Reports of very big methane releases all over the Arctic:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-gzzzkTMf-eM%2FUo3RAfG0asI%2FAAAAAAAAL-U%2Fc1QYDwr2tjQ%2Fs1600%2FNov-19-2013-inset.jpg&hash=541bc5296be17a6f3ee47a302c2f2c97)
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html (http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/11/high-methane-levels-all-over-arctic-ocean.html)
Methane destruction by OH radicals is temperature dependent.Does that mean methane breaks into CO2 faster or slower during winter?
Vast quantities of carbon are stored in shallow Arctic reservoirs, such as submarine and terrestrial permafrost. Submarine permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf started warming in the early Holocene, several thousand years ago. However, the present state of the permafrost in this region is uncertain.
Here, we present data on the temperature of submarine permafrost on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf using measurements collected from a sediment core, together with sonar-derived observations of bubble flux and measurements of seawater methane levels taken from the same region. The temperature of the sediment core ranged from −1.8 to 0 °C. Although the surface layer exhibited the lowest temperatures, it was entirely unfrozen, owing to significant concentrations of salt.
On the basis of the sonar data, we estimate that bubbles escaping the partially thawed permafrost inject 100–630 mg methane m−2 d−1 into the overlying water column. We further show that water-column methane levels had dropped significantly following the passage of two storms. We suggest that significant quantities of methane are escaping the East Siberian Shelf as a result of the degradation of submarine permafrost over thousands of years.
We suggest that bubbles and storms facilitate the flux of this methane to the overlying ocean and atmosphere, respectively.
Jim, since you like maps, here's a similar one, but with indications of GHG release as well as births and death, and with the added benefit of slightly creepy sound effects.I don't like much looking at this numbers globaly, it is depressing !
http://www.breathingearth.net/ (http://www.breathingearth.net/)
The pulsing beat of births in India is quite...impressive.
On the issue of the transformation of waste, has anyone said it better than:
Patti Smith - 25th Floor (full song) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKqpaWUFHdo#) ?
(She really gets into it at about the three minute mark.)
Whether one uses the August monthly average of the daily NSIDC Extent, or the NISDC monthly extent data for August, 2014 ranks 7th, not 6th.That's true, but we were 5th lowest just a fortnight later. Clearly, judging a year only by 1 day out of 365 is unscientific. According to the Yearly Average we are 4th.
OMSM,Those who post comments here are interested in accuracy as are you. Writers at newspapers are more interested in sensationalism thus 6th instead of 7th. If they had known to talk to Viddaloo their headline would have read 4th lowest.
I'm not trying to correct anyone, I'm just pointing out that Kinnard is for August. (I have said that this is a minor issue in the context of 1450 years of data)
Whether one uses the August monthly average of the daily NSIDC Extent, or the NISDC monthly extent data for August, 2014 ranks 7th, not 6th.That's true, but we were 5th lowest just a fortnight later. Clearly, judging a year only by 1 day out of 365 is unscientific. According to the Yearly Average we are 4th.
Large waves and hurricane-force winds are expected to be the highest impacts with waves in some areas topping 45 feet Friday night and into Saturday.
Waves this large can quickly turn deadly, tossing around ships sailing in the area.
Monster Storm to Pound Bering Sea (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/monster-storm-to-pound-bering/36927708)The effect on ice I suspect will be Inconsequential.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvortex.accuweather.com%2Fadc2004%2Fpub%2Fincludes%2Fcolumns%2Fnewsstory%2F2014%2F650x366_11060902_hd33.jpg&hash=bb45f67004bdeba3fd6d43a30e1aa2cd)QuoteLarge waves and hurricane-force winds are expected to be the highest impacts with waves in some areas topping 45 feet Friday night and into Saturday.
Waves this large can quickly turn deadly, tossing around ships sailing in the area.
Could perhaps throw some sea ice around?
I wonder if the FFIR could also help with giving us an idea how much heat is being trapped in the Arctic at any given point in time or how much heat is getting imported into the Arctic?
Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079)
Yes, strange politic, remember there is a share older behind ESA. We need it to correlate others datas but we can do without the daily news...I think.
The deep lows in this short series were 5,300 and 5,400 cubic km in 2011 and 2012, respectively. But then came the bounce back, with colder weather over the following two years resetting the minimum. [...]
"Now that Cryosat can deliver near real-time observations of sea-ice thickness that agree to within 1% of the climate-quality measurements, which are not rapid enough for operational purposes, Arctic nations will be able to make sure that any future maritime activities are done with safety and care."
Arctic sea ice volume holds up in 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-30399079)
The spacecraft observed 7,500 cu km of ice cover in October when the Arctic traditionally starts its post-summer freeze-up.
This was only slightly down on 2013 when 8,800 cu km were recorded
a conservative estimate for October Arctic ice volume uncertainty of +/- 1.35x103 km3
Recent studies of the impact of snow layer properties on CryoSat-2 freeboard retrieval conclude that radar backscatter from the snow layer may lead to a bias in sea ice freeboard if it is not included in the retrieval process (Ricker et al. 2014, Kwok et al. 2014). Current sea-ice thickness data products from CryoSat-2 are, therefore, based on the assumption that the impact of the snow layer on radar freeboard is constant from year to year and snow depth can be sufficiently approximated by long-term observation values.
With these assumptions, updated radar freeboard and sea-ice thickness maps of the CryoSat-2 data product from the Alfred Wegner Institute (Fig. 4.4) show an increase in average freeboard of 0.05 m in March 2014 compared to the two preceding years (2012: 0.16 m, 2013: 0.16 m, 2014: 0.21 m). This amounts to an increase of mean sea-ice thickness of 0.38 m (2012: 1.97 m, 2013: 1.97 m, 2014: 2.35 m). The mean values were calculated for an area in the central Arctic Ocean where the snow climatology is considered to be valid. Excluded are the ice-covered areas of the southern Barents Sea, Fram Strait, Baffin Bay and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The main increase of mean freeboard and thickness is observed in the multi-year sea ice zone north-west of Greenland, while first year sea ice freeboard and thickness values remained typical for the Arctic spring.
Fig. 4.4. Arctic sea ice freeboard (left) and thickness (right) maps for March retrieved from the ESA CryoSat-2 satellite for the period 2012-2014. The areas with the darkest shading, west and east of Greenland, the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and the Kara Sea, are outside the valid region for long-term snow observations. Freeboard is the height of the ice surface above the water level.
More volume in 2014 than 2013 per Cryosat2 which seems different from the ESA report. Above seems to agree to PIOMAS better than ESA report.Not quite. We already knew from the
«Between (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/15471) autumn 2010 and spring 2013, there was a 14% and 5% reduction in autumn and spring Arctic sea ice volume, respectively, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent.»Autumn 2010 to autumn 2012: 14% drop in sea ice volume.
«However (https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm14/meetingapp.cgi#Paper/15471), since then there has been a marked 41% and 9% recovery in autumn and spring sea ice volume, respectively, more than offsetting losses of the previous three years.»Autumn 2012 to autumn 2014: 41% increase in sea ice volume.
In view of recent increases in moisture being imported into the arctic, and apparent increases in snowfall, and the note Crandalls included, I get a subtle indication that the interpretation of cryosat-2 data may be biased high. I'm finding myself wondering how far their estimate of snowfall may be off. They as much as admit they are making an educated guess.
Warren, S. G., I. G. Rigor, N. Untersteiner, V. F. Radionov, N. N. Bryazgin,
Y. I. Aleksandrov, and R. Colony (1999), Snow depth on Arctic sea ice,
J. Climate, 12(6), 1814–1829.
From what I recall of past reading of Cryosat 2 papers they use an assumed average seasonal cycle of snow cover. Variations either side of that can affect the calculated freeboard.That I think I'll chase down. The date by itself suggests a problem considering how different the weather and ice cover is now as compared to 15 years ago.
Ah, yes, Laxon 2013, "CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume", states that they use a snow cover climatology from Warren 1999.
From what I recall of past reading of Cryosat 2 papers they use an assumed average seasonal cycle of snow cover. Variations either side of that can affect the calculated freeboard.That I think I'll chase down. The date by itself suggests a problem considering how different the weather and ice cover is now as compared to 15 years ago.
Ah, yes, Laxon 2013, "CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume", states that they use a snow cover climatology from Warren 1999.
When water is surrounded by ice packs, as has been common in the Arctic, areas of open water are small and there is little chance for wind to work up vigorous waves. In such calm conditions, ice forms in unbroken sheets called 'nilas'.
But now the Arctic has larger areas of open water, and more waves. "As soon as you introduce swell, you get an entirely different form of ice," says Jeremy Wilkinson of the Scottish Association for Marine Science in Oban, UK. Under these conditions, globs of ice crystals tossed about in the water combine to form first a soupy mixture called 'grease ice', and then 'pancakes' of thin ice a metre or two in diameter.
This can have all sorts of knock-on effects. Because the pancakes are round, for example, they have areas of open water between them when joined up, making the surface darker overall. This could have a warming effect as a result of less of the Sun's radiation being reflected. Water also slops up from these holes over the ice so that falling snow melts rather than settling, keeping the surface darker.
"This whole cycle is not in models of the Arctic or the Antarctic. It's one of these conundrums that people haven't looked into," says Wilkinson.
23 January 2015
Rapid ice loss in a remote Arctic ice cap has been detected by the Sentinel-1A and CryoSat satellites.
Located on Norway’s Nordaustlandet island in the Svalbard archipelago, parts of the Austfonna ice cap have thinned by more than 50 m since 2012 – about a sixth of the ice’s thickness.
Over the last two decades, ice loss from the southeast region of Austfonna has increased significantly, and ice thinning has spread over 50 km inland and is now within 10 km of the summit.
The ice cap’s outlet glacier is also flowing 25 times faster, from 150 m to 3.8 km per year – half a metre per hour.
In the study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a team led by scientists from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds in the UK combined observations from eight satellite missions, including Sentinel-1A and CryoSat, with results from regional climate models.
(...)
You read it first on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,416.msg42652.html#msg42652) but here is the news item by ESA:
Satellites catch Austfonna shedding ice (http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Satellites_catch_Austfonna_shedding_ice)Quote23 January 2015
Rapid ice loss in a remote Arctic ice cap has been detected by the Sentinel-1A and CryoSat satellites.
Located on Norway’s Nordaustlandet island in the Svalbard archipelago, parts of the Austfonna ice cap have thinned by more than 50 m since 2012 – about a sixth of the ice’s thickness.
Over the last two decades, ice loss from the southeast region of Austfonna has increased significantly, and ice thinning has spread over 50 km inland and is now within 10 km of the summit.
The ice cap’s outlet glacier is also flowing 25 times faster, from 150 m to 3.8 km per year – half a metre per hour.
In the study published in Geophysical Research Letters, a team led by scientists from the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds in the UK combined observations from eight satellite missions, including Sentinel-1A and CryoSat, with results from regional climate models.
(...)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208667-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=7babad723db078f1083e939bb7f737ff)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2015%2F01%2Faustfonna_ice_loss%2F15208668-5-eng-GB%2FAustfonna_ice_loss_small.jpg&hash=fe3d9f2a7d72e10a6541ce573185dd0a)
Icebergs 'have sound signature'Interesting, reminds me of unexplained sounds some of which are probably glaciological in origin:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31028901)
Cross posted from the policy thread. What's old is new again: Shell returns to the Chukchi:
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870 (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31034870)
Pancake ice takes over the Arctic.
http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html (http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090323/full/news.2009.183.html)
Interior Department Rolls Out First Rules For Arctic Drilling
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/02/20/interior-arctic-drilling-rules_n_6723974.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green)
The UK needs to “up its game” in the battle to save the Arctic and should start by appointing an ambassador to the region, according to a critical report from the House of Lords.
