Arctic Sea Ice : Forum

Cryosphere => Arctic sea ice => Topic started by: Lord M Vader on May 09, 2014, 09:05:19 PM

Title: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 09, 2014, 09:05:19 PM
Well, as Pmt started the Northwest Passage I thought that we would need a thread about the Northeast Passage... Last year the passage was open for some weeks as the ice around Severnaya Zemlya finally broke up in august.. So, what can we expect this year? Personally, I think that the Northeast Passage (hereafter "NEP") will continue to be ice free for about 9 of 10 years. The reasons for that are following:

1) the ice in the NEP is much thinner and therefore much more likely to melt out during the melt season.

2) despite such unfavorable conditions for melting ice as 2013 offered the NEP managed to become ice free even if it only was for a limited time. In fact, most of the thickest ice surrounding the NEP is today just west and north of Severnaya Zemlya.

I'm going to say some words about the NWP too. I think it will be highly unlikely that we'll see an ice free NWP this year. The western part of the Northern Route is blocked by, according to ACFNS, almost 5 m thick ice and the "Amundsen path" will probably open up almost everywhere except for the area in the middle of the Northern Route. Given that the weather pattern have been quite persistent now for a while which likely will continue for some time forward there will probably not be too much warming there as would be necessary to melt out all that thick ice in the Northern Route to make the NWP ice free...

Someone may argue if it would be better to put the NWP-thread and the new NEP-thread together. If you think that would be to prefer I won't oppose it.
Title: Re: Northeast Passage thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on May 09, 2014, 09:50:52 PM
2) despite such unfavorable conditions for melting ice as 2013 offered the NEP managed to become ice free even if it only was for a limited time. In fact, most of the thickest ice surrounding the NEP is today just west and north of Severnaya Zemlya

Some vessels that tried last year found that the Northern Sea Route wasn't exactly "ice free":

http://econnexus.org/the-yong-sheng-docks-in-rotterdam-as-the-nordvik-is-holed-on-the-northern-sea-route/ (http://econnexus.org/the-yong-sheng-docks-in-rotterdam-as-the-nordvik-is-holed-on-the-northern-sea-route/)
Title: Re: Northeast Passage thread
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 09, 2014, 10:15:18 PM
Well, I'm not surprised if that was the case as the sea ice maps only cover ice concentrations above 15%... But "ice free" according to SIC - maps...

//LMV
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on May 09, 2014, 10:16:53 PM
LMV, thanks a lot for opening this thread (very interesting theme). I hope you don't mind my changing the title to the more modern name for the Northeastern Passage.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Lord M Vader on May 09, 2014, 11:07:32 PM
Neven: no problems :)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Lord M Vader on August 09, 2014, 09:35:18 PM
Todays map from wipneus and AMSR shows that the Northern Sea Route is essentially ice free per the definition of ice covering more than 15% at the ice maps. NSR should be open now and presumably for about 2 months from now and onward.

What are the earlier dates for opening of the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage?

//LMV
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Espen on August 09, 2014, 09:59:24 PM
Todays map from wipneus and AMSR shows that the Northern Sea Route is essentially ice free per the definition of ice covering more than 15% at the ice maps. NSR should be open now and presumably for about 2 months from now and onward.

What are the earlier dates for opening of the Northern Sea Route and the Northwest Passage?

//LMV

I would think the present Russian embargo will stop any "success" for this route at least for this season?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rick Aster on August 18, 2014, 12:49:50 AM
A recent news report on this year’s weather and shipping volume in the Northern Sea Route:

http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/northern-sea-route-forecast-to-open-from-mid-august.html (http://www.seatrade-global.com/news/americas/northern-sea-route-forecast-to-open-from-mid-august.html)
Quote
GIC expects the NSR via Far North Russia to open from mid-August, open being defined as when a vessel can sail without hitting sea ice, and stay open till around early October.

There has been growing interest in the NSR in recent years as an alternative route to from North Europe to Asia as the summer ice recedes. The NSR Authority in Russia said that over 400 vessels had [applied] for permission to sail through the NSR, more than the record 346 permits granted in 2013.

I have read in past years in shipping industry reports that a large number of ships also travel this route without papers.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: viddaloo on August 18, 2014, 01:35:37 AM
I have read in past years in shipping industry reports that a large number of ships also travel this route without papers.

Not possible as far as I've heard. Norway borders Russia, and they're very strict that every ship/vessel must be accompanied by a Russian icebreaker, just in case. Suppose that's good for the environment, too.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 23, 2014, 02:11:07 PM
Currently there are 555 vessels with official "Permission for navigation on the water area of the Northern Sea Route (http://asmp.morflot.ru/en/razresheniya/)" this year.

One of them is the Hapag-Lloyd cruise ship MS Hanseatic (http://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-hanseatic/position-webcam/), which is currently wending its way through the New Siberian Islands, and which also carries a webcam. Here's what it shows at the moment:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.hl-cruises.com%2Ffileadmin%2Fwebcams2%2Fhan%2F2014_08%2Ff_2014_08_230410.jpg&hash=3c5cdfbbc830011e63a59f238e64da28)

According to the official forecast (http://www.arctic-lio.com/node/223) current ice conditions along the entire NSR are "Easy" or better:



 
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: viddaloo on August 23, 2014, 06:18:44 PM
I would think the present Russian embargo will stop any "success" for this route at least for this season?

Well, 555 permits, up from the previous record of 346 permits granted in 2013, seem to suggest otherwise. The Northern Sea Route is a way to save time and money, and Russia is not a hostile nation, despite what they tell you in the news.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Espen on September 06, 2014, 08:30:29 AM
Here is the position of Polarstern, note the map is updated with the latest sea ice situation:

http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK (http://sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=DBLK)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 01, 2015, 02:36:48 AM
Earlier today The Economist published an article (http://www.economist.com/news/international/21641240-hype-over-arctic-recedes-along-summer-ice-not-so-cool) which claimed that:

Quote
In 2014 traffic fell to 53 ships, only four of which sailed from Asia and docked in Europe.

The decline in 2014 was partly caused by the weather: less sea ice melted last summer than in 2013, so the route was more dangerous.

That didn't make much sense to me, so I wrote an article outlining my reservations :

http://Greatwhitecon.info/2015/01/is-the-economist-being-economical-with-the-truth-about-arctic-sea-ice/ (http://Greatwhitecon.info/2015/01/is-the-economist-being-economical-with-the-truth-about-arctic-sea-ice/)

which contains a couple of videos:

http://youtu.be/Ip7nHT7ezh0 (http://youtu.be/Ip7nHT7ezh0)

http://youtu.be/HTPVhWm5qdY (http://youtu.be/HTPVhWm5qdY)

which rather prove my point (IMHO)! For good measure here's another video about the Nordic Odyssey's transit of the NSR in 2012:

http://youtu.be/bTRV1IIldXU (http://youtu.be/bTRV1IIldXU)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Wipneus on February 02, 2015, 04:56:03 PM
Jim,

Here is a side-by-side animation of the difficult part: the entry to the Vilkitskiy Strait.
Its clear there was far more dangerous ice around in 2013 than in 2014.

(click for a 2.5MB animation)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 02, 2015, 07:18:37 PM
Thanks Wipneus,

That's the way I saw it as well, and your close-up of the Vilkitskiy Strait "choke point" confirms matters.

I have now spoken to The Economist's "man in Tromso", and at his suggestion I will have a good look at the materials made available from this conference:

http://www.arcticfrontiers.com/2015-conference (http://www.arcticfrontiers.com/2015-conference)

As soon as I have a spare 5 minutes that is!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 02, 2015, 10:03:40 PM
The Economist's "man in Tromso" asked if he could take a look at 2012 as well. Here it is, albeit using SSMIS data instead of AMSR2, and therefore 12.5 km resolution instead of 3.125 km:

http://youtu.be/mEST959gMz8 (http://youtu.be/mEST959gMz8)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on July 25, 2015, 11:17:13 AM
*kick*

There's probably still some ice rubble left and right that doesn't get picked up by the microwave sensors, but the Northern Sea Route is about to open up again. I keep forgetting the dates, but this seems relatively early.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 25, 2015, 11:27:38 AM
It does seem remarkably early Neven! I'm not sure there's an entirely rubble free passage just yet though. This is the latest from Sentinel (http://www.polarview.aq/arctic), on the 24th:


(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polarview.aq%2Fimages%2F106_S1jpgsmall%2FS1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150724T225032_286F_N_1.jpg&hash=74675abe26a8d94aab5c565e9dbefc34)

I guess I should update my 2015 video in the near future?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 27, 2015, 11:40:41 AM
Whatever AMSR2 etc. may show, Sentinel suggests we're not quite there yet. This via PolarView (http://www.polarview.aq/arctic) from the 26th:

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polarview.aq%2Fimages%2F106_S1jpgsmall%2FS1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150726T223406_2671_N_1.jpg&hash=8ed56e90abe22cbac0284e63595a6c6d)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 28, 2015, 08:52:06 AM
The latest Sentinel image suggests that the Northern Sea Route is "ice free".

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.polarview.aq%2Fimages%2F106_S1jpgsmall%2FS1A_EW_GRDM_1SDH_20150727T231512_E642_N_1.jpg&hash=c5ed3b7e8d9d1e196c29c1536c768728)

It's not visible in that image, but the Vilkitsky Strait looks to be a very tight squeeze at the moment .
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 28, 2015, 08:28:51 PM
A new version of the GWC NSR video to celebrate the unusually early "ice free" condition:

http://youtu.be/i4Z_pGre3oA (http://youtu.be/i4Z_pGre3oA)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: DavidR on July 29, 2015, 03:01:49 PM
Nothing to see here !

https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worldview/?p=arctic&l=MODIS_Aqua_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%28hidden%29,MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Graticule,Coastlines&t=2015-07-29&v=-156958.22882564017,-848277.4097019401,3775201.77117436,1082986.5902980599

Well certainly no ice 4 Kara!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2015, 12:42:23 PM
The Barents Observer reports that the Chinese cargo ship "Yong Sheng":

Quote
Departed from the Chinese port of Dalian on 8th July and arrived in Sweden on 17 August.

Data from the Russian Northern Sea Route Administration show that the ship passed the Kara Straits and entered the Barents Sea at noon the 12th August.

The “Yong Sheng” will return to China along the same route by the the end of October

http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2015/08/chinese-giant-mulls-more-northern-sea-route-shipping-18-08 (http://barentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2015/08/chinese-giant-mulls-more-northern-sea-route-shipping-18-08)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on December 10, 2015, 05:54:04 PM
From Arctic-info (http://www.arctic-info.com/news/07-12-2015/rogozin--northern-sea-route-could-become-operational-round-the-year):

Quote
08.12.2015
Rogozin: Northern Sea Route could become operational round the year

“Russia has all the possibilities to make the Northern Sea Route operational round the year and in any season,” vice-Premier Dmitry Rogozin said today at a plenary session of the international forum on the Arctic.

"It is important that our structures and bodies responsible for the Northern Sea Route and the administration of the Northern Sea Route should be generators of ideas rather than the bodies stating facts and they should elaborate proposals on creating those technologies that will help make the Northern Sea Route operational round the year and in any season," the vice-premier said. "We have all technological possibilities for this," Rogozin added.

According to his report, the ambitious tasks of developing the Northern Sea Route are a priority for Russia along with the task of ensuring mobility and transport accessibility, TASS reports.

The Northern Sea Route development model will integrate all kinds of transport communication, including the air, river and railway carriages. In his state-of-the-nation address to both houses of Russia’s parliament, President Vladimir Putin stressed the importance of the competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route, which should become a link between Europe and the Asia-Pacific Region, the vice-premier said.

Russia also needs to create its icebreaker fleet, which will open big prospects for leading vessels along the Northern Sea Route, the vice-premier noticed.

Rogozin noted that Russia has invited China to take part in delivery of cargos to the Northern Sea Route.

"Our Chinese partners got interested in it. We do not rule out that there may be interests related to the economic development of the Silk Road. We proposed them to participate in such projects of building railways to transport cargos to the ports of the NSR. In fact, we can say now that this is not just the economic Silk Road but the cool Silk Road," - Rogozin said.

According to the official, raising competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route is only possible if port infrastructure is seriously upgraded.

"Amid this environment it saves us effort of focusing on higher competitiveness of the Northern Sea Route tracks without serious upgrade of sea ports’ infrastructure, provision of modern logistics, saturation of generating capacities, creation of modern communication and navigation systems, provision of navigation safety," Rogozin said.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: jdallen on December 10, 2015, 07:50:21 PM
Re: year round Northern sea route, I think this reflects long term planning, on a generational scale. Climate change is going to force humanity north, as I think we will lose arable land and the ability to support large populations in the tropics.  Near term, this activity shouldn't seriously change the behavior of the ice, but will likely affect habitat.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 18, 2016, 06:22:54 PM
An AMSR2 animation of the NSR over the last couple of months:

http://youtu.be/Kw-10IDCY5w (http://youtu.be/Kw-10IDCY5w)

David Hempleman-Adams (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hempleman-Adams) and 14 year old Ben Edwards (https://benedwardspolaroceanchallenge.wordpress.com/) are amongst the crew of Northabout, currently waiting in Murmansk for the Vilkitsky Strait to clear so they can start their Polar Ocean Challenge (http://polarocean.co.uk/) in earnest. Their voyage started in Bristol, UK a month ago and the plan is to circumnavigate the North Pole in a single season via the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage.

I think they'll need to wait a while longer before setting off on the next leg of their voyage though:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/754964724404609024 (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/754964724404609024)

Apparently they're going to be on the ITV news at 18:30 British Summer Time this evening!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on July 19, 2016, 01:04:13 PM
An AMSR2 animation of the NSR over the last couple of months:

http://youtu.be/Kw-10IDCY5w (http://youtu.be/Kw-10IDCY5w)

David Hempleman-Adams (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Hempleman-Adams) and 14 year old Ben Edwards (https://benedwardspolaroceanchallenge.wordpress.com/) are amongst the crew of Northabout, currently waiting in Murmansk for the Vilkitsky Strait to clear so they can start their Polar Ocean Challenge (http://polarocean.co.uk/) in earnest. Their voyage started in Bristol, UK a month ago and the plan is to circumnavigate the North Pole in a single season via the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage.

I think they'll need to wait a while longer before setting off on the next leg of their voyage though:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/754964724404609024 (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/754964724404609024)

Apparently they're going to be on the ITV news at 18:30 British Summer Time this evening!
Think they have picked a bad year for it, perhaps the only year in a decade where the northern route fails to open. Its been unusually cold in the laptev all summer and despite a brief period of heat this week the below average temperatures look to continue. I suspect even if it does open, it will be too late to get round.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 19, 2016, 10:16:37 PM
Think they have picked a bad year for it.

They're leaving Murmansk tomorrow:

http://polarocean.co.uk/leave-tomorrow-sail-safely-across-one-sea-time/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/leave-tomorrow-sail-safely-across-one-sea-time/)

Quote
All of the Ice charts from Russia Canada and the USA show we can get around across the Barents Sea across the Kara sea and then we hit the ice. In 10 days time will it have retreated enough. Could we get lucky and get a Southerly wind for two days that would shift the ice off shore ? Unknowns.

It is an interesting game of chess. If we leave until our path is free of ice will we have enough time to get through the North west pass before it refreezes and get down the coast of Greenland and across the North Atlantic before the Winter storms chase us home

So one step at a time. Leave and sail safely across one sea at a time.

The Kara is fairly clear, but the going looks tough in the Laptev:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on July 20, 2016, 01:27:14 PM
Think they have picked a bad year for it.

They're leaving Murmansk tomorrow:

http://polarocean.co.uk/leave-tomorrow-sail-safely-across-one-sea-time/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/leave-tomorrow-sail-safely-across-one-sea-time/)

Quote
All of the Ice charts from Russia Canada and the USA show we can get around across the Barents Sea across the Kara sea and then we hit the ice. In 10 days time will it have retreated enough. Could we get lucky and get a Southerly wind for two days that would shift the ice off shore ? Unknowns.

It is an interesting game of chess. If we leave until our path is free of ice will we have enough time to get through the North west pass before it refreezes and get down the coast of Greenland and across the North Atlantic before the Winter storms chase us home

So one step at a time. Leave and sail safely across one sea at a time.

The Kara is fairly clear, but the going looks tough in the Laptev:
And even the ESS is probably not navigable at this stage; in terms of post 2000, let alone post 2007/2012 years this is unusual. Historically this route only opened rarely, I do not think it is inconceivable that the route fails to open at all this year or opens too late for the voyage. 
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 21, 2016, 12:06:01 PM
I do not think it is inconceivable that the route fails to open at all this year or opens too late for the voyage.

Time will tell, but nonetheless Northabout set off from Murmansk yesterday.

http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/)


Temperatures in Tiksi (https://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/21824.html?MR=1) are forecast to be fairly toasty for the next few days. There's not much in the way of offshore winds though:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on July 21, 2016, 01:05:05 PM
I saw that pathological liar Goddard has already started mocking this expedition. Does he even know this isn't a first?  :D

Those Norwegians who circumnavigated the entire Arctic back in 2010, set sail from Murmansk on the 28th of July (http://www.ousland.no/heading-for-alaska/), so in this sense our British friends are early.

The Norwegian crew reached the ice in the Laptev Sea on August 16th (http://www.ousland.no/approaching-the-ice-belt/).

This is how things looked back then, compared to now:

(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-h7Vyyq4vGk0/V5Cq8BLbKOI/AAAAAAAADCw/AFybsC38K3ctDyOdXohPVcYCiUHYP13twCCo/s520/Northern%2BSea%2BRoute%2B2010%2BJuly%2Bvs%2BAugust.gif)

I think the ESS will be easy to pass a month from now, but the bottleneck will be Vilkitsky Strait and then all the way up to the New Siberian Islands. Even if UB SIC maps show open water there - which I'm not sure they will - there will still be plenty of small floes left that will prevent careless sailing.

It's not going to be easy for the Northabout crew! Lots of flash melting needed in the next 4 weeks. But if they make it through the Laptev on time, I think they have a good chance of going all the way.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on July 21, 2016, 02:10:27 PM
It's a bit cloudy today, but if you compare yesterday (top) with today (bottom) I think there has been some flash melting near Vilkitsky Strait (top left of picture):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgibs.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimage-download%3FTIME%3D2016202%26amp%3Bextent%3D718067.6573278304%2C972537.2493148993%2C986099.6573278304%2C1139193.2493148993%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2CCoastlines%26amp%3Bopacities%3D1%2C1%26amp%3Bworldfile%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D1047%26amp%3Bheight%3D651&hash=29d8a62abdfc559abbd53bad41b1b9a6)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fgibs.earthdata.nasa.gov%2Fimage-download%3FTIME%3D2016203%26amp%3Bextent%3D718067.6573278304%2C972537.2493148993%2C986099.6573278304%2C1139193.2493148993%26amp%3Bepsg%3D3413%26amp%3Blayers%3DMODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor%2CCoastlines%26amp%3Bopacities%3D1%2C1%26amp%3Bworldfile%3Dfalse%26amp%3Bformat%3Dimage%2Fjpeg%26amp%3Bwidth%3D1047%26amp%3Bheight%3D651&hash=87dc3f50df5f05cb881d2a2fc99a6cdb)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 22, 2016, 12:18:26 PM
According to Environment Canada (http://weather.gc.ca/analysis/index_e.html) there's a 988 hPa low causing a bit of a blow in the Vilkitsky Strait at the moment:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-22 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-22)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 24, 2016, 02:47:19 PM
Many in the cryodenialosphere seem to believe that Northabout is a clone of the Akademik Shokalskiy:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-24 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-24)

Meanwhile back in the real world there are signs of some open water in the Vilkitsky Strait:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 26, 2016, 12:47:41 PM
The crew of Northabout report from just north of Novaya Zemlya:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-26 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-26)

Quote
The weather has changed, the wind direction has also changed. From the calm turquoise seas, to choppy short seas, wet, windy and cold.

So we took a long tack north, and then tacked east again. There is No hurry. We will slowly make our way east, and if we can find an island with no fast ice around, will look for a sheltered spot, until we get better ice conditions.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on July 26, 2016, 04:50:52 PM
Well whatever the data might be telling us the reality is being experienced by the crew of the Northabout and safe passage to them all.



