Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Laurent on October 09, 2013, 04:11:00 PM

Title: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on October 09, 2013, 04:11:00 PM
About svalbard bears...
Just to point the heat flux coming north of svalbard !
It doesn't seem to be an upwelling but a move of the atlantic !
Comments are welcome !

Despite the giant protests worldwide, the russians tighten the grip...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24461644 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24461644)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on October 25, 2013, 10:22:50 AM
Greenland's parliament voted on Thursday (24 October) to end a decades-long prohibition on mining for radioactive materials like uranium, further opening up the country to investors from Australia and China eager to tap its vast mineral resources.

http://www.euractiv.com/sustainability/greenland-votes-allow-uranium-ra-news-531310?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=EurActivRSS (http://www.euractiv.com/sustainability/greenland-votes-allow-uranium-ra-news-531310?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=EurActivRSS)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Andreas T on October 25, 2013, 11:49:49 AM
also on warm waters around Svalbard http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/escaping_the_heat_the_atlantic_cod_conquers_the_arctic/?cHash=a37b1f4d9f2329fe96868717d233b68b (http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/escaping_the_heat_the_atlantic_cod_conquers_the_arctic/?cHash=a37b1f4d9f2329fe96868717d233b68b)
a reminder that CO2 does not only warm but also acidifies the ocean.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: domen_ on November 22, 2013, 12:45:23 PM
Reports of very big methane releases all over the Arctic:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-gzzzkTMf-eM%2FUo3RAfG0asI%2FAAAAAAAAL-U%2Fc1QYDwr2tjQ%2Fs1600%2FNov-19-2013-inset.jpg&hash=541bc5296be17a6f3ee47a302c2f2c97)

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on November 23, 2013, 10:28:02 AM
Domen,

Temperatures are colder than recent years in the Arctic right now. Methane destruction by OH radicals is temperature dependent.

For what it's worth I don't trust Sam Camara's blog ever since they stopped posting my comments on a certain thread. No reason was given, they just truncated the discussion when I was making comments contrary to their meme.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Theta on November 23, 2013, 11:09:54 AM
Reports of very big methane releases all over the Arctic:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-gzzzkTMf-eM%2FUo3RAfG0asI%2FAAAAAAAAL-U%2Fc1QYDwr2tjQ%2Fs1600%2FNov-19-2013-inset.jpg&hash=541bc5296be17a6f3ee47a302c2f2c97)

http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html)

I believe something similar to this happened last winter also, when there were Methane Releases from a particular area in the Arctic Sea, even looking through previous blog posts made by the blog will illustrate this.

Of course a new development could have taken place if one takes the earthquate that occurred in the Arctic Ocean into consideration (http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-earthquakes.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.ie/2013/09/methane-release-caused-by-earthquakes.html)).

For now though, the high Methane amounts over the Arctic Ocean, according to Arctic News, appear to have been caused by wind blowing Methane around as a result of the "Coriolis Effect".
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: domen_ on November 23, 2013, 11:25:54 PM
Thanks for clarification!

Quote
Methane destruction by OH radicals is temperature dependent.
Does that mean methane breaks into CO2 faster or slower during winter?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on November 24, 2013, 01:55:35 AM
Slower/hardly at all.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: johnm33 on November 24, 2013, 08:37:56 PM
More on methane release http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24639-arctic-storms-speed-up-release-of-methane-plumes.html#.UpJVO-KWYsw (http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn24639-arctic-storms-speed-up-release-of-methane-plumes.html#.UpJVO-KWYsw)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on November 24, 2013, 11:52:23 PM
Thanks for that link, john. Hope you don't mind that I copied it to a number of other fora.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on November 25, 2013, 12:18:19 AM
Here's the link to the article (thanks to prokaryote at RC):

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2007.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2007.html)

Ebullition and storm-induced methane release from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf


abstract:
Quote
Vast quantities of carbon are stored in shallow Arctic reservoirs, such as submarine and terrestrial permafrost. Submarine permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf started warming in the early Holocene, several thousand years ago. However, the present state of the permafrost in this region is uncertain.

Here, we present data on the temperature of submarine permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf using measurements collected from a sediment core, together with sonar-derived observations of bubble flux and measurements of seawater methane levels taken from the same region. The temperature of the sediment core ranged from −1.8 to 0 °C. Although the surface layer exhibited the lowest temperatures, it was entirely unfrozen, owing to significant concentrations of salt.

On the basis of the sonar data, we estimate that bubbles escaping the partially thawed permafrost inject 100–630 mg methane m−2 d−1 into the overlying water column. We further show that water-column methane levels had dropped significantly following the passage of two storms. We suggest that significant quantities of methane are escaping the East Siberian Shelf as a result of the degradation of submarine permafrost over thousands of years.

We suggest that bubbles and storms facilitate the flux of this methane to the overlying ocean and atmosphere, respectively.

(My emphases and formatting.)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 04, 2013, 09:50:27 PM
http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com/2013/07/a-breathing-earth.html (http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com/2013/07/a-breathing-earth.html)
The earth is breathing
Breath in breath out, once again, ppppfffffffaaa.....fffffffuuuuu
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on December 05, 2013, 12:17:01 AM
Thanks for that, L. Have you seen this one with a similar name but different focus:

http://www.breathingearth.net/ (http://www.breathingearth.net/)

(I find the sound effects slightly creepy after a while.)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 05, 2013, 09:03:34 AM
You already posted it the 4 th november
Jim, since you like maps, here's a similar one, but with indications of GHG release as well as births and death, and with the added benefit of slightly creepy sound effects.

http://www.breathingearth.net/ (http://www.breathingearth.net/)

The pulsing beat of births in India is quite...impressive.

On the issue of the transformation of waste, has anyone said it better than:

Patti Smith - 25th Floor (full song) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKqpaWUFHdo#)  ?

(She really gets into it at about the three minute mark.)
I don't like much looking at this numbers globaly, it is depressing !
Interesting but depressing !
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on September 23, 2014, 08:55:31 PM
Warming Temperatures Threaten Fragile Balance in Canadian Arctic
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/warming-temperatures-threaten-fragile-balance-in-canadian-arctic.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/warming-temperatures-threaten-fragile-balance-in-canadian-arctic.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

Arctic Sea Ice Shrinks Below Level of a Year Ago
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/earth/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-below-level-of-a-year-ago.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/earth/arctic-sea-ice-shrinks-below-level-of-a-year-ago.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on October 23, 2014, 04:09:56 PM
2014 Arctic sea ice extent - 6th lowest in millennia
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/oct/20/2014-arctic-sea-ice-extent-6th-lowest-in-millennia (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/oct/20/2014-arctic-sea-ice-extent-6th-lowest-in-millennia)

I like seeing things through a perspective !
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on October 23, 2014, 06:55:56 PM
Minor fact check Laurent, sorry I can't stop myself.  :-[

Kinnard et al use late summer extent, which they define as average August extent. Whether one uses the August monthly average of the daily NSIDC Extent, or the NISDC monthly extent data for August, 2014 ranks 7th, not 6th.

Not that this changes the picture significantly.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SCYetti on October 24, 2014, 05:22:16 PM
Chris Reynolds, the article in the Guardian was quoting the NSIDC when it said 6th lowest:

 "Following the seasonal daily minimum of 5.02 million square kilometers (1.94 million square miles) that was set on September 17, 2014 (6th lowest in the satellite record), Arctic sea ice has started its seasonal cycle of growth. Arctic sea ice extent averaged for the month of September 2014 was 5.28 million square kilometers (2.04 million square miles), also the 6th lowest in the satellite record. This is 1.24 million square kilometers (479,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average extent, and 1.65 million square kilometers (637,000 square miles) above the record low monthly average for September that occurred in 2012."
 I think 6th or 7th depends on whose and which estimate one uses.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on October 24, 2014, 09:53:10 PM
Sorry SCYeti, but whenever one compares to Kinnard et al it is August extent that counts, because that is what their graph shows. Yes the September minimum for 2014 was 6th, but the Kinnard data refers to an estimate based on August.

I know it is a nit-picking detail, but we should be careful not to be slack in our comparisons when we don't have to be.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: OSweetMrMath on October 25, 2014, 02:23:25 AM
But Laurent was quoting the title of the Guardian article. And the Guardian article quotes several sources and reprints several graphics, most of which state or refer to the extent as 6th lowest. It happens that the one graphic Laurent reposted shows the extent as 7th lowest. If you want to claim the Guardian got it wrong for not stating that by this one graph, it's 7th lowest, I suppose that's your choice. But correcting Laurent, as you appear to be doing, seems misplaced.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on October 25, 2014, 08:03:01 AM
OMSM,

I'm not trying to correct anyone, I'm just pointing out that Kinnard is for August. (I have said that this is a minor issue in the context of 1450 years of data)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on October 25, 2014, 09:46:24 AM
I am not a specialist like you, I am just reporting the news that I find to be of interest concerning climate change and other consequences of our collective actions. If you think 6th or 7th rank is important concerning the long term trend...oh, ok. Personnally I find that really scary either 6th or 7th...
But continue to argue if you think there is something wrong ; if I can do something about, I will do it.  ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on October 25, 2014, 10:51:55 AM
Whether one uses the August monthly average of the daily NSIDC Extent, or the NISDC monthly extent data for August, 2014 ranks 7th, not 6th.
That's true, but we were 5th lowest just a fortnight later. Clearly, judging a year only by 1 day out of 365 is unscientific. According to the Yearly Average we are 4th.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SCYetti on October 25, 2014, 02:56:57 PM
4th lowest? Thanks for that Viddaloo. In the past 6 weeks or so your posts on the yearly average and Chris Reynolds's freezing degree day posts have answered questions of mine. To me the state of the ice is important. However it is just one indicator of the total energy in the Arctic system. It may be as significant or even more significant that the water flowing out through the Greenland Sea is .5 degrees C warmer than a few years ago. If it is a trend.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SCYetti on October 25, 2014, 03:10:31 PM
OMSM,

I'm not trying to correct anyone, I'm just pointing out that Kinnard is for August. (I have said that this is a minor issue in the context of 1450 years of data)
Those who post comments here are interested in accuracy as are you. Writers at newspapers are more interested in sensationalism thus 6th instead of 7th. If they had known to talk to Viddaloo their  headline would have read 4th lowest.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on October 25, 2014, 03:13:12 PM
Average extent is 4th, average volume is 5th. I think most of us agree that volume is a better indicator of the overall state of the ice and thus the heat/enthalpy of the system? Only 2010–2013 are lower than 2014 in yearly average volume, so the latest 5 years are the lowest 5 years (in x millennia).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on October 26, 2014, 09:35:18 AM
Sorry I raised the issue Laurent. Yes I agree, and as I have now said around four times, 6th / 7th in the context of 1450 years makes little difference.

Whether one uses the August monthly average of the daily NSIDC Extent, or the NISDC monthly extent data for August, 2014 ranks 7th, not 6th.
That's true, but we were 5th lowest just a fortnight later. Clearly, judging a year only by 1 day out of 365 is unscientific. According to the Yearly Average we are 4th.

What does Kinnard et al use to construct their graph?

September daily minimum? No.
September monthly average minimum? No.
Yearly average? No.
August Average, which they call 'late summer'. Yes.

I'm walking away from this now.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on October 26, 2014, 06:04:08 PM
This graph showing 4th hammers in the 4th–ness, I believe, if still necessary.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on November 06, 2014, 10:45:55 AM
Monster Storm to Pound Bering Sea (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monster-storm-to-pound-bering/36927708)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvortex.accuweather.com%2Fadc2004%2Fpub%2Fincludes%2Fcolumns%2Fnewsstory%2F2014%2F650x366_11060902_hd33.jpg&hash=bb45f67004bdeba3fd6d43a30e1aa2cd)

Quote
Large waves and hurricane-force winds are expected to be the highest impacts with waves in some areas topping 45 feet Friday night and into Saturday.
Waves this large can quickly turn deadly, tossing around ships sailing in the area.

Could perhaps throw some sea ice around?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on November 06, 2014, 05:55:39 PM
Monster Storm to Pound Bering Sea (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monster-storm-to-pound-bering/36927708)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvortex.accuweather.com%2Fadc2004%2Fpub%2Fincludes%2Fcolumns%2Fnewsstory%2F2014%2F650x366_11060902_hd33.jpg&hash=bb45f67004bdeba3fd6d43a30e1aa2cd)

Quote
Large waves and hurricane-force winds are expected to be the highest impacts with waves in some areas topping 45 feet Friday night and into Saturday.
Waves this large can quickly turn deadly, tossing around ships sailing in the area.

Could perhaps throw some sea ice around?
The effect on ice I suspect will be Inconsequential.

The load of *moisture* the storm will haul to high latitudes I think is more consequential.

Most consequential will be, if this storm suggests a pattern has been established, whereby there is a huge increase in export of moisture and heat to the arctic during winter.  Nori is the second or third substantial storm to follow this track this year, I believe. While sensational in size, more of a concern to me for the possible pattern change.

This could imply the return of the "super high" which dominated the NE Pacific for most of the last two years, which has dried out California. Not good.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on November 06, 2014, 07:39:49 PM
Let's hope it never reaches the ESAS.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on November 29, 2014, 01:24:04 PM
Some news on the Arctic.
http://www.polarsea360.com/episodes/01/ (http://www.polarsea360.com/episodes/01/)

Available tonight on arte.tv (in French and German)
http://polarsea360.arte.tv/fr/ (http://polarsea360.arte.tv/fr/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: LRC1962 on December 06, 2014, 11:51:54 PM
On a technological side of things came acrosss this news piece http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/thermal-imaging-sensor-predicting-winter-weather-in-arctic-tests-this-spring-1.2859271 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/thermal-imaging-sensor-predicting-winter-weather-in-arctic-tests-this-spring-1.2859271) . I wonder if the FFIR could also help with giving us an idea how much heat is being trapped in the Arctic at any given point in time or how much heat is getting imported into the Arctic?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on December 07, 2014, 09:24:00 AM
I wonder if the FFIR could also help with giving us an idea how much heat is being trapped in the Arctic at any given point in time or how much heat is getting imported into the Arctic?

Oh! That would be a wonder! Heat budget is everything in sorting out what will happen. Now, if we could just get more moored sub-pack sensors to get us more water column and ice thickness data...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on December 15, 2014, 12:17:59 AM
Denmark Sunday claimed the North Pole.
 (http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/uriks/Danmark-gjor-krav-pa-Nordpolen-og-895000-kvadratkilometer-pa-havbunnen-7826591.html) (norwegian)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 15, 2014, 10:05:07 AM
Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on December 15, 2014, 07:13:28 PM
Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079)

It has daily sea ice volume figures but won't share those with the European population? Then I'm not so sure we really need the Cryosat satellite.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 15, 2014, 07:33:57 PM
Yes, strange politic, remember there is a share older behind ESA. We need it to correlate others datas but we can do without the daily news...I think.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 15, 2014, 08:18:36 PM
More on Denmark claim.
Denmark challenges Russia and Canada over North Pole
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30481309 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30481309)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on December 15, 2014, 08:43:24 PM
Yes, strange politic, remember there is a share older behind ESA. We need it to correlate others datas but we can do without the daily news...I think.

Quote from: BBC link=http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079
The deep lows in this short series were 5,300 and 5,400 cubic km in 2011 and 2012, respectively. But then came the bounce back, with colder weather over the following two years resetting the minimum. [...]

"Now that Cryosat can deliver near real-time observations of sea-ice thickness that agree to within 1% of the climate-quality measurements, which are not rapid enough for operational purposes, Arctic nations will be able to make sure that any future maritime activities are done with safety and care."

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnews.bbcimg.co.uk%2Fmedia%2Fimages%2F48209000%2Fgif%2F_48209615__46390440_cryosat466-1.gif&hash=9385f3d3da1086e2a9a81c5076f31b60)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: crandles on December 15, 2014, 09:03:20 PM
I thought Cryosat2 had daily data for small slices but it took a month to cover the whole Arctic so I don't think it really has daily volume numbers.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on December 15, 2014, 09:39:31 PM
Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079)

What interested me was at the start:

Quote
The spacecraft observed 7,500 cu km of ice cover in October when the Arctic traditionally starts its post-summer freeze-up.

This was only slightly down on 2013 when 8,800 cu km were recorded

PIOMAS finds 6,908 cu km in October 2013, and 8,104 cu km in October 2014. The numbers are not (as I understand) directly comparable between PIOMAS and Cryosat 2, although they're close.

What strikes me is that PIOMAS shows increasing volume, while Cryosat 2 shows a drop of volume.

PS, Schweiger et al find:

Quote
a conservative estimate for October Arctic ice volume uncertainty of +/- 1.35x103 km3

So at 1.196k km^3 gain from October 2014 to October 2013 the increase is not outside uncertainty bounds for PIOMAS. So we can't be sure it's happened, although the above stated uncertainty is conservative, I think 2014 has a greater volume. Sorry, but I don't trust Cryosat 2 yet.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on December 15, 2014, 10:21:06 PM
IMO it's hard to trust anyone who doesn't publish the background data. I paid for that satellite!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on December 18, 2014, 01:26:57 PM
NOAA has released its annual Arctic Report Card:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/index.html (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/index.html)

Click on the menu on the left of that webpage for the sections about

Air Temperature (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/air_temperature.html)
Terrestrial Snow Cover (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/snow_cover.html)
Greenland Ice Sheet (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/greenland_ice_sheet.html)
Sea Ice (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/sea_ice.html)
Sea surface temperature (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/sea_surface_temperature.html)

etc.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: crandles on December 18, 2014, 02:08:36 PM
Quote
Recent studies of the impact of snow layer properties on CryoSat-2 freeboard retrieval conclude that radar backscatter from the snow layer may lead to a bias in sea ice freeboard if it is not included in the retrieval process (Ricker et al. 2014, Kwok et al. 2014). Current sea-ice thickness data products from CryoSat-2 are, therefore, based on the assumption that the impact of the snow layer on radar freeboard is constant from year to year and snow depth can be sufficiently approximated by long-term observation values.

With these assumptions, updated radar freeboard and sea-ice thickness maps of the CryoSat-2 data product from the Alfred Wegner Institute (Fig. 4.4) show an increase in average freeboard of 0.05 m in March 2014 compared to the two preceding years (2012: 0.16 m, 2013: 0.16 m, 2014: 0.21 m). This amounts to an increase of mean sea-ice thickness of 0.38 m (2012: 1.97 m, 2013: 1.97 m, 2014: 2.35 m). The mean values were calculated for an area in the central Arctic Ocean where the snow climatology is considered to be valid. Excluded are the ice-covered areas of the southern Barents Sea, Fram Strait, Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The main increase of mean freeboard and thickness is observed in the multi-year sea ice zone north-west of Greenland, while first year sea ice freeboard and thickness values remained typical for the Arctic spring.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arctic.noaa.gov%2Freportcard%2Fimages-essays%2Ffig4.4-perovich_sml.jpg&hash=7a88880da7671443ed0dd5f74cc0079f)
Quote
Fig. 4.4. Arctic sea ice freeboard (left) and thickness (right) maps for March retrieved from the ESA CryoSat-2 satellite for the period 2012-2014. The areas with the darkest shading, west and east of Greenland, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Kara Sea, are outside the valid region for long-term snow observations. Freeboard is the height of the ice surface above the water level.

More volume in 2014 than 2013 per Cryosat2 which seems different from the ESA report. Above seems to agree to PIOMAS better than ESA report. at March 2014

Perhaps ESA is suffering from the 'radar backscatter from the snow layer' issue?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on December 18, 2014, 03:14:56 PM
More volume in 2014 than 2013 per Cryosat2 which seems different from the ESA report. Above seems to agree to PIOMAS better than ESA report.
Not quite. We already knew from the BBC/ESA story AGU abstracts that 'spring' 2014 was higher than 2013. The turn was somewhere between 'spring' (probably March) and October + 'October and November', where 2014 was lower.

Quote
«Between (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/15471) autumn 2010 and spring 2013, there was a 14% and 5% reduction in autumn and spring Arctic sea ice volume, respectively, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent.»
Autumn 2010 to autumn 2012: 14% drop in sea ice volume.
Spring 2011 to spring 2013: 5% drop in sea ice volume.

Quote
«However (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/15471), since then there has been a marked 41% and 9% recovery in autumn and spring sea ice volume, respectively, more than offsetting losses of the previous three years.»
Autumn 2012 to autumn 2014: 41% increase in sea ice volume.
Spring 2013 to spring 2014: 9% increase in sea ice volume.

Add to that a 15% drop in reported October sea ice volume (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,119.msg41511.html#new) from 2013 to 2014 and a 6% drop by 1st or 15th December from 2013, and you have a picture of an annual average ice volume that clearly peaked somewhere between 'spring' 2014 (still up 9% over the previous year) and October 2014 (down 15%), and that is very different from the PIOMAS AAV.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on December 18, 2014, 05:59:56 PM
In view of recent increases in moisture being imported into the arctic, and apparent increases in snowfall, and the note Crandalls included, I get a subtle indication that the interpretation of cryosat-2 data may be biased high.  I'm finding myself wondering how far their estimate of snowfall may be off.  They as much as admit they are making an educated guess.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on December 18, 2014, 07:57:38 PM
In view of recent increases in moisture being imported into the arctic, and apparent increases in snowfall, and the note Crandalls included, I get a subtle indication that the interpretation of cryosat-2 data may be biased high.  I'm finding myself wondering how far their estimate of snowfall may be off.  They as much as admit they are making an educated guess.

From what I recall of past reading of Cryosat 2 papers they use an assumed average seasonal cycle of snow cover. Variations either side of that can affect the calculated freeboard.

Ah, yes, Laxon 2013, "CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume", states that they use a snow cover climatology from Warren 1999.

Quote
Warren, S. G., I. G. Rigor, N. Untersteiner, V. F. Radionov, N. N. Bryazgin,
Y. I. Aleksandrov, and R. Colony (1999), Snow depth on Arctic sea ice,
J. Climate, 12(6), 1814–1829.

However in that 2013 paper they vary the snow depth using more recent research depending on the underlying ice type (MYI/FYI). However there have been two papers I know of proposing changes to the algorithm.
Ricker et al 2014
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1607/2014/tc-8-1607-2014.pdf (http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1607/2014/tc-8-1607-2014.pdf)
Kurtz et al 2014
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1217/2014/tc-8-1217-2014.pdf (http://www.the-cryosphere.net/8/1217/2014/tc-8-1217-2014.pdf)
(The NOAA Report card mentions another paper I have not read by Kwok).

I don't know if the recent Cryosat data incorporates improvements on the Laxon 2013 paper method. From my reading of the reportcard, as quoted by Crandles I suspect not.

Steven,

Thanks for the heads up on that.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on December 19, 2014, 04:46:27 AM
From what I recall of past reading of Cryosat 2 papers they use an assumed average seasonal cycle of snow cover. Variations either side of that can affect the calculated freeboard.

Ah, yes, Laxon 2013, "CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume", states that they use a snow cover climatology from Warren 1999.
That I think I'll chase down.  The date by itself suggests a problem considering how different the weather and ice cover is now as compared to 15 years ago.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ChrisReynolds on December 19, 2014, 06:39:01 PM
From what I recall of past reading of Cryosat 2 papers they use an assumed average seasonal cycle of snow cover. Variations either side of that can affect the calculated freeboard.

Ah, yes, Laxon 2013, "CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume", states that they use a snow cover climatology from Warren 1999.
That I think I'll chase down.  The date by itself suggests a problem considering how different the weather and ice cover is now as compared to 15 years ago.

Must admit I've never read it. Anyway, it's here:
http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/Papers/WarrenEtal99.pdf (http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/Papers/WarrenEtal99.pdf)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on December 30, 2014, 11:29:42 AM
Pancake ice takes over the Arctic.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html (http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on December 30, 2014, 01:59:10 PM
Thanks for that link, L. It confirms what I've been pointing out on occasion--that we miss a lot by just comparing raw numbers--like ice extent, area and volume--over the years and decades. This focus on quantities overlooks an enormous shift in quality: the ice we are measuring now is mostly a very different creature from the ice that was measured twenty or even ten years ago.

From the article:

Quote
When water is surrounded by ice packs, as has been common in the Arctic, areas of open water are small and there is little chance for wind to work up vigorous waves. In such calm conditions, ice forms in unbroken sheets called 'nilas'.

But now the Arctic has larger areas of open water, and more waves. "As soon as you introduce swell, you get an entirely different form of ice," says Jeremy Wilkinson of the Scottish Association for Marine Science in Oban, UK. Under these conditions, globs of ice crystals tossed about in the water combine to form first a soupy mixture called 'grease ice', and then 'pancakes' of thin ice a metre or two in diameter.

This can have all sorts of knock-on effects. Because the pancakes are round, for example, they have areas of open water between them when joined up, making the surface darker overall. This could have a warming effect as a result of less of the Sun's radiation being reflected. Water also slops up from these holes over the ice so that falling snow melts rather than settling, keeping the surface darker.

"This whole cycle is not in models of the Arctic or the Antarctic. It's one of these conundrums that people haven't looked into," says Wilkinson.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on January 09, 2015, 11:03:44 AM
Changes in Arctic ice affect Indian Monsoon: Scientists
http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-changes-in-arctic-ice-affect-indian-monsoon-scientists-2050952 (http://www.dnaindia.com/mumbai/report-changes-in-arctic-ice-affect-indian-monsoon-scientists-2050952)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on January 21, 2015, 02:10:57 PM
Old ice in Arctic Vanishingly Rare  (NOAA animation of Arctic sea ice age from 1987 to 2014).

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare (http://www.climate.gov/news-features/videos/old-ice-arctic-vanishingly-rare)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FDRnH48LvhQ (http://youtu.be/FDRnH48LvhQ)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on January 21, 2015, 05:36:37 PM
Polar bears head north as Arctic warms

http://news.sciencemag.org/biology/2015/01/polar-bears-head-north-arctic-warms (http://news.sciencemag.org/biology/2015/01/polar-bears-head-north-arctic-warms)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Wipneus on January 23, 2015, 10:54:01 AM
You read it first on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg42652.html#msg42652) but here is the news item by ESA:

Satellites catch Austfonna shedding ice (http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_catch_Austfonna_shedding_ice)

Quote
23 January 2015
Rapid ice loss in a remote Arctic ice cap has been detected by the Sentinel-1A and CryoSat satellites.

Located on Norway’s Nordaustlandet island in the Svalbard archipelago, parts of the Austfonna ice cap have thinned by more than 50 m since 2012 – about a sixth of the ice’s thickness.

Over the last two decades, ice loss from the southeast region of Austfonna has increased significantly, and ice thinning has spread over 50 km inland and is now within 10 km of the summit.

The ice cap’s outlet glacier is also flowing 25 times faster, from 150 m to 3.8 km per year – half a metre per hour.

In the study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a team led by scientists from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds in the UK combined observations from eight satellite missions, including Sentinel-1A and CryoSat, with results from regional climate models.
(...)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208667-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=7babad723db078f1083e939bb7f737ff)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208668-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=fe3d9f2a7d72e10a6541ce573185dd0a)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Espen on January 24, 2015, 10:37:25 AM
You read it first on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg42652.html#msg42652) but here is the news item by ESA:

Satellites catch Austfonna shedding ice (http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_catch_Austfonna_shedding_ice)

Quote
23 January 2015
Rapid ice loss in a remote Arctic ice cap has been detected by the Sentinel-1A and CryoSat satellites.

Located on Norway’s Nordaustlandet island in the Svalbard archipelago, parts of the Austfonna ice cap have thinned by more than 50 m since 2012 – about a sixth of the ice’s thickness.

Over the last two decades, ice loss from the southeast region of Austfonna has increased significantly, and ice thinning has spread over 50 km inland and is now within 10 km of the summit.

The ice cap’s outlet glacier is also flowing 25 times faster, from 150 m to 3.8 km per year – half a metre per hour.

In the study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a team led by scientists from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds in the UK combined observations from eight satellite missions, including Sentinel-1A and CryoSat, with results from regional climate models.
(...)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208667-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=7babad723db078f1083e939bb7f737ff)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208668-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=fe3d9f2a7d72e10a6541ce573185dd0a)

That is normal pickpockets and some "scientists"  are the same breed.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on January 29, 2015, 02:48:53 PM
Icebergs 'have sound signature'
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nukefix on January 29, 2015, 03:06:59 PM
Icebergs 'have sound signature'
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901)
Interesting, reminds me of unexplained sounds some of which are probably glaciological in origin:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unexplained_sounds (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unexplained_sounds)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on January 29, 2015, 03:18:05 PM
An other article on the subject :
Video: The sound of an iceberg being born
http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/01/video-sound-iceberg-being-born (http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2015/01/video-sound-iceberg-being-born)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: solartim27 on January 30, 2015, 06:18:04 AM
Cross posted from the policy thread.  What's old is new again:  Shell returns to the Chukchi:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on January 30, 2015, 07:02:59 AM
Cross posted from the policy thread.  What's old is new again:  Shell returns to the Chukchi:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870)

You'd *think*, with the Saudi's doing their best to swamp the oil market, Shell would bide its time and not expend effort going after what is at best marginal oil.  Ghawar could still produce at the rate the Saudi's are pumping for another 20+ years.  I'm hoping it's a blessing in disguise - drive the oil sands and arctic exploration folks out of the market, while alternatives still continue to evolve.

We shall see.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nukefix on January 30, 2015, 04:32:50 PM
Perhaps Shell is betting that the supply from fracking and shale is going to disappear soon...that's more than what Ghawar is producing..
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: plinius on January 31, 2015, 12:41:21 AM
Although being off-topic, I fear it is quite the other way round. Oil prices have collapsed to a level where the marginal costs (not accounting for the first line investments) are just barely covered. The market equilibrium contains these producers. While this certainly helps against further rapid expansion of shale production (and probably crap like tar sands), it does not push coal out of the market, which is far more harmful.
Also, regenerative energies are mostly economies of scale - the more you sell, the cheaper they become, due to an own learning curve and process optimization. So, the current low oil prices will take steam out of their expansion and research and defer their undercutting the prize for coal production farther into the future.
There is no good in lower oil prices.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: epiphyte on February 03, 2015, 07:18:05 AM
Pancake ice takes over the Arctic.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html (http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html)

Catching up after a brief hibernation here...

The picture in this article epitomizes all that makes me uneasy about extrapolating low-resolution satellite imagery into area and extent numbers, and then using those numbers as input to volume models which don't distinguish between a meter thickness of ice over which you could safely drive a battle-tank, and the hour-old undrunk Margarita seen in the image.

From Space, even to Sentinel 1,  which has much higher resolution than the existing satellite record, all of that stuff is just ice - which is one of the reasons why I think that one year or another, sometime in late summer, PIOMAS will tell us that there is a meter or more of ice over most of the arctic, when in reality we are days away from... poof.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: viddaloo on February 03, 2015, 10:12:19 AM
epiphyte, that and the documented uncertainty of the PIOMAS estimates is the reason for my "Piomas Minus 1000" (p1k) graph posted once in a while.

Looks great to have a daily number, but they can't even say for sure if it's 1000 km3 too high or too low (and when the Europeans say it's way too high, you can hear the drop of a pin).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: KeithAnt on February 04, 2015, 01:12:29 AM
Wipneus, brought the degree of regression from the Austfonna ice cap to our attention.
My question is; it might be silly, what impact would that have on the extent and volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean? Or, would the regression of the Austfonna ice cap be too small to make much difference overall?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on February 05, 2015, 08:34:30 PM
Keith, my first guess would be: not much of an impact (except perhaps local), but obviously a tell-tale sign (duh).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 18, 2015, 10:47:48 PM
Tides stir up deep Atlantic heat in the Arctic Ocean
http://phys.org/news/2015-02-tides-deep-atlantic-arctic-ocean.html (http://phys.org/news/2015-02-tides-deep-atlantic-arctic-ocean.html)

Arctic ice warms from below
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7539/full/518277e.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7539/full/518277e.html)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 19, 2015, 09:39:24 AM
Chilling reminders of climate change in the Arctic
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530093.600-chilling-reminders-of-climate-change-in-the-arctic.html?cmpid=RSS (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22530093.600-chilling-reminders-of-climate-change-in-the-arctic.html?cmpid=RSS)|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.VOWciGN3_z8
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 21, 2015, 12:47:35 PM
Interior Department Rolls Out First Rules For Arctic Drilling
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: epiphyte on February 22, 2015, 12:00:39 AM
Interior Department Rolls Out First Rules For Arctic Drilling
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)

The suggested rules are insanely reckless.  The industry response is... I don't think there's even a word to describe a position that would willingly stake a few weeks profit against the likelihood of an epoch-changing event.

At first reading, the rules say that as long as there are resources on hand to cap a blowout in the same summer season as it happens, everything is peachy. The industry says that a capping stack on the primary well (I.e. the same safeguard that failed to contain the BP blowout) is all that is needed.

One can well imagine why the industry wouldn't want the first rule - it takes weeks to drill a relief well to cut off a blowout, and there's no way to keep a rig on-station in the presence of significant ice. In combination, this implies that in order to be safe the drilling season would have to end several weeks before the end of summer. With only, say, 12 ice-free weeks to work with, they would have four weeks to drill, four weeks to produce, and if all goes well, four weeks of safety buffer at the end of each summer.

Couple the above with having two rigs in the area instead of one, and it completely changes the economics of the thing. The proposal (which itself is fraught with danger) would allow maybe 2 weeks of production/rig/year. What the industry wants to do (a single rig relying on a welltop blowout-prevention stack for safety) would allow 8-10 weeks production/rig/year - but in the event of an accident which left the wellhead open, it would pretty much guarantee that oil would be gushing into the arctic ocean (and accumulating on the bottom surface of the ice) for the whole of the next winter.

The effect that this would have on the next and subsequent melt seasons is impossible to imagine. It seems entirely plausible though that it on its own could change the face of the planet.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on February 22, 2015, 04:36:24 AM
it continues to astonish me... that energy corporations somehow think they can drill for and produce oil profitably in the Arctic ocean.

They are obviously uncaring of the risk involved.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Buddy on February 22, 2015, 05:15:22 AM
The oil and gas companies care about risk, every bit as much as the tobacco companies do about smokers lungs....:)


To quote Albert Einstein:  "The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch them without doing anything."     

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 23, 2015, 11:37:19 AM
Northop scientist and General Election candidate helps finds cause of rapid warming in Arctic Ocean
http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/northop-scientist-general-election-candidate-8672774 (http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/northop-scientist-general-election-candidate-8672774)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 27, 2015, 11:08:34 AM
This is not exactly IN the Arctic, but nevertheless:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-needs-an-ambassador-to-the-arctic-to-shape-its-future-say-lords-10074161.html (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-needs-an-ambassador-to-the-arctic-to-shape-its-future-say-lords-10074161.html)

Quote
The UK needs to “up its game” in the battle to save the Arctic and should start by appointing an ambassador to the region, according to a critical report from the House of Lords.

“The Arctic is changing in front of our eyes. That change is momentous and unprecedented. It will bring both difficulties and opportunities and it is vital that the UK takes this challenge seriously and is able to respond to it,” said Lord Teverson, chairman of the House of Lords Arctic Committee.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 28, 2015, 10:39:17 AM
Submarine data used to investigate turbulence beneath Arctic ice
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150227112541.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28Latest+Science+News+--+ScienceDaily%29 (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/02/150227112541.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+sciencedaily+%28Latest+Science+News+--+ScienceDaily%29)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: DavidR on March 01, 2015, 05:30:31 AM
Submarine data used to investigate turbulence beneath Arctic ice
That's an interesting paper, and perhaps highly  relevant  to this year where the ice in the Barents has been rushing around at the behest of numerous Arctic storms.  One would have to  assume that the water in that  area has been well mixed in the last couple of months.

This would suggest a more rapid melt  in that  are than usual. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on March 01, 2015, 07:26:23 AM
Submarine data used to investigate turbulence beneath Arctic ice
That's an interesting paper, and perhaps highly  relevant  to this year where the ice in the Barents has been rushing around at the behest of numerous Arctic storms.  One would have to  assume that the water in that  area has been well mixed in the last couple of months.

This would suggest a more rapid melt  in that  are than usual.

*Maybe*.  The top layers of water will lose heat pretty rapidly, and won't pick up more without continued mixing.

The major effect of the movement and mixing will be to leave the ice still mobile when the sun returns.  When that happens, open water will pick up heat very rapidly once the watts/M2 reaches a high enough level.

Before then, surface temps won't affect the ice particularly; the energy required for a phase change isn't really available, especially when most of the water is still below 0C.  It may thin a bit, but won't really decline significantly.

Again, I think the key take away with this amazingly warm weather over the pack is, the ice hasn't been given enough of a chance to thicken and strengthen.  Weather will still play a key role, but we may not see what that will be until we get to July.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 02, 2015, 08:51:15 PM
Ancient cod bones carry modern warning about mercury, climate change
http://www.adn.com/article/20150301/ancient-cod-bones-carry-modern-warning-about-mercury-climate-change (http://www.adn.com/article/20150301/ancient-cod-bones-carry-modern-warning-about-mercury-climate-change)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: KeithAnt on March 03, 2015, 09:26:30 PM
Study integrating observations of sea ice from submarines, satellites and aircraft

http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin-ice-combined-arctic-ice-observations-show-decades-of-loss/ (http://www.washington.edu/news/2015/03/03/on-thin-ice-combined-arctic-ice-observations-show-decades-of-loss/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 04, 2015, 10:40:03 AM
Looking at the salinity, it seems to me that for the first time there is a seeable bridge of salinity between the pacific and the atlantic ocean.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 05, 2015, 07:07:58 PM
Arctic sea ice could set an ominous new record this year
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/05/arctic-sea-ice-could-set-an-ominous-new-record-this-year/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/03/05/arctic-sea-ice-could-set-an-ominous-new-record-this-year/)
Quote
As I wrote in my story, the flight to Kivalina, which hugged the coastline of the Chukchi Sea north of Kotzebue, Alaska, revealed weak sea ice conditions that were visible to the naked eye. In many cases, the ice covering the ocean did not reach the frozen shore. The ice itself had extended fractures in many places — and this was February
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: johnm33 on March 06, 2015, 01:08:10 AM
Looking at the salinity, it seems to me that for the first time there is a seeable bridge of salinity between the pacific and the atlantic ocean.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Even more apparent here,
 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
from
 http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html)
I've been looking at this area, just south of hudson
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmap2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimagegen%2Findex.php%3FTIME%3D2015061%26amp%3Bextent%3D-1216021.3831725%2C-3655507.2299035%2C-539157.3831725%2C-3074899.2299035%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2CCoastlines%26amp%3Bopacities%3D1%2C1%26amp%3Bworldfile%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D2644%26amp%3Bheight%3D2268&hash=7f4b06ff6b7126f60b4c978c6711187b)
 on worldview [ http://1.usa.gov/1A2fzGU (http://1.usa.gov/1A2fzGU) ] for a week or so and it looks like the turbulent water emerging from beneath the ice in the south of Baffin/Labrador is putting a prodigious amount of heat into the atmosphere, [from the Pacific?] and is the cause of the weather system about to slam into the arctic. Shows up a treat here as a huge mushroom bursting south and east
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2Fgo79o%2Ffd4a10681a.jpg&hash=c1c54c23a42a1ec9534bf279c4356406)
I can't see that flow of energy stopping soon.
[edit top half was missing but was in system when I came to restore?]
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: johnm33 on March 07, 2015, 05:58:23 PM
Still huge amount of evaporation taking place, streamers from almost every crack in the ice.
http://map2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/imagegen/index.php?TIME=2015065&extent=-924800,-3076864,-361600,-2513664&epsg=3413&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&opacities=1,1&worldfile=false&format=image/jpeg&width=2200&height=2200 (http://map2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov/imagegen/index.php?TIME=2015065&extent=-924800,-3076864,-361600,-2513664&epsg=3413&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&opacities=1,1&worldfile=false&format=image/jpeg&width=2200&height=2200)
Energising the cyclone off SE Greenland.
http://1.usa.gov/1KC8JCg (http://1.usa.gov/1KC8JCg)
 Looking on nullschool that cyclone is still visible right up to 250hPa.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 16, 2015, 05:16:51 PM
Climate change in the Arctic is messing with our weather
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/16/climate-change-in-the-arctic-is-messing-with-our-weather (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/mar/16/climate-change-in-the-arctic-is-messing-with-our-weather)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 01, 2015, 09:45:19 PM
Polar bears face starvation as unlikely to adapt to a land-based diet, says report
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/01/polar-bears-face-starvation-unlikely-adapt-to-land-based-diet (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/01/polar-bears-face-starvation-unlikely-adapt-to-land-based-diet)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 05, 2015, 08:04:21 PM
It's Time to Take Arctic Drilling Off the Table
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cindy-shogan/its-time-to-take-arctic-d_b_7000330.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/cindy-shogan/its-time-to-take-arctic-d_b_7000330.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
Quote
This is not, however, the time to hang heads and concede the Arctic. Shell still needs to gain approval for its exploration plans, a revised set of which were just submitted to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). And even if BOEM deems these plans complete, there will still be a comment period to follow during which the public will have the chance to speak up for the Arctic.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 07, 2015, 11:25:45 AM
Greenpeace activists scale Arctic-bound Shell oil rig – video
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2015/apr/07/greenpeace-activists-arctic-shell-oil-rig-video (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/video/2015/apr/07/greenpeace-activists-arctic-shell-oil-rig-video)

Greenpeace activists board Arctic-bound oil rig
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/07/greenpeace-activists-board-arctic-bound-oil-rig (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/07/greenpeace-activists-board-arctic-bound-oil-rig)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 08, 2015, 09:20:32 PM
Arctic research vessel set adrift to study sea ice decline
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/08/arctic-research-vessel-adrift-studying-sea-ice-climate-change (http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/08/arctic-research-vessel-adrift-studying-sea-ice-climate-change)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 08, 2015, 09:28:50 PM
The Arctic has melted so much that now people want to race yachts through it
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/08/the-arctic-has-melted-so-much-that-people-want-to-race-yachts-through-the-northwest-passage/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/04/08/the-arctic-has-melted-so-much-that-people-want-to-race-yachts-through-the-northwest-passage/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jester Fish on May 01, 2015, 09:54:31 PM
Absolutely batsh*t crazy...Nuclear powered oil drilling in the Arctic Ocean :o >:( :-[
What could go wrong?....Ummm....everything!

http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0428/Russia-to-power-Arctic-drilling-with-floating-nuclear-reactors (http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2015/0428/Russia-to-power-Arctic-drilling-with-floating-nuclear-reactors)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on May 04, 2015, 10:48:07 AM
Climate drives 'new era' in Arctic Ocean
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32553668 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32553668)

Arctic mission monitors ice shift
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32467674 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32467674)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 08, 2015, 09:07:48 PM
Canada’s new national map shows more Arctic ice—but not because there is more
http://qz.com/395224/the-glare-of-ice-thoughts-on-the-new-national-atlas-of-canada/ (http://qz.com/395224/the-glare-of-ice-thoughts-on-the-new-national-atlas-of-canada/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2015, 02:17:53 PM
Scientists Praise Contributions of Two Dutch Explorers Who Perished on Arctic Sea Ice
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/scientists-praise-contributions-of-two-dutch-explorers-who-perished-on-arctic-ice/ (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/scientists-praise-contributions-of-two-dutch-explorers-who-perished-on-arctic-ice/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on May 11, 2015, 04:14:15 PM
Arctic Waves Pound Vanishing Ice
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/arctic-waves-pound-vanishing-ice-video/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+energy-and-sustainability+%28Topic%3A+Energy+%26+Sustainability%29 (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/arctic-waves-pound-vanishing-ice-video/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+energy-and-sustainability+%28Topic%3A+Energy+%26+Sustainability%29)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 11, 2015, 05:14:02 PM
Arctic Waves Pound Vanishing Ice

It's not that new! See also:

Importance of waves in the Arctic (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1222)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on August 10, 2015, 09:52:58 PM
Russia Stakes New Claim to Expanse in the Arctic
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/kremlin-stakes-claim-to-arctic-expanse-and-its-resources.html?partner=rss&emc=rss (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/05/world/europe/kremlin-stakes-claim-to-arctic-expanse-and-its-resources.html?partner=rss&emc=rss)

Quote
MOSCOW — Russia formally staked a claim on Tuesday to a vast area of the Arctic Ocean, including the North Pole.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Lennart van der Linde on September 07, 2015, 09:31:12 PM
Special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society on Arctic sea ice:
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2052 (http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/373/2052)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 10, 2015, 02:44:23 AM
A giant ancient virus was just uncovered in melting ice — and it won’t be the last
Quote
Let's get one thing out of the way really quickly: The ancient, giant virus recently discovered in melting Arctic ice is not going to kill you.

