Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2014, 02:38:14 PM

Title: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 11, 2014, 02:38:14 PM
This may seem a trifle premature. However sunlight has returned north of 80 degrees, and it looks like there's currently some open water up there. As a result I've been musing about various matters that don't seem to quite fit in anywhere else, and so now I've taken the plunge with this thread!

To set the ball rolling, here's an image of Svalbard on March 7th, courtesy of Terra bands 3/6/7 (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-07&map=201600,-930240,1792896,-217536). Would anyone care to suggest what's causing the blue/green colours north of the islands (amongst other places)?

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 11, 2014, 04:57:46 PM
This may seem a trifle premature. However sunlight has returned north of 80 degrees, and it looks like there's currently some open water up there. As a result I've been musing about various matters that don't seem to quite fit in anywhere else, and so now I've taken the plunge with this thread!

To set the ball rolling, here's an image of Svalbard on March 7th, courtesy of .... Would anyone care to suggest what's causing the blue/green colours north of the islands (amongst other places)?
That area of water has been open most of the refreeze season.  I don't think you are premature; there's discussion we may have hit peak extent in March 6th.  We *might* have a cold snap which increases extent, but weather and insolation are pushing hard in the opposite direction.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 11, 2014, 06:59:31 PM
This may seem a trifle premature. However sunlight has returned north of 80 degrees, and it looks like there's currently some open water up there. As a result I've been musing about various matters that don't seem to quite fit in anywhere else, and so now I've taken the plunge with this thread!

Would anyone care to suggest what's causing the blue/green colours north of the islands (amongst other places)?

Jim.

All of the concentration maps show open water north of Svalbard.  Today Svalbard will receive over 10 hours of sunlight.  As jdallen said above, we probably hit the peak extent for 2014 on March 6th.  It would take a gain of over 229K km2 for that date not to hold.  That much gain this late in the year is highly improbable.  I'm wondering whether the intrusion of warm water from the North Atlantic will continue to nibble away at the ice in CAB from that quadrant.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on March 11, 2014, 07:38:57 PM
Time was, I thought that the knock out blow would be delivered here, as Atlantic Water surges straight up through the Fram Strait towards the North Pole.

Chris Reynolds has made me question this; arguing convincingly that as the bathymetry changes in this area, and the sea bottom falls rapidly away, the saline AW will rapidly descend, and not interact so much with the surface sea ice.

So there may be a limit to the AW-provoked ice retreat in this area.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 11, 2014, 08:06:15 PM
The bathymetry may limit the AW intrusion, but ice AW does chase off opens the way for wide scale surface warming via early exposure of high latitude ocean surface to sunlight.  AW is also entering the Barents and pushing on from there; no drop off of ocean bottom there.

I think we have a triple threat coming up this year. 

1) Open exposure of sea surface across the Greenland and Barents Seas, inclusive of exposed Arctic water north of 80N near Svalbard

2) Thinner ice and potentially warmer river inflows along the Siberian coast

3) Significant volume of older, thicker ice which has already been shoved into the Beaufort "ice grinder".

The thin, weak ice in the Bering may play a role as well, as if it disappears early, that will similarly increase the regions heat budget.

I suspect this melt season we will be watching a sharper than usual battle between competing feedback mechanisms.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 11, 2014, 09:28:20 PM
Time was, I thought that the knock out blow would be delivered here, as Atlantic Water surges straight up through the Fram Strait towards the North Pole.

Chris Reynolds has made me question this; arguing convincingly that as the bathymetry changes in this area, and the sea bottom falls rapidly away, the saline AW will rapidly descend, and not interact so much with the surface sea ice.

So there may be a limit to the AW-provoked ice retreat in this area.

As the Atlantic continues to warm with this salty warmer water spilling into the deep Arctic basin, could the Gakkel Ridge or the more prominent Lomonosov Ridge cause an upwelling of this deep salty warm water in the CAB? Could such an upwelling near these ridges be the cause of the appearance of the Laptev bite?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 11, 2014, 09:48:09 PM
Time was, I thought that the knock out blow would be delivered here, as Atlantic Water surges straight up through the Fram Strait towards the North Pole.

Chris Reynolds has made me question this; arguing convincingly that as the bathymetry changes in this area, and the sea bottom falls rapidly away, the saline AW will rapidly descend, and not interact so much with the surface sea ice.

So there may be a limit to the AW-provoked ice retreat in this area.

As the Atlantic continues to warm with this salty warmer water spilling into the deep Arctic basin, could the Gakkel Ridge or the more prominent Lomonosov Ridge cause an upwelling of this deep salty warm water in the CAB? Could such an upwelling near these ridges be the cause of the appearance of the Laptev bite?

Intriguing but doubtful I think.  Recent reading and discussion suggests warm outflow from Siberian rivers combined with other factors as more plausible.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 11, 2014, 11:30:08 PM
Jim, I think your timing is immaculate, and so I'm making this thread a sticky, replacing the Short to Medium Term Arctic Sea Ice Conditions Discussion (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.0.html) thread.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 12, 2014, 11:17:20 AM
Jim, I think your timing is immaculate.

Thanks Neven! There is however always a chance I might have jumped the gun slightly. As the ever excellent Wipneus points out (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg21697.html#msg21697) this morning, there has been a modest "rebound" in the metrics today. IJIS/JAXA extent  is now at 14,118,547 km2, with the maximum so far standing at 14,255,140 on March 5th.

Apart from all the quantitative stuff I also ponder qualitative matters, even going so far as to delve into human psychology! Whilst we're on the subject of "rebounds", here's part of a "maximum calling" checklist (http://greatwhitecon.info/2014/03/some-sceptical-questions/) I have recently drawn up with the able assistance of the regular readers of the so called "Real Science" blog:

1. Is the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

2. Is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

3. Is the IJIS Arctic sea ice extent number for March 9th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on March 12, 2014, 12:05:19 PM
Given the weather surrounding the Arctic right now I would expect the current maximum to get broken over the next few days and then to melt out fairly quickly as soon as conditions change the new ice is going to be very thin and melt out quite quickly when temperatures shift again.

edit: then again I'm just eye balling temperature graphs probably not a specifically sound basis to make a judgement on.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 12, 2014, 04:10:31 PM
Whilst the NSIDC 5 day average extent is still declining, there's a by now not wholly unexpected uptick in the daily number. It's currently sitting at 14,618,420 km2 versus the current maximum of 14,756,130 on March 6th

Cryosphere Today area (for March 10th) is still going down at 12,887,309 km2
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 12, 2014, 06:00:32 PM
We might see extent pop briefly above the max we saw on March 6th.  If we do, my sense is, it will be less the result of more freezing, more the result of dispersal.

By extension, increasing extent *now* is not likely a positive signal for summer ice retention....
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 12, 2014, 06:24:45 PM
It looks like there will be a significant push of mid-latitude moisture and heat energy into the Kara Sea region beginning in about 3 days.  Long range model forecast.

http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2014031212&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT (http://weather.utah.edu/index.php?runcode=2014031212&t=gfs004&r=NH&d=DT)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 12, 2014, 07:28:06 PM
JD Allen,

The impact of warming AW can be seen in the historic ice extent in March:
http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Jpg/1900/1900_allt.jpg (http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Jpg/1900/1900_allt.jpg)
'Marts', top left is March.

More of those images here:
http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Jpg/ (http://brunnur.vedur.is/pub/trausti/Iskort/Jpg/)

But all the research I've read, and the profiling bouy data, shows the AW layer as being well below the surface over much of the Arctic basin.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 12, 2014, 08:22:15 PM
My first ever reply here.. And my thoughts for this year is that given the last years behavior of the melt season we will see at least a 10 million km2 sea ice melt away.. Regardless of whether the maximum have been reached or not which at this time is more of an academical interest, I will make a somewhat conservative guess based on  which would give a september minima at roughly 3,9-4,0 million km2 due to NSIDC numbers. That would yield the second lowest september minima ever. I don't believe in a new record due to last years cold weather.

My wild card is that the North Pole will be essentially ice free this year... Last year the ice at the NP was very thin and only the cold weather prevented a new era in the human history to be reached..

I also believe that 2015 will be a very nasty year when sea ice will be sloshed away. El Niño seems to be coming. There is potential for another tropical cyclone in the WPAC during the next 7 days which certainly would help the westerly wind burst (WWB) there to continue..
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 12, 2014, 10:01:06 PM
My first ever reply here.. And my thoughts for this year is that given the last years behavior of the melt season we will see at least a 10 million km2 sea ice melt away.. Regardless of whether the maximum have been reached or not which at this time is more of an academical interest, I will make a somewhat conservative guess based on  which would give a september minima at roughly 3,9-4,0 million km2 due to NSIDC numbers. That would yield the second lowest september minima ever. I don't believe in a new record due to last years cold weather.

My wild card is that the North Pole will be essentially ice free this year... Last year the ice at the NP was very thin and only the cold weather prevented a new era in the human history to be reached..

I also believe that 2015 will be a very nasty year when sea ice will be sloshed away. El Niño seems to be coming. There is potential for another tropical cyclone in the WPAC during the next 7 days which certainly would help the westerly wind burst (WWB) there to continue..

Welcome.

I concur that there is an excellent chance that the pole will be mostly open water this year at the end of melt.  I'm a bit more pessimistic regarding extent.  If warmer weather conditions line up the way I think they will, I think this year may be the first to dip below 3.0 million km2.  Not by much, mind, but in that ballpark.  My premise is based on the assumption that all extents are nor created equal; the quality of this years ice at maxima is far poorer than either 2012 or 2013.  Modestly warmer conditions will have a much greater effect than in the past. Serious warmth will be devastating.

The best possible outcome I think we could anticipate ( which I'll give a 5% chance to) is a repeat of 2013.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 13, 2014, 06:35:12 AM
Thanks Neven! There is however always a chance I might have jumped the gun slightly.

Of course, as soon as I say something about timing wrt calling the max, the max will come later.  ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: epiphyte on March 13, 2014, 06:56:06 AM
@neven
Quote
Of course, as soon as I say something about timing wrt calling the max, the max will come later.  ;D

...so if you never call it, it will never happen, right?  ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on March 13, 2014, 07:31:08 AM
Too early to call, I reckon.

Over recent years the shape of the average line has changed, shifting to the right; instead of a normal bell-curve, it starts to increasingly resemble the profile of a cresting wave of seawater travelling from left to right. So Autumn anomalies from the 30year average have been huge; Spring anomalies have been tiny.

The late March-April approach towards the longtime average has surprised and made a fool of me for the last 3 years. Not this time!

OTOH, having been wrong due to not anticipating the late-Spring rally previously does not necessarily prove that I will not be proved wrong this year. Events in the Arctic and my predictions seem to be inversely correlated, at high confidence.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 13, 2014, 08:01:54 AM
Thanks Neven! There is however always a chance I might have jumped the gun slightly.

Of course, as soon as I say something about timing wrt calling the max, the max will come later.  ;D

Has happened to me too. I find odd comfort here, being wrong :-D. I think this year I'll call it on first week of April. If the maximum comes after this it'll be the first.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2014, 08:59:29 AM
IJIS/JAXA extent  is now up to 14,233,829 km2.

Over on the blog Al Rodger has suggested an ultimate binary outcome. Either I will be prove to be "the exact opposite of foolish", or merely "brave". For the moment at least I'm still in the former category!

However now I'm wondering what happens to me if one or more metrics create a new maximum, but others do not? Steve Goddard keeps pulling new rabbits out of his hat, so perhaps I should try the same trick? By way of example, here's how DMI extent (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php) looks at the moment. Obviously it's not at a new low for the date, but maybe the maximum will hold and spare my blushes?



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 13, 2014, 09:11:30 AM
Quote
...perhaps I should try the same trick?
  :D my thoughts also, this is why I started tracking the longer averages, some of them might show this spring as 'the first'!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: TheUAoB on March 13, 2014, 12:03:38 PM
Quote
...perhaps I should try the same trick?
  :D my thoughts also, this is why I started tracking the longer averages, some of them might show this spring as 'the first'!

Given the current wind patterns and resultant ice movement it looks like it could well be possible to hit another peak in maximum extent, but I'm pretty confident area is already on the down-slope.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticicespddrfnowcast.gif&hash=0cda48db52e205f5a15acbce8f6e0387)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 13, 2014, 12:19:16 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1269.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fjj597%2FOldLeatherNeck%2FArcticIceExtentmarch12th2014_zps0d7fed19.jpg&hash=9448285a381930fc5dfb4f5c28fb3536)

Three days ago I would have bet a few pints that we had reached the Extent  maximum for this year!  Now, we are only  21,311 Km2 below the current maximum.  Given that there is so much rubble on all perimeters, it seems foolish to predict within +/- 100k what will happen in the next few days.  I would be hesitant to call the maximum until Extent drops well below14M Km2 and holds that for a few days.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on March 13, 2014, 01:00:54 PM
Is the uptick the result of winds spreading out the already thin ice?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.75,86.75,293 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.75,86.75,293)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 13, 2014, 01:17:23 PM
Is the uptick the result of winds spreading out the already thin ice?


I'm reasonably certain that the current increase in extent is due to wind driven dispersion of the ice. .We're likely to see more dramatic up/down swings as the rubble gets either compacted or dispersed   
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on March 13, 2014, 01:22:08 PM
Is the uptick the result of winds spreading out the already thin ice?


I'm reasonably certain that the current increase in extent is due to wind driven dispersion of the ice. .We're likely to see more dramatic up/down swings as the rubble gets either compacted or dispersed   

Is the uptick the result of winds spreading out the already thin ice?

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.75,86.75,293 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-63.75,86.75,293)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif)

I'm pretty sure it's combination of wind dispersion and sudden temperature reversal. I did predict that we would see the extent increase from eye balling projected temperature graphs earlier in the thread.

Don't discount the effects of weather on the system the water and air temperatures are still at the point where a +-4 degree swing either way means large ice increases or sudden melting.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2014, 01:29:24 PM
Some pretty pictures can be seen via WorldView today. Here's a snapshot of some fresh ice near Svalbard (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-13&map=644522.541177,-572800,1385386.541177,-198528), but please feel free to explore for yourself:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on March 13, 2014, 02:04:58 PM
So how could the max pan out?

Looking at the next 10-day forecast by ECMWF, the general SLP-pattern is not very different from the one last year (NCEP/NCAR).  The steering is clockwise, very rough Bering to Fram.
A polar high and a Greenland ridge resulted in mild (for the time of year) 1000Mb temps then, producing a smooth extent fall of about 20K/day after the max 14th March.
I assume this fall will prove close to what’s about to unfold now.

For a while, the Northerlies, combined with -15 to -20 temps, can cause some flimsy extent growth on the Atlantic side. ECMWF suggests the ‘back door’ to get interesting later on (Bering/Chukchi). That’s what might be decisive; there’s just not enough cold left to really extend the freezing season. Most of what’s left is still running to wear out Canadians and Americans (wish you some spring weather soon …).

Given the pattern, I’d point at 19 or 20 March maybe to become the max day. How much over 14255K depends on how the rubble and flimsiness will be counted by IJIS/JAXA.

BTW Nice pic of rippling frozen foam and nilas, Jim. I suppose it won't get a chance to stabilize anymore.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 13, 2014, 06:02:16 PM
No blushing needed from me just yet. The NSIDC daily extent number for the 12th came out up from 14,618,420 at 14,753,210 km2.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 14, 2014, 09:44:05 AM
IJIS/JAXA extent (http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm) is now up to 14,300,508 km2 for March 13th. A new maximum by a whisker  :-[

Cryosphere Today area still seems to be stuck at 12,887,309 on 2014.1863 :(
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 14, 2014, 09:46:36 AM
Welcome to the club, Jim!  ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on March 14, 2014, 09:54:20 AM
Cryosphere Today area still seems to be stuck at 12,887,309 on 2014.1863 :(

When unstuck, expect 3 positive centuries:

+116.6   +45.8  +115.7  +113.6

(from NSIDC gridded, calculated the CT way, in 1000 km2)




Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 14, 2014, 10:44:18 AM
Welcome to the club, Jim!  ;D

I have here a very long list of metrics. Only one domino has fallen so far. Don't start gloating just yet!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 14, 2014, 01:33:32 PM
It's a bit hard to be sure from the graph, but I fear another domino has already fallen  :-[

Here's the "new" 15% threshold version of DMI extent (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php):
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 14, 2014, 05:38:57 PM
The NSIDC numbers are out. The 5 day average (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) shows an uptick to 14,664,000  km2, but is still below the peak of 14,697,000 on March 7th. A (temporary?) reprieve for one domino at least  8)

The daily figure (ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv) is now up to 14,860,470, which constitutes a new maximum  :-[

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 14, 2014, 06:28:33 PM
The NSIDC numbers are out... shows an uptick to 14,664,000  km2, but is still below the peak of 14,697,000 on March 7th. A (temporary?) reprieve for one domino at least  8)

The ... is now up to 14,860,470, which constitutes a new maximum  :-[

Oh well.  That said, bumping along the bottom of the minus 2SD curve doesn't exactly indicate robust freezing conditions ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChasingIce on March 14, 2014, 07:42:51 PM
2SD is fine with me.

This Winter has sucked in the Midwest.  :P
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2014, 12:11:34 AM
Nice clear view of the Nares Strait today, from Terra via WorldView (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-14&map=-816096,-1229824,-453856,-1053696)

It's looking a bit crumbly at the southern end today. Try looking back a few days as well. Look further south too.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 15, 2014, 11:04:13 AM
Todays number from IARC-JAXA was rather nice with only a very small uptick which makes me quite confident to say that the maximum is reached or almost reached. Small fluctuations the next days will next week switch to a rather sharp decrease as we now are entering the second half of march..

The ECMWF forecast for the next 10 days is quite interesting.. It seems to be a one more (and last?!) cold blast to North America while the Siberia is quickly warming up  while the Arctic cold is displaced for NA. The 850 temp for +240h indicates warm air at Berings sea.

For next week I say: Let the melting season 2014 begin!!! :)

And could someone please tell me who is white and king of the ice? :) Where I live the Kings name is King Bore...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2014, 11:14:50 AM
Welcome Lord Vader! Are you by any chance from somewhere near Kiruna (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,770)?

As luck would have it I do know a very good candidate for the position of Princess of the Ice. Snow White (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon)!

Whilst we wait to see if any more area/extent dominoes fall she and I have been pondering the even more controversial subject of sea ice thickness (http://greatwhitecon.info/2014/03/the-truth-about-arctic-sea-ice-thickness/). 

Obviously all that new ice around Svalbard is pretty thin, but what about the "old" ice in the Beaufort Sea we asked ourselves. Surely that must be pretty thick by now? According to ice mass balance buoys 2013F (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013F.htm) and 2013G (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013G.htm), apparently not!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on March 15, 2014, 01:59:52 PM
Well, king of the ice got me too. I kept trying Ymir, but that wasn't good enough.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2014, 02:30:00 PM
Cryosphere Today has become unstuck, and another domino has fallen. CT area is up to 13,278,053 km2, a new maximum for the year  :-[
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 15, 2014, 05:16:20 PM
I don't think that volume conditions in the Arctic Ocean present a major impediment to substantial melt this year.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/piomas-gridded-data-february-2014.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/piomas-gridded-data-february-2014.html)
Weather will be the decider.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2014, 05:51:41 PM
Thanks Chris. Most interesting as always.

For what it's worth, given my current track record, I agree with you about the impediments and the weather!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 15, 2014, 08:04:39 PM
Quite a nice view North of Svalbard today. Zoom in on WorldView (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-15&map=303328,-813504,1752288,-100800) and take a closer look at the ice edge:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wanderer on March 16, 2014, 09:40:46 AM
What's the weather forecast for next week?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 16, 2014, 09:55:08 AM
Quite a nice view North of Svalbard today.

Ugh that looks nasty.  The heat coming out of the water strikes me as impressive (cloud trains)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 16, 2014, 10:54:41 AM
Another small uptick today according to IARC-JAXA... :(  But I must say I find the ECMWF long range forecast highly interesting! A high pressure centered just north of Canada combined with a low pressure area streching over the whole Russia yielding an almost straight wind the whole way from the Pacific side to Svalbard.. That should give a very impressive transportation through Fram straight... This situation is even more prominent in the GFS +144-180 h...

Another interesting thing is that the GBH which have been quite abscent during virtually the whole winter seems to be building in more and more now.

Thanks Jim Hunt!:) And, everything is relative but if we consider about 1000 km south from Kiruna as "close" then the answer is "yes" :) The spring is here and today is a really sunny day! :D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 16, 2014, 11:00:51 AM
What's the weather forecast for next week?

Lord Vader has touched on some aspects. Here's the GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Sunday via the Climate Reanalyzer (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php):

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 17, 2014, 08:30:57 AM
What's the weather forecast for next week?

Lord Vader has touched on some aspects. Here's the GFS temperature anomaly forecast for next Sunday...

Looks like a blowtorch starts Friday-ish from the Chikuchi across the ESS around to Svalbard.  Probability peak is hit in the next 3-4 Days?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 17, 2014, 02:55:35 PM
Probability peak is hit in the next 3-4 Days?

Too late to save the University of Bremen extent (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/extent_n_running_mean_F17_regular.png) domino  :-[

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: OldLeatherneck on March 17, 2014, 03:10:15 PM

Too late to save the University of Bremen extent (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/extent_n_running_mean_F17_regular.png) domino  :-[

Speaking of crashing dominoes....this is ugly!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1269.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fjj597%2FOldLeatherNeck%2FArcticIceExtentmarch16th2014_zps639444df.jpg&hash=b10b460dda4bcb5d4421380e3f7ebe31)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 17, 2014, 05:10:16 PM
I'm rapidly running out of dominoes!

NSIDC 5 day average extent is in at 14,832,000. A new maximum for the year  :-[
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 17, 2014, 08:02:58 PM
A slightly cloudy view (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-17&map=-427488,1249792,1021472,1962496) of some "cracks" that have opened up in the Laptev Sea over the last couple of days.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChasingIce on March 18, 2014, 12:16:02 AM
I'm rapidly running out of dominoes!

What metric defines your remaining dominoes?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: opensheart on March 18, 2014, 12:39:48 AM
Could the cold that builds up on the “Cold Continents” stay on the cold continents as long as they are cooling faster than the ocean?  Then as the northern hemisphere starts getting more solar energy, the continents are no longer cooling faster than the oceans, or perhaps start to reverse and warm up, the cold moves/spreads off the continents and onto the not so fast warming ocean.    Hence we see the pattern that the ice extent is sluggish through the whole freezing season until the end.   Then we see a sprint for the finish line and the ice extent grows significantly right at the end.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 18, 2014, 10:16:51 AM
What metric defines your remaining dominoes?

My terminology derives from the watch the Arctic Sea Ice Blog kept during the 2012 melting season. See e.g.

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-1-uni-bremen-sea-ice-extent.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-1-uni-bremen-sea-ice-extent.html)

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg20960.html#msg20960) to my list.

Failing that I reserve the right to clutch at any straw that might enable me to cover my embarrassment! My own custom metric perhaps?

"Calculating area and extent from gridded concentration data (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,782.0)"

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on March 18, 2014, 11:15:55 AM

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg20960.html#msg20960) to my list.


I have put this together:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt)

Is it useful, can I do better? Let me know.

Alexander Beitsch has let me know that we can expect that all data we be reprocessed at some time, so all this is still prematurely and experimental.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on March 18, 2014, 12:22:58 PM

If Wipneus releases the daily figures I might add his home brew AMSR2 area/extent (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg20960.html#msg20960) to my list.


I have put this together:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt)

Is it useful, can I do better? Let me know.

Alexander Beitsch has let me know that we can expect that all data we be reprocessed at some time, so all this is still prematurely and experimental.

There is a good chance that domino doesn't fall  :)  (but only because it starts in 2013  ;) )

Even dominoes for averages from 1 Feb seem likely to fall (unless they already have fallen?).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 18, 2014, 12:25:48 PM
I have put this together

It is exceedingly useful Wipneus. Many thanks yet again for all your hard work!

The preliminary nature of the data is understood.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 18, 2014, 01:10:51 PM
A preliminary view of the open water north of 80 degrees today, courtesy of Aqua via WorldView: (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-18&map=155872,-607104,1604832,105600)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 18, 2014, 08:06:24 PM
A preliminary view of the open water north of 80 degrees today, courtesy of Aqua
The extensive open water north and west of Svalbard I've been aware of... But the extensive, highly fractured margin of the pack ice is new and disturbing.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Laurent on March 18, 2014, 08:21:04 PM
Wouaou, now I know why I am stuck on this forum, thank you so much.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 18, 2014, 10:55:11 PM
Browsing through the image east from Svalbard, It looks like the fracturing is pretty consistent all along the Barents to the Kara Sea, and picks up in the ESS and around the new Siberian Islands. The ice already to be highly mobile across ~3000 KM of its margins in the eastern hemisphere.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 19, 2014, 04:30:23 PM
Thanks Wipneus
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: pikaia on March 20, 2014, 12:13:06 AM
The Icelandic volcano Hekla is threatening to erupt soon. Perhaps the ash will reduce the albedo of the Arctic ice and speed up melting?

http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon (http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 20, 2014, 01:27:56 PM
The AMSR2 view of the cracks visible in the MODIS image above, courtesy of the University of Hamburg (ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/):
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 20, 2014, 04:27:48 PM
Going by the NSIDC data, the recent increases haven't been the largest on record for the time of year. 1985 beat this year comfortably, gaining 575k between the 9th and 17th.

Anywho, here are a few more graphs for the melt season.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNc06C8A.jpg&hash=724a20b887bd48c913e37b8fa7c71661)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDALY16U.jpg&hash=750fb452499a0affdd594dda4ad64ed5)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JimD on March 20, 2014, 05:14:27 PM
The Icelandic volcano Hekla is threatening to erupt soon. Perhaps the ash will reduce the albedo of the Arctic ice and speed up melting?

http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon (http://www.newsoficeland.com/eco/item/405-hekla-volcano-might-eerupt-soon)

http://www.ibtimes.com/icelands-hekla-volcano-shows-activity-could-another-ash-cloud-ground-european-air-travel-1153669 (http://www.ibtimes.com/icelands-hekla-volcano-shows-activity-could-another-ash-cloud-ground-european-air-travel-1153669)

Seems that its ash cloud is very unpredictable.  Sometimes the ash is shot very high and drifts far and other times there is hardly any and it does not leave the island.  Big eruptions that shoot ash high normally cool the atmosphere for a time.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 20, 2014, 08:46:12 PM
I think we shouldn't focus too much on the maximum, which should be occuring either today or tomorrow, but rather look at the forecast for the rest of the month. What is appearent from Wipneus maps is that the ice have started to melt away at the southern tip of Greenland. The current conditions have also been very favorable for ice transportation at both Frem strait, Labrador sea, St Lawrence basin and Berings sea.. However, these conditions will start to deteriorate during the coming days.

First, a powerful cyclone seems to head for Okhotsk basin as for Berings sea. That will for certain affect the ice given how thin it is there.

Second, the huge ice transportation through Frem strait will also cease to operate next week and at +144h at the ECMWF a cyclone will head for Svalbard and we all know how thin that ice is.

Third, I'm rather sure that the ice at St Lawrence will be sloshed away next week as a nor' easter will smash the North American east coast with very windy conditions.

Finally, here in Sweden we have had some ice growth in the Bothnian bay the last days but warmer weather is in sight there. there have also been some ice growth in the Finnish bay but I think it will melt away quite rapidly during the coming week or so. And let's not forget the Great lakes.. These numbers are however very small...

As a last thing, compare Wipneus ice maps between march 14 and 19 at Svalbard... :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 21, 2014, 12:22:47 AM
The AMSR2 view of the cracks visible in the MODIS image above, courtesy of....

Those cracks and low concentration are very disturbing to look at.  It looks like that already?   On the first day of spring?!

 :o
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2014, 05:57:47 PM
I don't know where they keep their numbers, but the University of Bremen's extent graph (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/extent_n_running_mean_F17_regular.png) now shows a noticeable recent decline:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 21, 2014, 07:18:13 PM
Interesting post from Robert Scribbler:
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/a-siberian-heat-wave-is-breaking-kara-sea-ice-in-march-so-is-it-time-to-start-thinking-about-warm-arctic-rivers/ (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/03/20/a-siberian-heat-wave-is-breaking-kara-sea-ice-in-march-so-is-it-time-to-start-thinking-about-warm-arctic-rivers/)

Quote
A Siberian Heat Wave is Breaking Kara Sea Ice In March, So is it Time to Start Thinking about Hot Arctic Rivers?

There’s a heatwave in Dickson, Russia today. But if you were standing on the shores of this port city on the Kara Sea in the far north, you might not realize it. The forecast high? 29 degrees Fahrenheit....

...Heat Wave Breaking up Ice in the Kara Sea

Such anomalous warmth is enough to put a heavy strain on sea ice. The ice freezes and melts at around 28 degrees F. So extended periods near or above this temperature can have an impact on ice integrity. The ice gets hit by warmer air even as it floats over warmer waters. It’s a kind of one-two punch that can be pretty devastating to sea ice integrity.

And we see just this kind of situation over the past two weeks in the region of the Kara Sea near Port Dickson.

Normally, this frigid ocean zone is covered in a stable sheet of ice called land fast ice. The ice is anchored to the land at various points and tends to remain solid due to reduced movement caused by grounding on the surrounding land features. When the land fast ice starts to go, it usually presages melt.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChasingIce on March 21, 2014, 07:33:52 PM
I don't know where they keep their numbers, but the University of Bremen's extent graph (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmis/extent_n_running_mean_F17_regular.png) now shows a noticeable recent decline:

NSIDC showed a drop for the 19th, so that may be it.  Do you know how often they update?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 21, 2014, 07:39:20 PM
Daily NSIDC for the 20th is back up to a new high of 14,960,310. The Bremen chart says "Updated March 21st" at the bottom, but I snipped that bit!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 21, 2014, 07:41:18 PM
Interesting Chris!! :)

In my last post I forgot to say that I believe we'll see a very rapid drop in the SIE in the coming week or so. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back below 14 million square km before march 31... It will just say "pop" next week... :) What do you think people?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 21, 2014, 07:48:59 PM
Major torching unfolding and still to come in the arctic.  With the dipole wind pattern this means ice will be rocketed pretty fast towards the Atlantic side/Fram while new ice forms along the shore to replace it. You can see it very clear on modis.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fjn6bNQx.png%3F1&hash=cc1ddc122bb4fa044e1f751b6fb5300a)


The other problem is Russian snow cover is in bad shape this year.

The Western half of Russia is in terrible shape.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on March 21, 2014, 09:58:47 PM
Interesting Chris!! :)

In my last post I forgot to say that I believe we'll see a very rapid drop in the SIE in the coming week or so. I wouldn't be surprised if we are back below 14 million square km before march 31... It will just say "pop" next week... :) What do you think people?

I don't know. I find no relationship between low maximums and the following minimum. It seems reasonable to expect such a relationship because open water starts ice albedo feedback, and early open water should start the feedback early. I suspect that for the Pacific sector the Bering Straits represent a bottle neck that breaks such a process.

The possibility of an early start within the Arctic Ocean due to warm river waters seems like more of a likely factor in initiating a rapid start to the melt season within the Arctic Ocean. But typically that's May.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChasingIce on March 22, 2014, 05:54:14 AM
Daily NSIDC for the 20th is back up to a new high of 14,960,310. The Bremen chart says "Updated March 21st" at the bottom, but I snipped that bit!
Then that leads me to believe they're not posting dailies, and instead are posting some sort running mean (2-day? 3-day?)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on March 22, 2014, 08:34:13 AM
Jaxa/IJIS has ended an 11 day stretch of continuous increases. The attached difference map shows where (according to Jaxa L3 data) the extent increased and where it went down.
Increases mostly in the Barents section, of the low latitude regions Okhotsk more than St.Lawrence.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 22, 2014, 12:22:27 PM
Thanks to the heads up from Lars over on the SMOS thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg22572.html#msg22572), here's a picture of the RV Lance near the ice edge north of Svalbard on March 17th:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fblogs.esa.int%2Fcampaignearth%2Ffiles%2F2014%2F03%2FSMOS9ce-lance_ice.jpg&hash=4a0cf73372fe3e26c20f336d4ca22530)

Photo credit ESA/Matthias Drusch (http://blogs.esa.int/campaignearth/2014/03/18/smos-ice-the-calm-before-the-storm/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 22, 2014, 12:32:24 PM
Looks as though we could see some significant losses next week.

The favourable conditions in the Bering sea have now gone, and have been replaced with a tendency for for mild southerly winds with high pressure setting up over the Beaufort sea and stretching south through Alaska. The same will be true for the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean regions next week, as high pressure over Scandinavia and the North Sea begins direct southerly winds over the region.

The change around the Bering straight can already be seen, with relatively mild upper air temperatures and generally slack or southerly winds pushing into the Chukchi sea.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F0GTcvWN.png&hash=c1c7fda072c57b361f54e792452c6f03) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXkRPHm4.png&hash=e8c11137f0045c2a86fd1a465cef0afd)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FD24q711.png&hash=c557ddc7d276318f686ca04843b4b7e2) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FAhoJJXG.png&hash=c2704fd7cddc7bac5e4dcc5bcdb2cedd)


Early next week, the Barents and Atlantic sector of the central Arctic joins in as blocking high over Scandinavia and the North Sea directs weather systems northward.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpZNjhOR.png&hash=13326e6c81e99d2d4494e77d8110c8e4) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwuQcl3C.png&hash=395b0cd448e1bf1540106f823fd1cc01)

By 5 days out we have very mild air flooding the Arctic from both sides, in around areas with fresh/broken ice, ripe for melt and compaction.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fuaan7PO.png&hash=f8bd50ce112694125a5852171aa3295e) (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQFLVwGZ.png&hash=3287b23a6a7e568d813da02f3026569c)

Hints of a dipole pattern emerging, which, while not necessarily correlated with massive ice loss this early in the season, could certainly leave the pack in a very fragile state for the summer.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 22, 2014, 12:37:49 PM
In my increasingly frantic search for an Arctic area/extent domino that hasn't fallen yet, I've been investigating Domino #5 - Arctic Basin sea ice area (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-5-arctic-basin-sea-ice-area.html). Arguably the most important of all.

Here's the Cryosphere Today version of that metric:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farctic.atmos.uiuc.edu%2Fcryosphere%2FIMAGES%2Frecent365.anom.region.1.jpg&hash=b4aa15f66699d75659dffadcc3ae57c7)

The maximum was way back in December 2013, and it doesn't look like being breached any day soon.  8)

Here's another chart based on the preliminary AMSR2 data provided by Wipneus (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg22186.html#msg22186), which confirms that conclusion!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on March 22, 2014, 01:15:43 PM
In my increasingly frantic search for an Arctic area/extent domino that hasn't fallen yet, I've been investigating Domino #5 - Arctic Basin sea ice area (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/record-dominoes-5-arctic-basin-sea-ice-area.html). Arguably the most important of all.

Here's the Cryosphere Today version of that metric:

But does it matter that ....

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farctic.atmos.uiuc.edu%2Fcryosphere%2FIMAGES%2Fregion.all.anom.region.1.jpg&hash=1e8d159101a0c161bebf3fd473dfbf0a)

1987 appears to still hold the record low maximum for that metric? !!! :o  :o  ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Buddy on March 22, 2014, 01:37:44 PM
Look what the El Nino did to the Arctic basin in 1998 - 1999 to the minimum.  Maybe a hint as to what would happen when the next super El Nino hits.....

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 22, 2014, 03:57:15 PM
A nice clear view of the Bering Sea yesterday, courtesy of Aqua via NASA WorldView (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-21&map=-3423456,1554176,-1997024,2301696)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: davidsanger on March 23, 2014, 05:00:16 AM
Jaxa/IJIS  down 122,970 in the last two days. Maybe finally turned the corner?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 05:55:08 AM
Models show a dipole pattern the next 10 days on.

There is going to be a lot clear sunny days over parts of the arctic with that big ridge over the Pacific side as well as the Southerly wind influx.

Bad for that side this early on.


Eurasian snow cover also looks horrible.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 07:20:01 AM
Major differences this year versus last year.  Very noticeable.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9a64dz6.gif&hash=7c068805c5781349dd21aaacee390356)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 08:17:22 AM
Both the GFS and EURO are terrible for the ice the next 10 days.

But the EURO is just horrible.

ABOUT AS BAD AS IT CAN ACTUALLY GET AT THIS POINT.

Massive Dipole anomaly.  Lots of solar insolation and flushing will take place.

It's obviously early and insolation is just reaching and passing 200W/M2 between 60-70 North. 


But given how consistently clear large regions of the arctic will be day in and day out there will be heavy doses of insolation reaching the ice pack between 60-70 North along the edges over the Pacific side. 

When you add this to the near constant off shore winds the established thicker ice will be pushed away and away while new ice forms but won't be able to explode in thickness at all. 


The Chukchi/Bering will see the ice breakup and start melting at least snow on top forming melt ponds during this period. Even with surface temps in the 20s to near freezing.

Expecially if what the Euro shows comes to reality.




(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwRfUkq1.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwRfUkq1.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=48d9d80728a820f59d63de1caf9385f6)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 23, 2014, 10:01:48 AM
The most recent ECMWF has a really interesting "heat dome" at central Siberia in the end of the forecast period. And as someone just mentioned, the GBH seems to be under way pushing warmer air to the Labrador sea.. And yes, in of my earlier post I said I believed the ice would go "pop" but I should have been more clear there. The ice that will go "pop" is that is located in the Okhotsk sea, St Lawrence and partially around Svalbard. And the same will be true for the Great Lakes ice.. At least for the next week. If the GBH is coming true we'll see huge ice transportation.. Long term forecasts are often uncertain, especially those after 7-8 days but the GFS give also hints about a change in the weather patterns in North America with a HP in connection with the GBH..

The coming days forecast will be very interesting!! :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 10:20:54 AM


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwRfUkq1.gif&hash=7ee6c07cd43a0bda0b55b4ab2785a196)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on March 23, 2014, 11:21:06 AM
About 150k of recent growth has been in Barentzs Sea...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/recent365.anom.region.6.html)

This is pretty flimsy stuff, mostly less than 30cm thick...

http://www.arcice.org/php_files/get_file.php?file_name=20140320_itc_am.png&path=/ITC/ (http://www.arcice.org/php_files/get_file.php?file_name=20140320_itc_am.png&path=/ITC/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Pettit on March 23, 2014, 12:53:59 PM
Jaxa/IJIS  down 122,970 in the last two days. Maybe finally turned the corner?

A snippet of my comment over in another thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,743.msg22643.html#msg22643) regarding IJIS/JAXA extent:

2014 maximum to-date: 14,448,416 km2 on 20 March (NOTE: despite the fact that two of the past four years [2010 & 2012] have seen extent increases after this date large enough to set a new maximum were they to happen this year, the forecast says that's not likely, so I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 23, 2014, 01:47:14 PM
I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.

Can I put my pot next to yours Jim? See http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 23, 2014, 01:51:15 PM
But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.[/i]

No need to put any stew on. Jim Hunt's had a pot simmering on the stove for more than a week.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 23, 2014, 01:54:45 PM
About 150k of recent growth has been in Barentzs Sea...

Not forgetting the Bering Sea, plus Barents for reference:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Pettit on March 23, 2014, 01:56:14 PM
I'll be not-all-that-brave, and call that this year's maximum. But I'll keep a pot of crow stew simmering on the back burner just in case.

Can I put my pot next to yours Jim? See http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg21702.html#msg21702)

To avoid eating any of the stew at all--I've dined on much of it over the past few years, and developed a strong distaste for it--I was really going to wait until mid-April to make the call. But I figured that might be pushing the very definition of thrust-jawed courage. At any rate, you're far braver than am I.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 23, 2014, 03:23:16 PM
Thankfully there's no crow stew on the menu for anyone just yet!

NSIDC daily extent for March 22nd is down to 14,757,080. The 5 day average is down too, at 14,888,000 after peaking at 14,913,000 on the 21st:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 04:32:10 PM

Bering region yesterday versus one week ago.

Pretty big differences.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLUWsuyR.gif&hash=60b149d09c64ab14a39361a8c2a29e87)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 23, 2014, 08:34:03 PM
I'm not quite sure how to break this to you Jim, so I'll just come straight out with it.

CT area has crept up to a new maximum for the year of 13,487,337 km2
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 23, 2014, 10:30:34 PM

The arctic has been substantially warmer this cold season versus the prior two.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMEFKjzv.gif&hash=e22f6836474c1ac5d497639afedbffd3)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FkweoPiH.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FkweoPiH.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=43c2a442bf20e88fa6478b9602475378)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F7bwK0nB.gif&hash=7a740f49d157db65e05d611937af0072)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jmo on March 24, 2014, 12:33:45 AM
Not sure how to interpret it, but it seems that 2014 is now the only year ever that mean daily temps haven't fallen below the long term mean for the entire year to date (comparing up to this date back to 1958). A regime shift appears to have occured, comparing recent years (last decade) with the historical data, according to DMI analysis.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 24, 2014, 07:55:47 AM

The arctic has been substantially warmer this cold season versus the prior two.


"Substantial" is a bit of understatement.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on March 24, 2014, 09:12:19 AM
That hot-spot in the northern Barents is quite eye-catching. And very persistent - wintertime anomaly is 5C+ for the last decade, and just getting bigger:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FUky1MGX.png&hash=028ef7582ddb155ef446e1fa60e17c6c)

Does anyone know if there's been research/articles on this 'Barents Burn'? Or maybe any well-known explanations?

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 24, 2014, 10:25:24 AM
A new ice mass balance buoy (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm) has appeared in the Beaufort Sea. Whilst I ponder what might have happened to A and B, I proudly present 2014C (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014C.htm). It currently reports "All sensors OK"

Conditions at Deployment (3/20/2014):
Snow Depth: 20 cm
Ice Thickness: 177 cm

Current Buoy Data (03/24/2014):
Pos: 73.43 N, 136.74 W
Air Temp: -16.00 C
Air Pres: 1032.52 mb

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimb.crrel.usace.army.mil%2Firid_data%2F2014C_thick.png&hash=14b841b841ddfca9cddb30a9e40170b0)

The data for this latest buoy includes two mysterious new columns entitled "Water Rad" and "Atmos Rad". Whilst I work out exactly what they mean, here's my latest Ice Mass Balance Google map - IMB2014C (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2014c)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 24, 2014, 03:55:28 PM
By way of a change, here's Terra's view of the Laptev Sea (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-03-24&map=82432,1604672,439040,1781568) today:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on March 24, 2014, 06:20:45 PM
I'm not surprised that the SIE went down by a huge 170 00 km2.. The cyclone that passed by Okhotsk did a good job! By the end of this week another possible intense cyclone will make another hit to Okhotsk sea..

Meanwhile, the next area after Okhotsk to be hit by a powerful cyclone is St Lawrence in about 2 days or so.. GFS 12z run indicates that this area will be hit by a cyclone with a central pressure about 955-960 hPa which almost for certain will blow the ice away... If GFS12z holds there will also be warmer conditions coming early next week...

As I said in one of my earlier posts I believe that the SIE will be below 14 million km2 on monday 31...  8)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on March 24, 2014, 07:49:48 PM
78km/hr winds blowing down the fram straight today

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/24/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.46,68.91,1025 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/24/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.46,68.91,1025)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2014, 10:31:23 AM
As pointed out by Tony (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/piomas-march-2014.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a3fcde2dbf970b#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a3fcde2dbf970b) over on the ASIB, NORSEX area (http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png) has apparently fallen off a cliff. Here's their area graph up to March 23rd:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JayW on March 25, 2014, 10:59:24 AM
As pointed out by Tony (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/piomas-march-2014.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a3fcde2dbf970b#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a3fcde2dbf970b) over on the ASIB, NORSEX area (http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/ssmi_ice_area.png) has apparently fallen off a cliff. Here's their area graph up to March 23rd:

I saw that, but figured this grey stripe was the culprit
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/ (http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2014, 11:09:56 AM
The Scandinavian equivalent for March 23rd (http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201403231200_pal.jpg) appears to have all data present and correct though?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fosisaf.met.no%2Fp%2Fice%2Fnh%2Fconc%2Fimgs%2FOSI_HL_SAF_201403231200_pal.jpg&hash=c7dea43ced94b5dde975b9ed559e7213)

P.S. However Bremen SSMIS/F18 (http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/ssmisdata/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2014/mar//asi-SSMIS-n6250-20140323-v5_visual.png) for the 23rd reveals this:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fiup.physik.uni-bremen.de%3A8084%2Fssmisdata%2Fasi_daygrid_swath%2Fn6250%2F2014%2Fmar%2F%2Fasi-SSMIS-n6250-20140323-v5_visual.png&hash=c6efc3bf48506774f25a8504e9d27a26)

I think OSI-SAF combine assorted satellite data, but perhaps NORSEX is (as the title suggests) based solely on SSMI?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JayW on March 25, 2014, 11:21:36 AM
The Scandinavian equivalent for March 23rd (http://osisaf.met.no/p/ice/nh/conc/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201403231200_pal.jpg) appears to have all data present and correct though?

You would certainly know better than I, I had trouble believing it so I guess I'm trying to rationalize it.  I trust you more than myself.   :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2014, 11:28:30 AM
I trust you more than myself.   :)

Have you seen all the crow stew I've been eating recently? I think I was adding my P.S. at the same time as you were typing your comment!

Maybe Wipneus can cast some light on matters with an AMSR2 area reading in due course?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 25, 2014, 12:11:58 PM
It's most probably a glitch. Doesn't happen often with NORSEX, although the 2008 trend line has always looked dodgy to me.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on March 25, 2014, 12:22:29 PM
Indeed SSMIS has some data missing on the 23rd. NORSEX appears to counts missing data as zero's while others fill in the data (from previous days or so).

Here is my map of Uni Hamburgs SSMIS data:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on March 25, 2014, 01:07:47 PM
Chris in comment #73, I appreciate what Robert Scribbler has posted on his blog, however the ice has been messy since January. It was fracturing across the Beaufort during that period and in the Laptev. I will post on that later, too busy at work for the moment.

Attached is a Beaufort image from January 28 to illustrate. Also attached is a CAB image from January 27 which gives a glimpse of major fracturing across the basin.

Jim, your Laptev image is pretty amazing, the offshore wind from Siberia has been creating these openings along the coast for while, making the ice pack farther out in the CAB fracture.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 25, 2014, 03:47:20 PM
Whilst not showing such a precipitous decline as NORSEX, Cryosphere Today area (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html) definitely seems to have turned the corner. March 23rd came in at 13,323,590:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 25, 2014, 05:09:44 PM
78km/hr winds blowing down the fram straight today

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/24/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.46,68.91,1025 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/24/1500Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-25.46,68.91,1025)

Is it just me or do those overall wind patterns look strange?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 26, 2014, 10:05:34 AM
That hot-spot in the northern Barents is quite eye-catching. And very persistent - wintertime anomaly is 5C+ for the last decade, and just getting bigger:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FUky1MGX.png&hash=028ef7582ddb155ef446e1fa60e17c6c)

Does anyone know if there's been research/articles on this 'Barents Burn'? Or maybe any well-known explanations?
I am not sure how "well" known is this, - but it's known to me that
 - in the Arctic, there are massive methane clathrate deposits, methane gas "pockets" and lots of organic matter which release large amounts of methane when decomposed;
 - this particular place we talk about had to experience massive warming last decade as a result of greatly reduced (recent years - absent) ice cover during maximum insolation months (June, July);
 - this particular place possibly got even more warming if relatively nearby land mass sheds increasingly warm meltwater (average temperature) in increasing volume as years go by (which seems likely to me, considering overall Arctic amplification);
 - high local concentrations of athmospheric methane are likely to cause additional local temperature increase year-around - even without sunlight, methane, being relatively non-transparent at certain infra-red wavelengths, - slows down heat emission from the surface to space, returning some fraction of radiated heat back to the surface.

So, the only explanation i can think of - is that there are massive methane emissions in the region, which lead to this persistent anomaly locally, and contribute to higher-than-global-average methane content in the Arctic athmosphere, as well as to increase of global methane athmospheric content (proportionally, with time) just as well.

I would be very interested to see actual athmospheric methane measurements at this location. I haven't seen any, so far. I am not sure if such measurements were even done any systematically there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 26, 2014, 10:16:50 AM
I think the Barents anomaly is just a symptom of general AGW, the warmed North Atlantic drift keeping the ocean open on areas they've previously not been open. If one wants to connect the methane outbursts to something, i think it easiest to look for freezing period anomalies. In spring it's harder to say if a high anomaly is becouse of a common warm spell or methane, since in spring also the CO2 is high.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 26, 2014, 10:27:51 AM
Apparently, there was no freezing in this area last winter. None to talk about, at least. Cryosphere today maps show no ice last november, last december, this january, this feabruary, and this march. If there is no freezing, can't talk about "freezing anomalies", you know.

The fact that this region does not freeze at all, despite some ice still forming on the northern side of western half of Novaya Zemlya - is imho significant. Makes one doubt this persistent anomaly has anything to do with remains of Gulfstream, you know.

edit: especially so since i see, on same maps, that north shore of eastern half of Novaya Zemlya had some 80%...100% ice cover in January 1983, and in January 1996 (just some random years to check) - while in the same time, to the north of WESTERN half of Novaya zemlya - ice cover during said years/months was much more similar to what we have seen this winter, - i.e. far lower than 80%. So it seems to me that general warming in the Arctic resulted in a significant decrease of winter ice cover to the north of western half of Novaya Zemlya, yes, - but to the north of eastern half of it, nearly complete ice cover just some 15...20 years ago went to be open water year-around nowadays.

Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on March 26, 2014, 11:13:37 AM
Thanks for the possible explanations on the Barents anomaly. It likely is one of the biggest AGW signals that I'm aware of.

I've also been thinking maybe:
North Atlantic current
Changes in polar front / jet stream position
Methane
Changes in Under-ice circulation
...

The thing is, I hope somewhere someone is measuring, and has records of, the NA current speed and temperature profile with depth. Same goes for historic data on Jet Stream, methane, etc (I doubt whether there is much public data on under-ice currents, temps, etc). Because once we have solid data, we can start trying to explain why it happens.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 26, 2014, 11:41:12 AM
Apparently, there was no freezing in this area last winter. None to talk about, at least. Cryosphere today maps show no ice last november, last december, this january, this feabruary, and this march. If there is no freezing, can't talk about "freezing anomalies", you know.

The fact that this region does not freeze at all, despite some ice still forming on the northern side of western half of Novaya Zemlya - is imho significant. Makes one doubt this persistent anomaly has anything to do with remains of Gulfstream, you know.

edit: especially so since i see, on same maps, that north shore of eastern half of Novaya Zemlya had some 80%...100% ice cover in January 1983, and in January 1996 (just some random years to check) - while in the same time, to the north of WESTERN half of Novaya zemlya - ice cover during said years/months was much more similar to what we have seen this winter, - i.e. far lower than 80%. So it seems to me that general warming in the Arctic resulted in a significant decrease of winter ice cover to the north of western half of Novaya Zemlya, yes, - but to the north of eastern half of it, nearly complete ice cover just some 15...20 years ago went to be open water year-around nowadays.

Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?

I'm afraid the explanation may be much more benign.

Persistent mild southerly winds, courtesy of strong upper level ridge over the area.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXpuAQiJ.png&hash=d028506a749ee89f0e13e5d1acb5c304)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBagHBCZ.png&hash=d988bea35e24ff7e538e5425c99115cc)

The question then becomes, why are there consistent southerly winds and upper level ridges over this area in recent years? It it the cause, or the result of sea ice loss? What else might be involved?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on March 26, 2014, 02:22:12 PM
Thanks BornFromTheVoid, that is the sort of clue I'm looking for.

I see the year-round anomaly is even greater than the winter-time anomaly, so the wintertime one is probably just the delayed freezing in the area.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfTfD5fE.png&hash=b88803788a22204cd4af719bd0351b73)

This is also the spot in the world with by far the greatest temperature anomaly:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FOdDkqQj.png&hash=8d42194d1cdc635295be993013974319)

Probably created by southerly winds and higher pressure due to (by far) the greatest surface pressure anomaly of the last decade:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FiHj0NuO.png&hash=27f086812cb17a3ae8ef28ba56602ffe)

So maybe the next question would be - what is causing this huge pressure rise over Western Siberia? It is huge in terms of pressure anomaly and area.

But again, I'm sure we're not the first guys to notice it - I'm sure many climate scientists have worked on this before? But I don't find any references...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on March 26, 2014, 02:24:44 PM
(Sorry, I realise this Barents anomaly is off-topic... any suggestions where to move it?) My 'Melting Season' guess would of course be more melting in Barents and surrounds :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 26, 2014, 02:47:42 PM
Fits in fine here, Gerrit. But I'm sure there are other threads out there on atmospheric changes due to or followed by changes in the Arctic. Wrt Barentsz the work of Judah Cohen and what's the other guy's name (Petoukhov?) comes to mind.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 26, 2014, 02:48:48 PM
It is somewhat relevant. The pattern of the upper ridge over Barents is currently reversing, with cold northerly winds flooding the area recently and likely continuing periodically for the 10 days or so.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FEURh8u9.png&hash=102b5697ed9ca9cf5adcf2690b218232)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FxFKwAP7.gif&hash=190b0d3db6c3cac7d3e210c37b9a470e)

A late season increase in Barents ice is possible, but with the loss of thicker ice it's blown into the milder seas too.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 26, 2014, 03:34:13 PM
March 20-25, strongly decreased ice extent. Animations on my blog show: Bering Sea and Okhotsk.
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szybkie-topnienie-po-dugim-zamarzaniu.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szybkie-topnienie-po-dugim-zamarzaniu.html)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-cSkYpQvJ-bU%2FUzKt7br0PiI%2FAAAAAAAADiA%2FXtZ76_8MMdE%2Fs1600%2FASI-201402JAXA.png&hash=4481204710a6bd5864e7960ec336c921)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 26, 2014, 07:34:46 PM
Is that "Arctic Weather Forecasts" feature on CT something new, or am I just incredibly unobservant?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fvm4YObY.jpg&hash=ad1dd9006bdb77da916ac54d2a278ad3)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 26, 2014, 08:40:04 PM
I haven't seen it before either. Looks nice. There's been a lot of visually appealing weather (forecast) stuff coming out in the last year, like that Climate Reanalyzer by the U of Maine, and that animated Earthschool wind map.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 27, 2014, 12:17:47 AM
"CT" launches data ice surface, for example, on March 26. But the data describe March 24, = 13 261 576 km2. This is a two-day delay. Am I right?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/timeseries.anom)
My English is a little weak, so I apologize in advance. :-[
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on March 27, 2014, 12:42:49 AM
<Warning: Amateur post>

I've been watching average arctic winter teperatures, and like many others could't help but notice that this winter has been warmer than average. Looking back over the past 5 years I couln't help but notice that '07 '11 and '12 all had abnormally warm winters preceeding them too, with years of 'recovery' having much colder winters.

I have to understand a modicum of statistics for uni, but am nowhere near good enough to attempt any model of regression. Does anyone know who has performed analysis of this already?
Perferably with a comparison of early and late winter warmth.
With my mediocre anaylsis (I look at each graph and guess) it seems that a warm feb-march could portray a decrease in summer extent/volume.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2012.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2012.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2011.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2011.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2010.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2009.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2009.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2008.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2008.png)
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2007.png (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2007.png)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: prometheus on March 27, 2014, 05:38:08 AM
<Warning: Amateur post>

I've been watching average arctic winter teperatures, and like many others could't help but notice that this winter has been warmer than average. Looking back over the past 5 years I couln't help but notice that '07 '11 and '12 all had abnormally warm winters preceeding them too, with years of 'recovery' having much colder winters.

You're not the only one to notice that. The only other year I could find that stayed well above average throughout the winter and is qualitatively similar to this year is 2012. It's also interesting the similarities between that year's late jump in extent and this one's. I strongly suspect this may be another spectacular year for ice melt a la 2012 (but I'm not so confident to go out on a limb and make that a prediction for the record :) )

I'm not sure how one would go about trying to correlate the numerical data to later ice melt.You could try and numerically integrate the departure in temperatures from average over certain time periods (say, day 0-60) which will give a single number to compare later melt to. I'm just an amateur, too, but my intuition is that that integration should give a loose proxy for the amount of energy the atmosphere can conduct away over that period for ice formation. Try it for several different time periods just to see if any shows anything.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 27, 2014, 07:25:59 AM

Eurasian snow cover has been decimated the last week. 

We are now way below normal at this point.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fd9ZiOJP.gif&hash=566f684d33ce585e5e908338290f01d9)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIuyhoaR.gif&hash=280e23ec7cf2c99e1e20cd1278d2b4ba)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 27, 2014, 08:03:43 AM
...
Not methane? Then tell me, what else could it be?

I'm afraid the explanation may be much more benign.

Persistent mild southerly winds, courtesy of strong upper level ridge over the area.
...
Persistent so much those winds blow, without any noticeable pause, during all the last winter? Really? I didn't think it'd be possible for any place on Earth to have winds blowing from the same general direction (like, "south" in this case) for some 5+ months in a row.

But what do i know. If you say it's winds, i really, really hope it is winds. It'd be much better than a massive ongoing methane release, that's for sure.


edit: about snowcover. According to the map posted just above, snowcover near Moscow, Russia have disappeared during last week. Living in the area, i confirm the fact itself, however, it is important to note that this snow cover which was present ~week ago - was not all-winter snow cover, nor even month-long snow cover. Here in Moscow, snow cover was ABSENT most of the winter, - appearing after some cold spell, then lying around for several days, then being melt by a warm spell. We spent most of the winter here having no snow cover at all. Sure, there is heat island effect, but i think much of Eurasia was in the same mode of "snow cover for a few days then no snow cover for several weeks, rinse repeat" for most of this winter.

Nobody i ask can remember a winter like this in the area. Nobody.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on March 27, 2014, 08:33:18 AM
Yep, persistent winds, in the higher atmosphere, blowing up the Atlantic, from approximately NYC to approximately the Kara Sea. Hastening the arrival of the Gulf Stream warmth into the Barents area.

Plenty of this over the last 3 months certainly. At lower latitues they also seem to me to have contribute to the UK's wet and Scandinavia's warm winters.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 27, 2014, 09:11:10 AM

Persistent so much those winds blow, without any noticeable pause, during all the last winter? Really? I didn't think it'd be possible for any place on Earth to have winds blowing from the same general direction (like, "south" in this case) for some 5+ months in a row.

But what do i know. If you say it's winds, i really, really hope it is winds. It'd be much better than a massive ongoing methane release, that's for sure.

The anomaly hasn't been consistently +5 or 6C, it's varied between slightly below average to 20C above. Just as the winds and upper level pattern has fluctuated some, but the mean flow is southerly, keeping the area relatively ice free and the anomaly very much positive.

For example, we're set to have plenty of northerly winds in the area over the next week and the temperature is set to move closer to average.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNajkvKi.png&hash=0ab2f3669640150324e31428582ec103)

While the southerlies shift and Greenland seemingly undergoes a massive warmup, initiating a very early melt with temps above 0C in the west.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzXSy4Xr.png&hash=ffa91203f150f62f8d60f9a2f5a9d56e)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 27, 2014, 03:27:54 PM
I see. Being some ~0...+20C surely seems much more like something which could be caused by winds, yes. Thanks!

I now wonder, is it that mainly-southern winds - is a new development in the area, or is it that direction of winds didn't change much any recently, - but air temperature did? I'd guess the former is the case, but not any sure... But if so, then may be we see a gradual appearance of the "new jet stream" system, somehow? I suspect changes in ice cover in the Arctic could lead to a very different shape/form/direction of polar air currents, including year-round ones. May be it's what we see here, then?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on March 27, 2014, 06:25:45 PM
I've been trying to delve into that southerly wind anomaly over northwester Russia and Scandinavia. Before I say much more I should just like to add the <warning! newbie & amateur> disclaimer ;)

What it appears to be, is some big changes in the Siberian High (SH). The SH is the biggest regional HP in the NH, appears in September and disappears in April, and influences weather all around Asia. It has been shown that less Arctic Ice causes the SH to be stronger (the Warm-Arctic-Cold-Continent phenomenon). There is a prominent average pressure rise over Western Siberia as mentioned in my previous post, which gives the impression that the SH is regularly building further west than before. I've also seen mentioning of increased blocking highs over the Urals.

This extended high causes the southerly flow - clockwise flow around HP in NH. And steeper gradient between SH and Icelandic Low.

So it would then follow that there is some positive feedback going on - less ice -> stronger SH -> more melting in Berents and Kara.

Personally i think it is more a case of coupled variables, as the wintertime Siberian Cooling mechanism (radiation to space) is heavily effected by the radiative greenhouse gas (CO2) effect.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on March 27, 2014, 06:49:59 PM
SIA maximum seems to be both later and lower than last year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png)

What does this say about the approaching melt season>
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: TerryM on March 27, 2014, 08:03:40 PM
F.Tnioli


You might want to check the "What is happening under a cloud of methane" thread under "Permafrost" for some earlier discussion of the subject.


In Southern Ontario Canada we've had the harshest winter in some time. The warmth you've felt in Moscow has been absent here & consequently it's been difficult to bring Global Warming to anyone's attention.


Are people in Moscow questioning the advisability of drilling in the Arctic or is your government (like ours) attempting to downplay the downside of extracting and burning ever increasing amounts of fossil fuels.


Terry




Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 27, 2014, 09:50:27 PM
Large size cracks in ice on Chukchi Sea
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-4tB_1qvdMb0%2FUzR8YSGtiyI%2FAAAAAAAADjA%2Faj-Eh74IZOc%2Fs1600%2F2014.03.26%2B-%2BBeauforta-Czukockie.jpg&hash=273ddc3708382a17876434a5c0121557)
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szczeliny-w-lodzie.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/szczeliny-w-lodzie.html)
It is possible that this year, the ice will melt quickly.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: adelady on March 28, 2014, 03:25:45 AM
One thing that looks a bit different between this year and last is the snow cover.   

Check out Scandinavia and the rest of Europe as well as northern China. 

http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm (http://www.climate4you.com/SnowCover.htm)

I suppose the weather and the speed of snow cover loss during the next 3 or 4 weeks will be the real issue for any early melt resulting from warm(ish) river waters nibbling away at the edges of the sea ice itself. 

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 28, 2014, 05:03:51 AM
Snow depth is much worse than last year as well.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 28, 2014, 06:41:54 AM

The Kara/Laptev region is going to take a beating the next 7-10 days to compile the ice already being pushed out towards the central arctic/fram.

This is huge because when that thicker pack ice keeps getting sent out.  We can end up with hundreds of miles from the fast ice where the pack ice broke off or shore of new ice that will be thin and grow no where near as thick as the pack ice that was already there at this point.


On top of that it's only going into early April and that pattern will wreck havoc on the snow pack over central Russia.  If this pattern holds into May we will see the earliest and largest region of open water in the Laptev in our records.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzpwfHSK.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FzpwfHSK.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=9ba6c454395dc1e5bb3147cba1978743)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 28, 2014, 07:02:15 AM
F.Tnioli


You might want to check the "What is happening under a cloud of methane" thread under "Permafrost" for some earlier discussion of the subject.


In Southern Ontario Canada we've had the harshest winter in some time. The warmth you've felt in Moscow has been absent here & consequently it's been difficult to bring Global Warming to anyone's attention.


Are people in Moscow questioning the advisability of drilling in the Arctic or is your government (like ours) attempting to downplay the downside of extracting and burning ever increasing amounts of fossil fuels.


Terry
Thank you, i'll check that thread out.

As for people in Moscow - simple folk (the majority of the populace) here - are unable to connect the dots. I.e., they surely know "something is wrong" about weather, but they are unable to see that drilling in Arctic - is one of things which will make the weather worse. Most have no idea what the difference between weather and climate is, even. Few who are able to see the connection between drilling in Arctic and climate change, - are unable to talk any much about it in russian section of the internet, since there is much pressure from both official "science" on the subject (which, in Russia, is extremely denialist "for public"), and also from a number of commenters who seem to join any discussion of the subject to harass, insult, mislead and "kill by spam" any worthy discussion.

Few pieces about climate change i've seen on russian TV channels, - they are not any frequent, - are all denialist. Many are poorly made from the point of view of any informed scientist - lots of nonsense, - but are obviously "good enough" for most of general populace. I've seen some of my relatives believing those TV programs, an extremely sad picture. Of course, it has to do with the natural desire of people (often subconsious) to reject threatening-their-future facts and ideas. Psychological block, so to say...

I am not surprised about the heavy denial from the state, and active denialist propaganda and russian-internet "trolling" which is being done. Russia, so far, is one of most heavily fossil-fuel-based economies. Any large-scale movement against fossil fuels - is a direct danger to the state. It is not, nor will be allowed in this country, as long as there is federal government here (it doesn't even matter what kind of government - they all will keep pumping oil and gas, making coal coke and melting steel, exporting alluminium, etc).

In the same time, i am quite sure that there is lots of not-made-public scientific work and effort aimed to adapt and endure climate change, which is being done in russian Academy of sciences and corresponding scientific institutions of the country. The government knows that current state of affairs won't last. Relatively recent intensification of far-east development in the country is one of visible signs of large-scale preparations which are being done. It's just that most of the public is kept ignorant about true cause of such preparations, as well as about true scale. Yamantau complex may well be another part of such preparations, but i don't know for sure (there are several signs that it is, but i don't have complete proof).

You may then wonder, why exactly russian government allows to drill in russian sectors of Arctic. I believe, the answer is quite simple: demand defines. This means, if Russia will ban any drilling in Arctic (for "conventional" oil and gas extraction), - then existing demand for fossil fuels will result in more non-conventional extraction elsewhere, which will result in MORE emissions total, rather than less. Oh, and Russia will lose quite massive income, too. I don't think that it is a difficult choice in such a situation, especially under current leadership of this country (which is quite, how to say it... Pragmatic, i guess).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 28, 2014, 02:18:19 PM
Not sure of the direct impact it will have on the cryosphere but Mr. El Nino is about to go ape ****.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBauiHpX.gif%3F1%3F4056&hash=af525fc1584ad9dbba13ccbb729b0599)


This the warmest since 1979 at the least.  Even warmer than the sub surface build up to 1997.  Like it's pulling away from 1997 at this point that is how absurd it is so far.

