would be absolutely wonderful here in Sweden, for a masochist.

I was wrong in my comment above regarding the fuel pricing, saw yesterday that E85 already is more expensive than petrol and diesel.
Diesel 11:00
Petrol 11:41
E85 11:58
Biodiesel 12:10

SEK...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on December 09, 2015, 09:54:08 AM
Google Snags Former Tesla Autopilot Engineering Manager Robert Rose
http://techcrunch.com/2015/11/30/google-snags-former-tesla-autopilot-engineering-manager-robert-rose/ (http://techcrunch.com/2015/11/30/google-snags-former-tesla-autopilot-engineering-manager-robert-rose/)

The battle to make elite autonomous vehicles is on, and a major part of that is assembling teams that will carry out your plans.

Today, it was reported that Google snagged Tesla’s former Autopilot software engineering manager, Robert Rose. Rose also spent five years at SpaceX, according to his LinkedIn profile.

We’re hearing he’s not going to be working on the cars themselves, but software at Google tends to make the rounds. Rose’s gig for “Google Robots” is listed as “Engineering Manager,” the same title that he held at Tesla for six months. There, Rose says he “led Autopilot & UI teams through Release 7.0 Model S update.”

Check out our test of autopilot here.

We’ve reached out to Google for a statement and will update once we hear back.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2015, 02:58:35 AM
Faraday Future chooses an EV manufacturing site in... Nevada.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/faraday-future-picks-las-vegas-suburb-for-1-billion-auto-plant (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-10/faraday-future-picks-las-vegas-suburb-for-1-billion-auto-plant)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2015, 03:12:44 PM
Chinese search giant Baidu’s self-driving car successfully hits the road
http://electrek.co/2015/12/09/chinese-search-giant-baidus-self-driving-car-successfully-hits-the-road/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/09/chinese-search-giant-baidus-self-driving-car-successfully-hits-the-road/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 10, 2015, 09:01:08 PM
A few more details on Faraday Future's agreement with Nevada and its "$1 billion factory in North Las Vegas at the sparsely populated, 18,000-acre Apex Industrial Park."
http://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/dec/09/chinese-backed-electric-carmaker-picks-north-las-v/ (http://lasvegassun.com/news/2015/dec/09/chinese-backed-electric-carmaker-picks-north-las-v/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2015, 02:42:11 AM
Ford is getting serious about electric cars, announces $4.5 billion in investment and 13 new models coming.
DEARBORN, Mich.–...Ford is investing an additional $4.5 billion in electrified vehicle solutions by 2020 ....

Ford is adding 13 new electrified vehicles to its portfolio by 2020, when more than 40 percent of the company’s global nameplates will come in electrified versions. This represents Ford’s largest-ever electrified vehicle investment in a five-year period.

On the way next year is a new Focus Electric, which features all-new DC fast-charge capability delivering an 80 percent charge in an estimated 30 minutes and projected 100-mile range – an estimated two hours faster than today’s Focus Electric.
http://electrek.co/2015/12/10/ford-is-getting-serious-about-electric-cars-announces-4-5-billion-in-investment-and-13-new-models-coming/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/10/ford-is-getting-serious-about-electric-cars-announces-4-5-billion-in-investment-and-13-new-models-coming/)


Edit: Gotta say, this is like lightning speed for such a big change from a Detroit auto company.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 11, 2015, 08:01:01 PM
Wow.  I hope these robots are friendly.  ;)

Rare footage from a Tesla Fremont Factory tour [video]
http://electrek.co/2015/12/11/rare-footage-from-a-tesla-fremont-factory-tour-video/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/11/rare-footage-from-a-tesla-fremont-factory-tour-video/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2015, 06:19:56 PM
VW teases long-distance electric Microbus concept for 2016 CES debut
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/vw-teases-long-distance-electric-microbus-concept-for-2016-ces-deput/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on December 12, 2015, 09:15:54 PM
VW teases long-distance electric Microbus concept for 2016 CES debut
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/vw-teases-long-distance-electric-microbus-concept-for-2016-ces-deput/

Production will start as soon as they have decided where to hide the exhaust pipe.  ;) ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 14, 2015, 12:07:41 AM
Time for a change of climate?   ;) ;D

VW Says Emissions Cheating Was Not a One-Time Error
The chairman of Volkswagen said on Thursday that the decision by employees to cheat on emissions tests was made more than a decade ago, after they realized they could not meet United States clean air standards legally.

Hans-Dieter Pötsch, the chairman of Volkswagen’s supervisory board, said the cheating took place in a climate of lax ethical standards.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/11/business/international/vw-emissions-scandal.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/11/business/international/vw-emissions-scandal.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2015, 08:16:46 PM
Attempts to calculate how long it would take for all cars to become electric.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101394_switching-the-world-to-electric-vehicles-will-take-way-longer-than-you-think (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101394_switching-the-world-to-electric-vehicles-will-take-way-longer-than-you-think)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 15, 2015, 08:33:09 PM
West Coast Mayors Form EV Consortium, Pledge Carbon Reductions
As world leaders met this past week in Paris to discuss carbon reductions on a global scale, mayors of four large West Coast cities—Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Portland—met in Portland for a two-day summit and united to reduce carbon emissions on a regional level.

The signed declaration, by the mayors of those cities and of Eugene, Oregon, includes joint plans to cut carbon emissions by 80 percent by 2050 within their cities.

It would involve more use of renewable energy sources, accelerated conversions of city fleets to electric and biodiesel vehicles, and more investment of federal funds toward public transit expansion.
...
Along with other ZEV-emissions states, the same group also simultaneously joined the International ZEV Alliance, which aims to make all new cars emission-free by 2050.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101389_west-coast-mayors-form-ev-consortium-pledge-carbon-reductions (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101389_west-coast-mayors-form-ev-consortium-pledge-carbon-reductions)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 17, 2015, 12:51:29 AM
New Investigations Of Bosch, EU Loans In VW Diesel Emission Scandal
Bosch reportedly warned Volkswagen in 2007 that the way it planned to use software being installed with diesel engines was illegal.
...
Late Tuesday, German media reported that the European Commission's Anti-Fraud Office (OLAF) is investigating VW on suspicion that it had misused funds from low-interest EU loans granted for R&D into cleaner and lower-emission engines.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101441_new-investigations-of-bosch-eu-loans-in-vw-diesel-emission-scandal (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101441_new-investigations-of-bosch-eu-loans-in-vw-diesel-emission-scandal)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 19, 2015, 03:38:40 AM
Tesla CEO Elon Musk joins call for CARB to force VW to invest in electric vehicles as “punishment” for ‘DieselGate’
38 company and environmental group leaders, including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, signed an open letter proposing that the California Air Resources Board (CARB) lets VW off the hook in California for having cheated on reporting emissions in its diesel cars and in return, VW would be forced to significantly invest in electric vehicles or other zero-emission vehicles.

http://electrek.co/2015/12/18/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-joins-call-for-carb-to-force-vw-to-invest-in-electric-vehicles-as-punishment-for-dieselgate/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/18/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-joins-call-for-carb-to-force-vw-to-invest-in-electric-vehicles-as-punishment-for-dieselgate/)


Hunh.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg63737.html#msg63737 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg63737.html#msg63737)
 ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Laurent on December 19, 2015, 12:18:51 PM
VW to Introduce All-Electric, Long-Range Camper Van
http://adventure-journal.com/2015/12/vw-to-introduce-all-electric-long-range-camper-van/ (http://adventure-journal.com/2015/12/vw-to-introduce-all-electric-long-range-camper-van/)

Can Volkswagen rebuild the trust that was lost over its emissions-cheating scandal? Time will tell. Maybe in the short term, distraction is good enough, and the new model that VW is set to reveal at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next month will be one heck of a distraction: It’s going to be an all-electric microbus camper van, with a range of up to 310 miles, Autocar reports.

The van, called Camper, will be announced during the January 5 keynote address by Herbert Diess, head of passenger cars for Volkswagen.

The vehicle was confirmed by Gary Shapiro, whose company produces CES. “We are pleased Volkswagen will use the CES stage to unveil a concept car displaying its latest developments in safe and energy-efficient electric vehicles consistent with VW’s long history of innovation in the driving experience.”

Shapiro said the van is a “groundbreaking electric vehicle that will further illustrate the synergy between the Internet of Things and the automotive industry,”

Will it look like the blue concept van pictured above? Or more like the red one pictured below? A Volkswagen spokesman told Autocar that the van will strongly resemble the original bus, keeping in mind three important design cues. “First the wide, solid, D-pillar, second the boxy design of the centre section and, thirdly, the front end must have a very short overhang. The distance from the A-pillar to the front end must be very short.”

The van will be front wheel drive, with a small motor up front and battery packs under the floor. Sorry, folks, it’s not a replacement for the Syncro. But with a battery system based on the 2016 Audi R8 e-tron sports car and e-tron Quattro Concept SUV, its range of 250 to 300 miles would top everything currently available in the States except for Teslas.

VW plans to build the Camper in Mexico beginning in 2017, and there will be a four-cylinder gasoline version and a diesel version, too. At least, we can hope. In 2001, Volkswagen announced a new microbus would be available in 2003. It missed that target date and two years later the company pulled the plug on the program.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: mati on December 19, 2015, 03:42:32 PM
Wow.  I hope these robots are friendly.  ;)

Rare footage from a Tesla Fremont Factory tour [video]
http://electrek.co/2015/12/11/rare-footage-from-a-tesla-fremont-factory-tour-video/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/11/rare-footage-from-a-tesla-fremont-factory-tour-video/)

a nice tour of the facility with all the Kuka robots :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8eKycNNdI0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8eKycNNdI0)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 21, 2015, 11:01:35 PM
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops his prediction of full autonomous driving from 3 years to just 2
http://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/21/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-drops-prediction-full-autonomous-driving-from-3-years-to-2/)

And the Fortune article referenced in the above piece:
Elon Musk Says Tesla Vehicles Will Drive Themselves in Two Years
http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/ (http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 24, 2015, 05:51:33 PM
Tesla’s Secret Master Plan (For Those Just Joining The Party)
http://evobsession.com/teslas-secret-master-plan-for-those-just-joining-the-party/ (http://evobsession.com/teslas-secret-master-plan-for-those-just-joining-the-party/)


Meanwhile:  a Tesla owner wanna-be?

A Smart EV owner gets stuck after “accidentally” plugging his car in a Tesla Supercharger
http://electrek.co/2015/12/24/smart-ev-stuck-plugging-tesla-supercharger/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/24/smart-ev-stuck-plugging-tesla-supercharger/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2015, 06:45:36 PM
The environmental cost of shipping stuff is huge. Can we fix that?
http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10647768/shipping-environmental-cost (http://www.vox.com/2015/12/23/10647768/shipping-environmental-cost)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2015, 07:20:53 PM
No More California Carpool-Lane Stickers For Plug-In Hybrids
Solo carpool-lane access has proven to be one of the most effective tools to get California drivers to buy plug-in electric cars.

But soon new drivers of plug-in hybrids in the Golden State may no longer be able to take advantage of that perk--unlike new drivers of battery-electric cars.

The full allotment of 85,000 "green stickers" has been issued, and there will be no more unless the state legislature authorizes it.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101602_no-more-california-carpool-lane-stickers-for-plug-in-hybrids (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101602_no-more-california-carpool-lane-stickers-for-plug-in-hybrids)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 29, 2015, 07:35:59 PM
Environmental Justice Groups: Not So Fast, Musk--VW Diesels Must Be Fixed!
Forcing VW to build more electric cars won't really address the issue of its emissions cheating, says the environmental justice community.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101603_environmental-justice-groups-not-so-fast-musk--vw-diesels-must-be-fixed (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101603_environmental-justice-groups-not-so-fast-musk--vw-diesels-must-be-fixed)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 30, 2015, 07:33:38 PM
U.K. Extends Green-Car Grants To Double Buyers By 2018
The extension is backed by a £400 million ($595 million) funding package, and will benefit up to 100,000 U.K. car buyers, officials say.