“The Arctic is changing in front of our eyes. That change is momentous and unprecedented. It will bring both difficulties and opportunities and it is vital that the UK takes this challenge seriously and is able to respond to it,” said Lord Teverson, chairman of the House of Lords Arctic Committee.
Submarine data used to investigate turbulence beneath Arctic iceThat's an interesting paper, and perhaps highly relevant to this year where the ice in the Barents has been rushing around at the behest of numerous Arctic storms. One would have to assume that the water in that area has been well mixed in the last couple of months.
Submarine data used to investigate turbulence beneath Arctic iceThat's an interesting paper, and perhaps highly relevant to this year where the ice in the Barents has been rushing around at the behest of numerous Arctic storms. One would have to assume that the water in that area has been well mixed in the last couple of months.
This would suggest a more rapid melt in that are than usual.
As I wrote in my story, the flight to Kivalina, which hugged the coastline of the Chukchi Sea north of Kotzebue, Alaska, revealed weak sea ice conditions that were visible to the naked eye. In many cases, the ice covering the ocean did not reach the frozen shore. The ice itself had extended fractures in many places — and this was February
Looking at the salinity, it seems to me that for the first time there is a seeable bridge of salinity between the pacific and the atlantic ocean.Even more apparent here,
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsss_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
This is not, however, the time to hang heads and concede the Arctic. Shell still needs to gain approval for its exploration plans, a revised set of which were just submitted to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM). And even if BOEM deems these plans complete, there will still be a comment period to follow during which the public will have the chance to speak up for the Arctic.
Arctic Waves Pound Vanishing Ice
MOSCOW — Russia formally staked a claim on Tuesday to a vast area of the Arctic Ocean, including the North Pole.
Let's get one thing out of the way really quickly: The ancient, giant virus recently discovered in melting Arctic ice is not going to kill you.https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/09/09/an-ancient-giant-virus-was-just-uncovered-in-melting-ice-and-it-wont-be-the-last/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2015/09/09/an-ancient-giant-virus-was-just-uncovered-in-melting-ice-and-it-wont-be-the-last/)
But here's the bad news: It's not the first ancient virus that scientists have found frozen — it's the fourth found since 2003. And you can be sure it won't be the last. And with climate change causing massive melts, it's not totally alarmist to suggest that something deadly might one day emerge from a long, icy sleep.
The Sierra Club, Environmental Media Association and RYOT launched today the first-ever virtual reality climate change public service announcement, which offers 360 degree panoramic shots that catapults viewers into the heart of the Arctic to explore frontline communities and melting glaciers.
In research published in the journal Science of the Total Environment, Evenset and her colleagues reported that the population of Arctic char landlocked in Bear Island’s Lake Ellasjøen contains some of the highest levels of toxic persistent organic pollutants found above the Arctic Circle.
The study found that the Arctic char in Lake Ellasjøen had up to 36 times more polychlorinated biphenyls, or PCBs, in their body tissues as the same species in Lake Laksvatn, near Bear Island's northern coast. Female Arctic char in Lake Ellasjøen also showed higher levels of hexachlorobenzene in 2009 and 2012 than they had in 1999 and 2001 and had six times the amount of organohalogenated compounds in their ovaries that they had in their muscle tissue.
does not seem very reasonable to me. Virtually all glaciers cycle the ice over thousands of years, so we are continuously "exposed" to thawing diseases. Yet, there are far more dangerous sources of disease to worry about - a single mass animal farm breeds more new and virulent diseases than a giant glacier can spew out in rapid melt.Let us divide your issues into 3 parts. warm land, mountain glaciers and sea level ice and land (will includes Greenland and Antarctica in this as the caving points are at sea level.
CB: Is there any good news at all with Arctic sea-ice? There was a NASA study that suggested that, perhaps, older, multi-year sea ice was recovering a bit since the 2012 low. Is that happening?
GS: So, what you are seeing is, again, some of that inter-annual variability that is driven by, you know, the vagaries of the weather in any particular summer season. It’s not in any sense a recovery, but, obviously, once you have a really exceptional year – the one you had in 2012 – anything after that is going to look like it’s a recovery, but the long-term trends are very, very dramatic. The sea-ice thickness has gone down by over 40%, the amount of old ice – so this is the thick, ridged ice that’s been around for multiple seasons – has gone down to historic lows. So, it’s not going down to the extent where it’s all going to disappear this year or next year, but the decline is very significant and is steady.
Hi,
I'm new to the site so forgive me if this has been covered before but could somebody explain this massive fracture showing on the AARI website?
Gastornis was also discovered in Wyoming but scientists confirm finding of fossils on Ellesmere island as bird thought to migrate during dark Arctic winters
Scientists said the discovery of Gastornis on Ellesmere island provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate.
Scientists said the discovery of Gastornis on Ellesmere island provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate. Photograph: Marlin Peterson
Oliver Milman
A giant, flightless bird with a head the size of a horse’s roamed the Arctic 53m years ago when the icy wilderness was more like a swamp, scientists have confirmed.
A joint study by American and Chinese institutions found that the massive beast, known as Gastornis, existed on what is now known as Ellesmere island, found above the Arctic circle. It’s estimated the bird was 6ft tall and weighed several hundred pounds.
The evidence for Gastornis’s presence in the Arctic comes from a single fossil toe bone, found by researchers in the 1970s. Scientists have now finally confirmed that the bone matches that of a fossilized Gastornis of similar age found in Wyoming.
“I couldn’t tell the Wyoming specimens from the Ellesmere specimen, even though it was found roughly 4,000km (2,500 miles) to the north,” said Prof Thomas Stidham of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing. Stidham and his colleague Jaelyn Eberle, of the University of Colorado Boulder, matched the bones through techniques such as studying where muscle attachments lay. The research has been published in Scientific Reports.
The research raises some interesting questions over the behavior of Gastornis. The giant bird may have migrated south during winters in the Arctic, where darkness envelops the region for months at a time. The species was originally thought to be a formidable carnivore but recent research suggests that Gastornis was probably a vegan, using its huge beak to munch through leaves, nuts, seeds and fruit.
Eberle said bird fossils found in the Arctic are “extremely rare” and that the researchers aren’t sure whether Gastornis lived in the area year round.
“There are some sea ducks today that spend the winter in the cold, freezing Arctic, and we see many more species of waterfowl that are only in the Arctic during the relatively warmer spring and summer months,” she said.
Canada’s Ellesmere island is the 10th largest island in the world and lies adjacent to Greenland. Riven with fjords and attached to vast aprons of ice, Ellesmere is one of the coldest, driest and most remote places on Earth. Temperatures can reach -40C (-40F) in winter.
It was a very different place 53m years ago, however, during the Eocene epoch. During this time, Antarctica was still attached to Australia and global temperatures were unusually warm, which meant the world was mostly ice-free. Ellesmere island would have been covered in the sort of cypress swamps now found much farther south in the US, with evidence that the area hosted turtles, alligators, primates and even large hippo-like and rhino-like mammals.
While apes and alligators won’t be returning to Ellesmere any time soon, the researchers said that the discovery of Gastornis provided a better understanding of the consequences of a changed climate.
“Permanent Arctic ice, which has been around for millennia, is on track to disappear,” Eberle said.
“I’m not suggesting there will be a return of alligators and giant tortoises to Ellesmere island any time soon. But what we know about past warm intervals in the Arctic can give us a much better idea about what to expect in terms of changing plant and animal populations there in the future.”
Amplification of Arctic warming by past air
pollution reductions in Europe
The Arctic region is warming considerably faster than the rest
of the globe
1
, with important consequences for the ecosystems
2
and human exploration of the region
3
. However, the reasons
behind this Arctic amplification are not entirely clear
4
. As
a result of measures to enhance air quality, anthropogenic
emissions of particulate matter and its precursors have
drastically decreased in parts of the Northern Hemisphere over
the past three decades
5
. Here we present simulations with
an Earth system model with comprehensive aerosol physics
and chemistry that show that the sulfate aerosol reductions
in Europe since 1980 can potentially explain a significant
fraction of Arctic warming over that period. Specifically, the
Arctic region receives an additional 0.3 W m
Ice wedges, a common subsurface feature in permafrost landscapes, appear to be rapidly melting throughout the Arctic, according to a new study published today in the journal Nature Geoscience.http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2016-03/uoaf-diw031116.php)
The wedges, which can be the size of a house, gradually formed over hundreds or even thousands of years as water seeped into permafrost cracks. On the ground surface, they form polygon shapes roughly 15-30 meters wide -- a defining characteristic of northern landscapes.
The micro-topographic features of ice wedge polygons affect drainage, snow distribution and the general wetness or dryness of a landscape.
Anna Liljedahl, an assistant professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks' Water and Environmental Research Center, and her co-authors gathered information about the types of ice-wedge polygons and how they changed over time across the Arctic. They collected the information while performing various other permafrost studies.
Although these regions contain "cold permafrost," with an overall average temperature of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit, surface thawing still occurred at all of the 10 study sites.
Ice wedge degradation has been observed before in individual locations, but this is the first study to determine that rapid melting has become widespread throughout the Arctic.
"Here we're combining observations from people working in the field across the Arctic -- Russia, Canada and Alaska -- where we're seeing the same ice wedge melting phenomenon," said Liljedahl, the lead author of the study.
Such thawing could bring significant changes to the hydrology of much of the Arctic as it alters the ground-surface topography. Melting of ice wedge tops makes the ground that surrounds the polygons subside, which in turn allows drainage of ice-wedge polygon centers. This can create a connective drainage system that encourages runoff and therefore an overall drying of the landscape.
"It's really the tipping point for the hydrology," Liljedahl said. "Suddenly you're draining the landscape and creating more runoff, even if the amount of precipitation remains the same. Instead of being absorbed by the tundra, the snowmelt water will run off into lakes and larger rivers. It really is a dramatic hydrologic change across the tundra landscape."
A comprehensive satellite image survey hasn't been done to determine how common polygon ice wedge patterns are in permafrost areas, but as much as two-thirds of the Arctic landscape is suited to their formation, Liljedahl said.
Gradual warming of permafrost has been well-documented in the Arctic, but the polygon study indicates that a brief period of unusual warmth can cause a rapid shift in a short time period.
At the sites that were studied, ice wedge degradation occurred in less than a decade. In some cases, a single unusually warm summer was enough to cause more than 10 centimeters of surface subsidence, enough to result in pooling and runoff in an otherwise relatively flat landscape.
Vladimir Romanovsky, a UAF geophysics professor who monitored ice wedge degradation for the study at a site in Canada, said the overall conclusions of the study were striking.
"We were not expecting to see these dramatic changes," he said. "We could see some other places where ice wedges were melting, but they were all related to surface disturbances, or it happened a long time ago. Whatever is happening, it's something new for at least the last 60 years in the Arctic."