Remains to be seen if it can become as established but the chances of a Super nino are becoming more and more favorable.


One thing is for sure.  Watts and Co are about to watch the global temp anomaly get decimated.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=3b0f95b0bf312d4af3963b88106d2d64)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 28, 2014, 03:19:07 PM

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmeteomodel.pl%2Fklimat%2Fgfsanom_np.png&hash=f5fb4a65283da2a0d5066057aa20ff95)


Early on it it just straight up blow torch over Central Russia.  How about Fog, 33-34F with DPs at 33F.  That is a snow killer.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1081.gif&hash=60525fd48fac75bbb0715d1b0a8f66ad)


Then while it's not a balls out 2000 mile long Southerly torch.  It's still ugly as hell.

I am feeling 90% confident we are going to crush snow cover anomaly records this Spring.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1681.gif&hash=a469d2ab4d12825d91cdb7e94f518e0e)

To add insult to injury Canada gets totally smoked to over the Western half.  Getting that torch pathway ready to the Beaufort.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1802.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1802.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=ec50c26d91666d25ac5578b43ba26281)

For every area that has lost it's snow cover it's albedo has dropped substantially.  Warming of the ground.  Drying the ground out.  Growing of the dark lush vegetation won't be far behind.

When those patterns bring in the WSW and SW and S winds over millions of KM of bare land versus what is supposed to be snow cover land.  The extra heat being carried further North creates a positive feedback to help melt out all of the snow as fast as possible.  The faster the snow melts.  The faster the ground thaws, dries up, turns lush and green and albedo plummets heat is trapped earlier into the solar max period and all of a sudden the NH upper lats around the ice are generating more heat than ever before in the lower troposphere that has one place to go.





(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.physicalgeography.net%2Ffundamentals%2Fimages%2Finsolation_latitude.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.physicalgeography.net%2Ffundamentals%2Fimages%2Finsolation_latitude.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=637059692347b6d22892e45ffd8505e9)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 28, 2014, 03:19:41 PM




(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.physicalgeography.net%2Ffundamentals%2Fimages%2Finsolation_latitude.gif&hash=a8e1cc23311451c7f6209a2b0451db8a)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ritter on March 28, 2014, 04:15:35 PM
Friv--you're getting me all excited!  ;D

(sure wish the consequences weren't so dire....)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on March 28, 2014, 06:18:32 PM
I thought I'd take a look at some of the patterns that tend to result in anomalous melt periods during the summer. For today, I'm going to look at 3 main periods from early in the melt season. From the graphs below, a few large dips can be seen in 2004 (yellow) just before day 50 (early April) and in 2012 (purple) around day 60 (late April). One that is not on that chart is 1990, which saw a large drop around the same period as 2004.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FPcaWDYj.jpg&hash=504c186ce900eee6324c0f9cb3eeef33)

1990 saw a drop of 737k from the 7th to the 14th of April. This was brought about by a powerful +ve NAO and associated low pressure around Svalbard (April NAO averaged +2 overall) and a strong ridge up across the Bering Strait region. The +ve NAO drove very strong, mild southerly winds into the Kara/Barents region, sending the ice northward, while the ridge over the Bering Strait brought temperature anomalies of +10C to parts, helping reduce ice in the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. That set up was quite extreme, and produced the biggest 7 day extent drop on record for the first half of April and until 2012, was the biggest 7 day extent loss for April or May on record.

SLP Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3DuObpi.gif&hash=b260daea40be800f5ed4532bd58fb121)

850hPa Temperature Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2uMJZoe.gif&hash=9bae307f188f132f6bb741666f372287)

Concentration Change, Apr7 to Apr14
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F5wPa7sl.gif&hash=3809f76e011ab7c1acc16bcff6af1814)


2004 saw a similar drop around the same time, losing 695k between the 5th and 12th of April.
The 2004 set up was much different to 1990, with high pressure extending from the Canadian Arctic, through the Arctic ocean and across the Kara sea. This brought mild southerlies up into both the Bering Strait region once more and into the Barents sea.
At the same time, a ridge of high pressure extending up toward southern Greenland, bring mild air into the Baffin sea. This brought large temperature anomalies and massive losses to all peripheral sea ice areas apart from Hudson Bay.

SLP Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdUOjN5v.gif&hash=844506b61849385e4f7c5c06c6364c6f)

850hPa Temperature Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjlfYBnQ.gif&hash=f3465a58dae772db75639fb07d329415)

Concentration Change from Apr5 to Apr12
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FyGoMVx4.gif&hash=dd43cdf91deff1caf8e7d43361928476)


Finally, 2012. Later in April than the previous two, 2012 saw an extent drop of 840k between April 24th and May 1st.
This loss came about due to a largely similar set up to 2004. There was a strong high pressure anomaly stretching up toward southern Greenland, carrying warm southerlies into the Baffin Sea. High pressure also extended across the Arctic and into the Kara/Laptev region, bring mild southerlies into the Barents sea. The difference lay in a ridge extending up over the Kamchatka Peninsula and into the Bering sea, which brought southerlies and positive temp anomalies south of the Bering Strait, especially in the Sea of Okhotsk
This represents the biggest 7 day melt on record this early in the season and isn't beaten until 2012 went on see the earliest mega melt week (>1m in 7 days) later in June

SLP Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9AiA2lr.gif&hash=101436991a4a797615eeee0c5469d1dc)

850hPa Temp Anomaly
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fwm8Uspe.gif&hash=60f18bd43a68fc882913dfceccba7cfc)

Concentration change from Apr24 to May1
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fflb3g0s.gif&hash=37f60b9119d39505eb6363318a0694e4)


I'll have a look at big events later in the melt season next week.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 28, 2014, 06:32:52 PM
Very, very nice, BFTV!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on March 28, 2014, 08:01:03 PM
Compliments from me too. Good job, and thanks BFTV
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 28, 2014, 09:01:39 PM
Ice mass balance buoy 2014B (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014B.htm) has now appeared on the map, in the Beaufort Sea. The thermistors are working, and it seems to be on fairly thin ice, but it's hard to be sure. Unfortunately there are no readings from the top and bottom sounders showing up.

This one does however reveal the new "Water Rad" and "Atmos Rad" readings too.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on March 28, 2014, 11:17:27 PM
2014C seemed to spuriously claim 5 or 6 cm of ice bottom freezing, which resulted from an initial blip at the time of installation. It's really been 182-183 cm thick the whole time. What's wrong with 2014B? Just processing delays, or maybe the ice is breaking up and confusing the sensor/algorithm?

The other buoys seem to show minimal growth over the entire winter, confirming the result of PIOMAS. I'm anxious to see when March and April come out on PIOMAS, do we stand a chance at breaking the record from 2011 of lowest max volume (or at least coming close to it)?

If so, won't we have a better than 50% chance at setting a record low volume in September, since a volume drop the size of 2010 or 2012 would do the trick?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 28, 2014, 11:24:09 PM
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-142.94,75.42,3000 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-142.94,75.42,3000)
Quite high temperatures are the Beaufort Sea. And yet the wind. The wind and temperature cause the formation of cracks in the ice. The ice in some places can be very thin.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 29, 2014, 01:42:13 AM
It is just me or does it seem abnormally clear over the arctic region recently?


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Flance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov%2Fimagery%2Fsubsets%2F%3Fmosaic%3DArctic.2014087.terra.4km.jpg%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Flance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov%2Fimagery%2Fsubsets%2F%3Fmosaic%3DArctic.2014087.terra.4km.jpg%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=2b6f626b521809395b06e955e6f45544)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 29, 2014, 04:51:51 AM

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South...


I'm seeing what you are seeing Friv.  I am pessimistic about this spring and what follows.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 29, 2014, 06:18:42 AM

Eurasian snow cover is already in peril and again more rounds of deep fetch Southerly winds.  In combination with the exponentially increasing solar insolation are on their way.


This doesn't do it justice because it will be above normal further South...


I'm seeing what you are seeing Friv.  I am pessimistic about this spring and what follows.


Yes.  I wish we had reliable up to date snow cover over Eurasia.  While melting has slowed a bit today.


The top image is today's snow cover anomaly. 

The middle image is current snow cover.

The bottom image is snow cover climo for April 7th.

Obviously we are already well behind already and the pattern is showing a major torch into Central Russia the next few years. 


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2014087.png&hash=df15ad78088e41d4dada73389a9975a8)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_ims%2F2014087.png&hash=972c6645dfd6511371c936bce4ae27c0)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_clim50%2F097.png&hash=9960461b41279ad054c6f6b82e4ac0f6)


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 29, 2014, 07:05:06 AM
Here is the 00z GFS forecast we can see the SW. Southern, and Central areas of Russia get hit pretty hard with the warmth. 

Considering the blue image above is for April 7th.  wow. 

The NA snow cover will also be getting close to normal by that time as well.





(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FoUP5nhQ.gif&hash=e501092d879af9da33e54bbd1da50aab)


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FnzlWVEj.gif&hash=a63781e98468ec3325a176d7b0a02a25)




Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 29, 2014, 02:12:39 PM
Prompted by Friv's query about ice temperature (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,743.msg23131.html#msg23131) elsewhere, this is what a buoy in the Beaufort was telling us last year. In this case IMB 2012H (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2012H.htm):
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on March 30, 2014, 08:47:20 AM
frivolousz21, you wanted up to date snow cover details.

I'm sure you already know about this, but for others:

You can download the TERRA/MODIS snow cover data pretty much live, but it doesn't see through clouds.

Here is one example of Alaska on the 25th of March.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F7P9ec.png&hash=59d322eeabcf89eec14b86fce5216bfb)

The best way to do it though, would be to write a script that downloads the data and adds the last 7 days together, so as to decrease the effect of clouds covering the land.

This is my attempt,  23-29 March 2014.   Black is the absence of data and not the absence of snow.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F7P9YS.jpg&hash=8a04d2aeec774089901f4694a8dd817b)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on March 30, 2014, 10:01:55 AM
That wouldn't look bad on an art exhibition, icefest!

One commenter on the ASIB made similar compilations of Arctic sea ice, back in 2012. The series is called Peeking through the clouds (http://neven1.typepad.com/.services/blog/6a0133f03a1e37970b0133f03a1e3f970b/search?filter.q=Peeking+through+the+clouds).

I'm copying this one to the Arctic Image of the Day thread. Nicely done.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 30, 2014, 11:47:42 AM
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/)

Is this map is at this link? I can not find the bookmark. Snow cover - two bookmarks, but the picture is incomplete snow.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on March 30, 2014, 12:35:32 PM
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/ (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/)

Is this map is at this link? I can not find the bookmark. Snow cover - two bookmarks, but the picture is incomplete snow.

I'm not sure what you mean.

Yes, that is where I got the images from.

Image 1 is a direct screen print

Image 2:
I switched to N Polar view.
I turned on both TERRA and MODIS snow cover.
I used print screen to capture all seven days.
I loaded all of them into PS
I blended all layers (if you use lighten, you get rid of all the black)


PS: Neven, I'm flattered  :-[
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 30, 2014, 12:41:48 PM
This should be a quick link to the right place in Worldview: http://1.usa.gov/1hNGdti (http://1.usa.gov/1hNGdti)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 30, 2014, 03:44:02 PM
Here's some temperature profiles from one of the buoys in the Beaufort this year. IMB 2013G (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2013G.htm) currently reports "No estimated ice bottom growth", having started late last August with "Ice Thickness: 260 cm".

Would anyone care to play "spot the difference" with last year's profiles for 2012H (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg23154.html#msg23154) above?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: SATire on March 30, 2014, 07:30:29 PM
Would anyone care to play "spot the difference" with last year's profiles for 2012H (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,778.msg23154.html#msg23154) above?
March 30 temperature profile is warmer than May 1 last year but the ice has grown 0.5 m in the last 12 month? I am not sure if the latter is significant or just the result of different place/path/things that happend to the buoy... Maybe I spotted just the wrong thing?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 30, 2014, 08:04:51 PM
2012H started out thinner than 2013G, but had reached a maximum thickness of 2.3 m by the beginning of June 2013. 2013G thinned a bit to start with, but is now back up to 2.6 m again. Maybe that's somewhere near equilibrium thickness for the Beaufort Sea these days? Thus far 2013F has attained 1.65 m in 2014, compared to 2.17 m for 2012H at the same date in 2013.

What really struck me was your other point, the temperatures! The melting season in the Beaufort is still a long way away at the moment, but this year's floes do indeed seem to be much warmer at the end of March than last year's batch.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on March 30, 2014, 09:09:01 PM
2012H started out thinner than 2013G, but had reached a maximum thickness of 2.3 m by the beginning of June 2013. 2013G thinned a bit to start with, but is now back up to 2.6 m again. Maybe that's somewhere near equilibrium thickness for the Beaufort Sea these days? Thus far 2013F has attained 1.65 m in 2014, compared to 2.17 m for 2012H at the same date in 2013.

What really struck me was your other point, the temperatures! The melting season in the Beaufort is still a long way away at the moment, but this year's floes do indeed seem to be much warmer at the end of March than last year's batch.

Should be no surprise, considering the SAT anomalies since February 1st:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2014&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2014&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot)

Compare to last year at the same time:


http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.day.pl?var=Air+Temperature&level=Surface&iy%5B1%5D=&im%5B1%5D=&id%5B1%5D=&iy%5B2%5D=&im%5B2%5D=&id%5B2%5D=&iy%5B3%5D=&im%5B3%5D=&id%5B3%5D=&iy%5B4%5D=&im%5B4%5D=&id%5B4%5D=&iy%5B5%5D=&im%5B5%5D=&id%5B5%5D=&iy%5B6%5D=&im%5B6%5D=&id%5B6%5D=&iy%5B7%5D=&im%5B7%5D=&id%5B7%5D=&iy%5B8%5D=&im%5B8%5D=&id%5B8%5D=&iy%5B9%5D=&im%5B9%5D=&id%5B9%5D=&iy%5B10%5D=&im%5B10%5D=&id%5B10%5D=&iy%5B11%5D=&im%5B11%5D=&id%5B11%5D=&iy%5B12%5D=&im%5B12%5D=&id%5B12%5D=&iy%5B13%5D=&im%5B13%5D=&id%5B13%5D=&iy%5B14%5D=&im%5B14%5D=&id%5B14%5D=&iy%5B15%5D=&im%5B15%5D=&id%5B15%5D=&iy%5B16%5D=&im%5B16%5D=&id%5B16%5D=&iy%5B17%5D=&im%5B17%5D=&id%5B17%5D=&iy%5B18%5D=&im%5B18%5D=&id%5B18%5D=&iy%5B19%5D=&im%5B19%5D=&id%5B19%5D=&iy%5B20%5D=&im%5B20%5D=&id%5B20%5D=&monr1=2&dayr1=1&monr2=3&dayr2=28&iyr%5B1%5D=2013&filenamein=&plotlabel=&lag=0&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded&type=2&scale=&label=0&cint=2&lowr=-7&highr=7&istate=0&proj=Custom&xlat1=55&xlat2=90&xlon1=0&xlon2=360&custproj=Northern+Hemisphere+Polar+Stereographic&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot)


Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 30, 2014, 10:01:48 PM
@icefest

I wanted to know - on which website are the maps of snow extent. Is it a site of World Viev NASA?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on March 30, 2014, 10:15:37 PM

Even with the mid level PV forecast to consolidate over the arctic it's still projected to be way above normal.

On top of that temps are warming dramatically now.  It's probably to late to reverse the warmer ice.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmeteomodel.pl%2Fklimat%2Fgfsanom_np.png&hash=f5fb4a65283da2a0d5066057aa20ff95)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 30, 2014, 11:01:20 PM
Let us consider quickly disappearing snow in Siberia.
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/arctic-news-pierwszy-atak.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/03/arctic-news-pierwszy-atak.html)
Ice extent is low and the rapid melting of snow only accelerate the process of melting ice.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmap2.vis.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimagegen%2Findex.php%3FTIME%3D2014088%26amp%3Bextent%3D-1023648%2C-455872%2C3924320%2C4361024%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3Darctic_coastlines_3413%2CMODIS_Terra_Snow_Cover%2CMODIS_Aqua_Snow_Cover%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D966%26amp%3Bheight%3D941&hash=67c76f1d90f0630d880a9d2c4a010bd0)
That's the map I mean. Only that the snow coverage is strangely incomplete.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on March 30, 2014, 11:52:57 PM
Hubert,

earlier post by icefest said

You can download the TERRA/MODIS snow cover data pretty much live, but it doesn't see through clouds.

The best way to do it though, would be to write a script that downloads the data and adds the last 7 days together, so as to decrease the effect of clouds covering the land.

This is my attempt,  23-29 March 2014.   Black is the absence of data and not the absence of snow.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on March 31, 2014, 12:30:42 AM
OK, thanks
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 31, 2014, 09:19:00 AM
Not sure of the direct impact it will have on the cryosphere but Mr. El Nino is about to go ape ****.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FBauiHpX.gif%3F1%3F4056&hash=af525fc1584ad9dbba13ccbb729b0599)


This the warmest since 1979 at the least.  Even warmer than the sub surface build up to 1997.  Like it's pulling away from 1997 at this point that is how absurd it is so far.

Remains to be seen if it can become as established but the chances of a Super nino are becoming more and more favorable.


One thing is for sure.  Watts and Co are about to watch the global temp anomaly get decimated.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fanalysis_monitoring%2Focean%2Fweeklyenso_clim_81-10%2Fwkteq_xz.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=3b0f95b0bf312d4af3963b88106d2d64)
Why, this boy may well be the killer which will be responsible for practically complete summer melt of Arctic ice by the year 2016, thus making predictions of Wieslaw Maslowski and Peter Wadhams to be 100% correct.

Previous time we had a strong El-nino - which was in 2010, - it did lots of erratic weather, including unprecedented (to this day!) drought in Russia (reducing national crop harvest massively; we lost nearly 40% of wheat harvest, the main crop of the country, and had to ban its export completely - which certainly resulted in higher prices for food in general around the world, and, some say, high food prices - was one of main true causes of so-called "arab spring"). But in terms of Arctic, the important thing is that 2 years after that El-nino, massive and sudden drop in Arctic ice cover happened (2012).

Somewhat similar thing happened after yet previous El-nino - in 2003, there also was massive, completely unprecedented, long-lasted drought (but this time, it was not in Russia, but in western and central Europe); and once again, few years later - not 2 years, but 4 years later in this case, - we had a massive drop in Arctic summer ice cover (2007).

Arctic melt accelerating during last decade in general, it may even be that Arctic "reaction" to presently developing El-nino will happen not in two years from now, but even faster - in 2015. Also, since the general trend is, so far, exponential melt, - 2014 may well be on par or even below 2012 in terms of minimal ice cover (in september), yet in terms of general trend it would still be a "cold" or "average" year (any year which does not break the record for minimum annual Arctic ice cover - is a "cold" year, nowadays; IMHO). An extremely warm year in Arctic - next "analogue" of 2007 and 2012, - will probably result in minimum ice cover below 1 million, and this developing El-nino seems to be a herald of this to happen (possibly in 2016)...



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on March 31, 2014, 10:10:30 AM
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2014, 10:30:42 AM
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.

Concur, Doom.  My main concern is, we will lose the heat sink which has been sucking up heat since the last major 'nino. This means potentially more heat to set lose in a seriously weakened actic.

Regarding warmer ice... I'm not concerned so much about sensible heat... The extra heat in net probably translates into less than the energy required for 2CM of melt.  However, the heat does translate into reduce freezing at the bottom of the pack, in thicknesses measured in as much as a meter across broad stretches of the pack. *That* could mean 30-40% less insolation required to melt it out. If between now and Sept. 15th we average a loss of about 1.5 CM/day, we will be in desperate shape at the end of the season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Phil. on March 31, 2014, 01:38:47 PM
F.T,

Try to not read too much into the correlation of these two events. What in effect you are saying is that we have a frequently occuring event (El Nino) and have had some years that have had large melt seasons in the Arctic.

Yes this coming El Nino will have massive direct impacts around the globe but probably not on the Arctic. It will be the knock on effects that will filter through in the coming years but mixed in with general weather patterns it would be hard to directly identify the cause and effect chain.

There's no doubt that some of the extra heat released during the El Nino will go towards melting more ice, but then so will many others things in the next few years.

Wayne who posts here occasionally and works up in the archipelago is of the opinion that El Nino will have an effect in the Arctic.  See http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/02/circulation-game-changer-el-nino-looms.html (http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2014/02/circulation-game-changer-el-nino-looms.html) for example.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 31, 2014, 03:25:40 PM
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's 2010E (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/Archive/2010E/2010E.htm):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimb.crrel.usace.army.mil%2FArchive%2F2010E%2F2010E_thick.png&hash=4709bf4e74b78e91870e6bcdb113fba7)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on March 31, 2014, 03:27:13 PM
Phil,

With such a global event it would be a miracle if it couldn't be detected in some way. My comment was based on the observation that previous El Nino's don't appear to have much of a direct influence.

One caveat though, the ice is thinner, warmer and in a worse state than ever so heaven knows what it'll do this year.

One thing is for sure, the El Nino will certainly add to what is building into a fascinating melt season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on March 31, 2014, 04:15:28 PM
Sure, i don't put "much" weight into my speculation above. Please note usage of words "may be", "probably", "seems to be" in my previous post.

Yet, there is more "behind" my speculation above. I'd explain. Please, dear reader, feel free to skip it if my bubbling doesn't interest you or you have no time for it.


See, we know that El-nino - is a massive change of heat distribution dynamics on Earth. And we know it takes significant time - months to years, - for enourmous masses of "unusually cold" or "unusually warm" water to travel around the globe (or to dissipate into "normal" - not unusually cold or warm - mass). In case of north pacific, there is that North pacific gyre (good pic of it - is  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:North_Pacific_Subtropical_Convergence_Zone.jpg (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:North_Pacific_Subtropical_Convergence_Zone.jpg) ).

When i look at this picture, i see that distances involved are measured in tenths of thousands kilometers. Speeds involved are few kilometers per hour (for example, Kuroshio is said to be some 2.7 ... 3.6 kmh, and it's said that this is "fast" for a current of such a sort). Let's say average speed, then, would be 1.5 kph or so. Simple calculation for how much time unusually warm water (a result of an el-nino) would need to travel a significant portion of the gyre - would be something like this:

20000 / 1.5 / 24 / 365 = 1.52 years.

(20000 kilometers is "a significant portion of the gyre", 1.5 - is average gyre speed (purely guesswork by me).

Of course, there are different El-ninos, too. Some are "true" ones - happening mainly in eastern pacific; this means warmer water has to go nearly full circle around to reach those "Alaska" and "Bering" arrows on the picture. Relatively long time. But then there are "Modoki", too - an El-nino which is close to the central pacific, - this type could suuply warm water to high latitudes in less time, correspondedly.

Once some _part_ of "still unusually warm" water (on average, at least - and, to some degree, of course) "arrives" to places near Alaska and Bering, - it won't result in less ice cover right away, too. It takes time for ice to melt, for waters to mix (there are all sorts of "smaller side-circles" around any strong ocean current), and considering the scale, - it can't happen over-night nor even in one week, can it? The dissipation of all that extra heat will take months, possibly many months. Seasons don't wait for such processes, of course, - seasons come and go; but whatever time of the year it is, the extra heat from "last el-nino" - should still be felt. It'd slow glaciation in winter, and accelerate summer melt during summer.

Furthermore, as the Gyre transports "warmer than usual" waters closer to polar regions, - corresponding athmospheric events will also happen. More evaporation than usual, possibly stronger cyclones (on average for the duration of the effect), thus both more precipitation and also higher humidity and/or higher air temperatures, - and some part of such athmospheric events will certainly enter Arctic, i think. Stil, those events also take time to happen (may be less than "many months", but still some weeks at least, right?).

Granted, there are other factors in play, some are likely to be more potent, too. What i say is that El-nino will likely contribute in terms of summer ice melt (mainly directly or possibly via reducing winter ice growth - doesn't really matter) in some ~2 or so years from the peak of El-nino.

And since so far the strength of forming El-nino seems to be unprecedentally high - the "delayed effect" to Arctic (which is, again, is only my speculation) - might also be unprecedentally high. Especially since the balance seems to be going towards more melting even without El-nino.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on March 31, 2014, 05:17:14 PM
FT,

That sounds like a  reasonable premise to me. My gut feeling is that the main influence will be on next freeze season which should start to kick in at the height of the El-Nino. This could leave the ice in an even worse state than the last 'warm-freeze' that we've just seen, setting 2015 up for a truely far reaching melt.

As I've come to learn with watching the Arctic, there's always something that springs up to confuse or amaze and you should always apply the caveat of "the weather".

The chips are certainly stacked against the ice, and they just keep building. I feel sorry for it really, it's like some poor kid being picked on in the playground. Everything that comes to the party seems intent on giving it a kicking.  :o
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on March 31, 2014, 05:36:00 PM
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. ....

Without putting too fine a point on it, if we are talking about thicker ice in the Beaufort, most that originated elsewhere; in particular just north of the CAA.  I would assert Recent conditions in the Beaufort are not responsible for how thick it became, only how thick it is currently.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 01, 2014, 11:21:40 AM
... My gut feeling is that the main influence will be on next freeze season which should start to kick in at the height of the El-Nino. This could leave the ice in an even worse state than the last 'warm-freeze' that we've just seen, setting 2015 up for a truely far reaching melt. ...
No, i don't think so - not in terms of this effect i am speculating about, at least. If the peak of this el-nino will be during next freeze season, then it means large mass of near-surface much-warmer-than-usual water will be present where El-nino is - i.e. quite near equator. It's quite far from Arctic, you see. Then el-nino itself will probably disappear (so far, it never lasts for many years straight, right?) - eastern and/or central pacific SSTs will return to "modern-day average". The north pacific gyre will "move away" waters with higher-than-usual SSTs, - 1st to the west, then to the north. It'll take some 8...20 months for those waters to arrive to high latitudes (near Alaska; again, i am not sure about speeds of all those currents, nor did i calculate distances precisely; though i know that part of the gyre which goes north - most of it at least, - is quite fast, being ~3 kph). If it's ~8 months or even less for the "trip", - then 2nd half of melt season in Arctic in 2015 can be affected. If it's longer - then freeze season 2015/2016 and/or melt season of 2016 may be most affected by this El-nino.

Once this warmer water (part of it - anyways) arrives to the north, - melt (or slow ice growth in winter) events would probably happen much faster than in the past, since Arctic itself is much more prone to melt nowadays.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 01, 2014, 06:07:04 PM
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png)


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 01, 2014, 06:07:15 PM
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's 2010E (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/Archive/2010E/2010E.htm):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimb.crrel.usace.army.mil%2FArchive%2F2010E%2F2010E_thick.png&hash=4709bf4e74b78e91870e6bcdb113fba7)

For the period from 2/1 to 3/28, it looks like we had ~40 cm of growth on 2012H due to 2013's cold snap. In 2011, there were only about ~25 cm of growth on 2010E, due to the warmth, with about a +4C anomaly over that period at the buoy's location in the Beaufort, a bit displaced from the largest temp anomalies in the Chukchi. This year, 2013F is near the epicenter of the positive temp anomalies and thus was over 5C above average. Ice grew only about 20 cm over the same period.


So I see no reason these growth differences can't be explained by surface air temperature alone.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Pettit on April 01, 2014, 06:27:34 PM
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png)


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.

I completely agree we may see a record minimum this year, or at least close to it. But your first sentence has me puzzled, for CT SIA for yesterday was 13.109 million km2, which is 393,000 km22 less than the same day last year (and 597,000 2 less than the same day in 2012). Or am I misinterpreting your comment?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 01, 2014, 06:30:47 PM
Dramatically warmer air ----> dramatically warmer ice.

These SAT anomalies are for January through March. The previous "warm winter" in the Beaufort was 2010/11, with 2011/12 not standing out. I guess there's a lot of weather to contend with between here and September?

It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like, but the ice seems to have got considerably thicker by the end of March 2011. Here's < snippage for brevity >

For the period from 2/1 to 3/28, it looks like we had ~40 cm of growth on 2012H due to 2013's cold snap. In 2011, there were only about ~25 cm of growth on 2010E, due to the warmth, with about a +4C anomaly over that period at the buoy's location in the Beaufort, a bit displaced from the largest temp anomalies in the Chukchi. This year, 2013F is near the epicenter of the positive temp anomalies and thus was over 5C above average. Ice grew only about 20 cm over the same period.


So I see no reason these growth differences can't be explained by surface air temperature alone.

Concur, Nightvid.  Ice growth requires heat flow -  out of the water, through the existing ice and out of the atmosphere.  The higher atmospheric temps this season have presented a huge barrier to that.  Warmer ice in *particular*, as that is far less volatile than air temps, and more consistently reflects the persistent anomalies over time.  Lower gradient of temp in the ice will directly result in less thickening.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 01, 2014, 06:46:00 PM
This is an interesting page with animations of atmospheric currents into the arctic.  Under observation it looks like the polar vortex is under attack by mid-latitude heat and water vapor coming in as a result of blocking systems from all sides.

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php (http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php)

This process is surely causative for the increased winter temperatures but may be a negative for the summer temps, as it was last year.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 01, 2014, 06:57:52 PM
This is an interesting page with animations of atmospheric currents into the arctic.  Under observation it looks like the polar vortex is under attack by mid-latitude heat and water vapor coming in as a result of blocking systems from all sides.

This process is surely causative for the increased winter temperatures but may be a negative for the summer temps, as it was last year.

Nice image.  It all ties back to the heat content of the ocean, and how the balance of transfer from all heat sources compares with that required to produce a phase change in in the pack.  The only hope we have for avoiding a new record is persistent cloudiness and little rain.  If enough heat is pumped in, we may have the first, but lose in the exchange to the other... Carrying heat to the ice from lower latitudes via precipitation.  An early departure of snow cover will not help us in this regard, I think.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on April 01, 2014, 07:29:39 PM
While SIA on Cryosphere Today is essentially identical at this point to last year.....


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png)


.......with the late peak this year in SIA, if we have average weather for the next 8 weeks, we will be heading to a new minimum this melt season.

I completely agree we may see a record minimum this year, or at least close to it. But your first sentence has me puzzled, for CT SIA for yesterday was 13.109 million km2, which is 393,000 km22 less than the same day last year (and 597,000 2 less than the same day in 2012). Or am I misinterpreting your comment?

You're right. I am embarrassed to admit I was simply looking at the graph. It appears that SIA last year took a rapid dip in the beginning of April.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 02, 2014, 01:10:10 PM
Mr. El Nino is emerging.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww1.ncdc.noaa.gov%2Fpub%2Fdata%2Foisst%2Fnavy-anom-bb.gif&hash=d1f5ec602d07b4e94b65e953c36a54e5)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 02, 2014, 04:23:43 PM
I wouldn't call it "mister", though, considering this: https://translate.google.com/#es/en/el%20ni%C3%B1o . In fact, it bears mighty meaning - the temperatures we see now - is indeed sort of a child... Our, - mankind's, - child.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 02, 2014, 07:58:03 PM
Jim,

Can you attribute some of the temperature differences (similarity) between 2012H temp profile (2013 May 1) and (2014 March 30th) to buoy location?


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 02, 2014, 09:53:32 PM
Bering Sea - becoming less ice ...
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/morze-beringa-moze-stracic-lod-jeszcze.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/morze-beringa-moze-stracic-lod-jeszcze.html)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F1.bp.blogspot.com%2F-j0ZsR8n7MZU%2FUzweKYXHCII%2FAAAAAAAADmM%2FjVaIG1BX5a0%2Fs1600%2FBering-icesea2014.gif&hash=318daf1da6437bf5dba2bf51dd7568ec)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 03, 2014, 09:21:26 AM
Bering Sea - becoming less ice ...
... And quickly...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 03, 2014, 09:51:21 AM
March to the Fram. At an average speed of about 10km/day the ice North of Greenland is slowly moving to the exit.

Source: Nasa WoldView, alternate images from Aqua and Terra. Dates March 30 - April 2.

Edit: not sure why it does not animate after uploading. Testing some changes.
Fixed by cropping the images slightly.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 03, 2014, 12:41:39 PM
March to the Fram.

As a potential additional aid to measuring the "March to the Fram", IMB 2014D (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014D.htm) has just started reporting from the field. The other numbers don't seem to make a lot of sense yet, but the buoy is located a little way north of Kap Morris Jesup:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 03, 2014, 01:08:47 PM
Can you attribute some of the temperature differences (similarity) between 2012H temp profile (2013 May 1) and (2014 March 30th) to buoy location?

The buoys provide just an extremely small sample from an extremely large Arctic! As I said previously "It's hard to be sure that you're really comparing like with like", or so it seems to me. The buoys start at different locations and follow different paths around the Beaufort Sea, but for what it's worth here are their locations on April 1st:

2010E (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2010e) - 76.7398 N, 145.0975 W
2012H (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2012h) - 76.0963 N, 140.2641 W
2013F (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2013f) -  74.8098 N, 152.7265 W
2013G (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2013g) -  75.3765 N, 159.7189 W

Click the links then click the pushpins for more detail.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 03, 2014, 01:32:48 PM
Reduced snow cover, and its early disappearance this year - has massive consequences other than albedo reduction. Today, i found a news article (originally in russian - http://www.m24.ru/articles/41590 (http://www.m24.ru/articles/41590) ), most of which i'll translate into english and put here, because i believe similar situation is now developing in other than Russia countries, and in other than Moscow regions - and not all of such countries and/or regions may be as well prepared for it, as Moscow region presumably is.

The news are:

"header: Moscow won't have water shortages, despite the lack of snowmelt water pulse this year
...
Press department of Moscow water channel says that specialists have managed to circumvent the absense of snow melt water pulses.

Usually, annual snow melt water pulse is filling Moscow's water-keeping locations, which provide water for Moscow. This year, there is practically no snow melt water pulse - mainly due to unstable weather and frequent change of warm and cold spells. This have led to changed conditions of snow melt - for example, maximum in-flow to "Moskvoretzky" water-keeping areas was below 100 cubic meters per second. For comparison, same measurement taken in 2013 - is 730 cubic meters per second.

However, Moscow water channel's specialists have managed to circumvent this, and fill water-keeping areas to 85% of planned amount.

Total volume of "Mokvoretzky-Vakuzsky" system is 975 millions of cubic meters of water, and this amount is sufficient to provide water for Moscow for a year.
"


Additional comment from me: not only it is obvious that availability of water is much affected in many regions as a result of reduced snowcover and chaotic snow melt, - it is similarly obvious that less or absent snow-melt water pulses will result in lower moisture content in the upper soil during the spring, and consequently less humidity, and higher vulnerability to drought in affected regions. Furthermore, vast subpolar areas which nowadays suffer this change of snowcover - will inevitably influence athmospheric events above and near such locations, and part of such athmospheric events will have direct influence on Arctic itself.

I definitely don't have enough knowledge to even guess what kind of influence (faster melt - or slower melt of surface sea ice?) this will be. Yet, i havea feeling that this must be a BIG issue.

P.S. As usual, the press doesn't care about it, though. Whether Moscow will have its water - oh yes, this is serious, this is worth a news article for sure. But whether Arctic will have its ice melt, or whether some place will suffer massive drought some time in the future - naaah, they don't bother, they probably don't even see any connection, eh... :(
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 03, 2014, 06:45:42 PM
P.S. As usual, the press doesn't care about it, though. Whether Moscow will have its water - oh yes, this is serious, this is worth a news article for sure. But whether Arctic will have its ice melt, or whether some place will suffer massive drought some time in the future - naaah, they don't bother, they probably don't even see any connection, eh... :(

It seems typical that power and wealth, when concentrated in too few hands, regardless of nation, will manipulate perception and information such that outcomes suits both their desire and vanity. 

Eventually, this breeds both blindness and hubris; they come to believe in their own myth, and that somehow, they are immune to the consequences of their choices.  They are sadly mistaken.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 03, 2014, 07:00:53 PM
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 04, 2014, 12:23:31 AM
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.

I suspect "channel" is a mistranslation and does not refer to a media outlet.

As to frozen ground, I suspect it is less about the soil itself and more about available catchment for water supply, and timing runoff capture and use.

You see that here in the Pacific NW ( and further south ) in our obsessive observation of mountain snow pack, and how fast it melts. To little snow, or too rapid a melt off can have similar dire consequences for the growing season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 04, 2014, 12:49:46 AM
Would have thought that less time before the ground is unfrozen would be good news for farmers there.

Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.

I suspect "channel" is a mistranslation and does not refer to a media outlet.

Yes, I assumed it was a press release by Moscow water 'company' reported by a media outlet. A thorough journalist might have wanted to add other interesting aspects but maybe one or both are state controlled and such are just reported as is for fear of inadvertently undermining/distracting from the information that the water 'company' wanted to convey.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on April 04, 2014, 08:12:27 AM
Mr El Nino is emerging...

I hope this animation loads correctly...

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.skepticalscience.com%2F%2Fpics%2FPacificThermalAnomaly.gif&hash=916bda1f8929d356e919f3b6966637a0)

Queue the theme from Jaws?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 04, 2014, 08:19:25 AM
... Not sure why you expect "Press department of Moscow water channel" to talk about much else than Moscow water supply. Though there could well be a dearth of other articles as I haven't looked.
"Channel" doesn't mean "news channel" or "TV channel" here; it is just literal translation of the name of the organization which manages Moscow water supply: "Moscow water channel". It is so named because the organization achieves its goals mainly by regulating water flows through artificial channels (water channels - dag through the ground) around Moscow. Then, this organization has a press department, which is to talk with any press company around - make press releases, answer journalists' questions, etc.

And no, i don't expect this company - "Moscow water channel" - to talk about anything else than their duties. I expect journalists who publicate messages from this company to talk about related things, though. Which they didn't.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 04, 2014, 10:12:13 AM
Mr El Nino is emerging...

See also the detailed analysis over on "2014 El Nino? (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,730.0.html)", where the answer seems to be a tentative yes!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 04, 2014, 10:31:37 AM
Mr El Nino is emerging...

I hope this animation loads correctly...


Queue the theme from Jaws?

That's a slightly dated animation. Here's a newer one

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4I1TeYX.gif&hash=1130d5283f5d5f460f90686d700efc02)

Although there's a glitch in the most recent, the latest updates will be here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: lanevn on April 04, 2014, 11:53:26 AM
One more report from Russia - 24000 buried radioactive objects can went to sea in near future because of arctic shore destruction (2-4 meters per year)

http://www.gismeteo.ru/news/proisshestviya/9273-poteplenie-ugrozhaet-radioaktivnym-obektam-v-zone-vechnoy-merzloty/ (http://www.gismeteo.ru/news/proisshestviya/9273-poteplenie-ugrozhaet-radioaktivnym-obektam-v-zone-vechnoy-merzloty/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 04, 2014, 03:47:41 PM
It's slightly cloudy today, but some more cracked ice is visible on Worldview (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-04&map=221739.376372,1554265.125457,631339.376372,1733465.125457) in the Laptev Sea:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 04, 2014, 03:58:34 PM
lanevn,

I wouldn't worry about those, though. The report is about 24000 "solid radioactive objects" (i.e., pieces which are not in any liquid or gaseous form). And i am pretty sure all 24000 objects have density much higher than 1 ton per 1 cubic meter. This means, these things will sink to the bottom, and stay there.

Plus, considering the number, i bet most of those objects are not themselves containing radioactive fuel nor any significant mass of fission matherial. The report says it's about parts of nuclear-powered icebreaker "Lenin", K-27 submarine and "numerous" parts of atomic weapons. Most, if not all, of those pieces - are made of steel and other normally non-radioactive construction metherials (i bet that reactor cores were taken out and kept elsewhere, or recycled). Thus, we talk about secondary (induced) radioactivity, which those matherials now emit as a result of being in close proximity to fission matherials for a long time (in the past).

This is very similar to "machinery graveyears" near Chernobil, where thousands of vehicles and devices are buried.

Important thing is, secondary radioactivity is always times (usually hundreds to thousands times) weaker than primary radioactibity of fission matherials and unstable isotopes (like Cesium-137) of substantial concentration. This, plus the fact all those pieces will sink down to the floor of the ocean, plus the fact that the place is very distant to any significant agriculture and/or populated areas, - makes this issue completely insignificant to humans. As for the rest of Gaia, - i don't think it would do much harm, either. After all, most areas immidiate (in direct vicinity) from Chernobil #4 reactor - are now teeming with wild life.

Why Gismeteo would publish this piece - is an interesting question to which i have 3 possible answers, none of which is argumented enough to share it here, besides, it'd be totally offtopic, too. I just would say that true purpose of the publication - in this case, - is definitely not its face (literal) meaning.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: lanevn on April 04, 2014, 04:25:10 PM
I didn't worry about radiation, ofc only during from Fukushima ocean got x1000 or maybe x1000000 radioactive materials. But shore erosion speed impressive. And it looks that Russia official structures really monitoring situation in arctic, just without public discussion (What could they offer anyway?).

P.S. Gismeteo reprint everything with relative keywords, often without source links. It can be article from climate sceptics and next article from climate alarmists ).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 04, 2014, 07:09:52 PM
ENSO updated again and is even warmer.  This is nuts.

Damn.

OHC is up to 1.7C+ from 1.525C+ last week.  Just crazy.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F53UP01A.gif&hash=ea0e6ca2eba6a96204406af7d473f0f9)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FeXFJDKb.gif%3F1%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FeXFJDKb.gif%3F1%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=9bd063d337d84e3106a78d68aa697d8c)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 05, 2014, 03:13:22 AM

Plus, considering the number, i bet most of those objects are not themselves containing radioactive fuel nor any significant mass of fission matherial. The report says it's about parts of nuclear-powered icebreaker "Lenin", K-27 submarine and "numerous" parts of atomic weapons. Most, if not all, of those pieces - are made of steel and other normally non-radioactive construction metherials (i bet that reactor cores were taken out and kept elsewhere, or recycled).

No. There's actually several reactors and a lot of high level waste out there.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F7WiUT.png&hash=ce6ff82ac358fc072fe33486c978ca6c)

The Lenin
Quote from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lenin_(nuclear_icebreaker)
In February 1965, there was a loss-of-coolant accident. After being shut down for refueling, the coolant was removed from the number two reactor before the spent fuel had been removed. As a result, some of the fuel elements melted and deformed inside the reactor. This was discovered when the spent elements were being unloaded for storage and disposal. 124 fuel assemblies (about 60% of the total) were stuck in the reactor core. It was decided to remove the fuel, control grid, and control rods as a unit for disposal; they were placed in a special cask, solidified, stored for two years, and dumped in Tsivolki Bay (near the Novaya Zemlya archipelago) in 1967.

...and K-27 may eventually re-achieve criticality. It filled with bitumen and sunk. The reactors had partly melted down. http://rt.com/news/k-27-submarine-arctic-oil-040/ (http://rt.com/news/k-27-submarine-arctic-oil-040/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 05, 2014, 05:42:09 AM
Apparently the waste is stored 500 meters below the surface, it should take quite some time for this region to become completely thawed but it still means that this was only a temporary solution to begin with.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 05, 2014, 11:56:56 AM
@frivolousz21
The reason - global warming - heat accumulation 500 meters below the ocean surface. Heat comes to the surface. Let us remember that it is already 400 ppm of CO2. In the end anything happens.
http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/ (http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 05, 2014, 12:53:23 PM
The melting season is here with a thunder! Even if we aren't seen any sharp decrease in ice extent there is a considerable melting around the Arctic periphery now. The reason for why SIE isn't decreasing is due to the dispersed ice in the region of Svalbard which is compensating for the losses in Okhotsk, Berings, Labrador and St Lawrences area... Once the northerlies are replaced with southerlies we'll see a vertical limit to the SIE numbers.. How about that people? Reasonable or ::)?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on April 05, 2014, 01:26:07 PM
lanevn (neven's in LA now? ;D) wrote: "One more report from Russia - 24000 buried radioactive objects can went to sea in near future because of arctic shore destruction"

Might some of those end up on the floor of the ESAS and help destabilized methane hydrates?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 05, 2014, 01:43:49 PM
The reason for why SIE isn't decreasing is due to the dispersed ice in the region of Svalbard which is compensating for the losses in Okhotsk, Berings, Labrador and St Lawrences area...

Seems reasonable to me Lord M. My last forlorn domino seems to have fallen  :-[

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 05, 2014, 04:09:01 PM
Actually is has been the Greenland Sea that has increased this past week most. Ice is massing to the Fram exit and it shows.
St.Lawrence, Bering and Okhotsk regions has lost extent and area. Baffin actually a small increase (by extent).

Details (Jaxa AMSR-2 L3 data) in 1000 km2:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140403-20140327 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   20.2                     0.3                     1.0
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    3.8                    19.4                    66.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   14.1                   -54.8                     5.3
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    1.8                     0.2                    -1.0
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                  -49.4                   -87.5                   -60.4

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140403-20140327 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                  -21.9                    -8.9                   -17.5
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -1.9                    15.5                    55.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   -2.4                   -35.6                   -15.1
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    8.2                     2.2                     3.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                  -73.1                   -62.2                  -154.3


And a difference map for past week:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 05, 2014, 04:27:31 PM
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/zwieksza-sie-zasieg-lodu-na-morzu.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/zwieksza-sie-zasieg-lodu-na-morzu.html)
Labrador Sea ice coverage increases. (animation at the link). Decreases while the concentration of ice. Two satellite images (in the link). It was the same in 2012. This is one of the similarities. Replay of the summer of 2012? In my opinion, the more and more likely.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 05, 2014, 09:35:33 PM
Just posted a blog post relevant to this thread:
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/2014-large-myi-export-into-beaufort.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/2014-large-myi-export-into-beaufort.html)

Concerning the large export of MYI into Beaufort as seen in Drift Age Model (and for that matter ASCAT)...

Quote
This suggests to me that while this melt season will see probably a large volume loss as this older thicker ice is thinned and subjected to lateral melt, a total melt out in Beaufort, Chukchi, and possibly as far as the East Siberian Sea, is looking unlikely. I suspect we may see persistent low concentration ice in those regions by late summer.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 05, 2014, 10:29:35 PM
Concerning the large export of MYI into Beaufort as seen in Drift Age Model (and for that matter ASCAT)...

And for that matter IJIS RGB (http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2FRGB%2F201404%2FAM2SI20140405RGB.jpg&hash=35bab9a9c26110b1bb66117a2c3e508f)

As I mentioned over at Dosbat, the ice between the Pole and Svalbard doesn't look very substantial at present. What are the odds on being able to jetski (http://news.nationalpost.com/2013/09/13/crew-filming-reality-tv-show-forced-to-cancel-trek-through-northwest-passage-on-jet-skis-after-costly-rescue/) to the North Pole come September? Without the aid of an icebreaker!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 05, 2014, 11:04:21 PM
Jim,

If you mean weaving between a mess of small floes with channels of water between them - it seems entirely feasible. Conditions on the Atlantic side are very similar to 2012 (Feb PIOMAS).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2014, 12:14:02 PM
Conditions on the Atlantic side are very similar to 2012 (Feb PIOMAS).

A mess of relatively low concentration small floes is indeed what I has in mind.

Here's the April 5th comparison on ASCAT (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php). 2014 is on top. No doubt somewhat subjectively on my part, the entire "Laptev Bite" area looks darker to me this year:



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 06, 2014, 12:32:06 PM
Have you seen the 'Nares Bite' in 2014. I think that looks much more frightening.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2014, 12:38:46 PM
Have you seen the 'Nares Bite' in 2014. I think that looks much more frightening.

If this (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/lincoln.uk.php) is what you had in mind, then yes:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Focean.dmi.dk%2Farctic%2Fimages%2FMODIS%2FLincoln%2F20140402rs02.ASAR.jpg&hash=bebcfcabb0b7d566aa04d4029ccad988)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2014, 01:52:20 PM
Shock news (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2014-field-reports/) from (near) the North Pole:

Quote
Saturday, April 5 Barneo – Iridium call from Jamie Morison

The NPEO team  now has their own hut, complete with heat, light and power.  Much of the effort today focused on surveying the floe for the best buoy locations.  Most of the camp area is only 1.4m thick.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 06, 2014, 03:25:29 PM
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/arctic-news-zwodniczy-przyrost-lodu-i.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/arctic-news-zwodniczy-przyrost-lodu-i.html)

Posted animations of ice thickness changes. HYCOM is now active. 26.03-05.04 was not. Change is large.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-Qc0GXlJ8psA%2FU0Ep3pa7rvI%2FAAAAAAAADpo%2FUKxXVGtFUVw%2Fs1600%2Farcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif&hash=77fae5ee33680a63f8a42407b579958d)

Go hiking on the ice - it's certain death. That is my opinion.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 06, 2014, 03:33:12 PM
Jim, I'm not surprised! Not at all given how thin the ice was last year. Hadn't it been for the cold summer I believe we would have seen an virtually ice free North Pole already in august 2013... The question is whether this will occur this year or if we have to wait a few more years...

So far there are no signs of a negative AO which seems to be positive for at least one more week...

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2014, 04:02:00 PM
@Hubert - I remain to be convinced that there is in fact 3.5m plus thick ice over most of the Beaufort Sea as indicated by ACNFS. It is only a model after all, and one that doesn't assimilate thickness.

@LordVader - I'm not surprised either. Here's a snapshot from the end of August 2013:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 06, 2014, 04:32:40 PM
@ Jim Hunt
So the thickness of the ice in practice is worse? In the Beaufort Sea ice is a lot of cracks. So areas ice can be very thin. Are there other maps of thickness? other model
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 06, 2014, 05:50:18 PM
So the thickness of the ice in practice is worse? In the Beaufort Sea ice is a lot of cracks. So areas ice can be very thin. Are there other maps of thickness? other model

I conjecture the Beaufort may be "worse" as in thinner on average.

Wipneus' SMOS - http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg23416.html#msg23416 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,587.msg23416.html#msg23416)

CryoSat 2 from the Alfred Wegener Institut (http://www.meereisportal.de/de/datenportal/karten_und_datenarchiv/) or from ESA (http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/CryoSat/Arctic_sea_ice_up_from_record_low):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.esa.int%2Fvar%2Fesa%2Fstorage%2Fimages%2Fesa_multimedia%2Fimages%2F2013%2F12%2Fautumn_sea-ice_thickness_from_cryosat_2010_2013%2F13453965-4-eng-GB%2FAutumn_sea-ice_thickness_from_CryoSat_2010_2013_large.gif&hash=1064d61f742b998b48ae6aa51bdc1d9a)

TOPAZ sea ice thickness - http://view.myocean.eu/ViewService/?record_id=met.no/96424 (http://view.myocean.eu/ViewService/?record_id=met.no/96424)

Chris's PIOMAS thickness (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/piomas-gridded-data-february-2014.html)

Wipneus' PIOMAS thickness (https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas):
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 06, 2014, 06:28:50 PM
68 km/hr wind blowing straight down the Denmark Strait today.

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/06/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=339.64,62.60,881 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/06/1800Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=339.64,62.60,881)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 07, 2014, 01:06:43 PM
Another look at a small corner of the Laptev Sea that still seems to be falling apart instead of refreezing. This one's using Terra bands 7-2-1 (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-07&map=289824,1538112,658464,1709888):

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 07, 2014, 02:37:13 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfzIK96p.jpg&hash=846ac92adc0413f5d6651c7623c78e5b)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 07, 2014, 04:42:24 PM
To use Chris Biscan's favorite term, GFS and the other models show the Arctic being "torched" starting on the 12th/13th and continuing as far as the models can see...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 07, 2014, 07:00:08 PM
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

(modified a bit later) for fun, checked what happens if the arctic keeps repeating this linearish pattern of decreasing maximums. This would mean that in ~550 years the Arctic would be completely freed of sea ice (of natural sea ice that is.). Then I guess what's left in Greenland would not anymore be of any concern. Given that summer sea ice is decreasing a bit faster than that, I wouldn't be surprised if this happened earlier.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 07, 2014, 07:21:38 PM
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on April 07, 2014, 07:46:58 PM
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.

From the abstract to
 Comiso J C 2006 Abrupt decline in the Arctic winter sea ice cover Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 L18504  (http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/157359main_Comiso_GRL06_AbrChArcWntrRevf1.pdf)

"Although the Arctic perennial ice cover has been on a rapid decline, the winter ice cover had
been unexpectedly stable. We report and provide insights into a remarkable turn of events, with
the observation of record low ice extent and area during the winters of 2005 and 2006. Negative
ice anomalies in these years are prevalent in the peripheral seas but are most dominant in the
eastern Arctic basin where the perennial ice becomes even more vulnerable to further decline.
Overall, the winter ice anomalies correlates well with surface temperature anomalies and wind
circulation patterns. Since historical satellite data indicate a positive trend in winter temperatures
and a negative trend in the length of ice growth period it is likely that the winter ice cover will
continue to retreat in the near future. Results suggest that the expected warming impact of
greenhouse gases is becoming apparent in the Arctic during the dark winter months.


Chris, I seem to recall discussing this paper a couple of years ago.   But there have been so many I could have it confused with another.  I was expecting a Kwok paper actually.  I'm sure he must have written on it as well.  Probably in relation to movement through the Fram.

kto
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 07, 2014, 07:53:03 PM
I'm pretty confident that CT SIA has peaked this year so here's a graph of progression of maximums. no conclusions but that the maximum has decreased pretty steadily until 2004 where there's a drop to current levels. The cause is extremely likely global warming and specifically the Arctic amplification that is a part of general global rise of temperatures.

But why 2004????    ;)

Genuine question - I don't know why there was that drop.

I don't know, just guessing that it was when Bering Sea or Barents Sea (alternate years) developed inconsistency, being the first ones to recieve heat from south.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 07, 2014, 09:23:50 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fwordpress%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fschweiger%2Fice_volume%2FBPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png&hash=376754814b8d8a1b7453dc9edf69119c)

Volume trend at max looks fairly linear, slight acceleration seems likely but not as likely as in minimum and there is a bit of noise.

No sign of a volume drop cause to the 2004 area fall.

What is wrong with drawing a straight or slightly accelerating line through the area data? Is saying the rest is just indistinguishable from random noise reasonable? If not, why not?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 07, 2014, 09:42:19 PM
Kevin,

Thanks for that, I don't think we've discussed that one - wasn't the Comiso paper the one with the 6 or 7 (?) year cycle in MYI - Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover - one of us emailed Dr Comiso but he hadn't looked into it further...

I don't think I've seen that paper and it's not in my collection. Thanks for bringing a plausible answer forth so quickly - I posed the question and did no digging because I was being a bit lazy.  ;D

Crandles,

Looking at what the residuals would look like - in both winter and summer they start low, go high in the middle, and end low - which suggests to me linear (ax + b) is not the best function to fit. Surely the sign that the fit is well chosen is stationarity in the residuals?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 07, 2014, 10:11:59 PM
And what role did this play in 2007?

Comiso et al. "Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover" notes:
Quote
The 2007 Arctic ice cover was comparable to the
2005 and 2006 ice covers through mid-June but then began
a more precipitous decline

In "Sunlight, water, and ice: Extreme Arctic sea ice melt during the summer of 2007" Perovitch et al state:
Quote
There was an extraordinarily large amount of ice
bottom melting in the Beaufort Sea region in the summer of
2007. Solar radiation absorbed in the upper ocean provided
more than adequate heat for this melting. An increase in the
open water fraction resulted in a 500% positive anomaly in
solar heat input to the upper ocean, triggering an ice–albedo
feedback and contributing to the accelerating ice retreat.
The melting in the Beaufort Sea has elements of a classic
ice–albedo feedback signature: more open water leads to
more solar heat absorbed, which results in more melting and
more open water.

And in "The role of Pacific water in the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007" Zhang et al state:
Quote
the Pacific water inflow in September 2007 is about 0.5 Sv or 50% above the 2000−2006 average. The strengthened warm Pacific water inflow carries an additional 1.0 × 1020 Joules of heat into the Arctic, enough to melt an additional 0.5 m of ice over the whole Chukchi Sea. In the model the extra summer oceanic heat brought in by the Pacific water mainly stays in the Chukchi and Beaufort region, contributing to the warming of surface waters in that region. The heat is in constant contact with the ice cover in the region in July through September. Thus the Pacific water plays a role in ice melting in the Chukchi and Beaufort region all summer long in 2007, likely contributing to up to 0.5 m per month additional ice melting in some area of that region.

So not only was ice albedo feedback warming the ocean but also the AD was drawing in warmer Pacific waters adding to melt.

Zhang et al in "What drove the dramatic retreat of arctic sea ice during summer 2007?" find that
Quote
It is found that preconditioning, anomalous winds, and ice-albedo feedback are mainly responsible for the retreat.

The anomalous winds being the AD. - as I understand it.

And Bluthgen et al, in "Atmospheric response to the extreme Arctic sea ice conditions in 2007" find that:

Quote
The most pronounced feature of the SLP response is a
low-pressure anomaly over the eastern Arctic (0°E–180°E).
The anomaly resembles part of the anomalous Arctic SLP
dipole pattern, which contributed to the extreme summer sea
ice anomalies of 2007 and 2008 [e.g., Wang et al., 2009]. In
an adjoint sensitivity analysis for the September sea ice
extent in 2007, Kauker et al. [2009] found that SLP in May
and June contributed most strongly to the sea ice extent
anomaly in September. Here, we find that the SIC and SST
anomaly associated with the sea ice retreat themselves force
a similar atmospheric response later in the year (JAS) that
thus is suitable to prolong the SIC anomaly by promoting
sea ice redistribution from the eastern to the western Arctic.


The atmospheric model results and the indication of
positive feedbacks between sea ice anomaly and atmospheric
circulation is intriguing as it might provide an
explanation for the recent eastward migration of the low
pressure center from Iceland into the Siberian Arctic [Zhang
et al., 2008b]

In other words: 2007 was due to an atmospheric pattern (AD) that was reinforced by the retreat of sea ice. That is what has happened in the other post 2007 years (except 2013 - delayed melt that year).

But to what degree did the abrupt decline in winter sea ice cover in 2006/2005, described by Comiso, prime the 'system' for 2007 and the following years to happen?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 07, 2014, 10:41:33 PM
I don't think I worded my previous answer well. Certainly with the low noise of the volume graphs, a downward acceleration is more likely than linear. Chance of 7 at one end being below linear, 7 at other end being below linear and all but 1 or 2 in middle being above linear by chance is extremely remote.

The data for max volume is less clear than with minimum volume. Also with maximum volume I am less sure I would want to bet on future downward acceleration. With just the data, you might think downward acceleration is a better bet but there could easily be other arguments. E.g. decline in MYI volume might begin to run out so that a deceleration in future might be possible. So there is a big difference between extrapolating trends and trends for the period and I should avoid confusing these.


I think viewing volume as well as area helps inform the choice of trend and a downward accelerating trend seems more likely to be appropriate for the area data after viewing the volume data.


The question was mainly about the 2004 drop in area. What I am suggesting is that while the drop from 2003 to 2006 is larger than for any other 3 year period, it is not hugely greater than the area fall from 1993 to 1996. There is bound to be a largest 3 year drop at some point in the data and this one isn't that much bigger than the next largest. Therefore random variations seem quite plausible as an adequate explanation for the 2003-2006 area fall. That doesn't rule out there being a different explanation but it isn't clear that this is a problem that requires an explanation other than random noise. But feel free to correct me.


What happened in 2007 doesn't strike me as a likely explanation for 2003-2006 area fall at maximum. Maybe the reverse though?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 08, 2014, 09:36:38 AM
I gave some thought about future "shapes" of those graphs few years ago, crandles. My guess is, summer (minimum) extent has downward acceleration and will keep having it all the way to (near) zero minimum extent, the reason for this - is consideration of main forces which cause the process.

I mean, let us see, what exactly forces the process of decreasing annual minimum sea ice extents? AFAIK, it is those forces:
 - greenhouse gases increase
 - warmer water and air entering Arctic from the south
 - decreasing (as a result of earlier and larger melts) albedo
 - massive amount of sunlight during summer in Arctic (polar day - sunlight 24/7)

Now, as far as i know, all except the 4th - are increasing in power as years go by. CO2 levels are rising with acceleration, methane release in Arctic itself is also accelerating, SSTs in "south" are rising with acceleration, loss of albedo in Arctic and subpolar regions - is also accelerating. The last force - sunlight, - remains nearly constant.

So, in total, forces which cause decreasing annual minimum sea ice cintent in Arctic - are getting stronger not linearly, but with acceleration. And since we know the end result _can_ be zero summer ice in Arctic - i don't see any large reason why the downward acceleration on the graph for minimum annual ice extent could stop. It should remain.

Accordingly, since there can't be much volume if the extent is zero, - the same (downward acceleration) dynamic will remain to be present on minimum _volume_ graphs for Arctic sea ice.

Which means we'll definitely see ice-free summer (late summer, first) in Arctic in a few years. May be 2015 or 2016.

However, maximum extent is not the same. I believe that present "downward acceleration" on maximum winter extent graph - will remain for some time, but the acceleration will at some point start to decrease, and reach 0. The reason for it - is polar night. See, from purely practical, every-day experience we all know that in subpolar regions (places not so far from 60 degrees north latitude), - lakes during summer can get quite warm, but during dark (very little sunlight) winters, - ice forms despite high summer water temperatures.

Good example is lake Baikal. It's a huge mass of water. During summer, with lots of sunlight, surface water temperatures in Baikal are: in the middle of the lake it's 14...15°C (august), in shallow bays - some 18...22°C. Yet, whole lake freezes every year by January, and remain mostly frozen (surface) till May.

I expect the same to happen in much of the Arctic, threfore, maximum (winter) sea ice extent will stabilize at some significant figure. The "downward acceleration" which we can see for maximum ice extent graphs today - will disappear, and then, deceleration trend will start. Further very small long-term reduction in maximum extent will probably be (due to on-going global warming), of course, but i think maximum extent will remain nearly stable.

Maximum volume, though, will keep its downward acceleration for much longer, i guess. It takes very thin ice to count an area as "a part of ice extent", and with ice being lighter than water, thin "skin" of ice can stay on top of much warmer (than -1.9°C, which is frezing point for sea water) water. I think it all starts with snow: without sunlight, athmosphere gets into negative celsius temperatures, snow forms, snow falls to the Arctic ocean, and even if the water is very warm, - melt snowflakes form a very thin layer of low-salinity water, which freezes easier than sea water. This, very thin, surface layer of low-salinity water emits IR radiation and also loses heat by convection (since the athmosphere is colder), which inevitably leads to ice formation. Even if water below it is much warmer. The warmer the water is, the slower is ice growth. Surfaces waves is a big factor when present, too. But, even with waves, it just needs "enough snow" to form thick enough layer of less-salinity (and thus, less-density) water for freezing to eventually overcome the heat of deeper (and possibly much warmer, but also high-salinity and thus more dense) layers, and thus form some thin surface ice. And then it's a matter of equilibrium between how much heat deeper layers are still (slowly) transporting to the surface - which is a force preventing further freezing or even melting some ice from-below, if intense enough, - and how much energy is lost from the ice surface via convection (to a very cold athmosphere) and IR radiation.

So, winter freezing in terms of _volume_ will continue to be slowed and decreased by those 3 accelerating forces mentioned above, and maximum volume will continue to be decreased in more or less linear manner for at least several decades, i think. GHGs are important even during polar night, since they trap heat which Earth emits; albedo loss is still important even without sunlight due to its "delayed" effects - higher heat content of water columns, (shallow) sea floor and shores; air and water currents keep going during winter, some from the south, too.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Buddy on April 08, 2014, 12:03:50 PM
<<Which means we'll definitely see ice-free summer (late summer, first) in Arctic in a few years. May be 2015 or 2016. >>

Yes.  In TOTAL agreement.  In fact....I have said for two years now.....that most of the ice will be gone by September of 2016 (with the exception of a "swath" of the last MYI that is off the north coast of the Canadian Archipelago over to the northern coast of Greenland).

All the LONG TERM FORCES are still in place.....and getting worse.  It truly is basic math and basic science at this point.

More and more people are beginning to see that......and the number will increase as the ice melts in the Arctic.

And it will become increasingly clear that some people and organizations have been lying about climate change.......like FOX News, Joe Bastardi, Anthony Watts, fossil fuel companies, etc.  Their "clothing" is being stripped from them.....and will continue to be stripped as the obvious truth unfolds in front of us.  The truth NEVER leaves.....it just waits until it is discovered.

This melting season will be a "turning point" if the melt comes close to the prior record low.....or sets another new record low.

The basic science and math are not going to change.  It is CLEAR what will happen over the intermediate and long term.   
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 08, 2014, 12:23:40 PM
I agree with quite a lot but ...

I think area and extent will have the same shape of curve as volume with a power law relationship like this:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-TA4qFR0WL1A%2FUy3G1FUQS6I%2FAAAAAAAAAPU%2FVSrpuRhbE-Q%2Fs1600%2FExtent%2B%26amp%3B%2BVol.png&hash=bef161bfc1061ff7a594dd785208e1de)

That is at least a sensible way to get volume and area and extent down to 0 at the same time.

So volume seems the sensible quantity to talk about.

If maximum volume maintains a linear decent then I expect minimum volume to continue to accelerate downward. This is mainly because of open water formation efficiency, extra open water is formed which decreases albedo. Thinner ice also has lower albedo. I.e. the standard albedo feedback is largely acknowledged to be the most important feedback.

However I am less sure of maximum volume continuing linear decent let alone accelerating downward decent. Most of the volume loss has been reduction of MYI, i.e. old thick ice down to nearer thickness of FYI. This might reach a point where there isn't much more of this left to lose so that has to slow down. In addition to this there is also thinning of first year ice. This seems to be talked about but I don't see much hard data on this. If this thinning is significant, then I expect it to continue.