Will She turn up off the West coast of Greenland a few months from now with claims to have circumvented the Arctic  in a single season?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 27, 2016, 12:06:14 PM
The data suggest that whilst Northabout is finally heading across the Kara Sea towards the Vilkitsky Strait, there's still no navigable channel through to the Laptev Sea:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-27 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-27)

No "safe passage" is visible just yet!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 28, 2016, 02:37:20 PM
A close up look at the ice in the Vilkitsky Strait this morning, via Landsat 8:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-28 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabouts-great-adventure/#Jul-28)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 30, 2016, 12:11:52 PM
The latest UH AMSR2 visualisation suggests that the ice is clearing in the Vilkitsky Strait:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabout-bides-her-time/#Jul-30 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/07/northabout-bides-her-time/#Jul-30)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 10, 2016, 08:22:17 PM
The Northabout is on the move.  They report passing the northern most point in Russia, Cape Chelyuskin though plenty of ice is still all around them. They just need a decent southerly wind to push the ice more off shore so they can sneak into more open water in the Laptev Sea.

http://polarocean.co.uk/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 10, 2016, 10:54:54 PM
The Northabout is on the move.

The latest AARI ice chart (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/07/northabout-bides-her-time/#Aug-09) of the area.

It seems Northabout has encountered ice in places where it is absent from the chart!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 14, 2016, 05:35:21 AM
It appears that Northabout finally squeezed through much of the ice and their log says they within 50m of breaking through to ice free water. With the gale approaching they turned back and headed inland into a natural harbour. They report
Quote
Outside temp 12 degrees and forecast 14 later – Honest !! Water temp 3.8
Wind stirring up ice in those temperatures should lead to good melt.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: jdallen on August 14, 2016, 07:14:47 AM
It appears that Northabout finally squeezed through much of the ice and their log says they within 50m of breaking through to ice free water. With the gale approaching they turned back and headed inland into a natural harbour. They report
Quote
Outside temp 12 degrees and forecast 14 later – Honest !! Water temp 3.8
Wind stirring up ice in those temperatures should lead to good melt.
Water temperature 3.8C?!?!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on August 14, 2016, 09:32:58 AM
It appears that Northabout finally squeezed through much of the ice and their log says they within 50m of breaking through to ice free water. With the gale approaching they turned back and headed inland into a natural harbour. They report
Quote
Outside temp 12 degrees and forecast 14 later – Honest !! Water temp 3.8
Wind stirring up ice in those temperatures should lead to good melt.

Heading inland from the shallow waters at this point would certainly risk coming to grief on some "rubble".   ::)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Andreas T on August 14, 2016, 09:57:05 AM
It appears that Northabout finally squeezed through much of the ice and their log says they within 50m of breaking through to ice free water. With the gale approaching they turned back and headed inland into a natural harbour. They report
Quote
Outside temp 12 degrees and forecast 14 later – Honest !! Water temp 3.8
Wind stirring up ice in those temperatures should lead to good melt.
Water temperature 3.8C?!?!
The position of Northabout between a fairly large island and the mainland http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/) with river inflow in the vicinity makes high water temperatures entirely plausible. The area has been clouded for a long time but on 2. Aug the narrow channel was open water http://go.nasa.gov/2b7Jng7 (http://go.nasa.gov/2b7Jng7) which will have continued to warm over low water depth.
The effect that water can have on the ice off the coast must be small, there is not much of it and it is in a narrow channel. The main effect of the storm there will be to push ice away from the coast.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 14, 2016, 12:30:14 PM
The area has been clouded for a long time.

You may wish to check out some Sentinel 1A imagery of the area?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/#Aug-13 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/#Aug-13)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 14, 2016, 03:19:47 PM
The water temperature from the logs of the Northabout for the last week or so I've been watching have been around 2C pretty consistently. They've been hugging the shore looking for a way to sneak past the ice. I guess this is related to being next to the warm shore and in shallow water.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: deinst on August 16, 2016, 02:03:15 AM
It looks like the Northabout survived the initial onslaught of the storm and has broken through the ice and into the Laptev.  Water temperatures are just under 0 degrees (I don't know how much of this is due to the storm and how much due to deeper water.)  I wish them fair winds and following seas, but am really glad that I am in my all to warm bed.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Andreas T on August 16, 2016, 02:13:35 AM
Northabout has left its achorage in the shelter of Ostrov Severnyy and is on the way eastwards along the coast.
http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/)
MODIS images on worldview indicate that ice has been blown away from the coast and has cleared the way.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on August 16, 2016, 07:45:45 AM
Ports of call are few and far between up there but one hopes they will take the opportunity to detour and put in for supplies soon.

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Andreas T on August 16, 2016, 09:26:36 AM
I don't know whether the hold up means they have to hurry to get through the NWP. How long do they have, a good month?
Depending on wind direction another obstacle might develop as I have indicated on todays MODIS. the red cross marks the approximate position of Northabout.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 16, 2016, 01:44:29 PM
Judging by Ousland's blog they're a few days ahead of his progress in 2010.
He was at 76.60189 N, 112.68207 E on the 17th Aug.  They encountered a storm on about the 21st by the New Siberian islands.
http://www.ousland.no/category/northern-passage-2010/page/8/ (http://www.ousland.no/category/northern-passage-2010/page/8/)
.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2016, 02:03:44 PM
I meant to check up on this. Thanks, Phil.

If they're ahead of Ousland's schedule, they have a good chance of making it. They've done everything right so far. Any updates from Goddard/Heller yet?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 16, 2016, 02:16:54 PM
Any updates from Goddard/Heller yet?

Since you ask, "southwest winds never occurred at lower CO2 levels".

Personally I recommend the better class of reporting from "Snow White", which includes moving pictures of sea ice:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/#Aug-15 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-meets-some-serious-sea-ice/#Aug-15)

http://youtu.be/ZBzshjPvByc (http://youtu.be/ZBzshjPvByc)

She's also rather fond of this:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/759702312256434176 (https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/759702312256434176)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 16, 2016, 03:01:35 PM
Just the usual nonsense, shifted his story from 'blocked by hundreds of miles of 1-2 meter thick ice' to 'strong southwest winds over the past two days pushed the ice far off shore', which of course is said to be perfectly normal and unrelated to global warming.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 16, 2016, 03:26:40 PM
Ousland reached the international date line about the 1st September, so we'll see what the relative performance is by then.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Reggie on August 16, 2016, 06:16:37 PM
 Yesterday morning Watts went on the record and made an unambiguous statement that there is no Arctic cyclone and that it is only the product of my (deranged) imagination.
 Willard Watts...the gift that keeps on giving.

Now for the bad news...
If Monday's JMA 144Z comes to fruition, there is a possible blue Arctic this fall which no sane person desires...check out the 104.2 hPa high  over Greenland!

If so inclined, prayers to the deity of your choice is in order.
 
 
 
 
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 16, 2016, 10:48:28 PM
Ousland reached the international date line about the 1st September

In 2013 Tara didn't cross the international date line until September 10th

http://oceans.taraexpeditions.org/en/jdb/the-date-line-off-wrangel/ (http://oceans.taraexpeditions.org/en/jdb/the-date-line-off-wrangel/)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 16, 2016, 11:49:27 PM
Ousland was at the point where Northabout is now on 19th Aug so about three days leeway.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 17, 2016, 04:07:31 PM
Northabout starting to swing to the north to round the Lena delta.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: APMartie2 on August 18, 2016, 04:58:23 AM
I have been watching the Laptev Sea area from about 8/13 through the intensification process of GAC 2016 (if that is what it is being called) and now a few days after. Winds (per Null school) seem to have blown consistently and quite strongly out into Laptev and towards the New Siberian Islands yet per Daily AMSR2 Sea Ice Maps, the ice does not seem to have moved very much.

I am a bit of noob here, having lurked around the forums since ‘12, so hope this is not too dumb a question but don’t quite understand why the ice did not clear a bit more out of Northern Sea route and drift towards the east. Is there a shoal or bank in this part of Laptev that keeps the ice from moving with wind? Thanks for any insight.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Reggie on August 18, 2016, 06:12:53 AM
@Jim Hunt
Had a brief exchange on Twitter DM with Hempleman Adams...

Northabout encountered  some ice and a sandbar resulting in several manuevers around the obstacles.

He also mentioned being surprised about how many people were "watching" them.

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 18, 2016, 11:32:36 AM
I recall Ousland mentioning shallow water off the delta when he was in this part of the trip.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 19, 2016, 03:25:29 PM
Northabout still ahead of Ousland's position in 2010, also as he had to put into Pevek for a couple of days, is likely to remain so.  Closing in on the Lyakhovsky islands which Ousland passed on Aug 23rd.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2016, 09:42:33 PM
The latest ice chart from my latest update:

"Northabout Races for the Date Line (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/08/northabout-races-for-the-date-line/)"

The East Siberian Sea is (metaphorically) in sight for the crew of Northabout:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 20, 2016, 03:32:35 PM
If the boundary between the Laptev Sea and the East Siberian Sea is marked by the New Siberian Islands then it is no longer metaphorical. The Northabout has passed east of Ostrov Bolshoy Layskhovskiy so I think we can say it is now literally  in the East Siberian Sea.

They haven't posted images lately to show how much or how little ice they are encountering along the way now. Seems to me the massive storm has to be as much of a concern as the ice at this stage of their voyage.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 23, 2016, 01:46:37 PM
The latest ice chart from my latest update:

"Northabout Races for the Date Line (http://greatwhitecon.info/2016/08/northabout-races-for-the-date-line/)"

The East Siberian Sea is (metaphorically) in sight for the crew of Northabout:

Looks like they're heading south at 165º, presumably to round that patch of ice (9)?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Andreas T on August 23, 2016, 02:10:48 PM
worldview has a clear image of this area http://go.nasa.gov/2bKPZlY (http://go.nasa.gov/2bKPZlY), it seems they are near the southern edge of it now if the projection of the track map http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/ (http://polarocean.co.uk/tracking/) is similar enough.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2016, 01:18:59 AM
Northabout crossed 180 degrees longitude south of Ostrov Vrangelya earlier this evening (UTC)

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-races-for-the-date-line/#Aug-25-PM (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/08/northabout-races-for-the-date-line/#Aug-25-PM)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 26, 2016, 01:24:47 AM

I hope they are ready for some rough weather! At least it should be a tail wind....
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 26, 2016, 04:23:08 AM
From the track map it looks like they stopped briefly at 180 long. Probably a well deserved celebration and ceremony for crossing the date line.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2016, 12:19:12 PM
Whilst it does appear there was at least a slow down in the vicinity of 180 degrees Northabout hasn't actually crossed the date line just yet, since it wriggles its way through the Bering Strait at around 168 west:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 26, 2016, 04:27:57 PM
Celebrations confirmed via Twitter:

https://twitter.com/PolarOceanChall/status/769128856900993024

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Cqx9XroXgAAduHE.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 28, 2016, 08:30:44 PM
Looks like they're about to enter Barrow.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: mamooth on August 29, 2016, 12:27:24 AM
At this moment, they appear to be anchored just outside of North Salt Lagoon, which contains the single pier of Barrow harbor (at least that's how I interpret the images). I thought at first they were blowing by Barrow, but no. To get to the harbor, they had to go around Point Barrow, and then come back in from the other side.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 29, 2016, 01:51:06 AM
Looks like they're about to enter Barrow.
Good!
Sailing downwind in a fore & aft rigged boat, with following seas, is never pleasant.  I'd assume that with all the bergy-bits and growlers that scudding off on a series of fast broad tacks was out of the question.
Seems like a great time to get some shore rest, do some repairs, & buy a gimbal for their stove.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 29, 2016, 12:50:47 PM
At this moment, they appear to be anchored just outside of North Salt Lagoon, which contains the single pier of Barrow harbor (at least that's how I interpret the images). I thought at first they were blowing by Barrow, but no. To get to the harbor, they had to go around Point Barrow, and then come back in from the other side.

They had a planned stop over in Barrow for resupply, maintenance and crew change.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 29, 2016, 03:11:25 PM
Since Northabout is no longer voyaging along the NSR, perhaps we might continue that conversation on the NWP thread?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg87889.html#msg87889 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,762.msg87889.html#msg87889)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: charles_oil on September 09, 2016, 10:30:55 PM
Dont know if its the best place - but this evening Channel 5 (uk) has been showing an interesting 2012 documentary about the arctic icebreaking tanker en route for oil & icebreaker development   Route is to Varandey terminal, on the coast of the Barents Sea & the trip was in March.

http://www.channel5.com/show/big-bigger-biggest (http://www.channel5.com/show/big-bigger-biggest)

For the terminal:
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-17/more-oil-is-flowing-from-one-part-of-the-arctic-than-libya (https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-17/more-oil-is-flowing-from-one-part-of-the-arctic-than-libya)

Don't know if it can be found on catch up etc...
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on December 14, 2016, 05:49:43 PM
From The Independent Barents Observer (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2016/12/new-arctic-military-base-declared-ready-operation)

Quote
The Northern Fleet moves into its new premises at Kotelny, the New Siberian Islands. Several more Arctic bases will be opened shortly, military representatives say.

(https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/styles/full_width/public/kotelny_mil.ru_.jpg?itok=w45mBehr)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on December 14, 2016, 08:21:30 PM
It's all go on the NSR news (http://en.portnews.ru/news/231173/) front today!

Quote
The volume of seaborne cargo shipped in transit along the Northern Sea Route, as of December 1, 2016 reached 6.9 million tonnes, an official of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia said Tuesday.

Alexander Cybulski, Deputy Minister of Economic Development of Russia, speaking at a session of the state commission on development of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation said that was a record figure.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 26, 2017, 07:04:51 PM
According to the Siberian Times (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0847-icebreakers-make-historic-arctic-voyage-then-get-stuck-in-frozen-sea-on-return-journey/):

Quote
Bulk carriers Sinegorsk and Johann Mahmastal made a successful midwinter cargo crossing from Arkhangelsk to Russia's northernmost port of Pevek, Chukotka, escorted by icebreakers Kapitan Dranitsyn and Admiral Makarov.

It was the first such crossing since Soviet times, and the ships delivered supplies for the supplies for the world's first floating heat and power plant to be assembled in Chukotka after a journey lasting from 14 December to 7 January.

The ease of the sailing is seen as a sign that climate warming in the Arctic can open up shopping lanes even in midwinter. But the climate remains unpredictable as the four vessels have discovered on their return route.

They are currently trapped by sudden thick ice around Chukotka's northernmost cape Shelagsky, some 24 nautical miles from Pevek, in some of Russia's most exposed waters.

In a subsequent story (http://siberiantimes.com/other/others/news/n0857-blow-to-northern-sea-route-as-voyages-of-two-icebreakers-are-broken-by-ice/) the Siberian Times reveals that:

Quote
A spokesman for Rosmorport has announced the icebreakers will delay a return until probably May or early June. 'The vessels will remain for the winter because of the very heavy severe ice conditions,' he said.

All the vessel got out of the ice, and three of them - Captain Dranitsyn and the two cargo ships - returned to Pevek. The Admiral Makarov moved further east to continue working for Rosmorport in clearing sea routes.

Officials said the icebreakers could have gone further through the ice but there was 'a very high risk of significant damage' to the supply ships, and it was decided to postpone the return to Archangelsk.




Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 02, 2017, 06:27:59 PM
The Independent Barents Observer reported yesterday (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2017/02/new-mid-winter-arctic-shipping-tanker-makes-it-through-bering-strait) that:

Quote
The Shturman Ovtsyn (http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/fleetlist/item352.html) set course for the history books when it in late December left the yard of the Samsung Heavy Industries in South Korea. On 21st December, it made it through the Bering Strait and into the Chukchi Sea in a convoy escorted by nuclear-powered icebreaker 50 Years of Victory.

Two other vessels, the heavy load carrier Audax and general cargo ship Arktika-1, were also part of the convoy.

It was tough sailing. In the East-Siberian Sea, the ships had to make it through an area of combined one-year and multi-year pack-ice. Ice conditions were very difficult, the sailors admit.

On 3rd January, the ships arrived in the Gulf of Ob. While the Audax and Arktika-1 docked in Sabetta, the port on the northern end of the Yamal Peninsula, the Shturman Ovtsyn singlehandedly proceeded deeper into the gulf to Cape Kamenny and the Novy Port oil terminal.

It was a unique and unprecedented operation. Never before has such a convoy crossed through the Northern Sea Route, from the east to the west, at this time of year.

Here's the official map of the convoy's route from Sovcomflot's original Russian language news article (http://sovcomflot.ru/press_office/news_articles/item83296.html):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fsovcomflot.ru%2Fupload%2F19563_originalimage_pkpachrchtpa.jpg&hash=f257e6631913cad4699f5b53fec734fb)

More recently there's this news of another new Sovcomflot oil tanker:

Quote
On 29th January, the Shturman Albanov (http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/fleetlist/item350.html) picked up oil from Gazprom Neft’s Arctic Gate terminal off the coast of Cape Kamenny. That marked the first one million tons of oil shipped from the terminal.

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on February 02, 2017, 06:48:48 PM

Welcome to a commercial Arctic.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gregcharles on February 02, 2017, 09:33:00 PM
"Never before has such a convoy crossed through the Northern Sea Route, from the east to the west, at this time of year."

That's an interesting point. Was there a previous winter crossing from the west to the east? Why would that be easier?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 02, 2017, 09:39:10 PM
Was there a previous winter crossing from the west to the east?

Not that rings any bells in my ageing brain, but I may do my due diligence when I have a spare 5 minutes.

Quote
Why would that be easier?

Because the Vilkitsky Strait is the furthest north "choke point" on the NSR, and you pass through there earlier heading west to east?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: binntho on February 03, 2017, 08:48:30 AM
By a funny coincidence (!), news outlets in Iceland are today reporting that the Bremen Port Authority has received green light from the Bremen authorities (the senate of the Freie Hansestadt Bremen) to go ahead with preparing the construction of a massive port facility and container terminal in North-Eastern Iceland. This project has been ongoing for some time, mostly in the discussion stage, but now with the go-ahead from the Bremen city senate, the project moves to the next phase.

The purpose of the port facility is solely to open op for shipping by special-built arctic container vessels between the port in Iceland and a matching facility on the Pacific side, most likely in Kamchatka.

Press release (in German): http://www.bremenports.de/unternehmen/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressedetailseite?news_id=2905 (http://www.bremenports.de/unternehmen/presse/pressemitteilungen/pressedetailseite?news_id=2905)

Map and location of proposed port facility:

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 03, 2017, 10:44:24 AM
Press release (in German)

Thanks for the heads up. More in English at:

https://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/211764/bremenports-to-take-part-in-developing-finnafjord-port-in-iceland/ (https://worldmaritimenews.com/archives/211764/bremenports-to-take-part-in-developing-finnafjord-port-in-iceland/)

and:

http://www.bremenports.de/en/finnafjord (http://www.bremenports.de/en/finnafjord)

P.S. Has anybody else seen "Trapped (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06xttds)"?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on February 03, 2017, 11:10:23 AM
Some news from the Northern Sea Route Information Office as well (although their website (http://www.arctic-lio.com/newspage) is currently offline):

+ 02.02.2017
+ Traffic volume on the NSR increased in 2016
+ Traffic volume on the Northern Sea Route in 2016 has increased by 35% in
+ comparison with 2015 and reached 7 mln 265,7 th tonnes
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 03, 2017, 11:44:37 AM
Some news from the Northern Sea Route Information Office as well (although their website is currently offline):

I see what you mean. The NSRA site is working though. Current traffic:

http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/ (http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Carex on February 03, 2017, 12:31:34 PM
Russia, earlier this year sent a convoy, east to west, from Archangel to Pevek.  Technically not a passage through but close enough.  This route was also used in Soviet times.  They seem to have become stuck on the return trip, just about the time the early January storm was moving most of the ice mass west.  Referance: Atlas Obscura. I also read something in a translated Russian article but do not remember what it was from.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 03, 2017, 01:05:26 PM
Russia, earlier this year sent a convoy, east to west, from Archangel to Pevek

Might this be the one you're thinking of?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=854.msg100668#msg100668 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=854.msg100668#msg100668)

If so please see my latest learned journal article on the topic for an "alternative" take on the news:

Alternative Facts About the Arctic in 2017 (http://greatwhitecon.info/2017/02/alternative-facts-about-the-arctic-in-2017/)

Unbiased peer reviewers welcome!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: charles_oil on February 03, 2017, 03:22:10 PM
Plenty of activity...

