Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Consequences => Topic started by: wili on January 19, 2014, 09:05:59 PM

Title: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 19, 2014, 09:05:59 PM
We may be on the way to a major El Nino event:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Mon.gif&hash=81e85fe59434671dda95f5abc539c5ff)

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)

Meanwhile, there is new info on the likelihood and consequences of more "super-El Nino's" as GW proceeds apace:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976)
[size=150]
Climate Change Could Double Likelihood of Super El Ninos[/size]


Quote
Under greenhouse warming the eastern equatorial Pacific warms faster than the surrounding regions . . . making it easier to have maximum SST (sea surface temperatures) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, and hence more occurrences of extreme El Nino events

(I know that this topic has come up on various threads, but it seemed of great enough potential consequence--globally and for the Arctic--to warrant it's own thread.)
Title: Re: 2013 El Nino?
Post by: Neven on January 19, 2014, 09:18:17 PM
I've heard about that El Niño forecast, but Australia's BOM is of a different opinion (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/):

Quote
Tropical Pacific remains ENSO-neutral

Issued on Tuesday 14 January 2014

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state, with all indicators well within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate this neutral ENSO state is likely to persist into the austral autumn. Some models suggest the central Pacific Ocean may warm during autumn and winter, while others remain near average. However, forecasts that span autumn have lower skill than forecasts at other times of year, and hence long-range model outlooks need to be used with more caution at this time of year. The Bureau will continue to monitor the ENSO state closely as forecasts become more reliable.

ENSO events (El Niño and La Niña) usually follow a typical life cycle. Events usually begin to develop during the austral autumn and winter months, mature during spring and summer, and rapidly weaken by the end of the following autumn.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 19, 2014, 09:22:05 PM
Thanks for including that, Neven. Note the question mark at the end of the (now emended--as usual, I'm living in the past) title.

I've seen different predictions even within NOAA (as noted recently on the blog). This most recent prediction (Jan. 19) showing a significantly stronger event than their prediction from just a few days ago (Jan. 13):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=41.0;attach=4498;image)

(Damn, the crucial part of that graph was cut off. Here's the link--thanks to ASLR, by the way.)
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=41.0;attach=4498;image

How often do the Aussies update that prediction? I wonder if their next one will be more 'bearish.'

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on January 19, 2014, 10:29:06 PM
Well, FWIW I’ve been comparing the initial position in January 2014 to that of 2009, about 5 months before the onset of the last main El Nino event:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FComparisonsst15012009to2014small_zpsdd4dfb0d.jpg&hash=20ccbd8d0b856d8489e73cfe8b9befad)

The yellow area of positive anomaly is much larger now, especially in the centre, the north and southeast Pacific. I drew  a hatch just over the continuous swath; the warmer anomaly near Baja California is larger now, too.
By June ’09, the warm anomalies on the southern line Tonga-Easter Island had shifted into the first signs of El Nino along the equator.

I know looking back doesn’t tell much about what to expect in these days of expanding anomalies. But there are some similarities visible in and around the Pacific Basin between winter ’08-’09 and today. 
China, Eastern Australia and the Western US were experiencing drought then, too. Although present drought is really exceptional in California right now.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Chuck Yokota on January 19, 2014, 11:09:41 PM
Are the NOAA and Australian forecasts really saying different things?  The Australian forecast a neutral ENSO state into austral autumn, and yes, the NOAA ensemble mean stays within the ENSO neutral state past April.  The Australian forecast says some models show warming of the central Pacific during austral autumn and winter, while others remain near average; and yes, the NOAA forcast has some ensemble members moving into El Nino range in June through October, and other members staying near neutral.  Where is there any contradiction?  The Australians are simply declining to place confidence that the ensemble mean is a good forecast tool that far out.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Neven on January 19, 2014, 11:20:04 PM
Thanks, Chuck. I didn't read that attentively.

Wili, BOM updates its ENSO forecast every two weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on January 20, 2014, 12:13:51 AM
NOAA maintains a set of  buoy's that spans the Pacific along the equator. They are designed to monitor surface water dissolved Co2 (pCo2) . There are four years of data and it will be interesting to see how an El Nino affects pCo2.
 
 http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Open+Ocean+Moorings (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/Open+Ocean+Moorings)

A few of the latest CFSv2 model runs are in the +2 range and that would be something like the 82-83 or 97-98 events. The difference being the current PDO cold water phase,82-83 and 97-98 were in a warm water phase. 69 was a strong El Nino with associated rains but it occurred during a cold water PDO .
Either way from a Southern California perspective I say bring it on. Then there have been a couple
" careful what you wish for " warnings lately but there too I'd say bring it on.   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on January 20, 2014, 12:40:30 AM
Wili

From inside your 2nd link on climate change doubling the chance of super El Nino's Trenberth disagrees.  So this might be a bit unsettled yet.  I see that Bruce beat me to the negative PDO comment while I was typing.  I guess I have to speed up  :)  It will be interesting if we actually end up in an El Nino and continue the increasing frequency of El Nino's we have seen over the last 50 years or so.  Or whether we revert to the historical norm of La Nina dominance which often lasts decades.  I believe the projections are for increasing frequency but I am curious about that.  We will see. 

Quote
The core of Cai’s results, that more super El Ninos are likely, was disputed by Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Corporation for Atmospheric Research.

He said some of the models used in the study overestimate the past number of El Nino events by a wide margin and do a poor job of representing them and their impacts.

“This seriously undermines the confidence that the models do an adequate job in ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) simulations and so why should we trust their future projections?” he said in an email.

Trenberth also said that some long-range climate models also fail to adequately simulate other natural climate patterns that influence El Nino let alone how they might also shift in a warming world
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on January 22, 2014, 07:34:20 AM
Dynamic models have been predicting an El Nino 3-6 months in the future for the last year. We haven't even gone above 0.0 ONI. Given their performance for the last year, I remain skeptical of any developing El Nino. Right now I'd predict ENSO neutral through fall, although I would lean on the  slightly positive side of neutral in slight deference to the models.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 22, 2014, 11:33:41 AM
Jim Hansen:
Quote
there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on January 22, 2014, 04:42:14 PM
 Wili,

I think it is fair to say that the Hansen link you provided does not cover any new territory, but is a review of what is known with the goal of providing insight into what has been happening for those being confused by the denier camp.  A worthy goal of course.

It seems pretty certain that this little struggle which was exacerbated by the last decades slowing of the rate of increase will not go away until we actually do have that new record year some are indicating will happen with the next El Nino.  But folks should be careful about pushing the probability of one occurring this year until there is a more stronger forecast I think.  The blowback will be a pain to deal with if it does not happen.

We should keep in mind that Hansen made a prediction like this once before and predicted that 2012 would be the record year because of a coming El Nino (that did not happen).

 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on January 22, 2014, 05:09:42 PM
Jim, I believe the expectation was for an El Niño to make 2013 the record year, not 2012; and 2012 was a La Niña year. That El Niño was never expected to amount to much, anyway. I recall that it was expected to be rather weak, and it never materialized as there was simply too much cool water punching through during autumn 2012 to make it happen. Still, 2013 was quite warm, so that does count for what it was.

I'll agree with you otherwise. Odds of El Niño seem higher this year, if only because models are convinced of one so early in the year, and we're entering a second year of Pacific neutrality, which is usually followed by El Niño. A dud this year would be demoralizing for those who have been waiting for an unmistakable record year to occur, but physics will behave as it well. But we really won't get a firm grasp until, say, May. Though El Niño can develop very furiously and swiftly, as happened in 1997. One day in April, it was La Niña; within days, it was El Niño.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F1997%2Fanomnight.4.7.1997.gif&hash=3f6f81d553c80bd2c3e43843c3ce59dd)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F1997%2Fanomnight.4.25.1997.gif&hash=3644610f8c35b47e850b1e7250b4f274)

If things start really heating up this spring, I'll be in an excited state for the rest of the year.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ritter on January 22, 2014, 05:29:06 PM
I'd really rather a record come in a non el nino year so deniers can't blame the record on el nino.  ;)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Rubikscube on January 22, 2014, 06:25:34 PM
We've now got 43 months without a proper El Niño and no matter what happens, we know it will be a couple more months like this, therefore it is extremly interesting to note that there have been no recorded periods of more than 50 months without El Niño since 1950
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml)
note that in periods of 50 months between 1959-1963 and 1978-1982 there were neither El Niños or La niñas. I therefore feel very confident that we either get a strong El Niño or a "double niño".

The reason why there have been caution in predictions made are because moddels traditionally struggle with the so called "spring barrier", in the period between January and April there are very few physical signs of developing Niños and as a result moddels often differ greatly, change their minds frequently and generally struggle to see what will happen, those interpreting the data consequently restrain themselves to saying there is a 50/50 chance although current data suggests otherwise. This uncertainty can clearly be seen on the current CFS map, where oct 2014 predictions span from -0,2 to more than 3, though, as I said, I still feel confortable of an El niño in 2014. My personal numbers for the 2014/15 winter based purely on speculation around statistical data are as follows; 85% chance of El Niño, 40% of a "2010-or-stronger niño", 10% of a "1998-or-stronger niño" and 5% for La niña.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on January 22, 2014, 09:12:01 PM
DO & Rubic

I must say I agree with ritter, but the main reason I shy away from excitement (if that is the right word) about the possibility is not just that Hansen's earlier call went wrong (that I misremembered the date does not change that) and that hurts the narrative.

I just finished reading a book that had extensive information on the paleo-record of El Nino's (or rather of ENSO either way) and the frequency of El Nino's since 1950 mentioned by Rubic above is anonymous in the record.  The switching back and forth from El Nino's to La Nina's we have seen the last 50 years is not normal when the record is fully looked at and this is mentioned in many papers.  Now this is probably related to AGW and it might, but just might, mean that this volatility is here to stay.  But it also might not.  In the past 1000 years the dominant part of the cycle is La Nina's and some appear to have lasted for over 100 years.  But there have also been periods where it switched more frequently.  Thus my sympathy with ritter's comment.  Even if we do not get an El Nino we are not far from a neutral or La Nina year which would break the record anyway.  And that would have a lot of narrative impact.  I think.  I guess I am just being cautious in my enthusiasm.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: CraigsIsland on January 22, 2014, 09:25:45 PM
Deep Octopus- thanks for the info. I didn't realize a El Niño state could be brought about in a matter of days. Definitely good news as I had assumed it took months of slow buildup. Fingers crossed.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on January 22, 2014, 10:31:33 PM
Craig, not to confuse, but what I meant was not to suggest that ENSO can change (and mature) from one state to the next in a matter of days--only that, in a case like 1997, the sea surface temperatures had been in a La Niña state in the early months of the year, while below the surface, the ocean had been warming up for several weeks. By the end of the month, the cool waters had rapidly subsided, and the warm waters from an eastward propagating Kelvin wave began to dominate. It's clear that in April 1997, that was the point at which the trade winds finally "broke down" and the positive feedback towards El Niño began relentlessly.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Focean_briefing_new%2Fmnth_oisst_heat_u850_pac_eq_xt_1982.gif&hash=26e9841cc14887aeb1b6447faea2f097)

The actual El Niño event did take several months to fully build (beginning April 1997 and peaking in late November 1997): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for)

What is impressive to me was how early things began heating in the eastern Pacific, in late April no less. In the most recent 2009-2010 El Niño, the vital signs of the event were barely present until June 2009. Weak El Niños like 1995 and 2007 had little going on until about September of their respective previous years. I suppose this meant that the earlier maturity of 1997 helped prolong the monster's ability to amplify to the size it did, finally releasing heat to the atmosphere as the seasons changed over to the northern winter of 1997-1998. And I wonder aloud (perhaps pointlessly at this stage) if we may see an early development this year. Who knows.

But Jim, I understand what you're saying, and I suppose my "excitement" is a bit vain, though it's purely from an academic standpoint. It's said that ENSO, as an unforced internal variability, should balance over the long term, and as it's internal, it really has no bearing on the overall trend, and its effectiveness in global warming is how it distributes heat from the ocean to the atmosphere. Of course, when discussing time scales (particularly human ones), one's idea of "long term" differs. If La Niña dominates for 100 years, do we still have similar temperature projections by 2100 compared to if El Niño dominates? Your mileage may vary. I am in the dark there. We are still grasping with just how unique the phenomenon of El Niño actually is against the paleo record. Some of its history (dominance versus absence) is posited to have had to do with orbital forcing and deglaciation, at least in terms of the Holocene. The idea of what is "normal" is slippery to grasp, indeed, especially in climate history when we deal with unimaginably significant variables: atmospheric conditions, plate tectonics and thermohaline circulation, insolation, volcanoes, etc. So many circumstances that scientists translate to our present time with care.

Whether we are entering a period in which one form of ENSO or another is absent or dominant, or just more of the same, the recent literature remains confusing to say the least. On one hand, some have saying the Walker Circulation will strengthen from AGW and that this fuels La Niña; others say a weaker Walker Circulation is still possible; others suggest that a warming western Pacific will result in more frequently intense El Niños. I honestly have no idea, and I agree in a way that no El Niño with a record temperature would be more interesting than having an El Niño with a record. It's certainly more unique and harder to explain than simply "Oh, 2015 was an El Niño, so carry on."

I saw in another thread you were asking about paleo records for El Niño. I'm reading through some to see if they address your question and will try to help you soon as I find something useful. You might seek out some of Mark Cane's work. He has done much on the subject, including its history.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on January 22, 2014, 10:51:44 PM
Jim Hansen:
Quote
there is substantial likelihood of an El Niño beginning in 2014, and as a result a probable record global temperature in 2014 or 2015

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf)

Hansen has 'guaranteed' El Ninos that have never materialized in the past so I would not put too much stock in this.

The subsurface has been very warm for a year and a half now and no El Nino has developed. The trade winds have been relentless. This is common in -PDOs.

Right now the SON trimonthly I'd go with 15% La Nina 55% neutral and 35% El nino (15% of moderate or higher).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 23, 2014, 10:01:28 PM
"Hansen has 'guaranteed' El Ninos..."

Even so, you'll have to forgive me for giving a bit more weight to the judgment of the (now former) top climatologist at NASA than to that of some anonymous dude on a blog (no offense intended--I'm the same kind of anonymous dude).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on January 24, 2014, 06:35:18 AM
I'm not saying take my word. Take that of the CPC or Australian BOM. They have a proven track record with ENSO.

Hansen has very little expertise, if any, in the prediction of ENSO. Yes he's a 'climatologist' but there are many specializations within that. Look at his background.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on January 27, 2014, 06:44:43 PM
By the way, I have come across some disturbing news regarding the decline of buoys out in the tropical Pacific that track the development of El Niño.

Quote
El Niño tracking system in Pacific Ocean faces collapse

The Abbott government says it has no plans to help fund a Pacific Ocean system of buoys monitoring extreme weather patterns that is now facing collapse.

Leading ocean experts, including senior Australian scientists, will gather in California on Tuesday to discuss the "abrupt decline" over the past 18 months of data from an array of deep-water buoys.

Known as the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean Project, or TAO, the array of devices has been funded for about 30 years mostly by the US and Japan.

As revealed by Fairfax Media, vandalism by fishing fleets and cuts in spending on regular maintenance visits have led to a 40 per cent reduction in the flow of information from the buoys. The slide is continuing.

 "The implosion of the TAO is a real tragedy for the oceanographic and climate community," said Mike McPhaden, a principal scientist with the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and former manager of the array.

The TAO, set up after a huge El Nino weather system surprised scientists in 1982-83, delivers critical real-time observation of atmospheric conditions and those of the sea down to 500 metres below the buoys. El Ninos, and their opposite pattern, La Ninas, typically shift rain east or west over the Pacific, often bringing drought or heavy rains to many parts of the world, including Australia.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/el-nino-tracking-system-in-pacific-ocean-faces-collapse-20140127-31iy3.html#ixzz2rcXqVeLd (http://www.smh.com.au/national/el-nino-tracking-system-in-pacific-ocean-faces-collapse-20140127-31iy3.html#ixzz2rcXqVeLd)

and

Quote
El Niño monitoring system in failure mode

Nearly half of the moored buoys in the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array have failed in the last two years, crippling an early-warning system for the warming and cooling events in the eastern equatorial Pacific, known respectively as El Niño and La Niña. Scientists are now collecting data from just 40% of the array.

...

The array's troubles began in 2012, when budget cuts pushed NOAA to retire a ship dedicated to performing the annual servicing that keeps the TAO buoys in working order. According to McPhaden, NOAA's annual budget for the project stood at about US$10‒$12 million before 2012 — a figure that included around $6 million to cover the dedicated ship. In fiscal year 2013, the agency spent $2‒$3 million to charter boats for maintenance runs, but McPhaden says that these operations have not been enough to keep the system going. Meanwhile, although JAMSTEC has thus far kept its portion of the array up and running, it too is under budgetary pressure.

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582 (http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-monitoring-system-in-failure-mode-1.14582)

I can't help but think that the climate change deniers in the governments of the United States and Australia are failing us all by continuously cutting funding to research that would allow continued maintenance and improvements of the buoys. It's also a threat to people's well-being to limit this kind of information. El Niño and La Niña can be vicious to agriculture and have knowingly led to famines, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries when they arrived without warning. And it's costly. Talk about penny-wise, pound-foolish.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 27, 2014, 07:32:36 PM
Thanks, DO. Yes, I've seen those reports. A whole new level of depressing! Not only is an ever-more intense shit storm definitely coming our way, we will be flying into it ever more blindly.

For the meantime, though: El Nino predictions summer are neutral, but for fall they continue to look fairly positive:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf) (esp. pp. 26-27)

The Australian BOM has not updated yet, but it's always good to append their caveat:
"long-range model outlooks need to be used with more caution at this time of year"


Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on January 29, 2014, 07:25:24 PM
BOM now moving toward El Nino predictions for later this year:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)

Quote
...tropical Pacific Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early winter.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 03, 2014, 04:19:08 PM
Gavin Schmidt is also anticipating an El Nino year. " An El Nino trend is likely to develop this year, Gavin Schmidt, deputy director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, said this month."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/el-nino-may-develop-as-most-models-predict-pacific-ocean-warming.html (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/el-nino-may-develop-as-most-models-predict-pacific-ocean-warming.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 03, 2014, 07:40:55 PM
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2014/20140121_Temperature2013.pdf)

Final section concerns the Nino and potential 'Super' but the whole paper is worth a gander I.M.H.O.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 04, 2014, 07:17:24 PM
Thanks for that GW.

NOAA's latest (Feb. 3) continues to show El Nino forming in May-June and strengthening through August-September.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

(p. 27)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 04, 2014, 07:57:13 PM
Page 16 of NOAA's weekly ENSO report is most interesting to me. Present cooling in the central Pacific can be attributed to a cold Kelvin wave phase that will reach the eastern Pacific by March (this is supported by Nino 1+2 models as well.)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino12Mon.gif&hash=c43ad00d9dc6cdf87142740523b0074c)

The action to watch right now will be that warm Kelvin wave pushing off the western Pacific (around 140 E to 175 W), which will probably reach the central/eastern Pacific by mid or late April. This would be about the point when the spring barrier is being lifted and we'll have more clarity on the direction of things. Page 17 also shows this same Kelvin wave and the huge westerlies its producing. These were also the same westerlies that BOM was referring to in its last update.

Quote
While most ENSO indicators are neutral, strong westerly winds currently over the far western tropical Pacific may lead to some warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean in the coming weeks.

Any slackening of trade winds by the end of April or early May as a result of warm Kelvin waves pushing east would be very good tinder for an El Niño.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on February 04, 2014, 11:42:21 PM
You are right, Deep Octopus!
These anomalous westerlies near Fiji and Samoa caught my attention too. I don't have much knowledge to suggest this is really important. But your analysis seems convincing that 'something' is brewing.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on February 06, 2014, 04:45:47 PM
9th Jan
Quote
ENSO-neutral is expected to continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014.

has changed to 6th Feb version:

Quote
ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014.

Maybe reflects more chance of early summer transition to el nino.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=3ba1ae7533e10661c1998f089a740ad3)

has a few models staying below 0.5. All bar just 1 model moves to and stays positive.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 09, 2014, 01:00:20 PM
http://i.imgur.com/VB24wvf.gif (http://i.imgur.com/VB24wvf.gif)

Looking more like a super as the weeks pass by?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on February 10, 2014, 06:02:45 PM
Grey-Wolf

Did you note that crandles chart post dates yours?  Thus the trends of the models is less rather than more positive on the indice., though the two charts are only 2 days apart. 

Everyone seems to be getting very excited, but we are a long way out still.  Anything can still happen.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 10, 2014, 06:49:03 PM
I maintain that the most interesting point this year will begin around May. No doubt that, in February, it's quite early by and large. That's not to say that nothing that happens now doesn't matter. One can go back in time to read NOAA's notes back in 1997, when signs of El Niño were witnessed in late February and early March of that year.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/1997.html (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/1997.html)

That's why I'm still watching these occurrences. But things do reach critical mass the further into the year we go. As far as super El Niño, we'll have to see if we even get an El Niño at all first. We would probably have to see Niño 3.4 explode to 2 degrees C by next fall to get anything super. I don't see it yet, even in the models as far out as October. It could happen though. We'll see. The fairest points I can make so far are that: currently, the central/eastern Pacific has below average temperatures, likely because of the upwelling Kelvin wave in the east. So ENSO is on the cool side of neutral. Going foward, when it matters (as in, weeks and months ahead), we see a lot of potential.

Sort of like spectating Arctic sea ice, I'm curious from an educational standpoint just how things will unfold this year, since there is a lot of fuzz about this possibly happening. For the purposes of spectating, there are some observable events taking place that are consistent with the future development of El Niño. The two factors I'm watching are trade winds and subsurface ocean temperatures. Since a week ago, the trade winds along the equator have been broadly weaker. All along the equatorial Pacific, trades have been more westerly at the 850 hPa level. They are now moving in a more orchestrated ensemble, as though a single entity pushing winds more to the east. Will it keep up?

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mQAnyuE_DYU/UvkKidBkH7I/AAAAAAAAARA/InH_ph_1ie0/w888-h687-no/compday.jQQgJsACXV.gif)

Some very warm water (around 4-5 degrees C above average) can be associated with the new warm Kelvin wave that's now progressing eastward. So, there is a lot of fuel lurking beneath.

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-2S1fI_dZvbc/UvkLWLsIZvI/AAAAAAAAARc/LkXYPGO19xs/w526-h474-no/pent.anom.xz.temp.0n.1.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 11, 2014, 01:32:32 AM
Now this:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-sounds-el-nino-alarm-for-2014-17052 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/study-sounds-el-nino-alarm-for-2014-17052)

Study Sounds ‘El Niño Alarm’ For Late This Year


Quote
While the forecast models in use today tend to rely on observations of the ocean conditions and trade winds that generally blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, the new method relies on an index that compares surface air temperatures in the area where El Niño events typically occur with temperatures across the rest of the Pacific.

The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 11, 2014, 12:01:53 PM
Quote
The researchers found that a strong link between air temperatures across the Pacific and air temperatures in region where El Niño forms appears about one calendar year before an actual El Niño event. Taking advantage of this observation, the scientists devised a forecasting index based on the strength of the links between temperatures in and around the El Niño region. This index, the study said, points to a high likelihood of an upcoming El Niño late in 2014.

13/15 (16) succesful predictions is pretty well (fig 2. in the article)(13% error in hits, 1 in 8 or 9), also notable that they missed only 4/18 nino episodes (22%), so there could also be another mechanism for developing el nino. I'm in a pretty firm belief their network of climate (weather) used in calculating the forecast could be smaller but yes it's good to be thourough. Very interesting paper.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on February 11, 2014, 08:26:11 PM
I guess this fits here.

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Abstract
Quote
Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 12, 2014, 01:27:53 AM
I guess this fits here.

Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus

Abstract
Quote
Despite ongoing increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases, the Earth’s global average surface air temperature has remained more or less steady since 2001. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to account for this slowdown in surface warming. A key component of the global hiatus that has been identified is cool eastern Pacific sea surface temperature, but it is unclear how the ocean has remained relatively cool there in spite of ongoing increases in radiative forcing. Here we show that a pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades—unprecedented in observations/reanalysis data and not captured by climate models—is sufficient to account for the cooling of the tropical Pacific and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake. The extra uptake has come about through increased subduction in the Pacific shallow overturning cells, enhancing heat convergence in the equatorial thermocline. At the same time, the accelerated trade winds have increased equatorial upwelling in the central and eastern Pacific, lowering sea surface temperature there, which drives further cooling in other regions. The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012 global average surface air temperature of 0.1–0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming observed since 2001. This hiatus could persist for much of the present decade if the trade wind trends continue, however rapid warming is expected to resume once the anomalous wind trends abate.

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2106.html)

They mention the changes in the trade winds but give no explanation. Could these strengthening trade winds be a result of AGW and, if so, could the increased equatorial upwelling and cooling of the central and eastern Pacific  make it more difficult for an El Nino to form?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 12, 2014, 02:12:08 AM
Those are the questions I posed at SkS's post on this article,  and other agreed that those were the questions that they had. But I haven't gotten any official response yet. One article mentioned that warming of the Indian Ocean may contribute to strengthening these winds, but there didn't seem to be much conviction behind that theory. It would be nice to know what drives them, so we might know how and when they may stop.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on February 13, 2014, 03:44:53 PM
As I said before the CFSv2 pointed to an El Nino most of last year (all members positive often) and we stayed negative most of the year. It's not so reliable.

The -PDO may have something to do with it.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 15, 2014, 12:30:39 PM
There's been a big warm up in the Nino 4 and 3.4 region over the past few days.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBEsMZtR.gif&hash=109509a20b3d7939b47fb2cc554a8fb7)

Normal variation or the start of a change? Something to keep an eye on over the next while methinks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Gray-Wolf on February 15, 2014, 01:20:09 PM
Hi BFTV!

Maybe this is a response to the 'Pineapple express' of last weekend? The High over the N.Pacific gave way ( a bit) to allow the rain in and so the winds on it's souther flank died light. Those winds must have been augmenting the trades which were pinning the warm bulge back?

Maybe we should see the extension of warm fade as the winds build back up and pin the waters back to the east again?

If we see this then I suggest we keep mindful of the H.P. 'altering' as the ITCZ moves north this spring?

98's Nino took 3 weeks to go from neutral to full blown Nino so it wouldn't take a long break in the trades to have the 'dam' break.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 16, 2014, 12:23:11 PM
The PDO for January 2014 is +0.3, making it the most positive since May 2010.
I wonder if this will weaken the dampening effect, allowing a brief El Nino, like during the last +ve PDO spell between Autumn 2009 and Spring 2010?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FidtHxgE.jpg&hash=91e7010b19abcf53488e255744bcff3a)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 17, 2014, 06:21:44 AM
Sorry to sound like a stuck record, but SkS picked up on CC's El Nino story, so another group of thoughtful scientists and journalists that thought it was worth highlighting??
http://www.skepticalscience.com/2014-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_7.html (http://www.skepticalscience.com/2014-SkS-Weekly-News-Roundup_7.html)

It will be interesting to see what tomorrow's NOAA report shows.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 18, 2014, 05:58:19 PM
And here it is:

Latest NOAA forecast is out, and it says...

Quote
models predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater or equal to
+0.5ºC) during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014
(p. 26)

Quote
...El Niño starting in May-July 2014
(p. 27)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

Probably too late to send much rain to the parched West this year, though. What might the effects be elsewhere, especially if this thing grows into a major one?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ritter on February 18, 2014, 06:05:34 PM
I can't read this thread without a little Chris Farley voice in my head:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblog.chron.com%2Fsciguy%2Ffiles%2Flegacy%2Farchives%2Fthenino.jpg&hash=b515d2293ab5ccec0ef142ae7d050d1a)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on February 18, 2014, 06:07:58 PM
That update on page 26 refers to the mid January model runs, so only the updated CFS to go by.

Looks like a pretty strong eastweard kelvin wave developing though, which may take us toward neutral over the next few weeks anyway.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F5pxOINc.jpg&hash=7eabe83ec45e900836c9bb8c8f3494fa)

There's been quite a warm up over the last week or so, especially across the ENSO 4 and 3.4 regions.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FT4HgZTe.gif&hash=a8e34ff33b59a1c35fe7a537b7ec9753)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 18, 2014, 07:10:13 PM
The strength of the subsurface temperature anomalies continues to expand. This is a powerful Kelvin wave.

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/--sL9xneznhU/UwOfndS5OkI/AAAAAAAAAR4/MJ9onLX8Of0/w526-h474-no/pent.anom.xz.temp.0n.1-02122014.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 19, 2014, 08:05:08 PM
For those who want to learn about the theory behind the ENSO, and the positive feedback between Kelvin Waves and an El Nino event, I can recommend reading the summary at the following link:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/theory/index.html (http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/theory/index.html)

Perhaps the reflection of the strong Kelvin Wave that deep octopus cited, might result in a positive feedback leading to a strong El Nino event by the end of 2014 (or the beginning of 2015).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2014, 08:28:11 PM
For some reason the link from my prior post about a coupled response & ENSO, now leads to an updated Columbia University website, but the old link said that it takes about 70-days for a Kelvin Wave to cross the Pacific from west to east, which then results in a Rossby Wave that takes about 210 days to cross the Pacific from east to west; which then could serve as a positive feedback for an El Nino event (assuming that the trade winds have died down by then).

Also, the attached figure posted at the following Columbia University website, indicates that an El Nino event in the fall of 2014 is increasingly likely:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-february-quick-look/ (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-february-quick-look/)

See also regular updates on ENSO from Columbia University at:

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/ (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on February 20, 2014, 09:13:06 PM
Isn't it interesting to look at the far right hand side of ALSR's last graph and notice that the probability of an El Nino, La Nina or Neutral is almost exactly the same?

The probability of an El Nino today is about 29% and only rises to about 35% by SON.

The chance for a La Nina then is only about 2% lower than now.

Perhaps this is not the best graph to be making a case that the odds of an El Nino happening are going way up?  Or am I missing something in that graph?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 20, 2014, 09:59:28 PM
Jim,

The legend on the chart distinguishes that the bars represent the probabilities for the future, and the line curves are climatological averages. So, in this case, the bars are indicating that it is a better than likely chance, especially from what is expected from climatology, that either El Niño or neutral conditions will prevail. There is less than 10% chance of La Niña by autumn.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2014, 11:19:44 PM
Jim,

To expand on deep octopus's explanation, per the CPC/IRI Consensus forecast: (a) the Climatological Probability curves indicate that in a typical SON period the probability of experiencing an El Nino or a La Nino, or a Neutral condition are all very close to 33.3% probability; and (b) the bars indicate that for SON of 2014, the probabilities are about: (i) El Nino: 49%; (ii) La Nina: 7%; and (iii) Neutral condition: 44%.

You might note that this 49% probability of an El Nino in SON 2014 is less than the 2014 PNAS article that cited a 76% probability of an El Nino starting sometime in 2014.  However, the CPC/IRI Consensus forecast does not accumulate probabilities over an entire year, and the Nino3.4 SST anomaly is only one measure of an El Nino event.

I also note that the figure, about the CFSv2 forecast Nino3.4 SST anomalies, that wili posted at the beginning of this thread, updates daily, and that currently (Feb 20, 2014) it is in general agreement with the CPC/IRI Nino3.4 SST anomaly forecast from early February 2014.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 20, 2014, 11:49:45 PM
The authors of the linked reference are looking into the future with the help of computer climate models, to study how El Niño Taimasa will change with further warming of the planet. Their analyses show, moreover, that sea-level drops could be predictable seasons ahead, which may help island communities prepare for the next El Niño Taimasa.  While this local Taimasa effect may not be significant to the rest of the world, the fact that the authors think that this effect could be predicable seasons ahead of a very strong El Nino is very important to all of us:

Widlansky, M.J., A. Timmermann, S. McGregor, M.F. Stuecker, and W. Cai, 2014: An interhemispheric tropical sea level seesaw due to El Niño Taimasa. J. Climate, 27 (3), 1070-1081, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1


http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00276.1)


Abstract: "During strong El Niño events, sea level drops around some tropical western Pacific islands by up to 20–30 cm. Such events (referred to as taimasa in Samoa) expose shallow reefs, thereby causing severe damage to associated coral ecosystems and contributing to the formation of microatolls. During the termination of strong El Niño events, a southward movement of weak trade winds and the development of an anomalous anticyclone in the Philippine Sea are shown to force an interhemispheric sea level seesaw in the tropical Pacific that enhances and prolongs extreme low sea levels in the southwestern Pacific. Spectral features, in addition to wind-forced linear shallow water ocean model experiments, identify a nonlinear interaction between El Niño and the annual cycle as the main cause of these sea level anomalies."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on February 21, 2014, 04:35:24 AM
DO & AASLR

Ahh!  Thanks.  I let that one get right by me.  Have to read more carefully.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 02:11:52 AM
At the following link, Jeff Masters' guest: Dr. Michael Ventrice, provides an excellent explanation of why an El Nino (possibly a Super El Nino, see the attached image of the 1997-1998 Super El Nino) may be coming in 2014 (possibly beginning as early as June).  Ventrice states:

"The current Kelvin wave in the Pacific Ocean has achieved the same strength as the one that preceded the 1997 Super El Niño event. This is an extremely rare feat but there still has to be a number of things to happen before we can say we are headed towards a strong El Niño. We need to see the continuation of strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific to keep the momentum forward."

and

"BOTTOM LINE: The Pacific Ocean is now in a state that could reconstruct the base state of the Pacific, favoring an El Niño to develop later this Spring. That being said, it’s not a locked in solution yet as we need to monitor the atmosphere for future westerly wind bursts to help push the Western Pacific Warm Pool along. Thanks go to NOAA for providing the majority of the images used in this post."


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2635 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2635)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 05:41:27 AM
The attached image from early Feb 19 2014 to early Feb 22 2014 seems to show that the strong westerly winds near the Equator over the Central Pacific has been continuing strong since the time of Dr Ventrice's post:

You need to click on the image to make it move!
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 12:46:41 PM
While meteorology is not my forte; nevertheless, the attached image of a NOAA surface pressure forecast for the North Pacific through Feb 25 2014 shows a low pressure system (969) centered between 40N and 50N at 150W; which I imagine might help to continue the gale force westerly winds near the equator from the Western Pacific into the Eastern Pacific by the end of March if it were to turn into a typhoon (or possibly this system is too far north to have an impact on the equatorial winds).  Who knows what will happen after that.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 01:08:59 PM
The linked earth wind map of the current surface winds shows the equatorial westerlies currently (Feb 22 2014) in the Western Pacific:


http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303)




Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 22, 2014, 02:39:18 PM
I believe that low in the North Pacific corresponds with the Aleutians low. The CCW winds it forces is associated with warm phase PDO, which favors El Niño generally. At 969 mb, that's quite a strong low.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 05:03:37 PM
deep octopus,

The reason that I cited the 969 mb low between 40N & 50N at 150W (which likely corresponds to the Aleutians low), is because Dr Ventrice's article includes the attached image of Super Typhoon Isa from April 12 to 24 1997, and the following statement:

"The kicker for a full blown 1997-like Super El Niño to develop would likely be some additional assistance from the development of early-season Pacific tropical cyclones near the Equator, as the GFS model is starting to hint at south of the Equator. Note that the 1997 Super El Niño event had the help from Category 5 Super Typhoon Isa during early April, which developed close enough to the Equator over the Central Pacific to produce another significant westerly wind burst there, and continue to push the West Pacific Warm Pool eastward."

If in the next two weeks the 969 mb low, that I showed, were to migrate to the southwest then it could possibly become a typhoon in the same general area as Typhoon Isa was born; and if it were then to continue, for the following two weeks, on a pathway similar to that followed by Super Typhoon Isa; then by late March or early April it might possibly be in position to give the Kelvin wave that you posted as sufficient kick to start a Super El Nino in 2014.

I know that my scenario includes a lot of if's, but if the current strong Kelvin wave doesn't get enough of a kick to push it over the top later this spring; then it should reflect as a Rossby wave; which might then set up a good possibility of a more normal El Nino event by the Nov to Dec 2014 timeframe.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 05:32:05 PM
For what it is worth, the scenario that I just posted about the 969 mb low possibly turning into a typhoon and then giving a final kick to the current strong Kelvin wave by April 2014; assumes that at least the trade winds do not strengthen in the meantime (or possibly that the equatorial westerlies in Western Pacific continue and/or extend to the Central Pacific); however, the attached figure from Dr Ventrice's article indicates that at least the European seasonal Nino3.4 forecast gives close to a 50% chance that the Nino3.4 will move above a +0.5 index value sometime in April 2014.  Thus it seems plausible that the Kelvin wave may continue receiving strong positive input until the postulated typhoon might (or might not) arrive to give it a final kick:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 22, 2014, 07:58:55 PM
The attached NOAA forecast for North Pacific surface pressures until Feb 26 2014; indicates that the low pressure system that I previously called the 969 mb system, is tracking northwest, rather than southwest, and thus cannot be the starting point of a new typhoon.  Therefore, if a typhoon is going to form in the North Pacific in time, and in a position, to apply a westerly wind burst to the power Kelvin wave by late March to early April, then it will need to come from some future low pressure system, probably formed south of 40N and west of the international date line:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 23, 2014, 01:36:26 AM
ASLR,

Thanks, very interesting explanation that I had not thought too deeply about previously. Yeah, it sounds like a perfectly reasonable effect of early season typhoons or low pressure systems in general. Weather may boost the chances of an El Niño, which would make some sense, given that these phenomena are inherent examples of what happens when "tipping points" are reached. In this case, the strength of the downwelling Kelvin waves may be beginning to overpower upwelling phases.

Dr. Ventrice has actually perfectly nailed the situation in the western Pacific. Granted, he suggests another "burst" of westerlies beginning February 18th through the 28th, but the data from Feb 17-20 are enough to show just how strong the current westerly burst is.

Compare, for instance, the westerly burst at the end of January...
(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-IuYSp-Ihi7A/Uwk_k2kGcJI/AAAAAAAAASo/h_BTh1GvFYs/w871-h431-no/compday.D5WMv8oeIY.gif)

To this (ongoing) one in mid-February. Up to 13 meters/second over a 4-day average is betraying the trending weakness of the trades in the west. The lows he cites as forming just south and north of the equator are sure to kick over some extra power into the downwelling phases. Maybe, even, the next upwelling cool phase will be muted. That would enhance the positive feedback we would expect to see as pointing to an El Niño.
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Q4MU8VD-ZIw/Uwk_qGHCx0I/AAAAAAAAAS8/-AUC8_-Dr9E/w870-h442-no/compday.0sJbVerl6t.gif)

On that basis, I will be especially interested in next Monday's weekly ENSO update from NOAA.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bligh8 on February 23, 2014, 04:07:06 AM
doi:10.1038/nature08316; Received 29 December 2008; Accepted 21 July 2009

"El Niño has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Niño has become more common during the late twentieth century, in which warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific are flanked on the east and west by cooler SSTs. This type of El Niño, termed the central Pacific El Niño (CP-El Niño; also termed the dateline El Niño2, El Niño Modoki3 or warm pool El Niño5), differs from the canonical eastern Pacific El Niño (EP-El Niño) in both the location of maximum SST anomalies and tropical–midlatitude teleconnections."

I quoted the above from the Nature article.

There is a warm pool of water, several hundred miles wide forming around 124 deg west on the Equator I've been watching.

Having transited the Panama Canal into the South Pacific in 1999 several months after the end of 97/98 el-nino, I encountered light/fluky trade winds up to 8deg south where they steadied up to 12 to 15 kts. My passage to the Galapagos, then the Marquises encompassed near perfect sailing conditions, punctuated with the occasional squall.

I did however meet up with some folks on Christmas Island, India Ocean, who made the passage from the Galapagos(91degW on the Equator)to Fatu Hiva, Marquesas(9degSx138degW,)around 3200 miles, in April/may of 98. They described their passage as a horrible event, encountering 17 gales from a North West direction during their passage. A sailors gale might be described as winds to 45kts(51mph).

Those type of conditions would drive a tremendous amount of water in a South East direction. An open Ocean gale is an event that's not fully appreciated until your out there in it.

I fear for the Ice.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2014, 04:45:12 AM
bligh8,

Your comment that you fear for the ice, reminded me to look at the earth wind map of surface winds around Antarctica.  As you can see from the attached image from Feb 22 2014, the combination of atmospheric pressure systems are serving to blow wind directly in the Amundsen Sea Embayment (see the Antarctic folder for guidance on locations and significance, here: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,13.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/board,13.0.html)); which will drag more warm Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into contact with the sensitivity marine glaciers (eg the Pine Ice Glacier, etc), which will accelerate ice mass loss from the grounded ice sheet/glaciers.  It is possible that the weather patterns in the South Pacific associated with the Kelvin wave are already influencing the weather patterns in the Southern Ocean.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bligh8 on February 23, 2014, 06:54:49 AM
ASLR,

First...Thank You for all your hard work here. Your level of integrity and passion is expressed in all your work.

I to believe, based on what I've seen here and the provided links that the WAIS, pine isl & tg will be largely effected maybe in a profound way, by the coming El-Nino.

Best.
Bligh
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2014, 03:12:18 PM
I thought that some people would like to see the earth wind map for Feb 23 2014, rotated so as to focus on the South Pacific.  This map shows that: (a) the pattern of the trade winds in the South Pacific are significantly different from that in the North Pacific; (b) the equatorial westerly winds in the West Pacific appear to be continuing to deflect towards the southeast (possibly effecting the Kelvin wave in the SH more than in the NH); and (c) the current wind circulation patterns are continuing today to blow directly in the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 23, 2014, 05:11:30 PM
ASLR, Ditto what bligh8 said, thanks for your work.
  Here is a graphic on Kelvin and Rosby Wave propagation...

http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/ (http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/)

 Site is fun to play with , pick a spot, initiate a surface bulge and watch it move west . The graphic also helps me to visualize how Rosby Waves work. Interesting also how Kelvin Waves are different in the northern and southern hemisphere.
 Question? Does a low pressure create a bulge and a high pressure create a depression and does a surface depression also move west like a surface bulge?
 
bligh8, I have a good friend who is planning on leaving Hawaii on a trip to the Marquesas in April.
They are sailing on a catamaran that I would call a day sailor. Sounds like the prospects of and El Nino may make their journey rather perilous.     
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2014, 05:33:31 PM
Bruce,

Thanks for the interesting/educational movies about Kelvin and Rossby waves.

In response to your question (noting that I am a civil/marine engineer and not an oceanographer); yes a low atmospheric pressure system creates a bulge in the ocean surface, while a high pressure system creates a depression.  However, how a bulge moves compared to a depression, is a bit out of my expertise as I believe that the answer depends on many different factors including: (a) whether the bulge or depression acts as a soliton (see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soliton (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soliton) ); (b) the influence of wind shear on the ocean surface; (c) the local bathymetry and boundary conditions; etc (tides, salinity and temperature gradients).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2014, 06:01:24 PM
As this is the Consequences folder, I thought that I would post the accompanying four images of the typical wetting/drying effects of El Nino and La Nina events, from the following website(s):

http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/ENSO.html (http://www.nc-climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/ENSO.html)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current)

The first two images (for winter and summer, respectively) for typical El Nino events indicate that on a global average basis, it is wetter over the ocean and drier over the land in El Nino events; which can temporarily increase sea levels to an extent depending on the intensity and duration of the El Nino event.

The third and fourth images (for winter and summer respectively) for typical La Nina events indicate that on a global average basis, it is wetter over land and drier of the ocean in La Nina events; which can temporarily decrease sea levels to an extent depending on the intensity and duration of the La Nina event.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on February 23, 2014, 07:31:50 PM
ASLR,   Are there no typical wetting/drying effects in the Arctic or Antarctic with El Nino / La Nina?
Some short sight I suppose because intensification of onshore winds in the Amundsen Sea would also change humidity I would think ?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 23, 2014, 07:41:23 PM
Bruce,

I was thinking the same thing.  Many agencies, and authors, do not emphasize changes in the Arctic and Antarctic, both as it is difficult to get data to calibrate to, and because the models typically show more errors in these critical areas; as we saw this very clearly with the Cowtan & Way 2013 paper showing the old global warming numbers were too low without including measurements from places difficult to measure.  I believe that we are in for some more surprises as we more in to a positive PDO phase.

Best,
ASLR

P.S.: I am traveling for the next few days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on February 23, 2014, 08:39:28 PM
Bruce, ASLR, yes, as far as I know the southern polar front keeps most of the effects of el Nino out of Antarctica, at most I think there should be some increase in precipitation after the Nino peak has topped, but while it's developing the effects stay mostly within tropics and temperate regions. In Arctic the situation is not so clear since el Nino effects can't get there directly because of the Rocky Mountains (a bit of guessing going on here) but what it does do is to warm up the Atlantic warm pool in the Mexican Gulf/Caribbean and the currents bring the warmth also to the Arctic, though delayed from the peak. Should this develop this year the effects on Arctic could be visible earliest in the late winter 2015 (a bit more guessing), though a more direct effect may be possible via the North Pacific currents (presuming they reorganize a bit during el Nino).

(a lot of guess work going on in this image):
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-diyEYKzfIPY/TZsaNMNpAZI/AAAAAAAAAD0/yWEoPjAOFXA/s1600/ElNinotWarmSpellsEnergyFlow.PNG (http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-diyEYKzfIPY/TZsaNMNpAZI/AAAAAAAAAD0/yWEoPjAOFXA/s1600/ElNinotWarmSpellsEnergyFlow.PNG)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bligh8 on February 23, 2014, 11:28:43 PM
Quote

bligh8, I have a good friend who is planning on leaving Hawaii on a trip to the Marquesas in April.
They are sailing on a catamaran that I would call a day sailor. Sounds like the prospects of and El Nino may make their journey rather perilous.   

Hey Bruce....

If memory serves...you posted a few pic's of your farm and web site....really nice job!! 
My Grandfather had a farm that I visited in the mid fifty's as a child near Vista, CA. twas a beautiful place back then. Orange and avocado trees...he paid me 1/2 cent per Japanese beetle that I brought back to house in a very large jar.  No-matter the damn bugs killed every tree he had.

About your friend who is planning a sail. From your description of the vessel and what he is planning .. that is not a good idea. Although April would be the right time, thus avoiding the tropical storm season, open Ocean long distant sailing is no game for a small cat.

If by April it looks like an EL-Nino.. he should not do this at all.

Perhaps he is an experienced open ocean sailor, if so, the following is unnecessary.  If he is going to do this, ask  him to check in periodically with "Noonsite.com" for other sailors making that transit. In sailing that distant he should have nothing less than a SSB radio and a  GPSEPRIB.  With a SSB he'll be able to get WWHV Hawaii @  2.5, 5, 10, and 15 MHZ @ 48-51 minutes past the hour, for Pacific highseas warnings. I'm sure WWHV also broadcast voice weather info other than warnings. He would have to check for times and frequencies.

Again, congrats with the farm.

Best,
Bligh

PS...the starfish are really taking a beating.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 24, 2014, 12:03:14 AM
While waiting for the plane to board, I thought that I would make the following post:

Pmt111500,
The interactions of ENSO events and Antarctica are more complicated that previously assumed.  As one example or this relationship the following abstract from Clem & Fogt (2013/2014) which discusses the telecommunication of energy from the tropical Pacific to Western, and Peninsular, Antarctica.  However, with regard to wetting an drying, I agree that an El Nino event may increase snowfall in Antarctic [which with some time would likely increase the ice flow rates of key West Antarctic glaciers due to the increased gravitational driving force associated with snowfall in the highlands and limited snow accumulation on the coasts (due to the warm ocean water and wind scour)]:

Clem, K. R., and R. L. Fogt, 2014:  "Varying roles of ENSO and SAM on the Antarctic Peninsula Climate".  J. Geophys. Res, in press.


Abstract: "Recent analysis has suggested that the warming trends in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula are primarily of tropical origin, through atmospheric teleconnections. There is a strong seasonality to these connections, and the relationship also varies in space in time. Here, connections with tropical (specifically, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, ENSO) and hemispheric circulation patterns (specifically, the Southern Annular Mode, SAM) are contrasted across the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica. We note that during austral winter and spring, ENSO has a persistent relationship across the western Antarctic Peninsula temperatures, while SAM has a persistent relationship with temperatures across the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula. Meanwhile, the ENSO relationship with temperatures across the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula, and the SAM relationship with temperatures along the western Peninsula vary in time, especially in austral spring. In contrast, the relationship of these two climate patterns and temperatures across West Antarctica is more complicated and less persistent. Using the newly reconstructed Byrd temperature time series, we find significant relationships with SAM and temperatures across West Antarctica, but only in certain seasons. The ENSO relationship is weaker and statistically insignificant and varies in time and season as a function of the location and magnitude of the teleconnection to the South Pacific. Together, these results suggest that linking the warming across both the Antarctic Peninsula and West Antarctica to either changes in ENSO or SAM requires careful consideration of temporal and spatial variations in the atmospheric response in the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas associated with these patterns."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 24, 2014, 08:05:58 PM
Happy travels, ASLR.

Meanwhile, the latest weekly NOAA forecast is out:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

p26 :
Quote
models predict either ENSO-neutral or El Niño (greater or equal to+0.5ºC) during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2014

p.27:
Quote
The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts ENSO-neutral through the N.H. spring 2014 followed by El Niño starting in June-August (JJA) 2014

But still hot and dry in CA and through much of the SW and S through May (p. 28).

See relevant pages for related graphs and maps.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2014, 03:04:50 PM
The attached NOAA forecast, valid to Feb 28 2014, of the surface conditions for the North Pacific, shows that there will likely be a new hurricane level system developing just east of the international date line and just north of 40N.  A system in this location has the potential to move westward (to become a typhoon), and if it does it would then likely move southward towards the equator where it might give the Kelvin wave a good kick sometime in mid-March.  It will be interesting to see which direction this 964 mb system moves.

Actually, looking at the forecast given here:

http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml (http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Pac_tab.shtml)

it looks like this 964 mb system is moving due eastward, thus unless it heads southeast soon it may never make it down towards the equator (we may have a better idea tomorrow).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Shared Humanity on February 25, 2014, 03:24:19 PM
It does look like this system has the potential for delivering welcome rainfall to the U.S. Southwest.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 25, 2014, 04:17:27 PM
Well, I tend to not think that this type of low pressure system that far north (at 40 N) will have any impact on the Kelvin wave activity. The tendency for northern Pacific typhoons is to develop in the doldrums around 0-10 N, track west, and then northwest as it approaches the western Pacific, due to Coriolis forces. Systems to the north as this one are going to be influenced by the wind shears created by the "permanent" North Pacific high pressure and the Aleutian low. This would more likely keep the system well north, spinning in the North Pacific, and probably fading out somewhere over North America or north Asia.

I think the thing that made Typhoon Isa interesting and likely influential on El Niño was that it formed just west of the Niño 3.4 region, around 10 N, such that the CCW rotation of the storm was ideally positioned to shear winds to the east along its backside. Those westerly winds created by Isa would have been well-positioned close enough to the equator to drive up warm Kelvin wave activity.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2014, 08:22:05 PM
deep octopus,

I agree that what I called the 964 mb low system will most likely move north, and that I am most likely being overly alarmist at the moment. Nevertheless, if you will look again at the first attached image about Typhoon Isa, it first became a typhoon around 165E & 38N and then intensified as it migrated southwest, and when it finally got down to about 10N it start reinforcing the Kelvin wave.   I suspect that the NOAA 96hr forecast is not so accurate, so I attached the second image of NOAA's 48-hr forecast that is valid to Feb 27 2014, which shows this low pressure system at 952 mb, centered near 178E and 43W and headed southwest.

Again most likely this now 952 mb system will probably turn from a southeast heading to an east heading, where as Share Humanity notes that it could bring more water to California; however, it is also conceivable that the 952 mb system will continue heading southwest, where it might interact with the trade winds to turn to the south and then to the southwest, where it then might follow a path similar to Typhoon Isa.  I know that this is path is not the most likely, but then again the "permanent" Pacific blocking high is now gone, and we do not know what influence the Kelvin wave is temporarily having on the storm tracks in the Central North Pacific over the next coming weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 25, 2014, 10:18:32 PM
deep octopus,

I now realize that I was reading the storm track for Typhoon Isa backwards, as Isa clearly formed around 10N circa April 12 and then moved northwest, then northeast, and died around 38N around April 24.  This makes the scenario that I postulated about the 952 mb low pressure system track as being even less likely than I previously imagined.  Therefore unless some fluke happens, we may need to wait until the March -April timeframe to see whether any typhoons form around 10N.

Sorry for the confusion,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 26, 2014, 03:21:25 PM
Yesterday, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology issues the following ENSO update:

"Pacific Ocean expected to warm
Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely in the coming months, with international climate models surveyed by the Bureau showing Pacific Ocean temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds in the austral winter. Model outlooks that span autumn tend to have lower skill than outlooks made at other times of the year, and hence should be used cautiously in isolation.
Recent observations add weight to the model outlooks. The tropical Pacific Ocean subsurface has warmed substantially in recent weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the ocean surface in the coming months. A strong burst of westerly wind occurring now over the far western tropical Pacific, may cause further warming of the subsurface in the coming weeks.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) typically has little influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks suggest neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter. The risk of a positive IOD event occurring is elevated during El Niño events."


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on February 26, 2014, 08:30:17 PM
Good catch (as always), ASLR.

So can we start talking now in earnest about what the likely consequences of an El Nino, or even a Super El Nino, over the coming months/next couple years will mean for weather events around the world, and in particular for ice loss in the Arctic?

Specifically, is this the push that will give us the predicted (just by curve fitting) virtually (less than a million square k) ice free Arctic Ocean by 2016, maybe even 2015?? Surely not this year though?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 02:07:08 AM
wili,

If we have a Super El Nino like the 1997-1998 event then mean global sea level could increase by up to 15mm in one year, as indicated by the attached historical image.

The caption for the image is:

"Global Mean Sea Level (MSL, blue line) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST, red dotted line) from early 1993 to mid-1998. In 1997 there was a rise of 15 mm at the start of the largest El Nino of the 20th century. The meteorological effects of El Niño 1997-1998 were felt worldwide, but it also contributed to variations in mean sea level. Indeed, sea level anomalies measured by Topex/Poseidon were over 20 centimeters in the equatorial Pacific when the phenomenon was at its height (and as much as 30 centimeters off the coast of Peru). These anomalies obviously had an effect on the global mean of sea levels"
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on February 27, 2014, 04:12:13 AM
An obvious consequence of an El Niño (particularly a strong one) will be that 2014 will be the hottest year on the major temperature records, globally, and 2015 more so. Therefore, we should have a very clear break out from the "hiatus" as it were (though I've generally thought the term "hiatus" to always be a visual illusion rather than a statistical fact—higher coverage records like NASA and Cowtan & Way tend to show faster warming trends than NOAA or HadCRUT4.) Even without El Niño, 2014 stands a reasonably good chance of beating 2005/2010 as the hottest year anyway. An unexpected La Niña or volcano would be the only realistic variables I foresee really changing those odds.

But a positive consequence of El Niño will be the reversal of the western United States' crippling drought. More negative ones would include severe droughts in south Asia; flooding in Africa, North America, and South America; outbreaks of dengue fever, malaria, West Nile, and cholera; famine; heat waves emerging globally. Very extreme weather in the context of the loaded dice of climate change could be very volatile. I'm not sanguine. And as ASLR has pointed out, we'll have sea level rise, which will worsen coastal flooding amid storm surges. The hottest year on record is going to act like one.

The Arctic may or may not see much impact. Taking a couple examples of the most severe El Niños in recent history: Looking at volume and extent data, September sea ice volume increased in 1983 from 1982 after the 1982-1983 super El Niño, while extent was static over those two years. During the 1997-1998 super El Niño, both volume and extent did fall from 1997 to 1998, but not in any remarkable ways. We have conversely seen a few La Niña years that were very bad for Arctic sea ice, such as 2012.

The subtropical jetstream will tend to track to the south, bringing moisture along the southern United States. Warmer temperature anomalies will track to the northern half of North America during the northern hemisphere's cold season (November through April), which is also the peak time of El Niño's oceanic-atmospheric teleconnection. Usually, by May, El Niño events end and their impact on the atmosphere wanes by mid-summer.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/esn7hdF5VcDb6-lATVsnBjrMSuD22M0Re3OEd8gR7w=w573-h443-no)

Continuing to chip in to the volume of data for this year: Subsurface temperatures along the equator still yet continue to expand. This Kelvin Wave is menacing. One can see the surface warmth beginning to show up along the international dateline.

(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-S9lySiup5rU/Uw6myb6fUBI/AAAAAAAAATc/uubkNLXrD1M/w526-h474-no/pent.anom.xz.temp.0n.1-02222014.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 03:16:10 PM
deep octopus,

That was a very nice post that you just made, and I agree with all of you points.  Your last figure of the Kelvin wave is indeed menacing, and maybe the current westerlies in the Western Pacific will provide all the extra support that it needs to create El Nino conditions as soon as June 2014.

For historical interest I post the attached figure of Mean Global SST, North Atlantic SST and the AMO index from circa 1870 to 2008, and if you look at the 1997 to 1998 annual data line you will see a short-term spike in those years for both Mean Global SST and North Atlantic SST, but that the short-term spike in the AMO in 1997 to 1998 is comparatively smaller.  As the annual Arctic Sea Ice extent is dominated by atmospheric effects (and not as quickly to the North Atlantic SST), this implies that any El Nino in 2014 will have a modest affect on this years minimum Arctic SIE.

However, as a side note about consequences of an El Nino event, the following link to a Mother Jones article indicates that research from the United States shows that when atmospheric temperatures increase, so does crime.  So if we get a Super El Nino, you may want to lock your door:

http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/climate-change-murder-rape (http://www.motherjones.com/environment/2014/02/climate-change-murder-rape)

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 03:28:41 PM
The following linked reference by Fyfe & Gillett concludes:  “In conclusion, we agree with Kosaka and Xie that accounting for cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific could, in principle, reconcile recent observed and simulated global warming. However, based on the CMIP5 ensemble of climate simulations, the probability of simulating the recently observed eastern tropical Pacific cooling with a freely running climate model under the CMIP5 radiative forcing protocol is very low, and hence so too is the probability of simulating the observed global temperature change over the past 20 years.” (see the citation for Kosaka & Xie at the end of this post). 

This implies that in order for GCMs to try to model hiatus periods they must break with the CMIP5 protocols; which in turn implies that the probable impacts of the likely next 15-years of positive PDOs (with more frequent El Nino events) will not be included in the near future CMIP projections, and thus policy makers will not need to consider these consequences, if they do not wish to, as the process-based scientific methodology is not yet adequate to definitively resolves such issues, so we are left with the uncertainties of the "fat-tailed" PDF, particularly with regard to the possibility that some strong El Nino event might trip some positive feedback mechanism past some tipping point (eg.: (1) a temporary acceleration of permafrost decomposition might release sufficient GHG to accelerate polar amplification that could feedback on more permafrost decomposition, and (2) as I have previously stated the Amundsen Bellingshausen Sea Low, ABSL, is persistent from Sept to Feb, so if we have an El Nino in that period, then the associate winds could drive warm Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; which might trip the adjoining marine glaciers into higher rates of ice mass loss, and associated higher rates of sea level rise, SLR, which may stay higher even after the El Nino event is finished):

“Recent observed and simulated warming” by John C. Fyfe & Nathan P. Gillett published in Nature Climate Change 4, 150–151 (2014) doi:10.1038/nclimate2111 Published online 26 February 2014

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2111.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n3/full/nclimate2111.html)


“Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling” by Yu Kosaka & Shang-Ping Xie published in Nature 501, 403–407 (19 September 2013) doi:10.1038/nature12534
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on February 27, 2014, 04:44:33 PM
ASLR

Quote
This implies that in order for GCMs to try to model hiatus periods they must break with the CMIP5 protocols; which in turn implies that the probable impacts of the likely next 15-years of positive PDOs (with more frequent El Nino events) will not be included in the near future CMIP projections,

Re the PDO comment.  What is this comment based upon?  Is it the fact that the PDO has been negative for a long time (on average) and that the probability is that the next 15 years will therefore average positive?  Or is there some modeled/paleo data which indicates that we are likely to be in positive territory for that time?

Txs
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 05:14:13 PM
JimD,

The statement is based on the statistical/historical findings (I cite the reference in the Antarctic "Forcing" thread) that on average PDO trend negative for 15-years (say from 1999 to 2014), and then positive for 15-years (say from late 2014 to late 2029); however, there are meaningful variations from the average trend periods.  Currently, following CMIP procedures it is not possible to project hiatus periods; however, researchers such as Kosaka & Xie (2013) have departed from CMIP procedures in order to "force" their models to simulate hiatus periods; however, policy makers that use process-based projections then ignore such "forced" model findings (eg the Kosaka & Xie 2013 findings).

Best,
ASLR

P.S.:  I looked up the reference for the 15-year PDO period, which came from:

Meehl, Gerald A., Aixue Hu, Julie M. Arblaster, John Fasullo, Kevin E. Trenberth, 2013: Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J. Climate, 26, 7298–7310. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 08:31:54 PM
Not to sound overly concerned, but following deep octopus' advice, I looked at the Western Pacific Tropical storm risks at:

http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/ (http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/)

The first attached image from cyclocane shows that around 150E and 10N there is a good chance of a tropical cyclone here (and also near 160E and 10S) by March 1 2014.  The second image from NOAA shows that by March 3 2014 this Northern Hemisphere system has turned into a tropical cyclone around 150E and 20N (and headed Northwest like Typhoon Isa did).  Depending on the size of this storm, it would seem that this event could provide a kick to the Kelvin wave from strengthened westerlies out near 150E (thus increasing a chance for a Super El Nino by the end of 2014).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 08:47:42 PM
If it weren't for the NOAA forecast for March 3 2014, showing a cyclone need 150E and 20N, I would not bother to post this earth wind map of the Pacific for Feb 27 2014 showing circulation pattern near 148E and 7N, that might turn into a cyclone (or Typhoon),  I guess we will know in a few days:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ritter on February 27, 2014, 10:59:52 PM
If it weren't for the NOAA forecast for March 3 2014, showing a cyclone need 150E and 20N, I would not bother to post this earth wind map of the Pacific for Feb 27 2014 showing circulation pattern need 148E and 7N, that might turn into a cyclone (or Typhoon),  I guess we will know in a few days:

Pardon my ignorance, but isn't this a peculiar time and place for such an event?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 11:25:41 PM

ritter,

In response to your question I post the following information about the formation period for Super Typhoon Isa, from Wikipedia (see the link at the end of the post):


"Typhoon Isa was the first of eleven super-typhoons to occur during the 1997 Pacific typhoon season. The second tropical cyclone of the season, Isa developed from a disturbance in the monsoon trough near the Caroline Islands on April 12. It moved erratically at first, though after attaining tropical storm status it curved westward due to the subtropical ridge to its north. Isa very gradually intensified, and on April 20 the typhoon reached peak 1-min winds of 270 km/h (165 mph), as reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center; Japan Meteorological Agency reported maximum 10-min winds of 155 km/h (100 mph). After turning northward, it accelerated to the northeast, and merged with a larger extratropical cyclone on April 24."

"In early April, the monsoon trough established itself across Micronesia near the equator. An area of convection within the trough developed in the Caroline Islands on April 9, and resembled the characteristics of a monsoon depression. Shortly thereafter, a large, yet weak low-level circulation formed within the system. The system drifted erratically for several days as it slowly organized; the system underwent several cycles of developing and losing convection. On April 11, the system maintained a persistent area of well-organized deep convection, and subsequent to an increase in upper-level outflow, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) classified the system as Tropical Depression 02W at 1800 UTC on April 11. Strong influence from the monsoonal westerlies left the depression drifting and slowly executing a loop to the northwest. Based on sufficient satellite classifications, JTWC upgraded the depression to Tropical Storm Isa early on April 12 while it was located 105 km (65 mi) of Pohnpei. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) simultaneously classified the system as a tropical depression, and upgraded it to a tropical storm early on April 13.
With the subtropical ridge to its north, Isa tracked to the north and gradually curved to the west. It slowly intensified, due to it being a large tropical cyclone, and late on April 13 JTWC upgraded the storm to typhoon status; at the same time, JMA continued to assess Isa as a minimal tropical storm, and did not upgrade it to a typhoon until April 16. Isa maintained a nearly due-westward movement, although tropical cyclone prediction models anticipated a quick turn to the north. The JTWC recognized the northward model bias, which was described as under-analyzing the strength of the subtropical ridge. By April 16, the typhoon attained the equivalence of a Category 3 tropical cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, and despite a potential threat to Guam the typhoon remained 260 km (160 mi) south of the island. It gradually curved to the north, and on April 20 JTWC classified Super Typhoon Isa as reaching peak 1-min winds of 270 km/h (165 mph). At this point, Isa became an annular typhoon, with a large eye and a lack of spiralform rainbands, while moving nearly due northward, through a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Simultaneously, JMA assessed the typhoon as attaining peak 10-min winds of 155 km/h (100 mph).
Shortly after peaking in intensity, Isa began to weaken, and by April 21 it dropped below "super typhoon" status. It accelerated to the northeast under the flow of the mid-latitudes, and the typhoon weakened more rapidly; JMA downgraded Isa to a tropical storm on April 22, which was followed suit by the JTWC the next day as upper-level wind shear increased. At 0600 UTC on April 23, the JTWC issued the last advisory on the system, and the next day JMA classified Isa dissipated as it became absorbed by a cloud band from a large extratropical cyclone to the east of Japan."

The key is that I believe the monsoon trough has already been established in this area.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Isa (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Isa)


Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 27, 2014, 11:41:39 PM
ritter,

As a follow-up to my last post, I provide the following information (and link) from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, from Feb 24 2014, stating that a monsoon trough has been established from north of Australia to the central tropical Pacific, and that the MJO has recently gained strength in the Western Pacific:

"Issued on Tuesday 25 February 2014

Madden-Julian Oscillation over the western Pacific

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently gained strength over the western Pacific Ocean. The past week has seen enhanced convection over the Solomon Islands and an active monsoon trough that extends from northern Australia into the central tropical Pacific. A weak trough extends across the Indian Ocean, although convection along the trough has been suppressed, as is usual when the MJO moves into the western tropical Pacific.

There is some uncertainty in model forecasts as the MJO moves towards the western hemisphere this week. Some models predict a weakening of the signal, while others maintain its strength. When the MJO signal is strong in the western Pacific and western hemisphere it can increase the risk of tropical cyclone formation in the South Pacific. It can also reduce the likelihood of large-scale monsoonal activity across the tropical Indian Ocean, the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. When the MJO weakens it has less influence on topical weather."

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ritter on February 27, 2014, 11:58:56 PM
Thanks, ASLR.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 12:42:09 AM
Your more than welcome ritter:

The following update from cyclocane (see link at end of post) increases the risk of occurrence of tropical cyclones in the two areas (one in the Northwest Pacific and one in the South Pacific) indicated in the attached image as High:


"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.1N
148.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 305 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A RAGGED AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH WEAK
CONVECTION THAT CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 03 DEGREES SOUTH OF THE RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS SUSTAINING THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODEL
GUIDANCE INTENSIFY THIS DISTURBANCE BUT WITH WIDELY SPREAD
TRAJECTORIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003
MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW
272100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH."


http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/ (http://www.cyclocane.com/tropical-storm-risk/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 01:46:55 AM
Hopefully, when you click on the following link, it will take you to a 7-day loop of the GFS forecast for the Western Pacific; which very clearly shows that the projected cyclones that I have been discussing will occur within the next 7-days and when they do, the loop clearly shows that the westerlies will be strengthened and consequently the Kelvin wave should receive a strong kick, which should substantially increase the likelihood of a Super El Nino by the end of this year.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/maps/vort/westpac.html (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/maps/vort/westpac.html)

Remember to click on the Fwd bottom to get the 7-day forecast loop to run!
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: icefest on February 28, 2014, 09:48:00 AM
I can't help but think that the climate change deniers in the governments of the United States and Australia are failing us all by continuously cutting funding to research that would allow continued maintenance and improvements of the buoys. It's also a threat to people's well-being to limit this kind of information. El Niño and La Niña can be vicious to agriculture and have knowingly led to famines, particularly in the 19th and early 20th centuries when they arrived without warning. And it's costly. Talk about penny-wise, pound-foolish.

I suspect that it will stay that way for as long as Tony Abbot stays on as head of the government. The combination of idealisation of small government and scientific disbelief is hardly conducive to research funding.

I can just hope that the developing El Nino will not cause too much damage.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 03:34:58 PM
The following evidence seems sufficient to me to indicate that we will likely transition to an official El Nino condition by early May 2014, which would markedly raise the prospect of a Super El Nino (possibly more severe that the 1997-1998 event).

The first image and the following storm status report for Feb 28 2014 (from Cyclocane) indicate that at the minimum we currently have two Tropical Depressions, TDs, but by now we probably have one TD in the NH and one Tropical Cyclone, TC, in the SH:

"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 280000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 147.0E, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN
AFB, GUAM, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25
KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.1S
178.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1S 178.7E, APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A POORLY DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 271718Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
DEFINED SYSTEM DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
REMAINING FAIRLY BROKEN. THE RADAR LOOP FROM LABASA, FIJI, IS
SHOWING THE LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ILL DEFINED AS THE
ISLANDS SEEM TO BE DISRUPTING THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30 DEGREES CELSIUS). NUMERICAL MODELS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES POLEWARD FROM THE ISLANDS OF FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//"

The second image is also from Cyclocane, and it confirms that both of these tropical disturbances will become Tropical Cyclones by the end of today.

The third image from earth wind map shows that we can see both of these TC's (or TDs) now.

The fourth image from the Albany University GFS modeled Vorticity for today (Feb 28 2014) shows that these two TCs (or TDs) are already contributing significantly to a Westerlies Wind Burst, WWB, that is currently kicking the Kelvin wave into a strengthened condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 04:05:15 PM
Regarding the prospect of a Super El Nino (given a high likelihood of an official El Nino by May 2014, see prior post) in 2014 (into the Spring of 2015), I offer the following:

(A) It appears that conditions are more conducive now for a Super El Nino that in either the 1982-1983, or the 1997-1998 events for reasons including: (a) There is more ocean heat content in the Pacific now than in either prior events; (b) El Nino conditions seem likely to occur earlier in the season than in either of the prior two events; (c) the current Kelvin wave shown by deep octopus is stronger than in either of the prior two events; and (d) the  madden julian oscillation, MJO, which is currently strong in the Western Pacific is likely to remain strong as it moves eastward (the first attached image from Wikipedia shows how MJOs form and move eastward once the high pressure system over the north central Pacific breaks down [hopefully bringing more rain to California via a Pineapple Express], and the following quote from Wikipedia discusses how the eastward migration of a strong MJO wave can accelerate and strengthen an El Nino event):


Quote from Wikipedia: "There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982-1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the surface easterly winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina.  Globally, the inter annual variability of the MJO is most determined by atmospheric internal dynamics."


The second image from the Albany University shows the modeled Voticity forecast (issued on Feb 28) for March 4 2014, shows the development of a new TC in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and the extension of the westerlies into the eastern Pacific Ocean (indicating a potential breakdown of the tradewinds in this area).

Lastly, in 1997 there were eleven Super Typhoon events (beginning with Isa), so while there are no Super Typhoons in the current forecast, the current forecast only extends at most to March 6 2014.  Therefore, with all the heat that is in the Pacific Ocean there is plenty of more time for Super Typhoons to form in 2014, and if/when they do, they will contribute to the strength of the coming El Nino event, possibly pushing its intensity beyond the 1997-1998 event, which was the strongest El Nino during the Anthropocene.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 04:30:48 PM
While forecasts of Tropical Cyclones and of MJOs become less accurate for events further in the future, the Albany University is willing to look up to 7-days in the future, thus:

(a) the first attached image of the forecast Pacific Vorticity for March 6th, shows the likely rain event heading of to California (which is characteristic of a MJO induced Pineapple Express [see my prior post]), and the continued penetration of the westerlies into the eastern Pacific.

(b) the second attached image of the forecast Pacific Vocticity for March 7th shows the westerlies restoring their integrity and further disrupting the trade winds in the eastern Pacific.

If such westerlies continue then the swap of the base state of the Pacific ocean-atmosphere system (to an El Nino condition), that Dr. Michael Ventrice mentioned, will be a done deal.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 08:54:32 PM
I would like to note that the ENSO is a classic example of a strange attractor in chaos theory, and while some aspects of the ENSO can be captured by GCMs; many important aspects of the ENSO cannot.   One aspect of the ENSO phenomena that captured in GCM projections is which I calling ratcheting quasi-static equilibrium cases associated with periodic strange attractors (or "ratcheting mechanisms" for short); as GCMs are calibrated to historical data that averages out the influence of such mechanisms.   The attached image provides a graphical comparison of a ratcheting mechanism to a more common periodic chaotic strange attractor (indicated by the butterfly type figures in the image) behavior, with both cases superimposed on a general trend of increasing climate change.  It can be seen that in the graphic with the ratching mechanism, a Super El Nino event, can kick one of the Earth's systems into a new higher quasi-static equilibrium state, which will remain in that higher state until another Super El Nino comes along and kicks that Earth system into a still higher state.  Examples of such ratching Earth systems, include: (a) the degradation of the permafrost, and (b) ice mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.  As Super El Nino events become more numerous, and more frequent,  such ratcheting mechanisms can increase the climate sensitivity of the Earth.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on February 28, 2014, 10:05:35 PM
The following Wikipedia links, respectively, indicate that: (a) the North Pacific typhoons season from 100E to the 180th Meridian runs from May thru October (indicating that there is plenty of opportunities yet to come for Super Typhoons to form and contribute to a Super El Nino; and (b) the Southern Pacific cyclone season officially runs from November 1 to April 30, but that tropical cyclones can form at any time of the year (this helps to explain the multiple small tropical cyclones that are currently forming on either side of the equator [due to both the extant monsoon trough and the MJO], and that are currently contributing to the extension of the equatorial westerlies deeper in to the Eastern Pacific).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_tropical_cyclone_season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_tropical_cyclone_season)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2014, 02:26:39 PM
In the way of a status report, the attached image of the Albany University forecast for both vorticity (color scale) and wind speed (arrows) up to March 8.  This image shows a new low tropical pressure system forming around 175E and 15S; which may support the westerlies extent out to about 165W.  I imagine that this westerlies wind system is feeding more energy into the Kelvin wave as it migrates easteward; while I also imagine that the warm water up-well from the Kelvin wave warms the surface waters which in turn strengthens the MJO which creates more tropical low pressure systems which creates more westerlies; which supports a stronger Kelvin wave in a positive feedback mechanism.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on March 01, 2014, 03:56:55 PM
Dr. Masters has a blog post from yesterday afternoon on what ASLR has been posting about.

Quote
Two Pacific tropical storms form, boosting the odds of an El Niño
The atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the Equatorial Pacific are ripe for an El Niño event to develop this spring or summer. As detailed in a guest blog post by WSI's Dr. Michael Ventrice  on February 21, all that is needed to trigger an El Niño this spring or summer are strong and persistent bursts of westerly winds in the Equatorial Pacific to help push warm water from the Western Pacific Warm Pool eastwards towards South America. Two tropical storms capable of doing just that formed in the Pacific on Friday, boosting the odds that we will see an El Niño event this spring or summer. In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Faxai formed Friday morning about 400 miles southeast of Guam. The minimal 40 mph tropical storm is located close to the Equator, at 9°N latitude, which means the the counterclockwise wind circulation around the storm will drive west-to-east winds along the Equator, giving a substantial push to warm waters attempting to slosh eastwards towards South America and start an El Niño event. Faxai is expected to intensify to a Category 1 typhoon by Monday, but is not a threat to any islands. In the South Pacific, Tropical Cyclone Sixteen formed Friday morning near the island of Fiji. This minimal 40 mph tropical storm is moving south-southeast at 10 mph, and is expected to slowly intensify to a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds by Monday. The clockwise circulation of winds around the storm will also help drive westerly winds near the Equator that will boost the odds of an El Niño event. However, since this storm is farther from the Equator (16°S), it will not have a strong an impact on boosting El Niño odds as Tropical Storm Faxai will.