The main effects on FYI thickness would seem to be
GHG levels - fairly linear
upward ocean heat flux - at least linear
thinning ice causing warmer temperatures which in turn allow thinner ice

So I expect the volume loss at maximum through thinner FYI to remain as at least linear. However I am really not sure how large this is compared to loss of thick MYI, which we know is substantial. If the FYI thinning is small compared to MYI loss, then volume at maximum curve could well show deceleration. If the FYI thinning is tiny then the maximum volume curve might practically level off.

If maximum volume curve begins to level off then minimum curve might not continue its downward acceleration.


You say
"Maximum volume, though, will keep its downward acceleration for much longer, i guess."

Why do you guess that? Do you have some reason to believe FYI thinning is substantial? Why would this adequately compensate when MYI has been reducing rapidly towards FYI thickness and has got to start reducing its effect?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 08, 2014, 01:50:35 PM
Further to a discussion over on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/piomas-april-2014.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da464ec970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da464ec970d), here's the state of play of the ice in the Laptev Sea (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-08&map=-423616,1230848,1050944,1917952) today, together with the weather forecast (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php) according to CCI/GFS:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 08, 2014, 01:58:24 PM
IRT crandles:

We have already lost most of MYI. We were losing it at a rate -15% for extent (Journal of Climate, Fabruary 2012 issue, says it's -17.2% per decade for MYI _area_, - which is ice-only figure, excluding any open water). -17.2% for 3 decades (more like 3.5 decades, since 1979, but it was slower initially, i bet, so let's say 3 decades) - means we lost some 43.8% of MYI _area_ since 1979. However, the _mass_ loss of MYI is much greater, because remaining (so far) 56.2% of MYI - definitely became much thinner than it was in 1979. I'd say we lost more than 75% of MYI volume already, probably much more; it's obvious since the total annual minimum volume of sea ice in Arctic in 2012 was below 20% of 1979's figure.

So yes, i do have a substantial reason to believe winter FYI thinning will remain to be substantial for several decades ahead. I named those reasons in previous message just alright, but i can do it again:

reason #1 - warmer air and water entering Arctic (including during winter). It slows freezing, which results in FYI thinning through the winter,

reason #2 - accelerating rise of GHGs, both global and local. Mankind keeps to pump increasing amounts of CO2 into the athmosphere, - coal consumption is rapidly rising last few years, and it's the most CO2-intensive fossil fuel there is; China builds 2 new coal power stations every day; number of ICE (internal-combustion-engine - how ironic!) cars - still increases in accelerating manner; deforestation, desertification, and decreasing solubility of CO2 in water as temperatures rise - all those decrease CO2 sinks' efficiency, worldwide. Furthermore, personally, i do believe that methane situation in Arctic is being vastly underestimated by mainstream climatology. I do believe we'll see gigaton-scale methane emissions by the end of this decade, or in the 1st half of 2020s latest. Unless there is a super-volcano eruption or all-out nuclear exchange, either of which can put huge mass of sunlight-blocking ash and aerosols into stratosphere, thus causing multi-year "winter", with corresponding results in Arctic in particular. Hopefully those two kinds of disaster we'll avoid; but then, rising levels of GHG gases will trap more and more heat during autumn and winter in Arctic, resulting in slower temperature drop in Arctic (both athmosphere and thus also surface water), which results in thinning of FYI,

reason #3 - albedo loss, and also, thermal inertia. The process won't stop by the moment we'll lose (nearly) all late-summer sea ice in Arctic. It will go on, with still earlier and earlier melts in Arctic and subpolar regions, which means more and more sunlight absorbed, more and more heat content. Lots of this extra heat will remain in the system through autumn and winter every year, slowing or halting thickening of FYI "from below" (warmer water) as well as "from above" - later and less snowfall, higher athmosphere and snow initial temperature, etc.

The most dramatic days will be not when we'll have 1st year of (nearly) no sea ice in Arctic during late August / early September; this will be the sign the process is now completely unstoppable, yes, - but not the most important practicall change. Most important practical change will be when Arctic will have (nearly) no sea ice during June and July - maximum insolation during those months with little albedo to speak about will result in truly dramatic change for Arctic and massive change for the rest of the Northern hemisphere, as well. I expect it to happen some time in 2020s. And even then, the actual "arrival" of most dramatic climatic effects because of such a loss of sea ice during maximum insolation months (June, July) - won't be felt "instantly" once there's no ice (and thus no albedo to talk about) - because of thermal inertia.

Now, thermal inertia in etrms of whole Earth - is the fact that it takes decades (2...5 decades, estimates vary, see http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.6821.pdf (http://arxiv.org/pdf/1307.6821.pdf) as an example) between any substantial increase of radiative forcing - and actual temperature rise. Mainly caused by huge thermal capacity of water and huge amount of water at and near Earth surface, this mechanic certainly applies to Arctic as well as to other parts of the globe. However, larger radiative forcing additions - which is the case due to Arctic amplification (and will also be further increased by gigaton-scale annual methane emissions in Arctic and subpolar regions, i dare say), - this larger _regional_ radiative forcing (annual, total) - will result in faster-than-global rate of temperature change, rate of ice thinning change, etc.

The example of lake Baikal in my previous post is excellent in several regards, one of which is ice thickness. You see, Baikal is large enough to have storms and large waves (up to 5 meters high waves in storms), much like an ocean or a sea, and insolation pattern of Baikal region is quite similar to Arctic's. It gets very little sunlight during winter - sun is above horizon for a few hours only, and it's very low, so much of sunlight is absorbed by the athmosphere before even reaching the ice. Most of what remains of sunlight - gets reflected, too. Baikal's climate is much "sea climate", too. Yet, maximum FYI thickness (all ice in Baikal is FYI, of course), - is nearly 1 meter, and even less than that if it's a snowy winter in there (can be as low as 70 centimeters). In compare, typical maximum annual thickness of FYI in Arctic - is some 3 meters, give or take.

So yes, i expect this "3 meters give or take" - in Arctic, - to become much more like Baikal's "1 meter, give or take" in about 30...40 years, and go even thinner (slowly) in further decades after that. The extent and area of maximum Arctic sea ice cover may well nearly stabilize times faster (may be in some 10...15 years), - yet substantial FYI thinning will go on for at least 5 decades, me thinks. With time, relative equilibrium between "really warm water below despite it's being during winter in Arctic", on one hand, and "very chilling athmosphre above" (which even with global warming would still be there during winter, because of polar night) on the other hand - will be achieved, with ice thickness (consideing probably lots of snow above) being some 30...50 centimeters for most of winter Arctic sea ice area by the year 2100... And most/all of Arctic, by 2100, will probably be much like Baikal in terms of no-ice months: June to December will be (nearly or even completely) sea-ice-free.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 08, 2014, 03:01:32 PM
 F.Tnioli we agree on a lot of facts and causes, we may have to agree to disagree on the implications.

We certainly agree we have already lost most of the MYI.
 
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2014/04/Figure5.png (http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2014/04/Figure5.png)
show a low point in 3+ year ice in 2011 and each year since 2011 the maximum volume has been higher. I do expect max volume to at least slowly decline, but I don't see anything in your response that rules out a high rate of decline in max volume to 2011 because of the depletion of MYI and only slower decline after 2011 because the MYI has run low.

You say "typical maximum annual thickness of FYI in Arctic - is some 3 meters, give or take. "

I don't know where you get this from. I frequently see information suggesting maximum first year ice thickness of 2m or maybe 1.8m. Maslanik et al 2007 gives provides a figure where average for FYI is about 1.45m. These seem rather approximate figures and what I don't see is anyone giving a trend for FYI thickness over time.

Maybe I am wrong and it is substantial, but without evidence, I am inclined to think that maybe the trend is small, perhaps too difficult to provide trend figures because of variability. In this case future volume at maximum might decline at a slow rate and the fast rate prior to 2011 is mainly MYI thinning to FYI thickness.

Because Baikal varies from 70cm to 1m doesn't mean that we can't have some FYI in the arctic near edges at less than 50cm, some further in at 70cm to 1m and some further in again with thickness going up to about 1.8m. What is needed is the trend in FYI thickness over time and I haven't seen you or anyone else provide such a trend figure.

I don't think the FYI thinning is negligible because it is talked about. However I don't see that you have shown the the MYI thinning prior to 2011 is small relative to FYI thinning.

Perhaps we should just agree to differ rather than keep repeating our own points?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: SCYetti on April 08, 2014, 04:20:03 PM
F.Tnioli
I am in almost complete agreement with your post. We are on a downward slope and the further we go the faster we go.

I disagree with your using a fresh water lake as an analogy for the Arctic Ocean however. Salt water behaves differently when freezing than fresh water. As fresh water cools and freezes it reaches its maximum density at about 4 degrees C. So the bottom of a freshwater lake in winter is warmer than the top. Salt water continues to gain density until it actually freezes at about -2 C. So ice can form on a lake with water temperature at the bottom being  +4C. In the Arctic the entire upper level of the halocline must be -2C for ice to form (theoretically. Water could cool and freeze faster than it could sink.)

A better comparison could be the Sea of Okhotsk or the Hudson Bay.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 08, 2014, 06:02:36 PM
Volume April 1979 by PIOMAS ~ 33 K Km^3
Area April 1979 14 M Km^2
So Average thickness 2.36m

Volume April 2014 by PIOMAS ~ 23 K Km^3
Area April 2014 ~ 13M Km^2
So Average thickness 1.77m

How FYI could have been 3m thick when MYI is thicker than FYI escapes me.

http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/pdf/ASMtalks/StudentDay/Galley.pdf (http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/pdf/ASMtalks/StudentDay/Galley.pdf)
on page 7 says
Quote
first-year sea ice can grow to typical
depths of ~1.80m in the Arctic
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 08, 2014, 07:04:18 PM
How FYI could have been 3m thick when MYI is thicker than FYI escapes me.

It escapes me too. As already discussed above, Barneo seems to be sat on a floe around 1.4m thick at the moment. IMB 2013F is sitting on second year ice in the Beaufort that is currently thinner than the 1.8m you just quoted for FYI. IMB 2013G is on MYI 2.64m thick
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 08, 2014, 08:28:42 PM
Crandles - volume is the key, and F Tinoli, I think it embodies the thermal inertia - buffering - you allude to.

As raised by others, what is of considerable question, is how thickness is distributed, and what that implies regarding the buffer available to soak up summer heat.  Here, I'm with Jim Hunt and others; I'm not so sure we have as much buffer as we think.  The relief of supposedly thicker ice may be illusory as well, because it is asymmetrically distributed.  I think we almost certainly will end up with a shattered patchwork, as thinner ice formed in leads, never able to thicken adequately due to warmth, disappears. That is a poor recipe for retention.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: lanevn on April 08, 2014, 08:54:44 PM
Popular now shale gas can be more AGW friendly than even coal, because significant part of it just escaping to atmosfere during fracture. Looks like no real research about this, but there were some videos with flaming water and etc.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Buddy on April 08, 2014, 09:11:50 PM
<<Looks like no real research about this, but there were some videos with flaming water and etc.>>

Actually.....there has been some research on that.  I know that some folks from Duke University did some research on that, and found that once you include the "leakage".......that drilling for nat gas is as bad or worse than most coal fired plants.  That was a couple years ago......and I'll bet there has been additional research since.  I'll see if I can find the links and then post....
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: RaenorShine on April 08, 2014, 09:20:52 PM
Radio ecoshock had a piece on Methane leaks from the gas system as a whole a couple of weeks ago. http://www.ecoshock.info/2014/03/the-center-sees-edge-methane-science.html (http://www.ecoshock.info/2014/03/the-center-sees-edge-methane-science.html).

He interviewed Dr. Adam R. Brandt whose paper "Methane Leaks from North American Natural Gas Systems" was published in the February 14th edition of the journal "Science".http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6172/733.summary (http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6172/733.summary) (paywalled)

The interview covered a lot of the detail though.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Bob Wallace on April 09, 2014, 07:14:37 AM
We have one study of NG wells which found that for the wells studied, leakage was well controlled and escape into the atmosphere was minimal.  That does not mean that all wells are the same, but it suggests that will proper regulation and enforcement well leakage could be held at a low amount.

Leakage is bad in our old urban distribution systems.  Gas for our stoves, furnaces, water heaters.  Here's an area of Boston.

 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgraphics8.nytimes.com%2Fimages%2F2012%2F11%2F19%2Fblogs%2Fdotmethanebostonaerial%2Fdotmethanebostonaerial-blog480.jpg&hash=cf354d5e02904579e983718ce4d3122c)

 And you should remember the people killed and houses destroyed in California a couple years back as well as the more recent deaths and building destruction in Washington, D.C.

Whether we use NG for electricity production or not, we need to address distribution leaks.

We might not gain much by a 1:1 replacement with coal by NG.  But that's not the role NG needs to play.  Right now NG is a workable fill-in for wind and solar.  We need dispatchable generation while we work out better storage solutions.

In windy areas such as the US Midwest the wind blows a lot of hours.  Not sometimes, but at significant strength more than 75% of the time.  And the Sun shines right during the part of the day when demand is highest.  It's conceivable that we could get 40+% of our electricity directly from wind farms, 30% direct from solar panels.

If that's the case then natural gas's role would be to provide the " other <30%".  We would shut down a coal plant and replace it with only 30% NG, not 100% NG.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 09, 2014, 07:41:34 AM
There's also the mean atmospheric lifetime of methane, which is much lower than that of CO2.

Even if methane has ~34 time the GHG potential, the short lifetime (IMO) makes it a less significant pollutant.

So a NG shift from coal results in less long term GHG emissions.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on April 09, 2014, 07:55:40 AM
Ice, that figure of ~34 x the global warming potential of CO2 already takes into account the short life time of methane in the atmosphere, since it is for its GWP over century time scales. Bring the times scale down to the decade level, and the GWP rises to over 100.

I still think we should mover rapidly away from coal, but we shouldn't pretend methane is any kind of godsend wrt gw. Especially given all the direct leakage of methane to the atmosphere that fracking seems to entail.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 09, 2014, 08:30:20 AM
The hell with the effect of activism on opinion or directives by whatever government.  The physics is what it is.  You may wafflle all you wish. The environmental conditions will still be there.

(to those who have political gravis who may or may not be watching)
You've seen the facts.  What the hell are you going to do to address the problem?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 09, 2014, 09:25:43 AM
Thanks for mentioning that wili, I went and read this and think I understand it better.  (http://www.global-chance.org/IMG/pdf/CH4march2008.pdf)

I agree that Methane is bad. Much worse in the short term as far as AGW goes.

The only salvation is that due to the short life time, CH4 forcing will drop shortly after emissions decrease. I hope that this transient rise in AGW will increase the change in energy generation.

Relevant to the thread topic:
A transient spike in forcing and AGW, as long as the GIS and WAIS do not collapse; is much easier overcome than the centuries of forcing related to the release of CO2.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 09, 2014, 10:54:48 AM
Volume April 1979 by PIOMAS ~ 33 K Km^3
Area April 1979 14 M Km^2
So Average thickness 2.36m

Volume April 2014 by PIOMAS ~ 23 K Km^3
Area April 2014 ~ 13M Km^2
So Average thickness 1.77m

How FYI could have been 3m thick when MYI is thicker than FYI escapes me.

http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/pdf/ASMtalks/StudentDay/Galley.pdf (http://www.arcticnet.ulaval.ca/pdf/ASMtalks/StudentDay/Galley.pdf)
on page 7 says
Quote
first-year sea ice can grow to typical
depths of ~1.80m in the Arctic
Typical 1.80, yes. Did i say "typical"? No. I said "maximum" FYI thickness. "Maximum" and "typical" - are two different things. "Average" is also not "maximum". Perhaps you thought i meant "maximum average thickness" in terms of maximum annual value of the avreage FYI thickness? I didn't. I meant absolute maximum thickness of FYI "in some spot" - i.e. "how thick FYI can get in a single place".

As for where i get it from - why, looking at graphs here and there, i love those color-coded maps. It's much faster than to dig into mountains of discrete data, too. For example, one can see clear map for where FYI (and MYI) was located during MArch 2013 here: figure 5 on https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/tag/first-year-ice/ (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/tag/first-year-ice/) page. According to it, there was no MYI to talk about near north shores of Alaska and Chukotka. Very conviniently, figure 6 of the same page presents ice thickness map (also color-coded), for March 2012 (right image of the figure 6). It is made based on Cryosat-2 data - which means it's not some smarty-pants model, but actual "what was there in reality" measurement. And on it, i can definitely see some green color (means, ~3 meters thick ice) near north shores of Alaska and Chukotka - considering the scale of those images, we are talking here about thousands of square kilometers of such ice. There are even few small patches of almost-yellow - which means it's hundreds square kilometers of ~3.5-meter-thick FYI there.

Why those locations get maximum FYI thickness - i don't know for sure, probably a combination of relatively cold near-surfgace water currents and extra-chill of the athmosphere from much-more-rapidly cooling large landmass nearby (Alaska and Chukotka, i mean). Still, it's very easy to see that maximum thickness of FYI is indeed ~3 meters, give or take; while typical FYI thickness is, indeed, some 1.8 meters.

There's also the mean atmospheric lifetime of methane, which is much lower than that of CO2.

Even if methane has ~34 time the GHG potential, the short lifetime (IMO) makes it a less significant pollutant. ...
I'd add to previous reply to this that i've recently estimated methane's greenhouse-effect CO2 equivalent ratio (by mass) for a duration which is many times shorter than methane's half-life (which is 1 year or any shorter duration), using two different methods (quite rude, but simple ones) to do so. 1st method gave me x124. Second gave me x131. This is close to results many other people get - including most competent scientists, - for short-term methane GHG potency.

Also, methane can't be "less significant pollutant" than CO2 - EVER, because in the athmosphere, methane (CH4) gradually turns into carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour (H2O). For every CH4 molecula, one CO2 molecula is formed. Thus, methane _becomes_ CO2, with 1 to 1 ratio - and CO2 can't be "less significant pollutant" than CO2, can it? On top of CO2, said reaction also forms 2 moleculas of water, and water vapour is a strong GHG gas as well.

...
The only salvation is that due to the short life time, CH4 forcing will drop shortly after emissions decrease. I hope that this transient rise in AGW will increase the change in energy generation.

Relevant to the thread topic:
A transient spike in forcing and AGW, as long as the GIS and WAIS do not collapse; is much easier overcome than the centuries of forcing related to the release of CO2.
Unfortunately, methane deposits (in the form of gas and in the form of methane clathrates), plus organic until-now-permafrost soils and seabed layers which emit large amounts of methane once thawed (due to bacterial unaerobic decomposition of organic compounds), - all this in total, in Arctic alone (not talking sub-polar, not talking deep-ocean deposits even closer to equator, and not talking any southern hemisphere) - is estimated to be more than 10 thousands gigatons. ESAS alone contains some ~1400 gigatons of methane, and it's burping much already. Some places near Norway are also emitting methane massively already. AMEG says it was more than 100 millons tons of methane emitted in 2013 in Arctic. I.e., 0.1+ gigaton. Annual emissions back in 1980 were, iirc, some 7 millions tons or something like that.

In other words, there are LOTS of methane presently frozen or trapped under frozen soil and sea floor - more than 10.000.000.000.000 tons of it. What methane Arctic emits so far, - is only a tiny fraction of what will be emitted annually once Arctic warms up for real (i.e., loses most of its June'July ice and snow, this most of its albedo during those high-insolation months).

You said: "after emissions decrease". Well. Bad news are, methane emissions in Arctic won't start to decrease for at very least ~120 years from now. May be times longer, even. By 2025, i think Arctic will release some ~1.5 gigatons of methane annually, plus-minus 70% of that. By 2050, may be some 2.5...5 gigatons. By 2100, perhaps some 4...20 gigatons. Yet, if this will be the pace, - then during 21st century, Arctic will release only some 500 gigatons of methane, total (something of this order of magnitude, i mean). Yet, 500 gigatons - is less than 5% of the total amount (which is, again, more than 10,000 gigatons - probably much more). So even if most of potentially releasable (because of disappearance of permafrosts)  methane will remain in the ground for CENTURIES, - the lesser part is still enough to maintain 1+ gigaton annual Arctic methane emissions for several hundreds years.

It a major deal for whole planet; for Arctic itself - it's enourmous, since being point of origin, it'll naturally have higher concentration of methane. It already does, substantially.

Therefore, "after emissions decrease" = "some 500+ years in the future". Frankly, i don't think it's any kind of "salvation" to the current AGW situation... And, both GIS and WAIS will probably collapse in 500 years (i know old papers say it's "thousands years" for WAIS - but old papers have many massive underestimates, besides, who knew, back in 1990s and 1970s, that last two decades - to nowadays, - will be most feverish GHG emissions ever done). Some chances are WAIS wouldn't fully collapse in 500 years, - but GIS will definitely collapse, and much faster than in 500 years, too. No doubt about it.

P.S. By the way, there are some 50,000+ people permanently living in Greenland. It's a country. They have a capital city (more like, a town). In it, they had nice little bridge over a river - two dozens meters or so. They "had" it, because at some point few years ago, the bridge was washed away. Literally. Too much meltwater going outta GIS. They probably rebuilt the bridge, for now, since it connects two "halves" of the town - much needed bridge, important one. But i think, in about 15 years, this whole capital town of Greenland will be washed away right into the ocean - sooner or later, they'll get large enough melt pulse (it's when large mass of water trapped inside ice sheet - finds an exit "down and out"). By the way, i believe that this is the type of event which, during last ice age's end (deglaciation), caused lots of death - and gave humans survivavors strong memories about "great flood", which eventually ended up written down in several religions (among others, in the Bible, too).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 09, 2014, 11:33:46 AM
Thank you for the reply to where you got the 3m from. I note that green colours run from about 2.5m to 3.5m and there is even a spot or two of yellow. Also the area is against land so the ice is likely deformed to get up to that thickness.

When talking about growth of first year ice, I was talking about thermodynamic growth rather than growth by deformation and I should have made that clearer, sorry. For thermodynamic growth, I am sticking to Maslanik et al 2007 average thickness of 1.45m which I believe includes a lot up to 1.8m maybe even 2m according to many sources as well as a lot of thinner ice around the edge of the pack. If that seems strangely limited not far above the average, it is because of there being an equilibrium thermodynamic thickness so that thermodynamic growth stops as it reaches that thickness. I suppose you could have an area of thicker undeformed ice if the upward heat flux was unusually low. That happens to be an area that gets quite warm with pacific water not far below the ice so I wouldn't expect low upward heat flux there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 09, 2014, 12:13:38 PM
May be you're right. I thought about deformation, too, long story short, i think much or all of yellow there - might be it, and some of green, too, - but not most of green. Perhaps i am wrong, though. Even then, the initial point stands. Be it 3m or 2m for "how thick Arctic FYI can grow by itself", - it'll still go down to (eventually) much less than 1 meter.

Oh, and also, about the fact that Baikal - is fresh water. Why, sure it is. Means it freezes _easier_. And faster. Than Arctic during same conditions, i mean. As for "fresh water has a peak density at 4 degrees celsius, but sea water does not" - practically irrelevant, i believe; like i said, i think that ice formation in Arctic starts with snow (which falls into the ocean, initially melts, forms a layer of low-salinity water and cools down the surface quickly, and as more snow arrives, ice "skin" starts to form). Thing is, fresh water is lighter (less dense) than sea water. I don't remember any numbers right now, but iirc, even half of salinity difference between typical sea water and fresh water - causes more density difference then any water temperature difference in the range of -2...6C would. This means that even relatively warm sea water (some 6+ degrees celsius) - is still heavier than 0 degrees celcius fresh water. Now just imagine what will happen with a single snowflake landing into Arctic sea water during some November, then imagine few gazillions of similar snowflakes landing nearby - you'll get the picture.

... If that seems strangely limited not far above the average, it is because of there being an equilibrium thermodynamic thickness so that thermodynamic growth stops as it reaches that thickness. I suppose you could have an area of thicker undeformed ice if the upward heat flux was unusually low. That happens to be an area that gets quite warm with pacific water not far below the ice so I wouldn't expect low upward heat flux there.
No, doesn't seem strange. I meant exactly this equilibrium, too. As waters get warmer (especially after the start of gigaton-scale (annual) methane releases, and also as a result of "giving up" thermal inertia - one enhances the other) - upward heat flux will increase in all locations (some faster, some other slower). Minimum winter athmosphere temperatures will rise, as well, reducing "cooling from above". Also, growth - in permanent conditions, - never completely "stops"; it slows down dramatically, yes, but never completely stops. It'd take infinite number of years - again, if to consider permanent conditions - for it to stop. Which means, length of freezing season is also a factor. And this length will be shortening; already is, significantly.

And about "quite warm with pacific water not far below the ice" - i see, yes, this is major factor. However, if your own statement about most/all of this green/yellow being deformed ice - is true, - then it means lots of ice is pushed into the region from central Arctic. And most of this ice is substantially colder than -2 degrees celsius for most of the freezing season time. If so much of it arrives into the region, then it has massive impact to temperatures of water _directly_ behind the ice, i think. Thus reducing said heat flux, i guess. But then it'd allow "not deformed" ice "downstream" to grow faster/thicker, you see?

Whole thing is damn interconnected, too much, for sure. Still, no use to try to understand simplifications if resulting udnerstanding gives much different (to reality) behaviour of a model (even if it's only "how i think it happens", thought-only "model"). Hope you see what i mean here.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 09, 2014, 01:51:50 PM
@All - Any chance we can keep this thread at least loosely on the topic of "The 2014 Melting Season"? There's any number of other places on here to discuss things like methane (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,39.0/), fracking (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,756) etc.

@F.Tnioli - Regarding all the colour coded maps, they don't agree with each other and the CryoSat 2 numbers are also the output of a different sort of mathematical model. At the recent Sea Ice Prediction Network meeting (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,803.0.html) when the question of assimilating satellite thickness data into the sea ice models was raised the opinion expressed was along the lines of "CryoSat 2 is still a work in progress (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg16085.html#msg16085)".
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 09, 2014, 03:26:35 PM
...
@F.Tnioli - Regarding all the colour coded maps, they don't agree with each other and the CryoSat 2 numbers are also the output of a different sort of mathematical model. At the recent Sea Ice Prediction Network meeting (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,803.0.html) when the question of assimilating satellite thickness data into the sea ice models was raised the opinion expressed was along the lines of "CryoSat 2 is still a work in progress (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg16085.html#msg16085)".
CryoSat 2 numbers (for sea ice thickness) - are not any sort of output of any mathematical model. Instead, they are the output of SAR/Interferometric Radar Altimeters onboard the satellite, each of the two of those altimeters is able to track changes in the thickness of the ice with a resolution of about 1.3 centimetres. Radar interferometry is, of course, a thing done with mathematics, but i wouldn't call it a "model" for a simple reason: it is possible to calibrate those instruments using in-situ (submarine-based, etc) data for ice thickness.

In the same time, i readily believe the last sentense of the quote. Indeed, _assimilating_ satellite thickness data into _sea ice models_ - is not an easy task, and quite possibly not only a work in progress, but a work which won't be possible to complete in a satisfying manner. Yet, i don't think it is sattelites which are the problem; rather, i think it is models which is the problem. Because, you see, i'd rather believe that complex computer model of Earth climate (or at least, Arctic) - is substantially wrong, than to believe that relatively simple thing - radar interferometry, - is wrong.

The argument "color maps disagree with each other" - sure, there are lots of badly made ones, partially or mostly incorrect ones, etc. The one i gave as an example, however, is done using cutting-edge satellite (cryosat-2), and published not by some blogger, but by National Snow and Ice Data Center. And if my memory serves, this bunch has a reputation for knowing what they are doing. At least, relatively to most other similar scientific bodies.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 09, 2014, 03:48:18 PM
CryoSat 2 numbers (for sea ice thickness) - are not any sort of output of any mathematical model. Instead, they are the output of SAR/Interferometric Radar Altimeters onboard the satellite, each of the two of those altimeters is able to track changes in the thickness of the ice with a resolution of about 1.3 centimetres.

No what is measured is free board. Calculating thickness from free board means values of snow thickness,  snow density and ice density needs to be known.
There are severe doubts about how accurate these are known, for snow a climatic value is used, for ice density you need to know the ice type.
See also the Piomas vs Cryosat thread for the uncertainty in the mathematical model used to calculate the free board that you so easily take for granted : https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg19424.html#msg19424 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg19424.html#msg19424)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 09, 2014, 04:21:29 PM
@All - Any chance we can keep this thread at least loosely on the topic of "The 2014 Melting Season"? There's any number of other places on here to discuss things like methane (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,39.0/), fracking (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,756) etc.

April is the month where seemingly nothing special happens wrt area or extent. at least looking at CT SIA numbers the speed of ice loss hasn't increased one bit in the 34 years. If 2014 follows the pattern of 4 past years (2010-2014) the earliest larger deviations from the climatological normal could be seen on the last week of May, so if some newcomer is after news regarding the ice loss in the Arctic then the beginning of June might be the time to revisit here. In the following image I've smoothed the daily deviations, so if you don't get a similar image that's the reason. The x-axis is divided to lunar weeks, so the color codes are not accurate representations of Gregorian months. If the past is any clue, there's a period of 5 weeks until nothing significant starts to happen. In fact I might take a vacation from here too until then.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 09, 2014, 05:07:32 PM
If the past is any clue, there's a period of 5 weeks until nothing significant starts to happen. In fact I might take a vacation from here too until then.

Well it's currently somewhere around zero degrees in Tiksi, which I figure is not insignificant! Here's a view of the Laptev Sea from on high (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-09&map=332416,1536384,701056,1708160) earlier today:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 09, 2014, 05:57:22 PM

Well it's currently somewhere around zero degrees in Tiksi, which I figure is not insignificant!


Well that could be early, but daily averages are still almost -10C. +7,5 degree anomaly it looks like.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_01.rnl.gif (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_01.rnl.gif)
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_01a.rnl.gif (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/rnl/sfctmpmer_01a.rnl.gif)

There's still time for "Arctic Ocean-effect snow" to cover the High North in many feet
of snow.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: helorime on April 09, 2014, 06:35:04 PM
It's 12 in Pevek, but -17 in Cape Lisburne.  Pevek is farther north and not that far away, but it is in Russia not Alaska. The whole Asian side has been running hot and the America side running cold.  Why is that?

http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm (http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: helorime on April 09, 2014, 06:38:35 PM
It is 26 in Khatanga.... that's 79 F! And it is farther north than Barrow.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wanderer on April 09, 2014, 06:53:54 PM
https://www.google.at/#q=Khatanga+weather (https://www.google.at/#q=Khatanga+weather)  ?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on April 09, 2014, 06:54:26 PM
It is 26 in Khatanga.... that's 79 F! And it is farther north than Barrow.

That figure is listed from  Jul 19, 2013 3:00 PM

Unless I'm much mistaken it's around -1c right now in Khatanga. Roughly 30ish fahrenheit
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: helorime on April 09, 2014, 09:15:12 PM
Oho!  No WONDER it looked so weird.  I totally missed the "Weather report as of -13667 minutes ago (07:00 UTC):"

 :-[
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 10, 2014, 12:13:25 AM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover is falling apart faster and faster.

The last two days have seen major losses on both sides.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXcKuu7x.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXcKuu7x.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=3ed4dea7a650a6d650537b440313a7f4)

Huge losses are coming to SE Russia the next 5 days.

Then Western Russia gets super torched.

This is from yesterday:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2014098.png&hash=4224878a29a2c99d4eb6ab75a6563885)

Still to come:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmeteomodel.pl%2Fklimat%2Fgfsanom_np.png&hash=f5fb4a65283da2a0d5066057aa20ff95)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 10, 2014, 12:46:40 AM
Loo at the Indian and Tropical Atlantics.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtCCCOeT.gif&hash=7fd827eed1595dcc57695bb540b9ae95)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 10, 2014, 08:11:11 AM
No what is measured is free board. Calculating thickness from free board means values of snow thickness,  snow density and ice density needs to be known.
There are severe doubts about how accurate these are known, for snow a climatic value is used, for ice density you need to know the ice type.
See also the Piomas vs Cryosat thread for the uncertainty in the mathematical model used to calculate the free board that you so easily take for granted : https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg19424.html#msg19424 (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,8.msg19424.html#msg19424)
Thank you for this info. I didn't know. After all, they say it's ice which is measured. Sigh. Anyhows, this is still massively simpler thing than any fully coupled model, isn't it. Thus my previous logic still stands (to a lesser degree) - if "models" meant were fully-coupled (or comparable in complexity) models, that is.

On the other hand, if even cryosat-2 can't give us any reliable ice thickness for (most of) the Arctic - then what can? Without full picture, maximum thickness as well as any precise average thickness - can't be known, i guess. So it's not like we get any better source, right?

One other thing is about how this all relates to the melt season (including this one). I know that some significant portion of the melt season has most of Arctic ice still present, while the snow is already gone. Did anyone try to find out when and how this happens, and apply Cryosat-2 numbers to such an occasion? Without snow, and with knowing density of the ice relatively well (i mean, it can't vary by any huge amount, can it?) - Cryosat-2 numbers can be very interesting thing to look at, eh.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 10, 2014, 11:05:53 AM
On the other hand, if even cryosat-2 can't give us any reliable ice thickness for (most of) the Arctic - then what can?

There is of course Operation IceBridge (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,779.0.html).

Failing that, here's the best that I can come up with in a hurry, although additional suggestions are always welcome:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 10, 2014, 02:12:14 PM

Thank you for this info. I didn't know. After all, they say it's ice which is measured. Sigh. Anyhows, this is still massively simpler thing than any fully coupled model, isn't it. Thus my previous logic still stands (to a lesser degree) - if "models" meant were fully-coupled (or comparable in complexity) models, that is.

Well, no. There may be or not be a massive amount of modeling in creating the crysosat or piomas data. Piomas is not a free running simulation, the "a" stands for assimilation of real world measurements. What matters is the uncertainties in the results, and the scientist do make efforts to specify and if possible minimize the errors. (That involves even more calculations and measurements).

Quote
maximum thickness as well as any precise average thickness - can't be known, i guess. So it's not like we get any better source, right?

"precise" is an imprecise term, nothing is fully precise and everything is know with some precision. Of course by direct measurements (in situ, buoys, submarines) we can have some independ data, to which the cryosat and piomas values can be compared with. See the piomas website for the "uncertainties".

Quote
One other thing is about how this all relates to the melt season (including this one). I know that some significant portion of the melt season has most of Arctic ice still present, while the snow is already gone. Did anyone try to find out when and how this happens, and apply Cryosat-2 numbers to such an occasion? Without snow, and with knowing density of the ice relatively well (i mean, it can't vary by any huge amount, can it?) - Cryosat-2 numbers can be very interesting thing to look at, eh.

Alas, the cryosat does not work in the melting season (requires dry ice/snow). No data at all. Same for SMOS, it is a big problem that most we know of volume in the melting season is from piomas.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 10, 2014, 10:13:20 PM
Ice mass balance buoy 2014D (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014D.htm), located off Northern Greenland, has now started reporting top and bottom sounder readings. They currently state:

Snow depth : 34 cm
Ice thickness : 336 cm
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 10, 2014, 10:20:50 PM
Ice mass balance buoy 2014D (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014D.htm), located off Northern Greenland, has now started reporting top and bottom sounder readings. They currently state:

Snow depth : 34 cm
Ice thickness : 336 cm

Pos: 84.00 N, 38.21 W
Initial Location: Beaufort Sea

Beaufort Sea ??
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 10, 2014, 11:48:08 PM
Ice mass balance buoy 2014D (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/2014D.htm), located off Northern Greenland, has now started reporting top and bottom sounder readings. They currently state:

Snow depth : 34 cm
Ice thickness : 336 cm

Pos: 84.00 N, 38.21 W
Initial Location: Beaufort Sea

Beaufort Sea ??

Obviously a mistake...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 11, 2014, 12:00:19 AM
Snow depth : 34 cm
Ice thickness : 336 cm
Not bad result. It is not so bad. Unless...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2014, 12:17:28 AM
Beaufort Sea ??

A misprint. The thermistor readings seem be back to front at present also!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jmo on April 11, 2014, 02:38:49 AM
I've not seen this surface wind map before.  Very useful. Severe TC Ita off NE Australia looks impressive, so too the lows over Siberia and SE Greenland...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-290.58,87.17,1137 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-290.58,87.17,1137)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 11, 2014, 10:28:18 AM
Alas, the cryosat does not work in the melting season (requires dry ice/snow). No data at all. Same for SMOS, it is a big problem that most we know of volume in the melting season is from piomas.
"Requires"?

According to https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/envisat/instruments/ra-2/design , the frequency 13.575GHz (which is used for radar altimetry instruments of the Cryosat-2 (afaict), too) - is indeed affected by H2O in the athmosphere; however, it says, quote, "The effect of water vapour is smaller than oxygen, but much more variable. It can range from virtually zero over the high, dry ice caps, to about 40 cm in tropical regions". Arctic is not a tropical region, too. And all the sea ice is very near sea level, too - no "high caps" at all. So it is way less than 0.4m possible difference between "most dry" and "most wet" in Arctic, i guess.

Furthermore, the same page mentions using forecasts for the extraction of water vapour signature. If it's a method worth mentioning, then it gotta be at least somewhat effective.

Last but not least, even if high humidity brings unacceptable error in terms of comparing thickness from different months, - then still, most of this uncertainty is gone if the data is only used to compare thickness from the same single month (or even shorter particular period of a year) collected during several / many years. Assuming same months being on average similar in terms of amount of water vapour in the Arctic. I.e., comparing "wet" periods only with other "wet" periods, if to talk most imprecisely.

I'd rather suspect that the collaboration itself is not willing to release any data for melting periods. Reasons may be many, possibly including pressure (or worse) from AGW-di$mi$$ing entities.

Only IMHO, of course. And i definitely hope the last bit is wrong, too.


P.S. _If_ "precise" is not any precise for real, then also, "imprecise" is not any imprecise: inversion is a both-way symmetric operation all around the math and logic, isn't it. Therefore, when you said ""precise" is an imprecise term"", - you made a nil statement. Doesn't mean a thing. But yet, somehow i feel i get what you mean, and i agree with you there, per se; though i didn't mean this sort of precision you talk about - the absolute sort. I definitely was not expecting (nor will be expecting) to see thickness average values with a gazillion meaningful digits after the decimal, hehehe... :D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2014, 11:22:21 AM
Severe TC Ita off NE Australia looks impressive

More on Ita at: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,825 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,825)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 11, 2014, 11:29:47 AM
Quote
P.S. _If_ "precise" is not any precise for real, then also, "imprecise" is not any imprecise: inversion is a both-way symmetric operation all around the math and logic, isn't it. Therefore, when you said ""precise" is an imprecise term"", - you made a nil statement.

Sorry FT, I couldn't let this one go.

You are implying that because A is not equal to B then B is not equal to B. It's not an inversion, it's a sub-set. Be careful how you extrapolate logical statements.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Phil. on April 11, 2014, 12:37:35 PM
Alas, the cryosat does not work in the melting season (requires dry ice/snow). No data at all. Same for SMOS, it is a big problem that most we know of volume in the melting season is from piomas.
"Requires"?

According to https://earth.esa.int/web/guest/missions/esa-operational-eo-missions/envisat/instruments/ra-2/design , the frequency 13.575GHz (which is used for radar altimetry instruments of the Cryosat-2 (afaict), too) - is indeed affected by H2O in the athmosphere; however, it says, quote, "The effect of water vapour is smaller than oxygen, but much more variable. It can range from virtually zero over the high, dry ice caps, to about 40 cm in tropical regions". Arctic is not a tropical region, too. And all the sea ice is very near sea level, too - no "high caps" at all. So it is way less than 0.4m possible difference between "most dry" and "most wet" in Arctic, i guess.

It's the liquid water on the surface which is the problem not the water vapor.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 11, 2014, 01:09:48 PM
I've written a script to "logically invert" the raw thermistor readings from IMB 2014D. Here's the resulting Google Maps/Earth output (http://batchgeo.com/map/imb-2014d) and initial temperature profile:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 11, 2014, 04:00:28 PM
As far as extent and area go, we've had a fairly benign start to the melt season. One very notable feature has been the strong dipole anomaly and very strong winds aiding the transpolar drift, blowing right from the Bering sea down through to Svalbard.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F1Ntwg2u.gif&hash=ad76cba2bb2e825affdb4c4821d0bb9d)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FcA8uzaI.gif&hash=8e8b43e459f9df2f0c408b56d9990753)

As expected at this time of year, the dipole has reduced the level of extent loss by increasing the ice levels in the Barents and Greenland sea, but has also helped to export more of the thicker ice, potentially leaving the pack vulnerable to later warmth.

Looking at the next 5 days, things look quite interesting, with a continuation of the general dipole pattern, a rather powerful storm during the weekend and the potential for some strong melt over the Kara and Bering sea into next week.

First off, the weekend storm.
It's already forming now, by the New Siberian Islands on the image below
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fa67C5ia.png&hash=4f829557a4112aed7bb3089a9be5918b)

It reaches it's peak intensity early tomorrow, with a central pressure below 960hPa as it moves toward the central Arctic.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FsdveGN5.png&hash=a9b6b641ad3f9ab122fc27bfdb943ced)

It remains quite strong into Sunday. All the while, high pressure over the Canadian Archipelago and Beaufort means very strong winds blowing toward Fram, giving the export an added boost.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCRxCa6H.png&hash=f3f91bb2a5f197976584bc1573b99347)

This storm is unlikely to causes too much noticeable disruption to the pack at this time of year, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Shortly after, some anomalously mild air makes its way into the Bering strait region, with 850hPa values just below 0C and well above average.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FweESeJG.png&hash=a7f375d2f82bfed4b20d29827227f3cf)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fbl06yOf.png&hash=2fc766b43170241f808146a856ac1771)

After that, things fail to cool down much around the Bering Stait/Beaufort region, remaining relatively mild with increasingly slack or southerly winds, while several bouts of mild and stormy southerlies hit the Kara/Barents regions. The pattern below repeating itself during the week
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FigV2KmB.png&hash=c88a90dcac9a1fc2a6946e0c2df3129f)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Frkdw4Hw.png&hash=038a3555f5fb4833cee76fb2d5285876)

Anyway, nothing truly exceptional coming up, but plenty of interest nonetheless.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 11, 2014, 08:55:39 PM
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Freezes, 0.2 million km2 within 6 days. Why?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 11, 2014, 09:27:26 PM
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Freezes, 0.2 million km2 within 6 days. Why?
Supposition - significant expansion of leads at high latitude, refreeze of the expanses.  Sadly, almost certainly not "good" ice. As temperatures are quite high over all ... > -20C ... The ice won't have a chance to get past a few 10s of centimeters in thickness.  In areas like the Laptev that are due to get quite warm, it may disappear quickly.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on April 11, 2014, 10:17:18 PM
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Freezes, 0.2 million km2 within 6 days. Why?

I don't know why, but I have a distinct impression that the CT anomaly has been smallest at this time of year over recent years. Biggest neg anomaly in October, smallest neg anomaly in April. In 2012, there was even a 1 day pos anomaly...

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.recent.arctic.png)

In 2012, that turned out to be a very bad sign for the ice in September - the extra ice was in the Bering, mainly, and unsurprisingly, 100% of that melted. Perhaps, the cold that formed that marginal ice wasted its (lack of) energy, which might have been better employed thickening the ice in the Central Arctic, which could then have perhaps survived.

Also, and OTOH,

1. Average temps 80°+N have just dipped below average...

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

2. As wayne has noted over on the blog, it has been really cold this winter over on the American side. The Canadian Archipelago ice is strong and healthy. It would not astound me if the NW Passage does not entirely clear this year.

It's even conceivable that this year we could get an ice free Arctic - i.e. less than 1M km2 ice - with the NW Passage still blocked with ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 12, 2014, 08:20:14 AM
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)

Freezes, 0.2 million km2 within 6 days. Why?

Expect a decrease of nearly 0.2 million km2 within the next 2 days:

-37.1 -154.0
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 12, 2014, 12:09:02 PM
1. Average temps 80°+N have just dipped below average...

What was open water north of Svalbard (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-11&map=162592,-926784,1800992,-174144) (and hence north of  80°) is now mostly covered with (albeit thin) ice:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 12, 2014, 07:03:15 PM
1. Average temps 80°+N have just dipped below average...

What was open water north of Svalbard (and hence north of  80°) is now mostly covered with (albeit thin) ice:

Most of the coverage is actually drift out of the CAB.  There is rather little new ice.  The SSTs are to high.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrf_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 12, 2014, 10:40:33 PM
Good news (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2014-field-reports/) from Barneo:

Quote
NPEO 2014 Report #10
= Friday, April 11 Barneo – Iridium call from Jamie Morison
The WHOI team plus Jamie Morison and Dean Stewart, with Sergei Pisarev and a few  of his colleagues flew upstream down latitude 180° from Barneo and planted their 2014 buoy farm, which includes an Ice Tethered Profiler (ITP), an Autonomous Ocean Flux Buoy, an Ice Mass Balance (IMB) Buoy, and one Surface Velocity Program (SVP) Buoy.  Deployments went smoothly enough that Rick, Chris, and Jeff made it back to Barneo in time to catch the An-74  out to Longyearbyen.  The Twin Otter is due to arrive at Barneo from Canada late tonight.


NPEO 2014 Report #9

= Thursday, April 10 Barneo – Iridium call from Jamie Morison
Webcam#1 was set up on a box outside their hut and transmitted three good-quality images over Iridium.  Webcam#1′s battery tube was installed on the floe with the earlier-deployed buoys.  The WHOI team, Rick Krishfield, Kris Newhall, and Jeff Pietro,  arrived and prepared for the buoy party tomorrow.

Plus some pictures (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/)!

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140410104916.jpg&hash=e564bea202580fd14576a66867018bf8)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 12, 2014, 10:52:43 PM
Most of the coverage is actually drift out of the CAB.  There is rather little new ice.

However old it is, it looks to be pretty thin:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: RunningChristo on April 12, 2014, 11:59:06 PM
The very strong lowpressure hoovering over the Russian part of the Arctic is really gonna crack Things up! The crack from Laptev all the way to the Bering strait grew Much in just 1 day, according to the Lance-Modis daily pics! Must be ideal for a Perfect kickstart for the meltingseason?! Can't remember a lowpressure this strong at this time of the year for the years after the 2007 season?!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 13, 2014, 12:15:17 AM
More large snowcover losses.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWLxd0Fj.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWLxd0Fj.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=9074f221502a4029477217f5a5e09cda)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2014, 12:57:59 AM
Just in time before the North Pole buoys start reporting, I've just finished a rather hastily constructed overview page of all my Arctic ice mass balance buoy information:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/)

Constructive criticism welcome!  Here's the most recent addition. Unfortunately it looks as though the thermistors on 2013I have just gone on the blink:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on April 13, 2014, 06:56:13 AM
Quote
1. Average temps 80°+N have just dipped below average...

Whew!!! thank goodness!  I was afraid that the arctic sea ice "recovery" was going to be delayed this year.

 :P
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 13, 2014, 11:52:42 AM
Continuing RunningChristo's post...

I've enhanced all MODIS tiles and framed them in my CAD format to have a fresh look on the current quality state of the sea ice.
He's right, this energetic Low is wrenching the whole pack in a counterclock way. because it is the opposite of the normal gyre, the wrenching is opening up cracks and leads everywhere.

The large stress lead along the Siberian fastice is the most pronounced feature. But there's also a matrix of open cracks on the line East Sib Sea-Beaufort Sea.
The round-up also shows in the Lincoln Sea. A torn lead-system on 400 km from the Pole looks like it will provide massive difficulties for Expedition Hope within a few days.

Other remarkable impressions:
-the Beaufort ice looks pretty broken and shows a mosaic of very small to 400 km2 floes within a pattern of greyish leads. I guess the whiter floes are what HYCOM suggests MYI 2-3 m thick. The grey leads cover a substantial total area; these might be 'maximum' FYI, up to 180cm.
For the nearby melt pattern, remember that 'winter power'wasn't great here, >+4dC temp anomaly!
-the Barentsz sea ice, shown impressively red on UniBremen, isn't worth much. It is already fading out in milky waves.
-the Kara Sea, notably NE of Novaya Zemlya, isn't much better. Lots of small floes in a patternless swath.
-the Chukchi looks very mobile, from Bering Strait up to and NW of Wrangel Island.

Could go on like that, but I'll wait for the next few days to see whether the race down has begun...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2014, 01:47:05 PM
A torn lead-system on 400 km from the Pole looks like it will provide massive difficulties for Expedition Hope within a few days.

As luck would have it I took the liberty of wishing Expedition Hope (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,827) "bon voyage" from all at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum earlier this morning:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/455281362522865664 (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/statuses/455281362522865664)

Quote
Other remarkable impressions:
-the Beaufort ice looks pretty broken and shows a mosaic of very small to 400 km2 floes within a pattern of greyish leads. I guess the whiter floes are what HYCOM suggests MYI 2-3 m thick.

I simultaneously launched the Great White Con shiny new Arctic sea ice resource pages, concentrating on the Beaufort Sea initially:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/new-arctic-sea-ice-resources/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/new-arctic-sea-ice-resources/)

If you'd be happy to share some of the results of your CAD work we'd be more than happy to add that to our list of interesting and useful information about Arctic sea ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2014, 03:08:23 PM
The large stress lead along the Siberian fastice is the most pronounced feature. But there's also a matrix of open cracks on the line East Sib Sea-Beaufort Sea.

The (somewhat cloudy) view from Terra (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-13&map=-1687470.338669,1504040.830665,-868270.338669,1880360.830665) today:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 13, 2014, 06:30:08 PM
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/ (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/)
- page "Environmental Observatory yet there is no current data. Still the old photos
- why some photos are "incomplete", cut off?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 13, 2014, 07:19:51 PM
- why some photos are "incomplete", cut off?

I presume Iridium communications problems, but I don't know for sure. Webcam 1 images are available at my earlier link (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/), and the noise is gradually reducing:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140413100512.jpg&hash=abeee26e7931a3cf8ab9647e4462e702)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 13, 2014, 09:25:50 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fproducts%2Fprecip%2FCWlink%2Fdaily_ao_index%2Fao.sprd2.gif&hash=893610134f5ea33e74ae897b859fcc59)

2014 - the year of AO positive. If this will be the summer 2014, the ice cap is reduced to 2-3 mln km2
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 14, 2014, 07:23:52 AM
absolutely terrible pattern.

Expect SIE to continue to drop steadily.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4IhHL6Z.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F4IhHL6Z.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=71afb74af57b0be2aa1711b106c5cc68)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2014, 09:18:55 AM
The "mists" are gradually clearing at the North Pole:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140413220644.jpg&hash=5b45ac242c18fbba704194298417274d)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2014, 10:17:03 AM
Some "cracks" in the Laptev Sea (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-14&map=9760,1643200,363808,1818048) look to be wide open again this morning:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 14, 2014, 10:51:16 AM
The crack in the ESS seems to have reached a max: in the East (Wrangel Isl.) it widened and in the west (New Siberian Islands) it is freezing over. At least that is how the passive microwave sensors of the AMSR2 see it.

(click the picture for an animation)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 14, 2014, 03:15:10 PM
Quote
P.S. _If_ "precise" is not any precise for real, then also, "imprecise" is not any imprecise: inversion is a both-way symmetric operation all around the math and logic, isn't it. Therefore, when you said ""precise" is an imprecise term"", - you made a nil statement.

Sorry FT, I couldn't let this one go.

You are implying that because A is not equal to B then B is not equal to B. It's not an inversion, it's a sub-set. Be careful how you extrapolate logical statements.
It is ok, but, i couldn't let THIS one go too - so i am also sorry to make yet one more post without graphs and Arctic 2014 melt info in this topic. I am sorry to everyone here.

But i hope may be it'll provide a minute of relief and may be a smile to few people here, too. BEcause this post is kinda silly in a way... Silly enough to be funny may be. %)

Clarify what you designate as A and B. From what i can guess, you meant that B = "imprecise". Yes, indeed, i said that B is not equal to B - but then and ONLY then if, quote, ""precise" is not any precise for real". This condition does NOT involve any "B" - it does not contain the word "imprecise". Rather, it contains the word "precise", which, i guess, you designate as "A".

I.e., in your terms, i implied this: "because A is not equal to A then B is not equal to B". Note that this differs from your quote above.

And i still stand by it, because we know that "B = !A" (using "!" in this sense: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negation#Notation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negation#Notation) ), because prefix "im" means "not" in this case (according to http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/imprecise (http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/imprecise) ).

So, if we replace "B" with "!A", then my original statement changes to this: "because A is not equal to A then !A is not equal to !A",

which obviously is correct.

To remind, the whole gig is about "precise is an imprecise term" phraze. In your terms, this would be something like "A equals B". Again, we also know that "B = !A". Therefore, the phraze turns into "A equals !A", or in normal words, "A is not A". Which is, again, a nil saying, - the only thing which actually fits "A equals !A" is the mighty 0 (number and concept).  :)

But _if_ we for a moment allow it - i.e. if we agree that "precise" is an imprecise term, - then this very act of agreement has few consequences, one of which - is the loss of any meaning of "imprecise" term. Ergo, label "imprecise!" stop to mean anything, thus the original phraze is self-nulifying on more than one level. Which is funny to me. %)

However, i plead guilty in using wrong english term - "inversion". I had to say "negation", because it is what was meant, mathematically. This error has to do with my native language in which the term for negation has other meanings similar to english word "inversion". Please accept my apologies for this - but for this only! :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: SATire on April 14, 2014, 03:35:54 PM
 ;D I am so in love with Russian precision and logic! It takes quite an amount of Wodka to overcome that and to get emotional :o.
(Sorry for being so off-topic, too)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 14, 2014, 03:44:23 PM
If it's "wodka", then it's not russian - it's polish. Please refer to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodka (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodka) . Either thing definitely helps to get not too emotional from what i see on those graphs people are posting here, by the way.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 14, 2014, 04:48:12 PM
But, but, but ....


So, if we replace "B" with "!A", then my original statement changes to this: "because A is not equal to A then !A is not equal to !A",

which obviously is correct.

No that doesn't necessarily follow. Precise might be precise in 10% of cases and in 90% of cases be not quite precise but close enough not to matter.

But one persons 'close enough not to matter' may not be the same as someone else's 'close enough not to matter'. So this can lead to the statement that precise is not precise.

Note also there is in addition:
-imprecise

But there is also
-indeterminable

Because of the indeterminable class, not precise is not equal to imprecise

but I am still not sure how I should parse  "!A is not equal to !A" as obviously correct.

 ;) ??? :o :P :-\ ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 14, 2014, 08:42:01 PM
NPEO webcam #2 (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE) has started transmissions from the ice, but doesn't seem to be precisely positioned at its ultimate destination as yet:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM2%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam2_20140414102722.jpg&hash=1158b70e8491eaf6c7ecc6a6420c8019)

Likewise for camera 3 (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM3/ARCHIVE):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM3%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam3_20140414102928.jpg&hash=95cedce4f31f404fb4cd898208e11c1b)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 14, 2014, 10:05:07 PM
The GFS and Euro are showing a massive vortex/dipole anomaly.

The Euro has a 958mb SLP on the Atlantic side in 4 days.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 15, 2014, 12:21:24 AM
The GFS and Euro are showing a massive vortex/dipole anomaly.

The Euro has a 958mb SLP on the Atlantic side in 4 days.

Late April was also quite toasty last year up there, and the PIOMAS volume responded by falling very quickly, but then in May, the pattern changed and a very cold, cloudy summer (by recent standards anyway) happened, with PIOMAS volume failing to drop like in 2010-2012.

I don't think we're quite at the point where it makes or break a dramatic melt season. That's a bit later around June 1 when serious snow melt begins in the Arctic Ocean, at least in warmer years.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 15, 2014, 12:58:22 AM
Following closely in the footsteps of NPEO webcam 1, ice mass balance buoy 2014E has now started sending back data from near the North Pole:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/north-pole-webcam-begins-transmissions/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2014/04/north-pole-webcam-begins-transmissions/)

Pos: 89.45 N, 155.11 E
Air Temp: -21.65 C
Air Pres: 984.67 mb
Snow Depth: 20 cm
Ice Thickness: 170 cm

Bernice Notenboom, leader of Expedition Hope (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,827), illustrates the effect of such temperatures on the human body:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 15, 2014, 01:05:52 AM
The Euro has a 958mb SLP on the Atlantic side in 4 days.

Eric Philips' blog (http://en.expedition-hope.org/blog/calm-after-the-storm/) today:

Quote
The storm passed in the night and we woke to a remnant wind that steadily dropped off throughout the day. It’s now clear and still and warm, around -15C judging by the softness of my butter during the last break. The drift is now slightly in our favour but still has a stiff easterly in it. We made 3 degrees west again but are still in the 50′s, need to be in the mid-70′s. Covered a respectable 17km.

The surface today was reminiscent of the Antarctic plateau. The storm had buffed the surface to a shiny firm veneer and we saw almost no pressure. This entire area is made up of first-year ice. Virtually no leads since we left the North Pole.

His watch yesterday (http://en.expedition-hope.org/blog/how-low-can-you-go/):
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 15, 2014, 08:45:10 AM
Is the right side of this picture of any practical importance for incoming melt season, and if yes - what are possible effects?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-J88Qe0wBAgk%2FU0kXqalPMzI%2FAAAAAAAANHc%2F9JOLGslIKlw%2Fs1600%2FApril-5-10.png&hash=ca63a49efde82a69ad993488ba93d0ff)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DoomInTheUK on April 15, 2014, 12:20:54 PM
Sorry folks, but I promise this is my last post on the subject......

FT,

Precision is taken as measurement that must come with bounds of accuracy. By definition having bounds of accuracy makes any measurement imprecise. Try drawing a Ven diagram of it. Precision must be a fully enclosed subset of Imprescision.

You could say that there's no such thing as precise, just levels of acceptable accuracy.

P.S !A certainly does equal !A.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on April 15, 2014, 01:48:57 PM
If you define 'precise' as having bounds of accuracy, then imprecise would be any measurement without bounds of accuracy.  The two sets would not intersect; they'd be completely apart on a Venn diagram.

Precision is determined by the known repeatability/reproduciblity of a measurement.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 15, 2014, 04:53:27 PM
Is the right side of this picture of any practical importance for incoming melt season, and if yes - what are possible effects?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-J88Qe0wBAgk%2FU0kXqalPMzI%2FAAAAAAAANHc%2F9JOLGslIKlw%2Fs1600%2FApril-5-10.png&hash=ca63a49efde82a69ad993488ba93d0ff)

That increase at 30,000 ft and above is staggering  - approx 2010 to 2180 is nearly an 8.5% increase.

Surface flasks for Alert are under 1930ppb this year compared to around 1900 last year probably less than a 1.5% increase and the 8000ft readings look similar.

AIUI, absolute water vapour is low so although this makes the methane more important, the water vapour window is also wider. With effects working in opposite directions, I think it needs someone more proficient than me at assessing the effect.

We do have nearly 6 years worth of methane gain at altitudes above 30,000 ft but the gain is much less at lower altitudes so that waters it down a bit. Then that is only 1 GHG, CO2 levels are 200 times higher even if effect of methane is rather larger per molecule so that waters down the effect quite a bit more. I also believe a lot of the increased melting in recent years is down to the lower volume at the start of the season causing increase in open water formation efficiency  driving albedo feedback so I don't think GHG level change from one year to the next is a huge player. If GHG levels were a dominant effect then I think the changes would have been more linear.

So for the melt season, I think there are enough reasons not to get too carried away with it. I am more concerned about potential impact on next winters maximum volume though. Again this wouldn't be the only cause, ocean upward heat flux and zonal vs meridonal wind patterns are likely to also be important but I am less sure of the relative importance. (Heck, I am guessing enough as it is.)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 15, 2014, 05:51:57 PM
A few questions: where do I find daily data about the level of methane in the atmosphere?

And what I find most interesting right now in the Arctic is the apparent weakening of ice concentration in the Laptev sea where the ice thickness is only about 50 cm.. Given the powerful cyclone that is expected to hit this area I wouldn't be too surprised if we are going to see an early polynya...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 15, 2014, 06:13:06 PM
A few questions: where do I find daily data about the level of methane in the atmosphere?

This allow various methane timeseries and other GHG at various different stations:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/ (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/iadv/)
It appears Alert only does weekly methane readings. Barrow does a little more frequently.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 15, 2014, 06:44:23 PM
The following list are the earliest dates when SIE due to JAXA have been less than:

13 mn km2: April 24
12 mn km2: May 13
11 mn km2: June 3
10 mn km2: June 17
 9 mn km2: July 1
 8 mn km2: July 10
 7 mn km2: July 19
 6 mn km2: August 3
 5 mn km2: August 10
 4 mn km2: August 23

May be interesting for this melt season to see how we are doing:) Don't know if these numbers fit best here or in the thread "2014 sea ice area and extent"...

Crandles: thank you for that info!:)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 16, 2014, 12:22:47 AM
http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/taniec-smierci-na-lodzie.html (http://arcticicesea.blogspot.com/2014/04/taniec-smierci-na-lodzie.html)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F-AdggH2j0SMI%2FU00HtJpncQI%2FAAAAAAAADug%2FLkGDlT_d1xg%2Fs1600%2FArctic-death-dance.gif&hash=33c013903666bd41f1f8e1cbd5d4758f)
Dipole will accelerate this process.
13,0 mln km2 - April 21
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: davidsanger on April 16, 2014, 01:59:27 AM
Here's the 2014 Jaxa extent vs. high and low extent for each day:

interactive version (http://bit.ly/1kvl6B0)

 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 16, 2014, 08:45:28 AM
Sorry folks, but I promise this is my last post on the subject......

FT,

Precision is taken as measurement that must come with bounds of accuracy. By definition having bounds of accuracy makes any measurement imprecise. Try drawing a Ven diagram of it. Precision must be a fully enclosed subset of Imprescision.

You could say that there's no such thing as precise, just levels of acceptable accuracy.

P.S !A certainly does equal !A.
All true. But - another true. "Analog" one. While i was presenting "boolean", "black and white" truth.

!A = !A usually, yes. Until someone says with certainty that A does not equal A, then with equal certainy he should also state that !A does not equal !A - too. Amazing thing is, many don't. :D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 17, 2014, 05:17:02 AM
Jaxa had another century drop
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Stephen on April 17, 2014, 06:12:59 AM
......
blah...blah...blah
Attention, F Tinoli and DoomInTheUK, I've created a thread just for you.
It's called Russian Logic and it's in Off-Topic/The Rest
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,832.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,832.0.html) Have Fun   ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 17, 2014, 10:21:01 AM
Have Fun   ;D

I have done! Thanks for the heads up. Meanwhile NPEO webcam #1 (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM1/ARCHIVE/) has uploaded a reasonably clear picture at long last:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140417062857.jpg&hash=3f60a6f2b1134ab2c2019d9cbe868ada)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 17, 2014, 04:09:16 PM
I can see it was made 06:29:11 . Is the sun still below horizon on this pic? If yes, can you please give a pic on which sun is well above horizon (if or when such a picture would be available)? Thanks, and another thanks - forward. :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 17, 2014, 05:50:37 PM
I can see it was made 06:29:11 . Is the sun still below horizon on this pic? If yes, can you please give a pic on which sun is well above horizon (if or when such a picture would be available)? Thanks, and another thanks - forward. :)

No, the sun is up (Look closely at the surface irregularities near the camera; they are casting shadows.)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 17, 2014, 07:02:04 PM
Can you please give a pic on which sun is well above horizon?

Feel free to click my link through to the archive, then select the image that fits your use case best! How about this one?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140417122058.jpg&hash=561e45d95e1515880b663f49dd2d8277)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2014, 08:41:19 AM
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE GREENLAND RIDGE.

OH MY RUN FOR YOUR LIVES.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwI3Os1a.gif&hash=7b819ac13375616e6df16fde50d9b3dd)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 18, 2014, 09:34:10 AM
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE GREENLAND RIDGE.

OH MY RUN FOR YOUR LIVES.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwI3Os1a.gif&hash=7b819ac13375616e6df16fde50d9b3dd)

Well, isn't that just ducky. Elevator going down, anyone?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 18, 2014, 10:02:52 AM
These are April 4th global ssta one year ago and now.

Huge difference.  Global ssta a year ago was .21C now they are .31C.  .30C+ used to be reserved only for NINOs now it has been crushed last summer for 8 consecutive weeks.

And the last two weeks have been slightly above .30C.

For it to be that high this time of year without a nino is unprecedented.

And we are just getting started.

Global temps are going to be crushed this year.  wonder what effect if any on the ice.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIyaE7YD.gif&hash=ae54a5ee0277fcb77bb21e0f5523b6e4)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 18, 2014, 11:24:41 AM
The view from NPEO webcam 1 is changing:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140418062429.jpg&hash=4ea13050ab60497177e8fa4e8355f191)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 18, 2014, 11:32:39 AM
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE GREENLAND RIDGE.

Not to mention the current "Arctic cyclone". Here's the Earth version (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/04/18/0600Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-1.36,87.99,1105) for 06:00 UTC this morning:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 18, 2014, 06:19:39 PM
A vaguely sensible image from NPEO Webcam #2 (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/WEBCAM2/ARCHIVE/). This is the "French buoy" referred to in NPEO 2014 Report #14 (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/research/npeo-2014-field-reports/):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM2%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam2_20140418120154.jpg&hash=4cf4f10c5c453d0defeb9e9b123300ae)

Quote
Tuesday, April 15 Barneo – Iridium call from Jamie Morison
The French team returned to Longyearbyen having deployed their buoy monitored by Webcam#2.  They took Webcam#3 with them, hoping to resolve a focus problem and send it back out to Barneo.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 18, 2014, 07:53:58 PM
The persistence of the dipole anomaly and really been impressive over the last month.