Russia in Biggest Arctic Military Push Since Soviet Fall
January 30, 2017 by Reuters
http://gcaptain.com/russia-biggest-arctic-military-push-since-soviet-fall/ (http://gcaptain.com/russia-biggest-arctic-military-push-since-soviet-fall/)

Sovcomflot’s Arctic Tankers Hit Milestone ‘One Million Tonnes’
January 30, 2017 by gCaptain
http://gcaptain.com/sovcomflots-arctic-tankers-hit-milestone-one-million-tonnes/ (http://gcaptain.com/sovcomflots-arctic-tankers-hit-milestone-one-million-tonnes/)

PHOTOS: ‘HHL Valparaiso’ Delivers STS Cranes via North Sea Route
January 5, 2017 by Mike Schuler
http://gcaptain.com/photos-hansa-heavy-lift-vessels-delivers-sts-cranes-via-north-sea-route/ (http://gcaptain.com/photos-hansa-heavy-lift-vessels-delivers-sts-cranes-via-north-sea-route/)
They arrived at the port of Vostochny   http://www.vostport.ru/en/ (http://www.vostport.ru/en/) so I guess a delicate load like this isn't too much of a worry nowadays.

For a both-ways trip in 2010:
Russian container ship makes history with round-trip arctic voyage - November
http://gcaptain.com/russian-container-ship-history/ (http://gcaptain.com/russian-container-ship-history/)


Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: binntho on February 03, 2017, 10:56:36 PM
Looking at the transit statistics, it seems that there has been a sharp fall between 2013 ( 71 vessels) and 2014 (22 vessels). Why?

http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits (http://www.arctic-lio.com/nsr_transits)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 03, 2017, 11:27:11 PM
Looking at the transit statistics, it seems that there has been a sharp fall between 2013 ( 71 vessels) and 2014 (22 vessels). Why?

Geopolitics?

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg33924.html#msg33924 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg33924.html#msg33924)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on February 24, 2017, 01:25:35 PM
Cross posting from the Arctic Drilling thread (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,525.msg104113.html#msg104113):

Traffic on the NSR can reach 75 mln tons to 2025 (http://www.arctic-lio.com/node/265)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.arctic-lio.com%2Fimages%2Fnews%2F2017-02-20.jpg&hash=168924379b38b7b0fca2ab6e75330aec)

Quote
The traffic on the Northern Transport Corridor that includes arctic seas from the Barents and the White to the Chukchi and the Bering seas can reach 75 mln tons per year to 2025, reported to TASS Mikhail Grigoryev, the member of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences in geology issues and development of oil, gas and coal.

“We have analyzed the extent of companies’ production on approved development projects and seen if applied projects – “Arctic LNG”, shipment of coal from “Chaika” terminal, “Pechora LNG” - are additionally implemented, to 2025 the traffic in the Arctic waters (including the NSR) concerned with the development of mineral resources will reach around 75 mln tons per year”, said Mr. Grigoryev prior to the 2nd International Conference “Arctic-2017”, that takes place on 16-17th of February in Moscow.

As he said, overall traffic on the NSR in 2016 exceed 7 mln tons and in North East passage – 18 mln tons.

“International transit via the NSR in 2016 has reached to 240 th. tons. This amount does not include pass-through voyages, when a vessel sails through all the Route and calls in an arctic port for cargo delivery. The export of hydrocarbon raw materials arranged the main cargo flow. 8 mln tons was exported from Varandey port in the Pechora Sea, 2 mln tons of cargo flow were provided by Prirazlomnaya oil platform, around 3 mln tones gave Novyy Port”, said Mr. Grigoryev.

The main delivered cargo is connected with the construction of Yamal LNG, most of them delivered by sea and some by rivers. “It is temporary situation, further, the cargo type will be changed, and significant delivery will start. When the Yamal LNG plant reaches estimated capacity it will give 16,5 mln tons of LNG and around 1,5 mln tons of gas condensate. Export growth is already evident: in 2015 the delivery to the ports and harbors of the Northern Sea Route was 73% of total traffic, and in 2016 it was reduced to 43%.”

Hydrocarbon traffic on the NSR, according to experts, should reach 40 mln tons by 2022. Mr.Grigoryev precised that the amount includes only those projects that have existing development projects, almost 25 mln tons will be compiled in the Ob Bay.


Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 12, 2017, 11:19:18 AM
I wonder how those "ice bound icebreakers" are coping with the latest developments near Chaunskaya Bay?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#Chukchi (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/resources/arctic-sea-ice-images/winter-201617-images/#Chukchi)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on March 12, 2017, 11:41:40 AM
TASS reports (http://tass.com/economy/930620) that:

Quote
The cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in 2016 reached a level above the previous record of 6.9 million tons, and by 2020 it may reach 31 million tons depending on development of the Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye gas field and further development of Yamal’s deposits, FESCO’s (Far East Shipping Company) Head of the Fleet Department Vladimir Chabrov told TASS on Monday.

"The Ministry of Economic Development reports a record level of cargo turnover along the Northern Sea Route in 2016 - as of December 1, 2016, 6.9 million tons were transported there, which is a record in that transport corridor’s history, including the Soviet times," he said. "Due to stages of developing the Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye gas field and to further development of nearby hydrocarbon deposits in Yamal, the cargo turnover may reach 31 million tons by 2020 already. The biggest part of the cargo would be raw material from the Prirazlomnoye and Port Sabetta fields."

(https://cdn1.tass.ru/width/744_b12f2926/tass/m2/en/uploads/i/20170213/1161304.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Cate on March 12, 2017, 02:45:55 PM
Such a powerful image, Jim.

Russia is owning the Arctic.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 03, 2017, 05:16:00 PM
Via F.Tnioli (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg119312.html#msg119312), news from March 30th:

Quote
The 80,000 tonne-capacity Christophe de Margerie, an ice-class tanker fitted out to transport liquefied natural gas, docked in the icy port of Sabetta, with Russian President Vladimir Putin watching via live video-link.

Putin congratulated the crew and energy company officials gathered on the ship's bridge, saying: "This is a big event in the opening up of the Arctic."

The South Korean-built vessel was not picking up a cargo on its maiden voyage, but will eventually be used to transport gas from Russia's Yamal LNG plant, which is near the port.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-novatek-lng-putin-idUSKBN1712K6 (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-novatek-lng-putin-idUSKBN1712K6)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fs2.reutersmedia.net%2Fresources%2Fr%2F%3Fm%3D02%26amp%3Bd%3D20170330%26amp%3Bt%3D2%26amp%3Bi%3D1178708023%26amp%3Bw%3D%26amp%3Bfh%3D%26amp%3Bfw%3D%26amp%3Bll%3D780%26amp%3Bpl%3D468%26amp%3Bsq%3D%26amp%3Br%3DLYNXMPED2T1JF&hash=6336f2955c2ec250282299b15cde2369)

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on July 26, 2017, 01:02:45 PM
The Northern Sea Route seems to be pretty much open now:

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png)

Perhaps technically a little more melt is needed around Severnaya Zemlya, but the ice there is disappearing quickly, and I suspect that many ships would have no problem getting through already:

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctichesky_AMSR2_visual.png)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 26, 2017, 02:23:51 PM
I suspect that many ships would have no problem getting through already.

No problem if following 50 Let Pobedy! An unaccompanied yacht might prefer to wait a little longer however?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on July 26, 2017, 04:31:52 PM
Not so much thinking of yachts as commercial shipping with a high ice class. If you look on Modis there seems to be a route through Vilkitsky Strait, but perhaps too much ice around for anyone to risk it yet. The ice is going pretty quickly, anyway.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 26, 2017, 04:52:41 PM
I don't think the Russkies will worry about a few scratches on the ships in their convoys. (Many years ago I met some Russian trawlermen in West Africa, having a break from Arctic Fishing to raid African waters. They were great company but totally nuts). And Russia does have 40 icebreakers to assist. But isn't there a database somewhere that tracks all registered shipping?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on July 26, 2017, 04:55:20 PM
There's this one:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:103.3/centery:74.5/zoom:3 (https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:103.3/centery:74.5/zoom:3)

Plenty of ships in the general area, but none that are obviously on their way through from Europe to Asia or vice-versa yet.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 26, 2017, 05:11:42 PM
But isn't there a database somewhere that tracks all registered shipping?

There certainly is. Permissions:

http://www.nsra.ru/en/razresheniya/ (http://www.nsra.ru/en/razresheniya/)

Movements:

http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/ (http://www.nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp/)

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on July 27, 2017, 10:13:10 AM
Apparently the GEORGIY USHAKOV is heading from Arkhangelsk to Khatanga, due to arrive on the 2nd of August:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:347497/mmsi:273338250/imo:9210335/vessel:GEORGIY_USHAKOV (https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:347497/mmsi:273338250/imo:9210335/vessel:GEORGIY_USHAKOV)

That would mean travelling through Vitilsky, if accurate. The Mikhail Kutuzov is also showing on the live map as heading towards Taicang in China, which would also probably mean taking the Northern Sea Route. However the live map  isn't confirmed by the page for the vessel, which still has it in Arkhangelsk. We shall see.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 27, 2017, 11:39:28 AM
Meanwhile Yamal reports that it's "Waiting the approach of ships"
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 28, 2017, 01:23:46 AM
Yamal is now heading in the direction of the Vilkitsky Strait in the company of Angrap, Boris Vilkitsky and Yaroslav the Wise. The latter is heading for Pevek:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Shared Humanity on July 28, 2017, 03:41:08 PM
What makes Yaraslov so wise?  :o
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 28, 2017, 03:49:13 PM
What makes Yaraslov so wise?

Here's his life story:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yaroslav_the_Wise

Apparently:

Quote
Nestor the Chronicler and later Russian historians often presented him as a model of virtue, styling him "the Wise".
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 30, 2017, 07:57:35 PM
Yamal (http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=UCJT) and followers have made it through the Vilkitsky Strait:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on July 30, 2017, 09:38:19 PM
But since Yamal is an icebreaker, does this really count as the northern sea route being open? To me it seems we still have a few days to wait before it can be described as open in the colloquial sense.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: cesium62 on July 30, 2017, 09:56:47 PM
But since Yamal is an icebreaker, does this really count as the northern sea route being open? To me it seems we still have a few days to wait before it can be described as open in the colloquial sense.

And then, do we need to consider whether it actually broke (or pushed aside) any ice, versus just being along for extra insurance?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on July 31, 2017, 12:42:45 PM
But since Yamal is an icebreaker, does this really count as the northern sea route being open?

Not in my book, but apparently other people's mileage varies:

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg119308.html#msg119308 (http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1834.msg119308.html#msg119308)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 03, 2017, 12:00:23 PM
From a Total press release (http://www.total.com/en/news/total-inaugurates-northern-sea-route-lng-carrier-christophe-de-margerie):

Quote
After loading its cargo at the Snøhvit LNG export terminal in Norway, in which Total has an 18.4% interest, the Christophe de Margerie is taking the Northern Sea Route to Boryeong in South Korea, where it will deliver a cargo for Total Gas & Power. It’s the first unescorted merchant LNG vessel ever to take this route, which makes it possible to reach Asia via the Bering Strait in 15 days versus 30 days via the Suez Canal.

This technological feat was made possible through the participation of Total teams to the design of these next-generation LNG carriers. Compilations of technology, they efficiently transport large quantities of LNG year-round, without requiring escort icebreakers during the period from July to November. The Christophe de Margerie is the first of a total of 15 planned LNG carriers that will be gradually deployed.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.total.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fstyles%2Fslider_image_960%2Fpublic%2Fthumbnails%2Fimage%2Fc_de_margerie3.jpg&hash=57c8084474aef3b352b4f076423d3779)

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.total.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fstyles%2Fslider_image_960%2Fpublic%2Fthumbnails%2Fimage%2Fcdm_7_va.png&hash=0c982806e936359a5f7ce0b4550772d0)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 03, 2017, 01:22:39 PM
Unescorted tankers from July to November? Watch out for GACs ?

One day some company or other will go "a bridge too far"? Hubris is the normal human condition.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 03, 2017, 01:35:59 PM
Unescorted tankers from July to November? Watch out for GACs ?

One day some company or other will go "a bridge too far"?

Which brings me neatly on to "Search & Rescue" and the new IMO Polar Code:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/what-opening-arctic-sea-routes-mean-for-the-uk/ (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/what-opening-arctic-sea-routes-mean-for-the-uk/)

Avoiding the use of heavy fuel oil is mandatory in the Antarctic, but merely "encouraged" in the Arctic.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Shared Humanity on August 03, 2017, 04:23:36 PM
Unescorted tankers from July to November? Watch out for GACs ?

One day some company or other will go "a bridge too far"? Hubris is the normal human condition.

Yes, but an LNG tanker crash would have a less long lasting environmental impact than oil.

Things go BOOM!!!!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 03, 2017, 05:37:46 PM
Unescorted tankers from July to November? Watch out for GACs ?

One day some company or other will go "a bridge too far"? Hubris is the normal human condition.

Yes, but an LNG tanker crash would have a less long lasting environmental impact than oil.

Things go BOOM!!!!
Where LNG goes so will crude (under a flag of convenience?)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 05, 2017, 11:40:46 PM
Jim
Does the Christophe de Margerie burn LNG, as most or all of the more conventional tankers do? They, even if accompanied by one of the modern mammoth Russian nuclear icebreakers, shouldn't leave too much of a mess behind.
It was a shame when Total's CEO was killed in that horrible accident. He was the only head of a major energy company that seemed to have a real understanding of global warming and what could be done to ameliorate it.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 06, 2017, 01:27:47 AM
Does the Christophe de Margerie burn LNG

According to:

http://www.ship-technology.com/projects/christophe-de-margerie-class-icebreaking-lng-carriers/ (http://www.ship-technology.com/projects/christophe-de-margerie-class-icebreaking-lng-carriers/)

Quote
The icebreaking LNG carrier will be powered by a diesel-electric propulsion system consisting of four 12-cylinder and two nine-cylinder Wärtsilä 50DF diesel fuel engines, as well as an electric propulsion system.

The four-stroke Wärtsilä 50DF engines, which run on LNG and light or heavy fuel oils, deliver a total power output of 64.35MW.

I know not what fuel is used in practice.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Adam Ash on August 06, 2017, 05:04:00 AM
From a Total press release (http://www.total.com/en/news/total-inaugurates-northern-sea-route-lng-carrier-christophe-de-margerie):

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.total.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fstyles%2Fslider_image_960%2Fpublic%2Fthumbnails%2Fimage%2Fc_de_margerie3.jpg&hash=57c8084474aef3b352b4f076423d3779)


Could one be forgiven for imagining that the  Christophe de Margerie is running astern in that photo?  Else the ice is healing up very quickly behind her, and opening obligingly ahead!

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/212611000 (https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/212611000)

The sun/shadow angle looks about right for travelling towards Bering Straight at around 10:00hrs.  (If its 22:00hrs then she's going the wrong way, yes Ship Tracker shows her approaching Bering Straight)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on August 06, 2017, 06:09:07 AM
.....Could one be forgiven for imagining that the  Christophe de Margerie is running astern in that photo?  Else the ice is healing up very quickly behind her, and opening obligingly ahead.....


One of a fleet of specially designed ships for operations in the high arctic.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_acting_ship
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on August 10, 2017, 08:18:09 AM
In terms of the Northern Sea route being open to these ships according to Yamal operations from Sabetta will be year round with the East route being utilized from July to December, The full fleet of 15 will be in operation by the end of 2020, which is a lot of LNG.


http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/business_scope/projects/item1658.html (http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/business_scope/projects/item1658.html)


Is LNG the most "environmentally friendly" of the three fuels it can use?

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: RoxTheGeologist on August 10, 2017, 04:07:35 PM

LNG is the most environmentally friendly of the fossil fuels. It has a high hydrogen to carbon ratio so the grams of CO2 emitted per MJ of energy is relatively low, and it is relatively clean burning

Bunker fuel is actually bloody awful stuff. It has no sulfur spec globally, and is responsible for a significant percentage of criteria emissions.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 10, 2017, 06:19:40 PM
In terms of the Northern Sea route being open to these ships according to Yamal operations from Sabetta will be year round with the East route being utilized from July to December, The full fleet of 15 will be in operation by the end of 2020, which is a lot of LNG.


http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/business_scope/projects/item1658.html (http://www.scf-group.ru/en/fleet/business_scope/projects/item1658.html)


Is LNG the most "environmentally friendly" of the three fuels it can use?


The link says it uses diesel.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 10, 2017, 06:54:55 PM
I is  confused. Are these 15 ships carrying LNG or using LNG as fuel or both.
"I want to know!"
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 10, 2017, 07:03:00 PM
I is  confused. Are these 15 ships carrying LNG or using LNG as fuel or both.
"I want to know!"

Carrying LNG.

ARCTIC LNG CARRIER FOR THE YAMAL LNG PROJECT
Length:   299 metres
Width:   50 metres
Draught (Loading):   11.8 metres
Capacity and type of propulsion system:   3х15 megawatts, diesel-electric ship with three rudder propellers
Ice-breaking capability:   Up to 2.1 m in floe ice when navigating stern-first
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 10, 2017, 07:09:45 PM

Scroll up Phil:

Quote
The four-stroke Wärtsilä 50DF engines, which run on LNG and light or heavy fuel oils, deliver a total power output of 64.35MW.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 10, 2017, 10:23:48 PM

Scroll up Phil:

Quote
The four-stroke Wärtsilä 50DF engines, which run on LNG and light or heavy fuel oils, deliver a total power output of 64.35MW.

The spec. in the link says it's a diesel engine.  Further reading says that the fuel oil is supplemented with LNG boil-off, so it uses both.  :-)
As I understand it the engines are usually run with between 15 and 85% gas.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on August 10, 2017, 11:38:22 PM
Still looks closed, although it can't be long now. My normal method is to trace a clear path on MODIS but I can't see cloud atm so I've made do with 1km MASIE.


Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 11, 2017, 10:05:09 AM
Hey Quantum - Was it you my alter ego "Snow White" recently bumped into on Twitter?

Elucidating "her" cryptic message. Gotta link to your source? "She" knows where it came from, but probably most of your readers do not.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on August 11, 2017, 04:31:54 PM
Hey Quantum - Was it you my alter ego "Snow White" recently bumped into on Twitter?

Elucidating "her" cryptic message. Gotta link to your source? "She" knows where it came from, but probably most of your readers do not.
1km pngs are here: http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/1km/ (http://masie_web.apps.nsidc.org/pub/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/png/1km/)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Hefaistos on August 12, 2017, 02:36:50 PM
On the economic rationale of the NSR, cutting travel time by 40%:
“The Northern Sea Route cuts the travel time from Europe to Asia by a hefty 40 percent and the Christophe de Margerie will cover this distance in just 15 days. Yamal LNG will start sending liquefied gas via the Northern Sea Route before this year is out, and by 2019 it is set to become the biggest liquefied natural gas producer in the world,”

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201708121056402028-russia-lng-shipments/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 12, 2017, 08:44:17 PM
On the economic rationale of the NSR, cutting travel time by 40%:
“The Northern Sea Route cuts the travel time from Europe to Asia by a hefty 40 percent and the Christophe de Margerie will cover this distance in just 15 days. Yamal LNG will start sending liquefied gas via the Northern Sea Route before this year is out, and by 2019 it is set to become the biggest liquefied natural gas producer in the world,”

https://sputniknews.com/russia/201708121056402028-russia-lng-shipments/ (https://sputniknews.com/russia/201708121056402028-russia-lng-shipments/)


An interesting article. If Poland is insisting that American LNG be competitive with Russian gas out of the pipe, as well as Qatar's LNG, their's little or no room for profit. Shipping fraked LNG half way round the world can't work in a free market. Geographical reality remains a factor.