That's twice the number of buyers who have received grants of up to £4,500 ($6,696) through the program since 2011.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101610_u-k-extends-green-car-grants-to-double-buyers-by-2018 (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101610_u-k-extends-green-car-grants-to-double-buyers-by-2018)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sesyf on January 01, 2016, 03:16:24 PM
Hi

So far I haven't had anything to add to the several interesting discussions by persons who know a lot more than I... but at last something that I haven't yet noticed in the forums. A Finnish electric bus company is now building 12 fast-charging buses for testing in Helsinki area:

http://www.linkkerbus.com/naytasivu/Demanding+piloting+in+Helsinki/49
 (http://www.linkkerbus.com/naytasivu/Demanding+piloting+in+Helsinki/49)

I'll go and get a ride in one when they get them to traffic... there will be probably quite a few news about them in finnish media at that point.

Also they have got contract for something similar in Copenhagen.

Best
Seppo S.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 01, 2016, 09:38:09 PM
Delhi residents give up cars to stop toxic air pollution
Smog-choked residents of New Delhi welcomed the new year on Friday by largely complying with dramatic new driving restrictions designed to pull millions of cars off the roads and improve air quality.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/01/news/delhi-india-cars-autos-air-pollution/index.html (http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/01/news/delhi-india-cars-autos-air-pollution/index.html)


Acknowledging, and beginning to take action on, the problem is a good start.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 01, 2016, 11:37:39 PM
On January 4, 2016, at 8:00PM PST (11pm EST, 4am Tue UTC),
"Faraday Future" will unveil its new concept car at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nevada.  Not much is known about the secretive company, other than it employs several former Tesla and SpaceX people, and it will be building a $1 billion factory in Nevada.  Even less is known about the car, other than it will be a long range, all-electric vehicle.

A live stream of the event will happen here:
http://www.faradayfuture.com/ces2016/ (http://www.faradayfuture.com/ces2016/)


Nevada approves $335 million in incentives for Faraday Future to build its electric car factory in the state
http://electrek.co/2015/12/21/nevada-335-million-deal-for-faraday-future-build-electric-car-factory/ (http://electrek.co/2015/12/21/nevada-335-million-deal-for-faraday-future-build-electric-car-factory/)

“We’re not Tesla. But we’re not Fisker either. We’re not f***ing around.” – Faraday Future; a new electric vehicle company
http://electrek.co/2015/07/16/were-not-tesla-but-were-not-fisker-either-were-not-fucking-around-faraday-future-a-new-electric-vehicle-company/ (http://electrek.co/2015/07/16/were-not-tesla-but-were-not-fisker-either-were-not-fucking-around-faraday-future-a-new-electric-vehicle-company/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 03, 2016, 02:12:27 PM
The Dirty Truth About ‘Clean Diesel’
MONTREAL — AS scandals go, it was a juicy one. Volkswagen, one of the world’s highest grossing automakers, persuaded consumers it had created a new generation of so-called clean diesel cars — until investigators discovered that defeat devices, which activated emissions controls only when the cars were tested, were concealing the fact that its vehicles emitted up to 40 times the permitted levels of pollutants during regular use.

Volkswagen has been punished with consumer opprobrium, a costly recall and plummeting sales. Yet the public outrage over the fraud obscures a much larger issue.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/opinion/sunday/the-dirty-truth-about-clean-diesel.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/opinion/sunday/the-dirty-truth-about-clean-diesel.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 04, 2016, 05:36:48 PM
India investigates VW diesels, launches incentive scheme for EVs
The dark cloud from Volkswagen’s diesel debacle is spreading around the world. India’s Heavy Industries Ministry ordered an independent investigation, which led to the recall of 323,000 VW vehicles in India (via The Times of India). The ministry says it plans to to start testing all on-road diesel vehicles in the country to see if they too are violating emissions rules.

Coincidentally or not, the ministry has now launched a program called Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric vehicles in India (FAME India) as part of the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan.

The new policy offers incentives for buyers of all types of electric and hybrid vehicles: up to 29,000 rupees ($438) for scooters and motorcycles; 138,000 rupees ($2,083) for cars; and 187,000 rupees ($2,822) for light commercial vehicles.

The first phase of the scheme will be implemented over a two-year period, and has a budget of just under 8 billion rupees ($121 million).
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/india-investigates-vw-diesels-launches-incentive-scheme-for-evs/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 05, 2016, 03:09:21 PM
On January 4, 2016, at 8:00PM PST (11pm EST, 4am Tue UTC),
"Faraday Future" will unveil its new concept car at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Nevada.  Not much is known about the secretive company, other than it employs several former Tesla and SpaceX people, and it will be building a $1 billion factory in Nevada.  Even less is known about the car, other than it will be a long range, all-electric vehicle.

A live stream of the event will happen here:
http://www.faradayfuture.com/ces2016/ (http://www.faradayfuture.com/ces2016/)

They may have great ideas in digital form, but I'd call their presentation last night 'embarrassing.'   :-\
Some kind of car... in "a couple years."  Not the major player they imagine themselves to be.  Yet, anyway.

Faraday Future officially unveils its first concept car: FFZERO1
But – and it’s a testament to the effectiveness of FF’s marketing team I suppose – with all the hype and teasers, and especially the claim of a vehicle to market by 2017, we thought Faraday Future would show an alpha prototype of the mass market car they plan to produce, not a Batmobile-looking single-seater with little to no chance of finding itself in the hands of customers, no matter how cool it looks.

I still think Faraday Future has interesting potential. They have an impressive and growing team of automobile and tech veterans, and they are backed by the deep pockets of LeTV, which we already suspected, but the company finally confirmed it tonight by introducing LeTV’s Ding Lei on stage during the presentation. But we certainly need to learn more about their ownership model and mass market car, both subject which were barely addressed during the presentation.
http://electrek.co/2016/01/05/faraday-future-officially-unveils-its-first-concept-car-ffzero1-gallery-and-videos/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/05/faraday-future-officially-unveils-its-first-concept-car-ffzero1-gallery-and-videos/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2016, 01:38:08 AM
Researchers Advance Propulsion Toward Low-Carbon Aircraft
Glenn researchers are looking at power systems that generate electricity in place of, or in addition to, thrust at the turbine engine and then convert that electricity to be converted into thrust using fans at other places on the aircraft.

 “These systems use electric motors and generators that work together with turbine engines to distribute power throughout the aircraft in order to reduce drag for a given amount of fuel burned,” says Amy Jankovsky, subproject lead engineer.  “Part of our research is developing the lightweight machinery and electrical systems that will be required to make these systems possible.”
http://www.nasa.gov/feature/researchers-advance-propulsion-toward-low-carbon-aircraft/ (http://www.nasa.gov/feature/researchers-advance-propulsion-toward-low-carbon-aircraft/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 06, 2016, 07:32:54 PM
VW unveils its all-electric microbus concept: BUDD-e with a massive 101 kWh battery for 373 miles of range [per the NEDC (Euro) measuring system].
Again, BUDD-e is only an early concept for now, so of course it’s showcasing a ton of technologies you shouldn’t expect in a production car soon, but here’s the list of tech VW says it’s showcasing with its new concept...


Neven, avert your eyes now!  :o   ;D
With BUDD-e’s interface design, Volkswagen eliminates the traditional distinction between the electronic instrument cluster in front of the driver and the center console infotainment system. In a move towards comprehensive digitalization and the individualization of the driver’s workplace, these two areas have been merged to form a single information hub.
...
The intelligent “Reminder” also informs when particular items should be remembered. For example, if rain is forecast, BUDD-e will notify the driver if there is an umbrella in the car.  ...
http://electrek.co/2016/01/06/vw-electric-microbus-concept-budd-e-101-kwh-373-miles-of-range-gallery/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/06/vw-electric-microbus-concept-budd-e-101-kwh-373-miles-of-range-gallery/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on January 06, 2016, 11:30:13 PM
Neven, avert your eyes now!  :o   ;D

Now you forced me to look.  ;) ;D

Look, why not dispense with the steering wheel? Just this huge touch screen where you can have all your apps, Facebook window, Spotify, GPS routing system, around this virtual steering wheel, over which you slide your hands, like you do with your fingers over a smartphone touchscreen, to steer and honk (you can pick your own honktone). With a big button with a waterdrop on it to operate your wipers, a little flame and a little ice block for AC temp. And you sit on this Japanese toilet that wipes your ass and takes a selfie when done.

BTW, I operated a smartphone (iPhone) for the first time a few days ago. What a disappointment! So small and inefficient, it's mostly about the addictive aspect, nothing else really. 90% bullshit. I'm so happy I don't have that Satan's spawn in my pocket.  :P
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2016, 03:58:25 AM

BTW, I operated a smartphone (iPhone) for the first time a few days ago. What a disappointment! So small and inefficient, it's mostly about the addictive aspect, nothing else really. 90% bullshit. I'm so happy I don't have that Satan's spawn in my pocket.  :P

Stay free, my friend, and keep reminding us of what life was like before our eyes were constantly glued to a little screen.  :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 07, 2016, 04:00:21 AM
India Riles Carmakers by Skipping a Step in Emissions Rules
India’s road transport ministry said it will impose tighter vehicle emissions rules four years early, skipping a transitional step offered in other countries to combat air worsening pollution.
...
The announcement is the latest step taken by India’s government and courts to fight urban smog after New Delhi and nine other Indian cities landed on a World Health Organization list of the world’s 15 most polluted municipalities, with the capital topping the ranking. The country’s Supreme Court on Tuesday upheld a temporary ban on registrations of large diesel cars in New Delhi. Executives at automakers, already reeling from that decision, said the accelerated emissions timetable poses a risk due to hasty implementation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/india-riles-carmakers-by-skipping-a-step-in-new-emissions-rules (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-06/india-riles-carmakers-by-skipping-a-step-in-new-emissions-rules)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Buddy on January 07, 2016, 01:58:00 PM
Another nail in the coffin of fossil fuels....this one will "go deep" into its heart:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/01/07/first-drive-chevrolet-bolt-is-a-shocker-that-might-convince-you-to-buy-an-electric-car/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2016/01/07/first-drive-chevrolet-bolt-is-a-shocker-that-might-convince-you-to-buy-an-electric-car/)

$30,000.......200 mile range.  Not good if you own a gas station (or an oil company:)

Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 08, 2016, 03:47:49 AM
World’s largest electric bus fleet being delivered in Shenzhen (with video)
http://electrek.co/2016/01/07/worlds-largest-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-video/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/07/worlds-largest-electric-bus-fleet-shenzhen-video/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 08, 2016, 06:30:53 PM
Per the linked Washington Post article, the penetration of EV's & hybrids into the US market has been slower than hoped (primarily due to economics):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/government-has-spent-a-lot-on-electric-cars-but-was-it-worth-it/2016/01/06/359bd25c-b496-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/government-has-spent-a-lot-on-electric-cars-but-was-it-worth-it/2016/01/06/359bd25c-b496-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html)

Extract: "Now the 2015 car-sale data are in; time to review the bidding. Americans bought a record 17.5 million passenger vehicles in the United States, of which 116,548 — 0.67 percent — were either plug-in hybrids or all-electrics, according to insideevs.com. That was about 6,500 fewer than in 2014.