The SLP difference between the easern and western Arctic is massive, driving strong winds across the Arctic toward the Atlantic sector, helping to bolster extent in this region.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJ8m5sko.gif&hash=94f9e3f4f7a53df7b6e842c3b0b8a871)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fo8cuck2.gif&hash=11b5bcb93eea4770d688aebcda8a9cd4)

At this time of year, the dipole generally reduces extent losses due to ice export and refreeze.
As we move into May, the mid-latitudes will gather a lot of heat, which will start to get pumped into the Bering strait region, causing strong melting there. Meanwhile, the air over the Arctic warms to the point that the dipole driven export cannot be replaced with fresh, thin ice cover and the air blowing over the Greenland/Barents region becomes milder and less likely to produce any fresh ice amongst the export.

As things stand, the ECM continues to support a dominant dipole pattern.

2 days out
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJr1UoAX.png&hash=050afd9b69fc1b95ff4cd269b96d2736)

5 days out
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FawvY7LR.png&hash=b0adffcf590dda36f4b373dfd3921bc0)

Even the 8-10 day mean height comparison charts suggest a continuation, with the ECM bringing in some very mild air over the Bering strait and Okhotsk regions (at that timeframe, model accuracy isn't great though).

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F1FF7FMd.gif&hash=bc48f2b2c54b5afe053afcf84ce5b289)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FbkdZG6u.png&hash=8c1152ad15a3c018dd7d8840ca7c9a12)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 18, 2014, 08:11:38 PM
A comparison of the April SLP anomaly from 2007, and April so far this year.

2007
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRRvcdEB.gif&hash=05befb2bea8cc68ede10858b01452fa7)


2014
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCdfH5oF.gif&hash=bdfceeb4f2a2a52d15404753a20c3d62)

With the forecast going for that strong low over the Barents/Kara/Central Arctic region, we could end up with a very similar Arctic pattern to 2007.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on April 18, 2014, 10:37:05 PM
And I thought the 'Perfect melt storm' synoptic was at least 3 years away BFTV! (LOL) It would not be a good year if we did see a return of the 07' synoptic whilst a Nino formed in the Pacific. Just how much heat would be being pumped into the atmosphere in sept/oct if we had another record melt and Nino conditions???
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 19, 2014, 04:50:45 PM
The area covered by multi-year ice

http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/type/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201404181200_pal.jpg (http://saf.met.no/p/ice/nh/type/imgs/OSI_HL_SAF_201404181200_pal.jpg)

has an outline which has now become discernible and visible on

http://myocean.met.no/ARC-MFC/images/osisaf_myocean_arc_sst_ice_yesterday.png (http://myocean.met.no/ARC-MFC/images/osisaf_myocean_arc_sst_ice_yesterday.png)

and, if one looks closely, even on the CT concentration map

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=15&fy=2014&sm=04&sd=15&sy=2014 (http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=15&fy=2014&sm=04&sd=15&sy=2014)




This appears to be truly unprecedented for mid-April in all the previous years' CT maps. Is it just me or is there something truly frightening about this situation???
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 19, 2014, 10:03:23 PM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on April 19, 2014, 10:49:30 PM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.

Do you have a link to images or animated forecast?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 19, 2014, 11:13:10 PM
Do you have a link to images or animated forecast?

This is where I go these days:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=12&mode=0&carte=1 (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=12&mode=0&carte=1)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on April 19, 2014, 11:32:29 PM
Do you have a link to images or animated forecast?

This is where I go these days:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=12&mode=0&carte=1 (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=12&mode=0&carte=1)

Much Appreciated.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 20, 2014, 01:57:19 AM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.

Holy cow, that is insane!!! At first I thought you were exaggerating, but I looked at the models and my jaw nearly dropped to the point of falling off my face.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Robert Marston on April 20, 2014, 02:30:37 AM
Been watching that Greenland high and dipole in the models over the past few days. A rather exceptional pattern to say the least. Any good prognostications for direct impacts?

GFS surface shows near freezing temps circling the Arctic Ocean. We get a big temperature spike up to around 30-40+ F in some sections of Greenland.

Pattern seems to fade out pretty fast.

Thoughts?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2014, 04:11:00 AM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.

Holy cow, that is insane!!! At first I thought you were exaggerating, but I looked at the models and my jaw nearly dropped to the point of falling off my face.
Link?  Explanation?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 20, 2014, 04:23:41 AM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.

Holy cow, that is insane!!! At first I thought you were exaggerating, but I looked at the models and my jaw nearly dropped to the point of falling off my face.
Link?  Explanation?
I can't see it. I suspect this is a sarcastic reaction to the overuse of Majuscule.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2014, 05:23:06 AM
The 12z Euro and GFS are brutal ashell.

HUGE -NAO.

HUGE HEMISPHERIC WIDE DIPOLE.

THIS WILL NOT ONLY SCREW THE ARCTIC IT WILL SCREW GIS.

Holy cow, that is insane!!! At first I thought you were exaggerating, but I looked at the models and my jaw nearly dropped to the point of falling off my face.
Link?  Explanation?
I can't see it. I suspect this is a sarcastic reaction to the overuse of Majuscule.
Well, at the moment, besides being aware there is a cyclone churning away in the ESS/CAB, I have no context.

If this is a serious posting, I'd love an explanation.  Normally Nightvid and Friv are pretty much on the level.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: From Lima(Peru) on April 20, 2014, 05:42:23 AM
Have you seen those maps on Cryosphere Today?

[GFS model output for the Arctic][http://globalweatherlogistics.com/seaiceforecasting/]

Please, tell me how to put links, I don't know how to do it!
Thank you in advance.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 20, 2014, 08:23:51 AM

1.  Massive MYI fram transport.  Nearly 100 percent MYI now.  This is forecast to be just awful into May.

2.  Southerly winds in the Beaufort pushing the ice off the shore/fast ice and causing a region of open water to form.  While also having mostly sunny conditions and solar insolation of 320-375W/M2 from now into early May.  This is quite strong.  That heat will go into the water which will be blown towards the ice that is being pushed away from the shore.  This helps melt the ice dramatically faster than without open water.

3.  It promotes a massive region of warm sunny skies with will kick the snow/ice albedo feedback into gear. 

4. The Russian ice is being pushed away from the shore.  so new ice has to replace the older FYI that is much thicker.  But it's to warm now for that ice to thicken up very fast this is a huge blow towards easy insitu melting and open water very fast into May. 

5.  There is a massive influx of warmth into the cryosphere while that warm air is stripped of it's heat the left over cold is the Kara region/Baffin/Atlantic side where it doesn't nothing to help the ice this summer.  The Pacific side ends up very warm.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFkszAD1.gif&hash=1bcc14fd70cb854a306626cbb14fa2dc)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9WsUCl1.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9WsUCl1.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=36afca1690e15cdd41f544370c2c8cfd)


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 20, 2014, 09:16:33 AM

1. ...

Thanks, Friv. I figured you to have some substance to your "yell", and I can see where your distress came from.

Fram export at full bore will be about 8-10K KM of ice a day, under ideal export conditions, which it seems we have.

I'm far more worried about the albedo changes, availability of insolation and what the dipole is doing to the existing ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Sonia on April 20, 2014, 10:16:24 AM
Latest demolition in the ESS,
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 20, 2014, 12:23:14 PM
Friv may be right; Chris Reynolds often described a ‘spring fall’ in volume and it may be about to happen again. I've checked ECMWF:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FECMWF1000Mbwind850Mb20042014240h_zpse24246e2.jpg&hash=9b7cf89c9214bff4aba10188ce056e59)

This pattern develops when the current severe Low fades, around next Thursday. The pic above is prognosed for Wednesday 30th. A long way out. Even so, it looks as though the direction is clear. As Wayne has suggested, there’s a strong potential over the Canadian Archipelago to support high pressure.

Analyzing the prognosis above, it looks as though the Bering Sea ice will quickly disappear. The already breaking ice in the Chukchi may deteriorate rapidly. The wind pattern doesn’t feed right into Fram, but will continue pushing ice into the Barentsz Sea, where it melts. Fram export continues, probably mainly through sea currents. Together, these processes promote quite severe volume loss.

Then, there’s the albedo side. I don’t know if there will be more than usual sunshine. The Lows on the Sib side are probably cloudy. If Friv is right, it looks like most sunshine will be over the Beaufort Sea. When the stress lead along the fast ice opens up swiftly, it could make a large difference with the melt process last year.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 20, 2014, 12:53:18 PM
The EURO IS EVEN CRAZIER HOLY CRAP.

LOOK AT DAY 10.




(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FqDSWICt.gif&hash=0250c68705dadb6f98e0403892808f2f)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 20, 2014, 01:07:11 PM
Remember folks, that while the ECM is the best in the 5-7 day range, anything beyond 5 days needs to be taken with a pinch of salt, and any individual model runs beyond 7 days shouldn't be taken seriously at all, as those scenarios will chop and change several times per day.

Beyond 7 days, looking at the upper level pattern and the trends and comparisons between different models can give an idea of how things may turn out.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FMjsg0ZAl.jpg&hash=fbfc93fe8a7bb8b9dbbefc43d05aab0f)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 20, 2014, 04:21:16 PM
Laptev seeing massive ice movement.  This is not good at all.  That new ice isn't going to be able to get very thick.

Like by the time we are 10-14 days into this dipole.  There will be a dramatically large area of brand new ice that formed during this period.

All of that ice will be very thin 10-30 meters or so if that because temps are pretty warm and solr insolation is at 325w/m2.

If this pattern is dominant thru the end of June.

2014 would already be well below every other year.

Another 2007 and all metrics would demolish records.

The North Atantic is also going to get very warm.




(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FHACc7dh.gif&hash=754444a688a95d40f97b432517485118)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 21, 2014, 10:01:28 AM
Here's how the Laptev Sea looks this morning, courtesy of Aqua/NASA Worldview (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-21&map=-70944,1494080,637152,1832512):

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 21, 2014, 10:14:34 AM
Here's how the Laptev Sea looks this morning, courtesy of...

That's pretty amazing.  What I'm most impressed by isn't the Polyna, but the extraordinarily poor condition of the ice north of it (bottom half of the image, to avoid confusion)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on April 21, 2014, 12:04:48 PM
Jentlemen,

few posts above, it was mentioned that significant (to say the least) amounts of sunlight will be absorbed by dark open waters where usually there is ice (by this time of the year). This, though, is not all.

In everyday terms, one part ice at 0 °C will cool almost exactly 4 parts water at 20 °C to 0 °C. (some numbers about it - see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_fusion#Applications (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_of_fusion#Applications) ).

The opposite is also correct: heating 4 parts of water from 0 to 20 °C - would be prevented, if there was 1 part of ice in that water at the start.

Which, regarding mentioned above regions, is not the case anymore: those regions on photos above - open water have no surface ice, and it seems quite like a glass with dark bottom and without ice cubes, and then that glass is put into the sun. I mean, this is about much faster local temperature rise, since there are no "ice cubes" (in those locations) to halt the temperature rise (driven by sunlight).

This will definitely alter athmospheric events in Arctic significantly (short-term), among other things. I'd expect an increase of number but reduction in average size of athmospheric events in Arctic, as such conditions (more "glasses without ice cubes") develop significantly during last decade. I wonder if such a trend could already be noticed during last ~10 years. Myself, i don't have reliable relevant data to answer this.

near-surface warm water currents are obviously another thing. Good oprtion of that heat which "was expected to melt ice _here_, but since there was no ice _here_ this year - this heat was spent to warm up water _here_ instead" - good oprtion of this heat will be transferred by water currents to nearby location and it'll "meet" some ice some time later, and will melt part of it. Thing is, _that_ ice _there_ - has its own melting forces ("traditional" ones), so it'll melt faster - whole thing feeds on itself, the less ice is there, the more warm water "attacks" it from more and more directions, more and more often. Important thing is, this will get extra heat into cloudy places and effect things there - unlike albedo positive feedback, which is very dependant on (absense of) the cloud cover.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: lanevn on April 22, 2014, 08:59:46 AM
Why hPa forecasts so popular here? Do not say that because it is easier to speculate with them, than with temperature forecasts  :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 22, 2014, 07:02:07 PM
Why hPa forecasts so popular here? Do not say that because it is easier to speculate with them, than with temperature forecasts  :)

I will speculate, at the risk of being corrected.

hPa current conditions and forecasts show us the current pressure gradients across geography. From that we can derive the forces currently shifting masses of air (and storms) and come to some reasonable (but decreasingly reliable) conclusions as to what that movement and energy will do at the surface.  It is much more likely to provide insight into weather conditions in the near future than temperature maps.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 23, 2014, 03:53:14 AM
Perfect Wind fields and the most ideal melt conditions coalease extremely well.

If you have one then you have the other as well.

However the arctic can be really warm because of a massive HP over the Laptev, Kara, Barents but with a SLP region over GIS/CAA it will have goods winds for the ice while bad temps for the Atlantic side.

Models are showing a major arctic dipole anomaly strengthening(We have been in a SLP based arctic dipole anomaly for a while.

SLP based means the SLP was the wind driving force with closer to normal HP.

Now the SLP is weaker but still a broad deep region of low pressures.

While a huge HP forms over the GIS/CANADA SIDE.  This not only warms the arctic up dramatically it completely displaces any PV anomaly over the pole where it can get strong and cold. 

Warm winds from the PACIFIC and NA are brutal as the North ATLANTIC that is already warm/Russia is the cold exhaust.

Well in our warming world the air goes in warmer than it comes out equivalently cold.

In the end we are in a  :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D :D PATTERN.

That is sarcastic for terrible.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWEkhtgZ.gif&hash=c6a8f2a18ca37520f8715d750b708174)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 23, 2014, 07:22:17 AM
Why hPa forecasts so popular here? Do not say that because it is easier to speculate with them, than with temperature forecasts  :)

I will speculate, at the risk of being corrected.

hPa current conditions and forecasts show us the current pressure gradients across geography. From that we can derive the forces currently shifting masses of air (and storms) and come to some reasonable (but decreasingly reliable) conclusions as to what that movement and energy will do at the surface.  It is much more likely to provide insight into weather conditions in the near future than temperature maps.

Additionally, that's the level satellites get direct measurements over the most of the world as on this level measurents are obscured only by the highest mountain chains. It looks like 5500m (3,42 miles) is cited as being the average height at 500HPa. (mod: types, grammatical errors, I have wooden eyes that early in the morning it seems)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: lanevn on April 23, 2014, 07:31:00 AM
It is much more likely to provide insight into weather conditions in the near future than temperature maps.

It is so, but I hope that meteorologists in their temperature forecast already include that and very many other factors and that seeking of "torches" on 850, 500, 10, 0.0001 hpa maps when there is no of them on temperature map is like skeptic's rapid recovery after each snowfall.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 23, 2014, 09:46:22 AM
A clear view of the North Pole yesterday, including a clear view of the recent "cracks". More at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Pole (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Pole)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 23, 2014, 10:25:17 AM
Thanks, Jim.
The ice is shaping up in a way that reminds of 'mesh-patterns' I've usually described early June in '11-'13.
The first visible lead forming near the Pole is at about 3 km distance. The big ones, up to 900 m wide, begin at about 30 km in the dir of Ellesmere. The Pole is actually on a initial slab of about 340 km2. When the weather patterns persist, the situation could be comparable to the shattering we saw last year as early as June.
In the laptev direction, the grinding into small floes is even more advanced. The mean surface of the big ones lies around 75 km2, surrounded by 5-10 km broad, rubble filled leads.

I know it is of small value to prognose right now. However, if last season showed the extended range of what's possible now through weather, this season might produce the counterpart!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 23, 2014, 10:38:30 AM
Here's the enhanced representation I made on CAD after Jim bookmarked the good view on MODIS yesterday:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FPole22042014small_zps7d516b40.jpg&hash=87219e8dfe8e74fcc0f034af39632c7f)

A 100x100 km swath centered on the pole. I made a polyline on the establishing 'Pole-floe'.

To enhance the features, clearness/contrast/midtones were set at -10/+15/-60.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 23, 2014, 03:17:41 PM
Here's the enhanced representation I made on CAD after Jim bookmarked the good view on MODIS yesterday:

Thanks very much for that Werther. I've made a copy available at the link below. I hope that's OK with you?

Here's another image from yesterday. Sea ice breaking up off Barrow. More at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Chukchi (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Chukchi)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 23, 2014, 07:21:43 PM
Here's the enhanced representation I made on CAD after Jim bookmarked the good view on MODIS yesterday:

Thanks very much for that Werther. I've made a copy available at the link below. I hope that's OK with you?

Here's another image from yesterday. Sea ice breaking up off Barrow...

Context question(s):  what sort of timeframe anomalies are we seeing with these fracturing events?   Do they suggest a change in system state that makes comparisons to previous events irrelevant?  Is this now a completely different pattern of behavior?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 23, 2014, 10:17:46 PM
JDA, hi,
I've filed lots of 'relevant' MODIS tiles, but usually later in the season. So, further than 'this was quite a Low' I'm probably not reliable when I claim anything special for this year based on the MODIS pics of late. I have a copy of the N Greenland tile 11042012. It looks rotten near the Pole like it does now. That's as good as I can compare... '12 was a disaster year, so???
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on April 23, 2014, 10:33:00 PM
Here's another image from yesterday. Sea ice breaking up off Barrow. More at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Chukchi (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Chukchi)

Too bad they're not doing the Barrow Break-up stuff anymore, although in this case it seems there's still a sliver of fast ice clinging to the coast.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 24, 2014, 02:30:06 AM
JDA, hi,
I've filed lots of 'relevant' MODIS tiles, but usually later in the season. So, further than 'this was quite a Low' I'm probably not reliable when I claim anything special for this year based on the MODIS pics of late. I have a copy of the N Greenland tile 11042012. It looks rotten near the Pole like it does now. That's as good as I can compare... '12 was a disaster year, so???

Thanks, werther.

My questions are more to provoke contemplation than interrogation; our historic data on this is anecdotal and limited, for certain. 

The two key which I think bear special focus are just these two:

Are we now seeing (rather than predicting) a substantive system change in the cyclical behavior of Arctic climate?

Is it sufficiently different from previous behavior that comparisons with previous states may no longer correlate correctly, and new events may be arising as a result of mostly different causative mechanisms?

For example, it has been argued (but not here) that 2013 represented a natural return to "typical" arctic behavior,  driven by the same generalized forces in climate that have underlain it's behavior since close study began.  That would infer recent low years we outliers rather than trend.  (You should be able to see where I'm going with this...).

However, if we have a distinct change in system limits and forces being applied, then that would infer 2013 is the outlier (which is what I think, but think we should test, somehow...).  What might we measure to make such a determination? Unfortunately, most of what we see are effects, rather than causual.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 24, 2014, 02:48:16 AM
JDA, hi,
I've filed lots of 'relevant' MODIS tiles, but usually later in the season. So, further than 'this was quite a Low' I'm probably not reliable when I claim anything special for this year based on the MODIS pics of late. I have a copy of the N Greenland tile 11042012. It looks rotten near the Pole like it does now. That's as good as I can compare... '12 was a disaster year, so???

Thanks, werther.

My questions are more to provoke contemplation than interrogation; our historic data on this is anecdotal and limited, for certain. 

The two key which I think bear special focus are just these two:

Are we now seeing (rather than predicting) a substantive system change in the cyclical behavior of Arctic climate?

Is it sufficiently different from previous behavior that comparisons with previous states may no longer correlate correctly, and new events may be arising as a result of mostly different causative mechanisms?

For example, it has been argued (but not here) that 2013 represented a natural return to "typical" arctic behavior,  driven by the same generalized forces in climate that have underlain it's behavior since close study began.  That would infer recent low years we outliers rather than trend.  (You should be able to see where I'm going with this...).

However, if we have a distinct change in system limits and forces being applied, then that would infer 2013 is the outlier (which is what I think, but think we should test, somehow...).  What might we measure to make such a determination? Unfortunately, most of what we see are effects, rather than causual.

Well, realize that 2013 had the least melting-favoring atmospheric circulation in the satellite record, possibly with the exception of 1996. Very low SLP patterns in the crucial early melting season and DMI polar temp. was below average from Mid-May to late August continuously, a first.

The cloudiness and cyclones in May and June were truly extraordinarily persistent. As a result, surface melt was delayed until the second week of July in most of the Arctic Ocean apart from the peripheral seas. Yet the minimum extent was still FAR below anything pre-2005. Look at the pre-2005 minima, and imagine 2005 being at 2013's level. It would be an amazing crash in extent in a single year if it happened then. Yet now, it seems to be the most ice Mother Nature can retain given a very cold and overcast summer.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 24, 2014, 08:14:51 AM
One week early in the melting season saw some large decreases followed by a rebound.
The net result is according to Jaxa (AMSR-E L3 data used) about -320k in sea ice extent and -410k in area.
The day to day differences with 2013 are similar ( -260k and -410k) so 2014 is almost one week ahead.

Decreases took mainly place in the following peripheral regions: Bering and Okhotsk on the Pacific side and StLawrence and Barents to the Atlantic.

Details:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140422-20140415 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    4.4                     0.0                    -5.7
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -3.6                  -123.0                    -6.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                   10.8                   -36.2                    -2.0
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                    4.1                     1.4                     1.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                  -68.6                   -93.1                  -316.6

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140422-20140415 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    6.4                   -20.6                   -29.8
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                  -19.5                  -147.8                   -10.1
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -22.6                   -18.1                    -6.5
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   13.6                     0.8                    -5.5
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                  -77.4                   -70.1                  -407.1


And a difference map is attached.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 24, 2014, 08:53:15 AM
Thanks, Wipneus.

Your graph shows 15-22 April, roughly the lifespan of that strong low in the Arctic. Its effect on SIE/SIA show mainly in the Barentsz Sea. The wrenching it did has no direct influence yet in the CAB.
I was surprised this morning watching MODIS; Bennett Island N of the New Sib Islands is creating interesting orogenetic clouds to it's NW. It co-incides with a not very usual Jetstream branch entering the Arctic from the Kolyma region.
The Jet branch accompanies a ridge that fuels a small heat-wave over the Amur river basin and brings spring and snow melt to the boards of the Arctic Ocean.
It fits with a strong dipole. It lasts into next week and fills the lower troposphere over the Arctic with relatively warm air. Leaving just a layer of cold above the ice.
I guess that's exactly why Bennett Island creates such beautiful clouds in this flow. The wide stress lead along the Siberian fast ice moistens the flow from below. When it's pushed up over Bennett, the moisture condenses, forming 3 km high rippling clouds.

What does this mean for the ice? I don't expect massive losses through this dipole for the next few days. But watch out when the pattern eclipses after next monday. Next week may bring large losses in the Barentsz/Kara sector.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 24, 2014, 09:35:23 AM
Too bad they're not doing the Barrow Break-up stuff anymore, although in this case it seems there's still a sliver of fast ice clinging to the coast.

Yes - The official "Barrow Break-up" takes place when the fast ice goes. The webcam (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam) and radar (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar) confirm that hasn't happened yet:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 24, 2014, 10:59:13 AM
The Beaufort Sea is now falling apart at the seams too:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Beaufort (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Beaufort)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 24, 2014, 01:28:43 PM
A new interactive 3D globe for displaying jet stream, 850hPa temperatures, 500hPa heights and SLP forecast animations is now on the meteociel website. Hopefully they'll add more options to it in the near future.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on April 24, 2014, 04:16:47 PM
The following link leads to an article about how the new altimeter, AltiKa, onboard Saral (CNES/ISRO) is documenting ice melting in the Kara Sea:

http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/news/idm/2014/apr-2014-melting-in-the-kara-sea.html (http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/news/idm/2014/apr-2014-melting-in-the-kara-sea.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 24, 2014, 05:56:17 PM
Too bad they're not doing the Barrow Break-up stuff anymore, although in this case it seems there's still a sliver of fast ice clinging to the coast.

Yes - The official "Barrow Break-up" takes place when the fast ice goes. The webcam (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam) and radar (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar) confirm that hasn't happened yet:

"Water sky blink" is visible on the Barrow sea ice webcam now!!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Rubikscube on April 24, 2014, 10:40:55 PM
This is what happens when Cryosphere Today meets Photoshop in order to show the difference in snow cover between April 21st 2013 and 2014.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi60.tinypic.com%2F2rrmcmx.jpg&hash=5d6a29a5be7fe6b996c1bfe18057cc94)

Bright red indicates partial reduction of snow cover, while darker red indicates a reduction from full snow cover to no snow cover, the blue colors are the opposite.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on April 24, 2014, 10:50:33 PM
Very nice, RC! Thanks!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Comradez on April 24, 2014, 11:28:38 PM
It looks like the northern hemisphere snowcover is about to get murdered next week:

Twisterdata:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi42.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fe326%2FZeiter%2Fsnow-5-1-14_zpsa4dda684.png&hash=24b5ef7fd17ab5f8bf1a0e1ebf80fc46) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/Zeiter/media/snow-5-1-14_zpsa4dda684.png.html)

CCI Reanalyzer:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi42.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fe326%2FZeiter%2Fsnow-5-1-14-cci_zps083b5b9f.png&hash=53f0f768e9e5670cf753860b00f10738) (http://s42.photobucket.com/user/Zeiter/media/snow-5-1-14-cci_zps083b5b9f.png.html)

For reference, here is the climatological average for May 1st, courtesy of Rutgers Snowlab:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_clim50%2F122.png&hash=b7065f4620a1165a93c308658d7634fc)

And here's what things looked like on May 1st of 2012, the year of the record melt:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_ims%2F2012122.png&hash=dbd22db46047ee67b4c73bfe911644da)

I think 2014's snowmelt is gonna give 2012's a run for its money...

And up until about June 1st, I am much more interested in watching the snow retreat than the sea ice retreat because the snow retreat is much more rapid during this part of the melting season and has much larger albedo feedback effects than the sea ice. 

If I was looking for record low sea ice extent come September, I would trade 1 million sq. km of sea ice extent for 5 million km sq. km of snowcover on May 15th any day of the week. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on April 25, 2014, 06:16:28 AM
good job, RC!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 25, 2014, 09:18:48 AM
It looks like the northern hemisphere snowcover is about to get murdered next week:...

There is negligible difference between 2014 and 2012 for certain.

Snow cover and air temperature are far less important in my opinion, than open water and open skies.  At this point, increasing portions of the arctic are under 24/7 insolation.  Melt ponds and leads become the driving forces, far more than continental conditions.

Now counter to that... disappearing snow cover *DOES* turn into melt river volume, which has been shown to have a significant impact on near-shore ice both in the CAA and across Siberia.

That will have an effect; indeed, may *already* be having an effect, which we are not measuring.  As someone else said, we appear to be ahead of schedule....
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 25, 2014, 10:01:12 AM
The frost has melted from O-Buoy 9 (http://greatwhitecon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/winter-201314-imbs/#OBuoy9), to reveal bright sunshine and an Ice Tethered Profiler:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 25, 2014, 10:25:37 AM
"Water sky blink" is visible on the Barrow sea ice webcam now!!

Here's the latest shot from the Barrow webcam:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffeeder.gina.alaska.edu%2Fdragonfly%2F2014%2F04%2F25%2F00_16_37_974_ABCam_20140424_2356.jpg&hash=f76c1c0eca8f776693fc7bb6874d3388)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 25, 2014, 10:56:06 AM
Thanks, Jim,
It's the open stress lead, about 2 km into the sea, along the fast ice. Not unusual to see this. As the ice in the Chukchi Sea is very mobile, this 'opening' may be bound to become  serious next week. Contrary to a couple of days ago, ECMWF doesn't forecast an eclipse in the present 'dipole'  anymore. It shows the 10-day forecast as very volatile.
If true, the Barentsz-kara remain in easterly flow; some ice decay near the Kara Strait.
Most action in the Beaufort/Chukchi.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 25, 2014, 02:34:37 PM
Some action in the Northwest Passage yesterday. The fractured Amundsen Gulf:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 25, 2014, 09:39:26 PM
albedo dropping quickly all over the place.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov%2Fimagery%2Fsubsets%2F%3Fmosaic%3DArctic.2014115.terra.367.4km.jpg&hash=dbd0767fa90ba6441ab25cf68c993aa3)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 25, 2014, 10:27:37 PM
albedo dropping quickly all over the place.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov%2Fimagery%2Fsubsets%2F%3Fmosaic%3DArctic.2014115.terra.367.4km.jpg&hash=dbd0767fa90ba6441ab25cf68c993aa3)

What color(s) are low/high albedo on this false color map?   
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on April 25, 2014, 11:23:14 PM
Nightvid Cole: I suspect this isn't a simple linear color scale, but rather a multispectral image. 

In this case we can see the (red) snow on  northern Skandinavia; the (green) uncovered land south; the (black) ocean and the white clouds.

Looking at the edges of Greenland; a lighter red has a higher reflectance.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Rubikscube on April 26, 2014, 12:44:48 AM
Thank you for appreciating my work guys. I kind of agree with you Comradez that at this early stage of the season, snow cover is perhaps even more exiting to watch than SIA/SIE as snow cover extent often turn out to be very indicative for the magnitude of the summer ice melt desipte the chaotic nature of this system which generaly makes the severity of the summer melt very hard to predict.

As for the difference between 2012 and 2014 mentioned by jdallen, this is what the 2012 map looks like using the same technique (false color ice covered with blue this time).

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi59.tinypic.com%2F2r46jr6.jpg&hash=f98197d999211e9449175b5302b372a2)

The difference for this particular date doesn't seem very brutal, as opposed to the 2013 pic. I would like to have this same type of comparison for 2007 as well, but the CT picture displayed in their archive is shown from a slightly different angle, something which is beyond my limited skills to adjust for. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChasingIce on April 26, 2014, 05:34:03 AM
We're talking about a 2deg. difference at this point. (like, today)

-17 vs -15
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2014, 10:32:07 AM
Euro horrible tonight for next week oh my oh my

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FbitO8IG.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FbitO8IG.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=3b026dca121f927a7c1b88b85323fe65)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 26, 2014, 08:09:29 PM
The open water area in the Beaufort is exploding in size.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: NeilT on April 27, 2014, 04:30:51 PM
Given the temperatures and weather around Barrow, is the greatly enlarging water around the area really about ice mobility or is there some heat budget in the water we are not fully seeing.

It just appears to me that -6C temperatures, in spring, should re-freeze the water even if it is moving around a lot.  It would be thin ice to be sure, but not open water.

That should take heat and the heat is not in the atmoshpere and the sun is not driving enough w/msq to warm that water that much.

Just a thought.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on April 27, 2014, 05:18:14 PM
Well, Barrow will actually experience 0-4 deg Celsius above zero during wednesday-sunday before somewhat colder air is returning temps below zero which certainly won't help the ice there... It will be interesting to see how much sunlight Barrow will get these days... All according to latest forecast..

Just as a interesting note the SIE is almost at the same numbers as last spring.. The next date to keep an eye on is may 15 which is the earliest day the SIE have dropped below 12 million km2..
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 27, 2014, 07:32:50 PM
Given the temperatures and weather around Barrow, is the greatly enlarging water around the area really about ice mobility or is there some heat budget in the water we are not fully seeing.

It just appears to me that -6C temperatures, in spring, should re-freeze the water even if it is moving around a lot.  It would be thin ice to be sure, but not open water.

That should take heat and the heat is not in the atmoshpere and the sun is not driving enough w/msq to warm that water that much.

Just a thought.

The SSTs are going to be volatile, and the key to refreezing isn't air temp as much as it is heat loss out of the atmosphere.  Low SST are also fighting against rapidly increasing insolation. Add to that, -6 C is only about 4C cooler than the water.  -6C air doesn't have the heat carrying capacity necessary to let the seahwater do much more than build a transient skin of nilas, if that.  Cloudiness now will produce warmer temperatures (albeit more slowly) as well, as that while reducing insolation, it also retards re radiation.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 27, 2014, 08:58:11 PM
Given the temperatures and weather around Barrow, is the greatly enlarging water around the area really about ice mobility or is there some heat budget in the water we are not fully seeing.

It just appears to me that -6C temperatures, in spring, should re-freeze the water even if it is moving around a lot.  It would be thin ice to be sure, but not open water.

That should take heat and the heat is not in the atmoshpere and the sun is not driving enough w/msq to warm that water that much.

Just a thought.

The SSTs are going to be volatile, and the key to refreezing isn't air temp as much as it is heat loss out of the atmosphere.  Low SST are also fighting against rapidly increasing insolation. Add to that, -6 C is only about 4C cooler than the water.  -6C air doesn't have the heat carrying capacity necessary to let the seahwater do much more than build a transient skin of nilas, if that.  Cloudiness now will produce warmer temperatures (albeit more slowly) as well, as that while reducing insolation, it also retards re radiation.

I have a hard time believing that cloudiness makes it warmer now, with the sun having a declination of 13 degrees North, well over half the maximum value in June. Would it be unreasonable for me to ask how you concluded such a thing?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on April 27, 2014, 09:03:38 PM
It just appears to me that -6C temperatures, in spring, should re-freeze the water even if it is moving around a lot.  It would be thin ice to be sure, but not open water.

Wayne Davidson pointed out several years ago that bottom melt typically begins once the air temperature rises above -14ºC.  There is a large thermal mass (the water) sitting at ~-2ºC.  If you examine buoy data you can see that -14ºC is a boundary temperature between growth and loss.  Likewise the DMI graphs for temps north of 80º typically show a brief plateau in both spring and fall when temps rise/fall to -14ºC.  Again this would be indicative of the change from a growth regime to a loss regime and vice versa.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 27, 2014, 09:28:36 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn542.gif&hash=2fa998cef58b5ff6cac0c9889daa8b95)
This will be the apocalypse, massive melting of snow and positive feedback.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on April 28, 2014, 12:35:47 AM
I think Wayne also said refreezing of open water usually starts at around -11C? wouldn't expect any significant new ice to be forming around barrow at this time of year
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: pearscot on April 28, 2014, 04:47:23 AM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn542.gif&hash=2fa998cef58b5ff6cac0c9889daa8b95)
This will be the apocalypse, massive melting of snow and positive feedback.

I do see how the dipole is set to develop again but can you explain why it will be quite so bad?  I'm not disagreeing with you at all, I would just like to know more about what is setting up.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: CraigsIsland on April 28, 2014, 05:40:00 AM
I think the scary part is having warmer air over vulnerable parts of where snow normally is. Past posters have indicated that this year has been bad for snow cover and thus contribute to more sunlight hitting darker parts of the globe. We'd rather see "normal temperatures" than extremes to help alleviate the snow cover recession. It's just not helping that this pattern is developing rather strongly. A lot of negative feedbacks; warmer air, more methane release possibility, more heat content in oceans/land potentially.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on April 28, 2014, 06:16:19 AM
... still, it won't be the apocalypse, and the hyperbole is not especially helpful to people are beginning the process of learning how the arctic melts
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jonthed on April 28, 2014, 07:29:19 AM
albedo dropping quickly all over the place.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Flance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov%2Fimagery%2Fsubsets%2F%3Fmosaic%3DArctic.2014115.terra.367.4km.jpg&hash=dbd0767fa90ba6441ab25cf68c993aa3)

What color(s) are low/high albedo on this false color map?

I think it is actually simply showing the change in albedo, i.e. red is negative change (becoming less reflective) and the darker the red, the greater the change. Likewise green would be an increase in albedo, becoming more reflective due to fresh snow etc.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 28, 2014, 07:35:10 AM
Holy crap.

17 days ago versus yesterday.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrKpdJxa.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrKpdJxa.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=1827fb16f8c645ad31df8f77fb030410)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on April 28, 2014, 07:37:12 AM

Here


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrKpdJxa.gif&hash=d538d803c93283294dec1e95b145da8a)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 28, 2014, 08:16:53 AM
<snippage>

I have a hard time believing that cloudiness makes it warmer now, with the sun having a declination of 13 degrees North, well over half the maximum value in June. Would it be unreasonable for me to ask how you concluded such a thing?
I think others covered it pretty adequately, but let me expand.

First, its a question of rate of transfer of heat out of the atmosphere, not rate of transfer from water to air.  Even with cloudiness, the sunlight still heats the atmosphere, and reduces the lost from exchange.

Second, clouds are a net insulator - increased H2O will significantly increase heat retention.

Third, as indicated, the ocean itself is a huge heat reservoir, on the order of 100 times greater heat content per unit volume that atmosphere.  Further that the temperature of that reservoir is right at -2C, generally even a little higher, so loss of sunlight does not eliminate the heat available to prevent a surface phase change.  ktonine notes that bottom melt may actually start at around -14C  (Reference?  I can see how it would happen mechanically, but references are good.)

So, in short, at this point of the season, I don't see lack of sunlight permitting refreeze.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 28, 2014, 10:28:46 AM
Friv seems to have covered the Bering/Chukchi Seas (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-28&map=-3909856,723712,-633056,2157312) more than adequately, so here's an interesting artefact from the US Navy's ACNFS (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html) thickness forecast for May 5th. Notice the fracture that runs all the way from Banks Island to the New Siberian Islands?

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on April 28, 2014, 12:02:19 PM
(Reference?  I can see how it would happen mechanically, but references are good.)

think the numbers were based on Wayne's own in situ observations and intended as a rule of thumb
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 28, 2014, 12:29:21 PM
If you examine buoy data you can see that -14ºC is a boundary temperature between growth and loss.

I've spent a lot of time looking at buoy data, and whilst air temperatures above -14ºC might typically stop growth, they certainly don't start bottom melt.  By way of example hunt around in the blue pushpins and look at the temperature profiles for this buoy from the Beaufort last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2013-imbs/#2012H (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/summer-2013-imbs/#2012H)

Bottom melt doesn't get going until the whole floe is above -2ºC, which doesn't (usually!) take place until July.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on April 28, 2014, 04:46:10 PM
Friv seems to have covered the Bering/Chukchi Seas (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-28&map=-3909856,723712,-633056,2157312) more than adequately, so here's an interesting artefact from the US Navy's ACNFS (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/arctic.html) thickness forecast for May 5th. Notice the fracture that runs all the way from Banks Island to the New Siberian Islands?


That's probably a numerical issue, right ...? Or did any artifact of this sort become something real in the past? I read (here and in Neven's blog) several posts trashing this model very badly, but I've been watching it lately, and it has been predicting the ice boundary changes very well.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 28, 2014, 06:20:34 PM
SeattleRocks,

Check out wind movement.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif)

HYCOM (some people cal it ACNFS) has a tendency to have ice that is too 'sticky'. So when it pulls away from the coast it may move as a mass and open a coastal flaw lead that is bigger than in reality. In reality what happens is that a series of fault fractures open up across the ice as the ice is 'pulled apart' by the movement away from the coast.

I've not been following the IR images but I think this can be seen here:
http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg (http://weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/hrpt_dfo_ir_100.jpg)
There's a set of parallel fractures visible off the Alaskan coast reaching well into the pack - not as obvious as sometimes becuase the pack is so heavily fractured.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 28, 2014, 06:39:58 PM
An interesting week coming up for the Arctic.

First off, from mid-week until the weekend, it looks like there will be some very mild conditions around the Bering Strait area, especially toward toward the Beaufort sea.
Southerly winds, upper air temperatures above 0C and surface temperatures often above 0C should cause some rapid melting of the ice remaining in the Bering Sea (about 450k left in extent), while some minor early melting in the Chukchi and Beaufort sea could be expected.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FXbhyJ6H.png&hash=310f73ca8c5f011c041e3bdc63c97ba3)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDsqDUvq.png&hash=74480877e67bea32b0320c9c7d9b168e)

The Sea of Okhotsk looks like remaining cool to the north, but bouts of very mild air should whittle away the last of the ice in southern area.

Hudson Bay looks like seeing it's first mild spell of the year, with surface temps and uppers climbing above 0C for much of the next week. This may cause some slow melting, though I would expect a whole lot as it's not exceptionally warm, and the ice is probably quite thick.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fok0rezm.png&hash=3e247187fedb89a388a0ff050fedf68b)

All the while, the general dipole pattern continues, with this month looking remarkably similar to  Apr 2007.

2007
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRRvcdEB.gif&hash=05befb2bea8cc68ede10858b01452fa7)

2014
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjFXJQZj.gif&hash=2488f0992ea8bb22017409ca80427d17)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on April 29, 2014, 12:09:48 AM
Chris, thank you. So if i understand... the winds  cause strong shearing stresses that in the real world will be alleviated by a complex web of fractures; but the model within its limitation cannot but show a single lead. Which means that the model is qualitatively correct in predicting a real phenomenon... I'm curious to see this in a few days, if the wind forecast doesnt change in the meantime.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 29, 2014, 12:24:47 AM
Not so far off as one might think.

Weather is quite clear over the Beaufort.  Here's yesterday's Lance-Modis imagery.

The whole arctic first.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014117.terra.4km (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014117.terra.4km)

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2014117.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c03.2014117.terra)

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2014117.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c02.2014117.terra)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 29, 2014, 01:25:48 AM
Another contrast.

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=25&fy=2012&sm=04&sd=25&sy=2014 (http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=04&fd=25&fy=2012&sm=04&sd=25&sy=2014)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 29, 2014, 11:20:29 AM
That's probably a numerical issue, right ...? Or did any artifact of this sort become something real in the past? I read (here and in Neven's blog) several posts trashing this model very badly, but I've been watching it lately, and it has been predicting the ice boundary changes very well.

Here's an article of mine from March 2013, which includes an ACNFS forecast that did "become something real (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule,arctic_coastlines&time=2013-03-20&map=-891424,-693248,-72224,-334848)" (see below)

http://econnexus.org/the-ice-cap-crack-d-from-side-side/ (http://econnexus.org/the-ice-cap-crack-d-from-side-side/)

However the pan Arctic fracture visible yesterday seems to have disappeared from the latest forecast (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2014042818_2014050500_039_arcticictn.001.gif).

Getting pedantic about nomenclature, the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) couples the HYCOM (ocean), NAVGEM (atmosphere) and CICE (sea ice) models using the Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation (NCODA) system!  It assimilates information about the ice edge but not ice thickness, not least because the latter is rather more tricky to measure than the former.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 29, 2014, 11:50:54 AM
An ever changing array of aspects through subtle differences in physical processes…. That comes to my mind watching today’s MODIS tiles on the Chukchi/ESS side of the Central Arctic Basin.

It looks as yet another different melt season unfolding. Vast swaths of small floes (mean say 70 km2) become visible within an intricate mesh pattern of leads. I’ll give it a try later, comparing to earlier years. Right now, I’m getting more anxious by the day to find out what this season will bring.
It doesn’t look good. Once again. What I see relates to last winter. I see scattered small floes that survived last summer and froze in situ. The main part, where the leads have formed now, is FYI. Formed in the initial cold period October-November, it soon became snow-covered. More than usual. The snow cover and the low ‘winter power’ after November prohibited much thickening.

My guess is a mean 1.4 m for the FYI and 1.8 for the surviving floes. Not much more than the FYI; the difference is mainly structural. (Jim, is there an ice-tethered buoy in the ESS region?)

It seems most of the unusual thick snow cover is now gone. Not through melt, but I guess through wind-sweep and sublimation. This leaves the remaining ice vulnerable. It is highly mobile and lacks strength.
One indication will be given by PIOMAS soon. Expect volume to be near or under the lowest for the date. If so, what I see on MODIS could be the beginning of a spectacular season.

It doesn’t matter that the Barentsz Sea has quite some extent at the moment. The big story is ice quality over vast stretches of the Alaskan and Siberian side of the Basin.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Apocalypse4Real on April 29, 2014, 12:54:38 PM
In regard to Arctic Sea Ice conditions in MYI, it is fracturing as much as the FYI elsewhere in the AO. Below is the NOAA-19 AVHRR IR AO/NP Canadian Arctic view. The ice has fractured often across the Beaufort and Canadian Arctic through this winter as depicted here. (Click the image for the higher resolution).

Also below is the NP shot fromm IceBridge for April 27, 2014, taken by James K. Yungel. Note the fracturing, and also the refreezing leads.

An increased radiation on the ice will have an impact on melt through the summer.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 29, 2014, 01:18:18 PM
Thanks, A4R,

That AVHRR shows Beaufort-Central Pack. To the Sib side lie the regions that I commented on. There's subtle difference. On the parts shown on AVHRR, get a look on the MODIS tile over there (r04c03 FI). There's more snow cover left, the floes between the fractures look larger.
That belonged to last year's remaining 'coherent' MYI, about 1.8 Mkm2 in September.

Go on the same tile to the upper right corner (dir Siberia) and the pattern changes in the way I tried to describe...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 29, 2014, 01:54:36 PM
My guess is a mean 1.4 m for the FYI and 1.8 for the surviving floes. Not much more than the FYI; the difference is mainly structural. (Jim, is there an ice-tethered buoy in the ESS region?)

There are no IMB's on the Eastern side of the Arctic, unless you count 2014E currently at 1.13E near the pole. There's one fully functional ITP (74), but that's north of Franz Josef Land. I assume this is the area (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-04-26&map=-2010112,1179072,-371712,1895872) under discussion, from the 26th?

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on April 29, 2014, 03:03:34 PM

...

Bottom melt doesn't get going until the whole floe is above -2ºC, which doesn't (usually!) take place until July.

This makes me think of Neven's post about the correlation between melt ponds in May and September extend. Whilst melt ponds are directly an indication of warmth experienced by a floe, it is also a mechanism that assures the whole floe's temperature is kept (regulated) at about 0C.

So if my science is correct, it would mean that:
If a melt pond is present and cold weather passes overhead, the melt pond will first have to refreeze before the floe's temp can drop, and all the while bottom melt is continuing, even as the melt pond is busy refreezing.
Melt ponds are thus an indication of bottom melt, irrespective of surface temp (excluding small range where temp is between -2 and 0 - when melt will be slow)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 29, 2014, 07:37:07 PM
Gerrit,

The major issue with melt ponds is that early formation allows them to absorb a lot more solar radiation over the melt season that would be the case without them. More melt ponds seem to be happening because in recent years the seasons are are starting with flatter first year ice, whereas in the past there was more ridged multi year ice.

Bottom melt happens, but the sun dominates the ice and changes in the amount of sunlight trapped (not reflected back to space) are very important because of the sun's leading role.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 29, 2014, 07:39:36 PM
Not long before we have PIOMAS April data - showing ice thickness at the start of the melt season. With luck Dr Zhang will post gridded data.

Then we need to wait to see the size of the CT Area June Cliff, which gives us a rough guide as to melt pond formation (I suspect).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 29, 2014, 08:13:13 PM
Spamming the thread with a third comment...

Using NCEP/NCAR - Jan Feb March north of 80degN (to be in line with the DMI temperature plots) was the warmest JFM since 1948. April so far has remained warm.

April so far (1st to 27th) in 2013 was above average temperature wise, this year has been much warmer!

See images below.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on April 29, 2014, 08:34:49 PM
Well done Chris,
I've been contemplating posting on this, since you illustrated it well, I can hold back my own spamming with NCEP/NCAR images for april '12/'14. Those are exemplaric too, but not as spectacular as your 1/1 to 27/4 image!
Meanwhile, DMI is about 4dC above normal for the date, 6dC above '12, so what about the headstart?
Not hard to see why MODIS shows 'subtle' differences with earlier years.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on April 29, 2014, 09:19:37 PM
Some of this was touched on briefly in the Global Surface Air Temperatures thread, but it was also the warmest first 3 months of the year for north of 70N

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FoJElN6u.png&hash=8c7efa304f791326c0df75f1b787b3cd)

And the 2nd warmest first 3 months for the northern polar (60N-85N) region according to UAH.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FY7zFM2k.jpg&hash=49c0a097a8843da0c21ac62f3f23e857)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on April 29, 2014, 09:29:55 PM

...

Bottom melt doesn't get going until the whole floe is above -2ºC, which doesn't (usually!) take place until July.

This makes me think of Neven's post about the correlation between melt ponds in May and September extend. Whilst melt ponds are directly an indication of warmth experienced by a floe, it is also a mechanism that assures the whole floe's temperature is kept (regulated) at about 0C.

So if my science is correct, it would mean that:
If a melt pond is present and cold weather passes overhead, the melt pond will first have to refreeze before the floe's temp can drop, and all the while bottom melt is continuing, even as the melt pond is busy refreezing.
Melt ponds are thus an indication of bottom melt, irrespective of surface temp (excluding small range where temp is between -2 and 0 - when melt will be slow)

I think that yes, where you have melt ponds, it mostly follows there is bottom melt.

Some caveats.  First, MYI has a higher melting point, as de-brining will reduce salt content.  In that case,  bottom melt depends on higher water temperatures, and to a lesser degree, the action of salt on the relatively salt free ice. You can have melt ponds, and relatively no bottom melt.

Second, it's about rate of heat transfer and available heat.  There is more than enough heat in tha arctic to melt *everything* there.  It is sequestered mostly at depth, which is why in part storms and their related Ekman pumping are so destructive to ice.

Third, phase change, more than temperature, buffers the melt, both ways.  Combined with the slower heat transfer through ice, it means top and bottom melt can frequently operate independent of one another.  The thicker the ice, the more likely they are independent.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on April 29, 2014, 09:56:20 PM
BFTV,

Yep, I've been busy so may have missed this being stated on this thread or elsewhere.

Werther,

I can't wait to get April's time series graph, I can only plot time series for fully completed months.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 29, 2014, 10:58:02 PM
Cryosphere Today - freezing.
Date     Area             Change area
20.04: 12 160 368   11 030
21.04: 12 179 074   18 706
22.04: 12 196 437   17 363
23.04: 12 177 609   18 828
24.04: 12 199 998   22 389
25.04: 12 279 904   79 906
26.04: 12 311 213   31 309
27.04: 12 294 369   16 844

Why is this happening?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LarsBoelen on April 29, 2014, 11:14:02 PM
Hubert,

first of all get rid of at least 5 digits, they're not significant. (Clouds, fog,  Reflections all influence the measurements)
Second : the arctic ice sheet is not a sheet, but more a collection of floats, being pushed around by the wind and currents
Third patches refreeze with thin ice due to low temperatures and melt out due to sun
Fourth melt pools form that hide underlying ice

Add them all up me you get a highly dynamic "area" affected by weatherm currents, clouds and what have you. So looking at daily updates is only indicative, no exact science.

Hope this helps
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Hubert on April 30, 2014, 11:59:22 AM
Recently in the Arctic is quite warm, and sunny in most areas. So the conditions for melting. According to the NSIDC and JAXA ice extent decreases. That is erroneous reading of measurement data satellite CT.

And what are the the forecasts for the summer melting?


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on April 30, 2014, 12:44:51 PM
Recently in the Arctic is quite warm, and sunny in most areas. So the conditions for melting. According to the NSIDC and JAXA ice extent decreases. That is erroneous reading of measurement data satellite CT.


Hubert, the NSIDC and the CT data are actually both  acquired by Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) on board the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) F17 satellite.
See for instance here (http://nsidc.org/data/docs/daac/ssmis_instrument/index.html)

For months the area/extent ratio has been below that in 2013, just for the last couple of days it is a bit above. I don't see any reason to suspect an error.
Area/Extent ratio (officially "compactness") can be seen here:

(https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-compact-compare.png)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 30, 2014, 12:46:31 PM
There's plenty of open water visible on the Barrow webcam (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam) this morning:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffeeder.gina.alaska.edu%2Fdragonfly%2F2014%2F04%2F30%2F02_36_29_290_ABCam_20140430_0217.jpg&hash=9d2089c6df17d83d8a6b13d6b9786c22)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on April 30, 2014, 01:35:42 PM
Hubbert, if ice fragments it will cover a larger area with thinner thickness. I doubt this is fully responsible for all the difference - just changing the distribution can mean that there is more area of holes that are too small to be detected. Also changes in snow cover can cause issues for the algorithm that tries to work out how much snow, ice and open water is being detected. A small change in snow cover can be equivalent to a large change in ice:water.

As Wipneus said, I don't see any reason to think anything is going wrong even though the size of the effect does appear unusually large.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on April 30, 2014, 01:37:31 PM
There's plenty of open water visible on the Barrow webcam (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_webcam) this morning:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffeeder.gina.alaska.edu%2Fdragonfly%2F2014%2F04%2F30%2F02_36_29_290_ABCam_20140430_0217.jpg&hash=9d2089c6df17d83d8a6b13d6b9786c22)

I wondered how long that fast ice would make it.

Now we know. She's done for! [spoken loudly with US Midwestern accent]  :D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on April 30, 2014, 04:07:24 PM


Some caveats.  First, MYI has a higher melting point, as de-brining will reduce salt content.  In that case,  bottom melt depends on higher water temperatures, and to a lesser degree, the action of salt on the relatively salt free ice. You can have melt ponds, and relatively no bottom melt.


Now I have no education in ice, but I see a problem with that notion. Although very true pure ice has a higher melt point then salt water ice, that ignores one very big difference between FYI and MYI. With MYI the salt has been push out of the ice and has become far denser and with a tighter bonding of the ice structure itself. Whereas with the FYI the ice has far more fissures and access to the inner structure for melt from the inside out also.
The issues I see arising now with the 2014 type of MYI is that it is broken up into far small sections then pre 1980s which gives greater access to both thermo and mechanical melt but also the ice vertically is far weaker structurally then in the past allowing for far more inner melt then in the past.
I do know that there are those that would disagree with inner melt happening, but I think there is plenty of evidence based on how weak even thick is now there is inner melt occurring. Not taking that into consideration then confuses comparisons between the ice of 1980 and the ice of 2014. That is why in 2012 when there was a severe melt off with even pure melt weather was able to happen IMO.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on April 30, 2014, 04:39:06 PM
A better look at the sea ice near the New Siberian Islands today:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 01, 2014, 04:12:03 AM

The Mackenzie Delta region is progged to have a mean temp of 0C the next 9 days.

umm lol that is crazy.

The 12z EURO also blasts the same region the next 10 days.

I am almost certain that if the models forecasts are right.  We will have unprecedented open water on the Pacific side.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FSojkLbF.png%3F1&hash=c5dadce25bb2026ff80e8b483d8a1fb5)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sydb on May 01, 2014, 04:57:24 PM
Yesterday, I flew from London to Calgary, crossing the southern tip of Greenland and Baffin Island and the northern tip of Labrador. There were many ice floes visible in the Greenland Sea and the Hudson Strait had many leads. We sew many cracks on Hudson#s Bay and when we crossed onto the mainland south of Churchill, there was open water by the coast. It was great to have clear skies past Greenland to see all this, but I couldn't help reflecting on the fact that it was also torching the ice. Some floes were noticeably much darker than others, so I assume they would be very thin. From an aircraft the albedo difference between ice and open water is very striking. All in all, fascinating to see, but I did not like what I saw. I thought April 30th very early for all this melt.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 02, 2014, 10:45:33 AM
The Euro and GFS both show a dipole anomaly for the foreseeable future.  Oscillating in strength.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: SteveMDFP on May 02, 2014, 03:26:28 PM
Baked Alaska
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 02, 2014, 05:57:18 PM
Baked Alaska
I just took a look at climate re analyzer.  You're not far off, but only for the next 36-48 hours. That said, it does seem that plumes of heat are being driven into high latitudes; later in the week it's Siberia's turn. Next few weeks, start watching drops in snow cover and temperature changes at arctic deltas. Hard to tell what is or is not anomalous there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 02, 2014, 06:44:09 PM
Visible sat images show the Alaska region snow pack has been nearly obliterated.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 02, 2014, 11:50:30 PM
Barrow webcam, 02 May 2014:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FBarrow02052014small_zps9167e000.jpg&hash=aea736c43d427d55a5a5aea875a4c2b8)

The unusual early spring arrival in Alaska shows up on the boards of the Chukchi Sea.
Snow in town is melting, melt ponds show up on the fast ice. A mild +4dC today.

Let's watch MODIS tomorrow Friv!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Laurent on May 03, 2014, 12:25:23 AM
That's amazing if you look at the last 10 days radar. The ice is just gone and the flow of water is fast...
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_radar)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 03, 2014, 01:56:52 AM

The unusual early spring arrival in Alaska shows up on the boards of the Chukchi Sea.
Snow in town is melting, melt ponds show up on the fast ice. A mild +4dC today.

Let's watch MODIS tomorrow Friv!

4C is rather warm, for certain (it's been in the upper 20's this week in *Seattle*).

The melt ponds concern me greatly, if what we see on the 'cam is suggestive of what is now happening on the Beaufort pack.

I'll be joining you and Friv.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: davidsanger on May 03, 2014, 08:58:02 AM
I came across this 5/1 Sea Surface temperature map and you can see right at the top some very high SST anomalies west of Svalbard and also in the Beaufort Sea.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 03, 2014, 12:09:56 PM
According to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, April was the 5th mildest on record for N of 70N. The year to date is by far the mildest on record, and the first to average higher than -20C.

N of 70N April
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FETsIbWj.png&hash=1d9499a47119e65e7766dfa15a31ab9a)

January to April
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQBBtXdO.png&hash=f4890be4e5ece199f718b58a67ea89bb)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 03, 2014, 06:38:08 PM
Very striking charts, BFTV.  Yet nothing dramatic happening with area or extent.  Seems like ice dynamics has the upper hand over weather so far.  If the warmth anomaly persists and melt pond formation is unusually early or widespread, some "cliff" predictions will be showing up here soon.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jai mitchell on May 03, 2014, 09:03:53 PM
Right around day 120 there is a break from temperature trends for every year going back at least 1.5 decades.  What could cause a break from temperature trends at this day each year?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php)

Interesting, U.S. refineries are required to switch to summer blend gasoline by May 1st.  I wonder if this could have an affect?

http://www.oregonlive.com/commuting/index.ssf/2014/04/oregon_washington_gas_prices_e.html (http://www.oregonlive.com/commuting/index.ssf/2014/04/oregon_washington_gas_prices_e.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: SCYetti on May 04, 2014, 01:55:19 AM
Jai Mitchel,
 the DMI chart to which you linked goes bach to 1958 and shows just how unusual last years Arctic summer was. Despite increased melt over the last 55 years the summer temperatuers appear to me to be surprisingly consistant. Last year there was a noticeable drop. I would suggest that this was because air was exosed to -2C sea water as opposed to 0C ice and melt ponds.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 04, 2014, 02:48:06 AM
Alaska snow cover loss is a little over 25 days early at this point versus 1981-2010 climo.
Amazing.



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on May 04, 2014, 03:55:31 AM
SCYetti - the summertime temperatures essentially cannot go much above zero because of the physics.  You have a massive thermal body at the surface that is tied to 0ºC.  The air temperatures must follow closely.

Right around day 120 there is a break from temperature trends for every year going back at least 1.5 decades.  What could cause a break from temperature trends at this day each year?

jai -- When you take into account Wayne Davidson's data that shows bottom melt can commence once air temps reach -14ºC, you'll note that this is the average temperature (259K)  around day 120.  I assume this is the time of year when solar insolation typically causes temps to reach 259K, so bottom melt can begin.  With bottom melt beginning there is a phase transition in the ice over a large area.  Energy that would be going into sensible heat is melting ice. You can see a similar break around 259K in the fall.  Since summer/fall is more variable than winter/spring the fall break does not occur around a specific date the way  the spring break does.

I've seen neither the spring nor fall breaks written about in any scientific papers, but this is the only answer that makes any sense to me. 

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 04, 2014, 06:23:25 AM
Not to steal Espens thunder so I will post it here.

Jaxa down another -76K.

Weather is bad.

The wind pattern has been downright horrible
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 04, 2014, 10:12:38 AM
Not to steal Espens thunder so I will post it here.

Jaxa down another -76K.

Weather is bad.

The wind pattern has been downright horrible
I've been looking at climate re analyzer with a certain amount of horrified fascination. Yup, horrible is an appropriate word. Pray for a cold snap?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 04, 2014, 10:19:21 AM
When you take into account Wayne Davidson's data that shows bottom melt can commence once air temps reach -14ºC

Can you provide a link to Wayne's assertion that this is the case? As I mentioned previously, it doesn't seem that way to me after peering at lots of IMB data.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Andreas T on May 04, 2014, 12:01:39 PM
Having had a look at some current buoy data http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm) 2014B 2014C 2013G  2013F 2013I (2014 has no working bottom sounder but fits the picture shown by the others) I agree with Jim.
As Wayne says "can" commence, it clearly depends very much on what the water conditions below the ice are. The buoy data mainly show how slowly the bottom of thick ice responds to temperatures at its surface. When air temperatures rise quickly, temperature profiles in the ice show ice temperatures below both bottom and top surface due to its thermal mass.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 04, 2014, 12:29:25 PM
O-Buoy 10 (http://obuoy.datatransport.org/monitor#buoy10/camera) is now producing some slightly fuzzy images:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 04, 2014, 12:38:02 PM
Having had a look at some current buoy data

My own interpretation of current and past buoy data can be seen at:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/ice-mass-balance-buoys/)

I can see no evidence in there that bottom melt does "commence once air temps reach -14 ºC". However I am eager to view any evidence to the contrary!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Andreas T on May 04, 2014, 02:12:42 PM
Jim, the temperature profile for 2014C on 21. Mar looks odd when compared to the 30. Mar profile and the bottom sounder data which shows roughly 20cm of added thickness between these dates.
The shorter gradient on 21.Mar suggests much lower ice thickness, could this be too soon after deployment to represent the actual ice condition?
Sorry but I can't look at the buoy data file at the moment to get a clearer picture how that comes about.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on May 04, 2014, 05:55:37 PM
Jim, I believe I first saw Wayne use -14ºC in a comment at Neven's several years ago.  He has actually recorded bottom melt at surface temperatures much lower than that, but I think he may have been using -14 as a typical or average value. 

Ice thickness plays a large role.  Thicker ice (though little of it is left) has actually been observed to melt throughout the winter - despite surface temperatures reaching -40ºC.  See the 8m consolidated *unconsolidated* ridge cited in Temporal Evolution of Arctic Sea-Ice Temperature (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/pdfs/Temporal%20Evolution.pdf),  Perovich and Elder, Annals of Glaciology, 2001.

You can read about Wayne's observations (and ask him relevant questions) on his blog, EH2R.  This is one of the posts devoted to bottom melt. Sea Ice Phase Change from the Underside (http://eh2r.blogspot.com/2013/05/sea-ice-phase-change-from-underside.html)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Andreas T on May 04, 2014, 08:11:25 PM
Thanks for the Perovich and Elder link, it fits very well with my understanding of the physics, temperature in the ice being controlled by conduction, temperature at top and bottom and heat fluxes.
Wayne's blog posts are less clear, more in the nature of sketching his ideas, than outlining  physical processes. As I understand him he infers melt from his interpretation of air temperature gradients which are observed through changes in the apparent height of the horizon. I am not aware of any actual observations of ice thickness and change thereof together with his optical observations. Please link if you can point me to them.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 05, 2014, 12:14:34 AM
Jim, the temperature profile for 2014C on 21. Mar looks odd when compared to the 30. Mar profile and the bottom sounder data which shows roughly 20cm of added thickness between these dates.

I brought 2014C up to date. I reckon on Mar 21 the water in the hole the thermistors were installed in was still in the process of freezing.

ktonine - Even having looked at the pictures in Perovich 2001 I still can't see evidence for bottom melt when the surface temperatures are -40 ºC. In all cases (except the 8m ridge where "the thickness gauges failed") bottom melt didn't set in until late June/early July. What am I missing?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on May 05, 2014, 02:41:29 AM
Jim - on page 208 you'll find under the header TEMPORAL EVOLUTION, 2nd paragraph: "The general seasonal evolution of temperature is similar at all sites .... The one exception was the 8 m thick unconsolidated ridge, where the bottom was melting the entire year."

Figure 4a on page 210 shows the air temperature in all of the areas under study reached -40ºC in January.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on May 05, 2014, 02:43:53 AM
Andreas - questions would be better directed to Wayne.  He has always replied to any questions I ask in the comments at his blog.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 05, 2014, 01:05:55 PM
Very striking charts, BFTV.  Yet nothing dramatic happening with area or extent.  Seems like ice dynamics has the upper hand over weather so far.  If the warmth anomaly persists and melt pond formation is unusually early or widespread, some "cliff" predictions will be showing up here soon.

Area or extent at this time of year is influenced mostly by weather conditions around the edges of the ice cover, largely outside the Arctic Ocean proper, in areas that will be gone by September no matter what. Thus, area/extent isn't really relevant at this time of year.

The important thing at this time of year is how thick or thin is the ice in the heart of the Arctic. And based on PIOMAS, the extent of ice > 2m thick is at an all time low as of March 31st (expect an update in a couple of days for the data through April 30th).

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 05, 2014, 03:26:17 PM
...
The important thing at this time of year is how thick or thin is the ice in the heart of the Arctic. ...
Yes, this. Plus also (at least to some extent) what happens with snow cover in the NH.

Few pages ago some neat cryosphere + photoshop false colors pictures of snowcover were presented. I join others saying my thanks to the author of those. I think, an occasional update of those (similar pictures comparing 2014 and 2012 same-date snow cover, and also 2014 and 2013 as well) now and then - would be bery interesting to see. And yes, removing ice (last version) makes it even better. //thumb_up
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 05, 2014, 10:51:17 PM
F.Tnioli, I think you can find that image here in the 2014 Arctic Snow Cover Melting Season (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,842.0.html) thread.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Robert Marston on May 06, 2014, 05:52:25 AM
Does anyone know of a comprehensive measure for Arctic Ocean sub-sea ice water temperatures at a uniform depth? Say 5-20 meters?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 06, 2014, 09:43:23 AM
Does anyone know of a comprehensive measure for Arctic Ocean sub-sea ice water temperatures at a uniform depth? Say 5-20 meters?
Not comprehensive, but the tend to stay between -2 and -1.5 down to below 50M, or at least have.  Ekman pumping may change that.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: deep octopus on May 06, 2014, 09:44:47 PM
Serious torching coming next week to the Pacific. Southerly winds well above freezing starting from Sunday. Tuesday the 13th's forecast looks brutal.

Unrelated to Arctic, but global anomaly of +0.93C!!