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2014, 04:34:33 PM
JimD,

Thanks for the information from the Wunderground blog (which was my source of inspiration for my past several posts).  As an update on Dr. Masters' status report, I provide the attached image as the following Cyclone Tracking report for March 1, 2014.  This update shows that not only are the two systems (TS03W [FAXAI] and TC16P [KOFI]) that Dr. Masters cites, picking up wind speed, but also a new tropical disturbance has formed near 11S and 157E:

"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 010000Z, TROPICAL STORM 03W (FAXAI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
8.4N 149.5E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, AND HAD
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 010300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 281800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6S 178.9W, APPROXIMATELY 157 NM EAST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 282100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.4S 156.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 490 NM NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR A
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 282322Z METOP-A
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS
DISPLACED WEST OF A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, AS EVIDENT IN A 282319Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWING A 15 TO 20 KNOT CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KNOT
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAIR OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ALSO FAVOR DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT
TWO TO THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW."

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2014, 07:12:28 PM
For those who want to check on the most current status of the tropical storms/cyclones in the Western Pacific, you can periodically check the earth wind map at the following link; which currently shows the status illustrated by the attached image which indicates clearly formed eye-walls for both FAXAI and KOFI confirming their Tropical Storm/Cyclone status; and which also shows the new tropical disturbance near 158E - 11S (which is projected to become a Tropical Cyclone in the next few days).

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-183.30,7.72,303)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2014, 11:03:14 PM
Over in the Mauna Loa Observatory CO2 thread (Science folder), both crandles and Bruce Steele noted that during both of the most recent past Super El Ninos (1982-1983 and 1997-1998) that the MEI was negative early in the first year, probably as a result of large Kelvin waves at the beginning of both events:


monthly MEI
1982   -0.284  -0.146   0.086  -0.041   0.407   0.951   1.622    1.83   1.796   2.024   2.454   2.411
1983    2.689   2.904   3.039   2.876   2.556   2.167   1.725   1.122   0.428   0.002  -0.176  -0.177

1997   -.491   -.607   -.254   .493   1.119   2.307   2.741   2.994   2.999   2.358   2.517   2.316
1998   2.481   2.777   2.748   2.673   2.169   1.129   .258   -.441   -.668   -.848   -1.171   -1.015


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/mei.data)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 01, 2014, 11:10:13 PM
Most of the pmel.NOAA  TAO buoys are currently not sending info but two of them at 110W and 155W still are working. The cold pool in the equatorial eastern pacific is ventilating Co2 with ~ 700 ppm surface water pCO2.
at the 110 W buoy. The last month has had Co2 levels that are the highest in the recording history of that buoy. If 110 W keeps working those high Co2 levels should drop as warm water suppresses the cold upwelled water should the El Nino develop over the next several months.
 Will the Mauna Loa Co2 records deviate from trend due to this change in ocean ventilation or does the anthropogenic signal totally dominate ?  Hope 110W holds in there for the next few months. 

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+110%C2%B0W (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+110%C2%B0W)

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+155%C2%B0W (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+155%C2%B0W)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 01, 2014, 11:54:10 PM
Bruce,

Your last post about CO2 ventilation from cool Pacific water is very interesting. 

While a different El Nino phenomenon is addressed in the following link which leads to an article that presents a theory explaining: "Why does El Niño always peak around Christmas and end quickly by February to April?"


http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rhythm-el-nino.html (http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rhythm-el-nino.html)


The first attached image is from the article and has the following caption:

"This is a schematic figure for the suggested generation mechanism of the combination tone: The annual cycle (Tone 1), together with the El Niño sea surface temperature anomalies (Tone 2) produce the combination tone. Credit: Malte Stuecker"


The second image is the NOAA North Pacific forecast for March 5 2014, which projects that Tropical Storm FAXAI will grow to have sustained wind speeds of 50 knots, and will be positioned near 22N and 156E by March 5th.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on March 02, 2014, 12:28:45 AM
Meanwhile, the ensemble mean at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif)
isn't getting to weak el nino 0.5 level until October.

using data to 8 Feb:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Sea.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Sea.gif)
it was getting there as early as May.

suggesting quite a bit longer in neutral territory.

With a Spring/May barrier to forecasting such swings are possible and could of course swing back again... or not....or ....
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 01:54:38 AM
crandles,

I really enjoy reading your posts, and it is an excellent point that you are making that we all need to remember that this is a volatile time of year with regards to ENSO forecasting. 

On the other hand, the first tropical storms/cyclones that I have been referring to did not form until the afternoon of Feb 28, therefore it seems likely that the ensemble mean forecast using initial conditions from Feb 19 to Feb 28, does not include the influence of the series of tropical storms (NH) and tropical cyclones (SH) that the Albany University projects out until March 8.  It will be interesting to see the ensemble mean projections in a couple of weeks time.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 02, 2014, 02:06:30 AM
Reading Wunderground comments on the present weather patterns of the past few months in the United States, especially in the context of their El Niño discussion, has jogged some thoughts (anecdotal, nonetheless.) Winter 2013-2014 has so far, along the eastern United States, behaved as though in a positive/warm PDO phase. We're seeing by far more precipitation (snow, in particular) than what we have seen in winters 2010-2011, 2011-2012, or 2012-2013, in addition to the dichotomous temperature set-up where the eastern US is cooler than average while Pacific North America is much warmer than average. This is typical in warm PDO years. The mild, relatively dry winters of 2010 through 2013 were reminiscent of La Niña/cool PDO, and were followed by similarly hot summers (2010 to 2012, especially). But this year has seen a dramatic shift.

I believe this set-up is looking to persist for much of 2014, if NOAA's ensemble forecasts for a cool spring along the eastern US hold. The eastern US seen similar set ups like this as precursors to El Niño before. In 1997, 2003, 2004, and 2009, we had cool, wet springs and summers, followed by El Niños of varying intensities. I realize this is somewhat oversimplifying the trends, and is not a predictor of El Niño, but I cannot help but notice these changes and their points in time. La Niña years are typically warm and dry for the southeastern US: 2006, 2008, 2011, and 2012 are key examples. The summer months prior to a developing El Niño are often wet and cool, while summers immediately tapering from El Niño (perhaps in part as a result of El Niños typically, quickly transitioning to La Niña shortly afterwards) are hot and volatile periods. Just some thoughts from my corner of the world. I'll be curious from a personal standpoint (should El Niño arrive by summer), how conditions appear prior to such an event. It would certainly support my hunches if this should be the case...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 05:30:54 AM
The first attached image is from NOAA (see following link) compares the MEI index for the largest seven past El Nino events with the last meaningful El Nino event from 2009-2010.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

And I would like to note that the article at the re-posted following link indicates that on average El Nino events happen about 5-years apart, and five years from 2009-2010 is 2014-2015, which provides some limited support for the idea that we are headed for a two-year El Nino event.  Furthermore, deep octopus states that: "The eastern US seen similar set ups like this as precursors to El Niño before. In 1997, 2003, 2004, and 2009, we had cool, wet springs and summers, followed by El Niños of varying intensities."  As these particular El Nino events are all roughly 5-years apart (if you group 2003-2004 into one event), this supports that idea that following the 2009-2010 event we are primed for a 2014-2015 El Nino event:

http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rhythm-el-nino.html (http://phys.org/news/2013-05-rhythm-el-nino.html)

The second attached image of the March 9 2014 forecast from the Albany University shows that the westerlies may penetrate well into the Eastern Pacific by that date.  Which may keep feeding energy in to the Kelvin wave.

Finally, I would like to say that after thinking about Bruce Steele's post that TAO buoy 110W has just reported the highest CO₂ readings in its history; which indicates to me that the upwelling in the Eastern Pacific is stronger than in many years; which supports the idea that a very strong Kelvin wave is moving across the Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 02:54:48 PM
While keeping in mind crandles' reminder that we are currently in a period of uncertainty (and volatility) with regard to ENSO forecast; nevertheless, I offer the following updated information and thoughts about what I see as the increasing probability of an El Nino event by late Spring or early Summer:

The first attached image from the linked NOAA website, uses satellite measurements of tropical Pacific sea level to show the location of the Kelvin wave on Feb 22 2014 (centered on the 10cm anomaly area in the image near the equator at the international dateline).  This Kelvin wave is moving eastward, and is in a location that should receive energy from the westerly winds forecast by the AlbanyU; however, I would like to note that the AlbanyU forecast for March 9 (so somewhat unreliable) has the trade winds increasing along the equator east of the dateline.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wksl_anm.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wksl_anm.gif)

The second attached image shows the Cyclocane tropical storm forecast issued on March 2 2014; and this forecast shows increase areas of tropical disturbance with increasing probabilities of tropical storms/cyclone; which are very much in keeping with the AlbanyU forecasts.  Also, note that for the area near 10S and 160E, what was a tropical disturbance yesterday is now a tropical low pressure system.  Also, FAXAI and KOFI are still strengthening, but are both moving away from the equator, thus they are both having less influence on the Kelvin wave.

The Australian BoM should release an update on the MJO status in a few days, so we will soon see whether that factor remains strong, and that same report normally gives an update on the condition of the monsoon trough in the Tropical Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 03:24:44 PM
The following gets back to wili's question about the consequences of El Nino events (and my idea of quasi-static equilibrium climate states ratched upwards by strong El Nino events), and information comes from Jim Hunt, in the AVOID thread in the Science folder:

"He may also have been thinking of some of the work of Prof. Peter Cox, such as "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model"
Quote
We find that under a `business as usual' scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr-1 is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4 K
without the carbon-cycle feedback.


not to mention:

During El Nino conditions the model simulates an increase in atmospheric CO2; this increase results from the terrestrial biosphere acting as a large source (especially in Amazonia), which is only partially offset by a reduced outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean."

The above quote from Dr Peter Cox indicates that during an El Nino: (a) on average there is drying in tropical rain forests (including Amazonia) which both reduces CO₂ absorption and increases CO₂ release from dying forests (also note that more drying in the tropical rain forest corresponds with more rainfall in the oceans and thus temporary eustatic SLR during an El Nino); and (b) as we saw from Bruce Steele's post a warming of the tropical Pacific during an El Nino means temporarily less CO₂ release from that area of the ocean.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 06:53:17 PM
The following reference brings into better focus the seriousness of the issue of last post, in that El Nino events on average induce drought conditions in most tropical rainforests (see attached image), as the reference looked at about 50-years of data and found "a two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations" primarily due to droughts.  As the average carbon cycle sensitivity of tropical lands is twice what our models are assuming, and we have been in a 15-year period without any strong El Nino events (due to the negative PDO); we can all well imagine what combine global warming and increasingly frequent strong El Nino events will do to the tropical rainforests for the coming positive phase of the PDO.  Also, remember that in the future when we transition to a negative PDO phase again, all that dead wood in the drought stricken tropical rainforests will be submerged in rain run-off causing more methane emissions (with a GWP 35 times that of carbon dioxide):


Xuhui Wang, Shilong Piao, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Ranga B. Myneni, Peter Cox, Martin Heimann, John Miller, Shushi Peng, Tao Wang, Hui Yang & Anping Chen, (2014), "A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations", Nature, 506, 212–215, doi:10.1038/nature12915


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7487/full/nature12915.html#extended-data (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7487/full/nature12915.html#extended-data)


Abstract: "Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming."


The caption for the attached image is (where CGR is "Carbon dioxide Growth Rate):

"CGR anomalies are from Mauna Loa Observatory and local MAT anomalies were derived from the CRU data set for the period 1960–2011. The correlation coefficients 0.23 and 0.28 are the critical thresholds at significance levels of 0.10 and 0.05 (n = 52), respectively."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 02, 2014, 11:55:07 PM
I thought that some people would be interested in the latest status report on Tropical Storm 03W FAXAI, which comes from the following Stars & Strips website:

http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/tropical-storm-03w-faxai-4-1.270382 (http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.257110/tropical-storm-03w-faxai-4-1.270382)

"1:15 a.m. Monday, March 3, Guam time: Finally, Tropical Storm Faxai appears to be gaining some direction definition, starting to move north and now appears as if she (Laotian lady's name) will pass further east of Guam than previous projections.

 Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest advisory now forecasts Faxai to pick up forward speed and track 325 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base by 7 p.m. Monday, packing significant tropical storm-strength winds of 63-mph sustained and 81-mph gusts as it passes east of the island. Local forecasts say tropical storm-strength winds extend 70 miles from Faxai's center.

 PST will advise of any changes. No watches or warnings are in effect at this time.

Tropical Storm 03W (Faxai), # 3

7:30 p.m. Sunday, March 2, Guam time: What a strange ride this is becoming. The center of Tropical Storm Faxai has traveled in a complete circle over the last three days. It remains nearly 400 miles southeast of Guam, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's latest forecast track has Faxai peaking at Category 1-equivalent strength, 75-mph sustained winds and 92-mph gusts, early Tuesday. JTWC also has Faxai tracking some 225 miles east of Andersen Air Force Base at about 2 a.m. Tuesday. Local forecasts say tropical-storm winds extend about 70 miles outward from storm's center. No watches or warnings are in effect for Guam at this time. Everything depends on whether and when steering influences will push Faxai onto a northerly path. As always, PST will keep a sharp eye on things."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 12:59:41 AM

The first attached image shows the latest Albany University forecast for March 10, 2014, indicating continued strong westerlies around 10S at least up to the dateline, which should push the tail end of the Kelvin wave.

The second image from the following NOAA website, shows the eastward propagation of the MJO from March 2 until April 11, 2014.  This eastward propagation indicates that the Kelvin wave should continue to receive energy input well past the March 10th condition indicated in the first attached image.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif)

After April the official typhoon season begins in the western North Pacific, so it is possible that after April Super Typhoons might feed energy into any El Nino event that might (or might not) have initiated by then.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on March 03, 2014, 08:41:20 AM
Thanks ASLR, for all the info.
I'm wondering whether and, if so, the developing phase change in the Pacific could have anything in relation with the surprising stalling of tropospheric CO2 content. The measurements at Mauna Loa have been almost constant for at least six weeks now.
I've checked the graphs Oct 81-Feb 82 and the same for 96-97. The initial phases of the earlier large El Nino's. The Mauna Loa graphs show only limited stalling near the end of Feb for these periods.
It seems impossible for cold upwelling in front of the Kelvin wave to act as a temporary CO2-sink, large enough to induce the measured stalling.
Which other factors could play a role?

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 02:11:03 PM
werther,

As numerous posters on this thread have noted, both El Nino and the PDO affect weather worldwide, and that many of these changes are already occurring [eg.: deep octopus cites changes in North America, while the attached earth wind map of the Southern Pacific and the Southern Ocean show: (a) telecommunication of warm tropical air from the Southern Pacific directly into the Western Antarctic; and (b) a reduction of wind supporting the Humboldt Current that heads north along the Chilean coast, and if the Humboldt Current is weakened, this will allow the Kelvin wave to split and head both north and south when it hits Peru].  Therefore, the effect of both the coming El Nino and the change of the PDO from negative to positive have more than local effects, such as: (a) the collapse of the "persistent" high pressure system over Mauna Loa may have changed the wind circulation patterns there, affecting how well mixed the air is over Mauna Loa [both Bruce Steele and AR4 cite local areas away from Mauna Loa will high carbon dioxide readings; (b) the transition from a negative to a positive PDO may have temporarily provided good growth conditions [sufficient water and sun] to the tropical rainforests to temporarily absorb carbon dioxide; and (c) cold upwelling actually releases carbon dioxide from the depths of the ocean, while the warm portion of the Kelvin wave would temporarily absorbing CO2 near the Western Pacific in the timeframe that you are talking about.

Finally, I am have not studied meteorology, and I am learning while I go.

Best,
ASLR

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 03, 2014, 03:00:20 PM
Isn't warm water less able to 'absorb' atmospheric CO2?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 03, 2014, 03:26:50 PM
More Kelvin wave imagery. We're beginning to see clear signs of a deepening thermocline to the east as cool upwelling water gets nudged out. Much warmer than average water is lifting to the surface.

(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-AgD9C8F3HUM/UxSQDk4SwgI/AAAAAAAAAUk/4rFPy94wlEk/w526-h474-no/output_WmyQ26.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 03:51:40 PM
wili,

There is a difference between warm/cold water and downwelling/upwelling and there is a difference between absorption and ventilation (perhaps Bruce Steele could explain this better than I).  The following link that Bruce Steele provided (see reply #107), shows that for the NOAA buoy at 110W (see deep octopus's prior graph) there were clear upwelling events of cold water near Feb 21-22 and near March 1-2 that brings up water with a high degree of CO2 saturation (near 750 ppm in the water) from the depths, which then can ventilate some of this CO2 to the atmosphere:

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+110%C2%B0W (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/co2/story/TAO+0%C2%B0%2C+110%C2%B0W)

werther,

First, my posts are a little bit disjointed because of my schedule, but to follow-up on my last post I would like to add that:
(a) The first attached reposted image (from: http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/ (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/)) that A4R cited in the Mauna Loa thread, for one week (Feb 20-26) of CO₂ measurement, that shows a 5.5-day period of flat CO₂ change, followed a sharp upward spike in the Mauna Loa readings on Feb 26 above 400ppm.  This implies both an atmospheric mixing issue, and a likely weather transition period.
(b) We should all remember we are following a non-stationary (changing) global warming trend, and the new weather/climate patterns (such as a possible 2014 El Nino event) will be different than the old patterns (such as the 1982 and 1997 years that initiated the last two Super El Ninos).
(c) The persistent high in the North Pacific built-up an associated anomalous high SST in this area; which might have affected the CO2 patterns around Mauna Loa.

deep octopus,

Your sequence tells quite a story!

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 03, 2014, 04:19:42 PM
Thanks, ASLR. I can certainly understand how cold water that is coming up from the depths might be super-saturated with CO2, but the part I was confused about was the idea of warm water absorbing more CO2 than relatively cooler water, as implied by your earlier post. The dynamics of these things are full of little unexpected surprises, so I was just hoping for more info on this one. Was it a source that you were looking at that suggested that the warm water would absorb more CO2?

Yes, any help from Bruce or anyone else would be appreciated.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Chuck Yokota on March 03, 2014, 04:30:58 PM
wili, this might be helpful to you: http://www.pwtag.org/researchdocs/Used%20Ref%20docs/52%20Carbondioxide%20in%20water%20equilibrium.pdf (http://www.pwtag.org/researchdocs/Used%20Ref%20docs/52%20Carbondioxide%20in%20water%20equilibrium.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 04:45:40 PM
wili,

In my earlier post I had meant to say that areas of downwelling can temporarily sequester some CO2 into the deep ocean water (just like upwelling cold water can vent CO2); however, I don't think that I actually said that in my earlier post, and I am too distracted to find my old post to correct what I actual said (if you tell me the reply # I will go back and correct what I actually said).

werther,

Continuing my disjointed points about changing ENSO patterns and also Global ENSO interactions:

(A) The following reference indicates that the ENSO dynamics since the 1970's cannot be explained by simple extrapolations of past frequencies and amplitudes.  This supports the idea that changes in the Earth System as a whole (eg the Southern Ocean/Atmospheric system was seriously effected by the formation of an ozone hole over Antarctica in the 1970's, and increasing GHG concentrations worldwide are contributing directly to this trend of changes in the ENSO dynamics):

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50264/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50264/abstract)

The 1970's shift in ENSO dynamics: A linear inverse model perspective; Christopher M. Aiken, Agus Santoso, Shayne McGregor, & Matthew H. England; Geophysical Research Letters; Volume 40, Issue 8, pages 1612–1617, 28 April 2013; DOI: 10.1002/grl.50264

Abstract:
"Inverse methods are used to investigate whether the observed changes in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) character since the 1970's climate shift are consistent with a change in the linear ENSO dynamics. Linear Inverse Models (LIMs) are constructed from tropical sea surface temperature (SST), thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress anomalies from the periods 1958–1977 and 1978–1997. Each LIM possesses a single eigenmode that strongly resembles the observed ENSO in frequency and phase propagation character over the respective periods. Extended stochastically forced simulations using these and the LIM from the combined period are then used to test the hypothesis that differences in observed ENSO character can be reproduced without changes in the linear ENSO dynamics. The frequency and amplitude variations of ENSO seen in each period can be reproduced by any of the three LIMs. However, changes in the direction of zonal SST anomaly propagation in the equatorial Pacific cannot be explained within the paradigm of a single autonomous stochastically forced linear system. This result is suggestive of a possible fundamental change in the dynamical operator governing ENSO and supports the utility of zonal phase propagation, rather than ENSO frequency or amplitude, for diagnosing changes in ENSO dynamics."

(B) The following linked reference makes it clear that the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, ACW, and the global ENSO wave, GEW, reinforce each other by positive feedback mechanisms:

White, W. B., S.-C. Chen, R. J. Allan, and R. C. Stone, Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Niño–Southern Oscillation Wave, J. Geophys. Res., 107(C10), 3165, doi:10.1029/2000JC000581, 2002.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JC000581/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2000JC000581/abstract)

Abstract
"Atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections link the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) in the Southern Ocean [White and Peterson, 1996] and the global El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) wave (GEW) in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean [White and Cayan, 2000], both signals characterized by eastward phase propagation and 3- to 5-year- period variability. We extend the tropical standing mode of ENSO into the extratropics by regressing the Niño-3 sea surface temperature (SST) index against sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies over the globe, finding the Pacific-South America (PSA) pattern in SLP anomaly [Cai and Baines, 2001] straddling Drake Passage in the Southern Ocean. The amplitude of this PSA pattern is ∼1/3 that of the ACW in this domain and thus cannot be considered its principal driver. On the other hand, suppressing the tropical standing mode of ENSO in interannual ST (surface temperature) and SLP anomalies over the globe allows the GEW to be observed much more readily, whereupon its eastward phase propagation across the Warm Pool is found to remotely force the ACW in the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic sectors of the Southern Ocean through atmospheric teleconnections [Sardeshmukh and Hoskins, 1988] which propagate along with it. Subsequently, the ACW propagates this imposed GEW signal throughout the remainder of the Southern Ocean as a coupled wave in covarying ST and SLP anomalies, whereupon entering the Indian sector 1.5 to 2.5 years later it spawns a northern branch which takes another 1.5 to 2.5 years to propagate the ACW signal equatorward into the Warm Pool south of Indonesia. There it interferes constructively with the GEW. Thus the two forms of teleconnection, one fast and directed from the tropics to the high southern latitudes via the atmosphere and the other slow and directed from the high southern latitudes to the tropics via the ocean, complete a global circuit of 3- to 5-year duration that reinforces both the ACW and GEW and influences the tropical standing mode of ENSO."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 04:59:10 PM
wili,

Perhaps this quote from Dr Peter Cox will help to clarify this matter:

"During El Nino conditions the model simulates an increase in atmospheric CO2; this increase results from the terrestrial biosphere acting as a large source (especially in Amazonia), which is only partially offset by a reduced outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean."

This statement indicates that in upwelling dominated states like negative PDO periods (and La Nina events), CO2 outgasses (vents) from upwelled deeper waters; but during downwelling dominated states like positive PDO periods (and El Nino events) this outgassing is reduced (which was the point that I was trying to make, but you are correct that warm water does absorb less C02 in static conditions). 

However, timing is a key issue in interpreting responses to non-stationary conditions with multiple oscillations super-imposed on a global warming trend, also with multiple feedback mechanisms, all with different response rates and initial phase conditions.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 05:14:12 PM
Werther,

As additional background to the White et al (2002) explanation of the propagating global ENSO wave, I provide the following:


White, W. B., and D. R. Cayan (2000), A global El Niño-Southern Oscillation wave in surface temperature and pressure and its interdecadal modulation from 1900 to 1997, J. Geophys. Res., 105(C5), 11223–11242, doi:10.1029/1999JC900246.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JC900246/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JC900246/abstract)

Abstract: "Zonal wavenumber frequency spectra of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the equator in the Indo-Pacific basin for the 98 years from 1900 to 1997 and of surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies extending around the globe along 10°N for the 48 years from 1950 to 1997 display significant peak spectral energy density for standing and eastward propagating waves of 3–7 year periods and 120°–360° zonal wavelengths. The global standing wave is the familiar Southern Oscillation, but the global propagating wave represents a new paradigm for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Global distributions of the phase velocities for this global ENSO wave finds covarying SLP and ST anomalies propagating eastward along the mean path of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), with the global zonal wavenumber 1 (2) component taking ∼4 (6) years to cross the tropical Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans at a zonal average speed of 90° (60°) longitude per year. Along this path the interannual SST and SLP anomalies are directly out of phase. Since thermocline depth anomalies underneath the ITCZ in the Pacific Ocean propagate westward [White et al. 1985], we view the global ENSO wave as a slow coupled SST wave trapped onto the ITCZ. Separating the global ENSO wave from the Southern Oscillation using complex empirical orthogonal function analysis finds the amplitude of the propagating wave to be half that of the standing wave, with the former (latter) accounting for one third (two thirds) of the interannual variability in Niño-3 SST and SLP indices during the 1980s. The global ENSO wave is shown to be responsible for the eastward propagation of covarying zonal surface wind and thermocline depth anomalies across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and through this mechanism is able to influence both the phasing and intensity of El Niño. Examining the persistence of the global ENSO wave from 1900 to 1997 finds it and the intensity of El Niño in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean modulated by interdecadal change. Both were strong (weak or absent) during decades of global tropical cooling (warming)."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 03, 2014, 05:44:45 PM
The different Co2 content of the upwelled or  downwelled water is due to it's different sources. The intermediate water upwelled under normal conditions in the eastern equatorial pacific is older water that has accumulated Co2 due to bacterial decomposition of organic matter. Organic matter is
ballasted by calcium carbonate and sinks till it hits the saturation horizon which is at intermediate depths in the pacific. Once the calcium carbonate dissolves the organic surface supplied material is remineralized by bacteria.  The warm water in the graphs above are downwelled in the western pacific. These waters are much younger and haven't spent much time at depth so they don't have the high Co2 content.
 Under normal conditions the eastern equatorial pacific contributes about 72% of all oceanic Co2 ventilation. When the warm western supplied water is pushed to the surface by the Kelvin wave is suppresses the cold high Co2 water and because the cold water no longer has surface contact with the atmosphere it stops ventilating. So the immediate effects of an El Nino are a reduction in natural supplies of oceanic derived Co2 but later as drought and terrestrial  conditions increase the terrestrial supplies of Co2 dominate.

    http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 03, 2014, 05:53:48 PM
A substantial jump in the warm water volume (WWV) across the Pacific basin, to its highest point since 2002, is a red flag. Niño 3.4 lags WWV/upper ocean heat content buildups by a few months.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Ftao%2Felnino%2Fwwv%2Fgif%2Fwwv_nino.gif&hash=c7921ec1a248ec131ea2dccd1b662797)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Ftao%2Felnino%2Fwwv%2Fgif%2Fwwva_std.gif&hash=2f7c4a0880557dce6aced5e23225f7e4)

It's not clear from the graph why they show a 5-month average higher than the peak in 2002, given the monthly data. Nevertheless, the most recent monthly data shows the volume of water (that is, the the total size of the equatorial Pacific that is warmer than 20 C compared to the average) that is tied with the peak of 2002, and a continuation of this trend would signal the largest WWV since 1997. Similar points were reached in late 1982 and early 1990. Late 1991 comes close, by not quite as high as present. Whereas 1990 did not result in an official El Niño (albeit, warm conditions persisted through 1990, 1991, and culminated in a strong El Niño in 1991/1992), the other years did experience El Niños of sorts. In 1982 and 1997, super El Niños resulted, 1991 spawned into a strong El Niño, and 2002 turned into a weak-to-moderate El Niño in early 2003.

From Meinen and McPhaden (2000) (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/pdf/WWV_ENSO.pdf).

Quote
It can also be noted that extrema in WWV precede extrema in Niño-3 SST by several months. Correlation analysis indicates that the peak correlation (r = 0.70) occurs with SST lagging WWV by seven months

...

It is apparent that in general, the larger magnitude anomalies of WWV along the equator correspond
to larger SST anomalies. There is an interesting asymmetry, however, in this relationship. For a given magnitude of WWV anomaly, positive values are associated with subsequent warm El Niño SST anomalies while negative values are associated with subsequent cold La Niña SST anomalies that are not as large as their warm counterparts.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 06:54:13 PM
First, the article at the following website (and the first attached graph) show that El Nino events are becoming more active (almost certainly due to anthropogenic warming):

http://phys.org/news/2013-06-el-nino-unusually-late-20th.html (http://phys.org/news/2013-06-el-nino-unusually-late-20th.html)

The caption for the attached first image is:
"This graph shows El Niño variability derived from tree rings (blue) and instrumental measurements (red). The dashed lines indicate boundary for natural variability. Recent El Niño behavior is largely beyond natural variability. Credit: International Pacific Research Center"

The second attached image shows that if the South Pacific wind pattern changes from their normal consider shown in the figure (and the earth wind map shows that they have changed), and if the ACC (Antarctic Circumpolar Current) changes (due to both the ozone hole and variations in SAM), that the Humboldt Current flow can be reduced so that when the Kelvin wave hits Peru it will have an easy time establishing El Nino conditions.

PS: Bruce Steele, thanks for the great explanation in reply #128 about CO2 ventilation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 08:49:42 PM
Attached is the Albany University forecast for March 11, showing the westerlies being pushed southward apparently by the trade winds extending back to the international date line near the equator (we will have to see whether this long-range forecast holds).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on March 03, 2014, 09:57:01 PM
Thanks Bruce, DO, ASLR, for the continued great info and vision.
I haven't the energy to study your posts and the links better than just superficially at the moment.
But I did project the Warm Water Volume graph in CAD and saw the peak WWV followed by the 97-98 El Nino was around March '97. The present value fell about 2 months earlier then.
Anyway, what I'm taking in is more confirmation on a) the progressively unique character of the intertwined aspects of the biosphere b) there's at least a large possibility of a strong El Nino in the near future. That's going to be a ride at +400 ppm CO2!
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 10:47:02 PM
The following research might be a little bit old, but it is still interesting:

The first attached figure shows an Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, ACW, pattern of alternating warm and cold sea surface temperatures, SSTs.  As discussed in the linked reference from the Los Alamos National Laboratory; the ACW in the Southern Ocean appears to have a dominate influence on the ENSO.

http://www.ees.lanl.gov/staff/cal/acen.html (http://www.ees.lanl.gov/staff/cal/acen.html)

Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and El Nino
Chung-Chieng "Aaron" Lai and Zhen Huang
"Abstract
El Nino in the tropical eastern Pacific has profound consequences for weather around the globe. It occurs aperiodically (usually in the 2- to 9-year time frame). Prediction of El Nino events is now the focus of a major scientific initiative. The societal impacts of accurately forecasting El Nino up to a year in advance are huge, allowing economic and agricultural policy makers to adapt to short-term climate fluctuation in a beneficial way.
The El Nino cycle is the largest source of interannual climate variability on a global scale. At present, researchers know the sequence of phenomena once an El Nino event begins. But, if we want to predict El Nino events, we must know what the trigger is and where it comes from.
The cause of the El Nino cycle has been investigated extensively. So far, however, there is no overall theory that can explain all aspects of the event. An understanding of the complex processes at work to produce El Nino requires information about phenomena occurring all across the Pacific, not just its eastern boundary, the west coast of South America. Present theory says that the weakening of Walker Circulation leads to an El Nino. This happens once some water mass with warmer (than normal) sea-surface temperature (SST) comes into the eastern Pacific. But where does that water mass come from?
We hypothesize that the source of that water mass is the Southeast Pacific as part of the Southern Ocean. The Southern Ocean contains the strong eastward flow of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Recent investigations have found an Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW). The SST anomalies associated with an ACW propagate eastward with the circumpolar flow, with a period of from 4 to 5 years and taking 8 to 10 years to encircle the South Pole. The water mass with warmer (than normal) SST is a spinoff from the ACW on the ACC. Northward-flowing Humboldt (Peru) Currents transmit the water mass towards the equator.
The main objective of this research is to expand our knowledge in the interannual climate variations that might be attributed to El Nino and ACW cycles. This will help us understand not only the complex processes at work to produce El Nino but also the role of the ACW in the global climate system. The goals of this research are (1) to answer key questions related to the occurrence, triggering mechanism, and aperiodicity of El Nino, and (2) to understand the origination of and the atmospheric and oceanic processes in the ACW".

The caption for the second attached image is: "Simplified schematic summary of interannual variation in sea-surface temperature (Warm and Cold), atmospheric sea-level pressure (bold H and L), meridional wind stress (denoted by MWS), and sea-ice extent (grey lines), together with the mean course of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Heavy black arrows depict the general eastward motion of anomalies, and other arrows indicate communications between the circumpolar current and the more northerly subtropical gyres."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 03, 2014, 11:44:46 PM
As a follow-on to deep octopus' post about the predictive use of the warm water volume (WWV) in forecasting ENSO events, I provide the following linked reference on this topic and how the relationship between WWV and ENSO is changing:

Lucia Bunge and Allan J. Clarke, (2014), "On the warm water volume and its changing relationship with ENSO",  Journal of Physical Oceanography, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1)


Abstract: "Interannual equatorial Pacific 20°C isotherm depth variability since 1980 is dominated by two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes: The ‘tilt’ mode, having opposite signs in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific and in phase with zonal wind forcing and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices; and a second EOF mode of one sign across the Pacific. Because the tilt mode is of opposite sign in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific while the second EOF mode is of one sign, the second mode has been associated with the warm water volume (WWV), defined as the volume of water above the 20°C isotherm from 5°S–5°N, 120°E–80W°. Past work suggested that the WWV led the tilt mode by about 2–3 seasons, making it an ENSO predictor. But after 1998 the lead has decreased and WWV-based predictions of ENSO have failed. We constructed a sea level-based WWV proxy back to 1955 and before 1973 it also exhibited a smaller lead. Analysis of data since 1980 showed that the decreased WWV lead is related to a marked increase in the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and a marked decrease in second mode EOF amplitude and its contribution. Both pre-1973 and post-1998 periods of reduced lead were characterized by “mean” La Niña-like conditions including a westward displacement of the anomalous wind forcing. According to recent theory, and consistent with observations, such westward displacement increases the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and decreases the second mode amplitude and its WWV contribution."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 01:16:20 AM
I think that the attached figure of SST and wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific from pmel (see link below) for the five-day mean ending on March 2, 2014, complements the GODAS temperature anomaly sequence (that ends on Feb 27) that deep octopus provided in reply #121, and gives a rough idea how far to the east the Kelvin wave has traveled as of just before March 2nd (bearing in mind that the warm SST lags behind the main submerged mass of the Kelvin wave):

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/plots/gif/sst_wind_anom_5day_ps32.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 01:57:57 AM
In the way of general interest, the following link provides satellite data measured during the birth of Tropical Storm FAXAI on Feb 27 2014

http://phys.org/news/2014-02-nasa-rainfall-birth-tropical-storm.html (http://phys.org/news/2014-02-nasa-rainfall-birth-tropical-storm.html)

The following link provides a local news update for March 3rd about Tropical Storm FAXAI, saying that it is forecast to just miss Guam, and showing the unusual storm track with a loop (see the attached image):

http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=42693:video-tropical-storm-faxai-blowing-by-guam-tonight-more-than-300-miles-east-little-impact-expected&catid=45:guam-news&Itemid=156 (http://www.pacificnewscenter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=42693:video-tropical-storm-faxai-blowing-by-guam-tonight-more-than-300-miles-east-little-impact-expected&catid=45:guam-news&Itemid=156)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 02:10:16 AM
I thought that I would post this earth wind map for March 3 2014 focused on the trade winds in the Eastern Pacific (note the green little circle is positioned at 1.65S and about 140E for reference).  In this image it seems to me that the trade winds around 5S & 140E is being diverted due south, which should make it easier for the Kelvin wave to pass this far east.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 04, 2014, 05:29:00 AM
Thanks all for the info on CO2 interactions.

NOAA is out with its weekly update, which looks pretty much unchanged from last week's, as far as I can tell:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

Still expecting El Nino by August to October (page 27).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 03:04:59 PM
Getting back to the topic of consequences, the attached three images (the first: La Nina; the second: Normal; and the third: El Nino, conditions) from the linked pmel website together with R. Gates' succinct summary, both below, indicate the important of the downward shift of the thermocline in the eastern Pacific during an El Nino event in releasing both latent and sensible heat from the ocean to the troposphere.  With global warming rapidly increasing the ocean heat content and the frequency of Super El Nino events projected to increase with global warming; I would say that we should not rely our experience from the past century, or so, to guides us in what to expect from the possible 2014-2015 Super El Nino, and other such possible future Super El Nino events:


http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/nino_normal.html)

"We know the thermocline is lowered greatly in the eastern Pacific during an El Niño, and that warm water upwelling increases as the water is upwelled from above the lowered thermocline. This is quite literally a heat pump that sends both latent and sensible heat in larger quantities from ocean to troposphere. This is a big part of the reason for tropospheric temperature spikes during El Niños and the source of much of that heat came from warm water that was originally stored in the IPWP. Very careful measurements off the coast of Peru during El Niños have measured this warm water upwelling and the resultant tropospheric temperature increases that result." (from: R. Gates, ASI Blog March 4, 2014)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 03:32:25 PM
Further to my last post, the first two attached images (the first image shows the influence of warm low pressure systems on the transition from normal to El Nino conditions, while the second image shows the warm low pressure system in a La Nina condition)  emphasizes that the location of the warm-wet low pressure tropical storm systems plays a significant role in maintaining: (a) Normal, (b) El Nino, or (c) La Nina; conditions.

The third image (for March 4 2014 6am Zulu time) shows that the tropical cloud cover has moved far out into the tropical Central Pacific (possibly due to the MJO migration), which may be setting up convective atmospheric circulation cells leading a transition to an El Nino condition:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 04:21:25 PM
wili,

Thanks for posting the link to the March 3, 2014 NOAA ENSO forecast.  As you note, it does not show much change from the last NOAA ENSO forecast; however, I would like to point out (as I pointed out to crandles a few days ago when he posted about the latest Nino3.4 forecast) that these NOAA forecasts are based on data prior to noon on March 1, 2014; while in regards to the information about positive feedback mechanisms from: (a) tropical storm/cyclone induced westerly wind bursts, wwb; (b) the MJO eastward migration; and (c) the eastward migration of the warm-wet tropical low pressure systems that effect the Walker Circulation; all of the most significant positive feedbacks from these mechanisms have occurred after noon on March 3rd; therefore, we will need to wait a few weeks to see the real impact of these mechanisms (not that even next week's forecast will average at least a couple of prior weeks behavior into the forecast, so we will need to wait at least two to three weeks to see a significant shift in the ENSO forecasts).  Even the warm water volume, WWV, data that deep octopus posted (which may lead ENSO shifts by about 3 months was from mid-January data, so again relatively high WWV data should not be reflected in the current NOAA ENSO forecast due to the lag in processing and posting the data).

Finally, I post the attached image from the NOAA March 3rd ENSO forecast of the subsurface temperature departures for the tropical Pacific, and I note that while this data is in line with the comparable sequence (see reply #121) that deep octopus posted the image for Feb 27 2014 shows that small zones of the submerged warm water may have temperature departures over 6 degrees C; which indicates just how strong this Kelvin wave is, and I imagine that its effect on SST in the tropical Central Pacific is helping to change the Walker Circulation pattern; thus creating positive feedback for an EL Nino shift.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 04, 2014, 09:59:24 PM
The following is the Australian BoM statement about the MJO on March 4 2014.  This statement means that currently the MJO is acting to increase the probability of an El Nino event this Spring, and that it is not clear over the coming one to weeks whether it will maintain its strength, or become weaker, as it progresses eastward:

"Weekly Tropical Climate Note

Issued on Tuesday 4 March 2014

Madden-Julian Oscillation progresses across the Pacific

A break in the North Australian Monsoon continued over the past week, while active tropical convection has brought heavy rainfall and floods to some south Pacific Islands. Tropical cyclone Kofi passed near Fiji and Tonga over the weekend bringing gale force winds and heavy rains.

This week, the western equatorial Pacific Ocean features a pair of lows—slow moving tropical cyclone Faxia in the northern hemisphere and a tropical low south of the Solomon Islands that is forecast to move toward Australia's Cape York Peninsula in the coming days, potentially reaching tropical cyclone strength prior to crossing the coast.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains over the western Pacific Ocean and is moving into the western hemisphere. When the MJO is over the western hemisphere at this time of year it usually increases the risk of tropical cyclone formation in the South Pacific, and supresses tropical convection activity across the tropical Indian Ocean, the Maritime Continent and northern Australia. The MJO is forecast to continue eastward, but forecast models disagree about its strength. Some models predict a weakening of the signal within the next 10 to 14 days, while others maintain its strength. When the MJO weakens it has less influence on tropical weather."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2014, 01:22:31 AM
The attached Albany University forecast for March 12 2014 was made today on March 4 2014.  This image shows the forecast of the concentration of vorticity near 20S at the international date line, which could be the beginnings of a new tropical cyclone, that could contribute new westerlies wind burst in the area.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2014, 02:23:06 AM
The following linked reference (with a free access pdf) indicates that equilibrium climate sensitivity cannot be reliably estimated from transient climate observations due to such reasons a the changes in ENSO response due to global warming as demonstrated by Kosaka and Xie (2013), [see reference at the end of the post].  This implies that we cannot rely on the climate sensitivity values used in the CMIP5 projections to be accurate:


Rose BEJ, KC Armour, DS Battisti, N Feldl and DDB Koll (2014) The dependence of transient climate sensitivity and radiative feedbacks on the spatial pattern of ocean heat uptake, Geophysical Research Letters, 41, doi: 10.1002/2013GL058955


http://web.mit.edu/karmour/www/Rose_etal_GRL2014.pdf (http://web.mit.edu/karmour/www/Rose_etal_GRL2014.pdf)


Kosaka, Y., and S.-P. Xie (2013), Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403–407,
doi:10.1038/nature12534.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on March 05, 2014, 10:30:15 AM
I saw this at Wunderground:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FCDASSFlux7daySSTanomaly04032014small_zps32ddc4e4.jpg&hash=c6199bbecc359ec13541b6b3627d9716)

Nothing definitive yet, but the plot is very interesting. On 0503 SOI has plummeted to -3.4 in a steep descent.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: CraigsIsland on March 05, 2014, 04:26:32 PM
Thank you contributors for the great posts; illustrative and informative!
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 05, 2014, 04:29:59 PM
werther,

The figure that you attached of Pacific SST anomaly is very telling.  In the way of further support that the Pacific may be in the process of switching states (to an El Nino condition), I provide:

(a) the first attached earth wind map image shows that the current wind pattern in the South Pacific is such that it is partially blocking the northward winds that drive the Humboldt Current, which normally conveys cold Antarctic water northward along the coasts of Chile & Peru.  Thus a reduction in the strength of this cold current could contribute to the anomalously warm SST that you show off the coast of Peru/Ecuador (see also my posts #119 and #130).

(b) the second attached image shows of the equatorial Pacific Tropical Storm 48-hr forecast shows a high potential for an new tropical cyclone in the next few days near 15s and 155E, which could soon contribute another westerly wind burst in this area.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 01:49:06 AM
The following linked reference concludes that the minimum equilibrium climate sensitivity is significantly higher than 3 degrees C, due to the influence of convective atmospheric  mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer in the tropics at a rate that increases as the climate warms.  It is my concern that when we combine the influence of both global warming and a Super El Nino on convective atmospheric mixing near the equator (possibly by late Fall of 2014), could the resulting local decrease in cloud cover temporarily drive climate sensitivity higher than expected, which could push some earth systems (say severe droughts in tropical rainforests, or say methane emissions from the permafrost) to "ratchet-up" to a more positive state from accelerating global warming faster than expected:


Steven C. Sherwood, Sandrine Bony & Jean-Louis Dufresne; "Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing", Nature; 505, pp 37–42; (02 January 2014), doi:10.1038/nature12829

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v505/n7481/full/nature12829.html)

Abstract:
"Equilibrium climate sensitivity refers to the ultimate change in global mean temperature in response to a change in external forcing. Despite decades of research attempting to narrow uncertainties, equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from climate models still span roughly 1.5 to 5 degrees Celsius for a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, precluding accurate projections of future climate. The spread arises largely from differences in the feedback from low clouds, for reasons not yet understood. Here we show that differences in the simulated strength of convective mixing between the lower and middle tropical troposphere explain about half of the variance in climate sensitivity estimated by 43 climate models. The apparent mechanism is that such mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, and this rate of increase depends on the initial mixing strength, linking the mixing to cloud feedback. The mixing inferred from observations appears to be sufficiently strong to imply a climate sensitivity of more than 3 degrees for a doubling of carbon dioxide. This is significantly higher than the currently accepted lower bound of 1.5 degrees, thereby constraining model projections towards relatively severe future warming."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 02:25:39 AM
I am attaching this image to indicate: (a) the upper portion of the image shows that the rate of sea level rise, SLR, bifurcated around the time of the 1982-1983 Super El Nino from the previous rate of about 1.7mm/yr, and that after the 1997-1997 Super El Nino the rate of SLR was permanently changed to about 3.26mm/yr; and (b) most of the steric SLR contribution has occurred in the Southern Ocean, indicating significant telecommunication of energy form the tropical Pacific to the Southern Ocean during the time period covered by the lower portion of the image.

I am concerned that following the next nominally 15-yr positive PDO period that the rate of SLR may bifurcate permanently upward once again.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 02:35:57 AM
I am not sure how significant (or accurate) this Albany University forecast is out to March 13, 2014; however, I am posting it for consistency with the previous series of AlbanyU forecasts that I have posted.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 06, 2014, 04:40:37 AM
The following linked reference concludes that the minimum equilibrium climate sensitivity is significantly higher than 3 degrees C, due to the influence of convective atmospheric  mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer in the tropics at a rate that increases as the climate warms.  It is my concern that when we combine the influence of both global warming and a Super El Nino on convective atmospheric mixing near the equator (possibly by late Fall of 2014), could the resulting local decrease in cloud cover temporarily drive climate sensitivity higher than expected, which could push some earth systems (say severe droughts in tropical rainforests, or say methane emissions from the permafrost) to "ratchet-up" to a more positive state from accelerating global warming faster than expected:


I'm beginning to sense a convergence of several factors that could negatively influence the earth's minimum equilibrium climate sensitivity.  With the impending 2014/2015 El Nino, this might be a time to consider all of these factors.  Several weeks ago Neven posted "Decreasing Arctic albedo boosts global warming" on the ASIB.  As we all know Albedo has not been adequately accounted for in many of the IPCC models.  Recently, Jim Hunt started a thread in Consequences, titled "AVOIDing dangerous climate change. Can Global Warming be Limited to Two Degrees?" .  In that thread (Reply #28:), ASLR provided some alarming information as to how ocean acidification reduces the biogenic production of the marine sulfur component dimethylsulphide (DMS), which helps cool the planet.  When all of these factors are combined with the better understood radiative forcing factors, I fear that a Super El-Nino in 2014/15 will take us to a newer and more hostile climate regime than what we are currently dealing with.


Full Quote @ http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=21274;topic=761.0 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=21274;topic=761.0)

The following linked reference (followed by another link to a summary which, together with the two attached figures, is better than the abstract), that discusses the positive feedback caused by the acidification of the oceans reducing sulfur flux from the ocean which then results in more radiative forcing (see the second attached image) particularly over the Southern Ocean:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1981.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1981.html)

Global warming amplified by reduced sulphur fluxes as a result of ocean acidification; Katharina D. Six, Silvia Kloster, Tatiana Ilyina, Stephen D. Archer, Kai Zhang & Ernst Maier-Reimer; Nature Climate Change;  (2013); doi:10.1038/nclimate1981


http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/nc/en/communication/news/single-news/article/climate-change-ocean-acidification-amplifies-global-warming.html (http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/nc/en/communication/news/single-news/article/climate-change-ocean-acidification-amplifies-global-warming.html)

Summary:

"Scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Dr. Katharina Six, Dr. Silvia Kloster, Dr. Tatiana Ilyina, the late Dr. Ernst Maier-Reimer and two co-authors from the US, demonstrate that ocean acidification may amplify global warming through the biogenic production of the marine sulfur component dimethylsulphide (DMS).

It is common knowledge that fossil fuel emissions of CO2 lead to global warming. The ocean, by taking up significant amounts of CO2, lessens the effect of this anthropogenic disturbance. The "price" for storing CO2 is an ongoing decrease of seawater pH (ocean acidification1), a process that is likely to have diverse and harmful impacts on marine biota, food webs, and ecosystems. Until now, however, climate change and ocean acidification have been widely considered as uncoupled consequences of the anthropogenic CO2 perturbation2. Recently, ocean biologists measured in experiments using seawater enclosures (mesocosms)3 that DMS concentrations were markedly lower in a low-pH environment (Figure 1).

When DMS is emitted to the atmosphere it oxidizes to gas phase sulfuric acid, which can form new aerosol particles that impact cloud albedo and, hence, cool the Earth's surface. As marine DMS emissions are the largest natural source for atmospheric sulfur, changes in their strength have the potential to notably alter the Earth's radiation budget. Based on the results from the mesocosm studies the researchers from the MPI-M have established relationships between pH changes and DMS concentrations in seawater. They projected changes in DMS emissions into the atmosphere in a future climate with enhanced ocean acidification using the MPI-M Earth system model4. In the journal Nature Climate Change it is demonstrated, that modeled DMS emissions decrease by about 18 (±3)% in 2100 compared to preindustrial times as a result of the combined effects of ocean acidification and climate change. The reduced DMS emissions induce a significant positive radiative forcing of which 83% (0.4 W/m2) can, in the model, be attributed to the impact of ocean acidification alone (Figure 2).
Compared to the Earth system response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 this is tantamount to an equilibrium temperature increase between 0.23 and 0.48 K. Simply put, their research shows that ocean acidification has the potential to speed up global warming considerably.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 06, 2014, 05:52:36 AM
Oldleatherneck, I have been rather remiss at updating the "carbon cycle page "lately but my last post referenced a Riebesell et al 2013 paper without a appropriate link...see below

On page 5623 #5     "Concentrations of DMS were reduced by 35% at intermediate(340-600pCo2) and60% at high( 675-1085pCo2) levels.".      I added the pCo2 levels to this quote ,it is a mole fraction in the report but I can't make the little u correctly.     

http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/5619/2013/bg-10-5619-2013.pdf (http://www.biogeosciences.net/10/5619/2013/bg-10-5619-2013.pdf)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 04:27:41 PM
Also,

For those who haven't checked the discussion in the AVOID thread in the Science folder, I have recently posted that attached image of changes in specific humidity measure over the oceans by NOAA in 2012.  The me it is clear that during periods of positive PDO the atmospheric specific humidity increases rapidly, while in periods of negative PDO the specific humidity increases more slowly.  Thus as increased atmospheric water vapor accelerates global warming rates, I conclude that that as we enter the coming period of positive PDO that increasing atmospheric specific humidity will be yet another transient positive feedback factor.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 06, 2014, 04:36:36 PM
NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch, officially, as of March 6th.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf)

Quote
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch

Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2014, with about a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: idunno on March 06, 2014, 05:43:48 PM
Further to the above, from Dr Masters...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 07:18:56 PM
idunno,

Thanks for the link to the Dr. Masters' article, I thought that it was excellent (as his articles normally are).  However, while his article did point out the past contribution that the MJO made to the WWB in the Western Pacific; his article did not point out that the MJO will be moving eastward across the Pacific for the next month, which is perfect timing for reinforcing (via thunderstorms to disrupt the normal Walker Cell circulation pattern into an El Nino pattern) the Kelvin wave as it moves eastward.  The attached forecast map (from the following NOAA link) for the next 15-day makes the timing of this contribution more clear:

The caption for the figure is: "Forecasts of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecasts based of forecasts of RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO."

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml)

Furthermore, while it is nice to see that NOAA has issued an El Nino watch (as deep octopus cites), we should all remember that NOAA needs to be (correctly so) relatively conservative in their warnings (based on data through March 4); however, I expect by the end of March that the NOAA forecast will give more than a 50% chance of an El Nino by June, based on the on-going monsoon trough, and MJO conditions (plus the trade winds look to be weakening to me).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 06, 2014, 08:27:14 PM
NOAA would probably wait until El Niño can be unequivocally observed (say, the third month with Niño 3.4 above 0.5 C) before issuing an "Advisory" stating that El Niño is in the here and now. That was the case for the last El Niño in 2009. In 2012, they maintained a "Watch" for a few months before pulling it in November. Nothing was happening. More likely, they will probably wait until summer to figure if the watch is warranted, should be bumped to an advisory on the grounds of an obvious El Niño event, or pull it altogether. Right now, we don't even have a positive seasonal read (-0.7 for DJF) of which to speak. Of course this is changing rapidly. Likely, we go positive on Niño 3.4 this month, but that would still mean waiting a couple months longer to eke out a seasonal average of 0.5. The odds are good, mind us. There's no reciprocating cool, upwelling Kelvin wave in the cards yet that would obviously disturb this process. This could always change, but I'm reporting only based on the evidence we have.

But what matters at this point is that NOAA is basically saying, "Let's get this possibility of an El Niño on the board, given the evidence, but we're not ready to get ahead of the spring barrier."

End of April and heading into May is about the point when all our hard work covering the Kelvin wave, the westerlies, etc. is going to either bear fruit or not. One thing is clear: the more the trends are sustained throughout the next couple of months, the better the odds. An El Niño event by May or June would be very mature in its youth, indeed, and would become self-reinforcing until an violent disturbance in the oscillation again occurs.

I think your remarks on the MJO, ASLR, are on point, and they are part of what is guiding us through this uncertainty. If there's an El Niño to be had, we can maybe look back to this point in March and see that it will have been the strong westerlies and the volume of warm water that explains why it happened.

And update to the ocean surface temperature anomaly maps give us some interesting clues about what is happening around South America to the east of 110 W. I suspect that the warm Kelvin wave has maybe already breached the surface. I'm monitoring GODAS' weekly updates to the subsurface temperatures to see if this is in fact the case, or something else is going on. Such an event would signal that the upwelling phase has effectively ended.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.3.6.2014.gif&hash=3caad866e1253b3e1b0c7f30a82bef9d)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 10:55:08 PM
deep octopus,

My guess (but only a guess) is that the relatively warm surface temperatures of the coast of Ecuador may well be relatedly to a slow down in the Humboldt current which normal delivers cold water along the coast from the South.  I think that we should think that the PDO is now positive and thus the large Pacific climate state may be reinforcing the more local El Nino factors.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 06, 2014, 11:45:48 PM
Not to cross post too much, but in the Mauna Loa CO2 thread in the Science folder, JimD referred to the possibility that the relatively flat portion of the CO2 curve from January to early March 2014 (see the attached image from NOAA), maybe related to the reduction in CO2 emissions in the Eastern Pacific associated with the initial stages of a Super El Nino (such as the 1997-1998 event).  If so, he raises the possibility of NOAA adopting such observations as part of the factors that they consider when determining the probability of an impending Super El Nino.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 12:08:46 AM
Also, not to over-sell my point to deep octopus that the warming of the SST off the coast of Ecuador may be more related to conditions of the coast of Central and South America (instead of changes in upwelling/down-welling associated with the Kelvin wave [which I believe is still further to the west]); I attached the accompanying earth wind map of the Eastern Pacific for March 6 2014, which shows: (a) stunted southerlies winds along the Chilean/Peruvian coasts; and (b) low trade winds in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific area.  Such conditions would both: (a) reduce the upwelling of cold deep water off the coast of Ecuador, and (b) deliver less cold water from the Humboldt Current up to coastal Ecuador:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 12:55:09 AM
The apparent mechanism (see attached image) cited by Sherwood et al 2014, is that such convective mixing dehydrates the low-cloud layer at a rate that increases as the climate warms, thus creating a positive feedback for more warming

The caption for the attached image, includes the following: "Illustration of atmospheric overturning circulations.  Deep overturning strongly coupled to the hydrological cycle and atmospheric energy budget is shown by solid lines; lower-tropospheric mixing is shown by dashed lines."

Considering the marked impact of a Super El Nino on the humid boundary layer, it is easy to imagine that a strong El Nino could amplify the positive feedback mechanism discussed by Sherwood et al. 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 07, 2014, 01:18:01 AM
 ASLR, you posted while i was typing. I will read Sherwood and maybe that will give me some better insight.    Atmospheric Co2 flux with the oceans is sensitive to plankton growth in the spring, as well as upwelling and downwelling of surface and deep water masses. Co2 levels are also influenced by terrestrial plant growth .It is both seasonally and geographically influenced. Some areas of the ocean tend to be Co2 sinks and others like the eastern tropical pacific tending to be sources.  The actual Co2 levels at any one location is influenced by both time of year and it's latitude north or south of the equator but atmospheric Co2 at altitude is a mixed product of all these various factors. The mixing of atmospheric Co2 isn't something I have read up on but the Co2 levels at the top of Mauna Loa are the product of all these influences. 
 I am linking a graph of Co2 fluxes with latitude.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/images/fig05.gif (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/images/fig05.gif)

Here is the paper this graph came from.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/feel2331.shtml (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel2331/feel2331.shtml)

Trying to pinpoint the reasons for a temporary flattening of the Co2 growth curve at Mauna Loa ( it is undoubtably temporary ) requires the quantification of the various fluxes. In real time I think this isn't possible...   If and when the El Nino does show up in 3.4 I am certain the dissolved Co2 in the sea surface waters will drop dramatically. We will see the pCo2 drop at TAO 110 when that warm water at depth we have been watching cross the Pacific rises to the surface.  The pCo2 levels at TAO 110W are still very high so explaining the flattening of the Mauna Loa Co2 growth curve is dependent on something other than the current high level of ventilation happening there. I looked at TAO 155W today and pCO2 is still at about 500. I would think 155W would show a drop before 110W. Soon I think but it is the first potential El Nino since those bouy's were installed so I am speculating. Time will tell.         
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 02:09:04 AM
Bruce,

I agree with all of your concerns about the possibility of considering using CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa as a predictor of large El Nino events.  I believe that it would takes several super events with similar measurements (correlated/corrected for all of the possible contributing factors that you mentioned).  I have not looked at the Mauna Loa readings during either 1982-1983 or the 1997-1998 El Nino events, and I do not know if daily/weeks readings are available for those period; but it would be interest to see if they exhibit any of the current behavior.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on March 07, 2014, 01:18:01 PM
Weekly Mauna Loa back to 1974 is available at

ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_weekly_mlo.txt

The way they do 365 days ago and 3653 days ago indicate ESRL have daily numbers - but I would think they are a bit noisy and weekly is likely to suit the purpose better.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 02:53:43 PM
Regarding a partial status report on current conditions:

The first image from ( http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/SSHA_10day.png (http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/SSHA_10day.png) ) shows the 10-day average ocean elevation for the Pacific Ocean, which shows the progress of the Kelvin wave across the equatorial Pacific (note the 20cm elevation anomaly).

The second image shows a high probability of new tropical cyclones in the Tropical South Pacific Ocean.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 04:57:29 PM
After scanning the Mauna Loa CO2 records that crandles linked to, my general impression is that it would be difficult to attribute any given change in CO2 to any one factor such as the on-set of a Super El Nino, by itself.  However, if one thinks about both ENSO and the PDO synergy, then one might be able to see more of the holistic patterns.

In this frame of thinking, I present a little bit of additional information about the PDO cycle, together with some limited discussion of the influence of the PDO on both the prospects of a Super El Nino in 2014-2015 and on possible influences on the MLO CO2 readings:

For those not familiar with the PDO, the first image from Washington University shows the Pacific Ocean in both a typical positive PDO (in the left panel) and a typical negative PDO condition (in the right panel); while the second image (from the same source) compare a positive PDO state to a strong El Nino condition.  The synergies between a positive PDO and a strong El Nino condition is clear from these images.

The following table from the Washington University link shows PDO data from 1981 to 2014:


http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)


YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

1981     0.59   1.46   0.99   1.45   1.75   1.69   0.84   0.18   0.42   0.18   0.80   0.67
1982     0.34   0.20   0.19  -0.19  -0.58  -0.78   0.58   0.39   0.84   0.37  -0.25   0.26
1983     0.56   1.14   2.11   1.87   1.80   2.36   3.51   1.85   0.91   0.96   1.02   1.69
1984     1.50   1.21   1.77   1.52   1.30   0.18  -0.18  -0.03   0.67   0.58   0.71   0.82
1985     1.27   0.94   0.57   0.19   0.00   0.18   1.07   0.81   0.44   0.29  -0.75   0.38
1986     1.12   1.61   2.18   1.55   1.16   0.89   1.38   0.22   0.22   1.00   1.77   1.77
1987     1.88   1.75   2.10   2.16   1.85   0.73   2.01   2.83   2.44   1.36   1.47   1.27
1988     0.93   1.24   1.42   0.94   1.20   0.74   0.64   0.19  -0.37  -0.10  -0.02  -0.43
1989    -0.95  -1.02  -0.83  -0.32   0.47   0.36   0.83   0.09   0.05  -0.12  -0.50  -0.21
1990    -0.30  -0.65  -0.62   0.27   0.44   0.44   0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23
1991    -2.02  -1.19  -0.74  -1.01  -0.51  -1.47  -0.10   0.36   0.65   0.49   0.42   0.09
1992     0.05   0.31   0.67   0.75   1.54   1.26   1.90   1.44   0.83   0.93   0.93   0.53
1993     0.05   0.19   0.76   1.21   2.13   2.34   2.35   2.69   1.56   1.41   1.24   1.07
1994     1.21   0.59   0.80   1.05   1.23   0.46   0.06  -0.79  -1.36  -1.32  -1.96  -1.79
1995    -0.49   0.46   0.75   0.83   1.46   1.27   1.71   0.21   1.16   0.47  -0.28   0.16
1996     0.59   0.75   1.01   1.46   2.18   1.10   0.77  -0.14   0.24  -0.33   0.09  -0.03
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44
1999    -0.32  -0.66  -0.33  -0.41  -0.68  -1.30  -0.66  -0.96  -1.53  -2.23  -2.05  -1.63
2000    -2.00  -0.83   0.29   0.35  -0.05  -0.44  -0.66  -1.19  -1.24  -1.30  -0.53   0.52
2001     0 .60    0.29   0.45  -0.31  -0.30  -0.47  -1.31  -0.77  -1.37  -1.37  -1.26  -0.93
2002   0.27  -0.64  -0.43  -0.32  -0.63  -0.35  -0.31   0.60   0.43   0.42   1.51   2.10 
2003   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89   0.68   0.96   0.88   0.01   0.83   0.52   0.33
2004   0.43   0.48   0.61   0.57   0.88   0.04   0.44   0.85   0.75  -0.11  -0.63  -0.17
2005   0.44   0.81   1.36   1.03   1.86   1.17   0.66   0.25  -0.46  -1.32  -1.50   0.20
2006   1.03   0.66   0.05   0.40   0.48   1.04   0.35  -0.65  -0.94  -0.05  -0.22   0.14
2007   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014   0.30     

Clearly, in the 1982-1983 and the 1997-1998 Super El Nino events the PDO was positive during the initial stages of the event, and the January 2014 PDO is was plus 0.3 & I imagine in a few days we will see that the PDO for February 2014 is also positive.

It seem possible to me that some of the changes in CO2 reading at the MLO in January & February of 2014 might be related to the positive PDO in that period, possible due to such factors as: (a) changes in upwelling around the Pacific Ocean and along the coast of Chile and Peru in particular due to changes in the winds and currents (Humboldt) there in that time frame; (b) possible changes in plankton and terrestrial plants related to positive PDO changes in precipitation and local temperatures; and (c) positive PDO related changes in atmospheric mixing patterns in January and February 2014.

These are just thoughts.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 05:25:42 PM
The following links provide some discussion and cautionary words about the El Nino Watch that NOAA just issued (many of the cautionary words are similar to points that deep octopus raised):

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/El-Nino-Watch-May-Be-A-Long-Wait-248943981.html (http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/El-Nino-Watch-May-Be-A-Long-Wait-248943981.html)
http://www.sbsun.com/environment-and-nature/20140306/el-nixf1o-watch-issued-by-us-weather-agency (http://www.sbsun.com/environment-and-nature/20140306/el-nixf1o-watch-issued-by-us-weather-agency)


Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 07, 2014, 10:50:03 PM
I believe that the attached images showing Albany University's March 14 & 15, respectively, forecasts for vorticity and wind speed shows a meaningful amount of westerly wind activity on the Southern side of the equator.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2014, 12:40:01 AM
The following link leads to an older NOAA publication clearly identifying that El Nino events can decrease CO2 emissions from the equatorial Pacific Ocean; however, after reading the article it is not clear whether the information from the article can be used to explain the flat portion of the mlo CO2 curve in January and February 2014:


http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/pubs/outstand/feel1868/feel1868.shtml)


Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2014, 05:28:14 PM
The following link leads to (it also leads to an updated image of the figure that I showed in reply #156) the attached image of: Constructed Analogue (CA) -- Time-Longitude OLR Anomalies.  This data is updated to March 7, and the forecast is through March 22 2014.  This reconstruction of the Time-Longitude Outgoing Long-wave Radiation indicates that the MJO is moving slowing eastward; which in my opinion should give it more time to feed energy in to Kelvin wave.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/forca.shtml)


The caption for the image is:
"Time-longitude section (7.5N-7.5S) of MJO associated anomalous OLR for the last 180 days and for the next 15 days from the constructed analogue forecast based on RMM1 and RMM2. Blue (yellow/red) shades show negative (positive) OLR anomalies and enhanced (suppressed) convection. Forecasts do not include direct contributions from other climate modes such as ENSO, monsoons, etc. - only the MJO."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2014, 06:18:47 PM
For those who want a longer term EWP-based forecast for the MJO eastward progress across the Pacific, I provide the attached figure from the following link.  To me, this indicates that the period from March 20 to March 30 may be a critical time for any thunderstorms associated with this MJO to possibly disrupt the Walker Circulation Cell (& if this were to happen the probability of a strong El Nino event occurring in 2014 should increase significantly):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd52qz/mjo/chi/ewp.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 08, 2014, 06:32:43 PM
To me the attached earth wind map focused on the Equatorial Pacific indicates that:

(a) Clearly two Tropical Cyclones are forming of the north coast of Queensland,
(b) A possible Tropical Disturbance is forming near Vanuatu.
(c) Between 5N and 5S the trade winds are almost absent in the Western Pacific all the way up to at least 170W.

Some of these may help the Kelvin wave progress, but none of these conditions would serve to weaken the Kelvin wave.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 09, 2014, 12:22:13 AM
ASLR, according to GODAS, you're correct about the Kelvin wave still sitting beneath the surface. Though its "nose" on the easternmost point is ever more closely extending to the surface. It is positioned at about 50 meters beneath the surface at 120 W. So in any event, it is waiting in the wings to surface in the east. Right now, the Kelvin wave is expanding its presence in the central Pacific's surface.

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-edxB4KrLwTc/UxufAW-GirI/AAAAAAAAAVg/f5ZkY8Aqpcc/w526-h474-no/pent.anom.xz.temp.0n.1-03042014.gif)

Directing attention to another symptom we've been watching—the oceanic currents and the trade winds—the oceanic equatorial countercurrent is strengthening in the Pacific. Particularly since February has this been the case. I take this to be symptomatic of some positive feedbacks generated by the multiple low pressure systems in recent weeks, as well as the surfacing of warm ocean water near the central Pacific. This surface warming will tend to weaken trade winds, warming waters further, and the cycle renews. The strengthening of the current has a convincing monopoly right now throughout, essentially, the entire Pacific basin. This, to me, is a very serious turn of events favoring El Niño.

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oecPPXTyNj0/UxudrTph_GI/AAAAAAAAAVM/qPnJV54XBsk/w526-h474-no/output_9DBAM1.gif)

You can also see signs of a weakening of currents in the equatorial Indian Ocean, another effect we may wish to watch as the southern hemisphere transitions to autumn and winter. During the austral winter, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events will occur and they behave in ways that can be traced to El Niño, usually happening prior to El Niño. For instance, positive IOD events are observed in 1963, 1972, 1977, 1982, 1994, 1997, and 2006, which all led El Niño events by a few months. This is related to possible Indian Ocean Dipole-ENSO teleconnections.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/positive/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/IOD/positive/)

The easterly motion would portend cooling waters around the western Pacific/eastern Indian Ocean, suggesting a positive IOD event, which is compatible with El Niño. Conversely, negative IOD corresponds with La Niña. A positive IOD event coupled with El Niño would seriously amplify drought in south Asia/Australia, and lead to serious flooding in east Africa. Bureau of Meteorology has no obvious IOD event forecasted in the coming months though it is worth reviewing in the future, should El Niño pan out. I'm less learned about IOD, so I won't go too further on the subject at this point.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 09, 2014, 01:10:42 AM
The panel of the MJO forecast from ASLR seems to be choking off any negative feedbacks that would disturb the trend. BOM's 30-day SOI chart is also apparently at its lowest point since early 2013. Not yet in El Niño territory, but let's say that the preponderance of evidence otherwise speaks for itself: a.) the presence of a very warm Kelvin wave positioned beneath the surface of the Pacific, b.) the weakening of trade winds and the strengthening of the equatorial countercurrent, c.) the drop in sea level pressure over Tahiti while sea level pressure at Darwin has increased, d.) the decline of upwelling from the Humboldt current, e.) the sharp increase in oceanic heat content and the warm water volume, and f.) the increased convective, low pressure activity over the central Pacific, and the increase in westerly wind bursts, partially the result of a strengthening MJO.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 01:18:06 AM
deep octopus,

Thanks for all of the great information, including that about: (a) the increasing westerly current velocities in the Central/Eastern Pacific and (b) the fact that a positive IOD often precedes an El Nino by a few months.

As I have stated in a few posts, I view the period from the middle to the end of March as a critical time period as to whether a Super El Nino occurs in beginning in early May 2014, or not.  It seems possible to me that if the current strong Kelvin wave does not continue to receive positive reinforcement through the end of March (say from the MJO), then it is possible that it will reflect as a Rossby wave by the end of April (to early May), and if so the next Kelvin wave may not reach the Central Pacific until early Nov. 2014 (for a second chance of a moderate El Nino by the next austral summer, ie: 2014-2015).

The attached image of the past and forecast IOD, shows that the IOD became negative in February 2014 (so a few months from the end of January would be the end of April), so if the IOD is going to have any influence on the current Kelvin wave triggering El Nino conditions, that it seems to me that that transition in state would need to begin by early April and be complete by early May 2014.

I guess we will all need to watch what happens (strong MJO, increasing counter currents, WWB's, positive PDO, decreasing trade winds, etc.) in the next one to two months, as to whether we get a Super in the 2014-2015 period; otherwise, it would seem like we have another good chance of an El Nino by December 2014.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 01:40:14 AM
Further to my last post that if a Super El Nino is going to occur during 2014-2015, then the Equatorial Pacific would need to transition to an El Nino state by the end of April, I note that the accompanying figure shows that in a typical El Nino state, there is an atmospheric low pressure system over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, and if you scroll back to the MJO forecast that I posted in reply #171 that is exactly the possible case (ie a low pressure system in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific) by the end of April, due to the departure of the MJO by that time.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 02:04:31 AM
If this attached Albany University forecast for March 16 is correct, then by that date the trade winds will be largely absent east of 160E between 5N & 5S (which might assist more warm water to flow eastward from the Western to the Eastern Pacific).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 04:39:08 AM
I am posting the two attached images related to the impact of the 1997-1998 Super El Nino event on the sea temperature and sea level data collected at the tide-station at Fort Point, San Francisco, and temperature reading taken from the Davenport Mooring in Monterey Bay (see the second image for locations).  The first figure clearly shows the impact (including flooding in February 1998) at San Francisco occurred in a series of Kelvin waves (and associated temperature effects) beginning as early as May 1997.  If our current (2014) pattern continues as we have discussed, we could see a very similar (if not worst) conditions develop from 2014 to 2015.  This figure indicates how a series of Kelvin waves can build up a normal El Nino in May into a Super El Nino by January to February of the following year (roughly speaking)

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/ (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 04:52:23 AM
In my last post I forgot the attached USGS image of the sea level record at Fort Point, San Francisco from before 1900; which shows the past recorded Super El Nino events of 1915-16, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1982-83, and 1997-98.  We will see if 2014-15 joins this string of Super El Nino events.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 09, 2014, 06:47:24 AM
ASLR, I thought I would comment on some biological impacts I witnessed in the 82-83 and 97-98 events. I was younger and spent ~ 200 days per year underwater diving commercially around the Channel Islands in Southern Calif. I had about ten years experience diving before the 82 season and with thousands of hours underwater I had a pretty good idea of how much production came off the various reefs . My career had started before the cold water PDO regime switched to a warm water one ~ 76-77. So in 82 huge storms arrived with swells in the 20 ft.+ range. The Queen was visiting Reagan at the time and almost got washed down the creek at Refugio Canyon while trying to cross a flooded creek with Reagan in a jeep.
 The swells ripped up the kelp beds and as spring arrived the normal upwelling that supplies nutrients
failed . The hot water stressed the sea urchin and abalone herbivores I depended upon to make a living and the starfish began to dissolve( like current die off). The normally colorful reefs began to fade as the pink and purple colored crustose coraline began to bleach . Purple urchins began to die and in places the bottom was covered in dead urchin tests. The abalone would hang on to the reef but they had no strength. As the summer wore on the small creatures that didn't have mussel and fat reserves that seemed to get the larger animal though just disappeared. What happened next was a bit of a revelation for me. I call it " the wildfire effect " for lack of a better analogy. The normally verdant reefs were now white and bleached out but the urchins and abalone began an enormous spawn. Mid December 83 the water temperature dropped dramatically and there appeared enormous numbers of very small urchins and abalone under the sea urchins. I have a theory that all the micro-predators that normally feast on such spawn events had perished during the long hot summer. The recruitment event was very successful and as result the abalone and urchin businesses were very good about five years later as the animals grew to legally harvestable sizes.
 The 97-98 event followed a similar trajectory but with it arrived an abalone disease called withering foot syndrome. The disease didn't go away at the end of the El Nino like the starfish disease or the heat stressed urchin dieoffs of 82-83. It spread and eventually reduced 8 different species of abalone by over 90%. The fishery closed after that. The disease is still spreading north after twenty five years.
Sardines that were almost absent when I started diving in 73 became abundant but that is largely due to the warm water PDO 1977-2000.  I don't know what surprises the next bid El Nino will bring but
after 40 years diving I won't be getting near the dive time in that I used to. I don't look forward to it's return but " the wildfire effect" shows broadcast spawners can take advantage of the carnage these things inflict.   
     
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 11:44:07 AM
Bruce,

I used to do sport SCUBA diving in Southern California in 1973 (before I went to college), and I found your first hand account of the biological effects of Super El Nino's gripping, and I feel bad about the withering foot syndrome's effect on the abalone.  Nevertheless, these ENSO cycles have been going on for a long time and many creatures have adapted to the cycles, but with a superimposed global warming trend (and increasing pollution concentrations), I am concerned that we will hear more stories like the withering foot syndrome & the current starfish die-off.