Automakers have sold 407,136 electrics (EVs) since they hit the market in 2010. That is 0.16 percent of the 250 million-plus U.S. passenger vehicle fleet. Assuming all are still on the road, carmakers must sell 300,000 this year and next to reach 1 million, or 0.3 percent of the fleet, by 2018."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 09, 2016, 04:31:20 AM
Tesla on fire in Norway at a fast charger.
! No longer available (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWXN7ni4FTc#)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: oren on January 09, 2016, 03:26:08 PM
Per the linked Washington Post article, the penetration of EV's & hybrids into the US market has been slower than hoped (primarily due to economics):

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/government-has-spent-a-lot-on-electric-cars-but-was-it-worth-it/2016/01/06/359bd25c-b496-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/government-has-spent-a-lot-on-electric-cars-but-was-it-worth-it/2016/01/06/359bd25c-b496-11e5-9388-466021d971de_story.html)

Extract: "Now the 2015 car-sale data are in; time to review the bidding. Americans bought a record 17.5 million passenger vehicles in the United States, of which 116,548 — 0.67 percent — were either plug-in hybrids or all-electrics, according to insideevs.com. That was about 6,500 fewer than in 2014.

Automakers have sold 407,136 electrics (EVs) since they hit the market in 2010. That is 0.16 percent of the 250 million-plus U.S. passenger vehicle fleet. Assuming all are still on the road, carmakers must sell 300,000 this year and next to reach 1 million, or 0.3 percent of the fleet, by 2018."

I think this says it all. A lot of attention, but the rate of adoption is simply too slow to make any meaningful impact. And this in the USA and with subsidies. Imagine what happens in less developed countries.
Admittedly cheaper EVs will improve these numbers, but those that plan on replacing the whole US fleet in 20-30 years to EVs running on solar-generated electricity are in for a big disappointment. And low oil prices in the short term don't help.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on January 09, 2016, 06:27:00 PM
I don't think anyone expects EVs to replace 100% of the light vehicle fleet.
EVs are being adopted faster than hybrids were, and the near future looks very bright with the next generation EVs starting late this year with the Bolt.

Too little, too late?  Perhaps, but they seem to be on a fairly rapid adoption rate considering the change required by the owners.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on January 09, 2016, 07:07:25 PM
It is very hard to say what the best comparison is to judge the uptake rate of EVs. Some suggest we should look at the way cell phones and then smartphones took off and are now omni-present.

Here's an interesting comparison between Tesla sales growth and Porsche sales growth. I'd have never thought of this one since I thought Porsche has been around forever (but what do I know)

http://evobsession.com/tesla-sales-similar-to-porsche-sales-in-20002001/ (http://evobsession.com/tesla-sales-similar-to-porsche-sales-in-20002001/)

This may or may not be a valid comparison but it is worth noting at least.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 09, 2016, 08:35:44 PM
It strikes me a a lot of marketing when I see statements which imply that sales of ev's in the US are good or showing good trends. 

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  This is dismissed by statements about folks waiting for this years models or that they are being adopted at rapid or meaningful rates.  What we see are flat and declining sales rates.  The simple answer to why this is happening is clear.

Oil prices are way down.

This makes the economics of owning an ICE vehicle much cheaper than for EV's. 

Then you have the consumer issues which are facilitated by those low prices for oil.  In those 17.5 million sales it is good do keep in mind that most all of the growth is in the largest most fuel inefficient vehicles - pickups and SUV's.  The growth in those categories far - far- exceeds the EV sales numbers.  Pickups and SUV's accounted for 60% of 2015 sales - that is 10.5 million vehicles! 

That block of sales takes us past 2025 in terms of the financial commitment of the buyers and the emissions dialed into the system.  Thus what happened this year and in 2014 has swamped all the possible benefits from all previous EV sales in the US and also for several years to come.  We lost huge ground - huge.

To top this off oil prices are going to be very low for this year as well.  While the likely decline in the US economy might slow car sales it is still certain that 2016 will see very large sales of the biggest ICE vehicles and, at best, small increases in total sales of EV's.  Those advocating the EV revolution being a solution are going to fall even further behind this year.

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on January 10, 2016, 05:09:22 AM
...

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  ...

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

By the very link you referenced, EV sales were not flat in 2014, they were up.
We shall have to see what EV sales do this year.  I believe they will increase, mainly on strength of PHEVs, with BEVs having more growth than PHEVs in 2017.

As for which types of cars, I would rather replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with electrics than smaller efficient ICE vehicles.  Far larger gains.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on January 10, 2016, 05:48:24 AM
china at 24 million cars for the year, roughly 1% EV and hybrid, year on year growth rates of 600% for the latter. Lets see where they go.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on January 10, 2016, 01:14:18 PM
It is very hard to say what the best comparison is to judge the uptake rate of EVs. Some suggest we should look at the way cell phones and then smartphones took off and are now omni-present.

Here's an interesting comparison between Tesla sales growth and Porsche sales growth. I'd have never thought of this one since I thought Porsche has been around forever (but what do I know)

http://evobsession.com/tesla-sales-similar-to-porsche-sales-in-20002001/ (http://evobsession.com/tesla-sales-similar-to-porsche-sales-in-20002001/)

This may or may not be a valid comparison but it is worth noting at least.
ghoti, I think this comparison is far from valid. Porsche now is in the process of being transfered to the 4th generation of the family with interesting changes on the way (including e.g. designers and an anthroposophic educator Daniell Porsche) - but held closely behind the scenes today. In the time-frame talked about in the linked article Porsche was very profitable and able to buy Volkswagen while Tesla is succesfull in burning money. Once Tusk would rule also GM you could start thinking about similarities. Porsche and now also Volkswagen is ruled like a monarchy by the family - a big international company ruled like a medium-sized company. So the comparison you cited is just extremely cherry-picked data. You will find mainly differences between those two companies/clans if you take a bit closer look.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 10, 2016, 04:03:09 PM
...

Sales were flat in 2014 and down in 2015.  ...

And in terms of what is happening with this issue it is North America which is the key market.  It is not just that EV sales fell 5.3% in 2015.  It is worse than that as 22% of all EV sales in the US were high end luxury cars.  Tesla's.  The sales of luxury cars is never a positive marker when the issue is stopping excessive consumption and waste of resources.  A person buying a small fuel efficient ICE vehicle is doing far more to help than some rich guy hot rodding around in a Tesla.  They are no different than Al Gore talking environmentalism and living in a 40,000 plus square foot mansion.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/ (http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/)

By the very link you referenced, EV sales were not flat in 2014, they were up.
We shall have to see what EV sales do this year.  I believe they will increase, mainly on strength of PHEVs, with BEVs having more growth than PHEVs in 2017.

As for which types of cars, I would rather replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with electrics than smaller efficient ICE vehicles.  Far larger gains.


Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.

Once again we see excuses for low sales and promise's that they are just around the corner.

Then you say you want to replace high performance/large ICE vehicles with EV's.  But that is not what is happening.  The ICE vehicles are growing strongly.  All you are doing is adding another luxury vehicle.  That is just stupid.

sidd

china at 24 million cars for the year, roughly 1% EV and hybrid, year on year growth rates of 600% for the latter. Lets see where they go.

China is not the main problem here.  It is the US, Canada, and the like. 


It is all well and good to fall in love with some cool gadget.  But stop selling this technology as a solution.  Spend some serious time examining the problems we have.  This is just pissing into the wind as it cannot in any meaningful way stop over population, exceeding the carrying capacity nor is it going to make a meaningful difference on the arrival of massive climate change effects.  Focus on things that really matter and where improvement will result in dealing with the key problems.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Zythryn on January 10, 2016, 06:54:38 PM
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: SATire on January 10, 2016, 08:04:23 PM
I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.
Zythryn, I think JimD is quite right and if you read some of the previous pages in this thread you are able to understand that. E.g replacing a Mustang by a Tesla is not helping much. Replacing it by a Leaf would help - even a standard 75 mpg combustion car would help. Actually not the "replacing" would help but only the "buying instead". Since the scrapping of the Mustang would also be a waste of energy while selling it as a used car would not end the problems it causes.

A Tesla or such is not reasonable for driving but for sex (sports car) and crime (SUV), just like a Porsche, BMW, Mustang or actually most cars out there. If the car business would be driven by facts and reason it would be dead since the Ford T... Unfortunately it is not about driving but about emotions.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 11, 2016, 06:15:17 PM
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.

You are making several mistakes here.

The first is that you are focusing on little tiny numbers.  Round a bit.  EV sales have been running about 100k per year.  That is flat.

100K is a meaningless number in a market of 17+ million vehicles.  Promoters have been claiming for years that they are going to take over the market.  There have been some claiming that ev's will be over 50% of sales by 2020.  I hope you can see that this idea is crazy. 

But sales of ice vehicles are growing strongly.  And those low total numbers of ev's are weighed against the much larger numbers of ice vehicles.  That is losing ground by any measure.  For example the sales increase in Chevy Silverado pickups alone in 2015 was 80,000 - roughly equal to the total sales of non-luxury ev's.

A very big part of the ev sales is luxury cars.  To try and say that they are better than some ice luxury car is right back to the Al Gore hypocrisy that he is an environmentalist because he puts solar panels on his 40,000 sq ft mansion.  If you are driving a luxury car you are part of the problem not part of the solution.  Take out luxury cars from the ev totals and you have even more meaningless sales numbers.  Tesla is not part of the solution since their market is selling a very expensive high tech lifestyle. 

Cars are the enemy.  All cars pretty much.  Because they come part and parcel with some version of BAU and continuing industrial civilizational lifestyles.  Cars promote suburban and rural living and consumer orientations.  All bad practices.  We need people to be moving into denser housing which is built to completely different standards than almost 100% of dwellings currently lived in and being built and that new housing must be served by mass transit and where there is no need for cars at all.

This all goes towards looking at our problems from a systemic point of view.  This is where one sees that the idea of ev's or renewables in general are not a solution.  They can be essential technologies providing the main problems are solved.  But focusing on them and not working on the big problems is the green BAU we see and that approach makes it much less likely the effort will be put into working the essential issues.  This is what you are advocating when you put these ideas forward as solutions and it leads to utter failure.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 11, 2016, 09:59:19 PM
So all those articles a few months ago, describing fully autonomous driving in 2025 or 2035?  Heh!  Elon Musk says that with Tesla's auto-learning features accumulating over a million miles of experience a day, cars (with the appropriate hardware) will be able to drive themselves, on all roads, with safety better than a human, in two to three years!  Appropriate legislation is being discussed....
  Also coming: a "less creepy" automatic charger-plugger-inner!   ;)
  Link to the audio of his entire conference call is included in the article linked below.

Tesla’s Autopilot is now better than humans at highway driving – Elon Musk press conference for the release of software v7.1
http://electrek.co/2016/01/11/elon-musk-press-conference-v7-1-tesla-summon/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/11/elon-musk-press-conference-v7-1-tesla-summon/)

More on the Summon feature, including videos of it in action:
http://electrek.co/2016/01/09/model-s-drive-itself-tesla-updated-v7-1-with-summoninging-option/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/09/model-s-drive-itself-tesla-updated-v7-1-with-summoninging-option/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 12, 2016, 04:34:54 AM
Teslas gadgetry is amazing, how amazing would it be here?
Nowadays, when it snows, it snows like .... .

The device used to summon my car is an old (1983) fossil guzzling Ariens ST1136. 11hp, 36" wide and 40" high (101,6 cm), if someone wonders about the height of that wall of snow.

Edit, note that the first picture is from 20101123. A full month earlier than when I cut my lawn last year...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2016, 03:02:10 PM
Here is my favorite video of a Tesla Model S passing several stuck SUVs on a steep snowy/icy hill.  The Tesla even stops completely, then starts again -- with no tire spin.
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html (http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html)

As for deep, unplowed snow... well, give Elon time.  You can already turn your Model S into a submarine.    ;)
New Tesla Model S Easter Egg — Turn The Model S Into The Lotus Esprit Submarine (VIDEO)
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/)

But as for flying cars, don't look to Tesla for that any time soon.  Elon says enough mayhem is caused with vehicles moving in only two dimensions.   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 12, 2016, 03:14:07 PM
...

Sorry.  That is flat.  Flat does not mean going down but not rising anywhere near as fast as expected/projected.  EV sales have been hyped and they are not performing.
...