On 13 April, coast guard officials from the US and Canada will train for a cruise ship catastrophe: a mass rescue from a luxury liner on its maiden voyage through the remote and deathly cold waters between the Northwest Passage and the Bering Strait.http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/28/us-canada-arctic-cruise-ship-titanic-emergency-training-coast-guard (http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/mar/28/us-canada-arctic-cruise-ship-titanic-emergency-training-coast-guard)
The prospect of just such a disaster occurring amid the uncharted waters and capricious weather of the Arctic is becoming all too real.
The loss of Arctic sea ice cover, due to climate change, has spurred a sharp rise in shipping traffic – as well as coast guard rescue missions – and increased the risks of oil spills, shipping accidents, and pollution, much to the apprehension of native communities who make their living on the ice.
It’s into these turbulent waters that the luxury cruise ship Crystal Serenity will set sail next August, departing from Seward, Alaska, and transiting the Bering Strait and Northwest Passage, before docking in New York City 32 days later.
...
Nome, which saw just 35 dockings in the 1990s, had more than 730 last year.
“I think tourism is good for Nome,” Beneville, the town’s indefatigable mayor, said. “In tourism there is a saying: ‘if people can get there, they will go’, and that is becoming possible.” He went on: “There is a lot at stake here. We want Nome to be a strategic point in the north.”
Nome, Alaska may become the next top tourist destination -- for cruise ships.
<snippage>
I'll be going to some of these presentations next week, and will report on the ASIB. I'm looking forward to it.I am such a geek - all of those look quite interesting and some positively excite me. I'm envious. I'll look forward to seeing your posts later, Neven.
I'll be going to some of these presentations next week, and will report on the ASIB. I'm looking forward to it.
Dramatic sea ice break/melt in #BeaufortSea (4/1 vs. 4/24, #MODIS Terra 1km) nearly a month earlier than normal
https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/724626347625082880
Pangnirtung, Nunavut melted a 90-year-old heat record Tuesday as temperatures climbed to 10 C, according to Environment Canada.http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/pangnirtung-heat-record-1.3553971 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/pangnirtung-heat-record-1.3553971)
The community is located almost 300 kilometres northeast of Iqaluit on Baffin Island, just south of the Arctic Circle. It is known as the 'Switzerland of the Arctic' for its steep mountains and fiords.
Pangnirtung's previous heat record for April 26 was set in 1926 with a high of 6.7 C, said Dave Phillips, Environment Canada's senior climatologist. Seasonal temperatures are usually closer to —7 C.
"I mean, these would be warm days even for the dog days of summer," said Phillips.
...
Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies.
Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate.
Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase.
We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.
New paper by James Screen and Jennifer Francis:Interesting that the relation seems somewhat weak - 2013 and 2014 had significant to moderate -PDO but considerable recovery on the part of the ice.
Contribution of sea-ice loss to Arctic amplification is regulated by Pacific Ocean decadal variability (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3011.html)
Abstract:Quote...
Through analyses of both observations and model simulations, we show that the contribution of sea-ice loss to wintertime Arctic amplification seems to be dependent on the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).
Our results suggest that, for the same pattern and amount of sea-ice loss, consequent Arctic warming is larger during the negative PDO phase relative to the positive phase, leading to larger reductions in the poleward gradient of tropospheric thickness and to more pronounced reductions in the upper-level westerlies.
Given the oscillatory nature of the PDO, this relationship has the potential to increase skill in decadal-scale predictability of the Arctic and sub-Arctic climate.
Our results indicate that Arctic warming in response to the ongoing long-term sea-ice decline is greater (reduced) during periods of the negative (positive) PDO phase.
We speculate that the observed recent shift to the positive PDO phase, if maintained and all other factors being equal, could act to temporarily reduce the pace of wintertime Arctic warming in the near future.
(I added paragraph breaks for readability)
Aware that the F17 satellite was getting old, the NSIDC had been running calibration tests to maintain a consistent record of sea ice extent between the sensor on the F17 satellite and the DMSP F19 satellite, which was launched in 2014.http://mashable.com/2016/05/03/arctic-ice-satellite-outage/ (http://mashable.com/2016/05/03/arctic-ice-satellite-outage/)
But that ended on Feb. 11, 2016, when F19 went completely dark.
"Well, F19 died,” Serreze said. “That was not good, we kind of picked the wrong horse there.”
The important thing for Serreze and his colleagues is that any breaks in sea ice data are minimized, which is why they take time to iron out any kinks from one instrument before they switch to it. Such calibration periods, as they're known, are a crucial part of climate science research and monitoring.
Because of the F17 sensor outage, though, they are being forced to cope with a discontinuity or gap in the data.
"The problem was initially seen in data for April 5 and all data since then are unreliable, so we have chosen to remove all of April from NSIDC’s archive," the organization stated on its website.
To restart the gathering of sea ice extent information, scientists are running parallel data streams from instruments on two other Defense Department satellites, known as DMSP F16 and F18. Both of these satellites have a design lifetime that ends this year, though many spacecraft continue functioning long after that point.
Serreze said the hope is that sea ice data from these satellites will be available within the next week or so, just in time for the start of the annual summer melt season.
Cryosat spacecraft's ice vision is boostedhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36272728 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36272728)
Svalbard bears number around 3,000 in winter, but the permanent local population is only in the hundreds. A recent paper correlated disappearing sea ice with a steady increase in polar bears plundering Arctic seabird colonies. Jouke Prop, a biologist from the University of Groningen, in the Netherlands, first noticed predation at his study site in southwest Svalbard in 2004. A decade later, not a single chick had survived the breeding season.https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/05/18/waning-sea-ice-threatens-fragile-arctic-food-web (https://www.newsdeeply.com/arctic/articles/2016/05/18/waning-sea-ice-threatens-fragile-arctic-food-web)
Prop has watched a lifetime of study gobbled up in a few short seasons. A hungry bear can raid 50 nests in an hour and a half, consuming 200 eggs, akin to a 20kg (44lb) omelet. According to Prop, a small number of bears have learned when and where to return each year for the best meals; such intense predation may eventually destroy ancestral breeding sites.
Pink snow was a high-latitude curiosity described by Arctic explorers such as Britain’s John Ross. Upon receiving word of the reddish snow, the London Times speculated in 1818 that the color came from meteoric iron deposits. Biologists know now that the red hue is the result of a chemical reaction within the algae Chlamydomonas nivalis and other cold-loving species. These algae are normally green, but as they start to suck up ultraviolet rays, they turn red.
What may look like an Arctic accident involving gallons of pink lemonade is, in fact, reddish algae blooming in the snow. The unusual phenomenon is also found in high altitudes, and sometimes called watermelon snow or blood snow.
Despite the Willy Wonka tinge, the snow hides a sobering reality: According to a new study, the algae cause Arctic melts, which are already happening at an unprecedented pace because of climate change,to worsen.
Satellites provide a near-continuous record of Arctic sea ice cover, allowing scientists to monitor changes from one day to the next. But because this data spans only the most recent three and a half decades, we need to look elsewhere to gather information on variations over longer periods.https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850 (https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850)
This data is necessary as there are some research questions that can’t be answered with only short-term records, such as:
Has Arctic sea ice cover been this small since the start of the industrial revolution?
Has sea ice ever declined this rapidly in the historical record?
How is sea ice affected by natural fluctuations over multiple decades?
To tackle this problem we set about constructing a record of sea ice going back to 1850. And this meant gathering data from some rather unusual sources. ...
A new oilfield has been discovered at the Zapadno-Chatylkinsky license block, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, under licence to Gazprom Neft subsidiary Gazpromneft-Noyabrskneftegaz. Drilling of three exploratory wells has revealed six independent oil deposits, with total geological reserves estimated at more than 40 million tonnes, subsequently confirmed by the State Commission on Mineral Reserves.
I'm afraid this door can be unslammed should the new folks in DC so desire.
The key to minimizing the rollback in progress (on many fronts) may lie in Democrats allowing some significant rollbacks on some significant fronts.
'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'link (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/)
Five years ago Semiletov reported:Quote'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'
'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.
'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."
The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research
New expedition in Laptev Sea suggests increase in the rate of underwater permafrost degradation.Quote'The area of spread of methane mega-emissions has significantly increased in comparison with the data obtained in the period from 2011 to 2014,' Semiletov said. 'These observations may indicate that the rate of degradation of underwater permafrost has increased.'link (http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/others/news/n0760-arctic-methane-gas-emission-significantly-increased-since-2014-major-new-research/)
Five years ago Semiletov reported:Quote'We found more than 100 fountains, some more than a kilometre across....These are methane fields on a scale not seen before. The emissions went directly into the atmosphere... Earlier we found torch or fountain-like structures like this...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'
'We have reason to believe that such emissions may change the climate. This is due to the fact that the reserves of methane under the submarine permafrost exceed the methane content in the atmosphere is many thousands of times.
'If 3-4% from underwater go into the atmosphere within 10 years, the methane concentration therein (in the atmosphere) will increase by tens to hundreds of times, and this can lead to rapid climate warming."
The new expedition was organised by the Laboratory of Arctic Research in Pacific Oceanology Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences in cooperation with Tomsk Polytechnic University (TPU), the Institute of Oceanology of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, and was funded by the Russian Government and the Russian Science Foundation.
Arctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'
Hey people,
Just joined the forum. Here's some news from Arctic Norway - Bodø exactly. Temperatures been warm for a while as you can see from the Yr statistics.
http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod (http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Nordland/Bod)ø/Bodø/statistics.html
I study climate change and politics here within the UArctic system.
/aarne
QuoteArctic methane gas emission 'significantly increased since 2014' - major new research...
'This is the first time that we've found continuous, powerful and impressive seeping structures, more than 1,000 metres in diameter. It's amazing. Over a relatively small area, we found more than 100, but over a wider area, there should be thousands of them.'
A. Send this info to President Trump
B. Watch with 'interest' as oil exploration ships and rigs operate and flare waste gas within an ocean populated by kilometer-scale methane plumes. Be interesting to see the Health and Safety Plan for that job!!!
When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice. Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere. Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place. I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil. So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane. Of course, I'm no geologist lol. I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on. It's just not feasible. An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.
I don't think anotheramethyst was suggesting they wouldn't do it, nor that they wouldn't put scads of engineers to work on the problems.When I imagine this, I first picture them building the drilling rig on top of the ice. Then, as the ice moves around and it floats away, I picture them building a new rig in a lead somewhere. Then I picture the ice crashing into the rig and knocking it out of place. I used to worry that there would be a nearly instant and unstoppable oil spill, but the more I think about it, I seriously doubt they will ever reach any oil. So I honestly think there is no chance of them reaching the point where they flare methane. Of course, I'm no geologist lol. I still think drilling in the arctic is the biggest, dumbest, most obvious PR nightmare any oil company could possibly embark on. It's just not feasible. An oil spill is a near certainty, if they ever actually reach any oil, which, in my mind, is highly doubtful.
No offense but I think you're being naive about the scale of effort these companies are willing to put into such a project. I mean this is just a normal oil rig base:
(https://twistedsifter.files.wordpress.com/2016/03/steel-jacket-being-towed-offshore-esa-shell.jpg)
and I'm sure they have large teams of competent engineers trying to figure out how they need to beef the rigs up.
I can't see the oil being drilled any time soon. I think it's more of a book keeping exercise.
There's no way that producing this oil will be cost effective, but having an extra few hundred million barrels of proven reserve increases the company value.
There would need to be HUGE reserves there - fields in the billion barrel range, for it to be remotely cost effective to produce. We haven't found fields like that for many years.
