Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

AGW in general => Science => Topic started by: Jim Hunt on March 26, 2014, 02:48:22 PM

Title: ARCUS 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 26, 2014, 02:48:22 PM
It has recently come to my attention (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,775.msg22937.html#msg22937) that there will be live webcasts from next week's 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop (http://www.arcus.org/sipn/meetings/workshops/april-2014) in Boulder!

Even more recently Neven has announced (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/piomas-march-2014.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73d9a2791970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73d9a2791970d) that he has been invited to talk about the Arctic Sea Ice Blog to the audience in Boulder, albeit remotely.
Title: Re: ARCUS 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 28, 2014, 11:19:25 AM
In related news, here's an NSDIC press release about a new paper from Julienne Stroeve, Larry Hamilton et. al.

Seasonal Arctic summer ice extent still hard to forecast (http://nsidc.org/news/press/2014_seasonalseaice_PR.html)

Quote
Short term predictions are achievable, but challenges remain in predicting anomalous years, and there is a need for better data for initialization of forecast models,” Stroeve said. “Of course there is always the issue that we cannot predict the weather, and summer weather patterns remain important."

There's a link to a paywall free copy of the paper (http://nsidc.org/news/images/2014_grl51537.pdf), which says (amongst other things) that:

Quote
In some years, the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) ensembles accurately predict the September mean extent, while in other years the observed extent falls outside the range of any prediction. This is true regardless of the general method used for prediction, and whether or not we exclude contributions classified as general public. The predictions tend to be poor when the sea ice departs from the long-term trend. Indeed, the mean squared error (MSE) of SIO predictions is only slightly better than a series of linear-trend predictions, each calculated from data up to but not including the target year.
Title: Re: ARCUS 2014 Sea Ice Prediction Workshop
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 15, 2014, 10:04:47 AM
As Neven has pointed out (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/05/sipn-presentation.html), videos of the 2014 SIPN workshop are now available on YouTube:

http://www.youtube.com/user/ARCUSvideo/videos (http://www.youtube.com/user/ARCUSvideo/videos)

Please forgive the self indulgence, but this is the one where Larry Hamilton quoted from a "little bit critical" comment of mine (http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/03/forecast-me-not.html?cid=6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da00c6b970d#comment-6a0133f03a1e37970b01a73da00c6b970d) on the ASIB:

http://youtu.be/6mMINE1sEHI (http://youtu.be/6mMINE1sEHI)