(https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-Ya31GJgesXE/U2k7BPx30eI/AAAAAAAAAbI/B8omKw0NhRM/w667-h739-no/cci_anomaly_may13.png)

(https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-dcpoFadZuKA/U2k7BH13mtI/AAAAAAAAAbM/y-pvT1Eg4vo/w716-h676-no/cci_may13.png)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 06, 2014, 10:25:39 PM
Serious torching coming next week to the Pacific. Southerly winds well above freezing starting from Sunday. Tuesday the 13th's forecast looks brutal.
Time to start watching melt pond coverage closely, I suspect, and try to make some comparisons to previous years.  The NA snow pack is going to be hit very hard, as will river ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 06, 2014, 10:54:49 PM
Time to start watching melt pond coverage closely, I suspect, and try to make some comparisons to previous years.  The NA snow pack is going to be hit very hard, as will river ice.
Speaking of melt ponds: do you guys (and/or gals) think that it matters where most of the melt ponding occurs during May/June?

I somehow thought that the Beaufort Sea would be the most important spot (as that's where most of the high-pressure areas are during the Arctic Dipole, which also plays a big role in how the melting season shapes up and ends), but to my surprise this image from the recent Schröder et al. paper I covered (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/04/more-on-melt-ponds.html) on the ASIB shows something else:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73db4944d970d-800wi&hash=118dc6bc85edbf0c0c58840a15a0488e)

Accompanying text: Figure 2 | Spatial distribution of Arctic melt-pond area. Mean pond area over the period from 25 June to 25 July for 1996 (a) and 2012 (b). The purple line is the September ice extent of the same year from our CICE simulation, and the black line is the ice extent from SSM/I. Crosses mark those grid points where mean pond area (1 May to 25 July) is strongly correlated with SSM/I September ice extent (correlation coefficient R<
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Robert Marston on May 06, 2014, 11:11:45 PM
Might be more instructive to find a comparison between 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2012 with 1996 as relative base line.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Robert Marston on May 06, 2014, 11:15:32 PM
Not comprehensive, but the tend to stay between -2 and -1.5 down to below 50M, or at least have.  Ekman pumping may change that.

Wanted to test a few storm dynamics assumptions in a warming Arctic environment.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: gerrit on May 07, 2014, 12:02:21 PM

Speaking of melt ponds: do you guys (and/or gals) think that it matters where most of the melt ponding occurs during May/June?

I somehow thought that the Beaufort Sea would be the most important spot (as that's where most of the high-pressure areas are during the Arctic Dipole, which also plays a big role in how the melting season shapes up and ends), ...
<warning: amateur opinion!  :P>
My gut feel is that early season surface melt is driven more by warm southerly winds than by solar radiation. Remember that the melt ponds you see in May/June is a result of weeks/months of heating (or at least lack of cold conditions). In this preceding period the sun was still very low. Also, early in the season reflectance is higher (ice flatter/whiter/no open ocean) so the sun is not really 'biting' yet. The dipole on the other hand pumps in lots of balmy air, and combined with windy conditions can transfer a lot of heat to the surface. (The 'windy' is very important for heat transfer - it mixes the cool surface air up with the rest and strips the natural insulating air layer from the ice).

When considering air flow into the arctic, the melt ponds looks like it is consistent with the dipole.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 07, 2014, 12:27:08 PM
Northern Hemisphere snow cover was the 6th smallest this April, with North America having it's 14th largest and Eurasia it's smallest cover on record. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php (http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/index.php)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9SaTBF9.jpg&hash=20d616a3530df239020b71f02fbab195)

The record low snow cover over Eurasia could come into play with early heat waves and rivers melting earlier.

While the hemispheric snow cover this April was very similar to 2012 and 2007 anomaly-wise, the distribution was quite different to 2012, but somewhat similar to 2007. Whether that's playing any role in the persistent dipole pattern we've seen in the last few months is another question!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 07, 2014, 02:21:24 PM
<warning: amateur opinion!  :P>
My gut feel is that early season surface melt is driven more by warm southerly winds than by solar radiation. Remember that the melt ponds you see in May/June is a result of weeks/months of heating (or at least lack of cold conditions). In this preceding period the sun was still very low. Also, early in the season reflectance is higher (ice flatter/whiter/no open ocean) so the sun is not really 'biting' yet. The dipole on the other hand pumps in lots of balmy air, and combined with windy conditions can transfer a lot of heat to the surface. (The 'windy' is very important for heat transfer - it mixes the cool surface air up with the rest and strips the natural insulating air layer from the ice).

When considering air flow into the arctic, the melt ponds looks like it is consistent with the dipole.

Thanks, Gerrit. I also wondered about which factor is most significant for May melt ponding: insolation or air temperature. The fact is, that even though anomalies can be quite high, the temp itself is still below freezing most of the time. Or at least it is during the first two weeks of May (as noticed on the Climate Reanalyzer forecast (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php)).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Phil. on May 07, 2014, 02:40:24 PM
Looking at the Barrow webcam and radar yesterday i noticed that the ice off Barrow itself had already broken up (unusually early).  What happened next on the animation was very interesting lots of floes came streaming in from the west crashing into the remaining ice off Point Barrow and appearing to disintegrate.  Looking at the webcam it appeared to be very windy, that seems to me to be a bad environment for melt ponding, a flat layer of thicker ice would be better.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 07, 2014, 03:04:01 PM
Hmm, has anyone got a graph to show the correlation (or otherwise) between April snow extent and October minimum?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 07, 2014, 03:22:41 PM
Does anyone know of a comprehensive measure for Arctic Ocean sub-sea ice water temperatures at a uniform depth? Say 5-20 meters?

A small sample, rather than "a comprehensive measure", can be found at the Woods Hole ice tethered profiler page: http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=20781)

By way of example, here's the temperature and salinity profiles from ITP 76 (http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=133996)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 07, 2014, 04:37:44 PM
Hmm, has anyone got a graph to show the correlation (or otherwise) between April snow extent and October minimum?

Do you mean the September minimum?

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJbDkGkZ.jpg&hash=1424fd4f4e2d2257532e5c9400dec47c)

The overall correlation is 0.45, but it's 0.63 from 1995 to 2013.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 07, 2014, 05:01:10 PM
Brainfart, yes I meant the September minimum (which the NSIDC reports in the October update).  What does the correlation look like if you detrend both series?  I guess what I'm actually asking is whether the April snow extent affects the September minimum independently of the fact that both are headed downwards.  If you have a worse-than-linear-trend snow extent, will it lead to a worse-then-linear-trend ice minimum?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 07, 2014, 05:26:47 PM
Brainfart, yes I meant the September minimum (which the NSIDC reports in the October update).  What does the correlation look like if you detrend both series?  I guess what I'm actually asking is whether the April snow extent affects the September minimum independently of the fact that both are headed downwards.  If you have a worse-than-linear-trend snow extent, will it lead to a worse-then-linear-trend ice minimum?

De-trending with a linear regression yields a much lower correlation overall, just 0.2. This consists of a -0.3 correlation from 1979-1994 and a +0.51 value for 1995 to 2013, which is statistically significant I believe.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 07, 2014, 06:59:31 PM
Maybe suggests a transition in regimes from MYI dominated (robust to weather-driven perturbations) to FYI dominated (at the mercy of "events")?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 07, 2014, 11:01:03 PM
Maybe suggests a transition in regimes from MYI dominated (robust to weather-driven perturbations) to FYI dominated (at the mercy of "events")?

Something I've been thinking as well, specifically via-a-vis not being as able to use previous system behavior as reliably in understanding the current system and making predictions about it.

I suspect it is much more than just the ice; there is a lot more energy available, and it seems the mechanics of movement of energy across the arctic have changed radically.  It's definitely not my grandparent's arctic.

So in some ways, I think we may be back to an empirical phase of research... We may not know enough about the "new" Arctic to even fully describe it, much less make quantitative predictions, and so may have to build new baseline data. Kinda reminds me of trying to change a tire on a moving car....

Qualitatively, we still know we can say coverage is going DOWN, and Arctic climate is becoming WARMER, but our ability to extrapolate short to mid-range accurately has become more of a dice roll.  Who could have predicted the low snow cover in Europe? 10-15+ Degree anomalies across most of the arctic? Outbreaks in NA?

Behavior has become far more chaotic.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Wipneus on May 08, 2014, 08:35:30 AM
One week in May. According to Jaxa L3 data the extent dropped by 340k and area 240k. Compared with 2013 extent is about 140k less and area is about equal.

These can be mostly attributed to the Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk on the Pacific and Baffin on the Atlantic side. The St.Lawrence is already "dry". The Barents sea ice had a small net increase.

Details:

#### EXTENT DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140506-20140429 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                    0.9                     0.0                    -2.9
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                    0.2                    12.9                   -25.9
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                 -118.7                    -1.7                    -5.9
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -3.2                   -12.6                    -3.3
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk            Total Extent
                 -112.3                   -65.2                  -337.7

#### AREA DIFFERENCE JAXA L3 10km 20140506-20140429 ####

           Arctic Basin       East Siberian Sea              Laptev Sea
                   19.6                    12.9                    -1.1
               Kara Sea             Barents Sea           Greenland Sea
                   -0.8                    21.8                   -22.4
Baffin/Newfoundland Bay            St. Lawrence              Hudson Bay
                  -86.8                    -1.8                   -13.6
   Canadian Archipelago            Beaufort Sea             Chukchi Sea
                   -7.7                   -20.6                     7.4
             Bering Sea          Sea of Okhotsk              Total Area
                 -100.9                   -48.2                  -242.4
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 08, 2014, 12:24:06 PM
De-trending with a linear regression yields a much lower correlation overall, just 0.2. This consists of a -0.3 correlation from 1979-1994 and a +0.51 value for 1995 to 2013, which is statistically significant I believe.
Quite a change, and expected one. It's obvious thick MYI is less affected by warmer-than-usual air and river runoff (due to lower albedo during high insolation months, caused by unusually low snow cover any given year) than thinner FYI. As Arctic gets more and more of the latter, it's only natural that snow cover correlates more and more to area and extent of sea ice.

I expect the trend to go on, as average sea ice thickness continue to decrease (i mean the general trend of course). Can you please calculate (same method you did to get numbers in the quote) the value for 2004...2013, and for 2009...2013? While very unreliable statistically, i'd still expect those values to go further higher than +0.51 over 1979...1994, from eyeballing the graph above. I wonder "how much" higher it'd be.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 08, 2014, 01:51:55 PM
Despite the high level of ice cover this year in the Great Lakes, the trend for the last 30 years has been lower ice cover. This has caused two things to occur. The lake levels are decreasing due to more water evaporation in the winter and precipitation levels around the Great Lakes has increased. 30 years ago this precipitation increase was in the form of snow and records were broken across the upper Great Lakes region. More and more of this precipitation is rain now.

I can't help but think this would also be the trend in the Arctic Ocean....more precipitation.....it remains to be seen if this will be in the form of snow but I think this would be the case.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 08, 2014, 01:54:19 PM
<i>Jdallen....

"Behavior has become far more chaotic."</i>

And this trend towards chaotic is possibly the only thing we can count on in the near future. Does this mean we could see increasingly wild swings in all of our metrics? (snow cover, ice cover etc.)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 08, 2014, 02:20:19 PM
Quite a change, and expected one. It's obvious thick MYI is less affected by warmer-than-usual air and river runoff (due to lower albedo during high insolation months, caused by unusually low snow cover any given year) than thinner FYI. As Arctic gets more and more of the latter, it's only natural that snow cover correlates more and more to area and extent of sea ice.

I expect the trend to go on, as average sea ice thickness continue to decrease (i mean the general trend of course). Can you please calculate (same method you did to get numbers in the quote) the value for 2004...2013, and for 2009...2013? While very unreliable statistically, i'd still expect those values to go further higher than +0.51 over 1979...1994, from eyeballing the graph above. I wonder "how much" higher it'd be.

You're right about them being higher, 2004-2013 is +0.60 and 2009-2013 is +0.74.

Using the this April's snow extent and year in a multiple regression (from 1979) in order to make a prediction, yields a value of 4.6million km2 +/- 410k
But if the same is done with the data since 2000 (so a steeper trend) the prediction is 3.52 million km2 +/- 300k.

Someone with a head for stats would do a better job with that though!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 08, 2014, 05:54:55 PM
<i>Jdallen....

"Behavior has become far more chaotic."</i>

And this trend towards chaotic is possibly the only thing we can count on in the near future. Does this mean we could see increasingly wild swings in all of our metrics? (snow cover, ice cover etc.)
A reasonable assumption, SH, and I think the correct one.  I will expand on it to hypothesize the extremes in variability will express themselves locally.  Examples this year would be the extended cold and snow in eastern North America, the paucity of snow across Europe, 10-15 degree positive temperature anomalies near Svalbard and in the Bering for much of the season, and the (near)  opposite across much of the CAA and Greenland.

A shishi odoshi comes to mind - the water feature found in some Japanese gardens. While not exactly chaotic, it does provide a nice metaphor for "tip over" that dominates much of my thinking about the current state of the arctic.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbkuWpUnQY0 (http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qbkuWpUnQY0)

In our case, the balance point is 273K. Our counterweight is the total volume of ice in the arctic.  Our flow is the input of energy into the environment.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 08, 2014, 06:06:46 PM
A shishi odoshi comes to mind - the water feature found in some Japanese gardens. While not exactly chaotic, it does provide a nice metaphor for "tip over" that dominates much of my thinking about the current state of the arctic.

In our case, the balance point is 273K. Our counterweight is the total volume of ice in the arctic.  Our flow is the input of energy into the environment.

Not sure if this link will work:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvvrmrUqrrI (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AvvrmrUqrrI)

particularly about 5:40 to 10:30 min into video

suggests 3 overlapping stable zones and current position is shown as worryingly close to jump to ice free branch.

That diagram seems to suggest you can only get to current middle stable zone from ice free world and you cannot get there from ice covered world. Is that right and if so why can't/don't you get a jump from ice covered to partial ice cover?

If video doesn't work, diagram is from Hoffman and Schrag 2002 The snowball Earthe hypothesis testing the limits of global change.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 08, 2014, 07:08:20 PM

Not sure if this link will work:

suggests 3 overlapping stable zones and current position is shown as worryingly close to jump to ice free branch.

That diagram seems to suggest you can only get to current middle stable zone from ice free world and you cannot get there from ice covered world. Is that right and if so why can't/don't you get a jump from ice covered to partial ice cover?
Great video!

Not quite how I'd interpret the diagram.  When shifting between the all ice to no ice states, you *will* pass through the middle zone.  The combination of CO2 and insolation determine if you can stay there.  Feed backs govern the rate of change.

It seems that by the presenter's conclusion, we have pushed CO2 high enough to force an inevitable transition to an ice-free state.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 08, 2014, 07:58:55 PM
Great video!

Not quite how I'd interpret the diagram.  When shifting between the all ice to no ice states, you *will* pass through the middle zone.  The combination of CO2 and insolation determine if you can stay there.  Feed backs govern the rate of change.

It seems that by the presenter's conclusion, we have pushed CO2 high enough to force an inevitable transition to an ice-free state.

The video is from MIT course 12.340 discussed at
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,731.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,731.0.html)

The narrator is (I think) Kerry Emanuel.

The commentary from ~9:02 min to 9:35 says

Quote
if, for example, we had a very slow-- order 180 00:08:58,260 --> 00:09:01,730 of a million-year scale-- variation in sunlight, 181 00:09:01,730 --> 00:09:04,260 or maybe carbon dioxide content. 182 00:09:04,260 --> 00:09:07,400 So if we start down here with the ice-covered planet, 183 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:10,240 and we increase CO2 or increase sunlight, 184 00:09:10,240 --> 00:09:12,800 we stay on this ice-covered branch 185 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:14,970 until we get to a tipping point. 186 00:09:14,970 --> 00:09:17,210 When the sunlight is so large-- or there's 187 00:09:17,210 --> 00:09:21,480 so much greenhouse effect from carbon dioxide-- 188 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,670 that the ice begins to melt, and a positive feedback 189 00:09:24,670 --> 00:09:27,170 of the albedo is so powerful-- in that case, 190 00:09:27,170 --> 00:09:31,630 that you would jump quite quickly up to the state 191 00:09:31,630 --> 00:09:34,340 where the Earth is completely free of ice.  192 00:09:34,340 --> 00:09:36,380 In other words, the ice melting would 193 00:09:36,380 --> 00:09:39,310 expose more land and ocean, would lower albedo, 194 00:09:39,310 --> 00:09:42,200 would absorb more sunlight, giving further warming, 195 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:44,370 and so on, until you got rid of the ice.

That seems in line with my interpretation of the diagram- you stay on the bottom stable line unless you go off the right edge when you jump straight to the top line.

Similarly you stay on the top stable line unless you go off the left edge when you jump to the partially iced middle stable line. You can jump off that intermediate stable line either way.

perhaps it is that "order of million-year scale-- variation [in sunlight]"
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Chuck Yokota on May 09, 2014, 01:00:28 AM
That diagram seems to suggest you can only get to current middle stable zone from ice free world and you cannot get there from ice covered world. Is that right and if so why can't/don't you get a jump from ice covered to partial ice cover?

As I understand it, the snowball Earth has such a high albedo that only a small part of the solar flux is absorbed by the Earth.  This makes the cold state very stable, and it would take a very high greenhouse gas forcing, many thousands of ppm, to break it out of that state.  Once it is broken out of the snowball state, that high greenhouse gas forcing, along with the Earth's decreasing albedo, pushes on to its new equilibrium state, which is at the ice-free world.

It is like a roller coaster climbing up to the top of its first peak, and rushing down the other side.  It cannot stop at the first dip, because its momentum (i.e. greenhouse forcing) is too high, so it rushes past it to the lower level.  Now if the roller coaster cars were stopped at the lower level,  you could push it backwards (negative forcing) past the lower peak, and it would settle down in the low point between the peaks.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 09, 2014, 12:49:57 PM

As I understand it, the snowball Earth has such a high albedo that only a small part of the solar flux is absorbed by the Earth.  This makes the cold state very stable, and it would take a very high greenhouse gas forcing, many thousands of ppm, to break it out of that state.  Once it is broken out of the snowball state, that high greenhouse gas forcing, along with the Earth's decreasing albedo, pushes on to its new equilibrium state, which is at the ice-free world.

It is like a roller coaster climbing up to the top of its first peak, and rushing down the other side.  It cannot stop at the first dip, because its momentum (i.e. greenhouse forcing) is too high, so it rushes past it to the lower level.  Now if the roller coaster cars were stopped at the lower level,  you could push it backwards (negative forcing) past the lower peak, and it would settle down in the low point between the peaks.

Yes I guess that makes sense.

The diagram actually indicates a level of ghg forcing of something like 120,000 ppm is needed (ie more than 10%). Approx a 300 fold increase from today's levels. Still I suppose that is only a little over 8 doublings of GHG level. 8 * sensitivity of 3C is enough for a 24C temperature increase.

The top alternative axis is approx 25% increase in effective solar constant. That would increase Earth's black body effective temperature from 255 to 269. Only a 14C increase or so. I guess that is in the same region and maybe rather than sensitivity of 3C perhaps I should exclude ice albedo feedback because that doesn't take effect til the jump. So GHG effect needed should be lower than 24C and the numbers are more consistent.

I guess the jump isn't instantaneous and if you reduced the GHG level from 120,000 ppm to 400ppm during the transition phase then this might be the equivalent of stopping your roller coaster in the first dip and it stays there.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Yuha on May 09, 2014, 12:58:37 PM
It is like a roller coaster climbing up to the top of its first peak, and rushing down the other side.  It cannot stop at the first dip, because its momentum (i.e. greenhouse forcing) is too high, so it rushes past it to the lower level.  Now if the roller coaster cars were stopped at the lower level,  you could push it backwards (negative forcing) past the lower peak, and it would settle down in the low point between the peaks.

I'm visualizing the graph as a landscape seen directly from above. The solid lines are valleys. A ball placed anywhere outside the valleys will start rolling towards one of the valleys. However, on its own the ball can only move vertically in the graph. A horizontal movement corresponds to a change in solar flux or CO2 level which is considered an external forcing in the model. The dashed lines connecting the solid lines are ridges in the landscape, the watersheds that decide the direction of the ball. Once the ball is in a valley, the only way it can leave is if a change in external forcing pushes it out of the end of the valley.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 09, 2014, 01:15:18 PM
A lead is now plainly visible in the pictures being beamed back from both NPEO webcams (http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2014/webcams1and2.html):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140509055222.jpg&hash=4fc4863ab7e6bce6a259b4f39ad47305)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM2%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam2_20140508172239.jpg&hash=ac035d1b2474d4053b5c5ef2d2414b1c)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 10, 2014, 12:37:16 PM
As discussed on the NorthWest Passage thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg25620.html#msg25620), Lancaster Sound seems to opening for business rather earlier than last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 10, 2014, 01:31:03 PM
As discussed on the NorthWest Passage thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg25620.html#msg25620), Lancaster Sound seems to opening for business rather earlier than last year:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#NW-Passage)

I guess, I don't understand this. Wasn't this area of Canada hit by the brutal and persistent cold that effected all of eastern NA this winter? I would think an area as protected as the  CA would have seen dramatic and thick ice formed.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 10, 2014, 02:37:34 PM
Could compare to 2010 and see Nares strait open and indications of NW passage more open at other end and signs of break past current point.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2010127.terra.4km (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2010127.terra.4km)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 10, 2014, 02:51:16 PM
I think the impression that the NWP is opening relatively quickly is only supported by the observation that the old cracked ice is being carried away by the currents. But for a continued opening new cracks should form, and they're still missing.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 10, 2014, 03:23:41 PM
the place where it's cracked and opened is the rise to the shallowest portion of the NWP, so over turning of currents occur by force here. it's rather a polynya than a result of direct melting, currents take the older ice like AmbiValent said.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 10, 2014, 04:59:37 PM
Barrow have climbed above the freeze point and will remain close to it the next days until the end of next week. There is also the possibilty for rain there and some wind which is bad for the ice.

While I won't focus on a new record season I primarily believe this year will make a good set up for the next years melt seasons. What I want to focus on right now is Berings sea and Chukchi sea. Both areas have been under the influence of a persistent high pressure that have brought warm and moist southerlies north. All that warm and salty water that have been pushed north should at some point take its toll on the ice there as ice with higher salinity is much more valnurable to melting.

Maybe someone have data for earlier years and may tell whether the sea ice extent in those areas are at record low to this date or not? 2006 and 2007 were obviously really bad years for Chukchi sea when I look at the years from Cryosphere today...

The other thing worth to look at is the Atlantic side northeast of Svalbard where the salinity is really high. Once the melting is kicking off we will probably see a really quick melt away there. This may be coming soon as the ice there is so thin...

The ECMWF forecast is rather interesting as it indicates some switch to a more favorable state for melting the ice. However, forecasts at 8-10 days forward are to be taken carefully. However, the ECMWF have been consistent with this forecast during the last 3 of 4 runs. In short, the forecast calls for a major high pressure to build in over the Siberian coast while a low pressure will have its place at the North American side. That will perhaps mean a lot of sun to the Russian side where the ice is thinnest and probably some polynyas forming. Central Siberia may also see really warm weather coming then which surely will have a blow on the snow cover... An interesting feature is that the Greenland High Pressure may be of such strength that it might bend a low pressure area somewhat west in the end of next week, just like with Sandy in 2012 but with the big difference that the low will cease to exist..

Finally, I bring a map showing what we might end up with if we are going to see good melting pattern through this season. Source of the head image map: ACFNS. My guess is the black line where I have looked at the current modelled ice thickness... And as some people may note, yes the North Pole is ice free in my guess... What are your guesses if you would make such a map? How would your lines be drawn?

Finally, my current guess is that we'll end up with a SIE somewhere in the range of 3,9-4,5 million km2 due to NSIDC numbers. After the presumed El Niño I would believe that either 2015 or 2017 will smash the record from 2012...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 10, 2014, 05:18:24 PM
Barrow have climbed above the freeze point and will remain close to it the next days until the end of next week. There is also the possibilty for rain there and some wind which is bad for the ice.

While I won't focus on a new record season I primarily believe this year will make a good set up for the next years melt seasons. What I want to focus on right now is Berings sea and Chukchi sea. Both areas have been under the influence of a persistent high pressure that have brought warm and moist southerlies north. All that warm and salty water that have been pushed north should at some point take its toll on the ice there as ice with higher salinity is much more valnurable to melting.

Maybe someone have data for earlier years and may tell whether the sea ice extent in those areas are at record low to this date or not? 2006 and 2007 were obviously really bad years for Chukchi sea when I look at the years from Cryosphere today...

The other thing worth to look at is the Atlantic side northeast of Svalbard where the salinity is really high. Once the melting is kicking off we will probably see a really quick melt away there. This may be coming soon as the ice there is so thin...

The ECMWF forecast is rather interesting as it indicates some switch to a more favorable state for melting the ice. However, forecasts at 8-10 days forward are to be taken carefully. However, the ECMWF have been consistent with this forecast during the last 3 of 4 runs. In short, the forecast calls for a major high pressure to build in over the Siberian coast while a low pressure will have its place at the North American side. That will perhaps mean a lot of sun to the Russian side where the ice is thinnest and probably some polynyas forming. Central Siberia may also see really warm weather coming then which surely will have a blow on the snow cover... An interesting feature is that the Greenland High Pressure may be of such strength that it might bend a low pressure area somewhat west in the end of next week, just like with Sandy in 2012 but with the big difference that the low will cease to exist..

Finally, I bring a map showing what we might end up with if we are going to see good melting pattern through this season. Source of the head image map: ACFNS. My guess is the black line where I have looked at the current modelled ice thickness... And as some people may note, yes the North Pole is ice free in my guess... What are your guesses if you would make such a map? How would your lines be drawn?

Finally, my current guess is that we'll end up with a SIE somewhere in the range of 3,9-4,5 million km2 due to NSIDC numbers. After the presumed El Niño I would believe that either 2015 or 2017 will smash the record from 2012...

I trust PIOMAS a whole lot more than HYCOM since in PIOMAS, ice usually thins dramatically before melting, while in HYCOM, many seasons have ice staying 2.5 or even 3 meters thick until observations force the model to 'melt' the ice. This is obviously unphysical and in my view, means HYCOM is simply not a credible model.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on May 10, 2014, 05:53:05 PM
'not credible' is too harsh - obviously it's useful for something or they wouldn't continue to calculate it. and as long as they continue to calculate it in the same way, you can use it to make interannual comparisons. it clearly isn't as accurate as piomas, but it's not as if piomas is perfect either
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on May 10, 2014, 06:49:06 PM
Finally, I bring a map showing what we might end up with if we are going to see good melting pattern through this season. Source of the head image map: ACFNS. My guess is the black line where I have looked at the current modelled ice thickness... And as some people may note, yes the North Pole is ice free in my guess... What are your guesses if you would make such a map? How would your lines be drawn?


My guess? Looking at current thicknesses (well, March PIOMASS gridded thicknesses, I don't think Wipneus has published his April one yet) this is my best best, assuming the weather is slightly more conducive to melting than last year. This, admittedly shouldn't be too hard.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F8GO0p.jpg&hash=48cb507da583d327057673e7382c9107)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 10, 2014, 07:01:43 PM
'not credible' is too harsh - obviously it's useful for something or they wouldn't continue to calculate it. and as long as they continue to calculate it in the same way, you can use it to make interannual comparisons. it clearly isn't as accurate as piomas, but it's not as if piomas is perfect either


 You can see for yourself that

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012051318_2012051500_035_arcticictn.001.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012051318_2012051500_035_arcticictn.001.gif)

shows 4 meter (!!!!) thick ice in the Beaufort Sea on May 15, 2012. In fact the model still had the ice more than 3 meters thick as late as July 20, 2012:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012071818_2012072000_035_arcticictn.001.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012071818_2012072000_035_arcticictn.001.gif)

Less than seven weeks later the ice is gone in that area that had supposedly 3, 3.5, even 4 meter thick ice:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012090418_2012090500_035_arcticictn.001.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn/nowcast/ictn2012090418_2012090500_035_arcticictn.001.gif)

 

I thought the context made clear that I meant "not credible when it comes to thickness". At least we know that HYCOM assigns 2.5 and 3+ (Even 4+)  meter thickness quite frequently to ice within weeks of melting (most dramatically in 2012 in the Beaufort, but also in other years and other regions). So the thickness it assigns to the ice north of Alaska is no reason to think it isn't going to melt easily in 3 months or so, which is the point I was trying to make in that earlier post.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 10, 2014, 07:11:21 PM
Finally, I bring a map showing what we might end up with if we are going to see good melting pattern through this season. Source of the head image map: ACFNS. My guess is the black line where I have looked at the current modelled ice thickness... And as some people may note, yes the North Pole is ice free in my guess... What are your guesses if you would make such a map? How would your lines be drawn?


My guess? Looking at current thicknesses (well, March PIOMASS gridded thicknesses, I don't think Wipneus has published his April one yet) this is my best best, assuming the weather is slightly more conducive to melting than last year. This, admittedly shouldn't be too hard.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F8GO0p.jpg&hash=48cb507da583d327057673e7382c9107)

I second your guess.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on May 11, 2014, 05:36:17 AM
Nightvid, we agree that piomas gives a better idea of average thickness than hycom does, and there's no need to look at previous hycom thickness maps to know that it often overestimates thickness. you did say 'in my view', suggesting that you were making a potentially controversial statement, and 'simply not a credible model' really is insulting to the professional scientists who developed it, even in the context of spontaneously disappearing 3 m thick ice. models are never perfect and therefore never fully credible. obviously you know that already, so I'll leave it here
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 11, 2014, 10:44:19 AM
Quote from: icefest link=topic=778.msg25728#msg25728 date=1399740546

... assuming the weather is slightly more conducive to melting than last year.
[/quote

*SLIGHTLY*?!

Sorry. Outside voice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 11, 2014, 11:06:31 AM
Wasn't the difference between HYCOM and PIOMAS models that PIOMAS was developed for modeling with accurate numbers (where real numbers may be higher or lower than modeled ones) while HYCOM was developed for shipping (where modeled numbers should display the worst possible condition in an area so that management and crew are properly warned)?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on May 11, 2014, 11:12:49 AM
jdallen, now i'm not sure how you understood me. 

Is surprise directed at the fact that last year was an abnormally melt-proof year. (i.e a euphemism for the astounding resistance to melt last year) or that my red line is far too small for if it is only slighter more conducive to melt. 

I meant the former, i.e. I assume the weather will be significantly more conducive to melting.

I apologise for my unclear grammar, I'm typing up a large block of text and my mind in "pretty english writing mode" ; a leftover from my essay writing times at school.

@AmbiValent, that's a reasonable train of thought, considering where funding for the two models comes from.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 11, 2014, 04:12:39 PM
Nightvid, we agree that piomas gives a better idea of average thickness than hycom does, and there's no need to look at previous hycom thickness maps to know that it often overestimates thickness. you did say 'in my view', suggesting that you were making a potentially controversial statement, and 'simply not a credible model' really is insulting to the professional scientists who developed it, even in the context of spontaneously disappearing 3 m thick ice. models are never perfect and therefore never fully credible. obviously you know that already, so I'll leave it here

Sorry if I came across as insulting. I was in a hurry and didn't double-check my post for politeness.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 11, 2014, 04:19:42 PM
Wasn't the difference between HYCOM and PIOMAS models that PIOMAS was developed for modeling with accurate numbers (where real numbers may be higher or lower than modeled ones) while HYCOM was developed for shipping (where modeled numbers should display the worst possible condition in an area so that management and crew are properly warned)?

I think HYCOM also doesn't incorporate melt ponds and thus the modeled ice thickness doesn't drop by much during the summer months until observations of ice edge cause the model to remove the ice in that area.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 11, 2014, 05:04:24 PM
I think HYCOM also doesn't incorporate melt ponds and thus the modeled ice thickness doesn't drop by much during the summer months.

Getting pedantic again, the OM in HYCOM stands for "ocean model". The sea-ice model portion of ACNFS is CICE. CICE version 5 includes the CPOM melt pond stuff, but I suspect ACNFS is still using version 4.1, which doesn't. ACNFS doesn't assimilate thickness in any way, shape or form. Finally some people, myself included, thinks CICE still needs another major upgrade before it can hope to successfully model the more mobile sea ice currently to be found in the Arctic. See for example:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,108.msg3352/topicseen.html#msg3352 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,108.msg3352/topicseen.html#msg3352)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Espen on May 11, 2014, 05:28:14 PM
Very unusual cracking pattern seen north of Fram Strait and Svalbard towards Bering Strait:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c04.2014131.aqua (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c04.2014131.aqua)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 11, 2014, 06:21:32 PM
Espen: the Ice is moving very fast through there. Combine that with the that, IMO (very uneducated), even the thick ice is really little more the slush (Ice Breakers have had a far easier time working in the Arctic then the Antarctic), it should be not too surprise to see ice conditions in the Fram in that state.
As a result of the export this early would it not be the case that you would see a slight increase in extent as the thicker ice thins out? Then afterward see a sharp decrease as things get empty?
Unless of course we see a major turn around to cold cloudier conditions combined with less heat coming in from the Pacific waters.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Gray-Wolf on May 11, 2014, 06:57:07 PM
Hi Espen!
I'd noticed that this morning and couldn't but wonder at it being last years floes forced to break free under drift/wind pressures? Most of it is thick ice and will prove quite a loss if the current rate of export continues ( check out how fast the expelled ice is melting off Greenland???).

The same ice conditions are apparent across the ice edge of barentsz meaning all the ice flushed into barentsz is also set for the drop?

In some ways I'm now thinking that 2013 was as big a 'Freak' as 07' in terms of impacts and if that is all that such an ice retention season can bring to the table then I do have real concerns for this years melt season?

Should a large Nino form then next year could prove the crunch year? ( prior to the earliest possible return of the 07' 'perfect melt storm' synoptics in 2017?).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Espen on May 11, 2014, 07:54:20 PM
Hi Gray-Wolf,

I don't recall a similar cracking pattern and not over such a large area over the years I followed the sea ice in the north. It will be very interesting to watch it further.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Andreas T on May 11, 2014, 08:01:00 PM
What that modis image shows is I guess confirmation of the situation shown in http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png). The shear of  the movement http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicespddrfnowcast.gif) pulls the ice apart.
How long will that movement continue and what drives it? Is it driven by wind? Do the leads which open, ridges which may form (its still pretty cold up there) give it more grip on the ice?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 11, 2014, 09:15:02 PM
Very unusual cracking pattern seen north of Fram Strait and Svalbard towards Bering Strait:

It's been looking much the same since the sunlight first allowed MODIS to "see" things North of 80 degrees:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#CAB)

This is from March 15th:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 11, 2014, 10:26:50 PM
Barrow seem to have the ice thickness buoy up and running again this season.  Bottom melt started there on or slightly before ~1st May.
http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel (http://seaice.alaska.edu/gi/observatories/barrow_sealevel)
http://amaru.gina.alaska.edu/data/graph/mbs_barrow/BRW_MBS.jpg?graph=Season-to-date (http://amaru.gina.alaska.edu/data/graph/mbs_barrow/BRW_MBS.jpg?graph=Season-to-date)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 11, 2014, 11:20:15 PM
Barrow seem to have the ice thickness buoy up and running again this season.

Thanks for the heads up Peter.

I'd swear that wasn't there a couple of weeks ago, the last time I glanced at it. Perhaps I was merely confused by the fact that it currently says "The Mass Balance Site was deployed on landfast sea ice in the Chukchi Sea at Barrow, Alaska on January 16-17, 2012"
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 12, 2014, 01:15:25 AM
jdallen, now i'm not sure how you understood me.


Sorry, Icefest; it was a rather clumsy attempt at humor, derived from the rather high winter temperatures across most the arctic.  I am generally in agreement with you.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 12, 2014, 12:30:32 PM
Quite a lot of melting in the southern Hudson Bay, which is to be expected at this time of year.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FemB9u2C.gif&hash=3aae4bb1821b25726f38972341d501b3)

This should last another 2 days at least, before some cooler air arrives to slow things down.


Something to keep an eye on is the storm arriving in the Barents/Kara/Laptev region on Wednesday
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpGyqNmn.png&hash=d86234e1ba065d750c4a6b0e451898e8)

It strengthens while moving into the Kara sea
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRTIC3rd.png&hash=7395bc07222debaa2c1fce2a104d196b)

And doesn't really die down significantly until Saturday
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdT9PET0.png&hash=5372e73c269d4ca72d3ff6a2361231f9)

Although it's a cold storm (unlike August 2012), it will be interesting to see how the mobile and thin pack copes with the winds.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 12, 2014, 01:13:22 PM
The cracks north of Svalbard that have been visible on the University of Hamburg AMSR2 (ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/) now extend to the Pole. Here's how things have progressed so far in May, plus a glimpse through yesterday's clouds from Aqua:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 12, 2014, 01:23:43 PM
BFTV, thanks for the forecast maps, polar vortex is still somewhat present at higher altitudes though. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Zwind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264)

But increasingly weather up there looks like dominated by polar or high latitude extratropical cyclones, much like last year. Once those get warm enough it's bye-bye arctic summer ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 12, 2014, 03:23:52 PM
BFTV, thanks for the forecast maps, polar vortex is still somewhat present at higher altitudes though. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Zwind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264)

But increasingly weather up there looks like dominated by polar or high latitude extratropical cyclones, much like last year. Once those get warm enough it's bye-bye arctic summer ice.

The strong stormy weather last year seemed to contribute to a  lower melt than in previous years? Shouldn't we expect a similar response from the ice if this year is also cold and stormy?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 12, 2014, 03:36:06 PM
BFTV, thanks for the forecast maps, polar vortex is still somewhat present at higher altitudes though. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Zwind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264)

But increasingly weather up there looks like dominated by polar or high latitude extratropical cyclones, much like last year. Once those get warm enough it's bye-bye arctic summer ice.

The strong stormy weather last year seemed to contribute to a  lower melt than in previous years? Shouldn't we expect a similar response from the ice if this year is also cold and stormy?

Yes, maybe I should've said 'if those get warm enough..', I don't know how far 2013 was from melt, but add some degrees more warmth to these systems and they might drop rain instead of sleet. But there was also the 2012 GAC which destroyed some ice but that was late in the season. Might I add that here is a good example, where a slight error in forecast temperature may change the outlook for a large area indeed.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 12, 2014, 05:09:41 PM
Inuvik (located on the east channel of the Mackenzie Delta) is forecast to be +18 °C later today, and +21 °C tomorrow:

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-30_metric_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-30_metric_e.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 12, 2014, 06:17:09 PM
Inuvik (located on the east channel of the Mackenzie Delta) is forecast to be +18 °C later today, and +21 °C tomorrow:

http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-30_metric_e.html (http://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nt-30_metric_e.html)
Good Grief!

While air to ice transfer of heat is fractional of that from sunlight... Quantity has its own quality...!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 12, 2014, 07:38:22 PM
Seems like really warm weather will blow over Chukchi and East siberian Sea sea in about 5 days.. Think we'll see a quick melt soon... Tomorrow, 13/5 marks the eariest day as the SIE according to JAXA have been below 12 million km2.. We''l probably not be able to do that this year. Next day to keep an eye at is 3/6 which is the earliest date the SIE have been below 11 million km2.. With warm weather during the second half of may it might be possible to make it...

//LMV
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 12, 2014, 08:16:42 PM
Thanks Jim, that is promising.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ghoti on May 12, 2014, 09:12:01 PM
The Kimmirut webcam shows 4.8C right now in bright sun. The road looks muddy.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Blizzard_of_Oz on May 13, 2014, 01:22:21 AM
This may be of amusement to some.
I have a sub-seasonal forecast going. Verified over the pas 18yrs, it beats an extent anomaly persistence forecast during the melt period, though not by a huge amount.
http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)
It is a statistical method (not a coupled ice-ocean model) and makes a direct forecast for 50-days in advance (no intermediate days are forecast). The images are updated around 9:30am (MDT). This is not an "official" forecast in any sense - it is my own side project.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FSEAICE%2Ffcst_apr_oct.gif&hash=fc6bc08e39689549b464c87dd19c81f7)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcires.colorado.edu%2F%7Easlater%2FSEAICE%2Fprob_map_reg_2014.gif&hash=bcff5df4ab12899776bf34451879d7df)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 13, 2014, 01:57:23 AM
Very nicely made, Andrew. Your website looked familiar to me, and then I recognized your NH snow cover graph (http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/NH_SNOW/) that I put on the Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: OSweetMrMath on May 13, 2014, 02:09:46 AM
Very interesting forecast. I'm curious about the 50 day forecast. Would it be possible to do longer forecasts (say, 75 days)? I could see the skill level falling as the forecast duration increases. Or was 50 just a convenient stopping point?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Blizzard_of_Oz on May 13, 2014, 04:30:44 AM
Very interesting forecast. I'm curious about the 50 day forecast. Would it be possible to do longer forecasts (say, 75 days)? I could see the skill level falling as the forecast duration increases. Or was 50 just a convenient stopping point?

Yes, skill level should decrease with lead time. I haven't worked over those runs yet... as with everything, I need more time.
I originally made a forecast about 50 days before going on a ship into the Arctic - and 50 days is the lead time on the last of the "SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook" for the year. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on May 13, 2014, 09:41:53 AM
That second chart is simply stunning!

I'm not sure about the validity of the forecast about Nares Straight though, :S
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 13, 2014, 10:31:14 AM
Rivalling the process near the Siberian side, it looks like the first melt ponds this season are appearing on floes in front of the Mackenzie Delta:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FBeaufortr05c02day13212052014_zps312e3ab4.jpg&hash=fba3bab94c32c0e1dd8f2961a470e589)

Zooming in on my CAD, I see hues of blue and grey appearing on the smallest pixel size of 250x250 m. Tuktoyaktuk and Shingle Point airstrip show 10-15 dC temps for yesterday.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 13, 2014, 10:58:00 AM
The American side of the Arctic is where the high pressure areas are, so it would make sense that the melt ponds are showing up there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Yuha on May 13, 2014, 11:21:51 AM
The river water melt spots in the fast ice in front of the McKenzie delta are appearing a week earlier than in 2012 and nearly two weeks earlier than in 2013.

I think we are headed towards an early melt in Beaufort and Chukchi, though a change in weather could still change that.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 13, 2014, 12:35:30 PM
This may be of amusement to some.

"Interesting" rather then "amusing" Andrew, thanks. I followed your recent presentation at the 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,803.0.html) with much interest too. Thanks to Larry Hamilton I even received a mention (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/forecast-me-not.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da00c6b970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da00c6b970d) there myself!

How effective do you suppose your methodology would be at predicting the September 2014 minimum this far out?!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 13, 2014, 02:16:07 PM
Rivalling the process near the Siberian side, it looks like the first melt ponds this season are appearing on floes in front of the Mackenzie Delta:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FBeaufortr05c02day13212052014_zps312e3ab4.jpg&hash=fba3bab94c32c0e1dd8f2961a470e589)

Zooming in on my CAD, I see hues of blue and grey appearing on the smallest pixel size of 250x250 m. Tuktoyaktuk and Shingle Point airstrip show 10-15 dC temps for yesterday.

These are not the first melt ponds of the season. The fast ice just off Tiksi, Russia started to get soggy on April 22:

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014112.terra.4km (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014112.terra.4km)

Closeup (area appears in bottom center of image):

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c05.2014112.terra (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c05.2014112.terra)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 13, 2014, 02:49:48 PM
The ice near O-Buoy #9 appears to be cracking:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#OBuoy9 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#OBuoy9)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 13, 2014, 03:16:12 PM
On melt ponds... Nightvid, hi,

You're right if every body of melt water on the ice is comprised. On 22 April Siberian rivers began dumping their run-off on and under the fast ice. It perfectly outlines the coastline where none is visible during the snowcover months.
Best seen on the rim of the Lena river.
On 12 May the same is happening at the mouth of the Mackenzie.

What I've been looking for is in situ melt on the ice floes within the pack ice. On that 'front', the first signs in the Beaufort Sea occur IIRC around the earliest dates in the record.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 13, 2014, 03:51:18 PM
BFTV, thanks for the forecast maps, polar vortex is still somewhat present at higher altitudes though. http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Zwind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/05/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-337.75,82.08,264)

But increasingly weather up there looks like dominated by polar or high latitude extratropical cyclones, much like last year. Once those get warm enough it's bye-bye arctic summer ice.

The strong stormy weather last year seemed to contribute to a  lower melt than in previous years? Shouldn't we expect a similar response from the ice if this year is also cold and stormy?

Yes, maybe I should've said 'if those get warm enough..', I don't know how far 2013 was from melt, but add some degrees more warmth to these systems and they might drop rain instead of sleet. But there was also the 2012 GAC which destroyed some ice but that was late in the season. Might I add that here is a good example, where a slight error in forecast temperature may change the outlook for a large area indeed.

Got it. I misread you. If increasing storminess is the new norm and these storms get progressively warmer in nature, it would seem they would eventually cause more melt, not less.

Thanks for the clarification.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 13, 2014, 07:34:36 PM
The DMI is for only the second time this year showing temperatures somewhat below normal around 80-90N . Interestingly, this time is virtually exactly the same time at year as the weather made a major swung last year bringing persistently cold weather during the rest of the melting season... The big question is whether this pattern will repeat this year. The GFS latest run  (12z) forecast a pattern dominated by low pressures the next 5 days. In the end of the period, about 6 days ahead there are some hints of a stabilizing weather pattern...

In the short term the area that will get the biggest blow is the Berings sea and Chukchi sea..

In the real long term, around 228-288 hours there is a possibility of a heat dome to be pushed the whole way to Svalbard given that a major high pressure area would be established in the northern part of Europe.. Such long range forecasts always need to be taken very carefully.. But it's interesting to speculate  ;D

Finally, the archipelago of Hudson Bay seems to may be start to melt quickly next week if the forecast for about 10C stands..

That's all folks! ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Blizzard_of_Oz on May 13, 2014, 07:43:09 PM
How effective do you suppose your methodology would be at predicting the September 2014 minimum this far out?!

I expect it would give a rather poor forecast as there is not enough distinguishing signal in the concentration data. I am in the process of making the skill vs lead time plot.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 13, 2014, 08:04:23 PM
I am in the process of making the skill vs lead time plot.

That sounds very interesting too. Would you mind if I reposted one or more of your graphs over on the GWC "unusual Arctic graphs" page?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#Extent (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#Extent)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 13, 2014, 11:00:01 PM
It's a little way off (8-10 days), but given the agreement between the GFS and the ECM, the pattern below is worth keeping an eye on.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmp1.met.psu.edu%2F%7Efxg1%2FECMWF_12z%2Ftest8.gif&hash=bb475651edc8bc8d0c0e821eee9710b4)

Moscow is forecast to have record high temperatures next week, so there will be an awful lot of surface heat in western Russia. The pattern above has a high risk of directing that heat into the Barents, Kara and/or Central Arctic as the upper ridge (in red/orange) pushes into Scandinavia and the Barents sea.
Several of the GFS ensemble memebers show this happening around day 8-10 to various degrees.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FJeRySnD.png&hash=312096577aae491fb6b032ff4fcb2e34)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FPEXYXy1.png&hash=6e6d52938d4eaa8ed5f7b37da7bc916e)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FTMas7jw.png&hash=115825d8411930e9963c0d0fb3abdfec)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FC6WNorw.png&hash=35b3d3d8dc18ed3ba1c4f1473745cbcd)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 13, 2014, 11:07:01 PM
I'm seeing a bit of a dipole on the ECMWF weather forecast maps, and because it's May, I'm a bit obsessed now with thinking about what it all means for melt ponds. One would think they will develop a lot over the Beaufort and Chukchi in the coming 10 days. That's where a lot of the thick ice has been pushed to this winter...

But temps are low, just like last year, like Lord M Vader remarked.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 14, 2014, 12:09:20 AM
I'm seeing a bit of a dipole on the ECMWF weather forecast maps, and because it's May, I'm a bit obsessed now with thinking about what it all means for melt ponds. One would think they will develop a lot over the Beaufort and Chukchi in the coming 10 days. That's where a lot of the thick ice has been pushed to this winter...

But temps are low, just like last year, like Lord M Vader remarked.

The anomalies of 2m (surface) temperature seem to be dominated by positive values over at Climate Reanalyzer for the next 7 days in the Arctic:   http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/ (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/)

which I would think is more relavent than 850 mb temperatures which have very little direct effect on the snow or ice.

 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 14, 2014, 08:48:27 AM
Fair enough, Nightvid, but do the anomalies exceed the 0 °C mark?

If I look at the latest DMI 2m SAT map...

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0XYWv18zjlw/U3MRGwvYs_I/AAAAAAAABrw/16BKP3giTjY/s446/temp_latest.big.png)

...I don't see temps go above 0 °C anywhere but Beaufort, Barentsz and Chukchi. This will probably change in the second half of May, and maybe that's when most of that crucial melt ponding occurs.

If there is any melt ponding right now, it must be happening in the areas where skies are clear.

Here are average SLP patterns for the last week (edit: woops, no, that's the latest SLP patterns map for the 11th of May, I can generate the average map for 7th-12th tomorrow):

(https://d3800158-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/SLP20140507-12.gif?attachauth=ANoY7crjkXvQcX11LsPlFvMhRYiVZMmtsf08LZ_USeOd9rL4aOWb7brGDJ9ZlooY3ioqn_rGFHjoLKsdHUXr4YNN4peTKC5gF7qwGqqwQGzetw0B8aik3SRghmNGt0xJZOX6TDVb6ri45udHjvpxNLWnYYWK8j4DAm9-TfKTfW6_2Nm_USFXIsWl8QTxA_zj7MtJuqTGZrtuAUIDLX5mgSHv_817hkUo3UZImainN8xXsjt15bnwCXpZEFjS_GXHKiMcDLuV5ot2&attredirects=0)

Compare it to previous years here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may).

ECMWF (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html) has highs starting to dominate big time in a week or so. Forecast is a bit far out, so too early to tell, but could be important.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 14, 2014, 11:35:12 AM
I have a sub-seasonal forecast going. Verified over the pas 18yrs, it beats an extent anomaly persistence forecast during the melt period, though not by a huge amount.

Thanks for the PM Drew. Here's what I've come up with:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SPIE (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-graphs/#SPIE)

Please let me know if you'd like any changes made.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 14, 2014, 12:13:04 PM
This may be of amusement to some.
I have a sub-seasonal forecast going. Verified over the pas 18yrs, it beats an extent anomaly persistence forecast during the melt period, though not by a huge amount.
http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)
It is a statistical method (not a coupled ice-ocean model) and makes a direct forecast for 50-days in advance (no intermediate days are forecast). The images are updated around 9:30am (MDT). This is not an "official" forecast in any sense - it is my own side project.

I think using Cryosphere Today area is better than extent persistence.

See
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/problematic-predictions-2.html (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2013/07/problematic-predictions-2.html)

where Rob Dekker uses 3 factors: land snow extent, extent and (extent-area)
if you apply factors as follows:
0.25 * Snow + 0.5 * Extent - 1.0 * (Extent - Area)

then this formula expressed in simple factors is:
0.25 * Snow - 0.50 * Extent + 1.0 * Area

so extent ends with a negative correlation whereas area has a positive correlation (and is given a larger factor).

I think this does quite a bit better than extent persistence for predicting the minimum. While I don't know about 50 days ahead I could imagine that the same might apply.

I don't know if this does anything to persuade you to use CT area and perhaps land snow extent more and extent less?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 14, 2014, 12:48:58 PM
Eh?

At 70HPa and at 10HPa, the circumpolar vortex, which is well above the polar vortex at 250HPa has either disappeared completely, or is flowing very faintly in the wrong direction...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270)

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270)

I presume that this is not a sign that the earth's rotation has reversed, but it surprises me.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 14, 2014, 02:45:39 PM
...
I presume that this is not a sign that the earth's rotation has reversed, but it surprises me.
Reversing Earth's rotation in any short (in terms of human life) amount of time - would result in complete melt of the Earth's crust, among other things... Vortexes would be gone. Oceans too. Surface temps possibly several thousands kelvins at the peak. Angular momentum preservation law, you know... %)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 14, 2014, 06:33:14 PM
Eh?

At 70HPa and at 10HPa, the circumpolar vortex, which is well above the polar vortex at 250HPa has either disappeared completely, or is flowing very faintly in the wrong direction...

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/70hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270)

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/10hPa/orthographic=-325.33,92.33,270)

I presume that this is not a sign that the earth's rotation has reversed, but it surprises me.

It surprises me to, and suggests consistent temperatures at altitude, and as a result, the altitude the pressure gradient rests on is similarly consistent.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on May 14, 2014, 07:47:43 PM
"These cold-core low-pressure areas strengthen in the winter and weaken in the summer due to their reliance upon the temperature differential between the equator and the poles"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 14, 2014, 10:03:08 PM
"These cold-core low-pressure areas strengthen in the winter and weaken in the summer due to their reliance upon the temperature differential between the equator and the poles"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex)

Weaken yes, but disappear entirely?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 14, 2014, 10:57:03 PM
Blizzard of Oz,

Thanks, very useful.

I really must pull my finger out and have another look at prediction....
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Csnavywx on May 14, 2014, 11:42:42 PM
"These cold-core low-pressure areas strengthen in the winter and weaken in the summer due to their reliance upon the temperature differential between the equator and the poles"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_vortex)

Weaken yes, but disappear entirely?

The stratospheric vortex disappears, yes.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 14, 2014, 11:45:10 PM
The Euro is brutal.  Just brutal to the arctic the rest of May.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 14, 2014, 11:46:16 PM
Fair enough, Nightvid, but do the anomalies exceed the 0 °C mark?

If I look at the latest DMI 2m SAT map...

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0XYWv18zjlw/U3MRGwvYs_I/AAAAAAAABrw/16BKP3giTjY/s446/temp_latest.big.png)

...I don't see temps go above 0 °C anywhere but Beaufort, Barentsz and Chukchi. This will probably change in the second half of May, and maybe that's when most of that crucial melt ponding occurs.

If there is any melt ponding right now, it must be happening in the areas where skies are clear.

Here are average SLP patterns for the last week (edit: woops, no, that's the latest SLP patterns map for the 11th of May, I can generate the average map for 7th-12th tomorrow):

(https://d3800158-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/SLP20140507-12.gif?attachauth=ANoY7crjkXvQcX11LsPlFvMhRYiVZMmtsf08LZ_USeOd9rL4aOWb7brGDJ9ZlooY3ioqn_rGFHjoLKsdHUXr4YNN4peTKC5gF7qwGqqwQGzetw0B8aik3SRghmNGt0xJZOX6TDVb6ri45udHjvpxNLWnYYWK8j4DAm9-TfKTfW6_2Nm_USFXIsWl8QTxA_zj7MtJuqTGZrtuAUIDLX5mgSHv_817hkUo3UZImainN8xXsjt15bnwCXpZEFjS_GXHKiMcDLuV5ot2&attredirects=0)

Compare it to previous years here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may).

ECMWF (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html) has highs starting to dominate big time in a week or so. Forecast is a bit far out, so too early to tell, but could be important.

Those temperatures are near average if not slightly above on the Pacific side of the North Pole, despite being below freezing. The long range forecasts at this point are anything but a repeat of 2013. Almost all the models now seem to point to a building "heat wave" over the Arctic by the 23rd or 24th. Serious melt ponds should form in the central Arctic in the last week of the month, so the average for the month can be expected to come out like non-2013 recent years, I think.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 15, 2014, 12:47:04 AM
OK, so here's the average SLP map for May 7th-12th:

(https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/SLP20140507-12.gif?height=130&width=130)

Compare to other years here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 15, 2014, 03:43:42 AM
OK, so here's the average SLP map for May 7th-12th:

Compare to other years here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may).

I'll be blessed... if I can see any sort of pattern which reliably relates to the state of the ice at the end of the season, or even one that ties back reliably to temperatures north of 75 degrees.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 04:37:09 AM
The 7th thru 12th was a dipole.

It's been a dipole pattern for about 2 months which is why extent is already so low.

I think we are 100 percent surely going to stay above 2013.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 15, 2014, 06:26:44 AM
The 7th thru 12th was a dipole.

It's been a dipole pattern for about 2 months which is why extent is already so low.

I think we are 100 percent surely going to stay above 2013.

Higher extent and area than 2013?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 06:38:40 AM
The 7th thru 12th was a dipole.

It's been a dipole pattern for about 2 months which is why extent is already so low.

I think we are 100 percent surely going to stay above 2013.

Higher extent and area than 2013?

I worded that wrong.  Obviously I meant below 2013.

In fact I am seeing a large region of open water about to open up over the ESB region.

Winds are terrible thru at least day 3-4.

If the Euro is right.  We are going to see record low extent and area the last part of May.  Could be unreal honestly with the pack mobility and euro pattern there would be open water on May 25th from the Mackenzie Delta to the Laptev around the shoreline.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2F201405%2FAM2SI20140514IC0.png%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2F201405%2FAM2SI20140514IC0.png%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=fa36db6c68c73d43e3c86d3d4c995335)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 15, 2014, 08:40:39 AM
OK, so here's the average SLP map for May 7th-12th:

Compare to other years here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may).

I'll be blessed... if I can see any sort of pattern which reliably relates to the state of the ice at the end of the season, or even one that ties back reliably to temperatures north of 75 degrees.

Well, the idea is that the melt pond cover fraction in May correlates strongly with the minimum. We unfortunately don't have near real-time data that can be compared to previous years. My assumption is that most melt ponding during May occurs under high pressure areas, because that's where most of the insolation and high(er) temperatures are.

It's difficult to make out the differences when you look at the SLP Patterns page (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may) for May, but take a look for instance at 2010. That's the year of the volume crash. 2011 and 2012 also show splotches of red, as does 2013, with the difference that the latter has the first persistent cyclone rolling in right towards the end of the month.

If you then click to the SLP Patterns page (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/june) for June and look at the first two weeks, you might start to see the pattern.

But you have to want to see it, like I do.  :P ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 15, 2014, 08:44:28 AM
If the Euro is right.  We are going to see record low extent and area the last part of May.  Could be unreal honestly with the pack mobility and euro pattern there would be open water on May 25th from the Mackenzie Delta to the Laptev around the shoreline.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2F201405%2FAM2SI20140514IC0.png%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2F201405%2FAM2SI20140514IC0.png%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=fa36db6c68c73d43e3c86d3d4c995335)

Yes, according to ECMWF/Euro the Dipole will restrengthen. Still, the lows are a bit more dominant, pushing the highs back towards the North-American coast (I'm looking at things right now, with melt ponds in mind only). Either way, extent and area are probably going to keep falling steadily and be amongst the lowest trend lines for the date of year.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 15, 2014, 08:55:14 AM
Ah, you mean this, Friv:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FECMWFwe14052014120hsmall_zps56a858ea.jpg&hash=56b590322f30bb782164a57c05ddfce0)

It is ECMWF prognosis Wednesday 1405 for next Monday. The most pronounced of a typical set-up within the 10-day forecast. I drew the ridges and troughs roughly; the ridge over Bering really pushes deep into the Arctic.
It could be called ‘a dipole’ as the basic lower atmosphere steering is Bering-Fram. As it has been for weeks. Still, it is a long route and the sun hasn’t warmed the Arctic strong enough yet. Thus, it becomes anomalous cold for the time of the year above 80dN, especially near Svalbard/Frantsa Yosefa.

As it is, there’s enough potential on the Bering side for major ice loss during the summer months.

I don’t see a major anomalous opening Mackenzie-Laptev within the next 10 days. Though on some days, when strong S winds are projected NW of Wrangel Island, there may be strong extent loss in the Chukchi Sea. The Bering Strait might open up early this season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 09:13:49 AM
The winds are still more important then say a bit more insolation because this continuous wind field

Here is the Euro on day 10.  Way out there but the arctic is being totally torched hardcore.  And that is on day 10 with heavy climo bias having temps colder than reality would then.


Since early March it's been literally a perfect storm of ice loss for the arctic setting up for a potentially monstrous ice loss Summer.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDFSgmEQ.gif&hash=88c6198b1df2122b715e0dca1771fa9d)


About two months ago the dipole pattern took over.  The damage to the ice pack isn't done justice below.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FdnaHGbP.gif&hash=1960c0c401660f4164cc87f29935c087)





1.  The ice moving from the lower salinity Pacific towards the Atlantic causes the entire pack to naturally thin.

2.  MYI has been flushed big time.  Not just the last two months but overall it was a bad Oct-May for MYI even with a couple good wind months.

3.  And most importantly:


There is hardly any open water right now.  But the ice pack has moved tremendously the last two months.

Obviously up until the last week or so new ice has formed to fill in those gaps.  But that ice is thinner than the older FYI. 

On top of that quite a bit was during April when the new ice wouldn't grow very fast.  And the new ice wouldn't have snow on it or very little since it doesn't snow that much this time of year up there.



What is worse is that this wind pattern shows no signs of leaving.  Now there is no new ice made and large regions of open water are about to open up.  The first big one appears to be the ESB region.  Models show off shore winds for a while.  Long fetch winds and eventually in 4 days are so a big warm up.  Even tho the current warm up there is plenty to prevent any new ice and even start some surface snow melt with the powerful sun.

Because of this if we keep a solid dipole into June I have zero doubts we will see 2014 plummet into unprecedented territory in terms of extent/area.







Here is SLP anomalies back to March 10th:  That is very bad news going forward.  That shows flushing has been very anomalously high.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F24Z5syo.gif&hash=5a9aaaea5b8425780de45db0279049d2)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 09:23:50 AM
Ah, you mean this, Friv:

It is ECMWF prognosis Wednesday 1405 for next Monday. The most pronounced of a typical set-up within the 10-day forecast. I drew the ridges and troughs roughly; the ridge over Bering really pushes deep into the Arctic.
It could be called ‘a dipole’ as the basic lower atmosphere steering is Bering-Fram. As it has been for weeks. Still, it is a long route and the sun hasn’t warmed the Arctic strong enough yet. Thus, it becomes anomalous cold for the time of the year above 80dN, especially near Svalbard/Frantsa Yosefa.

As it is, there’s enough potential on the Bering side for major ice loss during the summer months.

I don’t see a major anomalous opening Mackenzie-Laptev within the next 10 days. Though on some days, when strong S winds are projected NW of Wrangel Island, there may be strong extent loss in the Chukchi Sea. The Bering Strait might open up early this season.

The difference between now and the last few months is new ice formation to mask the thicker ice loss.

The winds now will just push the MYI towards oblivion and the open water on the other side of the wind field where the winds blow off shore can't freeze back up now without a major cold and cloudy pattern which isn't the case.

The wind field orientation has slide so that the ESB will experience the off shore winds and not the Beaufort or Laptev.

There is a lot of room for the ice to move away from the ESB fast ice and towards the pole/Atlantic.

This is the new 00z euro from hour 48 to hour 240.  It is atrocious.

The next two days not seen below are bad as well wind wise, I will get to that.

But the animation shows the winds being bad.  Then a powerful large cyclone sliding  into the central arctic sorounded by strong HPs causing a big wind gradient.  This is not cold core so warm air will wrap thru the arctic with no cold pool forming.  In fact the cold pool collapses as the SLP weakens and a new one reforms over the Kara while a huge ridge takes over and starts the baking.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3cQc0Lu.gif&hash=5f7c2ab1217d94bb35a85195c3fff267)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 15, 2014, 09:33:24 AM
The 7th thru 12th was a dipole.

It's been a dipole pattern for about 2 months which is why extent is already so low.

I think we are 100 percent surely going to stay above 2013.

A dipole in Spring usually helps keep extent higher by increasing export thus bolstering ice in the peripheral areas around the Atlantic side.
It's when things really begin to warm up and the exported ice can no longer be replaced by thin nilas, as well as heat from the nearby continents getting dragged in, that it begins to have a strong, negative affect on extent.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 09:39:58 AM

Here are wind streamlines from the GFS for 00z tonight then 24hrs, 48hrs, and 72hrs.

I know they are rough on the eyes but I like using a model up to date as the source versus the products out there that do not come from the GFS or Euro.




Right now we can see winds are blowing off shore over parts of the ESB region. Signs of this are already showing up on Jaxa and this is just the start.  I haven't seen direct off shore winds in the ESB like this before.  At least not in Mid to late May.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpDSn00h.gif&hash=27dd1589a23cbc1756bef80551674e84)


Day 1 we can see it's still blowing off shore quite well and wide and there is another SLP moving East over the Laptev that is stronger then the first one.  It also reinforces the wind field with not only stronger winds but much warmer air.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F%5Burl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs2H5Uf9.gif%5Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fs2H5Uf9.gif%5B%2Furl%5D&hash=60c4ec78a9af05b6e3d37957922b89af)


By day 2 there is a what a 1000 mile wide area of off shore winds from Tiksi to the Bering?  Even the Alaskan side has a big of off shore and that area has already been bombarded.  That is a huge windfield.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfEbEvFp.gif&hash=3d265626986984d76e1fb496fe8c4080)


By day 3 the winds are veering in the Laptev region heading towards the ESB because the SLP is ejecting towards the central arctic.

Even so the entire ESB has a very long fetch of off shore winds originating in the North Pacific.  with winds veering around the SLP and getting stronger it will even help clear out more ice between the Laptev and ESB.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmSmf0MD.gif&hash=02c356759c0dc03dec4020430e7fed83)



That is just the next 72 hours.





Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 09:45:57 AM
The 7th thru 12th was a dipole.

It's been a dipole pattern for about 2 months which is why extent is already so low.

I think we are 100 percent surely going to stay above 2013.

A dipole in Spring usually helps keep extent higher by increasing export thus bolstering ice in the peripheral areas around the Atlantic side.
It's when things really begin to warm up and the exported ice can no longer be replaced by thin nilas, as well as heat from the nearby continents getting dragged in, that it begins to have a strong, negative affect on extent.

I agree.  That is how it would normally be.  However in this case the Barents is still way below normal.  And the Bering is already just about ice free.

The Chukchi already has a large area of open water which is the largest there on record passing 2010 at this point.  There is no sign of that area freezing up or getting smaller only slowly getting bigger.

But as seen in the model runs above and wind charts the ESB side is going to really get the smack down with it's pack ice pushed off shore potentially a lot over a large region.

We can see the first signs with a relatively big area of open water. 

I think we are going to see unprecedented ice loss by June 1st if the euro is right.