EV sales were 97k in 2013.  In 2014 they were 123k.
That is about a 25% increase.

If you want to call that flat, that is your prerogative.  It is not, however, the typical meaning of the word. 
Did it meat some people's expectations?  No, but it met others almost dead on.

I find this forum very refreshing as it largely has people using facts, numbers and data.  Opinions are generally stated as such.

A Tesla that replaced a 18mpg Mustang in California reduced GHG contributions by a whole lot more than a Leaf replacing a Prius in California.

Is it enough of a reduction, perhaps not, but it is a lot more than doing nothing.

Jim D. I could not possibly agree with you more.

This all goes towards looking at our problems from a systemic point of view.  This is where one sees that the idea of ev's or renewables in general are not a solution.  They can be essential technologies providing the main problems are solved.  But focusing on them and not working on the big problems is the green BAU we see and that approach makes it much less likely the effort will be put into working the essential issues.  This is what you are advocating when you put these ideas forward as solutions and it leads to utter failure.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 12, 2016, 09:52:30 PM
Rethinking the Airplane, for Climate’s Sake
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/science/rethinking-the-airplane-for-climates-sake.html (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/science/rethinking-the-airplane-for-climates-sake.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ritter on January 13, 2016, 01:40:26 AM
California Air Resources Board says FU to VW's recall plan.

Air Resources Board rejects VW 2-liter diesel recall plan and issues Notice of Violation
http://www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/newsrelease.php?id=780 (http://www.arb.ca.gov/newsrel/newsrelease.php?id=780)

Well, at least I can now hit up VW again with the "see, your window sticker was deceitful and fraudulent, let me out of the god damned lease" argument again. Talk about pissing in the wind...  >:(
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 13, 2016, 09:13:16 AM
Here is my favorite video of a Tesla Model S passing several stuck SUVs on a steep snowy/icy hill.  The Tesla even stops completely, then starts again -- with no tire spin.
http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html (http://www.treehugger.com/cars/going-uphill-tesla-passes-bunch-suvs-stuck-snow-video.html)

As for deep, unplowed snow... well, give Elon time.  You can already turn your Model S into a submarine.    ;)
New Tesla Model S Easter Egg — Turn The Model S Into The Lotus Esprit Submarine (VIDEO)
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/ (http://cleantechnica.com/2015/03/02/new-tesla-model-s-easter-egg-turn-model-s-lotus-espirit-submarine/)

But as for flying cars, don't look to Tesla for that any time soon.  Elon says enough mayhem is caused with vehicles moving in only two dimensions.   ;D

Where is that video taken? I see neither snow or a steep hill. ;)
He should thank his Michelins for that. The rest of them must have been using slicks.

His car (Model S P85D) would cost me over 1.000.000 SEK here.
Including the 90kWh battery package and winter package, of course...
But Tesla owners are reporting the same thing as the rest of the EV owners here in Sweden and Norway, the range is/can be halved during winter.

This is what I have access to, in my nearest municipality (southern Sweden). One 230V 16A Schuko and three 400V 16A. And they are far from the places I usually visit and normally occupied by the local electricity company.

I simply can't buy an EV even if I had the money. Especially since the expansion of charging posts are left to companies like McDonalds...
Negative or realistic? You tell me.

First picture shows stations offering Tesla plugs.
Second picture shows stations offering fossil fuels.
Third picture shows stations offering renewables. (The yellow reporesents charging posts.)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: AbruptSLR on January 13, 2016, 06:59:03 PM
Per the linked articles both the US and Mexican auto industries had record high auto sales in 2015 (the image is from the first link) and are primed to possibly do better in 2016 (obviously this is not good for carbon emissions):

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/01/05/auto-sales/78295542/ (http://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/2016/01/05/auto-sales/78295542/)
http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-auto-industry-ends-2015-with-record-output-1452553261 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/mexican-auto-industry-ends-2015-with-record-output-1452553261)


See also:
http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-auto-sales-20160105-story.html (http://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-auto-sales-20160105-story.html)

Extract: "Americans have driven auto sales to their highest total in years, and analysts predicted more of the same for 2016.
Sales of new cars and trucks in 2015 hit 17.47 million, toppling the previous record of 17.35 million set in 2000. Analysts attributed the gains to a strong economy, interest rates that were at historic lows and higher consumer confidence."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 13, 2016, 08:41:53 PM
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)

As per the image below, I find many superchargers in Sweden in the PlugShare app.  (Teslas have adapter plugs so they can juice up at most chargers, or home dryer- or wall- plugs.  They don't have to use Tesla superchargers, and you can limit the amperage it draws, when necessary.)

So you can't afford a P90D.  Neither can I.  But similar technology will soon (2017) be available in the second generation of electric cars, with increased ranges, that most people will be able to afford.  (Yes, mountains and cold weather reduce max range.)

Given the increasing number of EVs in Sweden (Tesla sales were up 270% in Sweden in 2015 :) ), more chargers will certainly appear.  Give it time.  But I'm betting other EV drivers have already found some!
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 13, 2016, 09:30:35 PM
California Rejects VW Diesel Fix Plan: 'Gaps,' 'Lacks Detail'
It seems owners of Volkswagen diesel cars equipped with illegal "defeat device" software will have to wait longer for a recall to update their cars.

The plan submitted by VW in November to modify its 2.0-liter four-cylinder TDI diesel models has been rejected by the regulatory agencies that must approve those fixes.

The California Air Resources Board (CARB) said Tuesday that it had rejected the proposed plan. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) said it concurs.

Both CARB and the EPA must approve Volkswagen's plans before the company can proceed with a recall. The California agency made its decision after pushing back its own deadline for approval by a few weeks.

The proposed plans for the 2.0-liter cars "contain gaps and lack sufficient detail," a CARB press release said.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101854_california-rejects-vw-diesel-fix-plan-gaps-lacks-detail (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101854_california-rejects-vw-diesel-fix-plan-gaps-lacks-detail)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 13, 2016, 10:15:55 PM
Google's self-drive cars had to be stopped from crashing
Google drivers had to intervene to stop its self-driving cars from crashing on California's roads 13 times between September 2014 and November 2015.

The disclosure follows a local regulator's demand for the information.

Six other car tech companies also revealed data about autonomous-driving safety incidents of their own.
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35301279 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35301279)

The other companies had up to thousands of driver "interventions" -- although some were "planned."

Only Tesla had zero interventions. 

I note that Tesla's million-mile-per-day, shared fleet learning gives it orders of magnitude more experience than the other programs.

Edit: Reading the regulation, it appears this report covers only "testing", by the company's employee test drivers, under specific conditions.  So all of the Tesla owner "Beta-testers" don't count!
https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e-9df2-5ded9f208e9e/adopted_txt.pdf?MOD=AJPERES (https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/connect/d48f347b-8815-458e-9df2-5ded9f208e9e/adopted_txt.pdf?MOD=AJPERES)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2016, 12:03:10 AM
US Navy solicits bids to lease 400 to 600 EVs
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/us-navy-solicits-bids-to-lease-400-600-evs/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2016, 12:29:51 AM
When Do U.S. Electric-Car Tax Credits Expire? (UPDATED)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric-car-tax-credits-expire)

Germany wants to invest $2 billion in incentives for electric vehicle buyers
http://electrek.co/2016/01/13/germany-ev-incentive/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/13/germany-ev-incentive/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 14, 2016, 06:14:46 AM
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)
I'm sure I would have made that hill with a Volvo from the sixties with zero computing power and equipped with proper tyres. I've seen a lot worse conditions than that, our roads are rarely ploughed in the mornings when we get to work here. Where do you live Sigmetnow?
As per the image below, I find many superchargers in Sweden in the PlugShare app.  (Teslas have adapter plugs so they can juice up at most chargers, or home dryer- or wall- plugs.  They don't have to use Tesla superchargers, and you can limit the amperage it draws, when necessary.)
I know, more gadgets to buy. If you consider CCS, CHADEMO and Teslas SC we have these available, as per the image below. We need more fast chargers, not regular 10/16A outlets...
So you can't afford a P90D.  Neither can I.  But similar technology will soon (2017) be available in the second generation of electric cars, with increased ranges, that most people will be able to afford.  (Yes, mountains and cold weather reduce max range.)
A fully equipped P85D costs 1.553.400 SEK. :)
As for future promises I need increased range and/or more fast chargers, please. And larger EV's... I will wait until next year and let you know how things go. Soon come, is a Jamaican expression isn't it? ;)
Given the increasing number of EVs in Sweden (Tesla sales were up 270% in Sweden in 2015 :) ), more chargers will certainly appear.  Give it time.  But I'm betting other EV drivers have already found some!
They were actually up 274,3%. In the second picture are the numbers by Tesla Club Sweden. The other "big" seller here is Nissan.
I'll take your bet! How much? 
There are unfortunately ZERO fast chargers available where I live. And that's in southern Sweden...

And McDonalds has finished their project with thirteen fastchargers.
http://www.mcdonalds.se/se/om_mcdonald_s/vart_hallbarhetsarbete/ladda_elbilen.html (http://www.mcdonalds.se/se/om_mcdonald_s/vart_hallbarhetsarbete/ladda_elbilen.html) Have a burger and feel green!!

Edit; -19°C this morning (talk about wild swings) and my car almost didn't start. A Korean car was clearly a bad choice despite that ECO sticker in the back, the only EC(h)O it makes is from the exhaust, if it starts. :( I would love to have an EV, but there are clearly some challenges.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 14, 2016, 09:24:36 AM
Time ran out. So, after freezing my ass off for a while I thought I'd add the statistics for car sales in Sweden 2015.

The big boomer in Sweden IS in fact Tesla and other pure EV's. Sales increased 213% compared to 2014. Happy dance?
Total number of pure EV's were 2962. Numbers for all of the "clean cars" are found in the first attached picture.
If you look at the percentage of all newly registered cars sales, "clean cars" dropped from 18% in 2014 to 17,5% in 2015. How?

We just registered a new record in car sales and some are indeed doing the happy dance.
345108 new cars during 2015, an increase by 13,5% compared to 2014. The numbers for 2015 are the highest ever and beats the previous record from 1988 which was 343963 cars.

Not all newly registered cars are accounted for in this report by Car Sweden. But close. Unfortunately the report is in Swedish but the rest is in this PDF: http://goo.gl/wwmuAA (http://goo.gl/wwmuAA)
Pic 2 sales per month.
Pic 3 history since 1960 and the projection for 2016.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 14, 2016, 07:38:55 PM
Sleepy, 

I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that the P90D powers each wheel individually, computer-controlled to the microsecond to eliminate wheel spin (and thus not even a tire "chirp" upon a full-bore racing start)....  ;)
I'm sure I would have made that hill with a Volvo from the sixties with zero computing power and equipped with proper tyres. I've seen a lot worse conditions than that, our roads are rarely ploughed in the mornings when we get to work here. Where do you live Sigmetnow?
...

I, too, managed to drive to work for many years in the early morning, even through unplowed deep snow, in a front-(or, less enjoyably, a rear-)wheel-drive gas car.  Technique is everything.   ;D

So I'll say only that the rolling resistance on your Volvo's "tyres" ;)  does not approach the critical importance of that aspect for an EV.