At the moment, anyone trying to set up new production of offshore oil in the Arctic will lose a whole lot of money. Should the price of oil go back up around $100 a barrel then maybe...but then oil that high will crash the economy.
The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.
Buddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.
no worries anotheramethyst! 8)The big question is how far past 2C and what are the impacts? My opinion is 2.4C increases our chances much more than 2.5C, so it's well worth fighting for every 0.1C we can get.
I love that! 100% agree, and I will also steal this quote and use it often. sorry but you can't stop me ;)
QuoteBuddy, it seems we're witnessing first hand an amazing drama/contest over the future of human civilization, and drilling in the Arctic is symbolic of how that fight is going.
Interesting times indeed......and the Arctic is an incredibly important battleground for multiple reasons.
And in the words of the immortal Babe Ruth: "It's hard to beat a person who never gives up."
All references to Climate change have been removed from the White House page as of noon, when Trump was sworn in as POTUS. Any bets on how long the U.S. government will continue to track arctic and antarctic ice? NSIDC, NOAA, NASA climate data's day may be numbered.
Germany is going to sail its 120m-long research vessel, the Polarstern, into the sea-ice at the top of the world and just let it get stuck so it can drift across the north pole.
The 2,500km (1,550-mile) trip, to begin in 2019, is likely to take a year.
Researchers hope to gather valuable new insights on the region where Earth's climate is changing fastest.
Last month the extent of Arctic sea-ice was the lowest ever recorded for a January (during the satellite era), with temperatures several degrees above the long-term average.
Prof Markus Rex will lead the so-called MOSAiC project:
"The decline of Arctic sea-ice is much faster than the climate models can reproduce and we need better climate models to make better predictions for the future.
"There is a potential that in a few decades the Arctic will be ice free in summer. That would be a different world and we need to know about that in advance; we need to know is that going to happen or will that not happen?"
"Ice-locked ship to drift over the North Pole"
Hopefully they will have some ice to drift with...My thoughts exactly!
Barneo 2017 being established.
The ocean has become gradually less stratified since the 1970s. Using data from buoys and satellites, Polyakov and his colleagues have found a more marked shift over the past decade and a half. Since 2002, the difference in water temperatures between the layers has dropped by about 2°F.
Did the guys who decided to put the seed vault where it is on Spitzbergen get their climate change forecasts from Breitbart News, and / or Scott Pruitt and / or Lamar Smith ?They were using the best information they had at the time using the resources available. There is no need to insult them.
Last week, at a New Orleans conference center that once doubled as a storm shelter for thousands during Hurricane Katrina, a group of polar scientists made a startling declaration: The Arctic as we once knew it is no more.http://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be-frozen-again/
The region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state, the scientists said, with wide-ranging ramifications for ecosystems, national security, and the stability of the global climate system. It was a fitting venue for an eye-opening reminder that, on its current path, civilization is engaged in an existential gamble with the planet’s life-support system.
In an accompanying annual report on the Arctic’s health — titled “Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades” — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees all official U.S. research in the region, coined a term: “New Arctic.”
...
“Polar scientists are starting to refer to the New Arctic (their caps), because they’re not quite sure what’s coming next.”While I tend to agree with their assessment, I don't think anyone really knows what is going to happen, and I distrust any pronouncements that "definitively" project anything.
Let it go: The Arctic will never be frozen againQuoteLast week, at a New Orleans conference center that once doubled as a storm shelter for thousands during Hurricane Katrina, a group of polar scientists made a startling declaration: The Arctic as we once knew it is no more.http://grist.org/article/let-it-go-the-arctic-will-never-be-frozen-again/
The region is now definitively trending toward an ice-free state, the scientists said, with wide-ranging ramifications for ecosystems, national security, and the stability of the global climate system. It was a fitting venue for an eye-opening reminder that, on its current path, civilization is engaged in an existential gamble with the planet’s life-support system.
In an accompanying annual report on the Arctic’s health — titled “Arctic shows no sign of returning to reliably frozen region of recent past decades” — the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees all official U.S. research in the region, coined a term: “New Arctic.”
...
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.
Ah, the eternal mystical appearance of the sun every morning when it's not cloudy.
In June 2018, Russia will host the International Symposium on Ice to be attended by as many as 250 experts from Southeast Asian countries, Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, and Australia. The event will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University (https://arctic.ru/international/20180206/714435.html).
A cynic such as I might think that such an event may be merely an environmental fig-leaf to cover Russia's real agenda - which is to secure political, military, economic and industrial domination of the Arctic. And with a lot of political and financial help from China, implementation of the strategy is going very well.In June 2018, Russia will host the International Symposium on Ice to be attended by as many as 250 experts from Southeast Asian countries, Europe, the Americas, New Zealand, and Australia. The event will be held at the Far Eastern Federal University (https://arctic.ru/international/20180206/714435.html).
Vladivostok and the Arctic problems? Ha! As I see on the map Vladivostok is about as far south as you can get in Siberia, and it’s really not near the Arctic at all. In fact, sitting on the shoes of the Pacific Ocean, it enjoys a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate. Hasn’t Russia got a more Arctic-oriented city to be chosen as a host-city for the event?!
Vladivostok and the Arctic problems? Ha! As I see on the map Vladivostok is about as far south as you can get in Siberia, and it’s really not near the Arctic at all. In fact, sitting on the shoes of the Pacific Ocean, it enjoys a monsoon-influenced humid continental climate. Hasn’t Russia got a more Arctic-oriented city to be chosen as a host-city for the event?!
“Sea ice in the Bering Sea is at stunning record low levels. Without ice as a buffer, Alaska coastal villages are no longer protected from big storms and their giant waves. Buildings are crumbling. See video at the link below, & read more here: wapo.st/2ENhgWr “Thankyou Sigmetnow,
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/966700103280062465
One of these years is not like the others: Bering Sea ice extent as of Feb 21 from @NSIDC is now <30% of the 1981-2010 median value. Or, if you prefer, 3.6 standard deviations below the mean.
In the stuff from zlabe and holthaus in the above recent posts no acknowledgement to DMI (80+temps) or NSIDC (Bering Sea). Tut tut - after all it is they who do the grunt work that we freely use.
End of grumpy post.
The Grumpy Old Man offers a grovelling apology. I am just jealous - your visuals are just too damn good.In the stuff from zlabe and holthaus in the above recent posts no acknowledgement to DMI (80+temps) or NSIDC (Bering Sea). Tut tut - after all it is they who do the grunt work that we freely use.
End of grumpy post.
No. I provide direct references to the DMI on the actual graph itself and in my link with the caption. I tag the NSIDC in every post in reference to the Bering Sea ice graphs. The data source is always acknowledged. I upload all of my code on my GitHub for complete open access of the science... https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs (https://github.com/zmlabe/IceVarFigs)
No problem - thank you! My goals in science communication are to provide everyone with the ability to access/find and understand the information presented... so it is very important to me that all sources are acknowledged :)
There's so much heat coming into the Arctic from both sides that the temperature north of 80° is spiking to new record heights, as shown on Zack Labe's rendition of the DMI 80N temperature graph, and it will most probably climb some more:
“At this very moment, the temperature in the high Arctic is at a wintertime record high.
Never in our recordkeeping has it been this warm between early November and late March -- in the midst of 24-hour Arctic night. ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/967114799627763712
“Wow... truly a remarkable event ongoing right now in the #Arctic.
Current temperatures well above previous years in February (>80°N latitude)! Average temperature is the bright blue line http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-temperatures/ “
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/967112763033047040
Image below.
In the new research, Marilena Oltmanns and two colleagues at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel, Germany, found that following particularly warm summers in the remote Irminger Sea, convection tended to be more impaired in winter. In some cases, a layer of meltwater stayed atop the ocean into the next year, rather than vanishing into its depths as part of the overturning circulation, which has sometimes been likened to an ocean “conveyor belt.”
So there’s a lot of groundbreaking work going on in the climate sciences right now. And a major focus is evidence that winter polar warming events are increasingly connected to blizzards and storms in places like Europe and North America. Storms that are both historically powerful and that occur with greater frequency...
There’s a new island in the Arctic, discovered by teenage Russian students:Any idea, where exactly this new little island has been discovered?
A new paper by University of Washington oceanographer Rebecca Woodgate, for example, finds that the volume of Pacific Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean through the Bering Strait surged up to 70 percent over the past decade and now equals 50 times the annual flow of the Mississippi River. And over on the Atlantic flank of the Arctic, another recent report concludes that the Arctic Ocean’s cold layering system that blocks Atlantic inflows is breaking down, allowing a deluge of warmer, denser water to flood into the Arctic Basin.
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.
Rising temperatures and declining sea ice are driving a “rapid climate shift” in the Arctic’s Barents Sea, a new study says.
The research, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that warming conditions and decreasing sea ice volume “may soon” see the Barents Sea complete a transition from cold, fresh Arctic waters to a warm, salty Atlantic regime.
If current trends continue, the transition could occur “around 2040”, the lead author tells Carbon Brief. This would have “unknown consequences” for the wider ecosystem and commercial fishing, the study warns.
But, in recent years, scientists have documented the “Atlantification” of the Barents sea as an increased inflow of Atlantic water has enlarged the area where sea ice cannot form. This has resulted in decline in ice extent on the Barents Sea, particularly in eastern areas.https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantification-arctic-sea-tipping-towards-new-climate-regime
Using decades of data collected from ships and satellites, the new study investigates the causes behind these changes, finding that they are, ultimately, caused by rising temperatures in the Arctic and the associated decrease in sea ice.
Sea change
Sea ice plays a key role in keeping the northern Barents Sea in its Arctic climate regime. In addition to the sea ice that forms on its surface, the region receives an “import” of sea ice each year, blown in from the central Arctic by the wind.
When the imported sea ice melts in spring and summer, it provides an influx of freshwater to the Barents Sea. This cold, fresh water top-ups the Arctic layer of the northern region, helping to maintain the stratification that works as a barrier to the warm Atlantic waters below.
But the amount of ice the Barents Sea receives each year is declining. The average annual area of ice import during 2000-15 was around 40% smaller, on average, than during 1979-2009, the study finds. The decrease in volume of sea ice imported “was even larger”, the study says, at approximately 60%. ...
Abstract
Using high-resolution ice core and tree ring proxies for sea ice extent (SIE), we reconstructed a robust time series of autumn SIE over the Barents-Kara (B-K) sector of the Arctic from AD1289–1993. After intercomparing the results and statistical parameters using the ordinary least squares regression (OLSR), the principle component regression (PCR) and the partial least squares regression (PLSR) methods, SIE time series were synthesized into a more robust series using the weighted average method, which used the explained variances as weights. The results showed that from the end of the 13th century to the end of 18th century, the autumn B-K SIE was large, with large variations and a slightly expanding trend overall. This reflected significant multidecadal oscillations under the Little Ice Age (LIA) background. The B-K SIE began to decrease at the end of the 18th century, and a shrinking trend became significant during the second half of the 19th century, which lasted into the 1930s–1940s. The 1930s–1940s was a period with a relatively low SIE in the B-K Sea, and the SIE had a short period of expansion from the 1940s–1970s. However, the B-K SIE has continuously and significantly shrank since the 1970s. The reduction in the B-K SIE since the end of the 18th century has been unprecedented in both duration and speed over the last 700 years. The B-K SIE has retreated significantly since the 1970s, with a speed 6.18 times greater than the former mean retreating speed. The industrial revolution may be a dominant factor in this result. The Arctic SIE in recent years may be the lowest it has been over the last millennium.