But here's the bad news: It's not the first ancient virus that scientists have found frozen — it's the fourth found since 2003. And you can be sure it won't be the last. And with climate change causing massive melts, it's not totally alarmist to suggest that something deadly might one day emerge from a long, icy sleep.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/09/09/an-ancient-giant-virus-was-just-uncovered-in-melting-ice-and-it-wont-be-the-last/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/09/09/an-ancient-giant-virus-was-just-uncovered-in-melting-ice-and-it-wont-be-the-last/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on September 27, 2015, 01:59:09 PM
More on viruses in (or from!) the permafrost:

Giant Viruses Are Hiding In Permafrost
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/27/giant-viruses-are-hiding-in-permafrost-but-not-for-long.html (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/09/27/giant-viruses-are-hiding-in-permafrost-but-not-for-long.html)

Scientists Describe How 1918 Influenza Virus Sample Was Exhumed In Alaska -- ScienceDaily
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/07/070702145610.htm)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: skanky on October 08, 2015, 07:09:08 PM
Quote
The Sierra Club, Environmental Media Association and RYOT launched today the first-ever virtual reality climate change public service announcement, which offers 360 degree panoramic shots that catapults viewers into the heart of the Arctic to explore frontline communities and melting glaciers.

http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/07/jared-leto-climate-change/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=44ffd773bf-Top_News_10_8_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-44ffd773bf-85361089 (http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/07/jared-leto-climate-change/?utm_source=EcoWatch+List&utm_campaign=44ffd773bf-Top_News_10_8_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_49c7d43dc9-44ffd773bf-85361089)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on October 21, 2015, 05:05:25 PM
A Toxic Threat Reaches a Remote Arctic Island
http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/10/20/remote-arctic-island-civilizations-impacts-are-persistent?cmpid=tp-ptnr-huffpost&utm_source=huffpost&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=tp-traffic (http://www.takepart.com/article/2015/10/20/remote-arctic-island-civilizations-impacts-are-persistent?cmpid=tp-ptnr-huffpost&utm_source=huffpost&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=tp-traffic)
Quote
In research published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, Evenset and her colleagues reported that the population of Arctic char landlocked in Bear Island’s Lake Ellasjøen contains some of the highest levels of toxic persistent organic pollutants found above the Arctic Circle.

The study found that the Arctic char in Lake Ellasjøen had up to 36 times more polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, in their body tissues as the same species in Lake Laksvatn, near Bear Island's northern coast. Female Arctic char in Lake Ellasjøen also showed higher levels of hexachlorobenzene in 2009 and 2012 than they had in 1999 and 2001 and had six times the amount of organohalogenated compounds in their ovaries that they had in their muscle tissue.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: plinius on October 24, 2015, 01:30:41 PM
does not seem very reasonable to me. Virtually all glaciers cycle the ice over thousands of years, so we are continuously "exposed" to thawing diseases. Yet, there are far more dangerous sources of disease to worry about - a single mass animal farm breeds more new and virulent diseases than a giant glacier can spew out in rapid melt.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: LRC1962 on October 24, 2015, 09:49:43 PM
does not seem very reasonable to me. Virtually all glaciers cycle the ice over thousands of years, so we are continuously "exposed" to thawing diseases. Yet, there are far more dangerous sources of disease to worry about - a single mass animal farm breeds more new and virulent diseases than a giant glacier can spew out in rapid melt.
Let us divide your issues into 3 parts. warm land, mountain glaciers and sea level ice and land (will includes Greenland and Antarctica in this as the caving points are at sea level.
Warm land. Here the viruses mutate constantly, but at the same time humans exposed it viruses from these areas generally get constant updated inoculations and although can get sick for the most part especially with modern medical interventions do not die in world wide large percentage numbers.
Mountain glaciers can contain viruses, but because of mountain meadow lands and other such areas, nature filters out for the most part those viruses and therefore do not get into the general human population.
Sea level glaciers and frozen lands such as permafrost is a very different story. At one time it was thought viruses got killed off because the people that lived in those areas never got sick with them. It seems that maybe what happened was that they were put into cold storage. If that is the case then humans have no inoculations for those viruses because they have not been around in the general public for a long time. The question that needs to be answered is what and how will they effect the general public now. Will they be ineffective because the the transit from ice to warmth will brake them down to the point they can not harm humans? Is there the critical mass of the virus needed to infect the host to the point it can become a major health issue? Can it be transported from the cold regions to where the hosts live fast enough so that they can repopulate themselves before nature can filter them out using its natural filtration systems?
We now know those viruses live there. We also know that if those viruses got into the general population of their host in numbers that they can thrive in a lot of damage will happen fast because the host no longer have defences against them. Its the other questions we still have no clear answers for yet.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on October 26, 2015, 05:11:36 PM
Apologies if this has been posted somewhere, but here's an interview with Gavin Schmidt, the first couple questions on Arctic Sea Ice: https://www.skepticalscience.com/interview-gavin-schmidt.html (https://www.skepticalscience.com/interview-gavin-schmidt.html)

Quote
CB: Is there any good news at all with Arctic sea-ice? There was a NASA study that suggested that, perhaps, older, multi-year sea ice was recovering a bit since the 2012 low. Is that happening?

GS: So, what you are seeing is, again, some of that inter-annual variability that is driven by, you know, the vagaries of the weather in any particular summer season. It’s not in any sense a recovery, but, obviously, once you have a really exceptional year – the one you had in 2012 – anything after that is going to look like it’s a recovery, but the long-term trends are very, very dramatic. The sea-ice thickness has gone down by over 40%, the amount of old ice – so this is the thick, ridged ice that’s been around for multiple seasons – has gone down to historic lows. So, it’s not going down to the extent where it’s all going to disappear this year or next year, but the decline is very significant and is steady.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on November 25, 2015, 09:35:36 PM
http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/la-cop21-a-40-ans-de-retard-denonce-mika-mered-specialiste-de-l-arctique.N363749#xtor=RSS-300 (http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/la-cop21-a-40-ans-de-retard-denonce-mika-mered-specialiste-de-l-arctique.N363749#xtor=RSS-300)

A French article translated here with google and me :

A photo with some polar bears who see their ice melt... It's a powerful image that symbolizes global warming. Yet early December in Paris at the COP21, the climate conference, the topic of the Arctic will not be mentioned. Mika Mered advocates that Poles are not forgotten in these negotiations. Specialist of the polar regions since 2008 in Polarisk, he took the head of the institute of geostrategic Council three years ago. In parallel, he also founded the French Polar Cluster. This association, gathering the French players operating in the Arctic, the Arctic will organize meetings to raise awareness of the problems of the region.

L'Usine Nouvelle: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is an expert in climate prediction. Do you believe, as he announced in September that the Arctic Ocean will melt completely during the summer in 2100?
Mika Mered: According to various estimates made by climatologists, the US Navy says 2035, NASA has several scenarios ranging from 2030 to 2075. It is even before 2100. So it's something clear , clear and precise, the total melting of the Arctic Ocean arrives.

And the fact of limiting global warming to 2 ° C, which is the main objective of the COP21, will not change anything?
The Arctic is melting and it will melt the COP21 there or not. Whatever the agreement of the COP21 is, it will continue to melt.

Yet the subject of the Arctic will not be discussed during the COP21.
There are 74% of the earth's surface which will not be discussed during the COP21. You have half days or thematic days on peoples and forests. But there are two issues that are not scheduled : polar regions and oceans. This may seem completely absurd but the oceans and the poles will not be discussed at COP21.

How do you explain it?
The Arctic, Antarctic and oceans can be "deal breakers"  agreements. That is to say that you can have an early agreement, but when we arrive on the oceans or the poles, there is a blockage.

"The word must be given to Greenland"

What a subject directly threatened by global warming could prevent a deal?
If you enter negotiations on oceans at the COP21, you will therefore initiate a review of the Montego Bay Convention of 1982, which governs the international law of the sea. The agreement was reached after long and difficult negotiations . It would be an tremendous cacophony. Similarly for the Antarctic Treaty and the Madrid Protocol, which is supposed to guarantee the proper use of science and the environment of Antarctica.

There is the Montego Bay agreement for the sea, the Madrid Protocol for the Antarctic, but no treaty on the Arctic. Why is it therefore not included in the negotiations?
The Arctic is inhabited, the Arctic is shared, the Arctic has an existing legal structure and the Arctic coastal states have exclusive economic zone. Based on this principle, it would not be to the advantage of France, with a view to reaching agreement at COP21, to bring this matter specifically in negotiations.

Yet the Arctic meetings "Arctic Encounter" that you organize, will address specifically the Arctic.
That's right, however, Arctic Encounter Paris 2015 aims to be a forum for discussion and not a beginning process towards commitments. On December 11, just after the close of COP21, experts will pick up on what has been done, or not, at the conference to see how the Arctic has been taken into account and analyze the impacts on the area.

The next day, you will give a voice to local actors, why?
The Prime minister of Nunavut, the Inuit province of Canada, will open the day on the 12th December, and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Economy and Greenland's Mineral Resources will conclude. These people must have a space for talking. They are impacted before us. This should be the logic, it is not this one that will prevail at the COP21.

"The possibility of a reverse gear is gone"

You think the COP21 is a sword in the water?
Paul-Emile Victor, the famous French explorer, said already in the 70s it does ideally require a global ecological awareness. But 40 years ago, you could still do something. That is to say, if at that time there had been the COP21 and therefore, a concrete agreement. The Arctic would not have melted and we would not be talking about it.

It is too late to act?
People born after the 80s are possibly the most committed and aware of the issues. Alas, they have no more influence on near future climate. The new generation of political leader who will emerge, who are now between 15 and 30 years old, will have to manage global warming. The possibility of backtracking is over.

 Interview by Pierre Monnier
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on November 25, 2015, 11:49:25 PM
Merci, Laurent.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on December 15, 2015, 11:36:06 PM
NOAA released the 2015 Arctic Report Card:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ (http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/)

See also:
2015 Arctic Report Card: Visual Highlights (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/features/2015-arctic-report-card-visual-highlights)

Here are some of the topics covered on the "visual highlights" page:

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 15, 2015, 11:56:19 PM
Thanks for this, Steven.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: GT on December 16, 2015, 02:59:46 PM
Hi,

I'm new to the site so forgive me if this has been covered before but could somebody explain this massive fracture showing on the AARI website?
 
http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2015 (http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2015)   

I've tried researching online but have been unable to find an explanation. Cheers
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 16, 2015, 04:21:05 PM
Welcome to the Forum, GT, and well-spotted!

I'm not sure the fracture is real, although there has been some cracking recently because of a high-pressure area over the Beaufort. On the other hand, I think I'm seeing something on this radar image (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/ascat_images/ice_image/msfa-NHe-a-2015349.sir.gif) (but very faintly).

I'm copying the question to the 2015/2016 freezing season thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1377.100.html).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on December 16, 2015, 07:41:24 PM
Hi,

I'm new to the site so forgive me if this has been covered before but could somebody explain this massive fracture showing on the AARI website?

Welcome GT!  Excuse the cross posting, but the fracture would seem to be real. This Sentinel 1A Synthetic Aperture Radar image (obtained via the Arctic section of PolarView (http://www.polarview.aq/arctic)) reveals part of it:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polarview.aq%2Fimages%2F106_S1jpgsmall%2F201512%2FS1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20151215T143649_6746_N_1.jpg&hash=e71522c327898c45ec8ba96b7f0051c4)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on February 13, 2016, 07:18:47 PM
Not really new... 53m (thousands ?) years

Flightless bird with giant head roamed swampy Arctic 53m years ago
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/feb/13/gastornis-flightless-bird-arctic-ellesmere-island (https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/feb/13/gastornis-flightless-bird-arctic-ellesmere-island)
Quote
Gastornis was also discovered in Wyoming but scientists confirm finding of fossils on Ellesmere island as bird thought to migrate during dark Arctic winters
Scientists said the discovery of Gastornis on Ellesmere island provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate.
Scientists said the discovery of Gastornis on Ellesmere island provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate. Photograph: Marlin Peterson

Oliver Milman

A giant, flightless bird with a head the size of a horse’s roamed the Arctic 53m years ago when the icy wilderness was more like a swamp, scientists have confirmed.

A joint study by American and Chinese institutions found that the massive beast, known as Gastornis, existed on what is now known as Ellesmere island, found above the Arctic circle. It’s estimated the bird was 6ft tall and weighed several hundred pounds.

The evidence for Gastornis’s presence in the Arctic comes from a single fossil toe bone, found by researchers in the 1970s. Scientists have now finally confirmed that the bone matches that of a fossilized Gastornis of similar age found in Wyoming.

“I couldn’t tell the Wyoming specimens from the Ellesmere specimen, even though it was found roughly 4,000km (2,500 miles) to the north,” said Prof Thomas Stidham of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. Stidham and his colleague Jaelyn Eberle, of the University of Colorado Boulder, matched the bones through techniques such as studying where muscle attachments lay. The research has been published in Scientific Reports.

The research raises some interesting questions over the behavior of Gastornis. The giant bird may have migrated south during winters in the Arctic, where darkness envelops the region for months at a time. The species was originally thought to be a formidable carnivore but recent research suggests that Gastornis was probably a vegan, using its huge beak to munch through leaves, nuts, seeds and fruit.

Eberle said bird fossils found in the Arctic are “extremely rare” and that the researchers aren’t sure whether Gastornis lived in the area year round.

“There are some sea ducks today that spend the winter in the cold, freezing Arctic, and we see many more species of waterfowl that are only in the Arctic during the relatively warmer spring and summer months,” she said.

Canada’s Ellesmere island is the 10th largest island in the world and lies adjacent to Greenland. Riven with fjords and attached to vast aprons of ice, Ellesmere is one of the coldest, driest and most remote places on Earth. Temperatures can reach -40C (-40F) in winter.

It was a very different place 53m years ago, however, during the Eocene epoch. During this time, Antarctica was still attached to Australia and global temperatures were unusually warm, which meant the world was mostly ice-free. Ellesmere island would have been covered in the sort of cypress swamps now found much farther south in the US, with evidence that the area hosted turtles, alligators, primates and even large hippo-like and rhino-like mammals.

While apes and alligators won’t be returning to Ellesmere any time soon, the researchers said that the discovery of Gastornis provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate.

“Permanent Arctic ice, which has been around for millennia, is on track to disappear,” Eberle said.

“I’m not suggesting there will be a return of alligators and giant tortoises to Ellesmere island any time soon. But what we know about past warm intervals in the Arctic can give us a much better idea about what to expect in terms of changing plant and animal populations there in the future.”
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Chuck Yokota on February 13, 2016, 09:51:20 PM
Laurent, that would be 53 million years ago.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 17, 2016, 03:53:23 AM
On the Blog Neven recently posted about an expected severe ozone hole in the Arctic this spring.  The linked article provides a lot of information on this subject:

http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674slap_on_the_sunscreen_arctic_ozone_could_hit_all-time_low_this_spring/ (http://www.nunatsiaqonline.ca/stories/article/65674slap_on_the_sunscreen_arctic_ozone_could_hit_all-time_low_this_spring/)


Extract: "The Montreal Protocol, an international treaty which went into force in 1989, bound nations to phase out human made ozone-depleting chemicals.

But ozone is still being destroyed in other ways and this year, it seems to be happening on a grand scale.

Scientists are predicting ozone destruction over the Arctic this spring will exceed the highest recorded depletion, which took place in 2011. That year, 80 per cent of the ozone over the Arctic was destroyed.

The science behind this phenomenon is interesting, albeit complicated, and we can expect it to happen more frequently as the earth’s climate warms, said Manney. Here’s why.

There is a fixed amount of heat radiating from the sun.

As greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, collect in the earth’s atmosphere, these gases trap more heat closer to the earth, warming the climate.

But as a result of that entrapment, less heat leaks out into the atmosphere’s higher altitudes in the stratosphere.

And so the stratosphere is getting colder. When that happens, water vapour and nitric acid condense more frequently at high altitudes to form what are called polar stratospheric clouds — beautifully colourful, but foreboding in nature.

When a harmless form of chlorine gas, which is naturally present in the stratosphere, comes into contact with those unusual clouds, the chlorine is transformed into its “active” form.

And chlorine, in its active form, destroys ozone."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: plinius on February 17, 2016, 04:35:18 AM
The heat trapping part is a bit bitter in that article. It's radiating more heat where the optical depth is lower...

@LRC: No, a virus does not live. A virus does not live in the arctic, and new mutations of any pathogens happen only in living animal populations (in particular humans for human infections). And no, if you freeze out a couple of little protein packages, your supervirus is long-decayed before you get to any human being. It's something very different from someone digging up Spanish flu victims (90years ago, best conditions, human corpse with infection) and isolating the virus with state-of-the-art scientific methods, and fairy tale horror stories of killer microbes emanating from iceblocks. So, please worry about your favourite beach ceasing to exist in your life-time, or some researcher building a perfect virus in their lab, but do not worry about being infected by a thawing ice-block.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 18, 2016, 09:21:13 PM
“It’s unraveling, every piece of it is unraveling....”

Scientists are floored by what’s happening in the Arctic right now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/18/scientists-are-floored-by-whats-happening-in-the-arctic-right-now/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/18/scientists-are-floored-by-whats-happening-in-the-arctic-right-now/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 15, 2016, 01:41:59 PM
Amplification of Arctic warming by past air pollution reductions in Europe
http://www.nature.com.sci-hub.io/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2673.html (http://www.nature.com.sci-hub.io/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2673.html)

Quote
Amplification of Arctic warming by past air
pollution reductions in Europe
The Arctic region is warming considerably faster than the rest
of the globe
1
, with important consequences for the ecosystems
2
and human exploration of the region
3
. However, the reasons
behind this Arctic amplification are not entirely clear
4
. As
a result of measures to enhance air quality, anthropogenic
emissions  of  particulate  matter  and  its  precursors  have
drastically decreased in parts of the Northern Hemisphere over
the past three decades
5
. Here we present simulations with
an Earth system model with comprehensive aerosol physics
and chemistry that show that the sulfate aerosol reductions
in Europe since 1980 can potentially explain a significant
fraction of Arctic warming over that period. Specifically, the
Arctic region receives an additional 0.3 W m
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Anne on March 15, 2016, 03:22:53 PM
Ilulissat's Hotel Arctic webcam is back up and running.
http://hotelarctic.com/om_hotel_arctic/webcam/ (http://hotelarctic.com/om_hotel_arctic/webcam/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Gray-Wolf on March 15, 2016, 03:23:20 PM
Really makes you wonder just what we already have in store as the old Soviet Polluting fades and China cleans up her act?

If even with all the negative natural and china's worst efforts we still saw global temp increases then what when China cleans up and naturals are positive?

Just how close are we to triggering natural feedbacks boosting warming further?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Anne on March 15, 2016, 03:34:50 PM
Degrading ice wedges reshape Arctic landscape

Quote
Ice wedges, a common subsurface feature in permafrost landscapes, appear to be rapidly melting throughout the Arctic, according to a new study published today in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The wedges, which can be the size of a house, gradually formed over hundreds or even thousands of years as water seeped into permafrost cracks. On the ground surface, they form polygon shapes roughly 15-30 meters wide -- a defining characteristic of northern landscapes.

The micro-topographic features of ice wedge polygons affect drainage, snow distribution and the general wetness or dryness of a landscape.

Anna Liljedahl, an assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Water and Environmental Research Center, and her co-authors gathered information about the types of ice-wedge polygons and how they changed over time across the Arctic. They collected the information while performing various other permafrost studies.

Although these regions contain "cold permafrost," with an overall average temperature of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit, surface thawing still occurred at all of the 10 study sites.

Ice wedge degradation has been observed before in individual locations, but this is the first study to determine that rapid melting has become widespread throughout the Arctic.

"Here we're combining observations from people working in the field across the Arctic -- Russia, Canada and Alaska -- where we're seeing the same ice wedge melting phenomenon," said Liljedahl, the lead author of the study.

Such thawing could bring significant changes to the hydrology of much of the Arctic as it alters the ground-surface topography. Melting of ice wedge tops makes the ground that surrounds the polygons subside, which in turn allows drainage of ice-wedge polygon centers. This can create a connective drainage system that encourages runoff and therefore an overall drying of the landscape.

"It's really the tipping point for the hydrology," Liljedahl said. "Suddenly you're draining the landscape and creating more runoff, even if the amount of precipitation remains the same. Instead of being absorbed by the tundra, the snowmelt water will run off into lakes and larger rivers. It really is a dramatic hydrologic change across the tundra landscape."

A comprehensive satellite image survey hasn't been done to determine how common polygon ice wedge patterns are in permafrost areas, but as much as two-thirds of the Arctic landscape is suited to their formation, Liljedahl said.

Gradual warming of permafrost has been well-documented in the Arctic, but the polygon study indicates that a brief period of unusual warmth can cause a rapid shift in a short time period.

At the sites that were studied, ice wedge degradation occurred in less than a decade. In some cases, a single unusually warm summer was enough to cause more than 10 centimeters of surface subsidence, enough to result in pooling and runoff in an otherwise relatively flat landscape.

Vladimir Romanovsky, a UAF geophysics professor who monitored ice wedge degradation for the study at a site in Canada, said the overall conclusions of the study were striking.

"We were not expecting to see these dramatic changes," he said. "We could see some other places where ice wedges were melting, but they were all related to surface disturbances, or it happened a long time ago. Whatever is happening, it's something new for at least the last 60 years in the Arctic."
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php)

Link to the paper: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2674.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo2674.html)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2016, 06:24:33 PM
Nome, Alaska may become the next top tourist destination -- for cruise ships.

A new Titanic? US and Canada prepare for worst as luxury Arctic cruise sets sail
Coast guard officials are training for catastrophe as melting sea ice opens up Northwest Passage allowing liner to cruise with 1,700 from Alaska to New York.
Quote
On 13 April, coast guard officials from the US and Canada will train for a cruise ship catastrophe: a mass rescue from a luxury liner on its maiden voyage through the remote and deathly cold waters between the Northwest Passage and the Bering Strait.

The prospect of just such a disaster occurring amid the uncharted waters and capricious weather of the Arctic is becoming all too real.

The loss of Arctic sea ice cover, due to climate change, has spurred a sharp rise in shipping traffic – as well as coast guard rescue missions – and increased the risks of oil spills, shipping accidents, and pollution, much to the apprehension of native communities who make their living on the ice.

It’s into these turbulent waters that the luxury cruise ship Crystal Serenity will set sail next August, departing from Seward, Alaska, and transiting the Bering Strait and Northwest Passage, before docking in New York City 32 days later.
...
Nome, which saw just 35 dockings in the 1990s, had more than 730 last year.

“I think tourism is good for Nome,” Beneville, the town’s indefatigable mayor, said. “In tourism there is a saying: ‘if people can get there, they will go’, and that is becoming possible.” He went on: “There is a lot at stake here. We want Nome to be a strategic point in the north.”
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/28/us-canada-arctic-cruise-ship-titanic-emergency-training-coast-guard (http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/28/us-canada-arctic-cruise-ship-titanic-emergency-training-coast-guard)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on March 30, 2016, 07:46:47 PM
Nome, Alaska may become the next top tourist destination -- for cruise ships.
<snippage>

Leave it to cynical capitalists to monetize catastrophe, self-absorbed clueless elites to think its a good thing,   *AND* by their actions, hasten the eventual outcome and destruction of communities in the Arctic.

<face palm>
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Espen on March 30, 2016, 08:55:12 PM
Its an unavoidable process, in my young and backpack days, I visited 100s of places around the globe, many of the those sites are today ruined by mass tourism.
The lesson to be learned is: Avoid the backpackers! (in this case science, unfortunately)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on March 30, 2016, 10:09:13 PM
I'm sure there is scientific knowledge to be gained by watching this video. ;)  On the other hand, it's just beautiful.

Fly over giant icebergs in the North Atlantic in this gorgeous drone video
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/30/fly-over-giant-icebergs-in-the-north-atlantic-in-this-gorgeous-drone-video/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/03/30/fly-over-giant-icebergs-in-the-north-atlantic-in-this-gorgeous-drone-video/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: A-Team on April 13, 2016, 02:14:21 PM
I looked through the Arctic sea ice sector of abstracts from the EGU spring meeting, a similar event to the December AGU meeting. These provide a preview of ongoing cryosphere research that has not yet reached the journal submission stage. (A lot can change.)  A key word search at google with url restricted to 'meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/' is effective. No posters are available even for the poster session but sometimes it pays to re-google the title. I found a dozen items of interest ... just the titles are given below.

Fram Strait Spring Ice Export and September Arctic Sea Ice

Snow depth on Arctic and Antarctic sea ice derived from autonomous (Snow Buoy) measurements

Recent sea-ice reduction and possible causes

The impact of under-ice melt ponds on Arctic sea ice volume

Mapping wave heights in sea ice with Sentinel 1

Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic sea ice temperatures

Spring melt ponds drive Arctic September ice at past, present and future climates in coupled climate simulation

Recent Improvements in the U.S. Navy’s Ice Modeling Using Merged CryoSat-2/SMOS Ice Thickness

Robustness of the large-scale modes of variability of winter Arctic sea ice concentration

On the possibility and predictability of rapid Arctic winter sea-ice loss
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on April 14, 2016, 06:02:48 PM
I'll be going to some of these presentations next week, and will report on the ASIB. I'm looking forward to it.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on April 14, 2016, 09:04:43 PM
I'll be going to some of these presentations next week, and will report on the ASIB. I'm looking forward to it.
I am such a geek - all of those look quite interesting and some positively excite me. I'm envious.  I'll look forward to seeing your posts later, Neven.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2016, 11:58:33 PM
I'll be going to some of these presentations next week, and will report on the ASIB. I'm looking forward to it.

If you have time/interest, I would love to hear about what DeConto, Pollard & Gomez have to say in the following ESU session on Antarctic paleoclimates, SLR & ice dynamics:
Orals
 / Thu, 21 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / Room -2.47
Session details

CL1.12/CR1.17/OS1.11 Media
Antarctic palaeoclimates, sea level change and ice dynamics in past warm episodes: marrying models and data (co-organized)
Convener: Peter Bijl 
Co-Conveners: Carlota Escutia , Aisling Dolan 
Evidence from field observations of sedimentological records alongside geochemical, microfossil and seismic data analysis suggests that the entire Cenozoic Antarctic ice sheet witnessed several episodes of dramatic waxing and waning in concert with evidence for climates moderately warmer than today. In contrast, numerical modelling studies have not always been able to predict such dynamic behaviour given reasonable climate forcings. In general, the causes and consequences of major ice sheet volume and sea level changes in the past are often poorly understood.

This session aims to bring together research fields of numerical ice sheet, climate and oceanographic modelling and field/proxy data, as a way to foster model-data comparison. We invite submissions that aim to present new insights from improved numerical modelling experiments of ice sheet, oceanographic and sea ice dynamics as well as those presenting new field data from sedimentary records around the Antarctic Margin (e.g., those from Integrated Ocean drilling program Leg 318 to the Wilkes Land Margin, ANDRILL and their predecessors) or proxy data pertaining to conditions in the Southern Ocean. We welcome research from all areas related to ice sheet dynamics, e.g. bedrock responses to ice sheet changes, the gravitational isostatic responses to glaciation, potential thresholds in climate (induced by orbit or carbon dioxide changes). Submissions considering both proxy-evidence and modelling studies are encouraged.


Geophysical Research Abstracts
Vol. 18, EGU2016-3577, 2016
EGU General Assembly 2016
Large-Ensemble modeling of past and future variations of the Antarctic
Ice Sheet with a coupled ice-Earth-sea level model
David Pollard (1), Robert DeConto (2), and Natalya Gomez (3)

To date, most modeling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet’s response to future warming has been calibrated using recent and modern observations. As an alternate approach, we apply a hybrid 3-D ice sheet-shelf model to the last deglacial retreat of Antarctica, making use of geologic data of the last ~20,000 years to test the model against the large-scale variations during this period.  The ice model is coupled to a global Earth-sea level model to improve modeling of the bedrock response and to capture ocean-ice gravitational interactions.  Following several recent ice-sheet studies, we use Large Ensemble (LE) statistical methods, performing sets of 625 runs from 30,000 years to present with systematically varying model parameters. Objective scores for each run are calculated using modern data and past reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea level records, cosmogenic elevation-age data and uplift rates. The LE results are analyzed to calibrate 4 particularly uncertain model parameters that concern marginal ice processes and interaction with the ocean. LE’s are extended into the future with climates following RCP scenarios. An additional scoring criterion tests the model’s ability to reproduce estimated sea-level high stands in the warm mid-Pliocene, for which drastic retreat mechanisms of hydrofracturing and ice-cliff failure are needed in the model. The LE analysis provides future sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds. Sensitivities of future LE results to Pliocene sea-level estimates, coupling to the Earth-sea level model, and vertical profiles of Earth properties, will be presented.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on April 20, 2016, 05:14:44 PM
Some orcas were stuck in the Arctic but Russians helped them out.
http://skr.su/news/258343 (http://skr.su/news/258343)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67h05QRyp5o (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67h05QRyp5o)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic_yTpXA8k0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ic_yTpXA8k0)
Four orcas rescued after getting trapped in ice
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f084o0V_ECs (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f084o0V_ECs)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 25, 2016, 10:05:42 PM
Quote
Dramatic sea ice break/melt in #BeaufortSea (4/1 vs. 4/24, #MODIS Terra 1km) nearly a month earlier than normal
https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/724626347625082880

The link above has a comparative GIF.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on April 29, 2016, 08:42:19 PM
Pangnirtung, Nunavut, hits 10 C, smashes April heat record
Quote
Pangnirtung, Nunavut melted a 90-year-old heat record Tuesday as temperatures climbed to 10 C, according to Environment Canada.

The community is located almost 300 kilometres northeast of Iqaluit on Baffin Island, just south of the Arctic Circle. It is known as the 'Switzerland of the Arctic' for its steep mountains and fiords.

Pangnirtung's previous heat record for April 26 was set in 1926 with a high of 6.7 C, said Dave Phillips, Environment Canada's senior climatologist. Seasonal temperatures are usually closer to —7 C.

"I mean, these would be warm days even for the dog days of summer," said Phillips.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/pangnirtung-heat-record-1.3553971 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/pangnirtung-heat-record-1.3553971)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on May 02, 2016, 08:32:24 PM
New paper by James Screen and Jennifer Francis:

Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html)

Abstract:

Quote
...

Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies.

Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate.

Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase.

We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.

(I added paragraph breaks for readability)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2016, 09:25:48 PM
New paper by James Screen and Jennifer Francis:

Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html)

Abstract:

Quote
...

Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies.

Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate.

Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase.

We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.

(I added paragraph breaks for readability)
Interesting that the relation seems somewhat weak - 2013 and 2014 had significant to moderate -PDO but considerable recovery on the part of the ice.

Contrarywise - 2015 had positive PDO but very significant ice loss.

If they are factoring in pre-2012/2007, that may explain it.  Even in view of that though, I think pre- and post-2007 are going to be very different systems in how they react to various other changes.

Recent PDO numbers for reference.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/ (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2016, 10:07:06 PM
The linked Scribbler article contains a nice summary of the current trend in the Arctic:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/02/arctic-sea-ice-is-falling-off-a-cliff-and-it-may-not-survive-the-summer/

Extract: "… our Arctic sea ice coverage has been consistently in record low ranges throughout Winter, it has been following a steepening curve of loss since April, and it now appears to have started to fall off a cliff. Severe losses that are likely to both impact the Jet Stream and extreme weather formation in the Northern Hemisphere throughout the Spring and Summer of 2016."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 04, 2016, 12:57:43 AM
My apologies if this is old news....

Scientists scrambling to track Arctic sea ice after key satellite sensor dies
Quote
Aware that the F17 satellite was getting old, the NSIDC had been running calibration tests to maintain a consistent record of sea ice extent between the sensor on the F17 satellite and the DMSP F19 satellite, which was launched in 2014.

But that ended on Feb. 11, 2016, when F19 went completely dark.

"Well, F19 died,” Serreze said. “That was not good, we kind of picked the wrong horse there.”

The important thing for Serreze and his colleagues is that any breaks in sea ice data are minimized, which is why they take time to iron out any kinks from one instrument before they switch to it. Such calibration periods, as they're known, are a crucial part of climate science research and monitoring.
Because of the F17 sensor outage, though, they are being forced to cope with a discontinuity or gap in the data.

"The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so we have chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive," the organization stated on its website.

To restart the gathering of sea ice extent information, scientists are running parallel data streams from instruments on two other Defense Department satellites, known as DMSP F16 and F18. Both of these satellites have a design lifetime that ends this year, though many spacecraft continue functioning long after that point.

Serreze said the hope is that sea ice data from these satellites will be available within the next week or so, just in time for the start of the annual summer melt season.
http://mashable.com/2016/05/03/arctic-ice-satellite-outage/ (http://mashable.com/2016/05/03/arctic-ice-satellite-outage/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: crandles on May 12, 2016, 07:55:10 PM
Quote
Cryosat spacecraft's ice vision is boosted
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36272728 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36272728)

European scientists have found a way to super-charge their study of the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland.

It is about swath altimetry: "it permits researchers to see broader regions of the ice sheets in any one pass overhead, and at a much finer scale."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 21, 2016, 10:15:21 PM
Waning Sea Ice Threatens Fragile Arctic Food Web
Faced with the grim reality that this year’s Arctic sea ice may once again hit the all-time record lows of 2012, scientists weigh up the subsequent risks.
Quote
Svalbard bears number around 3,000 in winter, but the permanent local population is only in the hundreds. A recent paper correlated disappearing sea ice with a steady increase in polar bears plundering Arctic seabird colonies. Jouke Prop, a biologist from the University of Groningen, in the Netherlands, first noticed predation at his study site in southwest Svalbard in 2004. A decade later, not a single chick had survived the breeding season.

Prop has watched a lifetime of study gobbled up in a few short seasons. A hungry bear can raid 50 nests in an hour and a half, consuming 200 eggs, akin to a 20kg (44lb) omelet. According to Prop, a small number of bears have learned when and where to return each year for the best meals; such intense predation may eventually destroy ancestral breeding sites.
https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/05/18/waning-sea-ice-threatens-fragile-arctic-food-web (https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/05/18/waning-sea-ice-threatens-fragile-arctic-food-web)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on June 23, 2016, 04:57:54 PM
The Arctic’s pretty but alarming strawberry-pink snow
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/06/23/arctic-snow-is-turning-strawberry-pink-pretty-maybe-but-alarming/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/06/23/arctic-snow-is-turning-strawberry-pink-pretty-maybe-but-alarming/)
Quote
Pink snow was a high-latitude curiosity described by Arctic explorers such as Britain’s John Ross. Upon receiving word of the reddish snow, the London Times speculated in 1818 that the color came from meteoric iron deposits. Biologists know now that the red hue is the result of a chemical reaction within the algae Chlamydomonas nivalis and other cold-loving species. These algae are normally green, but as they start to suck up ultraviolet rays, they turn red.

What may look like an Arctic accident involving gallons of pink lemonade is, in fact, reddish algae blooming in the snow. The unusual phenomenon is also found in high altitudes, and sometimes called watermelon snow or blood snow.

Despite the Willy Wonka tinge, the snow hides a sobering reality: According to a new study, the algae cause Arctic melts, which are already happening at an unprecedented pace because of climate change,to worsen.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jplotinus on August 05, 2016, 03:15:51 PM
YAMAL PENINSULA - Anthrax outbreak from permafrost thaw

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1008.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Faf205%2Fjfibonacci%2FMobile%2520Uploads%2Fimage_7.jpeg&hash=b4e79cae5aeb96f30712e62a11351587) (http://s1008.photobucket.com/user/jfibonacci/media/Mobile%20Uploads/image_7.jpeg.html)

Source:

http://readersupportednews.org/news-section2/318-66/38399-anthrax-outbreak-in-russia-thought-to-be-result-of-thawing-permafrost (http://readersupportednews.org/news-section2/318-66/38399-anthrax-outbreak-in-russia-thought-to-be-result-of-thawing-permafrost)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on August 11, 2016, 03:27:40 PM
Guest post: Piecing together the Arctic’s sea ice history back to 1850
A guest article by Florence Fetterer, principal investigator at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) in the US.
Quote
Satellites provide a near-continuous record of Arctic sea ice cover, allowing scientists to monitor changes from one day to the next. But because this data spans only the most recent three and a half decades, we need to look elsewhere to gather information on variations over longer periods.

This data is necessary as there are some research questions that can’t be answered with only short-term records, such as:

Has Arctic sea ice cover been this small since the start of the industrial revolution?
Has sea ice ever declined this rapidly in the historical record?
How is sea ice affected by natural fluctuations over multiple decades?

To tackle this problem we set about constructing a record of sea ice going back to 1850. And this meant gathering data from some rather unusual sources. ...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 (https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Archimid on August 11, 2016, 07:46:19 PM

wow. Thank you Sigmetnow. This is bad news, since it confirms suspicions, but at least it brings a sense of certainty.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on November 05, 2016, 10:11:25 PM


VERY Cool? Giant snowballs!

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37883003 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-37883003)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: plinius on November 17, 2016, 12:52:14 AM
Quite exciting feature - suppose though that it was rather (sea-)iceballs rounded by mutual abrasion in the tidal/wave breaking zone?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on November 18, 2016, 11:53:35 PM
Great!!!  ;)

"On its way out, Obama administration moves to slam the door shut on Arctic drilling"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/18/on-its-way-out-obama-administration-tries-to-slam-the-door-shut-on-arctic-drilling/?utm_term=.c7d02c938791&wpisrc=al_alert-hse (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/18/on-its-way-out-obama-administration-tries-to-slam-the-door-shut-on-arctic-drilling/?utm_term=.c7d02c938791&wpisrc=al_alert-hse)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on November 19, 2016, 01:53:22 PM
I'm afraid this door can be unslammed should the new folks in DC so desire.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sleepy on November 19, 2016, 03:38:18 PM
Mr T's friend on the other side will keep the doors open.
www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/1114092/ (http://www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/1114092/)
And this in Yamal:
http://www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/1114988/ (http://www.gazprom-neft.com/press-center/news/1114988/)
Quote
A new oilfield has been discovered at the Zapadno-Chatylkinsky license block, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, under licence to Gazprom Neft subsidiary Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz. Drilling of three exploratory wells has revealed six independent oil deposits, with total geological reserves estimated at more than 40 million tonnes, subsequently confirmed by the State Commission on Mineral Reserves.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SteveMDFP on November 19, 2016, 09:08:21 PM
I'm afraid this door can be unslammed should the new folks in DC so desire.

Depends.  Most regulatory decisons and content rest on a foundation of legislation.  Laws have to be changed for most regulations to be revised quickly.

The Republicans in Congress can't now pass whatever legislation they like, as long as Senate Democrats retain the power to filibuster.

There is, paradoxically, a risk to Democrats deciding to be highly assertive in exercising this power.  That is, the power to filibuster can be revoked in the Senate with a simple majority vote.

The Republicans are, I think, unlikely to revoke this power unless they're pushed to severe frustration.  After all, if the power is revoked for use by Democrats now, then the Republicans won't have that power whenever the Democrats are back in the majority.

The key to minimizing the rollback in progress (on many fronts) may lie in Democrats allowing some significant rollbacks on some significant fronts.  It's a challenging strategic position for both sides of the aisle.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Pettit on November 20, 2016, 02:25:10 PM
The key to minimizing the rollback in progress (on many fronts) may lie in Democrats allowing some significant rollbacks on some significant fronts.

So, roll over and play dead for the next four years? Six? Eight?

No.

The left has spent the past eight years trying to compromise in the spirit of bipartisanship only to see very little progress on very few fronts because their opponent's primary--and perhaps only--plank was to obstruct and say no. That eight years was more than enough to drive home the lesson that one should never argue with drunks or crazy people. So no rollbacks; no relenting; no capitulation. The answer isn't for us to cower and throw more olive branches at the feet of the Right; they only gather up those boughs and light them in huge bonfires while laughing at us. No, we have to fight; we have to defend what we can. And we will.