And, I live in the mountains of the eastern U.S.  :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 14, 2016, 08:12:45 PM
Sorry for my lousy English, Sigmetnow. It's been fifteen years now since I used English on a regular basis (time spent on this forum excluded) and it still hurts to use it. I would rather prefer Swedish, would you? ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 01:37:44 PM
Sorry for my lousy English, Sigmetnow. It's been fifteen years now since I used English on a regular basis (time spent on this forum excluded) and it still hurts to use it. I would rather prefer Swedish, would you? ;)

Your English is excellent!!!  It's my "American" that fouls things up.  ;D 
Languages are cool.  I've studied Mandarin Chinese and American Sign Language, besides high school French, some Latin, and an occasional Spanish lesson.  Never attempted Swedish, though.  ;)

The point I wanted to make was that you can't just pick out a tire with an amazingly aggressive tread and slap it on an EV, because not only would it severely affect range and performance, but you could irreparably damage the power train.  So, although their heavy weight from the battery pack helps, it is more the technology than the tires that gets an EV up a slippery hill.  Which is pretty impressive to me! 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 01:40:16 PM
Indianapolis deploys second-largest electric bus fleet in the US
The ZEPS buses not only create zero local emissions, but they were remanufactured from existing legacy buses, which achieved significant carbon savings and allowed IndyGo to acquire them at a fraction of the cost of new all-electric buses.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/indianapolis-deploys-second-largest-electric-bus-fleet-in-the-us/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: wili on January 15, 2016, 04:33:52 PM
The Swedish Institute provides free online classes in Swedish! http://learningswedish.se/courses/1 (http://learningswedish.se/courses/1)

I had a small electric car. I don't remember going up slippery hills as much of a problem. More that I had greatly reduced range when we got down to temperatures much below freezing. That and the fact that it was too light and small to go over snow banks that the plows would leave at the entrances to alley ways and drive ways. I ended up pretty much leaving it in the garage during the deepest parts of the winter.

That was a very early model though (the Zenn), and I assume they've made improvements on all those fronts with more recent types of EVs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 08:26:32 PM
The Swedish Institute provides free online classes in Swedish! http://learningswedish.se/courses/1 (http://learningswedish.se/courses/1)

Neat!  I'll give it a look.
Var är biblioteket, here I come.  :)

I had a small electric car. I don't remember going up slippery hills as much of a problem. More that I had greatly reduced range when we got down to temperatures much below freezing. That and the fact that it was too light and small to go over snow banks that the plows would leave at the entrances to alley ways and drive ways. I ended up pretty much leaving it in the garage during the deepest parts of the winter.

That was a very early model though (the Zenn), and I assume they've made improvements on all those fronts with more recent types of EVs.
Yes; I think with an EV's heavy weight, it would have more luck whenever it can go through deep snow, rather than over it.  :D   
Maybe Elon needs to consider a Tank mode.  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 09:01:50 PM
Who Sold The Most Plug-In Electric Cars In 2015? (It's Not Tesla Or Nissan)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101883_who-sold-the-most-plug-in-electric-cars-in-2015-its-not-tesla-or-nissan (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101883_who-sold-the-most-plug-in-electric-cars-in-2015-its-not-tesla-or-nissan)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 09:10:12 PM
Obama administration proposes $4B spend to tackle legal barriers to rapid rollout of self-driving cars
The WSJ reports that the Obama administration wants to invest $3.9B in crafting rules and policies to facilitate the rapid rollout of self-driving cars. This would take place at the federal level, ensuring consistent national laws rather than a patchwork of state-by-state regulations …
http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/self-driving-car-law/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/self-driving-car-law/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 15, 2016, 09:15:28 PM
Chrysler’s new hybrid minivan has a plug (but don’t tell anyone)
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chryslers-new-hybrid-minivan-has-a-plug-but-dont-tell-anyone/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2016, 01:08:23 AM
Saab (NEVS) inks a $1 billion deal to supply 20,000 electric cars to Volinco in China
National Electric Vehicle Sweden (Nevs), the firm that bought Saab’s assets out of bankruptcy in 2012, is singing some ridiculously big deals to supply electric vehicles to China lately. Last month, we reported on the company closing a massive 78-billion-yuan ($12 billion) deal to supply 150,000 electric cars to Chinese leasing firm Panda New Energy and now we learn from Reuters (via Autoblog) that Nevs signed a framework deal worth about 8.5 billion crowns ($1 billion) with China Volant Industry Co. (Volinco) for 20,000 electric cars.
http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/saab-nevs-1-billion-deal-20000-electric-cars-volinco-china/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/15/saab-nevs-1-billion-deal-20000-electric-cars-volinco-china/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 16, 2016, 08:05:52 AM
Sigmetnow & wili, I would definately vote for a mandatory requirement to study Swedish when registering on this forum!  ;D

Allthough Swedish is my native language I'm actually an immigrant, if you want to study something harder, try Finnish. I love languages and music and I love to play with words, but I can't really do that in another language.

To make this a bit more on topic I'll end with a real car in snow that I think I've seen more of than most, thanks to an old acquaintance who bought a lot of them from the Swedish defence.

Volvo valpen, "the puppy". This is the civilian version L3314, the military version was called Pltgb 903, later followed by Tgb 11, Volvo C303.
http://youtu.be/biLHYFLdfEA (http://youtu.be/biLHYFLdfEA)

A closer look on that puppy.
http://youtu.be/kdKo5ViFtKM (http://youtu.be/kdKo5ViFtKM)

There were/are also Tgb 13 & 20 with three axles. And there were also the amfibian version Tgb 12. That one never made it as costs were considered too high.
http://youtu.be/uROK5Q3K5ss (http://youtu.be/uROK5Q3K5ss)

Ok enough, the puppy is ugly, loud, uncomfortable and runs on petrol. But it runs almost everywhere and for ever. Maybe we should send one to Elon so that he could build a real car?  ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 16, 2016, 02:56:01 PM
U.S. Department of Transportation announces plans to:
- open the road to self-driving cars
- make anti-collision technology such as Automatic Emergency Braking mandatory in new cars
- and develop Vehicle-to-Vehicle transponders.

DOT Will Open The Road For Self-Driving Cars
http://news.investors.com/011416-789897-regulators-will-set-rules-for-autonomous-driving.htm (http://news.investors.com/011416-789897-regulators-will-set-rules-for-autonomous-driving.htm)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 18, 2016, 09:22:04 PM
U.S.:  The FTC is holding a workshop on "Auto Distribution: Current Issues & Future Trends" on Tuesday, January 19, 2016.  The event will be webcast.  More info here:
https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2016/01/auto-distribution-current-issues-future-trends (https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2016/01/auto-distribution-current-issues-future-trends)
A link to the webcast will be added to this page on the day of the workshop.

EVENT DESCRIPTION
The Federal Trade Commission will hold a one-day public workshop on January 19, 2016, 9 am - 5:30 pm, to explore competition and related issues in the context of state regulation of motor vehicle distribution, and to promote more informed analysis of how these regulations affect businesses and consumers. The workshop, which will consist of presentations and discussion, will focus on the following topics: (1) the regulation of dealer location; (2) laws relating to reimbursement for warranty services; (3) restrictions on manufacturers’ ability to engage in direct sales to consumers; and (4) new developments affecting motor vehicle distribution, such as autonomous vehicles, connected cars, and the rise of subscription-based automobile sharing services.

Tesla supporters may be particularly interested in the 2:15 pm EST (7:15 pm UTC) session on "Direct Distribution," an issue which prevents Tesla from making sales in some states:

"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 19, 2016, 03:28:38 AM
"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
What? In the land of the free? Why?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 19, 2016, 12:44:52 PM

What? In the land of the free? Why?

When vested interests collide with the principles the land of the free is quite flexible on principles it seems. Finland isn't that much better in this respect, I must add...
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2016, 03:06:45 PM
"Some states restrict the ability of car makers to sell their vehicles directly to the ultimate consumer, mandating the use of independent, franchised dealers. Several new entrants into automobile manufacturing have sought to bypass or overturn these restrictions and deal directly with the public. Are restrictions on direct distribution in this industry in the public interest? This panel will include experts on both sides of this contentious issue."
What? In the land of the free? Why?

The automobile dealership association is upset because the sell-direct-to-consumer model pretty much invalidates their whole business of filling their dealerships with unordered cars and selling them for as high a price as they can -- then making more money from every service visit.  (Most Teslas in the U.S. are ordered and sold via the Tesla website, with no haggling about price.  In some states, Tesla "showrooms" are not even permitted to discuss price, let alone take an order for a car.)

Dealerships that sell gas cars have little or no incentive to sell even their own electric models, which generally require more of a salesperson's time, and provide less profit.  And Tesla's ultra-convenient over-the-air update feature equates to fewer service visits and less income for dealers.  (It also greatly reduces planned obsolescence -- Tesla owners can essentially get a new car downloaded into their garage overnight!)
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100515_numerous-advantages-to-laws-mandating-car-dealers-tesla-inconvenient-nada-ceo (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100515_numerous-advantages-to-laws-mandating-car-dealers-tesla-inconvenient-nada-ceo)

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101178_most-car-dealers-are-lousy-at-selling-electric-cars-heres-why (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101178_most-car-dealers-are-lousy-at-selling-electric-cars-heres-why)

http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/18/10785834/tesla-upgrades-gm-super-cruise-bmw-self-parking (http://www.theverge.com/2016/1/18/10785834/tesla-upgrades-gm-super-cruise-bmw-self-parking)


But the FTC thinks competition is good:
The agency called the revisions to the state franchise laws nothing less than "protectionism" for auto dealers that is "likely harming...competition and consumers."

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101743_tesla-to-testify-at-ftc-hearing-on-auto-dealer-franchise-laws (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1101743_tesla-to-testify-at-ftc-hearing-on-auto-dealer-franchise-laws)

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098276_ftc-calls-michigans-tesla-ban-protectionism-for-dealers (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1098276_ftc-calls-michigans-tesla-ban-protectionism-for-dealers)


Some Tesla owners have crossed state lines to help out in states that ban Tesla stores or showrooms.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095124_minnesota-tesla-owners-show-banned-model-s-to-iowa-electric-car-shoppers (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095124_minnesota-tesla-owners-show-banned-model-s-to-iowa-electric-car-shoppers)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 19, 2016, 07:31:06 PM
Solar-powered plane "Solar Impulse 2" to Continue Around the World Flight in April 2016
http://compositesmanufacturingmagazine.com/2016/01/solar-impulse-team-reveals-plans-to-continue-world-flight-in-april/ (http://compositesmanufacturingmagazine.com/2016/01/solar-impulse-team-reveals-plans-to-continue-world-flight-in-april/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 20, 2016, 05:14:53 AM

What? In the land of the free? Why?

When vested interests collide with the principles the land of the free is quite flexible on principles it seems. Finland isn't that much better in this respect, I must add...

Yes, perfect competition is an illusion. What I reacted to was that this sounded like state legislation. Legislated oligopoly to protect investments. And with Sigmetnows qoute from the FTC it is.
Ah well, we have our own criminals, that every Swede is supposed to own, Vattenfall. But that's a different topic. :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: sidd on January 20, 2016, 06:11:19 AM
Vattenfall takes a lot of flak, and some deservedly. But i must say that they have some of the clearest lifecycle cost assessments. Those may not be accurate, but at least it lets you understand their analysis.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 20, 2016, 09:15:25 AM
There are good and bad things with everything, sidd. That goes for Vattenfall as well.

But they have a lot to answer for and they aren't stupid. Like when they signed a contract in Germany, in which they would be held accountable in case of a larger nuclear accident. They solved that little problem by changing the company form for their German subsidiary company so that the Swedish company could not be held accountable. Who pays?
They promised clean energy with CCS. Who pays?
They purchased Nuon in 2009 for nearly 100 billion SEK. Who pays?

Vattenfall is owned by the Swedish people and should be controlled by our government. Sweden is regarded by many as one of the greenest western nations. We even regard ourselves as a leading nation when it comes to mitigation and we have high ambitions for the future.

We already had nuclear and hydro, so those were simple mitigation tasks. If we and Vattenfall would have spent some more of that money on alternative energy, then we as a nation would even be able to get rid of our old nuclear plants.

Vattenfail emits 88,4 million tonnes/year abroad while Swedens internal emissions are roughly 50. We bought more cars than ever in 2015. We import more oil. Our emissions abroad due to consumption are increasing.