While it is still not certain that a Super will occur (or any El Nino) in 2014-15; the attached figure and associated selected forecast extract indicate the high probability of a tropical cyclone near 15S and 168E within the next day:

Cyclocane forecast extract: "THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.4S
169.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 167.7E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTH
OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) FEATURE BUILDING OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
STARTED TO FORM IN THE PERIPHERIES. A 090634Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS IMPROVING STRUCTURE AS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
BECOME APPARENT IN THE CDO FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (15
TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
REGION ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
AGGRESSIVELY DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.
SEE REF B (WTPS21 PGTW 090900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING
STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

A tropical storm near 15S and 168E will clearly provide a boost to the current Kelvin wave, which will increase the probability of a 2014-15 Super.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 06:06:27 PM
While most of the information presented in the linked Economist article about the hiatus is not new, I would like to emphasize the following quotes:

http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21598610-slowdown-rising-temperatures-over-past-15-years-goes-being (http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21598610-slowdown-rising-temperatures-over-past-15-years-goes-being)

Quotes from the Economist:
"But that is not the end of it. Laid on top of these cyclical patterns is what looks like a one-off increase in the strength of trade winds during the past 20 years. According to a study in Nature Climate Change, by Matthew England of the University of New South Wales and others, record trade winds have produced a sort of super-Niña. On average, sea levels have risen by about 3mm a year in the past 30 years. But those in the eastern Pacific have barely budged, whereas those near the Philippines have risen by 20cm since the late 1990s. A wall of warm water, in other words, is being held in place by powerful winds, with cool water rising behind it. According to Dr England, the effect of the trade winds explains most of the temperature pause.
….. Gravity wants the western-Pacific water wall to slosh back; it is held in place only by exceptionally strong trade winds. If those winds slacken, temperatures will start to rise again."

These quotes emphasize that the two decades-long unusually strong Pacific trade winds have built-up an almost 20cm gravitational potential energy head to drive a possible Super El Nino, now that the trade wind strength has diminished.  Also, we should remember that the Super La Nina from 2010-2011 (see: http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-362 (http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2012-362) ) drove large quantities of heat into the Tropical Pacific Ocean that could be driving ocean gradients to try to release some of this stored potential energy.

Furthermore, the following link to a research paper by Fang et al 2014, indicates that the frequency of the PDO oscillation is increasing due to global warming, which makes it more likely that we are now entering a positive PDO cycle phase.


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2260-7#page-1 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00376-013-2260-7#page-1)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 06:37:29 PM
The linked reference (with a free access pdf), which focuses on the biological impact of Equatorial Kelvin waves on the Peruvian and Chilean coastal areas:

Vincent Echevin, Aurélie Albert, Marina Lévy, Michelle Graco, Olivier Aumont, Alice Piétri,
Gilles Garric, (2014), "Intraseasonal variability of nearshore productivity in the Northern Humboldt Current System: the role of coastal trapped waves",
Continental Shelf Research, February 2014, Volume 73, Pages 14–30; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.11.015 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2013.11.015)


http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00166/27692/25885.pdf (http://archimer.ifremer.fr/doc/00166/27692/25885.pdf)

However, this paper also illustrates how Equatorial Kelvin waves (EKW) transition into poleward-propagating coastal trapped waves (CTW) that can propagate both northward and southward (see attached image and following quote).  The CTW is another form of Kelvin wave such as the ones measured during the 1997-98 Super El Nino event at Fort Point and the Davenport Mooring, in California (see reply #178):

This paper contains the following quote: "A specific feature of this system in comparison with other Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) is its relative proximity to the equatorial Pacific ocean which makes it particularly sensitive to oceanic perturbations of equatorial origin. These perturbations are characterized by the eastward propagation of energetic intraseasonal Equatorial Kelvin waves (IEKW) across the tropical ocean, forced by westerly wind bursts in the western Pacific (Kessler and McPhaden, 1995, Cravatte et al., 2003). Upon reaching the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, IEKW generate poleward-propagating coastal trapped waves (hereafter CTW) (Clarke, 1983, Belmadani et al., 2012) which, in turn, may force westward-propagating Rossby waves in frequency-dependent latitude ranges (Clarke and Shi, 1991). Such Rossby waves modulate the width of the nearshore chlorophyll-rich band as the associated currents and eddies transport phytoplankton-rich coastal waters offshore (Bonhomme et al., 2007)."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 09, 2014, 08:03:01 PM
In my last post, I pointed out that there is more than one type of oceanic Kelvin wave [e.g. an equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) or a poleward –propagating coastal trapped Kelvin wave (CTW, eg those traveling north past California and those traveling south past Chile), while the linked reference discusses still other types of oceanic Kelvin waves]; therefore, I thought that I should provide a link to an article about Kelvin waves, which contains for the attached image related to how a CTW works, and the following quotes about how a Kelvin wave uses the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographical boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator, to act as a non-dispersive wave:

http://lifesun.info/tag/kelvin-wave/ (http://lifesun.info/tag/kelvin-wave/)

"A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean or atmosphere that balances the Earth’s Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-dispersive, i.e., the phase speed of the wave crests is equal to the group speed of the wave energy for all frequencies. This means that it retains its shape in the alongshore direction over time."

"Coriolis parameter with latitude. This equatorial Beta plane assumption requires a geostrophic balance between the eastward velocity and the north-south pressure gradient. The phase speed is identical to that of coastal Kelvin waves, indicating that the equatorial Kelvin waves propagate toward the east without dispersion. For the 1st baroclinic mode in the ocean, a typical phase speed would be about 2.8 m/s, causing an equatorial Kelvin wave to take 2 months to cross the Pacific Ocean between New Guinea and South America; for higher ocean and atmospheric modes, the phase speeds are comparable to fluid flow speeds.
When the motion at the equator is to the east, any deviation toward the north is brought back toward the equator because the Coriolis force acts to the right of the direction of motion in the Northern Hemisphere, and any deviation to the south is brought back toward the equator because the Coriolis force acts to the left of the direction of motion in the Southern Hemisphere. Note that for motion toward the west, the Coriolis force would not restore a northward or southward deviation back toward the equator; thus, equatorial Kelvin waves are only possible for eastward motion. Both atmospheric and oceanic equatorial Kelvin waves play an important role in the dynamics of El Nino-Southern Oscillation, by transmitting changes in conditions in the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific.
There have been studies that connect equatorial Kelvin waves to coastal Kelvin waves. Moore found that as an equatorial Kelvin wave strikes an “eastern boundary,” part of the energy is reflected in the form of planetary and gravity waves; and the remainder of the energy is carried poleward along the eastern boundary as coastal Kelvin waves. This process indicates that some energy may be lost from the equatorial region and transported to the poleward region.
Equatorial Kelvin waves are often associated with anomalies in surface wind stress. For example, positive anomalies in wind stress in the central Pacific excite positive anomalies in 20xC isotherm depth which propagate to the east as equatorial Kelvin waves."

Also, note that as the leading edge of the current strong equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) is already just over halfway across the Pacific Ocean, this leading edge should interface with the Peruvian coast starting in early April, so by that time either the newly created Rossby waves and coastal trapped (Kelvin) waves will either serve to dissipate the EKM energy, or if the current EKM is strong enough the newly created Rossby waves and CTW's will help to transition the Equatorial Pacific into an El Nino state.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2014, 11:08:48 AM
The first attached image shows that there are now three tropical cyclones in the South Pacific area as reported below by Cyclocane:

"SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (HADI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
18.9S 151.2E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPS33 PGTW 100900) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 100000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (GILLIAN) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 13.5S 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON
ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS32 PGTW 100300) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) AT 100600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
14.9S 166.6E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA,
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS."

The second attached image from earth wind map for March 10 2014 shows: (a) TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) is contributing a WWB to the equatorial tropical; and (b) the trade winds between 5N & 5S are continuing to decrease.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2014, 11:17:39 AM
Attached are two updated images related to the MJO status updated on March 8 2014.  These images show that the MJO is still strong and should provide reinforcement to the Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2014, 02:42:26 PM
The attached AlbanyU image of the vorticity and wind forecast for March 17 2014, shows the projected continued strong westerlies in the Western Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 10, 2014, 04:13:11 PM
ASLR, Kelvin waves  move across the Pacific then divide and move poleward once they hit the South American continent as described in your post # 184. When viewed in the computer simulation I linked Feb. 23 #66 they have the potential to move back westward as they contact Alaska or potentially the Antarctic Continent. I can see where this is a actually very feasible for the northward moving waves but could you perhaps speculate on their fate once they encounter the Antarctic circumpolar current?
Any heat they carry once they get that far south would likely get entrained into the ACC and dissipate but I would like to hear your thoughts.
Here is a link to the computer animation re. Kelvin Waves.

 http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/ (http://oxbow.sr.unh.edu/WaveMovies/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2014, 10:11:29 PM
Bruce,

If you will look at my reply #133, you will see that some researchers believe that when the southward directed Kelvin wave encounters the Southern Ocean, it then creates the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave, ACW (you can Google it), that travels slowly around Antarctica; however, this theory has not been proven (but I believe it is still debated).  I believe that the other option is that the heat from the Kelvin wave disperses slowly throughout the Southern Ocean (primarily into the ACC).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 10, 2014, 11:54:17 PM
Normally, wili makes a post about the fact that NOAA's weekly ENSO forecast is out and can be downloaded at:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

For me the most telling information in the report is the attached image of the weekly SST departures for the last four weeks; which shows that as of March 5, 2014 the entire equatorial Pacific is warming; which supports recent posts citing that the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is warming steadily.  Other than that there are few meaning changing in the ENSO forecast, other than the fact that the Kelvin wave (EKW) is still strong and is proceeding eastward.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2014, 12:19:08 AM
As no one has posted an image of the progression of Kelvin waves (EKWs) across the Pacific in a while, I thought that I could post the attached image from the March 10 2014 NOAA update; and I would like to note that if this pattern of Kelvin waves continues, and also if the current strong EKW establishes El Nino conditions in early May 2014, then the next EKW should reach the western coast of South America around the beginning of September 2014 (thus strengthening the El Nino condition) and a third EKW could reach the Peruvian coast about the beginning of January 2015 (assuming about a 4 month interval between EKWs); which would normally correspond to the peak of the Super El Nino.  See reply #178 for comparable timing for the 1997-98 Super El Nino.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: CraigsIsland on March 11, 2014, 12:31:55 AM
So what would the scanario of a "gradual" ramp up of a El Niño start to affect California? Around July? Heavy rains is what I'm expecting from a unusual season in California. It'd be nice to inform people around what stage of El Niño actually could (or measurably) affect them
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on March 11, 2014, 02:52:12 AM
I'm pretty sure that El Nino or not California cannot expect any significant rains (excepting what they get from the rest of this winter) until the monsoons arrive in the summer or fall as the case may be depending on where in CA you live.  During the dry season there will just not be hardly any rain no matter what.

During the 1998 super El Nino Sacramento only got 1" of rain from 1 June to 1 Nov for instance.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2014, 03:20:16 AM
CraigsIsland,

First, I am not making a weather forecast; and second, I have repeatedly said that a Super El Nino in 2014-15 is not a sure thing (in my opinion the biggest current uncertainty is the behavior of the MJO over the next two to three weeks).

However, I do believe that the chances of a Super El Nino in 2014-15 beginning this late Spring is better than 50-50.  However, some of this matter depends on definitions.  In 1997 the Nino3.4 went above 0.5 degrees C the week of April 23rd, but NOAA did not provisionally recognize an El Nino event until May; while formally an El Nino event is not recognized until the ENSO index has been above 0.5 degrees C for 5 continuous months.  That said, I guess that in 2014 (if we get a Super this year) the coastal trapped wave (Kelvin wave) will start North around April 30th and will reach SF around June 1 (or so), but then the strength of this El Nino will likely ramp-up gradually (due to two more incoming EKWs space apart by 3 to 5 months) to Super status sometime between late Nov. 2013 and early Feb 2014; so that in the winter of 2014-15 there may likely be extensive flooding in California (so CA will likely go from not enough water now to too much water then).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: CraigsIsland on March 11, 2014, 05:37:50 AM
Thank you both for the great responses!

Thaat's what I had in mind and will keep watching with the rest of you
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 11, 2014, 05:58:57 AM
It is late and won't go through the trouble with putting up graphics now, but some research I did on NOAA's ESRL Reanalysis tools yields possible positive correlations between Niño 3.4 and increases in precipitation throughout the continental US during the northern hemispheric warm season (May through October) in years of developing El Niños.

Using analogous, monthly data from super El Niños developing in 1957, 1972, 1982, and 1997 show minor increases in precipitation rates during the warm season of those respective years around California. Should El Niño conditions build by summer, some improvement to drought is possible. However, it's important to note that these positive anomalies are of course compared to those seasonal normalities. Thus, a normally dry summer perhaps becomes slightly less dry. Jim has said as much.

Cheers.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2014, 02:00:32 PM
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, BoM, issued the follow statement on March 11 2014.  Besides being as reserved as the NOAA statement yesterday, it does note that: (a) the recent WWB were the strongest since 2009; (b) the tropical Pacific sub-surface is warming rapidly (due to the Kelvin wave) which should result in the tropical Pacific surface warming soon (in a month or so), which could facilitate El Nino conditions; and (c) the chances of a positive IOD event elevate during El Nino; which I take to indicate that if an El Nino starts at the end of April 2014, a positive IOD event should contribute to one of two more Kelvin waves following our current EKW, which could boost an April El Nino into a Super status by the coming austral summer.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)

"The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral – neither El Niño nor La Niña. However, international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is likely in the coming months, with most models showing temperatures approaching or exceeding El Niño thresholds during the austral winter.
Recent observations indicate that warming of the tropical Pacific is occurring. The tropical Pacific Ocean sub-surface has warmed substantially over the past few weeks, which is likely to result in a warming of the sea surface in the coming months. A recent burst of westerly winds over the far western Pacific is the strongest seen since at least 2009 – the last time an El Niño developed.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below-average rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia. Daytime temperatures also tend to be above average over southern Australia.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is typically too weak to have a significant influence on the Australian climate from December to April. Current model outlooks indicate a neutral IOD through late autumn and early winter. However, the chance of a positive IOD event is elevated during El Niño."

The first attached image from Cyclocane 48-hr Tropical Storm forecast issued on March 11 2014, shows that both tropical cyclones HADI and LUSI will contribute to WWBs in the Western Tropical Pacific over the next couple of days, and that there might be a couple of more tropical storms forming in one to three days (?), with one north of the equator and one to the south.  The second attached image from earth wind map for the morning of March 11 2014, supports the Cyclocane forecast, which indicates that the current EKW is receiving reinforcement from the Western Tropical Pacific.

Also, CraigsIsland,
(1) If you don't want to wait for deep octopus's more accurate information, the images that I posted in reply #68 confirms that the precipitation trend in California is not changed much by a summer El Nino event; and (2) the June 1 date that I gave for the arrival of the Kelvin wave in SF is for the crest of the wave (while the leading edge of the Kelvin wave should arrive in May).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2014, 02:17:28 PM
If the attached MJO forecast for March 10 to 24 (from yesterday) holds, then the MJO should be re-entering the Western Tropical Pacific between March 17 and 24; which should give the Kelvin wave (EKW) a good positive reinforcement kick just when it needs strength to switch the Pacific system into an El Nino condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 11, 2014, 11:48:39 PM
The two attached images of Albany University forecasts for vorticity and wind for March 18 and 19, 2014, respectively; both show a significant Tropical Cyclone forming around 170W and 15S; which if it occurs should give a significant kick of positive reinforcement to the Kelvin wave (EKW), at nearly the same time as the MJO is forecast to strengthen the EKW.  Things should very interesting between March 19 and the end of that month.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 12, 2014, 01:42:05 AM
The following linked MJO report was issued by the Australian BoM on March 11 2014, and notes that the MJO is current absent from the Pacific, and will be absent from the Pacific for at least the next week (this is in keeping with the figure that I posted in reply #198).  After that one of their projections has the MJO weakening, while another has is remaining moderately strong; so we will need to wait and see whether the MJO reinforces the EKW (Equatorial Kelvin wave) between March 17 and 24, or not:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropnote/tropnote.shtml)


"Issued on Tuesday 11 March 2014
Madden-Julian Oscillation in western hemisphere
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has progressed into the western hemisphere. The past week has seen active tropical weather over South America while convection remained generally suppressed over the tropical Indian Ocean. When the MJO is over the western hemisphere at this time of year it usually contributes to a break period in the North Australian Monsoon, with higher than normal pressure often observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Maritime Continent including northern Australia.
Despite the MJO contributing to conditions that are unfavourable for large-scale tropical convection over northern Australia, a weak monsoon trough has remained to the north of Australia, over the Coral Sea and the Southwest Pacific during the week. Three tropical cyclones have also developed across these regions: tropical cyclone Hadi currently in the Coral Sea; tropical cyclone Gillian that has now weakened and is situated in the Gulf of Carpentaria; and, tropical cyclone Lusi near Vanuatu. A westward moving, large-scale tropical wave (an Equatorial Rossby wave) has also been active in Australian and far west south Pacific longitudes and is likely to have enhanced tropical cyclone development in these regions.
The MJO is forecast to continue in an eastward progression with some forecast models weakening the MJO by early next week while others maintain a moderate strength for at least the next two weeks. With exception to the hazardous weather in the vicinity of the tropical lows around the far north of Australia and the South Pacific, the rest of the Asia-Pacific tropics are likely to see suppressed convective conditions for the rest of this week and possibly up to two weeks, depending on the strength of the MJO influence."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 01:52:18 AM
The first image from earth wind map for March 12 2014 shows that Tropical Cyclone Lusi is gaining strength and maintaining strong westerlies south of the equator up to at least the dateline.

The second image is from the Albany University vorticity & wind projection for March 20 2014, and indicates increase tropical storm activity that strengthens the westerlies south of the equator and extends them eastward to at least 170W.

It the forecast for a moderately strong MJO actually occurs between March 17 and 25, then the combination of strong westerlies and MJO reinforcement, might be sufficient to start an El Nino event (assuming that the Kelvin wave [EKW] has begun warming SST conditions in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific by that time.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 02:04:31 AM
The attached three images of a MJO forecast has the MJO moving from the Western Pacific eastward from March 17 thru March 26.  We will see if this forecast holds.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 11:45:24 AM
As the BoM report indicated the next few days will have somewhat less active tropical storm activity as supported by the following Cyclocane report:

" SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 121800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (LUSI) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.6S 173.4E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM EAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA,
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 122100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 141.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 138.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 165 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GOVE AIRPORT, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, ALBEIT
CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. A 130015Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS REMAINED MINIMAL ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS BEGINNING TO BECOME MORE
DEFINED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AS
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING FAIR
EASTERLY OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1003 MB. DUE TO THE RECENT CONSOLIDATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (THE REMNANTS OF TC 19P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 156.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 163.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 575 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND
ILL-DEFINED, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING AND
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. A 120424Z SSMI IMAGE REVEALS A DISORGANIZED
STRUCTURE AS THE LLCC HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
(20 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LIMITED OUTFLOW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 11:52:11 AM
While the tropical storm activity appears to be diminishing, the attached earth wind map from March 13 2014 shows that between 5N & 5S the trade winds are also diminishing across the length of the equator.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 11:58:50 AM
Washington University (see the following link) shows that the PDO increased from 0.30 in January 2014 to 0.38 in February 2014.  This clearly increases the chances of an early El Nino this Spring:

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on March 13, 2014, 05:37:46 PM
Meanwhile, the ensemble mean at
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif)
isn't getting to weak el nino 0.5 level until October.

using data to 8 Feb:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Sea.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd1/nino34Sea.gif)
it was getting there as early as May.

suggesting quite a bit longer in neutral territory.

With a Spring/May barrier to forecasting such swings are possible and could of course swing back again... or not....or ....

Think that post of 2 March managed to get just about the bottom of the swing of model projections. Now mean is rapidly climbing past 0.5 in May
compare
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd2%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=9d5bfe9f88d226d8d4b0636256d5d46a)
and
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=3ba1ae7533e10661c1998f089a740ad3)

that would seem to bring the models back more in line with high likelihoods of an El Nino being talked about here.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 13, 2014, 06:36:25 PM
Signs of warm PDO are clear in the NOAA/NESDIS SST anomaly charts:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.3.13.2014.gif&hash=d163803c571c41b9789ed0c6278ecf82)

A streak of warm water (by my estimate, about 1.5 to 2 C above average) is flanking the Pacific coastline of the Americas, separating the cooler waters to the west. In fact—and I think ASLR pointed this out before—but it does seem that this line of warmth is continuous from Alaska down to Ecuador, in part explaining the transition to a much warmer eastern Pacific than we saw a month or so ago. This does not have to do with the Kelvin wave, which is still below the surface.

PDO at +0.38 would make it the highest on that index since May 2010, about the end of the last El Niño. Looks as though March's PDO is going to be even higher.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 10:51:51 PM
crandles, thanks for the CFSv2 forecast update.

deep octopus, thanks for the NESDISS SST anomaly chart.

The following PDO numbers below, indicate that at 0.38 in February we are ahead of the 1997 Super El Nino start, and looking at the SST anomaly I guess that March will exceed the corresponding 1997 PDO value of 0.65:

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG   SEP   OCT   NOV   DEC
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67

It is my opinion that the 2014-15 Super El Nino will be worst that the 1997-98 El Nino, in particular the warm water volume, wwv, is of deep concern to me, as is the MJO forecast (see how the attached image puts the MJO by the dateline by March 27th, and heading East after that); which to me indicates that it is possible that the NINO3.4 could pass 0.5 by the first week in April. 

I am also concerned that there will be a lot of Super Typhoons this coming typhoon season; which, contributes to my belief that the 2014-15 Super El Nino will be the worst on record.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 13, 2014, 11:46:58 PM
For those who are uncertain how the NOAA/NESDIS SST anomaly chart, that deep octopus posted in reply #207, relates to the PDO index,  the first attached image shows a typical positive (warm) PDO with a horseshoe SST shape in the North Pacific, just as DO posted; while the second attached image shows a negative (cold) PDO pattern:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 14, 2014, 06:44:07 AM
Are those Kelvin-Helmholtz waves in the mid-Pacific? Is that common?


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2Fanomwnw.gif&hash=438bb1eabbe3b3c5079ef138d5ddc449)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 14, 2014, 04:07:38 PM
Wili, If you are looking at the region just above Hawaii that is the easterlies (at 30 degrees north) causing mixing of surface waters. If you are looking at the gyres along the equator they are normal and caused by the predominate westerlies and upwelling mixing water masses. The warm water being driven by the Kelvin waves haven't reached this far east yet so I don't think you are looking at Kelvin wave effects in that region yet.
 Here is a graphic that describes the eddies along the equator in satellite SST map you linked.
 http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/classes/m302/easterlies/trades.html (http://tornado.sfsu.edu/geosciences/classes/m302/easterlies/trades.html)
I am no expert at this so if someone else wants to take a shot at this I'm up for criticism.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 14, 2014, 04:45:54 PM
Thanks, Bruce. I did mean the pattern near the equator. I would think that this pattern would have more to do with different kinds of ocean water moving past each other, but maybe it is the result of the winds you describe.

Note that Kelvin-Helmholtz is different than just Kelvin waves (that Kelvin was a busy boy, apparently!). Look at the link I provided--they occur where fluids of different density move past each other (if I understand correctly).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 05:46:50 PM
Here are forecasts about the MJO through March 28 2014, showing that the MJO will enter the Western Equatorial Pacific by March 16, and will enter the Eastern Equatorial Pacific by about March 26 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 06:07:08 PM
The attached images shows the JASON measured sea surface elevation anomaly between March 4 and 14, 2014; which indicates that the leading edge of the Kelvin wave (EKW) was past 140W sometime between March 4 & March 14.  Therefore, it appears to me that there is a good chance that the EKW may have sufficiently warmed the Eastern Equatorial Pacific towards the end of March 2014, so as to assist the MJO (forecast to be in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific in that timeframe) to possibly transition the Walker Circulation Cell into an El Nino configuration:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on March 14, 2014, 06:08:50 PM
ASLR

I found this and wanted to bring it to your attention as I think you will find it of great interest.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6171/641 (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6171/641)

Quote
Abstract

Periodic behavior in the climate system has important implications not only for weather prediction but also for understanding and interpreting the physical processes that drive climate variability. Here we demonstrate that the large-scale Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation exhibits marked periodicity on time scales of approximately 20 to 30 days. The periodicity is tied to the Southern Hemisphere baroclinic annular mode and emerges in hemispheric-scale averages of the eddy fluxes of heat, the eddy kinetic energy, and precipitation. Observational and theoretical analyses suggest that the oscillation results from feedbacks between the extratropical baroclinicity, the wave fluxes of heat, and radiative damping. The oscillation plays a potentially profound role in driving large-scale climate variability throughout much of the mid-latitude Southern Hemisphere.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 06:37:44 PM
JimD,

Thanks (I will re-post this in the Antarctic folder for those who do not look here).  This raises the question of how much the extratropical energy from a Super El Nino will effect the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and consequently ice mass loss from Antarctica.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on March 14, 2014, 06:48:57 PM
Oops, I see I didn't link the article and video on KH waves in the above post as I claimed. Here it is:


https://andyrussell.wordpress.com/2010/01/
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 07:14:38 PM
I believe that the last image of NOAA's Equatorial Subsurface Temperature Anomaly profile was from March 4 (posted by deep octopus), while the attached is from March 9 2014, and that on that date the Kelvin wave (EKW) was about to resurface around 120W.  This implies to me that there is an excellent chance that the projected MJO in the Eastern Pacific (circa March 26-30) will encounter equatorial SSTs that will assist the MJO to disrupt the normal Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 14, 2014, 07:15:39 PM
Within a 2-3 weeks, the Kelvin wave should surface around the eastern Pacific. At this point, another positive feedback of El Niño kicks in, as surface warmth more significantly impacts trade winds in the lower atmosphere in the central Pacific. The bridge of cool water between the surface warmth around the dateline and that of a warm pool forming around Ecuador will close, and the Pacific basin becomes much warmer than average. Evidently, the Kelvin wave's next move (as the months press on) would be for the warm water to break out of the west-to-east motion at the Ecuadorian coast, and drift northward (north of the equator) and southward (south of the equator). This is what gives El Niño a peculiar "cone" or "conical" shape. Meanwhile, the MJO activity would likely sustain the momentum that is seeming to take hold.

I now believe El Niño conditions will begin by mid-April. It would be the earliest formation of one since 1997.

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/jZtyCHbVMTKXkPvjJBeHN6z9vs6YezceWPtVQ54-vQ=w526-h474)

EDIT: Whoops, ASLR has posted essentially the same thing to effect as I was typing. My fault. I will let this post stand for now, if nothing but as a show of agreement.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: CraigsIsland on March 14, 2014, 07:23:39 PM
"Consensus" is a good thing! Excellent reporting everyone
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 07:35:59 PM
I also provide the following link to a report that states that the monsoon trough is now extending into the Eastern Pacific (which can also contribute to a disruption of the normal Walker Cell pattern into an El Nino pattern):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/100249_MIATWDEP.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/100249_MIATWDEP.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 14, 2014, 07:55:31 PM
NOAA's collaboration of CFS models yields these expectations for April and May SSTs. Formation of El Niño around April is supported by the bridging of two warm pools (the one that has moved eastward from the dateline and has been the center of much storm activity, whereas the newly-formed Ecuadorian warm pool gets a shot of heat from the Kelvin wave that is about to surface.

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-BNoMbAC0Rg0/UyNPPYFWz3I/AAAAAAAAAWU/bzFgiS4FUD4/w774-h598-no/glbSSTMonInd1.gif)

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-lNwUpMaP6fk/UyNPUHsFOoI/AAAAAAAAAWo/gPOWPs2mV1k/w774-h598-no/glbSSTMonInd2.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 14, 2014, 09:11:45 PM
While less definitive that the information that deep octopus just posted (from NOAA), the attached Cyclocane 48-hr forcast do show an area of increased tropical storm activity near 15S & 160E; which supports the point that the monsoon trough has extended into the Eastern Pacific; and raises the possibility that this disturbed air could form a tropical cyclone in this area in the next few days (which could give the Kelvin wave another boost from a wwb).

I would also like to note that the horseshoe pattern shown in both the April and the May 2014 CFSv2 month SST anomaly forecast (posted by deep octopus in reply #222) show clear signs that highly positive PDO index values will occur during those months.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bligh8 on March 15, 2014, 01:00:35 AM
ASLR,

For the last several days I’ve been studying pilot charts for this area of the world, which are representative of historical Ocean & atmospheric data. Ship captains who were tracking weather for creating these charts have accumulated this data. There flawed in two respects in that ship captains avoid areas known to have bad weather for a particular time of year and wind estimates are from an apparent point of view instead of a true or stationary point of view. Yet I found them to be amazingly accurate up to 90 to 95% of the time. I’ve studied these charts for decades and lately I’ve been studying new satellite generated charts of the same type. Historically speaking I can find no anomalies in the trade winds, then again the trades have always been fluky in the Pacific Ocean, right up to the point where one gets 5 to 6 deg off the equator where they steady-up. That said, a two or three knt increase overall in the trade wind speed is nothing to a sailor, where a climate scientist might suggest that it is remarkable. This time of year the charts show a variable wind pattern west of say 170deg West. By that I mean wind speed and direction are varied across the wind rose. Even the tropical cyclones in the areas mentioned are shown to have an 11% probability per month on the charts. (That number 11% represents a high percentage and a place to avoid for a sailor)

The thing that is so disturbing is the large Kelvin wave and all the warm surface water anomalies existing across the Pacific. Behind it all we look at the tremendous heat build up due to agw and it seems that an El-Nino event is surly coming in 2014/2015.

Thanks for your remarks in the Antarctica thread about this.

Best,
Bligh
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 15, 2014, 01:17:39 AM
I have commented on the biological ramifications of large El Nino's in the California current. The
Humboldt current experiences large swings in the Anchovetta biomass and as a result bird, mammal and fish up the food chain experience stress and population swings.The PDO has a direct effect on salmon stocks , sardine and anchovy populations and these changes are of much longer duration than the effects of the El Nino/La Nina cycles. I would like to better understand what causes the shifts of the PDO as it has consequences for fisheries management. Some fisheries like sardines have temperature triggers in modeling future catch limits and in general the ability to predict when stocks are likely to expand or decline could be advantaged with better predictive abilities. These are fisheries or fisherman centric issues but the effects of large El Nino's also play a huge role in the Asian Monsoon cycle. We don't have commenters from the Indian continent that I am aware of but the failure of Monsoons may have very large ramifications for millions of small farmers in India and if indeed the PDO switches long term back to warm water conditions for the next fifteen to twenty-five years I think the chances of repeated El Nino's ( and drought)increase in comparison to the last fifteen years.
 Thanks everyone for contributing to this thread ! We should have had a poll.   
Size and strength of the? 2014-2015 El Nino and for pure speculation the duration of the +ve PDO 
 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 06:49:01 AM
bligh8,

Thanks for the information about the Pacific winds,

Also, Bruce's information was as interesting as always, and he raised the question of the Pacific cycles (particularly the ENSO and the PDO).  The following is related to the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (which is related to the PDO):

The attached figure of projected changes in surface temperatures in degrees C per decade for hiatus (negative IPO) versus non-hiatus (positive IPO) periods is from Meehl et al (2013).  I am not sure how accurate these projections are but if we have just entered a non-hiatus period, then large parts of the Arctic and the ocean surface immediately offshore of the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE, may experience an increase in surface temperature of about 2 degrees C by 2024, above today (although largely these same areas cool by somewhat less than 2 degree C during the following hiatus period, that might begin around 2030)..

Gerald A. Meehl, Aixue Hu, Julie Arblaster, John Fasullo, and Kevin E. Trenberth (2013),"Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation", Journal of Climate 2013 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1)

"Abstract
Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades show rapid increases (accelerated warming decades) and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous study showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of atmosphere of about 1 Wm-2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750m during the hiatus decades while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here we examine processes involved with accelerated warming decades, and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). Model results from CCSM4 show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature and greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 04:11:44 PM
In my last post I cited IPO related projected changes in regional surface temperature patterns, and in this post I cite projected changes in precipitation patterns (focused on RCP 8.5):

The linked reference (with a free access pdf) finds that: "Computer model projections of future conditions analyzed by the Scripps team indicate that regions such as the Amazon, Central America, Indonesia and all Mediterranean climate regions around the world will likely see the greatest increase in the number of “dry days” per year, going without rain for as many as 30 days more every year. California, with its Mediterranean climate, is likely to have five to 10 more dry days per year."

The attached image has the following caption:
CMIP5 multi-model ensemble average mean change in frequency of dry days (days/year) by 2060–2089, relative to the historical period 1960–1989, using the RCP8.5 forcing scenario. Stippling indicates areas where at least 70% of the models agree on the sign of the change. Graph to the right: zonal means values. Map was produced using NCAR Command Language; Courtesy of Scientific Reports

The attached image essentially shows the mean change in regional precipitation patterns circa 2075 following our current BAU pathway.  I find it particularly disturbing that this pattern is very similar to the projected pattern for a Super El Nino event, which means that in the future when a Super El Nino event is superimposed on such a mean precipitation pattern, our tropical rain forests (and the Mediterranean climates around the world, including California) will be severely damaged which will both release more CO₂, and will decrease CO₂ absorption, to/from the atmosphere, respectively:

Suraj D. Polade, David W. Pierce, Daniel R. Cayan, Alexander Gershunov & Michael D. Dettinger, (2014),  "The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes", Scientific Reports, 4, Article number: 4364, doi:10.1038/srep04364

http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140313/srep04364/full/srep04364.html (http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140313/srep04364/full/srep04364.html)

Abstract: "Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 04:48:15 PM
Returning to bligh8's comments about evidence for recent westerly wind bursts (wwb), in his post (see link below) Jeff Masters provides the first attached image of wwb through March 6th (which helped reinforce the current Kelvin wave (EKW) into a strong position to start an El Nino condition by mid-April):

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2642)

And while the next several days are not projected to have any wwb's, the second attached image from Cyclocane for the 48-hr Tropical Storm warnings, there is an increasing chance of a tropical cyclone in the south central tropical Pacific before mid-week, which could add some well positioned wwb's to add to the MJO and EKW surfacing around that timeframe.

Also, in the coming months, anyone interested can track this year's coming typhoons (and Super Typhoons), that could help kick future Kelvin waves (EKW's) into building the El Nino event being in April 2014 into a Super El Nino by late November to December 2014 (see the third attached image and the following link):

http://www.cyclocane.com/ (http://www.cyclocane.com/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 05:00:03 PM
Apparently, forecasts for the MJO track/strength are highly variable at this time of the year, and today's forecast (see attached three images with forecasts thru March 29 2014), which have the MJO bypassing the Western Pacific and moving straight into the Western Hemisphere.  While I do not have any meteorological background, this indicates to me that even if the MJO arrives in the Eastern Pacific by the end of this month, it may not have sufficient moisture/strength to have a major impact on the Walker Circulation Cell.  I guess that we will have to wait and see if the forecast changes yet again:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 11:08:12 PM
I thought that I would post the two following linked information about El Nino events:

The first link is focused on consequences (focused on farming) of the forecast El Nino this year:
http://www.farmforum.net/news/here-comes-el-nino/article_7f9ffc21-d210-5994-8316-e6e7db2a4b16.html (http://www.farmforum.net/news/here-comes-el-nino/article_7f9ffc21-d210-5994-8316-e6e7db2a4b16.html)


The second link is about the following 2010 article identifying a strong El Nino event from 1918-19 that was limited to the Central Equatorial Pacific, but which influenced the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic:
Giese, Benjamin S., Niall C. Slowey, Sulagna Ray, Gilbert P. Compo, Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, James A. Carton, Jeffrey S. Whitaker, 2010: The 1918/19 El Niño. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 177–183.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2903.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2903.1)

Abstract: "El Niño is widely recognized as a source of global climate variability. However, because of limited ocean observations during the early part of the twentieth century, little is known about El Niño events prior to the 1950s. An ocean model, driven with surface boundary conditions from a recently completed atmospheric reanalysis of the first half of the twentieth century, is used to provide the first comprehensive description of the structure and evolution of the 1918/19 El Niño. In contrast with previous descriptions, the modeled El Niño is one of the strongest of the twentieth century, comparable in intensity to the prominent events of 1982/83 and 1997/98."

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd//data/20thC_Rean/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd//data/20thC_Rean/)

See also:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/pandemic_1918_1919.html)

As a post script, I would like to note that while the MJO can strengthen, and or increase the probability of (or timing of), an El Nino event; the MJO does not cause or control an El Nino event.  Thus if the current Kelvin wave is strong enough, then an El Nino will happen this Spring, no matter what the MJO does. In this regard, I am also posting the attached image of the Albany University Vorticity & wind forecast for March 22, 2014; which shows weak trade winds between 5N & 5S all across the Western Pacific and across the dateline to about 160W.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 11:23:21 PM
The following statement (through March 9 2014) and attached SOI chart (through March 15 2014, and note that on March 15 the 30-day moving average SOI index is -7.5), from the Australian BoM, supports the idea that we are moving towards an El Nino event beginning around mid-April 2014:

"Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has continued to drop over the past two weeks, having dropped steadily over the past month from a peak of about +14. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 9 March is −6.3.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below −8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and −8 generally indicate neutral conditions."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 11:38:59 PM
The National Hurricane Center (see the following link), provides the following statement:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/100249_MIATWDEP.shtml (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDEP+shtml/100249_MIATWDEP.shtml)

"TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.                           

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             

ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N85W TO 08N91W TO 03N100W TO 05N115W TO
03N125W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 02N
TO 09N BETWEEN 103W AND 120W."

To me presences of the intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, might provide sufficient atmospheric convective activity in the next two to three weeks to possibly disrupt the normal Walker Circulation Cell pattern.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 15, 2014, 11:54:05 PM
The following linked reference about the changing relationship between the wwv and ENSO; however, to me it seems to be overly influenced by the last 15 La Nina dominated years.  We will soon see whether the wwv leads the current possibly El Nino event by 2 to 3 months (as originally cited by deep octopus), or not:

Lucia Bunge and Allan J. Clarke, (2014), "On the warm water volume and its changing relationship with ENSO", Journal of Physical Oceanography 2014 ; e-View, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JPO-D-13-062.1)


Abstract: "Interannual equatorial Pacific 20°C isotherm depth variability since 1980 is dominated by two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes: The ‘tilt’ mode, having opposite signs in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific and in phase with zonal wind forcing and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices; and a second EOF mode of one sign across the Pacific. Because the tilt mode is of opposite sign in the eastern and western equatorial Pacific while the second EOF mode is of one sign, the second mode has been associated with the warm water volume (WWV), defined as the volume of water above the 20°C isotherm from 5°S–5°N, 120°E–80W°. Past work suggested that the WWV led the tilt mode by about 2–3 seasons, making it an ENSO predictor. But after 1998 the lead has decreased and WWV-based predictions of ENSO have failed. We constructed a sea level-based WWV proxy back to 1955 and before 1973 it also exhibited a smaller lead. Analysis of data since 1980 showed that the decreased WWV lead is related to a marked increase in the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and a marked decrease in second mode EOF amplitude and its contribution. Both pre-1973 and post-1998 periods of reduced lead were characterized by “mean” La Niña-like conditions including a westward displacement of the anomalous wind forcing. According to recent theory, and consistent with observations, such westward displacement increases the tilt mode contribution to the WWV and decreases the second mode amplitude and its WWV contribution."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 04:26:54 AM
Bruce asked for additional background on why the PDO occurs, and I find the following Wikipedia linked information to be clear:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_decadal_oscillation)

This link states:

"The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is the leading EOF of monthly sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) over the North Pacific (poleward of 20° N) after the global mean SSTA has been removed, the PDO index is the standardized principal component time series.

The PDO is detected as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean, north of 20° N. During a "warm", or "positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cool and part of the eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase, the opposite pattern occurs. It shifts phases on at least inter-decadal time scale, usually about 20 to 30 years.

The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation was named by Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying salmon production pattern results in 1997.

The prevailing hypothesis is that the PDO is caused by a "reddening" of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) combined with stochastic atmospheric forcing.

A PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in the Baja California area.

The interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO or ID) displays similar sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-level pressure (SLP) patterns, with a cycle of 15–30 years, but affects both the north and south Pacific. In the tropical Pacific, maximum SST anomalies are found away from the equator. This is quite different from the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) with a period of 8-to-12 years and maximum SST anomalies straddling the equator, thus resembling the ENSO."

It also states:

"Several studies have indicated that the PDO index can be reconstructed as the superimposition of tropical forcing and extra-tropical processes. Thus, unlike ENSO, the PDO is not a single physical mode of ocean variability, but rather the sum of several processes with different dynamic origins.

At inter-annual time scales the PDO index is reconstructed as the sum of random and ENSO induced variability in the Aleutian low, on decadal timescales ENSO teleconnections, stochastic atmospheric forcing and changes in the North Pacific oceanic gyre circulation contribute approximately equally, additionally sea surface temperature anomalies have some winter to winter persistence due to the reemergence mechanism."

The attached three figures also come from the Wiki article, and the first image shows how a positive ENSO pattern uses an "atmospheric bridge" to telecommunicate energy from the Equatorial Pacific to the Aleutian Low.

The second and third attached figures show how a positive PDO effects regional temperatures and precipitation, respectively.  These figures indicate that a positive PDO index value has a similar effect on regional temperature, and precipitation, patterns as does a positive ENSO index.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 11:11:00 AM
The Australian BoM provides (see link below) the attached image for March 16, 2014 indicating a growing probability of an El Nino event sooner, rather than later:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)

The attached image is of the 30-day rolling average of the SOI, which today is -7.9 while yesterday it was -7.5 and a sustained SOI index more negative than -8.0 indicates an El Nino event.


Also, according to the following article linear increases in the ENSO result in non-linear increases in precipitation in the Indo-Pacific area:

Christine T. Y. Chung, Scott B. Power,  Julie M. Arblaster,  Harun A. Rashid,  Gregory L. Roff, (2013), "Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific", Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8 (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-013-1892-8)


Abstract: "Precipitation changes over the Indo-Pacific during El Niño events are studied using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies and changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Linear increases in the amplitude of the El Niño SST anomaly pattern trigger nonlinear changes in precipitation amounts, resulting in shifts in the location and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). In particular, the maximum precipitation anomaly along the ITCZ and SPCZ shifts eastwards, the ITCZ shifts south towards the equator, and the SPCZ becomes more zonal. Precipitation in the equatorial Pacific also increases nonlinearly. The effect of increasing CO2 levels and warming SSTs is also investigated. Global warming generally enhances the tropical Pacific precipitation response to El Niño. The precipitation response to El Niño is found to be dominated by changes in the atmospheric mean circulation dynamics, whereas the response to global warming is a balance between dynamic and thermodynamic changes. While the dependence of projected climate change impacts on seasonal variability is well-established, this study reveals that the impact of global warming on Pacific precipitation also depends strongly on the magnitude of the El Niño event. The magnitude and structure of the precipitation changes are also sensitive to the spatial structure of the global warming SST pattern."

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 11:21:17 AM
The Australian BoM states:
"Cloudiness along the equator, near the Date Line, is an important indicator of ENSO conditions, as it typically increases (negative Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies) near and to the east of the Date Line during an El Niño event and decreases (positive OLR anomalies) during a La Niña event."

Therefore, unless I am mistaken, the attached image from the BoM for the OLR around the equatorial Date Line, show a negative OLR anomaly, which should indicate increasing cloudiness which could result in a disruption to the normal Walker Circulation into an El Nino pattern:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: SATire on March 16, 2014, 02:49:53 PM
Hi AbruptSLR,

somehow the current at the equator in the pacific has made an U-turn in the last month - now it flows towards South America. I am not sure if that is really important in respect to El Nino - but it is surely nice to look at the curents with that beautiful earth wind map:
15th February: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/02/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)
15th March: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/15/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 16, 2014, 03:46:02 PM
ASLR, re. PDO.  I tried to get through the Wiki piece but it didn't help me much. Posting here saying I don't get it doesn't help anyone I suppose but let me continue.
From Wiki. "the prevailing hypothesis is that the PDO is caused by a " reddening" of the ENSO combined with a stochastic atmospheric forcing."
 I looked up " reddening " and tried to get through Brownian noise to no avail and" stochastic forcing"reminded me of reading Tamino.   After that I went over to the JISAO Washington site and thankfully they said we don't understand the processes driving the PDO. Me neither.
 I have heard that PDO had something to do with the bifurcation of the Kuroshio current as it hits the north American continent. Sometimes the strength diverts mostly north ( warm water PDO ) and sometimes the strength is more evenly divided north and south ( cold water PDO ). Rummaging around hasn't resulted in the Kuroshio connections but that big Pacific high we had  makes me wonder about it's placement this winter and also how a weakened Aleutian low plays into all this? If I had a professor to bounce this off of those are the questions I would be asking .
 Maybe I should stick to talking about fish ?
     
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 05:22:56 PM
Bruce,
Not that I am an expert of any kind, but I will say that: The ENSO and PDO phenomena are prime examples of systems that are best described by "Chaos Theory".  Unfortunately, both of these systems are too complex to be currently addressed using pure chaos theory, and therefore, we can revert to linear Global/Regional Circulation Models (and ensemble mean projections, as example for the MJO see the first attached image of an ensemble mean projection issued on March 16 2014 saying that the MJO will not be in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific before the end of March) , and/or we can use statistics and empirical functions (see the second attached image of an empirical projection issued on March 16 2014 saying that the MJO will be in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific before the end of March).

Regarding the two terms that you mentioned from the Wiki article: (a) A purely stochastic system is one whose state is non-deterministic (i.e., "random"); and the atmosphere is a good example; and (b) Reddened refers to red and white noise on the Nino-indices, which is to say red plus white noise on the SST anomalies (ie during a neutral ENSO condition you have white noise for equatorial Pacific SST anomaly (SSTA); otherwise, when the Nino-indices show either an El Nino or a La Nina condition, then you have a red noise signal with regard to the equatorial Pacific SSTA.

If you feel up to it you can download and read the linked free access papers on such matters, but all researchers will admit that the theories about IPO, PDO, MJO, ENSO and other "Chaotic" systems (all with strange attractors) are works in progress even in a stationary world, let alone in our current non-stationary world:

http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/artikel3_syphilip_color.pdf (http://www.knmi.nl/publications/fulltexts/artikel3_syphilip_color.pdf)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1665.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2007JCLI1665.1)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 05:34:07 PM
While my previous posts have discussed both the potential impact, and uncertainties (see my immediate prior post), of the MJO reaching the Date Line area by the end of March 2014 in flipping the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern by creating storm activity near the Equatorial Pacific Date Line area.

I also posted earlier today that the Australian BoM provides OLR anomaly data indicating that cloudiness is currently accumulating near the Equatorial Pacific Date Line area, and the following Cyclocane Tropical Storm 48-hour forecast (issued on March 16 2014) and the following storm warming (from Cyclocane) indicates that there we be considerable convective activity near the Equatorial Pacific Date Line area, that would make it unnecessary for the MJO to make it to the Date Line area in order to change the Walker Cell to an El Nino pattern:

Cyclocane forecast for the South Central Pacific:

"THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.8S
170.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 170.7E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST
OF VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS
ROTATING ABOUT A CENTROID (THE CURRENT POSITION) WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE LLCC. A 160336Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS TWO
DISTINCT SMALL LLCCS WITH OVERALL WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 152132Z
ASCAT IMAGE ALSO SUPPORTS MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS AND SHOWS 15 TO 20
KNOT WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER MODERATE
EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 06:16:33 PM
SATire,

Thanks for the earth map surface current map links for the Pacific Ocean for February and March 15, here is a link for March 16th showing what looks like an increasing tread to an El Nino condition:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/16/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/16/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)

While I believe that deep octopus is more qualified (see his reply #173 on March 9) than myself to talk about the transition of surface and subsurface Pacific Equatorial Currents from a "Normal" to an "El Nino" condition, I will provide the following:

The first attached image shows a cartoon of the stereotypical changes in atmospheric and subsurface conditions from a "Normal" to an "El Nino" condition.

The second attached image shows a more elaborate cartoon for an "El Nino" condition showing the interaction of the surface, subsurface, wind and storm activities.

The third attached image shows another cartoon of how the Pacific Equatorial Counter current strengthens in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific during an El Nino condition (note that I am not sure that this is a very accurate cartoon as the atmospheric pattern seems to me to be more like a "Normal" Walker Cell pattern, but I am posting it to illustrate how in an El Nino condition the surface ocean Equatorial Countercurrent strengthens).

The fourth attached image shows "Normal" ocean surface currents, indicating the complex interaction of all of these currents on the state of the Pacific Ocean and all of these Pacific currents effect and are effected by a change to an El Nino state.

Also, I agree that just watching the earth map of Equatorial Pacific ocean surface currents is fascinating by itself, and it will be interesting to watch it change in the coming month(s).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 16, 2014, 10:21:40 PM
Further to my post today to Bruce Steele (reply #239) about the differences between truly "Chaotic Systems" (eg: ENSO, PDO, IPO, MJO, etc) and approximate forecasts of such chaotic systems base on: (a) process-based GCM ensemble mean projections; and/or (b) statistical-based empirical indices/parameters/graphs etc. (eg Nino 3.4, SOI, MEI, etc), I would like to make the following comments:

(A) El Nino events are statistically more intense (ie can have higher index values) than La Nina events (see the first attached image of the Multivariate ENSO Index, MEI from 1950 to March 6 2014) , thus using the 2010-11 La Nina MEI value of about -2, I would guess that the 2014-15 El Nino could well have a MEI value of over +3.
(B) Models indicate that a Super El Nino can trigger both the PDO and IPO oscillations from a negative phase into a positive phase, as was apparently the case for the 1983-84 Super El Nino that was followed by about 15-years of positive IPO.  Therefore, if we do has a Super El Nino in the 2014-15 season it will likely kick the IPO into a sustained positive phase.
(C) The following linked reference by Power & Kociuba (2010) states: "The 2010 global warming signal is already a major contributor to interdecadal variability in the SOI, equal to 45% of the standard deviation of 30-year running averages of the SOI. This figure is projected to increase to nearly 340% by the end of the 21st century."  This statistical evidence supports the other evidence provided by the selected references at the end of this post that El Nino's will get stronger with increasing global warming.

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/sbp/journal_articles/GW_the_SOI_Power_Kocuiba_CD_2010.pdf (http://www.cawcr.gov.au/staff/sbp/journal_articles/GW_the_SOI_Power_Kocuiba_CD_2010.pdf)

(D) As I have stated before, I believe that there is both paleo and modern observations that climate sensitivity is greater during warming periods than during cooling periods, and that as most process-based GCM projections do not include a ratcheting influence of strong El Nino events to strengthen such positive feedback factors as polar amplification, and carbon cycle sensitivity (among others); I am concerned that at least for the next 15-years we will see greater rates of global warming acceleration due to ENSO/PDO/IPO feedback mechanisms, than are currently recognized.

Selected References on ENSO and Global Warming:
[1]   Cai, W., Borlace, S., Lengaigne, M., Rensch, P.V., Collins, M., Vecchi, G., Timmermann, A., Santoso, A., McPhaden, M., Lixin Wu, Matthew H. England, Guojian Wang, Eric Guilyardi & Fei-Fei Jin, (2014), "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2100.
[2]   Cowtan, K. & Way, R.G., (2013), "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends", Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1002/qj.2297.
[3]   England, M.H., McGregor, S., Spence, P., Meehl, G.A., Timmermann, A., Cai, W., Gupta, A.S., Michael J. McPhaden, M.J., Purich A. & Santoso, A., (2014), "Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106.
[4]   Fasullo, J.T. and Trenberth, K.E., (2012), "A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity", Science, vol. 338, pp. 792-794, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227465. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227465.)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 16, 2014, 10:59:44 PM
AbruptSLR,

You beat me to the punch on this, but here is more. If you read the discussion on the MEI page, Klaus Wolter gives the detailed breakdown of his more bullish forecast of an early El Nino. I think he anticipates it appearing early, he commented that he expected to provide another update sooner than the first week of April. One more item, he says the SOI has been the noisiest of the El Nino indicators, so not so sure he is putting alot of weight on where it currently reads.

For his detailed analysis, see:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Also, for what it is worth, I compiled a comparison of the 1950 to 2014 MEI, normal 3 month ENSO and the monthly ENSO indices. It was a bit of work but worth the time.

Here are the recent readings in comparison:



   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 12:36:25 AM
A4R,

Thanks for the information/analysis.  I admit that in the middle of the Spring barrier there is plenty of unknowns/uncertainties that could cause the El Nino train to come off of its tracks.  Nevertheless, I see so many indications that we are already in the initial stages of the transition into an El Nino event, that it seems to me that by the beginning of April we will be locked into conditions that will support at least a weak El Nino thru at least this Summer.  Therefore, the main question currently in my mind is whether we will get more strong Kelvin waves (EKWs) to boost conditions up into the "Super" category above an MEI of +2, while my gut tells me that we might even exceed an MEI of +3 in the Dec 2014 to February 2015 timeframe, given: (a) the amount of heat in the Pacific Ocean; (b) the fact that the "hiatus" has masked the true extent of the current global warming; (c) that the ensemble forecasts show clear signs of strong positive PDO values in April and May; (d) that if I am right and an El Nino begins by early April (by all ENSO indices not just SOI) then there will be the longest time in modern observations to build-up a Super El Nino by the coming austral summer (note that the Nino3.4 index for the 1997-98 El Nino did not exceed +0.5 until the week of April 23rd).  Fortunately, as a blogger, I do not need to be as conservative as professional ENSO forecasters need to be (correctly so), so I have a window between now and Klaus Wolter's next up-date, to post about the unfolding of this potentially critical event.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 02:44:25 AM
The linked reference may be of somewhat academic interest with regard to ENSO and the IPO, but I found the statement that the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is the world's largest rainfall band during the austral summer, interesting:

M. J. Salinger, Simon McGree, Florent Beucher, Scott B. Power, François Delage (2014), "A new index for variations in the position of the South Pacific convergence zone 1910/11–2011/2012", Climate Dynamics , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-2035-y

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-2035-y (http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-013-2035-y)

Abstract: "Quality controlled and recently homogenised mean sea level pressure records for the South Pacific are used to specify the location and variability of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) during the austral warm season (November–April). The SPCZ is the world’s largest rainfall band during the austral summer, when it dominates the climate of the South Pacific. A new index called the South Pacific convergence zone index (SPCZI) is derived, and is shown to be coherent with changes in low level wind convergence associated with the SPCZ. This index replaces the earlier SPCZ position index because it uses higher quality mean sea level pressure data than the superseded index and extends the time series further forward in time. The SPCZI allows interannual to decadal variability in the climate of the South Pacific to be tracked for more than a century from 1910/1911 to 2011/2012. During El Niño episodes the SPCZ is displaced by about 1°–3° east, and La Niña events 1°–3° west of the mean position on average. The index indicates a striking movement eastward for the period 1977/78–1998/99, compared with 1944/45–1976/77 in association with the Interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). The eastward movement of the SPCZ in the late twentieth century is related to significant precipitation trends in the South Pacific region. Since 1998/99 the SPCZ has regressed westward with the negative phase change of the IPO. The long-term trend in the SPCZI is very small relative to the interannual to decadal variability and is not statistically significant, suggesting that there has been little overall change in the mean position of the SPCZ over the past century."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 03:16:20 AM
While I am aware that the SOI is the noisiest of all ENSO indices, it can also give earlier warnings of strong El Nino events than other, more process-based conservative, indices.  Therefore, it is possible that the first attached image of the SOI 30-day rolling average value of -8.4 may be the first indication that the Pacific has now changed into an El Nino state, and possibly the beginning of a strong El Nino event.

The second image of NOAA's ensemble Nino3.4 forecast issued on March 16 2014 (based on March 6 to 15 conditions) indicates that some of the process-based models have Nino3.4 values over +2 by November 2014, and an ensemble mean forecast of about +1.5 by the mean of OND.  As NOAA's Nino3.4 is reasonably conservative, I expect the actual Nino3.4 value to be well about +2 before December 2014.  This ENSO season should be quite something to watch unfold.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 03:36:48 AM
For those interested in the monthly SOI values for the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 Super El Nino events, I provide the following abbreviated table of monthly SOI values from the Australian BoM website:

Year   Jan     Feb     Mar     Apr     May    Jun     Jul      Aug     Sep     Oct     Nov     Dec
1981   2.7     -3.2    -16.6  -5.5     7.6     11.5    9.4      5.9     7.5    -5.0     2.6      4.7
1982   9.4      0.6     2.4    -3.8    -8.2    -20.1   -19.3   -23.6  -21.4   -20.2  -31.1   -21.3
1983   -30.6  -33.3  -28.0   -17.0   6.0     -3.1    -7.6     0.1     9.9      4.2    -0.7      0.1

1996    8.4     1.1      6.2     7.8    1.3     13.9     6.8    4.6      6.9      4.2    -0.1      7.2
1997    4.1     13.3   -8.5   -16.2  -22.4   -24.1   -9.5   -19.8  -14.8   -17.8  -15.2    -9.1
1998   -23.5  -19.2  -28.5  -24.4    0.5      9.9     14.6    9.8    11.1    10.9    12.5   13.3

This abbreviated table implies that we could see SOI values of between -28 to more negative than -33 this coming austral summer.



Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 06:56:17 AM
For anyone wondering how strange attractors in chaos theory could be used to project ENSO, IPO, PDO, etc. behavior in a chaotic forced atmosphere-ocean circulation system, then I recommend that you read the linked 2010 article at skepticalscience.com:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/chaos-theory-global-warming-can-climate-be-predicted-intermediate.htm (http://www.skepticalscience.com/chaos-theory-global-warming-can-climate-be-predicted-intermediate.htm)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 08:06:49 AM
The first attached image showing the location of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, SPCZ is from the following Wiki link (after Folland et al 2002), and the following quote is also from the Wiki link (see also the reference in reply #245):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_convergence_zone (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pacific_convergence_zone)

"Research into SPCZ movements of the 20th century are linked to changes in the IPO and ENSO. Folland et al., 2002 defined an index to describe the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) with sea surface temperature and night marine air temperature to determine how the SPCZ varies with the IPO. When the IPO index has negative temperature anomalies, the SPCZ is displaced southwest and moves northeastward when the IPO index has positive temperature anomalies. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a metric for describing warm- and cold-phase conditions associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and can also describe movements of the position of the SPCZ. Negative SOI index values are associated with warm-phase or El Nino-like conditions and a northeastward displacement of the SPCZ. Positive SOI index values, on the other hand, describe cold-phase or La Nina-like conditions and a southwestward displacement of the SPCZ."

This reference clearly indicate that El Nino conditions are associated with a Northeastward displacement of the SPCZ, while the second and third attached image (from the following linked sites, for the Western and Eastern Pacific, respectively) show the cloud cover for March 17 2014 that is associated with the SPCZ, and these images clearly indicate that the SPCZ has shifted to the Northeast indicating El Nino-like conditions:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/MTVS.JPG (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/MTVS.JPG)
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GWVS.JPG (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GWVS.JPG)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 03:05:14 PM
I get the general impression that some bloggers/readers have some degree of confusion about the various: (a) facets/aspects; (b) thresholds/interactions, and (c) measures/indices associated with the different types of ENSO phenomena.  Some people tend to focus on only the Nino3.4 measure, associated with the sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA in the 3.4 box shown in the first attached image; however, the other boxes labeled 1, 2, 3 and 4 also have Nino indices associated with SSTAs in their respective surface area boxes.  However, the SOI is focused on anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere, SH, atmospheric system and is more closely related to the IPO that to the PDO, as the IPO considers both the SH and the Northern Hemisphere, NH, while the PDO only considers the NH.  As it has been evident for some time the ENSO phenomena has multiple different forcing and feedback factors that occur in different magnitudes, locations and periods.  Indeed, the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is calculated using the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C).
As the ENSO phenomenon is clearly complex, it is best to use the different indices for different purposes, rather than to say one is better than the others.  For example, when I stated my opinion that it is likely that the crest of a Kelvin wave will reach San Francisco by June 1 2014, this is an ocean dominated phenomena, so I based that opinion largely on my interpretation of the timing of the Nino3.4 index.  However, the SOI is more closely related to the IPO and the IPO index is more closely related to Super El Nino events (than the other indices) therefore, when I stated my opinion that when the SOI reached a value of -8.5 on March 17 2014, I took this as an indication that the probability of a Super El Nino being reached this year had increased.  However, if I want to be most confident that an ENSO event actually occurs in 2014, I will tend to rely on five continuous months of MEI values above +0.5; as it probably has the best signal to noise ratio of all indices (that said in my opinion it is likely that the MEI will exceed +0.5 by the end of April).  Similarly, Nino 1 and 2 are useful in determining the timing and strength of the Equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) as it approaches South America (and note that not all El Nino events result in a warm equatorial pool extending all the way to South America, so Nino 3 and 4 also are valuable). 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 03:22:23 PM
In my last post (reply #250) I mentioned that there are different types of ENSO events, and the following extract from the linked Wikipedia entry elaborates on this matter:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o)

Extract: "The traditional Niño, also called Eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, involves temperature anomalies in the Eastern Pacific. However, in the last two decades, nontraditional El Niños were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly (Niño 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly arises in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4). The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) El Niño, "dateline" El Niño (because the anomaly arises near the dateline), or El Niño "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different"). There are flavors of ENSO additional to EP and CP types and some scientists argue that ENSO exists as a continuum often with hybrid types.
The effects of the CP El Niño are different from those of the traditional EP El Niño—e.g., the new El Niño leads to more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic.
The recent discovery of El Niño Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming. However, comprehensive satellite data go back only to 1979. More research must be done to find the correlation and study past El Niño episodes. More generally, there is no scientific consensus on how/if climate change may affect ENSO.
There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. Indeed, a number of studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both, either arguing the reliable record is too short to detect such a distinction, finding no distinction or trend using other statistical approaches, or that other types should be distinguished, such as standard and extreme El Niños. Following the asymmetric nature of the warm and cold phases of ENSO, a study could not identify such distinctions for La Niña, both in observations and in the climate models.
The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986."
In closing, I would like to note that in previous posts, I cited evidence that a strong CP type of El Nino occurred in 1917-18, that influenced the death toll from the concurrent Spanish Flu pandemic (even though no Kelvin wave was registered at the Fort Point tidal station in San Francisco, probably because the EKW associated with this event, was too weak to make a Coastal Trapped Kelvin wave).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 03:57:09 PM
I am posting that attached two images not only for completeness of record, but also because I believe that they support the idea that the Walker Cell will switch to an El Nino condition by the end of March.

The first image is of the 48-hrs Storm Track forecast for March 17 2014.  The second image is of the Albany U vorticity & wind forecast through March 24 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 17, 2014, 06:44:27 PM
With respect to the Walker Circulation, I've examined data on the NCEP/NCAR Renalysis pages, to see if I could uncover some hard evidence suggesting Walker Circulation break downs during El Niño. Sure enough, recent La Niña and El Niño events tell two different tales: at the 850 hPa height of the atmosphere (lower level) and the 200 hPa height (upper level), zonal winds—which are along a latitudinal (east-west) path—will move in directions opposite of each other.

In neutral ENSO conditions, as ASLR has shown on a few schematics, lower level trade winds will have easterly movements (east to west), while upper level winds will have westerly movements (west to east.) Given that the western Pacific is normally an area of high convection, it makes sense that warm air should rise and pressure drops, and air sinks over the eastern Pacific, completing the Walker Circulation. So, trade winds in the lower troposphere move west, rise over Indonesia/Papua New Guinea, travel east in the stratosphere, and sink over the eastern Pacific.

So, I've provided a few graphics depicting the average zonal wind anomalies that show the tendency throughout the height of the atmosphere over the Pacific basin (in this case, from 100 E to 60 W) during the winter season. Winter because this is the peak of ENSO activity. Again, the x-axis shows the zonal wind anomalies, and they represent the average for the 100 E to 60 W basin. Negative anomalies suggest strong easterlies, and positive anomalies suggest strong westerlies.

La Niña is an exaggeration of the Walker Circulation, and so we tend to see strong easterlies (negative) at the 850 hPa level, and strong westerlies (positive) at the 200 hPa level. We get a curve like the ones shown for the La Niña events that I've chosen: 1998-1999, 2007-2008, and 2010-2011.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VNLZoSsucY4/UycvbVCpRQI/AAAAAAAAAXE/RuyeanxJY5k/w636-h492-no/output_cMsevZ.gif)

What we see during El Niño events is a total inversion of the curve, and so we see strong westerlies (positive) at the 850 hPa level, and strong easterlies (negative) at the 200 hPa level. See in the animation the examples for the El Niños of 1982-1983, 1986-1987, 1997-1998, and 2009-2010.
(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-tS29bdNNdpU/UycvncrQhKI/AAAAAAAAAXY/w5vTJngjjdY/w636-h492-no/output_5TIGYl.gif)

The El Niño animation shows the Walker Circulation breaking down.

I'm pleased with these results. We see some consistent patterns here for these different events, and we may be able to use this to get clear evidence of a Walker Circulation break down in this year.

Finally, here's a graphic of this same concept for the March 1-15, 2014 period. What we get is the evidence of weakening trade winds at the lower level (a result of the westerly wind bursts), but not yet a slackening of the upper level winds. However, the overall wind curve does suggest an inversion, like we would expect in an El Niño. The westerly tendency is strongest at the 600 hPa level, near the tropopause, before boomeranging back to slightly weaker westerlies in the stratosphere. I don't pretend to know how likely this inverted curve portends a Walker Circulation breakdown, but it is fascinating to see it compared to the El Niño events.
(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-WPJbORZDxfI/Uycx_cOV29I/AAAAAAAAAXs/_3m0Fq9m0zI/w636-h492-no/march2014_compday.QZtXPk5B9z.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 07:18:29 PM
deep octopus,

Your graphs about monitoring the transition of the Walker Cell from a neutral to an El Nino condition are fascinating, and I look forward to see more graphs as the El Nino event unfolds.

In the meantime, I have extracted the attached three images from "Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP: 17 March 2014"

The first image shows the increase SST anomaly across the Equatorial Pacific is generally becoming more positive.
The second image shows the WWB that helped reinforce the EKW.
The third image shows the heat content of the Equatorial Pacific with time, indicating the EKW has continued to travel eastward.

When the EKW reaches South America I expect the Nino indices to rapidly transition from negative to positive values.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 09:00:16 PM
The first attached image from earth wind map (of surface winds) for March 17 2014, clearly shows the current location of SPCZ, which is shifted to the Northeast of its normal position shown in the second attached image (which funnels cloud activity closer to Indonesia).  In its current location the SPCZ should funnel continuous cloud activity into the Equatorial zone right near the Date Line, where storm activity is associated with the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino condition:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 17, 2014, 10:13:29 PM
In order to better understand how a Super El Nino can result in more telecommunication of Tropical Pacific energy to both the Arctic and the Antarctic I recommend reviewing the linked free access pdf of a 2010 paper by Fogt et al entitled: "Understanding the SAM influence on the South Pacific ENSO Teleconnection"

http://polarmet.osu.edu/PMG_publications/fogt_bromwich_climdyn_2011.pdf (http://polarmet.osu.edu/PMG_publications/fogt_bromwich_climdyn_2011.pdf)

The attached image is from a PowerPoint presentation about this paper and it shows how atmospheric Rossby waves of alternating high and low pressure systems telecommunication energy from the Equatorial Pacific to both the Arctic and the Antarctic as a function of ENSO and SAM.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 12:39:30 AM
While the ENSO telecommunicates energy both north and south to accelerate polar amplification, the following linked article emphasizes that the Indian Ocean has a special relationship with the decadal periodicity of the ENSO intensity variability:

J.S. Chowdary, Anant Parekh, C. Gnanaseelan, P. Sreenivas, (2014), "Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections to the Indian Ocean in a coupled model: Special emphasis on decay phase of El Niño", Global and Planetary Change, Volume 112, January 2014, Pages 33–40; http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.003 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.003)


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002415 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002415)


Abstract: "Inter-decadal modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections to tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) is investigated in the coupled general circulation model Climate Forecast System (CFS) using a hundred year integration. The model is able to capture the periodicity of El Niño variability, which is similar to that of the observations. The maximum TIO/north Indian Ocean (NIO) SST warming (during spring following the decay phase of El Niño) associated with El Niño is well captured by the model. Detailed analysis reveals that the surface heat flux variations mainly contribute to the El Niño forced TIO SST variations both in observations and model. However, spring warming is nearly stationary throughout the model integration period, indicating poor inter-decadal El Niño teleconnections. The observations on the other hand displayed maximum SST warming with strong seasonality from epoch to epoch. The model El Niño decay delayed by more than two seasons, results in persistent TIO/NIO SST warming through the following December unlike in the observations. The ocean wave adjustments and persistent westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific are responsible for late decay of El Niño in the model. Consistent late decay of El Niño, throughout the model integration period (low variance), is mainly responsible for the poor inter-decadal ENSO teleconnections to TIO/NIO. This study deciphers that the model needs to produce El Niño decay phase variability correctly to obtain decadal-modulations in ENSO teleconnection."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 01:28:22 PM
If anything it appears that the transition to an El Nino condition is locking into place as indicated by the following March 18 2014 data from the Australian BoM: (a) the -9.3 SOI value indicated by the first image; and (b) the second image shows that is the highest cloud accumulation at the Equatorial Pacific near the Date Line in several years (which should help transition the Walker Cell to an El Nino condition).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 18, 2014, 01:51:42 PM
The Kelvin wave seems to have "officially" punched through the sea surface at the nose. I expect a rapid warming of the central Pacific to begin from this point on.

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/Zo-HwyTrhMKZcYuapXjcAMra1h4tmpnz9bz1o6HYTQ=w526-h474)

This source of heat is much greater than what 2009 experienced at this point in time. In March 2009, the warm Kelvin wave that would eventually lead to an El Niño was still far to the west and did not reach the high temperature anomalies we're seeing today.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Fmnth_gif%2Fxz%2Fmnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.2009.03.gif&hash=091739909be1ee6e18d59b4e18ceb872)

Contrast that with March 1997, and the meaning is clear.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Fmnth_gif%2Fxz%2Fmnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.1997.03.gif&hash=808b8c4098a1bf67c69816022f575eed)

If that's any indication, 2014 could be a quite strong El Niño, and would easily force two consecutive "hottest year" records in 2014 and 2015.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 03:06:29 PM
I strongly concur with deep octopus that bases on the March 14 2014 Kelvin wave subsea temperature anomaly profile that we are already in the process of transitioning to an El Nino condition and I think that by the first or second week in April the NINO3.4 index should be above 0.5 (which will only reinforce the rapid transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern, already in progress).  Furthermore, I post the first attached image of an alternate NOAA profile for March 14 2014 which indicates that the highest temperature anomaly at the core of the Kelvin wave, EKW, is actual 6 degrees C; which implies that the 2014-15 El Nino might actually be stronger than the 1997-98 El Nino.
I would also like to note that as illustrated by the second attached figure, that when the EKW runs into South America, part of its energy is reflected as Rossby waves that run back westward on both the North and South sides of the incoming EKW; which in-turn should set-up another strong EKW to travel across the Pacific in the October to November timeframe, that could result in a Super El Nino in the Dec 2014 to Jan 2015 timeframe (and quite possibly the strongest El Nino on record due to the reinforcement from AGW).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 03:54:00 PM
As it looks like we have got a strong El Nino in the making, I thought that I would post this cartoon of typical responses to Jetstream, rain patterns, etc. of a strong El Nino condition during Dec to May:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 04:23:39 PM
Not to appear too simple minded, but the attached image is from a year or two ago and compares climate sensitivity with time and indicates that at some uncertain point in the future that slow feedbacks can pass a threshold and accelerate non-linearly taking climate sensitivity into the range of 6 to 7 degrees C.  As we now know that: (a) fast feedback climate sensitivity has a mean value closer to 4.5 degrees C, (b) the positive feedback from Arctic albedo is 40% higher than previously thought; (c) natural organic methane emissions (from both wetlands and the permafrost) are higher than expected and growing; (d) CO2 absorption is decreasing; etc..  Is it possible that a sufficiently strong El Nino event in 2014-15 could trigger several of the slow feedback mechanisms past their thresholds into at least temporarily non-linear positive feedback growth rates?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on March 18, 2014, 04:32:26 PM
Hi ASLR,

My post on the Mauna Loa CO2 thread was written with the same mindset... what is this supposed to deliver? Not much good, I fear...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 05:17:15 PM
I have had some trouble finding the most recent IPO values (however, based on the fact that the PDO has just become positive in the past two months, I assume that IPO values are also positive now), so I thought that I would post values from the most recent positive phase of the IPO cycle; which includes both the 1982-83 and the 1997-98 Super El Nino events.  I assume that the IPO is currently giving positive reinforcement to our growing El Nino as the SPCZ has shifted to the Northwest as occurs during a positive IPO; however, based on the table below, I would guess that the current IPO value is relatively low.  Nevertheless, I am somewhat concerned that if we have another Super El Nino in about seven to eight years time then the IPO values will be at their peak values and may make such a future Super El Nino stronger than any other such event in recorded history:

IPO 11 YEAR LOW PASS HadSST2 Chebyshev filtered version
Chris Folland, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter, UK

            JFM       AMJ       JAS       OND

  1977    -0.114     0.018     0.150     0.282
  1978     0.414     0.545     0.673     0.799
  1979     0.921     1.039     1.153     1.262
  1980     1.365     1.463     1.554     1.638
  1981     1.716     1.786     1.850     1.906
  1982     1.955     1.997     2.032     2.060
  1983     2.082     2.097     2.107     2.111
  1984     2.110     2.104     2.094     2.080
  1985     2.062     2.042     2.019     1.994
  1986     1.968     1.940     1.912     1.884
  1987     1.855     1.827     1.800     1.773
  1988     1.748     1.723     1.701     1.679
  1989     1.659     1.641     1.624     1.609
  1990     1.594     1.581     1.569     1.557
  1991     1.545     1.533     1.521     1.508
  1992     1.494     1.479     1.462     1.443
  1993     1.422     1.399     1.372     1.343
  1994     1.311     1.276     1.237     1.196
  1995     1.151     1.104     1.054     1.001
  1996     0.946     0.888     0.829     0.768
  1997     0.707     0.644     0.581     0.518
  1998     0.456     0.395     0.335     0.277
  1999     0.221     0.167     0.116     0.069
  2000     0.024    -0.017    -0.054    -0.088
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: jai mitchell on March 18, 2014, 06:34:35 PM

If that's any indication, 2014 could be a quite strong El Niño, and would easily force two consecutive "hottest year" records in 2014 and 2015.

deep octopus,



if your estimation is correct, we could see an analogous warming to the 1996-1998 period of .4C in 2 years.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1996.6/to:1998.6/mean:3/plot/gistemp/from:1996.6/to:1998.6/trend (http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/gistemp/from:1996.6/to:1998.6/mean:3/plot/gistemp/from:1996.6/to:1998.6/trend)

This would push us to within .8C of additional warming before we reach the 2C pre-industrial catastrophic warming threshold.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.architecture2030.org%2Fimages%2Fglobal_temp_projections_rcp_scenarios3.jpg&hash=84f1b9a383df90170b476d123b1ef7f8)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 07:43:16 PM
jai,

According to the first attached image after Cowtan & Way (2013): (a) you need to add at least 0.05 C to AR5 due to mis-measurement; and (b) if you look at the average temperature increase during the positive IPO/PDO phase from 1985 to 2000 you have a permanent 0.5 C increase in just 15 years.  Furthermore, the second attached image shows that the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption effect might have temporarily decreased global temperatures by about 0.4 C.  Thus by the time that our current positive IPO phase ends (say around 2029); we maybe be much closer to the 2 C temperature rise limit than most people are currently expecting (say: 0.8 + 0.05 + 0.5 +0.4(ie a combined aerosol & climate sensitivity number) = 1.75 C).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 18, 2014, 08:38:00 PM
jai provided the link below in the "hydrology" thread; however, I am providing the earth wind map at 250hPa link here because if you look at the Walker Cell in the El Nino condition shown in my Reply #241, you will see that the westerly wind pattern at 250hPa would promote the conversion of the "normal Walker Cell" to an El Nino pattern:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-119.66,2.19,533 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-119.66,2.19,533)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Rubikscube on March 18, 2014, 09:24:30 PM
Thank you guys for all the great work you're puting down in this thread (especially ASLR). A very interesting discussion indeed.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Theta on March 18, 2014, 11:04:11 PM
Not to appear too simple minded, but the attached image is from a year or two ago and compares climate sensitivity with time and indicates that at some uncertain point in the future that slow feedbacks can pass a threshold and accelerate non-linearly taking climate sensitivity into the range of 6 to 7 degrees C.  As we now know that: (a) fast feedback climate sensitivity has a mean value closer to 4.5 degrees C, (b) the positive feedback from Arctic albedo is 40% higher than previously thought; (c) natural organic methane emissions (from both wetlands and the permafrost) are higher than expected and growing; (d) CO2 absorption is decreasing; etc..  Is it possible that a sufficiently strong El Nino event in 2014-15 could trigger several of the slow feedback mechanisms past their thresholds into at least temporarily non-linear positive feedback growth rates?