(There are a number of reasons Clinton lost two weeks ago, and one of them was a Democratic Party unwilling or unable to show enough spine to get things done; young people, especially, saw no one championing that which they acre about, so they stayed home. In droves. We can't let that happen again.)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: be cause on November 20, 2016, 02:36:30 PM
come on .. there are other places for bollock ticks (sorry .. politics )
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: budmantis on November 20, 2016, 06:29:58 PM
Because all the Republicans have done in the last eight years is stonewall, I have to agree with Jim. There may be areas were both parties agree, but based on what we've seen so far since the election, there may be very little room for accommodation. It's time to push back, hard.

Apologies for continuing off topic discussion.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: be cause on November 20, 2016, 06:37:30 PM
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr !
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: helorime on November 22, 2016, 07:27:44 PM
Did everyone see this?  https://www.newscientist.com/article/2113493-global-sea-ice-has-reached-a-record-low-should-we-be-worried/ (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2113493-global-sea-ice-has-reached-a-record-low-should-we-be-worried/)  Wipneus' graph in New Scientist article
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: charles_oil on December 01, 2016, 12:42:39 PM
Let there be maps....

Modern day explorers from the Arctic nations of Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Russia, and the United States are setting their sights north to map the seabed and establish sovereign rights to resources in an icy area that just over a decade ago was virtually inaccessible.

http://coastguard.dodlive.mil/2016/11/mapping-the-extended-continental-shelf-in-the-arctic/ (http://coastguard.dodlive.mil/2016/11/mapping-the-extended-continental-shelf-in-the-arctic/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 06, 2016, 07:23:32 PM
Ryan Maue:  Upper-level atmosphere configuration very similar in scale & magnitude as infamous Jan 2014 #PolarVortex popularized by me and @afreedma
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/806176153031602176

Eric Holthaus:  Huge burst of unseasonable warmth heading from Russian Arctic toward North Pole this week. In some places, 60 degrees F warmer than "normal"
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/806181605593055232

James Warner:  Huge surface air temperature anomalies over the Arctic this working week... over 25C warmer than average in parts. #Arctic
(Stunning animation at the link:  https://twitter.com/metmanjames/status/805716431711174656 )
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on December 06, 2016, 07:44:52 PM

NSIDC update is out for December:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: FishOutofWater on December 06, 2016, 09:07:50 PM
Yes, sigmet, I wrote about the coming blast of heat to Siberia and the Arctic, and the blast of cold from the Arctic and Siberia to north America a few days before those folks did. I just checked the story and discovered it got a life on Facebook. Not viral, but over 9000 shares.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/02/1606465/--Siberian-air-Will-Blow-to-U-S-as-Polar-Vortex-Breaks-Down-Jet-Stream-Crosses-North-Pole (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/12/02/1606465/--Siberian-air-Will-Blow-to-U-S-as-Polar-Vortex-Breaks-Down-Jet-Stream-Crosses-North-Pole)

I considered x-posting it here but life interfered.

I try to simplify the story for general audiences. I know that there is a Eurasian polar vortex and a north American polar vortex at 500mb in the winter months but didn't want to confuse folks with too many details. Meteorology can be quite confusing. I have been trying to better my understanding of the physics of tropospheric/stratospheric interactions and it made my head hurt. Now I have a better understanding of blocking highs like the one that's happening now, but part of my improved understanding is that I don't understand it very well. The physics of large blocking highs, like this one is ridiculous.

The vortex displacement goes up to very high levels of the stratosphere. Low potential vorticity over North America and high potential vorticity over Siberia is apparently enhancing the developing blocking pattern over the Beaufort sea side of the Arctic.

Image source: Free University of Berlin
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: logicmanPatrick on December 07, 2016, 01:32:13 AM
@Fishoutofwater - I've linked to your article in my blog.  You may recognise the blog title:
'Something is wrong in the Arctic'.  :-)

@all - please do drop by The Chatter Box and leave comments.  I will try to keep up the blogging momentum while Neven has a rest.

http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/something_is_wrong_in_the_arctic-180763 (http://www.science20.com/the_chatter_box/blog/something_is_wrong_in_the_arctic-180763)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Cid_Yama on December 13, 2016, 01:34:03 AM
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research
New expedition in Laptev Sea suggests increase in the rate of underwater permafrost degradation.
Quote
'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'

Five years ago Semiletov reported:
Quote
'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...

'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.

'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."

The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was  funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
link (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on December 13, 2016, 03:39:39 AM
Trump, Putin, and ExxonMobil team up to destroy the planet

https://thinkprogress.org/trump-putin-and-exxonmobil-team-up-to-destroy-the-planet-fb88650acfa1#.fjjxe2uhp (https://thinkprogress.org/trump-putin-and-exxonmobil-team-up-to-destroy-the-planet-fb88650acfa1#.fjjxe2uhp)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 13, 2016, 04:26:44 AM
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research
New expedition in Laptev Sea suggests increase in the rate of underwater permafrost degradation.
Quote
'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'

Five years ago Semiletov reported:
Quote
'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...

'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.

'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."

The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was  funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
link (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/)

You should cross post this on the Permafrost topic.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: aarneg on December 13, 2016, 05:10:14 AM
Hey people,

Just joined the forum. Here's some news from Arctic Norway - Bodø exactly. Temperatures been warm for a while as you can see from the Yr statistics.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod (http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod)ø/Bodø/statistics.html

I study climate change and politics here within the UArctic system.

/aarne
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Adam Ash on December 13, 2016, 12:29:02 PM
Quote
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

A. Send this info to President Trump
B. Watch with 'interest' as oil exploration ships and rigs operate and flare waste gas within an ocean populated by kilometer-scale methane plumes.  Be interesting to see the Health and Safety Plan for that job!!!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on December 18, 2016, 08:43:57 PM
Hey people,

Just joined the forum. Here's some news from Arctic Norway - Bodø exactly. Temperatures been warm for a while as you can see from the Yr statistics.

http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod (http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod)ø/Bodø/statistics.html

I study climate change and politics here within the UArctic system.

/aarne

Welcome aarne
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 18, 2016, 09:37:28 PM
A belated welcome from me too, aarne.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: anotheramethyst on December 31, 2016, 04:06:30 AM
Quote
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'

A. Send this info to President Trump
B. Watch with 'interest' as oil exploration ships and rigs operate and flare waste gas within an ocean populated by kilometer-scale methane plumes.  Be interesting to see the Health and Safety Plan for that job!!!

When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mhampton on December 31, 2016, 05:18:21 PM
When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.

No offense but I think you're being naive about the scale of effort these companies are willing to put into such a project.  I mean this is just a normal oil rig base:

(https://twistedsifter.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/steel-jacket-being-towed-offshore-esa-shell.jpg)

and I'm sure they have large teams of competent engineers trying to figure out how they need to beef the rigs up.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on December 31, 2016, 10:47:45 PM
When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice.  Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere.  Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place.  I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil.  So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane.  Of course, I'm no geologist lol.  I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on.  It's just not feasible.  An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.

No offense but I think you're being naive about the scale of effort these companies are willing to put into such a project.  I mean this is just a normal oil rig base:

(https://twistedsifter.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/steel-jacket-being-towed-offshore-esa-shell.jpg)

and I'm sure they have large teams of competent engineers trying to figure out how they need to beef the rigs up.
I don't think anotheramethyst was suggesting they wouldn't do it, nor that they wouldn't put scads of engineers to work on the problems.

Mostly I think what he (and I) believe, is that greed will over come sensibility, and expedience triumph over caution.  Compound this with how little experience humanity has with major engineering projects in the Arctic, should energy companies aggressively pursue oil and gas extraction there, both he and I think there are catastrophic events awaiting us in the Arctic's future.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: anotheramethyst on January 06, 2017, 09:56:31 PM
Thanks JD :) yes, that's exactly what I meant.  I was trying to be funny but I guess I should have been more serious about it.    It's not the lack of skilled engineers or technology, it's the sheer unpredictable wildness of the arctic.  I don't think an oil rig of any kind can be built to withstand the Arctic for any reasonable length of time.  And incidentally, I've seen offshore drilling rigs in person. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: DoomInTheUK on January 10, 2017, 11:00:19 AM
I can't see the oil being drilled any time soon. I think it's more of a book keeping exercise.
There's no way that producing this oil will be cost effective, but having an extra few hundred million barrels of proven reserve increases the company value.

There would need to be HUGE reserves there - fields in the billion barrel range, for it to be remotely cost effective to produce. We haven't found fields like that for many years.

At the moment, anyone trying to set up new production of offshore oil in the Arctic will lose a whole lot of money. Should the price of oil go back up around $100 a barrel then maybe...but then oil that high will crash the economy.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: DrTskoul on January 10, 2017, 01:36:57 PM
I can't see the oil being drilled any time soon. I think it's more of a book keeping exercise.
There's no way that producing this oil will be cost effective, but having an extra few hundred million barrels of proven reserve increases the company value.

There would need to be HUGE reserves there - fields in the billion barrel range, for it to be remotely cost effective to produce. We haven't found fields like that for many years.

At the moment, anyone trying to set up new production of offshore oil in the Arctic will lose a whole lot of money. Should the price of oil go back up around $100 a barrel then maybe...but then oil that high will crash the economy.

Up in the Arctic a well costs $1B ...dud or not..Also reserves might be large but nobody has yet to discover a large enough field to justify drilling for production. Engineering-wise, doable. There is a lot of research on ice movement and mechanics to allow them to engineer a platform. The only issue is cost.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Buddy on January 10, 2017, 02:17:55 PM
The race in the Arctic is going to be between the soon to come declining oil demand (due to both efficiency and the ever creeping UP of renewable power use)......and increased cost of drilling in the Arctic.

If costs are NOT going to warrant drilling from an economic standpoint.....it won't happen.  At least not much of it will happen.  Total....the French energy company (oil and gas...+...they own more than 50% of Sunpower the solar company).....promised several years ago that they would NEVER drill in the Arctic.  They are forward looking....and are not tied in to just fossil fuels.....they see what is coming down the road.

As electric cars begin to push into the mainstream in a couple of years.....and as a raft of new electric cars hit the road....demand for oil will weaken even more.  The economics of the situation are becoming clearer and clearer several years out:  Oil is dying in the transportation industry.....whether Trump and Putin like it or not.

In a couple of years...people will begin to "hold off" on buying fossil fuel cars because they know they will be worthless a few years after they buy them.  They will either buy an electric car...or wait a year or two until an electric car comes out that they like.  And ALL the automakers have a bunch of new electric cars coming out in the next 2 - 3 years (including BMW, Porsche, Ford,  ALL OF THEM).  That will be another "significant point" in the timeline of fossil fuels long term death spiral.  I think we are only a couple years away from that NEXT "tipping point".

Just like "malls".......fossil fuels are dying.  The retail outlet "The Limited" is closing ALL their mall stores they just announced.  ALL.  It always amazes me how "late to the party" some people in corporate America are.  People knew malls were dying in the US 10 years ago.  The same can be said for fossil fuels now.....but some companies continue to try and hang on....instead of looking for a way out (like the French company Total has done).











Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: marcel_g on January 10, 2017, 03:12:17 PM
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Renewables and EVs now look like they're inevitable (eg. Tesla's rubber is hitting the road, as they've started actual battery production at the Gigafactory, Samsung just announced a next gen battery ), but on the other hand oil and coal and gas still occupy something like 90% of energy consumption, compared to 1-2% for renewables, so we really don't know if renewables are going to get deployed fast enough to win this one. Their deployment rates will have to keep doubling every few years, which is possible, but I'm not sure if it'll be enough. Kevin Anderson sure doesn't think we will avoid catastrophe.

Things will get really interesting if there is an oil supply restriction that causes an oil price spike in 2018 ( https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/brace-for-the-financial-crash-of-2018-b2f81f85686b#.jsj28dalh ) - would an economic crash cause people to switch to EVs faster, or would they hang on to their ICEs for longer because of economic uncertainty? Or would a global economic crash slow down capital expenditures on renewables? Or would it restrict riskier expenditures like Arctic drilling? Russia is probably committed to Arctic exploration no matter what happens or what the cost is, I expect Putin to double down no matter what. His whole structure of power is based on producing oil.

There is also much talk of the developing world leapfrogging coal based grids and going straight to distributed renewables, much as they leapfrogged landline telephones and went straight to cells, but if they're starving and impoverished due to climate induced droughts + a global financial meltdown, will that transition actually happen? I guess that depends on the proportion of people in the developing world who are affected that way compared to the number of people who manage to stay out of poverty.

I check sites like cleantechnica every day, just to look for some positive news in this ongoing battle. I have no idea how it's going to go, except that even if we as the human race do really well, we're still going to get into a climatic danger zone somewhere over 2C. The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: anotheramethyst on January 11, 2017, 08:17:10 AM
The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.

I love that!  100% agree, and I will also steal this quote and use it often.  sorry but you can't stop me ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Buddy on January 11, 2017, 03:28:11 PM
Quote
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Agree....and agree with most of the rest of your post.  It is indeed a race.  Remember that the O&G industry moves with LONG lead times.  Somebody (or many of them) are going to get "hung out to dry" in coming years and over the next decade.

We don't KNOW when that supply/demand curve is going to top out...and begin its break DOWNWARD.  I believe we know it WILL HAPPEN.

It is truly going to be interesting to watch because there will be SIGNIFICANT WINNERS....and SIGNIFICANT LOSERS on many fronts:

1)  Equity markets (companies that will be winners and losers.....as well as those who invest in those companies)
2)  States and countries who make the "right" moves early on.....and those that don't (Russia is going to be in even more serious trouble)
3)  Oh yes....that blue planet we live on.  Winner?  Loser?  Just how stupid will we be before we make a HARD TURN towards renewables.
4)  Politicians:  Look forward to the coming 12 months.  I have my paint brushes handy...and looking forward to painting politicians with their own words and deeds.  Here in Georgia...where we have an over abundance of idiots in the political sphere.....I will need a LOT of brushes. ;D

Interesting times indeed......and the Arctic is an incredibly important battleground for multiple reasons.

And in the words of the immortal Babe Ruth:  "It's hard to beat a person who never gives up."

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: marcel_g on January 11, 2017, 06:41:49 PM
The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.

I love that!  100% agree, and I will also steal this quote and use it often.  sorry but you can't stop me ;)
no worries anotheramethyst!  8)

I'm pretty sure I borrowed that idea from Robert Scribbler and Alex Steffen.

cheers
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: marcel_g on January 11, 2017, 06:47:12 PM
Quote
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.

Interesting times indeed......and the Arctic is an incredibly important battleground for multiple reasons.

And in the words of the immortal Babe Ruth:  "It's hard to beat a person who never gives up."

Go get 'em Buddy! I also agree with Obama and McKibben and everyone else that it's going to be people power that forces the changes. The looming Trumpist nightmare in the US might be a serious set back for a while, but people over there in the US, and here in Canada, and everywhere, need to keep fighting for every 0.1C limit we can get.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Michael J on January 19, 2017, 10:32:53 AM
The Oil and Gas industry have invested heavily into right wing governments who will subsidise any arctic drilling.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: helorime on January 20, 2017, 09:28:02 PM
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS.  Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice?  NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Andre on January 20, 2017, 09:37:41 PM
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS.  Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice?  NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.

Vox provides a nice overview of the changes:

http://www.vox.com/2017/1/20/14338342/trump-white-house-energy-page (http://www.vox.com/2017/1/20/14338342/trump-white-house-energy-page)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on January 20, 2017, 11:00:50 PM
Continue discussion here (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1790.msg99971.html#msg99971).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: martalunde68 on February 19, 2017, 05:54:22 PM
European Union considers to prohibit the use and carriage of heavy-fuel oil for vessels calling at EU ports.
(Read this https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/02/eu-wants-ban-heavy-fuel-arctic (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2017/02/eu-wants-ban-heavy-fuel-arctic) )
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: bairgon on February 20, 2017, 08:35:29 AM
"Ice-locked ship to drift over the North Pole"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39024227 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-39024227)

Quote
Germany is going to sail its 120m-long research vessel, the Polarstern, into the sea-ice at the top of the world and just let it get stuck so it can drift across the north pole.

The 2,500km (1,550-mile) trip, to begin in 2019, is likely to take a year.

Researchers hope to gather valuable new insights on the region where Earth's climate is changing fastest.

Last month the extent of Arctic sea-ice was the lowest ever recorded for a January (during the satellite era), with temperatures several degrees above the long-term average.

Prof Markus Rex will lead the so-called MOSAiC project:

"The decline of Arctic sea-ice is much faster than the climate models can reproduce and we need better climate models to make better predictions for the future.

"There is a potential that in a few decades the Arctic will be ice free in summer. That would be a different world and we need to know about that in advance; we need to know is that going to happen or will that not happen?"

Hopefully they will have some ice to drift with...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 20, 2017, 04:07:26 PM
"Ice-locked ship to drift over the North Pole"

This is old news, but don't forget that Tara did something similar not so very long ago. The DAMOCLES project!

http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/opensource/cryosphere/documents/Trapped_in_the_ice_OER_2.pdf (http://geography.exeter.ac.uk/opensource/cryosphere/documents/Trapped_in_the_ice_OER_2.pdf)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: martalunde68 on February 20, 2017, 06:30:50 PM
Scientists to repeat 19th-century ship's crossing of polar ice cap

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/20/scientists-to-repeat-19th-century-fram-ships-crossing-of-polar-ice-cap (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/20/scientists-to-repeat-19th-century-fram-ships-crossing-of-polar-ice-cap)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on February 20, 2017, 07:24:39 PM
Hopefully they will have some ice to drift with...
My thoughts exactly!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: longwalks1 on February 20, 2017, 07:30:44 PM
For a trip down Fram-Nansen memory lane. open source translations of Nansens "Furthest North" Vol. I and II.
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/30197 (http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/30197)
http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/34120 (http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/34120)

Although neither the ship nor the sledges floated - walked to the actual North Pole, it was truly an monumental expedition. 

Hopefully the MOSAIC expedition will lead as charmed a life and bring back data and ideas. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Mr.Far on February 21, 2017, 10:51:55 PM
North Pole research ship RV Polarstern to be frozen in Arctic ice so scientists can study weather patterns:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2908150/north-pole-research-ship-rv-polarstern-to-be-frozen-in-arctic-ice-so-scientists-can-study-weather-patterns/ (https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2908150/north-pole-research-ship-rv-polarstern-to-be-frozen-in-arctic-ice-so-scientists-can-study-weather-patterns/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on February 22, 2017, 10:15:58 AM
Welcome, Mr.Far, your profile has been released.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: sidd on March 24, 2017, 04:25:09 AM
open access paper  about the arctic ice sheet before the Eemian (last interglacial) 140 Kyr ago.

Grounding of the shelf on the Lomonosov Ridge adds spice. Read all about it.

doi:10.5194/tc-2017-37

sidd
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Laurent on March 26, 2017, 06:05:27 PM
The link doesn't seem to work...!?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: sidd on March 26, 2017, 08:31:15 PM
http://dx.doi.org (http://dx.doi.org) is the place to go. Put in the string following doi: into their search box and it will take you to the paper.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Adam Ash on March 27, 2017, 12:15:16 AM
Barneo 2017 being established.

https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu/?fref=nf (https://www.facebook.com/BarneoRu/?fref=nf)
'The floe for Barneo is approved! It’s coordanates: 89º50'N 103º08'E. Temperature is -24ºС, it’s clear.'

Good to know there is some decent ice still there, albeit only about 20 km from the North Pole! 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 27, 2017, 10:19:21 PM
Barneo 2017 being established.

Not  so new on the ASIF though!  See the dedicated thread:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1905)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Cate on March 30, 2017, 06:24:10 PM
Not sure where to put this, parking it here----"increased sea ice and iceberg activity since last weekend" is threatening oil drilling operations off the east coast of Newfoundland. Precautionary measures are being taken to prevent damage to production and storage facilities.

This is not unusual. Ice is an expected seasonal hazard for oil production in this area.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/searose-iceberg-1.4047254 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/searose-iceberg-1.4047254)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Andre on April 07, 2017, 06:29:56 AM
There has been plenty of talk about Atlantic waters having a greater impact on the Arctic, so this seems a fitting article to provide some additional insight:

Warm Atlantic waters wage a new assault on Arctic ice from below

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/warm-atlantic-waters-wage-new-assault-arctic-ice-below (http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/04/warm-atlantic-waters-wage-new-assault-arctic-ice-below)

Abstract:

A new enemy is undermining ice floating on the Arctic Ocean: heat from below.

Sensors that have plumbed the depths of Arctic seas since 2002 have found warm currents creeping up from the Atlantic Ocean and helping drive the dramatic retreat of sea ice there over the last decade. A new study shows this “Atlantification” of the Arctic Ocean as a new, powerful driver of melting, alongside losses due to rising air temperatures.

The paper shows “a massive shift” in the behavior of the Arctic Ocean over a short time, says Finlo Cottier, a physical oceanographer with the Scottish Association for Marine Science in Oban who was not part of the study team. “Here we’re seeing an ocean basin changing on a generational timescale—or less,” he adds.

[...]

The result, he says, is an increased “Atlantification” of the Arctic, where the eastern side of the Eurasian basin is becoming more like the western side, the team reports today in Science. The top of the Atlantic water, according to one mooring, had risen from a depth of 140 meters in the winter of 2003–04 to a depth of 85 meters just a decade later. Without summer sea ice forming to establish the CHL, he says, the ocean mixes more—and less ice forms.

On the eastern side of the Eurasian basin, say Polyakov and his colleagues, air temperatures were the main culprit for ice melting in the 2000s. Now, however, they believe air temperatures and warm waters share the blame about equally. Polyakov says a positive feedback loop is underway, in which less summer sea ice will lead to warmer winter waters and even less summer ice in subsequent years. One unknown is how the addition of massive flows of freshwater from Siberian rivers, bolstered by thawing permafrost, could affect the system, says study co-author Eddy Carmack, an oceanographer with Fisheries and Oceans Canada in Sidney. That new freshwater could encourage more sea ice to form on the basin, unless winds wash the new water away.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Rick Aster on April 07, 2017, 09:00:41 PM
A different take on the same study is provided by Brian Kahn at https://www.wunderground.com/news/climate-change-atlantic-ocean-arctic-sea-ice?__prclt=ktJcsr69 (https://www.wunderground.com/news/climate-change-atlantic-ocean-arctic-sea-ice?__prclt=ktJcsr69) "Parts of the Arctic Ocean are Turning Into the Atlantic and That's Not Good." A key point mentioned frequently in previous discussions on Arctic Sea Ice Forum: ocean layers are breaking down.

Quote
The ocean has become gradually less stratified since the 1970s. Using data from buoys and satellites, Polyakov and his colleagues have found a more marked shift over the past decade and a half. Since 2002, the difference in water temperatures between the layers has dropped by about 2°F.

A likely point of confusion: here, "eastern" refers to the Eastern Eurasian Basin, not the Canadian Basin and Beaufort Sea region that might also be referred to as "eastern" in the Arctic Ocean. Similarly, "western" refers to the Western Eurasian Basin. The main point of the paper, from my read of this article, is that the movement of Atlantic Water from the Western Eurasian Basin into the Eastern Eurasian Basin in recent years is bigger than you would imagine by looking at the ice edge.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Blizzard92 on May 13, 2017, 04:19:52 AM
I wasn't sure where to post this, but I thought it may be of interest to some people. Recent work from my lab group on springtime extreme moisture transport into the Arctic and the subsequent sea ice response.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD026324/full (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD026324/full)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Andre on May 19, 2017, 11:44:59 PM
So much for the seed vault being built for eternity...  :-\

Arctic stronghold of world’s seeds flooded after permafrost melts

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-seeds-flooded-after-permafrost-melts (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-seeds-flooded-after-permafrost-melts)

Abstract:
"It was designed as an impregnable deep-freeze to protect the world’s most precious seeds from any global disaster and ensure humanity’s food supply forever. But the Global Seed Vault, buried in a mountain deep inside the Arctic circle, has been breached after global warming produced extraordinary temperatures over the winter, sending meltwater gushing into the entrance tunnel.

The vault is on the Norwegian island of Spitsbergen and contains almost a million packets of seeds, each a variety of an important food crop. When it was opened in 2008, the deep permafrost through which the vault was sunk was expected to provide “failsafe” protection against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters”.

But soaring temperatures in the Arctic at the end of the world’s hottest ever recorded year led to melting and heavy rain, when light snow should have been falling. “It was not in our plans to think that the permafrost would not be there and that it would experience extreme weather like that,” said Hege Njaa Aschim, from the Norwegian government, which owns the vault."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Darvince on May 20, 2017, 06:46:47 AM
Now the seed vault must be moved to Antarctica?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 20, 2017, 03:39:43 PM
Did the guys who decided to put the seed vault where it is on Spitzbergen get their climate change forecasts from Breitbart News, and / or Scott Pruitt and / or Lamar Smith ?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on May 20, 2017, 08:55:56 PM
Did the guys who decided to put the seed vault where it is on Spitzbergen get their climate change forecasts from Breitbart News, and / or Scott Pruitt and / or Lamar Smith ?
They were using the best information they had at the time using the resources available. There is no need to insult them.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: no1phul on May 20, 2017, 09:45:20 PM
To Blizzard92:

Thank you for posting the link to your lab's work on extreme moisture transport events to the high arctic.  As a working meteorologist for the past 35 years with a long interest in climate change, I appreciate your efforts to disseminate research of this nature. 

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: 1rover1 on June 13, 2017, 04:52:04 PM

A Canadian Ice breaker was diverted from a Science Mission in the arctic to rescue missions off Newfoundland due to dangerous ice conditions.

About 40 scientists from five Canadian universities were scheduled to use the icebreaker CCGS Amundsen for the first leg of a 133-day expedition across the Arctic. It's part of a $17-million, four-year project led by the University of Manitoba that looks at both the effects of climate change as well as public health in remote communities.

http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/manitoba/climate-change-study-1.4157216 (http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/manitoba/climate-change-study-1.4157216)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mamooth on June 14, 2017, 07:07:53 PM
That article doesn't seem right to me. They say they detected multi-year ice in the Strait of Belle Isle. I don't see how such ice could get there, as Baffin Bay and the Labrador coast melt out completely each year. Old ice would have to come through Nares and then push all the way through the Baffin Bay and Labrador sea ice, in the winter when the ice isn't very mobile.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: 1rover1 on June 14, 2017, 09:32:53 PM
Good question Mamooth. I just checked the Canadian Ice service report and they report the following in the Strait :  "Special ice warning in effect.  1 tenth of first-year ice including a trace of old ice. Unusual presence of sea ice."

https://weather.gc.ca/marine/forecast_e.html?mapID=14&siteID=16100#warnings

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: BFraser on June 15, 2017, 04:49:51 PM
Here's a newer story which will hopefully shed more light:

http://www.newsweek.com/arctic-climate-change-study-amundsen-cancelled-due-global-warming-625536 (http://www.newsweek.com/arctic-climate-change-study-amundsen-cancelled-due-global-warming-625536)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 12, 2017, 07:26:04 PM
NOAA:  Arctic Report Card 2017
Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades

Despite relatively cool summer temperatures, observations in 2017 continue to indicate that the Arctic environmental system has reached a 'new normal', characterized by long-term losses in the extent and thickness of the sea ice cover, the extent and duration of the winter snow cover and the mass of ice in the Greenland Ice Sheet and Arctic glaciers, and warming sea surface and permafrost temperatures.

Highlights

- The average surface air temperature for the year ending September 2017 is the 2nd warmest since 1900; however, cooler spring and summer temperatures contributed to a rebound in snow cover in the Eurasian Arctic, slower summer sea ice loss, and below-average melt extent for the Greenland ice sheet.
- The sea ice cover continues to be relatively young and thin with older, thicker ice comprising only 21% of the ice cover in 2017 compared to 45% in 1985.
- In August 2017, sea surface temperatures in the Barents and Chukchi seas were up to 4° C warmer than average, contributing to a delay in the autumn freeze-up in these regions.
- Pronounced increases in ocean primary productivity, at the base of the marine food web, were observed in the Barents and Eurasian Arctic seas from 2003 to 2017.
- Arctic tundra is experiencing increased greenness and record permafrost warming.
- Pervasive changes in the environment are influencing resource management protocols, including those established for fisheries and wildfires.
- The unprecedented rate and global reach of Arctic change disproportionally affect the people of northern communities, further pressing the need to prepare for and adapt to the new Arctic.

More here:  http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card/Report-Card-2017
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on December 14, 2017, 04:53:38 AM


https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/arctic-temperatures-rising-fast-reported-false_us_5a316487e4b07ff75affaa1f?ncid=inblnkushpmg00000009

“Arctic Temperatures Are Rising So Fast Computers Don’t Believe They’re Real

An algorithm concluded a weather station in northern Alaska must have broken because it was reporting such high temperatures.”
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: philiponfire on December 16, 2017, 03:30:44 AM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5182717/Global-warming-Alaska-tricked-computer-DELETE-data.html 

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on December 18, 2017, 09:37:13 PM
“Polar scientists are starting to refer to the New Arctic (their caps), because they’re not quite sure what’s coming next.”

Let it go: The Arctic will never be frozen again
Quote
Last week, at a New Orleans conference center that once doubled as a storm shelter for thousands during Hurricane Katrina, a group of polar scientists made a startling declaration: The Arctic as we once knew it is no more.

The region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state, the scientists said, with wide-ranging ramifications for ecosystems, national security, and the stability of the global climate system. It was a fitting venue for an eye-opening reminder that, on its current path, civilization is engaged in an existential gamble with the planet’s life-support system.

In an accompanying annual report on the Arctic’s health — titled “Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades” — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees all official U.S. research in the region, coined a term: “New Arctic.”
...
http://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be-frozen-again/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on December 18, 2017, 11:33:36 PM
“Polar scientists are starting to refer to the New Arctic (their caps), because they’re not quite sure what’s coming next.”

Let it go: The Arctic will never be frozen again
Quote
Last week, at a New Orleans conference center that once doubled as a storm shelter for thousands during Hurricane Katrina, a group of polar scientists made a startling declaration: The Arctic as we once knew it is no more.

The region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state, the scientists said, with wide-ranging ramifications for ecosystems, national security, and the stability of the global climate system. It was a fitting venue for an eye-opening reminder that, on its current path, civilization is engaged in an existential gamble with the planet’s life-support system.

In an accompanying annual report on the Arctic’s health — titled “Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades” — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees all official U.S. research in the region, coined a term: “New Arctic.”
...
http://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be-frozen-again/
While I tend to agree with their assessment, I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen, and I distrust any pronouncements that "definitively" project anything.

For all we really know the CO2 might cause an extreme negative feedback and a new ice age.  I don't think so, but I don't KNOW otherwise.

I'm still watching, day by day.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 19, 2017, 02:15:14 AM
meh...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Pmt111500 on December 19, 2017, 04:39:21 AM
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on December 19, 2017, 10:38:51 PM
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.

On the topic: What's new in the Arctic ?
 :o  :o  ::)  ;D  ;D

That will be really new in the Arctic, specially on December 19!!!  ;D
Has to be very mystical!!!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Shared Humanity on December 20, 2017, 02:25:45 AM
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.

For all we really know the sun might simply fail to appear on a cloudless day, plunging us into perpetual night.  I don't think so, but I don't KNOW otherwise.

I'm still watching day by day.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on January 20, 2018, 03:24:06 PM
The climate, Russia, energy….

“How a Melting Arctic Changes Everything”

Part 1, The Bare Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/

Part 2, The Political Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-political-arctic/

Part 3, The Economic Arctic:
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2017-arctic/the-economic-arctic/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Dharma Rupa on January 29, 2018, 09:55:26 PM
I wasn't too sure where to throw this, but I just heard a Uniquely Greenlander description of climate change and I wanted to share it: "If you are out in -30 degree weather and you pee in your pants you will be warm for a few minutes."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: martalunde68 on February 15, 2018, 12:05:24 PM
At a December meeting of climate scientists in New Orleans, a team from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared that “the Arctic as we’ve known it is now a thing of the past”. Ocean surface warming and decline in sea ice show no sign of returning to the reliably frozen region of past decades.
As the ice pulls back, corporations and governments are moving in.
In June 2018, Russia will host the International Symposium on Ice to be attended by as many as 250 experts from Southeast Asian countries, Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, and Australia. The event will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University (https://arctic.ru/international/20180206/714435.html).
Moscow puts high hopes on this meeting as it can help to intensify international cooperation in the Arctic despite the current political situation. Moreover, it’s a good opportunity to discuss the burning problems linked with the ice and hydraulic issues in the high seas and rivers on the top expert level.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Mr.Far on February 16, 2018, 11:46:30 AM
In June 2018, Russia will host the International Symposium on Ice to be attended by as many as 250 experts from Southeast Asian countries, Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, and Australia. The event will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University (https://arctic.ru/international/20180206/714435.html).

Vladivostok and the Arctic problems? Ha! As I see on the map Vladivostok is about as far south as you can get in Siberia, and it’s really not near the Arctic at all. In fact, sitting on the shoes of the Pacific Ocean, it enjoys a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate. Hasn’t Russia got a more Arctic-oriented city to be chosen as a host-city for the event?!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on February 16, 2018, 01:07:40 PM
In June 2018, Russia will host the International Symposium on Ice to be attended by as many as 250 experts from Southeast Asian countries, Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, and Australia. The event will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University (https://arctic.ru/international/20180206/714435.html).

Vladivostok and the Arctic problems? Ha! As I see on the map Vladivostok is about as far south as you can get in Siberia, and it’s really not near the Arctic at all. In fact, sitting on the shoes of the Pacific Ocean, it enjoys a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate. Hasn’t Russia got a more Arctic-oriented city to be chosen as a host-city for the event?!
A cynic such as I might think that such an event may be merely an environmental fig-leaf to cover Russia's real agenda - which is to secure political, military, economic and industrial domination of the Arctic. And with a lot of political and financial help from China, implementation of the strategy  is going very well.

Perhaps a more Arctic-orientated city would demonstrate too obviously the physical manifestations of that implementation? (Ice-breakers, LNG tankers and terminals, military hardware, mining equipment et al.)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: martalunde68 on February 17, 2018, 07:26:10 PM
Vladivostok and the Arctic problems? Ha! As I see on the map Vladivostok is about as far south as you can get in Siberia, and it’s really not near the Arctic at all. In fact, sitting on the shoes of the Pacific Ocean, it enjoys a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate. Hasn’t Russia got a more Arctic-oriented city to be chosen as a host-city for the event?!

You are partly right. Of course they could have chosen Yakutsk, the so-called “coldest city on earth” or Magadan on the Sea of Okhotsk for example.

Vladivostok forms the eastern end of the Northern Sea Route and the terminus of the Trans-Siberian Railway, so it is well connected to other parts of the Arctic and Siberia both by sea and by land.

Vladivostok is also one of Russia’s scientific centers for Arctic studies. The Far Eastern Federal University's School of Engineering boasts the Arctic international center providing research support for new projects on the continental shelf of the northern seas. Each year, the University organizes a winter school for Russian and foreign students who work with natural ice, study the specifics of building ice-resistant vessels and high-seas engineering structures.

By the way, from January 29 to February 9 fifty three students and young scientists from China, the Republic of Korea, Japan and Canada took part in Ice Mechanic Winter School,the unique ice research in Russia (http://www.dvfu.ru/en/news/enternational_cooperation/fefu_winter_school_participants_are_exploring_50_000_m_of_ice_on_russky_island/).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Alex Bellin on February 18, 2018, 07:07:04 PM
As for me, any conference is a good opportunity for people with common interests to meet and discuss hot issues. Russia is a major Arctic country and has great historical experience of High North exploration as well as a state-of-the-art knowledge to share. So, it is natural for Russia to hold such conference.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 22, 2018, 06:02:19 PM
“Sea ice in the Bering Sea is at stunning record low levels. Without ice as a buffer, Alaska coastal villages are no longer protected from big storms and their giant waves. Buildings are crumbling. See video at the link below, & read more here: wapo.st/2ENhgWr “
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/966700103280062465
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on February 22, 2018, 08:23:38 PM
“Sea ice in the Bering Sea is at stunning record low levels. Without ice as a buffer, Alaska coastal villages are no longer protected from big storms and their giant waves. Buildings are crumbling. See video at the link below, & read more here: wapo.st/2ENhgWr “
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/966700103280062465
Thankyou Sigmetnow,

What a great link - Washington Post article is all about what Journalism needs to be. Data from several sources stacked up and reinforcing each source. Stick it up your pipe, Fox News, Breitbart.
It is salutary to see from the video what we discuss so much in this forum means in reality.

I followed the twitter link to :-
Brian Brettschneider
@Climatologist49
PhD Climatologist. Alaskan. Global warming is real. Alaskana. Mooseologist. Very stable genius.

from whom I stole the nice graph attached

and from there to:
Rick Thoman‏
@AlaskaWx
Follow Follow @AlaskaWx

Quote
One of these years is not like the others: Bering Sea ice extent as of Feb 21 from @NSIDC is now <30% of the 1981-2010 median value. Or, if you prefer, 3.6 standard deviations below the mean.

The next few days will tell us more
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on February 23, 2018, 09:55:21 PM
“At this very moment, the temperature in the high Arctic is at a wintertime record high.
Never in our recordkeeping has it been this warm between early November and late March -- in the midst of 24-hour Arctic night. ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/967114799627763712

“Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic.
Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line   http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/  “

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/967112763033047040
Image below.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: be cause on February 23, 2018, 10:21:46 PM
Yes Sigmetnow .. even more extraordinary given that these are on average the coldest days of the Arctic winter . Sunday may well be warmer !  Most concerning to me is that this time last year the Arctic was freezing hard . If there is not a spell of similar respite  this year the ice is in BIG trouble . The next 10 days are looking warmer with every model run ..  .. meanwhile here in Northern Ireland I may need to prepare for a wandering Polar Vortex ..  bc
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2018, 10:42:18 PM
In the stuff from zlabe and holthaus in the above recent posts no acknowledgement to DMI (80+temps) or NSIDC (Bering Sea). Tut tut - after all it is they who do the grunt work that we freely use.

End of grumpy post.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Blizzard92 on February 23, 2018, 11:14:01 PM
In the stuff from zlabe and holthaus in the above recent posts no acknowledgement to DMI (80+temps) or NSIDC (Bering Sea). Tut tut - after all it is they who do the grunt work that we freely use.

End of grumpy post.

No. I provide direct references to the DMI on the actual graph itself and in my link with the caption. I tag the NSIDC in every post in reference to the Bering Sea ice graphs. The data source is always acknowledged. I upload all of my code on my GitHub for complete open access of the science... https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs (https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on February 23, 2018, 11:23:48 PM
In the stuff from zlabe and holthaus in the above recent posts no acknowledgement to DMI (80+temps) or NSIDC (Bering Sea). Tut tut - after all it is they who do the grunt work that we freely use.

End of grumpy post.

No. I provide direct references to the DMI on the actual graph itself and in my link with the caption. I tag the NSIDC in every post in reference to the Bering Sea ice graphs. The data source is always acknowledged. I upload all of my code on my GitHub for complete open access of the science... https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs (https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs)
The Grumpy Old Man offers a grovelling apology. I am just jealous - your visuals are just too damn good.
Ps: have they given you your Ph. D. Yet ? If not, I'll send the boys around to make them an offer they can't refuse.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Blizzard92 on February 23, 2018, 11:27:53 PM
No problem - thank you! My goals in science communication are to provide everyone with the ability to access/find and understand the information presented... so it is very important to me that all sources are acknowledged :)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on February 24, 2018, 01:03:31 AM
I just keep on coming back to those 80N DMI numbers, looking at them in disbelief.  It is temps we shouldn't be seeing for another 90 days, and is fully 5C warmer than the peaks in 2017, 2016 and 2015.

It's later as well, which after an already too-warm fall and start of winter, is going to be just awful for the ice.  It could be like last year if the temperatures hadn't cooled back down (at right about this time, in fact...)

To top it, we have rising insolation as well, so even if cold returns, it will be fighting that as well.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on February 24, 2018, 11:02:14 AM
No problem - thank you! My goals in science communication are to provide everyone with the ability to access/find and understand the information presented... so it is very important to me that all sources are acknowledged :)

I used your graph in the latest ASIB blog post (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/02/global-sea-ice-records-broken-yet-again.html), stating: 

Quote
There's so much heat coming into the Arctic from both sides that the temperature north of 80° is spiking to new record heights, as shown on Zack Labe's rendition of the DMI 80N temperature graph, and it will most probably climb some more:

A rather elegant reference to all sources, if I say so myself (I can be a bit sloppy at times).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2018, 06:39:24 PM
The linked Scribbler article examines the relationships between Sudden Stratospheric Warming events. Polar Amplification and the recent high frequency of Polar Vortex events:

Title: "Sudden Stratospheric Warming and Polar Amplification: How Climate Change Interacts With the Polar Vortex"

https://robertscribbler.com/2018/02/28/sudden-stratospheric-warming-and-polar-amplification-how-climate-change-interacts-with-the-polar-vortex/

Extract: "Over the past few years, the term Polar Vortex has dominated the broadcast weather media — gaining recent notoriety due to increasingly extreme weather events associated with a number of disruptions to Arctic atmospheric circulation patterns. In short, this swirl of cold air over the furthest north regions is being intensely disrupted by warm air invasions — both at the surface and in the upper levels of the atmosphere. A subject that we’ll explore further as part of this analysis."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Wherestheice on March 02, 2018, 09:54:07 AM
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-21159-6

Siberian atmospheric rivers?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jplotinus on March 04, 2018, 12:31:17 AM
There’s a new island in the Arctic, discovered by teenage Russian students:

https://www.rt.com/news/420384-russian-teenagers-discover-arctic-island/

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Phil. on March 04, 2018, 05:51:16 PM
“At this very moment, the temperature in the high Arctic is at a wintertime record high.
Never in our recordkeeping has it been this warm between early November and late March -- in the midst of 24-hour Arctic night. ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/967114799627763712

“Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic.
Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line   http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/  “

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/967112763033047040
Image below.