I call that hypocrisy.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 22, 2016, 05:14:37 AM
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/ (http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/)
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 04:14:41 PM
Well, this is timely ;) :  How to burn less gas, without buying a new car (even if you don't change the way you drive).

Low-Rolling Resistance Tires Can Save Fuel
http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel (http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 04:30:26 PM
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/ (http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/)
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.

As Elon Musk has said, the ultimate test of an autonomous driving system is that it must be safer than human drivers.  The Tesla Autopilot is already showing that to be the case (anecdotally, if not statistically-significantly yet).  This despite really stupid drivers like the one who engaged autopilot, then climbed into the back seat.  :o  And posted a video of it on YouTube. ::)   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: folke_kelm on January 22, 2016, 04:35:59 PM
Well, yhat is very easy for every owner of any car. Take the slimmest tires which are allowed on your car, inflate the to a pressure for fully loaded car look whatt your mpg will be (for european readers l/100Km or swedish (sleepy) dl/mil).
I did this with our 3 last cars, Volvo S90, VW Jetta 2l Fsi and Passat TDi. Every car took significant less fuel with overinflated slim tires, most significant the Jetta with over 1l/100Km less fuelconsumtion.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: magnamentis on January 22, 2016, 05:18:10 PM
yeah and what will think the relatives of killed pedestrians that were only hit because the breaking distance is significantly longer with overinflated and/or slimmer tires? i don't think that saving fuel at the expense of safety margins is a valid option and then this is a typical example of closing one gap by opening a new one while when al this argument is narrowed down to the roots the real cause for almost any environmental problem is over population and artificial underpricing of energy consuming gadgets and tools.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 22, 2016, 06:34:30 PM
Are self-driving cars legal? And if so, can I drive home drunk in one?
http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/ (http://grist.org/business-technology/are-self-driving-cars-legal-and-if-so-can-i-drive-home-drunk-in-one/)
And then I realized the most awesome, unexpected thing: The cars Google, Apple, Tesla, General Motors et al are inventing represent a bold leap forward in technology, sure — but it’s also a bold leap backward. All these companies are reinventing the horse.

As Elon Musk has said, the ultimate test of an autonomous driving system is that it must be safer than human drivers.  The Tesla Autopilot is already showing that to be the case (anecdotally, if not statistically-significantly yet).  This despite really stupid drivers like the one who engaged autopilot, then climbed into the back seat.  :o  And posted a video of it on YouTube. ::)   ;D

Yes, it must be safer than humans.
But again, how about winter? These are really good conditions for winter driving, from Iceland:
http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58 (http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58)

Iceland also has some other not so auto pilot friendly stuff falling from the skies occasionally. :)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 06:58:05 PM
Everyone talks to their car.  But this one replies!

Watch a Tesla Model S owner talk to his car with Amazon Echo [Video]
http://electrek.co/2016/01/22/tesla-model-s-amazon-echo-alexa/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/22/tesla-model-s-amazon-echo-alexa/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: solartim27 on January 22, 2016, 07:44:09 PM
Low-Rolling Resistance Tires Can Save Fuel
http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel (http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel)
I've had very poor lifespans of our LRR tires.  We needed to replace our OEM tires on the Leaf at 30k miles, I forget about our Prius, but it was not much better.  I have not done the math, but as LRR tires are more expensive, my hunch is the savings don't add up.  I hope I'm wrong.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 07:46:28 PM
...
Yes, it must be safer than humans.
But again, how about winter? These are really good conditions for winter driving, from Iceland:
http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58 (http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58)

Iceland also has some other not so auto pilot friendly stuff falling from the skies occasionally. :)

Of course, the system is not perfect yet.  Neither was this driver....   ;)
A couple notes:
- Version 7.1 is current ;) ; the video shows Version 7.0, apparently right after it was downloaded. 
- There are many reports of Autopilot being skittish at the beginning, but after a few days or trips it behaved much better and was able to smoothly navigate roads it could not do previously.  Is there a later video from this driver?
- The car "sees" using GPS, and the experience of all other Teslas that have been on that road -- not just with the cameras. 
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Neven on January 22, 2016, 07:50:22 PM
Short lifespan also means a lot of fine particles ending up in the environment and eventually in everything at the top of the food chain.

I tend to pump my tyres just a notch above the specs. It does save fuel.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 07:51:09 PM
Low-Rolling Resistance Tires Can Save Fuel
http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel (http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel)
I've had very poor lifespans of our LRR tires.  We needed to replace our OEM tires on the Leaf at 30k miles, I forget about our Prius, but it was not much better.  I have not done the math, but as LRR tires are more expensive, my hunch is the savings don't add up.  I hope I'm wrong.

That's a good point.  I wonder how the emissions from tire manufacturing compare with the emissions from burning fuel?  (LRR tires are just part of the total cost of an EV.)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 22, 2016, 08:16:05 PM
...
Yes, it must be safer than humans.
But again, how about winter? These are really good conditions for winter driving, from Iceland:
http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58 (http://youtu.be/ud8JF-2vb58)

Iceland also has some other not so auto pilot friendly stuff falling from the skies occasionally. :)

Of course, the system is not perfect yet.  Neither was this driver....   ;)
A couple notes:
- Version 7.1 is current ;) ; the video shows Version 7.0, apparently right after it was downloaded. 
- There are many reports of Autopilot being skittish at the beginning, but after a few days or trips it behaved much better and was able to smoothly navigate roads it could not do previously.  Is there a later video from this driver?
- The car "sees" using GPS, and the experience of all other Teslas that have been on that road -- not just with the cameras.

According to Teslaclubsweden, 7.1 only does a bit better on roads with poor or no lane markings and that it's still useless in Nordic conditions with snow and with no clear markings of the road. I believe them. ;)

Edit; sorry, I just had to find that article I read earlier. Here it is:
http://teslaclubsweden.se/battre-autopilot-i-7-1/ (http://teslaclubsweden.se/battre-autopilot-i-7-1/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 22, 2016, 09:05:45 PM
Well, I guess you'll just have to wait for 7.2, then.   ;D
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Yuha on January 23, 2016, 01:12:54 AM
Ford claims they successfully tested autonomous driving in snowy conditions:

http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35280632 (http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-35280632)

Ford said it had instead programmed the Lidar sensors to detect landmarks above the ground, such as buildings and road signs.

The car could then compare this information to an existing high-resolution map of the road - generated by autonomous cars during more favourable weather- stored in its computer.

This allowed the car to navigate the road even when visibility was poor.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 23, 2016, 05:43:23 AM
I'll be waiting Sigmetnow. :)
And as for Ford, bring it here. ;)
Edit; that road sign in pic1 isn't standard height, it's a tall one.

On a more serious note as a former nerd(?), I do believe autonomous cars are possible. But I need an EV with a respectable size and range, the rest doesn't matter. If not, I would have to use two cars. I don't like that equation since neither I, nor nature can afford it.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 26, 2016, 12:11:39 AM
VW Diesel Cheating An 'Open Secret' In Engine Group: Report
A German newspaper has reported that the use of "defeat device" software to cheat on U.S. emissions laws was widespread knowledge within the diesel-engine group at Volkswagen headquarters in Wolfsburg, Germany.

And, it said, one whistleblower involved in the deception had alerted a senior manager outside the department as far back as 2011.

That manager apparently did nothing, however, and the cheating continued until the company admitted its deception to U.S. regulators last September.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102020_vw-diesel-cheating-an-open-secret-in-engine-group-report (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102020_vw-diesel-cheating-an-open-secret-in-engine-group-report)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2016, 07:54:45 AM
Used to be made in Sweden, now it's just:
Volvo - Made By BAU.
http://youtu.be/DUDx6NEqdJQ?t=3m25s (http://youtu.be/DUDx6NEqdJQ?t=3m25s)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2016, 07:57:14 AM
The Quest for Power, and how it ends.  ;)
http://youtu.be/JLudAJ0Jj0U (http://youtu.be/JLudAJ0Jj0U)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 27, 2016, 07:44:49 PM
VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade
When looking at the emissions issue of the past few weeks, Müller explained to the EU parliamentarians in Brussels: “We are using the current crisis to fundamentally realign the Group. I strongly feel we now have the chance to build a new and better Volkswagen.”
http://electrek.co/2016/01/27/vws-brands-20-new-electric-vehicles-2020/ (http://electrek.co/2016/01/27/vws-brands-20-new-electric-vehicles-2020/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on January 28, 2016, 03:25:05 PM
Well, this is timely ;) :  How to burn less gas, without buying a new car (even if you don't change the way you drive).

Low-Rolling Resistance Tires Can Save Fuel
http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel (http://www.consumerreports.org/fuel-economy/low-rolling-resistance-tires-can-save-fuel)

I have been running these types of tires for many years.  The fuel savings offset at least 2/3's of the cost of the tires.  But in an ergonomic sense most people do not like them as they are very hard.  So you feel the roughness of the road much more and they do not have the grip or traction of softer tires - so they are a little less safe.  There are always tradeoffs.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 28, 2016, 03:52:20 PM
Motiv Power Systems and Creative Bus Sales partner to build an electric school bus.
"It has a passenger capacity of up to 48 and a range of up to 85 miles, and can charge to 50 percent capacity in 2 hours."
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/motiv-power-systems-and-creative-bus-sales-partner-to-build-electric-school-bus/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 29, 2016, 09:56:51 PM
VW Says Defeat Software Legal In Europe
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102114_vw-bites-back-doubts-diesel-whistleblower-says-defeat-software-legal-in-europe (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102114_vw-bites-back-doubts-diesel-whistleblower-says-defeat-software-legal-in-europe)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2016, 02:14:55 PM
San Diego Gas & Electric (SDGE) to Install 3,500 EV Charging Stations, many in multi-family communities

SDGE will install thousands of electric vehicle charging stations throughout San Diego and Orange counties under a pilot program approved by California Public Utilities Commission.
The company will install charging stations at up to 350 businesses and multi-family communities throughout the region, with 10 chargers at each location for a total of 3,500 separate chargers. SDG&E will install at least 10 percent of the chargers in disadvantaged communities.
...
Fifty percent of SDG&E’s customers live in multi-family communities. Without access to vehicle charging, there is virtually no way for these residents to ever become part of the solution to significantly reduce air pollution or to create real personal savings by eliminating gasoline bills. SDG&E’s initiative will help address gaps like this in the market and ensure charging is accessible to all customers.

SDG&E’s project will overcome many current obstacles to EV growth and reassure local EV drivers that they will have a place to charge their vehicles. In addition to expanding access to EVs, the pilot features special rates that encourage EV drivers to charge their cars when electricity supply, including renewable energy, is plentiful and energy prices are low.  With rates encouraging off-peak charging, vehicles will be efficiently integrated onto the grid, helping to avoid on-peak charging that drives the need to build more power plants and other electric infrastructure.

California has led the way to de-carbonizing electricity over the last several decades, helping to pave the way for the modernization of the transportation sector.  With SDG&E’s energy portfolio being made up of 33 percent renewable energy and no coal, drivers will be plugging into one of the cleanest electric grids in the country.  Furthermore, with the pilot’s special rate encouraging drivers to charge exactly at the times of day when solar power is at its height, customers will literally be driving on sunshine.
http://electriccarsreport.com/2016/01/sdge-to-install-3500-ev-charging-stations/ (http://electriccarsreport.com/2016/01/sdge-to-install-3500-ev-charging-stations/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 31, 2016, 05:18:28 PM
Oh, the irony.... ;D

Chinese EV-maker establishes R&D center in Detroit
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/chinese-ev-maker-establishes-rd-center-in-detroit/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 01, 2016, 04:23:59 PM
Yet in China we see this:  Sort of reminds one of what is going on in the US.