Considering the significance of proxy data (e.g., tree rings can only reflect climatic conditions during the growing seasons, which are mainly in summer and autumn) and the fact that ice-free conditions may emerge in the B-K area in September, we reconstruct Arctic sea ice in the B-K Sea during August and October (defined as autumn here).
Abstract
Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.
Abrupt thaw implications
While the cumulative land area subject to abrupt thaw lake formation is less than one tenth of permafrost land areas (Supplementary Fig. 4e, f), our modeling results (Fig. 4), supported by field work (Figs 1 and 5) and remote sensing (Fig. 3), show that an increase in the volume of newly thawed sub-lake sediments through expansion of existing and formation of new thermokarst lakes is likely to yield disproportionately large releases of 14C-depleted permafrost carbon to the atmosphere this century.
...
In contrast to shallow, gradual thaw that may rapidly re-form permafrost upon climate cooling, deep, CH4-yielding abrupt thaw is irreversible this century. Once formed, lake taliks continue to deepen even under colder climates17, mobilizing carbon that was sequestered from the atmosphere over tens of thousands of years. The release of this carbon as CH4 and CO2 is irreversible in the 21st century. This irreversible, abrupt thaw climate feedback is large enough to warrant continued efforts toward integrating mechanisms that speed up deep permafrost-carbon thaw and release into large-scale models used to predict the rate of Earth’s climate change.
Arctic sea ice isn't just threatened by the melting of ice around its edges, a new study has found: Warmer water that originated hundreds of miles away has penetrated deep into the interior of the Arctic.
That "archived" heat, currently trapped below the surface, has the potential to melt the region's entire sea-ice pack if it reaches the surface, researchers say.
The study appears online Aug. 29 in the journal Science Advances.
"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University.
The upper ocean in the Canadian Basin has seen a two-fold increase in heat content over the past 30 years, the researchers said. They traced the source to waters hundreds of miles to the south, where reduced sea ice has left the surface ocean more exposed to summer solar warming. In turn, Arctic winds are driving the warmer water north, but below the surface waters.
"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said. "Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."
It's only a matter of time. Today's AMSR2 should be alarming to anyone. Pretty clear we only have a couple years left. And if something dramatic and unexpected happens...
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.
there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year
There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.
This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.
Wow!
I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.
there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year
There has been much disagreement around here over the years about how soon there could be a year-long (or nearly year long) ice free (or nearly ice free) Arctic Ocean, with many people say ing that a (nearly) year-round Blue Ocean Event would be decades to centuries away, if it ever happens at all.
This study, though, is saying that it could basically happen any time, given the right conditions. Presumably those conditions would look something like the Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC) of 2012, or perhaps something even stronger, that would both break up the weak and thin ice and also create waves big enough to stir up this deeper, hotter (and saltier) water.
Wow!
I'd love to hear what others have to say, and if this study is changing some peoples minds about when we may have year-round ice-free Arctic Ocean (or something quite close).
jack, that 'archived heat' article is a stunner, especially the conclusion.
there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year
Read the paper rather than a journalists sexed-up account of it. Its worth reading, the articles about it aren't.
"We document a striking ocean warming in one of the main basins of the interior Arctic Ocean, the Canadian Basin," said lead author Mary-Louise Timmermans, a professor of geology and geophysics at Yale University...
"This means the effects of sea-ice loss are not limited to the ice-free regions themselves, but also lead to increased heat accumulation in the interior of the Arctic Ocean that can have climate effects well beyond the summer season," Timmermans said.
"Presently this heat is trapped below the surface layer. Should it be mixed up to the surface, there is enough heat to entirely melt the sea-ice pack that covers this region for most of the year."
Aircraft carrier Harry S. Truman strikes north of the Arctic Circle (https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=107489) ...No, its the Aircraft Carrier Harry S. Truman Strike Group, north of the Arctic Circle......
Interior Department officials announced their approval Wednesday of a company’s plan to drill for oil six miles off the Alaskan coast in the shallow waters of the Beaufort Sea.
If the development by Hilcorp Energy moves forward, it would be the first oil and gas production facility in federal waters in Alaska, Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke said in the announcement, a major victory for the oil industry and a blow to conservation groups that fought it, fearing a possible leak in a sensitive and pristine natural environment.
A science expedition to the area has discovered “large concentrations of radioactivity” in the ice – and concludes that the glaciers are melting into the sea at record speed.
The primary goals for the Russian researchers were to study whether hundreds of containers with dumped radioactive waste in the Kara Sea were leaking or not.
Sailing the Kara Sea and the bays along the east coast of Novaya Zemlya (http://www.nuclear-risks.org/en/hibakusha-worldwide/novaya-zemlya.html) from August 17th to September 20th, the researchers on board “Akademik Keldysh” conclude there are good reasons to continue monitoring the dumped containers, but preliminary results gives no indications of leakages. However, especially one barge that was discovered at 400 meters depth, filled with radioactive waste containers, requires special attention for the future. Underwater footages show the barge is destroyed and some containers have fallen out and are spread on the seafloor, news agency TASS reports.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/c/c9/Tsar_photo11.jpg/220px-Tsar_photo11.jpg)
More worrying is the radiation discovered in the glaciers stretching out in the waters.
From 1957 to 1962, a total of 86 nuclear bomb tests were carried out in the atmosphere at Novaya Zemlya. The tests include the largest nuclear devices ever exploded, like the so-called 58 megatons Tsar-bomb (https://www.thevintagenews.com/2018/07/09/tsar-bomba/) on October 30, 1961.
It is the fallout from these tests that now are about to melt out to the sea.
... Explaining how the glaciers in the area are retreating, the researchers tell how “Akademik Keldysh” sailed to the point in Blagopoluchiye Bay where the Vershinsky glacier in 2014 ended in the sea. Today, that spot was more than 2 kilometers out from where the terminus of the glacier is now.
(https://www.thevintagenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/site-of-the-detonation.jpg)
We need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.
Figure 1. Future simulation of Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) and sea ice surface (SIA) showing that the sea ice thickness is decreasing nowadays, while in the future the sea ice surface will decrease.
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?Spell checker mess.
The KNMI (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute) issued a small news report (what they call climate-message).
The message is that the decline of Arctic Sea Ice has been mostly in thickness, not area. And that will change when the ice get thinner. The consequence of this is that Arctic warming will amplify asAlbertoAlbedo will drop.
On twitter one of the scientists speculates that Arctic amplification will increase from current 2-3 to future 4-5.QuoteWe need climate models to make the best estimates of future changes in the climate. KNMI plays an important role in the development of a precise global climate model (EC-Earth) with which we can study the consequences of Arctic changes. The model results show that sea-ice retreat will play an increasingly important role in the loss of Arctic sea ice in the future (figure 1). Because this increases the warming of the Arctic relatively strongly (compared to the thinning), the temperature in the Arctic is expected to rise more and more quickly.
Safe to assume Alberto should be Albedo?Maybe they painted the "OH, Boy Alberto" hydroplane a darker color. But I don't think they renamed it to Albedo. ;D
“We live on a planet where you can survey anything and you think you know everything,” said Kjær. “But when you see such a big thing as this hiding in plain sight, you realise that the age of discovery is not over yet.”
Over the past three decades of global warming, the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic has declined by a stunning 95 percent, according the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s annual Arctic Report Card.https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.769a171a3d17&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/11/arctic-is-even-worse-shape-than-you-realize/?utm_term=.769a171a3d17&wpisrc=al_environment__alert-hse&wpmk=1)
The finding suggests that the sea at the top of the world has already morphed into a new and very different state, with major implications not only for creatures such as walruses and polar bears but, in the long term, perhaps for the pace of global warming itself.
The Arctic is changing exactly the way scientists thought it would but faster than even the most aggressive predictions. The recent behavior is off the charts.
A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:
Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.
She is one of a rare species, a damn good scientist willing to challenge conventional wisdom, and a damn good communicator.A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:
The article is from April 1st.Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.
First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.
A new article ...
Ok sorry for the mistake on the journal name.A new article in the Scientific American is quite good, covering a lot of what has been happening in the Arctic:
The article is from April 1st.Jennifer Francis in American Scientist is quite the American Alarmist.
First of all, it's Scientific American. Second, if you think that a scientist who tries to make sense of the consequences that rapid Arctic sea ice loss will inevitably have, nay, is already having, is 'alarmist', you're in the wrong forum.
Yes I only saw the publication date 1st April on my second visit - but the intro explains why it was republished yesterday.
Except for increasing their wallets sizes and their influence in power circles. Which I think, it could be, possibly, in the agenda of Ms. Francis.
"The swift warming is altering the jet stream and polar vortex, prolonging heat waves, droughts, deep freezes and heavy rains worldwide."
There is no scientific proof of this, at all. It is her conjecture with solid basis, but certainly not a demonstrated fact to expose it with such arrogant certainty.
Concur with Juan.I don't doubt that. Also I am not going to bet against Neven on these matters.
Francis has been ahead of the curve describing some of the phenomena we see currently.
There is nothing ulterior in her communicating about it, no is it alarmist.
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.
That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
I'd appreciate it if you find some other scientist to insult, or go insult Francis elsewhere. She's one of my favourite scientists.Everybody chill. I didn’t even insult her.
That's the last thing I'm going to say about this.
But If you consider “alarmist” an insult, and/or you are in the mood of banning someone, yeah go ahead, use the power :-)
The spreading effects of the partial U.S. government shutdown have reached Earth’s melting poles. IceBridge, a decadelong NASA aerial campaign meant to secure a seamless record of ice loss, has had to sacrifice at least half of what was supposed to be its final spring deployment, its scientists say. The shortened mission threatens a crucial plan to collect overlapping data with a new ice-monitoring satellite called the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat)-2.
The climate crisis is intensifying a new military buildup in the Arctic, diplomats and analysts said this week, as regional powers attempt to secure northern borders that were until recently reinforced by a continental-sized division of ice.
That so-called unpaid sentry is now literally melting away, opening up shipping lanes and geo-security challenges, said delegates at the Arctic Frontiers conference, the polar circle’s biggest talking shop, who debated a series of recent escalations.
Russia is reopening and strengthening cold war bases on the Kola peninsula in the far north-west of the country. Norway is beefing up its military presence in the high Arctic.
Last October, Nato staged Trident Juncture with 40,000 troops, its biggest military exercise in Norway in more than a decade. A month earlier Britain announced a new “Defence Arctic Strategy” and promised a 10-year deployment of 800 commandos to Norway and four RAF Typhoons to patrol Icelandic skies. The US is also sending hundreds more marines to the region on long-term rotations and has threatened to send naval vessels through Arctic shipping lanes for the first time.
The Barents Sea is said to be at a tipping point, changing from an Arctic climate to an Atlantic climate as the water gets warmer.
A conference in Norway heard that the Kara Sea and the Laptev Sea – both further to the east - are likely to become the new Arctic frontier.
The scientists warn that it will affect ecosystems.
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):
“The halocline has grown much weaker in recent years,” Polyakov says, “allowing the Atlantic water heat to penetrate upward and reach the bottom of sea ice.” The phenomenon, which began near Svalbard in the late 1990s, is now accelerating and spreading east into Arctic waters above Siberia.Link >> https://e360.yale.edu/features/alien-waters-neighboring-seas-are-flowing-into-a-warming-arctic-ocean
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):It's warm, but probably not that warm. Thread about it here https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2194.msg134595.html#msg134595
What's up with this SST hotspot off Svalbard (and its little brother to the east)...? 18.5 C ... I wouldn't even need a wetsuit...!