Shipping Russian and Norwegian LNG to SE Asia in 15 days will cut into hopes of Canadian and American LNG sales in that direction. I suppose we'll have to add Norway to the list of European Nations being negatively effected by the so called Russian sanctions.


Who will be left supplying fuel to Ukraine after Russia pulls out in 2019? They have a poor credit history.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 14, 2017, 12:26:07 AM
https://sputniknews.com/russia/201708131056423090-russia-navy-arctic/

Quote
Northern Fleet ships are sailing for the Arctic under a combat training plan, Captain First Class Vadim Serga, chief of the Northern Fleet press service, told RIA Novosti.

"Today, a unit consisting of several Northern Fleet warships and support vessels sailed from Severomorsk to the Barents Sea under a combat training plan and set course for the eastern Arctic," Serga said.

The unit includes the anti-submarine ship Severomorsk, the landing ships Kondopoga, Alexander Otrakovsky and Georgy Pobedonosets (St. George the Victorious), the rescue tug Pamir and a mooring vessel.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Adam Ash on August 14, 2017, 08:48:42 AM
Who will be left supplying fuel to Ukraine after Russia pulls out in 2019? They have a poor credit history.
Terry
Who?  The USofA conspired to crash the Ukraine, then have recently convinced the nut cases in Kiev to blockade coal from the eastern coal fields as if it was a way to harm the opposition there.  So then, who will the Ukraine get its energy from?  Why!  From the USofA of course, at great expense. 
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-usa-coal-idUSKBN1AG208 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-usa-coal-idUSKBN1AG208)

Ukraine has no money so USofA will lend them the money so increasing the indebtedness of said sorry country and its thrall to USofA.  And the Fascist Yankee puppets in Ukraine will be party to the contracts and will rake a big slice off the top before the poor babushkas get the chance to fill their coal scuttles at prices they cannot afford. 

All very circular and obvious. In the mean time of course Ukraine's ability to earn any foreign income has tanked.  Its a basket case and only good as a cheap training ground for useless yankee tank crews.  etc etc.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Neven on August 16, 2017, 12:35:59 AM
Adam, this is off-topic and more suited to the Russiagate thread, or some such.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 16, 2017, 01:24:29 AM
Adam, this is off-topic and more suited to the Russiagate thread, or some such.


My bad Neven. I read the Hefaistos link and got carried away.


I think the opening of the Northern Route is one of the very few good things that is emerging from  melting Arctic Seas. The NW Passage is fraught with difficulties from the US's insistence that it is an international waterway, to the Canadian Government's lack of built up infrastructure. The Law of the Sea says it's Canadian, the Americans refuse to sign the treaty. Russia ain't the enemy here, they signed early on.


Russian nuclear icebreakers are as close to non-polluting as we're liable to get, and her investment in repair, rescue, and restocking harbors should favor this route until the polar route is open to everyone.
It's sad that she feels the need to protect it militarily, but the times are as they are.


Shipments are moving between Europe and the Orient, and until the High Speed Rail lines are complete this shortcut through the Arctic saves many tons of CO2 - and some money.


Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Adam Ash on August 16, 2017, 05:40:33 AM
Sorry boss! 
In an effort to redeem myself...

'Washington state dealt a blow Tuesday to the last remaining coal export terminal proposed along the West Coast, throwing the viability of the project into question.' 
JAN 4, 2017, 4:39 PM

http://www.hcn.org/issues/48.21/plans-falter-for-west-coast-coal-terminals (http://www.hcn.org/issues/48.21/plans-falter-for-west-coast-coal-terminals)

So it seems that routes to Asia for USA coal are likely to come from the East Coast USA.
 
From the coal docks at Baltimore to Tokyo Bay its..
18,400 km via Panama Canal - plus canal fees and delays and ship size limitations.
16,000 km via Davis Straight and the direct North West Passage route through Bering Straight
18,800 km via the Eastern Sea Route hugging the via coast Karskiey, Vilkitsky, Sannikov, De Long and Bering Straights
So the ESR is only a trivially-longer trip from the East Coast USA to a destination in Asia than via Panama, and it avoids the size and cost limitations of the Panama Canal.
Would definitely make sense to go via the Arctic, with a clear time/distance preference for the North West Passage if there were ice-free water and the local infrastructure for a safe voyage.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 16, 2017, 09:15:56 AM
Adam Ash. No.
Transporting coal via the Northern Sea Route is like adding insult to injury.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 16, 2017, 09:25:34 AM
Terry said :
Quote
The Law of the Sea says it's Canadian

No it doesn't.
Quote
Territorial waters or a territorial sea, as defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, is a belt of coastal waters extending at most 12 nautical miles (22.2 km; 13.8 mi) from the baseline (usually the mean low-water mark) of a coastal state.

Anything outside this 12 miles range is 'international waters' where "no State may validly purport to subject any part of them to its sovereignty".

This is something neither Canada (who claims the entire NWP is theirs but doesn't act if you cross it) nor Russia (charges a fee and shoots at you if you want to cross the Northern Sea Route without their permission, even if you are more than 12 miles from the coast) disputes.

See the contradictions with the Law of the Sea from both Canada and Russia in this ?
And how they differ ?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: ghoti on August 16, 2017, 03:51:06 PM
Territory generally now includes water over continental shelves. Most countries recognize this but notably the US does not because they insist they can send their warships to within 12 miles of any country.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Adam Ash on August 16, 2017, 04:28:47 PM
Adam Ash. No.
Transporting coal via the Northern Sea Route is like adding insult to injury.
Oh yes indeed Rob!  Mankind will not go out with just a whimper!  We will leave a dreadful mess behind as our final convulsions destroy the diminishing supply of goodness with our increasing demands of badness. 
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 17, 2017, 09:31:42 AM
Territory generally now includes water over continental shelves. Most countries recognize this but notably the US does not because they insist they can send their warships to within 12 miles of any country.

No ghoti.
The Laws of the Sea are very clear. There are no claims of 'territory' or 'sovereignty' beyond 12 miles.
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf (http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf)

It kind of makes sense too : In the olden days, pirates or rogue states claimed a certain part of the sea their own, and demanded one paid a fee to pass.

Luckily we have the UN now, and the Laws of the Sea, signed by all major states including the US.

As far as I know, Russia appears to be the only state to charge a fee if you want to pass the international waters along their coast (along the Northern Sea Route), and shoots at you if you don't...
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Pavel on August 17, 2017, 10:15:29 AM
As far as I know, there's 200 miles border outward coast of the economy zone of a country. So according to this map, the one third of Arctic is Russia's economy zone
(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farctic.ru%2Fimages%2F33%2F87%2F338760.png&hash=433c35a0f7b1f71e1f281597cb1f4279)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Richard Rathbone on August 17, 2017, 12:29:00 PM
There's an article on wikipedia about territorial waters. Its rather better sourced and explained than the OT posts here. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 17, 2017, 12:30:50 PM
It is called the 200 mile exclusive economic area, and is about exploitation of the oceans. However, that does not normally apply to freedom of movement of ships outside the 12 mile limit, which is the limit of jurisdiction over shipping - power to arrest, for example. Beyond 12 miles, it is the Law of the Sea.

Russia is therefore using the old fashioned law "Power Gives The Right" to bully submission. And who can stop them ? No-one.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Pavel on August 17, 2017, 12:45:54 PM
Russia is therefore using the old fashioned law "Power Gives The Right" to bully submission. And who can stop them ? No-one.
I'm a russian, and here in Russia I 100500 times per day hear that US is the country using the old fashioned law "Power Gives The Right" to bully submission. And who can stop them ? Only mr Putin lol. Sorry for OT
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: sidd on August 17, 2017, 07:52:11 PM
" ... the Laws of the Sea, signed by all major states including the US."

Note that the USA has signed the 1994  Agreement of Implementation, but has never signed the Convention.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 18, 2017, 01:09:02 AM
" ... the Laws of the Sea, signed by all major states including the US."

Note that the USA has signed the 1994  Agreement of Implementation, but has never signed the Convention.


According to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parties_to_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea


The US has never been a party to, nor a signatory of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea


Sometimes, when atmospheric conditions are just right, the density of the fog propagating from Foggy Bottom's propaganda mills can become so thick, that a skilled mariner can cut a slice, dip it in rum, and subsist on it for some days.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: sidd on August 18, 2017, 05:12:50 AM
My point was that the USA agreed to the 1994 agreement on implementation but not UNCLOS. As in your reference:

"Although the United States helped shape the Convention and its subsequent revisions,[5] and though it signed the 1994 Agreement on Implementation, it has not signed the Convention as it objected to Part XI of the Convention."

What is Part XI ? From
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea

"Part XI of the Convention provides for a regime relating to minerals on the seabed outside any state's territorial waters or EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zones). It establishes an International Seabed Authority (ISA) to authorize seabed exploration and mining and collect and distribute the seabed mining royalty.

The United States objected to the provisions of Part XI of the Convention on several grounds, arguing that the treaty was unfavorable to American economic and security interests. Due to Part XI, the United States refused to ratify the UNCLOS, although it expressed agreement with the remaining provisions of the Convention."

I guess the USA wants to make big holes in the seabed without interference ...

sidd
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 18, 2017, 08:02:36 AM
Thank you sidd for clarifying the US position w.r.t. UNCLOS.
From the Wiki page
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea)
we read :
Quote
The United States objected to Part XI of the Convention on several grounds, arguing that the treaty was unfavorable to American economic and security interests. The U.S. claimed that the provisions of the treaty were not free-market friendly and were designed to favor the economic systems of the Communist states.
Which kind of makes sense, when we look at the picture that Pavel posted.
About 1/3rd of the Arctic now falls within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Russia.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farctic.ru%2Fimages%2F33%2F87%2F338760.png&hash=433c35a0f7b1f71e1f281597cb1f4279)

I find it rather ironic that since UNCLOS was signed in 1994, that the US has obliged by its rules (after all they signed the Agreement of Implementation) even though they did not sign the Convention itself, but Russia seems to be the only state that is still violating UNCLOS law even though they DID sign.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Arctic is a very large place, and the Northern Sea Route is long and still has pockets of ice even in August and September. So it's fair if Russia would charge a fee if ice-breaker assistance is needed and a fee if search-and-rescue is needed. But requiring a permit and fee for anyone sailing its international waters (beyond 12 miles from the coast) clearly does violate UNCLOS.

Incidentally, that permit process and the fees make the Northern Sea Route less attractive for business, which may help in keeping the NSR a bit less popular as a reliable sea route. Other routes, including the NW passage may be more cost effective in the end.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: sidd on August 18, 2017, 08:30:30 PM
UNCLOS disputes include, in addition to the Russian Arctic case, Russia/Ukraine, China/Philippines, Bangladesh/Myanamar and the Chagos Islands dispute (now rejected) to name a few.

The Chagos islanders didn't really have a case in law, but i think if i were in their place i would reach for any straw, as they did. What was done to them is quite revolting.

sidd
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: TerryM on August 18, 2017, 08:43:42 PM
Thank you sidd for clarifying the US position w.r.t. UNCLOS.
From the Wiki page
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_and_the_United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea)
we read :
Quote
The United States objected to Part XI of the Convention on several grounds, arguing that the treaty was unfavorable to American economic and security interests. The U.S. claimed that the provisions of the treaty were not free-market friendly and were designed to favor the economic systems of the Communist states.
Which kind of makes sense, when we look at the picture that Pavel posted.
About 1/3rd of the Arctic now falls within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Russia.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Farctic.ru%2Fimages%2F33%2F87%2F338760.png&hash=433c35a0f7b1f71e1f281597cb1f4279)

I find it rather ironic that since UNCLOS was signed in 1994, that the US has obliged by its rules (after all they signed the Agreement of Implementation) even though they did not sign the Convention itself, but Russia seems to be the only state that is still violating UNCLOS law even though they DID sign.

Now, don't get me wrong. The Arctic is a very large place, and the Northern Sea Route is long and still has pockets of ice even in August and September. So it's fair if Russia would charge a fee if ice-breaker assistance is needed and a fee if search-and-rescue is needed. But requiring a permit and fee for anyone sailing its international waters (beyond 12 miles from the coast) clearly does violate UNCLOS.

Incidentally, that permit process and the fees make the Northern Sea Route less attractive for business, which may help in keeping the NSR a bit less popular as a reliable sea route. Other routes, including the NW passage may be more cost effective in the end.
I don't believe that any 'Communist States' had any stake in the Arctic, even back in 1994.


Canada has been concerned with the pollution of what she considers to be her northern waterways, while the US has always maintained that these are open to all. Another concern in Canada is that the US wants her waters to include water north of the Canadian NWT, rather than the border running straight to the pole as shown on the Russian map.
IIRC the UN very recently ruled that the Sea of Okhotsk is Russian (interior)? waters. Russia has apparently been playing by the rules since signing on early, and having her paperwork and studies turned in on time is beginning to pay dividends.
The reason for Russia's huge share of Arctic waters is just a product of the very large coastline she presents.
Terry
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 19, 2017, 09:31:52 AM
I don't believe that any 'Communist States' had any stake in the Arctic, even back in 1994.
Can you elaborate ? You think Russia didn't want an Exclusive Economic Zone 200 miles off their coast, or did you mean to say that Russia was not a Communist State in 1994 ?

Quote
Canada has been concerned with the pollution of what she considers to be her northern waterways, while the US has always maintained that these are open to all.

ALL waterways, especially the ones more than 12 miles of the coast are open to all.
That's the whole idea behind UNCLOS, and it counts for the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route as well :
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf (http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 19, 2017, 09:55:47 AM

.... a fee if search-and-rescue is needed.

The written and unwritten Law of The Sea requires assistance to be given to anyone in distress on the sea without counting the cost.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 19, 2017, 10:06:24 AM

.... a fee if search-and-rescue is needed.

The written and unwritten Law of The Sea requires assistance to be given to anyone in distress on the sea without counting the cost.

Where exactly in UNCLOS do you see that requirement (especially the part about "without counting the cost") ?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 19, 2017, 10:21:39 AM
Getting back to the sea ice for a moment, with Cesium's assistance "Snow White" has officially cut the red ribbon for the NSR in 2017:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/#Aug-19 (http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/#Aug-19)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 19, 2017, 01:28:05 PM
.... a fee if search-and-rescue is needed.
The written and unwritten Law of The Sea requires assistance to be given to anyone in distress on the sea without counting the cost.
Where exactly in UNCLOS do you see that requirement (especially the part about "without counting the cost") ?

Maybe not in UNCLOS (though I am surprised if there is no reference within it to many other treaties on this).

See - http://www.pacmar.com/story/2015/07/01/maritime-law/rescue-at-sea/357.html (http://www.pacmar.com/story/2015/07/01/maritime-law/rescue-at-sea/357.html)

Extract below.

International Treaties

There are several international treaties to which the United States is a signatory that impose a duty on mariners to give assistance to persons in danger at sea. For example, in 1910, the Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules of Law Relating to Assistance and Salvage At Sea [Brussels Convention] was adopted. It was ratified by the United States and came into force in 1913.

Article 11 of the Brussels Convention provides: “Every master is bound, so far as he can do so without serious danger to his vessel, her crew and passengers, to render assistance to everybody, even though an enemy, found at sea in danger of being lost.” Article 11 also provides that a vessel owner is not liable for the master’s failure to render the required aid.

The International Convention on Salvage [Salvage Convention] was adopted in 1989 and replaced the Brussels Convention. It was ratified by the United States in 1992 and came into force in 1996. Article 10 of the Salvage Convention has three parts. The first part provides: “Every master is bound, so far as he can do so without serious danger to his vessel and persons thereon, to render assistance to any person in danger of being lost at sea.” The second part requires the signatory countries to adopt measures necessary to enforce the first part. The third part exempts a vessel owner from liability if the vessel’s master breaches the duty imposed by the first part. Article 16 provides that the person whose life is saved from danger at sea does not owe compensation to anyone for doing so.

The International Convention for the Safety of Life at Sea [SOLAS] was first adopted in 1914 in response to the Titanic disaster. It has been amended several times since. The version in effect today was adopted in 1974 and entered into force in 1980. Regulation 33 provides: “[t]he master of a ship at sea which is in a position to be able to provide assistance, on receiving information from any source that persons are in distress at sea, is bound to proceed with all speed to their assistance, if possible informing them or the search and rescue service that the ship is doing so.”

None of these treaties provides for a penalty or enforcement mechanism. That aspect is left to the signatory countries.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: jplotinus on August 19, 2017, 09:50:50 PM
I don't believe that any 'Communist States' had any stake in the Arctic, even back in 1994.
Can you elaborate ? You think Russia didn't want an Exclusive Economic Zone 200 miles off their coast, or did you mean to say that Russia was not a Communist State in 1994 ?

Quote
Canada has been concerned with the pollution of what she considers to be her northern waterways, while the US has always maintained that these are open to all.

ALL waterways, especially the ones more than 12 miles of the coast are open to all.
That's the whole idea behind UNCLOS, and it counts for the NW passage and the Northern Sea Route as well :
http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf (http://www.un.org/depts/los/convention_agreements/texts/unclos/unclos_e.pdf)

Canada could, in theory, claim the Northwest Passage an internal waterway. Or, if shot down on that claim, some portions are <12 miles in width, thus giving Oh! Canada a second jurisdictional claim.

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Rob Dekker on August 20, 2017, 03:56:51 AM
Canada could, in theory, claim the Northwest Passage an internal waterway. Or, if shot down on that claim, some portions are <12 miles in width, thus giving Oh! Canada a second jurisdictional claim.

In theory, Canada can claim that (certain routes) of the Northwest Passage are "internal waters".
They would need to file that claim, with supporting evidence, and present it to the UN, which will then make a ruling. Canada has not done that yet, so existing rules apply.

If Canada can identify a route that is less than 24 miles wide (2*12 miles), then YES, they can claim that route as internal waters even under existing law. And they could even charge a fee for passing if they want to. But for any route wider than 24 miles, current laws of the sea (UNCLOS) applies, and these passages would be free for all to pass.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Quantum on August 21, 2017, 11:18:17 PM
This is getting irritating now. I cannot see anything at all on MODIS because of the persistent cloud cover. I really like to use that to confirm exactly the date it opened.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 21, 2017, 11:26:46 PM
This is getting irritating now.

Have you tried Sentinel 1? SAR sees through the clouds :) Albeit not every day :(

http://www.polarview.aq/arctic (http://www.polarview.aq/arctic)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 24, 2017, 11:26:49 PM
According to the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-41037071#):

Quote
A commercial LNG tanker has sailed across the colder, northern route from Europe to Asia without the protection of an ice-breaker for the first time.

The specially-built ship completed the crossing in just six-and-a-half days setting a new record, according to tanker's Russian owners. The 300-metre-long Sovcomflot ship, the Christophe de Margerie, was carrying gas from Norway to South Korea.

The Christophe de Margerie is the world's first and, at present, only ice-breaking LNG carrier. The ship, which features a lightweight steel reinforced hull, is the largest commercial ship to receive Arc7 certification, which means it is capable of travelling through ice up to 2.1m thick. On this trip it was able to keep up an average speed of 14 knots despite sailing through ice that was over one-metre-thick in places.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Peter Ellis on August 25, 2017, 01:31:35 PM
Seems a bit silly to say "without the protection of an ice-breaker" when it IS an ice-breaker!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on November 04, 2017, 01:51:34 AM
 The Christophe de Margerie recently came back through the Northern sea route encountering the ice cover and if unescorted will probably exit Westwards.