This graph made it onto a piece on CNN this morning!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on March 04, 2018, 06:16:19 PM
Good for CNN!  ;D
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on March 04, 2018, 06:51:02 PM
What's new in the Arctic to me is the great change in all the ways we can see it. A big big thankyou to the scientists who made it happen and the contributors to ASIF who have made it possible for people like me to see this amazing story unfold.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: FredBear on March 06, 2018, 02:56:12 PM
There are no current conditions on the Kimmirut WebCams page since 19 Jan except the Airport and forecasts:-

Observed at: Kimmirut Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EST Tuesday 6 March 2018
Sunny
Sunny    Temperature: -17.1°C
Sunrise: 6:28 EST
Sunset: 17:13 EST
Normals:
Max -20°C. Min -30°C.

Followed by:-

 Extended Forecast - Environment Canada
Tuesday                 Max: -10°C
   Wednesday    Max: -9°C
   Thursday       Max: -10°C
   Friday           Max: -8°C
   Saturday       Max: -9°C
   Sunday         Max: -12°C
   Monday         Max: -13°C
Tuesday Night                  Min: -17°C
   Wednesday night      Min: -15°C
   Thursday night         Min: -11°C
   Friday night             Min: -12°C
   Saturday night         Min: -13°C
   Sunday night           Min: -14°C
    
Every time I look at it there seems to be much less cold than there should be?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on March 16, 2018, 01:46:35 AM
The fast-melting Arctic is already messing with the ocean’s circulation, scientists say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/the-melting-arctic-is-already-messing-with-a-crucial-part-of-the-oceans-circulation-scientists-say/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2018/03/14/the-melting-arctic-is-already-messing-with-a-crucial-part-of-the-oceans-circulation-scientists-say/?wpisrc=nl_green&wpmm=1)

Quote
In the new research, Marilena Oltmanns and two colleagues at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, found that following particularly warm summers in the remote Irminger Sea, convection tended to be more impaired in winter. In some cases, a layer of meltwater stayed atop the ocean into the next year, rather than vanishing into its depths as part of the overturning circulation, which has sometimes been likened to an ocean “conveyor belt.”
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on March 16, 2018, 03:50:59 AM
https://robertscribbler.com/2018/03/15/polar-warming-spawns-more-severe-winter-storms/#comment-139055

Polar Warming Spawns More Severe Winter Storms


Quote
So there’s a lot of groundbreaking work going on in the climate sciences right now. And a major focus is evidence that winter polar warming events are increasingly connected to blizzards and storms in places like Europe and North America. Storms that are both historically powerful and that occur with greater frequency...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on March 20, 2018, 10:36:32 PM
There’s a new island in the Arctic, discovered by teenage Russian students:

Any idea, where exactly this new little island has been discovered?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: DavidR on March 21, 2018, 08:37:14 AM
Novaya Zemlya archipelago

https://www.rt.com/news/420384-russian-teenagers-discover-arctic-island/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on May 11, 2018, 05:55:11 AM
Quite interesting article on increasing flows of Atlantic and Pacific waters into the Arctic and the resulting changes in wildlife.

Quote
A new paper by University of Washington oceanographer Rebecca Woodgate, for example, finds that the volume of Pacific Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait surged up to 70 percent over the past decade and now equals 50 times the annual flow of the Mississippi River. And over on the Atlantic flank of the Arctic, another recent report concludes that the Arctic Ocean’s cold layering system that blocks Atlantic inflows is breaking down, allowing a deluge of warmer, denser water to flood into the Arctic Basin.

Quote
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.

https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-waters-neighboring-seas-are-flowing-into-a-warming-arctic-ocean

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 11, 2018, 04:06:00 PM
Great link.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mitch on May 11, 2018, 05:33:29 PM
Thanks for the link--very well written. Fundamentally what we observe is that the weakening of the pycnocline increases the heat buffer in the Arctic, lengthening the ice-free season, and reducing ice thickness. I wonder if the winter heat loss keeps the system relatively linear. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Forest Dweller on June 03, 2018, 08:39:26 AM
The Russians have discovered a new way of breaking ice by submarines creating resonance.
Although they only tested in swimming pools the concept is known to work with hover crafts.
Submarines traveling at 10 kmph will create the required waves that clear the ice and are more practical for going long distances and avoiding damage.
The aim is to open the north east passage connecting Europe and Asia.

https://www.volkskrant.nl/wetenschap/het-ijs-breken-kan-straks-misschien-ook-met-onderzeeers~bfd446a2/
(in Dutch)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: johnm33 on June 19, 2018, 10:43:02 PM
I was trying to figure out what caused the wave pattern emerging in Beaufort around the 12th.
(https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/navo/beaufortictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
best i could come up with so far is Atlantic water pouring off the ESAS into the deep forcing wave action in the basal waters of the Canadian basin. If thats the case what's next? Or is there a better explanation?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on June 26, 2018, 04:33:55 PM
`Atlantification’ of Barents Sea tipping it towards new climate regime
Quote
Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says.

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.

If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.
Quote
But, in recent years, scientists have documented the “Atlantification” of the Barents sea as an increased inflow of Atlantic water has enlarged the area where sea ice cannot form. This has resulted in decline in ice extent on the Barents Sea, particularly in eastern areas.

Using decades of data collected from ships and satellites, the new study investigates the causes behind these changes, finding that they are, ultimately, caused by rising temperatures in the Arctic and the associated decrease in sea ice.

Sea change

Sea ice plays a key role in keeping the northern Barents Sea in its Arctic climate regime. In addition to the sea ice that forms on its surface, the region receives an “import” of sea ice each year, blown in from the central Arctic by the wind.

When the imported sea ice melts in spring and summer, it provides an influx of freshwater to the Barents Sea. This cold, fresh water top-ups the Arctic layer of the northern region, helping to maintain the stratification that works as a barrier to the warm Atlantic waters below.

But the amount of ice the Barents Sea receives each year is declining. The average annual area of ice import during 2000-15 was around 40% smaller, on average, than during 1979-2009, the study finds. The decrease in volume of sea ice imported “was even larger”, the study says, at approximately 60%. ...
https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on July 20, 2018, 07:45:26 PM
Reconstruction of Arctic Barents-Kara sea ice extent changes over the last millennium

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-reconstruction-arctic-barents-kara-sea-ice.html

(https://i.imgur.com/8cgcNxU.jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on July 21, 2018, 09:13:34 AM
Thanks for this Steven.
FWIW, the reference is to sea ice extent around the minimum.

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11430-017-9196-4 (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11430-017-9196-4)

Quote
Abstract
Using high-resolution ice core and tree ring proxies for sea ice extent (SIE), we reconstructed a robust time series of autumn SIE over the Barents-Kara (B-K) sector of the Arctic from AD1289–1993. After intercomparing the results and statistical parameters using the ordinary least squares regression (OLSR), the principle component regression (PCR) and the partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods, SIE time series were synthesized into a more robust series using the weighted average method, which used the explained variances as weights. The results showed that from the end of the 13th century to the end of 18th century, the autumn B-K SIE was large, with large variations and a slightly expanding trend overall. This reflected significant multidecadal oscillations under the Little Ice Age (LIA) background. The B-K SIE began to decrease at the end of the 18th century, and a shrinking trend became significant during the second half of the 19th century, which lasted into the 1930s–1940s. The 1930s–1940s was a period with a relatively low SIE in the B-K Sea, and the SIE had a short period of expansion from the 1940s–1970s. However, the B-K SIE has continuously and significantly shrank since the 1970s. The reduction in the B-K SIE since the end of the 18th century has been unprecedented in both duration and speed over the last 700 years. The B-K SIE has retreated significantly since the 1970s, with a speed 6.18 times greater than the former mean retreating speed. The industrial revolution may be a dominant factor in this result. The Arctic SIE in recent years may be the lowest it has been over the last millennium.

Quote
Considering the significance of proxy data (e.g., tree rings can only reflect climatic conditions during the growing seasons, which are mainly in summer and autumn) and the fact that ice-free conditions may emerge in the B-K area in September, we reconstruct Arctic sea ice in the B-K Sea during August and October (defined as autumn here).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 20, 2018, 10:38:26 AM
A very interesting paper in Nature on sudden thawing of permafrost under thermokarst (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9) lakes.

Quote
Abstract

Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

Quote
Abrupt thaw implications

While the cumulative land area subject to abrupt thaw lake formation is less than one tenth of permafrost land areas (Supplementary Fig. 4e, f), our modeling results (Fig. 4), supported by field work (Figs 1 and 5) and remote sensing (Fig. 3), show that an increase in the volume of newly thawed sub-lake sediments through expansion of existing and formation of new thermokarst lakes is likely to yield disproportionately large releases of 14C-depleted permafrost carbon to the atmosphere this century.

...

In contrast to shallow, gradual thaw that may rapidly re-form permafrost upon climate cooling, deep, CH4-yielding abrupt thaw is irreversible this century. Once formed, lake taliks continue to deepen even under colder climates17, mobilizing carbon that was sequestered from the atmosphere over tens of thousands of years. The release of this carbon as CH4 and CO2 is irreversible in the 21st century. This irreversible, abrupt thaw climate feedback is large enough to warrant continued efforts toward integrating mechanisms that speed up deep permafrost-carbon thaw and release into large-scale models used to predict the rate of Earth’s climate change.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sebastian Jones on August 21, 2018, 08:51:14 PM
A disturbing development in the Bering Sea- historically the north Bering has been divided from the south by a pool of cold water that is a result of ultra cold brine sinking from the sea ice to the bottom. The location of this cold barrier varies from year to year, but in 2018 it is entirely absent for the first time in the 37 year record.
This means that more southern species such as pollock are moving into the Bering Strait area, displacing indigenous species such as capelin and sand lance, disrupting the food web and is probably the cause of hitherto unexplained die-offs of sea birds. While the physical conditions in the Bering are unique, and very different to the arctic ocean in general, the vanishing of this latitudinal stratification has troubling implications for the retention of sea ice, not just in the Bering but in the wider arctic as well.
http://www.nomenugget.net/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea (http://www.nomenugget.net/news/noaa-survey-shows-shocking-lack-thermal-barrier-between-northern-and-southern-bering-sea)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: sidd on August 29, 2018, 11:37:23 PM
Beaufort Gyre halocline heating up:

"Arctic Ocean measurements reveal a near doubling of ocean heat content relative to the freezing temperature in the Beaufort Gyre halocline over the past three decades (1987–2017). This warming is linked to anomalous solar heating of surface waters in the northern Chukchi Sea, a main entryway for halocline waters to join the interior Beaufort Gyre. Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage. It is shown that the solar heating, considered together with subduction rates of surface water in this region, is sufficient to account for the observed halocline warming.

"The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition, lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter.

With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region. However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off."

Open. Read all about it.

doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aat6773

sidd
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 29, 2018, 11:50:33 PM
Hullo Sidd,

Beaufort Gyre halocline heating up:

You put this paper in the right thread, others have cluttered up the melting season thread.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jacksmith4tx on August 30, 2018, 03:32:48 PM
'Archived' heat has reached deep into the Arctic interior, researchers say
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html

Quote
Arctic sea ice isn't just threatened by the melting of ice around its edges, a new study has found: Warmer water that originated hundreds of miles away has penetrated deep into the interior of the Arctic.

That "archived" heat, currently trapped below the surface, has the potential to melt the region's entire sea-ice pack if it reaches the surface, researchers say.

The study appears online Aug. 29 in the journal Science Advances.

"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.

The upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years, the researchers said. They traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming. In turn, Arctic winds are driving the warmer water north, but below the surface waters.

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Cid_Yama on August 30, 2018, 08:22:57 PM
It's only a matter of time.  Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone.  Pretty clear we only have a couple years left.  And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: josh-j on August 30, 2018, 09:35:24 PM
It's only a matter of time.  Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone.  Pretty clear we only have a couple years left.  And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...

Not to say that I disagree, more that I don't understand - but is it not the case that extent and volume are higher this year than 2012 when it looked like collapse could be imminent? I'm sure we could get unlucky any time soon and sooner or later yes the inevitable will happen, but a couple of years left?

I've looked at the recent AMSR2 images and don't know enough to know whether I should be alarmed, but from a simplistic novice perspective things look better this year than they have in (some) past years - acknowledging of course the relentless downward spiral.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on August 30, 2018, 09:43:22 PM
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year


There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2018, 10:54:10 PM
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year


There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).

Below I quote the discussion part of the study. There are two threads in that discussion (it seems to me)..

Heat will continue to accumulate at depth especially with more open water in the Chukchi during the high insolation period in summer As a result, there will be more heat coming up all year round, reducing winter ice growth. The study does not suggest a sudden event when 30 years worth of accumulated heat suddenly burps to the surface and poof, no ice. (See the last sentence in the extract below).

If surface water temperature in the Chukchi reaches, say, 13 celsius, the density of this salty water will drop and subduction under the cooler fresher water would stop.

It adds to my and others speculation that it is winter sea ice that is going to be strongly reduced as in the last 2 years. But if subduction stops ?

_____________________________________________________________
EXTRACT FROM THE STUDY
DISCUSSION
Implications and outlook


The doubling of BG halocline heat content over the past three decades
appears attributable to a warming of the source waters that ventilate the
layer, where this warming is due to sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea that
leave the surface ocean more exposed to incoming solar radiation in
summer. The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus
not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition,
lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has
consequences far beyond the summer season. Strong stratification and weak mechanical mixing in the BG halocline ensure that significant
summertime heat remains in the halocline through the winter.


With continued sea ice losses in the Chukchi Sea, additional heat may continue to be archived in the warm halocline. This underscores the far-reaching implications of changes to the dynamical ice-ocean system in the Chukchi Sea region.

However, there is a limit to this: Once the source waters for the halocline become warm enough that their buoyancy is affected, ventilation can be shut off. Efficient summertime subduction relies on the lateral surface front in the NCS region between warm, salty water that is denser to the south and cooler, fresher water that is less dense to the north. For longer-duration solar warming (that is, longer-duration ice-free conditions in the region), SSTs on the south side of the front may become warm enough (around 13°C, under the assumption of a 1.5-month ice-free period dominated by solar absorption) that the lateral density gradient is eliminated.

It remains to be seen how continued sea ice losses will fundamentally change the water column structure and dynamics of the Arctic halocline. In the coming years, however, excess BG halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Richard Rathbone on August 30, 2018, 11:45:15 PM
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year


There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.

This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.

Wow!

I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).

Read the paper rather than a journalists sexed-up account of it. Its worth reading, the articles about it aren't.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2018, 11:59:37 PM
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.

there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year



Read the paper rather than a journalists sexed-up account of it. Its worth reading, the articles about it aren't.

I did, and agree with you. I wrote my thoughts about it earlier on this thread and was moved to repeat the post with an acid comment on the new thread "Holy Sh!te" that I hope Neven will do something about - at least to change the thread title.

The conclusions by the article bear little or no resemblance to the hyperbolic drivel (as above) being thrown around like confetti.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Bruce Steele on August 31, 2018, 12:11:20 AM
This paper postulates that 2018 may see cyclonic conditions like  2017 in the Beaufort. A relaxation of Ekman pumping and a cyclonic spin to the Beaufort gyre may be releasing accumulated surface fresh water and some of the deeper accumulated heat via transpolar drift and the garlic press. Fish out of water has been highlighting the large flows moving out through the garlic press over the last month.

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=66597

"
Our analysis of recent changes in the atmospheric forcing over the Arctic Ocean (Proshutinsky et al., 2018) for the entire 2017 showed that the atmospheric circulation regime in 2017 was predominantly cyclonic (for the first time since 1997), with a small anticyclonic cell in the southeastern BG region. SLP distributions in 2016-2017 were similar to conditions observed in 1988-1989 when the 1983-1988 ACCR shifted to a CCR that lasted from 1989-1996 (Proshutinsky et al., 2015). We hypothesize that the 2017 shift to CCR could be a precursor for a CCR to dominate for the next 3-5 years, resembling the 1989-1996 tendencies. A cyclonic regime has generally been associated with some increase and stabilization of sea ice extent, intensification of Atlantic water transport via Fram Strait, weakened Siberian river runoff, decreased BG FWC, and FW release to the North Atlantic (Proshutinsky et al., 1999).  It is also expected that sea ice extent minimum in 2018 will be similar to 2017 or increased because cyclonic winds keep sea-ice in the Arctic which reduces rates of ice melt due to ice-albedo feedback. Therefore, continuing BGOS observations in 2019 and 2020 are likely to detect and quantify FW release from the BG region, which has never been documented before."

IMHO The heat that has been accumulating in the Beaufort may potentially exit the Arctic without mixing upward into the surface mixed layer.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Richard Rathbone on August 31, 2018, 12:16:28 AM
There's a PIOMAS paper from 2011 that it reminded me of

Modeling the formation and fate of the near‐surface temperature maximum in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean, Michael Steele, Wendy Ermold, and Jinlun Zhang

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2010JC006803

Ekman pumping in the Gyre. Similar amounts of heat being held below the surface each year compared to the 20 year accumulation the recent one found. Most of it found to leak back up over winter, but its no great surprise that a small bit of it goes down and stays down.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 31, 2018, 12:27:59 AM
Having warm salty water under the Arctic has always been the case; It's part of the freeze/thaw cycle and Arctic runoff that generates the stratification in the summer and the mixed layer in the winter. 50m is well below the mixing level of storms caused by swell; unless there is eckman pumping or coastal upwelling it won't see the surface.

The extra heat added is enough to melt about 0.6m of ice, and perhaps more worryingly, the density difference in the pycnocline drops by about 4% in the top 100m from what it was, reducing resistance to mixing.

28 psu water has a density of ~1022.57 at its freezing point -1.46°C, and 31 psu seawater has a density of ~1022.59 at 14°C so it wouldn't sink. But a small amount of cooling would cause the more saline water to sink below the surface, but, as the density gradient in the halocline is reduce, more mixing will happen.

Basically; not good, but not a herald of incipient doom. That heat has been building for a while.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wili on August 31, 2018, 12:58:21 AM
Sooo, should we never pay any attention to what the lead author of a major paper says she thinks is significant about it?
Quote
"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University...

"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said.

"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."

https://phys.org/news/2018-08-archived-deep-arctic-interior.html#jCp
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: doogi on September 09, 2018, 03:21:59 PM
Ironbark Zinc took advantage of the poor ice conditions north of Greenland and chartered the ice breaking bulk carrier Nunavik for a tour to Citronen fjord as a proof of concept for their mine in the fjord.

http://sermitsiaq.ag/milepael-naaet-ironbark-projektet
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on October 22, 2018, 02:33:33 PM
Aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman strikes north of the Arctic Circle (https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=107489) ...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: litesong on October 24, 2018, 12:14:54 AM
Aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman strikes north of the Arctic Circle (https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=107489) ...
No, its the Aircraft Carrier Harry S. Truman Strike Group, north of the Arctic Circle......
The U.S. military is belatedly showing its presence in the Arctic, well past a year after russian military nuclear ships have been escorted through the Arctic Northeast Passage along siberian north coastal waters by a russian nuclear icebreaker, during much more vaunted exercises.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on October 26, 2018, 10:47:17 AM
Quote
Interior Department officials announced their approval Wednesday of a company’s plan to drill for oil six miles off the Alaskan coast in the shallow waters of the Beaufort Sea.
If the development by Hilcorp Energy moves forward, it would be the first oil and gas production facility in federal waters in Alaska, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke said in the announcement, a major victory for the oil industry and a blow to conservation groups that fought it, fearing a possible leak in a sensitive and pristine natural environment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/24/trump-administration-just-approved-plan-drill-oil-alaskas-federal-waters-its-major-first/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/24/trump-administration-just-approved-plan-drill-oil-alaskas-federal-waters-its-major-first/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on October 27, 2018, 09:47:37 PM
Melting Glaciers at Novaya Zemlya Contain Radiation From Nuclear Bomb Tests (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2018/10/melting-glaciers-novaya-zemlya-contain-radiation-nuclear-bomb-tests)

Quote
A science expedition to the area has discovered “large concentrations of radioactivity” in the ice – and concludes that the glaciers are melting into the sea at record speed.

The primary goals for the Russian researchers were to study whether hundreds of containers with dumped radioactive waste in the Kara Sea were leaking or not.

Sailing the Kara Sea and the bays along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya (http://www.nuclear-risks.org/en/hibakusha-worldwide/novaya-zemlya.html) from August 17th to September 20th, the researchers on board “Akademik Keldysh” conclude there are good reasons to continue monitoring the dumped containers, but preliminary results gives no indications of leakages. However, especially one barge that was discovered at 400 meters depth, filled with radioactive waste containers, requires special attention for the future. Underwater footages show the barge is destroyed and some containers have fallen out and are spread on the seafloor, news agency TASS reports.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c9/Tsar_photo11.jpg/220px-Tsar_photo11.jpg)

More worrying is the radiation discovered in the glaciers stretching out in the waters.

From 1957 to 1962, a total of 86 nuclear bomb tests were carried out in the atmosphere at Novaya Zemlya. The tests include the largest nuclear devices ever exploded, like the so-called 58 megatons Tsar-bomb (https://www.thevintagenews.com/2018/07/09/tsar-bomba/) on October 30, 1961.

It is the fallout from these tests that now are about to melt out to the sea.

... Explaining how the glaciers in the area are retreating, the researchers tell how “Akademik Keldysh” sailed to the point in Blagopoluchiye Bay where the Vershinsky glacier in 2014 ended in the sea. Today, that spot was more than 2 kilometers out from where the terminus of the glacier is now.

(https://www.thevintagenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/site-of-the-detonation.jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sleepy on November 04, 2018, 09:35:33 AM
Surprise, not.
Pjotr Velikij has entered the Barents Sea to perform combat training missions.
https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12202623 (https://function.mil.ru/news_page/country/more.htm?id=12202623)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sleepy on November 04, 2018, 10:43:54 AM
One person is reported dead and Russia’s only aircraft carrier has been damaged as floating dry dock sinks into the waters of the Kola Bay.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2018/10/aircraft-carrier-damaged-dry-dock-sinks (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2018/10/aircraft-carrier-damaged-dry-dock-sinks)

That dry dock was built by Götaverken/Arendal in Gothenburg, the last ship that was built there was icebreaker Oden.

A lazy translation attempt by myself from this one:
http://www.migrationinstitute.fi/files/pdf/julkaisuja-sarja/j19-isbn-978-952-7167-44-1-tung-metall-lamer-migrationsinstitutet-2017.pdf (http://www.migrationinstitute.fi/files/pdf/julkaisuja-sarja/j19-isbn-978-952-7167-44-1-tung-metall-lamer-migrationsinstitutet-2017.pdf)

The shipyard delivered the world's largest floating dock Nb 910 number 50 to Murmansk.
This floating dock is a chapter by itself, Arendal had won a big international bidding in March 1978 and the Soviet Union ordered the giant dock to be delivered to Murmansk during the next fall. The dock was unique to its size, 330 meters long, 90 meters wide and 30 meters high. Building time was 18 months. A test run was scheduled for August and prominent Russian experts would attend to make sure everything was done right. Then the dock would be towed to Murmansk along the Norwegian coast. The preparations for the test trip were meticulous, since the dock was extremely large and hard to manoeuvre.
On the test trip in August 1979, it turned out that the weather report was not correct at all. Even the sea route showed to be an unfortunate choice. The worst thing was, however, that when they started testing the functions of the dock, there were confusion between the responsible representatives for the manufacturer and the Russian experts about responsibility for command and the dock was injured. It was claimed that the Russian vodka culture should have played a part. The construction was towed back to Arendal and because the delivery was imminent, they gathered all availble forces so that the repair could be made on schedule.
It was a Dutch company that started to tow the giant dock against Murmansk. It was during an autumn storm and the towing became difficult. But arriving at the harbor the storm threw the dock
towards the beach so hard, that it suffered severe damage. It was towed to Kirkenes in Norway for repair. Almost on the day, one year later, the dock finally arrived in Murmansk in September 1980. After this unfortunate start, the dock received ambiguous names like; Russian Doll or Rag Doll and it has become somewhat of a legend.


Dock is Docka in Swedish, which also means Doll.
That Rag Doll survived itself but finally met it's destiny, at the bottom of the ocean.

Edit; can't resist adding that picture (from the pdf above) of Oden from when she was built at Arendal.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Wipneus on November 07, 2018, 09:54:48 AM
The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issued a small news report (what they call climate-message).

The message is that the decline of Arctic Sea Ice has been mostly in thickness, not area. And that will change when the ice get thinner. The consequence of this is that Arctic warming will amplify as AlbertoAlbedo will drop.

On twitter one of the scientists speculates that Arctic amplification will increase from current 2-3 to future 4-5.

The message (https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/arctisch-zee-ijs-wordt-vooral-snel-dunner) is in Dutch, but should be readable with Google translate:

Quote
We need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.

(https://cdn.knmi.nl/system/updates/image1s/000/002/766/large/2018_10_23__Richard_fig1.png?1539355619)

Quote
Figure 1. Future simulation of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) and sea ice surface (SIA) showing that the sea ice thickness is decreasing nowadays, while in the future the sea ice surface will decrease.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: FrostKing70 on November 07, 2018, 03:48:55 PM
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Wipneus on November 07, 2018, 05:31:41 PM
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?
Spell checker mess.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on November 07, 2018, 09:06:40 PM
The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issued a small news report (what they call climate-message).

The message is that the decline of Arctic Sea Ice has been mostly in thickness, not area. And that will change when the ice get thinner. The consequence of this is that Arctic warming will amplify as AlbertoAlbedo will drop.

On twitter one of the scientists speculates that Arctic amplification will increase from current 2-3 to future 4-5.
Quote
We need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.

I agree, which is personally pleasing. Area to me is very important as the less area of ice there is means the greater area of open water with consequent major change to the climate / weather where it is happening. That is why I developed over the last few months an analysis of open water vs sea ice for each of the 14 seas to track the change in each sea (1980 to 2018) from icy deserts to maritime open ocean at various periods of the year and the entire year. (Just looking at trends in the minimum, a one day observation, is not good enough?)

Volume alone surely is not the answer, as volume is thickness x area, and loss of area surely changes the climate ?

Examples attached:-
The area above the line is ice, below the line is open water.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on November 08, 2018, 09:34:02 PM
Here is the link to that message from KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute)

https://www.knmi.nl/over-het-knmi/nieuws/arctisch-zee-ijs-wordt-vooral-snel-dunner

Google will translate it for you. I remember a long discussion about whether the ice would get thinner and thinner, i.e. slow area loss, or would sea ice area loss catch up with volume loss.

They think area must catch up, but of course no guesses from them on when.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: litesong on November 09, 2018, 07:18:53 AM
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?
Maybe they painted the "OH, Boy Alberto" hydroplane a darker color. But I don't think they renamed it to Albedo.  ;D
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on November 09, 2018, 10:17:41 AM
Very strong earthquake, 6.7 on the Ricther scale, to the west of Jan Mayen (https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/earthquakes/2018/11/09/01h49/magnitude6-JanMayenIslandRegion-quake.html), unusally strong for the Mid-Atlantic ridge. Not very likely to have any effect on sea ice!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on November 09, 2018, 11:06:25 AM
I wonder if it could have some effect on calving activity in eastern Greenland.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: pikaia on November 14, 2018, 08:23:57 PM
Impact crater 19 miles wide found beneath Greenland glacier.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/nov/14/impact-crater-19-miles-wide-found-beneath-greenland-glacier
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sleepy on November 14, 2018, 09:22:34 PM
Thanks pikaia.
I like the last quote by Kjær:
Quote
“We live on a planet where you can survey anything and you think you know everything,” said Kjær. “But when you see such a big thing as this hiding in plain sight, you realise that the age of discovery is not over yet.”
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on December 11, 2018, 08:40:46 PM
Not that we don't know, but it is always good to see it at the news…

Quote
Over the past three decades of global warming, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95 percent, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Arctic Report Card.

The finding suggests that the sea at the top of the world has already morphed into a new and very different state, with major implications not only for creatures such as walruses and polar bears but, in the long term, perhaps for the pace of global warming itself.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.769a171a3d17&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.769a171a3d17&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1)

NOAA Arctic Report Card:
https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card (https://www.arctic.noaa.gov/Report-Card)

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=XntO9a-NpeM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=XntO9a-NpeM)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on December 13, 2018, 07:38:31 AM
A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The Arctic Is Breaking Climate Records, Altering Weather Worldwide (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-arctic-is-breaking-climate-records-altering-weather-worldwide/)

Quote
The Arctic is changing exactly the way scientists thought it would but faster than even the most aggressive predictions. The recent behavior is off the charts.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on December 14, 2018, 09:27:10 AM
Thanks for calling this to attention

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist. Not sure if she's American, but certainly she shows what she wants to show for her goal-article. And it's not that I disagree, but the way she presents it.

"The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, breaking at least a dozen major records in the past three years."
Now it is convenient to look at recent winters, but not summers.
What if the current warm winter three-year period is internal climate variation that can reverse quickly? Does she know for a fact that it is not, and can be extrapolated for other thirty years? But doesn't matter, people will only remember the loomy plots that she presents concerning recent three years. Quite a climatological span of time to draw conclusions.

"Sea ice is disappearing, air temperatures are soaring, permafrost is thawing and glaciers are melting."
Ok. That's news (sarcastically)

"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on December 14, 2018, 10:28:03 AM
Yes well I've always thought of Scientific American as more journalism than science, although the science articles tend to be of a much better quality than in most other popular publications.

But I'm not sure how harshly the author can be judged based on the three "in brief" bulletpoints that appear before the article itself, which I found to be quite well argued and with the usual caveats.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 14, 2018, 12:49:47 PM
A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on December 14, 2018, 01:13:26 PM
A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.
She is one of a rare species, a damn good scientist willing to challenge conventional wisdom, and a damn good communicator.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on December 14, 2018, 01:22:27 PM
A new article ...

Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on December 14, 2018, 02:12:05 PM
A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:

The article is from April 1st.

Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.

First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.
Ok sorry for the mistake on the journal name.
Alarmist or not, a scientist should be more restrained the way he or she communicates. We have seen over the years a number of star scientists (not many fortunately) to make bold assertions that have proven wrong by now,... Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 14, 2018, 02:49:37 PM
Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.

And I only saw the intro on my second visit! Sorry, all cleared up now.  :)

Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.

Anything is possible, but I'm willing to bet my house/farm that this isn't Francis' goal.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on December 14, 2018, 03:03:02 PM
"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.

Jennifer Francis has been talking about the alterations of the Jet Stream for several years. This video 5 years old proves that. In climate, we have to wait years to prove that a theory is right. Now, I still think that Jennifer was right 5 years ago. So, from my point of view, Jennifer Francis is an excelent scientist and time is proving that she is right in her theories.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAiA-_iQjdU (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAiA-_iQjdU)

Edit:
I like more this second video, published Feb 26, 2013:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: jdallen on December 14, 2018, 07:31:16 PM
Concur with Juan.

Francis has been ahead of the curve describing some of the phenomena we see currently.

There is nothing ulterior in her communicating about it, no is it alarmist.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on December 14, 2018, 09:26:53 PM
Concur with Juan.

Francis has been ahead of the curve describing some of the phenomena we see currently.

There is nothing ulterior in her communicating about it, no is it alarmist.
I don't doubt that. Also I am not going to bet against Neven on these matters.
I wish some scientists kept rigor not going too far in their assertions. Al Gore is one thing, a scientist doing as Al Gore is a clown.
I am pretty sure too that I am not in the majority here with this wish.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on December 14, 2018, 09:59:05 PM
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Title: Re: What's OLD in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on December 14, 2018, 10:13:28 PM
I posted this on the unsorted thread, but I think I should have put it here
____________________________________________________________________
One of the few benefits of increasing age is having read stuff written in the 20th Century.

Once upon a time I had a precious book, "The Sea Around Us" written in the late 1940's by Rachel Carson (yes - the author of "Silent Spring") and published in 1951. It was 86 weeks in the best seller list of the New York Times. I foolishly lent it to a "friend".

A stray memory took me to the library, and to my amazement they were able to find me a copy to borrow, and my memory was right. There is a chapter on Arctic Sea Ice and the changing to a warmer climate since about 1900. The basics are all there, retreating sea ice, melting Norwegian glaciers, fish and birds moving north, longer growing seasons and new sea routes open. The basic science is there concerning a layer of cold freshwater overlying warmer, saltier water. Which brings me to submarine waves and Otto Petersson, who published in 1912 a paper "Climatic variations in historic and prehistoric time".

His contention was that the strength of submarine waves depends on the gravitational force exerted by the sun, moon and planets which in turn depend on orbital variations, and that these submarine waves have a far greater amplitude than surface tides. He calculated the most recent major period of maximum tidal action as in AD 1433, the most recent minimum at AD 450 , and the next minimum at AD 2400.. He also calculated minor cycles every 9, 18 and 36 years.

This variation in tidal action was sufficient to force the major changes in the Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and from that the European climate.

Is it not possible that this science is still valid as a force that can enhance or reduce the effects of AGW? That mixing between that cold freshwater surface layer and deeper warmer, saltier water can be increased during periods of higher tidal action and reduced during periods of lower tidal action? And that in turn depends on variations in the orbits of the planets that are easily calculated using the mathematics of Newton?

Here is the link to Petersson's paper. Fascinating stuff, and think on the years it took to get all the data together.

http://www.mitosyfraudes.org/calen12/petterson_1.html
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on December 14, 2018, 10:35:57 PM
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: magnamentis on December 14, 2018, 11:28:23 PM
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.

That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.

But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)

a scientist who acts like al gore is a clown and considering who you were talking about it is an insult, further the way of posting was insulting in tone and words and yes, alarmist in the way you and other mean it, to discredit someone, put him/her into a specific drawer with little credibility, is indeed insulting and not only that, it's one of the worst insult of all insults to destroy or damage someone's credibility without other reason than not liking what a person has to say, at least as long as it's not obvious that a statement is either wrong or very improbable.

but even then we could ask for opinions and explanations before making unnecessary bold statements that have no other purposes than to either vent anger or self-profiling. the first, just to say, would be not insulting to say and i did not decide which of the two applies ;) ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on December 15, 2018, 01:36:02 PM
All right  :-X
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on January 19, 2019, 10:03:33 PM
Bad news about NASA's Operation IceBridge:

Shutdown imperils NASA’s decadelong ice-measuring campaign (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/shutdown-imperils-nasa-s-decadelong-ice-measuring-campaign)

Quote
The spreading effects of the partial U.S. government shutdown have reached Earth’s melting poles. IceBridge, a decadelong NASA aerial campaign meant to secure a seamless record of ice loss, has had to sacrifice at least half of what was supposed to be its final spring deployment, its scientists say. The shortened mission threatens a crucial plan to collect overlapping data with a new ice-monitoring satellite called the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-2.

PS. This was also posted by Kassy in the ICESat-2 thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2403.msg186782.html#msg186782).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on January 24, 2019, 04:48:57 PM
The UK mainstream media is playing catch-up with this forum....

1. We have discussed this a lot - especially on the Northern Sea Route thread. Where military development goes, pollution and economic development will surely follow.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/24/military-buildup-in-arctic-as-melting-ice-reopens-northern-borders
Military buildup in Arctic as melting ice reopens northern borders
As ice melts and shipping lanes open up, geopolitical tensions are growing and old cold war bases are being reopened

Quote
The climate crisis is intensifying a new military buildup in the Arctic, diplomats and analysts said this week, as regional powers attempt to secure northern borders that were until recently reinforced by a continental-sized division of ice.

That so-called unpaid sentry is now literally melting away, opening up shipping lanes and geo-security challenges, said delegates at the Arctic Frontiers conference, the polar circle’s biggest talking shop, who debated a series of recent escalations.

Russia is reopening and strengthening cold war bases on the Kola peninsula in the far north-west of the country. Norway is beefing up its military presence in the high Arctic.

Last October, Nato staged Trident Juncture with 40,000 troops, its biggest military exercise in Norway in more than a decade. A month earlier Britain announced a new “Defence Arctic Strategy” and promised a 10-year deployment of 800 commandos to Norway and four RAF Typhoons to patrol Icelandic skies. The US is also sending hundreds more marines to the region on long-term rotations and has threatened to send naval vessels through Arctic shipping lanes for the first time.

2. Atlantification - also a major theme in this forum

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46976040
'Tipping point' risk for Arctic hotspot
A rapid climate shift under way in the Barents Sea could spread to other Arctic regions, scientists warn.

Quote
The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.

A conference in Norway heard that the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea – both further to the east - are likely to become the new Arctic frontier.

The scientists warn that it will affect ecosystems.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mabarnes on January 24, 2019, 06:07:54 PM
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Neven on January 25, 2019, 12:23:20 PM
It's been discussed several times in the melting/freezing season threads, but I've forgotten what the potential explanations are.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on January 25, 2019, 05:33:36 PM
I remember this hot spot being there for at least two years(and the second SE of Svalbard which is not so warm as well). I doubt whether this is real. I think there should be a fact check by measurements.
The two hot spots are also visible and persistent at http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on January 25, 2019, 06:01:50 PM
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Hey Mabarnes,

noob here myself. Welcome to the forum.

I don't know if it helps, but i found the following link on the topic:

Quote
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.
Link >> https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-waters-neighboring-seas-are-flowing-into-a-warming-arctic-ocean

My pet theory (and total speculation) is that due to the high amount of melting water the AMOC is changing currents slightly. Or, better to say, expands them. The persistent negative SSTA in the south of Greenland is a hint. The cold water sinks down making its way towards equator when a surface current delivers hot water via golf stream to the north (you can also see a strong positive SSTA where the Gulf Stream is). Since there is more meltwater now, the hot water could possibly go up higher latitudes than before.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: uniquorn on January 25, 2019, 07:04:20 PM
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...?  18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!

I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there.  Is this normal?  An upwelling?  Volcanic?  Super curious.
It's warm, but probably not that warm. Thread about it here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mabarnes on January 26, 2019, 01:32:55 AM
Thanks Uniquorn...!

So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?

I traced down the source for nullschool ... dang spots are on there (in yellow).  Weird!

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/rtg_high_res/color_newdisp_sst_north_pole_stereo_ophi0.png
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Rod on January 26, 2019, 05:22:19 AM


So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least.  What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot).  What gives?


The Argo floats provide real data (assuming they are working).  Nullschool presents modeled data.  Models are certainly helpful, but always beware they might be wrong. 

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on February 10, 2019, 01:52:39 AM
Polar bears invade Novaya Zemlya according to the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47185112). The town is on the west coast of the island, but is this year in some way different from previous years when it comes to ice coverage? Is the late freezing of southern Kara perhaps to blame?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on February 13, 2019, 09:11:33 PM
Fossil Fuels, Not Wildfires, Biggest Source of Arctic Black Carbon, Study Finds

Five years of testing at sites across the Arctic tracked seasonal fluctuations and sources of a climate pollutant that contributes to global warming and ice melt.

...

Some people think it's biofuels and wildfires, but our main takeaway is that fossil fuels are the main source of black carbon in the Arctic," said Patrik Winiger of Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, the lead author of a study published today in the journal Science Advances.

His team found that about 70 percent of the black carbon in the Arctic currently comes from fossil fuel burning in Northern countries. They tracked changes in black carbon levels in the atmosphere through the seasons over five years and used chemical analyses to determine the pollution's origins.

During winters, they found that emissions from fossil fuel burning made up the majority of black carbon accumulations.

During the summer, when overall black carbon concentrations are lower, emissions from wildfires and agricultural burning were bigger sources.

for details see:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-studyhttps://insideclimatenews.org/news/13022019/arctic-warming-greenland-black-carbon-source-fossil-fuels-wildfires-study
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Ravenken on February 20, 2019, 06:57:56 AM
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):

Yeah, I've seen that too but I have a different theory then other presented. Check out the continental shelf in relation to this 'thermal' exchange. Also, notice that there is a current of hot water running north along the european coastline for some time even when we get that cool area south of Greenland. Heat is still making its way north and I think that it HAS heated the methane clathrates in the continental shelf area. If you go over to NOAA MetOp-1 and look near the surface (around 930mb) you will see the methane signature.
Methane hydrates are a temp/pressure. When you have heavy release you will change the density of the water above you (i.e. pressure).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on March 07, 2019, 06:05:15 PM
Report to Congress on Changes in the Arctic
https://news.usni.org/2019/03/06/report-congress-changes-arctic-5

March 4, 2019 Congressional Research Service report

... Record low extents of Arctic sea ice over the past decade have focused scientific and policy attention on links to global climate change and projected ice-free seasons in the Arctic within decades. These changes have potential consequences for weather in the United States, access to mineral and biological resources in the Arctic, the economies and cultures of peoples in the region, and national security.

... Changes to the Arctic brought about by warming temperatures will likely allow more exploration for oil, gas, and minerals. Warming that causes permafrost to melt could pose challenges to onshore exploration activities. Increased oil and gas exploration and tourism (cruise ships) in the Arctic increase the risk of pollution in the region. Cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters will be more difficult than in other areas, primarily because effective strategies for cleaning up oil spills in ice-covered waters have yet to be developed.

Changes in the Arctic could affect threatened and endangered species, and could result in migration of fish stocks to new waters.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Ktb on March 15, 2019, 08:49:06 PM
Quote
Unless humanity makes very rapid and deep pollution cuts, Arctic winter temperatures will rise 5.4° to 9.0°F (3° to 5°C) by 2050 — and will reach an astounding 9° to 16°F (5° to 8.8°C) by 2080 — according to a report by the U.N. Environment Program released Wednesday.

https://thinkprogress.org/devastating-arctic-warming-locked-in-warns-un-48e55348514b/

Cool, cool, cool.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on March 16, 2019, 08:27:00 PM
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YYJIwGACKY8. The channel's name is "Just have a Think". The author will put more videos like this online over the next weeks. They are based on the latest Arctic Report Card subjects.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on March 17, 2019, 04:17:14 AM
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube

Excellent video Stephan!