I took this shot off null school out of curiosity over 3 weeks ago, and it's still there. Is this normal? An upwelling? Volcanic? Super curious.
So I missed it ... but that spot was around back in 2017 at least. What's puzzling is why Argo floats would say 8 C in August, but nullschool says 18.5 C (on my screenshot). What gives?
Speaking of hotspots (and forgive me if I missed it elsewhere - I'm brand new here):Yeah, I've seen that too but I have a different theory then other presented. Check out the continental shelf in relation to this 'thermal' exchange. Also, notice that there is a current of hot water running north along the european coastline for some time even when we get that cool area south of Greenland. Heat is still making its way north and I think that it HAS heated the methane clathrates in the continental shelf area. If you go over to NOAA MetOp-1 and look near the surface (around 930mb) you will see the methane signature.
Unless humanity makes very rapid and deep pollution cuts, Arctic winter temperatures will rise 5.4° to 9.0°F (3° to 5°C) by 2050 — and will reach an astounding 9° to 16°F (5° to 8.8°C) by 2080 — according to a report by the U.N. Environment Program released Wednesday.
Just found this basic information about Arctic Sea Ice changes since 1980s on YouTube
Temperature rise is ‘locked-in’ for the coming decades in the Arctic
Nairobi, 13 March 2019 – Even if the world were to cut emissions in line with the existing Paris Agreement commitments, winter temperatures over the Arctic Ocean would rise 3-5°C by mid-century, finds a new report by UN Environment.
Meanwhile, rapidly thawing permafrost could even accelerate climate change further and derail efforts to meet the Paris Agreement’s long-term goal of limiting the rise in global temperature to 2°C, warns Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic.
https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/temperature-rise-locked-coming-decades-arctic (https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/temperature-rise-locked-coming-decades-arctic)
Based on satellite monitoring from 1979 to the present, Arctic sea ice area has declined by around 40 per cent (Parkinson and DiGirolamo, 2016). There is a clear link between CO2 emissions and the extent of summer sea ice. Climate models predict that at the current rate of rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, the Arctic will be ice-free in summer by as early as the 2030s (AMAP, 2017a), although there is considerable uncertainty between model estimates (Jahn et al., 2016). [page 14]
Document: "Global Linkages - A graphic look at the changing Arctic"
https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27687/Arctic_Graphics.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y (https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/27687/Arctic_Graphics.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y)
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
This site is just awesome! Very well done Tealight.
What I'm seeing: If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace. I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.
Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...? I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed. Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation).
Curious! Thanks.
What I'm seeing: If you look at the Antarctic anomaly visualization, start the slider at 1979 and advance it year by year (my right arrow worked for me) at a steady pace. I can't help seeing some kind of pattern, a rotation in the areas of more or less anomaly, that seems to persist over the entire data set.
Is this my imagination, or is there some serially correlated melt/freeze pattern that "rotates" around the continent...? I have no idea ... just thought I'd share, since I've found viewing complex data can sometimes lead one to pick up patterns that might go missed. Once upon a time I did some work in this area (the power of visual pattern recognition, with an eye to AI simulation).
Curious! Thanks.
GRAVITY RECOVERY AND CLIMATE EXPERIMENT Follow-OnScience Data System Newsletter
1
GRACE Follow-On
Report: Jan-Mar 2019 (No. 2)
Frank Webb, , Frank Flechtner, Felix Landerer, Michael Watkins, Christoph Dahle
1 Jet propulsion Laboratory / California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA
2 GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany
3 Center for Space Research, University of Texas, Austin, TX
GRACE Follow-On Science Team & Highlights:
On Jan 28, 2019, the mission exited Phase-D (in-orbit-checkout) and entered Phase-E and the
beginning of science operations.
During the first 120 days of Phase-E, the project’s Science Data System (JPL, CSR, GFZ) team will conduct the validation and verification of the flight system operations and data processing approach to obtaining monthly gravity fields at a precision equivalent to that achieved with GRACE. Preliminary results from Phase-D and early Phase-E show that the system performance meets the Level 1 science and technology requirements of continuity with the 15-year record from GRACE.
Since launch (May-22, 2018), GRACE-FO has collected approximately 7 months of the science
data which will be part of the first Level-1A/B data scheduled for release on or before May 28,
2019.
The Level-2 gravity products and the observations from the LRI (Laser Ranging
Interferometer) technology demonstration will be released as planned on or before July-27,
2019. The Science Data System will release the data through the US PO.DAAC
(http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov) and the German ISDC (https://isdc.gfz-potsdam.de/grace-fo-isdc)
data portals (see important updates for PO.DAAC data access below). Detailed documentation
of the Level-1 data processing and the adopted calibration strategies will be released
concurrently with the data.
Important Information for JPL PO.DAAC Users:
NASA is in the process of deprecating the use of the FTP protocol for data and information
access. PO.DAAC is pleased to offer PO.DAAC Drive as a robust FTP alternative for browsing and
retrieving data at PO.DAAC (https://podaac-tools.jpl.nasa.gov/drive/). It offers file navigation
and download through an interface served directly through your browser, and with a familiar
look and feel. It also allows users to access data via a command line so that interactions can be
easily scripted. The entire PO.DAAC archive can also be mounted to a local computer as a
virtual data store.
[/size]
New Sea Ice comparison tool showing the number of Ice Free Days in a year and the anomaly compared to the long term baseline of 1979-2018.
https://cryospherecomputing.tk/IceFreeDays
During this 6-week campaign, IceBridge expects to complete about 24 flights in total, 11 of which are of the highest priority and are repeated every year to gauge annual changes in elevation of land and sea ice. This year, following the launch of ICESat-2, IceBridge will not only attempt a few new targets but many of the longest-running surveys have also been tweaked to underfly the satellite directly wherever possible.
"The Arctic system is trending away from its 20th century state and into an unprecedented state, with implications not only within but beyond the Arctic," according to lead author Jason Box of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland in Copenhagen.
To understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”
IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”
IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.
They don't have a word for "nature"
“Leveraging indigenous people’s knowledge to operate up there is critical for us.”
IIRC most Indigenous people's of the world suggest caring for the each other & the planet, address GHG emissions, and also highly recommend to stop the war mongering and abolish all nuclear weapons.
US Climate Change Refusal Sinks Arctic Declaration
https://phys.org/news/2019-05-climate-arctic-declaration.html
Members of the Arctic Council meeting in Finland's far north on Tuesday failed to issue their traditional final declaration due to a US refusal to mention climate change, delegates said
... Notably, in a speech in Rovaniemi on the eve of the council meeting, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo did not mention "climate change" once, even though, according to scientists, global warming is progressing twice as fast in the Arctic as in the rest of the world.
whoi's new gliderThanks for the article. It's really interesting, and the video there supports that article. I started to read a lot of literature about the Arctic and its current condition in recent time, so I'm trying to collect valuable materials.QuoteTo understand just how thin the ice cover has become, WHOI scientists are developing a new autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) that will measure ice thickness from below the surface for thousands of miles at a time, all with the power draw of a cell phone.https://www.whoi.edu/news-insights/content/navigating-the-changing-arctic/
RE Tealight #348
Nice work! That would be great addition to NSIDC website.
... "The latest research on this topic suggests that declining Arctic sea ice may be linked to increased incidence of extreme weather patterns across the northern hemisphere," said Dagmar Budikova, a climatologist at Illinois State University in Normal and lead author of the new study. "Our results confirm this hypothesis by offering further evidence that Arctic sea ice variability has the potential to influence extreme summer temperatures and the frequency of heat waves across the southern U.S."
Depending on how the ice is formed, it can be permeable and elastic, with space inside that can be colonised by bacteria, fungal spores and the tiny creatures that feed on them such as the transparent jellyfish Sympagohydra tuuli, which squeezes inside the cracks in the ice to hunt for food.
these scientists and several hundred others will launch the largest Arctic research expedition in history: a 12-month, $134 million, 17-nation effort to document climate change in the fastest-warming part of the globe.
No SciHub for the WaPo. I'm blocked, More details please on the 12 month expedition or alternate sources
Rick Thoman (@AlaskaWx) 7/21/19, 9:43 PMhttps://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1153118308083703808
The Chukchi Sea offshore of Utqiaġvik has been largely #seaice free since early June and July is sure to have 0% ice coverage. The change in July extent since the 1990s is astounding. Sunday PM photo courtesy @IARC_Alaska. #akwx #Arctic
“I feel like I’m one of the first cosmonauts going into space,” said Vladimir Irminku, one of the chief engineers of the Akademik Lomonosov, as he stood on the deck of the giant, box-like platform on a chilly summer morning at Kola Bay in the Barents Sea.
Russia is planning to dispatch the vessel, its first floating nuclear power station, on a 4,000-mile journey along the Northern Sea Route, in a milestone for the country’s growing use of nuclear power in its plans for Arctic expansion.
If all goes to plan, the Akademik Lomonosov will be towed to the Arctic port of Pevek this month, where it will use its twin nuclear reactors to provide heat and energy to homes and support mining and drilling operations in Russia’s mineral-rich Chukotka region.
Russia claims the project will provide clean energy to the remote region and allow authorities to retire an ageing nuclear plant and a coal-burning power station.
But the Akademik Lomonosov has raised safety concerns among environmental groups, including accusations from Greenpeace that it could be a “floating Chernobyl”, and doubts about whether floating nuclear power stations meant to provide power to remote regions are economically viable.
The Northern Sea Route – shipping lanes opened by melting ice sheets in the Arctic – presents new trade routes between China and Europe that Russia hopes to make navigable year-round.
The prospect of lucrative trade routes, as well as the region’s military importance, has led to a proliferation of nuclear-powered icebreakers, submarines and other high-tech nuclear technologies in the Arctic region.
Thomas Nilsen, the editor of the Barents Observer newspaper, based in the Norwegian town of Kirkenes, has estimated that by 2035, the Russian Arctic “will by far be the most nuclearised waters on the planet”.
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.
It seems the Arctic could have the greatest concentration of nuclear power in the world.
"nuclearized waters"
So that means: radiation > water glows in the dark > no more dark winter in the arctic > perennialBOEGOE imminent!
8)
Abstract
Observations show that reduced regional sea-ice cover is coincident with cold mid-latitude winters on interannual timescales. However, it remains unclear whether these observed links are causal, and model experiments suggest that they might not be. Here we apply two independent approaches to infer causality from observations and climate models and to reconcile these sources of data. Models capture the observed correlations between reduced sea ice and cold mid-latitude winters, but only when reduced sea ice coincides with anomalous heat transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean, implying that the atmosphere is driving the loss. Causal inference from the physics-based approach is corroborated by a lead–lag analysis, showing that circulation-driven temperature anomalies precede, but do not follow, reduced sea ice. Furthermore, no mid-latitude cooling is found in modelling experiments with imposed future sea-ice loss. Our results show robust support for anomalous atmospheric circulation simultaneously driving cold mid-latitude winters and mild Arctic conditions, and reduced sea ice having a minimal influence on severe mid-latitude winters.
this new study suggests that reduced sea ice is not the main cause of the cold winters. Instead, the cold winters are likely caused by random fluctuations in the atmospheric circulation
These papers seem to contradict one another... and yet there is no way for me to determine which one is correct... frustrating.
binntho, I see a large cold blob in the north atlantic between France and Canada. Maybe it moved south? Too simple explanation?Yes, one might be tempted to think so, but parts of the oceans are cold and parts are warm, and they keep shifting around. The "cold blob" was so interesting because it just stayed there for years on end.