Long term plans for the region may involve the use of these expensive icebreaker tankers as shuttles with conventional tankers making final deliveries.

http://www.highnorthnews.com/russias-novatek-to-build-lng-transshipment-hub-at-kamchatka/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on November 10, 2017, 04:19:33 PM
The Russians are going for the LNG biznis big-time.

http://arctic.ru/infrastructure/20171024/684745.html

"24 OCTOBER 2017
Novatek gives Zvezda construction documentation for 15 LNG Arctic tankers

Novatek has supplied Zvezda Shipyards with documentation necessary for the construction of 15 LNG Arctic tankers for Arctic LNG-2, TASS reports, citing Leonid Mikhelson, Novatek's chairman of the board.
"We are currently holding talks through Sovcomflot, and we have provided Zvezda Shipyards with all the documentation necessary for the construction of Arctic ships, which will bring LNG tankers ordered by our carriers to this trans-shipment point," Mikhelson said.
Earlier Mikhelson stated that Novatek is planning to use tankers built in Russia for its LNG projects, TASS writes. Before that, President Vladimir Putin said that oil companies should place more orders at the Zvezda Far East Shipyards, since it has the capacity to complete these orders."

https://www.kallanishenergy.com/2017/10/25/novatek-to-build-reloading-lng-terminal-in-russias-far-east/

Novatek to build reloading LNG terminal in Russia’s Far East
October 25, 2017

Russia’s independent natural gas producer, Novatek, said Monday it entered an agreement with the Kamchatka Territorial Government to build a floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility in Russia’s Far East.

The parties signed a cooperation agreement to create favorable economic and organizational conditions to construct the facility for reloading LNG from Arctic ice-class tankers to conventional LNG tankers on the East Coast of Kamchatka Peninsula, Kallanish Energy learns.

Leonid Mikhelson, Novatek’s chairman, said the project “will optimize the logistics of LNG supplies from the Arctic region, stimulate usage of the Northern Sea Route, and create a new LNG supply hub for Asian-Pacific regional consumers.”
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: litesong on November 23, 2017, 03:31:45 AM
Was watching a documentary on Russian operations through the Northeast Arctic Passage. One Nuclear powered ice breaker conducted a flortilla of other nuclear powered ships (not all military) thru the Passage. However, once the ice breaker conducted the ships through safely, it was off to another set of ships that needed guidance in the other direction. It appeared that such operations are continuous, as long as Arctic heavy sea ice conditions do NOT shift or expand to close off the Passage. 
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 23, 2017, 11:42:12 AM
Was watching a documentary on Russian operations through the Northeast Arctic Passage.

Gotta link?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: A-Team on November 23, 2017, 12:08:01 PM
Quote
capable of traveling through ice up to 2.1m thick. On this trip it was able to keep up an average speed of 14 knots despite sailing through ice that was over one-metre-thick in places.
Pity that these ships don't log ice thickness and properties along the way. Maybe they do but it just doesn't get compared with or integrated into near real-time Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness products. Or maybe most are following in the rubble track of a previous icebreaker and the data is of little interest.

However to the extent they are passaging through the ESAS, it would be incredibly useful to have multibeam hull sonar both subsurface penetrating and methane bubble hotspot monitoring. Historically, a lot of oceanographic and meteorological data arise in this way.

Research vessels are surely determining ice thickness and properties as they go but make a point of not sharing it, I suppose because release would undercut journal publications two years down the road (it wouldn't). I found that especially annoying this August to see twitter scenes of scientists standing out in the rain at the North Pole, complaining about about mushy ice yet not sharing the slightest shred of actual data.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: litesong on November 23, 2017, 05:11:26 PM
Was watching a documentary on Russian operations through the Northeast Arctic Passage.

Gotta link?
No. It was on the TV & I can't even remember which channel now.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: litesong on November 24, 2017, 04:58:01 AM
I think I found the TV show about the nuclear ice breakers on the internet. Have fun watching lots of nuke ships(even if they are russian):
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=russian+nuclear+ice+breaker+flotilla&view=detail&mid=C62E8868FC8F955D3647C62E8868FC8F955D3647&FORM=VIRE
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on November 24, 2017, 09:42:21 AM
....Pity that these ships don't log ice thickness and properties along the way. Maybe they do but it just doesn't get compared with or integrated into near real-time Arctic Ocean sea ice thickness products. Or maybe most are following in the rubble track of a previous icebreaker and the data is of little interest.


Most do not send continuous navigation data either which is understandable but it would nice to occasionally see Mother Nature red in tooth and claw via a ship webcam and watch these magnificent vessels ploughing along in savage conditions at a lot less than nine below zero. :)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on November 24, 2017, 11:04:27 AM
I think I found the TV show about the nuclear ice breakers

Thanks! If this works:

http://youtu.be/6ueoZX774fs
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on November 24, 2017, 03:17:02 PM
I found this article on the very large amounts of money going into the Northern Sea Route, and found this:-

https://www.globalresearch.ca/huge-implications-of-russias-northern-sea-route-an-alternative-to-the-suez-canal/5619445

I believe the data on the big investments going into Siberia and the offshore EEZ, not just LNG by any means. Read and be alarmed. See extracts below.
I was also taken aback by the cold war rhetoric popping up in the article, so I thought " who/what are https://www.globalresearch.ca/ ?". This is what they say they are:-

"The Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) is an independent research and media organization based in Montreal.  The CRG is a registered non-profit organization in the province of Quebec, Canada.".

THE IMAGE BELOW IS A SCREENSHOT OF PART OF THEIR FRONT PAGE - I leave you to judge their independence.

ARTICLE EXTRACTS

"The Yamal LNG Terminal is a $27 billion project whose lead owner is Russia’s Novatek. When the US Treasury financial warfare targeted Novatek and the Yamal project in 2014 following the Crimea referendum to join the Russian Federation, China lenders stepped in to provide $12 billion to complete the project after China’s state oil company, CNPC bought a 20% interest in the Yamal LNG Terminal project. The China Silk Road Fund holds another 9.9% and France’s Total 20% with Novatek having 50.1%.

"Taking all into account what is very clear is that Russia is developing cutting-edge technology and infrastructure in some of the most extreme climate conditions in the world, in building its economy new, and that it is successfully doing so in collaboration with China, South Korea and even to an extent with Japan, contrary to the hopes of Washington war-addicted neoconservatives and their patrons in the US military industrial complex."

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook” where this article was originally published.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on December 14, 2017, 01:53:56 PM
Christophe de Margerie exits the Northern seas with the first cargo of LNG loaded at Sabetta and is now in good trim passing Tromso at a steady 16 knots bound for Europe.


http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/mmsi:212611000/shipid:4327709/vessel:CHRIS.%20DE%20MARGERIE
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on December 14, 2017, 10:13:19 PM
Russia opens lng terminal in Siberia despite US sanctions - China put up the loot.
More facilities to come

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-14/russia-dreams-big-as-u-s-fails-to-kill-27-billion-gas-project

"Building the $27 billion Yamal liquefied natural gas project meant shipping more than 5 million tons of materials to construct a forest of concrete and steel 600 kilometers north of the Arctic circle, where temperatures can drop to -50 degrees celsius and the sun disappears for two months straight.

Yet those challenges weren’t as tough as the U.S. sanctions imposed in 2014, forcing a complete refinancing just as construction was about to start. Jacques de Boisseson, head of the Moscow office of French energy giant Total SA, which has a 20 percent stake in Yamal LNG, said there were "various moments" when he thought the project may never happen."
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: charles_oil on January 27, 2018, 09:33:55 AM

The Chinese are joining the party with an Arctic version of the Silk Road ...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-arctic/china-unveils-vision-for-polar-silk-road-across-arctic-idUSKBN1FF0J8


Oh dear .....
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sleepy on January 27, 2018, 12:45:45 PM
Thanks charles.

The road to hell.
http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm (http://english.gov.cn/archive/white_paper/2018/01/26/content_281476026660336.htm)
A lot of bs in there, especially after reading this section:
Quote
(2) Participating in the exploration for and exploitation of oil, gas, mineral and other non-living resources

China respects the sovereign rights of Arctic States over oil, gas and mineral resources in the areas subject to their jurisdiction in accordance with international law, and respects the interests and concerns of residents in the region. It requires its enterprises to observe the laws of the relevant States and conduct risk assessments for resource exploration, and encourages them to participate in the exploitation of oil, gas and mineral resources in the Arctic, through cooperation in various forms and on the condition of properly protecting the eco-environment of the Arctic.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on January 27, 2018, 04:26:28 PM

The Chinese are joining the party with an Arctic version of the Silk Road ...


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-arctic/china-unveils-vision-for-polar-silk-road-across-arctic-idUSKBN1FF0J8


Oh dear .....

Well it's pretty certain carriers get through northernsea route in summer. They are still in Paris agreement so one way of diminishing emmissions would be using this.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on January 27, 2018, 04:45:02 PM
Russia and China are partners big-time in developing the Arctic as I posted earlier

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg134682.html#msg134682

and a fleet of LNG carriers (one already operating) is being built to use the Northern Sea Route all year round. (with assistance from Russia's 40+ ice-breakers?)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 27, 2018, 07:45:25 PM
The Chinese are joining the party with an Arctic version of the Silk Road ...

Thanks Charles and Sleepy for the heads up. That led me to this article:

https://www.asiapacific.ca/blog/chinas-belt-and-road-strides-arctic-few-notice

(https://www.asiapacific.ca/sites/default/files/gettyimages-888353262_button.jpg)

and this "dramatic video":

http://youtu.be/jovIfvlE4fI
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on January 27, 2018, 11:19:20 PM
The Christophe de Margerie, Boris Vilkitsky and Fedor Litke  are all shipping actively now visiting Rotterdam, Thamesport (Isle of Grain), Milford Haven, Dunkerke and Montoir.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5221235/Russia-sparks-fury-trolling-UK-gas-shipment.html

British government denied Russian gas was being used by energy companies in the UK though one wonders about the the technicalities of storage facilities for transfer purposes and whether Russian LNG is subtely different from anyone elses LNG. Do the Brits have gas sniffers like their renowned  tea tasters? :)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: morganism on February 05, 2018, 09:55:08 PM
Teekay’s New Icebreaking LNG Carrier ‘Eduard Toll’ Makes Historic Northern Sea Route Passage February 1, 2018

http://gcaptain.com/photos-teekays-new-icebreaking-lng-carrier-eduard-toll-completes-northern-sea-route-passage/

"Over the New Year, the vessel made history as it underwent the latest seasonal independent passage by a merchant ship on the Northern Sea Route.

At times during the trip, the unescorted Eduard Toll broke ice 1.8 meters thick at speeds of five knots astern, arriving at Sabetta ahead of schedule sometime in early January.


Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on February 06, 2018, 01:36:08 AM
You can have it in any colour as long as it's blue!


Such a passage is indicative of the ice thickness. One imagines that there must be quite precise mapping of the ice to avoid thicker sections close to the ice breaker's rating.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: psymmo7 on February 06, 2018, 01:07:02 PM
Why 5 knots astern? Does this mean it was going backwards? Or is this a nautical term I have misunderstood?

Teekay’s New Icebreaking LNG Carrier ‘Eduard Toll’ Makes Historic Northern Sea Route Passage February 1, 2018

http://gcaptain.com/photos-teekays-new-icebreaking-lng-carrier-eduard-toll-completes-northern-sea-route-passage/

"Over the New Year, the vessel made history as it underwent the latest seasonal independent passage by a merchant ship on the Northern Sea Route.

At times during the trip, the unescorted Eduard Toll broke ice 1.8 meters thick at speeds of five knots astern, arriving at Sabetta ahead of schedule sometime in early January.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sebastian Jones on February 06, 2018, 06:39:35 PM
Why 5 knots astern? Does this mean it was going backwards? Or is this a nautical term I have misunderstood?
It is not intuitive that these vessels break ice going astern!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_acting_ship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_acting_ship)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: magnamentis on February 06, 2018, 09:32:48 PM
some modern ice breakers use their propellers to crash the ice depending on thickness and conditions. since your link underlines that why is it not intuitive it's a matter of fact and makes totally sense which is why those vessels exist in the first place.

with propellers i mean they use kind of POD-Systems, not common propellers attached to a rigid drive shaft.

should i have missed the point let me know this is what crossed my mind while reading ;)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on February 06, 2018, 09:43:34 PM
Loads of posts about these LNG tanker icebreakers on this thread starting back last August, e.g.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg124035/topicseen.html#msg124035

If you use the forum's search facility and just enter christophe (the1st operational one) or lng tankers  it will also send you to lots of posts about it.

There will be many of these in 5 years time.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: psymmo7 on February 06, 2018, 09:47:00 PM
Why 5 knots astern? Does this mean it was going backwards? Or is this a nautical term I have misunderstood?
It is not intuitive that these vessels break ice going astern!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_acting_ship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double_acting_ship)
Thanks for the wiki-link. It explains a lot.
So double-acting ships only go astern in a forward direction! Must be quite tricky turning in thick ice.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Alex Bellin on February 19, 2018, 08:59:58 PM
In its resent article CNBC called Russian Federation the clear leader in Arctic infrastructure development.
As it was stated, with more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia has long sought economic and military dominance in this part of the world. The world’s largest country has moved to reopen some abandoned Soviet-era military installations and place new facilities and airfields in its northern territory, while also establishing a string of seaports along its northern coastline. With $300 billion in potential projects either completed, in motion or proposed, Russia is the clear leader in Arctic infrastructure development.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Tor Bejnar on February 19, 2018, 09:37:21 PM
A little off-topic, but...
Quote
with more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia
I wonder if Russia really does have more above-the-Arctic-Circle coast line than Canada (with it CAA); islands make for lots of coastline!  Looking at a map, Russia probably does - it has lots of Arctic islands, too.  But does it have more than half of all the Arctic coastline?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on February 19, 2018, 11:14:51 PM
A little off-topic, but...
Quote
with more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia
I wonder if Russia really does have more above-the-Arctic-Circle coast line than Canada (with it CAA); islands make for lots of coastline!  Looking at a map, Russia probably does - it has lots of Arctic islands, too.  But does it have more than half of all the Arctic coastline?

I plump for Canada all those islands - see map below. But does it matter? The map says no - Russia has got the sea route that matters. Link is to article asking the question - "Who owns the Arctic ?"
But with Russia Force Majeure rules, OK ?

https://geology.com/articles/who-owns-the-arctic.shtml
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Alex Bellin on February 20, 2018, 09:24:47 PM
Canada (with it CAA); islands make for lots of coastline!
Quote
with more than half of all Arctic coastline along its northern shores, Russia
There are several Russian marine routes.  First - from Murmansk to the Bering Strait is 3,074 nautical miles; and the Northern Sea Route from Kara Gate to the Bering Strait is 2,551 nautical miles. The Dudinka to Murmansk marine route that is maintained yearround is 1,343 nautical miles, while it is approximately 500 nautical miles between the offshore region of the Pechora Sea (site of new oil terminals) in the southeast corner of the Barents Sea and Murmansk. Compared with the Canadian Arctic, the Russian maritime Arctic has many more viable ports located along the length of the NSR. Primary NSR ports from west to east include: Amderma, Dikson, Yamburg (Ob’ Gulf), Dudinka (north Yenisei River), Igarka (south Yenisei River), Khatanga (Khatanga River on the Laptev Sea), Tiksi (Tiksi Gulf near the Lena River), Zeleny Mys (Kolyma River) and Pevek. Probably that's why Russia is called as the leader in the Arctic. http://www.arctis-search.com/The+Russian+Maritime+Arctic+and+Northern+Sea+Route
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Mr.Far on February 21, 2018, 12:13:28 PM
A little off-topic, but...
Quote
Canada (with it CAA); islands make for lots of coastline!

Guys, what 'cause of soe personal d...-measuring contest? Though I’m not a drumbeater for Russia, but it should be confessed the fact that Moscow is getting more and more involved and interested in the Arctic. Even much more that other countries (except rather non-Arctic China).

As for Canucks few years ago I ran across the article by Canadian stated that Canada’s frigid Arctic is definitely something to get hot and bothered about. The main idea was - Canada must stop lie itself and others that it needs the North… Well, something like that…

If find I’ll throw link.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Mr.Far on February 21, 2018, 12:46:28 PM
Here you go! http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-north-and-the-great-canadian-lie/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on February 21, 2018, 01:09:15 PM
Here you go! http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-north-and-the-great-canadian-lie/

Good for the Arctic, though not for the people living there. Neglect is a super method of looking after the environment. Now the oil and gas industry in Alaska is going down the tubes, we can look forward to more neglect there as well.

Pity about Russia going hell-for-leather in developing its side.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: oren on February 21, 2018, 02:41:01 PM
Here you go! http://www.macleans.ca/politics/the-north-and-the-great-canadian-lie/
Thank you. An interesting read. I am sure the fish and the land are quite happy with the current state of affairs.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: BenB on March 01, 2018, 09:33:58 AM
Teekay have a timelapse of the first part of the Eduar Toll's voyage through the Arctic on their website:

http://teekay.com/blog/2018/02/09/timelapse-eduard-toll-transiting-northern-sea-route/ (http://teekay.com/blog/2018/02/09/timelapse-eduard-toll-transiting-northern-sea-route/)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sleepy on March 20, 2018, 07:28:58 AM
China building Arctic cruise ship for 'Polar Silk Road'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-arctic/china-building-arctic-cruise-ship-for-polar-silk-road-idUSKCN1GT08N (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-arctic/china-building-arctic-cruise-ship-for-polar-silk-road-idUSKCN1GT08N)
Quote
China has begun building its first polar expedition cruise ship, state news agency Xinhua reported Saturday, as the country looks to shipping lanes opened up by global warming to extend President Xi Jinping’s Belt and Road initiative to the Arctic.

Construction of the 104.4-meter vessel, equipped with an advanced electric propulsion and control system for navigating sea ice, was expected to be completed by August 2019, Xinhua reported.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2018, 01:29:52 PM
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2018/05/new-arctic-transshipment-hub-built-former-submarine-base

Quote
New Arctic transshipment hub is built in former submarine base
The base, which previously housed 12 submarines from the powerful Pacific Fleet, will soon become terminal for Novatek’s Arctic LNG.


The Russian natural gas company now confirms that the projected transshipment hub will be located in Bechevinka, the abandoned Navy compound in Kamchatka. It will cost up to 1,5 billion and have a capacity of up to 20 million tons of LNG per year, Novatek Deputy Head Aleksandr Fridman told Interfax.

It will be a crucial component in Novatek’s out-shipment scheme for LNG produced in the Arctic. The energy company late last year started production of liquified natural gas in the Yamal LNG project and is aiming for a major expansion into several more Arctic LNG projects. A key share of the liquified gas is aimed at the Asian market and Novatek and partners are building a big fleet of ice-class carriers able to autonomously sail through Arctic waters.

In Bechevinka, the powerful specialised tankers will unload the LNG, whereupon conventional carriers will bring it further to the markets.

According to Interfax, preparations for the construction of the new terminal is already ongoing.

And all about Заброшенный город подводников (Бечевинка, Камчатка) at

https://omsk.com/viewtopic.php?t=314920

At least the terminal is not in the Arctic Ocean

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Ninebelowzero on May 18, 2018, 04:58:04 PM
.....At least the terminal is not in the Arctic Ocean


From an ecologically point of view that's sound but the intention when conditions allow is probably to shuttle LNG East to it and max out storage capacity before the Winter sets in and at 19 knots the new fleet will make very fast passage most of the time. Conditions off Kamchatka would allow normal tankers to make final deliveries.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on May 18, 2018, 06:31:09 PM
.....At least the terminal is not in the Arctic Ocean


From an ecologically point of view that's sound but the intention when conditions allow is probably to shuttle LNG East to it and max out storage capacity before the Winter sets in and at 19 knots the new fleet will make very fast passage most of the time. Conditions off Kamchatka would allow normal tankers to make final deliveries.
The LNG fleet being built with a lot of financial and other help from China is designed to shift the gas all year round. Loads of posts about it on postings going back to last summer on this thread, e.g.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,854.msg123499.html#msg123499
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 13, 2018, 10:25:58 AM
The Northern Sea Route is open - if you are heading East from the Yamal LNG plant in an icebreaking LNG carrier.

Vladimir Rusanov Completes First Northern Sea Route Transit
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/vladimir-rusanov-completes-first-northern-sea-route-transit#gs.JDGYxl0

and a longer read (if you really want to be depressed)
https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/the-future-of-the-arctic-economy#gs.Wa=59Uc
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: magnamentis on July 24, 2018, 03:49:59 PM
if i had a boat and were waiting i'd start my journey now. looks very much navigable to me.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 07, 2018, 10:37:44 PM
The Russian Sea Route is open, or is it not ( a little tongue of ice in the ESS) ?