Makes me wonder if, apart from the "like" button, we could have a "keep" button, in which we can mark the posts that we really like and we want to have a way to keep them mark for future reference.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on March 27, 2019, 02:51:04 AM
Maybe this UN document is already in another topic. It is new for me!  ;)
Quote
Temperature rise is ‘locked-in’ for the coming decades in the Arctic

Nairobi, 13 March 2019 – Even if the world were to cut emissions in line with the existing Paris Agreement commitments, winter temperatures over the Arctic Ocean would rise 3-5°C by mid-century, finds a new report by UN Environment.
Meanwhile, rapidly thawing permafrost could even accelerate climate change further and derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C, warns Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic.
https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/temperature-rise-locked-coming-decades-arctic (https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/temperature-rise-locked-coming-decades-arctic)

Quote
Based on satellite monitoring from 1979 to the present, Arctic sea ice area has declined by around 40 per cent (Parkinson and DiGirolamo, 2016). There is a clear link between CO2 emissions and the extent of summer sea ice. Climate models predict that at the current rate of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by as early as the 2030s (AMAP, 2017a), although there is considerable uncertainty between model estimates (Jahn et al., 2016).                                                                                   [page 14]

Document: "Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic"
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27687/Arctic_Graphics.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27687/Arctic_Graphics.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tealight on March 28, 2019, 02:17:41 PM
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on March 28, 2019, 03:36:38 PM
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

This site is just awesome! Very well done Tealight.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mabarnes on March 28, 2019, 06:56:47 PM
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

GREAT tool there, Tealight. 

I noticed something, maybe interesting, I dunno ... but I'm an economist, lurking here as a concerned citizen.  I'm used to doing stochastic analysis, versed in Chaos, etc - it's remarkable how much the same tools apply to dynamic systems in "Econ" and those in the natural world.

Anyway, one thing I always like to do is LOOK at data graphically.  Your tool reveals a (maybe?) interesting phenomenon and I'd like to ask - am I seeing things?  Or does this mean something?

What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tealight on March 29, 2019, 01:10:00 AM
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

This site is just awesome! Very well done Tealight.

Thanks, there is still some more content in the works. Currently I'm working on a new version of my Albedo-Warming Potential model. My computation speed has improved significantly due to hardware and coding improvements.

The very first AWP version in 2016 would have needed over 1.5h for the entire 40 year dataset. With some coding improvement it came down to 30min last year and now with mutiprocessing (using all CPU cores) I'm down to 3min 52s!

edit: actually in 2016 with my old CPU it would have been more like 3h. 1.5h is on my new CPU without coding improvements.


What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.

Hmm, I don't a consistent pattern over the entire dataset but some years clearly show a rotation of the anomaly areas like 1987-1991 or 2007-2009.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: mabarnes on March 29, 2019, 01:49:23 AM
What I'm seeing:  If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace.  I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.

Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...?  I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed.  Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation). 

Curious!  Thanks.

Hmm, I don't a consistent pattern over the entire dataset but some years clearly show a rotation of the anomaly areas like 1987-1991 or 2007-2009.
[/quote]

Well first thanks for looking at it.  I was mostly wondering if there was some known phenomenon hence I asked.  I have no idea what's under the hood of the models you guys use, but I appreciate your taking the time to look at it.  You never know, as the guys at Santa Fe used to say.   :D
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on March 29, 2019, 10:49:09 AM
Thank you Tealight, I have long looked at ice-free days as a measure of advancing loss of sea ice, but this visualization tool really takes it to the next level. Amazing.
One small thing - could you add 2018 to the slider?
Another comment/request - I believe the anomaly would be better when compared to the more stable baseline of the 1979-2000 average, rather than to the all-year average that already includes a part of the signal (loss of ice-covered days).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 04:50:00 PM
GRACE Follow-On - encouraging news from GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany

Also says NASA is dumping Ftp protocol for data and info access. Ftp files are dead easy to load and plonk into excel files. I wonder if yet again the interested amateur will be blocked from easy access to the data.


https://media.gfz-potsdam.de/gfz/sec12/pdf/GRACE_FO_SDS_newsletter_No2.pdf
Quote
GRAVITY RECOVERY AND CLIMATE EXPERIMENT Follow-On
1
GRACE Follow-On
Science Data System Newsletter
Report: Jan-Mar 2019 (No. 2)
Frank Webb, , Frank Flechtner, Felix Landerer, Michael Watkins, Christoph Dahle
1 Jet propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
2 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
3 Center for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX

GRACE Follow-On Science Team & Highlights:
On Jan 28, 2019, the mission exited Phase-D (in-orbit-checkout) and entered Phase-E and the
beginning of science operations.

During the first 120 days of Phase-E, the project’s Science Data System (JPL, CSR, GFZ) team will conduct the validation and verification of the flight system operations and data processing approach to obtaining monthly gravity fields at a precision equivalent to that achieved with GRACE. Preliminary results from Phase-D and early Phase-E show that the system performance meets the Level 1 science and technology requirements of continuity with the 15-year record from GRACE.

Since launch (May-22, 2018), GRACE-FO has collected approximately 7 months of the science
data which will be part of the first Level-1A/B data scheduled for release on or before May 28,
2019.


The Level-2 gravity products and the observations from the LRI (Laser Ranging
Interferometer) technology demonstration will be released as planned on or before July-27,
2019. The Science Data System will release the data through the US PO.DAAC
(http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov) and the German ISDC (https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo-isdc)
data portals (see important updates for PO.DAAC data access below). Detailed documentation
of the Level-1 data processing and the adopted calibration strategies will be released
concurrently with the data.

Important Information for JPL PO.DAAC Users:
NASA is in the process of deprecating the use of the FTP protocol for data and information
access. PO.DAAC is pleased to offer PO.DAAC Drive as a robust FTP alternative for browsing and
retrieving data at PO.DAAC (https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/). It offers file navigation
and download through an interface served directly through your browser, and with a familiar
look and feel. It also allows users to access data via a command line so that interactions can be
easily scripted. The entire PO.DAAC archive can also be mounted to a local computer as a
virtual data store.
[/size]
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on April 02, 2019, 08:47:32 PM
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays

Please please, please, Tealight,

Are you going to set in motion the AWP graphs for 2019 data on https://sites.google.com/site/cryospherecomputing/awp/arctic-graphs

I love the maps but my old-fashioned and aged brain still works better with graphs.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Steven on April 04, 2019, 08:58:31 PM
The Operation IceBridge campaign for spring 2019 has started yesterday:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/nasa-begins-final-year-of-airborne-polar-ice-mission

Quote
During this 6-week campaign, IceBridge expects to complete about 24 flights in total, 11 of which are of the highest priority and are repeated every year to gauge annual changes in elevation of land and sea ice. This year, following the launch of ICESat-2, IceBridge will not only attempt a few new targets but many of the longest-running surveys have also been tweaked to underfly the satellite directly wherever possible.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on April 07, 2019, 05:22:20 PM
Another interesting video from the Just Have A Think (JHAT) series:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qo3cznpfIpA
Main topic is the Blue Ocean Event and its main consequences.
Worth listening to.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 08, 2019, 01:06:32 AM
A screen print from that presentation:
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on April 08, 2019, 07:07:35 PM
Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017 (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b/meta)
Jason E Box, et al. in Environmental Research Letters (2019)

Phys.org (https://phys.org/news/2019-04-air-temperatures-arctic.html) review includes
Quote
"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic," according to lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.

Who'd 'a thought!


Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on April 21, 2019, 01:48:28 AM
Jason Box video explaining the new paper — titled  Key Indicators of Arctic Climate Change: 1971–2017 (https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aafc1b/meta)

https://youtu.be/asKIeN0pYTk

World Economic Forum: The Arctic Has Entered an ‘Unprecedented State,’ Researchers Warn 
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/the-arctic-has-entered-an-unprecedented-state-researchers-warn/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on April 29, 2019, 08:52:57 AM
Behold America's New And Desperately Needed Heavy Icebreaker
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/27647/behold-americas-new-and-desperately-needed-heavy-icebreaker

After years of back and forth, the U.S. government has finally issued a contract for the U.S. Coast Guard's first new heavy icebreaker in decades.

-------------------

One down, 65 to go ...

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg190395.html#msg190395

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=854.0;attach=116167;image)
h/t to gerantocrat
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on May 03, 2019, 05:08:58 AM
Russian Arctic Researchers Evacuate Station as Polar Ice Cracks   
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2019/05/arctic-campers-evacuate-polar-ice-cracks

Researchers from the Russian Hydrometeorological Institute, Roshydromet, had to flee from their Arctic station on Monday when the ice floe they were working on started to vanish from under their feet.

The scientists, who are studying pollution in Russia’s Arctic region, had been on the ice for more than a month when the emergency struck and they had to pack up their equipment and evacuate. The whole process took less than three hours, the camp organizers say.

(https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/akademiktryoshnikov-ice.aari_.jpg?itok=Z5rop72J)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on May 04, 2019, 10:34:16 AM
Pour one out for old Arctic sea ice, because it’s basically a goner.

The severe toll of climate change at the top of the world is becoming clearer with each passing day. The latest sign comes courtesy of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which released its monthly sea ice update on Thursday. It shows that just 1.2 percent of ice in the Arctic Ocean is older than four years. Just 35 years ago, ice that was four years old or older made up nearly a third of all Arctic sea ice.

...

he loss of old sea ice is intimately tied to the disappearance of Arctic ice cover more broadly. As it melts out, it’s been replaced by younger, thinner ice that breaks up more easily when storms come through and melts more readily in the warming waters.

If this is the four-plus year old ice finally disappears, it will mark the first time on record the Arctic has been without it. There’s a chance it could come back as the winter refreeze happens depending on what happens to ice in the 3-4 year age range over the course of the summer. If some of this ice makes it through the summer, it would age another year thus replenishing four-plus year old ice.

..

Mark Serreze, NSIDC’s director, told Earther 5-10 years is a “more reasonable” timeframe for old ice finally melt away. Research shows the Arctic could see ice-free summers as early as the mid-2030s.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-last-of-the-arctics-old-sea-ice-is-on-the-verge-of-1834510753
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: uniquorn on May 04, 2019, 01:01:42 PM
whoi's new glider
Quote
To understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.
https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2019, 01:13:41 AM
Navy Plans to be More Active in the Arctic
https://www.ktoo.org/2019/05/04/navy-plans-to-be-more-active-in-the-arctic/
https://www.defensenews.com/news/your-military/2019/05/06/northcom-arctic-now-americas-first-line-of-defense/

The U.S. Navy is increasing its presence in the Arctic, and Navy Secretary Richard Spencer said he’d like to send a ship through the Northwest Passage this summer.

“We’re still exploring to see if we could do a full passage. There’s still ice up there in some places,” Spencer told a U.S. Senate Appropriations subcommittee this week.


... Spencer said his wake-up call came at his first Arctic Council meeting, shortly after he became secretary of the Navy in 2017.

“It truly was an eye-opener for me,” Spencer said, “because sitting across the table was our Russian counterpart, talking about the 10,000 spetsnaz (special operations troops) he has up there, and the runways that he’s bringing back to life for ‘search and rescue.’”

The secretary made air quotes with his fingers, suggesting he doesn’t believe the build up is just for civilian purposes.

Russian forces are preparing to monitor airspace and secure the Northern Sea Route, which has the potential to turn the Arctic into a geostrategic thoroughfare on par with the Strait of Malacca — a major shipping channel connecting the Indian and Pacific oceans — and the Suez Canal, according to the U.S. Coast Guard.

...

The U.S. Navy added Arctic exercises in 2018 and 2019 and is planning more. Spencer said the Navy and Marines are considering using Adak for an exercise in September.

“While we do not have a requirement for a port, yes, having a deepwater port such as Nome would be an advantage in the area.”

-----------------------------------

Admiral: The US Is ‘Operating Blind’ In the Arctic
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/05/admiral-us-operating-blind-arctic/156781/

U.S. defense officials announced at the Sea Air Space forum here on Monday that September Arctic sea ice is receding at a rate of roughly 13 percent per decade.  ... When it comes to predicting fluctuations in Arctic weather, the United States is “operating in the blind,” the U.S. Navy’s chief meteorologist said Monday.

The northern polar region is heating up about twice as fast as the rest of the globe, creating wildly variable weather and conditions that don’t happen anywhere else. As climate change makes the Arctic more accessible, the Navy’s ships, subs, and aircraft need better weather models to help them operate in the region’s chaotic seas, Rear Adm. John Oko told an audience at the Navy League’s Sea-Air-Space conference on Monday.

Okon said relatively small atmospheric events in the Arctic, sometimes called polar lows, can be as dangerous as hurricanes at lower latitudes. They “develop quick and move really fast,” he said.

Over the next three years, the Navy Research Lab, NOAA, and other partners will work to develop better predictions through the Earth System Prediction Capability (https://earthsystemprediction.gov/Home.aspx), which Oko described as “a national effort to develop and deliver a fully-coupled air, ocean, ice and land models.”

... “In the Arctic, traditional sensors that provide the bulk of observations in the mid and low [latitude locations] just don’t work,” he said. “Things like geostationary satellites that provide the environmental observations, gliders, argo floats; they don’t provide the access or persistency required of the Arctic Ocean,” he said.

As a result, the Navy doesn’t have the hard data to make predictive models run as well as they are supposed to. “The current amount of observations that we have in the Arctic are similar to the amount of observations we had over the U.S. and in the Atlantic during WWI,” he said.


“One of the limiting factors for unmanned vehicles right now is battery technology. Right?” He says he’s looking for “low-cost persistent sensors that can operate…in the upper two or three hundred meters where the runoff from the Ice and the snowpack from the land are affecting that acoustic signature.”

...

Native Alaskans have an acute understanding of ice-flow, melting conditions and shifting weather patterns, Okon said.

“We need them. I need to tap into that local knowledge," said Navy Rear Adm. John Okon, commander of Naval Meteorology and Oceanography Command.

“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

Tapping into that knowledge will be critical because the region remains an operational enigma for much of the military, he added.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wdmn on May 07, 2019, 02:30:18 AM
Lurk, is there a specific survey/poll you're thinking of?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Human Habitat Index on May 07, 2019, 08:21:02 AM
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

They don't have a word for "nature"
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 07, 2019, 09:48:08 AM
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

They don't have a word for "nature"

Indigeneous knowledge is pretty rapidly becoming obsolete with these.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: El Cid on May 07, 2019, 11:42:44 AM
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”

IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.

Ancient cultures destroyed their surroundings just like us, eg. Greeks/Romans destroyed the soil of their homeland, Sumerians detto, even neolithic farmers wreaked havoc on Nature. I strongly suggest reading Mongomery's: Dirt, the erosion of civilizations
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2019, 11:45:52 AM
They may not have known better. We do!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on May 07, 2019, 11:55:10 AM
US Climate Change Refusal Sinks Arctic Declaration
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-arctic-declaration.html

Members of the Arctic Council meeting in Finland's far north on Tuesday failed to issue their traditional final declaration due to a US refusal to mention climate change, delegates said

... Notably, in a speech in Rovaniemi on the eve of the council meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention "climate change" once, even though, according to scientists, global warming is progressing twice as fast in the Arctic as in the rest of the world.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on May 07, 2019, 12:10:27 PM
US Climate Change Refusal Sinks Arctic Declaration
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-arctic-declaration.html

Members of the Arctic Council meeting in Finland's far north on Tuesday failed to issue their traditional final declaration due to a US refusal to mention climate change, delegates said

... Notably, in a speech in Rovaniemi on the eve of the council meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention "climate change" once, even though, according to scientists, global warming is progressing twice as fast in the Arctic as in the rest of the world.

The good thing about it is that the usual fudge, i.e. finding a form of words that satisfy no-one, did not happen. It's about time the Trump Administration received "Nyet" from some Governments. Unfortunately, the current UK Government is more likely to say "Yes Sir, anything you say, Sir". However, the streets of London will be full of those who do not agree come June.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: seancoulter on May 08, 2019, 08:17:35 PM
whoi's new glider
Quote
To understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.
https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/
Thanks for the article. It's really interesting, and the video there supports that article. I started to read a lot of literature about the Arctic and its current condition in recent time, so I'm trying to collect valuable materials.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on May 09, 2019, 09:49:50 AM
Hello and welcome to the forum Sean.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on May 11, 2019, 05:44:09 PM

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-04-08-russian-glacier-moving-much-faster

This is something that has always worried me, that some glaciers might just collapse when they reach a tipping point.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on May 14, 2019, 05:22:03 PM
Underwater Arctic Forests Are Expanding With Rapid Warming
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-underwater-arctic-forests-rapid.html

(https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0921818118301826-gr2.jpg)

Today, climate change is altering marine habitats such as kelp forests on a global scale. In western Australia, eastern Canada, southern Europe, northern California and eastern United States, kelps are disappearing due to warming temperatures. In other areas, kelps are being heavily over-grazed by sea urchins. Coastal conditions in the Arctic are changing dramatically and the region is warming faster than the rest of the world, but these changes could actually be good for kelp.

Kelp forests have been observed throughout the Arctic by Inuit, researchers and polar explorers. The Canadian Arctic alone represents 10 per cent of the world's coastlines, but we know little of the hidden kelp forests there.

(https://static.wixstatic.com/media/c1c97d_41f0b7df4606443593770c47b715c9db~mv2.png/v1/fill/w_630,h_261,al_c,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01/c1c97d_41f0b7df4606443593770c47b715c9db~mv2.png)
Arctic Kelp

Kelps have adapted to the severe conditions. These cool water species have special strategies to survive freezing temperatures and long periods of darkness, and even grow under sea ice. In regions with cold, nutrient-rich water, they can attain some of the highest rates of primary production of any natural ecosystem on Earth.

Arctic kelp forests provide a key example of the diverse responses to climate change. Predictive models and experiments suggest that Arctic coasts are in line to become one of the most impacted environments in the world under changing climate. Yet the possible expansion of kelp forests should provide new habitats for fish and other marine organisms, and enhance a suite of valuable ecosystem services along Arctic coastlines.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tealight on May 31, 2019, 12:33:55 AM
I made a quick and lightweight sea ice comparison page for the entire NSIDC data set. At the moment it's just for the 1st of the month, but soon I add the 15th of the month as well.

https://cryospherecomputing.tk/PastSIC
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 31, 2019, 02:21:52 AM
RE Tealight #348
Nice work!  That would be great addition to NSIDC website.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on May 31, 2019, 07:43:31 PM
Great work tealight. Thanks a million!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tealight on June 02, 2019, 01:11:20 AM
RE Tealight #348
Nice work!  That would be great addition to NSIDC website.

The NSIDC has the sea ice comparison tool, but it takes forever to load. Another issue with it is showing only extent and not sea ice concentration.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on June 04, 2019, 06:22:01 PM
Loss of Arctic Sea Ice Stokes Summer Heat Waves in Southern U.S.   
https://m.phys.org/news/2019-06-loss-arctic-sea-ice-stokes.html

(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/2019/lossofarctic.jpg)
Composites of summer extreme (left panels) and oppressive heat wave (right panels) frequency during summers of low (top), neutral (middle) and high (bottom) Hudson Bay sea ice extent. Credit: AGU   

A new study in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres explores how seasonal fluctuations of sea ice coverage trigger changes in atmospheric circulation patterns during the boreal summer.

The study draws upon four decades of satellite data of Arctic sea ice coverage collected between 1979 and 2016, overlapped with heat wave frequency data across the United States during the same time period.

The team found evidence for a strong statistical relationship between the extent of summer sea ice in the Hudson Bay and heat waves across the southern Plains and southeastern U.S 

Quote
... "The latest research on this topic suggests that declining Arctic sea ice may be linked to increased incidence of extreme weather patterns across the northern hemisphere," said Dagmar Budikova, a climatologist at Illinois State University in Normal and lead author of the new study. "Our results confirm this hypothesis by offering further evidence that Arctic sea ice variability has the potential to influence extreme summer temperatures and the frequency of heat waves across the southern U.S."

The new study finds the loss of sea ice across the Arctic begins with warmer-than-usual spring temperatures in the Hudson Bay and Labrador regions in the southeastern Canadian Arctic.

"This process starts when temperatures across the southeastern Canadian Arctic and northwestern Atlantic are 2 degrees [Celsius] warmer than expected in March, April and May," Budikova said.

This springtime warming lessens the north-to-south change in temperature between the high and middle latitudes of eastern North America, leading to a reduction in the strength of regional wind patterns. These conditions are symptomatic of weakened large-scale movements of air that appear to persist into the summer months, Budikova said.

Dagmar Budikova et al. United States Heat Wave Frequency and Arctic Ocean Marginal Sea Ice Variability (https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018JD029365), Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on June 08, 2019, 05:00:02 AM
Great pictures in this article from the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/07/oceans-demise-the-end-of-the-arctic-as-we-know-it). And the article itself is quite good and had (for me) some previous unknown, such as:

Quote
Depending on how the ice is formed, it can be permeable and elastic, with space inside that can be colonised by bacteria, fungal spores and the tiny creatures that feed on them such as the transparent jellyfish Sympagohydra tuuli, which squeezes inside the cracks in the ice to hunt for food.

Also interesting to see the floes in the Fram strait, particularly the amount of snow that seems to coverthem.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on June 14, 2019, 04:16:23 AM
Melting Arctic Ice Opens a New Fiber Optic Cable Route 
https://spectrum.ieee.org/tech-talk/telecom/internet/melting-sea-ice-opens-the-floodgate-for-a-new-fiber-optic-cable-route

(https://spectrum.ieee.org/image/MzMxOTYyOA.jpeg)

Helsinki-based Cinia, which owns and operates about 15,000 kilometers of fiber optic cable, and MegaFon, a Russian telecommunications operator, signed a memorandum of understanding to lay a fiber optic cable across the Arctic Ocean. The cable, if built, would not only reduce latency between users in Europe, Asia, and North America, but provide some much-needed geographical diversity to the world’s undersea cable infrastructure.

... Ari-Jussi Knaapila, the CEO of Cinia, estimates that the planned Arctic cable, which would stretch from London to Alaska, would shorten the physical cable distance between Europe and the western coast of North America by 20 to 30 percent. Additional cable will extend the route down to China and Japan, for a planned total of 10,000 kilometers of new cable.

... Stringing a cable across the Arctic Ocean is not a new idea, though other proposed projects, including the semi-built Arctic Fibre project, have never been completed. In the past, the navigational season in the Arctic was too short to easily build undersea cables. Now, melting sea ice due to climate change is expanding that window and making it more feasibl
Title: Expedition to drift through arctic ocean
Post by: opensheart on June 14, 2019, 04:11:48 PM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/science/arctic-sea-ice-expedition-to-study-climate-change/?utm_term=.175977fb66ac&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

Quote
these scientists and several hundred others will launch the largest Arctic research expedition in history: a 12-month, $134 million, 17-nation effort to document climate change in the fastest-warming part of the globe.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 14, 2019, 04:13:56 PM
That's awesome. YEY science! \o/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: be cause on June 14, 2019, 04:38:49 PM
^^^ .. I hope there will still be a floe for them to attach to come the fall . b.c.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: longwalks1 on June 14, 2019, 06:15:43 PM
No SciHub for the WaPo.  I'm blocked,  More details please on the 12 month expedition or alternate sources

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SteveMDFP on June 14, 2019, 08:06:20 PM
No SciHub for the WaPo.  I'm blocked,  More details please on the 12 month expedition or alternate sources

Voila.  Just don't report me to the copyright police, please.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on June 18, 2019, 10:05:00 PM
Things coming out of arctic permafrost (Pandora's Box)
http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190612-the-poisons-released-by-melting-arctic-ice
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on July 22, 2019, 10:00:01 PM
Northernmost Alaska.
Quote
Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) 7/21/19, 9:43 PM
The Chukchi Sea offshore of Utqiaġvik has been largely #seaice free since early June and July is sure to have 0% ice coverage. The change in July extent since the 1990s is astounding. Sunday PM photo courtesy @IARC_Alaska. #akwx #Arctic
https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1153118308083703808
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on July 26, 2019, 05:15:21 PM
Melting Ice May Change Shape of Arctic River Deltas
https://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2019/07/25/melting-ice-may-change-shape-of-arctic-river-deltas/

Thawing ice cover and easily erodible permafrost may destabilize Arctic river deltas, according to new research.

A new study in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters finds sea ice and permafrost both act to stabilize channels on Arctic river deltas.

"Your channels tend to stay in one place when you have really thick ice or when you have permafrost that's really hard to erode," said Rebecca Lauzon, environmental educator at the Rochester Museum and Science Center's Cumming Nature Center in New York and the lead author of the new study.

Ice cover on Arctic deltas is expected to thin while permafrost is expected to thaw along the banks of Arctic rivers due to climate change.

The new study finds these changes could destabilize deltas in the far north of the globe, making them less resilient to rising sea levels. Less stable deltas could also impact Arctic ecosystems, creating winners and losers among delta species and even affecting the global carbon cycle.

... Previous research on Arctic river deltas found that permafrost along the banks of rivers affected riverbank erosion rate, and thick ice covers resulted in constricted and faster river flow.

The study's authors found that when ice cover is thicker on rivers, or with more stable permafrost along the banks, river deltas tended to be characterized by deeper, more stable channels which acted as funnels, carrying sediment out to the ocean.

But thinner ice or more easily erodible permafrost along the banks caused the deltas to destabilize, with shallower water channels cutting through shifting sediment banks.

Part of the reason these channels become less stable is due to a loss of overbank flooding, which decreases with thinner ice and more erodible permafrost. Overbank flooding, which happens with thick ice cover and more resistant permafrost, causes sediment to be deposited along the tops of channel banks. Over time this results in higher riverbanks, which increases the stability of deltas.


Rebecca Lauzon et al. Ice and permafrost effects on delta morphology and channel dynamics (https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1525858-ice-permafrost-effects-delta-morphology-channel-dynamics), Geophysical Research Letters (2019)

Trump DOE actively blocking publicly funded research

https://www.osti.gov/pages/biblio/1525858-ice-permafrost-effects-delta-morphology-channel-dynamics

This content will become publicly available on June 6, 2020
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 04, 2019, 11:14:16 PM
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/04/russia-floating-nuclear-power-station-chernobyl-on-ice
Fears of 'Chernobyl on ice' as Russia prepares floating nuclear plant
Scepticism and safety concerns persist before vessel begins 4,000-mile Arctic journey

Quote
“I feel like I’m one of the first cosmonauts going into space,” said Vladimir Irminku, one of the chief engineers of the Akademik Lomonosov, as he stood on the deck of the giant, box-like platform on a chilly summer morning at Kola Bay in the Barents Sea.

Russia is planning to dispatch the vessel, its first floating nuclear power station, on a 4,000-mile journey along the Northern Sea Route, in a milestone for the country’s growing use of nuclear power in its plans for Arctic expansion.

If all goes to plan, the Akademik Lomonosov will be towed to the Arctic port of Pevek this month, where it will use its twin nuclear reactors to provide heat and energy to homes and support mining and drilling operations in Russia’s mineral-rich Chukotka region.

Russia claims the project will provide clean energy to the remote region and allow authorities to retire an ageing nuclear plant and a coal-burning power station.

But the Akademik Lomonosov has raised safety concerns among environmental groups, including accusations from Greenpeace that it could be a “floating Chernobyl”, and doubts about whether floating nuclear power stations meant to provide power to remote regions are economically viable.

The Northern Sea Route – shipping lanes opened by melting ice sheets in the Arctic – presents new trade routes between China and Europe that Russia hopes to make navigable year-round.

The prospect of lucrative trade routes, as well as the region’s military importance, has led to a proliferation of nuclear-powered icebreakers, submarines and other high-tech nuclear technologies in the Arctic region.

Thomas Nilsen, the editor of the Barents Observer newspaper, based in the Norwegian town of Kirkenes, has estimated that by 2035, the Russian Arctic “will by far be the most nuclearised waters on the planet”.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 08, 2019, 09:58:15 PM
Over a Century of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reconstructed With Help From Historic Ships' Logs
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-century-arctic-sea-ice-volume.html

(https://3c1703fe8d.site.internapcdn.net/newman/gfx/news/2019/overacentury.jpg)

Our knowledge of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean comes mostly through satellites, which since 1979 have imaged the dwindling extent of sea ice from above. The University of Washington's Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean and Modeling System, or PIOMAS, is a leading tool for gauging the thickness of that ice. Until now that system has gone back only as far as 1979.

A new paper now extends the estimate of Arctic sea ice volume back more than a century, to 1901. To do so it used both modern-day computer simulations and historic observations, some written by hand in the early 1900s aboard precursors to today's U.S. Coast Guard ships

"This extends the record of sea ice thickness variability from 40 years to 110 years, which allows us to put more recent variability and ice loss in perspective," said Axel Schweiger, a sea ice scientist at the UW's Applied Physics Laboratory and first author of the study published in the August issue of the Journal of Climate.

"The volume of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean today and the current rate of loss are unprecedented in the 110-year record," he added.

Open Access: Axel J. Schweiger et al, Arctic Sea Ice Volume Variability over 1901–2010: A Model-Based Reconstruction (https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0008.1), Journal of Climate[/I ] (2019).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 10, 2019, 01:24:00 AM
Ten Years of Icy Data Show the Flow of Heat from the Arctic Seafloor
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-08/ugs-tyo080819.php

... The analysis also shows that high heat flow variability on Alpha Ridge, which was formed when a mantle hotspot triggered the creation of the High Arctic Large Igneous Province, is consistent with thin sediment cover over fractured basement rock permeated by circulating fluids.

(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d4/Arctic_Ocean_bathymetric_features.png/725px-Arctic_Ocean_bathymetric_features.png)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019JB017587
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 10, 2019, 09:15:14 PM
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.

If not power - at least fallout ...

See https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,776.msg220708.html#msg220708

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 11, 2019, 04:41:09 PM
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.


The Barents Observer has recently published an overview (pdf) listing the increasing number of reactors in the Russian Arctic. The paper is part of Barents Observer’s analytical popular science studies on developments in the Euro-Arctic Region.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/atom-rapport_barents_observer_1.pdf

According to the list there are 39 nuclear-powered vessels or installations in the Russian Arctic today with a total of 62 reactors. This includes 31 submarines, one surface warship, five icebreakers, two onshore and one floating nuclear power plants.

(https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/resize/nuclear_reactor_map-1000x634.png)


Looking 15 years ahead, the number of ships, including submarines, and installations powered by reactors is estimated to increase to 74 with a total of 94 reactors, maybe as many as 114.
Additional to new icebreakers and submarines already under construction, Russia is brushing dust of older Soviet ideas of utilizing nuclear-power for different kind of Arctic shelf industrial developments, like oil- and gas exploration, mining and research.  “By 2035, the Russian Arctic will be the most nuclearized waters on the planet,” the paper reads.

Also, existing icebreakers and submarines get life-time prolongation. The average age of the Northern Fleet’s nuclear-powered submarines has never been older than today. Several of the submarines built in the 1980s will continue to sail the Barents Sea and under the Arctic ice-cap until the late 2020s.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2019/08/severodvinsk-authorities-confirm-mysterious-brief-radiation-spike-after-missile
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: DrTskoul on August 11, 2019, 05:13:24 PM
Ah, it feels me with warm and fuzzy feelings... must be the gamma radiation...

 :o :o :o
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on August 11, 2019, 07:46:12 PM
"nuclearized waters"
:) hihihi
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: HapHazard on August 11, 2019, 08:40:10 PM
"nuclearized waters"

So that means: radiation > water glows in the dark > no more dark winter in the arctic > perennial BOE imminent!

 8)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ghoti on August 11, 2019, 11:01:34 PM
Lightning storms north of 85N are a new phenomenon aren't they?

https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/1160571125673238530

Convective storms that far north can't be good for ice.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Archimid on August 12, 2019, 04:44:29 AM

So that means: radiation > water glows in the dark > no more dark winter in the arctic > perennial BOE GOE imminent!

 8)

Wait a minute. It is common knowledge that radiation glows green. Fixed it for you.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 12, 2019, 06:48:40 PM
I don't know if I'd agree with their conclusion ...

Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Has 'Minimal Influence' On Severe Cold Winter Weather, Research Shows
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-arctic-sea-ice-loss-minimal-severe.html

The dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice through climate change has only a "minimal influence" on severe cold winter weather across Asia and North America, new research has shown.

(https://media.springernature.com/full/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-019-0560-3/MediaObjects/41558_2019_560_Fig1_HTML.png)

... a new study by experts from the University of Exeter, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and the Energy and Sustainability Research Institute in Groningen, has shed new light on the link between sea-ice loss and cold winters.

For the research, the international team combined observations over the past 40 years with results from sophisticated climate modelling experiments. They found that the observations and models agreed that reduced regional sea ice and cold winters often coincide which each other.

They found that the correlation between reduced sea ice and extreme winters across the mid-latitude occurs because both are simultaneously driven by the same, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Crucially, it shows that reduced sea ice only has a minimal influence on whether a harsh and severe winter will occur.


The study is published in leading science journal, Nature Climate Change.

(https://media.springernature.com/m685/springer-static/image/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41558-019-0551-4/MediaObjects/41558_2019_551_Fig1_HTML.png)

... Recent studies have suggested that the reduced sea ice or Arctic warming has contributed to recent cold winters experienced in the mid-latitude region—and that as the sea-ice reduces further through climate change, cold winters will become more frequent and severe.

Now, this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation.

Minimal influence of reduced Arctic sea ice on coincident cold winters in mid-latitudes (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0551-4), Nature Climate Change (2019)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: TeaPotty on August 12, 2019, 07:53:10 PM
I think we can assume Climate Change is causing the atmospheric circulation changes that are outside of historical norms, unless proven otherwise, which they claim is indeed causing more severe winters.

I don't understand how they just flatly claim that the atmospheric circulation changes are "random", and therefore the severe winters are not caused by Climate Change. It doesn't look like they proved this at all.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: petm on August 12, 2019, 08:32:00 PM
From the abstract (I don't have access to the full article), it doesn't seem they are claiming that climate change is not causing more severe winters. What they are claiming is that sea ice loss does not cause more severe winters, but rather results from the same underlying cause, namely changes in atmospheric circulation patterns.

Quote
Abstract

Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters.


This part of the news story (not from the scientific article):
Quote
this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation

... is probably wrong. Most likely a journalist writing above his pay grade.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sterks on August 12, 2019, 08:59:50 PM
<snip, again, it will sometimes take up to 24-36 hours for me to moderate stuff. Try to keep your patience and don't lash out, so as to prevent vicious cycles/spirals; N.>
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 12, 2019, 09:25:14 PM
 Correlation is not equal to Causation
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Archimid on August 12, 2019, 11:44:38 PM
No access to the paper.

How do they define "cold weather"? Do they test for temperatures or snow?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: El Cid on August 13, 2019, 10:27:14 PM
I had shown this one before. The past 10 winters vs climatic average.

NH midlatitude winters are getting warmer as the Arctic gets warmer. Period.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: wdmn on August 13, 2019, 11:46:08 PM
But if you take the last 6 winters/early spring you see a clear, and strong cooling anomaly centred on the Great Lakes.

This also shows up in lake ice coverage.

And then there was the paper from earlier in the year:

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-arctic-weather-extremes-latitudes.html

Atmospheric researchers at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) have developed a climate model that can accurately depict the frequently observed winding course of the jet stream, a major air current over the Northern Hemisphere. The breakthrough came when the scientists combined their global climate model with a new machine learning algorithm on ozone chemistry. Using the combined model, they demonstrate that the jet stream's wavelike course in winter and subsequent extreme weather conditions like cold air outbreaks in Central Europe and North America are the direct result of climate change.

....

In addition, with the new model the researchers can also more closely analyze the causes of the meandering jet stream. "Our study shows that the changes in the jet stream are at least partly due to the loss of Arctic sea ice. If the ice cover continues to dwindle, we believe that both the frequency and intensity of the extreme weather events previously observed in the middle latitudes will increase," says Prof Markus Rex, Head of Atmospheric Research at the AWI. "In addition, our findings confirm that the more frequently occurring cold phases in winter in the U.S., Europe and Asia are by no means a contradiction to global warming; rather, they are a part of anthropogenic climate change."



These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: petm on August 14, 2019, 12:30:46 AM
These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.

They certainly do. The joys of science! I think you'd need a few long talks with experts to get a sense of the nuances. Personally I'm skeptical that there's no feedback from low ice to subsequent jet stream weakening and it would take a lot more than one paper convince me (especially if I can't even read that paper!). But then again, I know almost nothing about it.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 14, 2019, 12:56:37 AM
Arctic Ocean Could Have No September Sea Ice If Global Average Temperatures Increase by 2 degrees
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-arctic-ocean-september-sea-ice.html

Arctic sea ice could disappear completely through September each summer if average global temperatures increase by as little as 2 degrees, according to a new study by the University of Cincinnati.

The study by an international team of researchers was published in Nature Communications.

The study predicted that the Arctic Ocean could be completely ice-free in September with as little as 2 degrees Celsius of temperature change. Limiting warming to 2 degrees is the stated goal of the 2009 Paris Agreement, the international effort to curb carbon emissions to address warming. The Trump Administration withdrew the United States as a participant in 2017.

"Most likely, September Arctic sea ice will effectively disappear between approximately 2 and 2.5 degrees of global warming," the study said. "Yet limiting the warming to 2 degrees (as proposed under the Paris agreement) may not be sufficient to prevent an ice-free Arctic Ocean."

https://youtu.be/MmlYIbcfSaY

The researchers applied the new statistical method to climate model projections of the 21st century. Using the climate models, the authors found at least a 6% probability that summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean will disappear with warming of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels. At 2 degrees, the likelihood increases to 28%.

Open Access: R. Olson et al, A novel method to test non-exclusive hypotheses applied to Arctic ice projections from dependent models (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-10561-x), Nature Communications (2019)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 14, 2019, 07:26:41 AM
Just if somebody had missed this: The "cold blob" south of Greenland that is so prominent in El Cid's post above (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,596.msg221836.html#msg221836) has just pulled a disappearing act!

Since sometime in June/July it's been rapidly disappearing, and the latest SST anomaly maps show very warm waters there instead,.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on August 14, 2019, 07:44:30 AM
binntho, I see a large cold blob in the north atlantic between France and Canada. Maybe it moved south? Too simple explanation?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 14, 2019, 07:45:47 AM
binntho, I see a large cold blob in the north atlantic between France and Canada. Maybe it moved south? Too simple explanation?
Yes, one might be tempted to think so, but parts of the oceans are cold and parts are warm, and they keep shifting around. The "cold blob" was so interesting because it just stayed there for years on end.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 14, 2019, 07:56:25 AM
I made an animation from the SST anomaly images from June, July and August. Click to run.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on August 14, 2019, 08:54:43 AM
Warmed meltwater runoff from Greenland? A change in currents? How deep is this warmer layer, maybe just a thin warm fresher water surface layer and no mixing?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 14, 2019, 09:22:54 AM
Well, there were some theories re. the cold blob, including that it was just a very thin layer of slightly colder water due to increased NW winds in recent years.

Since the NE branch of the AMOC (i.e. the one on the other side of the cold blob) didn't really show any slow-down, the guess was that it was just a thin surface layer.

But I must admit that this is just speculation and hearsay, other people know a lot more about this than I do!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 18, 2019, 01:56:28 AM
Russia Bans Norway's Hurtigruten Cruise Ships From Entering Its Arctic Waters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/08/17/russia-bans-norways-hurtigruten-cruise-ships-from-entering-arctic-waters/amp/

A Norwegian cruise company has been refused entry to Russian waters above the Arctic circle just two weeks before sailing. The Hurtigruten expedition ship MS Spitsbergen had been due to sail from Tromsø in northern Norway to Murmansk via Franz Josef Land, a remote Russian archipelago inhabited only by Russian military.

Bjørnflaten said they had been informed that the Russian military have planned exercises in the region at the same time.

The Barents Observer reported that 30 Russian naval vessels, including surface ships, submarines and supply ships took part in the exercise last week. Norway’s chief of defence said that Russia wants to show that it can prevent NATO from operating in the North Atlantic.

The area is now viewed with much more military strategic importance,” senior researcher Julie Wilhelmsen said to NRK.

She added that the Hurtigruten ships will be viewed by Russia not just as civilian ships, but as vessel that could be utilized for military purposes such as intelligence gathering.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on August 18, 2019, 04:37:00 AM
Russia Bans Norway's Hurtigruten Cruise Ships From Entering Its Arctic Waters
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/08/17/russia-bans-norways-hurtigruten-cruise-ships-from-entering-arctic-waters/amp/
I would not discard that it is a immediate response to Trump's intention of buying Greenland. A lot of "fossil fuel money" on the Arctic and seems that the governments don't care that we can suffer an abrupt climate change in the mean time.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on August 18, 2019, 04:53:09 AM
Interesting news that could also be related:

Quote
The Next Chernobyl Could Be at Sea

Later this month, a flotilla of tugboats will leave Murmansk, a port in Russia's northwest, towing the Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear power plant. The ships will travel 3,700 miles east to Pavek, a remote port in Russia's northeast. There the plant's two small reactors will power homes, as well as mining and drilling operations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-16/russia-china-are-leading-push-for-floating-nuclear-power-plants (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-16/russia-china-are-leading-push-for-floating-nuclear-power-plants)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 22, 2019, 03:14:29 PM
Only the best deals!  8)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 23, 2019, 05:47:00 AM
Norwegian Coast Guard sails to the North Pole!

https://www.arctictoday.com/a-norwegian-coast-guard-ship-just-reached-the-north-pole/

Quote
TV2 reports that the Norwegian ship partly sailed in a path in the ice made by a Russian icebreaker. Sailing with tourists to the North Pole, the nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 let Pobedy has been to the top of the world five times this summer.

Where do you buy tickets?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on August 25, 2019, 11:43:17 AM
a probably silly question:
Who is responsible for that signpost the two skippers are standing at?
Because currents move the ice around in the Arctic Ocean it will move as well and not be located at the exact polar position. And what if the ice melted,? The signpost will drown.
Or does any crew heading for the North Pole carry a signpost like this with them for photographic purposes?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 25, 2019, 11:45:40 AM
a probably silly question:
Who is responsible for that signpost the two skippers are standing at?
Because currents move the ice around in the Arctic Ocean it will move as well and not be located at the exact polar position. And what if the ice melted,? The signpost will drown.
Or does any crew heading for the North Pole carry a signpost like this with them for photographic purposes?

This is just my wild ass guess, but I think it is just something people going to the NP can bring with them for novelty photos.
I could be wrong, of course.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 25, 2019, 11:46:35 AM
Where do you buy tickets?

https://www.polarcruises.com/arctic/ships/icebreaker/50-years-of-victory
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 25, 2019, 12:30:20 PM
a probably silly question:
Who is responsible for that signpost the two skippers are standing at?
Because currents move the ice around in the Arctic Ocean it will move as well and not be located at the exact polar position. And what if the ice melted,? The signpost will drown.
Or does any crew heading for the North Pole carry a signpost like this with them for photographic purposes?