In this case, the coming El-Nino could act as a volcano of Positive Feedbacks, quite a daunting thought considering how high the global temperature could go in this context in such a short space of time. I suppose that would be a worst case scenario?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ccgwebmaster on March 19, 2014, 12:41:34 AM
Is it possible that a sufficiently strong El Nino event in 2014-15 could trigger several of the slow feedback mechanisms past their thresholds into at least temporarily non-linear positive feedback growth rates?

One would suspect this to be potentially possible - but I think one would need to look at specific modes of operation or mechanisms by which this could happen?

For example, is there any correlation between El Nino events and Amazon rainforest precipitation? If so - is it unhelpful or unhelpful?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 12:42:30 AM
I am providing this post mostly for continuity of records, and also because it appears to me that a new tropical cyclone is forming near 20S & 150W; which appears to be drawing the Southern Equatorial Westerlies a bit further to the east.

The first image from Cyclocane shows the 48-hr Tropical Storm March 18 forecast, showing a possible cyclone near 20S & 150W.
The second image from earth wind maps of surface winds on March 18, and it looks like a tropical cyclone is forming near 20S &150W.
The third image is a satellite photo of the Eastern Pacific on March 18, showing that cloud cover is still following the SPCZ, and that there are a lot of clouds near the equatorial Date Line area.
The fourth image shows the Albany U Vorticity & wind forecast for March 26 2014, showing consistent westerly winds (in the Western Pacific) to about the equatorial Date Line (which is the pattern that one might expect if the Walker Cell were changing into an El Nino configuration by that time).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 01:20:44 AM
ccgwebmaster,

Regarding possible specific possible positive feedback mechanisms that could be temporarily accelerated by a Super El Nino:
In Reply #148, I suggest the following three specific examples:
(a) Sherwood et al 2014 state that the influence of convective mixing (down-drafting) dehydrates the cloud cover near the equator but north of 5N and south of 5S, increases with increasing humidity (see also Reply #161), thus as a Super El Nino will clearly increase the humid boundary layer along the Equatorial Pacific; it is probable that a Super El Nino will result in greater solar irradiance near the Equatorial Pacific, but north of 5N and south of 5S;
(b) Per the figures that I posted in Replies #68 & #261, Super El Nino's result in more drought from Dec-Feb in the following rainforests: Eastern Amazon, North Australia, Indonesia; and from June-Aug. in: India, Central America, Indonesia and Northern and Eastern Australia; which should accelerate CO2 emissions (and reduced absorption) in these area due to dying vegetation; and when the rains eventually return the submerged dead vegetation can promote methane emissions (see link below and Wang/Peter Cox references):

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-methane-releases-could-be-wetlands-or-wellheads/ (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-methane-releases-could-be-wetlands-or-wellheads/)

Wang, X., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Myneni, R.B., Cox, P., Heimann, M., Miller, J., Peng, S.P., Wang, T., Yang, H. and Chen, A., (2014), "A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations", Nature, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/nature12915.

Prof. Peter Cox: "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model"

(c) Per the figures in Replies #68 & 261; a Super El Nino warms Alaska, Eastern Canada and Western Canada, all of which have permafrost, which should result in accelerated CO2 and methane emissions.

I am sure that they are many of specific positive feedbacks, but I need to go now.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 04:28:05 AM
I thought that I would make a quick post to note that the 30 day moving SOI for March 19 2014 is -10.3, indicating that probability that a the Pacific is transitioning into an El Nino state is very high.


Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 02:21:10 PM
Seeing as the SOI graph seems to be frequently downloaded, I thought that I would post the March 19 2014 update as the first attached figure; and I would like to note that as this SOI figure reports 30-day moving average values, the fact that it has become more negative by 2.8 points in just four days, implies that it will at least continue to become more negative for several more days no matter what the atmosphere does from Tahiti to Darwin during the period.

Also, the second, third and fourth images that I am posting reported weekly averaged time series for the Nino 1, Nino 3 and Nino 3.4 indices, respectively, with the latest reported values being the average for the week from March 10 thru March 16, 2014.  The second image shows that Nino 1 has been positive for some weeks now, indicating that the intensity of upwelling and of the Humboldt Current is lower than normal as indicated by the latest +0.11 value.  The third image shows that Nino 3 has risen sharply in recent weeks as the Eastern Equatorial Pacific has warmed quickly even without the influence of the EKW, as indicated by the latest value of -0.01.  The fourth image shows that the Nino 3.4 index is also rising quickly recently, but that due to the shape of the EKW the Central Equatorial Pacific has not warmed as quickly as the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and indicated by the latest -0.05 value for Nino 3.4 (which is expected to rise quickly as the EKW is now surfacing).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 02:42:24 PM
More recent evidence that we are locking in quickly on a switch of the entire Pacific to an El Nino condition (if we are not already locked) include the following:

The first attached image from Cyclocane of the 48-hrs Tropical Storm Forecast issued March 19 2014 (also see the Tropical Cyclone report below), indicates: (a) continuing atmospheric convection on both sides of the equator near the Date Line; (b) increased possibility of a cyclone along the line of the SPCZ; and (c) the recent formation of Tropical Cyclone 20P (Mike) near 20S & 159W; which appears to be interacting with the SPCZ to influence/strengthen the westerlies all the way up to 5S.

Cyclocane Report on: "A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 190600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 20P (MIKE) WAS LOCATED NEAR
20.5S 159.3W, APPROXIMATELY 751 NM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."

The second image of the earth wind map for surface winds on March 19 2014 clearly shows that Cyclone Mike is increasing rapidly in intensity as it migrates slowly southward.

The third image from the Australian BoM shows the cloud activity near the equatorial Date Line area issued March 19 2014; which indicates a rapid increase in cloud activity (to a level not seen in several years) near the area needed to transition the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern (even without the help of the MJO).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 19, 2014, 07:24:06 PM
I serve on an advisory board to NOAA. It is called the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary
Advisory Council. We are meeting in a couple days and I forwarded this letter the Sanctuary Staff for distribution.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.250.html

Mike, Everyone who is on SAC and all ocean related businesses should be aware that there is a very strong El Nino on the way.  There are ocean temperature anomalies at 6 degrees C that have moved across the Pacific at depth pushed by Kelvin Waves. These anomalous temperatures are just starting to rise to the surface in the Eastern Tropical Pacific and they rival or exceed the ocean temperatures that precipitated the 97-98 El Nino which was the strongest in the era of satellite , Argo float, and modern records. Preparations need to begin now rather than waiting till fall when this thing is going to hit locally. There are many biological ramifications but floods, coastal erosion , and potentially trouble for the Sacramento Delta and water delivery systems far into the future. Ya we need the rain but I have lived through enough of these events to know to have a lot of respect for them and yes a certain amount of fear. If a huge snowpack melt in the Sierra were to combine with a large rain event during a King Tide we could lose this states water delivery system.
  Please scroll down to post number 259 on the above link for a comparison between March 97 and current conditions in the Eastern Tropical Pacific.
I don't ask for my letters to be forwarded very often but could you pass this one on the the rest of the members of SAC for me?

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 07:34:36 PM
For what it is worth, in Reply #266 I estimated that the mean global temperature rise above pre-industrial levels would be about 1.75 degree C by 2029; which is very close to the 2 degrees C temperature by 2036 that Michael Mann projects assuming a "fast" ECS of 3 degrees C together with more activated "slow response" feedback mechanisms (see the following link for details):

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mann-why-global-warming-will-cross-a-dangerous-threshold-in-2036/ (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/mann-why-global-warming-will-cross-a-dangerous-threshold-in-2036/)

Also, the first attached image of the change in Global specific humidity with time, indicates that during the last positive PDO phase from 1982 to 1999, specific humidity increase by about 0.3 g/kg, while during the last negative PDO phase from 1999 to 2014 specific humidity only increase by about 0.05 g/kg.  As water vapor is a GHG we can expect faster temperature increases during the current positive PDO phase (possibly from 2014 to 2029).

Also, I attach the second image after Fasullo & Trenberth (2012, see reference below), while is related to the Sherwood et al (2013) paper that I previously referenced indicating that increased global warming (whether due to AGW or to a Super El Nino), will cause dehydration of the cloud cover between 10S and 25S, which will increase fast-response ECS, for the duration that the cloud cover is dehydrated by down-drafting associate with increase convective mixing at warmed temperatures.

Fasullo, J.T. and Trenberth, K.E., (2012), "A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity", Science, vol. 338, pp. 792-794, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227465. (http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1227465.)

Finally, I provide two references (see below) that cite paleo-evidence that El Nino frequency and/or intensity will increase with increasing global warming (and I note that during the last 1982- 1998 positive PDO period the Mt Pinatubo eruption suppressed global temperature rise; while that likely will not be the case for the current positive PDO phase, nor for the next positive PDO phase around the 2044 to 2059 timeframe):

University of Oxford (2011, July 15) "Dramatic climate swings likely as world warms: Ancient El Niño clue to future floods", ScienceDaily. Retrieved July 31, 2011, from http://www.sciencedaily.com (http://www.sciencedaily.com)¬ /releases/2011/07/110714103249.htm

N. Scroxton, S. G. Bonham, R. E. M. Rickaby, S. H. F. Lawrence, M. Hermoso, A. M. Haywood. "Persistent El Niño–Southern Oscillation variation during the Pliocene Epoch", Paleoceanography, 2011; 26 (2) DOI: 10.1029/2010PA002097"

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 07:39:26 PM
Bruce,

That was a nice letter that you sent to the NOAA committee.  I hope that the responsible parties take appropriate safeguards.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 07:56:36 PM
Obviously, if a Super El Nino causes more drought in many rainforests, like the Amazon, then as indicated in the linked NASA article, we can expect more wildfires in these forest:

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2013-fire-year.html (http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2013-fire-year.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 09:26:38 PM
I would like to remind people that the typical Northwest Pacific typhoon season typically runs from May through November; however, during the first year of the last Super El Nino season, 1997, the typhoon season lasted the entire year and produced a record number of Super Typhoons as described in the following Wikipedia extract (see also the two attached images):

"The season was unusual in the number of super typhoons that occurred in the basin, with eleven typhoons reaching winds of at least 135 knots. They were Isa, Nestor, Rosie, Winnie, Bing, Oliwa (from Central Pacific), Ginger, Ivan, Joan, Keith, and Paka (from Central Pacific). This was due to the strong El Niño of 1997-1998, which contributed to the record amounts of not only super typhoons but also tropical storms in the Western and Eastern Pacific. Fortunately, most of the stronger systems remained at sea.

When Severe Tropical Storm Peter made landfall in southern Japan on June 27, it marked the first time that two tropical cyclones made landfall in mainland Japan during the month of June since reliable records began in 1951. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, eleven tropical cyclones attained super typhoon status, ten of which became Category 5 Super Typhoons, marking the highest number of Category 5 storms in a single season on record."

Obviously, such a large number of Super El Nino's is not only a result of a Super El Nino year, but the WWB from these events can reinforce new EKWs headed across the Equatorial Pacific, and can thus contribute to the strengthening of the El Nino event itself; and we may see similar behavior in 2014; which may result in multiple billions of dollars worth of damage (from the typhoons alone).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 09:34:48 PM
In my last post I neglected to point out that up to March 19 2014 (see attached figure) the current Pacific Typhoon season has been more active than 1997 was up to the same date.  Therefore, it is conceivable that Super Typhoons could begin as early as next month if the 2014 typhoon season turns-out to be as, or more, active than the 1997 season:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 10:28:11 PM
I am not certain how significant the following consideration might be, but:

(1) It is possible/likely that the Nino3.4 index could exceed a value of 0.5 by the first week in April, which would be approximately 3 weeks earlier than the same milestone was reached in 1997.
(2) The formation of strong Kelvin waves (EKWs) is often preceded three months by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, IOD, index (i.e. greater than +0.4); and (a) the first attached image shows the weekly average IOD index values from Jan 2009 to March 16 2014; and (b) the second attached image shows the IOD forecast (issued March 2 2014) through the end of November 2014.
(3) If one assumes an average 3 to 4 month duration between the warm phase of Pacific Kelvin waves, then we might expect another EKW to reach South America around the end of July, and then another around the end of November, and possibly another by February-March 2015.

If the IOD is positive (ie more positive than +0.4) by November the last EKW could be strong enough to make a 2014-15 El Nino more intense than the 1997-98 event, both because of a possible positive IOD and also because the El Nino duration may be longer (and can thus accumulate more positive reinforcement).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 11:22:20 PM
Getting back to my response to ccgwebmaster in Reply #272 about possible positive feedback between an El Nino (or a series of El Nino's such as during a positive IPO phase) and transient climate sensitivity, I would like to add that as El Nino events also (temporarily) raise mean global temperatures, they can distress the biosphere as indicated by Stocker et al. (2013), "Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1864; which, contains the following conclusion related to the influence of high rates of mean global warming on climate sensitivity: "The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%."

Further to this positive feedback on climate sensitivity with increasing mean global temperature due to biosphere distress, James Hansen, Pushker Kharecha and Makiko Sato (2013), provide the attached figure from "Climate forcing growth rates: doubling down on our Faustian bargain", Environ. Res. Lett. 8, 011006 (9pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/011006

This figure indicates that since at least 2000 the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 content has not increased at the same rate as the anthropogenic CO2 emissions, apparently partially due to the El Nino "hiatus period" observed since 2000 as this "hiatus period" apparently promotes terrestrial biological growth that has been absorbing CO2 at a rate faster than once feared.
The fact that the environment has recently absorbing CO2 at a faster rate than the growth of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is illustrated by this attached image showing that the airborne fraction of emissions from about 60% to about 50%.  Hansen et al 2013 attribute this increase in absorption not only to the El Nino "hiatus period" but also to that fact that China and India have accounted for most of the increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions due to increase burning of coal, which generates more aerosols and particulates; which apparently has promoted biological growth both by creating diffused sunlight that plants can absorb more efficiently and due to the distribution of nitrogen in the particulates that acts like a fertilizer.

Therefore, as we enter a La Nina hiatus period and/or as China and India reduce their air pollution, one can expect the biosphere in general to absorb less CO₂ than during the recent El Nino hiatus period from 1999 to 2014; which will result in a higher effective climate sensitivity.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 19, 2014, 11:40:48 PM
In a somewhat theoretical consideration, the attached figure shows a representative Probability Density Function, PDF, illustrating a typical "Dragon-King" event according to Chaos Theory.  This PDF has a "fat-tail" for extreme "Dragon-King" events (i.e. events of consequence), that are normally associated with "strange attractors" in Chaos Theory.  For an impacted local area, such as a fishing village in Peru, a single Super El Nino could be a Dragon-King event as the "fat-tailed" probability that the Super could reducing fishing long enough that the villagers would need to re-locate.

However, in several decades time it is conceivable that positive feedbacks between global warming, climate sensitivity, and a positive IPO (El Nino-rich) period (see my immediately preceding post and Reply #272) could result in a Dragon-King event that would say permanently increase climate sensitivity (say by sufficiently distressing the biosphere that it does not recover fully, that the permafrost carbon emissions accelerate significantly, or that cloud cover between 10S and 25S is permanently reduced).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 19, 2014, 11:44:11 PM
I am not certain how significant the following consideration might be, but:

(1) It is possible/likely that the Nino3.4 index could exceed a value of 0.5 by the first week in April, which would be approximately 3 weeks earlier than the same milestone was reached in 1997

First off, I really enjoy all of your posts in this thread.  Having been a Californian for 2 decades, the whole El Nino phenomena is amazing to learn about. 

I wanted to ask (as I probably missed it in earlier posts) why your timeline is much faster than what NOAA's official statements for the Nino3.4 area are. Is it the current Kelvin wave?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 12:31:41 AM
ChasingIce,

First, to give you a simple straight forward answer, please look at the Australian BoM Nino 3.4 time series that I posted in Reply #274, and if you straight-line the tail-end of this time series curve (i.e. for the period from about February 13 to March 13 (when the Nino 3.4 index is -0.05)) then you will clearly see that by the first week in April the Nino 3.4 index will exceed +0.5.

Second, in the way of a more convoluted answer:
(a) As I am not certain which "official" NOAA statement that you are referring to, but as my statement was made today, I will refer to the "semi-official" first attachment CFSv2 Nino Forecast for today (March 19 2014) which is based on the ensemble mean of circulation models that are calibrated to last weeks boundary conditions.  Extrapolating this CFSv2 graph as of today it appears that NOAA is estimating that the Nino 3.4 index will reach a value of +0.5 by about the end of April; which is not that much different than my timeframe.  But the CRSv2 is a mean value of complex but largely linear models that cannot capture all of the non-linearities of a Super El Nino event (thus they need to re-compute each week in order to recalibrate).
(b) Also, I consider multiple other factors such as: (1) the SOI value, (2) the cloud activity near the equatorial Date Line; and (3) westerly wind burst [such as from TC-Mike] and the location of the SPCZ, both of which are indicated in the second attached NOAA satellite image of the Pacific Ocean on the afternoon of March 19 2014; and the third attached earth wind map surface wind graphic for the afternoon of March 19 2014; which when you compare to this mornings image indicates that Tropical Cyclone 20P [TC-Mike] has grown in size & intensity in only a few hours (ie I am using some of the most currently available information on the internet).
(c) Also yes, the fact that the Kelvin wave (EKW) is already surfacing is a dead-give-away for an early date for the Nino 3.4 index to exceed +0.5 (based on comparison with the timing of the 1997 event).  Also, I know the wave speed of an EKW.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 12:56:17 AM
The following statement from the Australian BoM on March 18 2014, indicates that the MJO is not likely to reach the equatorial Date Line area before the end of April.  However, I believe that even by the end of April and MJO could give a boost to the strength of any El Nino developing at that time, thus raising to probability of at Super by the end of the year:

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) continued to move eastward over the tropical western hemisphere this past week. It is likely to have contributed to enhanced tropical activity observed this past fortnight in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and to the generally-suppressed conditions observed over the eastern Indian Ocean, Maritime Continent, and northern Australia, which continued to see a prolonged break in the monsoon pattern.

The MJO is forecast to move into the tropical western Indian Ocean region this week, although, it is unclear how quickly it will progress eastwards. Some models keep the MJO slow moving in the western tropical Indian Ocean, while others predict it to move at a faster pace, reaching northern Australian longitudes in early April. When the MJO is over the Indian Ocean during this time of year, tropical Australia and the Maritime Continent usually experience supressed tropical convection, higher daytime temperatures, and enhanced easterly winds. However, an atmospheric Kelvin Wave, this week, is likely to provide some enhanced convection to South-East Asia, especially western Indonesia.

The March equinox will occur, on 20 March, meaning the southern hemisphere will begin its transition into autumn weather patterns and the inter-tropical convergence zone will begin a migration northward. The Northern Australia wet season usually extends through April. Currently, climate models indicate the possibility of the MJO reaching the Australian longitudes within the first half of April, and may bring some final wet season activity for northern Australia."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 03:40:38 AM
In the way of a brief update, the SOI for March 20 2014 is -12.3 as indicated by the attached figure.  This indicates that the El Nino is strengthening.

I provide the average monthly SOI values for 1997 below, for ease of comparison:

            Jan     Feb    Mar     Apr     May    June    July     Aug   Sept    Oct      Nov    Dec
1997    4.1     13.3   -8.5   -16.2  -22.4   -24.1   -9.5   -19.8  -14.8   -17.8  -15.2    -9.1
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 20, 2014, 03:50:54 AM
ChasingIce,

First, to give you a simple straight forward answer, please look at the Australian BoM Nino 3.4 time series that I posted in Reply #274, and if you straight-line the tail-end of this time series curve (i.e. for the period from about February 13 to March 13 (when the Nino 3.4 index is -0.05)) then you will clearly see that by the first week in April the Nino 3.4 index will exceed +0.5.

Second, in the way of a more convoluted answer:
(a) As I am not certain which "official" NOAA statement that you are referring to, but as my statement was made today, I will refer to the "semi-official" first attachment CFSv2 Nino Forecast for today (March 19 2014) which is based on the ensemble mean of circulation models that are calibrated to last weeks boundary conditions.  Extrapolating this CFSv2 graph as of today it appears that NOAA is estimating that the Nino 3.4 index will reach a value of +0.5 by about the end of April; which is not that much different than my timeframe.  But the CRSv2 is a mean value of complex but largely linear models that cannot capture all of the non-linearities of a Super El Nino event (thus they need to re-compute each week in order to recalibrate).
(b) Also, I consider multiple other factors such as: (1) the SOI value, (2) the cloud activity near the equatorial Date Line; and (3) westerly wind burst [such as from TC-Mike] and the location of the SPCZ, both of which are indicated in the second attached NOAA satellite image of the Pacific Ocean on the afternoon of March 19 2014; and the third attached earth wind map surface wind graphic for the afternoon of March 19 2014; which when you compare to this mornings image indicates that Tropical Cyclone 20P [TC-Mike] has grown in size & intensity in only a few hours (ie I am using some of the most currently available information on the internet).
(c) Also yes, the fact that the Kelvin wave (EKW) is already surfacing is a dead-give-away for an early date for the Nino 3.4 index to exceed +0.5 (based on comparison with the timing of the 1997 event).  Also, I know the wave speed of an EKW.

Best,
ASLR

Excellent, thank you much.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 20, 2014, 04:02:51 AM
Sea level pressure over the central Pacific has dropped sharply, while near Australia, it has risen. Looks as though the nominal SLP over Tahiti is now actually less than Darwin. The graphic attached offers another version of the BOM SOI graph. Looks like a bona fide El Niño to me.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 20, 2014, 06:58:31 AM
ASLR and Deep Octopus, Thanks for all the work and beautiful graphics. I was notified by staff that the letter to the Channel Islands Marine Sancuary Advisory Council is going out for distribution and will most certainly turn some heads or I should say your posts will turn heads.
 Just for the potential push back I may receive could someone elaborate on why these events we are watching might fizzle ? I know from past experience that sometimes El Nino warnings do not turn into the real thing. Mind you I think all evidence and the very anomalously high subsurface waters are convincing but aren't we still dependent on more Kelvin waves to perpetuate surface water heating for the Eastern Tropical Pacific into winter months and thus " the child ".
 I also put word out to the local fleet. We all know this is very bad news and I don't wish to unduly alarm my friends but they need to know so as to prepare for a long hard winter. Part of the fleet is young enough to never have experienced this before and some of them will not survive it's effects economically.  Anybody want to buy a boat ? I said back in 98 that I wasn't going to fight another big El Nino.  Time to step down I think.
 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 02:12:58 PM
deep octopus,

Thanks for the SLP maps for the Pacific for March 19, that graphically show the meaning of the SOI and helps people to understand why the SOI is more volatile than other Nino indices, as it based on atmospheric conditions which can change more quickly than oceanic conditions (which the Nino 1,2,3,3.4, and 4 indices are based on).
As you know, another atmospheric indicator of an El Nino is the cloud cover both: (a) near the equatorial Date Line (which helps to shift the Walker Cell to an El Nino condition); and (b) along the SPCZ, if the SPCZ is shifted in the northwest direction (which indicates a positive IPO that reinforces an El Nino condition).  In this regard, the attached image (from the Australian BoM) of the Pacific OLR and the OLR anomaly for the three days from March 17 to March 19, clearly indicate extensive cloud cover both near the equatorial Date Line and along the SPCZ (which is shifted to the northeast from its normal alignment).  This is classic El Nino behavior (even if the Nino3.4 is not at +0.5 today, it will soon exceed this threshold based on these strong atmospheric reinforcing conditions).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 20, 2014, 02:58:16 PM
Thanks ASLR,

The signs of storm activity correspond nicely with signs of a breakdown of the Walker Cell in the western Pacific, specifically at the SPCZ. I will try to plot some graphics later, but I've noticed from NOAA Reanalysis data that the 200 hPa winds have had a sharp easterly momentum from 160 W all the way to the Philippines, and 850 hPa winds still strongly westerly in the SPCZ, in the last week. I wonder if in fact the Walker Cell has collapsed in the west, and finally moved east. So the ripple in the ocean seems to be clearly happening. The warm pool is moving east. Some sea level graphs and thermocline depth maps will be useful to really get a holistic idea of how things are changing.

I know it sometimes feels like we're watching paint dry, but things are changing rather rapidly. The new SST anomaly chart from NOAA OSPO again show that the stripe of blue that dominated the equator east of the dateline has nearly vanished. A line of warm water will reveal itself as a ghoulish opening salvo to the El Niño of 2014, any day now.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.3.20.2014.gif&hash=dae3b257c0ab5a3337629505cb4f4890)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 03:03:22 PM
Bruce,

Your question is a classic example of why NOAA and most other "authorities" tend to be scientifically conservative, so as to avoid the risk of any controversy, from decision makers who do not understand the influences of the various different factors that control the complex (chaotic) behavior of the ENSO.  Nevertheless, in the few minutes that I have available, I will give a shot at a short response to decision makers who (due to competition/economics) must make all their decisions "on the margin" and thus they only want hard predictions, rather than loose/changeable projections (note that NOAA changes their ensemble forecasts every week):

Chaotic systems (such as the Pacific Oceanic/Atmospheric system) become very predictable if "strange attractors" can be at least be temporarily identified in the system (you can think of the "strange attractors" as various temporary gravity wells in a flexible membrane surface that marbles are rolling on, and when the marbles roll around the perimeters of these various temporary wells then you have a very good idea where they will be (which is why there is a "fat-tail" on the Dragon-King PDF for chaotic systems).  The following gives an idea of what these various temporary gravity wells (or strange attractors) are:
(a)  The most important uncertainty is whether the whole Pacific Oceanic/Atmospheric system can be flipped from a "normal" state into an "El Nino" state, as it takes a lot of energy to do things like change the: (1) inclination of the thermocline, (2) Walker Circulation Cell; (3) send coastal trapped Kelvin waves pole-ward [and send some oceanic Rossby waves westward on either side of the equator]; (4) telecommunicate atmospheric Rossby waves pole-ward and to the Indian Ocean; (5) vent ocean heat content into the equatorial atmosphere, etc.  Thus, there needs to be some critical combination of: (1) warm water volume, wwv, stored in the Western Pacific (which we now have a lot of due to the past 15-years of negative PDO); (2) a sufficiently strong Kelvin wave (EKW) that is not largely reflected off of the coast of South America; (3) has the Walker Cell reinforcing the El Nino condition [which includes westerlies in the west and weak equatorial trade winds in the east Pacific; (4) a reduction of upwelling from the Humboldt Current, etc.  And as deep octopus and I have shown, we now have all of these requirements in a positive feedback loop.
(b) Now as to whether a Super El Nino forms, yes we need continued reinforcement from: (1) more EKWs; (2) sustained favorable atmospheric conditions, and (3) limited negative feedbacks such as negative PDO/IPO indices.  Reasons to believe that favorable conditions for a Super to develop this year include: (1) the warm water stored in the Tropical Pacific is larger than ever recorded before; (2)  AGW acts like positive IPO reinforcement; (3) the timing of the synchronicity (see Reply #108) the input factors (Humboldt & Kuroshio Currents, etc) indicates a resonance condition is here to stay for a while; and (4) the accelerating negative trend of the SOI indicates that the atmospheric reinforcement will be here for a while.

I am sorry that your sensitivity decision makers (fishermen fighting for their economic survival) have to assume responsibility for the consequences of the uncertainties of the ENSO phenomena; but at least education is a strong tool to fight such uncertainties, and hopefully this thread can provide some continuing education and updates on the changing conditions (no ENSO event lasts forever).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 03:45:29 PM
deep octopus,

I look forward to seeing your graphs from NOAA Reanalysis data later.  In the meantime I thought that I would note that the March 20 SST anomaly map that you just posted has a classical positive IPO pattern shown, with an open horseshoe shape pointing to the west in the North Pacific and to the east in the South Pacific.  Such a positive IPO will clearly reinforce the El Nino for at least several months, and possibly for much longer.  Also, the SOI data from 1997 that I posted earlier, clearly indicates that the atmosphere will be providing positive reinforcement to the our current El Nino also for at least several months, and possibly for much longer.

And not to sound like a broken record, but all the signs that I see indicate to me that our current El Nino has the potential to grow into a more intense El Nino event than the 1997-98 event (for reasons such as: (a) the El Nino appears to be starting about three weeks earlier; (b) there is more ocean heat content in the Equatorial Pacific now than in 1997; (c) the SOI is becoming more negative faster than in 1997; (d) in 1997 the IPO index was moving towards smaller values, while today the IPO index should be head towards larger values; (e) the EKW is stronger today than in 1997; and (f) AGW is providing more positive feedback today than in 1997.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 04:02:00 PM
jai mitchell just posted made the following post in the Changes in Mid-Latitude Hydrology thread:

"A significant amount of blocking flow has begun to push mid-latitude moisture-laden winds through the Bering Straight and into the Chukchi Sea.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-160.66,59.97,880 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-160.66,59.97,880)

The Total Precipitable Water Overlay shows that this has doubled the amount of total precipitable water in the lower atmosphere of the Chukchi Sea from 1.8 kg per m^3 to 6.8 kg per m^3
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-168.75,74.27,1039 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0600Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=total_precipitable_water/orthographic=-168.75,74.27,1039) "

While this moisture laden mid-latitude wind flow through the Bering Strait into the Chukchi Sea; may not be persistent.  It is one of my bigger concerns that a Super El Nino (and a strong positive PDO/IPO) may make such a pattern persistent for the next year; and if so this could drag warm Pacific ocean water through the Bering Strait in to the Arctic Basin; which would have a major impact on Arctic Sea Ice extent this Summer (if this were to happen).  If so this would further drive-up mean global temperatures in 2014-15 due to arctic amplification; which would also then provide some positive feedback reinforcement for a Super El Nino to strengthen further.

I should also note that due to the "atmospheric bridge" a strong El Nino telecommunicates tropical Pacific energy directly to North Pacific resulting in a deepening of the Aleutian Low (which might result in a persistent blocking pattern as indicated by jai.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 05:07:24 PM
Further to my concerns (see Reply #296) about warm Pacific water entering the Arctic Basin through the Bering Strait, the linked reference indicates that for SRES A1B the eastern Bering Sea will have an average SST during the summer (JAS) of approximately 2oC warmer than at present by 2045.  This raises the risk that this warm water could be transported into the Arctic Ocean (either by a sea surface slope due to high SLR by 2045, and/or by a dipole condition such as occurred in 2007, or some positive PDO/IPO/ENSO effect) to accelerate early season (ie July) Arctic Sea Ice loss (increasing albedo) when the solar irradiance is high; which could in-turn both warm Arctic Ocean SST and high evaporation rates; which could contribute to accelerated Arctic amplification and increased risk of an equable climate transition:


Expected declines in recruitment of walleye Pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) in the eastern Bering Sea under future climate change; by: Franz J. Mueter, Nicholas A. Bond, James N. Ianelli, and Anne B. Hollowed; ICES Journal of Marine Science (2011), 68(6), 1284–1296. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr022

http://www.acoustics.washington.edu/fis437/resources/Week%202/Meuter%20et%20al%20pollock%20recruit%202011.pdf (http://www.acoustics.washington.edu/fis437/resources/Week%202/Meuter%20et%20al%20pollock%20recruit%202011.pdf)

Furthermore, (while it might seem a stretch to tie this to the trend for more frequent Super El Nino's during a warming trend) the Lake El’gygytgyn region of Russian seems to have been considerably warmer during MIS 11c [the Holsteinian peak] than it was during MIS 5e [the Eemian peak]. This is despite the fact that summer solar radiation was less intense (though the season was longer) and greenhouse gas concentrations were similar. The researchers of sediment in the lake write, “Consequently, the distinctly higher observed [temperature and precipitation] at MIS 11c cannot readily be explained by the local summer orbital forcing or GHG concentrations alone, and suggest that other processes and feedbacks contributed to the extraordinary warmth at this interglacial, and the relatively muted response to the strongest forcing at MIS 5e.”  The Arctic is especially sensitive to climate changes (through the loss of reflective snow and ice, for example), and what happens there affects the rest of the planet as well. Figuring out which feedbacks could account for the warm temperatures during MIS 11c could be useful.  Seeing how climate responds to many different situations helps researchers obtain a deeper understanding of the climate system. And therein lies the value in climate records from disparate regions. As the researchers put it, “The observed response of the region’s climate and terrestrial ecosystems to a range of interglacial forcing provides a challenge for modeling and important constraints on climate sensitivity and polar amplification.”
See: Brigham-Grette, Julie; Melles, Martin; Minyuk, Pavel, et al., (2013) "Millennial scale change from Lake El’gygytgyn, NE Russia: Did we step or leap out of the Warm Pliocene into the Pleistocene?"
http://instaar.colorado.edu/meetings/AW2013/abstract_details.php?abstract_id=78 (http://instaar.colorado.edu/meetings/AW2013/abstract_details.php?abstract_id=78)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 06:05:15 PM
The attached image (from the UK Met office in 2011) posted by jai Mitchell elsewhere, showing how quickly increasing global warming could damage plant life particularly in the Northern Latitude forests (due to Arctic amplification), made me think of the following post that I made in the Antarctic folder about how low-volatility secondary organic aerosol emitted largely by Northern forest, serve to reduce the apparent current climate sensitivity.  If in the next few decades large El Nino events actually do accelerate Polar Amplification, then this would eliminate the negative feedback provided by the low-volatility secondary organic aerosols cited below; which would mean that global temperatures in a few decades time could accelerate faster than currently expected by most scientists (including by Michael Mann in the link that I posted earlier to his article in SciAm about how global temperatures could rise to 2 degrees C about pre-industrial levels by 2036), also I note that the next positive IPO phase (after our current one) may begin around 2045, just when the plants will be exhibiting serious heat distress if we continue on our BAU pathway):

Mikael Ehn, Joel A. Thornton, Einhard Kleist, Mikko Sipilä, Heikki Junninen, Iida Pullinen, Monika Springer, Florian Rubach, Ralf Tillmann, Ben Lee, Felipe Lopez-Hilfiker, Stefanie Andres, Ismail-Hakki Acir, Matti Rissanen, Tuija Jokinen, Siegfried Schobesberger, Juha Kangasluoma, Jenni Kontkanen, Tuomo Nieminen, Theo Kurtén, Lasse B. Nielsen, Solvejg Jørgensen, Henrik G. Kjaergaard, Manjula Canagaratna, Miikka Dal Maso et al (2014), " A large source of low-volatility secondary organic aerosol", Nature, 506, 476–479, doi:10.1038/nature13032


http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7489/full/nature13032.html (http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v506/n7489/full/nature13032.html)

Also, see:
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26340038 (http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-26340038)


Abstract: "Forests emit large quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere. Their condensable oxidation products can form secondary organic aerosol, a significant and ubiquitous component of atmospheric aerosol, which is known to affect the Earth’s radiation balance by scattering solar radiation and by acting as cloud condensation nuclei. The quantitative assessment of such climate effects remains hampered by a number of factors, including an incomplete understanding of how biogenic VOCs contribute to the formation of atmospheric secondary organic aerosol. The growth of newly formed particles from sizes of less than three nanometres up to the sizes of cloud condensation nuclei (about one hundred nanometres) in many continental ecosystems requires abundant, essentially non-volatile organic vapours, but the sources and compositions of such vapours remain unknown. Here we investigate the oxidation of VOCs, in particular the terpene α-pinene, under atmospherically relevant conditions in chamber experiments. We find that a direct pathway leads from several biogenic VOCs, such as monoterpenes, to the formation of large amounts of extremely low-volatility vapours. These vapours form at significant mass yield in the gas phase and condense irreversibly onto aerosol surfaces to produce secondary organic aerosol, helping to explain the discrepancy between the observed atmospheric burden of secondary organic aerosol and that reported by many model studies. We further demonstrate how these low-volatility vapours can enhance, or even dominate, the formation and growth of aerosol particles over forested regions, providing a missing link between biogenic VOCs and their conversion to aerosol particles. Our findings could help to improve assessments of biosphere–aerosol–climate feedback mechanisms, and the air quality and climate effects of biogenic emissions generally."

Also, see the link to the following related reference:

Paasonen, P., et. al. (2013), "Evidence for negative climate feedback: warming increases aerosol number concentrations,", Nature Geoscience, 6, Pages: 438–442, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1800

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n6/full/ngeo1800.html (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v6/n6/full/ngeo1800.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 06:39:10 PM
While we wait for deep octopus's Equatorial Pacific wind data, I thought that I would post the first attached image from NCEP-NOAA of the 200-hPa winds (near the top of the Walker Circulation Cell), that indicates that in the Western Equatorial Pacific these upper winds are blowing from east to west and in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific these upper winds are blowing from west to east, just as indicated in the second attached re-posted image of the Walker Cell in an El Nino configuration:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 07:00:17 PM
If my day weren't chopped-up, I would have posted this surface level wind anomalies (from NOAA at 850 mb) image to March 17 with my prior post (Reply #299), in order to show that the lower portion of the Walker Cell - El Nino configuration is progressively getting established:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 07:21:42 PM
wili posted the following in the Abrupt Climate Impacts thread, but I thought that it was worth re-posting here as it implies that one of the significant reasons that the Hadley Cell is becoming wider is changes in the PDO associated with both global warming and air pollution (obviously if the Hadley Cell were to become wide enough say by the end of this century, then the earth could transition to an equable climate sooner rather than later):

"Climatologists offer explanation for widening of Earth's tropical belt
   

Quote

Climatologists posit that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability) and anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Until now there was no clear explanation for what is driving the widening.

    Recent studies have shown that Earth's tropical belt -- demarcated, roughly, by the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn -- has progressively expanded since at least the late 1970s. Several explanations for this widening have been proposed, such as radiative forcing due to greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone depletion.

    Now, a team of climatologists, led by researchers at the University of California, Riverside, posits that the recent widening of the tropical belt is primarily caused by multi-decadal sea surface temperature variability in the Pacific Ocean. This variability includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a long-lived El Niño-like pattern of Pacific climate variability that works like a switch every 30 years or so between two different circulation patterns in the North Pacific Ocean. It also includes, the researchers say, anthropogenic pollutants, which act to modify the PDO."

    Study results appear March 16 in Nature Geoscience.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318113829.htm (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/03/140318113829.htm)

Robert J. Allen, Joel R. Norris, Mahesh Kovilakam. Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width. Nature Geoscience, 2014; DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2091
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 07:41:12 PM
Following up further on wili's lead, I post the following two linked references explaining that the PDO effect on the width of the Tropical Belt (largely in the Pacific) has been previously missing from GCM projections:

Jian Lu, (2014), "Climate science: Tropical expansion by ocean swing", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2124

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2124.pdf (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2124.pdf)


Abstract: "The tropical belt has become wider over the past decades, but climate models fall short of capturing the full rate of the expansion. The latest analysis of climate simulations suggests that a long-term swing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is the main missing cause from the coupled climate models."


Robert J. Allen, Joel R. Norris & Mahesh Kovilakam, (2014), "Influence of anthropogenic aerosols and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation on tropical belt width", Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2091



http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2091.pdf (http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/pdf/ngeo2091.pdf)



Abstract: "The tropical belt has widened by several degrees latitude since 1979, as evidenced by shifts in atmospheric circulation and climate zones. Global climate models also simulate tropical belt widening, but less so than observed. Reasons for this discrepancy and the mechanisms driving the expansion are uncertain. Here we analyse multidecadal variability in tropical belt width since 1950 using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model runs and find that simulated rates of tropical expansion over the past 30 years—particularly in the Northern Hemisphere—are in better agreement with observations than previous models. We find that models driven by observed sea surface temperatures over this interval yield the largest rate of tropical expansion. We link the tropical expansion in the Northern Hemisphere to the leading pattern of sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We also find, both from models and observations, that the tropical belt contracted in the Northern Hemisphere from 1950 to 1979, coincident with the reversal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation trend. In both time periods, anthropogenic aerosols act to modify the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and therefore contribute to the width of the tropical belt. We conclude that tropical expansion and contraction are influenced by multidecadal sea surface temperature variability associated with both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and anthropogenic aerosols."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 20, 2014, 09:01:27 PM
Letter to a friend
From a fisherman's perspective. I watch the weather, the buoy data, the clouds and listen to what I can glean from other fishermen's opinions about the conditions at the islands. Rarely are conditions ideal and if you only go when those prefect days do show up you won't get enough days in to make a living. There are many more good sources to go by now than 40 years ago but still it is my job to work the marginal days and so most days I leave with small craft warnings up. That is I am forced to make educated guesses and if I am too conservative
I will go broke and if I am too bold I may well die. So in the long run old fishermen have an accumulated knowledge that they can neither communicate effectively nor assign to scientific methodology.
 I have managed to survive two very strong El Nino events 82-83 and 97-98. We humans have been jacking up Co2 levels ever since with today's Mauna Loa readings at +401 ppm. We are throwing gas on the fire and El Nino's are earths mechanism to release some of the heat that has built up in the ocean over the last 15 years. My advice is expect the next El Nino to be a whopper. Advice from an old fisherman. I put word out to the fleet yesterday along with my letter to the SAC and NOAA. I have been known to make some fairly prescient calls over the years.
The other fishermen will consider the source as should you.
 We in the urchin fleet warned everyone what we thought would happen when this day did arrive and the unchecked urchin populations in the reserves ate down the kelp as the hot water
and storms wreaked havoc. The urchins will eat down all the kelp and then keep it mowed down as conditions return to normal in a couple years. We will have big urchin barrens and even if someone decided to let us go dive there again we wouldn't have markets for the poor quality urchins that result from allowing their populations to swell as we have done. That is a prediction for what happens two or three years from now.
 The PDO index has also gone positive for the last two months and that portends massive change also if this El Nino results in a long term flip in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. I won't make any predictions about that however, just something to watch.
 I know you have known me long enough to balance my advice carefully. I would think you might question that NOAA forecast 50/50 as conservative, like a fisherman waiting for perfect weather. Not in my nature.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 20, 2014, 09:12:16 PM
Wili

From inside your 2nd link on climate change doubling the chance of super El Nino's Trenberth disagrees.  So this might be a bit unsettled yet.  I see that Bruce beat me to the negative PDO comment while I was typing. I guess I have to speed up  :)  It will be interesting if we actually end up in an El Nino and continue the increasing frequency of El Nino's we have seen over the last 50 years or so.  Or whether we revert to the historical norm of La Nina dominance which often lasts decades.  I believe the projections are for increasing frequency but I am curious about that.  We will see. 

While I'm used to looking at PDO as another indicator of El Nino's, and noted the *change* in the negative trend so far, I am fascinated by the SOI that AbruptSLR has been referencing as this is the 1st time I've really heard of it.   Looks to be a good fight between the 2 of them.  (as in, interesting).   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 09:33:29 PM
ChasingIce,

I am not sure what JimD is referring to when he say: "...the negative PDO..", as the following link shows that the last two months of the PDO have been positive, and the PDO is on a positive trend, not a negative trend:

http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)

Furthermore,

The following series of earth maps of surface ocean currents in the Equatorial Pacific from March 17 thru the 20th; clearly indicate that the ocean is both warming, and that the surface currents in the Western Pacific are now extending to about 175W, matching an El Nino pattern for the Walker Cell (ie wind drag also moves the surface currents):

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/17/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/17/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/18/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/19/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/19/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/0000Z/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=-148.67,-4.23,783)

Finally, if you click on the animation (at the following link) from the Albany University of both vorticity and surface winds, you will see that after about March 18 2014 the wind patterns are forecast to follow the El Nino pattern for the Walker Cell:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/maps/vort/westpac.html (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/carl/weather/maps/vort/westpac.html)

Please continue to watch as the coming El Nino unfolds.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 09:42:22 PM
Bruce,

I thought that your message was spot-on, and I hope that I have not led you astray; but I hope even more that the fleet takes your advice and takes precautions against the coming storm.  As you know all too well, after the daily solar cycle and the annual seasonal cycle, the ENSO cycle has the (third) strongest impact on the world's Earth Systems, and is not to be taken lightly.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 20, 2014, 10:26:38 PM
ASLR, My initial letter has progressed up the Sanctuary hierarchy all along the West Coast. A couple people noted the NOAA's 50/50 call for later in the year. I think though you may be attracting more attention to the "Forum" over the next few months as I linked the El Nino page in my letter.
 Some things that we talk about on the " Forum" we will never live long enough to see but this is a different story. And to add gravity potential droughts for Africa and maybe India ,make this an event far more serious than our local fisheries consequences. I looked around on the web yesterday and Indian officials are storing up seed for short season crops. They will be planted I assume if there are
solid forecasts over the next couple months. If Indian farmers had access to everything we have been reading I think they might respond differently than how government officials do. Drought however isn't a sure thing on the Indian subcontinent even if this El Nino does turn out to be a record setting event.   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 11:05:01 PM
Bruce,

I imagine that by sometime in May NOAA will issue a provisional recognition that an El Nino is underway, and if people take that notice seriously, maybe they will still have time to react; even if they still have doubts at the moment.

In the way of more evidence, deep octopus suggested that we post some sea level maps of the Equatorial Pacific; so I post the attached Jason-2 satellite residual images for Feb 5, Feb 20, and March 7, 2014, respectively; which clearly indicate how rapidly the equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW is developing.  I suspect that NASA will issue another such map for March 22nd soon at the following web-link; which I expect to be particularly telling as I believe that after about March 18th the transition to an El Nino condition has be accelerating:

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/)

Also, for any fishermen joining the discussion recently, I do not believe that any Kelvin wave of warm current will reach San Francisco until about June 1 2014; due to the speed of travel of Kelvin waves.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 20, 2014, 11:28:28 PM
Thank you for sharing this thread Bruce. I think this thread has been a very lively, thorough conversation from many people of many perspectives and is the most focused discussion on this event I've seen on the web. I have to tip my hat to ASLR for his continuously rigorous explanations on the physics and statistical interpretations of what we're seeing as it unfolds. This is quality reading.

Thanks for digging through the GRACE sea level graphics. Very attractive plots. The last one is certainly worth a thousand words.

There's been a spark in the global community on the possibility of a Super El Niño, getting mentions from Andrew Freedman and the Washington Post, among a growing number of voices. More media attention doesn't make the event more likely, but it is a reflection on the evidence and is a suggestion of growing interest around this event. This is still a challenging time for forecasts, and this is still a fragile time in the lifespan of an El Niño still in utero. The evidence looks good all around though. A warm PDO is good insurance for a developing El Niño. I'd be more doubtful of an event were it the case that we were still in a cold phase, as was the case when El Niño failed in 2012. A strong Kelvin wave surfacing at South America means the event is about to begin. The formation of an even at all will be its own fuel for encouraging more positive feedbacks (weaker trade winds, initiating more warm Kelvin waves, renewing the cycle.)

On an academic, mathematical level, I'm very interested in what the climatic system's response is to an El Niño. But on an emotional level, this has tremendous life consequences. El Niño (and to a different degree La Niña) is the heart and soul of climate extremities, more so when coupled with greenhouse gases. Seventeen years since the last formation of a super El Niño and CO2 now at 401 ppm could result in volatile Earth responses. If the consequences will be that 2014 or 2015 finish as the hottest years on record, or there are at least the more local, anecdotal signs of environmental distress, or a rapid loss of ice in the Arctic or Antarctic--I hope the global community takes a giant leap forward in addressing climate change. I don't want to spark a huge debate on that, there are plenty of threads here that go on about how we will rsepond, but I'm just pronouncing my deeper expressions and hopes and dreams. I don't want pain or suffering, but warning people will minimize those odds, and otherwise, my hopes cannot change physics. El Niño within the framework of global warming will act as it will, and only an honest appreciation of what is factual will get us to change. OK, and that's where I'm leaving this for now.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 20, 2014, 11:45:24 PM
deep octopus,

Your posts are always insightful and well stated.

Another consequence of a Super El Nino in 2014-15 would be that more rain would fall in the ocean, particularly in the SPCZ; which will raise sea level; and as the attached SLR graph from the University of Colorado for March 20, 2014, indicates the rise in sea level is already slowly underway:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 21, 2014, 01:02:42 AM
ChasingIce,

I am not sure what JimD is referring to when he say: "...the negative PDO..", as the following link shows that the last two months of the PDO have been positive, and the PDO is on a positive trend, not a negative trend:

I'm pretty sure he was referencing the longer PDO trend that has been negative for a while now, and just turned positive.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 01:13:11 AM
In nature El Nino events are typical more severe than are La Nina event, which is called ENSO Asymmetry, and as the linked reference cites, the current CMIP5 models cannot capture this fact, and thus they must be somewhat underestimating climate sensitivity to the degree of this asymmetry:

Tao Zhang and De-Zheng Sun (2014), "ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP5 Models", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1)

Abstract: "The El Niño–La Niña asymmetry is evaluated in fourteen CMIP5 coupled models. The results show that an underestimate of ENSO asymmetry, a common problem noted in CMIP3 models, remains a common problem in CMIP5 coupled models. The weaker ENSO asymmetry in the models primarily results from a weaker SST warm anomaly over the eastern Pacific and a westward shift of the center of the anomaly. In contrast, SST anomalies for the La Niña phase are close to observations.
Corresponding AMIP runs are analyzed to understand the causes of the underestimate of ENSO asymmetry in coupled models. The analysis reveals that during the warm phase, precipitation anomalies are weaker over the eastern Pacific and westerly wind anomalies are confined more to the west in most models. The time-mean zonal winds are stronger over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific for most models. Wind-forced ocean GCM experiments suggest that the stronger time-mean zonal winds and weaker asymmetry in the inter-annual anomalies of the zonal winds in AMIP models can both be a contributing factor to a weaker ENSO asymmetry in the corresponding coupled models, but the former appears to be a more fundamental factor, possibly through its impact on the mean state. The study suggests that the underestimate of ENSO asymmetry in the CMIP5 coupled models is at least in part of atmospheric origin."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 01:19:23 AM
I hate to keep cross-posting jai mitchell's posts from the Mid-Latitude Hydrology thread, but the following post that he just made shows an atmospheric system in the Equatorial Pacific that will disrupt the "normal" Walker Cell, and promote an El Nino type Walker Cell:

"blocking" high pressure system sitting directly on the equator, significant cross equatorial flow, this is an artifact of the blocking system that oriented between the two hemispheres on March 18th,  forecast is that this cut-off system will persist for the next several days, backtracking eastward.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=215.52,0.45,632 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/20/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=215.52,0.45,632)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 03:20:29 AM
The attached SOI series has a March 21 2014  value of -13.3, which means that the probability of a strong El Nino this year is increasing.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 04:06:52 AM
The following link leads to an article about the possibility of a strong El Nino event this year, with a range of different statements on this matter as indicated by the following sample:

http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-nino-maybe/ (http://mashable.com/2014/03/19/intense-el-nino-maybe/)


"Roundy said the chances of an unusually strong El Niño event “Are much higher than average, it’s difficult to put a kind of probability of it … I’ve suggested somewhere around 80%”

“The conditions of the Pacific ocean right now are as favorable for a major event as they were in march of 1997. That’s no major guarantee that a major event develops but clearly it would increase the likelihood of a major event occurring,” Roundy says.

Barnston said any similarities of current conditions in the Pacific to those seen before the 1997-98 El Niño are an insufficient basis for forecasting an intense event. “As for the strength of the event, it is not known. Just seeing similarities with 1997 is not enough to go on," Barnston told Mashable in an email. "Unless we continue to get westerly wind events in the coming weeks, there is no guarantee that it will be a big event, and there is a 40% or so chance we will not get an El Niño at all,” he told Mashable in an email.

Roundy and Blake also urged caution about concluding that an El Niño event is nearly certain to occur, and that it will be intense. Rather, Blake said, the situation bears close watching.

“Anytime you have a non-negligible chance of something extreme happening, and you see it happening in a way that you haven’t seen in 15 to 20 years, it’s interesting,” says Blake."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 03:27:36 PM
For anyone who took the time to click on the mashable.com link and read the article that I referenced in my last post, I would like to make the following few comments.  According to the article:
(1) In the course of about a week the "official" prognosis for the occurrence of an El Nino this year has increased from a 50-50 chance to a 60-40 chance of occurring, and they indicated that this increase in the probability of occurrence was dominated by the repeated occurrence of WWBs that kept generating westerly winds in the Western Pacific that kept reinforcing the EKW (to give it more energy so that instead of reflecting off of South America, it might have enough energy to switch the Pacific condition to an El Nino condition, which takes a fairly large amount of energy).  I note that the ensemble models have been proven to be particularly poor at forecasting such WWBs (see Zhang and Sun 2014) so it is not surprising that the "official" forecast needed to be adjusted upward to account for repeated WWBs that kept occurring with only forecasts of around 10 to 15% likelihood of occurrence (see the repeated Cyclocane Tropical Storm forecasts that I posted regarding the tropical storms that produced the WWBs).  Also, now that the SPCZ is well established and the 30-day moving average SOI is currently at -13.3 and still becoming more negative (for at least a few more days as a moving average cannot change trends rapidly), the continuing equatorial westerlies in the West Pacific shown in the attached earth surface wind map for March 21 2014, no longer needs WWBs to be sustained as the "normal" Walker Cell is well on its way into transitioning to an El Nino condition. Therefore, I imagine that if this "official" prognosis were to be revised today the probability of an El Nino occurring would be adjusted upward yet again.
(2) As we are still in the period of the "Springtime Barrier" for ENSO forecasts, the "official" forecast has a low "skill" level meaning that the officials have low-confidence in their prognoses and you are warned that they can and will revise these "official" forecasts as and whenever they feel appropriate.  This implies that during this period when the ensemble mean forecasts have low "skill" you need to use your own judgment as to what to do.
(3) Several studies have found that the frequency of strong El Ninos increase with both positive PDO/IPO values and also with global warming (which has continued unabated during the "hiatus" period), and as strong El Ninos must have strong positive reinforcement from atmospheric conditions, this must increase their probabilities of occurrence above that for more moderate El Ninos that the "official" prognosis are largely based on.
(4) If an El Nino does happen shortly, the article gives it about an 80% chance of being a strong (Super) El Nino.  Therefore, I believe that by mid-April we will see strong evidence that an El Nino is occurring and that by May the "official" prognosis will provisionally acknowledge this condition (subject to confirmation over the following 5 months before an "official" El Nino is recorded.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 21, 2014, 03:58:05 PM
The possible breakdown of the Walker Circulation in the western Pacific that I mentioned earlier is explained in four graphics. In the first two attached images, 200 hPa and 850 hPa wind vectors are shown, respectively. Strong easterlies are present at the 200 hPa level from 160 W to the Philippines, and strong westerlies at the 850 hPa level preside south of the Equator over the SPCZ.

This suggests the tendency for a reversed Walker Circulation, with dry air descending over Indonesia/Papua New Guinea as indicated in the third image. The center of convective/precipitation activity has moved east to the dateline.

The fourth image is more wonkish, but is inspired by a previous post of mine which looks at the shape of the zonal wind curves at various levels of the atmosphere. In the last week, we should notice that an inversion of the curve is present, with positive (westerly) anomalies in the lower troposphere, and a now negative (easterly) anomaly in the stratosphere. This is for the entire equatorial Pacific basin. It's a weak inversion, but it nonetheless indicates an El Niño condition. The inverted zonal wind curve is strong numerical evidence of a broken down Walker Circulation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 04:00:45 PM
Further to my immediate prior post (reply #315), the figure attached their showed equatorial westerlies to at least the Date Line and possibly to 170W (depending on your definition), and weak equatorial (between 5N & 5S) in the Eastern Pacific, which is what one would expect to see at for surface winds with the Walker Cell in an El Nino pattern.  Now, I post the attached earth wind map at 250 mb (hPa), which is near the top of the Walker Cell and again this is showing an El Nino pattern with winds in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific blowing from west to east, and the opposite in the Western Equatorial Pacific (note also that the atmospheric vortex spanning the equator is not commonly forecast by the ensemble models, which gives yet another indication that we are experiencing the beginnings of a strong/Super El Nino, as the ensemble models are very poor at forecasting strong/Super El Nino's).

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/21/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=215.52,0.45,632 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/21/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=215.52,0.45,632)

I would also like to point out once again that a Super El Nino event is classic example of a Chaos Theory "Dragon-King" type of event, with a "fat-tailed" probability density function, PDF, while the ensemble mean forecast cannot replicate such a "fat-tailed" PDF, and thus if we are in the beginning stages of a Super El Nino, then the "official" forecasts would be blind to these risks, until later this summer when the next EKW should arrive to reinforce any El Nino event that might start during the "Spring Barrier" period.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 04:11:08 PM
deep octopus,

It appears that our posts on the Walker Cell are overlapping each other, but it is good to see that while our data is coming from different sources, our conclusions (that an El Nino pattern for the Walker Cell is forming, or has formed) are the same.  I would say again that this indicates that the mashable.com articles' forecast of a 60% probability of an El Nino occurring, is too low; particularly with the EKW surfacing right now and with the forecast that the MJO might (or might not) reach the Eastern Equatorial Pacific by late April (and with the Nino 1 index indicating that upwelling induced by the Humboldt Current is less than normal).

It will be interesting the see the updated weekly Nino Indices at the beginning of next week to see how our current trend is progressing.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 07:50:38 PM
As I am sure that NOAA is well aware that the ENSO is an chaotic system, they consequently update their ensemble mean forecasts frequently, and attached is their revised ensemble mean Nino3.4 forecast issued March 21, 2014 based on conditions from March 10 to March 19, 2014.

The mean give a timeframe of the beginning of May for Nino3.4 to exceed +0.5; while one of the models give a timeframe of the first week in April 2014 (proving that my estimate of the first week in April for Nino3.4 to reach +0.5 is at least reasonable).

Furthermore, recent Pacific SST maps lead me to believe that both the PDO and IPO are becoming more positive relatively quickly.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 21, 2014, 09:18:26 PM
Here's a quick roundup of news articles from around the world that are taking notice of El Niño and the local consequences, for better or worse.


Reuters (Mar 19, 2014): El Nino weather pattern will likely hit Peru next month - government (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319)

Quote
The feared El Nino weather pattern will likely hit Peru with a "weak to moderate" intensity starting in April, affecting the fishmeal industry on the country's northern coast, the government said on Wednesday.

...

Temperatures in the Pacific are expected to rise two to three degrees Celsius above normal this year, said German Vasquez, the president of the government commission.

"We expect anchovy resources to move toward southern Peru," Vasquez told reporters, adding that Peruvian waters would likely stay warmer until around the middle of 2014.

Washington Post (Mar 19, 2014): Mid-Atlantic may enjoy cool summer if El Niño develops (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/03/19/mid-atlantic-may-enjoy-cool-summer-if-el-nino-develops/)

Quote
If El Niño develops over the summer or by the early fall – as NOAA is hinting – the Mid-Atlantic could be in for a cool summer, relative to normal. For each of the three big cities in the region – D.C., Philadelphia and Richmond – most of the summers in which El Niño developed since 1950 have featured temperatures cooler than the 30-year average.

San Francisco Gate (Mar 21, 2014):  Thirsty California pins hopes on El Niño's return (http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Thirsty-California-pins-hopes-on-El-Ni-o-s-return-5336354.php)
Quote
But even as hope dims for a March miracle storm, climatologists say weather conditions could change this year if an El Niño takes shape. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño watch this month, citing a 52 percent chance of Pacific Ocean waters warming and creating - possibly - a wetter-than-average winter.

Historically, El Niño conditions have been associated with the state's biggest rain years, including the winters of 1997-98 and 1982-83, which brought fatal mudslides to the Santa Cruz Mountains and devastating surf to the Southern California coast. In 1997-98, San Francisco was pounded by a record 47.2 inches of rain.

Reuters (Mar 20, 2014): El Niño seen bringing much-needed rain to Chile (http://news.yahoo.com/el-ni-o-seen-bringing-much-needed-rain-211112924.html)

Quote
SANTIAGO (Reuters) - After five years of drought in central Chile, there is a good chance that the El Niño weather pattern could bring much-needed rains during the Southern Hemisphere's winter, the national meteorological service said on Thursday.

...

 Meanwhile, water levels in reservoirs in some parts of the country have been falling rapidly, threatening fresh fruit production, especially for smaller-scale operations.

Fruit and wine are among Chile's largest exports after copper, with total exports of $6.1 billion in 2012, according to government figures.

There is a 50 percent chance that El Niño could bring above-average precipitation in August, the middle of Chile's winter season, especially in the central and southern regions, the weather service said.

...

The 2004-13 was the driest 10-year period in nearly the last 150 years, the meteorological service said.

Huffington Post (Mar 17, 2014): Going Up in Smoke: Why You Should Care About Indonesia's Fires (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-fogarty/indonesia-wild-fires_b_4964323.html)

Quote
Sumatra's forests are on fire again, less than a year after blazes burned large areas and covered Singapore and parts of Malaysia in thick smoke.

While the fires in Indonesia might seem far away for many people, they are everyone's problem. Many of the blazes are on deep peat lands, producing huge plumes of smoke and large amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that are stoking climate change. This year's fires are just as intense and threaten a far worse fire emergency because of unusually dry weather that is set to continue for some months. Worse still, there are increasing signs of an El Nino weather pattern for later this year.

El Nino events usually bring drier weather to Indonesia and a spike in forest fires, with the intense 1997-98 El Nino triggering some of the worst fires in living memory in Indonesia.

...

Drained peat, which is rich in carbon, can burn for weeks or months, producing a thick smoke. Last year, intense fires lasted for weeks and pollution readings in Singapore reached record levels in June, prompting the government to vow stern action against Singapore-based palm oil and pulp and paper firms proven to have caused some of the fires.

Just how much greenhouse gas pollution are we talking about?

A 2013 study by Indonesia's National Council on Climate Change estimated peat fires produced 183 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (CO2-e) in Sumatra in 2013 and 54.9 Mt CO2-e in Kalimantan, Indonesia's part of Borneo island. That's roughly 4.5 times New York City's annual emissions of 54 million tonnes based on 2010 levels.

In extreme drought years, such as 1997-98, fires can cover large areas of Indonesia and produce immense amounts of greenhouse gas pollution, highlighting the need for better law enforcement and fire-fighting capacity.

During 1997-98, an estimated 2 million hectares (4.9 million acres) of forest and 5 million hectares (12.4 million acres) of non-forested areas burned, with smoke affecting 75 million people across large parts of Southeast Asia, according to the National Council on Climate Change. Carbon emissions from the fires have been estimated at between 15 and 40 percent of annual global fossil fuel pollution.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 10:47:28 PM
deep octopus,

Your news articles imply that we are in for a rough ride, particularly from wildfires in tropical rain forest, while the following indicates that for the next 15-years or so we can expect the ocean surface waters to warm more quickly (which will drive an acceleration of the Earth's hydrological cycles):

The first attached image comes from England et al 2014, and shows how during the recent negative phase of the IPO, acceleration of shallow overturning cells and of the equatorial undercurrent in the Equatorial Pacific enhanced the mixing of heat into the deeper layers of the ocean.  The ocean behavior was generated by the increasing trade winds which caused waters to cool in the east Pacific and warm in the west Pacific, which in turn drove further strengthening of the trade winds in a feedback mechanism that reinforced the Walker Circulation.  In turn the enhanced Walker Circulation resulted in increased sea level elevations, and the pooling of increased volumes of warm water, in the Western Pacific.

(see: Matthew H. England, Shayne McGregor, Paul Spence, Gerald A. Meehl, Axel Timmermann, Wenju Cai, Alex Sen Gupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Ariaan Purich, Agus Santoso. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change 4:3, 222-227)

Now that the enhanced Walker Circulation (during the hiatus) has been disrupted, and some of the warm water from the Western Pacific is moving eastward, we can expect less mixing of heat into the deeper layers of the ocean, for about the next 15 years, as indicated in the second attached image; which implies that the surface of the oceans should warm more rapidly during the coming phase of positive IPO.

The caption for the second attached image is:  "A cartoon depicting decades in which heating is strongest in the upper layers of the ocean (e.g. 1980s-90s) and the most recent period in which heating affects deeper layers instead, with little change in surface temperature."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 21, 2014, 11:31:55 PM
I am posting the attached image (after the Australian BoM, March 17 2014) not because it has a good reminder of how the Walker Cell transitions; but primarily because of the lower panel on the image that correlates the SOI index values with El Nino periods. I would expect the 30-day moving SOI index to be close to -14 within one, or at most, two days (which is not proof of an El Nino event, but which significantly increases the odds of one occurring).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Anne on March 21, 2014, 11:37:49 PM
What are the possible effects on the Arctic? Can they even be estimated?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Anne on March 21, 2014, 11:38:36 PM
(Perhaps I should have posted that on the Stupid Questions thread!)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 12:06:14 AM
Anne,

No such question is stupid. In reply #83, deep octopus had the following to say about the effects of a Strong El Nino on the Arctic:

"The Arctic may or may not see much impact. Taking a couple examples of the most severe El Niños in recent history: Looking at volume and extent data, September sea ice volume increased in 1983 from 1982 after the 1982-1983 super El Niño, while extent was static over those two years. During the 1997-1998 super El Niño, both volume and extent did fall from 1997 to 1998, but not in any remarkable ways. We have conversely seen a few La Niña years that were very bad for Arctic sea ice, such as 2012."

While I do agree with deep octopus that the short-term effect of a single strong El Nino event may not be remarkable.  I feel strongly that the combine effects of multiple El Nino's during the coming approximately 15-yr positive IPO phase will have a very significant impact on the Arctic; particularly as the atmospheric bridge (telecommunication, see the attached reposted image) delivers more and more Tropical Pacific energy to the Alaska area (which might effect both sea ice in the Bering Straits, and possibly the flow of warm Pacific Ocean water through the Bering Straits into the Arctic Basin).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Anne on March 22, 2014, 12:51:36 AM
Thanks for that, ASLR. Will watch and wait with concern, and think of those in the Pacific who are more obviously and directly affected.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 12:55:20 AM
Previously, I posted the University of Colorado SLR graph (which only presented data to the end of 2013); however, I actually prefer the AVISO SLR graph shown as the first attachment with data up to January 18, 2014; which clearly shows that even in a non-El Nino condition SLR is increasing.  While the second attached image shows a normalized & de-trended comparison of global mean sea level (GMSL) to the MEI time series; which show a strong correlation between GMSL and the MEI, with GMSL typically lagging MEI.  Therefore, I would expect to see significant increases in SLR by June or July 2014 and continuing into at least the Spring of 2015.

The caption for the second attached image is: "The Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) is the unrotated, first principal component of six observables measured over the tropical Pacific (see NOAA ESRL MEI, Wolter & Timlin, 1993,1998).  To compare the global mean sea level to the MEI time series, we removed the mean, linear trend, and seasonal signals from the 60-day smoothed global mean sea level estimates and normalized each time series by its standard deviation. The normalized values plotted above show a strong correlation between the global mean sea level and the MEI, with the global mean sea level often lagging changes in the MEI."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 01:23:18 AM
Obviously, in any transition there will be fluctuations, and the first attached satellite image of the Central Pacific for March 21, 2014 shows fewer clouds near between 5N & 5S near the Date Line; while the second image of OLR in the same area and date by the Australian BoM confirms that the cloudiness in this key area is decreasing; while the third attached image by the Albany University voracity and surface wind forecast for March 29 2014 shows that between 5N and 5S the trade winds do not extend beyond the Date Line.  All of these indicators together indicate that while the Walker Cell is definitely not in a "normal" pattern, it is still only exhibiting a relatively weak El Nino Walker Cell pattern.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 03:45:28 AM
The attached graph indicates that the 30-day moving SOI value as of March 22 2014 is -13.7; which indicates likely that the increase in atmospheric pressure difference from Tahiti to Darwin has stopped increasing, but that the moving average will at least continue to drift more negatively to approximately -14, tomorrow (or so).  As I noted in my immediately prior post the Albany University forecast indicates that the Walker Cell should remain in an El Nino pattern until at least March 29 2014, so we will see what happens as the EKW surfaces in the coming week as to whether it has sufficient strength to continue the process of changing the Equatorial Pacific into a self-sustaining El Nino condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 05:09:22 PM
Now that the EKW is surfacing in the Central Equatorial Pacific, I would like to note following typical ENSO trends around this critical transition time (working under the assumption that it is easier to have confidence if one knows what signs to look for, if an El Nino is actually developing):

(1) To paraphrase Wikipedia: "When ENSO reaches its warm phase, otherwise known as El Niño, the tongue of lowered sea surface temperatures due to upwelling off the South American continent disappears, which causes the SPCZ to vanish as well." Thus it is likely that we will see the SPCZ weaken over the next two weeks, as the weakened upwelling off the coast of Ecuador & Peru are further reduced by the poleward Coastal-trapped (Kelvin) wave, CTW (see the attached first earth surface wind map image that indicates that this transition trend of a weakening SPCZ, is already beginning, and also note that this behavior represents a positive feedback loop to strengthen an El Nino event).

(2) According to NOAA: "El Niño and La Niña episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years."  Thus due to the failure of the 2012 warming event to stabilize, it has been 5 years since the last El Nino event in 2009-10.  As El Nino events are not random, the probability of one happening now is higher than any time in the past 5 years.

(3) El Nino events normally begin in the April to June timeframe; thus the probability of an El Nino occurring due to the current EKW is more than from possible subsequent EKWs later this Summer and/or Fall.

(4) According to NOAA: "El Niño and La Niña are typically strongest during December-April because the equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are normally warmest at this time of the year."  Thus if an El Nino is initiated now, it is very likely to become a Super by the December 2014 to April 2015 timeframe.

(5) According to NOAA's March 22 2014 announcement: "THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 08N123W TO 06N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WAS NOTED."  As the ITCZ is typically associated with increased thunderstorm activity, this announced condition could serve to help destabilize the "normal" Walker Cell pattern.

(6) Probably when the EKW surfaces in the Central Equatorial Pacific it will feed energy into the atmosphere which will serve to strengthen the Walker Cell from its current weak El Nino pattern (see the second and third attached images of the surface wind, and top of the cell wind, anomalies, respectively) into a stronger El Nino pattern

(7) Currently the MJO is projected to arrive in the Central Equatorial Pacific by about the end of April (or possibly not), assuming that the Nino3.4 is above +0.5 by then (and may have been so for three weeks, if my estimate is correct), then the arrival of the MJO could serve to increase the Nino3.4 value into the +1 range by the end of May.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 05:35:13 PM
For those who like to use the Nino3.4 index as a good measure of the SST in the Central Equatorial Pacific (as when this index exceeds +0.5 the ocean in this area vents sufficient energy to help sustain/reinforce El Nino conditions), I provide the following average weekly Nino3.4 index data from the Australian BoM:

Average Weekly Nino3.4 Index
Beginning Date    Ending Date    Index
20140224,          20140302,     -0.32
20140303,          20140309,     -0.27
20140310,          20140316,     -0.05

This indicates that from the week of Feb 24 to March 2, to the week of March 3 to March 9, the increase in the index was only +0.05; while from the week of March 3 to March 9, to the week of March 10 to March 16, the increase in the index was +0.22.  If a weekly increase of +0.25 is achieved for the next two weeks (and goes up at least +0.05 in the third week), then the average value for the week from March 17 to March 23 will be +0.2; and for the week from March 24 to 30 would be +0.45; and for the week from March 31 to April 6 would be above the +0.5 value that I have estimated to occur by the end of that week.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 22, 2014, 10:44:52 PM
ASLR, maybe you have seen the latest from TAO? A nice WWB has established around the dateline and seems to strengthens. Almost the entire Pacific is now dominated by a positive wind anomaly. Only a minor area around 145W-158W still have winds about normal but given the recent trend I won't be surprised if the entire pacific ocean will be dominated by positive anomalies in the beginning of april...

A strong El Niño also will make this hurricane season really interesting! During the exceptionally strong El Niño event 1997-1998 not less than 10 category 5 hurricanes formed in the WPAC.. Three of them could be said to be almost on pair with Haiyan... But even a modest El Niño will affect the hurricane activity in the three basins..

In the EPAC on the other hand, Guillermo and Linda both reached cat 5 during 1997 where Linda also was the strongest estimated hurricane on record in the EPAC. One should however remember that the records for the EPAC is rather short and data only accurate from about 1970 and onwards.  About 90% of the EPACs cat 5 develops during El Niño years.. In the Atlantic basin the odds are rising that we'll see another calm season like last year...

Link: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 22, 2014, 11:55:55 PM
Lord M Vader,

Thank you.  Indeed, I am concerned that this will be an active typhoon season this year (see my Reply #280) and to date it is already more active than 1997 (see my Reply #281).  Also, Super Typhoon Isa occurred in the West Pacific from April 12-21 1997; which added early additional energy to the 1997 El Nino event; and it is conceivable that similar early typhoons could add early additional energy to a 2014 El Nino event.

It will be something to watch unfold.
Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2014, 09:36:31 AM
The attached graph indicates that the 30-day moving SOI value as of March 23 2014 is -13.2.  Even using a 30-day moving average, the SOI is well know to be volatile as it measures atmospheric conditions that can change relatively quickly.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 23, 2014, 08:21:30 PM
Abrupt:  I hate to keep asking so many questions, but is the SOI like the PDO or the Nino3.4 index where they look for a consistent state for a segment of months?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2014, 08:48:45 PM
Chasing Ice,

I am not a meteorologist, but the SOI is determined only by atmospheric pressure differences, with the PDO and Nino 3.4 indices are determined by oceanic temperature differences.  Thus the SOI is more volatile due to the thermal inertial of the oceans.  Nevertheless, I believe that all authorities around the world (not just NOAA) issue formal determination of El Nino events based on multiple months worth of both atmospheric and oceanic data.  Therefore, even if an El Nino event happens to be locked into a reinforcing feedback loop by April, it would likely be August or September before such an event is formally acknowledged.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 23, 2014, 11:44:31 PM
Out of habit, I'm providing the latest 5-day subsurface temperatures over the Pacific to track the Kelvin wave. In the animation, you can observe the formation of the warm Kelvin wave in December. It has been progressing eastward all year, gathering strength as westerly wind bursts have sloshed warm water from the western Pacific towards the east. On March 14th, the Kelvin surfaced off of the South American shoreline. By March 19th (the latest date), it had grown to absurd strength. There's a large core of heat at least 5 C above average. Some graphics suggest up to 6 C anomalies in that dark burgundy center. Either way, this is easily the strongest, most eastern-positioned Kelvin wave since at least 1997.