...Take China for example, where the strategist sees the oil plunge helping to fuel a boom in SUV sales: "Moreover, the low oil price is encouraging Chinese consumers to buy increasingly larger cars. Sales of SUVs, the heaviest passenger vehicles category, are up 60 percent year-on-year in the last three months, while overall passenger vehicle sales are growing robustly at 22 percent."

Just like in the US the growth in sales of large ICE vehicles (due to low fuel prices) is vastly outstripping EV sales and fully wiping out any possible gains they would entail if they were replacing ICE vehicles.  The problem grows worse not better.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/bofa-the-oil-crash-is-kicking-off-one-of-the-largest-wealth-transfers-in-human-history (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/bofa-the-oil-crash-is-kicking-off-one-of-the-largest-wealth-transfers-in-human-history)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on February 01, 2016, 04:30:26 PM
CAFE fuel efficiency standards in the USA regulate the require fleet mpg average. When more gas guzzlers are sold they have to be balanced with more sales of vehicles that have low or zero fuel usage. This is one of the main factors driving hybrid and pure EV development in the USA.

So the irony is low gasoline prices may be promoting the development and sale of plug-in vehicles.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 02, 2016, 05:00:11 PM
Chicago Transit Authority To Add Dozens Of Electric Buses After Successful Tests
After over a year of testing, Chicago is ready to commit to all-electric buses.

The Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) took delivery of two electric buses in 2014, and found them satisfactory.  So the city now plans to purchase 20 to 30 all-electric buses over the next few years, as part of an overall modernization of its fleet.
...
No significant mechanical issues cropped up during testing, according to the CTA. The buses' battery packs are intended to last their entire service lives--meaning about 12 years.

Officials claim the emissions reductions from operating the two buses is the equivalent of removing 14 internal-combustion cars from the road, and adds up to $39,000 in health-benefit savings.

In an "average year of use," the CTA expects each bus to save $25,000 in fuel, and $55,000 in public-health costs.
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102130_chicago-transit-authority-to-add-dozens-of-electric-buses-after-successful-tests (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102130_chicago-transit-authority-to-add-dozens-of-electric-buses-after-successful-tests)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 02, 2016, 05:05:47 PM
Tesla opens orders for the Model X in China
There are reasons to believe the Model X could become a popular vehicle in China, where there are significant health risks due to air pollution, which could make the Model X’s unconventional air filter an important asset for the vehicle’s success in the country. It is about 10 times larger than average car air filtering system and during the unveiling of the vehicle, Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed it is “several hundreds time” better at filtering particles than a conventional system.

He even compared the level of air quality in the car to an operating room. At max capacity, the system can detect any viruses or spores – making it bioweapon/apocalypse proof, complete with a “biodefence mode button”, which could be useful even when just sitting in Beijing traffic.
http://electrek.co/2016/02/02/tesla-orders-model-x-china-red-new-year/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/02/tesla-orders-model-x-china-red-new-year/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2016, 03:56:11 PM
easyJet to Trial Hybrid Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Aircraft
The hybrid plane concept utilises a hydrogen fuel cell stowed in the aircraft’s hold. This innovative zero-emissions system allows energy to be captured as the aircraft brakes on landing and is used to charge the system’s lightweight batteries when the aircraft is on the ground (much like the Kinetic Energy Recovery System (KERS) found in Formula 1 cars).

The energy can then be used by the aircraft – for example when taxiing – without needing to use their jet engines.  Due to the high frequency and short sector lengths of easyJet’s operations, around 4% of the airline’s total fuel consumed annually is used when the airline’s aircraft are taxiing.  easyJet’s aircraft average 20 minutes of taxi time per flight – the equivalent of around four million miles a year – akin to travelling to the moon and back eight times.

Each aircraft would have motors in their main wheels and electronics and system controllers would give pilots total control of the aircraft’s speed, direction and braking during taxi operations. The system would therefore reduce, if not remove altogether, the need for tugs to manoeuvre aircraft in and out of stands, delivering more efficient turnaround times and increased on time performance.
http://electriccarsreport.com/2016/02/easyjet-to-trial-hydrogen-fuel-cell-aircraft/ (http://electriccarsreport.com/2016/02/easyjet-to-trial-hydrogen-fuel-cell-aircraft/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2016, 03:58:46 PM
Green Car Reports offers their five-year forecast.

Top Six Trends In Plug-In Electric Cars Through 2020
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102160_top-six-trends-in-plug-in-electric-cars-through-2020 (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102160_top-six-trends-in-plug-in-electric-cars-through-2020)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 03, 2016, 05:16:57 PM
Paris to add 1000 electric scooters to its Vélib’ and AutoLib petrol-free transportation army
http://electrek.co/2016/02/03/paris-1000-electric-scooters-velib-autolib/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/03/paris-1000-electric-scooters-velib-autolib/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 08, 2016, 03:37:13 PM
Tesla to offer free charging at home and power its Supercharger network with 100% renewable energy in Sweden
Under the new partnership, which is the first of its kind for Tesla, Model S owners will enjoy free charging at home for up to 45,000 km (28,000 miles) over a 3 year period.

Tesla Director for Nordic countries Peter Bardenfleth-Hansen said that the partnership will serve as a model for Tesla’s future associations with electric utilities:

“Skellefteå Kraft is a highly sustainable brand that really stands out approaching the world’s contemporary challenges. It requires motivation, creativity and perseverance. We like partners with a strong maverick profile. With this agreement, our Swedish customers can enjoy even more environmentally friendly electricity free of charge, whilst we at Tesla can look forward to our first energy company partnership that can serve as a role model for how to build sustainable partnerships in the future.”
http://electrek.co/2016/02/08/tesla-free-charging-home-sweden/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/08/tesla-free-charging-home-sweden/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on February 08, 2016, 04:43:15 PM
That's true.
In practice this means that if you own a Tesla and also select Skellefteå Kraft as your electricity supplier, you will receive a discount of 154 SEK per month on your electricity bill.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2016, 04:36:04 PM
EU Commission Accepts 'Flawed' Emission Rules For On-Road Testing
http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102258_eu-commission-accepts-flawed-emission-rules-for-on-road-testing (http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1102258_eu-commission-accepts-flawed-emission-rules-for-on-road-testing)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2016, 05:25:45 PM
U.N. Panel Seeks First-Ever Greenhouse Gas Standards for Planes
http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/u-n-panel-seeks-first-ever-greenhouse-gas-standards-planes-n514301 (http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/u-n-panel-seeks-first-ever-greenhouse-gas-standards-planes-n514301)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 09, 2016, 08:37:55 PM
Porsche is spending €1B, hiring 1000 workers to become an electric carmaker
http://electrek.co/2016/02/09/porsche-is-spending-e1b-hiring-1000-workers-to-become-an-electric-carmaker/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/09/porsche-is-spending-e1b-hiring-1000-workers-to-become-an-electric-carmaker/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2016, 01:24:53 AM
The Tesla Fourth Quarter / 2015 financial results conference call just ended. 

Cash flow changed from negative for each of the first three quarters of 2015, to strongly positive in quarter four.  Still on track to reveal the ($35,000 US) Model 3 at the end of next month, with production starting the end of 2017.  Gigafactory ramp up is proceeding, and battery production should not be a constraint for the Model 3.  The Freemont, CA factory should be able to produce the 500,000 cars a year Musk wants by 2020.

[Live Blog] Tesla’s financial results Q4 2015 and conference call
http://electrek.co/2016/02/10/live-blog-tesla-q4-2015/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/10/live-blog-tesla-q4-2015/)

Orders for Tesla all-electric cars are up in 2016, displacing an almost equal number of large luxury gas car sales:
Tesla shows how the Model S is totally disrupting the Large Luxury car market in the US
http://electrek.co/2016/02/10/tesla-shows-how-the-model-s-is-totally-disrupting-the-large-luxury-car-market-in-the-us/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/10/tesla-shows-how-the-model-s-is-totally-disrupting-the-large-luxury-car-market-in-the-us/)

From the shareholder letter:
Additionally, we continue to see no perceptible impact to our order growth from the change in the price of gasoline as our order rates have continued to increase even as the price of gasoline has fallen. In fact, our customers tell us they value a Tesla vehicle more for its superior performance, technology, safety, lower environmental impact and style than for its ability to save money on fuel.
The Q4 shareholder letter is here:
http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/599848170x0x874449/945B9CF5-86DA-4C35-B03C-4892824F058D/Q4_15_Tesla_Update_Letter.pdf (http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/599848170x0x874449/945B9CF5-86DA-4C35-B03C-4892824F058D/Q4_15_Tesla_Update_Letter.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 11, 2016, 11:11:32 AM
Tesla get a mention in Robin Berg's recent TEDx talk in Utrecht:

Robin Berg’s TEDx talk on “A new local energy and transport system” (http://www.v2g.co.uk/2016/02/robin-bergs-tedx-talk-on-a-new-local-energy-and-transport-system/)

http://youtu.be/STJH7UhPduw (http://youtu.be/STJH7UhPduw)

Tomorrow your car will run electric. The day after it will power your house. It will be 100% renewable, it will be 100% clean, and it will be the end of coal, oil and gas.

Let's go!

See also: https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/697722104213540864 (https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/697722104213540864)

Any chance of a "Retweet" or three?
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2016, 02:50:11 PM
Reservations for the $35,000 Tesla Model 3 will begin, globally, in stores March 31 -- and on-line April 1.
The reservation amount is only going to be $1,000.

That's $35,000 before incentives.

Musk Tweetstorms Model 3 signup details: March 31st stores, April 1st online, $1000 deposit, no Signature series, more
This is going to be pandemonium – well as much as the auto industry has ever seen.
http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/musk-tweetstorms-model-3-signup-details-march-31st-stores-april-1st-online-1000-deposit-no-signature-series-more/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/musk-tweetstorms-model-3-signup-details-march-31st-stores-april-1st-online-1000-deposit-no-signature-series-more/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 11, 2016, 03:10:31 PM
Musk Tweetstorms Model 3 signup details: March 31st stores, April 1st online, $1000 deposit

I'm afraid I am unable to resist temptation  :-[

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/697784188309782529
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2016, 06:56:39 PM
Greater incentive offered for lower-priced EVs.

Ontario is increasing its EV incentives up to $10,000 per vehicle, but not for Tesla
http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/ontario-ev-incentives-tesla/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/ontario-ev-incentives-tesla/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 11, 2016, 08:46:41 PM
About that $7,500 U.S. tax credit for EVs:

An early Tesla Model 3 reservation could determine if you get the $7,500 US tax credit or not
http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/tesla-model-3-reservation-us-tax-credit/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/11/tesla-model-3-reservation-us-tax-credit/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: ghoti on February 11, 2016, 11:56:31 PM
Happy that Ontario is increasing the EV rebates but I think the increase in rebate is about half the price increase expected as a result of the devaluation of the Canadian dollar. Rebates increase about 17%. Dollar declined about 30% this year. No EVs are made in Canada yet. Pacifica van coming soon.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on February 12, 2016, 04:57:28 AM
Model 3 will probably topple over 400.000 SEK here for a useful version (as discussed earlier). That's roughly 48.000 dollars.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2016, 05:57:14 PM
Model 3 will probably topple over 400.000 SEK here for a useful version (as discussed earlier). That's roughly 48.000 dollars.

On the bright side, Elon said the Model 3 orders requesting the most options will be produced first....  ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 12, 2016, 05:57:45 PM
Here's a link to an audio recording of the Tesla Q4 conference call and Q&A:
http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/nswqxjz3 (http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/nswqxjz3)

And here's a transcript:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3885766-tesla-motors-tsla-elon-reeve-musk-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript (http://seekingalpha.com/article/3885766-tesla-motors-tsla-elon-reeve-musk-q4-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sleepy on February 13, 2016, 07:12:40 AM
Model 3 will probably topple over 400.000 SEK here for a useful version (as discussed earlier). That's roughly 48.000 dollars.