This is just my wild ass guess, but I think it is just something people going to the NP can bring with them for novelty photos.
I could be wrong, of course.

I thought it was the responsibility of the North Pole Sign Posting and Direction Indicating Bureau.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 25, 2019, 02:03:58 PM
Santa Claus maintains the sign.  (duh!)  ::)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on August 26, 2019, 02:44:40 AM
A serious sidenote: the sign is not permanent.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on August 26, 2019, 07:42:25 AM
@oren
You mean something's going to happen to Santa? That IS serious  ::)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2019, 11:38:56 AM
Santa Claus maintains the sign.  (duh!)  ::)

Here's the evidence:
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 29, 2019, 02:36:15 AM
Russia Discovers 5 Arctic Islands as Glaciers Melt
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/08/28/russia-discovers-five-islands-climate-change-melts-arctic-ice/amp/
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/28/russia-discovers-5-arctic-islands-as-glaciers-melt-a67051

The Russian military has officially confirmed the discovery of five new Arctic islands which have emerged as climate change accelerates glacial melting.

Ranging in size from 900 to 54,500 square metres, the five tiny islands are located in the cove of Vize off the northeastern shore of Novaya Zemlya, which divides the Barents and Kara seas in the Arctic ocean, a defence ministry statement said.

The islands were previously concealed under the Nansen glacier, also known as the Vylka, which is part of Europe's largest ice cap covering much of Novaya Zemlya's northern island.

The retreat of Arctic ice amid rising air and ocean temperatures has been unveiling unknown landforms. In 2015-18, the hydrographic service observed more than 30 islands, capes and bays near Novaya Zemlya and Franz Josef Land for the first time through satellite monitoring. More are expected to be found.

A US study last year concluded that the ice loss by glaciers on Franz Josef Land had doubled between 2011 and 2015.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on September 17, 2019, 01:04:49 PM
Turning the Arctic brown

Despite this, from a scientific point of view, much of the Arctic is unexplored and unknown. One thing we know for certain is that for approximately 35 years it has seen increasing growth of vegetation — a process known as ‘Arctic greening’. However, now it looks as though some of it might actually be turning brown.

When satellites in space detect plants on Earth they measure the ‘greenness index’, in other words, how green the ground cover of plants is. How lush the foliage on the ground appears from space can represent a number of aspects down on earth, from plant growth to leaf area. But if areas of the Arctic are browning, it may indicate something else as well: plant death.

The plant death can be a result of extreme weather events, which are becoming more frequent in the Arctic as the climate warms. A sudden period of warmth in the middle of winter tricks the plants into thinking it’s spring, so they burst bud early and lose their cold hardiness, leaving them unprepared for a return to normal cold winter temperatures. The plant die-back that follows the events of this ‘extreme winter warming’ also appear to be significantly reducing the ability of Arctic ecosystems to help combat climate change.

https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/arctic-browning-1.864694
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 17, 2019, 01:46:05 PM
Strange that would be a new thing. You can always have a warm snap.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on September 23, 2019, 02:16:25 PM
Modeling of physical mechanisms for ice mass loss from marine and marine-terminating glaciers is a complex matter; which consensus climate model not yet adequately address, as illustrated by the linked reference which studied observations of marine-terminating glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to find that atmospheric forcing has dominated the observed image mass loss.  To me the difficulties in modeling marine and marine-terminating glacial ice mass loss represents a significant risk to society with continued global warming.

Alison J. Cook et al. (13 Mar 2019), "Atmospheric forcing of rapid marine-terminating glacier retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 3, eaau8507, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8507

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/3/eaau8507.full

Abstract: "The Canadian Arctic Archipelago contains >300 glaciers that terminate in the ocean, but little is known about changes in their frontal positions in response to recent changes in the ocean-climate system. Here, we examine changes in glacier frontal positions since the 1950s and investigate the relative influence of oceanic temperature versus atmospheric temperature. Over 94% of glaciers retreated between 1958 and 2015, with a region-wide trend of gradual retreat before ~2000, followed by a fivefold increase in retreat rates up to 2015. Retreat patterns show no correlation with changes in subsurface ocean temperatures, in clear contrast to the dominance of ocean forcing in western Greenland and elsewhere. Rather, significant correlations with surface melt indicate that increased atmospheric temperature has been the primary driver of the acceleration in marine-terminating glacier frontal retreat in this region."

Extract: "It is now widely acknowledged that ocean temperature increase has been the dominant driver of glacier retreat in other polar regions in recent years, particularly along the western Antarctic Peninsula, around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and in western Greenland. In contrast, we show that, in the CAA, the substantial rise in atmospheric temperature in the 21st century has outweighed any regional impact of changing ocean temperature on marine-terminating glacier frontal behavior. It follows that ocean temperature cannot be assumed to be the primary driver of marine-terminating glacier retreat in all polar regions and that studies of local processes are needed to understand the impacts of climate change on glacier behavior."

Bolding mine. I think this is possibly an interesting detail about the region.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 24, 2019, 12:26:51 AM
Walrus - 1; Russian Navy - nil

Walrus Attacks Russian Navy, Sinking Inflatable Boat
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/walruses-attack-russian-navy-sinking-inflatable-boat/

Last week, a Russian Navy rescue tug—the Altai from the Northern Fleet—dispatched a rigid inflatable boat to Wilczek Island in the Franz Josef Land archipelago, which is an Arctic island chain occupied only by wildlife and Russian military personnel. Aboard the boat were sailors and scientists from the Russian Geographic Society, and as they attempted a landing at Cape Geller, their boat was attacked and sunk by a female walrus, "[which] she probably did fearing for her cubs," an RGO news release noted.

While the boat sank, the crew leader managed to get the boat close enough to land for everyone to get ashore safely, according to the RGO's spokesperson.

No walruses were harmed, according to the Northern Fleet

(https://i0.wp.com/www.worldwidewalrusweb.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/walrusattack1.jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 24, 2019, 09:57:38 PM
Scientists set sail on yearlong expedition to Arctic centre
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/arctic-centre-scientist-expedition-german-icebreaker-rv-polarstern-1.5293837
Quote
Researchers from more than a dozen nations launched Friday the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the central Arctic — a yearlong journey through the ice they hope will improve the scientific models that underpin our understanding of climate change.

The 140-million euro ($158 million Cdn) expedition will see scientists from 19 countries including Germany, the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China work together in one of the most inhospitable regions of the planet.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Niall Dollard on September 24, 2019, 11:25:23 PM
Scientists set sail on yearlong expedition to Arctic centre


MOSAiC.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.0.html

There is already a stickied thread open on this, above.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on September 26, 2019, 02:07:20 PM
An interesting proposal to safe ice?

Quote
Tiny glass beads might seem an unlikely hero in the fight against climate change, but they may end up playing an outsize role in tackling one of the natural world’s most dire predicaments. A group of researchers have found that millions of these spheres spread in a layer across swaths of Arctic ice reflects sunlight and helps keep the ice frozen.

...

Field calls her idea “an embarrassingly simple concept.” Warmer temperatures have reduced the bright white multiyear ice (essentially thicker, stiffer ice) in the Arctic, and the resulting loss in light reflectivity leads to heating and further ice melt. “I just asked myself a very simple question: Is there a safe material that could help replace that lost reflectivity?” Field says. The answer, her team found, was to add a very thin layer of hollow glass spheres made of silica, the main component of most rocks, that reflect light and “make very thin ice look a lot more like multi-year ice.”

...

Last year, the team covered almost 18,000 square yards on lake ice in Utqiagvik (previously Barrow), Alaska, for pilot tests. While they work on permitting with the Environmental Protection Agency for testing on sea ice, they are collaborating with NASA on modeling.

The results so far are encouraging. In May 2018, the team published a peer-reviewed paper in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future journal, revealing the results and projections of their initial pilot testing. In one field test, the material increased reflectivity by 15 to 20 percent. Their models have predicted the beads could significantly stop ice decline and even reverse it. Simulations showed a potential 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature reduction over a large part of the Arctic, a 3-degree sea temperature reduction in some areas, and an increase in sea ice thickness of up to 20 inches.
and more on:
https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2019/09/arctic-ice-is-melting-faster-than-expected-these-scientists-have-a-radical-idea-to-save-it/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on September 26, 2019, 06:03:53 PM
^^
I'm sure they have the best of intentions but, it is a form a geo-engineering, a techno-fix. With likely unintended and bad consequences. When will 'we' (civilisation) ever learn?  :(

'We' have to stop to try and control nature. It's been disastrous.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on September 26, 2019, 06:32:56 PM
How much CO2 is emitted making that glass?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on October 01, 2019, 09:31:04 AM
Putin wants to slow down global warming so Russia can pump more oil and gas ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-29/climate-change-russia-s-oil-and-gas-heartlands-are-under-threat?fbclid=IwAR1gpj9eq_ZsGLpXiay33FdgLP5_AriSCnLzTYH-wNjuZh94ffOpmqxLZV4
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on October 03, 2019, 05:37:16 AM
Arctic Council nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize

Link >> https://arcticportal.org/ap-library/news/2207-arctic-council-nominated-for-the-nobel-peace-prize
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on October 07, 2019, 04:56:10 PM
Scotland proposing to be Europe´s gateway to the Arctic

Quote
The Scottish government published its first Arctic Policy Framework on 23 September 2019. On that occasion Scotland´s External Affairs Secretary said, “Scotland has the expertise and vision to serve as a link between the Arctic region and the wider world with opportunities to help tackle issues such as sustainable tourism, renewable energy and climate change.”

The news Arctic Connections on the Scottish Government webpage claim that 27.5% of Scotland´s overseas exports in the year 2017 is related to trading with countries that have territories in the Arctic and that these major trading partners are also the origin of nearly half of all foreign direct investments in Scotland. It continues with stating that “The framework sets ambitions for Scotland across the Arctic while encouraging academia, civic society and government organisations to have a greater level of collaboration with international counterparts.”


Link >> https://arcticportal.org/ap-library/news/2209-scotland-proposing-to-be-europe-s-gateway-to-the-arctic
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on October 08, 2019, 04:13:54 PM
Here's a nice Arte doku about the Arktis. Sorry, only in German and French available. :(

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Je-XIAI5PmM
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Stephan on October 08, 2019, 10:35:03 PM
Sorry, only in German and French available. :(

No sorryness. Both languages fit well to me   ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: charles_oil on October 09, 2019, 12:10:09 AM
Any chance you could put the French language link as well ?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 05, 2019, 03:21:24 AM
Zack Labe on Twitter: "Yikes ...”
https://mobile.twitter.com/zlabe/status/1191404874526687233
Image below.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Sigmetnow on November 08, 2019, 03:51:55 AM
Kris Van Steenbergen on Twitter: "We're heading to the hottest Arctic fall season in 3M years. Entire basin & Greenland 16°C to 28°C warmer than normal.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/krvast/status/1192379141880000512
Image below. GIF at the link.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on November 08, 2019, 01:54:27 PM
Climate change: Sea ice loss linked to spread of deadly virus

The decline in sea ice seen in the Arctic in recent decades has been linked by scientists to the spread of a deadly virus in marine mammals.

Researchers found that Phocine distemper virus (PDV) had spread from animals in the North Atlantic to populations in the North Pacific.

The scientists say the spread of pathogens could become more common as ice declines further.

The 15-year study tracked seals, sea lions and otters via satellite.

for details see:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-50333627
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on November 12, 2019, 04:29:03 PM
Satellite Data Shows Loss of Snow Cover, Not Soot to Blame for Rapid Temperature Rise in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-satellite-loss-soot-blame-rapid.html

A team of researchers from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the University of Washington and the University of Wisconsin-Madison has found evidence that shows the rapid rise of temperatures in the Arctic is caused by the loss of snow and ice cover, and not soot. In their paper published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the group describes studying satellite data for the region over a 32-year period, and what it showed them about surface temperatures

The researchers report that they found a 1.25-to-1.51 percent per decade absolute reduction in mean surface albedo for the Arctic during the spring and summer seasons. They also found that the reduction in snow and ice cover for sea ice, snow cover over the sea and snow covering the ground contributed equally to the reductions in albedo. They conclude by suggesting that surface temperature warming combined with a reduction in snowfall have been the primary reasons for the rapid increase in temperatures in the Arctic.

This finding is in direct contrast to prior studies blaming soot for the decrease in albedo. To back up their claim, the researchers note that soot covering snow in the Arctic has been declining over the past three decades, yet the rise in surface temperatures has continued unabated.

(https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2019/11/05/1915258116/F1.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1)

Albedo trend. Area- and energy-weighted average of multimonth (March to September of each year) mean (A) surface albedo over the entire Arctic and (B) planetary albedo over the Arctic oceanic area (north of 60°N).

Rudong Zhang et al. Unraveling driving forces explaining significant reduction in satellite-inferred Arctic surface albedo since the 1980s (https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1915258116), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2019).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on November 15, 2019, 12:16:57 AM
Couldn't figure out where to put this so ...

Sea Ice Movements Trace Dynamics Transforming the New Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-floe-sea-ice-movements-dynamics.html

Research led by the University of California, Riverside, is the first to use moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer, or MODIS, satellite imagery to understand long-term ocean movements from sea ice dynamics. (... I think A-Team might beg to differ)

... "No one had bothered before to use MODIS because the satellite is sensitive to clouds and it's hard to identify ice," Martinez said. "Our algorithm automatically filters clouds and uses other image processing algorithms that give the velocity and trajectory of the ice floes."

"MODIS data is one of the longest records of earth ever compiled," said first author Rosalinda Lopez, a graduate student in Martinez's lab. "This means that we are able to expand our analysis to almost two decades to observe the variability of sea ice as dramatic changes transform the region."

(https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S0034425719304250-ga1.jpg)

R.Lopez-Acosta, et.al. Ice Floe Tracker: An algorithm to automatically retrieve Lagrangian trajectories via feature matching from moderate-resolution visual imagery (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0034425719304250), Remote Sensing of Environment (2019)

Abstract:

Satellite observations of sea ice along marginal ice zones suggest a strong coupling between sea ice transport and the underlying ocean turbulent eddy field. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery spanning over almost two decades of daily observations at a resolution of up to 250  m provides a good resource for deriving long-term ocean kinematics from sea ice dynamics.

In this paper, we present a newly developed automatic algorithm to retrieve dynamic measurements of sea ice from these images. We describe the methodology by presenting results acquired along the East Greenland Current (ECG) for 6.5  weeks in the spring of 2017. During this period, our ice floe tracker was used to identify and track ice floes with length scales ranging from 8 to 65  km. By effectively filtering atmospheric conditions from MODIS images, ice floes were tracked for up to ten consecutive days, and a total of 1061 trajectories were retrieved.

 A southward mean sea ice flow associated with the ECG was observed along with deviations in both direction and magnitude, suggesting the effect of an underlying turbulent eddy field. The absolute position and tracking errors associated with our method are 255  m and 0.65  cm/s, respectively, each derived from a comparison between manually and automatically identified ice floes. Going forward, our methodology will be employed to process longer time sequences to analyze nonlinear interactions between drifting ice floes and the upper ocean turbulent eddy field in the ECG as well as to investigate other prominent regions of the Arctic Ocean.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: sidd on November 15, 2019, 05:30:05 AM
Thats a nice paper by Acosta et al.
Looking forward to arctic wide  analysis.

sidd
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on November 15, 2019, 02:33:13 PM
Agree
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tony Mcleod on November 20, 2019, 10:36:08 AM
Crazy spike, s'gotta be 13 or14C above average. :o

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2019.png&hash=125e4b570a7f4c5c6a7b2b6c2b5319be)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 20, 2019, 05:42:38 PM
At least it's still below freezing.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Phil. on November 20, 2019, 09:54:47 PM
Crazy spike, s'gotta be 13 or14C above average. :o

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2019.png&hash=125e4b570a7f4c5c6a7b2b6c2b5319be)

It's been there for 4 days now.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on November 24, 2019, 08:39:22 PM
Extraordinarily Warm Fall a Big Problem in Canadian Arctic
https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/extraordinarily-warm-fall-a-big-problem-in-canadian-arctic-1.4699973

For Keith Morrison, the consequences of this fall's extraordinarily warm weather across the North all came down to an urgent call for help. The fire chief for the Arctic community of Cambridge Bay in Nunavut was at home the evening of Oct. 6 when he got word that a couple had fallen through the ice near a river mouth.

"It was pitch black," Morrison recalled. "It was a close thing."

It shouldn't have been a thing at all. That stretch of ice is normally safe by this time of year, but this autumn has not been normal.

"What differentiated this year was we saw a widespread warmer temperature anomaly across the board in the Arctic," said Environment Canada meteorologist Eric Dykes. "Temperature anomalies that are five degrees above normal are happening a little bit more readily than they have in years past."

Data from around the Arctic bear him out.

In Inuvik, N.W.T., temperatures on every single day between Sept. 1 and Nov. 11 were above normal. In Nunavut, Pond Inlet had only one day of below normal, while above-normal days occurred about 80 per cent of the time in the communities of Cambridge Bay and Pangnirtung.

Not only were temperatures warm, the amount of warming was noteworthy.

The Canadian Forces Station at Alert, on the top of Ellesmere Island, broke a record for Sept. 6 this year by six degrees. Pond Inlet experienced one day that was 11 degrees warmer than average.

And not only did Resolute, Nunavut, record 68 days of above-normal warmth, nearly half of those days were outside the normal temperature variation. Kugluktuk, Nunavut, was similar -- 58 warmer-than-average days, 34 of them outside the normal range.

... It's not the only change.

"There have been more sightings of killer whales, increasing every year," Arreak said.

"Insects are being reported that aren't usually around the area. We don't even know what they're called."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on November 25, 2019, 12:56:54 PM
I’m worried’: Alaska’s ice cellars melting due to climate change after being used to store food for generations

...

Ranging from small arctic root cellars to spacious, wood-lined underground chambers, ice cellars are typically stocked with vast amounts of whale, walrus, seal and caribou.

These chambers, usually built 10 to 12 feet below the surface, have long been used to age subsistence food to perfection and ensure a steady supply during the sparser months, which is critical for survival.

...

“I’m worried,” said Gordon Brower, a Utquiagvik whaling captain whose family owns two ice cellars.

One is more than a century old more than 100 years old and used to store at least two tonnes whale meat set aside for community feasts. The other, built in 1955, is used to feed Mr Brower and his family.

He recently asked his son to retrieve some whale meat from the one of the cellars, and discovered both were in a bad state.

“He came back and said: ‘Dad, there’s a pool of blood and water at the bottom,’” said Mr Brower, who is now housing the community’s meat under a tarpaulin sheet above ground.

for details see:
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change-permafrost-alaska-ice-cellars-melting-inupiat-food-storage-whaling-a9216571.html
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: SimonF92 on November 25, 2019, 06:25:13 PM
Cool article, pardon the pun, but where on earth is;

" a native village built precariously on a thin spit of land caught between the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"

 :-\
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on November 25, 2019, 06:29:37 PM
Quote
the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"
oceans?
I didn't know the Chukchi was an ocean  ;D
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: oren on December 04, 2019, 03:09:44 AM
In reality Point Hope is wholly on the Chukchi Sea coast.

Point Barrow (Utqiagvik) is the official border between the  Chukchi and the Beaufort Sea.
Wrangel Island is the border between the Chukchi and the East Siberian Sea.
And of course the Bering Strait is the border between the Chukchi and the Bering Sea.
The Barrow-Wrangel line, or somewhere north of it, is the less-defined border to the Arctic Ocean.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-PPYh6xv1_oI%2FUgmHMhNuFXI%2FAAAAAAAAARI%2FF0AecMOHJMs%2Fs1600%2FPointHopeAK.jpg&hash=b31b034cffd25516b10a1f4012205e55)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 12, 2019, 05:12:40 PM
EARTHQUAKE!

M 4.7 - North of Severnaya Zemlya

Time
2019-12-12 03:18:24 (UTC)
Location
83.323°N 115.124°E
Depth
10.0 km
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: paolo on December 12, 2019, 05:26:15 PM
exact, apparently long a fault line (not very active)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on December 13, 2019, 08:04:07 AM
The race to lay claim on the Bering Strait as Arctic ice retreats

Melting sea ice is prompting fevered dreams of ever-easier access, and a renewed jockeying among Arctic nations for status, profit and ownership


https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/12/bering-strait-northwest-passage-arctic-ice-melts
  by Kieran Mulvaney

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on December 13, 2019, 04:55:04 PM
Comparison of Climate Simulations with Proxies Suggests Arctic Sea Ice Could Vanish in Summer Sooner than Expected
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-comparison-climate-simulations-proxies-arctic.html

Climate models suggest that at some point in the near future, all of the Arctic sea ice will melt each summer. In this new effort, the researchers suggest that it will be sooner than climate models have been suggesting. The work involved exploring why proxy data shows the planet heating up more during a prior global warming period 6,000 to 8,000 years ago (called the Holocene thermal maximum) than current climate models. Proxies are things such as preserved pollen or ice cores from a given time period that give hints about temperatures during that period—since humans were not able to record temperatures at the time, scientists use these proxies instead.

The work by the researchers in Korea involved running 13 climate models to learn more about the thermal maximum, and then comparing what they showed with proxies. They report that they found that the most up-to-date simulations showed a bigger decline in Arctic sea ice than older models (because the ice would have continued melting into early winter), possibly explaining the discrepancy between proxy data and older simulations. They further suggest that their findings do not bode well for the current warming trend, because it suggests that Arctic sea ice will begin vanishing sooner than older climate models have predicted—and less ice means less energy reflection, contributing to faster global warming.

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/5/12/eaax8203/F2.large.jpg?width=800&height=600&carousel=1)
Fig. 2: Surface temperature and Arctic sea ice responses: (A and B) Zonally averaged, latitude-time Hovmöller plots of surface temperature anomalies in (A) the four warmest models and (B) the four coldest models. The abscissa is time (months) and the ordinate is latitude. Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC; %) anomalies in (C and D) the four warmest models and (E and F) the four coldest models, averaged in (C and E) July to November and (D and F) December to April.

The zonal mean time-latitude Hovmöller plots of surface temperature show that high-latitude (60°N-85°N) warming in summer persists into winter in the four warmest models (Fig. 2A), whereas the summer warming does not persist in the four coldest models (Fig. 2B). These results appear robustly in the case when the second and third warmest/coldest models are chosen for the Hovmöller plots of surface temperature (fig. S4), verifying that the seasonally persistent high-latitude warming is a general feature of warm models rather than an average artifact associated with the extremely warm model, CNRM-CM5. These results indicate that the key difference between the warmest and the coldest models is the magnitude of summer heating and its persistence into winter.

In the warmest models, Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in summer-autumn decreases by 30 to 35% over wide areas of the Arctic relative to the preindustrial climate (Fig. 2C), and these SIC anomalies persist into winter and early spring over the marginal ice zone (Fig. 2D), indicative of delayed refreezing and reduced ice growth (28). This autumn-winter sea ice loss is accompanied by increases in heat transfer from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, primarily through turbulent heat fluxes (fig. S5), further contributing to the Arctic amplification via the cloud radiative feedback (28–30). Moreover, the near-surface temperature inversion in the cold season confines the warming to the surface (30), and the associated weakening of temperature inversion can contribute to the Arctic amplification (23).

... The Arctic sea ice cover during the HTM was likely smaller than the preindustrial climate, as shown by proxy records (8, 9), which is consistent with a substantial Arctic warming in the mid-Holocene.

Quote
... this finding has implications for the projection of future climate change. Climate models simulating more Arctic sea ice loss in response to the mid-Holocene insolation generally exhibit higher sensitivities to an increased CO2 concentration (38). Therefore, our results suggest that the projected Arctic sea ice decline will likely to be faster than the multimodel ensemble mean prediction.

Open Access: Hyo-Seok Park et al. Mid-Holocene Northern Hemisphere warming driven by Arctic amplification (https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/12/eaax8203), Science Advances (2019).

Abstract

The Holocene thermal maximum was characterized by strong summer solar heating that substantially increased the summertime temperature relative to preindustrial climate. However, the summer warming was compensated by weaker winter insolation, and the annual mean temperature of the Holocene thermal maximum remains ambiguous. Using multimodel mid-Holocene simulations, we show that the annual mean Northern Hemisphere temperature is strongly correlated with the degree of Arctic amplification and sea ice loss. Additional model experiments show that the summer Arctic sea ice loss persists into winter and increases the mid- and high-latitude temperatures. These results are evaluated against four proxy datasets to verify that the annual mean northern high-latitude temperature during the mid-Holocene was warmer than the preindustrial climate, because of the seasonally rectified temperature increase driven by the Arctic amplification. This study offers a resolution to the “Holocene temperature conundrum”, a well-known discrepancy between paleo-proxies and climate model simulations of Holocene thermal maximum.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 14, 2019, 02:46:11 PM
Equinor drops plan for oil transfer terminal near North Cape

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/eqinor-drops-oil-terminal-plan-near-north-cape
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 14, 2019, 02:48:25 PM
Amid state go-ahead for Arctic coal, growing doubts about big dig

Quote
State experts approve VostokCoal’s plans to export millions of tons of black rocks from the Taymyr Peninsula, but the grand project might not materialize.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/grand-arctic-coal-project-gets-go-ahead-state-experts
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 14, 2019, 02:49:30 PM
Greenland’s Kangerlussuaq Airport to Close For Major Commercial Traffic in 2024 Due to Climate Change

Link >> https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/arctic-week-take-five-week-december-9-2019/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 14, 2019, 06:32:19 PM
Very interesting, B_!
Article includes:
Quote
... Kangerlussuaq Airport will be closed to commercial airlines ... due to shorter runways from rapidly melting permafrost. ...

Greenland’s airports are one of the many cases where rapid thawing permafrost will alter the lives of those in the Arctic. Recent studies on permafrost decline confirm that 70 percent of the Arctic’s roads, buildings, and airports have a high potential to be affected by thawing ground over the next 30 years. The effects of permafrost melt are not limited to road and housing infrastructure but also affect prospective developments in Russia’s Yamal region and Alaska’s Trans Alaska Pipeline.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 14, 2019, 06:54:18 PM
Tor, i wasn't too sure if i was spamming or not, but what can i do when they post so many interesting articles, right? ;)

Thanks, Gerontocrat, for the x-posts. :)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on December 17, 2019, 12:12:29 AM
Earth's Magnetic North Pole Continues Drifting, Crosses Prime Meridian
https://www.livescience.com/amp/earth-magnetic-north-passes-prime-meridian.html

Compasses in Greenwich, London, are about to point to the "true north" for the first time since 1660—when Charles II was on the throne and the first English settlers were setting about colonizing the Americas.

Earth's magnetic north pole, which has been wandering faster than expected in recent years, has now crossed the prime meridian.

Magnetic north has been lurching away from its previous home in the Canadian Arctic toward Siberia at a rate of about 34 miles (55 kilometers) a year over the past two decades. The latest model of the Earth's magnetic field, released Dec. 10 by the National Centers for Environmental Information and the British Geological Survey, predicts that this movement will continue, though likely at a slower rate of 25 miles (40 km) each year.

... For reasons not entirely understood but related to the planet's interior dynamics, the magnetic field is currently undergoing a period of weakening. That's why magnetic north is drifting.

As of February 2019, magnetic north was located at 86.54 N 170.88 E, within the Arctic Ocean, according to the NCEI. (Magnetic south similarly does not line up with geographic south; it was at at 64.13 S 136.02 E off the coast of Antarctica as of February 2019.)

The 2020 model shows the "Blackout Zone" around magnetic north where compasses become unreliable and start to fail because of the proximity of true north. The new maps also show magnetic north east of the prime meridian, a boundary the pole crossed in September 2019.

(https://thumbor.forbes.com/thumbor/711x474/https://blogs-images.forbes.com/trevornace/files/2019/02/magnetic-north-pole-1200x800.jpg?width=960)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 17, 2019, 03:18:28 AM
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on December 17, 2019, 06:22:45 AM
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 17, 2019, 10:23:32 AM
On Rosatom’s wishing list is a large nuclear-powered oil tanker that can break through thick Arctic ice

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/rosatoms-wishing-list-large-nuclear-powered-oil-tanker-can-break-through
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 17, 2019, 10:24:23 AM
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Why not? Let's see what happens. :)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on December 17, 2019, 10:49:24 AM
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Why not? Let's see what happens. :)
I'm asking for a friend ... wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects? But I guess nobody knows what will happen, and it's not going to flip all of a sudden as far as I understand it. More of a very slow (frum a human viewpoint) transition lasting some thousands of years.

Although I can see from Wikipedia that the Laschamp "excursion" of some 41.000 years ago lasted only a few hundred years, before flipping back. The strength of the magnetic field during transition was apparently only 5% of normal, leading to an increase in Be10 and C14 in Greenland ice cores, indicative of an increase in cosmic radiation and presumably an increase in cancer and birth defect rates.

So let's wait and see what happens, by all means, and wish for it as we go into the holiday season.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 17, 2019, 11:20:42 AM
wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?

I bet there was! For how i understand it, it's not correct.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on December 17, 2019, 11:40:43 AM
wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?

I bet there was! For how i understand it, it's not correct.
As I understand it the Earth's magnetic field protects us, and our satellites, from a lot of solar nasties. A large reduction in the strength of that field would likely also mean the solar wind would cause a decay in the orbits of satellites.

be careful what you wish for.
________________________________________________________
Quote
The Earth's magnetic field serves to deflect most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.

Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Earth's_magnetic_field
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 17, 2019, 01:35:46 PM
Earth's Magnetic Field is Changing Too Much - Should We Worry?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eH_jx9YS8OE
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on December 17, 2019, 03:32:29 PM
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.
Why?

Because it would be fun.
IIRC, you would need the equivalent of weather forecasts to figure out where the poles will be in a week, and/or you could have three, four or more poles.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: nanning on December 17, 2019, 05:13:21 PM
I wouldn't worry about that. We all know the BIG PROBLEMS.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 17, 2019, 05:20:37 PM
IIRC, you would need the equivalent of weather forecasts to figure out where the poles will be in a week

Nah, the process is so slow, a glacier was called Speedy Gonzales by it once. ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on December 17, 2019, 05:25:43 PM
Re: next magnetic reversal
Call it "God's" solution to overpopulation and the 'consequent' climate chaos?  She (He or It, I cannot decide) has more tools up her sleeve than some of us thought!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on December 22, 2019, 04:36:03 PM
Putin’s new Arctic law paves way for biggest ever industrialization in icy north

Offshore oil, liquified natural gas and the petrochemical industry will soon benefit from big tax cuts in new Arctic projects.


Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2019/12/putins-new-arctic-law-paves-way-biggest-ever-industrialization-worlds
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on January 20, 2020, 12:10:20 PM
Low sulphur fuel found to have higher black carbon emissions than HSFO

Mandated into law for less than three weeks and very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO), shipping’s new number one bunkering choice, is already facing calls to be banned, especially in Arctic waters.

A submission made by Finland and Germany to the International Maritime Organization (IMO) suggests VLSFO has higher black carbon emissions than its forebear, high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO).

...

“New hybrid fuels with 0.50% sulphur content used in the study contained a high proportion of aromatic compounds in a range of 70% to 95%, which resulted in increased [black carbon] emissions in a range of 10% to 85% compared to HFO,” the study claimed. The higher emissions were most noticeable when the engine was running at less than full capacity.

...

The black carbon news has quickly seen a number of NGOs call for VLSFO found to have high aromatic contents to be banned for ships transiting Artic waters.

https://splash247.com/low-sulphur-fuel-found-to-have-higher-black-carbon-emissions-than-hsfo/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: dnem on January 22, 2020, 05:51:55 PM
Ok, here's a very random observation.  I have a solar array on my house and was just playing around with some of my output data.  The array has been in place since 2011.  I just noticed that the first four months of 2012 are all the highest output for that month in the 9 year record. That is, January 2012 output was the highest of any of 9 Januaries since I had the array, February was the highest February, March was the highest March, and April was the highest April.  And the difference is not even close.  Here at 39.29° N, 76.61° W winter/early spring 2012 was VERY, unusually sunny.  Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on January 23, 2020, 03:02:22 AM
Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!
Possibly related observation about 2012 -

     By filtering out long-term CO2 driven trend, ENSO (El Nino), Solar cycle, and Aerosol values, it is possible to remove a large portion of the year to year variation in annual average NASA GISS temperature for every one of the past 11 years except for 2012.  But the "model" fails miserably for predicting the difference between 2012 and 2011.  The only other year with a negative correlation between the model estimate and observed value also involves 2012 - the difference between 2013 and 2012. 

    So for reasons unknown to me (BTW - I'm not a climate scientist, just another ASIF onlooker hanging around the scene of the crime), 2012 was an oddball year with respect to a robust pattern that applies quite strongly to every other of the 11 years in 2009-2019.

    Of course, for the Arctic Ocean we have the great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012 to explain why Extent tanked that year.  Worth noting that
   a) the ASI low Volume record set in 2012 is much less extreme than the Extent record, and
   b) Extent and Volume recovered rather quickly. 

    Thus it seems that while 2012 remains an epic event in recent ASI history, it was largely a short-term disturbance that brought submerged heat to the surface and created a drastic but short-lived effect on Extent.  That loss of heat energy led to a pseudo-recovery over the following years.

    In comparison, while 2019 did not break the 2012 record, it shows a broader impact of continued warming in the condition of the remaining ice that is thinner, saltier, and less resistant to melt; has lost virtually all of the thickest multi-year "anchor" ice; and reflects a system that has been functionally altered (e.g. loss of Beaufort Gyre nursery). 

    While some idiot with bad hair might claim that "Hey, there's more September Arctic sea ice now than there was 7 years ago, what's the problem?", the situation is actually much more dire than a simple accounting of Extent or Area, or even the more informative Thickness and Volume, indicate.  The ASI is like a termite-riddled wooden beam.  The surface appearance does not fully indicate the structural weakness within. 

     I suspect that the next Arctic Cyclone with similar storm energy as the 2012 event will cause even more dramatic damage than 2012 because it will be interacting with a thinner and more fractured ice pack, will have longer wind fetch for wave generation from more open water, and have much higher levels of submerged heat energy to bring up.  In addition to all that, the probability of a storm as strong or stronger than 2012 increases with the continued warming of Arctic ocean water, more frequent and intense incursions of warm air masses, increasing Arctic humidity, weakening of the polar jet, Atlantification etc. 

    All amateur speculation of course, by someone who knows just enough to be emphatically wrong, but hey my GISS model works (except for 2012)!

    PS Lest you think I exaggerate the potential correlation between bad hair and stupidity, one such person recently tweeted that New York City should get ready with mops and buckets instead of considering an expensive public works infrastructure project to reduce risk from rising sea level.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on January 23, 2020, 06:52:05 AM
Ok, here's a very random observation.  I have a solar array on my house and was just playing around with some of my output data.  The array has been in place since 2011.  I just noticed that the first four months of 2012 are all the highest output for that month in the 9 year record. That is, January 2012 output was the highest of any of 9 Januaries since I had the array, February was the highest February, March was the highest March, and April was the highest April.  And the difference is not even close.  Here at 39.29° N, 76.61° W winter/early spring 2012 was VERY, unusually sunny.  Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!
I'd be careful to assume that the amount of solar energy available was the cause here. Solar arrays do degrade with time, and they do become dirty. So unless proven wrong, I'd assume that this is what you are seeing - solar cell degradation, not fall in solar energy.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: El Cid on January 23, 2020, 07:37:39 AM
Solar cell degradation is much slower than that, something like 1% per year. But it is possible that they got dirty (lots of dust around maybe?) Do you clean your cells regularly? Dirt could explain it
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on January 23, 2020, 07:56:33 AM
Solar cell degradation is much slower than that, something like 1% per year. But it is possible that they got dirty (lots of dust around maybe?) Do you clean your cells regularly? Dirt could explain it

Well, reading what people write is an important but all-too-often ignored capability. This time it was me that didn't bother to read the full post from dnem, but he clearly says that there was a big difference (hence degradation is out) and that  differences in cloud cover were clearly the cause.

On the other hand, given the location in down-town Baltimore, dust would presumably also be a big factor, but easy to fix.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: dnem on January 23, 2020, 12:36:43 PM
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output.  I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments.  One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all.  I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big.  It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012.  Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on January 23, 2020, 01:31:56 PM
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output.  I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments.  One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all.  I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big.  It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012.  Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.
Well, yes, degradation is probably less than 1% per year. And when it is VERY sunny, changes in cloud cover would be presumably be the direct cause! What the ultimate cause may be I leave to others to ponder.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: dnem on January 23, 2020, 05:23:33 PM
Sorry to clutter this thread with this stuff, but thought some that responded might find it interesting. When I got my system, the installer provided a monthly predicted output based on the orientation, angle and potential for shading of my system.  I used that to standardize the data, with monthly output expressed as a percentage of the predicted value for that month.  First I just averaged each year's monthly Actual/Predicted to look at degradation. A linear regression through the values indicates a decay of 0.29% year.

Then I plotted every month as a percentage of that month's prediction for all years 2011 through 2018.  Early 2012 stands out as a long period of high output, sunny weather.

I had some system issues in 2018 that make the second half of the year's data suspect.


Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on January 28, 2020, 09:11:20 AM
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.

Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on January 28, 2020, 01:33:16 PM
Please edit links down to their normal format:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change

All the rest is fb tracking crap.

ETA interesting indeed. Including how it possibly feeds back on the Bering sea ice.

https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/01/21/1717707117
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on January 28, 2020, 02:30:24 PM
last:
So you delete back to and including the question mark?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on January 28, 2020, 02:38:14 PM
Yes , the questionmark signals the trackers start.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on January 28, 2020, 02:58:19 PM
Quote
Typical URL containing a query string is as follows:

http://example.com/over/there?name=ferret

When a server receives a request for such a page, it may run a program, passing the query string, which in this case is, name=ferret unchanged, to the program. The question mark is used as a separator, and is not part of the query string.

Meaning, everything after the question mark can easily be dismissed, can contain tracking code.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 28, 2020, 03:58:17 PM
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.

Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.

https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR0KN0oBsTrcQexueQkPcGt6yoLahuwv1YVrMTCB8eXqgtLgGCgLVVvbiKc

Thanks for the link. Well worth the read.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on January 28, 2020, 06:06:14 PM
Artificial Intelligence Helps Experts Forecast Icebergs
https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/artificial-intelligence-helps-experts-forecast-icebergs-climate-atlantic-study-geography-1.879632

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/4-artificialin.jpg)

A recently published control systems model has been used to predict that between 479 and 1,015 icebergs will reach waters south of 48°N—the area of greatest risk to shipping traveling between Europe and north-east North America—in 2020, compared with 1,515 observed there last year.

In an innovative new model approach, the team have used experimental artificial intelligence analysis to independently support the low iceberg number prediction while also predicting a rapid early rise in the number of icebergs in this area during the ice season of January to September.

The findings are supplied to the International Ice Patrol (IIP) to inform resource use for better regular ice forecasts during the season. The seasonal forecast suggests that the probability of an iceberg encounter for ships in the north-west Atlantic will be less than it was last year.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on January 28, 2020, 09:49:10 PM
Please edit links down to their normal format:
My bad, being lazy and quite likely pre-senile as well. But I'll strive for improvement!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on January 28, 2020, 10:10:21 PM
You should still be able to edit the post.  ;)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on February 09, 2020, 06:06:02 PM
EARTHQUAKE

Quote
M 5.0 - 228km E of Nord Greenland

Time     2020-02-09 13:32:53 (UTC)
Location 81.246°N 4.301°W
Depth    10.0 km
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on February 19, 2020, 05:22:25 PM
Another one.

M 4.5 - 210km WSW of Longyearbyen, Svalbard and Jan Mayen

Time
2020-02-19 09:38:24 (UTC)
Location
77.453°N 7.462°E
Depth
10.0 km
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on February 24, 2020, 06:42:42 AM
Interesting article (https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-destabilization-unlikely-cause-methane-burp) published by the Scripps institute about methane in permafrost.

https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/climate-destabilization-unlikely-cause-methane-burp

Quote
“Anthropogenic methane emissions currently are larger than wetland emissions by a factor of about two, and our data show that we don’t need to be as concerned about large methane releases from old carbon reservoirs in response to future warming,” said Petrenko.  “Instead we should be more concerned about the methane that is being released from human activities now.”
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on February 25, 2020, 08:01:15 PM
Researchers find new reason Arctic is warming so fast

The Arctic has experienced the warming effects of global climate change faster than any other region on the planet. Scientists at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography have developed a new theory aided by computer simulations and observations that helps explain why this occurs.

A team led by Scripps researcher Emma Beer observed the changes taking place in the Arctic Ocean, which is largely covered by sea ice for most of the year. There, an unusual situation exists where the water is warm at depth and cold near the surface. The deeper waters are fed by the relatively warm Pacific and Atlantic oceans, whereas the near-surface waters are in contact with sea ice and remain close to the freezing point. Heat flows upward from the warmer water to the colder water.

The scientists found that the deeper water is getting still warmer as a result of climate change, but the near-surface water below the sea ice remains close to the freezing point. The increasing difference in temperature leads to a greater upward flow of heat. Beer, Scripps climate scientist Ian Eisenman, and researcher Till Wagner of the University of North Carolina estimate that this phenomenon is responsible for about 20% of the amplification of global warming that occurs in the Arctic.

"While previous work has found mechanisms related to the surface and the atmosphere that cause Arctic amplification, our finding is that there is also a fundamental reason why the ocean causes polar amplification when the polar region is covered with sea ice," Eisenman said of the National Science Foundation-supported study. The results are published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

https://phys.org/news/2020-02-arctic-fast.html

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 25, 2020, 08:51:40 PM
I've 'always' wondered if there was any heat transfer across the halocline and pycnocline.  That research suggests, "Yes!"
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on February 26, 2020, 01:29:07 PM
I always figured there should be some but how much and is it relevant compared to other processes are the more complicated questions.