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-CoCmHoyGfvU/Uy9hqQ-sRrI/AAAAAAAAAZU/KzvRO8HqEHw/w395-h356-no/output_Uml4ZJ.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 23, 2014, 11:51:25 PM
The linked reference verifies the point that I have made in this thread, that with the ending of the past negative IPO/PDO phase, the rate of SLR should increase for at about the next 15 years:

Anny Cazenave, Habib-Boubacar Dieng, Benoit Meyssignac, Karina von Schuckmann, Bertrand Decharme & Etienne Berthier, (2014), "The rate of sea-level rise", Nature Climate Change; doi:10.1038/nclimate2159

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2159.html (http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2159.html)

Abstract: "Present-day sea-level rise is a major indicator of climate change. Since the early 1990s, sea level rose at a mean rate of ~3.1 mm yr−1. However, over the last decade a slowdown of this rate, of about 30%, has been recorded. It coincides with a plateau in Earth’s mean surface temperature evolution, known as the recent pause in warming. Here we present an analysis based on sea-level data from the altimetry record of the past ~20 years that separates interannual natural variability in sea level from the longer-term change probably related to anthropogenic global warming. The most prominent signature in the global mean sea level interannual variability is caused by El Niño–Southern Oscillation, through its impact on the global water cycle. We find that when correcting for interannual variability, the past decade’s slowdown of the global mean sea level disappears, leading to a similar rate of sea-level rise (of 3.3 ± 0.4 mm yr−1) during the first and second decade of the altimetry era. Our results confirm the need for quantifying and further removing from the climate records the short-term natural climate variability if one wants to extract the global warming signal."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 12:48:59 AM
Just to reinforce deep octopus's point, in Reply #338, that some assessments indicate that the temperature anomaly at the core of the EKW is over 6 degrees C, I provide the attached image from the linked cpc-ncep-noaa source of the subsea Equatorial Pacific temperature anomaly for March 19 2014.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif)

This EKW is indeed very large, and very powerful, and as it surfaces we can expect to see a rapid change/increase in the Nino3.4 index.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 02:12:10 AM
The attached graph indicates that the 30-day moving SOI value as of March 24 2014 is -13.1.  If this atmospheric stays more negative than -8 then as the EKW surfaces, it should encounter atmospheric conditions favorable for establishing an El Nino event:

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Jmo on March 24, 2014, 04:10:14 AM
Another article linking these observations to a possible super el nino...

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/us-atmospheric-scientists-predict-intense-el-nino/27371 (http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/us-atmospheric-scientists-predict-intense-el-nino/27371)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 09:00:53 AM
The following listing presents the PDO values for the last five times that Super El Nino's caused a CTW to reach Fort Point, San Francisco, which were for the years: 1915-16, 1940-41, 1957-58, 1982-83, 1997-98:

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

1915    -0.41   0.14  -1.22   1.40   0.32   0.99   1.07   0.27  -0.05  -0.43  -0.12   0.17
1916    -0.64  -0.19  -0.11   0.35   0.42  -0.82  -0.78  -0.73  -0.77  -0.22  -0.68  -1.94


1940     2.03   1.74   1.89   2.37   2.32   2.43   2.12   1.40   1.10   1.19   0.68   1.96
1941     2.14   2.07   2.41   1.89   2.25   3.01   2.33   3.31   1.99   1.22   0.40   0.91

1957    -1.82  -0.68   0.03  -0.58   0.57   1.76   0.72   0.51   1.59   1.50  -0.32  -0.55
1958     0.25   0.62   0.25   1.06   1.28   1.33   0.89   1.06   0.29   0.01  -0.18   0.86


1982     0.34   0.20   0.19  -0.19  -0.58  -0.78   0.58   0.39   0.84   0.37  -0.25   0.26
1983     0.56   1.14   2.11   1.87   1.80   2.36   3.51   1.85   0.91   0.96   1.02   1.69


1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44


This listing indicates to me that the occurs of Super El Nino's is not directly tied to PDO values, still the 1997-98 event was the strongest El Nino on record (to date), and to me it's PDO values seem to match most closely what I am expecting to occur in 2014-15; thus providing some support to the idea that a 2014-15 event would be compare to, or greater than, the 1997-1998 event.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 09:07:41 AM
I provide below a quote from the article that Jmo provided a link to:

"Paul E. Roundy, associate professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, New York, says there's been a series of westerly winds that amplify waves, moving warm currents of water thousands of kilometres and moving a surge of warm water from west to east.

That pushes the warm water to considerable depths.

"It's close to a 70 or 80 per cent chance of a major event," Associate Professor Roundy said.

"The Climate Prediction Centre would disagree and set the rates lower.

"But I'm thinking in the context of what we observe in the ocean right now, is consistent with that kind of major event developing.

"No guarantee! But it is consistent.

"The only time that (the six-degree warming) has ever happened before, this time of the year, was in that March of 1997 event.""

Thus at least one US scientist is willing to say that there is currently a 70 to 80% chance of a Super in 2014-15.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 09:32:48 AM
The first attached earth surface wind map for March 24 2014 shows that the trade winds between 5N & 5S have currently stalled at around 170W (which indicates that the Walker Cell is not in a "normal" mode).

The second attached earth ocean surface current map for March 24 2014 shows that the intensity of the Equatorial Pacific ocean surface current between 5N & 5S and from at least 170E to 175W are higher than they were a couple of days ago; which would support the formation of a Walker Cell in an El Nino pattern, should the current trend persist.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 03:59:24 PM
Out of today's weekly cpc-ncep-noaa report, the most interesting information to me was the Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly graph attached.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 24, 2014, 05:16:01 PM
Another animation to throw into the mix, no doubting the +6C anomalies here

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FufR3InF.gif&hash=ced32bdf2bb3077e1b5098184894affd)

It's interesting to compare the UOHC from summer 2012, when El Nino appeared to be brewing, to now. The change in scale is impressive.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6iYBiEs.gif&hash=fb84ec8ba12f5181bba21eab3f86621f) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMjfxlNl.jpg&hash=157c719af06daaeac8dc1ab9a23a1cbc)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 05:36:38 PM
In order to add additional prospective to the 2012 EQ UOHC anomaly data that BFTV posted in Reply #347, below I offer the 1997 EQ UOHC anomaly data (from the following link); and I note that the 1.17 average March 1997 is very similar to the current March 2014 value of about 1.25 (for 180-100W); which indicates to me that we are on track for a Super El Nino slight higher than the 1997 event, and significantly higher than the 2012 event


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt)

Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
YR    MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W

1997    1      .54              .49          .56
1997    2      .84              .85         1.00
1997    3     1.09            1.26        1.17
1997    4     1.49            1.87        2.17
1997    5     1.38            1.82        2.01
1997    6     1.55            2.01        2.25
1997    7     1.34            1.77        1.83
1997    8     1.07            1.50        1.79
1997    9     1.25            1.85        2.38
1997   10     1.35           2.05        2.56
1997   11     1.19           1.94        2.30
1997   12      .56            1.15        1.02
1998    1     -.24              .16          .00
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Laurent on March 24, 2014, 05:41:41 PM
Can I ask where does the increasing energy is coming from ? Not the right, not the left, not down, not up, it has to come from the north or the south !? wich one ?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 24, 2014, 05:55:53 PM
El Niño deniers? The India Meteorological Department director-general Laxman Singh Rathmore claims the West is spreading "rumors" of El Niño to manipulate India's markets.

Quote
"It is in the US and Australian interests that agri commodities and stock market in India come down. They are spreading rumours. People will start hoarding and might start creating artificial scarcity of commodities. Don't heed their advice," said Laxman Singh Rathore, director-general, IMD.

On the other hand...

Quote
India's private weather forecaster Skymet sees a 60 per cent chance of a drought this year, and does not share Rathore's perspective on a conspiracy by scientists of the developed world. Jatin Singh, CEO of Skymet Weather Services, said he doesn't feel there is any plot.

"There is no conspiracy. The correlation between El Nino southern oscillation and Indian summer monsoon rainfall is well known since the 1980s," he said. Skymet will issue its monsoon forecast on April 15 while IMD is likely to release its prediction in the second half of the same month. Singh ruled out any chance of this year's rainfall being excessive. Economists and analysts feel there is a correlation between the Indian monsoon and agri markets, particularly certain commodities grown in rain-fed areas.

While there's no guarantee of El Niño, and certainly there are individuals who want to exaggerate claims or invent rumors for their own ulterior motives (for money, no less; maybe to short certain commodities or currencies), but outright ignoring warnings based on unsubstantiated claims of conspiracy is fool-hardy. Very dangerous. It's especially astounding for IMD to claim that public agencies are conspiring to invent rumors. If El Niño becomes apparent by the end of April, it's going to be my hope that IMD reverses its position and trusts the science, so that India can properly prepare.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/west-spreading-el-nino-rumours-india-meteorological-department/articleshow/32568141.cms (http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/west-spreading-el-nino-rumours-india-meteorological-department/articleshow/32568141.cms)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 24, 2014, 06:40:01 PM
ASLR there is certainly a chance that we'll see an intense El Niño soon and if so I won't be surprised if the annual global mean will set new a record for 2015 and maybe also this year.. So was the case during the powerful event 1997-1998. At that time the global mean temperature for 1998 smashed the previous record then from 1995 by a wide margin for the globe as a whole.. At least if one looks at data from NASA: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/ (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/)

A powerful El Niño doesn't mean that we'll get a new global temp record.. So was the case after the other powerful el Niño event in 1982-1983..

Btw, virtually the whole Pacific now has positive anomaly in the zonal wind.. A new Westerly Wind Burst seems to have developed around the date line...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 24, 2014, 06:48:48 PM
LMV, the 82-83 Nino coincided with the El Chichón eruption in Mexico, hence the lack of record global temperatures then.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chich%C3%B3n#1982_Eruption (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Chich%C3%B3n#1982_Eruption)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 24, 2014, 07:24:50 PM
BFTV: thank you for the very important info!! THAT explains why it didn't become a new record then!! :)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: jai mitchell on March 24, 2014, 07:28:24 PM
the simple fact that we did not experience any cooling event during the massive sequestration of heat energy into the deeper ocean layers during this long-running negative PDO shows that we are poised to have a warming event that will be significantly higher than the 1997-1998 El Nino.

I suspect that we will likely break through 1.2C above pre-industrial within the next 3 years and follow along closely with the ECS 4.5 curve shown in Michael Mann's Scientific American image:

http://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/articles/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large.jpg (http://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/articles/earth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large.jpg)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.scientificamerican.com%2Fsciam%2Fassets%2FImage%2Farticles%2Fearth-will-cross-the-climate-danger-threshold-by-2036_large.jpg&hash=0183665b270bf67932c454dadf9f14b4)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 08:53:28 PM
NOAA has just published the attached image of the SST anomaly for March 24 2014; which shows a strong positive IPO pattern; but also shows that the EKW (Kelvin wave) has not yet surfaced in many portions of the Central and Eastern Pacific:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ (http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 24, 2014, 09:01:20 PM
Weekly Niño 3.4 index is now positive for the first time December, jumping 0.5 C in the last week.

                Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA     SST SSTA

 01JAN2014     23.7 0.0     25.2-0.2     26.3-0.3     28.2-0.2
 08JAN2014     24.2 0.1     25.1-0.5     26.0-0.5     28.2-0.2
 15JAN2014     25.0 0.6     25.2-0.4     25.9-0.7     28.0-0.3
 22JAN2014     25.4 0.6     25.6-0.2     26.2-0.4     28.1-0.1
 29JAN2014     25.4 0.2     25.3-0.7     25.9-0.7     27.9-0.2
 05FEB2014     25.1-0.4     25.3-0.8     25.9-0.7     28.1 0.0
 12FEB2014     25.4-0.6     25.4-0.9     26.2-0.5     28.5 0.4
 19FEB2014     25.1-1.1     25.7-0.7     26.4-0.4     28.5 0.4
 26FEB2014     25.5-0.7     26.0-0.6     26.3-0.6     28.2 0.1
 05MAR2014     26.1-0.3     26.4-0.5     26.6-0.4     28.5 0.3
 12MAR2014     25.8-0.6     26.8-0.3     26.8-0.4     28.7 0.6
 19MAR2014     25.2-1.2     27.3 0.1     27.4 0.1     28.8 0.6

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for)

This same week in 1997, Niño 3.4 was also 0.1 C. Coincidentally, having also increased 0.5 C that week.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 09:09:59 PM
Laurent,

To answer your question about where the warm water is coming from that is now entering the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific, it is coming from the Western Equatorial Pacific, where it has been stockpiled by several years worth of unusually strong Pacific trade winds (look back through this thread for details), and now that the Equatorial Pacific trade winds have diminished and now that strong westerly winds have appeared in the Western Equatorial Pacific; this stockpiled water is now traveling as an Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, from the West to the East.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 24, 2014, 09:20:32 PM
deep octopus,

Based on the data in Reply #356 that you posted (ie that the Nino3.4 index increased by 0.5 from March 12 to March 19 to a five day old value of +0.1); it is starting to look like my estimate that the Nino3.4 index would exceed +0.5 by the first week in April may have been too conservative, as it is possible that that value could be exceeded by the end of this week.  If so, a 2014-15 El Nino may very well be stronger that the 1997-98 event.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 24, 2014, 09:49:49 PM
I think it's certainly reasonable that 2014-2015 could pan out to be more severe and more protracted than 1997-1998. El Niño conditions began around April 23, 1997 and ended around May 20, 1998. We're looking at El Niño conditions to start up any day now, though compared to 1997, we are basically on equal footing. Still, the start to this year could jump 1997 by an entire month, if the short-term fluctuations work out that way.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 24, 2014, 10:00:34 PM
Well, if it turns out to be a exceptionally strong El niño event as many of us believe there will be some significant events that will be really interesting:

*) how many cat 5 hurricanes will show up in the Eastern Pacific and the Western Pacific? and just how calm will the season be in the Atlantic?

**) How much rain will California get next winter? Even if the rain will be much needed in that case it will also bring billion dollar costs due to flooding and so...

***) How big will the new global record annual high be?

****) Have I forgotten something that I should've been written here? ;D ::)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2014, 02:35:38 AM
deep octopus,

I agree with you that we need to be cautious; as fluctuations in a non-linear system can move the system in different directions, so we always need the most current data such as:

The attached image of the 30-day moving average of the SOI has a March 25 2014 value of -12.6.  While this number has become less negative in the past few days, it is still providing reinforcement from the atmosphere to assist the EKW to possibly switch the Pacific into an El Nino condition.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 25, 2014, 04:49:08 AM
Non-linear is right. Ocean dynamics is a particularly taxing field of physics. If we enlarge the scale, we can sometimes reveal something of a linear change: El Niño has an often straightforward trough to peak change over the average course of a single event, but it's when we shrink the scale and over generalize that we run into problems. I'm very much banking on El Niño forcings to wipeout negative feedbacks, but the day to day observations can be confusing and make you agonize with the thought that you really don't understand. It's fortunate that so many factors are coming together so agreeably to (seemingly anyway) make observing these events easier for students to nature as myself. I trust that these unanimous trends in the winds and the currents are bona fide and not about to hoodwink me. But watching the sea ice's signals only fade to smoke and mirrors has made me less trusting overall. Arctic sea ice may be the most capricious ocean system I've ever made the mistake if trying to pin down. Once bitten, twice shy. Large systems like the tropical Pacific have a longer observed history to apprecuate. This El Niño to be, I say again cautiously, looks pretty real.

Also prescient is the horrible news of the mudslides in Washington state. It is an eerie dress rehearsal to what may befall western North America next winter.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: icefest on March 25, 2014, 05:29:35 AM
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has updated their assessment of the likelihood of an ENSO this year.

No words of judgement regarding a super Nino

Quote
While the tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, the chance of an El Niño occurring in 2014 has increased. The latest climate model survey by the Bureau shows that the tropical Pacific is likely to warm in the coming months, with most models showing sea surface temperatures reaching El Niño thresholds during the southern hemisphere winter.
Observations indicate that the tropical Pacific Ocean is currently warming. Following two strong westerly wind bursts since the start of the year, waters below the surface of the tropical Pacific have warmed significantly over the past two months. This has led to some warming at the surface, with further warming expected in the coming weeks. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has dropped to –13—the lowest 30-day value since March 2010—but would need to remain firmly negative for several weeks to indicate the atmosphere and ocean are reinforcing each other.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 25, 2014, 07:41:55 AM
It looks like TAO 110 has gone down so TAO 155 is the last one still transmitting. Such a shame to lose a long term data set right when it might illuminate the change in how our oceans ventilate during
an El Nino.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: icefest on March 25, 2014, 08:15:24 AM
Don't hold your breath for Australian funding for any new TAO system. The current science minister of Australia, err no, that post has been abolished.
The Minister for Environment is too busy quoting wikipedia and retracting climate funding to help either.

I hope my apology on behalf of my Government will suffice.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2014, 11:55:15 AM
deep octopus,

I agree that if one tries to look to closely (in order to try to appease the insatiable appetite of decision makers for predictions to help them with their decisions all made on the margin) then climate change resolved down into weather patterns, which show no long-term trends; in effect one "cannot see the forest for all these trees in the way".  Any coming El Nino (super or otherwise) will unfold at its own pace and time.

icefest,

Thanks for posting the BoM's weekly ENSO wrap-up that notes that the chance of an El Nino occurring in 2014 has increased.  In Replies #315 and #344 I provide quotes from scientists indicating that if the chances of an El Nino occurring this year increase, then the chances of a Super El Nino occurring are as high as 80%.  The BoM statement also notes that we are still several weeks away from knowing whether the atmospheric and oceanic systems start mutually reinforcing each other, and I believe that that is correct as the EKW is still in the process of surfacing.  It will be interesting to watch unfold.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ccgwebmaster on March 25, 2014, 04:52:22 PM
I'm going to confess significant ignorance about ENSO - but is it wrong to expect that if there is a strong El Nino we will probably see another round of major coral damage/death?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JimD on March 25, 2014, 05:00:20 PM
I'm going to confess significant ignorance about ENSO - but is it wrong to expect that if there is a strong El Nino we will probably see another round of major coral damage/death?

Coming to a theater near you.

Quote
Coral reef ecosystems world-wide have been subject to unprecedented degradation over the past few decades. Disturbances affecting coral reefs include anthropogenic and natural events. Recent accelerated coral reef decline seems to be related mostly to anthropogenic impacts (overexploitation, overfishing, increased sedimentation and nutrient overloading. Natural disturbances which cause damage to coral reefs include violent storms, flooding, high and low temperature extremes, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, subaerial exposures, predatory outbreaks and epizootics. 

http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm (http://www.marinebiology.org/coralbleaching.htm)

johnfbruno.web.unc.edu/files/2011/11/Bruno-et-al-2001.pdf
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 25, 2014, 05:09:35 PM
Ccg, Bleaching is a function of heat + time of exposure. NOAA maintains satellite temperature maps that can show worldwide "watch" areas for bleaching. As heat builds up in the Western Pacific as is the normal summer condition that is where you can expect to see bleaching events. As that built up heat moves into the Eastern Pacific the "watch" areas will most assuredly concentrate there. Cocos Island was very hard hit in 97-98 for example and whatever regrowth has occurred in the last decade will now bleach and die again till someday soon corals start to become locally extinct.

 http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php (http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on March 25, 2014, 05:40:11 PM
A strong/super EP Nino will also likely have significant impacts on the Amazon rainforest in the form of a drought.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2014, 08:03:38 PM
A strong/super EP Nino will also likely have significant impacts on the Amazon rainforest in the form of a drought.

See also the video & discussion over at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,761.msg21507.html#msg21507 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,761.msg21507.html#msg21507)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 25, 2014, 11:27:15 PM
The Australian BoM has just posted the attached image of the Nino3.4 time series ending with a weekly average (for the week ending March 23 2014) of +0.13; which represents a +0.18 increase from the comparable value for the BoM value for the week ending March 16 2014; and is only represents a +0.03 increase from the NOAA value for the week ending March 19 2014, that deep octopus posted.

This indicates that changes in the Nino3.4 index are not linear, or guaranteed at this point, and it might be a two or three weeks yet before the EKW comes to the surface enough to start providing more positive reinforcement to the atmosphere (to support an El Nino condition).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 02:52:54 AM
The attached image for the 30-Day Moving Average for the SOI ending March 26 2014 have a value of -12.5; which indicates that perhaps the ocean and atmosphere are starting to reinforce each other in changing to an El Nino condition:

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 01:35:18 PM
The first attached image shows the earth surface wind map for March 26 2014; which shows that the intensity of the Pacific trade wind is decreasing.

The second image shows that the equatorial cloud cover near the date line for March 26 2014 remains abnormally high.

Both of these trends indicate that the atmosphere and the ocean are starting to reinforce each other for a switch to an El Nino state.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 03:54:09 PM
The following linked reference (with a free access pdf) confirms that most current ENSO projection models (used by NOAA, BoM, etc.) treat westerly wind bursts, WWBs, as random (stochastic) forcing events; however, particularly for strong El Nino events this paper indicates that there is a SST-WWB feedback loop where a strong Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, creates more WWBs than normal which then strengthens the EKW (as we have seen this year).  Furthermore, WWB's are most likely during the period from November through to April; and therefore, I am concerned that as the current EKW surfaces in the by the end of March, that April may well experience an increase in the number and severity of tropical storms (and possibly typhoons), that together with the MJO that is projected to reach the Central Equatorial Pacific by late April (or possibly not); these two factors could kick the current fledgling El Nino event into high gear:

Geoffrey Gebbie & Eli Tziperman, (2008), "Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model", Theor Appl Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0069-6

https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089 (https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089)

Abstract: "Prediction models of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon often represent westerly wind bursts (WWBs), a significant player in ENSO dynamics, as stochastic forcing. A recent paper developed an observationally motivated semi-stochastic statistical model that quantifies the dependence of WWBs on large-scale sea-surface temperature. This WWB model is added here to a hybrid coupled model, thus activating a two-way SST-WWB feedback. The WWB model represents both the deterministic and stochastic elements of WWBs and thus is especially appropriate for ensemble ENSO prediction experiments. An ensemble of retrospective forecasts is performed for the years 1979–2002. Overall statistical measures of predictability are neither degraded nor improved relative to the hybrid, coupled general circulation model, perhaps because of the limitations of the hybrid coupled model and the initialization procedure used. While the present work is meant as a proof-of-concept, it is found that the addition of the WWB model does improve the prediction of the onset and the development of the large 1997 warm event, pointing to the potential for ENSO prediction skill improvement using this approach."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 05:23:23 PM
According to one Internet site, the following are some consequences of an El Nino event:

Primary effects: these are directly caused.
Alteration of weather patterns which include: Temperature changes, Precipitation changes, Storm track changes and intensity, and Alteration of currents and ocean temperature

Secondary effects: these are some consequences:
Fires, Drought, Flooding, Economic changes, price of heating, food, etc., Political and social unrest, Crash of some fisheries, Famine, Plagues (e.g.: hanta virus, flu), Insect population explosion leading to disease and plagues, and Crop failures.

Some benefits of El Niño:
Fewer hurricanes and other tropical cyclones in the north Atlantic, Milder winters in southern Canada and the northern continental United States, Replenishment of water supplies in the southwestern U.S. , and Less disease in some areas due to drier weather (like malaria in southeastern Africa).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 09:08:12 PM
If you compare the SST anomaly at the Tropical Date Line area, for the first image for March 24 and the second image for March 25 2014; you will see that in only one day the water temperatures are increasing markedly at the EKW surfaces.  This will help with the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern, showing growing synergy between the ocean and the atmosphere.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 26, 2014, 10:19:24 PM
If the 2014-15 season roughly matches the 1997-98 Super El Nino season, then by this coming mid-August the global SST anomaly could very well look like the attached (which could have some impact on some limited portion of the Arctic Sea Ice Extent):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 27, 2014, 12:13:42 AM
here is a small GIF of the SST anomalies through the month of March. 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 01:14:06 AM
As pointed-out in the ASIB (by Colorado Bob), the larger climate change blogs like robertscribber and thinkprogress, are now acknowledging that an El Nino event may likely happen sooner, rather than later, this year (see links below):

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/monster-el-nino-emerging-from-the-depths-nose-of-massive-kelvin-wave-breaks-surface-in-eastern-pacific/ (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/25/monster-el-nino-emerging-from-the-depths-nose-of-massive-kelvin-wave-breaks-surface-in-eastern-pacific/)

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/26/3417812/el-nino-extreme-weather-global-temperature/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/03/26/3417812/el-nino-extreme-weather-global-temperature/)

Also, the Peruvian Government formally acknowledges that it is likely that an El Nino could start in April (Peru is effected by an El Nino sooner than the rest of the world so their forecasts need to be more proactive), as discussed at the link below:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-peru-elnino-fishing-idUSBREA2I21C20140319)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 03:34:10 AM
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI for March 27 2014 (Sydney Time); which remains unchanged from yesterday's value of -12.5.  Thus it does seem that the ocean and the atmosphere are starting to reinforce each other synergistically:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on March 27, 2014, 01:35:49 PM
Models seem to be agreeing on rapid move to El Nino, particularly the recent ones (blue):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=3ba1ae7533e10661c1998f089a740ad3)

but more recent models seem to be going fairly flat in weak el nino conditions.

Only 1 model below 0.5 by November so El Nino look highly likely at some stage and early April a strong candidate but indications of 'super' from models isn't very clear - just yet anyway. May well be sensible to be concerned about super El Nino from other information posted here rather than relying on models too much though.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 02:24:17 PM
One of the best ways to manage the uncertainties associated with ENSO related events is to hold someone responsible for the consequences for those events.  For example, the Peruvian government has issued an El Nino warning for April 2014 (see Reply #380), as the serious consequences of an El Nino to their economy forces them to use robust decision making, RDM, to take precautionary measures.  Another example (that is the focus of this post) is the insurance industry, who will bear significant economic losses from a severe El Nino unless their forecasts adequately justify either higher premiums and/or cancellation of high-risk policies; as illustrated by the following linked article (from March 3 2014) about a statistical based model to better assess the risks for tropical cyclones (typhoons) in the Western North Pacific (WNP) linked to variations of storm tracks associated with ENSO fluctuations.  While, the whole article is educational, I post the abstract and a key extract from the article below (together with few of my comments on the interpretation of these finding as related to our current situation):

http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/03/04/enso-effect-on-east-asian-tropical-cyclone-landfall-via-changes-in-tracks-and-ge-a-468934.html#.UzQZFaPn_IU (http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2014/03/04/enso-effect-on-east-asian-tropical-cyclone-landfall-via-changes-in-tracks-and-ge-a-468934.html#.UzQZFaPn_IU)

Abstract: "Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Niño-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Niño years to the northwest in La Niña years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Niña. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Niña-year increases."

Selected Extract: "The most important change of WNP TCs with ENSO appears to be the shift in genesis location to the southeast during strong El Nino events and to the northwest during strong La Nina events (Chan 1985, 2000; Dong 1988; Lander 1994; Saunders et al. 2000; Wang and Chan 2002; Chia and Ropelewski 2002; Camargo et al. 2007a). The shift is explained by the location of the monsoon trough in the WNP shifting eastward during El Nino events (Lander 1994) along with a reduction in vertical wind shear (Clark and Chu 2002), which both dictate favorable conditions for genesis. This shift results in changes in the tracks of the subsequent TCs: those that form in the southeast have longer lifetimes and tend to recurve northward as compared with those that form in the northwest that move straight westward onto land (Wang and Chan 2002). Elsner and Liu (2003) further studied the ENSO effect on tracks and implications for landfall, finding that strong El Nino years correspond with northward recurving TC tracks, which are likely to make landfall on Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and northern China. During La Nina years, TC tracks move in a straighter westward path, putting the Philippines, southern China, and Vietnam at higher risk. The TC-track cluster analysis performed by Camargo et al. (2007c) for the WNP demonstrates that the different genesis regions associated with El Nino (La Nina) years are also associated with longer (shorter) tracks. One important implication is that El Nino-year TC tracks in the WNP have more of an opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel over the warm tropical ocean given a genesis location closer to the equator and farther eastward. El Nino-year TCs may also reach higher latitudes when they curve northward, before making landfall (Camargo and Sobel 2005; Chan and Liu 2004; Camargo et al. 2007c). The last two effects are important when making a landfall risk assessment in terms of landfall intensity and landfall location."

Key considerations relating these findings to our current situation include:

- Super Typhoon Haiyan, which occurred in ENSO neutral conditions in November 2013, fed rapidly on the very warm deep waters piled-up in the Western Pacific by the historically strong trades winds for the several years preceding that event, and then moved nearly due west to hit the Philippines as the strongest storm in history.

- Super Typhoons are more likely to occur (resulting in more numerous events) during a strong El Nino event because in El Nino years the storm tracks occur closer to the equator and farther eastward (than during neutral or La Nina conditions), and thus the storms have more opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel longer distances over the warm tropical ocean, while curving northward towards high targets with high economic value in Japan, Korea and Northern China.

- Due to the more southeasterly locations for the locations of genesis of typhoons during strong El Nino conditions; the westerly wind bursts, WWBs, associated with these geneses provide a strong positive feedback to strength the El Nino event.

- The closer that we get to the peak typhoon (tropical cyclone/storm) activity season (July-October), the more likely we are to get positive WWB feedback from tropical storms for strengthening the current fledgling El Nino; which is one of the reasons (together with the projected coming of the MJO in the Pacific) that I am concerned about a major typhoon occurring in April (similar to Super Typhoon Isa) that could kick our current El Nino into the Super category.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 27, 2014, 02:41:35 PM
With the newest OSPO anomaly chart, the Pacific basin has mostly above-average SSTs uniformly along the equator. I take away from this that the EKW has surfaced throughout, though GODAS charts of the subsurface that would show this are only updated to March 19th at this point. Yet, we have the clearest signal to date that the Niño 3.4 region is now firmly in a positive phase.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.3.27.2014.gif&hash=3a3ea517f1c3af4676ad4b5fb3b9b39c)

There's a bit of upwelling still occurring off of South America, but not much. The presence of warm water off of the Peruvian and Chilean coastlines may indicate that the Humboldt Current is getting stressed by the EKW, and this would effectively short circuit the key source of cool water flowing into the equatorial Pacific. What else, the western Pacific warm pool is still heavily orange, and this indicates that there is quite a reservoir of heat waiting in the wings for more Kelvin wave action. A strong push of westerlies would rush this across a Pacific already getting hammered by the strongest Kelvin wave since at least 1997. And as ASLR just indicated, this persistent warm pool along the equator is tinder for super typhoons to intensify. The OSPO chart above and the Wikipedia map of the 1997 Pacific typhoon season below show that the warm pool and the genesis of typhoons in 1997 are similarly located around the Marshall Islands at 170 W. With this piece of history, there is grand potential for strong typhoons to bring extreme weather to east Asia and also cause El Niño to fester.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F6%2F6d%2F1997_Pacific_typhoon_season_summary.jpg&hash=1b35fa63de4d9dc09daec7c065a7a75b)

In addition, the PDO warm phase is making itself at home. Nothing from the OSPO charts indicates a warm PDO phase quite this strongly since about 2005.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 03:26:30 PM
As I do not have time to adequately summarize all of the reasons (previously stated in this thread) that "process-based" ENSO projections (including the ensemble forecasts posted by NOAA) do not adequately capture the probabilities associated with the formation of Super El Nino events; therefore, I will make a brief post to reinforce some of the points that deep octopus just made in his Rely #384.

The attached image shows a typical strong El Nino condition similar to those conditions currently shown by deep octopus, to a period of about two weeks from now.  Key points to be made about this image include:

- The reversed atmospheric pressure system across the Tropical Pacific is currently indicated by the -12.5 SOI value; which is weakening the trade winds; which allows gravity to induce eastward flow of the warm water stockpiled (with a gravitational potential energy head) in the Western Tropical Pacific; even in the absence of strong westerlies.
- The image shows that as the EKW impacts South America is forms two pole-ward coastal-trapped (Kelvin) waves (CTWs) that branch both northward and southward; and this southward branching CTW diminishes both the upwelling of cold water of the coast of Peru, and the diminishes the northwesterly flow of the Peru-Humboldt Current (that typically feeds cold water into the Equatorial Pacific).
- The warm SSTs near the equatorial date line area helps to support the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern that generate westerly winds in the Western Equatorial Pacific that also forces more of the large pool of warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific eastward.

While such conditions do not guarantee that a strong El Nino will form, in a non-stochastic world, they do increase the odds that a Super may well be coming.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 27, 2014, 04:52:32 PM
Todays ECMWF 00z forecast put a very interesting sign! In about a week or so a tropical cyclone may form in the Western North Pacific.. The 00z forecast indicates an almost westerly track at a very low latitude for TC, only about 7-8N.. And yes, that may mean big trouble for Phillippinia.. If this mornings forecast run continues next days we might see something really nasty next month.. Since 1996 and onward four TC's in WPAC have managed to reach at least category 4 intensity in april (Isa in 1997 was the only one to reach cat 5). Those years were 1997 and 2003-2005.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 07:41:48 PM
The attached image from the BoM (see link) shows the pathway of the MJO over the past 40-days (see explanatory note for the image below).  This image shows that from mid-February to early March a reasonably strong MJO was in the Pacific where it may have contributed to some of the WWBs that helped strengthen the EKW in that period.  The figure also shows that the MJO is currently relatively weak and has not quite made it into the Indian Ocean.  We will see when, and at what strength, it returns to the Pacific; and whether it then helps to strengthen the El Nino that likely will be gaining strength between now and the end of April (when the MJO might arrive in the Pacific).

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/)

Explanatory Note: "The MJO phase diagram illustrates the progression of the MJO through different phases, which generally coincide with locations along the equator around the globe. RMM1 and RMM2 are mathematical methods that combine cloud amount and winds at upper and lower levels of the atmosphere to provide a measure of the strength and location of the MJO. When the index is within the centre circle the MJO is considered weak, meaning it is difficult to discern using the RMM methods. Outside of this circle the index is stronger and will usually move in an anti-clockwise direction as the MJO moves from west to east. For convenience, we define 8 different MJO phases in this diagram."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 27, 2014, 07:50:02 PM
Thanks Lord Vader,

It will be very interesting to see what storm activity we can expect in the coming weeks. If MJO returns in late April, that could really double down on an El Niño.

We've been trying to determine just how serious this Kelvin wave is, and a couple of graphics of subsurface temperatures "looking from above" from NOAA really put this one into sharp relief.

At 155 meters below the surface, a 7 C (yes, seven) anomaly pocket is forming at 160 W. I have to admit, this blows me away. I expect a 7 C pocket to show up in the next weekly equatorial subsurface temperature graphs from NOAA. Notice, too, the widening of the warmest zones over the latitudes. This is a beastly, monster Kelvin wave.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq2_anm_155m.gif&hash=38e2b7c4b6a7b3ddce3ed6361f2f79f5)

At 105 meters, a 6 C pocket is forming at 130 W.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq2_anm_105m.gif&hash=484ab7e037c1a664652c8917e2aeae3b)

In addition, the thermocline is undergoing some dramatic deepening over the central Pacific. There is some lifting of the isotherm in the west, suggesting an overall flatter isotherm over the Pacific. Gravity, as it were, is helping to ripple the warm water over to the eastern Pacific.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkd20eq2_anm.gif&hash=4800c2f89e7e294004b7ab60e4665786)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 27, 2014, 08:02:48 PM
And as ASLR just indicated, this persistent warm pool along the equator is tinder for super typhoons to intensify. The OSPO chart above and the Wikipedia map of the 1997 Pacific typhoon season below show that the warm pool and the genesis of typhoons in 1997 are similarly located around the Marshall Islands at 170 W. With this piece of history, there is grand potential for strong typhoons to bring extreme weather to east Asia and also cause El Niño to fester.

I have a son and daughter who are both teaching in the Marshall Islands. They love it but they have stories about how frightening strong storms can be.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 27, 2014, 08:21:10 PM
Doc Ock, did you see the latest ECMWF 12z forecast? Interestingly, the presumptive TC in the WPAC seems to get even stronger in this run... And it also looks to track along 150E-140E and together with the fact that it in that case will track on a low latitude it would certainly give the WWB some extra kick..

And yes, next update from NOAA on monday will certainly be extremely interesting as we then enter april 1... If it then is a 7C anomaly at that analysis, it will absolutely make one wonder where it will end... It would be very interesting to see a similar analysis for the SST anomaly for the 1997-1998 El Niño event at various depths!!

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 27, 2014, 10:07:02 PM
I believe that the attached series of three images of forecast tropical storm activity in the Western North Pacific for April 2,3 & 4, respectively, is the storm that Lord Vader is referring to, and if it occurs, it will certainly kick more warm water eastwards.

Also, a 7 degree C anomaly indicates to me that climate change is likely making El Nino's stronger than in the past (just as Super Typhoon Haiyan was the strongest on record), and I note that the maximum temperature anomaly for the 1997-98 EKW was just 4.5 degrees C.

Finally, I thought that I would post the following three quotes, saying: (a) AccuWeather is confident that an El Nino has begun; (b) the 1997-98 El Nino caused an estimate $35-$45 billion in damage & 23,000 deaths; and (c) we have now gone about 45 months without a proper El Nino while the longest period since 1950 without an El Nino was 50 months, so we should have a large amount of energy stored in the ocean:

"According to AccuWeather Long Range Forecaster Mark Paquette, "We are confident that an El Niño is in the early stages of developing and may reach moderate strength moving forward into mid- to late summer of 2014."
From:
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-impact-will-the-coming-el/24864631 (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/what-impact-will-the-coming-el/24864631)

"The strongest El Nino ever recorded occurred in 1997-98. It led to heavy rains across the southern U.S., landslides in Peru, wildfires in Indonesia, and the cratering of the anchovy fishery in the eastern Pacific. These and other impacts were responsible an estimated $35-45 billion in damage and 23,000 deaths worldwide."
From:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976 (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/climate-change-could-make-super-el-ninos-more-likely-16976)

"We've now got 43 months without a proper El Niño and no matter what happens, we know it will be a couple more months like this, therefore it is extremely interesting to note that there have been no recorded periods of more than 50 months without El Niño since 1950."
From Reply #13 on January 22 2014; so it has now been 45 months without a proper El Nino.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 27, 2014, 10:21:10 PM
ASLR: the very same TC indeed  8) It will be interesting now to see if ECMWF continues to forecast this TC the coming days. And as you said it will for certain kick more warm water eastward due to its westerly track along low latitudes... We will then be in the beginning of april but if that TC keeps a westerly track it will likely be really bad news for Phillippinia.. Especially if it takes a similar path like Haiyan did...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2014, 02:11:28 AM
As the attached image of the 30-Day Moving Average SOI through March 27 2014 has become more negative with a value of -13.0; it appears that the ocean-atmosphere synergy is strengthening so I would expect the Nino3.4 to be near or higher than +0.5.  We will need to see how fast this fledgling El Nino gains in intensity.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2014, 03:20:39 PM
The attached Tropical Storm forecast for April 4 2014, is advanced by 12 hrs from the image in Reply #391 for the same date, and this figure indicates that the storm centered around 140E & 5.5N is clearly forecast to be gaining strength, & will most likely hit the Philippines as a typhoon, and will kick a good amount of warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific towards the east (which will strengthen the growing El Nino).

I would like to note that while the NOAA (and other ensemble model) "official" and "semi-official" forecasts  only acknowledge slow to moderate intensification of our current El Nino condition; any prudent decision maker should now be considering the probability that the 2014-15 will be more severe than the 1997-98 event (based on: (a) the strength of the current EKW; (b) the earlier start of both the current El Nino event and the typhoon season [and that the genesis locations for the typhoons in this current season appear to be closer to the equator where they provide positive feedback for the El Nino; (c) the currently positive indices for both the IPO & the PDO; (d) chaotic strange attractors can amplify strong El Ninos faster than weak El Ninos; (e) the CTWs appear to be reducing the flow of cold water from the Peru-Humboldt current into the equatorial region, as well as reducing upwelling off the cost of Peru; (e) the SOI is currently -13.0 and is trending towards more negative values; (f) the ocean heat content in the Equatorial Pacific is greater than at any time in recorded history; (g) the AGW is proceeding on a BAU pathway which provides positive feedback to strengthen an El Nino; (h) in my opinion many of the Earth System's positive feedback mechanisms (e.g.: GHG from tropical rain forests, polar albedo, tropical cloud cover, and permafrost degradation) could preferentially strengthen a Super El Nino; (i) the MJO is projected to re-enter the Pacific by late April; and (j) the IOD is projected to be positive by the Fall of 2014 (austral Spring), which raises the possibility that a 2014-15 El Nino event could grow into a 2014-2016 event.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 28, 2014, 04:36:53 PM
The fact that we may be entering a transition into a strong/super (or maybe within the bounds of a fat-tail potential for an extreme--let's say a seasonal Niño 3.4 index above 2.5 C) El Niño raises the disturbing possibility of global temperature records getting shattered. Not just beating 2010, but completely obliterating it. The most extreme temperature anomalies would be expected begin during autumn of 2014 and persist through the spring months of 2015. The room for volatility grows with the strength of El Niño. Lagged surface temperature responses to Niño 3.4 have a tendency to amplify with a warm Niño 3.4 far more strongly than during the opposite phase in La Niña. In other words, a strongly warm Niño 3.4 index should result in much warmer atmospheric responses, while a strongly cold Niño 3.4 index has comparatively smaller atmospheric responses.

Even weak El Niño events have shown to result in severe temperature anomalies. The weak 2006-2007 El Niño resulted in the warmest month ever recorded: January 2007, with a 0.94 C anomaly over 1951-1980. As a weak event, the temperature response was sharp, but rather short, as La Niña quickly moved in. This may have prevented 2007 from being the hottest year on record at the time.

A back of the envelope calculation of changes in NASA global temps during the northern hemisphere cold season (November through April--also the peak of ENSO-atmosphere response) gives us some examples of what the strongest El Niños are capable of doing:

Average global Nov-Apr anomalies compared to previous year

1956-1957 (neutral): -0.09 C
1957-1958 (strong El Niño): +0.16 C
Delta: +0.25 C

1971-1972 (neutral/weak La Niña): -0.08 C
1972-1973 (strong El Niño): +0.23 C
Delta: +0.31 C

1981-1982 (neutral): +0.11 C
1982-1983 (strong El Niño): +0.33 C
Delta: +0.22 C

1996-1997 (neutral): +0.40 C
1997-1998 (strong El Niño): +0.66 C
Delta: +0.26 C

Average delta: +0.26 C

By no means is every ENSO signal isolated--volcanic eruptions, aerosols, and other short-term climate factors add distortion. In fact, the 1982-1983 event was muted by the El Chichon eruption. But mercifully, we see that these strong El Niños followed relatively neutral ENSO conditions from the previous year, so we have something of a "control" here for the delta calculations, at least with respect to ENSO.

The average delta for these four events was about +0.26 C.

Supposing 2013-2014 is our neutral backdrop, and assuming the November-April period will have an average of +0.60 C, it's reasonable that 2014-2015 will average +0.86 C a month from November 2014-April 2015. This would probably make 2014 the hottest year on record, and 2015 even hotter.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2014, 05:28:45 PM
deep octopus,

I like your mean global temperature anomaly risk analysis for 2014-15.  Attached is a graph of the increase in the variance of El Nino during the Anthropocene; indicating to me that strong El Ninos are gaining strength with increasing global warming, and I am personally concerned that by December 2014 to January 2015 that the Nino3.4 could get into the range of +3.0.

Also, I noted that per the following NOAA information the December 1997 Nino3.4 index value was +2.69:

YR   MON  NINO1+2   ANOM   NINO3    ANOM   NINO4    ANOM NINO3.4    ANOM     
1997  12      26.92       4.13      28.76    3.62      29.32     0.83   29.26        2.69

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 28, 2014, 06:19:34 PM
Just to remind people that due to the convex shape of the EKW for the week ending March 23 2014 the Nino3 value of +0.23 (see first attachment), and the Nino4 value of +0.51 (see attachment 2) were both more positive than the corresponding Nino3.4 value of +0.13. However, as the EKW surfaces one can expect the Nino3.4 index to raise relatively rapidly (see the third attachment showing the locations of areas 3, 3.4 and 4, which you can compare to the locations of the submerged temperature anomalies that deep octopus provides in Reply #388):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on March 28, 2014, 10:39:08 PM
An update to CPC to March 24th. The scale maxes out at +6C unlike the depth-time charts that can go above that (like the one that was pegged at +7 posted earlier).

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif&hash=7aa1ec151fc8bc4500c22e602b6723ee)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 12:29:50 AM
Csnavywx,

Thanks for the image that you posted.  When you stop to think that the length of the underwater region with temperature anomalies above +6 is about as long as the distance between Portugal and the Ural Mountains (ie the length of Europe) you get a sense of the amount of heat being transported that has never been seen before in recorded history (as I noted before the peak temperature anomaly during the 1997-98 event was only +4.5 instead of something over +7 at the moment [and possibly still getting hotter]).  Who knows what will happen when this hot water runs into South America and branches pole-ward with two CTWs to Alaska and to Terra del Forego.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 12:54:38 AM
I am posting the attached extreme water elevation plot for the Fort Point tide station in San Francisco (which is the oldest tide station in North America), from the following website:

http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9414290 (http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=9414290)

The plot show the monthly highest water level with the 1%, 10%, 50%, and 99% annual exceedance probability levels in red, orange, green, and blue. The plotted values are in meters relative to the Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) datum established by CO-OPS (1 foot = 0.3 meters). On average, the 1% level (red) will be exceeded in only one year per century, the 10% level (orange) will be exceeded in ten years per century, and the 50% level (green) will be exceeded in fifty years per century. The 99% level (blue) will be exceeded in all but one year per century, although it could be exceeded more than once in other years.

This plot shows that the extreme water level in SF was actually higher during the 1982-83 El Nino than during the 1997-98 El Nino, probably because of superimposed astronomical tides.  Thus if we have a Super El Nino in 2014-15 we could easily exceed the 1% exceedance probability level; which would mean to me that NOAA might need to re-calibrate their exceedance probability curves.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 01:35:32 AM
The following link leads to a free pdf about the costs ($4 billion in losses) and benefits ($19 billion in savings) for the United States due to weather changes associate with the 1997-98 El Nino event; which implies that we need to consider the possible benefits of a 2014-15 EL Nino, at least for the USA.

http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf (http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on March 29, 2014, 01:41:32 AM
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html (http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html)

Evolution of the '97-98 event from Scripps.

It appears we are roughly at the stage where the 97-98 event was in April of '97 (complete with the warm bubble appearing near the dateline), but with stronger anomalies. Note that event went on to have some +10-11C subsurface anomalies during the peak of the event.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on March 29, 2014, 02:01:42 AM
The following link leads to a free pdf about the costs ($4 billion in losses) and benefits ($19 billion in savings) for the United States due to weather changes associate with the 1997-98 El Nino event; which implies that we need to consider the possible benefits of a 2014-15 EL Nino, at least for the USA.

http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf (http://flare.creighton.edu/schragej/ats553-backupplan/changnon.pdf)

Good for us, not so much for most of the rest of the world, unfortunately. Also, the long term effects (via disruption of normal carbon uptake by the biosphere) may offset some of that positive net short-term gain.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 02:51:35 AM
The attached image of the 30-day moving average of the SOI has a March 28 2014 value of -12.4.  While this number has been fluctuating in the past few days, it is still providing reinforcement from the atmosphere to strengthen the current El Nino condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 03:02:33 AM
Csnavywx,

Thanks for the great link to the Scripps summary about the 1997-98 El Nino.  This data makes it clear that when I said that the maximum temperature anomaly for the 1997-98 event was 4.5 C; I should have added: "at this point of the EKW development"; as obviously the maximum temperature anomaly for both our current EKM and the 1997-98 event occurs later in the year, at the peak of the event.  Although to my eye our current EKW looks larger than the 1997-98 EKW.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 03:12:48 AM
Attached is an animation of the subsea temperature anomaly from January 23 to March 24 2014, so that you can watch this monster grow:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 03:43:37 AM
The first attached image from the Albany University shows the vorticity & wind forecast for April 5 2014.  This show that the development of the tropical storm near 140E and 5.5 N has been delayed by at least one to two days.

The second attached image of the tropical storm forecast for April 7 2014 shows this storm may advance very close to the Philippines by this date.

The third image shows the storm by April 8 2014, showing that it is forecast to intensify significantly just before hitting the Philippines.

Obviously, forecasts this far in the future have a lot of uncertainty, but the last two images shows that the entire atmosphere on either side of the equator is forecast to have a lot of convective activity by the second week in April, so tropical storm/cyclones could start developing then with more frequency.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 29, 2014, 06:28:08 AM
I don't know near as much as Abrupt, but I think its way too early to be calling something that just isn't there.  There's a reason they use 30-90 day averages for this sort of stuff. 

If you believe in the 3.4 regional prediction at all, then you'd at least wait for a single month to breach the 0.5 threshold before calling out a super el-nino. 

Its just not present in the data as far as I can see...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 29, 2014, 08:56:36 AM
Here in Southern Calif. there are reports of Red Crab starting to show up. In every other big El Nino I have seen Red Crab are a biological signal that an El Nino is arriving. And yes I know it's early still.
ASLR has been calling this one way before NOAA and he also has made some projections about when the warm tongue is going to breach the surface in 3.4.  Other than annoying some commodity players I don't see the harm done in watching closely some of the interacting pieces besides the classic 3.4 surface waters. So we have learned a lot by his diligence and if ASLR turns out to be correct, and I believe he is , then next time everyone here watching will know a few of the drivers that preceed a big El Nino.

 

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: TerryM on March 29, 2014, 09:10:30 AM
AbruptSLR



The paper you linked to was by S A Changnon,
He's a warmist at best & is quoted widely by dyed in the wool skeptics.
I'd take anything he writes with a grain of salt.

Terry
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on March 29, 2014, 12:32:47 PM
David Chagnon (S.A. Chagnon's son) was my meteorology and climatology professor when I went to NIU. Both of them are a wealth of climate information. Their work is quite useful in the Midwestern US (Illinois in particular, where I live). I can honestly say, Dave at least is concerned about climate change. David had sizable AGW sections in his courses. Stan is more of a historian, but from reading his stuff, he was concerned about AGW. The fact that fake skeptics use and distort some of his material is not reason to throw everything in the trash can.


In this case, there's no secret that a strong El Nino would provide some significant short-term benefits to the Southwest US and perhaps even a mild winter next year (especially compared to this year). El Ninos are also pretty good at suppressing Atlantic hurricanes (although not perfectly effective). The short-term benefits of that are pretty obvious. In the long-term and globally, the picture is much different. El Nino is a significant net negative when viewed with that scope (and a especially negative when viewing through the scope of the tropical biosphere -- especially coral).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 02:24:17 PM
To respond to ChasingIce's comment: (a) I am not an authority and I do not "call" either an El Nino event, nor a "Super El Nino" event, and I have never criticized agencies like NOAA for requiring 5-months worth of readings over a given threshold (Nino3.4, MEI, SOI or otherwise) before "officially" "calling" an El Nino event, let alone a Super El Nino; (b) What I have noted here is that several professionals (e.g. AccuWeather, the Peruvian Government, etc) have said that we are now in at least a mild El Nino condition; and I have said that by the end of March (but probably not later than the end of the first week of April) I believe that the Nino3.4 index will be at, or above, +0.5; (c) I have also quoted professional who have stated that if an El Nino event occurs now that in at least in that professional's (an associate professor from the University of Albany) opinion there is an 80% chance that such an El Nino will grow into a Super El Nino by the end of this year; (d) I have then gone on to discuss the implications of a Super El Nino and to speculate that a 2014-15 Super El Nino may well be stronger than the 1997-98 event; and (f) finally, I have noted that it would be imprudent for many decision makers, such as North American West Coast, and Peruvian, fishermen, to wait until August, or September when agencies like NOAA finally express sufficient confidence in their projections to "call" a strong El Nino event, as in the case of Peruvian fishermen they will likely see changes starting in April, while North American West Coast fishermen will likely see changes starting in June, both due to the CTWs changing the coastal waters; however, decision makers such as California State Government officials who need to guard the state from flood damage in the winter can probably wait until September before putting emergency flood protection funds into action.

As I believe that ENSO events are governed by chaotic strange attractors, I believe that it is possible to make meaningful statements about the likelihoods and consequences of a Super El Nino well before the ensemble mean models can offer reliable projections (probably around August to September); based on solid evidence such as the size and intensity of the current EKW.  Therefore, if a Super El Nino has little negative consequence (or possible benefits) to you personally (say because you live in the North American East Coast and you can expect a mild winter with fewer hurricanes) then it is right and appropriate that you wait until NOAA have made an "official" call; but if you are living on the edge of serious negative consequences (23,000 deaths world-wide due to the 1997-98 El Nino), then I would advise you to pay attention to the signs that are clearly evident today.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 02:32:27 PM
Terry,

Thanks for the heads-up.  I think that in a constantly changing (non-stationary) world that we should all question all of our source information, but I do agree with Csnavywx that it is almost certain that in aggregate the USA will benefit more economically from a strong El Nino event in 2014-15 (like ending the droughts in California and the mid-West); while the world in aggregate will almost certainly sustain more economic losses than benefits (in- particular Asia will most likely sustain serious economic and human losses due to a large number of typhoons and Super Typhoons if a Super El Nino does develop).  I believe that getting the facts out will help individual decision makers to make the best decisions that they can both to reduce losses and to maximize benefits (such as reduced heating in Southern Canada and the US East Coast this coming winter).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 29, 2014, 03:44:47 PM
ASLR, If I used the word "calling" in some inappropriate way please excuse me. Any of us who use this or any other public forum will have to defend ourselves and I was only trying to show support for what you have been doing here.
 We have discussed in the past what the nature of a Black Swan event really is when certain odds of it's occurrence seem to present themselves. With that in mind I would like to say I think the combination of several factors, 1) a slowly rising sea level as documented by a long term data-set at San Francisco, 2) the chance of a large El Nino combined with a large Sierra snowpack and intensified early spring melts 3) an aged levy system 4) storm surge 5) King tide 2015 6) the ever present threat of large calif. earthquakes , the makes the chance ( however remote ) of losing the delta project and the Calif. water delivery system a possibility. Should that occur any benefits of a break in the drought will be nullified by the economic cost of that event. After any such catastrophe almost every elected official and person of authority will claim " Black Swan " but in reality other than the earthquake potential the date of that event is much more likely on those very predictable  king tide dates that come in early spring when snowpack melt and large rain events coincide here in Calif. during large El Nino events. The fact our reservoirs are currently very low does provide a certain amount of safety but they can fill fairly quickly.
 Completely off subject here but I have been standing on top of the biggest hill I can find shouting as loud as I can shout about the dangers of " ocean acidification ". I am no stranger to the criticism I bring upon myself for getting way out in front. It is never fun , never easy and there is no satisfaction in being proved correct.  There is a place in this world for such action although being proved wrong is obviously  a risk of the trade .   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 05:06:21 PM
Bruce,

I agree with the points that you make in your post, but now to get back to a review of the evidence available to us:

Due to NOAA's Toga-Tao buoy array the 1997-98-Super-El Nino event represents a unique case where we can look at real measured data (not computer model projections, which have limitations).  Therefore, I am posting four (for April, May & September 1997 and for January 1998) of the Scripps subsurface temperature anomaly plots from the site that Csnavywx provided a link to (see figure captions and link below):

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html (http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97.html)

Caption for the first image: "In April of 1997, something interesting happened. El Niños grow because of an unstable interaction between winds and the ocean that works like this: if the ocean warms in the center of the Pacific (where "D" is pointing to in the picture), then the winds tend to get weaker there. But when the winds get weaker, the ocean gets warmer. Then the winds get weaker still, and the process keeps going. For the current El Niño, you first see this starting to happen around April of 1997."

Caption for the second image: "By May, it's starting to look like it's going to be a big El Niño. The warm patch in the center of the Pacific, the one you could see forming in April, has started expanding to the east. At the same time, the surface waters off Peru are starting to get unusually warm. The warm anomaly below the surface is quite strong, over 6 degrees Celsius (about 11 F)."

Caption for the third image: "By September 1997, a strong El Niño is underway. Surface temperatures are 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (4 to 7 degrees F) warmer than usual, starting at the coast of South America and stretching to the dateline -- that's a quarter of the way around the planet!"

Caption for the fourth image: "In January of 1998, the El Niño is fully underway. The cold anomaly in the subsurface western Pacific has also expanded towards the east; this may be an early sign of an upcoming cold-water event ("La Niña")."

While I believe that the 1997-98 Super El Nino potentially may not be as severe as a 2014-15 El Nino [for reason such as: (i) 1997-98 was in a period of decreasing PDO while 2014-15 is in a period of increasing PDO/IPO; (ii) the 2014-15 EKW is occurring about one month earlier and for the same location of EKW is already more intense than the 1997-98 EKW; (iii) the ocean-atmosphere positive reinforcement loop is starting about one month earlier in 2014 than in 1997; (iv) the amount of warm water stored in the Western Equatorial Pacific has a larger volume and is warmer in 2014 than in 1997; and (v) there are already forecasts that the 2014 typhoon season may begin about one month earlier than in 1997], and that the 1982-83 El Nino might actually serve as a better case study for a possible 2014-15 Super El Nino [as: (a) it occurred during a period of increasing PDO/IPO; and (b) the recently ended period of increased La Nina events had built-up a meaningful pool of warm water in the Western Equatorial Pacific], nevertheless, we only have good data for the 1997-98 Super El Nino event (which of course is the strongest El Nino in recorded history so it is a good case study).  Therefore, I offer the following observations about the Scripps subsurface temperature anomaly images:
(a) As noted in the caption for the April 1997 image the stem of warm water labeled "D" near the dateline serves to initiate the positive ocean-atmosphere reinforcement that we are currently observing in March 2014, which is the signature indication that an El Nino event (mild or otherwise) is beginning.  The fact that the maximum temperature anomaly in April 1997 was only about 4.5 degrees C while the max. temp. anomaly by the end of March 2014 is over 7 degrees C, is most likely due to the facts that: (a) the water moving eastward from the Western Equatorial Pacific is more voluminous and warmer than in 1997, (b) the Peru-Humboldt current off the coast of Peru is being slowed down sooner [& thus is sending less cold water westward] than in 1997 [the fact that a deep warm-water bulb of water exists of the coast of Peru/Ecuador below -250m water depth in March 2014 is an indication to me that the upwelling  in this area is already being reduced because the 2014 EKW is so large that it ready reached the west coast of South America very early in the season so as to effect the Peru-Humboldt current very early]; and (c) the temperature anomaly is measured relative to the seasonal expected base temperature, so early arrival of the 2014 EKM has an effect on the temperature anomalies measured.
(b) The May 1997 subsurface temp. anomaly plot indicates that the PDO reinforcement in 1997 was comparable to (or less than) the current March PDO conditions as supported by the SST images that deep octopus posted for March 27 2014 (in Reply #384).  I would expect the shape of the April 2014 subsurface plots to be similar to the May 1997 plot, except that I would expect the maximum temperature anomaly in April 2014 to be at least 2.5 degrees C higher [and possibly more] than in May 1997.
(c) The September 1997 plot shows a strong El Nino had already formed, and that NOAA certainly made this information available publically; and I would expect that it is possible that similar condition may occur in 2014 by August, thus possibly allowing NOAA and other agencies even more time to provide advance warning of an impending Super El Nino.
(d) The January 1998 plot shows a cold-water EKW moving westward, signally the coming of the La Nina that followed the 1997-97 El Nino event.  While I believe that it is likely that if a Super El Nino occurs in 2014-15 that it will probably be followed by a La Nina; but depending on the Fall (austral Spring) IOD, it is possible that a 2014-15 Super El Nino could extend into 2016.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 29, 2014, 08:02:35 PM
Beautiful graphics. I find that three-dimensional visualization to be informative to explain the behavior of the Kelvin wave on the surface and below. Thanks ASLR, and thanks Csnavywx for sharing the link.

I'm also tending to be in the camp that if we get a moderate or strong El Niño, it will be followed by a similarly strong La Niña. The massive volume of warm water moving east, I suppose, must leave behind a vacuum of cooler water in the western Pacific. La Niña ensues to recharge the western Pacific warm pool. If PDO stays warm, then the La Niña will be muted, but present for sure. Will depend on Kelvin wave feedbacks of course. We very well could get a back-to-back El Niño for 2014-2016, but these are rare sets. Back-to-back El Niños were observed in 1986-1988, 1968-1970, and 1957-1959. I believe similar events occurred in the early 1940s. This is not always a function of PDO, as back-to-back events have occurred in cool PDO periods, but it is an interesting feature. We really won't know until the next Kelvin wave.

I distinctly remember winter 2009/2010 starting off very wet (two major snow storms in the mid-Atlantic region), typical for El Niño, and then by summer was hot and dry for days on end, before cathartic, very heavy downpours would ensue. Then the dry, but humid, heat waves would return for days and repeat the cycle. I take this summer pattern to be typical of La Niña in the eastern United States, with the warmth and relative dryness. The volatile bursts of storms and lingering heat waves were noteworthy in summer 2010, 2011, and 2012—all typical La Niña behaviors, amped up by climate change. I can imagine that some volatility in 2010 could be attributed to the rapid succession of the changing Pacific state, transitioning from moderate El Niño to strong La Niña. I can imagine summer 2015 being very hot if that kind of succession takes place. Who knows of course, it's well into the future right now.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 10:15:31 PM
deep octopus,

I am glad you enjoyed the graphics (I like them also, and I also found them educational).

Separately, the following links lead to articles from around the world indicating that many decision makers are deciding now (generally for entities that will be effected sooner rather than later) to take consideration of the risks of a strong 2014-15 El Nino into their plans/actions:

The first link indicates that in Brazil a major sugar grower has started to harvest their sugar cane early before local rains affect their harvest:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/brazil-sugar-gvo-idUSL1N0MP16H20140328 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/brazil-sugar-gvo-idUSL1N0MP16H20140328)

The second linked indicate that weathermen in Australia are issuing announcements that the risk of El Nino related droughts are increasing:

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/26/el-nino-threatens-australian-crops/ (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/03/26/el-nino-threatens-australian-crops/)

The third linked article (to an Indian newspaper) indicates that insurers (particularly in India) are starting to reduce their exposures to El Nino consequences:

http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/general-insurers-turn-cautious-on-el-nino-threat-114032800787_1.html (http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/general-insurers-turn-cautious-on-el-nino-threat-114032800787_1.html)

The fourth linked article indicates that experts in Peru have confirmed that CTWs will almost certainly enter their waters from Ecuador and will induce weak to moderate local El Nino conditions in April, and they advise local anchovy fishermen to start their fishing season early before the anchovy are driven away:

http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?monthyear=&day=27&id=67408&l=e&special=&ndb=1%20target= (http://www.fis.com/fis/worldnews/worldnews.asp?monthyear=&day=27&id=67408&l=e&special=&ndb=1%20target=)

Such article indicate that the El Nino experts hired by these relatively large decision makers, believe that either: (a) the current EKW has sufficient energy to create at least a weak El Nino without any further atmospheric reinforcement; and/or that (b) the oceanic-atmospheric reinforcement loop is currently well enough established that they can advise their clients to take precautionary measures (there are many other examples on the Internet that can be found with a simple search).

ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 29, 2014, 10:33:50 PM
The two attached images show a weather forecast for April 7 & 8 respectively, still indicate that a strong tropic storm will form around 140E and 5N by April 7 that will then strengthen fuller before it impact the Philippines on April 8 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on March 30, 2014, 12:33:35 AM
FishOutofWater, who frequently writes in Daily Kos, has posted a diary on the Kelvin wave. Most of what he writes has been covered extensively on this thread, but the comments provide additional information for anyone with a hardcore interest in this topic.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/28/1287920/-Huge-Wave-in-Pacific-Ocean-About-to-Hit-West-Coast-Will-Have-Global-Impacts# (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/03/28/1287920/-Huge-Wave-in-Pacific-Ocean-About-to-Hit-West-Coast-Will-Have-Global-Impacts#)

Quote
A Kelvin wave is a mass of warm(er) water that has no distinguishing features whatsoever besides that thermal difference. It is big enough to change how the entire ocean works, shifting currents, stopping upwellings (vertical currents), and otherwise changing the weather patterns above. Subtler, and much less dramatic than a tsunami, but perhaps no less hazardous when examined on a big scale over months and even years.

Emphasis my own.

Quote
The intensity of this Kelvin wave is news (61+ / 0-)

I pulled together some very fresh information from multiple reliable sources. If you take a good look at the first image you will see that the leading edge of the wave is beginning to warm up the surface waters on the equator. I have not been hyperbolic about the size of this Kelvin wave. It's the Jupiter of Kelvin waves.

Of course, I have known for months that an El Nino was likely. What's interesting is how this wave has developed into "a monster". That's news.

I hope that readers better understand how an El Nino works from reading this post.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on March 30, 2014, 12:37:39 AM
Abrupt:  I think you took my post in the wrong manner. 

I LOVE your posts, your excellent analysis (I'm learning a lot), and I absolutely support any talk about the dangers of another El Nino.  Being from Southern California, I'm also ROOTING for a modest change in the weather due to the drought.  There is a multi-billion dollar farming industry that is also rooting for such an event. 

I'm just a realist however, and we've had quite a number of years lately where an El Nino gets predicted down here, and then it fizzles.  Please forgive my posting style, as I came off a bit unbecoming and that was not my intent. 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2014, 04:15:14 AM
ChasingIce.

Thanks for your explanation.  It is still possible that this El Nino could fizzle (note that the attached SOI plot for March 30 2014 have become less negative and is now -11.8 ); however that said, no one has ever recorded an equatorial Kelvin wave as powerful as this current EKW; so I would be surprised if we do not experience at least 5 months of a moderate El Nino; however, I agree that no one knows for sure whether a Super El Nino will form by this winter (austral summer).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2014, 04:38:04 AM
While I have shown the attached image before (of sea level at Fort Point San Francisco, and the subsurface water temperatures at the Davenport mooring near Monterey Bay); I am reposting because I think that it is interested that figure 4 in Reply #415 indicates that the peak temperature anomaly in the 1997-98 EKW occurred offshore Ecuador in January 1998; while the water elevation offshore of Fort Point did not experience its peak due to the associated CTW until almost mid-February 1998, and while the SF king tides in 2015 occur in January; there are still relatively very high tide in early February.  Therefore if a Super occurs in 2014-2015 (as Bruce notes) it will be interesting to see when the CTW induce sea level rise occurs relative to the king tides.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on March 30, 2014, 12:23:04 PM
ASLR, I tried to look around for tide charts that went into spring of 2015, looking for king tides but got nowhere. I think looking for projections at Pittsberg or someplace close to Sacramento would be interesting. Silly question maybe but is the sea level chart you linked read in inches?   16 + inches at peak " flood." somewhere near Feb.1 , 1998.  Is that on top of what a tide chart would be showing  and how much storm surge might also be possible or is that already in the chart you showed?
I know Corp. Of Engineers must surely understand the risks but it surely isn't common knowledge.
February would more likely align with spring melt in the Sierra and that too probably comes sooner during the relative warm conditions of a El Nino. Spring floods also raise river flows and water levels upstream from the water diversion dams so the problem with storm surge+ extreme high tides+ CTW is it leaves nowhere for the water to go should the Sacramento and San Joaquin be at flood stage.
I know that is obvious to you but I thought I would state the obvious.
 For anyone out there not familiar with the Delta project you should think of it kinda like the dikes and levys the the Netherlands...there is a lot of farmland below the river levels already and if the levy's break it allows saltwater to flood farmland . Even if it is pumped back out after the flood subsides the salt will render the farmland useless. Maybe someone else can better describe how the delta project keeps the saltwater and freshwater separate now but shipping does occur above the diversion damns so there most also be locks for shipping but I shouldn't be exposing my ignorance. How the system works just isn't common knowledge to the people( water users ) dependent on it's functioning.   
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2014, 01:08:57 PM
Bruce,

(1)  The following link provides tide information for 2015, all along the West Coast, and the button named "San Francisco" I believe is for Fort Point; and yes the sea level data shown in the Fort Point figure is in inches, and it does not include either tides or storm surge.

http://www.protides.com/california/ (http://www.protides.com/california/)

(2) Regarding storm surge estimates for the USA you can get them from FEMA's FIRM program (see the following links):

https://msc.fema.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/FemaWelcomeView?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&langId=-1 (https://msc.fema.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/FemaWelcomeView?storeId=10001&catalogId=10001&langId=-1)

https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/?cid=Search_GoogleAdwords_FEMABrand_c_g_b_fema%20flood%20plain%20maps (https://www.floodsmart.gov/floodsmart/?cid=Search_GoogleAdwords_FEMABrand_c_g_b_fema%20flood%20plain%20maps)

(c) Information about the program (which does not include ship locks) for the California Delta can be found at the following links:

http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/ (http://baydeltaoffice.water.ca.gov/)

http://www.water.ca.gov/ (http://www.water.ca.gov/)
 
Unfortunately, I am traveling for this entire week and will not have time for many posts.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 30, 2014, 01:10:41 PM
With the Tropical Ocean Atmosphere (TAO) array of moored buoys falling into disarray, the linked Scripps article discusses: (a) NOAA's plan to service TAO by the end of 2014, and (b) two programs: TPOS and ARGO that will help to supplement the diminishing capability of TAO.  Extracts from the article are:

-  NOAA has announced that it will be able to service many of the buoys and expects most to be reporting by the end of 2014; however, prospects for continued servicing remain unclear.

- Tropical Pacific Ocean Observing System (TPOS) to provide critical data by 2020.

-  Scripps is adding 48 profiling floats to the global arsenal of the NOAA-funded Argo network to supplement missing TAO moorings. A vessel left Jan. 2 from San Diego to deploy them along the full length of the Pacific equator.  These floats measure temperature and salinity from the sea surface to 2,000 meters deep, and are dispersed throughout the world’s oceans to create a comprehensive view of ocean conditions that was impossible before 2000.
Along the equator they provide a more focused view of ocean variability than the small number of TAO moorings, and they extend this view to a much greater depth. And while moorings must be serviced every year, the floats will keep going for five years.  Another recent Scripps creation, the Spray glider, will be deployed along transects that follow the path of one line of TAO buoys. Other research organizations are also chipping in technology to avoid gaps in El Niño data caused by TAO’s demise. The TPOS of 2020 will likely include moorings, but these too will be new designs with longer life, and in balance with other elements of the modernized observing system.


http://www.sddt.com/Commentary/article.cfm?SourceCode=20140210tza&Commentary_ID=137&_t=Scripps+research+projects+monitor+sea+air#.Uzfy36Pn_IU (http://www.sddt.com/Commentary/article.cfm?SourceCode=20140210tza&Commentary_ID=137&_t=Scripps+research+projects+monitor+sea+air#.Uzfy36Pn_IU)

Again, I a traveling this week and thus I will not be posting as much.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 30, 2014, 05:29:34 PM


-  NOAA has announced that it will be able to service many of the buoys and expects most to be reporting by the end of 2014; however, prospects for continued servicing remain unclear.

Given that the Republican Party has introduced legislation in Congress that would require NOAA to focus on weather events at the expense of climate research, I doubt that NOAA will be given the funding to support these buoys.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2014, 05:51:25 AM
The SOI is continuing to fluctuate and has become more negative again and now is -12.3 (see the attached plot for March 31 2014 [Australian Time]):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 31, 2014, 05:56:56 AM
AbruptSLR,

Thanks for all your work on this. I was wondering what you were using to created the tropical prediction graphics for April 8 and 9?

The OISST is showing expanding areas of above normal SST in the central Pacific. Attached is the latest for March 29.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2014, 12:38:56 PM
A4R,

I am using the wunderground / wundermap at the following link:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0)

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2014, 12:43:44 PM
Attached is an April 9 2014 forecast per Wundermap of a tropical storm forecast to hit the Philippines:

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on March 31, 2014, 12:51:13 PM
For what it is worth, earlier in this thread I noted that El Nino events (particularly strong El Nino events) re-locates the ABSL (which is normally only active from about October to March) to blow wind and consequently Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; however, I would also like to note that both El Nino events and positive Antarctic Oscillation index (AAO or SAM) values promote the telecommunication of Tropical Pacific atmospheric energy to the Western Antarctic.  In this regard, see the attached AAO plots showing positive values, and the earth surface wind map showing wind blowing directly towards the ASE.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 31, 2014, 04:58:40 PM
The latest weekly outlook is now available http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

Look at those upper ocean heat anomalies grow!


Last week
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMjfxlNl.jpg&hash=157c719af06daaeac8dc1ab9a23a1cbc)


This week
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FkqpRQpg.jpg&hash=d5f124fa3efad33d2e1c44e434fcd24d)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 31, 2014, 06:49:32 PM
For what it is worth, earlier in this thread I noted that El Nino events (particularly strong El Nino events) re-locates the ABSL (which is normally only active from about October to March) to blow wind and consequently Circumpolar Deep Water, CDW, into the Amundsen Sea Embayment, ASE; however, I would also like to note that both El Nino events and positive Antarctic Oscillation index (AAO or SAM) values promote the telecommunication of Tropical Pacific atmospheric energy to the Western Antarctic.  In this regard, see the attached AAO plots showing positive values, and the earth surface wind map showing wind blowing directly towards the ASE.

This cannot be good news for the Achilles heel of the WAIS.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: SATire on March 31, 2014, 09:54:20 PM
it is starting to look like my estimate that the Nino3.4 index would exceed +0.5 by the first week in April may have been too conservative, as it is possible that that value could be exceeded by the end of this week. 
AbruptSLR, let me thank you for the variety of insights and the connections you gave helping me to understand some relationships of this topic. Now it seems that some of your predictions may be the case right now, since jaxa detects about +0.5C in Nino3 on 31.03. allready (see picture attached, source here: http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/elni2/elni2.cgi?lang=e (http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/elni2/elni2.cgi?lang=e) ).

Thank you for your posts.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 03:29:30 AM
SH,

Over the past year I have mixed in several posts in the Antarctic folder about the interaction between ENSO and the WAIS.

SATire,

Thank you for both your kind words and for the very early indication that the Nino3 (which should not be mixed-up with the Nino3.4) reached a value of +0.5 on March 31, 2014.

All,

The first attached image shows the 30-day moving average for SOI to April 1, 2014 which has become more negative and is now -12.8.  Furthermore, the second image indicates that the cloud cover near the equatorial dateline is once again increasing.  These could be fluctuations, or the could be the beginning of a long ramp-up to a strong El Nino.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 03:56:39 AM
Please compare the attached NOAA SST anomaly chart for March 31 2014, with the comparable chart that deep octopus posted for March 27 2014 in Reply #384.  This chart clearly shows: (a) the SST anomaly in the Equatorial Pacific is increasing rapidly and I expect a relatively high Nino3.4 index value when we get the next weekly report; and (b) the coastal trapped (Kelvin) wave (CTW) is strengthening off of the coast of Peru on a daily basis in this timeframe.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 04:26:41 AM
The first attached image from Cyclocane of the 48-hr forecast for the Tropical Pacific shows that the risk tropical storms is rapidly increasing (as compared to the past week).

The second and third images from the Albany University forecasts of vorticity and surface winds for April 7 and April 8, respectively; support the past Wunderground projections that a powerful tropical storm (typhoon) will be directed towards the Philippines in about one weeks time.

It appears that the Pacific typhoon season will likely start early this year.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 01, 2014, 05:35:38 AM
Yes, the sea surface starting to look very El Niño-ish now. Orange tints of warm water span the vast Pacific. It's now uniformly above average along the equator. This chart is five days from NOAA's weekly temperature readings (March 26th at +0.2 C), by the way, so the March 31 chart is more indicative of something close to +0.5 C.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: idunno on April 01, 2014, 11:59:36 AM
An aside:

I am more inclined to regard the Atlantic as the more significant ocean wrt the Arctic, as the Pacific/Arctic water interface is only 60 miles wide and 60 metres deep. OTOH, if the Arctic was ice-free, we could as well call in the North Atlantic. There is little or no underwater bathymetric reason to separate the two bodies of water.

All of which just gives me an excuse to again mention one of my idees fixees, the following graduate paper...

http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf (http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf)

...which found that, after examining a range of possible predictors of sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea in October, including ENSO, the best was the SST in the CARRIBEAN (?!?) in May (!?!).

I would guess that the current developing El Nino is likely to raise the SST of the Carribean in May?