Russia Bans Norway's Hurtigruten Cruise Ships From Entering Its Arctic WatersI would not discard that it is a immediate response to Trump's intention of buying Greenland. A lot of "fossil fuel money" on the Arctic and seems that the governments don't care that we can suffer an abrupt climate change in the mean time.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2019/08/17/russia-bans-norways-hurtigruten-cruise-ships-from-entering-arctic-waters/amp/
The Next Chernobyl Could Be at Seahttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-16/russia-china-are-leading-push-for-floating-nuclear-power-plants (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-08-16/russia-china-are-leading-push-for-floating-nuclear-power-plants)
Later this month, a flotilla of tugboats will leave Murmansk, a port in Russia's northwest, towing the Akademik Lomonosov, a floating nuclear power plant. The ships will travel 3,700 miles east to Pavek, a remote port in Russia's northeast. There the plant's two small reactors will power homes, as well as mining and drilling operations.
TV2 reports that the Norwegian ship partly sailed in a path in the ice made by a Russian icebreaker. Sailing with tourists to the North Pole, the nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 let Pobedy has been to the top of the world five times this summer.
a probably silly question:
Who is responsible for that signpost the two skippers are standing at?
Because currents move the ice around in the Arctic Ocean it will move as well and not be located at the exact polar position. And what if the ice melted,? The signpost will drown.
Or does any crew heading for the North Pole carry a signpost like this with them for photographic purposes?
Where do you buy tickets?
a probably silly question:
Who is responsible for that signpost the two skippers are standing at?
Because currents move the ice around in the Arctic Ocean it will move as well and not be located at the exact polar position. And what if the ice melted,? The signpost will drown.
Or does any crew heading for the North Pole carry a signpost like this with them for photographic purposes?
This is just my wild ass guess, but I think it is just something people going to the NP can bring with them for novelty photos.
I could be wrong, of course.
Santa Claus maintains the sign. (duh!) ::)
Modeling of physical mechanisms for ice mass loss from marine and marine-terminating glaciers is a complex matter; which consensus climate model not yet adequately address, as illustrated by the linked reference which studied observations of marine-terminating glaciers in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago to find that atmospheric forcing has dominated the observed image mass loss. To me the difficulties in modeling marine and marine-terminating glacial ice mass loss represents a significant risk to society with continued global warming.
Alison J. Cook et al. (13 Mar 2019), "Atmospheric forcing of rapid marine-terminating glacier retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago", Science Advances, Vol. 5, no. 3, eaau8507, DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau8507
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/5/3/eaau8507.full
Abstract: "The Canadian Arctic Archipelago contains >300 glaciers that terminate in the ocean, but little is known about changes in their frontal positions in response to recent changes in the ocean-climate system. Here, we examine changes in glacier frontal positions since the 1950s and investigate the relative influence of oceanic temperature versus atmospheric temperature. Over 94% of glaciers retreated between 1958 and 2015, with a region-wide trend of gradual retreat before ~2000, followed by a fivefold increase in retreat rates up to 2015. Retreat patterns show no correlation with changes in subsurface ocean temperatures, in clear contrast to the dominance of ocean forcing in western Greenland and elsewhere. Rather, significant correlations with surface melt indicate that increased atmospheric temperature has been the primary driver of the acceleration in marine-terminating glacier frontal retreat in this region."
Extract: "It is now widely acknowledged that ocean temperature increase has been the dominant driver of glacier retreat in other polar regions in recent years, particularly along the western Antarctic Peninsula, around the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and in western Greenland. In contrast, we show that, in the CAA, the substantial rise in atmospheric temperature in the 21st century has outweighed any regional impact of changing ocean temperature on marine-terminating glacier frontal behavior. It follows that ocean temperature cannot be assumed to be the primary driver of marine-terminating glacier retreat in all polar regions and that studies of local processes are needed to understand the impacts of climate change on glacier behavior."
Researchers from more than a dozen nations launched Friday the biggest and most complex expedition ever attempted in the central Arctic — a yearlong journey through the ice they hope will improve the scientific models that underpin our understanding of climate change.
The 140-million euro ($158 million Cdn) expedition will see scientists from 19 countries including Germany, the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China work together in one of the most inhospitable regions of the planet.
Scientists set sail on yearlong expedition to Arctic centre
Tiny glass beads might seem an unlikely hero in the fight against climate change, but they may end up playing an outsize role in tackling one of the natural world’s most dire predicaments. A group of researchers have found that millions of these spheres spread in a layer across swaths of Arctic ice reflects sunlight and helps keep the ice frozen.and more on:
...
Field calls her idea “an embarrassingly simple concept.” Warmer temperatures have reduced the bright white multiyear ice (essentially thicker, stiffer ice) in the Arctic, and the resulting loss in light reflectivity leads to heating and further ice melt. “I just asked myself a very simple question: Is there a safe material that could help replace that lost reflectivity?” Field says. The answer, her team found, was to add a very thin layer of hollow glass spheres made of silica, the main component of most rocks, that reflect light and “make very thin ice look a lot more like multi-year ice.”
...
Last year, the team covered almost 18,000 square yards on lake ice in Utqiagvik (previously Barrow), Alaska, for pilot tests. While they work on permitting with the Environmental Protection Agency for testing on sea ice, they are collaborating with NASA on modeling.
The results so far are encouraging. In May 2018, the team published a peer-reviewed paper in the American Geophysical Union’s Earth’s Future journal, revealing the results and projections of their initial pilot testing. In one field test, the material increased reflectivity by 15 to 20 percent. Their models have predicted the beads could significantly stop ice decline and even reverse it. Simulations showed a potential 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature reduction over a large part of the Arctic, a 3-degree sea temperature reduction in some areas, and an increase in sea ice thickness of up to 20 inches.
The Scottish government published its first Arctic Policy Framework on 23 September 2019. On that occasion Scotland´s External Affairs Secretary said, “Scotland has the expertise and vision to serve as a link between the Arctic region and the wider world with opportunities to help tackle issues such as sustainable tourism, renewable energy and climate change.”
The news Arctic Connections on the Scottish Government webpage claim that 27.5% of Scotland´s overseas exports in the year 2017 is related to trading with countries that have territories in the Arctic and that these major trading partners are also the origin of nearly half of all foreign direct investments in Scotland. It continues with stating that “The framework sets ambitions for Scotland across the Arctic while encouraging academia, civic society and government organisations to have a greater level of collaboration with international counterparts.”
Sorry, only in German and French available. :(No sorryness. Both languages fit well to me ;)
Crazy spike, s'gotta be 13 or14C above average. :o
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fplots%2FmeanTarchive%2FmeanT_2019.png&hash=125e4b570a7f4c5c6a7b2b6c2b5319be)
the Chukchi and Arctic oceans"oceans?
... this finding has implications for the projection of future climate change. Climate models simulating more Arctic sea ice loss in response to the mid-Holocene insolation generally exhibit higher sensitivities to an increased CO2 concentration (38). Therefore, our results suggest that the projected Arctic sea ice decline will likely to be faster than the multimodel ensemble mean prediction.
State experts approve VostokCoal’s plans to export millions of tons of black rocks from the Taymyr Peninsula, but the grand project might not materialize.
... Kangerlussuaq Airport will be closed to commercial airlines ... due to shorter runways from rapidly melting permafrost. ...
Greenland’s airports are one of the many cases where rapid thawing permafrost will alter the lives of those in the Arctic. Recent studies on permafrost decline confirm that 70 percent of the Arctic’s roads, buildings, and airports have a high potential to be affected by thawing ground over the next 30 years. The effects of permafrost melt are not limited to road and housing infrastructure but also affect prospective developments in Russia’s Yamal region and Alaska’s Trans Alaska Pipeline.
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.Why?
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.Why?
I'm asking for a friend ... wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects? But I guess nobody knows what will happen, and it's not going to flip all of a sudden as far as I understand it. More of a very slow (frum a human viewpoint) transition lasting some thousands of years.I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.Why?
Why not? Let's see what happens. :)
wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?
As I understand it the Earth's magnetic field protects us, and our satellites, from a lot of solar nasties. A large reduction in the strength of that field would likely also mean the solar wind would cause a decay in the orbits of satellites.wasn't there some talk of sharply increasing space radiation with an increase in cancer rates as well as birth defects?
I bet there was! For how i understand it, it's not correct.
The Earth's magnetic field serves to deflect most of the solar wind, whose charged particles would otherwise strip away the ozone layer that protects the Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.
Earth's magnetic field - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Earth's_magnetic_field
I'm hoping the magnetic poles reverse.Why?
IIRC, you would need the equivalent of weather forecasts to figure out where the poles will be in a week
Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!Possibly related observation about 2012 -
Ok, here's a very random observation. I have a solar array on my house and was just playing around with some of my output data. The array has been in place since 2011. I just noticed that the first four months of 2012 are all the highest output for that month in the 9 year record. That is, January 2012 output was the highest of any of 9 Januaries since I had the array, February was the highest February, March was the highest March, and April was the highest April. And the difference is not even close. Here at 39.29° N, 76.61° W winter/early spring 2012 was VERY, unusually sunny. Probably nothing, but struck me as interesting, given what happened in 2012!I'd be careful to assume that the amount of solar energy available was the cause here. Solar arrays do degrade with time, and they do become dirty. So unless proven wrong, I'd assume that this is what you are seeing - solar cell degradation, not fall in solar energy.
Solar cell degradation is much slower than that, something like 1% per year. But it is possible that they got dirty (lots of dust around maybe?) Do you clean your cells regularly? Dirt could explain it
No, Bintho, I'm pretty good with data and look closely at my output. I have microinverters so I can look at per panel output in 5 minute increments. One way I look at degradation is to look at peak panel production and I have noticed very little degradation at all. I'll post how big this outlier was when I get a chance, but it was big. It was VERY sunny (not very cloudy!) in Bawlmer in winter/spring 2012. Sunny enough that I think it says something real about the winter storm track, prevailing winds and weather pattern during that time.Well, yes, degradation is probably less than 1% per year. And when it is VERY sunny, changes in cloud cover would be presumably be the direct cause! What the ultimate cause may be I leave to others to ponder.
Typical URL containing a query string is as follows:
http://example.com/over/there?name=ferret
When a server receives a request for such a page, it may run a program, passing the query string, which in this case is, name=ferret unchanged, to the program. The question mark is used as a separator, and is not part of the query string.
Interesting article on the effects that the changes in Arctic sea ice cover may be having on tropical weather systems.
Turns out that even if El Ninos do not effect the sea ice, less sea ice may effect the specific location of El Ninos which again has a domino effect on other weather patterns.
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26012020/arctic-sea-ice-melting-tropical-weather-el-nino-climate-change?fbclid=IwAR0KN0oBsTrcQexueQkPcGt6yoLahuwv1YVrMTCB8eXqgtLgGCgLVVvbiKc
Please edit links down to their normal format:My bad, being lazy and quite likely pre-senile as well. But I'll strive for improvement!