The article is paywalled so if anyone with access could quote a bit with the numbers/timescales in the article that would be great. TIA.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: paolo on March 03, 2020, 04:13:38 PM
New earthquake between Greenland and Svalbard
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on March 03, 2020, 04:17:31 PM
Hmm, what's going on down there?  ???
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: FrostKing70 on March 03, 2020, 09:11:46 PM
Interesting article on the heat trapped in the deeper water.  Does anyone know of any research or theory about how far this can go until the warmer water "flips" with the cold and rises to the surface?  It feels like the system has to reach a point where it becomes unstable and the warmer water comes to the top.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on March 04, 2020, 04:23:11 AM
  Does anyone know of any research or theory about how far this can go until the warmer water "flips" with the cold and rises to the surface?  It feels like the system has to reach a point where it becomes unstable and the warmer water comes to the top.

   Not an answer to your question, but in addition to the heat flow issue, declining ice cover and exposure of surface water to wind could play a significant role.  I can't remember source, but recent article discussed increased Ekman pumping from increased surface winds in the Arctic.

Elsewhere -
"Sea ice regulates exchanges of heat, moisture and salinity in the polar oceans."
https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html (https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html)
  - a good review by NSIDC, last updated: 11 October 2019.

------

  Another recent good overview:
In-depth: Understanding the impacts of changing Arctic storms
DAISY DUNNE  13.01.2020
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-understanding-the-impacts-of-changing-arctic-storms (https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-understanding-the-impacts-of-changing-arctic-storms)

    “There is some suggestion that Arctic cyclones may be more frequent now, but the problem is we don’t have a whole lot of measurements from before. Maybe the previous lower frequency we’ve observed is due to the fact that our models, or our reconstructions of the past, aren’t complete enough.”

---------

  But don't expect another 2012 Great Arctic Cyclone anytime soon.  Apparently it was truly an outlier event.  Compared to all storms on record at time of publication (1979–2012):

   " Even though, climatologically, summer is a ‘quiet’ time in the Arctic, when compared with all Arctic storms across the period it came in as the 13th most extreme storm, warranting the
attribution of ‘Great’.  "

    " Using our multiple-index approach (based on cyclone properties and longevity) we conclude that AS12 was the most extreme August Arctic  cyclone (out of a population of 1618). When all Arctic cyclones were considered (which included the more vigorous winter systems) AS12 ranked in position 13 out of a compilation of 19625 storms. This storm truly deserves the title of ‘The Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012’. "

Source:  The great Arctic cyclone of August 2012.  Ian Simmonds and Irina Rudeva
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L23709, doi:10.1029/2012GL054259, 2012

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on March 04, 2020, 02:45:15 PM
There is a reason why we have multiple layers of water. The deep water is warmer and saltier and is flowing into the Arctic while the ice and fresher water on top come from local rivers. It ´floats´on the deeper water because it is lighter.

When the ice melts storms can mix them (see above).

We have more and more open water for longer which increases that possibility.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on March 05, 2020, 10:33:42 AM
Over warming Barents Sea comes a cool wave

Quote
Data from the past five years show that the Barents waters have became colder and more icy.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-ecology/2020/03/over-warming-barents-sea-comes-brief-cool-wave
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on March 10, 2020, 11:38:36 AM
Levels of Law
Understanding the complexity of the European Union’s legal Arctic presence.


Link >> https://www.thearcticinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/TAI-Infographic-EU-Arctic.pdf
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: paolo on March 12, 2020, 05:39:38 AM
 Another earthquake in the greenland sea  :o
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on March 23, 2020, 12:14:49 AM
Hidden source of carbon found at the Arctic coast

Summary:
A new study has shown evidence of undetected concentrations and flows of dissolved organic matter entering Arctic coastal waters coming from groundwater flows on top of frozen permafrost. This water moves from land to sea unseen, but researchers now believe it carries significant concentrations of carbon and other nutrients to Arctic coastal food webs.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200321093204.htm

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15250-8
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on March 29, 2020, 01:16:52 PM
Seafloor of Fram Strait is a sink for microplastic from Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean

Working in the Arctic Fram Strait, scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) have found microplastic throughout the water column with particularly high concentrations at the ocean floor. Using model-based simulations, they have also found an explanation for this high level of pollution. According to their findings, the two main ocean currents in Fram Strait transport the microscopically small plastic particles into the region between Greenland and Spitsbergen from both the Arctic and the North Atlantic. While passing through the Strait, many particles eventually drift to the seafloor, where they accumulate. The experts report on this phenomenon in a study just released in the journal Environmental Science & Technology.

...

"We found the highest concentration of microplastic particles in water at our northernmost sampling spot near the sea-ice edge," reports AWI biologist and first author Mine Tekman. In the area technically referred to as the marginal ice zone, one cubic metre of surface water contained more than 1,200 microplastic particles, though this hardly came as a surprise to the researchers. "From previous studies we knew that the Arctic sea ice can contain as much as 12,000 microplastic particles per litre of meltwater. When this ice reaches the end of its journey and melts in the northern Fram Strait, it most likely releases its microplastic load into the sea, which would explain the high concentration in the surface waters," she adds.

In contrast, the level of pollution was 16,000 times higher in sediments at the bottom of Fram Strait. The analysis of sediment samples with a Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) revealed up to 13,000 microplastic particles per kilogramme of sediment. "This large quantity of particles and the various types of plastic we found in the sediment confirm that microplastic is continually accumulating on the seafloor of Fram Strait. In other words, the deep sea in this region is a sink for microscopically small plastic particles," says AWI deep-sea expert and co-author Dr Melanie Bergmann.

...

It should also be mentioned that more than half of all plastic particles identified were smaller than 25 micrometres in diameter, roughly half the thickness of a fine human hair. "This high percentage of truly minute particles is of course troubling, as it immediately raises the question of how marine organisms respond to these minuscule bits of plastic waste," says Melanie Bergmann. To answer this question, British colleagues are currently investigating whether the crustaceans in the AWI's Arctic zooplankton samples have consumed any plastic.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/03/200327141517.htm
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on April 07, 2020, 03:24:52 PM
The Arctic Ocean May Not Be a Reliable Carbon Sink

The rapid changes happening in the Arctic Ocean, including increasing freshwater input, could dramatically affect its ability to store carbon.

Historically, scientists have believed that the Arctic Ocean will be an important carbon sink in the coming years—ice melt will increase the surface area that’s exposed to the air, facilitating carbon uptake from the atmosphere, and cold Arctic waters can store more carbon dioxide (CO2) than warmer waters.

Or at least that’s what was supposed to happen. But scientists have begun to suspect that this might not be the case, and new research suggests that the Arctic Ocean is, in fact, not as reliable a carbon sink as we thought. Using data from three research cruises (in 1994, 2005, and 2015), scientists were able to chart how the physical properties of the Arctic Ocean (including total alkalinity, temperature, and dissolved inorganic carbon) changed over time.

They found that over the course of the past 20 years, although the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has gone up, the amount of dissolved inorganic carbon in Arctic waters has unexpectedly decreased.

That’s because reduced sea ice isn’t the only major change that’s happening in the Arctic Ocean.

“There’s actually been a huge increase of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean,” said Ryan Woosley, a marine physical chemist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and lead author of the study. “The Arctic is kind of unique compared to the other oceans because there’s a huge amount of river input compared to the size of the ocean…and fresh water has a very low alkalinity or buffering capacity, so this has reduced the ability of the Arctic Ocean to take up CO2.”

...

https://eos.org/articles/the-arctic-ocean-may-not-be-a-reliable-carbon-sink

Freshening of the western Arctic negates anthropogenic carbon uptake potential (OA)

https://aslopubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/lno.11421
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on April 12, 2020, 10:04:55 AM
Coronavirus Puts Arctic Climate Change Research On Ice
https://amp.dw.com/en/coronavirus-puts-arctic-climate-change-research-on-ice/a-53061086

Coronavirus lockdowns have been touted on social media as helping to fight climate change. But in the Arctic Circle the virus is disrupting climate science. It could leave important gaps in our understanding.

... The fallout from measures to contain the outbreak have made the research impossible. Greenland is closed to foreigners. Its government is worried any outbreak could be particularly dangerous to its indigenous population and rapidly overwhelm its health services.

Even if the country were open, it just isn't practical to bring an international team of scientists together, 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers) away from the nearest airport, in case one of them is sick. The transport planes that normally fly in the teams and resupply them have also been grounded. Nobody wants to be responsible for bringing small, isolated communities into contact with the virus.

... When the team returns next year, it's data and understanding they will have lost. Another year of snow will have buried trenches and covered equipment, meaning they will spend more time repairing and replacing buildings and hardware.

"In the worst-case scenario there will be a 12-month gap," he says. "Some of that data can be filled in with satellites and remote sensing, other parts are unique and will be lost." ...
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: paolo on April 13, 2020, 11:06:12 AM
New earthquake in the Arctic:

M 4.3 - East of Severnaya Zemlya
2020-04-12 11:57:09 (UTC)
78.956°N 123.911°E
10.0 km depth

I attach its location as well as, to put it in context, the history of the past year and the history of the other hot zone (with respect to earthquakes) in the Arctic.
In this second historical record, the most recent tremor, marked in white, is from 2020-04-05 (M 4.2).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on April 19, 2020, 01:05:23 PM
'Hidden' water in the ocean could be key to understanding how creatures feed

...

Scottish scientists working with marine robots have measured previously hidden patches of water between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans that could dramatically alter the understanding of how the ocean’s food web forms.

Created in the northern part of the Barents Sea, as cooler and fresher water from the Arctic moves south and becomes trapped within the warmer and saltier water from the Atlantic, these eddies - circular movements of water that have broken off from an ocean current - measure roughly 18.6 miles across.

Despite their size, the eddies are invisible to satellites and had gone unnoticed until oceanographers from the Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS), in Oban, picked up some unusual readings during a trial mission of an underwater glider.

The autonomous glider moves across the ocean to depths of 200 metres collecting data, including heat and salinity, every kilometre. This allowed the SAMS team to measure one of these eddies in detail.

While this particular eddy’s surface temperature was similar to the surrounding water, masking it from satellites, its lower salt content made it stand out in the glider readings.

....

She said: “We get a pretty good idea about what’s happening on the very surface of our ocean through satellites but eddies like this one have been hidden from view because they have warmed at the surface since leaving the Arctic.

“This temperature masking means we have previously underestimated how much water moves within these patches in the Arctic Seas. It begs the question: how many more of these hidden eddies are occurring in the ocean today?”

...

https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18386098.hidden-water-ocean-key-understanding-creatures-feed/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: uniquorn on April 30, 2020, 11:42:58 AM
drift and noise  SVALNAV
(https://youtu.be/d7pfpX1fnYo)
https://youtu.be/d7pfpX1fnYo
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on May 02, 2020, 03:13:00 PM
Not really new but for those with an interest in the AMOC:

Seafloor Discovery Shows The Ocean's Undergoing a Change Not Seen in 10,000 Years

Changes in ocean circulation may have caused a shift in Atlantic Ocean ecosystems not seen for the past 10,000 years, new analysis of deep-sea fossils has revealed.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 09, 2020, 01:51:58 AM
Tschudi, M. A., Meier, W. N., and Stewart, J. S.: An enhancement to sea ice motion and age products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), The Cryosphere, 14, 1519–1536, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-1519-2020, 2020.
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1519/2020/ (https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1519/2020/)
 
   "...Overall, ice speed increased in Version 4 over Version 3 by 0.5 to 2.0 cm s−1 over most of the time series. Version 4 shows a higher positive trend for the Arctic of 0.21 cm s−1 per decade compared to 0.13 cm s−1 per decade for Version 3 (ed. note:  Thus the new estimate of acceleration in sea ice motion is about 10% per decade).

      The new version of ice age estimates indicates more older ice than Version 3, especially earlier in the record, but similar trends toward less multiyear ice.

     Changes in sea ice motion and age derived from the product show a significant shift in the Arctic ice cover, from a pack with a high concentration of older ice to a sea ice cover dominated by first-year ice, which is more susceptible to summer melt. We also observe an increase in the speed of the ice over the time series ≥ 30 years, which has been shown in other studies and is anticipated with the annual decrease in sea ice extent.

 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on May 09, 2020, 01:53:44 AM
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/05/Figure6.1.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/1999/05/Figure6.1.png)

Ice age March 1985 vs March 2020
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on May 25, 2020, 01:04:14 PM
Those pesky rodents get everywhere! Interesting article on glacier mice (https://www.npr.org/2020/05/22/858800112/herd-like-movement-of-fuzzy-green-glacier-mice-baffles-scientists).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on June 03, 2020, 07:10:21 PM
State of emergency in Norilsk after 20,000 tons of diesel leaks into Arctic river system

Link >> https://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/state-of-emergency-in-norilsk-after-20000-tons-of-diesel-leaks-into-arctic-river-system/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Aluminium on June 05, 2020, 12:25:22 PM
Containment booms have stopped the spill before Lake Pyasino. It will take a time to collect it.

(https://sun9-66.userapi.com/bXOEyXbvuyjLKx_cajazexjImEraqb3seV45hw/EBYorLfncRY.jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on June 24, 2020, 03:04:12 PM
The Russian Arctic is seeing record-breaking heat, and an early start to wildfires

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/the-russian-arctic-is-seeing-record-breaking-heat-and-an-early-start-to-wildfires/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on June 29, 2020, 03:16:24 AM
Russian Mining Giant Admits Waste 'Violations' at Arctic Plant
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-russian-giant-violations-arctic.html

A Russian mining giant behind an enormous Arctic fuel spill last month said Sunday it had suspended workers at a metals plant who were responsible for pumping wastewater into nearby tundra.

(https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2020/maplocatingr.jpg)

Norilsk Nickel cited a "flagrant violation of operating rules" in a statement announcing it had suspended employees responsible for dumping wastewater from a dangerously full reservoir into a wildlife area.

The incident occurred at the Talnakh enrichment plant near the Arctic city of Norilsk, the company said, one month after the unprecedented fuel leak sparked a state of emergency declared by President Vladimir Putin.

More than 21,000 tonnes of diesel leaked from a fuel storage tank at one of the company's subsidiary plants near Norilsk. The fuel seeped into the soil and dyed nearby waterways bright red.

A source told Interfax news agency Sunday that in the most recent case, around 6,000 cubic meters of liquid used to process minerals at the facility had been dumped and that the discharge had lasted "several hours".

It was impossible to determine how far the wastewater had dispersed, the source said.

https://youtu.be/xAkOLS_LaCs

Independent newspaper Novaya Gazeta published videos from the scene showing large metal pipes carrying wastewater from the reservoir and dumping foaming liquid into nearby trees.

The journalists claimed the factory deliberately funnelled the wastewater into wildlife areas and hastily removed their pipes when investigators and emergency services arrived on the scene.

Heavy machinery used to clear the pipes crushed a car delivering officials to the scene, Novaya Gazeta reported.

(https://siberiantimes.com/upload/information_system_52/7/8/4/item_7843/information_items_7843.jpg)

Interfax said no one was injured in the incident which was also being probed
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 29, 2020, 08:00:14 PM
https://twitter.com/mikarantane/status/1277171510764068864

Quote
How much faster is the #Arctic warming than the global average? Locally up to 5 times faster, but in general 3-4 times.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EblsIIjWAAU24Nf?format=jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 29, 2020, 08:01:19 PM
Quote
If using only the past 30-year trends, the warming rate is higher and reaches locally up to 7 times! (Note the different color scale).

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eblswv9WkAA0fyS?format=jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 29, 2020, 08:02:40 PM
Quote
Was interested in different datasets when I saw @ClimateofGavin  tweet - seems to be similar or even enhanced (ratio up to 5.75) in Cowtan and Way using their Kriging (preliminary plot, apologies for projection :))

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbpeYF1UMAABEEV?format=jpg)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on June 29, 2020, 08:13:44 PM
The most significant warming is really in the area Vavilov Ice Cap

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-unprecedented-ice-loss-russian-cap.html

Quote
The Vavilov Ice Cap thinned by a total of a few meters, advanced about 2 km, and lost about 1.2 km3 in total volume into the ocean in the 30 years before the speedup. In the one year between 2015 and 2016, the ice advanced about 4 kilometers and thinned by about 100 meters (~0.3 m per day). The ice cap lost about 4.5 km3 of ice, enough to cover Manhattan with about 250 feet of water, or the entire state of Washington with an inch. And it's unlikely the ice cap will ever be able to recover ice mass in today's warming climate, the paper states.

(https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2018/20-unprecedente.jpg)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeC47jxiuuA
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on July 01, 2020, 03:10:27 AM
Beavers Gnawing Away at the Arctic Permafrost
https://phys.org/news/2020-06-beavers-gnawing-arctic-permafrost.html

Alaska's beavers are profiting from climate change, and spreading rapidly. In just a few years' time, they have not only expanded into many tundra regions where they'd never been seen before; they're also building more and more dams in their new homes, creating a host of new water bodies. This could accelerate the thawing of the permafrost soils, and therefore intensify climate change, as an International American-German research team reports in the journal Environmental Research Letters.

(https://cdn.iopscience.com/images/1748-9326/15/7/075005/Full/erlab80f1f2_lr.jpg)
The upper two images are photos taken within the study area in 2016 showing the tundra region setting. The bottom two images are taken from similar tundra across Hotham Inlet in 2015 (lower left) and 2011 (lower right) showing beaver dams in a drained lake basin outlet and along a beaded stream course, respectively.

... Back in 2018, Ingmar Nitze and Guido Grosse from the AWI, together with colleagues from the U.S., determined that the beavers living in an 18,000-square-kilometer section of northwest Alaska had created 56 new lakes in just five years. For their new study, the team from the AWI, the University of Alaska in Fairbanks, and the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis have now taken a closer look at this trend. Using detailed satellite data and extended time series, the experts tracked the beavers' activities in two other regions in Alaska—and were surprised by what they found.

"Of course, we knew that the beavers there had spread substantially over the last few decades," says Nitze. This is partly due to climate change; thanks to rising temperatures, now more and more habitats offer the shrubs that the animals need for food and building material. Furthermore, the lakes, which used to freeze solid, now offer beaver-friendlier conditions, thanks to their thinner seasonal winter ice cover. Lastly, the rodents aren't hunted as intensively as in the past. As a result, it's a good time to be a beaver in the Arctic.

"But we never would have dreamed they would seize the opportunity so intensively," says Nitze. The high-resolution satellite images of the roughly 100-square-kilometer study area near the town of Kotzebue reveal the scale of the animals' activities there. From just two dams in 2002, the number had risen to 98 by 2019—a 5,000-percent increase, with more than 5 new dams being constructed per year. And the larger area surveyed, which covers the entire northern Baldwin Peninsula, also experienced a beaver dam boom. According to Nitze, "We're seeing exponential growth there. The number of these structures doubles roughly every four years."

This has already affected the water balance. Apparently, the rodents intentionally do their work in those parts of the landscape that they can most easily flood. To do so, sometimes they dam up small streams, and sometimes the outlets of existing lakes, which expand as a result. "But they especially prefer drained lake basins," Benjamin Jones, lead author of the study, and Nitze report. In many cases, the bottoms of these former lakes are prime locations for beaver activity. "The animals have intuitively found that damming the outlet drainage channels at the sites of former lakes is an efficient way to create habitat. So a new lake is formed which degrades ice-rich permafrost in the basin, adding to the effect of increasing the depth of the engineered waterbody," added Jones. These actions have their consequences: in the course of the 17-year timeframe studied, the overall water area in the Kotzebue region grew by 8.3 percent. And roughly two-thirds of that growth was due to the beavers.

The researchers suspect that there have been similar construction booms in other regions of the Arctic; accordingly, they now want to expand their 'beaver manhunt' across the Arctic. "The growth in Canada, for example, is most likely even more extreme," says Nitze. And each additional lake thaws the permafrost below it and on its banks. Granted, the frozen soil could theoretically bounce back after a few years, when the beaver dams break; but whether or not the conditions will be sufficiently cold for that to happen is anyone's guess.

(https://cdn.iopscience.com/images/1748-9326/15/7/075005/Full/erlab80f1f3_lr.jpg)
Mapping beaver dams in high-resolution satellite imagery available for the northern Baldwin Peninsula, Alaska. The location of individual dams indicated with red arrow and the flow direction with a light blue arrow. (a) A series of four dams at the outlet of a lake, (b) a ~60 m long dam built in a drained lake basin, (c) a series of dams at the outlet of a lake near a confluence with a beaded stream, (d) a series of dams in a channel running through the middle of a drained lake basin, (e) five dams progressing down the outlet channel of a thermokarst lake, and (f) a series of dams in a beaded stream gulch. Examples shown here taken from 2019 images; note differences in scale across image frames. All dams were constructed after 2002.

Benjamin M. Jones et al, Increase in beaver dams controls surface water and thermokarst dynamics in an Arctic tundra region, Baldwin Peninsula, northwestern Alaska, Environmental Research Letters (2020).
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab80f1
Title: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on July 05, 2020, 10:38:41 PM
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/
Title: Re: Re: 2020 Sea ice area and extent data
Post by: Frivolousz21 on July 06, 2020, 12:11:25 AM
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.

https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752
Quote
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)

 The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.

And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/


Is there any other information out there about the AMSR3 instrument?

Those high GHZ channels are going to be super high res like 1-2km or better.


Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on July 08, 2020, 12:01:29 AM
Climate Change May Cause Extreme Waves in Arctic
https://phys.org/news/2020-07-climate-extreme-arctic.html

New research projects the annual maximum wave height will get up to two to three times higher than it is now along coastlines in areas of the Arctic such as along the Beaufort Sea. The new study in AGU's Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans suggests waves could get up to 2 meters (6.6 feet) higher than current wave heights by the end of the century.

In addition, extreme wave events that used to occur once every 20 years might increase to occur once every two to five years on average, according to the study. In other words, the frequency of such extreme coastal flooding might increase by a factor of 4 to 10 by the end of this century.

"It increases the risk of flooding and erosion. It increases drastically almost everywhere," said Mercè Casas-Prat, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Climate Research Division and the lead author of the new study. "This can have a direct impact to the communities that live close to the shoreline."

... Among the hardest-hit areas was in the Greenland Sea, which lies between Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. The study found maximum annual wave heights there could increase by as much as 6 meters (19.7 feet).

... The researchers' predictions also showed that by the end of the century, the timing of the highest waves may also change.

"At the end of the century, the maximum will on average come later in the year and also be more extreme," Casas-Prat said.

... In another recent study published in AGU's journal Geophysical Research Letters, Casas-Prat and Wang examined the contribution of sea ice retreat on the projected increases in extreme wave heights in the Arctic. They found that surface winds alone cannot explain the changes in the regional maximum wave heights.

"Sea ice retreat plays an important role, not just by increasing the distance over which wind can blow and generate waves but also by increasing the chance of strong winds to occur over widening ice-free waters," Casas-Prat said.

Increased waves could also increase the speed of ice breakup. The loss of ice due to waves could affect animals like polar bears which hunt seals on polar ice as well as a number of other creatures that rely on ice. It could also affect shipping routes in the future.

Mercé Casas‐Prat et al, Projections of extreme ocean waves in the Arctic and potential implications for coastal inundation and erosion, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015745

Mercè Casas‐Prat et al. Sea‐ice retreat contributes to projected increases in extreme Arctic ocean surface waves, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088100
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on July 08, 2020, 08:40:37 PM
A new polar bear denning study is a mixed bag for Alaska’s oil industry

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/a-new-polar-bear-denning-study-is-a-mixed-bag-for-the-oil-industry/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on July 10, 2020, 03:08:20 PM
A ‘regime shift’ is happening in the Arctic Ocean, Stanford scientists say

Stanford scientists find the growth of phytoplankton in the Arctic Ocean has increased 57 percent over just two decades, enhancing its ability to soak up carbon dioxide. While once linked to melting sea ice, the increase is now propelled by rising concentrations of tiny algae.


Scientists at Stanford University have discovered a surprising shift in the Arctic Ocean. Exploding blooms of phytoplankton, the tiny algae at the base of a food web topped by whales and polar bears, have drastically altered the Arctic’s ability to transform atmospheric carbon into living matter. Over the past decade, the surge has replaced sea ice loss as the biggest driver of changes in uptake of carbon dioxide by phytoplankton.

...

Arrigo and colleagues found that NPP in the Arctic increased 57 percent between 1998 and 2018. That’s an unprecedented jump in productivity for an entire ocean basin. More surprising is the discovery that while NPP increases were initially linked to retreating sea ice, productivity continued to climb even after melting slowed down around 2009. “The increase in NPP over the past decade is due almost exclusively to a recent increase in phytoplankton biomass,” Arrigo said.

Put another way, these microscopic algae were once metabolizing more carbon across the Arctic simply because they were gaining more open water over longer growing seasons, thanks to climate-driven changes in ice cover. Now, they are growing more concentrated, like a thickening algae soup.

“In a given volume of water, more phytoplankton were able to grow each year,” said lead study author Kate Lewis, who worked on the research as a PhD student in Stanford’s Department of Earth System Science. “This is the first time this has been reported in the Arctic Ocean.”

...

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/07/09/regime-shift-happening-arctic-ocean/

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on July 13, 2020, 11:02:20 AM
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: KenB on July 13, 2020, 02:02:04 PM
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundra
Quote
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.

Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra

Apparently another storage tank whose permafrost "foundation" gave way.  One wonders how many such there are.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Freegrass on July 14, 2020, 12:43:52 AM
Unu Mondo is a 4 months sailing expedition into the Arctic aimed to gather scientific data and testimonies from local communities to better anticipate climate change and promote concrete actions.

Leaving from Saint-Malo, France it will reach Greenland (2020) then Alaska through the famous Northwest Passage (2021), stopping on the road in the villages of the West coast of Greenland and will culminate in a documentary.

Unu Mondo team is composed of 2 skippers, a handful of scientists and a pinch of audiovisual professionals.

Departure on June 29, 2020
https://www.unumondo.org/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on July 14, 2020, 01:50:49 PM
Russia seeds clouds in Siberia to douse raging wildfires

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/russia-seeds-clouds-in-siberia-to-douse-raging-wildfires/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russia-seeds-clouds-in-siberia-to-douse-raging-wildfires
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: KenB on July 16, 2020, 10:48:15 PM
Something new *above* the arctic:

ESA is changing the orbit of its CryoSat-2 satellite to periodically align with NASA's ICESat-2. This will provide radar and lidar measurements of the same ice, at nearly the same time. The campaign, dubbed #CRYO2ICE, will be taking place between 16 and 31 July and is the first of its kind.

The new data resulting from the campaign will allow scientists to measure snow depth from space on both sea and land, improving the accuracy of sea ice thickness measurements and ice-sheet elevation time series. The measurements will also help map snow over the poles and advance our understanding of currents in polar oceans, with further applications expected in the study of inland waters and the atmosphere.

https://earth.esa.int/eogateway/missions/cryosat/cryo2ice
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ajouis on July 18, 2020, 04:24:13 PM
Not that new but very informative on both the high pressure/low pressure and anticyclonic/waa debates on what is more conducive to melt (hint probably the formers is what the study says)

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014JD022608#jgrd52033-fig-0006

High melt months are linked to higher pressure, increased sea of Okhotsk cloud cover in the later part of the melt season, very weakly with increased surface temperatures who trend towards 0, less clouds overall but an increase at the ice edge in august, reduced precipitations overall but higher in the sea of Okhotsk, less arctic cyclones except northern Alaska and northeastern Siberia, also a southward jet shift in the N. Atlantic and increased sea ice export.
I really urge you to read it, it’s very informative. Obviously correlation isn’t causation. It also has various other snippets of information, notably on the relationships that exist with the weather patterns of the rest of the northern hemisphere.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: uniquorn on July 20, 2020, 09:57:40 PM
New bathy maps in netcdf and geotiff format
https://www.gebco.net/data_and_products/gridded_bathymetry_data/arctic_ocean/
very large files
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: KenB on July 22, 2020, 03:50:28 PM
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians. 
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ajouis on July 23, 2020, 10:42:27 AM
the formation of the sea ice ridges, they require freezing (-1.8 ) air temperatures to form.
https://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C05/E6-178-66.pdf

The initial phase starts during ridge formation and is characterized by the formation of
freeze-bonds. Three different heat fluxes are important: a) the surface flux ( qsur ), into the cold surrounding air, b) the oceanic flux ( qocean ), from the ocean beneath and c) the
internal fluxes ( qre ), in between the cold pieces of ice and the warm water pockets
inside the keel (Figure 3). The surface flux freezes the water pockets from the top and downwards and creates a cold front that defines the consolidated layer. The initial cold content of the ice is partly spent in making freeze bonds and partly consumed by the oceanic flux. The fraction that goes into making freeze bonds depends on the initial ice temperatures, the block thicknesses, the ridge size and the oceanic conditions. When all the ice and water below the cold front is isothermal that is at the freezing point of the surrounding water the initial phase ends.
The rubble beneath the consolidated layer is thermally insulated by the freezing front on top of it, and feels only the water below. Since the conditions are isothermal there is no longer any cold reserve available and the rubble decays continuously. The rubble transforms from individual ice blocks with freeze bonds to an ice skeleton with a hierarchy of pores, from a few centimeters and up to meter(s).
In the decay phase the ridge is heated both from the top and from the bottom. The ridge now either melts completely, or it transforms into a second-year ridge during the summer. Several processes take place. On the surface the warm air and the sun radiation melts the snow and the surface ice and creates relatively fresh melt-water. Its freezing point is above the temperature in the rubble so it will freeze as it drizzles down in the keel. This freezing process release heat and increases the temperatures in the rubble. In this way the decay phase includes both melting and freezing. Freezing can take place as long as there is cold capacity (ice temperature less than the freezing point of the melt water) in the keel. However, another mechanism can contribute to further consolidation. If the pore water salinity is changed cyclically, either by periodic surface melting or by tidally driven river runoff the ridge could actually expel heat into the surrounding water
and contribute to further freezing (consolidation). This mechanism is only shown in laboratory investigations and in simulations. Finally the ridge keel could collapse and in this way decrease the porosity and increase the degree of consolidation. By the end of the melt season the ridge has become a second-year ridge.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on July 23, 2020, 11:29:44 AM
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians.

Yesterday i saw there was a whole cluster of earthquakes. I was about to ask what's it all about but forgot to post it.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on July 28, 2020, 06:05:37 PM
It's not stopping. For a week or so there are lots of earthquakes.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 01, 2020, 05:35:00 AM
Article in Scientific American (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/with-fires-heat-and-a-cyclone-arctic-breaks-melting-record/) about the current state of affairs and some tentative predictions:

Quote
On the other hand, strong storms can substantially break up the ice, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to higher temperatures and faster melting later in the season. And they can churn up the ocean, as well, allowing warmer waters to rise to the surface.

Quote
It’s all part of the vicious cycle of Arctic climate change. Within just a few decades, scientists predict the Arctic could be seeing totally ice-free summers.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 01, 2020, 05:33:09 PM
The biggest ever science expedition to the Arctic encountered extremely thin sea ice, which could threaten future efforts to study the region.

A team on board the Polarstern icebreaker ship began drifting last September until their vessel became locked in an ice floe. In the area off the Russian continental shelf where they started their journey, the ice was exceptionally thin compared with what models had predicted for the past two decades. The ice was around 50 centimetres thick, while it had been around 150 to 160 centimetres thick in three years of …

Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2248111-arctic-explorers-find-unusually-thin-ice-as-a-result-of-climate-change/#ixzz6TsgwliNk
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 01, 2020, 07:31:55 PM
Or visit the MOSAiC thread (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2906.msg278510.html#msg278510) in this very forum.
:)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 01, 2020, 09:32:38 PM
Statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume anomaly: identifying predictors and optimal sampling locations.

This work evaluates the statistical predictability of the Arctic sea ice volume (SIV) anomaly – here defined as the detrended and deseasonalized SIV – on the interannual timescale. To do so, we made use of six datasets, from three different atmosphere–ocean general circulation models, with two different horizontal grid resolutions each. Based on these datasets, we have developed a statistical empirical model which in turn was used to test the performance of different predictor variables, as well as to identify optimal locations from where the SIV anomaly could be better reconstructed and/or predicted. We tested the hypothesis that an ideal sampling strategy characterized by only a few optimal sampling locations can provide in situ data for statistically reproducing and/or predicting the SIV interannual variability. The results showed that, apart from the SIV itself, the sea ice thickness is the best predictor variable, although total sea ice area, sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature, and sea ice drift can also contribute to improving the prediction skill.

https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/2409/2020/

Click to run, July 10th to 8th of August, sea ice thickness.

Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on August 01, 2020, 09:45:05 PM
    Interesting graphic from article posted above showing which sampling locations provided best reduction in variability for predicting Arctic sea ice volume.  They conclude that predictive skill increases with number of sample locations up to six, but predictive skill improvement by adding locations 7-10 was minimal.

Figure 8.  Optimal observing framework, as suggested by the ensemble of model outputs, for sampling predictor variables in order to statistically reconstruct and/or predict the pan-Arctic SIV anomaly. The numbers indicate the first up to the 10th best observing locations in respective order. The hatched area around each location (same colour code) represents their respective region of influence. The selection of points respects the hierarchy of the regions of influence in a way that the second point can not be placed within the region of influence no. 1 (shades of red), the third point can not be placed within the regions of influence nos. 1 and 2 (shades of red and purple), and so on.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 04, 2020, 05:50:25 PM
M 4.6 Earthquake north of Severnaya Zemlya

Time: 2020-08-04 14:52:15 (UTC)
Location: 83.441°N 115.387°E
Depth: 10.0 km
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 05, 2020, 02:13:02 PM
Earthquake north of Svalbard.

M 5.3 - north of Svalbard

2020-08-05 08:48:06 (UTC)

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us6000b9kr/executive
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 10, 2020, 03:04:18 AM


More freshwater could cause changes to ocean currents in the North Atlantic — the currents that help keep winter temperatures in northern Europe more mild, Jahn said.

This change might be felt within the next decade, if not already, she added.

“Within climate context, that’s kind of soon,” Jahn said.

Those colder winter temperatures would actually mitigate the impacts of global warming in northern Europe, she said — at least for a while.

But in the long term, disrupted ocean currents could have negative effects on climate and on the North Atlantic’s ecosystems, the study says.

https://www.rcinet.ca/eye-on-the-arctic/2020/08/04/fresh-water-is-pouring-into-the-arctic-ocean-climate-change-is-to-blame-new-study-says/
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 10, 2020, 06:50:56 AM
Interesting article this morning (https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/viden/klima/nye-tal-viser-dyster-udsigt-arktis-havisen-kan-vaere-vaek-i-naeste-aarti) on the newssite of "Danmarks Radio", the danish state broadcaster.

It is in Danish, but google translate will probably give a good gist of the content. But some highlights:

Quote
A new analysis from the University of Copenhagen and DMI, among others, shows that the air temperature near the surface of the Arctic Ocean has risen by an average of one degree per decade over the last 40 years.

In some areas it has risen by almost two degrees.

Further down they explain that the 2 degree rise has happened over those areas of ocean that used to be covered with ice but are now ice free in summer.

The article mentioned can be viewed here (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0860-7), although unfortunately not open-source.

Quote
Most scientists agree that the Arctic will be completely free of sea ice in summer during this century.

There is, however, disagreement as to when this will happen. Some climate models show that this will happen in the 2050s. Others point out that it could happen as early as the 2030s.

- But virtually none of the models have foreseen the rapid warming of the Arctic that we are already seeing now. This means that the sea ice can disappear even earlier, says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

He estimates that it is now the early estimates that are most realistic.

- It is problematic if we are too conservative in our estimate for when the sea ice is gone. Because that means we can not react in time, he says.

Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen is professor of climatology at the Niels Bohr Institute.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 12, 2020, 02:10:38 PM
Dr Victoria Herrmann is the president and managing director of the Arctic Institute

When the organic material begins to decompose, permafrost thaw can destabilize major infrastructure, discharge mercury levels dangerous to human health and release billions of metric tons of carbon. We witnessed small-scale damage in Russia that summer through slumped landscapes and uneven roads. At the time, the larger, more dramatic changes were predicted to unfold over the course of this century.

Four years later, those changes are happening much sooner than scientists predicted. The carbon-laden cold of the Arctic’s permafrost is leaking into Earth’s atmosphere, and we are not ready for the consequences.

In June, the Russian Arctic reached 100.4F, the highest temperature in the Arctic since record-keeping began in 1885. The heat shocked scientists, but was not a unique or unusual event in a climate-changed world. The Arctic is warming at nearly three times the rate of the global average, and June’s single-day high was part of a month-long heatwave. This relentless heat has melted sea ice and made traditional subsistence dangerous for skilled Indigenous hunters. It’s fueled costly wildfires, some of which are so strong they now last from one summer to the next. And it’s sped up permafrost thaw, buckling roads and displacing entire communities.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/aug/11/arctic-tundra-paris-climate-agreement
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 12, 2020, 11:11:14 PM
The latest study says that temperatures rose by 1 degree Celsius every decade over the past 40 years in the Arctic Ocean between Russia, Canada and Europe. In areas between Russia and Norway, temperatures increased by 1.5 degrees every decade over the past 40 years.

“We have been clearly underestimating the rate of temperature increases in the atmosphere nearest to the sea level,” said University of Copenhagen professor Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, one of the study’s researchers.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/08/12/arctic-warming-faster-than-previously-thought-study-a71119
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: J Cartmill on August 13, 2020, 06:38:33 PM
Not sure if this is the best place,  but I just read Konrad Steffen died after falling through ice in Greenland.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/renowned-climate-scientist-konrad-steffen-132226331.html (https://www.yahoo.com/news/renowned-climate-scientist-konrad-steffen-132226331.html)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: blumenkraft on August 13, 2020, 07:44:26 PM
OMG, that is horrible. :'(
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: kassy on August 13, 2020, 08:42:06 PM
Quote
Steffen fell into a deep crevasse full of water, Swiss media reports say, after snow and ice gave way beneath him while he worked near a weather station. Rescue attempts were unsuccessful, and his body was not found.

Clearly this is not the Greenland they were used to.

RIP Konrad Steffen. I know some will probably find this harsh but being buried in the Greenland ice sheet is actually pretty cool. Yes dying sucks but you would not be able to pull of the burial going through the usual paper work.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: dnem on August 14, 2020, 12:59:59 PM
RIP Konrad Steffen. I know some will probably find this harsh but being buried in the Greenland ice sheet is actually pretty cool.

It is certainly a dramatic and tragic metaphor for What's new in the Arctic.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on August 21, 2020, 11:45:52 PM
Arctic Ocean Moorings Shed Light On Winter Sea Ice Loss
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-arctic-ocean-winter-sea-ice.html

The eastern Arctic Ocean's winter ice grew less than half as much as normal during the past decade, due to the growing influence of heat from the ocean's interior, researchers have found.

(https://ams.silverchair-cdn.com/ams/content_public/journal/jcli/33/18/10.1175_jcli-d-19-0976.1/2/m_jclid190976-f1.png?Expires=1600968408&Signature=GgNWbk1ime08BMyVq7H6tDvmFWI3uzMR4HHWDeQWdELs-7oabClO-7QT2LxKfKzCLsrVWDNNciUrhwrbSzX175UvgwWRmvgvmU3WjGb8JMcwTZe9LFIlAf2CmieyxxIkTyf7ObX1BY7K~oQXPAKmlNfJXZG9sia9PJocbKFCR3jH0XzboZs6SwfPg2lw4fKOQxTEycpjp8QeYIPBRgKshhze4iUkKwwgUutAzzqN7mC818XMkZt00Nuyr7mJwHRUnuIfApgmHXJ~t5YMGwxBANj2DjTteAnKQX4VwhQRb0CyZH~6MIlnCe~teturCrHe8ipo~XoG8mvmw2USG8Vm7A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA)

The finding came from an international study led by the University of Alaska Fairbanks and Finnish Meteorological Institute. The study, published in the Journal of Climate, used data collected by ocean moorings in the Eurasian Basin of the Arctic Ocean from 2003-2018.

The moorings measured the heat released from the ocean interior to the upper ocean and sea ice during winter. In 2016-2018, the estimated heat flux was about 10 watts per square meter, which is enough to prevent 80-90 centimeters (almost 3 feet) of sea ice from forming each year. Previous heat flux measurements were about half of that much.

"In the past, when weighing the contribution of atmosphere and ocean to melting sea ice in the Eurasian Basin, the atmosphere led," said Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at UAF's International Arctic Research Center and FMI. "Now for the first time, ocean leads. That's a big change."

Typically, across much of the Arctic a thick layer of cold fresher water, known as a halocline, isolates the heat associated with the intruding Atlantic water from the sea surface and from sea ice.

This new study shows that an abnormal influx of salty warm water from the Atlantic Ocean is weakening and thinning the halocline, allowing more mixing. According to the new study, warm water of Atlantic origin is now moving much closer to the surface.

"The normal position of the upper boundary of this water in this region was about 150 meters. Now this water is at 80 meters,"
explained Polyakov.

(https://ams.silverchair-cdn.com/ams/content_public/journal/jcli/33/18/10.1175_jcli-d-19-0976.1/2/m_jclid190976-f11.png?Expires=1600968408&Signature=21S10hkjToB~nBXpzmaaxhc3obKVxLm-2wZKUtilKN5qDvvqplSYH6wHrrqVLTbwQ3u8iI49b6B8AV-fDVhcwWkN4l6g-jlT-tKJBGjdHHlmH4aWciUlWt1nJDZKvygFDaeMzXXt~eoPsjfrY34ZagknWLljHNJtxjmLEu-TAl7f~g3UpMXDLr~Lm4If9ihhs8RX57Mtc8n2LMfX0wpb4EBeipU9jRUnNWfD7Uyyhl7atsrMJumSw7zQf7mfn1KwB2IcbK~IZyNbIVd5oDBJ-o1HFbuZxiVA8p1kL1JaQWUw5VK87f4h8O0qOJgwGEc07Ibz5DEvDJ0w9ltK34ve-Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA)

A natural winter process increases this mixing. As sea water freezes, the salt is expelled from ice into the water. This brine-enriched water is heavier and sinks. In the absence of a strong halocline, the cold salty water mixes much more efficiently with the shallower, warm Atlantic water. This heat is then transferred upward to the bottom of sea ice, limiting the amount of ice that can form during winter.

Polyakov and his team hypothesize that the ocean's ability to control winter ice growth creates feedback that speeds overall sea ice loss in the Arctic. In this feedback, both declining sea ice and the weakening halocline barrier cause the ocean's interior to release heat to the surface, resulting in further sea ice loss. The mechanism augments the well-known ice-albedo feedback—which occurs when the atmosphere melts sea ice, causing open water, which in turn absorbs more heat, melting more sea ice.