Also, if anybody has the ability to calculate if Stone's prognoses also hold good for 2010-2013, I would be very interested.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 01, 2014, 06:13:49 PM
Sure looking like at least mid-sized Nino is coming, I'll throw in a guess of almost full Nino conditions by the end of september, then depending on size rising at least to November. 2015 early summer (I think there's a six month lag involved in the effects in most areas over 40 degrees latitude) could slash some temperature records all over the Northern Hemisphere.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 01, 2014, 09:17:36 PM
El Niño or not, this year is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record already. A preliminary look at Daily Composite data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tells me that this past March is going to be significant. The current NASA record is March 2002 with +0.90 C over 1951-1980, followed by 2010 at +0.88 C. I'm expecting 2014 to come in around the top five, and as high as 3rd place. So I roughly estimate a 1951-1980 anomaly of +0.65 to 0.75 C.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 01, 2014, 09:18:28 PM
Seems like we have a very interesting week ahead.. Two areas in the tropics close to equator with a current low possibility to develop into tropical cyclones.. The one in WPAC seems to be the one which have the best chance to intensify into a tropical cyclone.. ECMWF 12z run means bad news for Phillippinia...

The GFS doesn't give any better news and also develops the low into a TC..

If it develops into a tropical storm it will be named "Peipah"... In my ears it sounds like a bad name...

ASLR, do you have some valuable links to check daily change? I have only looked at NOAAs and BOMs updates and they are only for once a week...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 01, 2014, 09:50:05 PM
El Niño or not, this year is shaping up to be one of the hottest on record already. A preliminary look at Daily Composite data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis tells me that this past March is going to be significant. The current NASA record is March 2002 with +0.90 C over 1951-1980, followed by 2010 at +0.88 C. I'm expecting 2014 to come in around the top five, and as high as 3rd place. So I roughly estimate a 1951-1980 anomaly of +0.65 to 0.75 C.

I'd be surprised if we were that high. The (relatively) cold northern continents would result in a slight cool bias to the March values, given the general underestimation of Arctic warming and lack of coverage. We also have the lag time between ENSO and global temperatures, with the recent DJF having the lowest Niño 3.4 value since DJF 2012.
I'd have expected UAH to be near the top 3, but most others to be ranked marginally higher than February.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 10:07:53 PM
Lord Vader,

If you are looking for a current daily Nino3.4 reading, I have never found one, and the BoM and NOAA data is what I rely on.  However, the following Dutch site does provide daily Nino3.4 values that are about 10 to 12 days old (if you want to do analysis of daily variations/trends):

http://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/nino5_daily&STATION=NINO3.4&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere&NPERYEAR=366 (http://climexp.knmi.nl/getindices.cgi?WMO=NCEPData/nino5_daily&STATION=NINO3.4&TYPE=i&id=someone@somewhere&NPERYEAR=366)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 10:14:57 PM
The attached NASA Jason-2 satellite sea level data for March 22 2014, shows how big of a monster the EKW was about 10-days ago (see the following link for the source):

http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/ (http://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/science/elninopdo/latestdata/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 01, 2014, 10:21:46 PM
Revealing chart. Fascinatingly enough, the March 22nd chart indicates a more dramatic sea level rise than in November 2009, with "El Niño Picking Up Steam." If that was picking up steam, then we're about 7 months ahead of the 2009 event.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsealevel.jpl.nasa.gov%2Fimages%2Fostm%2Ffiles%2Fimages%2Fbrowse%2F20091101.jpg&hash=194e313d6aa0f6c3be7ff7cea8e508ef)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 01, 2014, 11:03:57 PM
Extract from article: "Icochea, however, does not accept the parallel with 2012. Although that year also saw similarly abnormally high temperatures in waters close to Australia, Icochea argues that in 2012 a core of cold water towards South America blocked the advance of El Nino, something that is not happening now.
Rather, the researcher says the event this year is developing similarly as it did in 1997-98 and, if the patterns of the event continue as now, El Nino will hit mostly northern Peru and Ecuador, with consequences on the fishing industry to play out by the end of the year."

http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/01/perus-anchovy-fishmeal-sector-set-for-strong-el-nino-effect-in-2014-expert-says/ (http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2014/04/01/perus-anchovy-fishmeal-sector-set-for-strong-el-nino-effect-in-2014-expert-says/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on April 01, 2014, 11:27:58 PM
the following graduate paper...http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf (http://edocs.nps.edu/npspubs/scholarly/theses/2010/Jun/10Jun_Stone.pdf) ...which found that, after examining a range of possible predictors of sea ice extent in the Beaufort Sea in October, including ENSO, the best was the SST in the CARRIBEAN (?!?) in May (!?!).

...if anybody has the ability to calculate if Stone's prognoses also hold good for 2010-2013, I would be very interested.

idunno :: I asked her on Twitter and Megan replied  (https://twitter.com/happymegwv/status/451082979897397249):

Quote
"I never verified as I lost access to the NSIDC dataset I was using when I graduated. I will let my professor (Dr. Tom Murphree) know and maybe he can get another student to verify and investigate the connection between Caribbean SSTs and Beaufort Sea SIC. thnx!"
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2014, 03:13:30 AM
The first two attached images are both from the Australian BoM issued April 2 2014.  The first image is of the SOI, which has become more negative with a value of -13.3.  The second image is of the average Nino3.4 index for the week ending March 30, which has increased to +0.27, which is below the threshold value of +0.5.

The third image is the 48-hr tropical storm forecast issued April 1, showing an increased risk of cyclone activity.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2014, 08:54:12 AM
While my previous post indicates that for the average of the week ending March 30 2014 the Central Tropical Pacific had not yet reached a provisional El Nino status (also I note here that the Walker Cell also has not yet transitioned into a provisional El Nino condition), probably because there have not been any Westerly Wind Blasts, WWBs, for over a week; nevertheless, the trade winds are currently suppressed (supported by the relatively negative SOI value of -13.3) and the following WunderMap forecasts, for April 4, 5, 6, and 7, respectively, indicate that there is a strong chance of WWBs occurring in the Western Equatorial Pacific starting within a few days.   Therefore, there is a strong likelihood that a provisional El Nino status will be reached by either the end of the first week in April or else by mid-April:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 02, 2014, 09:00:08 AM
The attached earth surface wind map for the morning of April 2 2014 supports my prior statement that the Equatorial Pacific trade winds are suppressed, but that the Walker Cell has not yet transitioned into a full El Nino condition yet (as there are no substantial westerlies in the Western Equatorial Pacific):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: tombond on April 02, 2014, 02:30:26 PM
Interesting article on forecasting El Nino in 2014,  Climate scientists and forecasters are on high alert as the system is primed.  We just need to wait to see if the pool of warm water continues eastwards across the Pacific over the next few months.

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972 (http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: idunno on April 02, 2014, 06:05:07 PM
A further  aside;

@David sanger

"idunno :: I asked her on Twitter and Megan replied : "

That's fantastic news. Thank you very much. (I have had a real bee in my bonnet over this extraordinary finding since stumbling over it a couple of years ago.)

I have posted a longer reaction over on the ASIB on the latest SEARCH thread, where it is, unusually for me, bang on topic. If you do happen to cross Megan again, (I don't tweet), (hint) you might also mention that an awful lot of clever people are now trying to find a good predictor of Autumn SIE, and none of them appear to be 1. using her method, 2. getting the right answer.

I'd suggest a SEARCH contribution.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on April 02, 2014, 08:50:58 PM
I would at this point only put the odds of a super-nino (>2.0C ONI) at 10 or 20%. There have been many moderate and strong El Ninos in the last 100 years and only 3 (72-73, 82-83 and 97-98) were 'super' El Ninos.

The CPC may be a little slow and conservative, but there's a reason they only give a 50% chance of an El Nino at all. The subsurface anomalies last year were impressive as well. Not as impressive as this year (roughly half) but we didn't get any El Nino at all (not even close).

I would at this point give an 80-90% chance of El Nino, 50-60% chance of moderate, 20-30% chance of strong, and 10-20% chance of 'super.'
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 12:38:10 AM
Cyclocane issued the following tropical storm warning for the Northwest Pacific, issued on April 2, 2014 (see also the first attached tropical storm warning image):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 1.5N
150.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 1.9N 148.1E, APPROXIMATELY 724 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
A 021658Z 37 GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED
LLCC, BUT RECENTLY THE EIR INDICATES THAT THE SYMMETRY IS IMPROVING.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE AREA ARE FAVORABLE AS
WELL. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE
ISLAND OF PALAU AS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 022000) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. DUE TO THE INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."


The second attached earth surface wind map for April 2 2014 shows the tropical storm/cycles forming.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 01:21:32 AM
I thought that some people would like to see BoM's Nino3 and Nino4 indices plots through the week ending March 30 2014, which are provided as attachments 1 & 2, respectively:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 02:08:15 AM
As today WunderMap increased the intensity of the tropical storm that it is forecasting around 2N and west of 140E, I am posting forecasts for April 5, 6, 8 and 9 (note on April 9th the tropical storm (typhoon) is estimated to make landfall in the Philippines:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 05:53:04 AM
The attached BoM image is of the 30-day moving average for the SOI through April 3 2014 and has a value of -13.2 which indicates that this index is strong but still fluctuating:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 03:53:41 PM
The Cyclocane tropical storm warning (see quote below) for the Western North Pacific area now recognizes the formation of a tropical depression (TD05W) near 1.8N & 147.7E
 
Quote: "WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 030000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 1.8N 147.7E, APPROXIMATELY 861 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, AND
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS."

The attached earth surface wind map for the morning of April 3 2014 shows that TD05W is strengthening & could become a tropical storm before too long.  Also note that this image shows that the trade winds are completely absent in the equatorial zone west of the date line:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 03, 2014, 04:19:49 PM
Upwelling water east of the Galapagos continues for now, but models of the Niño 2 region say this, too, should warm up this month. The upwelling of the Humboldt Current is showing clear signs of stress as warm water rushes in.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.4.3.2014.gif&hash=c172cad1bc9f08b0ce3058675cb148ac)

The Pacific basin WWV is now at its highest point, by far, since 1997. I take this to be a warning sign of reciprocating Niño 3.4 anomalies to come, but, as with every other metric, by no means is a crystal ball.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Ftao%2Felnino%2Fwwv%2Fgif%2Fwwv_nino.gif&hash=c7921ec1a248ec131ea2dccd1b662797)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 03, 2014, 04:55:39 PM
The attached NOAA chart updated to March 26 2014, helps to illustrate why it should be easier to forecast a strong El Nino after May based on the Nino3.4 index (see the middle panel of the attached image of SSTs (both average and observed) in different areas), because after May the climatological average water temperatures in this area should be dropping naturally; however, if an El Nino condition is sustainable these water temperatures should be increasing; which would result in a relatively rapid increase in the Nino3.4 index values through the summer of 2014:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: opensheart on April 03, 2014, 07:32:45 PM
According to some maps of effects of El Nino, Cincinnati Ohio USA usually gets more rain as the jet stream moves north over the easter half of the US.   

Right now, here in Cincinnati, we are in the middle of a @30 hour rain event.   Wave after wave of light, moderate and heavy rain.

A couple days ago, it was dry enough here to have a grass fire along the expressway.  Now we have flood watches.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 01:27:22 AM
According to the linked article and the attached image from: www.StormVistaWxmodels.com (http://www.StormVistaWxmodels.com)

The Nino3.4 index took a rapid upturn on the morning of April 2 2014 and is now above +0.5 (on a daily basis, not a weekly averaged basis):

http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/el-nio-rolling-back-around_2-ar42582 (http://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/el-nio-rolling-back-around_2-ar42582)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 01:36:39 AM
According to the linked April 2nd article, El Nino weather conditions may already be occurring in Indonesia:

http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/93479/el-nino-potentially-occurs-in-indonesia-agency (http://www.antaranews.com/en/news/93479/el-nino-potentially-occurs-in-indonesia-agency)

Based on the early start of our current event, and on the 1997-98 El Nino behavior, I imagine that that Nino3.4 index will equal or exceed a value of +2.0 before the end of August 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 01:46:41 AM
According to the April 4 editorial quote from the following link, some El Nino experts are warning of a "monster" El Nino in 2014-15:

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=/data/editorial/2014/April/editorial_April7.xml&section=editorial (http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=/data/editorial/2014/April/editorial_April7.xml&section=editorial)

"Some have warned that the ‘monster’ El Nino this year could be more powerful than the one that occurred in 1997-98; if the prognostication proves to be right, 2015 can turn out to be the warmest year in living memory. The massive release of thermal energy in the Pacific Ocean during an El Nino event can have a devastating impact on global weather patterns, even upsetting the south-west monsoon, on which the lives of millions of farmers is dependent."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 02:08:12 AM
According to the UN (see link), by the end of March 2014 worldwide food prices had reached there highest level in 10 months, partially due to concerns that a strong El Nino will have a negative impact on average food production worldwide:

http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=47499&Cr=&Cr1=#.Uz33NKPn_IU (http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=47499&Cr=&Cr1=#.Uz33NKPn_IU)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 02:47:19 AM
The attached earth wind map at 250hPa for April 3 2014 indicates to me that a weak El Nino condition may be beginning for the Walker Cell:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 02:54:23 AM
The following link takes you straight to the most recently posted daily Nino3.4 provided by the Dutch knmi:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat (http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat)

The following list presents the daily Nino3.4 index values from March 12 to March 26 2014:
2014  3 12    -0.40
2014  3 13    -0.33
2014  3 14    -0.26
2014  3 15    -0.19
2014  3 16    -0.11
2014  3 17    -0.04
2014  3 18     0.03
2014  3 19     0.10
2014  3 20     0.11
2014  3 21     0.13
2014  3 22     0.14
2014  3 23     0.16
2014  3 24     0.17
2014  3 25     0.19
2014  3 26     0.20
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 04, 2014, 03:00:10 AM
The attached image presents the 30-day moving average SOI value through April 4 2014 (Sydney time), has a value of -11.9; which is more positive than yesterday's value of -13.2, but which is still sufficiently negative to be reinforcing the development of an El Nino event:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on April 04, 2014, 05:24:19 AM
The following link takes you straight to the most recently posted daily Nino3.4 provided by the Dutch knmi:

http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat (http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/inino5_daily.dat)


Actually they seem to be the NOAA OISST.v2 weekly numbers (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for) interpolated.

Quote
"# NINO index # 5 (5=3.4) from <a href="http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/data/indices/">CPC</a>
# interpolated from weekly to daily values
# SSTa [Celsius]"
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: idunno on April 04, 2014, 01:54:50 PM
Robertscribbler on this topic...

http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/el-nino-update-monster-kelvin-wave-continues-to-emerge-and-intensify/#comments (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/04/02/el-nino-update-monster-kelvin-wave-continues-to-emerge-and-intensify/#comments)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 04, 2014, 03:53:59 PM
Alternative, daily OISST chart for April 3rd.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww1.ncdc.noaa.gov%2Fpub%2Fdata%2Foisst%2Fnavy-anom-b-20140403.gif&hash=d090b70a01ec69f3838f4adb48d7fc62)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 04, 2014, 04:36:40 PM
March 29th subsurface graph of the Kelvin wave. The 25 C isotherm has sagged considerably. Normally, these isotherms would have a gentle upward slope from the western Pacific towards the eastern Pacific. Because of how warm the Kelvin wave is, the slope of the isotherm is actually inverted. If we have a broadly flat isotherm along the Pacific basin, it will be the clearest signal yet of an El Niño, since the mixing layer/upwelling is suppressed. The slope is flattening in the eastern Pacific, but a full transformation will take a few months. The flatness is what also causes these large spikes in the ocean heat content and warm water volume.

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-c5I88BxJmTI/Uz7CDG17USI/AAAAAAAAAac/BJ0ZbUlSaSE/w502-h649-no/wkteq_xz.gif)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 04, 2014, 04:42:20 PM
Alternative, daily OISST chart for April 3rd.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww1.ncdc.noaa.gov%2Fpub%2Fdata%2Foisst%2Fnavy-anom-b-20140403.gif&hash=d090b70a01ec69f3838f4adb48d7fc62)

Being somewhat colorblind, and having a very hard discerning differences in light shades of yellow, I really detest that particular map. 

This is the map I always reference, as it updates daily and is easy to differentiate the colors:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fweather.unisys.com%2Fsurface%2Fsst_anom.gif&hash=5cf96dd416f2f3ac4f0a798ded10dcf4)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 04, 2014, 05:01:31 PM
The equatorial upper ocean heat anomaly continues to grow, from 1.3 to 1.5 and now 1.6C over the last 3 updates, lots of adjustments to that Y axis required.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMjfxlNl.jpg&hash=157c719af06daaeac8dc1ab9a23a1cbc)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FkqpRQpg.jpg&hash=d5f124fa3efad33d2e1c44e434fcd24d)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F5amQwoy.gif%3F1&hash=2af11e04bd6f630fae0415177de90050)


ChasingIce,
I personally prefer the new version of the unisys map. I find the one you use makes things look cooler than reality by using light blue for average temperatures. Though if yellow is an issue with you, this won't be any better!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIgDE92S.gif&hash=915dfc90148c7fb81d69593f8e90c6b4)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 04, 2014, 05:07:38 PM
I can appreciate the difficulty to read the shades of color. My favorite reason for ever referring to the OISST charts is simply because they have frequent (daily!) updates. It interpolates to 1/4 of a degree, so its highly specific. The problem is that it makes it too busy and harder on the eyes. If they hired a few artists at NOAA to clean it up and make the colors more aesthetically apealing, it would be more useful.

Personally, above all, I much prefer the OSPO anomaly charts that use simple blue/yellow contrasts, which I showed above in a post from yesterday. I will say, in the chart you show (Unisys?), I wish they set the intervals evenly. Having one tick mark begin at -0.5 C on the negative side and +1.0 C on the positive side is a bit disorienting. Just goes to show that there's an untapped demand for artists out there in the science community.

EDIT: I like the chart BFTV has shown. Exactly the kinds of contrasts that are easy on the eyes.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 04, 2014, 07:21:08 PM
Ocean heat content from the graphic BFTV posted is 1.60 C. This is the highest since November 2009, which was also the peak of 1.75 C during that cycle. So a continuation of this trend will mean an easy target to beat. I am pretty confident we will achieve at least moderate El Niño status by summer. The models are still pointing towards a strong El Niño by fall (between 1.5 and 2.0 C on the ONI).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 04, 2014, 07:52:53 PM
Another international news roundup in the last week. El Niño fever is beginning to ascend.

Baltimore Sun, 4/4/2014, El Niño showing signs of further development

Quote
El Niño has shown signs of further development since forecasters issued a watch for the global climate pattern a month ago.

Observations of Pacific Ocean surface temperatures along the equator show warm water being pushed deeper, according to the Weather Underground's Jeff Masters. Forecasts for surface temperature anomalies have grown by half a degree over the past month when looking ahead to the summer and fall months.

According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, ensemble models of Pacific Ocean temperatures show El Niño starting some time by June.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-el-nio-showing-signs-of-further-development-20140404,0,5693736.story (http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/weather-blog/bal-wx-el-nio-showing-signs-of-further-development-20140404,0,5693736.story)


Airang News, 4/4/2014, El Niño to bring heavy snow to Korea this winter: KMA

Quote
Spring has just arrived in Korea, but weather forecasters here are already looking ahead to next winter and what they see is snow and a lot of it. The Korea Meteorological Administration says the country should brace for heavy snowstorms this winter as El Nino conditions are likely to develop.

http://www.arirang.co.kr/news/News_View.asp?nseq=160325 (http://www.arirang.co.kr/news/News_View.asp?nseq=160325)


Queensland Country Life, 4/4/2014, El Niño threat lingers

Quote
Long-term climate outlooks for Queensland provide little hope for drought-breaking rains, with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropping in March to its lowest value in four years.

Dr Jeff Sabburg, senior climate liaison officer with the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) in Brisbane, said there was an increased chance of an El Nino event from winter.

"This is often but not always associated with below average rainfall during the second half of the year," Dr Sabburg said.

http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/general/news/el-nino-threat-lingers/2694024.aspx (http://www.queenslandcountrylife.com.au/news/agriculture/general/news/el-nino-threat-lingers/2694024.aspx)


Michael Ventrice has also posted another guest article to Wunderground, which was brought to my attention from the Baltimore Sun article. Emphasis mine.
Quote
To begin, we are currently observing what looks to be the strongest downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave event since satellite records began in the 1970s. This still needs to be verified in reanalysis, but a large swath of 6°C (11°F) ocean temperature anomalies at a depth of 100 - 200 meters (Figure 1) clearly illustrates the significance of this event.

....

An exceptionally strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is currently propagating across the equatorial Indian Ocean. IMPORTANT: An atmospheric CCKW is DIFFERENT than an oceanic Kelvin wave since atmospheric CCKWs are stratospheric waves in the *atmosphere* that are confined to just the equatorial band. Thus we cannot experience a CCKW passage in North America. CCKWs often couple with thunderstorm activity within the troposphere in the tropics.

The forecast calls for this Indian Ocean CCKW to push across the Date Line during mid-April. This would be a time when we might see another period of westerly winds develop across the equatorial Central Pacific--favorable atmospheric conditions for a full-basin El Niño to emerge. The anticipated westerly wind burst in mid-April may be composed of individual tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical waves intruding the tropics.

In addition to the CCKW itself, there are higher than average probabilities of another developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to emerge over the West Pacific following the passage of this strong CCKW, in mid-to-late April.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658)

Lots of dry kindling is being tossed on this erupting El Niño bonfire.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 04, 2014, 08:14:33 PM
Ocean heat content from the graphic BFTV posted is 1.60 C. This is the highest since November 2009, which was also the peak of 1.75 C during that cycle. So a continuation of this trend will mean an easy target to beat. I am pretty confident we will achieve at least moderate El Niño status by summer. The models are still pointing towards a strong El Niño by fall (between 1.5 and 2.0 C on the ONI).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt)

To add to that, the February to March monthly heat content increase for 180 to 100W was the largest on record at +1.21C, beating the March to April 1983 increase by 0.03C.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 02:06:15 AM
First, I love the Dr Michael Ventrice post on the WunderBlog, and I agree that the potential CCKW/MJO interaction could be kindling to the El Nino bonfire.


Second, the following phys. org link includes the following quote; which indicates to me that global warming could accelerate more than expected towards the end of the century:

http://phys.org/news/2014-04-permanent-el-nino-scientists-sayand.html (http://phys.org/news/2014-04-permanent-el-nino-scientists-sayand.html)

"There's good news and bad news about future global warming," said Mark Pagani, professor of geology and geophysics at Yale and an author of the research, published April 4 in the journal Science.
"The good news is that global warming does not drive the Pacific Ocean into a permanent El Niño-like condition with all the other regional climate impacts that come with that. The bad news is that the tropics will warm as we continue to add greenhouse gases to the atmosphere—and the recent past was probably much warmer than generally assumed."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 02:24:42 AM
The attached Albany U vorticity & wind forecast to April 12 2014 shows that a series of Western Equatorial Pacific tropical disturbances and cyclones will result a new WWB that could set the stage for the possible CCKW/MJO interaction to fuel a series of typhoons and cyclones in the Western Equatorial Pacific :
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 02:29:54 AM
The attached SOI for April 5 2014 shows that the 30-day moving average has again become less negative and is now -11.2
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 05, 2014, 04:42:31 AM

ChasingIce,
I personally prefer the new version of the unisys map. I find the one you use makes things look cooler than reality by using light blue for average temperatures. Though if yellow is an issue with you, this won't be any better!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIgDE92S.gif&hash=915dfc90148c7fb81d69593f8e90c6b4)

My wife says that one is easy to discern too....  I see exactly 2 different colors from average to hot.  Its all yellow or orange, and I cannot tell the difference whatsoever between 0 and +1.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 04:18:36 PM
The linked article (with a free access pdf) adds further elaborations on the atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) phenomenon that Dr Michael Ventrice briefly discussed in his April 4th WunderBlog post.  This article clearly links states that an Eastern Pacific El Nino event (as we have now) strengthens a CCKW (as will reach the Eastern Equatorial Pacific by mid-April); and that a strong CCKW strengthens an El Nino by generating WWBs (as was observed to occur during the 1997-98 El Nino).  We should all be aware that this weather-climate interaction will certainly happen this year, but is not currently considered in the NOAA forecasts.  This is one more piece of evidence supporting my belief that the Nino3.4 index could equal or exceed a value of +2.0 by the end of August:

Wang Hui, Pan Yutong, Kumar Arun, et al., (2012), "Modulation of convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity in the tropical Pacific by ENSO", Acta Meteor. Sinica, 27, doi: 10.1007/s13351-013-0306-5.

http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmsjournal.net%2Fqxxb_en%2Fch%2Freader%2Fcreate_pdf.aspx%3Ffile_no%3D20140166%26year_id%3D2013%26quarter_id%3D3%26falg%3D1&ei=HQtAU-e7Laau4ATKooDACA&usg=AFQjCNH0P3OWWlZlu__7AvjSQPCpxuHZRQ&bvm=bv.64125504,d.bGE (http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=4&ved=0CEIQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cmsjournal.net%2Fqxxb_en%2Fch%2Freader%2Fcreate_pdf.aspx%3Ffile_no%3D20140166%26year_id%3D2013%26quarter_id%3D3%26falg%3D1&ei=HQtAU-e7Laau4ATKooDACA&usg=AFQjCNH0P3OWWlZlu__7AvjSQPCpxuHZRQ&bvm=bv.64125504,d.bGE)

Abstract: "The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the convectively coupled Kelvin waves over the tropical Pacific is investigated by comparing the Kelvin wave activity in the eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño, central Pacific (CP) El Niño, and La Niña years, respectively, to 30-yr (1982–2011) mean statistics. The convectively coupled Kelvin waves in this study are represented by the two leading modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of 2–25 day band-pass filtered daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), with the estimated zonal wavenumber of 3 or 4, period of 8 days, and eastward propagating speed of about 17 m s-150 . The most significant impact of ENSO on the Kelvin wave activity is the intensification of the Kelvin waves during the EP El Niños.  The impact of La Niña on the reduction of the Kelvin wave intensity is relatively weaker, reflecting the nonlinearity of tropical deep convection and the associated Kelvin waves in response to ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The impact of the CP El Niño on the Kelvin waves is less significant due to relatively weaker SST anomalies and smaller spatial coverage. ENSO may also alter the frequency, wavelength, and phase speed of the Kelvin waves. This work demonstrates that low-frequency ENSO SST anomalies modulate high-frequency tropical disturbances, an example of weather–climate linkage."

Extract/Conclusion:  "On the other hand, the Kelvin wave may not only respond but also feedback to the SST anomalies. For example, surface westerly wind bursts are known to play an important
role in triggering the 1997/98 El Nino (McPhaden, 427 1999). Strong surface westerly wind anomalies do exist following the anomalous deep convection associated with the Kelvin waves (e.g., Straub and Kiladis, 2002; Wang and Fu, 2007). How the wind anomalies associated with the Kelvin waves might affect SST could be an interesting topic for future work."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 04:35:44 PM
The first link provides information related to both CCKWs (also called convectively coupled equatorial waves, or CCEWs), and MJOs and both of their influences on WWBs.  This discussion makes it eminently clear how a CCKW arriving in mid-April, followed by a MJO arriving in late-April, to the Eastern Equatorial Pacific would clearly fuel a rash of tropical storms/cyclones that would generate WWBs that would likely kick our current weak El Nino into at least a moderate category:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/equatorial-wave-background/equatorial-wave-theory/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/equatorial-wave-background/equatorial-wave-theory/)

The second link clearly shows that the Nino3.4 is above +0.5 as of April 5 and should continue to rise through June:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/)

The third link (and attached image) clearly should one forecast of the MJO arriving in the Eastern Tropical Pacific by late April:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 05, 2014, 04:39:42 PM
For clarity, I decided to provide the Kyle MacRitchie SST indices graph (updated on April 5 2014) from the second link in my prior post.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 03:12:59 AM
The following is a brief summary of selected key reasons/reasoning that support the case that a Super El Nino (with a Nino3.4 of between +2.0 and +3.0) is likely to peak sometime between November 2014 & February 2015:

Short-term considerations (as of April 5 2014):
•   The following link confirms that for the week ending April 5, the weekly Nino3.4 is now above the threshold value of +0.5 for a provisional weak El Nino, and that ensemble models project this index value will continue to increase at least until though summer (austral winter), see the first attached image of the POAMA monthly mean Nino34 forecast issued on April 3 2014.  This is important because the development of an El Nino condition (even if provisional/weak) supports the development of positive feedback mechanisms, and the feedback mechanisms are starting about two to three weeks earlier in 2014 than in 1997:
http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/)
•   The SOI influence is currently providing positive feedback by suppressing the Equatorial Pacific trade winds, even though it is still fluctuating and has a value of -10.5 on April 5 2014 (Sydney Time), see the second attached image.
•   Currently, the Western Equatorial Pacific is exhibiting above average convective conditions that are supporting the current (and near-term) development of tropical/depressions/storms/cyclones that are contributing to WWBs in the Western Equatorial Pacific.
•   Dr Michael Ventrice states in the following link: "An exceptionally strong atmospheric convectively coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is currently propagating across the equatorial Indian Ocean. … The forecast calls for this Indian Ocean CCKW to push across the Date Line during mid-April. This would be a time when we might see another period of westerly winds develop across the equatorial Central Pacific--favorable atmospheric conditions for a full-basin El Niño to emerge. The anticipated westerly wind burst in mid-April may be composed of individual tropical cyclones, or extra-tropical waves intruding the tropics.

In addition to the CCKW itself, there are higher than average probabilities of another developing Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) to emerge over the West Pacific following the passage of this strong CCKW, in mid-to-late April. …. Once the CCKW passes across Africa to over the Indian Ocean, we often observe a developing MJO event over the Indian Ocean that then propagates eastward across the Pacific region thereafter. There are increased chances of a similar scenario to play out over the next few weeks."" Also, see the attached third image of the CCKW in the Indian Ocean as of April 2nd (updated daily).  Also, note that a MJO event near the data line is even more effective at generating conditions that support WWBs below MJOs travel more slowly than CCKWs.  Also, note that a similar condition in 1997 lead to strong WWBs that rapidly strengthened that developing El Nino.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658 (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html?entrynum=2658)

•   Professor Roundy of the Albany University, NY, has estimated that if El Nino conditions are established (note that even though the Nino3.4 index is above +0.5, a full El Nino condition has not yet been established as the Walker Cell has not flipped states yet; however, there are preliminary indications that it could flip before the end of April), then there will be about an 80% chance of a strong El Nino this year.
•   A coastal-trapped Kelvin wave, CTW, has been observed off the coast of Peru; which means that the typical cold water input from the Humboldt Current into the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, is currently below normal.
•   The current Equatorial Kelvin Wave, EKW, is the largest/strongest ever observed during the modern era and it has reached South America and is in the process of surfacing.
•   The cloud cover near the equatorial date line is fluctuating about a relatively high level, which increases the chances that the Walker Cell could flip to an El Nino condition sooner, rather than later.
•   Both the Nino 3 + 4 indices are relatively high for this time of year.
•   The Equatorial Pacific thermocline is well into the process of changing to an El Nino condition.

Long-term considerations:
•   Both the PDO, and the IPO, indices are positive and are trending to more positive values.
•   Super Typhoons are more likely to occur (resulting in more numerous events) during a strong El Nino event because in El Nino years the storm tracks occur closer to the equator and farther eastward (than during neutral or La Nina conditions), and thus the storms have more opportunity to reach higher intensities as they travel longer distances over the warm tropical ocean, while curving northward towards high targets with high economic value in Japan, Korea and Northern China.
•   Due to the more southeasterly locations for the locations of genesis of typhoons during strong El Nino conditions; the westerly wind bursts, WWBs, associated with these geneses provide a strong positive feedback to strength the El Nino event.
•   The closer that we get to the peak typhoon (tropical cyclone/storm) activity season (July-October), the more likely we are to get positive WWB feedback from tropical storms for strengthening the current fledgling El Nino; which is one of the reasons (together with the projected coming of the MJO in the Pacific) that I am concerned about a major typhoon occurring in April (similar to Super Typhoon Isa) that could kick our current El Nino into a trend leading to the Super category.
•   Both the WWV (warm water volume) and the volume of warm water in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are at historical highs for the satellite era.
•   The forecasts indicate the possibility of a positive IOD later this Fall (austral Spring); which could boost a moderate El Nino into a Super category.

Theoretical considerations:
•   It has been estimated that strong El Ninos will be (have become) more frequent with increasing global warming, and global warming has continued unabated since the last Super El Nino in 1997-98.
•   ENSO is a chaotic cyclic phenomena with strange attractors (that the ensemble models cannot fully represent), and historically Eastern Pacific Super El Ninos roughly occur every 15 to 25 years.
•   The following linked reference confirms that most current ENSO projection models treat westerly wind bursts, WWBs, as random (stochastic) forcing events; however, particularly for strong El Nino events this paper indicates that there is a SST-WWB feedback loop where a strong Equatorial Kelvin wave, EKW, creates more WWBs than normal which then strengthens the EKW (as we have seen this year).  Furthermore, WWB's are most likely during the period from November through to April; and therefore, April may well experience an increase in the number and severity of tropical storms (and possibly typhoons), that together with the CCKW that is projected to reach the date line by mid-April and the MJO that is projected to reach the Central Equatorial Pacific by late April (or possibly not); these timing considerations could kick the current fledgling El Nino event into high gear:

Geoffrey Gebbie • Eli Tziperman, (2008), "Incorporating a semi-stochastic model of ocean-modulated westerly wind bursts into an ENSO prediction model", Theor Appl Climatol., DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0069-6

https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089 (https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=100084&pt=2&p=119089)

•   El Nino events are typically more severe than are La Nina events, which is called ENSO Asymmetry, and as the linked reference cites, the current CMIP5 models cannot capture this fact, and thus and ensemble El Nino strength projection must be somewhat underestimating the possible future El Nino strength, most likely because these models cannot properly account for full atmospheric positive reinforcing such as from WWBs:

Tao Zhang and De-Zheng Sun (2014), "ENSO Asymmetry in CMIP5 Models", Journal of Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00454.1)

Key extract: "The study suggests that the underestimate of ENSO asymmetry in the CMIP5 coupled models is at least in part of atmospheric origin."

•   Sherwood et al 2014 state that the influence of convective mixing (down-drafting) dehydrates the cloud cover near the equator both north of 5N and south of 5S, increases with increasing humidity (see also Reply #161), thus as a Super El Nino will clearly increase the humid boundary layer along the Equatorial Pacific; it is probable that a Super El Nino will result in greater solar irradiance near the Equatorial Pacific, both north of 5N and south of 5S; which should result in more atmospheric convection that could contribute to WWBs.

Considerations related to "process-based" El Nino model projections:
•   Current process-based El Nino computer model projections, are probably incapable of projecting Nino3.4 ensemble mean values greater than +2.0; and thus are incapable of projecting Super El Ninos (primarily due to ensemble models cannot currently adequately forecast WWBs and other positive atmospheric input, and thus underestimate both the timing and the strength of El Ninos).
•   "Official" El Nino projections are typically out-of-date and do not represent the most current information available.
•   Process-based projections tend to be "Frequentist" rather than "Bayesianist" thus they typically have trouble projecting "fat-tailed" events (such as Super El Ninos).
•   Frequently users of process-based projections prefer to ignore all the caveats and uncertainties (& confidence levels) associated with these projections, and to assume that they are entitled to stationary rather than non-stationary conditions.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 03:33:25 AM
Cyclocane has issued the following tropical storm forecast valid through end of today, and the first attached image (associated with this forecast) shows the location of TS 05W (Peipah) and TC 23P (Twentythree) (this image also shows the location of the CCKW heading east out of the Equatorial Indian Ocean):

Forecast:
"Northwest Pacific Ocean
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 050000Z, TROPICAL STORM 05W (PEIPAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR
4.3N 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOROR, AND HAD
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 050300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
South Pacific Ocean
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 041800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (TWENTYTHREE) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 687 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS,
AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS."

The second image is of the earth surface wind map for April 5 2014, clearly showing the current locations of Tropical Storm Peipah and Tropical Cyclone Twentythree.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 03:38:49 AM
The attached satellite image of the Western Pacific on April 6 2014 clearly shows: (a) TS 05W (Peipah), (b) TC 23P (Twentythree); and (c) the increasing cloud cover near the Equatorial Date Line.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 03:58:36 AM
The following linked article from Reporting Climate Science for April 4 2014, indicates that: "Recent research results show that an atmospheric hole over the tropical West Pacific is reinforcing ozone depletion in the polar regions and could have a significant influence on the climate of the Earth."  I wonder how the ENSO influences this phenomena.

http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/researchers-find-new-phenomenon-in-atmosphere.html (http://www.reportingclimatescience.com/news-stories/article/researchers-find-new-phenomenon-in-atmosphere.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 06, 2014, 12:09:38 PM
Quite a change in little over 2 months

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F7tjkJkX.gif&hash=aea493e78b21315d326ad7d6dd72015f)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fjtyyu9T.gif&hash=1f3595f164de76a44c4c1b49c8837e2f)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on April 06, 2014, 12:28:05 PM
7 out of 8 of the recent models in blue are heading to over 2!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Sea.gif&hash=3ba1ae7533e10661c1998f089a740ad3)

Only 2 models not reaching +1
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 01:48:06 PM
While the latest CFSv2 Nino3.4 forecast (on April 6 2014) that crandles just posted may seem very bullish for a Super El Nino by the end of 2014, for the months of April & May even the blue lines in the CFSv2 Nino3.4 forecast are not to dynamic, and thus it probably does not fully take into account the probable arrival of the CCKW by mid-April and the likely arrival of the MJO by late April (or the beginning of May), near the Date Line.

The first attached image by Albany U vorticity & wind forecast to April 13 2014, shows an increasing development of WWBs in the Western Equatorial Pacific.

The second attached image form the Cyclocane main forecast map issued on April 6 2014, shows both TS 05W and TC 23P intensifying in the coming days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 06, 2014, 03:23:12 PM
ASLR, as you surely have noted there is also a minor likelihood for another TC to develop in the GFS extended forecast +180 hours. that would almost for sure increase the WWB.. ECMWF is hinting the possibility of another TC in WPAC around that time. But TC forecasts that far in time are always very tricky. I must say that I was disappointed about how bad Peipah evolved. I would have thought it to become at least a strong tropical storm but I'm glad for the people there who doesn't have to face another destructive hurricane just 4 months after Haiyan...

It will be very interesting to see tomorrows update from NOAA as well as BoMs update at tuesday! The big questions then are if:

1) how has the extremely warm pool of water eveolved in the Pacific?

2) have the pool climbed closer to the surface?

3) what are the Niño-indexes?

4) what are the different forecast models saying now compared to last month?

5) What are the other indexes like SOI, OLR etc looking?

And, of course we'll also look closely if there are any more hints of more TC's in WPAC :)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 07:29:15 PM
Lord Vader,

It is good to note that the GFS extended forecast +180 hours closely matches the Albany U. +180 hour forecast for April 13 that I posted in Reply #493, that another TS will occur to contribute to meaningful WWBs in that timeframe.  Personally, it is my opinion that the CCKW will generate a number of medium intensity TS/TC events between April 13 and circa April 20; and then if/when the MJO enters the Western Equatorial Pacific we may see larger cyclones between April 20 and May 20, that could conceivably grow as large as Super Typhoon Isa in April of 1997 that kicked that El Nino on a path to exceeding a Nino3.4 value of +2.0 during August of 1997.

Furthermore, I would like to note that when talking about "new and improved" GCM projections that indicate that the frequency of major (super) El Ninos will increase with increasing global warming, the following linked article by Tollefson (January 2014) makes the following key statement:
"… in simulations with full climate models, which factor in the suite of atmospheric and oceanic interactions beyond the equatorial Pacific.  These tend to reveal a trend towards more El Niño-like conditions as a result of global warming. The difference seems to lie, in part, in how warming influences evaporation in areas of the Pacific, according to Trenberth. He says the models suggest that global warming has a greater impact on temperatures in the relatively cool east, because the increase in evaporation adds water vapour to the atmosphere there and enhances atmospheric warming; this effect is weaker in the warmer western Pacific, where the air is already saturated with moisture."

Jeff Tollefson; (2014)"Climate change: The case of the missing heat - Sixteen years into the mysterious ‘global-warming hiatus’, scientists are piecing together an explanation", Nature, Volume: 505, Pages: 276–278, Date published: (16 January 2014), doi:10.1038/505276a

http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525 (http://www.nature.com/news/climate-change-the-case-of-the-missing-heat-1.14525)

Clearly, an increase in evaporation in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific would contribute to an increased probability of a strongly negative SOI as we have seen for the past month; which then suppresses the trade winds and increases the probability of El Nino events, which further increase evaporation in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific thus providing more fuel to grow a major (super) El Nino event.

Also, in a follow-up article (see reference and link below), Tollefson (April 2014); points out the El Nino forecasters are still struggling to update their models in order to better incorporate the physics of a chaotic global ENSO phenomena with strange attractors (which requires very powerful computers and incremental improvements to software based on field observations):

Jeff Tollefson, (2014), "El Niño tests forecasters - As hints emerge of a major weather event this year, poor data could thwart attempts to improve predictions", Nature; Volume: 508, Pages: 20–21, Date published: (03 April 2014), doi:10.1038/508020a

http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972 (http://www.nature.com/news/el-ni%C3%B1o-tests-forecasters-1.14972)

A key extract from the Tollefson (April 2014) article indicates that by July our current ensemble mean projections will give better results, but until then, the influence of factors such as the CCKW and the MJO currently in the Indian Ocean will be left out of the ensemble mean forecasts: "El Niño often emerges during the Northern Hemisphere summer and peaks around December; forecast models can do a reasonable job of predicting its eventual strength by July, when the changes in ocean circulation that give rise to the weather pattern have become pronounced. But scientists are working feverishly to provide earlier forecasts, to allow govern¬ments more time to prepare for potentially devastating weather patterns."

We should not forget that both CCKW and MJO are atmospheric equatorial waves that propagate around the world in 30 to 60 days, and thus they may (or they may not) survive long enough to periodically pump more energy into our current EKW.  Furthermore, we should not forget that the current EKW is presently generating oceanic Rossby waves near the coast of South America that will travel back to the Western Equatorial Pacific over the next approximately 6 months; which should provide one more guaranteed kick of energy into our current EKW around the November to December timeframe that might (or might not) push our current El Nino (if it sustains itself) over the Nino3.4 index value of +3.0 into what I consider to be a "Monster" El Nino category.  Again we will all need to wait and see what happens as the year progresses.

Best Regards,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 06, 2014, 07:57:27 PM
While I am not a meteorologist, to me the attached image (from the linked website) of atmospheric tropical wave, and associate atmospheric convection analysis, maps issued on April 6th (with what I believe are hind castes for April 5th), indicate that the CCKW (Kelvin wave) has now left the Indian Ocean and is headed eastward, and that the MJO will soon follow (at a slower rate).  Furthermore, I take the "Low Pass" analysis to indicate that WWBs are coming soon to the Western Equatorial Pacific (supporting the GFS +180 hr, and the Albany U +180 hr, tropical storm forecasts).  With regard to the figure, blue indicates more convection and red indicates less convection.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhoriz.php)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 02:42:07 AM
The attached image gives the 30-day moving average SOI value issued on April 7 2014, which is: -9.7.  While this value indicates that the atmosphere is still providing reinforcement to create a sustainable El Nino condition; however, at the rate that it has been changing for the past couple of days, it is possible that it might reach a neutral condition in 2 to 3 days (or not).  Furthermore, the cloud cover around the Equatorial Date Line has recently decreased.  All of this implies that the trade winds are trying to re-establish themselves, and we will need to see whether any possible WWBs change this situation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 07, 2014, 03:51:27 AM
The attached image gives the 30-day moving average SOI value issued on April 7 2014, which is: -9.7.  While this value indicates that the atmosphere is still providing reinforcement to create a sustainable El Nino condition; however, at the rate that it has been changing for the past couple of days, it is possible that it might reach a neutral condition in 2 to 3 days (or not).  Furthermore, the cloud cover around the Equatorial Date Line has recently decreased.  All of this implies that the trade winds are trying to re-establish themselves, and we will need to see whether any possible WWBs change this situation.

I have been watching the SOI a great deal as of late and have noticed its quite fickle this time of year. 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 12:34:55 PM
ChasingIce,

Clearly issues like the fickle nature of the SOI this time of year contribute to the Spring Barrier for forecasting.

However, while long-range weather forecasts are also quite fickle; nevertheless: (a) the first image of the University of Albany 174-hr vorticity & wind forecast for April 14 2014, shows a growing WWB (presumably due to the arrival of the CCKW); (b) the second, third and four images show the WunderMap forecasts for April 15, 16 and 17, respectively; all showing increasing amount of disturbed air (convective activity), presumably as the CCKW continues eastward and as the possible MJO approaches.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 04:06:12 PM
As we are rapidly approaching the Pacific typhoon season, I thought that I would provide the following link (with a free access pdf) to a 2012 paper about tropical cyclone prediction (for those who are interested):

http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs-wm/39335.pdf (http://cdn.intechopen.com/pdfs-wm/39335.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 07, 2014, 04:17:07 PM
Weekly Niño 3.4 index is 0.3 C for April 2nd. Niño 3 is 0.5 C and Niño 4 is 0.7 C. El Niño is just teasing at this point.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 04:19:33 PM
The attached NOAA SST anomaly graph for April 7 2011 shows that the Equatorial Pacific surface temperature anomaly are continuing to increase:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 04:42:40 PM
The attached image is from NOAA issued on April 7 2014 of the Equatorial Pacific Upper - Ocean Heat Content Anomaly (180 to 100W) which shows a value of approximately 1.7 degrees C for April 7 2014, which is a significant increase from the value of 1.6 degrees C that BFTV reported in Reply #475 on April 4 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 05:02:49 PM
Weekly Niño 3.4 index is 0.3 C for April 2nd. Niño 3 is 0.5 C and Niño 4 is 0.7 C. El Niño is just teasing at this point.

deep octopus,

While the weekly NOAA Nino3.4 data that you cite, centered on April 2 2014, is correct; the attached image from Kyle MacRitchie's site (see link below), indicates that all daily Nino3.4 values after April 2 2014 have all been above +0.5.

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4/)

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 07, 2014, 07:13:12 PM
ASLR,

Thanks. Interesting info. Sorry if you've answered this before, but do you know how those daily values are figured?

The models are getting quite interesting now. We enter the 2nd week of April with the most aggressive forecasts in a while. The mean expectation is a strong El Niño by October, with one model going as high as 3 C. As has been pointed out before, there may be some limitations in the models with regards to predicting WWBs.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Mon.gif&hash=81e85fe59434671dda95f5abc539c5ff)

By the way, the ocean heat content chart shown just now by ASLR suggests that we're now surpassing the peak from the 2009/2010 El Niño, and this is a good indicator that we should expect moderate El Niño conditions at a minimum.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 08:21:13 PM
deep octopus,

From the following link:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/maps-help/ (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/maps-help/)

"ENSO/SST Regions

These are SST forecasts from the CFSR for the specified regions. I only have data for the past couple of weeks, but it will fill in as time goes on. These are daily SST indices which is highly unusual since SSTs don’t change much on a daily scale. Therefore, they may look a little different than the weekly or monthly indices you are probably more used to. Each index is normalized by removing the seasonal cycle and dividing by the seasonal cycle of the standard deviation of the 1979-2010 base period."

If you go to the link there are additional hot-buttons that lead to other explanations of how the data is processed.

I hope that this is of some help.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 10:28:03 PM
For those who do not know about the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast (CFSRR) service (where Kyle MacRitchie gets his daily Nino indices) you can learn about it at the following links:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-and-reforecast-cfsrr (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/model-data/model-datasets/climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-and-reforecast-cfsrr)

http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs (http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?name=access#cfs)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 10:50:38 PM
From NOAA's weekly ENSO status for April 7 2014 (see link below) I selected the two attached images.  The first image shows the Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly with time; while the second image shows the SST, ONI and Thermocline Slope Index with time:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 07, 2014, 11:02:35 PM
In the attached earth surface wind map for April 7 2014, it appears that Tropical Storm PEIPAH is gaining strength and is starting to create a small WWB.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 03:16:58 AM
Attached is the SOI chart for April 8 2014 with a value of -9.0 (which is a slightly slower rate of becoming less negative than yesterday).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: k largo on April 08, 2014, 03:55:30 AM
deep octopus, you state:

Quote
"The models are getting quite interesting now. We enter the 2nd week of April with the most aggressive forecasts in a while. The mean expectation is a strong El Niño by October, with one model going as high as 3 C.

I know what you mean, but strictly speaking they are not different models. It is one model: CFSv2 with many model runs.  There are a lot of different models from agencies predicting SST anomalies but most report their output only once a month. Amongst the models there is significant variation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on April 08, 2014, 07:49:09 AM
Quoting the Australian Bureau of Metereology ENSO status report issued on 8 april, today: "It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: icefest on April 08, 2014, 08:05:29 AM
Some extra quotes and links to the BoM report on ENSO:
Quote from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
It is now likely (estimated at a greater than 70% chance) that an El Niño will develop during the southern hemisphere winter. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and sub-surface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate continued warming of the central Pacific Ocean in coming months. Most models predict sea surface temperatures will reach El Niño thresholds during the coming winter season.
El Niño is often, but not always, associated with below normal rainfall across large parts of southern and inland eastern Australia during the second half of the year. The strength of an El Niño does not always indicate how much it will influence Australian rainfall. Historically there are examples where weak events have resulted in widespread drought across large parts of Australia, while at other times strong events have resulted in relatively modest impacts. It is too early to determine the strength of this potential El Niño. Daytime temperatures tend to be above normal over southern Australia during El Niño.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a neutral state. Model outlooks indicate the IOD will remain neutral through late autumn and early winter. The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 08, 2014, 03:25:27 PM
k largo,

Good point, thanks for catching that. The word I was really aiming for was "member", or "run."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 08, 2014, 03:44:49 PM
There is potential for a weakly positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) later this spring. Not yet enough to classify as a positive IOD event, but worth monitoring for it may exacerbate El Niño effects.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Fclimate%2Fenso%2Fmonitoring%2Fpoama.iod.small.png&hash=818abcc51df75ff5b29168992b952d9d)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 04:26:49 PM
In support of the idea that a Super El Nino may be developing sooner, rather than later, I offer:

(a) The first attached image shows that the wwv value (prior to April 2 2014) was well over 2 x 1014 m3; which is comparable to the peak wwv value for the 1997-98 Super El Nino event.
(b) The second attached image (from Kyle MacRitchie) shows that for every day from April 2 to April 8, the Nino3.4 index has been above +0.5; therefore, I would not be surprised if the next NOAA weekly Nino3.4 value reported on April 15 for the week centered on April 9, indicates an El Nino condition.
(c) The third attached image, issued by the University of Albany on April 8, forecasts strong WWB's in the Western Equatorial Pacific by April 15 2014.
(d) The fourth attached image (from Kyle MacRitchie) supports the projection that a strong MJO may reach the Equatorial Date Line by the end of April (or beginning of May); which if it were to occur, could readily convert the Walker Cell to a full El Nino condition.

Furthermore, I note that the BoM April 8 2014 ENSO wrap-up message states:
"The chance of a positive IOD event occurring will increase if an El Niño develops."  Therefore, I would not be surprised if in the near future the IOD forecast swings towards positive values by Fall (austral Winter).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 08, 2014, 04:38:17 PM
Tuesday, April 8th update to CFSv2 model indicates a mean run of 1.9 C in November in Niño 3.4. For purposes of consistency, Niño 3.4 more than or equal to 2 C I regard as a "super El Niño" condition. How likely it comes to fruition will depend on the MJO/CCKW activity this month.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 05:32:29 PM
While no one can predict the future, I do note that MJO/CCKW activity in April/May is not the only chance to upgrade the current fledging El Nino into a Super (greater than 2 degrees C Nino3.4) status, as the 2014 Typhoon Season is also coming soon as indicated by the following quote and attached figure from Wikipedia:

"The 2014 Pacific hurricane season will be an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. The season will officially start on May 15, 2014 in the Eastern Pacific, and on June 1, 2014 in the Central Pacific, and end on November 30, 2014. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time."

I note that typhoons can create WWBs that can strengthen an El Nino, and I also note that the August 20 1997 Nino3.4 value was +2.1 degree C.  We will all need to wait patiently to see what actually unfolds.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 05:44:43 PM
The following Wikipedia link discusses Tropical Storm events in the Western North Pacific Ocean between January 1 and April 8 2014, and includes the attached image showing that this has already been an active tropical storm period:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Pacific_typhoon_season)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 07:43:31 PM
I thought that I would post this chart of the measured MJO track/strength for the past 90-days through April 7 2014; which indicates that the measured MJO is stronger than the forecast MJO for April 7 2014, and that this system is still on track to enter the Equatorial Pacific later in April 2014.

Also, I note that this graph is from The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and updates can be found at the following link:

http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html (http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/RMM/phase.Last90days.html)

Furthermore, I note that RMM means: "Real-time Multivariate MJO"
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 07:49:53 PM
For clarity, I provide the attached DOE image showing the location of the Maritime Continent w.r.t. the progress of the MJO (note that my last post shows that the MJO is almost in the middle of Borneo).

Also, if you want to learn more about the RRM and the MJO, I recommend that you review the information (and data) at the linked website:

http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/current/rmm/ (http://monitor.cicsnc.org/mjo/current/rmm/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 08, 2014, 11:13:07 PM
The attached Cyclocane Tropical Storm forecast issued on April 8 2014 shows that while Tropical Storm Peipah is not growing; Tropical Cyclone Ita is projected to grow rapidly (which is contributing to a limited amount of WWB activity in the far Western Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 12:17:54 AM
The two attached images are from the linked article, and for NOAA NCEP forecasts for global temperature anomalies and precipitation, respectively (see image captions below), related to the projected El Nino event.  I particularly draw your attention to: (a) the very high temperature anomalies in the Amundsen Sea Embayment area during the austral winter, which will likely promote ice mass loss; and (b) the very low precipitation in Indonesia (and Borneo in particular); which will likely result in extensive wildfires in the drought areas.

http://www.bitsofscience.org/2014-2015-world-temperature-record-outlook-6559/ (http://www.bitsofscience.org/2014-2015-world-temperature-record-outlook-6559/)

Caption for the first image: "NOAA NCEP El Niño global temperature chart 6-month outlook. Heat mostly confined to warm SST anomaly areas. After El Niño this heat will not just disappear, but disperse, affecting global climate also beyond 2014"

Caption for the second image: "NOAA NCEP El Niño precipitation chart 6-month outlook: drought over Indonesia (Borneo!), above average rainfall across East Pacific."

Furthermore, if I am correct and the current El Nino reaches a Super status by August 2014; then the NOAA NCEP chart will be non-conservative from a public safety point of view.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on April 09, 2014, 01:22:24 AM
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)

MEI for March -0.017 up from Feb -0.269
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html)

Despite the reading still being negative for March, it seems there are still indications from it for likelihood of strong El Nino:

Discussion at
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/index.html)

Quote
The updated (February-March) MEI has gone up a quarter standard deviation, now at -0.02. Its current ranking has gone up to the 33rd lowest out of 65, still solidly in ENSO-neutral territory. To find analogous cases, I looked at the nearest-ranked Feb-Mar MEI values, and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Nov-Dec. Of the 9 cases selected in this fashion, three remained either neutral (1960) or dropped back to La Niña status within a year (1961, 1984). The other SIX cases look like a roll-call of historic El Niño events since 1950: 1957-58,'65-66, '72-73, '82-83, '86-88, and '97-98. Not only does this confirm the increased odds of an El Niño in 2014 (first pointed out four months ago on this wepage), it also translates into higher odds for a moderate-to-strong El Niño.

In a big change from last month, positive SST anomalies now cover much of the eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. Negative SST anomalies are still found near the coast of South America.

For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the latest NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (March 6th, 2014), ENSO-neutral conditions are diagnosed and expected to continue through the boreal spring of 2014, followed by a 50% chance of El Niño developing during the summer or fall. As explained above, I am more 'bullish' on El Niño development in 2014, even more so than last month.

...

Stay tuned for the next update by May 10th (probably earlier) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño came and went during the summer of 2012, not unlike 1953. This was followed by two ENSO-neutral winters, and occasional dips into weak La Niña conditions over the last 1.5 years. It appears that this is about to change, and full-fledged El Niño conditions may arrive sooner rather than later.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 01:39:28 AM
While long range weather forecasts can be very fickle, I attach the accompanying two forecasts for April 15 and 16, respectively, from the University of Albany; both of which indicate a strong WWB that may stop all trade wind activity between 5N & 5S west of the Date Line.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 01:46:42 AM
Attached is the NOAA Subsea Equatorial Pacific Temperature Anomaly & Mean graphs for April 3 2014.  These graphs show that the EKW is continuing to both grow and to surface:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 03:18:53 AM
The more important part of this post is that the 30-day moving average for SOI for April 9 2014 has fluctuated back to becoming more negative with a value of -9.3 (see the first attached image).

The second, third and fourth attached images are the BoM's average weekly Nino 3, 3.4 and 4 indices, respectively, for the week ending April 6 2014, and not surprisingly they closely match the weekly NOAA values for the week centered on April 2 2014 (indicating a neutral ENSO for the week ending April 6).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: k largo on April 09, 2014, 06:46:35 AM
Abrupt SLR wrote

Quote
The more important part of this post is that the 30-day moving average for SOI for April 9 2014 has fluctuated back to becoming more negative with a value of -9.3).

Daily values which make up the SOI fluctuate a lot and therefore the 30 day running mean changes are variable as well. The Queensland Govt Long Paddock site which has a lot of information on SOI has the current value at -7.21 after reaching its lowest value of -12.30 on 27 March. The method of calculating SOI by Long Paddock varies slightly from BOM, due I expect  to a different base period,  but they don’t vary greatly.  The current daily values have been strongly positive since 3 April replacing 30day old negative values.  Unless the pattern changes, the SOI will continue to become less negative and rebound temporarily, which is not unusual.
 Long Paddock has 30 day means taken over the previous day, BOM takes it over two days.
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 03:22:50 PM
k largo,

Thanks for the link to the Long Paddock site, showing that the daily SOI values are currently positive.  As deep octopus stated, if the current fledgling El Nino is going to strengthen sooner, rather than later, then the most likely mechanism (ie atmospheric equatorial waves) to affect this change would be for a CCKW to move through the Western Equatorial Pacific followed immediately by a reasonably strong MJO, from now to the end of April.

In this regards:
(a) The first attached image shows the 200 hPa CCKW anomalies showing (note that the blue shading indicates the active convective area) that on April 8 the heart of actively convective wind velocity anomaly is east of Borneo and headed towards the Date Line.
(b) The second attached image shows the measured MJO status on April 8, which is just about to leave Borneo and is headed east with a reasonable level of strength (I will let you guess as to whether it strengthens or weakens as it heads towards the Date Line).
(c)  The third image shows the earth wind map at the surface for April 9 2014, showing that the Equatorial Westerlies are slowly increasing from 125E to 140E.
(d)  The fourth image from Kyle MacRitchie's site shows that between April 2 and April 8 the daily Nino3.4 index values have all been above +0.5 so if one were calculating a weekly moving average for the Nino3.4 index we would now have a weekly Nino3.4 value above +0.5, indicating that the ocean should be providing some positive feedback to promote El Nino conditions.

We will all need to wait to see which trend dominates over the critical remaining weeks of April.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 04:45:51 PM
The linked article by Lin et al (2014) concludes:

"The Lindzen–Nigam mechanism affects the New Guinea CEF through the New Guinea SST anomalies, which are closely related to concurrent ENSO. However, such causality should not be regarded as a nailed fact even though concurrent ENSO is supposed to be the ‘external’ forcing for the monsoon trough variability. The CEF can accelerate the growth of ENSO by enhancing the anomalous westerlies in the WNP, which is another feature of an enhanced monsoon trough.  Thus, a positive feedback between the local Hadley cell in the tropical western Pacific and the ENSO source areas could come into play. If so, this binary feature can contribute to the Nino/Nina asymmetry via a non-Bjerknes feedback, a subject we currently are exploring."

Where, the New Guinea Cross Equatorial Flow is abbreviated as CEF.

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/4/044003/pdf/1748-9326_9_4_044003.pdf (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/4/044003/pdf/1748-9326_9_4_044003.pdf)

Yu-Wei Lin, LinHo  and Chia Chou, (2014), "The role of the New Guinea cross-equatorial flow in the interannual variability of the western North Pacific summer monsoon", Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 044003 (7pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/4/044003


Abstract
"The western North Pacific (WNP) monsoon trough from 1958 to 2001 shows a binary like feature in August and September, with more than half being either an imposing presence or a total absence. One of the major moisture sources maintaining the WNP monsoon trough is the low level moisture advection laterally driven by the low level cross equatorial flow that originates from the Banda Sea and Solomon Sea. By decomposing contributions to the cross equatorial flow based on the method proposed by Back and Bretherton in 2009, the boundary layer pressure gradient in the Maritime Continent plays a major role. This pressure gradient is further found to be associated with the densely packed sea surface temperature (SST) gradient near the equator around New Guinea, which is well correlated with the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, a concurrent El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) condition."



Also, see the following Wu et al (2012) linked reference which clearly ties the development of an El Nino condition with increased tropical storm (typhoon) activity in the Western North Pacific:

Wu, Liang, Zhiping Wen, Ronghui Huang, Renguang Wu, 2012: Possible Linkage between the Monsoon Trough Variability and the Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 140–150.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00078.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00078.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00078.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00078.1)


Abstract: "The present study investigates the influence of the monsoon trough (MT) on the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific during July–November for the period 1979–2007. It is shown that the TC activity is closely related to the MT location. During the years when the MT extends eastward (retreats westward), more (less) TCs form within the southeastern quadrant of the western North Pacific. Such a relationship can be explained by the changes in large-scale environmental factors associated with the movement of the MT. An eastward extension of the MT coincides with warmed ocean surface, enhanced convection, increased relative humidity in the lower and midtroposphere, reduced vertical shear of zonal wind, intensified upper-level divergence, and low-level anomalous cyclonic vorticity over the southeast quadrant of the western North Pacific. These conditions associated with the eastern extension of the MT are favorable for TC genesis, while those associated with the westward retreat of the MT are not. Diagnosis of the barotropic energy conversion indicates that synoptic-scale disturbances moving westward from tropical eastern Pacific will gain the energy from the mean flow when they meet with the eastward-extending MT. This is an important reason for the linkage between MT variability and TC genesis over the western North Pacific."

It will be interesting to watch the monsoon trough and the associated tropical storm activity in the Western North Pacific as the current typhoon season gets started.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 08:58:10 PM
The following linked reference may be too technical for some/many as it discusses the differences between faster and slower components of CCKWs:

Yasunaga, Kazuaki, Brian Mapes, 2014: Differences between Faster versus Slower Components of Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves. J. Atmos. Sci., 71, 98–111. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-03.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-03.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-13-03.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-13-03.1)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 10:28:55 PM
With the attached close-up view of the Equatorial Western North Pacific surface winds for April 9 2014 from earth wind maps; I think that it is not hard to detect the beginning of a monsoon trough north of New Guinea, that is trying to extend eastward.  We will see whether the projected arrival of the CCKW and then the MJO manage to extend such a fledgling monsoon trough towards the Date Line (see Reply #530 for background on such a monsoon trough):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 10:55:27 PM
Further to Replies 525 and 532, the attached University of Albany vorticity and surface wind map forecast to April 17 2014, shows the westerly wind north of New Guinea extending almost all the way to the Date Line; which (if the forecast comes true) would facility the conversion of the Walker Cell into an El Nino mode, should the MJO arrive near the Date Line sometime in the third, or fourth week in April.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 09, 2014, 11:34:37 PM
The following link leads to an article in the Insurance Journal about some of the possible consequences of a 2014-15 El Nino event:

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2014/04/08/325752.htm (http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2014/04/08/325752.htm)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 03:04:59 AM
Attached is BoM's 30-day moving average plot for April 10 2014, with a value of -9.1.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 04:45:25 AM
I believe that the following abstract from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meetings, in February in Hawaii is very relevant to our current case as we currently have westerly winds developing between 120W and 180W (possibly due to the CCKW), and in such cases abstract cites that a MJO event will help to initiate an equatorial Pacific waveguide (such as a monsoon trough north of Indonesia).  We will soon see if this happens in the coming weeks:

"SUBSEASONAL ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY AND EL NIÑO WAVEGUIDE WARMING; OBSERVED EFFECTS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION AND WESTERLY WIND EVENTS

Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) have been shown to initiate El Nino-type equatorial Pacific waveguide warming. The inter-relationship between WWE and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity, and their role in initiating equatorial Pacific waveguide warming is reconsidered here (period 1986-2010). WWEs are identified in the observed record of near surface zonal winds based on a previously developed objective scheme. MJO events are defined using a widely used index. We find waveguide warming for MJO events that contain WWEs in similar magnitudes as following WWEs that are not embedded in an MJO. However, very little waveguide warming follows MJO events that do not contain an embedded WWE. Further, we find that the occurrence of an MJO event does not significantly affect the likelihood that a WWE will occur. These results show that it is the WWE, not MJO-related, wind stress anomalies that drive the observed cold-tongue warming, confirming the results of Vecchi (2000) with a near doubling of the period of study. Extending previous results, we also highlight the role that WWEs play in initiating El Nino events of different ‘flavors’."


Authors
Chiodi, A. M., JISAO/University of Washington, USA, andy.chiodii@gmail.com

Harrison, D. E., NOAA PMEL and JISAO/University of Washington, USA, D.E.Harrison@noaa.gov

Vecchi, G. A., NOAA GFDL, USA, Gabriel.A.Vecchi@noaa.gov
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 04:51:27 AM
The following abstract from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meetings, in February in Hawaii clearly indicates that due to global warming we can expect to experience stronger ENSO events, both now and in the future; than at any time in the past 600-years:


"INFERRED CHANGES IN EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION VARIANCE OVER THE PAST SIX CENTURIES

It is vital to understand how the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has responded to past changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings, in order to better understand and predict its response to future greenhouse warming. To date, however, the instrumental record is too brief to fully characterize natural ENSO variability, while large discrepancies exist amongst paleo-proxy reconstructions of ENSO. These paleo-proxy reconstructions have typically attempted to reconstruct ENSO’s temporal evolution, rather than the variance of these temporal changes. Here a new approach is developed that synthesizes the variance changes from various proxy datasets to provide a unified and updated estimate of past ENSO variance. The method is tested using surrogate data from two coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulations. It is shown that in the presence of dating uncertainties, synthesizing variance information provides a more robust estimate of ENSO variance than synthesizing the raw data and then identifying its running variance. Synthesizing existing ENSO reconstructions to arrive at a better estimate of past ENSO variance changes, we find robust evidence that the ENSO variance for any 30-year period during the interval 1590-1880 was considerably lower than that observed during 1979-2009."


Authors
McGregor, S., Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia, shayne.mcgregor@unsw.edu.au

Timmermann, A., IPRC, University of Hawaii, USA, axel@hawaii.edu

England, M. H., Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Australia, m.england@unsw.edu.au

Elison Timm, O., University at Albany, State University of New York, USA, oelisontimm@albany.edu

Wittenberg, A. T., GFDL, NOAA, USA, andrew.wittenberg@noaa.go
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 05:01:35 AM
The following abstract from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meetings, in February in Hawaii clearly supports the conclusion cited in Reply 537 that due to global warming we can expect to experience more frequent  strong El Nino events, both now and in the future:


"MORE FREQUENT EMERGENCE OF EL NIÑO PROPAGATION ASYMMETRY DUE TO GREENHOUSE WARMING

Sea surface temperature anomalies typically propagate westward along the equatorial Pacific during both El Niño and La Niña events. Since the late 1970’s however, an opposite propagation has been observed, most prominently during extreme El Niño events. This propagation asymmetry challenges existing theories on how ENSO works. Through heat budget analysis utilising various observational data assimilation systems, the equatorial Pacific currents are found to be an important element for this asymmetry, whereby the westward flowing currents are enhanced during La Niña but reversed during extreme El Niño events. Our results highlight that propagation asymmetry is favoured when the westward mean currents weaken. By analysing climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5, it is found that as the mean currents weaken under global warming, an aggregate of models with more realistic propagation behaviour indeed simulate a doubling in the frequency of eastward propagating El Niños. Our results have implications for understanding ENSO behaviour across models, and suggest that more frequent emergence of eastward El Niño will be a symptom of a warming climate."


Authors
Santoso, A., University of New South Wales, Australia, a.santoso@unsw.edu.au

McGregor, S., University of New South Wales, Australia, shayne.mcgregor@unsw.edu.au

Jin, F. F., University of Hawaii, USA, jff@hawaii.edu

Cai, W., CSIRO, Australia, wenju.cai@csiro.au

England, M. H., University of New South Wales, Australia, m.england@unsw.edu.au
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 05:08:37 AM
The following abstract from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meetings, in February in Hawaii clearly supports the point that current models cannot adequately forecast the occurrence of Super El Nino events:


"MULTIPLICATIVE NOISE FORCING, EL NINO ASYMMETRY, AND SUPER EL NINO EVENTS

A super El Niño event, such as the one occurred in 1997/98, has dramatic global impacts. Transient equatorial winds attributable to westerly wind burst and MJO events are known as effective triggers for this kind of super El Niño events. Utilizing the simple recharge oscillator model framework with considerations of multiplicative noise forcing, we delineated that there is a close relationship between the occurrence of super El Nino events and the El Nino/La Nina positive asymmetry or skewness. Moreover, we derived a linear relation between El Nino skewness and the SST-dependent factor of multiplicative noise forcing. By assessing simulated El Nino skewness and the SST-dependent factor in the noise forcing from AR5 coupled model simulations, we found a similar linear relation. Current climate models still have significant biases in terms of capturing the SST-dependent factor in the noise forcing of El Nino, which significantly affect model’s ability in simulating El Nino asymmetry and occurrence of super El Nino Events."


Authors
Jin, F., University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA, jff@hawaii.edu

Levine, A., University of Hawaii at Manoa, USA, aflevine@hawaii.edu
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 04:03:05 PM
The attached image of the historical MJO - RMM index (from the BoM) shows that on April 9 2014 the MJO strengthened as it traveled eastward from Borneo.

However, the interaction between convectively-coupled equatorial Kelvin waves (CCKW) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation, is relatively complex as indicated by the following linked abstract from Guo et al (April 2014).  This abstract indicates that the CCKW is suppressed in MJO phase 5 and 6 (where the CCKW currently is) and indeed there are indications that the CCKW is weakening a bit; however, transitions occur in MJO phase 7 (the Western Equatorial Pacific approaching the Date Line), and the CCKW is enhanced as it enters MJO phase 8 (east of the Date Line).  Thus it is probable that by the end of April that the atmospheric conditions for transitioning the Walker Cell into an El Nino condition will be strong (as the MJO that is trailing behind the CCKW may receive positive reinforcement from the CCKW by the time that the MJO reaches the Date Line).  Also, I note that the attached image shows that when the MJO last approached the Date Line at the end of February 2014 it was also strengthened, and we may soon see this behavior repeated (or possibly not).


Yanjuan Guo, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA; and X. Jiang and D. E. Waliser (2014), "Modulation of the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves over South America and tropical Atlantic Ocean in Association with the Madden-Julian Oscillation"

Abstract: "The convectively-coupled equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW) is one of the major tropical wave modes and plays important roles in local and downstream weather. The CCKW activity is found to exhibit strong variation over the South America and tropical Atlantic region on both climatological and intraseasonal time scales. In this work, the modulation of the CCKW activity over this region by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been investigated. The CCKW activity is found to be enhanced during MJO phase 8, 1, and 2 (most evident in phase 1), and suppressed during MJO phase 4, 5, 6 (most evident in phase 5), while transitional signals occur in phase 3 and 7. The enhancement (suppression) of the CCKW activity is primarily associated with the increased (decreased) CCKW amplitude, with the amplitude modulation evident throughout the troposphere and even into the stratosphere for winds and temperature, while the vertical structure of the CCKWs show only modest variation across MJO phases.
Mechanism examination reveals that the MJO modulates the CCKW activity through its modulation of two large scale background conditions in which the CCKWs are embedded: the vertical zonal wind shear and the lower to middle troposphere moisture content. To be more specific, the enhanced CCKW activity is associated with the westward wind shear anomalies and positive troposphere moisture anomalies, and vice versa. These two physical processes modulated by the MJO are found to have positively (negatively) reinforcing influences in the CCKW activity in phase 1 (4, and 5), while counteracting influences in phases 2, 3, 6, 7, and 8. Combined together, they produce the observed MJO cycle of the CCKW activity anomalies in the study region to a large extent.
The above results have broader implications for the prediction of tropical weather patterns and extreme events as well as the initiation and prediction of the MJO itself."

https://ams.confex.com/ams/31Hurr/webprogram/Paper244938.html
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2014, 05:24:40 PM
Latest
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION

by CPC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf)
Quote
10April

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
 
Synopsis: While ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere spring, the chances of El Niño
increase during the remainder of the year, exceeding 50% by summer.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 05:56:53 PM
crandles,

Thank you for the link to that April 10 2014 ENSO DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION by the NCEP, and it is good to see that NOAA officially acknowledges a greater than 50% chance of an El Nino event by the boreal summer of 2014 (note that the BoM cites a 70% chance).  However, as most readers of this thread will already be aware, that this official diagnosis is already somewhat out of date as indicated by the first attached image by the NCEP issued on April 10 2014 showing a growing probability of an El Nino event.  Furthermore the official April 10 diagnosis does not take into account that since April 2 the Nino3.4 index has continuously been about a value of +0.5.  Also, as my current series of posts indicate that the NOAA/NCEP official diagnosis does not adequately account for either CCKW nor MJO equatorial waves, their projections cannot take adequately take into consideration the events that are currently unfolding in the Maritime Continent (see also my next post).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 05:58:16 PM
The first attached image is the 48-hr Tropical Storm forecast from Cyclocane showing that PEIPAH has been down-graded to a Tropical Depression and is forecast to drift along a more Northwestward storm track.  This supports the concept that a new monsoon trough may be forming north of New Guinea as this storm track would bring the area of positive vorticity more in alignment with the monsoon trough pattern shown in the second attached image after Lin et al (2014) [see Reply #530]:

Caption for the second attached image: "The August–September 850hPa streamline charts are classified into strong (no) monsoon trough years in left (right) column. Shading covers areas with positive vorticity greater than 2.5 (10-6 s-1). The black thick line plots the monsoon trough and the blue dashed line tags the equatorial ridge. The typhoon symbols indicate the location of tropical cyclone formation from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The boxes indicate the domain to calculate the monsoon trough index (MTI)."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 06:20:47 PM
In addition to the abstracts that I have already posted from the 2014 Ocean Sciences Meeting, more relevant abstracts can be found at the link below on the topic of:  "Understanding and simulating ENSO in past, present and future climates", such as the abstract by Petrova et al (2014) citing the value of using an "Unobserved Component Time Series" projection approach considering such components at subsurface water temperatures and Rossbell dipole values:

http://www.sgmeet.com/osm2014/sessionschedule.asp?SessionID=142 (http://www.sgmeet.com/osm2014/sessionschedule.asp?SessionID=142)

Abstract:
"FORECASTING EL NIÑO USING UNOBSERVED COMPONENTS TIME SERIES MODELS WITH TIME-VARYING REGRESSION PARAMETERS
El Niño is a dominant feature of climate variability on inter-annual time scales, causing changes in the weather throughout the globe and having widespread socio-economic consequences. As its forecasting is important, this study explores novel methods for EN prediction. In the state-of-the-art the advantageous statistical modeling approach of Unobserved Component Time Series has not been applied. Therefore, we have developed such a model with time-varying regression parameters using State Space approach for the time series analysis. Its distinguishing feature is that observations consist of various components - level, seasonality, cycle, disturbance, and regression variables incorporated as explanatory covariates (Durbin and Koopman, 2000). These components are modeled separately, then combined in a single model for analysis and forecasting. Customary statistical models for EN prediction essentially use SST, SLP and wind stress in the equatorial Pacific. We introduce new regression variables - subsurface ocean temperature in the western equatorial Pacific, motivated by recent (Ramesh and Murtugudde, 2012) and classical (Jin, 1997), (Wyrtki, 1985) research showing that subsurface processes and heat accumulation there are fundamental for the initiation of EN; and a southern Pacific temperature-difference tracer, the Rossbell dipole, leading EN by about nine months (Ballester, 2011)."

ePoster:
Authors
Petrova, D. B., Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain, desislava.petrova@ic3.cat
Rodó, X., Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain, xavier.rodo@ic3.cat
Koopman, S. J., VU University Amsterdam, Netherlands, s.j.koopman@vu.nl
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 10, 2014, 06:21:58 PM
Rather interesting to see if the very powerful cyclone Ita will have any impact on the WWB.. Right now Ita is a Cat 4 hurricane with the potential to grow into a borderline Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricane before it makes landfall by tomorrow...