There will be an amazingly large area of open water on the ESB/Chukchi side.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu%2Fseaice%2Fdata%2F201405%2FAM2SI20140514IC0.png&hash=1b5d8749afcc5fb4f61d09c19b32817d)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 15, 2014, 10:26:47 AM
...
The Chukchi already has a large area of open water which is the largest there on record passing 2010 at this point.  There is no sign of that area freezing up or getting smaller only slowly getting bigger. ...
What about cloud cover there? Non-existent, or?

By the way, there is one thing i was always thinking about how Arctic ocean absorbs sunlight, which might be relevant here and now. See, at this time of the year, the Sun is quite very low over horizon there, for most of every 24-hours period. Thus, sunlight approaches the water surface having very small angle to it. The water surface would reflect most (all?) of it IF it'd be 100% plain - in reality this is not the case, because there are waves. And then, much depends on how big waves are, and what  their form is. If it's low, "long", not any steep waves - then much of sunlight would still be reflected at the air/water boundary. But if it's high, steep, "short" waves - then most of sunlight would get through into water, and much of sunlight won't have its angle changed any much. Which means, photons will keep going underwater having rather small angle - i.e. almost horizontally. And this seems important to me, because this means most of those photons will end up absorbed by near-surface layer of water, thus warming it up (as opposed to near-equator areas, where much (most?) of photons which get into water - would in fact travel dozens meters deep before being absorbed, thus heating near-surface layer (few meters) much more slowly.

It's all from basic geometry and optics, nothing extraordinaire, but i wonder if we have such very basic considerations actually accounted for in all the models... I have a lurking suspicion we do not, - instead, quite a number of models using numerical "tweaks" to adjust for observed in past years dynamics. If so, then such models will grow progressively incorrect as we get more and more cases of large-enough open water areas insolated by mostly-very-low-over-horizon sun.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 15, 2014, 10:27:18 AM
Friv, you really stamp it on our foreheads....Lighten up, Francis... ha!

But that is a wonderful tool you got yourself through GFS wind streamlines!
My ECMWF pic above doesn't represent it as dramatic, but I think you're right.
Wetteronline shows anomalous high temp forecasts for the end of May, all over from mackenzie right up to Tiksi. barrow in line with 5-6 dC + and Tiksi into the 14-16 + dC!
Wrangel Island and Ostrov Kotel'nyi also end of freeze period.

We'll see, it's going to be really interesting!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 15, 2014, 10:37:25 AM
Illustrating developments on the Bering side:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FLMr06c03day134detKotzebueBay14052014_zpsf76efeec.jpg&hash=bdeb02881bd021eb849f010f339c45e5)

Detail from LM r06c03 yesterday; extensive melt ponding on Kotzebue Sound, NW Alaska, part of larger Chukchi Sea.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 15, 2014, 10:45:44 AM
Is this the sort of thing you had in mind Friv?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 15, 2014, 10:56:45 AM
Sorry Friv, saw Jim's post first...
Yes, Jim, that's where the action is/will be. From my post on the blog 12 May:

"Though there are no melt ponds in vue yet, the severe cracking over most of the tile area does seem to indicate a quality that is weeks ahead/worse than last year..."

Today it shows progressively worse.
When the trend Friv has written about comes true, this tile will be the one to watch...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 01:00:12 PM
Lol, my bad on the ADD posting style.  When I get excited I just go off.

Yeah that's the region.  The winds ramped up yesterday over the Eastern Laptev we can see the largest movement by that Island between the ESS and Laptev.

With HP sprawling from Alaska to Eastern Siberia locked essentially in place The SLPs can't move any further East.

They are moving from Russia across the arctic basin to the CA.  I have like most of you guys follow the arctic daily.

Since 2011 I can't recall this kind of long fetch direct off shore winds in the ESS.


The 06z gfs shows 20 to 25kt winds blowing from the Siberia shore into the arctic basin. This wind field continues all the way to Canada at 15kt+.

This goes on for 24 hrs before weakening to 10-15kt.


Then ramps up after 40 hrs again and is an even wider wind field.

I can't see any reason why we won't see a 50 mile wide+ area of open water emerge the next 3 days in this area

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 01:09:50 PM
The timing is the worst part.

It's just late enuf in Spring that any open water can't freeze up and the ice pack has already been moving away from the pacific side for months. 

There is so much room for it to move right now.




On top of that the fast ice is in place so the winds will be much worse then directly coming off land cause of friction.   
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 01:20:34 PM
Not to forget Siberian snow cover is way below normal over Eastern Siberia already the models also show it's obliteration.

We all know how big of an impact the snow albedo feedback creates.

Snow vanishes albedo plummets, ground warms and thaws and darkens.  Albedo drops more.

So we see that daily 450W/m2 go from having 60-70% reflected back and the rest melting snow to 30% reflected back and the rest going to warming/evaporation.

Then it's quickly down to 15% and Siberia is rocking very warm temps .

We saw the power of this in late July 2012 when The Beaufort had 20-25c temps blowing off land into to arctic basin.

3-4 meter thick ice was melted in a couple weeks.

As we go on the warmth will come on stronger earlier and earlier
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 15, 2014, 01:56:29 PM
...
As we go on the warmth will come on stronger earlier and earlier
Of course. It's been few years since Maslowski et al, Wadhams and few other researchers independently predicted nearly ice-free Arctic by 2016 +-2 (some, +-3) years. The less ice there is, the faster melt goes. And now we just see what was well expected, if you'd ask me.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Fgreenland-today%2Ffiles%2F2013%2F08%2FFig2a_greenland_melt_area_201220131.png&hash=9d5ff2f2b766761f8595c1ba47ff5c51)

"Details" are still quite important; some, at least. Here's a nice picture which (i believe) shows Greenland high-altitude surface melt during 2012 and 2013. Just note that the punctured line - the average - includes melt figures of 2000s (up to 2010); i believe, should this "baseline average" be instead drawn using, say, 1979...1999, - then it'd be well below 20% at its max point, even. And now, if 2014 will be similar or worse than 2012 (in terms of ice cover - which apparently is quite likely, reading this topic), then i'd say this graph will have a new high this year. And this means alot to sea level rise at very least, feeds back to Arctic ice cover dynamics (Greenland melt waters are very low salinity, i believe?), etc etc. Give Greenland many enough warm-enough years, and it may even shed some catastrophically large melt-water+ice pulse when its structure (and especially its bottom) is weakened enough by all those under-ice "rivers" and "lakes" of melt water. Poor Norwegia could possibly get a wave in compare to which recent Japan tsunami would seem a harmless joke, eh... Not just Norwegia, too. But it won't help if we don't even manage to understand what's going on; to this end, everyone in here - including you - are doing an important thing writing good thinking and observation in here. You guys sure have my gratitude, at very least!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 04:31:51 PM
Here is jaxa from two days ago and yesterday showing the first open water in the ESS region.

We will get an update later today of the Russian side.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FiOSZFsb.gif&hash=a8fea2c6312d4710970099952a0d6883)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 15, 2014, 06:28:43 PM
P-Maker called attention to this site to me. I am no weatherman, but combining these 3 I believe, really gives you a picture of heat coming up from Siberia, the Bering, between Labrador and Greenland, then up the Scandinavian coast hugging the coast until it hits the wind coming from Siberia.Those coast lines are going to get hit hard IMHO depending upon how long those systems hold and the main blocking point seems to be the new norm Greenland.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-70.89,66.30,449)
On top of that you seem to have some very warm water coming up the Scandinavian coast going toward the Fram.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-15.14,70.16,984 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-15.14,70.16,984)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 15, 2014, 07:09:46 PM
You can also see some bad coastal weather combine these current motion images.
http://arctic.ssec.wisc.edu/data/view-data.php?action=view_animation&product=noaa/IR-loop-L (http://arctic.ssec.wisc.edu/data/view-data.php?action=view_animation&product=noaa/IR-loop-L)
Click sports on map gives wind speed and power
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)

This gives real time (withing a few hours) picture of the jet stream
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 15, 2014, 07:41:28 PM
Someone was mentioning that Bering strait might be open unusually early this year. This image is from three days ago:

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2014133.terra.1km (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2014133.terra.1km)

Currently, a blast of "warm" moist air is crossing the region.  It would not surprise me if once things clear, the sad, relict ice will be obliterated and large areas of the Chukchi are open.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: davidsanger on May 15, 2014, 07:45:49 PM
Jaxa Sea Ice extent now closing in on record lows for the date (2006 thru May 25th). Only 80K above the record yesterday.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 15, 2014, 11:09:03 PM

Jaxa has updated it's scans of the ESS/Laptev.  We can see what these winds have done so far with about one day of influence.


Looking thru all of the Jaxa records back to the early 2000s as of at least may 21st no year had any open water in the ESS.


First time for everything right?




(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtkjQMgM.gif&hash=29d06c7ea393851f5510edcd3919a945)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 16, 2014, 09:41:21 AM
Meanwhile, it seems El-nino chances rise massively during this May and June - if i understand this right:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-qvCOkiFrXvA%2FU2zO3JPT3_I%2FAAAAAAAANOw%2FEfswTbuCkCM%2Fs1600%2Ffigure1.gif&hash=2e325608ed936dd5e0b1caa5a6111a9c)

If El-nino actually starts this May or this June, then this year minimum extent would be somewhat affected, i guess?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: MikeAinOz on May 16, 2014, 11:18:58 AM
Tnioli, I suspect that you may be correct in your assumption. However, as far as I know, the Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly is measured in a specific place in the Pacific Ocean. Given that we are currently experiencing some rapid climate change, I would not be surprised if El Nino behaves differently or could be measured differently.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Glenn Tamblyn on May 16, 2014, 12:18:06 PM
The latest Hycom thickness graph looks interesting. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

Given reservations about its absolute accuracy based on the big processing change last year, the relative changes might still be interesting. The Laptev up to 80N is certainly thinning faster than just about anywhere else. A major expanse of open water there with in a month looks a real possibility.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 16, 2014, 01:25:24 PM
... However, as far as I know, the Nino 3.4 SST Anomaly is measured in a specific place in the Pacific Ocean. Given that we are currently experiencing some rapid climate change, I would not be surprised if El Nino behaves differently or could be measured differently.
Yet, it's not about Nino 3.4 only. Quote:

" The weekly SST indices were near to slightly above average and increasing in the Niño1+2, Niño3 and Niño3.4 regions, and above average in the Niño4 region (Fig. 2). The downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave that began in January greatly increased the oceanic heat content during March and April (Fig. 3), and produced large positive subsurface temperature anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). The upper portion of these subsurface anomalies reached the sea surface, warming the waters east of 125oW longitude. "

Source (and further details): http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html) .
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 16, 2014, 05:02:41 PM
That storm that passed over the Kara sea over the last 2 days have given the sea ice quite a push.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FA8iHNnl.gif&hash=98419f3491cfd5bfa55798b66eaafc08)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 16, 2014, 06:05:42 PM
That storm that passed over the Kara sea over the last 2 days have given the sea ice quite a push.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FA8iHNnl.gif&hash=98419f3491cfd5bfa55798b66eaafc08)
I wish Lance-Modis hadn't lost all that imagery... Only comparisons are 2010/2011.  Doesn't look dramatically different, but nonetheless, the pack there has lost all integrity.

That seems to be a signature feature of the changes in the ice as a whole; the disassembly of major stretches of pack ice into disconnected flows separated by leads, which are filled or not with significantly thinner ice.

Here is 2010 for comparison.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2010134.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2010134.terra)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 16, 2014, 06:57:06 PM
The latest Hycom thickness graph looks interesting. http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif)

Given reservations about its absolute accuracy based on the big processing change last year, the relative changes might still be interesting. The Laptev up to 80N is certainly thinning faster than just about anywhere else. A major expanse of open water there with in a month looks a real possibility.
I take HYCOM thickness with a serious helping of salt. I do find it useful in following ice movement. In that regard I do think I see a new factor which ties back to that, and the progressive decrease in pack integrity.

I will try to quantify it, but it seems to me that this season has seen far greater export of ice through the gaps between Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Nova Zemlya.

My thinking is, this may have happened in the past, but unlike the past, we have A much warmer Barents Sea.  The result is another conveyor like the Fram, as where previously the ice would remain and inhibit further export, it melts in the warmer Barents waters.

The the additional displacement permitted ripples all the way across the pack.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 16, 2014, 07:11:19 PM
Meanwhile, it seems El-nino chances rise massively during this May and June - if i understand this right:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-qvCOkiFrXvA%2FU2zO3JPT3_I%2FAAAAAAAANOw%2FEfswTbuCkCM%2Fs1600%2Ffigure1.gif&hash=2e325608ed936dd5e0b1caa5a6111a9c)

If El-nino actually starts this May or this June, then this year minimum extent would be somewhat affected, i guess?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I would imagine that a El Nino in June would have bigger ramifications for the ice freeze during the winter rather than the melt during the summer no?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 16, 2014, 07:44:18 PM
Latest GFS shows an amazingly big heat dome to reach ESS, Chukchi and Berings Sea next week!! A minor heat dome will reach ESS this weekend but the real blow arrives next week. The powerful cyclone should do a good job to the ice in these areas followed by temperatures over zero. It's possible that the temps in ESS may be over zero day around as the sun will be there 24/7 soon... We may see something really unexpected then!! As there is a huge polynya in ESS and off shore winds is expected next week I won't be surprised if there will be a polynya that creates a "corridor" in the ESS and Chukchi the whole way from Berings sea to Severnaya Zemlya area... What do you think about this? :)

Todays numbers from JAXA only showed a small decrease in SIE. The ice around Frans Josef and Svalbard should deteriorate quickly next week.. Don't be surprised if we are close to 11 million km2 by May 31 or June 1...

Interestingly, DMI shows temps way below normal right now.. Given the heat domes arrival next week those negative anomalies should switch to positive numbers but we'll see what the future brings!!

What are your thoughts about next weeks expected heat dome arrival?:)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 16, 2014, 09:41:31 PM
F Tnioli,

I've come across very little connecting the ENSO to Arctic sea ice, see here (http://"http://scholar.google.co.uk/scholar?q=el+nino+impact+on+arctic+sea+ice&hl=en&as_sdt=0&as_vis=1&oi=scholart&sa=X&ei=BGB2U6GWDqnX7AbDlIAQ&sqi=2&ved=0CC0QgQMwAA") for example. Where researchers have to zoom in on regions and resort to advanced math like wavelets it's safe to say the effect is small and that other factors far outweigh it.

Considering the 1998 super ENSO - It is worth noting that September 1998 was a local peak of NSIDC sea ice extent, 1999 was down on 1998 and the following years were similar in minimum extent to 1999.

In terms of PIOMAS volume, after 1998 there was a continued drop in volume, but Lindsay & Zhang put this down to ice albedo feedback, triggered by the PDO, and AO prior to 1998, not the ENSO. The running sum of interanual differences in NSIDC Extent starts a downwards movement after 1997.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm3.staticflickr.com%2F2890%2F13293791045_5ce2e28c53_o.png&hash=85d650048347a7c3b20c946f02c6b76b)

But the impact after 1998 on global temperature has been a flattening of the increase in temperature after about 2002, so I struggle to see how Arctic sea ice loss is strongly affected by the ENSO.

Siffy,

You may be right, isn't there a lag of 3 months with global temperature (don't quote me on that I may be getting mixed up with Pinatubo's cooling influence).


LMVader,

I wouldn't say that DMI is 'way' below normal, it's only a few degrees. Much of the edges of the  pack is up to 2.5 to 5degC above normal. The large region of blue on the plot below is due to the distortion caused by the grid points nearing the pole itself - which is colder than average.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.html (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/fnl/sfctmpmer_01a.fnl.html)

JD Allen questions HYCOM thickness, my concern is that its thickest ice seems to be too thick. However the thickness of much of the first year ice, around 2m thick, is believable. And I suspect the situation off Siberia is real.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif (http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictnnowcast.gif)

Warming to around zero starts to happen now in recent years and seems to be a factor in the PIOMAS spring volume loss anomaly that has been a feature of the post 2010 years (see attached graphic). With next month's PIOMAS data release we should be able to see the loss start, but we'll have to wait for June's data (released July) to see how big it is.

Fingers crossed for a big one.  8)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 16, 2014, 09:46:57 PM
Interestingly, the ECMWF 12z run today friday is somewhat disturbing.. The heat dome which have been predicted is no longer appearing but instead blocked by a cyclone.. Let's see how the coming forecasts show up!!:)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 16, 2014, 10:09:33 PM
Interestingly, the ECMWF 12z run today friday is somewhat disturbing.. The heat dome which have been predicted is no longer appearing but instead blocked by a cyclone.. Let's see how the coming forecasts show up!!:)

I wouldn't look at the forecasts much beyond five days as their accuracy after that point is pretty questionable.

Siffy,

You may be right, isn't there a lag of 3 months with global temperature (don't quote me on that I may be getting mixed up with Pinatubo's cooling influence).


That is my understanding as well, although I have to admit I can't recall where I picked up that idea from.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 16, 2014, 10:25:38 PM
Siffy, I'm well aware about the fact that forecasts a week ahead have a high degree of uncertainity... Still, IF the heat dome would make its way through ESS, Chukchi and Berings sea it would be remarkable interestingly! And despite the fact that it's a week from now we can always speculate..
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 16, 2014, 11:43:15 PM
What I find interesting is what is happening around the Bering.
You have Warm strong winds coming from the Pacific. Compare
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449) and http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
Caused by a pinched off circular jet stream wind.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
Alberta, Canada had experience with one of those when there was severe flooding that resulted because of weeks of storms. The longer that lasts the more heat will get pumped into the Arctic giving more fuel to lows.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 17, 2014, 12:09:32 AM
The 12z Euro diverged quite a bit and keeps the vortex locked in while having a much slower transition to a dipole anomaly with a large vortex where colder air is pooled on the Russian side and not the Kara region.

 

It still ends up a dipole and the ensembles are a more pro the previous OP runs.  But this could be a trend away from the massive warm air incursion that was progged to hit the Pacific side.

 

Hopefully this is a real change and not just the euro being over amplified with the first vortex.

 

The GFS held serve.  And is still backed by the GEM, Euro Ensembles, GFS ensembles for a terrible pattern emerging after day 4-5.

 

But it's worth noting because the OP euro is dramatically better for the ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 17, 2014, 11:14:01 AM
Over the next 7 days, climate re analyzer is pretty torchy across most of the arctic, showing consistent positive anomalies.

I will add, even after a "cool off", we will still be 225,000 KM2 below 2013 at this date.

We will just have to see.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 17, 2014, 12:53:29 PM
Have anyone of you looked at the latest ACFNS forecast? Even if there is a degree of uncertainity in the model, just look and compare the pics in ice thickness between May 16 18z and May 24 00z.. My mouth was going through the floor due to the predicted weakness in the ice thickness which goes virtually the whole way to the North Pole...

Your thoughts about this?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 17, 2014, 01:52:44 PM
There are huge differences right now between the GFS and Euro.

Both end up with a bad dipole anomaly.  But the GFS crushes parts of the arctic.


The Southern half of GIS is also about to get super baked with a mega ridge.



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 17, 2014, 02:16:12 PM
There are huge differences right now between the GFS and Euro.

Both end up with a bad dipole anomaly.  But the GFS crushes parts of the arctic.


The Southern half of GIS is also about to get super baked with a mega ridge.

Any chance you could screenshot what you are seeing as I'm missing it in my quick search through GFS.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 17, 2014, 02:20:50 PM
Have anyone of you looked at the latest ACFNS forecast? Even if there is a degree of uncertainity in the model, just look and compare the pics in ice thickness between May 16 18z and May 24 00z.. My mouth was going through the floor due to the predicted weakness in the ice thickness which goes virtually the whole way to the North Pole...

Your thoughts about this?

Yes that's the effect of the storm for the next few days. The effect is much weaker than last year's persistent cyclone though. Then, the ACFNS predicted a big hole opening up in Central Arctic, and nearly happened so. The same persistent cyclone that apparently prevented so much sun radiation hit the ice.

However I see things are going different this year in that there's a lot of heat flow coming from Pacific, West to East direction, that was absent last year.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 17, 2014, 06:00:20 PM

Here is the 00z GFS we can see the major warming on the Pacific side after day 3-4.  That is nasty for this time of year to have that large of an area of the basin with 0C+ 850mb temps. 

If what the GFS shows is right.  Snow cover in that region will also be totally decimated a week from now.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FicPCehi.gif&hash=d660793c593bcaa034aa841b19facad2)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 17, 2014, 06:40:04 PM
Is it just me or is it a pinhole break in the ice at the border between Beaufort Sea and CAB in the map today May 17 by Arctische Pinguin at https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20140516_res3.125_pyres.nc.gz.png?attachauth=ANoY7crtxtNljRjLZLzhbnPiRUKPqBOqWTUMDFrmwofns63l0QVNDGYehTnwdQo9oGJTaxgO5_6sBmL_JyMcQR7rNGByxhdbhfZvgn_F9-I2KBHz_0Z9fWv3NjBwHYum-h-E7BF8NBlNWTg9MPYkvqjHT-0UDHo4YJTvxkOw7bd7J7KSAdWCtDUbJa5zMGCbyaL8DdUuqREN2dvuxOX3OunbO5jfeGpPwnq4-VcxiwUgUo_EuiXd8HHpQ-BpbZnoHoT7dI6oVl7k&attredirects=0 (https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20140516_res3.125_pyres.nc.gz.png?attachauth=ANoY7crtxtNljRjLZLzhbnPiRUKPqBOqWTUMDFrmwofns63l0QVNDGYehTnwdQo9oGJTaxgO5_6sBmL_JyMcQR7rNGByxhdbhfZvgn_F9-I2KBHz_0Z9fWv3NjBwHYum-h-E7BF8NBlNWTg9MPYkvqjHT-0UDHo4YJTvxkOw7bd7J7KSAdWCtDUbJa5zMGCbyaL8DdUuqREN2dvuxOX3OunbO5jfeGpPwnq4-VcxiwUgUo_EuiXd8HHpQ-BpbZnoHoT7dI6oVl7k&attredirects=0) ? Do you see it? Is it reasonable to believe that we could get a minor polynya in this area this early in the melt season? Have such thing ever happened before?

Anyway, Pevek in ESS close to Wrangels Island may get 0-5C next week and a reasonable amount of sunlight.. Should do a good blow to the ice there!

Tomorrow, May 18 the SIE will highly likely go below 12 million km2 which is 5 days later than the record earliest date for that limit.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 17, 2014, 06:42:59 PM
The 12z GFS is now out, and it continues the trend seen in the 00 and 06z runs, with some exceptionally warm air gathering over Siberia and pushing north into the ESS and then central Arctic.
It's a case of eyes on the ECM now to see if that backtracks to the GFS.

Either way, we should continue to see slow/steady losses over the next 3-4 days with mild air affecting the southern Baffin sea and continued loss of what remains in the Bering and Okhotsk seas.
Both the GFS and ECM, however, agree on the first really warm spell over Hudson late on Tuesday, around the same time as the GFS predicts the warm air arriving in the ESS. Should the two of these occur, we could well see our first spell of exceptional area and extent drops, with losses exceeding 100k/day.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 17, 2014, 07:22:52 PM
The 12z GFS is insane.

Holy crap.





(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpXPizxH.gif&hash=ed08df1fee9f07355d6bf94695d0031d)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 17, 2014, 07:32:31 PM
That vortex that the GFS shows would also wreck the Kara.

Even with cold low level air overhead.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 17, 2014, 08:04:35 PM
2 oddities;

DMI +80°N temps continue to flatline at approx -10°C, but CT area is falling rapidly, andthe neg anomaly growing.

CT and UniBreman colour coded maps look very different to each other. Looks like CT may be registering all areas North of 80° as 100% ice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 17, 2014, 09:31:48 PM
Is it just me or is it a pinhole break in the ice at the border between Beaufort Sea and CAB in the map today May 17 by Arctische Pinguin at https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20140516_res3.125_pyres.nc.gz.png?attachauth=ANoY7crtxtNljRjLZLzhbnPiRUKPqBOqWTUMDFrmwofns63l0QVNDGYehTnwdQo9oGJTaxgO5_6sBmL_JyMcQR7rNGByxhdbhfZvgn_F9-I2KBHz_0Z9fWv3NjBwHYum-h-E7BF8NBlNWTg9MPYkvqjHT-0UDHo4YJTvxkOw7bd7J7KSAdWCtDUbJa5zMGCbyaL8DdUuqREN2dvuxOX3OunbO5jfeGpPwnq4-VcxiwUgUo_EuiXd8HHpQ-BpbZnoHoT7dI6oVl7k&attredirects=0 (https://0c35ba35-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/apamsr2/home/pngcby32/Arc_20140516_res3.125_pyres.nc.gz.png?attachauth=ANoY7crtxtNljRjLZLzhbnPiRUKPqBOqWTUMDFrmwofns63l0QVNDGYehTnwdQo9oGJTaxgO5_6sBmL_JyMcQR7rNGByxhdbhfZvgn_F9-I2KBHz_0Z9fWv3NjBwHYum-h-E7BF8NBlNWTg9MPYkvqjHT-0UDHo4YJTvxkOw7bd7J7KSAdWCtDUbJa5zMGCbyaL8DdUuqREN2dvuxOX3OunbO5jfeGpPwnq4-VcxiwUgUo_EuiXd8HHpQ-BpbZnoHoT7dI6oVl7k&attredirects=0) ? Do you see it? Is it reasonable to believe that we could get a minor polynya in this area this early in the melt season? Have such thing ever happened before?

If we are looking at the same thing, LMV, I would say it's probably clouds messing things up a bit. If you want to check out events compared to previous years, go here (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0519).

The ECMWF forecast is very fickle, one moment it shows a huge dipole, the next it's back to a dominating cyclone.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 17, 2014, 10:20:13 PM

The ECMWF forecast is very fickle, one moment it shows a huge dipole, the next it's back to a dominating cyclone.


A tipping point. '13 cyclone or '07 dipole.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 17, 2014, 10:26:22 PM
Yes, it could be a key moment. But there will probably be others after that, unless it becomes a complete copy of 2013.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 17, 2014, 10:47:20 PM
Neven: to make sure that we are looking at the same thing I post this partial picture by Artische Pinguins daily maps and the pinhole I'm referring to is the tiny one in the badly painted black ring that I made...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 17, 2014, 10:52:26 PM
This is part of what I looked at (the whole black-grey streak). Could be clouds, could be low concentration. If it's the latter, it will probably close up again when the winds shift. Have you checked out the satellite images?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 17, 2014, 11:44:27 PM
2 oddities;

DMI +80°N temps continue to flatline at approx -10°C, but CT area is falling rapidly, andthe neg anomaly growing.

CT and UniBreman colour coded maps look very different to each other. Looks like CT may be registering all areas North of 80° as 100% ice.
I think CT has 95%-100% as almost the same color (and 90% still very similar), while UniBremen has quite different ones for 100%, 99% and >95%.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 18, 2014, 02:13:04 AM
Hamberg uses amsr channel 89 for ice retrieval which has a ground res of 3x5km. 

While CT uses SSMIS channel 37 and 18 which have terrible resolution of 31 and 47km.

So Bremens grid res is 6.25km  while CT is 25km.

I personally find very little value in ct concentration.

I find Bremen is contaminated by higher clouds that cause the concentration to be higher then it really is at times.

I like jaxa the best because we have the final product.  Amsr2 channel 18/37 which is hi res now.

And the channel 89 seperate.

Channel 89 is great for determining ice thickness.

Channels 37/18 are great for telling where the ice surface is melting as well as where the MYI is.

Hamburg 3.125km is boss for intricate details but is prone to cloud contamination
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 18, 2014, 02:52:06 AM
Modis shows the lower concentration ice talked about above.  It's a n area of shattered floes.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 18, 2014, 03:04:22 AM
In fact it looks like the ice all over parts of the Pacific side is crumbling into smaller floes.

The MYI over that region is extremely thin for its age.  Most of it is left overs from 2012 when it was crippled.

Some of that 5 year old ice isn't even 2M thick.  It can't grow enuf in winter too off set Summer loss.

So while it can be older it isn't much thicker than FYI. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 18, 2014, 10:35:18 AM
Yes, it could be a key moment. But there will probably be others after that, unless it becomes a complete copy of 2013.
The key moment is looking increasingly bad.  For most intents and purposes, the Bering is clear, and Chukchi disintergrating.

Baffin Bay looks bad.

Kara is coming apart.

And then, we have the ESS.

Lance Modis is showing a lot of bad stuff all at once.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 18, 2014, 01:02:29 PM
Neven: to make sure that we are looking at the same thing I post this partial picture by Artische Pinguins daily maps and the pinhole I'm referring to is the tiny one in the badly painted black ring that I made...

If you look at the link of sea ice concentration maps that Neven provided.....

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0519

...you can see this area of low concentration.

I believe this area of low concentration is due to ice movement.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 18, 2014, 01:10:00 PM
In fact it looks like the ice all over parts of the Pacific side is crumbling into smaller floes.

The MYI over that region is extremely thin for its age.  Most of it is left overs from 2012 when it was crippled.

Some of that 5 year old ice isn't even 2M thick.  It can't grow enuf in winter too off set Summer loss.

So while it can be older it isn't much thicker than FYI.
It is for this reason I really think different definitions to see ice should be looked at. A combination of thickness and quality. If MYI is broken up into small chunks and only 2m thick, how in the world can it truly be considered as MYI. True it might have been around for 5+ years without melting out entirely, but it is not the same as the MYI of 30+ years ago. That was made up of massive sheets of very thick ice that did very little melting off in the summer.
And even the 20+ ft. thick stuff is so weak a wave travelling 100+ mile under the ice pack can smash it to pieces. I personally do not consider that true MYI.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on May 18, 2014, 01:19:52 PM
I think the Beaufort will be the key to the 2014 melt season. If you again look at the sea ice concentration link provided by neven........

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0519

.....and compare the Beaufort this year to 2013 and 2012, the Beaufort looks healthier than either of these years while the Chukchi is much worse. We know that much of the MYI migrated to the Beaufort. Will this ice be able to survive the melt season or will it at least hang on substantially through most of the melt season and serve to protect the CAB? If we see dramatic melt of this MYI early in the melt season than things could get real bad.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 18, 2014, 02:22:06 PM
Lasts nights euro was the worst late May pattern I've ever seen.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Csnavywx on May 18, 2014, 02:37:06 PM
Yeah, both it and the GFS (and their respective ensemble runs) start going nuclear in about 4-5 days. A week of that kind of dipole pattern will put a large hole in the ESS.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 19, 2014, 12:45:27 AM
On ice quality in the Beaufort Sea...
Does it really look better, SH? I'm not so sure. More than half of the distance to the imaginary CAB-boundary looks pretty broken-up...
Last year, it remained a relatively solid plain right from the coastal stress lead. Doesn't look like that at all. Let's keep an eye on it.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 19, 2014, 03:49:50 AM
Concur, Werther.

On a similar note, out of curiosity, I started going through a comparison of past years at this time and 2014 using Cryosphere Today's tool:

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=05&sd=16&sy=2014 (http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=16&fy=2012&sm=05&sd=16&sy=2014)

As far as I can tell, this is the first time the Chukchi and Bering has been this clear this early in our historical record.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 19, 2014, 07:51:31 AM
Good view of the ESS region today.

Remember it's May 19th.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQfQbIH6.jpg&hash=c82f2db9600615e764dddde4f0c1ae42)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 19, 2014, 09:11:26 AM
I've posted the first ASI 2014 update (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/05/asi-2014-update-1-melt-pond-may.html).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 19, 2014, 09:33:49 AM
Bering/ Chukchi

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2014138.terra.1km (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r06c03.2014138.terra.1km)

I almost certain we've not seen it this clear this early.  It is alarming.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 19, 2014, 09:38:27 AM
...
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-qvCOkiFrXvA%2FU2zO3JPT3_I%2FAAAAAAAANOw%2FEfswTbuCkCM%2Fs1600%2Ffigure1.gif&hash=2e325608ed936dd5e0b1caa5a6111a9c)

If El-nino actually starts this May or this June, then this year minimum extent would be somewhat affected, i guess?

Correct me if I'm wrong but I would imagine that a El Nino in June would have bigger ramifications for the ice freeze during the winter rather than the melt during the summer no?
No, you're right. That's why i said "somewhat" affected - bigger ramifications would sure be during the winter and (considering the circumstances) next melt season, too. Yet, changes in athmospheric patterns and events is big enough to worry about, too, you know.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 19, 2014, 09:42:27 AM
It's a PITA that we can't compare (I just discovered the hard disk failure they experienced), because the Bering Sea in 2011 was pretty low too, according to the regional map (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional) and the concentration maps page (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/concentration-maps/sic0519). But this year it's lower, and that won't change any time soon.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 19, 2014, 07:45:17 PM
Hello dear friends!

The discussion about ESS in earlier years made me do what jdallen already did: to look at earlier years and compare. While there were no signs of a break up this early at year there were signs of an area with low sea ice concentrations in the ESS by the end of may 2006. We should remember that the resolution of Cryosphere Today (CT) seems to be lower than Arctische Pinguins (AP) eminent pics with 3.125 km resolution. By May 17 from CT doesn't manage to show this compared to both Bremen and AP. That's why I lean to say that it's possible that the ESS may have seen an early break up in the end of may 2006. However, this years event is much more remarkable though!

Another thing that is worth to keep an eye at is the Kara Sea where the ice is very thin and there is a break up. Given that really warm air is coming from south and will continue to dig into this area with offshore winds according to GFS latest 12z run for the next week or so I don't see why Laptev Sea wouldn't experience a really large ice free area by the end of this month.. Given the resolution I think that we'll see an over estimation by the SIE of Jaxa due to this event.. ECMWF 12z run will be highly interesting to see the outcome!!

DMI show a fairly steady increase in the Arctic temps north of 80N which certainly should continue and switch to positive numbers soon. There have been discussions of how bad this season will be. I think we may get a hint from the AO. The AO have mostly been positive this year even though it will be more normal now the next days. I think we'll continue to get a summer dominated by neutral AO index. The outcome combined with the fact that the ice is somewhat thicker this year in parts of Arctic implies that this season won't end up being as bad as 2012 was. I'm still confident in my guess that this years SIE will end up somewhere in the range of 3,9-4,5 million km2...:)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 19, 2014, 09:34:21 PM
Few things I have noted:
From these it appears to be a storm is developing near the north pole.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-165.77,77.61,922 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/orthographic=-165.77,77.61,922)
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=wind_power_density/orthographic=-224.97,90.22,449)
Also look at the 2 systems off the Russian coast that appear to be pumping in heat directly into the storm:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=187.67,76.67,1240 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=187.67,76.67,1240)
Then on the other side Look at those surface sea temps off Svalbard's (Fram Staight)  west coast. Been watching that over the last week or so and that area is getting warmer all the time.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 19, 2014, 09:37:06 PM
Ocean temps:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-62.78,80.78,1536 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp/orthographic=-62.78,80.78,1536)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 19, 2014, 09:59:28 PM
From watching things for a while, I'm not sure at this stage the SST's are as diagnostic as those above two meters; the presence of ice will buffer them significantly, and we may miss heat transfer happening which that buffering may mask.

I'm thinking wind, albedo and higher level temps (850mb?) may give us better clues.

I've been watching legerdemain passing back and forth about member processing for prediction. Part of it seems to revolve around finding some generally predictable cyclical value to provide an attractor around which anomaly ranges may be implied.

I think the best approach to be evaluating inputs of heat, and rates of transfer.  Everything else appears more derivative. I'll try to be more detailed after work.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 19, 2014, 10:05:38 PM
The ECMWF is now seriously pointing to high pressure domination starting in a couple of days. If this comes about a large part of the sea ice pack will be bathed in sunshine, meaning lots of melt ponds could form. Very interesting.

And now for my new routine: checking the CCI Reanalyzer temp map.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 19, 2014, 10:21:40 PM
JDAllen: From my limited understanding. The power of Arctic storms comes from the temp difference between what the core gets hold of and the outer winds get hold of. With solid ice the temp comes from the same souses and therefore such storms will quickly die. If the storm is able to get hold of the temp from water then the strength longevity of the storm depends on those temp differences. The question is how open is that ice under that storm. And what can also happen (as in 2012? I believe) the storm lasts long enough to create open water at its core then if it can get hold of warmer air from elsewhere it can become and far big storm that can last a long time.
Of course there are a million and one other variables that determine what actually does happen.
Just do remember that the big one I am thinking about started as small and everyone thought it was going to just disipate fast and mean nothing.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: deep octopus on May 19, 2014, 11:16:58 PM
And now for my new routine: checking the CCI Reanalyzer temp map.

Agreed. This tool has become my favorite find of the year, by far.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 19, 2014, 11:21:32 PM
The Euro doesn't just rock the arctic the next week. 

The ESS and Latpev are going to get seriously crushed as we end May.  I have no idea how fast the melt can take off in combo with the off shore/dipole flow.  But the potential is there for a whole whole lot of open water to form between the Laptev and ESS under predominantly sunny skies.

On top of that in a few days the snow cover in those areas will be decimated and surface warming will explode.  The models are already showing high temps in the 10-15C+ range along the ESS/Laptev shoreline in the medium range.


Lastly the Euro also shows major ridging forming around day 6-7 over the GIS/NA side.

It's nasty and a carbon copy of the 2007-2012 GIS -NAO regime.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 20, 2014, 12:41:39 AM
The Euro doesn't just rock the arctic the next week. 

The ESS and Latpev are going to get seriously crushed as we end May.  I have no idea how fast the melt can take off in combo with the off shore/dipole flow.  But the potential is there for a whole whole lot of open water to form between the Laptev and ESS under predominantly sunny skies.

Yes, but there's still 2-3 days before the current cyclone dissipates, so the forecast could still change. It has been pretty steady today, though.

Agreed. This tool has become my favorite find of the year, by far.

I've been only using it since the last couple of days. Does anyone know why the last few forecasts (180 hr and 2-3 before that) all of a sudden have all the heat disappear in the US, and Eastern Europe and Africa go ablaze? I've been noticing this for the second time in a couple of days.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 20, 2014, 12:48:42 AM

And now for my new routine: checking the CCI Reanalyzer temp map

Something that bothers me of that map (the anomaly one that I assume is 2m) is that anomalies show some dependence on the hour of the day. That 1-day periodic component should be absent as is the case with most NASA and NOAA anomaly analyses. It gives me some feeling of distrust...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 20, 2014, 04:12:54 AM
I've been only using it since the last couple of days. Does anyone know why the last few forecasts (180 hr and 2-3 before that) all of a sudden have all the heat disappear in the US, and Eastern Europe and Africa go ablaze? I've been noticing this for the second time in a couple of days.

If you check, Neven, I think some of those temperature cycles tie back to the diurnal cycle.  That may be the case here.  I also suspect at the far end of the model, it may start losing coherence.  Anything past hour 120 or so, I take with a certain amount of skepticism.  For current and near term, I think its fantastic.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 20, 2014, 04:19:23 AM

And now for my new routine: checking the CCI Reanalyzer temp map

Something that bothers me of that map (the anomaly one that I assume is 2m) is that anomalies show some dependence on the hour of the day. That 1-day periodic component should be absent as is the case with most NASA and NOAA anomaly analyses. It gives me some feeling of distrust...

Check the region they're showing up.  If its dry, clear, and high (>500M) you can get pretty wild swings in temperature which may show up as alternating positive and negative anomalies due to rapid heating during the day, and radiational cooling at night.   Even outside of that, you can get pretty serious swings this time of year across most of NA.  For example, just a few days ago, they had a frost warning in southern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.  Tomorrow, it will hit 25C in Minneapolis/St. Paul.


And of course, they may have a bug in their model ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 20, 2014, 08:06:14 AM
One of the intriguing features from yesterdays’ MODIS:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FWeakspotsmall_zps69cbf161.jpg&hash=b4374feb005511c8aad2f8ee2dfd8b55)

This looks a lot like the splintering pattern out here June last year. Quite early in the season. A tendency to splinter up and disperse again?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 20, 2014, 12:02:23 PM
Another thing I picked up during today's routine check-up. In support of all fellow posters that have been forecasting 'torching' last days.
Wetteronline and Climate Reanalyzer both forecast the Yakutia Coast in NE Siberia to really warm up. The wave will last into June. Even Ostrov kotel'nyi could make it to +14 dC and above freezing during the 'night' (which means pretty low sun from now on during the next three months).
Summer arrives usually around the 1st of June in these parts. This year it seems to enter with a bang.

PS look at MODIS today in NE Siberia. A swirl of 'smoke' curls up from the Sea of Okhotsk to the Lena delta. Ashes from volcan Shiveluch, Kamchatka?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: helorime on May 20, 2014, 03:32:57 PM
There is more rubble than your circle shows.  The area above and to the right is semi-obscured by fog, you can see it's outlines.  Without access to previous year's images it is hard to tell how unusual this is for May. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 21, 2014, 07:50:10 AM
The Euro has dramatically backed off from it's bad solutions.  It's still bad for the ESS and Laptev but even then it's not as bad for the ESS near as much as it was just a day ago.

I also thought way more snow would be gone by now in Eastern Siberia it's holding on very strong for so much WAA.

It's melting out way faster around the Laptev.  I guess the low elevation of the Laptev region is to blame there.


Forecasts call for above freezing temps over the Eastern half of Russia day and night going forward with even 10-15C+ high temps reaching the arctic basin starting tomorrow by Tiksi.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 21, 2014, 07:57:07 AM
The Euro has dramatically backed off from it's bad solutions.

Indeed, the high is less dominant and comes from the Atlantic, and not from the American side. This makes a difference for wind directions, etc.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 21, 2014, 08:19:52 AM
Yeah the MYI is protected completely.  The flow from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side is cut off except along the Russian side.

The 00z GFS shows HP trying to take over after day 5 or so.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FCk6mxqu.gif&hash=c429f9c906aaca9ede5d823e3715b3dc)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on May 21, 2014, 11:27:54 AM
RS has a nice post on the heat that is moving into the Arctic:
http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/arctic-heatwaves-rise-to-threaten-sea-ice-as-lake-baikal-wildfires-reignite/ (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/arctic-heatwaves-rise-to-threaten-sea-ice-as-lake-baikal-wildfires-reignite/)

Arctic Heatwaves Rise to Threaten Sea Ice

Quote
According to model forecasts, Arctic heatwaves are forming that will, throughout this coming week, bring 50-70 degree (F) temperatures to the shores of the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, the estuaries of the Kara and on through Arctic Eastern Russia to Coastal Scandinavia. These heat pulses will push a series of wedges of above-freezing temperatures across the Arctic Ocean zones of the Chukchi, East Siberian, Laptev and Kara Seas to within a few hundred miles of the North Pole, creating conditions that set up the potential for a severe early-season weakening of sea ice.

They are the most recent in a long train of severe warming events arising out of a wide region of Northwest North America and Eastern Asia since at least late last fall. The heat waves have continued to ride up weaknesses in the Jet Stream and deliver warmth to the High Arctic, creating havoc for Arctic climes. During Winter, the heat pulses collapsed the Polar Vortex and sent Arctic temperature anomalies spiking to 5-6+ degrees Celsius or greater above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average even as they set off a series of heat-related weather emergencies for Alaska.

Triple Arctic Heatwaves

With the emergence of late spring, high temperature anomalies typically cool in the Arctic as polar amplification seasonally fades. However, the two Jet Stream weaknesses have continued to provide heat transport and push Arctic temperatures above normal and into ice-threatening ranges. Now, a third hot ridge, this one over Western Russia and Eastern Europe, has emerged and strengthened to provide yet one more Arctic heat delivery engine...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 21, 2014, 01:38:56 PM
Snow cover over Eastern Siberia should melt out over the next week completely.

That will allow low level near surface temps to rapidly rise.

8 days from now while highly subject to change the GFS is showing not just off shore winds but a downslope off shore flow set up over the ESS.

The GFS is already showing high temps reaching 20C+ near the ESS shoreline.  Having such prolonged off shore winds over the ESS and Laptev regions with the heat continually rebuilding in my experience tracking the arctic is rare.

For whatever reason a weak SLP/PV anomaly wants to sit over the Beaufort region and not move.

while the ice effected on the Russian side is only FYI.  There could be some rapid and massive early season losses on this side coupled with unprecedented SST rises.

The ESS is so shallow.  I'd think it wouldn't take much once land snow cover is gone with a little bit of open water to see huge sst warming in the ESS and Laptev.





(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1682.gif&hash=f854db7be4b91e674b6861da4d025d13)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 21, 2014, 07:01:59 PM
Considering the uncertainty of the forecasts, what comes to mind is a contest between sumo wrestlers...  Feed backs vs increasing energy.  Cold core cyclones and cloudiness inhibiting melt on one side, the rapid landslide/onset of disappearing snow pack and astonishingly warm intrusions of hot air, melt water and oceanic heat on the other.

It doesn't seem clear to me yet who will be pushed out of the ring, but the struggle appears epic.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 21, 2014, 08:08:58 PM
Hmm, it seems like we are getting some what of a repeat of 2013 in some ways although the Ice pack looks quite a bit more fractured than last year and the Chukchi sea seems to have started melting out much earlier.

Going to be interesting to see the next few weeks.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 21, 2014, 11:53:51 PM
Hmm, it seems like we are getting some what of a repeat of 2013 in some ways although the Ice pack looks quite a bit more fractured than last year and the Chukchi sea seems to have started melting out much earlier.

Going to be interesting to see the next few weeks.

That's just the surface of it; weather has been considerably different  and different *portions* of the arctic are experiencing far different conditions.  Things I think are far more asymmetric than 2013, and thereby both less stable and less predictable.   We can place this winters weather across the Northern hemisphere in evidence as "exhibit A" for this.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 22, 2014, 02:46:28 AM
the models continue to trend better in the short to medium range.

But they don't form a vortex or drop the -NAO
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 22, 2014, 07:20:49 AM
Interestingly, the latest GFS is building a second heat dome in Laptev Sea in about 5-6 days with the HP from the Pacific side.. Let's see how the models perform this run later!!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 22, 2014, 08:06:27 AM
Actually I think its more like 2012.  The weather kept changing, hinting at massively favourable ice loss patterns, but never getting it fully together.  But ice extent kept dropping at near record rates until the big storm blew the record away.

I've often noticed that a factor in 2007 was the early entry of the melt front from the Pacific.  An early extention of the melt front from the Bering straight area into Beaufort and ESS gave a nice long melt front and allowed faster melting during early July.

Later in the season the attack on the ESS ice tongue is a factor.  In 2009-2011 this tongue held up well and late season melt was slower.  In 2008 and 2012 early incroads from Beaufort and Laptev tended to pinch off the tongue.  In 2008 high rates of melting were achieved late season as the tongue was pinched off and partially melted out, and in 2012 the record was beaten as a good portion of the tongue was completely isolated from the main pack and melted out, effectively giving a second melt front in the Arctic.

Also I noticed today that this is not the earliest date of significant open water in ESS area.  Cryosphere Today shows significant open water earlier than this year in this region, and the result was an extreme melt (by pre-2000 stamdards) of the ESS area by September.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 22, 2014, 09:03:54 AM
...
The ESS is so shallow.  I'd think it wouldn't take much once land snow cover is gone with a little bit of open water to see huge sst warming in the ESS and Laptev.
...
ESS has thousands of gigatons of methane clathrates being right under its sea floor, too. And i'm not someone who agrees with that D. Archer's finely crafted paper - i mean, i don't think the upper layer of methane clathrate deposits will sit nicely frozen all the way till bottom layer would melt all the way up and through. Huge sst warming in ESS that early (1st half of June? 2nd half of June?) - means maximum insolation over open water of ESS, and i say, upper layer of methane clathrate deposits in ESS - will give out alot of methane into the athmosphere. The only question is how much.

If ESS starts to fart methane for real - Gt-scale - then it's much game-over, i recon. During 2013, Arctic sent out more than 0.1Gt of methane already, some people say. Official folks still say things like 0.017Gt or ~0.03Gt, etc. Either case, i definitely think this is something worth looking at in general, and also because of local short-term greenhouse effect of elevated methane athmospheric concentrations, which affects sea ice quite much (among other things).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 22, 2014, 09:14:34 AM
Nice interannual comparison, Michael!
meanwhile, I fiddled a bit with NCEP/NCAR temp anomaly over the 9.7 Mkm2 Arctic Basin for May until now. This year does have a firm lead in 'warming' over '12 and '13. (+1.4dC against both +0.8dC).
Remember that DMI only takes +80dNorth into account.  The Beaufort/Chukchi are the main regions for the remarkable difference  (+5dC!).
A solid basis for this year displaying that Pacific/Bering side melt front again.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 22, 2014, 10:52:33 AM
A view of the East Siberian Sea from on high earlier today. For comparison with earlier in the year see:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#ESS)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 22, 2014, 02:00:37 PM
The first signs of in situ melt water on the fast ice are appearing in the Bhuor Kaya Gulf, extreme Southern part of the Laptev Sea:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FLMr05c05day14222052014detail_zps44b5762e.jpg&hash=74b899f831d33ad0d452c98c83ed680c)

Look for the blueish hue against the dark coast in the mid-right section of this detail (r05c05 day 142).

Through mid-tone suppression (-60) the cracked structure of the fast ice is revealed. Melting of the remaining snow cover probably enhances that effect. River water is visible on most coastlines now, where it spreads over and under the ice, promoting melt.
ECMWF has adjusted its prediction for next week, the +15dC’s have been reduced to below +10. Nevertheless spring is back to stay in these parts.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 22, 2014, 07:16:09 PM
Just looked at the latest GFS 12z run which is very interesting!! This run favors more melting than the other ones have done earlier.. Will be very exciting to look at the EURO in two hours.. Just like the whole situation is right now it's exciting!!

ACFNS forecast looks very weird with a thickening of the ice in the quadrant north of Taimyr(!) Would be very surprised if that forecast holds the next days.. I'm expecting more melt and opening of the ESS and Laptev now.. Will be interesting to see if the heat succeeds to make a opening the whole way from Laptev to Berings strait before june 1... I expect the area in Laptev as Werther discussed to open up before june 1. The ice in the area of Svalbard is crap and my opinion is that the SIE from JAXA is somewhat overestimated due to those circumstances. Anyone who agrees with that or?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 22, 2014, 10:16:45 PM
The Euro and GFS are worlds apart.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 22, 2014, 10:44:05 PM
Friv: no kidding! :P Yes, they are and ECMWF is usually more reliable than GFS. However, high pressure systems will still give plenty of sun so we'll possibly see some melt but the CAA will likely be well protected and I'm rather confident that if there are no dramatic swings in the weather the Northwest passage will be closed this year too.. The AO will remain fairly neutral for the next 10 days or so and that's what I think will be significant for this melt season: mainly neutral conditions which will give us somewhat more conducive conditions for melting than 2013 but still not as favorable as we saw in 2007 and 2012...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 22, 2014, 11:03:28 PM
The only part where I feel confident the Euro is wrong is keeping a meridonial flow over the NATL but not keeping the -NAO ridging.

I can't buy that.

But I have no idea if the massive ridge the GFS has over the ESS is real versus the Euro having a vortex/slp there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 22, 2014, 11:11:57 PM
Friv: no kidding! :P Yes, they are and ECMWF is usually more reliable than GFS. However, high pressure systems will still give plenty of sun so we'll possibly see some melt but the CAA will likely be well protected and I'm rather confident that if there are no dramatic swings in the weather the Northwest passage will be closed this year too.. The AO will remain fairly neutral for the next 10 days or so and that's what I think will be significant for this melt season: mainly neutral conditions which will give us somewhat more conducive conditions for melting than 2013 but still not as favorable as we saw in 2007 and 2012...

I agree. This is how things currently look, presuming that this period is extremely important due to melt ponds etc.

It looked like ECMWF was becoming more steady, but it's back to fickle. A reversed Dipole would be cool though.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Errorr on May 23, 2014, 12:16:47 AM
Yay! Finally made it past the spam filter to register!

All the latest runs have the GFS outvoted past 120 hrs. The CMC, UKMET, and Euro have the low pressure settle over the Beaufort instead of migrating over the CCA. The gfs ensembles mostly agree as well.

The GFS also misses the High over the Barrents next week that the others are suggesting.

The GFS has been falling behind in accuracy over the past few years. The Euro has 10 times the computer resources still (and they get bonuses for beating GFS). The initializations are also superior. The US Navy NAVGEM even uses the UKMET data for its runs. The NOAA shortchanges their operational products budget wise to benefit the long term needs of the multi-decade climate models which have the prestige of "climate science" even though there is no shortage of supercomputers to run climate models.

In the end GFS is the most used because it is free by law evn though they have to run alot more products on their limited hardware. I can't justify a monthly fee to get the better Euro outputs from a website. The Euro charges somewhere north of 75k Euros for full data access but at least they don't have to rely on budget appropriations of a fickle congress to make sure their the best.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2014, 12:19:17 AM
The attached image from the following link shows that warm Pacific water is beginning to flow north through the Bering Strait:

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur (http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_daily.php?plot=ssn&inv=0&t=cur)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2014, 12:34:35 AM
The attached SSTA for May 21 2014 from the following link also confirms that warm Pacific water is slowly pushing north through the Bering Strait, and provides more resolution:

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/ (http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/ophi/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 23, 2014, 07:59:04 AM
The GFS has backed off towards the euro.  I was thinking about this compared to 2013 as May comes to a close but then I decided to see how it compares to the 2007-12 period and the results were very surprising.

Anyways.  I was expecting most years to have big high pressures sprawling over the arctic but that is not the case at all.

I posted the images over at americanwx.com.  But every year except 2012 was "favorable" for the ice.

I won't repost all of the images here but here is 2007-2011.  And the last image is 2014.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FmDLtfmO.gif%3F1&hash=a0cfcae744f52f28f136633682a1a23d)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FxRIn5Su.gif%3F1&hash=da9bf6c9fd833243b344a67c75497c41)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtxVgW2i.gif%3F1&hash=070b047694541531c849fe39954e6afe)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F0cspiEd.gif%3F1&hash=36980c02a4377647f25f43e5fd3fb912)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FlhRKfMe.gif%3F1&hash=fc149c9d451201a1b4e8f36248444a05)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fq75gtP1.gif%3F1&hash=5cd3939fda747b8c55a83908cabd5ebd)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 23, 2014, 11:41:53 AM
...
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fnsidc.org%2Fgreenland-today%2Ffiles%2F2013%2F08%2FFig2a_greenland_melt_area_201220131.png&hash=9d5ff2f2b766761f8595c1ba47ff5c51)
... And now, if 2014 will be similar or worse than 2012 (in terms of ice cover - which apparently is quite likely, reading this topic), then i'd say this graph will have a new high this year. And this means alot to sea level rise at very least, feeds back to Arctic ice cover dynamics (Greenland melt waters are very low salinity, i believe?), etc etc. ...
Quoting oneself is a bad manner, but this here case, i do it to underline the date i said that piece above - because, just 3 days after i said that, this got published: http://phys.org/news/2014-05-greenland-greater-contributor-sea.html (http://phys.org/news/2014-05-greenland-greater-contributor-sea.html) . Surprise, surprise... I've been saying for years already that they'll find more and more new mechanics which accelerate and increase Greenland melt, and it seems, now they've warmed up alright. I guess they'll get to the idea of large meltwater pulses - and their consequences, - in some 3...5 years. Under "they" here, i mean those nice smooth-paper journals, of course...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 23, 2014, 12:35:34 PM
Thanks, F.Tnioli, your post seems better suited for the Greenland-thread though.
On the developments in the Laptev Sea, Jim Hunt continued it on the 'area and extent calculations'-thread, posting a fresh day 143 acqua image centered on the Bhuor Kaya Gulf in front of the Lena delta.
Melt is progressing fast out there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Nightvid Cole on May 23, 2014, 03:26:29 PM
Is it just me or has very "smoky" air from Siberian fires now been pulled into the central Arctic?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014143.terra.4km (http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2014143.terra.4km)

Note the yellowish tinge in the central Arctic compared to either the Alaskan or Svalbard sides of the Arctic.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 23, 2014, 04:39:40 PM
Sorry Werther. Here it is again. The Aqua 7/2/1 (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-05-23&map=-13059.231663,1819422.384168,376316.768337,2007838.384168) view of the Lena Delta area this morning:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 23, 2014, 06:46:40 PM
Sorry Werther. Here it is again. The Aqua 7/2/1 (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?switch=arctic&products=baselayers,!MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands367,!MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_Bands721~overlays,arctic_graticule_3413,arctic_coastlines_3413&time=2014-05-23&map=-13059.231663,1819422.384168,376316.768337,2007838.384168) view of the Lena Delta area this morning:
The ice there should be getting attacked vigorously both top and bottom, I expect. Outflow should be pooling just under the ice, and possibly across the top of it in some places.  We can then add top melt and ponding from unusually warm air and insolation.  It may be losing 10CM/ day in some places.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on May 23, 2014, 06:48:57 PM
NV wrote: "Is it just me or has very "smoky" air from Siberian fires now been pulled into the central Arctic?"
That seems to be what RS is saying here: http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/arctic-heatwaves-rise-to-threaten-sea-ice-as-lake-baikal-wildfires-reignite/ (http://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2014/05/18/arctic-heatwaves-rise-to-threaten-sea-ice-as-lake-baikal-wildfires-reignite/)

Here's a consequence of Arctic Sea Ice Melt that I, at least, hadn't thought about before:


Trillions of Plastic Pieces May Be Trapped in Arctic Ice


Quote
Humans produced nearly 300 million tons of plastic in 2012, but where does it end up? A new study has found plastic debris in a surprising location: trapped in Arctic sea ice. As the ice melts, it could release a flood of floating plastic onto the world.

Scientists already knew that microplastics—polymer beads, fibers, or fragments less than 5 millimeters long—can wind up in the ocean, near coastlines, or in swirling eddies such as the Great Pacific Garbage Patch. But Rachel Obbard, a materials scientist at Dartmouth College, was shocked to find that currents had carried the stuff to the Arctic.

http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2014/05/trillions-plastic-pieces-may-be-trapped-arctic-ice (http://news.sciencemag.org/earth/2014/05/trillions-plastic-pieces-may-be-trapped-arctic-ice)

Thanks to COBob at RS's site for the link.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 23, 2014, 11:28:11 PM
NPEO webcam 1 seems to have come a cropper:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpsc.apl.washington.edu%2Fnorthpole%2FNPEO2014%2FWEBCAM1%2FARCHIVE%2Fnpeo_cam1_20140523172640.jpg&hash=05b9840f8bb578a8d5c073f23e1e74b8)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AbruptSLR on May 23, 2014, 11:41:11 PM
The attached SSTA image for May 23 2014 from cci-reanalyze (see link) shows the warm Pacific Ocean water continuing to pass north through the Bering Strait:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php# (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/DailySummary/index_ds.php#)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 24, 2014, 09:50:31 AM
Another clear view of the Laptev Sea (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Laptev) and the Lena Delta this morning:

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 24, 2014, 02:24:30 PM
Posted under the correct thread this time...

Comparing 24 May 2012

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticictn%2Fnowcast%2Fictn2012052318_2012052400_035_arcticictn.001.gif&hash=11ffba6072b78b78fb5f727ef57f1dc1)

and 24 May 2014.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticictn%2Fnowcast%2Fictn2014052318_2014052400_039_arcticictn.001.gif&hash=7d023b12bd59c6890c979641f168759c)

I can't help but get excited at the prospects for the early part of this melt season due to conditions in the Siberian sector.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 24, 2014, 03:22:55 PM
Area and extent have slowed in dropping.

However The Hudson, Baffin/St. Lawrence sea way are above normal.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 24, 2014, 03:58:15 PM
Area and extent have slowed in dropping.

However The Hudson, Baffin/St. Lawrence sea way are above normal.

Indeed, and if melt ponds are so crucial this month, I would say that the melting season hasn't been broken (like 2013), but not exactly made either, ie maybe a new record has already been made impossible. But it also depends on where all the melt ponding takes place. With that reverse dipole and the high over the Siberian part of the Arctic (instead of the American side), it looks like most of the melt ponding will occur there in this final phase of the month of May.

The Bard says: Nothing is either good or bad, but thinking makes it so.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 24, 2014, 04:05:22 PM
I agree with both ChrisR and friv21, above; my own immortal words, copied over rom the blog...

"I think that the fast melt off Alaska is a delayed symptom of the heatwave in Alaska in January and February, when temps were actually above freezing for some time.

Looking through the previous years plots, it seems to me that in Chukchi, ESS and Laptev, the closest parrallel to this year is neitherr 2012, nor 2013, but 2007.

2014 differs from 2007, in that the Atlantic side looks much weaker than then, similar to all recent years.

FWIW, I think that we are going to see a spectacular melt all along Eurasia, with the Northern Sea Route open for a record long period; and the possibility of clear blue water at the Pole.

OTOH, it has been abnormally cold for recent years everywhere in the quarter from the Pole to due South and due West. I think that the Hudson Bay will clear late; the melt in the Baffin Bay will be slack; and the NW Passage through the Canadian Archipelago may not clear at all.

And if none of the above happens, I shan't be terribly amazed, and I'll blame the weather. Sea ice is, I find, a very disobedient substance, which very rarely sees fit to do as it's told."

... not quite Shakespeare, I fear. But immortal in the sense that the internet never forgets.

P.S. ...though you can occasionally edit things, so I can add the following equally irrelevent...

The Moving Finger writes; and, having writ,
 Moves on: nor all thy Piety nor Wit,
Shall lure it back to cancel half a Line,
 Nor all thy Tears wash out a Word of it.

The Rubaiyat of Omar Khayamm
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jbatteen on May 24, 2014, 06:07:42 PM
I suspect that the Hudson Bay ice is a consequence of the frigid North American winter and spring, and that it's not of much consequence to the greater Arctic sea ice scenario.  Once it melts out, area/extent numbers will be back down quickly.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 24, 2014, 09:04:38 PM
Posted under the correct thread this time...

Comparing 24 May 2012

<snippage>

and 24 May 2014.

<more snippage>

I can't help but get excited at the prospects for the early part of this melt season due to conditions in the Siberian sector.

While the Navy Hycom models have weaknesses when used to quantify the state of the ice, watching them for the last two years I sense they are useful in predicting the quality and behavior of the ice.  For example, the models did a good job of predicting the shattered state of the pack around the pole as it evolved last August.

Used as a reference against itself, year over year, I similarly sense again at a qualitative level, it does a reasonable job of identifying relative weakening and strengthening of the pack, and as you note, the news is not hopeful.

While the Kara appears to have thickened marginally by 20-30CM, and similarly in Hudson Bay, it implies most of the pack is 50 to 100CM thinner.  Across the greater portion of the Laptev and ESS, it shows as much as 150-200CM thinner.  Even if this is to generous by a significant margin, it indicates a huge vulnerability in the pack, which is about to be smashed by conditions which could chew away as much as 5CM of ice a day.  Even if conditions become much more favorable as they did last year, I do not think this is something this portion of the pack can recover from.  The disappearance of the ice will have an amplifying effect on melt elsewhere, regardless of weather, and will be a dynamic which I don't believe has been seen this early.

Considering idunno's comment, in *spite* of comparatively colder conditions over the CAA and NE North America, in fact over the historic record, they were not that extraordinary.  I think we would find the apparent cold stands out only by way of recent context, where we have become more accustomed to milder winter season weather over all.

Even if we see slack melt conditions in Baffin Bay, there is less ice over all there to melt out; further the ice in Hudson bay is not notably thicker that I can tell as compared to past years.  I don't see ice there lingering much longer than usual, if at all.  If conditions agreeable to ice retention persist in those areas, I think it bodes ill for the ice in others; for them to stay cold, cold conditions will need to be displaced from elsewhere.

I do concur though, that even if there are cool conditions, there will likely be spectacular melt all across the Eurasian margins of the Arctic, from end to end.  Too little ice is going to be exposed to too much heat for too long, too early.  It is yet to be seen, but that may undermine relatively cooler conditions elsewhere in the pack, with or without melt ponds. 

If we see the kind of massive melt out we are expecting across the ESS/Laptev/Kara region, combined with record melt out that has *already* transpired in the Bering and Chukchi,  I think we are still in serious danger of breaking the 2012 record.  There remains very little good news. Far too much heat is entering the region from multiple sources.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 24, 2014, 10:06:01 PM
JD Allen,

Quite right, I take HYCOM in a qualitative sense as a reasonable guide to conditions. The main problem I see with it is overestimation of MYI thickness, in recent years with a lot of FYI it's been tying to around 2m thick for FYI in March/April fairly well, I presume we can take the scaling between 0 and 2m as reasoably accurate.

Idunno,

Using April PIOMAS gridded data 2012 is similar to 2014, in the Siberian sector this year April was more like 2011. I have noted before that it may not be a good idea to get too fixated on small differences in thickness. But seeing HYCOM now I suspect that by May PIOMAS too will show 2014 being one of the poorest ice states in the Siberian sector.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 24, 2014, 11:20:29 PM
I think if one would know one area of the Arctic would melt out early and another late, but could select which does which, I think an early peripheral and late central melt would be better for long-term ice survival. After all, the periphery will always melt out completely, and then the water will just warm up - and later radiate that warmth into space. On the other hand, in the central Arctic, ice will either melt or not, which influences the future ice volume. And if water warms up there, it would be cooled again when it meets and melts neighboring ice (and that also impacts future ice).

Or is my thinking wrong on this?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 24, 2014, 11:29:29 PM
Thanks Chris,

That changes my mind about the similarity of 2007/2014. On CT both years have anomalous open water in the Laptev/ESS area, and a rapid retreat in Chukchi, whereas 2012 actually had high early season ice area in both Chukchi and Bering. But I agree that those 2007/2014 thickness plots are different.

Sticking with my view that Hudson will melt later - it will melt, but later - and skew the early to mid season comparison with data from recent years, when very early Hudson melt has previously caused an early exaggerated negative anomaly.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 25, 2014, 08:15:49 AM
idunno,

I think the differences in open water formation at the start of the season that you outline are due to weather. Which alone shows that weather is critical. As I've found in trying to make predictions based on April thickness/volume, April thickness/volume defines the long term downward trend in extent/area, but there is significant 'noise' due to weather. This can make two years look the same in terms of extent/area even when the thickness fields are very different.