Mind you, I bet the Russians are moving ships already. I wonder how much more shipping than last year.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: magnamentis on August 07, 2018, 11:15:43 PM
The Russian Sea Route is open, or is it not ( a little tongue of ice in the ESS) ?

Mind you, I bet the Russians are moving ships already. I wonder how much more shipping than last year.

the gap to land could be well around 100km, hence it should be navigable ?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 08, 2018, 08:48:39 AM
Mind you, I bet the Russians are moving ships already. I wonder how much more shipping than last year.

There was this news (http://nsra.ru/en/glavnaya/novosti/n22.html) in slightly strange English from the NSRA:

Quote
The vessel Tian Hui flying the flag China makes the first transit flight to water areas of NSR from the West (Emden port, Germany) on the East (Kusniro port, Japan), on July 21 the vessel has entered the water area through the cape of Desire.

However the official list is currently empty?

http://nsra.ru/en/operativnaya_informatsiya/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp.html

As always at this time of year, there's still a few floes floating around in the Vilkitsky Strait vicinity. Nothing an "intrepid little yacht"couldn't handle though?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2017/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2017/

Is it time for the 2018 version yet?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: oren on August 08, 2018, 11:06:18 AM
There was this news (http://nsra.ru/en/glavnaya/novosti/n22.html) in slightly strange English from the NSRA:

Quote
The vessel Tian Hui flying the flag China makes the first transit flight to water areas of NSR from the West (Emden port, Germany) on the East (Kusniro port, Japan), on July 21 the vessel has entered the water area through the cape of Desire.
For anyone wondering (like me), Cape Desire (Mys Zhelaniya) is the northernmost point of Novaya Zemlya, at the entrance to the Kara Sea.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: pikaia on August 23, 2018, 11:44:16 AM
A Danish vessel setting sail from Vladivostok this week is set to become the first container ship to tackle the Arctic sea route north of Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45271766
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 23, 2018, 07:35:56 PM
A Danish vessel setting sail from Vladivostok this week is set to become the first container ship to tackle the Arctic sea route north of Russia.

Quote
The Venta Maersk, owned by Maersk Line, and carrying 3,600 containers, hopes to reach St Petersburg by late September.

That could be up to 14 days faster than the southern route via the Suez Canal.

Maersk will collect data on the Northern Sea Route to see if the melting of Arctic sea ice has made the passage economically viable.

Maersk said: "The trial passage will enable us to explore the operational feasibility of container shipping through the Northern Sea Route and to collect data."

The Venta Maersk, designed as a new "ice-class" container ship, will carry frozen fish and other refrigerated and general cargo.

The route stretches from the Bering Strait in the east between Russia and Alaska to Norway in the west.

However, Maersk added: "Currently, we do not see the Northern Sea Route as a commercial alternative to our existing network, which is defined by our customers' demand, trading patterns and population centres."

She has set sail, but is still not a million miles (https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5568438/mmsi:219115000/imo:9775763/vessel:VENTA_MAERSK) from Vladivostok:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 23, 2018, 11:50:51 PM
The Russians are coming... even more bigly.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/icebreaker-gap-how-russia-planning-build-more-icebreakers-project-power-arctic-29102

The "Icebreaker Gap": How Russia is Planning to Build more Icebreakers to Project Power in the Arctic
Quote
Recently, the state of the U.S. Coast Guard’s icebreaker fleet has been making waves in Washington, DC. Republlcans have suggested diverting funding from the Coast Guard’s initiative to acquire a new heavy icebreaker to the border wall.

This comes at a time where Russia and China are investing more and more money into the Arctic capabilities of their militaries, including icebreakers. But what is Russia’s overall Arctic strategy? How do icebreakers fit into that picture and enable them to project power into the Arctic, and what do they stand to gain?

The current state of the relative size of icebreaker fleets is best summed up in one diagram (see below) put out by the U.S. Coast Guard Office of Waterways and Ocean Policy. There are some key points to be seen here. Only the United States and Russia operate “heavy” icebreakers, indicated in black. Those icebreakers have the highest amount of power available to them, allowing them to operate in the thickest ice sheets. Of those heavy icebreakers, America only has one operational. Russia, on the other hand, has two operational with four more in refit. Once refits are complete, Russian heavy icebreakers will outnumber the American ones 3:1, providing Russia with better capability to run operations in heavy ice packs.

America’s only heavy icebreaker, the USCGC Polar Star- the USCGC Polar Star first entered service in the 1970s. Russia’s fleet of heavy icebreakers are significantly younger than the American ships, entering service in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Russia also fields a far larger fleet of light and medium icebreakers, although these cannot handle thicker ice and mostly are used to keep trading lanes open to northern ports such as Arkhangelsk.
In addition to its already formidable fleet, Russia is planning to build some even bigger icebreakers. The “Leader”-class (LK-110Ya/Pr. 10510) of icebreakers is expected to weigh somewhere around 71,000 tons, which would make it by far the heaviest icebreaker in the world. To compare, the USCGC Polar Star weighs only around 10,000 tons.
The “Leader” would be powered by 110 MW nuclear power plant (hence the 110 in the designation) and be charged with being one of many ships keeping the North Sea route open.

While the “Leader” class is still only on paper at the moment, Russia is nearly done with the “Arktika”-class (LK-60Ya/Pr. 22220) of heavy nuclear icebreakers. These ships also are massive, weighing in at around 33,000 tons. The new Arktika-class ships are expected to undergo sea trials at the end of 2019 .

Link to diagram
https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/DCO%20Documents/Office%20of%20Waterways%20and%20Ocean%20Policy/20170501%20major%20icebreaker%20chart.pdf?ver=2017-06-08-091723-907
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: oren on August 24, 2018, 08:48:11 AM
That's a great diagram.
In all honesty, the Russians need way more icebreakers than anyone else, due to their very long arctic coast with actual ports and towns that need to be supplied by sea. But certainly the US and Canada should build more, both for research purposes, arctic operations, and strategic considerations.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 25, 2018, 02:25:50 PM
I don't know about you, but I reckon there'll be room for Venta Maersk to squeeze through the ESS without testing her Ice Class credentials?

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2018/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 26, 2018, 06:28:26 PM
The cruise ship Bremen en route from Tromso to Nome is just passing the New Siberian Islands with no sign of ice on their webcam for the last couple of days, currently at 74.477548° N 140.068423° E

(https://static.hl-cruises.com/fileadmin/_processed_/7/7/csm_f_2018_08_260510_1e6fbf5347.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 27, 2018, 01:17:31 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E
(https://static.hl-cruises.com/fileadmin/_processed_/c/8/csm_f_2018_08_271130_fefbfa8017.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on August 27, 2018, 04:39:44 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E

By 12:50 CEST she was out of the ice again:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2018/#comment-245342

Current position 73.149865° N, 147.921457° E, if you can believe all those decimal places.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Pmt111500 on August 27, 2018, 07:30:33 PM
That ice looks very uneven on surface, my guess is this has been under a very heavy snowload, usually you can't see such ice on Baltic, but I'm not very experienced on that, mostly seen coastal ice.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 27, 2018, 07:45:33 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E

By 12:50 CEST she was out of the ice again:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2018/08/the-northern-sea-route-in-2018/#comment-245342

Current position 73.149865° N, 147.921457° E, if you can believe all those decimal places.
Yes now at 72.863807° N 149.126623° E and still ice free.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: mitch on August 27, 2018, 08:49:10 PM
At 72°N, there are only 34 km per degree of longitude, so many of those decimals are superfluous. The 6th decimal place is roughly 3.4 cm vs 11 cm in the latitude direction.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2018, 09:08:48 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E

The Bremen must have been looking for that ice - the only patch in that area?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 27, 2018, 09:44:48 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E

The Bremen must have been looking for that ice - the only patch in that area?

Probably wanted to make it interesting for the clients, they'd hardly seen any ice so far!  You'd expect they'll encounter some more in the next day or so.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Tor Bejnar on August 27, 2018, 10:10:38 PM
Quote
now at 72.863807° N 149.126623° E
Quote
At 72°N, there are only 34 km per degree of longitude, so many of those decimals are superfluous. The 6th decimal place is roughly 3.4 cm vs 11 cm in the latitude direction.
That is where the ship's bridge is (more specifically, where the GPS instrument is).  The rest of the ship is elsewhere (i.e., at different decimal places).  [or so I learned from an old Coast Guard sailor]
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 27, 2018, 10:14:12 PM
Quote
now at 72.863807° N 149.126623° E
Quote
At 72°N, there are only 34 km per degree of longitude, so many of those decimals are superfluous. The 6th decimal place is roughly 3.4 cm vs 11 cm in the latitude direction.
That is where the ship's bridge is (more specifically, where the GPS instrument is).  The rest of the ship is elsewhere (i.e., at different decimal places).  [or so I learned from an old Coast Guard sailor]
It is to be hoped elsewhere is very close to the bridge
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Dharma Rupa on August 27, 2018, 11:55:44 PM
Quote
now at 72.863807° N 149.126623° E
Quote
At 72°N, there are only 34 km per degree of longitude, so many of those decimals are superfluous. The 6th decimal place is roughly 3.4 cm vs 11 cm in the latitude direction.
That is where the ship's bridge is (more specifically, where the GPS instrument is).  The rest of the ship is elsewhere (i.e., at different decimal places).  [or so I learned from an old Coast Guard sailor]
It is to be hoped elsewhere is very close to the bridge

But does not get closer.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 30, 2018, 02:30:03 PM
The Bremen encountered sea ice for the first time today at 73.868038° N 148.019587° E

The Bremen must have been looking for that ice - the only patch in that area?

Probably wanted to make it interesting for the clients, they'd hardly seen any ice so far!  You'd expect they'll encounter some more in the next day or so.

And they've managed to avoid ice since then apart from a few occasional patches and are now closing in on Wrangel and if the maps are to believed unlikely to encounter more ice.
This is the thickest patch (pretty much clear water 30 mins later):
(https://static.hl-cruises.com/fileadmin/_processed_/9/0/csm_f_2018_08_280130_ded0f6ae7a.jpg)

Now at 70.485512° N 173.707297° E
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on August 30, 2018, 09:19:49 PM
"I joined the cruise ship,
to see the ice,
and what did I see,
I saw the sea"
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 31, 2018, 01:19:29 AM
Judging by their position the Bremen has reached Wrangell Island.

Here's the view from the Bremen.
(https://static.hl-cruises.com/fileadmin/_processed_/7/5/csm_f_2018_08_310140_5b2774613c.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 03:24:23 PM
Quote
Northern Sea Route Traffic jumps more than 80 percent as COSCO of China completes five transits with more on the way. Shipping giant Maersk also active on route as well as a number of cruise ships.

http://www.highnorthnews.com/record-traffic-on-northern-sea-route-as-cosco-completes-five-transits/

Quote
Shipping traffic along Russia’s Northern Sea Route reached new heights during the first eight months of 2018 as cargo volume increased by more than 80 percent compared to the same period last year, Russian media outlets report. The route is, at least during the short summer season, increasingly resembling a traditional shipping lane home to not only natural gas and oil tankers, but also general cargo vessels, cruise ships and, for the first-time ever, container vessels.

China’s shipping giant COSCO, as in previous years, has been very active on Northern Sea Route (NSR), conducting a record-equalling five transits, shipping traffic data indicates. Hapag-Lloyd’s MS Bremen, is sailing along the route with with nearly 200 guests and crew, while Danish company Maersk is sending the first-ever container ship through the Arctic.

During the first half of 2018 five purpose-built ice-class LNG carriers transported 34 loads of natural gas, around 2.5 million tons, to markets in Europe.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on September 04, 2018, 07:44:39 PM
From the Independent Barents Observer:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/2018/09/russia-builds-another-military-base-east-arctic

Quote
As the Northern Fleet unfolds a series of exercises in Russian east Arctic waters, Head Commander Nikolay

According to Yevmenov, a new base located near the town of Tiksi will stand ready for operations already within six months. It will include a total of 11 buildings, all of which will be interconnected with roof-covered passages. The buildings will house living quarters for soldiers, an administrative unit, a diesel-fueled power station, water and fuel storage facilities, a cantina, garages and more, the Northern Fleet informs (https://structure.mil.ru/structure/okruga/north/news/more.htm?id=12192966@egNews).
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: litesong on September 06, 2018, 12:06:07 AM
At 72°N, there are only 34 km per degree of longitude, so many of those decimals are superfluous.
B-bb-bbbutt, ya figger't et out. Howdy superfluous ist das?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: pikaia on September 10, 2018, 10:26:34 PM
"A convoy of Chinese cargo ships, with at least two carrying turbine blades and other equipment for the wind power industry, has traveled via the Northern Sea Route from Asia to Europe across the Arctic Ocean."

https://e360.yale.edu/digest/five-chinese-ships-led-by-russian-icebreakers-make-arctic-transit?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+YaleEnvironment360+%28Yale+Environment+360%29
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on September 11, 2018, 04:59:35 PM
Venta Maersk passing through the New Siberian Islands at a steady 9 knots, no ice there when the Bremen went through about two weeks ago.
Last reported at 2018-Sep-11 00:00 UTC.
Position N 74°12' E 146°12'.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: pikaia on September 16, 2018, 01:22:33 PM
Venta Maersk has almost completed her journey, but needed help from ice-breakers.

http://www.highnorthnews.com/maersk-container-ship-transits-arctic-ocean-with-icebreaker-escort/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Mr.Far on September 17, 2018, 03:43:32 PM
I anticipate that the Northern Sea Route will soon be open all year round, regardless of the weather conditions and etc. It was the only thought that occurred to me when I came across an article (https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2163719/china-and-russia-want-develop-arctic-energy-resources) stating that such powerful countries as China and Russia work closely together to develop the Arctic. Contrary to popular opinion, the report of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2163719/china-and-russia-want-develop-arctic-energy-resources) mentioned in the article (https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/asia/article/2163719/china-and-russia-want-develop-arctic-energy-resources) proves that Moscow is not only open to foreign cooperation, but is also ready to increase it. And it is very well illustrated by the “impressive track record of cooperation between China and Russia on the Yamal LNG project”.

And if now I’m probably overestimating the scale of warming of relations between these two countries, then the Western countries definitely underestimate the scale of non-cooperation with Russia on Arctic issues, which may further put them at a disadvantage in terms of access to the Northern Sea Route. And what do you think?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on September 17, 2018, 11:38:19 PM
Mr. Far,

Russia rules mineral resources up to 200 miles from their coast.
Russia rules the sea only up to 12 miles from their coast, in theory.

But with their rapidly expanding fleet of ice-breakers (40+ and some enormous nuclear-powered jobs in the works), their development of specialised military hardware for Arctic use, new Arctic military bases, the bet on fossil fuel and other minerals from the Arctic for economic survival, theory may give way to force.

ps: China financed a large lump of the Yamal developments to fill the gap when US sanctions blocked western financial institutions from providing the loot.

This is Geo-Politics - The Great Game, being played out in the Arctic. Peace has little to do with it. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute is, in my opinion, being naive.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: sidd on September 18, 2018, 05:52:15 AM
I had dinner last night with a friend who does ocean cores in the arctic. I am informed that the chinese have a icebreaker (originally bought from ukraine for scrap) converted into a scientific platform. And that they are building a new one, probably for commercial use.

sidd
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Mr.Far on September 18, 2018, 04:04:25 PM
I guess that cooperation between countries is precisely the thing that has much to do with geopolitics or The Great Game, whatever you call it. And the Chinese… they know it. They always know exactly or what they do. That’s why they have an expanding economy.

And as for their icebreakers, either converted or built, they are, again, the part of China’s far-sighted policy… or at least their effort to remain the part of The Great Game.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Pavel on September 20, 2018, 03:48:26 PM


Russia rules the sea only up to 12 miles from their coast, in theory.

Well, in theory Alaska also should be a russian region, not the state Of USA. I know the opinion that Alaska was not actually sold by Russia, but leased for 99 years in 1867, but the USSR for certain political reasons did not require it back. Some historians also argue that Russia did not receive gold that drowned with the Orkney barge that carried it during the storm. But I have no idea is it true or "The Great game"
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: jacksmith4tx on September 20, 2018, 04:59:01 PM
Quote
2018/9/19
A commercial container ship has for the first time successfully navigated the Northern Sea Route of the Arctic Ocean, a route made possible by melting sea ice caused by global warming.

With help from Russia's most powerful nuclear icebreaker, it followed the Northern Sea Route up through the Bering Strait between Russia and Alaska, before travelling along Russia’s north coast and into the Norwegian Sea.

Maersk Line, the world’s biggest container shipping company, told The Independent its ship, Venta Maersk, was expected to reach its final destination of St Petersburg next week.

The new ice-class 42,000 ton vessel, carrying Russian fish and South Korea electronics, left Vladivostok, in the far east of Russia, on the 23 August.

They hide the punch line at the end:
Quote
“Currently, we do not see the Northern Sea Route as a commercial alternative to our existing network.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/maersk-container-ship-arctic-ocean-northern-sea-route-venta-global-warming-a8543431.html
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: SteveMDFP on September 20, 2018, 05:08:34 PM


Russia rules the sea only up to 12 miles from their coast, in theory.

Well, in theory Alaska also should be a russian region, not the state Of USA. I know the opinion that Alaska was not actually sold by Russia, but leased for 99 years in 1867, but the USSR for certain political reasons did not require it back. Some historians also argue that Russia did not receive gold that drowned with the Orkney barge that carried it during the storm. But I have no idea is it true or "The Great game"

Seems that the sale was a sale, not a lease.  And the gold was used to build railroads in Russia:

150 Years After Sale of Alaska, Some Russians Have Second Thoughts
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/europe/alaska-russia-sale-150.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/30/world/europe/alaska-russia-sale-150.html)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: charles_oil on October 13, 2018, 05:27:31 PM
Lengthy article and some stunning images of the Venta Maesk route this summer:


https://gcaptain.com/photos-venta-maersks-passage-of-the-northern-sea-route/
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on October 30, 2018, 04:29:10 PM
According to (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2018/10/aircraft-carrier-damaged-dry-dock-sinks) the (Independent) Barents Observer:

Quote
One person is reported dead and Russia’s only aircraft carrier has been damaged as floating dry dock sinks into the waters of the Kola Bay.

It was early morning Tuesday in Roslyakovo, near Murmansk, when Russia’s biggest floating dry dock experienced serious technical problems reportedly triggered by a power outage.

The accident started as aircraft carrier «Admiral Kuznetsov» was to be taken out of the dock and into the nearby waters, Interfax reports. The vessel was damaged as a large crane fell over the ship deck, sources tell the news agency.

There has not come any official comments from Zvezdochka, the company that operates yard No 82 in Roslyakovo. However, regional Governor Marina Kovtun has issued a video report about the incident.

«It is hard to say what is the reason for the accident,» Kovtun says in the comment distributed on Twitter. «There are rescue services on site and divers in the water, and also a group from the Northern Fleet as well as an investigative team»

The aircraft carrier has now been towed to the nearby Sevmorput Yard No 35, yard press spokesman Yevgeny Gladyshev told Interfax. He makes clear that the power outage was what caused the accident.

There has in recent days been several cases of power outage all over the region, including in the cities of Severomorsk and Murmansk.

According to a subsequent report (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2018/10/sunken-dry-dock-could-hamper-modernization-navy):

Quote
«It is not yet clear whether the floating dock at the 82nd shipyard, on which aircraft carrier «Admiral Kuznetsov» stood, will be raised», Aleksey Rakhmanov told Interfax.

According to the company director, the dock is now located on deep waters and a lifting operation «will be complicated and very expensive.»

«To lift the dock, which has a loading capacity of 80,000 ton, is in itself an operation that will cost no small money,» he underlines. He also does not exclude that the installation is significantly damaged.

«To say exactly whether it is possible to lift this dock can be done only after divers have studied the condition of the equipment,» he makes clear.

According to the shipyard, the water depths in the area of the dock are more than 60 meters.