Otherwise, there are no visible signs of TC formation for the next 10 days..  The westerlies in the Pacific have continuosly abated and are now only marginally positive and even somewhat negative around the date line...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 07:09:28 PM
Lord Vader,

I realize that all of my posts about a possible monsoon trough north of New Guinea and/or a relatively strong MJO possibly reaching the Date Line by the end of April, are speculative/problematic; however, if they do occur then I do not believe that a large typhoon comparable to Super Typhoon Isa in 1997 will be required to kick the current fledgling El Nino into a Super status by August 2014; as I believe that a simple transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino condition is sufficient to achieve that mark.

Furthermore, the link provided by k largo indicates that the Long Paddock station has a negative SOI reading for April 10 2014 as indicated below (which may (or may not) mean that the 30-day moving SOI value may become more negative in the coming days), see the Long Paddock station data below for April 10:
                     Tahiti    Darwin       daily
10 Apr 2014 1010.80 1009.45    -7.50       

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 07:48:09 PM
Further to my response to Lord Vader, while I do not think that a typhoon in the Tropical Western North Pacific is necessary to quickly strengthen the current fledgling El Nino, such an event by the end of April clearly would accelerate the strengthening of the current El Nino; and while long-range weather forecasts are rather fickle the accompanying forecast by WunderMap for April 23, 24, 25 and 26, respectively, show a tropic storm that could grow into a typhoon near the same timeframe as the 1997 Super Typhoon Isa event (which clearly helped kicked that El Nino in a Super category):

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 10, 2014, 09:01:51 PM
Well, long-range forecasts concerning TC:s are very difficult to do but if there would be a TC then it would be nice if it could help kick in El Niño :)

But a really big El Niño would be quite interesting... One wonder when the Kelvin wave finally comes to surface...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 09:46:32 PM
The attached NOAA SST anomaly graph for April 10 2011 shows that the Equatorial Pacific surface temperature anomaly are continuing to increase; however, it also shows that the upwelling around the Galapagos Islands is continuing to reduce both the Nino 1 & 2 indices and also appears to be limiting the amount that the CTW is impacting the Humboldt Current off the coast of Peru.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 10:14:48 PM
Lord Vader,

To me our current situation is very comparable to the situation two to three weeks later in the season in 1997; so if you are interested in reviewing how fast the EKW surfaces, I recommend that you look at the images that I posted in Reply #415, beginning with May 1997.  You will note that the EKW surfaced relatively slowing, and in stages, until it peaked in January of 1998, and I believe that we will witness similar behavior in 2014-15.

Some people (Frequentists) may think it unlikely that the 2014-15 season should closely parallel (or slightly exceed) the 1997-98 response; however, I am not of that opinion because of all of the chaotic strange attractors that I have seen as the current El Nino season has progressed including: (a) the MJO in late February 2014 (that triggered WWBs in late February & early March) that has now returned about 60-days later working synergistically this time with a CCKW, in April; (b) the New Guinea cross-equatorial flow (CEF) apparently currently contributing to the development of a monsoon trough north of New Guinea; (c) the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) event that helped trigger additional WWBs in mid-March, and (d) the possibility of a typhoon in the Tropical Western North Pacific, due to an earlier than traditional typhoon season, possibly due to global warming. 

Many researcher are trying to incorporate the influence of such strange attractors into hybrid models; however, currently I do not believe that the established "process-based" ENSO forecasting methodology officially recognizes the appropriateness of such hybrid models.  Perhaps a strong El Nino this year will help with the process of trying to capture the influence of such strange attractors with future official forecasts.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 11:11:34 PM
The accompanying three images provide additional support for the sequence of events that I cited in Reply #540 leading from now up to a possible transition of the Walker Cell by the end of April. 

The first attached image is of today's (April 10 2014) earth surface wind map showing that Tropical Depression PEIPAH is moving Northwest and another tropical depression can be seen forcing to the east of PEIPAH, which I believe is helping to form a monsoon trough that will extend the stunted westerlies in the Equatorial Western Pacific towards the Date Line. 

The second attached image shows the time series of the CCKW velocity potential anomalies, and the wind anomalies, at 200-hPa issued on April 10 2014.  These images not only show that the CCKW is still progressing eastward; but also that by April 16 the wind anomaly near the Date Line at 200-hPa will be directed westward which should help begin the transition of the Walker Cell.

The third attached image shows the University of Albany 180-hr vorticity and surface wind forecast for April 18 2014.  This image shows: (a) the vorticity between 130E and the Date Line is angling in the same manner as during the 1997 monsoon trough; and (b) the westerlies have extended almost all the way to the Date Line; which should also facilitate the transition of the Walker Cell (which might be completely transitioned to an El Nino condition if/when the MJO moves toward the Date Line shortly thereafter).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 10, 2014, 11:21:25 PM
The attached BoM cloudiness image issued April 10 2014, shows that after the recent reduction of cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line, the cloud cover is once again increasing which is necessary for the transition of the Walker Cell into an El Nino condition:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 12:07:41 AM
The following key extracts come from the linked Washington Post article about NOAA's official position that there is only a slightly greater than a 50/50 chance of an El Nino by this summer:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/10/bet-on-el-nino-says-noaa/ (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/10/bet-on-el-nino-says-noaa/)

Key extracts:
"Although NOAA predicts just over a 50/50 chance of El Niño  by the summer, it says the probabilities increase after that.
“There’s a 65% likelihood that El Niño will develop by later in the fall,” Mike Halpert, director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, tells USAToday.

…..
While NOAA’s outlook leans toward El Niño development, it cautions the devil is in the details and that models may not have them quite right.
“Despite this greater model consensus, there remains considerable uncertainty as to when El Niño will develop and how strong it may become,” NOAA writes. “This uncertainty is amplified by the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.”

……
In his ImageGeo blog, University of Colorado’s Tom Yulsman points to an independent NOAA analysis that favors a moderate to strong El Niño:
“…in his monthly analysis, Klaus Wolter of NOAA’s Earth Systems Research Laboratory noted that the evolution of conditions over the past four months suggest that a strong El Niño may well be on the way,” Yulsman writes."


While I appreciate NOAA's concern that the uncertainties associate with the spring barrier are very real; uncertainties cut both ways (both high and low).  Therefore, I would prefer that NOAA increase their probabilities (say to the 70% level cited by the BoM) and then provide a confidence level that could be tightened when we move past the current spring barrier.  In any event NOAA's scientific reticence, certainly is not stopping such entities as: Wall Street, hedge funds, insurance agencies, at risk local fishermen, and at risk farmers; from factoring more real world El Nino projections into their decision making processes.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 12:50:32 AM
As a follow-up to my immediately preceding post, the following link leads to the e-poster that I mentioned in Reply #544, which uses unobserved components time series to forecast El Nino events even through the spring barrier.  Possibly such research can some day help make official El Nino forecasts both more accurate and more timely:

http://www.eposters.net/pdfs/forecasting-el-nio-using-unobserved-components-time-series-models.pdf (http://www.eposters.net/pdfs/forecasting-el-nio-using-unobserved-components-time-series-models.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 01:03:40 AM
The linked Business Week magazine article supports the position that Wall Street also believes that NOAA's official El Nino forecast probability, is most likely too low:

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-10/u-dot-s-dot-sees-growing-chance-of-el-nino-development-later-this-year (http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-04-10/u-dot-s-dot-sees-growing-chance-of-el-nino-development-later-this-year)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 03:15:23 AM
The attached SOI 30-day moving average plot (issued April 11 2014 Sydney Time), has a value of -9.0.  While this represents a less negative value than yesterday's -9.1 value, as we saw the April 10 2014 Long Paddock station daily SOI ready was negative, but the 30-day old value that just left the average was certainly still more negative.  We will soon see if this is a fluctuation, or a trend towards more negative SOI readings:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on April 11, 2014, 05:33:03 AM
However it is interesting to note from BOM (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml):
Quote
The SOI is usually computed on a monthly basis, with values over longer periods such a year being sometimes used. Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information about the current state of the climate, and accordingly the Bureau of Meteorology does not issue them. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes.
so some of the ups and downs are surely just daily weather...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 11, 2014, 06:00:24 AM
However it is interesting to note from BOM (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml):
Quote
The SOI is usually computed on a monthly basis, with values over longer periods such a year being sometimes used. Daily or weekly values of the SOI do not convey much in the way of useful information about the current state of the climate, and accordingly the Bureau of Meteorology does not issue them. Daily values in particular can fluctuate markedly because of daily weather patterns, and should not be used for climate purposes.
so some of the ups and downs are surely just daily weather...

SOI is HIGHLY variable.

 It has 10-20 point differences in a single week sometimes, and its highly susceptible to local weather.   That is why they average it over 30 days.  I have very little familiarity with this metric, but it is not like other metrics that people follow such as the ENSO or the PDO. 

My understanding is that a persistent negative SOI of -8 or lower, or a persistent positive SOI rating of +8  has a strong relationship to ENSO and El Nino/La Nina conditions, but that daily and weekly values are of little importance.  It appears to be a reactive condition, not a predictive condition.

 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on April 11, 2014, 10:39:38 AM
There it is... as expected.... Jisao PDO index has updated for March:
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 04:02:18 PM
werther,

Thanks for the PDO update for March.  Below, I provide the comparable information for 1997; which indicates that this key parameter is remaining slightly ahead of schedule this year as compared to that definitive El Nino year.

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65


I also note that the Kyle MacRitchie site still shows the daily Nino3.4 index to be above +0.5.

Furthermore, the information at the Dr Ventrice site linked below, indicates that the CCKW is on track to impact the 200-hPa winds at the Date Line by April 17-18, creating a condition favorable for transitioning to an full El Nino condition by the end of April.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html)


Finally, the attached image shows the MJO status for April 10 2014, which indicates a small downward fluctuation, but that the MJO is still proceeding rapidly eastward and should enter the Western Pacific region by mid-April and thus is on track to reach the Date Line by/before the end of the month (which if it were to occur would create a strong likelihood of the Walker Cell transitioning to an El Nino condition).

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 06:27:33 PM
Attached please fine a Jason2 image of local sea level anomaly related to the EKW for April 6 2014; which can be compared to the March 22 2014 image posted in Reply #445.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 11, 2014, 06:33:26 PM
nothing new in this post, just noting that MEI-index (used f.e. here by Tamino http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/how-fast-is-earth-warming/  (http://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/01/20/how-fast-is-earth-warming/)) has been expanded to 1950. Graph attached.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 11, 2014, 07:10:55 PM
I don't know if this would be of any use for anyone, though a dig through historic El Niño events in decades past unearthed a neat table of monthly Niño 3.4 values going back to 1856, but ending in 2000. Not sure how it escaped me all this time, but I wanted to share for everyone's own uses:

ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/nino34.long.latest
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 11, 2014, 08:10:04 PM
thanks, Deep Octopus, that one might one day end up in some temperature progression graph, though I'd have to expand it to present.

Maybe this has been mentioned already (can't keep up with all the threads), but Paul Roundy has interesting comparisons with past weather events and el Ninos here
http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/possible-major-el-nino-developing-and-our-wild-winter/2953/ (http://blog.timesunion.com/weather/possible-major-el-nino-developing-and-our-wild-winter/2953/)
and
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/lowfrequencyanalogs.pdf (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/lowfrequencyanalogs.pdf)
asking if el Ninos might be possible to prognosticate from weather patterns already the previous winter.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 11, 2014, 11:58:57 PM
Both of the attached images make it clear that the CCKW is at the equator near 155E on April 11 2014, and it is projected to strengthen somewhat as it travels eastward.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 12:29:06 AM
With the coming of the 2014 typhoon season, some may enjoy reviewing the linked article by Jeff Masters about the anatomy of a super typhoon:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/anatomy-of-a-super-typhoon/ (http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/anatomy-of-a-super-typhoon/)

You may also want to review the following link about Super Cyclone Ita:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/11/3425731/cyclone-ita/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/11/3425731/cyclone-ita/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 01:14:25 AM
The attached Jason 2 Sea Surface Height Anomaly, SSHA, for the period from April 1 to April 11, 2014, shows that the EKW has continued traveling eastward and is now piling-up against South America:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 01:28:36 AM
I thought that I would note that a positive Antarctic Oscillation, AAO, index supports the teleconnection of energy by atmospheric Rossby waves from the Tropical Pacific to Western Antarctica, and the attached AAO index as of April 11 2014 shows that the AAO has been continuously positive since the third week in March.  This can result in a warmer Western Antarctic and accelerated ice mass loss with associated greater sea level rise.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 01:31:45 AM
The attached satellite image for April 11 2014 shows that the cloud cover is increasing currently at the Equatorial Pacific near the Date Line; which one requirement for flipping the Walker Cell into an El Nino condition:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 01:38:41 AM
The attached image from the following link, shows that the projected surface winds from now until the end of the forecast in July 2014 has sustained equatorial westerly winds west of the Date Line, indicating that the Walker Cell is very likely to transition into an El Nino condition shortly:

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhovs.php?bknum=4&lat=75S75N (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/macritch/showhovs.php?bknum=4&lat=75S75N)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 01:43:28 AM
The attached image of projected winds at 200-hPa (from now until the end of the projection in July) indicates sustained easterly winds west of the Date Line, and sustained westerly winds east of the Date line, indicating that the Walker Cell will likely transition into an El Nino pattern shortly:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 02:59:45 AM
The SOI for April 12 2014 became less negative and is now at -8.1 (see attached image), because the incoming daily SOI was meaningfully positive and the out-going daily SOI was meaningfully negative.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 11:42:41 AM
The attached earth wind map for April 12 2014 at 250-hPa, clearly shows that the top of the Walker Cell is beginning to transition into an El Nino condition as the MJO approaches the Equatorial Western Pacific.

Here is the link to this image:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/12/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-208.25,-0.62,533 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/12/1800Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-208.25,-0.62,533)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: From Lima(Peru) on April 12, 2014, 05:40:27 PM
The core of the (Kelvin) wave is approaching my country:

[img][http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml/img]

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 07:30:45 PM
The attached chart for April 12 2014 (from the BoM) indicates that the MJO appears to be slowing down and weakening as it approaches the Equatorial Western Pacific.  As the CCKW is approaching the Date Line this response of the MJO is not unexpected (see Reply #540) as the CCKW is modulated in association with the MJO as they travel eastward.  Based on the performance of the MJO earlier this year, it would not be unexpected for the MJO to continue to weaken as it approaches the Equatorial Western Pacific (say by April 14 2014) and then to strengthen as it approaches the Date Line (say by the end of April).  It will be interesting to watch the Walker Cell as we move through this period of transition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 07:54:53 PM
The first attached chart is from the following link and shows that on April 12 2014 the CCKW activity at 200 hPa (the top of the Walker Cell) was centered between 150 and 160E:

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html)

The second image shows the earth surface wind map for April 12 2014, which shows that the influence of the CCKW has: (a) suppressed the trade winds back to about 160W, and (b) is helping to form a monsoon trough new of New Guinea that may facilitate the development of stronger westerlies in the Equatorial Western Pacific in the coming days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 12, 2014, 08:12:37 PM
The first attachment is an animation of NOAA's Equatorial Pacific Temperature Anomalies through April 8 2014; which shows that the EKW is slowly continuing to surface.  While the second attached image only shows the EKW on April 8 2014, which indicates that the submerged zone of the temperature anomaly that is above 6 degrees C is slowly continuing to expand (as compared to April 3rd).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 13, 2014, 12:42:23 AM
7 C anomalies have begun to show up at 105 meters beneath the surface.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq2_anm_105m.gif&hash=484ab7e037c1a664652c8917e2aeae3b)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2014, 02:34:31 AM
The daily Long Paddock station reading increased markedly on April 12 (see below), and as Cyclone Ita may be affecting these pressure differences I am inclined to wait a week or so before attributing too much long-term meaning to the change in the 30-day moving average for the SOI for April 13 2014 issued by the BoM which has a value of -6.6:

Date                       Tahiti      Darwin     Daily Long Paddock station reading
April 12 2014        1013.66    1007.20                     29.34
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 13, 2014, 07:39:11 AM
Deep Octopus said:
Quote
a dig through historic El Niño events in decades past unearthed a neat table of monthly Niño 3.4 values going back to 1856, but ending in 2000. Not sure how it escaped me all this time, but I wanted to share for everyone's own uses:

ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/nino34.long.latest

Right, I've checked this against MEI (for the applicable parts), and it looks fairly similar to this (measuring the same thing, unlike some ENSO-indexes I've found). Calling this the Kaplan series.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2014, 11:08:46 AM
I thought that it would be helpful to post the following quote from Wikipedia about the link between ENSO and MJO events:

"There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982-1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the surface easterly winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina. Globally, the inter annual variability of the MJO is most determined by atmospheric internal dynamics."

I have used bold font for the text that is particularly relevant to our current situation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2014, 07:05:41 PM
While our current EKW may be most similar to the 1997-98 event, my last post with the Wikipedia quote of the ENSO-MJO link, does cite how quickly the 1982-83 El Nino accelerated late in the season; which is a reminder that the MJO travels around the Earth every 30 to 60-days and can build-up an El Nino over a series of MJO events, even relatively late in the season as occurred in 1982-83.  The following tables give the Nino3.4 and the PDO values for the 1982-83 event; which to me indicates that by January 1983 the Nino3.4 built-up to +3.01, even after starting later than our current EKW and starting with less favorable PDO values:

NINO3.4 SST anomalies:
Monthly values for the NINO3.4 SST index (5N-5S, 170-120W). Data were obtained from Kaplan's OS SST data at URL:
 http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.Indices/ (http://ingrid.ldgo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.KAPLAN/.Indices/)
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr    May   Jun   Jul    Aug   Sep   Oct   Nov   Dec
1982  0.36  0.06  0.09  0.39  0.99  1.33  1.14  1.33  1.78  2.27  2.46  2.78
1983  3.01  2.62  1.98  1.35  1.40  0.90  0.12 -0.09  0.05 -0.61 -0.72 -0.83

PDO INDEX
http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest (http://www.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest)
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar    Apr     May   Jun   Jul     Aug    Sep   Oct    Nov   Dec
1982  0.34  0.20  0.19 -0.19  -0.58 -0.78  0.58  0.39   0.84  0.37 -0.25 0.26
1983  0.56  1.14  2.11  1.87   1.80  2.36   3.51  1.85   0.91  0.96  1.02 1.69
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2014, 07:18:19 PM
The first attached image shows that the April 12 2014 MJO has continued to decrease as it slowly travels eastward towards the Western Pacific; and as I stated previously it is possible that this decrease may be being modulated by the CCKW shown in the second and third attachments for April 13 2014 to be somewhere between 160 and 170W, where it is suppressing the trade winds to east of the Date Line (see the third image).  It is possible that when the CCKW passes the Date Line the MJO may intensify (which might send another EKW pulse to reinforce the tail end of the current EKW).  While the behavior of MJO's (and CCKW's) is hard to project, we can expect another pass of the MJO through the Western Pacific sometime from late May to early July.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 13, 2014, 07:46:57 PM
The attached rainfall and 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly map from Michael Ventrice's site (see link below) for April 13 2014, indicates that the current CCKW is relatively intense with a large about of thunderstorm activity; which as it travels eastward to the Date Line, may (or may not) have a lasting impact on the Walker Cell:

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/ (http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 12:54:08 AM
First, in the following linked reference Paul Roundy shows that regarding the relationship between CCKWs (Kelvin Waves) and MJO that: "…..Kelvin waves and the MJO are not dynamically distinct modes. Instead, signals consistent with Kelvin waves become more consistent with the MJO as the associated convection intensifies."
Roundy, Paul E., 2012: Observed Structure of Convectively Coupled Waves as a Function of Equivalent Depth: Kelvin Waves and the Madden–Julian Oscillation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2097–2106. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-03.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-03.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-12-03.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JAS-D-12-03.1)

Furthermore, the attached figure (from the following NCEP/NOAA site) shows that the current CCKW (atmospheric Kelvin Wave) is relatively intense (note that the indicated 200 hPa Velocity Potentials in the area of the CCKW through April 10 2014, are higher than at any time in the past 6 months) and therefore closely associated with the MJO trailing behind it.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/vpot_tlon.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/vpot_tlon.shtml)


Finally, the second linked reference Kim et al (2013) compared five GCM reanalyses with actual observations of CCEWs and showed that " …. all the reanalyses have significant deficiencies in representing convectively coupled equatorial waves and variability in the high-frequency range."  This supports the consideration that we should not put too much confidence into long-term ensemble mean ENSO forecasts where a possible Super El Nino is involved (such as our current case) that may be amplified by CCKW & MJO events.

Kim, Ji-Eun, M. Joan Alexander, 2013: Tropical Precipitation Variability and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves on Submonthly Time Scales in Reanalyses and TRMM. J. Climate, 26, 3013–3030. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00353.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00353.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00353.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00353.1)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 02:54:36 AM
The attached 30-day average SOI value for April 14 2014 has continued to become less negative and is now -5.8
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 14, 2014, 03:46:11 AM
NOAA's late 2014/2015 prediction seems the most accurate.


SOI is proving to be an outlier, and the CCKW is proving to be minimal as it bumps up against cold water.  Perhaps the MJO will introduce an eforcement, but so far, the prediction of enso nuetral to small el nino seem to be predominanting. 

I do not see a super el nino in the future.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on April 14, 2014, 04:31:11 AM
El Ninos do tend to peak in N. Hem. winter (Dec.-Feb.), but I would be careful with the statement of continued neutral conditions.

The thermocline is still rapidly deepening along the equatorial E. Pac. and this is quite important. What separates fluctuations from a real Nino is the fact that, once this vastly deepened thermocline is in place, any upwelling causes warm water to come to the surface, instead of (normally) cold water. This is what gives a true Nino event its staying power. The earliest stages are the most fragile, but we are beyond that now, since this very strong EKW is shoaling on the shores of South America. This warm surface water interacts with the atmosphere by driving increases in heat and evaporation, most commonly released via deep convection, which, in sufficient quantity and in the right location, help "prick the bubble" of the Walker circulation. If you'll notice, there's been a persistent bubble of positive SST anomalies right near the dateline for some weeks now. This has driven persistent convection in that area and helped weaken the trades, driving further warming. For reference, the last big east-based Nino (97-98) featured the same anomaly at this stage. With time, persistent +SST anomalies will do the same further east as that enormous EKW surfaces.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 03:51:41 PM
The first attached image shows that the MJO (RMM) index through April 13 2014 was almost unchanged from the April 12 2014 value and location.  The second attached image of the 200-hPa velocity potential anomaly shows that the CCKW is starting to weaken as it approaches the Date Line.  We will see whether the expected decrease in the CCKW modulates an associated increase in the MJO over the coming weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 04:00:47 PM
Normally deep octopus posts the following NOAA weekly Nino Indices values; however, as the Nino3.4 value of +0.2 is less than what I thought that the daily values posted by Kyle MacRitchie indicated, I thought that I would post these values indicating that we are still in a neutral ENSO condition.

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA   SST SSTA   SST SSTA    SST SSTA
 26MAR2014    25.4-0.7     27.6 0.4     27.6 0.2     29.0 0.7
 02APR2014     25.2-0.7     27.8 0.5     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.7
 09APR2014     24.9-0.8     27.6 0.1     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.7

That said I concur with Csnavywx that the EKW is far too advanced for the neutral condition to remain for very long; and we will see what the latest MJO/CCKW does by the end of April or the beginning of May.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 04:09:29 PM
For reference I provide the attached Nino Indices plots through April 14 2014 by Kyle MacRitchie, which does show that the Nino3.4 has dipped in the past several days; however, due to the small scale it was not clear to me that the Nino3.4 had dipped sufficient to result in a weekly average centered on April 9 of +0.2.  In any event it is a long ways to go to the end of the boreal summer before we will have a clear idea of how many MJO/CCKW equatorial waves and how many tropical storms/typhoons occur that might boost the current condition into a super status.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 14, 2014, 04:23:01 PM
I tend to agree with Csnavywx on the grounds that the deepening thermocline is evidence of a reenforcing feedback. ASLR has posted some El Niño animations by Columbia University before, regarding Rossby and Kelvin waves, but the visualization of the transfer of warm water to the east and the consequent sea level rise in the east is akin to lifting up a blanket from one end and then rapidly pulling it down. Doing so causes the opposite end of the blanket to lift up. That is a basic but effective explanation of the physical wave motion behind El Niño. Since EKWs propagate at a sluggish 2-3 meters/second, we barely notice this, but it is occurring right now. The slope in sea level between the western Pacific and the eastern Pacific has lessened, and this is helping to tip more warm water east.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwksl_anm.gif&hash=8b7cba315734850bef457633339e708c)

Generally, it would take a sudden intrusion of cool water to interrupt El Niño. That's why 2012 never made it to a full-fledged El Niño. No cool Kelvin waves are at yet present, and even then, would take another few months to move east as this warm one has. Since the subsurface now has a large budget of heat to expend, it's about to go somewhere, either into the atmosphere or reserved in the ocean for another--possibly more brutal--El Niño event. This is, in effect, what Robert Scribbler expounded upon in his blog posts earlier, with respect to how the strongest trade winds on record were recorded in 2010, piling warm water in the west for years and years. Instead, much of that heat appears to be ready to vent to the atmosphere now, given the shoaling of warm water off of South America, with no obvious intrusions.

It will take months to play out. But I do not at all doubt the existence of the vast amount of energy that is waiting in the wings. I see a moderate El Niño at the minimum, with rather good potential for a strong one.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 04:25:08 PM
The attached NOAA SST anomaly plot for April 14 2014 shows that both the PDO and the IPO indices remain firmly positive, and that as the EKW continues to surface the blue areas in the eastern portion of the equatorial zone will gradually turn red.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 14, 2014, 04:43:22 PM
El Ninos do tend to peak in N. Hem. winter (Dec.-Feb.), but I would be careful with the statement of continued neutral conditions.

The thermocline is still rapidly deepening along the equatorial E. Pac. and this is quite important. What separates fluctuations from a real Nino is the fact that, once this vastly deepened thermocline is in place, any upwelling causes warm water to come to the surface, instead of (normally) cold water. This is what gives a true Nino event its staying power. The earliest stages are the most fragile, but we are beyond that now, since this very strong EKW is shoaling on the shores of South America. This warm surface water interacts with the atmosphere by driving increases in heat and evaporation, most commonly released via deep convection, which, in sufficient quantity and in the right location, help "prick the bubble" of the Walker circulation. If you'll notice, there's been a persistent bubble of positive SST anomalies right near the dateline for some weeks now. This has driven persistent convection in that area and helped weaken the trades, driving further warming. For reference, the last big east-based Nino (97-98) featured the same anomaly at this stage. With time, persistent +SST anomalies will do the same further east as that enormous EKW surfaces.

I respectfully disagree about our current conditions and their similarities with 97-98.  That's not to say that things cannot change, and no one really knows for sure, but I believe 97-98 had a much bigger head-start on our current conditions. 

See the attached imaging depicting SSTA centered on the April 09th date for both 1997 and 2014. here is a link (http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&ptype=map&dir=) to the image generator from provided by NOAA.

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 04:47:43 PM
The two attached images are from NOAA's weekly ENSO report.
The first image shows the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) for each of the four weeks; which indicate to me that the current neutral Nino3.4 index is primarily due to the shape of the EKW and the period of relatively low WWBs from mid-March through the first week in April.  However, as the second attached image shows a period of renewed WWBs in the Western Equatorial Pacific (due to the CCKW), and as the EKW is continuing to surface; I would be surprised if the weekly Nino3.4 does not exceed +0.5 by the first week in May.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 05:15:20 PM
ChasingIce,

You make a good point that our current ENSO condition is different from the 1997-98 event, and that in a chaotic system it is not possible to make precise predictions as to how things will unfold.  Nevertheless, as I have said before uncertainty cuts both ways, and while it is possible that our current EKW will only result in a weak to moderate El Nino event by the end of summer; I also maintain that there is a comparable possibility that there will be a strong El Nino by the end of summer, as demonstrated by the information that I posted in Reply #581 showing that the 1982-83 Super El Nino also got to a slow start at the beginning of the season, but grew to a Nino3.4 index value of just over +3 by January 1983.  Furthermore, your SSTA plot for the week centered on April 9 2014 shows a very strong IPO index value, and as the 1982-83 event occurred at the beginning of about a 15-year positive IPO cycle, and that I believe that we are now entering another such positive IPO cycle; I suspect that we should not be surprised to see our current ENSO event to follow the 1982-83 example as a late starter, but a strong finisher.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 06:07:37 PM
For those who have lost track of the influence of the IPO on the ENSO behavior I repost the attached image from England et al clearly indicating that the 1982-83 El Nino occurred near the beginning of a positive IPO cycle.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on April 14, 2014, 06:21:31 PM
ChasingIce,

I believe there is an error in your posted data.

Using the same tool, I got something completely different for 09April1997. I will have to post it when I get home since my work computer will not allow me to post it.

For a sanity, check, TAO data for the month of April 1997:

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97_16.html (http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97_16.html)


Edit: I was able to reproduce your graphs, more or less. It looks like you used a lengthy time mean for both of them (or at least the 1997 graph). You can't do that with 2014 data and make an apples to apples comparison to 1997 data since the mean is t+x steps into the future from the date chosen (t); not t-x (into the past from the date chosen). There isn't any future data to roll into the mean for 2014, so you only get 1 day, whereas there are many time steps into the future averaged together on the April 1997 graph. Also, I believe the time steps used are 7-day intervals, meaning t+30 is actually 30 weeks. In addition, the color scale at the bottom tends to change with each new plot.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on April 14, 2014, 06:47:00 PM
ChasingIce,

I don't want to sound overly harsh, so I apologize if my last post came off that way. It's good to have a skeptical mind and I appreciate having someone around who will challenge the prevailing POV. After all, that's part of what science is about. I just want to make sure we have the data straight before we bust up what could be a perfectly decent analysis!
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 06:56:36 PM
For what it is worth, for the single day of April 9 1997 for an unadjusted SSTA (without averaging) the tool that ChasingIce provided gave me the first attached plot.

Edit:
For ease of comparison I provide the same single day of April 9 2014 for an unadjusted SSTA (without averaging) in the second attached image (note the difference of scale in the two images).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 14, 2014, 07:54:59 PM
Here's OSPO anomaly charts, with the same interval scales and continua.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F1997%2Fanomnight.4.12.1997.gif&hash=0d60677e0edbd7bde83425ff2064bdc3)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.4.14.2014.gif&hash=3c6e75a4feb7a62a0df76cbeb9cef5db)

Nino 3.4 index from NOAA also shows April 9, 1997 with +0.2 C, the same as April 9, 2014. I know I'm being pedantic, but in this regard, the difference between the two years is imperceptible to me.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 07:56:54 PM
The accompanying two images indicate that on April 14 2014 the leading edge of the CCKW has reached the Date Line.  The first attached image show both the rainfall and the 200-hPa velocity wind potential anomaly; while the second attached image shows the winds at 250-hPa.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 14, 2014, 08:13:00 PM
ChasingIce,

I believe there is an error in your posted data.

Using the same tool, I got something completely different for 09April1997. I will have to post it when I get home since my work computer will not allow me to post it.

For a sanity, check, TAO data for the month of April 1997:

http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97_16.html (http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/en97/en97_16.html)


Edit: I was able to reproduce your graphs, more or less. It looks like you used a lengthy time mean for both of them (or at least the 1997 graph). You can't do that with 2014 data and make an apples to apples comparison to 1997 data since the mean is t+x steps into the future from the date chosen (t); not t-x (into the past from the date chosen). There isn't any future data to roll into the mean for 2014, so you only get 1 day, whereas there are many time steps into the future averaged together on the April 1997 graph. Also, I believe the time steps used are 7-day intervals, meaning t+30 is actually 30 weeks. In addition, the color scale at the bottom tends to change with each new plot.

the time scale has to be extended for 1997 in order to get the scale at the bottom to be somewhat close.  I was going to go with the default image, but it is simply too hard to correlate the 2 images.  The Eastern SSTA anomaly in 1997 actually started back in February.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 14, 2014, 08:15:30 PM
Here's OSPO anomaly charts, with the same interval scales and continua.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F1997%2Fanomnight.4.12.1997.gif&hash=0d60677e0edbd7bde83425ff2064bdc3)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.4.14.2014.gif&hash=3c6e75a4feb7a62a0df76cbeb9cef5db)

Nino 3.4 index from NOAA also shows April 9, 1997 with +0.2 C, the same as April 9, 2014. I know I'm being pedantic, but in this regard, the difference between the two years is imperceptible to me.

while only looking at 3.4, I tend to agree, however when you look at nino 1+2, the difference is apparent.  There was a large warming pool already piled up on the Coast of South America, and pushing eastward.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 14, 2014, 08:20:14 PM
ChasingIce,

I don't want to sound overly harsh, so I apologize if my last post came off that way. It's good to have a skeptical mind and I appreciate having someone around who will challenge the prevailing POV. After all, that's part of what science is about. I just want to make sure we have the data straight before we bust up what could be a perfectly decent analysis!

fully noted!  I much like this forum, as it the most scientific in nature (and less political). 

As I've stated before, I'm ROOTING for a strong El Nino as that would tend to overcome our current drought conditions in Southern California.  Unfortunately, it will probably have a poor effect on Arctic Ice. 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 08:52:43 PM
Not to get carried away with comparing our current condition with those of 1997, but as noted earlier in this thread, Super Typhoon Isa occurred from April 12 to April 24 2014; while the accompanying series (in this post & the next) of WunderMap forecasts from April 19 to April 29 indicate the possibility of another typhoon forming along a storm track similar to that of Isa:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 08:54:08 PM
Here is the rest of the series from the prior post.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 14, 2014, 08:56:16 PM
For ease of comparison here is a figure showing the Super Typhoon Isa track and the WunderMap link:

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 (http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on April 15, 2014, 12:12:00 AM


the time scale has to be extended for 1997 in order to get the scale at the bottom to be somewhat close.  I was going to go with the default image, but it is simply too hard to correlate the 2 images.  The Eastern SSTA anomaly in 1997 actually started back in February.

I gotcha. Yeah, I wish there was a way to make that scale static when generating multiple images. It would help comparison considerably. Otherwise it's a pretty nice tool.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2014, 01:28:27 AM
I thought that I would post the two attached images from the University of Albany vorticity & wind forecast for April 21 & 22, respectively as the show the potential tropical storm in the Equatorial Western Pacific in roughly the same position as the WunderMap forecast does.  Furthermore, I would like to note that the forecasted storm track for this possible event appears to be coinciding both with the possible arrival of the MJO in the Equatorial Western Pacific, and also with the northern side of a possible monsoon trough that may be forming now north of New Guinea.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2014, 04:03:00 AM
The attached image shows the 30-day moving average SOI through April 15 2014 (Sydney time) which continues to become less negative with a value of -4.3.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2014, 04:47:16 PM
This is an update of the CCKW / MJO interaction status for April 15 2014:

The first image (from Ventrice) shows the current and forecasted (1 & 2 weeks) convective activity for the CCKW showing that the leading edge that had reached the Date Line yesterday has dissipated while the trailing edge has yet to reach the Date Line.  This image illustrates how the range of the CCKW reaches to the eastern edge of the Maritime Continent.

The second image (also from Ventrice) shows both the precipitation pattern and the 200-hPa velocity potential for the CCKW for today, and this pattern closely matches that of the first image.

The third image shows the earth wind map wind pattern for this morning at 250-hPa showing that the center of the CCKW has now reached the Date Line.
 
The fourth image shows the MJO 90-day record indicating that the MJO is essentially unchanged from yesterday both in location and magnitude (possibly waiting for the heart of the CCKW to pass the Date Line).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 15, 2014, 05:28:49 PM
Is it just me or is it really a new WWB starting up in WPAC? Given TAO the wind anomalies have grown more positive in WPAC now.. However, we are waiting for the winds to become more positive around date line to see things really happening..

I have just like you ASLR, noticed that there are some kind of possibility that another TC will form in the beginning of next week. However, this TC isn't seen in ECMWFs forecasts so we'll have to wait and see until the models converge more. It's however interesting to notice that GFS have the aforemented TC stronger in their latest run with a MSLP around 998 hPa at +180 hours... The next run (12z) will be interesting to look at! And so will the ECMWF 12z forecast...

Recalling the SOI, I consider the value of -4,3 as a consequence of the now dissolved powerful cat 4 Ita..
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 15, 2014, 08:14:25 PM
Lord Vader,

I believe that the first attached image of surface winds from earth wind map show sufficient westerlies in the Equatorial Western Pacific to qualify as a weak WWB, with the CCKW holding the trade winds at bay at the date line.

The second attached image from the University of Albany vorticity & surface wind forecast for April 23 2014 still shows the possibility of a tropical storm in the Equatorial Western Pacific near the time when the MJO may be passing through this area.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2014, 03:10:26 AM
While the Long Paddock station daily SOI value was negative for April 15, nevertheless the value exiting the 30-day moving average was even more negative, so the BoM SOI value continued to become less negative with a value of -3.3 for April 16 2014, as shown in the first attached image.

Furthermore, probably due to the CCKW, the equatorial cloudiness is greater than it has been in at least 3 years (see the second attached image).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2014, 03:26:38 AM
Getting back to Lord Vader's question about WWB's, the attached image from NCEP/NOAA issued April 15 2014, shows that the 850-hPa Velocity Potential has been as high since the CCKW entered the Western Pacific as it has been at anytime in the past 6 months.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2014, 03:48:22 AM
The attached BoM weekly Nino3.4 for the week ending April 13 2014 has a value of +0.32 per the attached image.  This is higher than the NOAA value of +0.2 for the week centered on April 9 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2014, 12:16:02 PM
While Cyclocane does not have any Pacific tropical storms in its 48-hr forecast from April 16 2014 (Sydney time), still the first attached image of Cyclocane's tropical storm probability map does identify two candidate areas on the northside of a possible monsoon trough, and the second attached image of the earth surface wind map taken about 12-hrs after the Cyclocane forecast shows that at least one of the candidate area is gaining more definition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 16, 2014, 12:22:10 PM
I thought that some would be interested in seeing the other BoM Nino indices for the week ending April 13 2014.  The attached images are for Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4, respectively.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 16, 2014, 10:32:50 PM
Hello everybody!

It's dark outside and I haven't got any egg yet but I do have some interesting views to share with you! After having studied the latest http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh) my opinion is that a WWB is gathering strength in the area 170W-160W and that the area just around and right east of the date line with negative anomalies finally may be replaced by more westerly winds.. This should be in accordance with MJO...

When it comes to the possibility of tropical cyclones the odds seems to have gone down somewhat. GFS are still indicating a possible TD or weak TS but that's not as apparent as in earlier runs...

Happy Easter people! :D

//LMV 8)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 12:03:34 AM
The first attached image (from NOAA) shows that the MJO is relatively weak, but that it has finally entered the Equatorial Western Pacific (North of New Guinea) in an area where it has gained strength in the past.

The second attached image shows the past & forecast 200-hPa winds (per Kyle MacRitchie), showing that CCKW's power has not been dissipated.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 02:24:51 AM
While the Long Paddock station day SOI value was more negative today than yesterday, still the BoM 30-day moving average is less negative for April 17 2014 at a value of -2.4, because the values leaving the moving average was larger than the incoming value.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 02:35:06 AM
Cyclocane has just issued the following tropical depression warning in an area close to that predicted by the University of Albany:

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.5N 149.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE, ALBEIT
FRAGMENTED, BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN FLANKS. AN ARC OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 161022Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS 05 DEGREES SOUTH
OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER, THE EIR LOOP ALSO SHOWS A GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. NUMERIC MODELS DO NOT
PREDICT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 02:29:43 PM
Cycloncane has increased to medium the probability that the tropical depression near 9.5N 149E will transition to a tropical storm within less than 24-hrs.

Furthermore, the first attached image of the University of Albany vorticity & wind 180-hr forecast for April 24 2014, shows that the current tropical depression near 9.5N 149E has intensified and more northeast of the Philippines, and it has been joined by two other tropical disturbances that together form a WWB from  120E to 170E.

Finally, the second attached image from the BoM shows that the MJO RMM index for April 16 2014 has increased (possibly modulated by the current decrease in the CCKW) as it gradually moves eastward (look at the dark blue line).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 02:36:41 PM
The attached sea surface temperature anomaly, SSTA, for April 17 2014, indicates to me that the EKW is still slowly surfacing, and most importantly, to me, the EKW seems to have stopped the upwelling need the Galapagos and soon may transmit an new CTW (coastal trapped Kelvin wave) southward to re-disrupt the Humboldt Current.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 02:42:42 PM
The attached NOAA subsea temperature profile & anomaly for April 13 2014, shows that the EKW is continuing to surface and should provide favorable conditions for the current MJO to convert the Walker Cell to an El Nino condition if/when the MJO reaches the Date Line sometime between one to two weeks from now.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 03:48:43 PM
For those who have trouble seeing the Wheeler & Hendon 90-day version of the MJO RMM chart, I attach NOAA's 40-day version, showing that the MJO has only slightly gained strength.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Laurent on April 17, 2014, 04:17:05 PM
Hello AbruptSLR

What you call the date line is the 180° longitude ? or something else ?

Laurent
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 17, 2014, 04:43:54 PM
Another increase (decreased OLR) in convective activity at the dateline, to the lowest in years, according to BOM. Likely the result of the MJO moving in, compounded with increasing likelihood of El Niño.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bom.gov.au%2Fclimate%2Fmjo%2Fgraphics%2Fregion.ts.dateline.gif&hash=b7a5e0dae5cdff281a7f3dfd4f874f15)

Laurent, I believe the "date line" has been used here (or at least as I've used it) to describe the 180° longitude dividing the east and west hemispheres, even though the date line in other contexts is an artificial construct that has been moved around in times past (recently, Samoa wanted it moved east for economic purposes.) At least along the equator, the date line is in fact at the 180° longitude.

Apparently, BOM's OLR charts (shown above) use the region between 170 E and 170 W for a proximate to the "date line." So, the take away would be that it's used to generally describe the east/west hemisphere division.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 17, 2014, 05:36:00 PM
From Columbia University International Research Institute (IRI), model plumes are indicating a more than 60% chance of El Niño by summer 2014, with a 70-80% chance of development through autumn 2014 and persisting through winter 2014/2015.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BlbuL8uCMAA3lLT.png)

At this stage, we're waiting for some initial confirmation that we have in fact entered El Niño conditions, although the Niño 3.4 indices are hovering just below the threshold. I suspect it's taking a while, because the climatological average of the SST's rises through mid-May every year, and even though the Niño 3.4 region is technically getting warmer, it's not warming as fast as the climatological average is. Thus, the index is slow to move from a relative standpoint. This is essentially the mathematical explanation of the spring barrier. By mid-May, I expect the anomalies to begin yawning as the ocean stays warm while the climatology curve descends.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Fenso_update%2Fsst_c.gif&hash=64eb7054b9f23c6896456a12e42a38f2)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 10:08:18 PM
The following are daily SOI values for the Long Paddock station for the two ends of the 30-day moving SOI average.  It is clear that as large negative values are existing the 30-day average while small negative values are entering the average; therefore the moving average will be less negative when the BoM value is posted later today.

                       Long Paddock station
                        Daily SOI Value
March 19 2014              -30.73
April 17 2014                -4.62
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 17, 2014, 11:21:15 PM
The attached three images are from the following links, respectively.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif)
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.5S-5N.gif (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.200.anom.30.5S-5N.gif)
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/r.westpac.anom.30.5S-5N.gif (http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/r.westpac.anom.30.5S-5N.gif)

The first image is of the surface wind (850-hPa) anomalies; the second is for the 200-hPa wind anomalies and the third is of the rain anomalies (all between 5N & 5S in the Western Pacific).  These images give an idea of the expected transition from the CCKW to the MJO and give the idea that the MJO might reach the International Date Line (180o) sometime after April 24 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2014, 06:10:19 AM
Attached is the BoM 30-day moving average plot for April 18 2014 (Sydney Time) with a value of -1.4 which is less negative than yesterday, even though the current Long Paddock station daily SOI is negative.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2014, 06:26:35 AM
The attached image is the BoM's RMM diagram (from the following link) for the MJO for the past 40-day, issued April 17 2014, and when it is compared to the comparable NOAA diagram in Reply #626, it is seen that the BoM values for the MJO are considerably higher than those provided by NOAA since about April 10 2014.  As the BoM value is different than Wheeler & Hendon values given in Reply #623, it would probably be non-conservative to assume that the BoM 40-day plot is correct (but who knows?):

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2014, 04:24:06 PM
The first two Wheeler & Hendon MJO RMM diagrams issued April 18 for data through April 17 2014 show 90-day (by BoM) and 40-day (by NOAA) records, both of which show that the MJO stalled on April 17 and has approximately the same location and magnitude as it had on April 16 2014.  This behavior may be (or may not be) indicative of the modulation between the CCKW that is in the process of degrading, and the MJO which may be (or may not be) strengthening as is indicated in the third & fourth attached images of the 850-hPa, and the 200-hPa, wind anomalies, respectively, to April 18 with forecasts to April 25 by Ventrice.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 18, 2014, 04:45:26 PM
As can be seen by the limited table of daily Long Paddock station daily SOI values, below, the values leaving the 30-day moving average are very negative while the values entering the 30-day moving average are less negative.  Therefore, it is likely that today's 30-day moving average may be close to zero, even though the daily values are becoming increasingly negative.

      Long Paddock station
      Daily SOI Value
March 19 2014         -30.73
March 20 2014         -28.34
April 17 2014          -4.62
April 18 2014           -6.13

You can see the complete Long Paddock station information at the following link:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2014, 02:55:00 AM
The first attached image shows the BoM's MJO RMM plot for the past 40-days issued on April 18 2014; which shows the MJO progressing across the Equatorial Western Pacific (which is different than the NOAA plot shown in the previous post).

The second image of the 850-hPa winds (historical & forecast) between 7.5N & 7.5S; which indicates a good likelihood that once the current MJO passes; that the Walker Cell will be converted into an El Nino condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2014, 03:07:50 AM
As expected the attached 30-day moving average SOI value for April 19 2014 is close to zero (-0.3), and based in the daily Long Paddock station values it is likely that this trend will continue for at least one, or two, more day(s).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2014, 02:26:40 PM
The first attached image of the depth to the 20 degree C thermocline with time from NOAA to the period ending April 15 2014 shows that the EKW has almost displaced all of the cool pool of water that it had trapped along Ecuador's coast by translating this cool water to the south where it probably both: (a) disrupted to weak CTW along the Peruvian coastal, and (b) supplied more cool water to the Humboldt Current, which may have delayed to Nino3.4 index from passing the +0.5 value.

The second image (from earth wind maps from April 19 2014 of surface winds) shows that the tropical depression near 10N 140E is stable.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 19, 2014, 03:14:19 PM
The attached MJO record (following Wheeler & Hendon issued by the BoM through April 18 2014), indicates that the MJO has weakened significantly between the 17th & the 18th and has not moved eastward very much.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 03:17:24 AM
Cyclocane's April 19 2014 Tropical Storm forecast includes the following notice upgrading the risk of a Tropical Storm occurring in the Equatorial Western North Pacific:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N
143.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS FLARING AHEAD OF A WEAK, EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD NEAR THE
ISLAND OF YAP. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THIS LLCC HAS MOVED CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT SWATHS JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE SYSTEM INDICATE HIGHER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED, WITH 5-15 KNOT
WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSING THE
DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC, AND WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM YAP INDICATES VARIABLE
WINDS AT 4 KNOTS SUSTAINED. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AS HIGH AS 12 KNOTS GUSTING TO 22 KNOTS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY SHIFTED TOWARD DEVELOPING THIS
DISTURBANCE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THE LLCC TO BECOME COUPLED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION,
AND TC GENESIS INDICATIONS IN THE MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 03:23:15 AM
The attached MJO RMM chart from NOAA through April 18 2014, does not show such a significant reduction of the intensity of the MJO on April 18 [as indicated in the BoM chart in Reply #640], but instead show that the MJO has traveled westward (not eastward) from April 17 to April 18.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 03:36:25 AM
The attached SOI plot through April 20 (Sydney time) indicates that the SOI has become positive, ie: +0.7.  Below I also provide a link to the plot source:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 03:46:23 PM
First, the Cyclocane forecast still has a medium probability of a tropical storm/cyclone forming in the next 24-hrs in the Western North Pacific as follows:

WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.7N
139.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 56 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS TRACKING WESTWARD. THE MSI LOOP
ALSO SHOWS THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATES HIGHER WINDS (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG
THE WESTERN FLANK ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
LARGELY RAIN-FLAGGED;  A WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH SHOWS 5-15
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LLCC.
NUMERIC MODELS HAVE SCALED DOWN THE FORECAST INTENSITIES ON THIS
SYSTEM TO BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM."

Second, the Long Paddock station SOI daily value for April 20 2014 is +6.13, so we can expect the 30-day moving average to become more positive when BoM releases it.

Third, the first attached image shows an earth wind map for the surface winds showing two possible atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms in the Equatorial Western North Pacific.

Fourth, the second attached image shows an earth wind map at 200-hPa, showing that the EEKW is slowly dissipating near the date line, and that as it dissipates it appears to be shedding atmospheric features that could develop into tropical storms/typhoons.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 04:17:59 PM
While the various MJO Real-time Multivariate MJO, RMM, index plots do not current agree with each other, nevertheless, attached I provide the 90-day plot of the Wheeler & Hendon plot issued by the BoM, as it is the first such plot to be released.  This plot shows that on April 19 2014 the MJO moved westward (instead of the normal eastward) direction:

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 04:33:12 PM
The first attached image of the current first three EOFs of the AAO indicates that energy from the Tropical Pacific is currently being telecommunicated directly offshore of the Western Antarctic, where it is contributing to a warmer than average austral Fall in the Western Antarctic.  The second attached image gives the recent AAO values.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 20, 2014, 09:44:24 PM
According to the attached MJO RMM plot by NOAA through April 19 2014, between the 18th & 19th the MJO continued traveling westward and intensifies very slightly.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2014, 02:58:43 AM
The first attached image shows that the numerical value of the BoM MJO RMM index now essentially matches the NOAA value for April 19 2014.

The second attached image shows that the 30-day moving average is now up to +1.7
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2014, 03:31:15 PM
The following Nino index data from NOAA shows that the SSTA condition in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific has been largely unchanged for the past four weeks (including for the latest data for the week centered on April 16 2014):

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 26MAR2014     25.4-0.7     27.6 0.4     27.6 0.2     29.0 0.7
 02APR2014     25.2-0.7     27.8 0.5     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.7
 09APR2014     24.9-0.8     27.6 0.1     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.7
 16APR2014     24.8-0.7     27.7 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.1 0.6

Furthermore, the attached early MJO RMM plot shows that the MJO is continuing to travel westward and thus is not yet having much effect on WWBs or on the Walker Cell.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2014, 03:38:45 PM
To me, what is most important about the attached NOAA SSTA chart for April 21 2014 is that all of the cold water pool off the coast of Ecuador has now been displaced; which to my thinking means that the cold water input to the equatorial zone from the Humboldt Current should be diminishing in the future so that the Nino3.4 should be increasing again shortly.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2014, 03:52:52 PM
The first attached image from NOAA of the MJO RMM index plot through April 20 2014 confirms the trend indicated by the 90-day Wheeler & Hendon plot that I provided earlier (but with higher index values) that the MJO is still traveling westward without losing any strength.

The second attached image of the surface (850-hPa) velocity potential history by NOAA, indicates that the CCKW is still weakening near the Equatorial Date Line (180 degrees).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 21, 2014, 04:37:38 PM
The attached Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomaly graph is from the weekly NOAA ENSO summary issued April 21 2014, and shows that this anomaly is weakening slightly (possibly due to the relatively weak WWB activity in the Equatorial Western Pacific for the past several weeks).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2014, 03:08:52 AM
The attached BoM image indicates that for April 22 2014 the 30-day moving average SOI value is +2.2.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 22, 2014, 01:01:52 PM
Latest from the BOM

The likelihood of El Niño remains high, with all climate models surveyed by the Bureau now indicating El Niño is likely to occur in 2014. Six of the seven models suggest El Niño thresholds may be exceeded as early as July.
The Pacific Ocean has been warming along the equator over recent weeks, with continued warming in the central Pacific likely in coming months. Another burst of westerly winds is presently occurring in the western Pacific, and is likely to cause further warming of the sub-surface.


More here http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 22, 2014, 03:24:18 PM
We are currently in the third notable WWB since the Kelvin wave that is now warming the Pacific basin first appeared in the western Pacific. Strong WWBs occurred in late January, late February/early March, and the third one began in the last two weeks. Depending on how the MJO responds and as we enter the Pacific tropical typhoon season, the WWB activity could kick up again shortly.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Fenso_update%2Fu850_c.gif&hash=811a1bf8ad1b3f3a27f1b219be4988a0)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2014, 05:10:06 PM
Further to deep octopus's post, I would like to note that the 850-hPA (5N-5S) surface wind history plot that he posted, not only shows the recent WWB associated with the CCKW, but as shows the recent weakening of the trade winds.

Also, the first attached chart from NOAA shows that for April 21 2014 the MJO has weakened slightly but remains in the western part of the Equatorial Western Pacific, where it might (or might not) gain strength when it starts to travel eastward again.  Also, in order to explain the differences between the RMM values that NOAA posts versus those posted by the BoM, NOAA provides the following text:
"Below are images displaying the Climate Prediction Center version of the Wheeler and Hendon (2004) (hereafter WH2004) daily MJO index for both the last 40 and 90 days. The methodology followed at CPC is nearly identical to that outlined in the above reference and operationally displayed at the Australia Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC). Slight differences may occur at times due to subtle deviations in input data and methodology and mainly occur during weak MJO periods."

The second BoM plot of the Nino3.4 index to April 20 2014 shows that this index has increased to +0.34 (from +0.32 on April 13 2014), indicating that the EKW is continuing to surface (I also note that this value is appreciably higher than the corresponding NOAA value).

Finally, I note that the Long Paddock station daily SOI value for April 22 2014 is +5.48; which indicates that the 30-day moving average will continue to become more positive, but will remain in the "neutral" zone.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2014, 05:14:46 PM
Further to BFTV's report on the BoM's April 22 2014 ENSO update, I provide the BoM's plots for the Nino 1,2,3 and 4 indices for the week ending April 20 2014; which can be found by scrolling though the graphs located at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4 (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml?bookmark=nino3.4)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2014, 08:06:09 PM
The attached NOAA subsurface temperature and temperature anomaly profiles for the Equatorial Pacific for April 18 2014 (which you can compare to the image for April 13 shown in Reply #626), show that: (a) as the EKW slowly continues to surface, it appears to be weakening; and (b) a limited amount of new warm water from the Western Equatorial Pacific is slowly moving eastward to help reinforce the EKW presumably due to the WWBs associated with the recent CCKW.  This all indicates that in order for our current fledgling El Nino event to develop into a Super status, the Walker Cell will need to change into an El Nino configuration; which has not yet happened, but yet which may happen still sometime between early May and the end of July.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 22, 2014, 09:51:37 PM
I have not been able to find a site with real-time data for either the Kuroshio, or the Humboldt, Currents; however, the first attached figure from the following website, make it appear that a "contracted state" for the Kuroshio Extension appears to reinforce an El Nino condition:

http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/kuroshio.html (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/kuroshio.html)

The caption for the first attached image: "Standardized Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) over the Kuroshio region.  Blue shaded areas correspond to elongated states periods (1993-94, 2002-04 and 2010-11), while orange shaded areas fit contracted states periods  (1997-2001 and 2009)."

Extract from the site: "The Kuroshio Extension is characterized by a strong variability. This variability results in two rather different states of the Kuroshio Extension: an "elongated state" corresponding to a narrow strong steady jet vs a "contracted state" in which the jet is weaker and more unsteady, spreading on a wider latitudinal band. Between these two main states, the Kuroshio Extension has many neutral states of transition and presents either progressively weakening or strengthening trends. An indicator based on the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy (EKE) well checks these Kuroshio Extension states."

The caption for the second attached image is: "Yearly paths of the Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension (paths are plotted every 14 days). 1993-1994, 2002-2004 and 2010-2011 are "stable" years (paths are closer to each others, their lengths is shorter), while 1996-2001 and 2006-2008 show high unstability. The measurements of the length of the paths provides with an indicator of this stability. (Credits University of Hawaii at Manoa)."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 22, 2014, 10:19:04 PM
I found following interesting article http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059748/abstract) where they find a connection between the anomalous ridging in N. America and the many outbreaks of frigid air from Arctic this winter. equal interesting is that this weather pattern in the past have tended to be a precursor to a full fledged El Niño...

I'm also waiting for the new WWB to fuel more heat to the East! Interestingly, an eyelook at TAO/Triton seems to me that this new WWB is farther east compared with the ones in january and february... It may be so that a another WWB is underway in the Central/East Pacific around 145W..

And it's also worth to notify that the small area where there still are no westerlies around the date line is shrinking...

Sadly, there are no indications of a TC to develop in the WPAC.. :( However, there is a small possibility of a TC development southwest of Papua New Guinea at 8-9 deg south of equator. Regardless of development that disturbance may add a small contribution to the recent WWB..

My gut feeling (not very scientific(!)) is that the system is working overtime to prevent an El Niño to form and unleash a big surprise to our world... When that happens I will not be surprised if we are going to see a rapid increase in the global average temperature during the next decade or so...

//LMV
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2014, 03:28:45 AM
I am surprised to say that the 30-day moving average SOI for April 23 2014 (per the BoM) has become less positive and is now +1.9 as indicated in the attached plot.  This is surprising to me because the values leaving the moving average are still negative and the Long Paddock station daily SOI for April 22 was positive.  In any event, if the SOI were more negative than -8 then one would expect the trade winds to be weakening, but as has been indicated in earlier posts the trade winds are weakening anyway even though the SOI is technically neutral.  It will be interesting to see what the MJO and the SOI do over the next two to three weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 23, 2014, 05:53:01 AM
I am surprised to say that the 30-day moving average SOI for April 23 2014 (per the BoM) has become less positive and is now +1.9 as indicated in the attached plot.

surprised as well, since a 30-day average is fairly easy to compute, and the numbers are published daily.

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on April 23, 2014, 08:10:02 AM
For the mathematically minded:
There are a few different methods of how to calculate the SOI. The method used by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is the Troup SOI which is the standardised anomaly of the Mean Sea Level Pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin. It is calculated as follows:

 

                       [ Pdiff - Pdiffav ]
        SOI = 10 -------------------
                         SD(Pdiff)     
       
where
Pdiff   =   (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month),
Pdiffav   =   long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and
SD(Pdiff)   =   long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on April 23, 2014, 08:35:41 AM
The main difference, as far as I can note, would be that they use a different baseline.
Quote
The dataset the Bureau uses has 1933 to 1992 as the climatology period.

always funny how the BoM has to be such an outlier at times though. 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2014, 03:57:35 PM
Just for the record:

Long Paddock station April 23 2014 daily SOI = 19.54

While this jump may (or may not) be weather related, this large of an increase in the daily Long Paddock station value will certainly make the 30-day moving average more positive later today.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2014, 04:10:06 PM
The attached MJO RMM 40-day plot from NOAA, through April 22 2014, indicates that the MJO have moved appreciably moved eastward without changing its strength (which is currently weak).  I note that NOAA's ensemble mean forecast projects that the MJO will stay weak until after it passes east of the equatorial Date Line (180 degrees).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 23, 2014, 05:20:50 PM
It's been a while since I've reviewed the warm water volume (WWV) data. Current data shows that the WWV for the Pacific basin (120E to 80W; 5S to 5N) is 2.15*1014 m3 for April (thus far.) This remains the largest WWV since June 1997.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.pmel.noaa.gov%2Ftao%2Felnino%2Fwwv%2Fgif%2Fwwva_std.gif&hash=2f7c4a0880557dce6aced5e23225f7e4)

Despite NOAA reporting in its weekly updates that the upper ocean heat content has leveled and declined slightly in the eastern central Pacific (180W to 100W), overall Pacific basin upper ocean heat content has steadily grown, to its highest point since October 1997.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/t300.dat (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/wwv/data/t300.dat)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2014, 06:05:38 PM
Also, as indicated in the attached Nino Indices summary by Kyle MacRitchie, if the current trend holds, then it is likely that the Nino3.4 index may exceed +0.5 next week, just as it did in 1997.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 23, 2014, 08:47:31 PM
Yes, I believe we'll crack the elusive 0.5 C milestone soon. I'm a bit surprised how long it has taken after a strong finish to March, but I think, again, it may be this game of catch up with the climatology average even as Niño 3.4 continues to (nominally) warm. So the anomalies are still a bit muted. It took until April 23rd for 1997 to get above 0.5 C as well, so 2014 is still moving at a quick pace, all told.

Hat tip to Eric Holthaus for collaborating an interesting and comprehensive list of the possible responses to El Niño in 60 different locales around the world.

http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html (http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/future_tense/2014/04/el_nino_2014_2015_what_the_weather_pattern_means_for_60_plus_places.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Steven on April 23, 2014, 09:02:40 PM
Also, as indicated in the attached Nino Indices summary by Kyle MacRitchie, if the current trend holds, then it is likely that the Nino3.4 index may exceed +0.5 next week, just as it did in 1997.

I'm not sure how to interpret MacRitchie's graphs.  The dotted horizontal lines in the graphs correspond to the values 1.0 and 2.0.  So the anomaly values in his graph with title "SST 3.4" have constantly been above the threshold of +0.5 for the last few weeks.  This is obviously not compatible with the weekly Nino 3.4 indices that were reported by NOAA or BOM.

The values in MacRitchie's "SST 3.4" graph appear to deviate from the usual Nino 3.4 index, especially since late February/ early March.  The same seems to hold for his "SST 1+2" graph.  Perhaps it has something to do with the seasonal cycle that MacRitchie subtracts from the data.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on April 23, 2014, 09:04:36 PM
DO, thanks for that link and for the graph above (and really, we all owe a great debt to both you and ASLR for helping us keep on top of this stuff).

Joe Romm now has a post on the developing El Nino:

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/22/3429380/el-nino-global-warming-temperature-record/ (http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/04/22/3429380/el-nino-global-warming-temperature-record/)

And he promises more:

Quote
Since this El Niño could be the defining climate event for the next few years, Climate Progress will be reporting on it regularly.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 23, 2014, 10:05:49 PM
Steven,

MacRitchie has the following notice posted at his site: "I updated the algorithm to make these indices on Thursday, April 10th. The new algorithm brings them more in-line to the indices from CPC (although I still use daily data)."

Therefore, you should focus on the information after April 10, and you should consider carefully over what periods that the NOAA and the BoM average their week Nino3.4 values, as the MacRitchie values are only daily.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Steven on April 23, 2014, 11:42:33 PM
MacRitchie has the following notice posted at his site: "I updated the algorithm to make these indices on Thursday, April 10th. The new algorithm brings them more in-line to the indices from CPC (although I still use daily data)."

AbruptSLR, I also noticed this.  But it doesn't address what I wrote before.

I had a brief email conversation with Kyle MacRitchie to ask about this issue.  He was kind enough to reply: he agreed that his graphs are on the high side, but he doesn't know why exactly.

The fact that his graphs are on the high side, was also the reason why he updated his algorithm on April 10th.  The new version is "more in-line to the indices from CPC", but there are still substantial differences, even if you take into account that one is daily and the other is weekly.  See also his "SST 1+2" graph.

MacRitchie's update on April 10th was related to the seasonal cycle that is removed from the data, as described on this page (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/maps-help).  But this description is unclear to me.  I suspect something may be wrong with it, perhaps a change of baselines from February 28th/ March 1st (which is then "smoothed out" in the graphs), but this is just my own speculation, and it's almost midnight so I'll try to have another look tomorrow...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 12:48:25 AM
Steven,

Thanks for the great legwork, and it sounds like you are on the right track as certainly small differences in the seasonal baseline could account for the index differences that you have pointed-out.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 02:50:56 AM
Attached is today's 30-day moving SOI average for April 24 2014 with the value increasing to +2.2.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 03:37:34 PM
The 48-hr April 24 forecast by Cyclocane has identified a tropical disturbance in the Equatorial Western Pacific as follows:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 154.9E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.8N 154.3E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN
ILL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED BURSTS OF ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. MSI ALSO SHOWS A
RAPIDLY WEAKENING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 9.1N 153.0E,
WHICH IS DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE ACTUAL LLCC. A 232354Z METOP-B
IMAGE DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED WEST OF
THE POORLY-DEFINED, WEAK LLCC. A 232259Z ASCAT IMAGE INDICATES 10 TO
15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF 15 TO 20 KNOT EASTERLY
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

It will be interesting to see whether the eastward directed MJO reinforces this tropical disturbance, or not, as they approach each other in the next day, or so.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 03:50:22 PM
The following selected quotes come from "The Great Coral Grief" by Iain McCalman, Scientific American, May 2014 (also see The Reef: A Passionate History, by Iain McCalman, Scientific American Books, 2014):

"The next major spate of mass bleaching, between 1997 and 1998, hammered reefs in more than 50 countries, even among the hot-water corals of the Arabian Sea.  On the Great Barrier Reef, the bleaching coincided with the warmest sea temperatures ever recorded.  In an even worse mass-bleaching event in 2001-2002, the global damage also confirmed a close connection with El Nino weather cycles.  Catastrophic global warming had arrived. Peculiarly susceptible to increases in heat and light, corals were now alerting scientists to climatic changes.

Charlie's research told him that during El Nino weather cycles, the surface seawaters in the Great Barrier Reef lagoon, already heated to unusually high levels by greenhouse gas-induced warming, were being pulsed from a mass of ocean water known as the Western Pacific Warm Poll onto the reef's delicate living corals."

The SSTA off the eastern coast of Australia is already anomalously high, and if our current fledgling El Nino gains strength in the coming months, the situation for coral around the world will likely become much worse.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 24, 2014, 03:57:10 PM
The EKW surfacing off of South America is beginning to deflect north and south of the equator.

Compare the change in the last week...

April 17th
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomw.4.17.2014.gif&hash=d5840567a5a59d67baef3b746b43fc6d)

April 24th
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomw.4.24.2014.gif&hash=11c64d9e1b1fcf5945ad8e105ba495e7)

April 24th, full Pacific basin. A warm pool is forming off of the coast of the Americas as the EKW surfaces and spreads north and south. Continual movement of warm water to the south will assist in staunching the upwelling of cool, nutrient-rich water in the Humboldt Current. The Humboldt Current will also be further prevented from delivering cool water into the equatorial Pacific, and hasten development of El Niño.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.4.21.2014.gif&hash=4750f4a0247ea1ff468a951b271419d6)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 24, 2014, 05:17:04 PM
I'm occasionally still attempting various overlays, this time I think I got one correct, from maps provided by deep octopus, thank you. I think the trick to get changes properly visible is to change color mapping on *one* of the source images, changing the intensities of the colors as well, and *then* seeking values for other image attributes...
 
blues-violets - no big changes
red - switching to positive anomaly
yellow - switching to negative anomaly
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 05:24:37 PM
As NOAA is slow this morning to post its 40-day RMM plot, I attach the following 90-day Wheeler & Hendon (by BoM) RMM plot through April 23 2014; indicating that the MJO has slightly gained strength, and has slight slowed its rate of eastward progress, during the past day:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 08:26:43 PM
While the following data shows that the daily SOI value is relatively high, I suspect that this may well be related to the risk of a tropical disturbance forming right near Darwin as indicated by the attached image from the Cyclocane 48-hr tropical storm forecast issued April 24 2014

Long Paddock station April 24 2014 SOI = 20.55
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 09:47:05 PM
The attached image from NOAA of the latest Equatorial Eastern Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Content Anomalies indicates that these anomalies are continuing to decrease, confirming that the Walker Cell still needs to transition to an El Nino condition in order resupply the current EKW with more warm water from the Western Pacific, before a strong El Nino can develop:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 04:18:51 AM
Attached is today's 30-day moving average SOI plot with a value of +2.7
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 04:38:14 PM
First,  the attached Wheeler & Hendon 90-day RMM plot indicates that on April 24 2014 the MJO moved westward.

Second, the following Cyclocane 48-forecast indicates that the tropical disturbance near 7.9N 145.7E is remaining in about the same location as yesterday, so there is still a chance that it may interact with the MJO (when the MJO starts to move eastward again):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7N
145.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 454 NM EAST
OF YAP. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ILL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 251013Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS WEAK DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
BROADLY WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE
DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND GOOD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW."

Finally, as the tropical disturbance near Darwin remains intact, the Long Paddock station daily SOI values remain positive, so I guess that the 30-day moving average SOI value will trend up today.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 05:44:13 PM
The attached summary graph of weekly NOAA Nino3.4 index values (see the following link for the source) provides some idea of the timing of the failed 2012 El Nino event; which implies me that we still have at least a couple of months to go to see whether the Walker Cell finally transitions into an El Nino pattern (which would then strengthen the current fledgling El Nino):

http://weather.ninemsn.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34 (http://weather.ninemsn.com.au/climate/indicator_enso.jsp?c=nino34)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 05:51:14 PM
In the attached 40-day record of the RMM for the MJO, NOAA has revised their records to more closely match the Wheeler & Hendon 90-day RMM plot; which indicates both: (a) that the MJO is weaker than NOAA was previously reporting; and (b) on April 24 2014 the MJO moved westward, leaving it in a position to possibly interact with the tropical disturbance currently near 7.9N 145.7E.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 25, 2014, 06:22:12 PM
The EKW has nearly departed the subsurface, as it continues to rise to the surface far to the east at the Americas. The 155 meter depth chart of ocean temperatures shows that the very warm (up to 7 C) EKW that departed the western Pacific around the very end of last year is closing. A rebounding cool, upwelling Kelvin wave moving east would be the expected retaliation in this tit-for-tat oceanic choreography. Neither the pentad latitude-depth charts nor the time section charts show much yet. That's not to say that the pocket of somewhat cool water around 160E is innocuous. If it shows much development, it will pose a risk to the El Niño months down the road. If it fails, the odds of a protracted El Niño event increase. Either way, this will be worth watching. Interfering westerlies may rush enough warm water to dampen upwelling Kelvin waves.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq2_anm_155m.gif&hash=38e2b7c4b6a7b3ddce3ed6361f2f79f5)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 06:55:46 PM
Further to deep octopus's post, I provide the attached 105m and 55m temperature anomaly 2N-2S NOAA charts for April 20 2014, respectively.  These charts to not current show any temperature anomalies above 7 degrees C; but they do show the EKW is slowly surfacing as it interacts with South America.  Possibly as the EKW surfaces it may (or may not) increase the equatorial atmospheric humidity sufficiently in the Eastern Pacific to help suppress the trade winds enough to help transition the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern (also we should not forget that the Nino 3.4 SSTA measurement zone only extends from 170W to 120W):
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 07:14:47 PM
While weather forecasts are variable, the attached 78-hr forecast by the University of Albany for April 28 2014, indicates that the tropical disturbance near 7.9N and 145.7E may grow into a tropical storm within the next two to three days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 25, 2014, 09:32:24 PM
The feeling is that the atmosphere is working 200% to prevent a massiver El Niño event... It should be plausible that the 7 deg anomaly isn't fading but just at a different depth... After all, the wind anomalies according to PMEL/TAO have been positive for a while and finally, at last, they seem to be positive west of 125W.. The area between 165W-135W with positive wind anomalies is also showing no signs to abate which should be no disadvantage.. The fact is that they haven't been that positive the last 2 years..

Neither ECMWF or GFS are showing any real signs of TC activity the next 7-10 days :( I don't give the disturbance near 7,9N any nice odds for development, just 5-10%.. The odds are however increasing for every week now that we'll see a TC developing in WPAC...

The TAO data averaged five days are showing some discernible hints that the OHC is slowly increasing again, both around date line and 110W.. Look at: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cgi-tao/cover.cgi?P1=EQ&P2=uwnd&P3=anom&P4=heat&P5=anom&P6=hf&P7=Year&P8=Month&P9=Year&P10=Month&P11=off&script=jsdisplay/scripts/time-lon-jsd.csh)

Cheers, LMV :)

Some questions are interesting: what are the forecasts for MJO and CCKW?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 25, 2014, 10:17:12 PM
LMV,

The Tao data that you linked to makes it look like most of the Tao buoys have been repaired.  In response to your questions about MJO & CCKW forecasts:

The first image shows the ensemble mean MJO forecast by NOAA.
The second image shows the GFS forecast (blue line) by NOAA.
The third image by Ventrice indicates to me that the CCKW has either moved well east of the Date Line, and/or has weakened.

If you believe the forecasts then there is little chance that the Walker Cell will transition anytime in the next month.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Steven on April 25, 2014, 11:41:58 PM
AbruptSLR, regarding our discussion from a few days ago: Kyle MacRitchie emailed me that he found an error in his algorithm and he has now updated his graph for the Nino 3.4 region:

http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4 (http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/ensosst-3-4)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2014, 01:07:56 AM
Steven,

Thanks for the great coordination with Kyle MacRitchie.  Kyle must have changed is algorithm today because the attached image looks much different than this morning's version.  As it is still hard to read Kyle's graph, I will note that per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).  I guess we will learn on Monday what NOAA's weekly Nino3.4 value was for the week centered on April 23, so that we can get another calibration point to Kyle's plots.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: From Lima(Peru) on April 26, 2014, 02:10:40 AM
Useful link to IMARPE (Instituto del MAR del PEru)  what is now "ground zero" of ENSO (Peru):

http://www.imarpe.gob.pe/enso/Inicio/Tema1.htm]
[url]http://www.imarpe.gob.pe/enso/Inicio/Tema1.htm (http://[url)[/url]

Things are begging to warm up here, it could be the warming on the Peruvian SST:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsatelite.imarpe.gob.pe%2Fuprsig%2Fgeneral24abr14.gif&hash=97e0c24f1b367fd8b061bf3d4d3db599)

Best regards

From Lima(Peru)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: From Lima(Peru) on April 26, 2014, 02:20:59 AM
For context to my previous image, I show the Eastern Pacific temperatures:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolar.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fsst%2Fophi%2Fnepac_sst_ophi0.png&hash=7d3791be5162ec3fe1d38e54800151d2)

and the anomalies:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpolar.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fsst%2Fophi%2Fnepac_anomaly_ophi0.png&hash=91b82761eeb5b734d908df51b4c993c7)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2014, 03:18:40 AM
Attached is the 30-day moving average SOI for April 26 2014 with a value of +3.9.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Steven on April 26, 2014, 04:54:27 PM
.....per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).

AbruptSLR, according to your source in Reply #463 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.msg23500.html#msg23500), there was a sudden rise of the Nino 3.4 index on April 1st (or April 2nd?), increasing by about 0.45 in a single day.  I would guess that a 1-day rise of that magnitude may suggest an outlier, or perhaps it was partly related to the transition from March to April in one way or another.  But I could be wrong on this. 

Do you know if there is a more recent update from your source (http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com) in Reply #463?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2014, 05:11:29 PM
First, I note that the Cyclocane 48-hr forecast has increased the risk of a tropical storm in the Western North Pacific from low yesterday to medium today (see forecast below):

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N
144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM SOUTH
OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-ORGANIZING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 261158Z METOP-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 261159Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A 10-15 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH 20 KNOT WIND BARBS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
DUE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM."