When these two feedback mechanisms combine, they accelerate sea ice decline. The ocean heat feedback limits sea ice growth in winter, while the ice-albedo feedback more easily melts the thinner ice in summer.

"As they start working together, the coupling between the atmosphere, ice and ocean becomes very strong, much stronger than it was before," said Polyakov. "Together they can maintain a very fast rate of ice melt in the Arctic."

Polyakov and Rippeth collaborated on a second, associated study showing how this new coupling between the ocean, ice and atmosphere is responsible for stronger currents in the eastern Arctic Ocean.

According to that research, between 2004-2018 the currents in the upper 164 feet of the ocean doubled in strength. Loss of sea ice, making surface waters more susceptible to the effects of wind, appears to be one of the factors contributing to the increase.

The stronger currents create more turbulence, which increases the amount of mixing, known as shear, that occurs between surface waters and the deeper ocean. As described earlier, ocean mixing contributes to a feedback mechanism that further accelerates sea ice decline.

(https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/cms/asset/0023930a-70dd-48e2-9fd3-330ee68489c5/grl61024-fig-0002-m.png)

Igor V. Polyakov et al, Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean, Journal of Climate (2020)
https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8107/353233/Weakening-of-Cold-Halocline-Layer-Exposes-Sea-Ice

Igor V. Polyakov et al. Intensification of Near‐Surface Currents and Shear in the Eastern Arctic Ocean, Geophysical Research Letters (2020).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL089469
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on August 22, 2020, 04:49:04 AM
Thank you, extremely interesting!

The ocean is changing and new currents are indeed messing with things. And this fits in well with the hypothesis that has been gathering weight in the back of my head over the last few years, which is that increasingly open waters in the Arctic are becoming ever more destructive and will in the end cause the total collapse of the ice.

The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.

And of course, this means that there is no "protected" ice at the top, as can perhaps be seen this year more than ever. As the ice edge retreats, the rest of the ice will become ever more likely to melt.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 26, 2020, 05:44:03 PM
Helge Ryggvik, an oil historian at the University of Oslo, says Norway’s move is a result of the oil industry struggling, a crisis which has worsened during the coronavirus pandemic. “When prime minister Erna Solberg’s government announced the lease auction would go ahead, it was the culmination of a decades-long process that has seen Norway slowly edging ever further north,” he said.

Norway set the expected southern limit of ocean ice, also know as the “ice edge”, south of Svalbard in June. Oil exploration north of the edge is not permitted.

“In the recent ice-edge compromise, which redrew the zone, Norway is approaching the absolute limit of where oil exploration would be accepted by other nations,” said Ryggvik.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/26/norway-plans-to-drill-for-oil-in-untouched-arctic-areas-svalbard
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2020, 12:11:19 AM
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.
A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.

That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.

I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.

I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 27, 2020, 12:20:37 AM
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.
A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.

That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.

I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.

I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.

Great to study them Gerontocrat do you have one for the Greenland Sea?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2020, 12:30:11 PM
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?

Yes, but how much can ge gained from it?

If not for ice import from the Fram, the Grrenalnd sea would be ice-free in summer and much less ice in winter. So the data is very dependent on that ice import.

Just maybe there is a visible effect of the reduction in mult-year ice in the central arctic, so ice imported into the Greenland Sea is less thick and more easily melts out.
________________________________________________________
Note.
As the Greenland Sea has an open water boundary, I use the maximum daily sea ice extent from the satellite record as the physical area of the sea. The percentage of open water is for each period is calculated as follows....

Area of the Sea minus sea ice area = Open water
Open Water divided by Area of the Sea = % Open Water.

Calculate for each day and average for the period being graphed.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 27, 2020, 02:46:51 PM
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?

Yes, but how much can ge gained from it?
________________________________________________________
Note.
As the Greenland Sea has an open water boundary, I use the maximum daily sea ice extent from the satellite record as the physical area of the sea. The percentage of open water is for each period is calculated as follows....

Area of the Sea minus sea ice area = Open water
Open Water divided by Area of the Sea = % Open Water.

Calculate for each day and average for the period being graphed.

More to do with my last post why Norway is moving Oil exploration towards Svalbard and Russia expanded their military presence on the nearby Franz Josef Land archipelago, they must be expecting it to be ice free all year round in the near future.

Norway set the expected southern limit of ocean ice, also know as the “ice edge”, south of Svalbard in June. Oil exploration north of the edge is not permitted.

“In the recent ice-edge compromise, which redrew the zone, Norway is approaching the absolute limit of where oil exploration would be accepted by other nations,” said Ryggvik.

“In the past few years, Russia has modernised its northern nuclear submarine fleet and expanded their military presence on the nearby Franz Josef Land archipelago,” says Ryggvik.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2020, 02:58:34 PM
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article-split/33/18/8069/348406/Severe-Cold-Winter-in-North-America-Linked-to
Severe Cold Winter in North America Linked to Bering Sea Ice Loss
Quote
Abstract
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades. Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice. Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 27, 2020, 08:03:21 PM
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.


Forgot to say thanks for posting the Greenland Sea graphs.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on August 28, 2020, 02:30:48 PM
What's new in the Arctic ? The Tall Ship Sedov.

Can we track it?

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2020/08/hundred-years-old-tall-ship-sedov-embarks-historic-arctic-voyage#:~:text=Never%20before%20has%20a%20sailing,seas%20since%201st%20November%202019.
Hundred years old tall ship "Sedov" embarks on historic Arctic voyage

The ship will be the first of its kind that sails across the Northern Sea Route
Quote
It will be a voyage quite out of the ordinary for the crew that on the 18th August sets out from Vladivostok with course for the North. Never before has a sailing ship of this proportion made it across the Arctic route that connects the Asian and European parts of Russia.

The sailing on the Northern Sea Route follows a grand voyage that has taken the “Sedov” more than 25 thousand nautical miles across world seas since 1st November 2019.

“Following a detailed study of possible alternatives for the bark’s continued sailing, we consider it relevant to propose that the “Sedov” completes its expedition with a voyage across the Northern Sea Route from the east to west,” leader of Russia’s Fisheries Agency Ilya Shestyakov said in late July.

“We believe that such a voyage will have a great symbolic and practical effect,” Shestyakov underlined.

The ship is expected to reach reach its home port of Kaliningrad on 15th November this year. On its Arctic expedition, the vessel is due to visit the ports of Pevek, Sabetta and Murmansk. It is also expected to make a halt in the archipelago of Novaya Zemlya.

Careful safety preparations have been made both for the ship and its crew. The ship’s route across the Arctic will proceed in ice-free waters and assistance from special crafts vessels will be available if needed, the Fishery Agency informs.

Until year 2017, the “Sedov” was based in Murmansk and the ship has made several voyages in Arctic waters. But is has never made it across the whole Northern Sea Route. The ship is today operated by the federal Fishery Agency.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 28, 2020, 02:58:44 PM
Can we track it?

From time to time perhaps?

https://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UELO

or if somebody here's feeling flush:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:351018/mmsi:273510000/imo:7946356/vessel:SEDOV
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on August 29, 2020, 07:32:46 PM
"Changes are occurring so rapidly during the summer months that sea ice is likely to disappear faster than most climate models have ever predicted. We must continue to closely monitor temperature changes and incorporate the right climate processes into these models," says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.

https://www.science.ku.dk/english/press/news/2020/new-study-warns-we-have-underestimated-the-pace-at-which-the-arctic-is-melting/?fbclid=IwAR1G4p-Rq3hiZWPOWOQORLr_qOpwOq5wPo9BXhlNAZNo-sAgHXv0h_DV9mU
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 02, 2020, 10:11:16 PM
Bering Sea Ice Extent Is At Most Reduced State In At Least Last 5,500 Years
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-bering-sea-ice-extent-state.html

A newly published paper in the journal Science Advances describes how a peat core from St. Matthew Island is providing a look back in time. By analyzing the chemical composition of the core, which includes plant remains from 5,500 years ago to the present, scientists can estimate how sea ice in the region has changed during that time period.

"It's a small island in the middle of the Bering Sea, and it's essentially been recording what's happening in the ocean and atmosphere around it," said lead author Miriam Jones, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey. Jones worked as a faculty researcher at the University of Alaska Fairbanks when the project began in 2012.

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/36/eaaz9588/F1.large.jpg)

The ancient sea ice record comes in the form of changes in the relative amounts of two isotopes of the element oxygen— oxygen-16 and oxygen-18. The ratio of those two isotopes changes depending on patterns in the atmosphere and ocean, reflecting the different signatures that precipitation has around the globe. More oxygen-18 makes for an isotopically "heavier" precipitation, more oxygen-16 makes precipitation "lighter."

By analyzing data from a model that tracks atmospheric movement using the isotopic signature of precipitation, the authors found that heavier precipitation originated from the North Pacific, while lighter precipitation originated from the Arctic.

A "heavy" ratio signals a seasonal pattern that causes the amount of sea ice to decrease. A "light" ratio indicates a season with more sea ice. That connection has been confirmed though sea ice satellite data collected since 1979, and to a smaller extent, through the presence of some microorganisms in previous core samples.

"What we've seen most recently is unprecedented in the last 5,500 years," said Matthew Wooller, director of the Alaska Stable Isotope Facility and a contributor to the paper. "We haven't seen anything like this in terms of sea ice in the Bering Sea."

Jones said the long-term findings also affirm that reductions in Bering Sea ice are due to more than recent higher temperatures associated with global warming. Atmospheric and ocean currents, which are also affected by climate change, play a larger role in the presence of sea ice.

"There's a lot more going on than simply warming temperatures," Jones said. "We're seeing a shift in circulation patterns both in the ocean and the atmosphere."

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/36/eaaz9588/F4.large.jpg)

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/36/eaaz9588/F5.large.jpg)

M.C. Jones el al., "High sensitivity of Bering Sea winter sea ice to winter insolation and carbon dioxide over the last 5500 years," Science Advances (2020).
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eaaz9588

... The substantial rate of anthropogenic CO2 inputs into the atmosphere over industrialization suggests that a loss in Bering Sea sea ice extent is accelerating or is already committed to complete sea ice loss as a result of delayed response to anthropogenic forcing. Low winter sea ice anomalies in CE 2018 and CE 2019 indicate future conditions that favor an ice-free Bering Sea. Widespread effects of Bering Sea winter sea ice loss are expected to occur. Ecosystem responses to low sea ice in CE 2018 included altered food webs that led to sea bird die-offs and may represent a harbinger of future low sea ice extent.

Further intensification of observed North Pacific influence in the Bering Sea leading to a reduction in sea ice can further affect heat transport to the Arctic Ocean basin. Although the Bering Strait throughflow may be relatively small (<1 Sv; 1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1), it can have a disproportionate influence on heatflux into the Arctic Ocean basin, and recent increases have been linked to weakening northerly winds (32), signifying enhanced winds originating from the North Pacific could amplify Arctic Ocean sea ice decline via increasing winds from the south.

Simultaneously, the increased frequency and duration of winter cyclones in the Arctic have led to the large reductions in freezing degree days in Arctic Ocean winters (33, 34). A loss of sea ice can also increase coastal erosion and increase land temperatures that result in permafrost thaw (35), further amplifying warming (36).
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on September 02, 2020, 10:29:01 PM
This study links severely cold winters in North America to loss of sea ice in the Bering Sea.
The study also says that an ice-free Bering Sea in the future might not produce the same result.

Reading the previous post in conjunction with this study makes this writer wonder if the future may have already arrived.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8069/348406/Severe-Cold-Winter-in-North-America-Linked-to
Quote
Abstract
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades.

Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice.

Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.[/i]
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: ArcticMelt2 on September 03, 2020, 08:52:20 PM
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/copernicus-reveals-summer-2020s-arctic-wildfires-set-new-emission-records

(https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/sites/default/files/inline-images/image1.png)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on September 07, 2020, 03:20:37 PM
Permafrost at Svalbard has entered the era of megamelt, and together with Russia’s Arctic coast, no other places on the earth warms faster. Also the sea ice in the surrounding Arctic Ocean experiences melting at a rate much faster than previous climate models predicted.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/climate-crisis/2020/09/svalbard-experienced-hottest-summer-record?fbclid=IwAR1cM0t8lAGeuR5lW3FuTDZJkhA63kYVkNJBCYk9nYhgZOJIzf-lOiz79Zk
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: binntho on September 14, 2020, 11:25:37 AM
Climate change: Warmth shatters section of Greenland ice shelf (https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-54127279)

The "Spalte" tongue of the Seventyninefjord (Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden) glacier has disintegrated:

Quote
Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden is roughly 80km long by 20km wide and is the floating front end of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream - where it flows off the land into the ocean to become buoyant.

At its leading edge, the 79N glacier splits in two, with a minor offshoot turning directly north. It's this offshoot, or tributary, called Spalte Glacier, that has now disintegrated.

Some of us have a strange fixation (or aversion) to tides, so perhaps this article about the tidal movement of the 79N glacier is of some interest, Tidal movement of Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden glacier, northeast Greenland: observations and modelling (https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/67FAECC588A655CBD28201265A5DA8AC/S0260305500266676a.pdf/tidal_movement_of_nioghalvfjerdsfjorden_glacier_northeast_greenland_observations_and_modelling.pdf)

The tidal at the mouth of the fjord, at the comically named "Syge Moster" island (i.e. "Sick mothers sister's island"), was measured as being between 0.5 and 1 m each way.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 14, 2020, 10:13:40 PM
Arctic Transitioning to a New Climate State
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-arctic-transitioning-climate-state.html

New research by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) finds that the Arctic has now warmed so significantly that its year-to-year variability is moving outside the bounds of any past fluctuations, signaling the transition to a "new Arctic" climate regime.

"The rate of change is remarkable," said NCAR scientist Laura Landrum, the lead author of the study. "It's a period of such rapid change that observations of past weather patterns no longer show what you can expect next year. The Arctic is already entering a completely different climate than just a few decades ago."

In the new study, Landrum and her co-author, NCAR scientist Marika Holland, find that Arctic sea ice has melted so significantly in recent decades that even an unusually cold year will no longer have the amount of summer sea ice that existed as recently as the mid-20th century. Autumn and winter air temperatures will also warm enough to enter a statistically distinct climate by the middle of this century, followed by a seasonal change in precipitation that will result in additional months in which rain will fall instead of snow.

... Landrum and Holland applied statistical techniques to determine when climatic changes exceeded the bounds of natural variability. For this last question, they identified a different climate as emerging when the 10-year average was at least two standard deviations away from the average of the climate in the decade 1950-59.

In other words, if the sea ice extent changed so much that the average in, say, the 1990s was lower in 97.7% of all cases than the sea ice extent for any year in the 1950s, then the 1990s were defined as a new climate.

When they applied these techniques to sea ice extent, they found that the Arctic has already entered a new climate. Each of the five models showed sea ice retreating so dramatically that a new climate for sea ice had emerged in the late 20th and early 21st centuries.

Looking forward, they also found that the Arctic may start to experience largely ice-free conditions in the next several decades. Several of the models indicated that the Arctic could become mostly ice free for 3-10 months annually by the end of the century, based on a scenario of high greenhouse gas emissions.

They found that the air temperatures over the ocean will enter a new climate during the first half or middle of this century, with air temperatures over land warming substantially later in the century.

The seasonal cycle of precipitation will change dramatically by the middle of the century. If emissions persist at a high level, most continental regions will experience an increase in the rainy season of 20-60 days by mid-century and 60-90 days by the end of the century. In some Arctic regions, rain may occur any month of the year by century's end.

Extremes become routine in an emerging new Arctic, Nature Climate Change (2020).
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0892-z
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: glennbuck on September 16, 2020, 01:45:30 PM
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/14/climate/arctic-changing-climate.html

The effects of global warming in the Arctic are so severe that the region is shifting to a different climate, one characterized less by ice and snow and more by open water and rain, scientists said Monday.

Already, they said, sea ice in the Arctic has declined so much that even an extremely cold year would not result in as much ice as was typical decades ago. Two other characteristics of the region’s climate, seasonal air temperatures and the number of days of rain instead of snow, are shifting in the same way, the researchers said.

The Arctic is among the parts of the world most influenced by climate change, with sharply rising temperatures, thawing permafrost and other effects in addition to shrinking sea ice. The study, by Laura Landrum and Marika M. Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo., is an effort to put what is occurring in the region in context.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on September 17, 2020, 11:30:22 AM
A new route through the Arctic?
Why not directly to the North Pole?

Quote
The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
Mia M.Bennett, Scott R.Stephenson, KangYang, Michael T.Bravo, Bert De Jonghe

Highlights
• A seasonal ice-free shipping route via the North Pole may open by mid-century.

• The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is shorter and deeper than the Northern Sea Route.

• Development options include transshipment ports in the Bering and Fram Straits.

• The TSR's environmental and socioeconomic impacts could be locally significant.

• Despite rapid climate change, there is still time to prepare for the TSR's opening.

Quote
Abstract

With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper examines: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR's opening; (ii) scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, addressing the various transportation systems that could evolve; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulations and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of transpolar shipping for local and Indigenous residents of communities along the TSR's entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X2030453X?via%3Dihub (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308597X2030453X?via%3Dihub)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on September 17, 2020, 07:53:33 PM
    Nice catch Juan.
    Some pithy quotes of particular interest to ASIF. 
     
     SIT = Sea Ice Thickness
    "Declines in SIT are particularly relevant for transpolar shipping, as the measure is a chief determinant of the type of polar class (PC) vessel required in ice-covered waters.  Like sea ice  extent, SIT has been declining: at the North Pole, while average SIT was ~4 m between 1958–1976, by 2011–2017, it dropped to <1 m. "

        CAO = Central Arctic Ocean
       "Commercial shipping will  require robust forecasts meeting more stringent criteria, such  as  the IPCC’s definition of “nearly ice-free conditions” when sea ice extent dips below 1 million km2 for at least five consecutive years, or seasonal benchmarks of 90 days or more of operational accessibility in the CAO.  In the near term, making such forecasts may prove challenging since sea ice variability is projected to grow substantially even as its total amount declines.  Nevertheless, in the  long term – i.e. by mid-century and more certainly by 2100 – ice-free summers are ex-pected to occur regularly, promising greater predictability for shipping lines."

      "The CAO may be ice-free in summer as soon as the 2040s, setting in motion the seasonal opening of the TSR.  Even if this sea change does not immediately reconfigure global shipping networks, already perceptible increases in the region’s economic activity suggest that preparations are in order."

     "...[T]he environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the TSR will be more acute at local rather than regional or global scales. While the shipping route promises new avenues for economic development, it may jeopardize the health of coastal ecosystems and vitality of subsistence activities.  Although the CAO is uninhabited, thousands of people live in communities along the Bering Strait, in Svalbard, and in northeast Ice-land where transshipment ports may be constructed and where large vessels could one day dock.  Particularly along the Bering Strait, com-mercial shipping threatens subsistence whaling, sealing, and fishing.  Empowering Indigenous and local communities to exercise stakeholder rights and participate in maritime policy forums for Arctic shipping while minimizing the industry’s negative impacts – and, if possible, finding a  way  that  development of the TSR could provide tangible benefits – is crucial."

     "Yet regardless of the ultimate extent of the TSR’s commercialization, the moment at which the Arctic becomes ice-free will mark a profound turning point in human and environmental history.  As warming and melting accelerate, regions like the Arctic that “had for centuries dramatized the fragility of human life have, in a few short decades, been refigured as representing the earth’s profound vulnerability to collective human agency”.  The increasing accessibility of the TSR epitomizes the  ambivalence of changes to the Arctic in the Anthropocene.  While the opening of a truly trans-Arctic shipping route is a symbol of mankind’s greater freedom of navigation, it also presents a stark reminder of the social and environ-mental costs of this freedom, the conditions that have given rise to it, and the sudden transience of a long-frozen region."
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on September 17, 2020, 07:55:37 PM
     Which led to this:  J.R. Mioduszewski, S. Vavrus, M. Wang, M. Holland, L. Landrum, Past and future interannual variability in Arctic sea ice in coupled climate models, Cryosphere 13 (2019) 113–124, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019 (https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-113-2019)

     Abstract (bolding added and format edited slightly for clarity)

    "The diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied, but previous research has mostly focused on time-mean changes in sea ice rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that future interannual Arctic sea ice area variability will increase by utilizing 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) for the 1920–2100 period and augment this with simulations from 12 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).

     Both CESM-LE and CMIP5 models project that ice area variability will indeed grow substantially but not monotonically in every month. There is also a strong seasonal dependence in the magnitude and timing of future variability increases that is robust among CESM ensemble members.

     The variability generally correlates with the average ice retreat rate, before there is an eventual disappearance in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal in summer and autumn by late century. The peak in variability correlates best with the total area of ice between 0.2 and 0.6 m monthly thickness, indicating that substantial future thinning of the ice pack is required before variability maximizes. Within this range, the most favorable thickness for high areal variability depends on the season, especially whether ice growth or ice retreat processes dominate.

     Our findings suggest that thermodynamic melting (top, bottom, lateral) and growth (frazil, congelation) processes are more important than dynamical mechanisms, namely ice export and ridging, in controlling ice area variability."

     Graphic below is mean ice area from CESM model ensemble.  Of course this paper was written way back in 2018  8).  I think the Wipneus linear Volume trend projection for zero September minimum ASI by 2032 is a better predictor than the climate models which have been routinely late in their Arctic sea ice decline estimates.  No volume = no area.  But that's for another thread!
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Juan C. García on September 17, 2020, 08:40:03 PM
    Nice catch Juan.
The truth is that I read it first in NSIDC Analysis. I have to acknowledge them.

Quote
A recent paper by an international group led by political geographer Mia Bennett at the University of Hong Kong discusses the potential impacts of the near-future emergence of a transpolar shipping route as sea ice retreat continues to open a very wide shipping lane along the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean (as it has this year). The route would pass over the North Pole as a way of avoiding an extensive Russian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and still-contended continental shelf claim.

This emerging transpolar route reflects a fundamentally changed Arctic environment. Another recent paper by researchers Laura Landrum and Marika Holland at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the Arctic has indeed entered into a “new Arctic climate” state. This new climate is one characterized by warmer temperatures, more open water, less sea ice, more rain, and less snow. In the Arctic, weather that used to be considered extreme is becoming the norm. The summer of 2020 is clearly representative of this new Arctic.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/suddenly-in-second-place/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/suddenly-in-second-place/)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on September 18, 2020, 07:32:10 AM
Wildfires in Arctic Circle release record amounts of greenhouse gases - BBC News
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjTMUIVxay4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjTMUIVxay4)
5 minute video, gives a ground level view of Siberia and some of the folks who live there.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 18, 2020, 08:37:57 AM
Sea ice Triggered the Little Ice Age, Finds a New Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-sea-ice-triggered-age.html

(https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/2020/1-seaicetrigge.jpg)
The map shows Greenland and adjacent ocean currents. Colored circles show where some of the sediment cores used in the study were obtained from the seafloor. The small historical map from the beginning of the 20th century shows the distribution of Storis, or sea ice from the Arctic Ocean, which flows down the east coast of Greenland. The graphs show the reconstructed time series of changes in the occurrence of sea ice and polar waters in the past. The colors of the curves correspond to the locations on the map. The blue shading represents the period of increased sea ice in the 1300s.

A new study finds a trigger for the Little Ice Age that cooled Europe from the 1300s through mid-1800s, and supports surprising model results suggesting that under the right conditions sudden climate changes can occur spontaneously, without external forcing.

The study, published in Science Advances, reports a comprehensive reconstruction of sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean through the Fram Strait, by Greenland, and into the North Atlantic Ocean over the last 1400 years. The reconstruction suggests that the Little Ice Age—which was not a true ice age but a regional cooling centered on Europe—was triggered by an exceptionally large outflow of sea ice from the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic in the 1300s.

While previous experiments using numerical climate models showed that increased sea ice was necessary to explain long-lasting climate anomalies like the Little Ice Age, physical evidence was missing. This study digs into the geological record for confirmation of model results.

Researchers pulled together records from marine sediment cores drilled from the ocean floor from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic to get a detailed look at sea ice throughout the region over the last 1400 years. ...  The cores were detailed enough to detect abrupt (decadal scale) changes in sea ice and ocean conditions over time.

The records indicate an abrupt increase in Arctic sea ice exported to the North Atlantic starting around 1300, peaking in midcentury, and ending abruptly in the late 1300s.

... Climate models called "control models" are run to understand how the climate system works through time without being influenced by outside forces like volcanic activity or greenhouse gas emissions. A set of recent control model experiments included results that portrayed sudden cold events that lasted several decades. The model results seemed too extreme to be realistic—so-called Ugly Duckling simulations—and researchers were concerned that they were showing problems with the models.

Miles' study found that there may be nothing wrong with those models at all.

"We actually find that number one, we do have physical, geological evidence that these several decade-long cold sea ice excursions in the same region can, in fact do, occur," he said. In the case of the Little Ice Age, "what we reconstructed in space and time was strikingly similar to the development in an Ugly Duckling model simulation, in which a spontaneous cold event lasted about a century. It involved unusual winds, sea ice export, and a lot more ice east of Greenland, just as we found in here." The provocative results show that external forcing from volcanoes or other causes may not be necessary for large swings in climate to occur. Miles continued, "These results strongly suggest...that these things can occur out of the blue due to internal variability in the climate system."

The marine cores also show a sustained, far-flung pulse of sea ice near the Norse colonies on Greenland coincident with their disappearance in the 15th century. A debate has raged over why the colonies vanished, usually agreeing only that a cooling climate pushed hard on their resilience. Miles and his colleagues would like to factor in the oceanic changes nearby: very large amounts of sea ice and cold polar waters, year after year for nearly a century.

"This massive belt of ice that comes streaming out of the Arctic—in the past and even today—goes all the way around Cape Farewell to around where these colonies were," Miles said. He would like to look more closely into oceanic conditions along with researchers who study the social sciences in relation to climate.

Martin W. Miles et al, Evidence for extreme export of Arctic sea ice leading the abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/38/eaba4320
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Hefaistos on September 18, 2020, 11:22:39 AM
Thanks Vox, very interesting!

Wikipedia lists the following possible causes of LIA:
Scientists have tentatively identified seven possible causes of the Little Ice Age: orbital cycles; decreased solar activity /the Maunder Minimum/; increased volcanic activity; altered ocean current flows;[82] fluctuations in the human population in different parts of the world causing reforestation, or deforestation; and the inherent variability of global climate.

What these model simulations show, is that the cause could actually have been the last one, natural variability. Supposedly the other things that are 100% known to have happened in the relevant time-frame were not excluded from the runs, such as the bottomed out solar activity and the volcanism?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age#Possible_causes
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: gerontocrat on September 18, 2020, 05:01:32 PM
I was listening to a woman on BBC Radio 4 on how she deals with depression.

One escape route for her is to chill out watching the 24/7 Webcam from The Walrus Islands State Game Sanctuary (WISGS) - "one of the largest gathering places in the world for Pacific Walruses. The most popular haul-out in the WISGS is Round Island, where the walrus cam is located on Main Beach. Please enjoy watching up to 15,000 of these massive marine mammals with Explore's live video feed from walrus cam." https://www.alaskacenters.gov/explore/attractions/multimedia/webcams/round-island-walrus

https://youtu.be/OjA36WMaGq4
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Hefaistos on September 19, 2020, 10:15:42 AM
I was listening to a woman on BBC Radio 4 on how she deals with depression.


If she also felt the smell from those creatures, she would surely have a depressive relapse.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 22, 2020, 11:12:51 PM
Russia's New Icebreaker, The World's Largest, Is Heading To The Arctic For The First Time
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36637/russias-new-icebreaker-the-worlds-largest-is-heading-to-the-arctic-for-the-first-time

(https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F1600790874985-proj22220.jpg)

Arktika, the first of Russia's new nuclear-powered Project 22220 icebreakers, the largest and most powerful such ship in the world at present, has set sail for its future homeport in Murmansk with plans to plow through ice in the Arctic before it arrives there. However, only two of the ship's three engines are presently working, raising questions about just how close it really is to fully entering operational service.

Rosatom says that Arktika will sail in the Arctic north of Franz Josef Land, a Russian archipelago in the Arctic Ocean, and test out its ability to break through ice before turning south and heading to Murmansk. The entire trip will take approximately two weeks. Franz Josef Land notably includes Alexandra Land, an island that is home to Russia's northernmost military outpost, which has seen significant expansion this year.

https://youtu.be/bKaVhXn49xY

Russia is the only country, at present, to operate nuclear-powered icebreakers and Project 22220s are powered by two RITM-200 pressurized water reactors, each rated at 175 megawatts, which supply electricity to three electric motors, each driving a single propeller. It is expected to be able to break through ice up to seven feet thick (2 meters).

https://youtu.be/ipeFgaPMP8Q

Arktika and her future sister ships certainly do reflect the Russian government's significant Arctic ambitions and its position as the largest single operator of icebreakers in the world. Increasing geopolitical competition in the far north, driven in part by global climate change making it easier to access the region and its lucrative natural resources, from oil to fish, has shown a light on this disparity, particularly in the United States.

https://youtu.be/ghjVNOOU0jg

... This is not a particularly new issue. On Sept. 21, Dr Elizabeth Buchanan a lecturer on strategic studies at the Australian Defense College and a fellow at the The Modern War Institute at the United States Military Academy, Tweeted a portion of a 1972 document found in the CIA Records Search Tool (CREST) archives discussing the implications of America's small icebreaking fleets and how embarrassing it would be if one of those ships were to break down and get stuck in thick ice, requiring rescue from a Soviet icebreaker.

https://mobile.twitter.com/BuchananLiz/status/1307932348751593472
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 24, 2020, 06:46:20 PM
Island-building in Southeast Asia Created Earth's Northern Ice Sheets
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-island-building-southeast-asia-earth-northern.html

The Greenland ice sheet owes its existence to the growth of an arc of islands in Southeast Asia—stretching from Sumatra to New Guinea—over the last 15 million years, a new study claims.

According to an analysis by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, UC Santa Barbara and a research institute in Toulouse, France, as the Australian continent pushed these volcanic islands out of the ocean, the rocks were exposed to rain mixed with carbon dioxide, which is acidic. Minerals within the rocks dissolved and washed with the carbon into the ocean, consuming enough carbon dioxide to cool the planet and allow for large ice sheets to form over North America and Northern Europe.

"You have the continental crust of Australia bulldozing into these volcanic islands, giving you really high mountains just south of the equator," said Nicholas Swanson-Hysell, associate professor of earth and planetary science at UC Berkeley and senior author of the study. "So, you have this big increase of land area that is quite steep, in a region where it's warm and wet and a lot of rock types that have the ability to naturally sequester carbon."

Starting about 15 million years ago, this tropical mountain-building drew down carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, decreasing the strength of the greenhouse effect and cooling the planet. By about 3 million years ago, Earth's temperature was cool enough to allow snow and ice to remain through the summer and grow into huge ice sheets over the Northern Hemisphere, like that covering Greenland today.

Once Northern Hemisphere ice sheets grew, other climate dynamics led to a cycle of glacial maxima and minima every 40,000 to 100,000 years. At the most recent glacial maximum, about 15,000 years ago, massive ice sheets covered most of Canada, the northern portions of the U.S., as well as Scandinavia and much of the British Isles.

"If it wasn't for the carbon sequestration that's happening in the Southeast Asian islands, we wouldn't have ended up with the climate that includes a Greenland ice sheet and these glacial and interglacial cycles," ... "We wouldn't have crossed this atmospheric CO2 threshold to initiate Northern Hemisphere ice sheets."

(https://scx1.b-cdn.net/csz/news/800/2020/1-islandbuildi.jpg)

Based on their model, chemical weathering in the Southeast Asian islands alone diminished CO2 levels from more than 500 parts per million (ppm) 15 million years ago to approximately 400 ppm 5 million years ago and, finally, to pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. Fossil fuel-burning has now raised the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to 411 ppm—"A process that took millions of years we have reversed in 100 years."

... While the threshold for Arctic glaciation is estimated to be about 280 ppm of carbon dioxide, the threshold for ice sheet formation at the South Pole is much higher: about 750 ppm. That's why the Antarctic ice sheets began forming much earlier, about 34 million years ago, than those in the Arctic. ...

Yuem Park el al., "Emergence of the Southeast Asian islands as a driver for Neogene cooling," PNAS (2020)
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/23/2011033117
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on September 24, 2020, 07:03:09 PM
So if we manage to get CO2e past 750 ppm Antarctica melts to the bedrock and the seas rise 70 meters or more?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Tor Bejnar on September 24, 2020, 09:17:19 PM
Gosh, Tom, that happens and I will have to move (or grow gills). (My house is about 50 meters above the current sea level.)

(But only if reincarnation is a thing will I have to worry about it.  Ah, the advantages of not being Methuselah.)
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on September 24, 2020, 09:35:59 PM
So if we manage to get CO2e past 750 ppm Antarctica melts to the bedrock and the seas rise 70 meters or more?
     70 meters will take a long while, but if 3.3 meters floats your boat that can happen at just  650ppm held steady long enough according to a study published yesterday.
 
      Study out yesterday found that eventually West Antarctic Ice Sheet is drinkable at 2.36C above preindustrial.  IPPC 2014 CO2 and Temp tables for RCP8.5 (closest analog to path we are currently on) put 2.36C at about 650 ppm CO2.  Quick skim of article did not find any timeline should that occur, and they take pain to say their report is NOT a projection or forecast.  Based on Deconto and Pollard 2016 simulation, my guess is that to reach that new equilibrium would take 100 years or more.  Then again, who's to say we would stop at 650ppm CO2 (even less likely for 650 ppm CO2e)?
   
     (Speaking of Dec and Poll 2016, the new paper does NOT account for their proposed ice cliff instability, which apparently is still being debated for validity.  If it does apply, then it seems the new study's melt rates would be underestimates by leaving it out.  On the other hand, the new paper mentions both negative and postive feedbacks that could affect this new disaster scenario.) 

     See animated simulation posted yesterday by Potsdam Institute: 
The Hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Sep 23, 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOQK1BUuseY

Journal article - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Julius Garbe, Torsten Albrecht, Anders Levermann, Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann
Nature volume 585, pages538–544(2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5)
    New (to me) term - "Creep instability"   Good fit for the times.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: be cause on September 24, 2020, 09:36:34 PM
wow .. that is funny Tor .. the last post I just read included the line ..
  ''If NDE is a guide we've picked these situations for a purpose. It's also not our first time, or our last.''
 .. a little wisdom from vox-mundi to me back on 02.02.2020 .. b.c.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Glen Koehler on September 25, 2020, 09:58:54 PM
Journal article - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Julius Garbe, Torsten Albrecht, Anders Levermann, Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann
Nature volume 585, pages538–544(2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5)
    New (to me) term - "Creep instability"   Good fit for the times.

"The Graduate" updated for 2020:
Mr. McGuire:  I want to say one two words to you. Just one two words.

Benjamin:  Yes, sir.

Mr. McGuire:  Are you listening?

Benjamin:  Yes, I am.

Mr. McGuire: Plastics.  Creep Instability.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on September 28, 2020, 03:54:14 PM
Phytoplankton found to begin growing in Baffin Bay as early as February
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-phytoplankton-baffin-bay-early-february.html

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/39/eabc2678/F2.large.jpg)
Annual cycles of phytoplankton biomass

A small international team of researchers has found that phytoplankton resumes growing in Baffin Bay as early as February.

For many years there has been a consensus among marine biologists: phytoplankton ceases growing during the early winter in the Arctic Ocean when ice forms and does not resume growing until the ice melts in the spring. Then when the ice does finally melt, the phytoplankton are thought to explode with growth. In this new effort, the researchers have found that such thinking has been wrong. Phytoplankton can start growing even before the ice above it begins to melt.

... This observation suggests that the explosive growth seen when the ice finally melts is not as explosive as has been thought—the phytoplankton has already been growing for months. The group describes the results in their paper published in the journal Science Advances.

(https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/advances/6/39/eabc2678/F3.large.jpg)
Environmental constraints of Arctic phytoplankton throughout the year.

Achim Randelhoff et al. Arctic mid-winter phytoplankton growth revealed by autonomous profilers, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/39/eabc2678
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on October 02, 2020, 01:00:00 AM
The Navy Is Building A Network Of Drone Submarines And Sensor Buoys In The Arctic
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36821/the-navy-is-building-a-network-of-drone-submarines-and-sensor-buoys-in-the-arctic

The U.S. Navy has awarded the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution a contract worth more than $12 million to develop unmanned undersea vehicles and buoys, along with a networked communications and data sharing infrastructure to link them all together. The project is ostensibly focused on developing a overall system to support enhanced monitoring of environmental changes in the Arctic for scientific purposes. However, it's not hard to see how this work could be at least a stepping stone to the creation of a wide-area persistent underwater surveillance system in this increasingly strategic region. 

The Pentagon announced the award of the contract in a daily notice on Sept. 29, 2020. The Office of Naval Research (ONR) is managing what is officially called the Arctic Mobile Observing System (AMOS), which is also described as an "Innovative Naval Prototype" effort.

ONR envisions the AMOS prototype as consisting of various kinds of unmanned undersea vehicles (UUV), including fully-autonomous types, along with fixed sensors. All of this would be tied together through a series of communications and data sharing nodes, suspended underwater underneath buoys installed on the surface of the ice. "AMOS will be designed to persist/endure for 12 months, have a sensing footprint goal of 100 km [approximately 62 miles] from the central node and have 2-way Arctic communications (vehicle to vehicle, vehicle to node and node to shore)," according to an official project website.

(https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F1601484251200-amos.jpg)
https://www.onr.navy.mil/en/Science-Technology/Departments/Code-32/all-programs/arctic-global-prediction/AMOS-DRI

The primarily publicly-stated goal of the AMOS program, which began in 2018, is provide a means of readily monitoring and assessing what is going on underneath the ice in the Arctic across broad areas. Receding ice and other environmental changes in the region as a result of global climate change has led to increased U.S. military activities in the region and prompted a new demand to better understand what is going on above and below the surface. Just being able to predict when and where significant amounts of ice will develop, or recede, which can be influenced by underwater conditions, such as water temperature, could have significant impacts on naval operations in the far north.

(https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F1601485185260-sat.jpg)

It's also worth noting that AMOS is the latest in a series of research efforts aimed at addressing these challenges that ONR conducted since 2011. The proposed overall architecture for this new prototype system is, in fact, very similar to the one developed for the Stratified Ocean Dynamics in the Arctic (SODA) experiment in the Beaufort Sea, part of the Arctic Ocean, which concluded last year.

(https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F1601485010264-soda-1.jpg)
https://www.onr.navy.mil/Science-Technology/Departments/Code-32/all-programs/arctic-global-prediction/SODA-DRI

ONR has indicated in the past that there are a number of "leap ahead technological goals" that will be necessary to achieve first in order for the system to work as intended.

(https://www.thedrive.com/content-b/message-editor%2F1601485023193-soda-2.jpg)

These technological milestones include the development of UUVs and buoys that can withstand the extremely cold conditions in the region for extended periods of time. There is also a requirement for an "under-ice acoustic navigation system" to make up for the fact that UUVs operating deep under the ice will find it difficult, if not impossible to utilize GPS. Satellite coverage in the Arctic is limited, in general, which also limits access to satellite navigation and communications and data sharing networks.

"You can go out there and you can put your sensors in the ice, but a lot of times they’ll fail," Harper added. "And they’ll fail because they’ll get crushed in the ice or tipped over or toppled by changing ice conditions. And so the ability to deploy a buoy that is robust enough to survive the sea ice is one of the technological hurdles to doing this."

A system that networks together a fleet of UUVs, together with an array of fixed sensor and communication nodes for the purposes of monitoring activity underwater would also seem readily adaptable to other roles, such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance in Arctic waters, especially with regards to foreign submarine operations. Just being able to provide U.S. military commanders and American intelligence agencies with additional basic situational awareness of what's happening under the ice, as well as above it, could be a major boon.

... “We have significant domain awareness challenges, and that really begins in the high latitudes,” retired Admiral Paul Zukunft, who was previously the Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, told a gathering at the 2020 Defense News Conference earlier in September. “Things start to get pretty dark once you get up higher than 72 degrees north.”

"We sent a national security cutter to patrol that region in a relatively ice-free portion of the season," he continued. "And we stumbled upon a joint exercise between Russia and China. Our intelligence community did not have awareness that this was going on. So we were the originators of this information and otherwise we would not have known. We need to continue to invest in domain awareness."

http://www.hisutton.com/Ru_Arctic.html

... Russia is reportedly working on various projects in this vein in the Arctic, including potential underwater facilities and nuclear reactors to power them, that are again ostensibly for research purposes, but could easily have military applications. The Chinese have also established underwater monitoring stations, officially for scientific research, in the Pacific that could also be used to collect information about the goings and comings of foreign submarines and other vessels.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: vox_mundi on October 04, 2020, 04:46:22 PM
New Russian Nuclear Powered Icebreaker Reaches the North Pole
https://www.mk.ru/social/2020/10/03/novyy-rossiyskiy-atomnyy-ledokol-dostig-severnogo-polyusa.html

Project 22220 Nuclear Icebreaker "Arktika" reached the North Pole on October 3 at 18:00 Moscow time. The icebreaker built at the Baltic Shipyard made a two-week transit from St. Petersburg to Murmansk, and then to the North Pole. According to Baltic Shipyard press release, after returning to Murmansk, the ship will be handed over to it's customer - Rosatom.

... Project 22220 Icebreakers will be able to conduct convoys of ships in the Arctic, including ships carrying hydrocarbons from the fields of the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, and the shelf of the Kara Sea, to the Asia-Pacific region.
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: FredBear on October 12, 2020, 09:49:10 PM
Maybe rather "New out of the Arctic" - Polarstern:-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54515518
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: Positive retroaction on October 15, 2020, 12:20:21 PM
Have you seen the risk on SSW in the next weeks? Is that risk serious?
Title: Re: What's new in the Arctic ?
Post by: dnem on October 16, 2020, 11:30:23 PM
I don't think I've seen this new Jennifer Francis paper referenced on the ASIF:
https://www.woodwellclimate.org/why-has-no-new-record-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-occurred-since-september-2012/

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047
Abstract
One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 years ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.