This year I suspect that May thickness off the Siberian coast may be enough to cause a rapid retreat through June, weather allowing.

Ambivalent,

I've recently posted a blog post outlining why due to the Central Arctic region tending to a ~2m thick April state we may see a reduction in winter volume loss rates and an ice free state in the late 2020s, rather than around 2020.
http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/what-is-future-of-arctic-sea-ice-part-2.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/what-is-future-of-arctic-sea-ice-part-2.html)
Whether or not this will be enough to delay transition to a seasonally sea ice free state I can't say. I do think we're seeing the start of a reduction of loss rates due to more of the pack becoming first year ice (~2m thick by April), but I cannot say how thinning in the Central Arctic will continue to respond. In the 1990s Central Arctic summer melt was around 4k km^3, by 2012 this had increase by 50% to around 6k km^3, for summer melt to be almost as much as the volume implied by an equilibrium thickness of around 2m requires an increase in summer melt to over 9k km^3, approximately a further 50% increase.

Given the high albedo of ice much of the sunlight hitting it is reflected so doesn't go into making more melt. I wouldn't rule out that a further 50% increase in absorbed sunlight could lead to a further 50% increase in melt volume (or thinning) during the melt season. That is all that is needed in the Central Arctic to melt most of the ice by September.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 25, 2014, 10:15:03 AM
The ice in ESS and Laptev are quickly weakening now. Soon we'll have a huge opening there. What it'll mean for the rest of the melt melt season I've no idea about but it'll ceertainly be very interesting to see.. This will allow the SSTs to spike quickly then... Not to forget that the opening will have about 4 months to warm up.
 
f one look closely at the ESS at Hamburg pics one can see that the coast line in ESS is on track to connect with the Beaufort Sea in a while. Will the ice in ESS and Laptev be gone by May 31? THAT would be exciting!! I think that JAXAs numbers for SIE is too high given what's going on in ESS, Laptev and between Svalbard and Franz Josefs land..
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 25, 2014, 04:27:30 PM
Numbers are still high because the Baffin, Hudson, Greenland sea, and st lawrence sea way area are all above normal.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: AmbiValent on May 25, 2014, 05:27:17 PM
Chris,
you might be right that - looking only at the Arctic itself - the ice loss could slow down once warmed water there radiates out into space when the ice is concentrated in the most central section of Greenland, Archipelago and North Pole. Whether other, positive, feedbacks would be stronger, I don't know. However, to keep the ice alive it still needs decent winters where the Arctic is really cold, not those that allow massive exchange between polar and temperate areas. And I fear we're getting more of those.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 25, 2014, 09:42:22 PM
And how about increased ice mobility?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 25, 2014, 10:30:42 PM
And how about increased ice mobility?

My WAGs'

I think this is likely to continue the fall in average ice age and therefore there is less time for mechanical processes to thicken up MYI.


I doubt it will lead to an increase in ice volume export. If the volume export continues to stay approx constant then it becomes a bigger proportion of the ice that is left and maybe same volume export means more thinner ice so there is more open water formation in Central Arctic as a result of export changes.

However I think volume export is more likely to decline than increase. For next two or three years I suspect volume export is most likely to stay roughly the same.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 25, 2014, 10:41:42 PM
the models are trending back worse again.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 25, 2014, 10:54:07 PM
Sorry, Chrisses, (Reynolds here and Biscan on the Blog), I don't completely buy the 'it's all down to weather' line, having got my inocculation during the 2012 melt, when parties off tried to explain the record minimum entirely by reference to one weather event.

The initial starting conditions of the health of the ice exert huge influencing limits on what weather can do, imho. Otherwise, a strong cyclone in August 1980, say, could have caused a massive crash in ice area and extent back then.

Yes, it's all down to how the pieces move in the course of the game; but also the layout of the board has changed. Due to climate change.

In this year, it seems to me that white (ice) has a strong defensive position in the SouthWestern quadrant (Lincoln, Atchipelago, Baffin, Hudson); black (water or heat) is confronted with pathetically weak defences everywhere else.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 25, 2014, 11:06:39 PM
Ambivalent,

How other feedbacks will play in - frankly I don't know. But if one takes the winter loss of volume in the Central region and extrapolates then it implies ice free winters by 2040 (i.e. in the 2030s), I can't see how that can happen, based on what is happening now (a pre-requisite for trend extrapolation). One issue that is relevant is that much of the central Arctic volume loss in the past has been from thinning of MYI, with FYI volume throughout the whole Arctic Ocean actually increasing. Something has to give. But what will happen to summer losses - I don't know.

Neven, Ambivalent,

Increased sea ice mobility hasn't, as far as I know, led to increased volume export through Fram, because the ice exported is thinner volume export has remained variable but without a large increase. That leaves the Beaufort Gyre, as Crandles (I think) pointed out a couple of years ago ice entering the central arctic can go one of two ways - Fram or Beaufort Gyre. If Fram export hasn't changed much then that leaves Beaufort Gyre. There is a paper that found about 1/4 to 1/3 (I forget) of MYI export (by extent) from the central Arctic is into the Gyre, where in summer (post 2007) most/all of it melts out - a major source of loss of increased MYI loss is through this path. In the past ice would have been cycled and aged before ending up back in the transpolar drift and up against the CAA and northern Greenland. I should add that the paper I just mentioned concludes by observing that some of the loss of MYI extent is probably due to mechanical compaction off the CAA.

So, and sorry for being long-winded getting around to this, what is needed is not just cold winters. During the Holocene Climatic Optimum (~6k year BP) the summer Arctic was virtually ice free. This was driven by insolation changes which caused an increase in summer insolation, with a commensurate decrease in winter insolation. Winter insolation decrease wouldn't affect the pack - it's dark in winter, but it would be expected to reduce warmth coming in from surrounding continents with reduced winter insolation. Even if I'm wrong on that, the point remains that with just summer increase in insolation (unlike AGW) the Arctic Ocean was seasonally (virtually) ice free.

I suspect that key to this is the Beaufort Gyre, without a reduction of melt out during the summer from Beaufort to the ESS there is no hope of a recovery of sea ice. Because for a recovery MYI has to start to survive and age until it fills the 60 to 80% of the Arctic basin that it did in the past. Even with colder winters it's hard to see how ice is going to thicken up enough to start surviving what has become regular melt outs in the peripheral seas around the central Arctic. I've been trying to find a better graph but can't locate it - the one I wanted was a plot of thermodynamic thickening as a function of temperature. The only one I can find is a plot of heat flux through ice (vertical axis) as a function of thickness (horizontal axis) at a series of temperature differences between the atmosphere at the surface of the ice and the ocean at the base of the sea ice - image attachment.

The point in showing this is that it shows that thickness is a far more dominant factor than temperature over heat flux through the ice, and heat flux through the ice is the factor that drives accretion of new ice at the ice/ocean interface. So I don't think that cold winters are what's needed because alone they cannot regenerate the sea ice, they have a relatively small impact on ice thickness at the end of the winter. What's needed to regenerate the pack are cold years - and short of a massive eruption (e.g. flood bassalt) or a run of massive plinean volcanic eruptions, or other similar force majeur - that just isn't going to happen.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 25, 2014, 11:13:04 PM
The initial starting conditions of the health of the ice exert huge influencing limits on what weather can do, imho. Otherwise, a strong cyclone in August 1980, say, could have caused a massive crash in ice area and extent back then.

No need to apologise -  I agree with you.

It's just that thinner ice and the resultant increase in open water formation efficiency with resultant increased sensitivity to weather forcing is such a part of my 'mental furniture' I don't feel the need to say it every time.

Maslanik et al 2007 "A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss"
http://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~scia30/2008/SOURCEBOOK/2007_Maslanik_GRL.pdf (http://sites.fas.harvard.edu/~scia30/2008/SOURCEBOOK/2007_Maslanik_GRL.pdf)

Quote
The replacement of older, thicker ice by younger, thinner ice over much of the Arctic Ocean, combined with cumulative effects of warming, unusual atmospheric circulation patterns, and resulting intensification of the ice-albedo feedback, contributed to this large and abrupt loss of ice. Taken together, these changes suggest that the Arctic Ocean is approaching a point where a return to pre-1990s ice conditions becomes increasingly difficult and where large, abrupt changes in summer ice cover as in 2007 may become the norm.

2007 - seems an age ago....

PS - there are two or three volume loss events as big as 2007 and 2010 in the 1980s and 1990s - but the ice was thicker then so they didn't affect area/extent.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 25, 2014, 11:39:54 PM
One unusual feature about this early melt season is the open water at high latitudes: in the Chukchi Sea, northern Baffin Bay, Laptev and Barents:
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FDmTliM4.png&hash=9c83bbffa8dca74493d0cea16f41a82a)
While the area is relatively small, it could have a disproportionate effect on the Arctic heat budget owing to a counterintuitive (to me, anyway) feature of insolation: the polar regions receive the most energy near the solstice.  Though Tamino didn't provide a key for this graph (from his 2012 blog post (http://tamino.wordpress.com/2012/10/01/sea-ice-insolation/) on Sea Ice Insolation), the trace I infer to be one month before the NH summer solstice - second from top on right side - indicates that locations north of about 70* will have a high and increasing insolation for the next several weeks.  (The graph is probably for top of atmosphere, hence some unverified assumptions about insolation at the surface.)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FIobzcjs.png&hash=28e7743d3782240ca4d7fc4d9ec0bb61)

What does that mean for the pockets of open water?  In the Chukchi Sea it's centered on about 67*N, near the latitudinal dip in the graph - though insolation here will increase quite a bit from now to solstice.  Northern Baffin Bay is higher on the curve at 75*N.  However, ocean currents don't seem to promote much effect on ice to the north from excess heat in this location.  Heat advection into the core ice region is more likely from Laptev and Barents, where the open areas are close to 80*N: just about maximum insolation.

Question remains of how much sunlight will actually hit that open water in coming weeks, and on that subject my crystal ball is cloudy.
Net: one more indicator on top of others that point toward an early melt on the Siberian side, and an extremely lopsided distribution of ice at the September minimum.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 26, 2014, 12:29:26 AM


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FwaAzAAu.gif&hash=6c42ad92911382e941eaf942b009b790)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: TerryM on May 26, 2014, 05:11:27 AM
ChrisR
I think that if you read any of Dr. English's studies of driftwood on Ellesmere Island you will be convinced that during the Holocene Optimum summer ice was still extant and rafting Siberian logs to Canada. That would not be possible under what most would consider to be virtually ice free conditions.
While Fram Strait's ice volume may be relatively constant the opening of Nares and in 2012 the opening of the CAA to MYI heading south might make a difference to retained volume.
Keeping my eye on Nares ever since PII2012 headed for warmer climes.


Terry



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 26, 2014, 08:14:45 AM
Terry,

I've not read all of England's work, I'm basing that claim on the following paper....

Jakobsson et al 2010. "New insights on Arctic Quaternary climate variability from palaeo-records and numerical modelling" http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379110003185)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ffarm9.staticflickr.com%2F8477%2F8270685488_354df119b5_o.jpg&hash=8d61b8a82935a345535a9265754b3ad0)

And from the abstract.
Quote
The combined sea ice data suggest that the seasonal Arctic sea ice cover was strongly reduced during most of the early Holocene and there appear to have been periods of ice free summers in the central Arctic Ocean

England is referenced as showing that there was no land fast ice prior to 5500 year before present.
Quote
England, J.H., Lakeman, T.R., Lemmen, D.S., Bednarski, J.M., Stewart, T.G., Evans, D.J.A.,
2008. A millennial-scale record of Arctic Ocean sea ice variability and the demise
of the Ellesmere Island ice shelves. Geophysical Research Letters 35.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2014, 08:20:54 AM
And how about increased ice mobility?

My WAGs'

I think this is likely to continue the fall in average ice age and therefore there is less time for mechanical processes to thicken up MYI.


I doubt it will lead to an increase in ice volume export. If the volume export continues to stay approx constant then it becomes a bigger proportion of the ice that is left and maybe same volume export means more thinner ice so there is more open water formation in Central Arctic as a result of export changes.

However I think volume export is more likely to decline than increase. For next two or three years I suspect volume export is most likely to stay roughly the same.

I think we may need to define what constitutes export.  While we focus primarily on the Fram and Nares, this year I've watched a steady march of ice into the Barents Sea through the Svalbard/Franz Joseph/Nova Zemlya gaps.  Pre-2000 or so, ice sent through there would simply stack up in the Barents which previously was much colder.  Now, with SST's as much as 1 or 2C even in the depth of winter, that ice gets chewed up promptly.  Put this way, the ice we see currently in the Barent's is not the same ice we were looking at a week ago.  That ice got pushed south and was replaced.  Good evidence for this can be seen in the drift "shadow" - gaps in the pack on the leeward side of Franz Josef land and Svalbard.

I think this implies a dramatic increase in export of of the CAB, possibly as much as is being exported through the Fram.  I think also, we can draw a direct relation between the ice exported here, and the gaps we currently see opening across the Laptev, ESS, possibly even the Chukchi.  Exported MYI made space for much thinner lead ice to form.  Most recently, that export has permitted leads to open, which have *not* been recovered by fresh ice.  The ice in those regions hasn't melted in place; it has shifted.  The new export into the Barents I think is the proximate cause of the open water.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 26, 2014, 09:07:47 AM
Iceman,

I agree with you, but am not sure how 'lopsided' the distribution of ice will be in the context of recent years. Ice in the peripheral Siberian seas (ESS to Barents) has typically melted out in most post 2007 years. If it does melt out early it holds out the possibility of significant inroads into the Central Arctic.

Looking at the last ten days....

There is already an anomaly warming over ESS/Laptev where the ice is receding.
(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5537/14271593924_99cf765734_o.gif)
Lower left quadrant of that image.

This warming is seen to be low level, but is part of a warm/cold split higher in the atmosphere.
(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5112/14085377438_beb91c10f6_o.gif)
Despite the activity higher up I think it is safe to assume that the low level warming above average in ESS/Laptev is due to the reduced sea ice and ice albedo feedback in the area.

The SLP plot shows that a dipole formed between low pressure over the Atlantic Sector and high pressure over the Pacific sector has drawn the ice away from Siberian coast.
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3771/14248906136_77329ccd06_o.gif)

Looking at 500mb geopotential height (GPH) (heights of the atmosphere where pressure is 500mb) the pattern reflects SLP.
(https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3796/14268702321_47cfb87607_o.gif)

For the same period in 2007, which preconditioned for the crash of that year, GPH is similar.
(https://farm6.staticflickr.com/5040/14248906096_81b0e81f49_o.gif)

However 500mbGPH for the whole of May so far is not so similar to the same period in 2007. So the recent similarity may not mean anything in terms of the season to come. However the current set up seems to support aggressive ice albedo feedback in the Siberian sector provided the weather continues to move ice away from the coast and low pressure remains over the Atlantic sector, with high pressure over the Pacific.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 26, 2014, 09:38:38 AM
User-friendly color ice thickness maps compare for this May, posted yesterday in Arctic News:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F4.bp.blogspot.com%2F--gj_pcDavsw%2FU4GZa0gjJlI%2FAAAAAAAANTU%2FZRLtVi1UmWY%2Fs1600%2Fthickness.gif&hash=3300130df8510f31433ec87d8942f3a5)

By the way, i've read in a few places that general trend for % of cloud cover for increasing temperatures - is reduction (i.e., in general, the higher air temperature is, the less clouds there would be, on average). I wonder, does it apply to Arctic summer conditions (much open water and the Sun being abovethe horizon 24/7): all the extra evaporation sounds like a possible source for more moisture in the air, possibly forming more (and not less) clouds. How often it would overcome increasing moisture "capacity" of warmer air, i don't know. Any thoughts on this, i'd read with much interest.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 26, 2014, 10:33:40 AM
Dr Slaters' latest 50 day lead time prediction was run on 24 May 2014, 50 days from that is 13 July 2014. From the graph here:
http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/ (http://cires.colorado.edu/~aslater/SEAICE/)
The prediction for 13 July 2014 is about 8.2M km^2, however this is in terms of NASA Team algorithm which is not the same as NSIDC Extent. NASA Team algorithm data is available here:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/ (ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/)
Owning page is
http://nsidc.org/data/smmr_ssmi_ancillary/area_extent.html#smmr_ssmi (http://nsidc.org/data/smmr_ssmi_ancillary/area_extent.html#smmr_ssmi)

The problem is that (as often happens for me with NSIDC data) both IE9 and Chrome are failing to download the data - so I can't say how the prediction by Dr Slater compares with previous years. If I have more luck later I'll post - but maybe someone else will have more luck getting that data to download.  The dataset I'm trying to get is this one:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/gsfc.nasateam.daily.extent.1978-2012.n (ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/gsfc.nasateam.daily.extent.1978-2012.n)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 26, 2014, 10:50:16 AM
Huge huge model changes on both the GFS and Euro.

WoW.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F3uf0Ddw.gif&hash=33667ba17324c3c3b162def8884d2039)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 26, 2014, 12:15:36 PM
If I have more luck later I'll post - but maybe someone else will have more luck getting that data to download.  The dataset I'm trying to get is this one:
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/gsfc.nasateam.daily.extent.1978-2012.n (ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0192_seaice_trends_climo/total-ice-area-extent/nasateam/gsfc.nasateam.daily.extent.1978-2012.n)

no problem at moment - if you are struggling try
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzpGniYbi4anQnhQT2pSWHlGOEE/edit?usp=sharing
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 26, 2014, 12:34:15 PM
Huge huge model changes on both the GFS and Euro.

WoW.

If this comes about, it will be fireworks. But I thought the same last week, and then things flipped.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 26, 2014, 01:20:21 PM
Despite the activity higher up I think it is safe to assume that the low level warming above average in ESS/Laptev is due to the reduced sea ice and ice albedo feedback in the area.

Good insights, Chris.  If ice albedo feedback is a primary cause, we could expect anomaly warming near the Siberian coast to become a recurring feature of the early melt season in coming years.

btw this early-season open water at high latitudes seems to be a corollary of the open water formation efficiency that you investigate on Dosbat.  The actual location of open water will be more random than the %OW trend itself, as influenced by less predictable factors such as
   ice mobility;
   changing export dynamics as described by jdallen upthread;
   atmospheric pressure/circulation patterns.
When the open water does appear at high latitudes, though, it's a positive feedback especially around the summer solstice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 26, 2014, 06:52:51 PM
Thanks Crandles,

Using that data and keeping in mind that Dr Slaters prediction for 13/7/14 is 8.2M, the NASA Team Algorithm extents for 13 July from 2000 to 2012 are:

2000   9.93
2001   9.25
2002   9.61
2003   9.43
2004   9.80
2005   9.07
2006   8.67
2007   8.20
2008   9.12
2009   8.81
2010   8.37
2011   7.76
2012   7.95

So that puts the central point of Dr Slater's prediction between 2010 and 2011.

Actually comparing your copy of the NASA Team data to NSIDC Extent shows they're pretty close most of the time.

NSIDC Extent
2000   9.77
2001   9.25
2002   9.61
2003   9.43
2004   9.72
2005   9.08
2006   8.67
2007   8.20
2008   9.04
2009   8.81
2010   8.37
2011   7.76
2012   7.91
2013   8.28

And post 2010 - i.e. starting from 2011 - 2011 and 2012 show drops below previous years, which ties in with my obsession about the 2010 PIOMAS volume loss event - I don't recall spotting that before in NSIDC data. 2013 is obviously higher for reasons already established.

But Dr Slater's prediction for 13 July 2014 puts this year more in line with 2013 and the pre-2010 years, not ahead of 2013. Not sure if that sways my opinion of the prospects this year but it's something I'll be bearing in mind. My prediction based on April PIOMAS volume and my assessment of the state of the ice there still persuade me we'll see a large melt out with a lot of ope water off Siberia by mid July - more open water than Dr Slater's plot of estimated probability of ice. Between the two of us it's probably my assesment that's wrong, not his numbers.


Iceman,

I've not had the time to look for similar warmings in past years. I'm halfway through doing an analysis (per grid box) of the first date that concentration drops below 15% off the Siberian coast, I suspect that when I finally get round to finishing it I'll find earlier open water in that region in recent years. If I do (and my suspicions are more often wrong than right) examining low level warmings may be an interesting extension to the study.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DaddyBFree on May 26, 2014, 07:02:42 PM
Significant breakup of fast ice is occurring off the coast of Alert today. For anyone interested in seeing the difference between yesterday and today: https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 26, 2014, 07:28:37 PM
Neven, Friv,

ECMWF from WetterZentrale now gives ensemble middle (I suspect this is the average of the ensemble) and standard deviation.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html)

i.e.

500hPa,SLP - Ensemblemittel - seems to be the ensemble average (for the lurkers see below re ensemble)

500hPa Ensmittel und Standardabw - seems to be the ensemble middle in contours and I think "Standardabw" is short for "Standardabweichung" which is German for 'standard deviation'.

This additional data isn't available for GFS, only for ECWMF.

The 'ensemble' is a set of model runs, they are started with identical (or near identical) initial conditions and run forward to see how much deviation occurs with time between the different runs. This then tells how chaotic or stable the atmosphere is (or how sensitive to small variations in initial conditions the atmosphere is) - I'm not sure exactly how GFS do it.

Anyway, if the standard deviation is small in the region around the area of interest then things will probably pan out as the model is predicting because all ensemble members are producing closely the same thing. As time moves on in the dates of prediction the scatter of the model always widens - you can see that already in the plots of standard deviation for the coming week. But if the standard deviation doesn't widen too much (compared say to the differnce of height between a trough and ridge making a dipole) then dipole like behaviour, if indicated to persist probably will.

Another useful trick is simply comparing GFS and ECWMF - seeing if different models say the same thing.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 26, 2014, 09:22:37 PM
Both the GFS and Euro now go full on ridging by day 3 and then explode it as we go along.

Book it.  Without a cold core PV it's going to happen.

The cold core in summer will die without a cyclone to produce massive clouds.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 26, 2014, 09:27:18 PM
frivolous, probably somebody said it before, but I really like the passion you put in your forecasts.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2014, 09:50:47 PM
Huge huge model changes on both the GFS and Euro.

WoW.

If this comes about, it will be fireworks. But I thought the same last week, and then things flipped.
The Sumo match continues...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2014, 10:20:17 PM
Using that data and keeping in mind that Dr Slaters prediction for 13/7/14 is 8.2M, the NASA Team Algorithm extents for 13 July from 2000 to 2012 are:
<snippage>
So that puts the central point of Dr Slater's prediction between 2010 and 2011.

Actually comparing your copy of the NASA Team data to NSIDC Extent shows they're pretty close most of the time.
<more snippage>
But Dr Slater's prediction for 13 July 2014 puts this year more in line with 2013 and the pre-2010 years, not ahead of 2013. Not sure if that sways my opinion of the prospects this year but it's something I'll be bearing in mind.

I'll bring up my stock market metaphor again.  While weather is modestly more predictable than human behavior, a lot of energy is spent trying to forecast markets on information which while based on previously observed behavior, is founded more on correlation than cause.

With respect to Dr. Slater, I am suspicious of these projections.  The dynamics of the system have changed massively over the last decade, and as the previous two years demonstrated, are amazingly volatile.

The "buffer" - the volume of sea ice in the system - has diminished to the point that relatively modest changes can shift events quite radically.  The prediction is far more of a dice roll now.


My prediction based on April PIOMAS volume and my assessment of the state of the ice there still persuade me we'll see a large melt out with a lot of open water off Siberia by mid July - more open water than Dr Slater's plot of estimated probability of ice. Between the two of us it's probably my assesment that's wrong, not his numbers.

Dr. Slater's numbers demonstrate a great deal of thought, and by extension definitely are representative of previous behavior.

However, that's an awful lot of open water at high latitude Right Now, being exposed to weather highly conducive to capturing more heat.

I continue to think your arguments and assessment are more persuasive, and are more reliable in that they are based on current conditions, rather than extrapolations which are based on past behavior where ice states and weather have only gross similarity to those we see now.

I think the once we go past 2011, we exponentially decrease the utility of past ice conditions in predicting the future.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Meirion on May 26, 2014, 10:24:09 PM
I think 2014 is quite confusing - can see Northern Sea Route opening up earlier than ever yet temps north of 80 North after warm winter show signs of another cold summer like 2013 - and no melt-out at the Pole
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 26, 2014, 10:53:02 PM
Fantastic break-up in the Lincoln Sea visible on MODIS today!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DaddyBFree on May 26, 2014, 11:16:06 PM
Fantastic break-up in the Lincoln Sea visible on MODIS today!

I agree! It is very dramatic, and is continuing to unfold as the day progresses.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 26, 2014, 11:38:10 PM
A pretty picture of the break up in the Lincoln Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#CAB (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#CAB)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 26, 2014, 11:43:36 PM

With respect to Dr. Slater, I am suspicious of these projections.  The dynamics of the system have changed massively over the last decade, and as the previous two years demonstrated, are amazingly volatile.

The "buffer" - the volume of sea ice in the system - has diminished to the point that relatively modest changes can shift events quite radically.  The prediction is far more of a dice roll now.

...

Dr. Slater's numbers demonstrate a great deal of thought, and by extension definitely are representative of previous behavior.


I was impressed by how well that method worked just from cell concentration with no knowledge of what nearby cells were doing.

Having said this 50 days is quite short term.

It seems quite possible that that 50 day period is within a predictability window but that the method might lose skill rapidly if you tried to increase the forecast lead time to 60, 70 or more days. From volume max to volume min it might not be a good technique. For a season ahead, volume is likely to be a better predictor. Still impressed with how well it worked.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: diablobanquisa on May 26, 2014, 11:46:49 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.meteociel.fr%2Fim%2F3274%2Fbreak_dqe0.gif&hash=a7a2a3c14b7643b1e5b5506ddf0befa0)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 26, 2014, 11:49:36 PM
Thanks for the co-operation, Jim, DB. I took this detail from ECMWF:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FECMWF500hPaGeo850hPatemp26052014_zpsdc0436d3.jpg&hash=67765d2faa8177917ef5dfc6b7369743)

A bit unexpected; a low under a mid-level trough/vortex pulling air from the South over Ellesmere Island. Eureka at +4dC today, Alert +1dC. This may end tomorrow, but just look what weather can do!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: RunningChristo on May 26, 2014, 11:53:02 PM
And all this due to the lowpressure currently hoovering just North of the Candadian Achipelago Islands?! Give me a hard time believing the ice at those Places is 4-5 meter...just cracking in suh a short time span (Yeah I am aware of the clouds making eyevision hard lately, but anyhow!), amazing no matter!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2014, 11:54:46 PM
I was impressed by how well that method worked just from cell concentration with no knowledge of what nearby cells were doing.

Having said this 50 days is quite short term.

It seems quite possible that that 50 day period is within a predictability window but that the method might lose skill rapidly if you tried to increase the forecast lead time to 60, 70 or more days. From volume max to volume min it might not be a good technique. For a season ahead, volume is likely to be a better predictor. Still impressed with how well it worked.
Absolutely, crandles.

I think with this though I can explain how it is I'm not as certain of Dr. Slater's prediction.

I've been wondering about how much of a difference large areas of open water at high latitude make in energy capture, considering the large areas currently appearing all along the Northern Sea Route.

To that end, I've been entertaining myself with some thumb-nail calculation sketches to approximate and to some fashion quantify the net increase in energy being captured, in order to understand the potential effect on the pack.

So, rough factors I'm using are these.

Albedo (via NSIDC) - Ocean       0.05
        - Bare Sea Ice           0.5
        - Snow covered Ice   0.9
       
To be modestly generous, I'll assume most of the ice is snow covered, for an effective average albedo of 0.85

Currently, the total daily flux hitting the areas that have become exposed is running on the close order of 14KWH/Day/M2 - that converts out as approximately 50,000 KJoules/Day, assuming a latitude of about 75N.

(nice on-line insolation calculator I found here: http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation (http://www.pveducation.org/pvcdrom/properties-of-sunlight/calculation-of-solar-insolation) )


That is enough energy to melt about 0.15 cubic meters of ice.  Distributed evenly over one square meter, that means about 15CM of ice.

Applying the Albedo values, heat captured by our estmated ice (average Albedo of about 0.85) is enough to melt 2CM of ice/snow a day. The loss to Albedo lowers the captured energy in sea water to about the equivalent of 15CM. These are of course idealized values, but still establish the contrast in effects I am trying to illustrate.

So obviously, the impact of having open water under sunlight in the region is huge, and the capture of energy it represents would be enough to entirely melt out 2M thick ice covering an area of equivalent size in approximately 14 days.  Fortunately, we have the negative feedback of cloudiness to save the ice from such a direct exposure of heat.  The change in albedo will still have profound impact regionally.

Evaluated regionally, roughly comparing the open water to the remaining coverage of ice in the ESS, Laptev and Kara, the open water and reduced concentration implies ~ 15% open water across them.  That modest increase of 15% open water translates into a 60% regional increase in potential heat capture, regardless of weather. 

Succinctly, my thumb-nail estimate leads me to conclude that relatively small amount of additional open water at a minimum doubles the potential for energy to enter those regions via sunlight.

Scale up as appropriate for increased open water, and higher latitude.

I think this by itself makes predictions much, much more vulnerable to the vagaries of weather.  Open water this early has potential to be an exponential multiplier of later melt.


(Sidebar - my fiddling with albedo also puts Neven's comments regarding melt ponds into perspective as well.  Much of my observations about open water apply similarly to melt ponds. Assuming slightly higher albedo, 20% melt pond coverage regionally could similarly translate into about a doubling of potential energy capture.)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 26, 2014, 11:56:10 PM
Fantastic break-up in the Lincoln Sea visible on MODIS today!

I agree! It is very dramatic, and is continuing to unfold as the day progresses.

Snap! Crackle! Pop!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 27, 2014, 06:46:47 AM
Quite spectacular, indeed. I coincidentally had a first look at LANCE-MODIS satellite images yesterday and it was the first thing I saw. That's what you get with a high stuck on the other side.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 27, 2014, 07:28:24 AM

The 00z GFS is terrible.

Major insolation coming to the arctic basin.

Nothing like 2013.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 27, 2014, 02:04:21 PM
A fairly clear view of the Mackenzie Delta (http://greatwhitecon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201314-images/#Beaufort) yesterday:
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 27, 2014, 02:39:56 PM

Currently, the total daily flux hitting the areas that have become exposed is running on the close order of 14KWH/Day/M2 - that converts out as approximately 50,000 KJoules/Day, assuming a latitude of about 75N.
....
Succinctly, my thumb-nail estimate leads me to conclude that relatively small amount of additional open water at a minimum doubles the potential for energy to enter those regions via sunlight.
....
Much of my observations about open water apply similarly to melt ponds. Assuming slightly higher albedo, 20% melt pond coverage regionally could similarly translate into about a doubling of potential energy capture.)
That's a useful quantification; however it does not represent a net increase in energy capture.  As long as air temps remain well below freezing, the lower albedo of open water also means it will radiate more heat than the surrounding ice (i.e. when overcast or the sun is low over the horizon).

The albedo difference (compared to ice) for open water is greater than for melt ponds; the area currently might be either more or less depending whether you go by Rosel & Kaleschke figure 3b,
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFAlo2oY.png&hash=590f2d70a421120b1d5d0335db217fe5)

or by the CICE simulation (from www.nature.com (http://www.nature.com)), which has a markedly different time distribution.
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FQZy6CLW.png&hash=20a3fdb10743520f4aa4dc7daa459ec0)

In either case the huge seasonal swing - and interannual variability - in melt pond area will make it the more dominant factor around the solstice.  The early open water in northerly latitudes is worth keeping an eye on, though, as an unusual feature of the 2014 melt season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Chuck Yokota on May 27, 2014, 03:13:39 PM
Quote
That's a useful quantification; however it does not represent a net increase in energy capture.

I would disagree; that immediate patch of water might not have a net increase in energy, but there will be an increase in the total energy of the area, whether due to back radiation of the radiated energy, or in the latent energy contained in evaporated water.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: crandles on May 27, 2014, 03:33:39 PM
Quote
That's a useful quantification; however it does not represent a net increase in energy capture.

I would disagree; that immediate patch of water might not have a net increase in energy, but there will be an increase in the total energy of the area, whether due to back radiation of the radiated energy, or in the latent energy contained in evaporated water.

Some of the radiation will escape to space rather than eventually going into melting the ice. Likewise when the water vapour changes back to water, some of the heat given off will radiate to space rather than going back down where it does have a chance of melting some ice. It is useful but not all of it goes into melting ice. I am not sure if it is possible to do some calculation to estimate what proportion of sensible heat in melt ponds goes into melting ice. The proportion will obviously vary depending on cloud conditions, melt pond depth, humidity, wind speed and ....
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 27, 2014, 03:34:08 PM

I would disagree; that immediate patch of water might not have a net increase in energy, but there will be an increase in the total energy of the area, whether due to back radiation of the radiated energy, or in the latent energy contained in evaporated water.

You're right, I meant to say "the" net increase.  Open water (vs. ice) will cause a net increase in total energy, just not as much as the amount calculated from insolation only.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 27, 2014, 04:22:54 PM

The 00z GFS is terrible.

Major insolation coming to the arctic basin.

Nothing like 2013.

Yes, ECMWF is pretty consistent too. This time a classic high will pave the way for a rendez-vous of Sun and Beaufort Sea (and much more). I hope to do an update in the coming days. I think this is where the similarities with 2013 stop. But it's not 2012 either.

When can we expect the effect to become visible in SIE/SIA numbers?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Patrick on May 27, 2014, 06:42:49 PM
Neven, Friv,

GFS from WetterZentrale now gives ensemble middle (I suspect this is the average of the ensemble) and standard deviation.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsecmeur.html)

i.e.

500hPa,SLP - Ensemblemittel - seems to be the ensemble average (for the lurkers see below re ensemble)

500hPa Ensmittel und Standardabw - seems to be the ensemble middle in contours and I think "Standardabw" is short for "Standardabweichung" which is German for 'standard deviation'.

This additional data isn't available for GFS, only for ECWMF.
...
Typo, Chris?

Anyway, just to clear things up. Wetterzentrale also has ensemble charts available for the GFS, but because of the sheer mass of parameters, the ENS has its own tab (http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html). Additionally you can find there a combination of GFS and CMC ensembles (40 Member).

Also of interest might be the "Diagramme" tab, which holds ensemble charts for big cities and grid points like the one of London attached below.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 27, 2014, 06:50:31 PM
Quote
That's a useful quantification; however it does not represent a net increase in energy capture.

I would disagree; that immediate patch of water might not have a net increase in energy, but there will be an increase in the total energy of the area, whether due to back radiation of the radiated energy, or in the latent energy contained in evaporated water.

Some of the radiation will escape to space rather than eventually going into melting the ice. Likewise when the water vapour changes back to water, some of the heat given off will radiate to space rather than going back down where it does have a chance of melting some ice. It is useful but not all of it goes into melting ice. I am not sure if it is possible to do some calculation to estimate what proportion of sensible heat in melt ponds goes into melting ice. The proportion will obviously vary depending on cloud conditions, melt pond depth, humidity, wind speed and ....

Absolutely!

My intent was to understand inputs into the system over all.  I absolutely agree it will not all go into the ice.

 I may quibble a bit over radiative losses, especially if it is cloudy.  My key take away here is, as a "rule of thumb", the system is subjected to an additional input of about 5% of energy for each 1% of decrease in ice concentration, all else being equal.

Where that energy ends up is of course subject to examination.  The lions share will be picked up by the water itself, which as it is completely open, will tend to disperse it through the water column.  Increased heat will lead to increased re-radiation; I was keeping that in mind.  However, that is happening whether the sun is shining or not, which is why I chose to summarize the input as a daily contribution, rather than just look at the peak radiance.  Certainly incidence angles will make a difference, but we are not dealing with flat planes and perfect uniform surfaces, especially with open water.  The net loss from refraction should by nature be much smaller than it would on a solid surface.

The effect of the increased energy won't be prompt (e.g. causing immediate massive ice melt).  The ice melt numbers I used were to give a tangible illustration of potential effect, not actual.  It will show up indirectly in behavior in a system which has much more sensible heat to move around. Sorry if I was unclear about that.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 27, 2014, 07:06:02 PM
A small quibble; areas with an open water surface do not, by definition, have any ice in them. Okay, it may be adjacent; but much of the extra energy accumulated due to albedo change will not be used to melt ice, because there is no ice at hand to be melted. It may prevent these areas refreezing later in the Autumn, or some other kind of mischief.

@Neven. I don't think a rapid plunge in SIA or SIE numbers is on the cards while 80°N temps, as per DMI are well below climate average.

@The Arctic Sea Ice... Wouldn't you like to try FOR ONCE not doing the precise opposite of what I"ve just said I think you're going to do?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ChrisReynolds on May 27, 2014, 07:10:59 PM
Thanks Patrick, I'd missed that ENS data for GFS - so both GFS and ECMWF have ensemble mean and std dev.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: helorime on May 27, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
There appears to be quite rapid melting, not just movement, in the Kara, looking at the last few days MODIS images.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 27, 2014, 09:16:59 PM
Seeing as folk have taken an interest in ensemble forecasting, I thought I'd suggest meteociel as a good site to use. Their GFS ensembles are particularly useful http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php (http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php)

You can go through each member run just like the operational and you can view the panel maps from all ensemble members at once here http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=6 (http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=6)

The ensemble mean and spread maps are also very handy for locating the areas with the greatest forecasting uncertainty.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F6rCMpa6.png&hash=571fa41fcaa8b5f2ed6551e4e5f037be)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 27, 2014, 10:24:02 PM

@Neven. I don't think a rapid plunge in SIA or SIE numbers is on the cards while 80°N temps, as per DMI are well below climate average.

Not exactly, idunno. If you check previous years, you'll see that in most cases temps were below average too around this time. Yes, temps are low, but slowing down of melt rates has more to do with melt in peripheral zones slowing down, which in turn has to do with the atmospheric set-up.

And this set-up is about to change to one that is usually very conducive to melting. This should have an effect on SIE/SIA decrease rate, especially if peripheral stuff comes on-line (to borrow a term from the oil industry).

BTW, I had been using the CCI ClimateReanalyzer tool (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php) for GFS 2m temp forecast, but I'm seriously starting to doubt whether it is functioning correctly. Does anyone else have that too, and/or know a better tool?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 27, 2014, 10:24:45 PM
Superficially, the ice right now bears a reasonable resemblance to 2011

http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=24&fy=2011&sm=05&sd=24&sy=2014 (http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/print.sh?fm=05&fd=24&fy=2011&sm=05&sd=24&sy=2014)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JayW on May 28, 2014, 12:02:11 AM


BTW, I had been using the CCI ClimateReanalyzer tool (http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/index_gfcst.php) for GFS 2m temp forecast, but I'm seriously starting to doubt whether it is functioning correctly. Does anyone else have that too, and/or know a better tool?

Have you tried instant weather maps?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ (http://www.instantweathermaps.com/)
  Some stuff is free, some requires a subscription.  I cannot speak to it's accuracy, but from what I gather, sites like this extrapolate 2m temps from the upper air data.  The varied programs/algorithms/formulas used likely leads to differences between different sites while still using the same data from the same models.  Perhaps it helps.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 28, 2014, 12:31:08 AM
Thanks for the tip, JayW.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 28, 2014, 12:55:54 AM
Most of the melt at this time of year is typically on the Atlantic side and the current set up is pushing cooler air and exporting ice towards the Atlantic.  The bad conditions for ice are mostly hitting the Pacific side of the Arctic, and I don't see much potential for signficant reduction in extent yet.  The ice is fairly compact up to the coast still and as it starts to melt it will tend to spread out.  Unless winds are pushing offshore.  I think this factor also affects area as it takes some spreading of the ice pack before any noticeable reduction in concentration is registered.  Also note at some stage the large area of fast ice on the ESS coast will fragment and this will temporarily tend to reduce the open water area that has formed in this region.  The first week of July in 2007 was the earliest I've seen significant open water form within the Arctic basin on the Pacific side.

What I will be closely watching is for the appearance of the 'June Cliff'.  Looking through Cryosphere Today large areas of reduced concentration - presumably melt ponds - started appearing around the Beaufort to ESS from about the 2nd week in 07 and 12.  I would expect that the current set up should produce air temps a little above freezing at ground level, and high insolation, so should be a good to start melt ponding.  Whether its enough to register with the CT sensors I don't know, and it will be interesting to see if the June Cliff can be initiated a week earlier than either 07 or 12.

I've also noticed that Hudson bay is being hit by quite warm temperatures, and has been for a week or so.  The ice is still above average and only a moderate reduction in area so far.  Not sure if thats because of thick ice because of the Arctice vortex taking its walk into N America, or if the Hudson is always hot by this time of year and the current conditions are typical. 

However the polyna at the north side of the Baffin bay area seems to be larger than most recent years despite the presumed effect of the vortex in winter, and no particularly favourable conditions for melt that I've noted so far this spring in that region.   I'm guessing there is warm water there.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 01:23:14 AM
Because we are still transitioning to Summer.

Heights and ridging are most important imo.

temp forecasts past day 3-4 are way unreliable. 


There is also no hint of freezing fog over the kara/Laptev the last 2-3 days.  The melting under the fog is probably bad bad.


Next a large HP is fully formed and parked over the beaufort side by day 3 and the flow is from the ESS poleward.  But the HP isn't progged to move at all but yet get stronger and warmer with heights rising.

Then possible going basin wide in the medium range.

BOTTOM LINE: no PV then no 2013 or cold summer.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JayW on May 28, 2014, 02:36:38 AM
Thanks for the tip, JayW.
My pleasure, in going through my weather model bookmarks I came across the experimental FIM model available at the Earth Sciences Research Laboratories.  I believe it is based on GFS physics, and it's experimental.  Just another option.  Just make sure to use "New arctic" for the domain (arctic yields no results).  And, not all the model variations are available.  But it's free, and no advertisements.

Temps are in Fahrenheit, I like how it outlines the freezing line though
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_jet&domain=201&run_time=27+May+2014+-+12Z (http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=fim9_jet&domain=201&run_time=27+May+2014+-+12Z)


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 09:17:18 AM
MOTHER OF GOD.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F0QENCW5.gif&hash=04c58ab79be68aa558b3c2d9d44753e2)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 28, 2014, 09:53:20 AM
A small quibble; areas with an open water surface do not, by definition, have any ice in them. Okay, it may be adjacent; but much of the extra energy accumulated due to albedo change will not be used to melt ice, because there is no ice at hand to be melted. It may prevent these areas refreezing later in the Autumn, or some other kind of mischief.
...
As we have less and less ice up there - it becomes more and more mobile. Ocean itself has water currents, as well. I don't think most of the open water which now gets all the extra energy - will stay in the same place all the way up to "later in the Autumn". Plus, mixing goes on - not just in the ocean itself, but also through evaporation/precipitations, as well. A warm shower from above or a big mass of warm water from below, - can melt alot of ice whenever such ice "gets into the area", or the warmed-up area itself "moves to some other place which still has surface ice.

"Surface ice" words also remind me that there is also non-surface ice - such as frozen sea floor of east siberian arctic shelf. Some 1300+ Gt (possibly times more, estimates vary) of methane clathrate there, and i doubt it all will stay frozen if whole water column of this shallow (and big) ocean shelf - gets warmed up up to some 10+ (or even, 20+?) dC.

In general, i'd say that as long as most of Arctic ocean has surface ice - much, if not most, of extra energy which open-water areas get - will end up melting more ice before the end of the current melt season; only when somewhat about half or more of Arctic ocean is ice-free - only then most of extra energy absorbed would possibly end up doing what you call "some other kind of mischief".
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 28, 2014, 10:19:39 AM
MOTHER OF GOD.

It strikes me that you've been posting exclamations similar to this on an almost daily basis for the last few weeks, during which time the ice melt rate has slowed quite noticeably.  Does this give you any pause for consideration?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 10:55:20 AM
You are literally making things up about what I post and I do not appreciate it at all.  It's rather insulting to be honest.

If you don't like my enthusiasm when the models show a butt pattern I understand but it's not all I post.  And insinuating that is really unfair.

Here is all of my posts in this thread since May 18th.  To say I am pimping ice death patterns on almost a daily basis is extremely disingenuous.  The past 36 hours sure.  And the models show a big change to a terrible pattern.  Just like they did 10 days ago and it didn't materialize.  Did I post almost on a daily basis about how the arctic was wrecked?

absolutely not.

Quote
May 18th: Lasts nights euro was the worst late May pattern I've ever seen.

Quote
May 19th: Good view of the ESS region today.

Remember it's May 19th.

Quote
May 19th: The Euro doesn't just rock the arctic the next week.

The ESS and Latpev are going to get seriously crushed as we end May.  I have no idea how fast the melt can take off in combo with the off shore/dipole flow.  But the potential is there for a whole whole lot of open water to form between the Laptev and ESS under predominantly sunny skies.

On top of that in a few days the snow cover in those areas will be decimated and surface warming will explode.  The models are already showing high temps in the 10-15C+ range along the ESS/Laptev shoreline in the medium range.


Lastly the Euro also shows major ridging forming around day 6-7 over the GIS/NA side.

It's nasty and a carbon copy of the 2007-2012 GIS -NAO regime.

Quote
MAY 21ST: The Euro has dramatically backed off from it's bad solutions.  It's still bad for the ESS and Laptev but even then it's not as bad for the ESS near as much as it was just a day ago.

I also thought way more snow would be gone by now in Eastern Siberia it's holding on very strong for so much WAA.

It's melting out way faster around the Laptev.  I guess the low elevation of the Laptev region is to blame there.


Forecasts call for above freezing temps over the Eastern half of Russia day and night going forward with even 10-15C+ high temps reaching the arctic basin starting tomorrow by Tiksi.


Quote
MAY 21ST:  Yeah the MYI is protected completely.  The flow from the Pacific side to the Atlantic side is cut off except along the Russian side.

The 00z GFS shows HP trying to take over after day 5 or so.


Quote
May 22nd:
the models continue to trend better in the short to medium range.


But they don't form a vortex or drop the -NAO

Quote
May 22nd- The Euro and GFS are worlds apart. 

The only part where I feel confident the Euro is wrong is keeping a meridonial flow over the NATL but not keeping the -NAO ridging.

I can't buy that.

But I have no idea if the massive ridge the GFS has over the ESS is real versus the Euro having a vortex/slp there.

Quote
MAY 23RD-  The GFS has backed off towards the euro.  I was thinking about this compared to 2013 as May comes to a close but then I decided to see how it compares to the 2007-12 period and the results were very surprising.

Anyways.  I was expecting most years to have big high pressures sprawling over the arctic but that is not the case at all.

I posted the images over at americanwx.com.  But every year except 2012 was "favorable" for the ice.

I won't repost all of the images here but here is 2007-2011.  And the last image is 2014.

Quote
MAY 24TH
Area and extent have slowed in dropping.

However The Hudson, Baffin/St. Lawrence sea way are above normal.


Quote
May 25th-Numbers are still high because the Baffin, Hudson, Greenland sea, and st lawrence sea way area are all above normal.


Quote
May 25th- the models are trending back worse again.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 28, 2014, 11:06:23 AM
I did some more analysis looking at the distribution of 7 day extent drops using the NSIDC data, but this time I used the rolling 5 day average to try and get rid of any spurious jumps. I also looked at each individual month of the melt season, rather than the whole. What I found was quite interesting.
The 7 day losses for the first 3 months of the melt season show little significant difference between the first 7 years of the record (in blue) and the last 7 (in red).

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F9ac5tOc.jpg&hash=868793c31cf84bd220c2a85e717c4f54)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FX8o231N.jpg&hash=4a1ba46cc6aa5890b431b433831fa337)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FNlGTlHX.jpg&hash=8eb80ced28c7e302116cff35be4e98f9)


June and July is when things begin to diverge significantly. In the first decade July had the most rapid melt rate by a long way, but it seems in recent years that it's been brought forward to June and enhanced in July, as the graphs below show.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FWzhZPf3.jpg&hash=9c6eb7c67984b2a094fbec0fd64085d1)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVRkvCHy.jpg&hash=6fa937b2a95afa08990c3a6882ad759b)

The distribution then returns to a similar state to the first 7 years in August

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FYeGivof.jpg&hash=664448b163cc3c0d3663209a04288a90)

In fact, June and July are the only months that show a significant increase in the melt rate overall, with August showing a slight increase and April and May near identical (very slight reductions in melt rate).

Average 7 Day Loss
Month:  First7 | Last7
April:    226.3k | 215.2k
May:    352.3k | 346.3k
June:   340.5k | 500k
July:    577.2k | 705.3k
Aug:    436.6k | 489.6k


This sort of backs up the idea that we shouldn't see anything dramatic or telling before June
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 11:19:46 AM
the ice is above normal in the Hudson, Baffin, St. Lawrence Sea Way area which is a huge amount of ice extent roughly estimating 3 mil or so. 

2010 and 2011 were way lower at this time in those regions combined and 2014 is still 4th lowest on Jaxa to date.

a quick look at a visible sat image or one of those jaxa or arco images shows the basin has been chopped up good.

If the only analysis that one is doing is numerical you are missing so much.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww7320.nrlssc.navy.mil%2FhycomARC%2Fnavo%2Farcticictn%2Fnowcast%2Fictn2014052718_2014052800_039_arcticictn.001.gif&hash=0738ae79fb192b643412be348b47838d)

And now the models start the Beaufort high pressure and show no signs of letting up.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 11:23:53 AM
I apologize to Peter Ellis for going off a bit.  I understand my eccentric and sometimes electric posting style when I get excited can overshadow the rest of my analysis and contributions here. 

I hope everyone realizes for us weather based sea ice analyzers prospects can radically change overnight and make us look foolish quickly.

I will push the worst case weather more then benign weather.  I will also push the best case weather more then benign weather.

It's the nature of the beast.

I err on the side of destruction because we have seen so much of it since 2007.

I have tried to incorporate ensemble forecasting into my posts more but it's so dull in the medium range.  I know its more reliable but still.   ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 28, 2014, 11:27:50 AM
Quote
And now the models start the Beaufort high pressure and show no signs of letting up.

If this comes about as forecasted, SIE/SIA should drop big time for as long as it lasts. Mother of God or no.

And as long as friv announces when the models back off, I thoroughly enjoy and condone his colourful descriptions of what lays ahead. I find short-term watching of the Arctic the most fun of all.

PS Nice distribution maps, BFTV! Might use that comment for a blog post.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Pmt111500 on May 28, 2014, 11:39:16 AM

In fact, June and July are the only months that show a significant increase in the melt rate overall, with August showing a slight increase and April and May near identical (very slight reductions in melt rate).

Average 7 Day Loss
Month:  First7 | Last7
April:    226.3k | 215.2k
May:    352.3k | 346.3k
June:   340.5k | 500k
July:    577.2k | 705.3k
Aug:    436.6k | 489.6k


This sort of backs up the idea that we shouldn't see anything dramatic or telling before June

Kind of what I've seen also. My gut says there should be a telltale signal of big melt years quite early on but where is it? As far as I know no one has managed to connect f.e. ENSO or NAO to the amount of melt.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 11:44:56 AM


Quote
I find short-term watching of the Arctic the most fun of all.


I totally feel the same.  It can get easy to get wrapped up these medium range major melt solutions.


To explain why I said Mother of God:

48 hours:  We see the Pacific side having an HP develop over it with slowly rising heights and warming temps.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2Fu9y9yGU.gif%3F1&hash=74f9c2531479a47fbf1e3636535da6c4)


96 hours:  We quickly transition to a large HP over the Beaufort and a classic dipole over 2/3rds of the basin.  Heights slowly rising and warming.  Russia side really getting it good.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2ay4tyS.gif%3F1&hash=e267d68eb8835c0a313d6283dc498bf5)

144 hours: Same config, rapidly warming, heights also starting to shoot up.  Ice loss would be picking up with consistent winds blowing poleward/Atlantic side.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtcM6RUm.gif%3F1&hash=f08146cdfff1f94b994a435f6a96b58f)

196:  all out chaos as huge ridging taking place on the NA SIDE.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FThucSf6.gif%3F1&hash=e33419eed5ca65ddeab9157832f634ca)


240 hours:  MEGA DEATH TORCH:  NO WORDS NEEDED, SPEAKS FOR IT SELF.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FtWXZOM8.gif&hash=76b13fb0d16cfb8bceca3baf5e9f81a3)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 28, 2014, 11:48:41 AM
I apologize to Peter Ellis for going off a bit.  I understand my eccentric and sometimes electric posting style when I get excited can overshadow the rest of my analysis and contributions here. 

I hope everyone realizes for us weather based sea ice analyzers prospects can radically change overnight and make us look foolish quickly.

I will push the worst case weather more then benign weather.  I will also push the best case weather more then benign weather.

It's the nature of the beast.

I err on the side of destruction because we have seen so much of it since 2007.

I have tried to incorporate ensemble forecasting into my posts more but it's so dull in the medium range.  I know its more reliable but still.   ;)

I've had in interest in numerical weather predictions for many years, and in general, it's always worthwhile comparing between models in the short term, and then adding in the ensemble spread beyond 4 or 5 days. When you do that, you'll find that the prospects won't change overnight quite as often as they seem.

Perhaps it's from studying similar things in Uni, but I find more calm and reasoned assessments much more useful than exclamations of shock and awe when the GFS shows something bad or unusual at 5 to 10 days, only to backtrack in the near term (as it so often does!).

I understand that it's quite tempting to try and grab peoples attention when you see these destructive weather patterns forecast, especially when coupled with the knowledge that the sea ice is on its last legs. But, you don't want to end up like the boy who cried wolf :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 28, 2014, 11:54:34 AM
It's very alluring to be anticipating and following the records when they come so close to each other.

2012 was very exciting.  It's hard for it not to be when you expect the science to be right.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 28, 2014, 11:56:56 AM
The models seem consistent enough that we can be fairly confident of seeing some significant high pressure at warm enough temperatures for surface melt for at least a good slice of the next week.

I've done a bit more hunting through Cryosphere Today history, and 2007 and to a lesser extent 2012 stand out as having wide areas of reduced concentration within the pack (and not just near the edge) that I believe is caused by melt ponding.  In 2007 the start is about June 7, and now it looks like we may see the same thing happen even earlier this year.  Whether we see the double whammy of big high pressure and hot atmosphere temps (i.e. yellow to red on the 850 temp or 500 thickness charts) is yet to be seen, but I think big high and mild temps that we look certain to get is dramatic enough.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on May 28, 2014, 12:50:39 PM
@JayW - CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!! YOU ARE THE 10,000th POSTER ON THE ARCTIC SEA ICE SECTION OF THIS FORUM!!!!!!! PLEASE CONTACT NEVEN TO CLAIM YOUR PRIZE OF SOD ALL!!!!! Congratulations also to Neven, DungeonMaster, and all involved.

@friv21. I find your explanation of "Mother of God" very useful. But for the meteorologically challenged, like me, just posting a weather map, and "Mother of God" - well you mght as well post it in Sumerian cuneiform; and it would mean as much to me.

@Tnivoli - I occasionally lapse into euphemism when worried about that which lurks beneath the ESS seabed. Hence "mischief".

And I think there's at a guess, about a 50/50 split within the Arctic Ocean between ice covered/open water at the minimum. Some of that open water is hundreds of kilometres away from the nearest ice.

Take for example the Kara Sea. By August that may all be open water, an at an albedo of 0.05, down from 0.9. But it's only the butterfly effect that I see causing that extra energy to affect the remnant ice in the Canadian Archipelago. At a rough guess, the distance is something like the distance from London to the Mediterranean.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 28, 2014, 01:03:32 PM
@JayW - CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!! YOU ARE THE 10,000th POSTER ON THE ARCTIC SEA ICE SECTION OF THIS FORUM!!!!!!! PLEASE CONTACT NEVEN TO CLAIM YOUR PRIZE OF SOD ALL!!!!! Congratulations also to Neven, DungeonMaster, and all involved.

Well done, JayW. Here's your prize:  :-*

Quote
@friv21. I find your explanation of "Mother of God" very useful. But for the meteorologically challenged, like me, just posting a weather map, and "Mother of God" - well you mght as well post it in Sumerian cuneiform; and it would mean as much to me.

Ignorance is bliss.  ;) ;D
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on May 28, 2014, 01:36:44 PM
I apologize to Peter Ellis for going off a bit.  I understand my eccentric and sometimes electric posting style when I get excited can overshadow the rest of my analysis and contributions here. 

I hope everyone realizes for us weather based sea ice analyzers prospects can radically change overnight and make us look foolish quickly.


friv --

I always look forward to your posts and, yes, I for one realize they all have an implied "If this comes to pass." attached to them.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 28, 2014, 02:09:32 PM
I like the discussion and posting this time of the year. It is never certain where summer weather will head in shaping the properties of a melt season.

Initially I expected the weak ‘winter power’ and FI the likely ENSO event to support a strong but not record melt, preluding a record ’15 season. As always, that could pan out differently. It may not even be a ‘traditional El Nino’-event that should be regarded as a main driver for Arctic weather this summer. At the moment, the immense warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska might be of far larger weather importance.

As it is, the strong tendency for deep, anomalous ridging could be of record relevance for the Arctic this season. And the one Friv calls a sort of ‘Mother of all Ridges’ seems to go off soon, culminating around the 5th of June. A bulge of relatively warm air, arching over Alaska, the Beaufort Sea and the Northern parts of the CAA, fed from the GoA-warm pool.

Maybe it won’t produce the same descent of SIE as during June-July ’07 on it’s own. But as a steering pattern is often quite resilient, more ridging like this has high probability.

Anyway, this could be a very interesting ride to witness. Through the last four seasons I gathered a lot of MODIS material for June-September. I’ll start comparing the ice quality soon!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 28, 2014, 06:20:24 PM
MOTHER OF GOD.

It strikes me that you've been posting exclamations similar to this on an almost daily basis for the last few weeks, during which time the ice melt rate has slowed quite noticeably.  Does this give you any pause for consideration?
Friv may be on of our exclamatory posters, but that *IS* a rather disturbing forecast. It places very powerful high pressure directly over the worst place to have it (the Beaufort) at about the worst possible time.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 28, 2014, 06:39:32 PM
PS Nice distribution maps, BFTV! Might use that comment for a blog post.

They do provide very considerable food for thought. It seems to raise some questions about some of our assumptions pertaining to early conditions and their impact on the season.

It has me trying to think of ways to track net energy input, as indirectly that is what BFTV's graphics lead me to.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 28, 2014, 06:48:03 PM

In fact, June and July are the only months that show a significant increase in the melt rate overall, with August showing a slight increase and April and May near identical (very slight reductions in melt rate).

Average 7 Day Loss
Month:  First7 | Last7
April:    226.3k | 215.2k
May:    352.3k | 346.3k
June:   340.5k | 500k
July:    577.2k | 705.3k
Aug:    436.6k | 489.6k


This sort of backs up the idea that we shouldn't see anything dramatic or telling before June

Kind of what I've seen also. My gut says there should be a telltale signal of big melt years quite early on but where is it? As far as I know no one has managed to connect f.e. ENSO or NAO to the amount of melt.

Here's my take... There is no signal.  There IS however, progressive loading of the dice in favor of melt.  That loading is seen in the increased sensible heat in the arctic, and net reduction year over year AND season over season of total ice volume.

At each transition we roll the dice (follow the weather) and each time there is that much more of a chance for box cars.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 12:43:35 AM
The OP euro has backed off from the mega death ridge in the medium range(day 10+) but both the GFS and EURO have the dipole running strong and warming faster then before.

Expect the warming faster up until we are a day or two out.  Models have major issues with low level heating in the cryosphere this time of year with the albedo change.

The winds of course will generally be bad but the worst part will be the sunshine.

widespread waa and sunshine. The beaufort will be hit methodically with this set up. 

The ESS hit the hardest.  Going to see some big open water in the ESS which has already been primed.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Errorr on May 29, 2014, 01:07:55 AM
A note about the numerical models. The one thing to remember is that the models have been consistently improving over the years as the computers get more powerful. For the deterministic models which are what most people look at the grid area has been consistently shrinking which has allowed greater accuracy. There are diminishing returns to smaller grids but computer power has been growing exponentially since the 70s (Moore's Law). A decade ago anything beyond 5 days was pretty bad. ECMWF has just transitioned to 13km grids and that should have helped general accuracy. The GFS is wonderful because it is free but their grid spacing is much smaller as they run longer models on 1/10th the compute power. The GFS was once the gold standard but for the past few years it has been out preformed by the ECMWF, CMC (Canada), and UKMET.

The UKMET has focused a lot on better initialization inputs which is why the US Navy NAVGEM uses their data for its model. For the continental US/NA the 4 day mesoscale model is the primary forecast source and a much more accurate version. You can sometimes get some arctic data from the CAA from that.

Most models are very good out to 7 days although anything after 5 days the ECMWF really outshines the GFS. Anything beyond that the ensemble forecasts are superior but are better at telling you what won't happen than what will. If the 40 member ensemble all agree there is a persistent dipole then it will suggest that that feature is a sure thing but it won't really be good at telling you where the dipole will be.

Another caveat, this is the worst time of year for accuracy of any weather model. As the ITCZ migrates north it brings extra chaos to the entire planets weather. ENSO makes it worse as convection shifts around the globe and the jet streams migrate in wonky ways.

I take anything over 120hrs with a huge heap of salt this time of year.

All that said I am riveted by a good (bad?) forecast that says someone is about to crank up a hairdryer and fry the CAA no matter how likely I think that is.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 01:23:50 AM
We should note the GFS is about to have a major upgrade in resolution like the GEM last year or the year before.

That will help.  The GEM is still largely terrible in the arctic.

over amplifying everything.

However the GEM has been showing major ridging total opposite of what I saw out of it last year.


with the GEM and JMA on board this is becoming a high percentage happening.

A May 30th-June10th??   Beaufort dominated ridge is bad news bears.


If this extends out to June 20th the ice would be in a terrible state then. 

We have to keep an eye on any model output showing a PV developing over the pole or NA side.  It has to be singular and big otherwise it would be a reverse dipole at best and most of those have massive torching on the Russian side. 

which is better then Atlantic flushing but nothing beats a vortex like 1996 and 2013.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmeteocentre.com%2Fmodels%2Fgemglb_hnord_12%2FGZ_PN_240_0000.gif&hash=10e70d5efdc8332515cb6a77f521b65b)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Michael Hauber on May 29, 2014, 01:26:49 AM
I doubt much will happen in the ESS in the next week or two.  Significant open water generally does not appear until July and it isn't even June yet.  The center of the high pressure is in Beaufort, so the maximum sunshine and warming from sinking air will be elsewhere.  And the winds are mostly parrallel to the shore, so the ice won't be strongly pulled away by wind.

And there is still a huge chunk of fast ice in ESS that will tend to spread out if it melts.

Perhaps a change to forecast could shift the wind direction to pull the ice away, and perhaps it won't be hot enough to break up the fast ice for a little while yet.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on May 29, 2014, 04:23:07 AM
I appreciate the many posts friv21 makes. They often help me understand a bit more.
Here are my 2c on the topic, keeping in mind that I'm an awful amateur and hope not to offend.

.Perhaps it's from studying similar things in Uni, but I find more calm and reasoned assessments much more useful than exclamations of shock and awe when the GFS shows something bad or unusual at 5 to 10 days, only to backtrack in the near term (as it so often does!).I understand that it's quite tempting to try and grab peoples attention when you see these destructive weather patterns forecast, especially when coupled with the knowledge that the sea ice is on its last legs. But, you don't want to end up like the boy who cried wolf :)
Personally, I find the use of text size, color and caps lock distracting and somewhat like shouting in a discussion. There is there implication that this is somehow more important than the posts that other people make. 
This may not be true (and I doubt that is what friv21 thinks), but that is the effect of the overuse of this formatting.

@friv21. I find your explanation of "Mother of God" very useful. But for the meteorologically challenged, like me, just posting a weather map, and "Mother of God" - well you mght as well post it in Sumerian cuneiform; and it would mean as much to me.
 
I too am rather inept at reading GFS ECMWF and UKMET forecasts, so, some of the expressions of astonishment mean rather little to me and leave me somewhat perplexed, like idunno, a couple of sentences explaining why it is bad would mean a lot to me.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 06:51:30 AM

Snow cover finally taking the big dive.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F128.6.226.99%2F%7Enjwxnet%2Fpng%2Fdaily_dn%2F2014148.png&hash=dc3dbe639593b5bf877f9c549406062b)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 07:34:25 AM

00z GFS continues to bring the pain.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F76qtE65.gif&hash=9c93cea4edbc0ebf9fa27afbc51323d8)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 07:48:27 AM
So this is last year at the same period.  Starting out much much different than 2013.


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FyAL49E0.gif&hash=bb786f25f5f66d5715d76afeab7afead)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 29, 2014, 08:08:43 AM
I've just added the latest SLP pattern map to the mix (https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/may):

(https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/slp-patterns/SLP20140519-25.gif?attredirects=0)

Next 1 or 2 should prove interesting.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 29, 2014, 09:04:38 AM
The ECM show high pressure building over the Beaufort sea area in the near term, but keeps the particularly damaging patterns out at t144 and beyond, so not to be taken too seriously at this stage.

High pressure taking control of the Arctic in 2 days, with a transient upper level ridge over Hudson Bay (seen by the yellows and oranges) which is likely to carry warm air over the region.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLwRZuhx.png&hash=d09eed5ae20fbbb687278d75dc8f17ef)


The high pressure begins to anchor itself over the Beaufort sea at 5 days out, which is the set up for a pattern capable of strong melt, as it can lead to warm air eventually getting pulled in through the Pacific side, melting and pushing the ice toward the Atlantic side, like in 2007.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FjFDJJPz.png&hash=f6976269f610d3855b92a1e28f8d134c)


But the bad pattern doesn't really take hold, and remains beyond 5 days, so isn't particularly reliable yet. Nothing particularly bad in the near term, but we know how the Arctic like to surprise us!
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 09:15:24 AM
Yeah the 00z Euro came in pretty awful still.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 09:33:56 AM
Here are pertinent questions:

1.  How well do the numerical models adjust for albedo changes with melting snow and the effect it will have on low level temps when melt ponds form?