On the bright side, Elon said the Model 3 orders requesting the most options will be produced first....  ;)
:)
The Renault Clio Electrique from the late nineties still works. The lack of range was included in their optionless package too. ;)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 13, 2016, 03:08:28 PM
Elon Musk’s Daring Pays Off For Tesla
Astoundingly, Tesla is now fully in the big leagues of luxury sedans. A few take-aways with broad relevance:

-This is an industry that was supposed to be impossible for outsiders to enter. The capital requirements are so large and economies of scale so important that the global giants seemed to hold all the cards. In fact, far from permitting new entrants, the industry has been consolidating into a few behemoths. Yet Tesla, founded 13 years ago, is now an important competitor in the most profitable segment of the business. It achieved the impossible by pioneering a fundamentally different technology and using a different business model that eliminates dealerships. If this industry can be disrupted by a startup competitor, any industry can be.
http://fortune.com/2016/02/12/elon-musk-tesla/ (http://fortune.com/2016/02/12/elon-musk-tesla/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2016, 05:02:31 PM
A California transit authority goes 100% electric with order for 85 BYD electric buses
The Antelope Valley Transit Authority (AVTA), which serves some 450,000 residents in the northern Los Angeles metro region, says it has taken a step toward becoming the first 100% electric public transit fleet in the country, ordering up to 85 BYD electric buses over a five-year period.

BYD will deliver a variety of e-bus models, including a 40-foot low-floor transit bus, a 60-foot low-floor articulated bus and a 45-foot commuter coach, each with a range of more than 160 miles. BYD will build the e-buses at its facility in Lancaster, California.

AVTA is also installing a wireless charging system from Utah-based WAVE, which will extend the fleet’s range to be able to serve the agency’s longest rural routes.

AVTA expects to save more than $46 million over the life of the buses compared to legacy diesel vehicles – approximately $46,000 per bus per year.

“I’m pleased to chair a transit agency as forward-thinking as AVTA that has the political will to do something no other transit agency in the country has done yet – go all-electric,” said Marvin Christ, Chairman of the AVTA Board of Directors. “There are multiple benefits to electrifying our bus fleet, from creating jobs and eliminating harmful air pollutants, to reducing dependence on foreign oil.”
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/california-transit-authority-goes-100-electric-with-order-for-85-byd-electric-buses/
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2016, 05:10:08 PM
US Falls Behind Europe and China in Global Plug-in Vehicle Market
To influence consumer behavior, governments can choose between positive and negative incentives. In the US, we offer discounts for plug-in purchases and special perks like access to carpool lanes for solo drivers, but the US government has been reluctant to discourage drivers of less efficient vehicles with higher taxes either at the time of purchase or at the pump. This helps explain why sport utility vehicles accounted for nearly half the vehicles purchased here last year, while EV sales were stagnant.
http://www.plugincars.com/us-falls-behind-europe-and-china-global-plug-vehicle-market-131369.html (http://www.plugincars.com/us-falls-behind-europe-and-china-global-plug-vehicle-market-131369.html)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 17, 2016, 05:20:01 PM
New report examines responses from major car companies about addressing climate risk.
In the wake of the VW scandal – which saw huge losses to shareholder value – a group of investors with over £625bn in assets under management queried the largest automotive manufacturers on issues related to climate risk to their businesses, in particular, critical greenhouse gas emissions standards evolving in the US and the EU. This initiative was coordinated by UK non-profits ShareAction and InfluenceMap. This report reviews the responses received from the companies, outlining where further information could be requested, and offers recommendations for how investors could incorporate this issue into a broader strategy for managing climate risk.
http://influencemap.org/site/data/000/168/IM_Report_Automotive_Feb_2016.pdf (http://influencemap.org/site/data/000/168/IM_Report_Automotive_Feb_2016.pdf)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2016, 02:53:42 PM
Almost half of GM’s propulsion division is now working on electric and alternative drivetrains
While announcing the renaming of its GM Powertrain to GM Global Propulsion Systems this week, the automaker gave us a glimpse at the structure of the division and disclosed that almost half of its engineers are now working on electric and alternative propulsion systems.

In a press release, GM says that the new naming scheme is to formally reflect “the industry trends and its evolution over the years”. The company highlights the fact that it is expanding capabilities, and especially mentions the all-electric drivetrain of Chevrolet Bolt EV and the Voltec propulsion system in the Chevrolet Volt .

Though it would be fair to mention that the GM developed the Bolt and its drivetrain through a partnership with LG, which will manufacture a surprising number of critical parts of the Bolt.

GM also confirmed that more than 8,600 people now work at the propulsion division.
http://electrek.co/2016/02/18/gm-propulsion-division-electric/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/18/gm-propulsion-division-electric/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 19, 2016, 08:00:04 PM
The Koch brothers are planning an offensive against electric vehicles through a multimillion-dollar lobbying campaign
According to the Huffington Post, the Kochs are teaming up with James Mahoney, a member of their company’s board, and lobbyist Charlie Drevna, who until recently was the head of the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers. Their mission will be to “make the public aware of all the benefits of petroleum-based transportation fuels”.

The group has been courting oil companies to raise money for the lobbying effort in “changing the energy narrative” in the US. The report doesn’t say exactly when the group will officially launch its offensive, but it will probably be around this spring or summer.
http://electrek.co/2016/02/19/koch-brothers-against-electric-vehicles/ (http://electrek.co/2016/02/19/koch-brothers-against-electric-vehicles/)
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: JimD on February 19, 2016, 11:14:42 PM
Re Tesla:  I can't resist.

I believe that Tesla will be bankrupt by 2020 and sold off or out of business.  There are a lot of others out there that think so as well and there is nothing in the latest financial statement which would change that outlook.

Some examples:

On January 19, Tesla’s general counsel Todd Maron participated in a panel discussion at the Federal Trade Commission on reforming the laws governing state automotive markets and casually made a jaw-dropping claim: “we make money from one thing: car sales and car sales alone.”  The truth is exactly the opposite. The company has always lost money on every vehicle sold, making its money by participating in government programs, most significantly by selling California Zero Emissions Vehicle credits.  And declining oil prices have made the case for electric cars less connected to economic reality than ever.
 
Last year I laid out the case that Tesla is more in the business of harvesting prodigious subsidies from governments than in selling vehicles in an article at National Review. ...

Tesla owes its survival to subsidies from taxpayers, who are usually less well-heeled than its plutocratic customers; this Silicon Valley start-up has gotten $4.9 billion in state and federal support over the past decade, according to a May 30 Los Angeles Times report.” ....

https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/01/tesla-tells-tales-at-the-ftc (https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2016/01/tesla-tells-tales-at-the-ftc)

Don't mistake what it says above.  Tesla survives on taxpayer subsidies which are provided by folks whom the vast majority of can't afford to buy one of their cars.  It is a case of the regular guy getting screwed so some rich puke can run around in a ev sports car.  There is nothing right about that situation.

Re the 4th quarter results ballyhooed in the posts above.  Telsa lost $1.29/share in the 4th qtr.  And it lost money in every quarter in 2015 and each quarter was worse than the one before.  It has lost billions so far and that is with the $4.9 billion in subsidies it has received.

...Uncertainty about Tesla's prospects revolves around some short-term concerns and a broader long-term threat from the old-line auto companies of Detroit, Germany and Japan.

In the short run, investors are watching for Musk to say how quickly Tesla can ramp up production of the new Model X SUV, which launched in September. 

In January, Tesla said it delivered a total of 17,400 vehicles in the fourth quarter, just above the low end of its forecast. Of those, only 208 were Model X vehicles.

Analysts also are questioning whether Tesla's long-promised moderately priced car, the Model 3, will be delayed beyond its current projected 2017 launch date.

Questions about the Model 3 are more pointed now that General Motors Co (GM.N) has confirmed it expects its $35,000 Chevy Bolt electric car to launch at the end of this year.

German competitors also are speeding up plans to offer luxury electric cars. Established automakers were slow to respond to Tesla's technological lead in offering customers new features via over-the-air software upgrades, for example, but others are now investing to catch up.

Tesla now faces "sleepy (auto) giants waking up," according to analysts Adam Hull and Paul Kratz from German bank Berenberg, who initiated coverage of Tesla with a "sell" rating.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-preview-idUSKCN0VH27O (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-preview-idUSKCN0VH27O)

Tesla has been playing in the luxury car market for some time now and has been unable to make any money at all.  It has lost a lot.  But that is competing with Porsche, BMW and the like in the +$100K market.  This market is not a significant factor in the auto business as a whole and is totally irrelevant in regards to dealing with climate change.  We don't need any stinking luxury cars period whether they are ev or ice.  F**K the rich guys toys.  Not to mention that BMW and Porsche will enter the ev market to compete with them and this will hurt Tesla a lot as Tesla has a history of quality problems which they do not have.

But now Musk wants to play with the big boys in the regular car market.  But all the factors weigh against him there.  He will not beat them to the market as they already have lower cost ev's and will have a host of models and options long before Tesla hits the market.  And they are configured to actually be able to pretty much break even or even make a profit on them due to their vastly superior efficiency in manufacturing and purchasing of materials.  Not to mention their superior ability to put the cars in front of the consumer through their dealer networks.

All of the big car companies will be offering significant numbers of ev models in the near term and Tesla will no longer be able to make these crazy claims that they are running at a loss in the luxury market in order to break into the low end markets.  Since it is unlikely that they can sell their model 3 for a profit the writing is pretty much on the wall.  They are not likely to survive long term.

...Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, a longtime proponent of buying Tesla shares, doesn't believe Tesla's Model 3 will hit the streets until late 2018—at least a year after Musk has promised it would appear. [insert by me-Tesla has always been late]
To make matters worse for cash-strapped Tesla enthusiasts, the first cars off the production line probably won't be the sticker-price base model. Tesla likes to launch new products with a feature-rich Signature Series, which in the case of the Model X would cost about 75 percent more than the base model. For the Model 3, Jonas anticipates an initial average price of at least $60,000 before tax incentives.
Here's where the road to a $25,000 Tesla gets a little twisted. The U.S. federal tax incentive for electric cars won't be around forever. It is designed to help ease carmakers into the electric market. The credit is applied to the first 200,000 electric sales for each new manufacturer; then the value of the incentive slowly fades to zero over about a year and a half.
Tesla is on track to reach its 200,000th sale around the middle of 2018. If Model 3 deliveries don't start until the end of 2018, and a higher-priced Signature Series soaks up the incentives for 2019, then by the time a "mass-market" buyer gets a shot at a lower-priced Model 3, the incentives could be gone. In that case, a $35,000 Tesla would just be a $35,000 Tesla. In the meantime, however, Chevy has plans to start selling its 200-mile-range Bolt for $30,000 by the end of 2016, which would mean beating Tesla to its goal of an affordable long-range electric car by a significant margin....

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/will-the-tesla-model-3-really-sell-for-25-000 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-09/will-the-tesla-model-3-really-sell-for-25-000)

Tesla is a great stock market play at times and if one is nimbal.  But they are far from a sound company in financial terms and their long term prospects are not bright.
Title: Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 20, 2016, 05:44:24 PM
Your Rigged VW Will Get Fixed Sometime Between Now and 2048
Volkswagen AG will need to speed up its recall of rigged diesel engines in Germany dramatically to finish within a year as planned, because at the current rate the process won’t be done before 2048.

Since starting repairs to 2.4 million affected cars in its home country three weeks ago, Volkswagen has fixed 4,300 vehicles. That’s a rate of about 1,400 autos a week, when more than 46,000 would need to be processed weekly for the company to finish within a year.

The sluggish pace at which the recall has progressed highlights the huge logistical challenge facing the company: Fixes must be devised for different cars types and engines, customers notified, appointments scheduled. Still, Volkswagen is a step ahead in Germany compared with the impasse it’s enduring in the U.S., where authorities have yet to sign off on a technical fix after throwing out previous propos