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: DrTskoul on October 30, 2018, 11:57:43 PM
Goodbye dock... welcome artificial reef...
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Jim Hunt on January 12, 2019, 08:03:53 PM
According to The (Independent) Barents Observer (https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2019/01/two-new-built-tankers-are-crossing-arctic-mid-winter):

Quote
It is Sabetta, the new Russian LNG terminal in Yamal Peninsula, which is the destination of the two ships that now are breaking their way through the Northern Sea Route.

The «Boris Sokolov», a 214 meter long condensate tanker, on the 11 December set out from Nansha, China. One day later, it was joined by the «Boris Davydov», a 299 meter long LNG carrier.

The ships are now both on the list of vessels (http://nsra.ru/en/grafik_dvijeniya_po_smp.html?date=2019-01-10) sailing on the Northern Sea Route as provided by the Northern Sea Route Administration (NSRA).

The image is of the Eduard Toll:
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on January 12, 2019, 09:44:04 PM
U.S. Navy May Deploy Surface Ships to Arctic This Summer as Shipping Lanes Open Up
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/08/navy-may-deploy-surface-ships-arctic-summer-shipping-lanes-open

Quote
WASHINGTON, D.C. – The Navy may follow up October’s carrier strike group operations in the Arctic with another foray into the icy High North, with leadership considering sending a group of ships into a trans-Arctic shipping lane this summer, the Navy secretary said.

With three potential trans-Arctic routes potentially opening up, he said, the Navy’s discussion about Arctic presence has changed dramatically in the past two years.

“As an example, this summer, the [chief of naval operations] and I have talked about having some ships make the transit in the Arctic. It’s going to be a multi-service task – I think you’ll see the Coast Guard involved. We’re just fleshing it out right now. But what is the purpose of that? We have to learn what it’s like to operate in that environment,” he said.

Spencer said the Ticonderoga-class cruisers were the last class of Navy ships to be designed with steam systems to remove ice from the ship, and that newer classes are not ice-hardened or equipped with systems to remove ice.

A strategic port up in the Bering [Sea] area is being explored, but that would be a whole-of-government approach: that would be Coast Guard, Navy and [Department of] Commerce in that regard. But it’s an area we have to focus on, most definitely,” the secretary continued.
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2019/01/arctic-warms-us-navy-considering-summer-transit-bering-sea-port/154018/

Quote
... The Arctic is heating up and changing twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Some anticipate that it could regularly be virtually ice-free in summer  by 2040. That reality, coupled with Russia’s aggressiveness, is forcing the Navy to look at its ability to operate in there with thawed eyes. “You’re seeing the discussion change dramatically,” said Spencer. “We had the Navy’s [Arctic] Roadmap. We are adjusting that…and there’s more to come.” 

--------------------------

The Arctic is unforgiving ....

U.S. Amphibs Return to Iceland After Rough Seas Cause Damage, Few Minor Injuries 
https://news.usni.org/2018/10/24/amphib-ships-return-to-iceland-after-rough-seas-cause-damage-few-minor-injuries

Quote
Two of the three ships in the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group had to return to port in Reykjavik, Iceland, after heavy seas en route to Norway injured a few sailors and caused damage to one ship’s well deck.

According to a Navy news release, “the amphibious dock landing ship USS Gunston Hall (LSD-44) experienced heavy seas during the evening of Monday, October 22, 2018. As a result, the ship’s Landing Craft Utilities (LCU) and well deck experienced damage. The Gunston Hall is in port Reykjavik, Iceland for further assessment.”

Amphibious transport dock USS New York (LPD-21) also returned to port as a precautionary measure, according to the release.

All three ships had stopped in Iceland for a pre-exercise training event. The ships were delayed in arriving to Iceland due to heavy seas. Several sailors and Marines involved in the exercise told USNI News that many onboard were sea sick and that the ships altered their course to avoid even worse conditions. The Iwo Jima ARG was supposed to participate in an amphibious landing on Oct. 16, which was pushed to Oct. 17 due to the delay in arriving in Iceland. The landing was eventually canceled due to rough surf in the landing zone.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2019, 07:57:40 AM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Shared Humanity on January 13, 2019, 04:15:49 PM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: magnamentis on January 13, 2019, 07:06:55 PM
since i once played soccer in wintery moscow with some russian office clerks i think that even they would outclass any average soldier in the western hemisphere, not even talking about the toughness of those guys who live east of the Ural.

however since my first wife was russian and i know plenty of them very well my respect reached a very high level and not only when it comes to physical strenght, rarely seen so many extra smart guys among average citizens in one place and then since that time i stopped playing chess after getting aware how mediocre most of us play ;) not kidding, i considered myself a decent player once until i played up there during a few years.

similar things apply to chinese people and i think our western condescending approach towards other great countries will more sooner than later drop on our toes.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on January 13, 2019, 07:35:25 PM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

Trump is merely continuing a very long-term trend. The USA has relied on deterrence through air and missile defence systems capability and has neglected surface capability since WW2.

After a period of neglect for a number of years after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia now seeks to dominate the Arctic Ocean both militarily and economically- a policy restarted by Putin and very recently partly bankrolled by China.

The results can be seen in the ice-breaker fleets - compare Russia and the USA (+ some other countries) in the charts below.
Full list at https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Portals/9/DCO%20Documents/Office%20of%20Waterways%20and%20Ocean%20Policy/20170501%20major%20icebreaker%20chart.pdf?ver=2017-06-08-091723-907
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Human Habitat Index on January 14, 2019, 01:42:27 AM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

I believe Trump is an asset of supranational occult powers.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=irrbuaiUMVw
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on January 30, 2019, 07:20:01 PM
Ignore the surface ships, subs own the Arctic (http://www.hisutton.com/Analysis%20-Russia%20seeks%20submarine%20advantage%20in%20Arctic.html) ...

As The Arctic Warms, US Navy Considering Summer Transit, Bering Sea Port
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2019/01/arctic-warms-us-navy-considering-summer-transit-bering-sea-port/154018/

(https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/91zk7hThjGL._SX425_.jpg)

... The Arctic is heating up and changing twice as fast as the rest of the globe. Some anticipate that it could regularly be virtually ice-free in summer  by 2040. That reality, coupled with Russia’s aggressiveness, is forcing the Navy to look at its ability to operate in there with thawed eyes. “You’re seeing the discussion change dramatically,” said Spencer. “We had the Navy’s [Arctic] Roadmap (https://www.navy.mil/docs/USN_arctic_roadmap.pdf). We are adjusting that…and there’s more to come.

The Navy is meeting its current requirements for Arctic ops, according to GAO reports, but Spencer said that it was time to look beyond those. He said the U.S. is exploring the possibility of opening a strategic port in the Bering Strait.

------------------------------

US Navy Plans To Send More Ships Into The Arctic As It Looks To Establish New Polar Port
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/25875/us-navy-plans-to-send-more-ships-into-the-arctic-as-it-looks-to-establish-new-polar-port

... “A strategic port up in the Bering [Sea] area is being explored, but that would be a whole-of-government approach: that would be Coast Guard, Navy and [Department of] Commerce in that regard,” Spencer explained. “But it’s an area we have to focus on, most definitely.”

... Though the Navy is well aware of the strategic importance of the Arctic, and has increasingly made it a priority issue, the service is up against a number of issues that might make it more difficult to expand its presence in the near-term. For one, it has no icebreakers and the U.S. government as a whole only owns two such ships.

.... But beyond the environmental hazards and limited infrastructure, many of the Navy’s non-ice-capable surface ships are not necessarily equipped to conduct protracted operations in extreme cold weather conditions, to begin with. The Ticonderoga-class cruisers, the first of which got laid down in 1980, was the last of its surface ship designs to feature a purpose-built steam de-icing system. This is apparently not a feature on Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, which form the core of the service’s combat surface fleets.

Ice buildup on weapon systems, radomes, antennas, and other features on the Navy’s ships could limit their functionality or even cause damage. Without specialized de-icing features, a crew might have to spend significant effort manually removing the ice without causing any additional harm. That's to say nothing of the need to clear flight decks and helicopter landing pads on carriers, amphibious ships, and other warships.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/a2/b4/88/a2b488325a47bf8846f62bead6c00d6f.jpg)

----------------------------------------

Navy May Deploy Surface Ships to Arctic This Summer as Shipping Lanes Open Up
https://news.usni.org/2019/01/08/navy-may-deploy-surface-ships-arctic-summer-shipping-lanes-open

... With three potential trans-Arctic routes potentially opening up, he said, the Navy’s discussion about Arctic presence has changed dramatically in the past two years.

“As an example, this summer, the [chief of naval operations] and I have talked about having some ships make the transit in the Arctic. It’s going to be a multi-service task – I think you’ll see the Coast Guard involved. We’re just fleshing it out right now. But what is the purpose of that? We have to learn what it’s like to operate in that environment,” he said.

Spencer said the Ticonderoga-class cruisers were the last class of Navy ships to be designed with steam systems to remove ice from the ship, and that newer classes are not ice-hardened or equipped with systems to remove ice.

When the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group operated north of the Arctic Circle for several weeks this fall, the carrier itself handled the environment well, but its smaller escort ships and the supply ships the carrier relied on had a tougher time in the high sea states and icy waters. Similarly, when the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group sailed from Iceland to Norway in October, the larger amphibious assault ship made the journey safely, but the smaller dock landing ship was damaged in heavy seas and had to turn back.

-----------------------------------

U.S. Warship Stuck in Montreal Since December Due to Ice Resumes Trip Home
https://saultonline.com/2018/03/u-s-warship-stuck-in-montreal-since-december-due-to-ice-resumes-trip-home/

MONTREAL — An American warship stuck in Montreal since Christmas Eve has finally resumed its trip to its home port in Florida, the U.S. Navy confirmed on Saturday.

The USS Little Rock was commissioned in Buffalo, N.Y., on Dec. 16 but was trapped by ice at the Port of Montreal less than two weeks into its maiden voyage.

The warship was equipped with temporary heaters and 16 de-icers designed to reduce ice accumulation on the hull, and the crew was provided with cold-weather clothing in light of the change to their winter plans.

(https://i.cbc.ca/1.4501115.1516801602!/fileImage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/original_780/uss-little-rock-montreal.JPG)

------------------------------

Zukunft: Changing Arctic Could Lead to Armed U.S. Icebreakers in Future Fleet
https://news.usni.org/2017/05/18/zukunft-changing-arctic-environment-could-lead-to-more-armed-icebreakers-in-future-fleet

Adm. Paul Zukunft told the House Appropriations homeland security subcommittee today that three of each icebreakers was the shipbuilding requirement determined in a study five years ago and would still meet today’s requirements.

However, he noted that “ice has retreated at record rates” since then, which makes oil and gas reserves more accessible – which creates a particularly thorny problem for the United States, which would like to claim these resources for its own but hasn’t ratified the U.N. Law of the Sea Convention treaty that would validate this claim.

We have sovereign interests at stake up there as well. We have seen China, for example, with their icebreaker (in the region)... next thing we know we see a Chinese mobile offshore drilling unit going into the extended continental shelf to extract what otherwise would be U.S. oil.

----------------------------

Russia May Put Lasers on Its New Icebreaker Ships
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/news/a27447/russia-new-icebreaker-lasers/

Last April the Russian Navy ordered for two ships for Project 23550, the Ivan Papanin-class icebreakers. Construction of the first began last September at JSC Admiralty Shipyards in St. Petersburg. The two ships are designed to function as icebreakers, tugboats, and patrol vessels.

According to Janes, the two ships will displace about 8,500 tons, about the size of modern destroyers, but much of that weight is due to the reinforced hull needed by icebreakers to plow through thick sea ice. Dimensionally, the Papanin class will be only about the size of a frigate. The ships will carry one AK-176MA 3-inch multipurpose deck gun (76.2-millimeter), a Kamov Ka-27 search and rescue helicopter, and eight Kalibr anti-ship missiles or longer-range cruise missile variants. The ships will be powered by diesel electric engines mounted in azipods generating a combined horsepower of 9,160 horsepower, and will carry bow thrusters for precise maneuvering.

According to Russian state media Sputnik News, the Ivan Papanin ships could be outfitted with lasers in the near future. Later this year Russian engineers will test a 30-kilowatt laser on the icebreaker Dikson, with an eye toward eventually fielding a 200-kilowatt seagoing laser. The article claims the icebreaker will only use lasers for ice cutting, allowing the ships to get around the arctic faster.

(https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e0/9c/5b/e09c5bd6366cf0f4151fbeff681d1d2f.jpg)

----------------------------

Russia Designs Ice-Breaking Nuclear-Powered Submarine for Arctic Shelf Operations
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/01/russia-designs-ice-breaking-nuclear-powered-submarine-arctic-shelf-operations

A vessel that can both crush through the ice and dive beneath it when working on extraction of mineral resources from the Arctic seabed.

It is the design bureau Malachite, famous for developing several classes of Russian navy nuclear powered submarines, that has presented a new 82 meters long submarine with ice-breaking capabilities.

With its special bow and strengthened hull, the submarine is said to be able to navigate through 1,2 meter thick ice in surface position. The vessel will hold Arc5 ice-class according to Russian classification.

Malachite says on its site that the submarine is aimed at working safely beneath the ice without worrying about waves, wind or moving ice on the surface. Fields of operations include both oil and gas subsea installations as well as potential future extraction of other mineral resources to be mined from the Arctic sea floor.

Also Malachite’s Arctic submarine is designed to carry mini-submarines that could work independently from the mother-submarine.

(https://thebarentsobserver.com/sites/default/files/malachite_sub.jpg)

--------------------------------

As the Ice Melts, Nuclear Submarines Train for Arctic War
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/xw5b4d/icex-2018-arctic-war-training

... focusing on the GIUK Gap (the sea between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK) may fall short of the challenge NATO now faces.

For much of the Cold War, the Soviet navy lacked land-attack cruise missiles and would have had to leave its "bastion" in the Barents Sea in order to engage NATO forces, which made the GIUK Gap an important choke point at that time, according to Steven Wills, a military historian and former US Navy surface-warfare officer.

But with the development of sub-launched missiles — especially the modern Kaliber cruise missile — "Today's Russian Navy can remain within its Barents bastion and still launch accurate attacks against ships in the Norwegian Sea and NATO land targets without leaving these protected waters,"

"The real 'Gap' where NATO must focus its deterrent action is the Greenland, Svalbard, North Cape line at the northern limit of the Norwegian and and Greenland Seas," he writes. "It is again time to consider deterrent action and potential naval warfare in the 'High North.'"

The US, Russia and China are stepping up their use of submarines, drones, sensors and other undersea military technology. This is making the security of assets such as undersea internet cables and coastal military facilities an area of growing concern.

-----------------------------------

The Arctic is Unforgiving ...

Too fast, Vasili. Too fast!
https://youtu.be/mjENAhPeUtA
http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/26178/dramatic-video-of-russian-tu-22m3-crash-landing-in-bad-weather-emerges
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on February 27, 2019, 06:38:09 PM
Novatek Wants Arctic Shipping Route Open All Year From Around 2023
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-novatek-arctic/novatek-wants-arctic-shipping-route-open-all-year-from-around-2023-idUSKCN1QG2C5

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek wants to use nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route, a shipping path traversing the Arctic to Asia, open all year long for its liquefied natural gas (LNG), a top executive said on Wednesday.

“Our plan is to keep the Northern Sea Route open twelve months a year in 2023 to 25 with 100-megawatt-hour nuclear icebreakers,” Novatek Chief Financial Officer Mark Gyetvay told delegates at an energy conference.

Novatek operates the Yamal LNG facilities in Russia’s Arctic north, which have already produced 11 million tonnes of LNG since starting production in December 2017.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on February 27, 2019, 07:50:11 PM
Novatek Wants Arctic Shipping Route Open All Year From Around 2023
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-novatek-arctic/novatek-wants-arctic-shipping-route-open-all-year-from-around-2023-idUSKCN1QG2C5

LONDON (Reuters) - Russian gas producer Novatek wants to use nuclear icebreakers to keep the Northern Sea Route, a shipping path traversing the Arctic to Asia, open all year long for its liquefied natural gas (LNG), a top executive said on Wednesday.

“Our plan is to keep the Northern Sea Route open twelve months a year in 2023 to 25 with 100-megawatt-hour nuclear icebreakers,” Novatek Chief Financial Officer Mark Gyetvay told delegates at an energy conference.

Novatek operates the Yamal LNG facilities in Russia’s Arctic north, which have already produced 11 million tonnes of LNG since starting production in December 2017.
Russia is building a couple of 30,000 tonne nuclear ice breakers. The attached image might be out of date already as far as Russia's plans for more icebreakers is concerned.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on May 29, 2019, 11:46:52 PM
Meet 'Ural,' Russia's New Nuclear-Powered Icebreaking Behemoth 
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a27615565/ural-russia-icebreaker/

... The ship, Ural, is the third in the class of three Project 22220 icebreakers. The ship was constructed by the Baltic Shipyards of St. Petersburg and will be handed over to Rosatom, Russia’s nuclear agency, in 2021. The Project 22220 ships are 173 meters (567 feet) long and 34 meters (111 feet) wide, making them the largest icebreakers ever constructed. The ships displace a massive 33,000 tons, likely due to large ballast tanks built inside the ship that allow it to ride higher or lower in the water as necessary.

The Ural, and its two sister ships, are each powered by two RITM-200 nuclear reactors generating a total of 350 megawatts. That’s almost five times as much power generated by the turbines on the destroyer USS Zumwalt. This, combined with a thick hull, allows the ships to break through ice up to 3 meters (9.8 feet) thick. The RITM-200, according to Russian state media, will also power Russia’s next generation aircraft carrier, the Project 23000 “Shtorm”.

Russia has built three Project 22220s: Arktika, Sibir, and now Ural, and will sign contracts for two more by the end of the year. According to The Guardian, Putin has promised Russia will operate at least 13 heavy-duty icebreakers by 2035, nine of which will be nuclear powered.

(https://hips.hearstapps.com/hmg-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/images/people-attend-a-ceremony-to-launch-the-ural-nuclear-powered-news-photo-1146175057-1559079482.jpg)

Moscow is building such a large icebreaker fleet in order to support what it calls the Northern Sea Route. As global temperatures increase and Arctic ice continues to shrink a shipping route roughly following Russia’s northern coastline becomes increasingly tenable. This route would bypass Europe, Africa and Asia altogether, cutting a long, expensive shipping route down considerably. Such a route would also be easy for Russia to control, politically and militarily.

Meanwhile, the U.S. icebreaker fleet is down to just aging ships, the larger Polar Star and smaller, newer Healy. The Coast Guard plans to expand the fleet to six ships, three larger icebreakers and three medium size ships, with the first heavy icebreaker due to enter service in 2024.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on June 05, 2019, 05:30:10 PM
USS Harry S. Truman Conducts Flight Operations in Arctic Circle
https://www.military.com/video/uss-harry-s-truman-conducts-flight-operations-arctic-circle

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) conducts flight operations in Arctic Circle. For the first time in nearly 30 years, a U.S. aircraft carrier has entered the Arctic Circle. Accompanied by select ships from Carriers Strike Group Eight (CSG-8), Harry S. Truman traveled north to demonstrate the flexibility and toughness of U.S. naval forces through high end warfare training with regional allies and partners.

https://youtu.be/Tubo4lr4Cz0

Three Russian Nuclear-Powered Subs Surface Through Arctic Ice in Drills
http://tass.com/defense/1061451

The Project 885 lead multirole nuclear-powered submarine and two Project 667BDRM strategic subs practiced surfacing in open water patches amid Arctic ice during drills in May, the press office of Russia’s Northern Fleet reported on Monday.

"The underwater nuclear-powered missile cruisers Tula, Novomoskovsk and Severodvinsk were involved in performing missions under the Arctic Ocean’s ice. The submariners practiced a whole range of under-ice sailing tasks, including the search for an open water patch in the designated area and surfacing through ice," the press office said in a statement.

During their underwater missions in the Arctic, the crews of the Northern Fleet’s nuclear-powered submarines also conducted practical research for employing weapons under the ice, the statement says.