M 5.0 - 228km E of Nord Greenland
Time 2020-02-09 13:32:53 (UTC)
Location 81.246°N 4.301°W
Depth 10.0 km
“Anthropogenic methane emissions currently are larger than wetland emissions by a factor of about two, and our data show that we don’t need to be as concerned about large methane releases from old carbon reservoirs in response to future warming,” said Petrenko. “Instead we should be more concerned about the methane that is being released from human activities now.”
Does anyone know of any research or theory about how far this can go until the warmer water "flips" with the cold and rises to the surface? It feels like the system has to reach a point where it becomes unstable and the warmer water comes to the top.
Data from the past five years show that the Barents waters have became colder and more icy.
Seafloor Discovery Shows The Ocean's Undergoing a Change Not Seen in 10,000 Years
Changes in ocean circulation may have caused a shift in Atlantic Ocean ecosystems not seen for the past 10,000 years, new analysis of deep-sea fossils has revealed.
How much faster is the #Arctic warming than the global average? Locally up to 5 times faster, but in general 3-4 times.
If using only the past 30-year trends, the warming rate is higher and reaches locally up to 7 times! (Note the different color scale).
Was interested in different datasets when I saw @ClimateofGavin tweet - seems to be similar or even enhanced (ratio up to 5.75) in Cowtan and Way using their Kriging (preliminary plot, apologies for projection :))
The Vavilov Ice Cap thinned by a total of a few meters, advanced about 2 km, and lost about 1.2 km3 in total volume into the ocean in the 30 years before the speedup. In the one year between 2015 and 2016, the ice advanced about 4 kilometers and thinned by about 100 meters (~0.3 m per day). The ice cap lost about 4.5 km3 of ice, enough to cover Manhattan with about 250 feet of water, or the entire state of Washington with an inch. And it's unlikely the ice cap will ever be able to recover ice mass in today's warming climate, the paper states.
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.
Satellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)
The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.
The NSIDc and JAXA instruments are well beyond their design life and as yet no announcemets of compatible replacements to mantain the continuous 41 year record.
https://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/satellites/view/752QuoteSatellite: GOSAT-GW (2022 - 2027)
The MW radiometer, AMSR-3, will be a follow-on of AMSR-2 being flown on GCOM-W, with addition of channels at 10.25 GHz, 165.5 GHz and in the 183 GHz band.
And with the original data NSDIC is really nearing completion.
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/888809735830425600
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/13/49/2019/
At least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.
A month after environmental disaster comes another major oil spill on Taymyr tundraQuoteAt least 45 tons of jet fuel leaks into the ground from a pipeline owned and operated by Nornickel.
Link >> https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/ecology/2020/07/month-after-environmental-disaster-comes-another-major-oil-spill-taymyr-tundra
Not quite arctic, I guess, but a 7.8 earthquake is now reported centered just S. of the Aleutians.
On the other hand, strong storms can substantially break up the ice, potentially leaving it more vulnerable to higher temperatures and faster melting later in the season. And they can churn up the ocean, as well, allowing warmer waters to rise to the surface.
It’s all part of the vicious cycle of Arctic climate change. Within just a few decades, scientists predict the Arctic could be seeing totally ice-free summers.
A new analysis from the University of Copenhagen and DMI, among others, shows that the air temperature near the surface of the Arctic Ocean has risen by an average of one degree per decade over the last 40 years.
In some areas it has risen by almost two degrees.
Most scientists agree that the Arctic will be completely free of sea ice in summer during this century.
There is, however, disagreement as to when this will happen. Some climate models show that this will happen in the 2050s. Others point out that it could happen as early as the 2030s.
- But virtually none of the models have foreseen the rapid warming of the Arctic that we are already seeing now. This means that the sea ice can disappear even earlier, says Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen.
He estimates that it is now the early estimates that are most realistic.
- It is problematic if we are too conservative in our estimate for when the sea ice is gone. Because that means we can not react in time, he says.
Steffen fell into a deep crevasse full of water, Swiss media reports say, after snow and ice gave way beneath him while he worked near a weather station. Rescue attempts were unsuccessful, and his body was not found.
RIP Konrad Steffen. I know some will probably find this harsh but being buried in the Greenland ice sheet is actually pretty cool.
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.
The ice in the Arctic has traditionally been protected by the surrounding landmasses, with the "ocean" bearing more resemblance to a frozen desert. But as the area of open water grows, and particularly as it grows earlier in the season, new forces step in and accelerate the downward trend.A year or two ago in a post by A-team I picked up a quote from him about the Arctic Ocean as an icy desert and its change towards an open water ocean. I think it was also to do with a paper on Atlantification of the Barents Sea.
That's when I had the idea to look at open water area instead of ice cover. I also thought thatn looking at it by various periods during the year and by each sea.
I attach some examples - the Barents Sea which is more an open water sea than an ice sea, the Kara & Laptev which are certainly changing, and the icy desert of the Central Arctic Sea - still barely touched for most of the year.
I even wrote it all up - but it needs a complete rewrite.. All I need is several days of peace and quiet to reassemble it.
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?
do you have one for the Greenland Sea?
Yes, but how much can ge gained from it?
________________________________________________________
Note.
As the Greenland Sea has an open water boundary, I use the maximum daily sea ice extent from the satellite record as the physical area of the sea. The percentage of open water is for each period is calculated as follows....
Area of the Sea minus sea ice area = Open water
Open Water divided by Area of the Sea = % Open Water.
Calculate for each day and average for the period being graphed.
Abstract
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades. Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice. Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.
This one is for bbr2314 - and it's open access with figures & graphs galore.
I've added me graph on open water percentages.
It will be a voyage quite out of the ordinary for the crew that on the 18th August sets out from Vladivostok with course for the North. Never before has a sailing ship of this proportion made it across the Arctic route that connects the Asian and European parts of Russia.
The sailing on the Northern Sea Route follows a grand voyage that has taken the “Sedov” more than 25 thousand nautical miles across world seas since 1st November 2019.
“Following a detailed study of possible alternatives for the bark’s continued sailing, we consider it relevant to propose that the “Sedov” completes its expedition with a voyage across the Northern Sea Route from the east to west,” leader of Russia’s Fisheries Agency Ilya Shestyakov said in late July.
“We believe that such a voyage will have a great symbolic and practical effect,” Shestyakov underlined.
The ship is expected to reach reach its home port of Kaliningrad on 15th November this year. On its Arctic expedition, the vessel is due to visit the ports of Pevek, Sabetta and Murmansk. It is also expected to make a halt in the archipelago of Novaya Zemlya.
Careful safety preparations have been made both for the ship and its crew. The ship’s route across the Arctic will proceed in ice-free waters and assistance from special crafts vessels will be available if needed, the Fishery Agency informs.
Until year 2017, the “Sedov” was based in Murmansk and the ship has made several voyages in Arctic waters. But is has never made it across the whole Northern Sea Route. The ship is today operated by the federal Fishery Agency.
Can we track it?
Abstract
North America experienced an intense cold wave with record low temperatures during the winter of 2017/18, at the time reaching the smallest rank of sea ice area (SIA) in the Bering Sea over the past four decades.
Using observations, ocean reanalysis, and atmospheric reanalysis data for 39 winters (1979/80–2017/18), both the Bering SIA loss and cold winters in North America are linked robustly via sea level pressure variations over Alaska detected as a dominant mode, the Alaska Oscillation (ALO). The ALO differs from previously identified atmospheric teleconnection and climate patterns. In the positive ALO, the equatorward cold airflow through the Bering Strait increases, resulting in surface air cooling over the Bering Sea and an increase in Bering SIA, as well as surface warming (about 4 K for the winter mean) for North America in response to a decrease of equatorward cold airflow, and vice versa for negative phase. The northerly winds with the cold air over the Bering Sea result in substantial heat release from ocean to atmosphere over open water just south of the region covered by sea ice.
Heating over the southern part of Bering Sea acts as a positive feedback for the positive ALO and its related large-scale atmospheric circulation in a linear baroclinic model experiment. Bering SIA shows no decreasing trend, but has remained small since 2015. CMIP6 climate models of the SSP5–8.5 scenario project a decrease of Bering SIA in the future climate. To explain severe cold winters in North America under global warming, it is necessary to get an understanding of climate systems with little or no sea ice.[/i]
Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden is roughly 80km long by 20km wide and is the floating front end of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream - where it flows off the land into the ocean to become buoyant.
At its leading edge, the 79N glacier splits in two, with a minor offshoot turning directly north. It's this offshoot, or tributary, called Spalte Glacier, that has now disintegrated.
The opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, geopolitical, environmental, and socioeconomic impacts
Mia M.Bennett, Scott R.Stephenson, KangYang, Michael T.Bravo, Bert De Jonghe
Highlights
• A seasonal ice-free shipping route via the North Pole may open by mid-century.
• The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) is shorter and deeper than the Northern Sea Route.
• Development options include transshipment ports in the Bering and Fram Straits.
• The TSR's environmental and socioeconomic impacts could be locally significant.
• Despite rapid climate change, there is still time to prepare for the TSR's opening.
Abstract
With current scientific models forecasting an ice-free Central Arctic Ocean (CAO) in summer by mid-century and potentially earlier, a direct shipping route via the North Pole connecting markets in Asia, North America, and Europe may soon open. The Transpolar Sea Route (TSR) would represent a third Arctic shipping route in addition to the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage. In response to the continued decline of sea ice thickness and extent and growing recognition within the Arctic and global governance communities of the need to anticipate and regulate commercial activities in the CAO, this paper examines: (i) the latest estimates of the TSR's opening; (ii) scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, addressing the various transportation systems that could evolve; (iii) the geopolitics of the TSR, focusing on international and national regulations and the roles of Russia, a historic power in the Arctic, and China, an emerging one; and (iv) the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of transpolar shipping for local and Indigenous residents of communities along the TSR's entrances. Our analysis seeks to inform national and international policymaking with regard to the TSR because although climate change is proceeding rapidly, within typical policymaking timescales, there is still time to prepare for the emergence of the new Arctic shipping corridor.
Nice catch Juan.The truth is that I read it first in NSIDC Analysis. I have to acknowledge them.
A recent paper by an international group led by political geographer Mia Bennett at the University of Hong Kong discusses the potential impacts of the near-future emergence of a transpolar shipping route as sea ice retreat continues to open a very wide shipping lane along the Eurasian side of the Arctic Ocean (as it has this year). The route would pass over the North Pole as a way of avoiding an extensive Russian exclusive economic zone (EEZ) and still-contended continental shelf claim.http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/suddenly-in-second-place/ (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2020/09/suddenly-in-second-place/)
This emerging transpolar route reflects a fundamentally changed Arctic environment. Another recent paper by researchers Laura Landrum and Marika Holland at the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the Arctic has indeed entered into a “new Arctic climate” state. This new climate is one characterized by warmer temperatures, more open water, less sea ice, more rain, and less snow. In the Arctic, weather that used to be considered extreme is becoming the norm. The summer of 2020 is clearly representative of this new Arctic.
I was listening to a woman on BBC Radio 4 on how she deals with depression.
So if we manage to get CO2e past 750 ppm Antarctica melts to the bedrock and the seas rise 70 meters or more?70 meters will take a long while, but if 3.3 meters floats your boat that can happen at just 650ppm held steady long enough according to a study published yesterday.
Journal article - The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Julius Garbe, Torsten Albrecht, Anders Levermann, Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann
Nature volume 585, pages538–544(2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2727-5)
New (to me) term - "Creep instability" Good fit for the times.