2.  Has the fog field over the Kara/Laptev/parts of the ESS the last 4-5 days accelerated the melt or helped prevent melt?  There is no sign of ice fog.  Just regular fog.

3.  There is an abundance of snow over the Beaufort/Western CAB will this become a positive feedback as the HP brings the 500W/M2 solar insolation in the region in a few days which is expected to last for 7-10 days for now.  Will that extra snow protect the ice or help for massive melt ponds/tranfer more heat to the ice via the extra fresh water in the snow?

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 09:41:50 AM
This will be a huge resource for this upcoming dipole.  It looks like some big time warmth will come over Barrow at least in the 2000M layer.



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Famaru.gina.alaska.edu%2Fdata%2Fgraph%2Fmbs_barrow%2FBRW_MBS.jpg%3Fgraph%3DSeason-to-date&hash=53a788cba2e479b16bf92dbf051368e0)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 29, 2014, 11:12:30 AM
...
@Tnivoli - I occasionally lapse into euphemism when worried about that which lurks beneath the ESS seabed. Hence "mischief".

And I think there's at a guess, about a 50/50 split within the Arctic Ocean between ice covered/open water at the minimum. Some of that open water is hundreds of kilometres away from the nearest ice.

Take for example the Kara Sea. By August that may all be open water, an at an albedo of 0.05, down from 0.9. But it's only the butterfly effect that I see causing that extra energy to affect the remnant ice in the Canadian Archipelago. At a rough guess, the distance is something like the distance from London to the Mediterranean.
It's "Tnioli", please.

To clarify, my previous post was not about "at the minimum", i.e. not about August/September times. It was about now and next few weeks, you see. Agree, at the minimum, much (nowadays - most, i think) of Arctic ocean - is open water. However, it's of little relevance to things i was talking about, because insolation during August and especially September - is much lower than in late May and June - and, naturally, very little time is left for that insolation to "work" (few weeks tops, instead of few months in case of May/June).

Much of the time during August and September, the Sun is above the horizon - but at a very low angle. This increases the distance which sun rays got to travel through the athmosphere, before they reach the surface; the distance is increased rather dramatically for each single ° below ~10° above the horizon. This in turn means that much higher percentage of sun rays get absorbed by gases within the athmosphere, - and do not reach (directly) the surface at all. This, by the way, amplifies the role of GHGs during August and September in Arctic, - substantially, i think; substantial fraction of photons absorbed by the athmosphere produce secondary IR radiation - which is subject to be "trapped" by GHGs. This is possibly one more mechanism through which local high concentrations of methane will probably do an "unexpected boost" at some point in observable future - one more problem for most models (and for mankind, eh).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 29, 2014, 11:34:58 AM
...
In fact, June and July are the only months that show a significant increase in the melt rate overall, with August showing a slight increase and April and May near identical (very slight reductions in melt rate).

Average 7 Day Loss
Month:  First7 | Last7
April:    226.3k | 215.2k
May:    352.3k | 346.3k
June:   340.5k | 500k
July:    577.2k | 705.3k
Aug:    436.6k | 489.6k

This sort of backs up the idea that we shouldn't see anything dramatic or telling before June
Excellent graphs up there, sir. Always good to see things quantatively, and your data is perfect for that.

Qualitatively, though, i've noticed this "big change for June July" years ago, it's quite obvious from even the most simple graphs, like this one - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html) (it's interactive; deselecting all but 1979...1985 and last 7 years - gives an "overall picture" for years you talk about).

This "overall picture", among other things, clearly demonstrates that one other thing which changed since 1979...1985 - is the maximum winter extent, which dropped (average, eyeballing) for some ~1.1 million square kilometers. And i imagine, this loss is mainly about areas which are at the southern edges of Arctic. This was the ice which Arctic was losing in April and May in 1979...1985 - nowadays, Arctic does not "lose" it anymore, because it's not there in the 1st place. That's how spring months may even be slightly less average daily loss during spring numerically. Qualitatively, though, it's a different kind of loss - nowadays, it's about losses of ice which is located significantly further to the north (average, for any given date). And given insolation dependancy from longitude and increasing insolation during late spring - this qualitative _does_ matter, i think.

As for June and July - your graphs perfectly demonstrate the shift of the "big melt of the season" - the shift to earlier dates. Obviously it's (ultimately) driven by insolation dynamic, which (not counting weather) maxes out ~22nd June every year. So as long as max melt rate happens later than "late June", - we'll see the continuation of the trend (big melts happening earlier), though the closer to late June the melt speed peak will be - the slower it'd continue to "drift" towards June ~22nd each year, in general.

As for seeing "telling" things before June - in terms of sea ice area/extent, yes, we won't see; but in terms of some things which are likely to influence the big June/July melt - we already see some; in fact most posts in here are about such things - snow cover, ice drift and thickness, current and projected athmospheric and temperature anomalies, etc. Let's take me as an example: without such data, i'd have no way to know whether 2014 would be like 2013 or like 2012 in terms of minimum annual sea ice area; but with it, i am now pretty sure it'll be much like 2012, +-0.5M km^2 or so, - despite all the possible variability of weather (of which 2013 was an excellent example).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 11:53:59 AM
Here is the day 10 Euro and GFS ensemble means.

There is no good way to sugar coat this:

So far 2013 is looking like the fluke with 2007-2012 the new normal.

Only time will tell.  But day 10 ensemble means like this are bad news.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfYRQGHx.gif&hash=a19baa85733403f670c164d2695665d0)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F2uRyAmi.gif&hash=627e4a6cca2313cb738c509514398c17)

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 29, 2014, 01:29:58 PM
PS Nice distribution maps, BFTV! Might use that comment for a blog post.

Cheers. I can create some slightly better graphs if you want them. Label the axes, improve the legend and such?

Kind of what I've seen also. My gut says there should be a telltale signal of big melt years quite early on but where is it? As far as I know no one has managed to connect f.e. ENSO or NAO to the amount of melt.

I suspect that volume and melt ponding are the main things to examine before June, that and maybe snow cover.


Excellent graphs up there, sir. Always good to see things quantatively, and your data is perfect for that.

Qualitatively, though, i've noticed this "big change for June July" years ago, it's quite obvious from even the most simple graphs, like this one - http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html) (it's interactive; deselecting all but 1979...1985 and last 7 years - gives an "overall picture" for years you talk about).

This "overall picture", among other things, clearly demonstrates that one other thing which changed since 1979...1985 - is the maximum winter extent, which dropped (average, eyeballing) for some ~1.1 million square kilometers. And i imagine, this loss is mainly about areas which are at the southern edges of Arctic. This was the ice which Arctic was losing in April and May in 1979...1985 - nowadays, Arctic does not "lose" it anymore, because it's not there in the 1st place. That's how spring months may even be slightly less average daily loss during spring numerically. Qualitatively, though, it's a different kind of loss - nowadays, it's about losses of ice which is located significantly further to the north (average, for any given date). And given insolation dependancy from longitude and increasing insolation during late spring - this qualitative _does_ matter, i think.

As for June and July - your graphs perfectly demonstrate the shift of the "big melt of the season" - the shift to earlier dates. Obviously it's (ultimately) driven by insolation dynamic, which (not counting weather) maxes out ~22nd June every year. So as long as max melt rate happens later than "late June", - we'll see the continuation of the trend (big melts happening earlier), though the closer to late June the melt speed peak will be - the slower it'd continue to "drift" towards June ~22nd each year, in general.

As for seeing "telling" things before June - in terms of sea ice area/extent, yes, we won't see; but in terms of some things which are likely to influence the big June/July melt - we already see some; in fact most posts in here are about such things - snow cover, ice drift and thickness, current and projected athmospheric and temperature anomalies, etc. Let's take me as an example: without such data, i'd have no way to know whether 2014 would be like 2013 or like 2012 in terms of minimum annual sea ice area; but with it, i am now pretty sure it'll be much like 2012, +-0.5M km^2 or so, - despite all the possible variability of weather (of which 2013 was an excellent example).

I agree with much of what you say. One of the first things I looked at was the temperature trends for each the Apr-Aug months since 1979 at 850hPa for north of 70N, and got the following.

Apr   0.65C/decade
May   0.44C/decade
Jun   0.43C/decade
July  0.25C/decade
Aug  0.40C/decade

That's supports that the change in ice dynamics/thickness/age is key to understanding the change in melt rate distribution seen earlier, rather than looking mainly at the weather patterns or temperature trends (while of coarse acknowledging the role of warming in the long term decline!).

I wouldn't be a confident as yourself about reaching so close to the 2012 minimum, though it is certainly well within reach this year.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 29, 2014, 04:21:46 PM
Well, for me, it's like 2+2=4 in some sense - i mean, not as easy, but adding up just as nice as 2+2=4. The 1st "2" being longer term dynamics, such as famous exponential PIOMASS graphs for minimum volume, similar graphs for minimum extent, Maslowski's works modelling Arctic ice (those military guys prefer to get the real picture, you know), etc. The 2nd "2" - all the recent events with snow cover, open water, ice thickness etc, quite many of which are nicely mentioned in this very topic. Plus that el-nino probability on top of it, also mentioned in this topic. So i generally expect this and next years to contribute to continuation of the longer-term trend (last decade+ - accelerating decrease of ASI), and right now i see no major reasons why this year could repeat 2013's abnormal behaviour. Things which driven the ice to follow those fancy lines - are still in place, and stronger than ever:

(https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2014/05/piomas-minimum-arctic-ice-volume.png)

There is just one remotely possible thing which might perhaps put 2014 and next years to deviate massively from those fancy color lines: some geo-engineering project up there, aimed to freeze the place back up. I've heard a talk of some serious scientists discussing it, and mentioning that "we have to start in 2013, otherwise there will be no point in trying". We've seen what we've seen in 2013. If 2014 will be higher minimum extent that 2013, then i'd rather suspect anthropogenic influence of this sort rather than any natural forces - because, again, GHGs are there, clear volume loss (which represents energy balance in the system) is also there during last decade+, and such huge things can't turn around in just 1-2 years "just like that" - on their own.

So yeah, we'll see. Few more months, and things will be quite clear, i bet.

P.S. According to the picture in this post, 2013's increase of minimum volume - was largest on record among 1-year increases which happened after 3+ years of lower volume (so it'd be indeed an increase - more than a recovery from unusually-low minimum SI volume, like the big one happened after unusually-low volume year near the end of 1990s). LArgest on record - and at a time one would least expect it, too. That's why i say without a doubt it was abnormal - and that's why i even mention remote possibility of this increase being (at least partially) intentionally anthropogenic in nature.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: rwmsrobertw on May 29, 2014, 05:11:16 PM
Hi, all.

Despite following global warming for several years now and completing a couple of online classes on global warming, I continue to have a very poor understanding of these weather forecast maps (such as the ones posted by frivolousz21 most recently above) and their significance to Arctic ice melt. For example, in the maps above I see colors that appear to be centered on 500 HPa, and a contour map showing isobars in the 1000 HPa range (at the surface, I would guess). I do not see any references to temperature despite the constant discussion of this aspect from those of you who understand these maps. Also, from the discussions, From discussions, I know that dipoles (which appear to be a pair of high pressure zones relatively close to one another) are bad for ice, but I'm not sure (high winds along the isobars between the two highs?).

Anyway, I know there is a great deal I don't know about this topic, and I would like to get up to speed to follow these conversations - so that I can chuckle along with the group when somebody posts a map with just the comment "MOTHER OF GOD" at the very least. (OK, really, I just want to understand and appreciate the significance of the forecasts.)  Is there a good post here that gives the basics of understanding these forecast maps (and weather maps in general)? Is there a tutorial website on this topic that anyone can recommend.

Thanks in advance for anything anyone can suggest.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: RunningChristo on May 29, 2014, 05:42:01 PM
Well said Robert! I know you speak up for many of us noneducated lurkers! I do like the enthusiasm of folks as Friv & Chris Biscan (the same man in disguise?!), but I do learn a lot more from guys like Werther etc. So don't dive into the world of abbrevations and coded Messages if there is a chance for making it plain and simple ;). Hemingway wrote in a short & simple way, but I dare say it wasn't an easy task... :P.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 29, 2014, 06:01:53 PM
Personally, I find the use of text size, color and caps lock distracting and somewhat like shouting in a discussion.
+1
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 06:04:30 PM
I will try and be more descriptive in my posts analyzing the pattern and numerical model forecasts.  The pattern of ice destruction in the arctic is called the Arctic Dipole Anomaly.

Here is a snippet from the NSIDC.  For anyone interested in learning more about this weather pattern read the NSIDC June-August summaries going back to 2007.


Quote
The Arctic dipole anomaly

The record low ice extent of September 2007 was influenced by a persistent atmospheric pressure pattern called the summer Arctic dipole anomaly (DA). The DA features unusually high pressure centered over the northern Beaufort Sea and unusually low pressure centered over the Kara Sea, along the Eurasian coast. In accord with Buys Ballot’s Law, this pattern causes winds to blow from the south along the Siberian coast, helping to push ice away from the coast and favoring strong melt. The DA pattern also promotes northerly winds in the Fram Strait region, helping to flush ice out of the Arctic Ocean into the North Atlantic. The DA pattern may also favor the import of warm ocean waters from the North Pacific that hastens ice melt.

June 2010 saw the return of the DA, but with the pressure centers shifted slightly compared to summer 2007. As a result, winds along the Siberian coastal sector are blowing more from the east rather than from the south. Whether or not the DA pattern persists through the rest of summer will bear strongly on whether a new record low in ice



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FRGtoSE6.png%3F1&hash=28a7099eaa9fe2b6401217dd9effacff)


The current numerical guidance is showing the formation of this pattern attm.

This is the 00z Euro you can compare the June 2010 mean and see a very similar pattern emerging on the models. 

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F8haMPOh.gif&hash=cf55a9d320466ff8e22f11d132a14942)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 29, 2014, 06:26:12 PM
looks like an overall bad pattern starting around day 5 and lasting through the end of the run (day 15). the ecmwf ensemble mean is similar

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 06:27:35 PM
Early returns on the GFS show extensive ridging over the NA side of the arctic at the end of the short range into the medium range days 5-7.  I can't see the poleward images yet. 

But there is a meridional flow over the NATL keeping cut off lows over parts of Eastern Canada and NW Europe while HP breaks out over GIS, NW ATL, CAB, CA, and of course the Beaufort region.

compared to all of the recent GFS runs this one takes it way up a few notches.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 29, 2014, 06:30:24 PM
Hi rwmsrobertw (and everyone else),

Hey I have just been following this forum and Neven blog since 2013 and also appreciate when I find a revealing explanation for a noobie like me, but you got to see that there are people that have been contributing here or in the blog for four years (or more?) and developed a jargon of their own. I accept that.

A few things (I think) people look at are high pressure systems (clear skies) and low pressure system (clouds, snow, but if strong it may break-up ice and cause upwelling of warmer ocean water). Also winds (pay attention to isobars and wind direction). Winds from the south means rising temperatures. A dipole is the association of one high pressure system and one low pressure system. Between them, a jet-like current forms that pulls air from one side of the dipole to the other. If this air comes form the south, then it is bad for the ice. When the high is over America-side and the low is over Eurasia-side, it is a "straight" dipole that brings heat from the Pacific. An inverted dipole (low in Eurasia, high in America), brings heat from the Atlantic. The colours I think represent the altitude anomaly of the 500 hpa isosurface. If low (green) it means a cold mass of air at high altitudes, and tendency of instability, low pressure, bad weather, cold temps. If high (red) means the opposite (not sure).

Since I am less than an aficionado, probably I said many wrong things. There is also a thread in this forum for "stupid questions" where we should address our pressing doubts.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: rwmsrobertw on May 29, 2014, 06:52:49 PM
Thank you, everyone ! I'm in no way asking anyone to change the way they discuss these issues, I'm just trying to ramp up my own understanding (and suspect that there are others that lurk here that would like to do the same).

I've noticed one effort the regular posters have made is the posting of the glossary at http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,153.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,153.0.html) . That helps a lot with the jargon, I just need to learn a little more about the meanings of the weather phenomena to understand the significance of the postings.

Thank you again for the more detailed explanations some of you are posting.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: TerryM on May 29, 2014, 07:08:00 PM
F.Tnioli

This in turn means that much higher percentage of sun rays get absorbed by gases within the athmosphere, - and do not reach (directly) the surface at all. This, by the way, amplifies the role of GHGs during August and September in Arctic, - substantially, i think; substantial fraction of photons absorbed by the athmosphere produce secondary IR radiation - which is subject to be "trapped" by GHGs. This is possibly one more mechanism through which local high concentrations of methane will probably do an "unexpected boost" at some point in observable future - one more problem for most models (and for mankind, eh).


Does this then apply as well to the April May periods when the sun is also low? Should we be looking for higher atmospheric temperatures under methane clouds during these months?


Terry
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: iceman on May 29, 2014, 08:19:30 PM
... the shift of the "big melt of the season" - the shift to earlier dates. Obviously it's (ultimately) driven by insolation dynamic, which (not counting weather) maxes out ~22nd June every year.
... the closer to late June the melt speed peak will be - the slower it'd continue to "drift" towards June ~22nd each year, in general.

The peak energy absorption of the Arctic system comes later than the "big melt." (Earlier, proportionately more of the heat input goes toward melting ice; later, toward warming water.)  But when? and how does the timing change?
    If the time distribution of the CICE simulation (see upthread) is accurate, the peak influence from melt ponding is approaching early July.  Rosel & Kaleschke figure 3b (also upthread) indicates earlier, as does inference from CAPIE. 
    It's extremely complicated to calculate the energy absorption effect of open water area, taking into account latitude, angle of incidence of solar rays, re-radiation, etc.  My guess is a broad peak in late July, not accounting for weather conditions.
    The timing of peak in net energy will also drift earlier, following the interannual trends in melt pond area and sea ice area/extent, among other factors.  It won't have the same asymptote date as the "big melt."  And the two will play out differently: peak melt timing probably bears more on that year's minimum, and peak energy absorption on the long-term trend, including self-acceleration if/when that comes into play.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: wili on May 29, 2014, 09:02:55 PM
Quote
Personally, I find the use of text size, color and caps lock distracting and somewhat like shouting in a discussion.

++10000000

 :P

Really, I usually just use a slightly larger font for titles of msm articles to mimic the layout of the original. If such things are generally annoying to the vast number of posters, though, we should determine that by having a poll, and then see if Neven would disable those abilities.

Generally, I'm greatly enjoying the discussion. I second Iceman's point about peak energy absorption coming later in the season than the solstice.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 29, 2014, 09:04:51 PM
An example of why any model output beyond 7 days should not be taken too seriously

The ECM 00z run from this morning for 10 days out. Note the low pressure along much of the Eurasian coastline with much of the area below 1010hPa, with a generally higher pressure along the North American side, between 1015 and 1020hPa.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FqP8ubJJ.png&hash=10adc4394228c40ffd6ae5faebb12aa2)

Now the 12z ECM just released for 10 days out. Note how the pattern has almost flipped over the Arctic, with low pressure now along the North American side and high pressure across the Eurasian sector.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpDFPlGX.png&hash=58e0ebb1d8a135843e073e438c873226)

Quite a difference, eh?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 09:31:24 PM
The Euro goes off the rails around day 6-7.  Maybe it's onto something.  But with that big cut off vortex West of England there should be a major -NAO developing. 

The Euro also doesn't really go all reverse dipole either.  The Kara low is shunted inland. 

This is a major contrast to the GFS which stayed the course. 

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 29, 2014, 10:56:29 PM
I can’t wait to obtain an initial idea of present ice quality compared to last year.
So, even when a large part (certainly in this particular region) is covered with a thin, but persistent, layer of clouds, I’ll give it a try.
This is a 100x100 km swath on the rim of Chukchi and East Sib Sea, just South of the Arctic Basin, day 168 last year:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FDetailr05c03day1682013small_zps7ffa63c7.jpg&hash=e845b9d9f56b65b5194ae459da24bae8)

It features a highly fractured, irregular pattern of floes, covered with blueish melt ponds.
This is visible on MODIS r05c03 today, day 149:
 
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FArctic%2520Ice%25202014%2FDetailr05c03day149small_zps66310e07.jpg&hash=750339d0c80bbc5a1bb9a68d0c8fb139)

This suggests a just as fractured, but even larger spaced spread of floes than above. As it is 19 days early, there’s a good chance that the announced clear weather over these parts will produce at least the same melt ponding soon.
If so, by day 168 it could be well possible that a large part of this 10K km2  will be open water. Wind and temperature teaming up?

For the topo enthusiastics: plm. 700 km NW from Barrow, 450 km NNE from Wrangell, 1600 km S. from the Pole.
BTW instead of shouting, I seem to like to fill the posts with LOTS of pics...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season OT
Post by: jdallen on May 29, 2014, 11:12:19 PM
BTW instead of shouting, I seem to like to fill the posts with LOTS of pics...

It just makes what you say scarier, werther ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: werther on May 29, 2014, 11:17:03 PM
Scary but entertaining, I hope...

BTW underlining the volatility of synoptic scale meteorology and model calculations, ECMWF doesn’t show the ‘death ridge’ today for 5 June:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi1036.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fa446%2Fhanver1%2FECMWF29052014500MbGeo850Mbtemp0506rtsmall_zps38f8f32a.jpg&hash=fcdcf63c0c48266fdc63ac950a838890)

Obviously, the sequence of ridges and troughs works out slower on the Pacific side than forecast. And the vortex-trough in the mid-higher troposphere situated over Taymir extends into North Greenland. That cuts a potential steering for a classical ‘dipole’. What remains is strong high winds from the South over the Chukchi and East Sib Seas.

That ridge in red over the Bering Sea could still pick up strength when it gradually shifts to the East. In a few days, FI about 8 or 10 June, it could start transferring a lot of mid-tropospheric warmth and humidity out of the Gulf of Alaska.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 29, 2014, 11:17:40 PM
looks like an overall bad pattern starting around day 5 and lasting through the end of the run (day 15). the ecmwf ensemble mean is similar

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html (http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html)
the euro ens mean continues the same idea. the op run beyond day 5 shouldn't really be used
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 29, 2014, 11:23:01 PM
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fdownload.ecmwf.org%2Fdata%2Fweb249%2Fget_legacy_plot-web249-20140529212149-19564-1120.gif&hash=42973db9df45e9c534bd6226545a340f)

ens mean on the left. notice how much weaker it is with the vortex near greenland
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: RunningChristo on May 29, 2014, 11:44:25 PM
The cracking and destruction of ice North west & east of Greenland the last 10 days is just mindboggling:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2014139.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2014139.terra)
compared to today:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2014149.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c03.2014149.terra)
Just 10 days :o. Can't wait for the NeXT 10...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 29, 2014, 11:50:14 PM
I should point out that from what I understand most of the posters here do not live in the United States. 

I have no idea if it's different in other cultures.  But bolding, colorizing, and enlarging text is not considered shouting unless it's written in all caps and even then unless the entire post/article is in all caps it's mostly considered emphasizing and categorizing. 



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on May 30, 2014, 01:10:43 AM
It is not shouting but for me it becomes a bit less readable and adds some distress. But its a matter of taste I guess like those who like comic sans and those who hate it
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on May 30, 2014, 01:23:47 AM
Really, I usually just use a slightly larger font for titles of msm articles to mimic the layout of the original. If such things are generally annoying to the vast number of posters, though, we should determine that by having a poll, and then see if Neven would disable those abilities.

Titles, topic sentences, a word here and there are reasonable, and I don't think we should ask Neven to remove them.  When my entire visible screen is 14/18 pt red underlined text (http://puu.sh/96S2g/9363840d5e.png), then that's perhaps too much excitement.

Once more; this is not a personal attack friv21, I really appreciate the content of your posts. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: JayW on May 30, 2014, 01:59:16 AM
@JayW - CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!! YOU ARE THE 10,000th POSTER ON THE ARCTIC SEA ICE SECTION OF THIS FORUM!!!!!!! PLEASE CONTACT NEVEN TO CLAIM YOUR PRIZE OF SOD ALL!!!!! Congratulations also to Neven, DungeonMaster, and all involved.

Well done, JayW. Here's your prize:  :-*

Quote
@friv21. I find your explanation of "Mother of God" very useful. But for the meteorologically challenged, like me, just posting a weather map, and "Mother of God" - well you mght as well post it in Sumerian cuneiform; and it would mean as much to me.


Ignorance is bliss.  ;) ;D

@ idunno,  I appreciate the honor, kind of funny that a guy with about 11 posts of meager substance gets recognized.

@Neven, well now, didn't you make me feel like the prettiest girl in the room  :)

Now I feel obliged to contribute.  As an avid winter storm tracker (I love my snowstorms) I'm relatively familiar with the weather charts/maps that many post.  But, for people who want a different and simplified approach, you can use coolwx.  You can click any point on the map and get an 8 day GFS forecast of temperatures, pressures, winds, precipitation, and cloud cover.
Link.  http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getglobe.cgi?lat=map.globe (http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getglobe.cgi?lat=map.globe)
I included the plots for the north pole.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 30, 2014, 02:21:59 AM
The 18z GFS is bringing it something fierce.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhavn1801.gif&hash=ac4e1992b643c28b21f93cc92ffd17d6)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Csnavywx on May 30, 2014, 04:12:00 AM
ECMWF, CMC, and GFS ensembles all develop a classic 2007-2012 dipole look from day 5 onwards, with a large, deep layer ridge covering the Beaufort and beyond. We will have to see if this holds over the next day or two. The meat of the event, if it's real, should be getting into the Euro's wheel house soon.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 30, 2014, 04:53:58 AM
ECMWF, CMC, and GFS ensembles all develop a classic 2007-2012 dipole look from day 5 onwards, with a large, deep layer ridge covering the Beaufort and beyond. We will have to see if this holds over the next day or two. The meat of the event, if it's real, should be getting into the Euro's wheel house soon.


The vortex positions are honestly worrisome.

The cut off West of England.

Around the Kara region and over the Hudson.

That is some serious constipation around the booming ridges. 

If this locks in, it could lock in for while.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: F.Tnioli on May 30, 2014, 08:25:28 AM
Does this then apply as well to the April May periods when the sun is also low? Should we be looking for higher atmospheric temperatures under methane clouds during these months?

Terry
It does apply too, but not "as well". Simple math, really: the peak insolation (and highest angle for much of the time) - is 22nd June. Everything within +-50 days from it - is also quite much insolation, which starts to decrease quickly as we go further than 50 days (to either side - before or after). 22nd June + 50 days = ~11th August; 22nd June - 50 days = ~2nd May. Therefore, April is less insolation that August, but in turn, August is less insolation than May. September is MUCH lower than either May or April. You can see what i mean on this graph:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-k_S7N0VlMRg%2FUH4RNvJ3cjI%2FAAAAAAAAFjk%2FlqjQhGqLWOk%2Fs1600%2Finsolation_latitude.gif&hash=7369ece581a61d56c72086d47ed68f7a)

Significance of GHGs is always there if we talk about more-or-less global levels (like ~400 ppm CO2), but i wasn't talking about that. I said: "local high concentrations of GHGs". This is mainly about methane "clouds". During the spring, there are few if any of those - nearly all methane which could leak "through" the ice during winter - already did it by the spring, and had some time to mix and move away from the source; cold temperatures during winter and early spring - stall further methane emissions significantly. That's why despite somewhat similar insolation during spring, this particular feedback (local high methane concentrations) - is not much significant. What makes it (potentially hugely) significant during late summer/autumn - is presense of high temperatures (summer) for long enough time (few months) - this leads to an increase of number and scale of sources of methane emissions in Arctic, by both applying melting temperatures to the sea floor (including large direct solar radiation penetrating through shallow water on continental shelves and hitting the sea floor directly), and also by the big reduction of sea ice area (thus allowing gaseous methane which gets out of sea floor to get directly into the athmosphere in a short time - instead of being trapped under the ice for a substantial time, during which most of methane usually gets decomposed into water and CO2, the latter having dozens times less short-term local GHG effect).

Bottom line: for several mutually reinforcing reasons, extra local greenhouse effect, created by local sources of GHG gases in Arctic - is many times more significant during late summer (August) and autumn (September, October, November) than in the spring (April and May).
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Errorr on May 30, 2014, 09:58:00 AM
It looks like all the models are lining up and predicting a persistent high over the Beaufort. If you turn your eyes further south you may see the culprit IMHO. While I'm just a dilletante with this stuff the strong ridging in the eastern N. Pacific looks like it is about to go on walkabout and head up towards Alaska.

From the CPC teleconnections page you have a low mode of variability called the east/north pacific pattern. This is characterized by anamolous heights toward Alaska and a global drop in the strength of the polar vortex as the east Asian jet drops in strength. The temperature implications are the following:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov%2Fdata%2Fteledoc%2Fep_tmap.gif&hash=86a7d0d24f243ecc9210bab70a5e0165)

Although it all may just be the Pacific N. America pattern ad well. The GFS and ensambles have the PNA index as a strong negative for the next 2 weeks. The PNA has been positive or neutral for quite a while.

First week of June will be vital to determining how the ice this year disappears.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Peter Ellis on May 30, 2014, 09:16:55 PM
Rest assured that I too appreciate Friv's enthusiasm.  However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal. We do have to keep our discussion of the melt season anchored in reality, or we simply become the polar (ha!) opposite of W*tts*pw*thth*t or (heaven forfend) St*v*n G*dd*rd's site.  Lest we forget, last year's prediction from this blog was the lowest and hence wrongest of all the entries.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 30, 2014, 09:38:21 PM
Rest assured that I too appreciate Friv's enthusiasm.  However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal. We do have to keep our discussion of the melt season anchored in reality, or we simply become the polar (ha!) opposite of W*tts*pw*thth*t or (heaven forfend) St*v*n G*dd*rd's site.  Lest we forget, last year's prediction from this blog was the lowest and hence wrongest of all the entries.

I am agreed with you entirely on this. Considering the level of knowledge present here it was disheartening last year to see such a massive undershoot on the predictions vs the reality.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 30, 2014, 10:27:49 PM
Rest assured that I too appreciate Friv's enthusiasm.  However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal. We do have to keep our discussion of the melt season anchored in reality, or we simply become the polar (ha!) opposite of W*tts*pw*thth*t or (heaven forfend) St*v*n G*dd*rd's site.  Lest we forget, last year's prediction from this blog was the lowest and hence wrongest of all the entries.
what data says the current melt rate is below normal? looks pretty steep to me

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html (http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 30, 2014, 10:31:35 PM
However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal.

I concur both regarding Friv and the need to stay real.

I'm not sure I'm in agreement with these statements tho, nor think in and of themselves are key to understanding eventual melt.

Temperatures while averaging slightly below average, have been oscillating wildly, both within regions and across regions.  Albedo and heat exchange are what we really need to track, but I have no good suggestions yet as how to measure it finely enough for it to be useful...
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: deep octopus on May 30, 2014, 10:36:28 PM
Extent losses to date are pretty consistent with the post-2006 bunch, so I also cannot agree that melt rates are below normal. It is within the range of recent years for this time of May. Not remarkable, but still.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Chuck Yokota on May 30, 2014, 10:37:45 PM

I am agreed with you entirely on this. Considering the level of knowledge present here it was disheartening last year to see such a massive undershoot on the predictions vs the reality.

I suspect that some of the undershoot was due to noobs like myself throwing in an uninformed guess just for a lark, without realizing that it might reflect poorly on the site.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 30, 2014, 10:53:57 PM
Extent losses to date are pretty consistent with the post-2006 bunch, so I also cannot agree that melt rates are below normal. It is within the range of recent years for this time of May. Not remarkable, but still.

Jim Pettit informs (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,743.msg27179.html#msg27179) us every day of the statistics:

Quote
IJIS SIE
Fourth lowest value for the date.
Fourth lowest May to-date average.

CT SIA
Seventh lowest value for the date.
Fifth lowest May to-date average.

My guess is that the rate of loss will increase in the next 7-10 days, especially SIA. ClimateReananalyzer also has things heating up quite a bit in about 5 days. But perhaps not.

BTW, I found out what was causing the US to lose all its heat and Africa to go ablaze in the last 3-4 forecast maps on CR: the shift from day to night. I'm just so used to 24-hr jumps in forecast, instead of 3-hr. And I'm stupid.  :)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 30, 2014, 10:57:45 PM
Rest assured that I too appreciate Friv's enthusiasm.  However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal. We do have to keep our discussion of the melt season anchored in reality, or we simply become the polar (ha!) opposite of W*tts*pw*thth*t or (heaven forfend) St*v*n G*dd*rd's site.  Lest we forget, last year's prediction from this blog was the lowest and hence wrongest of all the entries.

I am agreed with you entirely on this. Considering the level of knowledge present here it was disheartening last year to see such a massive undershoot on the predictions vs the reality.
i don't think anyone actually predicted last year's minimum confidently. the sea ice forum members simply went with the linear trend (the logical thing to do) and the WUWT crowd went higher like they always do and got a lucky break
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 30, 2014, 11:02:12 PM
i don't think anyone actually predicted last year's minimum confidently. the sea ice forum members simply went with the linear trend (the logical thing to do) and the WUWT crowd went higher like they always do and got a lucky break

The Wattsians also predicted too low, which goes to show how much of an outlier 2013 was. But maybe they'll vote higher this year. Bastardi has been predicting further recovery.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: deep octopus on May 30, 2014, 11:13:01 PM

My guess is that the rate of loss will increase in the next 7-10 days, especially SIA. ClimateReananalyzer also has things heating up quite a bit in about 5 days. But perhaps not.

BTW, I found out what was causing the US to lose all its heat and Africa to go ablaze in the last 3-4 forecast maps on CR: the shift from day to night. I'm just so used to 24-hr jumps in forecast, instead of 3-hr. And I'm stupid.  :)

My tendency is to use CCI Reanalyzer's forecasts when comparing to the same 24-hour frequencies (so hour 0, 24, 48, etc.) But it is quirky in that it does factor in diurnal anomalies, so at the same time you'll be seeing 3 p.m. late spring temperatures in the eastern US as rather warm, Africa and Europe are showing the cooler night temperatures. I have to toggle back and forth between their anomaly forecasts and the nominal temperature forecasts to get a full understanding of what's happening. It's more laborious and takes getting used to, but I find it useful at least for short-term forecasts. Now with the Arctic, I would think the hourly factors would be less significant as we move towards the solstice, since the temperature range is based more on the time of year than time of day.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 30, 2014, 11:15:55 PM
Rest assured that I too appreciate Friv's enthusiasm.  However the fact remains that the temperature above 80N and the overall Arctic melt rate are both currently below normal. We do have to keep our discussion of the melt season anchored in reality, or we simply become the polar (ha!) opposite of W*tts*pw*thth*t or (heaven forfend) St*v*n G*dd*rd's site.  Lest we forget, last year's prediction from this blog was the lowest and hence wrongest of all the entries.

I came on here all summer telling the blog and forum of the massive bust way back in June.  I begged Neven and the blog to not continue down that path.  This is not to rip neven or the blog members.  But to show that I also was concerned about Nevens blog losing credibility.

Jaxa is 4th lowest on record and your talking about 80N?  How can Jaxa be 4th lowest on record with above normal ice all over the Hudson and Baffin regions and the arctic not be in really bad shape?

What about CT?

I re-posted 10 days worth of my posts defending myself against your inquiry and showed that I don't come on here everyday and claim the end is near.

Speculating on numerical models in 10 day frames or less is nothing like predicting the ice is going to completely melt out or smash records. 

My official prediction for 2014 on americanwx is 3.15 CT Area and 4.5 mil on Jaxa. 

Last year from June on my prediction was 4.2 to 4.5 mil km2 on Jaxa.  It took the best weather since 1996 to prevent that. 

I look forward to your posts on the blog and forum, I also wish you well.  I am not going to address this again tho.

Model speculation is what it is.  It's always going to be highly subject to change.

I will leave you with this tho:

The end is near:  ;D ;D ;D

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FFTc9bAC.gif&hash=793ee000ac65f7c565b098913f839ab6)

seriously that is a bad pattern.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: forkyfork on May 30, 2014, 11:17:43 PM
the 12z euro ens mean is ugly. LP south of the kara sea through the entire run and above normal heights over the arctic basin
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on May 30, 2014, 11:29:31 PM
Quote
I begged Neven and the blog to not continue down that path.

I never went down no path, and if I did, I was always clear about it, before, during and after. It took me too long to figure out what was going on, because I thought that weather couldn't play such an important role any longer (because I saw clear signs of that in 2011 and especially 2012). I expected that one period of weather conducive to melting would bring 2013 close to 2007/2011. This wasn't so. I learned. I wrote (and still write) about what I learned.

It don't get more credible than that.  :P ;D

I can't and don't want to control polls, but I will put them up. I just have to make sure to put in enough bins to choose from this year. I had too little lower bins in 2012, and not enough higher bins in 2013. All in all the average is fantastic. Just like Antarctic sea ice gains compensating for Arctic sea ice loss.  ;)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 30, 2014, 11:32:00 PM
the 12z euro ens mean is ugly. LP south of the kara sea through the entire run and above normal heights over the arctic basin

By day 5-7 there is almost no green on this height chart below.  I know it's just a color delineation but it's a good rough guide without anomaly charts of whats what since it's hard for me at least to discern the chart otherwise with the color scheme.

lol, wait I Just doubled checked that link you sent me and put in hour 120 and 144 and yeah height anomalies are big over the NA side.

It may not show up on the extent charts immediately but melt ponding and melting will be in full swing by early next week over a large part of the Pacific side. 



(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FReemnh1681.gif&hash=77656ea99aee435630cacc76f4c07399)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 30, 2014, 11:40:11 PM
Quote
I begged Neven and the blog to not continue down that path.

I never went down no path, and if I did, I was always clear about it, before, during and after. It took me too long to figure out what was going on, because I thought that weather couldn't play such an important role any longer (because I saw clear signs of that in 2011 and especially 2012). I expected that one period of weather conducive to melting would bring 2013 close to 2007/2011. This wasn't so. I learned. I wrote (and still write) about what I learned.

It don't get more credible than that.  :P ;D

I can't and don't want to control polls, but I will put them up. I just have to make sure to put in enough bins to choose from this year. I had too little lower bins in 2012, and not enough higher bins in 2013. All in all the average is fantastic. Just like Antarctic sea ice gains compensating for Arctic sea ice loss.  ;)


Totally appreciate this post. 


The weather last summer taught me that the ice is beyond repair for sure.  It was 2nd to only 1996 and the ice still ended up worse then 2009.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 31, 2014, 02:18:04 AM

Mother of God.


 8)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FfU1FThZ.gif&hash=e44c9e4463145edcb0fa314c48e1cb32)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 31, 2014, 06:15:18 AM

Mother of God.


 8)


Rather worse forecast than the last one of this series (Mothers of God).

Not a trend I care for.  This week may be the most interesting in a while.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on May 31, 2014, 06:37:28 AM
In that vein, the Kara is already pretty thoroughly thrashed:

5 days ago:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2014145.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2014145.terra)

Today:
http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2014150.terra (http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c05.2014150.terra)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 31, 2014, 06:50:51 AM
The fun part of of melting Arctic Ice is that everything seems to effect it. Ocean currents and how warm and strong they are, how hot it will be, how sunny it will be, how stormy, which direction are the winds pushing it, how much will get flushed out the Fram, is the ice a solid ice cube or a slush puppy and exactly what part of the spectrum is it, ......
In the past 7 years we have witnessed to one degree or another all these things (and probably a few I missed)
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F98xMi%2F79561e9deb.jpg&hash=84148f97080166acb5a50769fa3dd196)(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F98xZp%2F2dcfec8170.jpg&hash=13adbcb357791c6e45174418a93a62a5)(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpuu.sh%2F98ysk%2F6507d77eb0.jpg&hash=782676dcf39a18e6a9a4b8574838308b)
Shows that currents flowing into that Arctic could be warmer then normal based on current SSTA's, as for the weather no one can predict that. So we are back to falling back to trends and based on that since 2013 was so great for holding onto ice and the last 10 years was a flat line as far as world temps are concerned, if not this year very very soon we are going to pay for all that built up heat (unless you are a firm believer that is a conspiracy). The question then becomes, 1)will it hit all parts more are less the same, 2)concentrate mainly at the poles, or 3)focus mainly at one pole and not the other, 4)at the equator.
If 1 will not be as bad as could be, if 2 we are in trouble, if 3 A very very bad scenario, if 4 very bad also because that willcreate mega storms all over the place.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 31, 2014, 01:15:36 PM
The 06z GFS:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FN0N2Nwu.gif&hash=76d285f99d72750d9553370d32e35a31)

Here is a still image of a week from now.  It's quite amazing.


During peak insolation as well.

That is a massive ridge. Wall to wall Sun.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F7U9jWrX.gif&hash=ff5e461b5b85d1acebc32025db786c57)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sunkensheep on May 31, 2014, 01:42:51 PM

Mother of God. 8)

A super-HPS on Greenland! Think that model might have departed a little from reality.

Seeing all these posts speculating on 5-7day output reminds me of a certain Australian snow forum, where weather-watchers will track the progress of a forecast cold front or cut off low from the moment it 'appears' in the 7 day forecast window. (for those who don't know, the quality and quantity of snow in Australia's mountainous areas in any years' ski season is somewhat of a lottery).

Whether or not the ECMWF scenario turns out, things certainly look to be heating up (pun intended) in the Arctic over the next few days. The thing to remember (or at least I need to remind myself) about the ice is that the effect of weather is integrating (with some time-lag thanks to sea surface heating). A few days of super-bad weather in an 'average' summer will not do the same damage as a whole summer of somewhat-bad weather.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Siffy on May 31, 2014, 02:17:22 PM
I suspect we will have a final ice result some where between the 2012 and 2013 minimas. closer to 2013 then 2012 how ever.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 31, 2014, 02:57:05 PM
GFS 06z run looks really nice with a building HP 1020-1030 covering almost the whole Arctic basin.. :D Will probably mean a lot of sunshine if this forecast materializes and melt ponds... What I've been looking at for the last week is why the ice in ESS have remained at 100% concentration at Bremens ice chart.. If this forecast comes true I think we should see a quick deterioration of this ice concentration in ESS..

If it wouldn't have been for last years cold summer I would have been quite sure that this years ice minimum would have smashed 2012... I still believe we will end up somewhere in the range 3,9-4,5 million km2..
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 31, 2014, 03:02:36 PM
The pattern from day 5 onward looks quite bad on both the GFS and ECM, quite 2007 esque, a strong dipole combined with a -ve AO, sending the cold air south into the Atlantic and flooding the Arctic with warmth from the Pacific and Siberia. While it remains beyond 5 days though, I won't be getting too worried/excited, but it's certainly worth keeping an eye on.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 31, 2014, 03:11:42 PM
A few days of super-bad weather in an 'average' summer will not do the same damage as a whole summer of somewhat-bad weather.
But as we found out in 2012. A few very bad days on a mediocre summer can make for a very day time for ice.
Also if it is right that melt ponds hold a key, melting a a very bad time can make or brake a whole summer no matter what the summer is like.
Then of course as all hurricane watchers can tell you. You can have all the dominoes lined up right and one little hic-up can wreck all projections. On the other hand a little hic-up can turn a little weather into a disaster.
As a side note: The more patterns get looked at, the more patterns start forming a bigger picture.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 31, 2014, 03:39:24 PM
The big thing to watch is how long this bad pattern stays put.  The models are showing multiple cut off SLPs in the classic positions for massive arctic ridging. 

The 06z GFS is the most extreme run so far.  It has the massive ridge just sit over the entire arctic basin thru June 10th at least between 1035-1040HP.

That would bring an incredible widespread albedo drop.  Literally almost the entire ice sheet would have melt ponds on it by June 10th.

It's not a classic dipole anomaly.  But we have thin FYI over the pole.

The other question is will the snow pack over the Beaufort and Western CAB become a positive feedback.

I keep waiting for the models to totally back off from this. 

Every single June-July-Aug from Aug of 2006 to Aug of 2012 had a -NAO until 2013.

Here is the gfs ensemble mean forecast:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F5uiBXln.gif%3F1&hash=7383de6719b97029a8d72bf803987164)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: BornFromTheVoid on May 31, 2014, 03:53:42 PM
The big thing to watch is how long this bad pattern stays put.  The models are showing multiple cut off SLPs in the classic positions for massive arctic ridging. 

The 06z GFS is the most extreme run so far.  It has the massive ridge just sit over the entire arctic basin thru June 10th at least between 1035-1040HP.

That would bring an incredible widespread albedo drop.  Literally almost the entire ice sheet would have melt ponds on it by June 10th.

It's not a classic dipole anomaly.  But we have thin FYI over the pole.

The other question is will the snow pack over the Beaufort and Western CAB become a positive feedback.

I keep waiting for the models to totally back off from this. 

Every single June-July-Aug from Aug of 2006 to Aug of 2012 had a -NAO until 2013.

It certainly is the typical summer pattern of the 2007-2012 period being forecast

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FVW4wWG1.png&hash=dd58d3c62c0e725e0b43682453cd517a)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FpbRClvx.png&hash=6977d2a5d4f3db90a483f3b76c976c83)

2007 was slightly different, the a strong pressure gradient, high pressure closer to Beaufort and a ridge toward the Bering strait.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2F06B4SdP.png&hash=d7576b855c3eb443252587d4eb9b7c37)

A 2007 pattern with the ice the way it is now would likely send us well below 2 million km2 by September.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: LRC1962 on May 31, 2014, 03:56:33 PM
I love this site. Just figured out that not only do they have current and archived weather info, they do future forecasts also up to 5 days (I think that's it) ahead.
See this: http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/06/04/0900Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/azimuthal_equidistant=0.00,90.00,253 (http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/06/04/0900Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/overlay=mean_sea_level_pressure/azimuthal_equidistant=0.00,90.00,253)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 31, 2014, 10:16:18 PM
Latest ECMWF 12z was not too bad.. Btw, Longyearbyen have had temps above freeze point continuously for the last 4-7 days and is forecasted to have temps above 0C the next 10 days.. This should mean bad news and quick melt for the ice in this region next week... Statistic for Svalbard is available here: http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html (http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on May 31, 2014, 11:48:42 PM
Latest ECMWF 12z was not too bad.. Btw, Longyearbyen have had temps above freeze point continuously for the last 4-7 days and is forecasted to have temps above 0C the next 10 days.. This should mean bad news and quick melt for the ice in this region next week... Statistic for Svalbard is available here: http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html (http://www.yr.no/sted/Norge/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistikk.html)

It has done this twice recently with it's ensemble mean saying it's crap until we see an established trend something keeps happening around day 5 then it totally diverges from the rest of the models including it's own ensembles.

I wouldn't be surprised with a taming of the pattern tho.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: idunno on June 01, 2014, 12:48:09 AM
Sorry guys and gals, you are really losing me. Almost the whole of this page, and the previous 3 or 4, seems to be taken up with various squabbles about the prognosis over the following 240 hours for Arctic weather, at ??? HPa,

Does nobody have anything to say about the ACTUAL PRESENT OBSERVED FACTUAL state of the Arctic Sea Ice; SSTs, SATs; something, anything other than what YOU think the weather MAY do in a week's time?

Bonus points for concentrating on actual events at sea level, +/- 20cm, and visoble from space. At present; or very recent past.

(Double bonus for acknowledging that seawater has 1000x the thermal capacity of air; and 90% of global warming has accumulated in the ocean.)

(A thousand times biilion bonus points if you can demonstrate why 2012 ASI levels were lower than 1979 levels, based on trivial weather patterns. Plus a Nobel Prize to be shared with Judith, as sponsored by Koch Industries.) You too could be frontpage news in the Times of London.

Meanwhile, us amateurs here can either, it seems to me, EITHER report and document the actual observed changes to the ASI at present; OR continue to indulge ourselves in incoherent speculation about the likely state of the ASI in several days time.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on June 01, 2014, 01:20:06 AM
Sorry guys and gals, you are really losing me. Almost the whole of this page, and the previous 3 or 4, seems to be taken up with various squabbles about the prognosis over the following 240 hours for Arctic weather, at ??? HPa,

Does nobody have anything to say about the ACTUAL PRESENT OBSERVED FACTUAL state of the Arctic Sea Ice; SSTs, SATs; something, anything other than what YOU think the weather MAY do in a week's time?

Bonus points for concentrating on actual events at sea level, +/- 20cm, and visoble from space. At present; or very recent past.

(Double bonus for acknowledging that seawater has 1000x the thermal capacity of air; and 90% of global warming has accumulated in the ocean.)

(A thousand times biilion bonus points if you can demonstrate why 2012 ASI levels were lower than 1979 levels, based on trivial weather patterns. Plus a Nobel Prize to be shared with Judith, as sponsored by Koch Industries.) You too could be frontpage news in the Times of London.

Meanwhile, us amateurs here can either, it seems to me, EITHER report and document the actual observed changes to the ASI at present; OR continue to indulge ourselves in incoherent speculation about the likely state of the ASI in several days time.

1.  Current state of the ice is hard to determine.  Most of the ice loss so far has come from flushing.  We have seen a ton of it since March.  So there is a lot of think ice on the Russian side and a lot of MYI has been flushed.

2.  The arctic is clearing out so we will get a better picture the next few days.

3.  I Think starting tonight or tomorrow Jaxa is going to start having large drops.  We have lost essentially no ice in the Baffin/Hudson extent wise.  That is a big key in why some of us think a plummet is coming.


The rest of the stuff you said is right.  It will be easier to melt ice with less and less perfect patterns thanks to AGW. 

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on June 01, 2014, 01:36:04 AM
The GFS has been super consistently bringing the pain.  The euro has waffled a lot.  Although the Euro ensembles remain in bed with the GFS and it's ensembles.

The JMA is on board.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FLs304Rn.gif&hash=175b85dac0e15e2addd5ea05f9a92ba3)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FReemnh1681.gif&hash=77656ea99aee435630cacc76f4c07399)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.wetterzentrale.de%2Fpics%2FRhjma1201.gif&hash=1f9b33eb41c349ec04af0283c20d77fd)


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ghoti on June 01, 2014, 02:09:18 AM
Thanks idunno.

I've been feeling the same as you on this thread. Seems like weeks of posts about future heat based on incorrect forecasts while the weather has remained cloudy/foggy, with below long term average temperatures. What we can see of the ice does look bad and the temperature will go up (they always do this time of year :P) so we'll see June drops. But 10 days forecasts? Are you kidding me? They can't even get tomorrow's forecast right half the time.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: sofouuk on June 01, 2014, 02:44:09 AM
I miss the 'short to medium term weather conditions' thread - this stuff needs a home it can call its own
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 01, 2014, 02:45:48 AM
While I have little understanding of Arctic weather forecast models, I am certain I can no longer trust weather forecasts in the Midwestern U.S. The frequently miss tomorrow's forecast. Yesterday, Chicago was forecast for a  high of 76F. We hit 89F. This has been the rule for  several years now.

I also would not like more focus on what is happening right now.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 01, 2014, 02:50:12 AM
I miss the 'short to medium term weather conditions' thread - this stuff needs a home it can call its own

Do you mean this?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.0.html (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,92.0.html)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Shared Humanity on June 01, 2014, 02:51:41 AM
I actually do believe these forecast models belong here. I would simply like more discussion on other topics related to the melt season.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: ktonine on June 01, 2014, 02:58:23 AM
They can't even get tomorrow's forecast right half the time.

I see this sentiment repeated over and over again (though usually at Watts' or one of the septic sites).  Do you actually have any evidence that weather forecasts 24 to 48 hours out are usually wrong?

Anyone that follows the arctic for a few years becomes achingly familiar with the knowledge that the ice extent/area numbers at this time of year have little to no correlation with the final September minimum; so what is the point in looking at those numbers with any great interest?

Clear skies, melt ponds, and transport over the next three months will determine the minimum.  Nothing you read here today is going to tell you or even give you a reasonable clue as to what's going to happen. 

Idunno what people expect.  Friv, BFTV, and others give us a glimpse into what they see, what their particular interests are.  I appreciate information and opinions *about* the past, current, future state of the ice - and most of that will revolve around weather. 

Instead I'm seeing a lot of people bitching about posts/comments they don't want to read - fine - then don't read them.  Some of us *do* enjoy reading them and would rather you not try to chase these posters away.

Shared Humanity - Chicago is a large metro area.  The temperature in the metro area can vary 15 to 20 F.  It can vary even more anytime the wind shifts even a few degrees if it brings the lake into play.  I have lived most of my life within a few miles of either Lake Superior or Lake Michigan.  Unless you're more than 10 miles inland the lake determines daily weather.  I live just north of you in Milwaukee and our forecasts over the short range are typically very good.  Though I have noticed that  the average front is usually 6 hours late in arriving compared to the forecasts 48 to 72 hours earlier.



Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on June 01, 2014, 03:01:59 AM
Thanks idunno.

I've been feeling the same as you on this thread. Seems like weeks of posts about future heat based on incorrect forecasts while the weather has remained cloudy/foggy, with below long term average temperatures. What we can see of the ice does look bad and the temperature will go up (they always do this time of year :P) so we'll see June drops. But 10 days forecasts? Are you kidding me? They can't even get tomorrow's forecast right half the time.

I think... it on some level, is about fear.  I'll introduce my sumo wrestler metaphor here.

The "game" - net energy available in the environment - has been changing in more noticeable ways.  The weather is a symptom of that; the state of the ice is a symptom of that. 

We have already seen 6 months of absolutely extraordinary weather which has been very detrimental to the ice... to the degree that, in spite of a recovery last melt season, the ice at peak in April was no better off than at the start of 2012.  We have good reason to fear predictions of heat over the arctic.

Hyperbole aside, there are titanic forces at work energy-wise - my sumo wrestlers - and the mat has been progressively been tipping in favor of increasing melt.  One of these times, the "melt" wrestler will succeed in tossing his opponent off of the mat, this year, next, or whenever.  At some point the mat will tip so far in favor of melt, that any manner of supportive weather will fail, and we will see a catastrophic drop.

So, in view of that, I don't really find hyperbole that far out of place.  The way I look at it, it is just someone pointing out that this might be "it".

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on June 01, 2014, 03:21:56 AM
There is nothing more important then speculating on the the weather attm.  Why on Earth would we ignore 10 days guidance just because it's validation sucks?

This is how sea ice tracking has always been everywhere it's tracked.  How can one expect to be a better forecaster if they don't speculate.  There are threads for folks who want numerical analysis in real time only and want to project off of that.

If that is what the folks here want then we can stop speculating on the weather and create a new thread.

But I guarantee this thread will die and everyone will post in that one even if they say they don't like medium range weather talk.

It's a bit funny because the highlight of following the arctic sea ice for most of us was the 7-8 day lead up in early August 2012.

That powerhouse vortex showed up on the GFS and Euro over a week out.  And it was pushed back 2 days at least while the models continued to build it up and starting throwing out a mega cyclone.

The gratifying part was that if you followed the weather all summer you had a gut feeling that this was going to be different and then we saw the most incredible cryosphere climate change event so far in modern human history unfold in real time with a 7-8 day lead up.

Well we are not talking about this dipole being here in a week It's here right now.  The arctic has already started to rapidly clear and temps are starting to warm quickly. 

There is going to be consequences at least some what of a plummet even if there is a model reversal(not gonna happen).  It's only May 31st. 




I know I am not the only one who checks all the model runs everyday to watch the patterns unfold and try and predict what happens next.

As well as check modis, jaxa concentration graphs, ssts, buoys, regional numerical analysis and so on.

Oh not to forget snow cover, ice albedo(modis). 


Anyways this reminds me of 2012.  There was a big vocal group who thought us doomsday folks were full of it.  Then the bottom dropped out.

This year the ice was primed by flushing not melting.  It was some very well timed flushing the ice replacing the 3-4Meter MYI is 1M or less FYI.  The Laptev is pretty much chocked with it out to 80N now.  We have a huge ass open hole of water over there and it's not been that warm.  There is a reason.

Now the ice is on the move as you all can see.  I think you can imagine the open water about to open up as the ice pinwheels around the ESS but doesn't get pressed back into the Laptev while large parts of the Beaufort all the way around the coast is about to quickly open up.

Oh and look at the Hudson there is nearly no open water.  Finally today some is appearing by Churchhill.

Look at that weak Kara and Barents ice.  Yeah it's trash.  The ice is all trash.  The 5 year old ice in the Beaufort is under 2 meters thick in spots.  you know what that is?

Look down the North Atlantic.  That is some heavy real estate down there.  That ice is still funneling all the way to 55N.  It's toast it's almost transparent all over and now it's getting torched as of right now.  :)

We are 400K+ above 2010 in the Barents/STLSEAWAY and 200K above it in the Beaufort. 

That ice is not only guaranteed to melt it's going to vanish rapidly while the dipole/ridging rages in the basin = plummet.


The end of line.


The only positive is higher than normal snow cover.  But what will that do when it gets belted by the sun every day from now till whenever the ridging stops?  How much water should we gather is going to be trapped on top of the ice gathering precious heat crushing the albedo.  How big will those melt ponds be around large ridges and wet snow banks? 

Are we going to see some mini melt lakes on larger floes this year in the Beaufort where the snow is up to 1M thick in spots still?  Holy crap that is a ton of water that has to go "threw" or "around" the ice below when it's warm enuf to melt the ice as a great transmitter of energy.






(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FuxBl1Q8.gif&hash=38f83abe1793c5d7d37c9386840ef4c8)


I guarantee the topic within 3 days will be the huge drops on CT and Jaxa.

Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Yuha on June 01, 2014, 03:59:47 AM
Hudson Bay is feeling the heat this weekend. Climate Reanalyzer is showing above zero temperatures over the whole bay even through the night until late Sunday. On MODIS it has turned blue.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: icefest on June 01, 2014, 04:20:41 AM
I appreciate the posturing about the weather 10 days in advance.  I might only understand half of what is said - but half is still better than none. 
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Yuha on June 01, 2014, 04:36:40 AM
What is happening on the ice when it turns blue in MODIS images?

My totally uneducated guess is that the blue color indicates that the snow on top the ice has melted but the ice itself is still intact. In the next stage the ice typically turns gray which I interpret as a sign that the crystal structure of the ice is starting to break down. But this is a pure guess. Does anybody have more concrete knowledge?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Frivolousz21 on June 01, 2014, 05:23:07 AM
It has begun.

Jaxa dropped -85,000K on day one.

Only going to get worse from here.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FrwmbWXn.png%3F1&hash=59a088965ac94ffc4e30f8087f01d8a7)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Csnavywx on June 01, 2014, 07:38:22 AM
What is happening on the ice when it turns blue in MODIS images?

My totally uneducated guess is that the blue color indicates that the snow on top the ice has melted but the ice itself is still intact. In the next stage the ice typically turns gray which I interpret as a sign that the crystal structure of the ice is starting to break down. But this is a pure guess. Does anybody have more concrete knowledge?

The blue color is from melt ponding.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: jdallen on June 01, 2014, 08:07:33 AM
Ok, previous discussion about open water aside, what disturbs me most right now is summarized well in this image:

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png (http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png)

In the quadrant between 80 N and 85N , between 150E and 165E, is an area of ice which is showing closer to 30% open water.

Considering that nothing lke that started showing up for closer to 30 days last year or the year before, I find that a bit disturbing.

I find that disturbing for two reasons.  First, I've found the DMI over all in two years of my following it, has tended to be more rather than less reliable. Second, it suggests profoundly unpleasant conclusions as to the state of the ice currently.

Add that to the various weather projections which have been getting discussed over the last week or so, it leads me to very pessimistic conclusions.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: seattlerocks on June 01, 2014, 08:45:38 AM
Friv, two thumbs up. I didn't follow this in 2012, but I give you credit in that in 2013 you were trying to cool things down when many of us were hyped by the fragility of the ice after 2012, and we were expecting ice doom regardless of weather. This is also why people are paying more attention to forecasts this year, whether admittedly or not. Now add all facts that you explained about current state of the ice. It makes sense.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on June 01, 2014, 08:48:19 AM
Don't let your local weather forecast get you down so much that you extrapolate it elsewhere. My local weather forecast sucks so much you won't believe it, but it's only logical as I have the Adriatic at my doorstep in the southwest, the Alps towering right to the northwest of me, and the Hungarian plains to the east. There's huge and rapid shifts between these climate zones, and I would be amazed for a weather forecast model to divine all of what's coming.

But when weather forecasts for the Arctic stay the same for a couple of days, there's a very good chance it will come about. Friv's example of GAC-2012 is very strong proof of that. I put up a blog post (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2012/08/cyclone-warning.html) about the cyclone, just 1 day in advance, but in hindsight I could've done it 3 days earlier.

Quote
Does nobody have anything to say about the ACTUAL PRESENT OBSERVED FACTUAL state of the Arctic Sea Ice; SSTs, SATs; something, anything other than what YOU think the weather MAY do in a week's time?

I do, I do! I just posted ASI 2014 update 2 on the ASIB: Here comes the Sun (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/06/asi-2014-update-2-here-comes-the-sun.html). A couple of snippets:

Quote
It seems the high is forecasted to stay more or less in position, and even intensify. In fact, high pressure seems to take over the Arctic from all corners, Greenland, the Kara Sea, the East Siberian Sea. I can't say I have seen this often in the past 5 years.

I'm not sure what it'll do for ice transport (for that you need pressure gradients, ie winds, and there won't be much of a low pressure system in coming days), but this basically is an atmospheric set-up that is very conducive to melting, and very conducive to widespread formation of melt ponds. Though not as bad as last year, a relatively cold and cloudy May is now behind us, but maybe the first half of June can still give a boost to melt pond formation (and SIE/SIA decrease) that will keep 2014 in the running for a top 3 position at the end of the melting season.

But for that high(er) temperatures are needed as well.

(...)

Temps are relatively low in the Arctic, as can be seen on the NOAA/ESRL 1-day anomaly map:

(...)

However, according to the GFS weather model this is about to change. I've made a short animation, using images from the most excellent and visually stunning ClimateReanalyzer website (produced by the Climate Change Institute at the University of Maine), that shows the forecast for the coming 10 days:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fneven1.typepad.com%2F.a%2F6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73dcf6ff5970d-800wi&hash=c3898e471e3b64aec7fc90bc35540079)

Conclusion

If it weren't for the recent changes in atmospheric patterns and the current forecast, chances would have already been very slim that this melting season would do something à la 2012, or even 2007/2011. Because the start can potentially break the rest of the melting season. And this year's start has been pretty similar to last year's, though not as cold, cloudy, or cycloney (hey, I just invented a word).

Still, clear skies and higher temps coming to the Arctic right at the very end of the start, do not mean that 2014 will now cruise to record breaking territories either. The Arctic don't work that way. There are a lot of pieces in this puzzle, even though I'm a bit fixated on melt ponds right now. For instance, PIOMAS will update in a couple of days, and should be interesting.

As usual we keep keeping an eye on things, here and on the Forum. Put your sunglasses on.


Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Yuha on June 01, 2014, 09:18:02 AM
What is happening on the ice when it turns blue in MODIS images?

My totally uneducated guess is that the blue color indicates that the snow on top the ice has melted but the ice itself is still intact. In the next stage the ice typically turns gray which I interpret as a sign that the crystal structure of the ice is starting to break down. But this is a pure guess. Does anybody have more concrete knowledge?

The blue color is from melt ponding.

But melt ponds are not always blue. The blueness seems to require more specific conditions. Is it the surface shape of the ice, the internal structure of the ice, the thickness of the ice or what?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Neven on June 01, 2014, 09:52:34 AM
FYI, I have put up polls for predicting the minimum: NSIDC SIE monthly/September average minimum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,884.0.html) and CT SIA daily minimum (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,885.0.html). Mind the differences before voting.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: DavidR on June 01, 2014, 10:25:39 AM
Chris Reynolds' analysis of the PIOMAS data for April, http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/piomas-april-2014-gridded-data.html (http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/piomas-april-2014-gridded-data.html), suggests that the critical thing this season will be the thickness distribution of the ice. It  appears that  there was a much smaller area of thin ice (< 1.6m)  in April but  a much  larger area of medium thickness ice (1.6 - 2.2 m) than in 2012.  Looking at his graphs it suggests that  most of the ice below this thickness will melt out  in an average season and even more if conditions favor  melt.   
The graphs suggest  that  we will see a slow start  to  reduction in extent but  a very fast  decline as the season progresses.  There is very little ice greater than 2.6 m thick which might set the limit if conditions favored melt.
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Bob Wallace on June 01, 2014, 10:28:58 AM
Perhaps there's a need for "the Arctic weather forecast" separate from the larger topic of the current melt.

Bifurcation time?
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Jim Hunt on June 01, 2014, 11:02:00 AM
Since it's the first of a new month I was hoping to be able to bring you some new ice mass balance buoy temperature profiles by now. Unfortunately the IMB web site, including the downloadable data files, still seems to be stuck on May 29th:

http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm (http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/newdata.htm)

The same seems currently to also apply to the Hamburg AMSR2 maps:

ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/ (http://ftp://ftp-projects.zmaw.de/seaice/AMSR2/3.125km/)
Title: Re: The 2014 Melting Season
Post by: Lord M Vader on June 01, 2014, 12:34:32 PM
During a normal melt season, how much of the ice melts out due to its thickness in the "real" Arctic aside from the shorelines? --> Is it possible to see 3-4 m thick ice melt out completely during the season? What is the confidence interval? If it's in the range 1,5-3,0 m we could make a rough estimate of which areas that will melt out. Ice less than 1 m thickness we will guaranteed see to be gone by september. Your ideas?:)

One more thing is how the ice in ESS have holding its own against melting despite its low thickness there. Should change if the high pressure dome grows to full strength next week.

About the SIE according to JAXA we should reach next threshold in the end of next week if not sooner. The earliest day is June 3 in 2011 when the SIE went below 11 Mn km2. One interesting notice is that June 2010 is the only year