Second, per the attached NOAA MJO 40-day plot on April 25 2014 the RMM value decreased and the MJO moved eastward (to a point close to the tropical disturbance cited above).

Thus, it appears that the current MJO will have little affect on the Walker Cell this time around and we will likely need to wait for another month or two to see if it influence the Walker Cell on its next cycle around the equator
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2014, 05:23:27 PM
.....per my Reply #463 we know that on April 2nd at least the daily Nino3.4 was over +0.5 (and then dropped back down).

AbruptSLR, according to your source in Reply #463 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.msg23500.html#msg23500), there was a sudden rise of the Nino 3.4 index on April 1st (or April 2nd?), increasing by about 0.45 in a single day.  I would guess that a 1-day rise of that magnitude may suggest an outlier, or perhaps it was partly related to the transition from March to April in one way or another.  But I could be wrong on this. 

Do you know if there is a more recent update from your source (http://www.stormvistawxmodels.com) in Reply #463?

Steven,

Unfortunately, I am too cheap to subscribe to the StormVistaWxModels service, so I do not have access to daily Nino indices values (what I reported in Reply #463 came from a farming investment service report).  In any event the short-term increase in the Nino3.4 near April 1 (or the morning of the 2nd) was of little impact whether it was due to a data reporting error, or possible due to a cold eddy from the Humboldt Current flowing into the equatorial zone between 170W and 120W.  In any event it is interesting that Kyle's forecast shows the Nino3.4 increasing after the first week in May, so we will soon see if the EKW forms any synergy with the atmosphere.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 26, 2014, 05:53:49 PM
From Lima(Peru),

Thanks for the referral to IMARPE (Instituto del MAR del PEru), it will take me a while to scroll through the wealth of linked information provided there; and thanks for the April 25 SSTA plot in your Reply #695 that clearly shows the formation of more stable CTWs (coastal trapped Kelvin waves) currently heading both north and south from Ecuador.

I look forward to getting more reports from Peru as the current El Nino event unfolds.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Steven on April 26, 2014, 06:42:39 PM
...it is interesting that Kyle's forecast shows the Nino3.4 increasing after the first week in May.

Yes, it will be interesting to see what happens in the next weeks.

Kyle MacRitchie also mentioned the following information on his Nino 3.4 graph (I'll quote him almost verbatim):

(1)  He uses data from CFS analyses, not from actual SST observations.
(2)  He uses daily data that is not smoothed, whereas most SST 3.4 indices are smoothed with a 5-day running mean.
(3)  He makes his SST anomalies by subtracting a very smooth version of the seasonal cycle constructed from daily climatological data.

Point (3) was related to the error in his previous version: there were a few missing days of data and this turned out to affect all the other values. 

EDIT.  His graphs for the other Nino regions such as Nino 1+2 may still be affected; he didn't correct that yet...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 26, 2014, 07:30:32 PM
Here is an animation of coral bleaching hotspots in the Eastern Tropical Pacific for the last two months. Yellow indicates potential bleaching.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/cb/hotspots/anim_2mp.html (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/cb/hotspots/anim_2mp.html)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2014, 03:34:33 AM
The first attached image is from the Cyclocane 48-hr tropical storm forecast issued April 26 2014, showing not only the location of the possible tropical storm in the Western North Pacific; but also that there is a low pressure tropical disturbance continuing need Darwin, and as the SOI is related to the atmosphere pressure at Tahiti less the pressure at Darwin, a low pressure system need Darwin will result in a higher SOI; which is indicated by second attached image of the 30-day moving average SOI which has now increased to +4.3.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on April 27, 2014, 06:00:44 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi3.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fy51%2FBelin%2FDMIssta_zps70ec6feb.png&hash=a5da6ab6ea761b3fb5dcce964ec7c1bc) (http://s3.photobucket.com/user/Belin/media/DMIssta_zps70ec6feb.png.html)

Latest DMI SSTA indicates significant warming has occurred off Peru in the past 3-4 days.

With TAO data indicating slackening trade winds across the equator the past few days (after the end of the latest WWB), our event may finally be under way.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JackTaylor on April 27, 2014, 04:17:09 PM
Here is an animation of coral bleaching hotspots in the Eastern Tropical Pacific for the last two months. Yellow indicates potential bleaching.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/cb/hotspots/anim_2mp.html (http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/cb/hotspots/anim_2mp.html)
Hey Bruce - going Off Topic with you, maybe all is not lost,
http://newstonight.co.za/content/some-corals-quickly-adapt-temperature-change (http://newstonight.co.za/content/some-corals-quickly-adapt-temperature-change)
"Some coral reefs can adapt to temperature change, said researchers from Stanford University. - - - On transplanting colonies of coral from a warm pool to a nearby cool pool and vice versa, researchers found that cool-pool corals adapted to heat with the passage of time. Interesting fact is that researchers found that these corals have rapidly adapted themselves for heat tolerance as it would take generations to achieve through evolution.
Palumbi said that both nature and nurture, effect of environment, plays vital role in deciding the effect of heat tolerance by coral colonies. He claimed that this interesting characteristic of corals helps them in fighting against the effects of global warming."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 27, 2014, 04:40:49 PM
According to NOAA the MJO has remained at the mid-Equatorial Western Pacific on April 26 2014 as indicated by the first attached image.  This halt in the eastward movement of the MJO is giving the tropical disturbance near 11.2N 146.2E time to strengthen as indicated by the Cyclocane 48-hr forecast; which now gives this system a "High" risk of becoming a tropical storm:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N
145.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 146.2E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHILE A
DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PERSISTED TO THE SOUTH. A 262240Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE ADDITIONALLY SHOWS THE LLCC IS POORLY DEFINED
WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05 TO 10 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE CONDUCIVE (29 TO 30
DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270230) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH."

The second attached image of the earth surface wind map for April 27 2014, shows both the current location of the tropical disturbance near 11.2N 146.2E, but also it indicates the recent weakening of the trade winds cited by Csnavywx.

It is still possible that the MJO could strengthen before it reaches the Equatorial Date Line.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 27, 2014, 05:28:25 PM
Joint Typhoon Warning Center have now declared TD6 to develop into a short-lived tropical storm by tomorrow.. TAO data looks like our third WWB is almost gone :( Does anyone have similar data from the WWB events during earlier El Niños and then especially 1997?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Bruce Steele on April 27, 2014, 07:43:52 PM
Past ENSO events have resulted in some large coral bleaching events " Cocos Island’s reefs lost 90 percent of their live coral cover during the 1982-83 ENSO, and incurred smaller losses during the following events. Recovery has since been significant; live coral cover off Cocos Island has grown from around 3 percent in the 1980’s to 23 percent in 2002, with one reef above 58 percent."
 Watching the NOAA coral bleaching hotspots report for temperature anomalies and duration of anomalous heating gives a good indication for where to watch for bleaching events.
 Jack, I have heard Palumbi say sea grass beds can locally compensate for acidification but as with his corals quickly adapting to high temperatures I would say the large picture in many places around the world is this isn't the case. If we get 1 degree C anomalous heating for several months we can expect to see problems.   
 
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bigB on April 27, 2014, 07:45:38 PM
Hey Lord M Vader check out this link for Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml (http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: RunningChristo on April 28, 2014, 12:30:24 AM
Do I remember correct when I say that last strong El Niño did "lead to" Heavy rainfalls along the western coast of USA? In that case it looks like California is in dire need for a New strong one 8).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 03:34:24 AM
First: RunningChristo, yes typically strong El Nino's lead to heavy rainfall during the winter months.

Second: Tropical Depression TD 6W is now TROPICAL STORM TAPAH  with Current Wind Speed: 35 knots  and max predicted speed: 45 knots at April 29, 2014 11:00am.  See the first attached image for the projected storm track so this short-lived tropical storm.

Third: The 30-day moving average SOI value continues to increase and per the second attached image is now +4.9.

It will be interesting to see whether Tropical Storm TAPAH has any influence on the MJO.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 28, 2014, 07:12:33 AM
ASLR, TS Tapah have been rapidly intensifying during the few hours since last update and is now predicted to reach typhoon status with maxwinds at 75 knots by tomorrow before the atmospheric conditions will limit intensification... It's  now forecasted to remain at TS status until may 2.. Very interesting to see if it has any impact at all!

//LMV
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 28, 2014, 03:17:33 PM
South American warm pool strengthened in the last 4 days. Niño 1+2 now positive after a dramatic 0.8 C jump (from -0.7 C to +0.1 C) in the last week. Niño 3.4 now 0.4 C.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.4.28.2014.gif&hash=b5fc2508d7fdd3a057d4309d3518e861)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 04:07:16 PM
The first attached image and the following forecast is from Cyclocane issued April 28 2014:

"Northwest Pacific Storms
•TROPICAL STORM TAPAH  - Current Wind Speed: 35 knots - max predicted speed: 70 knots at April 28, 2014 11:00pm"

The second images show an earth surface wind map image of tropical storm TAPAH on April 28 2014.

The third image shows that while TAPAH has been growing the MJO has neither moved nor intensified from the 26th to April 27 2014.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 04:21:00 PM
When comparing the attached subsurface equatorial temperatures and temperature anomalies by NOAA for April 23 2014 to those issued on April 18, one sees that the EKW in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific is continuing to weaken as it sends CTWs poleward; however one also sees that another small pulse of warm water (possibly associated with the recent CCKW) is traveling from the Western Equatorial Pacific to reinforce the EKW in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 04:32:20 PM
Attached is the latest NASA - Jason satellite SLR image for April 21 2014 that shows the EKW interacting with South America, while weakening in the Central Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 28, 2014, 04:38:15 PM
From NOAA's ENSO Weekly Update, on heat content and Kelvin waves (page 15):

Quote
The recent relative weakening of the positive anomalies indicates the upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave is also in progress.

This was bound to happen, and it explains why heat content in the central-eastern Pacific has decreased a bit. The question is: how strong will the upwelling phase be? If the pulse of warm water described by ASLR is sufficient enough, I think it could mute the upwelling, cool phase. This would tee up the next downwelling, warm phase for more favorable conditions to make impact. Then ocean heat content would still have room to grow to another peak.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on April 28, 2014, 05:28:00 PM
Also from the latest NOAA El Nino weekly forecast (p. 26):

    "The CFS.v2 ensemble mean...predicts El Niño starting in May 2014"

So El Nino in...2 days!?

Time to replace the question mark in the title of this thread with a period...or an exclamation point!??

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 06:43:05 PM
For those who want to see the recent trends in NOAA's Nino indices, I post the following:

                      Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week           SST SSTA    SST SSTA    SST SSTA   SST SSTA
 26MAR2014    25.4-0.7     27.6 0.4     27.6 0.2     29.0 0.7
 02APR2014     25.2-0.7     27.8 0.5     27.8 0.3     29.0 0.7
 09APR2014     24.9-0.8     27.6 0.1     27.9 0.2     29.1 0.7
 16APR2014     24.8-0.7     27.7 0.2     28.0 0.2     29.1 0.6
 23APR2014     25.3 0.1     27.8 0.4     28.2 0.4     29.2 0.6
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AndrewP on April 28, 2014, 09:44:19 PM
equatorial upper ocean OHC decreased from a peak of +1.7 April 1st to +1.3 at present. We're now barely half of what 1997 was at this point (+2.2). It was a massive EKW, but assuming the atmosphere would immediately jump on board as positive reinforcement was a risky assumption.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 28, 2014, 10:52:50 PM
AndrewP,

While it is tempting to compare our current situation with the 1997-98 event (as a meaningful amount of data is available for the 1997-98 event); nevertheless, the 1982-83 El Nino event is probably more relevant and according to the information that I posted in Reply #581, the Nino3.4 index grew rapidly during July 1982 due to a MJO event that happened in late May.  As we are still in the "Spring Barrier" period, it may be premature to say whether or not the atmosphere will provide sufficient positive reinforcement for our current condition to turn into a large El Nino by the end of the year, or not.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Neven on April 29, 2014, 12:00:09 AM
I now have to release the first 3 posts by new members (due to problems with spam), but as this thread is moving so fast, comments might not show up in time to get noticed.

So here I repeat the first comment by new forum member bigB:

Hey Lord M Vader check out this link for Comparison between the genesis of the 1997 El Nino and this 2014 WWB event http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml (http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/enso/2014/comparison.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 02:54:50 AM
The attached BoM plot of the 30-day moving average SOI values through April 29 2014 (Sydney time) indicates that the SOI is continuing to increase and is now +5.3
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on April 29, 2014, 03:08:33 AM
I'm afraid I haven't been following this as closely as I might have. Doesn't a positive SOI indicate the likelihood of a La Nina rather than an El Nino?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml)

What are we to make of this. Is it going to be another 2012 type thing where a promising El Nino suddenly fizzles away? Or does it just show that we can't really say much of anything definitive about these things until very late in the spring?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 06:31:50 AM
wili,

The current SOI value (between -8 and +8) reflects a neutral condition; however, I believe that a weak El Nino is very likely, but we may need to wait until mid-summer as to whether it will be a strong El Nino, or not.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 06:43:32 AM
According to Cyclocane TAPAH is now a severe tropical storm:

"Northwest Pacific Storms
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM TAPAH - Current Wind Speed: 55 knots - max predicted speed: 70 knots at April 29, 2014 5:00am"
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 29, 2014, 04:00:59 PM
One important thing to remember about 2012 was the intrusion of cool water that caused the warm water basin to become fragmented and isolated, and rapidly lose momentum in September.

You can see a fairly healthy body of warm water in August 2012, but trouble lurking beneath as a cool, upwelling Kelvin wave was about to rise.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Fmnth_gif%2Fxz%2Fmnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.2012.08.gif&hash=61cb902e3d09c1dfe5987617c19b07a4)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Fmnth_gif%2Fxz%2Fmnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.2012.09.gif&hash=8d503954f26bd025c0e9f813a665f009)

The event was on its way out by October.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2FGODAS%2Fmnth_gif%2Fxz%2Fmnth.anom.xz.temp.0n.2012.10.gif&hash=9d602be1a7a6f9fef9d05a9671a7d7d8)

I will agree with Andrew to the extent that 2012 did demonstrate that warm water alone was not enough to keep the momentum via an atmospheric feedback. A peak of +0.9C on Niño 3.4 was observed on August 29, 2012, sufficiently in El Niño territory. Trade winds periodically weakened in the east, but very few WWBs were observed to continue funneling warm water east. There has to be a point, essentially, when the Pacific basin has basically become leveled (a flat thermocline) from west to east, such that a change in sea level pressure and convection is caused by the unstable temperature equilibrium between the east and west. At that equilibrium, the system can tip in one direction or another, and often times goes to El Niño. La Niña won't happen without a significant cool, upwelling wave. We don't have that yet.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 04:33:06 PM
First, the following Cyclocane 48-hr forecast now has TAPAH classified as a typhoon:

"WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 290000Z, TYPHOON 06W (TAPAH) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N
147.4E, APPROXIMATELY 97 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, AND HAD
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80
KNOTS."

Second, the first attached image of the earth surface wind map of Typhoon TAPAH indicates that TAPAH is so far north that it is currently exerting only a moderate influence on the equatorial winds between 5N & 5 S.

Third, the second attached image from NOAA of the 40-day MJO record through April 28 2014, shows that the MJO has strengthened slightly (but remains relatively weak) and has travels substantially eastward and was at the Equatorial Date Line on the 28th.  If this MJO continues traveling rapidly eastward (as is forecast), it is unlikely to have a major impact on the Walker Cell; however, there is a small chance that it may linger around the Date Line, where is could locally disrupt the trade winds by the mechanism shown in the third attachment.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 04:43:11 PM
I would like to note that while the SOI values leaving the 30-day moving average are substantially negative, the numbers currently entering the moving average are negative (but less so than the numbers leaving the moving average).  Therefore, while I expect the moving average to continue becoming more positive for the next few days, I would be surprised if this moving average will exceed +8 anytime in the next few weeks.  Thus I expect the moving average will remain neutral at least until mid-May.

See the following link for Long Paddock station SOI values (which apparently have a different baseline than the official BoM SOI values):

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 29, 2014, 05:08:50 PM
For those who do not follow the thread too closely:

The following NOAA site (also see the first post in this thread) shows that the ensemble mean forecast currently indicates that the Nino3.4 will exceed +0.5 by the first (or second) week in May and will remain above this value for at least 5 months, thus indicating that most likely we will experience at least a weak El Nino (not a repeat of 2012).

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif)

Therefore, the issue in question is whether the atmosphere will provide sufficient positive reinforcement to the current EKW, to strengthen the fledgling El Nino into a stronger category.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 29, 2014, 05:50:33 PM
NOAA produces weekly updates on the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a manner similar to their weekly ENSO updates. Here is there most recent one for April 28th:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf)

On the weakened MJO:
"The suppressed phase is likely to continue below-average convection for the Maritime continent and western Pacific during Week-1 and later keep convection closer to average across the west-central Pacific where convection has been enhanced in recent weeks. Enhanced convection is favored across parts of Central America and the Indian Ocean over the course of the next two weeks."

...

Page 5:
"During April, winds near the Date Line have been close to average while westerly anomalies have been generally persistent across the Maritime continent and far western Pacific."

Based on the OLR chart on page 7, a period of increased convection is forecast to continue in the Indian Ocean two weeks from now, but the next two weeks will experience less convection towards the central Pacific. On page 11, I note that stratospheric winds (at 200 hPa) have been strongly easterly since early April.

On page 12, upper ocean heat content has increased in recent days and this is maintaining a strong downwelling phase, likely due to sustained westerlies described on page 5. This at least provides a floor. Suppression of any upwelling phases is key to ensuring that El Niño can survive. The next few weeks are going to be without any MJO support. Tropical storm activity will be more important during this time. Therefore, a weak El Niño is the more likely outcome for May-June. MJO may return to the western Pacific late in May.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: wili on April 29, 2014, 06:14:58 PM
Thanks, all, for updates and clarifications.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2014, 03:05:15 AM
The first attached image shows that the 30-day moving average SOI for April 30th has increased to +5.8.

The second attached image shows that while the cloud cover near the equatorial date line is currently low, it is increasing.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bigB on April 30, 2014, 07:13:12 AM
Reply #731 by Deep Octopus is right on the money! The next few weeks will be a critical junction in the evolution of the 2014 possible El Nino event. The weaker this upcoming inactive phase of the MJO is the better! As of right now our 4 month long run of westerly anomalies/WWB's are forecast to come to end with easterly anomalies forecast to take over some time in very early May cutting off the warm water transport to the east. For now we will have to wait and watch.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 30, 2014, 01:44:46 PM
Looks like the CFS forecasts for the 3.4 region is now starting at slightly above 0.5.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpjlDIyq.gif&hash=f0eb93fedaf6be41bde7ad27403eeb1a)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: crandles on April 30, 2014, 02:00:20 PM
Looks like the CFS forecasts for the 3.4 region is now starting at slightly above 0.5.

It has been that way since early April. But note that the weekly reports
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf)

use 'pdf corrected' versions which start just below 0.5. I haven't found an online 'pdf corrected' version other than in those weekly reports.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 30, 2014, 04:15:31 PM
Attached is NOAA's 40-day MJO record through April 29 2014 indicating that the MJO has gained strength as it has reached the Date Line.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on April 30, 2014, 11:58:05 PM
California Niño/Niña phenomenon identified by scientists. Interesting! I have to say, I've always found it peculiar why a band of cooler or warmer water often exists due southwest of Baja/Mexico, even during various phases of PDO and ENSO. This would go a long way explaining it.

Fairly off topic, but I think a valuable contribution that will potentially see more traffic on this thread for now. It looks like yet another factor we will need to bear in mind in the future.

California Niño/Niña

Chaoxia Yuan & Toshio Yamagata

Quote
The present study shows the existence of intrinsic coastal air-sea coupled phenomenon in the coastal ocean off Baja California and California in boreal summer for the first time. It contributes significantly to the interannual sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies there. An initial decrease/increase in the equatorward alongshore surface winds weakens/strengthens the coastal upwelling and raises/lowers the coastal SSTs through oceanic mixed-layer processes. The resultant coastal warming/cooling, in turn, heats/cools the overlying atmosphere anomalously, decreases/increases the atmospheric pressure in the lower troposphere, generates an anomalous cross-shore pressure gradient, and thus reinforces or maintains the alongshore surface wind anomalies. The regional air-sea coupled phenomenon seems to be analogous to the well-known El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific but with much smaller time and space scales, and may be referred to as California Niño/Niña in its intrinsic sense.

Have not read the entire document, but a first glance indicates that this California Niño/Niña is an oscillation independent of ENSO, though it is certainly influenced by ENSO. It is argued in this paper that this oscillation is more significant during the boreal (northern) summer.

PDF: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/pdf/srep04801.pdf (http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/pdf/srep04801.pdf)

Nature source: http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/full/srep04801.html?WT.ec_id=SREP-704-20140429 (http://www.nature.com/srep/2014/140425/srep04801/full/srep04801.html?WT.ec_id=SREP-704-20140429)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on May 01, 2014, 12:21:10 AM
Re MJO here's a page with 15 day forecasts from the MJO Working Group (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml#for)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2014, 01:35:37 AM
Attached are the BoM plots for the week ending April 27 2014 of the Nino 1, 2, 3, and 4 indices (the Nino3.4 values was 0.4), respectively.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: JayW on May 01, 2014, 11:40:52 AM
Thanks to AbruptSLR and deep octopus, and others who have contributed to this thread. I have learned a great deal from all your posts.  Not sure I can add much, but here it goes.

Here are some sea surface anomaly plots from a couple past El Niño events on April 28.  Pretty amazing how different 1982 and 1997 looked on the date.

Image provided by Physical Sciences Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/DataAccess.pl?DB_dataset=NOAA+High-resolution+Blended+Analysis&DB_variable=Sea+Surface+Temperature+Anomalies&DB_statistic=Anomaly&DB_tid=41263&DB_did=132&DB_vid=2421 (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/DataAccess.pl?DB_dataset=NOAA+High-resolution+Blended+Analysis&DB_variable=Sea+Surface+Temperature+Anomalies&DB_statistic=Anomaly&DB_tid=41263&DB_did=132&DB_vid=2421)

The years I plotted were 1982, 1997, 2007, 2014.  In that order


Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 01, 2014, 12:25:20 PM
The rapid warming of the Nino 1 and 2 regions is quite clear over the last week.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3RWbzcR.gif&hash=4c750a1ed34d4b4af26bec742092cf86)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2014, 12:27:48 PM
Attached is the May 1 2014 30-day moving SOI average with a value of +7.2 (note between -8 and +8 this indicates a neutral condition).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2014, 02:58:44 PM
I am traveling, so my posts have been short & irregular; nevertheless:

(1) I would like to acknowledge davidsanger's link to the 15-day MJO forecast, and say that while MJO forecasts can be subject to a lot of variability, I do concur with the current forecast that the MJO is likely to head rapidly eastward.  In this regard, as the MJO normally travels around the world in 30 to 60-days, if it heads eastward fast enough it could return to the Western Equatorial Pacific by the end of May or the beginning of June, where it might (or might not) help transition the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern at that time.

(2) I would like to thank JayW for the helpful SSTA plots from NOAA, indicating that there is still plenty of time left in this season for the fledgling El Nino to gain strength (or not) depending on future conditions.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 01, 2014, 03:37:01 PM
While the attached Wheeler & Hendon 90-day MJO plot through April 30th is different than the NOAA 40-day plot; nevertheless, it supports the idea that the MJO may well be heading rapidly eastward across the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 01, 2014, 03:43:05 PM
Safe travels, ASLR.

Jay W, thank you for the graphics. Very beautiful illustrations. I find that it supports the idea that although 1982 was off to a slower than 1997 (and even 2014), this did not hinder the rapid arrival of a very strong El Niño later in the year.

As BFTV pointed out, Niño 1 and 2 regions have warmed considerably. The South American warm pool continues its expansion. The persistence of the warm pool out in the western Pacific is also precarious, in terms of more fuel potential for our event.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.5.1.2014.gif&hash=6a9b181ab64563dd6fdd8096a77bc703)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ChasingIce on May 01, 2014, 11:13:26 PM
I have finally managed to wrestle NOAA's NOMAD GrADS (http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&ptype=map&dir=) system into compliance, and managed to get a good apples-to-apples SSTA comparisons out of it.  For anyone interested, here is what I did.

Image 1 is the settings I used (the variables are the key).  The next 2 images are plots from the week of Apr.23 for both 1997 & 2014 (and they are very much more similar than different).

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2014, 02:32:55 AM
The attached image indicates that the 30-day moving SOI average is now +8.6 (which is above the neutral range).  However, it should be noted that the SOI is the most volatile of the ENSO indices and this trend may change soon.  Indeed, according to the information at the Long Paddock station (see the following link), the SOI should start becoming less positive tomorrow:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on May 02, 2014, 01:12:49 PM
I have finally managed to wrestle NOAA's NOMAD GrADS (http://nomad1.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/pdisp_sst.sh?ctlfile=oiv2.ctl&varlist=on&new_window=on&ptype=map&dir=) system into compliance, and managed to get a good apples-to-apples SSTA comparisons out of it.  For anyone interested, here is what I did.

Image 1 is the settings I used (the variables are the key).  The next 2 images are plots from the week of Apr.23 for both 1997 & 2014 (and they are very much more similar than different).

Excellent, thanks ChasingIce.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 02, 2014, 02:51:09 PM
As I am still traveling, I cannot wait for the NOAA 40-day MJO record for May 1 2014; therefore, in the first attached image I post the May 1 2014 Wheeler & Hendon 90-day MJO record, and the second attached image of the April 30 2014 NOAA 40-day MJO record.

Taken together these records indicate that the MJO is strengthening rapidly and remains east of the Date Line.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 02, 2014, 07:13:20 PM
The upper ocean monthly heat anomaly data has been updated here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt)

We've seen a slight drop in the eastern equatorial Pacific, but small increase toward the west. The upper ocean heat content is now well below this time in 1997, as opposed to well above in March.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FaE6XNnP.jpg&hash=d3018c3293d60f0cc83663663777a265)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2014, 02:14:37 AM
Attached is the NOAA 40-day MJO record confirming the eastward progress of the MJO.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2014, 02:17:08 AM
Attached is the 30-day moving average for the SOI for May 3 2014 with a value of +7.9, returning the index to the neutral condition as expected.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2014, 11:14:19 AM
In order to reinforce BFTV's point in his Reply #751 that the 1997-98 Super El Nino consisted of at least three significant EKWs that episodically built-up the upper equatorial ocean temperature anomalies from 180W to 100W; I repost the attached image from my Reply #178 (which came from the following website) of the episodic ocean elevation at Fort Point San Francisco (resulting from CTWs due to the EKWs associated with the upper equatorial ocean temperature anomalies from 180W to 100W, but delayed by from 1.5 to 3 months due to the travel time of the CTWs from the equator to San Francisco).

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/ (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/)

If the current fledgling El Nino ever reaches a Super status, then we can expect two, or more, additional episodic EKW events before the end of this boreal summer, resulting in the types of Eastern Equatorial Pacific upper ocean temperature anomaly fluctuations that BFTV documents.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2014, 11:31:24 AM
The attached 1-year equatorial upper ocean temperature anomaly plot from 180 - 100W through about April 29 2014, indicates that the rate of reduction in the temperature anomaly may be leveling off at above 1.2 degrees C.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on May 03, 2014, 02:47:25 PM
Surface ocean currents show another EKW pushing east after the latest in a round of WWBs.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi3.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fy51%2FBelin%2F2ndEKW_zpsa466b558.gif&hash=923025e1cdab82ecfe791642efeafb17)

With the thermocline significantly depressed over the EPAC as a result of the first wave, WWBs and warm EKWs (like this one) are now favored. This wave is why we've seen the negative anomalies near and west of the dateline weaken and dissipate over the last week or so. It should give another push to the Nino developing in the CPAC and EPAC somewhere between the end of this month and mid-June (or thereabouts).

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on May 03, 2014, 02:55:46 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif&hash=7aa1ec151fc8bc4500c22e602b6723ee)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 03, 2014, 05:41:25 PM
Csnavywx,

Great reports about the next EKW moving eastward and about the general flattening of the thermocline.

This is my last post about the MJO until it gets back in position to influence the Western Equatorial Pacific, and the attached NOAA plot shows that the MJO is continuing to gain strength as it heads east.  You can monitor the progress of the MJO as it moves around the globe, it the following link:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2014, 03:01:27 AM
The attached 30-day moving average SOI plot shows that the average is dropping rapidly, as for May 4 2014 is now +6.5.  Further based on the information at the Long Paddock station, at the following link,  I expect this value to continuing dropping rapidly:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 04, 2014, 04:26:28 PM
The first attached image from NOAA presents the surface wind (850-hPa) anomalies through May 1 2014; which indicates that the trade winds in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific are anomalously low.

The second attached image also from NOAA shows the sea surface anomalies on April 28 2014 indicates that the body of warm water near the equatorial date line (180 degrees) extends from about 8N to about 10S; which is a relatively wide body.  Therefore, as the CCKW induced new EKW moves eastward from the Western Equatorial Pacific, it will likely move much of this wide body of warm water eastward into the 170W to 120W region that used to determine the Nino3.4 index.  Thus it is possible that during the next few weeks conditions to sustain an El Nino event will become reinforced.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2014, 03:25:00 AM
The attached BoM 30-day moving average SOI issued May 5 2014 indicates that this index continues to drop (as expected) and is now: +5.8
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: weatherwest on May 05, 2014, 09:46:09 PM
I've been following the developing El Nino pretty closely on the California Weather Blog (http://www.weatherwest.com (http://www.weatherwest.com)), given the potential implications for the California drought. The rapid warming of far eastern Pacific SSTs in recent days suggests an evolution very similar to April 1997. That is: we're a few weeks behind the surface evolution of that event, but ultimately still appear to be on track for a big event. It does appear that we're headed for a significant westerly wind burst in the eastern tropical Pacific in the coming days (attached image), which will be the first time we've seen one in that region during the current event. Needless to say: all eyes remain on the tropical Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2014, 10:29:21 PM
As can be seen from the following NOAA Nino data for the week centered on April 30th, the Nino3.4 is still at 0.4:


                       Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino34        Nino4
 Week            SST SSTA     SST SSTA  SST SSTA  SST SSTA
30APR2014      25.7 0.8     27.8 0.5     28.2 0.4     29.3 0.7
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 05, 2014, 10:32:34 PM
Information keeps coming in that suggest a steady ascent into an important ENSO event. Maybe it takes a while for the atmosphere to generate a Nino-circulation. But it looks like there's plenty of oceanic heat to trigger that change.
This is OSDPD SST for 5 May:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FOSDPD05052014small_zps3c60cc27.jpg&hash=7e11341bd8c89997ea7fd42e5d5e52aa)

Again some strenghtening over the last four days. Waters along the Peruvian coast are now warming.

The averaged indices for today (Nino regions 1+2, 3, 3+4, 4 resp. 0.658/0.428/0.407/0.632) have passed the +0.5 dC anomaly treshold.

Apart from the Nino-regions, it is suggestive to see that the warming now has spread along the whole North American Pacific coast. I wonder what the PDO-index will be for April.

Ah, I see ASLR posted the NOAA indices, which average even higher in Nino-quarters...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 05, 2014, 11:31:31 PM
The attached image of the Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Content Evolution comes from the weekly NOAA/NCEP ENSO update issued May 5 2014; and it notes a potential upwelling phase that could be developing near 170W to 160W (which deep octopus advised us to monitor).  It is possible that the coming EKW (down-welling phase) associated with the past CCKW could over-power this upwelling phase; which could lead to another reinforcement of the El Nino condition (conversely if the upwelling phase strengthened un-checked then the El Nino condition could weaken in the future).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 01:44:53 AM
The linked reference (with a free access pdf) discusses the correlation between Atlantic hurricane model forecasts and ENSOs:

Hui Wang, Lindsey Long, Arun Kumar, Wanqiu Wang, Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Ming Zhao, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Timorhy E. LaRow, Young-Kwon Lim, Siegfried D. Schubert, Daniel A. Shaevitz, Suzana J. Camargo, Naomi Henderson, Daehyun Kim, Jeffrey A. Jonas, Kevin J. E. Walsh, (2014), "How well do global climate models simulate the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones associated with ENSO?", Journal of Climate

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00625.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00625.1)

Abstract: "The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Niño and stronger activity during La Niña. For CP El Niño, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Niño. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region during CP El Niño as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of the models in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Niño, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 01:46:19 AM
The linked reference discusses the robustness/stability of the ENSO across a range of climate conditions:

Georgy E Manucharyan and Alexey V Fedorov, (2014), "Robust ENSO across climates with a wide range of mean east-west SST gradients", Journal of Climate 2014 ; e-View doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00759.1 (http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00759.1)

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00759.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00759.1)

Abstract: "The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a pronounced mode of climate variability that originates in the tropical Pacific and affects weather patterns worldwide. Growing evidence suggests that despite extensive changes in tropical climate, ENSO was active over vast geological epochs stretching millions of years from the Late Cretaceous to the Holocene. In particular, ENSO persisted during the Pliocene when there occurred a dramatic reduction in the mean east-west temperature gradient in the equatorial Pacific. The mechanisms for sustained ENSO in such climates are poorly understood. Here we use a comprehensive climate model to simulate ENSO for a broad range of tropical Pacific mean climates characterized by different climatological SST gradients. We find that the simulated ENSO remains surprisingly robust: when the east-west gradient is reduced from 6°C to 1°C, the amplitude of ENSO decreases only by 30-40%, its dominant period remains close to 3-4 years, and the spectral peak stays above red noise. To explain these results, we evaluate the magnitude of ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that control the stability of the natural mode of ENSO (the Bjerknes Index). We find that due to reorganization of the atmospheric Walker circulation in response to changes in the mean surface temperature gradient, the growth/decay rates of the ENSO mode stay nearly constant throughout different climates. These results explain the persistence of ENSO in the past and, in particular, reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings of ENSO occurrence and the small mean east-west temperature gradient during the Pliocene."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 03:02:05 AM
The attached BoM 30-day moving average SOI plot issued May 6 2014 (Sydney time) indicates that this index continues to become less positive and is now: +5.2
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 06, 2014, 11:52:16 AM
BOM 6 April 2014:
“ For El Niño to be established and maintained, coupling needs to occur between the tropical Pacific atmosphere and ocean, evident by further and persistent weakening of the trade winds and a consistent increase in cloudiness near the Date Line. These atmospheric characteristics of El Niño are forecast to become evident over the coming months.”

While their averaged indices now are +0.7 and CDAS comes up with an average of +0.6, earth.nullschool still shows a lot of trade winds and BOM indicates cloudiness temporarily weakened.

There’s no doubt that the stored heat in the oceans will, in some form, accelerate the rise of global lower tropospheric temps. It is very interesting to follow whether it will come through this forecast ENSO-event.
Potentially, under the present OHC conditions such an event could acquire unprecedented properties.
For the Arctic, it might initially not be of great influence. Given the PDO development, warm Pacific water passing through the Bering Strait might be the main feature this spring.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 04:31:00 PM
werther,

I concur with your assessment, and I add:

First, the BoM May 6 ENSO update also states: "The tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed steadily in recent months, with large warm anomalies in the ocean sub-surface (5-day values up to +6 °C) and increasingly warm sea surface temperatures. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level."

Second, per the first attached Nino3.4 plot by BoM for the past week the Nino3.4 was +0.44 which is slightly higher than the NOAA value of +0.4 (for the week centered a day or two before the BoM weekly average); which indicates that conditions are still moving towards an El Nino event.

Third, for May 5 & 6, the Long Paddock station SOI daily values were: -25.80 and -35.83, respectively; indicating that the Pacific trade winds are currently being suppressed (and that we can expect to see the 30-day moving average to continue to plunge).

Finally, I attach the second image of the 90-day MJO RMM record by Wheeler & Hendon through May 5 2014; which indicates that the MJO is both gaining strength, and moving eastward, rapidly.  If this behavior continues, it may reach the Date Line by the end of May and it may be strong enough to have a significant impact on the Walker Cell in that time frame.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 04:35:46 PM
For those who don't visit the BoM website too often, I post here BoM's Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices plots, respectively, issued May 6 2014, most of which indicate a continued warming of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 06, 2014, 05:09:42 PM
Thanks, ASLR,

BTW I checked the NCEP/NCAR on the vector wind anomaly 01-03 May and had the impression that indeed there's a negative anomaly in the strength and direction of surface winds all along the equator.
Nullschool may not show this anomaly very well, as the main direction of air movement remains East-West. But it is likely that the momentum posed by the winds doesn't match the strength of the ocean volume displacement. Wow, trying to remember schooltime physics terms here....

I'm a bit surprized by the velocity of the MJO! It seems to hurry to get back to business...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 06:22:13 PM
As some people seem to prefer to refer to the NOAA MJO 40-day RMM record (as opposed to the BoM 90-day record), I attach the latest NOAA record through May 5 2014; which supports the BoM data.  We will need to see whether this fast paced eastward movement continues.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 06, 2014, 08:46:43 PM
What's the forecast for MJO? And where do I find the daily values from Longpaddock station?

Also, no TC formation seems likely for the next 10 days in WPAC.. However, there is an investment area in EPAC which NOAA give a 30% chance to develop during the next 48 hours.. It would be extraordinary early if we would see a tropical cyclone to develop in the EPAC where the hurricane season runs from May 15 to november 30. The earliest date a TC have formed in the "real" EPAC is May 12 in 1990 when Alma formed. Alma is also the earliest TC forming in the Easp Pacific proper according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Alma (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_Pacific_hurricane_season#Hurricane_Alma)

One interesting question however appears: what impact would a small TC in the EPAC around 10-15N have? Given that TC's in EPAC use to have a small geometric size the impact may not be too big..

Of course, hurricane Ekeka in winter 1992 must be seen as an exceptionally outlier and also formed in the Central Pacific... 1992 was also a year with El Niño...

In addition, there is also a medium chance that a shortlived TC might form right west of Sri Lanka in the Northern Indian Ocean...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 06, 2014, 08:56:27 PM
LMV,

Attached is NOAA's ensemble MJO forecast issued May 6, 2014, and you can get the Long Paddock station daily SOI values at the following link:

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on May 07, 2014, 12:19:43 AM
you can get the Long Paddock station daily SOI values at the following link:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/ (http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/)

Daily SOI suddenly dropped to -34.68, lowest since Feb 2013
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2014, 02:28:47 AM
First, people should realize that the Long Paddock station SOI values appears to have a different baseline than does that used by the BoM for the 30-day moving average SOI, and also it is not a good idea to over-think the daily values as they are particularly volatile.

That said the attached BoM 30-day moving average SOI plot issued May 7 2014 (Sydney time) reports a index value of +3.0; which is a steep rate of decrease from yesterday's value of +5.2.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 07, 2014, 11:40:29 AM
This morning I chose to have a look on NCEP/NCAR date 04 May, focusing on the Pacific SST’s.
I compared it to the same days in ’97 and ’83. The result was interesting enough to share it on the thread:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FComparisonPacific8397140405small_zpsf984307a.jpg&hash=c2bc679057994323f24f9d682763d13b)

In the formal Nino regions, 1983 sure was big that date. And though smallest for the date, ’14 shares a resemblance with ’97. But what really stands out is the wide spread positive SST anomaly in ’14!

The ’83 ENSO event is like a flare in a blue, negative anomaly basin. In ’97 there’s also a warm pool in the NW and SW. Now, the event is not even striking within the general pattern; Australia surrounded by warmer waters, warmth against North America, a vast warm pool in the Western Pacific, that will probably keep feeding the present ENSO build-up.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 07, 2014, 01:51:56 PM
Those westerly surface wind anomalies have been growing. Below shows the anomalies over the 2 weeks up to May 4th.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fo4LW69k.jpg&hash=1968d5cc49cdb7cf70581ade888b3e00)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 07, 2014, 01:56:57 PM
Wether, interesting results. The closeness of 1997 and 2014 is almost as if they are identical. The persistent warmth today in the western Pacific indicates much fuel to be tapped. But also, I think it would be more telling to compare 1997 and 2014 with May 1982 rather than 1983, no?
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 07, 2014, 02:10:11 PM
Thanks, DO,
I didn't realize that in my hasty check. When done right, 4 May 1982 shows the nino 4, 3-4 and 3 warming, but 1+2 still in deep blue. As posted higher up; the event deployed later in the season that year...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2014, 04:28:20 PM
As there was appreciable interest in the NOAA ensemble GFS MJO 15-day forecast, I present this image with measured data through May 6 2014.  This indicates that the MJO is still gaining strength, and I would like to note that I do not put much faith in the forecast beyond 5 +/- 2 days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 07, 2014, 08:18:09 PM
As werther's post brought-up the issue of comparing the 82-83 and 97-98 El Nino events to our current conditions, I am reporting the following monthly Nino3.4 index information, from the following site:

ftp://ftp.atmos.washington.edu/mantua/pnw_impacts/INDICES/nino34.long.latest

Nino3.4 index values for 82-83 & 97-98:
Year   Jan   Feb   Mar   Apr   May   Jun   Jul   Aug   Sep   Oct  Nov   Dec

1982  0.36  0.06  0.09  0.39  0.99  1.33  1.14  1.33  1.78  2.27  2.46  2.78
1983  3.01  2.62  1.98  1.35  1.40  0.90  0.12 -0.09  0.05 -0.61 -0.72 -0.83

1997 -0.40 -0.25  0.03  0.51  1.10  1.56  1.96  2.20  2.53  2.79  2.92  2.85
1998  2.75  2.28  1.59  0.96   .93  -.69 -1.02 -1.15  -.79 -1.11 -1.18 -1.61

To me this indicates that we may currently be more comparable to the 82-83 conditions than the 97-98 conditions.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 02:48:59 AM
The 30-day moving average SOI issued May 8 2014 is now +2.3, which is down from yesterday's value of +3.0, as indicated in the attached plot from the BoM:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Csnavywx on May 08, 2014, 04:50:08 AM
It looks like (from the global models) that daily SOIs will return (briefly) to a neutral state late this week before returning to moderate negative values next week. We should the 30 day numbers continue to slide back and the 90 day numbers approach Nino values in the next couple of weeks.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bassman on May 08, 2014, 04:52:45 AM
If anyone is wondering how surface temps will lag the influence of an El Nino, check out Table 1 from Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 (link below).  It shows the optimal lag time for all 5 temperature Data sets in response to MEI.  Nasa  4 months, NOAA 2 months, HADCRU 3 months and RSS & UAH 5 months.  This is based on MEI (related to El Nino).  I confess that I don't really understand how that relates to El Nino and PDO values.  If someone would like to explain MEI, please do.  By the way this paper is worth reading a 2nd or 3rd time.  It is truly remarkable for a general understanding of AGW. 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044022.pdf (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/6/4/044022/pdf/1748-9326_6_4_044022.pdf)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 08, 2014, 03:52:24 PM
Michelle L'Heureux has published a guest post to RealClimate on our present El Niño development: "El Niño or Bust"

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/05/el-nino-or-bust/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/05/el-nino-or-bust/)

Quote
As far back as November 2013, the CPC and the IRI have predicted an elevated chance of El Niño (relative to historical chance or climatology) based on a combination of model predictions and general trends over the tropical Pacific Ocean. Once the chance of El Niño reached 50% in March 2014, an El Niño Watch was issued to alert the public that conditions are more favorable for the development of El Niño.

More recently, on May 8th, the CPC/IRI ENSO team increased the chance that El Niño will develop, with a peak probability of ~80% during the late fall/early winter of this year. El Nino onset is currently favored sometime in the early summer (May-June-July). At this point, the team remains non-committal on the possible strength of El Niño preferring to watch the system for at least another month or more before trying to infer the intensity. But, could we get a super strong event?

...

While folks might prefer total certainty in our forecasts, we live in an uncertain world. El Niño is most likely to occur this year, so please stay attentive to the various updates linked above and please visit our brand new ENSO blog.

The ENSO blog she refers to is to be linked at climate.gov shortly. I'll be looking forward to it.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 08, 2014, 04:11:18 PM
Around the dateline, we see this continued growth of a hot spot of water. It has been expanding for a few weeks now. Meanwhile, the oranges are turning into reds near the Americas. The PDO is clearly in a warm phase, as western North America is beginning to see repeated waves of warm air pump into the area. A serious heatwave is already forecast for the Pacific United States in the next week, very bad news for wildfires.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.5.8.2014.gif&hash=14861173a9616f7f85172fed9d286a6c)

The coral are showing moderate bleaching as well.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fcb%2Fhotspots%2F2014%2Fhotspotg.5.8.2014.gif&hash=5c90df2a1c7586510a530172db3411d1)

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 05:30:57 PM
In my opinion NOAA is correct to wait a month, or two, before trying to estimate the possible intensity of any 2014-15 El Nino event.  Csnavywx stated that the global models indicate that the SOI will be leading towards reinforcing El Nino conditions in as little as two weeks time, and according to the attached NOAA MJO 15-day forecast, the MJO is still gaining strength but has slowed its rate of eastward progress.  Therefore, it is still possible that by the end of May, or the beginning of June, that a significant MJO in the Western Equatorial Pacific, could trigger the Walker Cell into an El Nino pattern, and if so we could be on track for a Super this season, and if not we may be limited to a moderate El Nino event.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 06:33:13 PM
bassman,

Thanks for the link to the Foster & Rahmstorf (2011) paper, and you can learn about the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) at the following link:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/)

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 06:42:46 PM
As a follow-up to my last post about the MEI index, I note that on May 7th Klaus Wolter updated his discussion of the updated MEI (March-April) at the following link, and I provide the following extract from that discussion that confirms the 80% chance of an El Nino event this season (without any indication about its possible intensity yet):

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/#discussion)

"The updated (March-April) MEI has gone up almost another 0.2 sigma, now at +0.15. Its current ranking has gone up to the 35th lowest out of 65, still in ENSO-neutral territory. To find analogous cases, I looked at the nearest-ranked Mar-Apr MEI values (within ranks 20-50), and required an increase in their rankings from both the previous month and from Dec-Jan, similar to last month's search. Of the 10 cases selected in this fashion, two (1984, 2001) remained either neutral or dropped back to at least weak La Niña status within the year. Of the remaining eight, seven ended up as bona fide El Niño events (1951, 1957, 1965, 1991, 1994, 2002, and 2009), while one ended up as a short-lived one (2012). Of the original roll-call listed last month, only two remain (1957, 1965), but an 80% chance of El Niño rankings at some point this year are still impressive odds."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 08, 2014, 06:58:55 PM
new post in RealClimate http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/05/el-nino-or-bust/ (http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2014/05/el-nino-or-bust/)
stating f.e. 2/10 chance of this still fizzling out. NOAA starting a blog on forecasting el Nino. Hopefully thay make pretty binding statements of various weather phenomena being tied to this one later in the year.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 08:18:07 PM
In Climate Denial Crock of the Week, Peter Sinclair interviewed Dr. Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Dr. Josh Willis of NASA JPL, and they indicate that in their opinions an El Nino will happen this year, but the real question is how strong it will be.  See the video at the following link:

http://climatecrocks.com/ (http://climatecrocks.com/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 08:51:15 PM
Various GODAS plots are now available for the month of April 2014, and I provide the following four plots that are of interest to me, from the following site:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)

The first image shows the 20 degree C depth anomaly indicating that the flattening of this key gradient was well advanced by the end of April.

The second image shows Sea Surface Height, SSH, anomaly; which in addition to showing the increase in height in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, also shows very strong increases in the sea surfaces in the South Pacific and in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean.

The third image show ocean surface current anomaly, showing a lot of eastward movement of water in the Equatorial Pacific.

The last image, I think will be very important when the typhoon season gets started as it shows the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential, that indicates a large pool of energy near the Equatorial Date Line that was available at the end of April to drive typhoons, and since that time this heat potential has increased.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 08, 2014, 09:27:59 PM
Thanks all for the informative links and graphs!

I'd like to add this one:
I picked this graph up on CPC while checking the ENSO parameters this evening:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FCDASvectorwindanomalies2604to0505_zps0cac2995.jpg&hash=a050f5520cd66c0aa11c9a5374e5370a)

It shows how, slowly, the atmosphere is reacting to the ocean surface change.

The regional indices average on +0.75 today. I’d say the threshold is unofficially crossed during the last couple of days.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 08, 2014, 10:00:26 PM
University of Washington has updated the PDO index. April 2014 was +1.13. This is now the most positive read on PDO since June 2005.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 08, 2014, 10:21:07 PM
deep octopus,

Thanks for the heads-up on the PDO update.  I note that the following PDO table shows that we are still ahead of 1997 wrt PDO values, and I also note that if May's PDO exceeds 1.86, then one would need to go back to 1998 in order to find a more positive PDO value:


YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83    2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61    1.12    0.67
2014     0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: davidsanger on May 08, 2014, 11:11:49 PM
CPC/IRI forecast probability (http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-cpc_plume) now up to 78% for NDJ 2014
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2014, 02:12:07 AM
Today's 30-day moving average SOI index value shows a sizable drop from +2.3 to +0.9 (see attached image).  While this is clearly still a neutral value, at this rate of decline, indications of El Nino reinforcement may be only one, or two, weeks away.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: jai mitchell on May 09, 2014, 03:34:16 AM
real time Sea surface temperature anomalies here:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=254.67,11.06,881 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=254.67,11.06,881)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2014, 04:31:57 AM
jai,

Thanks for the link to the beautiful real time SSTA images for the entire ocean; which among a lot of other things, these anomalies make it clear that the original EKW has effectively disrupted the Humboldt Current, and that the new EKW near the Equatorial Date Line is steadily moving eastward to reinforce this growing El Nino event.

Best,
ASLR
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 09, 2014, 06:22:57 AM
for historical perspective RemSS keeps continuing the (a)MSU-measurements and subsequent calculations of Lower Troposphere anomalies over latitude bands that clearly shows the effect of Ferrel cell in the mixing of the El Nino dispensed ocean heat:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 09, 2014, 08:25:07 AM
Ah, thanks Pmt, for yet another great tool.
I copied this one on TLT anomaly:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FTLTanomalyApril14_zps9ddc79f4.jpg&hash=d7adb7c04077795bcf52ae04de983550)

Very instructive; see how the ano’s reflect the ridges and troughs in the N Hemisphere. How it indicates the massive rapid loss of snow cover in mid-Siberia (Lena Basin).
This does not exactly fit the Nino thread, but, at least, it shows what the positive PDO/Pacific SST is doing to the lower troposphere too.

This will be great to illustrate the global effects when El Nino will fulfill the expectations.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Laurent on May 09, 2014, 09:26:57 AM
World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS)|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.U2yCD4ZJzlc
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 09, 2014, 10:14:03 AM
That's an article worth to be taken seriously, Laurent.

Adding to my earlier post, the average index for the four main ENSO regions has risen another +0.04 dC to +0.79 in a day.
Look well at OSDPD SST full global 8/5. There's indication of an 'Atlantic Nino' growing as well. The Indian plays its own part, India surrounded by positive anomalies. The Maritime Continent joins the party. Collectively, there's so much more heat in the game compared to '97.

It is amazing, in '97 it was just impossible to follow this front seat...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 09, 2014, 11:52:12 AM
It is amazing, in '97 it was just impossible to follow this front seat...

yes, amazing.

 
There's indication of an 'Atlantic Nino' growing as well. The Indian plays its own part, India surrounded by positive anomalies.

At least this should give Pakistanis and Southwest Asians a break from huge monsoons and floods. Here's hoping it won't get too dry.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 09, 2014, 05:13:17 PM
We certainly are accumulating a lot of first class tools for monitoring the development & impact of the coming El Nino event.  It is clear to me that the atmospheric telecommunication through the Ferrel Cell (that Pmt & werther reference) are reinforcing the positive trend in the IPO by transporting energy directly to the North and South Pacific; a trend that should increase (and provide a positive feedback) as the El Nino gains strength.

Next, the attached image indicates that the MJO is about to enter the Indian Ocean, and we will see whether it maintains its strength, or whether its strength decreases as forecast by NOAA.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 09, 2014, 06:08:04 PM
El Niño Watch continues for NOAA's advisory system. They increased the likelihood of an El Niño arriving this summer from 50% to 65%.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf)

Figure 6 of their monthly advisory suggests that a moderate El Niño (between 1.0 and 1.5 C) is the predicted average from IRI/CPC's average of all participating models.

CFSv2 still shows a strong El Niño (>1.5 C) as the average:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Forigin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fpeople%2Fwwang%2Fcfsv2fcst%2FimagesInd3%2Fnino34Mon.gif&hash=81e85fe59434671dda95f5abc539c5ff)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: ritter on May 09, 2014, 06:26:52 PM
World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS (http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22229682.400-world-is-unprepared-for-major-el-nino-later-this-year.html?cmpid=RSS)|NSNS|2012-GLOBAL|environment#.U2yCD4ZJzlc

I found the following link in that story interesting as to the impacts of the 97-98 event on the California Bay Area (near and dear to me).
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/ (http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/1999/fs175-99/)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Clare on May 09, 2014, 07:28:23 PM
NZ Farmers are being warned to prepare for the worst as risk of El Nino grows:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11245316 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11245316)

Then the next day the same paper gave (breathing) space to a sceptic re. this!
http://hot-topic.co.nz/herald-gives-de-freitas-platform-to-smear-climate-science/ (http://hot-topic.co.nz/herald-gives-de-freitas-platform-to-smear-climate-science/)

and todays Hot Topic post included a Yale video link re. el nino that even I can understand!
http://hot-topic.co.nz/something-for-the-weekend-boy-child-birth-on-the-way-will-get-feet-wet/ (http://hot-topic.co.nz/something-for-the-weekend-boy-child-birth-on-the-way-will-get-feet-wet/)

PS.Kevin Trenberth featured is a kiwi from Christchurch, see here about the flooding problems they have been having this year, exacerbated by subsidence + earthquake damage to infrastructure:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11250615 (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/opinion/news/article.cfm?c_id=466&objectid=11250615)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 09, 2014, 09:48:35 PM
Hi Clare,
I see you link to a NZ article dating back to 28/4. I wonder what Prof. Renwick's assessment is now...
Furthermore, on De Freitas... a lot of chicken are running. Like in Europe Prof. Bengtsson... Like JimD writes about on another thread, there's not much difference between BAU and GreenBAU. In analogy to Paul Simon, there are 51 ways to deny what's going on...and go for short term profit. After all, "après nous la deluge..."
On Christchurch... the terrible eathquake not that long ago, I sure wish the people out there some good luck on their governance. I didn't realise that large parts of that city stand below 2 m above mean sea level. OTOH, that would be quite safe here in the Netherlands...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: bigB on May 09, 2014, 09:50:50 PM
The recent significant spike in negative daily SOI values can be attributed to low pressure that was located to the south of Tahiti earlier in the week. As of today 5/9/14 low pressure in that region was moving out with high pressure forecast to build in behind it by Saturday 5/10/14. Daily SOI values will likely be on the rise then.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 09, 2014, 10:16:41 PM
bigB,
That observation strengthens my thought that the SOI is a volatile index. I'd take it in for sure, but wouldn't give it the heighest weight in assessing the state of ENSO.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 09, 2014, 11:13:49 PM
Busy day on this thread! The Yale Climate Forum has posted a video to its Youtube page discussing El Niño, including snippets of an interview they had with Kevin Trenberth: "the official announcements from the Weather Service and the CPC have been very conservative on this front."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9vQlsuhM8Q (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9vQlsuhM8Q)

The uncertainty is most serious when discussing the intensity. Once you've determined the binary choice between the "El Niño or Bust", it's the progression from there that is less clear. That's certainly reason to find it unsettling, given we seem to be well on the way to an official El Niño.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2014, 03:05:29 AM
The SOI has fluctuated up today and is now at +1.1 per the attached plot
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 10, 2014, 03:13:45 PM
Mod of the TLT channel image, whether it makes sense is somebody else's problem, since I cannot prove this scientifically (too hard). Here it looks like a heatwave somewhere in latitude band 25-35 may be one requirement for el Nino, there are likely others too. The ten month warning time would allow farmers to do changes in their practises before Nino hits their area, and also give proper preparation time for others directly affected. It looks like only larger el Ninos warm the whole atmosphere all the way from 90N to ~50S, the smaller ones do not reach high latitudes in their effect but give rather mixed signals under Ferrel and Polar cells (looks to me). The cold surges from poles are still more guesswork here. But as said I lack the capabilities to check this properly. I'd guess '25-35N heatwaves' should be a warming of the 25-35N band of Northern Pacific, if it's related to el Nino but really not sure. also notable that all heatwaves on this latitude band are not el Nino related so the longitude these occur could be an issue.
Back to Ice Watching for me, hopefully there's a reliable El Nino-prediction system up shortly, to get people preparing in advance.  Still remember the images from 1998, Columbian City streets having over a meter water running beside and through people's homes.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 10, 2014, 05:10:01 PM
The first attached image shows that the MJO has now reached the Indian Ocean with a reason level of strength.

The second image of NOAA's Equatorial Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly indicates that by about May 3rd the anomaly was at about 1.2.

The third attached image shows NOAA's equatorial surface wind (850-hPa) velocity potential anomalies thru May 7 2014; which shows that the new EKW near the Equatorial Date Line may be receiving reinforcement in its eastward progress.

Also, looking at the Long Paddock station readings, one should expect the SOI 30-day moving average value to fluctuate up and down for about the next week in a neutral condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 10, 2014, 07:39:14 PM
How can I refrain from posting an article with the title, "Monster Kelvin Wave Is Barfing Heat Into The Atmosphere"?   ;D

Besides, it's a pretty good article.

http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/09/1298131/-Monster-Kelvin-Wave-Is-Barfing-Heat-Into-The-Atmosphere?detail=email (http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/09/1298131/-Monster-Kelvin-Wave-Is-Barfing-Heat-Into-The-Atmosphere?detail=email)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2014, 02:26:54 AM
As expected the 30-day moving SOI average for May 11 2014 has bounced up, and is now +2.9 (again we can expect this volatile index to fluctuate within the neutral band for about the next week)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2014, 04:22:55 PM
The attached image from NOAA shows the MJO moving rapidly across the Indian Ocean, and is forecast to strengthen slightly tomorrow.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2014, 04:59:56 PM
The following selected quotes and the first three attached images come from the linked Comet website which includes much more discussion of tropical storms/cyclones than presented here (so you may want to navigate around the Comet websites for a better understanding of this topic):

The first attached image (from Comet) shows the location of tropical storms; which indicates that the area in Tropical Northwest Pacific has the largest number of typhoons/cyclones/hurricanes in the world (see the following quote & link):

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.0.0.htm (http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.0.0.htm)

"What is tropical cyclogenesis? Surprisingly, there is no single answer to this question. Operational forecast centers responsible for issuing tropical cyclone watches and warning define genesis as observed sustained mean surface winds (averaging time is dependent on region) in excess of tropical storm force (17 m s-1; 60 km h-1; 33 knots). While this is a readily applied and unambiguous criterion for tropical storm formation, it is not particularly helpful in understanding the processes leading to genesis. However, implicit in this operational genesis criterion is the expectation that the tropical storm will continue to develop from this point forward; that is, that the storm will become self-sustaining. This is the definition of genesis that we will use here: tropical cyclogenesis has occurred when the tropical storm has become self-sustaining and can continue to intensify without help from its environment (external forcing)."

The second attached image shows the seasonal nature of many of the factors related to the cyclogenesis of tropical storms in the Tropical Northwest Pacific region, and indicates that during July the wind shear should increase in this region.

The third attached image (discussed in the following quote and link) presents a relatively new theory about the cyclogenesis of storms in this Tropical Northwest Pacific region, illustrating the relationship of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ zone to generate tropical storms.

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.2.0.htm (http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.2.0.htm)

"In most basins, the monsoon trough is the most common region for genesis, so we begin with a review of the controls on tropical cyclogenesis in the monsoon trough environment. A new way of looking at the tropical western North Pacific is to partition its large–scale tropical environment into a monsoon trough zone and an ITCZ zone, separated by a confluence zone {see the third attached image}. The monsoon trough zone is characterized by the near–equatorial seasonal westerly winds and enhanced rainfall. Lower tropospheric vorticity in the monsoon trough zone is derived from the cyclonic circulation that results from the incursion of the monsoon westerlies. In contrast, the ITCZ zone is dominated by trade easterlies throughout; these low–level easterlies converge in the ITCZ convective trough. The transition zone between the near-equatorial monsoon westerlies and ITCZ trade easterlies is known as the confluence zone. This combination of features—monsoon trough, confluence zone, and ITCZ—will be referred to here as the monsoon region."

The fourth attached image shows an earth surface wind map for May 11 2014, showing how the monsoon trough / confluence zone / ITCZ north of New Guinea might be gradually coming together.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 11, 2014, 11:12:28 PM
As I suspect that some people will not navigate through the Comet website, I post the following quotes and images regarding cyclogenesis from the following Comet link:

http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.1.0.htm (http://www.goes-r.gov/users/comet/tropical/textbook_2nd_edition/navmenu.php_tab_9_page_3.1.0.htm)

"Six features of the large-scale tropics were identified by Gray (1968) as necessary, but not sufficient conditions for tropical cyclogenesis:

(i)   sufficient ocean thermal energy [SST > 26°C to a depth of 60 m],
(ii)   enhanced mid-troposphere (700 hPa) relative humidity,
(iii)   conditional instability,
(iv)   enhanced lower troposphere relative vorticity,
(v)   weak vertical shear of the horizontal winds at the genesis site, and
(vi)   displacement by at least 5° latitude away from the equator.

The first three thermodynamic parameters measure the ability to support deep convection—criteria that have been identified as seasonal indicators of genesis potential. The latter, dynamical parameters, such as vertical wind shear {see the first attached image in this post}, measure the daily likelihood of genesis.  In recent years, a number of tropical cyclones have remained within 5° latitude of the equator, suggesting a need to relax this constraint. Many, but not all, of those near-equatorial systems had very small spatial scale. Locations where conditions (i) and (v) are satisfied are highlighted in {the second attached figure in the immediate prior post, ie Reply 821}.
“Necessary but not sufficient” means that all of these conditions must be present simultaneously before tropical cyclogenesis can occur, but even if all of these conditions are met, tropical cyclogenesis may not occur. Thus, the necessary, but not sufficient, criteria for tropical cyclogenesis may be summarized as the ability to support deep convection in the presence of a low-level absolute vorticity maximum. The low-level vorticity maximum reduces the local Rossby radius of deformation focusing the convective heating locally.
The ability of the initial convection to survive for many days depends on its vorticity, stability, and depth—defined by the Rossby radius of deformation, LR. The Rossby radius, LR, is the critical scale at which rotation becomes as important as buoyancy. When the disturbance size is wider than LR, it persists; systems that are smaller than LR will disperse {see the second attached image in this post}. LR is inversely proportional to latitude so it is very large in the tropics. However, the high vorticity in tropical cyclones reduces the Rossby radius and enables tropical cyclones to last for many days and even weeks.
The ability of the initial convection to survive for many days depends on its vorticity, stability, and depth—defined by the Rossby radius of deformation, LR. The Rossby radius, LR, is the critical scale at which rotation becomes as important as buoyancy. When the disturbance size is wider than LR, it persists; systems that are smaller than LR will disperse (Fig. 8.18). LR is inversely proportional to latitude so it is very large in the tropics. However, the high vorticity in tropical cyclones reduces the Rossby radius and enables tropical cyclones to last for many days and even weeks."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2014, 02:38:05 AM
Today the BoM 30-day moving average fluctuated back down from +2.9 yesterday to +2.3 today(as can be seen at the following link and the attached image), so it is still neutral:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 12, 2014, 03:29:56 PM
The first weekly reading above +0.5 C by the CPC was observed on May 7th, showing we have now begun El Niño conditions.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ospo.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fsst%2Fanomaly%2F2014%2Fanomnight.5.12.2014.gif&hash=84479264c55b0df66e513df5b25fc5a3)

Niño 1+2 is 1.2C above average, Niño 3 at 0.6C, Niño 4 at 0.8C. These are all the highest readings for these regions since at least 2012. Niño 4 highest since 2010.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2014, 04:36:59 PM
To follow-up on deep octopus's announcement that El Nino conditions have begun per the Nino3.4 index, I note that per NOAA's definition the three month average for this index needs to remain above +0.5 for 5 consecutive overlapping three month periods for this to count as an official El Nino event, but nevertheless the clock is now ticking.  Furthermore, the attached images from NOAA of the subsurface Equatorial Pacific Temperature Anomalies indicates that the second EKW is steadily moving eastward, which will almost guarantee that the Nino3.4 index will increase for at least the next two months; which may well give the atmosphere sufficient time to reorganize itself into a El Nino condition (while the atmosphere is currently in a neutral condition):

Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2014, 04:43:48 PM
As a further indication that an El Nino condition is now strengthening the attached NOAA graph of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Upper Ocean Heat Temperature Anomalies through about May 8 2014, indicate that this value will remain above 1.2 and appears to be increasing as the second EKW continues to move eastward:
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2014, 04:58:21 PM
The first attached image from NOAA's weekly ENSO status report issued May 12 2014, of the Equatorial Pacific Heat Content Evolution, shows that the indicated weak upwell phase between the first and second EKW is not gaining any strength; which indicates that the El Nino should continue to strengthen.

The second attached image of the NOAA MJO forecast issues May 12 2014, shows that the MJO is now over half way across the Indian Ocean, but appears to be weakening.  Nevertheless, the location of the MJO raises that possibility that it might arrive in the Western Equatorial Pacific by the last week in May, or the first week in June, when the SOI forecast is indicated to favor El Nino development.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: Sigmetnow on May 12, 2014, 09:00:13 PM
All ENSO, all the time!  :D

NOAA starts an ENSO blog.
Quote
A team of climate scientists—actual nerds!—discuss the current El Niño Watch and offer perspectives and analysis on the progression of El Niño.
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all (http://www.climate.gov/news-features/department/8443/all)
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 12, 2014, 10:23:11 PM
I can't remember whether the following linked reference has been cited before, but it seem particularly relevant to the possibility that the MJO and/or WWBs could influence the El Nino condition by the end of Spring:

Andrew M. Chiodi, D. E. Harrison, Gabriel A. Vecchi. (2014) Subseasonal Atmospheric Variability and El Niño Waveguide Warming: Observed Effects of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Westerly Wind Events. Journal of Climate 27:10, 3619-3642

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00547.1 (http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00547.1)

"Westerly wind events (WWEs) have previously been shown to initiate equatorial Pacific waveguide warming. The relationship between WWEs and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) activity, as well as the role of MJO events in initiating waveguide warming, is reconsidered here over the 1986–2010 period. WWEs are identified in observations of near-surface zonal winds using an objective scheme. MJO events are defined using a widely used index, and 64 are identified that occur when the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in its neutral state. Of these MJO events, 43 have one or more embedded WWEs and 21 do not. The evolution of sea surface temperature anomaly over the equatorial Pacific waveguide following the westerly surface wind phase of the MJO over the western equatorial Pacific is examined. Waveguide warming is found for the MJO with WWE events in similar magnitudes as following the WWEs not embedded in an MJO. There is very little statistically significant waveguide warming following MJO events that do not contain an embedded WWE. The observed SST anomaly changes are well reproduced in an ocean general circulation model forced with the respective composite wind stress anomalies. Further, it is found that the occurrence of an MJO event does not significantly affect the likelihood that a WWE will occur. These results extend and confirm the earlier results of Vecchi with a near doubling of the period of study. It is suggested that understanding the sources and predictability of tropical Pacific westerly wind events remains essential to improving predictions of the onset of El Niño events."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: deep octopus on May 13, 2014, 02:01:11 AM
Peter Sinclair of Climate Crocks (and also a contributor to the Yale Climate Forum) has released both videos of his interview with Kevin Trenberth on the 2014 El Niño. In the second video, he goes into the effect of PDO on ENSO tendencies in the first half, but later, around the 7 minute mark, he directs towards the pile up of warm water around the Philippines (with sea level rising up to 8 inches just prior to the WWB activity earlier this year.) His prediction for the next decade given a shift to warm PDO is quite dramatic: a 0.2-0.3 C rise in global surface temperatures. As he describes, the 2014-2023 decade (roughly speaking), could be a sharp "step" up.

Kevin Trenberth on El Nino Part 2 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgCgsxPbAvk#ws)

In light of today's heavy release of two individual studies on the West Antarctic ice collapse, I think the next decade (this El Niño event included) could be pivotal in greatly affecting the Amundsen Sea glaciers.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2014, 02:24:33 AM
Great link to the Kevin Trenberth video (part 2).

The attached image shows that the SOI (30-day moving average) has fluctuated up from +2.3 to +2.4 today according to the BoM.  I imagine that tomorrow that value will fluctuate down, as we continue in an atmospherically neutral condition.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2014, 04:12:56 PM
The first attached image shows that according to the BoM the weekly average Nino3.4 index for the week ending May 11 2014 increased to a value of +0.54, indicating a slowly strengthening El Nino event.

The second attached image shows that MJO has stalled in the mid-Indian Ocean (which might possibly (or not) give the SOI more time to become more negative before the MJO arrives in the Western Equatorial Pacific).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2014, 04:15:37 PM
The BoM weekly average Nino 1, 2, 3 & 4 indices for the week ending May 11 2014 all support a strengthening El Nino condition and are shown in the first, second, third and fourth, images, respectively.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2014, 11:34:27 PM
The linked research shows how El Nino events can impact the length of a day by up to a little over 0.1 milliseconds:

O. de Viron and J. O. Dickey, (2014), "The two types of El-Nino and their impacts on the Length-of-day.", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059948

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059948/abstract;jsessionid=6FE1950A6EA83369C410B89D9F0B5B22.f03t03 (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059948/abstract;jsessionid=6FE1950A6EA83369C410B89D9F0B5B22.f03t03)

Abstract: "At the interannual to decadal timescale, the changes in the Earth rotation rate are linked with the El-Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena through changes in the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. As climatic studies demonstrate that there were two types of El-Niño events, namely Eastern Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) events, we investigate how each of them affect the Atmospheric Angular Momentum. We show in particular that EP events are associated with stronger variations of the Atmospheric Angular Momentum and length-of-day. We explain this difference by the stronger pressure gradient over the major mountain ranges, due to a stronger and more efficiently localized pressure dipole over the Pacific Ocean in the case of EP events."

Also, see the following quote from the linked website:

http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/05/how-el-nino-temporarily-slowa-the-earths-rotation/ (http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/05/how-el-nino-temporarily-slowa-the-earths-rotation/)

Quote: "Here’s how the researchers think this works: In an Eastern Pacific El Niño, low atmospheric pressures tend to set up on the western sides of the Andes, Rockies, and Himalayas, with higher pressures on the other side of the mountains. That actually means the atmosphere is pushing westward, against those mountains. And the force of that push provides a torque opposing the Earth’s rotation. Stronger winds over the northern part of the Pacific, meanwhile, apply a frictional force in the opposite direction that negates the mountain torque over time.

In a Central Pacific El Niño, the high and low pressure regions don’t line up as well with the mountain ranges, and so the torque is smaller. In La Niña conditions, these processes play out in reverse, acting to make the day a little shorter rather than longer.

As wild as it sounds, we are able to calculate the minute changes in Earth’s rotational velocity that result from these forces. In fact, we’ve been able to measure them, by using precise atomic clocks and bouncing lasers off reflectors left on the Moon, for example."
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 13, 2014, 11:45:47 PM
Peter Sinclair of Climate Crocks (and also a contributor to the Yale Climate Forum) has released both videos of his interview with Kevin Trenberth on the 2014 El Niño. In the second video, he goes into the effect of PDO on ENSO tendencies in the first half, but later, around the 7 minute mark, he directs towards the pile up of warm water around the Philippines (with sea level rising up to 8 inches just prior to the WWB activity earlier this year.) His prediction for the next decade given a shift to warm PDO is quite dramatic: a 0.2-0.3 C rise in global surface temperatures. As he describes, the 2014-2023 decade (roughly speaking), could be a sharp "step" up.


In Reply 266, I provide logic indicating the risk that by 2029, the mean global temperature could be 0.95 degrees C higher than today, if the positive PDO phase lasts that long.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2014, 03:05:20 AM
The BoM 30-day moving average SOI has fluctuated down to +1.1 today but the plot has not been updated yet, so I will post it when it is available (so here it is).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 14, 2014, 08:52:09 AM
This is a Pacific detail I took from CDAS-SFLUX SST 13 th of May, with the four ENSO regions marked as boxes (and the Equator in red):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FENSOregions13052014small_zps0271b0ee.jpg&hash=b080dc2bbe7855d8fc052d8583bb2c04)

The warming is still getting stronger, as to be expected most in 1+2:
1+2    1.354
3   0.644
3+4   0.473
4   0.777
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 14, 2014, 09:16:37 AM
Can this event still fizzle?
Taking the early May situation in 2012 as example, there's not much reason to suppose it does. The surfacing of warmer waters in 1+2 is much stronger, the warm pool in the West Pacific was almost non-existent in '12.
Scrolling back through the Nino-years, '09 doesn't match, the only event comparable is 1997. And that one still had less anomaly in the extreme Western Pacific...
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: werther on May 14, 2014, 11:12:09 AM
In the slipstream of the developing ENSO event there seem to coincide various anomalous side-effects.
What to make from relatively cool temps over India and China, combined with wetter and, in the case of South China, much wetter weather?
It looks like what could be expected for China later in an El Nino season. It may be that interfering teleconnections are at work: PDO and Asian-Pacific Oscillation.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2014, 04:10:33 PM
Attached is today's (May 14 2014) MJO forecast (ensemble by NOAA) showing that the MJO has weakened and remains around the middle of the Indian Ocean.
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2014, 04:56:52 PM
Attached is NASA's Jason-2 measurement of residual sea level (relative/regional sea level rise) on May 6 2014.  This image clearly shows the second EKW moving eastward from the equatorial date line, and also clearly shows that the first EKW is sending CTWs (coastally trapped Kelvin waves) both northward and southward from Ecuador; therefore, California may start to see the effect of the first CTW before the end of June and the second EKW should produce another weaker CTW moving northward that may arrive in California by the end of summer (depending on how the current El Nino develops more CTWs may, or may not, arrive off the coast of California in the late Fall and Winter).
Title: Re: 2014 El Nino?
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 14, 2014, 06:12:05 PM
The attached simplified cartoon of the relationships/cycles of Pacific Ocean Kelvin waves (Equatorial Kelvin waves, EKWs, Rossby waves and Coastal Trapped (Kelvin) Waves, CTWs), and the associated quote from the following link related to the attached image, explains: (a) How the westward traveling shallow Rossby waves (created by the EKWs interaction with South America) moves at about 1/3rd the speed of the EKW but which convey relatively warm water back into the Nino3.4 zone thus serving to further raise the Nino3.4 index, and further suppress the trade winds, later this summer; and (b) Once the westward traveling Rossby waves interact with the Maritime Continent, it will likely send back an upwelling Kelvin wave in the Spring of 2015 that will likely serve to dissipate the current El Nino event, in that timeframe:

http://www.tahan.com/charlie/research/physics/earth_science/nino/3356/main/course/moreintro.html (http://www.tahan.com/charlie/research/physics/earth_science/nino/3356/main/course/moreintro.html)


Quote: "The ENSO cycle can also be explained through the movement of waves in the Pacific as mentioned above. The cycle starts with warm water traveling from the western Pacific to the eastern Pacific in the form of Kelvin waves. After roughly three to four months [Edward Laws, 1992] of traveling across the Pacific along the equator, the Kelvin waves reach the western coast of South America where they mix with the cool Peru Current system; therefore raising sea levels and sea level temperatures in the region. Upon reaching the coast, the water forks to the north and south and causes El Niño conditions to the south.Because of the changes in sea-level and sea-temperature due to the Kelvin waves, an infinite amount of Rossby waves are formed and move back over the Pacific. The Rossby waves, as mentioned before, are much slower than the Kelvin waves and can take anywhere from nine months to four years [Edward Laws, 1992] to cross the Pacific.  Waves move slower when the distance from the equator is increased. (This wave delay is key to the