The drills were held in May as part of the planned training of the Fleet’s forces during the winter training period, the press office said.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Espen on June 05, 2019, 05:37:37 PM
I wonder how airworthy that Super Hornet is after that shower?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: magnamentis on June 05, 2019, 05:53:19 PM
USS Harry S. Truman Conducts Flight Operations in Arctic Circle
https://www.military.com/video/uss-harry-s-truman-conducts-flight-operations-arctic-circle

The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) conducts flight operations in Arctic Circle. For the first time in nearly 30 years, a U.S. aircraft carrier has entered the Arctic Circle. Accompanied by select ships from Carriers Strike Group Eight (CSG-8), Harry S. Truman traveled north to demonstrate the flexibility and toughness of U.S. naval forces through high end warfare training with regional allies and partners.


i love this kind of nature's demonstrations of power. reminds me when i was the only windsurfer still out with flying waters (>8 Beaufort) kind of memories when we were young LOL

considering the gargantuan size of those vessels it's incredibly impressing how one of them becomes a playball of the ocean given the right conditions.

yes i thought the same, after all salty water is not really one of the recommended ingredients for high-tech LOL

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2019, 01:46:01 PM
From P-maker on the "Climate change, the ocean, agriculture, and FOOD" thread.
Quote
Since frozen fish is also some kind of food, I decided to put this piece of news here:

https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/shipping-company-maersk-return-arctic-northern-sea-route-summer

Apparently, the World's largest container carrier - Maersk - is about to enter negotiations with Russia's Atomflot about escort along a possible new Northern Sea Route. It seems likely that frozen fish from newly open Arctic waters may be one of the selling points...

While frozen fish may be a significant commodity for this particular venture, I don't think  is a significant part of the long-term equation under consideration by MAERSK.

It's more about MAERSK being more convinced about the viability of the Russian Arctic Sea Route at least for a few months of the year, especially as Russia's commitment to very large icebreakers is a reality, not blah blah (note well, US of A).

Shipping Company Maersk to Return to Arctic Northern Sea Route This Summer
Quote
Maersk’s position on the economic potential of shipping cargo along Russia’s Northern Sea Route (NSR) continues to evolve. While the company, the largest shipping operator in the world, as recently as last month discounted its interest in operating along the route it now confirms to HNN that it is currently exploring the possibility of offering a service on the route in cooperation with Russia’s Atomflot.

Maersk sent the first-ever container ship along the route last summer in what the company then called a “one-off trial voyage.” Following that trial the shipping operator categorically denied any commercial interest in the route and stated that it did not see the NSR as an alternative to its usual routes and that new services were planned according to customer demands and trading patterns.

It appears that these demands and patterns have now changed. In conversations with HNN the company stated that it “has experienced a growing demand for transport of goods from the Far East to West Russia, which we are currently exploring the possibility of offering together with Atomflot.”

While Maersk declined to provide additional details, Russian shipping industry sources and news reports confirm that the company does in fact plan to begin offering a seasonal service this summer with several trips along the NSR.

According to the company’s CEO Søren Skou, who spoke to reporters at last week’s International Economic Forum (IEF) in St. Petersburg, Maersk is exploring the possibility of cargo deliveries between ports of the Far East and St. Petersburg during third quarter of 2019. “Basically it will be Russian goods that will be shipped from the east of the country to the west and vice versa, for example, frozen fish or imported goods from China,” he explained to reporters at the IEF, according to Russian news reports. A Maersk spokesperson said she was unable to provide confirmation of these plans.

Shipping experts emphasize the significant nature of this development. “If true, it would certainly be a departure from Maersk’s long-held public position that the NSR is not a viable east-west alternative to the Suez,” explains Ryan Uljua, Senior Fellow at The Arctic Institute.
____________________________________________________________
ps: The US of A does not have any warships with polar capability. (The coastguard icebreakers are very lightly armed). Indeed the new LNG tankers being built for Russia have far greater icebreaking capability and hull strength. I believe modern warships depend on missile defence systems, not hull strength.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on June 17, 2019, 08:52:10 PM
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Mind you, the LNG tankers might start coming out of Yamal before it is really open.
But that load of frozen fish might have to wait.

Might not be long.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on June 22, 2019, 03:35:47 PM
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Attached are 21 Univ Bremen map and ESS, Laptev and  Kara area graphs.

Torching of the ESS not showing much in the 5 day area data.
Laptev is falling to bits.
Kara losing area very much in 2010's average mode.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 22, 2019, 03:37:24 PM
2 weeks?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on June 22, 2019, 04:04:52 PM
2 weeks?
Using a computer-assisted heuristic process my considered prediction is
'=RANDBETWEEN(7,30)
12
30
18
10
15
Days.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: b_lumenkraft on June 22, 2019, 04:28:34 PM
Accurate!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on June 27, 2019, 03:23:45 PM
When will the Russian Arctic be open for traffic?

Attached are Univ Bremen map and ESS, Laptev and  Kara area graphs for 26 June.

The Kara Sea now losing area at a rate above 2010's average mode and below 2010's average area. Still needs to melt out a bit more to make a clear channel. Just a few days should do it.

The Laptev Sea after a short hiccup looks like it is set to continue falling to bits. |The Laptev bite makes a wide open channel for traffic.

The ESS is the big question, full up ice (including the western edge of the Chukchi). Area loss has only just started, bringing area to just below the 2010's average. The weather forecast is problematical, the land being very hot for the next few days but perhaps cooling rapidly next week. Will sufficient ice be lost near the coast to open the route in the last 4 days of June?  A big ask.
______________________________________________________________
Not that will stop the Russians. Those new LNG tankers (a dozen or more) can take on ice at east 1 metre thick, and Russia's icebreakers have to earn their living.

And over the next few years
- The Ural and its two future companions, and after that,
- The Lider class,
     4.5 metre ice? no problem.
     2m ice? Cut a channel 55 metres wide at 12 knots.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 03, 2019, 04:09:58 PM
the Kara is being cleared out.
The Laptev is almost open enough already

The ESS, if anything,  may block the opening of this route.
But now it looks as if after a late start the ESS is strongly melting.

So my guess is the route will be open this month and before the NW Passage.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Stephan on July 03, 2019, 10:43:12 PM
The huge Laptev bite seems to enable an open route N of the New Siberian Islands rather than open waters south of these islands through fast(?) ice zones??
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 08, 2019, 03:39:38 PM
I predicted this Russian route would be open before the end of July. A note on progress to ensuring nature does what I told it to do follows. (Being open for LNG tankers with ice-breaking capability is a cheat and don't count).

The Kara is being cleared out most satisfactorily..
The Laptev is almost open enough already and further melting will give alternative shipping routes,
The ESS, if anything, looked as if it may block the opening of this route. But now after a late start the ESS is strongly melting and soon will be wide open off the shores of Russia.

So my guess conviction is the route will be open this month and before the NW Passage (as usual).
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sterks on July 08, 2019, 04:07:11 PM
I agree, and the Laptev/ESS are going to be briefly warmed up again until Friday or so, not like June but should accelerate the crumbling down.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Dr Freeze on July 08, 2019, 05:30:58 PM
Does anyone think that there is a chance this year that a third route might open up this year, the third route being the ice free zone just north of the Canadian arctic islands all the way to north of Greenland.  Personally I don't think I would want to travel it in case the winds shift and blew the ice back towards the coast.  But it seems like this year so much of the MYI that clings to these islands have lifted off.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sterks on July 08, 2019, 06:05:56 PM
Does anyone think that there is a chance this year that a third route might open up this year, the third route being the ice free zone just north of the Canadian arctic islands all the way to north of Greenland.  Personally I don't think I would want to travel it in case the winds shift and blew the ice back towards the coast.  But it seems like this year so much of the MYI that clings to these islands have lifted off.
Bear in mind that any wind pushing toward Fram would induce an ice drift, and the drift a subsequent Coriolis force on the ice toward the Greenland/CAA wall. And more often than not that is the prevailing wind so that's another reason why the pack stays stuck to Greenland/CAA

Also there is an underlying ocean current toward Fram that causes the same effect on the traveling ice.
Reversing these things seems unlikely
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Dr Freeze on July 08, 2019, 08:29:31 PM
while I agree with what you are saying it just seems that the ice keeps lifting off the coast there this year. (https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2F&hash=35d7d5d7526c9897dfb55501e320295a)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 10, 2019, 04:03:42 PM
I predicted this Russian route would be open before the end of July, specifically in the second half of the month.. A note on progress to ensuring nature does what I told it to do follows. (Being open for LNG tankers with ice-breaking capability is a cheat and don't count).

The Kara is being cleared out most satisfactorily..
The Laptev is almost open enough already and further melting will give alternative shipping routes,
The ESS, if anything, looked as if it may block the opening of this route. But now after a late start the ESS is strongly melting and looks like it will very soon be wide open off the shores of Russia.

So my concern is that the route will be open by the 15th July - too early, (and several weeks before the NW Passage (as usual)).

At this rate Putin will have 40+ icebreakers with nowt to do for three months. Could he lend some to the US Navy to open up the NW Passage?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Thawing Thunder on July 11, 2019, 04:55:23 PM
The passage as of July, 10th. No comment ...
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: oren on July 11, 2019, 06:13:22 PM
Amazingly it seems open from end to end. Where is jim Hunt to give a final confirming verdict?
And if true, surely this is the earliest on record?
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 11, 2019, 06:16:57 PM
Amazingly it seems open from end to end. Where is jim Hunt to give a final confirming verdict?
And if true, surely this is the earliest on record?
I looked at the University of Bremen images and thought there were still a couple of small maybes.
So I didn't post, thinking tomorrow would settle it.

Anyway, my prediction that belonged to me (2nd half of July) looks like being WRONG.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Thawing Thunder on July 11, 2019, 09:34:25 PM
There are still some patches of ice that probably will come and go on the satellite images but within three or four days everything should be done.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Tom on July 12, 2019, 12:45:54 PM
It looks open on the Bremen concentration map, but in worldview today (12th July) there is still quite a large chunk in the ESS that stretches to the coast.  It doesn't look in great shape, so I don't think it will be that long now.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2FESS_20190712.jpg&hash=c974945caac89370b7e7c8c60a0ab773)

Edit: reduced image size (oops)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 14, 2019, 01:25:52 PM
That blasted cyclone plonked in the middle of the Arctic Ocean is producing strong counter-clockwise winds at and along the Russian coast-line. It has shoved a lump of ice in the way. (see image attached). Could block the route for a few days until melt disposes of the clutter.

Skipper! Back to port!

Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on July 19, 2019, 05:05:56 PM
That blasted cyclone plonked in the middle of the Arctic Ocean is still producing counter-clockwise winds at and along the Russian coast-line.

So the ice is melting but lumps of ice keep on getting shoved ice in the way.  Could block the route for a few days more until melt finally disposes of the clutter.

Skipper! Back to Stay in port!

gif plays 3 times then stops.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Paddy on July 27, 2019, 06:20:50 AM
Looks pretty open now: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

(https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png)

Only one point where it's even pinched small at all.

Incidentally, a LNG tanker has just set a new record for northern sea route transit speed with cargo on board and no icebreaker suppport https://tass.com/economy/1070320
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: charles_oil on July 30, 2019, 01:33:56 PM
More detailed report on LNG transit:

https://gcaptain.com/lng-carrier-vladimir-rusanov-opens-northern-sea-route-summer-navigation-season/ (https://gcaptain.com/lng-carrier-vladimir-rusanov-opens-northern-sea-route-summer-navigation-season/)

If it takes 1/2 the time of a traditional route - it will no doubt become the norm.

https://www.total.com/en/infographics/yamal-lng-northern-sea-route-cuts-journey-time-half (https://www.total.com/en/infographics/yamal-lng-northern-sea-route-cuts-journey-time-half)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: binntho on July 30, 2019, 02:04:18 PM
Great footage of the Yamal sailing through some real ice. At around 1:00 the ice seems surprizingly thick, with snow drifts and pressure ridges. Great to see what it looks like in real life, as opposed to pixels on satellit photos.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bKaVhXn49xY
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: blumenkraft on July 30, 2019, 05:14:41 PM
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: binntho on July 30, 2019, 05:31:46 PM
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?
Well, yes, ice is flexible up to a point, as can be seen in glaciers that flow like molasses.

Glass plates can be bent up to a certain point, so I'm sure that a cover of ice a few tens of centimeters thick can also be bent to a certain extent without breaking.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sebastian Jones on July 30, 2019, 05:33:38 PM
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.

New thin sea ice is quite flexible. When we were kids we would go out on fresh ice, about 5cm thick and waves would propagate simply from our walking across it. If we stood still, a noticeable bowl would form. So, bow waves in new sea is normal.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: binntho on July 30, 2019, 05:35:45 PM
Wait a minute. What's that?

How is the ice so flexible, clearly showing the bow wave of the ship?

Can someone elaborate on that a little?

Thanks so much for sharing, Binntho. What a stunning video.

New thin sea ice is quite flexible. When we were kids we would go out on fresh ice, about 5cm thick and waves would propagate simply from our walking across it. If we stood still, a noticeable bowl would form. So, bow waves in new sea is normal.
Wow!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: blumenkraft on July 30, 2019, 05:41:49 PM
Thanks so much, guys. I knew it is flexible, but that flexible... WOW!
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Steven on July 31, 2019, 10:20:13 PM
Some interesting comments from Robert Rohde on twitter, based on NSIDC sea ice concentration data:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1156567447228637184

Quote from: Robert Rohde
As of July 30th, the Northeastern Passage through the Arctic Ocean is now open for the 2019 season, as the sea ice has just barely pulled away from the Russian coast.

This is the third earliest opening date in the NSIDC satellite observations going back to 1979.


Quote from: Robert Rohde
Periods during the satellite era when the Arctic Ocean has been passable without the use of ice-breaking ships.

Such periods have become much more common since 2008, and the start of the 2019 season is the third earliest in the satellite record.

(https://i.imgur.com/ZqMFQlt.jpg)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Gumbercules on August 02, 2019, 10:28:11 PM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

We do not have a Russian asset in the White House. Enough fake news.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Sterks on August 02, 2019, 10:56:27 PM
It is obvious that Russia completely outclasses the US of A when it comes to military capability in the Arctic.

And will continue to do so as long as we have a Russian asset in the White House.

We do not have a Russian asset in the White House. Enough fake news.
The threads about politics of this Forum are elsewhere (I personally don’t recommend them, but politics out of here, please)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: petm on August 02, 2019, 11:42:03 PM
The very phrase 'fake news' is straight out of Vladimir's playbook. Please delete your post and I will delete mine.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Hefaistos on August 29, 2019, 01:20:05 PM

"The Arctic shortcut that connects Asia and Europe is open and ice-free and shipping appears smooth, including for vessels without ice class standards.

The last pieces of frozen water vanished in mid-August and data shows that the whole route is now free of ice.
...
The Northern Sea Route is a top priority for the Kremlin. President Putin said that he wanted annual shipments on the route to reach 80 million tons in 2024.

In 2018, shipments amounted to about 20 million tons, and estimates made by the Natural Resources Ministry predicted a total of 30 million tons by the end of 2019."

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2019/08/29/ice-on-russias-northern-sea-route-has-disappeared-opening-up-arctic-shipping-lanes-a67067

Russian site with info on the traffic on NSR, weather conditions, where they have put their buoyes etc:
http://www.nsra.ru/en/home.html#
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Phil. on August 29, 2019, 08:31:49 PM
The Bremen is just entering the Arctic Ocean on the second leg of its circumnavigation of the Arctic having just completed the NW Passage leg.
https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position (https://www.hl-cruises.com/ships/ms-bremen/explore-ship/webcam-ships-position)
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: Tom_Mazanec on August 29, 2019, 10:40:17 PM
There is no ice left on Northern Sea Route
But the number of ships that set course for the Arctic route still remains low.
https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/08/there-no-ice-left-russias-northern-sea-route
Quote
Furthermore, only a limited part of the ships now sailing on the route actually carry goods. The official NSR list of vessels shows that almost half are tugs and support and service vessels, most of which are involved in oil and gas-related activities. They either assist in the ongoing well drilling operations of rigs “Arkticheskaya”, “Amazon” and “Nan Hai Bao Hai”, or engage in operations related to the Yamal LNG and the Sabetta sea terminal.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: vox_mundi on November 01, 2019, 11:52:43 AM
Russia Is Now Sending Its Main Crude Oil Through the Arctic
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-10-31/russia-s-urals-crude-flows-through-arctic-sea-for-the-first-time

Two oil tankers, between them carrying about 1.5 million barrels of Urals crude from the port of Primorsk in western Russia, sailed through the Arctic ocean to China in recent weeks, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s the first time that’s happened since at least 2011, according to the Northern Sea Route Information Office.

Shipments of commodities and other goods across the top of Russia doubled to about 20 million tons last year with oil and gas dominating.

The crude oil carried by the two tankers would usually have traveled via Egypt’s Suez Canal, or around Africa, to reach Asia. One of the vessel’s voyages took about a month. On the normal route, shipments can take longer than 50 days and require cargo-transfers at sea onto bigger supertankers that are best-suited to such long-distance voyages. Other crude oil, shipped from Russia’s Arctic Sea ports, has already been using the trade route.
Title: Re: Northern Sea Route thread
Post by: gerontocrat on December 05, 2019, 07:51:10 PM
Russia' Arctic Developments...

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic-industry-and-energy/2019/10/shipping-northern-sea-route-40
Shipping on Northern Sea Route up 40%
Goods volumes are expected to reach 29 million tons in course of 2019, says leader of Russia’s Northern Sea Route Administration.

October 04, 2019
Quote
According to Nikolay Monko, shipments on the Arctic route in the first nine months of the year amounted to 23,37 million tons. By the end of the year, the volumes are likely to reach 29 million tons, the acting head of the Northern Sea Route Administration said in this week’s RAO/СIS Offshore conference in St. Petersburg.

The shipping volumes constitute an increase of more than 40 percent from last year. In 2018, a total of 20,18 million tons of goods were transported on the route.

The lion’s share of NSR ship traffic is related to the liquified natural gas produced by Novatek. The company’s Yamal LNG is expected to produce more than 16 million tons in 2019.

Few transit shipments
Despite the major increase in Arctic shipping, transit shipments between east and west on the Northern Sea Route remain low. In the first nine months of 2019, a total of 441,800 tons was shipped on the route. Like in the previous years, the key share of the transit shipments was provided by Chinese company COSCO.

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/arctic/2019/10/putin-wants-new-connection-between-arctic-coast-and-indian-ocean/

Putin wants new connection between Arctic coast and Indian Ocean
The construction of a railway line to Sabetta is what is needed, the president argues.

Quote
«Together, we must contemplate about how to speed up the formation of an Eurasian transport network, a true grid of latitudinal and longitudinal routes,» Putin underlined in his speech and subsequently underlined that the Arctic must be part of the picture.

«One perspective route is between the Arctic, Siberia and Asia,» he said and added that the missing link in the picture is a railway line to Sabetta, the new Arctic seaport on the northern coast of peninsula Yamal.

«The idea is to connect the ports on the Northern Sea Route with the ports of the Pacific and Indian Oceans by means of transport arterials through Eastern Siberia, the heartlands of Eurasia,» the president told the conference participants.

Among them were Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, King of Jordan Abdullah II, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Filipinian leader Rodrigo Duterte

«In order to implement this idea, we intend to speed up the construction of railway lines to the port of Sabetta,» Putin said.

The connection is part of the major Northern Latitudinal Passage project and is aimed a boosting shipments across Russian Arctic waters.

A 170 km long railway line to Sabetta is projected to connect with an existing line to Bovanenkovo, the natural gas hub in the region. The Northern Latitudinal Passage also includes a 17 km long bridge across the Ob River, from Salekhard to Labytnangi, and a railway line to Novy Urengoy in Western Siberia.

More than 700 km of new railway must be built to complete the whole project. The lion’s share of the new infrastructure will have to be built on the permafrost and in harsh Arctic conditions.

Several government ministries have previously made clear that the Northern Latitudinal Passage will be completed in year 2024 and that the goods volumes on the new railway ultimately will boost shipments on the Northern Sea Route by up to eight million tons by 2025.

Needed investments are estimated to more than 230 billion rubles (€3 billion). A major share of it is to be covered by private companies.